Get Rich Education

Compound interest in stocks gets worn down to less than nothing due to: inflation, emotion, taxes, fees, and volatility.

I focus on the little-understood deleterious effects of volatility.

DON’T focus on getting your money to work for you. Learn what to focus on instead.

Compound leverage and OPM are the wealth-building flexes.

We discuss how to use a lower down payment to achieve a potential 20% cash-on-cash return with the BRRRR Strategy. Join our live, virtual event for this at:

Resources mentioned:

For access to properties or free help with a

GRE Investment Coach, start here:

Get mortgage loans for investment property: or call 855-74-RIDGE 

or e-mail:

Invest with Freedom Family Investments. 

You get paid first: Text FAMILY to 66866

For advertising inquiries, visit:

Will you please leave a review for the show? I’d be grateful. Search “how to leave an Apple Podcasts review” 

GRE Free Investment Coaching:

Best Financial Education:

Get our wealth-building newsletter free—

text ‘GRE’ to 66866

Our YouTube Channel:

Follow us on Instagram:


Keith’s personal Instagram:



Complete episode transcript:


Keith Weinhold (00:00:01) - Welcome to GRE. I'm your host, Keith Weinhold. Compound interest is weak. What kind of iconoclastic heresy is that? Oh, I've got even more. Including. Don't get your money to work for you. This is a wealth building show. So why don't we discuss 401 days in IRAs here? It's precisely because they're not designed to build wealth. We'll get into that then. A way you can achieve higher property, cash and cash returns than you can with buy and hold real estate today and get rich education.


Robert Syslo (00:00:38) - Since 2014, the powerful get Rich education podcast has created more passive income for people than nearly any other show in the world. This show teaches you how to earn strong returns from passive real estate, investing in the best markets without losing your time being a flipper or landlord. Show host Keith Wine, who writes for both Forbes and Rich Dad Advisors and delivers a new show every week. Since 2014, there's been millions of listeners downloads and 188 world nations. He has A-list show guests include top selling personal finance author Robert Kiyosaki.


Robert Syslo (00:01:06) - Get Rich education can be heard on every podcast platform. Plus it has its own dedicated Apple and Android listener. Phone apps build wealth on the go with the get Rich education podcast. Sign up now for the get Rich education podcast or visit get Rich


Corey Coates (00:01:23) - You're listening to the show that has created more financial freedom than nearly any show in the world. This is get rich education.


Keith Weinhold (00:01:39) - We're going to go from Saint Helena Island to Helena, Montana and across 188 nations worldwide. I'm Keith Weinhold, and you are listening to get Rich education. Compound interest is weak. Compound leverage is powerful. And with both available to most anyone, why don't you have more leverage in your financial life? That was a long time listener. You probably understand that if you're a newer listener, your reaction to that is like, wait, what? I mean, your inner self is telling you something like that challenges my existing longtime belief about how compound interest builds wealth. In fact, I will fight to protect this core belief. Even Albert Einstein purportedly called compound interest the eighth wonder of the world.


Keith Weinhold (00:02:36) - All right, well, let's break down compound interest until it looks as impotent as it is, as pathetic as it is, and as fallacious as compound interest is in the sense that it applies to your life as an investor. Now understand, I once thought the same limiting way that perhaps you once did, and that most others still do. When I was out of college and at my first job, I thought that there could be nothing better than getting my money to work for me with compound interest. Oh, and then maybe even the layer on top of that with the tax efficiencies of, say, a 401 K, 400 3B4 57 plan or an IRA. Then I took a real interest in this stuff, and I soon learned that I don't want any of those things because they don't build wealth. I don't want compound interest. I don't want to focus on getting my money to work for me. And I don't want any of those government sponsored retirement plans either. And that's why today I don't have any of them now, I remember when I had this one particular appointment, a financial planning appointment a few years ago, and I had it with what I'll call a conventional financial planning firm.


Keith Weinhold (00:03:56) - Maybe I remember it so well because it was an in-person meeting. It was in a tall office building that I went to and visited in downtown Anchorage, Alaska. And when I was in this money manager's office where basically what he was trying to do is win me as a new client. That's fine. That's his business model. Well, he had this big paper and cardboard sort of laminated charts thing resting on an easel, and this chart was prominently placed in his office so that I or anyone could see it. It showed the rate of return over time of. And I forget which index it plotted. It was either the Dow or the S&P, but no matter. It showed the return line going up and to the right for over 100 years. Your classic chart go up. It gave the impression to a prospective new client like me that, oh well, I had the opportunity to buy into this. And if I just invest my capital with this money manager and pay him fees for managing it for me now, I was at the point where I was starting to become better educated on these sorts of things compared to a layperson, for sure.


Keith Weinhold (00:05:06) - And I had been a real estate investor for a while at this point. Well, that physical chart in his office resting on an easel, it showed something like an 8 or 10% stock market return over time. Let's just be kind and call it 10% annually. And that's the first time in my life that I ever remember asking the question when I asked that money manager something like the chart shows a 10% market return, but what would my return be after inflation? Emotion taxes, your fees and volatility. Mic drop. You could hear a pin drop. I'll tell you what. That money manager almost froze. He didn't know what to say. I just remember, he began his reply, starting with talking about how inflation was low at the time. And yes, CPI inflation was low at that time, but he just didn't have a good answer for me. He was overwhelmed. He may have not ever had anyone ask him a question like that in his life. That sure is how he acted. And needless to say, I left his office that day without ever becoming one of his investors.


Keith Weinhold (00:06:17) - All right, so then let's dig into it. I've scratched the surface a little. What is the problem with, say, a 10% average annual return compounded over time? I mean, that sounds rather attractive when it's presented that way. Well, first, what do you think that the real rate of. Long term inflation is some make the case that it's still 15% today, even though the current CPI is 3 or 3.5%, and anyone that's looked at it feels that measure, the CPI is understated. So what do you think you want to use 6%. How about 6% as the long term true diminished purchasing power of the dollar? Okay then will your 10% stock market return -6% or you're already down to a 4% inflation adjusted return? Then there's the emotional component to buy and sell at exactly the wrong time, because no matter what people say they're going to do, most people want to sell when stocks are low because they're discouraged and they're just tired of taking their losses and they want to cut their loss. And then conversely, people want to buy when stocks rise because they're encouraged and they say they're a momentum investor and they experience FOMO if they're not in and riding the stocks up, well, what did you just do then? You just sold low and bought high.


Keith Weinhold (00:07:42) - How much does that emotional effect drag down your 4% inflation adjusted stock return that were already down to now? I mean, are you already at less than zero? Then there's taxes. Even in a 401 or IRA, you either pay the tax now or you pay the tax later. It's not tax free. How far below zero is your real return? Now that it's taxed? The IRS won't adjust your tax for inflation on a capital gain. Then tack on the investment fees, which can be 2% or higher. If you've got a professional money manager like the guy I met with in downtown Anchorage, or the fees can be really low if you are in an index fund. But how far below zero are you now? And that brings us to the last drag on compound interest in the stock market. We're not even done yet, remember? Okay, all we've done now is deduct out inflation, emotion, taxes and fees. What about adjusting it down further for volatility. Let's look at how deleterious volatility is to this floored compound.


Keith Weinhold (00:08:48) - Interest builds wealth thesis right here. Because you know on a lot of episodes we've just glossed over that. It just comes down to math. If you're up 10% one year and down 10% the next year, you're not back to even run the math and you'll see that you've lost 1%. That's just simply math. And now I'm going to get wonky here for a moment, and I'll use a more extreme example to demonstrate my volatility point for you. But I must get that way in order to debunk this myth about how compound interest builds wealth, or the getting your money to work for you builds wealth. Time spent making up lost returns is not the same as positively compounding your return. Any time you're looking at the annual average performance of an investment, it is vital to check how that performance has been calculated. And bear with me here for a minute, because this is substantive. Say your collection of stocks or whatever it is, just your overall portfolio value. It doesn't matter. Say it's up 50% one year, down 40% the next, then 50 up 40, down 50, up 40 down again.


Keith Weinhold (00:10:05) - All right. That right there was a 5% average annual return. But your average annual return. That is a lie because a 5% return through arithmetic performance. That sounds better than what really just happened to your money. So in a mutual fund prospectus, you might see that as a headline number, the 5% average annual return. But that's a lie in the small print. That's where you're more likely to see this CAGR, the compounded annual growth rate, and the CAGR. That's usually going to be worse than what the average annual number is. That headline number. And in our example, the CAGR is -5.1%. In this case that's the geometric figure. That's what you really want to look at not the arithmetic one. It looked like the market was up 5%, but your real return on your money was down 5.1%, a delta of 10.1% then. And the more volatile your returns are, the wider and wider this difference becomes. Now, if there were zero volatility, your average annual return, the arithmetic thing and the CAGR, the geometric thing, they would be the same and there wouldn't be any need to have this discussion.


Keith Weinhold (00:11:35) - This discussion is. Germane because volatility exists in the stock market and its related derivatives. So small differences over time compound and see really the problem is over the decades in your conventional retirement account, if you think that you're going to be quadrupling your money over time, but you only double your money over time, now you can see how this becomes a major problem. Come time for your retirement when it's too late. All right. Now, if you didn't follow that part because there were a few numbers flying around, just remember this time spent making up for lost returns is not the same as positively compounding your return inflation, emotion, taxes, fees, and volatility that just broke down any conventionally invested nest egg to less than nothing. This is why volatility is worse for investments than most people think. Well, we had someone write in to our general mailbox a while ago. And by the way, we like to hear from you. You can always communicate with us here at GR either through email or voice at get Rich education.


Keith Weinhold (00:12:52) - Com slash contact that's get rich education comment. I'd love to hear from you and really appreciate having you as a listener. Well, a listener wrote in on our inbox. They're asking why, if we're a wealth building show, why don't we talk about the benefits of 401 or IRAs? Well, it's squarely because those things don't create wealth. They aren't even designed to build wealth, but they create the illusion of doing so, partly due to the myth of compound interest that I just explained. But there's more outside of any employer match for IRAs and just generally investing cash in mutual funds or stocks or ETFs, they all have another gigantic problem. It could be a problem even bigger than the compound interest fallacy, which I just addressed. And that is all you're trying to do is get your money to work for you. Getting your money to work for you does not build wealth. Show me some evidence that it does. All right. Well, what's the problem here with these 41K and IRAs? I think you know, where I'm going is that you don't get any leverage.


Keith Weinhold (00:14:06) - Where is your leverage? Every single dollar that you lock away there means that you don't get the opportunity to ethically use three x or four x of what you've invested in OPM, other people's money, which you can build wealth off of. Where is your compound leverage with those conventional vehicles? It's gone. It never existed in the first place. Plus there's typically zero monthly cash flow. Plus you could have it invested where you don't legally have to pay any tax. Instead any tax, because retirement fund investors either pay tax today or pay tax later. Real estate can permanently mitigate income tax like you can get with real estate depreciation and absolutely zero capital gains tax on your real estate with the 1031 exchange. But let's not let the compound interest versus compound leverage case go to rest here just yet okay. How does then compound leverage build wealth instead? Well, the most available means for you to get access to leverage OPM is with real estate. Well, let's just look at what's going on today. Today, per the Fhfa, national home prices, they're up 6.6% year over year.


Keith Weinhold (00:15:26) - That's the latest figure that's not too different than historic norms. All right then. Well, if one year ago you had made a 20% down payment on a property that's 5 to 1 leverage, so you just take your 6.6% home price appreciation rate multiplied by five, and there's 33% for you. You went from a 6.6% return on the asset to a 33% return on your money, because you got the return on both your money and the bank's money. The majority is from the bank, OPM. So if you got a 33% return in year one, maybe it's 26% the next year and 21% the following year. It will go down over time as equity accumulates. And that's compound leverage. That's the wealth builder. And notice what else? Now that you know how destructive volatility is to returns, there is less volatility in real estate asset values. So now you're really on the path because you have a durable wealth builder. And then of course in real estate those high leverage returns are one of just. Five ways you can expect to be paid, but that one is the biggest leveraged appreciation.


Keith Weinhold (00:16:41) - That is the biggest return source of the five over time. And now you better understand why you don't want to set up your investor life to optimize getting your money to work for you. You don't want that. It's to get other people's money to work for you. And my gosh, mathematics makes compound interest in getting your money to work for you look amazing. But the real world proves that compound interest in getting your money to work for you is a farce, and it will keep you working at a job, maybe a soulless job until you're old. But the sheep believe it. You're listening to this show, so you're not a sheep. You're not among the masses. If you do what everyone else does, you'll only get what everyone else got. If you want wealth for yourself. All right, well, then, do you see that? You would have to think differently. And do you think that you would have to learn new things and then act differently than the masses? Well, yes, of course you do.


Keith Weinhold (00:17:41) - You can either go through life as a home run hitter or as a bunter. Most people are afraid to do anything other than learn how to be a bunter. And that's why the most popular personal finance platforms give the worst advice that limit you and keep you small. It's because they're talking to people with average or below average mindsets, not below average intelligence, but an audience of average or below average mindsets, which are the masses and they're just striving to get to a level of mediocrity, okay. They cater to financially irresponsible people that are just trying to get up to a mediocre level. And you know what? I was recently listening to one of these shows, I'll call it, a get rid of your debt and invest for compound interest and get your money to work for you shows. One caller called in. He and his wife got a $60,000 windfall from an heir. And they're wondering what they should do with the money. And they owned a home valued at 500 K, with 320 K left on the mortgage, which was a 3.25% interest.


Keith Weinhold (00:18:53) - And the guidance that the host had for this caller. I'm not kidding. Here was to use the 60 K to pay the 320 K mortgage down, so then they'd only owe 260 on the mortgage. I'm not kidding. That was the recommended course of action. And this is not an aberration. I've heard this same guidance with other callers on this conventional show. I mean, the opportunity cost of such a misguided move, what has he done when he pays down his mortgage? 60 K like that. He lost liquidity, he lost leverage. And it didn't even help with his cash flow. Because with a fixed amortizing loan, your monthly payment is the same the following month. Anyway, that 60 K, instead of being used to pay down a mortgage that could have been leveraged again by purchasing, say, a 250 to 300 K rental property. So my point is that conventional guidance does not build wealth in financial freedom. When you're actually young enough to enjoy it, you do things like learn how to get out of debt and then solely grind for decades, doing so, all while paying the opportunity cost of being leveraged less for the opportunity cost of targeting something like debt free, which is the wrong target rather than being financially free.


Keith Weinhold (00:20:18) - It's just like, if you want a wealth coach, well, then you don't hire and listen to guidance from a mediocrity coach. It's the same is if you want to learn how to skydive, then don't ask a basketball coach because you're going to die. We practice what we preach here at GRA. Now me what would I do if I had a paid off rental property or paid off home? Well, first, I've never had any residential rental property paid off in my life. Not one. Although I could, I'd recognize the opportunity cost of zero leverage. But just say, hypothetically, a paid off home fell in my lap. What's the next thing I do? I would go get the maximum loan against it, and then I'd have access to cash that I could invest in other properties. But what about these new loans that I'm taking out? What happens with them? I'm not concerned because both tenants and inflation pay it down passively, without my involvement at all, without my grinding for it at all, without me trading my time for dollars at all.


Keith Weinhold (00:21:27) - Well, I am really glad that we got into this here in the first segment of today's show. If you're near the show, it probably gave you a starting point for. Some new topics to search. Maybe you should start with learning the difference and reading more about average annual return versus compounded annual growth rate. It's really eye opening. And yes, you've heard me say on the show before that stock returns are dragged into negative territory with inflation, emotion, taxes, fees and volatility. And what's new here today is that I took the volatility component and broke it all the way down for you. There is a real paradox out there in America and elsewhere. You know, people spend all this time learning about how work works, zero time learning about how money works. And yet money is the main reason that people go to work. So congratulations so far on educating yourself some more today. Suffice to say, compound interest does not build wealth. If you're focused on getting only your money to work for you, you are really missing out on leverage through OPM.


Keith Weinhold (00:22:38) - And the good news here is that you actually don't have to believe everything that you think. Even if you thought the same way for years or decades. Chances are you're by yourself when you're listening to me right now. So that way you can change your mind all on your own without anyone thinking that you're wishy washy. Is it iconoclastic? Yeah, sure it is. If you're going to live an outsized life, if you're going to have an outsized impact in this world and on others, then you don't want to get labeled as normal. I mean, me, myself. I want nothing to do with normal. You can learn more on topics like this with our Don't Quit Your Day Dream email letter that makes it visual for you. Get it free at get Rich education com slash letter I write every word of the letter myself again. Get it at get Rich or it's quicker while it's on your mind right now. Text gray to 66866 to get the letter. Text gray to 66866. More straight ahead on how to potentially achieve cash on cash returns of 20% plus with real estate today.


