Get Rich Education

Is real estate cheap, adequately valued, or overpriced? I explore. 

Everything considered includes: inflation-adjusted price, affordability, quality, and other nations’ prices. 

Stadium trends are affecting urban real estate. More plan to move outside of downtowns.

I divide society into four groups of people. Then I discuss who is harmed by inflation and who benefits most:

1: The poor—lose

2: Paid-off homeowners—hedge

3: Mortgaged homeowners—hedge and profit

4: Mortgaged income property owners—hedge, profit, and increase income 

Learn how to talk to your tenant so that they never think “How the Rent Stole Christmas”. It’ll help ensure timely rent payments. Many tenants don’t understand that you have a mortgage to pay.

Finally, I reveal the exact percentage number that indicates GRE’s 2024 National Home Price Appreciation Forecast.

Timestamps:

Real Estate Valuation and Gold Ratio (00:02:53)

Explains the concept of using the home price to gold ratio as a measure of real estate value and compares it to the long-term average.

Global House Prices (00:05:28)

Discusses how US home prices are comparatively cheaper than those in other developed nations, such as Australia and Canada.

Impact of Quality on Real Estate Value (00:06:40)

Highlights the increase in home size, amenities, and safety features over time, suggesting that today's homes offer more value at a potentially lower inflation-adjusted price compared to the past.

The trend of sports complexes with casinos (00:12:15)

The speaker discusses the trend of building sports complexes with casinos, mentioning examples such as Mark Cuban's plan for a new Mavs arena and the proposed entertainment complex and casino next to Citi Field.

The necessity of a second job due to inflation (00:13:36)

The speaker explains why inflation makes a second job necessary, emphasizing the importance of investing money at a rate higher than inflation to maintain prosperity and quality of life.

The four groups and their relationship with inflation (00:14:46)

The speaker categorizes four groups of people based on their ownership of property and how they are affected by inflation, highlighting the benefits and disadvantages each group experiences.

The Landlord-Tenant Relationship (00:24:22)

Discussion on maintaining open lines of communication with tenants and addressing misconceptions about landlords being greedy.

Explaining Property Expenses (00:25:37)

Informing tenants about the various expenses that landlords have to cover, such as mortgage, insurance, taxes, and maintenance.

Forecasting Home Price Appreciation (00:29:04)

Discussing past predictions and forecasts for future home price appreciation, including insights from various agencies and factors influencing prices such as housing supply and interest rates.

Home price appreciation forecast (00:35:22)

Keith Weinhold discusses his forecast for home price appreciation for the next year, which he predicts to be 4%.

Investment decisions based on forecast (00:36:51)

Keith Weinhold mentions that people are increasingly making investment decisions based on forecasts, but reminds listeners that forecasts are not guarantees.

Resources mentioned:

Show Notes:

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Complete episode transcript:

 

Speaker 1 (00:00:01) - Welcome to GRE! I'm your host, Keith Weinhold. Today is real estate underpriced, adequately priced or overpriced? All outline a hierarchy of winners and losers with inflation in real estate. How the rent stole Christmas. Then the verdict is in as I reveal GRE’s 2024 home price appreciation forecast all today on Get Rich education. When you want the best real estate and finance info. The modern internet experience limits your free articles access, and it's replete with paywalls. And you've got pop ups and push notifications and cookies. Disclaimers are. At no other time in history has it been more vital to place nice, clean, free content into your hands that actually adds no hype value to your life? See, this is the golden age of quality newsletters, and I write every word of hours myself. It's got a dash of humor and it's to the point to get the letter. It couldn't be more simple. Text grey to 66866. And when you start the free newsletter, you'll also get my one hour fast real estate course completely free.

 

Speaker 1 (00:01:18) - It's called the Don't Quit Your Day dream letter and it wires your mind for wealth. Make sure you read it. Text grey to 66866. Text grey 266866.

 

Speaker 2 (00:01:35) - You're listening to the show that has created more financial freedom than nearly any show in the world. This is get rich education.

 

Speaker 1 (00:01:51) - Welcome to GRE! From North Pole, New York, to North Pole, Alaska, and across 188 nations worldwide. I'm Keith Weinhold, and you're listening to Get Rich Education on Christmas. Happy holidays. Today is real estate cheap? Adequately valued or overpriced? Well, to many it doesn't feel like a relative bargain today, when you see how much housing prices and payments have escalated these past three years. There are a lot of ways to approach the question about whether today's U.S. real estate is cheap, adequately priced, or overpriced, so let's approach them. But when you ponder that question, didn't dollars quickly come to mind? Well, the median home price is $431,000 today, depending on how you slice it. Let's not be quick to forget that when you're looking for a measuring stick to determine the value of real estate or anything, dollars are an exceedingly poor way to track value.

 

Speaker 1 (00:02:53) - Because also, starting about three years ago, their slow, steady debasement turned into a rapid debasement and dilution of purchasing power. Dollars keep getting so relentlessly debased that, well, of course, it would take substantially more of those dollars to buy most anything today than it did three years ago. Property included. And this is precisely why the car that you own today costs more dollars than your grandparents first home did. Okay, so let's cancel out dollars. For 5000 years, gold has had enduring value. It's been a loose barometer for inflation all that time. As the dollar goes down, it takes more of them to buy the same amount of gold. So rather than pricing the home in dollars, wouldn't it make more sense to use the home price to gold ratio? Yeah, that is just what it sounds like. Instead of comparing home prices to dollars, compare it to how many ounces of gold it takes to buy a home and track that over time. Well, we find out that today it only takes about half as many ounces of gold to buy a home today as the long term average.

 

Speaker 1 (00:04:12) - And that's dating all the way back to the year 1889, yet just half as many. Yeah, that is a data set in the past 130 plus years, when you take the long term average of how many ounces of gold it takes to buy a median single family home, realize how special this comparison is. You now see the value of two of the most popular real assets relative to each other. All right, so home prices now appear low since it takes just 50% as much gold to buy a home today. But isn't that measure right there in itself enough evidence to say that real estate is under priced? No, that's certainly not. But it is one powerful touch point. We need more than that. Consider global house prices. So much of the world is a renter nation compared to the US, because home prices are substantially higher in other developed nations, from Australia to Canada, Canadian home prices are still nearly double the price of the same US home. This is a second powerful measure that US home prices are cheap here in the middle of the 2020s decade.

 

Speaker 1 (00:05:28) - Well, let's add some more. Consider affordability. Can people afford homes? Well, there is wage growth, which often lags home price growth in, you know, your wage growth. It often lags inflation until the latter part of an inflationary cycle like where we could be now. But let's look at what really happens. Most people don't buy property based on its price as much as its monthly payment. It's the affordability of that payment that most people are looking at. Today's mortgage rates, though, they don't feel low because of where we were a few years ago. Like I mentioned here on the show before, mortgage rates are still below their long run average of 7.7%. This is another important measure of how real estate prices in America today are not overpriced. But what I'm going to do now is turn the prism in another direction here so that the sunlight strikes it differently. Let's shine the light somewhere else, because we still have not adjusted for something extremely important. When you're valuing real estate or anything for that matter.

 

Speaker 1 (00:06:40) - Let's look at the attribute of quality. Yes, we need to adjust for quality since 1889. And. An ounce of gold is just still that same ounce of gold. Its physical properties have not changed one bit since the year 1889, which is one reason why it's a good measuring stick and why I brought it up earlier. But in 1889, let's look at real estate. It has changed to an astounding degree. A new Victorian style home back then had sparse amenities and perhaps 950ft². And yet that was a normal sized home back in that era. In 2023, a home average 2415ft² in today's home has features that would be considered unthinkable luxuries yesteryear like air conditioning, multiple bathrooms, quartz kitchen countertops and closets vast enough that you could play pickleball inside them so you're getting more, more home today. Between today's home size, lot size, amenities, and safety features, you can make the case that you're getting five x more, or perhaps even ten x more home than you were in 1889. And you're getting that perhaps even at a lower inflation adjusted price.

 

Speaker 1 (00:08:13) - And the more you realize all of this, you can increasingly validate asking the question, why are homes still so cheap in America today? And there are some other factors too. But all things considered, one can surely make the case that today's US residential real estate is not overpriced. It's cheap. As we're talking about the relative valuation of homes today. Here's a hint this plays into when I'll reveal Gary's 2024 home price depreciation forecast at the end of the show today, where I will pin the projected appreciation number down to the nearest whole percent for you. That's how exact we're going to get before we talk about residential real estate again. When we discuss how the Reds stole Christmas, let's discuss a niche of the commercial real estate market here that we've never discussed that Gary, before. And it's so interesting whether you are a sports fan like me or you're not. And that is stadiums. Yes, sports stadiums have a lot to do with urban real estate dynamics, and they're even more important amidst this struggling office sector that's already hollowing out parts of some downtowns.

 

Speaker 1 (00:09:30) - Well, the reason that I'm telling you about this with stadiums is that it looks like a new trend now. About 30 years ago, there was a trend toward having urban stadiums beginning to use these great city skylines or old historic buildings as backdrops. Everyone points to Camden Yards in Baltimore in the 1990s as kicking off the urban real estate ballpark trend. All right, we'll fast forward 30 years to today. Earlier this month, Ted Leonsis, the owner of the NBA's Wizards basketball team and the NHL's capitals hockey team, both in Washington, DC. They announced the deal to move both teams from downtown D.C. across state lines to Alexandria, Virginia, although at last check no official documents had been signed. So, yes, moving them out of the central city, the move looks like a huge win for Virginia. By the way, it's the most populous state without any big league sports teams. That's where the two teams could play. At the heart of a new proposed $2 billion, 12 acre entertainment complex as soon as 2028.

 

Speaker 1 (00:10:46) - But it is a huge bummer for the nation's capital. Yes, Washington, D.C. it has one of the highest rates of people working remotely in the US, so that hollows out the urban core. DC's once buzzing downtown is still struggling to recover post-Covid. Now, DC Mayor Muriel Bowser, who has made a last minute offer to Leonsis to keep the teams right there in the city, faces the potential loss of two major fan bases and a sports hub. It's right there in the city's Chinatown area. Yeah, this could be a new trend in stadiums in shaping the complexion of urban real estate. Now Leonsis is playing for Virginia. That really places him, among other billionaire franchise owners that want to build these massive entertainment complexes near their teams in order to capitalize on this growing synergy between sporting events and other nightlife and entertainment, and part of what's really going on here. Is the legalization and the spreading of sports gambling. That's the big prize that some other franchise owners are chasing a casino as part of this complex next to the stadium, and oftentimes you're going to have to move the team out of the city center to build these big multi acre complexes that will surround the sports stadium.

 

Speaker 1 (00:12:15) - Earlier this month, Dallas Mavericks owner Mark Cuban he came one step closer to his dream of building a new Mavs arena in the middle of a resort and casino after he struck a deal to sell his majority stake of the team to a casino mogul named Miriam Adelson. In November, New York Mets owner Steve Cohen, along with hard Rock international, they proposed an $8 billion entertainment complex and casino to be built next to Citi Field. These are major urban projects, so this trend of sports complexes with casinos is really picking up in the nation, but not absolutely everywhere in Oklahoma City. There is an exception there. In OKC, voters approved a good old fashioned 1% sales tax for the next six years to fund the construction of a new downtown arena for the OKC Thunder, and with that agreement, the Thunder could stay in OKC through 2050. We're talking about how a trend worth tracking in urban real estate is stadiums leaving downtowns. Now, one reason that I often talk about the power of inflation ravaging most people's lives here on gray is because it's so bad that it means you need a second job.

 

Speaker 1 (00:13:36) - Yes, you do not in the traditional sense. But look, if you are, say, during the day, a corporate attorney or you're a financial systems analyst or you're a crab fisherman, why can't you just do a really good job at your day job in that position and then go home and at the end of the week, call it good enough? Why can't you just do that? Well, you cannot do that because if you're being paid in dollars, your second job is learning how to invest those dollars at a rate higher than inflation. Otherwise, your prosperity gets diminished in your one quality of life and one set of opportunities are going to suffer. That's why inflation makes a second job a necessity. So your second job is investing. The other reason that I often discuss this topic is because, as we know, real estate helps you profit from inflation three ways at the same time. Two weeks ago I told you that if you want to learn more about how that works with the Inflation Triple Crown, that you can go to get rich education.

 

Speaker 1 (00:14:46) - Com slash Triple Crown to watch my free three part video series, I did that because I've described the inflation Triple Crown here on the show before, and I don't want to be too repetitive, but seeing that it is an enduring great principle. I've got a new way to explain this to you. Whether you're a long time listener or a newer one, then you're going to get some perspective out of this. I think you're really going to like it. What we're going to do is let's look here at four groups of people and see how much they benefit from or lose to inflation. We're going to view this through a real estate lens. Let's go from the worst off group to the best off group. And then what you can do is see which one of these four groups you belong to. The first group are the poor. They don't own any property and therefore they don't benefit from inflation one bit. This first group, the poor, their grocery and energy expenses are exacerbated by inflation, but yet they have no assets to benefit from it if they have a job.

 

Speaker 1 (00:15:54) - But the poor tend to have the job type wage that lags inflation, so the poor lose to inflation. The second group. So getting a little better off as we move through here. They are the primary residence homeowner with a paid off mortgage. So they benefit from one crown of the inflation triple Crown, yet they are better off. Two of every five homeowners have a paid off mortgage, just like this second group does here. And if there's 10% inflation over, oh, a couple years, well then there are 500 K home price floats up to 550 K and now they got 10% more dollars. But each one's worth 10% less. So at least they didn't lose purchasing power. But they are right back where they started. So this homeowner with the paid off mortgage does not profit from inflation. They are merely hedged. Then we have the third group out of four. This third group is homeowners. Again, just primary residence owners with a mortgage. Yep. They're actually better off than Group two with the paid off mortgage.

 

Speaker 1 (00:17:04) - Just in terms of who benefits from inflation. So like the second group, 10% inflation makes this third group's 500 K home rise to 550 K. But this mortgaged homeowner has another benefit. There are 400 K mortgage on this property, gets water down to just 360 K of inflation adjusted debt. And that is because inflation makes salaries and wages and prices and rents float higher, making the debt easier to pay back over time. Banks and lenders don't ask you to repay them with inflation adjusted debt, they will accept your diluted future dollars. It's like they got you locked in to a contract that was good for you years earlier. That effect is called debt debasement. And this is why this third group now benefits from two crowns as primary residence homeowner with the mortgage. And then come on, you know who this fourth group is? The coup de gras landing, the deathblow to inflation because they really make out in profit, benefiting from all three crowns. This fourth group owns income property with a mortgage. If you listen to this show, you're constantly trying to add more income property with a mortgage.

 

Speaker 1 (00:18:30) - And that's precisely what we hope you do here in gray. And this fourth group has both asset inflation like the second group and the debt debasement benefit like the third group. And additionally the rent income will outpace inflation enriching them. Now listen to this part closely for just a minute or two because the math is simple. But there are a few numbers here. Say you begin with $2,000 of monthly rent income on your rental property, minus your $1,200 mortgage, -$600 of expenses. That's $200 a monthly positive cash flow left over. All right. We're going to add 10% inflation on all that. And this inflation could happen in one year or over a number of years like magic. Now you've got $2,200 of rent income up from 2000 minus that same $1,200 mortgage balance because it stays fixed, -$660 of expenses, up from 600. All right. You're now left with $340 of cash flow. That's up from 200 bucks before the inflation. Do you understand the significance of this? Do you see how you're really on the superhighway to financial freedom? This is big because the mortgage principal and interest payment stays fixed with just 10% inflation.

 

Speaker 1 (00:19:58) - You just saw the money you feel in your pocket each month skyrocket from $200 to $340. In that example, that's 70% more income, 70% more. Extrapolate that effect across your entire rental portfolio. Wow. That is called cash flow enhancement. The third and final crown of the inflation Triple Crown. You just won all three with a loan on an income property. And hey, congratulations. If you caught that and you would have had to skip back to listen again, you are really on your way to understanding a path for creating wealth in your life. Now. I sure kept that example general in order to simplify things. And also some people span multiple groups. For example, poor people in terms of income could still be homeowners. Let's review what you just learned there. With inflation in real estate, the poor lose paid off, homeowners hedge, mortgaged homeowners hedge in profit mortgages income property owners hedge profit and increase income. So look and this is kind of weird. Once you've got income property, you might notice that the price for a pound of salmon rises from 1599 up to 1899, or that a Ford F-150 truck price spikes from 50 K up to 55 K over time, these could actually be strangely positive signs.

 

Speaker 1 (00:21:40) - It's a soft indicator that your real estate wealth is growing, though people would think you're nuts. I mean, you might secretly start. Rooting for inflation as avidly as an NFL Philadelphia Eagles Tailgater. Now, I'm not really sure if you'll pump your fist after the first time that you pay 12 bucks for a gallon of gas. We'll see about that. Well, hey, now that you've done the hard learning coming up straight ahead, a little more entertaining here how the rent stole Christmas and the anticipated 2024 Jerry housing price appreciation forecast. I'm Keith Weiner. You're listening to episode 481 of get Rich education. Role under the specific expert with income property, you need Ridge lending Group and MLS for 256. In gray history, from beginners to veterans, they provided our listeners with more mortgages than anyone. It's where I get my own loans for single family rentals up to four Plex's. Start your pre-qualification and chat with President Charlie Ridge personally. They'll even customize a plan tailored to you for growing your portfolio. Start at Ridge Lending group.com Ridge lending group.com.

 

Speaker 1 (00:23:00) - You know, I'll just tell you, for the most passive part of my real estate investing, personally, I put my own dollars with Freedom Family Investments because their funds pay me a stream of regular cash flow in returns are better than a bank savings account up to 12%. Their minimums are as low as 25 K. You don't even need to be accredited for some of them. It's all backed by real estate and that kind of love. How the tax benefit of doing this can offset capital gains in your W-2 jobs income. And they've always given me exactly their stated return paid on time. So it's steady income, no surprises while I'm sleeping or just doing the things I love. For a little insider tip, I've invested in their power fund to get going on that text family to 66866. Oh, and this isn't a solicitation. If you want to invest where I do, just go ahead and text family to six, 686, six.

 

Speaker 3 (00:24:04) - This is Ridge Lending Group's president, Shale Ridge. Listen to get Rich education with Keith Wine.

 

Speaker 3 (00:24:10) - Hold and remember don't quit your daydream.

 

Speaker 1 (00:24:22) - Welcome back to get Rich education. I'm your host, Keith Reinhold. Be friendly, not friends. Those four words are the best concise guidance for how a landlord should keep their relationship with tenants. But there's a persistent school of thought out there among some in the general public. And it is that landlords are greedy. Landlords like you even want rent on January 1st. Who do you think you are, the Grinch that stole Christmas? Well, as a landlord, of course, you should maintain open lines of communication with your tenants if you're also managing them. When it comes to things like those top priorities, I mean repair and maintenance issues. But when I've had conversations with tenants and by the way, I don't anymore, my property managers do. Let me share with you some pieces that I have gently inserted into my conversations with tenants in regard to rent collection. This has done a lot to ensure timely payments, and they've always known then that my intent is not to steal Christmas.

 

Speaker 1 (00:25:37) - I see a lot of tenants. They're smart people, but they just don't understand your situation as an income property owner, often with a mortgage on your rental property, many tenants think that you just take their rent payment of, say, $1,800 and that that money is all yours for, say, a big Hawaiian vacation. You and I both know that most of that rent income is spoken for and already passed along for your expenses. One thing that you can tell tenants is, I have a big mortgage on this property to pay every month. That's what you tell them. Younger tenants are less likely to know this at all. Another thing that you can say is 90 to 95% of the rent goes toward all the property expenses, which are always going up. Yeah. I mean, these are your mortgage, insurance, property tax, maintenance, repairs, turnover, utilities and more. That's what I've called mortgage plus vim. Tom expenses, vim Thomas vacancy insurance, maintenance, taxes, utilities and management. Yeah.

 

Speaker 1 (00:26:47) - Even with the decently cash flowing mortgage rental, this statement is true. 90 to 95% of that rent is gone. It's not yours. Another thing you can tell tenants is I'll be in debt all my life. That's another thing you can mention. And of course, you and I both know that that's good debt. Another thing that you can say to tenants, and really, this is just something else that could be said to broader society that thinks that landlords are greedy. And you can say this, I build up my credit score, made a big down payment and put my money at risk. That's what you say? Yep. Ian, you did all this to provide good housing to strangers. How is that greedy? You can also just simply say I don't have a 401 K, and the more you listen to this show, the more you would ask yourself, why would you want one? And I'll leave you with this last one. I must constantly maintain this property. That's what you say, and you should constantly maintain that property.

 

Speaker 1 (00:27:52) - Now, you probably only need to bring up 1 or 2 of those sentences with tenants. The best time for you to do it is actually. Just before they're officially attendants. Say those things right at the beginning of the relationship. When you're just reviewing the lease, when you're going over that with them and they're about to sign that initial lease. Or you could also mention this months later when they pay the ongoing rent. So this is about your ongoing tenant relations. So they understand your situation. They're going to know that you're a human and you have your own set of issues in financial obligations and you have to take care of. And it's always about telling the truth. Only a Grinch would lie during the holidays. So it's always about being honest and informative. And, you know, with all of that said, it is somewhat of a paradox that all of this can be true. And yet at the same time, strategically bought property is so profitable on your side and see with your tenants, this is not the optimum time to wax poetic about how financially free beats debt free.

 

Speaker 1 (00:29:04) - Yes, it's really remarkable that all these statements can be true, even if 90 to 95% of your written income goes toward your mortgage and operating expenses, all while real estate pays five ways at the same time. And now they'll know that the rent they pay is not the rent. It's still Christmas, and you sure are not the Grinch. Let me prepare you for Gary's National Home Price Appreciation Forecast for 2024. First things first how well have past predictions performed? Well, let's take a look at this using the Nars number of median existing single family home prices. Understand that the forecast that I make here is always made near the end of the year, prior to the year forecast. It's all done ahead of time and unlike a lot of agencies, we don't revise our forecast later. It's all set in stone before the forecast year begins in late 2021. Recall that we had just come off a year there, 2021, when national home prices were up 20%, and some people predicted that prices would fall in 2022.

 

Speaker 1 (00:30:12) - Oh no. I let you know in late 2021 that home prices were going to rise a healthy 9 to 10% for 2022. That was the forecasts made at the time, and the result was 10%. Then late last year, you had more agencies predict that prices would fall. I let you know. I did not see how with such low housing supply and some of the other reasons. So I forecast 0% for this year. Yeah. Forecast, no gain, no loss. And as far as the result there it is too early to know yet. The year isn't done. All right. We'll build some context here as I make the reveal the forecast for next year. How about other agencies. What are they forecasting for next year. At last check, the NBA mortgage Bankers Association says home prices will rise 4%. Fannie Mae 3%, Freddie Mac 3%. The HP's. That is the home price expectation survey. They forecast 2% appreciation. Goldman Sachs also 2%. The Na 1%. Zillow 0%. Realtor.com -2%.

 

Speaker 1 (00:31:23) - If you take all of those and average them, you get a forecast of about 1.5% appreciation for next year. I'll tell you as we lead up to our forecast here, I'll let you know that it is not that close to the 1.5% average from those agencies. And none of those figures understand, including mine, are inflation adjusted. So nominal prices. All right. Well let's look at what we use to determine the trajectory of home prices. How is housing supply looking. We know demand is strong. Well with the fed active listing count data that I usually use where the normal supply is 1.5 million units or more will. The current amount is about 750,000. So it has rebounded somewhat, but it's still less than half of what's needed. And this dearth of supply supports more upward prices. Let's look at interest rates. Recent developments from the last fed meeting show us that Jerome Powell does not plan to put a rate hike lump of coal in your Christmas stocking now or anytime soon. Everyone wants to talk about how far rates are going to fall next year.

 

Speaker 1 (00:32:40) - But here's the thing to remember. Like I've discussed before, mortgage rates hardly matter when it comes to prices. They don't have much to do with housing prices at all, and I've discussed why a few times before. In short, that is because when rates rise, yes, it hurts affordability, but rates also rise when the fed is trying to cool a hot economy in that hot economy is what helps prices. Conversely, when rates fall, it helps affordability. But unemployment is higher and we might be in a recession when rates are falling and that constrains upward prices. You know something even real estate agents in the certification course, they have to take in those ongoing agent continuing education classes. They're taught that higher mortgage rates mean falling prices, but yet in reality, they almost never do. Just look at history. She she don't have to look any further than the last few years. Rates tripled and prices rose anyway. So when an agent prepares a CMA, a comparative market analysis for a client, agents are taught to consider mortgage rates with CMAs because higher rates put downward pressure on house prices.

 

Speaker 1 (00:33:58) - Yeah. Agents are taught that mortgage rates determine buying power, but they aren't taught the entire economic picture like I just briefly explained. So the point is that the direction of mortgage rates are not completely, but they're actually largely irrelevant in forecasting prices. Four out of every ten homeowners in this nation are free and clear with no mortgage. And among those that do have a mortgage 62. None of them still have a rate under 4%. All right. So if mortgage rates do drop next year from 7% to 6%, it still doesn't become that attractive for those homeowners locked in at that really low rate to sell. And yet if rates do fall to 6%, you're going to have a larger buyer pool because more people can now qualify to buy a home. Looking at the broader economy. Jobs are still being added, but many are part time jobs and GDP growth is strong. Unemployment is under 4%, CPI inflation, that's near 3%. So I'm not going to be full speed ahead with a huge number for next year's appreciation rate, because the economy, it still has a pretty substantial chance of slowing down because all these pass rate increases, lag effects could show, but that won't totally break the economy.

 

Speaker 1 (00:35:22) - And note something Fannie, Freddie, and FHA, they all announced higher conforming loan limits for 2024, and that's because they expect that more home price appreciation is coming. And I do too. We're a show about rental income. So what do I forecast? Prices rather than rents anyway? Well, there's a few reasons rents are more stable, so there's not as much to talk about that 15% year over year rent increase from last year that is seriously atypical. Also, as you are leveraged, you're going to get more overall gain from price appreciation than you do rents. As everything that I discussed and more has been weighed and analyzed in sprinkling in the spice of my personal experience as a direct real estate investor, I am happy to report to you here on the last show of the year that my expected home price appreciation rate for next year is 4%. Yes, a pretty historically normal 4% for next year. As the forecasts for the previous couple years, they saw more anomalous numbers, of course. What's that mean to you, the savvy leveraged investor? If you make a 25% down payment on a property, meaning you're leveraged 4 to 1 as best I can see it, you will then have a 16% return on your invested capital.

 

Speaker 1 (00:36:51) - Just as one of up to five ways that you're simultaneously paid. Increasingly, people make investment decisions based on the forecast any reasonable person should know. But I then be remiss not to remind you that this is a forecast, not a guarantee. Is this is the last show of the year. I trust that you've got even more to be grateful for than the expected 4% home price appreciation. I am sincerely grateful to have you as a listener this week, every week, and for another year here, as I'm sure you'll understand that I recorded this episode a few days before Christmas so that I could have a free and clear holiday. Best wishes on the remainder of your holiday season. I'll be back next week. Right on cue to talk about investing in a new way that you've never thought about before. May all of your New Year's resolutions be as successful as the home price forecast. Uh, until then, happy holidays to you and yours. I'm Keith Reinhold. Don't quit your daydream.

 

Speaker 4 (00:37:56) - Nothing on this show should be considered specific, personal or professional advice.

 

Speaker 4 (00:38:00) - Please consult an appropriate tax, legal, real estate, financial or business professional for individualized advice. Opinions of guests are their own. Information is not guaranteed. All investment strategies have the potential for profit or loss. The host is operating on behalf of get Rich education LLC exclusively.

 

Speaker 1 (00:38:24) - The preceding program was brought to you by your home for wealth building. Get rich education.com.




Direct download: GREepisode481_.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 4:00am EDT

Most people float through life without direction. You must get clarity of focus before you can even begin setting goals.

Robert Helms of The Real Estate Guys, a professional real estate investor, reveals a framework for goal-setting. 

Goals should be SMART—Specific, Measurable, Attainable, Relevant, and Time-Based.

I provide examples of two athletic goals that I failed to achieve this year.

It’s vital to surround yourself with the right people.

Goals should be written down. It helps to set intermediate benchmarks within the goal.

It’s difficult to stretch more than 50% from year-to-year. Keep the goal achievable.

Is your life destined or is your life made? Our recent Instagram Poll result is that 75% chose “destined”, 25% “made”.

You can attend the highly-rated Goals Retreat, hosted by Robert Helms, January 12th to 14th in Dallas, Texas.

You’ll learn how to get clear on who you really are and really want to be, then set goals.

Timestamps:

Setting Goals and Achieving Growth (00:02:40)

Keith Weinhold discusses the importance of setting clear goals and the need to step out of one's comfort zone for personal growth.

The Influence of Others on Goal Setting (00:08:01)

Robert Helms emphasizes the impact of surrounding oneself with the right people and being strategic about the influences in one's life.

The SMART Goal Framework (00:09:44)

Keith Weinhold mentions the SMART goal framework as a well-known framework for setting goals and achieving success.

Setting SMART Goals (00:10:03)

The speaker discusses the SMART goal framework and how it helps in setting specific, measurable, attainable, relevant, and time-based goals.

The Importance of Specific and Measurable Goals (00:11:08)

The speaker emphasizes that goals need to be specific and measurable in order to track progress and determine success.

Breaking Down Outcome Goals into Activity Goals (00:13:56)

The speaker explains the importance of breaking down outcome goals into specific steps or activity goals to make them more achievable and actionable.

Discover Your Destiny (00:19:40)

Discussion on the belief in destiny and the importance of clarity in goal setting.

Success Stories (00:21:14)

Examples of individuals who have achieved success and life satisfaction through goal setting and clarity.

The Importance of Clarity (00:26:30)

The significance of clarity in goal setting and the initial steps to take before setting goals.

The assessment of personal skills (00:28:38)

Discussion on the importance of assessing one's skills and areas for improvement in personal development.

The goals retreat (00:30:12)

Information about an in-person event called the goals retreat, where participants can focus on setting and achieving their goals.

The structure of the goals retreat (00:30:59)

Details about the schedule and activities of the goals retreat, including journaling, answering questions, and turning goals into action plans.

Resources mentioned:

Show Notes:

GetRichEducation.com/480

Attend the Jan. 12th-14th Goals Retreat:

GoalsRetreat.com

For access to properties or free help with a

GRE Investment Coach, start here:

GREmarketplace.com

Get mortgage loans for investment property:

RidgeLendingGroup.com or call 855-74-RIDGE 

or e-mail: info@RidgeLendingGroup.com

Invest with Freedom Family Investments. 

You get paid first: Text FAMILY to 66866

Will you please leave a review for the show? I’d be grateful. Search “how to leave an Apple Podcasts review” 

Top Properties & Providers:

GREmarketplace.com

GRE Free Investment Coaching:

GREmarketplace.com/Coach

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GetRichEducation.com

Get our wealth-building newsletter free—

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Our YouTube Channel:

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Follow us on Instagram:

@getricheducation

Keith’s personal Instagram:

@keithweinhold

 

Complete episode transcript:

 

Keith Weinhold (00:00:01) - Welcome to GRE. I'm your host, Keith Weinhold. Today's episode is rated PG for personal growth. Most people just float through life with hopes and wishes that are never realized, because they never turned those ambitions into concrete goals. How do you get clarity of mission, vision, and values before you set the right goals for yourself? It's a transformative episode today with a terrific guest on get Rich education. When you want the best real estate and finance info. The modern internet experience limits your free articles access, and it's replete with paywalls. And you've got pop ups and push notifications and cookies. Disclaimers are. At no other time in history has it been more vital to place nice, clean, free content into your hands that actually adds no hype value to your life? See, this is the golden age of quality newsletters, and I write every word of ours myself. It's got a dash of humor and it's to the point to get the letter. It couldn't be more simple. Text grey to 66866. And when you start the free newsletter, you'll also get my one hour fast real estate course completely free.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:01:18) - It's called the Don't Quit Your Day dream letter and it wires your mind for wealth. Make sure you read it. Text grey to 66866. Text grey 266866.

 

Corey Coates (00:01:36) - You're listening to the show that has created more financial freedom than nearly any show in the world. This is get rich education.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:01:52) - Welcome to GRE! From Toms River, New Jersey, to Hood River, Oregon, and across 188 nations worldwide. I'm Keith Weinhold and you are tuned in to get rich education. Now, why do you live the almost same routine that you live day in and day out? How are you spending your highest order in finite resource of your time? Maybe you're intentional, and maybe you don't really enjoy shoveling your snow or mowing your lawn all that much, but you do it just because it's the way that you've always done things, but at the cost of what higher order activities could you instead fill with that time? And that's exactly what a lot of people have never explored. I know that today's guest and I both admire the Robert Heinlein quote.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:02:40) - In the absence of clearly defined goals, we become strangely loyal to performing daily trivia until ultimately we become enslaved by it. One other axiom that I find so frustratingly inconvenient, because it's simultaneously true, is that your growth happens outside of your comfort zone. So then you've got to get comfortable being uncomfortable. And once you do enough of that, you'll become so enamored of growth that you'll soon find yourself being uncomfortable when you get comfortable. The best version of you. It means constantly disrupting yourself. Well that's disruptive. Now, within real estate, I've had various goals, and you might too. If you work at a dissatisfying day job, you might have a passive cash flow goal through real estate so that you can replace your job income. That's a pretty common one. Now, when I made my first ever property, that first fourplex, I didn't have much of a financial goal then. I just knew that I was effectively living for free, supplemented by the other three rent incomes. And when I first bought that building, I didn't even know what cashflow meant.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:03:57) - But once I did snowballing my cash flows became a goal until I could use that to replace my day job. Once that was achieved, the goal became how many doors can I control? Because that's a measure of service and influence. And today, one strong real estate goal is reaching more people like you with this very show right here today, we're talking to an expert at setting goals and helping you live the life that you were meant to live. He has had a deep influence on me and my growth. In fact, if it weren't for him, Jerry might not even exist and you would not have even heard of me. That's how much. Let's talk about setting and achieving goals to get the outcome that you want for your life. Today's guest is a professional real estate investor with experience in nine states and six nations, and I have toured some of that property with him in person internationally. He is also taught real estate practices and appraisal at the college level, but you might know him as the host of the nationally syndicated radio show The Real Estate Guys, now in its 27th year of broadcast.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:05:10) - You know that I've recommended that show to you, the listener, today. It's great to give a warm welcome back to Robert Helms.

 

Robert Helms (00:05:19) - Hey, Keith. So good to see you.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:05:21) - Robert. It's good to see you too. But we're not here today to talk so much about real estate, because a lot of people use real estate to fuel their other goals in life outside the real estate world, you brought a keen awareness to the fact that most people just kind of go floating through life without any real direction. And I think we're all aware, Robert, that there is a gap between who we are and the most that we can be. So can you talk to us about how finding our trajectory can perhaps be an exercise in connecting these dots that we call goals?

 

Robert Helms (00:05:58) - Yeah, I love this topic, as you know, because if we're left to our own devices, human nature is we're just going to bounce from thing to thing, like a boat without a rudder. And we get excited about something and it's a shiny object and we go off and pursue that.

 

Robert Helms (00:06:11) - And maybe real estate is that thing for you. And then, you know, you've got all the rest of your life to contend with. And whether you're a full time real estate investor or a part time real estate investor, I've found that one of the great keys to be able to discipline yourself, to do the things necessary to get the results you want in your life, is to set goals. And goal setting is pretty simple, but at the same time, it's almost alarmingly simple because if it seems too easy, people don't do it right. And the crux of goal setting is to figure out what you want, and then put that down in a way that you can be driven towards the things you have to do to make those things happen.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:06:52) - Maybe before we talk more about ourselves and what each of us really wants, maybe we can talk about what we don't want. And so many of us, me included, are influenced in life by the people that we surround ourselves with. You and I are both familiar with the quote from the late business philosopher Jim Rohn.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:07:11) - You are the average of the five people that you spend the most time with. A lot of people probably wouldn't like to admit it, but the statistics are kind of alarming with how much time one spends around their co-workers versus how much time spends around their family and friends, and with influences from co-workers. And that temptation to maybe just go with the flow. You know, it's pretty interesting because your coworkers are not chosen by you. They're chosen by your employer. Now, maybe that's good because it opens you up to a new set of ideas and a new context for your life, and that might adjust the goals you set. But then on the other side, if you don't have that and you don't have those coworkers, maybe those coworkers can help keep you out of one think silo and just thinking all the same way. So you talk to us about the influences of other people in one's lives. As you think about the life that you want to create for yourself.

 

Robert Helms (00:08:01) - This is such an important topic. I'm glad you bring it up at the beginning here because it is subtle, right? We don't get shoved off course.

 

Robert Helms (00:08:10) - We get nudged off course little by little by little. One of those five people you spend the most time with says, hey, let's go out drinking Friday night. And you were thinking, well, I was going to work on a podcast or a chapter on my book, or I was going to, okay, I'll just go out drinking and before you know it, like, that's not a bad decision. You get to spend time hanging out and there's some time in your life you want to be able to hang out with friends. But I think it's important that you become very strategic about your time. Time is a zero sum game, and it's also the most interesting resource because once this minute is gone, it's never coming back. What we do with this minute, we get a chance to do once, whether that's an hour, a day, a week. But at the same time, what happens after this minute? Well, another one and another month and another week. And so time can get away from you.

 

Robert Helms (00:08:58) - And if you're strategic about it, this is the key to success. Just spending time with people that have you going places, having you looking at your future, excited about what's happening now, you know, you mentioned your coworkers and you don't get to pick them. And that's true. But that's true about your family too. So you don't want to just write off your family. But let's face it, we probably all have negative people in our lives, whether it's friends, lifelong friends, people from college, but sometimes people in our family. So it's not that you don't spend any time with those people. It's your strategic about how and where you spend time with those folks. And the influences in our life probably have more impact on how well we do in life than any other factor.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:09:44) - We talk about being strategic and intentional with goal setting. There isn't a have you here today is because you're an expert in helping people set goals and help define a mission for their life, so I'm sure a lot of people, Robert, have come to you with a pretty well known framework for setting goals, called the Smart Goal Framework.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:10:03) - That's an acronym that stands for the fact that goals should be specific, measurable, attainable, relevant, and time based. So now I do think about the Smart goal framework before I set a goal, but I'm sure not to muddy up goals with a mission and all personalizes for a moment to give a good example for the audience. Robert, you can let me know what you think about this. And this is something outside of real estate investing. But when it comes to physical training, I have this mission of longevity and lean musculature. But to me, that's only a mission because it's kind of fuzzy and hazy. And then I have goals within that. For example, I had a couple goals within that. This year. I failed at them both. By the way. One was to be under £180 by June 1st, and the other was to run uphill up this trail in under 40 minutes by the end of the season. To me, those two things were goals, the body weight in the running, both of which I failed at within this broader mission of longevity and lean musculature.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:11:02) - So what are your thoughts about the Smart Goal Framework? Does that help people set goals and get them where they want to be?

 

Robert Helms (00:11:08) - Yeah, 100%, because just wanting something like, I want to be healthier or I want to be richer, those are great sentiments, but those aren't goals. What makes it a goal is the things you mentioned in the Smart framework works great. There's kind of the 101, which is if you've never set goals before, there's three things to focus on. The first is that a goal has to be specific and measurable. If you can't measure it, you don't know whether or not you hit it. So when you talk about something like your health and being lean, well, there's a couple of metrics in there. Percentage of body fat is a number and it's measurable how much weight you want to gain or lose is a number. And it's measurable. So that will help you instead of just I want to be lean. It's how lean do I want to be. And of course you might seek some counsel in that regard, either from a trainer or a doctor or someone to say, what's a good, healthy weight for me and so on.

 

Robert Helms (00:12:00) - So that's the specific part, which is also measurable. I kind of put that in as one thing, and the second is having a time deadline, a time limit or a deadline. So the best way to think of those two things is how much buy win, and your example of being able to do a specific amount of time metric by a certain date. That's exactly right, specific and measurable and with a time limit. And then the third thing is that to be effective, goals have to be written down. If you don't write down your goals, they're worth the paper they're written on. And it's not just so you won't forget. It's that something magical happens when we take pen to paper and writing it down. Using your computer, keyboard or voice to text is not the same as getting a good old fashioned pen or pencil and writing out your goals. Now that's the 101 write to take it. Beyond that, there are some few things in the smart model. It's either attainable or achievable for the A, and what that means is it has to be somewhat realistic.

 

Robert Helms (00:13:03) - You don't want to put limits on yourself, but if you say, well, you know, Robert, I made $50,000 this year and next year I'm going to make 5 million. Okay, well that's possible. People do that. There are people that go from 50,000 to 5 million. It's just not very likely. So unless you have some information that would show why that would happen, a much better way to think about it is how much can I stretch and still make the goal? If you made $50,000 a year for the last three years, Zig Ziglar says you can stretch to about 50% $75,000. That's a stretch, but it's realistic. So that's the attainable part, and it is a great framework. Now the other part, which is awesome when you're talking about how do I affect what I'm going to do. This is the crux of golf setting. There are two types of goals. If we were to narrow it down, there are outcome goals. That's how it's going to be at the end.

 

Robert Helms (00:13:56) - And then an even more important there are activity goals. So let's say you're in real estate sales and you want to sell 20 houses in 2024. That's a great goal. That's an outcome goal. At the end of 2024, I want to have listed and sold 20 houses. Okay, so January 2nd, when you get back, you know from your celebrating January 1st, what do you do? It's nebulous to say, well, gosh, to get to 20 houses by the end of the year. So what you do is you break down those 20 houses, that outcome goal into the specific steps necessary, and it would be different depending on every goal, right? It would be different for health than it was for relationships, than it was for your income. But to use this example, you might say, well, in order to sell 20 houses. Maybe I have to list 30 houses. Okay. To list 30 houses, I have to talk to 60 people. Okay, well, to talk to 60 people, I got to get 200 people on my list and so on and so forth.

 

Robert Helms (00:14:56) - Until you break it down to the actual activity, you can do January 2nd. So it might look like this. On January 2nd, I have to talk to four new people. I have to send out emails or letters or postcards to ten new people. And if I do that, if I do those two things, following the numbers all the way to the end of the year, that should result in my 20 houses. Now, how do you know what those numbers are? That's from your practice. You've done this before. If you're brand new in the business, you would get counsel from folks that are already doing that. Back to the five people you spend the most time with, right? Surround yourself with folks that have already done what you want to do, and then break down the outcome goal into the activities necessary to achieve the goal.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:15:40) - Oh, this is great step by step guidance. After I knew I failed at those two goals I shared with you, Artemis tried to reassure myself and tell myself that, well, you know, a lot of people don't even set concrete goals, so I ought to be okay about it because I've definitely ended up more fit.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:15:54) - But then at the same time, I don't always want to be comparing myself to normalcy or that's just a recipe for mediocrity. But maybe just here, as the introductory beginner goal setter that I am, I would have been more successful had I written them down, and had I made more intermediate steps in order to reach those two goals that I told you about? So I learned a little something there. I'm your host, Keith Weinhold, with Robert Helms of the Real Estate Guys. More on goals when we come back. You're listening to get Rich education. Render this a specific expert with income property, you need Ridge Lending Group and MLS for 256. In gray history, from beginners to veterans, they provided our listeners with more mortgages than anyone. It's where I get my own loans for single family rentals up to four plex's. Start your pre-qualification and chat with President Charlie Ridge. Personally, though, even customized plan tailored to you for growing your portfolio. Start at Ridge Lending group.com. Ridge lending group.com. You know, I'll just tell you, for the most passive part of my real estate investing, personally, I put my own dollars with Freedom Family Investments because their funds pay me a stream of regular cash flow in returns are better than a bank savings account up to 12%.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:17:22) - Their minimums are as low as 25 K. You don't even need to be accredited for some of them. It's all backed by real estate, and I kind of love how the tax benefit of doing this can offset capital gains and your W-2 jobs income. They've always given me exactly their stated return paid on time. So it's steady income, no surprises while I'm sleeping or just doing the things I love. For a little insider tip, I've invested in their power fund to get going on that text family to 66866. Oh, and this isn't a solicitation. If you want to invest where I do, just go ahead and text family to six, 686, six.

 

Robert Kiyosaki (00:18:09) - This is our rich dad. Poor dad. Author Robert Kiyosaki. Listen to get Rich education with Keith whine old Dot Prichard, Adrienne.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:18:27) - Welcome back to get Rich education. We're talking with Robert Helms of the Real Estate Guys about goals or not talking so much about real estate today because many people use real estate in order to fuel their other goals in life.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:18:40) - So many people just go floating through life without many goals. I could do a better job with my goal framework myself, as I think you just learned there, Robert. I think some people, they might be dismissive of goals because some people have the mindset where they're thinking, well, I'm just ordained to live a life like this, or I'm just destined to live a life like this. I don't know that our audience necessarily thinks that way, but I'd like to get your input on this. We recently had an Instagram poll over on our Instagram page, and the poll was simple are you destined or are you made? And 75% of respondents chose that they are made rather than that they are destined. So what are your thoughts with regard to that as we set goals for this trajectory in our life?

 

Robert Helms (00:19:28) - That is a world class question. We always say, if you want great answers, you have to ask great questions. And that's a great question and something people don't think about. There are folks that believe that they are completely self-made and that it's up to them.

 

Robert Helms (00:19:40) - If it's to be, it's up to me and I completely respect that. And then there are folks that believe that no something is written on my heart. Something tugs towards me. I have a destiny. I have a life work that I need to pursue, and I respect that as well. So we for years have done an annual goal setting retreat that we call Create Your Future. But people wrestle with this, and I kind of witnessed the same thing. About three quarters of the people resonate with Create Your Future. But the very first evening of the event, I also submit to the attendees that if you feel called, if you feel like I have a destiny, but I'm not clear about it, then I just suggest that they reframe the entire event by the original title we use, which was Discover Your Destiny. So whether you believe that there is a destiny, a calling for you, or you've got to figure it out, this process of thinking about your goals, breaking them down to action steps, making sure they're in alignment with your vision, having that mission that you talked about, right.

 

Robert Helms (00:20:45) - All those things will serve you kind of either way.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:20:49) - Yeah, that's a rather deep existential question that I think some people need to figure out, I would imagine, before they develop their goals. So now that we've talked about mission and goals somewhat, Robert, can you tell us about some of your more successful people and some real success cases you've seen with people that have actually achieved goals and gotten this life satisfaction about becoming the most that they can be?

 

Robert Helms (00:21:14) - I love that the reason I keep doing this part of my life is because of the results people get. It's absolutely astounding. We've watched people go from modest means to incredible success, and not just monetarily, although that certainly happened. One of my favorites is a young gentleman who was dragged along to this, the goal setting event we do every year by his dad. His dad had been through a four years, brought his son and his son was kind of lackadaisical, had a job that paid okay, but he was living in a home. He was £50 overweight, just kind of plodding through life.

 

Robert Helms (00:21:51) - After three years. This guy was a brand new guy and he has completely changed his life. He's fit as can be. He found the woman of his dreams, which was something he thought might never happen. He's no longer working at a job that he just deals with. He loves his career like everything has changed and he gives credit to that, to finding this clarity. So here's the essence of goal setting. Your two best friends are clarity and focus. You have to get clear on exactly specifically what you want and the steps to get there. Most people are not clear. They're vague, they're nebulous. They kind of know what they want to do, but they aren't sure. And so you need a process to help you uncover and get that clarity. And then once you have that clarity, focus, right? Tracy says. And this is a deep one. All of life is the study of attention. What you think about comes about, said Earl Nightingale. And so the point is, what if we focus on something? Think about in your life, you've had some experience that's been successful.

 

Robert Helms (00:22:59) - It's probably because you put a lot of focus into that, a lot of attention. Sure. I remember all those years ago when we were talking about, hey, you said, I'm thinking about starting a podcast, and I'm like, awesome, right? And I was encouraging of it. I was thrilled you'd thought you'd already recorded a couple episodes. Yeah. And so many guys or gals come up and say they want to start a podcast, and most never do. But because you had the passion for it and you were committed to it and you did all the hard work, right? Those first several episodes where you got six or 7 or 10 listeners, you can't get to the first million until you get to the first ten. And this is what life is. It's focusing on the things that you want in your life. Instead of spending our focused time on distractions, things that the advertisers in our life want us to do, things that those friends that maybe like us but don't necessarily have our best interests at heart.

 

Robert Helms (00:23:54) - They want us to come to you. So there's a lot to figuring out who you want to be when you grow up. But if you'll take the time to figure that out and then work towards it, it's extraordinary what can happen now as far as success stories, I'll tell one more story because this is a reality check. It's not all happy high notes four years ago. At the end of the Create Your Future Goals retreat, I had a gentleman come up to me, pretty well-known guy, and so I won't mention who it is. But he said, Robert, you don't know this about me, but you saved my marriage this weekend. He said, I came with my wife. She was really reluctant to come. We were on the verge of divorce and we spent our time to separate parts of the room. But as you recommended, we came together Saturday night for dinner and we just connected like we haven't in years. And I saw this guy a couple weeks ago thrilled with his marriage, with everything that's like, awesome.

 

Robert Helms (00:24:49) - Now, I have to tell you, the other part of the story, which is that same evening, I talked to another gentleman who came up to me and he said, I'd like to talk to you about something. My wife and I came to this event and we both played full out, and we took all the notes and we really got clear on on what we want to have and be and do in our lives. And we've made the decision that we're going to get a divorce. I'm like, wow. So here's my point. If that was in their trajectory, if the best thing for them really was to separate, like, how soon would you want to know that versus the other couple that for all those reasons, they have strife and challenges in their marriage, but when they really looked at who they were and who they were becoming, they figured out they were much stronger together. So all that to say that when you get into the tough stuff, right, that squishy part of your heart and your soul, that stuff will come up for you.

 

Robert Helms (00:25:42) - You know, at the event, we put Kleenex out everywhere and people are like, what is a cold going around? Like, no, you. May need this. You may not. But I will tell you most people, if to get it done right, you have to be emotional because emotion is what will create motion, and that motion in your life will change your life.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:26:01) - Well, you talked about how clarity is an early step and wow, that's astounding for a couple to get the clarity that they want, amend things or a couple to get the clarity that they should end things. So we talked about goals kind of the back end and everyone knows what goals are. But kind of on that front end in the clarity, in winnowing down toward your goals. Can you speak to us more about that clarity piece? Because really, I think that's what a lot of people lack, because it probably takes some real vision.

 

Robert Helms (00:26:30) - Boy sure does. And it's the part I think, that people don't teach.

 

Robert Helms (00:26:33) - So the simple part of goal setting, you know, the Smart goals that works, but it it assumes you already know what you want. And so at our workshop the first day, we don't spend a minute on goal setting. And people are like, isn't this a goal setting workshop? Yeah, there's a whole bunch of stuff you have to do before you can set goals, right? And so I'll give the listeners some nuggets. The first is to get clear on who you are. Now, that sounds too vague and too big of a question, but specifically your principles and values that govern your life. And I've discovered that most people have about a half a dozen. There's about a half a dozen things that you value that really, really matter to you. And I don't even want to prime the pump. I don't even want to put words out. So people jump into that. Oh yeah, that sounds good. Instead, you have to spend some time alone or with some awesome music, or how whatever's best for you to get in that state, and then really delve deep on to the things that matter in your life.

 

Robert Helms (00:27:36) - What principles guide your life? What's super important to you? If you could only have 2 or 3 things in your life, what would they be? And then you start to get clear on really what matters. Because most of us are busy. We're busy doing all kinds of different things. And busy is not necessarily the path to success. Sometimes you have to take things off your plate in order to do more. As we like to say, you have to say no to the good in order to say yes to the great right. And most busy people really need to do some changes in that regard. First, the things that maybe you've been doing but you really aren't suited to or you don't enjoy doing, you offload those things. You learn how to delegate some of that. And then if you can spend time thinking through what matters to you as a person independent of real estate or your career, or even your family life, just the values and principles that guide you now you start to open up to that clarity, and then we take you through a whole bunch of exercises to imagine what life would be.

 

Robert Helms (00:28:38) - And, you know, pay attention to things that you are good at. Most people don't give themselves enough credit for their skill sets, and there's two schools of thought in personal development getting better as a person. One is I'm going to do an assessment and this is really important, do an assessment of where you're at. And as Jim Collins said in his book, Good to Great, confront the Brutal facts. If you're messing up somewhere, admit it. This is just between you and yourself, right? So admit where things aren't going. So are where maybe you're not as skilled as you like to be, or you don't have the experience that you want. And then you take an assessment of the places that you're pretty good at. You know, we don't like to pat ourselves on the back publicly, but in the privacy of your own mind, figure out, hey, there are some things that I'm skilled at. Either I have learned and developed the skill. I'm naturally drawn towards a behavior that's positive, whatever that might be for you, and then school of thought number one is I'm going to look at all the things I'm not very good at and try to get better at them.

 

Robert Helms (00:29:37) - And if I do that, that'll make me a better person. And that's true. The second school of thought is I'm going to do the same exact assessment, except I'm going to look at the things that I'm really good at and I'm going to design my life. So that's what I spend my time doing and the things I'm not good at. I find out how to have somebody else do those things. You can probably tell from my energy that's the school of thought I subscribe to, but both will work. But if you will focus on your unique talents and gifts and those things you are destined to be, then that's how you become the next best version of you.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:30:12) - Oh, these are key pieces in finding the clarity that you need to go ahead and set goals. We all become victims of weapons of mass destruction. Robert. Oftentimes I joke about how I can't believe how much stuff I get done when my iPhone is over on the charger because I can't be on the iPhone at all. So every year you host the Goals Retreat, an in-person event so a person doesn't have weapons of mass destruction, and they can really be focused.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:30:40) - And it's important that this is done in person. It's a hands on workshop in a focused environment. You've got a lot of great testimonials about it, and even people that repeat and show up year after year, people that become teary eyed for what you brought out of them, people that say that their lives have been changed forever. So tell us about how one can attend your goals retreat.

 

Robert Helms (00:30:59) - What's coming up the second weekend of the new year. It's a great time to be thinking about your future as we're at the beginning of the year when 2024 is a blank canvas and it happens in Dallas, Texas, we picked a hotel that is really conducive to having little nooks and crannies and places that you could go because there is instruction, but there's also times where you're going to go journal and answer questions and think and be alone. And it's a beautiful place. So you get some inspiration in that regard. It takes two and a half days. So we started about 5:00 in the afternoon on Friday and go till 10 or 1030 that night.

 

Robert Helms (00:31:33) - A lot of people are traveling in a day, so that's about as much as we can get people to pay attention before they start to nod off. But then the next day, Saturday, it's all day from, you know, 730 breakfast till 1030 at night. And then Sunday kind of 8:00 in the morning for breakfast until 6:00 at night. And then we have our afterglow reception. And, you know, I used to do this, Keith, in three hours and in three hours I could teach a lot about how to set goals and how to ask those questions. But then I'd have to send you home to do it. And a few people would, and most people wouldn't. So now in the two and a half days, you will get a ton done. Your missions, your values, your purpose. You'll answer more than 250 questions, and you'll do it in writing and you'll get some great, great stuff. Some of it you'll go, yeah, of course. And other times you'll be absolutely surprised at what happened when you put pen to paper.

 

Robert Helms (00:32:27) - And then on Sunday, it's really a workshop to turn those goals into action plan. So you leave not confused, not vague, but crystal clear. You obviously can't get every single thing done on every goal. In two and a half days. There's some homework, but you're going to have enough done that you'll have that momentum. So if people are interested in that, that sounds interesting to you. All you have to do is go to Goals retreat.com goals retreat.com and you can learn all about the Create Your Future 2024 goals. Retreat.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:32:58) - Invest in future. You. You're worth it Robert. It's been valuable. Thanks so much for coming out to the show.

 

Robert Helms (00:33:05) - Great to see you, Keith. Thanks for having me. I wish everybody out there a wonderful 2024.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:33:16) - Oh yeah, great stuff from Robert Helms. As usual to review Smart goals are specific, measurable, attainable, relevant, and time based. Even if it's your personal goal and you know that you won't forget that goal, it has been shown to increase your success.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:33:33) - If you write down your goals old school style with a pen and paper, let's review a few other things that you learned there. When you set a goal, set intermediate benchmarks within it. That's something that I need to work on personally. But before you even set goals, you'd have to know that they are the right goals. And that means that you need to get clarity of vision first. That comes with understanding your principles and values, and then you can spend your life being in the lane that you enjoy because you've helped figure out what that was in our discussion about. Are you destined versus are you made? Earlier in my life, I believed I was destined and now I believe I am made. Back when my high school classmates voted me as the most quiet and shy student, and then later I'd go on to host basically a talk show here. Well, that was my pivot point. To know that you make yourself, if you're still wrestling with the you are destined versus you are made conundrum, perhaps you can adopt the belief that you were destined to make yourself the best you that you can be, and there you've got both in one, the real estate guys host a number of world class, in-person events.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:34:50) - I would know because I've attended a number of them myself, from a real estate syndication event to a summit cruise to real estate field trips. But among them, all their goals retreat is their highest rated event, and it's only held annually. If it sounds interesting to you again. Goals retreat.com major thanks to Robert Helms today. Next week here on gray. It's real estate investing content that you've probably never heard before when we do How the Rent Stole Christmas. And I'm also going to deliver Gre's big home price appreciation forecast for next year and more on top of that. That's all next week. Until then, I'm your host, Keith Reinhold. Happy holidays. Don't quit your daydream.

 

Speaker 5 (00:35:40) - Nothing on this show should be considered specific, personal or professional advice. Please consult an appropriate tax, legal, real estate, financial or business professional for individualized advice. Opinions of guests are their own. Information is not guaranteed. All investment strategies have the potential for profit or loss. The host is operating on behalf of get Rich education LLC exclusively.

 

Speaker 6 (00:36:08) - The preceding program was brought to you by your home for wealth building. Get rich education.com.





Direct download: GREepisode480_.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 4:00am EDT

A crying, sniffling mother reveals how inflation is ravaging her family. Despite a two-parent income, she tells us that they're trending toward poverty due to wages that struggle to cover inflated prices.

For home prices to fall, many homeowners need to walk away. But if they tried that today, they’d have to pay more in rent than they would on their low mortgage payment.

It’s absurd to only have one source of income.

401(k)s are considered a scam by some. I explain. Plan participants buy an income stream “probably later”. Real assets that cash flow provide income “surely now”.

There’s no such thing as: rent inflation, food inflation, or energy inflation. Inflation comes from the central bank.

One dollar in 1776 has the purchasing power of $35.36 today.

The worst consequence of inflation is that one parent could work to be middle class in the 1950s. It became two by the 1990s. After the 2020s inflation wave, two parents might not be enough anymore.

I explain why the Fed should keep interest rates the same for at least one year. But I doubt that they will.

Resources mentioned:

Show Notes:

GetRichEducation.com/479

Terrific inflation resource, charts:

https://www.officialdata.org/us/inflation/1776

For access to properties or free help with a

GRE Investment Coach, start here:

GREmarketplace.com

Get mortgage loans for investment property:

RidgeLendingGroup.com or call 855-74-RIDGE 

or e-mail: info@RidgeLendingGroup.com

Invest with Freedom Family Investments. 

You get paid first: Text FAMILY to 66866

Will you please leave a review for the show? I’d be grateful. Search “how to leave an Apple Podcasts review” 

Top Properties & Providers:

GREmarketplace.com

GRE Free Investment Coaching:

GREmarketplace.com/Coach

Best Financial Education:

GetRichEducation.com

Get our wealth-building newsletter free—

text ‘GRE’ to 66866

Our YouTube Channel:

www.youtube.com/c/GetRichEducation

Follow us on Instagram:

@getricheducation

Keith’s personal Instagram:

@keithweinhold

Direct download: GREepisode479_.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 4:00am EDT

If you own a real estate entity (like an LLC), the new Corporate Transparency Act (CTA) must be complied with soon.

I have my own attorneys on the show to discuss this today, Garrett and Ted Sutton.

You must report ownership information to the federal government. It must only be done one-time, not annually.

The penalties for non-compliance with the CTA can be as high as $10,000 in fines or up to 2 years in jail. Those penalties would be for the most egregious acts.

The intent behind the CTA is to prevent money laundering and terrorist financing.

If you don’t own real estate in an LLC, you probably won’t need to comply. There are pros and cons of using LLCs, which I discuss.

For help complying with the CTA, you can contact Corporate Direct at CorporateDirect.com or (800) 600-1760.

Resources mentioned:

Show Notes:

GetRichEducation.com/478

Corporate Direct:

CorporateDirect.com

1-800-600-1760

Video platform with kids’ FinEd:

SunnStream.com/fivetricks

For access to properties or free help with a

GRE Investment Coach, start here:

GREmarketplace.com

Get mortgage loans for investment property:

RidgeLendingGroup.com or call 855-74-RIDGE 

or e-mail: info@RidgeLendingGroup.com

Invest with Freedom Family Investments. 

You get paid first: Text FAMILY to 66866

Will you please leave a review for the show? I’d be grateful. Search “how to leave an Apple Podcasts review” 

Top Properties & Providers:

GREmarketplace.com

GRE Free Investment Coaching:

GREmarketplace.com/Coach

Best Financial Education:

GetRichEducation.com

Get our wealth-building newsletter free—

text ‘GRE’ to 66866

Our YouTube Channel:

www.youtube.com/c/GetRichEducation

Follow us on Instagram:

@getricheducation

Keith’s personal Instagram:

@keithweinhold

Direct download: GREepisode478_b.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 4:00am EDT

Today's topics: Conventional financial advice is God-awful; tertiary real estate markets; I’ve got a solution to guilt tipping; whether or not the world is uncertain and unsafe.

Conventional financial advice is so bad. I attack the practices of setting budget alerts and paying off your smallest debts first. 

Don’t roll a debt snowball; roll a cash flow snowball.

In the past five years, tertiary markets are beginning to exhibit the rent stability of larger markets.

Guilt tipping is out of control. Learn my elegant solution. You’ll never pay a guilt tip again.

It seems like the world is increasingly uncertain and unsafe. It isn’t. I talk about why it only seems this way.

Timestamps:

The limitations of budgeting (00:02:43)

Discussion on the drawbacks of using budgeting platforms and how they reinforce scarcity thinking.

The debt snowball concept (00:05:09)

Explanation of the debt snowball method of debt paydown and why it is not aligned with an abundance mindset.

Investing in tertiary real estate markets (00:09:43)

Exploration of the emerging bullish case for investing in smaller, tertiary real estate markets and their stability compared to larger markets.

Tertiary Real Estate Markets (00:10:56)

Discussion of the advantages and objections to investing in smaller tertiary real estate markets.

Increasing Investor Appetite in Smaller Markets (00:12:02)

Exploration of the growing interest and sales volumes in tertiary real estate markets.

Guilt Tipping and a Solution (00:20:16)

Explanation of guilt tipping and a proposed solution to avoid feeling pressured to leave a tip when making digital payments.

Guilt Tipping and the Increasing Expectations (00:21:20)

Discussion on the rise of tipping expectations and the use of digital payment prompts to ask for tips.

The Problem with Guilt Tipping and the Inconvenience of Undoing Tips (00:23:45)

Exploration of the annoyance of guilt tipping and the difficulty of undoing tips after poor service.

The Solution: Paying Cash to Avoid Guilt Tipping (00:31:18)

Suggestion to pay with cash as an elegant solution to circumvent guilt tipping and ignore electronic payment terminals.

The Uncertainty of the World (00:32:25)

Discusses how uncertainty has always existed and how waiting for complete clarity can hinder investment decisions.

Disasters and Uncertainty (00:33:47)

Lists various disasters and events that have occurred in the US, highlighting the constant presence of uncertainty and the relative sense of certainty and safety today.

The Ultra Safety of American Society (00:36:13)

Examines how society has become ultra safe, discussing the term "safetyism" and providing examples of excessive safety measures.

Resources mentioned:

Show Notes:

GetRichEducation.com/477

For access to properties or free help with a

GRE Investment Coach, start here:

GREmarketplace.com

Get mortgage loans for investment property:

RidgeLendingGroup.com or call 855-74-RIDGE 

or e-mail: info@RidgeLendingGroup.com

Invest with Freedom Family Investments. 

You get paid first: Text FAMILY to 66866

Will you please leave a review for the show? I’d be grateful. Search “how to leave an Apple Podcasts review” 

Top Properties & Providers:

GREmarketplace.com

GRE Free Investment Coaching:

GREmarketplace.com/Coach

Best Financial Education:

GetRichEducation.com

Get our wealth-building newsletter free—

text ‘GRE’ to 66866

Our YouTube Channel:

www.youtube.com/c/GetRichEducation

Follow us on Instagram:

@getricheducation

Keith’s personal Instagram:

@keithweinhold

 

Complete Episode Transcript:

 

Keith Weinhold (00:00:01) - Welcome to I'm your host, Keith Weinhold, with a rant on how conventional financial advice is so terribly god awful an outlook for tertiary real estate markets, then? Are you getting worn down from guilt tipping? I've got a proven solution on how you'll never pay a guilt trip to a business again. And finally, how do you arrange your investing in personal finances in a world that's uncertain and unsafe? All today on get Rich education? When you want the best real estate and finance info, the modern internet experience limits your free articles access, and it's replete with paywalls. And you've got pop ups and push notifications and cookies. Disclaimers. Oh, at no other time in history has it been more vital to place nice, clean, free content into your hands that actually adds no hype value to your life? See, this is the golden age of quality newsletters, and I write every word of hours myself. It's got a dash of humor and it's to the point to get the letter. It couldn't be more simple text to six, 6866.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:01:15) - And when you start the free newsletter, you'll also get my one hour fast real estate course completely free. It's called the Don't Quit Your Day dream letter and it wires your mind for wealth. Make sure you read it, text GRE to 66866. Text  GRE to 66866.

 

Speaker 2 (00:01:40) - You're listening to the show that has created more financial freedom than nearly any show in the world. This is get rich education.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:01:56) - Welcome from Los Angeles, California, to Las Cruces, New Mexico, and across 188 nations worldwide. I'm Keith Wayne holding. This is get rich education. When you pay for a low level service item like a Chipotle burrito, and another human is looking at you to see if you leave a 20% tip on a digital payment terminal, does that make you feel uncomfortable? Well, now you're being asked to. Guilt tip I've got a foolproof way on how to never get put in that situation again. That I'll share with you later here. You know, sometimes you just hear something that triggers a rant. I recently heard an ad for a digital platform that helps you manage your finances.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:02:43) - And what an awful, in scarcity minded way of thinking this reinforces. But this is actually what mainstream financial guidance looks like. All right, it was an ad for a digital platform trying to attract you there. And here's basically how it works. You set up your account. Then based on your income and expenses, you set up your budget. And as you know, that is a bad word around here, a budget. It's not how you want to live long term. All right. Then, when you're close to hitting your spending budget for the month or whatever, this platform triggers a budget alert. Are you kidding me? You get emailed a budget alert. How convenient. Oh, geez. So much for living an aspirational life by design. What a dreadful idea. Like someone that really wants more out of life would actually take effort to set up something like that. You would be building an architecture to establish life patterns that completely say, I think that money is a scarce resource. Now, in the short term, you've got to do what you've got to do, which might mean living below your means for a little while.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:03:55) - But in a world of abundance, delayed gratification should be a short term notion for you. I think that this type of platform that centered around stupid budget alerts is so limiting. Gosh, you've got to feel cheap just saying that out loud a budget alert. But anyway, that sounds conducive to this concept of scarcity based finance called a debt snowball that you can read about the debt snowball on Investopedia. But the debt snowball, that's basically how you pay off your debt with the smallest balance first, not the highest interest rate, but yes, the smallest principal balance it would have basically says is in the first step, what you're supposed to do is list your debts from smallest to largest, and that's regardless of interest rate, just smallest to largest based on the amount. And then the next step is that you make minimum payments on all of your debts except the smallest one, because you pay as much as possible on your smallest debt. And then the last step is you're supposed to just go ahead and repeat that until each debt is paid in full.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:05:09) - That's the debt snowball. So according to that, why do they say to disregard the interest rate, which is your cost of capital? Because they say that when you pay off the smallest debt super quick, that you're going to be jumping up and down with excitement, and that is going to motivate you to keep working hard to get debt free. They say that hope is more important than math. That's the school of thought. And along the way you should lower your expenses, cut spending, work hard and add a side hustle where you can. Oh my gosh, that is all congruent with this debt snowball concept that we sure do not endorse here at. I mean, that is 100% orthogonal to the world of abundance that we believe in. So often on your high interest rate debt. What you would do then is you'd make the minimum payments with this debt snowball, and then you focus it all on your smallest debt amount, regardless of interest rate. You've heard that right? And it even advocates that you stop investing and just focus on that smallest debt amount, even if it's a low interest rate.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:06:22) - That makes no sense. If you've decided that debt paydown is the best allocation of your first expendable dollar. All right, even if that were a yes, then in most cases you'd want to pay down the highest interest rate independent of the total principal balance on each of your debts. I mean, that's arbitrage, but they even bigger question for you, almost existential in nature is why is the best way to allocate your first expendable dollar on debt? Paydown. And. Any way it's or that. First, because one of the first places to look is how you can leverage that dollar 4 to 1 or 5 to 1 as long as you've controlled cash flows. Now, sometimes there are instances where you'd want to pay down debt before investing, certainly like a 20% Apr credit card debt, that could be one such place. So could retiring a debt to help your DTI, your debt to income ratio so that you can originate a new business loan or a new real estate loan first? All right, you might do thatrillionegardless of the interest rate on a loan.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:07:30) - But my gosh, if we want to stick with the snowball analogy, since we're a few days from December here, instead of trying to push a debt snowball up a hill to start rolling a cash flow snowball down a hill, when you buy an asset that pays you a monthly income stream to own it, that is constructive. Compounding your cash flows beats compounding your debt paid out. Instead of trying to push a debt snowball up a hill because you're cutting your one and only quality of life down. Instead, start rolling a cash flow snowball down a hill, and now you've got gravity working with you in the right way. That is the end of my rent. Hey, maybe I just feel like complaining a bit. My Jim was playing Phil Collins and Elton John all weekend, so maybe that's a kind of what in the world kind of mood that had generated in me, I don't know. And hey, nothing wrong with Phil Collins and Elton John. I mean, those guys are truly talented singers, 100%.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:08:28) - I just don't want to be working out to those guys. Michael Bolton, George Michael that's not motivating me to hit 20 burpees. Okay. Hey, well, I hope that you were set up for a great week. Be sure that part of it is that you are signed up for our live event tonight for 5.75% mortgage rates on Florida Income property@webinars.com. Now, whether you're looking at investment property in Florida or most any of the other 49 US states, there's a really nascent and interesting development that's been taking place for at least five years now. And that is what's happening in tertiary markets, smaller markets. I'll define tertiary a bit more shortly, but we're talking about metro statistical areas, MSAs that are probably not under 100,000 population, not that small. From a rent growth perspective. What's happened is that over the last five years, tertiary markets have had similar patterns to bigger markets. And historically, these smaller markets have been more erratic. But in rent growth terms, tertiary markets have stabilized. Now, a primary market is something like New York City or Chicago, a secondary market.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:09:43) - You might think of that as a little Rock, Arkansas, where it's under a million in size, and then a tertiary market that's going to be somewhat discretionary. But we're talking about a population of 100 K up to, say, 300 K. And what's noteworthy is that there are now more analysts and investors that are bullish on vibrant tertiary markets. So let's talk about why this is happening. I think there's an emerging bull case for overcoming some of the historical roadblocks to tertiary market investments in a diversified multifamily or single family rental portfolio. And one classical objection is that tertiary real estate markets are too volatile. Historically, we perceive smaller markets as more volatile. Yes, and some surely are. But over these last five years, markets outside the top 50 in size were regularly more consistent. Okay. They avoided rent cuts in 2020. They recorded sizable but less lawfully rent hikes in 2021 and 2022. And now they remain moderately positive in 2023, even as larger markets have kind of flattened out in the rent growth.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:10:56) - And of course, we're talking about a composite group of tertiary markets here. Some are more stable than others. You got to watch those local trends as always, of course. And you know, classically a second objection with these smaller markets is that, well, it's too easy to add a lot of supply. And yes, that is sometimes true and sometimes it's not. Indeed, there are a handful of small markets that are building like crazy, like Sioux Falls, South Dakota in Huntsville, Alabama. But as a group, the construction rate in what that is is the total units under construction divided by the total existing market, that is 5% in large markets versus the construction rate of just 4% in small markets. See, it can be harder to build in certain small markets due to NIMBYism or a lack of debt availability, especially if local banks aren't interested in the check size needed for construction loans. It can also be harder to build in certain small markets due to a lack. Of equity because it's a tougher sell to ask investors in a syndication to bet on a market that they don't have a lot of knowledge of.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:12:02) - Another objection to these tertiary markets is that small markets are not liquid. Since 2019, sales volumes in dollars going into tertiary markets has doubled. Investor appetite has definitely increased in smaller markets. And that's particularly true among these traditional regional investors that are looking for better yield as the larger cities got pricier. So good small markets, you know, a lot of them really are not secrets anymore. And there's only one more objection to these tertiary real estate markets and that it is harder to scale operations. And yes, there is always benefit in efficiency of scale. But, you know, it's certainly been getting easier with better technology today. Investors can always work with top local property managers. And for investment property owners or managers, they often target small markets adjacent to larger markets where they have a bigger presence. So some other considerations before you as an investor go deep in one of these smaller tertiary markets is you want to be choosy in your market and in your site selection. Look for small markets that have multiple drivers.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:13:13) - You don't just want these one trick ponies. You know, I've discussed with you before about how markets that are heavily focused on commodities or heavily focused on military, they are not favorable because those two sectors, for example, commodities and military, are just pretty volatile. Look for growth or steady markets, lots of small markets. They continue to grow at a pretty healthy clip. And you want to look for markets with an absence of new product. Now why don't I name a few tertiary markets so that you can get a better idea of this. So about 100 K to 300 K in population size. Not that these next ones are necessarily good or bad markets. It's just for size comparison. I'm thinking about Ocala, Florida and Shreveport, Louisiana. You know those two. They're almost getting too big. They're almost secondary markets Wilmington, North Carolina at 300 K. That's a tertiary market. So are Akron and Canton, Ohio Dayton. That's pretty tertiary, but it's also close to Cincinnati. So you got a little more safety in Dayton.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:14:20) - Toledo is secondary. Burlington, Vermont is tertiary. Bellingham, Washington is tertiary. Yuma and Flagstaff, Arizona are both tertiary. Yes. We're talking about the stability in rents in tertiary real estate markets. Conventionally. You know, in the past, I've said that MSAs of 500 K population or more, that's pretty much where you want to be. But anymore, with the rise of remote work after 2019, it's really making some of these smaller tertiary markets more palatable to real estate investors and something that you probably want to consider. So really, that's the takeaway for you here and say this is the kind of stuff that really plays into my interests as a geography guy. See, I'm a real estate guy, but I might be the most geography interested real estate guy out there. Geography is something that I really love, though I could I don't share too much geography here on a real estate show. Sometimes it's relevant because both geography and real estate are location, location, location, but sometimes it's less relevant.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:15:25) - For example, North America's longest river is not the Mississippi, it's the Missouri River. The New York City metro area is so populated that more than one in every 18 Americans live there. That's almost 6% of the entire American population. See, some of this is more trivial or of general interest than it is relevant to real estate. Although you could learn some geography from me. Do you know the closest US state to Africa? If you draw a straight line, the closest state to Africa is not Florida or North Carolina. It is Maine. Look on a globe. Part of the reason that Maine is the closest state is that Africa is primarily in the Northern Hemisphere, not the southern, contrary to popular belief, and to look at a different continent. The entirety of South America is east of Jacksonville, Florida. Here's one more piece of geography. Canada's beautiful and mountainous Yukon Territory is larger than California, yet California has more than 900 times the population of the entire Yukon. Yes, the giant Yukon has less than 45,000 people.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:16:39) - It is the practice of guilt tipping out of control. And how do you respond to our world that seems to be increasingly unsafe and uncertain. That's coming up next. They say, if you give a man a fish you have fed him for. Or a day. But if you teach them to fish, you have fed him for a lifetime. Well, here at gray, we do both. I'm not talking about both in terms of men and women, but we teach you how to fish and give you a fish. Get rich. Education is where we teach you how to fish. With this show, with our blog and newsletter and videos, we also give you a fish. That's it. Gray marketplace. It's one of the few places you'll find affordable, available properties that are good quality there at marketplace. They're all conducive to our strategy of real estate pays five ways I'm Keith Wild. You're listening to get Rich education. Jerry listeners can't stop talking about their service from Rich lending group and MLS. For 256.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:17:45) - They've provided our tribe with more loans than anyone. They're truly a top lender for beginners and veterans. It's where I go to get my own loans for single family rental property up to four plex. So start your pre-qualification and you can chat with President Charlie Ridge. Personally, though, even deliver your custom plan for growing your real estate portfolio. Start at Ridge Lending Group. You know, I'll just tell you, for the most passive part of my real estate investing, personally, I put my own dollars with Freedom Family Investments because their funds pay me a stream of regular cash flow in returns are better than a bank savings account up to 12%. Their minimums are as low as 25 K. You don't even need to be accredited for some of them. It's all backed by real estate, and I kind of love how the tax benefit of doing this can offset capital gains in your W-2 jobs income, and they've always given me exactly their stated return paid on time. So it's steady income, no surprises while I'm sleeping or just doing the things I love.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:18:55) - For a little insider tip, I've invested in their power fund to get going on that text family to 66866. Oh, and this isn't a solicitation. If you want to invest where I do, just go ahead and text family to 66866.

