Mon, 30 March 2020
A 10-step plan to ensure that your tenant pays the rent is revealed. In order, they are: proactivity, commitment, empathy, requirement, options, late fee, installments, security deposit, assistance, documentation. Real estate investors have time to react to the pandemic. Stock investors often didn’t. They lost 10%, 20%, 30% within weeks. Learn how volatility hurts stock investors. If the pandemic were as visible a threat as a fire-breathing Godzilla, more would adhere to shelter-in-place orders. For active real estate offers, pay more attention to where the tenants’ income originates. Large retailers are hiring, small retailers are firing. Caeli Ridge, President of Ridge Lending Group joins me to tell us about how coronavirus has changed the mortgage lending landscape. Jumbo loans and non-QM loans are no longer offered. Credit score, DTI requirements could soon become more stringent. Verification of employment now occurs right before loan funding. Mortgage rates still hover near historic lows. Loan forbearance, loan modification discussed. __________________________ Resources mentioned: Mortgage Loans: QRPs: text “QRP” in ALL CAPS to 72000 or: By texting “QRP” to 72000 and opting in, you will receive periodic marketing messages from eQRP Co. Message & data rates may apply. Reply “STOP” to cancel. New Construction Turnkey Property: Best Financial Education: Follow us on Instagram: Keith’s personal Instagram: |
Mon, 23 March 2020
Unemployment is rising. Mortgage rates hit record lows two weeks ago. Stocks have fallen 32% from recent highs. Oil has fallen with a thud. Your life has changed in order to control the spread of the novel coronavirus. (**The entire episode transcript is below. You can read along as you listen.) Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and HUD have suspended foreclosures and evictions for at least 60 days. This could soon be extended to a year. The IRS tax filing deadline moved from April 15th to July 15th. There are opportunities for you today that you’ve never considered before. Recessions are normal. They occur every 7 years on average. In three of the last five recessions, real estate values appreciated. Consider drawing against your HELOC before it’s frozen. Bill Gates’ epidemic prediction audio clip played. Stocks: the bull market died of coronavirus. I discuss my recent chats with national Mortgage Loan Officers. Good news? Shelter-in-place means you might have the time with your family that you’ve always wanted. __________________________ Resources mentioned: Coronavirus forbearance is here: RE appreciated in 3 of last 5 recessions: Mortgage Loans: QRPs: text “QRP” in ALL CAPS to 72000 or: By texting “QRP” to 72000 and opting in, you will receive periodic marketing messages from eQRP Co. Message & data rates may apply. Reply “STOP” to cancel. New Construction Turnkey Property: Best Financial Education: Follow us on Instagram: Keith’s personal Instagram:
Complete episode transcript:
Welcome to Get Rich Education, I’m your host, Keith Weinhold. As the pandemic unfolds, how do you best position yourself as an investor to be profitable and mitigate loss?
We’re talking about the real estate market, the stock market, and specific, actionable things that you can do for your family and your real estate. Today, on Get Rich Education. _________________________ Welcome to Get Rich Education, I’m your host, Keith Weinhold and no matter where you’re listening to us - any of the 188 nations - your life has changed … due to the pandemic.
Just when you learned to replace your handshake with an elbow bump, now you can't do either one.
Yes, your life looks different now. We are here in the social distancing era.
With major events all cancelled and the closure of businesses & schools, & entertainment venues; it is clear that the global efforts to slow the spread of the coronavirus is an unprecedented experience for you and I.
With people needing to stay home, it creates some new ways of socialization.
For my haircut this week, I don’t think I’m going to go out to get it. I’m hoping that my wife can cut my hair at home.
I can’t go to the gym. Thank goodness that I have a home gym - modest as it is. This is literally life-changing - altering the patterns and habits of you & I’s daily life.
You might see more of your spouse now. You might be homeschooling your kid now.
This is an emotional process for you and I - your relationships with people & things have changed.
You’re now more likely to be listening to me from home rather than out & about - not from work.
But wait. Now, for you, maybe work ... is ... home. Kinda.
If you’re working from home, you’re now ...
... about to find out which meetings really could have instead been ... an email.
Yes, it's simply a strange time to be a human being.
The pandemic has stirred up more uncertainty than just social faux pas and awkwardness.
It's created a breathtaking 32% stock market drop - more on that later. The slowing economy means that oil prices have fallen with a resounding thud. Mortgage rates hit record lows two weeks ago.
The combination of those things might make you, the REAL ESTATE investor, giddy with your predicament.
You might even have - what feels like - an extended adult Spring Break at home with your family.
But the larger economic slowdown can ensnare everyone - yes, the real estate investor too. Some help is on the way.
Just last week, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac announced that they are suspending foreclosures and evictions for at least 60 days - so we’re talking about a lot of conventional loans there.
HUD is doing the same thing. HUD basically means FHA loans.
So I guess that property owners don’t have to pay their mortgages and tenants don’t have to pay their rent for a little while either.
That was followed by the state of New York declaring that certain borrowers in the state could forgo their mortgage payments for up to 90 days.
And there’s just so much NEWS about payment forgiveness and everything else related to the economy and the pandemic that it can be difficult to keep up.
I’ll tell you, I’ve had to scramble - more than normal this week - to pull together the more relevant stories that affect you - because so much is changing so fast.
Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin said just last Friday - three days ago - that the deadline for Americans to file their taxes would be pushed back from April 15 to July 15.
That’s got to be welcome news!
In fact, Mnuchin tweeted: "All taxpayers and businesses will have this additional time to file and make payments without interest or penalties.”
That’s what he said. That’s a 90-day extension. Some relief from the IRS for you.
Now, how long will this kind of alternate society that we’ve now reluctantly formed linger on?
How long will it last?
Self-isolation and playing the ol’ Risk board game or Battleship with your kids might be kinda cool at first - but it gets a little old after a while.
It really gets old once you find that your kid is improving at chess faster than you and he’s starting to beat you.
Well, no one really knows. No one in the world knows how long it’ll last.
So therefore, it’s hard to know whether people are overreacting or underreacting to the news. It’s really hard to know.
Will this last one month? Six months? Or even longer?
The best, most trusted source, I know of thinks that this will probably be with us … through June. Yeah, that’s three more months.
Now, it might peak before that time, but who knows? And a lot of forecasts change … because, again … there are a lot of unknowns here.
But there are a few things that I do know. So let’s think about what we do know.
There will always BE an economy - even if things got far worse.
There will always be an economy as long as there’s a civilization.
Sheesh, there’s an economy in Leavenworth - a maximum security prison.
