Mon, 20 November 2023
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Home prices are up 4.5% annually through Q3. It’s the fastest growth rate in months.
Three out of ten renters are now age 55+, the most ever. Older renters are good for you: lower turnover, more quiet, more savings & income, and lower regulation compared to assisted living.
Overall US population growth is slowing, from 1.2% a generation ago to 0.5% today. It’s expected to grow until 2080.
I discuss the DOJ crackdown on the NAR and real estate commissions. 1.6 million real estate agents could lose their jobs.
Apartment building rate caps have become super-expensive.
One of our real estate Investment Coaches, Naresh, joins us from Florida.
Naresh tells us how to get 5.75% mortgage rates on new-build Florida income property at GREwebinars.com
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The housing market stats (00:02:52)
Discussion about the current state of the housing market, including the 45% increase in home prices and the reasons for continued home price support.
Home price appreciation forecasts (00:05:28)
Talks about the predictions for future home price appreciation, with both CoreLogic and NAR expecting a 26% rise in home prices next year.
The impact of older renters (00:10:08)
Explains why older renters are desirable for property owners and landlords, highlighting their lower turnover rate and stability.
The Aging Population and Older Renters (00:11:15)
Discusses the benefits of older renters, such as lower mobility, more savings and income, and low regulation.
US Population Projection and Immigration (00:12:30)
Examines the projected population decline in the US by 2100 and the importance of immigration for continued growth.
Housing Demand and Household Size (00:17:12)
Explores the trend of fewer people living in each household and its impact on housing demand.
The timestamp's title (00:22:05)
Rising Costs of Rate Caps for Apartment Buildings
Discussion on how the cost of rate caps for larger apartment buildings has become prohibitively expensive.
The timestamp's title (00:25:23)
Real Estate Market Trends and Slowdown
Insights on the current state of the real estate market, including a slowdown in November and leveling off of home values and rents.
The timestamp's title (00:28:28)
Opportunity in Real Estate Market in 2024
Predictions for the real estate market in 2024, including a potential bottoming out of the market and a decrease in mortgage rates.
The decline in home values and the health of the economy (00:32:58)
Discussion on the decline in home values and the health of the economy, with reference to the 2008 financial crisis and current housing supply.
Short-term rentals and the potential for a decline (00:34:14)
Exploration of the decline in short-term rentals due to a decrease in travel and corporate expenses.
The impact of mortgage interest rates on home prices (00:35:19)
Analysis of the relationship between mortgage interest rates, economic slowdowns, and home prices, with a focus on potential rate cuts and their effects on the housing market.
The Florida In-Migration Stat (00:43:53)
Florida's astounding population growth and becoming the second most valuable property market in the US.
The Rate Buy Down Courtesy of the Builders (00:44:23)
Explaining the options of a 5.75% rate or the 2-2-4 program for property buyers in Florida.
Disclaimer and Closing (00:46:02)
A disclaimer about the show and a mention of the sponsor, Get Rich Education.
Complete Episode Transcript:
Speaker 1 (00:00:01) - Welcome to I'm your host Keith Weinhold told how price appreciation is up 4.5%, but there are signs that it is slowing down. Finally, learn more about our upcoming live event that you can join from the comfort of your own home today on get Rich education. When you want the best real estate and finance info. The modern internet experience limits your free articles access, and it's replete with paywalls. And you've got pop ups and push notifications and cookies. Disclaimers. Oh, at no other time in history has it been more vital to place nice, clean, free content into your hands that actually adds no hype value to your life? See, this is the golden age of quality newsletters, and I write every word of hours myself. It's got a dash of humor and it's to the point to get the letter. It couldn't be more simple text to 66866. And when you start the free newsletter, you'll also get my one hour fast real estate course completely free. It's called the Don't Quit Your Day dream letter and it wires your mind for wealth.
Speaker 1 (00:01:17) - Make sure you read it text to 66866. Text 266866.
Speaker 2 (00:01:29) - You're listening to the show that has created more financial freedom than nearly any show in the world. This is get rich education.
Speaker 1 (00:01:45) - We're going to go from Roxbury, Connecticut to Roxbury, Wisconsin, and across 188 nations worldwide. This is get rich education. I'm Keith Weinhold, GRE founder host of this very show since 2014, longtime real estate investor and Forbes Real Estate Council member. In fact, check out my latest article in Forbes for my work in research on the housing market. What we do here is by investment property with the bank's money, pay the debt with the tenants money, and then well, that's about it. In a sense. We enjoy life mostly. There will be some bumps along the way. The devil is in the details. Yeah, all those sus vibes that you got from the housing price apocalypse, doomsday, YouTubers. All of those vibes you had are validated by now. Just in time for a sweater weather. Respected research firm CoreLogic released their report with end of quarter housing stats nationwide.