 

Speaker 3 (00:19:16) - This is real estate investment coach Naresh Vissa. Don't live below your means. Grow your needs. Listen to get rich education with Keith Weinhold.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:19:34) - Welcome back. I'm your host, Keith Weinhold. There will only ever be one great podcast. Episode 477. And you're listening to it perhaps on one third of our episodes. Throughout the show's history, there is no guest. It's 100% me, a slack jawed monologue like it is today, and lots of great Jerry episodes coming up in the future, including Robert Helms other real estate guys here soon as he runs alongside me for an episode as we discuss goals. If you get value from and you don't want to miss any future episodes, be sure to hit subscribe or follow on your favorite podcast platform so that you're sure to hear from me again after today.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:20:16) - Is guilt tipping out of control? We have all felt it now. Does this happen to you today when you're about to pay the Starbucks barista or for the subway sandwich and they spin the digital payment terminal around toward you and say, it's just going to ask you a question before you pay. And then they stand there and they look at you in the face and they watch what you choose. All right. Does that right there give you a tinge of anxiety or even stress you out? Well, if you give in to that, that is called guilt tipping. And you know what? I've got a solution to guilt tipping. A simple and elegant way that I'm going to share with you so that you never have to see a payment terminal like this in your face again, that asks you for a tip when you're out shopping or dining and paying for something. Yes, I've got a proven solution for how you'll never even be asked to leave a guilt tip again because I tested it and mastered it. It works.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:21:20) - We even have an unverified report on Reddit of a self-serve digital kiosk now even asking you for a tip. What? I mean, how far will this go? Yes, like a self-checkout for your own groceries at a supermarket like Giant or Safeway? First, let's get some context about why this is so important to you in the first place and how bad it's getting. It might even be worse than what you're thinking here. All right, a new study from Pew Research. It found that 72% of people said that the long standing practice of tipping is now expected in more places than it was five years ago. My reaction to that stat is what? How is it not 100% of people saying that it's happening all over the place, and consumers like you and I are increasingly getting tired of it? The way it works is that today's digital payment prompts, they allow businesses to preset suggested tip levels, so it's easier than ever for them to ask for tips and companies that have not done so in the past. They are definitely doing it now rather than giving employees a raise.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:22:35) - Instead, they're asking you to supplement the employee wage by asking you for tips where they didn't before. Must you fight back like David Horowitz, if you're uninitiated on that? I learned about a popular show that apparently ran on prime time network television in the 1980s. The show was called Fight Back with David Horowitz, and it advocated for how consumers can fight back against unscrupulous business practices. In fact, let's listen into the cornball intro of this show, which your parents might remember. It's something about fight back. Don't let businesses push you around.

 

Speaker UU (00:23:20) - But don't let anyone push you around. Fine, but stand up and hold your ground. I got. Someone tries to you in. Five spot. Just.

 

Speaker 4 (00:23:44) - Oh, jeez. Yeah.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:23:45) - Fight back against guilt tipping, I suppose. See, a few years back, the reason that you began getting asked to leave a tip in places you hadn't before. That's because it was a way for you to provide a gratuity for service workers. Because you were supposed to have appreciated that they showed up during the health crisis when a lot of workers did not want to show up.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:24:09) - But now that the crisis appears largely over with, the tip requests have not gone away. They've gotten worse because by now companies see what they can get away with. Now, look, people don't want to feel like a jerk or a cheapskate. You don't. I don't, but businesses are taking advantage of that fact by making bigger than usual tips. The default option on these payment terminals. It really that's the crux of the annoyance. Say that you're given choices of 20, 25, or 30% on a payment terminal just for someone handing you a pre-made sandwich that's already wrapped in cellophane. I've had it happen to me, and then hoping that you will just go ahead and pay the extra amount, rather than hassling with clicking custom tip and entering a smaller number like 10% or zero. Understand something here. The business call it a sandwich shop. They're not the ones that always decide what tip options you're presented with. Did you know that because the companies that own the payment systems, they can earn a cut of your money from each transaction? Those payment system companies, they also have an incentive to increase those amounts as much as possible, not just the sandwich shop, but they are both complicit in this scheme together.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:25:37) - But now sometimes you get asked to leave a tip beforehand before you're even delivered any good or service. And see, that's getting awkward too. And see the fear of that you and I should have. Now is that in this case, as the customer, as the client, you are going to get punished if you leave a low tip before they deliver the service to you. See, that's another big problem here with guilt tipping. Now, traditionally, tips were thought of as a way to reward good service after you already received what you paid for, right? That's how it works. You pay your server after a meal, you pay your valet. After they bring you your car. You pay the tour guide after your volcano hike or snorkel tour. If you thought that they did a good job. Now, just the other day at a chain fast casual Mexican restaurant that you've certainly heard of, I was being rung up about $35 for two double steak burritos, and there's a lower service level there than a full sit down restaurant.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:26:44) - But I left a 10% tip at the counter on that day. I thought they put lots of steak on them. And then I walked my burritos to the tables and the tables were messy. I could not find a clean table anywhere, but I had already left the tip. It was too late, so I left the tip and then only later did I discover the poor service, the messy tables. Oh gosh, I wasn't going to go back and try to undo the tip, huh? Before I tell you about my elegant solution so that you can forever avoid guilt tipping. So let's understand just where are Americans tipping today? The situations when people add a gratuity. You know, this really offers some insight into the new tipping landscape. And again, this is according to Pew Research for dining at sit down restaurants, 92% of people are tipping there. And of note, a majority said that they would tip 15% or less for an average sit down meal. That kind of surprised me, because etiquette experts say the tipping 20% at a full service restaurant is standard now, and that's what I do.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:27:48) - Okay, getting a haircut 78% of people tip today. Having food delivered 76% for those using a taxi or rideshare service like Uber, 61% of people said that they would tip. I tip for all those things. Buying coffee. Only 25% of people leave tips and eating at fast casual restaurants only 12%. So look, people are upset because we've had years of high consumer price inflation and service inflation on top of that. And then a tip on top of that. Yeah. So it's tip relation on top of inflation. And then there is this preponderance of restaurants especially. It suggests that you tip the post-tax amount. Have you noticed that that means that you're also paying a tip on the tax that you pay? So just pay attention to that next time you're at a sit down, full service restaurant, or really most any other place that suggests a tip amount. And yeah, that's annoying. And I really doubt that that business sends that extra revenue to the IRS where you're paying a tip to the tax amount.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:29:00) - Gosh. But it all comes back to tip and the influx of automatic prompts at businesses like coffee shops, it gives you more chances to tip, and it'll just wear you down and then wear you out, creating this sense of exhaustion thinking what is all this for? It is just wild. If supermarkets are asking you to leave a tip for self checkout, your supermarket wants to outsource their checkout duties from clerks and cashiers to you, asking you to scan your own groceries. By the way, that is an example of service inflation. And then they ask you for a tip. On top of this food inflation and service inflation, you're doing it all yourself. What is next? You're going to have to unload the store's delivery of food from the 18 Wheeler truck in the back, onto a forklift, and onto the shelves yourself. I kind of doubt that. But if grocery stores are convenience stores, self-serve kiosks, if they're requesting tips, then it's more likely that soon enough, your human checkout clerk is going to start requesting tips.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:30:09) - When you're checking out at Whole Foods or Publix or Wegmans or Safeway, that human checkout clerk that's going to appear as some sort of small luxury comparatively. I mean, I would expect that to come to your town next. Expect to see it if you haven't already. There used to be this general understanding of what different tip amounts convey to servers and workers. Now, decades ago, it used to be a 10% tip meant, all right, well, hey, it wasn't horrible, but it wasn't great either. A 15% tip was normal and 20%. That meant that person did an excellent job. But now those amounts have all become expected and they've all been bumped up 5% or more. All right, well, here's my solution to avoid guilt tipping the way to no longer see a digital payment terminal spun around put in your face. Putting you on the spot to make a nice tip is just this two word solution pay cash. Yes, when you pay cash, you don't have to see an electronic payment terminal at all.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:31:18) - And it's far easier for you to ignore a physical tip jar that's sitting on the counter over to the side of you. The elegant and simple solution to guilt tipping is to pay cash. Now go ahead and leave a tip for good service if you want to. I'm not here to suggest that you stop all tipping. It's about how you can make an elegant circumvention of guilt tipping. If you have an eight second long exchange where you ask for a cup of coffee and they turn around and pour it from a spout and hand it to you. And that's all they did. Well, that tips discretionary. The bottom line is that you don't have to tip every time you're prompted. And now go ahead and hit up that ATM with cash. You will be armed and you can avoid guilt tipping completely. And hey, can we say that you will be fighting back like David Horowitz? Tipping is fine, but guilt tipping is out of control. And hey, if you want to see more on guilt tipping, I really brought it to life on a video recently where I really broke it down.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:32:25) - That is on our YouTube channel. We are consistently branded as they say. Our YouTube channel is called get Rich education. So you can watch me talk about guilt tipping and show you more over there. Do you feel like the world that you're living in is increasingly uncertain and unsafe? And is that adversely affecting your investment decisions? That happens to some people and you can't make gains when you stay on the sidelines. I think some people make too much of uncertainty, even though it has always existed. Just look at the last about four years. You know, someone could have said, I am just paralyzed with inaction because of the pandemic. Oh, that's uncertain then the recession fears uncertain, then rising interest rates where they rose fast, uncertain. And today it might be wars uncertain. And you know, the same people that get paralyzed with uncertainty. They will soon say something next year like, well, it's a presidential election year. So. I think uncertainty is going to sideline me again. If you wait for uncertainty to abate, such as you have complete clarity or even great clarity, you're going to be waiting your entire life.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:33:47) - Uncertainty and an absence of complete safety that's existed in the world every single day since the day that you and I were born and before you and I were born. And it will exist after we're gone, too. I mean, really, just look at some of these disasters that have taken place just this century, and we're still in the first quarter of this century. And let's look here at some just in the US, not foreign crises. I'm thinking about the Y2K bug, the September 11th terrorist attacks on the World Trade Towers in the Pentagon, the Iraq war, the invasion into Afghanistan, Hurricane Katrina, where 1800 people were killed, the GREAtrillionECESSION, the Arab Spring, the surprise of Donald Trump becoming our president in 2016. Remember, that was a real upset over Hillary Clinton. How about the jarring events of January 6th of the Capitol less than three years ago, the eviction moratorium, the slow creep of climate change, the riots and civil unrest with the George Floyd protests, the wildflowers from California to Maui.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:35:00) - I mean, I could go on and on about how winners just keep thriving despite a world that's constantly uncertain and unsafe. And I'm only talking about things that involve the United States here, and I'm keeping it confined to this century just a little more than two decades. I mean, before that, we had World wars. We had the Dust Bowl, Cuba's Bay of pigs invasion in the Cuban Missile Crisis that could have led to a nuclear apocalypse that completely destroyed the entire world. There is relative clarity today compared to all that. How about an assassination attempt of our President Reagan? I mean, things are substantially more certain today in a lot of ways. And today, American employment is strong, GDP is growing. Our currency is fairly stable despite our problems, which will always exist. Today, the US economy is outperforming everybody in the world. And in a world that some feel is uncertain and unsafe, just consider the relative sense of certainty and safety you have today. Well, we discuss wars today. As bad as they are when they do happen, they're never on US soil.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:36:13) - Can you imagine an attack on American soil? How would that sound? Like? The enemy has destroyed and taken control of Charleston in Savannah. And next they're moving inland to take down Atlanta. I mean, that's so unlikely that your mind isn't even conditioned to think that way. But the reason that it seems, seems like your world is getting less certain and less safe is because of media. Media is more fractured than it's ever been. It wants your attention. So with more competition with everything from YouTube videos to TikTok clips now competing with legacy media, you get introduced to more fear in order to get your attention. My gosh. I mean, is American life safer than ever? You can make the case that it's become too safe even. I've talked to you before about how things could very well be in safety overboard mode in real estate. Now here we talk about providing clean, safe, affordable and functional housing. But she should need GFCI outlets all over the place in your property, and carbon monoxide detectors and fire rated doors, even when their improvement to your safety is negligible.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:37:32) - American society at large is so ultra safe and in fact, there's even a term for this now it's called safety ism. Yeah, look it up. It's how excessive safety is becoming harmful to society. When you are on your last passenger plane flight at night and you just wanted to take a nice nap, or you wanted to get some sleep, did the pilot come on to the intercom system and wake you up, telling you to sit down and put your seatbelt on every time? Just a small amount of turbulence was being felt. Oh, there are endless instances like that where society's gotten so safe that it's just annoying. The last time that I was shopping at Lowe's, the home improvement store, a forklift driver was slowly driving the aisles really carefully. And besides just the forklift driver sitting on the seat, there was a second man, a flagger, that was out in front of him, walking, holding two little flags. So the shopping customers knew that a forklift. This coming. Like, that's such a wild hazard to human safety.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:38:37) - I mean, gosh, the gross inefficiency of that just to improve safety ever so slightly. Construction workers that have to wear hard hats outdoors in an open field. I mean, our society has become Uber safe. Now, don't get me wrong, some measure of safety is definitely a good thing, but I'm underscoring the fact that historically, this world that you're living in is ultra safe and ultra certain. And then within our investing world, take a look around what can be said to be certain and uncertain. Apple. They're the world's largest company by market cap at about $3 trillion. And their risk is that eventually they might fail to keep innovating. How about Bitcoin? Bitcoin could have government crackdowns or some other lack of certainties, their money in the bank and owning Treasury bonds. All right. That's fairly safe and certain. But you aren't getting any real yield there. And in a world that feels more uncertain and unsafe than it really is, bring it back to the positive attributes of being a real estate investor here.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:39:46) - You know, monetary inflation is a near certainty, and so is the fact that people will pay you rent if you put a roof over their heads. Certainty. It helps to be mindful that safety is the opposite of freedom, and that having security is the opposite of having opportunity. Hey, well, speaking of opportunity, join our investment coach Norris for Grizz Live event that is to night. You can join from the comfort of your own home. You get to select from one of the two options for Florida Income property. You can select either a 5.75% mortgage rate or the 224 program, which means two years of free property management. 2% of the purchase price. In closing cost credit to you and a generous $4,000 lease up fee credit. Sign up. It's free. It's our live event tonight, the 27th at 8:30 p.m. eastern, 530 Pacific. If you're a few days late, be sure to watch the replay soon. register@webinars.com to have a chance at putting some new Build Florida Income property in your portfolio.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:41:00) - Until next week, I'm your host, Keith Winfield. Don't quit your day dream.

 

Speaker 5 (00:41:08) - Nothing on this show should be considered specific, personal or professional advice. Please consult an appropriate tax, legal, real estate, financial or business professional for individualized advice. Opinions of guests are their own. Information is not guaranteed. All investment strategies have the potential for profit or loss. The host is operating on behalf of get Rich education LLC exclusively.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:41:36) - The preceding program was brought to you by your home for wealth building. Get rich education.




Direct download: GREepisode477_.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 4:00am EDT

Join our free Florida income properties webinar on Monday, November 27th for 5.75% mortgage rates at: GREwebinars.com

Home prices are up 4.5% annually through Q3. It’s the fastest growth rate in months.

Three out of ten renters are now age 55+, the most ever. Older renters are good for you: lower turnover, more quiet, more savings & income, and lower regulation compared to assisted living. 

Overall US population growth is slowing, from 1.2% a generation ago to 0.5% today. It’s expected to grow until 2080.

I discuss the DOJ crackdown on the NAR and real estate commissions. 1.6 million real estate agents could lose their jobs.

Apartment building rate caps have become super-expensive.

One of our real estate Investment Coaches, Naresh, joins us from Florida. 

Naresh tells us how to get 5.75% mortgage rates on new-build Florida income property at GREwebinars.com

Resources mentioned:

Show Notes:

GetRichEducation.com/476

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Timestamps:

 

The housing market stats (00:02:52)

Discussion about the current state of the housing market, including the 45% increase in home prices and the reasons for continued home price support.

 

Home price appreciation forecasts (00:05:28)

Talks about the predictions for future home price appreciation, with both CoreLogic and NAR expecting a 26% rise in home prices next year.

 

The impact of older renters (00:10:08)

Explains why older renters are desirable for property owners and landlords, highlighting their lower turnover rate and stability.

 

The Aging Population and Older Renters (00:11:15)

Discusses the benefits of older renters, such as lower mobility, more savings and income, and low regulation.

 

US Population Projection and Immigration (00:12:30)

Examines the projected population decline in the US by 2100 and the importance of immigration for continued growth.

 

Housing Demand and Household Size (00:17:12)

Explores the trend of fewer people living in each household and its impact on housing demand.

 

The timestamp's title (00:22:05)

Rising Costs of Rate Caps for Apartment Buildings

Discussion on how the cost of rate caps for larger apartment buildings has become prohibitively expensive.

 

The timestamp's title (00:25:23)

Real Estate Market Trends and Slowdown

Insights on the current state of the real estate market, including a slowdown in November and leveling off of home values and rents.

 

The timestamp's title (00:28:28)

Opportunity in Real Estate Market in 2024

Predictions for the real estate market in 2024, including a potential bottoming out of the market and a decrease in mortgage rates.

 

The decline in home values and the health of the economy (00:32:58)

Discussion on the decline in home values and the health of the economy, with reference to the 2008 financial crisis and current housing supply.

 

Short-term rentals and the potential for a decline (00:34:14)

Exploration of the decline in short-term rentals due to a decrease in travel and corporate expenses.

 

The impact of mortgage interest rates on home prices (00:35:19)

Analysis of the relationship between mortgage interest rates, economic slowdowns, and home prices, with a focus on potential rate cuts and their effects on the housing market.

 

The Florida In-Migration Stat (00:43:53)

Florida's astounding population growth and becoming the second most valuable property market in the US.

 

The Rate Buy Down Courtesy of the Builders (00:44:23)

Explaining the options of a 5.75% rate or the 2-2-4 program for property buyers in Florida.

 

Disclaimer and Closing (00:46:02)

A disclaimer about the show and a mention of the sponsor, Get Rich Education.

 

Complete Episode Transcript:

 

Speaker 1 (00:00:01) - Welcome to I'm your host Keith Weinhold told how price appreciation is up 4.5%, but there are signs that it is slowing down. Finally, learn more about our upcoming live event that you can join from the comfort of your own home today on get Rich education. When you want the best real estate and finance info. The modern internet experience limits your free articles access, and it's replete with paywalls. And you've got pop ups and push notifications and cookies. Disclaimers. Oh, at no other time in history has it been more vital to place nice, clean, free content into your hands that actually adds no hype value to your life? See, this is the golden age of quality newsletters, and I write every word of hours myself. It's got a dash of humor and it's to the point to get the letter. It couldn't be more simple text to 66866. And when you start the free newsletter, you'll also get my one hour fast real estate course completely free. It's called the Don't Quit Your Day dream letter and it wires your mind for wealth.

 

Speaker 1 (00:01:17) - Make sure you read it text to 66866. Text 266866.

 

Speaker 2 (00:01:29) - You're listening to the show that has created more financial freedom than nearly any show in the world. This is get rich education.

 

Speaker 1 (00:01:45) - We're going to go from Roxbury, Connecticut to Roxbury, Wisconsin, and across 188 nations worldwide. This is get rich education. I'm Keith Weinhold, GRE founder host of this very show since 2014, longtime real estate investor and Forbes Real Estate Council member. In fact, check out my latest article in Forbes for my work in research on the housing market. What we do here is by investment property with the bank's money, pay the debt with the tenants money, and then well, that's about it. In a sense. We enjoy life mostly. There will be some bumps along the way. The devil is in the details. Yeah, all those sus vibes that you got from the housing price apocalypse, doomsday, YouTubers. All of those vibes you had are validated by now. Just in time for a sweater weather. Respected research firm CoreLogic released their report with end of quarter housing stats nationwide.

 

Speaker 1 (00:02:52) - Home prices still haven't fallen. There was a healthy 4.5% in September of this year compared to September of last year. Yes, these real estate numbers always run behind a little bit. Well, that 4.5% increase that even includes distressed sales. And that is the fastest growth rate in quite a few months. And again, this is primarily due to a robust job market spiked inflation and housing inventory lows that just keep scraping along the sea bottom floor. So these fundamental reasons for continued home price support, I mean, it's the same stuff I've emphasized for over two years, even as I stated prominently back on television in November of 2021. And although that was avant garde at the time, it's really not in my personality to get smug until the incessant rumors today I told you so or anything like that. Well, the highest price gains this past year. They were concentrated in places that had, I suppose, the best autumn foliage this year, that is, most northeastern states. They are the big gainers now. There were some price declines in a few places.

 

Speaker 1 (00:04:08) - They were felt in just four western states and D.C. the four western states were Utah, Idaho, Montana and Wyoming. Now, see, in the pandemic, those states prices, they stretched broader than basketball star Victor Wembanyama. And today they are mildly correcting. But back to the base case here. The 46 of 50 states which experienced appreciation oven mitts are needed to handle the three hottest states led by Maine 10%, Connecticut also at 10%, and new Jersey, with a 9% gain. And when you break that down in the metro area, it was Miami that led with soaring 8.5% appreciation. And it's interesting are core investment areas of the Midwest in southeast, which I call the stable markets. They lived up to that moniker again, they appreciated moderately during the pandemic and still appreciating moderately today. And as we approach winter, expect home price depreciation to have its seasonal slowdown. That's what tends to happen each year. In fact, there's a slowdown in sales of volume two. There are just so few homes on the market, but it has gotten really slow lately.

 

Speaker 1 (00:05:28) - Now, I do like CoreLogic, the supplier of this information. They contribute their single family rent index to our industry. And that's so valuable because most rent data that you find out there is about apartments. CoreLogic predicts further home price appreciation over the next year of 2.6%. And similarly, the Nar. They expect home prices to rise 2.6% next year. Now, next month, you will hear me. Release gives home price appreciation forecasts right here on the show, and you're also going to learn how accurate my forecast was for this year that I made last year. Now, just last month, I made an in-person field trip to Cash Flow Country, the Midwestern United States. You've got some income property providers there that are still steadily sourcing properties to investors like you. But, you know, there are a few now where they're not even doing that lately because some providers are having trouble making the numbers work for you, the investor. Like, for example, on a single family rental that was built in the 1960s.

 

Speaker 1 (00:06:40) - Right. A somewhat older property. Where it is commanding, say 1650 rent. And this is a real example of rehab property that I visited in the Midwest, 1650 REM. Well, these property providers can get, say, $230,000 for that property if they sell it to an owner occupant instead of an investor like you. Well, with higher interest rates on an older property, you know, 1650 rent on a 230 K purchase price. And it doesn't work so great for you as an investor, although it might on a newbuild property. So that's why a provider like that is selling to owner occupants instead of investors like you, an owner occupant, they'll pay 230 K because they don't have to make it cash flow. It's their home. So instead of selling it to an investor like you were, say 190 K is the most that it would make sense for you to pay. Well, then sure, that provider is going to get 230 K from an owner occupant, so it makes more sense for that provider to sell it to the owner occupant as well.

 

Speaker 1 (00:07:44) - Now, one income property company that has in-house management and all that. I mean, this is a company that then is set up to serve investors. What they've done though is currently they're selling about 80% to retail homeowners, owner occupants in just 20% to turnkey real estate investors. For just that reason, owner occupants can pay more for it because of what's going on in the cycle. So in that particular Midwestern market, either mortgage interest rates must come down or rents must rise in order for it to make sense to you as an investor again. Now, later in the show today, you'll soon see that we've effectively found a way to make interest rates go back in time a couple of years when they were low, and how you can apply them to new Build income property. Today you'll learn exactly what that rate is, and this is fairly exciting. But yes, everyone wants to know where are mortgage rates going to go. And no one I mean absolutely no one knows where rates will go. Not your mortgage loan officer, not Janet Yellen, not your property provider.

 

Speaker 1 (00:08:55) - They don't know where mortgage rates are going to go, not the president of the United States, not Charlie Ridge, not a real estate agent, not Ron DeSantis and not me. No one knows where rates are going, of course. But we did learn something just about ten days ago. Fed Chair Jerome Powell said he's not confident. Those were his words in quotes, not confident that policymakers have done enough to curb inflation. Well, that right there. That is what is known as a hawkish comment in fed vernacular. If they haven't done enough to curb inflation, then that is what has renewed fears of more interest rate increases. Now your investment properties next tenant might be a grandparent with a flip phone. Roughly three out of ten renter households are now headed by people age 55 plus. After bottoming out in 2004, older renters have become a major share of the tenant population today, and I share this with you recently. If you're a reader of Art, Don't Quit Your Day Dream letter. And by the way, welcome to all of our new letter readers.

 

Speaker 1 (00:10:08) - We recently had a few thousand new Don't Quit Your Adrian Letter subscribers, our weekly email newsletter. Welcome here to the podcast. Now as I'll explain why in a moment you should like and embrace older renters. Now, first things first. Understand that as a property owner or landlord, you cannot age discriminate in your advertising or in your tenant screening. But all right, once you're done poking fun at their jitterbug or their track phone, understand that older renters, they are desirable. And by the way, our jitter, bugs and track phones still made us think that at least one of those two phone models is still made. At least one of them is a flip phone. Not completely sure, but anyway, yes, now that we know that there are more older renters here, about 3 in 10 American renters now age 55 plus, okay, older renters, hey, they really are desirable for a bunch of reasons. You're going to have lower turnover. Okay? Older people tend to stay put. There's a low transient rate.

 

Speaker 1 (00:11:15) - They have a low mobility rate. That's another way to say it. Also all the renters, they tend to be more quiet. They're less likely to throw three keg ragers no beer pong, no headbutt dents in the drywall. And when it comes to savings and income, they have more of it and expect low regulation. Unlike something like assisted living, there is no special government permitting or any specialized staff that's needed. So. There are some big reasons why this growing group of older renters that is good for you as an income property owner. So to review what you've learned, that's due to lower mobility. They're more quiet, they have more savings in income and there's low regulation. And I'm going to say that personally, I've come to appreciate my older friends more as time goes on. And I recently realized that I have some of my best conversations with them. But they won't talk me into the jitterbug. They can't talk me into giving up my life without Instagram on an iPhone. Many older adults, they don't want the hassle of homeownership and others they are just feeling the weight of dreadful homebuyer affordability, just like everyone else.

 

Speaker 1 (00:12:30) - And one major reason for why there are more older renters. If you're trying to find a reason why it's not due to some seismic behavioral shift, it's just the simple fact that the American population keeps getting older overall. Overall, we have an aging population. And by the way, is 55 that old? I mean, the 55 plus age group, that can mean a lot of things. And 85 year old and 55 year old lived very different lives with different activity levels, of course. But is 55 that old? I don't know, I know that you only need to be age 50 to be an AARP member. I guess 55 sounds old, because you can say that you're pretty likely to be in the second half of your life, but maybe if you divide life up into thirds, you could say then that 55 is in the middle third, and then therefore 55 could be seen as middle aged and not old, I suppose. And for some reason, it's systemic in American culture that people don't seem to want to be called old for whatever reason.

 

Speaker 1 (00:13:35) - It has a mildly pejorative connotation, but it is a group of people with their own separate habits, and these people are more likely to be using trekking poles when they go hiking, I guess. And I don't agree that age is just a number. I mean, come on, age means something in 85 year old men. They are not going to qualify to play in the NBA All-Star game. They're not going to be the most agile defensive back on an NFL field. So that takeaway here is that more renters are older. Embrace it. It's good if you're a listener but still don't have our valuable don't quit your day dream letter, which wires your mind for wealth, and it updates you on real estate trends. You can get it for free right now. Just text message group to 66866. That's green to 66866. We've been talking about the aging population here on get Rich education episode 476. All right. But how about the overall US population trend. This is something that you might have seen elsewhere since it transcends real estate.

 

Speaker 1 (00:14:46) - But I'll give you my real estate take on it too. All right. So the latest Census Bureau figures, they show that the US population is projected to contract to shrink by the year 2100, which would be only the second decline in the nation's history. And the other decline occurred in the 1918 Spanish flu and World War one. For those reasons, annual population growth rates, they have dropped from about 1.2% a generation ago to just one half of 1% today, and the culprits are declining birth rates and that aforementioned aging population. All right. The US has the world's third biggest population, and it could be demoted to fourth or fifth by Pakistan or Nigeria as soon as the middle of this century. So this anticipated population contraction, that means that immigration could become vital for any hopes of continued growth. And yet understand the US is still growing faster than a lot of other high income nations like Japan and Italy, that are already losing population. All right, so the US population is projected to shrink by 2100.

 

Speaker 1 (00:16:02) - The more important thing for you to remember as a real estate investor that's going to need a population to drive demand, is that our population is still expected to grow every year until about the year 2080 by most every model out there. So still 50 to 60 years of population growth. And then it isn't until later 2100 that is expected to decline. And of course, birth rates and immigration rates are bigger unknowns than the death rate out there in the future. Just estimating how soon our population is going to peak, but it's going to be a. While many decades. And then, of course, even in 50, 60 years, if the overall American population stops growing. All right, well, it'll probably still grow in some regions. And, you know, I wonder if Florida will still be growing late this century. It seems like it never stops there with population growth. And also it's not just about overall population growth when it comes to housing demand. It's how people choose to live within a certain population growth rate.

 

Speaker 1 (00:17:12) - Okay, with a population of 100, if there are two people per household, well, they can be housed with 50 homes, but if there is just one person per household, well then it's going to take 100 homes to house those same 100 people, no longer 50 homes. All right. And one trend that's made for surging American housing demand is that you have fewer people living in each household. That's how people choose to live today. So keep that in mind. You see a small half of 1% annual growth rate in more recent years, but there are a lot of numbers behind the numbers. Now, you might wonder what I think about the federal jury that recently found the National Association of Realtors and large brokerages, and how they conspire to keep commissions artificially high. What's that really mean? Well, what it means is more flexibility for buyers. I mean, under the current system, sellers pay their own agents commission of roughly 5 to 6%, and then that 5 to 6% that's shared with the buyer's agent.

 

Speaker 1 (00:18:18) - Well, if sellers now get billion from paying buyer's agents, well, then buyers would have to start to pay their own agent if they choose to use one. And a buyer could do that at either a flat rate or an hourly rate. But first time homebuyers, they could really feel the crunch, or that could become a bigger issue for those wannabe first time homebuyers that are having a hard time amassing the savings to pay for an agent on top of their down payment and their closing costs. Just another whammy for those wannabe first time homebuyers. They keep getting beaten down, and that's what could put some upward pressure on rents. But I don't think it would really be much as a result of that alone. And another consequence of this is that there would be less commission paid by sellers. I mean, the way it works is that in order to advertise a listing on the database, the MLS, the Multiple Listing Service, are that MLS that populates real estate websites like Zillow and Redfin? Well, in order for that to happen, sellers in most markets they have to agree to pay the buyer's agent's commission as well as their own sellers agents commission.

 

Speaker 1 (00:19:31) - Well, that's the practice that could be scrapped and that could spell trouble for real estate agents. A lot of people have estimated that $30 billion could potentially leave the industry, and some estimate that 1.6 million agents could lose their jobs. See, the way that the system had worked in the past is that one reason that the seller pays the entire 5 to 6% commission for both sides is because it's usually easy for them to do that, since sellers are the ones that have the equity in their property and the buyers often don't. So this could make homeownership even more difficult to qualify for. I mean, if first time homebuyers already had to jump over a four foot hurdle, now it's perhaps a five foot hurdle if this all happens. But there are still legal battles ongoing there in the real estate agent commissions case. Now, as I've talked about before, with this American housing shortage, it's the affordable housing segment that has high demand and is so drastically undersupplied. Now just get this understand that from 2019 until today, the price of a new car rose 22%, the price of a median home rose 42%.

 

Speaker 1 (00:20:54) - And the mobile home price, which is about the most affordable option for housing that rose by a giant 58%. I mean, wow, that is a testament to the major housing shortage at the affordable price points. That really, really spells it out. And if you're confident that the long term play is to provide good, affordable housing like we are here at, you know, there are more reasons to look at loading up on properties like duplexes and triplexes. And for plex's where you can get fixed rates now. And if you wanted to, you could refinance to long term fixed rates later. Now to buy a rate cap for a larger apartment building. That has just balloon in expense for you? Yes, a rate cap buying the what's basically like insurance you buy that puts a ceiling on how high your interest rate can go on larger apartment buildings. You don't have to do that with 1 to 4 unit property. You can just get fixed rate certainty. Now, a couple years ago, rate caps for large apartment buildings, they were pretty affordable.

 

Speaker 1 (00:22:05) - They were inexpensive. It took 40 K, 50 or 100 K to ensure that your rate wouldn't adjust too high. And then once it did, of course the rate cap insurance would kick in. But that same rate cap this year could be nearly $1 million. Yeah. See, a couple years ago, the $10 million loan, you could have bought a 2% rate cap for 60 to 75 K in three years coverage. Well, if you'd want to extend that this year, just a one year renewal, you could probably spend 350 K. Well, that has become prohibitively expensive for a lot of larger apartment buildings. And coming up, one of our in-house investment coaches in the race is going to be joining us from Florida, where they're building new construction duplexes and for plex's affordably. And they're selling them to investors like us at just a 5.75% interest rate. That's straight ahead. I'm Keith Winfield, you're listening to get Rich education. Jerry, listeners can't stop talking about their service from Ridge Lending Group and MLS.

 

Speaker 1 (00:23:18) - 42056. They've provided our tribe with more loans than anyone. They're truly a top lender for beginners and veterans. It's where I go to get my own loans for single family rental property up to four plex. So start your prequalification and you can chat with President Charlie Ridge. Personally, though, even deliver your custom plan for growing your real estate portfolio. Start at Ridge Lending Group. You know, I'll just tell you, for the most passive part of my real estate investing, personally, I put my own dollars with Freedom Family Investments because their funds pay me a stream of regular cash flow in returns are better than a bank savings account up to 12%. Their minimums are as low as 25 K. You don't even need to be accredited for some of them. It's all backed by real estate. And I kind of love how the tax benefit of doing this can offset capital gains in your W-2 jobs income. They've always given me exactly their stated return paid on time. So it's steady income, no surprises while I'm sleeping or just doing the things I love.

 

Speaker 1 (00:24:29) - For a little insider tip, I've invested in their power fund to get going on that text family to 66866. Oh, and this isn't a solicitation. If you want to invest where I do, just go ahead and text family to six, 686, six. This is Rich dad advisor Tom Wheelwright. Listen to get Rich education with Keith Reinhold and don't quit your daydream. It's always valuable for you, the listener and me as well. To have a market discussion with one of our in-house investment coaches were doing that today. Naresh, welcome back onto the show.

 

Speaker 3 (00:25:23) - Is Keith looking forward to talking?

 

Speaker 1 (00:25:26) - Let us know what's happening from your view. I mean, give us your perspective on the real estate market today and any drivers or trends.

 

Speaker 3 (00:25:35) - Look, Keith, I've been working as a real estate investment coach for about four and a half years now. I've been a real estate investor for about six and a half years. I've been working with for two years now, and it's great because it's almost like I'm a leading indicator on what's going on with inflation, what's going on with the housing market, because I see it in front of my eyes in real time.

 

Speaker 3 (00:26:02) - I have it on my spreadsheets that are in front of me. Of all the different properties that were sold or inquiries that we get from clients right now, I am actually seeing a slowdown this month of November compared to the first ten days or the first 20 days of the previous month. There's definitely somewhat of a slowdown. We're getting more complaints or nagging from clients saying, oh, I'm not able to rent out my property for as much as I thought I'd be able to, or my property's been vacant for longer than usual. What this is telling me key is, at least in my state, look, home values vary based on geography. We know that home values are like the weather. The weather is not the same everywhere. For the most part, I think you're going to see that national home values peaked a month or two ago. Rents certainly peaked about two months ago. What I mean by that is we saw rents go up precipitous just going up, up, up since January 2021 nonstop. And they finally peaked.

 

Speaker 3 (00:27:17) - And when I say peak home values, peak rents don't mean that they've crashed. I don't mean that they've gone down. They've just peaked and leveled off. So I haven't seen a decline in rents. I haven't seen a decline in home values from two months ago. I'm just saying they've leveled off. And so I actually expect this inflation or I expect inflation CPI moving forward to go back down. I know that we did see a blip up for a few months, but I think we're going to start seeing things go back down as the fed old rate study appears. They're done raising for good, and they're just going to ride it out with how it is currently. And then once unemployment crosses, probably 4.5%, if at all, that does cross 4.5%, that's when they're going to start cutting. If unemployment crosses 4%, then they're probably just going to wait it out until inflation hits that 2% target. And so what does this all mean for real estate. What does this mean for interest rates. Low interest rates I've talked about peaks.

 

Speaker 3 (00:28:28) - We saw peak mortgage rates. Also it looks like mortgage rates peaked. And they've slowly crept back down not significantly to a point where as an investor you're like, oh let me jump in. No. But think we saw mortgage rates as well. So again, what does this all mean. This means 2024. We're almost a month away from 2024. I think it's going to be a great opportunity to jump in, because you'll be able to catch the real estate market that's going to hit some type of bottom in 2024. You're going to see mortgage rates go back down in 2024. That also means today because remember, Keith, I've come on your show before talking about incentives that providers who we work with, partners who we know personally and who we've worked with for many, many years, we've been offering incentives that make up for this high inflation, that make up for the higher interest rates. And those incentives are very likely going to be gone in 2024 as mortgage rates go back down, as the home values maybe decline slightly.

 

Speaker 1 (00:29:39) - We want to talk about some of those incentives later, about how providers are buying down the interest rate for you on rental property, but rates, I think perhaps the most interesting thing you said, the thing that I didn't expect is that you're talking to some investors out there where they're telling you about how they have more or longer vacancies than they had expected. I didn't think that I would hear that from you. Is that a pretty small sample size, or is that passed by apartments versus single family homes or entry level versus luxury or anything else?

 

Speaker 3 (00:30:13) - I'm talking about single homes, so can't speak for apartments. I'm talking about cookie cutter, entry level, single family homes. This is in multiple different markets. So not just in one city. This is in multiple cities states. We're seeing vacancies. We're seeing, like I said, the rent growth rate that was previously being used six months ago, eight months ago, the property managers have had to use a lower rate because there's been a decline. So it's not surprising.

 

Speaker 3 (00:30:44) - There's just no way that the country would would have been able to survive with rents going up the way they were going up with home values going up the way that we're going up. So there was bound to be a stoppage. And so we've seen that stoppage in home values, we've seen that stoppage in rents. And when I say stoppage again, not a decline in rents, not a significant decline in home values. But they leveled off from their peaks. And that's just how the business cycle works. Every 30 years or so when we see super high inflation, it's not surprising that I'm seeing this. But this is what's going on in the market right now, from Florida to Tennessee and Alabama to Ohio, in Missouri, Kansas City.

 

Speaker 1 (00:31:31) - For about five months in a row now, we have seen wages be higher than inflation. But of course that's just stated CPI inflation. And then there is quite a lag effect there too. If wages do exceed inflation, when will that eventually catch up to higher rents? We don't really know.

 

Speaker 1 (00:31:50) - But one thing we do know over the long term is rents are historically very, very stable, even more stable than home prices. It was so unusual when rents were up about 15% year over year, a year or two ago. You don't typically see that rents tend to stay stable, and they sure are stabilizing lately. What do you have any other thoughts as you look around the market and race? Because you often talk to our followers in there, they get a hold of you for you to help lead them through contracts and connect them with the right properties and providers that can meet their goals. So what are our followers asking about?

 

Speaker 3 (00:32:27) - Our followers right now are fearful, which is very common. Fear always rules people's minds and they're fearful of a crash. And look, there are certain real estate asset classes, commercial real estate, which you've talked about for a while, is going through a decline right now and could be going through a major crash as many of these commercial real estate owners default on their mortgages or their loans, their commercial loans, there is a concern that there could be a crash in the housing market.

 

Speaker 3 (00:32:58) - Meredith Whitney, who really famous real estate banker, I believe the only woman to call the 2008 financial crisis. She called it back in seven. Meredith Whitney came out a couple of weeks ago and said, there's going to be a decline in home values, and I'm here to tell you that there has been a classic line on values. And will that continue? It could continue where there's a, again, a slight decline. So don't see a crash coming. The reason is because I feel like the economy, the banks are much healthier today than they were. And let's say at 2007, the people who have been laid off, we're going to see unemployment continue to go up. It's not the 10% plus that we saw during the pandemic or the really we reached close to that 2008, 2009 or so. I just don't see something systemic to where there's going to be a housing market crash. And it's all about supply. Housing supply is still very low. So until the supply catches up to the demand, think the real estate market is going to stay healthy.

 

Speaker 3 (00:34:14) - And if you're looking to buy an old over a 30 year period, if you're looking to buy and rent for cashflow, it's still a great time. Right now, there's just certain asset classes. Like I said, commercial real estate. Maybe wait for the crash. They're short term rentals. The worst time to get into short term rentals would have been a year or one and a half years ago, 18 to 20 months ago. That space has declined because there has been a decline in travel, leisure, airfare, corporate expenses, the corporate trips. There has been a decline. So we don't promote those often. They're available. What? We don't promote them often, but that's another asset class that could be ripe for, I want to say, a crash, but a big decline when it comes to cookie cutter, entry level Single-Family homes. I just don't see this huge crash that people have been waiting for over the last 15 years.

 

Speaker 1 (00:35:13) - Right. As you know, I've talked extensively about how it's virtually impossible for that to happen.

 

Speaker 1 (00:35:19) - And yes, everyone wants to know what's coming. It surely has been a consensus among analysts and others that mortgage interest rates have peaked and or the fed funds rate is done increasing in this cycle. Many seem to think that next year, if rates come down, that that is really going to push home prices through the roof. I don't know if that's necessarily true, because typically a cutting of rates coincides with an economic slowdown or a recession. So I think a cutting of rates next year that could result in a moderate price increase. But of course, we have to remember that some of that supply is going to come once rates go down, you will have a few more people motivated to sell. You also have a lot more people motivated to buy and that can qualify as well. But the rates think a lot of people really in this cycle lately, when they've seen higher mortgage interest rates maybe than some people have seen in their entire investment life, you know, they feel like they kind of want to get some sort of break, but they sort of want to wait and see what happens with the market.

 

Speaker 1 (00:36:20) - But we actually have something to talk about here where they can get a break. They don't have to wait and see with what's going on in the market. And that's with what is taking place in Florida.

 

Speaker 3 (00:36:33) - That's exactly what's taking place in Florida. We work with a provider who is going to be on with us. We're hosting a webinar with them about a special 5.75% interest rate. The lowest interest rate that we see across the board with any provider we work with from Alabama to Texas, etcetera. So they're coming on our webinar. They're going to promote and discuss that 5.75% program that they have, as well as a 2 to 4 program. That's two years of free property management, 2% closing cost credit into $4,000 release fee. You might say, well, why do I need a $4,000 release a credit? Because their best properties or highest cash flowing properties. Highest returning properties are quads and duplexes. So these are huge breaks that will reduce the amount of money you need to bring to close and look. If you're a high net worth or if you're a high income earner sucking it up and paying the 9% interest rate today.

 

Speaker 3 (00:37:37) - If that's what you decide to opt for with the 224 program, 9% interest rate, or 8% interest rate today, it'll save you on your taxes, the mortgage interest tax deductible, and in 5 or 6 years, you can just refinance, most likely at an ultra low rate, maybe even sooner than that. So still, there are some really good deals. If you work through us, then we can help you find some really, really good programs and incentives so that it's like going back to 2020 or 2021, when interest rates were super low, or when there was less cash that you had for bringing to the same level. So we have that definitely recommend that people check out this webinar. It's great webinars. Com you can register for it over there. webinars.com. I'm going to be on it's Monday November 27th. That's Monday, November 27th at 8:30 p.m. Eastern Time. So people on the West Coast can finish up work, attend the event. People on the East Coast can finish up dinner, put their kids to sleep and attend the event.

 

Speaker 3 (00:38:43) - So I look forward to seeing everybody there. It's a special, special webinar, special deals, special promotions only through the average education.

 

Speaker 1 (00:38:54) - So the 5.75% rate, if I remember from previously narration, it's a ten year fixed rate and a 30 year amortization at those terms. And then is one choosing between the 5.75 rate and the 224 plan that you described. Is it one or the other? Can you get.

 

Speaker 3 (00:39:12) - One or the other? It's one or the other. Because to get that 5.75% rate, yeah, the builder is paying the lender a lot of money. And to lower those points, they're buying points to to get you the investor that rate. So it's one or the other. And by the way, that 224 program the purchase price is negotiable. So that's also why I like that 2 to 4 program. Because you can go back and forth and I can help you out negotiate the price, maybe shape 10 to 15 maybe $20,000 if it's a high ticket item off the purchase price. So makes the numbers look even better.

 

Speaker 3 (00:39:54) - That's my favorite program, the 5.75% program. That might be right for some other people, so that's fair to.

 

Speaker 1 (00:40:02) - Else about the property prices and types.

 

Speaker 3 (00:40:06) - So this provider we work with has single families, duplexes, four plex quads all available. The price points are anywhere from $250,000 to $800,000. Everything is new construction. That's also in flux, as in the single family is just cash flowing much. So I would say go for a duplex or a quad. Duplexes are around $400,000, give or take 20,000 over under, and quads are somewhere between 650 to $800,000.

 

Speaker 1 (00:40:45) - Okay, so these are brand new build properties in Florida. So yeah we're talking about entry level rental homes here. The asset type that seems to have the greatest dearth of supply in housing, entry level single family homes. You just have such a good chance to own an in-demand asset that everyone is going to want over time here. Do you have any last thoughts about this webinar trace, which you're going to help put on for people? That way the participants can ask you questions.

 

Speaker 1 (00:41:16) - They can ask the provider questions, any question they want to, things about the physical property, things about just how they bought down your rate to 5.75% for you, or how they can do the 224 program for you. Those are some of the benefits of attending. You can have your question answered in real time there with narration. Do you have any last thoughts about this event that's taking place on Monday? The 27?

 

Speaker 3 (00:41:39) - Well, you definitely want to register at Jerry webinars. Jerry webinars. We already have more than 50 people registered and now this episode is out. I'm sure we're going to get another 100 or so. Like you said, people can come on and ask some questions, actually talk to us, interact with us. Last time they wanted to these webinars, it went like 2.5 hours. People were having such a great time. We went into the wee hours of the night just talking to all sorts of folks, answering questions. It's super interactive, really educational. The best part is completely free and you get goodies and perks and incentives back in return for ten.

 

Speaker 1 (00:42:17) - Now, look, I know that some of these incentives have got to sound terrific to you, the listener and viewer here. I just want to pull back and take a look at things. More fundamentally. This is truly investing. This is not speculating. You own a piece of Florida land in a house constructed of commodities. On top of that land, from wood to steel to concrete. You already know about Florida's In-migration. We've talked about that at nauseam on the show here, and it's not speculative because you're purchasing something for rent production, not a speculative endeavor. Over the long term, people will pay you in order to live in a property that you provide to them. I mean, this is the sort of thing where you could even if say, you have a spouse or a mother that has nothing to do with real estate knowledge, they don't know anything about it. You can explain this to your spouse or your mother and they would understand. So it's easy to understand where your income comes from.

 

Speaker 1 (00:43:12) - It's really fundamental. I don't know how long the 5.75% rates are going to last, because this same provider had a lower rate a few months ago. I told you then I didn't know how long it was going to last and it didn't last. Now it's 5.75%, which is still a great rate. I really encourage you. Sign up. It's free. It's our live event next Monday night, the 27th at 8:30 p.m. eastern, 530 Pacific. Again, you can register@webinars.com. What a great update in race. Thanks so much for coming back into the show.

 

Speaker 3 (00:43:46) - Thanks, skeet.

 

Speaker 1 (00:43:53) - If you're unsure about making it on the live event on the 27th, but it interests you, sign up and we might be able to get you access to the replay, but you want to watch it soon because the properties available are limited. And again, I don't know how long the 5.75% rate will last. You think you've heard every amazing Florida In-migration stat by now? Well perhaps not. In the latest year over year, Florida saw 740,000 people moved there.

 

Speaker 1 (00:44:23) - Yeah, basically three quarters of a million in just one year. That is truly astounding. That's clearly the most of any state in the country. And with all the growth, Florida's property market became recently the second most valuable in the US last year that bumped New York down to third place. That's according to Zillow. So this population growth is leading to a prosperity increase in the value of Florida property. So I think a lot of people get focused on these things, like wondering if the fed will raise rates another quarter point at their next meeting, and if that's going to show up in mortgage rates. And they wonder about the mortgage market in the future, and it feels like something that you cannot control. But now you can with this rate, buy down courtesy of the builders. So joining us on the webinar to learn all about it. Again, it's all new build and we make that really clear and spell it out for you. In next week's live event, you get to select from one of the two options.

 

Speaker 1 (00:45:29) - To make it clear here, either a 5.75% rate or the 224 program, which means two years of free property management, 2% of the purchase price and closing cost credit, and a $4,000 lease up fee credit. Sign up. It's free. It's our live event next Monday night, the 27th at 8:30 p.m. eastern at 530 Pacific. Register at GRC webinars dot com. Until next week. I'm your host, Keith Weinhold. Don't quit your day. Great.

 

Speaker 4 (00:46:02) - Nothing on this show should be considered specific, personal or professional advice. Please consult an appropriate tax, legal, real estate, financial or business professional for individualized advice. Opinions of guests are their own. Information is not guaranteed. All investment strategies have the potential for profit or loss. The host is operating on behalf of get Rich education LLC exclusively.

 

Speaker 1 (00:46:30) - The preceding program was brought to you by your home for wealth building. Get rich education.




Direct download: GREepisode476_.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 4:00am EDT

I don’t keep much money in a savings account, money market account, or treasury bonds. They only pay 5% interest.

Instead, I get 10-12% cash returns and semi-liquidity by private lending on real estate and operations with Freedom Family Investments.

My guest, the company CEO, Dani Lynn Robison and I discuss how it works. They’re a family of 7 real estate-centric companies.

They pay me 10-12% on a loan that I make to them that funds their real estate and business operations. You can too. It’s called their Master Note. 

Text FAMILY to 66866.

These private lending programs have just a $25K minimum, accredited and non-accredited, returns up to 12%.

Rather than getting in on the equity side here, which is usual, you’re getting in on the debt side. This way, you’re more liquid than when you buy property yourself.

We discuss 3 vital investor questions: Who do you trust? Where do you begin? What’s the best path for you?

Dani Lynn & I discuss a good investor outcome. We also discuss how when things went wrong, the investor/lender still got completely repaid.

I can personally tell you that they’ve always paid me on-time and in full.

Some people don’t like to share where they personally invest, but this could really help you.

Vocabulary terms explained: financial runway, demand depositor, time depositor, vertical integration.

If a high-yield passive return of 10-12% sounds interesting to you, text FAMILY to 66866.

Resources mentioned:

Show Notes:

GetRichEducation.com/475

For 10-12% returns with Master Notes with 

Freedom Family Investments:

Text “FAMILY” to 66866

Dani Lynn Robinon’s book, “Get Real”:

https://www.amazon.com/Get-Real-Understand-Estate-Investing/dp/B0BZF99S5K

For access to properties or free help with a

GRE Investment Coach, start here:

GREmarketplace.com

Get mortgage loans for investment property:

RidgeLendingGroup.com or call 855-74-RIDGE 

or e-mail: info@RidgeLendingGroup.com

Invest with Freedom Family Investments. 

You get paid first: Text ‘FAMILY’ to 66866

Will you please leave a review for the show? I’d be grateful. Search “how to leave an Apple Podcasts review” 

Top Properties & Providers:

GREmarketplace.com

GRE Free Investment Coaching:

GREmarketplace.com/Coach

Best Financial Education:

GetRichEducation.com

Get our wealth-building newsletter free—

text ‘GRE’ to 66866

Our YouTube Channel:

www.youtube.com/c/GetRichEducation

Follow us on Instagram:

@getricheducation

Keith’s personal Instagram:

@keithweinhold

 

Timestamps:

 

The importance of increasing income (00:01:28)

The speaker emphasizes the importance of increasing income rather than cutting expenses and discusses the concept of a financial runway.

 

The need for liquidity in real estate investing (00:04:05)

The speaker explains the need for liquidity in real estate investing and recommends having 3 to 5% of the total value of a real estate portfolio in liquid funds.

 

Investing in residential real estate for strong returns (00:06:44)

The speaker discusses the benefits of lending to the long-term stability of residential real estate and related businesses, highlighting the potential for strong returns.

 

The acquisition and growth of Freedom Family Investments (00:11:35)

This topic covers the growth of Freedom Family Investments, including the number of units acquired, funds raised, and the value of their portfolio.

 

The concept of vertical integration in real estate (00:12:38)

This topic explains the concept of vertical integration in the business world, specifically in the context of real estate companies. It discusses how vertically integrated companies have more control over their supply chain.

 

The Master Note Program by Freedom Family Investments (00:15:45)

This topic introduces the Master Note Program, a lending program offered by Freedom Family Investments. It explains the program's features, including high yield returns, liquidity, and the option to compound interest.

 

Private Money Lending and Investing in Materials (00:20:57)

Danny explains the process of private money lending and how investors can invest in materials for discounted prices.

 

Expansion of Opportunities for Passive and Active Investors (00:23:34)

Danny discusses the various opportunities available for passive and active investors, including turnkey real estate, private money lending, and funds.

 

Minimum Investments and Accredited vs Non-Accredited Investors (00:26:22)

Danny explains the minimum investment amounts and the options for accredited and non-accredited investors, as well as the different investment opportunities available for each category.

 

The trust question (00:30:14)

Importance of trust in investment, transparency, and how to choose trustworthy partners.

 

The worst deal (00:32:21)

A story about a bad investment deal, the importance of honoring commitments, and how volume can mitigate risks.

 

Get Real (00:35:28)

Introduction to the "Get Real" book series, the importance of authenticity and transparency in real estate investing, and the power of sharing failures.

 

Time Deposit Accounts and Demand Deposit Accounts (00:38:36)

Explanation of the differences between time deposit accounts (like CDs) and demand deposit accounts (like checking and savings accounts).

 

Vertical Integration in Business Strategy (00:38:36)

Definition and explanation of vertical integration as a business strategy where a company takes ownership of multiple stages of its supply chain.

 

Financial Runway (00:38:36)

Definition of financial runway as the amount of time one can maintain their lifestyle without the need for a paycheck.

 

Complete Episode Transcript:

 

Speaker 1 (00:00:01) - Welcome to. I'm your host, Keith Weinhold. Why settle for growing your money at a 5% interest rate in a savings account, money market account, or treasury bonds? You could earn double that or more. In fact, we're talking about exactly where I invest my more liquid dollars myself, often with a real estate centric backing. Today on get Rich education.

 

Speaker 2 (00:00:28) - You're listening to the show that has created more financial freedom than nearly any show in the world. This is get rich education.

 

Speaker 1 (00:00:51) - We're going from Hartford, England, to Hartford, Connecticut, and across 188 nations worldwide. I'm Keith Weinhold, you're listening to episode 475 of the Get Rich Education Podcast, the Voice of real estate investing since 2014. Don't live below your means. Grow your means. It's in your genes. Most people tie up so much life energy in their job, and they're scared to death of losing their job because it provides everything to them, not just their salary, but their health care, their retirement, and even who they are.

 

Speaker 1 (00:01:28) - And then even their very identity is in their job now. So that might be okay, especially if you truly get a deep existential meaning from your job and you get that sense. In fact, in that case, thank you. You're probably serving society, and I might be a beneficiary of that. But now we isolate the fine part of your job. It is a real mystery to me how so many study, how work works, so few study how money works. And yet money is the main reason that people go to work. In the personal finance world, it's more important to increase your income, then cut your expenses. Spend more time building a cash flow statement. See that's constructive to your standard of living, not a budget which is destructive to your quality of life. Think of residual income in terms of what I'd like to call your financial runway. Your financial runway. Yeah, it is that amount of time you can maintain your lifestyle without the need for a paycheck. So the length of your financial runway is measured in time, and it is critical for you to lengthen this runway if you hope to retire early and it can dramatically reduce your stress.

 

Speaker 1 (00:02:49) - Level two well, that can create outcomes so that you can say, go on a super long vacation and make your ostentatious display of time wealth as it is now. At some point in your life you probably listen to and had. The real estate pays five ways epiphany. And it is really compelling to then keep the majority of your capital invested there, for sure. But you likely don't want to keep absolutely 100% of your dollars there because you need some liquidity to fund the operations of your daily life. In fact, you can make the case that you need more liquidity than a non real estate investor does. Now, a six month emergency fund is the rule of thumb for laypeople, but on top of that is real estate investor. It's also a good idea to have 3 to 5% of the total value of your real estate portfolio in liquid funds. Now, a lot of people hold liquidity in a bank, and you do that as either a demand depositor or a time deposit. In fact, in banking vernacular, do you know the difference between demand deposits and time deposits? Well, demand deposit accounts, they include things like checking accounts, savings accounts and money market accounts.

 

Speaker 1 (00:04:05) - And they're called demand deposits because they allow you to withdraw your money from the account whenever you want to. That is different from time deposit accounts, like a CD, which requires you to deposit your money for a specific length of time. So that's the difference between a demand deposit and a time deposit. So time deposits like a CDS certificate of deposit. Therefore they pay you a high your rate of interest in exchange for your reduced liquidity. Now with that understanding, let's take a time out here to remind ourselves of something. When money flees the stock market, which it often does, it usually ends up in bonds as demand for bonds goes up, their interest rates go down. Then, as bond interest rates go down, investors go back to stocks in pursuit of yield and everything reverses. So that is an ebb and flow of funds, which creates a degree of equilibrium. But it also moderates your return. And you're also never going to get in and out at just the right time trying to time those markets.

 

Speaker 1 (00:05:22) - So when it comes to your dollars that you don't have being actively leveraging real estate, you know you can't hit every note in the symphony yourself with just one investment vehicle. It takes an orchestra full of your prosperity, all your dollars, all playing their notes boldly to help you hear the complexity of the. Position. Well, when you park money at an everyday bank or a treasury bond. Either way, you're now making a loan and oftentimes the exact way that that loan is backed your collateral that's actually unknown to you. Well, instead of that, what we're talking about today is that you can lend to the long term stability of residential real estate and related businesses and still get a strong return. And yes, I'm focused on the resilience of residential, just like we have here at from day one. Now, when it comes to something more precarious, really touchy section like office real estate. We work. They're expected to seek chapter 11 bankruptcy protection after that embattled office space company missed interest payments that it owed to its bondholders.

 

Speaker 1 (00:06:44) - So instead, you can keep your more liquid and semi liquid dollars working for you as a loan to someone else in residential, and enjoy some of the condensation on that pipe with returns that are about double what you can get on a 5% savings account today. Now, today it is the right time to talk about returns of 10% plus, because just a year or two ago, we were in this inversion where inflation was higher than interest rates. That's atypical. In fact, in June of last year, CPI inflation peaked just over 9%. And you got to ask yourself, how attractive is a 10% return on your liquid dollars? If inflation is 9%, well, that's not attractive to you at all because you real rate of return would only be 1% in that case. But now with inflation down, you can get a higher real return again. Today, interest rates are higher than stated CPI inflation and even the true rate of inflation. If you know where to look for that and you have a sense for what that is today, I'll help you know where to look, because it's exactly where I invest my liquidity today.

 

Speaker 1 (00:08:02) - See, in order to do this, it's really investing like a billionaire. And you don't need to have some wealthy sounding name like Brandon Meriweather, Rudiger, Bertram Lawrence, Perry Bottom or Carruthers Davenport. You don't need any names like that. You just need the knowledge. No, I guess I won't call you Carruthers if you preferred, but I think you'd sound like a guy that blows rings of smoke into people's faces. And I don't think that's a good look for you. We'll talk to the custodian of my funds here shortly. I make private loans to her company. She and I both serve on the Forbes Real Estate Council. She is a strong visionary, and she's not afraid to discuss problems either. That's something I really like. In fact, I'll be sure that comes up. This could really help you today. That's next. I'm Keith Weinhold in your listening to get Rich education. Diary listeners can't stop talking about their service from Ridge Lending Group and MLS. 42056. They've provided our tribe with more loans than anyone.

 

Speaker 1 (00:09:10) - They're truly a top lender for beginners and veterans. It's where I go to get my own loans for single family rental property up to four plex. So start your prequalification and you can chat with President Caeli Ridge personally, or even deliver your custom plan for growing your real estate portfolio. Start at Ridge Lending Group. You know, I'll just tell you, for the most passive part of my real estate investing, personally, I put my own dollars with Freedom Family Investments because their funds pay me a stream of regular cash flow in returns are better than a bank savings account up to 12%. Their minimums are as low as 25 K. You don't even need to be accredited for some of them. It's all backed by real estate, and I kind of love how the tax benefit of doing this can offset capital gains in your W-2 jobs income. They've always given me exactly their stated return paid on time. So it's steady income, no surprises while I'm sleeping or just doing the things I love. For a little insider tip, I've invested in their power fund to get going on that text family to 66866.

 

Speaker 1 (00:10:27) - Oh, and this isn't a solicitation. If you want to invest where I do, just go ahead and text family to six, 686, six.

 

Speaker 3 (00:10:39) - This is Hal Elrod, author of The Miracle Morning and listen to get Rich education with Keith Weinhold and Don't Quit Your Daydreams.

 

Speaker 1 (00:10:56) - Okay. I'd like to welcome back onto the show today, the co-founder and CEO of the whole operation Freedom of Family Investments. There's seven real estate centric companies based in Centerville, Ohio. By the way, the other co-founder is her husband, Philip, whom you've heard on the show before. Hey, we are graced with the presence of Dani Lynn Robison.

 

Speaker 4 (00:11:15) - Hello, Keith. I'm so happy to be here.

 

Speaker 1 (00:11:18) - So good to see you again. I've got to congratulate you on your success. You've got 62 team members. They're now in your vertically integrated companies. And by the way, that's a term vertically integrated that might throw some listeners off. I'm going to come back and explain just what that term means. They've done over 1500 deals now.

 

Speaker 1 (00:11:35) - They've acquired 600 plus units since 2020, and they've raised more than $20 million through podcasts and word of mouth. And they now have a portfolio valued at $32 million. Plus, they've been in real estate since 2008. And they'll tell you that they have a perfect track record of always returning investor capital, including to me, I'm one of their investors and paying 100% of the returns as promised, even if they themselves lost money on a deal. We'll talk about what losing money on a deal looks like in a moment. And in fact, you, the listener, you've probably heard me talk about how I personally participate for a high yield return with them myself, with Danny Lin's company backing me near the middle of Gary. Episodes like this right here. You know, I'll just tell you, for the most passive part of my real estate investing personally, I put my own dollars with Freedom Family Investments because their funds pay me a stream of regular cash flow in returns are better than a bank savings account up to 12%.

 

Speaker 1 (00:12:38) - Well with having. Listen to that. Danny, I want to ask you about your master note program shortly. But first, since this is get rich education, emphasizing the education part here, I think the term vertically integrated, that might throw some people off. It sounds like a mouthful. And. And what is that, Danny Lynn seven syllables. But it is a term that you, the listener, you see that and hear that across the entire business world, vertically integrated. That's a term for a business strategy where a company takes ownership of two or more stages of its supply chain. So, for example, a vertically integrated automaker, they might produce automobile components and vehicles and also sell directly to customers. All right. That's ownership of multiple stages of a supply chain. So to me it comes down to vertically integrated. It means that you now have more control. So Danny tell me about how that vertical integration applies to your seven real estate companies.

 

Speaker 4 (00:13:41) - You nailed it. As far as the definition and really why we created all of the companies when we first initially created our turnkey real estate company, we hadn't had the intention of bringing everything in-house.

 

Speaker 4 (00:13:54) - But as we outsource different pieces of the renovation or the property management, we found that the lack of control that we had was hurting us and hurting our investors. And so one by one, we would bring in a company. So first was renovations. Because of all the contractor nightmares that many fix and flippers have experienced themselves. We had them too, and in spades because we were doing volume. So we brought that in-house first so that we can control the subcontractors and the project management and the scopes of work and how we paid our contractors. The next thing we brought in house was property management. And then we had a brokerage so that we could just list our properties on the MLS internally and keep that in house as well, since we had to have a broker anyway. And then acquisitions got brought in-house because the wholesalers were buying all of our deals from went dry with deals and we're like, hey, we need deals. And so we brought the marketing in-house and started doing acquisitions. And then I've told this story of drugs, thugs and bugs many times about our 56 unit apartment complex.

 

Speaker 4 (00:14:54) - That led to company number six, which is our funding syndication company. That was a really great company because it allowed our private money lenders to be able to start putting their money to use 24 over seven instead of going in and out of deals. And then company number seven is going to be a hard money lending company, because as we've raised all of this capital, we found that there's times we have excess capital and we don't want to say no to incoming investors. So we started using that to network with our mastermind groups and saying, hey, let us know if you've got a deal going on. We'll underwrite it. And if we feel like it's a good deal, we'll go ahead and lend on that deal for you. And it allowed us to keep putting that money to work for our investors. So it's been really fantastic. Help us as an internal company, helped our investors be able to earn more returns and helped other our entire network just do more things with us.

 

Speaker 1 (00:15:41) - That's a vertical integration. And like that it hadn't heard that before.

 

Speaker 1 (00:15:45) - Drugs, thugs and bugs can lead to an epiphany that creates a new company bringing more in-house. So you have to listen to the least you need to remember is vertical integration. That means control. And one of your company's vertically integrated into that, Danny, is something that can benefit the listener here, and that is your lending arm. Now, your most popular program for giving everyday investors high yield returns is your master note program. That's actually a common program in the private lending industry, but some might not know about it. So go ahead and talk to us about what your master node program is.

 

Speaker 4 (00:16:25) - So this was brought to us by an investor who was working with us and said, hey, I love your private money lending program. You know, I've researched you. He actually found us on Forbes and came to our office and visited and said, I would really love to lend, but I don't necessarily want to keep going in and out of deals. And so we worked with an attorney and said, hey, what can we do in order to keep an investor's money at work? And so he talked with us and we explored different ideas, and we kind of went back and forth between us and the investor and the attorney and ultimately created this program called the Master Note Program, which offers investors 10 to 12% returns.

 

Speaker 4 (00:17:03) - It offers them liquidity so they can get cash out at any year that they want. So they'll invest in every single year they have the opportunity to say, hey, I'm going to go ahead and give you 180 days notice to get my cash back. So the liquidity piece has been really, really powerful, especially for private money lenders, because they reason that private money lenders like that program is because they know that, that they're going to get their capital back in 12 months or less. And at that point in time, they're going to say, hey, do I want to invest again? Yes, okay, I do. Or hey, I could use this money for something else that I was waiting for. And in the meantime, it was earning interest while I was waiting to use it for this other avenue. So the master note program was really just meant to have flexibility and to be able to customize the program based on the investor's goals. So what we've done is created a five year auto renewing note.

 

Speaker 4 (00:17:55) - So that way these investors can say, hey Danny, I've got $100,000. I'd like to invest that with you. And at that $100,000 level, that is 12% interest. And so they put the money in, and they know that every single year it's either going to auto renew or they're going to say, hey, I'm ready for the money to come back to me. And it also allows us to give them compound interest. I would say over half of our investors are not investing with us for distributions or cash flow. They actually are investing with us because they trust us and they trust our track record, and they want their money to grow. And so they actually choose to compound instead of taking the distributions, which allows for faster growth.

 

Speaker 1 (00:18:39) - Your master note program 10 to 12% returns. I know it's just that 25 K minimum. So it's really available to investors. So okay. Unlike an all say five year certificate of deposit from a bank that might only pay you 5%. Plus you're illiquid for five years.

 

Speaker 1 (00:19:00) - With a conventional instrument like that, you can cash out your master note any year, or you can just keep rolling it over. You have the option.

 

Speaker 4 (00:19:09) - Exactly right. And so what's interesting is we all like liquidity. I know Philip and I like liquidity. It's nice that you got this peace of mind that you can access your capital if you choose to do so, but in reality, most of us leave the money exactly where it's at. We like to see the growth. We like to see, you know, the returns that we're getting. And we get excited and we're like, where else am I going to put this money? So I love having the ability to get it back. But I would say 95% of the people in our master program and even our funds, after they get to the period in which they committed to, whether that be a year or three years, just depends on the vehicle that they're using. They stay there like, I love this, this is fantastic. You can keep my money and just keep it growing.

 

Speaker 1 (00:19:51) - Real estate is largely thought of as an equity based investment. You're the listener, putting 20 to 25% down and borrowing the rest. That's great. We talk about the virtues of doing that all the time, but you are not very liquid when you do that. Here. We're getting on the opposite side rather than being on the equity side. You're on the debt side, you're making a loan and you have higher liquidity this way.

 

Speaker 4 (00:20:18) - Exactly right. And so with our master Note program, the way that we worked it out with the attorney is it's used for both deals and our business growth. So that's really important that I think that we talk about because the private money lending. Let me give an example. Private money lending. You are going to maybe loan a $70,000 and that's going to cover an acquisition and rehab of a property. But maybe you had $100,000 available. Now your $70,000 is backed by a lien on that property. And then once we're done with the rehab and once we resell the property, then we're going to give you all of your capital back, plus the interest that you were owed for the time that we borrowed your money.

 

Speaker 4 (00:20:57) - Now, this is where our private money lender said, Danny. Danny, will you keep my money? And if you're a private money lender, I have to say no, I can't. I have to give you back your money because you have to sign a release of mortgage. There's a lean on that property. You have to sign the release that you got your capital back, and then we can give you another deal. And that might take two weeks or two months. What the most master program provided for investors was allowing them to invest with us still being used on deals, but for our protection, if we didn't have a deal to put money into, then we can use it for the growth of the company. So right now we're actually partnering with another investor who is out of Columbus, and we are creating a home supply company of materials. We have this opportunity to buy materials at huge, huge, massive discounts. And so we're working on acquiring the office space that we're in, which has 20,000ft² of warehouse right next to us, and we're going to buy in bulk all of these materials.

 

Speaker 4 (00:21:54) - And not only is that reducing the cost of our business and our rehabs, but now we can help other investors in the local area save money. And we have created a revenue stream. As a result, the growth of all the companies has been a result of working with investors exactly like this. So now the investor gets to say, hey, Danny, I'm going to give you $100,000 and I'm going to invest it in this master note program. Now they got to use $30,000 or more of their capital, as opposed to the $70,000 example I use for private money lending, so they can put all the capital they want to use. And then me, if I have a $70,000 deal, that I'm still going to use it on that same deal, and it's owned by our company, and then that other $30,000, then I can use it for things like we're buying materials in bulk, and it's allowing us to save money on those rehabs. It's allowing us to create another revenue stream. So it allows us to have a little bit of flexibility, and it allows the investors to have a higher return, still have that liquidity piece and still have it backed by real estate and or our business.

 

Speaker 1 (00:22:59) - Well, what an explanation. And you know what's interesting, Danny Lee, and listening back to that is the realization that most bank depositors don't have any idea how that bank is investing their money. They don't know how their deposit is backed at all. But with an explanation like that, that's substantive, we really do hear. So it's really an interesting contrast. We discussed the details of your master note program, including where you can get up to a 12% return. Tell us about the other opportunities that you have besides your master Note program.

 

Speaker 4 (00:23:34) - Because of our vertical integration, we have many different things that we can offer. If you're a passive investor, we have turnkey real estate. We do have private money lending, the master node program. We have funds that also provide great returns. And one of them we're getting ready to launch in the next couple of weeks, is offering even more liquidity, allowing people to get in and out in 90 days. So for those who don't want to wait a full year, maybe they just want it.

 

Speaker 4 (00:23:59) - Hey, I just want to put my money to use and I want to have this access to it every 90 days. We're now allowing people to have that option, and that is really a reflection of our conversations with investors in seeing what they want based on today's market, today's economy, what they feel comfortable investing in. So that's some of the passive investor opportunities for our active investors. We don't typically serve them. But I thought, hey, you know what? We are buying all of these deals and we're getting all of these leads, some of the deals we don't want, maybe because we have enough and we don't want to buy another one because our rehab team is stretched and we don't want to have a house sitting for a couple of months for our rehab team to be able to get to it sometimes. There's other reasons. So now we are starting to wholesale properties to investors who are active, that are wanting to flip the properties themselves for a higher profit. And because we are vertically integrated, we said, hey, if you want to buy one of these wholesale properties that we're not buying ourselves, we have a renovations department, we have a property management department, we have a brokerage.

 

Speaker 4 (00:24:58) - So if you're an out-of-state investor, you've got an entire team you can leverage through us to be able to buy a property as is, get it renovated, and then either sell it on the market or hold it and have our property management company look after it. So we're just continually trying to expand what we can do in service of other investors.

 

Speaker 1 (00:25:18) - I love that we can let the term vertically integrated just roll off our tongue. Now that everyone knows that, it means having control of multiple portions of the supply chain of their business, a real estate business. In this case, again, we're talking with Danny Lynn. She is the co-founder and the CEO of Freedom Family Investments. You deal with investors on both the more active side and the passive side smartly. I know, Danny Lin, that you don't call turnkey real estate investing passive, even though it's mostly passive. It's not completely passive. You have both passive and active sides. You know what investors want. You know the pallet of items to offer them with what interests them.

 

Speaker 1 (00:26:00) - So with that in mind, tell us just a bit more on the landscape overall in just how you serve people. I know a lot of them. For example, they might wonder, do I need to be accredited or do I need to be non accredited? And tell us more about the minimum investments amounts kind of that bar to clear in order to participate with you, just like I am myself.

 

Speaker 4 (00:26:22) - For the minimum investments, it's $25,000. That's typical for turnkey properties. That's typical for our master node program, and then $50,000 for some of our funds, also our private money lending program. And then for the accredited versus non-accredited, we have both options. So there are rules as to when we can offer certain investment opportunities if you're non accredited. So things like private money lending, turnkey investing, master node program those are all opportunities for non accredited investors. And then for our accredited investors we have funds that are it's 506 C. It's a little bit technical but it's the way the SEC says hey you can talk about this.

 

Speaker 4 (00:27:01) - You can advertise it but you can only allow accredited investors inside. So as we work with our attorney we are like, okay, we don't want to serve just accredited investors. So how do we make sure that we're serving both at the same time? And so we've made sure to just really have a variety of offerings. And I talked to people a lot about what you said about active versus passive. I think that's a really, really important conversation because many people who are getting into the real estate game, they don't know whether they want to be active or passive, and so many of them end up being active first, only to realize they just created another job for themselves. And then they go, okay, I don't want to do this anymore. I actually want to live a quality life. I want to spend time traveling. I want to spend time with my spouse or my kids and just enjoy life. And I didn't mean to create another job, even though it is building wealth. And then they move to the passive side so that they can get mailbox money or have their money working for them while they sleep, or while you are traveling like you just got back from traveling.

 

Speaker 4 (00:28:05) - Keith and I loved watching your Facebook post, right? I love having that educational piece of really talking to somebody about what their goals are, what the quality of life is that they want, so they don't make a mistake of going active, only to feel like they lost some time because the active journey is difficult, like it's not been easy to build seven real estate companies, and we've got two more in the wings that we're getting ready to launch that we talked about even the the home supply company. It's not an easy road. You make a lot of mistakes, you lose a lot of money. And so when somebody has capital to invest in, their goal is to grow their wealth, build wealth, have a legacy, be able to retire and not worry about money. Going the active route may seem like I'm going to make more money because I'm going to get the big chunk of equity, but it ends up being something where they learn the hard lessons themselves and then usually waste a lot of time and energy and frustration, only to realize that they probably could have made equal, if not more on the passive side and not had all the stress.

 

Speaker 4 (00:29:06) - So I love really having that conversation with everybody. I love active and passive investors alike. It's just making sure that they truly know what journey they want to be on.

 

Speaker 1 (00:29:16) - In my mind, the term ROI return on investment is more active and a term that I've talked about wrote I return on time invested with that being considered that falls more on the passive side with you guys experience and understanding, you're surely quite cognizant of that. Why don't you talk to us about some of the other questions that you get from new investors, things that really they want to know about before going ahead and making a loan and participating in a lending opportunity with you.

 

Speaker 4 (00:29:49) - So the top three questions that we get is where do I start? Which path is right for me and who do I trust? And I actually talked to one of our investors who has grown his seed capital of $100,000 into $2.5 million with us over the course of four years that he's been investing. Every time he has capital, he's like, what opportunities do you have and where can I put my money? And again, we talk about compound.

 

Speaker 4 (00:30:14) - He has been compounding since day one with us and is really allowed his capital to grow extensively. I was interviewing him to tell his story about his journey with us and his experience. He actually said, you know, those questions are funny, Dannielynn. I would tell you that you should ask them in the opposite order. You should say, who do I trust? And then once you know who to trust, then ask, where do I start and which path is right for me? And I do agree that the trust question is the most critical piece of the puzzle, right? So many times I get on the phone and I talk to investors who have lost money working with somebody else, and so they've maybe heard me on your podcast or seen me somewhere else and heard me say over and over, private money lenders, our investors are our number one priority. I am never going to put myself in a position where they're not receiving their full capital back, receiving every single penny owed for the interest of the time that I was using their capital.

 

Speaker 4 (00:31:11) - And I'll allow myself to lose money to make sure that they get paid. And that's so important to me that I tell people very often they said, you want to work with people that will be transparent enough to say, this is my worst deal, this is what happened. And what you're going to get by asking that question is a revealing of their character. Yeah, who they are. How did they treat that situation? How was the investor treated in that situation and what happened? Did they tuck tail and run? Do they walk away, which many investors do? They get frustrated and they're like, oh my gosh, I lost all this money. What am I going to do? And they just they stop answering their phone. They stop answering emails. And then the investors are stuck with the house. I think the questions like that are really important. Looking at track records and just asking the hard stuff, understanding the true nature of a person. And then lastly, the which path is right for me is a question of really understanding that active and passive piece, and then understanding your goals when it comes to money, is it cash flow, is it growth? Is it tax benefits? Is it liquidity? What are the things diversification.

 

Speaker 4 (00:32:11) - There's so many goals you can have in investing. And if you don't know the questions to ask, then you might not be hitting the goals that you truly desire in life.

 

Speaker 1 (00:32:21) - We learned about a really good investor outcome there. How about a bad outcome or a worst deal? And then how did you cover that to make sure the investor is made whole?

 

Speaker 4 (00:32:33) - Our worst deal is a duplex in Dayton. And what happened was one of the reasons we brought our renovations company in-house, because we had a project manager, we had a runner, and one of the processes that we have is when the contractors are rehabbing a property, then the runner will go to the properties and just double check that what their invoice is saying, that they actually did the work and then we will pay them. So the project manager is trusting the runner. The runner is saying he went to the houses and we're paying this contractor. And it turns out one of the contractors had not done anything. The pictures that they were submitting to us was from another property they were rehabbing, so it looked like he was doing the work.

 

Speaker 4 (00:33:12) - The runner? Yep. The runner was relying on those pictures as his proof instead of actually going to the property and physically seeing the work being done. And we were paying them as a result of this hierarchy of process that we had. So we ended up having a property where none of it got rehabbed, and we paid the full amount of rehab to that contractor. So we had to pay for the rehab twice. So in this situation, we lost over $50,000. Our investor didn't even know what happened. And I say that not because we weren't being transparent, it's because we were going to do exactly what we said we were going to do. They were going to get all of their capital back, and they were going to get every single penny of interest owed. We ended up asking them at the end of 12 months, do you mind extending on this loan? We're still working on it. It's okay if you don't want to. We will still get you paid back, plus all interest, and we'll replace your loan with another private money lender.

 

Speaker 4 (00:34:06) - They said no, it's no problem. Absolutely. You can extend. So by the time it was all done we actually had the house fully rehabbed. We had lost a lot of capital. The reason that we can cover situations like that and make sure that we're honoring our word to our investors is because we do volume. When you do volume, I tell people, this is what I say. If you've been in real estate long enough, you understand you're going to lose money. You're understand that you're going to pull back walls and find things that you did not anticipate. So doing volume was our way of mitigating that risk. If we're doing ten deals a month and two of them go bad, well, we've got eight others that are covering the two that went bad. And so it's a numbers game for us knowing that we're going to find some duds, we're going to make some mistakes. And that's okay because we're playing the volume game.

