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591: Mortgage Loan Types Every Real Estate Investor Must Know

Complete episode transcript:

Keith Weinhold 0:01

welcome to GRE. I'm your host. Keith Weinhold, the naming of a new Federal Reserve Chair. Then are homebuilders in trouble today? There are a dwindling number of them, and their profits are down. I'll talk to a homebuilder. Listen to what amenities tenants want today, and it's interesting. We'll learn how low of a mortgage rate builders will give you. Now there's an opportunity here today on get rich education.

Corey Coates 0:30

Since 2014 the powerful get rich education podcast has created more passive income for people than nearly any other show in the world. This show teaches you how to earn strong returns from passive real estate investing in the best markets without losing your time being a flipper or landlord. Show Host Keith Weinhold writes for both Forbes and Rich Dad advisors, and delivers a new show every week since 2014 there's been millions of listener downloads of 188 world nations. He has a list show guests include top selling personal finance author Robert Kiyosaki. Get rich education can be heard on every podcast platform, plus it has its own dedicated Apple and Android listener phone apps build wealth on the go with the get rich education podcast. Sign up now for the get rich education podcast or visit get rich education.com

Keith Weinhold 1:14

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Speaker 1 2:17

You're listening to the show that has created more financial freedom than nearly any show in the world. This is get rich education.

Keith Weinhold 2:33

Welcome to GRE from countersport Pennsylvania to Davenport Iowa and across 488 nations worldwide. I'm Keith Weinhold, and you're listening to get rich education now more than ever, where you learn about personal finance and real estate investing matters. There's more AI generated content out there. This show is all flesh and blood me. There's also more clickbait content out there that says something like the housing market is about to have a price crash. No, it's not. They're just there to get short term attention. So your information source really matters today. New incoming Fed chair, Kevin Warsh, was recently named. He will replace the outgoing Jerome Powell on May 15. I want to tell you more about that in a moment. But first, just imagine if this scenario were to occur, say that we get a Fed chair that has to deal with really high inflation. And so what this Fed chair does is that he successfully brings inflation down, and he does that without triggering a recession that's called a soft landing. Well, you know what? That's exactly what Jerome Powell did the past three years. Yeah, that's what he's accomplished, and he doesn't get credit for it. He only gets a lot of criticism. Now this doesn't mean that I love Powell. I don't even know that the Fed should exist at all, but Powell got a lot of criticism for calling 2022, wave of inflation transitory, and being too late to respond to it. So he gets some credit here as his term of more than eight years winds down. Let's listen in to some of Jay Powell's recent comments about succession,

Speaker 2 4:23

you've obviously experienced a lot during your time as Fed chair, served under multiple presidents. I'm wondering what advice you have for whoever your successor might be.

Speaker 3 4:34

Honestly, I'd say a couple of things. One is, you know, stay out of elected politics. Don't get pulled into elected politics don't do it. And that's another thing. Another is that you know, our window into democratic accountability is Congress, and it's not a passive burden for us to go. To Congress and talk to people. It's an affirmative, regular obligation. If you want democratic legitimacy, you earn it by your interactions with the our elected overseers. And so it's something you need to work hard at, and I have worked hard at it so and the last thing is, you know, it's easy to it's easy to criticize government institutions so many ways. I will tell whoever it is you're about to meet the most qualified group of people you not only have ever worked with, you will ever work with and when you meet fed staff. And not everybody's perfect, but, but there isn't a better cadre of professionals more dedicated to the public well being than work at the Fed.

Keith Weinhold 5:43

Yeah. So to Powell's point, the next Fed chair, worsh, does champion fed independence, much like Powell has. That is a good thing that keeps America from turning into a banana republic that maintains a strong dollar. Warsh was actually a Fed Governor back during the 2008 global financial crisis, so he's got that experience when he comes in as Fed Chair in three months, he's widely expected to lower interest rates more than Powell did, much like the president wants. Kevin Warsh looks a lot like Michael Scott from the office. He has got to be less bumbling than him, though, overall, the effect on real estate and mortgage rates by shifting from PAL to worsh, I mean, that should be pretty mild. Maybe you'll see rates go a little lower than if pal had stayed and speaking of rates, wait till you see how low the mortgage rate is that our homebuilder guest is offering today. What's really happening with homebuilders now? How much trouble are they in? Homebuilders have largely been maligned. Overall. There are fewer homebuilders today in America than there were 20 years ago, and there are more remodelers than there were 20 years ago, fewer home builders, more remodelers, and that's for a few different reasons. Over the past couple decades, we just have substantially higher labor and material costs, stricter building and energy codes, higher interest rates, and that disproportionately hurts long duration construction projects. We've got zoning constraints and land constraints that make ground up development slow and uncertain and risky. So while the number of Home Builders in America is down, the number of remodelers are up, because America's housing stock is getting older. Its median age is over 40 years, and that creates constant demand for upgrades. Capital prefers faster, lower risk cycles. That's what remodels offer, and homeowners with locked in low mortgage rates choose to stay in place. And what does that make them do? That makes them renovate and remodel, not move. So this is why, compared to 20 years ago, you have fewer home builders and more remodelers. Today, that's per the NAHB and the Census Bureau and all these forces, they've resulted in a lower profit margin for homebuilders. Yes, homebuilder margin compression for a lot of the bigger builders, including DR Horton, just as you might guess in this cycle, their profits were greatest in 2022 and they have fallen since then. Higher mortgage rates came in, and builders had to lose profits by offering more incentives to entice buyers. You're going to learn more about that today and how it really spells quite an opportunity for you and I. When the final change in national home prices was tallied for the end of last year, they had risen in 16,500 zip codes. All right, that's 63% of America's zip codes, and prices were lower from a year earlier in the other 37% home price gains were concentrated in the Northeast and Midwest, and the story there continues to be too many buyers and not enough homes. In fact, over 85% of zip codes saw price growth in Illinois, Connecticut, Wisconsin and Indiana, slow, steady, stubborn, kind of like winter refusing to leave. Losses were predominant in the Sun Belt. Prices caught their breath there. There was price attrition in Florida, with 96% of zip codes, so nearly all of Florida, then California, 78% of zip codes had a price loss. Texas, 75% of them and Arizona, 73% the biggest pocket of opportunity appears to be in Florida. Florida property is on sale. And because real estate is local. A lot of times we talk here nationally, but to get to that local level, sometimes you have to dig in to a local market to really find out what's going on. We're going to do that today. Now, central Miami, Orlando and Tampa, they're not generally the spot for obtaining cash flow from long term rentals. I've identified an opportunity. We'll get into that with this Florida homebuilder shortly. It's kind of funny. You'll run into people that say they want opportunity, but what they really want is certainty. How it plays out, though, is that once the certainty arrives, the opportunity is gone, and that's how to think about Florida and maybe Texas and some of these other markets today that have had price attrition.

Keith Weinhold 10:48

Now, three weeks ago, here on the show, I discussed the 721 exchange for the first time. So I won't get into all those details again when it comes time for you to sell your investment property, the 721 can be the best way for you to cash out. Perhaps you've been investing in real estate for a while and you have turned get rich education into got rich education. How the 721 exchange works is they basically say you have a case where you're a rental property owner and you realize that you don't want the hassles of landlording anymore. Oftentimes, this can mean you're older and real estate investing already took you where you wanted it to take you in life's journey, but you still like the financial benefit that ownership gives you. What you can do is exchange your properties into a partnership and receive shares in that partnership. Now that's different than a 1031, exchange. That's where you trade up some of your property that you directly own for what's usually more and larger property that you directly own. Well, instead, here's the big deal with exchanging your properties into a 721, partnership. The rules stipulate that this is not a taxable event, and therefore you don't have to pay any capital gains tax or depreciation recapture. Now that you're an owner in the partnership, you still get some of the benefits of owning the property, like appreciation and cash flow and such, yet no management or landlording at all like you would have with a 1031 and with a 721 you get all these benefits across a greater number of properties and markets diversification because you're a fractional owner in the other properties that are in the partnership, not only your own, and when you eventually pass away, your shares are stepped up in basis and can be distributed equally to heirs and C It's surely easier for you to divide shares among, say, your three children, than it is to divide your 18 rental houses among three children Who are going to have different goals and varying degrees of financial savvy. So the 721, exchange is a great estate planning tool too. You will have this partnership that makes an offer to buy your property. You're exchanging them for partnership shares. There's a firm that does this called flock homes, and they have a certain Buy Box to be clear with the 721, exchange, you can basically trade your rentals for shares in a diversified, professionally managed Real Estate Fund. This means that you keep your hard earned equity defer capital gains and other taxes, and you still get access to steady income and long term appreciation without the hassle of landlord duties, and you can visit flockhomes.com/gre, and get a free valuation. Get an offer for your property, see if it fits their buy box and see how much they'll pay you. There's often no need to pay to fix up or stage the property for sale or pay agent commissions for a certain investor type. This really can be a rather life changing experience for you to liquidate some or all of your property have zero tax obligation and still enjoy income and appreciation. So again, what you can do is stop by flock homes.com/gre, that's F, l, O, C, K, homes.com/g, R, E, let's discuss the home building climate today.

Keith Weinhold 14:38

I'd like to bring in a premium Florida homebuilder guest to the show, Jim, because there has been more homebuilding in Florida such that some areas of the state have excess supply. And when you add that onto the fact that the hot pandemic migration to Florida has slowed such that home prices have made a rare dip in the state, that is why it. A timely topic. Jim, you're on GRE Welcome to the show. Keith, great to be here. Thanks for having me. Yeah, and we did the IRL thing in Colorado there a few weeks ago. That was great hanging out in person. You provide entry level new build homes, mostly in Central Florida. And these are properties that are conducive to real estate pays five ways. These are properties that investors chiefly buy as rentals. So just bigger picture, tell us about that overall experience over, say, the last five years, as the pandemic wound down,

Jim Sheils 15:35

yeah, as the pandemic wound down, obviously Florida had a lot of attention. Some of it, rightly so, some of it, I think a little more inflated and commercial attention getting thrown at it. And you know, the type of deals that you and I have always stayed away from were very popular in Florida. You know, we're talking really nice houses. Keith, beautiful, nice HOAs people got in in 2021 let's say, with those very low interest rates on a six or $700,000 home, but now they're realizing that it's not going up $100,000 a year as they thought. And when they try to sell it, well, people trying to buy in $700,000 home, they're not getting that low interest rate. And if these people try to hold it and rent it, well, it doesn't cash flow, so it breaks one of those rules. It's not putting money in people's pockets, taking it out. And so we're seeing there was a large distribution of those types of houses around Florida. And then there were some builders like us that really focused on what was the most needed, and that was workforce housing. Now workforce housing, though, Keith, as you know, a lot of the builders don't want to build it. Why? Let's be straight. It's because the margins are lower right. But as you know, with me and my partner Chris, it was always let's make less margin and do more volume. That was always our model, and that was the area of the market where we felt we could build it right, we could get it financed right, and we could manage it right to hit the five things. And so we're seeing today, post pandemic, there are still key markets where the population growth is still the highest, coming into Florida, the prices are still the lowest, and there is a shortage of this type of workforce housing.

Keith Weinhold 17:11

Yes, you've identified a geography within Florida that have some of these characteristics like you're talking about. Tell us more about that region.

Jim Sheils 17:20

Yeah, we call it the Ocala region, so Central Florida, just west of Orlando. Right now, for example, u haul does their U haul top markets rankings every year? So where are the most U haul trucks going to now, you don't want to be on their side where they're coming from, Keith, because that's obviously the opposite. But for the second year in a row, the greater Ocala area has been the number 1u haul destination place in the country. So there's still a ton of population growth going there. Central Florida, I'm not going to say it sat out the growth during the pandemic that a lot of areas of Florida did, but it was starting at such a low basis with such a small amount of attention that today, even when people say, oh gosh, like I just said, house is 600 700 800,000 we're building new construction single family homes for under 300,000 the 270s a lot of the time. And we're building duplexes sometimes for under 400,000 and a lot of our you know, investors coming from the west coast. Say, are these fully built? Are they? But again, Central Florida has had a great affordability. Remain intact. It has a large population going in. There is a ton of job resource just blowing up in the area. And as you know, these are the things we look for. So we bought a lot of lots there. I'm gonna give credit to my partner, Chris. He saw calla more than I did, and we bought a lot of lots there in 2020 so before all the rises. So we got into the land basis, right? So that means we can build them at a great price. Our land basis is low, and that obviously passes along to our clients. And again, Central Florida is a perfect match for our goal. Because, you know, our goal is workforce housing, that cash flows on day one. But also nothing wrong with fixer uppers. I own a lot. I used to do a lot, but the new construction seems to have a little bit more of a less involvement, which it seems like a lot of our clients want.

Keith Weinhold 19:15

That was really prescient, as it turned out, for your business partner, Chris there to gobble up a lot of that land in 2020 before prices went soaring. And this is one reason why you can do things like offer a duplex for less than 400k That's a new build, which has some people saying like, does that thing include a roof even? But it surely does. These are very good quality livable properties. And the reason I have you here, Jim is because you are rare. There are fewer builders today than there were in decades past, and also those that build to your point earlier. They only want to build higher end properties, not the more affordable ones that you offer. We'll get more details on your price points and what properties. Products you offer later. But yeah, we have more remodelers today and fewer builders. And though it's a few years old, I found it interesting that census statistics show us that between 2007 and 2022 there are 73% more remodelers and 21% fewer builders today.

Jim Sheils 20:22

Interesting. You know, Keith, I didn't know that, and that makes me scratch my head on like when you and I were in Colorado, we were talking about future needs, even with growth that occurred during the pandemic going all the way back to oh eight when a real shortage started to start, we are still at an estimated three to 5 million homes short in the US. It really perplexes me that the amount of builders like us will be going down and not actually entering the market.

Keith Weinhold 20:47

Now, among those that are building, though, much of that is concentrated in the South, as I think we know, there's a recent resi club compilation show that 59% of current single family home building is in the south, and 41% is everywhere else. And how do you define the South? That's basically Maryland down to Florida, all the way out to Texas and Oklahoma. So you are pretty rare in some ways. However, where you're building regionally, that's not a rarity there, but yeah, having more remodelers today and fewer home builders, that's probably the result of a lot of things. You know, for one thing, just land and construction costs becoming that much more expensive over the past five years.

Jim Sheils 21:05

Yeah, we've been lucky, too, as you know, Keith, you've been with us for a decade now. But yeah, and we transitioned a piece of our company where Sumitomo forestry, large Japanese group stepped in and acquired a piece of our property. That was a very exciting thing for all of us together, because we had done well, and, you know, started small and built up to a decent sized builder for Northeast Florida and then the rest of Florida. But now, with Sumitomo coming in again, they build 17,000 homes worldwide every year, between all of their builders. Now being a part of them, we get to use their national material accounts, so they get pricing just as good, if not better, than national home builders, and they let us do our thing, stick to our build to rent, working with investor clients. We're not retail buyer guys, really. We like working with our investors, but just getting those great discounts on materials, again, we're always looking to pass on savings to our clients. Of course, we got to make margins as well, but if we're getting in with deals like that, getting into the land right, and knowing the pinpointed areas to get into, we can get the best deal for everyone. And that's been a major part having such a big, successful partner like Sumitomo keep us healthy, viable and able to do things we could have not even dreamed of five years ago.

Keith Weinhold 22:47

Yes, that gives you more capital and more options. Another unusual aberration in the market that really centers on a lot of what you do is that this fact that and this was mentioned on the show last year for the first time in my life, existing homes cost more than new build homes. Existing homes at about 420k nationally, and new build homes about 392k part of the divergence there is probably builder price cuts. So tell us more about that.

Jim Sheils 23:14

I think the issue Heath is builders built for largest spreads, and people bought very emotionally. I think you're to give you a compliment a very unemotional real estate buyer. You're not looking at, oh, this is a very nice, you know, extra his and hers porcelain sink. And we're looking at fundamental numbers a good, solid property. And I think what's caused a lot of that is people did the opposite. Builders were looking for the largest margin they could get, which was on those types of properties. And then buyers were looking very emotionally, and they were told, Hey, this is going to go up 50 to $100,000 a year. So just sit there and hold on, sure you'll lose $1,500 a month, but don't worry about it. You'll make up for that every year. And obviously we're not seeing that's true. They could have really used your class about the five ways to get paid in real estate. And I think that that's what's doing it. And this is what builders do. I mean, everyone's in a business, and a lot of builders just focus on the largest margin. Now that's eating them up now, because those types of properties are not in demand. To build them on spec would be very dangerous, but you can see that that worked for a short term. We're very glad we went to the low margin workforce housing model, because I see that falling out of favor almost never even in Oh 809, Keith, when I was in the remodel game, a lot of the properties that were new construction coming out that time they were affordable, still did very well.

Keith Weinhold 24:42

We're talking with a premium Florida homebuilder today, because they offer affordable properties that make sense for investors. But what about the demand? Where is that going to come from? Where is that going to be? And that's what's happening with the renter segment. We'll talk more about that when we. Come back. You're listening to get rich Education. I'm your host. Keith Weinhold,

Keith Weinhold 25:03

flock homes helps you retire from real estate and landlording, whether it's one problem, property or your whole portfolio through a 721, exchange, deferring your capital gains tax and depreciation recapture, it's a strategy long used by the ultra wealthy. Now Mom and Pop landlords can 721, the residential real estate request your initial valuation, see if your properties qualify@flockhomes.com slash GRE, that's F, l, O, C, K, homes.com/gre.

Keith Weinhold 25:39

You know, most people think they're playing it safe with their liquid money, but they're actually losing savings accounts and bonds don't keep up when true inflation eats six or 7% of your wealth. Every single year, I invest my liquidity with FFI freedom family investments in their flagship program. Why fixed 10 to 12% returns have been predictable and paid quarterly. There's real world security backed by needs based real estate like affordable housing, Senior Living and health care. Ask about the freedom flagship program when you speak to a freedom coach there, and that's just one part of their family of products, they've got workshops, webinars and seminars designed to educate you before you invest. Start with as little as 25k and finally, get your money working as hard as you do. Get started at Freedom, family investments.com/gre, or send a text now it's 1-937-795-8989, yep, text their freedom coach directly. Again, 1-937-795-8989,

Keith Weinhold 26:51

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Ken McElroy 27:26

this is Rich Dad advisor, Ken McElroy. Listen to get rich education with Keith whitehold, and don't twitch your Daydream.

Keith Weinhold 27:40

Welcome back to get rich Education. I'm your host. Keith Weinhold, we're talking with Jim a premium Florida homebuilder here at such an interesting time in the cycle, since supply is up in some parts of Florida, Jim and his team has strategically chosen a place that is still fueling a lot of net in migration in Central Florida, and that's where the rental demand needs to come from as well. Now nationally, we've seen the homeownership rate fall over about the past year, from near 66% to near 65% that does not sound like much, but a 1% shift means there are 1.3 million new renters in just the past year. So with that in mind, and the fact that this low affordability for home buying means that people need to rent or stay renters longer, provides some of the Sustainable demand. So tell us more about the rental demand in Central Florida.

Jim Sheils 28:39

Yeah, you know, when we first went out there about a decade ago, Keith, I think it was 82 or 83% of all properties out there were owner occupied, which means it was a very lopsided amount of existing rental property available. And this is before the curve of population growth really took off. But when Chris and I went out there and we were assessing that small percentage of rental property that was out there. Gosh, it was old and kind of beat up. There was not a lot like the new construction that was available. So when we brought in new construction, we saw just the competition. Was hard to compete with us. You know, when it was an older, not so nice taking care of we came in and we saw a jump from, you know, doing older houses ourselves, you know, a person would stay about 13 months. But for the new construction in Central Florida, we've seen a jump to about three years. So that's really positive. People get into a new construction property they don't want to leave, whether that's half of a duplex or a single family. The duplexes are interesting because we're able to build those on infill lots and existing single family home neighborhoods, so a person who doesn't want to live in an apartment can live there, have their own yard, and they couldn't afford the whole single family, but to have half of a single family basically what a duplex is. It makes a big difference, and the people are in great demand of rental in Central Florida there because of exactly why. I said, Keith, the job. Course, continues to grow in Central Florida, extremely strong. The business incentives to come into the area by the local municipality is very, very good. So here's something interesting, Keith, the average salary in Ocala is about 72,000 and the average home price is about 298,000 that is a very healthy affordability one. Yeah, very, very good. And so that job source continues to pay very well. And we've talked about just the logistics centers and the Equestrian Center. That's the largest in the world. Now the villages are just 25 miles south. So Ocala becomes a bedroom community, and that is the second largest retirement community and growing in the US. So there's a lot of job source that allows people to live there at a good affordability. And so that combination of affordability with this extending job source has been really, really good for the Ocala region.

Keith Weinhold 30:59

It's been said that the only place you get money is from other people, and we're talking about your renters in this case. So oftentimes these renters, they had their sense of privacy there, like, for example, do the duplexes even have fenced backyards for each individual side,

Jim Sheils 31:17

depending on where they are? We will. Other times it hasn't been a requirement. We've done lots of surveys to see is it worth the price point to put in full fencing in certain areas. It can be in a lot of areas. Keith, they're just so excited with the price point not having to move into an apartment building that it hasn't even been warranted or necessary.

Keith Weinhold 31:38

Yeah. So we're talking about livability characteristics here, because oftentimes new build rental property results in a higher tenant stay that longer duration, because they're the first person that have ever lived there, and it's also difficult for them to go out and improve their living situation unless they become a home buyer, and that's difficult to do today. Tell us more about the incentives and the property types and so on, because there really are some pretty exciting ones.

Jim Sheils 32:09

One of the best things about Central Florida, Keith, combined with new construction, is insurance costs. Now you and I have laughed about the blanketed statement where you said, oh my goodness, you cannot get insurance in Florida. You can't get property insurance in Florida, or it's doubled, tripled, gone up 7x that is a true statement on certain properties. If you're buying older properties from the 1950s that are within a half mile of the beach on low lying ground, but new construction properties far away from the beach, that is a totally different things. So again, being in Central Florida, where we are, a lot of people think, oh, to insure a single family home there, that's going to be several $100 a month, when actually, you know, and you've seen a lot of our performer quotes, our insurance companies are getting a single family home done for about $65 a month on average, full coverage. And that's the advantage of new construction. Insurance companies are all about risk. They analyze risk. When you're on a new construction property built on higher ground away from the beach, they like that, and they do that a duplex. You're looking at about $100 a month. So incentive wise, we've really searched to team up with great insurance companies that get the best rates full coverage. And again, we surprise people when they say, Oh man, I thought there would be a whole nother zero at that monthly cost. And these are actual quotes, as you know, with working with a lot of GRE people. So that's one great thing, another great thing, Keith, that happened when we joined forces with Sumitomo. And again, Sumitomo 320, years old, one of the biggest powerhouses out of Asia, Warren Buffett, is very heavily invested in another one of the conglomerates, not the housing one we do, but he's very involved in one of their other companies. And when they came aboard, you know, we have no bank debt for a builder, which is rare. And since we have such a healthy balance sheet, we're actually able to work deals with mortgage companies where we'll do what's called builder forward commitments, Keith, and that means we will pre buy mortgages for our clients, for the homes we're building, and we will pass that savings along. So right now, you know, if an investment property in a duplex might be an average of 7% for anyone who walks in off the street to a bank. Right now, our most popular rate program for our investors, for single family or duplexes, is 3.75 Gosh. So as you know, for your five ways, if we want to get cash flow, there's a big difference. Yeah, we're getting affordable housing. But if the rate is over 7% compared to 375 that could eat up the cash flow with us being able to have this power to buy large tranches of money and pass it along and lock our people in again, an average right now at 3.75 is our most popular program, and that's long term money, then we're able to get that cash flow right off the bat. And you and I know how important that is

Keith Weinhold 34:50

for this super attractive 3.75% long term mortgage rate on single family homes and duplexes. How? Much does the buyer have to come out of pocket at the closing table to buy that down themselves? And how much do you the builder participate in that buy down?

Jim Sheils 35:07

You know, it depends Keith at different times, because there is a little bit of a fluctuation. Sometimes it can be as low as zero points or just one origination point to bring it in. It does vary. And also, if people say, hey, I really don't want to bring in any points. Well, that's fine. You know, if you don't want to walk in zero to 2% points for that, you can also just raise your rate up to four and a quarter and probably walk in nothing. So there's different things that we can do, but the goal of it is to have us have the brunt of it. And what I can tell you is, if the average person walked into a bank, and a bank wouldn't do this anyway. It's only for, again, builders with a certain size, but if you went into a bank right now and said, I'd like to buy my rate down to 3.75 the average Keith that this would cost a person off the street going into a bank would be 12 to 15% banks wouldn't even do it for an individual. But that's about the estimates when you look at it. So again, volume has privileged. The fact we're able to buy it down. It does cost us a good amount of money, but we're all able to save since we're kind of working together to buy these larger tranches. And again, the need of any investment for buying down the rate from the clients is very minimal.

Keith Weinhold 36:18

Tell us more about the property types, new build single family homes, new build duplexes.

Jim Sheils 36:23

You know, single family and duplexes are our main focus in 2026 for Central Florida, we've done the research. They're very high in demand. They rent quickly, and they rent long term to produce cash flow. Our average single family home under 300,000 we're aiming to after expense, make about $300 cash flow. Our duplexes should be about twice that amount, about just under $600 a month, or just over in cash flow. And then again, the prices are ranging from about 395, to 420, for a duplex. Again, these are in workforce areas where we're doing great, scattered lots. Scattered lot means there's already existing homes around. We like to go to an area where there's good a fundamental balance of homeowners and renters. So there's retail buyers that have bought their first home, and we will place our rentals in between them, whether it's a single family or a duplex.

Keith Weinhold 37:13

We sure don't need to do a complete audio pro forma here, but those cash flow amounts something near $300 for a single family home, and about double that for a duplex. Is that using, you know, a bought down rate to about 4% and some of these other inputs you're talking about, like low insurance costs and a certain property tax rate, can you tell us about that?

Jim Sheils 37:35

Yeah, property tax rate is property tax rate. We can get pretty dang close on property taxes, you know, based on millage and get that down. But when we do our performers, we absolutely go off of, you know, our average rate to be the 375, to four and a quarter. And then when GRE clients look at our performer, and they look at the insurance cost, that's an actual quote from one of our insurance companies that has insured hundreds and hundreds of these properties. Not a guess, yeah, so they know what they're doing. So yeah, those would be the assumptions made in there, and that's what we're basically getting on a week in, week out basis.

Keith Weinhold 38:09

That is really attractive as we're talking about new build. I imagine there is some sort of builder warranty as well.

Jim Sheils 38:16

There's a state mandated 210 warranty. 210 warranty is something we could talk probably a whole episode on Keith. But for what's good for people to know, basically what that means, you get two years coverage on the small stuff and 10 years coverage on the big structural stuff. And so that's why I like new construction. You know what? I used to personally just buy my own fixer up Return key properties from other people. I could get a one year warranty, and that's the best that really can be done. Now with new construction, we've gone from, you know, with our fixer upper homes, able to do a one year warranty, which is good at something. But now with new construction, we can do a 210 warranty, big difference, and also really helps the safety score of issues if they came up.

Keith Weinhold 38:59

We were talking about new build property, and we tend to project relatively low maintenance and repair costs for an obvious reason, maybe your long term vacancy rate could very well be lower as well, due to my earlier point about a tenant wanting to stay there for a long time, because it's hard for them to improve their living situation unless they went out and bought their own place. And you have the low insurance rates, and you have the low mortgage rates, all contributing to positive cash flow on a new build property. And we think about that tenant and what gets the tenant excited? We start to think about some of those amenities. So tell us about what amenities are offered, including inside, in the kitchen and so on.

Jim Sheils 39:38

Jim, yeah, great question, Keith. We've really gotten a great recipe for success for that. You know, we've been doing this a little over a decade now, and so you're always tweaking your build model. What do people like? What do they not like? What's good for durability? Let's look at maintenance and repairs. Let's look at turn costs. So our goal is always the dual focus. That's what looks good. And what lasts really well, yeah, because you want durability. When you have tenants, you want it to look good, so you sell it down the road, 510, years to a first time homebuyer, it looks great. You can sell it. But durability wise, you don't want a lot of extra expenses or maintenance and repairs. So we go durability. So what we found a couple of things. I always joke about this. I do not like the word carpet, Keith, that is a terrible swear word in real estate investing, I can tell you right now, if I could go back and this is not, you know, owning hundreds of rentals, if I could not have done carpet and just reversed it to like vinyl plank flooring, like we do now, or even tile, which was more, I probably would have been able to buy three or four of our duplexes cash with the amount of money, and that is not an exaggeration. So we do not do carpet. First of all, it seems like trends are changing. It's not in favor right now. So we do vinyl plank flooring, which looks really nice, almost like wood floors, super durable, though, for a young family that's going to be tenant occupied in your property and running around on it. That's great. Kitchen wise, again, we don't sell retail really. We like to work with investors, but down the road, our investor might want to sell to a retail buyer. So we know, you know, from our old fix and flip days of the FHA buyers, the kitchen's got a pop. So we always do, you know, we don't do the white appliances, which you know would save you quite a bit of money, and save us quite a bit of money. We do stainless steel appliances. We do all new cabinetry, you know, kind of the latest, nicer cabinetry, a little bit of an upgrade. And then, you know, butcher block countertops, those are going to wear in about a year or two. Keith, it feels really good to spend that smaller amount, you know. But we, we like to do the more durable, nice looking countertops, you know, that are, you know, just so much more esthetically pleasing and actually durable as well. Same thing in the bathrooms. A lot of new builders will do shower kit, which not a problem if you're saving money on a rehab, you know, but we would rather do tile, bring in the extra subcontractors to give tile, and then in the master we do the dual sinks, which this might sound like little stuff, Keith, but these are the micro movements that help get a tenant in quicker, stay longer and more rent. So we're always trying to do these extra things in the granite countertops, both in the kitchens and in the bathrooms. Those cost more upfront, but we see for long term of tenant we see, for the amount of rent we get, and for resale ability, because a lot of people don't think about that. You know what? In seven years you want to sell one of these properties? Well, it's a seven year old roof, it's seven year old plumbing, you're still in a great spot for an FHA buyer. And that esthetically pleasing flooring, bathrooms, kitchens. That allows an easier sale for them, because we want to look all the way around, not just a rental. I like to hold long term, but if you want to sell in five to 10 years, that's a very valid strategy.

Keith Weinhold 42:48

I like carpet in my own home, but not rentals. But what you're sharing with us, Jim, this is absolute gold that's been brought to you through experience. This over improvement versus under improvement line in rentals, and it really has a lot of balance between durability and price. These are the sort of things that really matter, but you are selling predominantly to individual investors, a lot of mom and pop investors. Why don't you make more sales to the retail, owner occupied market, or to institutional investors, even though that might be cracked down upon now. But why don't you sell to those parties?

Jim Sheils 43:26

Yeah, you know Keith, I did a lot of fix and flip to FHA buyers, and I'm an investor. I really like working with investors. So when this all really went back to is 2009 I had a lot of investors. I was in Northeast Florida. The deal flow was incredible. And I just had a lot of investors, you know, through my different networks and Masterminds, like, where you and I have met, and said, Hey, you're getting great deals in Northeast Florida. Could you help put some together for me? And so I had done quite a few fix and flips to retail buyers, and it just kind of hot on me, you know, way back then, like, Wow. I like working with investors. I like building portfolios. I also like the fact that when I'm normally building a portfolio for an investor, well, they hang out with other investors, and they're not looking to buy one property over the next five years. They're looking to buy five to eight properties over the next five years. great point. And so we just saw it as you gotta like who you work with, right? And nothing against first time homebuyers. But when I was rehabbing houses and selling them, golly, that was a lot of work. And then could be persnickety. Yeah, very persnickety. And so when Chris and I teamed up about 10 years ago, we had both gone through the same kind of aha, like going, Yeah, it seems great, but you could sell for more to a retail buyer. But again, like I go back to even the type of property we build, we'd rather do a volume with investors. Be a builder, buy investors for investors, and work that way. And I think it suits me. I think I would have probably hung up my shoes a long time ago if I was. Working with the amount of properties we've done with retail buyers compared to investors, honestly, and so I think it was just kind of, it was a preference, really, that made sense

Keith Weinhold 45:09

to your point. Investors buy multiple properties, and that way there are fewer parties to deal with. And investors tend to be less emotional than those more persnickety, owner occupied buyers. Well, Jim, you make it easy for investors. Besides all these incentives, you also offer an in house management solution for these investors, often that tend to be out of state. Well, Jim, before I ask you, if you have any closing thoughts, would you the listener like to ask Jim any question directly? Well, you can, because I have a great event to tell you about next Thursday, the 19th, at 8pm eastern Jim here and GRE investment coach, Naresh will co host a live webinar for Central Florida new build income property. In fact, Jim, I think you know Naresh longer than I have, as it turns out, but this event is free, and you the listener are invited. We've had between 250 and 550 registrants for our past webinars. Not all of them attend live. So the benefit of you attending live is that you can have any of your questions answered by either Naresh or Jim in real time, and besides learning about the Central Florida market and more about home building, you are going to see available new build income property, real addresses with some of these rather grand incentives that we've talked about here, you might end up with a long term rate of about 4% again, it is Thursday, the 19th at 8pm Eastern. Sign up is open now at grewebinars.com that's grewebinars.com Any final thoughts here, Jim, for this great event coming up next week?

Jim Sheils 46:52

I think we're going to dig a little deeper. Obviously, this is a conversation that was great, but moves pretty quickly when we talk next week, we're going to be able to dig into more of the fundamentals, some of the stats, and just get underneath the hood of why Central Florida is making so much sense, and just some of the rising stars that we're seeing there that we're very excited to be a part of.

Keith Weinhold 47:13

You've helped our listeners for close to 10 years now. It's been an informative chat as always. Thanks so much for coming back onto the show.

Jim Sheils 47:21

Thanks for having me, Keith.

Keith Weinhold 47:27

Yeah, like our guest touched on Ocala, Florida now has national recognition as the fastest growing city in America, and that's for the second year in a row. According to a new U haul report, Florida is, of course, a rather landlord friendly state. In fact, Florida is the first state to enact a law that allows law enforcement to immediately remove squatters, distinguishing them from legal tenants. Now here's what's interesting and why I've identified this opportunity if Florida prices dipped because people were leaving now, that could be a red flag, because population loss is like gravity. Once it starts falling, it is hard to escape. But that's not what's happening. Instead, what we're seeing is a temporary overbuild hangover. Builders got ambitious. We're in a brief period where supply outran demand and prices softened. That's not decay. That's a sale rack. Any vacant homes are not stranded. They're being absorbed by Florida's still growing population, which has now increased every single decade since its first census count, back in the year 1830 back in 1830 there were about 35,000 residents in the whole state. Isn't that amazing today? North of 24 million, that is 700x population growth in almost 200 years, and it's still growing. That kind of trend doesn't reverse because a few builders over ordered inventory here at GRE this made us target and find in opportunity. This isn't an accident. Central Florida is this year's most compelling. Housing market in that region, Central Florida, is growing faster than the rest of the state at large, and it really sits in the sweet spot of this temporary imbalance. One long established builder overbuilt and now they're motivated. They know what investors want. So, for example, they don't build swimming pools with their homes. They also offer property tours, and over 90% of their tour attendees buy property. They're willing to offer terrific incentives at our upcoming GRE live webinar, like we touched on new build single family rentals, 270k and up duplexes, three. 95 to 420, long term mortgage rates as low as 3.75% you get low insurance rates since they're inland and new build positive cash flow and a builder warranty at the event. You're going to learn all about the growth drivers in Central Florida, why so many renters are moving there and see available properties. This benefits anyone looking for a clear, practical view of current real estate conditions. Joining live does matter, since you can have those questions answered in real time, not after the opportunity has moved on, you are invited for next Thursday, the 19th, at 8p m Eastern. This one is worth circling, not because it's flashy, because it's timed right. Sign up is open now @grewebinars.com that's gre webinars.com. Until next week. I'm your host. Keith Weinhold, don't quit your Daydream.

Speaker 5 51:00

Nothing on this show should be considered specific, personal or professional advice. Please consult an appropriate tax, legal, real estate, financial or business professional for individualized advice. Opinions of guests are their own. Information is not guaranteed. All investment strategies have the potential for profit or loss. The host is operating on behalf of get rich Education LLC, exclusively.

Keith Weinhold 51:29

The preceding program was brought to you by your home for wealth, building, get richeducation.com

Direct download: GREepisode592_.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 4:00am EST

Mon, 2 February 2026

Keith shares how a recent trip to Colorado Springs and a changing commission landscape reveal what really matters for real estate investors now

From there, the show dives into the three levers investors truly control—leverage, operations, and relationships—before welcoming lender Caeli Ridge to break down the major mortgage options for investors.

You’ll hear how different loan types fit different strategies: from your first conventional “golden ticket” loans, to DSCR loans based on property income, to short-term fix-and-flip and bridge loans that prioritize speed and flexibility.

The episode then moves into how more advanced investors can scale beyond 10 doors, navigate debt-to-income and tax strategy, and even approach financing for short-term rentals—all while highlighting why having the right lending partner and long-term plan can make a big difference to your results.

Episode Page:

GetRichEducation.com/591

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GRE Investment Coach, start here:

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RidgeLendingGroup.com or call 855-74-RIDGE

or e-mail: info@RidgeLendingGroup.com

Invest with Freedom Family Investments.

For predictable 10-12% quarterly returns, visit FreedomFamilyInvestments.com/GRE or text 1-937-795-8989 to speak with a freedom coach

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590: Is the World Overpopulated or Underpopulated? What it Means for Housing's Future

Complete episode transcript:

Keith Weinhold 0:01

Welcome to GRE. I'm your host. Keith Weinhold with new ways to think about your life through goals momentum in the real estate market. Then learn about various mortgage loan types, conventional DSCR, fix and flip, bridge loans, short term rental loans and more. Knowing which loans to use can save you millions and learn the fatal mortgage mistakes you must avoid today on get rich education.

Corey Coates 0:29

since 2014 the powerful get rich education podcast has created more passive income for people than nearly any other show in the world. This show teaches you how to earn strong returns from passive real estate investing in the best markets without losing your time being a flipper or landlord. Show Host Keith Weinhold writes for both Forbes and Rich Dad advisors and delivers a new show every week since 2014 there's been millions of listener downloads and 188 world nations. He has a list show guests include top selling personal finance author Robert Kiyosaki. Get rich education can be heard on every podcast platform, plus it has its own dedicated Apple and Android listener phone apps build wealth on the go with the get rich education podcast. Sign up now for the get rich education podcast or visit get rich education.com

Speaker 1 1:14

You're listening to the show that has created more financial freedom than nearly any show in the world. This is get rich education.

Keith Weinhold 1:30

Welcome to GRE from Winnebago, Minnesota to Winnipeg, Manitoba, and across 188 nations worldwide. I'm Keith Weinhold, and you're listening to get rich education, the voice of real estate investing since 2014 before we get into the mortgage discussion, where we'll discuss five or 10 different investor loan types and their various pros and cons, which could save you millions over the course of your life. I shared with you that I traveled to Colorado A couple weeks ago, for a goals retreat hosted by the real estate guys, top notch event, I spent extra time there in Colorado Springs, because I find it really livable, and I spent five hours with a local realtor there, one day out and about visiting properties in the area I'm potentially looking for a home or a second home. And by the way, how is this for a price range? The realtor wanted to know what my Buy Box is, and since I'm just learning the Colorado Springs market, I told him I'm willing to spend between 400k and 1.2 million on the property, yeah, pretty wide range, a mile wide. Fortunately, my other Buy Box criteria are more narrow and specific, and I have got to say, I'm surprised at how low the area's home prices are. I thought they'd be higher. Interestingly, before touring homes, my buyer agent wanted me to sign a six month exclusive representation agreement. Fair enough, that's standard stuff. It was on the agreement, though, that I as the buyer pay a 3% commission up on the purchase, and the seller would presumably pay the other 3% to make up that total 6% commission for the agent compensation. Well, historically, the seller paid the entire 6% and this, of course, goes back to the NAR settlement, and that ruling that became effective in August of 2024 you probably remember this, and I talked about it on the show back then, and how it's not really that big of a deal, especially to investors like us, because at GRE marketplace and with our GRE investment coaching, it's a direct model. There's zero commission on either side, and then you, in turn, get some of those savings, but out in the larger world and in the owner occupant world. Well, that rule change that started a year and a half ago. It means that sellers are no longer required to pay the buyer's agent. Instead, the fee is now negotiable between buyers and their agent. The other change is that property listings no longer display the buyer agent's commission offer. But here's what's interesting in practice, and what really ends up happening in the end, in most cases, is that the seller still pays the full commission and compensates both agents that full 6% sometimes it's 5% instead of six buyers and buyer agents, they still operate under the seller pays. And that's largely because that has just been the norm. It's what's seemingly always been done. It's what buyers are used to. And the reason that that often persists. Is because the seller is the party in the transaction that has that thick equity in the property, deep equity, and buyers are the ones often just trying to scrape together whatever they can for a down payment and closing costs. Buyers are not going to be able to come up with another 15k for an agent commission when they're buying a 500k property, that's 3% especially today, this is true because American homeowners the seller then still have record equity positions of about 300k an all time high. Nearly half of mortgaged homes are considered equity rich. What does equity rich mean? It means that the loan balance is less than half of the home's value, yeah, the seller has the means to pay the full commission. So the point is, in practice, the seller, yeah, still pays that full five to 6% commission in the overwhelming majority of cases, and the buyer pays nothing. And if that does change, it's going to take a long time. You know, a lot of these evanescent real estate stories that people think are going to have some seismic impact. It rarely does, like this erstwhile NAR ruling or the 50 year mortgage proposal or banning big institutions for buying more single family rentals. You know, this stuff is like one little baseball sized asteroid striking an entire planet. I mean, it's like a barely discernible impact. Real estate is anchored in one place like Jabba the Hut. It is solid. These stories are interesting, but they're not impactful.

Keith Weinhold 6:52

Instead, I've mentioned it before. What are three things you control in real estate that really matter. And these are evergreen things. First, it's, how many dollars are you leveraging? That's where your wealth is going to come from. In fact, we're going to discuss that today with mortgage loan types. Second, what's the efficiency of operations on your existing properties? And thirdly, what is the quality of your relationships? And actually, we're addressing the third one today too, talking to a lender that you could make part of your team. You can control these three things. They're unyielding, they're evergreen, they're long term, and they all have gratitas and impact those three things, leverage operations and relationships. Now my agent drops me off and picks me up from my hotel here at the Broadmoor in Colorado Springs. This was also the event hotel for the goals retreat. I just extended my stay to hang out in the area. Look at real estate, do some climbing on Pikes Peak. Pro tip for you on hotel room rates, talk to a human being before I booked my stay, I called the front desk and asked them if they could extend the attractive event room rate to more nights on my extended stay. And they agreed. You might have heard of the Broadmoor. It is well known. It's been here for more than 100 years, and it is such a fine place to stay. Let me tell you about this special piece of real estate. In fact, I've thought it through, and I will now hereby proclaim that it is the finest us hotel experience that I've ever had in my life. I say us because I stayed at an amazing place in Dubai. But what makes the Broadmoor stand alone? It's the details and the service. A lot of hotels are nice, but this is on a different level. And I don't say this to brag, and this is because you probably can afford to stay here, yeah, like I have. You might have paid more elsewhere in your life for a lesser hotel, although I am here in the low seasons. Okay, now, sure, you've got views of the Rockies and a man made lake and waterfall and even a beautiful chandelier in my hotel room. The thing that sets it apart, though, is you have this service that feels old world and not corporate. That's what makes the difference. The Broadmoor is horse themed, since horses are a symbol of the American West. There are about 800 rooms here. It's kind of like a self contained adult Disneyland championship golf courses, a world class spa, even an outdoor lap swimming pool like that has lanes that I swam in one morning for. Fine dining, casual dining, access to hiking, fly fishing, even falconry, zip lines, tennis, pickleball pools. Take the cog railway to the Pikes Peak, Summit. Okay. Now, other nice hotels have attractions that are sort of like that, but when I rave about the service, it's the little things they are knocking on my door before 10am to come in and clean the room. And you know how so commonly, when you first check into your hotel room and you look in the closet, there are not enough clothing hangers, and they're all like stupidly mismatched. These all match. They're all nice wood, and there are plenty of them. So I'm talking about these details. I'm telling you. I had dinner at one of the broadmoor's restaurants the other night. I just happened to take a close look at the tag on the napkin. Sure enough, it is made in Italy. I mean, jeez, no detail is overlooked at this stellar place. In fact, here's what I'll do. You know, I'll just completely stop my Colorado Springs home search right now. Instead, I'm going to stop down by the Broadmoor front desk, tell him to give me some moving boxes, because I'm moving into the Broadmoor and I'll be here for the next decade. Start forwarding my mail here and everything. And hey, at least I was courteous enough to give them notice. I can't stay here too long, or my standards will be rising faster than my net worth. Yeah, yeah. Can't go to sleep with a mint on your pillow every night, I suppose.

Keith Weinhold 11:38

Now, the reason I came here now is to attend that aforementioned goals retreat, and let me take all the time and all the resources that I put into being here and distill them into just a few of the most salient takeaways for you. Goals should be smart, strategic, measurable, actionable, relevant and time based, they must be written down. Now, how would you describe yourself to somebody else that didn't know who you were? Write that down next. What do you think your reputation is? How would others describe you? Write that down now that you can see how you describe yourself and how others describe you, you can see that there's a gap there. That gap is what you need to work on. I learned that goal should be written in the present tense, not the future tense. I did not know that before. For example, say it is January 1, 2035, and I own $5 million in rental property. That's an example of how you would do that. So take future events and write them in the present tense. Other questions at the goals retreat that got really introspective are, what are you really going to do with your life? And write down that answer. Sheesh, that is tough. And if you think that's a hard question for you to ask of yourself, the next one is even harder. It's simply why? Why is that where you're going with your life? And then write that down? I mean, would you answer questions like this for yourself? And you really think about it, that can occupy a new segment of your entire headspace. It is a big cognitive load, and a last one to leave you with is to dream not just big, but gigantic. Get it out there, write down a dream that interests you, but it's so grandiose that you're actually embarrassed to tell someone about this stretch dream, for example, for me, it's the first person to walk on another planet. No human has ever done that, and this would most likely happen on Mars. See, this is so grand that is sort of embarrassing for me to even share that with you. It almost makes you sound Loony, like I would have to learn so many new skills to travel to and walk on Mars. But you should write down a bunch of other goals too. You're sort of brainstorming on goals, attainable goals. Recall that is the A in the SMART goals acronym, you want to write down a bunch of attainable ones, not just that stretch one. So for attainable ones, one of them is for me to become the highest man on earth. To give you an example. And I attempted that goal two years ago, and I failed. I told you about that at that time. But see now, compared to my embarrassing stretch goal of walking on Mars, the highest man on earth feels attainable, I know what it takes to achieve it, and it's worth doing, ah, but it's a grind to get there, yet it would be worth it. Those are some quick take. Ways from the real estate guys goals retreat while on stage the event host Robert helms he took a minute respite from the goals material, and he recognized the fact that, as he calls it, the four OG real estate podcasters are all in the same room. One of them is helms himself, and now I feel like the other three are all older and doing it longer than me. I was one of the four that he mentioned. But you know, there is only one podcast that was mentioned from stage, and that is that Robert helms told the audience that they should be listening to the get rich education podcast. That was a nice thing to say, and he is always a gracious giver.

Keith Weinhold 15:45

Next, we're talking about four major loan types, conventional DSCR, fix and flip and then bridge loans. When we discuss the first two parts of it could sound repetitive, but you'll see why we do this, because then you'll be able to compare it to nichey loan types that we discuss, for example, the speed of a bridge loan, where you can get funded in just one week, compared to a slower conventional loan. The mortgage landscape changes. I still remember how in 2012 we had still somewhat freshly emerged from the global financial crisis, and back then, you could only get four conventional loans, four rental properties, not 10 like you can today, 20 married. So get your loans while you can, you probably won't always be able to get 10 loans. We'll start with loan types that are more for beginners, and then we'll get to advanced material. Let's welcome back one of our favorite recurring guests.

Keith Weinhold 16:54

You can make millions more throughout your life by understanding mortgage loans. This is key, and today it's the return of the woman that's created more financial freedom through real estate than any other lender in the entire nation, because she's the president of ridge lender group. Hey, it's time for a big welcome back to the incomparable, yet somehow still so approachable Chaley Ridge

Caeli Ridge 17:16

my Keith, thank you for having me. I love being here. I love what you're doing. It's my pleasure, sir.

Keith Weinhold 17:23

And our followers, our listeners, have been approaching you since 2015 you're one of the longest running guests, truly one of the OGS around here at GRE and now Caeli, before we discuss loan types. You know, we don't really talk politics on this show rather policies, and we're in the midst of a presidential administration that often, in the name of the word affordability, is trying to supremely shake things up in the housing market. Help us dissect what matters and what won't.

Caeli Ridge 17:58

I have found that at least as it relates to current administration, whoever that might be, I wait for the buzzwords or the taglines to become the actual policy. Like you said, That's a good point in this case. You know, you've got things floating around, like the 50 year mortgage cutting off the hedge fund guys and that kind of thing. Whether or not, those things come to fruition. I'm happy to give my opinion on them. I do not think that it's going to move the needle much for the people that you and I serve with regard to I mean, just taking them one at a time, I don't think that the 50 year is going to come to fruition. Just first and foremost, if it did do, I think it would be a good idea for a homeowner, probably not, but for an investor, maybe if there's some way that we can keep our payment lower, given the maturity date of a mortgage for an investment property is usually about five years. I mean, I know that this is a 30 year fixed mortgage, but statistically speaking, the average shelf life of a non owner occupied mortgage is about five years. So getting a 50 year amortization, if that were going to reduce the payment, I don't think is a bad thing for an investor, however, and this may get a little bit technical for the listeners, so I apologize in advance if we were to go to a 50 Year am the adjustments, something called, and you and I have talked about this before, something called an llpa, that stands for loan level price adjustment, I think would be such that it could end up defeating the purpose of having the longer term amortization, because I think the interest rates would be higher and I think they may offset so that was a long way to say. One, I don't think it's going to happen. I don't think it's actually going to get to its final resting place. And two, would it be a good idea for investors, yeah, I think it would be worth considering if it kept the payment lower. Okay, that's that as the other piece to cutting off the hedge funds, the big, you know, BlackRock, some of the big players, and giving them access to the residential housing and first right of infusion or etc, because they've got such deep pockets. You. It's such a small amount to what our individual investors are going to have access to that I don't think that that moves the needle either. So I don't know if I'm answering the question, except to say anything that they're going to tout, I would wait for it to actually become written in stone and pass by the rest of the powers that be before I would get excited about or concerned about any of it.

Keith Weinhold 20:21

This is pretty parallel with what I've been telling our listeners. All these things seem to make splashy news, but I haven't seen anything that's going to make a deep impact yet, whether it's the 50 year mortgage, which probably won't even come to fruition, or if it's doing these mortgage bond buy downs in order to bring more liquidity into the market and bring rates down, or if it sees any of these other things being discussed with these institutional investors, since they already own such a smaller proportion of the housing market than a lot of people think, we'll discuss seasoned real estate investors and their loans shortly, but first for newer real estate investors, you Know, chili, I kind of think of four or more loan types that a beginner should be familiar with. I think of conventional loans, dscrs, fix and flips and then bridge loans, the first one with conventional loans. What are the basics that someone should know?

Caeli Ridge 21:17

So first of all, you should know that there are 10 of these. We call them the golden tickets. I'm pretty sure I coined this, okay, 100 years ago, the golden ticket. We call the conventional aka Fannie Freddie, aka agency. They go by different names, but they all mean the same thing. We call them the golden tickets because it's the highest leverage and typically at the lowest interest rate you can find. Now I do have a hook in our conversation today about that. I'll get we'll get to it. There are 10 of these per qualified individual. So one of the first things that I would tell somebody is, is that if they are a partnership or a husband and wife team, you want to make sure to keep the debt obligation separate, because if you want to maximize these golden tickets, let's just say it's a husband and wife team. You each have, per qualification access to 10, and that includes a primary residence. In fact, let me just take a quick second and define what counts in the 10, because some people get this wrong. So the 10 golden tickets are counted by any residential property, single family, up to four Plex that has a loan on it, where the loan is in the individual name or personally guaranteed by the individual. That's where people get tied up. So if they went out and got a kind of more of a commercial type loan, that was in an LLC name, for example, but they signed a personal guarantee, per Fannie Freddie guidelines, that particular mortgage is going to count against the 10. So those would be some of the first pieces of news or detail I would give them about conventional

Keith Weinhold 22:40

for married couples, don't take ownership in both the husband and wife's name, either the husband or the wife. That way, you can get to 20 rather than 10. And yes, you do have to be mindful that your primary residence does count in that 10 or 20, whatever it might be. Anything else quickly with conventional loans, LTVs so on,

Caeli Ridge 23:01

yeah, LTV can go to 85% loan to value. So you get a little bit extra than you're going to get in some of the other loan product types. It will have PMI, private mortgage insurance, anything over 80% LTV will always have PMI on a more conforming, conventional basis. So keep that in mind. But the factor is pretty low. I would encourage people that are looking to stretch the almighty dollar. Do the math. Look at the 85 with PMI against, say, an 80% and see what are you giving up versus what you're getting. And then qualification stuff, you guys, my dumb joke, it's Keith's favorite. I'm sure vials of blood and DNA samples are sort of required for the Fannie Freddie loans. So just be prepared to supply or submit us the tax returns and pay stubs and bank statements and and all that stuff,

Keith Weinhold 23:44

you'll feel like you're getting fingerprinted almost for a conventional loan qualification. And the second one that I brought up DSCR loans, that's short for debt service coverage ratio. And these mortgages are pretty standard for rental properties. They're underwritten based on a property's income potential. So you know, the way I think of dscrs Chaley from the lender's perspective, is that sustainable cash flow is what matters. The rent has got to support the property's monthly mortgage payments. So we talked to us more about dscrs.

Caeli Ridge 24:15

Yeah, I love this product, and this is for somebody that either can't fit into the conventional Fannie Freddie box, or maybe they've exhausted their golden tickets and they're graduating and moving on. This is a great option that will reduce the amount of vials of blood and DNA samples that you're going to have to submit. It still provides for a 30 year fixed mortgage. The leverage is roughly the same, 80% in most cases, on a purchase. And to your point, the gross income divided by the principal, interest, taxes, insurance and Hoa, if it's applicable, is the simple formula, the easy method I'll give people, just to kind of solidify that math, is that if the gross rents were $1,000 a month, and if the PI TI was $1,000 a month, when you divide that, your debt service is 1.0 Now you can go as low, believe it or not, as low as a point seven, five, DSCR, they have those available be ready for the interest rate to get a little hair on it. Okay, it's going to be higher than what the 1.0 and above is going to be. But you can go as low as point seven, five, those are going to be for the investors that have found a property, maybe in distress, and they cannot show the current market value rent, perhaps, and it's on the low end. So you can still get that done at point seven, five, just be ready for a higher interest rate.

Keith Weinhold 25:30

So the DSCR loan an alternative for you, which might be especially useful, like Chaley touched on, if you've already exhausted your 10 golden ticket. Fannie Freddie loans, a DSCR of 1.2 for example, means that your rent income needs to exceed your principal, interest, taxes and insurance payment by 20% or more. That's what we're talking about here. And then Chile, those were more of loans for the buy and hold type of investor. Tell us about fix and flip loans.

Caeli Ridge 26:03

Yeah. So these are shorter term loan that will allow you to include not just the purchase of the property, but also some renovation or rehab money if you need that. And we're going to be looking at an ARV after repair value. So you've got a purchase price, you've got your renovation or scope of work budget. And then we're looking for an ARV with the ARV to be somewhere around 75% so what that means, if you've not heard of this before, you're going to take, let's say, $100,000 value. And if we want the ARV to be at 75% we're going to lend 75,000 is kind of the mix there. Those are quicker loans. You're going to be paying much higher rates on those. You know, between nine and 13% depending on the deal. The points are also going to be a little bit higher, but a great option for that quick turn and burn where you know your deal has enough skin in it and you can recapture all your capital and make a good tidy profit on it.

Keith Weinhold 26:53

We're talking about basically fixer upper loans here with Chaley Ridge, the president of ridge lending group, yes, these are jalopies that rarely qualify for traditional bank financing. And oftentimes, when I think about these fix and flip loans, I'm thinking that often there is interest only flexibility with regard to those higher interest rates that you need to pay. And I think of it as, you know, a shorter term loan that you've got during your renovation period, oftentimes 12 to 18 months. Does that sound about right?

Caeli Ridge 27:24

Yeah, 6,18, even 24 months. And to your point, yes, all of these are going to be interest only. And one of the cool things is about these loans is, is that, if there's enough room in the deal, right, based on what you need to borrow and what we think the ARV is expected to be, you don't even actually have to be making those interest payments. You can build it into the final payout when we go to refinance you out of this short term loan, or you simply sell the property and pay off that loan. So for example, let's say that your interest only payment is $1,000 a month, okay? And the value of the property is going to be $200,000 and you only took 120 okay, we're going to be well within that 75% ARV. You can build in that $1,000 say, for 12 months, there's $12,000 and just add it to the outstanding balance that you started by owing, and not have to be making those payments on an ongoing basis. It's not rented, right? So it might be nice to be able to factor that in to the actual payoff when you go to refinance that if it's a fix and hold versus go to sell it on a fix and flip.

Keith Weinhold 28:31

Now, long term, we know that the big gains for real estate investors really come from that leveraged appreciation getting that loan. But sometimes there are situations where we might want to act as a cash buyer. And that brings up this fourth of four loan types that I brought up, the bridge loan, short term loans that can temporarily finance a property purchase while you're waiting for a longer term loan to come through. The bridge loan, so I think of it as a pretty speedy loan, if you sort of want to act like you're an all cash buyer.

Caeli Ridge 29:04

Yeah, I like this, and in many ways it's similar to a fix and flip interest only. Obviously the term is going to be shorter, six months, 12 months, up to 24 months, and based on largely relationship, the bridge loan for the purpose that you described, really comes into play for an investor that we know and we're comfortable with, we can fund those inside a week, for somebody that we've done several of these loans for. So for those that need that really quick turn, once you've established yourself as a seasoned, experienced investor in that space, those are pretty slick and easy to get through.

Keith Weinhold 29:39

Why would someone use a bridge loan, rather than a fix and flip loan.

Caeli Ridge 29:43

So if they're in a very competitive market, that might be another option, because those are going to be faster. The bridge loan is going to be faster where they need to say that they're an all cash buyer and they only need seven days to close, or whatever it is. It depends on the municipality in the state. But what if you're at the courthouse steps? And you need cash quickly. Sometimes it needs to be immediate. So that might not be applicable in this case, but if you put the bid in, and you win the bid, and you've got, you know, three days to perform, usually we can get those done. So it's circumstantial. Those would be two variables or two scenarios that that would apply to

Keith Weinhold 30:17

the bridge loan gives you the advantage of speed, but that speed can come at a cost.

Caeli Ridge 30:22

Oh yeah, yeah, you're going to be paying probably three points, maybe four points, and it's short term interest, 13, 14%

Keith Weinhold 30:30

so with these four loan types that we've discussed, conventional DSCR, fix and flip and bridge loans, you can kind of see that there is a loan for most every investment scenario, and there's no reason to rely on only one type, a flipper. Might start with a short term fix and flip loan or a bridge loan and then later refinance to a DSCR or a conventional loan. So consider mixing and matching based on your needs. You're listening to get rich education. We're talking with Ridge leninger, President Taylor Ridge, more when we come back, including steps for more advanced investors, I'm your host. Keith Weinhold

Keith Weinhold 31:06

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Keith Weinhold 32:08

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Keith Weinhold 33:19

the same place where I get my own mortgage loans is where you can get yours. Ridge lending group and MLS, 42056, they provided our listeners with more loans than anyone because they specialize in income properties. They help you build a long term plan for growing your real estate empire with leverage, start your pre qual and even chat with President chailey Ridge personally, while it's on your mind, start at Ridge lending group.com that's Ridge lending group.com

Blair Singer 33:53

this is Rich Dad, sales advisor, Blair singer. Listen to get rich education with Keith Weinhold. And above all, don't quit your Daydream.

Keith Weinhold 34:09

Welcome back to get rich education chili when we go beyond this beginner stage that we've been discussing, how about for an investor just trying to scale to 10 doors worth of one to four unit properties. Now, are there any strategies there or more of a loan order that you would recommend in getting up to your first 10 you know

Caeli Ridge 34:29

I think the strategy starts with calling your lender, ideally Ridge lending group, and having that deep strategy call that, that discovery call, so that we can really understand and plant some seeds that say, Okay, Mr. Jones, these are your qualifications today. This is where you want to be in a year or 10 years. These are the steps that are going to be important that we are mindful of and we take to accomplish and reach those milestones. It's really important to have that baseline understanding of what is your debt to income ratio on day one, what are your assets? Sets. What is your credit? Where do you want to be in a year or 10 years? Right? Do you want 10 properties in a year's time? It's going to be a very different conversation than if you're going to slow roll this and want to establish 10 purchases or 10 investment properties over 10 years. So identifying those details is going to be part one, and then next, in terms of order, I would say, largely the higher price point properties, typically, I would say, put those in one through six. And the reason that I'm saying that is is that the underwriting guidelines under conventional financing, they will change based on how many finance properties you have. So of all of the inner working guidelines and things that go into securing a conventional mortgage loan, the three top most heavily weighted are going to be debt to income ratio, credit score and assets. Okay? And within each one of those, the marker or the qualification guideline changes as you evolve and acquire more property. So the higher up the ring you go, or the rung that you go to 10, the more restrictive the guidelines are going to be. So I would typically say, get the higher price point properties go into maybe one to four, one to six, if that's part of your strategy and your diversification of portfolio ownership. Then after you've established having two or three or four properties and that higher price point it as it gets harder to qualify, potentially, if your debt to income ratio is a little bit tight, you've got the smaller loan sizes that might be less impactful in debt to income ratio. All of this is very subjective to the individual's qualifications and needs, of course, but that might be one rule of thumb that I would take

Keith Weinhold 36:39

gosh, this This is absolute gold in helping you structure the architecture of a growing income property portfolio. And we're coming up on this Super Bowl, and whatever mortgage lender advertises for the Super Bowl or has some big, splashy campaign nationally, you know they are not the ones that are going to have conversations like this for you, they might be fine for buying a primary residence, but this is why you want to have a long term strategy and work with a lender that's aligned with you on exactly that sort of thing. And Chaley, is there a specific way in which one can avoid hitting the Fannie Freddie loan ceilings too early if you haven't already touched on it.

Caeli Ridge 37:22

Yeah, very good question. You know, I think that this is going to come down to a debt to income ratio conversation. It's easy enough to ensure that we contain assets and credit. Those are easier conversations. The debt to income ratio is the piece that's more complicated and can get away from an investor without them even knowing it. You don't know what you don't know, right? So I would say that debt to income ratio and making sure that your lender again, hopefully Ridge lending, because we know this like we know our own faces, making sure they know how to structure and provide feedback and consult on that schedule E, part of the beauty of real estate investing is the tax deductions. Right? Many people get into real estate investing, not for the cash flow, not even for the appreciation, but for that tax strategy, because they're high wage earners, or whatever it may be, and they're sick of paying x in taxes. So the debt to income ratio is key in scaling and making sure you can continue to qualify for those loans. The conversations that we have with our clients really go deep about where we can maximize our deductions to ensure that we get the tax benefit without precluding our qualification on a conventional underwriting basis in the DTI category.

Keith Weinhold 38:35

Now, during my growth as an investor, when I got above 10 doors, one gets above 20 doors. When one gets to 216 doors, I began where I needed to qualify more on a DSCR basis, where the lender is looking at the properties qualification, more so than me. So are there any other thoughts with regard to how one can set themselves up for success in really going big and well beyond 10 doors

Caeli Ridge 39:03

absolutely so once we've exhausted the Fannie Freddie, and I think one of the real value adds about Ridge is that we are not a one size fits all, and we are extremely holistic versus transactional. So having that first conversation and understanding what those goals are, so that we can pivot as we need to maximize the golden tickets, whether that be 10 to 20, right? If you're in a marriage or a partnership or whatever, and then setting up for the DSCR loans when the time comes, and taking advantage of those, there is no limit to how many DSCR loans we can get for one individual. We have yet to file an individual that we've had to say no, and we've done quite a few of the high, high acquisition investors, so I don't expect that to be an issue, but yeah, I think it's about planning, planting those seeds, creating roadmaps together and have those smart discovery conversations.

Keith Weinhold 39:50

Now, as you grow, one way you might diversify is to have perhaps at least a part of your portfolio in short term rentals. So what I. Comes to getting loans for sort of Airbnb or VRBO type properties. What does one look for there? How much does the landscape change versus the longer term rentals that we've mostly been talking about here?

Caeli Ridge 40:10

Yeah, I think that the differences are going to be about purchase versus refinance. If we're just talking about purchases, let's kind of try to keep it in one lane. If we're talking about purchasing a short term rental, you may be limited on leverage. You might lose a little bit of leverage, 5% let's say you could get to 75% and maybe on a short term they're going to back it off to 70% LTV, so there may be reduction in that loan to value. And the way in which we're going to quantify the income is absolutely important to share with your listeners on a purchase transaction, we have access to things like an appraisal. An appraisal is going to give us some median rental income, whether it be long term or short term, that we will use to offset a new mortgage payment if that's needed for the individual's debt to income ratio qualification. Now, if they don't need the rental income to qualify, then it's a non issue. But if they do, like most of us, need that rental income to absorb this new mortgage payment that we are securing for them, how that's going to quantify is important. So if it's not in a short term rental area, let's just say it's kind of off the beaten path, and there may not be enough data points to support the income that you need. It's important to know that up front versus way down the rabbit hole, when you paid for appraisals and you're all the way through the transaction and earnest money might be off the table if you had to cancel that kind of thing. So really important to understand the numbers in advance, I would say, when we talk about short term rentals and how the income is going to be quantified from an underwriting perspective,

Keith Weinhold 41:43

why does a borrower often need to make a higher down payment on a short term rental than they do a long term rental?

Caeli Ridge 41:49

You know, I think that in secondary markets, as we talk about mortgage backed securities and things like that, it's looked at as a higher risk. A short term rental is going to be a higher risk than just the stable long term, long burn tenant is going to be there and they've got their lease for a year, two years or whatever, at a time, the short term rental is more volatile and it's seasonal. It can be I mean, there's all those different factors, so higher risk means more skin in the game for the investor.

Keith Weinhold 42:13

That makes a lot of sense. Does that higher risk also translate into a higher mortgage rate for short term rentals than long term rentals?

Caeli Ridge 42:18

Fannie Freddie versus DSCR The answer is no. On the Fannie Freddie side, the interest rate's not going to change on a DSCR loan. Yes, it can be slightly higher, usually about about a quarter of a percentage point on a short term versus a long term.

Keith Weinhold 42:33

Now, are there any particular markets that lenders want to avoid with short term rental loans?

Caeli Ridge 42:39

No, as long as the property is habitable, and all the other metrics fit Qualifications and Credit and assets and all that stuff. No, there isn't a market that we're going to have any issues with now. We do get the notifications for natural disaster areas, and as that relates to the appraisal and things like that, if it's in a natural disaster area or zone, we may have to hold funding until after the disaster is over, and then we can go and take more pictures and make sure it's still standing and there's no major issues. But otherwise, aside from that, as long as it's habitable, no, there is no market restriction.

Keith Weinhold 43:12

Yes, with that variability of income for short term rentals, you can understand how a lender would be more careful in making a loan, and would want you, the borrower, to put more skin in the game for a short term rental. Well, Caeli, overall, what should an investor do in the next 24 hours to make themselves more lendable before contacting someone like you?

Caeli Ridge 43:36

I would say the answer is sticky, but call rich lending group. That's how you're going to make yourself more lendable. And the reason that I can say that is is that everybody's qualifications and needs and goals are inherently different. So calling someone that understands this landscape and can navigate the battleship in the creek like I like to say, that's the visual aid for those of you that need the visual is the first key. And with that conversation, we're going to be able to identify for you specifically what you would need to do to become more lendable. And it may be nothing

Keith Weinhold 44:07

well over there, Chaley, you're growing. You do loans in almost all 50 states. The GRE podcast has more than 5.8 million listener downloads, and you have helped countless GRE listeners acquire smart investor loans for fully a decade now. Just amazing. So talk to us about all of the loan types that you offer investors there at ridge.

Caeli Ridge 44:30

My gosh. Okay, so I think one of the real value adds for us is that we have such a diverse menu of loan products. We touched on a few of them already. So we've got the conventional Fannie Mae Freddie, Mac stuff. We've got our DSCR loans. We have bank statement loans, asset depletion loans. I can touch on those if you want. Keith, we have our short term bridge fix and flip. We have our All In One my favorite, first lien, HELOC we have second lien HELOCs. We have commercial loan products, and commercial can apply to residential and commercial property. A cross collateralization, commercial for residential properties. That just means, if you're putting 10 single families into one blanket loan, that would be cross collateralization, or if you're buying a storage unit that's straight commercial, and probably even more than that, ground up construction, there's really not a limit to the loan products that we offer, specifically for investors. The only thing we don't have, I would say in our arsenal is bare land loans. Those are hard to come by

Keith Weinhold 45:24

It sounds like you recommend a call in order to get some of that back and forth, to learn how you can best help that investor. But tell us about all the ways that someone

Caeli Ridge 45:32

can get a hold of you. Yes, there's a few ways. Of course, our website, ridgeline group.com, you can call us toll free at 855-747434385, 747-434-3855, 74, Ridge. Or feel free to email us info at Ridge lending group.com

Keith Weinhold 45:49

and you might get lucky. Hey, spin the wheel. Chaele does get on the phone and talk to individual investors herself too. So Chaley, it's been valuable as always to cover all these different loan types for beginners, and then what one does when they advance beyond that. It's been great having you back on the show.

Caeli Ridge 46:09

Thank you, Keith. I appreciate you.

Keith Weinhold 46:16

Oh yeah, a lot to learn from Chaley today. You've got mortgage rates three quarters to 1% lower than they were a year ago. At this time, in fact, last month, they ticked below 6% for the first time in years, and their lowest level in over three years. But when you introduce geopolitical uncertainty, well, that tends to make rates tick up again. Now, just what does happen when you have a lower overall rate trend like we have? Well, in this cycle, it's already spurred an increase in housing sales volume. It surged to 4.3 5 million in the latest reporting month, and that is the hottest annualized pace in nearly three years. Some of the same people who said, wait until rates fall, they're about to realize that prices didn't wait. Demand comes back fast. Inventory doesn't if mortgage rates take another leg lower, we could see quite a refinance wave in balanced markets or in supply constrained markets, bidding wars could follow. Now I've shared with you before that I totally do not predict interest rates. I don't know if anyone should. It is a great way to be fantastically wrong and supremely waste a lot of people's time. Instead, I think it's more efficacious for you to be able to interpret the signs that can trigger a further rate drop. Those signs are a weak jobs report that tends to bring lower rates because the labor market needs the help. So does softening wage growth, GDP below expectations, inflation continuing to cool, or a pickup in US Treasury demand. These are all signs that can lead to even lower rates. In fact, right now, with already lower rates and higher wages, real estate is more affordable than it's been in about three years, but overall, longer term, yeah, income properties still feel somewhat less affordable. It's less affordable than it was in pre pandemic times. That's for real for US investors, though, affordability is less about the price of the property, it's about whether the property pays for itself and grows your net worth while inflation does the heavy lifting for you, that's why it still works for us as investors. Higher prices don't kill investors inaction during inflation does you're not so much buying a say, 350k property. You're controlling it with 70k while your tenant and inflation do the rest. We don't rely on hope or appreciation. We start with inflation, tax benefits and debt pay down, and then appreciation typically happens too. A lot of times, the question for us goes beyond whether or not a property is affordable. The question is whether owning an investment property is better than inflation compounding against us, which is an investor mindset for this era, Ridge landing gear. President Chaley Ridge is a regular guest here because the mortgage space is so dynamic and things change a lot. For that reason, we expect to have her with us every few months this year, I'll see you next week. I'm your host. Keith Weinhold, don't quit your Daydream.

Speaker 2 50:01

Keith Weinhold 50:30

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Direct download: GREepisode591_.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 4:00am EST

Mon, 26 January 2026

Keith challenges the usual “overpopulated vs. underpopulated” debate and shows why that’s the wrong way to think about demographics—especially if you’re a real estate investor.

Listeners will hear about surprising global population comparisons that flip common assumptions.

Why raw population numbers don’t actually explain housing shortages or rent strength.

How household formation, aging, and migration really drive demand for rentals.

Which kinds of markets tend to see persistent housing pressure—and why the US has a long‑term demographic edge.

You’ll come away seeing population headlines very differently, and with a clearer lens for spotting where future housing demand is most likely to show up.

Episode Page:

GetRichEducation.com/590

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589: Definitive Guide to Selling Your Investment Property: 721 Exchange, Three Other Options

Complete episode transcript:

Keith Weinhold 0:01

Keith, welcome to GRE. I'm your host. Keith Weinhold, is the world overpopulated or underpopulated? Also is the United States over or underpopulated? These are not just rhetorical questions, because I'm going to answer them both. Just one of Africa's 54 nations has more births than all of Europe and Russia combined. One US state has seen their population decline for decades. This is all central to housing demand today. On get rich education

Keith Weinhold 0:36

since 2014 the powerful get rich education podcast has created more passive income for people than nearly any other show in the world. This show teaches you how to earn strong returns from passive real estate investing in the best markets without losing your time being a flipper or landlord. Show Host Keith Weinhold writes for both Forbes and Rich Dad advisors, and delivers a new show every week since 2014 there's been millions of listener downloads of 188 world nations. He has a list show guests include top selling personal finance author Robert Kiyosaki. Get rich education can be heard on every podcast platform, plus it has its own dedicated Apple and Android listener phone apps build wealth on the go with the get rich education podcast. Sign up now for the get rich education podcast, or visit get rich education.com

Speaker 1 1:21

You're listening to the show that has created more financial freedom than nearly any show in the world. This is get rich education.

Keith Weinhold 1:31

Welcome to GRE from Norfolk Virginia to Norfolk, Nebraska and across 188 nations worldwide, you are inside. Get rich education. I am the GRE founder, Best Selling Author, longtime real estate investor. You can see my written work in Forbes and the USA Today, but I'm best known as the host of this incomprehensibly slack John operation that you're listening to right now. My name is Keith Weinhold. You probably know that already, one reason that we're talking about underpopulated versus overpopulated today is that also one of my degrees is in geography and demography, essentially, is human geography, and that's why this topic is in my wheelhouse. It's just a humble bachelor's degree, by the way, if a population is not staying stable or growing, then demand for housing just must atrophy away. That's what people think, but that is not true. That's oversimplified. In some cases. It might even be totally false. You're going to see why. Now, Earth's population is at an all time high of about 8.2 billion people, and it keeps growing, and it's going to continue to keep growing, but the rate of growth is slowing now. Where could all of the people on earth fit? This is just a bit of a ridiculous abstraction in a sense, but I think it helps you visualize things. Just take this scenario, if all the humans were packed together tightly, but in a somewhat realistic way, in a standing room only way, if every person on earth stood shoulder to shoulder, that would allow about 2.7 square feet per person, they would sort of be packed like a subway car. Well, they could fit in a square, about 27 kilometers on one side, about 17 miles on each side of that square. Now, what does that mean in real places that is smaller than New York City, about half the size of Los Angeles County and roughly the footprint of Lake Tahoe? So yes, every human alive today could physically fit inside one midsize us metro area. This alone tells you something important. The world's problem is certainly not a lack of space. Rather, it's where people live and not how many there are. So that was all of Earth's inhabitants. Now, where could all Americans fit us residents using the same shoulder to shoulder assumption, and the US population by mid year this year is supposed to be about 350,000,00349 that's a square about five and a half kilometers, or 3.4 miles on each side. And some real world comparisons there are. That's about half of Manhattan, smaller than San Francisco and roughly the size of Disney World, so every American could fit into a single small city footprint. And if you're beginning to form an early clue that we are not overpopulated globally, yes, that's the sense that you Should be getting.

Keith Weinhold 5:01

now, if you're in Bangladesh, it feels overpopulated there. They've got 175 million people, and that nation is only the size of Iowa. In area, Bangladesh is low lying and typhoon prone. They get a lot of flooding, which complicates their already bad sanitation problems and a dense population like that, and that creates waterborne diseases, and it's really more of an infrastructure problem in a place like Bangladesh than it is a population problem. Then Oppositely, you've got Australia as much land as the 48 contiguous states, yet just 27 million people in Australia, and only 1/400 as many people as Bangladesh in density. Now we talk about differential population. About 80% of Americans live in the eastern half of the US. But yet, the East is not overpopulated because we have sufficient infrastructure, and I've got some more mind blowing population stats for you later, both world and us. Now, as far as is the world overpopulated or underpopulated, which is our central question, depending on who you ask and where they live, you're going to hear completely different answers. Some people are convinced that the planet is bursting at the seams. Others warn that we're headed for a population collapse. But here's the problem, that question overpopulated or underpopulated, it's the wrong question. It's the wrong framing, especially if you're into real estate, because housing demand doesn't respond to total headcount or global averages or scary demographic headlines. Housing demand responds to where people live, how old they are, and how they form households. And once you understand this, a lot of things suddenly begin to make sense, like why housing shortages persist, why rents stay high, even when affordability feels stretched, why some states struggle while others boom, and why population headlines often mislead investors.

Keith Weinhold 7:20

So today I want to reframe how you think about population and connect it directly to housing demand, both globally and right here in the United States. And let's start with the US, because that's probably where you invest.

Keith Weinhold 7:33

Here's a simple fact that should confuse people, but usually doesn't, the United States has below replacement fertility. I'll talk about fertility rates a little later. They're similar to birth rates, meaning that Americans are not having enough children to replace the population naturally and without immigration, the US population would eventually shrink, and yet in the US, we have a housing shortage, rising rents, tight vacancy and a lot of metros and persistent demand for rental housing, which could all seem contradictory. Now, if population alone determine housing demand, well, then the US really shouldn't have any housing shortage at all, but it does so clearly, population alone is not the main driver, and really that contradiction is like your first clue that most demographic conversations are just missing the point. Aging does not reduce housing demand. The way that people think a misconception really is that an aging population automatically reduces housing demand. It does not, in fact, just the opposite. If a population is too young, well, that tends to kill housing demand, and that's because five year old kids and 10 year old kids do not form their own household. Instead, what an aging population often does is change the type of housing that's demanded, like seniors aging in place, some of them downsizing. Seniors living alone. Sometimes after a spouse passes away, others relocating closer to health care or to family. So aging can increase unit demand even if population growth slows. So already, we've broken two myths here. Slower population doesn't mean weaker housing demand, and aging doesn't mean fewer housing units are needed. Now let's explain why. Really, the core idea that unlocks everything is that people don't live inside, what are called Population units. They live in households. You are one person. That does not mean that your dwelling is then one population unit. That's not how that works. You are part of a household, whether that's a house a Household of one person or five or 11 people, housing demand is driven by the number of households, the type of households and where those households are forming, not by raw population totals. So the same population can have wildly different demand. Just think about how five people living together in one home, that's one housing unit, those same five people living separately, that is five housing units, same population, five times the housing demand. And this is why population statistics alone are almost useless for real estate investors, you need to know how people are living, not just how many there are. The biggest surge in housing demand happens when people leave their parents' homes or when they finish school or when they start working, or you got big surges in housing demand when people marry or when they separate or divorce. So in other words, adults create housing demand and children don't. And this is why a country with a youngish, working age population, oh, then they can have exploding housing demand. A country with high birth rates, but low household formation can have overcrowding without profitable housing growth. So it's not about babies, it's about independent adults, and what quietly boosts housing demand, then is housing fragmentation. Yeah, fragmentation. That's a trend that really doesn't get enough attention, and that is the trend, households are fragmenting, meaning more single adults later marriage, like I was talking about in a previous episode. Recently, higher divorce rates, more people living alone and older adults living independently, longer. Each one of those trends increases housing demand without adding any population whatsoever. When two people split up, they often need two housing units instead of one, and if you've got one adult living alone, that is full unit demand right there. So that's why housing demand can rise even when population growth slows or stalls for housing demand. What matters more than births is migration. And another key distinction is that, yes, births matter, but they're on somewhat of this 20 year delay and migration matters immediately, right now. So see, when a working age adult moves, they need housing right away. They typically rent first. They cluster near jobs, and they don't bring housing supply along with them. They've got to get it from someone else. Hopefully you in your rental unit.

Keith Weinhold 12:57

This is why migration is such a powerful force in rental markets, and you see me talk about migration on the show, and you see me send you migration maps in our newsletter. It's also why housing pressure shows up unevenly. It gets concentrated around opportunity. If you want to know the future, look at renters. Renters are the leading indicator, not homeowners and not birth rates. See renters create housing demand faster than homeowners, because renters form households earlier. They can do it quickly because they don't need down payments. Renters move more frequently and immigration overwhelmingly starts in rentals, fresh immigrants rarely become homeowners, so even when mortgage rates rise or home purchases slow or affordability headlines get scary, rental demand can stay strong. It's not a mystery, it's demographics. So births surely matter, but only over the long term. It's like how I've shared with you in a previous episode that the US had a lot of births between 1990 and 2010 those two decades, a surge of births more than 4 million every single one of those years during those two decades, with that peak birth year at 2007 but see a bunch of babies being born in 2007 Well, that didn't make housing demand surge, since infants don't buy homes. But if you add, say, 20 years to 2007 when those people start renting, oh, well, that rental demand peaks in 2027 or maybe a little after that, and since the first time, homebuyer age is now 40. If that stays constant, well, then native born homebuyer demand won't peak until 2047 so when it comes to housing demand, the important thing to remember is migration has an immediate effect and births have a delayed effect.

Keith Weinhold 15:02

and I'm going to talk more about other nations shortly, but the US has two major migration forces working simultaneously, domestic and international migration. I mean, Americans move a lot, although not as much as they used to, and people move for jobs, for taxes, for weather, for cost of living and for lifestyle. So this creates state level winners and losers, and Metro level housing pressure and rent growth in those destination markets and national population averages totally hide this. So that's domestic migration. And then on the international migration. The US has a long history, hundreds of years now on, just continually attracting working age adults from around the world. This matters immensely, because they arrive ready to work, and they form households quickly. They overwhelmingly rent first. They concentrate in metros, and this props up rental demand before it ever shows up in home prices. And this is why investors often feel the rent pressure first those rising rents.

Keith Weinhold 16:17

I've got more straight ahead, including Nigeria versus Europe, and what about the overpopulation straining the environment? If you like, episodes that explain why housing behaves the way it does, rather than just reacting to the headlines. You'll want to be on my free weekly newsletter. I break down demographics, housing, demand, inflation, investor trends and real estate strategy in plain English, often complemented with maps. You can join free at greletter.com that's gre letter.com

Keith Weinhold 16:53

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Keith Weinhold 17:54

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Keith Weinhold 19:05

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Chris Martenson 19:37

this is peak prosperity. Is Chris Martinson. Listen to get rich education with Keith Weinhold, and don't quit your Daydream.

Keith Weinhold 19:53

Welcome back to get rich Education. I'm your host, Keith Weinhold, and this is episode 590 yes, we're in my Geography wheelhouse today, as I'm talking human geography and demographics with how it relates to housing, while answering our central question today is the world and the US overpopulated or underpopulated? And now that we understand some mechanics here, let's go global. Here's one of the most mind bending stats in all of demographics. Are you ready for this? When you hear this, it's going to have you hitting up chat, GPT, looking it up. It's going to be so astonishing. So jaw dropping. Every year, Nigeria has more births than all of Europe plus all of Russia combined. Would you talk about Willis?

Keith Weinhold 20:47

Yeah, yes, you heard that, right? Willis, that's what I'm talking about. Willis. The source of that data is, in fact, from the United Nations. Yes, Nigeria has seven and a half million births every year. Compare that to all of Europe plus Russia combined, they only have about 6.3 million births per year. So you're telling me that today, just one West African nation, and there are 54 nations in Africa. Just one West African nation produces more babies than the entire continent of Europe, with all of its nations plus all of Russia, the largest world nation by area. Yes, that is correct. One country in Africa produces more babies every year than France, Germany, Italy, Spain, the UK, all of Europe, including all the Eastern European nations, and all of Russia combined. This is a demographic reality, and now you probably already know that less developed nations, like Nigeria have higher birth rates than wealthier, more developed ones like France or Switzerland. I mean, that's almost common knowledge, but something that people think about less is that poorer nations also have a larger household size, which sort of makes sense when you think about it. In fact, Nigeria has five persons per household. Spain has two and a half, and the US also has that same level two and a half. That one difference alone explains why population growth and housing demand are completely different stories now, the US had 3.3 people per household in 1950 and it's down to that two and a half today. That means that even if the population stayed the same, the housing demand would rise. And this is evidence of what I talked about before the break, that households are fragmenting within the US. You can probably guess which state has the largest household size due to their Mormon population. It's Utah at 3.1 the smallest is Maine at 2.3 they have an older population. In fact, Maine has America's oldest population. And as you can infer with what you've learned now, the fact that they have just 2.3 people per household means that if their populations were the same. Maine would need more housing units than Utah. By the way, if you're listening closely at times, I have referred to the United States as simply America. Yes, I am American. You are going to run into some people out there that don't like it. When US residents call themselves Americans, they say something like, Hey, you need a geography lesson. America runs from Nunavut all the way down to Argentina. Here's what to tell them. No, look, there are about 200 world nations. There is only one that has the word America in it, that is the United States of America that usually makes them lighten up. That is why I am an American, not a Peruvian or Bolivian, and there's no xenophobic connotation whatsoever. There are more productive things to think about moving on. Why births matter is because births today become future workers, renters, consumers and even migrants. But not evenly. Young populations move toward a few things. They're attracted to capital. They move towards stability. They're attracted to opportunity, and young populations move toward infrastructure. That's not ideology, that's the gravity and the US remains one of the strongest gravity wells on Earth, a big magnet, a big attractant. Now it's sort of interesting. I know a few a People that believe that the world is indeed overpopulated, they often tend to be environmental enthusiasts, and the environment is a concern, for sure, but how big of a concern is it? That's the debatable part. And you know, it's funny, I've run into the same people that think that the world is overpopulated, they seem to lament at school closures. You see more school closures because just there weren't as many children that were born after the global financial crisis. And these people that are afraid we have an overpopulation problem call school closures a sad phenomenon. They think it's sad. Well, if you want a shrinking population, then you're going to see a lot more than just schools close so many with environmental concerns, though. The thing is, is that they seem to discount the fact that humans innovate. More than 200 years ago, Thomas Malthus, he famously failed. He wrote a book, thinking that the global population would exceed what he called his carrying capacity, meaning that we wouldn't be able to feed everybody. He posited that, look, this is a problem. Populations grow exponentially, but food production only grows linearly. But he was wrong, because, due to agricultural innovation, we have got too many calories in most places. Few people thought this many humans could live in the United States, Sonoran and Mojave deserts, that's Phoenix in Las Vegas, respectively. But our ability to recycle and purify water allows millions of people to live there. So my point about running out of resources is that history shows us that humans are a resource ourselves, and we keep finding ways to innovate, or keep finding ways to actually not need that rare earth element or whatever it is now, if the earth warms too much from human related activity, can we cool it off again? And how much of a problem is this? I am not sure, and that goes beyond the scope of our show. But the broader point here is that history shows us that humans keep figuring things out, and that is somewhat of an answer to those questions. The world is not overpopulated, it is unevenly populated. Some regions are young, others are growing, others are capital constrained, and then other regions are aging, shrinking and capital rich. And that very imbalance right there is what fuels migration and fuels labor flows and fuels housing demand in destination countries and the US benefits from this imbalance. Unlike almost anywhere else in the world, it's a demographic magnet. Yes, you do have some smaller ones out there, like Dubai, for example.

Keith Weinhold 28:04

But why? Why do we keep attracting immigrants? Well, we've got strong labor markets, capital availability, property rights, economic mobility, and US has existing housing stock. Countries today don't just compete for capital, they're competing for people. In the US keeps attracting working age adults, and that is exactly the demographic that creates housing demand, and this is why long term housing demand in the US is more resilient than a lot of people think. In fact, the US population of about 350 million. This year, it's projected to peak at about 370 million, near 2080 and of course, the big factor that makes that pivot is that level of immigration. So that's why the population projections vary now. The last presidential administration allowed for a lot of immigrants. The current one few immigrants, and the next one, nobody knows. You've got a group called the falconist party that calls for increased legal immigration into the US. Yeah, they want to allow more migrants into the country, but yet they want to enforce illegal immigration. That sounds just like it's spelled, F, A, L, C, O, N, i, s, t, the falconist Party, but the us's magnetic effect to keep driving population growth through immigration is key, because you might already know that 2.1 is the magic number you need a fertility rate of at least 2.1 to maintain a population fertility rate that is the average number of children that a woman is expected to have over her lifetime. And be sure you don't confuse these numbers with the earlier numbers of people per. Per household, like I discussed earlier, although higher fertility rates are usually going to lead to more people per household, India's fertility rate is already down to 2.0 Yes, it is the most populated nation in the world, but since women, on average, only have two children, India is already below replacement fertility. The US and Australia are each at 1.6 Japan is just 1.2 China's is down to 1.0 South Korea's is at an incredibly low seven tenths of one, so 0.7 in South Korea, and then Nigeria's is still more than four. So among all those that I mentioned, only Nigeria is above the replacement rate of 2.1 and most of the nations above that rate are in Africa. Israel is a big outlier at 2.9 you've got others in the Middle East and South Asia that are above replacement rate as well. And when I say things like it's still up there, that whole still thing refers to the fact that there is this tendency worldwide for society to urbanize and have fewer children. For those fertility rates to keep falling. And that's why the future population growth is about which nations attract immigrants, and that is the US. Is huge advantage. Now there's a great way to look at where future births are going to come from. A way to do this is consider your chance of being born on each continent in the year 2100 This is interesting. In the year 2100 a person has a 48% chance of being born in Africa, 38% in South Asia, in the Middle East, 5% South America, 5% in Europe or Russia, 4% in North America, and less than 1% in Australia. Those are the chances of you being born on each of those continents in the year 2100 and that sourced by the UN.

Keith Weinhold 32:09

the world population is, as I said earlier, about 8.2 billion, and it's actually expected to peak around the same time that the US population is in the 2080s and that'll be near 10 point 3 billion. All right, so both the world and the US population should rise for another 50 to 60 years. Let's talk about population winners and losers inside the US. I mean, this is where population conversations really become useful for investors, because population doesn't matter nationally that much. It really matters locally, unevenly and sometimes it almost feels unfairly. So let me give you some perspective shifting stats. I think I shared with you when I discussed new New York City Mayor Zoran Manami here on the show a month or two ago, that the New York City Metro Area has over 20 million people, nearly double the combined population of Arizona and Nevada together, yes, just one metro area, the same as Two entire sparsely populated states. So when someone says people are leaving New York I mean that tells you almost nothing, unless you know where they're going. How many are still arriving in New York City to replace those leaving, and how many households are still forming inside that Metro? The household formation so scale matters, however, net, people are not leaving New York. New York City recently had more in migration than any other US Metro. Some states are practically empty. Alaska or take Wyoming. Wyoming has fewer than 600,000 people in the entire state. That's fewer people than a lot of single US cities. That's only about six people per square mile. In Wyoming, that's about the population of one midsize Metro suburb. Now, when someone says the US has plenty of land in a lot of cases, they're right. I mean, just look out the window when you fly over Wyoming or the Dakotas. But people don't really live where land is cheap. They actually don't want to. Most of the time. They live where jobs, incomes and their networks already exist. You know, the wealthy guy that retires to Wyoming and it has a 200 acre ranch is an outlier. There's a reason he can sprawl out and make it 200 acres. There's virtually nobody there. Let's understand too that population loss, that doesn't mean that demand is gone, but it does change the rules, especially when you think about a place like West Virginia. They have lost population in most decades since the 1950s and incredibly, their population is lower today than it was in 1930 we're talking about West Virginia statewide. They have an aging population. West Virginia has an outmigration of young adults. So this doesn't mean that no real estate works in West Virginia, but it means that appreciation stories are fragile. Income matters more than equity. Growth and demographics are a headwind, not a tailwind. That's a very different investment posture than where you usually want to be. It's important to understand that a handful of metros, just a handful, are absorbing massive national growth. And here's something that a lot of investors underestimate. About half of all US, population growth flows into fewer than 15 metro areas, and it's not just New York City, Houston, Miami, but smaller places like Jacksonville, Austin and Raleigh, and that really helps pump their real estate market. So that means demand concentrates, housing pressure intensifies, and rent growth becomes pretty sticky, unless you wildly overbuild for a short period of time like Austin did, and this is why some metros just feel perpetually tight over the long term, and others feel permanently sluggish. Population does not spread evenly. It piles up. In fact, Texas is a great case in point here. Understand that Texas is adding people faster than some entire nations do. Texas alone adds hundreds of 1000s of residents per year in strong cycles. Some years, they do add more people than entire small countries, more than several Midwest states combined. And of course, they don't spread evenly across Texas. They cluster in DFW, Houston, Austin and San Antonio, so pretty much the Texas triangle, and that clustering fact is everything for housing demand, yet at the same time, there are fully 75 Texas counties that are losing population, typically out in West Texas. Then there's Florida. Florida isn't just growing. It's replacing people. Florida's growth. It's not just net positive, it's replacement migration, and it's across all different types and ages. You've got retirees arriving, you've got young workers arriving, you've got young households forming, and you've got seniors aging in place. So this way, among a whole spectrum of ages, you've got demand for rentals, workforce housing, age specific, housing and multifamily all in Florida, and this is why Florida housing demand over the long term is not going to cool off the way that a few skeptics expect. Now, of course, some areas did temporarily overbuild in Florida in the years following the pandemic. Yes, that's led to some temporary Florida home price attrition, but that is going to be absorbed. California did not empty out. It reshuffled now. There were some recent years where California lost net population, but here's what that hides. Some metros lost residents. Others stayed flat. You had some income brackets that left California and others arrived. In fact, California has slight population growth today overall, so housing demand definitely did not vanish. It shifted within the state and then outward to nearby states, and that's how Arizona, Nevada and Texas benefited. But overall, California's population count, really, it's just pretty steady, not declining.

Keith Weinhold 39:05

population density. It's that density that predicts rent pressure better than growth rates. Do something really important for real estate investors. Dense metros absorb shocks better. They have less elastic housing supply, and they see faster rent rebounds. Sparse areas have cheaper land and easier supply expansion and weaker rent resilience. So that's why rents snap back faster in dense metros, and oversupply hurts more in spread out to regions. Density matters more than raw growth does. Shrinking states can still have tight housing I mean, some states lose population overall, but yet they still have housing shortages in certain metros, and you'll have tight rental markets near job centers, and you've got strong demand In limited sub markets, even if the state is shrinking. And I think you know this is why the slower growing Northeast and Midwest, they've had the highest home price appreciation in the past two years. There's not enough building there. If your population falls 1% but the available housing falls 2% well, you can totally get into a housing shortage situation, and that bids up real estate prices. And when people look at population charts on the state level, a lot of times, they still get misled. When you buy an investment property, you don't buy a state, you buy a specific market within it, so the United States is not full it is lopsided. The US is not overpopulated. It is heavily clustered. It's unevenly dense, and it's really driven by migration. And perhaps a better way to say it is that the US population is really opportunity concentrated housing demand follows jobs, networks, wages and migration flows. It sure does not follow empty land. And really the investor takeaway is, is that when you hear population stats, don't put too much weight on the question, is the population rising or falling? Although that's something you certainly want to know. Some better questions to ask are, where are households forming? Where are adults moving? Where is supply constrained? And where does income support, rent like those are, what four big questions there, because population alone does not create housing demand. It's households under constraint that do so. Our big arching overall question is the world overpopulated or underpopulated? The answer is neither. The world is unevenly populated. It's unevenly aged, and it's unevenly governed. And for real estate investors, the lesson is simple. You don't invest in population counts, you invest in household formation, age structure, migration and supply constraints. Really, that's a big learning summary for you, that's why housing demand can stay strong even when population growth slows. And once you understand that demographic headlines that seem scary aren't as scary, and they start to be more useful. Why I've wanted to do this overpopulated versus underpopulated episode for you for years. I've really thought about it for years. I really hope that you got something useful out of it. Let's be mindful of the context too. When it comes to the classic Adam Smith economics of supply demand, I've only discussed one side today, largely just the demand side and not the supply side so much that would involve a discussion about building and some more things that supply side. Now that I've helped you ask a better question about population and the future of housing demand, you might wonder where you can get better answers. Well, like I mentioned earlier, I provide a lot of that and help you make sense of it, both right here on this show and with my newsletter, geography is something that's more conducive and meaningful to you visually, that's often done with a map, and that's why my letter at greletter.com will help you more if you enjoy learning through maps, just like we've done every year since 2014 I've got 52 great episodes coming to you this year. If you haven't consider subscribing to the show until next week, I'm your host. Keith Weinhold, don't quit your Daydream.

Speaker 2 43:57

Nothing on this show should be considered specific, personal or professional advice, please consult an appropriate tax, legal, real estate, financial or business professional for individualized advice. Opinions of guests are their own. Information is not guaranteed. All investment strategies have the potential for profit or loss. The host is operating on behalf of get rich Education LLC, exclusively you

Keith Weinhold 44:25

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Mon, 19 January 2026

Keith Weinhold breaks down how recent presidential housing policies could influence real estate investors and everyday homebuyers.

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588: If Property Taxes Go Away, What Replaces Them?

Complete episode transcript:

Keith Weinhold 0:01

Keith, welcome to GRE. I'm your host. Keith Weinhold, the presidential administration has made some weighty decisions that could affect the real estate market for years. Then when it's time for you to sell your investment property, there are some smart ways to do it and some big mistakes to avoid. We're talking about four options for your real estate exit strategy, including the little discussed 721 exchange today on get rich education.

Keith Weinhold 0:32

Since 2014 the powerful get rich education podcast has created more passive income for people than nearly any other show in the world. This show teaches you how to earn strong returns from passive real estate investing in the best markets without losing your time being a flipper or landlord. Show Host Keith Weinhold writes for both Forbes and Rich Dad advisors and delivers a new show every week since 2014 there's been millions of listener downloads of 188 world nations. He has a list show guests and key top selling personal finance author Robert Kiyosaki, get rich education can be heard on every podcast platform, plus it has its own dedicated Apple and Android listener phone apps build wealth on the go with the get rich education podcast. Sign up now for the get rich education podcast, or visit get rich education.com

Russell Gray 1:18

You're listening to the show that has created more financial freedom than nearly any show in the world. This is get rich education.