Keith Weinhold (00:23:58) - That's next. I'm Keith Reinhold. You're listening to get Rich education. Your bank is getting rich off of you. The national average bank account pays less than 1% on your savings. If your money isn't making 4%, you're losing your hard earned cash to inflation. Let the liquidity fund help you put your money to work with minimum risk. Your cash generates up to an 8% return with compound interest year in and year out. Instead of earning less than 1% sitting in your bank account, the minimum investment is just 25 K. You keep getting paid until you decide you want your money back there. Decade plus track record proves they've always paid their investors 100% in full and on time. And I would know, because I'm an investor, to earn 8%. Hundreds of others are text family 266866. Learn more about Freedom Family Investments Liquidity Fund on your journey to financial freedom through passive income. Text family to 66866. Role under the specific expert with income property you need. Ridge lending Group Nmls 42056. In gray history from beginners to veterans, they provided our listeners with more mortgages than anyone.


Keith Weinhold (00:25:21) - It's where I get my own loans for single family rentals up to four Plex's. Start your pre-qualification and chat with President Charlie Ridge personally. They'll even customize a plan tailored to you for growing your portfolio. Start at Ridge Lending Ridge lending


Ken (00:25:48) - This is Rich dad advisor Ken McElroy. Listen to get Rich education with Keith Reinhold and don't quit your daydream.


Keith Weinhold (00:26:06) - We're talking about how to profit more and faster than with buy and hold property with the BR real estate investing strategy will tell you more about a live virtual event tomorrow night, with more about it where you can attend from the comfort of your own home and have any of your questions answered in real time. And can is with me today to talk about it. Welcome in. Hello, Kate. Thank you. Thank you for the invitation to be.


Ken (00:26:32) - A part of the get Rich education podcast.


Keith Weinhold (00:26:34) - Oh, we're honored to have you. Tell us a little more about yourself. First, you're Memphis based and you're part of a real estate family. Your wife is a realtor.


Keith Weinhold (00:26:44) - Yes, that is true. I have been in.


Ken (00:26:46) - The real estate industry in Memphis, Tennessee since 1992. I believe I was born to be in real estate. If real estate's in my DNA. If you cut me open little houses, duplexes, commercial buildings and multifamily apartments will drip out. I am pure real estate.


Keith Weinhold (00:27:05) - And you definitely came up in the right place for that. For us major metros, you're in perhaps the best cap rate market. Now. A lot of people are familiar with fix and flip real estate, maybe something that they've seen on HGTV where you buy low, you fix it up and you sell it for more. In fact, a lot of people think that's what real estate investing means. And others, they think of real estate investing more passively by identifying a good property that's already fixed up for you with a tenant in it, and ready property management. That's sort of the turnkey way. Tell us more about the BR, where I think of it as using elements of both the fix and flip world and the buy and hold world, putting them together to produce high returns and even infinite returns.


Ken (00:27:54) - That is correct. So what we're doing and what we offer, it's a hybrid, turnkey and BR, we call it BR key a nice. So basically that acronym as you know it stands for buy, renovate, rent, refinance and repeat. And we've added the key to it because we do all of the turnkey worked for our investor clients. We do all of the heavy lifting. So we turn BR into a passive investment where we find properties through our sourcing, we vet the properties and then the properties are offered to investors in as is condition. We provide a desktop appraisal which provides a future estimated after repair value after the property has been renovated. We seek out appraisers who are certified, who are licensed in the areas in the markets that we provide properties in, so that we're not just shooting at the door on a future value, basing the values on what Trulia says or Zillow or Redfin and what have you. So it's a real certified value from a licensed appraiser. Then we have licensed contractors to provide the scope of work and an estimate on how much the renovations are going to cost.


Ken (00:29:24) - And then we do we have a relationship with an in-house property manager. The property manager markets the property, leases the property out, and our target market is partially section A, government subsidized tenants, because we found that in the Memphis, Tennessee area is that section eight pays more than market rate in most instances. And I like to say that section eight rent payments, the recession proof, they're Covid proof, they're pandemic proof. I have not received a call yet. And section eight says, hey, we could not get your section eight payment out because of Joe Biden not being able to sign the check, or he didn't work last week, or Donald Trump could not sign the check or what have you. But time and time again, those section eight payments, even during the pandemic, they always showed up at the beginning of the month without fail.


Keith Weinhold (00:30:25) - I have rented to section eight tenants myself, and I can attest to that. That check just keeps coming in. You have to have a case manager come in and take a look at the property.


Keith Weinhold (00:30:38) - Prior to that section eight tenant being placed. Section eight a government subsidized housing program for those that qualify. But now that we've talked about the tenant, some what which is the rent are if we look back at the first are in the borough that is the rehab. You could also call that first are renovation. And really what you're doing there is you're eliminating friction for a lot of people because one thing that turns. People away from the Bir or concerns them about the BR. Is that first r the rehab because they find it daunting or intimidating to manage contractors? A lot of people don't want to have to manage contractors, and those that do, they don't want to do it again. But the thing is, is that you formed a team of contractors, property managers, project managers to manage those contractors and lenders to assist with that entire BR key process, making it pretty hands off for the investor.


Ken (00:31:37) - That's absolutely correct. So we have the relationships with contractors your locally that we've vetted that have proven themselves.


Ken (00:31:46) - They're true blue and these contractors have withstood the test of time. We develop relationships with electricians, plumbers, heating and air conditioning guys, roofers, painters, flooring experts, guys that can do kitchen cabinets, countertops, everything from the router to the tuner. And we also have excellent relationships that we've developed not only with the big boxes, Home Depots, Lowe's, but there are actually many locally owned mom and pop family owned supply houses that we are able to get better prices on some items versus the big boxes. So if those savings are passed on to the investor clients that our project managers and contractors are renovating those properties for.


Keith Weinhold (00:32:41) - I want to talk more about how that's actually going the actual track record with that team. But before we do, if we talk bigger picture, let's look at some real numbers on an example property so that one can understand the overall process. On why BR is attractive to investors, and why they can put substantially less money into the deal than they can with what we would call a deal that's already completely done for you.


Keith Weinhold (00:33:08) - Turnkey.


Ken (00:33:09) - Yes, and I like to use a $100,000. It's a nice round number, right.


Keith Weinhold (00:33:16) - Inflation is basically it, but you can still find some.


Ken (00:33:19) - Yes. So an example said hypothetically, if we had a vetted property that was available to be purchased by an investor client, and that appraised value after repairs is estimated to be $100,000, we simply take 75% of that after repair value of $100,000, and we arrive at 75,000. So we work in reverse, in a sense. And if the contractor has estimated that the renovations, labor and material cost is going to be $25,000, 75,000, 75% of the 100,000, -$25,000 in renovation expenses that would leave $50,000. So the actual purchase price of the property would be $50,000 plus $25,000 in renovations. So the investors approximate all in is $75,000. That doesn't take into consideration title company fees, homeowners insurance. We encourage all of the investor clients to get a six months builder's risk policy from one of our sources that we use here locally, but of course, all of the investor clients are free to use or choose whomever they'd like to.


Ken (00:34:53) - So the property is purchased for 50,000. The renovations, which are high quality, are done for 25,000. So now the investor is all in for $75,000. Now we're at that second stage, and many times the renovations are completed before the property is rented. So though that second and third are kind of interchangeable, sometimes we the property's refinanced before it's rented, sometimes it's rented before it's refinance. So in a perfect world, the property has been rented to a client. So if the client's all in for $75,000 and we have what we created, our own 1% rule of thumb. So if the investor is all in for 75,000 and the numbers are still based on renting it for maybe 1% of the value. So we find that our rent versus price return is more than 1%. So in many cases we blow that 1% out of the water. We're talking about the.


Keith Weinhold (00:36:01) - Monthly rent being 1% or greater of the overall value or purchase. Price of the property.


Ken (00:36:06) - Yes, sir. That's true. That's correct. So after the property is rented for, let's say, $1,000 per month.


Ken (00:36:15) - Now it's time to get the property appraised. We do have lending partners that are very experienced with investment refinancing, whether it's conventional or whether it's DSC or refinancing. So now the appraiser comes out to the property after the investor client has made loan application. The investors appraiser comes out and voila, the property is totally renovated. It's rented out. The appraiser appraises the property for $100,000 plus or minus. It may appraise for 95, it may appraised for one T, and so on, so forth. So what happens with the investment refinancing the loan to value or LTV is usually 75%. It's not typical for the lender to refinance at 80% or 85% of the refinance. But with investment financing, refinancing nowadays is typically 75%, so the praise is for 100,000. The lender lends 75% of the 100,000, which is 75,000 on the refinance. So now the investor who has paid cash or possibly obtained a hard money loan or private financing in order to purchase the property, their coffers are replenished with it. 75,000 were either the hard money or the private.


Ken (00:37:42) - Long is paid off, and the investor now has a property that they've refinanced for 75,000. That's worth 100,000. But the key is now they've refinanced and they're at that final, or now they're able to repeat the process, rinse and repeat, re-up whatever you want that are to me. But it basically means you can reuse that $75,000 again to purchase your second property. Third property, you're able to scale quickly or pay off the hard money lender. And the hard money lender says, hey, I don't need this $75,000. Do you own it again to buy property number two? We're property number three. And it just goes on. And I'd like that word that to use key efficient.


Keith Weinhold (00:38:28) - Right. Because in at least one of the scenarios you described there, you would have no money left in the deal and 25% equity in the property.


Ken (00:38:37) - That is correct because even though the investor is all in for 75,000, that new roof, the new windows, the new luxury vinyl plank flooring, the new HVAC system and so on, so forth.


Ken (00:38:53) - Those improvements cause to happen is called force appreciation. It's worth more than $75,000 because of all of the improvements that have been made to $25,000 to new light fixtures, the pretty paint color, the new mailbox, the landscaping. So we found that many of the houses that we offer, they once were the ugly ducklings of the neighborhood. Now they're the beautiful swans of the neighborhood, and they're the homes and houses that people flock to that they prefer to living.


Keith Weinhold (00:39:30) - Yeah. So we're talking about some of those rehabs you might LVP the floor do a kitchen fluff up. By that I mean maybe you're saving and painting the cabinets, but replacing the countertops, new light fixtures, perhaps keeping bath tile in place, but glazing it and then bringing everything to code?


Ken (00:39:47) - Yes, sir. That's absolutely correct. And we do have a really nice design for our properties. We use really nice neutral colors when it comes to the tile, to the paint, the flooring, the vent hood color, so on, so forth.


Ken (00:40:02) - And you mentioned code enforcement, which we had excellent relationships with the Memphis Shelby County Code Enforcement officers, whether it comes to the electrical inspection, plumbing inspections, what have you, we have really good relationships with those government officials.


Keith Weinhold (00:40:20) - You might want exotic colors for your own home, but in a rental property you want to go neutral. It can take a while to rent a purple kitchen. Now talk to us about the the timeline to rehab and refinance a property. How many months or days does that take? And I'm looking for an not an optimistic scenario, but a realistic scenario and a real life track record of what you've done. Because I've known that our followers have bought a number of properties from you.


Ken (00:40:49) - Yes, our average turnaround time right now is approximately 90 days. The quickest turn that we've ever done from acquisition all the way to the final stage of refinancing was 32 days. But that particular property there was the scope of work of $15,000. It was really clean. Okay, already had a new roof, the AC system was already top knots, so there was just very few things that had to be delivered.


Ken (00:41:21) - But on average it's about 90 days from start to finish. And in this part of the country the weather's quite nice, especially during the summertime. It's very hot, but we are hit occasionally in the wintertime with snow and ice, and it paralyzed the city of Memphis because we're just not equipped the way the northeast is and some other parts of the country when it comes to snow and ice. So we push back our estimated time frame to complete a Berkey property during the winter months to about 120 days. But our average is 90 days, and we tend to we like to under-promise with the 90 days, but we may hit our target in 75 days or 80 days, and we just recently had some properties that we should be able to smash the all time record of 32 days, where we may be able to get from a buy to refinance done, and maybe 21 days.


Keith Weinhold (00:42:21) - Wow. That's the result of a well refined system. And I would submit to most any listener to try to do that across state lines or even in your own home market, as you're trying to manage contractors and codes and inspectors and appraisers and lenders and everything else, you're going to join us with our investment coach narration, co-hosting Gre's live virtual event.


Keith Weinhold (00:42:47) - Alex, a little bit more about what one can expect there. Attending the live virtual event to learn more about what.


Ken (00:42:54) - One can expect is that we will have, I guess, actual numbers on properties that are available, scopes of work, rental amounts that are based on our studies with the data that section eight provides, as well as the local market rents for cash paying tenants. So I do want to make it clear we do have cash paying tenants as well. But we do offer to the investor clients a choice. If we have a four bedroom property, for example, that section 8th May possibly pay 1700 a month for, and then all of a sudden we get a cash paying tenant that's willing to pay 1600. We present the information to the investor to say, hey, would you rather hold out for the $1,700 section eight tenant? Or would you rather go with the $1,600 cash flowing ticket that works at Blue Oval City, the electric vehicle plant that's on the outskirts of Memphis, about 30 miles outside of Memphis at the end.


Ken (00:44:01) - Who knows? Real soon. It was just announced yesterday that X, I and Elon Musk, they've chosen the city of Memphis to be the headquarters for the world's largest supercomputer. So we're looking forward to the benefits and economic boom that that's going to add to the Memphis market.


Keith Weinhold (00:44:23) - All right. So we've got some economic drivers behind this. Learn more about vetting tenants. Berkey and importantly, the value added here. By bringing that team, especially those contractors that are being managed for you with the Berkey join Jerry's live virtual event. It's where you can attend live in real time. You can ask questions if you wish that way, and you can do it all from your own home. Gree investment coach extraordinaire Naresh is going to co-host it along with my guest Ken. Here it is free to attend free learning and if you wish, expect a buying opportunity for property conducive to the BR. Often single family homes two, three and four bedroom properties in Investor Advantage Memphis, you'll learn which properties are right for this and which ones are not.


Keith Weinhold (00:45:10) - Attend tomorrow night it is Tuesday the 25th at 8:30 p.m. eastern, 530 Pacific. Attend tomorrow and sign up now at GR You can do it right now while it's top of mind for our live event that is at Gray Hey, it's been great having your insight. Thanks so much for coming on the show today.


Ken (00:45:33) - Thank you. You're welcome.


Keith Weinhold (00:45:40) - Between last year and this year, more followers have bought from this provider in this system than any other in the entire nation. Strong deals with less out of pocket for the investor. And maybe you don't prefer a section eight tenant. You can ask about that during the virtual event. And again, what was I saying here last week? This is the event that's a bigger deal than Olympic handball. Really though I would like for you to attend. This is entry level housing. So you're going to own a scarce asset that everyone wants. Expect to be in for a little of your own skin in the game, and you'll own a leveraged asset of tangible value that down the road.


Keith Weinhold (00:46:27) - Demographics say that people will desire to first rent from you and then later buy from you. If you think that it can benefit you and you like to learn, then I'd really like you to attend tomorrow night. I invite you Tuesday the 25th at 8:30 p.m. eastern, 530 Pacific. Register free now at Gray Until next week. I'm your host, Keith Wild. Don't quit your day dream.


Speaker 5 (00:46:58) - Nothing on this show should be considered specific, personal or professional advice. Please consult an appropriate tax, legal, real estate, financial or business professional for individualized advice. Opinions of guests are their own. Information is not guaranteed. All investment strategies have the potential for profit or loss. The host is operating on behalf of get Rich education LLC exclusively.


Keith Weinhold (00:47:26) - The preceding program was brought to you by your home for wealth building. Get rich


Direct download: GREepisode507_b.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 4:00am EDT

The homeownership rate has fallen due to low affordability. This means that there are more renters.

There are still just one-half as many housing units as America needs. But it had been one-quarter.

New duplexes, triplexes, and fourplexes are vanishing. I describe six reasons why.

Two entire US counties now have a median home price of $2M+. Learn where they are.

It’s better to be an investor than a landlord or flipper.

GRE Investment Coach, Naresh, and I discuss how to use a lower down payment to achieve a potential 20% cash-on-cash return with the BRRRR Strategy. Join our live, virtual event for this at:

Resources mentioned:

For access to properties or free help with a

GRE Investment Coach, start here:

Get mortgage loans for investment property: or call 855-74-RIDGE 

or e-mail:

Invest with Freedom Family Investments. 

You get paid first: Text FAMILY to 66866

For advertising inquiries, visit:

Will you please leave a review for the show? I’d be grateful. Search “how to leave an Apple Podcasts review” 

GRE Free Investment Coaching:

Best Financial Education:

Get our wealth-building newsletter free—

text ‘GRE’ to 66866

Our YouTube Channel:

Follow us on Instagram:


Keith’s personal Instagram:



Complete episode transcript:


Keith Weinhold (00:00:01) - Welcome to GRE. I'm your host, Keith Weinhold. Hold properties are vanishing, and sadly, they represent some really good property types that are hardly being built anymore. American housing is changing for good. Two entire U.S. counties now have median home values of $2 million or more. You'll learn where those are and learn about a specific real estate investing strategy, where investors are getting especially high yield returns in today's low affordability market. All today on get rich education.


Robert Syslo (00:00:37) - Since 2014, the powerful Get Rich education podcast has created more passive income for people than nearly any other show in the world. This show teaches you how to earn strong returns from passive real estate, investing in the best markets without losing your time being a flipper or landlord. Show host Keith Weinhold writes for both Forbes and Rich Dad Advisors, and delivers a new show every week. Since 2014, there's been millions of listeners downloads and 188 world nations. He has A-list show guests include top selling personal finance author Robert Kiyosaki. Get Rich education can be heard on every podcast platform.


