Mon, 31 August 2020
Where are the big investment risks today? Economic forecaster Harry Dent tells us. Despite pandemic-driven unemployment, tenants are largely paying the rent. The price of an existing American home is now $304,100, surging 8.5%. Lumber prices for a new home are up $16K since April. This increases the value of your property’s replacement cost. The new 0.5% adverse market condition fee for refinances is annoying. Learn how to avoid it. In the pandemic, real estate keeps shining. Harry Dent is fired up. He joins me to tell us why he thinks most assets are in a bubble: economics and demographics. His latest book is “Zero Hour”. Baby Boomers find renting to be more acceptable today. Harry predicts when stocks will fall 80-85%, a crash occurs, and about the profligacy of the Fed printing trillions in the pandemic. Resources mentioned: Harry Dent’s website: Mortgage Loans: QRPs: text “QRP” in ALL CAPS to 72000 or: By texting “QRP” to 72000 and opting in, you will receive periodic marketing messages from eQRP Co. Message & data rates may apply. Reply “STOP” to cancel. New Construction Turnkey Property: Best Financial Education: Top Properties & Providers: Follow us on Instagram: Keith’s personal Instagram:
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Mon, 24 August 2020
The wealthy are enjoying federal monetary stimulus. Meanwhile, unemployed tenants can now be evicted nationally (check your local law). Own assets? Great. Mortgage interest rates are at historic lows; the S&P 500 is at an all-time high. (Entire episode transcript is below. Read as you listen.) In the pandemic, tenants want single-family homes more than communal apartments. Fannie Mae & Freddie Mac want to add a 0.5% refinancing fee. Homebuilder sentiment is high? Why? High demand, low inventory, low rates. Stagflation is explained. It is a stagnant economy with high inflation. There are signs that inflation is poised to increase. Resources mentioned: Inflation Triple Crown video: Section 8 turnkey property: www.GetRichEducation.com/Section8 Stagflation video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YaC_PNKu_Cg&feature=youtu.be Elevator Anxiety: https://www.axios.com/elevator-anxiety-reopenings-9a474985-4786-43a3-8b64-5119ff7f2267.html Mortgage Loans: QRPs: text “QRP” in ALL CAPS to 72000 or: By texting “QRP” to 72000 and opting in, you will receive periodic marketing messages from eQRP Co. Message & data rates may apply. Reply “STOP” to cancel. New Construction Turnkey Property: Best Financial Education: Top Properties & Providers: Follow us on Instagram: Keith’s personal Instagram:
Complete Episode Transcript:
Welcome to Get Rich Education. I’m your host, Keith Weinhold.
The rich are getting richer and the poor are getting poorer. I can’t think of any one time in my life where that’s been happening more than it has been than right now.
I’ll tell you why - and what you need to do to get on the right side of that.
What is going on in the real estate market and what are the real estate economics that matter? Then, a discussion about inflation. Today, on Get Rich Education. ____________
Hey, you’re inside GRE. From Manila, Philippines to Managua, Nicaragua and across 188 nations worldwide, I’m Keith Weinhold. This is Get Rich Education.
The rich are getting richer, the poor are getting poorer - and I can’t think of any one time in my life where that’s been happening more than it has been than right now.
Because Americans living paycheck-to-paycheck might now be ... paycheck-less. Some of them are laid off - because of the pandemic - and now they're concerned that there's no national eviction ban.
That’s right. In most states, non-paying tenants CAN be evicted at this time. Now, you’ve got to check your local law.
Well, when is Congress going to do something to relieve those that the pandemic has left unemployed?
Well, they don’t even reconvene until after Labor Day.
Some people are wondering - “Where is the CARES Act 2?” Where are those updated forbearance options, eviction moratorium, the PayCheck Protection Program, and the $1,200 stimulus checks and the stepped-up weekly unemployment compensation?
In fact, Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin had good metaphor. He said: “Months ago, when we did the first stimulus, we thought the economy faced a pothole and the stimulus put a plate over it so we could navigate.
Now escalation of the virus may be making that pothole into a sinkhole and creating a need for a longer plate.” That’s the end of what the Fed President said.
Now, look, I think there’s a lot to be said for just letting the free market do it’s job.
But it’s a little hard to be in this laissez-faire, Austrian economics school of thought when some people could be suffering.
So that you know what I’m talking about, “lay-say-fare” basically means no government intervention into the free market.
Meanwhile, the rich are bingeing off Federal Reserve policy and liquidity injections that keep mortgage interest rates at historic lows and the S&P 500 at an all-time high.
Mortgage rates recently dipped below 3%, which is just amazing.
You don’t even have to be THAT rich … to benefit. If you’ve got substantial exposure to the real estate market or the stock market, chances are, that those assets are doing alright.
One thing that you need to keep in mind as an investor, is that, when the Fed puts rates on the floor, it affects more than just MORTGAGE rates - it affects other rates too - like savings account rates.
Just look at the rates at bank savings accounts.