When this thing ends, if you’ve got a friend or a tenant or yourself that’s been laid off - you’re probably going to return to your job.
But some people might never return to their job. You might see this - as an opportunity.
If you have - or have had - a job that you’re not in love with - this could give you time to find out what you’re good at & what you like doing rather than working for a paycheck.
Use this time to ultimately find out what you want. Then learn some new skills at the Khan Academy online - or somewhere else. See this as an opportunity.
There’s an old saying. If your neighbor loses his job, it’s a recession. If you lose your job, it’s a depression.
And more people are probably thinking about that today ...
But recessions are indeed - a frequent occurrence in the modern economy. This 11 year economic expansion, was an all-time American record.
In response to the pandemic, The Fed is effectively printing tens of billions of dollars - and more - to help keep banks liquid.
This is a process … that devalues the dollar. This is inflationary - which is good for borrowers long-term, and this dollar printing makes investors scurry for real assets that can hold their value.
Yes, real things that can’t be inflated away with profligate monetary policy. I’m talking about assets like water, and timber, and real estate - especially residential real estate.
Now, if for any reason, your income is disrupted, either because you’re out of work or your tenant is having trouble making rent payments ...
If you're losing income and must play defense, and you’re a homeowner, you might have something to work with. Relief can come from your Home Equity Line Of Credit (HELOC). You can make withdrawals for emergencies. Sure - I’ve been talking for years here about how if you’ve got excess equity in your home, you can originate a HELOC. Since home equity is unsafe, and illiquid, and it’s rate of return is always zero, you can use that excess equity in your home. MAKE it liquid. The HELOC can come in the form of a second mortgage. At last check, on a primary residence, you could get an 80% combined loan-to-value ratio HELOC. How that works is if you have a $500K home, you could have $400K of debt against it. That’s the 80%. So then if currently, your home has a $300K loan balance, you can potentially get a HELOC second mortgage for another $100K. OK … your $300K first mortgage plus $100K HELOC has a sum of $400K - which is 80% of your home’s value. So now, you’ve got $100K out of your home. The way that this $100K HELOC works is that your interest rate generally follows the Federal Funds Rate - which the Fed has essentially dropped to 0%. Now, you’ll pay a margin on top of the Fed Funds Rate - but HELOC rates are really low now. Their interest is often tax deductible - and you can spend the HELOC funds on anything at all. You also have the flexibility of making interest-only payments on the HELOC - or paying back extra toward the principal if you prefer. Nice option there. And I’ve gone deep on how HELOCs work on prior shows, so I won’t do that here. But here’s the message if you think that you need some - or want some - liquidity. Originate your HELOC and consider drawing against it - which means pulling the money out - before the bank FREEZES withdrawals from your HELOC funds. Look, here’s what happened during the 2007-2009 Great Recession. Homes were losing value then, and banks flash-froze HELOCs. It happened to me. I still remember getting the letter - it was from a major bank that you’ve heard of. I do remember getting that letter from the bank because I was frustrated that they froze my funds - which was equity in my home that I had previously had access to. So, I’ve told you on past shows, that I can’t think of any reason not to have a HELOC second mortgage on your home, as long as you have adequate equity in it. That way you can choose to either use it by drawing against it - or not. My point today is - consider making a withdrawal on that HELOC before its frozen. Now, say you do that and you’re paying a 5% interest rate on that money. Maybe wherever you put those borrowed funds, now you’re making more than 5% on them because you’re taking those funds and putting them on offense. If so, that’s great. That positive arbitrage. Gotta love that. But what if you take those HELOC funds that you’re paying 5% interest for and you’re playing DEFENSE, and you have them invested in a vehicle that’s MAKING less than 5% interest for you. You know what I would say? What you’re doing is like … you’re paying an insurance premium. You’ve got access to the funds, you’re keeping them liquid, you could be hemorrhaging a bit each month, but it’s like paying an insurance premium in order to have access to your funds. I don’t like to tell people what to do. I like to tell people what I do, and I provide ideas and information here. Now, if you don’t need funds or want funds, well, then there’s less reason to tap your HELOC. Remember too, a high mortgage balance is a great asset protection tool against a bank foreclosure. In an adverse circumstance, the bank doesn’t want to come after you if you still owe $400K on the loan. But they’ll come after the family that only owes $40K on their loan - because the bank could get the property as collateral, and only lose out on the $40K that they would have had coming to them. See, the bank doesn’t want to foreclose on your property where you, the homeowner, would have still owed them 4-HUNDRED K. My point is - if you need to play defense, have a HELOC and consider using it before it gets frozen - IF it gets frozen.
It might not get frozen. See, a big reason that HELOC draws were frozen during the Great Recession 12 years ago is that housing was at the CENTER of the 2007-2009 Great Recession.
From the time that those HELOCs were originated, properties had lost value. As they lost value, that means loan-to-value ratios went up, often in excess of 100%.
So banks froze HELOCs so that they didn’t get exposed to that risk. If you’ve got zero equity in the home or skin in the game, you’re more likely to walk away - as a homeowner.
But see, if we have a pandemic-induced recession, it’s NOT housing-centered like the Great Recession was - with their irresponsible lending practices and overbuilding that occurred then.
Today, we’ve got RESPONSIBLE lending practices and an UNDERsupply of homes. We’re UNDERbuilt.
So, the Great Recession was different - and special.
Now, I don’t know whether we’re set up for a pandemic-induced recession or not. But I’d say that there’s a good chance that we’ll have one. I’d say, a more than 80% chance that we’re in one now.
We don’t actually know that we’re in one until in the future, we look back and see two consecutive quarters of year-over-year GDP contraction. That’s the definition.
But we’re definitely due for a slowdown. We’re in one now.
It’s worth remembering that recessions are actually a normal part of the economy. We have one every 7 years or so.
Our previous five recessions began in 1980, another one in 1981, then 1990, 2001, and finally the aforementioned Great Recession beginning in 2007.
In three of those five recessions - three of the last five, do you know what happened to home prices.
Home prices went up. They INcreased in 3 of the last 5 recessions.
Home prices increased in value anywhere from 1.9 percent to 4.8 percent. I’ll link that in the Show Notes for you.
So, a recession definitely doesn’t mean a drop in property value. Residential real estate is a recession-resilient asset class.
The thing that you need to keep your eye on is, is your tenant keeping their job during this crisis so that they can pay the rent.
By the way, do you know the difference between an epidemic and a pandemic?
As Oxford defines it: An epidemic is a widespread occurrence of an infectious disease in a community at a particular time.
A pandemic is a disease prevalent over an entire nation or the world.
