Mon, 24 April 2023
Grandpa told me to save money and buy a fixer-upper. What about paying off my mortgage ASAP? Learn why I rejected it all. Changing attitudes towards debt and savings began with high inflation in the 1970s. I compare global home prices and their changes since 2010. Projects for $300K starter homes are going extinct in America. Keith Weinhold and Naresh Vissa describe the upcoming webinar for new-build properties in Florida—single-family homes up to fourplexes. It will offer incentives that are even better than the 2% closing cost cash and two years of free property management. Join next week’s Florida properties live event at: GREwebinars.com Resources mentioned: Show Notes: Sign up for our Florida webinar next week: World Housing Prices Since 2010: https://www.visualcapitalist.com/cp/mapped-global-housing-prices-since-2010/ $300K Starter Homes Going Extinct: https://finance-yahoo-com.cdn.ampproject.org/c/s/finance.yahoo.com/amphtml/news/300-000-starter-home-going-151338810.html Get mortgage loans for investment property: RidgeLendingGroup.com or call 855-74-RIDGE or e-mail: info@RidgeLendingGroup.com Find cash-flowing Jacksonville property at: Will you please leave a review for the show? I’d be grateful. Search “how to leave an Apple Podcasts review” Top Properties & Providers: Best Financial Education: Get our wealth-building newsletter free—text ‘GRE’ to 66866 Our YouTube Channel: www.youtube.com/c/GetRichEducation Follow us on Instagram: Keith’s personal Instagram:
**Speaker 1** (00:00:01) - Welcome to GRE! I'm your host, Keith Weinhold, learn why I rejected my grandpa's advice about debt and real estate. Global home prices have surged not just since 2020, but really for the last decade plus. How does America compare to the world there? Then the real estate market heats up in Florida. All today on Get Rich Education,
**Speaker 2** (00:00:28) - You are listening to the show that has created more financial freedom than nearly any show in the world. This is Get Rich Education.
**Speaker 1** (00:00:51) - Hey, welcome to GRE from England's White Cliffs of Dover to Dover, Delaware, and across 188 nations worldwide. I'm Keith Wein. Hold. This is Get Rich Education. The fact that you want to get lots of good real estate debt, even now that real estate interest rates are off their all time lows from a couple years ago and really most all interest rates. You know, I think to the lay person, it is one of those things that is easy to understand and yet hard to accept to get more debt. Since Americans have near record equity levels. Now, not enough people even ask where that equity came from. I mean, look, you probably don't have a big equity chunk in your home because you paid it down. You have fat equity in your home because it increased in value. Yeah, that's leverage, which was brought into existence by debt. Now lay people can understand that, but yet it's hard to accept that truth.
**Speaker 3** (00:01:59) - What you've just said is one of the most insanely idiotic things I have ever heard. At no point in your rambling, incoherent response, were you even close to anything that could be considered a rational thought. Everyone in this room is now dumber for having listened to it. I award you no points. And may God have mercy on your soul.
**Speaker 1** (00:02:26) - <laugh>. Yeah, yeah, yeah. That's from an old school movie, Billy Madison from 1995. But did you ever get a reaction or a look like that when you shared abundantly minded G R E principles with them? <laugh>, debt free doesn't make sense. The wealthiest people have the most debt. The wealthiest and most powerful nation in the world has the most debt. But some people will still clinging to old ways of thinking. They'll rationalize that debt is bad now because we'll say interest rates aren't as low as they used to be. All right, true. Well, also on the flip side, debt is better when inflation is high because it debases that debt. Inflation and interest rates tend to move in lockstep. So therefore, weather interest rates are high or low. That line of thinking cancels out. And of course, 10 is keep debasing your debt by paying down your principle for you no matter how inflation and interest rates are moving.
**Speaker 1** (00:03:27) - And this all plays into how I was taught to think about money myself growing up, including the influence of my own grandfather. And I would go on to reject my grandpa's advice as a kid. Grandpa told me to save money. You certainly heard that growing up when I was about 20, I was visiting my grandparents on college break. And I still remember when grandpa told me that when it's time for me to buy my first house, I should buy a fixer upper. And though he never told me this next thing, he probably would've encouraged me to pay off your mortgage fast. I bet he would've said that one. Well, he meant well. And though I didn't deliberately spur him, I have gone on to disregard all of my late grandpa's financial guidance. He was a great guy. Grandpa served in a war. He and grandma raised my mom and uncle in a small, simple farmhouse on a 13 acre farm in rural Berks County, Pennsylvania.
**Speaker 1** (00:04:31) - And besides raising livestock and growing crops, he was an electrician by trade. He was an even tempered guy with a wiry frame. And grandpa taught me how to fish for bass in their small farm pond, all with his usual thin smile. And he had a wooden trademark kind of toothpick, pursed between his lips a lot of times. But see, grandpa was born and raised in a pre 1971 world. His concept of money was shaped before Nixon deg the dollar from the gold standard. And as we know, inflation ran rampant after Nixon D pegged the dollar from gold. And then in the 1980s, the Bureau of Labor Statistics, they began to sharply manipulate the way that the consumer price index that had line inflation figure is calculated. They used waiting tricks and other tricks to make the soaring inflation figure appear smaller than reality. Well, I was born and raised in a post 1971 world, so rather than focus on saving money, I want to get out of dollars before they're debased by inflation.
**Speaker 1** (00:05:42) - I never bought a fixer upper home though I truly admire grandpa for it. I didn't have the D iy, an electrical skillset that he did that just didn't come naturally to me. And now admittedly, and at its worst, maybe you can say that I'm part of the reason that Americans are less resourceful, or rather, perhaps American life is better. Or maybe it's that with progress, we're all specialists. Now I'd rather pay more for a home that's already new or renovated This way I spend my time, that zero sum game resource of time. I can spend that on my best and highest use and not texturing drywall and not hanging cabinets and not laying tile. I borrow dollars, not save them on rentals, both tenants and inflation payback the debt. So inflation flips dollars upside down, and grandpa might not believe how iconoclastic I sound. Now, the heresy today, I borrow invest and own assets that create residual cash flow.
**Speaker 1** (00:06:53) - And I would even spend dollars in some cases before they're debased. And along the way, I provide contractors and service providers with work. I employ an ongoing property manager and I provide families with good housing. I doubt the grandpa knew about how debt compounds the power of financial leverage. There's something good to be said for hard work, you know? And my grandfather showed me that on the farm, maintaining the tractor, loading the coal bin, harvesting crops and feeding the chickens. I mean, dude was amazing. He was like the showy otani of skillset diversification. But the world changed over the long term. Today's abundance mindset beats grandpa's grind. I love him for wanting the best for me. Grandpa never wavered on that. Ultimately, really, he equipped me to learn what's best for me and what's best for others. And I know I'm preaching to the choir here because our Instagram stories poll about paid off properties.
**Speaker 1** (00:07:58) - It asked you this question, which one do you prefer to pay off your home A S A P, or to leverage up and don't pay it off? Okay? How do you think that result went? Well, the percent that said pay off your home ASAP P was only 16. And those that said leverage up and don't pay it off is 84%. Yeah, you get it. 84% would rather leverage up and keep borrowing against it rather than pay it off your own home is some of the best debt you can get low rates, fixed rates along payback period, and you can legally kind of reneg and go get a lower rate when they fall as well. And mortgage terms are not quite as good on your rental properties, but they are still advantageous when you go compare that. And you know, really another way to think about it is, if you've got a 500 K home, why would you tie up 500 K in your home?
**Speaker 1** (00:09:05) - You could perhaps have just 100 K tied up in that home or in that rental property. Now, I've talked to you before about how many advanced world economies, foreign nations, they have house prices that vastly exceed prices in the United States. Canada's home prices are almost fully doubled that of us home prices right now. Well, I've got some great stats here. They are sourced by the bank for international settlements on not the international house prices this time, but how those prices have changed since 2010. Okay? So what we're looking at here is 2010 all the way up through Q2 of last year. So 2010 all the way up to the middle of last year. And these are all inflation adjusted. So we're talking about a change in real prices. US property was up 63% in that time, basically about the last 12 years. But the United States is not one of the top 10 countries for home price growth over that period.
**Speaker 1** (00:10:10) - And here those countries are number one for growth is Iceland at 103%. Second is Estonia at 97%. Third for world home price growth is New Zealand at 97% as well. Chill at 95% Turkey, 91% Canada up 90%, the top 10 for home price growth are rounded out by Luxembourg, Hong Kong, Hungary, and Israel. They're all between 80 and 85% inflation adjusted price growth over those about 12 years. So they're all greater than the United States, which again was up just 63% over that long period. That makes American home value seem somewhat cheaper when you think of it through that perspective. America is the envy of the real estate world. It's not just our rule of law and high property ownership rights and strong diverse economy. It's that it's one of the few places in the world where you can lever up this much and still get cash flow and at these terrifically advantaged debt term terms.