Even if you’re in one of these online banks that give better yields than traditional brick-and-mortar banks - we’re talking about online-first banks like Ally Bank and Popular Bank - they were paying two-and-a-half percent on savings accounts not all that long ago.
Even those banks are now down to about three-quarters of one percent - probably less than the real rate of inflation.
So because savers get punished worse than ever right now, that, in turn, forces more people INTO things like real estate, because you’re in search of that yield.
Even retirees can’t rely on the paltry income from three-quarters of one percent yield so they have to go to the markets to chase yields too - sometimes unwillingly.
Well, when all these people that got negative REAL yield on savings accounts and CDs - and aren’t going to stand for it anymore, it forces more demand … and money into markets and consequently, floats the price of everything up.
That’s what’s going on now.
Now, I personally don't really like this deepening canyon between the "rich” and the “poor". But I know which side I'd rather be on.
Besides the investment properties, a lot of people want to move and shake-up their living situation like never before - their primary residence - and filter their new home-buying criteria on pandemic ways of life.
Bidding wars are rampant for single-family homes. How rampant are they? Well, Zillow just reported their highest daily active user count ... ever.
Now, though property data can move even slower than your last 1031 Exchange did, Real Estate Economist Daren Blomquist just compiled THESE year-over-year price changes through quarter two.
You’ve heard Daren Blomquist on the show here. He broke this down this way:
City real estate is up +4% - again, this is all year-over-year through the second quarter. Town +4% Suburban +5% Rural +11%
The two sources are ATTOM Data Solutions and the U.S. Census Bureau.
So rural is appreciating the best. City and town is appreciating the least.
With time, I expect urban areas and apartments to slump. Of course, urban areas and apartments kind of go together.
In the pandemic, living in a lot of large apartment buildings has become about as fashionable as Jazzercise and The Atkins Diet.
Of course, at GRE, we've long focused on rental single-family homes. We’ve talked a little about apartments and you know that I started out with a four-plex & got my start in real estate that way.
This week, NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun noted:
" ... (There's) an oversupply of apartment buildings, especially in city centers given the evident recent shift in consumer preference for single-family homes in the suburbs.
Lawrence Yun continued: "Apartment rent growth could therefore be tough going ahead.
The rise of single-family units is welcome, as overall inventory of homes for sale are down 19% from one year ago and there is intense buyer competition in the market as a result." That’s the end of what Lawrence Yun said.
As long as your tenant can pay the rent, this is welcome news for your existing single-family rental homes - like the ones that you’ve acquired through GREturnkey.com.
It puts upward pressure on the price. So congratulations there.
The appetite for real assets, especially desirable rental single-family homes, now propelled by low inventory and low interest rates has put you in good shape if you’ve acted.
But of course, the COVID pandemic isn’t over. We don’t really know how all of this is going to turn out. And even when a vaccine is developed, remember that it will probably take … at least a few months to distribute it.
In my OWN portfolio, all of my single-family rental homes are occupied - 100%. But my apartment building vacancies are unusually high right now.
When we talk about apartment buildings and office buildings as well - Axios recently reported about how residents and workers are experiencing what they call “elevator anxiety”. I’ll put that in the Show Notes for you.
An elevator is one of the most physically, uncomfortable awkward places to be in the pandemic.
If you’re wondering about how that real estate looks - we’re generally talking about buildings that are four or more stories in height.
In fact, the ADA - the Americans with Disabilities Act - stipulates that properties with four or more stories generally are going to need to have an elevator.
I’ll tell ya - if apartment buildings are as unfashionable as the Adkins Diet these days, then being inside an elevator is about as hip as Jane Fonda workout videos, NordicTrack, and Sweatin' To The Oldies with Richard Simmons.
https://youtu.be/na9ZZ4ZjVa8?t=28
Oh geez. Did that really just happen? I guess it did. So … while we’re all processing that, getting back to real estate here.
Now, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac recently said that they will start charging a 0.5% “adverse market fee” on all refinances, including both cash-out and non-cash-out refis. They were trying to put that new fee into effect for next month. What a drag that would be. So for every $200,000 you refinance, you’d have to pay an additional $1,000 fee - or maybe your lender would pay it. What Freddie Mac said is: “As a result of risk management and loss forecasting precipitated by COVID-19 related economic and market uncertainty, we are introducing a new … what they call ... Market Condition Credit Fee in Price”. Freddie sent in their notice to lenders. Wouldn’t that be an annoying fee? Well, almost immediately, the National Association of Mortgage Brokers struck back. They launched a campaign to reverse that newly announced one-half of one percent refinancing fee. We’ll see where that goes.