Robert Syslo (00:01:09) - Plus it has its own dedicated Apple and Android listener. Phone apps build wealth on the go with the get Rich education podcast. Sign up now for the get Rich education podcast or visit get Rich


Corey Coates (00:01:23) - You're listening to the show that has created more financial freedom than nearly any show in the world. This is get rich education.


Keith Weinhold (00:01:39) - What we heard in 188 nations worldwide. I'm your host, Keith Weinhold, and you're listening to get Rich education. Last week, I covered a lot of bad news here as you and I uncovered some real estate problems. Of course, overall, when you're invested in real estate and obtain productive working income for yourself through tenants in their employment, you can almost always play another side of the coin and be profitable because, well, it really comes right back to the fact that real estate pays five ways simultaneously, for example, souring housing affordability. Well, that's bad for homeowners. That's bad news for people that are primarily want to be homeowners and not you. You're an investor. In fact, here's exactly what that means when you're the investor, the homeownership rate has fallen in in the past year.


Keith Weinhold (00:02:38) - It's gone from 66% down to 65.6% due to that low affordability. Okay. Well, that's just a 4/10 of a percent drop in the homeownership rate. And it is poised to fall further. Or what does that 4/10 really mean. Well, that's the proportion of Americans that don't own their homes. So then they have to rent. And this means that there are hundreds of thousands more American renters today than there were just a year ago. And that pushes up rental demand, rental occupancy and the price of rent itself. And that's what you get to capture off from a low affordability problem, which outsiders only think of as bad real estate news, because it is bad news through the lens of that one of your first time homebuyer. Now I want to tell you about the property types that are disappearing. Just vanishing today, and it's the degree to which it's happening that you probably aren't aware of. I'll also tell you why it's personally concerning to me, why this is all going on at all, and I don't even see any reason that it's going to turn around.


Keith Weinhold (00:03:52) - It's probably going to get worse. What's going on is basically that too many builders have thrown their duplex, triplex, and fourplex development plans out the car window like it's an Apple Corps on a summer road trip. They are vanishing. Yes, 2 to 4 unit properties vanishing. In fact, if you're a newsletter subscriber here, you got to see a jarring chart that shows this. And what you'll basically see is that in 2007, the number of 2 to 4 unit properties built just fell off a cliff. It flatlined, and it still hasn't gotten up. The amount constructed now is still just one half to one third of what it had been in pre global financial crisis years. Really they're only closer to a third. All right. So what we're talking about here is only about one third as many duplex triplex and fourplex starts today as there were 20 years ago. And this is sourced by the National Association of Homebuilders. And some call this entire phenomenon M triple M multi families missing middle. And whatever you call this disappearing act.


Keith Weinhold (00:05:10) - Before I get to the reasons for why this is happening, I've got to tell you that this disappearance, it hurts me a little. It's sort of heartfelt because as you know, I began this way with a fourplex that was my first ever property of any kind. You know, the story where I lived in one unit and rented out the other three. It was just an amazing way to start with a bang. Well, now, when we compare this paltry construction, this dearth of. construction today, when we compare that to both smaller property types and larger property types, that being single family homes and five plus unit apartment buildings, will construction of all three of these types fell hard around 2008. But here's the thing. Single family homes and five plus apartment buildings. They got back up around 2010 and they started resuming more building. But duplexes and fourplex, they never did. They never had that happen. The number coming out of the market that just kept flatlining. Those new starts. All right.


Keith Weinhold (00:06:16) - So why exactly is this going on with these vanishing 2 or 3 and four unit property construction types? Why this trend? Well, first, it's NIMBYism, not in my backyard ism primarily of those single family homeowners, because once people are comfy in owning their single family home. Well, then they don't want higher density duplexes in fourplex built in their area. They fear that it can lower their property values. It'll almost certainly increase the traffic around that area. And the second reason is that there simply just been less building overall of most all housing types. And I have discussed this elsewhere, so I won't get into it again. Yes, it is that erstwhile housing supply crash. A third reason for these vanishing 2 to 4 unit properties is the need for zoning reform and the adoption of what's called light touch density. Light touch density. That means a zoning strategy for more dense housing. And what are we up to now for? The fourth reason is that builders, they find more scale efficiencies when they build larger apartments.


Keith Weinhold (00:07:25) - Fifth is limits in international building codes, in international residential codes. And the sixth reason is that this trend began around 2008. These more recent work from home lifestyle starting in 2020. That means that residents can live in single family homes, and they tend to be further from the urban core, rather than 2 to 4 unit properties. And this lifestyle trend right here, that can mean that this disappearing trend for this property type continues. And there you go. They are the six reasons for why. If you were 2 to 4 unit properties are being built today, drastically fewer. And I lament this fact because see duplex the four plex neighborhoods, they can have good walkability where you don't always need a car to get everywhere. And yet at the same time, they still have ample green space. Now, conversely, some fourplex neighborhoods, you know, they can get to look and really junky. Well, they all have different owners. And then there are dumpsters all over the place, like my first fourplex was, and like my second fourplex was as well.


Keith Weinhold (00:08:33) - I really hope that builders become more attracted to the 2 to 4 unit space. See, with giant large apartment complexes, say 300 units. Well, the builder has to wait until the construction of all of those 300 units are done until they can start filling it with rent paying tenants. So therefore builders have to wait longer to start getting that rent income. But instead, construction of this missing middle housing that can be broken into phases. And that way units can be open when they're completed. And that provides early rent revenue to the builder and 2 to 4 unit properties. I mean, they really are an investor sweet spot, but due to builder and lifestyle trends like I'm describing, fewer are being built new. But please remember there were many missing middle properties built decades ago and they can still make good investment properties into the future. In fact, the first two fourplex that I bought were both built in the mid 80s, so there's still plenty that are already out there. The takeaway here for you is that you're going to be seeing fewer new ones, and that means that duplexes to fourplex is now take up a smaller proportion of America's housing stock, and that portion is positioned to become smaller and smaller going forward.


Keith Weinhold (00:09:56) - So it's not that death of these properties. We even have home builders at Gray Marketplace right now with new build 2 to 4 plex. So it isn't their death, but they are dying, waning in number. Now, Jerry recently got Ahold of some jaw dropping info here. I my gosh, now remember a few years ago, maybe even ten or more years ago when you probably heard something like certain small towns in California, Silicon Valley. They now had median priced homes that hit the million dollar mark. And you know, when you first heard that, you might have thought, oh, wow, it's not just neighborhoods, but entire towns in aggregate have hit the million dollar mark in some high priced American places. Well, then get ready for this. As housing affordability makes headlines in California in its wealthiest cities, continue to fight building more housing. We have two Bay area counties, not towns, but entire counties that have hit a milestone. The median price for sold homes there has climbed to $2 million or more.


Keith Weinhold (00:11:15) - We're not just talking 1 million anymore, and we're not just talking about one upper crust town, but two entire California counties now have median home prices of $2 million or more. And notice these are not asking prices. No speculation here. These are the values, the amounts that they have actually sold for. And this is according to a recent California Association of Realtors report. Median homes are now $2 million plus in which two Bay area counties, you might wonder? Well, first, Santa Clara County, which includes San Jose, they notched an even $2 million back in April. And yes, this is more than San Francisco County's $1.8 million. And the second county, it spirals even higher than that. The second California county, with median home prices of 2 million plus is San Mateo County. It's basically a county that lies between San Francisco and San Jose. And that's where the median home price sold for in San Mateo County, California, $2.17 million. Not just one upper crust town, but an entire county.


Keith Weinhold (00:12:38) - Not just $1 million, not even $2 million anymore, but $2.17 million. And this is not for a fancy, lavish home. This is just the median priced home in the middle and San Mateo County that is home to the nation's most expensive zip code, by the way. Atherton, California, where the median home price tops the charts nationally at $7.1 million. That's that is according to Compass Real Estate. And if that's not enough, homes are still flying off the shelves there. They're days on market is now at the lowest since 2022. And though all this sounds pretty astonishing right now, you know what? If you are listening to this episode ten years from now, well into the 2030s, you might think these were the good old days here. How quaint. Because over the next ten years, we all expect more inflation, and we've still got more housing shortage years between now and say, ten years into the future. And of course, here at URI, we don't tend to focus on the high priced markets, which tend to be on the coasts, things like this.


Keith Weinhold (00:13:55) - Really, it's just a harbinger of what's to come to more parts of the nation later on. What we do here is we help you win in real estate without being a landlord and without being a flipper. As a savvy investor that tends to buy either new or fixed up properties and might have a manager manage them for you, hands off is the place to be. Hands off is being an investor, and you get the best tax advantages this way to when your hands off and you know something. Some people that get into real estate investing, they think that they have to be a flipper, or that they have to be a landlord in order to make it profitable. Now, there's nothing wrong with those two disciplines. So much flipping or landlord. I was a landlord for a little while on my own properties. Most of my investment career. I use a property manager and I never flipped. It's just that these things flipping and landlord, they're not any sort of prerequisite to you being a successful investor. You can shortcut all of that with turnkey real estate investing or like with a different strategy that we're going to talk about later today.


Keith Weinhold (00:15:04) - What most people really want is the financial freedom that real estate investing brings. But in order to get there, it's often not the route that you think it is. It's typically not flipping or landlords. And, you know, really it's this way with a lot of things. For example, say that you want to own in ice cream business. Well, most people think that they have to start their own ice cream business from scratch. And like you need to find a space and you need to buy all the equipment and develop systems and go through the excruciating process of hiring all of your staff. No, a lot of times you can shortcut all of that by not starting your own ice cream business, but instead studying, vetting, and buying an existing ice cream business without having to start your own from scratch. Be strategic, study a little, shortcut the process and get in where it's profitable. You want the benefit of owning real estate without having to use a nail gun yourself, or being a manager where you're 25 tenants can text you.


Keith Weinhold (00:16:17) - What kind of life are you building for yourself? Then you want the benefit of owning an ice cream business. The way to get to the end goal. The path there is often different than you think. And here's another example that I can relate to, but I think that you will too. Do you have a favorite real estate? Influencer out there and they think about starting a podcast. Well, I personally know three real estate podcasters out there that have all quit. They produce some episodes and all three quit doing their podcast. And these are just among people I know and just real estate thought leaders. Just that space and all. Recent hosting your own podcast platform is a ton of work from. You need to have a huge bank of your own original content, to having the ability to book big name guests and then making sure they're prepared to. Making sure you have the right marketing team so that a podcast actually reaches the right people. It is work, work, work, and seemingly no one in this world knows that better than me.


Keith Weinhold (00:17:21) - With 500 plus episodes reliably released every single week since 2014, and we don't replay old shows either, there is nothing passive about this. There are so many shows today that if your favorite real estate influencer starts one, they're going to be competing with a lot that are already out there. I mean, anymore, even celebrities that start podcasts, they usually don't get any substantial reach or traction. All these people that start and quit their podcasts, they were too slow to realize that actually they didn't want to host a podcast. What they really wanted is for their voice to be heard. Well, the way to shortcut that, like with turnkey real estate investing or with buying an existing ice cream business, is that that influencer should have developed a strategy for being a guest on other shows that are already popular and established, probably by hiring an experienced and connected booking agent. That way, you've outsourced all of that marketing and research activity to another show that already did that for you. So the point is, be clear on getting what you want.


Keith Weinhold (00:18:34) - What is the goal that you want first, it's probably a large real estate portfolio built for leverage and income, and then work your way back to try to find the most efficient route to get there. And there are often shorter paths to get there than what you first thought. Now, when we talk about where are the best real estate deals today, you have to look harder than you did, say, 8 to 10 years ago. Coming up shortly, you'll have the pleasure of hearing an in-house chat with I in one of Gre's own investment coaches. We're going to talk about a strategy that specific and proven but underutilized in order to recapture those higher cash on cash returns like you could have gotten back in, say, 2015 and 2016. And for a time, I had been talking about how Newbuild properties and their builder interest rate buy downs, that they're really the place to be. And that's still true, but not to the extent that it was just a year ago, because today some builders, they're not paying down your interest rate for you as much as they did last year.


Keith Weinhold (00:19:39) - They're asking you to pay more toward it. Now. A few minutes ago, I told you about America's vanishing duplexes to fourplex. And if you're one of our newsletter readers, you got to see a jarring chart or two that demonstrates exactly what I was talking about there. And also in our newsletter, I show you great maps, real estate maps that beautifully demonstrate housing market trends and where the opportunities are for you. Also, in a recent letter, I showed you exactly where I'm getting 8% interest paid to me and what's basically a savings account. If you don't already subscribe, it is free. Our email letter is called the Don't Quit Your Day Dream letter. It's concise, valuable info that's just good, clean content that I put directly into your hands. It is easier to use than a website. Today's websites have paywalls and cookies, disclaimers or pop up ads. This is just the good stuff directly from me, straight to you. And you can get the letter now at get Rich education com slash letter that's get rich education com slash letter.


Keith Weinhold (00:20:50) - In a world of AI and bots, I actually write every word of the don't quit your daydream letter myself, just like I have from day one. And another easy way to start the free letter is text gray to 66866. Just do it right now while it's on your mind. Text gray to 6686616. I'm Keith Reinhold. You're listening to get Rich education. Your bank is getting rich off of you. The national average bank account pays less than 1% on your savings. If your money isn't making 4%, you're losing your hard earned cash to inflation. Let the liquidity fund help you put your money to work with minimum risk. Your cash generates up to an 8% return with compound interest year in and year out. Instead of earning less than 1% sitting in your bank account, the minimum investment is just 25 K. You keep getting paid until you decide you want your money back there. Decade plus track record proves they've always paid their investors 100% in full and on time. And I would know, because I'm an investor, to earn 8%.


Keith Weinhold (00:22:02) - Hundreds of others are text family 266866. Learn more about Freedom Family Investments Liquidity Fund on your journey to financial freedom through passive income. Text family to 66866. Role under the specific expert with income property, you need Ridge lending group and MLS for 2056 injury history from beginners to veterans. They provided our listeners with more mortgages than anyone. It's where I get my own loans for single family rentals up to four Plex's. Start your prequalification and chat with President Charlie Ridge. Personally, they'll even customize a plan tailored to you for growing your portfolio. Start at Ridge Lending Ridge lending This is peak prosperity.


Robert Syslo (00:23:00) - Chris Martinson, listen to get Rich education with Keith Arnold and don't quit your daydream.


Keith Weinhold (00:23:15) - Hey, would like to welcome in Gray's extraordinary investment coach. He's booksmart because he's got his MBA. He street smart because he's an active direct real estate investor, just like I am. Before joining gray back in 2021, he worked for financial publishing companies and in the banking sector, too and elsewhere. And today is an investment coach here.


Keith Weinhold (00:23:36) - He helps beginning real estate investors understand the process of acquiring rental property, and he helps veteran investors optimize their strategies to save on taxes and more. Hey, it's terrific to welcome back Naresh Vizard. Thanks a lot Keith. It's been a while, but I'm looking forward to talking real estate before we're done. Today, we're going to tell you about an upcoming live GRE virtual event, where you learn how to get 20 to 25% of immediate built in equity through real estate. And before we do the race, let's talk about what's really going on. Besides giving GRE devotees free education and guidance like you do, you also help them find the best deals on income properties nationwide and for a time, brand new build to rent properties they look good in. Many still do with a lot of rate buy downs into the fives and even the fours on those new build properties. But this year, I learned that builders aren't contributing to buying down the race for the investor like they had last year, and that the onus seems to be more on the investor to buy the rate down with some of these builders.


Keith Weinhold (00:24:44) - So tell us more about what's happening in America's build to rent sector. Well, Keith, build to rent. For those who don't know, it's been around here at GRA. Bill to rent asset classes, build to rent real estate. But it's the concept of builders building real estate properties with the intention of selling them to investors so they can rent it out. So right now I live in a house that was built, and I bought it because the builder intended for somebody to buy it and live in it. That's not built to rent. Build to rent is the idea of.


Naresh Vissa (00:25:16) - Specifically selling it to investors like our listeners, like our loyal followers who live out of state and who want to rent the properties out to tenants. Now, Build to Rent was very hot and it's still popular. I don't want to call it hot, but it's still popular for those who want new construction properties. However, the rehabs are making a furious comeback because there was about a four year period from 2019 to 23 or so where you just couldn't find good cash flowing rehabs.


Naresh Vissa (00:25:50) - Right. And when I say rehabs, I mean these older properties that were built 50 years ago, maybe as long as 120 years ago there we have some properties in our inventory that were built in the late 1800s, and they've just kept being rehabbed and rehabbed and renovated. Buildings are making a furious comeback because they're cash flowing better. Previously, they were just cash flowing marginally better than new construction built to rent properties. Now, especially with a strategy called ver, which we'll talk about some more, you can have the opportunity to get cash on cash returns back to what you remember in 2016, 2015 where we're talking 15, 16% cash on cash returns. I mean, some of our BR clients or listeners who ended up buying BRS, they're doing 2021 all the way up to 30% cash on cash returns. So BR simply means buy, rehab, rent, refinance, repeat the cycle. So that's B followed by for Rs b r r r r buy, rehab, rent, refinance. Repeat the process again.