**Speaker 1** (00:11:19) - And on the flip side, now we look at the worst nations for price appreciation over the last 12 years. It is a story of price contraction. Prices have dropped in these nations. Okay, so these are the worst five. And let's see if you can guess at what all five of these have in common. Those five worst are Spain, Romania, Italy, Greece and Russia. Russia being the worst at minus 33% inflation adjusted house prices. And yeah, do you know what all five of these nations have in common? All five are losing population and losing the real estate prices with them. All right, well what about the United States? How does our population growth look for the future? What we are just about surpassing the one third of a billion people mark. Now we'll have 336 million people by the end of this year. And over the next 30 years, we're expected to have a population increase from 336 million this year up to 373 million Zen 30 years from now.
**Speaker 1** (00:12:34) - And the proportion from immigration is expected to increase while the proportion from the birth rate wanes. And of course, this contributes to the growing renter society in America because people have a harder time affording the entry level home. And you know, really the entry level home threshold that is now largely considered to be right about $300,000. Yeah, that's about two thirds of the value of today's median priced home and housing market research firms Zda. They tracked home prices and home projects across the country and they found, as you might expect, that the share of new projects for homes under $3,000 is declining rapidly all across the country. From Texas to California to Colorado to Ohio, they are vanishing everywhere. 300 K homes aren't just being diminished in creation, they're just completely gone from a lot of markets. Now this share of projects under 300 K are just completely non-existent.
**Speaker 1** (00:13:46) - Yeah. Now coming in at 0% of the market for Riverside and San Bernardino, California. Now of course coastal California, new 300 K homes, they are long gone. But Riverside and San Bernardino, they're about 50 miles inland. They're less expensive markets. Those properties are gone there in Sacramento, they are gone in Denver, 300 k properties are gone. So the swath of non-existent new build 300 k single family homes is growing and increasingly just nowhere to be found. But we have found a place where these properties do still exist in. It's in an American in migration. Hotbed straight ahead, listen to our in-house chat about this and the overall warming temperature of the real estate market and a cool upcoming Jerry event to tell you about where I'd love to see you there. I'm Keith Reinhold. This is G R e with jwb Real Estate Capital. Jacksonville Real Estate has outperformed the stock market by 44% over the last 20 years. It's proven to be a more stable asset, especially during recessions. Their vertically integrated strategy has led to 79% more home price appreciation compared to the average Jacksonville investor since 2013. J W B is ready to help your money make money, and to make it easy for everyday investors, get started@jwbrealestate.com slash gre. That's jwb real estate.com/gre.
**Speaker 1** (00:15:23) - GRE listeners can't stop talking about their service from Ridge Lending Group and MLS 4 2 0 56. They've provided our tribe with more loans than anyone. They're truly a top lender for beginners and veterans. It's where I go to get my own loans for single family rental property up to four plexes. So start your pre-qualification and you can chat with President Chaley Ridge personally. They'll even deliver your custom plan for growing your real estate portfolio. start@ridgelendinggroup.com.
**Speaker 4** (00:15:56) - This is Rich Dad advisor, Ken McElroy. Listen to Get Rich Education with Keith Wine Hold and don't quit your daydream.
**Speaker 1** (00:16:14) - Hey, well I'd like to welcome in GRE's in-house investment coach in Naresh. Now maybe you've never bought a property out of state before and for almost a year and a half, he has personally one-on-one been helping you with that and with your overall investment strategy. And then he gets you matched up with the right financing and direction in actual property addresses through G rre marketplace. And he does that for you free. Hey Naresh, welcome back outta the show.
**Speaker 6** (00:16:41) - Hey, thanks Keith. It's been a while, but looking forward to talking about this great real estate market.
**Speaker 1** (00:16:46) - You are often dealing directly with the providers and you also know what buyers are looking for too, our audience. So just talk to us about the overall state of the income property market today.
**Speaker 6** (00:16:56) - Yeah, well I want to go back a few months and talk about how the market was a few months ago and how it is today. Because I think you can really talk about how things are going, but when it's compared to something else. So if we go back a few months to let's say November, 2022, so this was pretty recent, we're talking about five months ago or so. Yes. The activity in the real estate buying process, just real estate in general building the activity was slim. There were very few people contacting me. There were, if you look at the publicly listed data, there was definitely a slowdown. If people were to look at their own properties and look at a chart of their property values, they'll see that there was uh, a plummeting of asset values. And that was November, 2022. And what's happened since then, because the Federal Reserve, as you've talked about, has slowly hiked up interest rates and interest rates have gone up, mortgage rates have gone up.
**Speaker 6** (00:17:59) - What happened is sellers, agents, wholesalers, brokers, builders, they didn't wanna see a crash. And what they did was they started honing up some of their own capital to incentivize buyers to make up for that higher interest rate. So now we fast forward from November where there was no activity. I mean literally we had zero activity at G R E, not even a single inquiry on a property. So we've gone from that to providers providing incentives like, Hey, the price is negotiable. This is just sticker price. Let's negotiate like we're at a car dealership to free property management for one year or even two years, or free home insurance for one year or two years or 2% closing cost credits or X amount of X thousand dollars off closing costs. The incentives go on and on and on. These were not available in 2022 because we saw a super hot real estate market with a ton of buyers all of a sudden turn into a dead real estate with no buyers.
**Speaker 6** (00:19:11) - So people who are concerned with the state of the real estate market right now, they might say, oh, you know, the interest rates are so high, these incentives cut down on that interest rate. So your lender may quote you for a 25% down payment. And that's the other thing, because of the market we're in, 25% is the best you're gonna get paying no points. If you pay 20% down, now you're gonna have to pay points to buy down that rate and, and those points don't go towards your equity, you're just buying down the rate. So anyway, with that being said, for 25% down with these incentives, we're now looking at the mid to high five. So five and a five to 5.9% interest rate, which is, I mean we're at 20 18, 20 19 levels at that point. So the state of the real estate market is still very strong.
**Speaker 6** (00:20:03) - It's healthy. There's a lot of activity now with buyers, with investors, home builders. We work with a ton of builders. They're essentially trying to sell off all the builds that they were permitted for three years ago, two years ago. So builders aren't building as much as they were like after the lockdowns were lifted in 2020 and they started building like crazy. And this has again, increased the demand of housing where they built a lot and now they're not building, they're just looking to sell what they currently have that hasn't been sold yet. So with an influx of people, we're seeing a baby boom. We have politicians talking about a bigger baby boom within the coming years and more immigration that only increases a demand for housing. So yes, right now is still an excellent, excellent time to buy. November of last year, not so much. But right now, yes,
**Speaker 1** (00:20:57) - It's a paradox with this nationwide dearth of housing supply and knowing that that problem is even more chronic in the entry level space that make the best rentals. Considering those factors, you would think that builders and providers wouldn't need to offer any incentive at all. But they have been recently. Some of them are continuing because of what's gone on in the mortgage market and with mortgage rates. So really that's nationally. And then talk to us about the geographies that we work in that tend to be in the Southeast and Midwest and in the inland northeast.
**Speaker 6** (00:21:35) - Yeah. Well first off, I, I wanna say that we work with a ton. Not all of our partners or providers are offering incentives, but I would say we just happen to work with a majority of them. So if you're listening and you're like, huh, he said a rent guarantee or a two years free property management or free closing costs, if these strike a fancy, then definitely reach out to me because I can share with you the best properties offering such and senates. And these are older properties, these are new construction. There are no more pre-construction that we're dealing with. Cuz like I said, pre-construction is, so two years ago, three years ago, those pre-construction properties are now available for sale and for closing within 30 days. So reach out to me, NAI, and A R E S h I get rich education.com if these interests you.
**Speaker 6** (00:22:28) - Now, as far as who we work with, like who's offering such great deals, what markets we, Keith are still seeing, I would identify two particular markets in southeast South, if you wanna say the south eastern part of the United States. So number one, all of Florida, Florida is still the hottest market that we're dealing with. Our providers are all offering big incentives and we're seeing homes rented really quickly because as you've covered, Florida has become a hotspot along with Texas as a destination over the past three years. And that continues to be the trend. In fact, Ocala, Florida, which we have tons of properties available in Ocala, Florida, brand new constructions, even quads, many of our buyers are so hungry for quads because it's the closest thing to multi-family. And we finally have quads available in a market like Jacksonville, Florida, Ocala, Florida, San Antonio, Texas.
**Speaker 6** (00:23:29) - We have a quad available there. That's a really hot market as well. But I want to bring up Ocala, Florida because U-Haul, the famous trucking transportation company U-Haul has a very good pulse on where people are moving, where their rentals are being rented, right? And the number one destination they found for the year 2022 was Ocala, Florida. So that's an area, it's the world has equestrian headquarters, the largest retirement community in the world is a half an hour away from there. So you have a ton of people servicing these very wealthy elderly people to 55 and up community. So a lot of healthcare, a lot of service industry. You have a lot of it jobs, engineering jobs, because Gainesville, which is home to the University of Florida is only 40 minutes away. And Ocala is more affordable than living in that retirement community is called the Villages very pricey because it's like its own world over there.