Now, things are really good for homebuilders these day. An index measuring homebuilder sentiment matched its highest level ever yesterday. Why? I mean, it’s simple. There is a healthy amount of DEMAND from buyers and not enough homes to meet it. Also, the 30-year fixed mortgage rate bottomed out at 2.88% in August, the lowest point on record. Those low borrowing rates are boosting homebuyers' appetites … obviously. There really are a few recent stories that are de facto microcosms - reflections of this appetite for a work-from-home arrangement and less dense housing. For example, it’s really telling to look at what the outdoor clothing and gear company, REI just did. Do you like REI? I like shopping there. Even if you aren’t into outdoor stuff, you can always find a cool water bottle or something at REI. Well, they just announced plans to sell the lavish corporate campus that they had just finished building near Seattle. REI executives concluded that employees were able to collaborate remotely better than the company originally THOUGHT ...so a massive physical HQ just wasn’t worth the cost any longer. So REI is selling what they had just built. Other real estate segments falling out of favor - are those high-density places, like you might expect - New York City and San Francisco.
NYC and San Francisco were already the most expensive housing markets in the country BEFORE the pandemic. And life under lockdown has given people that nudge they had already been considering for years. And then, single-family homes in outlying areas are the real beneficiaries here. There have been a number of notable milestones. COLORADO SFH sales rose 21% July-over-July. The median price statewide in Colorado is now $444,000. Just looking at Denver, Denver just broke the $600K mark for the first time ever.
So, a few months into the pandemic, we’re getting a clearer sense of who the winners and losers are - a lot of them are what we expected.
If I had to slim it down to just a 3-word answer for you on why the rich are getting richer, those 3 words are: Federal Monetary Stimulus.
And the stimulus is disproportionately benefitting … asset owners.
Well, the pandemic hasn’t affected some real estate investors at all. Others, feel more reliant on the next government stimulus program to give their tenants the wherewithal to pay the rent.
Well, if you, as an investor want to have the majority of your rent income payment guaranteed to be made by the government to you over the long-term, well, that’s what landlords of tenants with HUD-funded “Section 8” housing have enjoyed for decades.
You have guaranteed rent income.
I think you remember that I had a turnkey provider that specializes in Section 8 housing here on the show on Get Rich Education Episode 297. So just ten show ago, which was 10 weeks ago.
Like any investment, Section 8 Housing is best viewed through a prism of pros and cons.
Section 8 is not for everybody. Some love it, some don’t … but this provider manages the Section 8 administration FOR you. They’ve got a great relationship with the housing authority.
That’s something that most landlords of this government-subsidized housing never had.
“Guaranteed rent income” has a nicer ring to it than it did just a year ago.
Get the provider report and learn more at GetRichEducation.com/Section8
That’s our Richmond, Virginia provider. In fact, CNBC named Virginia as the most business-friendly state in the entire nation.
I’m Keith Weinhold and I’m coming back to talk to you about inflation.
Again, learn more at GetRichEducation.com/Section8. This is Get Rich Education!
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Hey, you’re back inside Get Rich Education. I’m your host, Keith Weinhold.
Both the pandemic-driven CARES Act, and whatever other monetary stimulus acts that follow … are injections of trillions of dollars into the economy.
In fact, it’s now driven our national debt to nearly $27 trillion dollars.
Of course, this has the effect of … money printing. It’s not literal money printing. The more you learn about it, it’s often U.S. government bond issuance.
A bond really just means that the government issues an I.O.U. that someone else, like China buys.
Those are some of the semantics behind, what we you can really more closely think of as “currency creation” rather than money printing.
Will this result in inflation? That’s the big question. Well, longer-term, many think, “yes”. Short-term, “no”. We are in a low demand environment.
Of course, as a real estate investor, you want inflation. You might have seen on the Get Rich Education YouTube Channel where, I have visually mapped out how you win “The Inflation Triple Crown”.
In fact, if you just Google the three words, “Inflation Triple Crown”, you can probably see me - as the first hit on Google - and you can watch me doing the whiteboard video.
As you’ll remember, real estate investors win the Inflation Triple Crown because inflation provides you with: #1 Asset Price Inflation, #2 Debt Debasement and #3 Cash Flow Enhancement - that all works terrifically when you’re leveraged.
There are more signs of inflation out there in the economy right now than we’ve seen in the recent past. Though I still expect it to be mild as long as we’re in this pandemic-driven low demand environment …
The consumer price index rose six-tenths of one percent last month. That beat the two-tenths expectation that economists had had.
Food are prices up substantially, and then, a substantial input to homebuilder pricing and therefore the future value of homes - is lumber - and lumber prices have been soaring higher.
Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said that the administration is unfazed with these historically obscenely high levels of government spending … thanks to the nation’s very low interest rates.
See, the Fed is less concerned about mounting debt when the interest rate that THEY pay on their debt is low … much like you’re less concerned about your debt when the interest rate is so low - you might be looking to take on more debt now.
Of course, YOU’VE got a better deal on your real estate debt than the Federal Government does, because the Federal Government doesn’t have tenants to service their debt for them like you do in an occupied rental property.
Could America reach a STAGflationary state again like it did in the 1970s? We haven’t discussed the economic phenomena of stagflation before.
Do you know what that is? Stagflation is a stagnant economy with inflation. That’s what it means.
OK, usually a more stagnant economy - like we’re in now - is characterized by low inflation due to lower demand not running up the prices of consumer goods and household staples.