They mean about the same thing, but the pandemic is on a larger scale.
Now, MicroSoft co-founder Bill Gates has received attention recently in predicting that a pandemic was potentially humankind’s greatest understated threat.
In fact, let’s listen to this short clip - this is Bill Gates, more than three years ago in Davos, Switzerland:
Bill Gates clip: “An epidemic - either naturally-caused or intentionally-caused - is the most likely thing to cause, say, 10 million excess deaths. It’s pretty surprising how little preparedness there is for it.”
Yeah, Bill Gates said a lot more than that about it. But he’s appearing to be rather correct here.
Well, what has administration in the United States done for a response? Our political leaders?
Well, initially, Trump and company seemed to throw more money & fewer regulations at the problem.
That’s changing somewhat, as we’ve got more social controls and border closings now.
With the list of these administrative & … policy news stories longer than a Walgreen's receipt, the least you should know is that President Trump and Congress are aiding homeowners and renters alike.
Free testing, and an expansion of unemployment insurance. A stimulus package of one trillion - with a “T” - one trillion dollars or more that looks to involve direct payments to American households … is really going to help provide relief to people. There is lots of precedent for government bailouts in times of crisis.
The U.S. government provided $15 billion to airlines after 9/11, $700 billion to banks to army-crawl through the 2008 financial crisis, and $17 billion to automakers just after that.
Whether you see bailouts as the right way to do things or not, there is that precedent.
Fortunately - some of that help should include your tenant. We might see multiple injections of $1,000 each or more - directly into consumers’ hands. That’s the plan that’s formulating - just write virtually everyone a check. And $1,000 means more to your tenant than it does to you. This can really help Trump and Congress “fill the gaps” between cushions like paid leave and unemployment insurance.
Though that’s gonna cause more long-term taxpayer DEBT - yes, I think a lot of people need the relief in the meantime.
Think about it this way:
To save their economies over the long run, countries around the world are actively putting themselves into recessions.
Productive nations are actively plunging themselves into recession left and right.
Can you imagine that? But even though I’m a finance guy and a real estate investor, I think that it’s the right thing to do.
As odd as it sounds, the best way to heal the likely recession, is not to try to fix the recession. It’s to get into a recession by killing activity in order to control the virus.
The best way to heal the economy is to get people to stay home, stop the spread, and end this sooner.
Look, if you’re riding a bicycle and get a flat tire because there are nails on the road, well then, you don’t get to your destination … by patching the hole in the tire over & over again.
You get to where you’re going by cleaning up the nails on the road - which means that you & your bicycle go nowhere for a while - and then when the nails are picked up, you quickly roll along to wherever you’re going just like the economy should quickly roll along nicely - like it was - before the pandemic hit.
The fastest way to fix the economy is to stop the virus.
As we’ve now learned, even though you might feel like you’re in a digital age with TikTok videos, and an app that digitizes your dinner receipts, and everything else ... Humans still generate trillions in economic activity by coming into close, physical contact with one another—sitting at restaurants, assembling auto parts, traveling on planes, getting haircuts. But public health officials stress that to slow the spread of the coronavirus, we must all maintain a safe distance from each other, even if we’re healthy. But that still doesn’t square with our economy’s structure. Be mindful that recessions and surprises happen constantly. But this one feels a little more surprising for a few reasons - a virus is sort of intangible - you can’t see it - and there’s the fact that we just had a great loooooong run of 11 years.
That was the longest economic expansion in American history.
I think that this pandemic is the biggest news story since 9/11 - where you’re just kind of like, “I can’t believe this is happening.” But this WILL pass. It always does.
Look at what we’ve had in the last - not even 20 years: 9/11, Hurricane Katrina. The great recession. Superstorm Sandy. And now, you might call this the great shutdown.
With the economic slowdown, I’d expect sudden, deep, and brief.
I hope and expect that it will be sudden - it already has been sudden, that it will be deep - with massive layoffs, - and that it will be brief.
There are two prior Get Rich Education episodes that are getting a lot of attention right now.
One of them is named “A Recession Is Coming”. I released that in November of 2018.
One year later, I released an episode named “Planning For A Recession”. That was released in November of 2019, just four months ago.
“A Recession Is Coming” is Episode 215, and “Planning For A Recession” is Episode 265 if that makes it easier for you to find them.
I’m coming back with more here - with “Your Pandemic Investing Strategy & Mindset”. This is “Get Rich Education”. ____________________________
Hey, you’re back inside Get Rich Education. And welcome, you’re squarely in the #WFH Era.
The “Work From Home” Era.
Yes, this alternate world where working from home is NOT frowned up - and going into the office IS frowned upon. I’m your host, Keith Weinhold.
I’d like to emphasize that no one really knows about the next turn that society and the economy will take during this pandemic. That’s because we are in uncharted territory.
Because I don’t think very many people were alive to remember the Spanish Flu of 1918.
As far as the most recent territory that HAS been charted ...
Last Friday, stocks, as measured by the S & P 500, fell more than 4%. So as of today, Monday, March 23rd, 2020, stocks have now fallen more than 32% from their recent high.
How many people with 401(k)s have lost 32% of their account’s value? Some of them, even more, oh … and that’s just in the last month or two.
And last week, stocks posted their worst week since the height of the financial crisis.
The bull market died of coronavirus.
That’s what happened.
Now, why am I talking about stocks more than usual both this week & last - since I’ve talked about the pandemic quite a bit on both of these shows?
It’s because stocks are often a LEADING indicator of what investors expect is coming.
(And note that I’m being kind by calling stock buyers true “investors”. A lot of them are just speculators.)
Now, a stock bear market is when stocks fall 20% or more from a recent high.
Do you have any idea how good of a predictor a bear market is of a recession? Well, I can tell you.
73% of stock bear markets have been accompanied by a recession.
As a forward-looking mechanism, the stock market usually sends warnings about the economy before shrinking growth shows up in the data.
So yes, in the 11 stock bear markets we’ve had since WWII, 8 of the 11 have resulted in a recession. That’s that 73%.
While it remains to be seen, real estate may be insulated to some extent - and that is because of tight residential inventory, high buyer demand, low mortgage rates, and lower prices for lumber and oil.
Recessions are not officially declared until the economy is already deep into them, or until after they’ve passed. We could look back later and say the recession started this month.
That’s because so much of our economy has to do with consumer spending - you buying a frappucino, you filling up your car with gas, you buying a boat.
Consumer spending accounts for about 70% of GDP.
Now, here on the show, we’ve spent the last few years focused on rental SFHs and properties up to four-plexes in size.