Naresh Vissa (00:27:10) - And it's during that refinance where investors are getting a good chunk of their down payment back. Because what happens in that refinance is after you rehab it and you read it, you rent it out at the target rent, which almost all of these are renting out at very aggressive high target rents. When you refinance it, the property appraises at a value that's much, much greater post rehab than when you initially bought it. And that's where you get essentially your money back. You can choose to keep it in with the mortgage company so you have more equity in the property, or you can take the cash back and use it to buy more BR properties. It's become a very popular. Form of real estate investing. People think when they hear this. Well, it sounds like flipping, right. This is not flipping. Flipping is kind of like day trading. You're looking to make a quick buck, whereas in this case you're not selling the property. You're keeping the property with the intention of renting it out and collecting the cash flow from your tenant.


Naresh Vissa (00:28:19) - So that's in a nutshell, what BRR is. And we are having a live event on Tuesday, June 25th at 8:30 p.m. Eastern Time. That's Tuesday, June 25th at 8:30 p.m. eastern. Time to talk about and go over this BR process. The bird key process or listeners are familiar with turnkey. Well we have BR key which is similar except it's using the BR method. And Keith, you probably know this and you've talked about it a little bit on your podcast. BR has become the most popular strategy that our investors are utilizing this year, 2024.


Keith Weinhold (00:29:01) - Yeah. Now back to the build to render the new build properties is attractive as they can be because they attract a certain quality of tannin and they're not going to have any maintenance or repair issues, most likely for quite a while. The thing with those is, oh, you might pay 300 K or more for a new build. Single family home in the builder rent style with 20% down payment, 5% for closing costs, you're out of pocket. 75 K.


Keith Weinhold (00:29:30) - One reason that this has become the most popular strategy for gray followers we're talking about here. The BR strategy is that you could come out of pocket with a lot less to begin with.


Naresh Vissa (00:29:42) - That's number one. Number one is we have some GRE followers who went into this Berkey and they put no money down. They got lucky. They initially bought the property, and the property appraised so much that they got their money back and their down payment was actually zero. They didn't make money on it, but what they allocated, what they thought that they would allocate 25% down, they ended up using that money since they got it back to buy a second property and then a third property and then a fourth party. We have one guy who bought six properties, all birds, because he didn't get I don't want to say, look, we're not making promises that you're going to put 0% down. That's not the promises that we're making. The worst case scenario is that you put 25% down and that's your standard real estate investment.


Naresh Vissa (00:30:27) - But there is a chance that you could put 15% down or 10% down if the rehab turns out really well. And if you get a good appraiser, there's a chance it can happen. But the goal here, again, is not to make a quick buck or to house hack. We're not taking shortcuts here. The goal here is simply to buy a property renovated or rehab it and drive up the rent price, drive up the value of the property, put a good tenant in there and call it a day. Collect those cash flows. Now I do want to say a few things about that process. So like I said, the first thing that you do is you buy. So first you buy, then you rehab. You do not have to do we call it Berkey because everything is done for you. So when people hear this, they're like, oh, this sounds like I live in Florida. I don't want to go to Memphis. And by the way, this specific market is in Memphis, Tennessee that we're focusing on.


Naresh Vissa (00:31:26) - We have burrs in Baltimore, Maryland and Philadelphia, Pennsylvania and Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. But we've identified Memphis as not just the hottest, but it just makes the most sense numbers wise. And so I want to go back to the point of, hey, you don't have to physically go or even go on Google and find handymen or rehab ers to do this for you, our Berkey provider. The best part is they do it all for you. It's completely taken care of. You literally just sign some papers. Once you decide that you like a property and the specs of the property, you sign some papers. They take care of it. The rehab takes about 90 days. Then from rehab to closing, it takes another 40 days or so. And then from closing to someone signing a lease that takes another 30 days to find somebody, stick them in there and takes another 30 days after that for the tenant to move in. So overall, this process can actually take just for one property. You can take six months.


Keith Weinhold (00:32:26) - Now. Naresh has touched on it somewhat. One conventional problem with the Burr strategy by rehab rent, refinance, repeat is that first are the rehab because it involves vetting and managing contractors, which is a real nightmare for many. So instead, we're talking about tapping into a system with a proven team of contractors and lenders and project managers to make it easy. It's known as Berkey, and it's in profitable Memphis.


Naresh Vissa (00:32:54) - Profitable Memphis. And I'll say this about Memphis, we're going to talk. Way more about this on the webinar. Highly recommend people go to GRI webinars. Com gri You can sign up for the webinar there. It's actually live. So this is not like something that you just can show up to whenever you want. It's a live event on Tuesday, June 25th at 8:30 p.m. Eastern Time. That's Tuesday, June 25th at 8:30 p.m. Eastern Time. Great is how you can register. And like you said, we could have focused on Baltimore, Maryland or Pittsburgh. Memphis has really and I myself by the way, own five properties and four in Memphis proper.


Naresh Vissa (00:33:42) - And one is in the Memphis area and Mississippi, a suburb of of Memphis. And this I don't want to call it a town, because Memphis used to be one of the most popular towns in the south back in the day. But this city has really come up as a result of pandemic, of population growth, of even inflation. We've seen rents go up, we've seen the population go up. Memphis is not what you think of from eight years ago. Seven years ago when I first bought my properties. I'll admit, when I bought my first property seven years ago in Memphis, I had a lot of problems with tenants. I had a lot of problems with the city. I didn't like what I was reading about the police department, just all sorts of things. Not the police department, just crime in general. And Memphis has really turned itself around. Not completely turned itself around, but it's gotten better. And we're seeing it just on the investment side because that's where we're seeing appreciation growth. My personal properties, they're up since 2020, since January 2020, I was when I closed all my last Memphis property.


Naresh Vissa (00:34:49) - They're all up at least 50% in value. So it's a market that's still appreciating. But the most important thing because we are cash flow investors, not necessarily appreciation investors. It's great to get the appreciation, but the rents keep going up. And I actually today I've talked to a Berkey client, great loyal Jerry listener and follower who ended up buying three properties, and she's on her fourth one, or about to do a fourth one with this Memphis market provider. And when she told me her rents, I was blown away at how much these properties were renting for before the rehab. So it's not just the appreciation again, that goes up after the rehab, how much they were renting for before the rehab. We're talking less than $800 a month and post rehab. Her rents went up by nearly 50%, about 45% on average. House rehab is like three bedroom, one and a half bathroom. Homes initially she bought them. This is how a lot of the properties are. They only had two bedrooms and they converted one of the spaces.


Naresh Vissa (00:36:05) - The rehab were converted at no extra. You know, it's all inclusive of the rehab charges. They were able to find space in a lot of these properties that were two bedrooms to create a third bedroom and turn them into three bedroom properties instead of two bedroom properties, which also improves the value of the home. And you can get another body in there and increase the rent. So, Jerry, listeners have been really, really happy with this burpee process because at the end of the day, you really do get more bang for your buck. Yes, new construction overall. It's just safer. We have tons of great new construction providers, especially in Florida, whom we recommend, but this is an alternative for those people who don't have $100,000 sitting in the bank ready to invest in a new construction, single family, or a new construction duplex. The Berkey, I mean, really all you need is about 20, $25,000 to do it. And like I said, if you get lucky, you could get a decent portion of that back after the rehab.


Keith Weinhold (00:37:08) - Well, you bring up so many good points there in the race. For one thing, with real estate, you can intentionally improve the value. That's something that you cannot do if you own a stock or if you own cryptocurrency, or if you own gold, you can help control what your investment is worth. And a lot of that happens here in the rehab process. Well, the race would love to tell you more, including walking you through an example with numbers, but that's the best place for him to do it. That is on the live event next week because it is co-hosted by narration. You can join the live virtual event from the comfort of your own home. You can ask questions and have them answered in real time. It is all free and we'll also be sharing special off market Berkey inventory. In Memphis for two, three and four bedroom properties, so go ahead and attend on June 25th. Which again is next Tuesday. Be sure to register now at GR Just been great to walk through the Berkey.


Keith Weinhold (00:38:12) - Thanks so much for coming back on the show.


Naresh Vissa (00:38:14) - Thank you. It's been a pleasure.


Keith Weinhold (00:38:21) - Oh good info from Gree investment coach Naresh as always. Next week's live event. That could be a bigger deal than the Paris Olympics this summer and this year's presidential election combined. Oh yes. Well, at least it expects to be more profitable for you than those other events. It will also be more entertaining when you join as an attendee live next week. Certainly more entertaining and informative than Olympic handball and Olympic race walking, no doubt about that. I don't think I've offended any race walking fans because there are only perhaps five in the world. In any case, BR is a process by which, after you buy months later, you can expect to refinance at a higher valuation since the property has been rehabbed from your initial purchase, and then you get a big chunk of your own down payment back, meaning you have less invested in the deal. And that's why you get a higher cash on cash return. Because cash and cash return all that is, is your annual cash flow divided by your initial investment or your starting equity position.


Keith Weinhold (00:39:37) - The last R in BR is repeat. You can repeat sooner because you did get some of your invested cash back. And that's part of what makes the strategy so effective. Now is part of your refi. You might get a post appraisal rehab that's so high you essentially get all of your down payment money returned to you, at which point it would be an infinite return because you don't have anything invested in the deal. But you should not count on having all of it returned, just a lot of it or most of it. Next week's live event is where the BR real estate investing strategy gets introduced to a wider swath of America one last time. Attend live next Tuesday. The 25th. I really encourage you to check it out. Be sure to sign up for the virtual GRE live event now! It's pretty quick and easy to do at GR Until next week, I'm your host, Keith Weintraub. Don't quit your day dream.


Speaker 5 (00:40:41) - Nothing on this show should be considered specific, personal or professional advice.


Speaker 5 (00:40:45) - Please consult an appropriate tax, legal, real estate, financial or business professional for individualized advice. Opinions of guests are their own. Information is not guaranteed. All investment strategies have the potential for profit or loss. The host is operating on behalf of yet Rich education LLC exclusively.


Robert Syslo (00:41:09) - The preceding program was brought.


Keith Weinhold (00:41:10) - To you by your home for wealth building. Get Rich

Direct download: GREepisode506_.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 4:00am EDT

Big capital gains tax bills are hitting more home sellers. Exemptions exist for up to $250K single, $500K married.

Bad housing affordability means a low home ownership rate, hence, more renters.

The homeownership rate has dropped from 66.0% to 65.6% in the last year.

I have a hole in the roof of a rental single-family home, with about $10K in damage. Learn how I handle it.

Two of the first three income properties that I bought performed poorly.

VP of Market Economics at, Daren Blomquist joins me. We learn why foreclosure activity is 10% to 20% below pre-pandemic levels.

Learn about judicial and non-judicial foreclosure states.  

From homeowners surveyed, the top concern about falling into delinquency are rising insurance and property taxes.

Auction bidders are confident about the real estate market. They’re willing to pay more, which is 60% of ARV nationally.

You can bid on distressed properties with your phone via

Opportunity Zones are generally working.

Resources mentioned:

Nation’s Largest Online RE Auction Marketplace:

For access to properties or free help with a

GRE Investment Coach, start here:

Get mortgage loans for investment property: or call 855-74-RIDGE 

or e-mail:

Invest with Freedom Family Investments. 

You get paid first: Text FAMILY to 66866

For advertising inquiries, visit:

Will you please leave a review for the show? I’d be grateful. Search “how to leave an Apple Podcasts review” 

GRE Free Investment Coaching:

Best Financial Education:

Get our wealth-building newsletter free—

text ‘GRE’ to 66866

Our YouTube Channel:

Follow us on Instagram:


Keith’s personal Instagram:



Complete episode transcript:


Speaker Weinhold** ((00:00:00)) - - Welcome to GRE! I'm your host, Keith Weinhold, talking about a lot of housing market problems today. Capital gains taxes hitting more home sellers. Home affordability is still bad. The American homeownership rate is falling. I've got roof damage on one of my own properties. Then an update on American mortgage delinquencies and foreclosures. It's mostly bad real estate news today on Get Rich Education.


Speaker Syslo** ((00:00:29)) - - Since 2014, the powerful Get Rich education podcast has created more passive income for people than nearly any other show in the world. This show teaches you how to earn strong returns from passive real estate, investing in the best markets without losing your time being a flipper or landlord. Show host Keith Reinhold writes for both Forbes and Rich Dad Advisors, and delivers a new show every week. Since 2014, there's been millions of listeners downloads and 188 world nations. He has A-list show guests include top selling personal finance author Robert Kiyosaki. Get Rich education can be heard on every podcast platform. Plus it has its own dedicated Apple and Android listener. Phone apps build wealth on the go with the get Rich education podcast.


Speaker Syslo** ((00:01:06)) - - Sign up now for the Get Rich education podcast or visit


Speaker Coates** ((00:01:14)) - - You're listening to the show that has created more financial freedom than nearly any show in the world. This is get rich education.


Speaker Weinhold** ((00:01:30)) - - We're gonna go from Bavaria, Germany, to Batavia, New York, and across 188 nations worldwide. I'm Keith Weinhold, and you're listening to Get Rich education. There is a large online source of foreclosure and bank owned properties that you won't find on the MLS. In fact, they are the largest in the nation, and their VP of Market Economics will be here with us later today. Home price appreciation. That has been wonderful for the last several years. But one negative consequence is the fact that more home sellers now are getting hit with big capital gains tax bills. Now we'll discuss income property shortly, but when it comes to primary residences, you probably know that if you are single, you won't pay any capital gains tax on the first 250 K profit of your sale. That 250 K exemption. That is only half of what married couples enjoy.


Speaker Weinhold** ((00:02:29)) - - They don't have to pay tax on the first 500 K of profit. Yes, a $500,000 exemption on capital gains for married couples. So basically, single people in high priced markets like you often find on the coasts, they get hit the hardest. Married couples in lower priced markets more toward the heartland and in the South. Those married couples, they're more likely to get away without paying any tax on the profit from their home sale. All right, well, just what proportion of homes are we talking about here? Well, last year, 8% of sales had capital gains of over 500 K. All right, well that potentially makes them exposed to the tax hit. Compare that to a couple decades ago. That share was just over 1%. So it's gone from 1% to 8%. These are exorbitant capital gains tax events. And you know what this does. People trying to avoid that it keeps even more homes off the market. Now it's not as pronounced as the well-documented interest rate lock in effect okay. Call this the capital gains tax lock.


Speaker Weinhold** ((00:03:46)) - - In effect people avoid the tax by not selling. And it makes some older people age in place. That's part of what's going on here. Because if the homeowner keeps it until they die, then the heirs, they might be able to sell it tax free due to the tax laws and capital gains taxes. Like, what rate do you actually pay that can be as high as around 20% on you for selling your primary residence if the gain exceeds those thresholds? And yeah, those thresholds, they haven't moved with inflation in quite a long time. Now, understand that right now you are living in an era where many Americans, they can't afford to live in the home that they live in right now if they tried to repurchase it at today's prices. So again, it's not the mortgage rate lag in effect here. It's the purchase price paid lock in effect. Now look, yes, overall I am a real estate market optimist. You are too, when you understand how real estate pays you five ways. But as far as anyone saying something like, oh, there is never been a better time to buy, that doesn't make any sense.


Speaker Weinhold** ((00:05:02)) - - Now. At the same time, I don't see any evidence that waiting is going to do you any favors, but there have obviously been some better times to buy. In fact, do you know the best year in modern history that I can think of for buying real estate? Any idea it was the year 2013? Yeah, 2013. That's when prices were low because they still hadn't bounced much off of the GFC lows and mortgage rates. They actually were in the absurdly low threes back in 2013. Now starting in 2021 you know I have been on record on this show. I've been on record on television and on our own YouTube channel here and in Forbes and elsewhere. Since then, I've said that home prices, they're not poised to fall, they're going to stay stable or they're going to keep going up. I was perhaps one of the earlier people to point that 3 or 4 years ago that the low housing supply and the government safety nets that won't let people lose their homes, those things keep the markets buoyant.


Speaker Weinhold** ((00:06:16)) - - Now, today, I see more signs that prolonged bad affordability will slow down. Home price growth in that part is bad for investors, of course. Prolonged. Bad affordability. That means something good for income centric investors at the same time, sort of like David Stockman and I touched on last week here. Yes. Souring affordability. What that means is a falling homeownership rate that would make sense in the homeownership rate. That means that just what it sounds like, that is the proportion of American homes that are occupied by their owner in the past year. Yeah, the homeownership rate has fallen, but not too much yet because there are some lag effects and other factors to account for. Like, imagine if there are new zero money down loan programs that are made available. You can see how that would make homes more affordable, even if rates and prices and wages stayed the same. So there are X factors out there and lag effects out there. In the past year, the homeownership rate has fallen from 66% down to 65.6%.


Speaker Weinhold** ((00:07:33)) - - Not too much of a slide, just 4/10 of 1%. That is a Fred stat sourced through the Census Bureau. All right. So what's that really mean if you're looking for income. Well, what that means is that there are now hundreds of thousands of additional renters today than there were just one year ago. And the number of renters, those that aren't homeowners, that looks to increase in both absolute and relative terms. There's a lot of people expect the homeownership rate to continue to drop from here. Now, no investor conditions are absolutely ideal everywhere you look. In fact, of the first three investment properties that I personally bought in my life, only one of those three went really well. It was that first ever fourplex I bought because it appreciated from 295 K to 425 K in just three and a half years, and it provided some cash flow and even a place for me to live. But the second property I bought, which was also a fourplex, it hardly cash flow because I bought it at 90% loan to value, and I also bought it in 2007.