**Speaker 6** (00:24:32) - I've been there a couple of times. And then Gainesville also is quite pricey with the university and with the tech community there. So Ocala has become the next biggest city that's not completely rural farmland that has any sense of modernity. And so yes, I'm identifying all of Florida, specifically Ocala, but then also Memphis, Tennessee for older rehabbed properties, both Memphis, Tennessee and Little Rock, Arkansas. We're seeing a lot of activity there because they are lower priced entry level homes. They're rehab properties, fully rehab, turnkey, gutted. So these are properties anywhere from a hundred to $150,000 in Memphis and about 120 to 170,000 in Little Rock. So we work with a provider there who has a lot of inventory and they are also offering some pretty incredible incentives that our other partners in Memphis are not offering. That includes two years closing cost credit. That includes free property management for two years. And it also includes a mortgage guarantee. So if they're not able to rent out your property, they will pay your mortgage for you until they find a tenant who will uh, tenant that property.
**Speaker 1** (00:25:51) - Ah, somewhat different than the rent guarantee that sometimes we hear about where they will pay the market rent for you if you don't have a tenant in the property, but it's paying your mortgage for you.
**Speaker 6** (00:26:00) - Exactly. So you just send them your mortgage bill and, and they will pay it. But I will say the reason why they offer this is because they're putting their money where their mouth is. They're so confident that they will, that both Little Rock and Memphis, just like Florida, have become very strong places for people to move to because they're affordable. And you want to be buying real estate in affordable places because A, it's affordable for you and B, it's gonna be affordable for your tenants, which means you're gonna have a greater tenant pool to fill that property.
**Speaker 1** (00:26:31) - Yeah, so Memphis and Little Rock, some of the most affordably priced cash flowing markets in the nation. And yes, these prices, 100 to 150 K for you Californians and New Jerseyans and New Yorkers. We're not talking about the down payment, we're talking about the total purchase price of a home in a safe neighborhood that can attract a respectable tenant in places like Memphis and Little Rock. And then when it comes to Texas and Florida, you mentioned U-Haul, they put out annual reports where they actually give some really good migration data to the real estate market, but with all the in migration to places like Florida and Texas and the rest, sometimes I wonder how does U-Haul handle, like all their trucks end up in Jacksonville after a few months or all their trucks end up in a place like Ocala or Central Florida where so many people are moving. It's just interesting to think about what they do with that problem. They need to get all their trucks back out of places like that after all of the in migration. And because Florida, it really is so predictable that the in migration will continue. It's been such a long trend it picked up during the health crisis and we have an upcoming webinar in Florida. Tell us about that.
**Speaker 6** (00:27:44) - Yeah, well this is with one of our hottest Florida providers. They've been hot because of a special, you've mentioned it on your podcast, you've mentioned it in your newsletter. I've mentioned it in my communications with students and clients. They had a two plus two program of two years free property management plus 2% closing costs. But we're doing a webinar with them next week. It's going to be next Tuesday evening. If you go to g r e webinars.com, g r e webinars.com, you can find out about the webinar and also register for it. They've gotten rid of that two plus two program because they are unveiling a brand new promotion, a brand new program that is even better than the two plus two. So if you missed out on the two plus two, we're right now in this two and a half week period where there's no promotion and you have to pay retail price.
**Speaker 6** (00:28:44) - But if you stick through it, join us on the webinar next week. They are, like I said, they'll be announcing a brand new promotion that is the two plus two was an incredible, incredible program. I think this is way better than even the two plus two. So this is certainly exciting. They're gonna be coming on the webinar talking about Ocala like we just talked about. They have built the quads in Ocala that we have available. They've built duplexes, single families, and not just in Ocala but all around Florida. And they are offering incentives and discounts to sell these properties. So highly recommend people. Check out G r e webinars.com to register for that webinar next Tuesday evening.
**Speaker 1** (00:29:29) - All right. And for our group attendees on our webinar there, you're gonna have incentives for these new Build Florida properties, oftentimes single family homes up to four plexes and larger that are even better than the 2% closing cost cash at the table for you. And even better than that two years free property management. They are gonna roll that out to you at the webinar next week that you want to be sure to attend. We'd really like to see you there. That is our live event on Tuesday, May 2nd at 8:30 PM Eastern, 5:30 PM Pacific. And the rest is starring in that one. It is completely free for you to attend and the benefit of you attending it in person is it is live. And you'll have a chance to ask questions and maybe we have another attendee that asks a question that you didn't think about asking. That's a really good question. So you can kind of crowdsource all the questions and ask a question yourself there at the live event@grewebinars.com. Do you have any last thoughts, Lorre?
**Speaker 6** (00:30:33) - Well, I will say this, one of the best parts about the webinar for serious buyers who are looking for that next deal is our provider will be providing the best deals they have available. So they're coming with two to three of their best deals. So this isn't one of those things where it's like, oh, you know, NAIA is just gonna send me an email after and I'll see everything. Or I'll watch the webinar replay. Yes, there will be a webinar replay, but the chances of those two deals being sold out during the webinar are extremely high because of the incentives and the deals that the provider is providing. So I highly recommend try to make it live. You want to get in on these deals. Uh, if you miss the webinar, hey, not to worry, we're going to have the replay. Maybe, uh, they'll have some other properties that are comparable, available for sale too. But you wanna be there live, get your questions out of the way and move quickly. Because our last webinar that we did, Keith for Baltimore, it was probably our best webinar yet. And we moved properties, we moved properties very quickly live on air. So that's why I just wanna let our listeners know, hey, things are really picking up in the real estate market. Again, things are picking up at G R E, so you don't wanna be left behind.
**Speaker 1** (00:31:51) - These are attractive incentives for path of Progress Florida, usually new build properties for you next week. Again, at G R E webinars.com. This is exciting stuff. Thanks for sharing this with us and the rest.
**Speaker 6** (00:32:05) - Thank you, Keith. Always a pleasure.
**Speaker 1** (00:32:12) - Yeah, well, 25% down in buying your mortgage rate down into the fives creates some cash flow. But as you'll see a next week's live virtual event, it is going to get better than that purchase prices on these brand new single family homes. They're still below 300 k, still in the 200 s in some cases. Yes. These are the property types that are quickly vanishing. Naresh can find both the good deals for you with the national providers that are actually giving incentives like the ones that we talked about. And this is all despite the fact that the product that you're buying is in really short supply sets for income properties, single family rentals, up to four plexes in Jacksonville and Ocala and elsewhere in Florida. And now if you wanna get ahold of Naresh for the latest on GRE Marketplace Nationwide Properties and who has the best incentives, you can go to G rre marketplace.com/coach and you can get free direction and coaching.
**Speaker 1** (00:33:17) - He would like to see you for next week's live event, though, besides just getting a solid fundamental education on what makes a durable income property market, Naresh and the Florida provider are gonna share with us just for webinar attendees, those even better than two and two in incentives for you. The incentives on the webinar. Yes sir. Even better than the 2% of your closing costs paid to you in cash and two years of free property management. Again, this is next Tuesday. It's May 2nd at 8:30 PM Eastern, 5:30 PM Pacific Naresh Stars. In this one. It is free to attend, get your questions answered, and get access to properties should you so choose. Be sure to sign up now while it's on your mind@grewebinars.com. I'm your host, Keith Wein. Hold. Don't quit your daydream.
**Speaker 0** (00:34:15) - Nothing
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**Speaker 1** (00:34:44) - The preceding program was brought to you by your home for Wealth building. Get rich education.com. |
Mon, 17 April 2023
Keith Weinhold answers listener questions about real estate investing. He advises listeners on how many properties they need to own to become a millionaire, how to invest $40,000 to reach a $100,000 down payment for a rental property, and how to find the best future real estate markets. Keith emphasizes the importance of positive cash flow, avoiding over-leveraging, and owning properties in multiple job growth markets and states. He also discusses the potential for hyperinflation and the benefits of owning real assets to combat inflation. Keith encourages listeners to leave a rating and review for the podcast and consult with professionals for individualized advice. **Taylor's question [00:01:07]** How many properties must I own to become a millionaire? Keith explains that it depends on the profitability of the properties, how much they go up in value, and how much rent is charged. **Mitrel's question [00:05:04]** Should I invest my $40,000 in the stock market to reach my $100,000 down payment goal for a rental property? Keith advises on risk tolerance and suggests alternative options such as I bonds. **Kevin's question [00:09:08]** What are the forward-looking indicators to find the best future real estate markets? Keith talks about the prospect of hyperinflation and provides insights on finding the best real estate markets. **Forward Looking Indicators for Real Estate Markets [00:09:16]** Keith answers Kevin's question about selecting MSAs with forward-looking indicators, including population growth, employment, and upcoming government infrastructure projects. **Sponsor Ads [00:15:45]** Keith thanks Ridge Lending Group, JWB Real Estate Capital, and Mid-South Home Buyers for sponsoring the show. **House Hacking in Southern California [00:18:03]** Keith advises Connor on whether to invest in an out-of-state rental or house hack in Southern California, considering high real estate prices, tax rates, and tenant protection laws. **Real Estate Financing Options [00:19:03]** Keith discusses financing options for single-family homes and fourplexes, including FHA and VA loans, and the advantages and disadvantages of house hacking in Southern California versus investing out-of-state. **Hyperinflation and the US Economy [00:21:40]** Keith addresses a listener's question about the possibility of hyperinflation in the US economy, defining hyperinflation and discussing the factors that contribute to it, including a nation's debt and foreign demand for its currency. **Leverage in Real Estate Investing [00:25:00]** Keith answers a listener's question about being over-leveraged in real estate investing, explaining the risks of taking on too much debt and emphasizing the importance of buying properties that are cash flow positive. **Real Estate Investing Strategies [00:28:00]** Keith explains how to avoid over-leveraging and how to project positive cash flow from day one. **Benefits of High Leverage [00:29:09]** Keith explains how high leverage can help you build wealth faster and why it's best to finance your properties. **Encouragement to Leave a Podcast Review [00:30:07]** Keith encourages listeners to leave a podcast review and explains how it helps the show reach more people. **Disclaimer [00:31:32]** A disclaimer is given that nothing on the show should be considered specific personal or professional advice. Resources mentioned: Show Notes: I-Bonds: https://www.treasurydirect.gov/savings-bonds/i-bonds/ Get mortgage loans for investment property: RidgeLendingGroup.com or call 855-74-RIDGE or e-mail: info@RidgeLendingGroup.com Find cash-flowing Jacksonville property at: Will you please leave a review for the show? I’d be grateful. Search “how to leave an Apple Podcasts review” Top Properties & Providers: Best Financial Education: Get our wealth-building newsletter free—text ‘GRE’ to 66866 Our YouTube Channel: www.youtube.com/c/GetRichEducation Follow us on Instagram: Keith’s personal Instagram:
Welcome to GRE! I’m your host, Keith Weinhold. I answer your listener questions today.