 

Speaker 1 (00:34:53) - Ah, that harrowing story about the contractor and the rudder that comes back to the old Ronald Reagan trust, but verify they're right.

 

Speaker 1 (00:35:01) - So. Right. Well, thanks for sharing a more difficult story with us like that. Well, Danny, as we're winding down here, you do a lot of things there at Freedom Family Investments because you have this big holistic picture. Since you are vertically integrated company, and that's given you the experience and the wisdom. Do a lot of things. I know you have a book published and you're speaking at events around the theme get real. I own your book. Get Real. Can you quickly tell us more about it?

 

Speaker 4 (00:35:28) - So our very first book was Get Real, understand Real Estate Investing before it's too late. And it was just our first book. And it's going to be a series of Get Real Books was our first book to really introduce people that were new to real estate. What is it? Why do we love it? Why do we have such a passion for building real estate businesses and love that we can not only grow wealth for ourselves, but we can help other investors do the same? And then the get real part of it.

 

Speaker 4 (00:35:52) - The reason that we love this is actually one of my marketing team members, actually, you know him, Matthew. He's the one that came up with a Get Real brand. And it's really become something that people say, hey, Flip and Dani, you guys are so down to earth, like, I feel like I can talk to you about anything and you're so transparent. You tell us the ups and the downs and the crazy roller coaster rides, and there's so many people that are on social media or on podcast that will just tell you the rosy rainbows and sunshine stories, you know, as if nothing goes wrong. And I think reality is, is people want to work with people that are just more authentic, that are willing to share, hey, I'm human, I'm not perfect. We're going to make mistakes, but watch how we correct those mistakes, watch how we act during those situations. I think if you can do that, you actually gain more trust. And that's something that surprises a lot of the masterminds that I'm in.

 

Speaker 4 (00:36:43) - When I say they say, how do you have so many investors? How do you raise so much capital? I'm just like, I'm just authentic and transparent about everything that we do. And that garners a lot of trust in the people, because not a lot of people are willing to talk about their failures. That $50,000 loss on a duplex. And I don't know why, but it builds trust instead of loses it. And their jaw drops to the ground going, oh my goodness, I can talk about my failures. And I'm like, yes, start. People want to know that you're real. So I think that that get real concept is important. So we're going to keep on building creating some more books. We have investors that are giving us ideas of, hey, write a book about this. So we're going to keep on releasing them. And we're also speaking in events nationwide and just really just getting down to earth for people and letting them know, hey, stop telling yourself your can't. Anybody can build wealth.

 

Speaker 4 (00:37:32) - If you run a great podcast, you have so many loyal listeners and we love talking to them, and you have helped educate people for years and years and years, and we just need more people out there doing that.

 

Speaker 1 (00:37:45) - Well, thanks. The name of the platform and book is Get Real, Danny. Dannielynn, in closing, why don't you let our audience know about the best way to reach out to you and learn more about your private lending programs, including your Master Note program? Because for you, the listener, if this sounds interesting, here you go. Mean this is where I tie up a lot of my liquid funds for a high return. Let our audience know how they can learn more.

 

Speaker 4 (00:38:11) - All you have to do is text family to 6686, six.

 

Speaker 1 (00:38:17) - Dani Lynn, it's been valuable. As always. Thanks so much for coming back onto the show.

 

Speaker 4 (00:38:21) - Thank you so much, Keith. It's an honor.

 

Speaker 1 (00:38:29) - Yeah, good stuff from Dani Lynn Robison of Freedom Family Investments. Today, let's review what we've learned.

 

Speaker 1 (00:38:36) - Demand deposit accounts, which include things like checking accounts, savings accounts and money market accounts. They allow you to withdraw money from the account whenever you want, whereas time deposit accounts like CDs require you to deposit your money for a specific length of time. Vertical integration that's a term for a business strategy, where a company takes ownership of multiple stages of its supply chain and the term financial runway. That is, the amount of time you can maintain your lifestyle without the need for a paycheck. As you know, I often like to leave you with something actionable. Their Master Note program offers 10 to 12% returns, some liquidity, and just a 25 K minimum. And another way to think about it is that, in fact, then that is a 10 to 12% cash on cash return. And if you're interested in being more nimble than that, there are other lending programs where you can get a strong return with just 90 day liquidity. And to get started on any of them, or simply learn more. Text family to 66866.

 

Speaker 1 (00:39:45) - Until next week where we've got a great show for you. I'm your host, Keith Weinhold. Don't quit your daydream.

 

Speaker 5 (00:39:55) - Nothing on this show should be considered specific, personal or professional advice. Please consult an appropriate tax, legal, real estate, financial or business professional for individualized advice. Opinions of guests are their own. Information is not guaranteed. All investment strategies have the potential for profit or loss. The host is operating on behalf of Get Rich Education LLC exclusively.

 

Speaker 1 (00:40:23) - The preceding program was brought to you by your home for wealth building. Get Rich Education.com.



Direct download: GREepisode475_b.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 4:00am EDT

Will higher interest rates and inflation persist for a decade?

An upcoming recession always seems to be perpetually just around the corner. Learn when it should finally happen.

Macroeconomist Richard Duncan joins me. I tell you a funny story about when he was GRE’s first-ever guest in 2014.

Currency is now being destroyed—called Quantitative Tightening.

Negatives for future asset prices: QT, higher rates, student loan debt repayment, stronger dollar, asset prices already inflated, high personal asset-to-income ratios, higher oil prices, looming government shutdown.

Positives for future asset prices: monetary stimulus hangover, high employment, CHIPS and Science Act, Inflation Reduction Act, The AI Revolution, prospect of lower future inflation and interest rates. 

Richard provides his opinion and insight on today’s real estate market.

If inflation-adjusted credit growth is less than 2%, expect a recession. If it goes negative, expect a depression.

Get a 50% Discount on Richard Duncan’s MacroWatch video newsletter. Use the code “GRE” at: RichardDuncanEconomics.com

Resources mentioned:

Show Notes:

GetRichEducation.com/474

Get a 50% Discount on Richard Duncan’s MacroWatch video newsletter. Use the code “GRE” at:

RichardDuncanEconomics.com

For access to properties or free help with a

GRE Investment Coach, start here:

GREmarketplace.com

Get mortgage loans for investment property:

RidgeLendingGroup.com or call 855-74-RIDGE 

or e-mail: info@RidgeLendingGroup.com

Invest with Freedom Family Investments. You get paid first: Text ‘FAMILY’ to 66866

Will you please leave a review for the show? I’d be grateful. Search “how to leave an Apple Podcasts review” 

Top Properties & Providers:

GREmarketplace.com

GRE Free Investment Coaching:

GREmarketplace.com/Coach

Best Financial Education:

GetRichEducation.com

Get our wealth-building newsletter free—

text ‘GRE’ to 66866

Our YouTube Channel:

www.youtube.com/c/GetRichEducation

Follow us on Instagram:

@getricheducation

Keith’s personal Instagram:

@keithweinhold

Direct download: GREepisode474_.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 3:00am EDT

Failed deals. Capital calls. Lost investor money. A dreadful and sobering conversation ensues for many in some commercial real estate sectors.

Residential (1-4 unit) and commercial (5+ unit) real estate fortunes are decoupling. 

Multifamily commercial loans are at the mercy of interest rate resets.

Residential is stable due to low supply and sustained demand.

Neal Bawa from MultifamilyU and I outline the multifamily problem. Values have plummeted 25%. 

The magnitude of the multifamily problem is about 1/80th of the 2008 Global Financial Crisis.

There are two reasons for the office apocalypse—both declining income and increasing expenses.

Only 3% of office buildings in downtown cores have a floor plan that can be converted to residential. Dreadful. 

There will be possible discounts in the hotel industry due to a lack of funding and loans.

Retail has surprising bright spots.

We discuss the future of rents through 2026.

Will multifamily problems create contagion into 1-4 unit residential? We discuss. 

Timestamps:

Multifamily industry changes and challenges [00:00:46]

Discussion on the new difficulties faced in multifamily, such as failed deals, capital calls, and banking industry challenges.

Opportunity arising in the multifamily market [00:01:12]

Exploration of the current opportunity in the multifamily market due to a 25% reduction in prices from the peak, caused by distressed transactions and high interest costs.

Anatomy of the problem with floating rate debt [00:05:57]

Explanation of the issues faced by apartment building owners or syndicators when they have floating rate debt without rate caps, leading to potential deal blow-ups.

The rate cap issue [00:08:29]

Discussion on operators neglecting to buy a rate cap or buying a rate cap set too high, leading to negative cash flow.

Magnitude of the multifamily reset problem [00:09:47]

Comparison of the current multifamily reset problem to the global financial crisis, highlighting the challenges faced by operators.

Challenges in refinancing properties [00:12:10]

Explanation of the challenges faced by properties in refinancing due to decreased net operating income and increased mortgage costs, leading to potential loss of investor money.

The availability of multifamily loans [00:16:50]

Neil discusses the availability of commercial real estate loans, particularly in the multifamily space, and how it differs from other asset classes.

Lending challenges in the commercial real estate space [00:18:03]

Neil talks about the severe lending challenges faced by asset classes like office, retail, and self-storage, while expressing confidence in the stability of multifamily lending.

Contagion and the impact on the 1 to 4 unit space [00:20:56]

Neil discusses the limited level of contagion that could affect the 1 to 4 unit space due to problems in the multifamily market, highlighting the healthiness of the single-family market and institutional interest in it.

The Troubled Office Sector [00:25:35]

The speaker discusses how the office sector is facing a long-term demand crisis due to the decrease in office occupancy and the challenges of converting office buildings into residential units.

The Ten-Year Problem in the Office Sector [00:27:06]

The speaker explains that the office sector is about to face a ten-year problem, with defaults and declining values affecting the downtown core and other assets.

Bright Spots in Retail and Hotels [00:29:21]

The speaker highlights that retail occupancy is higher than multifamily occupancy, and despite the Amazon effect, retail is doing well. They also mention that hotels have seen strong recovery post-pandemic.

Hotels and Multifamily Discounts [00:32:55]

Discussion on the current cash flow opportunities in hotels and multifamily properties, potential discounts in the next 12 months.

Retail Reinvention and Rents in a Recession [00:33:57]

Exploration of how retail can sustain itself through experiential offerings, the resilience of rents in past recessions.

Artificial Recession and Rent Growth [00:35:33]

Analysis of the possibility of a recession and its impact on rents, the strength of the US economy, and the expected short duration of the recession.

The recession and its frequency [00:40:56]

Discussion on the frequency of recessions and how they are a normal part of the business cycle.

Learning opportunities at MultifamilyU.com [00:41:31]

Information on the webinars offered by multifamily ewcom, covering various topics including single-family and multifamily projects.

Appreciation for Neil Bawa's insights [00:42:22]

The host expresses gratitude for Neil Bawa's informative contributions and welcomes him back on the show.

Resources mentioned:

Show Notes:

GetRichEducation.com/473

Neal Bawa:

MultiFamilyU.com and Grocapitus.com

For access to properties or free help with a

GRE’s Investment Coach, start here:

GREmarketplace.com

Get mortgage loans for investment property:

RidgeLendingGroup.com or call 855-74-RIDGE 

or e-mail: info@RidgeLendingGroup.com

Invest with Freedom Family Investments. You get paid first: Text ‘FAMILY’ to 66866

Will you please leave a review for the show? I’d be grateful. Search “how to leave an Apple Podcasts review” 

Top Properties & Providers:

GREmarketplace.com

GRE Free Investment Coaching:

GREmarketplace.com/Coach

Best Financial Education:

GetRichEducation.com

Get our wealth-building newsletter free—

text ‘GRE’ to 66866

Our YouTube Channel:

www.youtube.com/c/GetRichEducation

Follow us on Instagram:

@getricheducation

Keith’s personal Instagram:

@keithweinhold

 

Complete episode transcript:

 

Speaker 1: Today's guest is well known as the mad Scientist of multifamily. He's a data guru, self-described self-described process freak, and an outsourcing expert. He's a ten figure man with his billion dollar plus multifamily portfolio and his 900 plus investors. He's also the CEO at a multifamily education company because he's a really good teacher. It's been about a year and a half since you were first here. Welcome back to Neal Bawa.

 

Speaker 1 (00:00:40) - Well, thanks for having me back on. It's it's a delight to be back. Had a fantastic conversation with you last time. So I'm looking forward to this one. We did.

 

Speaker 2 (00:00:46) - The last one was so fun and spirited. But my gosh, since then, Neal, about a year and a half ago, so much has changed in the multifamily industry. We know that a lot of new difficulties have come into multifamily, like failed deals and capital calls and the need to raise bridge debt and banking industry challenges.

 

Speaker 2 (00:01:06) - So where would you like to start to help give us some perspective on all that?

 

Speaker 1 (00:01:12) - Well, think opportunity is finally here. You know, when when we talked a year and a half ago, I was I said things like, well, prices are too high. I said things like, I don't know where the margins are. I don't know how people make deals work. I don't know how they make them pencil out. Right. Um, in some ways, I'm still saying some of those things, but it's certainly not because of pricing anymore. So, you know, the single family market is a perfect sort of benchmark for the world that live in multifamily. As far as I know, in the last 12 months, single family prices have either been flat or up 1% or down 1%, depending upon which analyst you pick. But it's certainly been an extremely, extraordinarily stable market in terms of prices, where it's it's you know, the volume, of course, has cratered. It's down a ridiculous percentage.

 

Speaker 1 (00:02:00) - Whereas multifamily was an industry that has hurt more because of the portion of multifamily that was purchased or traded in the 2020, 2021 and 2022 time frame. Almost all of those trades happened using bridge loans which were floating, whereas almost all single family transactions were 30 year fixed loans. Right. So so two completely different things have happened. Normally the single family and multifamily market tend to be in lockstep. And that's certainly been the case for ten years. But over the last 18 months, single family and multifamily have separated from each other. And the big reason for that is almost all of the distressed transactions that you're talking about, that you're alluding to all of those cash calls. They are related to bridge loans, which had floating debt. And that floating debt has gone from, you know, 6% to ten, eight, you know, 11%, even for for some of these, these operators making it extremely difficult to make numbers work, making it very difficult to pencil. But on the good side, we've now seen compared to the peak, which was probably about 20, 21 months ago, we've seen a 25% reduction in prices, which is huge because we mean multifamily usually as an asset class, doesn't go down 25% simply because it its value is based on rents, you know, and rents rarely go down.

 

Speaker 1 (00:03:22) - They hardly went down for 6 or 7 months in 2008, so we didn't see much of a decline there in 2008, simply because, you know, the, the, the income was strong, but this time, the much, much higher cost of interest means that our overall post mortgage income is down. And that's why prices are down 25%. So both opportunity and distress in the multifamily space.

 

Speaker 2 (00:03:46) - That's such a staggering number. So let's frame that. Multifamily prices down 25% since their peak or year over year. And then just to be clear, we're talking about five plus unit residential apartment buildings with that figure.

 

Speaker 1 (00:04:01) - Yes, I'm glad you asked the question that way because I do need to qualify a few things. So so first thing is down from peak and depending upon different markets, the peak was either the last quarter of 2021 or the first quarter of 2022. And in a couple of markets, even the second quarter of 2022. So it's I'm not saying year over year, it's basically they're down 25% in the last 18 or 20 months.

 

Speaker 1 (00:04:25) - Um, so the second piece is that the down 25% is predominantly, let's call it hotter markets in the United States. So if we're talking about a steady Midwest market like Kansas City or Indianapolis, then you're probably seeing a decline of half that amount. So maybe 12.5, 13, 14%, where if you're talking about a very fast growing market, you know, all the Texan markets, the Floridian markets, then you might be seeing declines of that 25% level, since a lot of the transactions that did happen in the last two years were in the faster growing markets, that 25% number is still reasonable. And some people listening to this show might say, no, I don't think 25% is right. It's more like 20, it's more like 18. So I'll. Be at that by saying it's a pretty wide range. We're seeing as little as 18% in some of these fast growing markets, you know, hot markets. And we're also seeing markets like Phoenix, where we're seeing 27, 28% declines in price.

 

Speaker 1 (00:05:23) - Also, the the range is dependent on the number of units. We are seeing smaller declines if you've got less than 100 units. Right. So smaller properties, we're seeing a smaller decline maybe 15%. And then when we are seeing properties that are 300 units or more, just the whoppers, we're seeing 30% declines in those assets. So so a lot of it is really dependent upon, you know, because the bigger the size, the harder it is to finance it these days, the less the banks want to take a risk on it. So the bigger the property, the harder, harder it's hit at this point of time.

 

Speaker 2 (00:05:57) - The bigger the property, the less liquidity. So maybe, Neil, to help the listener get a full understanding, maybe you can take us through the anatomy of where a common problem is with what happens to an apartment building owner or syndicator when they got this floating rate debt and they didn't get a rate cap and rates spiked? What exactly happens that makes these deals blow up?

 

Speaker 1 (00:06:24) - Right? First, want to, you know, set the size of the of the problem.

 

Speaker 1 (00:06:28) - Right. So when you compare it to 2008, it's not comparable in 2008, the total size of distress or you know, potential distress was 8000 billion or $8 trillion. So it was it was a it was an absolutely staggering event. Luckily, not a lot of that distress actually happened. So that was good. But the the total size of distress was in that $8 trillion or $8000 billion range, the total size of distress in the multifamily market appears to be in the $100 billion range, so about 1/80 of the size of the distress in 2008. So keep that in mind. Also, as a percentage of the overall multifamily industry, there's about 100,000 multifamily properties in the United States that are on the bigger size. Let's call them more than 50 units. There's 20 million apartment units total. 100,000 are the bigger properties. Of those 100,000, the distressed portion of the portfolios is about, from what I can tell, about 3000 properties. Maybe it could be as much as 4000, but 3000 is a very common number.

 

Speaker 1 (00:07:30) - So about 3% of the properties are distressed. And why are they distressed? Multifamily has been doing incredibly well. Rent growth has been phenomenal, especially in 2021 where it was 15%. Just so you know, they the 50 year average is about 2% rent growth. So 15% is you know, champagne time. So so we've certainly had positive trends. And we continue to see positive trends. You know there's there's less and less people can afford a mortgage. So there's basically a you know brand new renters being created every day because of mortgage rates being this high. But the, the the downside was that a portion of those 100,000 properties were purchased in late 2020, 2021 and then, you know, 2022, and they were purchased using floating debt. And the the so we're talking about those 3000 properties. Those 3000 properties either didn't have a rate cap. So when when you you're purchasing using, you know, bridge debt or floating debt, you want to buy a rate cap. So if rates do go up they hit that cap.

 

Speaker 1 (00:08:29) - And then anything above that cap is something that the rate, you know, cap selling company reimburses to you. So that way you're not affected by but by going above that, well, some of these operators neglected to buy a rate cap, which was a really bad thing to do. But then there were others that other operators that bought a rate cap, but their rate cap was set too high. So, you know, they basically didn't think that rates would go up. So they did put a rate cap in. But instead of buying a rate cap at 6% or 7%, they may be bought a rate cap at 8 or 9. They were basically looking for the worst case scenario, and so they bought the cheapest rate cap that they could find. And now, you know, rates have gone up and they've already hit that rate cap. Maybe it's eight and a half or 9% and it had eight and a half or 9%. That mortgage is still too high for that property to cash flow. So now the property has negative cash flow.

 

Speaker 1 (00:09:18) - So there's I personally know of a few dozen properties where the negative cash flow is between 20,000 and $200,000 a month. And that negative cash flow means that the syndicators, the the general partners are basically putting that money in themselves, or they're taking short term loans and they are now looking for a solution there and their solutions are limited. I can give you a list of those, but their solutions are limited because the property is is negative cash flow and nobody wants to touch a property that's negative cash flow.

 

Speaker 2 (00:09:47) - Did we say that he's a data driven guy or what? That was some great perspective that the magnitude here of the multifamily reset problem has been about 1/80 of what the problem was in real estate during the global financial crisis. That was a great way to put things in perspective. Yeah, Neal, you know, it's such an interesting mindset that an operator would have the awareness to buy a rate cap with their floating rate debt, but yet not have the cap be low enough in order to keep them out of trouble.

 

Speaker 2 (00:10:20) - That's really unusual to me. Do you have any idea what percent of operators have bought a rate cap with their floating rate debt?

 

Speaker 1 (00:10:30) - I think a majority of them have. So I'd say more than 50% of the properties that were purchased during this time did have caps, but a lot of the caps were set high. So that that was a very common thing, where the caps were set to 8% or higher, as opposed to them being set at, you know, 6 or 6.5%. So it's more of a high cap issue rather than a no cap issue. And I think the bigger the secondary challenges, let's say let's say they had a good rate cap, right? So I bought it. Let's say you bought a property in the, um, let's call it the final quarter of 2020. And you bought a two year rate cap. And the rate cap was good. It was 6.5%. Yeah. Good for you. Right. But that rate cap was a two year rate cap. So now it expired basically last year.

 

Speaker 1 (00:11:14) - And so since last year you're now up at 10 or 11%. And, you know, a year's gone by. Your property is bleeding. Maybe it was doing well, but now that it's been bleeding for a year and you've been paying all of that bleed out of your operating expenses, now you're in trouble. And maybe you bought it. Three rate cap. Well, if you bought the property in the final quarter of 2020, then in about a month or two months from now, we're in the final quarter of 2023. Well, that rate cap is going to be gone. And then maybe in the next three, 4 or 5, six, seven months, all of your operating budget, all of your operating, you know, fund is going to be, you know, gone because you have this much higher mortgage. So what's happening is that this is one of those situations where there isn't a trigger on any one particular day, and a huge number of properties come to market. There were a lot of properties purchased in the final quarter of 2020, all four quarters of 2021 and the first three quarters of 2022.

 

Speaker 1 (00:12:10) - Right. So you're looking at a total of eight quarters. So each quarter, a certain percentage of those properties get to the point where either their rate cap is gone. Right. So it's finished because you bought a one year or two year rate cap, or they're they're at the point where even without the rate cap, their loan is expiring. So a lot of these bridge loans were two year loans and three year loans. And so the vast majority of the challenges that the multifamily industry is going to face are going to be in 2024, because that's when a vast majority of either rate caps or mortgages expire. And because because the net operating income of these properties has gone down and the and the mortgage cost has gone up, most of these properties cannot be refinanced. So I'd say out of the 3000 properties, you could probably refinance using some mechanism, a thousand of them, maybe a third of them. And that could be, you know, do a cash call, get, you know, money from your investors.

 

Speaker 1 (00:13:07) - Or you could do what is known as a pref lending, where you basically take money from an outside party and that outside that extra money helps you refinance into into perm debt. So those are your options. And the third option, which is likely to be most common, is that you go out and sell your property. But from what I'm seeing, the vast majority of these properties that don't get refinanced. So out of 3000, the 2000 that don't get refinanced are likely to come to market, and the vast majority of them will end up losing all of their investor money or a majority of their investor money. And so you, you know, if it's a $100 billion problem, that's, you know, we're talking about 30 to $40 billion of investor money, and a majority of that 30 to $40 billion could be lost.

 

Speaker 2 (00:13:48) - Yeah, that is troubling and really concerning as far as those LPs, those limited partners, those investors in someone else's syndication, hopefully that syndicator, that operator is communicating with their investors.

 

Speaker 2 (00:14:03) - But for investors, is there anything they can do to identify cracks in the arm or where they might be losing their deal, where they might be losing their money, where they might be throwing good money after bad if a capital call is requested?

 

Speaker 1 (00:14:18) - I think it's a very difficult thing to do for a limited partner because you have, you know, you have more, you have much more exposure to the deal than you would when you invest in the stock market, where you know, there's almost no exposure unless it's a public company. Um, but and these are all private syndications. But I think that a lot of investors simply don't know how to read the, the budgets versus actuals. They don't necessarily know how to read the Performa. So it's it's challenging. So if you're somebody that is. Comfortable doing that. I suggest you dive in and basically ask a lot of the questions of the syndicators. I have one such property, so, you know, I was lucky in that during that time a lot of my colleagues had I have people who I know colleagues that bought 10 to 12 properties during that time frame.

 

Speaker 1 (00:15:02) - It was very normal. I bought one and a half. So one of those properties was my own property, exited one of my partners. So I call it a half a property because it was already mine. Um, and then I bought purchased one other property in a military metro. So I was able to get it for a lower price because it was a military metro. And usually the prices are lower for, for for military towns and, and that property, you know, I'm having the same challenges that I've described. So, you know, the the rate cap issues and the fact that basically prices have gone down by 25%. And I'm dealing with it by constantly communicating with my investors, giving them, you know, options. You know, here's, you know, how when, when we were when we were all selling these these shares to investors, we gave them a, um, a sensitivity analysis showing them, you know, worst case scenario, best case scenario, you know, in a middle case scenario.

 

Speaker 1 (00:15:55) - And so now we're basically doing a sensitivity analysis based on what we are seeing in the marketplace today. And and giving them feedback on what our options are and think a lot of it comes down from the the general partners communicating with the limited partners. And if the your general partner is not very communicative, is not giving you information, ask for one on one meetings, ask for you know, more information in their webinar or in their updates. I think this is a time for limited partners to be vocal.

 

Speaker 2 (00:16:25) - You've learned about the problem in the larger apartment space. You've learned about how operators and apartment syndicators are dealing with the problem. And then, Neil, where do you think that we're going next and think maybe we should ask and look at it through the lens of where do you think we're going next with the availability of multifamily loans, could this help the source of capital dry up?

 

Speaker 1 (00:16:50) - And so I think the answer is we are going to a very dark place with availability of commercial real, you know, loans.

 

Speaker 1 (00:16:57) - Multifamily is in a privileged asset class. So, you know, the the term commercial real estate is sometimes meant to include multifamily, sometimes not. So I'll assume that multifamily is part of commercial real estate, but there are many other asset classes. So there's office which is the next biggest asset class. There's retail hotels, there's self-storage, you know, and and a few others like mixed use. And of those commercial real estate asset class, there's only one that's privileged and that's multifamily because there are not one, not two, but three lenders who are government or quasi government organizations whose only job it is to keep lending in the multifamily space liquid, and also the single family space liquid. And they are Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac and hard. Right. So Housing and Development Authority. So these three lenders right now are extremely, extremely active. And what has happened is that in in good times, call it 20 early 2022. You had life companies. You had all these private, you know, bridge capital, you had all kinds of capital that was lending to the multifamily space.

 

Speaker 1 (00:18:03) - Now some of that capital has backed off. There's still a huge percentage, I'd say probably 40, 50% of all loans that are being done today are these kinds of private, you know, groups. But think the government or quasi government groups are much more active today and their lending. So I don't think multifamily lending dries up at all. I don't think that that's the case. I think it dries up for the non privileged asset classes, hotel, retail, self-storage, office. These are the classes that are likely to see, you know, near lending dry up especially because on a fundamentals basis there's absolutely nothing wrong with multifamily. In fact as I mentioned I think we're a lot better off than 2019 to 2023 given that home prices have gone up 40%, incomes are only gone up 15%. So there's a very large number of Americans that simply cannot qualify for a single family home anymore. And so those people have to go to apartments. So the the fundamentals are really good for apartments. That is not true of office.

 

Speaker 1 (00:19:02) - So office is an asset class that is experiencing the worst fundamentals it has seen in its entire history. And so I do think that there's going to be very severe lending challenges in the commercial real estate space. But I haven't really seen that multifamily, and I don't anticipate seeing it in the future as well.

 

Speaker 2 (00:19:20) - Well, I don't know if any of that could have as much fun as last time. There were rather gloomy subjects to discuss here with Neal and come back. Can this problem in the multifamily space create contagion for the 1 to 4 unit space? And like with what Neil touched on, what about other commercial sectors like office and retail? How troubled are they when we come back? This is get recession. I'm your host, Keith Weinhold. 

 

Speaker 2 (00:20:14) - Welcome back to Get Rich Education. We're talking with the mad scientist of multifamily, a big brained visionary. He's also an excellent teacher. I'm sure you can tell as you're listening to him here. And if you're listening in the audio only Bawa is spelled b a w a new. Here on this show, we talk an awful lot about investing in the 1 to 4 unit space and the advantage of the 30 year fixed that long term fixed interest rate debt. Do you see any areas for contagion with problems in the multifamily five plus unit space bleeding over into the 1 to 4 unit space?

 

Speaker 1 (00:20:56) - Yes, but to a limited level, I think that the the 1 to 4 unit space is the healthiest that I've seen in a very long time.

 

Speaker 1 (00:21:05) - And there's reasons for that. One of the biggest reasons is multifamily, which is the most well sought after asset class for institutional investors who don't typically don't usually like the 1 to 4 unit space. There's a few companies in that space, let's call them half a dozen, but there's several thousand companies that invest in the multifamily space. Some of them are right now looking at single family as a, you know, as a, you know, safe haven to park some of their money. Right? So there's, you know, more institutional level interest in the single family space because of its access to those, you know, those those 30 year fixed loans. So there's and the fact that single family prices basically haven't declined. So I think that there's there's a lot of interest in the single family space. Um, keep in mind that millennials are reaching their peak years of household formation. So they started in 2019. So until 2025. So from 19 to 2025, those are the peak years of household formation for millennials.

 

Speaker 1 (00:22:01) - And that's also putting a cushion under the single family space there. Contagion is some form of contagion is inevitable. I think that the office market is going to see spectacular levels of contagion, similar to 2008. I think that the other associated markets, like hotel and retail, are going to see some level of contagion, though I certainly don't expect it to be as bad as office. And then multifamily is going to see some contagion, as we mentioned, because of these 2 or 3000 properties that have to be basically sold into the marketplace and prices are down, which always creates contagion. Why? Because think about it. You're a mid-level bank. So a mid-level bank in the US is $250 billion or less in assets. Well, a lot of these assets are these banks are the ones that loaned out money to multifamily and retail and hotel and in office, and now are being forced by the Federal Reserve through a process known as mark to market. They're being forced to write down the value of these assets because these assets, you know, there's still you know, there's still active loans, but maybe they they loan $20 million.

 

Speaker 1 (00:23:00) - And now basically they're $20 million is only worth 18 or 16 or 15. And so now the fed is saying, hey, you know, you got to mark these assets down in value. And as they mark them down to value, that can lead to the banks becoming or mid-sized banks becoming less stable. I don't think this affects any of the large banks in the US, but the midsize ones are affected. And some of those mid-sized banks do lend to the single family space, but not a lot. I find that the single family space, when I look at their source of lending, not a lot of those mid-sized banks are involved. There's a little bit they do some brokerage work, but then they're selling those loans back to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac and a bunch of other, you know, governmental type organizations. So I don't see a sense of contagion in the single family space. I do see potentials of some price declines because until about two months ago, mortgages were predominantly in the sixes. They, you know, they spiked up once to the sevens and then they pulled back into the sixes.

 

Speaker 1 (00:23:56) - Now they've gone into the sevens and they may stay in the sevens for a substantial amount of time. When that happens, that can affect the single family market as well, simply because, you know, you can get to the point where supply is higher than, than demand. So I wouldn't be surprised if there's a pullback in single family prices. Let's call it 5%. But I'm not predicting the kind of challenges where the office market think we could see 40% declines in prices from peak, whereas single family you might see 5%. I think that's still an incredible outcome for the single family market compared, you know, just looking at the outrageous increases in prices since Covid don't I don't think that's a even a pullback. I would just say that's a balancing out.

 

Speaker 2 (00:24:44) - Who know the residential housing market. Really, it's something that's non-discretionary on a human need basis. Everyone needs to live somewhere and they will either own rent or be homeless. And you talked about some of those affordability challenges before. The lower the homeownership rate gets, the more renters you have.

 

Speaker 2 (00:25:05) - So long term, we will have some demand baseline for both multifamily and properties in the 1 to 4 unit space, of course, but the same thing cannot be said about some of these other commercial sectors, especially the troubled office sector space, where you have more and more abandoned buildings downtown. And a lot of these office buildings cannot be easily converted from offices to residential units. So why don't you talk to us about some of those other troubled commercial sectors, starting with office.

 

Speaker 1 (00:25:35) - Office is in a apocalypse. I think that this is far, far worse than 2008 and far, far worse than than 2001, because 2008 and 2001, they were liquidity crisis. They were short term, you know, demand crisis. This is a long term demand crisis because, you know, I read very important documents from companies that are in the key swiping business. You know, when you enter an office in a downtown core, you're swiping your card. And so those companies actually have phenomenal day by day data of how many people are actually going into offices today.

 

Speaker 1 (00:26:11) - It's been more than a year since companies started calling back, you know, people to the office and think that by now every company, whether you know, they're they're forcing five days back to the office or four days or three days or two days, everyone's sort of, you know, put their line in the sand. And we're at the point where, you know, this, this is what offices look like going forward. And if I'm right and this is what it looks like going forward, it is simply catastrophic for the office market in the United States, because we're still seeing key swipes at 50 to 60% of the people that used to swipe in before Covid. And that number is staggeringly, staggeringly low. And if this is what it settles at, you know, some companies are two days, some three, some four. I think we're in for a world of pain for the office market. You also, you know, there's a lot of people that in these podcasts basically will often say something like, no, the office stuff will get converted into residential.

 

Speaker 1 (00:27:06) - And I have news for you, only 3% of office buildings in office in downtown course have the floor plate, the floor plate necessary for residential conversion. Why? Because residential conversion by law requires that every every single room have a window. So what is happening is most of the time you basically can only convert the buildings on the edge, the, the square footage on the edge of a building, but that's central core but then becomes worthless. And if you don't have a use for it, then you still have to buy that office building to convert and you have to buy it at a reasonable price. The math doesn't work. I mean, you'd you'd need to see office values down 80% for, for, you know, a somebody who's converting to multifamily to say, fine, I'll just leave the 60% in the middle empty and I'll just convert the size. So 80% declines in value are needed for that kind of conversion to happen. So we are about to see a ten year problem in the office sector.

 

Speaker 1 (00:28:03) - And it's also dragging down all of the other assets in the downtown core. So we are seeing we just saw a $727 million default on two hotels in San Francisco. We saw a $558 million mall default. Also in San Francisco, we're seeing defaults across the board in New York, Boston, Seattle, San Diego, Miami, sort of heavy markets where this these challenges are happening. We're seeing a lot of these and it's happening in a very, very slow way. Keith. And the reason for that is the office market, their average lease is, you know, five years long. Some leases are ten years long, and a lot of these companies haven't gone out of business. So if the company is in the lease, they're continuing to pay even though the office is empty. But the moment that lease comes up for renewal, either the company doesn't renew it or they renew maybe half the space. Right. And so we we already know that this is an incredible debacle, but it doesn't seem like it at any given point of time because it's happening in a very slow motion way.

 

Speaker 2 (00:29:02) - Well, that's such a good point about how there will be this slow drain, this slow leak when these office leases expire over time. What about other areas of the commercial space, any other particularly troubled areas or bright spots that you see going forward?

 

Speaker 1 (00:29:21) - Ironically bright spots. And this is where I've been proven wrong in the past. You know, I've often maybe 4 or 5 years ago talked about the retail apocalypse, right, where Amazon would basically, you know, lead the retail market to become illiquid. Well, none of those things have happened because of two reasons. One is the retail apocalypse with people like me, you know, being on on 200 podcasts, talking about it, a lot of development of retail that was scheduled to happen simply didn't happen. So the very.

 

Speaker 2 (00:29:48) - Late podcast, people lost confidence. No. They were invested in retail.

 

Speaker 1 (00:29:52) - Exactly right. So so, you know, I fulfilled that prophecy. Think. But bottom line is that there's there's been very responsible levels of new construction in retail.

 

Speaker 1 (00:30:02) - So, you know, they haven't built a lot. Very few models have been built in the United States in the last few years. And even some of the malls that have been repurposed, some of their square footage is being used up for, for multifamily. And so that was one. The second reason is that retail is being very careful with pricing. So, you know, over, over the last 5 or 6 years, the retail market has adjusted to new forms of pricing, where, you know, you go into a mall and you see a gym where before the pricing of that mall never really allowed for a gym to be in a mall. It just gyms, you know, they want, you know, a lower price per square foot. And so malls have adjusted, strip malls have adjusted. And so today we have a surprising event where retail occupancy in the United States is higher than multifamily. This is the first time ever that multifamily is about a little under 95%. Now it's 94% occupied.

 

Speaker 1 (00:30:52) - Retail is 96 or 97% occupied, which never happens, right? Normal. Normally retail is right around 90%, 88%, something like that. But the high level of occupancy shows that that retail is doing well. Now, having said that. So so on the occupancy side, they're doing really well. There's there's really no pullback in terms of demand. But on the other side, because of the fact that interest rates are so high, retail cap rates are very high, which means prices are low. So prices are very reasonable there for retail. And so I think that real opportunity that I'm seeing I wouldn't invest in office at this point, Keith, because you don't know the end of this process. You don't know how long it takes. I think it takes a decade. So I might get 50% off in office and I don't want it. I just don't want to touch that asset class. It's tainted. Now, if I get 40% off in retail, I think I'm interested because fundamentally I don't see a demand issue if this is the highest occupancy that retail has seen ever.

 

Speaker 1 (00:31:53) - And at the same time, I'm getting a 40 or 50% discount simply because of lack of lending. Well, that is to me a classic opportunity to look at because once again, fundamentally, nothing is wrong with demand. And I realize that the Amazon effect is extremely real. But what I'm seeing is that that people want that experience of shopping. And so even amongst the young people, sure, each year Amazon, you know, goes up a little bit. But now Amazon's growth is no longer a hockey puck. Amazon's growth is sort of like this. You know they're growing by 10%, 15% a year, which is still great for Amazon. But I think when you when you project that across a 300 million person market that the US is retail no longer has to fear for an apocalypse. So this is actually a pretty good time to take advantage of the 40% discounts that I think will happen in 2024 for retail. Same thing. Everything I just said also applies to hotels. Hotels came out of the pandemic very strong, with huge increases in ADR or average daily rates and huge, huge increases in occupancy.

 

Speaker 1 (00:32:55) - So hotels right now are a very robust cash flowing business. If you've got good hotels and good locations, you're making a lot of money. They're cash flowing like crazy because their orders have gone up and their occupancy has gone up. So they've taken two positive hits. But once again, I expect there to be discounts simply because of a lack of funding, a lack of loans. And you can you might we might easily see 30%, maybe not 40, but 30% discounts in hotels in the next 12 months. So think both of those are really good opportunities, along with multifamily discounts at 25%. So this is an opportunity. This is a case of distress creating unusual levels of opportunity. I don't think we're quite there yet, Keith. We're beginning to see some distress in multifamily. We're certainly seeing distress in office. We haven't heard anything about the distress in retail or hotels yet. That's because a lot of their their loans don't don't trigger until 2024. Right. So that's we'll see what happens next year when these loans start to trigger and you can't really refinance them.

 

Speaker 2 (00:33:57) - I completely believe that inflation has thoroughly soaked in to hotels. You talk about their ADR, their average daily rate. I've recently stayed at hotels in Denver, Omaha, Chicago, Toledo and Boston, so I've gotten a pretty good sample size and sure feel the hit there. And interestingly, the last time I shopped at a mall, it was the biggest mall in this city, and I noticed a bowling alley that I had not noticed there before. And I went bowling and noticed an ice skating rink was there. So I just wonder how much retail can reinvent itself if it tilts enough into the experiential part, rather than just buying items off a shelf at a store, maybe that can help sustain that retail sector, to your point. Well, Neil, maybe we should wrap up really on what supports an awful lot of values in multifamily, and that is rents and the direction of rents, especially if we have almost hate to say this. R-word, a different R-word, a recession, because it seems like this thing has been around the corner forever.

 

Speaker 2 (00:35:03) - I know historically that rents are quite resilient in a recession, something that you touched on earlier back even during the 2008 global financial crisis, when I was a landlord, I owned fourplex buildings. Then I noticed that I had a pretty good steady stream of renters. My rents didn't really go up much, but they were really resilient. They didn't go down, and that's because people couldn't get a loan. So that was an affordability problem. Then we have another affordability problem now. But if we do tilt into recession, what do you think that is going to do to rents?

 

Speaker 1 (00:35:33) - I think we are going to see a decline in rents if a recession happens. Now, that's a question. By the way, six months ago, if you told me, you know, a recession wasn't going to happen, I'd say, no, that's not possible. We are going to go into a recession. However, I must admit that the US economy has truly, truly, truly outperformed beyond anyone else, beyond anyone's imagination.

 

Speaker 1 (00:35:54) - So today, the chances of a recession are certainly not 100%. Might be 50%. But let's assume that it happens and a recession happens. I think what is very, very likely is that this recession will be very short. So once again, if you're not paying attention to to to what's happening in the marketplace, this is a time that, you know, I was born in India and this is my adopted country. I feel very proud of the US economy today. If I compare the US economy to the Canadian, the eurozone, the Germans, the Japanese, we are outperforming every one of those economies. We're at the point where we're outperforming China, which almost never happens, by the way. And so we have an extraordinarily resilient and strong economy at this point. So if it falls into a recession just because the fed keeps hitting it over the head with this interest rate hammer, I think that recession will be fairly short, because as soon as the economy does go into a recession, the fed usually figures that out within a few months.

 

Speaker 1 (00:36:47) - Then they can stop hitting us with a hammer. I'm not saying that they'll just cut interest rates back to zero, but they certainly will provide some cushion. Maybe they cut rates by one one time, two times, just to make the market breathe a little bit easier. Because this is an artificial recession, there is no shortage of demand in the US economy. There's an incredible number of open jobs. There were as many as 11 million jobs now. Now there's about 9 million open. So there's there's a and wage growth has been so strong. Right. Because we have so many people retiring that at this point, for the first time since the early 60s, I believe, or late 60s, we actually have pricing power. So anyone who wants to be employed can ask for more money and get it. And so wage growth has been about four, 4.5%, which is really good for rents, by the way. It's phenomenal news because we needed wage growth for future rent growth. So we have a artificial recession if it does happen.

 

Speaker 1 (00:37:38) - And that artificial recession is being caused by the fed because they want that wage growth to come closer to 2% from the 4% that it's at, because everything else has come down. Right. So commodities have come down with the exception of oil, and so has, you know, so have the supply chain issues are gone, rents are down. So in the US the last 12 months, rents were flat and in some markets they might be down 1% or 2%. Austin I think was the only market that was down a lot. But most other markets were down very, very small amounts. So rents have been flat, which is, I think, really credible because if you look at rents over the last two years, they're up 16%. So in 2022 they were up 16%. In 2023 they were up basically zero. So if you average that out now you're looking at 8% rent growth, which is phenomenal compared to the long term average of 2.5%. So we've been outperforming on rent and we needed to take a breather in the last 12 months have been that breather.

 

Speaker 1 (00:38:32) - Now, if the recession happens, I do expect rents to go down, but not normally they don't. So in a in a in a six month, three month or six month average recession, you know, the average US recession is two quarters. So six months normally you don't get rent drops. You might get, you know, the rents plateau out. Or maybe their rent growth drops from 3% to 1%. That's that's much more common this time. We might see rent growth in a short recession drop by maybe 1% or 2%. And the biggest reason for that is supply. The largest supply of apartments in the history of the country is delivering, starting basically the beginning of 2023 until the end of 2024. So these two years, 2023 and 2024 are massive apartment supply years. And obviously, as you supply 500,000 apartments into an economy that overall is not outperforming, is is doing okay, but and it starts to go into a recession, then you're going to see some concessions. And that concession drives down the price of multifamily, which then drives down the price of single family rentals.

 

Speaker 1 (00:39:36) - So we could see a decline in rents. I'd say probably 1% to 2% is is possible, but that decline is likely to be short. So I think let's assume that the recession starts in the final quarter of 2023, which might not happen. I think it's more of a Q1 and Q2 of next year. If the recession does happen, those are the two most likely quarters. As soon as the economy rebounds and becomes positive, we should see very strong and stable rent growth. Well, I would say stable rent growth for the rest of 2024 by 2025, a lot of that incoming supply is done. So now supply supply and demand are in balance. So in 2025 I expect strong rent growth as much as 4 or 5%. And in 2026 I expect very, very strong rent growth. We might we might see 6% rent growth in 2026. So 2024 is that year where rent growth is a little bit shaky because of this. Word, the recession word. And, you know, whether it happens or not is we don't know.

 

Speaker 1 (00:40:37) - And when it happens, we don't know how long it lasts. But I think because it's an artificially induced recession, it's likely to be the vanilla US six month recession, which basically drives wages closer to that 2% target for the fed, and gives the fed the room to start easing up on interest rates.

 

Speaker 2 (00:40:56) - Recessions are not good. Perhaps the one positive about a recession is that then we can all stop talking about and speculating upon when does eventually happen, because on average, it does happen every five years. It's just a normal part of the business cycle. Well, Neal, this has been very informative around the multifamily world and beyond, including projections for the future. You've always got such great insight in stats on the pulse of the market. If someone wants to learn more about you and your resources, what's the best way for them to do that?

 

Speaker 1 (00:41:31) - Come join us at multifamily. That's multifamily, followed by the letter EW.com we get about 20,000 registrations in our webinars. We do about a dozen webinars each year.

 

Speaker 1 (00:41:41) - We do them on single family multifamily. We do them on other asset classes like office. We just did one on on on the office apocalypse and people like that because there's no education fee, there's no subscription, there's no upsell. People come join us. They learn a lot. And occasionally during one of these webinars, if you have a multifamily project that we are doing, we mention it for about 30s. And if that sounds like it's interesting, you can, you know, jump in and you know and participate. But otherwise, you know, there's a lot of tens of thousands of people that have never participated with us in any of our projects that come and join us at this ecosystem of learning called multifamily EW.com.

 

Speaker 2 (00:42:22) - Neal Bawa, Gro Capital and multifamily EW.com. It's been informative, just like it was the last time you were here. It's been great having you back on the show.

 

Speaker 1 (00:42:32) - Thanks for having me on, Keith.

 

 

Direct download: GREepisode473_.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 4:00am EDT

Before our PA Governor-appointed public official guest joins us, I discuss how autonomous cars expect to change real estate.

Richard Vague, Pennsylvania’s Secretary of Banking and Securities from 2020-2023 joins us. We’re in the state capital of Harrisburg, PA.

We discuss America’s beginnings in real estate and banking from around 1800.

He tells us about the health of banks in the wake of recent failures due to higher interest rates.

I ask Richard about full reserve banks vs. fractional lending banks.

Great Britain prohibited colonists from owning land west of the Appalachians. 

The basis of early land wealth were crops grown on the land—wheat, corn, tobacco, indigo, and rice.

Mortgages around 1800 were often 50% LTV and 6% interest rates.

Here in the 2020s, Richard believes that private sector debt is a larger problem than public debt.

Wherever debt growth is most rapid are where the economic cracks exist.

Inflation benefits the Top 10% of the economic strata.

Private debt becomes unsustainable around 225% of GDP. In the US, it’s currently 160%.

You become insolvent when you cannot make interest-only payments. That’s true for you as an individual, or a nation.

If these topics interest you, check out Richard’s new book, “The Paradox of Debt” at ParadoxOfDebt.com.

Timestamps:

America's beginnings with banking, real estate, and debt [00:00:01]

Discussion on the historical influence of Pennsylvania banking on the formation of US banking, including figures like Robert Morris and Alexander Hamilton.

The impact of autonomous vehicles on real estate [00:02:54]

Exploration of the potential effects of autonomous vehicles on real estate, including reduced need for parking and changes in commuting patterns.

The role of the Secretary of Banking and Securities in Pennsylvania [00:09:20]

Insight into the responsibilities of the Secretary of Banking and Securities in Pennsylvania, including oversight of banks and consumer protections.

The fractional reserve lending system [00:10:44]

Explanation of how banks operate through fractional reserve lending and the possibility of full reserve banks.

The origins of the US banking system and the role of Thomas Willing [00:12:06]

Discussion on the founding of the US banking system and the involvement of Thomas Willing, the first banker in the United States.

The land crisis of 1796-1797 and its impact on Robert Morris [00:14:14]

Exploration of the financial crisis caused by land speculation and how it led to Robert Morris, a prominent figure in credit ratings, ending up in debtor's prison.

The formation of the nation and its intersection with banking [00:21:50]

Discussion on the short-term loans and interest rates during the formation of the United States and the role of debt in the westward expansion.

Private sector debt and its growth [00:25:30]

Exploration of the significant increase in private sector debt since World War II and the focus on the potential issues associated with it.

Debt growth as an indicator of economic crises [00:28:23]

Insight into how rapid debt growth, particularly in the private sector, can serve as a predictor of economic crises and the shortcomings of economic models that exclude debt as a factor.

The paradox of debt [00:31:47]

Debt creates wealth, using leverage and appreciation to generate wealth.

The end game of private debt [00:33:29]

When the requirement to service debt slows the economy down to near zero.

Inflation profiting with real estate [00:37:42]

Real estate is not just an inflation hedging vehicle, but an inflation profiting vehicle due to fixed interest rate debt and rising rents.

Resources mentioned:

Show Notes:

GetRichEducation.com/472

Richard Vague’s new book:

ParadoxOfDebt.com

For access to properties or free help with a

GRE’s Investment Coach, start here:

GREmarketplace.com

Get mortgage loans for investment property:

RidgeLendingGroup.com or call 855-74-RIDGE 

or e-mail: info@RidgeLendingGroup.com

Invest with Freedom Family Investments. You get paid first: Text ‘FAMILY’ to 66866

Will you please leave a review for the show? I’d be grateful. Search “how to leave an Apple Podcasts review” 

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GREmarketplace.com/Coach

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GetRichEducation.com

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Keith’s personal Instagram:

@keithweinhold

 

Complete episode transcript:

 

Speaker 1 (00:00:01) - Welcome to. I'm your host, Keith Weinhold. I'm sitting down in Pennsylvania with the governor's appointed state secretary of banking and securities. What were America's beginnings with banking, real estate and debt? Learn how this affects you as an investor today. And what does America's day of debt reckoning look like today on Get Rich Education?

 

Speaker 2 (00:00:28) - You're listening to the show that has created more financial freedom than nearly any show in the world. This is Get rich education.

 

Speaker 1 (00:00:44) - Welcome from Harrisburg, Pennsylvania, to Harrisonburg, Virginia, and across 188 nations worldwide. I'm Keith Weinhold and you're listening to Get Rich. Education has been the Keystone state of Pennsylvania this week. In just a few minutes, you'll hear my sit down with secretary of banking and Securities for this great state of Pennsylvania from 2020 to 2023. The rather distinguished guest also sits on the Ivy League University of Pennsylvania's Board of Trustees. And before we're done, I'll be sure he understands at least one core principle here and get his opinion on that. Yeah, I visited seven US states so far here in the past month and I'll continue to visit so much of the United States.

 

Speaker 1 (00:01:28) - In fact, I might have done more driving this past month than at any time in my life. Now. Some people are really car people. We have this kind of car culture in the United States for some evidence that younger people aren't as interested in that is older people. I mean, some people, they get really excited about new car features or new dashboard interfaces or hybrids or EVs and charging stations. You know, none of that is really that interesting to me. However, you know, the one new car feature that I actually really care about and I'm waiting to go more mainstream. Any idea the one game changing car feature that I really can't wait to get here because it's really going to improve your quality of life. And mine and I talked about this way back in Get Rich Education Episode 13 in the year 2015 is something that is still expected to have substantial ramifications for real estate, and that feature is autonomous vehicles, also known as driverless cars. I mean, as much of the world that's automated these days and digitize, it feels like something is out of whack to have all of this technology that you have in your car today.

 

Speaker 1 (00:02:54) - Yet even if you're on cruise control out on Interstate 80, like I have been a lot lately, you've mostly got to keep your eyes glued to the car bumper in front of you. Yes. And the car that reliably drives itself. That's the new feature that I really want. I mean, imagine for you to be able to get some sleep or scroll your phone or I know that it sounds funny, even exercise while your car drives itself. And of course this still pretends to have a real impact on real estate. Cars will really need to be owned. It's just the subscription service that you order. A car comes to pick you up and then it drops you off where you need to go. So these cars just continue to stay in motion out there. You don't need a garage so much. And this means that cities won't need nearly as much parking. So parking lots are less important, parking garages are less important. And since you can be more productive while you're a passenger in the car drives itself, well, therefore, those neighborhoods that are say no one hour outside of the center or metro area, well, those areas won't have as much of a price discount because autonomous cars lower your time expense in commuting.

 

Speaker 1 (00:04:16) - But autonomous car adoption has been slower to develop than a lot of people, including me, expected. I mean, there have been a lot of experiments, But see, what happens is an experimental autonomous car crash that just makes more news than a human created car crash. And that has really slowed adoption. So yeah, I'm not so into cars. The only feature that's on the horizon that really gets me interested is winning back some of my time with autonomous cars. Hey, we have a ton of great podcast episodes lined up here at some of the most brilliant minds in the real estate and money world. Continue to join me coming up soon. Here on the show is the return of a really dynamic guest. He goes by the nickname the mad scientist of multifamily in the industry. Some call the amount of multifamily, mobile home parks self in other commercial real estate investors that have these floating interest rates, the amount of those people, it's almost insane. Higher rates are going to bring those deals down and investors will keep losing money in those deals.

 

Speaker 1 (00:05:27) - That's what the mad scientist of multifamily and I are going to focus on them. Yes, these people that learn how to perhaps do syndications through TikTok videos, they are losing their deals. Isn't that really is too bad because that reputation seriously that. The good operator, so we're going to sort that out for you. Then on a later episode here, one of the sharpest economic minds in the entire world joins us to discuss why the recession didn't happen as soon as he and a lot of others thought and what that means for the future of stocks and real estate and commodity prices. All of that is in the near future here on the show. But today I'm visiting my home state of Pennsylvania, where I've lived most of my life. It is the fifth most populous state, despite not being that large by area and despite the fact there are still a ton of rural areas in Pennsylvania, and of the five biggest states, Pennsylvania may very well have the deepest history. So we'll dig into some real history today.

 

Speaker 1 (00:06:31) - Pennsylvania banking was influential on the formation of United States banking, including that of Robert Morris. He's a pretty well known name, but he was succeeded by a better no name. Right after Robert Morse, we had Alexander Hamilton in that banking role. But yeah, Pennsylvania Robert Morris, he is known as the very financier of the American Revolutionary War. As we're about to discuss the nation's beginnings, America's formative years in land and real estate hundreds of years ago. Look, if a hundred years ago, a colonist or an early American, if he or she said this, I'm going to buy a piece of property and develop it. Okay. What do you think that meant when they said that today? If you said, I'm going to buy a piece of property and develop it, well, most people would think that you're going to build a housing development. But back then it probably meant that you were going to clear your land of trees and planted for agriculture and you're going to grow wheat or corn or tobacco.

 

Speaker 1 (00:07:37) - That was the discussion you were having then. What crop are you developing on your real estate? It sure wasn't. Are you going to develop apartments or condos or single family homes? That's how it might sound today. In fact, the 1790 census that shows that roughly 90% of the American population was employed in agriculture. 90%. So your real estate income was largely derived on your crop yield, which you might use to pay your debt on your land. Let's start this interview that I expect to be wide ranging as we'll take it from yesteryear up to the present day. This week's guest has served as secretary of banking and securities for the great state of Pennsylvania from 2020 to 2023. It is a cabinet level agency here in the state capital of Harrisburg. He was appointed to that position by Pennsylvania Governor Tom Wolf today. He is managing partner of Gabriel Investments as well based in Philadelphia. And today he's the author of an interesting new book. It's titled The Paradox of Debt A New Path to Prosperity Without Crisis. Welcome to Richard Vague.

 

Speaker 3 (00:08:53) - Thank you so much for having me.

 

Speaker 1 (00:08:55) - It's good to have you. For those of you listening in, the audio only vague is spelled vague. You and Richard, as Pennsylvania's secretary of banking and Securities, I know that you have various deputy secretaries that assist you. Tell me. I'm going to venture to guess that that role includes acts like the oversight of banks and various consumer protections. Are they important parts of that role?

 

Speaker 3 (00:09:20) - Without question. The fundamental job is looking to the safety and soundness of the banks chartered here in Pennsylvania to make sure they don't fail. And we all saw the importance of that recently. Silicon Valley bank failed in California. And I think if we'd had the caliber of examiners out in California that the folks here in Pennsylvania or that might not have happened.

 

Speaker 1 (00:09:44) - That's a nice compliment to those that have that oversight here in state, Richard. It sure has been interesting with interest rates actually not being historically high, but at the rate that they change and the rate that they spiked, making some things break everything else to tell us about that role with the oversight that you had of banks and consumer protections in Pennsylvania and really what everyday depositors are concerned with.

 

Speaker 3 (00:10:10) - Everyday depositors are concerned with getting the highest yield they can. Sure. And certainly they've been rewarded more lately than they have been over the last, let's say, ten years prior to that. But they also should be concerned about the safety and soundness of the bank they deposit with. And I think a lot of folks forgot that lesson. You know, a few years passed from a crisis and folks aren't worried about whether their bank's going to be around so much anymore. I'm really pleased to report the banks here in Pennsylvania are in really good shape.

 

Speaker 1 (00:10:44) - Richard, I don't even think that everyday depositors understand the fractional reserve lending institution system, which is really how most banks operate, and that is when a depositor gives the bank money or the money goes ahead and lends that out, that difference, that spread being their arbitrage, which is how they stay in business. I've got a rather interesting question, perhaps are full oil reserve banks feasible as the norm? And what I'm talking about there is banks that can't lend depositors money out and instead that bank needs to profit by charging fees to depositors.

 

Speaker 1 (00:11:23) - Now, I know everyone likes to get something for free, but would that be a more responsible system? Are full reserve banks feasible at all?

 

Speaker 3 (00:11:31) - If you did that. You know, that's something I've studied quite a bit, and that was a very active question, by the way. Yeah. In the founding of our banking system here in Pennsylvania in 1781, it's a question that's been around forever. Any economy needs to have money created in order to grow, and the banking system is what does that now. But if you banned that in the banking system, it would just have to happen somewhere else.

 

Speaker 1 (00:11:58) - Were there any prominent names that were involved with the setup of banking in Pennsylvania?

 

Speaker 3 (00:12:06) - The name that you hear the most is the guy named Robert Morris, who was the head of it was in effect, the secretary of the Treasury during the Revolutionary War. But his senior partner was the original banker in the United States, and his name was Thomas Willing in history has more or less forgotten him. And that's, by the way, the subject of my next book.

 

Speaker 3 (00:12:30) - I'm in the Middle of writing a biography of the origins of the US banking system and our first banker, Thomas Wells.

 

Speaker 1 (00:12:38) - There is a Robert Morris University in Pennsylvania, of course, and we're talking about history here, Richard. And I know that you have an excellent sense of history about the nation's beginnings in land and in real estate. Can you speak to that?

 

Speaker 3 (00:12:55) - The United States was all about land from the very beginning. You had massive land grants like to William Penn to found the state in the first place. But almost immediately after the founding of the country, you know, one of the reasons we had the American Revolution is because Great Britain prohibited colonists for owning land west of the Appalachian Mountains. And that was very frustrating to people like George Washington and others who had surveyed really lush pieces of land in the Ohio Valley. Immediately after the success of the revolution, the wealthy investors in America began buying millions and millions of acres towards the west, in the Ohio Valley, in Kentucky, in New York, in western Pennsylvania and the like, and got into trouble and brought the first financial crisis in US history, the land crisis of 1796 and 1797, because they were buying all that land on credit, either from the landholder, the private landholder or the the state or commonwealth that the land was in.

 

Speaker 3 (00:14:14) - They bought this under the presumption that the value of real estate would always go up and of course it just didn't go up fast enough. And Robert Morris to speak of someone actually ended up in debtor's prison because he overextended himself, which is somewhat ironic since he's something of a icon for credit ratings and credit prudence. And yet he was very much of a wild speculator and ended up in prison destitute.

 

Speaker 1 (00:14:45) - This is really interesting. Okay. And nefarious character early on in America's private real estate development, when the Appalachian mountain range in the late 1700s was deemed as the frontier to a lot of people.

 

Speaker 3 (00:14:59) - Absolutely. Everybody was looking west of there for the big games and the big opportunities.

 

Speaker 1 (00:15:06) - I mean, this is part of Manifest Destiny and the American Dream. So can you tell us more about a lot of that land in the early days west of the Appalachian Mountains? How much did the government claim is theirs and sell to private landowners on credit? And then how much were private landowners taking and were they allowed to make land claims and then sell it to someone else? Or tell us more about those early beginnings of that real estate setup?

 

Speaker 3 (00:15:34) - Well, that's exactly right.

 

Speaker 3 (00:15:35) - Most of that land was owned by the colonies, which in 1776 became states. The states own that land. The states all incurred massive debts in prosecuting the revolution itself. So by the time you get to 1783, 1787 states are deeply in debt and bondholders of state debt are not getting paid interest. And one way to alleviate that crisis was to sell land and selling it an acre here, an acre. There wasn't going to do you any good. So the states were selling land of 100,000 acre parcel a year, a million acre parcel there. Now, the guys that bought that, at first they were thinking, we'll do it, we'll develop towns, will lay out the towns, will survey them, will sell them, will attract settlers into this realm, will sell it plot buy plot to these settlers. But it was pretty clear that was a pretty slow way to make your money back. So they started looking to the wealthy in Europe and started sending brochures and agents to Europe to in essence, be able to flip their land in Early on, they were very successful at that.

 

Speaker 3 (00:16:54) - Guys like William Bingham, who was the richest man in America, and Robert Morris, who was one of the richest, would make, you know, 100,000 here and 100,000 there, which is tantamount to making tens of millions. Now that ended. They started doing bigger speculations. There weren't the settlers to buy it. The Europeans got a little bit smarter. You had a major national financial crisis, including, by the way, it wasn't just those Western lands. One of the biggest parts of the financial calamity was in the new town of Washington, DC, where they were moving the government, and people came in, including Robert Morris, thinking it's the seat of government where this is going to be a boomtown. And a lot of folks got into deep trouble speculating on plots in Washington DC.

 

Speaker 1 (00:17:42) - And if you're the listener, think that this sounds rather unorganized and free wheeling. Of course, we just need to think back a little bit earlier as to what happened when we as colonists went ahead and wrested the land away from the natives as well, of course.

 

Speaker 1 (00:17:57) - But yeah, Richard, you talked about some of the draw and the appeal to some of the land around Washington, D.C. there along the Potomac River. But just generally overall, in a lot of cases, this new American government, who were the land sellers trying to attract or were they trying to attract them to do, for example, was it to only and to set up a farm for agriculture or was it for trapping or what attracted people to this new land grab, if you will?

 

Speaker 3 (00:18:24) - The basis of wealth early on in the United States was the crops that we grew. And that obviously, first and foremost was wheat and the biggest supplier of wheat, not just in the United States, but to Europe was Pennsylvania. That's why Philadelphia became the largest city in the United States. Then just south of US and Maryland and Virginia. You had tobacco, which was our number one crop, but it was our number one export. South of that, you had indigo and rice. The further north you got, there really wasn't a lot of arable land.

 

Speaker 3 (00:19:03) - And that's why, you know, places like Massachusetts had to turn the manufacturing so heavily. It was really that. And fishing for cod were the only thing they could do. So, yeah, absolutely. We were a breadbasket for not just the country, but the world almost from the beginning.

 

Speaker 1 (00:19:21) - You talk early on about the extension of credit and how that enabled settlers to go ahead and own some of this new land? Is this sort of the early formation of long term mortgages? When did that.

 

Speaker 4 (00:19:35) - Occur?

 

Speaker 3 (00:19:36) - Well, absolutely. You know, really from well before independence. One of the problems you had is that there wasn't enough currency to really facilitate economic growth. So they began issuing paper currency in various forms. And a lot of these were very successful. This was done at the state level. And what they would do is they would create land banks. And so you would go in and take your land as a farmer. You would take it to the land bank and you could get currency up to half the value of your land and you'd pay interest on it.

 

Speaker 3 (00:20:14) - So it was really was a de facto mortgage, a.

 

Speaker 1 (00:20:18) - 50% mortgage, a.

 

Speaker 3 (00:20:19) - 50% mortgage, and you could spend that currency. They were well managed early on. Most of these didn't work, failed. And the first real commercial bank was Thomas Williams Bank in 1781 and Philadelphia.

 

Speaker 1 (00:20:35) - What were interest rates like at this time in these formative years of our nation.

 

Speaker 3 (00:20:40) - For bigger transactions, the range was really just 5 to 6%. It might get down to four, might get up to seven. Interest rates in the U.K. were closer to five and us, they were closer to six. There were breakdowns by a slice of an interest rate, so there wasn't an interest of 5.1% or 5.2%. And for high risk transactions, you could easily get into the same interest rate realm that some of our usurious lenders do today. Yeah, you see situations where folks in dire straits would borrow for an interest rate of 5% a month. A lot of loans in those days were very, very short term. There were the land loans that were long term.

 

Speaker 3 (00:21:28) - Most commercial banks made loans for 30 to 90 days, and they really were meant to bridge the period from when you, as a merchandiser bought your wholesale supplies to when you sold them as goods to the folks in your town. You could roll those loans over. But they were very short term back in those days.

 

Speaker 1 (00:21:50) - That is interesting. Those are really short term loans. And this is pretty parallel with what I've read around that time, that interest rates seem to be about 5%, something like that. We're talking about the formation of this nation, its beginnings in land, in real estate, and how that intersects with banking and the mortgage market and really part of the manifest destiny in the westward expansion of the United States. Yes, we are talking about a popular four letter word debt, and that word debt has only become more popular in America with consumerism here in past decades. So when Richard and I come back, we're going to talk more about debt today in the United States. In his new book, The Paradox of Debt, you can get that at Paradox of Debt.

 

Speaker 1 (00:22:35) - More we come back with Richard. I'm your host Keith Wayne hold you're listening to Get Rich Education. Jerry listeners can't stop talking about their service from Ridge Lending Group and MLS 42056. They have provided our tribe with more loans than anyone there truly a top lender for beginners and veterans. It's where I go to get my own loans for single family rental property up to four plex. So start your prequalification and you can chat with President Charlie Ridge personally, though even deliver your custom plan for growing your real estate portfolio. Start at Ridge Lending Group. You know, I'll just tell you for the most passive part of my real estate investing personally, I put my own dollars with Freedom family Investments because their funds pay me a stream of regular cash flow in. Returns are better than a bank savings account up to 12%. Their minimums are as low as 25 K. You don't even need to be accredited. For some of them. It's all backed by real estate. And I kind of love how the tax benefit of doing this can offset capital gains in your W-2, jobs, income.

 

Speaker 1 (00:23:48) - And they've always given me exactly their stated return paid on time. So it's steady income, no surprises while I'm sleeping or just doing the things I love. For a little insider tip, I've invested in their power fund to get going on that text family to 668660. And this isn't a solicitation If you want to invest where I do, just go ahead and text family to 66866. This is author Jim Rickards.

 

Speaker 4 (00:24:22) - Listen to Get Rich Education with Keith Reinhold and Don't Quit Your Day Dream.

 

Speaker 1 (00:24:37) - Welcome back to Get Rich Education. We're talking with the guest that served as the secretary of banking and securities for the great state of Pennsylvania since 2020. Today, he's the author of an interesting new book. It's titled The Paradox of Debt A New Path to Prosperity Without Crisis. His name is Richard Vig. He's joining us from here in Pennsylvania, where we are together today. And Richard, I know that you have a lot of commentary about modern debt and what we can do about today's debt and how debt really seems to have expanded a lot since Nixon pegged us from the last vestige of the gold standard back in 1971.

 

Speaker 1 (00:25:14) - I guess really the preeminent question, Richard, is should debt be a concern? We read all these stories about unrelatable numbers, about how the United States has $33 trillion of stated public debt. What's problematic?

 

Speaker 3 (00:25:30) - There's a lot more private sector debt than public debt. And I think private sector debt is the area where we need to focus and where our concern needs to be. Private debt has increased since World War two from 35% of GDP to 160% of GDP. Wow. So it's almost quintupled. There's about $41 trillion worth of private sector debt. That's a bigger number than the government debt number, and that's globally as well. There's about a $150 trillion worth of private sector debt and only about $90 trillion worth of government debt.

 

Speaker 1 (00:26:09) - And what is private sector debt? Are we talking about automobile loans, credit card loans, student loans?

 

Speaker 3 (00:26:14) - It's roughly divided between business and household debt. So if we've got 40 trillion in debt, it's about 20 business and 20 households. And within both of those categories, the single biggest type of debt is real estate by far.

 

Speaker 3 (00:26:31) - So within household debt, it's about 20 trillion. Almost 14 trillion of that is mortgage debt. On the business side, it's about 20 trillion. About 6 trillion of that is commercial real estate debt. So there's never been a time where real estate debt, household and commercial has not been really kind of the driving force of the economy.

 

Speaker 1 (00:26:57) - You got public sector debt and you got private sector debt. And, you know, it's kind of funny, Richard, if someone asked me what the difference between those two is, there's a few different directions you could go. What I like to tell some people is, well, the government can just print dollars, okay? Everyday consumers in businesses, they don't have that handle. So the government can print dollars and they can call that whatever name they want to quantitative easing. Maybe they want to call it currency creation. But over here, if the individual tries to do something like that, it's called counterfeiting. So, yes, it can be more problematic. Individuals cannot print their own dollars at home.

 

Speaker 3 (00:27:32) - That's exactly right. And that's why private debt is the area that we should focus more on. If you think about the great financial crisis of 2008, mortgage debt in 2002 was $5 trillion. By 2007, it was $10 trillion. It had doubled in less than five years. And we all now know that was millions of mortgages that it should never have been made. That was mortgages where the individuals had no income, no job, no assets. Those were homes that stood empty for years. And in many cases, they had to get torn down.

 

Speaker 4 (00:28:10) - Yeah.

 

Speaker 3 (00:28:11) - If you want to look out for trouble, the place to look is in the private sector debt. And the way to detect it is wherever it's growing very, very rapidly, that's where you're going to have a problem.

 

Speaker 1 (00:28:23) - So that's therefore a way to help predict economic crises. It's debt growth or I guess you could really call it credit growth as well, right? I mean, both credit and debt are basically the same terms for the different side of a transaction wherever the growth in that is most rapid is really where the economic cracks are.

 

Speaker 3 (00:28:43) - That's exactly right. And the fact that the Federal Reserve did not spot that in 2005 and six is one of the great stories of our time. They build economic models that don't even include debt as a factor whatsoever. Everybody finds that very surprising. It's called the DSG model, and it models the future of the economy without taking into consideration anything about debt.

 

Speaker 1 (00:29:12) - Why is that excluded? Mean, I'm a bit taken aback by what you just told me. Think you can tell.

 

Speaker 3 (00:29:18) - It's the fact. And economists got so theoretical going back a couple of decades that they started separating out financial economy from what they call the real economy. And they just stopped studying the financial economy as kind of a secondary matter to the real economy. The real economy would be, you know, the wheat and the automobile that gets manufactured and so forth and so on. My argument is those two things are inseparable. You shouldn't and cannot consider one without the other. And that's a huge blind spot in our Orthodox economics profession.

 

Speaker 1 (00:30:01) - Tell us more about how what we've discussed ties in to the thesis of your book.

 

Speaker 1 (00:30:06) - Richard The Paradox of Debt. What's the paradox?

 

Speaker 3 (00:30:10) - Paradox is that debt creates wealth, but it also creates calamity. So, for example, in the pandemic, 20 through 22, government debt alone increased by $8 trillion. Household wealth increased by $30 trillion. So the money the government spends does not disappear. It actually goes into the checking accounts of households. So at the end of that three year period, households had 8 trillion more in deposits in their checking accounts. And the flood of new money had pushed up real estate and stock values. So cash in bank accounts increased by 8 trillion, and the value of real estate and stocks increased by 20 something trillion. So households were $30 trillion better off at the end of 22 than they had been at the end of 19. However, most of that, like 80% of that benefit, went to the top 10% of the population. And that's for the very simple reason that most assets, most stocks and real estate are held by the top 10%, like 65% of all the stock in real estate in the country is held by the top 10%.

 

Speaker 3 (00:31:32) - The bottom 60%, six 0%, only hold about 14% of the stocks in real estate. So for real estate and stock values go up, it's the most well-to-do that get the benefit.

 

Speaker 1 (00:31:47) - That's right. And it's really the listeners on this show that we want to help take from poor or middle class and help them understand something you said in just a couple of minutes ago, that debt creates wealth, which is a paradox to many. The title of your book is The Paradox of Debt. So here what we often do is get 75 to 80% loans on an income producing property where the rent income meets or exceeds all of the expenses. And this is creating wealth. How is that wealth generated debt? A 75 to 80% loan debt is leverage and leverage appreciation actually makes compound interest look pretty slow. So a very concrete example in a sense of the paradox of debt that we're using right here at Get Rich education. Richard.

 

Speaker 3 (00:32:31) - You have described something that is not just true about real estate transactions, but it's true about the economy as a whole.

 

Speaker 3 (00:32:40) - That's the essential analysis. Yeah. And to put some macro numbers on it, in 1980, total debt in the economy, government plus household was 125% of GDP. Today it's 260% of GDP. Yeah. Yeah. And that exact same time span, household wealth, net of debt went from 352% of GDP to 600% of GDP. Debt created. Well.

 

Speaker 1 (00:33:12) - Yes, those are some astonishing figures. I guess as we're winding down here, Richard, one might wonder, well, where is the ceiling? When is the day of reckoning? When do we reach a calamity? How do we know that there's too much private debt and how does that actually look?

 

Speaker 3 (00:33:29) - We have a chapter on that very subject in the book there. It's pretty easy to see that there's an end game on the private sector side. And right now we're at about 160% of GDP. We think that that's probably somewhere in the 225% of GDP range here in the United States when there's so much debt that the requirement to service that debt slows the economy down to near zero.

 

Speaker 3 (00:34:00) - On the government debt, for the very reason you suggested that limitation doesn't really exist, the government could refinance its debt in perpetuity. As we said a moment ago, that ends up in the bank accounts of households anyway. So the thing I look to and I'm concerned about is private debt. Even though if you go flip on the cable news channels, you would think the world's about to end because of our government debt.

 

Speaker 1 (00:34:26) - Now tell me, am I oversimplifying things here, at least with private debtors, everyday Americans, when an interest only payment on your debt exceeds your ability to service it each month? Is that the path to bankruptcy right there?

 

Speaker 3 (00:34:42) - You got it. And whatever you say about an individual, you can say about the economy as a whole, because GDP is really just the sum of the individuals and businesses in the US. So if all the individuals and businesses are approaching this, the circumstance you just described, economy is not going to grow well there.

 

Speaker 1 (00:35:03) - Any last things that you would like to tell us about you very well received book because again, it's called The Paradox of Debt in the subtitle is A New Path to Prosperity Without Crisis.

 

Speaker 3 (00:35:14) - We cover the same material for the other six largest countries in the world. So if you read the book, you're not just going to learn about the US, you're going to learn about China, Japan, Germany, France, England and India. And I think it gives you the kind of fulsome grounding you need to better understand the news stories that we get such a barrage of every day.

 

Speaker 1 (00:35:38) - That's right. We need a frame of reference and putting our own more domestic debt into perspective here. Well, Richard, if someone wants to get a hold of the book, remind them of how they can best do that.

 

Speaker 3 (00:35:49) - Thank you so much. Go to Paradox of Debt or go to Amazon or Barnes and Noble and just search for that and it'll be right there.

 

Speaker 1 (00:35:58) - Oh, Richard, you've helped expand our debt mindset somewhat here on the show today. It's been great having you here.

 

Speaker 3 (00:36:05) - It's been such a privilege. Thank you for having me.

 

Speaker 1 (00:36:14) - A lot of interesting history with Richard Vig today, this great state of Pennsylvania's secretary of banking and securities.

 

Speaker 1 (00:36:20) - One concept that really hasn't changed throughout history that we discussed there is that inflation mostly benefits those at the top. Again, check out Richard's book at Paradox of debt.com. But yes, real estate, it is still known as an inflation hedge. You still hear that term thrown around a lot but I really try to use a different term not hedge I don't like hedge. Okay. In the investing world, the word hedge means something that you do to offset risks. I don't like that word used with real estate. So therefore, the word hedge that really correlates with a defensive strategy. I mean, hedge, that's probably a better term for gold. Gold is a hedge against inflation. That makes sense to me. But where I draw the distinction is that investment property bought with a loan is not merely a hedge against inflation. That's why when I coined the real estate pays five ways back in 2015, the fifth benefit, it's not called inflation hedging. It is called inflation profiting. Now, if you're only looking at the overall capital price of your real estate, even your own home, well then it's dollar denominated price alone.

 

Speaker 1 (00:37:42) - Well, that could be a hedge against inflation. But that's only the beginning, because when you get the fixed interest rate debt with it, now you're profiting because inflation debases your debt while the tenant makes all of the payments. And then as your rents rise with inflation, the reason that your monthly profit, your cash flow rises faster than inflation is, of course, due to the fact that your principal and interest payment stays fixed and feels really low over time. That's the inflation Triple Crown that I just described right there. And that's why when you buy investment property, REIT real estate is not just an inflation hedging vehicle, it is an inflation profiting vehicle. And today real estate isn't just scarce. It is still about 60% below the needed supply. And then amidst that, within that, single family homes are even more scarce. And then entry level homes that make the best rentals are even more scarce than that. But here on the show, we connect you with those builders and providers that are making the most in-demand properties available.

 

Speaker 1 (00:38:59) - Oftentimes these single family homes that are entry level. So therefore, in this environment, if you can get a hold of those, you are going to own a scarce asset that everyone wants. That's what we help you do here. But mortgage rates have been a hindrance for adding investments. But with our referral network here, we have largely solved that problem for you. We have providers that offer 5.75% mortgage rates because they buy down your rate for you less. We're going to show you've heard how a Marketplace income property provider is offering an astounding 4.75% mortgage rate. And although it has some shortcomings, there are also 2.99% seller financed investment properties that you can tie up. Yes. Today. So profit from a scarce asset that everyone wants and benefits from higher inflation. And today it really tilts toward you, often giving more consideration to new build properties because builders, they're the ones that are aggressively buying down your rate for you today. And new builds also have lower insurance rates last year. To make it easier for you, we started our free investment coaching service so contact your investment coach to help get you started.

 

Speaker 1 (00:40:19) - Some of our more popular markets lately are in Ohio, Indiana, Missouri, Tennessee, Alabama, Florida, Georgia in summer. So whether you like to connect with the provider on your own, if that's what you like to do or if you don't, you can then just utilize our service free of charge investment coaching. You can do all of that at GREmarketplace.com thanks to Richard Vague today until next week I'm your host Keith Weinhold. Don't quit your daydream!