Speaker 1 (00:02:52) - Home prices still haven't fallen. There was a healthy 4.5% in September of this year compared to September of last year. Yes, these real estate numbers always run behind a little bit. Well, that 4.5% increase that even includes distressed sales. And that is the fastest growth rate in quite a few months. And again, this is primarily due to a robust job market spiked inflation and housing inventory lows that just keep scraping along the sea bottom floor. So these fundamental reasons for continued home price support, I mean, it's the same stuff I've emphasized for over two years, even as I stated prominently back on television in November of 2021. And although that was avant garde at the time, it's really not in my personality to get smug until the incessant rumors today I told you so or anything like that. Well, the highest price gains this past year. They were concentrated in places that had, I suppose, the best autumn foliage this year, that is, most northeastern states. They are the big gainers now. There were some price declines in a few places.
Speaker 1 (00:04:08) - They were felt in just four western states and D.C. the four western states were Utah, Idaho, Montana and Wyoming. Now, see, in the pandemic, those states prices, they stretched broader than basketball star Victor Wembanyama. And today they are mildly correcting. But back to the base case here. The 46 of 50 states which experienced appreciation oven mitts are needed to handle the three hottest states led by Maine 10%, Connecticut also at 10%, and new Jersey, with a 9% gain. And when you break that down in the metro area, it was Miami that led with soaring 8.5% appreciation. And it's interesting are core investment areas of the Midwest in southeast, which I call the stable markets. They lived up to that moniker again, they appreciated moderately during the pandemic and still appreciating moderately today. And as we approach winter, expect home price depreciation to have its seasonal slowdown. That's what tends to happen each year. In fact, there's a slowdown in sales of volume two. There are just so few homes on the market, but it has gotten really slow lately.
Speaker 1 (00:05:28) - Now, I do like CoreLogic, the supplier of this information. They contribute their single family rent index to our industry. And that's so valuable because most rent data that you find out there is about apartments. CoreLogic predicts further home price appreciation over the next year of 2.6%. And similarly, the Nar. They expect home prices to rise 2.6% next year. Now, next month, you will hear me. Release gives home price appreciation forecasts right here on the show, and you're also going to learn how accurate my forecast was for this year that I made last year. Now, just last month, I made an in-person field trip to Cash Flow Country, the Midwestern United States. You've got some income property providers there that are still steadily sourcing properties to investors like you. But, you know, there are a few now where they're not even doing that lately because some providers are having trouble making the numbers work for you, the investor. Like, for example, on a single family rental that was built in the 1960s.
Speaker 1 (00:06:40) - Right. A somewhat older property. Where it is commanding, say 1650 rent. And this is a real example of rehab property that I visited in the Midwest, 1650 REM. Well, these property providers can get, say, $230,000 for that property if they sell it to an owner occupant instead of an investor like you. Well, with higher interest rates on an older property, you know, 1650 rent on a 230 K purchase price. And it doesn't work so great for you as an investor, although it might on a newbuild property. So that's why a provider like that is selling to owner occupants instead of investors like you, an owner occupant, they'll pay 230 K because they don't have to make it cash flow. It's their home. So instead of selling it to an investor like you were, say 190 K is the most that it would make sense for you to pay. Well, then sure, that provider is going to get 230 K from an owner occupant, so it makes more sense for that provider to sell it to the owner occupant as well.
Speaker 1 (00:07:44) - Now, one income property company that has in-house management and all that. I mean, this is a company that then is set up to serve investors. What they've done though is currently they're selling about 80% to retail homeowners, owner occupants in just 20% to turnkey real estate investors. For just that reason, owner occupants can pay more for it because of what's going on in the cycle. So in that particular Midwestern market, either mortgage interest rates must come down or rents must rise in order for it to make sense to you as an investor again. Now, later in the show today, you'll soon see that we've effectively found a way to make interest rates go back in time a couple of years when they were low, and how you can apply them to new Build income property. Today you'll learn exactly what that rate is, and this is fairly exciting. But yes, everyone wants to know where are mortgage rates going to go. And no one I mean absolutely no one knows where rates will go. Not your mortgage loan officer, not Janet Yellen, not your property provider.