Speaker Weinhold** ((00:08:46)) - - Not great timing, so its value dropped. I was a pretty new real estate investor then, and when its value dropped, it didn't return to the 530 K value that I bought it for for about six years. And then I got wiser and I started buying across state lines, since that's where the best deals often are. Well, this was then my third investment property, a brick single family home that cost 153 K in the Dallas-Fort worth area. And the main reason I bought it is because it was cheap, which was a mistake. It was also in a growing area, but I couldn't keep it occupied, so I soon sold it for about the same price that I bought it for. All right. But even in those far less than ideal beginnings for me, two of my first three properties, they weren't disasters, but they weren't a great experience either. Yet I still got some leverage, a little cash flow. I got tenant made principal pay down all the while, tax benefits all the while, and that inflation profiting benefit.


Speaker Weinhold** ((00:09:52)) - - And I did then find myself better off overall. Despite that the appreciation and the cash flow weren't all that great. If you blend those first three properties together and today, perhaps a lot like you or what you want to do. I own properties in multiple markets, and I remotely made as the property managers in those markets. And you know, just yesterday I got an email from one of my property managers about roof damage to one of my properties. It's a rental single family home. It's going to be about $10,000 worth of repair work. Some bad news and the way I'm hailing it is a way that you might think of handling a real estate problem. I sure don't just send off a $10,000 check right away and chalk it up as a loss, and ask myself how many months it's going to take me to make that up. The first thing that you can do in this situation is check to see if you have a home warranty that covers it in full or in part. Whether you bought your property new or renovated, a warranty might apply.


Speaker Weinhold** ((00:10:58)) - - It actually does not in my case here. Well, if the warranty doesn't cover your issue, of course, check with your insurance provider and see what your deductible is there. Consider that when insurance premiums have risen sharply in a lot of markets, you need to get something back for that premium that you're paying in a lot of cases. All right. And if those things don't work, then don't just take the first quote that your property manager gives you that they got from the first contractor, which is. Ten K in my case. For a substantial work item, ask your property manager to obtain at least three quotes for you. That's reasonable. And then look at the most competitive of those three quotes. So to review here three ways to avoid paying. For example a full 10-K. In my case it's your warranty, it's your insurance. And if you feel like you must come out of pocket, then get three quotes in order to reduce your cost. And here's the thing you don't do these things yourself.


Speaker Weinhold** ((00:12:03)) - - What you do is you ask your manager to do these things and make it easy for you. Your manager should check with your insurance policy and they should check on your warranty. And then you can back it up and take a look at it. If you don't like the answer, they should obtain the roofing contractor quotes for you to. You are paying your manager for this stuff, maybe 8 or 10% in a management fee, and that should not be for nothing. Have them do this stuff that's their job and ask them to do it. Because if you don't just watch, they'd be happy to have you do it for them. Don't. You don't have to. So we're talking about mitigating your out-of-pocket cost in your time expended when you have a real estate issue, like a hole in a roof of one of my single family rentals. Now sometimes you're going to get caught in some snafu. But again, our strategy here is that you're usually not even holding any one rental property for more than 7 to 10 years, because by that time, it's accumulated sufficient equity so that you can make a tax deferred exchange up to another property, keep leveraging that equity, because the rate of return from equity is always zero.


Speaker Weinhold** ((00:13:16)) - - Now, that process, that 7 or 10 years, that might be on the slower end. Now though, since the property that you consider relinquishing is going to have a lower mortgage rate than your replacement property, it will. And one other thing to keep in mind here it's about providing America with that clean, safe, affordable, functional housing. What that means is that while roof quotes are being obtained here if needed, and it takes a few works until those roof repairs can begin, what you can do is have a cheap temporary repair done until the permanent roof fix starts. That's pretty common with roofing repairs, and that way not only is any interim damage avoided, but the tenant is not being negatively impacted here either. No slumlords around here. As we're discussing real estate problems today, we're about to delve into what happens when homeowners in real estate investors, when they can't make the mortgage payments on their property, and is that proportion of people going up or is that going down in this low affordability market? We'll also get some takeaways by looking at the bidder activity on foreclosure properties.


Speaker Weinhold** ((00:14:33)) - - That can tell us quite a bit about the market and about buyer expectations for the future of the market. And I'll also tell you how you too, if you're interested, you can find opportunities and get a deep discount on a foreclosed upon property. That's all. Next with a great guest, I'm Keith Reinhold. You're listening to get Rich education. Your bank is getting rich off of you. The national average bank account pays less than 1% on your savings. If your money isn't making 4%, you're losing your hard earned cash to inflation. Let the liquidity fund help you put your money to work with minimum risk. Your cash generates up to an 8% return with compound interest year in and year out. Instead of earning less than 1% sitting in your bank account, the minimum investment is just $25. You keep getting paid until you decide you want your money back there. Decade plus track record proves they've always paid their investors 100% in full and on time. And I would know, because I'm an investor, to earn 8%.


Speaker Weinhold** ((00:15:41)) - - Hundreds of others are. Text. Family 266866. Learn more about Freedom Family Investments Liquidity Fund on your journey to financial freedom through passive income. Text family to 66866. Role under the specific expert with income property you need Ridge Lending Group and MLS 42056 in grey history, from beginners to veterans. They provided our listeners with more mortgages than anyone. It's where I get my own loans for single family rentals up to four Plex's. Start your pre-qualification and chat with President Charlie Ridge personally. They'll even customize a plan tailored to you for growing your portfolio. Start at Ridge Lending Ridge lending This is Rich dad advisor Tom Wheelwright. Listen to get Rich education with Keith Reinhold and don't quit your daydream. This week's guest is the VP of Market Economics at auction. Com they are the largest online source of foreclosure and bank owned properties that you won't find on the MLS. You can bid on properties from anywhere with your mobile device. We'll learn more about that later. First, we're covering a general real estate market update today, and then we're mostly going to discuss what's happening in the foreclosure market, including just what a foreclosure market even is.


Speaker Weinhold** ((00:17:25)) - - Hey, it's been over a year since we've had you here. So a big gray welcome back to Darren Lundquist. Thank you so much. It's great to be back and.


Speaker Blomquist** ((00:17:34)) - - Glad to see you, Keith.


Speaker Weinhold** ((00:17:35)) - - For listeners in the audio only Blomquist is spelled with just one oh, despite being pronounced. Blomquist and Daren, as we talk about the state of these markets today, it also helps to mix in lessons for the follower and listener that's watching or consuming this. In ten years. And before we discuss foreclosures. Now, Darren, when I look at the residential real estate market today, there are a few ways that it appears rather normalized actually. For example, all price appreciation rates are normal rent growth levels. They're pretty close to historic norms. Interest rates are even near historic norms, which is a surprise to laypersons. But that's three huge measures that are actually normal, and no one else anywhere talks about that. But there are some aberrations in today's market, the most chronic and saddening of which is the lack of housing supply.


Speaker Weinhold** ((00:18:28)) - - So with that backdrop, what are your thoughts on today's overall American housing market?


Speaker Blomquist** ((00:18:34)) - - It's really interesting. We have these normal metrics that we look at when we look at how home price appreciation. Now home sales I would say are abnormally low. Right. But home price appreciation is doing well. Some of the other metrics that we look at. But it's coming off of this abnormal what I would say an abnormal period over the last three years or so, mostly during the pandemic when the housing market went a little bit crazy and you saw home prices rise abnormally fast. I would argue too fast for such a short period of time. And so you'd almost expect after a period like that to see a correction in home prices. And we saw a slight correction in late 2022, early 23. Right. But now home prices are, as you mentioned, kind of back to normal actually maybe a little bit on the high side of normal, 5 to 7% home price appreciation that we're seeing annually. And so there is this sense that things look normal.


Speaker Wheelwright** ((00:19:32)) - - But below the surface there are, I believe I would argue and you may not agree with this, some underlying problems that I think could come back to bite us if, you know, depending on how things go over the next few years. But certainly the underlying fundamental biggest storyline, that's not necessarily maybe as accessible to a lot of people is this housing supply that you mentioned, Keith. And over the last the decade that ended in 2020, we saw, I would guess, based on my analysis, about 4 to 5 million housing units that were not built, that in a sense should have been built. But we were short 4 to 5 million housing units relative to the number of households that were being formed during that same time period. And so that is set us up for this market that we're in now in the 2020s, where we're seeing, despite the fact that home prices are going up and are out of whack with fundamental price to income ratios. In other words, affordability is a problem. Despite that fact, home prices continue to go up because you have this underlying lack of supply and so you have enough demand to fuel rising home prices, given the lack of supply, if that makes sense.


Speaker Weinhold** ((00:20:48)) - - Yes. You mentioned the paltry volume of sales, which is really one consequence of this constrained supply. And there are so many ways to measure it. You threw some numbers out there just using Fred's active listing count. They have one and a half to 2 million homes normally available. Inventory bottomed out near a jaw dropping, just fantastically paltry 350,000 units in 2022. And then the latest figure is about 730 K. So really doubling off the bottom, but yet still far below what is needed there in in 2021 and 2022, I started informing our audience that the housing crash of this generation, it's already occurred. It was a supply crash, which hedges against a price crash even amidst a tripling of interest rates. I guess there. And from your vantage point, when will this low housing supply abate?


Speaker Wheelwright** ((00:21:46)) - - But I think on the multifamily side, you're seeing signs that we've, in a sense, caught up with housing supply. You're seeing the multifamily sectors start in terms of the builders start to pull back. I think because of that.


Speaker Wheelwright** ((00:21:58)) - - And one piece of evidence of that is the slowdown in rent appreciation. But then on the Single-Family side, we're still seeing pretty robust increases in housing starts and builders starting housing units. And I was just looking at the latest numbers for April up 18% year over year. And we're at over a million housing starts in April on an annualized basis. You know, it's hard to predict what household formation will be doing over the next decade, but I believe that million number is enough to supply the new households that are being formed and are projected to be formed over the next few years. And so we're kind of at a place where at least we're treading water in terms of housing supply. And I do think there are some demographic trends that could by the year 2030, which may seem like a long ways off still, but by that time we would see this kind of reverse a little bit. And the demographic trends I'm talking about are slower population growth, the birth rates. There's a big article in the Wall Street Journal.


Speaker Wheelwright** ((00:22:58)) - - If you write, birth rates are surprisingly not really coming back. They dropped during the pandemic have not really come back. And in many areas, including the US or below replacement level in terms of replacing the population at 2.1. Yes. So not to get too deep into the demographics, I'm not a demographer, but I think that combined with these increases in housing starts that we're seeing, we will see that supply in the next five years. Maybe when I'm on next, I'm with you to see that it is a slow moving train. I think we're headed in a good direction in terms of that, that housing supply. And those are already, I would argue, some early signs at 2024 at least. It's still a low supply environment, but it's at least somewhat better, incrementally better than 2023 was in terms of inventory. And we're seeing some more inventory. Come on. One tip I would just say that's I think a long term thing to look for, no matter what environment you're in, is if you look at the inventory, inventory is a great and a barometer of market health.


Speaker Wheelwright** ((00:24:00)) - - And if you look at inventory numbers by market, which we do, you do see some markets all of a sudden inventory is starting to spike. And that to me is a signal that those markets could be softening in terms of prices and even in terms of sales. So you see some markets in Florida popping up like that. But whether or not we're talking about now or anytime, it's a great metric to look at. For anybody investing in real estate, especially at a market level, is that inventory of homes. You can look at month supply of inventory for sale. Six months supply is a great milestone. If there's six months supply, that's a balanced market. If it's below six months supply, it's a seller's market. And if it's above six months supply, it's a buyer's market. So just a general kind of rule of thumb to look for there.


Speaker Weinhold** ((00:24:46)) - - Sure. We've seen months of supply three months or less in an awful lot of places. However, you alluded to coming potential problems for the housing market earlier.


Speaker Weinhold** ((00:24:55)) - - Can you tell us more about that? Have you already done that with talking about a potential softening with some inventory coming on faster in some markets?


Speaker Wheelwright** ((00:25:04)) - - I think you're a thesis about this. The housing crash has already happened and it was a supply crash is very interesting. When I look at price to income ratios over time, you know, home prices versus incomes, we've diverged from that long term mean of that price to income ratio right. In the last couple of years. We saw that during the the bubble of 2004 five six. But it's even more dramatic in the last couple of years where we saw at the peak of this, the actual home prices. We. Nationwide, we're about 30% above what we would expect the price to be based on incomes and that historic price to income ratio. And so I do expect a reversion to the mean at some point. Now, whether that could occur as a pretty sharp correction, although I can't point to a specific trigger that would cause that correction necessarily may could occur more of a stagnation over time, where home prices kind of flatten out and increase less than the median long term average.


Speaker Wheelwright** ((00:26:07)) - - I do believe that we will see a reversion to that mean eventually, especially as we see more supply coming onto the market. I think it's actually healthy for the housing market, but it could be experienced by many people as weakness in the housing market, because you could see home prices decline a little bit, especially in certain markets.


Speaker Weinhold** ((00:26:25)) - - From your vantage point. Darren, you are an expert there in helping people find deals because you really keep a pulse on what's happening in the foreclosure market. Maybe some of our audience doesn't completely understand what the foreclosure market means. Now, Darren, I think of delinquency is that condition means that mortgage borrowers have been making some late payments. Tell us about how delinquency differs from foreclosure. And that will help if you go ahead and define just what the foreclosure market is.


Speaker Wheelwright** ((00:26:57)) - - Starting with the foreclosure market. I mean, when you can call it the distressed market or the foreclosure market. And that's really where auctions. Com operates. And is this foreclosure market, it's loans that the borrower cannot continue to make payments for a variety of reasons.


Speaker Wheelwright** ((00:27:12)) - - When you have a home that's financed and the borrower cannot continue to make payments, the recourse for the lender is foreclosure to take back that property by taking back that property and then selling it, recouping or trying to recoup as much of the losses on that property that they can in terms of the loan that was given on that property. Okay.


Speaker Weinhold** ((00:27:34)) - - So let's talk about delinquencies here. We're looking at certain levels of severity being 30 days late on your payments, being 60 days late and being 90 days late. And interestingly, we see a big spike in FHA loan types that have had more delinquencies than conventional loan types.


Speaker Blomquist** ((00:27:50)) - - That's right. Yeah. So delinquency is kind of the top of the funnel if you think of the distressed market or for leisure market as a funnel, the top of that funnel is someone can't make their payment one month. They miss their payment, mortgage payment one month. That's what this 30 or 30 day delinquency. And when you look at the chart that we're looking at, you do see those 30 day delinquencies rising over the especially on FHA loans, which are, I would argue, the most kind of risky loans in our current marketplace.


Speaker Blomquist** ((00:28:19)) - - Yeah, the last ten years, over the last decade. And we see those even from 2021, rising steadily up back to really 2019 highs on the 30 day delinquencies, you also see a slight gradual increase in conventional loans, which are loans backed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac as well as VA loans. But those are the 30 day delinquencies. They're are not back to pre-pandemic levels even on that front. So that's the 30 day. Usually if someone misses a monthly payment, it's not super serious at that point. What really gets more into our marketplace is when we see a 90 day delinquency, or what's known as a seriously delinquent loan alone, that is past due by 90 plus days. And we have that chart here. What stands out to me on this chart is you actually see those 90 day delinquencies continuing for the most part to trend lower, even though the 30 day delinquencies are going up, 90 days are coming down, and there's a lot of reasons for that. But at the end of the day, that means people maybe are getting into trouble, but they're able to get out of trouble before they lose the home to foreclosure in many instances.


Speaker Weinhold** ((00:29:29)) - - All right. So in summary, 30 and 60 day delinquencies have risen over the past two years. But over the past two years, serious delinquencies, 90 day delinquencies therefore, are lower over the past two years.


Speaker Blomquist** ((00:29:43)) - - That's right. And then if we look at foreclosure starts, which is kind of the next step. So you missed three months worth of payments. That's when the bank starts to think about starting the official foreclosure process. And if you look at foreclosure starts, we are seeing those rise as well. And part of the reason that you see these rising, even though seriously delinquent loans are falling, is because there was a bit of a backlog from the pandemic still. Yeah, loans that were delinquent when the pandemic started that were delayed from going to foreclosure, that are now coming back. So we see this sharp drop off in 2020 when there was a foreclosure moratorium. Those numbers have reverted back, have bounced back. But there's we're still seeing about 60 to 70,000 foreclosure starts, a quarter nationwide just to put some numbers on this.


Speaker Blomquist** ((00:30:31)) - - But back in the first quarter of 2020, before the foreclosure moratoriums, we were at 81,000. So we're still at about 80% of the pre-pandemic levels. But foreclosure starts have come back. We're just getting back to what I would consider kind of normal levels of foreclosure, and especially if you look at in the context of what we saw during in 2009, 2010, we were seeing over 500,000 foreclosure starts a quarter back then. Now we're seeing 68,000. So we're paling in comparison to those numbers.