 

Speaker 5 (00:40:57) - Nothing on this show should be considered specific, personal or professional advice. Please consult an appropriate tax, legal, real estate, financial or business professional for individualized advice. Opinions of guests are their own information is not guaranteed. All investment strategies have the potential for profit or loss. The host is operating on behalf of Get Rich Education LLC exclusively.

 

Speaker 1 (00:41:25) - The preceding program was brought to you by your home for wealth building. Get rich education.

 

 

Direct download: GREepisode472_.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 4:00am EDT

At age 20, you’re actually happy to trade your time for money. 

At 30, many have realized that they don’t want to work at their job for the rest of their lives. 

At 40, if you have collected things that pay you to own them, you’re financially-free.

Instead, by age 50, corporate ladder-climbers often realize that their ladder was leaning up against the wrong building.

Most people play the wrong financial game all their life. You want to get financially-free first. You can get debt-free later.

“The Debt Decamillionaire” concept is revisited.

Learn how to get 4.75% mortgage rates for Florida income property with what is known as a “builder-forward commitment”. Start here

What about hotly spiking Florida property insurance? We discuss how premiums have been kept in-check with post-2004 built property and more.

Expect $3,200 rents on a new-build $474K duplex with 4.75% mortgage rates in Southwest Florida.

SFRs are available too. Start here

There’s free PM for the first year too. 

Resources mentioned:

Show Notes:

GetRichEducation.com/471

4.75% mortgages in Florida:

GREmarketplace.com/Southeast

If you’d like help with one of 

GRE’s Investment Coaches (free), start here:

GREmarketplace.com/Coach

Get mortgage loans for investment property:

RidgeLendingGroup.com or call 855-74-RIDGE 

or e-mail: info@RidgeLendingGroup.com

Invest with Freedom Family Investments. You get paid first: Text ‘FAMILY’ to 66866

Will you please leave a review for the show? I’d be grateful. Search “how to leave an Apple Podcasts review” 

Top Properties & Providers:

GREmarketplace.com

GRE Free Investment Coaching:

GREmarketplace.com/Coach

Best Financial Education:

GetRichEducation.com

Get our wealth-building newsletter free—

text ‘GRE’ to 66866

Our YouTube Channel:

www.youtube.com/c/GetRichEducation

Follow us on Instagram:

@getricheducation

Keith’s personal Instagram:

@keithweinhold

 

Monologue transcript:

 

Welcome to GRE! I’m your host, Keith Weinhold. Financially, you need to play a game worth winning. It’s not about being debt-free. Instead, I discuss how at each age-when you’re 20, 30, 40, 50 and beyond, it’s about being financially-free.

 

Then, in an era where mortgage rates are 7 to 8%, we go straight to the source, in Florida, on how to get 4¾% mortgage rates on new-build property. Today, on Get Rich Education.

___________

 

Welcome to GRE! From Framingham, MA to Dillingham, AK and across 188 nations worldwide, yeah, you & I are back together here on Episode 471 of Get Rich Education. I’m your host, Keith Weinhold. 

 

You’ve got to play a game worth winning - with your personal finances. Most play the wrong game. 

 

Now, you’re already initiated on this. Debt-free just means that you don’t owe anyone anything. FF means that you’ve got enough passive income that you can do what you want to do, when you want to do it. FF is the flex.

 

Now, when you’re around age 20 - you might be new to full-time employment. 

And you know what, it actually can feel kinda good when you’re in your early twenties are you’re being paid what feels like a respectable income for the first time in your life.

 

Now, ten years go by, and by the time that you’re 30, you know, I think that a lot of work-a-day job types - you might tell yourself, ya know, making money is alright at this point. But I really don't want to do this for the rest of life.

 

Maybe around age 30, you pursue alternative avenues of more RESIDUAL income. 

 

But some people just keep plowing ahead hating big chunks of their life and devoting energy at a full-time job, because somehow, you feel like you HAVE to.

 

Others, though it’s a minority, it’s you. Because, instead, maybe around age 30, you tell yourself that you’d rather start building things that pay you to own them.

 

The mindset supersedes the grindset.

 

And by age 40, you’re out. You’re out of that soul-sucking job and you’re living that life that you’ve always dreamed of living already. It sure could happen earlier.

 

And by age 50, you’re so glad that you chose the financially free financial track in life - rather than the debt-free track.

 

Back on the slow, scarce debt-free track - the people that mistakenly think that debt-free is the game worth winning - they’re still losing their zero-sum, non-replenishable resource of time in their 30s and 40s and 50s and 60s and maybe 70s. 

 

Perhaps somewhere around 30, abundantly-minded, aware people like you developed your divergent, not-running-with-the-herd FF path instead. 

 

You believe that money is an abundant resource - because you start having it all around you. 

 

You built a financial windfall for yourself with simultaneous RE cash flow, leverage, and arbitrage while you’re young enough to enjoy it.

 

Instead, the “work at a soulless job” type tries to get debt-free, climb the corporate ladder, and believes that money is a scarce resource (which is why they think they need to be debt-free). They defer their life and get eaten up by inflation and zero passive cash flow.

 

THAT person, by age 50, is asking themselves where all the time went. It went to a job that you’re not passionate about - and you can’t change history. All those time chapters of your life… are… gone. 

 

And you begin to realize that the corporate ladder that you climbed… was leaning up against the wronggggg building for decades.

 

Those are two paths of those in their productive working years - the “there’s never enough” debt-free world vs. the “money is abundant” FF world.

 

If you retire debt, like paying off a mortgage early, all those dollars are gone, when they could have been leveraging, say, 5 properties at once.

 

Now, if you’re late to realize this, like you didn’t have the FF epiphany by 30 or whatever. It’s not too late.

 

You’ll remember that in recent months here, we had two GRE listeners come on the show for two different episodes - Scott Saunders and then Shawn Finnegan. 

 

Shawn - you might remember that was the inventor of a home gym system - he didn’t hear this show & start until he was 52 and he’s gotten to his first $2,000 of passive cash flow fairly quickly. 

 

FF beats DF. And FF is the game worth winning.

 

Retiring debt early means your dollars can't be employed in true wealth-building activities. 

 

Now, look. You might call me old-fashioned on this. But I like the integrity of doing what I say that I’m going to do, following through, and following up.

 

We check back at the end of the year to see how GRE’s housing price appreciation forecast from the previous year actually went.

 

Back in January, we had the return of an agricultural RE principal where the cash flows DIDN’T hit what were targeteded, so we followed through and discussed why THAT happened.

 

And now…

 

You might remember that a few years ago, here on the show, I introduced you to the novel concept of being the Debt Decamillionaire. 

 

That means that you’ve achieved $10M in debt - which doesn’t sound like an achievement to most people. That’s the Debt Decamillionaire. I recommended this as a desirable path for you - though many could deem it iconoclastic or even heretical. 

 

If the only thing that I knew about you is that, say, you had $10M in real estate debt, I’d know that the chances are good that you’re a financial WINNER. 

 

Yep, it’s actually unlikely that $10M in debt would make you a loser.

 

Not only would you have to be creditworthy to even get $10M of debt… just think about if you would have tied up that much debt, say, five years ago.

 

Well, how has it actually gone for the person with $10M in income property debt over the past 5 years? 

 

We've had perhaps… 25% cumulative inflation since then - with higher wages, prices, salaries, and rents.

 

So then, your $10M debt is whittled down to just $7½M of inflation-adjusted debt. 

 

So inflation passively beat down your debt for you, plus your tenants would have paid it down to somewhere below $7M.

 

So now, you’d be $3M wealthier, just off the debt debasement alone. 

 

Meanwhile, over on the asset side, your property value that you borrowed against might have gone from something like $12M up to $18M… and all

 

While it created ALL that leverage plus some cash flow and tax benefit for you at the same time.

 

If you only managed to tie up $1M in investment property debt, then just take 10% of all those numbers. 

 

And pat yourself on the back for being a debt MILLIONAIRE. Ha! Not Debt Decamillionaire.

 

Instead, high inflation made the debt-free approach hurt - really sting over the last five years. The opportunity lost!

 

DF is playing small ball, saying money is a scarce resource, and it even correlates more with people being addicted to a paycheck. 

 

There’s a benefit to a paycheck. But is the trade-off worse? Paycheck dependence is like you being addicted to a TIME thief. 

 

That is, unless you get an unusually extraordinary amount of meaning from your work. In that case, great. 

 

Now, a high interest rate environment could narrow the gap between how much better FF is than DF. But we’re not in one of those. We’re in a historically average interest rate environment.

 

But in just a few minutes here, we’ll bring in a prominent American homebuilder of BTR homes that’ll tell you how to still get mortgage rates as low as 4¾%. 

 

In fact, the time in the market cycle is really right for talking about this. You’ll remember that last month, Housing Intelligence Analyst Rick Sharga & I discussed why today’s market is a good opportunity for residential REIs.

 

It’s a bad market for primary residence HBs

It’s a bad market for flippers

 

It’s a bad market for real estate agents - with lower sales volume.

 

And it’s a… decent market for many homebuilders. 

 

I am in Chicago today. 

 

Next week, I’ll be in - my home state - the Keystone State of PA. I’ll Sit down with Richard Vague, the Secretary of Banking and Securities for the great Commonwealth of PA from 2020 to 2023, there in the state capital, Harrisburg. 

 

It is a cabinet-level agency.

 

He was appointed to that position by PA’s Governor.

He also sits on the Ivy League University of Pennsylvania Board of Trustees.

 

I’ll be sure he understands some core GRE principles here and get HIS opinion on those. That should be a really interesting episode next week. I don’t know what kind of turn that’s going to take.

 

To review what you’re learned so far, I think you already know that FF beats DF. 

 

Rushing to be debt-free exacts an opportunity cost on you. It postpones what you really want - Financial Freedom… and once you get FF, if you do desire to be debt-free then, hey, great! 

 

Let’s discuss how to get lower Florida insurance premiums, 4¾% mortgage rates and a free year of property management. 

 

A lot of our listeners have acted on this. And I don’t want you to miss out because I don’t know how long it can last.

___________

 

Usually, you see fewer investors that want to exchange their properties in a higher interest rate environment, because you’re trading in a lower rate property for a higher rate property. 

 

But here, 1031s look more attractive because we’ve bent that back with rates down to 4.75% + lower insurance premiums on post-2004-built Florida property plus 1 year of free PM.

 

So many of you have been acting here on this - either by yourself at GRE Marketplace, or working through one of our free Investment Coaches. So, if it can help you, don’t miss out. This won’t last forever.

 

You can get started at: GREmarketplace.com/Southeast

 

Until next week, I’m your host, Keith Weinhold. DQYD!

Direct download: GREepisode471_.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 4:00am EDT

Crime, homelessness, poverty, immorality, theft and urban decay. What are US cities turning into?

NYC Mayor Eric Adams has said that 100,000 new migrants will destroy his city.

With business and residents moving out of many urban cores, property tax revenues decline. 

San Francisco’s Union Square neighborhood has been especially hard hit. 60,000 people left SF county from 2020 to 2022. There’s homelessness, crime, higher housing costs and more remote work. There are now shuttered storefronts. Nordstrom and Whole Foods closed there.

Vacant office buildings often can’t be turned into residential housing. This accelerates decay and urban stagnation.

Author Doug Casey joins the discussion.

We discuss the “Defund the Police” movement.

The fall of Rome and Babylon are compared.

Learn what other nations think about America today. If America is so bad, why are migrants attracted to it?

We need to be mindful that nations, states, and cities all vary substantially by crime and demographics within them.

Resources mentioned:

Show Notes:

GetRichEducation.com/470

Doug Casey’s website:

InternationalMan.com

Doug Casey’s YouTube:

Doug Casey’s Take

If you’d like help with one of 

GRE’s Investment Coaches (free), start here:

GREmarketplace.com/Coach

Get mortgage loans for investment property:

RidgeLendingGroup.com or call 855-74-RIDGE 

or e-mail: info@RidgeLendingGroup.com

Invest with Freedom Family Investments. You get paid first: Text ‘FAMILY’ to 66866

Will you please leave a review for the show? I’d be grateful. Search “how to leave an Apple Podcasts review” 

Top Properties & Providers:

GREmarketplace.com

GRE Free Investment Coaching:

GREmarketplace.com/Coach

Best Financial Education:

GetRichEducation.com

Get our wealth-building newsletter free—

text ‘GRE’ to 66866

Our YouTube Channel:

www.youtube.com/c/GetRichEducation

Follow us on Instagram:

@getricheducation

Keith’s personal Instagram:

@keithweinhold

Direct download: GREepisode470_.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 4:00am EDT

Learn how to permanently reduce your tax burden. The greatest tax breaks for real estate investors are revealed.

But first, home prices are permanently elevated because they’re larger and with more amenities than they had in the 1970s. 

Today’s homes have vaulted ceilings, multiple fireplaces, granite countertops and more square footage. I describe.

John Hyre, the Tax Reduction Lawyer, joins us for the first time.

The top federal income tax rate is 37%. Learn where it’s headed next.

On your short-term rentals (like Airbnbs), sometimes you can reduce your taxes by legally stating that it’s a “hotel”.

Your rent income is taxed at less than your day job (W-2) income. Rent income is not burdened with social security and self-employment tax.

Learn exactly how tax depreciation lowers taxable income for real estate investors.

You’ll legally never pay any capital gains tax with a 1031 Exchange. We review how.

Will the 1031 Exchange go away?

John tells us how to get $100K tax-free out of your property—without doing an exchange.

Timestamps:

The direction of the marginal income tax rate [00:08:19]

Discussion about the current marginal income tax rate and the potential for changes in the future.

Tax changes under the Trump administration [00:09:22]

Explanation of the Trump tax changes and the potential impact of those changes on real estate investors.

Taxation of rental income [00:10:08]

Explanation of how rental income is taxed differently from regular job income, specifically regarding self-employment and social security taxes.

Opportunity and traps of Airbnb rentals [00:10:25]

Discussion on the potential to convert Airbnb income into losses and the tax implications of Airbnb rentals.

Making an Airbnb an active trade or business [00:11:41]

Exploring the distinction between treating an Airbnb as rental income or hotel income for self-employment purposes.

Accelerating depreciation with cost segregation study [00:14:17]

Explanation of cost segregation study and how it can help real estate investors lower their taxable income by depreciating certain assets more aggressively.

Tax Depreciation and its Benefits [00:21:34]

Explanation of how tax depreciation works in real estate investing and its value in reducing taxable income.

The Basics of 1031 Exchange [00:26:13]

Overview of the 1031 exchange, a tax-deferred exchange that allows real estate investors to swap properties without paying capital gains tax.

The Long-Term Benefits of 1031 Exchange [00:28:37]

Discussion on the strategy of using 1031 exchanges until death to maximize tax deferral and potentially convert it into tax-free gains for heirs.

The 1031 Exchange Trick [00:30:36]

Speaker 3 explains a trick to maximize the benefits of a 1031 exchange by utilizing passive activity losses.

The Pass-Through Deduction [00:33:21]

Speaker 3 discusses the concept of the pass-through deduction and its application to rentals, providing insights on how to maximize the deduction.

Future Tax Policies [00:36:15]

The potential tax policies of Democratic and Republican presidential candidates are discussed, with an emphasis on their stance towards real estate and taxes.

The 1031 tax deferred exchange [00:40:03]

Explanation of the 1031 tax deferred exchange and its potential benefits for real estate investors.

Disclaimer and advice [00:40:36]

Disclaimer about the show not providing specific personal or professional advice, and the need to consult appropriate professionals for individualized advice.

Sponsorship message [00:41:04]

Acknowledgment of the show's sponsor, getricheducation.com, as a platform for wealth building.

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Complete episode transcript:

 

Speaker 1 (00:00:01) - Welcome to. I'm your host, Keith Weinhold. Real estate investors get tax breaks like you'll find absolutely nowhere else in the entire tax code that can help you legally work the tax system like you're a billionaire and actually work your way toward becoming a billionaire. Today on Get Rich Education.

 

Speaker 2 (00:00:22) - You're listening to the show that has created more financial freedom than nearly any show in the world. This is Get rich education.

 

Speaker 1 (00:00:38) - Welcome from Belgrade, Serbia, to Bellingham, Washington, and across 188 nations worldwide with 5.2 million listener downloads. I'm your host Keith Weinhold and this is Get Rich education. Yeah, you're back at that abundant place and you gotta be because the scarcity mentality is abundant in the abundance mentality is scarce so be frugal with your time, not your money. You can afford to be because you live by the mantra that financially free beats debt free. Throughout our nine years of weekly shows here, Waiting in the Wings is just the third ever expert tax guest we've had on the show. The other two are Tom Wheelwright and Kristen Tate.

 

Speaker 1 (00:01:18) - You meet the third one in a few minutes. Here I am sitting the first half of this month in Denver, Omaha and then Chicago checking out real estate markets and more. Before we talk taxes. All prices have risen this year, just like they do most years, and they expect to stay elevated. I've talked before about all those reasons why demographic and supply demand and all of that, but why else are houses permanently more expensive today than they were decades ago, even when adjusted for inflation in some cases? Well, it's not all the dollars given to people during Covid or anything like that. It's just the fact that houses are bigger and more complicated than they were in the 1970s and 1980s. I mean, they used to build houses that were just 1000 or 1500 square feet. I mean, often it would be like a three bed, one bath house with a one car garage that used to be sort of the suburban staple. Well, today it'll often be four bed, three bath, three car garage with things that didn't exist in yesteryear.

 

Speaker 1 (00:02:26) - I mean, today you have things like multiple fireplaces and vaulted ceilings and more overall size and more amenities that would have just been considered a luxury home like 50 years ago. So the home quality is better and you also have more strict building codes that leads to things like more insulation or egress windows or different roofs or wiring or Hvac and plumbing in that courts are going to countertops, even in rentals. That was an unthinkable luxury 50 plus years ago. And also today, it's just more expensive to develop land. It takes years to get approvals for drainage and utilities and roads and environmental requirements. And after all that, all those factors that make us real estate more expensive. The US still has some of the most affordable property prices in the entire world. Now those changes that I talked about aren't bad. It just makes real estate more expensive. And a lot of times those changes are actually good. It means we have a higher and better standard of living now and now seemingly everyone from Warren Buffett, with his big investment in home builders to shark tanks, Barbara Corcoran's bullishness, I mean, all these people have made either bullish bets or bullish remarks on real estate, all these prominent figures.

 

Speaker 1 (00:03:52) - And we are to, in future episodes of the show here, someone who admits that he's a gloomier guest. He and I are going to produce a fascinating episode on the collapse of American cities, what's happening in some of our inner cities, How bad is it and how bad will it get? Yeah, we're talking about the collapse of American cities in that episode. And also in a few weeks, I will be in the Keystone state of Pennsylvania for a different, fascinating episode. That's what I'm going to sit down with. The Honorable Secretary of Banking and Securities for the great state of Pennsylvania. He's in that role from 2020 to 2023. That's a cabinet level agency there in the state capital of Harrisburg. And my guest for that show there, yes, he was appointed to that position by Pennsylvania's governor. And he also sits on the board of trustees for an Ivy League university. That is Penn there in Philadelphia. And I'll be sure that the secretary of banking and securities for Pennsylvania that he understands some core principles here and get his opinion on those.

 

Speaker 1 (00:04:58) - So, again, that's the secretary of banking and securities for the great state of Pennsylvania appointed by the governor. Coming up here on Gray. Now, when we look down the road into the more distant future here on the show in, well, I guess, 31 weeks on Monday, May 6th, 2024, do you have any idea what that day is? That day is episode 500 of the Get Rich Education podcast, and I'm going to take you on an abundance mindset journey then that I hope you'll never forget for episode 500. That's on May 6th of next year. So many other great episodes are in the works here for the show. The housing market has momentum. I have a lot of great material that I want to share directly with you, and we really have some of the top guests in the industry. And I guess they're attracted here because they know that they'll reach a large, passionate, actionable audience and that's what you are. So if you're new here to the podcast, I invite you come along with me.

 

Speaker 1 (00:06:01) - I think you'll find it valuable. If you immerse yourself, you'll find it life changing and everything that we do and offer here is free. This show reliably recurs in your life every single week without any exceptions, just like it has since 2014. And we have never replayed an old show. I am here for you. I'm inviting you. Be sure to subscribe or follow in your favorite pod catcher. And the reason that I tell you about the Get Rich Education mobile app is that if you have someone in your life whose life would like to be changed by real estate investing or could be changed by real estate investing but doesn't know about podcasts that way. For iOS and Android, you can just have them grab the Get Rich Education mobile app. We are in Q4 and it is time to think about your taxes before the year ends. Today's expert tax guest is brilliant and understands nuances about the tax code that I sure don't. This centers on the US tax code. But you know what? If you're outside the United States, many nations provide similar incentives to the United States.

 

Speaker 1 (00:07:08) - Now, I don't know about you, but in my opinion, tax talk, you know, if one isn't careful, it can quickly feel like an abstraction which can make it hard to understand. We are get rich education. I'm here to help you understand things. So what I'd like to do to help aid in your comprehension is jump in and use concrete examples during our interview here. And then after the interview, I'm also going to review what you learned. Hey, today's guest is making his debut. He's a tax reduction professional. He caters real estate investors and small businesses. In fact, he is pretty well known as the tax reduction lawyer. Hey, welcome on to John Hiatt. Thanks for having me.

 

Speaker 3 (00:07:57) - Glad to be here from Argentina.

 

Speaker 1 (00:08:00) - Yeah, you're joining me from a most interesting place today, a place with high inflation and tasty steaks and a lot of other things going on in Argentina today. But back here in the United States, where so much of our listenership is, I want to get into the real estate part and how real estate investors can lower their tax burden shortly.

 

Speaker 1 (00:08:19) - But first of all, just in general, John, every one of us that has an income pays an income tax. Now, Obama had the highest marginal income tax rate of 39.6% under the Trump administration. That was soon lowered from 39.6 down to 37 when the Biden administration came into power. A lot of people felt like that 37% rate was going to be raised back up to 39.6, but it was not, and it's still at 37%. So with that context, can you talk to us more about the direction of the marginal income tax rate?

 

Speaker 3 (00:08:55) - Gridlock, glorious, wonderful gridlock, when those people in DC are unable to, quote unquote do anything mean? I'm happy in one sense. I get a lot of opportunities to make content when the law changes. But in terms of the good of the country, when very little is changing in DC, yeah, usually I'm a happy camper and right now with the gridlock and they're not agreeing on things, I would say the most that's likely to happen, I don't think marginal tax rates will change.

 

Speaker 3 (00:09:22) - There is some negotiation on some of the Trump tax changes, which were almost all very positive, are fading out. For example, bonus depreciation is dropping by 20% per year. Right? So the Republicans are trying to keep it at 100%. The Democrats want more spending. That's the polite term. Let's leave it at spending. And so there is some discussion going. We'll see if they can agree or not. But I don't see any massive changes coming given the gridlock.

 

Speaker 1 (00:09:51) - Now as real estate investors and we think about the income tax, one often wonders, even when someone's been a real estate investor for a little while, John, I don't quite think they understand how the rent income is taxed differently than their daily job income. Can you tell us about that?

 

Speaker 3 (00:10:08) - Yeah, really important in two contexts. I'm going to give you the straight rentals on straight rentals. The rental income had schedule E instead of schedule C or some other schedule. So like W-2 income, the extent it's tax, there's no self-employment or Social Security.

 

Speaker 3 (00:10:25) - So that is a positive. Also, with things like depreciation, you have a lot greater opportunity to zero out the income or even convert it into losses. Now, if you manage to convert it into losses, we have a separate struggle which is making those losses useful. In other words, they're not being passive losses which we can have a discussion on. Another up and coming area is short term rentals. I'll just call it Airbnbs generically, even though there are a lot of other systems, it's really important to understand there's opportunity here, but there also traps. Airbnbs can be taxed as rental income or hotel income. And which one do you want? Well, the lawyer answer, of course, is always it depends. Usually we want it taxed as rental income for self-employment purposes. In other words, your Airbnb normally belongs on schedule E, not schedule C, which is good because you avoid self-employment tax. Most CPAs don't understand that. Second, from a passive loss standpoint, in other words, converting these passive bad losses into good losses that might offset your W-2.

 

Speaker 3 (00:11:36) - You want the Airbnb treated from that standpoint as a hotel.

 

Speaker 1 (00:11:41) - And when John's using the word hotel, he's using his fingers to make little, quote, signs around the word hotel.

 

Speaker 3 (00:11:48) - Yes, because hotels are considered not rentals. It's an active trade or business. And the definition is different. So we have the code might take the same word and define it 15 different ways depending on which part of the code you're playing with here. That helps us real brief one your audience, A lot of them have a day job. A lot of them would have a hard time becoming real estate professionals, which would allow them to take passive losses on rentals. Right. Well, for those who happen to be in Airbnbs or even just temporarily want to get into Airbnbs to get a loss, here's a classic strategy for people who have a W-2 job or otherwise have too much work time outside of real estate. They cannot ever be a real estate professional. It's just not going to happen. And again, the impact of that means passive rental losses stay passive.

 

Speaker 3 (00:12:40) - They. On the return. They don't help you in the present. A way to wake up those losses and make them active is the first year you have a rental for passive loss purposes. Make it an Airbnb and be personally involved with it. So let's talk about that. How do you make it an Airbnb for passive loss purposes? There are a number of ways because I can talk for hours and you don't want that. The most common way to make something into an Airbnb for passive loss purposes is on average rented for seven days or less. If you rent it for seven days or less, it still goes on schedule. E No social security tax. But instead of rental passive loss rules, you deal with the normal ones. What does that mean If you spend 100 hours or more and by the way, you means you and your spouse, if you're filing married, filing jointly, your hours both count so you can split the burden. If your hands on renting the Airbnb, let's say you buy it late in the year so you don't have to run it all year and you spend 100 or more hours on it between the two of you and no other human spends more time than you, then it is considered active.

 

Speaker 3 (00:13:51) - People will want to rewind and listen to that because it's a great strategy for in the first year you own something going to be a rental, maybe buy it towards the end of the year, run it as an Airbnb for the end of the year. Not a big time commitment. 100 plus hours. Take the cost segregation study, write that all off and use it. It's actually will lower your W-2 income. It's useful. And then in year two, if you want to go back to it being a normal rent.

 

Speaker 1 (00:14:17) - So we're talking about accelerating your depreciation and therefore decreasing the amount of your taxable income with this strategy.

 

Speaker 3 (00:14:27) - Yep. So the cost segregation study where the basics of cost segregation, when you hear the term, first of all, you only use it if you can use the loss. But if the loss is going to be passive, don't add cost, it's going to cost you money and get you not. But if you can use the law, what is cost? Segregation? We depreciate more aggressively.

 

Speaker 3 (00:14:46) - A very brief description. Everything outdoors that God did not put there. Fences, sidewalks, decks, landscaping. It was put there by builders like the oak tree that the squirrel put there. We give God credit for that one. But if the builder actually planted a row of trees, they get the credit. All these things that God did not put outdoors can be depreciated very rapidly and get you a much larger write off. And then all personal property which we define as anything a tenant can steal without using power tools. So furniture, some of the carpeting, maybe some of the cupboards, window treatments, etcetera. That's a cost seg study that will draw your income. Usually it produces a loss. And then we have to ask, can you use the loss?

 

Speaker 1 (00:15:33) - We hit on a very specific and valuable strategy there for reducing you, the real estate investors, taxable income. But just pulling back to something more basic, you said something important in the beginning there when asked about how rental income is taxed differently than the bank.

 

Speaker 1 (00:15:50) - You did let us know that rental income is not subject to self-employment tax and Social Security tax. And I know it's difficult to do 1 to 1 because certainly it depends. But oh, if one is in the 24% tax bracket, so therefore they're $1 from their job, that really only resulted in them getting $0.76 if they get $1 from rental income, just roughly or perhaps give us a range as to how much after tax income they get from that dollar of rent income.

 

Speaker 3 (00:16:19) - Classic Lawyer Answer It depends. Here's a rough rule of thumb. So self-employment and Social Security tax are pretty much the same thing.

 

Speaker 1 (00:16:26) - And how much percentage are they alone?

 

Speaker 3 (00:16:28) - So here's how the bracket work. That's the reverse of the normal bracket. It gets lower. The more you make. Roughly speaking, I'm just rounding here. If you have 150 gram of Social Security or self-employment taxable income, for example, your W-2, this is per person, not per couple. If you have 150 up to 150, your Social Security tax bracket is roughly 15%.

 

Speaker 3 (00:16:52) - Then it drops after that 150 grand to right around 3 to 5%, depending on factors you don't want to know. So it depends on your total income. For example, if you have a $200,000 W-2 and you run out and have a side business that generates self-employment tax, your self-employment tax is probably only 3 to 5%. So it depends on how much you're making that is self-employment taxable.

 

Speaker 1 (00:17:18) - Right. So we're talking about how you will have a chance to keep more of your $1 of rent income than you would from your $1 of day job income. And that's interesting with the Social Security tax, I actually didn't realize that, therefore, Social Security tax is a regressive tax policy. With increasing income, you pay a lower tax rate where generally overall in the United States, we would have with the income tax what's called a progressive tax policy, where you pay a higher tax rate with increasing income.

 

Speaker 3 (00:17:47) - Correct. And here's the theory to make it pass politically. Back when they did this in the 30s, they had to sell it as it's insurance and we're going to cap out your insurance, but we're also going to cap out your benefits.

 

Speaker 3 (00:17:59) - And so if you look in that regard, it's not really regressive because your benefits are also capped out. Now, what's one of the proposals? Let's make it flat so that people who make more subsidizing, those who make less, making it functionally progressive because you don't get any more benefits past a certain level.

 

Speaker 1 (00:18:17) - You're listening to get raises occasionally. We're talking with the tax reduction lawyer, John. Here we come back, we're going to talk about some more of those real estate tax advantages and get into the nuances of some things that people don't understand that well, like tax depreciation and the 1031 exchange. More with John. I'm your host, Keith Reinhold. Jerry listeners can't stop talking about their service from Ridge Lending Group and MLS 42056. They have provided our tribe with more loans than anyone there truly a top lender for beginners and veterans. It's where I go to get my own loans for single family rental property up to four Plex's. So start your pre-qualification and you can chat with President Charlie Ridge personally, though, even deliver your custom plan for growing your real estate portfolio.

 

Speaker 1 (00:19:04) - Start at Ridge Lending Group. You know, I'll just tell you for the most passive part of my real estate investing personally, I put my own dollars with Freedom family Investments because their funds pay me a stream of regular cash flow in. Returns are better than a bank savings account up to 12%. Their minimums are as low as 25. K. You don't even need to be accredited. For some of them, it's all backed by real estate and I kind of love how the tax benefit of doing this can offset capital gains in your W-2, jobs, income. And they've always given me exactly their stated return paid on time. So it's steady income, no surprises while I'm sleeping or just doing the things I love. For a little insider tip, I've invested in their power fund to get going on that text family to 668660. And this isn't a solicitation If you want to invest where I do, just go ahead and text family to 66866.

 

Speaker 4 (00:20:15) - This is author Kristen Tait. Listen to Get Rich Education with Keith Reinhold and don't Quit Your Day dream.

 

Speaker 1 (00:20:32) - Welcome back to Get Rich. Okay. So we're talking with John here. The tax reduction lawyer is how he's known. You can learn more about him at tax reduction, lawyer John's real estate investors. We get some of the very best tax breaks anywhere. In fact, they're so generous that I consider it to be a profit source. And I don't know that you can really say that about taxes in all contexts. I talk about how real estate actually pays you five way simultaneously appreciation cash flow, loan pay down made by the tenant. Fourthly, is that generous basket of tax benefits that we'll discuss. And then fifthly, is the inflation profiting benefit that you get on the long term fixed interest rate debt? But coming back to the fourth one, the tax advantages, really the two big ones that I predominantly think of, the quickly come to mind for a lot of us are tax depreciation, which is a deduction that reduces the investor's taxable income and the 1031 exchange, meaning that we can defer all of our capital gains tax all of our lives, which is incredible.

 

Speaker 1 (00:21:34) - But do you want to touch on the tax depreciation portion first, John, and tell us why that's so integral and valuable to real estate investors? Sure. When you buy stock.

 

Speaker 3 (00:21:43) - For example, on the market, it does not produce any paper deductions. Basically, you get the stock, whatever you paid for, it is your tax cost, your basis, and when you sell it, you just look, what did I sell it for, minus the tax cost. That's my gain. There are no benefits in the intervening time. You just sit and hold it. Nothing really happens. Real estate is different and that you get a paper deduction. Why Congress said so. You get something called depreciation and it's formulaic. You take the cost that you have in the property, what you have invested, and you multiply it by some number. Now that's where the cost segregation gets interesting because we debate which number. But for the moment, let's just pick a number. The most typical one is 3.6%. Multiply the building by 0.036 of what you have invested in it.

 

Speaker 3 (00:22:33) - And annually that's a deduction you get because and so that goes a long way when you add it to other expenses to reducing your income to zero. So the so if you have the income tax rate is much lower.

 

Speaker 1 (00:22:45) - So if you have a $1 million building, we're not talking about the value of the land with the building, just a $1 million building. Therefore you'd have about $36,000 each year that you do not get taxed on. That $36,000 is deducted from your rent income.

 

Speaker 3 (00:23:03) - Exactly. Try that with stock or mean you can. So that was a hypothetical non suggestion. Yeah, but that's one of the big benefits of depreciation. Now what's the downside? Because there's always strings attached. It drops your tax calls. So if I bought for a million, I took 36,000. Now my tax cost is 964,000. And so when I sell, if I sell will get into that, I have a larger gain. So there's a trade off. Now, in fairness, one of the other benefits of rental real estate is if you do sell for cash and you choose to pay taxes, we're going to talk about an alternative.

 

Speaker 3 (00:23:39) - If you choose to pay taxes, the tax rate on selling real estate are almost always 98% of the time lower than your normal tax bracket. So even if you sell after getting this depreciation benefit, the bracket is almost always considerably lower than your normal income, which is nice.

 

Speaker 1 (00:23:59) - I don't want this point to be lost on people. With that example I give of the $1 million building that you buy and the fact that say you get $100,000 of rent income from that, you'd only be taxed on $64,000 worth because you're able to deduct 3.6% of the value of the million dollar building against your rent income. And that $36,000 deduction typically with a lot of other investments, in order to get that deduction, you would have to make a $36,000 expense, like, for example, buying a new heating system for the building. But no, you don't have to buy a new $36,000 heating system for the building where you might qualify for that deduction. It's just the magic of appreciation. You can just take this $36,000 deduction out of thin air because the tax code says that you can.

 

Speaker 3 (00:24:47) - Yep, it's pretty much automatic. In fact, the code says you have to take it.

 

Speaker 1 (00:24:51) - That's right. I have learned that the tax code actually says you must take this benefit. And who wouldn't want to do that? Would there be any situation in which someone would not want to do that job?

 

Speaker 3 (00:25:02) - Yes. If they're going to sell later on or if they're going to sell in the comparatively near future, let's say they're going to buy and hold rent for three years and they're going to sell after three years taking the depreciation if it did not help them, let's say, created a passive loss, raises their bracket a little bit when they sell in three years. Now it's still lower than your normal bracket. It's just not as. Much lower as you would like. So yeah, there are a few spots where people resisting depreciation. It's pretty rare, but it happens.

 

Speaker 1 (00:25:32) - So you must take that depreciation, which is going to be a benefit to most investors in most cases down the road when it comes time to sell this million dollar building, oh, say ten years later, you wanted to sell this million dollar building for $2 million.

 

Speaker 1 (00:25:47) - Oh, I'm certainly oversimplifying here, but say that gave you $1 million gain because you bought it for 1 million and you're selling it for $2 million down the road. We have something known as the 1031 exchange. It's called the light kind exchange. It's also known as a tax deferred exchange. Tell us more about the 1031 exchange when it comes to selling this example, building ten years down the road for $1 million more than what you bought it for.

 

Speaker 3 (00:26:13) - You want to avoid paying tax. Here's the basics and then we'll get into a little bit of the process. The basics are you're swapping one house for another, but you don't have to direct swap. It's not barter. You don't have to go find someone who wants your house and you happen to want their house. That's just not practical. Rather, you sell your house, the money goes into the hands. This is really important of what's called a qualified intermediary. There are tons of them and that's pretty much a commodity at this point. So they're not that expensive.

 

Speaker 3 (00:26:39) - The money has to go in their hands. If you touch the money with your hands, it becomes dirty money and it's taxable, which sells. It goes straight from closing to the qualified intermediary. And you have certain deadlines, 45 days to find properties that you want and 180 days total from the sale date close, which kind of can help you time, especially if you have a cooperative buyer helps you. You need a time. For example, maybe I want to find the property I want sooner and then get out and sell the one I've got and you can do it in reverse order. You can go buy a property and then sell something afterwards and say to the government, Listen, I want the funds from this later sale to apply to this prior purchase. A reverse reverse fixture. Yeah, reverse exchange. And there are some creative games we can play with reverse exchanges. They're looser rule wise than the normal ones. I enjoy those 1031 exchange.

 

Speaker 1 (00:27:36) - Such a benefit where you can defer your capital gains tax.

 

Speaker 1 (00:27:40) - Hey, in this example you had $1 million then that would be subject to the capital gains tax, which is going to be a rate of 15% or more. And if you don't do a 1031 exchange, you have to pay back to the government all at once that tax depreciation that we discussed earlier. So there are actually consequences. It's going to feel like there are consequences to not doing a 1031 exchange. So you kind of get your money trapped in this real estate game. It might be the best place to have it, but that's something that I think investors need to understand for the long term.

 

Speaker 3 (00:28:12) - And it's the classic strategy. 1031 Until you die. Now, what typically occurs with investors and then life cycle, they want a little more time, so they start 1030, letting in some more passive type investments, whether it's with a management company or a property that by its nature tends to be a little bit more passive, but the object is to die and not sell. I'm not suggesting everyone go out and die right away.

 

Speaker 3 (00:28:37) - That's great tax planning. But in terms of reality, it's not so great. But if you. 1031 let's give an example. You bought for a million, many years later it's worth 10 million. Your basis in the property is 100,000. You've depreciated it. So if you sell, there's a huge gain, you die. Whoever inherits is going to love you. At least we hope they will, because when they inherit the property that's worth 10 million, their tax cost, their basis at law is 10 million. They can sell the next day with no gain. That's the infamous step up in basis. And the object is to convert the deferral into tax free. If you defer long enough, it becomes tax free. That's the goal.

 

Speaker 1 (00:29:18) - And John touched on it. There is no limit to the number of times that you can do the 1031 tax deferred exchange. As a real estate investor, you can trade up from a $1 million property to a $2 million property. Ten more years go by to a $4 million property.

 

Speaker 1 (00:29:33) - Ten more years go by to an $8 million property. Now I'm certainly oversimplifying this, but at each step you don't owe any capital gains tax. So because you can defer it endlessly, you really never have to pay it and effectively becomes tax free with that step up and basis to your heirs like John just described. John, I'd like to know your thoughts. You know, it seems a few different presidents lately. I know Biden, at least he threatened to do away with the 1031 exchange. I just wonder if the 1031 exchange is ever going to get precarious. I think some people, though, don't understand that the 1031 tax deferred exchange has been around for more than a hundred years.

 

Speaker 3 (00:30:12) - They've been talking about getting rid of the 1031 since the 1930, and Democratic administrations have threatened to do it since the 1930. They've never had the supermajority they need to actually get away with it. And even then they've come close to it. And even then, some of the lobbyists on the Democratic side said, listen, this is not a good idea, freezes up capital.

 

Speaker 3 (00:30:36) - We want people to be able to buy and sell and not be frozen into a property because of tax reasons. So, look, could it happen? Sure. We live in a crazy world, but the probability of the 1031 going away I think is pretty darn low. Let me give one real quick trick that's going to help. Some people won't help very many, but the ones that helps it help big time for you. 1031 A property. Ask your accountant. Do I have any passive losses tied up in the property? They're going to know there's going to be a form on your larger tax return. There are different versions of your return. The big thick one is not. The one that goes to the government. Ask them how much passive activity loss you have in the building. Whatever that is in a 1031. Take out the cash. It's tax free and in fact, it's tax arbitrage. To give you an example. We are selling a property. You had a million and you're selling for 2 million.

 

Speaker 3 (00:31:29) - Let's say you had 100,000 of passive losses tied up in it. Go ahead and take out 100,000 cash from the exchange. Go ahead, ask double check with the 1031 intermediary because they know the rules. But go ahead and take out the 100,000. What happens? You get the 100,000 tax free because your passive losses that were hibernating on the return are now activated and wipe out. Normally when you pull cash out of a 1031, there's gains. Normally we don't do that. But here the losses are activated. They not only offset the 100 you pulled out, they drop your tax bracket because you're getting a capital gains tax bracket offset by a normal loss that was now brought out of hibernation. So just a little trick for those of you always before 1031, always ask your CPA, what's my passive activity loss? And think about taking out exactly that amount of cash, tax rate, tax arbitrage.

 

Speaker 1 (00:32:28) - I just learned something as well. I've got a number of 1031 exchanges in my life and that's one tip that I sure didn't know about.

 

Speaker 1 (00:32:35) - So thanks for that. And if you, the listener, if you want to learn the nuances of the 1031 exchange, which John and I aren't going to do here, because that really goes a mile deep with the three properties rule and the 200% rule and all of that. You can listen to episode 143 where that entire episode is dedicated to the 1031 tax deferred exchange and just how you can best pull it off for maximum tax efficiency so that you can then go ahead and re leverage those dollars into a larger property later. Well, John, that was very helpful on both tax depreciation and the 1031 exchange. Do you have any last things to share with us? Any last strategies so that a real estate investor can pay less in tax or anything that's particularly helpful?

 

Speaker 3 (00:33:21) - Yes. There's this concept of the Trump tax law called the pass through deduction or qualified business income tax code, Section 199 Capital A First of all, it applies to all rentals. Unless they're triple net least. A lot of accountants still don't get that.

 

Speaker 3 (00:33:38) - You have to have a trade or business that's tax term trade or business rentals that are not triple net leased are a trade or business, which is a good thing under the code. So there's this deduction. It's large. If you're showing that income even after depreciation and everything you buy is typically 20% of the net income. So if I'm showing 100 grand of net income, I get a $20,000 deduction because Congress said so. Protect that. In particular, if you make roughly I'm rounding here 164 grand total taxable income on your 1040 single and roughly 370 filing joint, there are special things you need to do to maximize the QBI and you need to do it before the end of the year. Nothing pains me more than to see high income people who benefit the most from this deduction because of their high bracket and they're in these high brackets. And if they would have done a little bit of talking to their CPA, hey, I think I'm going to make married filing jointly 370 or more for the year. It's going to cut my QBI based on the mechanical rules.

 

Speaker 3 (00:34:41) - What can I do to preserve my qualified business? Income tax deduction might pass their tax deduction. To do that, you need a really good set of books and returns. You have to have good books in the knowledge of your income so your accountant can look and say, Hey, here's how much we think you're going to make. B Here's what we can do to preserve this deduction. That is the number one easy pick up by C in tax returns. I review for planning purposes that people missed in prior years and we tell them going forward, please, please towards the end of the year, start thinking about if you're going to show gain. Doesn't matter if you're showing a loss, but if you're going to show gain in any business, not just rentals, please look at the deduction. Please make sure you're getting the full 20%.

 

Speaker 1 (00:35:25) - John is an expert at looking at your recent tax returns and pointing it to one area and saying, hey, there's a quick ROI for you if we change this. And right over there is another quick ROI for you if we change this.

 

Speaker 1 (00:35:37) - Well, John, that's been great with what we can do with the existing tax code to help optimize our situation. But wrapping up here, a lot of people are interested in what's coming down the road in the future. It can be a little bit speculative, but it also can be a proxy for how people and politicians are thinking. And that's. Is there anything that the presidential candidates are offering tax wise? It's very interesting whether that be an RFK Jr or a Ron DeSantis or a Vivek Ramaswamy or Nikki Haley or anyone else with this potential future direction of where an influential candidate wants to take taxes.

 

Speaker 3 (00:36:15) - I think the parties are pretty consistent regardless of candidate. Now they each have their subgenre of flavor, right? Do you like your chocolate? Dark or milk chocolate or with or without salt, but it's still milk chocolate. So likewise, the Democratic presidential candidates are going to be looking to increase taxes, get rid of what they view as loopholes, and they are aware of real estate having a lot of special benefits and they don't care for it.

 

Speaker 3 (00:36:41) - The Republicans, by contrast, are going to be more for lowering taxes. They are not hostile to real estate. They're generally pro-business, especially pro small business. And I think that's consistent across the board. I don't think there's a lot of deviation there with either party. The specific proposals will vary. For example, the Kennedy candidate strikes me as less hardcore left wing and a little more common sensical than maybe some of the more progressive sorts and might not be as harsh in that regard.

 

Speaker 1 (00:37:13) - Well, that's helpful in knowing what future policy might be and that might affect the way that you want to vote. This has been really helpful, particularly to real estate investors and small business owners. You are the tax reduction lawyer, so if our audience wants to connect with you and learn more about what you can do for them, what's the best way for them to do that?

 

Speaker 3 (00:37:33) - Not coincidentally, tax reduction lawyer.com and I put out a ton of content. I take a few clients but it's really getting more and more content based.

 

Speaker 3 (00:37:43) - So if you like what you heard, you might hear more.

 

Speaker 1 (00:37:47) - Sometimes in the video, hear you and the audio only might not be able to see that. For example, when John was using the word loopholes, he was using his fingers as air quotes. He understands that these are intentional incentives that help direct behavior because the government knows that society is generally better off when the private sector and the mom and pop investor are the ones providing good housing for society. A lot of public housing projects really haven't fared so well. So that's what John is here to help you do provide clean, safe, affordable, functional housing for others and get all the tax benefits that come along with that. Hey, John. Hi. It's been great having you here on the show.

 

Speaker 3 (00:38:26) - It has been an absolute pleasure. Thanks for having me.

 

Speaker 1 (00:38:35) - Oh, yeah. Nice clear breakdowns from the tax reduction lawyer John Heyer. I was talking with John Moore outside of our show. He read the entire some 1000 page long inflation reduction act that was passed last year.

 

Speaker 1 (00:38:51) - He did that to try to help understand its tax implications for his clients and was kind of impressed that he had the endurance, I suppose, to read all of it. And I asked him how many members of Congress he thinks read it and we both answer the question at the same time. Zero To achieve one looks like the top 1%. You must act like the top 1% does. And that might include tapping the expertise of a pro like John to review what you've learned today with our expert guest John. No changes to federal income tax rates are expected. There are ways to lighten the tax burden on your short term rentals, which you might not be aware of. Your dollar of day job income that's taxed at a higher rate than your dollar of rent income. Because on your day job income, you must pay Social Security and self-employment tax. You don't pay those tax types on your rent income. Real estate tax depreciation is kind of like magic. It means that you can write off a portion of your rent income each year, meaning that you can make it non-taxable even if you don't have a real expense associated with doing that.

 

Speaker 1 (00:40:03) - You learn more about the 1031 tax deferred exchange and the fact that it will persist as a benefit for real estate investors is highly likely. Again, if you like what you learn each week on the Gerry podcast, I invite you to subscribe or follow within your favorite podcasting device. For those non podcast listener friends you might have, they can try the Get Rich Education mobile app. Everything that we do is free until next week. We'll all be back to help you build your wealth. I'm your host, Keith Wild. Don't quit your day dream.

 

Speaker 5 (00:40:36) - Nothing on this show should be considered specific, personal or professional advice. Please consult an appropriate tax, legal, real estate, financial or business professional for individualized advice. Opinions of guests are their own information is not guaranteed. All investment strategies have the potential for profit or loss. The host is operating on behalf of Get Rich Education LLC exclusively.

 

Speaker 1 (00:41:04) - The preceding program was brought to you by your home for wealth building Get rich education.com.



Direct download: GREepisode469_.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 4:00am EDT

With skyrocketing property insurance costs, more homeowners are skipping insurance altogether. That proportion is estimated at 12% per the WSJ.

Single-family rents are up 6.5% annually.

Next, we discuss what might be America’s best cash flowing real estate market.

Home prices are up this year for four main reasons: large Millennial demand, scarce supply, mostly healthy economy, interest rate levels that are actually normal.

As we discuss one of America’s best cash flowing markets, it’s in a state that has strong legal protections for landlords.

The cost of living there is 17% below the national average. Unemployment is 2%, according to the provider.

Single-family rents are $1,200 to $1,500; prices are $115,000 to $140,000. 

You can own a freshly renovated property, complete with granite countertops. Average tenant duration is 3-4 years.

With higher interest rates, more buyers in this market are paying all-cash or making a larger down payment.

Contact your GRE Investment Coach, a free service, if you consider purchasing property in this investor-advantaged market.

Timestamps:

National home prices and insurance costs [00:00:01]

Discussion on the increase in national home prices and the impact of rising insurance costs on homeowners.

Rise in single-family rent growth [00:04:04]

Exploration of the increase in single-family rent growth and its implications for the rental housing market.

America's best cash flow real estate market [00:07:54]

Introduction to an area with low property prices and potential for cash flow, including its job growth and investor advantages.

The lost luggage incident [00:11:27]

Keith shares his memory of his luggage arriving late during a trip to Little Rock and going for a run in street shoes.

Little Rock's recognition as a top place for young professionals [00:13:15]

Forbes Advisor ranks Little Rock, North Little Rock, and Conway as top ten places for young professionals to live, highlighting employment opportunities and affordability.

Growth and economic drivers in central Arkansas [00:15:20]

Discussion on population growth, job creation, and economic drivers in central Arkansas, including the presence of distribution hubs, major retailers, tech companies, and government and medical sectors.

The demand for single family rentals [00:20:40]

The speaker discusses the shift in multifamily housing, the increase in demand for single family rentals, and the lack of new construction in this sector.

Arkansas as a landlord-friendly state [00:21:42]

The speaker explains that Arkansas has landlord-friendly laws and a simple eviction process, with evictions typically taking 30 days or less and costing less than $1000.

Criteria for properties in the investor market [00:24:59]

The speaker talks about the areas and property types that fit their buy box, focusing on working-class tenants and B-class properties in the Little Rock metro area.

The availability of properties in Little Rock [00:30:51]

The speaker discusses the current tight inventory in the Little Rock market and how it affects both homeowners and tenants. Demand is high, but there are fewer places to rent or buy.

Interest rates and cash buyers [00:31:52]

The speaker talks about the impact of higher interest rates on investors and the increase in cash buyers. Some investors are willing to pay all cash now with the intention of refinancing later when interest rates come down.

Advantages of investing in Little Rock [00:33:48]

Resources mentioned:

Show Notes:

www.GetRichEducation.com/468

Get access to Little Rock properties:

GREmarketplace.com/LittleRock

If you’d like help with one of 

GRE’s Investment Coaches (free), start here:

GREmarketplace.com/Coach

Get mortgage loans for investment property:

RidgeLendingGroup.com or call 855-74-RIDGE 

or e-mail: info@RidgeLendingGroup.com

Invest with Freedom Family Investments. You get paid first: Text ‘FAMILY’ to 66866

Will you please leave a review for the show? I’d be grateful. Search “how to leave an Apple Podcasts review” 

Top Properties & Providers:

GREmarketplace.com

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GREmarketplace.com/Coach

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GetRichEducation.com

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Our YouTube Channel:

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Follow us on Instagram:

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Complete episode transcript:

 

Speaker 1 (00:00:01) - Welcome to. I'm your host, Keith Weinhold. National home prices continue to increase for at least four big reasons. There's also a hindrance that's getting so bad that it could keep more price growth in check. We look at why single-family rent growth is increasing. Then we focus on one particular metro area that could be America's best cash flow real estate market and why today on Get Rich education.

 

Speaker 2 (00:00:30) - You're listening to the show that has created more financial freedom than nearly any show in the world. This is Get rich education.

 

Speaker 1 (00:00:53) - Walking from Whitney Island to Mt. Whitney, California, and across 188 nations worldwide. I'm your host, Keith Weinhold. And this is Get Rich. Education, National home prices continue to increase and no one knows what mortgage rates are going to do. There's one factor that could slow the home price growth party down. It could be impeded a little by these rising insurance costs. Now, in years past, do you know how many American homeowners decided that they were just going to skip insurance and not buy it so that they don't have to pay the premium? Any idea what percent? Well, the longer term norm is that 5 to 8% of homeowners skipped insurance.

 

Speaker 1 (00:01:38) - They just said we'll handle any risk and not buy it. Hm. Maybe that's sort of like not using a case for your phone, perhaps, which I don't actually. I never use a case for my phone, but I do have insurance on all of my properties. Well, The Wall Street Journal was just reporting that the number of homeowners that have decided to forego insurance has increased. Okay. The longer term historic number is 5 to 8%. That decided to skip insurance. And now amidst insurance premiums that in a lot of places have risen faster than inflation, that proportion of those that skip homeowners insurance is now from 5 to 8%, up to 12%. Yeah, 12% of homeowners electing to skip insurance. And they're going to be those people that are free and clear of a mortgage. And if you have a mortgage, you must have property insurance. The Wall Street Journal also found that it's mostly lower income people that forgo it, lower income people that skip the insurance. Now, of course, homeowner borrowers, you have to eat that premium increase if you're a homeowner, borrower, they have to eat that.

 

Speaker 1 (00:02:53) - You're going to remember that just seven episodes ago on Episode 461, I went into a lot of detail on the areas of the nation that do have skyrocketing insurance premiums. And if you're a landlord in any of those markets, you can pass along the hot potato because you can raise your rents in order to offset that. But primary residence homeowners, they cannot do that. They cannot pass along the hot potato. Homeowners have to eat the hot potato. And sometimes that hot potato can burn the roof of your mouth. That's why the proportion of those that skip insurance has about doubled. And also some areas have become uninsurable. If you want a new policy, think of some of the forest fire prone areas out west and you know, the eastern half of the nation, they can get forest fires, too, of course, But east of the Mississippi, it stays more humid and you get more rain. That's why it's just not as much of a problem in the eastern half of the US. Well, you've taken my guidance to heart and you sure are passing along the insurance hot potato, raising the rent on your tenants.

 

Speaker 1 (00:04:04) - Here's some evidence because John Burns, real estate and consulting shows us that in the latest stats, single family rents are up 6.5% year over year. Yeah, single family rentals are also seeing higher occupancy and lower vacancy, and that's 6.5% annual growth rate in single family. So that's worth watching if you forecast inflation because of course that does make up part of the CPI like Rick and I recently discussed. Now single family rentals. They are roughly one quarter of America's rental housing stock. And this differs, by the way, from the rent growth on larger apartment buildings. Apartment building rent growth is slow due to so much new construction of larger apartment buildings where they're just still not building enough single family rentals in so many markets. So with this low, really just awful affordability for wannabe homeowners, what's happening in this area is that single families, they're attracting quality tenants. As this affordability worsens, the quality of the single family tenant is therefore increasing. The Fred charts tell us that the median sales price of the new build home is now $437,000 for 37.

 

Speaker 1 (00:05:31) - Note that that's for a new build, not existing. And home prices are up, up, up for four big reasons. It's really for major reasons that home prices are up. There is high home demand from the large millennial generation, this astoundingly scarce supply. Thirdly, there is a still pretty strong economy and. And then fourthly, believe it or not, if you're new to real estate, fourthly is, yes, historically normal mortgage interest rate levels. All these things are supporting these higher and higher prices and this scarce housing supply. That is a genuine American problem that we have here. Now, President Biden, he's tried to address it with a five year plan that he announced last year. And in just two days, Republican presidential candidates are going to take the stage in California for the second GOP primary debate. And the presidential candidates, they should be asked, what would you do about the housing shortage? That question was not asked in the first presidential debate. If I could ask them one question, yeah, it would be about housing and our next president matters whether Biden wins reelection or whether it's someone else.

 

Speaker 1 (00:06:44) - But my gosh, America spends too much time wrapped up in all this debate posturing and all this media hype over the positioning of the candidates. I mean, this is already been going on for months and months. Trump, Haley Pence, Ramaswamy DeSantis. Yes, the primaries are sooner, but the presidential election is still more than a full year into the future, even from this point. And this has already been going on for this long. I mean, virtually no other nation in the world drags it out for this long. It's almost a two year cycle of vetting these presidential candidates with two years. That's half of a presidential term right there. My goodness. Next week, as I'll be leaning on my team for a makeshift studio, I'll be joining you from Chicago, Illinois. And I will be checking out the sites and also the real estate opportunities there and those still in Chicago land. It's typically on the Indiana side of the Illinois Indiana line, where you'll tend to find the better real estate deals and the lower taxes is back to this week's show.

 

Speaker 1 (00:07:54) - We're not talking about Chicago today. Straight ahead, is this America's best cash flow real estate market? It's an area that has population and job growth, but it's slow growth. You'll be surprised with how low the property prices are. I mean, they're often below replacement cost, which is remarkable. But what that means is with today's high materials and labor and regulatory costs, it would pay more to build a new home on that site than what you can buy that completed existing for home today that was built decades ago. And I've walked these very neighborhoods. A lot of them are nice. They're not in war zone areas. The city has a great base of distribution jobs. It says sector where it's hard to outsource distribution jobs over to a less developed nations because those jobs need to be fixed right there where you need to move the goods. So in this city, they are building fulfillment centers. That's warehousing in this highly investor advantaged place is also a state capital. So they have another base of government jobs that are not going away.

 

Speaker 1 (00:08:58) - I'm talking to an experienced principal in this market that offers freshly renovated property to out of market investors like you. That's next. I'm Keith Windell you're listening to Get Rich Education. Jerry listeners can't stop talking about their service from Ridge Lending Group and MLS 42056. They have provided our tribe with more loans than anyone there truly a top lender for beginners and veterans. It's where I go to get my own loans for single family rental property up to four plex. So start your pre-qualification and you can chat with President Charlie Ridge personally, though even deliver your custom plan for growing your real estate portfolio. Start at Ridge Lending Group. You know, I'll just tell you, for the most passive part of my real estate investing personally, I put my own dollars with Freedom family Investments because their funds pay me a stream of regular cash flow in. Returns are better than a bank savings account up to 12%. Their minimums are as low as 25 K. You don't even need to be accredited. For some of them. It's all backed by real estate.

 

Speaker 1 (00:10:10) - And I kind of love how the tax benefit of doing this can offset capital gains in your W-2, jobs, income. And they've always given me exactly their stated return paid on time. So it's steady income, no surprises while I'm sleeping or just doing the things I love. For a little insider tip, I've invested in their power fund to get going on that text family to 668660. And this isn't a solicitation If you want to invest where I do, just go ahead and text family to 66866. This is Perrin Life's Patrick Donahoe. Listen to Get Rich Education with Keith Wayne Mold. And don't quit your day dream. Hey, well, I'd like to welcome in one of our marketplace providers in such in Investor advantage geography, that is in Little Rock, Arkansas. Brian, we're going to be listening to one of the voices of Marketplace today. Hey, thanks so much for being here. Hey, thank you, Keith. Appreciate being here for the second time. This is great. Great catching up with you.

 

Speaker 1 (00:11:27) - Well, that's right. Now, it's been a few years since you and I got together in person in Little Rock, Arkansas, and we toured the market. If we walked the number of properties. But I think the thing that stands out most to me with that trip to Little Rock, where I spent the day with you, is that my baggage arrived late. Now, we had good accommodations at the Capitol Hotel, kind of the stately nice hotel right in the center of downtown. But my luggage to Little Rock arrived about 20 hours late. I've had really good luck with luggage all my life, but didn't this time. And my most enduring memory maybe, is that I had to go running in street shoes. And I still remember near the end of my run, I was running over the bridge that spans the Arkansas River between North Little Rock and Little Rock. Looking down while I was running at these slightly dressy black shoes on my feet, thinking, My gosh, it's a miracle that my feet don't hurt me.

 

Speaker 1 (00:12:24) - Yeah, that's exactly what I remember, Keith. I remember piecing it together. So you didn't come right out and just tell me you'd mention your bag had been lost. And then you mentioned that you went for a run that morning and thought, What did you run? So, yeah, you described basically running in your loafers from the day before. So I was like, This guy's a real machine from the north, the Great North down here. So I was impressed. Yes. And you're probably also wondering, did you really have to go running it? Right? That's the other thing. Well, right. Hey, you and I were just discussing this great media clip that we watched there from the local news there in Little Rock. This tells us quite a bit about the economic drivers in Little Rock as well as the low median home price there in the Little Rock area. Let's listen to this together. This is about two minutes in length and then we'll come back to comment.

 

Speaker 3 (00:13:15) - We turn now to the national recognition that three communities in central Arkansas are receiving.

 

Speaker 3 (00:13:20) - Little Rock North, Little Rock and Conway ranked in the top ten places for young professionals to live by for.

 

Speaker 1 (00:13:27) - Some great news channel. Seven's Brenda Lipinski is on your side tonight. She joins us now live in our studio. Brenda, tell us a little bit about these rankings.

 

Speaker 3 (00:13:34) - Yes, Chris. So Forbes advisor analyzed 99 of 100 largest cities and found that Little Rock North, Little Rock and Conway had great opportunities for young people. Little Rock North, Little Rock and Conway named Top ten Best Places for Young Professionals to Live by Forbes Advisor. And some agree. I think that there's no no doubt here in Arkansas, central Arkansas that we foster some of the greatest minds in talent. The criteria for the ranking included employment and pay, housing affordability, lifestyle and cost of living. North Little Rock Chamber of Commerce saying investment in young people is crucial for the area.

 

Speaker 1 (00:14:11) - They're the next leaders. So we need to make sure that we can continue to recruit them and develop them because they're going to be the next people on our board of directors are going to be the next city council members.

 

Speaker 3 (00:14:19) - Mayor Frank Scott Junior, who's a millennial, says good public education and jobs are a must.

 

Speaker 1 (00:14:25) - We've seen historic job growth for close to 10,000 new jobs.

 

Speaker 3 (00:14:28) - Young professionals saying there's a ton of reasons why they like the area, the community affordability.

 

Speaker 1 (00:14:34) - Every single time I connect with someone and I'm I'm able to find a new opportunity, whether it be inside of work and with my career or outside of work with just having fun.

 

Speaker 3 (00:14:44) - And for the future. So I'm hoping the state will create policy that will continue to attract more young people and think about the ways that we can continue to attract diverse professionals and how policy can impact people's image of the state and of the area specifically. Now, Forbes advisor also says that the areas are evolving into an entrepreneurial and innovation hub, which may also attract young professionals on your side. I'm Brenda Lipinski.

 

Speaker 1 (00:15:09) - Okay, Brenda, thanks so much. Forbes also likes the cost of living in central Arkansas, where the median home price is about $200,000. Right. So that's what the media is reporting.

 

Speaker 1 (00:15:20) - But you're right there, you're the boots on the ground. So tell us more about population growth and job creation and just overall the market vibe in the drivers there in central Arkansas. We have continued to see growth here. You know, I think it was mentioned that over 10,000 jobs created in just the last five years. One of the things that stands out here, too, is really driving that growth is that we're kind of known as a distribution hub or an upcoming distribution hub. A lot of that has to do with our geography and where we're located very centrally in the United States. And we're at the crossroads of two major interstates, I-40 and I-30. And so we've seen in just the last five years a very large Amazon facility put in actually three different fulfillment centers put in. So that's said to have brought in around 2000 jobs just right there. Then we've seen other big retailers come in like Lowe's and Ace Hardware and Dollar General, and they've all built distribution fulfillment centers here as well. And then even still we seeing growth with manufacturing moving into our river port here.

 

Speaker 1 (00:16:26) - It was just announced this year that a big Trex facility, they manufacture decking materials and from environmentally friendly sources and they're putting a major operation here. And they were drawn here for the location in proximity to the interstate. So those things really are driving us right now. A lot of our growth is accelerated by this sort of fulfillment warehousing distribution space. We have other drivers, too, and just the last few years, very diverse in the economy here. But we have a large tech company here called Apta. G. They were created right here in Little Rock and have really accelerated their growth. I believe they're said to get up to around 800 jobs. And those are all young professionals that could be working in Silicon Valley if they wanted to. Very diverse. We have aerospace here with Disso Falcon Jet, and then we have lots of government jobs here. We are the state capital. So we have all of our state government here. We're also a major medical center. So all of our medical professionals train here.

 

Speaker 1 (00:17:24) - Our medical school for the state is here in Little Rock. So all of our large hospitals there's on that note, things that we have coming now, they're announced they're building a new dental school here in Little Rock. So there's not a dental school in Arkansas currently. Also building a veterinarian school here in Little Rock. These are both going to be attached to another college that's here in Arkansas. So starting on a good foundation for those two schools. But that's another exciting move for Little Rock. So all these things are driving the workforce and bringing in younger workers, generating out workers from the medical school, for example, putting them out into the marketplace here. So we have a lot of young professionals, and I think that's why Forbes ranked us in the top ten of places for young professionals to live being the state capital there. Yes, you have that base of government jobs, some of the private sector jobs you mentioned you mentioned the expansion of medical. You know, these are two areas, government and medical that rarely contract very much, especially with the medical often growing and then with the government jobs, with the state capital being there in Little Rock, those just aren't the type of jobs that are going to be outsourced.

 

Speaker 1 (00:18:32) - And they're also not going to move the capital from little Rock to Pine Bluff, Arkansas, anytime soon either. So you do have that base there. And Brian, you and I were looking at different media articles recently and studying more statistics. No one area has it all. Little Rock has a lot of advantageous drivers, especially a high ratio of rent income to purchase price for investors. And we'll get into that later. But really with one of the statistics that we were consuming together, basically, if you think of it as gradients in an area's population growth and job growth, maybe let's think of five of them. There's high growth, there's slower growth, there's no change, there's slow decline or there's fast decline. And of those five, it seemed to be pointing to that second one, slow growth for the area. Yes, I mean, we're a very linear market here. Our growth is consistent. We haven't had a major increase or a major dip. We're just very consistent in linear in our growth.

 

Speaker 1 (00:19:32) - But it is continuous. We've seen that happen with even with housing, we've seen a lot of permits increase in the last few years, more multifamily permits even than single family permits. And it kind of tells you that the demand that's there for housing that rises along with the growth we are in that category, I would say, yeah, that's right. When we think about slow population growth, obviously those people need to be housed somewhere. And in the past decade you touched on it. To your point, both Little Rock and North Little Rock have had more multifamily built than they've had single family homes built. And nationally we are just so undersupplied depending on what numbers you look at. Were millions of housing units undersupplied nationally? How does that translate to the local picture there in central Arkansas, including Little Rock as far as being oversupplied, adequately supplied or undersupplied with housing? Well, I think we're undersupplied with single family housing first, and there's a real demand there. And there has been an increase in multifamily and most of that multifamily increase is at the top of the market.

 

Speaker 1 (00:20:40) - So there's been a real shift in multifamily. And what maybe used to be an A-class multifamily building is now A, B or a C because new A-class has been built to replace it. So we've seen some shift there. But where the majority of the housing stock is coming from is the multifamily sector and that puts more demand on the single family rentals. I mean, that is still a very desirable place. I think most anyone who lives in an apartment or has lived in apartment aspire to eventually have their own home or be within their own four walls in a yard that, you know, they belong to them or they control or rent or whatever else and have their own piece. So their demand stays there for single family rental, but there's not as much being built. So we've really seen an increase in our single family rental rates. I know there's been increases across the country in rental rates, but usually it's linear here. But you know, we've with not a great big jump, but we've really experienced a significant jump over the last few years.

 

Speaker 1 (00:21:42) - And I think a lot of it is driven with the demand for the single family and there's just only so much of it Now. We think about investors. Of course, most of the investors that you provide product for come from out of state. They live in areas that aren't nearly as investor advantaged as Littlerock is, but that's about more than the numbers. Oftentimes it's about that local landlord tenant law. I've got to say, it's been a while since I've consumed any material about this, but I remember in the past reading for years that oftentimes Arkansas comes in as one of the most landlord friendly states. That's correct. And it's been that way for a long time here. Our process is very simple and it's very much in favor of the landlord. But here an average eviction, if you get to that point of having to evict, typically it takes 30 days or less to actually get the tenant that's fast and less than $1,000 and that's hiring an attorney. So you're hiring an attorney? We have several that specialize here in the Little Rock area, for example.

 

Speaker 1 (00:22:45) - They can turn this thing around in about 30 days. And the process is it goes to an unlawful detainer if you filed for eviction and the tenant hasn't followed the eviction process and hasn't followed the proper notices and the proper days to get out, then the legally you can follow a unlawful detainer. And once that process gets moving and it moves pretty fast, a writ of possession is issued. And so at that point, the tenant is actually served by a police officer and they don't it's not a harsh dragging out with handcuffs, but they show up and generally escort them out of the place. It's pretty quick process overall and it's backed up by law enforcement. So but in no means is it a bullying or a brutal process or anything like that. And most residents here in Little Rock in Arkansas in general, that's the way it's been forever. They understand it. And usually when you serve an eviction notice, it means business. And most tenants know it means business and they just abide by it. So really, we don't have to enforce all that many evictions all the way through other than that, we serve, so we serve evictions and they generally just get out.

 

Speaker 1 (00:23:51) - That's sort of the process in Arkansas is known as to being one of the most landlord friendly states, and it's been that way for quite a long time. Of course, we're highly interested in that long history of the law reinforcing landlord interests more so than tenant interests, since we are interested in being long term investors. And when we talk about a metro area there in and around Little Rock, including their MSA, which includes North Little Rock and Conway, and we sometimes want to think about, all right, now, what parts of town would fit ones by box? Because even in an investor advantaged place, you probably don't want class A+, single family homes because of those higher price points. Rents don't keep up proportionally. And then we also typically want to avoid class areas. Those properties are shabby. They can't attract a rent paying tenant and properties don't typically appreciate very well on those low end class properties. So tell us about those areas in the criteria that fit your buy box that you know that investors want to put in their portfolio? Yeah, that's correct.

 

Speaker 1 (00:24:59) - I mean, we really stick a lot into the space. We're looking for kind of that working class tenant. They've got a good job. They are, you know, blue collar. They're hardworking people. Generally it's a family. Those are the areas where we're focused on and we're not exclusively in Little Rock. As you mentioned, the metro area is about a 55 mile radius. There's about a million people within that radius, the metro area. And that encompasses other areas around us other than Little Rock. So the city of Little Rock. There's the city of North Little Rock, which is actually not just the north side of Little Rock. It's a separate city from Little Rock and the other side of the Sherwood, Cabot, Jacksonville, Conway, Benton, Bryant. All of these are communities, cities around us enjoying Little Rock. We find rentals in those areas, too. We target specific areas within those different cities where really that B-class property in that B-class tenant is looking to live. And so we're not just in Little Rock.

 

Speaker 1 (00:25:56) - We do venture out into some of these other areas and we're talking about the Little Rock, Arkansas, and the investor market there and its growth story. However, a slow growth story, perhaps it's not growing as fast as some Floridian counties are, where you have a lot of foreign in-migration, you're going to have less foreign in-migration, for example, in Little Rock as compared to a lot of other places. We think about where the tenant income stream is going to come from. We've talked about that. All of those market drivers there, we start to think about, all right, what are the properties like in the prices in the rents? So can you tell us about the property types and then get into some of the important numbers for investors, Brian, And tell us about the quality of the renovation you do to get that property ready and make it effectively turnkey for investors. Tell us about the properties, the prices in the rents. We try to target mostly single family and we do come across and dabble in some multifamily as well, and it's mostly smaller multifamily.

 

Speaker 1 (00:26:58) - So you know, anywhere from a duplex up to maybe a 20 or 30 unit complex and fits within our box. But mostly we're focused on single family rentals. Our criteria is a three bedroom. Obviously it's going to have a bath, but three bedroom, two bath is what we like. We do come across a lot of three bedroom, one and a half baths. A lot of these homes were built in the 1960s, 1970s. Those homes are going to have some of the more modern things, sheetrock versus plaster wire versus knob and tube. So, you know, those are reasons why we want to focus on those 1960s, 1970s homes. Again, most of them are three bedroom, one into two baths. Most of them are around 1200 square feet. And we do a fairly extensive remodel. We have a lot of boxes to check. But I would say our average home ends up with a new roof, new Hvac, new hot water heater, almost all new flooring. We always put in granite countertops.

 

Speaker 1 (00:27:53) - It's a staple in Little Rock. We find that that just is a little bit of a wow factor compared to some other competitors out there and what they're offering as a result. So we pay attention to the finishes. We want all the hardware to match, we want all the light kits to match. We want everything to feel uniform. And our whole philosophy is we're trying to attract best quality tenants we can, but we want this to be it. Hope this is the best rental property they've ever had as well. We want them to really fall in love with the property and our number one goal is to retain tenants for as long as possible because one of our biggest killers is turnover cost. So, you know, if you lose a tenant, you've got to get that thing rent ready and put it back out on the market. And you've got to go through the whole process of finding a new tenant. So what we find is by providing a better product, it equals longevity of the tenant and then staying with us for a long time.

 

Speaker 1 (00:28:46) - And we typically start with an 18 month lease with escalators there with rent increases built in. But we find that we keep tenants for three and four years. Really good success with that. And think a lot of it is due to the areas we pick and then the product that we put out in the market. That's an excellent tenancy duration between 3 and 4 years with what you just laid out and describe there with these fresh rehabs and even granite countertops in your single family homes, it kind of feels like your own. So therefore you want to be a tenant longer. And I think that tenant duration, as long as mortgage interest rates stay high, really is set up to lengthen because it's that much more difficult for a renter to go out and be a first time homebuyer. So therefore, if you put them in a rental that they're really happy in and get that right right from the beginning that you guys do, it's unlikely that they're going to move into another rental because it's hard to do better than that.

 

Speaker 1 (00:29:40) - And it's also difficult for them to buy their own home due to this affordability constraint with the higher mortgage rates and higher prices. And when it comes to property prices, we listen to that media piece earlier where it was stated that the average or median home price, whatever it was, is about 200 K. So tell us about what rent we would see with what price for one of your typical properties there that you prepare for investors? Long var properties once they'd gone through the full turnkey renovation process and have been rented, they fall somewhere in a price range of 115 to say $140,000. Maybe our average sweet spot there. And those rents range anywhere from 1200 to $1500 a month, just sort of depending again on the location where it is and that sort of thing. So that medium may be up there in the 200 range. But again, we're sort of focusing on the B-class areas. And so that's where our price points tend to fall, that sort of like 120 to 140 price range. And if you're new to the show and you're a listener in Brooklyn, New York or Burbank, California, we're not talking about the 20% down payment amount here.

 

Speaker 1 (00:30:51) - We're talking about the complete purchase price amount with what we've discussed there. Tell us about your availability just in general over time. The inventory here, not unlike a lot of places around the country, is very tight right now. I mean, a lot of people are staying in homes and real estate just isn't moving like it was. So we're still finding opportunities, but not like we were. And that goes all the way down to home owner occupants. They're having a hard time finding places to buy because the sellers aren't selling. And that I think, trickles down to tenants as well. They're just fewer places to rent. That's what we're seeing. There is less supply than demand. And when something is coming on the market, I mean, it's getting gobbled up pretty quick, be it a rental or a property to buy. So the demand is still very strong and inventory is low. No, I'm curious, with prices that low, 150 K or less now that mortgage interest rates are higher, I think you know that I'm a leverage fan and we have ratios like that.

 

Speaker 1 (00:31:52) - You might be able to pay a higher interest rate yet still have cash flow but with higher interest rates. Brian Have you seen it where anyone is interested in making an all cash payment, a greater proportion of those people than there used to be? Yeah, absolutely. I mean, we're seeing people bring more money to the table for the down payment. We've seen quite a few cash buyers that we didn't normally see before. So yeah, people are just, you know, using their resources to write some of these things out or there's understanding to that this interest rate level is probably short term. And so they're like, you know, hey, let me go ahead and get this great property and hold on to it. Now, put a little bit more money into it. I'll refinance it later. So we are seeing a lot of people think more with that type of strategy in mind. I guess one approach is paying all cash now and then mortgage rates come down to a level where an investor is comfortable.

 

Speaker 1 (00:32:40) - They could maybe do an 80% cash out refinance. In my experience. What I've found, though, is that usually when someone pays for a property, all cash, no matter what mortgage rates do, they don't go back and get a mortgage on it. They just leave it paid all cash. That's what I always tend to see happen. Absolutely. And that's not a wrong way to go at all. I'll tell you what. And with appreciation built in and then, you know, all the other benefit tax write off benefits and those types of things. I mean, it ends up being a great place to put your cash if you had your cash, if you look at the full picture of the return. So to your point, people who go there temporarily end up staying there, right? Yeah, it goes from temporary to permanent and keep that paid off condition, even though it probably doesn't make a lot of financial sense. But it can depend on what situation. Well, in conclusion here, is there just anything else that an investor should know in general about the Little Rock market or Little Rock property or the particular renovations that you make to the property there? One thing just to point out kind of from an earlier part of our conversation about why, you know, the city is great for young professionals and had that Forbes ranking.

 

Speaker 1 (00:33:48) - And, you know, our cost of living here in Little Rock is 17% below the national average. So your money just goes further here. I believe. And I think that translates out right. And you know, at our unemployment is around 2%. So it's a very low unemployment rate. So the cost of living is lower your dollars go farther. Your tenants here tend to be more stable. There's job opportunities for them. So I think all of that builds into why Little Rock is a great investment market and why we see tenants stay in units for longer than their lease periods. As far as availability and quality of renovations, I mean, we certainly have availability. We have deals popping up all the time. I mean, we're known for our renovations and being at the top end of our renovations and a lot of our tenants come to us almost word of mouth. They've been in one of our rentals before with a friend or neighbor, and a lot of times they are knocking on our doors as we're renovating, asking when is this going to be available for rent? So a lot of it is reputation of product out there, even among the tenant population, not just the buyers out there.

 

Speaker 1 (00:34:53) - So I think those are some of the things we have going for us here. We continue on our our journey here. We've been investing in Little Rock since 1997, so we've got a great track record here and a lot of great experience. Yeah, Your volume of repeat investors that want to keep buying there is really a testimony to what you're doing. Well, thank you so much for sharing this. It's really an opportunity a lot of people don't know about or a lot of people don't think about. It's hard to find a more investor advantaged place than Little Rock, Arkansas, and surrounding central Arkansas. There for you, the listener from Marketplace, you'll see our little rock provider there or contact your investment coach If you don't have an investment coach yet, you can visit Marketplace com slash coach and pick your coach It's been great chatting about Little Rock. Oh yeah, a great chat about Little Rock. You know, one of the things that I visited while in Little Rock, it was the Clinton Presidential Library.