Speaker 1 (00:08:55) - They don't know where mortgage rates are going to go, not the president of the United States, not Charlie Ridge, not a real estate agent, not Ron DeSantis and not me. No one knows where rates are going, of course. But we did learn something just about ten days ago. Fed Chair Jerome Powell said he's not confident. Those were his words in quotes, not confident that policymakers have done enough to curb inflation. Well, that right there. That is what is known as a hawkish comment in fed vernacular. If they haven't done enough to curb inflation, then that is what has renewed fears of more interest rate increases. Now your investment properties next tenant might be a grandparent with a flip phone. Roughly three out of ten renter households are now headed by people age 55 plus. After bottoming out in 2004, older renters have become a major share of the tenant population today, and I share this with you recently. If you're a reader of Art, Don't Quit Your Day Dream letter. And by the way, welcome to all of our new letter readers.
Speaker 1 (00:10:08) - We recently had a few thousand new Don't Quit Your Adrian Letter subscribers, our weekly email newsletter. Welcome here to the podcast. Now as I'll explain why in a moment you should like and embrace older renters. Now, first things first. Understand that as a property owner or landlord, you cannot age discriminate in your advertising or in your tenant screening. But all right, once you're done poking fun at their jitterbug or their track phone, understand that older renters, they are desirable. And by the way, our jitter, bugs and track phones still made us think that at least one of those two phone models is still made. At least one of them is a flip phone. Not completely sure, but anyway, yes, now that we know that there are more older renters here, about 3 in 10 American renters now age 55 plus, okay, older renters, hey, they really are desirable for a bunch of reasons. You're going to have lower turnover. Okay? Older people tend to stay put. There's a low transient rate.
Speaker 1 (00:11:15) - They have a low mobility rate. That's another way to say it. Also all the renters, they tend to be more quiet. They're less likely to throw three keg ragers no beer pong, no headbutt dents in the drywall. And when it comes to savings and income, they have more of it and expect low regulation. Unlike something like assisted living, there is no special government permitting or any specialized staff that's needed. So. There are some big reasons why this growing group of older renters that is good for you as an income property owner. So to review what you've learned, that's due to lower mobility. They're more quiet, they have more savings in income and there's low regulation. And I'm going to say that personally, I've come to appreciate my older friends more as time goes on. And I recently realized that I have some of my best conversations with them. But they won't talk me into the jitterbug. They can't talk me into giving up my life without Instagram on an iPhone. Many older adults, they don't want the hassle of homeownership and others they are just feeling the weight of dreadful homebuyer affordability, just like everyone else.
Speaker 1 (00:12:30) - And one major reason for why there are more older renters. If you're trying to find a reason why it's not due to some seismic behavioral shift, it's just the simple fact that the American population keeps getting older overall. Overall, we have an aging population. And by the way, is 55 that old? I mean, the 55 plus age group, that can mean a lot of things. And 85 year old and 55 year old lived very different lives with different activity levels, of course. But is 55 that old? I don't know, I know that you only need to be age 50 to be an AARP member. I guess 55 sounds old, because you can say that you're pretty likely to be in the second half of your life, but maybe if you divide life up into thirds, you could say then that 55 is in the middle third, and then therefore 55 could be seen as middle aged and not old, I suppose. And for some reason, it's systemic in American culture that people don't seem to want to be called old for whatever reason.
Speaker 1 (00:13:35) - It has a mildly pejorative connotation, but it is a group of people with their own separate habits, and these people are more likely to be using trekking poles when they go hiking, I guess. And I don't agree that age is just a number. I mean, come on, age means something in 85 year old men. They are not going to qualify to play in the NBA All-Star game. They're not going to be the most agile defensive back on an NFL field. So that takeaway here is that more renters are older. Embrace it. It's good if you're a listener but still don't have our valuable don't quit your day dream letter, which wires your mind for wealth, and it updates you on real estate trends. You can get it for free right now. Just text message group to 66866. That's green to 66866. We've been talking about the aging population here on get Rich education episode 476. All right. But how about the overall US population trend. This is something that you might have seen elsewhere since it transcends real estate.