Speaker Weinhold** ((00:31:04)) - - As you, the investor, is thinking this through, we're talking about how many opportunities there will be for you here, basically to scoop up a distressed deal, a fixed and flip property. If you're looking to fix and flip one just in the general context, that's what we're talking about here.


Speaker Blomquist** ((00:31:21)) - - Opportunities really foreclosure starts are for. Opportunities. If we look at where the opportunities are emerging in terms of those foreclosure starts, we do see a lot of increases in looking at March of 2024. Year over year, a lot of increases in Florida, and foreclosure starts and also Texas in California.


Speaker Blomquist** ((00:31:42)) - - So it's interesting. I mean, these are markets that are doing pretty well, pretty healthy. But we are seeing some of those foreclosure starts come back in pretty big percentage wise in those areas. If we look at auction com data, specifically the state level, in the interest of time. But just to look through the lens of looking for opportunities. Auction com resides a step after the foreclosure start. Then eventually it goes to a foreclosure auction where the property either sells to an investor or it goes back to the bank is what's known as an REO. And where we're seeing on our platform the biggest kind of return to normal levels of foreclosure auction volume, where there's that property actually is sold, is mostly in the Rust Belt, Upper Midwest. That's where we're seeing volumes return to normal. And a place like Florida, we're only seeing foreclosure volumes are over 70% below normal, and Texas were 55% below normal. And when I say normal, I'm saying I'm comparing that to pre-pandemic levels. And then in California, we're at about 45% below those pre-pandemic levels.


Speaker Blomquist** ((00:32:54)) - - So some of the big volume states, we're still waiting for the foreclosure volume to return. But if you look like at states like Indiana, Iowa, Minnesota, places like that, Oklahoma, we are seeing that foreclosure auction volumes have returned to those pre-pandemic levels. So there are more opportunities in those areas, at least relative to their population and their their size of in terms of housing units.


Speaker Weinhold** ((00:33:20)) - - So in general, in a lot of these upper Midwestern states, in northern Great Plains states, we see a greater foreclosure volume than we did pre-pandemic, because those levels are at over 100%, 100 being the pre-pandemic level. There is one aberration on your map, for one thing, Darren, and that is in Connecticut, where we have 306% of the foreclosure volume that we did pre-pandemic. That's over three x what's going on in Connecticut?


Speaker Wheelwright** ((00:33:50)) - - I'm glad you pointed that out. I mean, that is part of the the issue with Connecticut is you do have relatively low foreclosure volumes there. So the 306% is coming off even pre-pandemic, some pretty low volumes of foreclosure.


Speaker Wheelwright** ((00:34:03)) - - We are seeing and I can't point to exactly what's happening there in terms of the economy, any other extra weakness in the economy or in the housing market there? But we are seeing definitely that's the top state in terms of where foreclosure volume is back way above, in fact, pre-pandemic levels. That was one of the areas, at least parts of Connecticut where the work from home trend maybe got a little bit out of control, and people were buying homes and willing to pay very high prices for homes that were who worked in New York City. And now we're thinking, well, I can work from Connecticut. In the country. There was probably more of a pandemic housing boom in Connecticut than some other areas of the country, and that may be part of the story that's going on there.


Speaker Weinhold** ((00:34:54)) - - We're talking about the most densely populated part of the United States here, the tri state area, which is New York, Connecticut and New Jersey. And what's unusual is that one of those three states, new Jersey, is the antithesis of what's happening in Connecticut.


Speaker Weinhold** ((00:35:09)) - - Connecticut has about three x the foreclosure volume than they did before the pandemic, and new Jersey is just 25%. They only have one quarter the foreclosure volume that they did before the pandemic. Are there any other tri state dynamics going on there with foreclosures there?


Speaker Wheelwright** ((00:35:25)) - - That's a great observation. And one thing that becomes very important with foreclosures is the foreclosure process is governed by state law. It's not a federal national law that governs how the foreclosures work. And so you do see a lot of variation in the states based on how that foreclosure process works. And then also even how the the legislatures in those states have stepped in in some cases. And that's the case in new Jersey and created new laws even in the last couple of years to, for lack of a better word, stymie the foreclosure process and may put extra barriers in getting to foreclosure. And so, number one, new Jersey is what's called a judicial foreclosure state, where the foreclosure process is inherently longer than many states, including Connecticut. And then on top of that, the new Jersey legislature has enacted at least one law that took effect in January that even creates more barriers to foreclosure.


Speaker Wheelwright** ((00:36:22)) - - And we probably don't have time to get into the details of that law. But that's really, I think, what's it's less about that new Jersey is a much more healthy housing market than Connecticut. As to what you see there is the effects of the state governed foreclosure process with those numbers.


Speaker Weinhold** ((00:36:40)) - - So just some great context for the listener and viewer here. The state jurisdiction in the judicial process has an awful lot to do with foreclosure volume. That's not necessarily indicative of the condition of its housing market.


Speaker Wheelwright** ((00:36:55)) - - That's right. And it does vary quite a bit. When we look at going forward at risk. We actually asked, so our clients are the banks, the mortgage servicers, the lenders who are foreclosing on these properties. And we ask them what they think is the highest risk of increasing foreclosures in the future. And the the top of their list was rising insurance and property taxes.


Speaker Weinhold** ((00:37:22)) - - That's super interesting.


Speaker Wheelwright** ((00:37:23)) - - Yeah, and that's been a hot topic recently. I would put that at the top of my list of risks.


Speaker Wheelwright** ((00:37:29)) - - Going back to your question about why could the housing market experience weakness in the somewhat near future? I think this is the top of my list of as a catalyst that could potentially trigger weakness in the housing market, specifically home prices. Because of these variable costs of homeownership. You know, your mortgage is a fixed cost. You know what it's going to be every month, but your insurance and property taxes are variable costs. And there are in some states, those have skyrocketed. For some homeowners. This insurers are pulling out of states.


Speaker Weinhold** ((00:38:02)) - - This is all such a great finding. Again, Darren's firm asked the survey question how much would you assign each of the following in terms of risk for higher delinquencies between now and the end of this year? And the number one answer is rising insurance and property taxes to Darren's point. That's because these are variable costs that everyone is subjected to. And we need to be mindful that more than 4 in 10 American homeowners are free and clear of their mortgage, so they don't have any payment.


Speaker Weinhold** ((00:38:27)) - - So on a percentage basis, when you look at homeowners expenses, when they have rising insurance and property tax problems, you can see how this can increase foreclosures.


Speaker Wheelwright** ((00:38:38)) - - That's right. That's a great point. A couple other risks that ranked fairly high with our clients. We're rising consumer debt delinquencies so that we do see things like credit card debt and auto loan debt, specifically those two delinquencies on those types of more or loans, not mortgages, are rising quite quickly over the last few quarters. And so that's an area of risk that we're seeing. And then they put rising unemployment is third. But you know right. We're not seeing unemployment rise right now. And unemployment is very low. They put that a little bit lower on the list. Those two things to look out for are those rising insurance and property taxes. If we continue to see that be a problem, that could be a trigger that causes some fallout in the housing market, as well as if we continue to see those rising delinquencies on credit card and auto loan debt that could ripple out as well to the housing market.


Speaker Weinhold** ((00:39:35)) - - It's really interesting. Higher property taxes are often a result of a homeowner's property having gone up in value. But if you own a paid off home and you're just going to continue to live there for the rest of your life, that rising property value that really doesn't help you so much, it actually might hurt you in a way, because you will have a commensurate increase in your property. Taxes, making it harder for you to live.


Speaker Wheelwright** ((00:39:57)) - - Yeah, that's right. It's a double edged sword there with the rising values. And usually it's, you know, property taxes is not an unbearable cost for most people. But when you're on the margins and you're just barely able to make your mortgage payment each month, and if you're in that situation, a fairly small rise in property taxes can make a big difference in whether you're able to continue to make those payments.


Speaker Weinhold** ((00:40:21)) - - Yes. And then the rising insurance premiums, they've gone to X to three X on some homeowners in just a few years. It won't go up that much on a property taxes.


Speaker Wheelwright** ((00:40:30)) - - The insurance is there's been more of the problem recently, but property taxes are kind of layered on top of that. Moving on. I just wanted to land, I think really on getting back to that question of opportunity for investors out there and auction com buyers are typically fix and flip or you know, fix and rent investors. And so what they're doing is they're looking to buy these properties. And it usually takes maybe six months, 90 days to six months to renovate these properties and turn them around and sell them. And so one of the things we look at very carefully is, are the bidding behavior on our platform as an indicator of what's coming in the retail market, because our buyers are they're pretty good usually at anticipating what's going to be happening in their market over the next 3 to 6 months. Our buyers did pull back in their bidding behavior, they got more conservative and were willing to pay less. Back in 2022, when mortgage rates spiked. But it appears now that our buyers have gotten comfortable with this kind of higher for longer concept of interest rates.


Speaker Wheelwright** ((00:41:36)) - - Yeah, and our bidding behavior on our platform is mostly trending higher, meaning that our buyers are pretty confident that the housing market, despite, you know, I might have sounded a little doom and gloom, but our buyers are pretty confident that in their local market, they will continue to be able to buy these distressed homes at a discount. The metric we look at is what they're paying at auction, relative to the after repair value of the home, the estimated after repair value, and as of March of this year, that was at 59.8%. So they're buying at 60% of after repair value at 40. You could turn that around and call that a 40% discount. That number is, believe it or not, been trending up over the last few months. So they're willing to pay more, which indicates confidence in the housing market going forward. Historically, that's our bidders have been a good harbinger or indicator of what's to come in the retail market when they're more confident the retail market typically does well and vice versa.


Speaker Wheelwright** ((00:42:39)) - - You know, if we look at that by market, it's really interesting to see where our bidders are most confident about home prices going up in different markets. And we see a lot of confidence actually, the places where we see it's probably coincidental, but some of the places where we see higher foreclosure volume, as we talked about earlier, some of the upper Midwest Rust Belt areas are where we're seeing our buyers willing to pay more than they did a year ago relative to after repair value. So that's where they have a lot of confidence, actually, even out in California and most parts of Florida, they're still pretty confident. And Texas, there are some areas where our buyers are pulling back and and are paying less relative to after repair value. And there's kind of a cluster of markets in on the Gulf Coast, right? You know, in Mississippi, Alabama. And I don't know if that relates to insurance costs. I haven't made that connection solidly. That's an area where there has been rising insurance costs.


Speaker Wheelwright** ((00:43:39)) - - It varies quite a bit. There are some other markets mixed in across the country. Even though most of Florida, our buyers are pretty confident there is one area where they're they've become cautious, which is Cape Coral, Florida. They've pulled back in terms of what they're willing to bid.


Speaker Weinhold** ((00:43:55)) - - Buyers for foreclosure properties still look overall quite confident in Florida. But yeah, like you touched on Darren, it's the lack of confidence to pay more for foreclosure properties in and around southern Louisiana. I know there's been some population loss there. And yes, like you touched on, they are more sensitive to insurance premium rises in Louisiana too.


Speaker Wheelwright** ((00:44:17)) - - That's right. So the takeaway is there's still the beauty of buying at that auction and distressed properties you are buying at a discount below after repair value. There's still a lot of risk involved because you may not know all that that's needed to renovate these properties, but you do have that. Rather than just counting on the housing market. Home price appreciation to increase to drive your profits, you have this component of added value.


Speaker Wheelwright** ((00:44:45)) - - So you're buying the property at a discount. And even at the housing, home prices don't go up in the next six months. By adding value to that property, you can still turn a profit because you're selling it for more than you bought it for. We have two types of auction on auction. Com there's the foreclosure auction, which we've talked a lot about, which comes at the end of the foreclosure process. And that's typically on the local courthouse steps. Although auction com in many counties allows you to bid remotely on your phone, we're we're pretty excited about that technology that we've introduced in the last couple of years. And then the second type of auction is if it doesn't sell at the courthouse steps foreclosure auction, it goes back to the bank as an REO. And we do the Ro auctions, which are mostly all online, and you can bid from anywhere. And it's pretty consistent between those two types of auctions. On average, at least over time, buyers are typically paying about 60% of after repair value, so about a 40% discount between after repair value.


Speaker Wheelwright** ((00:45:46)) - - Now, a lot of these homes need are in need of a lot of repair. But you have that type of discount available. And even though foreclosure volume has not come back to pre-pandemic levels, we're still seeing a consistent flow of that happening. There are certainly many markets, especially if you're willing to go off the beaten path a little bit in terms of markets where you can find inventory and also good discounts on these properties, especially if you're going to markets where maybe other investors aren't as aware of or aren't as interested in.


Speaker Weinhold** ((00:46:18)) - - Therein. I wonder about local flavor. For those that bid through your platform on these distressed, foreclosed properties. Here we have a lot of investors that buy properties pretty passively where the property is already fixed up for you, maybe already held under management. And a lot of those investors, they go ahead and buy across state lines, because the best teals tend to be in the Midwest and Southeast and a few other pockets in places. So there are an awful lot of out of state investors.


Speaker Weinhold** ((00:46:49)) - - On the passive side, what do you see for a breakdown of local investors in state investors and out-of-state investors through your platform for these distressed properties? I imagine it might be somewhat more localized than what I just described.


Speaker Wheelwright** ((00:47:01)) - - We do have some investors who are buying out of state, but actually the majority are buying in their backyard. Again, because these properties require their high touch, they require a lot of renovation. And so it's good to be local. It's definitely possible, especially with the REO properties where you can buy online. There is some more flexibility there if you have a crew, if you have boots on the ground in the market where you're buying, where you can do that, actually, the average distance between our buyers and the properties they buy is about 20 miles. I should say that's a median distance. So they're very local. There's definitely some exceptions to that you can buy across the country. But it is harder with these properties. These folks are very local. They know the markets they're operating in, and they know they have the resources in those markets to do the renovations.


Speaker Wheelwright** ((00:47:53)) - - Our buyers are probably a great resource for your students, Keith, to be able to tap into these types of local investors who have a supply of homes that they're creating, and sometimes they're selling back to owner occupants, you know, they're putting those properties on the market as renovated properties, and those might be good turnkey rental opportunities as well.


Speaker Weinhold** ((00:48:17)) - - You know, that makes a lot of sense. And how your platform can help people not just find properties, but maybe network and find some like minded people that have tread where you're trying to go. Well, Darren, is there any last thing that you would like to tell us along with your online platform? Is there also perhaps an auction mobile app?


Speaker Wheelwright** ((00:48:37)) - - Absolutely. We have an auction. Com app, and that's a great way to just either on on the website or on the app. You can go on and start searching. There's no subscription fee or anything like that to start looking and seeing where the opportunities are in the markets that you're interested in. You go to the news.


Speaker Wheelwright** ((00:48:57)) - - I actually end up talking to quite a few buyers of our buyers, and we've done some videos where we've gone and visited some of these buyers on location to see what they're doing, how they are operating on a human level. It's very interesting because these buyers are actually doing a lot of good in their communities. Many times by willing to take these down and out properties and down and out neighborhoods and renovate them, but also just on the level of understanding how this all works. That's a great resource. So that's the news and look for those videos featuring some of our buyers. I think that would be a great resource.


Speaker Weinhold** ((00:49:33)) - - Well this has been great information to get an update on what's happening in the foreclosure market and where some of the local areas of opportunity might be as well, especially compared to pre-pandemic conditions. It's been valuable and it's been a pleasure having you here on the show. Thank you so much, Keith. Yeah. Good knowledge for foreclosure expert Darren Bloomquist today. It's when borrowers miss three months of mortgage payments.


Speaker Weinhold** ((00:50:05)) - - That's that mark, where banks often begin foreclosure proceedings. Another thing that you learn is compared to pre-pandemic levels, national foreclosure levels are 10 to 20% lower today than they were then. And see with those that have a late mortgage payment or two, oftentimes that's not going all the way to foreclosure. They're getting caught up on their payments before it goes to foreclosure. And what's really going on here with that dynamic is that, see, today's homeowners, they are more motivated to stay caught up on their payments if they fall behind. And that's because they usually have a substantial positive equity position to protect. And the other factor is that if you lose your home today and you're locked in at a low pre 2022 mortgage rate, it's often going to cost you more per month to go out and rent somewhere else. So it's cheaper on a monthly basis to live in the home that you own. One piece that you might have learned is that high foreclosure activity in a state or city that is not necessarily indicative of that area's economic fortunes.


Speaker Weinhold** ((00:51:10)) - - Instead, it might be tied to its judicial foreclosure process. Nationally, buyers are paying about 60% of after repair value for a foreclosure property. I just talked to Darren some more outside of today's interview, he discussed that foreclosure properties are often in opportunity zones, and if you don't know what they are, are designated distressed areas. That's where there are benefits given to you. If you invest specifically in that zone, you might remember that Opportunity Zones were part of Trump's 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act. They have those zones in all 50 states. And Darren said that overall Opportunity zones are working next week here on the show. Properties are vanishing. Yeah, it is a real tweak to your investor mindset. Disappearing properties. Tune in next week as I cover. Properties are vanishing here on the show. If you haven't yet on your favorite pod catching app, be sure to subscribe or follow the show on your favorite app. Until next week, I'm your host, Keith Windle. Don't quit your daydream.