 

Speaker 1 (00:35:56) - It's worth checking out. But, you know, the one thing that I did not see, despite all the memorabilia and historic tributes to Bill Clinton there, there was not one mention, nothing about Monica Lewinsky. I could not find one in the whole place. I guess it's his library and he'll be remembered how he wants to be. But yeah, these numbers really work for investors 1200 to $1500 rent renovations like what we discussed in purchase prices of 115 to 140 K, So you can start with one of those properties or get a pack of these smaller sized single family rentals and then they can manage them all for you long term. They seek tenants for life there, quote unquote. So we're talking about working class, stable families now here in central Arkansas that should not be confused with higher priced areas out in northwest Arkansas. Okay. The provider and I were talking off air about a story that's emblematic of that area, Northwest Arkansas, a schoolteacher priced out of Bentonville. She couldn't find housing there. So she lives in a Fayetteville rental and commutes into Bentonville.

 

Speaker 1 (00:37:12) - Okay. Those are both northwest Arkansas cities. Of course, Bentonville is famously known as the Walmart headquarters. So we're not talking about northwest Arkansas here, which is an area that just doesn't work as well for long term rentals as Little Rock, central Arkansas. Forbes Even highlighting that Little Rock ranks as one of the top ten places for young professionals to live in, pointing out those super low house prices, Little Rock should be considered to see if it fits into your portfolio as a stable place with some of America's very best cash flows, which you can do is from Marketplace. You'll see our little rock provider there. If you want to connect with the provider yourself, you can also go directly to Marketplace slash Little Rock or if you prefer, contact your investment coach. It is free and Jerry marketplace slash coach until next week when I'll be back to help you build real estate wealth. I'm your host, Keith Winfield. Don't quit your day dream.

 

Speaker 4 (00:38:16) - Nothing on this show should be considered specific, personal or professional advice.

 

Speaker 4 (00:38:20) - Please consult an appropriate tax, legal, real estate, financial or business professional for individualized advice. Opinions of guests are their own information is not guaranteed. All investment strategies have the potential for profit or loss. The host is operating on behalf of Get Rich Education LLC exclusively.

 

Speaker 1 (00:38:44) - The preceding program was brought to you by your home for wealth building. Get rich education.

 

Direct download: GREepisode468_.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 4:00am EDT

The Fed can raise interest rates, but they cannot create housing supply. 

Housing intelligence analyst Rick Sharga joins us for the second week in a row.

This housing market is awful for primary residence homebuyers. But at GRE Marketplace, you can still buy income properties with rates as low as 4.75%.

Rick tells us that the most prosperous markets now favor the: Midwest and Southeast, single-family homes, rental property investors with buy-and-hold strategies.

National home prices are appreciating modestly. Home sales volume is still down.

Investors now account for more than one-quarter of property purchases.

Mortgage delinquencies are near an all-time low.

Rick and I discuss why this market is so bad for flippers. 

High homeowner equity positions ($300K+) support this housing market. 

Timestamps:

The impact of rising mortgage rates [00:02:37]

Discussion on how the Federal Reserve's raising of short-term rates has caused mortgage rates to go up, affecting the housing market.

The affordability challenge [00:03:38]

Exploration of the impact of higher mortgage rates on homebuyers, particularly first-time buyers, and the decrease in affordability.

Low supply of homes [00:08:48]

Analysis of the low inventory of homes for sale, with a decrease of 9% from the previous year and 47% from 2019, leading to a challenging market.

The mortgage rate lock in effect [00:11:05]

Discussion on how the mortgage rate lock in effect can crimp demand but cannot create supply.

Hottest markets in the Midwest and Southeast [00:11:05]

Analysis of the hottest real estate markets in the Midwest and Southeast regions of the United States.

Positive turn in home price appreciation [00:13:06]

Explanation of how home price appreciation went down but has recently turned positive again.

Housing Permits, Starts, and Construction [00:21:24]

Discussion on the trends and levels of housing permits, starts, and construction, and the need for builders to increase production.

Investor Activity in the Residential Market [00:22:28]

Exploration of the percentage of home purchases made by investors, with a focus on small and medium-sized investors and the misconception of institutional investors dominating the market.

Delinquencies and Foreclosures [00:24:36]

Analysis of mortgage delinquency rates, foreclosure activity, and homeowner equity, highlighting the low delinquency rates, the presence of equity in foreclosed homes, and the importance of early-stage foreclosure sales.

The future direction of rents [00:32:00]

Discussion on the potential upward pressure on rents due to low affordability and high homeownership rate.

Inventory coming to the market [00:33:03]

Exploration of the impact of expensive inventory coming to the market and its effect on rent prices.

The overall economy and housing market [00:34:03]

Consideration of the possibility of a recession, unemployment spike, and foreclosures affecting the housing market.

The coach's role in finding real estate deals [00:43:06]

Explanation of how an investment coach can help you find the best real estate deals in the marketplace.

Advantages of buying properties from marketplace [00:44:20]

Reasons why buying properties from marketplace can lead to good deals, including lower prices and absence of emotional seller involvement.

Resources mentioned:

Show Notes:

www.GetRichEducation.com/467

Rick Sharga’s website:

CJPatrick.com

Rick Sharga on X (Twitter):

@RickSharga

Get mortgage loans for investment property:

RidgeLendingGroup.com or call 855-74-RIDGE 

or e-mail: info@RidgeLendingGroup.com

Invest with Freedom Family Investments. You get paid first: Text ‘FAMILY’ to 66866

Will you please leave a review for the show? I’d be grateful. Search “how to leave an Apple Podcasts review” 

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GREmarketplace.com/Coach

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GetRichEducation.com

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(00:00:01) - Welcome to. I'm your host, Keith Weinhold. Hold a terrific discussion today on the direction of the housing market, including lessons that you can learn for all time plummeting home sales volume and direly low home inventory. Why home price appreciation is taking place now. Could the government soon penalize you for owning too many rental properties? What's the best place for a real estate investor to position themselves in this era? And more today on Get Rich Education.

 

(00:00:33) - You're listening to the show that has created more financial freedom than nearly any show in the world. This is Get rich education.

 

(00:00:56) - Walking from Horseheads, New York to Nags Head, North Carolina, and across 188 nations worldwide. I'm Keith Weinhold. And you're listening. To get rich education, you are going to get a fantastic market update today. And along the way, you'll also learn lessons if you're consuming this 5 or 10 years from now. Our expert guest was with us last week to discuss the economy. This week, it's episode two of two as we discuss the real estate market.

 

(00:01:25) - He has been the executive VP of markets at some of America's leading housing intelligence firms, and today he's the founder and CEO of Patrick Company, either a market intelligence firm for the real estate and mortgage markets. And he has 20 plus years of experience in those industries. It's the return of Rick Saga Part two of two. It's not imperative that you listen to last week's Part one of two that we can help you see the big picture. Enjoy this long, unbroken interview and then after the break, I'll come back to close it. Just you and I. We're talking with Rick Sagar, expert housing analyst, previously. We talked about the general condition of the economy. And now Rick and I are going to break down the housing market with what's happening there. There's so definitively connected. Keith One of the things to that the Federal Reserve has done by raising those short term rates is caused mortgage rates to go up, right? Mortgage rates tend to run loosely in line with the yields on the ten year US Treasury bonds that we talked about at the end of the first segment.

 

(00:02:37) - Those are now up around 4%. And typically a 30 year fixed rate mortgage will be between one and a half and two percentage points higher than that yield. So in a normal market, we'd be looking at a mortgage rate today of about five and a half to 6%. Instead because of the risk and the volatility that the market is pricing in because they're not sure what the Federal Reserve is going to do next. We're looking at mortgage rates for a 30 year fixed rate loan of over 7%. The most recent numbers from last week from Freddie Mac, we were at almost 7.2% on that average, 30 year fixed rate loan and 6.5% on a 15 year fixed rate loan. You and I were talking before the show and and you know, historically speaking, if we keep these things in context, we're still actually below the 25 year average, which was 8%. But we have a whole generation of homebuyers who've come of age during the period of the lowest mortgage rates in the history of the country. They got spoiled, they got spoiled.

 

(00:03:38) - And to be clear, it's one of the reasons that home prices rose as rapidly as they did and got as high as they are is because you could afford to make monthly payments with a two and a half, three, 3.5% mortgage. Now, you still have home prices about as high as they were then, and you have a mortgage rate that's doubled. And for most home buyers, particularly first time home buyers that make your monthly mortgage payment was going to go up by 45 to 60%. And most of us didn't get that 45 to 60% raise last year. It really had a huge impact on affordability. In fact, this is such an unusual occurrence that according to Freddie Mac, it's the only time in US history when mortgage rates doubled during a calendar year and they didn't just double in a calendar year. Keith They doubled in the space in a few months. It was that kind of systemic shock to the system that really hit the housing market as hard as it did. Right. And they've also nearly tripled in a pretty short period of time.

 

(00:04:35) - Yeah, they really have. And again, going back historically speaking and and get this from Gen Z folks and millennials, when I talk about, you know, the old days of mortgage and I do remember my first mortgage had two numbers to the left of the decimal point. I forget if it was 11 or 12%, but it was something like that. And they basically say, okay, Boomer, but that 11% mortgage was on your $70,000 house, Right. And not, you know, today's median priced home of $430,000 or whatever it is. So it's a fair point. Mortgage rates are not high, historically speaking, but that monthly cost, because of the combination of home prices and higher interest rates, is choking some people and making affordability a problem. And because of that, one of the forward looking metrics that I take a look at is the purchase loan mortgage application index from the Mortgage Bankers Association. So this is the number of people that are applying for loans with the purpose of buying a house.

 

(00:05:35) - They're off almost 30% on a year over year basis right now. You can see without straining your eyes at all the impact that these higher mortgage rates are having on the housing market. And we had almost record numbers of purchase loan applications from the time people who are allowed out of their house during the pandemic until these mortgage rates doubled from 2020 through the early part of 2022, mortgage rates were in the threes and fours and sometimes even in the twos. Yeah, everyone wants to talk about mortgage rates and it is an important discussion to have here at Marketplace with our investment coaches. Rick Some builders, as you know, they commonly offer rate buy down incentives to buyers of new homes. And what some of our providers are doing here, Rick, is we have one builder where if you use their preferred lender, they're buying down your income property's mortgage rate to 5.75%. And we have another builder where if you use their preferred lender, they're still buying down your mortgage rate to 4.75%. And of course, with Non-owner occupied property here, you know, previously you had talked about mortgage rates in excess of seven.

 

(00:06:47) - They might normally be about 8% for non owner occupied property, but you're able to buy them down to five and three quarters or even four and three quarters with one of our providers for new builds right now, that's a great deal and your listener should really be taking advantage of those opportunities. We'll get into new homes in a few minutes and what we're seeing builders do for consumers, But have to tell you, those numbers are better deals than consumers are getting right now. And you're being generous when you're talking about private lending rates right now. Most of the lenders I'm familiar with are nine, ten, 11%, depending on the nature of your investment. So your folks are getting a great deal with those rates. We talked about purchase loan applications. The other advanced predictor I look at is pending home sales. These are people that are entering into contracts. The deal hasn't been closed yet. Has it been recorded yet? This comes out from the National Association of Realtors. And those numbers are down on a year over year basis as well.

 

(00:07:42) - There's a lot of rate sensitivity in the market, though, Keith. And if you go back to March when rates went down just a fraction of a percent, we saw more purchase loan applications. We saw more pending home sales. But as rates have climbed back up over seven, we've seen both of these metrics go down. Yeah. So we're talking about pending home sales. We're talking about sales volume that's down in this discussion, not sales price. And anyone might be hard to say, but when you see sales volume that's down, including pending sales, how often is that due to worse affordability and how often is that due to low supply of homes? Why don't we jump right into that? Keith That's a great segue. And this is a very difficult time in the housing market because it has both of the factors that you just mentioned, two very difficult headwinds for the market to try and overcome. And and we'll get into details on both of those in just a minute. Because of that, existing home sales were down in July and they were down pretty significantly on a year over year basis, about 16%.

 

(00:08:48) - And that's the 23rd consecutive month where existing home sales were lower than they were the prior year. January was the lowest month of sales this month, and it broke a streak we started this year. I was forecasting that we'd see between 4.3 and 4.4 existing home sales. That's down from about 5.2 last year in about 6.1 million the year before. Right now, we're trending at a little over 4 million existing home sales for the year. So even my relatively low forecast for the year may have been overly optimistic. You mentioned inventory and inventory is a huge headwind for the market. Inventory of homes for sale today is down about 9% from where it was a year ago. It's down 47% from where we were in 2019, which was probably the last normal year we've had in the housing market. In a normal year, we would be looking at about a six month supply of homes available for sale. That's what economists or housing market analysts will look at as a balanced market balance between supply and demand. We're at about two and a half months supply right now nationally and in many states it's much lower than that.

 

(00:09:56) - So there's just not much out here. And the only reason the inventory number looks as good as it looks and it doesn't look very good is because it's taking a little longer to sell properties once they hit the market. If you were looking at new listing data, it's even worse. There's very little inventory coming to market in the way of new listings, and that's because of the rate increases we talked about a minute ago. 90% of borrowers with a mortgage have an interest rate on that mortgage of 6% or less. 70% have an interest rate of 4% or less. If you're sitting on a mortgage rate of 3.5% and you sell your house and buy a house at the same exact price with a 7% mortgage, you've just doubled your monthly mortgage payment. It's not that people psychologically don't want to trade a low rate for a high rate. There's a financial penalty for them doing so. And until we see mortgage rates come down a bit, probably into the fives, we're just not going to see a lot of inventory coming to market except for homeowners who need to sell or have so much equity and maybe you're going to downsize into a smaller property that they don't care about that kind of shift.

 

(00:11:05) - Yeah, that is the mortgage rate lock in effect. Perfectly explain. And the Fed with the raising rates, they can crimp demand. But one thing that the Fed cannot do is create supply. As much as you might like to see Jerome Powell in work boots with a nail gun, that just doesn't happen. There's an image for you, for your listeners. Yeah, and I'm not sure I'd want to. I'd want to live in that house. That's not Chairman Powell building, but inspection. Yeah. Good economist. Maybe not a carpenter. We were talking about this a little bit earlier, too. And if you're an investor, this is probably worth noting, whether you're a fix and flip investor or investor who's buying properties to rent out a lot of the interest. This is from the sharing some data from Realtor.com and they've taken a look at where people are searching for properties and where transactions are taking place and they're finding that Midwest Southeast are really the hottest markets, places that are a little off the beaten path, you know, places in New Hampshire and Connecticut and Maine and Ohio and Wisconsin.

 

(00:12:06) - But interestingly, some of the markets that had been suffering a little bit, they're starting to see a little more interest in whether it's California, but off the coast or markets in Colorado or Washington state. But clearly, a lot of the activity, a lot of the money is moving into the Midwest, in southeast. That's right. With the work from anywhere trend, you might see this small flattening and not as much of a disparity in home prices between markets. You're certainly still going to see that, but that can just help create a mild flattening when it doesn't matter where you live anymore and you can go ahead and purchase in lower cost markets. Yeah, and what I'm sharing now is national home prices, home price. And I'm glad you mentioned what you just did, Keith, because the fact of the matter is this has been a very localized correction. And if you're in San Francisco or San Jose, if you're in Seattle, if you're in Austin, if you're in Phoenix, you're in markets where prices are off 10% or more from peak.

 

(00:13:06) - If you're in Boise, Idaho, you're off more than 10% from peak of Boise had oil prices go up by 47% in a single year, a year or so ago. So he just overshot the mark. One of the reasons the national numbers don't show more volatility is because of what Keith just mentioned. It's because people are trading in where they are in a high price, high tax state moving into a lower price state and candidly outbidding local buyers and probably overpaying a little bit for those properties. So you're seeing home prices go up in some of those less expensive markets much more rapidly than they would under normal circumstances. And what we're talking about here is national home prices that are appreciating at a modest rate now. Yeah, and they are. So if you look at whether you're looking at the Case-Shiller index, it gets published monthly or the National Association of Realtors data. We saw home price appreciation start to go down last year. It was still positive but going down and that was true until pretty much the end of the first quarter this year when the data went negative for the first time in years.

 

(00:14:15) - So we were seeing on both a month over month and year over year basis home prices go down and that happened until June, June, things flatlined in July. Prices actually went up ah, year over year. So if you're looking at the median home price compared to the peak price a year ago, it's actually up about 1% from where we were last year, which is kind of amazing. The Case-Shiller index is a little bit of a lagging indicator and it rolls three months together, but it also started to turn the corner with its July report. So after almost a full year of price appreciation coming down and prices in decline, we've seen both of these indexes turn and are starting to go positive. It does show you that there continues to be demand for properties that are brought to market. And while home price appreciation certainly isn't soaring by any means, it's back in positive territory now. And that's something that a lot of people hadn't predicted this year. When the supply of homes is this low, it keeps generating a few bids for any available home.

 

(00:15:21) - Now, not as many bids as it did back in 2021. But besides generating bids, you have these huge population cohorts of millennials and Gen Zers that are growing, and they're in their prime homebuyer years moving through the system to go ahead and place those bids and keep just modest home price appreciation here lately. That's sort of how I see it. Rick If you want to add any color or thoughts to that, I think you're spot on. Keith It's the largest cohort of young adults between the ages of 25 and 34 in US history. That's prime age for forming a household. 33 to 34 is the average age of a first time buyer right now. And so these people would like to buy a house. And for people who are investing in single family rental properties in particular, at least short term, the affordability issue is something that definitely works in your favor. If somebody was looking to buy a house, they might prefer to rent a house rather than rent an apartment. I've read research that shows somewhere between 20 and 30% of people who had planned to buy have decided to rent for the next year or two while market conditions settle down or while they can put aside more money for a down payment.

 

(00:16:27) - These market conditions are playing in favor of people who have rental properties to offer. One other metric I'd like to share in terms of home prices, Keith is the FHFa puts out its own index. FHFa is the government entity that controls Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. So these are your conventional bread and butter, vanilla kind of 30 year fixed rate loans. If you look at their portfolio, home prices are actually up 3.1% year over year. And every sector of the country is showing positive rice appreciation except for the Pacific states and the mountain states. And those are some of the markets we talked about earlier. And even those are very close to breaking even at this point. So HFA breaks it into about ten regions, nine of those ten currently appreciating year over year. Yep, something like that important for you to know again as an investor as to what's happening in your region. Again, whether you're you're planning to sell the property or rent it out. You talked about what builders are doing for your investor folks.

 

(00:17:28) - Yeah, we're seeing new home sales actually improving to consumers as well for a lot of the same reasons, incentives. So a lot of builders are coming to the closing table with cash. They're paying points on mortgages and getting those rates down where they're short term or long term. They're offering discounts, they're offering upgrades to properties. And so new home sales are still down, but just slightly on a year over year basis and have actually been beating last year's numbers for the last four months. My original estimate for new home sales this year was about 600,000. I think we're going to probably coming closer to 675,000 this year. And the only reason we won't sell more is because the builders aren't building that fast enough. But one of the reasons people are buying these new homes is because that's what's on the market today. People would have bought an existing home, can't find one. Here's the other factor. New home prices are down 16.4% from last year's peak. Now, this is informative. Think this would surprise a lot of people? Well, it surprises me.

 

(00:18:28) - It should surprise people because new home prices almost always go up, right? This does not mean builders are discounting homes 16.4%. What's happening is they are building less expensive homes, They're less expensive per square foot, and they're building smaller homes. And they're doing that in acknowledgement of the higher cost of financing. That also, by the way, is in sending people to look at these properties as either a starter home or a minor move up kind of property. But it is one of the reasons why new home sales are doing better than existing home sales right now on a percentage basis. That's an interesting number, Rick. A few weeks ago, I shared with our newsletter audience that builders are building homes smaller and closer together, which might be reflected in lower prices, but just didn't think it would be 16.4% lower from peak. Now, if you're doing year over year, it's probably not that big of a drop, but from the peak price we are off. And it is to your point, it's a pretty significant number.

 

(00:19:26) - It would be a problematic number if it was the existing home market, right, because then you'd be looking at the same property being worth 16% less. But a builder can kind of play with those numbers a little bit. Single family housing starts after falling for quite a while, are now back going back up only slightly from where they were a year ago, but they are moving in the right direction. Multifamily starts have actually tailed off a little bit after reaching record high numbers. There could be as many as a million apartment units coming to market this year. Yeah, which would be an all time record. So we've seen building on those multifamily units slow down a little bit. If you look at at new home starts for single family properties still below where they were a year ago. But again, for the first time in quite a few months, starting to trend up. A couple of things to share with your viewers here, Keith. In terms of construction, we're seeing construction continue to grow in the multifamily market because of all the starts we saw previously.

 

(00:20:23) - We are seeing single family construction slowed down, but that's because the builders are working their way through a glut of homes that was under construction. So we had a really weird happenstance about a year ago, a little over year, we had the highest number of homes under construction ever. And this data goes back to the early 1970s, and we had the lowest number of completed properties available for sale ever. And a lot of that was due to supply chain delays and to labor shortages. And over the last year to 15 months, the builders have gradually begun working through this glut of homes that were started but not finished. And we've seen the number of completed homes go up a little bit, almost back to normal levels, not quite there. One of the reasons they're not quite there is people are buying these homes before they're completed. They're working with the builder. Buying a home is it's almost ready to go, but still under construction. What's been encouraging, looking into the future is that permitting has increased a bit over the last two quarters.

 

(00:21:24) - We know builders are betting on the future. They're not necessarily breaking ground on all these properties they have permits for because they don't want to oversaturate either. And they're being very judicious with their building because they got caught with a ton of inventory during the Great Recession that they wound up selling at fire sale prices. But the trends are long term, looking like they're going in the right direction right now for new homes. So to help the viewer and listeners chronologically, we're talking about housing permits followed by housing starts. And then finally, housing construction. Right? Permits are up, starts are up recently, but down year over year. And the construction numbers are getting back close to normal levels. And we need the builders to build more because even before the rate lock effect took effect and existing home inventory got so scarce we didn't have enough housing in the works, we were depending on whose numbers you believe, somewhere between 2 and 6 million units short. We need the builders to come back to market. Note for your folks.

 

(00:22:28) - Keith Investors continue to account for a fairly significant amount of activity in the residential market. Over a quarter of home purchases 26% in June, which is the most recent data we have, were made by investors and believe this number actually under reports the number of investor purchases because it's from a company called CoreLogic, it's accurate data for what they count, but they only count investor purchases where the buying entity has an LLC and LP Corp kind of entity. And we know that a lot of buyers don't do that who are investors. So it probably understates it. But the fact of the matter is that historically speaking, 26% of residential purchases being done by investors is pretty high number. That's a pretty high number and as you alluded to, is probably actually higher than 26% of home purchases being made by investors. And so the headlines will breathlessly tell you that Main Street is being gobbled up by Wall Street. Oh, I know. And those institutional investors are evil people. They're buying everything that the truth is is completely the opposite.

 

(00:23:31) - If you look at investors who are buying properties, it's really the small investors who are buying about 46% of those investor purchases and medium sized investors about 35%. If you're looking at the biggest of the big investors, they're buying less than 10% of what's going out today. And they still own collectively about 3% of the single family rental stock. It's the mom and pop investor who continues to drive the market. Yeah, I'm glad you bring this up, Rick, because there seems to be this outsized perception that institutional money through someone like, say, in Invitation homes is just gobbling up all the good investor homes. And and they're really not. It's mom and pop investors that rule. In fact, there's some legislation pending in D.C. right now that's aimed to keep these institutional investors from doing what they're already not doing and have some tax penalties for anybody who owns. Here's the number that's important. More than 50 properties well, Invitation Homes owns significantly more than 50 properties. I know a lot of medium sized investors who own more than 50 properties.

 

(00:24:36) - Yeah, they're certainly not institutional investors. They certainly don't have a hedge fund behind them. Important again, for folks in this market to be in touch with their legislators and let them know what's really going on in the marketplace so we don't get this kind of bad legislation. It makes it tough for the average investor to really take full advantage of the opportunities that are out there. 100%. Mom and pop investors might need more than 50 units to obtain financial freedom. Yep. Just to wrap up, Keith, a couple of points on delinquencies and foreclosures. I know a lot of investors got into the business, you know, a decade or so ago and there was just a rash of foreclosure activity and you could buy a distressed property by just walking down the street and knocking on doors. It's a little different these days because of that strong economy we talked about earlier. In that low unemployment rate. Mortgage delinquencies are at an all time low. Mortgage Bankers Association reported that the midpoint of this year, at the end of the second quarter, the total delinquency rate was 3.37%.

 

(00:25:36) - To put that in context, historically the number is somewhere between 4 and 5%. So not only are we not seeing a lot of delinquencies, we're seeing less than we would see normally as seriously delinquent loans. The ones that are 90 days plus past due is as low as we've seen it in probably the last 6 or 7 years. That's really interesting. So not very many homeowners are in trouble with making their payments, which to some people might seem like a conflict with what we described back in the earlier part of the chat about low savings and higher credit card debt. So many of these homeowners are locked in to these really low payments where they got low mortgage interest rates. Plus inflation cannot touch those fixed rate payments. And that's an important point for those people that are in these homes. It would be more expensive for them to go rent right now, probably because they got such a good deal on the mortgage rate. There's usually a pretty strong correlation between unemployment rates and mortgage delinquency rates. So I mentioned that the most recent report had unemployment at 3.8%.

 

(00:26:37) - I think at the end of June it was a 3.5%. So we might see delinquency rates tick up a little bit. There was also some really bad social media memeing going on during the government's mortgage forbearance program. There was even an economist who predicted that almost everybody who got a forbearance was going to go into default and that would have been a catastrophe. If you look back a little over a year ago, actually more like two years ago when there was there were a lot of people in forbearance. You saw delinquency rates very high, but that was because people were allowed to miss payments. They were just being counted by the industry as delinquent. The fact is that less than a half of a percent, less than one half of 1% of the borrowers who were in forbearance and there were 8.5 million of them have defaulted on their loans. The overwhelming majority have done very, very well with that program. So it really didn't contribute to any kind of delinquency or default activity. So strong economy, extremely high, low quality because lenders really haven't been making many risky loans since the Great Recession.

 

(00:27:40) - The record amount of of homeowner equity that's out there. Yeah. Is keeping this market pretty solid to the point where foreclosure activity today is still running at a little bit less than 60% of pre-pandemic levels. So in a normal market, about 1 to 1.5% of loans are in some state of foreclosure. In today's market, it's about a half a percent. So we're just not seeing much go into foreclosure and the properties that go into foreclosure. The homeowners have a significant amount of equity. 92% of borrowers in foreclosure have equity in their homes, which is wildly different from where we were during the great financial crisis, when a third of all homeowners were underwater on their loans. At just about everybody in foreclosure was upside down. And people push back at me when I'm out talking at conferences about this. Keith Oh, yeah, they have equity, but they don't have enough equity to make a difference. Oh, yes, they do. 88% of the borrowers in foreclosure have more than 20% equity. That's typically the magic number that a realtor will tell you you need in order to sell your property and avoid any other kind of complications with one of these foreclosures, preventing any sort of fire sale and lowering of prices that makes all home prices go down in a neighborhood where not anywhere near that.

 

(00:28:57) - No, not at all. And in fact, some other data that I'll share with you and your listeners is that about 62% of the distressed property sales we see right now are properties in the early stage of foreclosure prior to the foreclosure auction, which means these distressed homeowners are protecting their equity by selling the property before it gets sold at a foreclosure sale. And so they're protecting the vast amount of this equity. But if you're an investor in today's market, there's some really important information in what I just gave you. You can't wait for the bank repossession. In this cycle, bank repossessions are running 70% below where they were prior to the pandemic, so there's fewer properties getting to auction because 67% of these distressed property sales are prior to the auction. Properties that get to auction are selling through at about 60% rate. So there's nothing going back to the lenders. So if you want to buy a property in some stage of foreclosure, your best bet in today's market is to get a list of people in the early stages of foreclosure and reach out directly to them.

 

(00:30:01) - Your second best bet is to get to that foreclosure auction. Be ready to move at the auction, and your worst bet is to wait for the lender to repossess the property. And in fact, I've seen anecdotal data that suggests that those properties are actually more expensive than the ones you could buy from the homeowner or at the auction because the lenders are fixing them up and selling them at full market price. Good guidance for those chasing distressed properties. So that's what's going on in the foreclosure market. I don't see foreclosure activity being back to normal levels until sometime next year. And I don't see activity bank repossessions being back to normal levels even next year. It's a very different marketplace. This is what I was just talking about. Keith If you were to break up what selling and what stage of the foreclosure process right now, about 64% of distressed sales are taking place prior to the foreclosure auction and less than 20%. Distressed sales today are those background properties. So it's a very different world than what a lot of investors grew up in.

 

(00:31:03) - Rick is about to share his summary with us, his closing thoughts. Before he does that, I've got two questions for you, Rick. I hear some people out there, it seems to be oftentimes the real estate agent type, maybe that's trying to be a big cheerleader for the market. And I hear a few of them say something like, hey, you know what? You better buy now, because when mortgage rates fall, home prices are really going to shoot through the roof. I don't really know that that necessarily happens because when mortgage rates fall, okay, that might increase demand of capable homebuyers, but it should also increase supply. Now, the mortgage rate lock in effect, goes away and more people will want to bring supply onto the market. And I also like to think about what happens when rates are falling. Typically, that means the economy needs help and unemployment might be a little higher. So my thoughts, Rick, are if mortgage rates do fall substantially, that might help home price appreciation a little bit, but I don't see it as any sure thing that that would make home prices go through the roof.

 

(00:32:00) - What are your thoughts? It's a great question. You make a very logical argument. A lot of it comes down to supply. And that's where I would hedge my bets. I don't think we see a ton of supply come back to market until rates are back in the low fives. So there's a point and a half of interest going from little over seven to maybe 5.5%, where we're probably going to see more buyers come to market than we're going to see inventory come to the market. My other thought we touched on it earlier is with rents. Talk to me about the future direction of rents. They were horribly hot a year or two ago, up 15% year over year. Rents have moderated substantially. But with this really lousy home affordability and a high homeownership rate, it seems like with this low affordability, we're set up for the homeownership rate to go lower in the proportion that rent go higher, which could put upward pressure on rents over time here. What are your thoughts with rents? Yeah, offsetting what you just said is a record number of apartment units coming to market this year.

 

(00:33:03) - There are likely to be some markets across the country that wind up oversupplied because of the amount of inventory coming to market. Now, don't get me wrong, the inventory coming to market is going to tend to be expensive inventory. And so that in and of itself could make rent prices come up a bit. I do believe in the short term I would tend to agree with you that the lack of housing stock available for people who would like to buy is going to play in the benefit of the folks who own properties to rent. And that will, I believe, be particularly true for people that own single family residential units that are like houses to rent. I guess we're going to split the difference on these two questions. I'm going to mostly agree with you on the second one. I do believe there's a chance prices will go up a little bit more than you think as mortgage rates come down until we get down to about 5.5%, mortgage rates are lower when we see more of that inventory coming to market. And what is the real wild card in all of this, of course, is what happens with the overall economy.

 

(00:34:03) - Do we enter a recession? Does unemployment spike? If that's the case, that should weaken, demand a bit and you could have a little bit of an uptick in foreclosures, which will weaken the market as well. So a lot of different components at play. And I think what people ask you questions like that, Keith, about, you know, mortgage rates come down, is this going to happen? They kind of oversimplify the equation quite a bit. There are a lot of other variables that go into it. 100%. Why don't you go ahead and share your closing thoughts with us? A lot of stuff we covered, so I won't dwell on too much of this very long. But from my perspective, a recession is still a real possibility. Probably not until next year if we have one. And if we do, it's likely to be pretty mild and fairly short and we shouldn't see a huge, huge spike in unemployment. I do believe that as the Fed decides it's done raising the Fed funds rate and announces that we'll see mortgage rates gradually decline back toward 6% by the end of this year.

 

(00:34:57) - And we'll be back in the fives next year. And by the way, historically, every time the Fed has stopped raising the Fed funds rate, we have seen mortgage rates come back down. Existing home sales right now are on pace for their lowest number since 2009. Likely, we're going to see somewhere in the neighborhood of 4.2 million existing home sales. But we're likely to see more new home sales than a lot of people had forecast beginning of this year, maybe 650, 675,000 of those sales in 2023. And we've seen prices decline in the new home market, but they might have bottomed out in the existing home market because of the supply and demand thing that Keith and I have kind of beaten to death during this podcast. Again, importantly for this audience, investors continue to account for a very large percentage of residential purchases and a lot of you seem to be shifting toward buy and hold strategies, which again makes ultimately good sense in a market like today's. And then that anticipated wave of foreclosures that all those folks on YouTube were trying to sell you courses to figure out how to maximize never materialized.

 

(00:35:57) - And at least during this cycle, not likely to any time soon. Probably won't. Yes, A lot of people a couple of years ago, especially on YouTube, were talking about a certain price collapse is coming and it never happened. And I never saw how it would have happened and I never made those sort of dire predictions. Well, Rick, this was a great chat about the overall economy, the housing market and what investors need with the housing market. I'm sure our audience learned an awful lot. It was a terrific update. If our audience wants to learn more about you and kind of wish this chat would just go on and they could learn more about you and engage with your resources. What's the best way for them to do that? Well, you can certainly follow me on social media. I refuse to say my Twitter handle is just Rick Saga. I'm on LinkedIn to hard to find there. You can also check out my website which is Patrick. Com. Enjoy doing these conversations with you Keith.

 

(00:36:51) - Think the first time we talked you reached out because I had come down like the wrath of God on somebody who was predicting a housing price crash because I didn't see one coming either and thought he was doing investors a disservice. So keep the faith and keep the good fight going. Keith And I'll be here whenever you want to talk. Jerry Listeners can't stop talking about their service from Ridge Lending Group and MLS 42056. They have provided our tribe with more loans than anyone there truly a top lender for beginners and veterans. It's where I go to get my own loans for single family rental property up to four Plex's. So start your pre-qualification and you can chat with President Charlie Ridge personally, though, even deliver your custom plan for growing your real estate portfolio. Start at Ridge Lending Group. Com. You know, I'll just tell you for the most passive part of my real estate investing personally, I put my own dollars with freedom family investments because their funds pay me a stream of regular cash flow in. Returns are better than a bank savings account up to 12%.

 

(00:38:00) - Their minimums are as low as 25. K. You don't even need to be accredited. For some of them, it's all backed by real estate and I kind of love how the tax benefit of doing this can offset capital gains in your W-2, jobs, income. And they've always given me exactly their stated return paid on time. So it's steady income, no surprises while I'm sleeping or just doing the things I love. For a little insider tip, I've invested in their power fund to get going on that text family to 668660. And this isn't a solicitation If you want to invest where I do, just go ahead and text family to six six, eight six, six. Hi, this is Russell Gray, co-host of the Real Estate Guy's radio show. And you're listening to Get Rich Education with Keith Reinhold. Don't Quit Your Day dream. Yeah, terrific insight from Rick, as usual. It's remarkable how much this interview is aligned with what we're doing here. As Rick discussed how, though, it's a tough environment for homebuyers, it's better for investors, especially for single family rentals and especially in the Midwest and South are core areas.

 

(00:39:23) - It's a better market for the buy and hold investor than it is for flippers. It's a tough chase for flippers. Sometimes you don't flip the house, the house flips you. There are still so few homeowners in delinquency and foreclosure. Rick believes that when lower mortgage rates come, home, prices could appreciate more than I tend to think. We'll see how that turns out. And, you know, historically here, as we talk about the direction of home prices and the direction of rent growth Now with respect to home prices, when I provided you with the home price appreciation forecast, I keep somewhat undershooting. The market appreciation tends to outperform what I think by just a bit. Back in 2018, 2019, home price appreciation rates, they were just kind of bumping along at 4 or 5%. Back then, interest rates were super low, housing supply was more balanced. And I said right here on this show then about five years ago, that I don't see what will make home price growth like really accelerate or shoot up from here.

 

(00:40:32) - Well, then we had the pandemic, something that no one saw coming when the pandemic fog cleared. You remember that all here on the show in late 2021, I forecast 9 to 10% home price appreciation for the coming year, which back then I was talking about 2022. And then that appreciation rate for 2022 came in at 10.2%. Although I was close, I shot just a touch low. Now at the end of 2022, well, about nine months ago, I predicted zero home price appreciation for this year. As we near the fourth quarter, it looks like we'll get low single digit appreciation, but that remains to be seen. However, I've long been undershooting the market just a bit, though. Close and mortgage rates. No, don't even ask me. I don't try I don't make mortgage forecast. That is too hard to do. Making a mortgage rate prediction is almost like a certain way to be wrong. Although Rick and I talked about how this is a good market for investors, to my point from last week, in some markets, cash flow has become an endangered species with some of these increasing expenses for investors.

 

(00:41:46) - And again, I have some really good news for you here. We have largely solved that problem here at Gray of higher mortgage rates, hurting your cash flow. And that's why investors like you are still snapping up rental properties from Marketplace right now because of the strength of our marketplace network and relationships. Here we have a new build provider offering a mortgage rate to investors of 5.75%. Yes, they will see that your rate is bought down to 5.75%. In today's environment, another new build investment property provider is offering a rate buy down to 4.75%. Yes, you heard THAtrillionIGHT? And we have another builder provider where our investment coaches have been sharing with you a 2.99% seller financing option. There is more to it than that. And these builders, though they are in business to move property. So take advantage of it where you can. And besides buying down your mortgage rate for you like that, some are even waiving their property management fee for you for the first year. In addition to buying down the rate. I don't know how long all that's going to last, so this can be a really good time for you to contact your in investment coach.

 

(00:43:06) - Your coach will help you shop the marketplace properties, tell you where the real deals are and tell you how to get those improbably low mortgage rates for income properties. Today, your coach guides you and makes it easy for you If you don't have an investment coach yet, just go to Marketplace. Com slash coach and they're there to help you out. And marketplace properties they are often less expensive than elsewhere in addition to the low rates from some of the providers. But now you might wonder why often are the prices not always, but often, why are they lower? Well, first of all, investor advantage markets just intrinsically have lower prices than the national median. And secondly, there is no real estate agent to compensate with the traditional 6% commission, you are buying more directly. Thirdly, these property providers, they are not. And pop flippers that provide investors like you and other people where they just flip like one home a year instead. These are builders and renovation and management companies in business to do this at scale so they get to buy their materials in bulk, keeping the price lower for you.

 

(00:44:20) - And another reason that you tend to find good deals at Marketplace is that you aren't buying properties from owner occupants where their emotions get involved and they get irrational over there on the seller side. So you can go ahead and get started with off market deals at GRI, marketplace.com. If you'd like the free coaching from our investment coaches, then contact your coach. And if you don't have one yet again you can do that straight at GRI marketplace.com/coach that's an action item for you this week that your future self should thank you for until next week. I'm your host Keith Winfield. Don't quit your day dream.

 

(00:45:04) - Nothing on this show should be considered specific, personal or professional advice. Please consult an appropriate tax, legal, real estate, financial or business professional for individualized advice. Opinions of guests are their own information is not guaranteed. All investment strategies have the potential for profit or loss. The host is operating on behalf of Get Rich Education LLC exclusively.

 

(00:45:32) - The preceding program was brought to you by your home for wealth building get rich education.




Direct download: GREepisode467_.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 4:00am EDT

In many world nations, if you’re born poor, you stay poor. I discuss how in America, you can be upwardly mobile.

Back in 2010, real estate prices had fallen, but rents had not. This created years of cash flow. Today, as prices have outpaced rents, cash flow keeps shrinking.

Our Investment Coaches have access to income properties with 4.75% and 5.75% mortgage interest rates. It's a way to "bring back cash flow". Get started at GREmarketplace.com/Coach

Terrific housing intelligence analyst Rick Sharga joins us for the first of two consecutive episodes.

Rick & I discuss the condition of the American consumer, inflation and interest rates, concerns about a potential economic downturn, the housing market, the impact of consumer confidence on spending, and the actions taken by the Federal Reserve to control inflation. 

There’s flagging consumer confidence and a yield curve inversion. Are these finally harbingers of an economic recession?

Rick’s informal survey of economists find that there’s a 50-50 chance of a recession this cycle. Earlier this year, 80% of economists felt that a recession was imminent.

If there is a recession this cycle, Rick thinks there’s a probability that it will be mild.

Average hourly wages are $28-29 / hour. Wage growth is 4-5%. Wages are finally running higher than home price appreciation.

Timestamps:

The Future of Real Estate Investing [00:01:33]

Discusses how owning real estate can help individuals move into a different wealth class and the benefits of owning rental properties.

Changes in the Real Estate Market [00:04:06]

Explains how the real estate market has changed over the years, with property prices catching up to rents and the decrease in cash flow opportunities.

Taking Advantage of Low Mortgage Rates [00:07:53]

Highlights the opportunity for investors to take advantage of low mortgage rates offered by builders and the benefits of using their preferred lenders. (Yes, even here in 2023. We have 4.75% and 5.75% rates that builders buy down.)

The housing market correction [00:11:31]

Discussion on the correction in the housing market and its localized impact on different regions.

Economic landscape of the United States [00:16:09]

Overview of the US economy, including GDP growth and the strength of consumer spending.

Wage growth and home price appreciation [00:20:16]

Comparison of wage growth outpacing home price growth, impacting housing market affordability.

Consumer Confidence and Spending [00:21:24]

The correlation between consumer confidence and spending during the pandemic, the impact of subsequent waves of COVID, and the role of pent-up consumer demand and government stimulus.

Red Flags in Consumer Spending [00:22:25]

The disconnect between consumer spending and low confidence scores, the record level of consumer credit card use, and the decrease in personal savings rates.

Inflation and the Federal Reserve [00:25:44]

The high inflation rate in 40 years, the actions taken by the Federal Reserve to control inflation, the impact on housing costs, and the potential for a recession.

Yield Curve Inversion and Recession Predictions [00:31:07]

Discussion on the yield curve inversion and its historical correlation with recessions.

Impact of Recession on the Housing Market [00:32:04]

Exploration of the potential impact of a recession on the housing market.

Part Two: State of the Housing Market and Future of Investment Real Estate [00:33:03]

Teaser for the next episode, which will analyze the state of the housing market and the future of investment real estate.

Resources mentioned:

Show Notes:

www.GetRichEducation.com/466

Rick Sharga on X (Twitter):

@RickSharga

Get mortgage loans for investment property:

RidgeLendingGroup.com or call 855-74-RIDGE 

or e-mail: info@RidgeLendingGroup.com

Invest with Freedom Family Investments. You get paid first: Text ‘FAMILY’ to 66866

Will you please leave a review for the show? I’d be grateful. Search “how to leave an Apple Podcasts review” 

Top Properties & Providers:

GREmarketplace.com

GRE Free Investment Coaching:

GREmarketplace.com/Coach

Best Financial Education:

GetRichEducation.com

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@keithweinhold

 

Keith Weinhold (00:00:01) - Welcome to. I'm your host, Keith Weinhold. Today, it's part one of two of my exclusive interview with one of the nation's foremost housing intelligence analysts. How's the condition of today's American consumer? What's the future of inflation, the Fed interest rates? And should you really be concerned about a downturn today on get rich education?

 

Corey Coates (00:00:28) - You're listening to the show that has created more financial freedom than nearly any show in the world. This is Get rich education.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:00:51) - Welcome from Orange County, Florida, to Orange County, California, and across 188 nations worldwide. You're listening to one America's longest running and most listened to shows on real estate. With nearly nine years of weekly episodes. You're listening to Get Rich Education. I'm your host, Keith Wine expert, housing and mortgage analyst Rick Sugar is back and he is figuratively waiting in the wings. Here to give us an update on the economy shortly. In many nations of the world, if you are born poor, you stay poor. It's really hard to change wealth classes because you can't own anything in so many world places.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:01:33) - If you're born middle class, you also stay middle class. There's no way out of that. Owning real estate is the number one way to move yourself into a different wealth class. Owning your own business is another way, but with owning real estate, it's quite easy to follow a template and do what someone else has already done. Within a proven system. You don't have to have a new out-of-the-box business idea. For example, in the US, if you start collecting assets that pay you each month, you can quickly become upwardly mobile. In America, even if you were born into poverty and have a long line of impoverishment in your family, you can own your own home and that can help you go from poor to middle class. You can add rental properties and go from poor or middle class to wealthy because if you're in the US you are allowed to own things. Yeah, keep accumulating properties and keep getting rent money from tenants. In so many nations of the world. If you come from modest means, you just cannot get dozens of people or hundreds of people to pay you one third of their income every month.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:02:52) - But here you can get all these tenants to pay you one third of their salary in rent so you can close that class divide. It's up to you. That's what makes the US great. You can move into a different wealth class, the GSEs, the government sponsored enterprises. They will even give you backing on a bank loan so that you can do this. They're really encouraging this and enticing you to do this with as little as a 3% down payment on your primary residence or 20% down on rental properties. It's like they're almost forcing you to succeed. And there's even a 1% down program for primary residences now available in some places. So the bank gives you the loan, the tenant pays you the rent, and the government gives you the tax break. Like I say, that right there is using other people's money three ways at the same time, the bank, the tenant and the government, it all sort of falls in your lap if you want it to, but you do have to ask for it and you do have to do some arranging and you need to be diligent and attentive to.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:04:06) - But most Americans, they just aren't wise to this. Now, the real estate market, it has changed from a few years ago. It was spring of 2020 where we had that big inflection point, as you know, because I often discuss it. That was that supply crash. And since that time, home prices have run up faster than rents. But I'd like to give you some broader perspective here. There's something important with real estate investing that you may not have realized coming out of the global financial crisis 2008, 2009, 2010. At 2010, when we really started to lift up out of the rubble because by 2010, property prices were still down low. They were near the rock bottom. They're even lower than replacement costs in a lot of markets, which was artificially low. But see, rents didn't really fall much in the GFC. Rents stayed the same. So you know what happened in 2010 and all the years following it will cash flow began. And that's because all over America you then had these high rents and low purchase prices that had been beaten down by the GFC.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:05:18) - Cash flow like that wasn't really normal, but by now property prices have caught up to rents and even surpassed them. So besides investors being used to low mortgage rates, these ultra low rates, they also got used to this ultra high ratio of rent income to purchase price. That's just not there like it used to be. So today, in more places, you can't expect much of anything for cash flow now with a few years of. Income property ownership. Say if you bought something late this year, a few years later, now you shouldn't count on it. But rents, as we know, historically rise to then start providing you with cash flow to complement the other four ways that you're simultaneously paid. So my point is that today the deals aren't as good as they were ten years ago and five years ago, and that is all part of the provenance and perspective that I'm sharing with you from the real estate investing landscape starting from back around 15 years ago. But today I posit that it is still difficult to find a better place to invest a dollar than with a loan on carefully bought income property.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:06:31) - And I have some really good news for you here. All right. We know higher mortgage rates. They're not just a pain point for first time homebuyers and second time homebuyers for that matter, but they're a pain point for you, the investor. Well, if you didn't already know, we have largely sort of that problem here at Gray. And that is why investors like you are still snapping up rental properties fast. From Marketplace today, owner occupied mortgage rates are about 7% in income. Property rates are about 8%. But because of the strength of our marketplace networks and relationships here we have one new build provider offering a mortgage rate of 5.75%. Yes, they will see that your mortgage rate is bought down to 5.75% for your purchase. Yes, right here in today's environment, another new build investment property provider is offering a buy down to 4.75%. Yes, you heard that right. And we have another builder provider where our investment coaches have been sharing with you a 2.99% seller financing option. So is cash flow back? Yes, a lot of times it is.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:07:53) - The builders know that it's a pain point for buyers and our coaches and I hear a Gary know it too, So we have rubbed salve on the wound here, I suppose. 5.75% interest rates, 4.75 or even 2.99. At times you'll have to use the builders preferred lender to get those terms. Otherwise I like to use Ridge lending Group because they specialize in income property loans. There is even more to it. These builders are in business to move property, so take advantage of it. And besides buying down your mortgage rate for you like that, some are even waiving their property management fee for you for the first year, in addition to buying down the rate and don't know how long all this is going to last. So this could be a really good time for you to contact your investment coach. Your coach will help you shop the marketplace properties, tell you where the real deals are and tell you how to get those improbably low mortgage rates for income properties. Your coach guides you and makes it easy for you If you don't have an investment coach yet, just go to Marketplace slash coach and they're there to help you out.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:09:11) - Hey, it's really great to have the savvy and the experience of Rick Shaka back on the show today. His mind is always in the market. He's often doing these public speaking appearances informing audiences about it. He's been the executive vice president of markets at some of America's leading housing intelligence firms. We have so much to discuss that Today's episode is part one of two back to back episodes with Rick. This week, we'll discuss the direction of the economy. Next week, we'll go deep on the housing market. But even our discussion on the economy today is probably going to be viewed through the lens of having real estate investors in mind. So this intelligence is fresh and it is timely here in fall of 2023. But even if you're listening to this, a decade from now, in 2033, you are going to get lessons for all time. It's the economy this week and the real estate market next week. It could be a day or two until we have today's episode on Get Rich Education YouTube. But you can watch us there as well if you want the visuals and charts that complement our discussion.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:10:19) - Many of the sources that he cites today will be from Trading economics in the US Bureau of Economic Analysis. What's the present and future of the economy, especially as it pertains to real estate investor interest with Rick and I straight ahead. I'm Keith Reinhold in this is get rich education. Jerry listeners can't stop talking about their service from Ridge Lending Group and MLS 42056. They've provided our tribe with more lows than anyone. They're truly a top lender for beginners and veterans. It's where I go to get my own loans for single family rental property up to four Plex's So start your prequalification and you can chat with President Charlie Ridge personally, though, even deliver your custom plan for growing your real estate portfolio. Start at Ridge Lending Group. You know, I'll just tell you for the most passive part of my real estate investing personally, I put my own dollars with Freedom Family Investments because their funds pay me a stream of regular cash flow in. Returns are better than a bank savings account up to 12%. Their minimums are as low as 25.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:11:31) - K. You don't even need to be accredited. For some of them, it's all backed by real estate and I kind of love how the tax benefit of doing this can offset capital gains and your W-2 jobs income. And they've always given me exactly their stated return paid on time. So it's steady income, no surprises while I'm sleeping or just doing the things I love. For a little insider tip, I've invested in their power fund to get going on that text family to 668660, and this isn't a solicitation If you want to invest where I do, just go ahead and text family to 66866. This is real estate investment cogeneration. Listen to get Rich education with Keith Reinhold and don't quit your day dream. And you're going to get a fantastic market update today. And you're also going to learn lessons even if you're consuming this 5 or 10 years from now. Our expert guest was first with us here six months ago. He's been the executive VP of markets at some of America's leading housing intelligence firms. He was twice named to the Inman News Inman 100 most influential real estate leaders.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:12:54) - He is one of the country's most frequently quoted sources on real estate, mortgage and foreclosure markets. You've seen him seemingly everywhere CNBC, CBS News, NBC News, CNN, ABC News, Fox, Bloomberg in NPR got about just every letter of the alphabet in there on that one. Today, he's the founder and CEO of J. Patrick Company. They're a market intelligence firm for the real estate and mortgage markets. He has 20 plus years of experience in those industries. Hey, welcome back to Rick Saga. Thank you for having me, Keith. Happy to be here. It's an interesting time. Rick. I think some people are rather confused because you have such unusually low housing supply still. You have higher mortgage rates and we're careful not to call them high mortgage rates because we know historically they're pretty normal. And you have what I would characterize is a rather distinct regional variation in home price appreciation. So we're going to get some clarity today from that confusion. Now, if you're listening on audio only, Rick will describe the charts in a way that gives you a good experience.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:14:03) - If you're watching this on YouTube, go ahead and give us a like. So we really anticipate, Rick, your take on both the broader economy first and then the real estate market. That's exactly what we're going to go over today. And before we get started, I think you said something I'd like to emphasize a little bit. And this is something we talked about. I believe the last time we chatted is I've been saying all along that we were not going to see a housing market crash. We were going to see a correction of sorts and that the correction was going to be very, very localized. That the results you see in coastal California, in the Pacific Northwest, in markets that were overpriced, like Boise and Salt Lake City and Phoenix and Austin, we're going to be very different than what you saw on the East Coast, particularly the southeastern states, places like Tennessee and Florida and the Carolinas and virtually everywhere else in Texas other than Austin. So it's really worked out that way. There are some markets where we're seeing double digit price declines and other markets where prices continue to go up.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:15:05) - And we'll get into the national trends in a minute. But thought that was a really important point. Keith Yeah, Thank you for adding that, at least for a while there. Rick. It was one of the most unusual home price appreciation maps I have ever seen. There were some exceptions, but generally the nation east of the Mississippi River, you had rising home prices and recently west of the Mississippi River, you had falling home prices like a river divided it. It was really weird. To your point, it's normalized a little bit. I live in California. Speaking of weird and the pricing out here, the month over month prices and year over year prices went down for the first time in quite a while for about four consecutive months before normalizing in July. Now, even within California, you see different price trends depending on where you are in the state. But the point is really important for investors to remember that you almost threw the national numbers out, that they're important from a trend perspective, but you really need to become an expert in whatever market you happen to be investing in because the local conditions really determine how successful you're going to be.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:16:09) - Like the national outdoor temperature average is pretty useless, almost somewhat like the national home price average is. I guess the national home price average Still has some meaning to it though. Yeah, and you don't find quite as much variation in home price trends as you do in temperatures, but your points well taken. And again, it's important to be looking for economic trends. It's important to be looking for housing market trends and the markets that you're interested in investing in because that makes all the difference. So we're just going to talk about the general economic landscape of the United States, and then we're going to pivot into real estate and just what's going on with the housing market and getting the latest there. Yeah, why don't we jump right into it at this point, Keith, We're going to do a fall update on the housing market for this year. We're going to take a look at the economy. We'll take a look at what's going on in housing. I have a few slides to share on what's going on to delinquencies and defaults because I know a lot of investors are interested in foreclosure properties.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:17:11) - And then we'll have some closing thoughts and then you can chat a little bit more about some of the observations we're making in the market today. Let's start talking about that economy, including that part where some people anymore, year after year, they're always predicting this recession that never quite seems to happen. Well, we have predictions of a recession that are very much like predictions of a housing crash. And if you keep predicting that terrible thing long enough, someday you'll probably be right. It'll be right eventually. Just like a broken clock is right. Broken clock. It's right twice a day. So the GDP, the gross domestic product is the way that that most economists measure the strength of the economy. And the second quarter, this number was just adjusted downward a little bit, but we still had over 2% growth for the second quarter of 2023. That was a higher number than most economists had forecast. It was certainly a higher number than what the Federal Reserve was expecting. But it really shows you the strength of the US consumer.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:18:09) - A lot of people probably don't realize that almost two thirds of the GDP is comprised of consumer spending. There's other factors that go into it business spending, government spending, productivity, trade and the like. But two thirds of it is consumer spending. So when you see the GDP showing strong numbers, it typically means that the consumer is doing pretty well. And that's an important consideration as we move forward. Yeah, that's right. One of those reasons consumers are spending is because we're in this economy where pretty much if you want to have a job, then you've got a job. Yeah. The headlines read about tech companies doing layoffs and mortgage companies doing layoffs. Bottom line is the most recent unemployment numbers we saw were 3.8%. I think we're getting a little spoiled by some of these low unemployment rates because people forget historically, anytime you were under 5% unemployment, it was considered full employment. And the fact of the matter is there's still more jobs open than there are people looking for work. There's about 9.5 million open jobs in about 6 million people who are looking for work.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:19:11) - So employers have to compete with each other for those employees. And so these low unemployment levels are actually one of the things that's causing wages to go up, which continues to stoke inflation when there are more open jobs than there even are workers that makes employers want to entice employees with higher pay. Yeah, they need to do that to keep employees on the payrolls and they need to do that to hire new employees. So whether you look at hourly wages, which at the moment are up around 28, $29 an hour, or you're looking at annual wage growth, which is running around 4 to 5% a year. Wages are very strong right now. And this is the first time, Keith, in many years that I've been able to tell people that wage growth actually is running higher than home price appreciation for well over a decade. We saw home prices appreciate much more rapidly than we saw wages. And this is the first time in a while where that situation has been reversed. That's a really interesting takeaway, Rick.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:20:16) - Wage growth that's outstripping home price growth and that's going to be important going forward because one of the big headwinds that the housing market faces today is affordability. Despite what we just talked about, home prices nationally are running at all time high levels. We're going to talk about the cost of financing be much higher than it was just a year ago. And wage growth is the one positive in that category. As wages continue to grow and if home prices settled out a little bit, affordability ultimately will be a little bit better for potential homebuyers. Average wages at 28 to $29 an hour, Americans are basically making a dollar every two minutes now yet could be worse. And that varies, again, market to market, shock to job, but it shows you what's going on on average, partly because of this, consumer spending continues to be very strong. But one of the the real unusual situations we're looking at today is that there's usually a direct correlation between consumer confidence and consumer spending. And the more confident consumers feel about things, the more willing they are to spend money, particularly on big ticket items like cars and houses.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:21:24) - And that was all true. And the correlation held true until we hit the pandemic. And as we started to come out of the first wave of Covid, you saw consumer confidence start to go up, but then it came back down as we had subsequent waves of Covid. Then we had the war in Ukraine that we had high inflation and all sorts of other odds and ends. And consumer confidence has really never recovered back to pre-pandemic levels while consumer spending has continued to go up. And part of that is pent up consumer demand. We still hear people talking about supply chain delays, trying to order appliances and the like and having to wait for months. Part of it is all the stimulus money that the government poured into the economy during the pandemic and probably overstimulated the economy to a certain extent. One of my economist friends refers to what the government did in terms of stimulus, is trying to stuff $15 trillion into a $3 trillion hole. And the numbers may be a little lost. But think the visuals is image is kind of good.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:22:25) - But this disconnect we're seeing between. How much money consumers are spending and their relative low confidence scores is a red flag of sorts in a couple of ways. It's a red flag, among other ways, in that if consumer confidence doesn't recover, consumers ultimately could pull back on spending, and that really could ultimately lead us into a recession. Consumer spending outpacing consumer confidence. There are other two other red flags with this consumer spending, and we'll cover them pretty quickly. What is that? Consumer credit card use is at an all time high in the last quarter. For the first time ever, consumer credit card use topped $1 trillion. And the concern here is that consumers in a high cost of living environment may be tapping into credit cards to make ends meet. That's not a good scenario and ultimately is not a scenario that would end well. So part of what we're seeing kind of backstopping or enabling consumer spending is an increased amount of credit card use. The other red flag, Keith, is that consumer personal savings rates have gone down below historic averages.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:23:33) - So we hit an all time high in savings rates during the pandemic when the government sent out stimulus checks and unemployment benefits were enhanced. And candidly, there wasn't a lot consumers could buy. So they socked away a lot of this money post-pandemic. We saw savings rates drop down to almost historically low levels and they haven't come back much up from that. So the two red flags that we really are looking at right now, that could be indicators of trouble ahead for the economy are record level credit card use and lower than average savings rates. And again, both of those suggest that families who are sort of on the margins financially might be tapping into credit cards, might be tapping into their savings to make ends meet. In fact, I read some recent research that suggests that on average, most households have higher credit card debt than they have savings. It's not a great scenario, and this is consistent with many sources citing the fact that between 60 and 70% of Americans live paycheck to paycheck. Yeah, and it almost doesn't matter how high that paycheck is, which is a little bit counterintuitive.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:24:43) - I remember doing an interview on CNN years ago when Evander Holyfield mansion was being foreclosed on. It was a $30 million mansion outside of Georgia with two bowling alleys, swimming pool, indoor boxing rinks, basketball courts, the whole nine yards. I had to explain to the reporter that just because you're wealthy doesn't mean you're not living paycheck to paycheck. It's just sometimes there's more zeros to the left of the decimal point. Their cost of living tends to be much higher. So expenses are keeping up with income. All right, Expenses keep up with income. What's been going on in terms of consumer spending, in terms of wage growth, in terms of the GDP being strong has all contributed to inflation. And we had the highest inflation rate in 40 years. Not too long ago, we were up over 9% inflation year over year. And the Federal Reserve has taken very aggressive actions to try and get inflation under control. The primary tool they use is raising the Fed funds rate, which is basically what sets the rates on all short term interest.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:25:44) - And they've raised it more rapidly and higher than it pretty much any time in history. If you go back to the 80s, they actually raised the Fed funds rate higher because inflation was completely out of control then, but not as quickly as they did this time. So typically what you see is something more like what the Fed did say back in the 2015, 2016 period, where inflation ticked up a little bit. So they raise the Fed funds rate a little and they waited a while to see what kind of impact it would have. Then they raise it a little bit more and it's kind of a step by step process until they feel that inflation is peaked and they can then drop off the Fed funds rate. This time they raised it at higher increments they'd ever done before and much more rapidly. The good news is it does seem to be having its effect. The most recent inflation numbers are around 3% year over year, which is close to the Fed's target rate of 2% year over year. And a lot of the inflation rate that is reported on is housing costs.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:26:42) - And most of the housing costs are actually rental rates or what the Fed refers to is the rental equivalency. If you have a mortgage. And what we have seen is rental rates have gone back down from ridiculously high, asking prices. A year or so ago, it wasn't unusual to see an asking rent 15% higher than the prior rent rate. And that's in a market where the usual increase is 1 to 4%. So it was just completely off the charts. Those numbers have all come back to normal. And in some markets, we're actually seeing slight declines in year over year rental asking prices. The reason the Ric is bringing rents into the inflation discussion here is because rent and something called owners equivalent rent are a substantial contributor to the. They comprise more than a third of the CPI basket. Exactly right, Keith. And thank you for reminding me why I started this dissertation. The fact is that that decrease in rental costs has not hit the Fed's inflation numbers yet. There's about a full year lag in the housing numbers that the Fed uses in its CPI analysis and what's going on in the real market.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:27:52) - So if the Federal Reserve does nothing else, these housing costs get caught up. We will see inflation come down a little bit more. A lot of us are hoping that the Fed is done with its increases because of what's happened historically. Historically speaking, if you go all the way back to World War Two, the Federal Reserve not counting this cycle, has raised the Fed funds rate 11 times to get inflation under control. Eight of those times it's waited a little bit too long or it's waited for inflation until inflation got too high and it was a little bit too sticky and they had to overcorrect. And that ultimately steered us into a recession. There were three times once in the 60s, once in the 80s and once in the 90s where the Fed acted proactively to try and get inflation under control. And in those three cases, they were able to steer us into a soft landing and avoid a recession. In this case, they've already admitted they waited too long. They admitted that inflation got much higher than they expected.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:28:48) - It certainly wasn't as transitory as they'd hoped. So the likelihood is that they've already overcorrected and we will see something of a recession. They may get lucky this time. They may have actually walked the tightrope correctly. And assuming they don't continue with this aggressive course of action, they may have actually managed to work us into a soft landing this time. Yeah, and that is a terrific history lesson that you gave us, Rick. I often like to tell my audience about when you want to predict the future direction of something. I'd like to take history over hunches. It's easy to have a hunch that something's going to go a certain direction. But you look at history. You talked about basically how the Fed was late to identify inflation because they had called it transitory for a while, so they started hiking too late. Now, maybe they've overhyped or maybe they haven't. But if they have, maybe they will need to lower them too quickly. If they don't have that desired soft landing. The economists that follow right now are split about 5050 on whether we'll actually see a recession coming out of this cycle.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:29:51) - It was more like 8020, looking for a recession just a few months ago. Right. The economy is slowing a little bit. The last jobs report had about 187,000 jobs created, which was a good number, but it was lower than what we've seen in recent reports. So the economy slowing down, but not going to full stop or going into negative terms is an indication that maybe we do escape a recession. Good news, by the way, is even if we do have a recession, the rest of the economic measures that you look at are also strong, that it's very likely it would be a very short and very mild recession, and unemployment probably wouldn't get over about four and a half or 5%. So that's something to keep in mind as you go forward. You talked about history, Keith. I big on that too, history as a predictor of what might happen. Yeah. The other thing that points to a recession is something called a yield curve inversion. And without getting too inside baseball on people, people track the yield on a ten year US Treasury and they track the yield on a two year US Treasury and typically your yield on a short investment like a two year Treasury is lower than your yield on a ten year or longer investment because there's more risk involved in the longer time period and so forth and so on.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:31:07) - Every now and then, the bond market senses a disruption in the force. Darth Vader is looming over the market and you see these things switch places and suddenly the yield on a ten year US Treasury is lower than the yield on a two year US Treasury, and that's called a yield curve inversion. Now yield curve inversion doesn't cause a recession, but the last seven times we've had one, it's correctly predicted that a recession was coming and this current period we're in is one of the longer and deeper inversions that we've ever seen. So again, if you look at history as a predictor of the future, this yield curve inversion points toward us having a recession at some point before we get through the cycle. And I know yield curves can confuse a lot of people. If you're the listener or the viewer here, make a very long term loan to a friend, well, you'd want to get compensated with a higher interest rate for that higher risk amount than if you made a short term loan to a friend and he was paying you back.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:32:04) - Tomorrow, you might not charge him much of any interest at all because there's more certainty that you're going to get paid back. But that condition has been inverted, where when you make the long loan to the buddy, you're compensated with a lower interest rate yield. That is what is known as a yield curve inversion. Yeah. And I think yield curve throws people off. If you just think of it in terms of the yields, that probably makes it simpler. But again, if you're looking at recession predictors, these are the two. That I typically look at. And that's kind of important to know if you're going to be investing in the housing market because recessions can have an impact on the housing market. Rick thinks there's a likelihood that the Fed has already overcorrected with too many interest rate increases. If we do have a recession, Rick believes that it's most likely to be mild without many layoffs. Rick and I, we actually seem to agree on a lot of things. We see a lot of things the same way.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:33:03) - Maybe it would be more interesting for you if we disagreed a bit more to stay up on the latest moves in the real estate market. You can follow Rick Saga on X, formerly known as Twitter. His handle there is simply Rick Saga. Well, Rick made a Darth Vader reference there. And, you know, much like the original Star Wars movie had the sequel, which was called The Empire Strikes Back. You know, that was one sequel that some people liked more than the original. And that is atypical because usually people like the original more. But The Empire Strikes Back was a fantastic sequel, and I think that could happen here next week. Rick and I are back together for part two of two, the sequel. We are probably going to analyze and break down the state of the housing market and the future of investment real estate. And we should go on for twice as long on that as we did for today on the economy. So therefore, next week is kind of like the Empire Strikes Back, although I don't expect that next week Darth Vader is going to cut off Luke Skywalker's hand like what happened in the movie.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:34:10) - That just wouldn't be proper. And we're clearly not into improprieties around here.

 

Darth Vader (00:34:18) - You are unwise to lower your defenses.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:34:23) - Oh, Luke lost his hand this week. Not next week. Well, that's not even the scene where Luke loses his hand, But, hey, that totally worked. So. Getting back to real estate here, you need properties to be an investor. The builders know that higher mortgage rates are a pain point for buyers. Our coaches and I hear a know it too. So we have. Yes. Rubbed salve on the wound 5.75% interest rates, 4.75% or even 2.99%. And at times you're going to have to use the builder's preferred lender in order to get those terms. But really some remarkable Bibles that we've negotiated for you. So take advantage of it since I don't know how long that is going to be around. In fact, I'll even bring up those rate by down terms to Rick Saga next week and get his take to help you out on the cash flow side. We also have access to properties that would make good mid term corporate rentals in the southeastern US midterm rentals.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:35:27) - They often have higher cash flow than a traditional long term unfurnished rental. For any and all of that, contact your investment coach, you're probably working with one by now. They'll help you shop the marketplace properties, tell you where the real deals are and tell you how to get those improbably low mortgage rates for income properties. Your coach guides you and makes it easy for you If you don't have an investment coach yet, just go to Marketplace. Com slash coach and they're there to help you out until next week I'm your host Keith Winfield. Don't quit your Adrian.

 

Speaker 4 (00:36:08) - Nothing on this show should be considered specific, personal or professional advice. Please consult an appropriate tax, legal, real estate, financial or business professional for individualized advice. Opinions of guests are their own information is not guaranteed. All investment strategies have the potential for profit or loss. The host is operating on behalf of Get Rich Education LLC exclusively.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:36:36) - The preceding program was brought to you by your home for wealth building. Get rich education.



Direct download: GREepisode466_.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 4:00am EDT

Why is gold even worth anything in today’s modern world? Isn’t it just a lump of metal? 

In fact, I tell today’s guest that I believe gold is a poor wealth creation vehicle.

Our guest is Dana Samuelson, Founder and Owner of American Gold Exchange. He’s one of the most influential, pedigreed and respected names in the gold industry.

Major central banks have been hoarding gold recently—like Russia and China. Last year, central banks bought the most gold on record. We discuss why.

A recent survey found that only 11% of Americans own gold.

The case for owning gold: no counterparty risk, millennia of value, liquidity, limited supply, it’s like “money insurance”.

The case against gold: storage burden, no yield, few industrial applications, difficult to lever.

Though gold is historically a poor wealth *creation* vehicle, it’s excellent for long-term wealth *storage*. Dana generally agrees with me there.

Most gold that’s been mined in world history still exists today.

Learn how to identify fake gold. 

Dana discusses how you can store your gold.

You effectively pay “closing costs” on bullion. I describe.

We also quickly cover: silver, platinum, and palladium.

Resources mentioned:

Show Notes:

www.GetRichEducation.com/465

American Gold Exchange:

www.AmerGold.com

info@amergold.com

1-800-613-9323

Get mortgage loans for investment property:

RidgeLendingGroup.com or call 855-74-RIDGE 

or e-mail: info@RidgeLendingGroup.com

Invest with Freedom Family Investments. You get paid first: Text ‘FAMILY’ to 66866

Will you please leave a review for the show? I’d be grateful. Search “how to leave an Apple Podcasts review” 

Top Properties & Providers:

GREmarketplace.com

GRE Free Investment Coaching:

GREmarketplace.com/Coach

Best Financial Education:

GetRichEducation.com

Get our wealth-building newsletter free—

text ‘GRE’ to 66866

Our YouTube Channel:

www.youtube.com/c/GetRichEducation

Follow us on Instagram:

@getricheducation

Keith’s personal Instagram:

@keithweinhold

Direct download: GREepisode465_.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 4:00am EDT

Today’s guest, Shawn Finnegan, failed in California real estate investing pre-2008. But in 2019 he listened to GRE, came back, and succeeded.

He now benefits from $2,000 in monthly residual cash flow from 11 Memphis income properties. He wants a fourplex next.

Shawn and his family moved from Los Angeles, CA to Costa Rica where he now lives financially-free.

He’s a former abdominal model, appearing on magazine covers. He invented “The Anchor Gym” home gym system.

By listening to GRE, he had the confidence to invest with our “Financially-Free Beats Debt-Free” mantra.

“Don’t Quit Your Daydream” resonates with him most. 

Resources mentioned:

Show Notes:

www.GetRichEducation.com/464

The Anchor Gym:

www.TheAnchorGym.com

Get mortgage loans for investment property:

RidgeLendingGroup.com or call 855-74-RIDGE 

or e-mail: info@RidgeLendingGroup.com

Invest with Freedom Family Investments. You get paid first: Text ‘FAMILY’ to 66866

Will you please leave a review for the show? I’d be grateful. Search “how to leave an Apple Podcasts review” 

Top Properties & Providers:

GREmarketplace.com

GRE Free Investment Coaching:

GREmarketplace.com/Coach

Best Financial Education:

GetRichEducation.com

Get our wealth-building newsletter free—

text ‘GRE’ to 66866

Our YouTube Channel:

www.youtube.com/c/GetRichEducation

Follow us on Instagram:

@getricheducation

Keith’s personal Instagram:

@keithweinhold

Direct download: GREepisode464_.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 4:00am EDT

More homeless people have been created due to the housing supply crisis. Homelessness is up 11% since last year, per the WSJ.

The opioid crisis, consumer inflation, and NIMBYism have contributed too.

California has the most homelessness on both a total and per capita basis.

States with higher housing costs have more homeless people.

I share our poll results: “Should we pay to house the homeless?”

Are you a NIMBY? We find out today.

We can increase housing supply with rezoning, construction training, and lower mortgage rates.

The cycle of investor emotions led to wild investing manias. It was tulip bulbs in the 1600s Netherlands and Beanie Babies in the 1990s United States. 

I discuss exactly why “buy low, sell high” is more difficult than it sounds.

Timestamps:

The correlation between homelessness and the housing market [00:00:00]

Discusses the relationship between the housing market and the increasing problem of homelessness in America.

Investing manias and lessons from history [00:00:00]

Explores the phenomenon of investing manias and the lessons that can be learned from historical examples.

The tight inventory market conditions and potential solutions [00:04:56]

Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist of the National Association of Realtors, discusses the tight housing market conditions and suggests tax incentives to increase housing supply.

Timestamp 1 [00:10:32]

Affordability of moving to different cities and the proposal of a tax incentive for real estate investors.

Timestamp 2 [00:11:49]

Discussion on the housing supply crisis, mortgage rates, and the homeless population in the US.

Timestamp 3 [00:14:14]

Increase in homelessness in America, reasons behind it, and the correlation between housing prices and homelessness rates.

The impact of high density housing on quality of life and home value [00:21:12]

Discussion on the potential negative effects of building high density housing near single family homes, including reduced home value, increased traffic and noise, and loss of nearby open space.

Alternative solutions to increase housing supply and reduce homelessness [00:23:30]

Exploration of alternative measures to address homelessness, such as trade training for the homeless and relaxing excessive safety requirements in home building.

Giving real change to the homeless [00:25:50]

Encouragement to give directly to homeless shelters or soup kitchens instead of giving small change to individuals on the street, with the concept of "give real change not small change" explained.

Note: The timestamps provided are approximate and may vary slightly depending on the podcast episode.

The Origins of Tulip Mania [00:31:37]

Tulips were introduced to Europe in the 1500s and became a luxury item for the affluent. The cultivation of tulips locally in the Netherlands led to a flourishing business sector.

The Tulip Bubble [00:32:55]

By 1634, tulip mania had swept through the Netherlands, with the demand for tulip bulbs exceeding supply. Prices reached exorbitant levels, and futures contracts were being bought and sold.

Lessons from Tulip Mania [00:37:53]

Tulip mania serves as a model for financial bubbles, with similar cycles observed in other speculative assets like beanie babies, baseball cards, NFTs, and stocks. It highlights the dangers of excess, greed, and speculation without tangible value.

The cycle of investor emotions [00:44:32]

Explanation of the different stages of investor emotions, from optimism to panic, in relation to stock market investing.

The peak of the stock market [00:46:43]

Discussion on the peak of the stock market being the point of maximum financial risk and the difficulty of selling at the right time.

Real estate as a stable investment [00:51:56]

Comparison of real estate investment to speculative bubbles, highlighting the stability and income stream provided by real estate.

Explains how the integration of HOA (Homeowners Association) helps maintain uniformity and cleanliness in the rental property investing world.

Details about the upcoming real estate event [00:38:31]

Promotion of a live event where listeners can learn about new construction fourplexes and have their questions answered in real time.

Resources mentioned:

Show Notes:

www.GetRichEducation.com/463

Get mortgage loans for investment property:

RidgeLendingGroup.com or call 855-74-RIDGE 

or e-mail: info@RidgeLendingGroup.com

Invest with Freedom Family Investments. You get paid first: Text ‘FAMILY’ to 66866

Will you please leave a review for the show? I’d be grateful. Search “how to leave an Apple Podcasts review” 

Top Properties & Providers:

GREmarketplace.com

GRE Free Investment Coaching:

GREmarketplace.com/Coach

Best Financial Education:

GetRichEducation.com

Get our wealth-building newsletter free—

text ‘GRE’ to 66866

Our YouTube Channel:

www.youtube.com/c/GetRichEducation

Follow us on Instagram:

@getricheducation

Keith’s personal Instagram:

@keithweinhold

 

Complete episode transcript:

 

Welcome to Get Rich Education. I’m your host, Keith Weinhold. America’s homeless problem has become FRIGHTENING. I describe how that correlates… with the housing market. 



Then, investing MANIAS. What drives people to spend more for one tulip flower bulb than they would for an entire luxury home? 

 

And lessons you can learn that’ll benefit you the rest of your life from other manias throughout history. All today, on Get Rich Education.  

___________

 

Welcome to GRE! From Seaford, DE to Carmel-by-the-Sea, CA and across 188 nations worldwide, you’re listening to one of America’s longest-running and most listened to shows on real estate investing. Along with plenty of ongoing hot takes on wealth mindset and the real estate economy. 

 

I’m your host, Keith Weinhold. 

 

See, the crash in the SUPPLY of available American homes is bad and it isn’t just creating more upward prices, it’s a contributor to homelessness. 

 

Let’s talk about some of the drivers of homelessness, understand the problem a little more, how many homeless people ARE there in America, and then… what can we do about it?

 

As you’ll soon see, one prominent real estate industry influencer actually suggests that you actually SELL your rental single family homes in order to help serve the homeless. More on that shortly. 

 

Also, I have the results from a GRE Instagram Poll. The poll question is: “Should we pay to HOUSE the homeless?” 

 

And the answers that you - the GRE listeners gave… actually surprised me. I’ll give you those super-interesting poll results later, because I have more to explain there.

 

But first, what IS a homeless person? Let’s define it. I think most anyone knows that since it’s a person without a home, it’s thought of as living on the street.

 

Really, then, that person might not be homeless but “houseless” in a literal sense. Even if they live in a tent under a bridge, that is then, their home. Though it might be INADEQUATE housing.

 

More accurately, the unsheltered or undersheltered population could be more apropos.  

 

Then there’s vagrancy. A vagrant is defined as a person without a settled home OR regular work… who wanders from place to place and lives by begging.

 

So vagrants are PART of the homeless population then. This all helps DEFINE what we’re discussing.

 

Now, the lack of available American housing supply - especially the affordable segment - is OBVIOUSLY a big contributor to homelessness.

 

For example, anymore, how many builders even construct a new-build entry-level home for $200 or 250K? Practically nobody… anywhere.

 

And just how bad is the supply problem now? Well, the NAR has been tracking housing supply since 1982 and it just hit its lowest level ever this summer - EVER - and that’s in 40+ years of tracking. 

 

That’s one reason why just last week, it was announced that Warren Buffett is making a big bet on housing by investing in homebuilders.

 

Now to keep consistent with the same stats I’ve been reporting to you for you, to update that, again 1-and-a-half million available homes is the baseline supply. That’s the long-term “normal” per the FRED Active listing count.

 

And through last month, it’s still under 650,000. That is STILL a housing SUPPLY crash of 57% from its peak of 1 ½ million.

 

I want you & I to listen to this upcoming piece together. This recent interview with NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun is from the 8th of this month.

 

Yes, HE is the one that basically wants you to sell your SF rental properties. And he makes his case for an inducement to get you to do this. (Ha!)

 

He’s not proposing anything COMPLETELY ludicrous. It’s REALLY interesting. Listen closely for that.

 

This about 5 minutes in length and there’s a lot of material here within this clip - a nutrient dense piece, so I’ve got SO much to say about this when I come back to comment. 

 

[Yun clip] 

 

Yeah, the NAR Chief Economist there talking about how, much like I have for years, great opportunity is in the Midwest and Southeastern parts of the US. 