Speaker 1 (00:14:46) - But I'll give you my real estate take on it too. All right. So the latest Census Bureau figures, they show that the US population is projected to contract to shrink by the year 2100, which would be only the second decline in the nation's history. And the other decline occurred in the 1918 Spanish flu and World War one. For those reasons, annual population growth rates, they have dropped from about 1.2% a generation ago to just one half of 1% today, and the culprits are declining birth rates and that aforementioned aging population. All right. The US has the world's third biggest population, and it could be demoted to fourth or fifth by Pakistan or Nigeria as soon as the middle of this century. So this anticipated population contraction, that means that immigration could become vital for any hopes of continued growth. And yet understand the US is still growing faster than a lot of other high income nations like Japan and Italy, that are already losing population. All right, so the US population is projected to shrink by 2100.
Speaker 1 (00:16:02) - The more important thing for you to remember as a real estate investor that's going to need a population to drive demand, is that our population is still expected to grow every year until about the year 2080 by most every model out there. So still 50 to 60 years of population growth. And then it isn't until later 2100 that is expected to decline. And of course, birth rates and immigration rates are bigger unknowns than the death rate out there in the future. Just estimating how soon our population is going to peak, but it's going to be a. While many decades. And then, of course, even in 50, 60 years, if the overall American population stops growing. All right, well, it'll probably still grow in some regions. And, you know, I wonder if Florida will still be growing late this century. It seems like it never stops there with population growth. And also it's not just about overall population growth when it comes to housing demand. It's how people choose to live within a certain population growth rate.
Speaker 1 (00:17:12) - Okay, with a population of 100, if there are two people per household, well, they can be housed with 50 homes, but if there is just one person per household, well then it's going to take 100 homes to house those same 100 people, no longer 50 homes. All right. And one trend that's made for surging American housing demand is that you have fewer people living in each household. That's how people choose to live today. So keep that in mind. You see a small half of 1% annual growth rate in more recent years, but there are a lot of numbers behind the numbers. Now, you might wonder what I think about the federal jury that recently found the National Association of Realtors and large brokerages, and how they conspire to keep commissions artificially high. What's that really mean? Well, what it means is more flexibility for buyers. I mean, under the current system, sellers pay their own agents commission of roughly 5 to 6%, and then that 5 to 6% that's shared with the buyer's agent.
Speaker 1 (00:18:18) - Well, if sellers now get billion from paying buyer's agents, well, then buyers would have to start to pay their own agent if they choose to use one. And a buyer could do that at either a flat rate or an hourly rate. But first time homebuyers, they could really feel the crunch, or that could become a bigger issue for those wannabe first time homebuyers that are having a hard time amassing the savings to pay for an agent on top of their down payment and their closing costs. Just another whammy for those wannabe first time homebuyers. They keep getting beaten down, and that's what could put some upward pressure on rents. But I don't think it would really be much as a result of that alone. And another consequence of this is that there would be less commission paid by sellers. I mean, the way it works is that in order to advertise a listing on the database, the MLS, the Multiple Listing Service, are that MLS that populates real estate websites like Zillow and Redfin? Well, in order for that to happen, sellers in most markets they have to agree to pay the buyer's agent's commission as well as their own sellers agents commission.
Speaker 1 (00:19:31) - Well, that's the practice that could be scrapped and that could spell trouble for real estate agents. A lot of people have estimated that $30 billion could potentially leave the industry, and some estimate that 1.6 million agents could lose their jobs. See, the way that the system had worked in the past is that one reason that the seller pays the entire 5 to 6% commission for both sides is because it's usually easy for them to do that, since sellers are the ones that have the equity in their property and the buyers often don't. So this could make homeownership even more difficult to qualify for. I mean, if first time homebuyers already had to jump over a four foot hurdle, now it's perhaps a five foot hurdle if this all happens. But there are still legal battles ongoing there in the real estate agent commissions case. Now, as I've talked about before, with this American housing shortage, it's the affordable housing segment that has high demand and is so drastically undersupplied. Now just get this understand that from 2019 until today, the price of a new car rose 22%, the price of a median home rose 42%.
Speaker 1 (00:20:54) - And the mobile home price, which is about the most affordable option for housing that rose by a giant 58%. I mean, wow, that is a testament to the major housing shortage at the affordable price points. That really, really spells it out. And if you're confident that the long term play is to provide good, affordable housing like we are here at, you know, there are more reasons to look at loading up on properties like duplexes and triplexes. And for plex's where you can get fixed rates now. And if you wanted to, you could refinance to long term fixed rates later. Now to buy a rate cap for a larger apartment building. That has just balloon in expense for you? Yes, a rate cap buying the what's basically like insurance you buy that puts a ceiling on how high your interest rate can go on larger apartment buildings. You don't have to do that with 1 to 4 unit property. You can just get fixed rate certainty. Now, a couple years ago, rate caps for large apartment buildings, they were pretty affordable.