Speaker Blomquist** ((00:52:23)) - - Nothing on this show should be considered specific, personal or professional advice.


Speaker Voice** ((00:52:27)) - - Please consult an appropriate tax, legal, real estate, financial or business professional for individualized advice. Opinions of guests are their own. Information is not guaranteed. All investment strategies have the potential for profit or loss. The host is operating on behalf of yet Rich education LLC exclusively.


Speaker Weinhold** ((00:52:51)) - - The preceding program was brought to you by your home for wealth building. Get rich

Direct download: GREepisode505_b.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 4:00am EDT

We’re joined by President Ronald Reagan’s Budget Director, David Stockman. He tells us what real estate investors and everyday people need to know.

Stockman served as Reagan’s Director of Office, Management and Budget from 1981 to 1985.

He tells us to expect higher inflation and interest rates for longer, maybe even the rest of the decade. Don’t expect rate cuts for a long time.

The US is moving toward an unsustainable debt situation, with $100T in public debt expected within twenty-five years. We have embedded deficits.

Learn why the recession has been postponed. David also reveals what will inevitably pull the trigger to potentially start the recession. Hint: Household budgets.

Pandemic stimulus programs gave citizens $3T. Half of it has now been spent.

He was also one of the founding partners of Blackstone.

David Stockman tells a story about President Reagan’s personal touch with him.

You can subscribe to David Stockman’s Contra Corner for free here.

Resources mentioned:

David Stockman’s Contra Corner

For access to properties or free help with a

GRE Investment Coach, start here:

Get mortgage loans for investment property: or call 855-74-RIDGE 

or e-mail:

Invest with Freedom Family Investments. 

You get paid first: Text FAMILY to 66866

For advertising inquiries, visit:

Will you please leave a review for the show? I’d be grateful. Search “how to leave an Apple Podcasts review” 

GRE Free Investment Coaching:

Best Financial Education:

Get our wealth-building newsletter free—

text ‘GRE’ to 66866

Our YouTube Channel:

Follow us on Instagram:


Keith’s personal Instagram:



Complete episode transcript:


Keith Weinhold (00:00:01) - Welcome to our Ivory Coast, Keith Whitehill. There are some dire warning signs for the future of our economy. We're joined by none other than the father of Reaganomics. To break it down with us. Today is late. President Ronald Reagan's budget director joins us. When is this perpetually postponed recession coming? Why? Inflation and high interest rates could carry on for the rest of the decade. And what it all means to your finances and real estate today on get Rich education.


Robert Syslo (00:00:34) - Since 2014, the powerful get Rich education podcast has created more passive income for people than nearly any other show in the world. This show teaches you how to earn strong returns from past real estate, investing in the best markets without losing your time being a flipper or landlord. Show host Keith Wine, who writes for both Forbes and Rich Dad Advisors and delivers a new show every week. Since 2014, there's been millions of listeners downloads and 188 world nations. He has A-list show guests include top selling personal finance author Robert Kiyosaki. Get Rich education can be heard on every podcast platform, plus it has its own dedicated Apple and Android listener.


Robert Syslo (00:01:08) - Phone apps build wealth on the go with the get Rich education podcast. Sign up now for the get Rich education podcast or visit get Rich


Corey Coates (00:01:19) - You're listening to the show that has created more financial freedom than nearly any show in the world. This is get rich education.


Keith Weinhold (00:01:35) - We're going to drive from Glen Burnie, Maryland, to Glen County, California and across 188 nations worldwide. I'm Keith Reinhold, and you're listening to get Rich education. We're going bigger picture this week before we talk to President Reagan's money guy in the white House. Understand that today's guest was also one of the founding partners of Blackstone, and they are in the real estate business. You're going to get a lot of deep, uniquely qualified insights today. And I'll tell you what's going on around here. Lately, things have been feeling awfully presidential between last week's program and now this week's program. Hey. Stars and stripes forever. Semper fi. Rah! Now, as the greatest detonation in the history of the world, how in the heck are we, as the United States, going to keep financing our debt now, you can think of a treasury, also known as a bond, as an IOU, as we take on debt to fund our government spending programs.


Keith Weinhold (00:02:42) - Really, what we do is issue then these IOUs to the rest of the world and then down the road. We need to pay back these IOU holders, treasuries, holders, whatever we've borrowed with interest on top of that. That's a really simple way to describe how it works. Think of a Treasury as an IOU. Well, we have $9 trillion in treasuries that need to be rolled over at higher interest rates just this year alone. Okay. Well, how does the market look for that sort of thing? Well, a lot like before you decide to sell a piece of real estate, you would want to know how that buyer's market looks. How is the buyer's market for us selling more treasuries, which is basically us issuing more IOUs? How is that world interest level in our treasuries? Well, this is a time when the world is selling treasuries. We're trying to get rid of them. Well, why would they buy more when we keep printing like crazy, debasing the dollars that they will eventually get their treasuries repaid in down the road? Case in point, China is down to just over 700 billion of treasuries that they're holding.


Keith Weinhold (00:04:01) - Well, they were 3 trillion not too long ago, more than four times that Russia and Iran sold all of their treasuries. Other countries are shedding them too, like Japan. It gets even worse than that because the number one holder of our own debt is our own fed. And then it gets even worse than that. Yet, because even our own fed is rolling treasuries off of their balance sheet. So who is going to finance this often irresponsible US spending the 10 trillion or $11 trillion every single year for the next ten years that we have obligations toward already, and it looks like all those are going to be at higher interest rates, too. Now, I am not telling you how to think about us as the United States, for example, sending foreign aid to multiple nations. That's up to you to decide whether it's Ukraine or the Middle East or Taiwan that gets political. And that is beyond the scope of GR. We are an investing show. What I'm saying is that backdrop that I just gave you, that's something that you need to take into consideration, is you weigh those foreign aid decision types.


Keith Weinhold (00:05:20) - Speaking of getting worse, do we at least have competent decision makers today? Now, as we'll talk to the father of Reaganomics here shortly, someone that served in an earlier era. Here's a clip from this era that really went viral lately, but it's apropos to play it here. This is Jared Bernstein today. He chairs President Joe Biden's Council of Economic Advisers. How much confidence does this instill? And remember, this guy chairs the economic advisers to today's president.


Jared Bernstein (00:05:56) - The US government can't go bankrupt because we can print our own money.


Voice (00:06:00) - Like you said, they print the dollar. So why? Why does the government even borrow?


Jared Bernstein (00:06:04) - Well, the, so the I mean, again, some of this stuff gets some of the language that the, some of the language and concepts are just confusing. I mean, the government definitely prints money and it definitely lends that money, which is why the government definitely prints money. And then it lends that money by, by selling bonds. Is that what they do? They they, the.


Jared Bernstein (00:06:34) - Yeah. They, they they sell bonds. Yeah. They sell bonds. Right. Because they sell bonds and people buy the bonds and lend them the money. Yeah. So a lot of times, a lot of times at least to my year with MMT, the, the language and the concepts can be kind of unnecessarily confusing. But there is no question that the government prints money and then it uses that money to so, yeah, I guess I'm just I don't, I can't really, I don't, I don't get it. I don't know what they're talking about.


Keith Weinhold (00:07:08) - Well geez. How's that for clarity and confidence from today's major decision makers on our economy? Gosh. Now, in my opinion, back in 2020, our government, they set up the wrong incentive structure to deal with the pandemic. Remember things like the PGP, the Paycheck Protection Program, remember mortgage loan forbearance and the eviction moratorium. See when that type of aid is given, well, then the result is that citizens don't learn that they need to keep some cash handy, and then that behavior that gets rewarded gets repeated in that behavior is handouts.


Keith Weinhold (00:07:53) - And then the expectation for more handouts. 56% of Americans don't even have $1,000 for an emergency expense. Well, see, they're not really incentivized to in the future. If in a crisis, everyone just gets another taxpayer funded handout, but then see those same people that got that handout get hurt in the long run. Anyway, with the longer run inflation that the handout created, don't let there be one day of austerity for the least prepared American, I guess. Instead, bail them out and add on to everyone's debt load, which you know that right there. That seems to be the playbook. Like that is the protocol of the day that is not responsible, in my view. Now, the minutes of the latest fed meeting, they said that some fed officials would be open to raising interest rates if inflation doesn't let up. I mean, that news alone that sent stocks plunging like they were riding the Tower of Terror, giving the Dow its worst day in a while. I'll discuss that more with the father of Reaganomics, David Stockman, today.


Keith Weinhold (00:09:01) - It's the kind of episode that can stretch your thinking here. Now, what is Reaganomics? Well, one thing that you should know is that it's committed to the doctrine of supply side economics. You probably heard that term before. And really what that's all about is lowering taxes, decreasing regulation, and allowing free trade and what was called the Reagan budget. That's something that his budget director Stockman expected would help curtail the welfare state. And he gained a reputation as a tough negotiator for that. He lives on the Upper East Side of Manhattan today, and it's kind of funny with macroeconomic discussions. You'll notice something here, the word million, that doesn't even come up that much anymore. It's simply a number that is too small. It is more like billion and trillion. And hey, let's see if the term three orders of magnitude above trillion comes up today. Quadrillion, or even the one after that quintillion. Is that where we're going next? We'll see. before we meet David Simon, I've gotten more questions about something, because the national average bank account pays less than 1% on your savings.


Keith Weinhold (00:10:18) - And where do you really get a decent yield on your savings, even beyond the 5% in an online only savings account or a CD, which that does not outpace true inflation? For years now, I've reliably been getting 8%. What I do is keep my dollars in a private liquidity fund. You can do this to your cash generates up to an 8% return. The minimum investment amount is just 25 K, and you keep getting paid until you decide that you want your money back. And the private liquidity fund has a decade plus track record, and they've always paid their investors 100% in full and on time. And I would know this because I am an investor with them myself. So see what it feels like to earn 8%. A lot of other great listeners are any investing involves risk, even dollars at a brick and mortar bank. So to learn more, just text the word family to 66866. Learn more about the liquidity fund. Get 8% interest. Just do it right now while you're thinking about it.


Keith Weinhold (00:11:23) - Text family to 66866. Let's meet David Stockman. A Wall Street and Washington insider and Harvard grad. Today's guest is a former two time congressman from Michigan, a prolific author, and he is none other than the man known as the father of Reaganomics. He was indeed President Ronald Reagan's budget advisor. Welcome to the show, David Stockman.


David Stockman (00:11:54) - Great to be with you. And, that was a while back. But I think there's some lessons from that time that we would be well advised to try to apply today, that's for sure.


Keith Weinhold (00:12:05) - Well, it's an illustrious title that you'll never shake. It's a pleasure to have you here. And David is a real estate investing show. At times we need to step back and look at the bigger picture. And now on the economy, one seems to get a different answer depending on who they speak with. You have a highly qualified opinion. What do both investors and citizens need to know today about the condition of the American economy?


David Stockman (00:12:29) - I don't think the outlook is very promising, but I think it's important to understand what that means for real estate investors, because the fact is, if you're in real estate and I know many of your listeners or viewers are very knowledgeable and sophisticated, there's really two ways to look at real estate.


David Stockman (00:12:49) - One is as a property that generates a flow of cash or income that is highly reliable, and that you can count on and produces a rate of return on the invested capital that's attractive. That's one way. The second way is that if you invest at the right time, when perhaps interest rates are falling and therefore multiples or cap rates are becoming more attractive and property values are rising rapidly, mainly because of easy money and lower interest rates, then there's a huge opportunity for capital gains. As another way of generating return on capital. But those are two obviously very different tracks. The capital gains route by old invest, improve flip flop the gain and move on or the, you know, income based rent and earnings based, approach to property. Now, I think the reason I went through this is pretty elementary, of course, is that the macro environment is very different between the first strategy and the second strategy. And therefore, the important thing to understand about the macro environment is which environment are you in and is it conducive to strategy a the income strategy or b the capital gains strategy? I would say right now we're totally in an incomes strategy environment, the first route.


David Stockman (00:14:34) - And that's because as we've gone through several decades of easy money, of rapidly rising asset values, of ultra low interest rates, very high multiples, in terms of property values to income that has generated trillions and trillions of capital gains for smart real estate investors. But I think we're out of that environment, and we're in an environment now where we're stuck with massive public debt and deficits. We're stuck with a, central bank that is, basically painted itself into a corner, created so much fiat credit, generated so much liquidity into the economy that now it will be struggling with inflation for years to come. Which means, notwithstanding Wall Street's constant belief that rate cuts are coming tomorrow, there won't be rate cuts for a long time to come. And what we're facing, therefore, there is likely higher rates for longer. A environment in which property values are flat if not declining, and therefore the capital gains route is not going to work very well. But if you have good properties with good tenants and good cash flows and, rental flows, real estate mine works out pretty well.


David Stockman (00:16:05) - But you have to understand the macro environment. And that's one of the things that I work on daily when I, publish my daily newsletter, which is called, David Stockman's Contra Corner.


Keith Weinhold (00:16:19) - You can learn more about Contra Corner, David's blog, before we're done today. David, you have a lot of interesting things to say. There we are in this environment where rates have been higher, longer. It sounds like you believe that is going to continue to be the. Case is rate cuts will be postponed is a little more difficult question. It's some crystal ball stuff. But can you tell us more about that? What can we expect for inflation in interest rates for the rest of this 2020s decade, which has about six years to go?


David Stockman (00:16:48) - There's going to be high rates for most of this decade because we have so much inflation and excess demand built into the economy. We really went overboard, especially after 2020 with the pandemic lockdowns and then these massive stimulus program, something like $6 trillion of added stimulus, was injected into the economy in less than 12 months.


David Stockman (00:17:16) - That created a undertow of inflation that is still with us. And despite all the hopeful commentary that comes from Wall Street, if you look at it year to date, I don't look at just the CPI because the headline number is somewhat volatile and can be pushed and pulled a lot from a month to month based on nonrecurring conditions. But if you look at something called the 16% trimmed mean CPI, it's just the same CPI, but it takes out the lowest 8%, the highest 8% of price observations each month out of the thousands in the market basket. What it does is basically takes the extreme volatility out of the top and the bottom, and gives you a trend that is more reliable if you're looking like on a quarter by quarter or year by year or even multi year basis, well, I mentioned this is important because the trim means CPI is still running at about 4.3% during the first four months of this year to date. That's not a victory over inflation. That's double what the fed says his target is. And frankly, the Fed's target is a little bit phony.


David Stockman (00:18:35) - I mean, what's so great about 2% inflation if you're a saver and your savings are, you know, shrinking by 30% over the course of a decade, so they're going to have a tremendous wrestling match with inflation, not just for a few more months, but I think for several more years in this decade, I don't see the federal funds rate, which is kind of the benchmark rate for overnight money coming down below 5% very soon, or if at all. And that's because with inflation running at 4% or better, if you have a 5% money market rate, you're barely getting a return on capital, especially if you factor in taxes. You know, it's like it's a rounding error and that doesn't work over time. I mean, you're not going to get long term savings. You're not going to get long term capital investment. If the return is after inflation and taxes are either non-existent or negative, as they've been for quite a while. So even though everybody would like to hope we're going back to the good old days of 0% over 90 money or 1% money, which they got so used to over the last couple of decades.


David Stockman (00:19:55) - It was bad policy. It wasn't sustainable. It caused a huge amount of bubbles and distortions in our economy. But once we finally got to the end of that in March 2022, when the fed had to finally pivot and say, yeah, inflation isn't transitory, it's, embedded, we got to do something about it. People think we're going right back to where we were, and that's the key thing to understand. We are not going right back to where we were, in part because of all this inflation business I've talked about, but also in part because they got so used to borrowing money on Capitol Hill and practically zero interest rates that they are now, you know, they have built in deficits of 2 trillion or more a year. And, we are going to be pushing into the bond pits, massive amounts of new government debt. There's no consensus to do anything about it. You know, if the Republicans talk about reforming the entitlements, the Democrats say you're throwing grandma out the snow. If the Democrats talk about raising revenue, the Republicans talked about, you're going to get slaughtered with higher taxes.


David Stockman (00:21:12) - And then everybody's for more wars and more defense and the bigger and bigger national security budget. And that's all she wrote. If you don't do with revenue, you don't do it national defense and entitlements. The rest of it is rounding errors. And so we're stuck with these massive additions to the debt. Now, everybody knows the public debt. Is 34 trillion. Ready? Yeah. What I'd say they don't understand is that by the end of this decade, you ask about the decade, right? Will we close to 60 trillion of debt. And, if you look at the last CBO, projection they do every year at long term projection, and CBO actually is more optimistic than it is warranted in any way. In other words, their long term assumptions I call rosy scenario. There's no more recessions for the next couple of decades. Inflation is well-behaved, interest rates stay low. Full employment lasts indefinitely and forever. Well, this doesn't happen. Look at the real world. Over the last 20 or 30 years, we've been all over the lot.


David Stockman (00:22:18) - So if you look at the CBO forecast, which is I'm just saying here is exceedingly optimistic. They never are the less are projecting that the public debt and they don't even write this number down in their report because it's too scary, will be $100 trillion before the middle of this century.


Keith Weinhold (00:22:41) - That's a.