Keith Weinhold 1:28

Welcome to GRE you're inside one of America's longest running and most listened to shows on real estate investing. This is Get Rich Education. I'm your host. Keith Weinhold, if you're working for the weekend, then you had better examine your Monday to Friday and start investing for leverage in income that's generated today. The good news is that down the road, when it comes time for you to sell your investment property, hopefully, after decades of handsome profits, even if that is years away, there are a lot of good options for you, including multiple ones that are tax deferred and effectively tax free. I'll discuss that later today, what we know, and what history has proven, is that savers lose wealth, stock investors maintain wealth, real estate investors build wealth. And I contend that within the discipline of real estate, being the investor is the best job of all of them, because, look, realtors rarely build wealth. Property managers that don't actually own the real estate, they also rarely build wealth. And the people on your maintenance team, they don't build wealth either. Now, as much as we might appreciate all these service professionals, I mean, I sure do this is not meant to disparage them. I'm trying to help you pick the right lane in real estate. Know that you're doing the right thing. Do the right thing before you do things right. By their own admission, the National Association of Realtors, the NAR they will tell you that the median gross income for a realtor is. Do you want to guess? Any guess as to what the median gross income for a realtor is? It is $58,100. that's it.

Keith Weinhold 3:37

And realize that's the figure being reported by the trade organization that represents the industry too licensed sales agents. Median income that's even lower. It is $41,700 also per the NAR I see myself realtors that have been in business 20 years, 30 years, 40 years, and all that time, they have never bought a single investment property for themselves. Instead, a lot of them spend their entire career helping other people get rich while they never get on the treadmill. But do you know what is even crazier to me, crazier than that, it's the number of people that manage properties, including some of my own property managers that I hire, and they don't own any investment real estate themselves. And I think that's crazy, because managers are doing what is one of the toughest jobs in real estate, always having to walk that tightrope, arbitrating between the property owner and the tenant, and as a result, often pleasing nobody. They're sort of like the football referee, the baseball umpire, the property manager they have to deal with The problem tenant. The manager has to bug the tenant to collect the late rent, and then your maintenance people. You know, I just met up with a contractor that's putting new flooring in one of my rentals. He's got a sense of humor, and he wore this great t shirt that says, I'm here because you broke it. I love that. But now his compensation isn't too shabby, but he's trading his time for dollars, and the income stops when his work stops. The lesson is, be the asset owner.

Keith Weinhold 5:35

Now this presidential administration has shaken up a lot of policies, good or bad we've got a bunch of new directives centered on the housing market. And really, this shouldn't come as any sort of surprise, since be mindful, the current White House occupant is a long time New York City Real Estate Investor, some of the more recent weighty moves that can affect you are banning institutional investors from buying single family homes that they turn into rentals, and the other one is a $200 billion bond purchase program aimed at reducing mortgage rates. Okay, whether those two things happen or not, it's good to look at their effect, how they move a real estate market, because when you understand the effects, then you learn a lesson, even if you're listening to this episode 10 years from now, the move to ban institutional investors. We're talking about conglomerate groups like Blackstone and invitation homes. The move to ban them from buying single family rentals is to try to reduce the demand and therefore, hopefully lower the price of single family homes in order to help affordability. Okay, that could work in concept. But here's the other thing that it does, there would be fewer rentals available on the market, because most institutional investors do buy those build to rent properties, that's what they're looking to acquire. So it's sort of what most any real estate investor would want. They would get higher rents and maybe some somewhat lower purchase prices, or at least a lower appreciation rate. But this whole move to ban institutional investors, that is mostly a nothing burger, that's all we're talking about here. And here's why you cannot undo the institutional purchases that were already made, and a lot of those got made, a lot of them during the pandemic. So it would only be banning new purchases. And another important point to consider here is how small this market is. I think these institutional buyers make a whole lot of outsized noise and often get pointed to as the boogeyman for running up prices of real estate. But that's not true. Only about two to 3% of single family rentals are owned by these giant investors, at least the ones that have over 1000 units. Okay, so this all sounds good as a political platitude. You trying to do something about it? I sort of understand that, but this ban, it just would not move the market very much at all now, perhaps a slight move could be triggered in cities that do have a lot of institutional ownership, like Atlanta, Jacksonville, Charlotte, but really little effect. The second directive from the President is having Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac buy $200 billion worth of mortgage bonds. This is really an effort to drive down mortgage rates and bring down monthly payments and make the cost of home ownership more affordable. The translation here for you is that whenever you inject money into something, money tends to flow more freely and rates get lower, kind of lowering the dam wall height, like I have given to you in other examples, when you buy bonds that demand pushes up bond prices, which lowers bond yields. And mortgage rates are tied to those lowered bond yields. And as soon as this was announced, like the very next day, mortgage rates fell into the high fives, yes, under 6% for the first time in three years. But the last thing effect of this that's been studied, and it's been shown to reduce mortgage rates by about three tenths of 1% so not nothing, but sort of small. However, if they're buying down rates like this one time, well then they might do it multiple times. So there you go. There are two recent directives from the president banning institutional investors from buying single family homes and buying mortgage bonds to lower mortgage rates.

Keith Weinhold 10:00

Either one of them with seismic effects. It's sort of like the 50 year mortgage proposal that the administration made a while ago, and that's probably not going to become a reality anytime soon, if ever. Here's a question that I have for you, and I'll let you answer. Do you like free markets, or would you rather have big government? Well, each of these directives are more government intervention into the free market, whether you like that or not. Another way to say it is that stuff like this makes a lot of splashy headlines, but it's not a bigger deal than a Philadelphia Eagles football game,at least. You know how these forces can move markets now

Keith Weinhold 10:46

straight ahead, it's the concise, definitive audio guide to selling your investment property. I'm going to detail four different ways that you can do it in this guide, including tax deferred and effectively, tax free methods. When you're able to defer taxes over and over again throughout your entire life, they effectively become tax free. You never have any tax obligation. Also, I will discuss one way of selling your property that you're probably not familiar with and you might have never heard about before in your life. I'm Keith Weinhold. You're listening to Episode 589 of get rich education.

Keith Weinhold 11:27

You know, most people think they're playing it safe with their liquid money, but they're actually losing savings accounts and bonds don't keep up when true inflation eats six or 7% of your wealth every single year, I invest my liquidity with FFI freedom family investments in their flagship program. Why fixed 10 to 12% returns have been predictable and paid quarterly. There's real world security backed by needs based real estate like affordable housing, Senior Living and health care. Ask about the freedom flagship program when you speak to a freedom coach there, and that's just one part of their family of products, they've got workshops, webinars and seminars designed to educate you before you invest. Start with as little as 25k and finally, get your money working as hard as you do. Get started at Freedom family investments.com/gre. Or or send a text now it's 1-937-795-8989, yep, text their freedom coach, directly. Again. 1-937-795-8989,

Keith Weinhold 12:39

the same place where I get my own mortgage loans is where you can get yours. Ridge lending group and MLS, 42056, they provided our listeners with more loans than anyone because they specialize in income properties. They help you build a long term plan for growing your real estate empire with leverage, start your pre qual and even chat with President chailey Ridge personally, while it's on your mind, start at Ridge lending group.com that's Ridge lending group.com

Russell Gray 13:12

Hi. This is Russell Gray, Main Street capitalist. You're listening to the get rich education show with Keith weinholden. Remember, don't quit your Daydream.

Keith Weinhold 13:20

You welcome back to get rich Education. I'm your host, Keith Weinhold, and I'm coming to you from Colorado Springs today, where I'm attending the real estate guys create your future goals retreat event, yeah, a goals event allows one to get introspective. One part of it is learning how I can serve you better on this show. Every week, since I do pour a lot of thought into what I share with you here. How much yeah, just, how much did this event mean to me? Well, my team is in the NFL playoffs, and I was willing to miss some playoff football for this.

Speaker 1 14:07

That's inexcusable, inexcusable. Playoffs. Don't talk about playoffs. You kidding me? Playoffs? I just hope we can win a game.

Keith Weinhold 14:19

Yeah, yeah. That is, that is, of course, the classic rant from a former NFL coach, Jim Mora. Maybe Jim needs to attend the goals retreat to put things into perspective here. now, whether it's just a few years from now or it's decades into your future, at some point we're all going to exit the real estate investing game, even if that's not until the day we die. I'll talk about that with whatever endeavor you're in. It is good to begin with. The end In mind. there's a good chance that you're either in real estate acquisition mode now, or you once were. Or where you're going to be in that real estate acquisition mode in the future, but after this accumulation phase of your life, hopefully, which you've turned into financial freedom through real estate, after that, you're going to be in the mode where, since you've already made it, you're going to want to just maintain the portfolio that you have or stop acquiring or you will want to sell eventually. The good news is that there are a lot of good options for selling your property and doing it, tax deferred and effectively tax free. Now I will not talk about selling your primary residence so much, though, this is focused on exiting from your investment property, primary residence sales rules with the IRS is that your first 250k of gain is exempt from capital gains tax if you're single, and your first 500k is shielded from tax if you're married. Quite a marriage incentive there.

Keith Weinhold 15:59

But as we focus on investment properties. This is influenced by a question from one of our older GRE listeners, 62 year old, Mark, who wrote in last year, was such a good question and I answered his question on air last month. I'll basically expand on that answer today. Mark said he has listened to every GRE episode ever, and therefore, congratulations, he made it. He reached financial freedom, and he's got a sizable portfolio. Some of his properties are paid off. Others are leveraged. But see, Mark is hesitant to buy more property because he's already made it his wife doesn't want more properties because she associates it with him having to do more work. Now, when you're still in pursuit of financial freedom, well, you don't mind investing a small slice of your time each month into real estate, a little light management, remotely, maybe, but once your residual income exceeds all of your expenses, well, then at that point, your time is going to start to become more valuable. So let's look at four here, four solid options for exiting your property, and then I'm going to examine the pros and cons of each one. The first of four is simply to sell real estate in the conventional way, just a plain sale to a buyer, where you see that it gets fixed up and you list it and you sell it outright. Well, the pros of this are is that it gets you to your exit, and it also turns your equity into cash. The cons, the downside of doing it this way is that you're going to give up your ongoing stream of income. Your Cash Flow is going to be gone. You might have to remove tenants, depending on your scenario. You have to fix up and stage the home to prepare it for the market. That could be as little as 5k or as much as 50k or more, depending on the size of your real estate, you're going to have to pay a real estate agent a commission of 3% or more and pay capital gains tax of 15% or more. That's one five. And you'll also have to pay depreciation recapture, and of course, you don't have to pay 15% of the total asset value. It's just 15% of the value gain during the time that you held this property, right? So the tax and fix up cost can eat into your profit with this first of four ways to sell your property, although you are still probably in for a pretty nice windfall upon the sale if you've held it for a while. All right, so the first way is a plain sail, and a lot of people would agree that is not the best way to do it. Okay, it gets far better from here. The second sale option that you have is something that a lot of real estate investors like us are familiar with, or have at least heard of, and the general public has not, and that is the 1031 exchange. You'll also hear it be called the 1031 tax deferred Exchange, or the 1031 like kind exchange, because you trade your property up for another property that's kind of like it. It is a hugely powerful wealth building and wealth preservation tool, okay, section 1031, of the IRS tax code that allows an investor to exit a property without incurring any capital gains taxes. That also does not trigger depreciation recapture when you sell your property, but in order for you to get those tax deferred benefits. Importantly, you have to roll your game into another piece of real estate. Now there are a lot of rules and nuances around 1031 ones. I have done multiple 1030 ones in my life, and they are so worth doing and amplifying your wealth, building power I will not cover all the rules and nuances those things like the three properties rule and the 200% rule, and that rule about how you need to identify your replacement property within 45 days and close on it within 180 days, and all of that. Because what I've done is I've completely broken that down on the show with you here previously, and as always, I explained it in the most clear, incoherent way that I could for you. I best did that on episode 143 of get rich education. The name of that episode is your 1031 exchange guide, tax deferral for life. Now, there do get to be some numbers flying around here, so you want to listen closely, you might find yourself skipping back for simple example purposes, in a 1031assume that you bought a $200,000 duplex 20 years ago, and it's now worth 500k you depreciated the value of the duplex every year, as is actually required by the IRS, assuming you took a total of 100k of depreciation over the life of your ownership of it, and you did not make any improvements to it. The basis of your property is then 100k because it's your 200k purchase price, minus 100k in total depreciation write offs. When you sell the property for 500k you now have a gain of 500k minus 100k which is 400k depreciation, recapture and capital gains are not taxed at the same rate, and it depends on some things, but let's assume that your blended tax rate is 20% that means you would owe 20% on your 400k so that would be 80k in taxes if you just did the plain sale. But not many people want to stroke a check to the IRS for 80k so instead, if you take your 400k of gain and roll it into a new property, or properties, you can defer your obligation to pay this 80k. Yes, you do not owe the IRS a thing. Now this is beautiful. You get that tax break virtually nowhere else in the investing world, okay, so what you've now done is that you have exited the property a duplex, in this case, via 1031 exchange, and you've traded it up for another property. So you're still a real estate investor. You have not exited being one of those, but you sold the duplex and replaced it with another property, or properties, all right, that was the second of four sale options, the 1031, exchange, and, yeah, as you can see, there do get to be some numbers flying around, some deep dive learning for you here. And that's why I lightened it up with the Jim Mora clip before we dove in.

Keith Weinhold 22:54

The third way is called refi for life. Now we could almost put an asterisk on this third way, because with a refi for life, it's not a sale of the property at all. What it is is it's really a way for you to sell your equity to a bank yet still retain the property. Therefore, you access capital without triggering any taxes. You get a nice, big windfall payout while you still hold the asset, and it keeps paying you up to five ways at the same time. Yeah, you will also hear this refi for life strategy referred to as other things. Refi till you die, is one way to put it, as equity accumulates, say, every five or 10 years, you just do another cash out refi, enjoy the tax free windfall and keep holding on to the asset that is the same thing. Other names for this repeated series of cash out refis throughout your life that you might hear, which I'm calling refi for life. Those other names are live on leverage, the equity to income strategy, the infinite hold, the generational hold strategy, hold until step up, or you might hear, buy, borrow, never sell. They all mean the same thing. I'm calling it refi for life. Let me give you a simple refi for life. Example, using conservative assumptions, say that today you put a total of 200k down to control $1 million worth of rental property. Your initial loan balance is 800k we'll just say your cash flow is zero. Your property is appreciated 6% per year. After 10 years, your million dollars of property, growing at 6% annually, is worth almost $1.8 million if you refinance a 75% loan to value your new loan, amount is 1.3 5 million you pay off the original 800k loan, that leaves you with raw. 550k of cash out refinance proceeds. Congratulations, you got a windfall, and your 550k is tax, free loan money to you not income, because the IRS says debt is not income, therefore it's not taxed. Yes, and you heard that right. You can do whatever you want with those funds. What you've now done is you pulled out more than two and a half times your original 200k investment. And yes, while you still own the property, you continue to hold this appreciating asset. Tenants keep paying down your debt over time, and inflation keeps working in your favor, all right, and remember, that's only what you did at the 10 year mark. You are not done. It just keeps getting better. Fast forward five more years to the 15 year mark, at 6% appreciation continuing your original Million Dollar Portfolio is now worth about $2.4 million at 75% loan to value that property supports total debt of roughly $1.8 million at this point, your existing loan balance from the prior refinance, it's still that 1.3 5 million so you pay it off with a new loan. This allows you to extract an additional 450k of tax free cash. So add it up. This means at the 10 year mark, you got 550k and then here, at the 15 year mark, you got another 450k across your two refinances combined, you have now pull out a cool million dollars in tax free loan proceeds. That's nearly $1 million of liquid, usable capital from an original 200k investment that you made 15 years ago, without you ever selling the property. You still own. What's worth now $2.4 million worth of property, you've got the million liquid and you still have not triggered any tax at all. So at this stage, you can just live off your million dollars of refinance proceeds, or you can choose to reinvest it into new assets. Or you can selectively pay down your debt to increase your cash flow, or you can simply hold and let inflation continue shrinking the real value of your loans, and let inflation continue to make your properties go up in price, then down the road when you eventually die, your heirs receive a step up in basis largely eliminating capital gains tax. That is just amazing. That is refi for life in plain English. So that is the third of four exit strategies that I'm sharing with you here today. And understand there are a few caveats here. I only went to the 15 year mark, you can keep doing it every five years. Beyond that, it just keeps getting better as leverage compounds the value of what you own. Now I kept it simple for learning purposes in an audio format with you here, you're probably going to have even more equity than those numbers I gave you because I didn't even include the principal pay down that your tenants make for you.

Keith Weinhold 28:26

And let's discuss a few more pros and cons of this refi for life plan. The pros are that you've borrowed, and you've done that with perhaps a home equity line of credit, home equity loan or a second mortgage, you borrowed against the property in perpetuity and get tax free cash. Interest paid on the amount borrowed is tax deductible too. If you don't have enough tax advantages, there's also that you've got zero property sale, transaction friction or risk, you pass along the value of your home or portfolio to heirs on a stepped up basis. What that means, in essence, is when you pass away your depreciation recapture and your capital gains are wiped out, that's what a stepped up basis means. Okay, those were the pros, the cons, the downsides of doing this, and there aren't very many, but it's that it does not get you out of property ownership while you're still alive. If that's what you're looking for, your property cash flow gets reduced when you do a refi because you have a new debt service obligation. However, you've also got incremental rent increases throughout time that could offset that. And the other thing is, think about your heirs. Sometimes heirs find it challenging to divide homes among themselves, so your heirs need to be pretty well educated on related real estate and tax principles. So those are the cons of refi for Life. We're talking about four distinct access strategies for your investment real estate today on get rich education podcast episode 589 I'm your host, Keith Weinhold

Keith Weinhold 30:09

and the fourth way, the least understood and least utilized way, is known as the 721 exchange. And I want to thank a different GRE listener named Nate in California in his acquire to retire blog. It's worth checking out. I want to thank Nate for his contribution here. Nate heard the GRE episode last year about 62 year old. Listener Mark's desire to sell, and that's what got Nate to write in about the 721 exchange, yes, just like the 1031 exchange is named for that particular section of the IRS tax code, it's just the same with the 721 and of all four methods we're discussing today, it's the only one of the four that I have not done myself. So I have studied it how the 721 exchange works is that say you have a case where you're a rental property owner and you realize that you just don't want the hassles of landlording, but you like the financial benefit that the ownership gives you. What you can do is sell your home to a partnership and receive shares in that partnership. The 721 exchange rules stipulate that this is not a taxable event, and therefore no capital gains tax or depreciation recapture are due. Now that you're an owner in the partnership, you still get the benefits of owning the property, like appreciation and cash flow and such, and you get these benefits across a greater number of properties in markets diversification, because you are a fractional owner in the other properties that are in the partnership, not only your own. And when you eventually pass away, your shares are stepped up in basis and can be distributed equally to heirs. And see it is surely easier to divide shares among, say, four children than it is to divide your 31 rental houses among four children, because your four children are all going to have different goals and varying degrees of financial savvy. So the 721 exchange really is a great estate planning tool as well. So you will have this partnership that makes an offer to buy your property. Section 721, of the IRS Code allows a property owner to contribute real estate to a partnership in exchange for partnership units. And of course, you are going to need to learn how to vet the partnership. Now let's look at some of the pros and cons of this. The upside the pros are that it gets you out of being a direct property owner, if that's just something down the road that you don't want to do anymore. No more repair requests or HOAs, property tax bills, insurance bills, vacancies or property improvements. And of course, the hedge against that, I favor using a property manager to take care of that for me, but that is a different topic. But in any case, you also defer paying capital gains tax and depreciation recapture by rolling your equity into a qualified real estate fund. Some more upsides of the 721 are that you get shares in the real estate fund that offers you continued cash flow and possible appreciation. There's often no need for you to pay to fix up or stage the property for sale, no agent commissions to pay. You diversify your risk across multiple markets and properties you get to contribute to, and you sort of become part of a like minded community of real estate investors, and you peripherally stay attached to your real estate, even though you're no longer the direct owner of it. Now, of course, being a direct owner of real estate is where you get both the profits and the control, but again, after a decade, or even 50 Years of direct ownership, you're just choosing to be done with that phase. So the 721 is a permanent solution. There's no sort of next decision, stress or risk. It is done. It is solved. But like I said, the shares are easy to divide among heirs compared to a portfolio of homes. All right, how about the cons the negative of a 721 exchange? Well, you're going to forfeit the ability to borrow against your asset, the refi for life plan that I talked about in the third way you can sell your property. Also you're going to have to pay some onboarding fees or some management fees to the partnership, and you're going to lose future 1031 exchange availability. And that is it. That is the 721 exchange. Again, I want to thank GRE listener, Nate from California, for reaching out to the show, and he's got a great blog. That's what got me to study the 721 exchange some more. This can happen with an up rate. You've probably heard of a REIT before, really.

Keith Weinhold 35:00

Estate Investment Trust and upreet, up r, e, i, t, that is in umbrella partnership. REIT, as investors, we acquire and hold real estate for the long term because it provides those real estate pays five ways, benefits of appreciation, cash flow, ROA, tax benefits and inflation profiting. But as you begin with the end in mind, it's going to be aware of your options so that you can optimize that inevitable exit of yours down the row. To summarize what you've learned so far on this segment of the show is that there are four viable exit strategies for real estate investors, the straight sale, the 1031, tax deferred exchange, refi for life, which isn't a sale at all. It's a series of cash out refis, and finally, the 721 exchange, where you sell to a partnership, all with their various pros and cons. So some really good options for you. You can look up Ridge lending group, if you want to do a cash out refi on your investment property, they're very well versed in how to do those things. That was the third strategy, the refi for life. What do I personally recommend that you do? Well, I don't know your situation, but I can just tell you what I do myself, and that is generally, if I like a property, I keep doing the refi for life thing, continued cash out refinances, and I just keep holding onto the property and enjoying that tax free cash. That's if I like a property. If I don't like a property, I will be more likely to 1031 exchange it up into something larger, and when I'm older and done being a direct real estate investor, that's time. I'll probably take a close look at a 721, exchange and see if it's right for me at that time. How can you learn more about these four exit strategies and what professional parties might you want to use to help facilitate it? Well, it is the same place that you get free coaching from us, and it's also the same place where you find just the right next investment property so that you're going to have something to sell in future decades. That is it gre investmentcoach.com that's free consultation with our coaches at greinvestmentcoach.com

Keith Weinhold 37:19

I'm Keith Weinhold, thanks for being here, but you weren't here for me. You were here for you. Don't quit your Daydream.

Speaker 1 37:29

Keith Weinhold 37:57

The preceding program was brought to you by your home for wealth building, get richeducation.com you.

Direct download: GREepisode589_.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 4:00am EST

Mon, 12 January 2026

Keith explores two big themes shaping real estate investors’ futures:

Why more Americans are becoming “forever renters”—and how long-term lifestyle and demographic shifts (not just today’s prices and rates) are quietly reshaping the demand for rentals.

The growing conversation around eliminating property taxes—which states are making the most noise, and why the real issue isn’t whether property taxes go away, but what would realistically replace them.

Keith also zooms out for a quick year-end tour of major asset classes—from stocks and real estate to metals and crypto—so listeners can see where real estate fits in the broader investing landscape and what these shifts might mean for their wealth-building strategy.

Episode Page:

GetRichEducation.com/588

For access to properties or free help with a

GRE Investment Coach, start here:

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Get mortgage loans for investment property:

RidgeLendingGroup.com or call 855-74-RIDGE

or e-mail: info@RidgeLendingGroup.com

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For predictable 10-12% quarterly returns, visit FreedomFamilyInvestments.com/GRE or text 1-937-795-8989 to speak with a freedom coach

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587: Play to Win: Stop Waiting for “Perfect Conditions”

Complete episode transcript:

Keith Weinhold 0:01

Welcome to GRE. I'm your host. Keith Weinhold, the Forever renter trend keeps getting embedded deeper into American culture. What's behind it? It's more than just finances. Then there's been more talk about eliminating property taxes, if they go away, what replaces them? And we'll discuss more today on get rich education.

Keith Weinhold 0:27

Corey Coates 1:12

You're listening to the show that has created more financial freedom than nearly any show in the world. This is get rich education.

Keith Weinhold 1:28

Welcome to GRE from Jamestown, New York to Jamestown, North Dakota and across 108 nations worldwide. I'm Keith Weinhold, and this is get rich education. Most investments reduce your income until you can start drawing on it and paying taxes on it in your 60s. That's a lot of decades of living below your means. Here learn how to grow your means and invest in vehicles that pay you when you're young enough to enjoy it and pay you five ways tax advantaged. Hey, there's a big misunderstanding about the housing market taking place right now. Yes, today's higher cost of home ownership contributes to Americans renting longer, for sure, but let's not make the mistake of thinking this is a new phenomenon just because home prices moved higher or mortgage rates began normalizing again a few years ago, that's not what it's about Americans renting longer. That is a trend decades in the making, and it has had and will continue to have major implications on the rental housing market decades into the future, buying your first home at 25 that was your grandparents or maybe your parents. Today, it kind of goes like this in life's journey for the wannabe homeowner, First comes the gray hair, then comes the mortgage. Last year, we learned that the average first time homebuyer age in America has moved up to 40. Back in 1981 it was age 29 per the NAR. More specifically one's real estate journey, it basically now goes like this, rent, rent, rent, have roommates again, go back to renting, chiropractor, Bank of mom and dad, then a mortgage maybe.

Keith Weinhold 3:34

Yeah, the home ownership rate, it keeps falling among every age group, most sharply among 30 somethings. The translation here is that more renters are coming. For those in their 30s, the home ownership rate maxed out at 69% in 1980 it's fallen to just 47% today. Those that are older, for those in their 40s, the homeownership rate maxed out at 78% in 1982 it has fallen to just 62% today and so on. Every 10 year age group all the way to those age 80 plus, the homeownership rate has fallen for all of them over the decades too, every single age cohort. The home ownership rate has fallen over the decades, and that is all per the Census Bureau. I'll tell you why this forever renter trend just keeps strengthening in a moment. But if you don't own your home, here are your current housing options. You can live with your parents. Yes, welcome back childhood bedroom with those glow in the dark stars on the ceiling. Sadly, you can be homeless. That is really not good. Or the other option is you can rent something nice, new, modern, and energy eficient. The group in which home ownership has fallen the most are those 30 somethings. 20 somethings aren't even part of what the Census Bureau reported here. It fell most sharply in the 1980s and then again, after the great recession. And here's what I know you might be thinking because we have some of the smartest listeners around. I bet that during times that buying was cheaper than renting, the trend reversed. That's what you might be thinking. No, it didn't. Regardless of what is cheaper, over time, the home ownership rate just keeps falling despite those periods, whatever is cheaper renting or owning now the overall home ownership rate that's fallen just since 2023 from 66% down to 65% that might not sound like much, but a Full 1% drop there means 1.3 million new renters already, just since 2023 and now you might be thinking, well, this is like totally because home prices and mortgage rates have been higher since that time. They've been higher since 2023 you are, in fact, somewhat correct about the affordability on a median priced home today, which is around 420k, I mean a 10% down payment and closing costs, that means you're out of pocket, probably more than 50k and it's 100k plus for a 20% down payment. And this is often an insurmountable hurdle without financial help from the Bank of mom and dad. But this is all part of a longer, multi decade set of trends. And look, a lot of these trends don't have much of anything to do with finances. People are renting longer because Americans wait longer to marry and have kids, and this has persisted, whether economic cycles are good or bad, and certainly, regardless of what mortgage rate levels are, younger generations value flexibility. That's another reason people are renting longer. Also 30 somethings are just simply more comfortable with subscription models like renting. I mean, look at Netflix and Uber and Spotify. It's been decades since anyone actually bought DVDs or CDs. Yeah, renting is just sort of another subscription model. More. Boomers are also renting for convenience. They would rather play pickleball instead of mow a lawn. This is something that they figured out a while ago. Also higher consumer and educational debt keeps people renting. You've got buy now, pay later. Companies like Klarna that are booming and mortgage eligibility got sucked from souls when all this happened? Hey, I've got more a ton of reasons for why more and more people are renters today, and how this trend is your friend if you are a rental property investor.

Keith Weinhold 8:13

Also, let's be mindful when we broke the gold standard in 1971 asset prices took off like a Blue Origin launch, and wages stagnated. That makes it tough to patch together a down payment and look, there is still an antiquated notion out there that apartments especially are like replete with paper thin walls and one in every five units is a meth lab. Have you toured apartment buildings, fourplexes, duplexes and single family rentals built in the last 10 years? Sheesh. Great amenities. Expect to see granite countertops, patios, fenced yards, gyms, sometimes even pet spas at Class A apartments, washer, dryer in unit. I mean, that has been standard for a long time, LED lighting, smart locks, increasingly office nooks for remote workers. Those are the modern amenities that you find in a rental. So the bottom line here is that as Americans age, there is an elongated renter stage of life. It's not just prices or rates, it is lifestyle. And this is why, even when affordability improves, the homeownership rate should continue to drop. More rental demand is coming. So yes, an elongated renter stage, this forever renter, if you will. That is somewhat about finances, but it is more, and this shapes the landlordtenant landscape for decades. And of course, your advantage here at GRE is even if you live in a High Cost part of the nation, we know how to buy here, say, a brand new build to rent single family property in an investor advantage place like Indiana, Missouri, Alabama or Florida, and we get it for, say, 300k or so, and you get a tenant that will pay you rent for four years or more in a lot of cases. So we've been talking about where the rental demand is coming from. It is both a lifestyle choice and a financial consideration for your tenant. Now this forever renter trend, that's something that really matters if you are providing housing to people. But some real estate trends just move so slowly, so glacier like that, you can kind of get lulled to sleep, until one day you look up and a trend has crystallized like the one that I just described. Let's compare a trend like that to something that people think matters a lot, and this does matter, but its importance is overinflated, and that is, for example, the President's nomination of a new Fed chair this year, and how that's going to move the real estate market. No, not as much as people think, as we've learned here, mortgage rates actually don't have that much to do with home prices. And yes, mortgage rates do move. They are correlated with the Fed funds rate. Yes, they are. When one is high, the other will be high. When one is low, the other will be low. They just don't move in direct lockstep. Let's listen in to the remarks of one Donald John Trump on the matter, because he talks about housing here. This is about a minute long, and then I come back to comment when Trump says him, he is apparently pointing to Treasury Secretary Scott Besant, who was in the room at the time, but as you'll hear, he's not expected to be the Fed Chair selection.

Speaker 1 12:06

Have you started the interviews for the Fed chair? Yes. Who have you interviewed? Ithink I already know my choice well. I like to him, but he's not going to take the job very fast. You like Treasury better, right? Much better, sir. So we are talking to various people and the I mean, frankly, I'd love to get the guy currently, and they're out right now,but people are holding me back. He's done a terrible job, hurting housing a little bit. The truth is, we've been so successful, we've blown past his interest rate. Stupidity. He's been wrong. That's why I call him too late. He's too late. Jerome, too late. Powell, he was recommended to me by a guy that made a bad, you know, bad choice, and it's too bad. But despite that, it's having very little impact, because we have, you know, we have all of these things happening, but it has an impact on housing to a certain extent. He's a fool. He's a stupid man, but we have some very good people

Keith Weinhold 13:09

yeah. So this matters, but it's as much entertainment and almost comedy against a demographic trend like the Forever renter propensity, a calendar year recently ended. It's time to make a quick rundown of the overall investing landscape. Once in a while we do that. It's good to check the movement on other asset classes outside real estate. It's our asset class rundown for last year, the s, p5, 100 was up nearly 17% that's the third year in a row of double digit gains in the year that Warren Buffett stepped down as CEO of Berkshire Hathaway, there's a warning. The S and P Schiller price to earnings ratio soared above 40 for only the second time in history. That's an indicator that stocks are overvalued. The only other time that happened was during the.com bubble in real estate, single family home values were up about 2% per the NAR just over 1% per Kay Shiller, apartment building values were flat to a slight decline. There is no such thing as an official apartment building Price Index, CPI inflation, up almost 3% on the year. It now hasn't been at the Fed's target of 2% or lower for a calendar year since 2019 Yeah, it has run hot all that time. Last year, mortgage rates fell from 6.9% to 6.2% and then, as you would expect, the yield on the 10 year treasury note also fell from 4.6 to 4.2 The dollar fell hard with a thud down 9% its worst performance since 2017 WTI oil prices fell from 70 bucks to $58 that's an 18% decline, but really the story of the year among all asset. Classes is what happened with precious metals, gold up a staggering 68% over the past year, touching an all time high of about $4,500 silver, up about 155% leaving investors flabbergasted and slack jawed, touching an all time high of over $80 platinum and palladium had near triple digit gains the real price of gold. This means inflation adjusted even jumped to its all time high last year, significantly surpassing the previous peaks of 1980 2011, and 2020. Realized this. More than 80% of all the recoverable gold on earth has already been extracted. Silver has been the top performing major asset class. In fact, today, a little one ounce silver coin is worth more than a 300 pound barrel of oil. Sticking with the topic of metals, inflation finally killed a penny. The last one was minted in 2025 in Philadelphia, ending a continuous run of the US minting the penny since 1792 no more. Bitcoin was down 6% falling from 93k to 87k the NASDAQ is aiming for near round the clock trading. It currently trades 16 hours a day, five days a week. They are looking to go up to 23 hours a day, five days a week in the second half of this year. That's our year end asset class rundown

Keith Weinhold 16:34

coming up in future weeks of the get rich education podcast. I am going to do an episode on overpopulation versus underpopulation? Is the world over or underpopulated, and is the United States over or underpopulated? This obviously has huge implications for the housing market. Then on another episode, we're going to discuss a real estate axis strategy we've never discussed before, called the 721 exchange. Now you might have heard of the better known 1031 tax deferred exchange, but the 731 is different. When you get older as a property owner and you realize that you don't want the hassles of landlording anymore, you can sell your properties to a partnership. The 721 exchange dictates that this is not a taxable event, and therefore no capital gains taxes or depreciation recapture are due. Property owners still get the benefits of cash flow and the appreciation across a greater number of properties and markets, and it's a great estate planning tool as well. Yes, that's the 721, exchange. We are going to cover it here. When it comes to investment real estate, I guess we cover nearly everything that's coming up on a future episode. As for today, we're talking about property taxes, if they go away, what replaces them that comes up shortly? Visit get richeducation.com to learn more about how we help you and what we do, and to get connected with real estate. Pays five ways type of properties. Visit gre marketplace.com. I'm Keith Weinhold. You're listening to get rich education.

Keith Weinhold 18:23

You know, most people think they're playing it safe with their liquid money, but they're actually losing savings accounts and bonds don't keep up when true inflation eats six or 7% of your wealth. Every single year, I invest my liquidity with FFI freedom family investments in their flagship program. Why? Fixed 10 to 12% returns have been predictable and paid quarterly. There's real world security backed by needs based real estate like affordable housing, Senior Living and health care. Ask about the freedom flagship program when you speak to a freedom coach there, and that's just one part of their family of products. They've got workshops, webinars and seminars designed to educate you before you invest. Start with as little as 25k and finally, get your money working as hard as you do. Get started at Freedom family investments.com/gre, or send a text. Now it's 1-937-795-8989,yep, text their freedom coach directly. Again, 1-937-795-8989,

Keith Weinhold 19:34

the same place where I get my own mortgage loans is where you can get yours. Ridge lending group and MLS, 42056, they provided our listeners with more loans than anyone because they specialize in income properties. They help you build a long term plan for growing your real estate empire with leverage, start your pre qual and even chat with President chailey Ridge personally while it's on your mind. Start at Ridge lending group.com that's Ridge lending group.com

Jim Rickards 20:05

this is author Jim Rickards. Listen to get rich education with Keith Weinhold, and don't quit your Daydream.

Keith Weinhold 20:22

Welcome back to get rich education. Episode 588 for the 12th consecutive year here, I'm your host. Keith Weinhold, I look forward to perhaps meeting you in person this coming weekend, as I'll be attending the real estate guys create your future goals retreat event in Colorado Springs. You probably remember that we have had the events host and leader, Robert Helms, of the real estate guys on the show with us here several times in the past. What a class act I am spending a few extra days after the event in Colorado Springs to both look at local real estate in that market and climb the Manitou incline, that's this grueling climbing challenge up a slope of Pikes Peak. If you want to climb with me after the real estate guys event, bring your running shoes and I'll lead a group of us up there

Keith Weinhold 21:13

if property taxes go away, what replaces them? Realtor.com recently had a terrific article about this that you can look up the property tax revolt is spreading, but the replacement plan isn't let's look at the probability and possibility of eliminating property tax. Think about how property tax elimination would increase the value of your property well, because now every buyer could afford to pay more, since they won't have that property tax expense. And of course, if you were to remove property tax as a line item from your income and expense statement, your cash flow could double, triple, or even five or 10x depending on your current cash, on cash return. But that cash flow part is less likely because most efforts to eliminate the property tax, they focus on homes, primary residences. Well, several states have either active legislation efforts or these sort of informal grassroots movements to significantly cut down or just totally abolish property tax, but no state has fully eliminated them yet. The most prominent efforts are in five states, most notably Florida, where Governor Ron DeSantis has made the most noise about it. He proposed eliminating property taxes on homesteaded which are primary residence properties, and he aims for a constitutional amendment on the November ballot to achieve this, that is 10 months from now. And that proposal, it's still pretty early in the legislative stages, and the state is also considering property tax rebates in the meantime. Now, even if you own rental property, and property tax were only eliminated on primary residences, it would still cause the value of your property to boom pretty nicely, even if it didn't help the cash flow. The state that's made the second most noise is Ohio. A grassroots organization has called Citizens for property tax reform. They have actively campaigned to place a constitutional amendment on their ballot that would just totally abolish property taxes statewide. Third most is Kansas. They propose legislation and that aims to effectively bump up sales tax to replace property tax. The fourth out of five is North Dakota. Let's look at what they're doing following a failed 2024, ballot measure to just totally abolish the property tax outright. Well, there's a new proposal from the governor, and that seeks this phased out elimination for most homeowners over a decade. And see, North Dakota has a slightly better chance of pulling that off, because they can fund that from the state's Legacy Fund, that's their oil well fund, and then making the fifth most abolition of property tax noise is my home state of Pennsylvania. Lawmakers have introduced bills to eliminate all property tax. They also aim for a constitutional amendment to put that issue before the voters. So they are the five states that have made the most noise, and that's what their approach is.

Keith Weinhold 24:43

Now, seemingly for most of my life, homeowners and landlords have griped about property tax, saying it's the most ridiculous tax of them all, because you pay it year after year after year in perpetuity. And it just never goes away. Unlike other taxes that are just a one time tax, even if your property's mortgage is paid off, you still have a house payment, and that is largely due to property tax. Understand, though, that currently a lot of states give you a reduced property tax once you reach a senior age, usually age 65 plus some start as low as 61 but when it comes to eliminating the property tax, there's a part of the conversation that's really important, and it has been notably absent, and that is a novel solution to replace the lost revenue. And it gets rather interesting to look around and see where else the money might be raised if they eliminate property tax. See, and this is really important to understand, property taxes generate 70% of local revenue, up to 90% of school funding and 25% of all state and local tax revenue in aggregate in Florida. Okay, that's just in Florida those numbers, but a lot of states have a similar scenario, and in Florida, that comes out to about $50 billion a year. That is a big hole to plug, that is a big gap to fill, and it underlines both the burden homeowners are currently shouldering and how hard it's going to be to fill that gap with anything that's more stable or equitable, that's going to last as a funding source, yes, 90% of school funding. You heard that, right? If you talk to an old timer, you know sometimes you still hear an elderly person refer to property taxes as school taxes. So see, this question of, Do you want to abolish property taxes? One reason that's become louder and louder these past few years, and why you hear more about it is due to that increased affordability strain. That's why you're hearing more about it now the question, do you want to abolish property taxes? That is the wrong question. A grassroots push to AX the property tax that's gained traction, really, among some senior homeowners facing property tax bills that are as high as their mortgage. Once was last summer, for example, in Mahoning County, Ohio, the tax delinquency rate hit 18% almost one in five people having trouble paying their property tax, and that county had more than 70 million in unpaid property taxes. In some neighborhoods in Youngstown, as many as one in three homeowners were behind. And in Cuyahoga County, which is basically Cleveland, values jumped 32% on average after reassessments that fueled a $60 million dollar increase in past due balances this whole do we want to abolish property taxes? Question? You're going to see why that's the wrong question and why it's incomplete, because that slogan that skips the only part that really matters here, and that is, what is the replacement plan, realistically, taxpayers should be asked if, in lieu of property tax, they'd rather pay higher sales taxes or higher income taxes, or for those with no state income tax, like Texas or Florida, pay one for the first time. I don't like those answers. I wish governments would spend more efficiently, but that's not the angle that we're looking at here. Property taxes are the true lifeblood of local governments. I mean, they fund everything from public safety to roads to schools, and just because property taxes disappear, well that doesn't mean that the need for firefighters goes away, that the need for police officers goes away, or the infrastructure for public school systems is going to be gone, or the roads go away. So if property taxes are cut, then another revenue generating device has to emerge to keep services funded and running. And it's a little funny. I've been talking about certain states here. But of course, property taxes are exacted and assessed at the county and local level. And look, I mean, you know how the world works, you know what the nature of society is. As soon as someone has their income stream, they quickly grow into that lifestyle and the new larger spending pattern. So taking away an existing income stream or even reducing it a little, I mean, that can almost trigger outrage and protests, for example, the outcry that we had last year about cutting snap payments. But it works this way. With anything. I mean, sheesh. For the majority of Americans, if you cut their income even 10% they would struggle to survive. They would struggle to put food in the fridge. So these repeal the property tax campaigns, they often avoid the reality of the replacement math.

Keith Weinhold 30:19

Now, some states have taken a swing at replacing property tax revenue, but few, if any, have succeeded. Now, Nebraska lawmakers, what they did is they floated higher cigarette taxes as a way to fund a goal of cutting their property taxes by 40% I mean, nice try. But according to an analysis by the Tax Foundation, that tax base was far too small. I mean to tell you more about what a terrible miss. This example is Nebraska cigarette taxes. They raised about $52 million in 2024 while property taxes raised $5.3 billion that is 100 times more, not even close, even if you could raise more money in the short run, excise revenues like this cigarette tax, they're pretty volatile, and they often shrink as the demand ebbs and flows. So it really makes them a poor backbone for expenses that grow over time, and they don't eliminate the cost so much as concentrated. So what they do is they sort of shift this broad civic obligation funding all this stuff, police, fire, school, from homeowners onto a much narrower group, in this case, people who smoke. That is not going to work for Nebraska, all right, well, what about a bigger deal, like replacing it with sales tax? Well, they run into a different problem. Local economies are not built the same. You might have a sales tax heavy tourist County, well, they can raise far more money than an agricultural county. And Florida is a clear illustration. They have lots of tourism and lots of agriculture replacing property taxes with sales tax. That would require eye popping sales tax rates too. According to the Tax Foundation Florida statewide, they would have to go from 7% to over 15% sales tax in Florida. But it gets even worse, because counties with a thin sales tax base would have to charge over 32% sales tax. My gosh, that is not going to work, all right. Well, how about another big one? Let's have income taxes replace property tax in a lot of states. I mean, the income tax that's large enough to raise pretty meaningful revenue. But the trade off is that income taxes come with their own sort of economic and political distortions, and once they're added, you know, they rarely stay confined to the tidy swap that voters were promised. I mean, look at New Jersey. They adopted an income tax in the 1970s to provide property tax relief, but over time, that swap proved hard to manage and hard to enforce, and now today, New Jersey has one of the highest effective property tax and state income tax rates combined in the nation. So the point is that all these property tax replacement tools are just inherently piecemeal. Each tax or fee has like this different payer base or some different vulnerability. I mean, if tourism dips, for example, revenues could drop really fast. And the same is true if a regulated industry contracts, or if consumption patterns shift. And you know that volatility, that's manageable for some narrow program, but that is dangerous as the foundation for essential services like public safety and street maintenance and police and schools and fire. Well, how about forgetting all that? Let's just have the government then totally get out of providing public safety and not have the government provide street maintenance and have the government get out of schools. I mean, we used to have more private companies provide you with some of those services. We didn't even have a federal income tax at all until 1913 other than a temporary one to fund the Civil War. But all of that is a bigger topic that we are not going to get into today. The point is, instead of asking the question, do you want to abolish property taxes? The better question is, which replacement are you choosing and who pays for it? Because local costs come on, they're just not likely to shrink anytime soon. After all, all of this schools, fire and police departments, public works, divisions, they're all subject to the same inflation and the same rising costs as the rest of the economy is so the property tax is unpopular. As it is, it does have one functional advantage. It is tied to this immovable base of properties. It's collected locally, and it's designed to fund on going services. That is not to say that some homeowners don't need relief. Some of them clearly do. But eliminating property taxes, that just does not eliminate the underlying cost of government. All it does is reallocate it, and that reallocation can get messy, that shifts a bigger burden onto a smaller share of taxpayers, whether it's smokers, like it was in Nebraska, or whether it's rural shoppers like the Florida sales tax example, or doubly on working homeowners, like it is in the New Jersey income tax example. I have studied this, and I have not seen novel approaches that really keep communities funded without creating some new distortion somewhere else. But unfortunately, one thing that I have seen is this repeal rhetoric, and it makes these political platitudes all that want to just conveniently skip the replacement plan, but it all sounds good and popular when someone stands up there and says that they want to eliminate property taxes. So really the honest question on a ballot. It's not, do you want to abolish property taxes? The honest question is, are you willing to pay higher sales taxes or higher income taxes or adopt one for the first time and accept the distortions that those choices to create to eliminate the property tax? I'm not going to get into the political side of all this, because that's not what we do here. The bottom line is, though, that you're probably going to hear more about the property tax going away. It is unlikely, of course, as income property investors here, property tax is largely built into the rent. It is passed along to your tenant, and a small reduction would help you out, probably not so much on your cash flow side, since most of these proposals are only for primary residences, but even a small property tax reduction on primary residences that would boost all property values, even rental property in the one to four unit space. But you shouldn't expect much here. If property taxes are eliminated, there is just no easy and viable replacement. That's your answer today, if you represent a company that serves real estate investors get rich. Education has over 3 million IAB certified downloads and 5.8 million total listener downloads. You can learn more about advertising on the show at getricheducation.com/ad, that's get rich education.com/ad

Speaker 2 37:51

for the production team here at GRE, that's our sound engineer, bedroom jampo, who has edited every single GRE podcast episode since 2014 QC and show notes Brenda Almendariz, video lead, Binaya Gyawali, strategy Tallah Mugal, video editor, Saroza KC and producer me, we'll run it back next week for you. I'm your host. Keith Weinhold, Don't Quit Your Daydream.

Speaker 3 38:17

nothing on this show should be considered specific personal or professional advice, please consult an appropriate tax, legal, real estate, financial or business professional for individualized advice. Opinions of guests are their own. Information is not guaranteed. All investment strategies have the potential for profit or loss. The host is operating on behalf of get rich Education LLC, exclusively

Keith Weinhold 38:45

The preceding program was brought to you by your home for wealth building, getricheducation.com

Direct download: GREepisode588_b.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 4:00am EST

Mon, 5 January 2026

Keith explores why the real goal of building wealth isn’t luxury—it’s protecting yourself from the emotional and practical pain of money stress.

You’ll hear how owning the right kinds of assets can change your lifestyle options over time, and why waiting on the sidelines can quietly erode your financial future.

Keith also pulls back the curtain on a major, often overlooked force that has helped keep real estate values resilient for years, and what that means for anyone thinking about adding more property to their portfolio.

Finally, you’ll get a sense of the kinds of opportunities and strategies listeners are using right now to move from just getting by to playing to win in their wealth building journey.

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586: Why US Home Prices Have NEVER Crashed, GRE's 2026 Home Price Appreciation Forecast

Complete episode transcript:

Keith Weinhold 0:01

Welcome to GRE I'm your host. Keith Weinhold, more important than building wealth is avoiding poverty. It's backed up by research. Learn about a force that constantly gives a boost to real estate values that you probably haven't considered before, and own assets or get left behind. I discuss a plan for doing it today on get rich education.

Speaker 1 0:29

Since 2014 the powerful get rich education podcast has created more passive income for people than nearly any other show in the world. This show teaches you how to earn strong returns from passive real estate investing in the best markets without losing your time being a flipper or landlord. Show Host Keith Weinhold writes for both Forbes and Rich Dad advisors and delivers a new show every week since 2014 there's been millions of listener downloads of 188 world nations. He has a list show guests include top selling personal finance author Robert Kiyosaki. Get rich education can be heard on every podcast platform, plus it has its own dedicated Apple and Android listener phone apps build wealth on the go with the get rich education podcast. Sign up now for the get rich education podcast, or visit get rich education.com

Corey Coates 1:14

You're listening to the show that has created more financial freedom than nearly any show in the world. This is get rich education.

Keith Weinhold 1:30

Welcome to GRE from Dar es Salaam Tanzania to Darlington, South Carolina, and across 188 nations worldwide. I'm Keith Weinhold, and this is get rich education the voice of real estate investing since 2014 and it's a new year, part of the reason why you need to build durable wealth for yourself is actually not to be wealthy. It's really to avoid a lack of wealth. It's in order to pad yourself against poverty. Now, shortly, I want to talk to you more aspirationally if you are or soon plan to make 500k per year or more.

Keith Weinhold 2:15

But first, there are a number of studies that show that beyond a certain level, more wealth barely increases your happiness level. In fact, if you ask many people, they say that doubling their income or doubling their net worth is what they really want, like, that's their goal. Like, in their mind, that's the benchmark in which they've made it. And you know what, when they double their income, though, then they want to double it again. They think that that is the next benchmark. So there can be this endless amount of wanting, because once you've doubled, you just want to keep doubling. But what's really more important is padding against money problems, because if having a little more doesn't change your happiness much, well, it's poverty that can really diminish a level of happiness and fulfillment in your life. So money problems don't just hurt your wallet. They actually hurt your emotions. And this isn't just some motivational poster idea, the statistics are clear. Multiple studies show that when money is scarce, when paying the regular bills feels like a monthly street fight, people report more sadness, more worry and even depression, not just sometimes, but constantly. The reality is that about 71% of Americans say that money is a major source of stress. My gosh, more than seven out of 10. So that's not a fringe category. That's the norm that say money is a major source of stress. Another study found that 42% of adults say money negatively affects their mental health. So close to half of the people walking around you right now feel emotionally beat up by their financial situation, and the gap gets even wider when you compare groups, when people experience serious financial hardship, nearly half, 49% show signs of depression among people without any financial hardship, only about 11% of that group show signs of depression. And Northwestern Mutual did an extensive study on all this. So it's not just a small difference, it's a completely different emotional reality, almost like two separate worlds. To put it plainly. For you, money will not guarantee happiness, but a lack of money can absolutely fuel sadness, and this matters. Because financial confidence isn't just about dollars. It's about dignity. It's about feeling like you're able to breathe, and it's about believing that your future can be bigger than your past. I mean, the research also shows the relationship flows in both directions. Money stress can make mental health worse, and poor mental health can make financial decision making harder. So it's sort of this loop, this cycle. And what breaks the cycle? It's not luck. It's not hoping the economy magically fixes all of its problems. It is going on offense, taking steps that build security instead of surrender, for most people, that turning point comes when they start owning assets, not just paying bills. It comes when money stops being a source of fear and it starts being a tool. Because though we focus on real estate investing here at GRE but ultimately it is a lifestyle improvement show. And before we're done today, I'm going to talk about what you can actionably do to go on offense. Now, what if you already have a higher income, or you expect to make a high income in the near term, if you're earning roughly $500,000 per year or more, and you value time efficiency in making sure that you don't live a rough quality of life. You are on the threshold of a tier that helps ensure that you can avoid some misery. Yes, there is a step change here that can help ensure you have a higher standard of living. Do you know what I might be talking about? Any idea 500k of income is where it begins now. It's only beginning here. At this point, to make sense, where you tilt into starting to fly private instead of flying commercial. Yeah, private flights. Now your situation is going to depend on more than just the income. It's whether or not you're single or you have kids and more, but it's at this income level where you can start to cover a $10,000 flight without biting into your essential living expenses. It's most justifiable when your time savings or your productivity gains translate into real value. I'm talking about things like business deals, meetings and schedules and the benefits of flying privately are pretty significant. Time efficiency is the real superpower here, drive up to the plane, wheels up in minutes. The flexibility is there. You can leave pretty much when you want. You can change your flight plans mid trip if you need to. You get access to smaller airports. That means you can land closer to your final destination and skip big city traffic congestion. You've got privacy and security, no crowds, no TSA stuff. You've got quality of experience, comfort, quiet cabins, custom catering, no competing for overhead bin space. Now even affordable private is still pretty expensive. It is substantially more than first class commercial seats, and I have had limited experience flying private, but at 500k of income, flying private can still feel like a stretch, even though it's doable for you, a more comfortable range is a million dollars or more of annual income, that's when private flights feel much easier to justify for business or lifestyle. Now, with $2 million of annual income or more, most heavy private flyers live here in this range, the $2 million plus income level, they can charter, they can fractionally own, or they can use memberships, all with less stress. When you earn this much, and if you're ultra high net worth, we're talking about $5 million worth of income plus or $20 million worth of net worth plus, well, then private flying is really commonplace. This is where you often have a personal jet, concierge services and flexibility on demand. So as the first episode of the year here, I want to give you some opportunity to dream and goal set. Yeah, you need to stretch out and give space to your aspirations sometimes, and this is a good time to do that, really, though, a more important reason for increasing your income and net worth is that it helps you avoid the discomfort of poverty. But yeah, come on, if nothing else, can you believe that before every commercial flight you have to hear that nonsense about how to inflate a raft if you're. Plane crashes in the water, or you could use your seat as a personal flotation device. Come on your seat. Can't even support your back for a three hour flight. If there's ever been a reason to invest Well, it's so that you never have to hear that stuff again before every flight chase

Keith Weinhold 10:19

last week here on the show, you'll learn more about how stable real estate prices are, why prices have never crashed in your entire life, and also why they can't double in one year. Real Estate is too slow moving 30 days between you making your offer and you closing the deal, that's actually considered pretty fast. In fact, if national home prices ever crash, I will legally change my first name to Fabrice, yes, Fabrice, I would also do that if they doubled in a year. It is almost impossible for either of those things to happen. You learned about how these things have not happened in your entire lifetime on last week's show, yes, even in 2008 in the last 85 years, nominal home prices have risen every single year, except seven of them now. Why is that? Why are the prices of US housing so resilient and just keep going up up up, almost inexorably? Well, it's actually more than just the main well documented reasons that you know about and that we've talked about here. It's about more than these attributes, like population growth, household formation, wage growth, inflation, eroding the currency and land scarcity in desirable areas beyond all of those, one reason that home values just keep going up, up up and are expected to rise again this year is something that We have not discussed yet, and that is government intervention? Yes, in the US and a lot of world places, housing is not a free market. We have a free ish market that sort of comes with training wheels and support animals. Think about how the government helps ensure that home prices stay propped up even through most recessions. We're talking about attributes like ever expanding loan access and mortgage interest deductibility. Then there's depreciation in write offs for investors like us and property tax structures that lag market value when loans have lower down payment requirements or a lowering of credit score requirements and ever expanding loan limits in terms of dollar amounts, well, that increases the demand for those that have the capacity to pay, and it nudges up prices even more incentives, like deducting your mortgage interest in tax depreciation when you don't even have a real expense, but yet you get to write it off anyway. It all heaps on the government driven demand for real estate Now none of these individual things, these government interventions, raise prices overnight, they increase demand structurally. There's evidence that the government is doing even more in recent years to prop up housing demand than they have in the past. This is increasingly a propensity to not let housing fail like it did in 2008 I mean, just look at covid During 2020, and 2021, what a glaring example of how government will prop up home values and not let them fall down if you lost your job during covid. Oh, we'll give you mortgage loan forbearance. That's where you could skip. Oh, just say nine monthly payments, and then you can just tack those nine payments onto the end of your 30 year loan and make those payments decades from now. There was a foreclosure moratorium in effect then too, so you've got forbearance and low rates and stimulus checks and a ban on foreclosures. Well, all of that helped borrowers make payments, and that supported home price growth. There was no fire sailing, really, that could have taken place then, and you will recall that during that time period, in fact, the year 2021 national home prices soared 19% so housing is not a completely free market. You really don't have to look very far to know that. I mean, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are both still government sponsored and still in conservatorship. And here's the thing, so far, I've only talked about how government has propped up the demand side. Side of the market. I've only talked about half of it. Don't forget the sometimes unintentional supply restriction the governments induce as well keeping housing supply in check. Well, that helps drive price appreciation. I'm talking about the zoning spaghetti that new homebuilders have to navigate through the permit purgatory, minimum lot sizes that can seem larger than some European countries, environmental reviews that last longer than the movie Avengers. Endgame was that a three hour, two minute movie, all of these roadblocks limit new housing supply that makes it harder to build. So governments provide an ever present tailwind to housing values by both boosting demand and by crimping supply. Government amplifies these forces, sometimes intentionally and sometimes unintentionally, but the result is the same propping up housing values. If all these years since coming out of the Great Recession have shown us anything, and the 2020 pandemic reinforced it, it is to either own assets or get left behind. You've got to own assets or you will be left behind, and that's whether you're trying to stay away from poverty, like I talked about at the top of the show, or whether you're aiming to fly private instead of commercial, something more aspirational, really. That's the lesson I've got more straight ahead here. There will only ever be one get rich education podcast episode 587 and you're listening to it.

Keith Weinhold 16:43

You know, most people think they're playing it safe with their liquid money, but they're actually losing savings accounts and bonds don't keep up when true inflation eats six or 7% of your wealth. Every single year, I invest my liquidity with FFI freedom family investments in their flagship program. Why? Fixed 10 to 12% returns have been predictable and paid quarterly. There's real world security backed by needs based real estate like affordable housing, Senior Living and health care. Ask about the freedom flagship program. When you speak to a freedom coach there, and that's just one part of their family of products, they've got workshops, webinars and seminars designed to educate you before you invest. Start with as little as 25k and finally, get your money working as hard as you do. Get started at Freedom family investments.com/gre, or send a text. Now it's 1-937-795-8989, yep, text their freedom coach directly again. 1-937-795-8989,

Keith Weinhold 17:54

the same place where I get my own mortgage loans is where you can get yours. Ridge lending group and MLS, 42056, they provided our listeners with more loans than anyone because they specialize in income properties. They help you build a long term plan for growing your real estate empire with leverage. Start your prequel and even chat with President chailey Ridge personally while it's on your mind, start at Ridge lending group.com that's Ridge lending group.com

Dana Dunford 18:27

this is hemlane's co founder, Dana Dunford. Listen to get rich education with Keith Weinhold, and don't quit your Daydream. You Keith,

Keith Weinhold 18:45

welcome back to get rich Education. I'm your host. Keith Weinhold, we're talking about new angles with respect to how the future belongs to asset owners. Every year, people say, This is my year, but only a few actually take the action to back that up and make it come true. One thing that I've learned is that people love saying, I want an opportunity, but what they really want is certainty. Unfortunately, certainty only shows up after opportunity is gone. History is full of people who walked past moments like this now owning more of an asset like real estate today, and instead they just look and say, Oh, it's probably nothing. Well, what about alternatives? What's your employer's plan for you? I mean, really, what's a typical employer's plan for employees spend 40 years here at this desk, and I guarantee that you'll become moderately comfortable with a nice 401K balance that you can start withdrawing from by the time you're age 65 at which time you'll start paying taxes on it too. So really, that's it. That's their plan for you. Yes, that's their plan for you. Though, as you know, I do not forecast mortgage rates. No one, not one analyst or rating agency, expects mortgage rates to fall substantially any time soon as we look at the real estate landscape, in fact, among 21 different major research groups, which include PNC Bank, Redfin, Moody's, wells, Fargo, the NAR totality, if you average what their forecasts are, one year from now, mortgage rates are expected to be at the same level that they are today, which is about 6.2% if you want to add more assets, prices are probably only going to be higher one year from now. The Fed is involved in QE like behavior again, which resumed last month, that gives the effect of more money printing, and it provides an environment for a continued price run up across not just real estate, but nearly every asset class. Current CPI inflation is 2.7% and long term inflation expectations are elevated. The Fed is cutting rates. The current Fed funds rate is about 3.6% and the President wants the Fed funds rate cut to 1% central banks are stockpiling gold, and the US dollar just had its worst year since 2017 so a lot is lining up to keep supporting housing values. Now, when we zoom out, starting back in 2012 us home prices have now risen 14 years in a row, and the average annual gain since that time is about 6% which is sustainable and close to historic norms. Year after year. Some people keep waiting for the right moment, and meanwhile, the right moment just keeps passing them by. And look, now here's a really interesting way for you to look at things from a long time investor like me, I have bought a wide variety of investment real estate over the years. I bought single family homes to both live in and single family homes to rent out vacant land, agricultural parcels, small apartment buildings and larger apartment buildings on every single one at the time when I purchased it, it was the most that anyone had ever paid for that property in that property's history, and if there were bids and I ended up getting the property, then I was the highest bidder as well. So on. Effectively, every single property purchase of my life, I paid more than anyone ever. And if someone had no understanding of the real estate market. They might think that that sounded bad, like I executed with a poor strategy or a lack of experience or direction, but that's just usually how it works in real estate, with the incessant postulation of almost unceasing appreciation and inflation, and years later, when it was time for me to sell the property, what were those conditions like? What happened then? You guessed it, I sold it for the most that it had ever sold for. So for that next buyer, that was the most then that anyone had ever paid for the property in history, yet again, and if it was a bidding situation, chances are I sold it to the highest bidder. So therefore, that has nothing to do with luck, that has nothing to do with timing, that is simply being an active participant in the real estate market and enjoying the leverage and all the other benefits all the while. So history shows that trying to time things based on market conditions or what you think market conditions are going to be, that does not work. What does work is owning more assets sooner. Every property that you purchase, expect to pay more for it than anyone ever has in that property's history. And then every property that you sell down the road, expect that you're going to sell it for more than what anyone has ever sold it for. Historically, that is normal. Now if your net worth is below $1 million or even below $5 million you really can't play the game not to lose. That's what keeps people stuck. You've got to play to win. The world already has your money. If you want access to it, you have simply got to go out. Out and get it. You play offense now, and you can play defense later, when your financial position is where you want it really and here's a huge insight, more money is lost trying to avoid a downturn than is lost actually being in the market when one finally happens, like I've discussed lately, real estate price downturns are uncommon. Sitting out and waiting is a wealth killer, because even if a downturn does happen, well, if you're already invested, you are positioned for the upturn. You're going to get the full measure of the upturn. That's where the real gains are, and this is where real estate is different. Leverage just keeps working for you. In the background, your 401, k does not do that. There's no leverage beyond maybe a two to one employer match, and then you get taxed when you finally touch the money. Some people like to gamble a little play a prediction market like poly market. Have something in Bitcoin, maybe even have exposure to a risky altcoin. I guess the NFL playoffs start this coming weekend. Some people want to bet on that and have their fun. Maybe even be invested in a high flying tech stock, or even the sp500. These vehicles rarely build wealth when you're actually young enough to enjoy it, because you're probably unleveraged there, you're exposed. You've only got your dollars working for you, not others, and you sure can do some of that day to day stuff. Go on polymarket and bet on when man will first land on Mars or something. Have your fun while the real wealth is built by the quiet, slow moving leverage of your larger real estate portfolio. In the background. Real estate, you can put 20 to 25% down on a 200k income property and control the whole thing. That's what investors are doing with our GRE marketplace properties right now, often in a low cost market like, say, Kansas City or Memphis, say that, for example, you're looking to add four doors this year, four rental units. Now that might take the form of one duplex and two new build Florida single family rentals. Now, with about 250k you can control $1 million of property adding assets this year. And here at GRE our nationwide provider network connects you with the real deals, and our providers often tell us about them before the public knows, for example, the properties where the builder still in this environment buys your rate down to perhaps four and a half percent. That is still happening. And why do the properties that our GRE investment coaches connect you with seem like such good deals at times? Well, there's a few reasons for that. Investor advantage markets just intrinsically have low prices. There's no agent that you have to compensate. It's a direct model that keeps the price down. These providers provide homes in bulk that helps keep the price down. And since we're dealing with investment properties, income producing properties, there are not any of these owner occupied emotions, so you don't get unreasonable sellers that hold out for a high price because there's some sentimental attachment there, or something like that.

Keith Weinhold 28:38

Let me give you three examples of real properties that our GRE investment coaching helps connect you with right now, and this is the place to be entry level homes, because entry level homes are few long term you are going to own a scarce asset that everybody wants. The first one is a brand new build single family rental in Cullman, Alabama. That's right between Birmingham and Huntsville, booming Huntsville. Now this property is currently vacant. However, it's in an A class neighborhood, so good appreciation potential, but less cash flow on this one, the rent is $2,100 the purchase price is 317k Yes, just 317k for this five bed, three bath, 2500 square foot rental, single family home. That's new build. One advantage Alabama has, and why we often have available Alabama properties is that really low property tax in that state you're going to benefit from a low fixed expense ratio over the long term. Alabama, property taxes are well under 1% per year as a percentage of the property value. In fact, at less than 410 Tax of 1% Alabama has the lowest property taxes in the entire continental United States. Only Hawaii has a lower one, where you're going to find a national average of 1% or a little more than 1% the second property is also brand new construction. It is a duplex in Goddard, Kansas, which is outside Wichita, each side of the duplex has three beds, two baths and 1300 68 square feet combined. Rents both sides are $3,500 and the purchase price is 447k and it is leased. Both sides are rented out. You can contact our free investment coaching and scoop up this or one like it today, and I'm looking at pictures of this really good looking new build duplex in the Wichita area. Looks like a two car garage on both sides, really attractive. And again, on these new builds, oftentimes the homebuilder is still buying down your mortgage rate for you, often under 5% the last one I'll mention, and I'm just giving you three samples to help give you an idea here. And if you're listening to this in a few years, you'll probably wish you could purchase these at prices this low. This last one is not new builds. Unfortunately, I can't quickly find the year of construction, but it looks older. It is a Kansas City single family rental, fully renovated. The cash flow numbers are super attractive. $2,100 rent on a purchase price of just $227,500 and free property management for two years is offered here on this renovated Kansas single family rental. Our investment coaching can answer questions about it for you. When something's renovated, you definitely want to see what the scope of work is. And there are also larger properties available. If you're looking to trade up some of your properties with accumulated equity into something else, we can help build an entire portfolio for you, or you might currently be only invested in one market, where we can help you determine what second market might make sense for you based on your time horizon and your own goals. Hey, maybe you've got a private plane in a decade kind of goal, or maybe we'll help you find out that adding more property does not make sense for you at this time in your situation, even though the opportunities are pretty good right now, because compared to two years ago, the inventory to select from is wider today, And the mortgage rates are lower now too GRE investment coaches are your free trusted advisors. It's like having a silent partner on your deal, someone who gives you insight but doesn't take any equity. There's no compensation for you to provide at all. It's about your portfolio, your goals and your direction. And our coaches also help you with services related to managing your real estate assets long term, like your tax and CPA questions, legal questions, though, that's pretty limited, because we're not attorneys here. For example, what happens if you have an appraisal surprise and the appraisal comes in lower than the amount that you've contracted to buy a property for, we help you with something like that, any inventory issues or inspection issues and property management guidance that you might need. In fact, if you've engaged with our free investment coaching in the past, even a few years ago, and we helped you find a property and say, now you have some sort of property management issue. Let us know. Keep in touch with your GRE investment coach. You tell someone like Naresh here, and he will step in. And when you set up a time to chat, which you can do at greinvestmentcoach.com There's really nothing special that you need to do to prepare if you can bring a 20% down payment. Now the ball is already rolling, and in today's environment with closing costs, that's usually about a 50k minimum. It helps if you're pre approved for a mortgage loan with Ridge lending group, or whomever your lender of choice is. What's interesting is that these deals are good. These are real estate pays five ways, properties that our coaches help connect you with. So sometimes we are buying these properties ourselves here at GRE. We have in the past, but there is no way we can buy them all, not even close. That means that an opportunity remains for you. Yes, we are real estate investors ourselves here at GRE, right now, there are better properties available than ones that we've bought ourselves recently, and there is more overall selection too. You can easily see the coach's calendar, select a time and then have a phone call or a zoom chat, whatever you like. If. From there. Our coaches usually give you their phone number, so then later, you can even text them. Our coach, Naresh, he responded to someone on Thanksgiving. That's the level of dedication here. So here's the next step. Book a time at GREinvestmentcoach.com you can do that now. That's where the calendar lives. There's no back and forth. Just pick a time right there that works. It's Free. Select a 30 minute time slot, and lately they've been available seven days a week. And you're going to walk away with clarity on your goals, your timeline and what's realistic for you, if you're tired of watching from the sidelines, tired of trying not to lose, tired of waiting for perfect conditions, and conditions are never perfect, well, this is your moment to play to win. It's pretty easy to remember to connect with a GRE investment coach. Visit greinvestmentcoach.com Until next week, I'm your host. Keith Weinhold, don't quit your Daydream.

Speaker 2 36:10

Nothing on this show should be considered specific personal or professional advice. Please consult an appropriate tax, legal, real estate, financial or business professional for individualized advice. Opinions of guests are their own. Information is not guaranteed. All investment strategies have the potential for profit or loss. The host is operating on behalf of get rich Education LLC, exclusively.

Keith Weinhold 36:38

The preceding program was brought to you by your home for wealth building, get richeducation.com

Direct download: GREepisode587_.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 4:00am EST

Mon, 29 December 2025

Keith shares a mindset-shifting quote from John D. Rockefeller that challenges the idea of trading time for money.

He revisits some of the year’s most powerful real estate investing lessons, and breaks down the big forces shaping today’s housing market—affordability, supply & demand, demographics, and interest rates.

All of this sets the stage for his data-driven national home price outlook for next year—without the usual crash-and-doom hype.

Episode Page:

GetRichEducation.com/586

For access to properties or free help with a

GRE Investment Coach, start here:

GRE Free Investment Coaching: GREinvestmentcoach.com

Get mortgage loans for investment property:

RidgeLendingGroup.com or call 855-74-RIDGE

or e-mail: info@RidgeLendingGroup.com

Invest with Freedom Family Investments.

For predictable 10-12% quarterly returns, visit FreedomFamilyInvestments.com/GRE or text 1-937-795-8989 to speak with a freedom coach

Will you please leave a review for the show? I’d be grateful. Search “how to leave an Apple Podcasts review”

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585: The Fed's Quiet War on the Middle Class with Doug Casey

Complete episode transcript:

Keith Weinhold 0:00

Welcome to GRE. I'm your host. Keith Weinhold, learn from a quote attributed to the world's first billionaire, it will change how you see wealth building. I'll explain why national home prices have never crashed. Then it's gre, 2026, home price appreciation forecast. You'll learn the future the exact percent that home prices will appreciate or depreciate next year. Today on get rich education

Speaker 1 0:29

since 2014 the powerful get rich education podcast has created more passive income for people than nearly any other show in the world. This show teaches you how to earn strong returns from passive real estate investing in the best markets without losing your time being a flipper or landlord. Show Host Keith Weinhold writes for both Forbes and Rich Dad advisors and delivers a new show every week since 2014 there's been millions of listener downloads of 188 world nations. He has a list show guests include top selling personal finance author Robert Kiyosaki. Get rich education can be heard on every podcast platform, plus it has its own dedicated Apple and Android listener phone apps build wealth on the go with the get rich education podcast. Sign up now for the get rich education podcast, or visit get rich education.com

Corey Coates 1:14

You're listening to the show that has created more financial freedom than nearly any show in the world. This is get rich education.

Keith Weinhold 1:30

Welcome to GRE from Lake Huron, Michigan to Lake Tahoe, California and across 188 nations worldwide. I'm Keith Weinhold, and you're listening to get rich education. You know something I love, quotes that shift your entire mindset, paradigm, and once your mind is shifted, actions follow. Actions develop into patterns. Those patterns become habits, and habits become the new, transformed you few quotes hit harder than the one from resource tycoon John D Rockefeller. He lived from 1839 to 1937 in fact, Rockefeller is widely regarded as the world's first billionaire. His quote, you might have heard it before. It is this, he who works all day has no time to make money. That sounds paradoxical, even provocative. It's sort of like it's inviting you to come in and want to learn more about it. And this is because most people's concept of income generating is to work 40 hours a week for a salary or an hourly wage. But what does that quote really mean? He who works all day has no time to make money, and be sure to capture the all day part of that quote that ties right back into the show that I did with you two weeks ago about the K shaped economy breakdown, where you learned about how capital compounds labor doesn't most people sell their time for dollars, but trading time for money makes you too busy to actually build Wealth. Working and building wealth. Those things are two separate distinct activities in how you're investing your time and energy. Now, most people start out with a wage or a salary job. I surely worked by pushing brooms and cubicle dwelling before investing in my first rental property. But if you're working all day in a job, physically or mentally well, then you're consumed by tasks that only pay you. Once you're occupied, you can often get exhausted and you're only concerned with short term output. You're focused on the next deadline, not the next decade, when all your hours are spent on labor, you have no bandwidth to do what you need to do, which is, create vision, acquire assets, build a portfolio, develop systems, learn tax strategy, evaluate investment deals, network with like minded investors, or refine your strategy with a GRE investment coach. Be cognizant that labor only pays today. Wealth building pays forever. Even if your work a day job, salary doubled, you would have to ask, how would that even build wealth? You could retire earlier, but you would have to keep working the hours, and let's remember that wealth equals freedom. You can't architect a wealth plan from the assembly line. Now, that's something that Rockefeller would have agreed with. Wealth requires less. Leverage and labor has none. So working all day means no leverage. You are the engine instead making money, that means using leverage, and instead of you being the engine, well, the engine is something else, like assets, systems, technology, other people's time, other people's money, and borrowing to inflation profit. Rockefeller believed and proved that leverage beats labor 100 to one. He's not discouraging work. In fact, it's just the wrong type of work, because he was one of the hardest working people alive. And really the bottom line here, with this quote, he who works all day has no time to make money, is that Rockefeller meant that if you spend your life doing tasks, you'll never rise high enough to own things that pay you for life. Earning a living is a different activity than building wealth, and once your mindset is shifted, actions follow, yep, actions develop into patterns, and those patterns become the new you. well as the last episode of the year on the show here, 52 weeks worth, I sure hope that I've helped you think, learn and grow your wealth, as have our guest contributors here early in the year, the father of Reaganomics was here, a man that frequently advised a president inside the White House. He told us how much he dislikes tariffs. Tariffs block free trade, and trade improves our lives. Major apartment investor, Ken McElroy, was here this year, and he predicted that the American home ownership rate will fall below 60% that would be major it's currently at 65 if the home ownership rate falls to 60% that would unleash millions of new renters into the market, and it has not been that low in decades, if ever you got a lot of mortgage insights with chailey Ridge, including learning how you can qualify for income property loans without a w2 job, without a pay stub or without tax returns by instead getting a DSCR loan. You'll recall this year that I discussed 50 year mortgages, and I did that before it even hit the news cycle, telling you that it could be coming and that it could be proposed. I explained why I like 50 year mortgages more than 30 year loans, but be aware it is not imminent that they're coming. Also this year, economist Richard Duncan and commentator Doug Casey discussed the Fed. Richard told us how the President is trying to totally restructure who serves on the Fed, trying to get low interest rate pushers in there. And then just last week, Doug and I discussed how fed decisions just keep hollowing out the middle class. A and E television star Todd drillette told us how to negotiate. I had four good discussions with our own investment coach, nuresh this year, more than usual, a pastor and I discussed a rare topic, what the Bible says about money. You learned how to use AI in your real estate investing and when not to. We had a few episodes about that. But above all the shows this year, they were about you, probably more than any other year that we've had here. I did more listener question episodes where I answered your questions as you wrote in, and I also had more listeners come right onto the show and tell me how this show has personally built their wealth. And of course, this year, I got to meet more of you in person when I served as a faculty member on the terrific real estate guys Investor Summit to see and I got to meet you personally for more than just a handshake. The event was set up so that chances are you had dinner with me as well. So rather than this show being a one way chat from me to you this year was more of a dialog between you and I and more two way communication. A lot of new topics are coming for next year, both me teaching and some great guests. If there's something on the show that you'd like to hear more of or less of, let us know. Write into us or use your voice to tell us either way you can do that. At get rich education.com/contact, let us know what you want to hear more of or less of. Do you like shorter term tactics like when and how to increase the rent? Or do you like mid range tactics like how to constantly do cash out refinances and get a tax free windfall from your properties every year. Or do you like more of the long term strategies like specifically how you profit from inflation? Let us know what you like again, at get rich education.com/contact, now, even if you're listening 10 years. Years from now, which I know you very well. May, I'm going to break down next year's home price appreciation forecast, but I'll do it in a way where you'll learn how to analyze a market for all time coming up. It's gre 2026, national home price appreciation forecast. Learn the future to the exact percent. First listen to this from Freedom family investments and Ridge lending group, because I'm a client of both myself and they can help you. I'm your host. Keith Weinhold

Keith Weinhold 10:29

you know, most people think they're playing it safe with their liquid money, but they're actually losing savings accounts and bonds don't keep up when true inflation eats six or 7% of your wealth. Every single year I invest my liquidity with FFI freedom family investments in their flagship program. Why fixed 10 to 12% returns have been predictable and paid quarterly. There's real world security backed by needs based real estate like affordable housing, Senior Living and health care. Ask about the freedom flagship program. When you speak to a freedom coach there, and that's just one part of their family of products, they've got workshops, webinars and seminars designed to educate you before you invest. Start with as little as 25k and finally, get your money working as hard as you do. Get started at Freedom, family, investments.com/gre, or send a text now it's 1-937-795-8989, yep, text their freedom coach, directly. Again, 1-937-795-8989,

Speaker 2 11:40

the same place where I get my own mortgage loans is where you can get yours. Ridge lending group and MLS, 42056, they provided our listeners with more loans than anyone because they specialize in income properties. They help you build a long term plan for growing your real estate empire with leverage. Start your prequel and even chat with President Caeli Ridge personally. While it's on your mind, start at Ridge lending group.com that's Ridge lending group.com

Robert Kiyosaki 12:14

this is our Rich Dad, Poor Dad. Author Robert Kiyosaki. Listen to get rich education with Keith Weinhold. And there is, I respect Kate. He's a very strong, smart, bright young man.

Keith Weinhold 12:35

Welcome back to get rich education. It's episode 586 the last show of the year. I'm your host. Keith Weinhold, I am proud to present to you in this segment of the show gre 2026, national home price appreciation forecast, where I use my insight and experience so that you'll learn the exact percent that national home prices will either appreciate or depreciate next year. It's the fifth consecutive year that we're doing this. I nailed the first three spot on and then this year happened. I'll get to reviewing my track record, total accountability. First understand something, real estate values have never crashed in your entire lifetime, even if you're 90 years old, to grab eyeballs, slack jawed, tick tock. Call them crash talk. Economists keep making awful predictions about a housing price crash, and none of them have been worse than one that published last month in Newsweek, which outlines a as it's called, correction worse than 2008 and says national home prices will fall 50% five zero, starting as soon as next year. That's absurd, and I can't believe that a respectable publication would platform a view from an analyst like that, and I'm not going to call out that Doomsayer analyst's name. That's not my style. I'm sure you can find it that crash is about as likely as one social media post changing your political affiliation later today. Look, doomsayers don't care about you. They make dire predictions because they care about them. It elevates their clicks, their followers and their name recognition, and they never hang around to follow up on that prediction, but it harms you, because you miss out on the equity gains, and that's the real damage. In fact, this particular analyst also called for this year to have the second largest home price decline since World War Two. Well, national home prices have only fallen twice in that time period. In fact, going further back. Back to the 1930s Great Depression. They've only fallen twice. Yes, that means home prices have risen every single year since the 1930s except for two periods, a small decline of less than 1% around 1990 and then, of course, the severe downturn from the housing bubble and great recession from 2007 to 2011 or 2012 that's where prices dropped in total, 25 to 26% from peak to trough. Now why do I say that that period around 2008 was not a housing price crash. Well, because it wasn't. Instead, it was a slow bleed. The definition of financial crash is a sudden, sharp and widespread drop in prices. That's the definition. Well that can happen in some other asset classes like stocks or Bitcoin or perhaps even precious metals, but not real estate. It is neither sudden nor sharp. The worst year, 2008 saw home prices drop 12% in that one year and some of the other years bracketing it, home prices fell three to 4% in each of those years. So then during this time period of price attrition, during the global financial crisis, each month, real estate values fell just a few tenths of 1% maybe half of 1% or even one full percent, not a crash, a slow bleed. This means that it took about five years for values to fall, a total of near 25% I mean, that makes it really clear that it's not a crash. And again, this period was about 2007 to 2012 don't get me wrong, it was bad. I was a real estate investor both before and during 2008 but to call it a crash is hyperbolic, and that is because words mean things. I think a lot of media consumers get so conditioned to mass media sensationalism that they've forgotten what a crash even means. At some point, it begins to bend our very lexicon back around 2007 I remember I frequently checked a website called implode meter. Yeah, that's the name of it. It tracks, failing banks. I looked the other day and implodemeter.com is still in existence, even though it's not nearly as spicy as it used to be during the GFC, because lending has been pretty stable for a long time, and loans are well and carefully underwritten. So home prices are unusually stable over time, because, in a sense, housing is not a normal market. It is slow, regulated, credit driven, and it's emotionally sticky, even though rental property is less emotional. Well, the values of one to four unit property are tied to primary residence values, and that's where the emotion exists. So if you put all those together, you get prices that creep upward most years and rarely fall at all. Nationally. The real estate market moves too gradually to be crash susceptible. It is the place for real wealth building values also are not going to double annually if you want to scroll for dopamine hits from the couch. Well, you can do that with a prediction market like call she or in crypto with altcoins, while your real estate keeps leveraging dollars in a stable way in the background. That's how you can think about it. All right, so we've established since the Great Depression, home values have fallen twice and once substantially. Well, right now, home prices are up about 2% year over year. Most places have appreciated, especially the more affordable markets. Not only has home price growth been slow, though, rent growth has been slow as well. Single Family rents are up 1% per totality. Apartment rents are down one to 2% per Zumper. But back to our focus today, forecasting national home prices. Everything we're discussing is nominal price change, meaning not inflation adjusted, and it's single family homes up to fourplexes. Well, as we use context to build up to the big reveal today, where I'll tell you the exact percent that home prices will rise or fall next year. Could 2008 happen again any time soon? Let's isolate that out. It's important to look at history rather than. Having some uninformed hunch in both periods with price attrition around 1990 and 2008 these two falls have some attributes in common. So let's look at that. What led to these rare falls in home prices, irresponsible lending, forced selling, a vacancy issue and overbuilding. All four of those factors were in place during those two periods now leading up to 1990 the irresponsible lending was on the commercial side. That was the savings and loan crisis, but it did trickle into the residential market, and then in 2008 it was on the residential side. But of all four of those factors, none of them are in place today. Zero borrowers are strongly underwritten because they've got those full documentation loans, and virtually no one is forced to sell in a fire sale. In fact, homeowners still have these record equity positions of about 300k fewer than 3% of homeowners have a negative equity position, and there is no vacancy issue. Because, in fact, we've been under building. We'll look at that. So for next year, no substantial price of drawdown is coming. None's expected. We can isolate that out. Since I was investing directly in real estate through 2008 I know what happened is that when people walked away from properties, they did so because the economy got rough, their variable rate mortgages rose, they couldn't make their payments, or they just had no motivation to make their payments because they were underwater and had zero protective equity. In a lot of cases, it's almost impossible for that to happen today, homeowners can make their payments, and they're motivated to do so because they have that erstwhile equity to protect, like I said last week, through the Census Bureau data and realtor.com we know a couple things. Four in 10 homeowners have no mortgage at all. They own their property free and clear. Among the group with mortgages, 70% of borrowers still have a mortgage rate locked in at under 5% and blending those together for you means that then 82% of borrowers either have no mortgage or they've got a rate under 5% this translates to really affordable payments, along with The protective equity, even if inflation heats up again, it still cannot touch a borrower's mortgage payment amount because it is fixed. As we're leading up to the big reveal of next year's number, we're about to look at affordability, supply, demand and the effect of mortgage rates on prices. Of course, that word affordability, that has been the most central word to home buying for a couple years now, affordability will improve in three main ways. If either home prices fall, mortgage rates fall, or wages rise, it takes at least one of those three things, the good news is that this year, wages have been rising faster than both stated inflation and home prices. Wages have been rising close to 4% that looks to continue at least into the early part of next year. Well that improved affordability allows home prices to move up, and it gives room for rents to move up as well. Now when it comes to mortgage rates, if you're new to listening to me, it will be groundbreaking for you to realize that today, mortgage rates are low, and increases to mortgage rates usually lead to increases in home prices, not decreases. If you're new here, both of those facts might leave you saying what I thought it was the opposite. How can that be? I won't spend much time on this because longtime listeners already know these two things, but they do go into the forecast the long term 30 year fixed rate mortgage averages 7.7% per Freddie Mac thirst, that set goes back to 1971 and rates are lower than that now, and mortgage rates have risen 1% or more seven different times since 1994 and home prices increased all Seven times right alongside those rising mortgage rates. In fact, when rates more than doubled in 2022 what happened? Home prices soared to their highest appreciation year in a long time. It reinforced this so, yes, way higher rates equaled way. Higher prices. It's not that one directly causes the other. This is correlation versus causation. It's because rate increases confirm that the economy is doing well. I have discussed that extensively in previous episodes, so mortgage rates actually don't have that much to do with home prices, and that's why it is hardly going into the forecast for next year. I'll tell you what trying to forecast mortgage rates to then use that to predict home prices, that is a fantastic way to waste your time. Now, 1x factor that could make that different for next year is that this President, he imposes his will to make rates low no matter what. So even if the economy is good, which typically leads to higher rates, wholesale push to make rates low, and that's an artificial phenomenon. Wouldn't that make home prices boom if we had a strong economy and low rates? The fact that affordability is still historically low today, though, we appear to be off the bottom. Affordability is still historically low today, that has less to do with mortgage rates than most people think, since, again, rates are low when they're in the low sixes, like they currently are. Instead, affordability is soured, because over the long term, decades, wages haven't kept up with true inflation. That's what's really going on with affordability and what everybody misses, and because affordability is still strained, home prices cannot rise a lot, say 10 or 12% next year. That can't happen on a national basis next year, now, a bill is advancing through Congress now to make housing more affordable. It's got bipartisan support relaxing zoning requirements in such a bill that could help build more homes, but if the government tries to help by making access to loans easier, that is going to lead to even higher prices and really will not help with affordability beyond the short term. In fact, just this month, the Fed has resumed QE quantitative easing. And that effectively means that it is ramping up the number of dollars being printed. And these are just more dollars in existence coming in to chase real estate and every other assets values higher we look at the employment picture. Although unemployment has been ticking up lately, it is still low at under 5% what about housing supply versus demand? And future supply versus demand? Well, this is basic econ and it will totally affect future prices. Actually visited the home of the father of economics, Adam Smith in Scotland this year, the man that nearly invented the supply demand concept starting with supply. I think anyone in real estate knows that generally, over six months of housing supply is too much. Under six months is too little. Six months is sort of that balanced point. What does that really mean? Well, months of supply is how long it would take to sell all the homes currently for sale if no new listings came on the market. All right, that's all that means. Well, currently, that level is 4.2 months that is low, and that puts some upward pressure on prices as well. Another way to think about it is with the active listing count of single family homes and condos. All this means is the number of homes currently for sale and available to buy right now. That's what active listing count means when you see that statistic out there? Well, one and a half to 2 million is the normal level of units needed to adequately house our growing population, for single family homes and condos. Well, that figure bottomed out in 2022 and it's only hovered around one or 1.1 million for a few months now, we are under supplied, and it takes a long time to build our way out of it. Now, apartment buildings are a different story. They are oversupplied, but again, today, we're here focused on the future price direction of one to four unit properties. So that's supply, not as tight as it was, but still on the tight side, and then demand. Where is demand coming from? It comes from us. There's more of us. As our population keeps growing, there is a lot of housing demand coming. Not only is there pent up demand from those trying to afford a home as soon as they can, but more broadly. Demographically, I will point back to that period where there was a surge of us births from 1990 to 2010 there were over 4 million births every single one of those years, births peaked in 2007 if you add 40 years to that, because 40 years is now the average age of the first time homebuyer. That's still a mind blowing figure to me, 40 years the average age of the first time homebuyer. You add that to 2007 that peak birth rate year, and this demand won't even peak until about 2047

Speaker 2 30:36

and this doesn't even include additions from immigration, demand, demand, demand, propping up prices for decades, but for next year, improved affordability, which is expected that boosts the demand for those that have the capacity to pay. Well, considering everything we've covered, I'm about to reveal the number for next year. But first, I mean, gosh, don't you wish everyone actually followed up on their past forecasts, like I'm about to I don't think I've ever seen a price crash predictor follow up, because they're always wrong. Well, what is the track record of get rich, education, home, price appreciation forecasts. It's the fifth straight year I'm doing this, and I always release the forecast in the final days of the year in anticipation of the coming year, just like you and I are doing together now. For 2022 I said that prices would rise nine to 10% the year ended, and they came in at 10% 2023 a lot of people said home prices would fall because they had just seen a terrific run up. I said a price fall would not happen, largely due to that jaw droppingly low supply that we had then. I said zero, there wouldn't be any change. They came in at exactly zero. There was no price change in 2023 for 2024 I forecast 4% they came in at exactly 4% this is all documented. You can go back and listen to those episodes. They're all near year end. So yes, three straight years, I nailed it to the exact percent. How about this year? Just before the year began? Do you remember what my forecast figure was from listening here about a year ago, it was 5% home price appreciation. The year is not over yet, and real estate statistics move pretty slowly. Figures lag, but we pretty much know where it's going to end up. And as we look at this same stat set that I consistently use, which is the NARS national median existing single family home price, it is 2.2% as of late in the year, and it's almost certainly going to end up at 2% appreciation. So I would call that a miss, probably not a terrible call, but far enough apart to call that a miss, 5% forecast versus 2% actual for this year. That's the track record. So before I reveal the number for next year, in the last four I've nailed three of them spot on, and why was appreciation less than I expected for this year? Well, a few reasons. One of them is that inflationary pressure from tariffs was postponed. That Tariff Schedule was changed more times than anyone could have possibly forecast, and affordability stayed stubbornly low too. And here we go for 2026 how much home price appreciation or depreciation do I expect? Well, I haven't said this in any of the previous forecasts, because it's the easiest thing to say, and I often avoid saying the easiest thing, but this is just what I see coming, and that is, I expect more of the same. It's the first time I've said more of the same, which is drumroll here, 2% home price appreciation for next year. No wild figure or hyperbolic material here, in order to attract attention that is my best target for the truth, I'm here to do my best to be accurate and help you make the most informed decision, 2% for next year. So a 500k property today should cost you about 10,000 more dollars next year, and as we know, with a figure like 2% which is less appreciation than the long run historic 5% or so, with this 2% appreciation on new purchases, you leverage that five to one with your 80% loan, and you get a 10% return on your down payment. And you add in the other four ways real estate pays to your 10% leverage appreciation and at historic norms, you can end up with a 29% total ROI. That's realistic. I outlined the math of that in an earlier episode this year when I discussed how real estate pays five ways in a slow market, there you have it, 2% forecast home price appreciation for next year. If you want the charts that support the forecast and more, there's a way for you to get a hold of that, and also the best real estate maps, stories and investment opportunities that you won't see in any headlines. They are all in my free weekly newsletter. The newsletter also gives you access to my free real estate pays five ways. Video, course, that is it. GRE letter.com Get it all at one easy place. Gre letter.com I look forward to talking to you in the new year. I'm Keith Weinhold, don't quit your daydrem

Speaker 3 36:06

nothing on this show should be considered specific, personal or professional advice. Please consult an appropriate tax, legal, real estate, financial or business professional for individualized advice. Opinions of guests are their own. Information is not guaranteed. All investment strategies have the potential for profit or loss. The host is operating on behalf of get rich Education LLC, exclusively.

Keith Weinhold 36:34

The preceding program was brought to you by your home for wealth building, GetRichEducation.com

Direct download: GREepisode586_.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 4:00am EST

Mon, 22 December 2025

Keith discusses the Federal Trade Commission's (FTC) new regulations on rental pricing transparency, following a settlement with Greystar.

Legendary author, Doug Casey, joins the conversation to argue that the Federal Reserve is waging a quiet war on the middle class.

Casey explains that by creating trillions of new fiat dollars to push interest rates lower, the Fed fuels inflation, which erodes savings, distorts markets, and quietly reduces the average American’s standard of living.

He warns of an impending economic downturn due to inflation and government debt.

Resources:

Find the FTC article here.

Visit internationalman.com to read Doug Casey’s weekly articles and watch his “Doug Casey’s Take” videos on YouTube.

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584: The K-Shaped Economy for Real Estate Investors: Capital Compounds. Labor Doesn't.

Complete episode transcript:

Keith Weinhold 0:01

welcome to GRE. I'm your host. Keith Weinhold, the Fed keeps escalating their quiet war against the middle class. I'm talking about it with one of the most influential financial figures of the past century. Today, also what the recent FTC decision on rents means to real estate on get rich education.

Speaker 1 0:25

Since 2014 the powerful get rich education podcast has created more passive income for people than nearly any other show in the world. This show teaches you how to earn strong returns from passive real estate investing in the best markets without losing your time being a flipper or landlord. Show Host Keith Weinhold rights for both Forbes and Rich Dad advisors, and delivers a new show every week since 2014 there's been millions of listener downloads of 188 world nations. He has a list show guests include top selling personal finance author Robert Kiyosaki. Get rich education can be heard on every podcast platform, plus it has its own dedicated Apple and Android listener phone apps build wealth on the go with the get rich education podcast. Sign up now for the get rich education podcast, or visit get rich education.com

Corey Coates 1:11

You're listening to the show that has created more financial freedom than nearly any show in the world. This is get rich education.

Keith Weinhold 1:27

Welcome to GRE I'm your host. Keith Weinhold, let's get right into it, as there's a lot to cover here on our last big show before Christmas. Briefly before we get to the Fed's quiet war against the middle class the Federal Trade Commission just fired off a warning shot to landlords, and here's the translation about what this means to you, advertise your real all in rent amount with mandatory fees included in that amount or expect company and by company, the FTC means attorneys, paperwork and a long headache, and I'll tell you why I think this is a good thing. But really, first what this is all about is that it stems from the antecedent settlement with the massive global real estate company greystar, about transparent pricing. You might know that greystar is the massive global real estate company. They specialize in rental housing. In fact, greystar is the largest apartment operator in the entire US. They're in about 250 markets. The FTC cracked down on greystars add on fees, those fees added on to the rent amount that aren't clear and transparent right from the beginning. Now, in their case, it's things like Package Concierge charges, valet, trash service fees and some of these other line items that magically appear after a renter has already emotionally moved into a unit. Now for your rentals, they might be other things like Pest Control fees, gym fees, pet fees, utility add ons and notice that I use the word might, because clarification is still being sought here, but suffice to say, the least that you should know is really three things, advertise a rental price that excludes mandatory charges and that could be a violation of the law. So then state the total cost of renting the unit up front, no fine print gymnastics. Secondly, do a compliance check. You need to review your ads to confirm that they honestly convey your rental unit's price. That includes working with third party marketing vendors like Zillow or Facebook marketplace to see if they accurately state the all in price, because if they understate the price, it's still your problem. And thirdly, know that the FTC is reviewing harmful practices in the rental housing market. They'll take action against landlords that try to hide mandatory fees, so no hide and seek. And the FTC resource is in our show notes, and I sent it to you in last week's newsletter as well, if you want to read it, all my take here is that this type of transparency is a good thing. I mean, come on, we all know how annoying it is if, say, an airline states like, Hey, we've got prices to this destination. You can fly there for as low as $200 Yeah, but what if it's a 28 hour, four layover journey to fly 300 miles? Okay? What about buying an event ticket to go to a music concert and say you've already got 10 minutes wrapped up in this, but they don't show you the final price with all the fees until you've already invested that 10 minutes a. Then you learn about this in your shopping cart. So that type of thing is deceptive, all right. Well, what this FTC case does is it eliminates that effect in the rental housing market. So if you're a landlord, your competitors shouldn't be able to advertise base rents minus fees against your unit that appears higher priced than it's really not. And then for renters, I mean, the clarity helps expedite their search process. So this lets good assets compete on real value, and that is good business. Now, as far as the Fed controlling the economy, Jerome Powell announced interest rate cuts both last year and some more again this year, and though the effect isn't immediate, mortgage rates do come down with them. Mortgage rates have also fallen this year because the yield spread premium is lower. And you know what the prevailing sentiment is among a lot of armchair economists, it is squarely this, you ain't seen nothing for cuts yet. People say, Oh, watch, once Trump gets his guy in there in May, meaning that's when the newly appointed Fed chair is in power. Oh, you're really going to see some giant rate cuts then, yeah. I mean, a lot of people talk about this like it's certainly coming. They say then the Fed funds rate is going to go way down, meaning mortgage rates are then going to go way down, meaning that home prices are therefore going to soar next year. Well, all that could happen, but it is nowhere close to the certainty camp for everything to respond exactly that way. As you know, as a listener here, paradoxically, mortgage rates have little to do with home prices. Look at history over hunches. In fact, it might be more likely that those things don't happen and don't all break exactly that way, then the probability that they do, and that quickly gets into conjecture territory. As we know, lowering rates is bad too, because it signals that a weak economy needs the help. Typically. What could be different this next time. Well, whether we're in a good or a bad economy, Trump still wants lower rates, and he really imposes his will on the situation.

Keith Weinhold 7:30

We're about to bring in the author of a new book called The preparation. It's about preparing for the economic future. A lot of the book is mostly for young men and their parents, but we'll speak to both females and males. Today is the middle class both worse off and in a way, better off today than they were a generation or two ago. Talk to your grandparents. They didn't pay for a college education. They didn't get one. They rarely ate out at restaurants. They didn't have a smartphone, which is now practically mandatory to even exist. Today, people are paying for all of that, so no wonder that prospective first time homebuyers almost seem to be going extinct. Let's meet this week's guest.

Keith Weinhold 8:21

Are we going to get a painful financial reset in the form of runaway inflation, a market crash or something else? We'll answer that before we're done today, the Fed is engaged in a quiet war against the middle class. They are going to create trillions more Fiat dollars to lower interest rates further and create inflation that's according to today's guest. He is the International man himself, a legendary and generationally popular author, and he does a lot more than that. He's back with us for a sobering look at this today. Hey, welcome in. Doug Casey,

Doug Casey 8:57

Thanks, Keith. It's nice to be here with you, although care for me is in Buenos Aires, Argentina, where I spend a good part of the year.