Speaker 1 (00:22:05) - They were inexpensive. It took 40 K, 50 or 100 K to ensure that your rate wouldn't adjust too high. And then once it did, of course the rate cap insurance would kick in. But that same rate cap this year could be nearly $1 million. Yeah. See, a couple years ago, the $10 million loan, you could have bought a 2% rate cap for 60 to 75 K in three years coverage. Well, if you'd want to extend that this year, just a one year renewal, you could probably spend 350 K. Well, that has become prohibitively expensive for a lot of larger apartment buildings. And coming up, one of our in-house investment coaches in the race is going to be joining us from Florida, where they're building new construction duplexes and for plex's affordably. And they're selling them to investors like us at just a 5.75% interest rate. That's straight ahead. I'm Keith Winfield, you're listening to get Rich education. Jerry, listeners can't stop talking about their service from Ridge Lending Group and MLS.
Speaker 1 (00:23:18) - 42056. They've provided our tribe with more loans than anyone. They're truly a top lender for beginners and veterans. It's where I go to get my own loans for single family rental property up to four plex. So start your prequalification and you can chat with President Charlie Ridge. Personally, though, even deliver your custom plan for growing your real estate portfolio. Start at Ridge Lending Group. You know, I'll just tell you, for the most passive part of my real estate investing, personally, I put my own dollars with Freedom Family Investments because their funds pay me a stream of regular cash flow in returns are better than a bank savings account up to 12%. Their minimums are as low as 25 K. You don't even need to be accredited for some of them. It's all backed by real estate. And I kind of love how the tax benefit of doing this can offset capital gains in your W-2 jobs income. They've always given me exactly their stated return paid on time. So it's steady income, no surprises while I'm sleeping or just doing the things I love.
Speaker 1 (00:24:29) - For a little insider tip, I've invested in their power fund to get going on that text family to 66866. Oh, and this isn't a solicitation. If you want to invest where I do, just go ahead and text family to six, 686, six. This is Rich dad advisor Tom Wheelwright. Listen to get Rich education with Keith Reinhold and don't quit your daydream. It's always valuable for you, the listener and me as well. To have a market discussion with one of our in-house investment coaches were doing that today. Naresh, welcome back onto the show.
Speaker 3 (00:25:23) - Is Keith looking forward to talking?
Speaker 1 (00:25:26) - Let us know what's happening from your view. I mean, give us your perspective on the real estate market today and any drivers or trends.
Speaker 3 (00:25:35) - Look, Keith, I've been working as a real estate investment coach for about four and a half years now. I've been a real estate investor for about six and a half years. I've been working with for two years now, and it's great because it's almost like I'm a leading indicator on what's going on with inflation, what's going on with the housing market, because I see it in front of my eyes in real time.
Speaker 3 (00:26:02) - I have it on my spreadsheets that are in front of me. Of all the different properties that were sold or inquiries that we get from clients right now, I am actually seeing a slowdown this month of November compared to the first ten days or the first 20 days of the previous month. There's definitely somewhat of a slowdown. We're getting more complaints or nagging from clients saying, oh, I'm not able to rent out my property for as much as I thought I'd be able to, or my property's been vacant for longer than usual. What this is telling me key is, at least in my state, look, home values vary based on geography. We know that home values are like the weather. The weather is not the same everywhere. For the most part, I think you're going to see that national home values peaked a month or two ago. Rents certainly peaked about two months ago. What I mean by that is we saw rents go up precipitous just going up, up, up since January 2021 nonstop. And they finally peaked.
Speaker 3 (00:27:17) - And when I say peak home values, peak rents don't mean that they've crashed. I don't mean that they've gone down. They've just peaked and leveled off. So I haven't seen a decline in rents. I haven't seen a decline in home values from two months ago. I'm just saying they've leveled off. And so I actually expect this inflation or I expect inflation CPI moving forward to go back down. I know that we did see a blip up for a few months, but I think we're going to start seeing things go back down as the fed old rate study appears. They're done raising for good, and they're just going to ride it out with how it is currently. And then once unemployment crosses, probably 4.5%, if at all, that does cross 4.5%, that's when they're going to start cutting. If unemployment crosses 4%, then they're probably just going to wait it out until inflation hits that 2% target. And so what does this all mean for real estate. What does this mean for interest rates. Low interest rates I've talked about peaks.