Though it’s still a developing story, there’s been some evidence that the ventilation system in larger apartment buildings - can transmit the virus. I … sure hope that’s not true.
I talked to two prominent national MLOs last week.
Low rates will outlast coronavirus.
Markets are anticipatory - so once the virus is past it’s peak, prices of real estate should be rather buoyant.
Be mindful too, that because we focus on investing in the United States Midwest & South - what i call the stable markets - instead of the volatile, coastal markets.
Just generally here, coastal properties and stocks here near the start of the decade - are very much alike.
They’re both overpriced, they’re both low yielding, and they're both susceptible to fall in value.
In these times, RE could be like the cleanest dirty shirt in the investment world - where you get the best risk-adjusted return.
Better than bond yields, and better than 2% dividends from the S & P 500.
With factories closed, supply chain kinks can LIMIT housing supply - and housing was already in short supply.
I think that some people either won’t have the confidence or capacity to buy a home.
Well, good. Then what they’ll do, is rent. You want them renting from you. More people in the renter pool … is to your advantage.
But they’ve got to have an income.
It’s important to remember that a pandemic is different from a financial crisis—bargain-basement interest rates can help keep businesses afloat, but the “social distancing” measures recommended by health officials mean canceling events and avoiding crowded places, which will curb spending.
Interest rates can’t fix that, though low interest rates are great for borrowers.
Think about how this has affected society - maybe in some other ways you haven’t thought about.
I know friends that spent months training for marathons that were cancelled.
MLB, the NHL, NBA seasons suspended.
Think about college & HS seniors that might have played their last game - without even knowing it. The pandemic ended their career - did you ever think about that?
Of course, this is minor. Some people have lost their lives, others have lung damage.
How’s your grandma doing - hopefully you get some time to video chat with her.
Maybe, just maybe, there is a huge silver lining to all of this with people staying home.
Maybe more time as a family is what we need. Maybe we’ve gotten so caught up in following the madness of busy-ness, and that this is a reset - and you can have some health benefits - and exercise more.
Maybe, after the short term economic losses have faded, some might place a much higher value on what is most important in their lives. Maybe.
We should salute and express our gratitude to the millions of frontline workers who are making tremendous efforts to help us all.
That includes our world class medical staff and others that you’re not thinking about too many others too - the calm grocery store & pharmacy workers and the tireless drivers bringing important supplies to hospitals & warehouses & stores & our own doorsteps.
Think about the spouses of some of those people too. My wife is a medical worker and I’m a little fearful that she’ll bring the virus home.
Realize that fear of the Coronavirus may keep people away from restaurants and small businesses who usually operate on small margins.
So here’s something you can do!!
From your favorite local business or restaurant, you can buy a gift card.
Buy it directly from that favorite place so they get the use of your money for the next few weeks or months.
Then ....when things have settled down, treat your sweetie to an evening out or buy something for someone and use your gift card‼ That’s something simple and actionable you can do to help the economy and your community.
Thank you delivery workers. Thank you doctors, nurses & medical staff. Thank you grocery workers. Thank you truck drivers.
If you like to see the headshots of the guests we have here on the show and see the show notes, it’s easy.
For this episode, #285, simply go to GetRichEducation.com/285
Now, we might only have the complete lyrics for the episode transcribed for maybe ten percent of episodes.
But for both today’s show and last week’s show, you can see the entire transcription there.
That way, you can read along as you listen, or share that transcription with someone else who, perhaps, wants this content but isn’t able to hear. So you can check out:
GetRichEducation.com/284 for last week’s show notes with complete transcription or GetRichEducation.com/285 - for this week’s.
I’ll be back with you next week. If you want to help the economy, then, you might be best off, just staying home!
It’s part of doing the right thing before you do things right.
I’m Keith Weinhold. Don’t Quit Your Daydream! |
Mon, 16 March 2020
The novel coronavirus threatens life, business, and the economy. 11 years of U.S. economic expansion could end soon. (**The entire episode transcript is below. You can read along as you listen.) Closed businesses mean that supply chains are disrupted. This could make it difficult for flippers and value-add apartment projects. Travel, hospitality, and leisure business troubles mean that short-term rentals like AirBnB will have high vacancies. Short-term rentals cater to business travelers and vacationers - both vulnerable in this downturn. Long-term rentals are better positioned. As long as people are alive, they need a home. Mortgage interest rates have hit their lowest rate EVER since they’ve been tracked in 1971. The Fed made a 0.5% emergency rate cut. Expect more cuts. This punishes savers and rewards borrowers. Stocks recently fell more than 20% from their recent high; that's the definition of a bear market. Coronavirus’ effects are fast-moving and no one really knows the future. This is uncharted territory. With this in mind, I’d expect real estate to fare better than other asset classes. Also expect: Stronger: dollar, bonds, gold. Weaker: many stocks & businesses, short-term rentals, oil, silver. The unemployment rate will likely rise; I discuss what this means for your tenants. Low mortgage interest rates can be locked in for 30 years, outlasting the coronavirus pandemic. Check out our two new property providers in Orlando and Des Moines: getricheducation.com/orlando and getricheducation.com/iowa __________________ Resources mentioned: Properties, with two new markets: Recommended Coronavirus resource: Peak Prosperity YouTube Channel Mortgage Loans: QRPs: text “QRP” in ALL CAPS to 72000 or: By texting “QRP” to 72000 and opting in, you will receive periodic marketing messages from eQRP Co. Message & data rates may apply. Reply “STOP” to cancel. New Construction Turnkey Property: Best Financial Education: Follow us on Instagram: Keith’s personal Instagram:
Complete episode transcript:
Welcome to Get Rich Education. I’m your host, Keith Weinhold. The coronavirus, COVID-nineteen, has infected humans and financial markets too.
This creates both problems and opportunities for you, the investor. Today, on Get Rich Education.
Welcome to GRE. From Uruguay to the Ukraine to the UAE to the USA and across 188 nations worldwide, this is Get Rich Education. I’m your host, Keith Weinhold.
Yeah, you’re back in that abundant place, where your QUALITY OF LIFE exceeds your cost of living.
The novel coronavirus (COVID-nineteen) that began in Wuhan, China in November of last year when it transferred from animal to human is poised to affect the economy of every world nation and every U.S. state.
It's not SARS or Zika.
This transmits easily and it is perhaps 20x more deadly than the common flu.
Some experts believe it's the worst outbreak in America since the Spanish flu of 1918.
That was the worst pandemic of the 20th century.
And you know what, it didn’t have to be this way ... with coronavirus.