Keith Weinhold 9:05

Such a nice place, good year round weather. There. A piece you recently wrote is titled, The Fed's quiet war against the middle class. The Fed recently announced that they're stopping Qt, which basically means they're stopping the destruction of dollars and opening the floodgates to print dollars. You've been known to say that the level of interest rates is the most important single indicator of an economy, and the Fed has made several quarter point cuts over the last year plus, although the President is supposed to stay independent of Fed influence. Oh my gosh, he has been more vocal than any other president ever over how badly he wants low rates. What are your thoughts with regard to all this Doug?

Doug Casey 9:53

Well, the Fed, which most people have been taught to believe, is part of the cosmic firmament. Right? It should be abolished. It serves no useful purpose. The Fed is an engine of inflation. It's what creates Federal Reserve notes. It's an engine of inflation and purely destructive, and it's used by the government to finance itself. So that's the first thing I've got to say. And they don't know what interest rates should be. Neither does Trump neither does anybody else. That's for the market to determine right and interest rates are set by the amount of savings that's done by the people and the amount of borrowing that's done by other people. The problem is with the Fed printing up lots and lots of money, which they are through the banking system, it makes it rather foolish to be a saver. In other words, if you produce more than you consume, which is something everybody should do, you want to save the difference. That's how you become wealthy. But if they destroy the currency with inflation, it's pointless to save, and if there's no savings, there's no capital to lend. This is why we're sliding off a slippery slope in the direction of a third world country where there's no savings, where the money's no good, it's a real problem. I think the average American, despite increases in technology that we've benefited from over many years, the average American has found his standard of living go down a lot, and it's basically because of the destruction of the currency that makes it impossible for him to save and get ahead of things, and results in wild and crazy moves in the stock markets and the real estate markets and the interest rate markets, where things become unpredictable. So everybody's being turned into a speculator, whether they like it or not, and frankly, we're headed towards a real reckoning in the US and in the world generally. So my approach at this point is to hold on to your hat, because we're in for rough running in the years

Keith Weinhold 12:14

to come. To create low rates, the Fed basically needs to create trillions of new Fiat dollars. Tell us about how that works.

Doug Casey 12:25

Well, it's a question of the supply and demand of money. You've got two things happening. Number one, when the Fed has quantitative easing, as they call it, which basically means inflating the dollar. Quantitative easing, or QE is just a nice word for inflating the dollar. They're increasing the supply of dollars out there. You increase the supply of dollars, the price of money goes down in the short run, but in the long run, the value of the dollar also goes down. And nobody's going to lend money if they can't get more in interest than it's being depreciated at. So you've got these two forces fighting against each other making for an unstable system. That's why I say that look before 1933 and when Roosevelt took gold out of the dollar, or in fact, before 1913 when the Federal Reserve was created, before that, there was no central bank. There was no Federal Reserve in the US. Money was just a medium of exchange and a store of value. It wasn't a political commodity, which it is now. Today, everybody is looking at the government to do something to make a decision to raise rates. Some people want them higher or lower them. Some people want them lower. But this is for the market to decide. It shouldn't be a political decision.

Keith Weinhold 13:53

Low rates, which most think are coming, produce an inflationary environment, which then means that longer term, there need to be new higher rates in order to combat that.

Doug Casey 14:05

Well, what we've got is a situation where conflicting advice and beliefs are causing rates, and indeed, most of the economy, to go up and down like an elevator with a lunatic at the controls. And actually, that's a very good analogy.

Keith Weinhold 14:22

And low rates to your earlier point, Doug, they don't encourage anyone to save. And you know what? Government policy doesn't encourage anyone to save either in times of crisis, like, look what happened during covid. Oh my gosh, if these people can't go to work and generate an income, they don't have any savings, obviously. So then let's go ahead and intervene even more and send them stimulus checks, basically a bailout. So low rates discourage anyone from saving, but so does our policy, because every time there's a big catastrophe, oh, they just come in with a safety net anyway. That's Part. The reason why we have such a problem with capital formation of the average American today?

Doug Casey 15:04

Well, it's actually worse than that, because over generations, a lot of debt has built up in the country. In other words, to maintain your standard of living, a lot of people have borrowed. They've done this either by taking the savings of past generations and borrowing it or mortgaging their personal futures. Either way, look, if you and I went out and borrowed a million dollars today, we could raise our standard of living artificially, sure, for the next year, but at the end of that year, we have to pay back the million dollars to lost interest, and that artificial rise in our standard of living will result in a very real decline in our standard of living. And a great deal of the borrowing that's been done to stimulate the economy through the banking system is for consumption, not for production. In other words, a lot of the borrowing is not to create new technologies and new infrastructure and new capital goods to create more wealth. A lot of it's just stuff that you wind up. People are borrowing things to fill their basements and their garages with more junk, consumer borrowing, borrowing for vacations, borrowing for to go to music, shows, all kinds of things. This has become a habit in the US, right? So let's look. It's going to end very badly. It's going to end and is ending as we speak, actually, in what I call the greater depression. It's going to be what we're looking at here, largely because of monetary manipulation, but also because taxes have gone up, up, up, up from zero level. Basically, in 1913 there were no income taxes in the US, the US government lived exclusively on minimal tariffs and excise duties. But today, there's right and they're very high, high levels of inflation, high levels of borrowing. So I think we're coming to the end of the road, as far as that's concerned. And it's bad news. Of course, most of the real wealth in the world, when you have a financial collapse, when you have a depression, most of the real wealth still exists. It just changes ownership, that's all so you want to position yourself so that you're not too adversely affected by what's coming

Keith Weinhold 17:31

this inflation and more coming inflation pumping up the asset values of the asset owners and then ruining the lifestyles of those in the lower middle class and making them trend down lower since they spend a greater proportion of their income on everyday needs like clothing and food, which is a small proportion of people that are well off and the poor don't have the assets to benefit from that inflation. And you know, Doug, it wasn't until I read your recent article that I realized something that initially the fed only had one mandate, price stability, and then later they added that maximum employment was their second mandate. I didn't realize that. So really, it's been an expansion of what they're paying attention to, and a de facto expansion of their powers and influence and control.

Doug Casey 18:23

Well, actually, they have a third mandate now, which is to control long term interest rates, to prop up the mortgage market, to prop up the real estate market. Because, as you know, the real estate market floats on a sea of debt, and if you can't get a mortgage, if you can't borrow, you can't buy real estate, or, for that matter, you can't sell it. So this makes it a very unstable situation, and most people are unaware of the fact that before the last depression, the longest mortgage you could get was five years, and that was with a 20% down payment. So things have changed a lot since then, and the more debt you use to finance anything, the more unstable things become. And the fact that things have become so unstable, and the average guy's standard of living has been sinking, and he has more credit card debt, more mortgage debt, more automobile debt. Used to be paid cash for a car, then was financed for two years and five and seven, and then it was leased where you never even owned it. I mean, this is, this is a trend that's coming to an end at this point, so it's going to be quite a comeuppance for people.

Keith Weinhold 19:42

I think long term financing and the easing of getting financing makes the cost of anything higher. There's probably no greater example than that of what has happened with college tuition over the decades. But you know Doug, when we talk about this centrally planned economy. Rather than letting free market forces take over, I love it. I just absolutely love it when the answer to a problem is actually doing less than what you're currently doing, let go of the reins, rather than the Fed controlling interest rates. If there were a free market doing it, you would have bank loan rates that couldn't become too high, or else they wouldn't attract borrowers. So rates would naturally fall, and then you also couldn't have bank loan rates that are too low, because you've got to compensate the bank for bad borrower risk. So rates would come up, and they would find some natural level, kind of to the point that you made earlier. There would be a natural set point price discovery. That's how I think of a free market working for interest rates rather than announcements by a Fed chair.

Doug Casey 20:51

Well, you're right. The problem is that the high government officials, the elite, if you would, think they know best and try to manipulate things, but they don't know best, quite frankly. And one other comment that you made, which I think is very appropriate, is college tuitions. For years, I've recommended that young people forget about college. It's a huge misallocation of your time and money, you wind up studying things well after you are through partying and drinking and chasing the opposite sex, and the things you learn about have no practical application in the world. And I'm not talking about learning history and the classics and mathematics and science, okay? Those are valuable things. Most of what people are taking in college today are hobby subjects, if you would, or things that are fun to learn in your spare time, but you shouldn't burden yourself with a lifetime of debt to do those things and get a worthless degree. Everybody has a degree and with grade inflation, they're a waste of time. That's listen. That's why I wrote this book with Matt Smith. Is my podcast. It's called the preparation. It's on Amazon, and it explains talking about your standard of living, which is what this is all about, really, why it's foolish to go to college today and exactly what especially a young man should do, instead of misallocating The four most valuable vibrant years of his life, sitting behind a desk listening to Marxist leaning professors corrupt you with all kinds of really bad ideas. So that's why we wrote the preparation. And it tells young men exactly what they should do, instead of burdening themselves under hundreds of 1000s of dollars of debt, which can't be discharged and serves no useful purpose, what they've learned in exchange for it. So, I mean, this is one of the one of the things that people should be doing, but not enough are.

Keith Weinhold 23:07

AI changes things fast. I mean, for a four year college graduate today, what you learned as a freshman three or four years ago could quickly be outdated, and that effect just wasn't nearly as great as it was a few decades ago, but if you're listening in the audio only, Doug just held his book called The preparation, which he co authored with Matthew Smith. If this way of thinking resonates with you, here's some actionable things that you can actually do. You're listening to get rich education. Our guest is international man. Doug Casey, when we come back, I'm your host. Keith Weinhold

Keith Weinhold 23:41

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Keith Weinhold 24:52

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Robert Helms 25:23

Hi everybody. t's Robert Allens of the real estate guys radio program. So glad you found Keith Weinhold and get rich education. Don't quit your Daydream.

Keith Weinhold 25:34

Steve, welcome back to get rich Education. I'm your host, Keith Weinhold, we're talking with Doug Casey about how the Fed is quietly intervening and hollowing out the middle class when it comes to interest rates. Since you state about them being the most important indicator for an economy, I think a lot of people don't realize Doug, and maybe you run into this too, that interest rates are not high today. I mean, on the long run, the Fed funds rate averages 4.6% and today it's in the high threes. So they're not actually high today. But with all these crises where we had all this money printing in these low rates, they feel high, but they're not.

Doug Casey 26:22

Well, you're quite correct. The question is, at what rate is the dollar losing value? The official US government figures say, Well, I don't know what they say. They vary, and the numbers are jumbled. And I think the general price level in the US, if we were realistic, is going up well over 5% probably closer to 10% you can make that case. Yeah, I think so, because I'm talking to you now from Argentina and for years, the figures were notoriously and outrageously concocted, made up to make people think things weren't as bad as they are. And here in Argentina, we've just had a revolution, actually a peaceful revolution, with replacing the Peronist government with a man named Javier Malay. It's probably the most unusual and most important election, believe it or not, in world history, because Malay was elected here in Argentina on the platform of basically getting rid of the government disbanding it. In other words, Elon Musk's Doge, but on steroids times 10, and things have gotten a lot better here because of that. And it's too bad that Doge has been eliminated in the US, because a lot of people don't understand that the government doesn't really produce anything at all. All it does is take taxes from you and pass that money around to other people with a lot skimmed off the top to do things that entrepreneurs would probably, or certainly, I'd say, do by themselves, and they make it worse by printing up money to give to people to do those things, and borrowing money, which acts as an albatross around everybody's neck. So I'd make the case that I'm not promoting either the Republicans or the Democrats, I'd kind of say a pox on both their houses. They're just two sides of the same coin. What I think we ought to have is a much smaller, much much smaller government. But are we going to get one? No, we're not getting it right now, because I think a lot of people aren't aware of the fact that the government is running 2 trillion, $3 trillion per year deficits, and those deficits are going up, not down. So where's that money coming from? Well, most of it's being created out of thin air. It's being inflated through the banking system. So the prognosis is not terribly good. Now, along the way, of course, people have hid in real estate, made a lot of money in real estate. Real estate prices have gone up faster than retail inflation has gone up. Yeah, but I'm asking myself whether it's not possible that the real estate market could come unglued at this point, because it floats on a sea of debt. What do you think, Keith, do you have any fears about that?

Keith Weinhold 29:27

Homeowners are in great shape today. They have record equity positions. They're not going to walk away. Many of them are still locked into these really low mortgage rates, so they're in really good shape. This is something very different from the 2008 global financial crisis, when you had irresponsible borrowers that had negative equity positions and an oversupply of housing so they could move out and get something cheaper. Today, if you move out in the great situation that you're in with your low mortgage rate and a high equity position, you'd lose your high equity position and. Might have to go pay rent that's higher somewhere else, so I don't see a lot of real estate appreciation coming over the next year or two, but I don't see any impending crash, largely due to that condition, there's not distress in the market.

Doug Casey 30:17

Are you worried about the fact that most local and state governments are on the ragged edge of insolvency and might be raising their real estate taxes and of course, insurance costs seem to be going up a lot faster than most other costs as well. Right now, utility costs are relatively low because oil and gas prices are low, but that could change too. I mean, is there anything that could take the real estate train off the rails?

Keith Weinhold 30:47

Not that I see. In fact, real estate values have only fallen substantially one time since World War Two, and that was during the 2008 global financial crisis, when we had conditions that are largely the opposite today. That's back when we had an oversupply and an irresponsible borrower that had negative equity so they wanted to walk away, and that created the down drain. To your point, yes, I do see property taxes continuing to increase, but because values aren't increasing as much, they would have to increase the mill rate to get further increases, and then most of the big insurance increases, many feel they are done. They had to come up. Because with inflation, the replacement cost of a property, if you would have a loss, rose and increased that way. So because we're still supply challenge in a lot of places, I see prices holding up but not appreciating like 10% anytime soon, and that's due to an affordability constraint. I don't see how they could possibly do that. And when we talk about that average person Doug, that person trying to make their mortgage payments or their rent payments, I was talking on a recent episode about the K shaped economy, I think it's something that we often visualize in our mind. You see the upper branch of the K rising, the lower branch of the k falling, which is emblematic of this hollowing out of the middle class. But I recently saw it graphically represented, where you have the capital share of income going up for people over the decades. That used to be 5050, between capital share of income and labor share of income. Back 60 years ago, it was 5050, but now, with this K shaped divergence, one's capital share of income is about 57% today, and their labor share of income is only about 43% today. And it's kind of sad. I sort of hate to say it out loud, but it's like, hard work just does not pay off, like it used to. Much of this due to inflation pumping up asset values.

Doug Casey 32:52

Well, I understand what you're saying, and I think you're correct, because there's an old saw. They say the rich get richer while the poor get poorer, and that's kind of what this K shaped economy is telling us. You've got the super rich in the top 1% or 1/10 of 1% that are becoming Ultra double wealthy, and the guy at the bottom, well, his social security taxes have risen from almost nothing to 15% of his wages, and it's a real problem. And it's said that the members of Gen Z can't afford to buy a house today as well. So what do you do about this? Well, my suggestion is, if possible, you don't want to get a job working for somebody else. If at all possible, you've got to work for yourself as an entrepreneur. That's the first thing. It's very hard to get wealthy working for somebody else. The best is to work for yourself, but in order to do that, you have to train yourself with lots of skills and lots of knowledge. And I'm not sure if people are doing that to the degree they ought to either. So I don't know how this is going to end. And of course, you mentioned earlier, artificial intelligence and robotics are tied up hand in glove with artificial intelligence. It's clear that within five years, we'll have robots that may not look entirely like people, but can do almost anything that a human being can do, and this is going to put a lot of pressure on people that don't have special skills, especially with artificial intelligence being programmed into these super competent robots. So the whole world is changing right before our very eyes. Right now,

Keith Weinhold 34:39

when we talk about the middle class struggle. I probably follow the housing market more closely than you do. The NAR recently gave us the latest statistic. Two years ago, the average age of the first time homebuyer was aged 35 last year, it rose to 38 this year, it's now 40 just the average. Age of the first time homebuyer. So in high cost areas, that could very well be 45 I mean, people are getting gray hair before they make a down payment for this middle class that's trying to get into the ownership class.

Doug Casey 35:13

And the further back you go, the younger the age right people were buying houses at So, I mean, it used to be people would try to buy a house right out of school. Frankly, that's out of the question today.

Keith Weinhold 35:27

Yeah, I sure don't remember those days myself, but Yeah, it sure was substantially younger just a couple decades ago. Well, Doug, where are we going with all this? I mean, does a reset eventually happen with either runaway inflation? Do you think that happens first, or some sort of market crash, or is it something else? I mean, what cataclysmic act is likely to happen first?

Doug Casey 35:52

Well, look, I hate to be too gloom and doomy, because everybody, first of all, generally speaking, trends in motion stay in motion, and everything has been maybe gradually descending standard of living wise, but the economy's held together, and we haven't had any catastrophic collapse. Well, almost in 2008 and a couple other times, but I think we're headed for one. So what should you do about it? I would say, consume less if you possibly can, and save what you can, if possible, take a second job while it's still possible, to go out and get a second job or found an entrepreneurial activity so that if you lose your job, you've got a backup system. But with the changes in technology and of course, what's happening in robotics and AI are just part of it. You're not going to be able to rely on what you relied on in the past, because the world is changing very, very radically as far as real estate is concerned. Look, I actually own a lot of real estate, but, you know, I've come to the conclusion that at this point I want to treat my house and other real estate, basically as a not so much as an investment to make money, but to store value. That's right, a store of value where I can put some capital aside. I don't want to keep a lot of money in dollars. That doesn't mean I want debt either. That's risky. For many, many years, I've advocated and bought gold and silver because they are money in its most basic form, and it's worked out really well. I started buying gold at about $40 it's at about 4000 today, and I've always treated it, almost always, as a savings vehicle, not as a speculative vehicle, although, if I want to speculate, I speculate in mining stocks, which are a leveraged way of playing gold and silver, the most volatile class of securities on the planet, actually, and I understand that a lot of people today have Robin Hood accounts and are speculating on the stock market, desperately trying to stay ahead of currency debasement and somehow build a nest egg for themselves by speculating in the market. Generally, that's not a good formula for success you're playing against, you know, extremely smart and well capitalized and knowledgeable big boys, and the fact that everybody's doing it is also, in itself, a tip off to the fact the stock market could be at the tippy top right now, I kind of think it is a bubble in the tech stocks. It's tough, Keith, there's not a lot of places to run and hide at this point.

Keith Weinhold 38:39

Price to earnings ratios are really bloated in the s, p5, 100. I'd love to get your thought on this. Doug, if a person can get a 30 year mortgage rate for a rental property where the rent income meets or exceeds the expenses at a mortgage rate between six and 7% should they do that?

Doug Casey 38:57

Look, if you can cover your mortgage a fixed interest rate mortgage 30 years. One thing that you can almost plan your life around is that dollar is going to lose value every year. So the actual value of your debt, your mortgage, is going to go down every year, right? And presumably the rent that you can charge on your house is going to go up every year. So yep, doing it the way I think you're doing it is an excellent plan for slow and steady long term success. Yeah, it makes sense. You're right.

Keith Weinhold 39:30

We actually have some listener questions on the thing that you brought up, which I call inflation profiting when you borrow long term fixed interest rate debt and get to pay it back with more plentiful dollars down the road. Some people don't understand what you just explained. One way I brought it up with my listeners is we'll just look back 30 years ago, in 1995 the average home cost 130k an 80% loan would be 104k so here, 30 years later, that median home costs over 400 K, and you still just owe 104k on the loan. That's the benefit of what I call inflation, profiting on long term fixed interest rate debt. And of course, your tenant would have paid that down to zero as well. But that kind of makes the benefit be more apparent when we look back into the past 30 years. Well, Doug, as we're winding down here, you have any other thoughts about, just say, the average American out there, what they should do with the Fed behaving and controlling the economy like we do. We're talking about the average American, maybe someone with a mortgage, some rental properties, some savings, maybe a 401, K. How do these potential shifts in Fed policy translate into real life consequences and actions for them. Is there anything else?

Doug Casey 40:44

Well, look, don't count on some outside force to kiss everything and make it better. You've got to look out for number one. And as I said before, the way you do that is you should cut back your expenditures every way you can at this point and when you cut back your expenditures, save that money. Now, what do you do with the money that you save? It's not as easy making that recommendation as it was a few years ago, when I was recommending gold, when it was much cheaper than it is. Now it's at $4,000 now look, save money, get an extra job, earn money, cut back your consumption, learn some new skills, because we don't know how things are going to reorient with the immense advances being made through AI and robotics. That's just generalized advice, but that's all you can do, is well and buy real assets. Nothing wrong with buying a house the way you're talking about if you can buy it and the mortgage is cracked with rent. Eventually, I think we're going to see interest rates go back up to the levels that they were in the early 1980s people don't remember this, but the US government was paying 1518, even 20% for its money, and mortgages were, well, 15, 16% it's going to happen again. So I think if you can lock in a mortgage anywhere in here, on a good piece of real estate that covers the mortgage, that's simple, it's doable. Everybody should try to do it. In addition to the other things I mentioned

Keith Weinhold 42:20

in 1981 the 30 year fixed rate mortgage peaked at over 18% to our earlier point about the fact that mortgage rates are actually historically low now so are fed funds rates. Well, Doug, tell us one last time about your new book and then any other resources. If our audience wants to engage with you

Doug Casey 42:40

I do a blog will know who he is. We've had him here on the show twice, yeah, well, he writes there for us every week, and we've got great articles. That's number one. Number two, I do a podcast with Matt Smith every week called Doug Casey's take on youtube.com third, I urge everybody to get this book, which talks about, if you have a grandchild, a son, it talks about why you should not go to college and what you should do exactly instead of going to college. So that's another thing to do. And we have a newsletter that also covers mining stocks, which is where I'm concentrated in at the moment. They're very cheap, very volatile, and one of the few places in the market, and I hate to say this, that offer the potential of 10 to one or more returns in the near future. So I guess those are the areas where you can find out more about me.

Keith Weinhold 43:49

Again, the new book from Doug is called the preparation. It shows a compass on the cover, and then internationalmen.com. Is actually where Doug wrote a piece called The Fed's quiet war against the middle class, which spawned this very conversation right here. Doug, it's been valuable as always. Thanks so much for coming back onto the show.

Doug Casey 44:08

My pleasure. Keith, thank you.

Keith Weinhold 44:16

Yeah, real estate is positioned for price stability. I was actually investing directly in real estate through the 2008 global financial crisis, and I know what happened is that people walked away from properties when the economy got rough and they couldn't make their payments. It is almost impossible for that to happen today. Homeowners can make their payments. Look through Census Bureau data in realtor.com we know a couple things here. Four in 10 homeowners have no mortgage at all. They own the property free and clear. And then among that group with mortgages, 70% of those borrowers still have a mortgage rate locked in at. Under 5% yes, still today I'll amalgamate those for you. This means that 82% of borrowers either have no mortgage or they have a rate under 5% so that is really affordable payments, along with the protective equity and inflation can't touch that principal and interest amount in addition to real estate, Doug Casey is a longtime gold and silver guy. Of course, both of those have sort to fantastic new all time highs this year.

Keith Weinhold 45:34

Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays from me and everyone here at GRE. Next week is another big one. You'll get GRE home price appreciation forecast for next year to the exact percent. I'm Keith Weinhold. Don't quit you daydream.

Speaker 3 45:53

Keith Weinhold 46:21

The preceding program was brought to you by your home for wealth building, get richeducation.com

Direct download: GREepisode585_.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 4:00am EST

Mon, 15 December 2025

Keith discusses the K-shaped economy, where income from capital assets is rising while labor income is declining.

In 1965, 50% of income came from labor and 50% from capital; by 1990, it was 54% and 46%, respectively, and today it's 57% and 43%. Keith emphasizes the importance of how capital compounds over labor and advises on building ownership in real estate and businesses.

Finally, he answers your listener's questions about: agricultural real estate inflation, profiting on mortgage loans, transitioning from accumulation to preservation and a fast-growing state that no one talks about.

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583: "Getting Your Money to Work For You" is a Middle Class Trap

Complete episode transcript:

Keith Weinhold 0:00

Keith, welcome to GRE. I'm your host. Keith Weinhold, capital compounds, labor doesn't realizing this can change allocation decisions for the rest of your life. Then I discuss giving. Finally, I answer your listener questions about agricultural real estate inflation, profiting on mortgage loans when it's time for you to stop accumulating properties and a fast growing state that no one talks about today on get rich education

Speaker 1 0:33

since 2014 the powerful get rich education podcast has created more passive income for people than nearly any other show in the world. This show teaches you how to earn strong returns from passive real estate investing in the best markets without losing your time being a flipper or landlord. Show Host Keith Weinhold writes for both Forbes and Rich Dad advisors, and delivers a new show every week since 2014 there's been millions of listener downloads of 188 world nations. He has a list show guests include top selling personal finance author Robert Kiyosaki, get rich education can be heard on every podcast platform, plus it has its own dedicated Apple and Android listener phone apps build wealth on the go with the get rich education podcast. Sign up now for the get rich education podcast or visit get rich education.com

Corey Coates 1:18

You're listening to the show that has created more financial freedom than nearly any show in the world. This is get rich education.

Keith Weinhold 1:34

Welcome to GRE from Williamsburg, Virginia to Williamsport, Pennsylvania and across 188 nations worldwide. I'm Keith Weinhold, and you're listening to get rich education, and I'm somewhat near Williamsport, Pennsylvania today. For years, I've told you about the widening canyon between the haves and the have nots, and that's something that you might have only visualized in your head or merely considered a theory, but now you can see it. There's a chart that I recently shared with our newsletter subscribers that might just make your spine tingle and look, I don't like saying this, but hard work just does not pay off like it used to. This is emblematic of the K shaped economy. Just visualize the upper branch of the K, a line rising over time, and the lower branch of a letter k, that line falling over time, both plotted on the same chart. So what steadily happened over the last 60 years really is quite astonishing. And look, I don't want the world to be the way that I'm about to tell you it is, but that's just what's occurring. The share of one's income from capital assets is rising, while the share from labor keeps decreasing simultaneously. Now just think about your own personal economy. What share of your income is from your invested capital versus how much of your income is derived from your labor. When you're the youngest, it's all labor. When I got out of college and had my first job, all of my income was from labor. I certainly didn't have any rental property cash flow or stock dividends. But for Americans, here is how it's changed over time, and this K shaped divergence is alarming people in 1965 it was 5050 by 1990 54% of income was from capital and 46% labor. Today it's 57% capital and only 43 labor. Gosh, the divergence is real, and it's only getting wider, and I really had to dig for the sources on this K shaped economy chart. They are the BLS, the Tax Foundation and the International Labor Organization. Increasingly, asset owners are the haves. The upper part of this K shaped economy, that line is drifting up like a helium balloon that you forgot to tie to the chair. It just keeps going up and then the labor share of income, which is shrinking, that is also known as how much of the economic pie goes to people who actually work for a living. That is another way to think of it. So frankly, that's why I say hard work just does not pay off like it used to, because with each wave of inflation, assets, pump, leveraged assets, mega pump and wages lag behind, and we can't allocate our resources in the way that we want the. World to be, but how the world really is. In fact, the disparity is even greater than the chart that I just described to you, because it doesn't even include value accumulation, also known as appreciation. I was only talking about income there, and the reality is that working for a paycheck just pays off less and less and less. No amount of working overtime on a Saturday can make you wealthy, but it might make you miserable. Owning assets pays off more and more. In fact, the effect is even more exaggerated than what I even described, because, as we know, the tax treatment is lighter on your capital gains than it is your income derived through labor. As the economy keeps evolving, those who benefit the most, they do not sell their time for money. They're not trading their time for dollars. In fact, let me distill it down here are, yeah, it's just four words that could change the way you allocate your time and your effort for the rest of your life. Capital compounds, labor doesn't. yeah, there's a lot right there. If you want to keep up or get ahead, you need to be on the capital part of the K, the upper part. And what would that really look like for you in real life? What does that practically mean? It means building ownership into your financial life, owning real estate, owning businesses using prudent leverage, owning things that produce income, and even merely owning more things that appreciate. And here's the great news, though, real estate is still the most accessible, leverageable, tax favored capital friendly asset class ever created. That's whether you're just patching together like 43k for a down payment on your first turnkey single family rental, or making a tax deferred exchange into a 212 door apartment complex. Okay, this is how that can look in real life. The bottom line here is that as the economy gets more and more K shaped, with this divergence between Americans capital share of income increasing and labor share decreasing, that you want to stack real income generating assets. That is the big takeaway.

Keith Weinhold 7:44

Well, this is the time of year where a lot of people feel compelled to give donations. And as a GRE listener that's paid five ways, you've got more ability than others to give, I need to caution you about some things. I'm sorry that it is this way, because I do want to promote giving. It's kind, it's virtuous, and it's not a completely selfless act either, because when I give, it makes me feel good too. You're making a difference, and that feels great. Let's talk about the downsides of giving, though, because few people discuss that. We already know about the upsides when I give to an organization, say, 1500 bucks here, $1,000 over there, well, inevitably, you do get on that organization's contact list. And yeah, I suppose that it is easier to retain a customer or donor than it is to find a new one. Sometimes I just make what I expected to be a one time donation, but they will keep contacting you. Now, I was once on the other side of this. I served on a volunteer committee that organizes athletic events, and a friend of mine, John made a $1,000 donation to our organization one year, which was really kind, and he's just a day job working kind of guy when he didn't make the donation. The following year, someone made it a line item in our meeting minutes to say that John's donation was not renewed. Like that's the only thing they brought up. Oh gosh, that really struck me the wrong way, because here's a guy that traded his time for dollars at a job that I happen to know he doesn't like very much, and the committee statement was that the guy didn't renew his donation. Sheesh, now, when it comes to the tax treatment of, say, $1,000 that you make in a donation, there's a lot of misunderstanding about how that works, and this is the type of subject that you're thinking about now, because sometimes people want to get a tax break tallied up before year end, because some people think that after the year ends, well, the IRS pays you back the $1,000 you donated because it's tax deductible. No, that's how a tax credit. Works. But a tax deduction, which is all that you might be eligible for, means that if your annual income is 100k well then a 1k donation lowers your taxable income to 99k so if you're in the 24% tax bracket, then you'd get 240 bucks back. But you know, in many or even most cases, you're not going to get any tax break at all for making a donation, and this is because you did not exceed the standard deduction threshold, which is now almost 16k if you're single and almost 32k married, you get to deduct those amounts from your taxable income no matter what. So the standard deduction, in a way, it's nice, because you don't have to keep receipts and do all that tracking for everything. So I've had that experience myself where, huh, feeling a little generous throughout the year, giving $1,500 here, $1,000 there. Oh, and then realizing that it does nothing for me on taxes, you have to give more to exceed the standard deduction amount and start itemizing them. And mortgage interest does go into that amount. Okay, it does go into the amount to try to get your total above the standard deduction threshold. So go ahead and give freely, but in a lot of cases, keep in mind that it often does nothing for your taxes, because you're taking that standard deduction if you indeed are. There's been another tip flation trend that's annoying, and that is increasingly when I give a donation online, I'm asked to if I want to leave a tip on top of the donation. That is so weird, a tip is for good service. I'm serving you by being generous enough to give a donation. Sheesh, a tip request on top of a donation. But please do give when you do, one thing that you might want to specify is that it is a one time donation, if that is your intent, or they will constantly follow up with you.

Keith Weinhold 12:06

Coming up next, I'm going to answer your listener questions. A member of Team GRE, who you haven't heard before, is going to come in to ask me your listener questions, and one of them is going to be among the most important topics that our show has never addressed, and it's about time. I'm Keith Weinhold. You're listening to get rich education.

Keith Weinhold 12:28

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Keith Weinhold 13:40

the same place where I get my own mortgage loans is where you can get yours. Ridge lending group and MLS, 42056, they provided our listeners with more loans than anyone because they specialize in income properties. They help you build a long term plan for growing your real estate empire with leverage. Start your prequel and even chat with President Caeli Ridge personally while it's on your mind, start at Ridge lending group.com that's Ridge lending group.com

Kristen Tate 14:14

this is author Kristin Tate. Listen to get rich education with Keith Weinhold, and don't quit your Daydream.

Keith Weinhold 14:32

Welcome back to get rich Education. I'm your host. Keith Weinhold, they say that it takes a village to get some things done and well, it takes a team to prop up this slack jawed operation one GRE team member, capably behind the scenes for more than a year and a half now, is Brenda Almendariz, welcome in. Brenda, Hi, Keith, thanks. Rather than me asking the listener questions this time you. You get to do it, but before we do that, just tell us a bit about your real estate investing.

Brenda 15:07

Sure. So I started maybe learning a little bit about investing and kind of looking into other options to grow my wealth. And I came across the GRE podcast and a few others. So I think about 2018 I did a little bit of just learning and kind of educating myself. And then 2019 I bought my first turnkey property. Turned out well. And then 2020 I bought my second one. And then in 2021 I decided, okay, this is working really well. Maybe I'll do a house hack. I'll do something a little different, and in a year, then maybe I'll do something else. But I've been in my 2021 home now for about almost five years. I'm looking for the next one, hopefully within the next year. But yeah, it's been great. Turnkey. Just met real estate investment company here at my local REIA, and then I learned that I could actually connect with other companies across other places through GRE but yeah, it's been great.

Keith Weinhold 16:02

Brenda lives in Phoenix, just about as close to the center of Phoenix as you can possibly be. I sat down with Brenda for lunch the last time that I was in Phoenix, and like a lot of people, almost everybody that works here at GRE they started out as a listener before they ever worked here. And really, it's that same story with Brenda as well. So yeah, Brenda will want to ask us the first of what we have about four listener questions today

Brenda 16:31

we do, so I'll go over the first one here. Question is, I would love for you to revisit some of the non traditional example, coffee plantation, CBD manufacturing, teak plantation, Belize resort properties and syndication projects you've discussed on the GRE podcast just to see how they turned out. I'm sure some of them failed to deliver the expected returns, and it's the failures that many of us learn the most from

Keith Weinhold 17:02

Yeah, totally. Okay, so not so much a listener question here, but a comment to discuss more of these agricultural real estate investments or ones that are in syndications off of the investment type that you can't do yourself, is what we're talking about here, rather than direct ownership of residential rental property and an appeal to follow up down the road to see how they really turned out. And you know, Brenda, I'll address you because we don't have the listener name with this question. Most people in my position, if an investment has been discussed on the show, and then that investment didn't go as well as was hoped for, you know what? They never tell the audience about it. However, there's the Panama coffee farm investment. We first discussed that here way back in 2015 and we had a GRE field trip where I met a lot of you in person there in Panama. And as I often do when we discuss a particular investment here, I bought and still own Panama coffee farm parcels myself. That investment, it paid cash flow from the crop yields for a few years, and then it stopped. The good yields stopped due to covid disruption, and since then, there have also been erratic weather patterns like drought and precipitation of the wrong levels and at the wrong time of year, and there's been more of a prevalence of pests in disease like coffee leaf, rust and the operator. They have been communicative and forthcoming all the while they're still issuing the annual report that I read, and sometime after that, I think that a lot of investors were assured, because it sort of made national news, international news, that markets for both coffee and cacao have been suppressed, at least from the standpoint of there's not enough crop yield. I mean, that is a problem in a lot of places worldwide. Now I hope that turns around, and it very well may. In fact, we did something here that very few shows do. Back on episode 431, we had the Panama coffee farm CEO come back on the show to describe exactly what I just told you about there. And few shows are willing to do that. Some people just want you to think that every single investment that's discussed goes as well it was hoped for, or even better than expected. But that is not real world. You got to be authentic in real So, okay. Listener, comment, well, taken there. They appreciate that sort of follow up, and they would like more of that. All right, that's great. What's the next question? Brenda.

Brenda 19:40

Sure. So the next one comes to us from our audience over on YouTube. So in response to our real estate pays five ways in a slow market, YouTube video matrices wrote, There is no inflation profiting. You would have to be paying off the loan with an income that goes up with housing inflation. That's plausible if you are a wage earner, but if your source of income is rental properties, then there isn't a wage increase that reduces the effective loan amount. You are double dipping in the inflation profiting column by counting appreciation which you earn as a real estate investor and inflation profiting, which you earn only if your wages go up at the rate of housing inflation, and you use those wages to pay off the loan, which you don't

Keith Weinhold 20:33

Okay, again, somewhat of a statement here. I suppose there's a question implicit within that for matrices. I'm not sure how you say that name exactly. Wondering about inflation profiting. Are you counting it? Right? I don't know about that. The part about paying off the loan faster if you're a wage earner, I mean, that's plausible, but not if your income is from rental properties. I mean, see that's actually backwards, because your cash flow goes up faster than the rate of inflation due to your biggest payment, your principal and interest staying fixed, so your net rent income goes up even faster than the rate of inflation. So inflation profiting, therefore it's even better than how I've been presenting it and calculating it. Now with that understood matrices, here's one way for real estate investors to understand inflation profiting on your loan if you still have trouble getting with that. 30 years ago, in 1995 the US median home price was 130k with an 80% loan, your mortgage balance at origination would have been 104k and the monthly mortgage payment is 763 with the 8% market mortgage rate level that you would have gotten at that time. Now, even if we don't apply any principal pay down at all, your mortgage balance today is still just 104k and your payment is still just 736 bucks, and it is substantially easier to make that payment today, because your wages and salaries and rent incomes are multiples higher. When you originate a loan, the bank doesn't ask to be repaid in dollars or their equivalent. The loan documents only say dollars and dollars are worth less and less and less. So today, your median priced property is worth over 400k despite still having that tiny 104k loan balance. And of course, your tenant would have paid that down to zero, and we aren't even counting that part, I think, to really exaggerate the effect and help make the inflation profiting concept crystallize for you, matrices. If you go back 100 years, the median home cost was 11,600 bucks. An 80% loan would be just over 9k that you borrowed. Okay, so at a 7% interest rate, 30 year loan, the monthly payment would be 94 bucks, laughably small. That's less than the cost of a nice dinner out today. That's all you owe on a median priced property, which is over 400k today. So because it doesn't feel like you're tangibly walking away with anything when you sell a property, hopefully that helps make it real mitricas. And one last way to think about it is, let's just forget real estate for a moment. Would you loan your best friend 100k for 30 years interest free, even if we're somehow absolutely guaranteed that he would pay you back? Well, of course, he wouldn't do that, because inflation destroys the lender and benefits the borrower. So you would want to be the borrower in that case, because the borrower profits from inflation, profiting just like you're the borrower with income property. That's the position that you want to be in. But I'm glad we brought this up, because a lot of people have that question. That was a good one. Matrices, even though you seem to sort of be doubting if inflation profiting is a real thing with the way you approach the question, hey, I really appreciate it. Anyway, what's the next one? Brenda

Brenda 24:10

yep. So the next one we have is Mark. He wrote into our general inbox, and he says, I have been listening to your podcasts from the beginning, and I believe I have not missed a single show. Wow. Yeah, it would be hard to argue with your strategy of using debt to rapidly increase your returns and expand your rental real estate portfolio. This method is great for the accumulation phase of one's life. However, I believe that you have never addressed the next chapter of everyone's life, phase two. I am, of course, talking about preserving your wealth, which is phase two. Yeah, I only ask this because that is what stage of life I am in. For background, he has 15 rentals, seven mortgages. Age 62. Currently all managed by a property manager, and he is married and an empty nester. Please note, no matter how much money is made from rentals, he said, his wife's view is that it is work, and so she does not want any more homes or work. This would be a great idea for an upcoming show. Please consider thanks, Mark.

Keith Weinhold 25:20

Yeah. Great stuff, Mark. And before Brenda came on, we discussed which questions that she's going to choose. And I definitely wanted to have this one in there, because, I mean, this is one of the most important topics that's never been answered on the show, and it really needs to be answered today. The accumulation phase of Mark's life is done. He wants to know about how to approach the preservation stage. First of all, Mark, congratulations. You've listened to every GRE episode, 584, of them now, and you've clearly benefited from acting so good for you to be in this position. In fact, this show had its inception in 2014 and it doesn't even take these 1011, years to reach financial freedom, if you follow my plan. So you are there. All right, so, Mark, you've got 15 rentals, seven mortgages. You're age 62 they're currently managed by a property manager. You're married in an empty nester. I mean, you've made it, and you know that you've made it when you have enough income to support your desired lifestyle. That's what we're talking about here. Financially Free, beat step free and all of that, I'm going to speculate mark that if you had tried paying all cash for every property, you wouldn't have gotten very far. You wouldn't have made it to this point. You know why this question resonates so well with me, Mark, despite being quite a bit younger than you, I am at that stage as well. I definitely don't need to add more properties for the rest of my life. Now. I don't have kids yet either, so there's no clear air there. In fact, one reason that I hold on to my properties is to help educate our audience to be a real investor in the game and to be able to keep up with trends. You can just kind of tell when someone's not investing in real estate themselves. So if I talk it, I want to keep doing it now for you, Mark, it's not about rushing to pay off your seven mortgages, as you know from listening, that's usually not your best return on capital. If you've already made it, there is absolutely zero reason to add more properties, I would agree, especially if you know, in your wife's eyes, that creates a headache, and maybe yours as well, once you get to a certain point. So as far as this preservation stage, since you've moved away from the accumulation phase, the LLC is the favorite protection structure, not a C or an S Corp. And I have done shows on that with attorneys before. Since I'm not one of your 15 properties, if one or two are less profitable or for whatever reason, you just have difficulty getting those rented during vacancies, okay, you can sell those off if you don't want to do the 1031, exchange into more property, you can pay the tax. That's an option, but you will also have to pay depreciation recapture on those properties and mark. If there's one thing I wish I knew, it's that if you do have children or clear heirs, but the gold standard for passing along properties to heirs is a revocable living trust, and if you only remember one thing about that, a properly drafted living trust is the number one way to pass along rental properties smoothly. And why it's great is that it avoids probate. Probate is a court supervised process. It takes months or years of delay. So instead, with a revocable living trust, heirs get access to your properties almost immediately. Now you are age 62 hopefully this isn't happening anytime soon, but you do keep full control while you're alive, it's easy to update a revocable living trust, but the big one probably is that it prevents family disputes and it keeps everything private. That way there's no public probate record. And the bonus is, if you own properties in multiple states, a trust avoids multiple probates, that's huge. So those are some considerations. Mark as you've Congratulations again. Move from the accumulation phase to the preservation stage. It's a completely normal, natural process. You sure don't have to keep adding properties for ever and ever. Congrats. You made it. You did it.

Brenda 29:37

Great. We've got another one, Keith. This one is from Tim in Philomath, Oregon, and he says, I would be interested in the days ahead, if you would be able to help us understand why North Dakota is projected to grow so much.

Keith Weinhold 29:54

Okay, thanks, Tim in follow math, Oregon, another word I'm not sure how to pronounce. Now, yeah, you might think it's unusual that I would want to answer this question. For a low population state of under 1 million people, like North Dakota, from today to 2050 there's forecast to be 9% population growth nationally, but in North Dakota, it is 34% that is quite a surge, and that is per visual capitalist via the University of Virginia, but North Dakota's projected growth, it looks surprisingly strong on paper, especially for a cold, rural, low population state. But really, there are at least four major forces behind the fast 2025 to 2050, Outlook, and when you break them down, the growth actually makes sense. So I want to talk about this, because it's really a template for what makes for a growing place and a good future real estate market, no matter where it is. But in North Dakota, you've got this continued energy sector, strength, oil, gas and next generation energy. Part of what's driving the growth is something that's definitely not a new story. It is still the Bach and shale. It's still one of the top US oil fields. You got advances in drilling. That means more production with fewer rigs. That makes a sector more resilient. You've got global demand for liquid fuels projected to remain high through 2050 I know people like to talk about renewables, and there probably is a future there. But it's not like we're going to go all renewable right away. North Dakota is aggressively expanding carbon capture. So energy equals jobs. Jobs equals population retention and in migration, there's a national labor shortage in North Dakota. It's got this skilled worker hole. The US is going to face a major labor shortage through 2050 that's because of trends that you really can't change, like an aging population and low birth rates. That makes these high wage, high demand energy and engineering jobs stickier. North Dakota consistently leads in labor force participation, job availability, good starting wages for skilled trades, and they always seem to have a low unemployment rate, lower than the national average. So in other words, people move where the jobs are, even if it's cold. They really have one of the best economic outlooks in the country. There's a report called Rich states, poor states. In their latest one, they ranked North Dakota fifth nationwide in economic outlook, and that's above Texas and Florida and Tennessee, and that's because North Dakota has low taxes. They're business friendly, they're light on regulation. Businesses like that, their budgets are stable, and they've got strong public finances. So states with those fundamentals, they tend to grow pretty well over long horizons, and North Dakota has this demographic momentum. It's a younger state than all the surrounding states. They have a younger median age, high birth rates, so they've got this faster natural replacement rates, and they have really strong university systems, both und and North Dakota State, and what that does is that retains those graduates for jobs like energy and engineering and agriculture. So North Dakota benefits from this high stay rate, like a lot of people move for jobs, and they end up staying there, and their population growth seems fast, but the overall population small, so a net gain of 150,000 people, that really seems huge in percentage terms. It's steady rather than explosive growth. We're talking about annual gain. So really, a takeaway for investors is that North Dakota's growth is not a fluke. It's from strong economic policy, a big, durable energy engine, high earning jobs. You got this favorable business climate, and really unexpectedly young demographics. I read that the counties that will grow fastest are Cass Williams and stark and, you know, Brenda. If we learn about a reputable North Dakota property provider, maybe we'll talk about them here on the show. So if you the listener or anyone else know about one, write into us at get rich education, comm slash contact, and we'll check them out. And also, more broadly, if you want your listener question answered in the future, that's where to write to us as well, again, at get rich education.com/contact, thank thanks for the North Dakota question, Tim and Brenda, it's nice to have you here to ask the questions in a different voice.

Brenda 34:29

Thanks, Keith. Yeah, it's good to be on this side of the show instead of

Keith Weinhold 34:34

a listener. After all these years, there's one episode I'm sure you'll be listening to, and it's this one that you're on today.

Keith Weinhold 34:48

Yeah, much of our team here were GRE listeners before they ever worked here. We just made another hire two months ago. That woman worked for a payment processor. I said at the time, that sounds really boring. It definitely sounds more interesting to work at the GRE podcast. To review what you learned today, capital compounds labor doesn't though I promote being a giver, there are downsides to giving, but they're manageable. Inflation, profiting is the most often misunderstood of the five ways, and you will reach a tipping point where you've won in which you no longer have to add properties. That is transitioning from the accumulation phase to the preservation phase. That is one of the more important unaddressed things on the show until today, and finally, North Dakota's booming growth projections coming up soon on the show, I'll reveal GRE national home price appreciation forecast for next year, where you will learn the exact percent appreciation or decline expected in the future. Until then, check us out at get richeducation.com I'm your host. Keith Weinhold, don't quit your Daydream.

Speaker 3 36:00

You nothing on this show should be considered specific, personal or professional advice. Please consult an appropriate tax, legal, real estate, financial or business professional for individualized advice. Opinions of guests are their own. Information is not guaranteed. All investment strategies have the potential for profit or loss. The host is operating on behalf of Get Rich Education LLC, exclusively.

Keith Weinhold 36:32

The preceding program was brought to you by your home for wealth building, GetRichEducation.com

Direct download: GREepisode584_.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 4:00am EST

Mon, 8 December 2025

Keith reviews the state of the real estate market, noting that existing home sales are down about 33% from their 2021 peak, while prices remain firm due to low supply and high demand.

Affordability challenges are driven by stagnant wages, inflation, and higher mortgage rates, with 70% of mortgage holders still locked in at rates below 5%.

He observes that in certain markets, new construction may now offer better investor terms than comparable existing properties, especially where builders buy down rates.

The episode highlights a comparison of nearly a century of asset class returns, reporting real estate’s long-term annual appreciation at approximately 4.7%.

Episode Page:

GetRichEducation.com/583

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582: 7 Proven Ways to Get a Lower Mortgage Rate with Caeli Ridge

Complete episode transcript:

Keith Weinhold 0:01

welcome to GRE. I'm your host. Keith Weinhold, how do other audiences feel about the GRE mantras that we've come to love here, like financially free beats debt free and don't get your money to work for you? Then sometimes it's not what you're attracted to in life, but what you're running away from finally comparing the returns from six major asset classes over the past century all today on get rich education

Keith Weinhold 0:29

since 2014 the powerful get rich education podcast has created more passive income for people than nearly any other show in the world. This show teaches you how to earn strong returns from passive real estate investing in the best markets without losing your time being a flipper or landlord. Show Host Keith Weinhold writes for both Forbes and Rich Dad advisors, and delivers a new show every week since 2014 there's been millions of listener downloads of 188 world nations. He has a list show guests include top selling personal finance author Robert Kiyosaki, get rich education can be heard on every podcast platform, plus it has its own dedicated Apple and Android listener phone apps build wealth on the go with the get rich education podcast. Sign up now for the get rich education podcast or visit get rich education.com

Corey Coates 1:18

You're listening to the show that has created more financial freedom than nearly any show in the world. This is get rich education.

Keith Weinhold 1:34

Welcome to GRE from Kennebunkport, Maine to Bridgeport, Connecticut and across 188 nations worldwide. It is the voice of real estate investing since 2014 I'm Keith Weinhold, and I'm grateful to have you here with me, and we're doing something a little different today, as you'll soon listen in to me as I was on the hot seat being interviewed on another prominent real estate show. But first, when you pull back and ask yourself, why you're really an investor in the first place? There are so many reasons. Maybe you just want a few properties in order to supplement your day job income. Maybe you want to have more than a few so that you can completely replace that active income, or perhaps rather than going the route of building up your cash flow, which is valid, but some think that it's the only way to real estate financial freedom. Instead, you could own, say, nine doors or 22 doors, and even if they all had zero cash flow, you can just keep borrowing against that leverage and equity tax free and live off of that whatever you do when it comes to your day job, income, your degree of disdain for your nine to five job that is going to be greater or less than it is for some others. So your motivation for self improvement, it isn't always about what you're running to in life, which could be real estate investing, but it's also what you're running away from, especially if you don't get a deeply rooted sense of meaning from your job. So you could have both a push factor and a pull factor in what motivates you. There's a scene from the 1999 movie Office Space that just does this incredibly unvarnished job of saying out loud how so many of us feel today. What I'm going to share with you, I mean, you know that you have felt this at least once in your life. Office space wasn't supposed to be a mega hit movie, but it kind of was, because it's so relatable. Let's listen in to part of this clip. This is Ron Livingston playing a disgruntled male employee talking to Jennifer Aniston at a restaurant about his job in the movie Office Space.

Speaker 1 4:09

I don't like my job, and I don't think I'm gonna go anymore. You're just not gonna go. Yeah, won't you get fired? I don't know, but I really don't like it, and I'm not gonna go.

Keith Weinhold 4:24

Then it continues when she asks. So you're just gonna quit? No, not really. I'm just gonna stop going. When did you decide all of that? About an hour ago? Really? Yeah, aren't you going to get another job? I don't think I'd like another job. What are you going to do about money in bills and all that? I've never really liked paying bills. I don't think I'm going to do that either.

Keith Weinhold 4:53

That's it. That is the end of that classic dialog from office space that we can. All relate to you did not wake up to be mediocre, but a lot of people's jobs pummel them into a rather prosaic state. You were born rich because you were born with this abundance of choices, this huge palette in menu, but society often stifles that and makes you forget it, and it gets really easy to just fall into your groove and stay there. The main reason we aren't living our dreams is really because we're living our fears. Failure doesn't actually destroy as many dreams as people think fear and doubt. Does fear and doubt destroy more dreams than failure ever does financial runway? That is a phrase for the amount of time that you can maintain your lifestyle without the need for a paycheck. And it's critical for you to lengthen this runway if you hope to retire early, and it will dramatically reduce your stress level. An example is say that you currently earn 150k per year after taxes, and you spend 126k of that, all right. Well, that means you've got a surplus of 24k a year. Well, it's going to take you a little over five years to accumulate that 126k that you need to annually support your lifestyle. That's what happens if you don't invest. And see investing helps you lengthen your financial runway, that amount of time you can maintain your lifestyle without the need for a paycheck. That's what we're talking about here. Last week I brought you the show from Caesar's Palace in the center of the Las Vegas Strip. So therefore, what I've done is I have gone from the ostentatious and flamboyant over here to the familial and simple as this week I'm in Buffalo New York, broadcasting from a somewhat makeshift GRE studio here, the Buffalo Bills had a home game yesterday, so the city and hotels are busier than usual. Next week, I will bring you the show from upstate Pennsylvania, as I'm traveling to see my family. Let's listen in to me on the hot seat. I was recently a guest on Kevin bups long running real estate investing show. You're going to get to see how I present information and GRE principles for the first time to a different audience. And as I do, you're going to hear me provide new material, but you'll also hear me say quite a few things that I have told you before, even then, the concepts might land differently when I'm explaining them to a new audience. The show is based in Florida, so We'll also touch on the real estate pain and opportunity there. After I'm interviewed, I'm going to come back and tell you about something fascinating. I'm going to compare the returns from six major asset classes over the past century, since 1930 anyway, and that's going to include the first time on the show where I'll tell you real estate's annual appreciation rate over the last entire century. Just about what do you think it is? 8% 5% 3% you're gonna have, perhaps the best answer you've ever had. Here we go.

Kevin Bupp 8:31

Now, guys, I want to welcome back a guest that we've had on. It's been a number of years now. Keith Weinhold, I went back to look at the last episode we had him on. I think it's been about four years. So, you know, four years ago, the world was in the very different state. It was a very different time. And so, you know, thankfully, we're out of the covid era and on to newer and greater things. So for those that don't know Keith, he's the founder of get rich education. He's the host of the popular get rich education podcast. He's a longtime thought leader in the real estate investing space, and like myself. Keith was also born and raised in Pennsylvania. For those that know don't know, I was born and raised in Harrisburg, Pennsylvania, Keith, I believe, a couple hours away from where I was. But Keith has very much a unique perspective on wealth, building debt, and really the housing market as a whole. And today, you know, we'll be diving into everything you know, from why the property itself? This is something that Keith kind of coins, why the property itself is less important than you think, to how the housing crash has already happened in a way that most people don't even realize, to the role inflation and debt play in building long term wealth. And so again, it's been a number of years here, so I'm excited to welcome Keith back here. So my friend, Keith, welcome to the show. It's it's a pleasure to have you back here again, my friend.

Keith Weinhold 9:43

Oh, Kevin, it's good to be here and be in the auspices of another fellow native Pennsylvanian as well.

Kevin Bupp 9:49

That's right, that's right, yeah, no, Pa is rocking and rolling as I think I told you this little, this little tidbit last time everyone, every time I speak with someone from Pennsylvania, they never know this. But I'm going to share this fun fact. Are you already know, Keith. I'm gonna share it with the rest of the listeners here today, Pennsylvania, those that are born and raised there. It's the only state where, if you're from Pennsylvania, you refer to it by its initials, and you assume that everyone else, everywhere else across the country, they know what you're talking about when you say I'm from PA and that's the only state that does that. So I think it's pretty neat.

Keith Weinhold 10:19

That's right. No one else does that. No one else says, I'm from TN, if they're from Memphis, right?

Kevin Bupp 10:24

They don't, they don't. So with that, my friend. So, you know, it's, again, it's been a number of years since we, since we had you last on here, you know, let's start with just, let's back up a little bit. You know, what have you been up to? I mean, what, what have the last few years look like for you? Where have you been spending your time, energy and efforts? Obviously, it's, you know, we've gone through some quite a bit of turmoil over the last five years, and would love to just get an update as to what's going on your life.

Speaker 2 10:48

Well, one of the big words in real estate investing, we all know it, even the person that cuts your hair and cleans your teeth knows it, and that's affordability. You know, really, affordability has been under fire, under pressure. By a lot of measures, we have the worst affordability for home buying since the early 80s, when the Jeffersons was on television. So it's been helping a lot of people deal with that. It's really the effect of three things, general inflation, higher home prices and higher mortgage rates. Really, those three things the crux of the problem. It's not exactly inflation, really. It's the fact that over the long term, wages don't keep up with inflation. And really that's the crux of the affordability problem. So I've been helping people deal with that and put that in perspective, really, Kevin,

Kevin Bupp 11:42

what does that mean for, you know, investment, real estate? I mean, are you still still doing deals? Are you seeing deals still get done by your students? I mean, what? What's your world look like?

Keith Weinhold 11:52

Yeah. I mean, I think you're asking, you know, how many deals are taking place? One way to measure that on a national basis is existing home sales. You know, existing home sales have been down substantially. And when a lot of people hear that, they think, prices, oh no, we're not talking about prices. We're talking about existing home sales. That means sales volume. That means the amount of overall transactions. So to give an idea of a real estate market, a residential one that's become pretty lethargic and not very vibrant, is that sales volume. It had its recent peak of about 6 million home sales back in 2021 I mean, 2021 was crazy, kind of the crux of the pandemic, you know, Kevin, that's when for an open house. You saw cars wrapped around the block for just one open house. Okay, well, that year 2021 there were 6 million existing home sales. Today, we're on pace to do about 4 million, and we also did only about 4 million last year. So if you put that in perspective and think about what that means, prices have stayed stable, but that's a 33% reduction in transactions. So investors, you know, people like you and I, Kevin, we're not as affected by this as some other industries. But think about the mortgage loan industry. If you're doing 33% fewer transactions, think about the hard decisions companies have to make and lay people off. 33% fewer transactions for title companies. It's probably close to 33% fewer transactions for furniture companies as well. So really it's both affordability that's been a problem, and that's led to this relative lethargy, kind of a slow, not very interesting residential real estate market, at least from the transaction perspective, really, really slow.

Kevin Bupp 13:58

But Could, could one not argue, I don't know the data points. Keith, I guess, what did it look like? 2021? Was kind of the peak. I think you'd reference 6 million units a year. Transactionally, what did it look like prior? What, what was, what was a more normal year like? And maybe 2020, wasn't a normal year either, right? Because a lot of folks thought the role was ending for a period of time. You know, 2019 maybe just again, trying to, trying to find maybe a better baseline to use. And then, you know, does, I guess, in my mind, and I don't follow these data points as much as you do, is that maybe 2021, was, you know, somewhat artificial inflation, right? Lots of lots of money pumping into the marketplace. And ultimately, we had to get back to a sense of normalcy at some point in time. And so are we at a at a place of normalcy? Are we still behind the eight ball a little bit?

Keith Weinhold 14:44

We're still behind the eight ball a little bit. 5 million is more of a normal long term number. But yeah, I mean, if we've got 4 million now, that's, you know, 25% less still than 5 million, sort of this long term normalcy rate of existing. Home transactions. And if you're a careful listener, you notice I've been using the word existing that doesn't include new build. So you know, when you the listener out there reading headlines, always look at that closely. We talking about existing? Are we talking about new build? You can learn a lot from that when you introduce new build data that introduces an awful lot of noise. For example, even when we look at prices, sometimes we want to exclude new construction. So why is that? Why do we want to focus on existing a lot? Well, because new build can introduce a lot of aberrations to the market. For example, the size of new build properties has dropped substantially the past few years, again, coming back to the central theme of affordability to help make a home more affordable. So we're not looking at same same when the square footage of a property drops a lot. And also, another thing that's been happening as a response to the lack of affordability is you have more builders building further and further out from a central business district where there are lower land costs for that new build property as well to help meet affordability. So the takeaway is, yeah, we want to be careful when we look at numbers. Are we looking at existing? Are we looking at new? Are we looking at overall properties.

Kevin Bupp 16:22

If you believe that if rates come down, we really is that the is that the lever that has to be pulled in order for that transactional volume to kick back up and, you know, make homes more affordable for the average home buyer,

Keith Weinhold 16:34

yeah, it's certainly going to help. I mean, really lower rates is the most likely significant lever that can help with the affordability crisis. Prices are pretty firm. Home prices are up 2% year over year. It's difficult for home prices to fall. In fact, home prices have only fallen one time substantially since World War Two. A lot of people don't realize that. So home prices are firm. I expect them to stay firm. And then the other lever is if we get a huge surge in wage increases, which I really don't expect anytime soon, unless we have another really big bout of inflation. So to your point, yes, lower mortgage rates like, that's the biggest lever that can help affordability return. And to speak to mortgage rates, Kevin and help put all of this into perspective, including this affordability component, is the fact that today, mortgage rates are low, and that gives a lot of people pause. They're like, What are you talking about? Mortgage rates were 3% even as low as two point some percent, just as recently as 2021 and early 2022 What are you talking about? Like, mortgage rates are 2x to 3x that today we look at a long term perspective when we look at the arc of mortgage rates, instead of in setting up expectations where we think rates could go. And we need to look at a frame of reference. Mortgage rates peaked over 18% in 1981 that's if you had a good credit score and everything on a 30 year fixed rate mortgage. That's what we're talking about here. In fact, Freddie Mac, they're the ones that have the best, most reliable stat set for mortgage rates, and that goes back to 1971 the average mortgage rate since 1971 all the way up to today, through all these presidential administrations you know, Nixon and in the Reagan years, and Clinton and the bushes and Obama, everything You know up to today, from 1971 until today, the average 30 year fixed rate mortgage is 7.7% so that's why I talk about how mortgage rates are, you know, moderate to a little low today. That takes a lot of people back. I don't see any impetus. It's going to get us back to, say, 3% mortgage rates. So some real perspective here.

Kevin Bupp 19:06

Yeah, yeah, no. And, you know, the interesting thing again, you might have data points on this to see, is a lot of the lack, do you feel that a lot of the lack of transactional volume is also related to those folks that have locked in, you know, 3% you know, mortgages, right? Like they're they, why would they sell and ultimately trade into a, maybe a, you know, a, you know, upgrade of a home, but ultimately be paying significantly more than that of what they're paying at the present time, you know, double the cost of capital. Your rates today, 30 year, rates are where the six and a half, 7% range, I don't follow it, but yeah.

Keith Weinhold 19:42

I mean, as of today, 6.3% is is where they're at. But yeah, you have a lot of those homeowners locked in to low rates. I mean, first, if we just pull back and look at the overall homeowner landscape, four in 10 have a paid off property. So just to talk to those about the other. Or 60% that percentage that are mortgage borrowers, among borrowers, 70% still have a mortgage rate under 5% meaning it starts with a four or less. So yeah, you're bringing up astutely Kevin the lock. In effect, people are reluctant to sell and give up that rate to trade it for a higher rate. And here's what's interesting, a lot of people if they couldn't make the payments on their home and say they lost their home, something that actually happened a lot in 2008 when people were locked into in sustainable mortgages because they didn't have good credit and they didn't have good income, the borrower is in good shape today. But even if, for some reason, they couldn't make the payments on their home, and they lost their home and they had to rent. Rents are actually higher in many cases, than what that mortgage principal and interest payment is. Maybe even the mortgage principal interest, taxes and insurance that they pay today are lower than what comparable rent would be, and this helps stabilize the housing market, people are really motivated to make their payments, and they can easily do it when it is so low, speaking to that lock in effect, and we're bringing up another reason now why transaction volume is so low, that lock in effect. So homeowners are in good shape. Their payments are sustainable. They don't want to sell, and they're just staying put. They're staying in place

Kevin Bupp 19:42

tying that all back around. Keith, what does that mean for us real estate investors? I mean, is there still good value out in the marketplace? I mean, is the rent to value ratio still, you know, Is there good opportunity to be had, as far as ROI for an investor that wants to buy into a residential investment or a multifamily investment, or anything related to that of residential housing?

Keith Weinhold 19:42

Well, the deals in the one to four unit space, single family homes up the four Plex buildings, yeah, just are not as good as they used to be. The ratio of rent income to purchase price is lower than it was five years ago. And that's so simple, but that's just really the simplest formula for profitability for a real estate investor, you don't have to look at cap rate or or NOI in the one to four unit space. Let's just look at that ratio of rent income to purchase price. 20 years ago, it was easy to find a full 1% meaning, on a 200k property, you could get $2,000 worth of rent income. That's that 1% ratio. But now oftentimes you've got to find something that's more like seven tenths of 1% that would be a $1,400 rent on a 200k property. So that simple formula, and I love that, the rent income divided by the purchase price when I'm looking at properties, when I'm scrolling or scanning like that's a calculation you can do in your head. It's only if I would see a ratio that appears really good, oh, that I would like drill down and look at that property more closely. So of course, when you have something that is that simple, though, rent income divided by purchase price, there's a lot of things that doesn't tell you. You know, what kind of mortgage interest rate can you get? What kind of property tax Do you pay in that jurisdiction? But really, I love the simplicity. That's it, rent divided by price, but it has been under attack. Now today, I still don't know where you're going to get a better risk adjusted return than you do with a carefully bought income property with a loan. I've always liked fixed interest rate debt the best risk adjusted return anywhere. I really don't know of a better one than with buying real estate, because real estate investors have so many profit centers, five simultaneous profit centers, which few people understand. Yeah.

Kevin Bupp 19:42

So using that, I want to, I want to unpack the the 1% rule a little bit for those that aren't familiar with it. And again, there's a lot of variables there, as you had mentioned, you know, mortgage rate, taxes, insurance and that respective market that you that you're buying in, and so what? What are you really trying to back into when applying that rule? Is there? Is there? Is there a true cash on cash return that you're hoping to achieve, again, assuming all these other variables that we just don't know, what they are at this point, you know? Is there a target range of actual ROI that you're actually looking to achieve when applying that 1% rule?

Keith Weinhold 19:42

No, I'm just looking for any positive cash flow. You know, to your point, yeah, there's nothing like the cash on cash return needs to be at least three and a half percent or something like that. But, yeah, I still like buying a property that's that's greater than a break even. Inflation is probably going to increase your cash flow over time, even if you bought a property that that broke even or just had a trickle of cash flow or a $100 cash flow today, a lot of people don't understand that fact that right there you can't count on it, you shouldn't count on. Getting rent increases. But we all know it generally happens over time at a rate of about 3% a year, but it actually increases your cash flow. If you increase your rent 5% your cash flow can often increase something like 12% why is that? How could that happen? That's because, you know, it's key for the person that was listening closely, you get fixed interest rate debt, so your rent income goes up, your expenses increase, except for that mortgage principal and interest. Inflation can touch it. It's kind of like a mosquito buzzing against a window and always trying to get in. And inflation can't touch that in a way. It's sort of like debt that's an asset in some unusual way, or some play on words, getting that debt so So yes, you can't count on rent increases over time. We know what typically happens, and that's really part of the compelling value proposition of buying income property with a loan. You're sort of leveraging inflation. You're really on the right side of it.

Kevin Bupp 20:08

Are there any particular markets that you feel are ripe for opportunity today where you're spending your focus and energies in?

Keith Weinhold 20:08

Yeah, it's still in high cash flowing markets like Memphis, okay, little rock and a good part of the Midwest and the Midwest still has home prices appreciating faster than the national average as well. So those are some of the areas that I like. Those jurisdictions also tend to have laws, as your listeners might know this already, Kevin, they tend to have laws that benefit the landlord more so than the tenant, where you can get a prompt eviction, but those are still the areas where you do get that high ratio of rent income to purchase price on a single family rental home, you might still find eight tenths of 1% meaning $800 worth of rent for every 100k of property purchase in places exactly like that.

Kevin Bupp 20:08

I was hoping that you tell me 1% rule would is applicable.

Keith Weinhold 20:08

It's pretty rare. You know, if you do see, if you do see a property that has a full 1% rent to purchase price ratio, it could be in a sketchy area, you need to make sure that you can actually get the rent in like you would get a respectful rent paying tenant in there. That's something that we would have to look at more closely.

Kevin Bupp 20:08

Have you explored building new product? Is there an opportunity there getting at a lower basis by building ground up?

Keith Weinhold 19:42

You asked such a smart question. This is actually the first time ever, as long as I've been an active real estate investor, Kevin for more than 20 years where new build purchases for income property make more sense than existing purchases. Why is that? It's because builders know that investors and borrowers are struggling to buy and afford property and make the numbers work. Like you're talking about, that builders are incentivized to buy down your rate. For you, to buy down your mortgage rate, we deal with a lot of providers that buy down your mortgage rate to 5% or less for you, and this is a fixed, long term loan in order to help get the numbers to work. You know, especially where you might see a new build property where the rent to purchase price ratio is less than seven tenths of 1% and it's just like, ah, the numbers wouldn't work paying a higher mortgage rate, but some are willing to buy them down to as little as four and a half. However, if you're looking into buying a new build income producing property, you do want to look at that closely. Who is paying for the discount points to buy down the rate. Is it the builder, or is it you? Because some builders just suggest, hey, you can buy down. You can have your rate bought down. But yeah, the next question is, yeah, okay, who is actually doing the buy down? Yeah.

Keith Weinhold 19:43

I mean, just getting tacked on. I mean, in that instance, I'm assuming that a lot of it's just getting tacked on to the to the back end of the purchase price, or it's being baked into closing costs somewhere somebody is paying for it. More than likely the borrower is paying for it. Paying for it. Is that? Is that? Again, I'm assuming we probably have that here in Florida. Again, I don't really follow the residential market too much, but there's, as you had mentioned, like, kind of on the the outskirts of Tampa, the tertiary, necessary, tertiary, probably more secondary areas. That's where a lot of the builds are happening. Lots of these, you know, planned subdivisions. You know, hundreds and 1000s of homes being put up. And in my understanding, through the grapevine, is I hear that they're, you know, sales volumes is incredibly slow, and a lot of these builders are now offering some creative loan products, again, to what you've just stated there, to attract, not necessarily even just homeowners, but also investors, to come in and buy their product from them. Is, is there a real opportunity there, though? I mean, have you seen investors be able to benefit from buying brand new product at a fair price, with economics at work keeping as a rental?

Keith Weinhold 29:53

I have and Florida has some builders that are almost desperate. I'm a long time investor. Know personally, directly in Florida, income property, Southwest Florida, places like Cape Coral, they have been ground zero for real estate depreciation, a contraction in real estate values year over year of 10% or more in some southwest Florida markets. So like the post pandemic, migration boom is certainly over in Florida. And you know, Kevin, as little as 10 years ago, people used to talk about buy in Florida. It's cheap, it's sunny, cheap and cheerful, like you would sort of hear that sort of thing about Florida real estate. That is no longer true. Florida just is not as cheap as it used to be. It's the same or higher than the national median home price now in Florida. So yes, some builders are rather desperate. The other benefit of buying new build, especially in a place like Florida, where a lot of new building has taken place and the supply actually exceeds the demand here in the short period. You can take advantage of that, not only by getting the rate buy down, but because homeowners insurance premiums are substantially less on new build property, because they're built to today's wind mitigation and other standards than they are existing property. I have a friend that just bought a new Florida duplex through us in Ocala, Florida. That's sort of a central, North Central Florida, on that new build duplex that he paid 400k for. I saw the actual insurance premium, the the rate sheet, $694.06 $694 694 so the benefit of buying new build is you get a lower insurance premium. You get these rate buy down. Sometimes what your builder will buy for you make for you rather and of course, you're probably going to have low maintenance costs for a long time, since it's a new build property, and you get a tenant that is probably going to stay longer than the average duration. They're the first person to ever live there. It's difficult for the tenant to improve their housing situation when they have a new build income property, unless they would go out and buy, and it's a very difficult time to go out and buy. So through that lack of affordability, really, the advantage for a real estate investor is tenants are staying put longer. The average tenancy duration is up because they can't run out and be a first time homebuyer.

Keith Weinhold 32:32

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Keith Weinhold 33:44

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Todd Drowlette 34:17

this is the star of the A and E show the real estate commission. Todd Rowlett, listen to get rich education with my friend Keith Weinhold, and don't quit your Daydream.

Kevin Bupp 34:38

That even trickles down to the to the space that we're in. We're in the mobile home park space. And while we don't have a lot of rentals inside of our portfolio, most of our residents own their home and they rent the land, but throughout our portfolio, we have roughly 400 units that we own that we have as standardized rentals, and we've noticed that trend as well. Historically. 10 years ago, you. Yeah, we track actually about, I can take it back about eight years, where we actually have data to support this. This claim is that our average renter would stay about 16 months. That was fairly standard. Whereas today it's over, it's nearly three years. At this point in time, the majority are staying nearly three in there's probably, there's some variables in there. You know, eight years ago, we weren't bringing a lot of new product into our communities, whereas a lot of the mobile home parks that we purchased today do have a lot of newer mobile homes in them. So again, to your point, it's, it's a it's a newer home. It's fresh. There might not be the first person that lived there, maybe they're only the second, right? But it's still a very new home. It's only a couple years old. All the appliances are new. It's fresh, you know, it's well insulated, and it's just a high quality product, but, but it's nearly double of what we used to experience and what we used to underwrite. It's, you know, which is, which is interesting. You know, I am, I want to, I want to circle back, you'd mentioned Cape Coral. I've got quite a bit, quite a bit of experience with Cape Coral. This is not the first time that Cape Coral and Port Charlotte in those areas have crashed. I mean, like, they've got quite an interesting history in time, back during the GFC, that area down there took probably one of the biggest hits in most of Florida, while, you know, the rest of Florida got, you know, pounded pretty hard with home values and decreasing home values decreasing rents, Port Charlotte, Cape, coral, in those areas as well. It's just It looks very different down there today. As far as you know, the job basis. I mean, there's a little bit more of a, you know, you know, an economy than what existed maybe 1015, years ago. But I don't know if you know the story of Port Charlotte. Is it some interesting history that you can if you want to spend some time, go on YouTube. There's some documentaries out there about, basically when that area was created. There's a two brothers that, essentially, you know, sold, subdivided and sold swampland and sold the dream to the northeast centers to come down and buy, you know, parcels of land down in Cape Coral, port, Charlotte and in that general area. And it took a lot of time for it develop over the years, but it's a beautiful area down there. But again, I think what happened to your point? A lot of folks during the covid era were wanting to come to Florida. We were fairly free down here. The sun was shining, you know, the Gulf of Mexico was warm, and that was a good value for a lot of folks. You know, the values were driving up there. Was home inventory down there. You got a good bang for your buck back at that point in time. But again, there's not, there's not as much as many amenities and supportive economy there. And then to me, there, like you might find in the Tampa area, or you might find Orlando, or even Ocala cow is a phenomenal market right now. And yeah, oh, Cal is, for those that don't you know you mentioned, you referenced the insurance there, which is, that's a great, that's a great price for that, that policy, you know, 700 bucks, basically, that is inland. For those that don't know the geography here in Florida, that is inland. So you are fairly protected from storms, you know, hurricanes and things of that nature, which crush us here on the on the Gulf Coast. But in any event, I just thought I'd share that there's some good, pretty cool documentaries out there in Port Charlotte, in the whole area down there, but a beautiful part of the country. But just Yeah, it's, it's suffering right now. There's, I think there's, I was looking the other day on Zillow. I just play around and check and see what waterfront home prices are going for. And down there, you can basically get a you can get a canal front home going out to the Gulf of Mexico for about $500,000 which was probably closer to 800,000 during, you know, the the boom era of 2021 2022 So historically, we used to buy properties down there. This is back in 2000 and 345, before the the GFC, we could buy those same properties for 150 and $200,000 waterfront home, waterfront homes, deep water canals going out to the Gulf of Mexico. But when it crashed, some of those homes were selling for $120,000 $100,000 so it's interesting to see how things have come kind of full circle multiple times, not just down there, but in all of Florida as well. Florida is always boom and bust. You know, I think they say that with you know, you could probably speak to that most of these coastal towns, whether it be in Florida, whether it be up the eastern seaboard, the coastal markets are definitely more of a roller coaster ride than the Midwestern markets, where you invest in would you? Would you agree with that?

Keith Weinhold 39:09

Yeah, I would. And yeah, you talk about Florida being a boom and bust, and what you said is certainly true in the shorter term. Back in the global financial crisis, we saw more price blood letting in Florida than we did in other states as well. But over the long term, the long arc, I'm bullish on Florida because of just the obvious constant in migration story. In fact, if you go back to decennial censuses, all the way back to the early 1800s every single decennial census, every 10 years, the population of Florida has rose, and it rises faster than the national average, almost all of those 10 year periods. So yeah, over the long term, I certainly like Florida, but Yeah, you sure can, you know, nitpick over the. Short term, but as little as five years from now. If you bought today, as little as five years from now, I could see someone saying, like, yeah, I bought back five years ago, because we're actually in a in a short term, overbuilt condition, and builders bought down my rate. For me, this could look savvy and this could look wise. So if you're looking for opportunity, new building Florida is definitely something to look into.

Kevin Bupp 40:22

I agree. No, absolutely. Like, the long term, you know, opportunity here in Florida, it's there, you know, it's interesting. We've got the we get these hurricanes every year. Last year was a pretty impactful year, at least here on the on the Gulf side, and the neighborhood I lived in, we got flooded. Luckily, our homes in newer builds built up. But, you know, 70% of the neighbor I lived in had 444, or five feet of seawater. And as did the, you know, the long stretch of the Gulf Coast here, and it was the first time this area has ever this immediate air right where we live, has ever had a it wasn't even a direct hit. It just happened to be a massive storm surge. But it was, you know, catastrophic as far as the damage that it did. And a lot of folks that we knew in our neighborhood here. Have lived here for 1020, 3040, or 50 years, and they had never had any floodwater whatsoever. And and there was two camps where they fell in either one camp where they didn't, they whether they had the money to rebuild or not, didn't matter. Like, mentally, they were never going to end up. They were never going to deal with that again. They were moving away, like they just didn't want to go through the heartache of that again. In the second camp, we're basically, I knew it was going to happen at some point in time. This is the kind of price to live, to pay, a live in paradise and and what ultimately occurred is, you know, you saw homes going up for sale, and in the initial chatter for those that that were impacted, is that, who's going to buy that? You know? You know, they're not going to get hardly anything for it. You know, it's just like, who's going to want to live here now that has been flooded. I said, Just wait. I'll say people have us as human beings, have short term memories. We do and and I can promise you, within a few months, those homes will be gobbled up, some will be knocked down, some will be rebuilt, but inevitably, the prices will come back incredibly strong, and you'll see very limited inventory, at least in desirable markets that are here on the water. And that's exactly that happened. Within six month period of time, prices are back up. You can't get your hands on a flooded property now, or one that had been flooded, right?

Keith Weinhold 42:12

I can believe it. And this is not the way that you want to have a waterfront property when the water inundates you and comes to you, that is not the way to buy waterfront property.

Kevin Bupp 42:23

Yeah, interesting, but, uh, no, Keith has been a fun conversation, my friend. So let's, let's talk about, you know, I like to you'll peek inside your brain if you were going to start all over again, from scratch, you know, you've been at this now, what? How long? Almost two decades. It's been, been quite

Keith Weinhold 42:38

Yes, yes, more than two decades. Is that what you're asking, how would I start, starting from today?

Kevin Bupp 42:47

Yeah, like, what would you do? Where would you focus, what asset type and any particular strategy outside of what you're doing today? You know, where would you focus your time?

Keith Weinhold 42:55

Actually, it is quite a coincidence. The way that I would start all over again in real estate is the way that I did start in real estate. It worked out phenomenally, in a way it makes sense, because if it hadn't worked out phenomenally, you never would have heard of me, and I wouldn't have become this real estate thought leader or whatever, because this is a way, an everyday person with virtually no real estate knowledge and very little money. Can start out, what I did is I made the first ever home of any kind, a four Plex building where I lived in one unit and rented out the other three. This is something very actionable for your for your audience as well, Kevin. Or if maybe you're a listener that has a an adult daughter or son and they want to get started in real estate with a bang without much money, is to buy a four Plex, just like I did. You can use an FHA loan, a three and a half percent down payment. You have to live in one of the units at least 12 months, and at last check, your minimum credit score only needs to be 580 now you will get a lower interest rate if you have a higher credit score. But those are the only three criteria you need. I mean, what a country talk about? The American Dream. You can use that FHA program with a single family home, duplex, triplex or fourplex, that's the formula. That's how I began. Actually ended up living there a little more than three years. But what that did for me was remarkable, and in fact, you know what it taught me? Kevin and every listener can benefit from this. It's paradoxical. A lot of times I say things that you would not expect to hear that make you go, wait what? Whoa, how can that be? Is what it taught me is that I don't want to focus on getting my money to work for me. You probably wouldn't expect to hear that. It's actually a middle class paradigm to say, well, I don't want to work for money. I also want to get my money to work for me. I'm telling. You that that's going to keep you middle class, or worse, that's going to keep you working until old age, and you won't have an outsized life and retirement and options. If you think that the best and highest use of your dollar is getting your money to work for you, it's not what's the paradigm shift if this four Plex building taught me the way I started out, which is still the way that I would start out today, and you probably heard this before, but I'm going to put a new twist on it. Is you want to ethically get other people's money to work for you, and we can be ethical. We can do good in the world. Provide housing that's clean, safe, affordable and functional. Never get called a slumlord that way. You can employ other people's money three ways at the same time, ethically by buying an income property with a loan, like we've been talking about in Florida, or with this fourplex building. How do you do it three ways at the same time, using the bank's money for the loan and leverage, which greatly amplifies your return beyond anything Compound Interest can do. The second of three ways you're ethically employing other people's money is you're using the tenants money to pay for the mortgage and some of the operating expenses on this fourplex. And then the third way you're simultaneously using other people's money is using the government's money for generous tax incentives at scale. So the lesson is that the best and highest use of your dollar is not getting just your money to work for you, it's other people's money, in this case, the banks, the tenants and the governments. That's what you can do. I mean, what an opportunity. A lot of people just don't even know about that FHA program.

Kevin Bupp 46:41

Yeah, I actually, I wasn't, I wasn't aware that it was that low of a down payment key. That's no idea. Three and a half percent, you said, a 550 credit score, believe me, 580 minimum credit.

Keith Weinhold 46:51

And you have to, thirdly, you have to owner occupy a unit for at least 12 months. And hey, I'm not saying it's always easy. You know, you got to think about that. Your neighbors are also your tenants. And I don't know how to fix stuff. I still don't. I'm a terrible handyman, but it's good to learn a little about about human relations. And you know, letting finding a general way to let the tenants know that you have a mortgage to pay every month. I mean, just that alone can can help them ensure timely rent payments. But, and this also doesn't mean every area, or every four Plex building is is good, but, yeah, that's the opportunity. That's how I started. I would totally do it again.

Kevin Bupp 47:27

Can you use that FHA program more than once? Or is that just the one time you know your first, first, first primary home purchase?

Keith Weinhold 47:34

It's generally you can only use one at a time. There are some exceptions, like if you and your job move, like, a certain mile radius away from where you got the first one, but, yeah, generally it's only going to be one at a time. A lot of people don't use it. Don't know about it. In fact, if you have VA benefits, Veterans Administration benefits, you can get a similar program, like I was talking about, but zero down payment, rather than three and a half with an FHA loan. It's a really good, amazingly good opportunity.

Kevin Bupp 48:05

That's incredible. That's incredible. Keith, my friend, I appreciate you coming back going. It's always good to catch up with you. Good to see that you're doing well.

Keith Weinhold 48:17

Oh yeah, a terrific chat there with Kevin. I hope that you like that really. At our core, real estate investors are not day trading. We are decade trading. Now I'm in western New York today, at the other end of the state, NYU compiled some terrific statistics that you want to hear about for nearly the past 100 years. It is the annualized returns of six major asset classes. This spans, the Great Depression, a number of recessions, World War Two, the New Deal, gold standard, abandonment, brendawoods, the Cold War, Civil Rights Movements, oil shocks, Volcker rate hikes, the.com boom and crash, the 911, attacks, the housing bubble, covid, 19, AI revolution and 16 presidencies, all those ups and downs and war and peace and economic booms and economic lows, and now there is going to be a mild tongue in cheek element here, because stats like this drive real estate investors crazy, but this is often how mainstream media portrays asset class comparisons. All right, the six asset classes are stocks, cash, bonds, real estate, gold, and then inflation, which isn't in an asset class, but it's a benchmark. All of these begin from the year 1930 so spanning almost 100 years. Let's take it from the lowest return to the high. Best return the lowest is inflation. And what do you think the CPI inflation rate is averaged over the last 100 years? Any guess at all? You might be surprised. It is 3.2% Yeah, even though the Fed's CPI inflation target has long been 2% it runs hot longer than most people believe. So therefore, today's inflation rate isn't high, it's just normal. The next highest return is cash at 3.3% How did NYU measure that the yield from three months T bills? Next up is bonds. They returned 4.3% that's the 10 year treasury average of the last 100 years. The next highest is real estate at 4.7% that uses the K Shiller Index. Now we're up to the second highest. It is gold at 5.6% and the highest is stocks at 10.3% using the s, p5, 100, and this was all laid out in a brilliant chart that also shows the returns by each decade for all of these asset classes. You'll remember that I shared the chart with you in our newsletter a few weeks ago. Now you are smarter and more informed than the layperson is, you know, but they see this chart and they think, Oh, well, that's it. I've got my answer. Real Estate's 4.7% appreciation loses out to gold's 5.6 and stocks 10.3 and then they go back to watching Love is blind. But of course, rental property owners like us know that we often make five times or more than this 4.7% when we consider all those other income streams and profit centers, leverage, rents, ROA and inflation, profiting on our debt, it's often 25 to 30% total. It's sort of like judging a Ferrari by only measuring its cupholders or something. Now, would stocks 10.3% get adjusted up as well? Yeah, probably a little, because the s and p5 100 currently averages a 1.2% dividend yield, so that might be added on the 4.7% return for real estate. That cites the popular Case Shiller Index. And the way that that index works is that it uses a repeat sales methodology. So what that means is that the Case Shiller measures the sales price of the same property over time. Therefore a property would have to sell at least twice in order to be measured by this popular and widely cited K Shiller Index. So then the 4.7% appreciation figure excludes new build homes, and new builds appreciate more than existing homes, but you do have more existing homes that sell the new build homes, so we can pretty safely assume that real estate's long term appreciation rate is higher, likely between five and 6% there it is. So yeah, making comparisons across asset classes like this is pretty tricky, because investment properties leverage and cash flow gets nullified. And when you make comparisons like this, it's a big reminder that even if you can't get much cash flow off a 20 or 25% down real estate payment, sheesh, most people put a 100% payment into stocks, gold or Bitcoin, and they don't expect any cash flow. And Bitcoin isn't part of what we're looking at for this century long view, because it did not exist until 2009 and also NYU had to use some alternative statistics. Sometimes the s, p5, 100 index only came into being in 1957 and the Case Shiller Index 1987

Keith Weinhold 54:02

next week here on the show, I expect to answer your listener questions from beginner to advanced. You've been writing in with some good ones for the production team here at GRE. That's our sound engineer, Vedran Jampa, who has edited every single GRE podcast episode since 2014 QC in show notes, Brenda Almendariz, video lead, brendawali strategy talamagal, video editor, seroza, KC and producer me, we'll run it back next week for you. I'm your host. Keith Weinhold, don't quit your Daydream.

Speaker 3 54:36

Speaker 2 55:04

The preceding program was brought to you by your home for wealth building, get richeducation.com

Direct download: GREepisode583_.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 4:00am EST

Mon, 1 December 2025

Keith discusses seven ways to get a lower mortgage rate, emphasizing the historical impact of the 1940s GI Bill on homeownership and wealth creation.

Caeli Ridge, founder of Ridge Lending Group, digs into smart tactics like adjustable rate mortgages, DSCR loans, and down payment options, plus insider tips on boosting your creditworthiness, timing your rate lock, and planning ahead so you can maximize your returns.

They also explore trends like 50-year mortgages and portable mortgages, and the benefits of FHA and VA loans for first-time buyers.

Resources:

Want expert guidance on your next real estate investment or mortgage? Reach out to Ridge Lending Group for personalized support and a full range of loan options—whether you're a first-time buyer or seasoned investor. Visit ridgelendinggroup.com or call 855-74-RIDGE to take your next step!

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Get mortgage loans for investment property:

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or e-mail: info@RidgeLendingGroup.com

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Complete episode transcript:

Keith Weinhold 0:01

Welcome to GRE. I'm your host. Keith Weinhold, seven ways you can get a lower mortgage interest rate. We'll break them down loan types available to you that you never heard of, and learn how the 1940s GI Bill shaped the mortgage that you get today on get rich education

Speaker 1 0:22

Corey Coates 1:07

You're listening to the show that has created more financial freedom than nearly any show in the world. This is get rich education. You Keith,

Keith Weinhold 1:23

welcome to GRE from the Romanian Black Sea to the Egyptian Red Sea and across 188 nations worldwide. I'm Keith Weinhold, and this is the indefatigable get rich education before we discuss the seven ways that you can get a lower mortgage rate and more in the 1940s before my dad was born, the GI Bill gave veterans returning from World War Two access to cheap home loans, and that single policy decision might have done more to shape the modern American Housing landscape than Anything else in the last 100 years. Think about it, millions of young men, almost kids, really had just spent the better part of their early adulthood in Europe or the Pacific. They came home, married their sweethearts, started families, and suddenly America had this booming demand for housing, but demand alone doesn't build homes. You also need money. You need access to credit, and that's where the GI Bill stepped in. It didn't just thank returning service members for their sacrifice. It handed them something way more powerful, the ability to buy a home with little money down a low interest rate and underwriting standards that would frankly look like a fantasy today, that access to credit sparked one of the biggest housing booms in American history. You had these entire suburbs that sprang up overnight, Levittown in New York, Lakewood in California. These were master planned communities, and they really became a blueprint for Post War America. We had the booming 50s, and this had a lot to do with it. Here's the part that most people don't understand. This wasn't just about housing. This was about wealth creation, because for better or worse, home ownership has been the primary wealth building vehicle for the American middle class these past 100 years, when you give millions of people a subsidized path into property ownership, you're not just giving them a roof. You're giving them equity appreciation, leverage, tax benefits. You're giving them the engine, this flywheel that spins up generational wealth in a lot of ways. The GI Bill is the earliest institutional example of what I at least tell you here on the show, real estate pays five ways. Now they didn't call it that in 1947 but that's exactly what it was. Veterans earned appreciation as suburbs grew. They had amortization working for them, they collected tax advantages. Inflation slowly eroded their fixed rate mortgage balances too. And here's the thing, these weren't even speculative investments. They were homes that they lived in. Now, of course, the GI bill wasn't perfect. It expanded opportunity for millions of people, but it excluded a lot of people too. Lenders and local governments often blocked black veterans and other minorities from accessing the same benefits. That's a whole story unto itself, but the takeaway for today is, when you combine demographic momentum with favorable financing, you can remake a nation, and that's why housing policy still matters today, which we'll get. Two shortly, when you change access to credit or just tweak it, you change the trajectory of families and markets for generations, and the GI Bill proved that. So when we talk about interest rates, affordability, supply shortages, or any of the high frequency housing data that we cover here, remember that the stories aren't just about numbers. They really are about people. They're about giving ordinary Americans the chance to build wealth the same way that those World War Two veterans did through ownership, stability and the quiet compound leverage, not compound interest. Compound leverage that real estate delivers over time.

Keith Weinhold 5:49

I'm bringing you today's show from, I suppose, a somewhat exotic location. I am inside Caesar's Palace, which is right near the very middle of the famed Las Vegas Strip, that's where I'm at. The hotel staff is always accommodative of the show setup. This might seem a little strange to you, because I'm not a gambler. The reason I'm here is that my brother lives 25 minutes away, and I've been with him during Thanksgiving. Next week, I'll bring you the show from Buffalo, New York, and then two weeks from now, I have something heart warming to tell you about that, and it is a real estate story. I'll be broadcasting the show from upstate Pennsylvania. I'll be there to visit my parents. My brother's also coming in from Nevada to be there. That's where the four of us, mom, dad, my brother and I will sit around the same dining room table in the same kitchen of the same home that my parents have lived in since the 1970s nothing has changed, and all four of us know our spots at the table. And actually, it's not even called the dining room table. It is the supper table, as my parents call it so, from flashy Caesar's Palace today to Buffalo and then to Appalachian simplicity in Pennsylvania, the stability and continuity of my parents living in the same home and four wine holds sitting around the table during the holidays, it is so rare. I imagine less than one or 2% of people can do this. I'm just profoundly grateful and proud of Kurt and Penny Weinhold for being the best, most stable parents I could have asked for. It's almost too much to ask, and if you don't have that in your life. Ah, you can do something about that. You can provide the same decency and stability for your children.

Keith Weinhold 7:50

Let's talk about seven proven ways you can get a lower mortgage rate with this week's terrific guest. Though, we'll focus on investment properties. A lot of this applies to primary residences as well.

Keith Weinhold 8:07

We are joined by the founder of the lender that's created more financial freedom for real estate investors than any other mortgage originator in the nation, the eponymous Ridge lending group. And though that sounds impressive, my gosh, she didn't even need that introduction for you the listener, because she's one of the most recurrent guests in show history. Welcome back to GRE Caeli Ridge,

Caeli Ridge 8:30

I am delighted to be here as always, Keith, thank you for your support and acknowledgement. I love what you do, and I'm hoping that I can bring more value today to your listeners in what it is that we do, educating the masses, right?

Keith Weinhold 8:42

You've been doing that here for about 10 years. And yes, we're talking about a woman with a reputation for writing emails in all caps, yet still maintains a great relationship with everybody. I mean, congrats, shaile. I couldn't possibly pull that off myself.

Caeli Ridge 8:58

Thank you, Keith. And you know, I'm going to stay by my all caps, man, it's a speed thing. It all boils down to the number of seconds in the day that I can just move quickly through an email. Yeah, I love my all caps.

Keith Weinhold 9:09

Apparently recipients are still replying, well, you can get a lower mortgage rate in at least seven ways. You can get an adjustable rate mortgage, do a midweek lock in, negotiate seller credits. Have a high credit score. Do a two one buy now, which is kind of old school, but some home builders are using it boost your DTI or buy now, not later. Those are some of the strategies for lowering your mortgage rate. What are your thoughts with regard to that?

Caeli Ridge 9:39

I think all of those are viable. I would just say on the adjust for a mortgage. The pushback I would give there is, is that for residential property, specifically, single family, up to four units, we are not finding that spread between the arm and a 30 year fix. We've been the industry as a whole, secondary specifically been on the inverted yield. Now this gets a little tough. Nickel, and I won't go down that rabbit hole, but 08, 09, the housing and lending crash created an environment within secondary markets where an inverted yield has made a 30 year fixed mortgage more favorable in the rate department. Now that's not always going to be the case. I am a huge fan of the adjustable, but what would work right now is an adjustable with the all in one not to take too much time on that topic, but that would be an adjust rate mortgage that I think would save interest or reduce the rate of which interest is accruing,

Keith Weinhold 10:30

the all in one loan, which we discussed extensively back at the beginning of this year here on the show. Long term, though, I have seen adjustable rate mortgages work for a lot of people, because really, the compelling proposition of the arm is that it guarantees that you get a lower rate in the near term, and yet there's only a chance that you're going to have a higher rate in the long term

Caeli Ridge 10:53

and further. Let's I mean, let's dissect that a little bit. I am a huge proponent. I love an adjustable rate mortgage when the arm is pricing a half or a full percentage point plus over a fixed especially for non owner occupied and the reason for that is, and this is statistically speaking, feel free to look this up, guys, the average shelf life of a mortgage for an investment property is about five years. Great point, right? And we know that if that's the case, right, we're refinancing to harvest equity. We're refinancing maybe to reduce an interest rate from where the market was before, et cetera, et cetera. So that would be the first thing I would say. And then also remember, you guys the first 10 years of an amortized mortgage, 30 year fixed, amortized mortgage, how much of that payment is going to the principal? Because people will often push back by saying, well, either an interest only, or an adjustable and what happens if it changes or it goes up? Most of your payment is going to the interest anyway, and that reset to harvest equity. Borrowed funds are non taxable. We always say that, right? I think it's fully justified. So I love an arm, I just don't know, in comparison to a 30 year fixed today, like a five year ARM versus a 30 year fixed we are in a place that it makes sense, but normally, to your point, absolutely. Fan

Keith Weinhold 12:06

that spread needs to widen for the arm to make more sense. What about doing a mid week rate lock in? Is that a thing?

Caeli Ridge 12:13

Yeah. And you know, I don't have any empirical evidence here. Okay, I don't have any data points that actually prove this, except for 25 years in the business and locking loans every day of my life. There's something about a Monday and a Friday. And I have some conspiracy theories. I don't know that. I it's necessary to share them here, but midweek locks tend to be more favorable in both points and interest rate than you'll find on a Friday and a Monday. I think largely it has to do with, you know, the stock exchanges shutting down for the weekend, right? You got a Friday, you got two days in between. You got foreign markets, and all the things that can explode and happen during that amount of time. So I think they hedge a little bit. So on Friday, going into the weekend, I think that there's something about that and why interest rates are a little less favorable. And then Monday, of course, coming off the weekend, similarly, maybe there's some truth to that too.

Keith Weinhold 13:02

Now, negotiating seller credits has really been a trend to help with affordability. Tell us about specifically what you're seeing there, what's common.

Caeli Ridge 13:11

So we're talking to investors. I can tell you that the loan products you guys are going to have access to are going to cap you, okay, you're going to cap at, per guideline, 2% of the purchase price. Okay, remember that your points that you're paying when you get into locking an interest rate are going to be calculated on the loan size, all right. So the first thing to know is seller paid closing costs, maximum is going to be 2% per underwriting guidelines. That 2% is based on your purchase price. Anything that you're paying points for is going to be on the loan balance, the loan size, so there's going to be a little extra there for you that can contribute or can pay for some other closing costs, right, depending on the numbers. Now, if you're smart enough, or lucky enough, or whatever, the market is viable enough that you can negotiate more than 2% from the seller to pay towards closing costs, you're going to be limited on what you can do on the loan side. But let's say that you go and you've negotiated 4% seller will pay 4% towards your closing costs. Then in that case, you can reduce, you got the two points that you're allowed per guideline. And then you can reduce the purchase price by the difference you don't want to leave that money on the table.

Keith Weinhold 14:15

That's how it's done. And then there's just simply having a higher credit score. What's the highest credit score that really helps you get the lowest mortgage rate for both primary residences and non owner occupied properties. Loan product

Caeli Ridge 14:29

type dependent. But I would say overall, 760 and above is kind of that threshold. There are products that go 780 maybe even on the rare occasion, 800 and above. If I had to pick a number as the absolute pinnacle, I'm going to go 780

Keith Weinhold 14:41

All right, so having a credit score above those thresholds really doesn't help get you a lower interest rate. It's really just a little flex that you've got an 811, credit score, or whatever it is. Now the two, one buy down. That's something that we used to see long ago. A few home builders are bringing it back. And what that does it allow? Homebuyers to pay a lower interest rate for the first two years with the seller covering the difference, and that allows the seller to get their price. They don't have to lower the price of the home at all. But the two one buy down, and you see that written, two, one that has been employed more recently. Tell us about that.