A 12-year-old listener asks, how many properties must I own to become a millionaire? Another asks, “Should my first property be a house hack or an out-of-state rental”?
One question is about the imminent prospect of HYPERinflation.
Also, “What are FORWARD-looking indicators to find the best future RE markets?” Those questions and more questions all answered, today, on Get Rich Education! ___________
Hey, welcome in to GRE. I’m your host and Founder, in fact, of this very show… and all Get Rich Education platforms, a 20-year REI and Active Member of the Forbes Real Estate Council. My name is Keith Weinhold. Ya probably know that by now.
This is Episode 445 of Get Rich Education.
When I do these listener question episodes, I generally begin with some of the more basic questions.
Today’s first question comes from Taylor in Wooster, Ohio. Taylor is age 12 and he simply asks:
How many properties must I own to become a millionaire?
Well, thanks for that, Taylor. I don’t often get questions from a 12-year-old.
I love that you’re listening and the fact that you ARE greatly increases the chances of you building wealth when you’re an adult, yet young enough to enjoy it.
Like a lot of questions in real estate, the answer to how many properties you must own to become a millionaire “depends”.
It depends on how profitable your properties are - how much they go up in value and how much you’re getting from the rents that you charge the tenants, how long you do a good job of keeping them as tenants, as well as how capable you are of controlling your property’s expenses.
So, you could own as little as just ONE property and be a millionaire, Taylor.
Owning MORE properties is better than owning fewer properties. That way, if you have one that isn’t profitable, you’ll have profits from your others.
And you can own more properties when you can use part of your OWN money & part the bank’s money… in owning the property.
Now, Taylor, if you have one million dollars, say, you had a million bucks in stacks stuffed in your closet, you need to understand that that is not enough.
You’re 12 years old now. You might live another 80 years. Then you’d need that million to last you 80 years.
Even a 50-year-old with a million dollar stack of dollars bills in their closet would not have enough money to live on for the rest of their life.
You might need closer to 10 million dollars. That’s called a decamillionaire. So think about setting your net worth target higher. Think, “How can I be a decamillionaire?”
But actually, you don’t just want to think about the height of your stack of dollar bills reaching any certain number of millions ONLY. It matters. But what matters more is how fast your stacks are GROWING.
That’s called cash flow. If your stacks are growing at a rate every year that exceeds all of your expenses, you are financially-free. That’s why it beats being debt-free.
Another thing, Taylor, I know that your hometown of Wooster, Ohio is between Columbus and Akron so - though I’m not familiar with Wooster - but I do know its the county seat of Wayne County -
…you do tend to have markets nearby that can create CF really well - that’s that ability to GROW your cash stacks, hopefully to a height of 10 million someday.
Thanks for your question, Taylor.
You know, it warms my heart to know that kids listen to the show. I remember shortly after launching the show in 2014 that a Dad & son from New Jersey wrote in and told us that they look forward to listening to the show together every week.
I like to do that family-friendly show, from Day 1. A clean lyrics show since inception.
I like to keep it classy. I like to make that show that would make my late Grandma Weinhold proud - though I don’t think she ever knew how to listen to this show.
That’s part of my brand… and it warms my heart to see children in the audience. ______________
The next question comes from Mitrel. I don’t know where Mitrel is from, because some questions come in on our YouTube Channel, but he says…
I have a good job and $40,000 in savings, expect an upcoming BOOM in real estate and need $100,000 for a down payment.
Does it make sense to gamble my $40K in the high risk stock market to get up to the $100K sooner and capitalize on the RE purchase?
If I lose the $40K, I’ll recover it in time with my job anyway over time.
If I win & get it to $100K, I’ll have my income property and be off to the races with leverage and Real Estate Pays 5 Ways.
If I simply tried to preserve the $40K in a savings account, I’d lose to inflation anyway.
That’s his question. Alright, Mitrel. You’ve got $40K, want to get to $100K for your down payment on some rental property.
Now, we have properties at GRE Marketplace where $30 or $35K is enough to get started… but with your $100K down payment goal, I sense that you might have a specific purchase in mind.
Of course, it’s about getting a 20-25% down payment + 4% CCs - as a percent of your purchase price - and you’ll want to hold some reserves.
Well, to get your cash stash from $40K up to $100K, it has to do with your risk tolerance.
It sounds like you’re open to risk with putting it in the stock market short-term to try to reach your goal faster.
So, yeah. You would probably want to do that OUTSIDE of a retirement account since they generally have early withdrawal penalties.
In a savings account, yes, you’re aware that with true inflation, that would just debase your savings’ purchasing power.
If you’re open to risk, I guess one could get in & out of crypto at just the right time - if you do that, I’d choose bitcoin.
But you know, whether you go with risky stocks or risky bitcoin, the problem with that is that you have to get your timing right twice.
Ideally, whether it’s a Russell 2000 Index Fund or Apple Stock or Ethereum, you want to buy close to a near-term low and then sell close to a near-term high.
That is more difficult to do than it sounds, and it’s just one reason that stock, ETF, and mutual fund investors don’t build wealth.
One other thing I’ll mention as you’re trying to patch together your first RE down payment is I-bonds. They currently pay a guaranteed 7%.
The way they work is that the interest rate they pay you is the CPI Inflation rate plus a fixed rate on top of that.
You can get I-bonds at TreasuryDirect.gov
But there is a $10,000 annual limit that you can put into I-bonds.
Another disadvantage is that I bonds can't be purchased and held in a traditional or Roth IRA, Mitrel. The I- bonds have to be held in a taxable account.
But that might work for you in this case, Mitrel, since it’s a shorter-term hold, hopefully it’s shorter-term anyway, until you’ve built up your $100K cash to get your RE and get off to the races, hopefully getting paid 5 ways.
Another disadvantage of I bonds is there is an interest penalty if they’re redeemed for cash in the first five years. They knock off 3 months of your earned interest.
I hope that you found at last one insight on those options that helps you out, Mitrel. ________________
The next question comes from Kevin. He asked this one quite a while ago.
[Listener question played]
3) What are the forward-looking indicators to select MSAs? He typically looks at population growth and employment.
That is a rather astute question, Kevin. Yes, you’re looking at some of the right measures for the tide that floats a RE market up.
First, we want to think about landlord-friendly states. Yes, the MW & South has a preponderance of them. But there are some outliers. You’ll also find pretty favorable eviction processes for LLs in PA, TX and AZ.
When it comes to forward-looking RE indicators and their sources, first, let me give you two resources that most everyone knows about, then we’ll drill deeper. The NAR publishes forecasts for home sales, prices, and other market trends. Their reports give you future RE market insight at both the national and local level. Zillow offers forecasts too on the housing market, including home values, rents, and other market indicators. Now, one indicator and one place that a lot of people don’t know where to look, Kevin, is your ability to discover upcoming government infrastructure programs. Think about learning where the next new highway intersection or highway interchange will be built. Or perhaps it’s a new seaport expansion project or a new bridge that is going to be built in 5 years. There are a lot of places where you can find out that information ahead of time, and unlike stock investing, it’s completely legal - totally alright - to learn about this ahead of time. Get a heads up on where the next bridge is going to be built and how that can make nearby property values rise - that’s not considered illegal insider information. You can check the websites of government agencies responsible for upcoming infrastructure development in your target state or region. That area’s, say, Department Of Transportation makes this public so that contractors can engage in the bidding process for major infrastructure projects. These are known as government PROCUREMENT websites. For example, in Illinois, that’s under an Illinois.gov website. Those sources can be kinda wonky & dry, but putting in the work over there can help you see the future. Now, major news outlets, and just regular, old school, legacy media television channels like good ol’ WPHL in Philadelphia or KMSP Minneapolis or anywhere, they often report on upcoming projects and government initiatives, like an airport expansion. Now, if you happen to LIVE in an investor-advantaged area, Kevin, well and you do, Dayton, Ohio. Joining an “in real life” industry association that focuses on infrastructure development can really give you direction & foresight and you’ll grow your network too. That’ll give you access to upcoming projects - as will attending public meetings like town hall meetings. And then finally, the US Census Bureau and other sources make all kinds of population projections. That helps you see the future.