 

With this greater ability for people to work from anywhere, when people move in from the pricy coasts, it’s sooo affordable to them.

 

Moving from Manhattan to Cincinnati feels incredibly affordable. 

Moving from San Francisco to St. Louis feels like you’ve upgraded from serfdom to a kingdom.

Moving from Boston to Jacksonville feels like a total life makeover.

 

That’s why, here at GRE, we’re focused on properties in those INbound destinations. 

 

Before I continue, especially for those outside the US, I know that it seems a little odd that Ohio and Indiana are in what we call the Midwest when they’re actually in the northeastern quadrant of the nation.

 

But the fact that they ARE midwestern states is rooted in history and in cultural tradition.

 

So, getting back some new angles on the housing supply crisis.

 

Lawrence Yun proposed that a tax incentive be introduced to unleash the inventory of SF rentals from individual REIs. 

 

And says that there are over 20 million single-family housing units that are rented out. 

 

If we reduced or canceled the capital gains tax & just got 1% of that inventory on the market, he states that that would help.

 

Well, yeah, but even that then would only put about 200,000 units of the market - and they’d get snatched up so fast.

 

Now, if mortgage rates come down to say, 5%, it would unleash both housing demand AND supply. 

 

Both - like Lawrence Yun says. So it’s not apparent that that would help this shortage, if both demand and supply go up.

 

In a nation of about one-third of a BILLION people now - that’s how I like to express it this year - America now has one-third of a billion people… also known as 333 million - how many do you think are classified as homeless?

 

As you think about that - as you think about how many of America’s 333 million Americans are homeless, this homeless population figure that I’m about to share with you is from HUD and it’s through last year, so it’s their latest year-end figure. 

 

And I’ll tell ya, it’s hard to believe this number. The Department of Housing and Urban Development states that about 582,000 Americans are experiencing homelessness.

 

Now, how HUD does this is that their number is a snapshot of the homeless population as of a single night at the end of January each year. 

 

The total number of people who experience homelessness for SOME PERIOD each year will be higher than that.

 

I just did the math and then that means that just 1 in every 572 Americans are homeless. C’mon. Do you believe that? Only one in every 572 Americans are homeless?

 

I might believe that it’s something like more than 1 in 200. What are your thoughts?

 

Even HUD would probably concede that there are shortcomings in that stat and that it’s only a starting point.

 

And over the last decade, according to HUD, the homeless population is little changed… apparently until just this past year.

 

Homelessness is surging in America. The number of people experiencing homelessness in the US has increased 11% so far this year over 2022. That would be the biggest jump by far in equivalent government records beginning in 2007.

 

Now this 11% homeless jump is according to a WSJ analysis of hundreds of smaller & local agencies. 

 

Most  agencies say the alarming rise is because of the lack of affordable housing and rental units, and the ongoing opioid crisis.

 

Inflation is part of that affordable housing problem. Inflation widens the disparity between the haves and have-nots.

 

To cut some slack to census-type of surveying, homelessness can be hard to measure. Some live on skid row, some live in the woods, some homeless people live in their cars. 

 

Some aren’t interested in being counted. Others are essentially invisible.

I mean, if someone’s between jobs and needs to couch surf at their aunt and uncle's place for three months, are they homeless or not? So, to be sure, there’s a lot of leeway in those numbers.

 

One in 572 as homeless - that should just be a minimum - a starting point in my opinion.

 

Now, homelessness broken down by STATE is really interesting.

 

California at 171,000, has the most of any state, more than double of next-most New York, and then Florida is third.

 

But let’s break that down by rate - on a per capita basis. So… think of this as the highest CONCENTRATION of homeless:

 

Washington DC has 65 homeless per 10,000 people. That’s not really a state though, so…

 

#1 on a per capita basis is STILL California, with 44 per 10,000. So California leads in the nation in homeless on both bases then - both absolute and relative.

 

The second highest rate is Vermont. 

Third Oregon

Fourth Hawaii

Fifth is New York

And then numbers 6 through 10 on the most homeless per capita are Washington, Maine, Alaska, Nevada, and Delaware.

 

Now, strictly anecdotally. You’ve probably seen just what I’ve seen in the last year-plus - more visible homeless people in your city and other cities.

 

The state with the FEWEST homeless of all 50 states is Mississippi - and see, housing is quite affordable there. MS is one of the most affordable states for housing. 

 

There is at least SOME correlation between your cost of housing and homelessness.

 

Recently on our Instagram page, and the handle there is easy to remember - it’s @getricheducation - if you want to participate in future polls, we ran a poll on homelessness.

 

Here is the poll question that we ran - and I’d like you to think about your answer to this too.

 

“Should we pay to house the homeless?” 

 

That’s the question. 

 

And in polling, the way that the question is phrased, of course, can skew your answer. 

 

See, if instead, we phrased it as, “Should the government house the homeless?” you might have more ‘yes’ answers - even though it’s the same question - because you FUND the government. 

 

But the question as we phrased it: “Should we pay to house the homeless?” - it also showed a photo of vagrants on a street curb under the question.

 

Here we the results, which surprised me, to: 

Should we pay to house the homeless?

 

Those answering “Yes” were just 6%

The no’s were 45%

But we also had a third option: “It’s complicated”. 48% answered with that option.

 

So again, just 6% of you said we should pay to house the homeless and 45% said “no”. “48% said it’s complicated”.

 

In a way, that makes sense to me since we have a largely entrepreneurial, self-made type of audience. I thought that might have happened.

 

But what surprised me is in how emphatic it was. It was a landslide. 7 to 8 TIMES as many of you said we should not pay for the homeless as those that said we should.

 

Well, the reason that I added - and I’m the one that ran the poll myself - they’re quick to do. I added the paying to house the homeless “It’s complicated” option because it IS complicated… that WAS the most popular answer.

 

I mean, why should you go to work and pay to house a stranger that has no income because he or she doesn’t want to work?

 

But what if they’re disabled and they can kinda work but not really work… or a zillion other complications. 

 

Substance abuse is obviously a big problem that keeps homeless people homeless… and there’s a substantial thought paradigm that says, if they’re an abuser, then why would I pay for THEIR housing?

 

Substance abuse is just one reason that there is a population that’s VOLUNTARILY homeless. They don’t want to have to comply with a group home’s ban on substances. 

 

I wanted to address the homeless problem somewhat today, because here we are on Episode 463 of a real estate show and this is the most that we’ve even discussed it.

 

I think the perspective it gives you is that it helps you be grateful for what you’ve got. 

 

But it’s abundance mentality here. You can be grateful for what you have and at the same time, grow your means.

 

What else would help with more housing supply which would also move us toward mitigating the homeless problem?

 

Well, we’ve already discussed a number of them so I’ll only go in depth with some fresh angles here.

 

Obviously, more homebuilding. We’ve done episodes on how 3D printed homes and shipping container homes are not quick, easy answers. Tiny homes might be but then you could get into a zoning density problem again.

 

Just last week, my assistant brought me this Marketwatch article that reported that the average American home size is shrinking just a little & that often times, new-build houses tend to be a little closer together.

 

That’s what gets us into relaxing zoning requirements. But you know something, OK, this is going to be interesting. 

 

This plays into NIMBYism. Not In My Backyard: communities saying that they don’t want high-density housing built next to them. 

 

Now, I think that there are a lot of critics of NIMBYism. But the criticism comes from people that live far out of that area and aren’t affected.

 

Let me just play a fun little experiment with you here. Let me paint a picture of a fictitious life for you and just… place yourself there.

 

Say that you live in a nice single-family home, with a quarter acre lot. It’s not a sprawling estate but you’ve got a good measure of privacy that way.

 

You’re in a SFH, quarter-acre lot and two car garage. That is classic suburbia.

 

And… just a hundred yards away from your home there’s a big, wide-open field where you walk your dog and use as a little makeshift golf driving range or whatever. Nice open space nearby.

 

Say you’ve got a fairly idyllic life here. It’s always been this way since you bought the home years ago.

 

Suddenly, in your neighborhood of all SFHs, you learn that they want to build a bunch of fourplexes in the nearby lot where you used to throw tennis balls to your dog.

 

What can that do to your quality of life & your home’s value, now that a bunch of new fourplexes and eightplexes were built nearby?

 

It reduces your home’s value because there are less valuable, high density properties nearby.

 

It also increases the amount of traffic & even noise in your neighborhood. Now you can’t use that nearby park anymore - it’s been all-built up with these higher-density apartments.

 

So, let me go back and ask - point blank - did you really want all those new high-density developments near your home?

 

If that made you uncomfortable, that’s NIMBYism. So it’s quite natural to evoke that feeling type. You’re just a human being.

 

How else can we increase housing supply to help reduce homelessness?

 

NOT with rent control. Over time, capping the amount of rent that a LL can charge gives property owners no incentive to improve their property and neighborhoods end up dilapidated.

 

We need more training for tradesman and laborers. How about training the homeless for that? But then someone’s got to pay for that training.

 

Another measure that’s become ridiculous is that we’ve gotta relax these excessive safety requirements in homebuilding. Now, some safety is good.

 

But when every single home - entry-level and all needs to have fire-rated shingles and fired-rated doors and GFCI outlets and smoke detectors in every room and carbon monoxide detectors all over the place, sheesh! Well, that raises the cost of housing for everyone.

 

In some earthquake-prone areas, you’ve got to have seismic restraining straps on your water heater or you can’t even sell your home. Do you know how big of an earthquake it would take to damage your water heater like that?

 

And an excessive safety PROPONENT might say, yeah, but did you hear about that one family that died ten years ago that would have lived if they had carbon monoxide detectors?

 

Well, the counterargument to that is, yeah, but what about all the homeless people that were exposed to the elements and died in the cold because they couldn’t AFFORD the more basic housing, the prices of which have escalated for all this excessive safety stuff.

 

Are you saying a middle class person’s life is worth more than a poor, homeless person’s life? That’s the counterargument. 

 

Again, some safety is good. But we’ve gone overboard in too many places - in housing & beyond.

 

Rising housing costs keep people homeless. A few weeks ago, I did that episode about escalating insurance costs.

 

I now own some properties that have extremely low mortgage rates and the insurance has gone up to the point where I pay more in monthly escrow expenses than I do principal & interest. 

 

But, hey. I’m not homeless, and if you’re listening to this, neither are you.

 

So when it comes to helping the homeless in the short-term, that campaign called, “Give real change, not small change.” - that really resonates with me.

 

Don’t give 5 bucks to a vagrant on the corner. That just keeps them showing up at that corner, plus they’re going to spend your 5 bucks on a cheap bottle of Monarch vodka.

 

Instead, if you’re going to give, give to a homeless shelter or soup kitchen. 

 

That’s what’s meant by “Give real change, not small change.” And that’s something actionable.

 

Coming up next, investing MANIAS. How wild it gets - paying more for a tulip flower than a SFH, shooting and killing someone over a Beanie Baby toy… and then I’m going to wrap it all up with what all this has to do with the cycle of your investor emotions.

 

Around here, we don’t run ads for the Swiffer. This week’s sponsors that support the show are people that I’ve personally done real estate business with myself and have benefited from. 

 

Ridge Lending Group specializes in INVESTMENT property loans in nearly all 50 states. Start your prequalification at: RidgeLendingGroup.com 

 

Then, for super-passive real estate returns, check out Freedom Family Investments. Right now, what you can do, is just text “FAMILY” to 66866.

 

I’m Keith Weinhold. You’re listening to Get Rich Education.

___________

Welcome back to the GRE Podcast. I’m your host and my name is Keith Weinhold. 

 

If you’ve got a friend or family member that you think would benefit from the knowledge drops here on the show, you can simply tell them to grab the free Get Rich Education mobile app.

 

That’s a convenient option for listening every week for both iOS and Android.

 

Today’s topics of homelessness and investing manias could very well bring a new audience here, so… 

 

A little more about my backstory. I’m from PA but got my real estate comeuppance in Anchorage, Alaska of all places & grew out nationally & internationally from there. I had humble beginnings and wasn’t born anywhere near wealthy. I had to figure out how to build it myself.

 

But see, if I were born wealthy, I wouldn’t have learned how to build it, and then I wouldn’t be of much help to you. Likewise, if you’re building it yourself, you’ll be able to help others too.

 

BTW, I was born in the same PA town as Taylor Swift. 

 

Though she & I don’t have much ELSE in common, I guess that she & I are both best-known for using a microphone.

 

Though I think that I’m about as likely to start using this microphone to sing into your ears like Taylor Swift does… as Taylor is to launch a real estate investing show.

 

For hundreds of years, the tulip has been one of the most-loved flowers in the Netherlands. It’s an enduring icon - as synonymous with the country as clogs, windmills, bicycles, and cheese. The tulip has a long and storied history - including the infamous shortage in the 1600s known as “tulip mania”. If you’re someone that has even a fleeting interest in investing, you should at least know what this is.

 

Tulips first appeared in Europe in the 1500s, arriving from the spice trading routes… and that lent this sense of exoticism to these imported flowers that looked like no other flower native to the continent.

It’s no surprise, then, that tulips became a luxury item destined for the gardens of the affluent. 

According to The Library of Economics and Liberty, “it was deemed a proof of bad taste in any man of fortune to be without a collection of [tulips].” Hmmm.

Well, following the affluent, the merchant MIDDLE classes of Dutch society sought to emulate their wealthier neighbors and also demanded tulips.

So to start out with, it was purchased as a status symbol for the sole reason that it was expensive.

But at the same time, tulips were known to be notoriously fragile, and would die without careful cultivation. In the early 1600s, professional cultivators of tulips began to refine techniques to grow and produce the flowers locally in the Netherlands. They established a flourishing business sector that persists to this day.

By 1634, tulipmania swept through the Netherlands. The Library of Economics and Liberty writes, “The rage among the Dutch to possess tulip bulbs was so great that the ORDINARY INDUSTRY of the country was neglected, and the population, even to its lowest dregs, embarked in the tulip trade. Now, everyone’s in - rich to poor.

It’s a little hard to say for sure how much people paid for tulips. 

But Scottish journalist Charles Mackay, wrote an extremely popular 1841 book - you’ve probably heard of this book - it’s called the Memoirs of Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds…

It does give us some points of reference such that the best of tulips cost upwards of $1 million in today’s money (but a lot of bulbs traded in the $50,000–$150,000 range). 

By 1636, the demand for the tulip trade was so large that regular markets for their sale - like a little Dow Jones Industrial Average - got established on the Stock Exchange of Amsterdam, in Rotterdam, Haarlem, and other towns.

It was at that time that PROFESSIONAL TRADERS got in on the action - that’s all that some people do now - is trade tulips… and everybody appeared to be making money simply by possessing some of these rare bulbs. 

Dutch speculators at the time spent incredible amounts of money on bulbs that only produced flowers for a Week—many companies were formed with the SOLE PURPOSE of trading tulips. 

To everyone, at the time, it seemed that the price could only go up forever.

Pretty soon, demand for tulips EXCEEDED THE AVAILABLE SUPPLY of tulips by so much that people were into buying futures contracts, basically saying, I’ll pay you this much money TODAY for a tulip that you provide to me in 3 years.

By the last 1630s, these futures contracts were like a crack that appeared in the price runup. Demand began to wane when people were just buying a token for a future tulip that hadn’t even started growing yet. 

People felt like they weren’t buying anything tangible anymore. That’s one factor that helped create an oversupply of tulips in the market and started depressing the prices. Supply caught up with - and exceeded - demand.

A large part of this rapid decline was driven by the fact that people had purchased bulbs on credit, hoping to repay their loans when they sold their bulbs for a profit. But once prices started to drop, holders were forced to sell their bulbs at any price and to declare bankruptcy in the process.

So people had begun buying tulips with leverage, using margined derivatives contracts to buy more than they could afford. But as quickly as the run-up began, confidence was dashed. By the end of 1637 is when prices began to fall and never recovered.

 

And the bubble burst.

Buyers announced that they could not pay the high price previously agreed upon for bulbs, and that made the market fall apart. 

While it wasn’t actually a devastating occurrence for the entire nation’s economy, it did undermine social expectations. The event destroyed relationships built on trust and people’s willingness and ability to pay.

It’s been said that “the wealthiest merchants to the poorest chimney sweeps jumped into the tulip fray, buying bulbs at high prices and selling them for even more.”

Well, this is what can happen - today it happens with financialization and nothing real backing up purchases.

Tulipmania is a model for the general cycle of a financial bubble. That’s what happened with Dutch tulips.

Now, here in more recent times, similar cycles have been observed in the price of Beanie Babies, baseball cards - I got caught up in the baseball cards as a kid, owning more than 100,000 baseball cards at one time, also non-fungible tokens (NFTs), and shipping stocks.

 

 

 

The example of tulipmania is now used as a parable for other speculative assets, such as cryptocurrencies today or dotcom stocks from around the year 2000.

So, when you hear someone likening an investment to a Dutch tulip bulb, now you’ll know what they’re talking about. It’s a symbol of excess, greed, and FOMO.

But there has been a good bit of more modern scholarship that tells you that tulip mania did indeed occur in the 1600s Netherlands. But that the tale has been exaggerated and it’s something that the upper classes of society were mostly involved in.

Now, that’s the Dutch tulip bubble. But for a more modern-day parable about an investing mania, there’s a new movie about the rise & fall of BEANIE BABIES that’s on Apple TV+.

These were little stuffed, plush toy animals that became more popular among adults than children.

The rise and fall of Beanie Babies—toys that people mistakenly thought would make them rich. The movie is called “The Beanie Bubble”. 

It’s a MOSTLY TRUE account of the lovable toys’ boom and bust in the ’90s -  comparable to the meme stock frenzies that took place during the Covid-19 pandemic.

These $5 pellet-stuffed plush toys had astronomical appreciation estimates: Stripes the Tiger, released in 1996, was predicted by collectors to surge from $5 to $1,000 by 2008. 

Forecasts like these were so enticing that one dad invested his kids’ college funds in Beanie Babies, thinking he’d resell them later for a hefty profit.

At the height of the frenzy, people were ruining relationships and committing felonies to get their hands on some of these sacks of fuzz.

  • Border officials confiscated more than 8,000 smuggled Beanie Babies at a US–Canada border crossing in 1998.

  • A West Virginia man shot and killed a former coworker in 1999 after an argument partly about $150 worth of Beanie Babies.

  • That same year, a divorcing couple couldn’t agree on how to split up their collection, so the judge made them divvy up the toys in person, right on the courtroom floor.

How did that all happen?

Barely anyone cared about Beanie Babies when a company called Ty Inc. launched them in 1994. Stores only got lines out the door once the toy’s creator, now-billionaire Ty Warner, began pulling strings to juice demand. Here’s what Warner did. OK, so here’s how you induce people into a speculative bubble.

  • He refused to stock Beanie Babies at Toys R Us and Walmart. Instead he created an illusion of rarity by only selling them at small toy stores and independent shops.

  • Even if you did find a retailer, every store’s supply of Beanie Babies was limited to 36 of each animal, so inventory restocks drew a crowd.

This, combined with Warner’s decision to start “retiring” certain animals in 1995, created artificial scarcity and a mass panic to stock up on Beanie Babies. 

Soon, an aggressive resale market was born, replete with magazines and blogs and even trade shows for these Beanie Babies.

One woman’s guide to the secondary Beanie Babies market got so popular that she was selling 650,000 copies per month and, on many days, she did two or three radio interviews before her kids woke up for school. Ty Inc. later gave her an award for boosting sales.

At Peak Beanie mania, Ty Inc. and legions of speculators actually made hordes of money:

  • The stuffed animals accounted for 6% of eBay’s sitewide sales in 1997 and 10% in 1998. Beanies averaged a resale value of $30—six times their retail price—but rare ones, like the Princess Diana bear, went for hundreds or thousands of dollars (and now you can find one online for $15 bucks).

  • Ty Inc. hit $1.4 billion in sales in 1998, which is what Mattel grossed in Barbie dolls in 1995. At the end of the year, Ty Warner gave all ~250 employees holiday bonuses equal to their annual salaries.

But most regular people didn’t sell their Beanie Babies at their peak price. And unfortunately for them, the hype subsided. Anticipating a drop in interest as more kids reached for Pokémon and Furbies, Ty Inc. announced it would stop making Beanie Babies at the end of 1999, and that poked a hole in collectors’ this-will-never-not-be-popular mentality and that sent demand plummeting.

There were no underlying fundamentals to Beanie Babies’ value. That’s all that I’ve got on that speculative craze.

 

So let’s review how this happened with both speculative crazes - Dutch tulips and Beanie Babies:

  • Investors lose track of rational expectations.

  • Psychological biases lead to a massive upswing in the price of an asset or a sector.

  • A positive-feedback cycle keeps inflating prices.

  • And soon, investors realize that they are holding an irrationally-priced asset.

  • Prices collapse due to a massive sell-off, and an overwhelming majority go bankrupt.

Now, much stock market investing is based off of buy low and sell high mentality. And stock investors can get caught up in similar crazes. 

 

But because many stocks are tied to productive companies, the stock investor deals with smaller bubbles. A lot of times, the stock price can double, triple, or even 10X even though that company is not even profitable.




Buy low & sell high. Well, that sounds easy. But why is this harder to do than it sounds? It's called the cycle of investor emotions.

 

It starts here with… optimism. Because you HEAR about 10% stock returns or people making money with Dutch tulips or Beanie babies. 

 

Let’s say that you aren't fully invested in the stock market. But some friends are, and they're achieving small gains.

 

Then comes excitement. The market is now up some more. Hey, what’s in motion tends to stay in motion.

 

More friends are telling you how much money they're "making". 

 

You're soon experiencing a full-blown case of FOMO—Fear Of Missing Out.

 

The next stage is the Thrill you feel. So you jump into the stock market fully, rationalizing with something like, "Hey, I'm a momentum investor". Sounds pretty good, I guess.

 

Now that you’re in, it actually feels fantastic to you for a short time. You figure that some days, you're making more from stocks than your job. Winning activates dopamine. 

 

Dopamine is a brain chemical that’s known as the “feel-good” hormone. It gives you a sense of pleasure. It also gives you the motivation to DO SOMETHING when you're feeling the pleasure. 

 

So then, you add MORE shares… at an elevated price until you are FULLY invested. Now everyone is "making money", even your Uber driver.

 

The next stage is Euphoria - The peak! As you can see, this is the Point of Maximum Financial Risk. 

 

OK, now, remember the simplicity of “buy low, sell high”?

 

Well then, savvy stock investors should now be SELLING here in my example - at the HEIGHT.

 

Now be “selling”? Leaving the party at its crescendo? Stopping the dopamine flow? Yes, exactly… and THAT’S why it’s so difficult. 

 

What happens after the stock market peak? Overbought, with bloated price-to-earnings ratios, the market soon drops 10% from its recent high. 

 

That’s what’s known as a correction - a drop of 10% or more. Now you feel a little ANXIETY. Your dopamine flow is stifled.

 

Next, you tell yourself, "I shouldn't be worried because I'm a long-term investor." It's down 15%. You're experiencing DENIAL & FEAR.

 

Now you're checking the Robinhood app almost hourly to see if it will recover.

 

Next, comes Desperation & Panic - Stocks are down 20%, that’s the definition of a bear market. You're devoting more mindshare to this each day than what's healthy.

 

Then there’s Capitulation - Down 30%, you finally surrender to a FEAR of FURTHER LOSS. You’re getting so sick of months of losing. You finally do it and cash out your stocks into a safe money market fund. Now you’re out.

 

And you rationalize and justify doing this because you tell yourself, "You know, at least when I wake up tomorrow, I'll know that I haven't lost money AGAIN. And THAT gives me certainty.” 

 

The next stage in the Cycle of Investor Emotions is Despondency - You realize that what you've done is the polar opposite of successful investing. It’s complete. You’ve now bought high… and then sold low. 

 

Next, stocks completely bottom out. But this is actually the Point of Maximum Financial Opportunity. Instead, you should be buying.

 

But you can’t. Because you’re experiencing the next investor stage - Depression. You're so full of contempt for the situation that the idea of actually buying at bargain-basement levels again is simply inconceivable. You've been burnt badly.

 

Then, there’s Hope & Relief - The market has begun ticking up after the crash. It soon should be clear that share prices are FAIRLY VALUED again. 

 

But you don't buy the recovery story. You wait until enough price growth occurs that the confidence and Optimism stage is felt again before you’ll even consider getting back in and buying.

 

And the entire pattern repeats.

 

That's the “cycle of investor emotions”. There's an average of 3-and-a-half years between each stock bear market, BTW.

 

Of course, we've been kind to call this all “investing”. It's more like speculating.

 

But here's the real problem—most investors THINK they're better than average stock pickers, so they keep playing this game. This effect has a name. It’s called illusory superiority.

 

It's like how at least 70% of people think they're better than average drivers, despite the statistical impossibility.

 

Even professional money managers fall prey to this! Fewer than 10% of active U.S. stock funds manage to beat THEIR benchmarks.

 

The renowned British economist and value investor Benjamin Graham once said: "The investor's chief problem—even his worst enemy—is likely to be HIMSELF."



Well, as real estate investors, we largely SIDESTEP the cycle of investor emotions for two main reasons.

 

Returns are more stable.

 

Real estate, we sidestep this emotional roller coaster. Not only do we have stable prices, but appreciation is one of just 5 ways that you’re simultaneously paid.

 

RE also has monthly income. Dutch tulips or Beanie Babies don’t pay you a durable monthly income stream. They don’t provide an income stream at all.

 

And finally, RE is a REAL asset that fulfills a REAL human need.

 

I hope that you enjoyed this journey through speculative bubbles today and how they play into human psychology and investor emotions.

 

Go ahead and tell a friend about Get Rich Education.

 

If you’ve got a friend or family member that you think would benefit from the knowledge drops here on the show, you can simply tell them to grab the free Get Rich Education mobile app.

 

That’s a convenient option for listening every week for both iOS and Android.

 

My name’s Keith Weinhold and I’ll be back with you right here… next week. Don’t Quit Your Daydream!

Direct download: GREepisode463_.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 4:00am EDT

Get our free "Don't Quit Your Daydream" Letter. Text 'GRE' to 66866.

Home prices fell three times since 1975. We explore the reasons why.

The homeownership rate is 66% today. (The long-term average is 65%.) I expect the homeownership rate to fall due to low affordability, which will increase renter households.

If you have dollars in a savings account that pays 5% interest, I describe why you’re losing prosperit.

Our Investment Coach, Aundrea & I discuss the state of the real estate market.

Then we discuss our upcoming live event for new-build Utah fourplexes. They produce cash flow, have great tenant amenities and come with built-in equity. This area is extremely fast-growing: Register here.

Timestamps:

National Home Prices Fall and Causes [00:00:01]

Discussion on the historical trends of national home prices, the causes of price falls, and the impact of the 2008 global financial crisis.

Housing Affordability Crisis [00:00:50]

Exploration of the current state of housing affordability and the impact of the pandemic on home prices.

Upcoming Real Estate Event [00:01:44]

Announcement of an informative live real estate event that listeners are invited to join.

The current state of housing affordability [00:11:45]

Discussion on the challenges faced by first-time homebuyers due to higher prices, mortgage rates, and lending requirements.

Homeownership rate trends [00:13:11]

Analysis of the historical homeownership rates, including the impact of aging population and low affordability on the rate.

Future outlook for homeownership rate [00:19:40]

Prediction of a decline in the homeownership rate below the current 66% due to poor affordability and increasing number of renters.

Rental Market Overview [00:24:10]

Discussion on the current state of the rental market, including cash flowing properties, stable prices, and limited inventory.

Demand for Investment Opportunities [00:26:14]

Exploration of the demand from investors who are looking to invest their existing equity and the regions they are interested in, such as the Southeast and Midwest.

New Build Income Properties [00:28:14]

Introduction of a provider offering new construction fourplexes in the Intermountain West, discussing the market growth, population demographics, and amenities of the properties.

The opportunity for new build properties in a fast growth area [00:34:59]

Discussion on the benefits of investing in new construction properties in a rapidly growing area with good cash flow.

The role of HOA in maintaining property values [00:36:04]

Explains how the integration of HOA (Homeowners Association) helps maintain uniformity and cleanliness in the rental property investing world.

Details about the upcoming real estate event [00:38:31]

Promotion of a live event where listeners can learn about new construction fourplexes and have their questions answered in real time.

Resources mentioned:

Show Notes:

www.GetRichEducation.com/462

Join our Utah fourplexes live event:

GREwebinars.com

Get mortgage loans for investment property:

RidgeLendingGroup.com or call 855-74-RIDGE 

or e-mail: info@RidgeLendingGroup.com

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Complete episode transcript:

 

Welcome to GRE! I’m your host, Keith Weinhold. Historically, just how often DO national home prices fall… and what causes it? 

 

Then, learn more about how TODAY’S housing affordability is absolutely awful. Then, our informative live real estate event that you’re invited to join. All today, on Get Rich Education.

__________

 

Welcome to GRE! From Pennsylvania’s MONongahela River to Mono Lake, CA and across 188 nations worldwide. I’m Keith Weinhold and you are listening to our one big weekly show. This is Get Rich Education.

 

"Real estate never goes down." 

 

Yeah, a handful of people actually told me those five exact words in the mid-2000s decade. “Real estate never goes down.”

 

Of course, 2008's Global Financial Crisis (GFC) and Mortgage Meltdown proved them ALL wrong.

 

And ya know what, I've never heard one single person utter those words since!

 

Late last year, national home prices took just a small dip for a few months on a m-o-m basis. That’s not something that often happens though.

 

So as minor as THAT was, that’s the event that actually precipitated the creation of this segment of our episode.

 

There’s a colorful chart that provides a… terrific visual of the month-over-month shifts in US home prices, per Case-Shiller, dating back to 1975. And if you’re one of our “Don’t Quit Your Daydream” letter subscribers, you got to see it last week.

 

Winston Churchill said, "The farther backward you can look, the farther FORward you can see." 

 

I don’t know that I’ve contributed anything quite that proverbial to the world on that exact subject yet. 

 

I just say that when it comes to future expectations, I favor "history over hunches".

 

So, before we look at WHY home prices historically fall, first of all, why go back to 1975 when we’re looking at a history of home prices. Why that slice of time, 1975 to present?

 

Well, that’s almost 50 years. It’s two generations, so it stops just short of your grandfather’s generation which was back when the dollar was still pegged to gold.

 

Here's what we can we learn from almost 50 years of home price history on a relatively untethered dollar:

Nominal home prices usually rise, but not always. This is NOT inflation-adjusted. That’s the first takeaway. Of the 500 to 600 little rectangles, that’s how many months there have been since 1975, they’re nearly all blue, which means prices rose.

Before we center on the red areas, which is when & where prices dipped…

The next thing I can tell you is that it shows that home prices are remarkably stable.

A SEASONAL fluctuation is quite apparent. Year after year, home price growth is weaker in winter and stronger in summer.

But do you know how many times national home prices have dipped since 1975? Any idea?

It is… three. Three periods of falling prices in the last… 48 years. Those periods were the erstwhile Global Financial Crisis period from 2007 to 2011, then that tiny dip that occurred in the last few months of last year. 

That was due to a late pandemic slowdown.

Before I tell you about the other time, that third time, that so few discuss, let me tell ya, the 2008 GFC went deep red. Most markets had losses of 20% or more.

I WAS an active RE investor at that time.

And that downturn was caused by irresponsible lending, rampant speculation, and an OVERsupply of housing. That’s well documented.

Look around today, and we don’t have any of those conditions today. Today it’s tough lending standards, no wild speculation, and oppositely, as you know, it’s that STARK UNDERsupply of housing.

But few people seem to know about an earlier attrition in prices. It was a mild early '90s downturn. It was really small, just a percent or two per year in a lot of places, but it persisted for more than 5 years.

I think a lot of people DON’T KNOW about that small early ‘90s downturn, that’s why before the Global Financial Crisis, they said what we all know to be false, “Real estate never goes down.”

The start of the ‘90s. That’s before my time - I mean, I was alive but not old enough to be investing, so I had to do some research about what caused prices to circle the drain just a little.

And to boil it down, it occurred for two main reasons - it was from defaults created by high household debt and also, adjustable-rate mortgages kicking in, making those homeowners pay higher rates - and some couldn’t pay it.

So as we look back like Winston Churchill to get lessons from history, I like to look at today’s landscape and see if we have any of those two early ‘90s conditions.

High household debt? Well, rather, really this era’s aberration is the opposite condition. Today it’s households sitting on a lot of cash and equity.

And then the second reason for the early ‘90s price dip - adjustable rate mortgages kicking in. 

Well, that is affecting the commercial space, not the residential side, where homeowners have now been long accustomed to FIXED rate debt. 

Now, before we look into the future of home prices - and I’ve got some good stats there…

To summarize, the top takeaways from 48 years of looking at monthly HP growth are that:

  • Prices typically rise, not always

  • Prices are remarkably stable

  • Prices rise more in the summer than the winter

  • And that historically, let’s distill it down to three - three chief culprits for falling prices are an OVERsupply of homes, irresponsible lending, and a distressed borrower

Now, with housing, people tended to use the word “uncertainty” a lot - really, constantly, ever since the pandemic began in 2020. 

Now, I think that we can finally say that the clouds have begun to clear. Though, of course, we never have 100% clairvoyance.

Most everyone is confident that the majority of interest rate hikes are done, inflation has come down, mortgage rates are back at historic NORMS right now actually, and home prices are rising at historic NORMS again too. 

You have all this money sloshing around the economy that is still fueling consumer wealth from the pandemic.

All this money sloshing around AGAINST a low housing supply, and with more economic certainty. 

All this really has a lot of people more bullish than I’ve seen in a couple years.

Homebuilder confidence is really surging right now.

And looking into the next year, more and more analysts are now forecast increasing national home prices.

 

Fannie Mae recently revised their forecast upward to 3.9% appreciation for THIS YEAR.

 

CoreLogic now expects prices 4.3% higher from June of this year to of next year. And Zillow expects 6.3% price appreciation over this same time period.

 

And, our core investor areas have just kept climbing and really didn’t experience last year’s slowdown at all.

 

I guess this isn’t necessarily good news, right? The bad news might be that there’s no price BREAK.

 

Higher RATES still didn’t break the market.

 

Now, I’ve heard some analysts at real estate research firms speculate that if INTEREST RATES fall in the next year with all these other favorable conditions that 10% HPA is possible.

 

I’d say, that’s speculative alright. It’s so hard to predict future interest rates that I’m not willing to do it.

 

And like I’ve shared with you here, which is contrary to what people USED to believe, it’s that:

 

Mortgage rates really don’t have that much to do with home prices!

 

So when it comes to home prices over the next couple years, I think that the most commonsense expectation is slow price growth and stability.

 

Now, just wait until you see what’s happening with the homeownership rate today. I want to share that with you shortly.

 

Before we get back to RE, let’s Zoom out for a moment and look at the broader investing landscape while we’re here at mid-quarter.

 

Bitcoin is getting less volatile than stocks. That’s one trend lately. Another way to say that though, is that bitcoin prices are in a period of historic stagnation.

 

Gold has fallen from the $2,000 an ounce mark that it touched recently.

 

Oil prices have been on a multi-month tear, but you know, when you look at it on an inflation-adjusted basis, which so many people forget to do, oil at under $100 a barrel feels inexpensive.

 

Elsewhere in investing, some online savings accounts have hit the 5% yield mark.

 

That might sound good when you consider that inflation has backed off. 

 

But as most agree that the CPI is understated, if you think that the true diminished purchasing power of the dollar is 5% and your savings account rate is 5%, aren’t you at least treading water?

 

Well, first of all, just treading water means that you aren’t going anywhere or growing. 

 

But you’re not even treading water. Because don’t forget that your interest earnings on savings accounts get taxed. 

 

So it’s good to hold some liquidity - always. But you’re likely underwater with a 5% savings account in this era.

 

Yes, on your interest earnings, you’re taxed at your earned income tax rate, between 10 and 37%. Say that you’re in the 32% tax bracket. 

 

Well then, real inflation is 5% and your 5% savings account only yielded 3.4%. 

 

On an inflation-adjusted basis, even if you happen to have a savings account with a yield that high, your inflation-adjusted return is negative 1.6%.

 

That’s why, here at GRE, we typically invest in vehicles that target returns VASTLY exceeding both inflation and taxes.

 

As much as that might hurt, you know who today’s real estate market is actually really bad for? Even worse for the saver that isn’t even treading water.

 

It is downright AWFUL out there for those wannabe first-time homebuyers.

 

They are looking at this triple-headed monster of higher prices, higher mortgage rates, and stringent lending requirements. And then if they overcome ALL that, they’ve got to compete for that tight supply.

 

It’s made affordability for people in THAT position really awful. 

 

In a lot of markets, a starter home is $400K. With your 20% down payment plus closing costs, that’s $100,000 out of pocket, right upfront, as well as your ongoing monthly payment… all for an asset that doesn’t generate income when it’s your HOME.

 

Well, that’s an insurmountable hurdle for a lot of people.

 

This low affordability moves people out of the homebuyer class and adds them to the ranks of the RENTER class. 

 

Well, there's our opportunity as landlords.

 

You aren’t preying on them. You’re risking your capital to provide good housing for them. 

 

But curiously, the HOMEOWNERSHIP RATE is actually just a touch higher than usual right now, despite souring affordability.

 

So, let’s take a look at this. And then I’ll break down what it means to you as well as where we’re headed.

 

Since 1965, the average homeownership since 65% and currently, it’s 66%, running a little high.

 

BTW, homeownership peaked at 69% in 2004—that's back when you could outright lie about your income, job, and assets, and still get a mortgage. Many people did just that. NINJA loans.

 

When you hear the acronym, NINJA loans, what that stands for is no income, no job, or assets.

 

Well, you either rent your home or you own your home. It’s one or the other. 

 

So then, today's 66% homeownership rate means that everyone else, 34%, are renters. 

 

When the homeownership rate drops, then you’ve got more renters.

 

The low point for homeownership was in 2016 at 63%. 

 

It’s grown since then, and you might wonder… how in the heck is homeownership above average today in the face of this low affordability? How is it 66%.

Well, there’s a few reasons for that and it’s not always intuitive. America’s population keeps AGING. 

And that skews figures… because homeowners tend to BE older.

Secondly, incumbents - those that already GOT their home have really low, affordable payments. They’re not going to lose their home & become renters. 

80% of borrowers have a mortgage rate under 5%. You’re really happy to stay put when your mortgage rate begins with a “4” or less - and you can also keep making the payment. 

It’s a payment amount that does not rise with inflation.

That introduces a lag effect in the stats. It’ll be a little while until this low affordability gets reflected in a lower HO rate.

There’s a low FORECLOSURE rate, under 1%. Americans can afford their payments and they have the motivation to keep making them.

Now, over on YouTube, I shared a great map with you, the Homeownership Rate by state and broke that down. Join us over there. On YouTube, we’re called “Get Rich Education”, of course. I host THAT show and it’s different from THIS show.

What’s the trend here? Well, HO is highest in low cost states like the Midwest and Southeast, and HO is lower in high cost states. 

WV has the highest rate at 78%... because it’s low cost. 

NY has the lowest HO at 54%... because it’s high cost. NYC drags down the number for upstate NY.

 

So where are we headed? In the future, I expect a NATIONAL DROP in the homeownership rate.

 

This is because few expect property prices or mortgage rates to fall significantly. Lending requirements should stay strict. 

 

So it’s the awful FTHB affordability that will continue to take homeownership lower. 

 

See, FTHBers are also exactly the type of people that often have student loan debt repayments to make… if they ever have to begin repaying them. 

 

That’s also going to make it tougher for people to clear that affordability bar. They’re going to keep being your renter.  

 

And that's why I expect the homeownership rate to plummet below 66% where it is now, and then below the long-term average of 65% by 2025 or 2026. That’s where we’re likely headed if market forces prevail.

 

Depending on who our president is in 2025, government relief programs are just about the only thing that I can see getting in the way of a declining HO rate.

 

Household FORMATION is high right now… because you have sooo many Americans between ages 25 and 40.

 

So that question you’ve got to ask is - is that new HH going to be formed as a OO residence or as a rental?

 

Increasingly, it’s gonna be a rental because of that continued poor affordability.

 

See, for a ton of people, if they didn't get their ultra-low rate mortgage the past couple years, then, well, it’s too late. 

 

That era is over and that’s why their affordability ship has sailed. That ship has passed. It’s gone.

 

And that's why more RENTERS are being made every single day.

 

So if you’re a LL, this is expected to both increase your occupancy rate AND the amount of rent that you can charge.

 

Carefully-chosen rental property is really where today’s opportunity is.

 

I’ve got more on that shortly, as I’m about to bring in one of our two Investment Coaches.

 

You know, you’re telling us that you find it so helpful to have free one-on-one coaching with them, either Aundrea or nuh-RAYSH. 

 

Both coaches have their MBAs. When you read their bios on our Coaching Page, they’ve got some impressive international corporate experience.

 

But they both live right here in the USA and they’re active REIs themselves - that’s really how they help get you started and connect you with the right market and property.

 

It’s an in-house conversation with an IC & I straight ahead and we’ll discuss how we can help you.

 

I’m Keith Weinhold. You’re listening to Get Rich Education.

__________________

 

Aundrea talked about cash flow. OK, that exists. Great. Yet, I still think of these as better for appreciation than cash flow over time. She’d probably agree.

 

Maybe you’re thinking a brand new construction duplex in the path of progress IM West could cost $1M or $2M, but no, this builder provides them for less than that. 

 

And then, of course, you’re probably going to finance most of that cost yourself too.

 

And, BTW, Aundrea did smile at my dorky joke about her loving rap music. A big smile that you couldn’t see through the audio-only podcast here. 

 

But, yeah. You didn’t quite hear a laugh. See, one prerequisite to laughing is that a joke actually be funny.

 

In any case, Aundrea and the provider are your two co-hosts on Wednesday.

 

The provider is a powerhouse of knowledge about not just real estate and demographics and fourplexes, but construction and financing too and everything that goes into it in order to optimize the investor experience for you. 

 

HE can answer questions in real-time for you.

 

It is almost time for the Beehive State to shine as Utah is front, center and under the stage lights on GRE’s Live Event in just two days.

 

You are cordially invited to join… as long as you don’t ask Aundrea about rap music. 

 

But, really. When you put this all together - a 4-unit building is the most that you can get with best financing terms, the cash flow, new construction, often this BUILT-IN equity at purchase time too, a fast population growth market, all inside a demographic population in Utah that’s young and has good incomes… it’s really quite remarkable. Quite a confluence.

 

We haven’t had an event for a product type like this before, and I don’t know if we’ll ever have an event quite like this again. 

 

Attend live to get your questions answered and get the first look at the inventory.

 

But if you can’t make it on Wednesday, then sign up anyway and we will effort to get the replay link for you.

 

You can do it all at: GREwebinars.com

 

Until next week, I’m your host, Keith Weinhold. DQYD!

Direct download: GREepisode462_b.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 7:20am EDT

Sharply higher insurance premiums are affecting property owners nationwide. It’s especially bad in: CA, LA, FL, TX and CO.

This is due to erratic weather (climate) and higher rebuilding costs. 

Phenomena like an increasing intensity and frequency of hurricanes, tornadoes, wildfires, and floods are sending some insurers out of business.

State Farm and AllState completely stopped issuing new homeowner policies in California.

Some areas are on the brink of becoming completely UNinsurable. In that case, the only sales that could occur with all cash buyers.

Learn three techniques to keep your skyrocketing insurance costs lower.

As you’ll learn today, landlords have more options than homeowners for navigating spiking insurance rates.

Then, listen to a CNBC clip along with me about how the end of ZIRP (zero interest rate policy) affects your life and investments.

Resources mentioned:

Show Notes:

www.GetRichEducation.com/461

Get mortgage loans for investment property:

RidgeLendingGroup.com or call 855-74-RIDGE 

or e-mail: info@RidgeLendingGroup.com

Find cash-flowing Jacksonville property at:

www.JWBrealestate.com/GRE

Invest with Freedom Family Investments. You get paid first: Text ‘FAMILY’ to 66866

Will you please leave a review for the show? I’d be grateful. Search “how to leave an Apple Podcasts review” 

Top Properties & Providers:

GREmarketplace.com

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GREmarketplace.com/Coach

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Complete episode transcript:

 

Welcome to GRE! I’m your host, Keith Weinhold. First, I’m going to help you make your real estate more profitable in the near term as I discuss how to deal with skyrocketing property insurance costs. 

 

Later, I’ll inform your strategy about your long-term, overall personal finance as we talk about what the end of free money means in this new era of higher interest rates. Today, on Get Rich Education.

____________

 

Welcome to GRE! From Tirana, Albania to Albany, New York and across 188 nations worldwide, I’m Keith Weinhold and you’re listening to Get Rich Education.

 

This is how real wealth is built in the real world with real estate. We aren’t day traders. We are DECADE traders.

 

And we do that with the right mission. Let’s invest directly in America - own real property in American neighborhoods, and provide housing that’s clean, safe, affordable and functional.

 

And when we all do that, we can abolish the term “slumlord”.

 

Conversely, what do some people think about first? Themselves.

 

[RIC FLAIR CLIP]

 

Ha ha ha! Over the top with some vintage Ric Flair. There’s nothing wrong with living well. But that best comes as a byproduct of serving OTHERS first.

 

Let’s talk about the SKYROCKETING cost of property insurance. Why it’s happening, what MY experience is, and what you can do to manage it.

 

First of all, and I hope that none of my insurance agents are listening, but why would you ever work in the insurance industry? 

 

And I kid. But that’s got to be one of the most boring industries to work in.

 

What 15-year-old ever says that when they grow up, they want to be an insurance broker? Nobody.

 

But, in any case, it is a STABLE industry because there will long be a need for insurance.

 

But, I mean, even your customers - the policyholders like us - we don’t really want insurance.

 

Insurance ads all say the same thing: “Switch and save.” No one has seen an advertisement from this industry that says, “Upgrade for better coverage.” 

 

That’s because so many people just want the minimum coverage and want to get on with their lives… until a calamity occurs.

 

But now, the insurance industry has gotten SOMEWHAT more interesting lately, the effects of which center around erratic weather… maybe you like calling it climate change, maybe you don’t.

 

But suffice to say, if erratic weather persists, then it’s no longer erratic, rather, it is, in fact, a pattern, and then, a change in a region’s climate.

 

The intensity & frequency of storms is increasing. I’m talking about weather phenomena like hurricanes, floods, wildfires, tornadoes, and even high snowfall. 

 

Inflation also means that there are rising COSTS to rebuild. 

 

And RE-insurance costs are higher. Yes, your insurance company gets insurance from insurers themselves, called re-insurance. Re-insurance companies insure insurers.

 

Everyone knows State Farm’s jingle. “Like a good neighbor, State Farm is there.” No, State Farm is gone. 

 

State Farm is the largest home insurer in CA. So they’re the largest home insurer in the most populous state.

 

Well, you might have heard a few months ago that they’re completely stopping issuance of new home insurance policies in all of CA. And AllState followed shortly afterward.

 

Persistent wildfires are a culprit there.

 

Insurance companies can’t make any money so it’s hard to blame them.

 

Well, why don’t they just, say, double their premiums? Some sure have. Others can’t because of competition for lower rates from other companies. 

 

But a lot of SMALLER insurance companies - including many in Florida - have done just that. They’ve gone out of business… and when there are fewer companies in business - less competition - that’s when rates can get jacked up high.

 

Insurance rates are up the most in many of the states that have the greatest incidence of hurricanes, floods, and wildfires.

 

What are the states where rates are rising most? 

 

CA, LA, and FL. And after that, TX and CO too, and some other states. 

 

TX is one state that’s subject to both hurricanes and tornadoes - hurricanes in SE Texas - Galveston, Houston and Corpus Christi.

 

And tornadoes in NE Texas, like Dallas-Fort Worth.

 

So, when hazards happen, losses can occur. That’s why your lienholder - your mortgage holder - forces you to have insurance. They require you to have it because they’re not willing to take that risk.

 

Louisiana’s problems with insurers REALLY compounded a few years ago when Hurricanes Delta, Ida, and Laura hit the state. That created a true crisis in Louisiana’s insurance market. 

 

A lot of insurers just left with $24B in insurance claims during that period. Others in Louisiana stopped issuing new policies and increased the premiums on the existing insured homeowners.

 

Now, I’m going to center on the homeowner’s insurance problem in Florida soon, because Florida is a popular investor state, I own a lot of rental properties in Florida and I’ll tell you about my personal insurance experience there shortly. 

 

When it comes to wildfires - which are often spurred by hot, dry, and windy weather conditions, some areas are on the brink of becoming completely UNinsurable. 

 

California has a bunch of regions like that. And other places like Bend, Oregon and Boulder, CO are in danger of insurance denial because the homes are surrounded by forest. 

 

If that happens there, the only resale market for the properties would be to all-cash buyers, unless the state ever comes in to buy them out since people were ALLOWED to build there in the first place.

 

Now, notice that I haven’t mentioned earthquakes yet. Earthquakes aren’t related to the surface weather like hurricanes and wildfires and these other things are.

 

Earthquake insurance, which many people have in places like CA, WA, OR and AK is often a completely SEPARATE policy from your standard homeowner’s policy and EQ insurance is prohibitively expensive.

 

Besides that, their deductibles can be high, like 10 or 20%. If an earthquake completely destroys your $500K home and you have a 20% deductible…

 

… then to even make a claim, you’d need to come out of pocket $100K first - plus you’d be paying high premiums all that time just to have that condition!

 

Anchorage, AK had a big magnitude 7.1 earthquake back in 2018. 

 

I was in Anchorage when it happened and I told you about that here on the show back then. I was pretty shaken up. 

 

At the time, I owned dozens of apartment units in Anchorage. I don’t anymore. I had, maybe $40,000 of out-of-pocket cosmetic damage that I had to pay from that one earthquake.

 

Lienholders DO not make EQ coverage a necessity, and 25% of Anchorage homeowners had coverage before the quake. It went up to 35% afterward.

 

Fortunately, the top cash flow REI areas don’t tend to be in the west coast of the United States.

 

So, how high have some of these insurance premiums gotten in states known for disasters?

 

Well, the average is about $225 per month in LA. In TX, it’s $250 per month on their average $300K home, and in Florida it’s about $325 monthly on a $300K home. 

 

Of course, that’s going to vary by what region of the state you’re in and distance from the coast and such.

 

One weather phenomena that I haven’t seen any evidence of in contributing to higher insurance costs is heat itself. 

 

This summer, Phoenix hit a new record for consecutive days that exceeded 110 degrees Fahrenheit. That went on for weeks on end.

 

But heat in itself, and its resultant air conditioner use and power load - is not something directly attributable to escalating insurance costs, unless power load problems start a fire.

 

Now, you keep hearing about climate migrants moving to more northerly places with access to a lot of fresh water like Minnesota, Michigan, and Wisconsin.

 

But these stories seem to be largely anecdotal and of little impact.

 

The faster-growing areas continue to be in the Mojave and Sonoran deserts - that’s Las Vegas and Phoenix - places with lots of heat, rising heat, and dry conditions. 

 

And despite what you might think, they’re not going to run out of water anytime soon. 

 

Those deserts actually have a lower incidence of natural disasters too, which is one reason why they’ve built new microchip plants in Phoenix. 

 

Climate migrants moving north might be a thing at some point - but it still is not.

 

Well, speaking of hot in-migration states, Florida has had a LIGHT hurricane season so far. But that’s not the kind of thing that we can count on for long.

 

Rates have gone up more than 50% throughout the state of Florida, with ALL insurance carriers. 

 

Carriers are either pulling out of the state (because its not profitable for them), or they’re increasing rates across the board, or they’re not renewing policyholders.

 

Now, I’ve had my rates hiked up on my Florida properties more than once. 

 

There, it’s often because an insurance company goes out of business due to too many claims, and then I have to switch to another landlord’s policy carrier that always has higher rates.

 

So here’s what happens. I get a notice in the US mail that my current insurer on a Florida rental SFH - call them Insurer A - is going out of business in 5 months and that I have 5 months to find a new insurer - call them Insurer B.

 

So I take a photo of that notice and forward it over to my Florida insurance agent and ask them to give me quotes for my new prospective Insurer B. 

 

Now, say that if you don’t do that. 

 

If you don’t ask your insurance broker or agent to get you a new policy, if you don’t act, here’s what happens.

 

Say that the 5-month deadline approaches and you still don’t have new coverage lined up.

 

Your mortgage holder, call them Wells Fargo or Chase, they’ll send you a notice in the mail and remind you that it’s required that you have insurance in place – because Wells Fargo or Chase doesn’t want to be on the hook for the risk… and if you don’t get a new insurer - Wells Fargo, say, will buy a policy FOR you & make you pay it.

 

And the insurance that they buy for you will have lesser coverage and cost way more.

 

It seems like, whoever the bank is, they always tell me that they’re going to buy me an ultra-pricey policy with Lloyd’s of London.

 

So again, it doesn’t entail too much work on your part. If your insurer is going out of business or just doesn’t want to issue you a new policy, share that notice with your insurance person and ask them for new quotes. That’s a quick, easy thing to do.

 

And then, when you switch insurance companies, your PM must submit photos of your rental home to the new insurer within something like 15 days.

 

Over the past few years, I think I’ve had Florida properties where the premiums have been hiked up steeply twice. I seem to remember a complete doubling a year or two ago.

 

More recently, I had 30% rate increases on some of my Florida rental properties.

 

So how much am I paying now? Well, on one Florida rental SFH that has a market value of about $300K, I’m paying $330 per month. 

 

Of course, for your long-term rental properties, your landlord insurance contract should provide what’s called “loss of rents,” coverage.

 

That’s something that OO homeowner’s policies don’t have. 

 

That means that if your property is damaged and your tenants are displaced, your insurer pays the fair market rent to you since the tenant won’t. That’s typically capped at 12 months.

 

On your STRs - like AirBnBs and VRBOs, the coverage that you want is called “lost business income” with no time limit. And that might take an upgrade to a commercial insurance policy for STRs.

 

Alright, so let’s get to something actionable. We are real estate investors for the production of income.

 

So amidst what are perhaps UNPRECEDENTED increases in insurance premiums these last few years, how do you navigate this, and what do you do to stay profitable?

 

Well, whether you’re an OO or a rental property owner, you can do things like make sure that your coverage is appropriate.

 

You can raise your deductible amount to reduce your annual premium, of course.

 

The more financially strong that you are, the higher you can make your deductible because the less a claim is going to impact you.

 

But as a rental property owner, you have a FEW LEVERS that you can pull that OOs cannot.

 

The big one - is that this is your cue to RAISE THE RENT.

 

Yes, higher insurance premiums point to raising the rent. 

 

Really, this is like a game of hot potato… and it is your job to pass along the potato. That’s all that you’re doing here.

 

See, the reinsurer raised rates on your property insurer.

 

Your property insurer is raising the rate premium on you, the property owner.

 

Now it’s your job to pass along the hot potato to the tenant in the form of a rent increase.

 

Then your tenant has to pass along the hot potato by asking their employer for a raise or finding new employment.

 

And it keeps going, now your tenant’s employer needs to pass along the higher labor cost in the form of raising consumer prices on the goods or services that they produce… and it continues throughout the economy.

 

That’s how inflation works.

 

It’s your job to pass along the hot potato.

 

What if the tenant leaves? Well, there’s always that possibility. 

 

But if they go to rent or buy a “like” property, it’s still going to have the same higher insurance cost that they’d have to pay.

 

For help with that, and this is the second time that I referred back to this recently, in Episode 449, just twelve weeks ago, I provided you with 12 ways to raise the rent. Again, that’s Episode 449.

 

You always want to provide a REASON to the tenant about why their rent is increasing, say 5% in this case for example.

 

Nothing beats the truth. Your insurance costs are higher. That’s the reason.

 

Now, you might be wondering, if, say, insurance costs just rose 30%, like they did on one of my own properties recently, then how is a 5% rent increase going to offset that?

 

That’s because your rent amount is multiples more than your monthly insurance amount.

 

If your rent on a property goes from $2,000 to $2,100, that’s just 5%, but it’s a $100 increase in your income.

 

If your monthly insurance cost goes from $200 up 30% to $260. That’s a $60 decrease in your income.

 

You have a $100 gain from rent and just a $60 deduction from your insurance increase, and you’ve more than offset it. It’s THAT effect.

 

Now, what if your numbers don’t work for raising the rent though? As an income property owner, you have other levers that you can pull that are less palatable as an OO.

 

That is, can you sell the property? If you’re in SFRs, there is a big buyer appetite for them.

 

And in just the past three years, there’s been so much appreciation that you might have a lot of equity such that you can trade it up for 2 SFRs.

 

Now, new-build properties in a place like Florida have substantially lower insurance costs than older properties, because new-build properties are built to more stringent wind resistance requirements.

 

So you might trade up your older, existing Florida property in this case for a new-build property that has lower insurance deductibles.

 

Insurance costs ALONE rarely drive investment decisions. But it’s the fact that you’d get to reposition dollars at a higher leverage ratio at the same time.

 

But now, if you’ve owned the property for, say 2 years or more, you might lose your ultra-low rate mortgage that you got a few years ago.

 

You need to run some numbers and see if it’s worth giving up your low mortgage rate in order to get more leverage and lower insurance premiums. That’s the trade-off.

 

See what works best for you.

 

So, your first lever is clearly to just raise the rent on your existing properties that have higher insurance rates.

 

To summarize what you can do to meet higher insurance premiums is:

 

#1 - Raise the rent. #2 - Tilt your portfolio into more NEW-BUILD properties in some markets, and #3 - Increase your deductibles.

 

They are the actionable takeaways that I really wanted to share with you today. 

 

Keep investing. Tweak your strategy where you need to. Be sure that your tenants are taken care of.

 

And after that, remember, that it’s common that when you have an insurance CLAIM, that you often profit from the event when your claim pays more than your actual losses were.

 

Coming up shortly, the 15-year Era of Money for Nothing is Over. How does this new era look and how do you adjust to it?

 

There is more real estate news and more that impacts your personal finances every week that we can cover in one big, weekly show here.

 

Strip Malls are Hot (yes, really) Strip malls are hot, Old Houses are Now as Valuable as New Houses, and Zillow predicts 6.3% HPA from June of this year to June of next year.

 

More details on stories like that, as well as my breakdowns of developments like that are in our Don’t Quit Your Daydream Letter. You can get it free. Just text “GRE” to “66866”. 

 

Actionable real estate guidance, breaking news, and a dose of my dorky, cornball humor are all in the letter.

 

Get it free by texting “GRE” to 66866. More next. I’m Keith Weinhold. You’re listening to Get Rich Education.

_____________

 

Welcome back to Get Rich Education. This is Episode 461. I’m your host, Keith Weinhold.

 

The United States is entering a new economic era. 15 years of access to nearly FREE MONEY has come to an end.

 

Let’s listen in to this terrific CNBC compilation where you’ll hear the voices of a number of economists, reporters, and directly from people that used to work at the Fed… on what this all means with the end of Fed Funds Rates at zero - the good and the bad.

 

Some familiar voices that you’ll hear include CNBC’s Steve Leisman.

 

And, near the end, Former Fed Chair Ben Bernanke.

 

This is about 12 minutes in length and then I will come back to comment.

 

[CNBC Clip]

 

Let’s remember that economies work slowly. There are lag effects. The Fed began hiking rates in March of 2022.

 

And higher rates are only starting their job, not finishing.

 

Today, higher insurance premiums and a higher cost of MONEY (which is what interest rates are) are trends to navigate.

 

With both, if you’re a landlord, you can raise the rent. 

 

Longer-term, have that 30-year FIRD. Just that plain, vanilla loan in most cases. Nothing fancy. 

 

That’s because, living in the US has many benefits, like stunning national parks, seedless watermelon, and pizza with cheese baked into the crust.

 

But it’s got something even better, even better than fixing your rate for 30 years. It’s that ability for you to refinance as soon as rates drop.

 

You get to alter the deal whenever it’s best for you whenever you’re in residential real estate.

 

Well, at the end of the show, I’ve learned that you’re often thinking “I want more. How can I get more content like this without having to wait until next week?”

 

I often like to leave you with something actionable at the end. Get our Don’t Quit Your Daydream Letter. I write every word myself. You can get it free right now. Just text “GRE” to “66866”. 

 

Until next week, I’m your host, Keith Weinhold. DQYD!

Direct download: GREepisode461_.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 4:00am EDT

In this podcast episode, Keith Weinhold and Kirk Chisholm discuss the differences between real estate and stock investing.

Kirk Chisholm is the Principal of Innovative Advisory Group. He provides his perspective as a wealth manager, emphasizing the control and lower risk offered by alternative assets like real estate. 

Learn the difference between risk and volatility.

We discuss risk-adjusted returns, liquidity, and the importance of understanding and managing risk. The conversation also covers cash flow, dividends, big tech stocks, and private mortgages.

Interest rates and inflation—we discuss their future. Kirk believes rates will stay at this higher rate for a long time.

Timestamps:

The Paradigm Shift in Interest Rates and Inflation [00:00:01]

Discussion on the new paradigm of interest rates and inflation and how it affects real estate and stock investors.

The Impact of Front Porches on Society [00:01:35]

Exploration of the impact of the disappearance of front porches on neighborhoods and communities.

The Definition and Management of Risk in Investments [00:05:50]

Explanation of how risk is defined and managed in different types of investments, including stocks, real estate, and alternative assets.

The difference between volatility and risk [00:10:21]

Explanation of the temporary price movements (volatility) and permanent impairment of capital (risk) in different investment assets.

The illiquidity of real estate and non-traded REITs [00:13:11]

Discussion on the illiquidity of real estate compared to publicly traded markets and the example of non-traded REITs during the 2008 financial crisis.

Importance of cash flow and dividends in stock investments [00:15:26]

Exploration of the two camps in stock investing: cash flow-driven investors and appreciation-driven investors, and the significance of dividends and cash flow in stock investments.

Dividend Stocks and Value Stocks [00:20:17]

Explanation of the difference between growth stocks and value stocks, with a focus on dividend-paying stocks.

Private Mortgages and Cash Flow [00:21:12]

Discussion on the benefits of investing in private mortgages and how it provides a passive income stream.

Default Rates on Hard Money Loans [00:25:48]

Exploration of the default rates on hard money loans and the industry's approach to mitigating risks for both borrowers and lenders.

The new paradigm of interest rates and inflation [00:31:32]

Kirk Chisholm discusses the shift in the economic paradigm from low interest rates and inflation to higher rates and a shrinking economy.

The impact of higher rates on mortgages and real estate [00:35:39]

Kirk explains how higher interest rates affect mortgage payments and housing affordability, leading to a decline in house prices.

The consequences of higher rates on corporate America [00:37:48]

Kirk discusses how higher rates can impact corporations, particularly those with short-term debt, potentially leading to bankruptcies and market clean-up.

Higher rates and recession correlation [00:39:55]

Discussion on the correlation between recessions and lowering of interest rates, and why it may not happen in the future due to high inflation.

Fed's focus on stable prices [00:42:48]

The Federal Reserve's prioritization of stable prices over high employment, within their dual mandate.

Interest rates and the economy [00:44:10]

The potential impact of higher interest rates on the economy, with a discussion on when the next recession may occur.

Resources mentioned:

Show Notes:

www.GetRichEducation.com/460

Innovative Advisory Group:

www.InnovativeWealth.com

Get mortgage loans for investment property:

RidgeLendingGroup.com or call 855-74-RIDGE 

or e-mail: info@RidgeLendingGroup.com

Find cash-flowing Jacksonville property at:

www.JWBrealestate.com/GRE

Invest with Freedom Family Investments. You get paid first: Text ‘FAMILY’ to 66866

Will you please leave a review for the show? I’d be grateful. Search “how to leave an Apple Podcasts review” 

Top Properties & Providers:

GREmarketplace.com

GRE Free Investment Coaching:

GREmarketplace.com/Coach

Best Financial Education:

GetRichEducation.com

Get our wealth-building newsletter free—

text ‘GRE’ to 66866

Our YouTube Channel:

www.youtube.com/c/GetRichEducation

Follow us on Instagram:

@getricheducation

Keith’s personal Instagram:

@keithweinhold

 

Complete episode transcript:

 

Keith Weinhold (00:00:01) - Welcome to. I'm your host, Keith White. As a real estate investor, you are highly cognizant of your cash flows to stock investors. Even think about that and how we've now entered a completely new paradigm of interest rates and inflation and how to respond today on Get Rich Education with real estate capital Jacksonville. Real estate has outperformed the stock market by 44% over the last 20 years. It's proven to be a more stable asset, especially during recessions. Their vertically integrated strategy has led to 79% more home price appreciation compared to the average Jacksonville investor since 2013. GPB is ready to help your money make money and to make it easy for everyday investors. Get started at GWB Real estate. Agree that's GWB Real estate. Agree.

 

Speaker 2 (00:00:59) - You're listening to the show that has created more financial freedom than nearly any show in the world. This is Get rich education.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:01:22) - What category? From Bogota, Colombia, to Wichita, Kansas, and across 188 nations worldwide. You are back in that abundantly minded place where financially free beats debt free.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:01:35) - And by now you might have already won the inflation Triple Crown. I'm your host, Keith Wild. Hey, Noah, is this a real estate problem? Philip Gulley, the author of Porch Talk. He said, I believe all that is wrong with the world can be attributed to the shortage of front porches and the talks we had on them. Somewhere around 1950, builders left off the front porch to save money, and we've had nothing but problems ever since. That's just the sort of thing that I think about now as you and I are enjoying the dog days of summer, as I trust that you are, you know, neighborhoods, property, it all used to be more wide open. The Pennsylvania house that I grew up in and that my parents still live in, it has a real front porch. And no one I mean, nobody has fences around their yard either. It is a real lemonade sipping chat with the neighbors vibe there that, well, seems to be more and more of a remnant of yesteryear.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:02:44) - I mean, gosh, from what I can see, there are more and more gated communities. Uh, people tend to get more concerned about security and that often means that they trade away freedom. Hey, well, our guest on the show today, he hits differently. And you're going to feel that because he's the principal of a firm that helps investors with stocks, bonds and mutual funds, as well as real estate investing. And it's not just REITs, real estate investment trusts, but more than that. And, you know, whenever he and I talk, we tend to get each other thinking in different ways, in shape, each other's opinions somewhat, as you'll probably see again today. He and I disagree on some things and we agree on others. I'm going to ask him about whether or not stock investors even care about cash flow. We'll be sure to get his insights on the direction of interest rates and inflation and more. Well, I'd like to welcome in our guest today he runs innovative wealth.com he's the principle and a wealth manager there at innovative advisory group.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:03:54) - They're based in Massachusetts but they advise well beyond any state borders. Hey it's been a few years. It's great to have you back. Kirk Chisholm Thanks for inviting me back. Keith. I was a little worried there didn't appear well in your show, but thanks for having me back. Yeah, well, it's been absolutely too long, and I really appreciate your perspective because they're with what you do. You're principal of a company that helps people invest in a big, wide palette of things, from stocks to private mortgages and some things with real estate and elsewhere. So you have this really broad view. So tell us what percentage of your business is is stocks, bonds and their derivative products like ETFs and mutual funds versus everything else? It's interesting because my industry is primarily focused on stocks, bonds and mutual funds. It always has been, probably always will be, in large part because they're easy to sell, They're publicly available information and everyone is can simply just click a button and get it done. So my industry tends to work towards lazy solutions or simple solutions.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:05:00) - Nothing wrong with that. You just have to know with what you're getting. It's funny, when we started our firm in 2008, we were doing a lot of private mortgages and we talked to the regulators at the time and they said, Oh, well, what percentage of your accounts in alternatives? Because we told them we did alternatives like what percentage of your accounts? And we said, Yeah, somewhere like 40 to 50%. You know, it probably ranges between 40 and 60. You could hear a pin drop in that room. I did pick the lady's mouth off the floor like she couldn't believe that. How quote unquote, risky that is. And she said the first question, she's like, are you serious? Isn't that really risky? And I started laughing and I said, risky? You mean like Worldcom, Enron, AIG, Tyco, You know, like Lehman Brothers, Bear Stearns? They just kept going on and on. She's like, all right, I get the point. And we had to define the concept of risk.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:05:50) - This is the part that your audience will appreciate, right? If you're investing in a company, it's been screened by the SEC. It's passed certain muster. It's SEC doesn't endorse it, but it's passed certain muster. You say, all right, I feel comfortable that this company's met the minimum criteria. That's not always the case. Right. Companies go bankrupt all the time. And we actually have a spike in bankruptcies most recently because of the economy. But if you look at piece of real estate, I can go walk up and touch it. I can go to the Registry of Deeds and see that I own it. I can talk to the maintenance guy or the property manager and see what's going on and have influence on it. I would say if you know what you're doing, there's a lot less risk. And I would say if you own a piece of gold, what's your risk? I could lose it. Somebody could steal it. The government confiscates it. That's pretty much it, right? It's not going to zero.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:06:37) - It's not going to the moon. It's just a rock. The way you define risk is really something that a lot of people don't spend time with is managing that risk. So a lot of what we've done is we've looked at it from a different perspective. What is the best investment given the criteria that we have, the markets we're in and the risk available? You know, what is going to do the best considering the risk as an example, Bitcoin or Ethereum or any sort of cryptocurrency, the risk is it could go to zero, right? It's not going to go below zero risk as you lose all your money or you might make 10 or 20 times your money, right? That is also possible. Both scenarios are probably on the extreme ends of probable, but either way, like you have to account for both scenarios and say is it worth it going to zero for me to make X amount of return? If the answer is yes, then it makes sense. If the answer is no, then don't invest in it or invest in a lot less of it.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:07:31) - So that's kind of how we look at risk and that's why we look across the board for alternative assets. We're very agnostic about the assets because it really just comes down to, is it a good investment or not? That's really the criteria we look at. Risk is what goes beyond the edge of your understanding. Think that's what applies to that conversation that you had that you brought up there earlier. Right. It's largely about one's risk adjusted return. You talk about with real estate how you have more control over an investment because you can get in there and understand it and change the operations of it in order to drive a return. And then stocks have this very efficient market where it's quick and easy to get in and out and things are more liquid. This very efficient market with real estate, there really isn't any app you can go on and be like, Oh, okay, well my duplex was up 3/10 of 1% this past week. That doesn't happen. That's part of the inherent inefficiencies with direct ownership of real estate, of course.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:08:32) - I would argue the point of efficient markets, the stock market is is not efficient, despite what the academics will tell you. It is more liquid. I would argue that real estate is illiquid, which is good and bad, right? If you need to sell, it's bad. If you're looking to buy and you don't need to buy, it could be really good. Stock market is very different in that it's claimed to be efficiently priced with all the known information at the given time. And the price is the price. And what I would argue is that's an interesting philosophical standpoint, but it's inaccurate, right? Because if all the information was known, then we wouldn't have volatility. But we do have volatility and the stock market is a forward pricing discount mechanism, right? So you look out six months and say, what's the market going to do? That's where the stock prices are six months from now, not today, six months from now. So whatever the market thinks is happening, they think it's going to happen then.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:09:26) - So if you look at interest rates, which I'm sure we'll get to, they're looking out six months and for the last two years I've noticed on the expectation of the yield curve, it's that, oh, rates are going to drop in the next 3 to 6 months and in 3 to 6 months it's going to drop in 3 to 6 months. Over and over, it keeps pricing out well, another 3 or 6 months. And I think that the market doesn't really look beyond that because it's really hard to predict. First of all, you can't predict the future anyway, but if you're probabilistically, going to try beyond six months is really hard because there's so many things that got to happen that changed the dynamics significantly. Talk about efficiency with stocks. I'm talking about how stocks are efficient and easy to liquidate. It's pretty easy to sell. And then over here in real estate investing, there is no panic selling because it takes quite a while to buy into sell. Therefore, that's some of the inefficiency of real estate compared to stocks.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:10:21) - We look at that through a liquidity perspective, right? So liquidity can be a good thing or a bad thing because when there's panic, selling, liquidity can lead to greater volatility like we see in stock. Yeah. And I want to point out two things here. So first is there's a difference between volatility and risk. And I think it's really important for people to understand the difference. So volatility is temporary price movements. It's how much the price fluctuates in any given day. Real estate investors don't see this right, But stock investors, Microsoft is up 5% yesterday. Nvidia's up like whatever, 70% of the day or whatever it was, 30 some odd percent in a day. That's volatility, right? You look at stock prices drop 30 plus percent in a short period of time. Technically, that should have been risk because the whole global economy shut down. But it turned into volatility because it went down and it came back up, actually exceeded the price of the start of Covid by the end of the year, which is insane to think about.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:11:20) - The whole world shut down. People are locked in their houses and yet the stock market is up. That is what I would consider volatility. Now, risk is what I would call a permanent impairment of capital. Now what that means is you buy a Beanie Baby at $100 because you think it's going to be worth a lot more. And then all of a sudden the Beanie Baby bubble crashes and never recovers and it turns into a $100 Beanie Baby into like a dollar. That's a permanent impairment of capital. That is a risk that you're not going to ever get your money back. You buy a I hate to swear on your show, but a beep coin that make up most of the cryptocurrency coins out there. They could all go to zero. I mean, you look at drawing a blank on the one with that. Elon Musk supports the dog dogecoin. Yeah, they claim this zero. It's a socially supported currency, but it doesn't have any value and they all admit it doesn't have any value. It's virtually worthless except for what people are willing to pay for it.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:12:15) - That has the potential to have risk in it because it could go to zero. But if I'm investing in GE, Microsoft, Apple, Johnson, Johnson, whatever, these companies that produce cash flow, they're solid companies with a long, long track record, they could certainly go to zero, no question. But typically the movements in price are volatility. Risk is when the chairman goes off, steals all the money and moves off to some island and people are left holding the bag saying, what's going on? You know, you look at AIG, Lehman Brothers, Bear Stearns, all those companies that basically made bad decisions, that is risk. That is not volatility. So it's important to understand the differences between the two, because if you don't, most people think of I am managing risk, I'm diversifying. No, you're managing volatility. Managing risk is completely different and you have to use different tools for that. Most people don't manage risk, they manage volatility. The other point I want to make is you mentioned the illiquidity of real estate.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:13:11) - And I want to point out an example which is kind of bordering the owning your own real estate versus, let's say, a REIT. I remember back in 2008, nine and ten when people were jumping out of the windows because they couldn't get rid of their illiquid non traded REITs. And I'm not a supporter of that of non-trade REITs or people jumping out of Windows. But in general, the non traded REITs market was interesting because technically they said you'd have quarterly liquidity, you could get a quarterly and normal times. That was true. They would just cash you out if you need money. However, when everyone's running for the door at the same time, they can't cash everybody out because they can't sell the property. So what do they do? They lock the doors, locked everybody in to burn alive. Well, the price went from, let's say, hypothetically, $100 down to $10 and people wanted out at any price. It didn't matter. They needed out. They need liquidity. Whatever it was, there were actually markets around.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:14:03) - You could buy people's shares of these non traded reach for like $0.10 in the dollar and people were willing to pay to discount 90% of the investment where you could have just walked in and purchased it and waited another five, seven years and you could have made 100 cents in the dollar. It's crazy. But that's one of the nice parts about real estate. And I'm using a security as an example because you can do that in real estate. But when you have the publicly traded markets, that doesn't necessarily happen, but it can happen in certain periods of time when the markets are completely irrational and everybody thinks the world is ending. Sure, that's a be greedy when other people are fearful, sort of seeing their I know their IT innovative advisory group. Since you do have this wide palette of offerings, you kind of have this broader view of things. I'm wondering, Kirk, a lot of people in that stock world, many of them concerned with cash flow or it might be dividend there, or are they even as interested in cash flow there with the kind of stock and mutual fund investments as they are over here in the real estate world where we're quite interested in cash flow? And then do they even take the dividends or do they just reinvest them, which is called a drip program dividend reinvestment program? How important is that to investors on the stock side? It's a good question.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:15:26) - So what tends to happen is people kind of fall into two camps, much like the real estate camp. Some people fall into the. Cash flow camp. Which is your camp? Which is my opinion. I think that's the best way to invest is cash flow appreciation. You're just taking a guess. But there are good amount of people that are appreciation driven. They don't look at cash, so they're happy to make zero cash flow for the expectation They're going to make lots of money and appreciation and look at them like, What are you thinking? Like, what if the cash flow declines? You're going to support the negative cash. Why do you own it? It's silly, but some people think that way. They think, Let's go for the appreciation. Let's roll the dice. Let's go. No whammies, you know? And what ends up happening is these people make mistakes because the real estate market, this usually happens at closer to the tops and people make bad decisions and they realize, oh, crap, I can't make this work.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:16:16) - I was trying to Airbnb this with a two cap, this not working. So now I need to sell this thing or I'm going to lose my shirt. I had these conversations all the time. So using that as an example, because that's where your audience will understand dividend investors the same. So a lot of people, when they're investing in stocks, they're looking at stocks as a way to make money. Most people want total growth, which really means in their mind, appreciation. What are the stock market do this week? What did it do this quarter? That's all people want to know. Well, what about the dividends? Well, actually, there was a time 40, 50 years ago when dividends mattered, you could get six, seven, eight, 9% dividends. Now, that's absurd to think about that. The only stocks that pay dividends of that nature are stocks that are highly speculative or the dividend is highly speculative. Market typically looks at dividends and if they don't trust the dividend will continue to get paid.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:17:08) - They'll actually discount the stock, which will make the dividend look real attractive. It'll suck people in to buy it and then they'll slash the dividend back to a rate that's normal. So people looking at dividend stocks, be careful because we're not in that environment where dividend stocks are all that attractive. If I can get a 5% close to zero risk US Treasury bond and I can compare that to a 2% dividend stock, I'll take the Treasury all day because it's close to guaranteed dividend stock. Maybe it goes up, maybe it goes down, who knows? But, you know, ultimately you're trying to solve a problem. The big challenge we have now, is any of this sustainable? Are the cash flows sustainable? Good value? Investors should be looking at cash flows. They should be looking at metrics and trying to find stocks that are at a good price that will pay them a handsome return over time. And the problem is, is we don't live in that environment much like the real estate market. It gets overheated because too many people are chasing too few properties and virtually everyone was putting all their money into 5 to 7 stocks on the Fantastic Seven or the Faang stocks or whatever you want to call it These days.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:18:18) - That name changes all the time. But the point is, you've got big tech that's driving most of the return this year. Think big tech made up 2,530% of the S&P 500 500 stocks. You have five stocks making up 25 to 30% of the index by size. And by return, it made up think the S&P was up 15%. And these 5 or 7 stocks made up 13% of that 15. Really crazy, crazy to think about. Right. But that's what people look at is the index. And the index is not necessarily accurate, but that's what people look at. So you have to gauge it by that. Most of the marketplace is chasing these appreciation returns. And like you have with real estate, you get the good with the bad, you chase appreciation. You can win or lose. I don't know where the future is going to be, but I know that if I'm chasing cash flow, I'm pretty certain I know where that's going. But if I'm investing in a tech stock that has negative cash flow, I have no idea where that's going.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:19:19) - Right. Could go up, could go down, who knows? But I look for stocks with good cash flow. I think if you're going to invest well, you want to find a legacy stock that you feel comfortable owning forever. Now, when it comes back to the Fang acronym, I tend to think Nvidia should be replacing Netflix in the Fang acronym about this time. But dropping back earlier when we were talking about dividends, I don't track this very closely, but last I checked, probably last year it seemed like the average dividend paying stock in the S&P 500 was something like 2%. Is that still about right? I think it's actually a little bit lower. I haven't looked at it in the last few weeks because it's gotten so low, it's almost not even worth looking at. I think last year was 1.77. As of right now, it's 1.47 on the S&P 500, 1.5%, which is insanely low for real estate investors. I think of the dividend yield in stocks as being synonymous with the cash on cash return in real estate.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:20:17) - But you said something earlier about dividends, Kirk, that I actually thought was the opposite way. I thought that dividend paying stocks tended to be kind of those older, stodgy or staid, like a utility company rather than a younger tech. Company. Yes, that is accurate. Yes, Most of the dividend stocks are what we would consider value stocks. So the terms growth, stock and value stock are actually don't mean anything. They're what everyone wants it to mean. What they tend to mean is growth Stocks tend to be stocks that are focused on appreciation. Value stocks are typically focused on cash flows or their stocks that are discounted, and you can buy them for good cash flow. But if you look at a stock like Microsoft, I mean, you got the dividend yield is about 75 basis points, 76 basis points as of today. So you're getting less than 1%. But Microsoft's one of the the Fang stocks, right, or Fang, whatever they're calling it now, they come up with a new acronym.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:21:12) - But some of these big tech Apple's fang of dividend so some of the big tech actually are paying dividends. Now what we're talking about, the production of cash flow or income from both stocks and real estate here. And one thing that I know you do in there and that you help investors with is private mortgages in producing an income stream that way. Can you tell us more about that? Is that where you have clients where you connect them with ways to make hard money, loans to real estate investors, for example? As we talk about here, I'm a big fan of cash flows and I have a few favorite asset classes and they're not the stock market, right? I love real estate. I love tax liens. Tax lien is by far my favorite. If you can get them the right way and the right price, which you can't, but if you could, that's one of my favorites for many reasons, but one of the ones that we do a lot of are hard money loans or private mortgages.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:22:05) - The reason I love it is because they're simple. If you're investing in real estate, it's not passive income. It's a business. You have to manage the business. You have a property manager, you've got tenants, you've got expenses, you've got taxes. All this stuff you have to deal with, which is fine. There's nothing wrong with that. But when people invest passively, it's not passive, right? It's active. It just happens to be a different business than one that you're selling widgets out of the corner store. If you're investing in private mortgages, you have to do your due diligence up front. But once you invest in it, you're done until you get paid back. It's like any sort of fixed income. It's a bond. It's fixed income is how I look at it now. For the past ten plus years, you couldn't get any rates on bonds, your fixed income, part of your portfolio, your treasuries, your corporate bonds, whatever you're buying, you're getting close to zero.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:22:54) - And there was a lot of risk. So we substituted these for our fixed income and you're getting 10 to 15% over the last ten years where the common rates and I like them because you're getting access to real estate. So real estate is backing the note. So it's a mortgage, right? So you're lending somebody else money at, let's say, 12% and they're going to pay you that 12% and give your money back at the end. And if they don't, you get their property. Now, personally, I don't want their property is too much headache because when I got to do foreclosure and go through all that, that's not the point. Some people do. Some people invest in hard money with the assumption they're going to own that property. And it's a great acquisition strategy. If you're so inclined. It's not you know, I have clients. I can't have that kind of business model. It's just too much of a headache for everybody. So we want people that are going to pay and pay on time and people are going to continually come back and I can work with versus having the lender investor that actually helps the borrower default so that they can get the property correct, which like I said, is a great investment strategy.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:23:55) - It's just not our investment strategy. And I think just like real estate, you can buy foreclosures, you can buy off MLS, you can build. There's so many different things you can do. Same thing with notes with paper. Paper is a great asset class if you know what you're doing. The challenge with private mortgages, hard money now is because everything is so expensive that these investors, these fixed and flippers investors would have. You can't make money. And I know there are people out there that are doing it. So it's not that it's not happening, but anybody I know that's really good at fixing flip or rehabs or things like that in my area, not speaking for every part of the country in Miami, in the Boston area, they're not doing deals because they can't make money. There's no margin of error. If they were to compete and win the deal and they make a mistake, they're going to lose money. They don't want to lose money. So they need to have a big enough margin cushion so that they make a mistake.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:24:49) - They're still making money. So these people we work with, they're not doing deals because there are no deals to find. So that means there are fewer mortgages times like 2008, nine and ten, we didn't have enough client cash to put to work. Like we had so many notes coming at us we didn't have enough cash to find. Now it's the reverse. There's plenty of cash chasing them and there's not enough notes out there. And a lot of the notes are poor quality because the risk is too high. We want easy. We want somebody paying on time, we want our money back and then go on and do it again. So I love them for cash flow. It's simple and easy and it solves a lot of problems. So this is interesting. If you as a real estate investor have ever taken a hard money loan, you might wonder who the lender is on the other side of that. And that might be someone like Kirk's clients in there where he is. Kirk. Can you tell us more about the default rates on the hard money loans lately? How often do they not get paid back and do they go into default? Yeah, that's a good question.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:25:48) - So I don't know the industry rates. So we work with a handful of people and that's all we work with, so we know the rates for them. I'll tell you about ours and I'll tell you about the industry a little bit more. So for us, we've done hundreds and hundreds of these things and I would say less than 1% of them have had issue. So we are truly not looking for rates of default. A tornado tore through the neighborhood and tore off the roof. That's an issue. That's not something I can deal with. Right. Guy you're working with dies. It's an issue you got to deal with, right? Like this isn't somebody making a bad deal or run away with the money. This is stuff that you can't predict and is inevitably going to happen in one way, shape or form. So we mitigate the risk as much as possible, but our rates of default or I would say not even default, but just having issue with the loan because most of the stuff it's, you know, maybe discount if you have a something like that, maybe it's your discounting the interest instead of getting the full interest, maybe get partial interest or even no interest, get your money back.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:26:44) - Like for us, it's like, how do you handle a default is really important because the borrower, there's some risk there, but then there's the lender, there's some risk there. So you have to find a balance that makes everybody happy so that, you know, the borrower is not taking it on the chin because then they're not going to come back. But it's not all in the lender either. So you have to find a balance and work with people. Much like with real estate, you know, you get a bad tenant, so you try to work with them so you still get paid. It's the same kind of thing. But if you look at the industry, the industry is interesting. So I interview a lot of hard money lenders on my show over the years and fascinated to hear what they say and some of the people who do the most or they're in charge of marketplaces of these notes. What they've been telling me for the last few years is think about this way. A lot of these things come from developers or fixing flippers.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:27:31) - They get their properties out of foreclosure, they get it out of sheriff's sale, they get out of fire or estate sales like these things where they're highly discounted. So during Covid, the courts were shut down for a year and a half. You couldn't get these properties if you were foreclosed on, you couldn't get foreclosed on for two years because the courts weren't open. And when they did open, there was such a backlog of other stuff that was more important than that. They were dealing with like murderers and whatever, rapists, people that actually need to go to jail. And they're not dealing with foreclosures to the same extent. So the courts are backed up for a long period of time. And so when they finally opened up, you start to see a trickle through. You're starting to see more now. But that was a big challenge to the market. So what I've been hearing for the people who are really deep in this market and they see everybody across the board, across the country is they've all said that there's a tidal wave coming.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:28:24) - And a lot of the problem is, is there are a lot of bad notes out there. So there are people who basically created these notes, right? So they underwrote the notes. They they lent money to somebody with bad terms or is a bad loan like the person should have borrowed or whatever it is, they're still paying. But you see, the quality of the paper is really bad. And what's going to happen is if you see a hiccup in the real estate market, then you're going to see this paper flush through the system because all of a sudden this deal that was marginal is now a bad deal and it flushes through either people default or they sell or whatever. And that stuff has to flush through the system until it does, the market's not going to be efficient. Everyone is waiting around saying, I know there's bad paper out there. I'm trying to find good stuff and it's harder to find, but it's not from a lack of paper, it's from a lack of quality paper. And this happens every real estate cycle.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:29:19) - Having 2008, nine, ten flushes out the bad people, buy the paper at a discount. You're listening to Get Rejection. We're talking with innovative welcomes Principal Kirk Chisholm when we come back, including his take on where we're going with interest rates and inflation. I'm your host, Keith Lindholm. You know, I'll just tell you, for the most passive part of my real estate investing personally, I put my own dollars with Freedom family Investments because their funds pay me a stream of regular cash flow in. Returns are better than a bank savings account up to 12%. Their minimums are as low as 25 K. You don't even need to be accredited. For some of them. It's all backed by real estate. And I kind of love how the tax benefit of doing this can offset capital gains in your W-2, jobs, income. And they've always given me exactly their stated return paid on time. So it's steady income, no surprises while I'm sleeping or just doing the things I love. For a little insider tip, I've invested in their power fund to get going on that text family to 668660.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:30:30) - And this isn't a solicitation If you want to invest where I do, just go ahead and text family to six six, 866. Jerry listeners can't stop talking about their service from Ridge Lending Group and MLS 42056. They've provided our tribe with more loans than anyone. They're truly a top lender for beginners and veterans. It's where I go to get my own loans for single family rental property up to four Plex's So start your prequalification and you can chat with President Charlie Ridge personally, though, even deliver your custom plan for growing your real estate portfolio. Start at Ridge Lending Group.