Caeli Ridge 15:18

Well, the builders are struggling in some cases, right? The affordability buzzword is all over the place. So they've had to get creative and find ways in which they can move their inventory. So I think they've done a good job at kind of shaving off some of their margins to satisfy or improve the terms for the consumer. So I like the two. One, if you can get it

Keith Weinhold 15:37

now, one can boost their DTI as well their debt to income ratio and Taylor. When we've talked about that before, we've usually talked about reducing your debts in order to improve your DTI. However, a lot of people don't think about the fact that, oh, well, you can increase your income that lowers your DTI to help you qualify. So tell us what is the max DTI that you can have

Caeli Ridge 16:00

maximum debt to income ratio, in most cases on a full dock loan is going to be 50% now, depending on the type of income that you earn or that you've demonstrated, how you calculate that can get a little bit tricky. But if you're just a straight w2 wage earner, we don't have, you know, commissions or bonuses or anything that we consider variable income, then you just take your gross income times 50% whatever that number is, all of your liabilities on the credit report, we do not count ordinary living expenses like food and gas and utilities and cell phone bills. It's the minimum payments on the credit report. As long as whatever that add up is fits within that 50% you're good to go.

Keith Weinhold 16:37

Now, when it comes to improving our DTI to get a lower mortgage rate, I tend to think it's easier to knock out some debts to improve your DTI. But what about the other side of it? What about increasing your income to improve your DTI, lower your mortgage rate and qualify? Can you talk about some of the strategies for increasing your income with respect to DTI?

Caeli Ridge 17:02

Absolutely. And the biggest one, I think that we probably want to focus on most is going to be on a schedule E, right? That's the one that you're going to have more control over. So when we talk about rental income and how we might be able to boost that first, it might be important to share that there are two ways in underwriting that we will calculate or quantify rental income. The first way is called the acquisition year formula. I'll give you that in just a second. It's very easy, but the way I think we focus on here, because acquisition year is going to be what it is, you're going to have very little ability to manipulate or change that once our rental properties fall on our tax return, specifically the Schedule E of a federal tax return, you as the taxpayer or the borrower are going to have some access to maximize or increase the income, or, let's actually get a little bit more granular there to maximize the gain or minimize the loss, by means of depreciation, maybe a cost seg, maybe we make sure that one time, extraordinary expenses are demonstrated on the tax return in the appropriate way so that underwriting can add those things back. So I know that this sounds technical, but the scheduling is the way that I would say is the easiest for an investor to maximize income, reduce debt to income ratio. And I will close by saying that ridge lending, I think one of our most valued value adds is the ability to help our clients look at their draft tax returns on an annual basis and present them with, Hey, listen, Mr. Jones, if you file this way, this draft tax return, if it files this way, this is what it means to your debt to income ratio. Here's my advice, right? We go into a lot of depth there with our clients.

Keith Weinhold 18:39

That is a smart, long term planning piece that most mortgage companies are not going to give you. They're not going to be forward looking, looking out for your next three years of growing your income property portfolio. And shortly, we'll talk about a way for you to qualify loans where you don't have to show tax returns or W twos or pay stubs. But while we're talking about how to get a lower mortgage rate and some creative ways to do that, I brought up, buy now, not later. And what do I mean by that? What I mean is say, properties appreciate even 3% over time. Buying now, I mean that is going to net you more equity if you buy now rather than waiting, than it would in the savings from a rate drop, when you look at the appreciation run up, however, if rates go up, then you get both the lower price and the lower rate by buying now, not later.

Caeli Ridge 19:32

And I would add to that, we have to remember that in addition to a very modest 3% in the home appreciation, we should be appreciating our rents at even a modest 2% a year, right? Depending on where you are, et cetera. I know that there's exceptions to the rule. And then finally, we got to add in that tax benefit, what you're going to get in your deductions, et cetera, et cetera.

Keith Weinhold 19:51

Yeah, great point. Well, I brought up seven ways that you can get a lower mortgage rate. Can you share a few more with us? Some common ones? Because I know. That almost everyone that calls in there wants to inquire about mortgage rate as well.

Caeli Ridge 20:03

Everybody wants, yep, everybody wants to talk about the rate, despite my vervet opposition to say, do the math. Do the math. Do the math. You know, the easiest one there would be buying down the rate. I'm going to try and formulate an example. Let's say you've got a really high wage earner and in the thick of their earning years, and they're trying to prepare for retirement down the road. It's a longer term burn. They desperately need tax deductions, and the deal that they're looking at, yeah, it's okay, but they want some extra expenses on the Schedule E, maybe they buy the rate down by three even 4% because points on an investment loan transaction are tax deductible, so that might be something, and they obviously benefit from the lower interest rate. Now I may push back on this, and I think again, I know I sound like a broken record here, but we really need to do the math. What are we getting versus what are we giving up to get a 6% or five and a half percent interest rate? What does that mean in real, tangible cost, and what's that? Break even? It's actually a fairly simple calculation. When you just divide the difference in what you're getting versus what you're paying for, and that'll give you the number of months that it takes to recapture the incentive versus the expense. But that would be the easiest one. Keith, I would say buying down points, using paying additional points to get that lower interest rate,

Keith Weinhold 21:20

buying down your rate. It could feel good in the short term, but it's often not the best long term or even intermediate term move when you do the math, as you always like to say, well, you the listener here, you know that you can qualify for mortgage loans, for rental properties without needing a w2 without needing a pay stub and without even needing to show tax returns, because you need all those things for a conventional loan, but for a DSCR loan, debt service coverage ratio, you don't. So talk to us about the pros and cons of a DSCR loan versus a conventional

Caeli Ridge 21:53

loan. Okay? And I've got a hook here too, because I think the listeners are gonna be very, very pleased to hear at the end of this statement, what's happening with DSCR in conjunction or comparison, rather to the conventional so DSCR everybody means debt service, coverage ratio. It's a very simple formula. We are going to take the gross rents and divide it by the principal and interest and taxes and insurance and association. If it applies, that's it.

Keith Weinhold 22:18

$1,000 in gross rents, $800 in p i, t i, that yields a DSCR of 1.25 Correct?

Caeli Ridge 22:25

Yes, you're absolutely right. The one that I use as I, just to keep it simple, is 1000 rents, 1000 piti. That's a 1.0 right? As long as the gross rents are equal or greater than the p i, t i, you're going to be in a position to get the more favorable rates. Now that's not to say that we can't go below a 1.0 ratio. You can actually have a property, we have products that will allow the DSCR to be a point seven five. That would mean, in this scenario, if you had rents, gross rents of 750, and the piti was 1000 you can actually get that loan done. That is allowed. The rate gets a little bit hairy. So more often than not, we're at the 1.0 and above. So this is just a really great way for investors who are either recently self employed, maybe they're adjusted gross, they just write everything off for reasons that you can imagine. Why? Right? They don't want to pay the taxes. It could be 100 different reasons. The DSCR option is such a great solution to provide a 30 year fixed mortgage same same similar leverage, if not sometimes even better than a Fannie Freddie, than a conventional loan, you can usually leverage a little bit more, in some cases, on a DSCR like a two to four, for example, two to four unit residential property, Fannie Freddie, they kind of cut those loan to values a little bit, and the DSCR loans don't care about that. So you can get the same leverage as a single family would in a DSCR. The only other primary difference is these DSCR loans are going to come with prepayment penalties. Typically, the standard is about three years, but we're usually not refinancing in the first 36 months. Anyway, if you know that that's applicable to you, then you'd have to buy the prepay down or out, which you can do otherwise. DSCR is amazing. Oh, and I'll give you the little hook here. So something I have observed this is maybe very recent 4550 ish days, the margin for interest rate difference between conventional and DSCR is really starting to narrow. DSCR products are really performing well, and that interest rate improvements that we've been seeing for those products is not far off from what the Fannie Freddie's are, and I've even seen examples where DSCR beats a 30 year fixed Fannie Freddie rate. Now those are for the higher loan amounts. I can explain if you want, but otherwise, that's good news.

Keith Weinhold 24:36

Okay, this is really good news. It's a time in the cycle where dscrs could very well make sense for you without that huge documentation Shakedown that you need with W twos and pay stubs and everything else. There are a lot of nascent trends in the mortgage industry, and we're trying to separate some of them from being rumors, from being something that can truly happen. We're talking about 50 year mortgages and poor. Affordable mortgages. More on that. When we come back, you're listening to get rich education. Our guest is Ridge lending Group President, Chaley Ridge

Keith Weinhold 25:07

You know, most people think they're playing it safe with their liquid money, but they're actually losing savings accounts and bonds don't keep up when true inflation eats six or 7% of your wealth. Every single year, I invest my liquidity with FFI freedom family investments in their flagship program. Why fixed 10 to 12% returns have been predictable and paid quarterly. There's real world security backed by needs based real estate like affordable housing, Senior Living and health care. Ask about the freedom flagship program. When you speak to a freedom coach there, and that's just one part of their family of products, they've got workshops, webinars and seminars designed to educate you before you invest, start with as little as 25k and finally, get your money working as hard as you do. Get started at Freedom family investments.com/gre, or send a text now it's 1-937-795-8989, yep, text their freedom. Coach, directly, again. 1-937-795-8989,

Keith Weinhold 26:18

The same place where I get my own mortgage loans is where you can get yours. Ridge lending group and MLS, 42056, they provided our listeners with more loans than anyone because they specialize in income properties. They help you build a long term plan for growing your real estate empire with leverage, start your pre qual and even chat with President Chaley Ridge personally, while it's on your mind, start at Ridge lending group.com, that's Ridge lending group.com

Dana Dunford 26:50

this is hemlanes co founder, Dana Dunford. Listen to get rich education with Keith Weinhold, and don't quit your Daydream.

Keith Weinhold 26:58

welcome back to get rich education. We're talking with Ridge lending Group President and Founder, Chaley Ridge about how you can get lower mortgage rates, and also about some trends in the industry, separating what's really a rumor in what could really happen squaring on 50 year mortgages and portable mortgages, those are both things only being discussed by the administration to help with affordability. FHFA Director Bill Pulte created some jarring news recently when he publicized this. What are your thoughts on the 50 year mortgage?

Caeli Ridge 27:39

You know, on a primary residence basis, I'm not so sure I need to maybe put some more thought into that. But for an investment property, I love it. Man, anything to keep that payment down so that, because, remember, we talked about earlier in the show here the percentage of mortgages, let's just use our 30 year fixed for a second that for a rental property that start on day one and then stroke a check 360 times later to pay that to zero. Is a fraction of a percent right? We are refinancing these things. We are selling them and doing 1031 exchanges. So anything that can keep my cash flow higher and my payment lower, I am all for it. Now, the people that push back and say, Well, I want to pay off my mortgage in 15 years. I don't want to pay extra interest, you are welcome to do that. So there's a second piece to this that I think is equally as important as maximizing cash flow, and that is your qualification. All right, if this comes to pass, and right now, it could just be noise, okay, and I'm speaking specifically for investment property, but if this is available to us, the debt to income ratio component, because think about it like this. So I'm going to keep using my 15 year and my 30 year, because that's kind of what we understand. The payment difference between a 30 year 360 month and a 15 year 180 month can be substantial depending on the loan size. I mean, it can be hundreds and hundreds of dollars for the individual that is dead set and say, I don't want to pay the higher interest. I want to pay these things off. We may have arguments about that whole strategy to begin with, but overall, if they still want to do that and that's their decision, Fine, take the 30 year fixed payment. Take the 30 year fixed mortgage. Apply the difference. You can figure out that payment difference very easily. Apply it religiously. Every month. You will cross the finish line in about 15.4 years. Download an amortization calculator online. You can find them everywhere. Plug in your numbers, and you'll see what I'm talking about. If you were to do this, let's say the difference is 200 bucks a month, and you send it in every month with your 30 year fixed mortgage payment, you will cross the finish line to pay that thing off in about 15.4 years. So yes, you'll pay a few extra months of interest. But what have you done to your qualifications, right, your payment now on your debt to income ratio, when we're looking at this thing for a future optimization, never take the shorter term amortization, ever, ever, ever, you won't pay the higher interest that the 30 year or the 50 Year will probably come with because you've accelerated the payoff so long, if that's your choice. Now for everybody else that really wants. To maximize that cash flow. And they get that, they're going to be refinancing this every five, six, whatever it is, years take it, man, I am all for the longer term amortization on a rental.

Keith Weinhold 30:10

I agree with you. I even like the 50 year on a primary residence, but yeah, Chaley, right here on the show, several weeks before Bill Pulte made the announcement, I actually talked about the 50 year mortgage and compared it to the 30 and the reasons that I like it because I knew there was a chance it could be coming, since this administration is trying to do so much to help out with affordability, people buy based on a payment, not a price that lowers the payment. A 50 year mortgage helps you benefit from inflation, and there are a lot of other advantages that have to do with that, although you probably are going to pay a higher interest rate on a 50 than you would a 30. And you know, Chaley, when the 30 year mortgage had its Advent just after World War Two, I'm going to guess 75 years ago, people were having this same conversation like, oh, 30 years, my gosh, you're never going to pay off the home. And really, that's not what it's about.

Caeli Ridge 31:01

Not at all, not at all. And remember, you guys, I would encourage everybody listening to this to actually go get that amortization table and see how much interest is baked in and how it is applied and paid. It is the back end of any of these amortized mortgages where the principal actually starts to get applied in a meaningful way. The 50 year mortgage, or the longer term amortization is a huge advantage. I'm speaking for investors. Mostly. I love it.

Keith Weinhold 31:26

Some people say, are you nuts? Look at how much more interest you're paying over the life of the loan on a 50 year mortgage versus a 30 year mortgage. We already touched on that you're not going to keep that loan for the life of it, and if you just take the difference from the lower payment that a 50 Year gives you, and invest that in 8% return, you are going to crush 2x to 3x oftentimes, what the paltry interest savings are over several decades,

Caeli Ridge 31:26

and somebody else is making that payment right. We have tenants that are responsible

Keith Weinhold 31:47

100% and then there's something that I don't know if portable mortgages would fly. And what this means is that when borrowers move, they could keep the rate, keep their term and keep their lender, presumably for the new home you might have seen it in the news. You the listener that Fannie May remove the minimum credit score requirements from desktop underwriting. And Chaley, I think you let me know elsewhere that those changes don't affect non owner occupied, but of course, it could affect the broader housing market in pricing. What are your thoughts about lowering the credit score requirement

Caeli Ridge 32:28

so similar to the portable stuff, until it really reaches mainstream and it affects the non owner occupied I'm not deep diving into those things. The basis of it, though, is, is that, yeah, they're removing that minimum credit score requirement from a du underwrite that stands for desktop underwriter, as you said, that is Fannie Mae's sophisticated, automated underwriting system, and I think it's just going to give more eligibility to lower income households and people trying to become homeowners that have found the barrier for entry very restrictive because They have credit issues.

Keith Weinhold 33:00

Well, let's talk about FHA and VA loans, something that we have rarely, if ever touched on. Our listeners know that I started out making my first ever property of any kind, an FHA loan with three and a half percent down on a fourplex, living in one unit, renting out the other three. Tell us about some trends there in FHA and VA loans

Caeli Ridge 33:21

we actually just did house hack campaign. We did a webinar on it, co living, all those different ways in which, you know, the younger generation, especially, and this is true for anyone. I don't want to pigeonhole it, can get themselves into home ownership and propel them into the real estate investing as an asset class. I am such a big fan of this model, in this strategy, for anybody that's interested and willing to kind of coal mingle or habitat, like you did a four Plex at three and a half percent down, you've got three tenants that are making your mortgage payment. VA, likewise, any of the Gubby loans, which include VA, FHA, USDA, you can get high, high leverage and up to four units. So I'm a huge fan of that. And then the CO living is another thing that I think is not quite mainstream, but I think it's gaining steam

Keith Weinhold 34:09

for those that don't know what we're talking about, you can use an FHA loan with a three and a half percent down payment, as long as you live in one of the units, your credit score can even be pretty low, and you can do that with a single family home, duplex, triplex or fourplex. You can get those same benefits with a VA loan and zero down

Caeli Ridge 34:29

USDA also zero down if you're in the right zip code. How does one qualify for a USDA loan? You know, there's a website I would have you check out. We don't do a ton of those. We have the ability, of course, but there's income restrictions and all of this. They've got, actually, a pretty slick website where you can go online, type in the zip code, make sure it's in a rural area, what your income is. There's all these inputs, and it'll tell you if you'd be a candidate for it. But yeah, it's good. Rates zero down. I like the product.

Keith Weinhold 34:56

Well, there have been a lot of newsy items when it comes. Comes to mortgages. Caeli and I think we should drop back before we're done here and talk about the basics. Just basically, what does it take to get a non owner occupied loan for residential income property?

Caeli Ridge 35:12

You know, there's so many options for investors today that I would say that if you have access to and even with what we just said, house hack. I mean, listen, if you've got 3% down, three and a half percent down, you can probably assure yourself you can get into a property. And if you can't qualify from a income debt to income ratio perspective, you've got three or four other models, which include DSCR, bank statement loans, asset depletion loans, overall, I would say that this is an individual conversation. Chances are you could probably qualify today, and if you can't, one of the things that I love about Ridge lending is, is that we're going to help you plant the seeds and show you how to qualify. If it takes you three months or six months or a year, that's what we do.

Keith Weinhold 35:56

Yeah, we've definitely noticed the difference here and that you do help that investor with long term planning? I do my own loans at ridge, and my assistant here at GRE she recently got the ball rolling with you in there at Ridge as well.

Caeli Ridge 36:11

Brenda, yes, yes, that was fantastic. We are very looking forward to helping her.

Keith Weinhold 36:16

Well, you know, chili, I've come here with a lot of questions that I had. What's the question No one's asking you, but you wish that they would.

Caeli Ridge 36:25

I think it probably would be for me, planning. You know, we get a lot of questions about interest rates. That's kind of top of mind for everybody. More about planning, having people that are interested in real estate as an asset class and an investment have the conversations to say, this is where I'm at today. This is where I'd like to be in five years. Tell me how to get there, and we can have those high level conversations that really sort of reverse engineer it and say, Okay, this is where you stand today from an underwriting perspective. This is where you need to be, and here's how we're going to get you there. It's always about planting seeds and creating those roadmaps, as I like to say so I would say that that would be top of my list.

Keith Weinhold 37:02

That's exactly what you do in there, and that's really what sets you apart. Well, remind our audience how they can get a hold of ridge.

Caeli Ridge 37:11

Yes, there's a couple ways. Of course, our website, Ridge lending group.com Please email us info at Ridge lending group.com and then call us toll free. 855-747-4343, 855-74-RIDGE is an easy way to remember.

Keith Weinhold 37:25

It's really been valuable this time. Chaley, thanks so much for coming back onto the show.

Caeli Ridge 37:29

Appreciate you. Keith.

Keith Weinhold 37:36

Oh yeah, good pointed info from Chaley over at Ridge, I think that the important things for you to remember from our conversation is that, gosh, isn't it so glaring like in your face that you have options. All these options when you engage with a lender, you're going to learn that there are probably loan programs that you've never even heard of, some that you might fit into and even if you aren't adding more property, if you're not in that phase, there are ways that you can take your existing loans and consolidate them or refinance them, or use them to produce a tax free windfall for yourself and the US is often the envy of other world nations with the flexibility that we have here in our mortgage market. I've never known anyone that does this better than Chaley and her team. I mean, they are real difference makers. If you learn something on today's show, hey, Don't hoard the good stuff. Engage in the nicest kind of wealth redistribution. Tap the Share button right now and share this on social, or text this episode to one friend who'd appreciate it. That would mean the world to me. I'm your host. Keith Weinhold, don't quit your Daydream.

Speaker 2 38:57

Nothing on this show should be considered specific personal or professional advice, please consult an appropriate tax, legal, real estate, financial or business professional for individualized advice. Opinions of guests are their own. Information is not guaranteed. All investment strategies have the potential for profit or loss. The host is operating on behalf of get rich Education LLC, exclusively

Keith Weinhold 39:25

The preceding program was brought to you by your home for wealth building, getricheducation.com

Direct download: GREepisode582__.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 4:00am EST

Mon, 24 November 2025

581: I Really Mean It

Keith tells how much he paid for his first property and how he traded up for more and larger properties.

He highlights the benefits of owning real estate, noting that 63% of the median American's net worth is in home equity and retirement accounts, while the top 1% has 45% in private business and real estate.

He also shares his personal journey and emphasizes using other people's money to grow assets.

Discover why outdated rent control policies harm housing supply and affordability.

Learn innovative ways to turn your property’s unused spaces into effortless cash flow with today’s best peer-to-peer platforms.

Sign up at GREletter.com to grow your means, and join a thriving community passionate about breaking free from financial limits!

Resources:

These platforms let property owners creatively monetize underutilized spaces.

Neighbor.com – Rent out your garage, basement, driveway, or unused space.

Swimply.com – Rent out your swimming pool by the hour.

StoreAtMyHouse.com – Rent out your attic, closet, or other home storage spaces.

SniffSpot.com – Rent out your backyard as a private dog park.

PureStorage.co – Rent out extra storage space such as garages or sheds.

PeerSpace.com – Rent out your space (home, backyard, loft, warehouse, etc.) for events, meetings, or photoshoots.

Episode Page:

GetRichEducation.com/581

For access to properties or free help with a

GRE Investment Coach, start here:

GRE Free Investment Coaching: GREinvestmentcoach.com

Get mortgage loans for investment property:

RidgeLendingGroup.com or call 855-74-RIDGE

or e-mail: info@RidgeLendingGroup.com

Invest with Freedom Family Investments.

For predictable 10-12% quarterly returns, visit FreedomFamilyInvestments.com/GRE or text 1-937-795-8989 to speak with a freedom coach

Will you please leave a review for the show? I’d be grateful. Search “how to leave an Apple Podcasts review”

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580: AI Landlords: Are Robots Managing Rentals Better Than Humans?

Complete episode transcript:

Keith Weinhold 0:01

Welcome to GRE. I'm your host. Keith Weinhold, talking about how I personally built and grew wealth myself with real numbers and real properties, what a rent freeze actually means to you, and how you could be losing income by not creatively generating more rent from properties that you already own. I'll talk about exactly how today on Get Rich Education.

Speaker 1 0:27

Since 2014 the powerful get rich education podcast has created more passive income for people than nearly any other show in the world. This show teaches you how to earn strong returns from passive real estate investing in the best markets without losing your time being a flipper or landlord. Show Host Keith Weinhold writes for both Forbes and Rich Dad advisors and delivers a new show every week since 2014 there's been millions of listener downloads of 188 world nations. He has a list show guests include top selling personal finance author Robert Kiyosaki. Get rich education can be heard on every podcast platform, plus it has its own dedicated Apple and Android listener phone apps build wealth on the go with the get rich education podcast. Sign up now for the get rich education podcast, or visit get rich education.com

Corey Coates 1:12

You're listening to the show that has created more financial freedom than nearly any show in the world. This is get rich education.

Keith Weinhold 1:29

Welcome to GRE from Stonehenge, England to Stone Mountain, Georgia and across 188 nations worldwide. I'm Keith Weinhold, and you're listening to get rich education. I visited Stonehenge and made, by the way, today I'm back for another incomprehensibly slack jawed performance here, still a shaved mammal too. Status hasn't changed. And remain profligate and unrepentant about the whole thing. You probably know it by now that if you're listening here and you want to learn and do things the same way that everyone else does things, then you are squarely in the wrong place. I really mean it more on that later. But you know, Wall Street doesn't scorn real estate because it's risky. They dislike it because it doesn't scale the way that they need it to private real estate can get messy, operational, illiquid. Every real estate deal is different. Every market has its own physics. You can't package it into a fund with a push button deploy strategy. And that's precisely the point. The modern financial system rewards frictionless products that trade constantly and generate fees instead building real, durable wealth has never been frictionless. Here's what the wealth distribution actually shows for the median American. 63% of net worth is in home equity and retirement accounts. For the top 10% that tier, 25% is in real estate and private business ownership. But for the top 1% that highest tier, 45% combined is in private business equity and real estate. So as you approach the top 1% it's more skewed toward owning a business and directly owning real estate. Wall Street, they only offer derivative exposure to real estate through mega funds and REITs. But exposure isn't ownership. Your best risk adjusted returns live in the deals that are too small and too messy for institutions to touch, and that's where your yield lives. The control, the opportunity, the world's enduring fortunes weren't built just by buying exposure. They were built by owning things, land companies, assets that require some sweat to get them going. The next decade favors owners over allocators, the stuff that pays you perpetual dividends. So the irony is that the very things Wall Street avoids the messy hands on part of real estate. Oh, well, that's what makes it such a powerful wealth builder. And see, even, as we somewhat found out last week when we talked about AI property management here on the show, you can't fully automate relationships or construction or management, but that friction is exactly where the margin lives. What makes real estate frustrating for institutions is exactly what makes it valuable for operators and long term owners like you and I. It's the nuance, the inefficiency and the need to actually. Know something about a market, rather than just model it. Wealth that lasts comes from assets that you can influence, not just monitor, and that is the difference between you having mere exposure and true ownership. You can't outsource legacy, the messy path of ownership is often where meaning in real freedom is found. You've got to tend to the garden somewhat, whether your properties are professionally managed or self managed, but some people get overwhelmed if they're asked for a log in and a password, even we all know that feeling somewhat well, then they stay metaphorically logged out of success. Think about how easy remotely managing your real estate portfolio is today. Sheesh 200 years ago. There was no anesthesia. We had smallpox, brutal physical labor, no electricity today. What if a website tells you that you've got to reset your password? Oh my gosh, is the deal often just overwhelming? Can you imagine the effort now, two weeks ago, I mentioned to you that I went back and visited the first piece of real estate that I ever owned, that seminal blue fourplex. But did I ever tell you how I grew that seed into a massive real estate portfolio, and how you can do it by following GRE principles? Let me take you through the early steps here so you can see how you can get something similar going. Of course, your path will look different, but this is going to spawn a lot of ideas for you. I think you already know about my 10k to 11k down payment into that first ever fourplex as the FHA three and a half percent down. Owner occupied, but I didn't buy another piece of real estate for over three years, because real estate just was not that driving thing in my life yet. So I lived in one of those really modest four Plex units longer than I had to three plus years after that, I moved out to a pretty modest, still single family home five miles away, that I had just bought. And since I vacated one of the four Plex units in order to do that. Now, I had four rent incomes instead of three. But here is really the pivot point with what happened next. Now, what would most people do? They might hold on to that four Plex, keep self managing it, and when they could, perhaps aggressively, make principal payments, getting the building paid off before its organic 30 year amortization period. And then what else would they do once it was paid off? Say that would take them 12 years, which would entail a lot of sacrifice, like working overtime at their job and skipping vacations. Oh, they think something like, Oh, now the cash flow is really going to pour in with his paid off fourplex? Yeah, it sure would increase a lot, but after 12 years of toil and sacrifice cashflow off of one fourplex still wouldn't even let you quit your job. Staying small doesn't work, plus you live below your means for a really long time that is sweat and time that you're never going to relinquish. You started working for money. Rather than letting other people's money take over and work for you, it is right there waiting to do that for you. So instead of that path, what I did is when equity ran up in that first fourplex building. Its value increased from 295, to 425, in three and a third years, I did exactly the opposite. I borrowed the maximum out of that first fourplex building, 90% CLTV, and used those tax free funds. Yeah, tax free funds, when you do that to both spend money, well on vacations and make a 10% down payment on a second fourplex building that costs 530k now I'm still living in the single family home while I've got the two fourplex buildings, both with 90% loans on them, still cashflowing A little so eight rent incomes, more debt than I ever had, 10 to one leverage on two fourplexes, and this was all less than five years from the time that I bought the first fourplex. And yes, it probably took some password resets in there. Then next I learned that investing in only one Metro, which is what I had done to that point, that's actually pretty risky, because all eight of my rent incomes, plus my own primary residence, were exposed to the whims fortunes and misfortunes of only one economy. This was in 2012 now, so I started buying turnkey single family. Rentals in other economies that make sense. Investor advantage places is what you've got to look for, Florida, Texas, Ohio, Alabama, Tennessee. My first turnkey was bought in the Dallas Fort Worth metro. I know I've told you that before, all right, but how was I buying more even though I was still working a day job in a cubicle for the D, o, t. Well, it wasn't from my job, because that job is working for money. What it was is borrow tax free and grow, borrow tax free and grow, borrow tax free and grow. By then, enough equity had accumulated in the first two fourplexes that I traded, one for an eight Plex and the other for an 11 Plex. Now we're getting up to $3,500 of monthly cashflow at this point, which is probably 5k plus per month in inflation adjusted terms. And the 8plex cost 760k and the 11 Plex cost 850k back then, and I still remember that that was a big day for me back then, those buildings closed on either the same day or on consecutive days. I forget. Well, that was 1.6 million in purchases. Maybe that's two to two and a half million in today's dollars. And see that is sure more than what one paid off fourplex would have given me on that old slow track, yet I had all of this faster than waiting 12 years to aggressively pay off one fourplex. And you know, some could say back at that time, they would look at that situation from the outside and say, Keith, where did you get the money to make 20% down payments on that 1.6 million worth of real estate, that is 320k cash? Did you save up all the money? No, I didn't. I didn't have the ability to save that much money at my job. Did you use your existing properties like ATMs, raiding one property to buy another. Yeah, that's exactly what I did. That is the use of other people's money that is wiser than spending my time away from loved ones by selling my time for dollars that I'm never going to get back. And by the way, I have always been the sole owner of properties. No partners here. Now, at this point, I've got dozens of running units spread across multiple states, all professionally managed. And by the way, eight doors is the most that I've ever self managed, because I got professional management involved after that. Oh, there are a ton of lessons in there about what I just told you, many of them, which I've sprinkled through more than 500 episodes now, but now that I told you where I came from, do you know the lesson that I want to leave you with here on this one, for the most part, it's that I'm not even using my own money to do this now, I did add some of my own money for down payments. Sure, by far the minority portion, primarily and centrally. I keep leveraging the bank's money, and they make the down payment for me on the next property. Borrow tax free and grow, borrow tax free and grow, borrow tax free and grow. Yes, the pace of you doing this is going to fluctuate over time, but that is the playbook that I just gave you right there. Now I've done it in cycles that feel slower because appreciation is lower, but interest rates tend to be lower during those times. And I keep doing it in cycles that move faster because appreciation is higher and interest rates tend to be higher during those times. I've done it when lending was loose, like pre Dodd Frank, and I've done it when lending was tight and inflationary. Times supercharged this whole thing. Sooner than later, you would rather get $5 million worth of real estate out there under your belt, all floating up with inflation and appreciation, not just $1 million worth, $1 million worth, that's more like sticking with one fourplex and trying to pay it off. Anything worth doing, anything in your life is worth doing. Well, look, other people's money is still available to me and to you. So using my own money back when I was an employee, I mean, that's exactly when I would have had to trade more of my finite time for dollars and see, that's what the masses do, and that's precisely what keeps them as the mediocre masses. I really mean it. Now, I wanted to make things real for you with that soliloquy.

Keith Weinhold 14:47

Later today, I'll discuss the GRE principles. Did that formative story spawn? A few weeks ago, it made substantial news inside and outside the real estate world that Zohran Mamdani was elected to be the next New York City Mayor. His first day on the job will be the first of the coming year. And actually, it's easy for you to remember how New York City mayoral terms work, because it is the same as the President of the United States. Each term lasts four years, and they can serve up to two consecutive terms eight years. Let's you and I listen into the audio from this short video clip together. This Mamdani campaign spot ran back before election day, but it tells you what he stands for and where he's coming from with regard to rent. In a slightly corny way, the ad shows various tenants popping their heads out of apartment windows and such, saying like, Hey, wait, what? You're going to freeze my rent?

Speaker 2 15:50

I'm Assemblyman Zohran Mamdani, and I'm running for mayor to freeze the rent for every rent stabilized tenant.

Unknown Speaker 15:57

Wait, you're gonna freeze my rent?

Speaker 3 15:59

Yes, did I hear rent freeze?

Speaker 4 16:02

Yes, this guy's gonna freeze the rent. No. Pike none. This guy's gonna freeze the

Unknown Speaker 16:09

rent. It's true.

Dani-Lynn Robison 16:12

As your next mayor, I will freeze your rent paid for by Zoran for NYC.

Speaker 5 16:17

The banner at the end of the ad reads, Zoran for an affordable New York City. Oh, yeah, slogans like that are so catchy for anything. All right, he says he's going to freeze the rent for every rent stabilized tenant. And rent control and rent stabilization, they mean very similar things, ceilings on the rent. I'm soon going to tell you what I think about that, and I've got more on Mamdani shortly, but it's not going to be political This is not that kind of show. This is an investing show. I think that even our foreign listeners know how big and influential New York City is. It's not the political capital, but it is the capital of so many things in the United States, it's America's largest city by far, eight and a half million just in the city proper, 20 million in the metro. And New York's growing in sheer number of people. The Metro gained more population than any other city, almost a quarter million people added just last year, even if you doubled the population of the second largest city, LA, New York City would still be larger. All right. Well, how did we get here? A quick story of New York City rent control is that in 1918 New York City passed its first flavor of rent control, and that was the first US city to do so that didn't solve the problem. So in 1943 Congress passed the emergency price control act, and its name implied a temporary patch during World War Two. But even after it expired, and even after the war ended, New York State chose to make it basically permanent in 1950 that didn't solve the problem. So in 1962 New York state passed a law allowing cities to enact expanded rent control if they declared a, quote, housing emergency. Well, New York City did, and that housing emergency has essentially continued unresolved. Still, what they consider an emergency condition persists today, yeah, all these decades later. I mean, really a what, 60 to 70 year long emergency condition that didn't solve the problem. So in 1969 new york city passed what they called rent stabilization. It's really just a new flavor of rent control, and this greatly expanded the number of properties that were subject to these rent regulations. And about half of New York City's apartments are subject to that law that didn't solve the problem. So more expansion and more tweaks of regulating the rent were made in the decades that followed. You had notable ones in 1997 2003 2011 in 2015 but none of them solved the problem. So in 2019 New York expanded rent stabilization to include what they call vacancy control. Now what that means is rent caps are now applied to new renters, not just those existing tenants renewing a lease, and it also granted more tenant protections that didn't solve the problem. So in 2024 New York State passed what they call good cause eviction. That is a third expansion of rent regulation in these tenant protections. This time, they just gave it a slick name, kind of apropos of Madison Avenue's famed market. Marketing prowess. I suppose that didn't solve the problem. And by the way, rent caps came in below not only the rate of inflation, but also below household income growth almost every year over the last decade, and in some years, no increase was allowed at all. That is a rent freeze. But that didn't work either. And meanwhile, New York's public housing agency has 80 billion in deferred maintenance needs, and it's running a $200 million plus operating deficit. So government run housing that hasn't worked either. All right? Well, that brings us to 2025 where New York City is electing a mayor who campaign on freezing the rents and expanding public housing. So New York City now has, for over a century, chosen to expand and rebrand these ideas that just haven't worked, and yet they keep coming back for more and yeah, what exactly is the word for doubling and tripling and quadrupling down on ideas that have proven not to work? Is that word stupidity? Hmm, so throughout that history that I just brought you from 1918 whenever I say that didn't work, what do I mean by that? And here's the big takeaway for you. What I mean is that rent control hasn't worked in New York City because it discourages landlords from maintaining rental housing, and certainly from building new rental housing. So what that does is that it shrinks the supply over time When demand exceeds supply, you know what happens to price? And in Manhattan, just the studio apartment now averages $4,150 and the average rent citywide, that's Manhattan, Brooklyn, Queens, the Bronx and Staten Island, which does include some rough areas in this average rent is $3,560 so as a result, what really happens here is that rent control helps a few lucky tenants while driving up rents and then worsening the shortages for everyone else. So what is the solution here? It is simple. Actually do less. I mean, isn't it great when you can solve a problem in your life by actually doing less? Yeah, drop the regulations against building and drop all forms of rent control, that way we'll have more building, and with higher supply, natural price discovery could take place. So he says he's going to freeze the rent for every rent stabilized tenant. And you can start to understand why we don't discuss investing in New York City Housing very much on GRE what we do. We talk about it as a model of what not to do. The good news is that I don't have any evidence of rent control spreading into the investor advantage areas that we talk about here, like the southeast and the south central part of the United States and the Midwest. But here's the thing, just ask yourself this question, what if there was a force imposed on you by popular vote that froze your income. Okay, I'm talking about no matter what you do from work you're a software engineer, a doctor, a nurse, a paralegal, a carpenter. Would you think that was really unjust if your profession were singled out, and then voters said, hey, no more raises for you. We don't care if there's inflation, we don't care if you're getting better at your job. We don't care if you have rising expenses. We're going to put a cap on your income. How would you like that? Well, look, in New York City, they're voting for landlord's income to be frozen. They are singling out one profession, and these are really important people. These are the housing providers. So by the way, I've heard two people describe New York City mayor elect Zohran mandami. Is a good looking man? Is he good looking? I had to go look again. When people said this, I guess he's not bad looking. And hey, despite being a heterosexual male, I can say that some guys are good looking. I just never thought that with him.

Speaker 5 24:32

Now, do you have one friend kind of have that type of friend who always just seems to know what's happening in the housing market? Well, that person could be you. There is a way to do that. Boom, it's easy, and you're going to sound smart without reading a single boring, fed report. I don't sell courses. I don't wear sunglasses indoors, and I definitely don't tell you. To flip houses on Tiktok. I just talk here, and I send you a smart, short real estate newsletter. That's it. This is smart stuff that you can brag about at boring dinner parties, and you've got a lot of those coming up here at the holidays. It is free. I write our letter myself, and I'd love to have you as a reader, sign up at greletter.com it's quick and easy. Your future wealth will thank you for it. See what I did there. It takes less than three minutes to read, and it is super informative. GREletter.com Again, that's greletter.com, I've got more straight ahead.

Keith Weinhold 25:45

You know, most people think they're playing it safe with their liquid money, but they're actually losing savings accounts and bonds don't keep up when true inflation eats six or 7% of your wealth. Every single year, I invest my liquidity with FFI freedom family investments in their flagship program. Why? Fixed 10 to 12% returns have been predictable and paid quarterly. There's real world security backed by needs based real estate like affordable housing, Senior Living and health care. Ask about the freedom flagship program when you speak to a freedom coach there, and that's just one part of their family of products, they've got workshops, webinars and seminars designed to educate you before you invest. Start with as little as 25k and finally, get your money working as hard as you do. Get started at Freedom family investments.com/gre or send a text now it's 1-937-795-8989, yep, text their freedom coach, directly again. 1-937-795-8989

Keith Weinhold 26:57

the same place where I get my own mortgage loans is where you can get yours. Ridge lending group and MLS, 42056, they provided our listeners with more loans than anyone because they specialize in income properties. They help you build a long term plan for growing your real estate empire with leverage. Start your prequel and even chat with President chailey Ridge personally while it's on your mind, start at Ridge lending group.com that's Ridge lending group.com

Dani-Lynn Robison 27:30

this is freedom family investments, co founder day. Lynn Robinson, listen to get rich education with Keith Weinhold, and don't quit your Daydream.

Keith Weinhold 27:37

welcome back to get reciprocation. I'm your host. Keith Weinhold, earlier this year, I talked to you about new ways where you can generate more income from the properties that you already own, and doing that through peer to peer leasing platforms, I got feedback from you that you loved it when I talked about it on that episode. Well, I've got more of them to tell you about today. This is exciting. Is there money sitting right under your nose and you haven't even collected it yet? And sometimes this happens in the world. This has nothing to do with finding Uranus, but it is similar to how they just discovered a new moon of Uranus, even though it's only six miles wide. Yes, that's something that scientists recently discovered, yes, much like this new small moon of Uranus that was really always there, but just discovered, metaphorically, this is what we're talking about with your real estate here now. This is a lot like how Airbnb rattled the hotel world about 15 years ago. These platforms let you rent out space and amenities that you already own but barely use. Neighbor.com, is the first one. I'm not going to say.com every time, because most of them are that way, and they've got a mobile app of the same name, all right, neighbor that's like Airbnb for your garage or your basement or even that creepy crawl space that you never go into. So instead of letting junk collect dust, you rent out your unused space to people who need that storage, meaning then that their clutter pays your mortgage. So customers request space and then you approve it. That's how it works. In fact, we have a woman here on staff at get rich education that easily made about 1000 bucks personally on neighbor, she rented out a parking space in her driveway. She rented that space to a college student that needed a place to park her car while she went back home for the summer. You can easily do that too. Then there. Swimply, S, W, I, M, P, L, Y, rent out your pool by the hour. Yes, your pool is no longer just for cannonballs, awkward barbecues and tanning sessions that you regret, although not typically, I've read about how some people have made passive income streams of $15,000 per month this way. I mean, gosh, did Marco Polo just get turned into a side hustle? Or what that is, swimply. Then there is store@myhouse.com Do you have an empty closet or an attic? You can turn that into a treasure vault for stranger stuff, and you can get paid while their clutter hides in your home instead of their home. So think of it as maybe some pretty passive income, only dustier, and who even lives there in your attic right now? Anyway, a bunch of raccoons. They're not paying your rent again. That is called store at my house. Sniff spot. It turns your backyard into a private dog park. Yeah, local pet owners can book your yard by the hour to let their pups run and sniff and play. You provide the grass. They bring the zoomies, and you pocket the cash that is sniff spot, Pure Storage. That one is a.co when people need storage, you swoop in like a friendly capitalist neighbor with your extra space. So you rent out your garage or a shed, or, say, even a corner of your basement, and you watch empty become income, you are basically running a mini Self Storage empire without the neon sign. I mean, sheesh, you are kind of like Jeff Bezos with cobwebs here. Okay. Again, that is purestorage.co, then there's peer space. Now I've used this one before, personally, and so has someone else here on staff on GRE she actually told me about it. What I did is I paid for a few hours as a renter, not the landlord on peerspace. In fact, I rented this space this past summer to give an in person real estate presentation where I covered real estate pays five ways and the inflation triple crown and all of that with peer space, you rent out your space for events, okay, so your home or your backyard or loft or some funky warehouse, you rent that out by the hour, and those events could be film shoots or workshops or parties or other events. That's what peer space is for. I mean, that could be a cool backdrop for an influencer or a film crew that has a pretty big budget. Renters come to you with alacrity. They will come to you because they can often save 50% or more versus using more traditional avenues. There, in fact, even public storage, like that's the company name Public Storage. They're the nation's largest self storage space operator. They even use neighbor.com to help lease out their leftover inventory. And so do some REITs that have extra space at their office or retail or apartment properties. They use neighbor.com as well. All right, so that's my roundup of more peer to peer leasing platforms, a few more of them than I told you about earlier this year, and the types of listings you can get creative. People are getting creative. They are monetizing everything from empty barns to vacant strip mall storefronts to church parking lots. I mean, consider how often church parking lots are empty. They're empty almost every day except Sunday. So get creative and think about space that's not being used. One thing to look out for, though, is that your HOA might try to crush your entrepreneurial spirit here. So keep that in mind. Just look around. Do you own any underutilized space or asset that you can rent out. Well, chances are there's already a peer to peer rental platform for it. And when you visit any of these platforms that I told you about, I mean, you're probably already going to see people offering space in your neighborhood. You'll be surprised.

Keith Weinhold 34:39

And this is not some unproven fad. Turo really took off about 10 years ago when they realized that most Americans' cars just sit idle, more than 95% of their time in their driveway or in their garage. Well, at that point, everyday people started to lease out their cars. Cars on Truro. So the bottom line here is that if you own most any real estate, then you've got options, and you can often make the rules peer to peer. Leasing platforms add new income streams to your life, and if you read my Don't quit your Daydream letter, you'll remember that I wrote about those resources and gave you their links and everything. See, that's the type of material that I put in the letter sometimes and again. You can get it at gre letter.com It shows you how to build wealth, much like I've been talking about on the show today. This is vital, because the conventional consumer finance world, you know, they just don't tell you about things like this. For example, did you ever wonder why economists aren't rich like maybe you would think that they would be Well, it's because schools and universities, they don't really teach you how to make money so someone can have an advanced degree, a Master's, or even a doctorate. That degree will be in finance or in economics, but they're still broke, or they're still trapped by their job, because the only way they know how to make money is by having a job. There's nothing wrong with having a job, but that's the only thing they know. They never learn how to earn and multiply money like with what I've been discussing today. Economists make between 70k and 180k per year in America today, you know, school taught both us and them the theory of money, how it's counted, how it's tracked, and how it flows through the system, but it really didn't teach them how to build a little diverter device on that flow to earn it or create it or leverage it to build freedom for themselves. And that is why this show is here. That's not a knock on economists. Economists are brilliant people, and some of the best known ones are guests on the show here with us. At times, we don't just want to live in a world of models and charts, though, when you build real world wealth with mortgages and markets and moves that don't always fit inside a formula, and certainly not a conventional one that you grew up with. So when you hear the experts talk about where the economy's heading, sure listen to them. I listen to them, but be sure to apply that to your own balance sheet, because you don't build wealth in theory, you build it in real life.

Keith Weinhold 37:44

Then how do you get a good deal? Build a relationship with a GRE investment coach like Naresh. Here you can do that on just 130 minute call with him, and then when the deal that you want becomes available, he'll let you know. By the time you find something on the internet, it's going to be too late, because that means a lot of people have already passed on that deal. If it's already out there publicly, like I said earlier, if you want to learn and do things the same way that everyone else does, then you are squarely in the wrong place. I really mean it. And why would that be? In fact, what does everyone else have? Not enough money at the end of the month, a budget where they constantly have to make sacrifices to meet it, because they think that is the way and they live below their means instead of grow their means. The underlying philosophy here at GRE is, don't live below your means. Grow your means. In fact, we have a T shirt with Grow Your means on it and our logo on it in our merch shop. That's why GRE has a tree in the logo. Grow your means. Instead of shrinking your lifestyle to fit your income, it's about expanding your income to fit your ambition, so don't cut your dreams to match your paycheck. Grow your paycheck to match your dreams. This really reflects the abundance mindset behind get rich education, that wealth isn't built by pinching pennies, but by creating more cash flow and assets and income streams in practical terms, like with what I talked about, about growing my own portfolio back at the beginning of today's show, this means buying cash flowing real estate that's growing your means leveraging good debt that's growing your means using inflation to advantage, that's growing your means investing in yourself or in new ventures. That's growing your means it's the mindset opposite of budget, harder. It is earn smarter at its core, grow your means. What that means is expand your capabilities in. Not just your comfort zone. Use creativity and leverage to multiply your results. View financial growth as a positive, proactive act, not a greedy one, because you're going to serve others with good housing and maintain it. This all encourages abundance over austerity, and it's the same idea behind the tagline financially free beats debt free.

Keith Weinhold 40:27

Thanksgiving is coming up this week, and I'll tell you something. Luckily, American ingenuity improved since the Pilgrims left England, traveled to a totally new continent, and called it New England. Fortunately, we have become more innovative since then, you are about to have more topics for conversation with family at the holidays. And note that Gen Z, ages 13 to 28 they are more likely to talk money today than they did previously. They are kind of the share everything on social generation. Tell relatives about your real estate investing, or at least some of the ideas you have. Tell them, perhaps something that they would be surprised to hear, that you learned on this show, like mortgage rates are, in fact, historically low today, actually, or something like that. And at Thanksgiving or Christmas, please tell a friend about the show. GRE is the work of my life, and that would mean the world to me. If you like listening every week, tell a friend about the show. Now use the Share button on your podcatcher if this show helps you see money or real estate differently. On Apple podcasts, touch the three dots and then the Share button. On Spotify, I think you can just hit the Share icon, the little rectangle with the arrow, and post it to your social feed or social story. That's how more people learn how to build real wealth like we do here at GRE and even better, Don't hoard the good stuff. If you learn something here, engage in the nicest kind of wealth redistribution. Tap the Share button right now and text this episode to one friend who'd appreciate it. Until next week, I'm your host, Keith Weinhold, have a happy Thanksgiving, and don't quit your Daydream.

Speaker 6 42:29

Nothing on this show should be considered specific, personal or professional advice. Please consult an appropriate tax, legal, real estate, financial or business professional for individualized advice. Opinions of guests are their own information is not guaranteed. All investment strategies have the potential for profit or loss. The host is operating on behalf of get rich Education LLC, exclusively.

Keith Weinhold 42:57

The preceding program was brought to you by your home for wealth building get richeducation.com

Direct download: GREepisode581_.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 4:00am EST

Mon, 17 November 2025

Keith discusses the evolving role of AI in real estate, highlighting its impact on property management and tenant interactions.

He contrasts traditional AI, which excels in IQ tasks but lacks emotional intelligence (EQ), with agentic AI, which can perform autonomous actions.

Dana Dunford, CEO of Hemlane, explains how their platform uses AI to streamline repair requests, leasing, and tenant communication. She emphasizes the importance of human oversight for tasks requiring EQ.

Looking ahead, Dana predicts increased standardization and remote-first investing, with technology playing a crucial role in enhancing real estate management efficiency.

Resources:

Explore Hemlane's property management platform and request a demo at www.hemlane.com

Mention the GRE podcast when signing up with Hemlane to receive a 20% discount on the first year.

Episode Page:

GetRichEducation.com/580

For access to properties or free help with a

GRE Investment Coach, start here:

GRE Free Investment Coaching: GREinvestmentcoach.com

Get mortgage loans for investment property:

RidgeLendingGroup.com or call 855-74-RIDGE

or e-mail: info@RidgeLendingGroup.com

Invest with Freedom Family Investments.

For predictable 10-12% quarterly returns, visit FreedomFamilyInvestments.com/GRE or text 1-937-795-8989 to speak with a freedom coach

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579: Should Billionaires Exist? Why Rates Keep Falling, Rare Opportunity in Texas

Complete episode transcript:

Keith Weinhold 0:01

Keith, welcome to GRE. I'm your host. Keith Weinhold, what will real estate look like in five years as AI keeps making inroads into our lives, learn how people have begun using it to manage their rental properties and doing it more cost effectively than humans can. It's a forward looking episode today on get rich education.

Speaker 1 0:26

Corey Coates 1:11

You're listening to the show that has created more financial freedom than nearly any show in the world. This is get rich education.

Keith Weinhold 1:27

Welcome to GRE from Long Island's Hamptons to Hampton Roads, Virginia and across 188 nations worldwide. I'm Keith Weinhold, and you are listening to get rich education way back in the year 2010 when someone said AI, that could only mean one thing they were talking about, Alan Iverson today, it means artificial intelligence, because chatgpt debuted three years ago this month, and gosh, that changed a lot. It changed how you search for answers to everyday questions. We'll get into applying AI to real estate and property management shortly. But more broadly, look, here's what's interesting, the very premise of a chat bot, like just hearing that word, it sounds really cold and impersonal, yet think about it, Google was way less personal. When you Google something a decade ago, say list the three best paints for drywall, you'd get a list of links, and then you had to dig in and synthesize things and often interpolate to find your answer, or maybe you wouldn't even get the right answer. Instead, today, a chatbot on chatgpt or Gemini gives you the answer in nice, friendly sentences. Maybe they'll list some acrylic and latex paint varieties, and then after the answer, they come back and ask you a good follow up question. If you'd like to dig in for a deeper answer, they'll bring up something that you hadn't considered before, perhaps like it'll turn around and ask you if you want them to refine their answer to just the best latexes and acrylics specifically for rentals. And then it will ask, Would you like me to do that for you? And when you see that, you quickly feel like it's more friendly than that old list of links from a Google search. Yeah, that's a friendly Chatbot. And you can start to see what I mean here. It's not so cold and impersonal. Understand that these platforms ask you a friendly follow up question, because they want to keep you on that platform, just like anywhere else, does you already hear less about hallucinations than you used to when it would just cough up these weird errors? I feel like it's giving better answers than it did just a year or two ago. In my experience, one place where you need to be careful is that these platforms are being so nice to you at times they seem a little too agreeable. One way to break that is to tell the AI challenge my thinking, just those three words can give you a more complete answer. Challenge my thinking, as we already know, one danger about AI is everyone is quickly becoming really reliant on it, and this could be especially harmful to kids that haven't developed independent skills yet. Now I heard from a young teacher who quit her job. A lot of kids don't know how to read today. Why would they when they can just hit a button and it reads it out loud for them, between third and fourth grade, that's when children should transition from learning to read over to reading to learn. Kids have aI right in their hand now, not every kid, but increasingly, they aren't writing a full essay by hand with their own thoughts that they conjured up. Of course, chatgpt does that for them. Now it's probably good to teach chatgpt to kids in older grades, that is, if they don't already know it better than the teachers do, but you've increasingly got teens and young adults that say don't know how to write a cover letter for a resume because it's done for them. Now, much of what I've been talking about so far is called generative AI, and all that means is that it creates new content in response to your prompt. Today, we'll also talk about agentic AI in real estate that is spelled like agent and with IC at the end. How agentic AI is different from Oh, the chat GPT or Gemini prompts that I was talking about is that it acts on its own to perform a series of actions to reach a goal. So agentic AI gets kind of autonomous.

Keith Weinhold 6:06

Before we bring in a great guest to talk more about AI and property management. If you're looking for another episode on how to use AI more broadly in your life and broadly in real estate, check out episode 543 of the get rich education podcast that was a great episode from back in March again, that was episode 543 titled How to use AI for real estate.

Keith Weinhold 6:34

Now let's pull back and humanize things a little before we talk about bots. I just caught myself doing something kind of funny. Now, the other day, I used the hand ergometer at the gym. If you don't know what that is, while you're oftentimes standing up, you basically use your hands to crank this device's pedals in much the same way that bicycle pedals move. It exercises your biceps, triceps, forearm muscles. I have never seen anyone use this device at the gym before, not one person, but I wanted to try them, right? It seems like I often want to try something different from everyone else, and it looks just slightly odd to use this hand ergometer machine. Well, that's not the funny part. The next day, I was throwing a football around with a friend, and I couldn't figure out why throwing a spiral was so difficult for me and why my throwing accuracy was dreadful. Later, when I got home, my forearm started feeling sore. Oh, and I realized it was from using that hand ergometer. You know, this is such a typical guy thing to do, I made sure to DM that friend immediately to tell him that my football throws were lousy only because I had used a hand ergometer at the gym the day before. And he basically replied, yeah, your throws were really bad. It's funny that I felt so compelled to DM him like, hey, I really don't want ed thinking that I can't throw a football like that is so important or something. I could have done anything else with that two minutes of my life, but I cannot go about the rest of my day if Ed thinks I've got a bad football spiral like so important, like, my flight to Paris leaves in 30 minutes, but I'll put that whole trip in doubt, because I can't forget to tell ed I can usually throw a spiral on a football better than what he's thinking. Because, admit it, everybody has an ego. Some are just bigger than others. Well, I am bursting at the seams with a lot of broad real estate investing techniques and developments for you, but I'm putting that on hold until after today's show.

Keith Weinhold 8:45

We're talking with the CEO and co founder of property management platform, hemlane. It's spelled H, E, M, L, A, N, E, hemlane. I'll ask her where real estate will be within five years. She's a really intelligent woman and fully aware that your tenants don't want a bot to handle all of their maintenance requests. It's a lot like how you don't want to say representative to an automated phone system. It's hard to be nice when you're trying to clearly articulate it for the third time representative. Let's meet this week's guest.

Keith Weinhold 9:33

This week's guest is the CEO and co founder of hemlane. They're a property management platform with over 28,000 rentals and a billion dollars in payments process, just like we have been since day one here at GRE She is a strong advocate of purchasing properties anywhere. So that's often going to be outside your home state, because if best investments typically aren't right in your backyard, and why would you limit yourself? She supports real estate investors in setting up the most intelligent process to manage rentals from a distance, in case you want to self manage and do that. She's been named one of the top 20 women leaders and influencers in real estate tech. She has a distinguished resume previously working at Apple, and she received her MBA from Harvard Business School. She's an interesting person too. In her free time, she's an avid equestrian, paraglider and skier, so like me, she sort of has this substantial life outside of real estate too. Come on. You need to do that for your sanity. Well, we've been talking for almost a year now, but this is your first time on the show. Hey, welcome. It is the GRE debut of Dana Dunford.

Dana Dunford 10:44

Thanks so much Keith for having me. I'm so excited to be on your show and have been following it for a long time. So huge fan.

Keith Weinhold 10:52

Appreciate that Dunford is spelled D, u n, f, O, R, D, for listeners in the audio only. And this is a rather forward looking episode streamlining how to use AI in real estate and as a property management solution, putting that in your hands so that you could do that yourself. And before we're done, Dana is going to tell us what real estate investing will look like in five years, and if it's a good time to invest now. But first, Dana, I know you're an expert in leading having autonomous agents handle the tenant relations, things like communication and repair orders to a unit and rent collection. But I think a lot of people aren't really sure what an autonomous agent is. They're like, Hmm, is that somewhere between an autonomous car and a Roomba or something? So what is an autonomous agent?

Dana Dunford 11:42

Yeah, so there's two different types of AI, and where we are right now is with traditional AI. There's also agentic AI, where essentially AI will just take over, be proactive, think about things in advance, know exactly how to solve and make decisions. But Keith, to your point, very many out there here, AI, it's very much of a buzzword, and so I love some sort of parallels, just like you had mentioned with like the robot vacuum. I think a really good parallel would be self driving cars, because that's something that's applicable. We can all relate to. You know, you have Tesla, I have one, and it can drive me to and from work at any time, fully on that autonomous but there will be occasionally times in San Francisco where it will require me to take over the wheel because it's too foggy. There's something that goes on that's too complex of a situation. That is where I would say AI is today that traditional, where it's like it can follow exactly a process, but if the process messes up, like there's something in its way, it can't make a decision. It beeps at you and says, take over, whereas if you look at something like Waymo on the self driving car side, that is fully autonomous. There's no one there. There's no one making decisions. But it's very limited on where it can go, what it can do. Now the technology is better, and that's for another conversation, but it's just slower to go to market. And so with traditional AI, and what we're seeing now, it's fast to market. Everyone can use it, but you can't rely on it 100% you can't say it takes the wheel 100% of the time. And I don't have to think about it. And so that is where we are. I think a lot of experts in the space will say 2030, is when we will see this agentic AI. Will see it completely take over, but we're just not there today.

Keith Weinhold 13:47

All right, we're talking about the transition from traditional AI, which is in place today, to agentic AI, perhaps the Advent or popularity of that in five years, when I think about autonomous agent a lot of times, I like to look at etymology. Just what does that specifically mean? So we're talking about for another AI or a bot, if you will, to have autonomy over decision making. And when we think about autonomous agency with property management, how can we think of that application?

Dana Dunford 14:20

Yeah, I think that you need to break it down into what AI does very well right now, and what you could have aI fully take over, and where you might have some problems. And let me back up to if everyone remembers Watson, who beat Jeopardy, this was a while ago. The reason was, was actually because AI is very good at IQ. It can look up a ton of facts, or it can solve a really complex math problem. So anything on like the IQ side, AI is great to solve, but it's EQ that AI. Lacks, yeah, and EQ is me picking up the phone and saying, you know, Keith, I'm so sorry I messed up on, you know, whatever it was for you. If you're my boss, I'm so sorry here. So I'm going to make it right. Blah, blah, blah, blah, blah. And so that's where AI is not as good. And so when I think about any kind of system with real estate, you know, putting together your pro forma and looking at the cash flow and all of that, like AI can actually do it well, if you set up these are all the prompts that I would need, or take everything from insurance to interest rates and come up with the pro forma. But where AI will fail is a lot of times on the tenant communication side. And the reason for that is, let's just say, Keith, you have a apartment complex and there is the heat out. Well, if someone has a screaming baby in the background when you pick up the phone, you are going to answer that question, or you're going to talk to that tenant a lot differently if you're human versus if you're AI, you're going to say, oh my gosh, you have a four month old baby. You know, I also have kids. I know exactly what you're going through. And just so you know that HVAC technician is coming out right away, I will be here for you. I'm going to call you in five minutes. And so I always say, especially in real estate, because real estate is a people business, you really need to what, what you're trying to automate, or what you're trying to use, AI into four quadrants, and one axis, the horizontal axis, is IQ. Anything along that access it does well, but the vertical axis is EQ. And so the higher up you go on EQ, where you need relationships, the less likely it is, or my recommendation, would be, put a human in there. And so when we think about AI, it's like, if you're calling someone to confirm an appointment and remind them that, like an electrician is going to be there in an hour, you don't really need a human to do that. That's something that AI can do, and someone's going to have a delightful experience, right? But if it's something that requires that, EQ, that's where you're still going to have to have humans there.

Keith Weinhold 17:11

One thing that I often think about is, some years ago, popular email providers like Gmail, when someone would send you an email message asking you a question, Gmail basically started reading that email for you and giving you three little bubbles to click on the bottom, basically where you can click a yes answer, no answer or a follow up for more information, does that help give some relativity to what We're talking about here in property management and those tenant relations.

Dana Dunford 17:43

Yeah. I mean, I think that the Gmail with like, yes, no or No, thank you, or you get it also on LinkedIn that almost has zero EQ, because it's really just answering a question. It's not saying, Keith, I hope you had a wonderful weekend. You know, on your run, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah. It's not doing any of that. And so I think that is very much of a case of like, it's responding exactly to the email. I do think AI is getting better, where it's having that human touch involved in it when it responds to things. So now in Gmail, where you can have it draft you a response, but at the same time, it's not quite there unless it has enough context. And what I mean by context, and Gmail is such a good example, let's just say Keith today, if you look at Gmail and it's responding to an email, it is literally only responding based on the context it has in that email, right? But let's just say Keith, that you could increase context. So I gave you two axes, like EQ and IQ, high and low on both. Imagine if I could add a third axis on there, so it's almost like 3d and it's context. Now imagine that email you just mentioned came in, and it also could look at my messages, Keith with you on, let's just say Facebook, it also could look at the last shows that you had out there. It also just looked online at things, and maybe it could look at other, you know, information that you might have posted on LinkedIn. And maybe you posted on LinkedIn about your run this weekend. Now I can respond with a lot more context. Hey, Keith, saw on LinkedIn. You had this that is actually adding EQ to it, where it's making it much more personalized. And I think that is where the future of technology is going, and that's why data is such a big play here, because the more context you have, the better you are. And you know, we see that personally as a tech company, we wanted to control more of the data. We don't want to have a ton of APIs with other companies running maybe self guided tours for us, or running the maintenance coordination, because we need that all in our system. Because if we don't have access to the lease agreement to know specifically, do they have an occupant under one years old in the place it makes it. Lot more difficult for us to respond in a very eloquent way and help solve that EQ problem that a lot of AI has today.

Keith Weinhold 20:09

Talk to us more about how today autonomous agents are helping with property management, whether that's handling tenant requests for repair issues or helping virtual showing. So tell us more about how it's really helping investors today, and then what to watch out for.

Dana Dunford 20:27

Yeah, definitely. So the autonomous agents, or at least the AI agents, that we have always draft things up. Well we use them for like, some of the best places to use them are things like troubleshooting repair requests. Okay, 7% of repair requests that come into our system. And I'm sure with any of your guys' portfolios, you'll see the same thing, 7% we can get the tenant to solve without liability. However, we have to train the AI, so we have to say, Listen, we can have zero liability with this. So if the ceiling is over 10 feet tall, do not put a tenant on a ladder and tell them to change a light bulb. You need to know exactly like you know when a tenant says, My light bulbs out and it checks out. They moved in a year ago. That's their responsibility. Like you are not going to put them on a ladder unless you have more of that context. And so on the troubleshooting side, that is a great way where AI can respond and fully come up with here's a summary of everything we've done. And here, this request was either closed or actually, we need to pass this over to human that is a great way to use AI. You just need to make sure the data you're using is right and it's trained in the right way. Because if you don't have all of those additional specific, intricate type of examples that I mentioned for residential property management, you can get in a lot of trouble this same for an autonomous agent would be on the leasing side. It's very easy to do it early on when you get the tenant inquiries coming in, because now what you're trying to do is just qualify them. Is this person qualified for a tour, and if they are, what time do they want to see the property? Right? And how do I get them in as quickly as possible? With that, though, you have to train it. So, for example, I live in California. I live in San Francisco. You can't just say the credit score requirement is 650 because if the person is on Section eight, which you are required to accept in California, you have to give an alternative to credit in order to let them qualify. And so that's where these models to get, these autonomous AI agents. It becomes really important to be a subject matter expert in the space and be able to run this and have it train and know exactly what it should be saying in those cases. Now, Keith, I always say kind of as a rule of thumb, the farther down you get on something, the more challenging it is for it to be fully autonomous. And that's where you need a human involved. So for example, for us, once you're talking to service professional and communicating between them and a tenant, you very much need a human to be there to help with that. And same thing on the leasing side, there is no way, actually, if you know anyone, Keith, I would love to talk to them, but there is no way a tenant is going to go ahead and talk to an AI agent all the way to signing a lease and handing over the keys, especially if you're doing something like self guided tours, they're going to want someone on the phone talking to them. Hey, I'm here for you again. That EQ those quadrants I mentioned, really bringing that into play. So I found a lot of things with property management. At the beginning, you can use AI, but there's a certain point where you get to something where you say, I actually need a human to be calling or messaging, because you need that additional touch.

Keith Weinhold 23:47

That makes sense. This is not buying a weed eater. This is actually a rather intimate transaction. We're talking about where you and your family are going to live and thrive and eat and sleep every day we're talking with hemlane, CEO and co founder, Dana Dunford, about applying AI in real estate and property management more when we come back with Dana, I'm your host. Keith Weinhold

Keith Weinhold 24:12

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Keith Weinhold 25:23

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Dolf Deroos 25:56

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Keith Weinhold 26:13

Welcome back to get rich education. We're talking with Dana Dunford in a rather forward looking episode, applying AI to real estate investing and property management and Dana, I think I would wonder about if AI has much reasoning ability, as far as, why don't we say prioritization with a tenant repair request? If a tenant has a repair request because their kitchen cabinet doors are squeaky, that's probably something that needs to be handled differently and is going to be lower on the priority chain than if a sink just flooded all over the bathroom floor, and it's going to ruin the subfloor in a few hours if it's not addressed. So where are we at with AI's reasoning ability there?

Dana Dunford 26:57

It's actually pretty good at prioritization, so it can tell our team where things are from a priority list, however, where we found that we've had to train it more, and this is us putting logic into it from a large language model, is it hasn't picked up certain things. And let me give you an example. Keith, my toilets not working, right? Okay, well, the biggest question to ask is, how many toilets do you have in the house? How many are in the property? Because if there is one, that is definitely an emergency, if there are two, not so much of an emergency. And so that's where there's additional contacts that comes in, go search under the marketing description, how many toilets are in this house, right? And then confirm with the tenant the other one is still functioning. And so there's certain things like that that we've found we've had to personally train to get it to respond in the right way. But overall, like generally, it's pretty good at helping to de escalate things, turning off valves saying, hey, mop up. You would be surprised how many tenants don't just like mop up the water on the floor. They're like, Oh, I wanted to keep it so you could see what it looked like. It's like, no, no, no, you need to mop it up. And by the way, we need fans in there. And there's a point where you just get a remediation specialist there. It's one of the most expensive trades, because usually insurance is called if you're calling a remediation group, but really understanding the extent of it and stuff like that, AI is actually pretty good at that. And the reason why is that is an IQ thing, where it's something easily searchable on the internet that is applicable to all homes, right? And so it's much easier for them to be able to do the prioritization of repairs.

Keith Weinhold 28:39

Okay? So an investor can basically buy or leverage the hemlane software and tell me, is there an AI integration with it? And like, how does that interface actually look and how much does the investor need to use it? What's already built in? Tell us more there.

Dana Dunford 28:58

Yeah. So we have a repair coordination. So when we build features, we build features to solve problems, not to like call it a feature, right? And so there's one feature we have called repair coordination, and that is to end to end, coordinate your repair all the way from troubleshooting to confirming work is completed and paying the service professional on your behalf. How we get that done. We don't think the owner really cares, as long as it's a five star experience for them and a five star experience for the tenant. And so what we've done in our approach has been, you always have humans that you start with, and these are people who are trained specifically in all of these things we've been talking about. Then what you do is you add AI in, and it's not quite yet a co pilot, a co pilot, is actually helping, like, make those decisions, but it's making the humans faster. And then the humans can come back to us, our repair coordinators, and say, Hey, listen, this is where the AI fails a bit. This is where I had to replace something in the AI before I clicked send. And. That is a really good way to do it, because I've seen out there, and I'm even though I'm in Silicon Valley, I'm in San Francisco, like aI Mecca, I'm probably more conservative on using it in part because of tenant landlord law and just what can go wrong. And so for me personally, it's like, I see sometimes out there where people's like, use our AI repair coordinator and it's fully AI. And it's like, yeah, but we've seen cases where the AI fails, just like I mentioned, where my car asks me to take over the wheel and and that's where I think that we're just not quite there yet, and we need to give it more time, you need to make sure you're using the right technology for it, but that's where I feel like it's almost more like an assistant to me versus an actual replacement or a co pilot yet, but it will soon get there.

Keith Weinhold 30:55

Well, a lot of times the producer or I guess, landlord, in this case, they want to use AI, but consumers don't really want to consume AI content. You can imagine, if a tenant had a problem, they don't want to feel like an AI was used all the way through the process and was never involved. So tell us more about that. I mean, how do the tenants take it?

Dana Dunford 31:17

Keith, I love that question so much. Because one I think sometimes technology companies are not transparent of what is AI and what is not AI. Yeah, I think the first thing you need to do is be transparent that it's aI talking to you. If you don't do that, you've suddenly lost trust, right? Sometimes they'll brand it as a person, but it's really not. So that's the first thing I would say. The second thing I would say is, if the AI solves what they need, we have found in a very delightful way. We have found that they don't care if it's AI, if they're chatting and it's so fast and the answer is their question, then they don't care that it's aI doing it, or human they just care about, what is my problem, and how do I get that solved? Right as quickly as possible. I think if AI was slow, they would care, like, they're like, Oh, it's a slow support agent, because they're too cheap to, like, invest in support. But no, they actually get their questions resolved. We have occasionally had tenants who have said, Hey, this didn't help me. You know, connect me with an agent, and then we connect them right away with an agent. But what's interesting in those cases is the AI actually had the right answer, so it gave them exactly the answer. But the person was like, I just don't want to talk to AI. Then the question is, how do you actually change it to make them want to talk to AI? And a lot of it has to do with that. EQ, how do you add it to make it such a delightful experience for them, where you're adding so much more in? And how you say, like, Does that help answer your question? I'm happy to like say it in a different way, if that is helpful. So I think a lot of times when someone says, oh, the AI answers that, but people just want to talk to human. It's really more that the AI didn't answer it how they wanted it to be answered, or it asked too many obnoxious questions, where the person's like, just let me talk to human. You're asking me the wrong questions. This is not applicable, and that's really where you need to have a better level of where your technology should be when you're responding to someone

Keith Weinhold 33:20

just quickly. Dana, how is it integrated with dispatch, with that sink flooded all over the floor? Example, would the AI know to contact a plumber versus just a handyman that works at a lower rate? So how does it work with dispatching?

Dana Dunford 33:35

They would before anything is dispatched, because it's another human involved. We do have, at this moment, we still have humans involved checking it, but it would know because of a couple of things we have. One is preferred service professionals. So who do you want to go out? First, second, third, fourth. Then of those service professionals, what do they do? Is it just septic, you know? Do they do full plumbing, whatever it may be, and then also, what that person's hours are like, if it's a weekend and it's an emergency and someone doesn't work weekends, you're not going to call that service professional. You're going to call the next one in line who is available. So all of that is built into it, but we still always have humans look it over to say, is that the right category? Are they dispatching the right service professional? All of that, eventually that can just take over with AI doing it. But at this moment, we still put humans involved, because most services have a service call, and we need a person to say, Yes, I made that decision to send that person out, just because, you know, could be $89 and for everything service calls add up, so we want humans to make that better for you?

Keith Weinhold 34:40

Yeah. All right, so we still have a good level of human involvement. Well, Dana, before I ask how our listeners can learn more about hemlane, what does investing in real estate look like in five years? Since you are rather forward looking there

Dana Dunford 34:56

yeah, So I think there's a couple of things right now. Keith, we had spoke. And right before this show started about how challenging it is. It's a slow real estate market. Yeah, it is. I still think people will regret if they don't purchase now versus in five years. You know, I still think you should be looking for those great deals where someone has to sell and the price doesn't matter as much and you don't have as much competition. So when you look five years out, it has to become easier to invest and manage Real Estate. Today, to me, it's still a broken process. It's still so challenging to get anything done, it's still so manual to get everything done, and it's also you're dealing with people, and people get exhausted by that, like the drama and stuff like that. So I think in five years, you'll have less of that, there will be much more standardization. And an example I would give is, like, with the taxi industry and Uber Right? Like, a very consistent quality, you know what you're going to get, you're going to get from point A to point B. We need the same thing for real estate, with what you're investing in? How that happens? There's a lot of great technology companies out there doing things exciting. Things are like fractional ownership and tokenization. I think that is something that online, being a little bit more passive is going to be a lot easier. I think remote first investing is going to be the way to go, people are going to feel so much more comfortable investing not in their backyard, which I know Keith, you and I are huge proponents of. And then I also just think that in the case of how many people are going to be focused on who's their tech partner versus just who's their local partner? I think that is going to be another thing, because of all of this we mentioned with AI and those who are using more technology, even just to source the deals. I'm not talking about management. I'm talking about straight from the start, or how you finance it. Anyone who is using more technology and better technology is definitely going to win in this space.

Keith Weinhold 37:02

Yeah, investing out of state continues to grow in popularity, and platforms like hemlane, with the right AI integrations can help reduce that friction in still a pretty high friction industry over the next five years. Well, Dana, I think you really going to get the wheels turning for a lot of listeners here, if they want to learn more about hemlane, what's the best way for them to do that?

Dana Dunford 37:26

Yeah, you can go to www.hemlane.com We've everything from free packages to manage your properties to much more full service, comprehensive with that repair coordination we spoke about just please do mention this interview slash podcast, specifically Keith and GRE and you will get 20% off your first year there. So please do make sure to mention it.

Keith Weinhold 37:50

Oh, thank you for doing that for our listeners. Dana Dunford, it's been valuable as I knew it would be. Thanks so much for coming onto the show.

Dana Dunford 37:57

Great. Thanks so much for having me.

Keith Weinhold 38:02

You Brenda, how much does it cost for an investor to use hemlane? Well, there's a free software package where you don't have to leave a credit card or anything like Dana mentioned. Their website will show you that monthly. There are a few packages and fee schedules, but they all have 14 day free trials too. Now, if you use a professional manager, it's less likely that hemlane can help you. If you self manage, you can book a free demo right there from the top of their homepage. It's really easy to find. They can help you with tenant screening, background and credit checks, listing, syndication, online rent collection, tracking rent payments, late fees, and they've got dashboards for lease and tenant status, also everything to do with streamlining maintenance requests, work orders and some of the logistics of your repair coordination, H, E, M, L, A, N, E, hemlane.com, you might like the demo. You can mention GRE for 20% off your first year. That is kind of Dana to do that for us until next week, when I'll be back to help you build your wealth. I'm your host. Keith Weinhold, don't quit your Daydream.

Speaker 2 39:20

Speaker 3 39:40

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Direct download: GREepisode580_.mp3
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578: Why Real Estate Quietly Makes You Rich in Your Sleep

Complete episode transcript:

Keith Weinhold 0:00

Keith, welcome to GRE. I'm your host. Keith Weinhold, should billionaires even exist? Why do so many people think that interest rates of all types are headed even lower than as a real estate investor, how to identify and capitalize on an opportunity in this era? It's something that I've never seen before. Today on get rich education

Speaker 1 0:27

since 2014 the powerful get rich education podcast has created more passive income for people than nearly any other show in the world. This show teaches you how to earn strong returns from passive real estate investing in the best markets without losing your time being a flipper or landlord. Show Host Keith Weinhold writes for both Forbes and Rich Dad advisors and delivers a new show every week since 2014 there's been millions of listener downloads of 188 world nations. He has a list show guests include top selling personal finance author Robert Kiyosaki. Get rich education can be heard on every podcast platform, plus it has its own dedicated Apple and Android listener phone apps build wealth on the go with the get rich education podcast. Sign up now for the get rich education podcast, or visit get rich education.com

Corey Coates 1:13

You're listening to the show that has created more financial freedom than nearly any show in the world. This is get rich education.

Keith Weinhold 1:29

Welcome to GRE from flatiron, Manhattan to Flatbush, Brooklyn, across New York City and 188 world nations. This is Get Rich Education. I'm your host. Keith Weinhold, it's the longest federal government shutdown in US history. This whole thing has now lasted longer than most gym memberships. I guess the GDP stands for government doesn't produce, hmm. Before we get into our core investing and real estate content today, Billie Eilish, the singer, recently made some public remarks on whether or not billionaires should even exist. Yeah. Now if you're not familiar with her, Billie Eilish is known for her kind of unique style, sort of these baggy clothes, neon hair, avant garde fashion, and she has a reputation for being outspoken about a lot of things like mental health and body image and environmental issues. Now, in general, I respect people for speaking their mind, whether I agree or not, because a lot of people are just afraid to do that. Let's listen in to this short clip on what she said. You might have heard this because it was pretty widely broadcasted. Eilish spoke after receiving recognition at the Wall Street Journal innovator awards. This is courtesy of the AP. And then I'll come back to comment.

Speaker 2 2:58

We're in a time right now where the world is really, bad and really dark, and people need empathy and help more than kind of ever, especially in our country. And I'd say if you have money, it would be great to use it for good things and maybe give it to some people that need it and love you all, but there's a few people in here that have a lot more money than me, and if you're a billionaire, why are you a billionaire? No hate, but yeah, give your money away. Shorties. Love you guys. Thank you so much.

Speaker 3 3:40

First of all, without explicitly saying it, she's basically referencing how inflation widened the canyon between the haves and the have nots and GRE listeners that have acted have been on the right side of that canyon. I actually want to give Billie Eilish some credit here. Giving is virtuous. That is a good thing. In fact, next month, I plan to discuss the pros and cons of giving here on the show as we approach Christmas. Billie Eilish, she's certainly not a hypocrite either, because she's given away more than $10 million of her estimated $50 million dollar net worth. She's into feeding people and climate initiatives that right there is giving away more than 20% of your net worth, and that is really kind. Now, you heard her say there's a few people in here that have a lot more money than me, and she's right. Mark Zuckerberg was in that room. His net worth of over 200 billion means that his net worth is more than 4000 times greater than Billy eilish's. It sounds loosely like she's. shaming him for not giving away more of his wealth. And I don't know just offhand how much Zuck gives away, but this is where my credit to Billy Eilish stops. I think that it's okay for a person to be a billionaire. I wouldn't question that. I mean, a lot of times it meant that that person was willing to take risks that others would not dare try. A billionaire probably means you're a person of great value, and that you've hired hundreds or 1000s of other people, creating jobs for them. A billionaire has almost certainly created a product that society values. Jeff Bezos pioneered one day delivery. Zuckerberg connects people through his meta platforms. And now I'm not going to say that either one of those billionaires are perfect people. They are flawed, just like you and I. Billionaires probably pay more tax than the average person as well. That supports the infrastructure that you and I and everybody use, like building bridges or creating a fiber optic network. I would expect that a billionaire would be a giver as well. And see, if you're a billionaire, you have more ability to give than the average person does, you can make a greater impact. And see, this is where things really break down and not make sense. So if Billie Eilish is net worth is 50 million, Oh, apparently that's just okay. That's fine with her. But once it gets to 20 times greater than that, which is 1 billion, then it's not okay. So that means the line is drawn somewhere in there. That makes zero sense to me. The ceiling on what you're supposed to have in net worth is between 50 million and 1 billion. Like, I really do not get the logic on that one. And you know, a guest that we've had on the show here, Grant Cardone, whether you like him or not, he has had some on point remarks about these Billy Eilish comments himself to the question that she posited, which is, if you're a billionaire, why are you a billionaire? Cardone's answer is, if you're a pop star, why are you a pop star? Billy said, give your money away. Cardone's response to her is, give your music away. That's some food for thought there. That's my take on the Billy Eilish remarks on whether or not billionaires should exist. And if you want to hear Grant Cardone and I's conversation here on GRE, that was episode 264 the title of it is Keith Weinhold and Grant Cardone 10x your wealth number 264, a lot of listeners like that episode saying something like it was a dream to hear grant and I together for the first time. Like that, their favorite sales trainer on their favorite real estate show. You can listen by either scrolling way back to get rich education episode 264 in your podcatcher, or you can listen directly by going to get rich education.com/ 264,

Keith Weinhold 8:11

now the Fed has said that they are going to slow or end Qt, next month. All right, when Jerome Powell says something like this, what does that really mean to you as an investor? What can you expect ending QT? Well, you probably already know that QE quantitative easing that has the effect of creating dollars. Qt is the opposite. It has the effect of destroying dollars. So if they're ending Qt, this helps keep more dollars around in the future. So ending Qt then, like we expect soon, that really parallels a lower interest rate environment, because see lower rates already make dollars flow more freely. You probably remember the analogy that I introduced to you on the show earlier this year about how lower rates are like lowering the height of a dam wall. It makes it easier for water to flow, so then lowering rates makes it easier for money to flow, and that's because low savings account rates make people get money out of those vehicles. Okay, that's that low dam wall and low borrowing rates make that money flow as well. People will unlock dollars if rates are low, late last year, the Fed dropped rates a full 1% then they didn't make any moves for a while, until late this year, they've now dropped rates another half a percent. That's the environment that we're in. So then more QE and less QT. That further eases the flow of dollars, and it correlates with even lower rates that are coming in the future. Now it doesn't mean that they will. I'm not saying that they certainly will. There is just that tendency, that correlation. So we had pandemic era QE there about five years ago, that ended as we moved to Qt in 2022 and now what we're doing is unwinding Qt, moving back toward more flow, and it surely gets more technical than that. Ending Qt allows the Fed to expand its balance sheet again. Treasuries and mortgage backed securities, once matured, can now be replaced, and that injects liquidity into the system once again, and that is where we're going. Bank reserves are reaching ample levels again, and there is no need to put liquidity stress on money markets. A lot of these moves are here. What they're here for is to help ease the concerning labor market. It's been almost exactly three years now since chatgpt launched, and a while back, I mentioned how companies were newly interested in hiring the shiny new job that didn't exist before the AI prompt engineer that was one of the hottest jobs. Well, yeah, that was true back in 2023 but not so much. Now. A lot of companies have figured out that the employees that wanted to keep their job, well, they figured out real quick how to be the Ask AI, good questions guy, and we are seeing more layoffs later today, my guest and I will talk about that, and also he's going to make somewhat of a future mortgage rate forecast, or at least talk about the direction that they're going in. I think you're really going to like that. I don't predict rates myself, but sometimes a guest will. That's what's happening today. My point here is that with Qt ending, which again lowers the damn wall height and eases the flow of money, that parallels the fact that we have lower interest rates now than what we had one year ago, and we have lower interest rates now than what we had two years ago. As well, be mindful that you cannot get it all as a real estate investor. You cannot get soaring employment and low interest rates together. You cannot get those two things together, at least not for long. High employment means high rates. Low employment means low rates. Today's guest, and I will get into that as well.

Keith Weinhold 12:43

Well as we've had lower rates, hence a lower wall height, don't buy property and expect that you'll be able to refi into a lower rate within a year. If it happens, great. Don't buy expecting rents to go up or rates to go down, although many think that will happen. Just enjoy it. If it does, rent vesting has been on the rise lately. Yes, rent vesting. What that means is when you pay rent in the property where you live, and then the only properties that you own are rental properties. Rent vesting makes sense if you live in California, New York City and Boston, since rent to price ratios are so low there, and then you invest your dollars inland, that's how you can live in a high cost place and yet still benefit from cheap rental property and have income streams from them. You might remember that some months ago, I interviewed two listener guests on the show, everyday listeners, just like you, and California based investor and GRE listener, Joshua Fang, told us about his rent vesting. He pays rent in his primary residence, since the rent to price ratio might be three tenths of 1% there and then he owns property in GRE marketplace markets, I think it was Memphis and elsewhere where you're benefiting from, say, eight tenths of 1% that is called rent, vesting, investing in properties that make sense that you buy through GRE marketplace. And remember when Josh told us that passive income gives him time to enjoy life and even stop and watch two lizards for 15 minutes? Oh, what passive income can do. It's the quirky things that you remember. See. The point is that smart people in high cost states are rent vesting, if that's what you've got to do in order to own real assets. Then do it get on the right side, as this difference between the haves and the have nots just keeps expanding. I just did something that you might find interesting over the weekend for the first time in years. I visited that first fourplex building that I ever owned, which is also the first piece of real estate that I ever owned, that blue colored fourplex, and it is still blue. The address of that property is 925 east, 45th court, and it's in Midtown Anchorage. It has never been a pretty neighborhood, and I confirmed that it still is not. It looks a touch worse than when I owned it. I straightened up the curb appeal more than today's owner does. I bought the four Plex over 20 years ago for $295,000 and at that time, on the day that I bought. The total rents were $2,900 because it was 725 per door. I just looked on Zillow. And do you want to guess at its zestimated value today? Yes, it cost 295k back in 2002 and today, the Zestimate is 625k I don't know what today's rents are. My guess is that they're just short of $6,000 for all four units combined, two bed, one bath, 960 square foot units, really plain vanilla, boring looking housing, but it's certainly not like a crime ridden slum. It's just that depressing looking block that's just chock full of disorder and these other four Plex buildings and dumpsters all over the place. But yeah, that's how it all began for me. I visited that building again, and I haven't owned it in a while. I 1031 exchange out of it and into an eight Plex in 2013 if it weren't for that building, you would not be listening to me right now, and you would not have heard of me, because this show wouldn't exist big thanks to the three and a half percent down FHA loan for someone that came from humble means, like me.

Keith Weinhold 17:03

Last month, I did a running race that goes up a ski jump that was pretty cool. It gets so steep that you have to grab onto a cargo net to pull yourself up. It's almost like a rope ladder. I did not win. I got fifth out of 21 competitors in that race. Hey, I like to get out and physically challenge myself. After talking real estate all day, my body weight is up a little. It's currently sitting at 178 pounds. That's 81 kilograms for our European listeners, and it hit its recent bottom of 172 back on the Fourth of July. That's by design. I need to be really leaned out for a big Independence Day race every summer. You know, I'm one of those guys where I still cannot compete with bodybuilders because I'm too lean, and yet I don't win running races because I'm too bulky, so I'm more of an all around guy. I do about seven different sports, and that's exactly how I win nothing and always get like, fifth place or worse. This major mammal has got to keep himself moving, In any case.

Keith Weinhold 18:17

next week here on the show, we'll talk to a Harvard grad. She's super interesting. She used to work at Apple, and then she founded an AI centric property management company so that you can use her platform to self manage and leverage AI. But are we at the point where your tenant would really talk to a chatbot? Would that fly? And if society is there, well then do property management fees and everything start trending towards zero. I'm going to ask her about that. That's next week. As for today, you know, the world series ended about a week ago, and what I did is that I watched 10 commercials during the World Series, and then I jotted down the name of each sponsor, and here's who the World Series advertisers were just in this one segment where I paid attention to them. They're all big brands that you've heard of atnt Liberty, mutual nature made brand items like vitamins and supplements, Starbucks, Coors, light, Qdoba, Capital One, Home Depot, crest, white strips and Jim Beam, all right, those were the 10. What do those 10 have in common? More or less, any ideas there those 10 products and companies are all for consumer products. That's the common link. And that might seem so obvious that you wouldn't even think of it. Well, this is because most ads are for consumer products. Those ads fuel consumerism. And there's nothing wrong with that at all. That. Represents an economy. In fact, I use some of those very companies in my personal life.

Keith Weinhold 20:04

But here's the difference here at GRE our sponsors help you produce, not consume. Think about that as you listen to me in this spot for freedom, family investments and then Ridge lending group, then I'm coming back for more with a terrific guest.

Keith Weinhold 20:23

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Keith Weinhold 21:34

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John Lee Dumas 22:08

this is Entrepreneur on fires, John Lee, Dumas, don't follow Money. Make money. Follow you with get rich. Education.

Keith Weinhold 22:22

So we have a familiar voice back on the show. It's an in house discussion here with our own GRE investment coach. And like I've told you before, he's got both the formal education with his MBA and the self education, because he's an active real estate investor for four years now, he has helped you completely free, usually over the phone, sometimes on Zoom. He learns your own personal goals and then helps you find the market that's right for you in fitting those goals. And I've had listeners like you tell me that, you know, I can't believe that getting his actionable insight is free, and now he can help you best, though, if you're ready to own more income property, he even helps connect you with the exact property address, like say, 321, raspberry Street in Huntsville, Alabama. So it's great to welcome back to the show and provide the listener with a respite from my mouth breathing rhetoric and discourse, it is GRE investment coach. Naresh Vissa,

Naresh Vissa 23:24

thanks a lot, Keith. I can't believe it's been four years. It's been four amazing years, and congratulations to you and to GRE for being around so long and together, we have grown our listenership, and we appreciate all of you listeners, listening out there, for sure,

Keith Weinhold 23:42

real estate activity has slowed down overall, but things are still really vibrant. Here at GRE we see more activity than we saw last year, and when we talk about increasing activity, Naresh, the Fed, looks to do that when they reduce interest rates, that incentivizes businesses to borrow, that incentivizes consumers to spend, because, for example, they're not getting as high of a yield and their savings account. So now we're here in this fed cutting cycle. Tell us what that means from your perspective.

Naresh Vissa 24:15

We talked about this a few months ago when I was on the podcast at the Federal Reserve. I predicted that the Federal Reserve would begin a rate cutting cycle, and that this cycle would be extensive. It would not be an overnight, 100 basis point cut, or anything like that we saw in March. So that rate cutting cycle has begun, and they continue to cut. And we did an entire episode on President Trump and the name calling with Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, whose term ends in the middle of next year. It's May of next year, when he's leaving. And with all that pressure, I predicted that the Fed would begin its rate cutting cycle. We are in the. Cutting cycle right now. They did a few cuts last year and stopped, which I thought were mistakes. But with that being said, we are in the thick of this cutting cycle. We are going to see more cuts moving forward. And what that means you're already seeing it. As a real estate investor, you are seeing, I don't want to say low interest rates, but lower interest rates compared to where we were a year ago, compared to where we were certainly 234, years Well, maybe not four years ago, but three years ago, we are seeing far lower interest rates, and we will continue to see interest rates, in the sense of mortgage rates, plummet as a result of this. So enjoy the low rates while they last, because they're not going to last forever. Nothing lasts forever, but the Federal Reserve, you throw in the government shutdown, I think it makes sense that the Federal Reserve continues to cut, because there's no telling where inflation is going to go. The experts thought that inflation would go up, up, up, up and be a significant problem. They've been saying that since the election winner last year or the election night last year, we haven't necessarily seen that. We have seen inflation somewhat go up, but we haven't seen that runaway inflation that many of the experts predicted as a result of the tariffs, as a result of the rate cutting, I think it definitely helps that number one, Doge, cut several government programs and cut a lot of government spending, not as much as they thought they would, but they cut enough to where they're limiting the amount of federal government spending. We've also seen mass layoffs, mass layoffs in the public sector, which has seeped into the private sector as well, because many of these private companies, like an Accenture, for example, many of these tech companies that were getting subsidies from the government, that funding has stopped, and that has led to layoffs. Now, what layoffs do is layoffs create, I don't want to say deflation, but layoffs are disinflationary, right? And we've seen significant layoffs, like I said, since February of earlier this year, when Doge was in the thick this government shutdown has led to mass layoffs as well. So we've seen 10s of 1000s of people well, we've seen hundreds of 1000s of people furloughed, if not at least a million people furloughed now, they will end up getting their pay, but we've seen 10s of 1000s of people laid off as a result of this government shutdown. And what that means is, again, this is very disinflationary. That's less money that the government is spending moving forward, not just right now, but moving forward. So there's a savings there that's also more people who are probably going to hold on to their cash as tightly as possible as they find new work. So this is, once again, disinflationary. And what does all this mean? All of this, to me, seems disinflationary. It goes against the narrative that when you cut interest rates, inflation goes up. It goes against a narrative that when you implement tariffs, inflation goes up, and that's why we haven't seen the runaway inflation that many so called experts were predicting. I think moving forward, the Fed continues to cut because of the weakness, at least when it comes to the job situation, because of the weakness with jobs, and because of unemployment, it's gone up somewhat. I think the Fed ends up continuing their rate cutting cycle through the end of Powell's term, and it could be just a series of 25 basis points every time they meet. Maybe if things get if there's something that they don't like, they up it to 50 basis points at one of the meetings. But the bottom line is, I think they're just going to keep cutting until Powell is gone, and then Trump will put in his guy into the Fed chair. And by that point, we may have cut enough to where there's not much left to cut yet, and that's when we're going to see there's a chance that could happen, or there's a chance the next guy will pick up where Powell left off and and do series of cuts as well. But what that means is that mortgage rates, we can expect, that's one of the most common questions I get from GRE followers, yeah, it's where do you see mortgage rates going? Because these people, they're not a lot of our followers, they're not following the intricacies of the market. Most of our followers have full time jobs as doctors or dentists or engineers or IT workers, and they're not following the ins and outs. And so the most common question that I get is, where are interest rates going? And I've been pretty spot on for the past few years, minus a few mistakes that I thought the Fed made. But I'm very confident when I say, just like I said when I came on earlier this year, that interest rates are on their way down there, and they are not on their way up.

Keith Weinhold 29:51

Just wait until this administration gets their guy in as the Fed chair. It almost feels like we're going to see a Javier Malay Argentina. President, you know, coming in with the chainsaw, they want to cut rates so aggressively, this administration, and Jerome Powell has sort of been a buffer against that, and Naresh has been using the term disinflation. I don't want you, the listener, to confuse that with deflation. Deflation means an increase in the purchasing power of your dollar, something that we rarely see. Disinflation means a slowing in price increases, meaning the rate of inflation goes down. And yes, I think it's been pretty obvious, and I've stated on the show before as well, that the Fed cares more about the employment situation than they do the inflation situation, probably, and you as an investor, you need to be careful what you wish for, because low rates sound really good, and they can be, but high employment typically correlates with high interest rates of all types, and lower employment typically correlates with low rates of all types. Rates get lowered because they know that the economy needs the help so you can't get both. You can't get both high employment and low rates. That condition doesn't persist for very long. And the Naresh during this part of the cycle, it's really been unusual and interesting at how new build properties have such advantages for investors today, including the aberration that the median new build property costs $33,500 less than the median existing property. That data is per the NAR when we think about new build property. Well, wait, first of all, that sounds amazing, and some people are incredulous about that, but there are reasons that the average new build property costs less. A lot of times the size is smaller. A lot of builders are building further from city centers. So I think before an investor gets in and buys a new build property, one really important question for them to ask is, oh, okay, well, how far is that property from an employment center. But otherwise, it's really the right time in the cycle for new build. New build can make your investment more passive. You know, you've got new fixtures, of course, and a warranty, and you're going to have lower insurance costs as well, typically, on a new build property. And Naresh, as you're talking with our followers and investors about new build property. I'm just kind of wondering, do you get more people that want to self manage the property because it's new build, because they figured that their maintenance and repair requests are going to be fewer? Or what do you see in there?

Naresh Vissa 32:35

No, not at all. Because the strength of GRE is that we connect investors, we coach investors so that they can own real estate around the country. They're not owning real estate in their neighborhood or in the area that they live in. We only focus on markets that make sense, generally linear markets, state friendly landlord friendly states, those other markets we are focusing on. So even with new builds we are seeing, I would say 100% of investors saying, hey, I want professional property manager, managing the property that's extremely, extremely common, that is the norm. I will also say, with new builds you brought up earlier, when you introduced me, I own several properties. The last two properties I bought were new construction. Were new builds. Yeah. And I personally comparing the first six properties of rehabs to my last two, which were new builds, I've had far fewer issues with the new builds, not just far fewer issues. I would say overall, the profitability has been greater with the new builds, despite the pro forma initially showing that I would barely Break Even now, I did buy several several years ago before all this appreciation and inflation hit. But it certainly helped a lot to have new builds where the maintenance is far lower and where the quality of the tenant is extremely high. So I generally recommend our investors, if you have the capital available, and generally, just to keep things simple, I say if you have $100,000 in liquid cash ready to go, there's no reason why you shouldn't be buying a new build. Would I waste my time with the rehabs, with the burrs. I mean, those could be profitable too. You should never say no to anything but the new builds. I've slept better at night because of those reasons, because I know at least for the first 10 years that there aren't going to be any major problems and the quality of the tenant is going to be far higher. So I'm a huge fan of new builds, not pre construction. Pre construction means you're buying a plot of land, and then you hope that the builder is going to build a home on top of it. And most of the time, the builder does, but many times, as we saw during the pandemic, there were key. Countless stories around the country of developers selling pre construction and then nothing ever got built. They ended up flipping the land and generating a profit off of it. I don't recommend those at all, but new construction is the way to go. And I'll also add one more tidbit about the previous topic that we talked about, regarding interest rates also remember that lower interest rates mean that the government and their debt they're going to be paying, they can refinance their debt and pay lower interest on their debt when interest rates go down. So that's also going to help reduce the the deficit, and it's going to help reduce the debt as well. So that will help bring inflation down.

Keith Weinhold 35:42

We're talking about buying a property that's already built with new construction, and in a lot of cases, like we'll talk about shortly, it's already tenanted for you as well. So it really reduces the guesswork and the waiting. And of course, new build properties tend to appreciate better than existing properties. So, yeah, tell us more about new build properties, because they tend to be in Florida and Texas that really has an outsized number of them right now. And that's where the builders are really giving incentives when we talk about appreciation, and where we think about appreciation going in the future. You know, appreciation has been really tepid, really boring. Prices have even contracted a little in some Florida and Texas sub markets, but with the long term trend, visual capitalists just shared a terrific map from today to 2050 for example, the Texas population is expected to grow 27% one of the fastest growth states that there is going to be. And a lot of people say, Oh, isn't it going to pass California in population soon? No, not anytime soon. It'll be decades. California is expected to grow 8% over the next 25 years, but Texas is a place where the numbers still can make sense on new build, because you have some overbuilding. So some builders are really incentivized to give you a good deal.