Speaker 3 (00:28:28) - We saw peak mortgage rates. Also it looks like mortgage rates peaked. And they've slowly crept back down not significantly to a point where as an investor you're like, oh let me jump in. No. But think we saw mortgage rates as well. So again, what does this all mean. This means 2024. We're almost a month away from 2024. I think it's going to be a great opportunity to jump in, because you'll be able to catch the real estate market that's going to hit some type of bottom in 2024. You're going to see mortgage rates go back down in 2024. That also means today because remember, Keith, I've come on your show before talking about incentives that providers who we work with, partners who we know personally and who we've worked with for many, many years, we've been offering incentives that make up for this high inflation, that make up for the higher interest rates. And those incentives are very likely going to be gone in 2024 as mortgage rates go back down, as the home values maybe decline slightly.
Speaker 1 (00:29:39) - We want to talk about some of those incentives later, about how providers are buying down the interest rate for you on rental property, but rates, I think perhaps the most interesting thing you said, the thing that I didn't expect is that you're talking to some investors out there where they're telling you about how they have more or longer vacancies than they had expected. I didn't think that I would hear that from you. Is that a pretty small sample size, or is that passed by apartments versus single family homes or entry level versus luxury or anything else?
Speaker 3 (00:30:13) - I'm talking about single homes, so can't speak for apartments. I'm talking about cookie cutter, entry level, single family homes. This is in multiple different markets. So not just in one city. This is in multiple cities states. We're seeing vacancies. We're seeing, like I said, the rent growth rate that was previously being used six months ago, eight months ago, the property managers have had to use a lower rate because there's been a decline. So it's not surprising.
Speaker 3 (00:30:44) - There's just no way that the country would would have been able to survive with rents going up the way they were going up with home values going up the way that we're going up. So there was bound to be a stoppage. And so we've seen that stoppage in home values, we've seen that stoppage in rents. And when I say stoppage again, not a decline in rents, not a significant decline in home values. But they leveled off from their peaks. And that's just how the business cycle works. Every 30 years or so when we see super high inflation, it's not surprising that I'm seeing this. But this is what's going on in the market right now, from Florida to Tennessee and Alabama to Ohio, in Missouri, Kansas City.
Speaker 1 (00:31:31) - For about five months in a row now, we have seen wages be higher than inflation. But of course that's just stated CPI inflation. And then there is quite a lag effect there too. If wages do exceed inflation, when will that eventually catch up to higher rents? We don't really know.
Speaker 1 (00:31:50) - But one thing we do know over the long term is rents are historically very, very stable, even more stable than home prices. It was so unusual when rents were up about 15% year over year, a year or two ago. You don't typically see that rents tend to stay stable, and they sure are stabilizing lately. What do you have any other thoughts as you look around the market and race? Because you often talk to our followers in there, they get a hold of you for you to help lead them through contracts and connect them with the right properties and providers that can meet their goals. So what are our followers asking about?
Speaker 3 (00:32:27) - Our followers right now are fearful, which is very common. Fear always rules people's minds and they're fearful of a crash. And look, there are certain real estate asset classes, commercial real estate, which you've talked about for a while, is going through a decline right now and could be going through a major crash as many of these commercial real estate owners default on their mortgages or their loans, their commercial loans, there is a concern that there could be a crash in the housing market.
Speaker 3 (00:32:58) - Meredith Whitney, who really famous real estate banker, I believe the only woman to call the 2008 financial crisis. She called it back in seven. Meredith Whitney came out a couple of weeks ago and said, there's going to be a decline in home values, and I'm here to tell you that there has been a classic line on values. And will that continue? It could continue where there's a, again, a slight decline. So don't see a crash coming. The reason is because I feel like the economy, the banks are much healthier today than they were. And let's say at 2007, the people who have been laid off, we're going to see unemployment continue to go up. It's not the 10% plus that we saw during the pandemic or the really we reached close to that 2008, 2009 or so. I just don't see something systemic to where there's going to be a housing market crash. And it's all about supply. Housing supply is still very low. So until the supply catches up to the demand, think the real estate market is going to stay healthy.
Speaker 3 (00:34:14) - And if you're looking to buy an old over a 30 year period, if you're looking to buy and rent for cashflow, it's still a great time. Right now, there's just certain asset classes. Like I said, commercial real estate. Maybe wait for the crash. They're short term rentals. The worst time to get into short term rentals would have been a year or one and a half years ago, 18 to 20 months ago. That space has declined because there has been a decline in travel, leisure, airfare, corporate expenses, the corporate trips. There has been a decline. So we don't promote those often. They're available. What? We don't promote them often, but that's another asset class that could be ripe for, I want to say, a crash, but a big decline when it comes to cookie cutter, entry level Single-Family homes. I just don't see this huge crash that people have been waiting for over the last 15 years.