And hey, you might as well use the Census’ resources since your tax dollars are paying for it.
And those industry associations and public meetings often use & apply those population projections to upcoming major projects.
So, there’s more, but that’s a good bit there. I hope that helps you, Kevin.
Today, I am bringing you the show from Anchorage, Alaska.
Next week, it’ll be from Las Vegas, Nevada.
And in two weeks, I’ll be bringing you the show from Phoenix, Arizona.
So, Anchorage, Las Vegas, and Phoenix. That is the largest city in the 49th, 36th, and 48th states admitted to the union respectively.
Only a remorseless geography nerd like me would break it down that way, wouldn’t I?
Yes, we’ll be constructing makeshift, mobile GRE recording studios coming up.
If you’ve got a question that you’d like me to answer, go to GetRichEducation.com/Contact. That’s where you can either write a message, or leave a voice message listener question - like Kevin did.
I answer more of your listener questions next. I’m KW. You’re listening to Episode 445 of Get Rich Education. ____________
Welcome back to Get Rich Education. I’m your host, Keith Weinhold, grateful to have you here.
Before we return to your listener questions… thanks to this week’s sponsors. They support us so, please, consider supporting them.
That is Ridge Lending Group. Consider YOUR next mortgage loan for income property there and see the difference that a lender that works specifically with investors like you… can make.
They serve almost all 50 states. That’s President Caeli Ridge & all the good-looking people over there at RidgeLendingGroup.com
Then there’s JWB Real Estate Capital. Income property specialists that provide you with the actual investor-advantaged real estate that you can buy in bustling, fast-growing Jacksonville. That’s all-around good guy Gregg Cohen & the team at JWB. They always have good hair days over there.
They really make it easy for you. Find your next cash flow property at JWBRealEstate.com/GRE
Finally, there’s Mid South Home Buyers, providing you some of the best rent ratios in the entire South in Memphis and Little Rock.
They’ve got the service that you’ve been raving about for years now.
That’s Terry Kerr, Liz Brody and all the fine peeps over there at MidSouth that shake your hand, look you in the eye, have a symmetrical smile, and even regularly recite your first name mid-sentence for ya. (Ha!)
Get started at MidSouthHomeBuyers.com
I have been inside the physical offices of all 3 of those sponsors that I just mentioned.
If your company is interested in advertising on GRE, let us know. We’d like to check you out first. Just like listener questions, you can also indicate that on the same page. Let us know at GetRichEducation.com/Contact You’ll see the “Advertising Inquiry” area there.
Conner asked me a question. “Keith, absolutely love your videos. I live in expensive Southern California (Orange County). Would you recommend my first property be a primary that I house hack or invest in an out-of-state rental?” Thanks, Connor.
OK, Connor. Well, there’s a lot to consider.
Let’s look at the Socal househack.
As you’re surely already aware, real estate prices and tax rates are both very high in California.
California also has a Tenant Protection Act enacted in 2019 that puts strict eviction laws into place. You might have rent control there too.
Now, as a SoCal househacker, that could, of course, take the form of buying one big SFH where you live in one of the rooms and rent out the other rooms.
The younger you are, the more likely it is that you’re tolerant of living with roommates. If you want to stay alone or with your spouse or whatever & want privacy, then you’ll househack a duplex, triplex, or fourplex.
Any one of those, SFH up to 4-plex, you can use an FHA loan on and pay just 3.5% down, or VA loan if you have VA benefits and pay 0% down. With either of those low down payment programs, you must live ON-SITE, usually for at least a year.
FHA recently approved 40-year mortgage loans and they will roll out next month. Yes!
In Orange County, CA, with really high prices, it might take a fixer-upper type home to make it affordable. If you aren’t handy, that’s a disadvantage on the house hack.
Socal is simply one of the most DISadvantaged places in the nation for long-term rental property, though there are still ways to make it work.
Then, if you go out of state, you can make it really passive. It won’t be a more active business like it would there for ya in Orange County.
Now, the downside of buying an out-of-state rental, like through GRE Marketplace, is that it’s going to take a 20 to 25% down payment.
But you can still find respectable properties in safe neighborhoods, in say, Memphis for as little as $100K to $120K. That means you might not have to come out of pocket for much more than you would a SoCal rental with it’s lower PERCENT down payment.
And, of course, the big advantages of the out-of-state rental are low purchase prices, high rents, advantageous LL-tenant law, your property is already renovated or brand new, and it is turnkey PMed if you so choose.
That’s exactly why a lot of people are choosing out-of-state properties at GREMarketplace.
Those are some of the major trade-offs, Connor. Thanks for the question.
The next question comes from Jesse in Reno, Nevada.
“With high inflation for two years and cyclical trends entrenched, more nations making foreign trade deals outside of the dollar, and the Treasury printing dollars like mad, I cannot believe the price for a shopping cart full of groceries at Safeway any more. Are we headed for a hyperinflationary period within the next decade?”
Well, that’s an interesting question, Jesse. Inflation is an awful malady that disproportionately affects the lower classes more than the upper classes.
But do I believe that there’s any significant chance of hyperinflation in the next decade, Jesse? Let me answer that.
Now, first of all, a lot of people - not necessarily you, Jesse - but a lot of people throw around the term “hyperinflation” without really knowing what it means at all.
A consensus of economists define HYPERinflation as an inflation rate of 50% or more every month. Yes, month.
With compounding, that would be inflation of more than 600% per year, not the… closer to 6% CPI inflation that we’ve had lately.
We could very well have longer-term waves of RECURRING inflation.
In America, our debt-to-GDP ratio is high. It’s about 120% right now. Back in 1990, it was just 55%.
Now our debt-to-GDP ratio also hit 120% back in the 1940s, but that was as a result of us having to pay for WWII. And the productivity of the 1950s quickly brought the ratio down.
Here’s the problem. Today’s 120% is not due to war; it’s due to all these politicians’ various accumulated promises over time.
That includes CONTINUOUS military spending.
And you know, historically, every fiat currency ends with the END of that currency. Every single one goes to die. The British pound is the world’s OLDEST currency in use today.
But to get hyperinflation, it generally takes two key factors:
First, a nation needs to have debts denominated in a currency that that nation can’t print.
Now, for emerging markets, its often dollar-based debt that they have and those nations can’t print dollars.
100 years ago, Weimar Germany had gold-based war reparations. That was their problem.
You cannot print gold, so they printed MASSIVE amounts of their currency. In more modern times, Venezuela and Zimbabwe experienced hyperinflation.
The second key reason hyperinflation occurs is when there’s no foreign demand for your currency… so you hyperinflate it.
So, to create hyperinflation, it takes a tremendous amount of printing… plus no demand for that currency.
The US still has foreign demand for our dollar and there’s a lot of debt denominated in the dollar globally. That represents demand for it.
Since the US can print its own currency, we’re not very likely to default on our total of $32T debt at all.
We’re motivated to let inflation keep running, at whatever fluctuating rate, Jesse.
So to answer your question, Jesse, no. No hyperinflation in the US in the next decade.
And as far as the prolonged elevated inflation that we’re having, as a listener, I think you know how to beat that by now. Own real assets. If you own a house, have a 30-year mortgage. Don’t have it “paid off”. You need a mortgage to benefit most. Thanks for the question, Jesse.
Our last question comes from Zack in Claremore, Oklahoma. Zack asks:
Keith, is there such a thing as being “OVER leveraged?” Would you finance everything you can as long as you can create arbitrage?
Great question, Zack. The short answer is, “Yes, I would. I would finance everything up as much as I could without being overleveraged.”
Now, what “overleveraged” means IN GENERAL - out in the larger business world is that you’ve borrowed too much money in relation to your ability to pay it back.
In real estate, being overleveraged means that you take on so much debt that you can’t make your monthly payments on your principal, interest, and operating expenses.
As long as my properties are cash flow positive, even by a little margin, I have found no limit as to how much I would finance, Zack.
Let me use an example. Say that you buy a rental duplex with $4,000 of monthly rent income. Your mortgage and all of your long-term operating expenses are $5,000, leaving you with a NEGATIVE cash flow hole of $1,000 every month.
A $1,000 per month hole is a $12,000 each year hole that you’ve dug.
If you’re financially precarious elsewhere, that can be a difficult hole to fill in and you could descend into delinquency when you miss your first payment, then deeper into foreclosure when you’re several months behind, then the bank takes over your property.
You lose your property, lose your credit score, and lose the ability to get new loans for years. You were overleveraged.
You’ve borrowed too much money in relation to your ability to pay it back since your rent income was $4,000 and expenses were $5,000.
Well, when you buy right, that’s not likely to happen. First of all, your mortgage loan underwriter is going to check that you have enough income and enough reserves to meet their qualification standards before you can get the mortgage in the first place.
That’s a check against becoming overleveraged, yet things could still go wrong.