Naresh Vissa 37:06

Well, there are several markets in general. Let's just talk about it. You use an important term, which is appreciation. With new builds, the likelihood of appreciation is greater. This is statistically backed up. You can go check your sources, but the likelihood of appreciation is far greater with new builds compared to older rehabs, a property that's 50 years old, six years old. In fact, those properties probably appreciated early on in their life cycle, and that's just generally how it works. So with new builds, I say look, cash flow is still important. Cash flow is one of the tenets of real estate paying five ways. It's one of the core tenets of get rich education. But you also have that appreciation play with new builds. Again, it's about markets, because if you're buying a new build in, let's say a California or a New York or a New Hampshire, some really anywhere in the northeast, then it is somewhat of a speculative play, depending on the price point, depending on a lot of different other factors. But when you're talking about the markets that we operate in at GRE you brought up two of them, Florida and Texas. There are other markets, like in Tennessee and Oklahoma, where we have new constructions, and they are also positive, cash flowing, high appreciation place. So you just never know what's going to happen. I bought a new construction, for example, just outside of Memphis six years ago. It was just outside of Memphis in Mississippi six years ago, and I bought it for purely cash flow purposes. The pro forma looked good. Property was brand new. It was near several areas where there were many jobs. So I said, Hey, this is a good cash flow play. And I even remember asking my sales agent, hey, what do you think about appreciation? I usually never buy for appreciation, but this is a new construction. What do you think? And he said, You know what? I don't know if this is really going to appreciate that much. I'm not really sure about that. So I said, that's fine. I like the cash flow. Well, fast forward, six years later, as I said, we you just never know what's going to happen. We saw this inflation. We also saw an influx of people migrating into Tennessee, migrating into Mississippi, especially that Mississippi Tennessee border migrating into the Memphis area. Now we have the Trump administration, sent in the National Guard about about a month ago, sent in the National Guard into the Memphis area, and they haven't left. They're still there, and crime has is at least based on the numbers that crime has really the National Guard has made a big difference on crime, and that's usually the number one deterrent for a market like Memphis. The point that I'm making here is that you just never know what's going to happen with these new construction builds. If you can get positive cash flow, I always tell our listeners. Shouldn't buy a new construction that's negatively cash flowing. You still want to protect yourself. You don't want to be paying money out of your bank account to own a property. Money should be coming in. So you still want to be positive cash flow. And the appreciation is a huge, huge plus, even in areas that you would not think or that you would not expect to appreciate all that much.

Keith Weinhold 40:22

Appreciation just is not as much of a story over on some other platforms, perhaps, or the way that people think about it, because if you pay all cash, appreciation isn't that good for you, but you're leveraged at four to one or five to one with a 20 to 25% down payment, which can really give you those outsized rates of return, which aligns with what we talk about here at GRE Well, we have a live upcoming virtual event. It is this coming Thursday, and before I ask you if you have anything else to tell the audience here as we wrap up, Naresh, it is hosted by you. So it is co hosted by our own in house investment coach Naresh, and our guest that you heard last week here on the show radio veteran Adam. The Event Thursday is called how to scale your portfolio with tenanted cash flowing new construction properties where you can get up to $41,000 cash back after closing, we talk about these builder incentives. So today's real estate market is really giving buyers opportunities for new builds that I haven't seen, maybe ever. Builders are incentivized to move their properties, and we've made headway with builders to get you up to a 10% cash back incentive at closing when you purchase, you can either take the cash at closing or boost your cash flow by buying down your rate, perhaps get some rent credits, so learn how you can take advantage and really prime yourselves for moves today that are going to lead to your success in coming years. And we have tenanted again, tenanted already occupied new build properties in hot markets like Houston, San Antonio, Dallas, Texas, ready for you to purchase with up to that 10% builder incentive so that you can cash flow from day one. And these properties are really in high quality communities, primarily owner occupied, high appreciation, upside, solid rent growth. So learn the strategy, learn the markets and even see available new build income property. The benefit of you attending is that you can have your questions answered in real time by Naresh or Adam. You can sign up for that now at grewebinars.com It is Thursday, November 13, at 8pm Eastern. Any last thoughts as we lead into Thursday, Naresh?

Naresh Vissa 42:45

Gre, webinars.com gre, webinars.com go to that website to register for our free online special event. It will be live. I'm going to be there with Adam. You heard on last week's podcast, we've got some great deals and great incentives, like what you said, Keith, and they're all new constructions. They're all new constructions, mostly in Texas. And these are major markets in Texas too. We're not talking, yeah, many of our followers and listeners, they see a new construction, and they're like, I've never heard of this place in Alabama, or I've never heard of this place in Oklahoma. These are in legitimate suburbs, areas outside of Dallas, Houston, San Antonio, some of them are even in Dallas, Houston, San Antonio proper. So these are markets that everybody is familiar with. It's not some podunk town that you may have seen on our GREmarketplace or GRE spreadsheet in an Arkansas or in Alabama. These are mostly in Texas. The incentives are great, and these are national builders as well. These are not small, no name, Mom and Pop builders. These are national builders who we are working with to offer these special incentives. These are names like you've heard. Many people have heard. Some of them are publicly traded companies like an LGI, that's a very large national builder. That's who we've partnered with to get these deals so grewebinars.com is the link to register for our online special event. GREwebinars.com. I hope to see all of you this Thursday,

Keith Weinhold 44:31

major builders, major markets and major incentives on new build property. You're going to hear more from Naresh on Thursday, it's been great having you back on the show.

Naresh Vissa 44:43

Thanks a lot. Keith

Keith Weinhold 44:50

oh yeah. Naresh does a better job of hosting GRE webinars than I do. In my opinion, you'll remember that I hosted them myself until 2020 23 but you know, maybe I'll come on to a future event for just the first five minutes on one of the upcoming ones, and give an intro before I let the real pros take over. This event is called really just what it is, how to scale your portfolio with tenanted cash flowing new construction properties. It's co hosted by Naresh and Adam, who you met last week. I have never seen this before, where the builder is giving you a fat 10% discount after closing, 10% you can use those 10s of 1000s of dollars to buy your rate down into the fours or other things like use it toward a down payment on another property, pair it with DSCR loans and pay no mortgage insurance on either property. You could buy one property or two properties or 18 properties through the event and DSCR loans. You might remember that means no time consuming income verification, no concerns about your debt to income ratio or W twos or tax returns. We'll show you how to do it all. Like Naresh was saying, we eat our own cooking. We ourselves. Here at GRE are investors too, and we are buying new build for our own personal portfolios. The time is right for this. It wasn't a few years ago, and a few years from now, it probably won't be either. Hundreds are already signed up for it. It is this Thursday, at 8pm Eastern. It's GRE, last event of the year. This is it one last time attend by signing up at grewebinars.com that's grewebinars.com Until next week, I'm your host. Keith Weinhold, don't quit your Daydream.

Speaker 4 46:59

Keith Weinhold 47:27

The preceding program was brought to you by your home for wealth building, get richeducation.com

Direct download: GREepisode579_.mp3
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Mon, 3 November 2025

Register here to attend the live virtual event "How to Scale Your Portfolio, with Tenanted Cash Flowing, New Construction Properties" on Thursday, November 13th at 8pm Eastern.

Keith introduces a profound life perspective: humans are typically allotted only 30,000 days. What will you do with the days you have left?

Every moment not spent building wealth is a moment lost forever.

Adam Schroeder, a real estate investment strategist, joins the conversation to talk about current opportunities with new build properties with significant builder incentives and the potential for high appreciation.

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577: The Geography of Wealth: Zero-Tax States, Big Returns with Victor Menasce

Complete episode transcript:

Keith Weinhold 0:01

Keith, welcome to GRE. I'm your host. Keith Weinhold, the real estate market is slow when this happens in a cycle. What does it mean to a real estate investor? What type of return can you really expect today? I'll tell you exactly, and you'll be surprised. Learn more about new build properties and why investors often prefer DSCR loans over conventional loans today on get rich education,

Keith Weinhold 0:28

since 2014 the powerful get rich education podcast has created more passive income for people than nearly any other show in the world. This show teaches you how to earn strong returns from passive real estate investing in the best markets without losing your time being a flipper or landlord. Show Host Keith Weinhold writes for both Forbes and Rich Dad advisors and delivers a new show every week since 2014 there's been millions of listener downloads of 188 world nations. He has a list show guests include top selling personal finance author Robert Kiyosaki. Get rich education can be heard on every podcast platform, plus it has its own dedicated Apple and Android listener phone apps build wealth on the go with the get rich education podcast. Sign up now for the get rich education podcast, or visit get rich education.com

Corey Coates 1:13

You're listening to the show that has created more financial freedom than nearly any show in the world. This is get rich education.

Keith Weinhold 1:29

Welcome to GRE I'm your host. Keith Weinhold, yes, America's favorite shaved mammal on a microphone is back with you for another wealth building week. Just the talking primate that's heavily mortgaged here. I'm also a landlord still waiting for a security deposit from back in 2018

Keith Weinhold 1:51

Hmm, oh, I'm so into self deprecation today that I forgot about the place names hitting you, from Dover, Delaware to

Keith Weinhold 2:01

Andover, Massachusetts and across 188 nations worldwide, you're listening to get rich education. There's a realization that can sharpen your investor focus when you think about the fact that, in a sense, how little time you are allotted in your life. It's something that I've thought about more. You're only given about 30,000 days. That's the typical lifespan of a human being, and that goes for both shaved mammals and others. Well, you've already spent 1000s of your 30,000. The question is, what are you doing with the rest? At some point, people understand or they better that they need to go out on a limb. There are people less qualified than you living the life you want to live simply because they chose to believe in themselves, and really, that's the moment everything shifts. belief. It's not a feeling. It is a decision backed by action. Too many people learn this lesson the hard way. They discover, often too late, that relying on one income stream is the most dangerous financial plan of all. A job can vanish. Federal Workers found that out amidst a government shutdown, a business model can change. AI can intrude. A paycheck can stop. But when you own assets that pay you month after month, no matter what you're doing, you slowly begin to untether yourself and move toward freedom. And here's the truth about pain and money. Poor and middle class households work for money, so to them, that's why every dollar spent feels like a little loss. It can even hurt, and that is why they hesitate even on opportunities that could change everything. The wealthy, on the other hand, own assets that pay them, so therefore every dollar spent feels like a seed, because it grows when you own enough income property, you can move away from constantly asking yourself, can I afford this? And start asking, What will this investment earn me? Over time, this mindset shift changes everything at that time when other people's money starts working for you, not the other way around.

Keith Weinhold 4:45

And here's the thought experiment I use, take the hourglass of your life and flip it, watch the sand fall. That's time, 30,000 hours, 30,000 grains. That is. Is time the one resource that you cannot get more of. So every day you delay prudently investing the sand does not pause. It just keeps flowing. But you can choose how that time compounds the sand that's left over and hasn't fallen through the neck of the hourglass. Yet that is your opportunity to build multiple income streams from real estate, from ownership and from leverage, it is your chance to replace anxiety with well autonomy. Every family with generational wealth can trace it back to one person, one risk taker who decided to stop trading hours for dollars. They believed in ownership and control. They believed in themselves. They acted before the sand ran out. If you've already started real estate investing, well, then you've already begun to break that cycle. If you've done it for a time, you're going to have more time, more income and more options than you had before. That is worth celebrating and scaling, because the best time to start was yesterday, and the next best time is before the next grain of sand hits the bottom.

Keith Weinhold 6:22

Later today, I'll talk about taking this sentiment and moving it towards something very specific and actionable. Now, in this era, the real estate market is slow. That is in terms of transaction volume, there just aren't as many sales. Sometimes this whole thing feels more sluggish than Jabba the Hutt after Thanksgiving dinner.

Keith Weinhold 6:49

5 million is a typical number of existing homes sold every year in the US. 5 million. That's normal. That's baseline during the pandemic frenzy. It reached over 6 million, and now it's about 4 million. That's why I say that housing transaction volume has slowed, and appreciation is only about 2% that's below historic norms, and rent growth is like barely doing push ups. It's two to 3% in single family homes volume now it has picked up a little here lately with lower mortgage rates, and so have home prices. Redfin now tells us that home price appreciation is 3% but most outlets say 2% some analysts that are more optimistic than me call today's housing market healthy. They don't call it slow. And why is that? Well, it's the healthiest it's been since covid, because now you have a good balance of buyers and sellers. The real estate market isn't so miserably deprived of inventory like it was back in 2022 in 2023 but I am going to go with slow now, as you know, I coined the phrase real estate pays five ways back in 2015

Keith Weinhold 8:09

But how exactly does that hold up in today's slow transaction market? Could an income property buyer's return even be disappointing now? Well, let's do it. Let's determine what you can expect if you purchase an investment property here in these slow market conditions, we'll determine your total rate of return in year one. And you know, this will be sort of like dating someone that's not the first date, but to really get to know them, to know if they're potential spouse material. You want to see them at their worst and be sure that they look good on their bad days. So let's just be conservative and use 2% home price appreciation. Say that you buy a 200k single family rental. Now a 20% down payment means 40k down. Sellers are willing to give you concessions now, say that they're going to pay your closing costs, because the 200k that you're paying is their full asking price, so it's your terms and their price. Well, say that you don't get any cash flow. The rent only covers the expenses exactly. Okay, so we're really painting on a not so pretty picture. Here, it would seem. Here we go, in a slow market, the first of five ways you're paid is that erstwhile appreciation. Your property only appreciates 2% from 200k up to 204k not so exciting, until, of course, as we know around here, you realize that your return is your gain on your skin in the game, your 4k gain divided by your 40k down payment gives you a 10% ROI. There it is leverage. Didn't just show up. It brought donuts. 10% just from the first of five ways you're paid. The second way is cash flow. Say that rent minus your 160k mortgage payment here and your operating expenses, that merely breaks even, like I was saying. So 0% additional return from cash flow. And before we add on numbers three, four and five to get your total rate of return in a slow market, let's take a moment to check on Jabba. How's Jabba doing? No, Jabba still hasn't gotten up from that heavy Thanksgiving dinner. It's still a slow market. We've confirmed that we're going to continue

Keith Weinhold 10:41

the third way you're paid, as any GRE listener knows by now, is with that ROA return on amortization, also known as principal pay down with a 7% mortgage rate in your 160k loan on this property, an amortization table shows you 1625 bucks a tenant made principal pay down. Divide that by your 40k down again, that is another 4% return. All right, so you add that to your 10% from leverage depreciation, and you've now got 14%

Keith Weinhold 11:17

next is your tax benefit. It's a 150k structure value, not the full 200k because raw land can't be depreciated. Multiply that by 3.6% depreciation, that means you've tax sheltered 5400 bucks. That is like a phantom loss that you get to show the IRS. Just a little more math here, and this is as far as you have to stretch it, in visualizing numbers in an audio format at a 24% income tax rate. That is 1296 saved on 40k down again, another 3% for you, and your running total is a 17% ROI before we get to the last one, which is inflation profiting, not inflation hedging, which almost everyone mistakenly says in real estate investing, it is inflation profiting.

Keith Weinhold 12:13

Your 160k loan gets eaten by 4800 bucks at a 3% inflation rate, divided by 40k down. And you know, inflation is usually the villain. Now it is the hero. You've got another 12% from inflation profiting. And here's the sum in this slow market, your total year one rate of return is 29%

Keith Weinhold 12:43

and you're like, my gosh, did that really just happen? Now you might want to skip back on some parts of that to help make it crystallize in your mind. I've got to tell you before I ran these numbers in this slow market with this 2% appreciation and even assuming zero cash flow, I thought your total rate of return would be in the low 20s, not this high, not 29%

Keith Weinhold 13:09

the numbers don't lie. They just don't get enough attention on CNBC.

Keith Weinhold 13:16

Now I did use shorthand and simplify. You would also have to adjust your 29% for inflation, just like you do for any investment. So then about a 26% inflation adjusted return for you. Wow. And if you want to know more about what I just used shorthand on, you can always watch the five videos on the five ways real estate pays for free at getricheducation.com/course that's get richeducation.com/course, the most valuable video course you'll ever see on real estate investing, but a huge investor lesson here, an epiphany today, is that it does not take a high growth market to build wealth. Even when it seems like real estate's half asleep, it can still work five jobs for you, we could be near the nadir of the cycle here.

Keith Weinhold 14:16

Appreciation has picked up in recent months, with mortgage rates being lower than they've been in a while, but even when appreciation and rent growth slows now, you can see that the ROA tax benefit and inflation profiting just keep working overtime. The bottom line here is that income property still pays a lofty 29% if you buy today, even in a slow market, and this is at a time when investors, a lot of them, don't know what to do with their money, since every market type seems to be near an all time high, and people don't want to buy in at those high levels, and savings accounts pay you less than a gumball machine, owning investment property proves its resilience. I mean, this is why we do this. It's kind of like stocks can party with a surge in an upcycle, and then they can bust and boom and bust and boom. But all the while, instead of partying, real estate just keeps its head down and works the night shift for you, your wealth quietly compounds in the background while the rest of the world panics or debates interest rates on LinkedIn or something.

Keith Weinhold 15:33

All right. Well, with that in mind, where can we take advantage of that real estate return and expect to do even better with it, even if the market did stay slow. Well, builders have unsold inventory in places like Texas and Florida, like I mentioned before, and to a lesser extent, in parts of the West as well, but the prices are too high out in the west for a cash flow investor. So today, you can buy at a discount in a way that you absolutely could not during the height of the pandemic.

Keith Weinhold 16:06

A guest and I are going to talk about a specific opportunity in today's market, and then how you can exploit it. The National Association of Homebuilders has even noticed that home flippers have switched gears, and increasingly, what flippers are doing is instead buying new build properties and then renting them out, because new builds have lower upkeep costs come with a lower mortgage rate because the builder is buying it down for you, they have lower insurance and they attract a better quality tenant that stays longer, even if the HVAC did break. That's okay, because new build homes often come with a warranty. The smart money knows that new build is where the opportunity is today. That's something that I've discussed for a while here, but today we're getting more actionable. CNBC let us know that the CJ Petra company reports that investors now make up the highest share of Homebuilders in five years. And you'll recall that we've had CJ Patrick, company founder, Rick sharga, on the show a lot with me here the past few years. Some say that the smart money is waking up again. I don't know investor activity is steady, but it's not really that much. It only seems like a lot because the wannabe owner, occupant, buyer has been priced out. So it's better to say that investor activity has been steady. Investors bought fully 1/3 of single family homes this past summer, and that is up from 27% in q1 I'll discuss that more soon.

Keith Weinhold 17:44

Hey, you know one thing that makes GRE different is that our show sponsors are here to supplement and benefit your specific investor activity. And another thing is that I use them myself. Thank God we are not here to tell you about pneumococcal pneumonia or your moderate to severe plaque, psoriasis. I don't even know what that stuff means. Freedom, family investments and Ridge lending group. I very know what they're about. I'm a satisfied client with each of them myself. So listen in.

Keith Weinhold 18:21

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Keith Weinhold 19:32

the same place where I get my own mortgage loans is where you can get yours. Ridge lending group NMLS, 42056, they provided our listeners with more loans than anyone because they specialize in income properties. They help you build a long term plan for growing your real estate empire with leverage. Start your prequel and even chat with President Caeli Ridge personally while it's on your mind, start at Ridgelendinggroup.Com, that's Ridge lending group.com

Kathy Fettke 20:05

this is the real wealth network's Kathy betke, and you are listening to the always valuable get rich education with Keith Weinhold.

Keith Weinhold 20:14

I'd like to welcome in a new guest to the show. He is a real estate investment strategist that's been working in the media industry since 2001 and throughout the career, he's held the title of a local news reporter, podcast host and producer for nationally syndicated companies like NPR. He's been in real estate nearly 20 years. Adam Schroeder, welcome to the show.

Adam Schroeder 20:48

Thanks for having me on. I really appreciate it.

Keith Weinhold 20:50

Yeah, I'm looking for your read on today's real estate market, just the general landscape overall, because Adam, I've shared that national transaction volume is down about 25% appreciation is still there, although it's been slow. Rents are just steady. We do, however, still have this supply that is down among entry level homes, something a lot of media articles broad brushstroke and don't understand, and really it's still a valid question to ask, even today. Is there any better risk adjusted return than income property that's bought, right? So what are your thoughts on the overall real estate investing landscape?

Adam Schroeder 21:30

Yeah, overall real estate investing, it's kind of like what you said, entry level housing. I remember I saw a heat map. This was probably five or six this was pre covid. It was maybe even seven or eight years ago. It was a heat map that showed, like, new construction, home pricing, and, you know, there was like 500,000 and up. Was just this massive chunk. And then there was all these ones, ones that were under about 300,000 it was around, like six or 8% or something like that. It was really, really small. If you look around, it hasn't gotten bigger. And so the question of inventory and availability and pricing, they're never going to talk about it on the national media, because there is no entry level home in Chicago, in New York, in LA, you're not going to find that. I mean, you're paying 200 grand for a doghouse in the backyard, if you're there. And so we are finding the entry level housing, but I think right now, an oversupply of inventory in some of these markets is a very good opportunity for people. If you're buying for with the right fundamentals, if you're buying in an area that's growing and has good long term, you know, 8,10, 15 year diagnostics. Then if you're buying now with builder incentives and all of that, yeah, your year one, year two, year three. Appreciation may not be the greatest because of that oversupply, but if you look at what's happening now with construction starts in a lot of places, builders have gotten scared off. They're not really starting them now. So if you're buying new now, in 2,3,4, years, all of the inventory will be sucked up, and there won't be new homes coming to the market. So you're going to be one of those people who has one of the newest homes in the area, more people are going to want to be getting in. And so your appreciation and rent growth is much more likely to be growing. So that's one of the things I love to look at, is I look at what new home starts, what happened in the past, what was oversupplied, but now, who's what cities aren't building. And if I know what cities aren't building, then I can compare it to, okay, well, you know, there are some cities in California that aren't building anything I'm not going to buy in California, but there are some cities in Minnesota, in Oklahoma, you know, in Texas, where they're not building anymore. And if it's landlord friendly and can cash flow and all of that, Sign me up. I'm bullish on parts of this, of the United States real estate market, not the whole United States real estate market.

Keith Weinhold 23:55

It's been pretty well documented that parts of the nation are overbuilt. However, especially in Florida and Texas. And I brought up the point months ago Adam that if you buy, say, a new build income property in temporarily overbuilt pockets today, five years from now, looking back five years onto today, you could be like, Yeah, I bought five years ago, when some areas were actually overbuilt, and I snagged a deal, and the builder was even giving me incentives like my rate at that time, because, you know, long term, the demand is going to be there and that the absorption is going to be there. So it's about knowing what's happening and then identifying the right time in that cycle. In today's environment, some feel that DSCR loans are a better option for investors, and what that means a debt service coverage ratio loan is that you qualify for the loan not with your personal income, but instead with the property's income. Do you see more investors employing dscrs?

Adam Schroeder 24:55

We see a ton for a really good reason. That is simply put, especially if you're utilizing these builder incentives, buy down rates on DSCR frequently outperform ones with conventional like some of the lenders we're working with. I look and let's say you're putting 4% I looked at it this morning with an investor with 4% of purchase price towards your loan on a DSCR loan, you're down to 5.49% on a DSCR, but conventional, you're at 5.75 that doesn't happen for the most part. It's just something that right now, the risk profile of investors is allowing the rates to be either at or better than conventional many times. Plus, people love to put their properties in LLCs for protection, and they'll worry with conventional, oh, what if a due on sale clause gets triggered, even though it's really hard to trigger that, if you worry about it, well, why not just get a loan that's equal or better than a conventional that doesn't go on your you know, debt to income and can go straight into the LLC to begin with, and then your hands are clean the whole way through, and you're not having to worry about transferring titling. Honestly, my wife is about to murder me because I have some properties that were meant to go into an LLC two years ago that are not currently in an LLC.

Keith Weinhold 26:17

Well, hopefully you'll live until the end of this interview. Tell us more about DSCR loans, and maybe some that, no you talked about the upside, maybe some red flags and some things to look out for, times when we would not want to employ that loan type.

Adam Schroeder 26:30

A lot of it with the DSCR you're looking at like you said, they're not evaluating you necessarily. Now you do have to show reserves. You do have to show that the property will perform on its own. But sometimes full doc loans with conventional can be the way to go, because, like I said, in the past, it used to be that DSCR loans were three quarters of a percent, or a full percent higher than the DSCR. Or, yeah, DSCR was higher than the conventional. And so if you could get a four and a half with a conventional versus a five and a half on a DSCR. It's well worth the extra paperwork that might come with doing it to save yourself that money and really build up your cash flow. We are just in a very awkward time of investing, where the investors for DSCR loans, the people who are buying those mortgages, are not the same people who are buying the Fannie Mae Freddie Mac secondary loan market, and so they just have different risk profiles, which allows the rates to be different. So that's really the big thing. Is, if you've still got your Fannie Freddie slots, it's worth talking to your lender and saying, what would it look like if I did this loan? What would it look like if I did that loan? Where am I? But when it's all said and done, if you're really close or equal, I would almost always skew towards the DSCR to protect myself, go straight into an entity and keep it off of my debt to income ratio, plus on dscrs. You also have the option, and we don't recommend this for every property or even for certain people, depending on risk profile, but you have the option to do an interest only loan with 20 or 25% down, which allows you to do kind of what we call cash flow management, where people get worried about interest only loans and say, Well, I'm not building equity. I'm not doing this, not doing that. Well, you're not, but you're also, you can still put principle towards your loan every month, right? Like a principal loan, maybe you're throwing 200 bucks a month, a principal towards that. Well, with an interest only loan, you can still put that $200 in. But what it means is, if there's a month where maybe you have some repairs that need to be done, or something like that, don't pay the principal and on the interest only, you're still okay on a principal and interest. If you can't pay that, if you just pay all the interest, they're still going to say, well, Keith, you're late on your loan, right? And so it gives you a little bit more flexibility, but it's not for everyone. It's not for every property, so definitely talk with lenders about that. But conventional loans don't offer that. DSCR loans can.

Keith Weinhold 28:53

There's always opportunity in every real estate market. It's just identifying what those are and then ethically exploiting the opportunity. So we're talking about buying in areas that are temporarily overbuilt utilizing DSCR loans. And another advantage in this market, which is an aberration, is the fact that new build properties, like few times in history, if any, actually cost less than renovated existing properties.

Adam Schroeder 29:20

Yeah. I mean, when you can get into, you know, an A class neighborhood with 80% owner occupied, 90% owner occupied, and you're getting in for way less than the median cost of a home in the US. You mean, you're getting in for, I mean, we've got new builds in the 220 range on some of them up to 400 you know, which is still below the median cost. Yeah, that's really good. If you're looking to get into any a class neighborhood, or even B plus neighborhood, finding a property that's 200 $250,000 in those areas is tough. It's just tough. And so especially because as pricing went up for everything with inflation, you know you can't do. Do a cheap rehab anymore. If you're going to do a good rehab, you can't do a cheap rehab. I talk to our teams all the time and tell me, Hey, I did, you know, I only spent $70,000 to renovate this property and like that is a lot of money. I know you're getting it out whenever you do the burn, you know, or sell to an investor, but still a lot of money to put in to get there.

Keith Weinhold 30:20

Well, then let's talk about identifying possible growth markets for long term investing success. New build properties tend to appreciate better than rehab properties. And you know what's funny, Adam, I was just sharing this with my audience on a recent episode. I largely disagree with this long time investing axiom in real estate that says appreciation is just icing on the cake. I think I know what they're saying that doesn't help you out on a month by month basis, but we're in real estate investing for the long term and long term, more of your returns typically come from leveraged appreciation than they do on the cash on cash return from cash flow. So to me, appreciation is not just icing on the cake. In a lot of cases, it is the cake. And really, that's something that new build can offer more of.

Adam Schroeder 31:09

Yeah, I mean, it's almost in, especially in today's market, it's almost like cash flow is the icing on the cake. You know, you can get a property that, you know, is in that really good area, like we're talking about, and is, maybe it's appreciated a little bit now, but it's very likely to appreciate a lot later. If you're only making, if you factor everything in maintenance, vacancy, all of that, and you're making $100 a month, that's solid, you know, if you look at it, and if you're in those areas, if you appreciate 5% on a $300,000 property, let me tell you this, you're not going to make $15,000 in cash flow that year on that property. So if you look at the people who are really retiring on cash flow, are usually the people who have 100 200 300 doors or something like that, and they play the law of large numbers. I don't want to play the law of large numbers personally, I want to have really good quality assets and have fewer of them, and really work on having positive cash flow, but having the equity growth that allows me to pull money out tax free and either buy more investments or utilize how I want in my life.

Keith Weinhold 32:16

Exactly. If your property cash flow is $100 a month and it's a single family home. Some people say, Oh, that's awful. You would need 100 of them just to get 10k pass it per month. Now you're thinking wrong, and you're oversimplifying it like to your point, with the 300k home and 5% appreciation, that's 15k in one year, you're building equity that can be borrowed against, tax free, and you're building up that lump sum cash flow windfall down the road, if you will, in real estate pays five ways and cash flow matters, but it's only one of five profit centers and all that. So yes, we're so aligned on that one, appreciation is not just the icing on the cake, it's substantially more than that. Well, I've got something to announce. Adam here is going to co host, along with our own longtime investment coach, Naresh, an upcoming live virtual event. And it's called how to scale your portfolio with tenanted cash flowing new construction properties. And it aligns in every way with the trends that we've been talking about and that Adam and I have been identifying here. The event takes place next week. But first, tell us more about what you and the ray shall be speaking about at the event there. Adam.

Adam Schroeder 33:29

one of the biggest concerns people have about real estate, and one of the things that can eat in your cash flow more than anything, is vacancy. I mean, vacancy can kill your deal whenever it's all said and done, because it's one thing, if you're, you know, break even or $100 a month positive cash flow. But whenever you've got a vacant property and you're negative $1,500 a month, that can hurt, that can hit the wallet. And so what we really love, if you can hit it, is a tenanted property that's new and is in a growing area, yeah, and we've got that thankfully. I mean, we've been able to work some really good relationships with national builders that have allowed us to get into they were doing a lease to purchase option with tenants who wanted to buy their property but didn't have it saved up, and these people didn't exercise their option, but they've renewed their lease so you can come in and buy a property that has them in place. It is a house that they wanted to buy. So how long are they likely to stay? Probably quite a while. They like the school district, they like the neighborhood. They like everything about it. You're coming in, you've got the builder incentives we talked about before, and you're just in a positive cash flow position already. Now we're in Texas, which I was actually funny enough. Earlier, right before this interview, I was reading about the states that are going to grow the most, projected until 2050 and they expect Texas to grow by nearly 9 million people between now and believe it was 2050

Keith Weinhold 34:55

everyone's asking, when is it going to pass? California is the most populous state in the nation.

Adam Schroeder 35:01

Well, it depends how many people. In California are part of that 9 billion we've gotten quite a few of them there. As somebody who lives in Texas, and we're in the big cities too. We're not in the Podunk Texas towns you think about in, you know, east or west Texas. We're talking Houston, Dallas and San Antonio, which are three of the top, I believe, 15 largest cities in the country. We're getting some really good incentives. You can get up to right now, 10% builder incentive. So a $300,000 house, you have $30,000 that you can use. That's massive. Yeah, you can get that money back after closing. We can buy your rate down. And we have some people who have literally taken the whole 10% and put it towards a fixed 30 rate at four and a quarter percent. Wow, they are locking themselves in at four and a quarter. Or we have some people who say, like, we were just talking about cash flow is not a concern for me. I'm going to take half my down payment back, and I'm going to go buy another property, because I'm only in this property for 10% now, and so they're able to be, you know, roughly break even in a good growing area, and they can acquire a second property. So you're buying two properties without mortgage insurance for essentially a 30% total down payment, and you're getting your 10% back if you buy the second property. So it's just really incredible time. Like you said, we haven't seen a time like this before. We were able to get into the wholesale division of these builders and provide these incentives that I've personally never seen before. Some of our reps are buying these homes themselves, so we're putting our money where our mouth is. It's just a great time, especially like you were saying, these homes the inventory, take advantage of the opportunity, right? And there's an opportunity that's presenting itself. And if you look at the long term demographics of Houston, Dallas and San Antonio. It's an arrow pointed up. That's what those areas are.

Keith Weinhold 36:46

100% I mean, it's almost as predictable as anything. There's never a guarantee, but continued population growth and obvious need for housing there is about as close as you can get. That's massive. 10% back, 380k purchase, $38,000 back at the closing table to use in discount point buy downs completely or half on discount point buy downs and half to pocket and use on another property or use on your next vacation or whatever you want to do. That's massive.

Adam Schroeder 37:18

Yeah, it's fantastic. One thing I forgot to mention about Houston. It's one of the things I love that people don't think about has the third most headquarters of fortune 500 companies in the country, behind New York and Chicago. So people don't think about that when they think of Houston. But I love to throw that out there, because it's there. I love Houston. I lived there for seven years. It's where I met Naresh, actually, and would happily move back there again

Keith Weinhold 37:42

right? Houston has moved so far past the monolith of just having oil be the economic driver. So we're talking about tenanted new construction properties in pretty hot markets, Houston, San Antonio and Dallas ready for you to purchase with that 10% builder incentive. And these are in communities that are primarily owner occupied, so they do have that high appreciation potential and that potential for solid rent growth. So on the live event, the webinar that you are invited to attend from the comfort of your own home, what you can do is just learn more about this overall strategy and why the time in the market is right for this. Learn more about those geographic markets themselves and then their drivers, and even see available new build income property. And the benefit of you attending a live is that you can have any of your questions answered right then and there. You can sign up at grewebinars.com, and Adam, before I ask you if you have any last thoughts, that event is next week. It is Thursday, November 13, at 8pm eastern time again, you can sign up. It is free. Space is limited, so that's something that you want to do now at grewebinars.com, any last thoughts? Adam

Adam Schroeder 38:51

yeah, I will just remind people there's always a reason to buy real estate, and there's always there's always a reason not to buy real estate, and depending on which one you subscribe to, you can always find those opportunities, or you can scare yourself off. So, you know, find the right opportunities that are there for you and your investing style and jump in. Because if you look at what's happening right now. When rates start coming down, owner ox are going to jump back in, and that tends to lead to prices going back up. Like Keith said, these are 85% owner occupied areas, and you're setting yourself up for success. And if you do it now, you can always refi later if rates come plummeting down right so find the right areas. Find the reasons to buy and go for it.

Keith Weinhold 39:41

This is a time when builders are really willing to give you a break. Take advantage of it if you possibly can. Adam, it's been great having you here on the show, and our audience looks forward to seeing more of you next week.

Keith Weinhold 40:00

Yeah, some real potential here. I'm rather excited for your future as a listener next week, investors like DSCR loans, since the qualification looks at the property, not you, and see conventional loans are more for owner occupants. They're fine. They work for investors too. But with dscrs, besides their other advantages, they're a check on making sure your property is profitable. It is just your rent divided by your debt service. That's all it is. So for example, with a $1,000 rent and a piti payment, principal, interest, taxes and insurance payment of 800 bucks. Well, then your DSCR is 1.25 Investors love them because there's no personal income verification, no W twos, tax returns, pay stubs. There's no debt to income ratio bar for you to have to clear also conventional loans often cap you at 10 financed properties, and DSCR loans have no such limit, so there's faster underwriting and easier approval. But with dscrs, look out. I mean, there could be some higher fees, and you might have a three to five year prepayment penalty. But buy and hold investors often keep the property that long anyway, so grow your income streams with dscrs, even when the w2 world says no. And notably, dscrs have absolutely nothing to do with job of the hut either. No sluggy concerns there

Keith Weinhold 41:42

if you've wanted a deal on a property today, here you are with these new build incentives that are really good, better than what most builders are giving looks like. Here's your chance. One reason that the builders are giving us a deal is because of the bulk of GRE buyers. This is for you, if you might want one property or 14 properties load up with these up to 10% builder incentives, or just attend the webinar and learn more. We got into the wholesale division of these builders. We got them right where we want them. The properties are typically already tenanted. So plant your flag in the ground, and call this the pivot point. This whole thing could be a bigger deal than the first man to walk on Mars. We'll see, though, no man has walked on Mars yet, but you don't need to wait that long. Take one of your 30,000 days that you've been gifted in this life of yours, the 30,000 days you've been allotted on this earth to win back some of your future finite time. It is next week, Thursday, the 13th, at 8pm Eastern. It's also GRE last event of the year, your last chance, a live, virtual event where you can attend from the comfort of your own home or anywhere. And it's free. Registration is open now. Sign up at gre webinars.com that's gre webinars.com Until next week, I'm your host. Keith Weinhold, don't quit your Daydream.

Unknown Speaker 43:17

Keith Weinhold 43:45

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Direct download: GREepisode578_.mp3
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Mon, 27 October 2025

Keith discusses strategies for amplifying investing returns and reducing lifetime tax burdens through real estate, geography, and industry.

He compares tax burdens by state and explains how investors can leverage low-income tax states and low-property tax states.

Podcast host, investor and developer, Victor Menasce, joins the conversation to highlight the industrial real estate market, emphasizing the demand for warehousing and logistics.They touch on the potential in industrial outdoor storage and the complexities of data center investments.

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576: How to Cut Vacancies and Keep Tenants Twice as Long - with Mid South Home Buyers

Complete episode transcript:

Keith Weinhold 0:00

Welcome to GRE. I'm your host. Keith Weinhold, we're talking about how you can use real estate, geography and industry to amplify your investing returns over the course of your life and permanently reduce your lifetime tax burden today on Get Rich Education.

Keith Weinhold 0:21

You know, most people think they're playing it safe with their liquid money, but they're actually losing savings accounts and bonds don't keep up when true inflation eats six or 7% of your wealth. Every single year, I invest my liquidity with FFI freedom family investments in their flagship program. Why fixed 10 to 12% returns have been predictable and paid quarterly. There's real world security backed by needs based real estate like affordable housing, Senior Living and health care. Ask about the freedom flagship program when you speak to a freedom coach there, and that's just one part of their family of products. They've got workshops, webinars and seminars designed to educate you before you invest, start with as little as 25k and finally, get your money working as hard as you do. Get started at Freedom, family investments.com/gre, or send a text. Now it's 1-937-795-8989 77958989, yep, text their freedom coach directly. Again, 1-937-795-8989,

Corey Coates 1:34

you're listening to the show that has created more financial freedom than nearly any show in the world. This is get rich education.

Keith Weinhold 1:49

Welcome to GRE from Milford, Delaware to Milford, Utah and across 188 nations worldwide. I'm Keith Weinhold, and this is get rich education, the voice of real estate investing since 2014 now, what do you think about a multi week government shutdown? That means there's a cut in your service level, but of course, oh geez, there's no commensurate cut in the amount of taxes that you pay. This is the government's version of charging rent on a vacant unit. That's what's happening. That's what we've been looking at in the biggest expense you'll ever pay in your life. It isn't housing, it's taxes. Before I get to how you can reduce the amount of taxes that you'll pay throughout the course of your life, which is huge. Let's pull back, and I guess it's a bit of a real estate geography riddle for you, imagine if there were a place that existed, and this place is within a 15 minute drive of a seacoast, 15 minutes of mountains, within 15 minutes of an urban core of about 300,000 people, and within 15 minutes of an international airport and a decent airport that has direct, non stop flights to Europe. Even, could that place exist all of that? I mean, it almost sounds too good to be true when I put it like that, yes, it does, and it's in the United States. On top of that, this same place with proximity, within 15 minutes of all four of those things, has zero state income tax and zero sales tax. Yes, all this is in the same place, and that's where I am coming to you from today, Anchorage, Alaska. I traveled a good bit, and I can't think of another place in the US quite like it. A quick check of Chad GPT corroborates this, saying that the US places that come closest are Honolulu, Juneau and Bellingham, Washington. They come the closest to that. Now, the biggest downside, in my opinion, is a long, dark, cold winter. Well, that's when I do more traveling, but I spend many months of the year right here in Anchorage. And my guest today, who you'll hear from later, I haven't had him on the show in years, where recently he I and his wife, Natasha, toured Anchorage. I drove them around.

Keith Weinhold 4:29

first, let me tell you about a creative way to pay both a low property tax and a low income tax, and that is no matter what state or province that you live in now, the big three taxes that people pay throughout their lives are income tax, sales tax and a property tax. Those are the big three, and when you combine those to come up with the highest and lowest tax burdens by state, you'll notice that coastal states often pay the most. They generally have the biggest burden, because coasts attract people, and therefore those highly populated areas, they need infrastructure, say, for example, more bridges, and they often have more social services for people, and it costs tax money to maintain all of that. Now, look, will people move to an area specifically because they can get low taxes there? Like is that amenity in itself an attractant? Actually, not so much. No, you do get some people to move to Puerto Rico, predominantly for that reason. But interestingly, the two states with the lowest overall tax burden, that is, when you combine income, sales and property tax, the lowest are Alaska and Wyoming, and yet they have the fewest people living there, under 1 million people each. So the two states with the lowest tax burdens are also the two least populous states. So it is not making people flock there. So where you choose to live? Oh, that has more to do with your overall quality of life. And you know that's probably as it should be. Well, whether you own your home or you rent your home, you effectively do pay property tax, because tenants end up subsidizing the landlord's expenses. Most property tax maps that you see out there, those national property tax maps, they show the average tax bill that a household pays by state, regardless of real estate values. Well, that's not so useful. You might remember that a few weeks ago in our newsletter, I sent you the best and the smartest property tax map that I have by county. You'll remember that it showed the property tax paid as a percentage of the home value, so that relative basis is what matters more. When we look at property tax paid that way, we can more transparently see that the highest property taxes are generally paid in three US regions. Those three regions with the highest property taxes are the northeast, much of the Great Plains and Texas now a 1% property tax rate is, for example, when you have to pay 4000 bucks a year on a property value of 400k That's that 1% and the lowest are in the Western US and the nation's southeast quadrant, often under 1% we're just talking about the property taxes only here. Now out west, lower property taxes, they still rarely create investor cash flow, and that's because purchase prices are too high out west, and rents don't keep up with them proportionally. But low taxes, they do adequately sweeten the most investor advantaged areas, that is in the southeast Indiana, Missouri, Oklahoma, Hawaii, and a bunch of the Mid Atlantic states. All right, so they are the investor advantaged areas that also have low property tax. The nation's lowest property tax rate is in Alabama. Roll tide, I think I've mentioned that on the show before. All right, so that's property tax, but states have to get their revenue somewhere, so oftentimes, if their property tax is low, well then they have to make up for that. So therefore their income or sales tax can be high. Now as far as income tax, each state has their own of course, the high ones are New York, New Jersey, California and Hawaii. Those are many of the high ones. But there are nine states with zero, absolutely zero, state income tax, and those nine states that are free of income tax are the aforementioned, Alaska, Florida, Nevada, New Hampshire, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Washington and Wyoming and Washington gets somewhat of an asterisk that has a little wrinkle in it. That's one of the nine with the wrinkle, you'll pay zero income tax on your wages in Washington. It only applies to high earners, capital gains tax income there, all right. Well, all of that is true for everybody there, every US citizen. But here's the arbitrage that a real estate investor can create. If you live in one state and you own property in another state, you always pay property tax where the property is physically located, not where you live. I mean, any longtime out of state real estate investor knows that. So you can therefore live in a state with little or no income tax, for example, Texas, and then a Texas resident can skirt Texas's higher property tax by investing in a different state that has low property tax, like, say, Alabama or Tennessee. Oh, well, now both your property tax and your income tax are low this way. And congratulations, you have just legally exploited the tax system. Some examples of a low income tax home state where you live and a low property tax investor state where your investment property is, so that you get the best of both worlds. They are, Texas is your home state, and Alabama is your investment property state, like I just described, and then a few other scenarios, so that you can legally use the system to pay both a low income tax and low property tax. Are having Pennsylvania as your home state and Missouri as your investor property state, having New Hampshire as your home state and Tennessee is your investor property state. And then another example, having Washington as your home state and Arkansas as your investor state. Those are just some examples of combinations there about how you can live in a low income tax state and then also enjoy having your investment property in a low property tax state and see perhaps now you're doing this without having to move. Yes, investing in low property tax states. Now, of course, property taxes are set at the county or city level. They're not set federally, but just within one state. Sometimes property tax can vary dramatically, which you probably know, but two of the biggest examples of this are in Illinois, Cook County, which is Chicago, and also Miami, Dade County, Florida. I mean those jurisdictions, they have tax rates that can make wallets cry more than their surrounding counties do, and some states have maximums, legal limits ceilings on property taxes. California proposition 13 famously limits property tax to 1% of assessed value, and then the increases are capped as well. I mean this means the two California neighbors with identical homes can pay wildly different taxes, and Florida is still looking to completely eliminate the property tax. Can you imagine that? I mean, it seems doubtful that that will happen, but you can conceive of how much more desirable that would make Florida properties, and that would probably make all Florida housing values skyrocket now, just because a property has a high property tax rate that doesn't disqualify it as an investment property alone, it's just one consideration that'll show up in your proforma, your cash flow. So the bottom line is that as an income property owner, property tax is mostly passed on to your tenant, but paying a low rate still keeps you more flexible and profitable. So think of a map of states with low property taxes, sort of like a treasure map, but instead of x marking the spot, it marks where your money will go the furthest.

Keith Weinhold 13:36

And if you want real estate maps like I'm talking about here, and stories and great charts and investment opportunities that I cannot fit onto the channel. Here, you can grab them in my free weekly newsletter at gre letter.com and part of this is because I just cannot adequately describe a map or a chart to you here in an audio format. You get more in the letter free wealth, building insight every week. And it comes straight from me. 1000s of investors read it every week. Don't live below your means. Grow your means. Get It At gre letter.com Again, that's gre letter.com

Keith Weinhold 14:20

something interesting just happened when Wells Fargo released their housing forecast for the next two years. Let's discuss that between today and 2027 they expect the federal funds rate to drop by a full 1% but they don't expect mortgage rates to drop as much only about a quarter point drop over the next two years in the 30 year fixed rate. For next year, they expect home prices to rise three and a half percent, and then the year after 3.7%. looking down the road a couple years here, and this is sorced by Wells Fargo economics and the US Department of Labor and the FHFA and more. All right, so only a small reduction in mortgage rates and a pickup in home price appreciation, although still pretty moderate. Now you gotta take any interest rate prediction with a grain of salt, like I've told you here before. I personally, I do not forecast interest rates, and when you're looking at interest rate predictions, you are squarely looking at a waste of your time.

Keith Weinhold 15:34

Now, a recent Gallup poll wanted to find out what Americans consider to be the best long term investment. That's the question that the pollsters asked, what is the best long term investment? And the findings were that 16% said stocks. I mean, despite the fact that stocks only seem to make insiders wealthy, still somehow 16% of Americans consider stocks to be the best long term investments, a higher share of Americans, 23% said gold. That actually surprises me, that nearly one quarter of Americans say that gold is the best long term investment, when only about 10% of Americans own gold in the physical form, like bars or coins. And part of this could be driven by the recent hype, where the gold price has more than doubled just since last year, and it broke above $4,000 an ounce for the first time in history this month. All right, so 16% said stocks, 23% said gold. And what's number one in the Gallup poll for what Americans believe is the best long term investment? It's real estate. Ah, well, they got that right. That actually gives me a little more faith than Americans there. Now, when it comes to real estate investment, you know, there's this long running mantra or catchphrase out there that I really disagree with. I mean, you've certainly heard this before, but it just does not resonate with me. And that is, appreciation is just the icing on the cake. That's the catchphrase I am not feeling the vibe there. How in the heck is appreciation just the icing on the cake? The presumption, the inference here, is that cash flow is the main driver of an investment philosophy, and then if you just happen to get appreciation too, oh, well, that's a little sweetener. Like the mantra would say cash flow is the cake, the majority piece, and then appreciation since the icing, oh, that's only a little thing. No, that's misleading. You usually get more of a return from appreciation than you do cash flow.

Keith Weinhold 17:56

I mean, on, say, a 400k income property, what if you only get $200 of cash flow? That can happen? That's $2,400 a year. But instead, 5% appreciation on that property gives you $20,000 a year. That is almost 10x. I think what the icing on the cake, curious catchphrase means is that cash flow is important because it controls the mortgage. Well, then I think it's just better to say that appreciation is not an inconsequential thing. It's often the biggest thing. So is appreciation just the icing on the cake? No, it certainly is not. In fact, I'm going to talk more about that next week when I've got something special planned for you here on the show. What I'm going to do then is look at the ways real estate pays you five ways in a slow market, the real estate market is slow. If you look at it on a basis of transaction volume, say that you buy a property today and over the next year, you don't even get what Wells Fargo forecasts say you only get 2% appreciation and zero cash flow. Just break even on a monthly basis. I mean, there's surely some disappointing numbers, but just say that's what happens. Well, next week, I'm going to add up what your total rate of return would be even in this dour scenario, and I think that you are going to Marvel be flabbergasted at how profitable you are if you just got 2% appreciation and zero cash flow. That's next week.

Keith Weinhold 19:36

As far as today, I'm about to bring in a super smart guest that hasn't been on the show here in a few years. He's usually a fellow faculty member on the real estate guys invest or summit at sea. But he wasn't there with me this year, so we met up in Anchorage. Instead, we're talking about changes to commercial real estate that market, and the opportunities that you might be able to find there from Industrial land, an activity that well generates noise, like Bitcoin mining operations and growing data centers with the increased use of AI. And as you listen, see if you know what I mean about how he feels professorial in his approach, and I mean that in the best possible way you can learn from him. He's from Ottawa, Canada, an international conversation coming up next. I'm Keith Weinhold. You're listening to Episode 577, of get rich education.

Keith Weinhold 20:34

If you're scrolling for quality real estate and finance info today, yeah, it can be a mess. You hit paywalls, pop ups, push alerts, Cookie banners. It's like the internet is playing defense against you. Not so fun. That's why it matters to get clean, free content that actually adds no hype value to your life. This is the golden age of quality email newsletters, and I write every word of ours myself. It's got a dash of humor. It's direct, and it gets to the point, because even the word abbreviation is too long, my letter takes less than three minutes to read, and it leaves you feeling sharp and in the know about real estate investing, this is paradigm shifting material, and when you start the letter, you'll also get my one hour fast real estate video, course, completely free as well. It's called the Don't quit your Daydream letter. It wires your mind for wealth, and it couldn't be simpler to get visit gre letter.com while it's fresh in your head, take a moment to do it now at gre letter.com Visit gre letter.com

Keith Weinhold 21:46

the same place where I get my own mortgage loans is where you can get yours. Ridge lending group and MLS, 42056, they provided our listeners with more loans than anyone because they specialize in income properties. They help you build a long term plan for growing your real estate empire with leverage. Start your prequel and even chat with President chailey Ridge personally while it's on your mind, start at Ridge lending group.com, that's Ridge lending group.com,

Tarek El Moussa 22:19

what's up? Everyone. This is hgtvs Tariq al Musa. Listen to get rich education with Keith Weinhold, and don't quit your Daydream.

Keith Weinhold 22:27

Hey, it's great to welcome back a longtime industry friend. He's a senior partner at y street capital. He owns a development company that's active in nine US states and two Canadian provinces, and he's the host of the real estate espresso podcast. Hey, it's great to have back. It's been a few years. Victor Menasce, great to be here. Keith, well, you know what's different? I mean, we were together doing some sightseeing around Anchorage, Alaska. You I and your wife here just a few weeks ago. That was great to have you. And then you had a nice Alaskan cruise after that. It was lovely. It was great to spend time with you in person, where you and I have spent time together at conferences all around the nation. So thank you for that. Yeah, it was great to do some fun stuff and like, Oh, hey, this guy knows a world outside of just talking about cap rates all the time. So Victor, the commercial side is pretty dynamic, and it sure has been lately with all the changes that we've had in the world, really starting with the pandemic almost six years ago, now, that includes the industrial space and how the need for warehousing and storage has changed. So from a real estate perspective, tell us about what you're seeing there.

Victor Menasce 23:41

We're seeing a lot of changes. Of course, there's a lot of uncertainty that's been injected by the current administration in Washington in terms of international trade. But even if you put that aside the flow of goods from wherever they're manufactured to the end customer, that flow is still there. It's one of these things that often creates inefficiencies, especially as you start to think about really optimizing the overall cost. You know, if you think about what inventory costs you to have on a retail floor where you might be renting that retail space at, I don't know, 55 $60 a square foot, and it's occupying very, very expensive real estate, if you can instead put that in a warehouse that's maybe at 10 to $15 a square foot. Oh, but wait a minute, you've got a 27 or a 35 or a 40 foot ceiling height, and you're stacking it seven to nine levels high. Really, the cost of that inventory has gone way, way down because you're putting it much less expensive real estate, right? Okay, so here is one of the efficiencies of a retailer doing e tail instead of brick and mortar retail, absolutely. And you know, we often see situations where the last mile, you know, we want to get that instant gratification as a consumer, but we don't necessarily want to be having to drive to that retail space. And we don't that's. Supplier doesn't necessarily want to pay Amazon for warehousing that particular product. So often, the fulfillment is done locally, that last mile Logistics is extremely important. That's putting a lot of pressure on this category of product that has traditionally been called Flex industrial. These are those places in the industrial park that you might see an electrician or a landscaping company or a plumber or anyone like that that has an office at the front of 14 or 18 foot Bay at the back and a bit of inventory. A lot of that product right now is being pulled off the market for many different reasons. Some of that's just disappearing and that land is getting repurposed for residential. Some of it's disappearing because people are putting gyms and pickleball courts and things like that and those types of products. Some of it's disappearing because people with exotic car collections want to use that space for a man cave. There's many different things that are demanding that particular product, and there's very little of it getting built. So that's another area right now that is under a lot of pressure. On the demand side, not a lot of new supply and rents are going up much, much faster than they otherwise should be. Talk to us more about the industrial space from the supplydemand perspective, what do people want and what do people need? It varies widely. There are companies that are in manufacturing, they will often look to refresh their investment in equipment. They may not have the capital, so they will sometimes do a sale, lease back of their building, of their facilities, so that they can then repurpose some of that capital onto into the equipment side, so that they can maybe modernize their manufacturing. That's another area where we see significant shifts happening. In industrial we also see a lot in logistics, where the most efficient way to move goods is a 200 year old technology called rail, and it's still alive and well. I mean, if you think about the cost of shipping a container across the country, you're going to spend about two cents per ton mile to move that by rail, or about 10 cents per ton mile to do it by truck. So that's a five times difference in price. That means a container from Los Angeles to New York is going to cost you about $1,400 if you're moving it by rail, or about $7,500 if you're moving it by truck. But if you're now part of the rail system, there's now logistics that you have to worry about at either end. And so if you want to make all of that work, those transfer hubs become extremely important, and there's just not a lot of them,

Keith Weinhold 27:38

okay, so it might only cost 1/5 as much per ton mile to move a good over rail as it does road. But you're sort of talking about the logistical challenge of, oh, getting it that last mile from the rail Terminus to the end user.

Victor Menasce 27:53

absolutely. And there can be a lot of cost associated with that last mile. So if you can solve that problem for the logistics companies and lower their cost for that last mile. That's got significant value, and that's another demand for industrial land. And very few cities are adding industrial land to their master plan. You know, warehouses don't vote, so they don't tend to take other land and zone industrial In fact, if anything, it goes the other way. There's a lot of pressure to take land that was zoned industrial and rezone it for commercial or for residential. In fact, we see that in a lot of cities.

Keith Weinhold 28:30

Now, you the listener, if your entrepreneurial wheels are turning, you can see the opportunity for, Hey, can I get in and help solve the problem in that last mile demand creatively. How do I think I could get in? How do I think I could do that, as long as that demand is sustainable? Victor, when we talk about industrial real estate, like we are here as real estate investors, one of the things that we often think about is site selection. Tell us more about that through the industrial lens

Victor Menasce 28:58

I think there's a couple things that matter. Number one, you can't pay too much for it. It's got to be at the right price. So you've got to be thinking about, you know, we always do what's called residual land value analysis and and that happens in residential, commercial, every single asset class, everyone works backwards from the answer to the question. So the answer is, here's how much profit I need to generate. Here's my capital cost. Here's, you know, you keep backing up and you say, well, now what's left over? That's what I can afford to pay for the land. So you always gotta be working backwards from the answer to the question. And this is no different. We do this in industrial as well. So you gotta make sure that that situation where the numbers work. Number two, you've gotta make sure that there is the right supply, demand dynamics. Got to make sure that the property itself is not contaminated. That can be a liability. If that was once a heavy industry site, then there could be contamination. You want to make sure that that's somebody else's problem, not yours, or if it is your problem, that you can mitigate it where the cost is bounded. So you got to. You know, look at all of these things together. And then, of course, there has to be good connectivity, good access to freeways, to major arterial roads, good access to rail. If you can get a Rails per on the property, even better. But even if you can't, as long as you have good access to major roads. You know, I always look at this through the lens of product design, where you're designing a product for a very specific customer. And so it's really, it starts with the end customers need in mind. And it's not a speculative process. It's really understanding who that customer is designing a product for them and making sure that you're delivering it at the right price. So it's always, always working backwards from the answer

Keith Weinhold 29:43

nowwhen we think about site selection and geography of where we're putting this real estate cities are often located on a body of water, like a bay or a river, often runs through a city, but yet you think of industrial use. Land is not your priciest land, but yet you think of a city center as your priciest land. Oftentimes, where do you put the industrial real estate with regard to the city center? I usually think of it as far outside of that. But are there other trade offs or nuances there?

Victor Menasce 31:11

it can be. You know, it's a question of whether you're doing a greenfield project or an infill project. If the land was previously zoned industrial and you're now just redeveloping it, that can make a lot of sense. If it is a greenfield project where you're looking to build new then, yeah, it's probably going to be in the outskirts, because that's where you're going to get the best land cost. And then, of course, you got to be thinking about what the end product is, and it what's it going to cost you to get it where it needs to be. Most of these projects are built slab on grade, which means that the surface has to be suitable for that sort of building. The land might be cheap, but if you've got to bring in half a million yards of gravel to get the site where it needs to be, it might not look cheap anymore, because you could import so much material. So you have to think of the cost of the land in a shovel ready context, because you can spend an awful lot of money moving dirt, moving gravel, things like that that will be necessary for an industrial project. So when we look at land for that product, we're always looking at it through the lens of, is it in a floodplain? Is it high enough ground? Is it drain? Well, all of those things that come into the cost of preparing the site to accept that kind of a building.

Keith Weinhold 32:23

Now, when we think about what goes on in an industrial space in your mind's eye, you might think of an asphalt plant, or you might think of the noise in some rumbling concrete trucks. With regard to that, what are your thoughts about nimbyism? Do you see much, not in my backyardism among communities with industrial real estate.

Victor Menasce 32:44

Oh, absolutely, without a doubt. And oftentimes that's one of the reasons why industrial land often gets pushed out away from those residential zones. So once you're outside the radius of people who can object, then there's no objection. So that's one way to solve it, and often a good way to solve it, by the way, but you also have to be mindful the fact that if there is potential contaminants coming off of that site, you don't want to be near a body of water that can carry it down into an aquifer and so on. So you've got to be thinking through containment issues. You've got to be thinking through noise propagation issues. There's been, in fact, a lot of issues with data centers, where the air handling and the the air conditioning systems right generate a lot of noise, and that noise often carries over very large distances. And you know, we're talking noise levels that would be very offensive to most homeowners. Some people have had to move because the noise levels have just been so continuous.

Keith Weinhold 33:42

I like the way you put that Victor. It's sort of like, yes, industrial parks are built outside the radius of the loudest objectors. That's right where they're going to go. But that's really the way that it is sometimes when we think about more contemporary uses for how we use industrial real estate today. You touched on data centers, also Bitcoin miners, you know, these are some of the things that generate noise. So what are some of the considerations with those two?

Victor Menasce 34:06

If you're looking at a data center, they consume a lot of power and they generate a lot of heat. The most efficient way to get rid of heat is with water. And that sounds a little bit strange, but you think about it this way, if you heat a molecule of water by one degree. I'm going to actually give you the textbook definition of a calorie. You take that water and you heat it by one degree, that'll consume one calorie of water. That's the definition of a calorie. And if you take it from the liquid state to the vapor state, just that phase change at 212 degrees Fahrenheit, or 100 degrees centigrade, that phase change is going to consume 500 calories. So you're getting rid of tremendous amount of heat by evaporating water, and that's why data centers consume so much water, is because they evaporate the water. That's the way they get rid of the heat. They evaporate it into the atmosphere. And that's how they get rid of the heat. It's the most efficient way to do it, but it consumes a lot of water resources. And then, of course, you've got to have the power to get into the data center, and a lot of places don't have the electric infrastructure to provide what's needed on a sustained basis. So you need not just good power, you need good power redundancy. So if there's a power failure here, you've got maybe redundant paths. So if one transmission line goes down, you've got alternate paths to keep the data center running. And you need the same thing also with communication, so multiple redundant fiber pathways in and out of the data center. So all of these things come into site selection. And then if you got all of that right, you got to overcome the neighborhood objections.

Keith Weinhold 35:45

Yes, that's right. We're doing a little science here with Victor Menasce, experienced international developer, and Victor when we think about industrial real estate, and we're here on an investing show. You know, maybe an investor sees potential in data center real estate or something like that. So for the individual investor, what can they do? Can they do anything individually? Are there funds to invest in, to either avoid or be attracted, to tell us about how the investor can get in?

Victor Menasce 36:15

We're not active in data centers. We're active more on the industrial side. I know the existence of data center funds. I know, for example, Kevin O'Leary, very famous Shark Tank, is a major investor in data centers. If you look him up, there might be some potentials there. Many of the major players in artificial intelligence, Oracle right now is taking on a boatload of debt to build data centers for open AI, so they're going to both build and operate those data centers. And I don't know where they're getting their capital, but they're getting a lot of it, or at least that's what's been announced publicly. Data centers require a lot of at least at that scale, require tremendous amount of infrastructure. We're talking hundreds of acres. We're not talking a small warehouse here that might be a million square feet. We're talking big, big acreage for those scale projects and for more localized projects. Yeah, there are smaller data centers, but they're not that economical to run. So it's usually the large ones that are the most cost efficient.

Keith Weinhold 37:16

Well, two things Victor is there anything else about industrial real estate? Our listeners should know maybe something I did not think about asking you and then tell our audience how they can learn more about what you're doing.

Victor Menasce 37:27

We see opportunity in particular. We think of it almost like a covered land play. We're very active in the industrial outdoor storage space where there is need for things to be stored outdoors. It might be landscaping companies that want to buy materials by the truckload. It might be car dealerships that have an excess of inventory. It might be boat and RV storage. There's many different uses for secured outdoor storage, and these are products that are designed very specifically for customers that have those needs. And as a covered land play, frankly, some of the best returns that are available in the marketplace. We've looked at a number of different things, and this is where we're placing majority of our energy right now as a development company is in that space, because we see it as an underserved segment of the market where there is not a lot of institutional money that's come into the play yet, so we're very active in that space.

Keith Weinhold 38:22

And how can our audience learn more about what you're doing

Victor Menasce 38:25

best is to reach out to us at y Street, capital com. Be happy to have if folks want to learn more about our projects. There's a place where they can sign up on the website to get more information. And love to have you as guests or as listeners to the real estate espresso podcast, and that's a daily show, seven days a week, so love to have you as a listener for that show as well.

Keith Weinhold 38:46

And that's the letter Y, Y Street, capital.com,Victor Mesance, it's been enlightening as always. Thanks so much for coming back onto the show.

Victor Menasce 38:55

Thank you so much.

Keith Weinhold 39:02

Oh yeah, good stuff from Victor as always. Another thing that he, I and his wife did in Anchorage when he was here recently is visit, well, it was not an AI data center, but we went to a mint that sells gold bars, nuggets and bullion. I really just looked. It was fun to look with Victor and actually pick up and hold gold nuggets, something that you cannot do online. I didn't have any intent to buy anything with the run up in precious metals prices. I made my last purchase of those in the middle of last year. So a year and four months ago today, I hear about lots of people rushing to buy precious metals. Now, amidst this big price run up and the run up might still have a ways to go, but no, the time to buy was like a year and a half ago or more. It's not now getting caught up in the euphoria this sort of exhaltation where you're paying double the price.

Keith Weinhold 40:03

next week here on the show, I've got more that I want to share with you on today's opportunity in new build rental property. How real estate pays five ways in a slow market, which is just fascinating. And I've got a GRE live event to tell you about next week as well, and more, lots of intriguing wealth building material here in future weeks, and then sometime after that, my own right hand assistant here at GRE is going to come out of the show and ask me some of your listener questions. It's the first time you'll hear her voice on the show. But more importantly, get my answers to your investing questions. If you'd like your question answered on a listener questions episode down the road, as always, you can write into us at get rich education.com/contact, that's get rich education.com/contact, until next week, I'm your HOST. Keith Weinhold, don't quit your Daydream.

Unknown Speaker 41:02

Keith Weinhold 41:30

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Mon, 20 October 2025

Keith sits down with Terry Kerr and Matthew Vanhorn, the leaders of America’s oldest turnkey real estate provider, Mid South Home Buyers, to unpack the practical systems that keep thousands of rental units profitable and tenants happy.

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Instead of fighting for eyeballs on Zillow, they target HR departments at hospitals, universities, and major employers, tapping into pre-screened, income-verified tenants with stable paychecks and predictable work schedules.

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575: The American Dream Now Costs $5 Million

Complete episode transcript:

Keith Weinhold 0:01

welcome to GRE I'm your host. Keith Weinhold, learn about how to cut your rental property vacancies and keep tenants twice as long. Why Memphis, Tennessee stays the cash flow King, and exactly where to find really low cost, quality properties today. That make sense from day one today on, get rich education.

Keith Weinhold 0:26

You know, most people think they're playing it safe with their liquid money, but they're actually losing savings accounts and bonds don't keep up when true inflation eats six or 7% of your wealth. Every single year, I invest my liquidity with FFI freedom family investments in their flagship program. Why fixed 10 to 12% returns have been predictable and paid quarterly. There is real world security backed by needs based real estate like affordable housing, Senior Living and health care. Ask about the freedom flagship program. When you speak to a freedom coach there, and that's just one part of their family of products, they've got workshops, webinars and seminars designed to educate you before you invest. Start with as little as 25k and finally, get your money working as hard as you do. Get started at Freedom family investments.com/gre, or send a text now it's 1-937-795-8989, yep, text their freedom coach, directly. Again, 1-937-795-8989,

Corey Coates 1:39

you're listening to the show that has created more financial freedom than nearly any show in the world. This is get rich education.

Keith Weinhold 1:49

Welcome to GRE from New York's Long Island Sound to Washington's Puget Sound and across 188 nations worldwide. I'm Keith Weinhold, and you're listening to get rich education. There's an economic trend that you need to be aware of. We're going to talk about how you can play it in this era, sources ranging from Redfin to Housing Wire and others, you know they're all in agreement that the transiency rate, that mobility rate for Americans, is down. And what that means is, when people find a place to live, whether they're a property owner or a renter, they are staying put longer. They put this big, heavy anchor down, and that kind of goes along with employment. Although the unemployment rate is low right now, there aren't very many people moving jobs or changing jobs. So the rate of hiring is low, that's bad, but the rate of employer firings is low, that's good. So on balance, Americans are keeping their job if they've already got one, and they're keeping their home if they've already got one. But because movement has slowed, as we are in this slower housing market, I'll drastically oversimplify here. All right, a few years ago, you might have had a tenant stay for two years, and then there would be a one month vacancy between tenancies today, double both of those. You're more likely to see a four year stay, but two months between vacancies. So your occupancy rate, therefore, is the same in both scenarios, but there's less movement. Again, oversimplifying, but you can see the effect a longer vacancy period is bad, a longer tenant retention period is good, all right. Well, how do you increase your tenant's length of stay and decrease that vacancy in order to be more profitable as an investor and yet give your tenant a satisfactory experience too well. One thing that you can do is list your vacant unit with an employer. Yeah, advertise it through a local stable company. You're going to end up with higher quality tenants. See, there's already this built in screening that was done for you. The employer basically did that for you. So when you work directly with especially hospitals, universities, corporate campuses or military bases, what you're doing is you're fishing from a pond of already vetted, income verified and drug screened candidates. See these tenants what they had to do. They already had to pass HR background checks and employment verification in order to get their job. So for you, that saves you both risk and time compared to the you know, the Craigslist style roll the dice crowd. Now, Of course, we cannot discriminate against certain groups of people, and we'll get into that shortly. But of course, steady employment equals steady rent tenants sourced through employers. They usually have reliable paychecks, often through direct deposit. They've got predictable work schedules, and there's going to be less income volatility. So that means that you'll have fewer late payments and lower eviction risk. And some landlords, you know what they do, they even structure rent payments through payroll deduction. I mean that essentially automates the rent collection. Yes, you can do that. Employees who move for a job, they often sign longer leases, because relocating again would be a hassle. So many will stay in your unit as long as they stay employed. That could be two years or five years, especially in the health care, education and tech sector. So less turnover means fewer make ready costs for you, fewer showings and just more ease and peace of mind. So advertising through employers that is a really low competition marketing channel as well. You know, most landlords, they blast their listings on Zillow apartments.com or maybe Facebook marketplace. Well over there, your post is just one out of hundreds, instead of all that competition, what you're doing is you're finding quiet, uncrowded channels when you utilize these employer housing boards and their HR relocation departments, and this way you can even get inside that company's internal newsletters so you're reaching renters before they can even start scrolling listings over on Zillow and see employers love this too. It's not like the employer is having to do a favor for you. They love it, because when they can help new hires or transferees find housing, it's better for that company. It reduces the employee's stress. It improves the retention at that company. If they have an employer that's satisfied and has a good place to stay, and it really boosts that company's recruiting success. So you're helping yourself, you're helping that company, and you're helping their new employee, which is your tenant. So this makes HR departments. They are surprisingly receptive to you. They might even circulate your listing internally or add you to their housing resource list. So this is a perfect fit for these hands off turnkey investors. So if you're doing that or you're managing properties remotely, this employer outreach, it really gives you a nice extra layer of reliability. And as far as the people that will be your tenants, think about nurses, engineers. IT staff, sometimes teachers, sometimes military based personnel. I mean, they are all ideal long term tenants. Now the way that you can actually do this and put it into practice is identify major employers that are near your property, that could be hospital systems, that could be universities or manufacturing plants, then contact their HR or the relocation department, and after that, it's not hard just provide them with a concise PDF or a one page flyer with your property photos and the monthly rent amount. And one thing you can do, and you should in this case, is put the distance or the time it takes to travel to the employer from your rental unit, and then add your contact info. That is exactly how you do it. You can offer a small incentive, like $50 off the first month for employees. So this is a slick way to advertise your vacancy with employers and make you more profitable over time.

Keith Weinhold 7:02

Now today, we're going to talk to who is actually America's oldest turnkey real estate company. As far as we know, they're based in Memphis, Tennessee, and we'll learn how they advertise a vacant unit and screen prospective tenants and place them and maintain their units over time. They are called mid south homebuyers. You've heard them on the show before, and because of their success, both investors and other real estate companies, they actually listen in intently to what these people have to say. I mean, others study them and learn from them. These are the people other companies study, and you're still going to hear from their principal and their sales lead about reducing your vacancy time and increasing your tenant duration. And, you know, it's just kind of funny how often Memphis, Tennessee, which is where they're based, how often this comes up in cash flowing real estate conversations that you have out there over time? I mean. And Memphis consistently has the best cash flow, maybe, amongst any substantial Metro in the nation. We'll just say among metros that are big enough to have a major pro sports team. I mean, Memphis does have the NBA Grizzlies. There aren't many other cities that can even compete with Memphis as the cashflow King, although there are some that you can work into the conversation. Indianapolis, Cleveland and Oklahoma City are some of those places. Now, before we're done, you'll also learn about how, even following this generation's big inflationary wave, how purchase prices are still as affordable as they are in both Memphis and Little Rock. I mean, this is going to make you ask out loud today, how could they still be so low? We'll also talk about conventional, enduring property management techniques today, now next month here on the show, we're going to talk about how you can use AI to self manage your properties, and that show next month is going to be with an expert straight from Silicon Valley. We're going to talk to the CEO of hemlane then and their AI driven property management software. She used to work for Apple, and she's got a Harvard Business School degree. That is next month today. It's about tried and proven techniques to make you more profitable as an investor

Keith Weinhold 11:24

I'd like to welcome in longtime friends of the show, with the emphasis on long time since they were first here with us, nearly 11 years ago, They are those ever steady property providers based in Memphis, mid south homebuyers. They also serve Little Rock, Arkansas. I have physically walked their offices and properties in person myself. They are, in fact, America's oldest turnkey real estate provider. And it's the return of their founder and principal, Terry Kerr and a second guest who you'll meet shortly, Terry, welcome back on of the show.

Terry Kerr 12:04

Thanks so much, Keith, so glad to be back.

Keith Weinhold 12:07

Congrats on your success. Your model and operation is prominent and exemplary nationally. You've now grown to 110 w2 employees there, and your 13 plus year property management guru who's been leading that entire division is now your sales director. It's terrific to introduce him to the world today. Matthew Van Horn,

Matthew Vanhorn 12:31

Keith, so great to be on here. Long time listener of the show. Really great to meet you.

Keith Weinhold 12:36

Yeah. Appreciate it now you'll soon be listening to yourself on the show. GRE, listeners are familiar with the turnkey real estate model. What you do is buy a distressed property, you rehab it, and then you place a tenant in the property, and you hold on to that for investors across the nation for the production of long term cash flow. Well, let's get an update between Memphis and Little Rock. How many properties do you hold under management for investors now and then? What percent are single family rentals versus other types?

Terry Kerr 13:07

Right now, we're about 57 maybe a little closer to 5800 and the vast majority of them are single family houses. I'm going to say probably. What 5% are duplexes? Matthew, something like that. Yeah, something like that. So no other multis, just single family, most of them rehabs. And of course, now we're doing a new construction direct to rental as well.

Keith Weinhold 13:29

Interestingly, with 58 to 5900 rentals, I mean, you can easily sort of be your own surveying outfit in an informal way, in finding out what's happening with the market, what all the dynamics are. So why don't we start at the beginning, when you're marketing and advertising and looking to place a tenant, tell us about just what you look for, just what you need to avoid. I mean checking for the tenant. That typically involves an employment check, a credit check, a rental history. Sometimes something might appear like a red flag, say, a 590 credit score. Would you always accept tenants in that condition? Because there are times when there are extenuating circumstances when a tenant with a 590 credit score actually might be a good placement. So tell us more about that screening.

Terry Kerr 14:17

As you know, it is renters that drive our returns as investors, and so selecting the right renter is where the money is made in this business, for sure, we are doing as much screening as we can for our renters. There's a lot that goes into that. We actually have a whole processing department. You know some people here who spend their whole day working in the processing division. And what you really got to watch out for, as far as red flags, is just fraud. There are so many ways you can use machines to defraud, and we have people who are able to detect and weed out the bad actors there, but we know what works really well. We have, for instance, in. Arkansas, the main employer of our residents is Baptist Health Medical Center, and we love our healthcare workers there. So that's a place that, you know, starting from the marketing side, we're going to dial up our marketing in those places we're going to go to the HR department, or we're often in the HR department of Baptist Health Medical Center, pushing and asking for referrals from them, you know. And same with just referrals in general, good tenants tend to refer other good tenants. We're of course, looking for strong income that we can verify. And more than anything, we're looking for strong, credible current rental history, so someone who's paying the rent today somewhere to a verified landlord, not their sister, you know, but a very verified landlord. That's the big thing, Keith.

Keith Weinhold 15:50

Tell us more about that. That's great that you're being proactive and getting right in there with a stable, steady employer. That is where our rent comes from. After all, are there any other red flags, maybe things that people would not think about identifying as a red flag when it comes to that employment, in that credit, in that rental history

Matthew Vanhorn 16:11

one reason I bring up the localized marketing that some people may not think about is that renters who move from Out of state often will land in a place and then stay there for one year, which is fine, but then they often don't renew their lease and they'll move somewhere else. Now, of course, what we have to do above all is we have to be legal, you know, so we can't discriminate against someone from coming from out of town, but what we can do is dial up our localized marketing so that we're getting people who are in the neighborhood, who love the neighborhood already where they are, and so that contributes to longer residence days, and it's just little things like that. Once again, you're looking for employment that you can verify, so that you know that you're getting a quality renter.

Terry Kerr 16:59

I'll also say that one of the ways that we try to attract the most potential residents we can is by having a free application. So typically, a property management company is going to charge, you know, 50 to 75 bucks per applicant. And we're very fortunate that we've get a terrific deal from Equifax, because we're also lenders, we do some lending to our investors, which gives us a really good deal on paying for credit checks. And so we waive those fees for our residents. And so a lot more folks are going to apply with us, because it doesn't cost them anything to apply. And of course, the more people that apply, you've got a much better shot at a filling the property quicker, but also finding a much better resident.

Keith Weinhold 17:44

well this is a great part of building the connection. One of the first interactions they have with you is realizing that you don't have any application fee. And AI can be great for marketing and for doing things like writing listing descriptions, but you build that human connection there. For example, you do in person showings. You invite prospective tenants in current tenants into your physical office, kind of replacing society's trust crisis with humanity.

Matthew Vanhorn 18:14

Yes, that's right, Keith. In the last 12 months, we've spent more money than ever on technology, so we are leaning heavily into creating the systems and processes that allow us to get to our service quickly. And at the same time, we've invested more into staffing up in the past 12 months, into inviting people into our office, you know, and we can still do everything remotely. We can do it virtually for folks who want that, we found that a lot of residents love to look us in the face, and they like to come down to our office, and they like to sit across from Karen and across from Gabby, and they just love the personalized experience that we give them. It's hard to quantify it, Keith, but I just really believe that it drives longevity, right?

Keith Weinhold 19:04

Having a face behind that rental because your properties are freshly rehabbed, or, in some cases, they're new builds, so hopefully you won't have too many tenant service calls once they do become a resident, and you don't need to interact with them all the time, though you're there for them, but once you have chosen a tenant, and that tenant is placed, you know somebody has to be the adult in the lease, and we sincerely hope that the tenant is one of them. So with regard to that, how do you help ensure that tenants keep making on time payments, and you can keep tenants and not get ones that break the lease. So can you speak to us about that, how you can help identify that in the screening and then that ongoing relationship?

Matthew Vanhorn 19:47

I will say that perfect vetting does not necessarily lead to perfect collections, because it turns out that every one of our residents, they are humans, and as humans, we run into things you. Know, divorce can happen. Relationship breakups can happen, job losses happen. Just very human things happen. And so we like to stay in touch with our residents as often as possible, and very much encourage an open line of communication. We very much believe in compassion based collections here at Mid South. And so when residents fall upon hard times, we are truly there for them. Memphis actually has more nonprofits per capita than any place in America then. So when residents do fall on hard times, you know, and it happens, we're actually able to reach out. We have connections with several agencies that can help with rental assistance for renters who need it, we found that by pouring into our staffing with the resident support and solutions department that we've had a lot of success in collecting just by keeping that relationship intact when the pandemic hit. For instance, and I know that's been a few years from now, and maybe we all want to forget it, our collections rate actually went up during that time, and I attribute that largely to the fact that, number one, we had a relationship in place with our renters. We staffed up, and matter of fact, we had a full time person just working to get rent assistance for those renters who kind of had been disenfranchised by the pandemic

Keith Weinhold 21:26

during pandemic times or post pandemic times whenever it is us as investors, we're always interested in reducing that vacancy time. We seem to be in a period, at least nationally, where when people get a hold of a place, they want to keep it and hold on to it. In a lot of markets, the duration of a tenancy has been increasing. So despite what era that we're in, can you talk to us about some of the best practices for how you reduce the vacancy time? Because we all know vacancy and turnover is our biggest expense over time. As investors,

Terry Kerr 21:58

I like to say, you know, at the heart of what we do is making sure that when a hard working, single mother comes home at the end of the day, she can give her child a hot bath. And that's not possible if the water heaters out. And that's just one example, but our main job is to give a good quality of life to the residents that we are caring for, and if we can do that, and if we can treat them with respect when they do fall on hard times, like Matthew said, they're going to want to renew the lease. So we have got a almost twice the average length of stay as the industry average, which is we've got about a four year average resident stay. And when folks move out of a mid south house, it's not because they can find a better value they're going to get. They're already in the nicest house on the street. And if something breaks, we're out there lickety split to fix it. When folks move out of a mid south house. It's either because they're downsizing. Kids are moving out, or they're going up because they're having their family increases and they've got to move up, or maybe something happens to them, like Matthew mentioned, you know, death, divorce, disability, these things happen, right? But no one's moving out because they can find a better value or because they're not getting the service or respect that they deserve.

Keith Weinhold 23:25

That says a lot. Being managers of 5800 to 5900 properties, which gives you this sort of canvassing or de facto surveying ability that you have. What are we seeing for the direction of rents? We'll get into rents and prices later, because nationally, rents are just holding steady. They're really not rising very much. What do you see there?

Matthew Vanhorn 23:49

Yes, we saw them fairly stable. Over the course of 2024 I have started to see an uptick here in the past few months, I will say, which is encouraging for investors, for sure, each month, I'm looking at all of the renewal rates personally, to kind of look at that, engage the market. And like you said, it really is helpful. I mean, yes, we have all the tools, Zillow, rentometer, all these things, but there's nothing like just our own data of seeing, hey, what's the house across the street renting for? You know, how long did it take for that to rent and incorporating that into our data. And right now, our houses are moving at a faster pace on the leasing tip, which rent increases tend to follow that

Keith Weinhold 24:30

when it comes to optimizing rents, a lot of that coming back to reducing vacancy time. There are a number of strategies that one can employ now it's not with you guys, but I have a single family rental home in another market, and one promotion that that manager is running and encouraged me to participate in is a 50 inch flat screen TV having that and giving it away to the tenant. Somehow, that only costs $250 so I decided to do that. At for a vacancy that I have there in that market. Now, some investors might say, you know, why am I buying TVs for a tenant? I'm already providing them with a place. If the rent is 1500 bucks, a $250 TV only costs five days of vacancy, and that helps me reduce that vacancy period. Might even make a tenant want to stay longer, so sometimes you got to be thinking about how your tenant thinks, and you can come up with inventive ways to reduce vacancy. Do you have anything like that, any small concession that you've offered or have needed to offer in either market?

Terry Kerr 25:33

Well, we haven't done anything like that, Keith, but what we do like to do, and Matthew mentioned this earlier, is as great tenants tend to refer other great residents, and so we have a referral bonus that we pay out to our residents that refer other folks to us, and that does not come out of the pocket of our investors, that comes out of our pocket, because it's our job to make sure that We rent these properties as quick as we can to qualified residents.

Keith Weinhold 26:04

One thing that I've liked about Memphis, which few markets have, is that it's embedded within renter culture in Memphis, since it is such a renter city, that renters travel with their appliances, like the refrigerator, in their stove, in their dishwasher, which always seems crazy to me, so you're not providing those appliances. It seems like that fact alone might help with resident retention in Memphis. They're just less likely to move when they have more stuff to move.

Matthew Vanhorn 26:35

Yeah, it's really true. Yeah. And the longer people stay, the longer they tend to stay as funny as that sounds. And yeah, that's something that we found even in our new construction homes where we do provide the appliances we've been finding in many instances, still the residents are coming with their own appliances. And so we're storing our appliance, our brand new appliances, in our warehouse.

Keith Weinhold 26:58

Wow, yes, that's just something that you don't see in other places. And when it comes to retention, we're interested in maintaining the property like you talked about being proactive with are there some other things you do to help ensure that the maintenance expenses stay lower throughout the lifetime of that investor ownership? How do you approach that?

Terry Kerr 27:16

It really starts with doing a full blown rehab, right? So every once in a while, you know, we'll have houses that, you know, have some age on the components. But when we do a rehab, everything is brand spanking new, like a new roof, gut, the kitchen, got the bathroom, you know, all new electrical, all new plumbing, all new HVAC, a new water heater the whole nine yards. So it starts there, and then when a property turns over, we go into the property, and we are looking for safe and clean, right? So we want to make sure to keep the water out. We want to make sure that everything is safe and the property is tip top and super clean. Fortunately, the folks that are maintaining the houses for our investors. The technicians are the same technicians that did the renovations on the property, right? And it's the same materials. Yeah, it's like, we have an assembly line and a junky house jumps on the assembly line, and we rip everything off, and all the same materials jump back on the house. So we're able to keep costs low because of that, and also because the labor that we end up having to pay the technicians typically is a lot less than normal, because they're used to working on the same water heater, the same HVAC system, you know, the same furnace, the same dishwasher. So our volume model kind of helps with that.

Keith Weinhold 28:39

Oh, if you were listening closely, yes, what a huge efficiency that can be. You fellas, have any last thoughts about efficient property management, since that's what you've led for more than 13 years, Matthew,

Matthew Vanhorn 28:51

I resonate with what you said about how many investors overlook vacancy costs when properties turn over. And so I think it's just getting your rents right on the money, maybe just a little below, can actually drive returns, as opposed to maybe trying to get an extra 25 bucks more, which takes you three weeks longer to rent. You actually did not come out ahead in that, in that scenario, Keith

Keith Weinhold 29:14

today, with inflation, a $25 difference, I mean, we're down to what 12 hours of vacancy is, really how we're talking about there Property Management turning a passive income into an active lifestyle since forever. That's what they do. Property managers are the people that have never met a maintenance issue that waited until business hours. So that's why I'm grateful that my managers do what they do for me. That's what we're talking about today. More when we come back with Terry Kerr and Matthew Van Horn of mid south homebuyers, I'm your host. Keith Weinhold

Keith Weinhold 29:45

if you're scrolling for quality real estate and finance info today, yeah, it can be a mess. You hit paywalls, pop ups, push alerts, Cookie banners. It's like the internet is playing defense against you. Not so fun. That's why. It matters to get clean, free content that actually adds no hype value to your life. This is the golden age of quality email newsletters, and I write every word of ours myself. It's got a dash of humor. It's direct, and it gets to the point because even the word abbreviation is too long, my letter takes less than three minutes to read, and it leaves you feeling sharp and in the know about real estate investing, this is paradigm shifting material, and when you start the letter, you'll also get my one hour fast real estate video course, completely free as well. It's called The Don't quit your Daydream letter. It wires your mind for wealth, and it couldn't be simpler to get visit gre letter.com while it's fresh in your head, take a moment to do it now at gre letter.com Visit gre letter.com

Keith Weinhold 30:56

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Tom Wheelwright 31:31

this is Rich Dad Advisor Tom wheelwright. Listen to get rich education with Keith Weinhold, and don't quit your Daydream.

Keith Weinhold 31:37

welcome back to get rich education. You've got the pleasure of listening to the voices of America's oldest turnkey real estate provider mid south homebuyers based in Memphis, Tennessee, and some years ago, they branched out to Little Rock, Arkansas as well, just about a two hour road trip west of Memphis. When us as investors buy a property, we've got to be cognizant of the fact that that property swims in an economic ocean, and therefore job vibrancy is, after all, how the tenant pays the rent. So tell us about economic developments in Memphis and Little Rock, because there are some exciting ones.

Matthew Vanhorn 32:24

So yeah, both in Memphis and in Little Rock, we've got the roads, we've got the rivers, we've got the rails, which drives both Memphis and Little Rock as distribution hubs here in the middle of America. And so of course, FedEx famously has their headquarters here in Memphis. Many of your listeners will know it's the largest cargo airport in America. We've had a resurgence of X. AI has actually come to Memphis and built the world's largest supercomputer here in Memphis, and they're actually working hard now on building a second called Colossus two, which is going to be even larger. They're saying it may hold as many as 1 million Nvidia chips, which I can't do that math, but that's a lot of money. And so x AI is has quickly become the second largest taxpayer here in Memphis and in Shelby County. And 25% of those tax proceeds, by the way are going, they're earmarked to go right into that local community beside where the plant is, and all the development is in Little Rock. You know, of course, it's Arkansas's largest city. It's the capital city, and so by nature of that, there are many stable state government jobs there that is a bulwark of the economic development there. There is a actually Fintech startup space is big in Little Rock as well. Lockheed Martin has been doing developments there, so a lot of aerospace development around Little Rock. Folks who look at our homes will also notice that we are in Jacksonville, which is a suburb of Little Rock that's anchored by the Air Force base there in Jacksonville. And there's actually a large munitions supplier there, Sig Sauer, which provides a lot of jobs to the locals there. And our number one, I may have mentioned it earlier, our number one employer in Central Arkansas is actually Baptist Health Medical Center. And just generally speaking, health care workers make up the largest portion of our residents in Central Arkansas. So a lot of great economic drivers that we're seeing bringing renters to Little Rock and and new jobs there. As a matter of fact, not just that, but I noted recently that the cost of living in Little Rock is now 10% below the national average. I think we had a report on our website a few years ago that it was 6% and that's actually. It's only becoming more favorable to live in Central Arkansas.

Keith Weinhold 35:04

You're talking about stable and growing drivers here, AI related businesses and healthcare. Let's talk about those rents and prices. Because really, this is one reason why national investors are so drawn to that area. It's that high affordability and that high ratio of rent income to purchase price. So what sort of rent and price ranges are we looking at in both markets now,

Matthew Vanhorn 35:29

it's not the same as it was when I started here in 2012 Reds have increased and so, you know, average rents around here start around 900 and now we're going up to about 1700 toward the high end there. And you know, the great news is that incomes have increased as well, and so our renters are able to afford this just as well as they were before. Or maybe even better, like I mentioned, cost of living in Arkansas has actually improved. And so what that means is people are actually making more money compared to the rent, even though rents have increased, which I believe is good news for investors, and it's been good news for us as a management company, as I think that contributes to the resident longevity there, once again,

Keith Weinhold 36:17

nowhere in the nation Do we hear enough about increased affordability stories, which is exactly what you have when your income rises faster than your rent, which is a harbinger of being able to increase the rent in the future. Tell us more about the rent in price ranges in both markets.

Matthew Vanhorn 36:35

In Memphis, if you get a two bed, one bath, you can often find that for as low as 808 850, something like that. As you step up into a three bed one bath, that's going to be somewhere between 1000 1200, depending on where you are in the city, there in Memphis, if you're in our new construction homes, those can range between 1395 all the way up to 1850 once again, depending on the size of the construction and the location out in Arkansas, rents tend to be just a little bit higher than in Memphis. So you see the rent starting there around 950 and going up to just under 2000

Keith Weinhold 37:19

and we're interested in that capital price, because a lot of times, investors think about their purchase through that perspective of the ratio of the rent income to the purchase price.

Matthew Vanhorn 37:30

As far as sales price goes, Keith, we started right around $100,000 on the low end, and those can range up to 240,000 thereabouts, on the high end, if you're talking about a new construction, three, two with a two car garage in an appreciating area. You can see that sort of range in Memphis, very similar, very similar. We have some of our smaller rehabs starting as low as 100,000 and going up to about that $215,000 range.

Keith Weinhold 38:04

Now, I would imagine, in the inflationary era that we're still in, that you get investors that call in there, and you do have these robust interactions with investors, where you talk with them on the phone like a human being, and people that say, come on. How can you get a respectable tenant in a single family rehab rental home that only costs $120,000 How do you handle questions like that?

Matthew Vanhorn 38:30

That's the whole job here is explaining that Sure, no where our renters are living. It's the best home that they've ever lived in, and it's it's in a affordable area. It's in an area where their friends live, where you just have workforce, just blue collar, but beautiful neighborhoods where they live. And I mean, they're proud to call these houses their home, and for many, it really is their dream home.

Keith Weinhold 38:55

People mold their lawns. The streets aren't littered with trash. I know where you guys invest. I've been on the streets there with you, checking them out. What percentage of investors finance the property, and how has that changed over time?

Terry Kerr 39:09

I'm going to say that it's probably about 75% finance, 25% cash. A lot of your listeners come with their own mortgage broker. The ones that don't, we have our tried and true mortgage brokers. Interest rates are not 4% anymore, and some folks are are wanting to pay cash, and they do, and some of them will pay cash, and then, you know, plan on refinancing later. But right now, that's probably about 25% cash, 75% finance.

Keith Weinhold 39:36

Yeah, it's interesting to see that direction, since rates did begin to get higher in 2022 you have this robust interaction with investors, but that doesn't only have to be over the phone. You guys are so proud of what you do that you've long offered investor tours. In fact, now you're doing more of those investor tours than you ever have. I believe you're doing 11. In tours per year in Memphis, and five in Little Rock as well.So tell us about that.

Terry Kerr 40:04

I guess it was maybe seven or eight years ago. We're so stoked that everybody wants to buy houses from us, and we've got, you know, a short wait list, and that's awesome, but we want folks to come visit us, and so, you know, we just started offering folks $500 off of the purchase of their first home, if they'll just come visit us. And so we know it's in our best interest to try to get to know our investors on a personal level, and the investors that do come to visit us, and we're able to pull back the curtain and show them, you know how operational efficiency benefits them as investors. I think they appreciate it, and then we do also just kind of like the nerd out on the nuts and bolts of the business. So it's fun to be able to pull that curtain back.

Keith Weinhold 40:48

Now, you don't have to be an investor to come on the tour, either prospective investors or regular investors that are already there can come on the tour. Is the Tour Free? Absolutely. So the tour is free, and you get a $500 credit if you end up purchasing there. Most investors never come physically see the property at all, but you sure can do that, and they make it really easy for you. Well, this is going to help a lot of people, especially when we think about how to manage the tenant and reduce our vacancy time in today's era. Before I ask how our listeners can learn more about you. Do you have any last thoughts at all about anything that we discussed management or properties or tenants or anything else? Maybe I did not think about asking you.

Matthew Vanhorn 41:32

I'll just go back to Keith talking about how well staffed we are here at Mid South. I think that's where we stand. Apart from a lot of our competitors is that we're not just two or three guys in an office here, we have over 100 employees. It takes speed to deliver good service. Service leads to satisfaction. Satisfaction leads to the residents staying. The resident staying leads to stacks of cash for you as investors, and the only way you can do that is if you're staffed up properly. And so that's something that you want to ask if you're ever vetting another property manager, is what does your staff look like? And really understand, can they actually provide the service to their residents and to their investors that they're reporting?

Keith Weinhold 42:17

You have helped more of our listeners than any other provider in the nation, certainly over 100 of them, perhaps hundreds by now. I'm not really sure if listeners want to get a hold of you, what's the best way for them to do that?

Terry Kerr 42:31

Invest at mid southhomebuyers.com

Keith Weinhold 42:34

that's a great starting place for you. And that way you can take a look at properties, get thinking about the market. Learn more about their management and get a hold of them. Terry and Matthew, it's been valuable as usual. Thanks so much for coming out of the show.

Matthew Vanhorn 42:49

Thank you, Keith.

Terry Kerr 42:49

Thank you, Keith.

Keith Weinhold 42:56

Oh yeah. Sharp insights from Terry and Matthew at mid south homebuyers today, waiving their application fee means more applicants, a bigger renter pool to choose from, which either shortens your vacancy time or it's going to get you a better quality tenant. Now, a lot of people, they think that real estate is unaffordable and even impossible, but few make it easier and more affordable than these people. And I think I shared with you before that, an 18 year old guy who I do know and have talked to in person, he bought his first ever rental property from mid south homebuyers. So it's kind of interesting. His goal was to own his first rental property when he was 18, and he closed just in time the day before his 19th birthday. I think he's age 20 now, but because fully renovated single family homes can be bought in a range of about 100 to 220k here, and you will put 20 to 25% of a down payment on that your monthly rent is about eight tenths of 1% of that purchase price. Okay, so that's renovated, and then new builds sell in a range of 200 to 260k rent to price ratios on those are a little lower. They're point seven five or so. Now we are here in an era where mortgage rates are in the low sixes for owner occupied that means you'll pay closer to 7% on income properties. But if you go new build, which is really something I've been suggesting to you for a while, if you can swing it, those rates are as low as five and a quarter percent for qualified buyers here, yes, at these low Memphis and Little Rock prices, they've got a few duplexes usually available as well, renting your residence. It's just something that's sort of in the culture there in Memphis, and that's why they're confident in offering a number of guarantees for investors. They just do things that. That other providers don't do in the rare event that your property is occupied and then it somehow falls vacant during your first year of ownership. Their releasing fee is free. They also have a guarantee that you will cash flow after you close. They have a one year bumper to bumper warranty on the renovations we're talking about from the doorknob to the ductwork, and there's a lifetime 90 day occupancy guarantee. What that means is, if your property were ever vacant for that long, they would start paying rent to you on day 91 but you know what's amazing? It's easy for them to offer that they'll tell you that they've never had to pay out on that, because they've never experienced the vacancy of more than 55 days. Just amazing. And all those guarantees I just told you about that is in writing on their website. So if you want to get a hold of them, there's virtually no one else in the nation that makes it easier and more affordable. I believe that's an email address that Terry gave there. Again, it is invest@midsouthhomebuyers.com their website is, as you might have guessed, midsouthhomebuyers.com that's midsouthhomebuyers.com interestingly, you can even look at their income properties. There some provider websites don't let you do that. And again, they offer free tours, and if you prefer, their phone number is 901-306-9009, this week, you learned some great techniques for reducing your vacancy and being more profitable, as well as a provider that can deliver it for you. Should you so choose? The proverb goes, give a man a fish and you feed him for a day. Teach a man to fish and you feed him for a lifetime. Well, you've got the option of doing either one or both today, until next week. I'm your host. Keith Weinhold, don't quit your Daydream.

Speaker 1 46:59

Keith Weinhold 47:27

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Category:general -- posted at: 4:00am EST

Mon, 13 October 2025

Keith discusses the rising cost of the American dream, now estimated at $5 million, due to inflation and housing prices.

He highlights the affordable housing crisis, with more Americans living in RVs and homelessness up 18% since last year.

The NAR's "Best Week" report highlights the benefits of buying during this time, including lower prices and more favorable terms.

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574: Parking Lots and Mobile Home Parks: Do They Have a Real Estate Future?

Complete episode transcript:

Keith Weinhold 0:01

welcome to GRE. I'm your host. Keith Weinhold, the American dream now costs $5 million learn just what that will mean for you. The beauty of 50 year mortgages, then after 11 years, I share the most depressing thing I've ever said on the show today on get rich education.

Keith Weinhold 0:26

You know, most people think they're playing it safe with their liquid money, but they're actually losing savings accounts and bonds don't keep up when true inflation eats six or 7% of your wealth. Every single year, I invest my liquidity with FFI freedom family investments in their flagship program. Why fixed 10 to 12% returns have been predictable and paid quarterly. There's real world security backed by needs based real estate like affordable housing, Senior Living and health care. Ask about the freedom flagship program when you speak to a freedom coach there, and that's just one part of their family of products, they've got workshops, webinars and seminars designed to educate you before you invest. Start with as little as 25k and finally, get your money working as hard as you do. Get started at Freedom family investments.com/gre or send a text now it's 1-937-795-8989, yep, text their freedom coach, directly. Again, 1-937-795-8989,

Corey Coates 1:39

you're listening to the show that has created more financial freedom than nearly any show in the world. This is get rich education.