Speaker 1 (00:35:13) - Right. As you know, I've talked extensively about how it's virtually impossible for that to happen.
Speaker 1 (00:35:19) - And yes, everyone wants to know what's coming. It surely has been a consensus among analysts and others that mortgage interest rates have peaked and or the fed funds rate is done increasing in this cycle. Many seem to think that next year, if rates come down, that that is really going to push home prices through the roof. I don't know if that's necessarily true, because typically a cutting of rates coincides with an economic slowdown or a recession. So I think a cutting of rates next year that could result in a moderate price increase. But of course, we have to remember that some of that supply is going to come once rates go down, you will have a few more people motivated to sell. You also have a lot more people motivated to buy and that can qualify as well. But the rates think a lot of people really in this cycle lately, when they've seen higher mortgage interest rates maybe than some people have seen in their entire investment life, you know, they feel like they kind of want to get some sort of break, but they sort of want to wait and see what happens with the market.
Speaker 1 (00:36:20) - But we actually have something to talk about here where they can get a break. They don't have to wait and see with what's going on in the market. And that's with what is taking place in Florida.
Speaker 3 (00:36:33) - That's exactly what's taking place in Florida. We work with a provider who is going to be on with us. We're hosting a webinar with them about a special 5.75% interest rate. The lowest interest rate that we see across the board with any provider we work with from Alabama to Texas, etcetera. So they're coming on our webinar. They're going to promote and discuss that 5.75% program that they have, as well as a 2 to 4 program. That's two years of free property management, 2% closing cost credit into $4,000 release fee. You might say, well, why do I need a $4,000 release a credit? Because their best properties or highest cash flowing properties. Highest returning properties are quads and duplexes. So these are huge breaks that will reduce the amount of money you need to bring to close and look. If you're a high net worth or if you're a high income earner sucking it up and paying the 9% interest rate today.
Speaker 3 (00:37:37) - If that's what you decide to opt for with the 224 program, 9% interest rate, or 8% interest rate today, it'll save you on your taxes, the mortgage interest tax deductible, and in 5 or 6 years, you can just refinance, most likely at an ultra low rate, maybe even sooner than that. So still, there are some really good deals. If you work through us, then we can help you find some really, really good programs and incentives so that it's like going back to 2020 or 2021, when interest rates were super low, or when there was less cash that you had for bringing to the same level. So we have that definitely recommend that people check out this webinar. It's great webinars. Com you can register for it over there. webinars.com. I'm going to be on it's Monday November 27th. That's Monday, November 27th at 8:30 p.m. Eastern Time. So people on the West Coast can finish up work, attend the event. People on the East Coast can finish up dinner, put their kids to sleep and attend the event.
Speaker 3 (00:38:43) - So I look forward to seeing everybody there. It's a special, special webinar, special deals, special promotions only through the average education.
Speaker 1 (00:38:54) - So the 5.75% rate, if I remember from previously narration, it's a ten year fixed rate and a 30 year amortization at those terms. And then is one choosing between the 5.75 rate and the 224 plan that you described. Is it one or the other? Can you get.
Speaker 3 (00:39:12) - One or the other? It's one or the other. Because to get that 5.75% rate, yeah, the builder is paying the lender a lot of money. And to lower those points, they're buying points to to get you the investor that rate. So it's one or the other. And by the way, that 224 program the purchase price is negotiable. So that's also why I like that 2 to 4 program. Because you can go back and forth and I can help you out negotiate the price, maybe shape 10 to 15 maybe $20,000 if it's a high ticket item off the purchase price. So makes the numbers look even better.
Speaker 3 (00:39:54) - That's my favorite program, the 5.75% program. That might be right for some other people, so that's fair to.
Speaker 1 (00:40:02) - Else about the property prices and types.
Speaker 3 (00:40:06) - So this provider we work with has single families, duplexes, four plex quads all available. The price points are anywhere from $250,000 to $800,000. Everything is new construction. That's also in flux, as in the single family is just cash flowing much. So I would say go for a duplex or a quad. Duplexes are around $400,000, give or take 20,000 over under, and quads are somewhere between 650 to $800,000.