As my chief informant on the matter, Dr. Chris Martenson says, it didn’t have to be this way.
Often placing the economy ahead of human life, health organizations and governments have often done a DEPLORABLE job of handling this, often understating the threat.
The World Health Organization was even reluctant to acknowledge that the coronavirus is a global pandemic … which it surely has been for a long time. Well, they only acknowledged that five days ago.
Well now that agencies weren’t preparing people sooner - coronavirus is poised to threaten even more people - which in turn, will make the economy even worse than if the threat had just been accurately represented in the first place.
I’m going to focus on coronavirus’ likely effects on real estate and the other financial markets shortly.
But let’s - you and I - outline this together first.
The virus causes only mild or moderate symptoms for most people, like a fever and cough …
… but it can progress to serious illness including pneumonia, especially in older adults and people with existing health problems.
The World Health Organization says mild cases last about two weeks, while most patients with serious illness recover in about three to six weeks. Based on what I said earlier, consider the source there.
My heart goes out to the victims of this - past, present, and future.
The most credible source that I follow thinks that the virus will reach its peak in the U.S. 1 to 3 months from now.
I've followed this story closely since January and if you receive our Get Rich Education newsletter, you’ve known for a while that my favorite source of TRUSTWORTHY coronavirus information was and still is: the Peak Prosperity YouTube Channel, which Chris Martenson hosts.
In fact, I’ve mentioned that resource in our GRE newsletter for you twice - the first time was back on February 6th.
So if you get the Get Rich Education Newsletter, you’ve had plenty of time to get in front of this.
You know, it’s interesting. I had Chris Martenson on the show here earlier this year and we talked about “The Fed” printing money. That was right before coronavirus literally went viral.
Before I tell you about the affects on your real estate - both good and bad - let’s establish a baseline here.
Coronavirus is threatening because it has a substantially higher R-naught value than the flu.
If the R-naught value is greater than 1, that means that one infected person will spread the virus to MORE THAN one person then the disease can spread.
The way a virus dies out is for it’s R-naught value to be less than 1. Then, one infected person, on average spreads it to fewer than one person.
Well, the common flu has an R-naught value of about 1.3.
Coronavirus (COVID-nineteen) is believed to have an R-naught value of more than 3 and maybe even more than 6. So it spreads easily.
It spreads asymptomatically - and that’s bad.
There’s no vaccine available - and most believe it’ll take a while to develop one.
And, you can find resources elsewhere on how to prevent the spread like social distancing, avoiding gatherings, and lots of handwashing.
But because this is an investing platform and I don't have a degree in pathology or epidemiology, and much of what I just told you there, I learned myself in the past month or two …
Let me now get into my lane: how do I think coronavirus will affect your money and your real estate?
Well, it probably already has.
Businesses are closing. Colleges have suspended classes. Many events are being cancelled or postponed.
SXSW in Austin, Texas was one of the first major EVENTS to be cancelled in the U.S. March Madness basketball won’t have any crowd there.
We’ve got an entire country - Italy - that’s essentially shut down.
When businesses close and more people work from home, this disrupts supply chains.
That COULD include less supply of sheet rock or faucet handles or whatever - and affect value-add properties because so much building material comes from China.
It could be a tougher time to be a flipper then if you’re about to start a rehab or if you’re in the middle of a rehab.
If you're upgrading an apartment building, that could slow things down. You need materials.
This may or may not create disruptions for turnkey property providers. We’ll see.
You’re in a better position if you’re a prospective turnkey buyer waiting on a rehab - maybe that’ll create a delay until your property is ready. Maybe it won’t.
China accounts for nearly 30% of world manufacturing.
But importantly, they also make component goods for finished products.
An American car can't be finished if it doesn't have the battery and exhaust system from China.
Virtually every major car company has a component made in China.
Now, I see conflicting reports of whether some previously closed Chinese businesses have really come back online or not. We need to learn more there.
Travel, hospitality, and leisure businesses are already hurting.
Now, where hospitality meets real estate, we’ve got hotel rooms, Bed & Breakfasts and short-term rental platforms like AirBnB and VRBO.
Like I’ve said before, and not too long ago on the show at all - is that these short-term rentals are not very recession-resistant.
That’s because short-term rentals cater to two main groups of people - business travelers and vacationers. That’s who occupies those properties.
Well, what are business travelers and vacationers doing right now? They are postponing travel or cancelling travel left-and-right due to coronavirus concerns.
How great would you feel about owning AirBnBs right now?
Short-term rentals like AirBnBs are not as recession-resistant as long-term rentals.
Just a couple, three months ago, it probably sounded different to you when I mentioned that short-term rentals aren’t very recession-resistant.
Because perhaps you were still feeling good about our 11-year-long economic expansion.
But those same words probably sound and feel different to you now that some think that a coronavirus-induced recession could even be imminent - though that remains to be seen.
Also, expect big hits to: chemicals, pharmaceuticals, and electronics.
Apple Corporation is so dependent on Chinese manufacturing for their iPhone. That’s the bad news.
Now, let’s talk about the good news.
Mortgage interest rates have hit all-time lows - yes, lower than their lows that they hit in 2012, shortly after coming off of the Great Recession.
All-time lows - as long as Freddie Mac has been tracking them - which is since 1971. They’ve never been lower than they are now.
Today, you can get a rate in the low 3s for primary residences, I’ve even heard of a few people closing 30-year fixed amortizing loans for less than 3%. Just astoundingly good.
And of course, investor loans are often about ¾% higher than those.
The Fed has been pumping tens of billions, even hundreds of billions into the system lately … for bank liquidity.
The Fed's emergency interest rate cut of 0.5% two weeks ago is first time we've seen such a move since 2008.
That 2008 cut was in the wake of The Great Recession - that was the Lehman Brothers emergency one-half-of-one-percent cut.
Just a quick economics primer if you’re a new listener - lower interest rates for loans stoke the economy because they make you more willing to borrow & spend.
Interest rate cuts help the investor class like you, and not poor people. That’s just the truth behind who cuts actually help. It’s you!
It helps the Get Rich Education listener - you again - even more because we’re such strong proponents of responsible and sensible borrowing here.
Now, note that lower rates don’t help contain the diseas. If your grandparent gets sick, Jerome Powell’s decisions aren’t going to help that.
Right, how low would rates have to be to get you to travel to China or Italy tomorrow?
By the way, after the rate cut, President Trump was not satisfied with the amount of easing and cutting.
“More easing and cutting!” is what he tweeted following the central bank’s announcement.