Keith Weinhold 1:55

Welcome to GRE from Norwich, Connecticut to Norwich, North Dakota, and across 188 nations worldwide, you're listening to get rich education. I'm Keith Weinhold. You probably know me by now, but if you're new, I am an active member of the Forbes real estate Council. You can see my work in the USA Today. And of Paramount import, I am an active real estate investor. We're talking about America's top shaved mammal on a microphone here, but suffice it to say, this mammal has at least shaved just how can this slack jawed mammal persist in this environment? Well, I don't know, but I've been doing it here for more than 11 years now. More on that later. This is episode 575, and each episode's release is a bigger deal than releasing the Epstein files. Today is no exception, although today's show release will get fewer people in trouble than the release of the Epstein files. Speaking of people in trouble. It is the middle class. It's the average American and the average Canadian too, because it now costs $5 million to fuel the American dream. But yet, at the same time, hordes of people are now going the other direction, and they're getting poorer. The affordable housing crisis that we've talked about here seems to probably still have not reached its crescendo. Or perhaps, if you know music, it's the opposite a diminuendo. Things are getting to a low point. How bad is it? Getting well priced out of a permanent home. More and more Americans are living full time on RVs, not like nice, fancy RVs either. Beaters. 486,000 Americans are now estimated to live in RVs because they are out of options. And the more soul crushing part of this is that that number has more than doubled just since 2021 I've got two minutes of astonishing audio footage of this to share with you shortly about the RV living homelessness is up 18% Since last year, that figure is sourced by HUD. HUD has the best stat set on homelessness, and that's a problem that's increasingly visible in your own city, more likely than not. And you know, I have personally gotten into more than just surface level chats casually with food servers and baristas, just these quick chats with them. And you know what they divulge to me, that they're living in their car. Yeah, I'm not probing and asking about that sort of thing, but they just share that with me, yeah, food servers and baristas that I just met. They will often tell me that they're living in their car within five minutes of chatting with them, and when they do that, by the way, it also makes me wonder if they're trying to get me to feel bad for them, and they're freely telling me that just to get a tip from me. Well, today, mobile homes are even being coveted. I mean living in a trailer park that is affordable housing. We covered that on last week's show now the real estate company Redfin and Ipsos, they conducted a survey of more than 4000 US homeowners and renters, and they asked respondents about the struggle to afford housing. And it was astounding to learn that to string together a life where they have stable housing, how people are doing all these things, they're delaying having children, they're getting rid of their pets, and some are going through the discomfort of living with an ex spouse just to have affordable housing, as far as what is now almost half a million Americans living full time on RVs and growing since they can't afford a home. NBC covered this, and it is sad. Let's listen into just how squalid the living conditions are, quickly profiling two people as this reporter goes on their tiny RVs. I mean, as you listen to this, okay, keep reminding yourself, keep telling yourself this is America today. And as you'll see, this isn't even in a high cost part of the nation that we're about to profile here again, tell yourself this is America today. Well, this NBC field reporter gets shown the insides of two different RV units by two separate owners, each living by themselves, first a man and then a woman. This is about two minutes in length

Speaker 1 6:53

for Gus Francis. This is home a 20 year old camper he bought for $5,000 parked in an RV lot in Graysville, Tennessee, just north of Chattanooga. I got all my rosaries for protection everywhere. Books, books, books. now retired, he worked for decades as a commercial diver and hoped to live closer to his widowed mother, but when he sought a more conventional home, I just can't see how people with their normal job making 15 bucks an hour can afford an apartment without multiple roommates. Meals are made in the microwave, the stove unused for fear of a gas leak. Right next door is Debbie Williams. She sold her house in Kentucky to be closer to her grandchildren, but housing prices near Chattanooga increased by almost 50% since 2020 apartments are like about 1200 a month, but then you got your utilities to pay. This is permanent, plus it include is like 550 a month includes electric water, saving over everything. It includes everything. Debbie works nights, helping adults with disabilities, and says she likes her setup, even if the exercise bike doesn't fit inside. Okay? I like my shower. It's really nice. And then my bedroom, Debbie and Gus now among the nearly half a million people in the US living in RVs full time. I sometimes thought, Man, if I could have saved more money in the past. But what it was is, I don't blame myself, either, because I raised four kids with no child support, despite the tight quarters, plenty of room to build a community that matters. Ellison Barber, NBC News, Graysville, Tennessee

Keith Weinhold 8:46

gosh, cramped and modest conditions there again. Tell yourself this is America today, and see, here's the thing. From all outward signs, these two people profile. They're not substance abusers. They're not criminals that can't get a job. These are American workers that have been productive people throughout their lives. The first guy, Gus said he worked for decades as a commercial diver, and that part of Tennessee, it's not a place in the nation where the cost of living is exorbitant, either the crux of the problem here is not just the wave of inflation that started in 2021 the essence of it is the fact that inflation has outpaced wage growth. Will you ever get to having a $5 million net worth? Because that's what it takes to live the American dream today. Now, a while back, I told you how, if you amass $5 million really that's the number, that's the threshold where you could probably stop working and just invest such that you could live off it forever. But inflation. Changes that and it keeps upping that number. Well, since then, Investopedia recently came up with this $5 million price tag that's just for living the American dream in today's dollars. Let's look at what that really means, and then we'll add up the spending categories. This is really interesting. All right, the definition of the American dream. What that means is owning a home, raising two kids, retiring comfortably, and maybe throwing in an annual vacation or two. So a nice life, for sure, but nothing extravagant and okay, yes, there is this other angle of like, Money cannot buy the best things in life, and that's true. There's a lot to be said for that, but this is not a relationships in a dating show, okay? So that's why I'm covering the financial angle here, and later today, I'll tell you how much the typical American makes throughout their lifetime, which is much less than 5 million bucks. But to get to that exact $5 million total, which is the least that you now need in net worth, the estimated lifetime costs of eight milestones most often associated with a dream were added up by Investopedia. And now, of course, everyone's dream is different, and housing costs differ nationally. But, I mean, this is pretty reasonable. Here they are. This is how much it takes for each of them today. And I'm doing some rounding retirement, over $1.6 million that's what it takes now. Healthcare, 414k this is all spent over the course of your lifetime, a wedding 38k And I hope that is wedding singular, not weddings plural, owning a home, 957k raising two children and paying for college that costs. 876k and then owning a new car, that is another 900k Yeah, that sounds like a lot, but that will include costs of financing and insurance and depreciation on cars throughout your life, and then a yearly vacation is 180k throughout your life, and pets, 39k All Right. There it is. That is the $5 million total for the American dream. And again, that is only in today's dollars. Inflation will, of course, make all of these future costs run up. All right, housing is really the biggest part of the dream. I mean, second to retirement anyway, all right. Again, the lifetime cost of housing, like I said, is 957k just a year ago, it was 930k okay, well, the national median list price of a single family home is about 430k I guess that makes sense. Most people live in multiple homes throughout their lives. Well, the price per square foot is up 50% just since 2019 that is what is pricing people out. That is what is making people become your renter instead of a homeowner. Well, this $5 million required for the dream, that is why more people are homeless or more people are living in RVs. This means that the demand for the product that you're providing to the marketplace affordable housing, that demand is considerable, and that demand is durable, and the median lifetime earnings for one American with a bachelor's degree is only $2.8 million. All right, so that's just over half as much as it takes to live the dream. But here's what's appalling. Are you ready? Here we go. This could be the most depressing and concerning stat you've heard on this show, maybe one of the most depressing and concerning in your entire life when you really think this through. All right, now, what do you think of as sort of a model for someone that is stable? How about both married and a homeowner? I mean, yeah, they're two big markers, married and home ownership that is foundational stuff when your kids grow up to be adults, if they become married in a homeowner. I mean, come on, who would be disappointed with that? That would probably make you feel proud and fulfilled. I mean, the future of the nation that is children and stable household formation material, right there. Well, by age 30, how many people do you think are married in a homeowner today, and how has that changed over time? What do you think this is the percent of 30 year olds who are both married and homeowners in the US? Right back in 1950 it was 52%. today Okay, it is just a quarter of that. Only 13% of American 30 year olds are married homeowners today. Gosh, is that appalling? Or what? I mean, it doesn't exactly give you hope for the future, since Owning a home is a key pillar of the American dream, then the best thing that our local, state and federal lawmakers can do is to make it easier to build new housing. That is one of the most depressing stats I gave in 11 years of doing the show, probably the most depressing another thing we can do is not protest or block new development, no nimbyism.

Keith Weinhold 15:45

Now, earlier this year, the White House announced that they are considering declaring a national housing emergency. In fact, you saw me put a link to that in the section of our newsletter that we call the five, though we haven't seen a national housing emergency declared yet. If we do it all, the motivation behind it is largely to make housing affordable. One piece that's been floated out there is the introduction of a 50 year mortgage so that way mortgage payments are spread out and made lower than they are with the most popular mortgage in America today, by far, the 30 year fixed rate mortgage. Now, I wouldn't say that a 50 year mortgage is eminent and is about to happen. We can't say that, but it could be creeping closer. I mean, a 40 year mortgage that is already more of a thing. You've got 40 year HUD loans and 40 year DSCR loans both already here for residential property. We do know that buyers buy property more so based on a payment than they do the overall price of the property. Now look, I'll tell you if I could somehow magically snap my fingers and convert all of my 30 year mortgage loans over to 50 year loans. Oh, I sure would. It would lower my payment and increase my cash flow. Yes, my debt would hang around longer and well, we're right back to, you guessed it, financially free beats debt free. Let's run that comparison on a 300k loan at 6% interest, a 30 year mortgage payment, that is 1800 bucks a month, but on a 50 year loan that would be just 1580 Yeah, $1,800 versus 1580 1580 Well, that is going to boost your cash flow by $220 a month on that property, just by going from a 30 year to a 50 Year at the same interest rate. So maybe not as much of a difference as you thought, but probably worth doing, at least in the mortgage world debt free. I mean that concept of debt free that makes most people, in exchange for that debt free condition, grind and toil and work overtime and lose family time and eat dirt for decades because inflation and all these other forces work against them. And yes, this is just with mortgage debt that I'm talking about here. Of course, some debt is bad, like unsecured, high interest rate credit cards or doing a buy now, pay later, plan on a pizza that you split into four payments. That's ridiculous. And those are the type of debts you've also got to pay yourself. That's not what we're talking about here. In fact, it gets even worse for the mortgage debt free person. That extra $220 you're paying by having a 30 year loan instead of a 50 year loan, that would mean you're accumulating more dollars in home, which are illiquid. And again, 50 year loans don't exist yet, but understanding this concept and this trade off helps you be a better investor. Look, a debt free person can still be broke in the short term if they have a meager income, and they can be broke in the long term if they are not leveraging assets and debt. Being debt free, that is like bragging that you quit the gym so that you'll never pull a muscle again. I mean, you're safe for now, but you're going to be weaker in the long run. Let's use a different example. Let's just run a different set of numbers. Let's say you've got a 400k mortgage at three and a half percent interest, though your monthly payment is 1796 on a 30 year fixed. Some people think, Oh, if I just throw an extra $1,000 a month at this, I'm going to be debt free years sooner. And the truth is, yes, you will save 90k in interest, and you are. Going to own the house outright earlier. But what's the opportunity cost if that same 1k a month went into investments earning even 7% annually, after 15 years, it grows to about 311k

Keith Weinhold 20:16

Well, that is more than three times the interest savings, which again, was only 90k so for some paying off the mortgage early feels like some sort of emotional win, but it is rarely the best financial win. I mean, that is like benching LeBron to save money on Gatorade. I mean, that is a bunch of nonsense. So debt free is the floor. Financially Free is the ceiling. I mean, do you know about those popular call in shows where people are advised to lower their standards, diminish their quality of life, not go on vacations in order to get debt free? Oh, dear. I mean, those shows have got to be screening their callers closely to ensure that no one savvy actually gets on the air. Somebody, hey, how about you? Why don't you get on the air? Get on that show. Ask them some tough questions about getting mortgage debt free. You tell them yeah. Tell them that your ROI on all that equity is zero because home values change regardless of equity positions. Tell them that a home is never paid off because you'll still owe property tax and maintenance and repairs and utilities and maybe insurance and an HOA. Tell them you lost the gift of inflation eating your debt while you sleep. Tell them mortgage interest is often tax deductible. Tell them that their leverage is gone, and all these facts, every one of those I just stated, they're now figuratively not just talking. They're yelling. They're screaming now, because markets of all types are at all time highs. So instead, if you had used those funds to pay off a property, they would have really missed out on earning big returns for years elsewhere, a steep opportunity cost. Suffice it to say, I would love to see the widespread adoption of 50 year mortgages, and I would use them. The other thing that would happen is that it would make home prices rise further, because more people can afford the lower payments to bid up the price. So actually, here's something that I'm wondering about with you. Did you ever have a paid off property, and then realize all of this, and then go and get new financing on it again. Have you ever done that? If you have that would be really interesting. Let us know if you've had a property in a paid off position, realized the vulnerability and the opportunity cost of having all that illiquid equity, and then you went and put debt back on it. Let us know at get rich education.com/contact. That's get rich education.com/contact. Like Ridge lending group knows this when I have chili ridge here, like she and I discussed, you even get the cash chunk out tax free. And here's what else is interesting about this. Just say you know how out in the world of real estate agents, where people are buying and selling property, well, whenever a buyer's agent knows that that listed property is owned by a seller that still has a mortgage on it, well the assumption is that the seller, well, they might be a little more motivated to sell since they have to make mortgage payments on that property that they might not even be occupying anymore. Well, that is backwards. In most cases, you should be more motivated to want to sell a property if it's paid off because you've got all that dead equity in it that needs to be released through that sale. So really, a listing agent should be thinking, this seller has got to sell this property with urgency, if for no other reason, because he or she has lots of equity in that property. That's how to think about it. The world has it 100% backwards. That mindset is 180 degrees from the truth coming up next.

Keith Weinhold 24:25

Did you know that this week? Yes, right here in mid October every year is historically the best week of the year to buy a home. Also, what's it like behind the scenes here on the microphone? I've got that and more straight ahead. I'm Keith Weinhold. You're listening to get rich education,

Keith Weinhold 24:44

if you're scrolling for quality real estate and finance info today, yeah, it can be a mess. You hit paywalls, pop ups, push alerts, Cookie banners. It's like the internet is playing defense against you. Not so fun. That's why it matters to get clean. Mean free content that actually adds no hype value to your life. This is the golden age of quality email newsletters, and I write every word of ours myself. It's got a dash of humor, it's direct, and it gets to the point because even the word abbreviation is too long, my letter takes less than three minutes to read, and it leaves you feeling sharp and in the know about real estate investing, this is paradigm shifting material, and when you start the letter, you'll also get my one hour fast real estate video, course, completely free as well. It's called the Don't quit your Daydream letter. It wires your mind for wealth, and it couldn't be simpler to get visit gre letter.com while it's fresh in your head, take a moment to do it now at gre letter.com Visit gre letter.com

Keith Weinhold 25:55

the same place where I get my own mortgage loans is where you can get yours Ridge lending group NMLS, 42056, they provided our listeners with more loans than anyone because they specialize in income properties. They help you build a long term plan for growing your real estate empire with leverage. Start your pre qual and even chat with President Caeli Ridge personally, while it's on your mind, start at Ridge lending group.com. That's Ridge lending group.com. Hi.

Russell Gray 26:29

This is Russell Gray, co host of the real estate guys radio show, and you're listening to get rich education with Keith Weinhold. Don't quit your Daydream.

Keith Weinhold 26:36

welcome back to get rich Education. I'm your host. Keith Weinhold, there's a lot to look forward to in future months here on the show, new content from me, new prominent guests, the return of some favorite guests, a live event to tell you about and our annual home price forecast show, where I'll also reveal if last year's GRE home price prediction for this year came true or not. I have got to say I have nailed it to the exact percent a few years in a row now. But if you remember, before this year began, I forecast 5% national home price appreciation for this year. We will see how that turns out, but home prices are only up one or 2% year over year so far. Yes, not only do I make the forecast, I actually follow up with the previous years to check the accuracy. Don't you wish everyone did that? Well, it is October, and it's the month where you got to be ready to defend your love of candy corn and the same Americans complaining about inflation also bought a 40 foot skeleton for the front yard. Well, the best time to buy a home, historically, is this week this year. It happens to fall on October, 12 to 18th, as it turns out. Why would that be? It sounds kind of random, doesn't it? Well, the NAR recently reported on this, and this is what they give, a three word moniker, aptly named the best week. That's what they call it, the best week. Now, this applies more to primary residences into one to four unit investment property, but it's a little applicable to apartment buildings too, and this really helps you understand real estate buying, selling and consumer nature. Historically, this week offers the most favorable balance of market conditions for buyers. This is when inventory tends to be elevated. Prices typically dip below their seasonal peak. The buyer competition slows, and just the overall pace of the market becomes more manageable. Again, quote, unquote, the best week this seasonal shift every year, it's influenced by school schedules and even weather patterns. Housing activity typically ramps up in the spring. It peaks in the summer because a lot of families try to move while children are out of school and the desire to settle before the new academic year that's back when you've got the warmer weather and the longer daylight hours, and you got these curb appeal enhancements from Lush summer foliage that also makes spring and summer an ideal time for showings in inspections, that adds further momentum to the summer surge. These sort of things actually matter. But then the calendar shifts into fall, and demand naturally tapers off. Every year you got families with school age children that exit the market, and then the remaining inventory begins to linger longer, and prices respond by dipping below peak levels. And homes tend to stay on the market longer. This happens every year. That makes for conditions that benefit late season buyers. So listings tend to become more plentiful now each October inventory levels, they tend to peak in early fall, and that's why it's about the best time to buy. You have less competition from other buyers, home buyer shopping during again, what is called the best week, you should expect less competition. Properties tend to attract the most viewership per listing early in the spring, and that's when buyers trickle into the market before the inventory picks up. And then the summer ushers in both more homes and more shoppers, and that means that buyers face quite a bit of competition in the summer, so the best week that should offer more time for buyers to deliberate, and it can mean that sellers are more eager to compromise. And the numbers back that up historically that this is the peak week for price reductions. So what can you do if you're potentially in the market? You might want to hit up gre investmentcoach.com and have our coaches connect you with the right income property if that's the right move for you, and doing that is totally free. In fact, most listeners buy their first income property that way. In fact, if you had a good experience with a GRE investment coach, go ahead and tell a friend about it. Now, let's say that you had $1 back in the year 1995 so you've got a green dollar bill in your pocket 30 years ago. All right. Well, what would happen to your dollar if you saved it versus putting it in stocks versus putting it in real estate? What do you think would happen in each of those three scenarios? Let's do it. Let's compare well, because of inflation, your dollar would be worth less than 50 cents if you had saved it, yeah, it would have just 47 cents worth of purchasing power today. Instead, if you had put it in the s, p5, 100, your dollar would have seen some pretty significant growth. It would be worth $19 today. That's how stocks have performed over the past 30 years. But what about real estate? Well, there are so many ways to do it specifically. What if it were a rental property where real estate pays five ways, not just one or two like stock. What kind of return can you expect from real estate? Well, when you add up all five ways, just using historic norms like classic rates of appreciation and a four to one leverage ratio, you get 38% as a total rate of return in year one. And then that rate starts to fall because equity accumulates. And if you're not initiated on that, and it sounds like such a high flying number, you can see my free video course that teaches you this at get rich education.com/course, the most valuable free course you've ever taken in your life. At get rich education.com/course, let's just get conservative and say so many things go wrong with your property that we're going to round that 38% all the way down to 20% per year. Yes, if you're new here, those sound like ridiculous rates of return. Anyone that's listened here for a while instead has been enjoying those rates of return if you bought right? I mean, you have so much more time and money in your life now, but at 20% ROI, your $1 from 1995 would be worth $237 today. Wow, and again, if it were saved under a mattress, it would be worth less than 50 cents, and in the sp5 100, just 19 bucks. This is a simplified way to demonstrate that compound leverage beats compound interest. I mean real estate beats stocks by more than 12x right there and see that's the type of multiplier that you're probably going to need on your money. Since it already takes $5 million to live the American dream, you might very well need $25 million over the next few decades, while the 401 K was created around 1980 the Roth IRA created in 1998 and the GRE podcast was created on October 10, 2014, and I trust that it's had a more positive impact on your life than any of those other vehicles.

Keith Weinhold 34:56

This means that I've released weekly episodes here for. 11 years, never missing a week at all, 52 weeks a year, and we've never replayed an old show either. I am here for you. Integrity means doing what you say you're going to do. Vedran, our sound engineer, has been here with GRE for 11 years as well. That is the team, the duo, that's been bringing you this show. And also, I didn't even tell my team here at GRE this yet, so I guess they'll learn now, the platform business rate just ranked us and awarded get rich education the best of the year, 2025 as a real estate school. Yes, we learned that this award is based on outstanding reviews from real customers, not nominations or votes, but the best of the year award comes from feedback through listeners just like you. Thank you for that, and thanks business rate this show and real estate investing, they are the main things that I do, and I expect to be here for you well into the future. Now, it's sort of funny here, kind of a paradox on the show I talk about income production that's largely passive, yet producing this show at a high level for 11 years here on this side of the microphone is not passive. It is highly active. I got a reminder of this recently when a doctor buddy of mine said he considers starting a podcast on the side. Let me tell you what I shared with him that is probably a terrible idea to launch an ongoing podcast where you'll constantly carve out the time to produce high quality week after week. That is not a side gig. 99% of those scenarios fail. You've got to deliver great new content yourself. You've got to have a network of guests to compliment you. You got to perform research and then cross check your research, because you've got to publish real, true information. You need a reliable editing solution. You need some organizational skills. You're going to need to hire some skilled and specialized assistance in the real estate world. You've actually got to get out into the field and visit cities in person to corroborate your research on the ground and go to in person conferences. I mean, there's a lot to do, but I did tell my doctor friend, you know, the good news is that there are alternatives to starting a show. There are a couple of them. In fact, first, you can do a 10 episode mini series on your area of expertise, host it on YouTube or Spotify and then send that link to clients. Another thing you can do is get yourself booked as a guest on someone else's show, and you'll pay a podcast booking agent to do that one strong guest episode that could do more than 100 of your own episodes ever could. So that's my guidance. In case you know any thought leaders that considered doing that, and what things look like from my view back behind the mic, it is not passive income, although my investing mostly is and another thing, if I've hosted a past guest on the show, and I get feedback from you or other listeners that they're not looking out for your best interest, or they don't want to do the property rehabs that they promised. Well, they are not coming back onto the show. Instead, we move on. I am here to do good and connect you only with providers that are doing good. Another show related announcement, and if you listen here each week through the get rich education mobile app. This is really important if you're listening to me right now on our dedicated mobile app, the hosting platform terminates at the end of this month, so you're going to have to listen in a different way. Go to either the apple podcasts app or the Spotify app and search get rich education to keep listening that way, you'll keep learning, stay motivated and never miss an episode of my incomprehensibly slack jawed vocals, profligate and unrepentant. Again, if you're listening to me right now on our dedicated GRE mobile app, the hosting platform terminates at the end of this month, you'll have to listen in a different way. Go to either the apple podcasts app or the Spotify app and search. Get rich education inside those apps in order to keep listening after this month, until next week, I'm your host. Keith Weinhold, don't quit your daydream

Speaker 2 39:41

Keith Weinhold 40:09

The preceding program was brought to you by your home for wealth. Building, get richeducation.com.

Direct download: GREepisode575_.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 4:00am EST

Mon, 6 October 2025

Are You Missing Out on Real Estate's Best-Kept Secrets?

Imagine investing in properties where:

-Tenants fix their own roofs

-You can boost income with a few tech upgrades

-Most investors are too scared to even look

This episode reveals two underground real estate niches that could change your wealth strategy forever:

Mobile Home Parks and Parking Lots

Special Guest: Kevin Bupp, an investor with over $1 BILLION in real estate transactions under his belt shares how everyday investors are building wealth in places others overlook.

Resources:

Grab your FREE real estate investment white papers and unlock hidden wealth strategies at InvestwithSunrise.com

Show Notes:

GetRichEducation.com/574

For access to properties or free help with a

GRE Investment Coach, start here:

GRE Free Investment Coaching: GREinvestmentcoach.com

Get mortgage loans for investment property:

RidgeLendingGroup.com or call 855-74-RIDGE

or e-mail: info@RidgeLendingGroup.com

Invest with Freedom Family Investments.

For predictable 10-12% quarterly returns, visit FreedomFamilyInvestments.com/GRE or text 1-937-795-8989 to speak with a freedom coach

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573: The War on the Young and the Vanishing Middle Class

Complete episode transcript:

Keith Weinhold 0:00

Welcome to GRE. I'm your host. Keith Weinhold, talking about first mobile home park investing and then investing in parking lot assets. What makes them profitable? What gets investors excited about mobile home parks and parking lots? What are the risks and what's the future of both of these real estate asset classes? All with a terrific guest today on get rich education.

Keith Weinhold 0:28

You know, most people think they're playing it safe with their liquid money, but they're actually losing savings accounts and bonds don't keep up when true inflation eats six or 7% of your wealth. Every single year, I invest my liquidity with FFI freedom family investments in their flagship program. Why fixed 10 to 12% returns have been predictable and paid quarterly. There's real world security backed by needs based real estate like affordable housing, Senior Living and health care. Ask about the freedom flagship program when you speak to a freedom coach there, and that's just one part of their family of products, they've got workshops, webinars and seminars designed to educate you before you invest. Start with as little as 25k and finally, get your money working as hard as you do. Get started at Freedom family investments.com/gre or send a text now it's 1-937-795-8989, yep, text their freedom. Coach, directly. Again, 1-937-795-8989,

Corey Coates 1:40

you're listening to the show that has created more financial freedom than nearly any show in the world.This is get rich education.

Keith Weinhold 1:56

Welcome to GRE from Burlington, Vermont to Burlington, Washington and across 188 nations worldwide. I'm Keith Weinhold, and you are inside get rich education. We are all firmly in the fall season. Now, autumn, if you prefer. And as we often do, we're discussing residential real estate investing today, but it's two different and distinct niches within that, and I guess they both have to do with wheels, as it turns out, mobile home parks in the first part of the show and then parking assets later today. I think there's a compelling future use case for at least one of those two to speak to our international audience for a moment, but this will actually help clarify things for you. If you're a North American too, though it's called a mobile home, well, it doesn't really have that much to do with wheels. There might not be any wheels on it. And if a resident lives inside one of these for, say, a decade, well then it's probably going to remain attached to that same location on the ground all 10 years. That's why a mobile home is often referred to now as a manufactured home. What it is is it's a factory built residence, constructed on a permanent chassis and then transported to a site. I mean, that's what we're talking about here, and they are a less expensive alternative to traditional homes that have, say, a cast in place, concrete foundation. So therefore, understand, mobile homes are affordable housing, highly affordable housing, and that's really important in this housing affordability crisis. And I've talked quite a bit about that on the show, and the meager national supply of that all types of affordable housing, they are recession resilient. I mean, that's just one reason why we love affordable housing types here at GRE where we're often buying rental property just below an area's median price. You know, people think of mobile home parks MHPS, that they're all crime ridden and that there are slumlords. But that is not true in every case. There are actually nice ones. If you're an MHP investor, you often only own the land beneath the structure, and not the mobile home itself. The resident owns the mobile home itself. So therefore, if there's a leaky roof or a window needs replacement, or flooring needs replacement, that is on the resident to fix, not you. MHP dwellers, they often don't have to pay property tax, though, because, like I said, they don't own the land. The landlord, or the community, therefore, is the one that has to pay the property tax. So there's some thoughts on mobile home parks for you, parking asset, real estate that's still settling into its post pandemic pattern with Return to Office mandates that aren't really fully matured yet. We're still settling in and seeing how that is going to look. And then when it comes to parking lots, you got to wonder about its future. When you consider the proliferation of autonomous cars, will that make parking lots obsolete? I'll have our guest address that longtime GRE listeners, you might remember episode 13 of this show, yeah, almost 11 years ago, that episode was about how autonomous cars will affect your future and your real estate and the very need for parking lots and a lot of what I discussed there in early 2015 that is beginning to come true, but this autonomous car adoption that is way slower than a lot of people thought. I mean, most Americans, they still have not been inside an autonomous car at all. A lot of people are still saying that they don't trust that that should change soon. But as for now, I'm just guessing that fewer than one in 10 Americans have been inside an autonomous car, probably quite a bit less than that. Today's terrific guest has over $1 billion in real estate transactions under his belt. This should be interesting. He is a specific investor in both mobile home parks and parking assets.

Keith Weinhold 6:26

Today's guest is a seasoned real estate investor entrepreneur, and he's a prominent voice in the space, because he hosts the real estate investing for cash flow show. He's built a strong reputation as an expert in two niches that have less competition than some other investments, and we'll discuss those two today. They are mobile home parks and also parking asset investments too often overlooked yet pretty profitable niches, and he and I have a lot in common. I'm on the Forbes real estate Council. He is on the Forbes Technology Council. He and I are both native Pennsylvanians. It's been quite a few years. Hey, welcome back to GRE it's Kevin Bupp.

Kevin Bupp 7:06

Hey, Keith, thanks for having me back. And yeah, excited to be here, my friend, and excited to finally get caught up. When you referenced that, it was nearly eight years since we last spoke. I was taken back a little bit because A lot's happened in past eight years.

Keith Weinhold 7:21

I know that's wild with where things are at. People didn't even know the meaning of the word pandemic when you were last here on the show, Kevin, let's talk about really the case for mobile home parks. I know they can be a strong, cash flowing asset once people are really dialed into them. I think what's interesting is, since you were last here on the show, really, from the pandemic on, it's been a well documented national story where lay people just know about how the supply of housing just is not adequate in order to meet demand, and what that usually means, just talking about the single family space is, of course, they're building, but they're not building fast enough to keep up with population growth and housing demand. But what's so compelling about mobile home parks is, I mean, they're barely even building them anymore, like they are contracting in supply in a lot of areas. So tell us more about the compelling case for mobile home parks.

Kevin Bupp 8:16

Yeah, well, you had a big one. You know? It's an asset class that has a diminishing supply, right? We can get into the reasons behind that. But, you know, just from a high level perspective, one of the other factors as it relates to, you know, available homes, available housing for the growing population, is that while they are building stick boat homes, they're not fulfilling the needs of those that actually need affordable housing. So there's not a lot of the average working household can't necessarily afford the starter home any longer, and so mobile home parks are unique. I truly feel they're the best vehicle to help us fill this void of housing, affordable housing that is really needed throughout the entirety of the country. I mean, there's very few markets in this country that are still affordable. There's some places you can still go buy. You can probably go to Flint, Michigan, buy a home for 50 or $60,000 but generally speaking, I think the median home price today, I think it's crested over 400,000 I don't have the exact number, but I do believe over $400,000 and the average starter family, or even folks that are, you know, just working two jobs, making 40, $50,000 a year, they can't afford to purchase that type of home, a $400,000 home. And so again, these mobile homes you had mentioned, they're not building mobile home parks any longer. However, they're still building new mobile homes, and it's kind of interesting what's evolved over the past 10 years. The quality of the product is it's like a night and day difference of what it looked like 1015, years ago, of the homes themselves to what they look like today, and what you get for your money. You know, the average single wide that we might be putting into a community, brand new home, 13, 1400 square feet. Someone could come in and for roughly $80.70 $80 a foot, can buy a brand new home that's never been lived in before, that's unheard of, that's absolutely unheard of when you compare it to the average or the median home price across the US today. So it really is kind of the last frontier, and it's typically any market that we're in, if you take the same comparable quality of an apartment complex in the same, you know, area of town, the same school districts, we're typically about 20% less all in cost to actually own your own home, versus that of even renting the comparable size apartment. So it's a very compelling reason for folks that are looking for an affordable place, but not just affordable, but clean, safe and quiet. I mean, like we run very respectable communities, they're in the really good school districts. They're places that folks are proud to live and raise their families, then,

Keith Weinhold 10:22

yeah, that's true. This would really help meet that affordability challenge, another problem that's been so well documented. Talk to us more about what makes mobile home park investing different from investing in single family rentals or even a fourplex or a 20 unit apartment building.

Kevin Bupp 10:40

A lot of the fundamentals are similar, and I would say that it's probably more comparable to that of an apartment complex to a certain degree. Just think of it as a horizontal apartment complex, where units aren't stacked on top one another. They're just layout horizontally more wider than they are tall. But the bigger difference is in most instances, we don't actually own the homes, so the residents own the mobile homes, whereas we as community owners own the infrastructure, we own the land. We own the roads, when the sewer lines, the water lines, the common areas, if it has a clubhouse, if it has amenities, so we maintain and we own all that collective area where the folks basically come and they bring their home, they fix it to the ground, and then ultimately pay a slot rent to have their home there on that premise. And so for us, it's very attractive in that the resident that's in their home, if they have a Roofing Leak, they have a plumbing leak, they have their HVAC system go out. They're not calling us like they enter an apartment complex. It's on them, yeah. So they're homeowners. And a couple other really attractive elements of that that come as a result of having residents that live there, not just renters, is that they're very sticky. And so just like in a standard single family subdivision, where you've got folks that might have lived there for generations, you just reference that your parents literally live in the same house, and so they've lived there a very long time. It is quite common to find residents and even multi generations of the same family that live in our communities. And a couple come to mind. We just celebrated a woman's 50th year of living one of our communities in brendalin. And so you've got sticky resident base. There's not a lot of turnover. And then the last big piece of it that is really attractive us is a homeowner mentality is very different than a rental mentality as far as upkeep. And so you got folks that they plant flowers, they ensure that their units have curb appeal, right? They put flags out, they put decorations out during the holidays. It's a lot more warmth than that of what you might find in a traditional rental apartment complex.

Keith Weinhold 12:26

So what all does the tenant pay for? You mentioned that they pay for the lot rent. What other expenses do they have? How does that look for them?

Kevin Bupp 12:36

Typically, you know, utilities. So they'll have their own individual meter. They'll pay, you know, direct to the utility company, utility provider, water and sewer as well. They'll pay for their water and sewer usage. And that can come in many different forms. Sometimes, where our communities have public utilities, where it's built directly by the utility provider, sometimes it's more of a private system, where we're actually acting and participating as utility provider and building them back for their usage. Really the standard things that you might pay for if you live in a single family home. I think so the areas where it might differ. And honestly, this is really community by community for us, some of our communities, literally, the residents, they pay for the utility use, but outside of that, literally, we mow the grass, we shovel their driveway, we shovel their walkways, we handle all those type of elements, whereas some other communities, the residents we might require that they actually maintain their own grass so they their own grass, so they have to mow it, or hire a a third party vendor to come in and mow it. They might have to actually shovel their own driveway. And a lot of how we run a community really is depend on how it used to be run when we took it over. You know, if it's not broke, we don't fix it. And so a lot of times we don't like shaking things up too much. If they're used to a certain way, we just keep it status quo and continue rolling on of how the prior ownership used to manage it really similar elements of what a folks, an individual living in a single family home, might pay for so very similar.

Keith Weinhold 13:48

Okay, so they pay you the rent for the lot. This puts nearly all the maintenance and repair burden on them. So is there any sort of HOA like body here?

Kevin Bupp 13:58

Not in our community. You do find some communities, and most of these that have an HOA are typically a community that's gone through more of a co op type arrangement to where the actual individuals only like fractionalized share of the community, the residents that live there, and so then they have a the oversight from an HOA that's managing the daily operations, managing the financing, managing the budget, things like that. But in our communities, no, there is not an HOA, I'd say the one other thing that's typically included in lot rent is they don't have property taxes, right? So we own the land, and so the individuals that live in these units aren't paying individual property taxes. A lot of states require that they have a registration fee, just like you do in your vehicle, that they would have to pay on an annual basis. And then most of them have insurance as well. You know they're covering you're carrying homeowners insurance on the actual dwelling itself. Outside of that, it's, again, just pretty straightforward,

Keith Weinhold 14:47

yeah. So here we are in this low competition, low supply niche that we're talking about here we think about communities and nimbyism and building, not in my backyard. ISM oftentimes that's a sentiment that residents of a certain area have, residents say something like, ah, we don't want this new 200 unit apartment building or mobile home park here in our single family home neighborhood, like, that's nimbyism. But in mobile home parks, to me, it seemed like nimbyism is often at a different level. It's at the government or the municipal level, like your town or city, might not want one, because it doesn't generate as much property tax revenue as a new single family neighborhood would. Is that the reality? Kevin,

Kevin Bupp 15:31

that's absolutely the reality. And that's why you don't see new parks getting built. I think last year, ones that I know of, there are about a dozen that were built, many more than that. They're actually shut down, you know, for redevelopment purposes. And so that is absolutely huge part of it. In fact, you know, it's frustrating, because pretty much every municipality across the country the topic of affordable housing, it's on the radar, and it's probably one that is discussed quite often. And in all reality, again, these mobile home parks really would help resolve that challenge at most of these you know, municipalities are the shortage of homes, affordable homes, that they're facing across the country. And so, you know, another big piece of it, you mentioned the tax basis, absolutely, you know, the municipality would make, they'd have much better tax revenue from pretty much anything else that could be built there. And so that's a big barrier. But the nimbyism piece of it, I think a big part of that is it's unfortunate. I think it's getting better over time. There's bad operators in our space, just like they're bad operators in the apartment space, just like there's bad operators landlords that have single family homes that just let them deteriorate over time and don't repair things. Unfortunately, we kind of get lumped all the mobile home parks get lumped in that bad bucket. And so while there's, you know, I always joke and say there's mobile home parks that are on the wrong side of town, wrong side of the tracks, right? You don't want to go to and during the daytime. Well, guess what? There's subdivision, the single family home, neighborhoods that are the same thing, and there's apartments that are like that as well. You don't go anywhere near them. And you've got the middle of the road, right? You've got just the good, hard working, blue collar folks that want to send their kids to good public schools. We've got those communities apartments are that way too single family home subdivision, you got white collar stuff. You got some higher end stuff. Unfortunately, we kind of all get lumped in that bad bucket. That's where the assumption that's made by folks that don't understand mobile home communities have never driven through one. They just assume that it's all, you know, basically, drug, sex, rock and roll, the wrong element that we do not want in our neighborhood. We don't want anywhere near us. It's going to devalue our home prices. And for that reason, you just don't see them getting built. It's unfortunate, but it's the truth.

Keith Weinhold 17:20

Yeah, I'm just thinking about the mobile home park that I drive past most often. It's sort of walled off. There's maybe an eight or 10 foot high wall around it. I don't know if that's something that the municipality erected to sort of screen its appearance off, or something that the mobile home park built, which is my guess as to who built it, but not all mobile home parks look blighted

Kevin Bupp 17:43

absolutely, yeah. And I don't know the case that you just referenced there. I mean, it could be for sound deadening purposes, if it's off of a busy road. It could have been something put up as far as just to kind of shield off so folks that are driving past don't see the community. My guess would be that's probably not the the reason that was built. But in any event, these are, there's, you know, we've got a number of communities, Keith, that if you drove through, and I didn't, if I blindfolded you and you drove in, so you went past the entrance, you went past a sign that said manufactured home community, and I took you down a road, you wouldn't believe that you were actually in a mobile home park. Some of these homes, they're double wide homes, and they look like ranch homes, and so they're actually laid out perpendicular to this, or parallel to the street, and then they have two car site built garages that are attached to them via breezeway. So they look like your traditional ranch style home, but they're absolutely 100% mobile homes that could be moved if you wanted to move them, and for a fraction of the price of what a neighboring single family home might sell for. So there's all different qualities. They all come in different shapes and sizes. But to my point earlier, some of these communities, they're not even affordable. There's actually, there's down here in Florida, we've got what we call lifestyle communities. It's very common out in Arizona as well, where it's a lot of times a second home for snowbirds, you know, retirees that want to come down and want to live an active lifestyle. You know, they want to have two swimming pools. They want to have an activities director. They want to have, you know, shuffleboard and pickleball courts and tennis courts, and they want to live this lifestyle. And those units are anything but affordable. In fact, there's many. There's a community down the road for me that, you know, their lot rent is $1,200 a month, and so you factor that in with probably a house payment. And you know, you might be looking at 2000 to, you know, $2,300 a month, all in for the house and the lot rent. And so not necessarily in the affordable scheme of things, but they come in all shapes and sizes and again, unfortunately, we just get lumped into that bad bucket. It's unfortunate because I do think that we could really help start making a dent in this affordable housing crisis. I don't how it's going to happen any other way. I really don't, because we can't build affordable products at this point in time. It's not possible

Keith Weinhold 19:37

a posh an exclusive mobile home park there that you're referencing in Florida. As paradoxical as that sounds, tell us, Kevin, how that really works, because I know you help investors get in to mobile home parks. Does this mean an investor owns a full Park? Or I wouldn't imagine you're just doing it at the level where you just own one lot and then have One dweller pay you the lot rent. So tell us about how it works from the investor angle.

Kevin Bupp 20:05

We have fund structures that we typically roll out through sunrise capital investors and any one individual fund will own somewhere between nine to 13 somewhere, typically in that range, mobile home communities. These communities can range in size from maybe as small as 80 or 90 lots to the largest community we own at present time is 780 lots. And so it's quite large. I mean, the size of a small town. But essentially, investors come in and they own a based on their investment. They own a proportionate share of the various properties that are owned underneath that fund umbrella. And so one, an individual, might come with 100,000 and own a smaller proportion share than someone that comes in with a million dollars. But they are owners. They're absolute owners. They participate in the cash flow, they participate in the the upside, and they participate in the proceeds. When we have capital events, either cash out refinances or potential sale events.

Keith Weinhold 20:56

Tell us more about why it's so profitable. Why do mobile home park investors get excited,

Kevin Bupp 21:01

as with anything, Keith, you know, you got to buy it, right? And, you know, we look at a lot of deals, and a lot of deals don't pencil like, if we bought it for what they're asking, we would make money. We might lose money. And so the money's made on the buy, just like with any other type of real estate investment. But I think the one factor that really has allowed mobile home parks to be an attractive investment vehicle over the past, really, the last decade, it's grown the attention of lots of different private equity groups, institutional investors, that 15 years ago, they weren't in the space, and the biggest reason is a lot of these. It's a very fragmented niche, and so there was no consolidation that existed 10 years ago. There was really only two public traded companies outside that. It was mom and pops, mom and pops, that typically owned one, maybe sometimes two or three communities, but it was just a very fragmented niche. And what you find those fragmented niches that there's a lot of inefficiencies that exist in the operations. There's a lot of inefficiencies that exist with regards to utility management or managerial oversight within the community, or even keeping up with market rents. And so very often, we'll get into a community we just bought one at the end of last year, and right outside of Ann Arbor, you know, great sub market in Michigan. It's it literally has never traded hands. It was built back in the 80s by the gentleman we purchased it from. He was a subdivision developer, but he got into the manufactured housing space, so he built this, what looked like a subdivision, but it was mobile homes and and he basically owned it up until we acquired it last year, but gorgeous community, well maintained, needed some upgrades, different amenities that just were a little worn out and tired. But the biggest element within that community was that the market rents in the local area were roughly $800 a month. $800 a month for lot rent, and when we purchased it from him, the average lot rent throughout the community was $477 so there was a significant loss lease that exists. And we see this quite often with just over time they've owned it, free and clear, they go 567, years out, doing rent increases, and sooner or later, they find themselves in a situation where they are severely below the local market rents. And so there's typically a lot of loss, at least recapture, that we find going into these communities. Sometimes we'll also go in and we'll find there's a lot of waste with the water and sewer cost. It might not be billed back for usage to the residents, to where if you're not paying for something, sometimes you're abusing it. And a lot of times we can go in and put individual meters in and almost send entirely that savings down to the bottom line and find it as additional noi on our PNL. And so it's just inefficiency of operations, and again, quite common, given the mom and pop nature of this asset class. But it's very quickly becoming consolidated. Now it looks very different today than what it looked like as far as the ownership groups. When I go to an industry event 10 years ago, those other guys like us, and then a lot of mom and pops. Now it's, you know, the likes of reps from Blackstone and Carlisle group and and got lots of other institutional groups that are showing up there. So just it's very different world, and probably more akin to that of what the apartment sector looks like, as far as ownership groups and the consolidation that's happening.

Keith Weinhold 23:52

You're feeling more of that competition. Kevin and I are going to come back and talk about another, I suppose, real estate investment that has something to do with wheels, and that is investing in parking lots. I'm your host, Keith Weinhold

Keith Weinhold 24:07

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Ted Sutton 25:51

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Keith Weinhold 25:59

welcome back to get rich education. We're talking about two real estate investment niches with Kevin bump today, an expert in both mobile home park investing and in parking lot assets. And Kevin, I got to tell you, I am more skeptical about parking lot investing than I am about mobile home park investing, but you can probably help me with this. I think we know that. I mean, gosh, just historically, ever since Henry Ford did his thing. I mean, mass transit adoption is really slow in most US cities. But anymore, one needs to wonder, okay, can autonomous cars disrupt the parking model? A Robo taxi can just constantly stay on the road, dropping off and picking up passengers where, you know, some people foresee a day in the not too distant future that people won't even need to own cars. They'll sort of have a subscription to a car service, but now this is where your expertise is. So I'm sure you thought above and beyond that. So what are your thoughts there, just for the need for parking spaces?

Kevin Bupp 27:11

You make a valid point. I think the adoption of that, it's, I think it will be very different from market to market, say, the city, whereas, if you want to maybe look at one area. We have a parking garage today in downtown Phoenix, Arizona. Phoenix is very much a driving city. It's parsed out very far the public transit. It's not great there. And again, it's just it's a wider state, whereas, if you compare it to like a San Francisco, the adoption of Robo vehicles and robotaxis and things like that autonomous vehicles is much, much faster than that of a of a phoenix. But also San Francisco is much a much more consolidated marketplace as far as the urban core. And so for that reason, you know, we look at parking, it's got a there's a couple things also that feed into that. So I want to back up a little bit. One of the major changes that has been really playing out over the past 15 years within the parking sector is that building departments within now, I think it's over 100 cities across the country. Denver just announced last week that they're also adopting this policy. And that policy is that historically, if you were Keith, you're going to go on, hey, I want to build this in downtown. I want to go build this apartment complex, condo complex, mixed use property, whatever it might be. Historically, they would have required you, whether you wanted to or not. They would have made you put in a certain amount of parking per 1000 square feet, every municipality would have a formula. And what, what a lot of these cities realized a couple decades ago is that, based on their, you know, antiquated formulas, they had a surplus of parking available on a lot of these downtown areas. You know, it wasn't being used. And given the developer an opportunity and the choice to say, Hey, do I want to build 20 more parking spaces that aren't going to get used? Or I want to build want to build 10 more apartment units, they're going to choose the apartment units. And so the parking mem requirements have been taken away, have been eliminated in a lot of cities over the last decade plus. And so that's created a shrinking supply of parking because now when developers build something, they're building only as much as they need, sometimes not even as much as much as they really need, because then they can still rely upon other ancillary parking structures within the immediate marketplace. And so, so there's a shrinking supply of parking. And every city that we own in today there's a massive shrinking supply of parking. So that's big piece of it that we know that inevitably, if we get the location right, an area where literally, you wouldn't be able to afford, based on the cost of construction and the cost of lands, they wouldn't be able to afford even building new parking structure, if you so chose to. And now that there's also a shrinking supply, diminishing supply, of this parking that we can be comfortable in our demand for our product, and so to the point of like autonomous vehicles and things of that nature, I do think there will be a time. I don't know how long that time is. I do think that there will be a time where we'll see some sort of impact. I don't know what that is. And so how we underwrite deals is we feel very confident over the next 10 years. We have to have a absolute confidence level over the next 10 years that there's going to be continual demand based on the various factors within this marketplace, the demand drivers that are servicing that garage, like, who's parking there, why they're parking there. But second to that, when we. Buy something. We need to have the air rights. We know that there inevitably will be a higher and better use. So Location, location, location, it's got to make sense today as parking. We got the underwriting has to stand on its own as parking, and we have to have a comfort level that 10 years, there will be sufficient demand throughout the duration of the next decade, in the event things start changing down the road, we know that, literally, the lowest use that it could ever have is its present use, which is parking because it's just a concrete structure, sometimes just an asphalt parking lot, to where, once you go vertical, that's where you're going to be able to unlock a lot of additional potential. And so we don't underwrite the future. We look at that as icing on the cake. But we know, based on the the location, the proximity to, you know what else is happening in that marketplace, that location will be in demand, not just today, but many decades to come. So I'll stop there and see if you have any clarifying questions.

Keith Weinhold 30:51

I think about how for the parking lot investor, Jamie Dimon has been really good for you. He is so hard on the return to Office. Mandate?

Kevin Bupp 31:01

Yeah, I'd say one thing that's important to make note is, I don't know what the future holds for office I tend to make the argument that wherever picking office building in a marketplace, wherever they're at with occupancy today, I think it's probably as good as it's going to get. We don't have to go down that rabbit hole. But I just I feel like it's been long enough since covid. And don't get wrong, there's gonna be a few companies that are going to be pressed that are going to be pressing, you know, in a big way, to get people back, but I think 80% of them that we're going to go back are already there. And so any parking asset that we look at, if it's got more than 10 or 15% as far as relationship with an office building or multiple office buildings in immediate vicinity, then we typically pass on it. And on top of that, it's got to have a variety of demand drivers. So it just can't be supportive of one or two different demand drivers. We have have at least five. And so it can be a courthouse, municipal buildings, sports arenas. It's got to be a 24/7 city where there's something happening, 24 hours a day, seven days a week, hotel, valet, restaurants, retail, things like that. And office has to be a very minimal part of that makeup, or else we just move on, because I don't know how to fix it. How to fix that problem yet. I don't know what's going to you know what the future holds for your traditional office towers, especially the ones that are, you know, 50, 60% vacant at the present time? Yeah, that's interesting, because when you look at a parking lot and you're evaluating its potential and its current use, yeah, you're basically thinking about, what is that tenant mix. You don't want 100% of it to be for one office building. You would probably want a number of uses. That's correct. Yeah, absolutely. Again, like I said, Five is our minimum. I mean, the more the merrier. And I'd say another big piece of it, if we had to look at the different demand drivers and put a value or a hierarchy of what we feel, what are the highest priority demand drivers, transient is the best. I want to know that the folks that are coming there, there's enough attractions in immediate vicinity, and we need to know what those attractions are, and better understand those attractions. But there's a variety of attractions in the immediate vicinity to where it's going to continually attract transient parking. So it's not just it's not a reliance upon one thing. And so, for example, we just closed on a garage in historic Philadelphia, and so it's a block away from Liberty Bell, two blocks from Independence Hall, any of other museums. I mean, like it's it is we talk about location, location, location. It's there that part of Philadelphia has been in demand by tourism for hundreds of years, and I don't foresee that that changing anytime soon. And so 70% of the makeup of the traffic in that garage is made up of transient traffic, so folks that are visiting the various attractions and immediate vicinity. So even if one of those attractions went away, which most of them are historical, they're not going to go away. If one or two did, it still wouldn't have that significant of an impact on the parking demand.

Keith Weinhold 33:36

That's interesting. Okay, a transient customer, not one that's showing up and parking there every day to go to work. And yes, the Liberty Bell, Independence Hall, there's going to be a long term demand to see those sorts of things in person. So that's an interesting way to think about that. And Kevin, while we've been talking about parking, at least in my mind's eye, a lot of times, I've just been thinking about one paved at grade parking area, but we're talking about parking garages as well. Or what are some of the trade offs there between parking garages and an at grade parking lot?

Kevin Bupp 34:08

Yeah, I mean, at grade parking lot is, can't get any simpler than that. I mean, typically they're asphalt or sometimes just crushed gravel, but that's it. So as far as future capex requirements, there's not many, right? It's very, very minimal. Whereas a parking garage, especially if it's in a colder environment, where there's snow and you've got salt on the road, salt that's making its way up the concrete, seeping into the cracks, you've got structural rebar issues to worry about, things of that nature. So weather can take a major toll on parking structures if they're not maintained well. Whereas you know the worst that could happen the same weather, you know, the weather takes the same toll on these asphalt parking lots, but it really only equates to maybe a pothole that you have to fill in, and a parking structure could be deteriorated to the point of no return if it's been neglected long enough to where it might be unsafe, structurally where you know now you're you're getting condemned or shut down. So big considerations there, it's interesting. We Own, the one we own in Phoenix, the Phoenix, it's a desert. It's a desert climate. They get very little moisture. And that was that parking garage was built in the 60s, so very long time ago. It's the oldest thing we have in our portfolio, but it better condition has been preserved better than that of of a recent garage we purchased that was built in 1990 that's all the environment that's in. You know, there's really not much that can deteriorate concrete once in the desert.

Keith Weinhold 35:22

Was there any last thing on parking lot investing like something that gets an investor really interested in this asset class? What's really compelling and profitable about it?

Kevin Bupp 35:33

It's very technology driven business, and what we have found is a lot of these parking assets, of either they're owned by, you know, an individual investor, or if they happen to be owned by an institution, they've never been viewed as the primary investment vehicle. A lot of institutions that own parking garages, they happen to own them by default, because maybe they bought the two office towers years back, and it just happened to come with parking right? And so a lot of times, they've been somewhat neglected, like the PnL has been neglected. They haven't found ways to really extract all the value out of these parking facilities. And so very commonly, we'll go in and we'll find that the technology that's in place is 10 years old. And think about what a computer 10 years ago look like, right? Like it's you're not catching all the license plates. You're not able to log in and adjust pricing in a dynamic manner based on supply, demand factors. And so we can simply go in and just create a more efficient pricing model and find sometimes, you know, 10 15% of additional revenue just from doing those simple things, like literally a few $100,000 worth of upgrades and technology, we can add millions of dollars of value. There's other factors, you know, just simple things folks want to park in a not just clean and safe, but well lit. You know, they want to feel safe in lighting. And we'll find parking facilities that still have old halogen lights. Half of them are burnt out. If you start serving people, they're actually not parking there in the evenings. They're finding somewhere else to go because they don't feel safe. And so just going in and doing a revamp, you know, an upfit with LED lights, making it nice and bright, bright and clean and letting everyone feel safe, we'll find a instant increase in demand and Parkers in the later evening hours. So I mean just little simple operational tweaks that we can make that just have simply been overlooked for many, many years by the prior ownership groups.

Keith Weinhold 37:15

That's really interesting, that oftentimes the owner of a parking lot owns that parking lot as an afterthought, because they were in it to purchase the building that accompanies the parking lot. So it would make sense that when you focus on that parking lot, you could really add value and profitability to that lot. Well, Kevin, these have been interesting chats between mobile home park investing and parking lot assets. I think that the commonality here is that you the investor, are just owning a lot, and therefore the maintenance and hassles with these things are really low. This gives our audience an awful lot to think about. So Kevin, are there any last thoughts that you have about this space overall, and then please let us know how our audience can learn more.

Kevin Bupp 38:02

No additional thoughts. I don't believe I'd say that if you have an interest, if we've piqued your interest at all, we've written a number of white papers on both asset classes, both parking as well as mobile home parks. You can download all that for free on our website. Invest with sunrise.com We've got a number of other case studies on our website. We're pretty transparent. Well, what we buy, what we've owned, what we've exited out of. We'll go as far as providing appraisal reports and third parties and things like that on our website. So if you just want to get a sense of not just who we are, what we do, but just have a better understanding of the investment thesis behind parking and manufactured housing, there's tons of resources that you can download from the website.

Keith Weinhold 38:37

Well, that's a great way to learn more about Kevin, what he does, and then maybe even invest alongside him. Well, Kevin, it's been valuable and eye opening. It's been great to have you back on the show.

Kevin Bupp 38:46

Yeah, thanks for having me, Keith. Been a lot of fun, my friend. Good seeing you again.

Keith Weinhold 38:57

Yeah? Good stuff from Kevin there. The MHP space becoming more consolidated and corporatized too. You know, single family rentals are different from mobile home parks in that way. I mean, 90% of single family rentals are owned by small mom and pops, which means those people that own between just one and five properties, Kevin used the term loss to lease a few times. That phrase loss to lease being a real estate education show what that term means is really a lot like how it sounds. It is the potential income that a property owner misses out on because the actual rent collected is less than the current market rent. That's what loss to lease means. Though, I like the long term future of mobile home parks more than parking deals. You know, Kevin did, though, have some great answers for why he still likes parking. He focuses on a 10 year horizon. He. Looks for at least five use types for the parking. And then another great point is that in a lot of cases, the land that the parking occupies is its lowest use. So therefore, when they sell the parking area, they can get some nice exit income. That makes a lot of sense. And being two native Pennsylvanians like we are, I am familiar with that part of Philly that he's talking about. In fact, what's funny is that, in producing this show today, I guess cookies are doing their thing. This parking lot deal in Philly just appeared in my Instagram feed next week on the show, it'll be back to no guest. It's going to be all me, and you're going to hear some things that you wouldn't expect to hear Until then, I'm your host, Keith Weinhold, don't quit your Daydream.

Dolf Deroos 40:51

Unknown Speaker 41:19

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572: Landlording vs. Professional Management, How to Increase Your Income as a Real Estate Lender

Complete episode transcript:

Keith Weinhold 0:01

Welcome to GR, I'm your host. Keith Weinhold, talking about real estate versus stocks, how housing has been in a recession that could now be thawing. Then why the war on the young and the vanishing middle class threatens to get even worse today on get rich Education.

Keith Weinhold 0:19

You It's crazy that most people think they're playing it safe with their liquid money when they're actually losing savings accounts and bonds don't keep up when true inflation can eat six to 7% of your wealth. Every single year, I invest my liquidity with FFI freedom family investments and their flagship program with fixed 10 to 12% returns that have been predictable and paid quarterly. There's real world security. It's backed by needs based real estate like affordable housing, Senior Living and healthcare. Ask about the freedom flagship program when you speak to a freedom coach there. And here's what's cool. That's just one part of FF eyes family of products. They include workshops and special webinars, educational seminars designed to educate before you invest start with as little as 25k and finally, get your money working as hard as you do. It's easy to get started. Just grab your phone and text family. 266866, text the word family. 266866, that's family. 266866,

Corey Coates 1:37

you're listening to the show that has created more financial freedom than nearly any show in the world. This is get rich education.

Keith Weinhold 1:47

Welcome to GRE from Rocky Mount North Carolina to Mount Shasta, California and across 188 nations worldwide. I'm your host, Keith Weinhold, and you are inside for another wealth building week of get rich education. A lot of people have been building wealth lately. Do you even understand all the markets that are either at or near all time highs, real estate, stocks, gold, all recently hit those levels, also nested home equity positions of American property owners are at all time highs. Silver is also near an all time high, and so are FICO credit scores. All this means that the haves are in really good shape, and the have nots aren't more on that later. Let's then you and I talk about real estate versus stocks. I've invested in both for decades, and it's not something that I do on the side. This is the core of what I do and talk about with you every week. And I've never felt more inclined toward investing in real estate ever the resilience of residential real estate, a major reason is that I've always found real estate investing easier to understand than the s and p5 100, and it comes down to the mechanics of each one in The stock market, a company can be well run, it can be profitable, and it can even be growing, yet its stock price might fall anyway. Why? Because expectations weren't met for a quarterly earnings report, or investor sentiment just happened to shift for a while, people just tended to focus on the bad stuff instead of the good stuff, even though it was always there, and that's why the stock price went down. So what makes a stock move more often than not, is kind of laughable. It isn't a word sentiment, emotions. It's how investors collectively feel about a stock and that can change on a dime. One quarter's earnings miss an interest rate hike, geopolitical news or even a single social media comment from a CEO that can move billions of dollars of market value in an instant real estate, on the other hand, that strips away a lot of that noise and that ability for other people's emotions to ruin the price of your apartment building that cannot happen at its core, the value of a property is tied to its income stream and the market that It sits in, that makes it far more direct and way more controllable. If I buy a property, I can see the levers in front of me and ask my property manager to push or pull them or even do it myself. For example, I just asked them to replace flooring in three of my apartment units. With pricier luxury vinyl plank rather than new carpet, and that's because I plan to hold that building for another five years or more. I'll attract a better quality tenant that can afford to pay me more rent. So I know that if I improve operations and increase occupancy, reduce expenses or reposition the asset down the road. I mean, that is directly going to increase net operating income, and that increase will directly affect my valuation. So there's a logic to this that's almost mechanical, and that is not to say that real estate is without nuance or risk. The risk lies in execution. You have to underwrite carefully. Is the location of your property sustainable long term? Are the demographics supportive of Lent growth? What capital improvements are truly lucrative to you and provide the tenants with value, and what kind of improvements are only cosmetic? So real estate isn't just tangible, it's also something that you can interact with. You can walk a property, you can even speak to tenants, study the neighborhood and know exactly what you're dealing with. It's not a ticker symbol reacting to opaque forces that you'll never see or control, and for me, that tactile nature creates clarity. When you buy the right property in the right market with the right strategy, then the path forward is not mysterious. It isn't whimsical, it's deliberate. Real Estate is easier to understand than the S p5, 100. And that also doesn't mean that real estate is simple, because there is that due diligence and strategy, but it's the cause and effect relationship between what you do and the outcome that you get that's far more direct with stocks. You can be completely right about the fundamentals. I mean, you can nail it. You can Bullseye that stock target, and after all that, yet still lose with real estate. If you execute well, the fundamentals eventually do show up in the returns and see because of that direct cause and effect relationship, you can improve yourself as a real estate investor faster than a stock investor can, and that's because you can learn about how your upgrade drove your properties, noi, that information, that feedback that you got, that's something that you can either replicate again or improve upon in your own investor career. So between real estate and stocks, execution is the real differentiator, and control is a key one as well. To me, that sweet spot is control that I have. But through a property manager that way, control doesn't mean that you're losing your quality of life, your standard of living. Now, some people, they do, have the right handyman skills to maintain the property and the right people skills to maintain the tenants. So self managing it can work for just a few people. I sure don't have the handyman skills myself. Sheesh, if I even try to hang a picture on a wall, there's a 50% chance that it's going to end in a drywall patch job. When you can see the cause and effect between your decisions and the property's performance, it creates that level of control that stocks and bonds just don't offer. And I'm also being somewhat kind to stocks by discussing a benchmark like the s, p5, 100, even harder to control and understand are the Wall Street derivatives and financial mutations that the people invested in them don't even understand. Unlike stocks, you own, the levers you own, the operations, the expenses and the occupancy, both have risks, but real estate's risks are more perceptible, more knowable. You won't have to cringe when a company's CEO posts a tweet that's either pro Israel or pro Gaza. Billions of market cap is wiped out, and your investment goes down 12% in one hour. This is why we talk about real estate on the show. There is less speculation and conjecture. It is concrete stuff, and that's all besides how real estate pays you five ways at the same time, as if that wasn't enough.

Keith Weinhold 9:38

Now, when we talk about real estate investing in this decade, do you realize that we have been in a housing recession for two years? A recession in real estate? I mean, it might not feel like it with those home prices at erstwhile mentioned all time highs. We don't need to have falling prices to have a recession. Investors are obviously. Making money in this housing recession. The recession I'm talking about is the slowdown in housing activity stemming from less affordability, lower sales volume and less available inventory. But we do now have signs that we are breaking out of these housing doldrums. As far as affordability, national home prices are staying firm. But what's helping there is that mortgage rates have fallen, and we've also had wages that are rising faster than rents and wages that are rising faster than mortgage payments. In fact, wages have been rising faster than both of those for most of the last year now, and that's sourced by Freddie Mac Federal Reserve stats and rental listings on Redfin. Yes, year over year, American wages are up 4.1% rents are up 2.6% and mortgage payments are basically unchanged over the past year, up just two tenths of 1% and of course, these facts, combined with lower mortgage rates, all supports more real estate price growth. Now to kick off the show, I mentioned how real estate stocks and gold all recently hit all time highs. Well, that's denominated in perpetually based dollars, of course. However, one thing that affects you that certainly has not reached all time highs is the level of available homes, the number of homes for sale, that inventory is up off the recent bottom in 2022 yet it is still below pre pandemic levels. We have had quite a recovery here. National active listings definitely on the rise. They are up 21% between today and this time last year. Well, that means that buyers have gained leverage, mostly across the south, where lots of new building has occurred, and some areas of the West as well. Yet today, we are still, overall here 11% below 2019 inventory level. So nationally, we're basically still 11% below pre pandemic housing inventory levels. And in the Midwest and Northeast, the cupboard looks even more bare than that, since new construction totally hasn't kept up there, we will see what happens. But with the recent drop in mortgage rates, buyers might take more of that available inventory off the shelf. But here's the twist that I've heard practically no one else talk about no media source, no one in conversation. Nobody. It is the paucity of available starter homes. It's the entry level home segment that has the great scarcity, and it's these low cost properties that are the ones that make the best rental properties. Their paucity is jaw dropping, as sourced by the Census Bureau and Freddie Mac starter home construction in the US. I mean, it is just fallen precipitously. Are you even aware of the trend? All right, defined as a home of 1400 square feet or less, all right, that's what we're calling a starter home. Their share of new construction that was 40% back in 1982 Yeah, 40% of new built homes were starter homes. Then by the year 2000 it fell to just a 14% share, and today, only 9% of new built homes are starter homes, fewer than one in 10, and yet, that's exactly what America needs more of. So although overall housing inventory is still low, it's that entry level segment that is really chronically underserved, and that won't change anytime soon, we remain mired in a starter home slump because builders find it more profitable to build higher end homes and luxury homes. Yet for anyone that owns this workforce rental property, which is the same thing we've been focused on doing here on this show, from day one, you are sitting in an asset class that's going to remain stubbornly in demand over the long term. And when it comes to starter homes, the ones Investors love most, they are more scarce than bipartisan agreement in Congress, really. That is the takeaway here.

Keith Weinhold 14:39

So last week, I had an interesting in person meet up at a coffee shop with a 19 year old college student because he's a real estate enthusiast, rapping Gen Z there. He's an athlete too, an 800 meter runner. Well, his dad read Rich Dad, Poor Dad, and his dad has 60 rental properties. Where they're from in Wisconsin, and maybe you're wondering, oh, come on, what could I learn from this 19 year old? I don't think that way. Now, I told him about some foundational GRE principles like financially free, beats debt free and things like that. It was also insightful to get his take on how he sees the world, and for me to learn what his professors are teaching him about real estate investing in his classes, he talked about how his professors show them, for example, what affects apartment cap rates. Also about how, whenever they run the numbers on a property, it always works out better to get the debt, get that mortgage, and how that leverage increases total rates of return. I was really happy that he's learning that over there at the university, but I was really impressed how at age 19, he's responsible and understands so much about society, politics, investing, athletics and even diet. I mean, this guy is rare, talking about his preference for avoiding food cooked in seed oils and choosing beef tallow instead. He also lamented on how Generation Z is so screwed up, saying that no one reads, no one's having kids, no one can buy a home, no one's going to be able to buy a home, and that people his age are so used to looking at screens that they're anxious about in person interactions, even in person, food ordering from a waiter at a restaurant gives them anxiety. He and I are planning to go running together next week. We'll see how that goes. As a college 800 meter runner, he's going to have the speed advantage on me, but we're running up a steep, 40 minute long trail where I've got a shot at an endurance advantage. So it was rather interesting to get his take and see what college professors are teaching on real estate. I mean, this generation that's coming of age now, Gen Z is the worst generation since George Washington to have it worse off than their parents. I'm going to talk about that today, shortly. next week, on the show here, I plan to help you learn about what's going on with some real estate niches and what their future looks to be over the next 10 to 20 years, including mobile home park real estate and parking lot real estate, one of these asset classes I really don't like the future of That's all next week on the future of some certain real estate niches. Straight ahead today, I want to tell you about mortgage rates in a way that you've never thought about before and more about the war on the young and the vanishing middle class. I'm Keith Weinhold. There will only ever be one. Get rich education podcast episode 573, and you are listening to it.

Keith Weinhold 17:53

If you're scrolling for quality real estate and finance info today, yeah, it can be a mess. You hit paywalls, pop ups, push alerts, Cookie banners. It's like the internet is playing defense against you. Not so fun. That's why it matters to get clean, free content that actually adds no hype value to your life. This is the golden age of quality email newsletters, and I write every word of ours myself. It's got a dash of humor. It's direct, and it gets to the point, because even the word abbreviation is too long, my letter takes less than three minutes to read, and it leaves you feeling sharp. And in the know about real estate investing, this is paradigm shifting material, and when you start the letter, you'll also get my one hour fast real estate video course, completely free as well. It's called the Don't quit your Daydream letter. It wires your mind for wealth, and it couldn't be simpler to get visit gre letter.com while it's fresh in your head, take a moment to do it now at gre letter.com Visit gre letter.com

Keith Weinhold 19:06

the same place where I get my own mortgage loans is where you can get yours. Ridge lending group and MLS, 42056, they provided our listeners with more loans than anyone because they specialize in income properties. They help you build a long term plan for growing your real estate empire with leverage. Start your prequel and even chat with President Chale Ridge personally. While it's on your mind, start at Ridge lendinggroup.com that's Ridge lendinggroup.com

Todd Drowlette 19:38

this is the star of the A E show the real estate commission, I'd roll that. Listen to get rich education with my friend Keith Weinhold, and don't quit your Daydream.

Speaker 1 19:49

Welcome back to. Get Rich Education. I'm your host. Keith Weinhold, as a reminder that show the real estate commission starring our friend Todd Drolet, who is a guest on the show here with us at the beginning of this month, it starts October 10, on A and E, that's that reality based commercial real estate show. Late last year, the Fed lowered interest rates, and they're doing the same thing again this year, when interest rates rise and fall, think of it like a wall that's being raised and lowered. Cutting rates is like lowering the height of a wall or a dam. That's because it allows for the free flow of capital. Savings rate accounts. Well, since they'll now pay at a lower rate with this rate cut, they're more likely to get shifted out and invested somewhere and flow into something else, driving up that other asset's value. Mortgages are more likely to originate because you pay less interest. Lowering rates lowers the impediment to the flow of money. It eases that flow. Oppositely, raising rates is like increasing the height of a wall or a dam, because if your savings account rate goes from 4% up to 5% oh well, you more likely to keep it parked there a higher wall or dam around your money, and raising rates makes your mortgage costs higher, so you're more likely to stay put and not move money around, constrained by the higher wall, that's how interest rates are like walls and lower walls also increase inflation, since they increase The flow of money, and hence the demand for goods and services. Well, then why did the Fed cut rates, lowering the wall opening the door for inflation this last time? Well, I think you know that was due to the evidence of a sputtering job market. You know that, if you follow this stuff, a slowing job market slows the flow of money, hence why they lowered the wall to increase the flow. Now this might translate to even lower mortgage rates. It does have that loose correlation anyway, and this should lift the housing market. But here's the real problem. Inflation is higher than the Fed wants already, and it's still rising, and they cut rates, making it more likely to rise further. This is like pouring gasoline on a campfire while yelling, don't worry. I got this sure the fire burns brighter, all right, but you might lose your eyebrows. The risk here is that these rate cuts will make inflation spike, since lower rates makes everyone less likely to save and more likely to borrow and spend, this pushes up prices even farther and faster, and this is the Fed's dangerous game. This is the crux about why the Fed is between a rock and a hard place. Ideally, the Fed only cuts of inflation is at or below their 2% target, but understand it hasn't even been there one time in nearly five years. Now, year over year, inflation was 2.7% last month and rose to 2.9% this month. The price of almost everything is up even faster than it usually goes up, beef, housing, haircuts, flamin hot, Cheetos, everything as we know this inflation that's now positioned to pick up again. However, for us, this is the long term engine that makes our real estate profitable. It makes it easier to raise rents, all while your principal and interest payment stays fixed. Inflation cannot touch that like a mosquito buzzing against a window, and let's be real, official inflation numbers are like Instagram filters. They are shaved down, touched up and airbrushed. The government massages them with tricks like hedonics, the wave of inflation that peaked at 9% in 2022 that has already widened the distance between the haves and the have nots, like the Grand Canyon, eviscerating so much of the middle class. And now the powers that be are setting up a scenario for another wave of elevated, long term inflation. This could get dire. Look like I was saying earlier the generation coming of age today is the first one since George Washington to have it worse off than their parents. Do You understand the profundity of this? They had the lowest home ownership rate, and they're the poorest, often leaving them directionless, anxious, depressed, drug addicted and even suicidal for. The first time in US history, Americans are on track to be poorer, sicker and lonelier than their parents. They will make even less than their parents did at the same age, and that's despite having a college degree. Inflation is a big reason for that, and that's what I help you solve here. I can't really help you with the depression stuff. That's not really my role with what I do here in the show. But inflation, in getting behind is one contributor to all these things. Understand, in 1989 those under age 40, they held 12% of household wealth. Today it's just 7% older Americans got rich, and they basically locked the gates behind them. Those over age 70 only held 19% of US wealth in 1989 now it's 30% Harvard's endowment has grown 500% since 1980 that's adjusting for inflation, but yet their class size hasn't grown. I mean, this is just more evidence that old money wins and young people are losing and cannot get ahead in 2019 the federal government spent eight times more per capita on seniors than they did kids. We all know that Gen Z is delaying marriage, home ownership and family formation in 1993 60% of 30 to 34 year olds had at least one child. Today, it's gone all the way down to 27% in about 30 years, that's fallen from 60% down to 27% this is not a resource problem. It's a values problem and an inflation problem, and also the tax code, values owning assets which older people have over labor, which younger people have. This is the crux of the war on the young and the war on those that don't own assets. You've got to wonder, is it even fixable? Some of it is, but no one really wants to fix inflation, and now they're lowering rates to open the door for even more of that widening that canyon, yes, the wave of inflation that started four to five years ago that broke down the middle class, and now it's set up to widen even more. I want to tell you what you can do about that shortly. But first, have you ever wondered, why do we even stratify upper, middle and lower class based on somebody's income? Why the income criterion, if you say that someone's upper class, everyone knows what that means. It means that you have a lot of wealth or income. But why is that the basis? Why do we classify it based on income? Well, it really started forming during the Industrial Revolution of the 1700s and 1800s that began in Great Britain. Before that, class distinctions were usually based on land ownership or nobility or occupation, for example, aristocrats versus peasants. But as industrial capitalism spread out of the UK, wages became the dominant way that people made a living. So tracking income, it sort of became this natural way to map out class. And then this notion spread in the 1800s and 1900s that was propelled through both economics and social science. You had thinkers like Karl Marx and Max Weber that were deeply concerned with class. Marx emphasized ownership of the means of production. You've probably heard that before, capitalists versus workers. But as societies modernized people in the world of both Economics and Psychology, they agreed that income was an easier dividing line than ownership alone. And then, starting last century, in the US, the 1900s income statistics, they became rather central in all of these policies that we make, like our tax system and poverty thresholds and qualifying for housing programs and even welfare benefits. See, they all rely on income bands. And over time, this normalized in our vernacular, these strata of upper middle and lower class sort of this income based shorthand that we use, throwing these terms around. So whether we like it or not, classes are based on your income level, and that's how it came into being. Well, with. A quick history lesson with the eroding of the middle class, with the war on the young. What can you actually do to make sure that you find yourself on the upper income side of it without falling to the lower side the lower class? Well, we know who the future financial losers are going to be. It is anyone not owning assets, and it's also savers clutching their dollars as those dollars quietly melt like ice cubes in July, right in their hand. Those are who the financial losers are going to be. Who are the winners going to be? It is asset owners riding the inflation wave, and the winners are also debtors who get to pay back tomorrow with cheaper dollars today, especially with that debt that you have outsourced to tenants. Here's the big takeaway, if you did not grab enough real assets during the last wave of inflation don't get left behind this time, because the longer you wait, the harder it is to jump aboard this moving train that keeps getting momentum and moving faster. The bottom line here is that at GRE we advocate for simply doing it all at once. Use debt to own real assets while inflation pushes up your rents. That's it, right. There it is. That's really the most concise way to orate the formula. Look in your mortgage loan documents. It does not say that you have to repay the mortgage loan in dollars or their equivalent. It only says you have to repay in dollars. That's your advantage. As dollars keep trending closer to worthless. To review what you've learned so far today, real estate is easier to understand and has more control than stocks. Housing has been in a recession, but there's more evidence that it is thawing, and a setup for more inflation has America poised to exacerbate the war on the young and widen the canyon between the haves and the have nots, and it threatens to get even wider as the middle class keeps vanishing and struggling.

Keith Weinhold 32:23

Now, if you like good free information, like with what I've been sharing with you today, and you find yourself doing a bit too much scrolling for quality written real estate and finance info. I mean, yeah, it can be a mess. It can be tough. If you want to get the good stuff, you hit paywalls and pop ups, and you get these push alerts and cookie banners. It's a little annoying. It's like the internet is playing defense against you. Not so fun, and that's why it matters to get good, clean, free content that actually adds no hype value to your life. This is the golden age of quality email newsletters. I've got one. I write every word of ours myself, and it's got a dash of humor, yet it's direct. And it gets to the point because, as I like to say, even the word abbreviation is too long. My letter takes less than three minutes to read, and it leaves you feeling sharp and in the know about real estate investing, this is the good stuff, the paradigm shifting material, the life changing material, you can get my letter free at gre letter.com Where else would you get the GRE letter? Greletter.com and along with the letter, you'll also get my one hour fast real estate video. Course, it's completely free as well, and it's not to try to upsell you to some paid course, there is no paid course, there's just nothing for sale, no strings attached, free value. It's called the Don't quit your Daydream letter. It wires your mind for wealth, and it couldn't be simpler to get as you know, I often like to part ways with something actionable for you, visit gre letter.com while it's fresh in your head, take a moment to do it now one last time it's gre letter.com until next week. I'm your host. Keith Weinhold, don't quit your Daydream.

Speaker 2 34:24

Keith Weinhold 34:52

The preceding program was brought to you by your home for wealth building. Get richeducation.com

Direct download: GREepisode573_.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 4:00am EST

Mon, 22 September 2025

Keith discusses the pros and cons of being a hands-on landlord versus hiring a property manager.

Self-management offers cost savings, quality control, and better tenant relationships but can be challenging due to tenant and contractor management.

Keep up with inflation and market trends, by using tools like Rent Finder.ai for market analysis.

Dani-Lynn Robison with Freedom Family Investments joins the conversation to highlight their recession-resilient real estate funds offering 8-16% returns, with options for liquidity and growth.

Resources:

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Call 844-877-0888
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Show Notes:

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571: Trump's Takeover of the Fed Will Unleash a Wealth Bonanza and a Dollar Crash with Richard Duncan

Complete episode transcript:

Keith Weinhold 0:01

welcome to GRE I'm your host. Keith Weinhold, being a hands on landlord versus professional property management. Which one is right for you? How often and how much should you raise the rent? Then learn how, rather than a landlord, to be a landlord and increase your income by becoming a real estate lender. Today on get rich education,

Speaker 1 0:28

since 2014 the powerful get rich education podcast has created more passive income for people than nearly any other show in the world. This show teaches you how to earn strong returns from passive real estate investing in the best markets without losing your time being a flipper or landlord. Show Host Keith Weinhold writes for both Forbes and Rich Dad advisors, and delivers a new show every week since 2014 there's been millions of listener downloads in 188 world nations. He has a list show guests and key top selling personal finance author Robert Kiyosaki, get rich education can be heard on every podcast platform, plus it has its own dedicated Apple and Android listener phone apps build wealth on the go with the get rich education podcast. Sign up now for the get rich education podcast, or visit get rich education.com

Corey Coates 1:13

You're listening to the show that has created more financial freedom than nearly any show in the world. This is get rich education.

Speaker 2 1:30

Welcome to GRE from Charleston, South Carolina to Charleston, West Virginia and across 188 nations worldwide. I'm Keith Weinhold, and you're listening to get rich education before we talk about, should you be your own landlord or not, and how often do you raise the rent? Let's get more personal. I want to get introspective with you with three questions, do you focus more on what you have or on what's missing? Yeah, and not just as an investor, but in your overall life. Do you focus more on what you have or on what's missing? As for me, it's what's missing, and that might be a shame. I'm definitely grateful for what I have, but probably not grateful enough if you also focus more on what's missing from your life rather than what you have. Maybe you need to be more grateful for what you've got too. But those like me that focus more on what's missing are often accomplishment driven people always trying striving for more. The second question is, do you focus more on your past, present or future. Now we all focus on all three, but which one do you focus on the most? For me, it's the present and then the future after that. The third question that you can ask yourself to learn more about yourself is, do you focus more on what's in your control or out of your control, I focus more on what's in my control. So there you go. Certain combinations of those questions can tell you a lot about yourself. For example, if you answered that, you're most focused on your future and what's out of your control, you could be setting yourself up for some sleepless nights. Oh, gosh, did I lock the car door or really, it's more like, Geez, how is that meeting really going to go tomorrow? I do some of that too fretting too much about the future for things outside your control that won't change your future one bit, but yet, ostensibly, that steals your peace of mind in the present. And I don't know who to attribute those questions to. Who originated them, but I heard Tony Robbins talking about them, and that helps you figure yourself out for some of what we're talking about here on today's show. I want to start off real basically here most first time real estate investors, they find themselves diving into the world of property management with zero experience and tons of uncertainty. You don't have to put management experience on a resume before you hire yourself to manage your own property. Self managing a rental property, it can be daunting in the beginning, but it also offers you some real benefits, like greater control and cost savings and some hands on learning. But self management comes with its own set of challenges, like tenant management and handling maintenance issues, so let's weigh some of those pros and cons of self landlording versus outsourcing it to a professional manager, there are about four key advantages to self managing. I think that most obvious one is the cost savings, because property management companies typically charge eight to 10% of the monthly. Rent amount for their services, along with an additional fee for placing a tenant or renewing a lease, and maybe even a fee for certain maintenance types. By self managing, you can then avoid these fees and keep more of the rental income for yourself and thereby making your investment more profitable. Say that your property is rented for $2,000 a month. That $200 management fee, because that's 10% Well, multiply that by 12, that's $2,400, a year, plus a typical leasing fee when a new tenant is placed is a half months rent. That's $1,000 in this case, now, you're probably not going to have a new tenant placed every single year, but if you did, then that's $3,400 annually to the manager in total, between the management fee and the leasing fee. Another advantage of DIY ing is quality control. Now, I think people that tend to be control freaks, oftentimes have to self manage, and they care a little too much. But when you self manage, you do have direct control over the maintenance and tenant selection and the overall condition of your property, and that is going to ensure that your investment is well maintained and that your tenants are satisfied. Property managers, they often manage multiple properties, so your rental might not get as much attention. And the most common, recurring issue that I hear from investors that use a professional management company is that they don't feel like their property is getting enough attention, or that the property manager doesn't really care that much about them after their contract is signed. And if you think that through, from the property management industry side, you know most managers, they're only making that 100 to 200 bucks of recurring revenue per month on each property they manage, and these are pretty thin margins overall. So in order to run a profitable business and pay their employees and cover their other business expenses, these property managers, they need to onboard hundreds of clients, and in turn, that's going to spread out their efforts pretty thin if you've only got a few properties with a manager. Well, their main priority sometimes ends up being their bigger clients. So the smaller you are, the further down the callback list you might be. But I'll tell you, even staying in touch with my professional managers a little bit, even the ones I only have a few properties with, I feel like I get what I need. A third advantage to managing yourself is better tenant relationships. You've got a level of control that allows you to build relationships with your residents that can lead to longer retention and less of that costly turnover, and having that direct communication that builds some trust, that builds some respect between you and your tenant, they appreciate a landlord like you is probably going to respond quickly to maintenance requests and the fact that you're approachable if an issue comes up, and also, by you being more involved in the tenant screening process, you can ensure that you select a pretty good tenant that's going to stay Long Term and really take care of your property. Another advantage to you self managing is that you do build some valuable skills. I mean, managing a property on your own that teaches you a big range of pretty versatile skills, from like handling maintenance and repairs to negotiating leases and just overall, managing your finances, these can be pretty helpful skills, not just for your rentals, but for your future business ventures. So really, those are some of the upsides of self management. Now, how about the flip side, the challenges of self managing your own rental property? Well, the problem is managing your tenants. I mean, some say that this whole discipline that's called Property Management ought to be called tenant management and handling tenant relations. That's one of the most critical aspects of being a self managing landlord. I mean, even if you try to build tenant relationships, mismanagement that can lead to vacancies or disputes or can even go into legal issues. So educating yourself on landlord tenant laws and best practices, that's pretty essential. If you want to head off problems, you've got proper tenant screening and addressing tenant concerns and ensuring that rent is paid on time. I mean, all that stuff's crucial. Most tenants are pretty reasonable, but you know, there are always going to be a few that will challenge your patients, and it really requires that you be tactful and professional to manage well, managing contractors. I mean, property maintenance, that's another key responsibility you have to. Fine and hire and coordinate contractors for repairs and upkeep and poor contractor management that could lead to cost overruns or really shoddy work and more, knowing how to negotiate contracts and oversee projects that's crucial to maintaining the tenant satisfaction and the overall quality of your property. Another downside of self management is handling emergencies, I mean plumbing leaks or electrical issues, that stuff could happen anytime. And as a self managing landlord, you might not always be available to respond immediately, which can lead to property damage or unhappy tenants. So self managers, they really need to be problem solvers. Self managing a rental property, things go fine 99 plus percent of the time, but it could get emotionally taxing, especially if those tenant relations become a problem. So you got to keep personal feelings out of it, that stuff can cloud your judgment and negatively impact your decisions. If you want to self manage, you've got to maintain professionalism and set clear boundaries and remain objective when you're dealing with tenants and property issues, so creating systems and processes help you minimize those emotionally driven decisions, and can help you ensure consistency in managing approach. And then there is that legal side you ought to keep up on that local area's landlord and tenant law. So in conclusion, on whether to be your own landlord or outsource it to professional management, while these challenges are pretty real, you should still be able to self manage your properties, even remotely, even across state lines or from 1000s of miles away. I mean, most of these worst case scenarios that you hear about, like a flood at 2am I mean that stuff just never happens. I mean, it's never happened to me, even if you don't have previous experience, you really can effectively manage your rental properties and see positive results when you got the right tools and the right mindset. And today's tech tools make remote management easier than it's ever been in human history. But any long time listener knows that I do not manage my own properties. My time is simply too valuable. As a frequent guest on the show here, Robert helm says life is too short for property management, I just feel a personal sense of freedom and autonomy and some headspace clearance by knowing that no tenant can contact me directly yet that my manager is taking care of them. I mean, it's just not worth doing it myself to get that last 2% toward perfection. When you buy in the most investor advantage areas, you should have enough margin to pay for a manager.

Keith Weinhold 13:03

All right, well, let's change topics now, and whether you self manage or you outsource it to a pro, you know, you've got to ask, how much and how often should landlords raise the rent? That is the question. Let's say you've crunched the numbers and expenses are climbing like they have these past few years, and the market is shifting and your rent hasn't changed. That really leaves you with one big question, Should you raise the rent? And should you raise it every year? And if you're new to landlording, it can kind of feel complicated. It could feel like if you raise the rent too much, you risk losing a great tenant if you raise it too little or not at all, and you might fall behind on costs then, or even undervalue your property if you don't keep your rents up there, because five plus unit property values are based on the rent, which goes into the NOI your net operating income. And really, this is one of the more common dilemmas that landlords face. But really, the good news is that there's a pretty clear way forward. So let me help you determine when a rent increase makes sense, and then figure out an amount that keeps your unit competitive. It keeps your rental income on track. Now some people, they actually believe that landlords are required to raise the rent every year and to a tenant, it might seem like that's what happens, but no, landlords are not required to raise the rent every year. They often choose to do so to keep up with inflation or stay competitive and high demand markets, and keep up with shifts in local rental trends, gradual, smaller increases can help you avoid the need for making larger jumps later, that stuff can surprise or frustrate your tenant. You want to go for those big rent jumps, but two. 19 tenancies. We've covered that part before. Now, some landlords prefer to keep rent steady, like when they have long term reliable tenants, or they're just focused on building equity over time, and they want to stay hands off, and don't really need the cash flow so much. Now, in a lot of cases, maintaining that same rent amount that sure can reduce your turnover in vacancy costs, those things are your biggest expenses, but often that is not the best approach in the long run, because you probably are a leveraged investor, meaning that you have a loan on the property. Well, then a rent increase that helps you out more than it does for the less educated, paid off free and clear property owner, because you can widen your delta faster. You widen your cash flow faster because your biggest expense, your principal and interest payment, stays fixed. Yes, you are getting leverage on both the asset value overall and the income. Yes, this is winning that third crown of GRE s inflation triple crown. So ultimately deciding how often to raise the rent, that really depends somewhat on your goals and also the condition of the rental. You got to factor in how satisfied you think that your tenant is. That's part of it, and the state of the market as well. Now, if you're unsure what the right rent price is for your area, there are increasingly sophisticated tools for helping you figure that out. Rent finder.ai, can help you. One of my property managers uses it. It's a really cool AI driven report that looks at 25 rent comparables in the area. Again, that tool is rent finder.ai.

Speaker 2 16:52

Now, when should landlords raise rent? Finding the right time to do this that helps you stay aligned with the market value all while supporting your financial goals. But there are also times where it might be smarter to hold off on hiking the rent. The most common times that you implement a rent increase are at least renewal. That's really the most common and appropriate time to raise the rent, provided that you give proper notice. You usually got to give 30 to 60 days notice. Another common time to raise the rent are after you make significant upgrades, like installing new appliances or renovating a kitchen or updating flooring. I mean, this is when it might be reasonable to adjust rent to reflect that added value. Another time is when overall market rents are rising, even if you haven't improved the unit or anything, because if rental prices in your area are up, well, then raising your rent helps keep your property in line with local rates. But you got to keep in mind that rent price increases require a well thought out strategy to avoid pushing away good tenants. Another time to increase the rent is to keep up with inflation and expenses over time, especially these last few years, we've all had higher operational costs like higher insurance, higher property taxes, higher maintenance costs. So even a small annual rent increase definitely helps offset those rising expenses, but you have got to avoid basing your rent price solely on operating expenses. When you do raise the rent for this reason, though, let the tenant know just which operating expense rose. That is going to help reduce tenant frustration. Now, on the flip side, there are times when keeping your rent steady could be the better choice, especially if you have a long term reliable tenant. I mean good tenants that pay on time and take care of the property. They are worth retaining, not all times, but sometimes avoiding that rent hike can help you maintain a good relationship. There another time to avoid it is when the rental market is soft. I mean, if there's more competition in your area, or high vacancy rates in your area, well then raising the rent could lead a tenant to look somewhere else, especially if there are vacant properties nearby that they could move into. Another time to not raise the rent is if the property hasn't changed, if you haven't made any of those improvements, sometimes a rent increase might not be justified, or obviously you don't want to raise the rent if you really, really want to avoid a vacancy. So keeping the rent the same might encourage them to renew. So factors to consider before raising the rent and how to calculate an appropriate increase if a unit is aging or needs repairs, raising the rent without improvement that could discourage renewals. So consider creating a value checklist to quantify certain improvements, like new apps. Appliances could be 25 to $50 a month in additional rent, or a renovated kitchen, $75 a month or new HVAC. That could be 30 to $50 a month. Think about neighborhood changes like gentrification or new schools or increased transportation access or nearby commercial development. I mean, all that stuff can raise demand, building a Whole Foods nearby, having a new office space with high wages nearby, that can increase your rent. Look at City Planning announcements and local news. You can help stay ahead of the trends that way, and if your neighborhood has seen a rise in new businesses or housing demand. I mean, that is justification for a moderate increase and a modest annual rent increase tied to inflation that can help offset your rise in costs. You can reference the CPI, yeah, the BLS. They don't just report national inflation, but they do this by region as well. Now, is there a limit to the amount of your rent increase? Well, depending on where your property is located, there might be legal limits to how much you can raise the rent, and they're typically defined by state and local rent control laws that can vary a lot across the US, in cities or states with rent control, or what's called rent stabilization, there are strict caps on how much you can raise the rent annually. And those caps, they're often based on the local CPI. They might range from 2% per year to 10% a year, depending on the area and if your rental property is in a place without rent control, well, then there might not be any legal limit on how much you can raise the rent really. That's sort of situation normal. So you do have to look at those local laws. Of course, here at GRE we recommend buying and owning properties outside of any rent control jurisdictions, which are often those places in big Northeastern cities or on the west coast where they have rent control. Well, your success as an investor, it has a lot to do with how much of your money you are leveraging, but funds that are leveraged into property that you own directly, they're not very liquid. Any prudent investor keeps a liquidity bucket of funds, and for me personally, I don't keep many of them in these online only savings accounts that might yield a 3% or 4% return today, because that is simply too low. What I do with my liquid funds is I get a return that's more than twice that amount. Where I am not the landlord, I'm the LEND Lord. Yes, l, e, n, d, lendlord, I'll tell you how to increase your income that way. That's next. I'm Keith Weinhold. You're listening to get rich education.

Keith Weinhold 23:03

The same place where I get my own mortgage loans is where you can get yours. Ridge lending group and MLS, 42056, they provided our listeners with more loans than anyone because they specialize in income properties. They help you build a long term plan for growing your real estate empire with leverage, start your pre qual and even chat with President Chaley Ridge personally. While it's on your mind, start at Ridge lendinggroup.com. That's Ridge lendinggroup.com.

Keith Weinhold 23:34

You know what's crazy your bank is getting rich off of you. The average savings account pays less than 1% it's like laughable. Meanwhile, if your money isn't making at least 4% you're losing to inflation. That's why I started putting my own money into the FFI liquidity fund. It's super simple. Your cash can pull in up to 8% returns, and it compounds. It's not some high risk gamble like digital or AI stock trading. It's pretty low risk because they've got a 10 plus year track record of paying investors on time in full every time. I mean, I wouldn't be talking about it if I wasn't invested myself. You can invest as little as 25k and you keep earning until you decide you want your money back, no weird lockups or anything like that. So if you're like me and tired of your liquid funds just sitting there doing nothing, check it out. Text family to 66 866. To learn about freedom. Family investments, liquidity fund again. Text family to 66866,

Robert Kiyosaki 24:48

this is our rich dad. Poor Dad. Author Robert Kiyosaki, listen to get rich education with Keith Weinhold. Don't quit your Daydream.

Speaker 2 25:06

If you love the income from rentals but you don't like the vetting and the tracking and the tenant calls, this episode is for you. I've openly shared with you before that I don't keep much money in a savings account, since the returns are often lower than true inflation today, it's about where I invest my own funds that I want to keep fairly liquid yet get a strong return. We're talking to who owns and runs those very funds that I'm personally invested in. She co founded freedom family investments. They're a firm with over $50 million in assets under management, and they have a 100% track record of investor payouts to those investors that include me. After building her own wealth through real estate, she made it her mission to help investors create freedom, safety and peace of mind in their portfolios. She specializes in turning hands on real estate strategies like turnkey rentals into relatively passive, scalable income. It has real estate backed returns that get fairly high. You'll see how high today. She's got a great plain English approach and focus on recession resilient, needs based assets that have earned her repeat invitations to get rich, education and other top real estate shows she and her husband flip also co wrote a great book called Get real, which I have on my bookshelf. Hey, it's great to have you back on GRE Danny Lynn Robison

Dani-Lynn Robison 26:30

thank you so much, Keith. I'm so excited to be here

Speaker 2 26:33

Danni, We'll discuss rates of return for the investor shortly, but first, I think that any prudent investor asks about that foundation, what is the investment backed by? What are the underlying assets? Tell us about that.

Dani-Lynn Robison 26:48

So that's really important to me as well. And real estate is my love and passion. So this is a fund that is based on recession resilient needs based real estate. What that means is we're really focused on the needs over economies, down economies, no matter what is going on the market, is there demand? Is there enough demand that the cash flow is going to continue on? And so our asset classes inside this fund are multifamily housing and then senior housing build to rent and self storage. And by concentrating on all of those, we're just staying aligned with the fundamental needs of American families, which is why we're freedom family investments,

Keith Weinhold 27:26

right? Okay, so, yeah, pretty staid, stable underlying assets there, like you say, these are needs based items, items that people need. And tell us more about how the investment is structured for that investor, and these investors like me, looking for predictable, passive income.

Dani-Lynn Robison 27:46

This is something that's really important to me. I'm always talking to our investors and finding out what's important to them. What are they investing in right now? How do they feel about the market? What's important to them? And out of that has come every single fund or offering that we have created. And so what I love about this one is it combines a whole bunch of things all into one place. So this fund, the way it's structured, provides diversification, because as a private money lender, you are lending on one asset, so you're dependent on that one asset actually performing and being able to pay you back. Now, as you said at the beginning of the episode, we have a 100% payout track record, and that's because I think my very first episode with you was about private money lending, and I told this story about this duplex where we lost, I want to say, over $50,000 and I talked about the importance of investor relationships to me, and that long term relationship means more to me than anything else, because if you don't Have trust, then you don't have anything, you don't have a business, you don't have you can't grow long term. So even though we had lost so much money on that duplex and made a lot of mistakes, the investor got their full principal paid back. They got every penny of interest during the time that they were owed. And that Testament has happened over and over again, and it's also why I've always preached volume, because deals like that in real estate, it's going to happen in anybody who tells you otherwise just run, because there's going to be times where you peel back a wall and there's something you know big that you're going to have to take care of, and there's times when contractors aren't going to do what they say they're going to do, and it's going to go over budget. And because of that, volume is important. So if I'm doing 10 deals a month, and two of them go bad. I've got eight that do really, really great. So that's the diversification piece that is so important to me, and therefore also important to my investors. Because we've talked about that, we've talked about those conversations. So in the fund, being balanced and diversified across those four asset classes ensures that no matter where the market is and what we're investing in, some of them could be doing really good, while some of them may not be doing as good, and we're just evening out and protecting ourselves and our investors with that separate asset classes and multiple doors. Then the other thing about that I've heard loud and clear is liquidity. And you and I were talking about this right before we pressed record, and I. Always laughed, and I was like, liquidity and real estate just don't go together. So let me figure this out. And we worked with our attorneys and figured out different ways to provide liquidity to real estate investors while still protecting just the way everything was structured, because that promise and making sure that I'm always giving that money back to the investors and paying them on time every single time, was so important, we structured a fund that allows people to invest and then get their money back in a year if they want it, but if they don't, then they get to continue investing for a period of time. And so that marriage and balance has really been a win for us and for our investors. And so I'm really excited about this fund.

Keith Weinhold 30:37

Danny Lynn, it's a little sad before our chat today, we learned about another industry professional that offered a fund to investors, and that fund imploded, for lack of a better term, and you divulged with me that you're actually familiar with that fund and with that operator that offered it. And you know you talked about how there were really some red flags, some warning signs, there, you have third party eyes on your fund for its lifespan, from beginning to end and here in the present. And the other thing is that you invest the funds in your own businesses, so you have more control over that when you talk about these four different asset types that you're involved in. So can you talk to us about that?