Speaker 1 (00:40:45) - Okay, so these are brand new build properties in Florida. So yeah we're talking about entry level rental homes here. The asset type that seems to have the greatest dearth of supply in housing, entry level single family homes. You just have such a good chance to own an in-demand asset that everyone is going to want over time here. Do you have any last thoughts about this webinar trace, which you're going to help put on for people? That way the participants can ask you questions.
Speaker 1 (00:41:16) - They can ask the provider questions, any question they want to, things about the physical property, things about just how they bought down your rate to 5.75% for you, or how they can do the 224 program for you. Those are some of the benefits of attending. You can have your question answered in real time there with narration. Do you have any last thoughts about this event that's taking place on Monday? The 27?
Speaker 3 (00:41:39) - Well, you definitely want to register at Jerry webinars. Jerry webinars. We already have more than 50 people registered and now this episode is out. I'm sure we're going to get another 100 or so. Like you said, people can come on and ask some questions, actually talk to us, interact with us. Last time they wanted to these webinars, it went like 2.5 hours. People were having such a great time. We went into the wee hours of the night just talking to all sorts of folks, answering questions. It's super interactive, really educational. The best part is completely free and you get goodies and perks and incentives back in return for ten.
Speaker 1 (00:42:17) - Now, look, I know that some of these incentives have got to sound terrific to you, the listener and viewer here. I just want to pull back and take a look at things. More fundamentally. This is truly investing. This is not speculating. You own a piece of Florida land in a house constructed of commodities. On top of that land, from wood to steel to concrete. You already know about Florida's In-migration. We've talked about that at nauseam on the show here, and it's not speculative because you're purchasing something for rent production, not a speculative endeavor. Over the long term, people will pay you in order to live in a property that you provide to them. I mean, this is the sort of thing where you could even if say, you have a spouse or a mother that has nothing to do with real estate knowledge, they don't know anything about it. You can explain this to your spouse or your mother and they would understand. So it's easy to understand where your income comes from.
Speaker 1 (00:43:12) - It's really fundamental. I don't know how long the 5.75% rates are going to last, because this same provider had a lower rate a few months ago. I told you then I didn't know how long it was going to last and it didn't last. Now it's 5.75%, which is still a great rate. I really encourage you. Sign up. It's free. It's our live event next Monday night, the 27th at 8:30 p.m. eastern, 530 Pacific. Again, you can email@example.com. What a great update in race. Thanks so much for coming back into the show.
Speaker 3 (00:43:46) - Thanks, skeet.
Speaker 1 (00:43:53) - If you're unsure about making it on the live event on the 27th, but it interests you, sign up and we might be able to get you access to the replay, but you want to watch it soon because the properties available are limited. And again, I don't know how long the 5.75% rate will last. You think you've heard every amazing Florida In-migration stat by now? Well perhaps not. In the latest year over year, Florida saw 740,000 people moved there.
Speaker 1 (00:44:23) - Yeah, basically three quarters of a million in just one year. That is truly astounding. That's clearly the most of any state in the country. And with all the growth, Florida's property market became recently the second most valuable in the US last year that bumped New York down to third place. That's according to Zillow. So this population growth is leading to a prosperity increase in the value of Florida property. So I think a lot of people get focused on these things, like wondering if the fed will raise rates another quarter point at their next meeting, and if that's going to show up in mortgage rates. And they wonder about the mortgage market in the future, and it feels like something that you cannot control. But now you can with this rate, buy down courtesy of the builders. So joining us on the webinar to learn all about it. Again, it's all new build and we make that really clear and spell it out for you. In next week's live event, you get to select from one of the two options.
Speaker 1 (00:45:29) - To make it clear here, either a 5.75% rate or the 224 program, which means two years of free property management, 2% of the purchase price and closing cost credit, and a $4,000 lease up fee credit. Sign up. It's free. It's our live event next Monday night, the 27th at 8:30 p.m. eastern at 530 Pacific. Register at GRC webinars dot com. Until next week. I'm your host, Keith Weinhold. Don't quit your day. Great.
Speaker 4 (00:46:02) - Nothing on this show should be considered specific, personal or professional advice. Please consult an appropriate tax, legal, real estate, financial or business professional for individualized advice. Opinions of guests are their own. Information is not guaranteed. All investment strategies have the potential for profit or loss. The host is operating on behalf of get Rich education LLC exclusively.
Speaker 1 (00:46:30) - The preceding program was brought to you by your home for wealth building. Get rich education.