For one thing, with FHA loans, your debt-to-income ratio can be an eye-popping maximum of 57% and you can still qualify for the loan.
But you’re usually going to be buying your out-of-state rental property with a CONVENTIONAL loan.
Now, INSTEAD of becoming overleveraged, you would buy in the opposite scenario, projecting positive cash flow from day one.
On your duplex instead, if you had just $4,200 of rent income and $4,000 of expenses, you’ve got just $200 of cash flow, but that is a cushion.
And like I’ve described on previous episodes, historically your rent income rises faster than your expenses since your mortgage P & I payment stays fixed.
That’s why, over time, you often widen that delta from +$200 cash flow so that it just keeps widening to a greater & greater cushion.
So, to review, you’re unlikely to find yourself overleveraged if your income exceeds your expenses on day 1, when you have predominantly FIXED RATE LOANS…
… and then another measure of protection is when you own properties in multiple job growth markets - in multiple STATES even - you’re better protected against any changes in the law or regulations or changes in that region’s economy or even any detrimental disruption to your PM in each of your chosen investment areas.
I dislike overleverage. But I do like HIGH leverage. Because leverage makes compound interest feel really slow.
It is best to FINANCE your properties, even though mortgage rates aren’t as low as they were two years ago.
Look at it this way. With 20% down, you could buy five financed properties instead of one all-cash. Over time, five properties appreciating will build you more wealth than one appreciating.
If the properties don’t cash flow with 20% down, then get three with 33% down on each. That’ll accelerate your wealth-building & help you control the mortgage.
Then… if rates go down, you can still refinance. If rates don’t go down, you’ll be glad that you bought multiple properties instead of one.
Thanks for the question, Zack.
I hope you enjoyed listener questions today. I hadn’t done them for a while. If you did, please, go ahead and tell a friend about the show.
Also, if you’ve ever wanted to tell me what you think about the show… there’s a great way for you to do that & I will see it and read it myself.
You know, I recently learned that in Apple Podcasts Germany, we only have 3 podcast reviews in that entire nation on that platform.
And that prompted me to ask you - whatever nation you're in, to please, you don’t have to, but if you’d be so kind, leave a podcast review.
When you do that, it not only helps our show reach more people, but, I do actually read your review of the show, so I get that feedback.
So if you like what I’m doing here, I’d be grateful if you went ahead, and whatever your podcast platform is…
…Google “how to leave an Apple podcasts review” or “how to leave a Spotify review” and go ahead an do that - leave a rating & review for the Get Rich Education podcast and I’d be grateful.
I hope you found one or more listener questions today that really relate to you or your interests, or YOUR unlimited wealth-building potential. Thanks in advance for telling a friend about the show, and for your rating & review.
Until next week, I’m your host, Keith Weinhold. Don’t Quit Your Daydream.
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Mon, 10 April 2023
In this podcast episode, Keith Weinhold discusses the benefits of investing in stable property markets, the risks and benefits of taking out a second mortgage on a property, and the potential impact of remote work on the real estate market. Weinhold also touches on the performance of stocks and other asset classes in the first quarter of the year, highlighting the drawbacks of savings accounts, CDs, and money market funds, and suggesting that investing in real estate can be a better option. Overall, Weinhold emphasizes the importance of investing in stable markets with high rent ratios and strong landlord tenant laws. **Real Estate Prices [00:03:39]** Discussion of the current and future direction of real estate prices, with a recap of the benefits of investing in real estate. **Tapping Equity [00:04:50]** Explanation of the problem with tapping equity and the risks of taking out a second mortgage on a property. **Second Mortgage [00:05:43]** Explanation of how to add a second mortgage onto a property and access cash without refinancing the entire loan, with details on the 80% combined loan value ratio. **Risks of Second Mortgage [00:07:49]** Discussion of the risks of taking out a second mortgage, including interest rate fluctuations and the potential pitfall of borrowing short to go long. **Second Mortgage Benefits and Risks [00:09:51]** Discussion of the benefits and risks of taking out a second mortgage on a property for investment purposes. **Current Direction of Home Prices [00:12:09]** Analysis of the current direction of home prices in the resale market, including a survey of resale agents and national existing home prices. **Regional Real Estate Market Performance [00:18:00]** Discussion of the stability of regional real estate markets, with a focus on the southeast and midwest, and the importance of stable prices, high rent ratios, and strong landlord tenant laws. **WFH Trends and Regional Real Estate Markets [00:20:24]** Analysis of the potential impact of work from home trends on regional real estate markets, including an increase in flexible job postings in major cities. **Virtual Real Estate Investing [00:25:02]** Discussion of the recent failures of metaverse projects and the risks of virtual real estate investing. **Factors Affecting National Home Prices [00:26:15]** Explanation of the headwinds and tailwinds affecting national home prices in 2021, including bank failures, job loss recession, labor and supply inflation, spring home buyer demand, and the supply crash. **Mortgage Rates [00:30:20]** Explanation of the difficulty in predicting mortgage rates and the lack of forecast for their direction. **Various Asset Classes Performance [00:32:17]** Discussion of the performance of different asset classes in Q1 of the year, including precious metals, savings accounts, and real estate. **Benefits of Investing in Real Estate [00:35:14]** Real estate investing as a way to beat inflation and transfer prosperity from dollars to property, with the added benefit of control and potential for five ways of profit. **Reasons to Invest in Residential Real Estate [00:36:27]** Advantages of investing in new or renovated residential real estate, including low maintenance expenses and potential for no capex expenses during ownership. **Expectations for Real Estate Market [00:37:33]** Expectations for the real estate market in the next five years, with a caution that the historically high price run-up may not be repeated. Resources mentioned: Show Notes: National existing median home price: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/HOSMEDUSM052N National median home price (existing & new): https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MSPUS Get mortgage loans for investment property: RidgeLendingGroup.com or call 855-74-RIDGE or e-mail: info@RidgeLendingGroup.com Memphis & Little Rock property that cash flows from Day One: Find cash-flowing Jacksonville property at: Will you please leave a review for the show? I’d be grateful. Search “how to leave an Apple Podcasts review” Top Properties & Providers: Best Financial Education: Get our wealth-building newsletter free—text ‘GRE’ to 66866 Our YouTube Channel: www.youtube.com/c/GetRichEducation Follow us on Instagram: Keith’s personal Instagram:
Welcome to GRE! I’m your host, Keith Weinhold.
Would you rather be age 18 and poor or 80 and wealthy?
Learn about how a second mortgage could benefit you.
Historically, what REGIONS of the nation have the most stable and volatile real estate prices?
Then, there are two ominous threats to FUTURE property prices. All that and more, today, on Episode 444 of Get Rich Education.
Welcome to GRE! From Orange County, Florida to Orange County, CA and across 188 nations worldwide, I’m Keith Weinhold, this is Get Rich Education.
Last week marked 50 years since the first-ever cellphone call was placed. The call from the 2.5-pound brick-sized cellphone was placed in NYC - Manhattan.
That phone could NOT fit inside a standard pocket.
Sheesh! Look, I won’t even use a case on my iPhone today because I’m concerned about the weight and friction and it would add!
I want it light and I want to be able to quickly slide it in & out of my pocket. Ha!
Well, I’ve got a more significant trade-off for you to consider.
Would you rather be age 18 and poor or age 80 and wealthy?
I think you and most everyone would rather be 18 years old and poor rather than 80 years old and wealthy.
I am pretty confident that you & I agree on that.
Well, if you’d rather be 18 and poor, then why would you go to a job to trade your time for dollars?
Because that’s exactly how you move away from 18 and poor straight toward 80 & wealthier but probably 80 & still less than wealthy.
Why would you make that trade?
Even if you love your job - if it’s not the activity you’d MOST want to be doing out of anything else in the wide spectrum of life, move away from 18 & poor?
Well, time is going to pass one way or the other, but you can win back your time & end up wealthy rather than “somewhat less than wealthy”...
…when you provide value for society by giving them housing, getting paid 5 ways at the same time, one of which includes a MOSTLY passive income stream, trading relatively little of your life time all the while. That’s why we do here.
That way, you’re not quite going to be 18 & wealthy, but wealthy when you’re young enough to enjoy it.
Over the last three years, property prices are up 30 to 40% in a lot of markets.
We’re going to look at the current & future direction of real estate prices in a moment.
But let’s talk about what you can do with this… what you can do with that dead equity in your properties.
America has near record-high equity levels right now so this is really timely here.
But there’s a bit of a problem with tapping your equity today. Before I get into that, just a recap minute here…
Of course, as any longtime listener knows, since the rate of return from home equity is always zero, you have a chance to harvest your equity.
Having, even an extra $1,000 of equity in any property, including your own home, is like making an extra principal payment of $1,000.
Doing that is like you saying, “Hey, Mr. Banker. Here’s an extra $1,000 principal payment. Don’t pay me any interest on it. If I need it back, I’ll pay you fees, and I’ll try to prove to you that I qualify again.”
That’s the short story on why home equity is unsafe, Illiquid, and its ROI is Zero.
OK, but if you have a mortgage loan that’s set at just 3 or 4% interest, are you really going to refinance that whole loan just to pull some money out - just to convert some equity to cash?
Because if you did, your mortgage rate could go up to 6 or 7%. So accessing equity isn’t as great as it used to be.