Dani-Lynn Robison 31:25

I've been in the room with him. I don't know him personally. We're not friends or anything, but I know him, and I know what happened as that fund progressed. And when I looked at the fund structure, I love the promissory note idea, because it's simple to understand. There's a warren buffett quote I love talking about that you shouldn't invest in something you don't understand. And I believe in simplicity. I believe in making sure that you understand exactly what you're getting into when you're putting your money on the line. And in that particular fund, it was very hard to understand the assets that you're investing in. And so it was a lot of businesses I would view them as high risk. I felt like even the monthly distributions were a little risky as well, because sometimes you just don't know if the money is going to be coming in. You know, you might be in a building phase where you actually need the capital to work on and grow and improve the business or the real estate. And so we always structure things in a way that we do two tiers. There's an income track and there's a growth track to allow us to balance everything out and be able to give the investors a lower rate of return if they want income, and a higher rate of return if they want growth, because that higher rate of return we can do that because they are allowing us to use that capital to be able to work on properties, to work on businesses have that growth trajectory, and when it comes to our businesses, I'm glad you brought that up, because he did invest in businesses, and I don't historically do that. I love real estate, but I do invest in my own businesses, because I know me. I know my character, I know my track record. I know what I promise I'm going to do, no matter how hard it is. I'm going to make sure that I fulfill those promises. And so if I have like, ownership and direct control of everything, I feel very confident in my ability to move forward. And that's really where the masternote program comes in, we now call it freedom notes, because we just love freedom so much we're just rebranding everything. So the freedom note program really does help us invest in businesses as we're growing, and it's our own businesses so super excited about that opportunity. Structured the exact same way as the flagship fund.

Keith Weinhold 33:16

You use the term promissory note there, just so that no investor is left behind. What is a promissory note?

Dani-Lynn Robison 33:23

A promissory note is really like an IOU. So I always like to compare it to bank loans. Whenever our private money lenders would come and talk to us about private money lending, and they'd say, can you explain this to me? I'd say your Bank of America like you're the one with the lien on the property, so you're in first lien position, and so if something goes wrong, then you have the ability to foreclose and get that property back. So promissory notes, essentially is a loan to this fund, and this fund is then going to use that money to purchase or acquire or invest in or do recapitalizations of those projects that we talked about. So in the flagship fund, those four asset classes, masternodes, so the freedom notes also invest in those same asset classes, but they also invest in the businesses as well.

Keith Weinhold 34:09

So we're talking about predictable passive income for the investor here, about as close to passive as it gets, hands off management. You've got the professional underwriting, the servicing and the reporting done by a third party you actually use invest next, that's the third party company that administers this. Tell us more about the investor qualifications, about the minimum investment amount and accredited versus non accredited. Tell us about that.

Dani-Lynn Robison 34:38

We have programs for both non accredited and accredited investors, and like I said, they're set up structurally very, very similar, but they are it's has to be SEC compliant, right? So for the non accredited investors, it is the freedom note program, and it's set up so your funds are in a separate bank account all by itself. It's fully tracked that way by our accounting team. And you can always go in and say, Hey, can you guys tell me where my funds are placed? And we can always track that information. So it's a little bit more work on our part, but it does allow non accredited investors to participate in something until they have the opportunity to reach a point where they do meet that accredited status and they can participate in the fund. And then the fund is the accredited vehicle. It's a 506, C, again, fully it's a Regulation D, fully vetted by our attorney. They're just actually finishing the documents right now. I didn't tell you before this, but you're actually the very first group that we're like talking to this about. And I told you how much I love our relationship and how long we've known each other, and how I just want to do more things with you. And so we're like, this is perfect that we get to actually launch it to Keith's group first. So we're excited about that as well. And then you talked about invest next. This is the piece that I think is important to me, no matter who you invest in, is what is their financial transparency look like? How are in the investments tracked? Where are the funds? Who is looking at those funds. So not only are we tracking all of the funds in house, but our CPA has to look at the funds and what's happening there. And originally we had nav, which is a fund manager. Now we've moved over to our invest next, and it probably took us six months to get onboarded with them, because of all the compliance pieces required for a company like that to bring you on board. So I just think that's one of the important pieces that makes me feel safe, because I want a bunch of eyes on the financials, and it makes our investors feel safe as well.

Keith Weinhold 36:31

For those wondering why I invest my funds here, yes, you've got that third party auditing, like you've mentioned, and you're investing only in your own businesses, so you have control. That's a big part of what makes me feel good. Well, let's talk about the fun part. Danny, tell us about those rates of return and the liquidity.

Dani-Lynn Robison 36:50

The rates of return are anywhere from eight to 14% but the 14% can go up to 16% because there's a 2% bonus upon maturity, and that eight to 16% is in two series. So there's an income series and there's a growth series. The income series is what appeals to investors who want those quarterly distributions and who want the passive income and cash flow. And so that particular series is anywhere from eight to 10% and again, depending on how much you invest, there's a 2% bonus in that series, and then the growth series is even higher. And the reason that is is because these are the long term investors who are looking to really accelerate growth in their portfolio. And that allows us peace of mind that we've got capital to be able to use for the renovations, for whatever is needed, depending on the market and how the cycles are going. As I said before, real estate is illiquid, and you have to structure and balance things based on that. And the growth series is a win for the investors, because compounding on, let me see, it's 10 to 14% returns, plus, depending on how much you invest, there's a 2% bonus that compounding adds up fast. We've done math for our investors are like, Oh my gosh, I'm never moving my money. I love this. They just love to see the growth trajectory. It's a win for us, too, because we get to use that capital as needed in order to ensure that we've got successful investments at the end of the day.

Keith Weinhold 38:21

Okay, so the income series has eight to 10% returns based on how much you invest, that pays out quarterly. And then the growth series that has those higher rates of return, up to 14 even 16% where the payout is made at the end, and how long is one waiting until the end? I know it sounds like most people want to continue that compounding and roll it forward, but what does the end look like for the groceries fund?

Dani-Lynn Robison 38:47

Yeah, I'm glad you asked that. So that's the liquidity piece, and that's the thing that we went back and forth with our attorneys about, because real estate is naturally illiquid, and so what we did is it's a recurring annual renewal. So it's an auto renewal, meaning that every single year you have the opportunity to say, Hey, Danny, hey freedom, I would like to go ahead and give you notice that I would like to get my funds back. And so that gives us enough notice be able to plan for those funds to come back to you principal plus interest. And then every year, if you choose not to ask for your funds back, it auto renews for a total of five years. I believe it is. You'll have to look at the documents just to confirm everything that I'm saying, because what I'm speaking to is our freedom note program, which is what this was built off of, because it was so popular. When given investment opportunities, everybody was just like, I want to go into those freedom notes. I like those because it gave them peace of mind, the ability to take out their cash if they needed it, but allowed for a compound or fast growth and a long term investment if they felt that was right as well.

Keith Weinhold 39:47

Okay, this freedom note program either the income series or the growth series, but we're talking about rates of return here. What's interesting is we're in a period where federal funds rate drops are. Anticipated when that happens, the return on your savings account does fall by that amount. However, these funds don't. That is correct. Yes, we're talking about, again, these funds that are backed by needs based real estate, like senior housing, workforce apartments and self storage demand that stays steady, even in downturns. And I know that you have an investor story as well. Tell us about that.

Dani-Lynn Robison 40:28

Yeah. So we have so many investor stories, and you can actually see the videos and audios on our website, and I encourage you to go check them out. But we like to call this investor story Jane, because we've heard the story so often that we call her Jane. So this is really the investors who have been investing with us as private money lenders and turnkey investors. And there they realize that number one, the in and out of investments. As a private money lender means that they always have this capital sitting and earning nothing at some point in time. And the turnkey investors, they think it's passive. And then they realize, oh gosh, there are tenant issues. I do have to, you know, manage this, the property management company. I do have to double check all the financials. I do have to approve a tenant or approve repairs, and it ends up being a little bit more work, and sometimes a lot more work than they ever anticipated. Those investors in particular, are the ones that love working with us the most, because suddenly what they thought was freedom going into the investment opportunity turned out to be a little bit different than they anticipated. And so they're like, I'm so thankful to finally, you know, be in an investment with a company that I trust, but that can be there, give me liquidity options, give me a good return, but it's 100% passive. So we call that investor Jane, because we just hear this story over and over and over

Speaker 2 41:45

before I ask about how our listeners can learn more about this, if it might interest them. Is there any last thing that you want to tell the audience? Maybe something that I didn't think about asking you?

Dani-Lynn Robison 41:57

That's a great question. The here's the thing that I always like to say, when you're investing with somebody, I think it's important to ask about the worst thing that's happened, what they did, how their investor was treated, what was the financial outcome? I think those questions are people don't think to ask that. Like, when you get on the phone with somebody, everybody's gonna tell you the rosy stories and all the good things, and this is why you should invest. And they're not going to go down the road of like, what happened, like, what are the bad things? Because every business and every real estate investor experiences bad things. So finding out the character of the person, I think, is how you find out is by asking what happened in that worst case scenario. So I think that's a really great question to ask, and you can ask us anytime I transparently tell my horror stories all the time, and just always in saying how important our long term investors are with us.

Keith Weinhold 42:46

It's just like the title of your book. Get real. If you don't have a messy story to tell, you probably haven't been in business for very long. Are there any fees in order for one to get started?

Dani-Lynn Robison 42:58

No, there are no fees. That's another investor feedback piece is the confusion. It's like they want to invest, but they're so confused by investment opportunities and what they're really making. So when you invest with us, the return that we tell you you're going to get is actually the return that you're going to get. So whether it's, you know, 8% 9% 10% whatever that is, that's the return you'll get. If there's any fees in, uh, within the fund itself, there's none in the freedom notes program. If there's any fees within the fund itself, it comes from the actual underlying properties, not from investor returns.

Keith Weinhold 43:31

Well, it doesn't take very much documentation in order to get started. This could really help you make more of the funds that you want to keep more liquid as fast as 90 day liquidity. Danny, tell our audience how they can get started, and if they just want to learn more about this to see if it's right for them,

Dani-Lynn Robison 43:50

we have done something super special this time. I think I've been on your podcast probably four or five times. Now this time, I'm going to tell you to go to freedom, family investments.com. Forward, slash, G, R, E, so it stands for get rich, education, so freedom, family, investments.com. Forward, slash GRE, what we've done this time is we're really tailoring what we do to Keith, because this relationship has just been such a great relationship we've had over time that we want to make sure that the investors that come in from your audience are just they rise to the top for our Investor Relations team so that anything that you need, we're just right there for you. We've got an investor concierge, and we're just doing as much as possible to make sure that you guys are prioritized.

Speaker 2 44:30

Yeah, feel free to let them know that you learned about this through me, you'll get the VIP treatment. Danny, thanks for being such a responsible custodian of my own funds. For years, it's been great having you back on the show.

Dani-Lynn Robison 44:42

Thank you so much, Keith.

Keith Weinhold 44:50

Look the key to most anything in business or investing is for you to provide something that's of value to someone. Else. Look for something that makes somebody else money, and then go get a piece of that for yourself. And because this is where I park my own funds for liquidity, I do need something that I can count on, recession resilient needs based real estate assets that people rely on in every economic cycle. So this is backed by, frankly, pretty plain things, with durable demand, limited supply and strong demographic tailwinds. And again, those four underlying assets are multifamily housing, senior housing, build to rent, which are new single family rental communities and self storage, which is something proven to hold up even in recessions. And what makes these funds from Freedom family investments different is that, like we said, they have third party financial eyes on them, and the control is there because the funds are invested in their own companies, and now there's no such thing as a zero risk investment or even a 100% passive investment, but this is about as close to real estate passivity as you can get. There's more of that than there is with direct ownership of turnkey real estate, they'd surveyed investors to find out what they want. That's why you can choose from again, Freedom family investments either their income series, which has eight to 10% returns, but it can be up to 12% at higher investment amounts, you get quarterly distributions, or their other is their growth series, 10 to 14% returns, but it can be up to 16% at higher investment amounts, with the option to have your funds back annually. These are fixed rates of return and a declining interest rate environment like we're in now. Cannot touch those rates of return, I think, for someone that's not in real estate and doesn't understand how real estate pays, five ways, they might find it unusual that an investment can reliably return more than 10% like this. But those that are initiated, they get it. It's pretty simple. I mean, you are going to increase your income $10,000 per year if you invest 100k at a 10% return. If you'd like to learn more and see if it's right for you, it's been made pretty easy. You can do that one of two ways. Text family to 66 866, just text the word family to 66866, yes. This is how you can, rather than a landlord, be a lend Lord with the liquid component of your investments. So you can learn more about freedom family investments, just visit freedom family investments.com/gre. That's freedom, family investments.com/gre, until next week, I'm your host. Keith Weinhold, don't quit your Daydream.

Speaker 3 48:13

Keith Weinhold 48:37

You know, whenever you want the best written real estate and finance info. Oh, geez, today's experience limits your free articles access and it's got paywalls and pop ups and push notifications and cookies disclaimers. It's not so great. So then it's vital to place nice, clean, free content into your hands that adds no hype value to your life. That's why this is the golden age of quality newsletters. And I write every word of ours myself. It's got a dash of humor, and it's to the point because even the word abbreviation is too long, my letter usually takes less than three minutes to read, and when you start the letter, you'll also get my one hour fast real estate video. Course, it's all completely free. It's called the Don't quit your Daydream letter. It wires your mind for wealth, and it couldn't be easier for you to get it right now just text. Gre 266, 866. While it's on your mind, take a moment to do it right now. Text, gre 266, 866,

Speaker 2 49:53

The preceding program was brought to you by your home

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Mon, 15 September 2025

Keith discusses the potential takeover of the Federal Reserve by President Trump, highlighting the macroeconomic implications.

Economist, author and publisher of Macro Watch, Richard Duncan, joins the show and explains that central bank independence is crucial to prevent political influence on monetary policy, which could lead to excessive money supply and inflation.

Trump's policies, including tariffs and spending bills, are inflationary, necessitating lower interest rates.

Resources:

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570: Forget Population Growth—This is What Really Drives Rents

Complete episode transcript:

Keith Weinhold 0:01

Welcome to GRE. I'm your host. Keith Weinhold, the President has a plan to completely take over the Fed, a body that historically stays independent of outside influence. Learn the fascinating architecture of the planned fed seizure and how it's expected to unleash a wealth Bonanza and $1 crash with a brilliant macroeconomist today, it'll shape inflation in interest rates in the future world that you'll live in today. On get rich education.

Speaker 1 0:33

Since 2014 the powerful get rich education podcast has created more passive income for people than nearly any other show in the world. This show teaches you how to earn strong returns from passive real estate investing in the best markets without losing your time being a flipper or landlord. Show Host Keith Weinhold writes for both Forbes and Rich Dad advisors, and delivers a new show every week since 2014 there's been millions of listener downloads in 188 world nations. He has a list show guests include top selling personal finance author Robert Kiyosaki. Get rich education can be heard on every podcast platform, plus it has its own dedicated Apple and Android listener phone apps build wealth on the go with the get rich education podcast. Sign up now for the get rich education podcast or visit get rich education.com

Corey Coates 1:21

You're listening to the show that has created more financial freedom than nearly any show in the world. This is get rich education.

Speaker 1 1:31

Welcome to GRE from Fairfax, Virginia to Fairfield, California, and across 188 nations worldwide. I'm Keith Weinhold, and you are listening to get rich education. The Federal Open Market Committee is the most powerful financial institution, not only in the nation, but in the entire world, and when an outside force wants to wrestle it and take it down. The change that it could unleash is almost incredible. It's unprecedented. The President wants full control. Once he has it, he could then slash interest rates, order unlimited money creation, and even peg government bond yields wherever he wishes, and this could drive wealth to extraordinary new highs, but this also carries enormous risks for the dollar and inflation and overall financial stability. And I mean, come on now, whether you like him or not, is Trump more enamored of power than Emperor Palpatine in Star Wars or what this is fascinating. Today's guest is going to describe the architecture of the takeover the grand plan. Our guest is a proven expert on seeing what will happen next in macroeconomics. He's rather pioneering in AI as well. But today, this all has so much to do with the future of inflation and interest rates. We're going to get into the details of how, step by step, Trump plans to infiltrate and make a Fed takeover.

Keith Weinhold 3:23

I'd like to welcome back one of the more recurrent guests in GRE history, because he's one of the world's most prominent macroeconomists, and he was this show's first ever guest back in 2014 he's worked with the World Bank and as a consultant to the IMF. He's contributed a lot on CNBC, CNN and Bloomberg Television. He's a prolific author. His books have been taught at Harvard and Columbia, and more recently, he's been a guest speaker at a White House Ways and Means Committee policy dinner in DC. So people at the highest levels lean on his macroeconomic expertise. Hey, welcome back to GRE joining us from Thailand as usual. It's Richard Duncan

Richard Duncan 4:03

Keith, thank you for that very nice introduction. It's great to see you again.

Keith Weinhold 4:08

Oh, it's so good to have you back. Because you know what, Richard, what caught my attention and why I invited you back to the show earlier than usual is about something that you published on macro watch, and it's titled, Trump's conquest of the Fed will unleash a wealth Bonanza, $1 crash and state directed capitalism. I kind of think of state directed and capitalism as two different things, so there's a few bits to unpack here, and maybe the best way is to start with the importance of the separation of powers. Tell us why the Fed needs to maintain independence from any influence of the president.

Richard Duncan 4:44

Central banks have gained independence over the years because it was realized that if they didn't have independence, then they would do whatever the president or prime minister told them to do to help him get reelected, and that would tend to lead to excessive money supply. Growth and interest rates that were far too low for the economic environment, and that would create an economic boom that would help that President or politician get reelected, but then ultimately in a bust and a systemic financial sector crisis. So it's generally believed that central bank independence is much better for the economy than political control of the central bank.

Speaker 1 5:24

Otherwise we would just fall into a president's short term interests. Every president would want rates essentially at zero, and maybe this wouldn't catch up with people until the next person's in office.

Richard Duncan 5:35

That's right. He sort of wants to be Fed Chair Trump. That's right, president and Fed Chairman Trump on the horizon. It looks like won't be long, Now.

Speaker 1 5:45

that's right. In fact, even on last week's episode, I was talking about how Trump wants inflation, he won't come out and explicitly say that, of course, but when you look at the majority of his policies, they're inflationary. I mean, you've got tariffs, you've got deportations, this reshaping of the Fed that we're talking about the hundreds of billions of dollars in spending in the one big, beautiful Bill act. It is overwhelmingly inflationary.

Richard Duncan 6:12

It is inflationary. And he may want many of those things that you just mentioned, but what he doesn't want is what goes along with high rates of inflation, and that is high interest rates, right? If interest rates go up in line with inflation, as they normally do in a left to market forces, then we would have significantly higher rates of inflation. There would also be significantly higher rates of interest on the 10 year government bond yield, for instance. And that is what he does not want, because that would be extremely harmful for the economy and for asset prices, and that's why taking over the Federal Reserve is so important for him, his policies are going to be inflationary. That would tend to cause market determined interest rates to go higher, and in fact, that would also persuade the Fed that they needed to increase the short term interest rates, the federal funds rate, if we start to see a significant pickup in inflation, then, rather than cutting rates going forward, then they're more likely to start increasing the federal funds rate. And the bond investors are not going to buy 10 year government bonds at a yield of 4% if the inflation rate is 5% they're going to demand something more like a yield of 7% so that's why it's so urgent for the President Trump to take over the Fed. That's what he's in the process of doing. Once he takes over the Fed, then he can demand that they slash the federal funds rate to whatever level he desires. And even if the 10 year bond yield does begin to spike up as inflation starts to rise, then the President can instruct, can command the Fed to launch a new round of quantitative easing and buy up as many 10 year government bonds as necessary, to push up their price and to drive down their yields to very low levels, even if there is high rate of inflation.

Keith Weinhold 7:58

a president's pressure to Lower short term rates, which is what the Fed controls, could increase long term rates like you're saying, it could backfire on Trump because of more inflation expectations in the bond market.

Richard Duncan 8:12

That's right. President Trump is on record as saying he thinks that the federal funds rate is currently 4.33% he said it's 300 basis points too high. Adjusting would be 1.33% if they slash the short term interest rates like that. That would be certain to set off a very strong economic boom in the US, which would also be very certain to create very high rates of inflation, particularly since we have millions of people being deported and a labor shortage at the moment, and the unemployment rate's already very low at just 4.2% so yes, slashing short term interest rates that radically the federal funds rate that radically would be certain to drive up the 10 year government bond yield. That's why President Trump needs to gain control over the Fed so that he can make the Fed launch a new round of quantitative easing. If you create a couple of trillion dollars and start buying a couple of trillion dollars of government bonds, guess what? Their price goes up. And when the price of a bond goes up, the yield on that bond goes down, and that drives down what typically are considered market determined interest rates, but in this case, they would be fed determined interest rates Trump determined interest rates.

Speaker 1 9:28

Inflationary, inflationary, inflationary, and whenever we see massive cuts to the Fed funds rate that typically correlates with a big loss in quality of life, standard of living, and items of big concern. If we look at the last three times that rates have been cut substantially, they have been for the reasons of getting us out of the two thousand.com bubble, then getting us out of the 2000 day global financial crisis, then getting us out of covid in 2020, I mean, massive rate cuts are. Are typically a crisis response

Richard Duncan 10:02

yes, but if we look back, starting in the early 1980s interest rates have have trended down decade after decade right up until the time covid hit. In fact, the inflation rate was below the Fed's 2% inflation target most of the time between 2008 the crisis of 2008 and when covid started, the Fed was more worried about deflation than inflation during those years, and the inflation rate trended down. And so the interest rates tended to trend down as well, and we're at quite low levels. Of course, back in the early 1980s we had double digit inflation and double digit interest rates, but gradually, because of globalization, allowing the United States to buy more and more goods from other countries with ultra low wages, like China and now Vietnam and India and Bangladesh, buying goods from other countries with low wages that drove down the price of goods in the United States, causing goods disinflation, and that drove down the interest rates. That drove down the inflation rate. And because the inflation rate fell, then interest rates could fall also, and that's why the interest rates were trending down for so long, up until the time covid hit, and why they would have trended down again in the absence of this new tariff regime that President Trump has put into place. Now, this is creating a completely different economic environment. President Trump truly is trying to radically restructure the US economy. There is a plan for this. The plan was spelled out in a paper by the man who is now the Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisors. His name is Steven Moran, and the paper was called a user's guide to restructuring the global trading system. It was published in November last year, and it very clearly spelled out almost everything President Trump has done since then in terms of economic policy. It was truly a blueprint for what he has done since then, and this paper spelled out a three step plan with two objectives. Here are the three steps. Step one was to impose very high tariffs on all of the United States trading partners. Step two was then to threaten all of our allies that we would no longer protect them militarily if they dared to retaliate against our high tariffs. And then the third step was to convene a Mar a Lago accord at which these terrified trading partners would agree to a sharp devaluation of the dollar and would also agree to put up their own trade tariffs against China in order to isolate China. And the two objectives of this policy, they were to re industrialize the United States and to stop China's economic growth so that China would be less of a military threat to the United States, which it is currently and increasingly with each passing month. So so far, steps one and two have been carried out very high tariffs on every trading partner, and also threats that if there's any retaliation, that we won't protect you militarily any longer. And also pressure on other countries to put high tariffs against China. The idea is to isolate China between behind a global tariff wall and to stop China's economic growth. So you can see that is what President Trump has been doing. And also in this paper, Stephen Marin also suggested that it would be very helpful if the Fed would cooperate to hold down 10 year government bond yield in this environment, which would naturally tend to push the bond yields higher. So that paper really did spell out what President Trump has done since then.

Keith Weinhold 13:59

This is fascinating about this paper. I didn't know about this previously, so this is all planned from tariffs to a Fed takeover.

Richard Duncan 14:08

That's right, the idea is to re industrialize the United States. That's what President Trump has been saying for years. Make America Great Again. And it's certainly true that America does need to have the industrial capacity to make steel and ships and pharmaceutical products and many other things in his own national self defense. But there's a problem with this strategy since the breakdown of the Bretton Woods system, and we've talked about this before, so I will do this fast forwarding a bit when the Bretton Woods system broke down up until then it broke down in 1971 before then, trade between countries had to balance. So it wasn't possible for the United States to buy extraordinarily large amounts of goods from low wage countries back then, this thing that's caused the disinflation over the last four decades, trade had to balance because on the Bretton Woods system, if we had a big trade deficit. Deficit, we had to pay for that deficit with gold. US gold, and gold was money. So if we had a big trade deficit and had to pay out all of our gold other countries to finance that deficit, we would run out of gold. Run out of money. The economy would hit a crisis, and that just couldn't continue. We'd stop buying things from other countries. So there was an automatic adjustment mechanism under the Bretton Woods System, or under the classical gold standard itself that prevented trade deficits. But once Bretton Woods broke down in 1971 It didn't take us too long to figure out that it could buy extraordinarily large amounts of things from other countries, and it didn't have to pay with gold anymore. It could just pay with US dollars, or more technically, with Treasury bonds denominated in US dollars. So the US started running massive trade deficits. The deficits went from zero to $800 billion in 2006 and now most recently, the current account deficit was $1.2 trillion last year. So the total US current account deficit since the early 1980s has been $17 trillion this has created a global economic boom of unprecedented proportions and pulled hundreds of millions of people around the world out of poverty. China is a superpower now, because of its massive trade surplus with the US, completely transformed China. So the trade surplus countries in Asia all benefited. I've watched that firsthand, since I've spent most of my career living in Asia, but the United States also benefited, because by buying things from low wage countries that drove down the price of goods, that drove down inflation, that made low interest rates possible, that made it easier for the US to finance its big budget deficits at low interest rates, and so with Low interest rates, the government could spend more and stimulate the economy. Also with very low interest rates, stock prices could go higher and home prices could go higher. This created a very big economic boom in the United States as well. Not only did the trade surplus, countries benefit by selling more to the US, but the US itself benefited by this big wealth boom that has resulted from this arrangement. Now the problem with President Trump's plan to restructure the US economy is that he wants to bring this trade deficit back down essentially to zero, ideally, it seems. But if he does that, then that's going to cut off the source of credit that's been blowing this bubble ever larger year after year since the early 1980s and we have such a big global credit bubble that if this source of credit has been making the bubble inflate, the trade deficit, if that were to significantly become significantly lower, then this credit that's been blowing up, the bubble would stop, and the bubble would implode, potentially creating very severe, systemic financial sector crisis around the world on a much, probably a much larger scale than we saw in 2008 and leading to a new Great Depression. One thing to think about is the trade deficit is similar to the current account deficit. So the current account deficit is the mirror image of capital inflows into the United States. Every country's balance of payments has to balance. So last year, the US current account deficit was $1.2 trillion that threw off $1.2 trillion into the global economy benefiting the trade surplus countries. But those countries received dollars, and once they had that 1.2 trillion new dollars last year, they had to invest those dollars back into us, dollar denominated assets of one kind or another, like government bonds or like US stocks, and that's what they did. The current account deficit is the mirror image of capital inflows into the United States. Last year was $1.2 trillion of capital inflows. Now if you eliminate the current account deficit by having very high trade tariffs and bringing trade back into balance, you also eliminate the capital inflows into the United States, and if we have $1.2 trillion less money coming into the United States a year or two from now, that's going to make it much more difficult to finance the government's very large budget deficits. The budget deficits are expected to grow from something like $2 trillion now to $2.5 trillion 10 years from now, and that's assuming a lot of tariff revenue from the tariffs, budget deficit would be much larger still. So we need the capital inflows from these other countries to finance the US budget deficit, the government's budget deficit. If the trade deficit goes away, the capital inflows will go away also, and with less foreign buying of government us, government bonds, then the price of those bonds will fall and the yield on those bonds will go up. In other words, if there are fewer buyers for the bonds, the price of the bonds will go down and the yield on the bonds will go up. In other words, long term interest rates will go up, and that will be very bad for the US Economy

Speaker 2 14:08

the yields on those 10 year notes have to go up in order to attract investors. Mortgage rates and everything else are tied to those yields.

Richard Duncan 19:36

That's right. And cap rates. When people consider investing in tech stocks, they consider they'll buy fewer stocks if the interest rates are higher. So this is why it's so important for President Trump to conquer the Fed, to take over the Fed. That's what he's doing. Technically, he's very close to accomplishing that. Shall we discuss the details?

Speaker 1 20:29

Yes, we should get more into this fed takeover, just what it means for the future of real estate markets and stock markets. With Richard Duncan, more, we come back. I'm your host, Keith Weinhold

Keith Weinhold 20:41

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Keith Weinhold 21:13

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Dani-Lynn Robison 22:24

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Speaker 1 22:31

Welcome back to get Education. I'm your host. Keith Weinhold, we're talking with macroeconomist Richard Duncan about a Fed takeover. I think the President wants to be Fed Chair Trump, Richard. Talk to us more about this, because this is really part of a grand plan.

Richard Duncan 22:57

So the Federal Reserve is in charge of monetary policy. That means it sets the interest rates on the federal funds rate, the short term interest rates, and it also has the power to create money through quantitative easing or to destroy money through quantitative tightening. So the Fed is in charge of monetary policy. The Fed makes its decisions at its it meets eight times a year, the Federal Open Market Committee, the FOMC, meets eight times a year, and they take votes. They discuss what's going on in the economy. They make a decision about what they should do about interest rates, and in some cases, decisions about creating or destroying money through quantitative easing or quantitative tightening. They take a vote. The structure of the Federal Reserve System is as follows. There are seven members of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, so there are seven fed governors there. The Federal Reserve Board is in based in Washington, DC. In addition to that, there are 12 Federal Reserve banks around the country, like the Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis, for instance, or the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. Each of these Federal Reserve Banks have a president, so there are 12 Federal Reserve Bank presidents now at the FOMC meetings where interest rates are decided, all seven fed governors get a vote, but only five Federal Reserve Bank presidents get to vote, and they rotate their votes every year they the following year are different. Five fed presidents get to vote. The Federal Reserve Bank president of New York always gets the vote because New York is such an important financial center, but the other four other presidents keep rotating year after year, and the presidents, 12 presidents, serve five year terms, and they can be reappointed, and their terms expire all at the same time, all on the same day, all of their terms will expire next year on February 28 and they will perhaps be reappointed and perhaps. Be reappointed. So that's the structure, seven Federal Reserve Bank governors and 12 Federal Reserve Bank presidents. All the governors. All seven get to vote at every FOMC meeting, but only five of the Presidents get to vote. So that's a total of 12. The Governors of the Federal Reserve System are the most important the seven. Those seven include the Chairman, Chairman Powell, and this is why they're the most important. They're important because if four of the seven have the power to fire all of the Federal Reserve Bank presidents, if four fed governors vote together, they can fire all 12 Federal Reserve Bank presidents. It only takes four. Only takes four. Then those Federal Reserve Bank presidents would have to be replaced, but the Federal Reserve Board of Governors has to approve the replacements. So if President Trump has four fed governors who will do what he tells them to do, then they can fire all the Federal Reserve Bank presidents and only replace them with other people who will do what President Trump tells them to do. Gosh. So what this means is, if the president can get four Federal Reserve Bank governors out of seven, then he has absolute control over monetary policy. He can do anything he wants with interest rates. He can do anything he wants with quantitative easing. So how many does he have now? Well, he has two that he's appointed, Christopher Waller and Michelle Bowman. They voted to cut interest rates at the last FOMC meeting. That was a dissenting vote, because the rest of the voting members voted to hold interest rates steady. Those two have already voted with the President, so they're on Team Trump, and they're going to stay on Team Trump, because both of them would like to become Fed Chairman when Jerome Powell term expires in May next year, very suddenly and very unexpectedly. A month or so ago, another fed Governor resigned. Her name is Adriana Coogler. Her term was not due to expire for another six months, and she'd not given any indication that she was going to resign early, but she did this now gives the President can nominate the Federal Reserve Bank governors. So he is nominated Stephen Moran, the one who wrote the paper the grand plan. Grand plan. He's nominated him to replace Adriana Coogler, yeah, and he's going to vote on him on his appointment, perhaps within very soon, and it only takes 51 senators to vote him in. And since the Republicans control the Senate, he will be approved, it seems very likely that he will be approved, and that will give President Trump the third vote on the FOMC. He will have three out of the seven governors. He only needs one more, and this is where at least the cook comes in. So on the 26th of August, I think President Trump announced that he was firing Lisa Cook, a Fed governor, because she allegedly had made misleading statements on some mortgage applications that have not been proven yet, that they are alleged. So he says that he has fired her. She has said he does not have the right to fire her. The legal cases that the President does have the right to fire a Federal Reserve Bank Governor, but only for cause. And so there's a real question whether this qualifies as being for cause or not, especially since it's only alleged at this point, but assuming that he does get control. So if he does succeed in firing her, he will be able to appoint her replacement, and that will give him four members, four governors out of the seven. And as we just discussed, with four out of seven, he will have complete control over monetary policy, because with four out of seven, that would give him the power to command those four to vote to fire all 12 presidents of the Federal Reserve Banks, and then to appoint new presidents of the Federal Reserve Banks who would vote along with whatever President Trump tells them to vote for. So in that case, with four fed governors, he would have those Four Plus he would have the five presidents that he would appoint from the Federal Reserve Banks voting for him. So five plus four, that is nine, nine out of 12 voting members on the Federal Open Market Committee. He would be guaranteed nine out of 12 votes on the FOMC, and that would give him complete control over monetary policy, and that's what he needs, because his policies are inflationary. They're going to drive up inflation. They're and that's going to push up the 10 year government bond yield, and it would normally make the Fed also increase the federal funds rate, because higher inflation should the Fed in. Increase the interest rates to cool down the higher inflation. But now that's not going to happen, because he is going to take over the FOMC one way or the other. Just by firing Lisa Cook, he's sending a very clear message to all the other fed governors and to the 12 existing Federal Reserve Bank presidents, you do what I tell you or you may be investigated too. You're next, one way or the other, the President is going to get what the President wants, and what he wants is control over monetary policy, and what that means is much lower short term interest rates and probably another very big round of quantitative easing to hold down long term interest rates as well.

Keith Weinhold 30:41

That was an amazing architecture and plan that you laid out for how a President can take over the Federal Open Market Committee. That was amazing to think about that, and what we believe he wants you talked about it is potentially quantitative easing, which is a genteel way of saying dollar printing. Is it lowering the Fed funds rate down to, I think 1% is what he desired, and we're currently at about 4.3%

Richard Duncan 31:08

that's right. He said he'd like to see the federal funds rate 300 basis points lower, which would put 1.3% we could see a series of very sharp interest rate cuts by the Fed in the upcoming FOMC meetings, so we could see the short term interest rates falling very quickly, but as we discussed a little bit earlier, that would alarm the bond market and investors, because they would realize that much lower interest rates would lead to much higher rates of inflation by overstimulating the economy. And so the 10 year bond yields will move higher for fear of inflation, and that will then force President Trump to command the Fed, to create money through quantitative easing on a potentially trillion dollar scale, and start buying up government bonds to push up their price and drive down their yields, so that the 10 year bond yields and the 30 year bond yields will fall. And since mortgage rates are pegged to the government bond yields mortgage rates will fall, and credit card rates will fall, and bank lending rates will fall, and this will kick off an extraordinary economic boom in the US, and also drive asset prices very much higher and create a wealth Bonanza,

Keith Weinhold 32:15

right? And here, Richard and I are talking interestingly, just two days before the next Fed decision is rendered, therefore, with eminent cuts, we could very well see soaring stock and real estate markets fueled by this cheap credit and this quantitative easing, at least in the shorter term.

Richard Duncan 32:36

But timing is something one must always keep in mind, there is a danger that we could actually see a sell off in the stock market in the near term. If we start seeing the Fed slashing interest rates, then the 10 year bond yields will start moving higher. That would ultimately lead to quantitative easing to drive those yields back down. But when the falling short term interest rates start pushing up interest rates on the 10 year government bond yield because investors expect higher rates of inflation, that could spook the stock market. The stock market's very expensive, so before QE kicks in, there could actually be a period where raising expectations for higher rates of inflation drive the 10 year bond yields higher before the Fed can step in and drive them back down again. We could actually see a sell off in the stock market before we get this wealth boom that will ultimately result when the Fed cuts the short term rates and then quantitative easing also drives down the long term rates. I hope that's not too confusing. There could be a intermediate phase, where bond yields move higher, and that causes the stock market to have a significant stumble. But that wouldn't last long, because then President Trump would command the Fed to do quantitative easing, and as soon as the president says on television that he's going to do quantitative easing, between the moment he says quantitative and the moment he says easing, the stock market is going to rocket higher.

Keith Weinhold 34:05

And here we are at a time where many feel the stock market is overvalued. Mortgage rates have been elevated, but they're actually still a little below their historic norms. The rate of inflation hasn't been down at the Fed's 2% target in years, it's been above them, and we've got signs that the labor market is softening.

Richard Duncan 34:25

That's true. The labor market numbers in the most recent job number were quite disappointing, with the revisions to earlier months significantly lower. But of course, with so many people being deported from the United States now, that's contributing to this lower job growth numbers. If you have fewer people, there are fewer people to hire and add to job creation, so that may have some distorting impact on the low job creation numbers. The economy actually is seems to be relatively strong the the. Latest GDP now forecast that the Atlanta Fed does is suggesting that the economy could grow by three and a half percent this quarter, which is very strong. So the economy is not falling off a cliff by any means. If the scenario plays out, as I've discussed, and ultimately we do get another round of quantitative easing and the Fed cuts short term interest rates very aggressively. That will create a very big economic boom with interest rates very low. That will push up real estate prices, stock prices and gold prices and Bitcoin prices and the price of everything except $1 the dollar will crash because currency values are determined by interest rate differentials. Right now, the 10 year government bond yield is higher than the bond yields in Europe or Japan, and if you suddenly cut the US interest rates by 100 basis points, 200 basis points, 300 basis points, and the bond yields go down very sharply, then it'll be much less attractive for anyone to hold dollars relative to other currencies, and so there will be a big sell off of the dollar. And also, if you create another big round of quantitative easing and create trillions of dollars that way, then the more money you create, the less value the dollar has supply and demand. If you have trillions of extra new dollars, then the value of the dollar loses value. So the dollar is likely to take a significant tumble from here against other currencies and against hard assets. Gold, for instance, that's why we've seen such an extraordinary surge in gold prices.

Speaker 1 36:38

right? Gold prices soared above three $500 and Richard I'm just saying what I'm thinking. It's remarkable that Trump continues to be surrounded by sycophants that just act obsequiously toward him and want to stay in line and do whatever he says. And I haven't seen anyone breaking that pattern.

Richard Duncan 36:59

I'm not going to comment on that observation, but what I would like to say is that if this scenario does play out, and it does seem that we're moving in that direction, then this big economic boom is very likely to ultimately lead to the big economic bust. Every big boom leads to a big bust, right? Big credit booms lower interest rates, much more borrowing by households, individuals, companies. It would while the borrowing is going on, the consumption grows and the investment grows, but sooner or later, it hits the point where even with very low interest rates, the consumers wouldn't be able to repay their loans, like we saw in 2008 businesses wouldn't be able to repay their loans, and they would begin defaulting, as they did in 2008 and at that point, everything goes into reverse, and the banks begin to fail when they don't receive their loan repayments. And it leads to a systemic financial sector crisis. The banks lend less when credit starts to contract, then the economy collapses into a very serious recession, or even worse, unless the government intervenes again. So big boom that will last for a few years, followed by a big bust. That's the most probable outcome, but I do see one other possibility of how that outcome could be avoided, on the optimistic side, and this is it. If once President Trump slash Fed Chairman Trump has complete control over US monetary policy, then it won't take him long to realize Stephen Moran has probably already told him that he would then be able to use the Fed to fund his us, sovereign wealth fund. You will remember, back in February, President Trump signed an executive order creating a US sovereign wealth fund. And this was music to my ears, because for years, as you well know, I've been advocating for the US government to finance a multi trillion dollar 10 year investment in the industries and technologies of the future

Keith Weinhold 39:01

including on this show, you laid that out for us a few years ago and made your case for that here, and then Trump made it happen.

Richard Duncan 39:08

Let's try my book from 2022 it was called the money revolution. How to finance the next American century? Well, how to finance the next American Century is to have the US, government finance, a very large investment in new industries and new technologies in things like artificial intelligence, quantum computing, nanotechnology, genetic engineering, biotech, robotics, clean energy and fusion, create fusion and everything, world where energy is free, ultimate abundance. So I was very happy that President Trump created this US sovereign wealth fund. Now that he will soon have complete control over his US monetary policy, he will understand that he can use the Fed to fund this, US sovereign wealth fund. He can have the Fed create money through quantitative easing and. And start investing in fusion. We can speed up the creation of the invention of low cost fusion. We could do that in a relatively small number of years, instead of perhaps a decade or longer, as things are going now, we could ensure that the United States wins the AI arms race that we are in with China. Whoever develops super intelligence first is probably going to conquer the world. We know what the world looks like when the United States is the sole superpower. We've been living in that world for 80 years. Yeah, we don't know what the world would look like if it's conquered by China. And China is the control super intelligence and becomes magnitudes greater in terms of their capacity across everything imaginable than the United States is whoever wins the AI arms race will rule the world. This sort of investment through a US sovereign wealth fund would ensure that the winner is the US and on atop it, so it would shore up US national security and large scale investments in these new technologies would also turbocharge US economic growth and hopefully allow us to avoid the bust that is likely to ultimately occur following The approaching boom, and keep the economy growing long into the future, rather than just having a short term boom and bust, a large scale investment in the industries of the future could create a technological revolution that would generate very rapid growth in productivity, very rapid economic growth, shore up US national security, and result in technological miracles and medical breakthroughs, possibly curing all the diseases, cure cancer, cure Alzheimer's, extend life expectancy by decades, healthy life expectancy. So that is a very optimistic outcome that could result from President Trump becoming Fed Chairman Trump and gaining complete control over monetary policy. And this is all part of the plan of making America great again. If he really followed through on this, then he certainly would be able to restructure the US economy, re industrialize it, create a technological revolution that ensured us supremacy for the next century. That's how to finance the next American century.

Speaker 1 42:23

Oh, well, Richard, I like what you're leaving us with here. You're giving us some light, and you're talking about real productivity gains that really drives an economy and progress and an increased standard of living over the long term. But yes, in the nearer term, this fed takeover, there could be some pain and a whole lot of questions in getting there. Richard, your macro watch piece that caught my attention is so interesting to a lot of people. How can more people learn about that and connect with you and the great work you do on macro watch, which is your video newsletter

Richard Duncan 43:00

Thanks, Keith. So it's really been completely obvious that President Trump was very likely to try to take over the Fed. Nine months ago, I made a macro watch video in December called Will Trump in the Fed, spelling out various ways he could take over the Fed, and why he probably would find it necessary to do so. So what macro watch is is it describes how the economy really works in the 21st Century. It doesn't work the way it did when gold was money. We're in a completely different environment now, where the government is directing the economy and the Fed, or seeing the President has the power to create limitless amounts of money, and this changes the way everything works, and so that's what macro watch explains. It's a video newsletter. Every couple of weeks, I upload a new video discussing something important happening in the global economy and how that's likely to impact asset prices, stocks, bonds, commodities, currencies and wealth in general. So if your listeners are interested, I'd encourage them to visit my website, which is Richard Duncan economics.com that's Richard Duncan economics.com and if they'd like to subscribe, hit the subscribe button. And for I'd like to offer them a 50% subscription discount. If they use the discount coupon code, G, R, E, thank you, GRE, they can subscribe at half price. I think they'll find that very affordable. And they will get a new video every couple of weeks from me, and they will have immediate access to the macro watch archives, which have more than 100 hours of videos. Macro watch was founded by me 12 years ago, and I intend to keep doing this, hopefully far into the future. So I hope your listeners will check that out.

Keith Weinhold 44:46

Well, thanks, both here on the show and on macro watch Richard gives you the type of insight that's hard to find anywhere else, and you learn it through him oftentimes before it makes the headlines down the road. So. Richard, this whole concept of a Fed takeover is just unprecedented, as far as I know, and it's been so interesting to talk about it. Thanks for coming back onto the show.

Richard Duncan 45:08

Thank you, Keith. I look forward to the next time.

Speaker 1 45:17

Yeah, fascinating stuff from Richard in the nearer term, we could then see interest rate cuts that would go along with cuts to mortgages and credit card rates and car loan rates and all kinds of bank lending rates. This could pump up the value of real estate, stocks, Bitcoin, gold, nearly everything a wealth bonanza. Now, in polls, most Americans think that the Fed should stay independent from outside control. You really heard about how the President is dismantling the safeguards that protect that fed independence, the strategy he's using to bend the Federal Open Market Committee to His will. And this is not speculation, because, as you can tell, the takeover of the Fed is already underway. A fed governor has been fired. New loyalists are being installed, and key votes are lining up in the President's favor. But as far as the longer term, you've got to ask yourself, if these policies will inflate a giant bubble destined to burst down the road. I mean triggering a crisis as bad as 2008 I mean, these are the very questions that every investor should be asking right now, if you find this in similar content fascinating, and you want to stay on top of what is forward looking what's coming next macroeconomically, check out Richard Duncan's macro watch at Richard Duncan economics.com for our listeners, he's long offered the discount code for a 50% discount that code is GRE, that's Richard Duncan economics.com and the discount code GRE next week here on the show, we're bringing it back closer to home with key us, real estate investing strategies and insights, a lot of ways to increase your income. Until then, I'm your host. Keith Weinhold, don't quit you Daydream.

Speaker 3 47:20

Speaker 1 47:40

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Keith Weinhold 48:59

The preceding program was brought to you by your home for wealth, building, get richeducation.com you.

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Mon, 8 September 2025

Keith discusses the factors driving rent growth, emphasizing income growth, supply constraints, and affordability.

He highlights that population growth has a weak correlation with rent growth, citing examples like Austin and San Francisco. The fastest rent growth is in San Francisco (4.6%), Fresno (4.6%), and Chicago (4%), while Austin (-6.8%), Denver (-5%), and Phoenix (-4.1%) show declines.

GRE Coach, Naresh Vissa, joins the conversation to talk about the administration's focus on lowering rates and the potential for higher inflation as a result. He encourages investors to stay informed and take advantage of opportunities when rates are low.

Resources:

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569: Star of A&E’s "The Real Estate Commission": Todd Drowlette on Big Deals, Big Drama & Bigger Negotiations

Complete episode transcript:

Keith Weinhold 0:01

Welcome to GRE. I'm your host. Keith Weinhold, vital trends are moving the rental real estate market. And learn what really drives rent growth. It's probably not what you think. Then inflate, baby. Inflate. Why this administration wants inflation today on get rich education.

Speaker 1 0:22

Since 2014 the powerful get rich education podcast has created more passive income for people than nearly any other show in the world. This show teaches you how to earn strong returns from passive real estate investing in the best markets without losing your time being a flipper or landlord. Show Host Keith Weinhold writes for both Forbes and Rich Dad advisors, and delivers a new show every week since 2014 there's been millions of listener downloads of 188 world nations. He has a list show guests and key top selling personal finance author Robert Kiyosaki, get rich education can be heard on every podcast platform, plus it has its own dedicated Apple and Android listener phone apps build wealth on the go with the get rich education podcast. Sign up now for the get rich education podcast, or visit get rich education.com

Corey Coates 1:08

You're listening to the show that has created more financial freedom than nearly any show in the world. This is get rich education.

Keith Weinhold 1:18

You Keith, welcome to GRE from Whippany New Jersey to Parsippany New Jersey. Not much distance there and across 188 nations worldwide. I'm Keith Weinhold, and you're listening to this week's episode of Get rich education, where it's not just about your ROI. It's about your roti, your return on time invested, and your return on life. Everyone says that population growth is what drives rents, yes, but that's just one part of it, and it probably isn't even the most important factor. There is evidence of this, from Harvard research to what HUD has found. Austin, Texas recently added 500,000 people, rents spiked, and then supply flooded in and rents stalled. Head count wasn't enough. I discussed that in depth when I walked the streets of Austin last year. San Francisco lost population, but yet rents rebounded and remain among the highest in the nation. Harvard's housing research shows that population growth only has a weak correlation with rent growth. So what actually does drive rents? Well, income growth, supply constraints, and then staying under the 30% affordability ceiling, which is HUD's definition of what a cost burdened household is, right? That means that a tenant spends more than 30% of their income on rent. That is cost burden, and this pattern holds from ancient Rome to modern Manhattan, rents follow paychecks, not head counts and on the supply side, well, not all metros are created equal. Some have quantified it with what's called a supply elasticity score, places like Houston can seemingly build endlessly, while Manhattan and San Francisco cannot. So it's that difference that explains why incomes turn into rent growth in one market but not in the other. So if you're chasing fast growing metros, okay, but be careful, because headcount does not equal pricing power. Paychecks are what do well today, rents are falling in boom towns, but they're climbing in what we would call legacy, established metros, the year over year, rent change across US, metro areas really has a striking contrast. The three with the fastest rent growth are San Francisco up 4.6% Fresno also up 4.6% and Chicago up 4% and the three biggest declines in rent are Austin down 6.8% Denver down 5% and Phoenix Down 4.1% rent contraction in those three cities. And here's the problem during that 2020, to 2022, real estate surge. Years ago, investors piled into Sun Belt markets, and they sort of expected this endless growth, but then new supply flooded Austin, Phoenix and Denver, pushing rents down and vacancies up, and all three of those are cities that I visited during the boom and I saw the. Cranes in the air myself, and yet, at the same time, older supply constrained metros, like in the northeast, in Chicago and in San Francisco, they are quietly regaining momentum. That's where demand is steady. Construction is limited, and that's why rents are ticking higher. So this is why, like I've talked about before, it's good for you to invest in some Sunbelt areas, say, like Florida and then others that have this steady demand, like, say, a place in Ohio. And it's worth pointing out, too, how unusual it is that a city like Austin has a 6.8% rent contraction. We all know that housing prices are more stable than stocks, sure, but real estate rents are even more stable than housing prices, so this rent aberration that was caused by such wild overbuilding in Austin. Now, I recently attended a presentation on the rental housing market. It was put together by John Burns. He's the one that presented it, and he's the owner of the eponymous John Burns research and consulting. And people pay good money to attend these presentations, and he's a guy worth listening to, always with good housing market insights, and some of his insights while they're the same ones I've shared with you for a while, like how there's been a persistent lack of housing supply in the Northeast and Midwest, and still an abundant supply in the south. The Northeast is the only region of the nation that's adding more jobs than new homes at this time, the top amenities that tenants want today are a driveway in a yard. Pretty simple things. They're not a pool in a clubhouse. They're a driveway in a yard. And if you think about them, it totally makes sense, and that's why single family rentals have become such a booming industry, because that's where tenants are getting a driveway and a yard and burns. Also pointed out that most US job growth is in low income jobs. The presentation talked mostly in terms of headwinds versus tailwinds. Lower immigration. Well, that's a headwind. That's a bad thing for real estate investing, since immigrants tend to be renters. The tailwinds The good thing that includes less future supply coming out of the market, fewer apartments and fewer build to rent, deliveries coming online, fewer being added between today and 2028 and another positive for the next two decades at least, is the fact that since people are having fewer kids, that makes people less likely to settle down, buy a home and need a good school district. Well, that is good for people renting longer, longer tenancy durations, and John Burns also spotlighted how building material cost inflation is up 40% from pre pandemic times fully 40% more in material costs. But that Spike has since flattened out. However, it is just another reason why home prices can't really fall substantially. Today's prices are baked in, and his summary overall is to be bullish and bet on the tailwinds those real estate investing positives that is mostly due to future rent growth because the new supply is going away, and it's going to continue to stay difficult to buy a home, more rent growth, and that's the end of what he had to say. So as you're out there, targeting the right areas and renters for your properties, I've talked before about how new build rental property is a sweet spot, since your builder will often buy down your mortgage rate. For you, new build is where you can attract a good quality tenant. Look for a moment, just forget finding a tenant that can just barely afford your unit because they're spending 30 to 33% of their income to pay you rent, because, see, in that condition, there's no room for you to get a rent increase. If you can offer great value to your residents and target a 10 to 15% rent to income ratio, aha, you are really in good shape, because the easiest rent growth is retaining happy residents that are conditioned to accept 5% rent increases. Well, that is more likely in a nice new build property. That's where you attract a better tenant. And if they were to move out, they would have to take a lesser property so they will stay and pay the rent in. Increase, and they're going to have the capacity to do so when the rent is only 10 to 20% of their income.

Keith Weinhold 5:25

Now, when we talk about a major factor that trickles down to rents, the level of inflation, a lot of this comes down to the Fed chair and even the president, to some extent. And you know what's interesting, half the nation bashes whoever is president, and the entire nation bashes whoever is the Fed chair. Look, every recent Fed Chair has been maligned and bashed more than a pinata at a toddler's birthday party, bashed open more than an umpire at a little league game. Well, since 1980 there have been five of them, Volker, then Greenspan, then Bernanke, then Yellen and now Jerome Powell, most of that group is known for substantially lowering interest rates, yet they've remained unpopular anyway. And you know the irony here? The most popular of these five is Paul Volcker. He's the only Fed chair that's celebrated, and yet he jacked rates in the 1980s to up near 20% yes, 20% he really made borrowers feel the pain, but yet he's the only guy that's celebrated, because that's how he stomped that out of control inflation fire, 45 years ago, in 1981 mortgage rates peaked between 18 and 19% yet Somehow he's the Fed share that we celebrate? Well, here in more modern times, will the Fed eventually have to do the same thing? This is because Trump wants inflation now. The short term, talk is about lowering interest rates, but there are so many inflationary forces that you've got to wonder about how interest rates could very well go much higher later to get on top of this inflation that I'm telling you Trump actually wants. Now, of course, no one is going to come out and explicitly say that they want inflation, but that is now so implied, there are a ton of policies that the administration favors that are super inflationary. Some are a little deflationary, like deregulation, but they are overwhelmingly inflationary. Look tariffs, that's inflation on goods, mass deportations, that's labor inflation, reshaping the Fed in order to lower rates. That's inflation, the one big, beautiful bill, act that's lots of spending and largely inflationary. I'm telling you, Trump wants inflation now I'm not here to evaluate these policies for being good or bad. This is about policies, not politics, and understand it's not just the US government. It's every government everywhere that secretly wants inflation. And why do they want that? Well, first, it fuels spending. If you know that your dollars are going to shrink in purchasing power tomorrow, well then you're going to spend today, and consumer spending makes up 68% of us. GDP, yes, Amazon, thanks, you. Secondly, inflation shrinks the government's debt. The third reason that governments everywhere want inflation is because it foils deflation. In a deflationary world, people hoard cash like its gold bullion, tax revenue dries up and the economy stalls, and also inflation. It facilitates wage adjustments. It helps the labor market function. If economic conditions are weak, well, then employers can implement real wage cuts just by keeping salaries flat right where they're at. I mean, that is so preferable to cutting nominal wages directly and giving employees a pay cut notice. Everyone hates seeing that. So those are what four big reasons why governments will take their gloves off and fight in a steel cage match to the death to ensure inflation. So most expect a rate cut at the Feds meeting next week. But if this continues and there were massive cuts, you know, there's something else you've got to ask yourself, do you really want to live in an economy where massive rate cuts occur. I mean, that's what the 2008 global financial crisis and the covid pandemic in 2020 brought to us. So massive cuts mean there's some giant problem out there. Therefore, although the Trump and Powell rivalry, it might make you. Interesting theater and headlines. You know, let's not get carried away. Let's put things in perspective. What matters to you more is how many dollars you're leveraging, the efficiency of your property operations and the quality of your business relationships. Really, the bottom line is that fed tweaks are background noise inflation, that is the long term engine that makes your real estate profitable. Focus there, and let the politicians keep doing the yelling concerns about ongoing inflation and what that means for real estate investors, that's next. I'm Keith Weinhold. You're listening to get rich education.

Keith Weinhold 8:57

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Keith Weinhold 8:57

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Ken McElroy 17:26

this is Rich Dad advisor Ken McElroy. Listen to get rich education with Keith Weinhold, and don't quit your Daydream.

Keith Weinhold 17:34

we have a familiar voice back on the show. It's an in house discussion here with our own GRE investment coach since 2021 he's helped you completely free, usually over the phone, learning your own personal goals and then helping you find the market that's the right fit for you, and even help connect you with the exact property address that helps you win the inflation Triple Crown, like say, 321, Mulberry Street in Chattanooga, Tennessee. They say that formal education will make you a living self education will make you a fortune. Well, he's got them both. He's slinging an MBA, and he's an active real estate investor just like you and I. Hey, welcome back to the show investment coach and race Vista.

Naresh Vissa 18:25

Hey, Keith pleasure, to be back on.

Keith Weinhold 18:27

Inflation is something that affects real estate investors even more so than it does the general public. Since we're borrowing large sums of money and the inflation discussion sure has been interesting lately, you just can't quite get rates back down to 2% still, they've been elevated for years. So talk to us from your vantage point about inflation and future inflation concerns.

Naresh Vissa 18:51

Well, Keith, I am concerned about inflation. This is the first time in a year or so that I'm concerned with the direction and with the policy surrounding inflation, here's why. And I brought this up when I was on your podcast in July, the current administration is not talking at all about the fact that inflation is rising. We saw the CPI, for example, hit 2.3% which was four year low earlier this year, and since then, inflation has gone up. That is concerning, that inflation is going back up without any rate cuts. Yet it's gone back, I don't want to say gone back up, but it's gone up. And remember, the Federal Reserve inflation target is 2% so we want to get as close to 2% as possible. And the number one issue in the 2024 election, and the number one issue today is still the cost of everything is right, is too much, which we'll talk about, from gas prices to home values to rents to grocery that's the. Big one, the cost of groceries, the stuff that you buy at grocery stores, etc, everything is just too expensive. Of course, education, you name, childcare, everything is just too expensive. Inflation is still, I think the administration needs to really tackle this problem. They need to really, really tackle it, because it is the number one issue. It is what people essentially, their vote is, is based on it's not necessarily based on some peace agreement in a foreign nation. It's not based on some social issue. The number one issue is going to be this inflation problem. It's are things affordable? Do I have money in my bank account to pay for X, Y and Z? So I am concerned because, yes, tariffs are inflationary. That's kind of common sense. Now I think tariffs can be good. Tariffs can keep inflation in check. If they're handled the right way, we will see that. But my bigger concern is that inflation has been rising. We're not anywhere close to that 2% and we know with a very high degree of certainty that the Federal Reserve is beginning their rate cutting cycle next week with the September rate cut, and that's going to be extended. We've seen President Trump. He's very public, his Treasury Secretary, his Secretary of Commerce, all the economic advisors who he has, they're very transparent about the fact that they want rates slashed, and they want rates slashed quickly. And so we know that we're going to get a rate this is going to be a rate slashing cycle. It's going to be great for the upper class, if you want to call it, it's going to be great for real estate investors, but for the common man, the byproduct of that is going to be higher inflation. There's just no way that you can cut rates so quickly, so low, and you're not going to see inflation. That's my concern. Now on the other hand, and again, we have to see how this plays out. On the other hand, I brought up earlier this year, I've referenced Doge. I think Doge is doing a good job cutting government spending, trying to scale back some of the government initiatives, not that the government's always going to spend we know that, but it's you need to cut back, and doges is trying to do that. That's a plus. But even bigger, I talked about some foreign wars, right? Well, I think that the Middle Eastern conflict and the Russia Ukraine conflict, both of those actually are disinflationary, or fixing those conflicts, creating peace. We've seen a ceasefire in the Middle East. We've seen a peace agreement in Ukraine, and they're disinflationary because of some of the items that I brought up. I think oil is going to dip below $50 a barrel as a result of these peace agreements, these ceasefires. So we're going to see oil prices go down. When you see oil and energy prices go down, you see the cost of almost everything else go down, because you need oil and energy to transport everything else. If you're building a house, you have wood and steel and lumber and and all sorts of materials. And it's you need a truck to transport all that. And the truck is probably it's not an EV truck. You're getting these big trucks that are using diesel fuel. So if we can bring down the cost of of oil and gas and electricity, which these taking care of these conflicts will do, creating peace will do the price of those products, oil, the natural gas, the electricity, the wheat, the grains, those are your groceries. The cost of those are going to come down. So I think it's very positive what we're seeing with this idea of peace in regions that make a huge difference to the global economy. So I'm curious to see, like I think we could see greater than 100 basis point decrease in inflation just by solving these conflicts 1% or more, like I legitimately think so, and that's without the tariffs. That's without the federal rate cut. So even if we're at, let's say, two and a half percent inflation today, and you shave off 100 basis points up now you're at one and a half, and then you throw in tariff inflation, you throw in the rate cut inflation, and we're around 2% so that's the ideal scenario that the administration is hoping for. It's let's create peace, let's have a freer market, and then they can scale back a lot of these tariffs too, because many of these tariffs against India, for example, they can scale back the United States can scale back the 50% tariff on India. That tariff was India got hit with because they're buying Russian oil, and you take care of the Russia conflict. Now it's we say, oh, India, you know, we'll scale back to go back to your 25% tariff, or maybe even less, if you do X, Y and Z. For us, we can expect to see many of these tariffs scaled back. We can expect to see the price of specific goods and services, the prices decrease, which will bring down inflation. That's what I'm optimistic about. Hopefully all these agreements hold, which I think they will, and we can expect that, and the Fed can begin its rate cutting cycle, and everything will be booming, and everything will be great. This is the. Deal scenario. I'm not predicting this. This is the ideal scenario for the administration,

Keith Weinhold 25:05

when both war and terrorists get as bad as they can possibly get. From there, they can only get better, each of which would be disinflationary. Now, the CPI inflation has been reported at 2.7% each of the past two months. But when we talk about rates, Trump wants lower rates, of course, and I think we all know that the Fed's fear of lowering rates is that high inflation could resurface. One thing though, that few think about is that lower rates lead to higher inflation, which kills off the national debt faster. But when we think about upcoming federal reserve rate cuts anytime, whether this was 10 years ago today or 10 years into the future, these are the type of lessons that I like to talk about. All right, when we look at the last Fed meeting, there was no rate cut, but then awful jobs numbers were reported right after that. That's why some think that there could be a 50 point rate cut at the next meeting. The Fed meets eight times a year, so there's about a month and a half between meetings. Now, the Fed doesn't have to wait for a meeting to make a rate cut. They can do an emergency rate cut between meetings, like we saw during covid, but sometimes they're reluctant to do that because that really spooks markets, and that makes people think, oh my gosh, there was an emergency rate cut. Maybe things are worse than we thought. What's going on that triggers concern?

Naresh Vissa 26:24

Well, I think that would be a huge mistake to have an emergency. Yeah, anatomic was obviously an emergency. That was a global emergency. Makes sense. 2008 I remember, I was just college student, but that was an emergency because we saw people lining up on the streets of Manhattan with all their boxes of laid off work, and we saw that on Phoebe. You know, that was a trying time. I think that's out of the question. It's completely unnecessary, especially when the Fed meets every 45 to 50 days. It's, you know, you can wait another 20 days until the next meeting and then make a decision when you have lower rates than the cost, the borrowing costs on the debt, it goes down so the government can refinance its debt, and they would pay less keyword interest dollars. That's a plus, the other plus with tariffs. And I really hope, again, this is just my opinion. I hope this is what happens. But the government is raising quite a lot of tariff revenue, so close to $30 billion last month. And we can expect, in the first full year, next year, it's going to have raised close to half a trillion dollars just for fiscal year 2026 that's the expectation, about half trillion dollars worth of tariff revenue. And I hope that the government uses that pair of revenue to pay down the debt, because when you're paying down the debt, you're dissipating inflation. What I actually don't want them to do is to give us back that money, because they've been floating that around, saying, Oh, we got all this tariff revenue. Let's get it back as a tariff dividend, and every American gets hex, you know, $100 in their bank account or something

Keith Weinhold 28:01

very altruistic. Of you patriotic,

Naresh Vissa 28:04

I would much rather that they use 100% of it to pay down that debt, because the country is going to be better off as a whole over the long term, and in turn, the people will be better off over the long term. The people may not see it. They may want their $200 check or $100 check or whatever it might be, but over the long term, I think the tariffs are overall working out quite well. We're not seeing the crazy inflation that the mainstream expert predicted. I don't think we're going to see the crazy inflation that the experts predicted, if you it's not going to be because of the tariffs, in my opinion, I think it's going to be if there's this aggressive rate cutting cycle that juices the markets and the cost of everything just just goes up. And this ties into real estate investing, because when the Fed starts cutting, that's a very good time for real estate investors to pay attention when the Fed stops cutting immediately. That's a an even better time to pay attention when the rates have bottomed. And this has to deal with timing the real estate market. I'll give you an example. I own several properties. Of one of my properties when the Fed was cutting in 2020 it took about a year for all those cuts to permeate into the mortgage market and into the the market as a whole. It took it. The inflation didn't go up overnight. The inflation didn't go up in April of 2020 or or May of 2020 it went up in April of 2021, it took about a year. So I actually refinanced one of my properties in July of 2021, I refinanced my my property, and I saved about 110 basis points on that refinance. And that's what I mean by timing the market. Because, if you're paying attention, part of it was I knew, Okay, the Fed has stopped. It's cutting. And you know, let's follow the more. Good market. Let's follow the Treasury yield curve and all that. And I jumped in. I literally refinanced at the bottom, like at the absolute bottom. There was about a three month window that was the bottom, and I refinanced. I did the application all that at the beginning of those three months, and it was and I got that great rate at the end of those three months. And I think there's going to be a tremendous opportunity for real estate investors. And I'm sure the Bane This is why I'm a little concerned about inflation as well, because the big hedge funds, the big real estate investment firms, the big banks, the blackstones, the blackrocks, they're going to be ready, and they're going to buy up. They're going to buy up real estate again, and investors, including our GRE investors, they're going to start buying up too. So pay attention. We're going to cover it here. We're going to cover it here, on the podcast and in the newsletter. But pay attention to these rates, because it'll be, I don't want to say, a once in a lifetime opportunity, but it will be a once in a cycle type of opportunity to jump in and get some bottoming real estate values as well as bottoming real estate mortgage rates at the same time. So that equilibrium point is only, like I said, about three or four months long. So we're going to be coming to that point and timing it sometime, I think next year, 2026

Keith Weinhold 31:21

talk to us about the vibe that you're getting from GRE listeners that contact you for a free coaching session. It's really hard to time the real estate market. Why don't you help us out with that? Let us know about a listener or two that you recently helped.

Naresh Vissa 31:37

Well, we have free real estate investment coaching here at GRE. It's absolutely free of charge. You can call, text me, email me whenever you'd like. People can book a free meeting with me, and it's a session. It's an immersive session on real estate investing. So we can go over all of that on our call. You can reach out to me unlimited times, like I said, it's I'm here just to help you throughout and along your real estate investment journey, I've helped hundreds of people invest in real estate, hundreds so it's buying turnkey, cash flowing real estate properties, so our investors can buy properties, and use my guidance and advice to help them buy properties. I also help them if they already own properties, how to optimize their portfolio, how to find new markets. I help them with their existing properties, dealing with property managers, with contractors, even with issues that things aren't always great in real estate, sometimes things can be bad. So listener Paul, for example. Listener Paul, he had a problem with the builder, and he submitted earnest money, and he wanted his earnest money back. Many, many years had gone by, and he came to me and he said, Hey, Naresh, you know, I've got all this money tied up, and the builder's not giving me the money back. Can you help me? And so I got him in touch with the right people, and within three or four months, he got all of his money back, plus interest on all the missed payments. So he got everything back as a lump sum, and then he thanked me and said, Thank you so much. I can sleep better at night, and I'm just I'm doing very well now, and he was ready to buy his next property.

Keith Weinhold 33:15

That's an example of where a deal went wrong and the builder didn't perform and build a property.

Naresh Vissa 33:19

Yes, exactly. Think of me as a trusted advisor, but also as a super connector, someone who can get you in touch with all the right companies and people to make real estate investing very sound. We have listener Joe, who bought many properties through us. He bought his first property through me and through GRE through our coaching program, and that first property worked out really well. So then he said, Hey, I want to buy a second property about six months later. So he bought a second property, and that worked out well. And then he said, let's go with it. And he bought all these with the same provider. So once he reached four, because my rule is, you don't want to go more than four or five in one market. Then he asked me for the next he said, what market do you recommend next? So then I recommended the next market, and then he bought another three or four in that market, and he built a nice little portfolio of seven or I mean, some people think it's little, some people think it's big, of seven or eight properties. So that's very common with the coaching program, where our listeners are really happy. If things are going great, I'm here for them. If things are not going the way that they expected, I'm here to help fix that problem.

Keith Weinhold 34:30

Maurice, is there to help you start building and grow a portfolio. Now, how do you yourself analyze deals and find properties before you let our listeners know about them?

Naresh Vissa 34:40

Well, we work with 15 to 20 different providers around the country, 15 to 20. So these providers are always reaching out to me, emailing me, calling me, leading me voicemails, texting me, saying we've got this great deal. We've got this great incentive. So I parse through all of that, and I find a handful of what I think is best. US and many of these deals, I send them to you, Keith, to promote in your Don't quit your Daydream newsletter, which people can subscribe if they go to get rich education.com. I send them there, and I let our listeners know on the phone when they set up calls, or I have notes on every meeting. So I'm able to send all of these deals to them, and that's how I put the best deals in front of them.

Keith Weinhold 35:25

Most of the coaching calls are over the phone rather than zoom the race. Sure can arrange a zoom call with you if you prefer. You really don't need to do too much to prepare for the call either.

Naresh Vissa 35:38

No, not at all. Just sign up for the meeting, and I'll run things. I'll run the meeting, I'll run the call. It's very straightforward. It's a session. It's very immersive, very interactive.

Keith Weinhold 35:49

Yeah, and you just have to book a time with Naresh once there and afterward. Yeah, it's really casual. Naresh is very open to you text messaging him if you have any ideas, or if you just heard about something on the show that you want to know more of. But yeah, booking that first coaching call is really what opens the door to the communication. And you really staying up to date on things. You can find a race through GRE marketplace. And alternatively, you can learn more about him with his bio. And importantly, book a time on his calendar by going directly to GREinvestment coach.com for a while now he's had times available Monday through Friday, and even some weekend slots available, and yeah, keep in touch with him, because property inventory is ever changing, especially with late breaking news like we've had this year of Home Builders Offering major incentives like buying down your mortgage rate to about 5% so staying up to date has hopefully brought you, the listeners, some really big wins already this year. Naresh, do you have any last thoughts?

Naresh Vissa 35:49

Definitely book a meeting with me. You won't regret it. I think even if you think that you own all these properties, you have all this experience, I think you'll find that the resources we offer it through our free coaching program, there will be one or two nuggets that you didn't know about that will still help you. So it doesn't harm anybody to book that free session with me. If you don't think you need my help, maybe it's just a five minute call and we touch base and we're good to go. That's fine too, but I highly recommend that people get in touch with me. We go from there so that you can continue to have a fruitful investment journey.

Keith Weinhold 37:28

Naresh has been valuable as always. Thanks for coming back out of the show.

Naresh Vissa 37:31

Thank you very much, Keith.

Keith Weinhold 37:38

Yeah, some sharp insight from Naresh as always. Now, when you think about making your next property move, consider how, compared to a few years ago, uncertainty has largely abated and real estate has stabilized. Think about how back in 2020 covid was the big uncertainty concern 2021 it was this real estate boom and an inventory shortage. You would get 50 or 80 offers on one property, and buyers were waiving inspections. That was tough. That was such a seller's market in 2022 that's when you had inflation and the supply chain chaos. That's when CPI inflation peaked at 9.1% in 2023 the big uncertainty concern was interest rate shock and the affordability crisis. And last year and this year, they've pivoted more to macro economic concerns. So therefore today's chief concern gets somewhat more buffered from real estate. Now I discussed the direction of rents earlier in today's show, the recently released Kay Shiller numbers came out, and they show that national home prices are up almost 2% annually, 13 cities or higher and seven or lower. By the way, this continued nominal price appreciation that frustrates the bejesus out of those perpetually wrong crash predictors. They have been wrong even longer than the people waiting for flying cars to show up. And where will prices continue to go from here, probably even higher now, America just hit somewhat of a milestone in this cycle. You might remember that mortgage rates peaked at 7.8% almost two years ago. Well, mortgage rates have now slid down to six and a half 6.5% and here's why this has become significant, right? Just compared to when rates were 7% per the nar 2.8 million Americans now qualify to buy a home. 5.5 million more will qualify at 6% and 7.7 more will qualify at five and a half percent. My gosh. Now. Now, of course, not every newly qualified buyer is going to pounce on a property, but only if a fraction of those do. Can you imagine how this demand increase will stoke prices? There are still only about 1.1 million homes available today. So not only are mortgage rates at a fresh low, but inventory choices, although they're still historically low, they are now at a six year high, and this is all while there's less buyer competition. So today's buyer conditions are really improving, and the bottom line here is that you are in the best position in more than five years to find the right property while still avoiding a bidding war, you have really got some properties to choose from. That is the takeaway, and you don't need to do much to prepare for an immersive free call with Naresh. You know what your situation is, although you probably do want to have about a 20% down payment for a property ready to go, some of which cost as little as 200k in these investor advantage markets, whether you've never bought any property in your life, or if you have dozens, it probably will benefit you. You can easily book a time that works best for you right on a GRE investment coaches calendar that way. There's no back and forth, and you can set it up now. Should you so choose at GRE investment coach.com Until next week, I'm your host, Keith Weinhold, don't quit your Daydream.

Speaker 3 41:38

Keith Weinhold 42:02

You know, whenever you want the best written real estate and finance info, oh, geez, today's experience limits your free articles access, and it's got paywalls and pop ups and push notifications and cookies disclaimers. It's not so great. So then it's vital to place nice, clean, free content into your hands that adds no hype value to your life. That's why this is the golden age of quality newsletters. And I write every word of ours myself. It's got a dash of humor, and it's to the point, because even the word abbreviation is too long. My letter usually takes less than three minutes to read, and when you start the letter, you also get my one hour fast real estate video. Course, it's all completely free. It's called the Don't quit your Daydream letter. It wires your mind for wealth, and it couldn't be easier for you to get it right now. Just text gre, 266, 866, while it's on your mind, take a moment to do it right now. Text gre, 266, 866,

Keith Weinhold 43:18

The preceding program was brought to you buy your home for wealth, building, get richeducation.com

Direct download: GREepisode570_.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 4:00am EST

Mon, 1 September 2025

Todd Drowlette, a commercial real estate broker with over $2 billion in closed deals, joins to discuss his upcoming A&E show, "The Real Estate Commission," which premieres October 12.

Todd emphasizes that commercial real estate is "a trillion dollar industry hiding in plain sight."

He points out that people interact with commercial real estate every day - when they go to a grocery store, coffee shop, gas station, or office building - without consciously thinking about it.

Commercial real estate loans are about to face a major challenge, with many 5-year loans needing refinancing at much higher interest rates, potentially creating significant market opportunities for investors.

Check out the "The Real Estate Commission" show on A&E starting October 12th.

Resources:

Follow Todd Drowlette on Instagram at @bettertalktoTodd and check out Real Estate Commission

Show Notes:

GetRichEducation.com/569

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568: The Mortgage Moves That Can Make (or Break) Your Wealth

Complete episode transcript:

Keith Weinhold 0:01

Welcome to GRE I'm your host. Keith Weinhold, why is that convenience store, gas station or coffee shop located on that exact corner that it's on? It's strategic, and how does a deal like that really get negotiated? We're discussing this and more with an A and E television and streaming star today on get rich education

Keith Weinhold 0:28

since 2014 the powerful get rich education podcast has created more passive income for people than nearly any other show in the world. This show teaches you how to earn strong returns from passive real estate investing in the best markets without losing your time being a flipper or landlord. Show Host Keith Weinhold writes for both Forbes and Rich Dad advisors and delivers a new show every week since 2014 there's been millions of listener downloads in 188 world nations. He has a list show guests and key top selling personal finance author Robert Kiyosaki, get rich education can be heard on every podcast platform, plus it has its own dedicated Apple and Android listener phone apps build wealth on the go with the get rich education podcast. Sign up now for the get rich education podcast, or visit get rich education.com

Speaker 1 1:14

You're listening to the show that has created more financial freedom than nearly any show in the world. This is get rich education.

Keith Weinhold 1:30

Welcome to GRE from Sudbury, Ontario to Sudbury, Pennsylvania, and across 188 nations worldwide, you're listening to one of America's longest running and most listened to real estate investing shows this is Get Rich Education. I'm your host. Keith Weinhold, how did that ever happen? Here I am more slack jaw than a patient in a dentist's chair. But back with you for the 569th consecutive week. Anyway, this is the time of year where many people have just gone back to school. Here at GRE you go forward to school as you learn about what's really going to make a difference and move the financial meter in your future. Now, the world's best known negotiators include Mahatma Gandhi and Nelson Mandela today, the former FBI agent Chris Voss is perhaps the world's best known negotiator. You'll recall that we've hosted Chris Voss on the show twice here and talked a good bit about real estate negotiation. Then, I mean, who can forget my mock negotiation with him over a four Plex building, which played out right here on air. It was obvious who won that debate, but Chris is an all around negotiator, not specific to real estate. I thought, wouldn't it be great to get sort of a Chris Voss, but specific to real estate here on the show for you, and that's what we're doing today. So you're really going to enjoy this week's guest. He's also the star of a real estate reality show on the A E Network that's going to make its big, flashy debut next month. Now I had a small negotiation, I suppose, over email with one of my property managers in Florida recently, yeah, I got an email from my manager saying that an air conditioning unit needed to be removed and replaced in one of my single family rental properties there in Florida. Attached was a quote that they obtained from a company for $6,350 and there's conveniently a button for me to hit to approve this charge. But I did not hit the Approve button on that 6350, price. I requested that they provide me with two more quotes. And yes, remember, you pay your property manager often eight to 10% of the monthly rent in management fees they are working for you. So what are they working on to earn that make them go to work and do this for you? All right, for substantial work items, it's a reasonable request for you to seek three quotes. And all right, while they were tracking down the two other quotes, I went to AI. I asked chat GPT, what should the cost be to remove and replace an air conditioner in a 1500 square foot home in Florida? Chat GPT answered, 5500 to $7,500. For a standard three ton system in a 1500 square foot home. All right, so the first number the manager gave me that was sort of right in the middle of that range. A few days later, the second quote came in at 6150, all right, 200 bucks less than. The first one, I replied to them that if the third one doesn't come in substantially lower, that I am going to go seek quotes myself. A couple days later, the third and final quote came in, and it was 4990, yes, so I accepted it. This is about $1,300 less than the first quote that they gave me just for returning a few emails, and it will make the tenant happy to have a new air conditioning system. Newer systems tend to be more efficient, so it's probably going to make the tenant's electricity bill lower as well, and it probably makes it easier for me to justify future rent increases too. That tenant's been there for quite a few years. I'm thinking six years, and today's low home buyer affordability is probably going to keep them renting for a while. And the other thing that could keep them there longer is a new air conditioning system, and that is the biggest rental property expense, or the most I even had to get involved in quite a while, because remember, at GRE marketplace, almost every property there is either brand new or completely renovated. Your cap x expenses should be small for years. Let's meet this week's featured guest.

Keith Weinhold 6:31

Have you ever wondered why that coffee shop is on that corner that they're on, or why your grocery store is located just where it is? And how do those deals get negotiated? That's what you'll see on an upcoming new series on A and E. It starts October 12. It's called The Real Estate Commission. There are no scripts. The show captures real life deals as they unfold, as they crumble and fall apart and maybe come back together again. The star of that show is with us today. He believes he will tell you that he's the most prolific commercial real estate broker in the nation, and he has the experience and the gravitas to back that up, because he brings over two decades as a broker, and he's the managing director at Titan commercial Realty Group in New York. He's closed more than 1700 deals. Yes, 1700 deals totaling over $2 billion across the commercial real estate sectors. He's represented everyone from local startups to national REITs. Hey, welcome to get rich education, Todd Drowlette

Todd Drowlette 7:36

thank you, and that was quite the introduction. I don't think I could pop up myself.

Keith Weinhold 7:40

You've got a full interview is worth the time here to live up to that. Todd, you know, more than 10 years ago, I started living this life where it seems like everything that I say gets recorded and uploaded to the internet, and now you're gone down that same road similar to that. Tell us about your forthcoming reality TV and streaming show that starts next month. What can viewers really expect to see?

Todd Drowlette 8:04

There's over 100 shows on national TV about slipping houses, renovating houses, residential brokers. Ours is the first show ever on television to feature commercial real estate and to be entirely about commercial real estate. So it's a docu series. It's an there's eight episodes in the season. It follows my team at Titan and I doing actual real deals, from helping a divorce attorney search for new office space to investors to selling multi family properties. So viewers will be able to kind of see behind the scenes and see actual documented deals as they happen, fall apart, come back together again. I'm hoping the viewers will take away the fact that, yes, you have to be sophisticated and understand what's going on, but it's something that the average person can be involved in. Commercial real estate is a trillion dollar industry hiding in plain sight. You know, people go to the grocery store, like you said, they go to the coffee shop, they go to the gas station, they go to their office building. People use and interact with commercial real estate every single day. It's just like the air. You're not consciously thinking about it, even though you're using it almost every moment of the day,

Keith Weinhold 9:10

right? It's something that we all need and interact with. It's almost non discretionary, whether we're buying something at a retail store or filling up at a gas station? Yeah, I think to some people, commercial real estate sounds unapproachable. And as you watch this series, you're thinking, Oh, that's the life that that somebody else lives. It's really not that unapproachable. Does this series really help break that down?

Todd Drowlette 9:36

It does, and we made a very conscious decision. So I represent some very large corporations, but the series follows like smaller business and entrepreneurs, and seeing kind of people from the beginning or in different transitions of their business, like I'm growing but you're seeing in real life, actual successful business people. You're seeing them to react to real situations and that kind of moment where there. Like, Man, I think I'm ready to grow and expand. But what if I'm wrong? What if the economy turns Am I doing the right thing? And you're kind of watching us guide them through that process. But you see, you know so much of the internet is reception and people going, Oh, look at this. Look how successful I am. This. You're seeing successful people, and knowing that there's no guarantee in life like the best you're ever going to make is a calculated decision. But there's no point where your life where you're so successful that it just doesn't matter if you lose. Like the deals get larger and the stakes get higher, and every decision you make is potentially a pitfall. So you're going to see real entrepreneurs and real business executives dealing with those decisions of, when do I move? Do I invest? Do I buy? You know, I have this property, I need to get rid of it, and what's that process look like? I love commercial real estate. I can go on, on about it. What I'll be really excited to see is if the everyday person finds commercial real estate interesting,

Keith Weinhold 10:54

doers don't wait for uncertainty to abate, or else they would never get anything done. Doers educate themselves and make strategic moves despite the uncertainty and Todd shortly, I do want to ask you more about negotiation and just how that coffee shop gets that prime corner spot, if you will. But first dropping back a bit more introspective, I know that some have called this the series that launched five new real estate careers already. So how transformative is this? Personally for you to do this show, besides making mom proud, it probably changes how others think of you and how you think of yourself.

Todd Drowlette 11:32

Well, my mom thought I was nuts to national television, but she's proud, but thinks I'm crazy and she's probably not wrong. How this whole thing came about was we had a show also called The Real Estate Commission, that was on Facebook watch that we averaged about 1.3 million views per episode. The premise of that show that was also called The Real Estate Commission, was, Can four successful real estate brokers take just anyone off the street and turn them into the next 100 million dollar real estate agent. It was two commercial brokers, two residential brokers. When covid happened, I said to Brandon in my office, who's part of the cast of the show, on a I was, you know, looking back now, we know how covid played out, but at the time, it was like they made the announcement, I'm somebody who works 80 hours a week, and I'm looking at potentially, could we be a year with not working and doing nothing. So I'm like, we really need to do something to market. I go, why don't we do a reality show about real estate? And he's like, What in the hell do you know about producing a TV show? I go, well, nothing, but the whole world stopped. There's got to be people. We must know, people in TV who might be sitting at home and might be willing to help produce the show. And he started laughing. He goes, Well, actually, one of my college roommates is high up at Viacom, so we called him, and we put together a whole production team of 50 people in the middle of covid, put out a casting call and filmed the show, and it did really well. And then we kind of went around to the networks and made a deal with a E, but with A and E, I really wanted to show off commercial real estate and kind of show it to the average person and show them, hey, here's this thing that people can participate and be a part of. And it's a super interesting industry because, like, when I was 22 I was the youngest exclusive Starbucks broker in the country. So have you said that coffee shop that ends up in the corner? I was the guy that, you know, Starbucks would run their software and say, you run traffic counts that are available on, you know, state, D, o, t websites. People don't realize when you're driving down the road and you see the rubber thing goes, that's actually either a traffic engineer or the state, and they're seeing how many cars a day, but they're also tracking to the hour on which side of the road. So like, why is McDonald's on the pm side of the road? Or why is Starbucks or Duncan or seven brew coffee? Why are they on the am side of the road? Because they know, looking at the traffic patterns, who's going where. So when we would negotiate a deal like that, they would say, Hey, here's the target markets we want to be in. I was the boots on the ground, so to speak. That says, Okay, let me look up the tax records and let me look up the tax maps. I know they need three quarters of an acre to an acre to fit on. They want to be at a traffic light. We need this many cars per day. Hey, it's great. If we're across the street from a university or a hospital or a major office park or a grocery anchored shopping center. Can we get out in the out parcel? There's a deal structure to it, and then you negotiate the rent and how much tenant improvement dollars, or what contributions the landlord is going to make to the deal. And that's kind of how we identify, you know, locations and negotiate. And as a broker, I get paid a percentage of that overall lease value or a sales transaction,

Keith Weinhold 14:36

well, talking about making decisions in the face of uncertainty. I mean, there it is. Case in point, you put together the architecture of a show like this during the pandemic, during the height of uncertainty. That was a really interesting thing that you said when you talk about how, for example, you probably do want to have a coffee shop located, I would imagine when you're in bound on the right. Side of the road there sort of for am traffic, 100%

Todd Drowlette 15:05

the same reason, like restaurants that are more dinner based business, businesses will be on the pm side the afternoon drive home. Or liquor stores typically like to be on the pm side of the road because people are going home, they pop in and just continue on their way home,

Keith Weinhold 15:20

right? That makes total sense to me. Todd, you do have this great command of real world negotiation tactics, helping to be sure that those prime locations, sort of like we just described, play out and happen from this $2 billion in closed deals, which is a remarkable figure. I'm sure a lot of it has to do with who you work with, who you're negotiating with. Trump was negotiating Manhattan real estate deals, and now that's pretty different, as he's trying to broker a ceasefire agreement among foreign nations. So you've got all these stories, from working with small business owners to multinational brands. So can you tell us about how who you work with changes your approach?

Todd Drowlette 16:04

You have to always know what your goal is, and the more research you know about who you're negotiating with, and the more you understand them, the better you're going to do right. Sometimes winning in negotiation is about winning. Sometimes winning in negotiation is just about not losing so sometimes I have clients that say, Get me that particular piece of real estate. I don't care what it costs me. Just get it under any circumstances. I don't care you have I have other clients like, I represent a clothing chain that's like, similar to a TJ Maxx or Marshalls. They've been around 40 years, called label shopper. They're in secondary and tertiary markets all over the country. They are very inexpensive, and they pay very low rent, and they're opportunistic. So the approach for every single deal is completely different on depending what the person's trying to do, but the tactics always the same. I always try to, as a broker, you're in the middle, so I'm always trying to figure out what are the actual deal breakers and what's motivating this side that side, and then you meet somewhere in the middle. And I try to do deals where nobody feels like you bend them over a barrel, you know, and they have a vendetta for 20 years, because it's a very small world in a very long life. So if you really stick it to somebody to the point where they hate you over it, you don't know what's that deal next week or 20 years from now that you really need and find out that person is the kid of the person you really stuck it to, and now, all of a sudden, that deal you need comes back to haunt you from the deal that you won 20 years ago. So I try to like, let people keep their pride intact, and there's a lot of like for just general negotiations. A lot of people negotiate against themselves without even realizing it. So most people fear silence, and I always say, whoever talks first loses. So if I throw out like a number, like if you were selling me something, and I said, I think my top number is $100,000 I will not speak until the other person speaks, because most people are afraid of silence. And if I throw that number out, I'm gonna go, Oh my God, he's not responding. That number is too low, and I'm instantly gonna go, well, maybe I could pay 120 or maybe I could pay 150 I've seen people do it a million times. So when I'm negotiating against people, whatever they say to me, I never respond until they talk a second time, because I wanna see how much line there is in that run before it gets to the end, and whatever number they stop at, that's where the negotiation starts. And so many people do that. They just negotiate against themselves, unintentionally

Keith Weinhold 18:31

get comfortable with silence. Oh, you just brought up so many good points there. Todd, such an important one in negotiating. You sort of touched on it is that successful negotiation is finding out what the other side wants. I might be willing to pay you full price if you give me my timeline, say you get me to the closing table in 30 days rather than 90. So terms often mean more than price. So can you speak more about how to find out what the other side wants and making sure they actually get it while still getting what you need.

Speaker 2 19:03

It depends on person. I mean, generally, this crazy and dumb of an answer as it sounds, is I just ask anyone who's blooming knows I'm a very direct person. If I won't ask you on Monday morning, how was your weekend, if I don't sincerely care how your weekend was, I'm very much a get to the point type of guy, and I find in negotiating, unless I know the person in advance, or I've done research, that there's somebody who likes to circle the wagons and go around I'm kind of a very direct right to the point kind of person. So I'll say, listen, here's things that are important to my client, what's important to you, and let me see if we can work something out that either we both can mutually agree upon and feel good about or if we can't get a deal done, I always say, I'll take a quick no over a long maybe any day. I find most people will tell you like it kind of throws people off, because most people are slick and sly, and they kind of like circle the wagons. I think people, if they like my personality, they'll find it refreshing, because whatever I say or mean is what really what I say or mean, I'm not hiding anything. So when I say, Listen, I have a client. This is what they want. Can we get this done? You'd be amazed when you're candid with people, how directly candid most people are, because it kind of throws them off, and they don't really have any choice but to be honest

Keith Weinhold 20:17

yeah, how weird this guy actually says what he means. It means what he says. A lot of people really aren't used to that type of approach. You're listening to get rich education. We're talking with the star of the upcoming A E show the real estate commission. Todd Drowlette, more, when we come back, I'm your host. Keith Weinhold

Keith Weinhold 20:35

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Robert Helms 22:16

Hi everybody. It's Robert Ellens with the real estate guys radio program. So glad you found Keith Weinhold and get rich education. Don't play your Daydream.

Keith Weinhold 22:35

Welcome back to get rich Education. I'm your host, Keith Weinhold. We're talking with the star of the upcoming A and E show, Todd Drowlette. He's not shy. He will also tell you that he is the most prolific commercial real estate broker in the entire nation, and it's great to have him here. Todd, I know that through all your dealings, again, 1700 deals, it's put you in between a lot of interesting situations. And it sure isn't always about the numbers. Sometimes it's about the story,

Todd Drowlette 23:06

a very interesting story. So I mentioned earlier that I have a client called label shopper, that's a off price clothing chain. I was doing a deal in Oxford Maine, which is a very small town, and, you know, Central Maine, and I called up this time when fashion bug had gone out of business, and we were taking over closed fashion bugs, and they said, You got to talk to Bob. I didn't know who Bob was. Bob gets on the phone. He was the biggest stone Buster you could ever imagine. I'm negotiating the deal with and talking to him, and I realized the guy kind of just wanted to fight, and he had multiple shopping centers that he wanted us to look at. And I'm like, Bob, we have enough time to get up there. And he's like, Oh no, no. I'll send my helicopter down to millionaire in Albany, New York, and I'll pick you guys up. I'll show you my three shopping centers. I'll have you back in the early afternoon. And the same guy, while he said that was literally arguing over a difference of $5,000 on my commission that I wanted for the deals. And like, I go, I'm like, Bob. So I googled the guy, and then I realized he was a billionaire, and he had founded the NASCAR track in Loudoun, New Hampshire. I said to him, I go, I'm going to say something to him, and I'm not going to speak until he speaks. And I literally go, Bob, give me the difference of the five grand on the fees. I go, stick your helicopter. I go, and I'll drive up. And I literally stared at the clock on my wall for 33 seconds. And then finally, he's like, well, well, all right, I'll give you the money. But if you don't like that, you can go to Plum hell. And I started laughing, and I said, Okay, I go. I'll call you on Monday. So I call him up on Monday. Okay, Bob, we're gonna take the deal. We're gonna we'll drive up. And he's like, No, you sob. He's like, I'm sending the helicopter anyway. It's gonna pick you up tomorrow at 9am we end up flying up to his huge estate in Lake Winnipesaukee. We land in this like, looks like Beverly Hills, manicured garden. This guy walks up to me with his son, gets in the helicopter. After he looks at my client, Peter and I, and goes, which one of you two is Jesse? I go, Jesse, I'm like, I'm Todd, and he's Peter. He goes, No, Jesse, James robbing me blind on the commission. We birthed out laughing, and then we were friends ever since, unfortunately, he died recently, but he was, like, the most fascinating, coolest guy I met him. He was in his mid 70s. He went into his 80s, but he was literally a self made guy that, you know, grew up in Connecticut on a tobacco farm. Parents had no money, you know, never went to college, and just the most fascinating guy he could decide on a deal on the back of a napkin with a pencil he always kept in his pocket. So you never know in the world, like who you meet and who you're going to become friends with, and that's just funny stories of really fascinating, interesting people I met in very unlikely places,

Keith Weinhold 25:51

amazing. You just don't know everyone's story when you first meet them. 100% Todd, a lot of your experience has given you insight on how to help develop some of the best real estate technology in order to make deals more efficient. For example, I know you developed a software platform that's soon launching that competes with costar and LoopNet. So tell us more about what you're doing in the real estate technology space and about trends there.

Speaker 2 26:18

So we have software that's the same name as the show the realestatecommission.com it's kind of a category killer. So very, very low monthly price. People can post properties. They can search commercial properties. There's blogs so you can follow up and learn you know about commercial real estate. You can find traffic counts that we referenced earlier. You can run demographic reports and say, Hey, in this particular block, or from this street over to this river, or in one mile or three miles or five miles, how much money does the average person have? What are median incomes? What race are they? What's their education levels? That's all information that exists in the public domain, but software companies charge a fortune for it, even though it's public information. Just to aggregate it, we've put all the information, and we want the information to be inexpensive and available to the average user. The other interesting thing about what's happening right now is the larger companies are kind of asleep at the wheel, where you can buy your way to the front of search results in Google and Bing, the amount of daily searches that are going to platforms like chatgpt and other AI search engines is astronomical, and you can't buy your way to the front of those search engines right now. So if you're up on your SEO search engine optimization game, it's like resetting the clock 20 years that you have another chance to bite at the apple to get customers and clients potentially directly in front of you to your platforms. So it's a really exciting time and software right now.

Keith Weinhold 27:46

That's interesting how consumers have shifted away from Google and some of the more conventional search engines, where deep pocketed people and companies can buy their way to the top. So tell us more about really the opportunity there, because that's really interesting.

Todd Drowlette 28:01

So essentially, if you understand so search engine optimization, SEO, if people don't know what that is, that's essentially you can do things to optimize your apps or your websites that allows people it's how the Internet finds you, so to speak. So there's basically ways that you can put in code that aren't complicated things, but you can also specifically submit those things to directly to chat, GPT and the other platforms, and then they go through and they index your site, and again, they're looking at it, going well, what's the most relevant so if you look at how people are searching and what the terms are, you can figure out those terms, and then you can make sure you come up at the top of those search results. And like I said, a lot of the bigger companies in different industries, from residential real estate to commercial real other things, those people rely heavily on just buying their way to the top of search results. And you can't do that right now. And I don't remember the last stat I saw was about 30 days ago, and it was something insane, like 180 million searches a day are being done on just chat. GPT, so that is a huge market that people can get their way to the top of, where you're not competing directly with a big boy, so to speak.

Keith Weinhold 29:11

Yeah, this is a way for you to get found for sure. Todd, dealing with commercial real estate, we know that that entire industry has been subject to these interest rate resets, where in the residential one to four fixed mortgage rate world, we really haven't been so I'd love to know from your perspective, and being this broker that does all this negotiating from your unique vantage point, how have higher interest rates changed things

Speaker 2 29:39

I'm often told To never make predictions, because you can be wrong. I'm somebody who's made calculated risks my entire life, and I'm not afraid of being wrong. The commercial real estate industry, I think, is about to have a coming to God moment that I think we're three to nine months away from, and the reason for that is, unlike residential loans that are 20 or 30 year. Or 15 year mortgages that are self amortizing. Commercial loans typically have a 20 or 25 year amortization, but only a five year term, or sometimes you're lucky, a 10 year term. And what happened was, when covid drove interest rates down, I have some clients that had interest rates that were 2.5 2.8% and the problem with that is interest rates are now over six so we're coming up on that five year period where you could have the same tenants, the same income, the same taxes, same expenses, if you have to refinance in the next three to six months, and those rates don't drop by at least a point, there's going to be blood in the streets like you've never seen. It's going to make the financial meltdown in 2008 2009 look like a walk in the park because you have so many loans. That's why Donald Trump, even though he's a president, that guy is, was and will always be a real estate guy. He isn't saying why he's doing it, but the reason he's pushing for the Fed so much to drop the rate is because commercial real estate is going to get murdered if the rates don't drop by at least three quarters of a point to a point in the next three to six months. That's why you're seeing the heavy pressure from Donald Trump to the Fed, because there's a lot of commercial real estate guys that have been playing musical chairs, and there's one chair for every 10 people when the music stops. So anyone listening who's only been in one to four in that unit, if you're sitting on cash, you're going to have the opportunity to buy small strip centers, you know, small office buildings, smaller properties where you can get your feet wet, where banks are going to be giving these things back, just trying to get out from underneath them. I'm willing to be wrong. I can be the guy who said it. If something drastically doesn't change the next three to six months, you're going to have major defaults. Another thing nobody's talking about is, for the last year, home loans and credit card default rates have been sky high through the roof, which means the economy is strong, as people are acting like the economy is. It's kind of like the emperor's new clothes or new robe. The economy is walking stark naked down the street, and everybody's pretending that it's wearing, you know, fine linens. And I think the rubber is about to hit the road if interest rates don't drop very quickly.

Keith Weinhold 32:04

Tell us how bad you think it will get. For example, nationally, we've seen apartment building values fall 25 to 30% or more, and some certainly not all, but some office buildings fall in value 80% tell us more. How bad will it get? Who will it be worst for?

Todd Drowlette 32:25

So the problem with a lot of commercial loans. So a lot of commercial loans, the banks are lending money to borrowers based on the credit of the leases of the tenants. Like when you own a residential portfolio, they're looking at your credit score, your assets and liabilities, deciding, okay, we're lending you the money and we have recourse. We're gonna come after you if this doesn't work out. There are a ton in commercial real estate of non recourse loans, meaning the only thing I'm risking as the owner is this property and my down payment. If this goes bad here bank, here's the key back. You can't come after me. Personally. You can't affect my more. This is non recourse. So as those large office tenants go bad, or the economy goes bad, and all of a sudden their credit ratings, of those things drop, you're going to have banks left holding the bag to the tune of hundreds of billions, if not a trillion dollars. It's going to be bad,

Keith Weinhold 33:15

and who knows if the banks will get bailed out. I don't really know if that's the right formula, if that's the right example to set there where we publicize losses and privatize gains.