But again, stagflation means that there’s a stagnant economy WITH high inflation. Could THAT happen this decade?
To reinforce your learning here, let’s listen to the audio from this explainer video from One Minute Economics about stagflation.
This is less than a minute & a half in length.
https://youtu.be/YaC_PNKu_Cg
Yes, well, if we get stagflation, meaning again, a stagnant economy that we have high inflation, I don’t know that we’d have another Fed Chief like Paul Voelcker - who, 40 years ago, brazenly raised interest rates so aggressively to combat inflation that mortgage rates were 18% forty years ago.
I don’t know that anyone would prevent inflation from running away at that point.
But again, that’s STAGFLATION.
Now, I know what you might be thinking. Maybe you’re thinking that all of the Fed currency creation to pull us out of 2009’s Great Recession didn’t produce high inflation, so why would it be any different this time, with all these CURRENT cycles of massive dollar creation once again?
That would be a valid thing for you to think.
At least based on the official government numbers, we’ve only had about 2% monetary inflation in recent years.
Well, see. Though high inflation wasn’t the RESULT ten years ago, it might have actually been CREATED and you just didn’t know it. So, here’s what I mean.
Say that the expansion of globalization and technological advancement REALLY meant that we had NEGATIVE 5% inflation - another way to say that is that what if we WOULD HAVE had 5 points of deflation if they’re WEREN’T any excess dollar creation?.
But yet, all of the dollar creation after the Great Recession caused 7% inflation.
Well then, 5 points of DEflation offset by 7% INflation resulted in ... 2% inflation.
Think about it that way. Maybe something like that is what really happened … and that is why all of today’s currency creation COULD result in high inflation. We don’t know that it will. But that’s just one reason why it COULD.
Now, overall, to pull back and look at the state of housing in this pandemic-driven recession.
Housing has been - and continues to be - substantially better off in this recession THAN it was in the 2008 Great Recession - that event - twelve years ago, had a housing COLLAPSE as a driver. People left the keys and walked away from their homes back then.
Now, instead, we’ve got bidding wars for housing.
I want to temper that with a reminder that the pandemic is not over yet, and it could still take an unforeseen turn.
The bad part about this recession is that we’ve got higher unemployment than we did back then.
Now, the reasons that real estate is BETTER OFF in this recession compared to the last one is:
They are … the key differences.
Coming up on a future episode here - we’re primarily a show about how buy-and-hold residential INVESTMENT property produces wealth for you - and how to avoid mistakes.
But so many people are re-evaluating their primary residence situation lately, that, coming up on the show, I’m going to go deep on - “Should You Rent Your Home Or Should You Own Your Home?”
There is some counterintuition and paradox here.
I’m going to give you a new twist on the fact that - if you pay rent, that is NOT The Same As Throwing Money Away
Also, some people seem to think that homeownership is like: "Renting. Except you get to keep it." That is false and that has caused millions of people to buy houses that they later regret.
Is your primary residence an investment? Do YOU consider it an investment? Well, in almost EVERY case it is a poor financial investment, but it could be a good lifestyle investment.
So, “Should You Rent Your Own Home Or Own Your Own Home that you live in.” That’s coming up on a future show.
Well, regardless of your living situation, pandemic-driven unemployment might have made you realize that … you need a durable, long-term 2nd source of income - if you don’t already have one.
Even if you aren’t losing your job, circumstances have hit close to home for a lot of people.
You can either let other people make money off your money, like the bank paying you 1% on your savings.
Or you can make money off OPM (like borrowing at a 5% mortgage to invest at 11% - or hopefully, a lot more than 11% with the (up to) five profit centers that real estate has.)
RE is that instrument of arbitrage.
As they say, you can either teach a man to fish or give a man a fish. Well, why not do both? That IS the abundance mindset afterall.
At GetRichEducation.com, we teach you how to fish.
At GREturnkey.com, we give you a fish too.
What is going on at GREturnkey?
Well, first, get your mortgage pre-approval at a reputable lender that specializes in investment property like Ridge Lending Group.
You’ll see at GREturnkey.com that Birmingham and Huntsville, AL have investor-advantaged numbers that work.
Pockets of Huntsville may have better appreciation if they’re tied to employment in the space industry.
Gosh, love him or hate him, Elon Musk gave us something to actually celebrate in an otherwise tough 2020 as he led the first private company to launch astronauts to space - emblematic of the burgeoning space industry - both Huntsville, AL and Orlando, Florida there at GREturnkey pick up on some of that.
We just discussed Chicago here last week. Chicago and Dayton, Ohio are two markets that keep sourcing existing inventory that they beautifully renovate, and both markets have rent-to-price ratios that are typically OVER 1%.
When you’re over 1% and mortgage interest rates are this low, it makes your affordability as an investor REALLY advantageous. That’s Chicago and Dayton.
Des Moines, Iowa is sourcing a little inventory lately - not as much as some of the other providers. That’s a stable place.