Ah, but there’s a way around this.
One your, say, property at, say, Huckleberry Lane, you could keep your existing mortgage in-place at that low 3% or 4% rate, and potentially add a second mortgage onto Huckleberry Lane - and only that second mortgage is at the higher rate. The first loan stays in place and so does its amortization schedule.
Now, if your Huckleberry Lane property is worth $500K, you can often have 80% of that, or $400K borrowed, that’s that 80% combined-loan-to-value ratio.
That means that the amount of cash that you can get your hands on is $400K minus your mortgage balance.
That’s why a lot of property owners are able to access, often, $100K or more cash, without touching their low first mortgage at all.
Get $100K cash out - or whatever you have access to - it’s not providing you with any rate of return anyway.
Though you can often borrow out up to 80% of your primary residence’s property value, the deal isn’t as good as far as getting second mortgages on your rental property.
Second mortgages on a rental are, sometimes available, sometimes not. When they are, it’s recently been just up to 70% that you can borrow out.
Now, as good as this might sound, it doesn’t mean that you SHOULD do it. What are the risks with taking a second mortgage on your home or rental properties?
Well, some second mortgages take the form of a Home Equity Line of Credit - or HELOC.
The interest rate on your HELOC can fluctuate, so there’s interest rate risk. Most HELOCs have a fixed rate period for the first 5 or more years though.
Before I talk more about the risk of a second mortgage, it’s just amazing - the number of people that I run into out there - most of them aren’t REIs - but homeowners that are elated that they got a low mortgage rate 2, 3 years ago (and they should be - congratulations)... but they want to tap their bloated home equity and don’t know about adding a second mortgage.
Now, a risk with a second mortgage is the potential pitfall of borrowing short to go long, meaning your HELOC rate resets in a little as five years - it could go down when it resets and it goes up, and at that time, you’re not liquid enough to deal with the second mortgages higher payments.
Now, I know, it’s exciting about getting into more income property, using dead equity from your own home or your own rentals - because it’s “Real Estate Pays 5 Ways” stuff.
You might tell yourself, that when you add up a 5 rates of return from investment property - appreciation, cash flow, amortization, tax benefits and inflation-profiting, that you can surely see a total rate of return on your new rentals of 20% or 30% or more.
So if your second mortgage has an interest rate of 7 or 8%, you’d do that deal and pocket the spread.
Yes, it sure might work out that way, in fact, there’s even a probability that it could work out that way.
But the risk is that you’ve got to stay liquid enough to service the debt if your second mortgage rate rises or any other reason.
And you might be just fine. You might have enough cash flow or cash stored that you’re padded, you’re fine… and your underwriter might help you look at that during your second mortgage qualification.
You might ask Ridge Lending Group or your favorite lender about second mortgage options.
So, now you know. A second mortgage can keep up your velocity of money. There are benefits and there are risks.
Utilizing it successfully looks something like this.
You start off with 50% equity in one property, which is 2:1 leverage, you move some of that into a second property.
Now you’ve got 25% equity in both.
You’ve done MORE than double your wealth-amplifying ability here. You’ve virtually 4Xed.
Because rather than having 2:1 leverage in one property, you’ve got 4:1 leverage in two properties.
That’s how wealth is BUILT.
Let’s talk about those ERSTWHILE home prices.
There are at least two ominous threats to future home prices. And now that it’s Spring and market activity picks up, what's the CURRENT direction of home prices?
Real estate can move slower than glaciers, so March numbers are still scarce.
Home prices in the resale market - alright, that means existing homes, not new-build - those resale prices have stayed remarkably resilient, even when mortgage rates jumped up back in February.
John Burns REC compiles a chart for the latest survey of resale agents. The question that was asked is: “What direction have resale home prices moved in the last month?”
The national survey respondents can pick that prices are either MOST INCREASING, MOSTLY DECREASING, or MOSTLY FLAT.
This February, for the first time since May of 2022, more said that home prices are "mostly increasing" rather than "mostly decreasing":
Note though, that most of the agents in the latest survey show that prices are merely steady at 51%. 26% said “increasing” and 23% decreasing.
Credit to JBREC. This is a national survey of ~2,600 resale agents.
Now just from this chart and THESE stats, note something interesting. October 2022—appears to be housing’s low point. That was then, six months ago—marking housing's recent low point.
So, that’s a different angle on looking at home prices than usual - asking agents what they’re seeing.
National existing home prices, per the FRED stats, month-over-month are up just a little, from about $361K to $363K. Again, that’s through February.
Seasonally, that could go up more. That typically happens each year when spring transitions to summer.
There’s a good chance that national homes prices will be rising these next few months.
If you think that those prices sound a little low, be mindful, this entire discussion, so far, is about EXISTING homes aka resale homes, which tend to be priced lower than new construction homes.
If you combine both existing & new, same source, $468,000 is the national median home price. That was the same quarter-over-quarter. Same source too.
It’s always important to cite the source when it comes to statistics.
You know, some say the 1990s are when America moved into the Information Age. But, at some point, in the 2010s, did we move into the DisInformation Age?
I don’t know. There’s a lot of both out there - a plethora, a profusion of both information and disinformation.
Some of these niche finance social media pages don’t cite their sources, and more often than not, I don’t follow them or I unfollow them if I find that they regularly don’t cite source.
The other type of story that I unfollow or just stay away from, are article headlines or images with the word “Rumor” in it.
I don’t want to follow Rumors. Now, I guess, in the best case, a rumor could turn out to be true and maybe could give you a heads up on something that actually turns out to come true later.
But, the world is full of real information. I don’t want to spend this one finite life I have on earth catching up on rumors. It’s more sports sites that use that word rather than finance sites.
Rumor is just an annoying word, I guess. It’s a synonym for “gossip”.
Hey, the real estate investing and personal finance world has its own quirks and odd spins on words.
One thing I haven’t been able to figure out is how a guru is bad and an obsession is good.
Some people disparage thought leaders and influencers as gurus.
Guru means an influential teacher or an expert. That sounds like someone worth listening to to me.
How are obsessions good. Some say, to succeed, you’ve go to be obsessed.
No, you don’t. That sounds unhealthy.
The definition of obsess is to preoccupy or fill the mind of someone continually, intrusively, and to a troubling extent.
Don’t fall into the trap of an obsession.
Well, to recap what you’ve learned today on Get Rich Education Episode 444 (ha!) rumors and obsessions are bad, and gurus are good.
Enough digression. Getting back to real estate investing.
Like I said at the beginning of the year, I don’t expect much national HPA or price declines this year.
But regionally, the markets that we focus on here - the ones in the Southeast and Midwest and a little in the Northeast, have all performed well.
Many - even most - in our target markets appreciated in 2018 & 2019 & 2020 & 2021 & 2022 & they’re continuing to do so now.
Many Florida markets are still seeing 10%+ appreciation. We’re talking about those stable markets, avoiding the volatile, largely coastal markets where prices are sinking, especially on the West Coast.
As I've long discussed, one reason that we invest where we do are for their stable prices, even during downturns.
Backed by historical data, American housing's long-term regional price volatility is broken down like this: The most stable markets are in the Midwest and the Inland Northeast. The medium volatility markets are in South And the highly volatile markets, which we avoid are in the West, and the Coastal Northeast - like NYC and Boston. I’m going to guess that you’ve never heard regional home price VOLATILITY described before. Now, you might wonder, if the Inland Northeast tends to have more stable, long-term pricing than the South, why don’t we favor it more than the South. Well, stable prices are important. But having high rent ratios and having strong LL-tenant laws and high in-migration make the Southeast a strong investment area. Of course, when I describe regions this broad there tend to be some outliers and exceptions. Now, it’s going to be interesting to see how America’s regional pricing level AND its level of stability changes over time. That is set up to change at a faster pace, and you might know why that is - why these geographic regions could see, really more of an amalgamation of characteristics and that is due to… you MIGHT know what I’m going to say. WFH. That actually is not an initialism or acronym for some kind of thinly veiled profanity. It is work-from-home. The rise in Work From Home Trends could really start to blur these lines over time. Now, it would be a trend that moves slowly. But consider, that, in January of 2023 six times more work was happening remotely than it was in January of 2019, that’s according to a company called WFH Research. In fact, in major cities like New York and Chicago there are now more job postings for flexible arrangements than at any point during the last three years, according to the NBER & Bloomberg. Now, that’s of less concern to you, the residential property investor. It might just be an interesting trend and create more demand for your product - HOMES! But it could very well put downward pressure price pressure on higher-priced areas like Manhattan, Brooklyn, and San Jose… and more upward price pressure on those lower cost areas where you & I tend to buy property. But with more Americans working from their homes, it is bad, bad, bad for downtown commercial landlords and some central business district companies who survived the 2020 lockdowns… but STILL haven’t fully bounced back three years later. Gosh! GetRichEducation.com is where you can learn more about how to invest in real estate the right way, the profitable way - with articles that I write myself, and our videos and more. It is all free. If you would like to contact us, with a question about the show, you can do so at GetRichEducation.com/Contact More straight head, including two ominous signs for the future of the housing market. I’m Keith Weinhold. You’re listening to Episode 444 of Get Rich Education. ______________________ Welcome back to Get Rich Education. I’m your host, Keith Weinhold.