David Stockman (00:22:42) - Trillion. Yeah. Now, if you ask people today who are market savvy, I like a lot of your viewers. Where are the Treasury bills, notes and bonds today? Well, if you average it all out, it's about 5%. I don't think it's going to come down much. It'll vary a little bit up and down over time, but let's just say it stays at 5%. That means the carry cost of the public debt of a couple decades will be 5 trillion a year. The interest okay. It's staggering. That's almost as much as the whole federal budget is spending this today at, you know, about 6.6 6.7 trillion. So that's where we're heading, a massive debt crisis because they built in a structural deficit that the politicians and I call it the unite party.


David Stockman (00:23:33) - They fight about silly things, but they agree on the big things which are leading to this outcome. The unit party has no ability to do anything about this structural deficit or the march from the 34 trillion that we're at today to 60 trillion by the end of the decade, and 100 trillion of public debt by mid-century. Now, for a real estate investor, that's probably the most important number you're going to hear. You know, at least this week or maybe this month or even this year, because what it means is that the amount of new government debt flowing into the bond pits, that'll have to be financed and that can't be monetized by the fed anymore because there's too much inflation, is going to put constant, enormous pressure upward on interest rates. And of course, higher interest rates mean lower property values. That's just basic real estate math. That's the environment we're heading into, which means good properties with good income and good rental flows are really the only way to go.


Keith Weinhold (00:24:55) - Yeah, well, there's an awful lot there.


Keith Weinhold (00:24:57) - And with this persistent higher inflation that you expect, the way I think about it is the higher the rate of inflation, the more that moves a person's dollars out of a savings account and instead out onto the risk curve. Well, David alluded to a problematic economy. We're going to come back and talk about more of those warning signs and what you can do about it. You're listening to Get Resuscitation, the father of Reaganomics and Ronald Reagan's budget director, David Stockman, I'm your host, Keith Reinhold. Role under this specific expert with income property, you need Ridge Lending Group and MLS for 256 injury history from beginners to veterans. They provided our listeners with more mortgages than anyone. It's where I get my own loans for single family rentals up to four Plex's. Start your pre-qualification and chat with President Charlie Ridge. Personally, they'll even customize a plan tailored to you for growing your portfolio. Start at Ridge Lending Ridge lending


Speaker 7 (00:26:06) - This is author Jim Rickards. Listen to get Rich education with Keith Reinhold and don't quit your day dream.


Keith Weinhold (00:26:23) - Welcome back to Get Ready. So we're talking with the father of Reaganomics. His name is David Stockman, President Reagan's budget advisor. David, you've been talking about a problematic economy and places we can look and the outcomes that that can create. Why don't we talk about some more of those where we're here in a period where we feel like it's an official recession postponed, for example, are there other places that we should be looking? Is it the sustained inverted yield curve that we had for almost two years, the longest one ever, and a Great Recession predictor? Or is it that we're on the precipice of implosion from a debt to GDP ratio that's at 122%. It actually spiked to 133% when Covid first hit. Or for example, is it something and you've already touched on it a bit, is it more of that federal spending on our debts, interest payments alone each year, which had almost $900 billion for that interest line item that now even exceeds the massive $800 billion that we spend each year on national defense, or should we be looking at somewhere else? So what's out there that's really problematic and what's overblown?


David Stockman (00:27:28) - Okay.


David Stockman (00:27:29) - That's great. And all of those things you mentioned you should be looking at, it depends on your time frame. But I think on the initial question, where is this postponed recession? Why hasn't that happened? The place to look is somewhere that I think most Wall Street analysts aren't focused on, but they should be. And that's a series published by the Federal Reserve that tracks household balance sheets, in other words, liabilities and assets. But there's a particular series that I think is critically important to look at, and it's basically bank deposits, checking account savings accounts plus money market funds. This is all the liquid cash accounts of the household sector, not long term investments in real estate or stocks or bonds, but the short term money. It's the spendable money that households have now, what happened during the pandemic and lockdowns. And then the 6 trillion Is stems that were injected into the economy, like some kind of fiscal madness was going on in Washington, created a total aberration in the amount of cash in the economy, in the household sector, in these accounts that I just mentioned, normally right before the lockdown started and the stimulus was injected, you know, the level of cash accounts was about 12 trillion.


David Stockman (00:29:00) - Within two years it was up to 18 trillion. And normally that cash balance grows about the same rate as the economy. In other words, as incomes go up, people save a small share of their income that goes into various bank accounts. There tends to be a lock step relationship. But what happened during that two year period was there was so much extra cash sent out to the households with the $2,000 checks in the $600 a week extra stimulus money, and then the, trillions that went, you know, for things like the Small Business Administration loan program, which was all forgivable, was about almost upwards of $1 trillion. You know, we could itemize all the others. But this enormous government, unusual cash flow into the economy added to these bank accounts enormously. And then something else happened. The geniuses in Washington, led by Doctor Fauci, decided to shut down half of the service sector, the economy. I'm talking with restaurants and bars and gyms, malls and movies and and all the rest of it.


David Stockman (00:30:09) - So all of a sudden, the normal money that people would have been spending on the service venues, which is a big part of total spending, was stopped. It was kind of forced into artificial savings, sort of government mandated savings. Now, if you put the two together, there was about 2 trillion, extra transfer payments sent out to the public during that two year period. And there was a little over a trillion of normal service spending, restaurants in, etc. that didn't happen because there was a closed sign on the door, compliments of Doctor Fauci, or people were scared to death to go out because, you know, they created all this fear that Covid was some form of black death, which it really wasn't for 95% of the population. In any event, if you put the extra free stuff from the government, 2 trillion and the for savings because of these lockdowns, trillion, you have 3 trillion of unusual cash that flowed into the economy on top of the normal production. Income and profits and spending that would have otherwise gone on.


David Stockman (00:31:26) - Now that 3 trillion temporarily ended up in this account, that I'm just talking about the cash balances of the household sector and its peak, there was about 2.8 trillion extra compared to what would been be the normal case in a regular economy. In a normal economy, that money has been slowly spent down by the household sector, even as the fed has tried to put the screws to the economy. In other words, there was so much extra cash in the system that even as the fed raised interest rates from 0 to 5% and did their darndest to slow things down, all of that excess that was built up during the pandemic period was available to spend. It was spent. And here's the key point. About half of it is now been spent. In other words, there's only about a trillion and a half of the nearest 3 trillion left. Now that is what's delayed the recession. If that big, massive 3 trillion nest egg had been there and the fed began to push rates up as it normally did in a normal cycle, we would have been in recession months ago.


David Stockman (00:32:41) - But what has delayed or deferred the recession is this, cushion, this huge macro piggybank of cash that the government inadvertently or adversely is the case may be generated, during the pandemic period. So that's new. See that? Nobody looks at that because normally it's not a factor. You know, the cash balances are a pretty, prosaic, neutral part of the economy. They're not where you look for the leading edge of where the cycle was going or where new developments may turn up tomorrow. But this time, because of this total aberration of what happened to government transfer payments plus the lockdowns, we have a, X factor, let's call it in the macro picture that is confusing people. It's leading a lot of people to abdicate this no landing scenario. In other words, you know, there's not going to be a recession. We're just going to go on to bigger and better things. And, the fed will get inflation under control and then we can be back to happy times again. No, they're missing.


David Stockman (00:33:56) - The elephant in the room is this massive aberrational unusual one time cash balance that was, generated by these policies. And that still has a little ways to go now. I think at the rate it's being run down, you can almost calculate it a couple hundred billion dollars, a quarter sometime next year, all of that extra cash will be out of the system. And then people will be back to spending only what they're earning. And frankly, earnings they're not. I'm talking about wage and salary earnings, are advancing barely at the inflation rate at the present time. So when we get back to about zero real growth in earnings, we're going to finally see the recession.


Keith Weinhold (00:34:45) - I think one of the big takeaways here is that all these artificial economic injections really take time to unwind.


David Stockman (00:34:56) - Exactly. You have to look at, you know, they always say, well, when the government changes policy, fiscal policy, you tighten or you loosen or monetary policy they raise or lower interest rates. They got QE or they got cute putting money in or taking money out that there's lag and lead times in all of this.


David Stockman (00:35:18) - The problem is, none of the great economic gurus who talk about this really know whether the lag time is 12 months, 25 months, 50 or 5, and it varies. I mean, the circumstance has changed so much in a world GDP of 104 trillion, a domestic economy with 28 trillion of GDP, and all the complex factors that are moving back and forth in today's world, especially as it's enabled by technology and global trade and the internet and all the rest of it, nobody knows the lag times. And as a result, it's very hard to predict when the, brown stuff is going to hit the fan, so to speak. On the other hand, you don't have to know the exact date. You really need to understand the direction, the flow of things. And if you're in an environment that isn't sustainable because you're borrowing like crazy or interest rates or artificially. Low or stock price multiples are way the L2 ie or cap rates on real estate or you know, abnormally low. Then what you have to say is we're going to a different state.


David Stockman (00:36:35) - It's not going to be as conducive as the current state, and we have to be prepared for it, even if we are not sure whether that's 12 months from now or 24 months. But it's going to change. So one thing you can be sure of, there is a famous economist back in my day when I worked on Capitol Hill earlier on, he was Nixon's chief economic adviser in the early 70s. And he famously formulated an aphorism, I guess, which said anything that is unsustainable tends to stop. Okay, that's what I know about the lag times. We're in unsustainable financial, fiscal and monetary environment. And the trends that it has given rise to are going to stop and and not in a good way.


Keith Weinhold (00:37:24) - He even fed Chair Jerome Powell has confessed as much as that. This situation is indeed unsustainable, the exact word that he used. Well, David, this has been great in winding down as Ronald Reagan's budget director. Can you share any anecdote, story or quote from you spending time personally with Ronald Reagan? And the reason I ask is because he is perhaps the most revered president of the past few generations.


Keith Weinhold (00:37:52) - That might mean a lot to our listeners here.


David Stockman (00:37:54) - He should be revered, and not only because he was a great president and a great communicator, and did a lot of important things in policy. Some of them got implemented, and a lot of them were frustrated by Washington and the politicians and the Democrats and everybody else. But also, he was a great human being. And my story about that was when I was budget director, in the fifth year of the Reagan administration, we had our first child, and my wife was in the hospital. At that point in time, President Reagan was in Europe on a very important big international, series of meetings. But, somebody in the white House told him that our daughter had been born. And so he took the time out of his schedule for a call from Germany, the hospital where my wife was, and said he would like to talk to her and, congratulate us on our new arrival. But my wife was in a room with another, a new mother.


David Stockman (00:38:53) - She the other person answered the phone and she said to my wife, there's some joker on the phone with President Reagan. And sure enough, he was there. and he took the time to congratulate my wife. And, so that's the kind of, person he was. He really was a great human being.


Keith Weinhold (00:39:13) - Wow. Yeah. That really shows that he can still be warm and heartfelt, even while doing some key international negotiations there. Potentially. Well, we mentioned it earlier. I can tell you, the audience, that David is a regular author and contributor to his Contra Corner blog and letter, and you can get access to that for free. This is information coming from the father of Reaganomics to you. If you think you would find it a value. David, tell us how our audience can connect with you there.


David Stockman (00:39:44) - Just Google David Stockman Contra corner I publish, I have a website, issues a newsletter every day. It comes automatically in the email. I also have a Substack version. You can sign up for either one, the email from my site or from Substack.


David Stockman (00:40:02) - And every day we try to publish something on these issues that we've been talking about. One day it might be Wall Street, another day it might be Capitol Hill, another day it might be, you know, the war in Ukraine. All of these things matter. All of these things influence the environment that investors have to function in. So we try to comment on a variety of those issues based on, you know, the long experience that I've had, both not only in Washington, but also I was on Wall Street, for about 20 years. I was one of the founding partners of Blackstone, for instance. And we were in the real estate business in a major way, even then.


Keith Weinhold (00:40:44) - Well, we absolutely love that. And I sure am appreciative of your time. It was great connecting with you. And thanks for being on the program today, David.


David Stockman (00:40:53) - Very good. Enjoyed it.


Keith Weinhold (00:41:01) - Yeah. Deep insights from the father of Reaganomics. Stockman thinks we'll be struggling with inflation for years to come.


Keith Weinhold (00:41:08) - There won't be rate cuts for a long time. He sees real estate values as flat or declining, so have good tenants with steady income streams. Of course, in our favoured real estate segment here, residential 1 to 4 units where you can get 30 year fixed rate debt. Higher mortgage rates tend to correlate with higher prices, just like it has for the last three years and almost every period before that too. But there could be more pain for the commercial sector then, and assets that are tied to floating rate debt. And if you're aligned with David Stockman on that, you might want to look at your helocs, because after a fixed rate period, their rates tend to float along with the fed funds rate. So be cautious with Helocs and ask David for specifics. He doesn't see the federal funds rate coming down below 5% anytime soon, and you probably know that is the interest rate that a whole bunch of other interest rates are based off of. And that rate is currently at about 5.3%. By the way, there is projected to be more than 100 t more than $100 trillion of public debt before the middle of this century.


Keith Weinhold (00:42:22) - That's less than 25 years away. I mean, these figures just become unfathomable sometimes. Pandemic wrought inflation that really occurred due to this greater supply of dollars that was introduced chasing a reduced supply of goods. And there were fewer goods because people got paid to stay at home not producing anything. Plus, what had been produced often could not be shipped either. David discussed the 16% trimmed mean CPI, and I've got to say, as much as I am a student devotee in studying inflation, I had never heard of that from his vantage point to find recession signs, look at household balance sheets and what's delayed the recession is that those pandemic measures put an extra 3 trillion bucks into households, and households still have about 1.5 trillion left to spend, which could further delay a recession. He projects that it's sometime next year that all of that extra cash will be out of the system. When you talk to how many people got this recession predictions so horribly wrong? Back in October 2022, Bloomberg Economics forecast a 100% chance of a recession by the following fall, which is almost a year ago now.


Keith Weinhold (00:43:48) - Well, a 100% chance that left no room for anything else to happen. And they really whiffed on that one. Now, you know, I've got to add something here. A personal note if I can, but I'll give you a lesson along with it. And that is that at times like today, where I found myself one degree of separation from one of the most revered presidents in all of American history, I sometimes have some difficulty understanding how I keep having the opportunity to share time with people like today's guest. Now, I'm certainly not a PhD economist. And in fact, on the flip side, I've also never been a person that's been so poor and destitute that I was dying of hunger. But I do come from a modest place. When I flew the coop and left my parents home, I rented my first pathetic place to live a $325 a month pool house in the back of my landlord's property at 852 Spruce Avenue in Westchester, Pennsylvania. Yeah, a pathetic little pool house right next to the landlord's swimming pool.


Keith Weinhold (00:45:04) - I mean, I was living really pathetically there for a while as I was struggling just to do things like find gainful employment and figure out the world and find a steady income. Yeah, it was 325 a month plus electric and the one small heater that was there, it was electric and it was really expensive to run. And on the coldest days, it wouldn't even adequately heat my pathetic little pool house that I ended up living in for 18 months. And just because I couldn't figure a way out of that situation for a while, I mean, I was too ashamed to ever bring a girl back there to that sad pool house. It was just one sink for the whole place. Combined kitchen and bathroom sink in the bathroom. I mean, most of my friends, they got their driver's license at age 16 and they soon had their own car. I didn't own a car until I was aged 22 or 23, and it's not because I lived in an urban area and walked. Everywhere use public transit there in Pennsylvania.


Keith Weinhold (00:46:02) - It just took me a long time to afford a beater car and pay for insurance. I really needed a car and couldn't afford one. So really my point here is that sometimes I have to wonder how I got here from there. And I think what it is is taking an interest in real estate and investing. And despite just having a humble bachelor's degree in geography, it's really about becoming an autodidact, meaning self-taught. And it's easy to teach yourself when you find what interests you. And let me point to two other things besides adopting an auto didactic ethic to help me turn the corner into being in a place where I can have conversations like the one that I've had today. It was getting around aspirational friends. Like I've mentioned before, that showed me how I can start with a bang buy with little money. On my first home, I could put a 3.5% down payment on a fourplex, live in one unit and rent out the other three. And I will give myself some credit for doing those things. And then really, the third thing is that stroke of luck element, like just 4% of world inhabitants have been.


Keith Weinhold (00:47:15) - I was one of that 4% that was born in the United States. And then I had two great, married, stable, supportive parents to cultivate the right environment for me. And well, today was just one of those days where I sort of nudged myself and I'm glad that it happened. Most importantly, I trust that you got value from today's show and that you do every single week here. Check out David Stockman's Contra Corner. Next week, we'll look for signs of distress in real estate as we delve inside the foreclosure market and how you can find discounted deals there. Until then, Idaho's Keith Wayne hold don't quit your day trip.


Speaker 8 (00:48:02) - Nothing on this show should be considered specific, personal or professional advice. Please consult an appropriate tax, legal, real estate, financial or business professional for individualized advice. Opinions of guests are their own. Information is not guaranteed. All investment strategies have the potential for profit or loss. The host is operating on behalf of get Rich education LLC exclusively. The.


Keith Weinhold (00:48:30) - The preceding program was brought to you by your home for wealth building.


Keith Weinhold (00:48:34) - Get rich

Direct download: GREepisode504_.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 4:00am EDT