Florida is a bright spot for new construction turnkey property - Jacksonville, Tampa, and the aforementioned Orlando all sourcing brand new construction property.
When it’s NEW construction, your insurance cost is often really low too.
Memphis, Tennessee and Little Rock, Arkansas are both the SAME provider there at GREturnkey - and that provider name is MidSouthHomeBuyers. There you have lower price points and MidSouth Home Buyers is so good with beginners.
And then, Oklahoma City - the numbers work and some media outlets have named Oklahoma City as the most recession-resistant market in America. You’re getting a 1% rent-to-price ratio there too.
Finally, Richmond, Virginia - I mentioned them earlier. They specialize in knowing the ways and means of how to optimize Section 8 tenancies because they have a great relationship with the housing authority there.
Most, or really all of these markets that I mentioned are in the United States Midwest & South.
Florida - oddly enough - is not culturally the South - though it’s the most southeastern state there is - their history of net-in migration makes them culturally disparate from what we think of as the south, but …
… all these markets I mentioned are in investor-advantaged metros where you generally have more stable prices, and landlord-tenant law that favors your rights moreso than the tenant’s rights.
So these markets are hand-chosen pretty carefully for you.
Once you’re pre-qualified for a loan, find all those providers & a few more at GREturnkey.com.
I am honored because you have given me something … and that is that I have had the privilege of having your time today.
Until next week, I’m your host, Keith Weinhold. Don’t Quit Your Daydream!
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Mon, 17 August 2020
You contribute to homelessness. I do too. The problem goes right through real estate. Factors include: NIMBYism, minimum wage, salamanders, smoke detectors, and rent control. (Complete transcript on homelessness segment below.) Then, Chicago is a world class city with lots of economic diversification. Chicagoland’s numbers make sense for real estate investors. In northwestern Indiana (suburban Chicago), you avoid the high cost of Illinois property. A typical SFH has $1,350 rent and a $125,000 purchase price. If you’re serious about building your cash-flowing portfolio, learn more and see property at: www.GetRichEducation.com/Chicago Resources mentioned: Chicagoland turnkey property: www.GetRichEducation.com/Chicago Environmental regulations & housing: https://www.huduser.gov/periodicals/cityscpe/vol8num1/ch5.pdf NIMBYism: Mortgage Loans: QRPs: text “QRP” in ALL CAPS to 72000 or: By texting “QRP” to 72000 and opting in, you will receive periodic marketing messages from eQRP Co. Message & data rates may apply. Reply “STOP” to cancel. New Construction Turnkey Property: Best Financial Education: Top Properties & Providers: Follow us on Instagram: Keith’s personal Instagram:
Welcome to Get Rich Education! I’m your host, Keith Weinhold, with a two-part show. Real estate is a substantial input into homelessness. Why are people homeless - and why might you & I be partly RESPONSIBLE for it, in fact?
The second part - in general, world class cities don’t make any sense to invest in for cash flow - New York, LA, DC, London, Singapore … but we’re going to discuss one “world class” city that actually DOES. Today, on Get Rich Education. __________________
Here it is - hey! You’re inside GRE. From Sarasota, Florida to Sarajevo - in Bosnia and Herzegovina - and across 188 nations worldwide.
I’m Keith Weinhold, this is Get Rich Education.
Even in the affluent United States, there is a large and growing population of vagrants - homeless people … more than half a million of them … and you & I … unknowingly play a role in keeping them homeless.
Why are people homeless? Well, the #1 reason is real estate-related. So that’s why I’m talking about it in the first of two show segments here.
Let’s look at the Top 5 cited reasons that people are homeless.
5th most common - Substance abuse - drugs. 4th - Mental illness. 3rd - Poverty ...OK, that’s sort of an obvious one. 2nd - Unemployment 1st - Lack of affordable housing
Lack of affordable housing is the #1 reason that people are homeless. Well, one mission here at GRE is that we PROVIDE society with affordable housing.
But, it’s generally not the same kind of Class D, lowest-end housing that there is - and that homeless people are looking to get into.
We focus on properties just below the median housing price in some of the lower-cost U.S. metros - B-class and C-Class. That’s a notch or two above where those on the brink of homelessness would be.
The homeless population is more visible in my own home city since the pandemic - and perhaps yours too … now that the unemployment rate is 10%.
I’m going to tell you what contributes to homelessness - and a lot of this has to do with real estate: contributors are carbon monoxide detectors, minimum wage, salamanders, NIMBYism, and over the long term: rent control.
Now, before we unpack that. Let’s define homelessness.
One of the better accepted definitions is - a condition where people lack "a fixed, regular, and adequate nighttime residence". That’s “homelessness defined”.
I think you & I can agree that “homeless” is not the best technical term - right? Because even if someone lives under a bridge, that IS their home.
Houselessness would actually be more accurate.
Vagrancy is an even better way to say it. A vagrant is a person without a settled home or regular work who wanders from place to place and lives by begging.
That’s what we’re really talking about here. But homelessness is the widely understood term, so I’m going to it.