 

Speaker 3 (00:31:16) - This is author Jim Rickards. Listen to Get Rich Education with Keith Reinhold and Don't Quit Your Day Dream.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:31:32) - Welcome back to Get Rich. We're talking with Kirk Chisholm. He is the principal and a wealth manager at Innovative Advisory Group. And I like to chat with Kirk and some of these people that have this bigger picture view where they offer clients stock options, real estate options and more. In Kirk, I know you like to say that we're sort of living in a new paradigm and that people are only just now starting to realize this new paradigm, which has to do with interest rates and inflation.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:32:01) - So tell us about this new paradigm. Let's take us back a few years. So if you think about what's happened in history, I'm a student of history, much like you are, Keith, You look back in history, it's instructive as to how the future may act, right? It's never going to mirror that because it doesn't happen that way, as I think it was. Mark Twain has said that history never repeats, but it rhymes. I'm not sure if that's actually attributed to him, even though people say it is. But point being is if you look back in history for the pretty much starting in like the 70s, we had a period of time and I'm going to come back to the 70s, but we had a period of time where things were volatile, we had high interest rates and we peaked at 20% rates depending on which rate we're talking about. The 30 year treasuries, I think it hit 15%. Fed funds rate hit 20%. So we had some pretty high numbers. And so the subsequent 40 years, interest rates declined for 40 years.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:32:56) - If you had bought a 15%, 30 year Treasury in 1980, 1981 and held on for the whole 30 years, you would have made 15% for that whole time. And it bottomed out a few years ago. So think about the 70s. Like, here's the economy, right? I got my hands together. Here's the economy. This is what it looks like, right? It's this size Now. If you start injecting leverage, you get a mortgage on your real estate. That's leverage. The company borrows money. That's leverage. Right? So you're borrowing money. So your borrowing future cash flows to use today. So let's say I own a home outright and I decide, hey, I want to borrow money to go buy a motorcycle, whatever. Okay. Well, I just increased the economy size because I borrowed money, right? So I've increased the amount of money in circulation from 1983 81 until pretty much a few years ago, the interest rates went from a high amount of 20% down to close to zero.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:33:51) - Now, the lower the interest rates, the more you can borrow. So if you think about the economy, it kept increasing as rates drop because you can borrow more and more money. Now, how much money can you borrow? A 0%. Keith An infinite amount, in theory, yes. As much as they'll give you. And how much? If it's negative, I don't know. I'm going to borrow a bunch of people and borrow their money like and we get into this crazy period we had a few years ago where there actually negative rates in Japan still does. But the point is, is the lower the rate, the bigger the economy can be because you're allowed to leverage more and it means you can borrow more money and use that money for other things. And now that's a problem because you're borrowing future cash flows to use today. So at some point you got to pay that back one way, shape or form or another. The thing is, is that is increased the size of the economy over this time.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:34:37) - So the paradigm from the early 80s until a few years ago was one of leverage and growth. And there's a lot of things went into that globalization, outsourcing to China and Asia, technology, all these things influence this growth of the economy. But then in 2021, we hit the lowest rates. We hit mortgage rates at 2.5%. Fed funds rates were low, Treasuries were low, and they started raising rates in 2022. So the economy now started to shrink because you can borrow less. Now, it didn't actually shrink, but I'm using this for illustrative purposes. So if I'm looking at this big, huge balloon and think of it as a balloon, right? You start as there's no air in it, you blow it up with air, you get this huge balloon. Well, as rates go up, you start to let air out of the balloon because you can't sustain high interest rates because it comes down to cash flow. So what ends up happening is as rates go up, the economy effectively starts to shrink over time because if low rates help it expand, higher rates will contract it.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:35:39) - But it doesn't happen today or tomorrow. It happens over years, as the economy did in the last 40 years. So the paradigm we had changed two years ago and now we have high interest rates and the economy is shrinking to acclimate to this new higher rate environment. So you could have bought mortgage for 2.5% for 30 years on the house. You bought a $500,000 house, 2.5%. You probably would have paid, I think, $3,700 a month rate. You're paying $3,700 a month. That's where you can afford. And most people were doing that, so they bought as much as they could afford. However, now mortgage rates are seven and a quarter at seven and a half. That $3,700 a month mortgage is now doubled. So now you're looking at about a $7,400 a month mortgage. I can't afford $7,400 a month, so I can't buy that same price house. Now, the house price to accommodate that has to decline. And I'm using real Estate Illustrated because it also I'll tell you in a minute so the house price has declined to accommodate that higher payments because people can only buy what they can afford.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:36:43) - Now take that illustration and overlay that into corporate America, because companies do the same thing. They borrow as much as they can get away with. As you say, with mortgages, it's fixed. It doesn't affect me because it's fixed. And same thing with corporations doesn't affect me. It's fixed. That's correct. Which is why it doesn't impact the economy immediately. But it does impact it over time because with the 30 year mortgage, you never have to move. But if you do have to move, you're in trouble. If you own commercial property, you don't have 30 years, you might have a five or a ten year mortgage, which is going to roll at some point in time and hopefully rates are lower. But if they're not now, you've got some explaining to do, right? In corporate America, there's a lot of companies that get, you know, short term debt that's going to roll over at a higher rate. How are they going to afford it? Johnson, Johnson, Apple, Microsoft, they can afford it, but can borderline junk bonds, companies that are low quality, that are just making it, barely making it buy in cash flow because they can borrow money? What about them? Well, they're going to be forced to make hard decisions or go into bankruptcy.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:37:48) - So what higher rates do? It basically cleans up the economy by taking out the inefficient players and forcing some into bankruptcy, foreclosures, whatever it may be, it effectively will clean up the market, but it also caused the economy to shrink. So it destroys capital. And if we have rates that are higher for longer than, let's say a few more months, if they're higher for 5 or 10 years, it's going to be a problem. And I think we're going to have higher rates a lot longer than most people think. The market is predicting another six months they're going to drop rates. They've been saying that for the last year. So I don't think they're accurate. I think it's going to be at least a year, maybe two, and then we'll see what happens. Hard to see that far out, but people need to be become acclimated to these higher rates for a while because if you look at historically, these aren't that high. Their average rates. Yeah, they're right in the mean like we're not high historically.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:38:43) - If you look at bond yields I mean you look at late 90s, you've got up to 6%. I think you've got to 6 or 7% and depending on what you're investing in. So we are not high and default rates are not high. Default rates for high yield bonds historically are 7%. I think we're like 1% like last 15 years. So the numbers that we saw were extreme examples of the economy. And we're going to find a happy balance somewhere. And I don't know where that is, but this new paradigm is about reassessing the assumptions you're making about your investments, about the economy and any assumption what are interest rates going to be? What's inflation going to be? These are things that people never even thought of. They just assumed, Oh, inflation is going to be 3%, I'll just use that. Or interest rates, they're going to be similar. You can't make those assumptions anymore. You have to have broader. Lateral testing of whether this is going to work or not. You've done a great job of breaking down that new paradigm where basically that 40 year period from 1981 to 2021, we had gradually declining interest rates and something in 2021, that's where things changed and we entered into a new paradigm of increasing interest rates.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:39:55) - So as we're winding down here, you stated you think that we will have persistently higher rates for quite a while. So many people have been saying a recession is just around the corner for so long. It's sort of annoying to really think about it. But as we know, with the recession, that generally correlates with a lowering of interest rates. But you don't see that happening by next year, say, with a lowering of interest rates that corresponds with a recession. What you said is recessions typically correlate with lower rates. You're correct. But what if they don't? I'll give you some examples here of why things are different and why it matters. So if the last 20 plus years, if we had a recession or even a sniff of a recession, the Fed would drop rates, print money, they would boost the markets back up. Everything would be fine. Right. Problems solved. Right? The world's going to end. Don't worry. Here comes the Fed to the rescue. They did that for 20 years.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:40:49) - But now we have high inflation. So with high inflation, they can't do that because if they do that, it causes inflation to spike, much like the 70s. Now they're not oblivious to the 70s. They know full well what happened and they don't want to repeat it. What they're saying has been pretty clear. We're going to make sure we kill inflation. We don't want it coming back. It is very probable that we have inflation dipped down into two even 0% this year. There's the probability is low, but it's probability we could hit 0% inflation by the end of the year. However, I don't think it's going to stay there because we tend to get a bullwhip effect, which we've seen in many commodity prices, lumber in particular, where the prices go up and then too many people, they make too much lumber to sell and then there's a glut and then it goes lower and then it goes higher because, you know, so you get this bullwhip effect, which is a problem which caused and it's the same thing with inflation, right? You get this bullwhip effect because the changes have been too drastic that people can't adjust, so they over adjust, are under adjust, and that causes this big change.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:41:50) - So I think we're going to have a dip back to inflation, probably not 8%. But when that happens, they're going to have to come back and raise rates. So what they're trying to do is they're trying to keep rates higher, longer to make sure inflation doesn't come back. We're really in this back and forth of where are we going to go, where's the Fed going to take us? And if it tends to be five years of high rates, that's going to really impact the economy and eventually we will hit a recession. But I think the probability is showing very low probability of recession anytime soon because it's not playing out in the data. Some data is showing yes, some data is showing no. But when I start to see that, it means it just doesn't matter. It's not going to show up. Well, that's some good perspective, Kirk. CPI inflation peaked at.

 

Speaker 3 (00:42:36) - 9.1%.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:42:37) - A little over a year ago. It's at 3% now. But yeah, one place where I agree with you, Kirk, is, yeah, the Fed sure does not want to see that pop back up again.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:42:48) - And within the Fed's dual mandate of high employment and stable prices, it seems like they're prioritizing stable prices over keeping employment high, that's for sure. Well, yeah, there's been a great wide ranging chat.

 

Speaker 3 (00:43:01) - With interest.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:43:02) - Rates.

 

Speaker 3 (00:43:03) - Inflation stocks, real estate and producing income from both of them. Kirk If our audience wants to reach out to you or learn more about what you do, they're at Innovative Advisory Group. How can they do that?

 

Keith Weinhold (00:43:15) - Thanks, Keith. So yeah, the best way people can find me, I'm really easy to find. They can go to my podcast, Money Tree. Podcast. Com. We have two shows a week. One show we interview really intelligent investors like Keith, for example. We have the second episode is really more of a timely what's going on the markets this week, what's new, what's changed? Just so we can kind of keep people up to date with what's going on and if people are really looking to find out more about me and my services, you can go to Innovative Wealth and I've written all the blog posts there, but our company provides wealth management services for people, whether it's financial planning or portfolio management.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:43:52) - That's a lot of what we do. So like I said, I'm easy to find and I'm pretty easygoing guys. So if you're interested, you can find me there.

 

Speaker 3 (00:43:58) - Kirk Chisholm, Innovative Wealth. It's been great having you here. Thanks so much for coming on to the show.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:44:04) - Thanks for having me, Keith.

 

Speaker 3 (00:44:10) - Yeah. Well, Kirk Chisholm, he thinks that higher interest rates will linger longer. And he told us why. Now, Historically, it takes 3 to 5 quarters for interest rate hikes to hit the economy. Rate increases begin in March of 2022, but Americans are sitting on lots of cash. So many think that this recession that's perpetually just around the corner won't begin until at least next year. One benefit of a recession coming is that people will stop spreading undue concern.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:44:45) - About.

 

Speaker 3 (00:44:45) - A recession Coming Coming up here on the show, lots of great real estate investing strategy sessions forthcoming, not just big picture impacts like the direction of rents, home prices and interest rates, but also how to improve your operational efficiencies, like how to tamp down on higher property insurance premiums and more including what today's market for new build for plex's like investing in America's intermountain West and more.

 

Speaker 3 (00:45:14) - Until next week. I'm your host, Keith White. Don't quit your daydream.

 

Speaker 4 (00:45:21) - Nothing on this show should be considered specific, personal or professional advice. Please consult an appropriate tax, legal, real estate, financial or business professional for individualized advice. Opinions of guests are their own information is not guaranteed. All investment strategies have the potential for profit or loss. The host is operating on behalf of Get Rich Education LLC exclusively.

 

Speaker 3 (00:45:50) - The preceding program was brought to you by your home for wealth building. Get rich education.

 

 

Direct download: GREepisode460_.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 4:00am EDT

Watch the video of today's podcast intro here

Are starter homes a thing of the past? Did the Fed just win? I provide commentary and perspective on both.

Hear clips from: Donald Trump, Jamie Dimon, and Jerome Powell.

Then, I answer four listener questions:

Should I make my first real estate investment a new development from raw land?

Does it make sense to sell some rental properties, pay off others, and make my life easier?

My returns are down because my property repair bills are higher than expected. What should I do?

Since the government has high debt, won’t they keep printing dollars?

If you have a listener question, ask it here: GetRichEducation.com/Contact

Timestamps:

The state of the real estate economy [00:00:01]

Home prices and housing supply [00:01:33]

Analysis of home prices reaching new highs, the decrease in new listings, and the impact on housing supply.

Mortgage rates and the future of interest rates [00:03:54]

Insights on the direction of mortgage rates, the unlikelihood of rates returning to the 3% range, and the opinions of Lawrence Yun, the chief economist at the NAR.

The Fed's Soft Landing [00:10:31]

Discussion on the Federal Reserve's efforts to control inflation and maintain economic stability.

Building Development as a First Investment [00:12:49]

Advice on whether it is a good idea for beginners to invest in land development and the challenges involved.

Acquiring More Property or Paying Down Debt [00:19:02]

Advice on whether to continue acquiring properties or pay off existing debt and downsize for a more enjoyable life.

The philosophy of debt [00:21:11]

Debt can be beneficial and indicate wealth, as seen in examples of successful individuals with high levels of debt.

Managing repair costs for rental properties [00:24:18]

Charging tenants for the first portion of repair bills can incentivize them to make minor repairs themselves and reduce long-term repair costs.

Inflation and government debt [00:30:12]

Inflation can debase government debt, reducing its value, similar to how it affects personal debt. The US government's ability to print money allows for easier repayment of debt.

The housing supply and marketplace [00:31:30]

Discussion on the historically low US housing supply and the importance of staying up to date with the inventory and other elements in the real estate market.

Resources mentioned:

Show Notes:

www.GetRichEducation.com/459

Get mortgage loans for investment property:

RidgeLendingGroup.com or call 855-74-RIDGE 

or e-mail: info@RidgeLendingGroup.com

Find cash-flowing Jacksonville property at:

www.JWBrealestate.com/GRE

Invest with Freedom Family Investments. You get paid first: Text ‘FAMILY’ to 66866

Will you please leave a review for the show? I’d be grateful. Search “how to leave an Apple Podcasts review” 

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GREmarketplace.com/Coach

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Keith’s personal Instagram:

@keithweinhold

 

Complete episode transcript:

 

Speaker 1 (00:00:01) - Welcome to GRE. I'm your host, Keith Weinhold. First, I'll discuss the surprising state of the real estate economy. Then I answer your listener question Should I develop and build property myself? How do I keep my rental properties repair bill down? And two questions about real estate debt all today on Get Rich Education with real estate capital Jacksonville. Real estate has outperformed the stock market by 44% over the last 20 years. It's proven to be a more stable asset, especially during recessions. Their vertically integrated strategy has led to 79% more home price appreciation compared to the average Jacksonville investor since 2013. JTB is ready to help your money make money and to make it easy for everyday investors. Get started at JWB Real Estate.

 

Speaker 2 (00:01:01) - You're listening to the show that has created more financial freedom than nearly any show in the world. This is get rich education.

 

Speaker 1 (00:01:24) - Welcome to the area from Warsaw, Poland, to Warsaw, Indiana, and across 188 nations worldwide. And Keith Weinhold in your listening to Get Rich Education.

 

Speaker 1 (00:01:33) - Earlier this month, CNBC reported that home prices have hit new highs again, another up just slightly year over year, though the popular sentiment is that by now people have gotten used to paying 7% or even more than 7% mortgage rates and higher rates. That puts the squeeze on housing supply. I mean, gosh, within this era of already paltry supply, I mean, we're talking about direly few homes in some markets here. Nationally, new listings are down 25% from a year ago. All right. Now, that's all national stuff. But look now, just over half of the nation's 50 largest housing markets and they're mostly in the Midwest and Northeast. They have either returned to their prior price peaks or they have set new all time highs. Annual home prices are still weaker out west, but even some of the Western markets has slumped. They're now seeing month over month gains. Yes, we're talking about gains now even in San Jose, San Diego, Los Angeles, San Francisco and Seattle. Now, look, our starter homes, a thing of the past.

 

Speaker 1 (00:02:47) - Some now think so with these higher prices. Just listen to this from an NAR survey, 40% of millennials who bought homes last year, they plan to stay in them 16 years or more. And for Gen Z, that number jumps up to 48%. Now, who knows if they'll really stay in those homes at that long. But see, what's going on here is just affirmation that so many buyers don't plan to trade in their starter home for a move up home. They got their starter homes when rates were low, though starter homes are not coming onto the market, potential sellers have ghosted the market, making for fewer listings and those fewer listings. That's what's fueling the price growth. So yes, starter homes could largely be a thing of the past, but of course not completely. Now, just two weeks ago here on the show, Jim Rogers told us why long term, he thinks interest rates will go much higher and opinions can be all over the place. So I don't want to get too bogged down in that.

 

Speaker 1 (00:03:54) - But shorter term, one prominent commentator, he is now emphatic that mortgage rates have hit their top, like, for example, hit their top for perhaps this year and next year. Lawrence Yun, chief economist at the NAR on the direction of mortgage rates. He says, quote, This is the top. It will begin to move down. But you can also says if you're a US home buyer waiting for a return to super low mortgage rates, don't hold your breath. The short lived era of 3% interest rates for 30 year fixed mortgages, that is over, and they are unlikely to return anytime soon, perhaps for decades. He goes on to say that one can never truly predict the future but don't see mortgage rates returning back to the 3% range in the remainder of my lifetime. That is all of what Yun said. Okay. The remainder of Lawrence Hoon's lifetime, he looks pretty healthy and that might be 40 years, 40 plus years. Did we see rates that low again, according to him? Now, did you see this? We posted this in our Instagram stories as our curious article of the week last week.

 

Speaker 1 (00:05:07) - The Washington Post get a hold of this title. They published an article and it was titled The Housing Market Recession is Already Ending. My preeminent thought is the housing market recession is already ending. That's a curious headline. What housing market recession? I don't get it. And the subtitle doesn't help. It's subtitled Last year's downturn in the housing market didn't last even with higher interest rates. Now prices are stabilizing. Is supply chains have eased up. All right. Well, even with actually reading the complete article, I don't know what they mean by a housing market recession last year. I guess that national home prices stopped appreciating last year and they just stabilized. But I don't know how the heck you get a recession out of that. Maybe with low housing supply, there were fewer transactions and that was being considered a recession. Now, look, I'm going to posit something really unpopular here in today's climate, but I think that this is a question that you really need to ask yourself today, and that is, did Jerome Powell just win? I told you it was unpopular.

 

Speaker 1 (00:06:20) - He's not a very well liked. Person in a lot of circles. But with CPI inflation at 9% last year and 3% now. Yet throughout this spin, we had a few banks that broke but no recession. Is it possible that Jerome Powell has engineered a soft landing? I've got more on that in a moment. But the actual person of one, Donald, John Trump, made some quick remarks about the economy this month. Let's listen in.

 

Speaker 3 (00:06:52) - We've never had an economy like we had just three years ago. It was unbelievable. And frankly, this economy is not doing well. But the reason it's doing okay is it's running on the fumes of what we built. But those fumes are running out and they're running out fast. And it's not going to be a pretty picture.

 

Speaker 1 (00:07:11) - Yeah, I don't know about that. When we look at the broader US economy, let's get something more substantive. And speaking of people that aren't well liked, Jamie Dimon had some great perspective. I think you know that he's the billionaire business exec and the banker that's led JPMorgan Chase since 2005.

 

Speaker 1 (00:07:30) - To put it another way. This man runs the largest bank in America.

 

Speaker 4 (00:07:36) - It's the other way around. America has the best hand ever dealt of any country on this planet today ever. Okay. And Americans don't fully appreciate what I'm about to say. We have peaceful, wonderful neighbors in Canada and Mexico. We've got the biggest military barriers ever built called the Atlantic and the Pacific. We have all the food, water and energy we will ever need. Okay. We have the best military on the planet, and we will for as long as we have the best economy. And if you're a liberal, listen closely to me in that one, okay? Because the Chinese would love to have our economy. We have the best universities on the planet. There are great ones elsewhere. But these are the best. We still educate most most of the kids who start businesses around the world. We have a rule of law which is exceptional. If you don't believe me and we talk about Britain, Brazil, Russia, India, Venezuela, Argentina, China, India, believe me, it's not quite there.

 

Speaker 4 (00:08:29) - We have a magnificent work ethic. We have innovation from the core of our bones. You can ask anyone in this room what you can do to be more productive. Ask your assistants, factory floors, redo it. It's not just the Steve Jobs. It's this broad death with the wires and deepest financial markets the world's ever seen. Okay. And if you. I just made a list of these things and maybe I miss something. It's extraordinary. It's extraordinary. And we have it today. Yes, we have problems. But, you know, when I hear people down, if you travel around the world, I mean, get an airplane, travel around the world and go to all these other countries and tell me what you think.

 

Speaker 1 (00:09:02) - Yeah, Jamie Dimon really bringing up a lot of those geographic advantages like Peterson and I discuss in depth here Diamond's remarks. They're not new remarks. Those weren't recent ones. And by the way, I don't really care for him calling out liberals, just like labeling people conservatives.

 

Speaker 1 (00:09:20) - That's counterproductive. I like the quality of ideas as soon as we start labeling things left or right, that quickly becomes more divisive than it does unifying. Don't do left right politics. I do. Up, down, up is integrity. The quality of your ideas concepts means for getting things done and track record. That's what matters. But anyway, coming off Jamie Dimon waxing poetic with American optimism and exceptionalism. Yeah, it is time to ask if the Fed is winning. And first, let's understand something fundamental The fact that high inflation occurred for two years that is irreparable. Let's not overlook that. I mean, you're Trader Joe's grocery store prices. They're not coming back down even if the rate of inflation has slowed. I mean, that is a big fat L, That is a loss. It came from printing all those dollars to paper over the pandemic, which created the high inflation with everything from the paycheck protection program to Stemi checks to the Cares Act. And yes, the executive branch created some of that too.

 

Speaker 1 (00:10:31) - But my point is, make the irresponsible people that don't have any savings feel some pain once in a while. If you just make money fall from the sky every time there's a crisis, then people are going to learn to not have any reserves or any cash flowing investments during the next crisis. Yes, supply chain constraints are part of the problem too. But since you tried to paper over the pain, see then creating that inflation that results, that makes everyone feel the pain that's middle class or below. All right. But after that understanding, is Jerome Powell now winning by landing the inflation softly without crashing the economy and keeping GDP rising a little in keeping unemployment low in see even the producers price index that's forward looking that measures this change. In selling prices of goods and services producers. That's falling out, right? That leading indicator for consumer price inflation. And that's why inflation expectations are finally dropping. And that doesn't mean that I like the Fed or the system at all. But by now you've at least got to begin to wonder if the Fed can get their soft landing.

 

Speaker 1 (00:11:47) - They've dropped down from 30,000 foot cruising altitude. There's no turbulence, and they're below, call it, 10,000ft. Now, for the first time in two years, wages are finally rising faster than prices.

 

Speaker 4 (00:12:01) - We at the Fed remain squarely focused on.

 

Speaker 1 (00:12:04) - Our dual mandate.

 

Speaker 4 (00:12:05) - To promote.

 

Speaker 1 (00:12:05) - Maximum employment and stable.

 

Speaker 4 (00:12:06) - Prices for the American people.

 

Speaker 1 (00:12:08) - Yes, sir. That is your job after all. Well, I want to turn to your listener questions here for the remainder of the show. And if you've got a question for me, you can always reach out at Get Rich education, slash contact. The first question comes from Tina in Monroe, Louisiana. She says, Keith, I love your show. Just started listening last month. Tina asks Keith, I have the idea of buying land and I want to know if this is a good idea to build new rentals on. Like for Plex's, I've already formed an LLC and hope to open a business line of credit, but this would be my first ever real estate investment.

 

Speaker 1 (00:12:49) - Okay, Tina, thanks for finding the show here. Welcome in. I expect that you'll have years of profitable listening ahead to start a new development from digging raw dirt all the way through to procuring your certificates of occupancy and have that be your very first investment for almost anyone. I have got to say no because there is just so much to development. Development is going to rely on your experience and your ability to build a team. You're going to need general contractors and subcontractors and vendors, suppliers and experience dealing with regulators and a municipality and bankers and perhaps investors. And legal development is risky for beginners. You're purchasing something that doesn't yet exist. You've got to be sure that you're buying the right land in the right place. And that means studying everything from geotechnical reports and Perc tests to understanding the demographics, whether you plan to buy that land there in Monroe, Louisiana, or wherever else it is, and then your exit strategy. And while it might not actually be to exit, but it's going to be either to sell your completed development or for you to hold it for rental income, you have really got to know what you're doing.

 

Speaker 1 (00:14:13) - I am not a developer, but I talked to a lot of them, especially build to rent developers. Now, the reason that I say that the answer is no for development as your first real estate investment for almost anyone. Well, I say almost because if you have a remarkable mentor, someone that's going to go out in the field with you almost every day, then it's a possibility. And even then that mentor should have a proven track record. You need approvals and subdivision and plans drawn and bringing in drainage and utilities and entitlement mean instead of all that for a beginner and really even for most veteran investors, it is substantially easier to buy something that's already built, that has a history of rental occupancy and income. And then the team that you have to build a so much smaller with that primary long term team member as your property manager. But thank you for the question, Tina, because I think a lot of real estate investors wonder about building themselves from raw land. And it seems that even more investors right in here wondering about, you know, just building one individual single family rental home or duplex or fourplex.

 

Speaker 1 (00:15:25) - And even then, if it's successfully done, it usually takes longer than you think. And then once you're done, the property is vacant and you need to find tenants. So it might be a few more months before it even cash flows. So buy property that's already built, learn investing that way. And what you've done is you've outsourced all of the development unknowns to someone else and they bring you the known and completed development project that is better for more than 99% of people. And then look into being a developer yourself when you've got sufficient experience. If that remains interesting to you, a great mentor with a proven track record or both, if you'd like to ask a question and potentially have me answer it on air here again, go ahead and reach out through get ratification smash contact because that's where you can either leave a voice message or a written one. I am just. Getting started with listener questions. I'm back with more of them. Straight ahead. I'm Keith Reinhold in You're listening to episode 459 of Get Rich Education.

 

Speaker 1 (00:16:30) - If you want some really passive income, listen to this. You know, I'll just tell you, for the most passive part of my real estate investing personally, I put my own dollars with freedom family investments because their funds pay me a stream of regular cash flow in. Returns are better than a bank savings account up to 12%. Their minimums are as low as 25. K. You don't even need to be accredited. For some of them. It's all backed by real estate and I kind of love how the tax benefit of doing this can offset capital gains in your W-2, jobs, income. And they've always given me exactly their stated return paid on time. So it's steady income, no surprises while I'm sleeping or just doing the things I love. For a little insider tip, I've invested in their power fund to get going on that text family to 668660, and this isn't a solicitation If you want to invest where I do, just go ahead and text family to six six, 866. Jerry listeners can't stop talking about their service from Ridge Lending Group and MLS 42056.

 

Speaker 1 (00:17:43) - They've provided our tribe with more loans than anyone. They're truly a top lender for beginners and veterans. It's where I go to get my own loans for single family rental property up to four Plex's. So start your pre-qualification and you can chat with President Charlie Ridge personally, though, even deliver your custom plan for growing your real estate portfolio. Start at Ridge Lending Group.

 

Speaker 5 (00:18:12) - This is Jerry Operations lead Andrea Newburn. Listen to Get Rich Education with Keith Reinhold and don't put your daydream.

 

Speaker 1 (00:18:29) - You're listening to the show. It's created more financial freedom for busy people just like you than nearly any show in the world. This is guitarist Education. I'm your host, Keith Reinhold. The next question comes from Adam. He is a real estate agent in Seattle. And Adam asks this. Hi, Keith. I've been an avid listener and follower of yours for years now. Like you, the Little Purple Book changed my life early on and I was able to semi retire at age 35. The book that he's talking about, by the way, is that Poor Dad, I am 42 now and back working as a realtor because I love it.

 

Speaker 1 (00:19:02) - And then after he wrote I Love It in parentheses, he put well, sorta. So I don't know that he loves it too much and I am at a crossroad in my life. Do I keep acquiring more property and more debt or do I start paying down the properties I do have? I have seven properties now and with a mindset of less is more as I want to enjoy my life a bit more and I'm honestly getting tired of managing my three in state properties. Therefore I've been thinking about selling one to pay off the loan of two other properties and really start to downsize and truly be debt free. Life is too short and I want to enjoy the rest of my life. Do you have any advice or opinions for me? Thank you in advance. Okay. Adam. Well, since you've listened for years, you probably already understand that I don't pay off any of my properties, though I could. I don't want to. I'd lose leverage in all that. You probably understand that I don't self manage.

 

Speaker 1 (00:20:01) - You said that you self-manage three of your seven properties there in Washington state. So since you probably already understand all that, yes, I would acquire more property, more debt and outsource the property management. That way you can enjoy life if the property is in your home state, don't have high rents in proportion to their values. In a lot of places around Seattle, they don't have a high ratio there. Well then it's probably worth 1030 running into out of state property. Or if you really like those Washington properties, then find a property manager there in state and to find a suitable 1031 exchange facilitator with a proven track record, check the resources tab at GRI marketplace.com. That same website will help you find out-of-state properties if you like. You can also contact our coaches to help walk you through that at marketplace.com/coach. That is a free coaching service by the way. Now as far as keeping the instate Washington properties, if you decide that you do want to do that, the bigger Pockets forums can help you vet a qualified property manager there.

 

Speaker 1 (00:21:11) - Now, Adam, you did say something about the possibility of downsizing and becoming truly debt free, as you put it. But my question is, what's the problem with debt if someone else reliably pays it all for you? Of course your tenant pays a principal and interest and hopefully a little on top of that called cash flow. All right. In that case, all of that debt is outsourced. Now, let me get a little philosophical for a minute. I don't know the name of the person that's the biggest debtor in the entire world. But you know what? He is probably really wealthy or she all circle back to why in a second. Here's a fun way to understand this. The quarterback threw the most interceptions of all time. Oh, you must think that guy is a total loser. Well, you know what? The quarterback that's thrown the most interceptions all time by far is in fact, a Hall of Famer Brett Farve. Oh, well, how can that be? Well, it's because he got so many chances to play.

 

Speaker 1 (00:22:17) - He must have been a pretty good quarterback for the coach to put him on the field. Then often year after year, the baseball pitcher that lost the most ever games for his team all time, he is named Cy Young. Well, Cy Young also won the most games all time in Major League Baseball. He was one of the very first inductees into the Hall of Fame. And there's even an award given each year. Still, the most outstanding Major League Baseball player called the Cy Young Award. Yet he lost the most games and say, did you meet a guy on the street there where you live and you learn that he has $20 million in debt? I don't even need to know anything else right there. That tells me that he's probably a financial winner to have that much debt because, see, he would need to be highly credit worthy to even get all that debt in the first place. See, you're only looking at the $20 million debt side of his balance sheet. His asset side might be $50 million.

 

Speaker 1 (00:23:16) - Hey, that's a $30 million net worth. Even with high inflation, $30 million is fairly wealthy today and mad as Mark Zuckerberg is one of the wealthiest people in the world, he has a net worth. North of $100 billion. And the Zuckerbergs, they took a loan for their home even though they could pay cash for it many times over. And yet when Zuckerberg and his wife bought their home, they took out a loan for the leverage and the arbitrage. The wealthiest people in the world have the most debt AI model that you can model that I personally look to increase my debt as time goes on. And then simultaneously, I expect the asset side to increase faster than the debt side. The asset side increases faster because I've got the debt, hence the leverage. So this is why I have an aversion to being debt free. I hope there's both some helpful resources and a philosophical component for you to chew on there as well. Adam The next listener question comes from Heiko in Utica, New York. Sorry if I mispronounce your name.

 

Speaker 1 (00:24:18) - It's spelled at Jaakko. Maybe it's Jocko, but I'm going to go with Jocko. He asks. I've held my first ever purchase of a rental single family home for a little over a year. It's located in Holladay, Florida, though my property was projected to provide a cash on cash return of 6%, it only produced 3% because repairs cost more than expected On this 1978 built property. I use a local property manager that's been pretty communicative. I always anticipate reading my monthly email statement from him, just wondering how to manage costs over time. Signed Jocko. Okay. Jocko And by the way, I own rental single family homes myself, just about five miles from Holladay, Florida. And these areas are just north of Tampa. Well, Co only getting 3% rather than a projected 6%. It's actually not a terrible miss. Now, it would be if that were your only revenue source or your only return from an investment. But of course, this 3% cash on cash return is one of your five profit sources from income property.

 

Speaker 1 (00:25:28) - But suffice to say, one great long term strategy to keep myriad repair costs down over time. And it's something that Ken McElroy told me about, and that is charge the tenant for the first $50 in repairs or maybe charge the tenant for the first $100 of repairs. That way they're going to think twice before bugging you or bugging your manager. Now, this can have the desired effect of keeping your long term repair bill down in a few different ways, but yet ensure that you're still serving the tenant. All right. First of all, the first 50 or $100 a repair bill, it's really not that burdensome to most tenants, but yet they will think twice before calling you or it's calling your manager, in this case, Jocko, before calling about something ticky tacky and minor like the kitchen cabinet doors got a little loose on their hinges again. Now you want to provide clean, safe, affordable, functional housing. That is a core concept in mission here. At first, this might incentivize the tenant to make a 10 or 15 minute repair themselves so that you never even hear from them.

 

Speaker 1 (00:26:43) - And that also prevents, say, a $75 service call from being made in the first place. Now, if it's a repair that's beyond the tenants expertise or expectations to take care of themselves, say it's something like a kitchen faucet that just leaks a little, well, okay, you want to see that that's taken care of for them. But if they have to pay the first small portion of repairs themselves, then that incentivizes the tenant to report a number of small things in one batch. All right. Well, now, that makes it more efficient for you or for your property managers handyman. That makes for fewer service calls, fewer runs to Home Depot and a real reduction in your repair cost. See? Hello. The work from home movement. That's being good for us as residential real estate investors. But there is one downside to that. A few more tenants spend all day at home and there are more components that can wear out sooner. Or there's this more time that tenants spend at home to notice little things that are amiss.

 

Speaker 1 (00:27:47) - So that's why the time in the real estate market is right to charge the first portion of repair bills to the tenant. That's why this makes sense now. Now, there are a couple caveats around this. Hello. When the tenant first moves in, I'll go ahead and give them a week to bring you any findings and then those things should be taken care of without charging the tenant anything at all. Right? I mean, the tenant shouldn't have to inherit any problems. And the other caveat is that your tenant has to be communicative about items in disrepair that could create long term damage, like a leaky drain, because you don't want that to ruin your subfloor over. Time. So the short answer on how to lower your long term repair bills, especially in a work from home world, is to have it in the lease that the tenant pays for, say, the first $50 to $100 of repairs. Also, you may have heard it just ten episodes ago on episode 449, I discussed 12 ways that you can raise the red in add value to your property.

 

Speaker 1 (00:28:52) - There's a good bit of related content there to help you keep profitable and get your cash on cash return up. Now, plenty of properties. In fact, probably most properties have exceeded their return projections over the last three years, and that is primarily due to rapid appreciation. But see, you don't get the lessons from the winds, you get the lessons from the underperformers. And that's why I wanted to answer your question for everyone's benefit today. Taco Tacos question was microeconomics. Let's flip it to macroeconomics with this. Next question from Dave in Atlanta, Georgia. Davis This one a while ago. First, here's the remarkable part on the listener question form in the how did you hear about a section, Dave? You simply wrote, I've been listening to you from the very beginning. Gosh, Dave, this is so supremely appreciated. I know we've got a lot of great devotees and I'm incredibly grateful for it. Dave asks With the US government, 30 trillion in debt and there's some rounding there and if inflation is say 10% over a few years, doesn't inflation debase the government's debt just like it does ours, taking it from 30 trillion down to $27 trillion in this case? Yeah, that stays.

 

Speaker 1 (00:30:12) - Question That's right, Dave. You've 100% got it. I've talked about this in some prior episodes. Since we get to borrow our mortgage loans in the currency that's denominated in the units of the biggest detonation in the history of the world, the dollar in the USA, then they want to print Dave, just like you. If you had $1 million in debt but you couldn't pay it back right now and you had the ability to print dollars ad infinitum, then sure, the easiest way for you to pay back your debt is to print your own dollars, just like America is doing. And that is just another benefit of you keeping high debt on your properties. In fact, the true definition of inflation is an expansion of the money supply. It's not the result, which is a decline in purchasing power. Technically, if the same Chipotle burrito costs $10 last year at $11 this year, that's not inflation. That's the result of inflation. So the USA wants inflation for this reason and other reasons. I've said it before, the surest been investing is that the dollar is going to continue to decline in purchasing power and that's exactly why we are debtors rather than savers.

 

Speaker 1 (00:31:30) - Take the sure thing. Thanks for the listenership and thanks for the question, Dave. That's all for listener questions. I encourage you to help yourself out. No one's looking out for you more than you amiss. Historically low US housing supply. Gerri Marketplace is where the inventory actually is, and it's the right inventory. The properties that make the best rentals. Real estate pays five ways style. And the selection changes, of course, based on inventory and other elements. So stay up to date. And if you haven't lately, go ahead and log in. There are free coaching service is becoming popular as well in why not it's like your own concierge personal one on one if you want that it is all there for you at gray marketplace.com. I'll be here with you to run it back next week. I'm your host Keith Wayne a little bit. Don't quit your day dream.

 

Speaker 6 (00:32:35) - Nothing on this show should be considered specific, personal or professional advice. Please consult an appropriate tax, legal, real estate, financial or business professional for individualized advice.

 

Speaker 6 (00:32:45) - Opinions of guests are their own information is not guaranteed. All investment strategies have the potential for profit or loss. The host is operating on behalf of Get Rich Education LLC exclusively.

 

Speaker 1 (00:33:03) - The preceding program was brought to you by your home for wealth building. Get rich education.

 

 

Direct download: GREepisode459_.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 4:00am EDT

Get our newsletter free here or text “GRE” to 66866.

In this podcast episode, host Keith Weinhold introduces Scott Saunders, a successful real estate investor who shares his insights and experiences in building a portfolio of 64 single-family rental properties. 

They discuss the advantages of investing in cash-flowing rental properties, the importance of focusing on cash flow in the early stages, and the benefits of single-family rentals compared to multifamily properties. 

Scott also discusses his analysis of different markets for real estate investment and his approach to financing and leveraging his investments. 

They emphasize the importance of seeking professional advice and using resources like GREmarketplace.com for wealth building.

Timestamps:

The advantages of single family rentals [00:06:22]

Scott discusses the advantages of investing in single family rentals, including better cap rates, long-term fixed-rate financing, and the inherent demand for single family homes.

Greater liquidity with single family rentals [00:08:31]

Scott and Keith talk about the liquidity component of single family rentals, highlighting that even in a recession, people will still need a place to live and therefore be buyers of single family homes.

Longer tenancy duration in single family rentals [00:09:34]

The discussion focuses on how tenants tend to stay longer in single family homes and duplexes compared to larger apartment buildings, often due to factors such as larger square footage and the desire to be in a specific school district.

The importance of cash flow at the beginning [00:11:34]

Starting with cash flow-centric properties and gradually moving towards appreciation as the portfolio grows.

Scaling up the portfolio with short-term targets [00:14:55]

Setting 90-day targets to buy a specific number of properties, leading to significant progress in a year.

Factors in selecting the next market to buy in [00:18:24]

Considerations include having a communicative property manager and existing opportunities in a market rather than solely focusing on a good deal.

The importance of relationships in real estate investing [00:19:18]

Scott discusses the significance of having a good relationship with property managers and asset providers in different markets.

Factors to consider when choosing a real estate market [00:20:18]

Scott talks about the importance of factors such as job growth, a diversified economy, and an influx of people when selecting a market to invest in.

Using inflation as a tailwind in real estate investing [00:23:54]

Scott explains how he leverages inflation to his advantage by locking in assets today and using inflation to propel his investing forward.

The importance of 30-year fixed rate financing [00:28:12]

Scott discusses the benefits of locking in a 30-year fixed rate for financing and shares his experience during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Using paid-off assets as collateral for future financing [00:29:11]

Scott explains his strategy of paying off some properties to use them as collateral for obtaining loans for future investments.

Managing properties and involving family in real estate business [00:31:19]

Scott talks about using Excel to track his rental income and involving his daughter in managing the financials of his real estate business.

The goal of acquiring lifestyle assets [00:36:34]

Scott Saunders discusses his long-term goal of purchasing properties in Tuscany, Italy, Steamboat Springs, Colorado, and other locations for both enjoyment and return on investment.

The importance of return on attention [00:38:01]

Scott explains the concept of return on attention, which focuses on having the freedom to enjoy life without being constantly distracted by financial concerns.

The impact of purchasing single-family rentals [00:40:07]

Scott emphasizes the benefits of purchasing 5 to 10 single-family rental properties, which can provide economic freedom and significantly improve one's financial situation.

The disclaimer [00:46:07]

The speaker provides a disclaimer stating that the show does not provide specific advice and encourages listeners to seek professional advice.

Introduction [00:46:35]

The speaker introduces the show and mentions the website getricheducation.com as the home for wealth building.

Resources mentioned:

Show Notes:

www.GetRichEducation.com/458

Scott Saunders’ resources:

ScottRSaunders.com

Get mortgage loans for investment property:

RidgeLendingGroup.com or call 855-74-RIDGE 

or e-mail: info@RidgeLendingGroup.com

Find cash-flowing Jacksonville property at:

www.JWBrealestate.com/GRE

Invest with Freedom Family Investments. You get paid first: Text ‘FAMILY’ to 66866

Will you please leave a review for the show? I’d be grateful. Search “how to leave an Apple Podcasts review” 

Top Properties & Providers:

GREmarketplace.com

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GetRichEducation.com

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Complete episode transcript:

 

Speaker 1 (00:00:00) - Welcome to. I'm your host, Keith Weinhold. A follower has built a multi-state portfolio of 64 single family rental properties. He'll tell us how he's doing it, how he finances them all, his management technique and his guiding success principles today on Get Rich education. With real estate capital Jacksonville. Real estate has outperformed the stock market by 44% over the last 20 years. It's proven to be a more stable asset, especially during recessions. Their vertically integrated strategy has led to 79% more home price appreciation compared to the average Jacksonville investor since 2013. GWB is ready to help your money make money and to make it easy for everyday investors. Get started at GWB Real estate agree that's GWB real estate.com slash.

 

Speaker 2 (00:01:00) - You're listening to the show that has created more financial freedom than nearly any show in the world. This is Get rich education.

 

Speaker 1 (00:01:23) - Hey, welcome to GRE. From the tropical currents in the Gulf of Mexico to the icy waters of Hudson Bay across the Americas in 188 world nations, this is get rich education where we just reach the 5 million listener download.

 

Speaker 1 (00:01:37) - Mark, I am grateful to you for that. I'm your host, Keith Weinhold. Hey, a little context before we chat with our listener guests about the architecture of how he's building this robust 64 single family homes portfolio in growing across nine US states Once in a while. I like to drop things back for just a minute in case perhaps you're new here and you wonder how do people buy so many rental homes like adding ten every year? How am I supposed to do that? Well, of course, your speed of growth is going to be predicated on your income and some other things. But the best long term single-family rental homes, they're not 500 homes. They tend to be more like 200,000 homes in areas that are not upscale but yet safe, where you use a 20 to 25% down payment. And if you're new here and you have an aversion to debt, you know, I think that the simplest, most reassuring thing that I can tell a newcomer about real estate debt in just one sentence is that in a cash flowing rental, the tenant pays all of the debt for you, the principal, the interest, no matter what the interest rate is, all the operating expenses.

 

Speaker 1 (00:02:51) - And then a little on top of that called cash flow. Now, really, when you add the first few income properties to your life and you think about protecting your time, think about how that is a surrogate, a substitute to adding a part time job that can be a rather circuitous way of going about life, because what you really want is the income, not the job or not the lost time. So therefore add properties, not jobs. Most people think of financial improvement is cutting expenses. It is not. It is adding income. Then those the triadic income, many times they look to add a part time job. But I brazenly posit that income producing property is the way. And what do they call Ryan Seacrest the hardest working guy in show business? I guess if you wanted to, you could have as many part time jobs as Ryan Seacrest. Prepare yourself for drama on this stage.

 

Speaker 2 (00:03:54) - This is American Idol.

 

Speaker 1 (00:04:00) - Yeah, Ryan Seacrest. He will also become the Wheel of Fortune host starting next year along with the daytime talk show and being a producer and whatever else he does.

 

Speaker 1 (00:04:10) - I'm not really up on the latest. But yes, you want to have fewer jobs than Ryan Seacrest now speaking to your ROI, your return on time invested. You could get 64 single family rental homes like our guest today, and yet do it the wrong way. The wrong way might be say you live in a certain metro area and you buy all the properties just in your home metro so that the properties are spread, say one hour apart. That way you rationalize that you could self-manage, well, gosh, you'd be running all over the place. You'd have scores of tenants that could tax you. You'd almost be living at Home Depot, and after all that, you would still not be diversified because you'd only be in one metro market. Plus, how would you really ever get away on, say, a vacation? So that's probably not what you'd want either. Let's talk to our listener guest Scott, today and learn about how he does it. Here with me today is a great listener. Don't quit your day dream letter reader to discuss growing his Single-family rental portfolio.

 

Speaker 1 (00:05:22) - He's based in Colorado and he specializes in real estate in tax law. In fact, he often teaches real estate law to attorneys. He's a single family real estate investor that owns 64 single family rentals and four duplexes. So therefore, he owns 72 doors, 64 of which are single family rentals. And he owns those properties across nine different states Tennessee, Florida, Indiana, Missouri, Ohio, New Mexico, Colorado, Kansas and Arkansas. Higher mortgage rates aren't slowing him down as he's added six of those single family rentals this year. He's also a member of a Washington, D.C. based public policy organization that represents real estate interests. So he's really involved. He advocates for investor friendly tax policies with Congress. He's got a lot going on in his life. Hey, it's great to welcome on to Scott Saunders. Hey, Keith, Great to be with you. I'm a longtime follower and you have so many great nuggets of wisdom that you share, and it's just great. To visit with you for a few minutes.

 

Speaker 1 (00:06:22) - So thanks a lot. I appreciate that so much, Scott. Now, in the real estate world, there are pros and cons between single family rentals and larger apartments. Apartments have a certain economies of scale advantage, but single family rentals have advantages that some people overlook. So talk to us about why you like single family rentals so much. Happy to do that. I think single family rentals are, first of all, a great entryway to get into investment real estate. But some people kind of springboard. They get into single family and then they want to go into duplexes, four Plex apartments, Single family is an asset class. You know, if you just look at it, it has so many advantages. The cap rate on a single family is typically better than a lot of commercial buildings right now. You can lock in long term fixed rate financing. So even if the rate's a tad higher, you go into an apartment building or commercial, you've got to refinance. And as we all know right now in the marketplace, there are some commercial properties that are facing some significant distress because they're having to refinance at higher rates.

 

Speaker 1 (00:07:29) - Single family, you lock it in for 30 years and fix that. You've got buyer.

 

Speaker 3 (00:07:34) - Pool. I can sell a single family to an investor or a homeowner. So there just are a lot of advantages and maybe even just at the most basic level, we all need to live somewhere, right? And so a choice of an apartment or a single family. So many people like the freedom, the room, the convenience, the yard, the garage that comes with a single family. So I just think there's a lot of inherent demand where people want to be in that type of property, either as a renter or a homeowner. So I'm a big fan of buying a single family home, buy another one, you know, and just continue scaling in that niche. I call it Get Rich in a niche, right? And that's the single family rental niche.

 

Speaker 1 (00:08:16) - Sure. I had some apartment buildings that I sold recently that had balloon loans that were about to expire. And you mentioned the liquidity component where you have greater liquidity with single family rentals regardless of when it is in the cycle.

 

Speaker 1 (00:08:31) - Even if it were a recession, borderline depression, people will be a buyer because they need a place to live. But a person doesn't always need to invest in an apartment building regardless of where we're at in the economic cycle.

 

Speaker 3 (00:08:45) - Absolutely. Well, smart timing on your part to kind of see where those loans are going. And I think that there's a good time to maybe redeploy that capital somewhere else. So I like single family, and I think you can really grow and scale a portfolio. I mean, think of it this way, Keith. What if I needed to raise some cash? What if I had a medical need? I could unload a single family home or two right away. Now, I know from listening to your teaching, you'd say, don't sell it, refinance it. Right, harvest that equity. And that would be my first bet. But if I needed to generate cash, it's not that hard to unload some smaller single family rentals. And within a matter of a few months I could liquidate that and get the cash.

 

Speaker 3 (00:09:26) - Some apartment buildings, you know, in some markets it could take a long time to find the right buyer in some places.

 

Speaker 1 (00:09:34) - Now, during that whole time on a single family rental, you mentioned the cap rates. Oftentimes single family rentals are more profitable than what an investor projects. And one reason is that greater tenancy duration tenants tend to stay in single family homes and duplexes longer than they do a larger apartment building. Oftentimes it's because it feels like their own single family homes just tend to have more square footage, which lends to having larger families. We have a larger family. It just tends toward people wanting to stay longer and not uproot, and they get invested in things like buying to be in a certain school district, for example, where more single family homes tend to be than apartment buildings.

 

Speaker 3 (00:10:18) - Absolutely. You know, you bring that up. My very first investment years ago was a fourplex, kind of a C class neighborhood. And when I bought it, I naively write. I look back at it now, I thought, well, if this is fully occupied, look at what the money will make.

 

Speaker 3 (00:10:33) - The reality was there was a lot of turnover at that particular area. People came and went. It wasn't the top of the line. It wasn't a top tier neighborhood. And so I found that I was always chasing people and it was never in my case, fully occupied. And that tenant turn, that's expensive, as you well know. When you turn tenants, you have lost rent. You got to fix it up. So a single family home. I've had properties that my longest one I had attended stay in one for 15 years. I don't think you're going to find that in a multifamily property.

 

Speaker 1 (00:11:06) - Yeah, that really is rather unlikely. I know in that first fourplex you bought, you tended to do some things where later you learned that those were mistakes, like doing some excessive landscaping and spending a lot on fencing and. For a nice driveway so that you get a better quality tenant. But sometimes you learn you can only attract a certain quality tenant based on the neighborhood that you're already in. That's why oftentimes it's better to buy a lesser property in a better neighborhood.

 

Speaker 1 (00:11:34) - For example. Looking back and we'll get into your journey in a bit about how you've added all these properties, but one takeaway that you've had is that it's better to focus on cash flow at the beginning, more so that appreciation. So therefore getting a Class B or C property, which you probably don't want to stoop too low, or you also might have a bad experience at the beginning. So talk to us about the importance of for many people think they want to start with cash flow centric properties at the beginning and then maybe new build appreciation ones later.

 

Speaker 3 (00:12:03) - I agree. I think when you go into an asset that produces a cash flow, it kind of gives you the fuel to start growing, right? You get some positive reinforcement, but it also gives you the capital to go out and buy more assets. So I think that. BK and maybe call it B to C plus starting there, you know, getting 250 to 300 an asset in cash flow, you get one of those, you get three, you're talking about $1,000, you've got six.

 

Speaker 3 (00:12:29) - Now you're 2000. And at that point, when you get to maybe 6 to 10 properties, the cash flow is now helping to contribute your down payment to go out and buy another asset. So I personally think you kind of start with that maybe as your gateway for your first 5 or 10, get some momentum and then maybe later. So we all know an A-class property in a great neighborhood with great schools. It might appreciate better long term. And so I lean towards building the cash flow on the front end and then moving over into more appreciation as the portfolio grows. So there are merits on both sides. There's not a right or wrong way to do it, but that I think gets your average investor with some momentum. You know, you want to create momentum, you want to start buying assets. And so the cash flow allows you to buy assets faster than waiting for appreciation to kind of carry you up. That rising tide lifts all boats saying that'll happen over time, but get the momentum with the cash flow to help augment and help you buy more assets quickly.

 

Speaker 3 (00:13:33) - I tend to lean towards that approach. Again, no right or wrong, Keith, I'll tell you, I've done it wrong. I started out buying some A-class, about five new homes, and now those have produced good appreciation, but I didn't have much cash flow off them, so I had a little modest cash flow. I do things differently looking back, but I'm still moving forward. Real estate corrects, right? It's like a bad haircut and not that I would really know, but you can get a bad haircut and give it a 4 or 6 weeks and it'll grow out in a way you go and it covers over any mistakes that Barber made.

 

Speaker 1 (00:14:07) - Yeah, real estate's very forgiving over the long term. I kind of think of real estate as a game of attrition as long as you buy, right? Even if there is a bit of a mistake or a stumble, when you have five simultaneous ways that you're paid, you're going to feel that sooner than later. Scott You've really done a great job of scaling up your portfolio.

 

Speaker 1 (00:14:30) - Last I checked, you were in nine different markets. I mentioned the nine states that you were in earlier and you have 18 different property managers now. Can you talk to us more about how you scaled that? You talk to us about how it might be best to get that snowball rolling sooner with cash flow, but how do you scale up and ramp up to where you're at today with 72 doors, 64 of them single family rentals?

 

Speaker 3 (00:14:55) - Oh, what I'll do, Keith, I'll share what I did to kind of get there. And I want to be candid with you and listeners of that. I probably made a mistake doing that. I don't think everybody has to be in that many markets, that many managers. So what I did, quite frankly, it sounds so simple. I said a 90 day target. So I would say I'm going to buy X number of properties. That was a do or die goal. It wasn't an annual goal. If I wanted to buy three in that 90 day period, I would make sure no matter what, I bought three assets.

 

Speaker 3 (00:15:26) - So what happened was I maybe bought in different states to get the job done. I had to buy quickly, right? I was focused on adding my numbers. So for me, having that short term target that I looked at every day in the morning and the night that gave me the focus. So I wasn't looking over three years. I was like, What do I need to do in the next three months? And I really applied everything to doing that. And so you figure if you do a three month period, you pick up three, but you do that every quarter, that's 12 new assets in a year. That's big progress in just annual time frame. So that's what I did. 90 day targets were the game changer for me. Now, you shared kind of the downside of that and that I'm probably over diversified, I would say probably in my level being in three, four states, half the states and maybe two thirds less property managers would be more. Just from a relationship standpoint. So that was a mistake.

 

Speaker 3 (00:16:25) - And, you know, I can correct for it Over time. I'll probably do 1030 ones out of some of the states and consolidate in areas that I like. But that was how I did it is I just identified a lot of Midwest type markets that are good cash flow markets. And when I saw an opportunity, I grabbed it a few of them. Keith I buy one and then the next door, somebody was doing a renovation next door. And there are a few streets, right? Three houses right next to one another as a result of that. So that's kind of been interesting. And then I also find is word got out that I was buying. I had people approach me and say, Look, I've got a package of properties. Would you like the whole package or part of the package? And so that helped me a little bit. So instead of doing one loan on three different properties three times, I do one larger loan purchase, three properties at once. And so it gave me a little bit of efficiency.

 

Speaker 3 (00:17:19) - Now that didn't happen on all of them, but over time I've been doing more of that. My last one this year I bought four assets in Tennessee from one seller as a package deal, and that makes it a little bit easier.

 

Speaker 1 (00:17:32) - Yeah, I want to get into that financing piece shortly, but I think the important thing is you acted, you jumped in and once you do that, more opportunities begin to present themselves. And not everyone does everything the right way. If you've got 18 property managers you're dealing with, which would be a lot. I mean, if you get one monthly email statement from property manager that's getting one a little bit more than every other day, if one would happen to do it that way. I've often talked about how three, 4 or 5 markets to be in that number probably is a good number where you have adequate diversification, yet it hasn't overcomplicated your life administratively at the same time. But with that in mind, Scott, as you're growing your portfolio, what makes you decide what market to buy in next? Oftentimes it's not the sort of thing that you think it will be, just like you had an opportunity to present itself.

 

Speaker 1 (00:18:24) - For example, if you buy in a market and you find that you have a really communicative property manager that you really like in that market, you might buy in that market where you know you've already got a good manager, for example, rather than just what appears to be a good deal on the surface. So what are some of the factors that go into what make you decide which market to select next?

 

Speaker 3 (00:18:43) - Scott I've done a lot of analysis and there are a lot of good markets. You know, one thing, there's no perfect market. You and I probably know 20, 30, 40 good markets where people can make money that have good growing economies, populations growing. There's pressure on rents and appreciation. So I've identified some that I like. Would you just alluded to is really one of the factors now, which is more of a relationship, right? I've consolidated over, so I have a good property manager in Memphis, Tennessee. I've got a great working relationship with them and then also a provider of assets.

 

Speaker 3 (00:19:18) - And so for me, I'm finding having that relationship makes things a little smoother. There's a trust factor when you manage remotely. I haven't seen most of my assets and I do very little in my own home state. So for me, it's really important that I can trust who I'm working with out of state. And so I find having that relationship makes me more likely to purchase more properties in that particular market because I've got that. So Saint Louis, Missouri is one market. Memphis, Tennessee is another. Those are some markets that I like. Now, some of them have great fundamentals. You know, Memphis, number one airport in the entire country, you've got a waterway, you've got a lot of highways that converge there. You've got a lot of industrial Nike's there, Amazon. So there are, you know, kind of a multitude of factors. You know, right now in Memphis, you've got the blue oval development, which is the Ford. They're going to build battery trucks. And I think it's a $10 billion plant they're putting in.

 

Speaker 3 (00:20:18) - Well, that's going to be a huge draw for jobs. So I tend to look for jobs, a diversified economy. I like to see an influx of people coming into the market. So that's the big macro. When I look at my investment, I try to get fairly close to that 1% rule if I can. You know, I don't have to hit it perfectly, but that's kind of a decent benchmark on an asset. I like to get fairly close.

 

Speaker 1 (00:20:44) - You're listening to Get Rich Education. We're talking with super real estate investor on Single-family turnkey Homes, Scott Saunders. When we come back, including how did he do it with the financing and what does he do to manage all this? You're listening to Get Resuscitation. I'm your host, Keith Weinhold. You know, I'll just tell you, for the most passive part of my real estate investing personally, I put my own dollars with Freedom family investments because their funds pay me a stream of regular cash flow in. Returns are better than a bank savings account up to 12%.

 

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Speaker 2 (00:22:45) - Grow your needs.

 

Speaker 1 (00:22:46) - Listen to Get Rich Education with Keith Weinhold. Welcome back to Get Rich Education we're talking with Scott Saunders get rich education listener owner of 64 single family rental properties. He really loves single family and he's still buying now. But Scott, some people have slowed down their buying with higher mortgage rates. They're not adding properties nearly as quickly. But still, really the question I asked myself is where could I invest better dollar today than in rental property? Of course, inflation debases that debt for us, and then when inflation and interest rates drop, I can refinance. And you've added just about 60 properties in the last four and a half years. So tell us about that.

 

Speaker 3 (00:23:39) - I have added a lot of them recently and it started again with setting those goals and I'm keeping up the momentum now. You know, I realized the rates have changed. This is still a good time to be a buyer If you're in certain markets.

 

Speaker 3 (00:23:54) - There are good purchases out there. So I'm able to negotiate a little better with sellers, maybe get a little concession where they'll give a couple points towards my rate or the closing cost. I couldn't get that and the go go days, people are doing that. And the way I look at it is I'm really making an investment now in an asset, right? What is a single family home? It's just a bunch of commodities glass, bricks, wood. And with inflation, we know commodities are going to go up. So I'm locking in that today and I'm going to really use inflation as a tailwind to propel my investing forward, whether that's with rents and appreciation, whether it's debasing my good business debt, I'm using that as a tailwind. And I'll tell you my personal opinion, Keith, I'll go on record on this. People are going to kick themselves a few years down the road when rates go down, whenever that is for not purchasing now, because when rates go down, it's going to create more demand.

 

Speaker 3 (00:24:54) - And I think you're going to lock in today's pricing now and somewhere rates will change. I don't know when, but nobody has that crystal ball. When they do, prices are going to pop up, I think, at that time. And so people are like, oh, I should have bought back in 2023. I don't want to do the woulda, coulda, shoulda. I'd rather make smart baby steps now. Just keep buying chunking along slow and steady and locking in assets today that I know five, ten years from now, my future self is going to be glad that I took action today.

 

Speaker 1 (00:25:30) - Now, I know that you, the listener, must be thinking, yes, I do want to buy more property here. But how to Scott add so many properties so fast and that really guides us into the financing. What do you do for the financing of these properties? Because of course for single people, those golden ticket Fannie Freddie loans run out at ten.

 

Speaker 3 (00:25:52) - One of the biggest things is getting over that hurdle of those lower rates.

 

Speaker 3 (00:25:57) - So I do what's called non QM or what they're also called DSR financing, where the load is made based upon the asset and the cash flow the asset produces. So these are going to be a little bit higher rate, a touch higher. But once you get into them and you get comfortable, you realize this is what all the big players do. People that buy commercial properties, that's how they buy them. So I'm using a rate that's a touch higher, but now I've got a great working relationship. I have one particular lender. I've done 40 loans with them directly, not with the broker. I go direct to the lender, save some money, and I'll literally email over to that lender at night. I'm buying just one of their contract on two more assets, and it's really easy to do the loan. So I find what's called non QM, which stands for Non-qualifying Mortgage, that type of financing. I actually prefer it. It's easier. I don't have to provide every financial statement, you know, updated within the last 30 days.

 

Speaker 3 (00:26:58) - I actually find it's an easier approach. And as long as you look at the numbers and you still have positive cash flow. So today maybe I'm positive $200 where a year and a half ago I might have been positive 3 or 350. So it takes me five assets to get another thousand in cash flow today where I could have done that and maybe three or so a little while back. Okay, I'm just buying more assets, right? I win with that because I'm still locking in more of those commodities in those assets. And so I just that inflation raised that up over time and I just get the benefit of it. So now instead of fighting against inflation, I'm using inflation to move me forward.

 

Speaker 1 (00:27:41) - About dcr loans, debt service coverage ratio loans which are used more commonly in the five plus apartment space area. That is one option for one after they run out of their ten golden ticket Fannie Freddie loans that are at the best rates in terms. Can you tell us more about those terms of the hours? Are you getting a longer term fixed rate? Do you need to put a greater percent down for those?

 

Speaker 3 (00:28:08) - Most of mine are relatively close to a conventional loan.

 

Speaker 3 (00:28:12) - You can get those with 20% down. I have chosen in some cases to put down maybe 25%, but I'm getting in almost all situations 30 year fixed rate financing. To me, I want to fix that debt service and have it locked in. So that's really important. So I'm a big believer in 30 year fixed rate. I did have during Covid right at the beginning and I had some assets under contract. You couldn't get a loan. It was very difficult. March, April, May and I had deals closing. Then I had lender that I had to get the lender that they required me to put down 40%. So I had to put a bigger down payment to get it done. At the time, Keith, I was like, Oh, I'm not getting as much leverage. My money's not working quite as hard. Now, that was several years ago, and a few of those because they were smaller assets. I've got little small loans on them where and I want to be careful because I know your view on debt.

 

Speaker 3 (00:29:11) - I'm going to be paying some of them off, not to have them free and clear, but to use those as a resource as collateral. So I can go to a bank and say, Look, I'm going to pledge this collateral. Let's say ten homes that are free and clear, you give me a loan and now I'll use that loan to do some other things, probably like hard money, loans, private lending. So I'm going to use those paid off assets as a tool for me to do some financing, some creative financing deals in the future. So it's a means to an end. It's a stepping stone to go a little bit deeper and use the banks money for me to make more money in the future. So that's kind of what I'll be doing there.

 

Speaker 1 (00:29:51) - All right. It sounds like you still want to keep most of them leverage. Are you talking about the advantages of having a few of them paid off and therefore really so that you can borrow against the value of those paid off properties? So really, you're just paying them off to effectively use leverage again in a different way?

 

Speaker 3 (00:30:08) - Precisely.

 

Speaker 3 (00:30:09) - That's exactly what I'm going to do is bundle those together and those become collateral. So exactly. I'm going to relieve them maybe in a different fashion. So I am a huge fan of good business debt. It's one of those things is concepts. So you got to wrap your head around it at the beginning because we're beat into our brains that, you know, debt is bad, but good business debt is not only good, it's great. It allows you to multiply your efforts faster than you could with your own capital. So to take the bank's capital and use that to get ahead, that to me is is a smart move 100%.

 

Speaker 1 (00:30:50) - So you've got this robust portfolio spread across several different states. You've even admitted probably dealing currently with more managers than you even want to. And it makes one wonder, is there any particular type of management software that you use? Now, of course, each one of your individual property managers, 18 of them, they have their own management software. But how does that work? How do you manage all this? Do you really get 18 monthly statement emails from 18 property managers each month?

 

Speaker 3 (00:31:19) - I do actually get 18 different emails and statements a month.

 

Speaker 3 (00:31:23) - I'll tell you what I've done, Keith. I'm very low tech. I'll be honest. I use Excel to track things and what I've done, which is kind of a fun thing for me. My youngest daughter, who, believe it or not, actually owns. She bought her first single family home at age 16. She's been watching me. She actually helps me now track my rental income and work with the financials. So I've hired her in my real estate business. She now gets all the statements she puts in, puts everything into my spreadsheet and then runs the reports for me. So it's been kind of neat in that I get the data I need, but I'm also training my kid about real estate. And not only that, I actually include her on my emails, so she has a real estate specific email. When I reply to my property manager about an issue, I'll copy her so she sees my thinking how I do it. So I'm trying to be strategic, realizing I'm not going to be around forever.

 

Speaker 3 (00:32:21) - Someday my kids are going to get a pile of real estate and I want them to know what to do with it when they get it, that they walk into it and they're like, okay, I kind of know what to do versus selling it all off and then giving the money to Wall Street, which is I would hate to have that happen. So I'm. Try to bring them along.

 

Speaker 1 (00:32:41) - Despite the fact you use Excel. You talk about how you're relatively low tech. I'm, in fact, impressed with that because it demonstrates to me that, you know, the proper formulas to use in Excel and which numbers actually matter to drive your current and future investment decisions. So that actually tells me a lot that you really understand what's going on behind the scenes and you don't have it too automated. Also, when you're involved like this, which is a sense that you just cannot get being a stock investor where your profits are really coming from and where they're really not coming from. Having one of your children involved that is huge at building this legacy wealth piece like we talked about on the show last month and helping ensure that there is generational wealth in your family, like with your daughter.

 

Speaker 1 (00:33:26) - Now, she understands where it comes from and what it takes. So I absolutely love that piece. Scott We talk about what drives investment decisions. We talk about how you've acquired and you've held some properties. What about the time to sell? For example, I like to buy turnkey investments that already have the renovation done, or they're just brand new and oftentimes like to just hold them 7 to 10 years because in 7 to 10 years, in the last three years, it's been as short as three years, those properties have gone up in value enough where the leverage ratio was cut such that I either want to do a cash out refinance or a 1031 exchange, not get too emotional about properties, only hold them seven years, rarely if ever, more than ten years. What are your thoughts with the whole time and the duration?

 

Speaker 3 (00:34:09) - I'm fairly similar to you on that. I do. My preference is turnkey. That's what most of my portfolio is. So I'm buying stuff that's already been renovated after, you know, 10 to 15 years.

 

Speaker 3 (00:34:21) - And that window, that's when you're going to start to see roof issues, the furnace, the AC. So my plan would then be to do a 1031 roll out and get more turnkey. So let's say I take one single family home that might allow me to go out and buy 2 or 3 more single family homes, probably ten years max would be what I would be doing. And I did that. I rolled out A1A couple of years ago. I had one single family in Arizona exchanged out of it, and I bought four in Saint Louis, one in Memphis. I got a much better return on my investment. So to think of if you take my portfolio today, right in the 60s, if I can roll out of that and go up to, let's say 120 or 130, that's going to give me some significant scale and benefits. So that would be my plan. I'll never sell and pay the taxes. I always do it 1031 or I'll refinance to harvest equity.

 

Speaker 1 (00:35:17) - If you're a brand new listener and you don't know what a 1031 tax deferred exchange is, the short story on that is it basically allows you to roll your profits from appreciation into another property, either multiple properties or a larger property is what it usually is with you being able to 100% defer the tax.

 

Speaker 1 (00:35:37) - And there's no limit to the number of times you can do that. Therefore, it should become a tax free event. You can defer that tax your entire life by trading up with that. 1031 also called a 1031 like kind exchange. As you go along, I know that you've got some great philosophy, Scott. I mean, first of all, you're a goal driven guy, so you have these longer term goals. And you mentioned you also have these shorter term milestones, like a 90 day goal on your way to those longer term goals. For one that hasn't heard the acronym before, Goals should be smart, that is specific, measurable, achievable, relevant and time bound. That's what differentiates a goal from a wish. So tell us about your goals and how that drives this. Scott.

 

Speaker 3 (00:36:22) - My duals. I do every three months. I do have a short term goal and I've got some For this year. I'll probably pick up 15 properties. I think I'm halfway through the year. I'm on track, so I'll do that.