We are keepin' it real here at GRE. Building real wealth in the real world with real estate.
See the, uh, emphasis on the world “real”. Back in December, on Episode 427, you’ll remember that we did a show devoted to Metaverse Real Estate Investing… and the consensus of the guest & I were that it is risky and in most cases, ill-advised to get involved.
Well, it was recently announced that both Disney and Microsoft have shuttered their metaverse projects.
Popular virtual worlds have seen steep drops in interest, with the median sale price of real estate in Decentraland plummeting 90% YoY. You know, with the real thing, even if your real estate lost value, which isn’t common, it can’t go down too far. You’ve still got the value of the land underneath it and the value of all the materials that your property is built with. What about national home prices for the rest of this year? Of course, it’s always a little odd to discuss national home prices with the tens of thousands of US markets.
It’s kind of like coming up with a national weather average.
Here are the MAIN factors governing national home price direction this year.
The headwinds to price growth - the threats are #1: 1 - We had banks fail early this spring. More regional bank fallout could contribute to tightening lending standards. Tightening lending standards would mean that fewer borrowers could qualify, and that could reduce demand. Reduced home demand is NOT good for prices. So that’s ominous housing threat number #1. But even if that happens, regional banks are often making COMMERCIAL real loans. The government-backed loans you’re getting for residential are more desirable - we’re talking VA, FHA, rural housing mortgage, and conforming loans that are sold to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac - which are often those types that you’re getting for 1-4 unit income properties at GRE Marketplace. All government-guaranteed stuff. The second substantial threat to some good home price appreciation this year is that there is a small chance of a big "job loss" recession. With it being over a year since the Fed started raising rates, there is a lag effect and we should some at least a few more job losses as we head toward a likely recession. They are the two ominous threats. The tailwinds to price growth - these are the strengths for rising home prices, there are 3. The first one is that labor & supply inflation remains elevated, and well, that obviously keeps upward pressure on home prices. The second positive, or strength for home prices is - like I touched on earlier - increasing spring homebuyer demand hasn’t been factored into the numbers yet - and that always boosts prices. And then the third strength and underlying factor to boost home prices this year is really, what I’ve called “the crash” which has caught some people off guard. Yes, this generation’s housing crash ALREADY happened. It is that SUPPLY CRASH of about 60% in available American homes to buy. We have such a low housing supply, like we’ve discussed in-depth elsewhere on the show so I won’t elaborate on that, but that changes nearly everything and it is one reason that home prices are still so resilient today. Still more demand than supply. National home prices have begun heading up a little, and there are a few more opportunities than there are threats that prices should keep rising, but I don’t expect any huge gain, like no 10% gain nationally this year. I don’t see how that can happen at all. Now, you’ll notice that, mortgage rates, - I didn’t put them into either category - either the upcoming housing threats or strength and that’s simply because we don’t know where mortgage rates are headed. They’re so hard to predict so that’s why I’m not forecasting where I think that mortgage rates will go. You know how when you’re under contract to buy a property and you & your mortgage loan officer are having that strategy session on WHEN you want to lock in your rate. At least one time in your life - and I sure have in mine - you’re tempted to ask your MLO where they think rates are going… well, like I said, they’re just really difficult to forecast. Your MLO often doesn’t know where they’re going to go. Do you remember, last year, or I sure do because I follow this stuff closely, the number of people and professionals that said mortgage rates would be 8 to 10% by Spring of 2023? Yeah, quite a few people said that emphatically. They’re about 6.3% today. Before I get back to real estate, the quarter recently ended so let’s whip around the asset classes like we do sometimes at quarter-end. Tech stocks got a boost in the first quarter, that helped the S&P be up 7%.
Stocks of the tech giants that are leading the charge in AI-powered search, Microsoft and Alphabet, outpaced that.
Meanwhile, the second- and third-largest bank collapses in US history happening within 48 hours hurt bank stocks.
Bitcoin was up 72% in Q1. Do we say that crypto winter is over when bitcoin hits $30K?
Oil prices were flat, beginning & ending the quarter at around $80.
Gold was up 7%, partly due to the bank failures.
Silver rose 4% for the quarter.
You know what’s been a really bad investment for the last decade, despite all the good things that you hear about its promise - investing in physical silver. You read that there’s now more silver above ground than below ground.
10 years ago, silver was worth $25 dollars an ounce and it’s still worth… $25 an ounce.
That’s even worse than it sounds to laypeople. If you’ve held any investment for 10 years like that and it’s worth merely the same amount of dollars, inflation just chomped about half of it away.
We might have had 40 or 50% or more real inflation in the last decade… and silver bars didn’t pay you an income stream during that time either. What a poor performer!
Though I think that SOME precious metals can still be a good STORE of value.
That was whipping around the other asset classes in Q1 of this year.
One place to park your money that is NOT a good store of value is… savings accounts and CDs and MMFs.
Their interest rate, though it might feel good getting paid up to 4% or 5% on those, it ensures that you’re losing prosperity every day… because CPI inflation is higher than that, and then the real rate of inflation is higher than that yet. True inflation might be double your savings account rate.
Instead, the smart money BEATS inflation and all the time, a little more of the smart money is GETTING OUT OF DOLLARS too with these rising concerns about foreign nations doing more of their business in yuan or another currency outside of the petro dollar.
The dollar is currently under a lot of stress, besides just the inflation. Dollars in savings accounts & the like… don’t just lose to inflation… they’re actually keeping your prosperity denominated in dollars, which a growing chorus feels precarious about right now.
Is the dollar about to lose its world reserve currency status? I don’t know. I think people having been calling for that since shortly after Richard Nixon took us off the gold standard in 1971.
Instead, what about a fully renovated or brand new investment property, with a rent-paying tenant placed and its all under professional management for you.
That way it’s low hassle for you, yet because you own the asset directly, you have the CONTROL without the hassle, and you’re often paid those five ways.
This way, not only are you getting out of dollars with your down payment - another way to say it is that you’re converting your dollars into real estate…
Then on top of that, when you borrow the dollars for 75 or 80% of the purchase price… you’re getting out of dollars so much that you’ve essentially fund a way to go negative with your dollar position on that property.
When you buy through our network, since the property is new or renovated, you should often expect little or no ongoing repair or maintenance expense in the early years.
And here’s the thing that some investors overlook. You may not have an CapEx expense at all. Those big capital expenditures like a new roof or windows or a furnace.
That’s because when you buy new or rehabbed and you consider that your hold time often isn’t more than 7-10 years due to equity accumulation and leverage ratios, as you lever up into another property, you can leave the Capital Expenditures to the next buyer when you sell.
So, these are some reasons why buying residential real estate makes a ton of sense in this environment.
Will these next five years be as lucrative as the last five years? No, I really wouldn’t expect that - that’s because of the historically high price runup these past few years.
But I still cannot think of a better place to be than that strategically-chosen real estate.
You can go ahead and get started looking at some properties in markets and connect with our free investment coaching there if you so choose.
That’s all at GREmarketplace.com
Hey, I really had a great time chatting real estate and everything else with you today.
Until next week, I’m your host, KW. DQYD!
|
Mon, 3 April 2023
HGTV Star, Tarek El Moussa joins me today. Incredibly, he got into TV with no experience and no contacts. What a story! Apartment and multifamily construction is staying heightened. Conversely, few new single-family homes are being built. We’re now hiring at GRE. Tarek hustles. His life took a turn when he attended a motivational Tom Ferry real estate seminar. To flip a property, he began to identify distressed properties with expired listings. Today, he tells us why he actually targets pending listings for acquisitions. When he got a show with HGTV, Tarek was only doing his first-ever flip. He also didn’t have the money to acquire distressed property for flips. Tarek didn’t even know how to flip! But HGTV immediately wanted him to flip 13 houses in 10 months. Tarek is best at finding and negotiating deals. He outsources other tasks. He chose contractors that specialize in fix & flip renovations. Tarek discovers them by looking at rehabbed property listings, calling the sales agent, and asking for the contractor’s name. Long-term, we discuss being an active flipper vs. passive real estate investor. Today, Tarek and his wife star in HGTV’s “The Flipping El Moussas”. He also has a: real estate syndication, solar company, flipping summit, flipping course, and more. Resources mentioned: Show Notes: HGTV’s “The Flipping El Moussas”: www.hgtv.com/shows/the-flipping-el-moussas Homeschooled by Tarek: www.HomeSchooledByTarek.com TEM Capital: https://temcapital.co The Flipping Summit: www.theflippingsummit.com/home-page-1 Get mortgage loans for investment property: RidgeLendingGroup.com or call 855-74-RIDGE or e-mail: info@RidgeLendingGroup.com Memphis & Little Rock property that cash flows from Day One: Find cash-flowing Jacksonville property at: Will you please leave a review for the show? I’d be grateful. Search “how to leave an Apple Podcasts review” Top Properties & Providers: Best Financial Education: Get our wealth-building newsletter free—text ‘GRE’ to 66866 Our YouTube Channel: www.youtube.com/c/GetRichEducation Follow us on Instagram: Keith’s personal Instagram: |
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