Now, HUD - the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development has a lot of statistics on the homeless, and ...
… as of 2018, they reported there were roughly 553,000 homeless people in the United States on a given night,[2] or nearly two-tenths of 1% of the population.
That’s about 1 in 500 Americans then. Well, many people - me included - believe that the real number of homeless is greater than this 553,000.
In fact, private & local reports tell you that the homelessness have increased 40% per annum in recent years - yeah, 40% per year!
A big mistake is that people think about the homeless as all one type. But there are so many different types of homeless.
There are the temporary homeless - passing through that 553,000 number.
Some are voluntarily homeless. Others are really couch-surfing because perhaps they were in a divorce or domestic violence situation.
Then you need to realize that about 2/3rd of their population is sheltered, and ⅓ unsheltered.
Consider too, that there are at least 40,000 homeless veterans. To think that a person could have served this country - and maybe even risked their life for this country - but don’t have a home in this country … can be heartbreaking to think about.
Now, though I’m not sure, I don’t believe that a digital nomad would be considered among the homeless - the laptop entrepreneur that stays at a different AirBnB location, say monthly.
Before we bring in the real estate angle, let’s get some historical context. Just talking about the U.S. here ...
Homelessness emerged as a national issue in the 1870s.[6] Early homeless people lived in emerging urban cities, like New York City.
Into the 20th century, the Great Depression of the 1930s caused a substantial rise in unemployment and related social issues and distress and homelessness.
In the 21st century the financial crisis of 2008 and resulting economic stagnation and downturn has been a major driving factor and contributor to rising homelessness rates.
That is probably happening again, right now, in the COVID pandemic.
A Zillow report found that people in communities where the average renter spends more than 30 percent of their income on rent — meaning that they can be described as being “rent-burdened” — are particularly vulnerable to rapid increases in homelessness rates.
Eviction obviously creates homelessness.
Now, some naively think - can’t we just raise taxes to build permanent housing for them & move them all in there? I really doubt that that’s a viable long-term solution.
Because at some point, if taxpayer funded housing is just “provided” for people, then people don’t have incentive to work & pay the rent.
That’s in general. Right, maybe someone has a disability that prevents them from making a living.
Some think - maybe we SHOULD impose rent control. Rent control means capping the amount of rent that a landlord can charge.
I’ll tell ya - that could reduce the number of homeless people in some areas that HAVE enough housing. But long-term, rent control is a terrible plan.
Because now an income property owner like you has zero incentive to improve the property any longer.
Long-term, rent controlled areas fall into serious dilapidation.
And because homelessness is concentrated in inner cities. It’s those exact same big cities - like New York - that have tried rent control.
It doesn’t work. So many areas that have tried to impose it, have to repeal it, because it eventually turns areas into ghettos.
What if you own property in an area where rent control were imposed? Even if you did improve your property - not only would you NOT get more rent for it - but you had better believe that property owners all around you wouldn’t be improving their property … and the entire condition of the neighborhood would be on a loooong downhill slide.
You might remember that I devoted an episode to the rent control topic. You can look that up on Get Rich Education Episode 192 if you’re further interested there.
One factor that contributes to higher housing costs - which prices people out of having any shelter and creates more homeless people are … environmental regulations that limit development in certain areas.
Sometimes you need to leave a development buffer for streams or you can’t build in areas that are wetlands in order to protect flora and fauna.
A rare orchid, or a spotted salamander or a threatened egret or an endangered heron. They say, you can’t build in their critical habitat areas. You’ve got to protect them.
But yet, often, the same type of people that want more environmental regulations are the same people that say that they want more affordable housing options.
Well, when you limit where you can build, now you’ve reduced the housing supply. Real estate pricing is highly susceptible to supply/demand factors, of course.
All these wildlife protections limit supply. That makes prices go up. That prices people out.
Now, maybe you’re thinking I’m anti-environmentalist? No, I’m not taking a side either way.
It’s just that one needs to understand the cost and the longer-term ramifications of decisions that limit development in protecting the spotted salamander.
I think it’s easy to make a case that more biodiversity is better than less biodiversity. But the better question is: “At what cost should we protect species? How far do we take it?”
Environmental regulations in the United States are intended to improve the quality of the environment; preserve ecosystems - that includes wildlife; and protect human health too.
But these regulations are often written without considering how much they will cost.
Another contributor to homelessness is excessive safety regulations.
Again, some safety regulations are good. But how far do we take it?
My gosh, when an area needs to build more affordable housing for people - which is something that would reduce the homeless rate … and ...
Sheesh, a new home today might need fourteen smoke detectors and five carbon monoxide detectors … then the detectors need to be connected to each other so that they can communicate with each other … and all these devices and this added complexity increases the cost of housing.
That makes mortgage payments higher, rent payments higher, and it just prices more people out of the real estate market. The lower end of the income spectrum gets priced out of affordable shelter.
I’m not anti-safety. But at some point, one has got to ask the question, “How much safety do we really need?”