But realize, of course, that long-term mortgage rates don’t move on that Fed Funds rate. The Fed controls the short-term rate - though there’s generally still a correlation there.
Long-term mortgage rates - like the ones that you really care about for real estate - they move with bond yields.
Now, bonds are like the boring can of beans or soup in the finance world - they’re safe and they’re stable.
Vigorous bond-buying makes bond prices go up and makes bond yields go down.
So this strong bond-buying … this safe have ... has dropped the 10-Year Treasury Note yield below 1% for the first time ever … and it’s fallen substantially below 1% in just a fantastic fall off the table.
OK, so they’re below 1% - and that’s a rate that was unthinkable just a few months ago.
Do you know what the average spread is between this bond yield and the 30-year mortgage rate?
On average, mortgage interest rates hover 1.8% above this rate, so you can see how low we could be going.
I think that the historic spread will widen, but despite the fact that we now have record - I mean all-time record low mortgage rates, there’s a good chance that they’ll go a little lower yet.
This is great for your new real estate buys. Refinance activity is surging right now.
But back to short-term rates that the Fed influences - more cuts there seem imminent too.
The next one could happen at the Fed's regularly scheduled meeting, which happens tomorrow and the next day.
So you’ll hear an announcement from The Fed this Wednesday about their rate cut decision.
The Fed loaded up with dry powder in 2018 when they raised rates, so that they can lower them at a time like this.
Every time they cut the rate like this, it punishes savers and rewards borrowers.
No one knows if rates will go negative - and only a few places in the world have those right now: places like Japan, Denmark, and Switzerland. We’ve never had them in America.
U.S. stock market investors are getting killed with all this uncertainty. Indices are whipsawing with volatility.
Fear pushes stocks around, but not RE. The U.S. stock market dropped 3% in just minutes when a report came out that in CA, a large number of people were exposed to coronavirus, but weren’t.
Last week was the first time that major stock indices dipped into bear market territory. That’s defined as a 20% loss from a recent high.
There was one recent trading day - just one day - where the S&P dropped 7%, triggering a circuit breaker, which paused trading for everyone for 15 minutes. Yeah, now we’re talking about all these automatic fail-safes. When the stock market loses so much, so soon, there’s a pause in trading. By the way, the way it works is that if the S&P had declined 13% in a day, trading would’ve paused another 15 minutes. 20% in a day, and everyone would have gone home for the day. That’s how it works. Yeah, they put those circuit breakers in place after 1987’s Black Monday, when the market fell between 22 and 23%. Stock drops are always sickening,l and if you’re within 5 years of retirement, stock drops are really scary. I’ve told you before that I haven’t owned any stock, mutual fund, or ETF since 2014 and that’s still true today. Being in something stable like real estate has rarely felt as good as it has lately.
And you know something, “volatility” is a funny word.
It seems like “volatility” used to mean something that changes rapidly, and anymore, it’s morphed into something that only means a change for the worse.
Warren Buffett says, "The stock market is a device for transferring money from the impatient to the patient."
I believe that. I’d even say that - not just the stock market - but just that, “MARKETS OVERALL are devices for transferring money from the impatient to the patient.”
Real estate investors like us are more patient. There’s no flash-selling in real estate. It might take you 30, 60 days or more to sell a property … or to buy a property.
I’d expect to see a stronger U.S. dollar because the world views it as a safe haven asset.
I expect this to be a nice tailwind for real estate too, because the world views U.S. real estate as a safe haven asset in times of uncertainty.
Gold should be strong with coronavirus concerns. That’s easy to say, since gold is the classic safe haven asset.
But remember that gold might not APPEAR stronger to Americans if the dollar strengthens.
That’s how it works. Because if gold goes up 10% and the dollar also gets 10% stronger, well then it takes just as many dollars to buy the gold.
The dollar-denominated gold price would look the same then.
I’ve read that a number of experts predict silver prices to rise on coronavirus concerns, but then I don’t see any sound rationale for them thinking this.
I disagree. I would NOT expect silver to rise.
That’s because silver has more industrial use than gold and more industrial slowdown is expected.
Let's talk more about your income properties in this coronavirus environment.
Though I'm speculating now, what if your tenant is required to self-quarantine at home and they lose their income?
This is not far-fetched.
Washington state officials were really some of the first in the U.S. to recommend that workers stay at home when they suggested that Seattle-area residents work from home.
More & more people can work from home today than anytime in modern history.
But when we’re talking about your tenants, it's unlikely that all of your tenants will lose substantial income.
Now, there are some positions where people can’t work from home so well, like mechanics, janitors, chefs and wait staff, sure. Let’s consider that ...
The current unemployment rate is 3.5%.
I’m really speculating here, but if 1 in 10 of your tenants is both laid off & without income, that’s a 10% increase in unemployment. That would be huge.
That would be like the unemployment rate going from 3.5% all the way up to 13.5% - which seems unfathomable!
And yes, realize that if 1 in 10 people were laid off it wouldn’t exactly make the 3.5% unemployment rate shoot up to 13.5%. It doesn’t exactly work that way with how it’s calculated.
But, I think you get my point.
If 1 in 10 of your tenants were both laid off and without employment, that would be massive. So keep that in perspective. Even 1 in 10 would be a lot.
Last week, Trump floated the idea of a payroll tax cut, which I don’t think would do much of anything to help - and also, extending paid leave which seems more helpful.
Companies, especially those in the service sector, are under pressure to provide paid sick leave to workers who may not be in a financial position to take time off.
Wal-Mart and McDonald’s put in safeguards for their employees.
Congress might step in. A bill has been introduced that would require companies of all sizes to provide paid sick leave.
Could your overall rental income go down? Maybe, though you have to speculate quite a bit to even think that 1 in 10 would go without an income. So that’s a maybe.
But does your mortgage interest rate go down? Definitely. It already has.
What about you?
If you lose your job, you need multiple income streams ... from places like your rentals.
And if 9 out of 10 … or 10 out of 10 of your tenants still have jobs, you probably still have that income stream because you set up your life for multiple income streams if you’ve been listening to this show & acting.
What about you - what about your job? Well ...
The lower your financial freedom, the higher the risk.
The more income streams you’ve built, the better off you are.
What about your job? The lower your financial freedom, the higher the risk.
Another benefit of a paid sick leave movement gaining momentum, is that “When people gain access to paid sick leave, the spread of the flu decreases.”
Because they’re more likely to stay home then. So that makes paid sick leave seem like more of reality.
It’s important in this situation that when you have people who have symptoms and don’t feel well, that they do not go to work and spread diseases to slow the infection rate and buy time for public health officials to develop a vaccine.