 

Speaker 3 (00:36:34) - I've got some long term goals. One of them just before I left on vacation a couple of weeks ago, I'm under contract on a property in Tuscany, Italy, so I can have what I call a lifestyle asset. So one of my goals would be to get a few lifestyle assets. I want to buy a place in Steamboat Springs, Colorado, enjoyed some of the year, rent it out other times. So one goal would be picking up a few of these. That would be something that I can enjoy and my kids can enjoy, but it also produced a return. So it's a twofer. I gave money on it and I get to enjoy it. That's a big long term goal of doing that. So Tuscany, I like to do a place in Sardinia, Italy, which is the most beautiful beaches, gorgeous. The mountains may be a place in Florida, so I like to pick up over the next few years, maybe a property a year in that category. That's just something that's fun.

 

Speaker 3 (00:37:25) - It doesn't make any sense to work really hard and save if you can't enjoy life, right? I mean, that's the whole goal is to get free where you can enjoy your time and enjoy spending time with the ones you care about. So I want to transition that way into Tastic.

 

Speaker 1 (00:37:42) - Yeah, spending time in Tuscany was part of perhaps the best week of my life personally, part of your philosophies. It's not just having tangible goals, it's you call something rather than an ROI in ROA, and it's that the return on a realisation that I talk about.

 

Speaker 3 (00:38:01) - Yeah, what that is, you know, so many people have heard of ROI, which is a return on investment and we kind of get bottlenecked around that, right? Looking at our return, you know, 7%, 8%, 1619 And there's a lot of focus. What I tend to do, and this actually came through a good friend of mine, Rick ROA, is return on attention. Yeah. Looking at our life from a time standpoint.

 

Speaker 3 (00:38:25) - So when we look at ROI, we're looking at money dollars return on attention. We're now measuring things in time, right? What do we have the free time to enjoy without having to be distracted with following the stock market every day? And is it up or down? Or what's the Fed doing? So return on attention to me is actually more important than the ROI. And I know we're on a podcast talking about real estate, so surely making wise investment decisions is important. But if I look at where I am in life, more important to me is my return on attention than my return on my investment. So I want to have my attention free that I can enjoy what's around me while I'm young enough and vibrant enough to enjoy it. So I just got back from travel and Saint Lucia had a wonderful time out there. I love to travel. I typically do an international trip probably every quarter or so. I'm taking my son to Morocco, did an African safari. We did Iceland swam with whale sharks last year.

 

Speaker 3 (00:39:30) - Portugal. I want to spend time with the people I care about and travel is a part of that and having my attention freed up so I can do that. That actually is a big principle. It's a big objective is having my time freed up and my attention freed up.

 

Speaker 1 (00:39:47) - Wealth is measured in time, not dollars. You and I sure do agree there. Scott is we're about to wrap up here. I know you often talk to people about the importance of taking action and just sort of getting those base hits and how do you think that people would have more economic freedom if they just purchased 5 to 10 single family rentals?

 

Speaker 3 (00:40:07) - Absolutely. And it's not that hard, right? You get over the first one's the hardest and then you get a little momentum after that, Right. The first one hard, the second one, you've just doubled the size of your real estate portfolio. You go to four, you quadrupled your first one. And I think the magic number to hit is get to five and add five assets.

 

Speaker 3 (00:40:28) - You typically have enough rental income coming in that it's pretty close to being self-sustaining. So if you have one vacancy, you're going to typically have pretty much enough rental income to do it. So getting to five and then pushing on to 10 or 15, that can change so many people's lives. Just that small thing for the average American. If you had ten single family rental homes, you'd be light years ahead of the people that are doing all the 401. And Wall Street racket stuff.

 

Speaker 1 (00:40:59) - That's so on point. Yeah, you are really doing the things. Scott, before I ask you how our audience can learn more about you, do you have any last thoughts? Anything else you'd like to discuss maybe that did not come up with scaling up this terrific Single-family rental portfolio and how that's enhancing your life.

 

Speaker 3 (00:41:18) - I'll give two quick tidbits to kind of wrap things up here. Keith, it's been great visiting with you. I've been a longtime follower and just love all the information you bring out and the resources, so it's great to visit with you in person.

 

Speaker 3 (00:41:30) - Two things. One, I would say use the tax code, use guys like Tom Lehrer write, read those books, figure out how to master the tax code. A lot of people don't do that. They're intimidated by taxes and the IRS go after that and it'll give you more capital to grow your portfolio. The other one, I would say, and I think you alluded to it, is don't be paralyzed by inaction. Don't do that analysis paralysis thing of is this good or not? My whole philosophy is I never try to hit a home run. I don't need the best performing investment. I just need a good investment. And you know, in a portfolio, I've some that have been stellar and I've had 1 or 2 dogs like anybody would. When you get a bunch of them, my feedback would be, if you're not in the game of real estate, put all your focus on to getting that first one and then jump to your second translated into action rather than overanalyzing. So on your show, you've got a lot of great resources of turnkey providers.

 

Speaker 3 (00:42:29) - In many of the markets that I'm in pick market, take action and jump in. You'll be so much farther ahead by taking action than by studying and running formulas and spreadsheets. Get into the game, buy the first property, buy the second push with some short term goals, and then all of a sudden you're using all of these economic forces to get ahead in life and they're not fighting against you. And I think what that does is now you're swimming downstream, so to speak, rather than fighting upstream. That's what all these inflationary forces that you talk about all the time do. So get in, start swimming downstream, join it. I want to see more people in America that have freedom and have some independence and are benefiting from the economic forces rather than getting crushed by those same economic forces.

 

Speaker 1 (00:43:21) - And it starts with just getting your first base hit. Well, this has been terrific, Scott. How can our audience learn more about you?

 

Speaker 3 (00:43:29) - I've got a website up. It's my name, so it's Scott R Saunders.

 

Speaker 3 (00:43:35) - Sanders And that's got a little more background. And I've got for people that are interested, I put together a course of how to kind of get into single family and scale it and grow it. So for those that is appropriate, I'm happy to be a resource in that department there at that website.

 

Speaker 1 (00:43:54) - Scott has been such a great chat. Our audience is going to benefit from it. Thanks so much for coming on to the show.

 

Speaker 3 (00:44:00) - It's been a blast. Thanks, Keith.

 

Speaker 1 (00:44:07) - Yeah, great stuff from Scott. We do a lot of things the same way as far as having remote managers in multiple markets. I've also never seen most of my properties in person, nor do I need to. We often buy multiple properties at once. I like to buy at least two single family rentals at a time to make things more efficient. But big picture, we are not postponing life and are traveling to great places. As I'm fond of saying, some delayed gratification is good, but the risk of too much delayed gratification is denied gratification, which is the road of the 401 plan, which is also known as a life deferral plan.

 

Speaker 1 (00:44:49) - Scott is currently meeting with our provider of Chattanooga Properties on Marketplace. It is rare to see Crest buying properties in Jerry Marketplace. I guess I'm actually not sure we might have to turn him onto it so that he can quit one of those part time jobs. He's got pretty cool part time jobs, though. He's not breaking his back like a longshoreman. Yeah. Jerry Marketplace. That is where you find the right properties that really are just never going to make it out onto the open market at all. And they're the ones that are conducive to this strategy. Lower cost properties that have a high ratio of rent income to a low purchase price, they're typically fully renovated with a tenant from day one where an experienced manager also manages it for you from day one, if you so choose. And it's free. Just creating one log in one time like thousands of others have, gives you access to nationwide providers. We've even got free coaching for you there if you so choose. Knowledge really isn't power in itself. Knowledge plus action is what's powerful.

 

Speaker 1 (00:45:56) - Get started at GRC marketplace.com until next week I'm your host Keith Winfield. Don't quit your day dream.

 

Speaker 4 (00:46:07) - Nothing on this show should be considered specific, personal or professional advice. Please consult an appropriate tax, legal, real estate, financial or business professional for individualized advice. Opinions of guests are their own information is not guaranteed. All investment strategies have the potential for profit or loss. The host is operating on behalf of Get Rich Education LLC exclusively.

 

Speaker 1 (00:46:35) - The preceding program was brought to you by your home for wealth building get rich education. Com.

 

 

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Higher interest rates are cracking the economy—failing banks and failing commercial RE loans. With many expecting rates to go much higher, what else will break?

Keith Weinhold, the host of the Get Rich Education podcast, discusses the current state of interest rates and their potential future trajectory. 

Jim Rogers, legendary investor with an estimated $300M net worth, returns. He shares his insights on interest rates and inflation. 

We discuss the impact of inflation on various asset classes, including real estate, and the potential for higher interest rates in the future. 

The conversation also touches on topics such as agricultural real estate, the oil market, central bank digital currencies, and the role of gold and bitcoin as alternative forms of wealth storage. 

Overall, the episode provides valuable insights into the current economic landscape and its implications for investors.

Title [00:01:56]

Introduction and overview of the current state of interest rates and market distortions.

Title [00:05:03]

Discussion on the unpredictability of interest rate predictions and the acknowledgment of inflation by Jerome Powell.

Title [00:08:28]

Explanation of the historical trend of interest rates, the recent rise in rates, and predictions for future rate movements.

Title [00:12:09]

Jim Rogers on Borrowing Money and Interest Rates

Discussion on the benefits of borrowing money at low interest rates and the prediction of interest rates going higher.

Title [00:14:27]

Jerome Powell and the Possibility of a Soft Landing

Questioning whether Jerome Powell can raise interest rates enough to control inflation without causing an economic crash.

Title [00:18:41]

Inflation, Interest Rates, and Real Estate

Exploring the impact of inflation and interest rates on real estate investments and the potential risks for property owners.

Topic 1: Agricultural Real Estate [00:22:21]

Discussion on the opportunities in agricultural real estate due to erratic weather patterns and reduced yields in various crops.

Topic 2: Oil Market [00:24:16]

Conversation about the current state of the oil market, the decline in known reserves, and the potential for higher energy prices.

Topic 3: Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs) [00:26:04]

Exploration of the proliferation of CBDCs and the implications of a digital currency controlled by central authorities, including potential restrictions on spending and increased government control.

Title [00:32:06]

History of Money and Gold Standard

Discussion on the different forms of money throughout history and the transition from silver to gold as the basis for the US currency.

Title [00:32:47]

The Diminishing Value of the Dollar

The prediction that the value of the dollar will continue to diminish over time and the suggestion to invest in real estate instead of saving in dollars.

Title [00:33:33]

Invest in What You Know

Advice for investors to only invest in what they know about and not rely on advice from others, emphasizing the importance of knowledge and understanding in investment decisions.

Resources mentioned:

Show Notes:

www.GetRichEducation.com/457

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Complete episode transcript:

 

Speaker 1 (00:00:01) - Welcome to GRE. I'm your host, Keith Weinhold. Interest rates rose fast last year, but a lot of experts think that they're going to go substantially higher from today's level, including our guest today, who is a legendary investor. How much higher will rates go and what's driving them higher today on get rich education.

 

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Speaker 1 (00:01:10) - Join the Freedom Family and become a real estate insider. Start on your path to financial freedom through passive income. Text Family to 66866. This is not a solicitation and is for accredited investors only. Please text family to 66866 for complete details.

 

Speaker 2 (00:01:33) - You're listening to the show that has created more financial freedom than nearly any show in the world. This is Get rich education.

 

Speaker 1 (00:01:56) - Welcome to GRE! From Mount Washington, New Hampshire to Mount Whitney, California, and across 188 nations worldwide. I'm Keith Whitefield and you are listening to Get Rich Education. Hey, it's great to have you back. Interest rates are not high today. They're just moderate by historic standards. But of course, the rapid rate of increases last year was faster than it's ever been in our lives. And that's what introduces market distortions. Today's guest is going to talk about that with us later. That's the legendary Jim Rogers. And it's public information that he has an estimated $300 million net worth. When Jim talks, people listen. When he was here with us in 2019, he was emphatic that interest rates were going to go much higher.

 

Speaker 1 (00:02:43) - He was completely correct. And few others were saying that then. In fact, when he's with us here shortly, all recite the interest rate quote that he stated here on this show back then and get his forecast from this point on as well before discussing interest rates a quarter recently ended. So let's whip around the asset classes as we do here at times, because you need to be able to compare real estate with other investments. The first half of this year, the S&P 500 was up a fat 17%. I'm just running to the nearest whole percent here. The tech heavy Nasdaq index had its best first half of the year in four decades. Gold was up 6%. Oil was down 34%. Bitcoin up an astounding 84% the first six months of the year. And that's partly because it really bottomed out near the beginning of this year per Freddie Mac. The 30 year fixed mortgage began the year at 6.5%, and now it's up to 6.7 for real estate. Since it lags, we've got a realtor.com year over year figure.

 

Speaker 1 (00:03:48) - The median listing price was up 1% to 440 K financial institutions aced their Fed stress test that they call it that measures how banks are holding up during a downturn. Q1 GDP was revised way higher than they previously calculated, so the economy is doing even better than many thought. And the number of Americans that are filing for new unemployment claims that fell the most in 20 months. So therefore, the economy is still hot by a lot of measures. Well, that puts more upward pressure on interest rates. Well, an interest rate that can be thought of as your cost of money, and they can even affect factors beyond the economic world. For example, in demographics, I mean, historically high interest rates, they've actually been a mild impediment to people's very migration and mobility. Understand the Fed's interest rate predictions and really all of their predictions have been awful, just awful. A long line of them. Fed Chair Jerome Powell's inflation is transitory. I mean, this is the latest notable one. He said that in 2021.

 

Speaker 1 (00:05:03) - I mean, though, look on your phones weather app, you don't trust the weather forecast ten days into the future. So I don't know why we would listen so intently, even reverentially to what the Fed economists predict for the next month or the next year. I mean, the economy can have as many or more variables than the weather. I'm going to assume. And these people know nothing Volcker, Greenspan, Bernanke, Yellen, Powell. They know nothing but see, they act like they know. So I just sort of wish they'd say we don't know more often. And by the way, this is why I do not predict interest rates like virtually everyone else. I know nothing on that. I joke around and I say I will let someone else be wrong and go ahead and predict interest rates. It's really hard to do now. A little credit to Jerome Powell later on, though, he did acknowledge that they ought to stop calling inflation transitory. So I think the word transitory has different meanings to different people.

 

Speaker 1 (00:06:08) - To many, it carries.

 

Speaker 3 (00:06:09) - A time, a sense of of short lived. We tend to to to use it to mean that that it won't leave a permanent mark in the form of higher inflation. I think it's it's probably a good time to retire that that word and try to explain more clearly what we mean.

 

Speaker 1 (00:06:26) - Another credit to Powell in today's Fed is that they'll tell you what interest rate decisions they plan to make at upcoming meetings, which is certainly a welcome departure from the opaque Alan Greenspan where you needed to try to translate his Fed speak. So if the Fed rate goes higher, then you can generally expect other rates to go higher. The prime rate mortgage rates, credit card interest rates, automobile loans and more. Jim Grant. Who's been running the interest rate observer since 1983. He recently said that we are embarking into a long era of higher interest rates. He says that that's due to inflation and asset price speculation and of course rates wouldn't move up in some sort of straight line from here. During recessions, interest rates fall.

 

Speaker 1 (00:07:14) - Well, in that case, if you had recessions during a longer term up spell, where you'd have is higher interest rate lows in a recession. Now, starting in 1958, something strange happened in America. In a recession, prices did not fall into many. This marked the beginning of the age of inflation. That was 65 years ago. So you're pretty used to that. If there is a recession, prices don't fall. All right. Well, after that period, rates went up, up, up until they peaked in 1981. And then they went down. Rates fell from 1981 until 2021, and now they have begun to rise again. Well, because artificially low rates that were set to deal with Covid, because they're still recent, I mean, many people have this sort of muscle memory of zero zero interest rate policy. Maybe you do, too. And it was an all you can eat buffet table of credit. And that buffet table was open for business for ten years. Well, now that we've hiked up the Fed funds rate from 0 to 5%.

 

Speaker 1 (00:08:28) - All right. Well, back on June 28th, Powell said that more restrictive policy is still the COB because they're continuing to fight inflation. And that includes the likelihood of quarter point interest rate hikes at consecutive meetings and two or more increases by the end of this year. Now, our frequent macro economist contributor here on the show, Richard Duncan. He says there is an unusual divergence between weak credit growth and solid economic growth. And that was probably brought about by the surge in savings from people's government checks during the pandemic. Well, if that divergence persists, then the Fed might have to raise rates even more than the half percent plus that they suggested is necessary by the end of this year. And Duncan says that the stock market is not prepared for the Fed rate to go from 5% today up to 6%. And if it does, the stock market could be in for a painful correction in the months ahead. Now, to my point about interest rates being hard to predict, some economists think that rates will generally fall after this year as well.

 

Speaker 1 (00:09:34) - So some people see it that way, but I think there are more now predicting that they will rise rather than fall. As the legendary investor that predicted that interest rates were going to go way higher when he was back here with us in 2019 is he joins us soon. We could have some challenging audio quality on this remote to Singapore, but people really hang on what Jim has to say. That's next. I'm Keith Wild. You're listening to episode 457 of Get Rich Education. With real estate capital Jacksonville. Real estate has outperformed the stock market by 44% over the last 20 years. It's proven to be a more stable asset, especially during recessions. Their vertically integrated strategy has led to 79% more home price appreciation compared to the average Jacksonville investor since 2013. Genevieve is ready to help your money make money and to make it easy for everyday investors. Get started at GWB real Estate. Agree that's GWB Real estate agree Jerry Listeners can't stop talking about their service from Ridge Lending Group and MLS 42056. They've provided our tribe with more loans than anyone.

 

Speaker 1 (00:10:49) - They're truly a top lender for beginners and veterans. It's where I go to get my own loans for single family rental property up to four plex. So start your pre-qualification and you can chat with President Charlie Ridge personally, though, even deliver your custom plan for growing your real estate portfolio. Start at Ridge Lending Group. Hi, this is Russell Gray, co-host of the Real Estate Guys radio show. And you're listening to Get Rich Education with Keith Reinhold. Don't Quit Your Day Dreams. Today's guest is one of the most esteemed celebrated and legendary business moguls, investors and financial commentators of our time. He co-founded the Quantum Fund, one of the world's first truly global funds. He's created his own commodities index, his own ETF, and he is a popular author of a great many books. Welcome back. For your third appearance on Jim Rogers case. There's no reason to go into all that. I'm just a simple Earth. That's why people like listening to you, because you rather plain spoken on what some people deem to be some pretty complex concepts.

 

Speaker 1 (00:12:09) - So it's good to have you here joining remotely from where you live in Singapore. You were here with us in both 2019 and 2021 and in 2019 here on the show you said and I've got the quote right here, if you can borrow a lot of money for a long period of time at low interest rates, rush out and do it right now, That's what you said. That was prescient. And also in 2019 here on the show, you said, and I quote again, interest rates are going to go much, much, much higher over the next few decades and it is going to ruin a lot of people. And here we are today. So what are your thoughts with regard to interest rates and inflation here? Jim.

 

Speaker 4 (00:12:52) - You make many mistake. Please. It's made many, many mistakes and I'm sure hope I live long enough to make many, many more mistakes. Yes, interest rates are up. They're up substantially. It sent them, but it is not over yet. Interest rates will go much, much higher because we have friend, not just we, but central banks everywhere have printed huge amounts of money.

 

Speaker 4 (00:13:17) - And whenever you print lots of money, inflation, college interest rates go higher and the usual amount of money inflation gets very high. And that always leads to central banks having to raise interest rates too high level because they don't know what else to do. In 1980, before you were born, interest rates on central US government Treasury bills, 90 day Treasury bills, interest rates were over 21%. Gosh, that's not a typo. 21% because inflation was out of control and we had to take drastic measures, which meant you have to do something like that again.

 

Speaker 1 (00:13:58) - That would be interesting. So to bring us up to where we are right now, the federal funds rate is basically gone from 0 to 5% since last year. Mortgage rates rose from 3% to 7% just last year alone. And a lot of nations are jacking up interest rates. Turkey just decided that they are going to raise interest rates 6.5% all at once. And some people don't think that is enough. So here we are. I mean, you talked about what happened about 40 years ago.

 

Speaker 1 (00:14:27) - Can Jerome Powell engineer a soft landing? Does he have any chance of doing that where he can raise rates enough to quell inflation but yet not crash the economy?

 

Speaker 4 (00:14:37) - No, of course not. First of all, in 1980, America was still a creditor nation. Now with the largest detonation in the history of the world. Yeah, that's staggering. And they go up every week, and the amount of money that's been printed is beyond comprehension. I don't know how they can solve this problem without really getting drastic and taking interest rates to very high levels back in 1980. The Federal Reserve had the support of the president. The president told him to do whatever you have to do because the head of the central bank was all over. It was a smart man. He knew what he had to do, but he made sure he had political support before he did it. Now, the president did not get reelected because Volcker did what had to be done. We don't have as smart a central bank head now as we did then.

 

Speaker 4 (00:15:31) - And the amount of money that's been printed is overwhelming. And America's debt with the largest detonation in the history of the world and we were a creditor then. So there are things that are different. So he would be worried if I were you. In fact, I am worried, so I'll leave it to you. But I'm more.

 

Speaker 1 (00:15:50) - Well, that's right. Carter was a one term president. We'll see if Jerome Powell ends up breaking too many things. If Biden only ends up being a one term president, then as well, whether it's his fault or not, oftentimes the onus could fall on him. You bring up all this debt, the greatest detonation in the history of the world. And maybe the first time you and I spoke back in 2019, I don't know what our debt was then. Maybe it was 25 trillion. Now it's more than $32 trillion. Maybe just as concerning. More our debt to GDP ratio is about 121%. So I guess really what I'm getting at, Jim, is how will we know that things break and things are already breaking in a world of higher interest rates with failing banks and more stress in the commercial real estate market.

 

Speaker 1 (00:16:37) - So what else is going to break?

 

Speaker 4 (00:16:40) - Jimmy Carter did say to go do whatever you have to do and I will go you. I doubt Biden would say to the central bank, do whatever you have to do without or you. And I doubt if the central bank Powell, the head of the central bank, now really comprehend what he's gotten us into. You know, he kept saying all along, oh, don't worry, everything is under control. The secretary of the Treasury, Janet Yellen, he's got Ivy League degrees, also kept saying, don't worry, everything is under control. We know what we're doing. We do have different people this time, not many Paul Volcker's that comes along in history. To me, the indications are going to get worse. They will not solve the problem until we have a very, very serious problem. I'm not optimistic. Having said that, if I'm not selling short or anything else at the moment, I'm worried about the markets in a year or two. But at the moment, since nobody seems to understand what they're doing at the Reserve or in the presidency, we can have okay times for a while, but the ultimate problem gets worse and worse and worse unless you deal with it.

 

Speaker 1 (00:17:56) - I don't know whether the economy has been slowed down enough yet or not. So in the midst of higher interest rates, we continue to create an awful lot of jobs. But there's a greater body of work that shows a lot of these jobs are just jobs that have recovered, that were lost in the pandemic.

 

Speaker 4 (00:18:13) - The economy is not bad in the US, economy is still strong. You mentioned office. You'll have a lot of jobs. ET cetera. Yes, we have inflation, but inflation is not as bad as it was in the 70s. And you look out the window and everything seems okay. At the moment. I'm just worried about what's coming down the road because I know that some throughout history, if you print a huge amount of money, you create big problems.

 

Speaker 1 (00:18:41) - We are avid real estate investors here directly investing in real estate. And as we have this chat about inflation and interest rates is real estate investors, ideally we would have low interest rates and high inflation. However, those two are positively correlated.

 

Speaker 1 (00:18:57) - You typically have both high interest rates and high inflation or low interest rates in low inflation. That positive correlation.

 

Speaker 4 (00:19:05) - Inflation always in the history has led to higher interest rates for a variety of reasons, which I'm sure you understand. If history is any guide, interest rates are going to go much, much higher eventually. And then you know very well I interest rates are not good for property, not good for real estate investors. They never have that. Even if you don't have any big debt and you don't have that problem or mortgage problems or anything, maybe your neighbors do. And if your neighbors have problems, that means their property prices will go down and that's going to affect you because you're nearby and everybody will say, oh, that property is collapsing. What about teeth? And teeth can say, Oh, no, don't worry about me. I don't have any debt. They'll say, okay, you don't have any debt, but we can buy property in your neighborhood. Very cheap because your neighbors have problems.

 

Speaker 4 (00:20:06) - That gives you a problem.

 

Speaker 1 (00:20:08) - That's right. Fortunately, Americans have plenty of protective equity in their properties despite these higher rates. You know, residential real estate here in the second half of 2023 is still doing just fine, probably because there's still a scarce supply of residential real estate. You've got more people working from home driving demand for residential real estate. But of course, office real estate has probably been hit the worst, crunched by high interest rates and the work from home trend both. So really that's where we've seen so many of the cracks in the real estate world, especially around the office space. Where else might we see cracks as interest rates continue to go higher like you think they will?

 

Speaker 4 (00:20:46) - Well, again, throughout history, when interest rates go higher and it attracts investors and money and people take their money out of property or stocks or whatever with their money and say yielding is you can buy the Treasury bills at 21%. That's attractive to a lot of people. And that's, you know, risk free and it's very high return.

 

Speaker 4 (00:21:12) - So as interest rates go higher in attracts money from other investment classes in other areas, it's very simple. People are not that dumb. We know that if we can get high interest rates safe, they will do it. And we have to take a risk and the stock market or something else for that spike to do.

 

Speaker 1 (00:21:33) - Sure. Higher rates just incentivize a few more people to be savers as they can now safely get above 4% in these online bank accounts today, where they are getting pretty close to 0% just a couple years ago. We talk about real estate investment. Oftentimes here we talk about improved property on a piece of land. But of course, the more traditional use of real estate is growing crops on a piece of land. And I know you've been a long time agricultural investing enthusiast and a thought leader in agricultural real estate investing. What are your thoughts about agricultural real estate, since in these past few years really we've seen more of these erratic weather patterns that have resulted in things like reduced peach yields in Georgia and reduced ores yields in Florida.

 

Speaker 1 (00:22:21) - Something else, Jim, we've seen reduced coffee yield in Panama, that last one, that's sort of a fractional ownership investment that we featured on the show here. Fractional ownership investment in coffee farm parcels in Panama. That's created some problems with their yield. Of course, you can see that reflected in the low levels of the Panama Canal as well that looks to threaten the economy. But what are your thoughts about agricultural real estate in this erratic weather that we've had? Perhaps that's an opportunity if that's reflected in lower agricultural real estate prices?

 

Speaker 4 (00:22:52) - I'm optimistic about agricultural land prices because, you know, for a long time, nobody wants to be a farmer. The average age of farmers in America is 58. The average age in Japan is 66. Mean, I can go on and on. Although the highest rate of bankruptcy in the UK is in agriculture. So agricultural disaster worldwide for a long time and disaster usually leads to great opportunities. If you know how to drive a tractor, if you should go buy yourself some farmland and become a farmer, if you like getting hot and sweaty every day, it can be a very exciting way to live.

 

Speaker 4 (00:23:38) - I just see I know from history when something gets very bad for a long time, it usually leads to a great opportunity.

 

Speaker 1 (00:23:48) - Well, you are so experienced in commodities trading in the number one, the most traded commodity in the world is oil. And it seems that the oil price really isn't very high now, especially when you adjust that for all the inflation that we've had the past few years and of course the oil market and the oil price drives the prices of so many other downstream products. So what are your thoughts with regard to the oil market and where we're headed there? Jim.

 

Speaker 4 (00:24:16) - I know that known reserves of oil have peaked and are in decline just about worldwide. Does it mean it has to continue going up? But unless somebody finds a lot of oil quickly in accessible areas, the price of energy undoubtedly will go higher. The price of energy is going to stay high. Oil and natural gas, whether we like it or not, and I know we don't like it, but unless you wave a magic wand and you know, in Washington, they keep doing things that they don't help the supply of energy, they they damage it because they put restrictions and controls on energy.

 

Speaker 4 (00:24:55) - So unless something happens somewhere in the world pretty quickly, energy is not going to be cheap.

 

Speaker 1 (00:25:01) - Renewables like solar and wind may be the future, but oil has a high degree of energy density that a lot of those renewables still don't. We're talking with legendary investor Jim Rogers. He's joining us from Singapore. You talked about all this dollar printing, which has created inflation. And in order for central governments and central banks to get more control over people, discussion with Cbdcs central bank digital currencies has really percolated quite a bit in the past few years here. And with your international perspective, your world view. I'd like to know what your thoughts are on Cbdcs, whether you see a proliferation of it, where you see it starting for those that aren't aware of it. Central bank, digital currencies. That gives a government central control where all money is digital issued by the central authority, where your money can be stored digitally on your phone so that a central authority like a bank or a government can have control over you.

 

Speaker 1 (00:26:04) - For example, if your local economy is sagging, well, the government could tell you through your cbdc, your central bank, digital currency, for example, that you need to spend 30% of your income within a ten mile radius or else your money expires. Or this would give central authorities power to do something like say, you know, there's a curfew so you can't spend any of your money after 9 p.m. or this is where they could push ESG, environmental, social and governance agendas through targeting your spending or targeting your spending through diversity, equity and inclusion and getting more control that way through Cbdc. So what are your thoughts with the proliferation potentially of Cbdcs, Jim?

 

Speaker 4 (00:26:44) - We're all going to have digital money in the future, whether we like it or not. It already happened and China's way ahead of it. You can't take a tax in China with money. You have to have your digital money. Your own money. Yeah. And the ice cream in China with money. So it is happening. And nearly every country is working on computer money.

 

Speaker 4 (00:27:06) - Let's call it whatever you want to put your money. And governments love computer money is cheaper. It's easier. They don't have to transport it all they love. But mainly they love it because they've complete control over all of us. As you point out, they know everything you do. They'll call you up one day and say, Keith, you've had too much coffee this month. Stop drinking so much. Whatever it is, they love control and they love knowledge. I don't, but they do. So this is the world we're coming to. None of us will have money in our pockets except on our own. And yes, that's the new world. It's not far away in 2023. Okay. Anything that's not good for the citizen, Washington will catch up very fast if it's good for them. So no money is coming.

 

Speaker 1 (00:28:00) - Yeah. Let's hope the cbdcs don't turn up the coffee for anybody. This might make one wonder, you know, what can they do about it is you see more cbdc sentiment building in other nations with them potentially doing something like this.

 

Speaker 1 (00:28:15) - Is it a smart thing then for someone rather than store dollars, to instead borrow dollars by having loans on real estate? Or is it better to just completely be out of the government system of currency issuance or at least park more of your prosperity outside of the government system of dollars and euros and pesos and riyals and yen, and instead into a non governmental alternative like gold or Bitcoin. Would that be a better path? What are your thoughts there?

 

Speaker 4 (00:28:44) - When the government says, okay, now this is money, they're not going to say, okay, but if you want to use that money over there, use their money. We don't care. Governments love control and they love Monopoly, especially when it comes to money. So there may be competing types of money that you dollars now anyway. I guess you and I could swap gold coins or seashells or something if we wanted to. Most of the people in the US use government money and that's the way it's going to be. Whether we like it or not, the government has the monopoly.

 

Speaker 4 (00:29:22) - They have the guns. And if you can say, All right, I'm not going to use government money, I'll say, okay, but you're not going to be able to pay your taxes, then you're money. You're not going to be able to buy a driver's license or pay your other fees with other money. You're going to have to use government approved money.

 

Speaker 1 (00:29:42) - Well, the government tried to shut down ownership of gold like they did previously or Bitcoin, which would be unprecedented. I'm talking about the United States government, especially in this case or other developed economies.

 

Speaker 4 (00:29:54) - But when the US took away the right to go in 30s, that was gold was the basis for. Monetary system. It is much, much, much more important to the world economy. Then gold is not that important in the world's economy now. It's important, but so is right. So a lot of stuff. So I doubt if they will take gold away again. I don't see them outlawing digital money currency unless it becomes very successful and competitive to the government.

 

Speaker 4 (00:30:30) - Then they'll do. They always have.

 

Speaker 1 (00:30:33) - Bitcoin's market cap is still under $1 trillion, but increasingly you do have more and more politicians that own Bitcoin and there are a few advocates for Bitcoin there in Congress. So if that's the change you want to see, maybe you want to vote in people that are promoting the holding of prosperity outside of US dollars really by being Bitcoin advocates in Congress there. That's one thing that you can possibly do. But we talk about gold and silver. You know, I really like the fact that it is scarce. Just like Bitcoin has scarcity. There will never be more than 21 million Bitcoin. And of course gold and silver have a finite supply.

 

Speaker 4 (00:31:14) - Well, but first of all, please remember many digital currencies, not Bitcoin, but many have already disappeared and gone to zero.

 

Speaker 1 (00:31:23) - And there are some Bitcoin critics out there that say something like, well, there have been more than 20,000 cryptocurrencies. So what makes Bitcoin any better? Well, I think the fact that a lot of these cryptocurrencies that have little or no utility or mean coins, so if they come by and then they die, I don't think that should diminish Bitcoin in its utility in any way.

 

Speaker 1 (00:31:42) - Just like there have been over 20,000 stocks in history. And if a new stock comes by that doesn't have any value or any fundamentals and it fails, it doesn't diminish the market cap leader Apple one bit at all. So I don't think it's a valid comparison to say that just because a new cryptocurrency comes and goes that shouldn't diminish or knock Bitcoin at all, just like it shouldn't Apple, if a flashy new stock comes by and dies?

 

Speaker 4 (00:32:06) - Well, throughout history, money has come and gone. People use seashells, people use cows, People use lots of things, glass beads all over the world. You know, the US was founded on a silver standard at 1792. Silver was the basis for the US currency that later changed to gold.

 

Speaker 1 (00:32:27) - What's so interesting, Jim, written in our United States Constitution, it stated that gold and silver shall be money, but of course it's not. In Nixon completely departed the last vestige of that in 1971. Yet there was no amendment written to the Constitution to supersede it.

 

Speaker 1 (00:32:47) - Gold and silver shall be money when it comes to currency and how one measures the prosperity in the United States. It is the dollar. We know it's going to continue to be the dollar for some period of time yet, and you can't get too many certainties in investing. And really the second near certainty we can get is that the dollar is going to continue to diminish in value. So that's why rather than save it, we borrow for real estate. Jim, wrap it up here. In this world of higher inflation, though, it's come down in higher interest rates where you tend to think they will keep going higher. What should one do, maybe especially a younger person today, You know, any direction that you would have for a younger person, a younger investor, or maybe that's even investing in themselves and developing skills themselves. So what are your thoughts?

 

Speaker 4 (00:33:33) - They're all investors. Young, old, whatever should invest only in what they themselves know a lot about. If you want to be successful, don't listen to somebody on the TV or in the magazine or even on the Internet.

 

Speaker 4 (00:33:48) - You know your program. They should invest only in what they know about you. Listen to somebody and she said, Buy X and you buy x and x goes up. You don't know what to do because you don't know why you bought it. Right? X goes down, you don't know what to do because you don't know why you bought it. So if you want to be successful, just stay with what you yourself know a lot about. You might say that's boring. Be boring If you want to be successful, be boring. You know, invest in what you know. And I cannot tell you how important that is for all investors, young or old.

 

Speaker 1 (00:34:31) - Yeah, well, to sum it up on rates, Jim Rogers said that governments have debt, therefore governments will keep printing. So then governments will raise rates to keep inflation in check. Remember, just last year, a lot of people didn't think that Powell would have the guts to raise rates so high. Well, he sure did. Who else did I ask about how high interest rates will go? Will, I asked you on our get Recession Instagram poll, the majority of you think.

 

Speaker 1 (00:35:01) - That the Fed rate will exceed 6%. And again, it's about 5% now. All right. Well, then with mortgage rates around six and three quarters now, perhaps they'd go up to about 8%. But of course, mortgage rates don't track the Fed rate in lockstep. They more closely follow the yield on the ten year note. Now, this is really interesting for real estate investors when inflation is low. So interest rates, well, in those environments, real estate people seem to love that. But you know what? Those two things pretty much cancel out. Well, since we're big borrowers as real estate investors, you get less benefit from low inflation and more benefit from low interest rates, just like high inflation and high interest rates cancel out because now you've got your debt being debase faster and a greater interest expense to pay. So really it's a wash either way. If for some reason real estate investors seem to be more concerned about high interest than they are thinking about the benefits of the high inflation and in fact, real estate investors, hey, we can totally have our cake and eat it too, because when inflation goes high, well, you can stay fixed on your low interest rates.

 

Speaker 1 (00:36:16) - And then when inflation and rates go low, you can refinance. So savvy real estate investors then in fact benefit from the inflation and interest rate dance. This kind of tango that they do where they stay together. If you enjoy the show here each week, do you mind doing something as a give back that takes less than two minutes of your time? Leave a podcast rating and review. The fastest way to do this is just perform a search. Either search how to leave in Apple Podcasts Review, or how to leave a Spotify podcast review. I'd be grateful that helps others find the show. And we've got a bunch of terrific episodes coming up for you here on Gray, providing you with free content and reliably showing up for you every week. I would greatly appreciate your podcast rating in review. Again, it's easiest to simply search how to leave an Apple Podcasts Review or how to leave a Spotify podcast review until next week. I'm your host, Keith Weintraub. Don't quit, dude. Adrian.

 

Speaker 5 (00:37:24) - Nothing on this show should be considered specific, personal or professional advice.

 

Speaker 5 (00:37:28) - Please consult an appropriate tax, legal, real estate, financial or business professional for individualized advice. Opinions of guests are their own information is not guaranteed. All investment strategies have the potential for profit or loss. The host is operating on behalf of Get Rich Education LLC exclusively.

 

Speaker 1 (00:37:52) - The preceding program was brought to you by your home for wealth building Get rich education.com.

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Are you curious about the direction of rents and property prices? 

In this episode of Get Rich Education, host Keith Weinhold dives into the absolute 100% certainty of a housing crash and how mortgage rates affect home prices. 

Keith is interviewed by Ken McElroy.

He also shares the importance of real estate in reducing taxes and increasing income. 

Keith discusses the attractive pricing and inflation in Ohio, and the benefits of investing in new build properties. 

He even touches on the increasing gold purchases by central banks and the potential impact on personal finances. 

Don't miss out on these valuable insights and learn about the prospects for a housing crash. Tune in now!

Title [00:01:37]

Advertisement for Freedom Family Investments

An advertisement for Freedom Family Investments and the benefits of investing in real estate.

Title [00:02:00]

Introduction to Get Rich Education

Keith White introduces the podcast episode and talks about the longevity and popularity of the show.

Title [00:03:54]

Real Estate Price Gains Since the Start of the Pandemic

Keith White discusses the cumulative home price appreciation in different regions since February 2020.

Title [00:12:33]

Discussion on the attractiveness of real estate pricing and the impact on renters.

Title [00:15:08]

Keith's personal experience of starting with a fourplex and the concept of house hacking.

Title [00:19:38]

Exploring the house hack model as a solution to affordability issues and leveraging other people's money for real estate investment.

Title [00:22:12]

Investing Out of State

The speaker discusses the benefits of investing in real estate out of state and the importance of choosing the right market and team.

Title [00:24:58]

Importance of Prioritizing Market and Team

The speaker emphasizes the importance of prioritizing the market and team before considering the property in real estate investing.

Title [00:27:19]

Supply Crash vs Price Crash

The speaker explains the significance of the housing supply crash that occurred in April 2020 and how it affects property prices and homelessness.

Title [00:31:51]

Inflation Measurement Challenges

Discussion on the difficulty of accurately measuring inflation due to various factors such as personal preferences and hedonic adjustments.

Title [00:34:05]

Housing's Impact on Inflation and Interest Rates

Exploration of the significant contribution of housing to the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and its implications for future interest rate changes.

Title [00:35:38]

Paradox of Rising Mortgage Rates and Home Prices

Explanation of the counterintuitive relationship between rising mortgage rates and increasing home prices, with historical data supporting this trend.

Title [00:42:28]

Advantages of Investing in New Build Properties

Discussion on why it makes more sense now to look at new build properties than in the recent past.

Title [00:43:49]

Feasibility of Building vs Buying in Different Markets

Comparison of the cost per unit for acquiring existing properties versus building new ones in different markets.

Title [00:46:28]

Turnkey Rental Properties and Scarcity as an Investment Theme

Exploration of the concept of turnkey rental properties and the importance of investing in scarce assets like real estate, gold, and bitcoin.

Topic 1: Central banks buying gold [00:51:38]

Discussion on how central banks are buying gold as a way to store value and hedge against the inflation and debasement of the US dollar.

Topic 2: Increasing geopolitical uncertainty and gold [00:52:36]

Exploration of how geopolitical events, such as trade agreements and conflicts, have led to increased uncertainty and a rise in the price of gold.

Topic 3: Reasons why home prices won't crash [00:56:46]

Explanation of several reasons why home prices are unlikely to crash, including a shortage of homes, strict lending guidelines, government intervention to prevent foreclosures, and the slowing of new home construction due to higher interest rates.

Resources mentioned:

Show Notes:

www.GetRichEducation.com/456

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Complete episode transcript:

 

Speaker 1 (00:00:01) - Welcome to Get Rich Education. I'm your host, Keith Weinhold, with a crucial update on the direction of rents and property prices. Then a discussion between Ken McElroy and I where I posit to his audience about why a housing crash is 100% certain and why what mortgage rates do to home prices is exactly the opposite of what everyone thinks. And more today on Get Rich Education. Taxes are your biggest expense. The best way to reduce your burden is real estate. Increase your income with amazing returns and reduce your taxable income with real estate write offs. As an employee with a high salary, you're devastated by taxes. Lighten your tax burden. With real estate incentives, you can offset your income from a W-2 job and from capital gains freedom. Family Investments is the experience partner you've been looking for. The Real Estate Insider Fund is that vehicle. This fund invests in real estate projects that make an impact, and you can join with as little as $50,000. Insiders get preferred returns of 10 to 12%. This means you get paid first.

 

Speaker 1 (00:01:08) - Insiders enjoy cash flow on a quarterly basis, and the tax benefits are life changing. Join the Freedom Family and become a real estate insider. Start on your path to financial freedom through passive income. Text Family to 66866. This is not a solicitation and is for accredited investors only. Please text family to 66866 for complete details.

 

Speaker 2 (00:01:37) - You're listening to the show that has created more financial freedom than nearly any show in the world.

 

Speaker UU (00:01:44) - This is Get rich education.

 

Speaker 1 (00:02:00) - Working from Hot Springs, Arkansas, to Palm Springs, California, and across 188 nations worldwide. You're listening to one of America's longest-running and most listened to shows on real estate. This is Get Rich Education. I'm your host and my name is Keith Weinhold. And with 456 weekly episodes, you probably know that by now. Hey, I'm really grateful that you're here. Carefully chosen buy and hold Real estate is not day trading. Rather it is decade trading. Yeah. I'm a decade trader. Perhaps you're one two. You just haven't thought of it that way before.

 

Speaker 1 (00:02:41) - When I was recently with Ken McElroy in person in his studio in Scottsdale, Arizona, we produced a terrific media interview and conversation together that I'm going to share with you later today. But first, you know, it's not just you're out of control. Trader Joe's grocery bill. The entire world seems to be losing its battle with inflation. U.S inflation is still double where the powers that be want it. The UK recently stunned markets will need jacked up interest rates a half point to the highest level in 15 years. The ECB, Australia, Canada, Switzerland and Norway. They have all announced recent rate hikes. But Turkey Turkey is raising rates and astounding. 6.5%. Yeah, you heard that right. 6.5% all in one fell swoop. That's how much interest rates are going up there. Yet many say that it's not enough for them to get on top of their wildly out of control inflation. Now, let's get into a few real estate numbers here before my fantastic chat with real estate influencer in Great Guy Ken McElroy.

 

Speaker 1 (00:03:54) - Now here's a great set of real estate numbers since inflation has hit real estate too. Okay, we'll talk about rents in a moment, but let's talk price first with credit to John Burns, Real Estate Consulting. Let's look at American real estate price gains since the start of the pandemic. Okay. So this is not annual. This is cumulative starting in February of 2020 up to today. Here we go. There is a national home price appreciation figure and then it's broken into ten regions. And I think this regional breakup is kind of quirky, and I'll tell you why in a moment. But nationally, since the start of the pandemic, national real estate is up 36%. But let's stop and think about what that means for a moment. Well, since that time, February 2020, which is when these figures are all tracked back to, has the real rate of inflation also been 36%? I'll just say that the answer is yes. Well, then real estate has no inflation adjusted gain in all that time.

 

Speaker 1 (00:05:03) - Well, here are the ten regions cumulative gain since that time. Okay. Going from lowest to highest, Northern California is up 27%. The Northeast up 29%. The northwest is up 32%. Southern California up 33% cumulatively since that time, about three and a half years here. The Midwest is also up 33%. The Southwest up 38%. Texas up 40%. The Southeast up 46%. North Florida up 50%. A lot of castle markets there in north Florida, too. And the top appreciating region, according to this stat set since February of 2020 with 56% cumulative home price appreciation is South Florida. Yeah, up 56%. And now some of those regions mentioned like in the West, they were actually up more than this a few months ago and they've given back a little bit of their gain. But that is a great stat set. The only thing that seems quirky about the methodology to me is that you've got Florida and California, each with two stat sets, yet the entire Northeast is lumped in together without, say, breaking out New England.

 

Speaker 1 (00:06:26) - But I don't know, There might be a reason for the odd amalgamations there. I might look into that. Maybe that's just some regional bias or some concern there. Since I am a Northeastern guy, I think that by now, any long time listener knows that I'm from Pennsylvania and have lived most of my life there. I'm in Pennsylvania every year and I like to avoid hot summers, so I spend my summertime and more time in Anchorage. AK So fantastic home price appreciation in the past three and a half years, partially demand driven. Partially inflation driven, you know, three plus years ago, a lot of people, but never me, a lot of people, including real estate influencers, they said that the pandemic would be awful for both real estate and stocks because people would lose their jobs and lose their homes and businesses would shut down. Oh, no. We talked here about agree with it or not, the government's safety net is on its way and it came with the PPE and the Cares Act and everything else.

 

Speaker 1 (00:07:29) - I mean, Biden won't let people lose their homes. That's what was going on back then. And then in late 2021, I stated Jerry's National Home Appreciation forecast that home prices would rise between 9 and 10% in 2022. They ended up rising 10.2%. And then you remember that late last year I forecast that there really wouldn't be much of any national home price movement this year. Okay, 0%. I am on record right here on the show saying that then and here we are near the year's midpoint. And I like how that forecast is looking. And it was interesting. Late last year, Realtor.com, they predicted 5.4% national home price appreciation for this year. Well, just last week they revised it down to a drop of 6/10 of 1%. Okay. So basically they've gone to 0% as well, much like I forecast late last year. But of course in our core investor areas of the inland in the south, home prices, they are rising just a little this year. What about rents? That's something you might care about more.

 

Speaker 1 (00:08:42) - CoreLogic They tell us that rents for both single family homes and apartments are up 4% year over year, and that's really unremarkable. That's just the historic long term norm. And it's really been interesting how the rent growth rate for single family homes and apartments has just been remarkably similar, like shadowing each other. But the real story is that rent growth has really decelerated because national rent growth, it peaked at about 14% a year and a half ago. And now among Single-family rental homes, what you'd expect in inflation is happening. High end property rents are up just 2% because they're the least affordable. And then the more affordable low end rents are up 6%. And like anatomy, there are so many ways to parse real estate. There are so many ways to dissect the frog here. So let's look at rental growth by region. And it's from that chart that I shared with you in last week's Don't Quit Your Daydream Letter. Rents are down 2% in the West. They are up 1%. In the South. They're up 5% in the Midwest and they're up 5% in the Northeast as well.

 

Speaker 1 (00:10:02) - And what's been persistently steadiest is the Midwest price growth in rent growth. I mean, they're in the Midwest. That is like as stable as the clover honey that's in your pantry right now. And also, did you know that honey is the only food that doesn't spoil? Did you know that? Yes. Yeah. It's also stable, so it doesn't need mixing either. Stable like Midwestern real estate. And that's the reason that's had that best ratio of high rents to a low purchase price, which is really that key metric that you care about as a real estate investor. Now, for example, let's take a look at this specific property in Exact Street address from Marketplace. I mean, this is a great example. This is 224 Baltimore Street in Middletown, Ohio. Middletown is between Cincinnati and Dayton. Okay. This duplex here has a monthly rent income of $1,400 total from both sides. The price is $139,900. And this duplex is substantially rehabbed. And the $1,400 rent that's broken down by $800 comes from the two bed one bath side and $600 from the one bed, one bath side.

 

Speaker 1 (00:11:26) - The duplex is 1680 eight square feet. It's in a classy neighborhood and the rental status is that both sides are already leased. Okay, So when you have an existing property like this, sometimes you have that as the advantage. It's leased and on a duplex when you have both sides leased, you know what questions I would want to know before I buy a duplex like this? What is the rent payment history of those tenants on each side of the duplex and where are they employed? I mean, one might have been paying the rent. But if they're employed at the malls, pop up, stand for 4th of July fireworks or something, Well, I would want to know that. Or if their employment is more stable than something like that. So this 140 duplex is something you could buy with a 25% down payment. So even with closing costs, you're in there for under 50 K. So yes, they're in America's seventh most populous state of Ohio and might take on a property like this. Is that this duplex that's for you? If you're more interested in cash flow than you are appreciation.

 

Speaker 1 (00:12:33) - I mean, my gosh does pricing like this almost make you feel like inflation missed Ohio? That's how it feels in hey, that's what attracts renters as well. And you can find their property in more like them, including an increasing proportion of new build property nationwide from Florida to Indiana to Texas to utah@marketplace.com. Coming up in this interview with Ken, where I was a guest on his show, you're going to hear me say some things that you might have heard me say before, but I sort of say them in a different way when someone else sees interviewing me and I talk about including why there is a 100% certainty of a housing crash in a few other surprising things. And then at the end I discuss some new things that I have not discussed previously, including what I personally champion and invest in myself outside of real estate. We don't run with the herd on the mainland, but you know, here in Jerry, we are not an island to ourselves either because the dust from the herd affects us. Our investing philosophy is on a profitable, I suppose, peninsula, if you will.

 

Speaker 1 (00:13:48) - That's why I definitely say things that you don't expect to hear in this interview. And you know what? If someone only says what you expected to hear, that would probably be a disappointment and a waste of your time and you wouldn't learn anything. A critical real estate conversation between Ken McElroy and I, straight ahead. I'm Keith Reinhold. You're listening to Get Rich Education. With real estate capital Jacksonville. Real estate has outperformed the stock market by 44% over the last 20 years. It's proven to be a more stable asset, especially during recessions. Their vertically integrated strategy has led to 79% more home price appreciation compared to the average Jacksonville investor since 2013. Genevieve is ready to help your money make money and to make it easy for everyday investors. Get started at GWB Real estate. Agree That's GWB Real estate. Agree. Jerry listeners can't stop talking about their service from Ridge Lending Group and MLS 42056. They've provided our tribe with more loans than anyone. They're truly a top lender for beginners and veterans. It's where I go to get my own loans for single family rental property up to four plex.

 

Speaker 1 (00:15:08) - So start your prequalification and you can chat with President Charlie Ridge personally, though even deliver your custom plan for growing your real estate portfolio. Start at Ridge Lending Group. This is Richard Duncan, publisher and Macro Watch. Listen to get rich education with cheap wine and don't quit your day drinks. Hey, everybody. I'm here with Keith Reinhold. Welcome back. Hey, it's so good to be here. It's interesting. I was last here in January of 2021. And remember, Ken, that's when we talked about how you can profit from inflation. Inflation was only 1.5% back then. So for all the viewers and listeners, had they watched that, they really were profited from that surge of inflation, we should go back and check that one out again, you know, because I remember that discussion was fabulous. And now now that's kind of the hot topic, the hot topic for sure. So Keith has a great company. It's called Get Rich Education. Before we go down that road, let's talk about how you started, because most people, you know, they struggle with just getting started.

 

Speaker 1 (00:16:22) - And I know you started with a fourplex. Yes. And you know, this is something very actionable for you, the listener, the viewer there. You can start off like I did. I didn't have a lot of money when I started out. I think that's a common investor's story. So how could I do more with less? And, you know, I was in Anchorage, Alaska, at the time when I was about to buy my first fourplex building, and I didn't have the inclination to know how to remodel places or be a landlord or anything like that. And, you know, Ken, it's a quote we've all heard, but it bears repeating the circle of friends I had fallen in with Harkins, the Jim Rohn quote, You are the average of the five people that you spend the most time with. Take your five closest friends income level. Take their educational attainment level, take the way they dress your five closest friends. If you want to change yourself, change your five. In two of my five in Anchorage, what I call pretty aspirational guys and two of my friends, they had made their first ever property a fourplex building with just a 3.5% down payment.

 

Speaker 1 (00:17:25) - So I learned how to do this from them. And you can still do this today. All you have to do is live in one of the units at least 12 months and just have a minimum credit score of 580. You can do that with a single family home, duplex, triplex or fourplex. That's how you can start with a bang and a small down payment. Yeah, we call that house hacking. Yeah, yeah, yeah. We talk a lot about this and I don't think people really realize, you know, and if you move into one side of a duplex and you buy a duplex with with this low money down and the lower credit score, you're basically you might not have a lot of cash flow if you live on the other side. But what you are is you're eliminating that huge expense that might have been for rent or something else, right? That's right, 100%. You know, everybody has their wacky landlord story. So I bought my first property living in one unit of the fourplex, renting out the other three.

 

Speaker 1 (00:18:16) - And like a duplex, like you said, where you might live. Did you tell me you were the owner? I because that's always thing. Yeah. You know, after a while after I got the new tenants in there, actually after I had moved offsite to another place, I didn't really want to admit I'm the owner. They ask all kinds of crazy things, but, you know, everything didn't go perfectly. For example, you know, shortly after I moved in, it was time for a tenant to pay the rent. It was the first that was due. They said they pay it the fifth. I was like, Oh, yeah, sure. Okay, whatever. Well, of course they didn't. I had to replace them. And you know how I qualified my next tenant in that vacant unit? What the qualifications were. Three females applied. They were attractive. So I let him move into the unit next to me based primarily on the fact that they were attractive. Well, that didn't work out very well.

 

Speaker 1 (00:19:00) - They had parties and they did not invite their landlord to the party. So everyone's got their wacky landlord story that's mine, but that's how you can start big. It is a good way to do it. And I think I don't think a lot of people realize that they can do that. So a lot of people I know are struggling with these affordability issues. So, you know, we've seen since our last podcast, you and I did, we've seen massive inflation, massive rent growth, obviously massive interest rate growth, which has driven people's mortgages up and doubling people, the mortgage payments up, plus we have all the inflationary components that I just mentioned. This is the best time to look at that house hack model because, you know, why wouldn't you grow.

 

Speaker 3 (00:19:38) - With inflation if you can do it with a with a two unit or four unit? Right now, there are some restrictions for for units and underwriters there something where if you go over that, it's a different kind of loan.

 

Speaker 1 (00:19:50) - That's right.

 

Speaker 1 (00:19:51) - Four units is the most you can do with that FHA loan in 3.5% down. So it's single family home, duplex, triplex or fourplex. And if you have VA Veterans Administration benefits, you can use that same plan with zero down. Believe it or not. It's a great way to start with the bank. Yeah.

 

Speaker 3 (00:20:07) - So you guys really need to look into this. If you could replace your living expenses large of the largest one, which is obviously typically rent and utilities and all that, then why wouldn't you?

 

Speaker 1 (00:20:20) - Yeah. And you know, here's the thing. Here's the takeaway. And I didn't understand this until I had owned that first fourplex for a couple of years. I think we've all learned we've all been influenced by the mantra that you don't want to invest with your money. You can build wealth profoundly by ethically employing other people's money. We're talking about doing it ethically. Providing people with housing that's clean, safe, affordable and functional. With that fourplex like I just described, I was using other people's money three ways at the same time.

 

Speaker 1 (00:20:50) - And you can do it too, because I use the bank's money for the loan and leverage. I use the tenant's money for the income that you were just talking about to offset all the building expenses and the mortgage payments. And then thirdly, I was using the government's money for very generous tax incentives, use other people's money three ways at the same time with the loan for income property, that's really going to accelerate your wealth building.

 

Speaker 3 (00:21:15) - That's right. That's right. And can you with that also do it with the down payment? That might be a fourth way.

 

Speaker 1 (00:21:21) - There are creative ways. For example, I know with FHA, sometimes you can get a gift. So that's a very astute question.

 

Speaker 3 (00:21:27) - Yeah. So that's another thing that a lot of people don't think about is, you know, I know with the FHA program, they're going to be looking at you. But there are there are ways to get gifts.

 

Speaker 1 (00:21:38) - That's right. And really use other people's money for the entire thing with keep using other people's money all that you can.

 

Speaker 3 (00:21:45) - The point is, guys, all can be OPM or other people's money. And that is the point. And so if you can't look into that, then it's now just an excuse. So let's talk about like you've done a very successful job of going out of state, out of the network and, and buying real estate. How have you done that? Because a lot of people are freaking out around, you know, how do I do I stay local? Do I go out of state? There's a lot of things to consider.

 

Speaker 1 (00:22:12) - I don't invest in my own local market. In fact, can I sell my last local meaning local to Anchorage, Alaska? I sold my last local apartment building last year. It's the first time in 20 years since I bought that first fourplex building. I don't own any local properties. I do all my investing out of state in investor advantage markets in the Midwest and South. And I know to some people it's scary to go out of state for the first time. You know, for some reason with stocks, people feel quite comfortable with, you know, buying stock for a company.

 

Speaker 1 (00:22:41) - They don't even know where that company's headquartered. But with real estate and something called turnkey real estate investing, that's one way to go across state lines. But really, here's my mindset in getting comfortable without estate investing, this is how I think of it. Can The property is only the fourth most important thing in real estate investing, and if you're thinking about investing, you often start by thinking about, okay, what would my next property be? It's important. But there are three things more important. Number one is you. What do you want real estate to do for you? This is what I like to share with people. Can Secondly is what market are you in? Thirdly, what's the team of professionals, especially your property manager, that you choose to surround yourself with? And then fourthly and only fourthly is the property. So let's go through that. It starts with you. What do you want real estate to do for you? Or are you looking for cash flow, which is common, or appreciation or tax advantages or a lifestyle benefit? Like maybe you want to live in it yourself.

 

Speaker 1 (00:23:37) - Once you've got that figured out what you want real estate to do for you, the market is the next most important thing. There is more risk with being in a little ho dunk market of 6000 people where half the employment is tied to the zinc mine than you think. So I like to be in larger metros have a diversification of economic sectors, something that you really excel in. Can So the market's at second thing because you need to have a place that's going to be filled with tenants. And when you buy your property, you need to have a reasonable expectation that 18 months down the road you're going to have another tenant that's going to be able to come in and fill that property. And then the third most important thing is the manager, your team. I mean, a bad property manager would drive a good property into the ground because you want this to be relatively passive. And fourthly and only fourthly is that property. And you know what happens. Can I see this happen? So often people get a 100% backwards.

 

Speaker 1 (00:24:30) - They go for three, two, one. First, they get all excited about a property and buy it because it has pretty blue shutters. Then they try to figure out if there's a good manager in the market because they don't like to get texts from tenants. And then secondly, they try to figure out the market that they bought in and it's too late. And then they go back to number one, which you're just so far out of line. And this is why a lot of people say that real estate doesn't work. So, again, the property is only the fourth most important thing. It starts with you market and team first. Yeah, I.

 

Speaker 3 (00:24:58) - Find that key. They do go for three, two, one all the time. Right? It drives me nuts because, you know, as you know and most professionals go one, two, three, four. And I think what happens is if when they get to one, they're they're figuring it out. You know, they need you to start there because it certainly clears up the vision, right?

 

Speaker 1 (00:25:18) - Yeah, 100%.

 

Speaker 1 (00:25:19) - And, you know, you intrinsically know this, but you just haven't thought it through before. Like, for example, you already know that the market is more important than the property. A giant mansion in a swamp outside Charleston, West Virginia, is not worth much, but yet a tiny 400 square foot efficiency apartment in the Tribeca neighborhood of Manhattan. Can be worth an awful lot. It's just reinforces the fact that the market's more important than the property and a lot of people get it wrong and always.

 

Speaker 3 (00:25:46) - Has been and always will be because you can you can screw up a purchase in a market that's going like this and you'll still look like a star.

 

Speaker 1 (00:25:55) - Yeah. And this will be true a decade and maybe even a century know. Yeah.

 

Speaker 3 (00:25:59) - So that's why the market is so important. So let's talk about the most controversial thing here, which is why there is 100% certainty, 100% of a housing crash. This is a I heard you talk about this and we talked a little bit about it for the podcast.

 

Speaker 3 (00:26:16) - I said, let's just wait, wait, wait, Let's talk about it on the podcast.

 

Speaker 1 (00:26:20) - There is a 100% certainty of a housing crash. And one might be wondering, first of all, how could you say that no one has complete clairvoyance to know the future? And the reason there is a 100% certainty of a housing crash in this era is because it already occurred. It happened in April of 2020, More than three years ago. It was a housing supply crash, not a price crash. In fact, the fact that we have had a supply crash really hedges against any sort of price crash. So using Freddie Mac data and I shared the chart with you before I came over to this video here so that you could see the backup. There are so many ways to go ahead and measure the available supply of homes, but about 1.5 million is what you'll see, Fred. The Federal Reserve economic data, about 1.5 million has historically been the amount of available homes going back to 2016. It began to fall after that with what happened in the health crisis.

 

Speaker 1 (00:27:19) - It plummeted in April of 2020 to 600,000 units and it still hasn't rebounded and it's continued to fall. So it's a 60% supply crash, 1.5 million down to less than 600,000 now. And that's what hedges against a price crash. That's why prices are continuing to stay buoyant at whatever demand level. The supply is really low, and that helps keep a bid on property. And really, I'd like to share with you the profundity of the fact that we've had a supply crash, not a price crash. I mean, think about this. We're the most powerful nation in the world, by so many measures, were the most powerful nation as far as political positioning and our military and our currency and our brand, the most powerful nation in the world. And we have trouble housing our own people. I mean, we're talking about food, shelter, safety, Maslow's hierarchy of needs, base level stuff here. So it's actually a bigger deal then a price crash. If you think about it, you may very well see more more homeless people in your in your hometown, for example.

 

Speaker 1 (00:28:25) - So the crash already occurred. A supply crash, not a price crash. Yeah. Yeah.

 

Speaker 3 (00:28:29) - It's important distinction, I think. I think people really need back up from this a little bit and understand where things are headed. You know, we have affordability problems. We definitely have homelessness issues creeping up. And so what really, really challenged everybody were these federal funds, increases in interest rates that went up. So all of a sudden, you know, we've also had the largest delta between rents and the the average mortgage price. So you got mortgages here. So rents and mortgages were kind of trending along at a pretty, you know, pretty equal amount. But now because of the whole prices that went up and the interest rates went up, there's a big, big gap between rents, even though rents have gone up. So that's also keeping people in their houses because they've got the 6%, let's say five, 6% interest rates, but they bought them at three. So they have this trapped equity, right? So so if you own a home that's 500 grand and you you have 3% on it, you're not going to move.

 

Speaker 1 (00:29:39) - Right? No, it's the mortgage interest rate lock in. Yeah, And that's a really astute point, Ken, because this plays in to the national dearth of supply on Iraq, 1.5 million available units down to 600,000. I talked to just lay people in everyday homeowners that have become landlords because they say, I don't want to sell my home. And it's 3.25% interest rate. So when I move out of it, I just want to hold on to that loan and rent it out. In the United States, you can't move your mortgage along with your property like that. So it's that interest rate lock in effect, that property, rather than coming up for sale, which would increase supply, doesn't it stays put. And almost two thirds of mortgage borrowers in the United States have a mortgage rate of 4% or.

 

Speaker 3 (00:30:24) - Less, a staggering number. It is. So I always tell people, Keith, you know, when I was growing up, cash was an asset, right? That was a liability. But now it's the opposite.

 

Speaker 3 (00:30:35) - Cash is now a liability because inflation. If you're if you have it in the bank is running faster and harder than what you're getting in interest. And now that debt at 3%, let's say, is an asset, you would actually be selling the property and you'll be getting rid of that asset. You can't borrow at 3% today because that is OPM or other people's money like we talked about.

 

Speaker 1 (00:31:00) - Right, Right. And if I borrow from a bank, say I'm a borrower and I want to take a loan from you. Well, of course, if I can do that at an interest rate, that's less than the rate of inflation. I want to do that because it's profitable. And how the mechanics of that work actually is when I repay Ken the bank in this case, every month that dollar debases on him faster than his interest can accrue on me. That's profitable for you if you can find that it's getting a little harder to find. But you can in some situations, still get interest rates lower than inflation.

 

Speaker 1 (00:31:33) - And inflation is such a fluffy number. We know that the CPI is manipulated with substitution and weighting and things, but if you can borrow at less than real inflation, that's exactly the transaction you're profiting from.

 

Speaker 3 (00:31:43) - What do you think real inflation is? Because I, I'm all over the Internet trying to figure this out, you know, and I go to all the shadow stats and all the things.

 

Speaker 1 (00:31:51) - Yeah, that's good that you're in shadow stats. There isn't really a good accurate way to measure inflation. I mean Ken and I a for next door neighbors were going to pay different rates of inflation. Say one of us is a vegetarian and the other eats beat then inflation in the price of steak affects one of us, but not the other. So if he commutes more than I do, gasoline prices affect him more than me. It's very difficult to pin down what the real rate of inflation is. There are hedonic reasons as well. Hedonic means pleasure seeking. So, for example, if home values go up 10% in a year, but now it's more common for homes to have quartz countertops in them a year later and they didn't have that in the homes of yesteryear.

 

Speaker 1 (00:32:33) - How do you adjust inflation for that? Because you're getting a better standard of living with quartz countertops. So this is why can and anyone has such a hard time pinning it down to what's the real inflation number. It's really nebulous.

 

Speaker 3 (00:32:45) - And I do know it's more.

 

Speaker 1 (00:32:48) - We do know it's more than what the CPI is reporting. How much more? No.

 

Speaker 3 (00:32:52) - One. I know it's true. It's all over the map. But I got to tell you, man, things are creeping up. You know, we were you know, my wife and I were you know, we just go to dinner and it's 100 bucks now. I mean, there's all these things that are there a lot more. But one thing is for sure, guys, if you can have an interest rate less than inflation, you're beating the market. That's the important thing to understand. And that's why, you know, go go the way back to Rich dad, poor dad with Kiyosaki. He was way ahead of his time when he said cash is trash.

 

Speaker 3 (00:33:27) - And, you know, savers are losers. And he doesn't mean that you are a loser. What he means is savers are losing money as compared with inflation. Back then, it was 2%. So now it's obviously more. Right?

 

Speaker 1 (00:33:41) - Yeah. And you know, really with inflation, I think the word is noticeable. No one talked about it when it was about 2% these past few years when it was right around the Fed target. It isn't until it became noticeable that it really became a thing. And you know, what do they say? What's Walmart greater say? They no longer say hello at the door. Instead, they just apologized for what's about to happen to you in there. It's noticeable.

 

Speaker 3 (00:34:05) - I noticed I was digging into the CPI or the Consumer Price Index recently for a video I was doing and I saw that housing was 44% of that number.

 

Speaker 1 (00:34:14) - Yeah. Between rent and owners equivalent rent, those two measures contribute to the CPI.

 

Speaker 3 (00:34:19) - So that's a lot. So think about that because I know, you know, what does that mean To me? That means that the Fed is not done increasing rates because, you know, I guess now they're reporting it at five.

 

Speaker 3 (00:34:33) - But if 44% of that 5% is housing in theory, then it looks to me like they're going to they're going to clip away at more of these federal funds rates. Right. What do you think?

 

Speaker 1 (00:34:46) - That's right. A lot of people think the Fed pivot will come later this year. The Fed pivot means when they stop hiking, which is increasing rates and begin to lower rates. I've got something really almost pretty trippy, really on interest rates to share with your audience here, Ken, because I think this is a real paradox that's going to blow some people away. What is it? So we know that mortgage interest rates have been up so much lately. And you know what happens with rising mortgage rates, right? When mortgage rates rise, home prices. You thought I was going to say fall, didn't you know? When mortgage rates rise, expect home prices to rise. And you might say what? That turns my whole world upside down. I mean, wouldn't one know that when mortgage rates rise.

 

Speaker 1 (00:35:38) - Well, that to. Creases affordability so one would afford less in prices would need to come down. And you know, the lens I like to look through a lot of times. Can we talk about applying economics to real estate? It's what I call history over hunches. I think it's really easy to have a hunch that when mortgage rates rise, well, obviously prices would have to come down due to impeded affordability. So maybe you're still wondering, well, what kind of upside down world would that happen? It's the world that you've been living in these past two years. What happened in 2021 and 2022? Home prices rose at a torrid pace, about 20% in 2021 and the following year last year, another 10% way beyond historic norms. And what happened with interest rates during that same time, they got doubled. I mean, they climbed a cliff. So that actually usually happens that when rates rise, prices rise. In fact, in the history over hunches, vane Winston Churchill is the one that said, the further you look into the past, the further you can see into the future.

 

Speaker 1 (00:36:44) - So let's open this up and look at the past, talk about why this happens, and then think about some lessons that you can learn from it. So in about the last 30 years, since 1994, mortgage rates have increased substantially nine times. That's defined as a mortgage rate increase of 1% or more. And during those nine times that mortgage rates rose, home prices rose seven of those nine times. This typically happens. And, you know, when I share this with real estate, people can a lot of them are blown away. They don't understand how they really don't even believe it. And I shared the data with you right before I came down here. You have the studio and maybe you can even put that chart up there to show people that I.

 

Speaker 3 (00:37:25) - Will do that.

 

Speaker 1 (00:37:25) - Jerry Yeah, but you know what? When I talk with doctors of economics, like the ones that I interview on my show, some of them aren't aware of it, but they all say, Oh yeah, I can believe it.

 

Speaker 1 (00:37:33) - I can understand how that would happen. All right. So what's going on here? Why does this happen? Why wouldn't mortgage rates rise? Would home prices rise? And, you know, there are for a couple of reasons. You know, can you and Donnell talk so eloquently about lag effects in the economy? Yeah, So that's one reason. But this can't completely be explained by lag effects because we have to think about what makes a person buy a home. Okay. We'll come back to that in a moment. But let's think about what happens when rates rise. Okay. Generally, the Fed is saying that the economy's hot, people are employed right now. There are some high profile tech layoffs for sure, but there are still more open job positions than there even are people to fill them. And this makes inflationary pressures heat up. So that's why they raise rates. When everyone has a job and you have an option if you get laid off to go to a second job and employers are competing for employees, what happens? You feel pretty secure in your job and what do you do when you feel secure in your job? You're likely to buy a home.

 

Speaker 1 (00:38:37) - So your situation, your income, your job security is an even more important factor than what mortgage rates are. So this is why, completely counter-intuitively and paradoxically, when mortgage rates rise, expect home prices to rise as well. And in fact, can. The only two times in the last nine that rates rose, that prices didn't rise as well. You know, they were they were 2007 and 2008 when there are really wacky aberrations going on in the market leading up to the global financial crisis. So, again, when rates rise, prices typically do two completely opposite of what most think.

 

Speaker 3 (00:39:12) - Yeah. And don't forget that part of the reason rates rise is because of the scarcity. So when you go from 1.4 million to 600,000, yeah, you have less just basic demand and supply. Less supply.

 

Speaker 1 (00:39:27) - That's right. And I think importantly, one needs to remember that there's less supply of both homes to buy and homes to rent. And even when one does want to buy and they continue to get shut out of the market with higher rates and higher prices than that obviously puts more people back in the renter pool, which is pretty good for guys like you.

 

Speaker 1 (00:39:45) - And I can know a lot of income priced right?

 

Speaker 3 (00:39:47) - That's why I did that video Renter Nation because it's not good by the way this you know housing is supposed to be balanced. So as somebody who owns a lot of rentals, we lose people. We lose people to single family home buying. That is the way it's supposed to be. Right? And then there are some people that when they're when they're done with the single family side, they want to come to rentals for convenience, for flexibility, for all kinds of things. So it's a natural stop. And so when one's out of whack or the other is out of whack, it's not necessarily good.

 

Speaker 1 (00:40:21) - No, it's not good. I mean, that impedes the upward mobility in really part of the American dream. Of course, you never want to lose a tenant from one of your apartments, but at least you can say, hey, congratulations, you moved up a rung or whatever. So this is the cost of any entry level. Housing is really high.

 

Speaker 1 (00:40:40) - In fact, when you parse the amount of available homes by the entry level type of, say, single family homes and duplexes, which tend to be the ones that make the best rentals, yeah, they're even more scarce.

 

Speaker 3 (00:40:51) - It's it's gotten worse. You know, I don't know that as a builder as you know, we built we can build entry level you know the.

 

Speaker 1 (00:41:00) - Most can't make it feasible.

 

Speaker 3 (00:41:01) - Cost the cost to build a house today is expensive.

 

Speaker 1 (00:41:05) - Yeah it really is. And you know, if you are looking to be a real estate investor in the 1 to 4 unit space, which is really an area where I specialize, if you can find a builder that builds entry level homes, I do know of a number of them in the Midwest and South, this could be a time for you to get a new build rental property more so than a renovated one. You know, that's really opposite of ten years ago. Ten years ago, we were still coming off the global financial crisis. Crazy.

 

Speaker 1 (00:41:32) - That was when the cost of property was even less than the replacement cost no one was going to build. Now you do have people building and, you know, can I know a number of these builders because mortgage rates are higher, that they're helping the investor, the individual investor down there. People like me, yeah, they're buying down the rates. So it's quite common for, oh, say on a $350,000 property for the builder to give you 2% of that 350 K purchase price. What is that, $7,000 at the closing table for you to buy down your mortgage rate? You also have turnkey newbuild companies that are giving 1 to 2 years of free property management. So new build typically costs more than renovated, which is why in the past a lot of investors like to buy a renovated property. But with the new builds and incentives like that and the fact that you're probably going to have lower insurance rates with new builds versus renovated, I think this really tilts toward you as the investors looking at property to your portfolio.

 

Speaker 1 (00:42:28) - It makes more sense now to look at new build than it has at any time in the recent past.

 

Speaker 3 (00:42:33) - Yeah, I know that like when we look at those big projects for for acquisition, you know, we're looking at what is it, what is the cost per unit for, let's say an acquisition in Phoenix versus building one? And in the last three years it was building all day long because the cost was 100,000 more per unit to buy crazy, crazy how existing product can get pushed up that high. And so all of a sudden that makes the building more affordable. Yeah, actually. And when you when you build the one next to the other, people are going to want the newer product all day long.

 

Speaker 1 (00:43:12) - Ken And maybe I can ask you a little something about being a builder. You know, I have learned from some builders that in a way some things are nice because they're not getting as much competition from resales on the market. We talked about why there aren't resales on the market. People want to hold on to their low mortgage rates so builders don't have the competition that way.

 

Speaker 1 (00:43:31) - But maybe you could let me know. Of course, it's going to vary by region and we've been talking very much nationally so far in the conversation here. But really, what's the lowest price point where it's still feasible as a builder to build where you have enough margin? Like what's the lowest price point on maybe a single family home? And then a larger. Yeah.

 

Speaker 3 (00:43:49) - So for me, it's mostly just apartments. So, you know, we'll go into a market. I'll give you a great example. We can buy in Austin, Texas, mid-nineties product, vaulted ceilings, nine foot ceilings, beautiful garages for $180,000 a door. Really nice. There's no way we can build that there for that price. Not even close. However, you take that exact project and you move it to Phoenix, it's 350 now. The rents are different, the expenses are different, the insurance is different, the property taxes are different. I understand the math. Is that the same? But, but on a per foot basis and a per unit basis, that's how different it is.

 

Speaker 3 (00:44:33) - So because of that, we're building in Arizona and buying in Texas. So now that can change. And also, you know that Austin could get really hot, those prices can go up and then we know that then it would change that dynamic. And so to your point, you always have to take a look at the difference between the deliverable. You know, do you buy The one thing I do like about buying is that it's immediate. You know, you could step into something immediate, make change immediate, whereas there's a bigger lag with the construction. So you do have some interest rate risk because you can't get a fixed rate loan on something that doesn't exist. It's land, it's air, and then it's built until it's in service, they call it. Then you can put fixed debt on it, but that's it. Up to that point, you're subject to a little bit of the whim of the fluctuations of the Fed and all the other things that that determine interest rates. So so you do have those things.

 

Speaker 3 (00:45:36) - We do love the new property. And so do our tenets. So when you build something new, people want to be there and they move out of that ten year or 15 year old product into something new. So there is that, plus you get a little bit more rent and, you know, all of those things. So there's positives and negatives for both.

 

Speaker 1 (00:45:55) - And so it's really, I'd say in the last ten years when you've seen the advent and proliferation of these build to rent companies, they're turnkey companies that build a finished product for you. That's the first thing that they do. And then the second thing they do is they place a tenant in it for you. And then thirdly, they hold it under management for you, the investor, if you so choose. Basically, it's those three things that define what a turnkey rental property is. So it's making more and more sense to do that with new build properties.

 

Speaker 3 (00:46:28) - Yeah, it certainly can and it's market by market. But you're right, you have to look at it each and every time.

 

Speaker 3 (00:46:34) - So before we wrap up, I'd like to talk about, you know, you always say invest in what's scarce, which I completely agree with. You know, And the other thing I like to say is invest the things that you can't print. So, you know, you could print dollars. You know, you can you can create a stock or ETF out of gold and all kinds of things, but you can't print gold, you can't print oil, you can't print trees. You can't print real estate. So let's talk about what's invest in what's scarce. So what do you mean by that?

 

Speaker 1 (00:47:05) - Oh, I love that. And we're so aligned on that. If I have any one investing theme, it comes down to one word scarcity. Yeah, I like to invest in what's scarce, not what's abundant and can be printed. You know, you don't even have to print anymore. It's just a few keystrokes and things like dollars and additional stock shares, abundant things, they can just be conjured into existence.

 

Speaker 1 (00:47:27) - So I avoid what's abundant like dollars in stocks and I focus on investing in what's scarce and is difficult to produce more of and take, yeah, real world resources to produce which is for me, it's real estate, gold and bitcoin that rounds out my scarcity theme. Why Real estate? It's a wealth builder really. Gold and bitcoin are not proven wealth builders. I think gold and bitcoin are maybe good places to move some capital once you've built it. Gold and bitcoin can be good stores of value gold really the classic store of value and bitcoin the real risk. But you know real world resources to produce. They're all scarce. Like we talked about the low supply of real estate. It has utility meaning usefulness. And yeah, when you buy a piece of real estate, a lot of people don't think about it this way, but break down all the commodities that you're buying when