Even - “What is the cost of a human life?” There actually is an answer to that question. In fact, the EPA pegs the cost of a human life at $10M - one of the highest of any federal agency.
And then, there’s the entire question of how can you ever monetize the value of a human life. You can make the case … that it’s priceless. That’s a different discussion.
But the point is, all these safety regulations increase the cost of housing and increase homelessness.
Minimum wage does, in many instances, increase homelessness long-term.
This might come as a surprise to you. You would think that raising the minimum wage would have to DE-crease homelessness - because a higher wage would mean that low-income workers could now afford housing.
Well, long-term, besides higher wages in an area creating inflation & soon making the cost of everything go UP - including housing …
Think about it from the perspective of if you’re an employer & you have to pay your workers a higher wage - now that minimum wage is higher.
If someone that works for you makes $9 an hour - but they only produce $12 an hour worth of productivity for you...
And a new minimum wage of $15 an hour is implemented, you’re losing money if you retain that worker. So you would lay them off.
You would find ways to automate - or make a machine do the work that that employee used to do for you. That layoff increases homelessness.
Just look at the number of self-serve checkout kiosks in grocery stores. Those lanes used to be staffed by humans that earned a wage.
With a hike in the minimum wage up to $15 an hour, you’d begin to see a trend where more fast-food restaurants have self-serve kiosks. You’ll have fewer humans there.
That’s because some employers can’t afford to pay people $15 an hour. Every self-serve digital kiosk that you see represents a laid-off worker.
Talk to your parents or grandparents and they’ll tell you that gas stations used to be attended by humans that would pump your gas for you, check your tire pressure, check your fluid levels - that’s been gone for a couple generations.
Now, an increase in the minimum wage would help get some people out of homelessness short-term … yes.
I’m giving you insight so that you can see both sides & see the long-term consequences of government intervention into the free market.
Let’s say that you’re an employer at a warehouse, the minimum wage is $15 an hour and you want to hire someone to help you sweep floors & do odd maintenance jobs around this warehouse that you own.
Well, now it’s illegal for you to hire them at $12 an hour. You’d love to give a kid a job and help him learn - and you can’t make the numbers work at $15 an hour.
So now he’s unemployed because the government said, “No. You can’t hire him at $12 an hour.” That’s what a $15 minimum wage says. Try looking at it from that angle.
Another phenomenon that keeps people homeless is NIMBY - Not In My Backyard.
NIMBYists are the ones that say, “No, I don’t want you to build low-cost housing in my neighborhood, because I’m afraid that it’s going to ruin the character of my neighborhood and it’ll stifle the rate of home appreciation here.”
Lafayette, California is a wealthy San Francisco suburb. It is nestled in Contra Costa County, where its residents fight to stop what they call a "very urban," "unsightly" 315-unit housing development
It was recently profiled by The New York Times.
Over in the suburban community of Cupertino, California—we’re talking Silicon Valley now—local activists spent years trying to stop the development of an abandoned mall into apartments, half of which would be rented out to lower-income tenants at below-market rates. In Berkeley, California, activists often argue against new housing on the grounds that it will threaten their community's sustainable character. Well, what is another example of NIMBYism? At a recent Zoning Adjustment Board Meeting in Berkeley, I think one resident summarized NIMBYism really well - and this was published in the New York Times - they said "Berkeley needs to prioritize a livable, sustainable environment for people who already live here” … … when they were opposing a 57-unit development of student housing. They went on to say: "We are not obligated to sacrifice what is best about Berkeley to build dorm rooms." That’s the end of what they said. NIMBY - this “Not in My Backyard” opposition to new housing development - centers on concerns of property values and crime and gentrification and environmental sustainability. Even though it’s often not their intent, the result of NIMBYism is that less housing gets built, housing costs go up and homelessness … rises. So, let’s draw some conclusions here and look at some actionable ways that you can make things better.
Though it isn’t immediately apparent - carbon monoxide detectors, minimum wage, salamanders & egrets, rent control, and NIMBYism - all go right through the heart of real estate investing and contribute to the long-term cycle of homelessness.
A giant takeaway for you here, is that, what is the common denominator in ALL of these factors. There is one common theme.
You know what that is - it is Government intervention.
Government intervention and interference in the free market - is the contributor here - excessive safety, minimum wage, protecting salamanders & egrets, rent control, and NIMBYism.
Every single one of them.
And now, maybe if you’re a new Get Rich Education listener - especially - you might be wondering, am I some anti-government guy where I think that the answer to EVERYTHING is free market economics.
Well, though I think that less government would be better.
I’ll tell you that SOME government regulation is good - just less than what we have now.
For example, look at all the smoky, hazy pollution in Pittsburgh, PA in the 1970s. It was a hazard to your health just to walk Pittsburgh then.
You might have heard about this: famously, in the summer of 1969 - An oil slick in Ohio’s Cuyuhoga River caught on fire.
Companies were committing rampant pollution such that it was a hazard to human health. Well, government regulations like the Federal Clean Water Act Of 1972 helped to clean that up.
So, that regulation helped. Government has a role, but it’s often overly intrusive.