Let’s look at oil prices - because that’s a substantial input to inflation and oil is a real proxy for what’s going on in the economy. Oil prices have crumbled faster than a Nature Valley Granola bar. And that’s even before a coronavirus-induced slowdown. What’s happened, is that with President Trump in the White House and the Republican Party controlling the Senate, environmental activists have shifted their focus from pressuring the government to pressuring the private sector instead. Since JPMorgan is such a big financier of the fossil fuel industry, activists have really turned up the heat on them and other big banks to stop financing oil projects. That’s significant - on top of a slowdown in the economy - if fewer goods need to be produced and shipped, it uses less energy and then there’s less demand for oil. Low oil prices are generally good for consumers but bad for producer countries.
In the U.S., low oil prices are not good for real estate in areas like west Texas, parts of Louisiana, and Alaska.
But, of course, there’s the flip side of all this. At some point, low stock and oil prices mean that bargain hunters come in to float the market again at some point.
In fact, billionaire investor Sam Zell recently made remarks that oil looks like a “buy low” opportunity. So let’s look at the bottom line - real estate is still quite well-positioned as long as you’re in residential, long-term rentals that you bought for cash flow. Elsewhere: Bonds win, gold wins, the US dollar wins, many business sectors - like the ones I mentioned - lose, stocks lose, oil loses, and silver loses.
Of course, let me qualify all that by telling you that that’s my outlook and that we don’t have any recent precedent for anything else like the coronavirus. No one REALLY knows. That’s my take. --------
If you happen to be a new listener to the show, you may not know much about me. I’ve authored many written articles for both Forbes and the Rich Dad Advisors.
Business Insider recently wrote two stories about me and Get Rich Education - and how I’ve helped everyday people create financial freedom through real estate investing.
That’s what I do here!
I’m a current member of the Forbes Real Estate Council.
But maybe the more important things I can tell you are that I’ve been the host of this show every week - and I mean EVERY week continuously since 2014 - you can count on me to keep showing up here.
I own three real estate trademarks. In 2017, I authored an international best-selling book on how real estate makes ordinary people wealthy.
And perhaps the most important thing I can tell you is that I invest right alongside you, from the exact same providers that we talk about here.
Though I travel pretty well, I’ve lived my entire life in the United States, dividing this life of mine between two states - Pennsylvania and Alaska.
I have spent the last 2-and-a-half weeks visiting four countries - the United Arab Emirates, Oman, India, and Sri Lanka. Though I’m a real estate guy, I have a degree in geography so I like to travel.
One of the coolest things I did is sandboarding on a sand dune in the Arabian Desert there in the United Arab Emirates. I couldn't find another interested person, so I did that activity all by myself. Going high in the world's tallest building, the Burj Khalifa in Dubai, was a “must” while we were there. Muscat, Oman has some surprisingly beautiful sights, and buildings, and mosques that we toured. Really clean-looking there in the nation of Oman. Immersing myself in Indian culture is something that was really novel to me - the food, the way that - the women especially in some of these outlying provinces like Goa and Kerala, India - the way the women dress in such colorful outfits ... just if they’re walking to the market to buy some guava. Such an exotic feeling there. The coolest thing that I did is visiting the world's largest slum. It’s called Dharavi and it’s in Mumbai, India. It's just sooo different from my world. There are actually bustling little businesses inside the slums there - from plastic recycling to pottery. And the Indian people were so welcoming - even in the slums - which was just amazing to me. As I like to say, seeing poverty enriched me. :o) I’ve got more on coronavirus and your money straight ahead. A fair bit of what I’ve discussed here about coronavirus and your money and your real estate, is material that I sent in our wealth-building Get Rich Education newsletter about 12 days ago. The newsletter is a nice, written supplement to the podcast. Of course, you can unsubscribe at any time - but very few do. My wealth-building newsletter is something that you can subscribe to … for free … at GetRichEducation.com You’ll be glad you did. You’re listening to Get Rich Education. _____________________________________
Welcome back to Get Rich Education. I’m your host, Keith Weinhold.
It’s unknown whether coronavirus will tilt the economy into a recession or not. It’s too soon to know. I’ll keep you updated on that here, of course.
For you, I think it helps to listen to a perspective that’s invested through a recession before.
I’ve been investing directly in real estate since 2002 - which was before the Great Recession.
I made a major income property purchase in 2007 - which was just within that recession (in fact, I mentioned that four-plex purchase last week on the show).
And I kept buying in 2010, as the recession wound down - and in 2012.
Well, what’s the common thread there? It’s that I continued to prosper because I bought for cash flow first.
It’s that I bought in multiple geographic markets for diversification - a recession-resilient strategy.
Residential rentals that were leased to long-term tenants.
People need a place to live. And as long as they're alive, a virus is not going to change that.
But see, a virus might mean people stop using vacation rentals and stop taking business trips and stop going to the mall and stop going to the office to work.
We’re talking about HOMES. Well, we could soon have more people working from … home.
Not office, not retail, not short-term rentals. They all look vulnerable now.
And by the way, that doesn’t mean I’m a permabear on those asset types. There’s always opportunity. But recession-resistence just isn’t one of their qualities.
I’m not saying short-term rentals never make an ounce of sense or anything like that.
Some companies are basically using the coronavirus as an experiment for that moment when “working remotely could broadly replace working in-person.”
Some people think that time is coming.
This can ACCELERATE THE - you’re seeing the acronym “WFM” around a lot more now -
With each passing day, the camp of people believing that this is all fear-mongering loses troops.
We’ll see if the peak for coronavirus will be that 1-3 months from now like some experts predict. That’s the latest I’ve heard from credible sources. But again, we really don’t know.
That’s why I like to focus on things that we do know. So let’s focus on what we do know now:
The coronavirus threat will pass sometime. We just don’t know when. But it will pass.
A second thing we know is that people will continue to need a home - a place to live.
And thirdly, mortgage interest rates have hit their lowest level in American history.
So with those being the things that we DO know - this can be QUITE an opportunity to not only lock up investment property buys at historically low rates, but potentially, do that cash-out refinance of your existing home if you think that that’s in your best interest.
Procrastinators often aren’t rewarded. But, hey, maybe you are this time with rates being this low - or maybe you really weren’t because you had dead equity accumulated in one place for too long.
With borrowing rates underneath the basement, a lot of homeowners are racing to lock in cheaper loans. I think we could see low to mid 3% rates on investment properties, and below 3% on primary residences. Mortgage refinancing applications have more than doubled in volume from the same time last year - that’s according to the Mortgage Bankers Association. And industry records are being shattered. Bloomberg reported that : The country’s No. 1 mortgage lender, Quicken Loans, recently had its busiest day for mortgage applications in its 35-year history. United Wholesale Mortgage approved a single-day record of $2.5 billion in loans. These stories are all over the place. The thing is, to process this flood of applications you’re going to need a lot of people. So the mortgage industry is on a hiring spree to take advantage of the gold rush. Our preferred mortgage provider is doing a lot of volume now as well - RidgeLendingGroup.com - that’s R-I-D-G-E. Just calculate your ROI just from principal reduction alone at these low rates. It’s pretty remarkable. I think that the thing that you need to remember is … that long-term thinking. "Investing should not be about a MOMENT; it should be about a PROCESS OVER TIME.” Some of the classic problems with GETTING STARTED in real estate are ones that I’ve helped solve for you here.
I think that Problem 1 for people is that they feel like it costs a small fortune to GET started.
Problem 2 is FINDING the property. Often times, it’s because properties in your area don’t make sense with your 20% down payment and 80% loan.
I’ve really helped solve both of those problems.
By selecting investor-advantaged markets, with down payment & closing costs you can get started with as low as … about $18K - and they’re in areas where the numbers make sense … all at the website … GREturnkey.com
In fact, at the top of the page there, there’s that 8-step flowchart where I walk you through the process.
You start by getting pre-approved for a mortgage - I even suggest where - and then reading an investor due diligence report …
… all the way through to viewing properties, making an offer, getting your third-party inspection, appraisal, signing your Management Agreement, Closing on the Property … and then the really good part - years of owning and collecting the rent.
It’s rarely been easier - though the process still takes time & you need to supply your mortgage loan underwriter with plenty of documentation.
That’s all outlined at the same place where I buy my property: GREturnkey.com
What about some current highlights over there?
Well, it’s a great time to invest in Florida for a lot of reasons - you’ll find providers in Tampa, Orlando, and Jacksonville.
Our Orlando provider was recently added - they’re now - and they have NEW CONSTRUCTION - yes, newly-built, never-before occupied - single-family homes and duplexes … and they’re in locations from the Space Coast to The Villages, through Orlando, and nearly out to Tampa.
We’ve got another new provider on the page if you’re looking for more cash flow and less appreciation than what you’d typically get on new construction, and that is in … Iowa.
Yeah, I’m proud to introduce the Des Moines, Iowa market to you today.
It’s a model of midwestern stability and Des Moines has an MSA population of 600 to 700,000 people.
Des Moines has seen an average 3.6% appreciation over the last twenty years. I think of it as a cash flow market.
A lot of times, you might be buying for, say a 4 or 6 or 8 or 10% cash-on-cash return today.
If you have a little more patience and you want to potentially double your CCR, then, rather than the turnkey model - where you buy a property that’s already renovated - you might prefer the BRRRR model.
That stands for Buy – Renovate – Rent – Refinance – and Recycle Model - recycling your money to re-use right away.
That BRRRR model is suited to Baltimore, Maryland - within commuter distance to Washington, D.C. at just a fraction of the price.
All those markets - including the new turnkey markets with inventory TODAY in Orlando and Des Moines, plus the Baltimore BRRRR market, plus that 8-step flowchart that helps serve as a roadmap for you are all in one convenient place - all on one page - at GREturnkey.com
Market uncertainty is a short-term phenomena.
But when you lock up these lowest mortgage interest rates in American history - they can last you 30 years.
When the dust settles from any current news, you know what, you’ve still going to have your mortgage rate.
Stay safe. Enjoy these historically low mortgage interest rates … I sure am. Take action at GREturnkey.com
I’m Keith Weinhold and I’ll be back next week to help you build your wealth. Don’t quit your daydream!
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Mon, 9 March 2020
You’ll struggle unnecessarily in life if you “maximize” conventional retirement plans. How can this be? Historically, rather than deferring your income into the future with a 401(k), 403(b), 457 Plan, TSP, IRA … … you could invest in a real, cash-flowing asset that improves your life BOTH now and later. I make a case that a “dollar per dollar” employer match in your 401(k) could be worth it. But only up to that level. Today’s guest, Daniel Ameduri, author of “Don’t Save For Retirement”, discusses this with me. Future federal income tax rates will likely be higher. That’s one risk of deferring your tax. The biggest risk of conventional retirement saving is that you sell your todays for tomorrows. Would deferring your compensation ever “pay off” for you? Children & money tips are also discussed. The top role of most financial advisors? To keep the naive person from losing all of their money. In retirement, many retirees pay their financial advisors 25% to 50% of what the retiree withdraws! I explain. Summary: Don’t invest your income for savings; invest your income for more durable income. __________________ Resources mentioned: Future Money Trends: www.FutureMoneyTrends.com/save Mortgage Loans: QRPs: text “QRP” in ALL CAPS to 72000 or: By texting “QRP” to 72000 and opting in, you will receive periodic marketing messages from eQRP Co. Message & data rates may apply. Reply “STOP” to cancel. New Construction Turnkey Property: Find Properties: Best Financial Education: Follow us on Instagram:
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Mon, 2 March 2020
The next recession, and your next 3-10 economic years are predicted by our guest today. He is Brian Beaulieu, CEO of America’s oldest privately-held continuously operated economic research and consulting firm, ITR Economics. Prediction: Interest rates should stay low through 2023. By 2025, they could rise 3% to 3.5%. Inflation should increase in the second half of the 2020s decade. Why? De-globalization. We discuss how long this longest-ever economic expansion will last. Declinism is people’s predisposition to view the past favorably and fear the future. Brian tells us why the economy is likely to accelerate before it falls into decline. Millennials and Gen Zers are large generations. As they age, their affluence increases. Brian tells us that the widening gap between stock valuation and corporate profitability is concerning. I tell you the difference between fiscal policy and monetary policy, and why the 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage might be the most undervalued “asset” today. Of course, your economic future is based more on your individual decisions than the broader economy. If you want an economic forecast for your business or personal investing, visit: ITReconomics.com __________________ Resources mentioned: ITR Economics: https://itreconomics.com/itr-economics-podcasts Book: Prosperity In The Age Of Decline Mortgage Loans: QRPs: text “QRP” in ALL CAPS to 72000 or: By texting “QRP” to 72000 and opting in, you will receive periodic marketing messages from eQRP Co. Message & data rates may apply. Reply “STOP” to cancel. New Construction Turnkey Property: Find Properties: Best Financial Education: Follow us on Instagram: |