When it comes to you helping the homeless directly, I like the campaign slogan that says, “Give real change, not small change.”
That means, don’t give money directly to panhandlers on the street. Where do you think that your goes then? Probably straight to cheap monarch vodka in those plastic bottles.
Also, if you don’t want to see homeless people in your neighbourhood, don’t give to them if they’re on your city’s street corner - like they are mine - because you’ve just given them an incentive to show up there again & do the same thing.
So instead of small change, give real change. When you donate to your local homeless shelter or soup kitchen, your money is going to do MORE REAL GOOD for the homeless.
It’s going to provide them with shelter, or educational resources, or a computer so that they might be able to apply for a job. That’s real change.
You want to help the homeless? I think that’s great. That’s kind. Give real change, not small change.
When it comes to NIMBYism and the environment, there’s a great saying out there.
What do you call a developer – someone who wants to build a house. Well, what do you call an environmentalist – someone who already owns the house, [LAUGHING] because they don’t want anyone else to build there, right?
Well, we avoid investing in coastal areas here at Get Rich Education. They’re what I call the volatile markets - they have a history of more regulation, more rent control, and more laws that are disadvantageous to property owners.
Just more reason … as to why we invest in the U.S. Midwest & South. They’re what I call the stable markets.
You’re listening to Get Rich Education, Episode 306.
We are your source for independent groundbreaking, original content on really three main topics: real estate investing is what we major in - with minors in both wealth mindset, and real estate economics.
Get Rich Education is not affiliated with any large media conglomerate.
And we’re here to enrich you - and sometimes even rescue you & help you survive in this widening difference between the “haves” and “have nots” - that continues to broaden in pandemic times.
This show is also when you can find all your finance heroes - that have come onto the show to run alongside me for an episode.
Check our shows published over the years to find me here with the best-seller finance author of all-time Robert Kiyosaki, the world’s leading sales trainer Grant Cardone, global wealth mindset magnate T. Harv Eker, and other economic minds and thought leaders Jim Rogers, Jim Rickards, Sharon Lechter - all your favorite thought leaders are here on this show.
We have more of them coming onto the show in the future, including the upcoming Get Rich Education debut of success thought leader Hal Elrod and others.
There is so much real estate & economics news that the pandemic is providing to us ... more & faster than before.
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Again, What do you call a developer – someone who wants to build a house. What do you call an environmentalist – someone who already owns the house.
Kind of exciting next - A world class city where the real estate numbers actually make sense for you … straight ahead.
I’m Keith Weinhold. This is Get Rich Education.
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Mon, 10 August 2020
GDP fell 33% annually, the unemployment rate is high, and even the Tokyo Olympics have been postponed, all pandemic-driven. Housing continues to hold up well. Nearly all assets are - gold, stocks, crypto, and some commodities. This is partly due to a weaker dollar. The gap between “haves” and “have nots” widens in the pandemic. 15-year mortgage rates fell below 2%. VP of Grocapitus, Anna Myers joins us to discuss real estate trends, market analysis, and where to invest for economic survival. Neither she nor I see a “V-shaped recovery”. I’ve been saying this for five months. Anna & I discuss real estate’s winners and losers in the pandemic. With more people having shakier job situations, fewer qualify for loans. This increases the renter pool. Winners: smaller cities, suburbs, e-commerce, tech, warehouses, places like Salt Lake City, Raleigh-Durham, Memphis Losers: high density places, hospitality, medical, oil, long-term college. Resources mentioned: Mortgage Loans: QRPs: text “QRP” in ALL CAPS to 72000 or: By texting “QRP” to 72000 and opting in, you will receive periodic marketing messages from eQRP Co. Message & data rates may apply. Reply “STOP” to cancel. New Construction Turnkey Property: Best Financial Education: Top Properties & Providers: Follow us on Instagram: Keith’s personal Instagram:
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Mon, 3 August 2020
Income over $75K-$95K does not increase happiness. Earning over $105K actually decreases happiness. This is based on studies from Princeton and Purdue universities. Then what’s the point of building wealth? You get answers. These surveys do not consider replacing your active income with passive income. Matt Bowles of Maverick Investor Group joins us to discuss: market due diligence, pandemic changes, and how to use real estate to build lifestyle design. We also discuss changes to the rental market from 2007 to today. Ten years ago, you could buy properties for less than replacement cost. No longer. Markets like Phoenix, Dallas, and Atlanta have largely lost their investor-advantaged status. Check out Matt’s podcast, called: “The Maverick Show”. Resources mentioned: How Money Really Affects Your Happiness: Podcast on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, etc. Remote due diligence: Mortgage Loans: QRPs: text “QRP” in ALL CAPS to 72000 or: By texting “QRP” to 72000 and opting in, you will receive periodic marketing messages from eQRP Co. Message & data rates may apply. Reply “STOP” to cancel. New Construction Turnkey Property: Best Financial Education: Top Properties & Providers: Follow us on Instagram: Keith’s personal Instagram:
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