Speaker 2 33:28

I mean, they might argue it worked in 2008 2009 but even if that's the case, you still have a lot of people commercial real estate's driven by ego. So before the the actual foreclosures that can take one to two to three years to finalize out with the court systems. You still will have people doing short sales. So there will be a big opportunity for people to make a leap into commercial real estate. And guys ahead of me that you know taught me the business always said you make money in real estate when you buy, not when you sell. Anytime you can buy $1 for 50 cents, you buy that dollar. So if the market drops, and you know, that's a great location of a great property that has a good roof, has good mechanicals, is in a great location. If that thing was trading for $4 million and you can buy it for 1.5 million today, that's when you buy and then you write it back up. And you know, there's guys like me, I negotiate and broker for a living, so I have an advantage that I can go out and get the tenants and find the tenants. But there's guys that do what I do, and women that do what I do, all over the country. So people can start aligning themselves with local commercial real estate experts. And maybe it's the time that they can say, You know what, maybe I'll buy a 10,000 square foot office building and give it a try. Maybe I'll buy a two or three unit strip center that has a nail salon or a beauty salon or things in it that Amazon isn't going to come along and knock out of business.

Keith Weinhold 34:52

What sectors are going to have the best opportunities?

Todd Drowlette 34:55

I'm heavy, heavy, heavy on office so I'm a big proponent of reading books that are out of college. Be right. So I love reading books that were written interviewing the robber barons, you know, the Rockefellers, the carnegies, but were written at the time they were still alive. And there's one thing, when you go back to like the panic of 1893 or 2001 you can go back and look at all these things that happen, and things are based on cycles. And one thing I can tell you with absolute certainty is the people who don't panic in times of panic when everything drops and falls apart. They're the people that in the shortest window in a two to three year recovery period where that dollar dropped at 50 cents, and it's just coming back to $1 but they bought it at 50 cents. They're the guys in like every 10 or 15 or 20 years that ride a two or three year upscale when everybody else is panicking, that's when they buy the stocks, that's when they buy the real estate, when it's low, and then they ride it back just to normal. It doesn't have to get better, it just has to go back to sea level. And I think that's about to happen in commercial real estate. And I think office is a great market because it's been getting murdered in the headlines since covid, but in any headline, there's always an opportunity, because that scares a ton of people out and people will fire sale stuff because they think it's bad and there isn't bad real estate, there's bad deals. And if you overpay for something, they're the people who get hurt. If you underpay and buy something in a value, you can make deals other people can't, and you don't take the hits the way other people take the hits. People need to be conservative. So many real estate people are like, Oh, put as little cash into the deal. Borrow as much as you can. Highly leverage, leverage deals, leverage deals. And that's fine when it works, but when it doesn't work. You know, people who could have a $50 million net worth that become broke overnight because they never took the money off the table. To me keep some of that money in, pay down your debt and just increase your cash flow and work off the cash flow. That's always been my strategy. I have friends who make a fortune and they live that high life. I like calculated risks, and to me, I never want the bank to be my boss. I like being the boss's bank, and if you owe them too much money, and especially if people cross collateralize loans and say, this is a great property, but let me borrow against it to buy this property and this property, that can be the domino effect when it goes badly all of a sudden now you put all your assets at risk. I always strongly encourage people to not do that and to keep their loans and to keep their assets separate.

Keith Weinhold 37:18

Yeah, loan terms can certainly be more precarious on the commercial side than the residential side, much of it due to fixed versus variable. History doesn't repeat. It often rhymes, and sometimes in some sectors, you want to be that buyer, when the reaction to you buying is like, are you nuts? What are you doing? Maybe office is at that point. Todd, this has been a great chat about negotiation and industry trends and more. Again, the Real Estate Commission, the show on A E debuts October 12, Todd. Do you have any last thoughts, or maybe a call to action for our audience if they want to learn more about what you're up to?

Speaker 2 37:56

Yeah, if they want to visit the realestatecommission.com my instagram handle is at better talk to Todd and at the real estate commission, and the show begins airing on October 12, on a next day streaming. And I think people, if they have interest in real estate, will find this show fascinating, if not at me at better, talk to Todd and tell me what you think of the show,

Keith Weinhold 38:20

Todd. It's been an engaging chat. Good luck on the TV show. It's been great having you here.

Todd Drowlette 38:25

I would love to come back anytime, and thank you so much for having me. I always appreciate your time. And I love the podcast,

Keith Weinhold 38:31

yeah, and I appreciate that Todd is a GRE fan. It's always great to have celebrity listeners like him, but to me, it's just as special to have you as a listener. What a wide ranging conversation between Todd Drolet and I today. It just shows the breadth of his knowledge. And Drolet is spelled D, R, O, W, l, e, t, t, e. You know, these prominent negotiators, including when we had Chris Voss here, they don't have this disposition of some vicious pit bull. Instead, they come off as reasonable. It doesn't feel hard nosed like using well placed silence that Todd talked about today, he's a pragmatist, and even comes off as likable. See if you can feel that, and video helps here, the video of our chat today might be on our get rich education YouTube channel by now, when you drive around, have you wondered about that? Before? You know that was super interesting about how coffee shops are on the am side of the road, meaning, as you're inbound toward a city center, they'd be on the right side a liquor store on the pm side. You've got to think about how humans interact with real estate. For example, a car wash that's best placed on the. Pm side of the road. I mean, most commuters, they don't leave extra time during their morning commute to get their car washed. They don't want to feel rushed. People are more likely to wash their car after work. So it'll be on the right side outbound, which is the pm side. And let's keep in mind too, that the US and Canada, for better or worse, have car centric cultures. So these things matter here more than they would in, say, the Netherlands, the location of commercial real estate. I mean, it comes down to tax maps and traffic counts and income levels in this AMPM side, and some want to be at a traffic light, you're going to get more traffic if it's already stopped or slowed down, is it across from a university or a hospital or a grocery anchor shopping center that makes it more desirable for a location? So really some interesting demographic and economic considerations there. Todd likes office real estate as return to Office. Policies help somewhat with absorption there. It is not accurate to say that office real estate is dead, perhaps permanently contracted. Is more like it, yes, the scenes from another popular show, the office with Dunder Mifflin in Scranton, Pennsylvania. Those scenes are diminished, but they are going to live on. Speaking of popular shows, check out our friend Todd Drolet in the real estate commission starting October 12 on A E, besides being entertained, it might make a daunting topic like commercial real estate feel somewhat more approachable for you. Big thanks to Todd Drolet. As far as listening to get rich education every week, what you've got to do on most platforms to ensure that you don't miss it is be sure to find the Follow button. Hitting follow will get it delivered until next week, I'm your host, Keith Weinhold, don't quit your Daydream.

Speaker 3 42:08

Keith Weinhold 42:31

You know, whenever you want the best written real estate and finance info, oh, geez, today's experience limits your free articles access, and it's got paywalls and pop ups and push notifications and cookies disclaimers, it's not so great. So then it's vital to place nice, clean, free content into your hands that adds no hype value to your life. That's why this is the golden age of quality newsletters, and I write every word of ours myself. It's got a dash of humor, and it's to the point because even the word abbreviation is too long, my letter usually takes less than three minutes to read. And when you start the letter, you also get my one hour fast real estate, video, course, it's all completely free. It's called the Don't quit your Daydream. Letter, it wires your mind for wealth, and it couldn't be easier for you to get it right now. Just text gre 266, 866, while it's on your mind, take a moment to do it right now. Text, gre 266, 866, you

Keith Weinhold 43:47

The preceding program was brought to you by your home for wealth, building, get richeducation.com

Direct download: GREepisode569_.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 4:00am EST

Mon, 25 August 2025

Keith discusses the impact of political rhetoric on mortgage rates, emphasizing the importance of central bank independence.

President of Ridge Lending Group and GRE Icon, Caeli Ridge, joins in to explain the benefits of 30-year mortgages over 15-year ones, advocating for extra principal payments to be reinvested rather than accelerating loan payoff.

They also cover the potential effects of Fannie and Freddie going public, predicting higher mortgage rates. Caeli Ridge elaborates on cross-collateralization strategies, highlighting the advantages of commercial blanket loans for real estate investors.

Resources:

RidgeLendingGroup.com or call 855-74-RIDGE

or e-mail: info@RidgeLendingGroup.com

Show Notes:

GetRichEducation.com/568

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567: Meet Future You: How These GRE Listeners Built Property Fortunes

Complete episode transcript:

Keith Weinhold 0:01

welcome to GRE I'm your host. Keith Weinhold, the President has called the Fed chair a dummy and worse. How does this all affect the future of mortgage rates? Also, I discuss 30 year versus 15 year loans. Can you bundle multiple properties into one loan? Then how Fannie and Freddie going public could permanently increase mortgage rates today on get rich education

Keith Weinhold 0:28

since 2014 the powerful get rich education podcast has created more passive income for people than nearly any other show in the world. This show teaches you how to earn strong returns from passive real estate investing in the best markets without losing your time being a flipper or landlord. Show Host Keith Weinhold writes for both Forbes and Rich Dad advisors and delivers a new show every week since 2014 there's been millions of listener downloads in 188 world nations. He has a list show guests and key top selling personal finance author Robert Kiyosaki, get rich education can be heard on every podcast platform, plus it has its own dedicated Apple and Android listener phone apps build wealth on the go with the get rich education podcast. Sign up now for the get rich education podcast, or visit get rich education.com

Speaker 1 1:14

You're listening to the show that has created more financial freedom than nearly any show in the world. This is get rich education.

Keith Weinhold 1:24

Welcome to GRE from Pawtucket, Rhode Island to Poughkeepsie, New York and across 188 nations worldwide. I'm your host. Keith weinholdin, this is get rich education, not to inflate a sense of self importance, but each episode is an even bigger deal than a New York Jets preseason football game. You might have thought you knew real estate until you listened to this show, from street speak to geek speak. I use it all to break down how with investment property, you don't have to live below your means. You can grow your means as we're discussing the mortgage landscape this week. You know, I recently had a bundle of my own single family rental homes transfer mortgage servicers from Wells Fargo over to Mr. Cooper. And that was easy. I didn't have to do anything. The automatic payments just automatically transferred over. And yes, Mr. Cooper, it's sort of a funny sounding name that you don't exactly see them putting the naming rights on stadiums out there, but the new servicer prominently wanted to point out the effect of me making extra $100 monthly principal payments and how much in interest that would save me over time, sort of suggesting that it would be a good idea for me to do so. Oh, as you know, like I've discussed extensively, extra principal pay down is a really poor use of your capital. It's a lot like how in the past, now you've probably seen it like I have, your mortgage company promotes you making bi weekly payments all year, so you'd effectively make some extra principal pay down each year. That way. Don't fall for it. Banks promote biweekly payments because it sounds borrower friendly, it encourages an earlier loan payoff. Well, that actually reduces lender risk and increases your risk. And the whole program can come with extra fees too. It just ties up more of your money in something that's unsafe, illiquid, and with a rate of return that's always zero, since that's exactly what home equity is. As we're about to talk mortgages with an expert today, I will be sure to surface that topic. We'll also talk about the housing market effect of a president firing a Fed chair. When you're living under the rule of a president that desperately and passionately wants lower interest rates, you've got to wonder what would happen if a president just had the power to go lower them himself, which is actually what most any president would want to do, but you almost don't have to wonder what would happen. You can just look at what actually did happen in Turkey. Now, yes, Turkey already did have an inflation problem, worse than us, for sure, but Turkish President Erdogan went ahead and lowered Turkey's interest rates despite persistent inflation. I mean, that's a situation where most would raise rates in order to combat inflation. Well, lowering rates like that soon resulted in substantially higher inflation to the tune of almost 60. Yes, six 0% per year before cooler heads prevailed and the Turkish government was forced to drastically raise rates. But it was too late. The damage was already done to the reputation of Turkey's economy and its everyday citizens and consumers. I mean, that was a painful, real world example of how critical central bank independence is. You've also got to ask yourself a question here, do you really want to live in the type of economy where we would need a bunch of rate cuts? Because when rate cuts happen, it usually results from the fact that people are no longer employed, or we're in a recession, or financial markets are really unstable. So there are certainly worse maladies out there than where we are today, which is with moderate inflation, pretty strong employment and interest rates that are actually a little below historic levels. I mean, that is not so bad. Before we talk both long term mortgage lessons and more nascent mortgage trends today coming up on future episodes of the show here, a lot of info and resources to help you build wealth as usual. Also an A E TELEVISION star of a real estate reality show will make his debut here on GRE.

Keith Weinhold 6:24

Hey, do you like or even live by any of the enduring GRE mantras, like, Don't live below your means, grow your means, or financially free, beats debt free, or even, don't quit your Daydream. Check out our shop. You can own merch with sayings like that on them, or simply with our GRE logo on shirts and hats and mugs. And I don't really make any income from it. The merch is sold at near cost, and it actually took a fair bit of our team's time to put that together for you. So check out the GRE merch. You can find it at shop.getricheducation.com that's shop.getricheducation.com

Keith Weinhold 7:18

today we're talking to the longtime president of ridge lending group. They specialize in providing income property loans to real estate investors like you, and she's also a long time real estate investor herself. I've shared with you before that ridge is where I get my own loans. They've worked with 10s of 1000s of real estate investors, not just primary residence owners, but real estate investors as well as homeowners all over the country, and at this point, she's like a GRE icon, a fixture regularly with us since 2015 Hey, welcome back to get rich education the inimitable Chaley Ridge,

Caeli Ridge 7:54

ooh, Mr. Keith Weinhold, thank you, sir. So good to see you, my friend. Thanks for having me

Keith Weinhold 8:00

opening up that thesaurus tab right about now, I think maybe JAYLEE, why don't we have the chat everyone wants to have? Let's discuss interest rates, starting with the vitriol from Trump to Powell has reached new heights. This year, Trump has called Powell a numbskull, Mr. Too late, a real dummy, a complete moron, a fool and a major loser, among other names. And you know, at times, I've seen Realtors even blasting Jerome Powell for not cutting rates. Well, the Fed doesn't directly control mortgage rates, and it's also not the Fed's job to boost Realtors summer sales. It's to protect the long term stability of the US economy. Tell us your thoughts.

Caeli Ridge 8:48

So this is a rather complicated topic, okay, and there's a lot that under the hood that goes into how a long term mortgage bond interest rate is going to go up or going to go down. As you said, it's not necessarily just the Fed and the fed fund rate, which, by the way, for those that are not familiar with this, the fed fund rate is the intra daily trading rate between banks. So while there is a connection between that and that of the 30 year long term fixed rate mortgage, they are not the same thing. And in fact, statistically, I believe I read this last week, the last three fed fund rate reductions did the opposite to long term rates, right? So we went the other direction. So please be clear that the viral, as you say, of President Trump and what his opinions are about Mr. Powell and his decisions to keep that fed fund rate unchanged for the last several meetings that they've had, I think, is more of a distraction, but that's another conversation overall. I would say that, is he too late? Is he right on time? You know, there's so much data and so many data points that they're looking at, and there's this thing in the industry called a Lag that, in truth, they're not getting the actual data points that they need real time. It's lagging, so the data that's coming out to them today isn't going to be what's relevant and necessary to make changes tomorrow, next month and next week. Most recently, you probably saw in the news the BLS Bureau of Labor and Statistics and the jobs report came in far under what the expectation was. So that might have been the catalyst. I think that will drive Powell and group to reduce that is the overwhelming expectation that the fed fund rate is going to come down by how much. We don't know. Secondary markets are already baking that in, by the way. So when we talk about long term interest rates, I'm starting to see some changes on the day to day. I get access to that stuff, and I'm looking at it daily, the ticker tape of where the treasury bonds and things are. So I'm starting to see some slight improvement to interest rates in preparation of that market expectation, interest rate on the fed fund level will probably reduce. But I think overall, Keith that the Fed is in a really difficult position, because when you think about what really is going to drive the fed fund rate, and then potentially the long term rate, is counterintuitive to what most people or consumers expect, right? They think if the fed fund rate reduces by a quarter of a percentage point, then a long term 30 year fixed should probably reduce by the same amount. It does not go hand in hand like that. Now, while there are trends right, that doesn't happen that way, and more often than not, the worse our economy is doing, the better a 30 year interest rate will be. So in my industry, I'm kind of always playing on the fence, thinking I don't want anything bad for our country and the economy. However, the worse it does, the better interest rates are going to become. And if you've been paying attention, the economy is in decent shape. We're not doing that bad. Inflation is still up, so the metrics that they're using to kind of gage and predict that lag and where we're going to be are not in line to say that interest rates are going to drop a half or a point or a point and a half in the next year to 18 months. Those signs are not out there for me. All of that said, I know that interest rate is top of mind for I mean, I'm on the phone all day long. I like that part of my job where I'm still interfacing with investors on day to day. Big chunk of my day is spent talking to clients, and that is one of the top questions, probably one of the first questions that come out of their mouth, where interest rates? What are interest rates? And what I have sort of started to really form and say to that question is, if interest rates are the catalyst to your success in real estate, you probably need to do a little bit more research, because interest rates should not be the make or break for your success. Well, as a real estate investor

Keith Weinhold 12:45

the Fed has a dual mandate of maximum employment and stable prices. Inflation, though still somewhat elevated, has stayed about the same the past few months. History shows us that the Fed is more comfortable with inflation floating up than they are with suppressed employment levels. To your point about recent reports about us not adding many jobs, and the Fed being concerned about that, the translation for those that don't know is, if the job market is weak, lowering rates, which is what increasingly people think they tend to do later this year. Lowering rates helps encourage businesses. It's more likely that businesses will borrow and expand and hire more people. Therefore, if rates are low now, whether that translates into a lower mortgage rate or not, by lowering that fed funds rate? Yes, there is that positive correlation. Generally, the lower the Fed funds rate goes, the lower mortgage rates tend to go although that isn't always the case. To your point. Shailene, late last year, there were three Fed funds rate cuts, and mortgage rates actually went up, which is somewhat of an aberration that usually doesn't happen that way, but that's the environment we're in. Most people think Fed rate cuts are coming later this year.

Caeli Ridge 14:04

Yeah. And I would say, you know, the other thing too, when we talk about the pressure that the Fed is under right now, specifically, Powell, he's being attacked, fine, and whether I agree or disagree, really important for listeners to understand that the indifference that the Fed is supposed to have right bipartisan, it's not supposed to have a dog in that fight. If it did the calamity, I think what would happen economically in this country would be devastating if other economic powers were to see that our particular financial institutions are swayed one way or another. Politically, that would be devastating to us. So I think Powell has done a decent job at staying the course. He's continued to do what he says, says what he does. So so far, I'm okay. Is he late to reduce rates? I don't know that I'm qualified to say that, maybe. But at the same time, I think that his impartiality has been consistent, and that for that part of it, I'm. Grateful

Keith Weinhold 15:00

for those who don't understand if Trump just told Powell what to do and Powell followed Trump's orders, how does that devastate the economy?

Caeli Ridge 15:09

It shows partiality to or Fieldy to one particular party, right? It's not an independent institution where financial policy quantitative easing, quantitative tightening, all of those different things that are necessary to keep the pistons pumping. It isn't it's very specific to Fieldy and the leader of telling based on potentially ego or other elements that have not a lot to do with fiduciary responsibility.

Keith Weinhold 15:37

If Powell did everything Trump said, I feel like we would have negative interest rates right now

Caeli Ridge 15:43

that could be a problem, especially if the economy and inflation is on the rise, and then you get the tariffs. I mean, there's so much layering to this. I mean, we could go on and on about it, but overall, let me close with this. I think that interest rates are probably on the run, if I had to guess. Now, there's all kinds of variables that could make that statement untrue, but overall, in the next year to two years, I do think we'll see some relief in interest rates, barring any major catastrophe. But again, investors, if your success, if you're tying your real estate portfolio, your real estate investing, whatever modality you're interested in, if you're tying that to an interest rate, and there's a certain number that you have ethereal in your mind, you're going to lose your success in real estate. Interest rate is a component of it, but it should not be tied to your success or failure. You should be able to do the math and look at the differences in real estate opportunities, investment, whether it be long term, short term, midterm, single family, two to four appreciation, cash flow, all those things should be considered, and you will find adequate returns independent of an interest rate. If you're diversifying that way

Keith Weinhold 16:49

there is more evidence that Americans have warmed up and gotten somewhat used to normal mortgage rates. This normalization of mortgage rates, they are pretty close to their historic norms. In fact, a recent housing sentiment survey done by turbo home found that in q1 of this year, 41% of homeowners surveyed said that a 6% mortgage rate was the highest they would accept on their next purchase. Right that was back in q1 today, up from 41%, 52% of respondents now say a 6% mortgage rate is the highest that they would accept. Evidence that people are warming up and normalizing this.

Caeli Ridge 17:30

The other thing too is the pandemic rates. Right? That's been a very hard shell to crack. The people that got these two and 3% interest rates during 2020 2021, part of 22 they're really reticent to let those go, and I think that they're doing themselves a disservice as a result. If you can get a second lean HELOC, okay, fine, but overall, if you're just going to let that untapped equity sit, it's going to be to your disadvantage. If you have any desire to increase your portfolio and your long term financial stability and wealth

Keith Weinhold 17:59

you're listening to get rich education. Our guest is Ridge lending Group President Cheley, Ridge much more when we come back, including 30 year versus 15 year loans. Which one is better and more things that the administration is doing to shake up the mortgage market. I'm your host. Keith Weinhold.

Keith Weinhold 18:15

the same place where I get my own mortgage loans is where you can get yours. Ridge lending group and MLS, 42056, they provided our listeners with more loans than anyone because they specialize in income properties. They help you build a long term plan for growing your real estate empire with leverage. Start your prequel and even chat with President Cheley Ridge personally while it's on your mind, start at Ridge lendinggroup.com. That's Ridge lendinggroup.com.

Keith Weinhold 18:46

Rick Sharga 19:58

this is Rick sharga housing market. Intelligence Analyst, listen to get rich education with Keith Weinhold, and don't quit your Daydream.

Keith Weinhold 20:05

Welcome back to get rich Education. I'm your host, Keith Weinhold. We're talking with a familiar guest this week. That's Ridge lending Group President, Caeli. Ridge wealth is built through compound leverage faster than compound interest. And leverage means using loans. I think most everyone the first time in their life they look at loan amortization tables and learn things like, oh, with a 15 year loan, you pay substantially less interest, perhaps hundreds of 1000s of dollars less interest with a 15 year loan and its lower mortgage rate than you do with a 30 year loan and its higher mortgage rate. But a lot of people don't take that next step and look that Oh, rather than paying down my home loan with extra principal payments, if I just invested the difference, I would be substantially better off down the road. So in a lot of cases, the more sophisticated investor chooses that longer loan duration, the 30 year. That's the way I see it. What do you see? Most of your prefer there.

Caeli Ridge 21:12

It's one of my favorite topics to cover, because there's quite a few layers that I think can all connect. If an individual wants to pay less in interest very easily, I'm going to strenuously advise them to take a 30 year over a 15 year and just simply apply the difference. So let's just start with the applicable version of 15 versus 30 and how it can benefit or harm. Because this is what a lot of times people that go for the 15 year and wanting to pay less in interest. Don't understand, and it's never been delivered to them in a reasonable way, I guess. So just looking at those two, and then we'll get to the strategy of potentially reinvesting those dollars elsewhere. But just look at a 30 year and a 15 year. I am a massive deterrent against a shorter term amortization. I hate a shorter term amortization, because all that's going to do to the individual is limit their ability to qualify later on down the road. And the reason for that is, is that the shorter term, as you had described, is going to yield a higher monthly payment. So when we pull credit for an individual, that's a higher monthly payment that the debt to income ratio has to support, when in fact, if we simply just look at the two side by side, 15 year and a 30 year equal, equal loan sizes. The 15 year is going to have a lower interest rate. It's true, but the amortization is obviously half the amount. We've gone from 360 months, 30 years to 180 months, 15 years. So the payment obviously is going to be much, much higher if you take the payment difference between those two mortgage products and apply it with a 30 year fixed payment. Let's just call it 500 bucks a month, whatever the number is, and you are disciplined to send that extra 500 bucks every single month with your 30 year fixed mortgage payment. You will cross the finish line in 15.4 years, I think, is the average when you run the amortization, so you'll pay a few extra months worth of interest, but whatever, you'll never pay the higher interest that the 30 year has locked at because you've accelerated the payoff of the debt so quickly, and you've maximized your debt to income ratio and future qualifications never take the shorter term amortization. It is to your greatest disadvantage. I hate them. That's part one. Did you have a comment? I can see that your wheels are spinning.

Keith Weinhold 23:24

That is a great answer. If you get the 30 year loan instead of the 15 if you apply an extra principal payment, whatever it would be, call it 500 plus dollars, that you will kill off that loan, that 30 year loan in something like 15.4 years. Yes, and you'll have the lower payment amount for your qualification, going forward, you'll have more flexibility in your life. That's great. I didn't realize the difference 15.4 versus 15 was that small? That's a great takeaway.

Caeli Ridge 23:50

Yeah, absolutely. And the other piece, you kind of just hit on it, the individual's feet are not held to the fire at that higher payment. So let's say it's a rental, okay, whatever. It goes vacant for a month, or a couple months, God forbid, or whatever may be happening. You now get to choose. You are not obligated at that higher monthly payment. You can say, Okay, this month, I'm not going to pay the extra. I don't da, da, da. It's all within your control. So you're killing like four birds with one stone. I really prefer the 30 year amortization for all those reasons. So now let's take it and move into how I believe, and I agree with your philosophy, taking those dollars and applying them, because when we talk about mortgage interest, especially on investment property, okay, it's probably a slightly different conversation when we're talking about somebody's primary residence, home, but for an investment property to take that difference and apply it toward another investment, because the interest remember, you guys, we're investors. We want that Schedule E deduction, that interest deduction, as money goes a 30 year fixed mortgage, even today, as interest rates are elevated beyond the two and three percents that people somehow fixated on, that that's where interest rates should just be forever. You've got Mass. Amounts of interest deduction, so you're paying less in taxes. For that reason, there's so many reasons to stretch out that mortgage on an investment property versus extinguishing that debt, not to mention, you want to constantly be harvesting equity, ideally, pulling cash out. Borrowed funds are non taxable, deploying them, but then taking that extra cash flow and stockpiling it for another investment, whether that just be the down payment or for other things. I just think there's so many better places that those funds can go to produce more wealth than accelerating the payoff of that debt that's benefiting you, from a tax perspective, and several other ways. There's lots of other ways to apply that money. I

Keith Weinhold 25:43

I often ask, why accelerate the payoff on a, say, 7% mortgage interest rate loan, when instead you can take those savings, reinvest them into other real estate, where it sounds preposterous on its face to think of the rate of return that you can get from an income property, but when you add up all the five ways you're paid, appreciation, cash flow, loan pay down, made by the tenant, tax benefits and the inflation profiting benefit on the long term fixed interest rate debt, a return of 20% plus is not out of the question at all. So if it's 20, why would you pay off extra on a seven? That's 13 points of arbitrage that you could gain there by not aggressively paying down a property and instead making a down payment on another income property. Chaeli, when it comes to these type of questions and accelerating a payoff, why do banks seem to encourage that you make bi weekly payments rather than monthly payments, therefore accelerating your principal pay down.

Caeli Ridge 26:42

I'm not sure the reason behind that. I don't know that I've even seen a lot of that from my lens and my perspective. It's definitely not something I ever comment or preach on. But the overall, what's happening there when you do it the bi weekly, so instead of making $1,000 at the first of the month, you make 500 and then 500 right, middle of them on first of the month. What's happening there is, because of the way the annual calendar goes, it ends up being an extra payment per year, right? I think that's the math. Is, when you do it that way, you end up making an extra payment per year, so you can accelerate. And there's you're not doing anything different, necessarily, to in your cash flow, etc. So I don't think there's anything wrong with it. I don't know what the benefit is to the institution that would in communicate that to its consumer. Yeah,

Keith Weinhold 27:27

Yeah, it ends up being 26 bi weekly payments, which has the effect of making 13 monthly payments in a 12 month year, accelerating your pay down. In my experience, it seems that banks encourage this. They contact borrowers. They've contacted me in the past, laying out a welcome mat. Hey, would you like this plan here? And in my mind, accelerating the payoff. We already talked about how that's typically not a good investment. The more you know about the trade off between loans and equity, really, I'm transferring more of the risk onto myself and less they're onto the bank when I accelerate my payoff. So I agree. I'm not interested in doing that at all.

Caeli Ridge 28:06

You know, maybe Keith, it could be, because I people talk about this a lot, those people, and let's say that there are a group of individuals that might benefit. Let's say they're in phase three, right? They're well into retirement. They just want to start paying off. They're not maybe investing anymore. They just want to leave that legacy, perhaps, or whatever their circumstances are, and they don't want to take additional capital and apply it to the principal and lock up those funds and make them illiquid. So maybe, just as an easy sidebar, they just make two payments month versus one. I get a lot of people asking that question. I mean, over the years, I know that like at the closing table, we'll have clients say, Hey, is the servicer going to be set up to accept bi weekly payments? And a lot of times they don't like SLS. I mean, there's a lot of servicers out there that will not accept or don't have the infrastructure to collect those bi weekly so maybe just as a consumer desire out there, the servicers have gotten wise to it, and they just offer it. I can't think of the reason behind why they would promote that to their database. I don't know.

Keith Weinhold 29:09

Another question that I hear quite often, and probably do as well there is about bundling multiple properties into one loan. Can you tell us about that?

Caeli Ridge 29:20

Yeah, that's called cross collateralization. So we're taking residential property, okay, and putting them into a commercial blanket loan. So any combination of single family, up to four unit, five Plex and above is now considered commercial. So it's got to be single family, condo, duplex, triplex, fourplex, right? It's residential property, and they're taking any combination of that and putting it into one blanket loan, cross collateralizing it. Now, I believe the most incentivized way or desire to want to do this is probably for two reasons. One, to free up golden tickets, right? Golden tickets are those Fannie Freddie loans that we talk about a lot. There are 10 of these per qualified individual, if. If someone has maxed out their golden tickets, let's say they've got 12, 1314, properties, they could take five or 10 or 13, whatever the number, and put them into a commercial blanket cross collateralized loan, as long as it's non recourse. That means no personal guarantee is attached to it. The rule per golden ticket will free up all those spaces. So usually this applies to an individual that has a portfolio that has stabilized. This will usually work when the portfolio has had a couple of years to make sure that you've got your consistent tenants and anything that may come up, repairs, maintenance, et cetera, stabilized portfolios and then putting them into that cross collateralization, because the terms are not going to be the same as just a 30 year fixed Okay, especially if you're going to be looking to take cash out and harvest equity that way, that may be a real opportune time to borrow funds. Borrowed funds are non taxable once again, pull the cash out, put it into a non recourse loan. You've got half a million dollars of capital now that you can then go and get a whole new set of golden tickets for expanding your portfolio. So that's something that we focus on for individuals that have maybe maxed out of that that conventional landscape and or are looking to scale and acquire more properties, but they don't want to necessarily look at some of the DSCR loans. They want to get back into the Fannie Freddie box.

Keith Weinhold 31:22

Yeah, so someone could bundle and get cash out simultaneously, potentially, is there anything else that qualifies or disqualifies one for bundling many loans into one like this?

Caeli Ridge 31:35

It's a commercial underwrite. So they should be aware of that. Now, certainly, we're looking at the individual typically in those loans, the underwriting of those loans, the individual's liquidity and credit are most what we're focusing on, but it's about the property in the portfolio, DSCR, that debt service coverage ratio is a big factor. So we're looking at the income against the monthly expense. Generally. That's going to be the principal, interest, tax and insurance on a commercial basis, they throw in the maintenance, vacancy, et cetera, averages. So you want to see, generally speaking, about 1.2 on those when you divide the incomes and the expenses and then otherwise, yeah, LTV might be a little bit restricted on something like that, 70% usually, maybe you can get as much as 75 if you've got a really strong portfolio. But otherwise, for you, individually, liquidity, some liquidity there, and good credit is what is important. As long as the portfolio is operating at a gain, then you're good to go.

Keith Weinhold 32:32

Yeah, that cross collateralization could be really attractive. Well, Chile, we've been in this presidential administration that has shaken things up like few, if any, prior administrations have. One of those things is that they have pushed for cryptocurrency holdings to be recognized as assets in mortgage loan qualification. Now that's something that would probably pend approval by the FHFA and critics cite volatility. I mean, there's been a pattern where every few years, Bitcoin drops 80% before rebounding, and I'm not exaggerating, and that has happened a number of times. And another administration desire is this potential Fannie Mae Freddie Mac merger, or an IPO an initial public offering. Can you tell us what that's about

Caeli Ridge 33:21

let's start with the crypto first, whether or not this, this gets through the Congress and or FHFA, however, that that develops and becomes actualized, that may be different than what the lending institutions decide to take a risk on, right the allowance of that crypto so it even if it's approved and they say that, Yes, that we can use this for asset depletion or reserve requirements, or whatever it may be. I don't know necessarily that you're going to see a lot of the lending institutions jump on board. I think they'll probably have overlays. It's just kind of the layering of risk on the crypto side to ensure that the asset and the underwrite is less likely to default. I don't see a lot of lending institutions that are probably going to jump on that bandwagon immediately. That's probably going to need more time and consistency with that particular asset class. That's the crypto thing. So that's a TBD on the other side, we're talking about conservatorship. So post, oh 809, right? The housing crash and Dodd Frank, if you've not heard of those names before, they're just the last names of individuals that that rewrote that sweeping legislation across all sectors of finance. Once we saw housing and lending implode upon each other, Fannie Freddie, as a result, went into conservatorship. Now what they're saying, what the administration is saying is, is that they are going to say that the implicit guarantee actually, let me back up really, really quickly. I will not take too much time on this so Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac The reason that those products are the golden tickets, as we call them, and we're just focused on investor products right now is because highest leverage, lowest interest rate. And why is it like that? That's because it has a United States government guarantee. Against default. So this mortgage backed security is bundled up with other mortgage backed securities and sold, bought and sold on the secondary market to investors, foreign and domestic. Right? Investors that are buying mortgage backed securities, they know that that paper is secure. If it defaults. We've got the United States government that's giving us a guarantee against default. So that's why it's such a secure investment. If we come out of conservatorship, technically, that would normally mean that you may not have that implicit guarantee. However, the Trump administration and those that are in that space, FHFA, Pulte and all those guys, they're saying that that guarantee should still apply if that happens, if that's how they release this, I don't see anything wrong if they do it without all of the volatility. You know, let's use the tariffs as an example. It was all over the place. It was there, and then it was gone. It was up, and then it was down. It was 30% then it was two right? It was it was just so much, and the markets really had a hard time with it. And as a result, I think a lot of people lost massive amounts of wealth in the stock market because of that. So I think that there is some real benefits to getting the Fannie, Freddie, the GSCs, government sponsored enterprises, out of conservatorship. I think it just opens up for more fair trade in the market. But they have to do it the right way, and as long as they keep that guarantee, that government guarantee, and then they take their time and apply the steps appropriately, I think it could be a good thing, ultimately, for the consumer. Now, if they don't, it could really have devastating impacts, and I think it could even raise interest interest rates higher. I know Trump and folks don't want that, so I think they're mindful of it. That's just kind of the take I get. But we'll see,

Keith Weinhold 36:42

yeah, because that's my preeminent thought with this. Shaylee, if Fannie and Freddie come out of conservatorship, and there's no government backstop on those loans, it seems like the banks are exposed to more risk, and consequently would have to compensate for that, potentially with a higher interest

Caeli Ridge 36:57

rate. You said it better than I did. Yes, I get too technical when I go down those rabbit holes. That's exactly right. I do not think that they will go down that that path without that implicit guarantee. I expect, if this thing comes to fruition, I expect that that guarantee will be there.

Keith Weinhold 37:13

Yeah, it does seem likely, with as much administration concern as there is about the housing market and the level of mortgage rates and all kinds of interest rates out there. Well, JAYLEE, this has been a great, wide ranging conversation all the way from strategy to what the administration is doing in interfacing with the mortgage market. If someone wants to learn more about you and your products, tell us what you offer, including your very popular all in one loan there at ridge.

Caeli Ridge 37:41

Ooh, thank you for teeing that up. Yeah, especially right now, when people have a lot of concern about interest rates right or wrong, the all in one is a very unique product that removes that fear. It's a way that investors, especially can take control of their equity, pay less in interest, and sometimes hundreds of 1000s of dollars less in interest, while maintaining equity and flexibility and liquidity. Cannot say enough about this product. The all in one. First lien HELOC is my very favorite. For the right individuals, we've talked about it many, many times. They can find us talking about it all over YouTube. You and I have quite a few conversations about that. So that and so much more, guys. So the all in one, you've got the Fannie Freddie's, our debt service ratio products, our bank statement loans, our asset depletion loans, ground up construction bridge loans for fix and flip or fix and hold. We really run the gamut there in terms of loan product diversity. There's very little we can't do for real estate investors. So we're uniquely qualified in that space

Keith Weinhold 38:36

and you offer loans in nearly all 50 states. Now tell us more and how one can get a hold of your company. Yes, we are

Caeli Ridge 38:44

licensed in 49 states. The only state we're not licensed in residentially is New York. We can still do commercial there. But to reach us, you can find us on the web, Ridge lendinggroup.com you can email us info@ridgelendinggroup.com and feel free to call us at 855, 74 Ridge 855-747-4343,

Keith Weinhold 39:04

I'm so familiar with all those avenues because, again, that's where I get my own loans myself. Chaley Ridge has been valuable as always. Thanks so much for coming back onto the show.

Caeli Ridge 39:13

Thanks, Keith.

Keith Weinhold 39:21

A lot of experts believe that stripping Fannie and Freddie's public backing and taking them public, yeah, that that will increase mortgage rates. See, besides there being more risk, like we touched on there during the interview, Fannie and Freddie would face strong incentives to increase profitability, to make an IPO appealing to potential investors, that's just another reason that would probably increase mortgage rates. But if you're the type that truly champions free marketeerism, then the government would get out of Fannie and Freddie and let them IPO, and you would want. To see that happen now you as an investor, you probably resonate with the fact that rather than having to methodically and even painfully save money for your next property, instead you can just borrow funds, tax free, out of your existing property, and that way, you're using more of other people's money, the bank's money, in this case, and less of your own. Similarly, if you avoid aggressive principal pay down well, you would just retain those funds in the first place. As you can see, Chely is really good at taking a deep look at what you've got to work with and helping you lay out a strategy that might make sense, keeping in mind and evaluating your cash, cash flow, equity DTI and loan to value ratios, they offer free 30 minute strategy sessions. You can book one right there on their homepage at Ridge lendinggroup.com Until next week, I'm your host. Keith Weinhold, don't quit. Sure. Daydream.

Speaker 2 41:07

Keith Weinhold 41:31

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Keith Weinhold 42:47

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Mon, 18 August 2025

Keith discusses the recent executive order by the White House, which could bring Americans closer to retirement plan access for real estate, private equity, and crypto.

He also interviews two listeners:

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566: Your Listener Questions - Bonus Depreciation, Realtor Fee Changes, Down Payments, Outrageous Inflation

Complete episode transcript:

Keith, welcome to GRE. I'm your host. Keith Weinhold, it's an episode focused on you as we feature two GRE listener guests today. See how they've leveraged listening to this show into real world, real estate investing action then a property opportunity to announce to you on get rich education.

Keith Weinhold 0:27

Since 2014 the powerful get rich education podcast has created more passive income for people than nearly any other show in the world. This show teaches you how to earn strong returns from passive real estate investing in the best markets without losing your time being a flipper or landlord. Show Host Keith Weinhold writes for both Forbes and Rich Dad advisors and delivers a new show every week since 2014 there's been millions of listener downloads in 188 world nations. He has a list show guests and key top selling personal finance author Robert Kiyosaki, get rich education can be heard on every podcast platform, plus it has its own dedicated Apple and Android listener phone apps build wealth on the go with the get rich education podcast. Sign up now for the get rich education podcast, or visit get rich education.com

Speaker 1 1:12

You're listening to the show that has created more financial freedom than nearly any show in the world. This is get rich education.

Keith Weinhold 1:22

Welcome to GRE from Mannheim, Germany, to Mannheim, Pennsylvania and across 188 nations worldwide. You're listening to get rich Education. I'm your host. Keith Weinhold, you probably grew up playing the board game Monopoly. Well, imagine playing Monopoly and never buying an asset that generates income. What if you just went around the board collecting $200 giving your money to the rich and trying to stay out of jail. Does that sound ridiculous? Well, that's how most people live their lives. We don't do that here at GRE we add real assets that pay us while we own them, and more and more people can potentially soon get exposure to these asset types. The White House recently reported that Trump made an executive order that is bringing Americans closer to getting retirement plan access to real estate, private equity and crypto. I mean, think about what that could do to overall real estate demand, pushing up prices. It could make the industry boom. Sort of how the advent of 401, KS helped the stock market boom. Also, another development is that in order to qualify for mortgage loans, crypto could soon be used as an asset in your mortgage qualification. That's per the FHFA, and that's what they're moving toward. Now there's been a lot of novel information and developments and stories like that this year, as we're in a presidential administration that shakes up all kinds of status quo policies, from foreign wars to tariffs to us real estate. Journalistically, it's important to be accurate and avoid misinformation and false news as the AI era is near its nascency. Still, you have got to be increasingly cautious about where you get your information. I got a stark reminder of this recently, now former presidential candidate and HHS Secretary, Robert F Kennedy Jr and I recently did a stair climber workout together at a gym. You probably know that RFK Jr leads the MaHA movement make America healthy again, which I support, and much like me, he's an avid fitness enthusiast, and that's the kind of stuff that we talk about. Well, there are now some photos of RFK, JR And I out there exercising together, something that's okay with me. I'm even proud of that. I shared one of those on my social media myself. He and I don't talk politics or vaccines or even diet or just exercise enthusiasts. That's what we talk about. That's our common ground. Well, a Facebook post of RFK JR and I exercising together, and here's where the terribly irresponsible misinformation comes in. Meta AI has a one touch link from there to what they call Weinhold and RFK Jr collaborations. Here's how it reads. I'll read it all word for word, and so much of it is false. Keith Weinhold and Robert F Kennedy Jr have a close friendship that has garnered significant attention. Keith Weinhold, a businessman and podcaster, has been a vocal supporter of Kennedy's work and advocacy their friendship has been built around shared interests and values, including their passion for environmental issues and their skepticism of mainstream narratives. Weinhold has often featured Kennedy as a guest on his podcast, where they discuss issues ranging from vaccine safety to corporate accountability. Together, they have collaborated on various projects, including the promotion of Kennedy's book the real Anthony Fauci. Their friendship has been subject to scrutiny, with some critics accusing them of spreading misinformation. That's the end of the meta AI page. What in the world? How do they come up with this stuff? The only shared interest we've collaborated on is fitness at the gym. And you as listener know that he's never been a guest on this show. Now, if his expertise were real estate investing or economics, well, then I might invite him on. How does meta AI come up with this stuff about vaccines and Fauci I mean, that is so far away from my area of focus. I haven't weighed in on any of that stuff. My gosh, this meta AI page, it is published work for all to see, and it is about 90% false. So my point is, there's a lot of information out there about everything from real estate investing to endangered sharks to cooking tomato soup. Be careful. Pay attention to information that has cited reliable sources. And AI in its current fledgling stage, it really muddies the picture. One thing that might help is that open AI's chatgpt Five, which recently debuted, it is better. It's an improvement. For example, if it does not know the answer to a question that you have, it will tell you that it does not know the answer, instead of making up something fake just to give some sort of answer like previous versions. Did we need more of that coming up here on the show. In future weeks, we have vital monolog material from me, as always prominent guests, new guests and repeat guests. Last week, I answered your listener questions here on air, you can always write in with your questions or comments at get rich education.com/contact this week, it's interviewees like you, as I talk to the first of two listener guests.

Keith Weinhold 8:17

He has been an avid GRE listener for a few years, and says that he shifted from bigger pockets and other content over almost exclusively to get rich education for real estate and market content. He uses the principles taught through GRE to focus on his niche, which is residential assisted living, R, A, l, investments at the single family home level, he owns two single family units that also have ADUs and a handful of Ral units, which has helped him reach his goal of replacing his military income with property cash flow. He is a husband, father of three boys and active duty Navy officer currently stationed in Virginia Beach, Virginia, a buy and hold investor. He began investing in real estate in 2017and now owns a portfolio that includes rental properties in San Diego, five Ral homes in Phoenix and GP stakes in two Ral syndications. He is also the founder of open range capital in the Ral room, there are two platforms dedicated to scaling the Ral model. Again, that's residential assisted living, scaling those across the US. And when he's not serving or investing, you can find him on the lacrosse field, playing, basketball, training, Jiu Jitsu or chasing down any kind of competition. Hey, welcome to GRE. Luke frazell,

Luke Frizzell 9:37

Keith, thank you for the introduction. Appreciate that very kind. And once I started investing in 2017 I got started with the bigger pockets train, and pretty avidly listened to their podcast and taking some action on my own, I actually found your podcast and your website, and it was so much more efficient in the information that I needed to hear. I. Know, and the the time that I could spend actually paying attention to real estate news and the important things that I need to be paying attention to as an investor, that I exclusively and paying attention through your email list and through your podcast, it's always great information. So I appreciate being on and thanks for having me. Keith,

Keith Weinhold 10:18

thanks. I try to keep things nutrient dense around here, Frizzell is spelled F, R, I, z, E, L, L, and look, I know your investing philosophy is strongly influenced by one of GRE most seminal and central mantras, and something that the world first learned right here on this show back in 2015 real estate pays five ways. Tell us about that.

Luke Frizzell 10:42

That is one of the best just mantras for whenever I'm talking to people about getting into real estate, yes. And I literally say, what the five ways that real estate pays, because that's how I heard about it was through you. And I was like, That is such a perfect illustration of why this beats, let's say, the stock market, or why this beats a lot of other investment vehicles, because you're not just getting the cash flow, which is a huge reason why people get involved in it, and that's actually the first thing that I'm scrubbing for whenever I'm looking for an investment. But of course, you're hoping for the appreciation, which I really just count as the cherry on top. And if I'm looking at a market from the macro lens, I'm making sure that the the city is growing, the jobs are coming in, there's a decent population, and at a macro level, that's the first thing you need to do before you dig into a city to make sure it's good to go. When appreciation happens, it's probably because those things are all in the right spot. And you're you're picking the right neighborhood, but just, you know, leverage, and being able to buy with 20% of the full amount down, that's a huge piece. And just the hedge against inflation that you get through a loan all the ways, I'm probably missing one, but that's one of the first things that I say when somebody's on the fence on whether they get into real estate investing is, Hey, these are the five ways I learned it from Keith's website, and I'll point them to you guys. That's how I found residential assisted living was really Yes, I had been an investor in San Diego and had great success there with, you know, the buy, rehab, rent, refinance, repeat, the burn method, and putting those five ways into practice. But what I really wanted, as I was looking towards getting out of the military in a few years was more the cash flow piece. So that's what drew me to Phoenix. I actually heard a podcast where somebody was talking about this strategy where you buy a home and you lease it out to a senior care operator and they are paying two to three times the lease amount that you would pay or get from a single family rental, and yet you're also getting all the benefits of real estate. So it seemed pretty hands off, which checked the box for me on that since I was working an active duty job, and then it was also very high, high cash flow. So that's what got me into residential assisted living, and has kept me into it, and I've brought a couple partners into what we're doing, and really bringing my partners in is brought us so much further than I would have ever gone myself. The core tenets of five ways real estate pays has definitely influenced my thoughts as an investor and everything that I've done

Keith Weinhold 13:16

yeah, I can't believe more people don't talk about the compelling why for real estate investing? And I think real estate pays five ways. Is the most efficient and comprehensive way of doing that for sure, when it comes to Property selection and adding to your portfolio, like you touched on, I know that you like to say that you don't chase doors, you chase quality, and you have sort of this peace of mind with intentional investing over scale. Can you tell us about that?

Luke Frizzell 13:43

That's a great question. It was really a forcing function that formed my investor mindset was it has to be quality, because I don't have the time as somebody who's doing a full time job that's very time intensive, and sometimes I'm leaving for months on end before I come back and in my spouse works in something completely separately, so she doesn't have time to manage properties and things like that. It was forced upon me to be very efficient with what I invested in, and my wife was not. She, just like me, didn't grow up learning about real estate investing, so they had to really hit bang for buck whenever we made that first investment in order to buy her or get her buy in on it. And when that first rental check came in, I was able to take her out to a sushi dinner and say it was paid for by our our tenants. And that was kind of the first buy in piece Got it, got us in there. But, yeah, I really Chase quality. And we were very fortunate, and got a little bit lucky with the timing of our properties in California with covid and the interest rates we bought to early on in 2017 and then in 2020 before interest rates started going up, before prices got crazy out there. And those have done really well for. For us. But as interest rates continued to rise and as prices on homes continued to rise, I had to keep the efficient piece in the back of my mind. That's when I heard about the senior care investing number one. I was like, hey, yeah, the demographics, it makes sense. There's so many, that demographic of seniors, the boomer generation, reaching, you know, 80 years old, and coming to that time of life where they need care that is not going down. The medical system as flawed as it can be in our country. You know, people are living longer, and we need to house them, and people don't want to stay in a big box facility anymore that feels like a hotel and not personal, and you have a one caregiver to 30 resident ratio. People want more personalized care, like you would get at a private school. At a public school, you get what you get, and you don't throw a fit, which kind of the analogy I make for a facility versus residential assisted living. So what we invest in is the residential level, where you actually buy just a regular house and it may have four or five bedrooms in it, and let's say three bathrooms, and if it's a single story home that has, let's say 3000 square feet, that is a prime home to actually build out into a senior care home. And every state needs these. Every state has different laws and rules and regulations as to what some are going to require, different size door frames, different width requirements in the halls, ramp requirements, of course, for wheelchair access and such. At the end of the day, every state needs more housing for seniors, and it's really going to be an education piece on getting people up to speed. We have five homes in Phoenix doing this, this model. There's a lot of network already available there. Like people love to retire in warm weather. Phoenix is just a hotbed for these residential assisted living homes. So that's where we got started. But when you move into, you know, let's say rural Nebraska, it's not going to be as as prevalent. So you really got to do a lot more networking and education to zoom back to your question about quality over quantity. If you think about scaling to $10,000 per month in passive income, quote, unquote, passive, the way I look at it, if I can have one residential assisted living home that nets $10,000 per month when I talk about the one residential assisted living home that could make net $10,000 per month that would be running the operations yourself, where you have let's say the average resident across America is going to pay 4000 to $6,000 per month to stay in a home like what I'm talking about if One home, let's go with the low end of $4,000 per month has a capacity of 10 residents in the house, then you can have 10 residents at $4,000 per month. So that's $40,000 gross. And then if you the average, if you're running an efficient home, just having straight up staffing costs, that maybe cost you $15,000 per month, and then you have your mortgage and your debt, that takes you another $10,000 per month, and let's say another five for excess costs and food and things, that's $30,000 of expenses. So 40,000 minus 30,000 is $10,000 per month. That's an efficiently run home. But that is not the height of what someone could do with this strategy. We have partners that do $40,000 net per month in this strategy, and that's generally in the dementia care, memory care space. What we did when we started was something called the lease to operator model, and that's a little bit more hands off, actually, I would say a lot more hands off than the actual operations of the home, like what I just said, because if you're doing the staffing and you have the business liability, that's all pretty involved, and there's a lot of education and a lot of networking that you need to do to get to that point. When I got started in this, I did the least operator model, because I was time constrained and I didn't want to actually get involved with the hands on care number one, because I was in Virginia Beach, and the homes that we were buying were in Phoenix, so there was no possible way for me to do that when we bought our first home at 10 capacity, so there's 10 residents that can fit in the home. I found an operator and vetted them and moved them into the house, and they're paying me a lease for five years, so it's somewhat of a commercial lease, but it's a residential home, and I actually got residential insurance on the house. The business owner that is leasing from me has the business liability insurance, and now they're paying me two and a half times what would have been the regular lease amount that I could have gotten for that home. So in that area, they're paying me $8,000 per month on a five year lease, and that goes up 3% per year. However, if I was renting that out like a normal house, I'm. Be getting 2020 $500 per month, every month, on a long term lease.

Keith Weinhold 20:05

That's this way the manager operates it, rather than you, right? So I

Luke Frizzell 20:09

actually empower the manager, or this operator, is what we call them. That's why it's leased to operator. I empower this manager to actually run it themselves. I don't tell them you can't paint the inside of the house. I don't tell them you can't redo the floors when you want. If they want to do that, that's on them, but they owe me that lease amount every month, and I empower them to run the home however they want. What I'm making sure happens is I'm paying for the insurance on the house, and I'm making sure the roof is stable and the walls are not going to collapse. Everything else, from utilities to whatever is on them, and they are a full fledged business owner in there, and hopefully they stay once the five years is up.

Keith Weinhold 20:48

That's a really interesting way to do it, by the way. Just dropping back to your earlier comment, I like how you say your wife doesn't have time to do the property management. I think we both know that we are protecting her standard of living and quality of life when she is not the property manager. Yes, I think it's common knowledge in America that the senior population is growing faster than the overall population. In fact, about four past GRE episodes featured the late great gene Guarino here on the show, a big educator in the residential assisted living space. We've got this aging population, the silver tsunami, the demographics about it are surely undeniable. I think a holdup for some people is that you're merging real estate investing with an active business. However, you've just described something where you're sort of withdrawing from that active business part, getting a leaseholder to pay you two and a half times the market rent, if you just had it as a buy and hold property and having them operated, is that right?

Speaker 2 20:48

Yeah, and I that's obviously a rough I say two to three times. I like to call it Airbnb numbers in a good market, without the stolen paper towels.

Keith Weinhold 20:48

You know what I mean? Like that, the stolen paper towels, the vacancy, the managing a listing, the clean. So

Speaker 2 20:48

you're doing all the you're getting the reaping the rewards of, let's say, an Airbnb without any headache. Because once you've set that operator in there, and you've empowered them to do it, and you have a rock solid lease, you're wiping your hands clean, I have to reach out to my operators to get an update from them to make sure that everything's going well, because they're not reaching out to me they're running their home. And hopefully, if I've empowered them the right way, and I am allowing them to be successful, and they reach out to me and say, Hey, Luke, I want to actually expand operations. So if you buy another house in this area, let me know, so that I can expand my operations there as well.

Luke Frizzell 21:23

Yeah. Well, do you have any last things to tell us about the residential assisted living for example, I know you have four strategies. For one, to get invested in it.

Luke Frizzell 22:44

That's a good question. And and just to hit on your last point, you're I actually like that. You can mix the real estate with the business, if you have time for that. And many people can do that, especially if you come from a healthcare background, or you're a nurse, that you're just looking to do something out on your own and not just spending your hours working at the hospital. And maybe you're a caregiver that's not paid well enough, and you're overworked, but you know that you could go and do something like that, or you're a doctor, a lot of people can go out and do this themselves, but if you're like me, and you're just a working professional that doesn't have time to get into that, but you do have people skills, and can figure out, like, Hey, I've interviewed about five different operators for this, and I can tell that this one meets all the marks, and they're going to get in there, and I can trust them, and they have a good, extensive experience in this space, and they're going to pay me a reasonable lease. That makes sense for why I'm putting the risk into this. Yeah, I'm going to pick them and get them in there. That's a really good option for people. So that's one of the strategies, is lease to operator. Another strategy is the one we already talked about, which is own and operate. So you're getting the power of real estate. You're leasing from yourself as so it's one entity, one business entity owns the property, one business entity owns the care business, and you're leasing from yourself, and there's some major tax benefits to doing it that way. That's obviously the most time intensive, and you're probably going that route if you want to make this your life's path. The other option is actually, if you don't have the money right now to buy a house, but you have the drive and you have the experience to get into the actual operations, you could just lease from somebody like me and who owns the house and doesn't want to get involved in the operations just yet, and now you can just set up a lease with them. Phoenix is a really good hub. Houston is a really good hub, but cities across America are going to start finding out about this and needing to get this into their advertise, basically because the senior housing issue that we talked about. And then finally, you can passively invest in these through open range capital, we are investing in these, and we're actually developing some memory care homes in Northern Virginia right now. So if you go to open range capital, you'll be able to find opportunities to invest in these as a passive investor. Or there's folks in the rail room who are building. Memory Care Homes in Houston area, and they're offering over 20% returns to people who just want to, hey, you have money, but you don't have time, and you don't have the interest to actually do some of this yourself. But you understand the power of residential assisted living, and the way that this medical problem and the senior care housing issue is growing in our country. Well, you can put your money there instead of doing it yourself.

Keith Weinhold 25:25

These are four distinct strategies for investing in residential assisted living, from the very much hands on to the passive hands off. Oh, this has really been helpful. Why don't you go ahead and let our audience know how they can learn more about the Raoul room and your website.

Luke Frizzell 25:42

Thanks for that. So we saw that there was a huge knowledge gap between real estate investors and business owners. And just anybody who's an entrepreneur thinking about how to get into this. You see the Cody Sanchez's of the world talking about business ownership and all those things you hear about the problem with our senior housing. And if you put those two things together, there's a huge gap in the marketplace. We wanted to educate people on this, because when we got started, there was a lot of unknowns, and it's really hard to sift through all the confusion about, you know how to get licensed. How do I know how many people I can fit into my home and actually care for? How do I find operators? How can I learn from other people who are actually doing this across the country and figure out which market to get into? So we wanted to combine all of that and have a network of people who know how to find these homes, know how to get you started in doing these and of course, we've been learning along the way as well, and that that was part of our goal as well when we started the Ral room. But we have a community of over 115 people. At this point, you can go to the ralroom.com r a l room.com and find out more. It's a great opportunity to learn about what it is. We have freebies in there about how to get started, from one to 10 step guide, and we even have a free podcast called The Ral room podcast. So tune into that. If you haven't done it yet.

Keith Weinhold 27:04

This has been informative, terrific stuff from Luke Frizzell. The audience will benefit from your point of view. Thanks for your time and intention today.

Luke Frizzell 27:14

Yeah, absolutely, Keith. Appreciate you.

Keith Weinhold 27:17

This was our first of two GRE listener guest profiles. We've got the second one when we come back. I'm Keith Weinhold. You're listening to get rich education.

Keith Weinhold 27:26

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Richard Duncan 29:08

this is Richard Duncan, publisher on macro. Watch, listen to get rich education with Keith Weinhold, and don't quit your Daydream. You

Keith Weinhold 29:26

this week's GRE listener guest profile is with an Air Force vet turned real estate investor, and today he even runs the ideal investor show. He's from Germany and lives in San Diego today, using strategies like turnkey real estate, 1031, exchanges and more. He now owns multiple properties in different countries and states. These include the states of Ohio, Idaho, Illinois and Florida, and the nations of Belize, Panama, Spain and more. He's been a GRE listener since episode. 100 which was in 2016 and this helped him connect with income property providers and get started and really growing his wealth through compound leverage, not just compound interest. He ultimately ended up with eight properties in what he calls well performing locations. Hey, it's great to have you here. Welcome to GRE Dr Axel meyerhoffer, hey, Keith, thank you for having me. Meyerhoffer is spelled m, e, i, e r, H, O, E, F, E R. I know that coming on to GRE is something that you've wanted to do for a while, but let's pull back first, what is your doctorate in? And then how do you use that degree or distinction today?

Dr Axel Meierhoefer 30:40

Well, my doctorate is in organizational change and leadership, and the dissertation that I wrote as the study at the end of the degree program was about business coaching and whether it's better for a company to have internal coaches versus external coaches. And when you're diving really deep, my like, I don't know if you're aware, but PhD stands, at least in my book for pilot high and deep, high and deep, right? And so, you know, I really dug into this, and what I learned about coaching is still helping me, even though idea wealth grow is a little bit more mentoring program than a coaching program, but still, the practice of engaging people and getting out of them what they really want to accomplish is valid every day

Keith Weinhold 31:28

when we wonder about what's piled high and deep, I'm sure that thing is knowledge couldn't possibly be anything else. Dr meyerhoffer, tell us what you learned from listening here that piqued your interest?

Dr Axel Meierhoefer 31:43

Well, the one thing is, I had found the book turnkey revolution, by Chris closure, who, for those who don't know he, is the one of the family members of the founders of Memphis invest that is now known as Rei Nation. I'm sure you're very familiar with it, Keith and I've heard of them. Yeah, I read the book, and it was very helpful, but it wasn't very clear, other than his family's company, how do you apply this as a regular investor, which I was at the time. And then I listened to your episodes over and over, talking about how you can use turnkey investing to invest out of state, being far away. And I remember, if I'm not mistaken, that you were in Alaska and investing somewhere in lower 48 and so that kind of got me triggered to look into that.

Keith Weinhold 32:30

You figure, if you're in San Diego, you can invest in Alabama, if a person from Honolulu or anchorage can do that same thing. All right, so you've built up, it sounds like, is it eight turnkey properties? It's

Dr Axel Meierhoefer 32:45

eight turnkey properties. And then I have a few other things, like, I also listen to episodes that you had about agricultural investing. So, yeah, like in Panama, the first investment was in a coffee farm. And then a little later, I also discovered some you would call them, like little cabin, kind of like vacation cabin investments and stuff. So yeah, I've actually learned a lot and benefited, and I always appreciated that, you know, you're not just saying, Hey, here's something you can do, but you oftentimes have a connection or relationship with an organization. And so several times my investments were at least informed, let's say, by GRE,

Keith Weinhold 33:26

yes. And oftentimes I'm investing right next to you, the investor myself, with some of the same GRE marketplace providers. You have eight properties. Are they all cash flowing? Are they all producing positive cash flow?

Dr Axel Meierhoefer 33:41

Yeah. I mean, that's actually one of the things that I wanted from the get go, and that's also part of our idea rights grow a mentoring program to look at properties now. Right now, with the higher interest rates, it's admittedly a little harder to find locations and properties that have a good balance between the quality of the property, the area that the property is in and then also being cash flowing. We have fundamentally for renovated properties. We're still looking for 1% rule. It's harder to find, but you know, as a starting point to say, Should I even consider as long as it's close to that most of the time, the numbers work out, even at seven or eight percentages, you still make at least a little bit of money

Keith Weinhold 34:20

overall. Yes, the real estate deals just aren't as good as they were, say, five years ago, because both rents and prices are up, but rents haven't risen as much as prices have. I still don't know where you're going to find a better risk adjusted return in any investment, though, than with income property bought with a loan.

Dr Axel Meierhoefer 34:42

Yeah, I'm with you on that. And I mean, I remember vividly, not in only in books and other research, that people have this apples to oranges comparison thing going on all the time, right? I always say, Okay, well, tell me if you can buy stocks where somebody gives you 80% of the money, and I already need to put 20 right? What tell me if you can buy stocks and somebody says, Oh, the stock is gonna depreciate in the next 27 and a half years. So, you know, you write some of it off your tax return, and those kind of things. Tell me where somebody gives you money but allows you to keep 100% of the increase in value all these things. I mean, you have beautiful graphics and stuff that you made over time, but when you really try to do apples to apples comparison, there's nothing there. And one thing maybe for the audience, that I think is an important thing to know is, and I know Keith, you have said this so many times, real estate, especially residential real estate and investing, is really the long term game. And that also means to realize, okay, even in times like right now, you might only start with, like, 50 or $100 positive cash flow. But when you look at the longer term, I always say, and I say this to our clients, the first five and maybe right now, it's more like seven years. It's kind of like the hard time of this investment where you just barely break even, where you might be a little disgruntled when you get a maintenance bill and you haven't really built a big reserve yet, because you're still with your first few properties, but when you look at the trajectory, and I can see it now, you know, I've six years in all properties are cash flow positive, the rate that we're getting, even if we only increase rents by 2030, $35 a month, year over year. Like you said, right? You want to train your tenants. When I look at the overall picture, it's basically getting better every year. If you have that in mind, to say, I make an investment. I call, by the way, the point what we want to get to. I call that the time freedom point where your portfolio generates enough cash flow so yet you have a choice to say, Do I go work or do I live off the income? And that is why you still have mortgages, right? So if the listeners ever think, Okay, well, what happens when one after the next, the mortgages get paid off, it's like paradise at that point, right? If you really think of it from a purely cash flow perspective,

Keith Weinhold 36:56

starting is the hardest, because it's clunky to buy your first property, and then it also takes a few years until you really feel the effect of all these wealth multipliers at the same time. You're sort of touching on the third in the inflation Triple Crown, cash flow enhancement, if you only increase the rent three or 4% per year. Yeah. So what it feels like you're only keeping up with inflation, but the fact that your principal and interest payment stays fixed means a three to 4% rent increase might be a 10% cash flow increase. As that compounds year after year, you really begin to feel those effects. But yes, it does take the addition of time, but not decades.

Dr Axel Meierhoefer 37:38

I'm with you. It's just for me, important that anybody who is considering should I get into this right, especially in an environment where people constantly pointing to the fact that the stock market keeps going up, gold is going up, silver is going up, Bitcoin is going up, right? And to me, these are the apples, and they are nice apples, don't get me wrong, right? They're beautiful apples, but we're dealing in oranges, right? And we have these five different things that you keep counting on, and have all kinds of beautiful descriptions about that we get as real estate investors. And it's a choice, right? People can make a choice, and I'm all for diversification, but if you make the choice, then you really have the beginning of building a legacy. And for many people, I find more and more that becomes important to say it's not just for me, like if you were to ask me, it's not just for me, it's also knowing that my daughter will have a much better portfolio than I ever had when I was young. Yeah, our now, like almost two year old grandson, he is going to be safe pretty much forever

Keith Weinhold 38:37

getting started and even after starting for some people, there are certain mindsets that they need to overcome. One of them is getting out of state property. So do you have any thoughts or approaches with adding out of state properties, which is still a foreign proposition to some people?

Dr Axel Meierhoefer 38:56

Well, one thing that I do and emphasize very strongly in our mentoring program is besides the investing and helping people to get the connections to like the turnkey providers and the lenders and the property managers, inspectors and stuff, the other part, and I'm sometimes almost feel, is more important than the investing itself. Obviously, it's kind of a requirement, but the other part is to really as the mentor, help people to develop the mindset of the king or queen of their own empire, or basically the owner of the investing business. And when you think about it that way, I often times portray it in the way look at all the components, all the services that you need for the out of state investor, right? You need the turnkey provider, property management, bank or lender. You need inspectors and stuff. I try to convey to people, we are building an LLC, and that LLC is hiring these people as if they were employees. And if you look at it that way, and you start adopting that mindset. And. You look at their performance like any employer would look at the performance of their employees. If the performance is great, they get praise and the raise. If the performance sucks, you let him go and get another one when you're not going to hang out with the same property management out of state, constantly complaining, not doing their job, not treating the tenants well, not treating your property well. Why would you keep somebody like that? So it's this aspect of building a mindset of, yes, you might have a job, a regular w2 job, but for the purposes of building your real estate portfolio, you are the business owner, and you're hiring all these services. And when that clicks and you start treating the people that you're working with in that way, with respect, but with every expectation that you pay them for their services so they're supposed to perform. That changes, in my opinion and my experience. That changes everything

Keith Weinhold 40:54

comes down to the fact that the team is more important than the property, and a lot of people perhaps overemphasize the geographic location of that property. Location surely matters, but it's just not nearly the most important thing I know. One approach that you take is you have this mantra that underdog properties often outperform hot properties. However, can you speak to that some more

Speaker 3 41:21

Well, I think it has to do with it, with this kind of analogy of Steady as she goes right underdog property, I'm more inclined to look in a nice neighborhood and establish nice neighborhood. I always say, Let's try, with the help of a turnkey provider, to find the ugly duckling in a nice neighborhood and get that renovated and that neighborhood, I'm not a big fan of this term blue color versus white color or anything like that, but if you bring the ugly duckling back to be the white swan of that neighborhood, you have, I believe, a very good probability that that will be a very long time longevity, well respected, well rented, well performing property, rather than, you know, running after the shiny object the most you know, like, I don't want to really open wounds, but I know that a lot of people ran to Austin, Texas, because everybody said, that's the market you gotta be in, Right prices, outrageous rents, looked good for a little while, then the property taxes got adjusted, the market collapsed, and now everybody is whining. I rather have my nice property in Dayton or in Cincinnati, and it's doing steady, as she goes, every month, every year, right? So that's what I meant by that

Keith Weinhold 42:30

a friend and prolific apartment investor, Ken McElroy, who's been a frequent guest on this show, Ken says, look for distressed properties, not distressed markets. There's a lot in that.

Dr Axel Meierhoefer 42:53

Yeah, I'm very much with Ken on that. And it's not just for apartment complexes. I think it fits just as well for single family or duplex triplex fourplex properties? Yeah, we

Keith Weinhold 43:03

want to avoid those distressed markets. It takes a long time for them to turn around, and every property in that market floats up or down with it. Well. Dr meyerhoffer, as we think about the future, you've been around this space for a while now, like you mentioned, you're even helping mentor some others. Where do you think the residential real estate market is headed the next few years? From your perspective,

Dr Axel Meierhoefer 43:27

I really have the feeling it's kind of a little bit like a coil spring that is basically being wound tighter and tighter and tighter. Because people may not agree with me. I think everybody is entitled to their own opinion, but I'm a little bit refusing to believe that the dream and the interest of owning your own property for yourself and your family supposedly has gone away. What I believe is that the circumstances both from a Can I qualify for a loan? Can I afford the price? Can my wages actually work for what I want to accomplish that balance is out of whack a lot right now, but I can totally see when we're looking in the future, that we will see interest rates coming down, properties still being in high demand. And for us as investors, I don't know if you had it on your show before, but I oftentimes being asked, you know, is it still the right time to invest. And my answer is always, like most people in residential real estate, the best time was 20 years ago. The second best time is today. Yeah. And if you adopt this idea of, like, this cold spring getting ready, I mean, just ask yourself people, the last time they really did anything meaningful was basically in 2022 let's just assume it takes another year until interest rates come down, and another six to nine months for the market to really start adjusting. So that takes us to the middle of 2027 that would mean for five years, hundreds of 1000s, if not billions, of people wanted to do something, wanted to move, wanted to get a house, wanted to get a bigger place. They've. Finally can that's kind of the window that I'm looking at with. Not to say there will never be another opportunity. But why would you wait until the market goes crazy when you have it really nice, really calm right now, almost no competition for an owner occupants. It's really an investor market right now. We can pick and we can be diligent, and we can negotiate with the builders and all this nice stuff, no time pressure. They even tell you, I know Keith. They tell you, too, when you have a client, make first sure that the client is qualified before we even talking about price. I remember times when I bought where I was told you have 72 hours to decide if you want it or not and get it under contract because of 100 people out the door who want it, it's the calm before the storm. If you ask me, I can tell exactly when that storm is really gonna hit, but nobody can convince me that if five years the market is basically frozen, that when you release it and open the door, that it's not going to be pretty crazy. Yeah, no, in my opinion,

Keith Weinhold 46:01

that's a good analogy. We're in this period where we have a compressed spring lower interest rates could open up that spring to bounce up, because we have, really, it's all this pent up demand, a pent up demand spring, and we know as mortgage rates fall, millions more people qualify increasing demand for a fixed supply of housing. Well, this has been helpful for the audience. In closing, Dr meyerhoffer, do you have any last thoughts, anything else that you want to share with the GRE audience at all?

Dr Axel Meierhoefer 46:35

Well, the one thing I would say is, you know, you want to work with somebody real estate investing, when you have somebody who has built the experience, like you have Keith with you, the programs and all the partners you're working with, similar to me, over the last 10 years, I think it's a great opportunity to do it now, where you can and have the time to learn and work together and take advantage of this relatively Calm market, because it's probably not going to stay that way. And on the other hand, I also feel that too many people are going like you said, in a slightly different context, after the current shiny object. And I would hate for people that made good money in the last year or two in the stock market to lose it all, because what goes up comes down, especially in these kind of assets, why not take some profits and put it where you really have the long term perspective, like you and I have always suggested for people,

Keith Weinhold 47:29

and is there a good resource where someone can connect with you? Because we've learned that you've taken such an interest in this and you've begun mentoring people. Is it ideal wealth grower?

Dr Axel Meierhoefer 47:38

Yeah. Idealwealthgrower.com we have a button for a complimentary conversation to just book a call. I would assume you agree. You know, when you work with people for longer term and for the personal things like money and investing, you kind of have to have a good relationship. You have to kind of in agreement where you want to go and whether you like each other and have a good energy with each other. So I always feel, let's talk, let's get to know each other. And if we decide we want to work together, then we do that. And if somebody says, You know what I really want to do, apartments. I know people. You know people, we can direct them to. Some people want to do storage units or whatever. So these conversations are really to say, let's get to know each other and see if the goals you have match with what I can help you with. And if that's a yes, then we are off to the races.

Keith Weinhold 48:24

Sort of reassuring in this algorithmic world that we live in, in this highly digital world that people you know really still matter, it's still about your connections with people. Dr Meyer Hopper, it's been great getting your perspective. Thanks so much for coming onto the show.

Dr Axel Meierhoefer 48:42

Thank you, Keith, for having me.

Keith Weinhold 48:49

Yeah, with the first GRE listener guest, Luke, it's just exemplary of how when you own the property now you make the rules, and in this case, you can increase your income multiples by converting your rental property into residential assisted living with the second listener guest, Dr meyerhoffer, I like his analogy of the coiled spring ready to open up as pent up housing demand should get released With lower interest rates. Both guests have a Military Connection, which is merely a coincidence. But today's listener guests were chosen because, unlike others that we've had here, they've each started their own real estate mentoring platforms influenced by listening to this show.

Keith Weinhold 49:35

Now in the preview to today's episode, I let you know that I have an opportunity to tell you about it's been pretty well documented that both Florida and Texas have temporarily overbuilt pockets, and this is where home builders, sometimes desperate, are willing to give you a deep deal. I've discussed Florida and their specific opportunities. What? About Texas? Listen to these deep deals, because Texas, it is one of the most in demand states for real estate investing, but cash flow is often hard to find due to property taxes and rising prices. That's why I'm excited to announce that here at GRE us with our coaches, we found a tiny stash of new construction, yet tenant occupied properties in San Antonio, the Houston suburbs and Dallas suburbs, and they are available exclusively to GRE listeners, four bed homes under 340k here's what's remarkable. There's up to $41,000 to you in incentives. That is 12% back at closing, interest only loan options as low as four and three quarter percent. Yes, they're already leased to long term tenants. This is a 19% cash on cash return potential put these properties into service and get bonus depreciation, like I discussed last week, up to $94,000 these incentives are just massive, and you can qualify with DSCR loans, no tax returns required, no w2 required. I mean, this whole thing is a bigger deal than a Bucky brisket sandwich, something else you'll find in Texas. These are all built either this year or last year. For example, like this beautiful three bed, two bath, single family rental in Conroe, Texas that I'm looking at right now. The sale price is just $279,900 and then you get all those incentives. The rent is almost $2,000 it's 1950 and it's over 1500 square feet on this really good looking property with garage. That's just an example of one of the income properties I'm talking about here. They are off market and they won't be available long. Don't miss out on this best performing Texas inventory we've seen many are already cash flowing, $500 plus a month. Chat with a GRE investment coach, and they'll show you the best picks before this inventory evaporates. Book time with them. It's free. You can do that at GRE investment coach.com. Until next week. I'm your host, Keith Weinhold, don't quit your Daydream.

Speaker 4 52:47

Keith Weinhold 53:10

You know, whenever you want the best written real estate and finance info, oh, geez, today's experience limits your free articles access, and it's got paywalls and pop ups and push notifications and cookies disclaimers, it's not so great. So then it's vital to place nice, clean, free content into your hands that adds no hype value to your life. That's why this is the golden age of quality newsletters, and I write every word of ours myself. It's got a dash of humor, and it's to the point, because even the word abbreviation is too long, my letter usually takes less than three minutes to read, and when you start the letter, you also get my one hour fast real estate video. Course, it's all completely free. It's called the Don't quit your Daydream. Letter, it wires your mind for wealth, and it couldn't be easier for you to get it right now. Just text gre 266, 866, while it's on your mind, take a moment to do it right now. Text gre 266, 866,

Keith Weinhold 54:26

The preceding program was brought to you by your home for wealth. Building, get richeducation.com

Direct download: GREepisode567_.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 4:00am EST

Mon, 11 August 2025

Erratum: At 37:31, replace "Florida" with "California".

Keith fields listener questions on: changes to realtor fees, down payment strategies for investment properties, and how the new 100% bonus tax depreciation really works, then staggering inflation statistics that motivate you to invest in real assets.

He explains that realtor fees have shifted from a 6% listing fee to a 3% seller fee, with potential buyer contributions negotiable.

For down payments, he advises maximizing leverage while avoiding over-leverage.

Bonus depreciation allows for significant tax deductions in the first year, benefiting high-income investors.

Resources:

Connect with a recommended cost segregation engineer to take advantage of bonus depreciation here.

Show Notes:

GetRichEducation.com/566

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565: The Tax Trap Hiding in Your Home Sale, Life's Too Short to Be Cheap

Complete episode transcript:

Automatically Transcribed With Otter.ai

Keith Weinhold 0:00

Welcome to GRE. I'm your host. Keith Weinhold, fielding your listener questions on changes to realtor fees, your down payment strategy, and how the new 100% bonus tax depreciation really works, then staggering inflation statistics that motivate you to invest in real assets today on Get Rich Education.

Keith Weinhold 0:26

Since 2014 the powerful get rich education podcast has created more passive income for people than nearly any other show in the world. This show teaches you how to earn strong returns from passive real estate investing in the best markets without losing your time being a flipper or landlord. Show Host Keith Weinhold writes for both Forbes and Rich Dad advisors, and delivers a new show every week. Since 2014 there's been millions of listener downloads of 188 world nations. He has a list show guests include top selling personal finance author Robert Kiyosaki, get rich education can be heard on every podcast platform, plus it has its own dedicated Apple and Android listener phone apps build wealth on the go with the get rich education podcast. Sign up now for the get rich education podcast, or visit get rich education.com

Speaker 1 1:12

You're listening to the show that has created more financial freedom than nearly any show in the world. This is get rich education.

Keith Weinhold 1:22

Welcome to GRE from Athens, Pennsylvania to Athens, Georgia to Athens, Greece, and with listeners across 188 world nations. You are listening to get rich Education. I'm your host. Keith Weinhold, yeah, you and I are back together for a 566th wealth building week. This is not where you learn how to create wealth through careful sports wagering at DraftKings. We also don't try to do everything like WalMart. We talk about investing actually pretty aggressively yet reasonably and responsibly at the same time. Usually those attributes are opposites, but because we are leveraging the most proven wealth building vehicle of all time, real estate, where you don't have to be the landlord. You don't need to get deeply hands on with house flipping, and you don't need to own property in your local market, though you could. We are not day trading. We are decade trading. There's not a get rich quick element here at GRE, because that doesn't work. We're owning mostly long term rental properties, bringing the financially free beats debt free approach and cognizant that compound leverage Trumps compound interest. And from the day you start focusing on this, you can retire in five to 10 years, and you can take it as far as you want, because unlike many professional sports, the sport of real estate investing doesn't have any salary cap at all. I'm starting off with three of your listener questions today. You write into the show with your questions and what I've got a few that I think could help a lot of you. I answer them here. And as usual, I start with the more introductory question, and then I proceed to the more advanced. The first one comes from Sherry In Sellersburg, Indiana. I know where that is. It's just across the river and to the north of Louisville, Kentucky. Sherry asks when I go to sell my duplex, how have last year's changes in realtor fees affected my sale costs? Yeah, thanks for the question, Sherry. And a lot of people still wonder about this first and a big little technical here, but this benefits other listeners Sherry is that a realtor means that they are a member of the NAR, the National Association of Realtors. So not all people that you enlist to help you market and sell your property are realtors, because not all agents belong to the NAR. In fact, the best catch all term for this person is not an agent. Depending on the state you're doing business in, it's probably licensee, someone licensed to act as your professional intermediary in a real estate transaction. And by the way, the name of an NAR member is a realtor. It is not pronounced real utter it's realtor, like doctor and lawyer. You wouldn't call a doctor a doctor two syllables, realtor, but to get to the crux of your question, Sherry, the changes to realtor compensation took effect almost exactly a year ago. It was last August, and it has less. Of an effect on the industry than many thought. I stated last year that it likely wouldn't affect things much, especially here on the investor side, and it really hasn't. The simplified version is that the old landscape was that when you used to list the property for sale, the listing agent charged you a fee, traditionally, 6% they offered half of that to any cooperating broker that brought the buyer to you. That was simple, and that worked for decades. That changed one year ago now, when any realtor or really licensee, when they work with you, now they simply contract with you for their fee, only like 3% as a seller of the property, you no longer have an obligation to pay for the buyer side agent as well, like you used to. But when you sign a listing agreement, you can indicate that you may be willing to concede and give an allowance to the buyer when they engage a licensee on their side to help them purchase your property. So Sherry, your voluntary contribution to the buyer side is negotiable, and it's part of the offer that the buyer presents to you. Now that's what you'll see as the seller and what you should expect as a buyer. The new landscape is that buyers negotiate a personal service agreement upfront with their licensee. Their service isn't free. I mean, these people can't work for free, and the buyer side licensee acknowledges that they will try to negotiate to get the seller to pay that fee. So Sherry, in reality, that's still what often happens. So the seller still pays that fee. In the end, the reason why is that not only is this traditional, but buyers cannot normally afford to pay for their own representation on top of their down payment and closing costs. They're often spread pretty thin already, but sellers can typically afford it. They have the upper hand financially in the form of equity in the property. And here, when you're buying properties at GRE marketplace, you don't have to pay any of those fees. We use a direct model without a licensee. So that's sort of the short version of the change, and why. I hope that helps sherry. It's a good question. Even licensees are struggling with the new rules.

Keith Weinhold 7:38

The next question comes from Jezebel in Yonkers, New York. Jezebel asks, what is the ideal percent down payment that I should make on a rental property? I'm trying to figure out the trade off between debt level, cash flow, leverage and risk. I'm still trying to get past the mindset that paid off property is best. All right, that's Jezebel's question, and Jezebel The short answer is that you want to make the smallest down payment possible while avoiding over leverage. Over leverage, meaning that your monthly payments are so big that you struggle to make them. Now, many investors that buy rental property, they're going to make a 20% down payment on a conventional loan for a single family rental. At last check on duplexes and up the down payment has to be at least 25% now you can make a down payment as low as 15% at least on a single family rental, although you would then be subject to an extra fee a PMI premium. Now, why would one do such a thing for the leverage? Because leverage is almost seven to one at 15% down, but you've got to balance that with a PMI premium. Run the numbers and see what works for you. Now, since you can make just a 20% down payment on a single family rental, conversely, why would you put 25% down? Your leverage position would slide from five to one down to four to one, where you can often get a slightly lower interest rate if you put 25% down. But when you run the numbers, you'll find that it's often better to maintain strong leverage and only put 20% down. Now, Jezebel, as soon as you start putting 30% down on a property that is questionable at 30% or more, because at that point you really have to start asking why the rate of return from home equity is always zero. It actually makes your risk go up, like I've discussed extensively before, with 30% down, your leverage ratio has been cut to 3.3 maybe the answer could be that 30% down is what it takes to produce. Positive cash flow, but putting 30% or more down is clearly not ideal. Think about how good we've got it as real estate investors here, for example, imagine that you're attracted to a dividend paying stock because it pays a 4% yield, unless you're borrowing on margin, you would need to make a 100% down payment to get that 4% cash on cash return from a dividend paying stock, 100% sunk into this, which isn't even a down payment anymore. That's just an outright free and clear stock purchase. Well, instead, in real estate, when you realize that property prices rise or fall in value regardless of how much equity is in a property, you don't have an incremental increase in your equity growth. It's a quantum leap. And here's what I mean. Jezebel, say you're investing 100k in real estate, that's how much you're going to put into it, and it appreciates at 5%. All right, there are two scenarios with that. Scenario A, you put that 100% down into just one 500k property, well, then you've got just a 25k gain after a year. Instead, with Scenario B, you put 20% down on five 500k properties, then you've got a 25k gain after a year, not just 5k Said another way more powerfully. Scenario A, you only got a 5% return on one property. In Scenario B, you got a 25% return on all of five properties. Wow. That's why the leverage light bulb, when that goes off, that is an incredible flex that you've got. That's why I say it is not an incremental gain in your wealth. It is a quantum leap. So I hope that some of those considerations really help temper your strategy there. Jezebel, that really helps you see how financially free beats debt free and exposes the opportunity cost of a paid off property. Thanks for the question.

Keith Weinhold 12:19

The next question comes from Ed, and he is a personal friend of mine, so he submitted this question by text message to me, but I wanted to address his question here, because I've had other people in my friend group ask me about this. It's about bonus depreciation, what it is. It's about bonus depreciation, what it is and how it works. And what's interesting here is that even those that aren't active real estate investors have been asking me about bonus depreciation. This was part of Trump's OB BBA, the one big, beautiful Bill Act that was signed into law back on the Fourth of July, and I told you about that last month, but because of all the questions about it and the lack of clarity around people's understanding of bonus depreciation, although it gets a little busy, let me give you a real world example with numbers on how bonus depreciation really works and how you can put 10s of 1000s of dollars in your pocket with it the next time you file your taxes. And by the way, my friend Ed that asked this question is a cargo pilot, so he is probably the most well traveled friend that I have. Yeah, through our chats and on social media, I often see that he's in China or Vietnam or a bunch of other places, but he lives in the US. In fact, bonus depreciation is encouraging more people that haven't even been real estate investors previously to newly invest in real estate because it is for properties acquired January, 20, 2025, or later, Trump's inauguration day for his second term or later. And I expect this to be effective for at least four years from that date. I think I mentioned that part to you a few weeks ago. All right, the property has got to be newly placed in service, not something that you bought, say, five years ago. Bonus depreciation does not apply to primary residences. We're talking about rental property, although it does apply to more than just rental property, because it can apply to property used in a business, like equipment, machinery and furniture, but within rental property, it applies to certain components of the real estate, not the building itself. That is on a regular depreciation schedule, and not the bare land. Land cannot be tax depreciated at all. All, neither through regular depreciation or bonus depreciation. You probably already know that a residential building itself can be depreciated over 27 and a half years. That works out to 3.6% of the value each year that can be depreciated or written off on your taxes, right? Well, what if there were portions of your building that you could write off faster, like over just five years, meaning 20% of their value each year you can, and others over seven years, meaning 14% of their value each year you can. And there's 15 year items as well. All right, so what if, instead of all that, you could take those five seven and 15 year components and just write them all off in the first year of ownership, so that you didn't even have to wait the five seven in 15 years, you can, you can write them all off in year one of your ownership of the property, and that is what 100% bonus depreciation is right there. That is in addition to writing off the main building over 27 and a half years. All right, with that understanding generally, let me break this down in more detail. Use an example, and that will also help reinforce what I just taught you, the components of rental property that bonus depreciation applies to, include the stuff that wears out faster than the building, and they are indoor items, appliances, flooring and cabinetry. At times, it can include HVAC systems, all right, that is written off in five to seven years. And then outdoor items known as land improvements, that includes fences, parking lots and landscaping. They're typically written off over 15 years. All right, let's look at a real world example on how this can benefit you. You can use bonus appreciation on single family rentals, duplexes, fourplexes and larger buildings. Let's use an example of an apartment building that you purchase for $1.2 million one we'll say the land value is 200k that is not depreciable. So the building, the depreciable asset, has a value of $1 million you must have performed what is called a cost segregation study in order to break down that $1 million building into those erstwhile faster depreciating components. And no, you cannot do the cost seg study yourself. You need to pay a few $1,000 to hire a Cost Segregation engineer to do this study. All right, let's look at the cost seg breakdown, the result of what he or she finds for you, let's say the personal property that's worth 150k its recovery period is five to seven years, and yes, it is eligible for bonus depreciation. Then you have the land improvements say that's another 50k over 15 years for a recovery period. And yes, it is bonus depreciation eligible. And then finally, you have the structure, or the building worth 800k It has a recovery period of 27 and a half years. No, it is not eligible for bonus depreciation, just the regular type. All right. Well, let me define more of this personal property for you here these five or seven year assets, these are what are eligible for 100% bonus depreciation in qualifying years. So we're looking inside the units, appliances like refrigerators, ovens, dishwashers, microwaves, washers and dryers, also flooring, carpet, vinyl and removable floating floors, not typically hardwood or tile, cabinetry and countertops in some cases, especially if they're not load bearing. Window treatments like blinds, drapes and curtain rods, ceiling fans and light fixtures, they've got to be detached from the structure and furniture, if it's a furnished rental, like perhaps a midterm rental or short term rental. So we're talking about things like beds, couches, in chairs and then in common areas. This five to seven year personal property includes fitness equipment in the gym, leasing office, computers, desks, chairs, clubhouse furniture or TVs, package lockers, like places where your tenants have their Amazon packages, playground equipment and trash compactors. All right, to be clear, that was all personal property that can be depreciated over five to seven years. And then there are those land improvements, the. 15 year assets also eligible for bonus depreciation, sidewalks, fencing, landscaping and irrigation, parking lots and striping, outdoor lighting, retaining walls and signage. Okay again, those are the land improvements, the 15 year items, things that are not eligible for bonus depreciation are the building structure itself, like I mentioned. That includes the roof framing, drywall foundations, and also things like elevators, structural plumbing and wiring and HVAC systems that serve the whole structure. Okay, all that stuff falls in the category of regular 27 and a half year depreciation. All right, so what is the 100% bonus depreciation effect? All right, well, your eligible amount in our example is 150k of personal property plus 50k of land improvements. That's 200k that you can deduct all in one year, rather than having to spread it over five and seven and 15 years. But all in year one of you owning the property that's 200k and again, the remaining 800k structure is depreciated over 27 and a half years. That works out to about 29k a year. This is where it gets exciting. Here we go. So your total year one depreciation, the year that you bought this asset and put it into service, with your bonus depreciation items adding up to 200k and your regular building depreciation at about 29k your total year one deduction is about $229,000 Wow, before I break that down some more and tell you about how it really helps you, let's just be really clear. How did you really get to the 200k of bonus depreciation. All right, let's say the cost segregation study allocated 80k to appliances, flooring and fixtures. Remember, they are the five to seven year items. Another 70k to common area, furniture and office equipment, that was the seven year stuff. All right, so there's 150k or personal property, and then another 50k to that outdoor stuff, the depreciable items known as land improvements, like the parking, landscaping and fencing, those 15 year items, that's how we got to 200k all bonus depreciation eligible, all fully deductible in year One under the 100% bonus depreciation rules, all right, so here it is. Here's the takeaway. You have front loaded an extra 200k of deductions in year one, and you have greatly reduced your taxable income. This is the outcome. This is the result. You just reduced it by 229k between the bonus appreciation and the regular depreciation. All right, so what is the effect of you reducing your taxable income by 229k in one year? Well, if you're in the, say, 32% tax bracket, you keep an extra $73,000 in your pocket. That's $73,000 that you would have had to send to the IRS for the next tax year. But no, you don't, and that is the power of bonus depreciation. That's how it works. Ed, and for all of you that asked about it, I know it's not that simple, and there were a lot of numbers flying around there, it got a little heavy, but that's a complete breakdown. That's why so many people are excited about the return of 100% bonus depreciation, as laid out in law with the one big, beautiful Bill Act, as you can see, it's going to help higher income people more than anyone. If you'd like to get this going and connect with GRE recommended Cost Segregation engineer, or just check and see if it's worth paying several $1,000 for the cost segregation study, we can help you with that. In fact, you might remember that I interviewed him on the show last year, and we will make that introduction for you and help ensure that you have a successful cost seg and bonus depreciation experience regardless of the size of your portfolio, even if you don't own million dollar apartment buildings. You don't have to have a huge income for this to benefit you. It just benefits those people the most. Well, you can set up a time to chat with us about that completely free of charge at GRE investment coach.com I think you know that's where you can also get a completely free strategy session about growing your overall real estate investment portfolio. You might as well do that at the same time at GRE. Investment coach.com. More next, I'm Keith Weinhold. You're listening to get rich education.

Keith Weinhold 25:07

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Keith Weinhold 25:39

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Blair Singer 26:49

this is Rich Dad, sales advisor, Blair singer. Listen to get rich education with Keith Weinhold. And above all, don't quit your Daydream.

Keith Weinhold 27:07

welcome back to get rich Education. I'm your host, Keith Weinhold, if you have a listener question that you'd like to have answered on air, get a hold of us at get rich education.com/contact that's where you can either leave a voicemail or write in to us. I'd like to tell you the frequent guests that we have here on the show, all from the rich dad school, if you will, are going to be speaking in person at Penn State University in just a few weeks. Here it is on the 29th of this month. Yes, an event you can attend in person. It's going to be Robert Kiyosaki, Garrett Sutton and his son Ted Sutton and Tom wheelwright, the four of them speaking live and in person, sponsored by Penn State's Borrelli Institute for real estate studies. The event is named Rich Dad revealed Real Estate Wealth and wisdom. If that's of interest, look it up and check it out. From listening to the show and being a savvy investor that's inflation aware, you know that the mission is to turn a really fake asset, a conjured into existence asset, like $1 convert that into a real asset. Here is some astonishing clarity on why. That's the mission in this could leave you flabbergasted. Since 1980 The United States has one and a half times more homes, two times more gold today, and 42 times more dollars today. My gosh, that is almost laugh out loud material here. Yes, since 1980 the year that Jimmy Carter was president and Star Wars, The Empire Strikes Back, was the top grossing movie. The US has 56% more residential housing units today. So basically, since the year that Darth Vader told Luke Skywalker, I am your father, there are about one and a half times more homes, twice as much gold mined and brought into existence, and 42 times more dollars created out of thin air for the future, all of these trends are expected to continue at roughly the same trajectory and proportion to each other. Now, there's a reason that people use precious metals to measure inflation. It makes a particularly good measuring stick because commodities like gold, silver, platinum, palladium, rhodium and copper, they don't change over time. Unlike a car or a bottle of soda, these items are on the periodic table of the elements, an ounce of gold 1000 years ago is exactly the same. As an ounce of gold today. That's why commodities like this are such good long term inflation measuring sticks. And then there's Bitcoin, something that didn't even exist until 2009 there will only ever be 21 million of them in existence, and 95% of Bitcoins, about 20 million have already been mined into existence. So yes, only 5% more will be issued, and it's going to take about the next 100 years to do that. If bitcoins were the size of a quarter, all 21 million of them could fit inside a single shipping container. There's some fixed supply scarcity. Let's listen to this. It's about 30 seconds long, and it's called all there will ever be.

Speaker 2 30:50

Every day the Fed prints an average of $465 million that's 26,000 shipping containers a year, created out of thin air. Maybe that's why the dollar loses value over time. But there's one thing they can never print more of Bitcoin at the size of a quarter. This is all there will ever be. Shouldn't the store of value hold its value?

Keith Weinhold 31:16

That's actually a Coinbase video advertisement that we just listen to the audio of there together. Yes, what they show at the end is a shipping container where, if bitcoin were the size of a quarter, all of them that will ever exist would fit in one shipping container. And like it said, every single year, on average, the Fed prints enough dollars to fill 26,000 shipping containers, just staggering. There are so many dollars now, I'm thinking of replacing my insulation with stacks of ones. Same R value, better liquidity. Pretty soon, we won't count dollars anymore. We'll just weigh them. Welcome to the Zimbabwe starter kit. We have gone from sound money to clown money. That's another way to think of it. Oh, they say money doesn't grow on trees. That's true. It grows in spreadsheets. Now, though, one keystroke at the Fed and poof, there's another trillion just like that. Just hit the control, plus the print key. That's all it takes. All right. Well, let's take a look and see how this manifests in your life as a consumer and as a real estate investor and as a worker since January of 2020 to today, a $100,000 salary has the same buying power as 125k today. Guess over just the last five years, the dollar has lost 25% of its value, and now I'm talking in terms of the CPI here, the consumer price index. So of course, all these figures I'm using could really be higher, like we say, therefore these figures are only the inflation rate that the government is willing to admit to. How does this break down by region? So yes, we have 25% national inflation over five years, but different regions have different rates of inflation, including the region where you are, and this is due to reasons like climate and the composition of industries and even cultural preferences. For example, a southern climate with a lot of air conditioner use spends more on electricity. So if electricity costs are high there, then that region's inflation rate could be higher than that of a northern climate. A place like Omaha, Nebraska is proximous to a lot of agricultural crops and beef, but a place far from where those items are sourced could be more sensitive to changes in beef prices or less sensitive. So over the past five years, here's how much annual inflation in these select cities have experienced again, per the CPI from lowest to highest San Francisco is just 3.3% per year. So in San Fran your 100k salary in 2020 would need to be almost 118k today just to maintain purchasing power. New York City, 3.9% annual inflation over the last five years. Chicago, 4.2% Philly, 4.3 Seattle is at 4.8 Dallas, Fort Worth 4.9 St Louis, 5% Atlanta, 5.1 Miami, 5.4 we're really getting up there now. Phoenix, 5.9 San Diego, 6.1 and the major. Major city with the highest inflation rate over the past five years is Tampa, Florida, at 6.4% annually, Tampa's had some of the highest real estate appreciation over the past five years as well. So this means that a 100k salary five years ago in Tampa would have to be 128k today just to maintain purchasing power due to its 28% cumulative inflation the past five years. But that's the CPI. The real figure could be 40% plus in Tampa. All right, now this information is useful, because even if you believe that the CPI is understated, which most everyone that's looked at it does, as long as the methodology is consistent, you can see the regional variation here. Again, San Francisco was lowest at 3.3 Tampa about double at 6.4% the ever present force of inflation. It's merely surreptitious, until you have a big wave of it peaking in 2022 that everyone noticed. Let's look at how it's contributed to the real estate price run up since 2020 All right, so in the first quarter of this century, you might find this unbelievable in itself, in the year 2000 the median priced Florida home was 195k I mean, that's the median price. Then the investor sweet spot is usually lower than that. It might have been 130k in Florida in the year 2000 so again, 195k in Florida for the median home price as recently as 2000 today, it is 412k gosh, almost as surprising in Texas, It was just 153k in 2000 and it's 338k now, I mean, don't these prices like 153k in Texas, make it seem like the price for a dog house already, New York, 276k up to 576k Also from the year 2000 to today, Washington, DC, 293k up to 643k Colorado, 377, up to 582k Florida, more than doubling 393, up to 833 And Washington State also more than doubling 313k up to 630k my gosh, price increases like this. They're a function of both monetary inflation and appreciation, and it's really a chief reason that the Fed has not cut interest rates this year. It's because the memory of soaring inflation is still much too recent.

Keith Weinhold 38:05

To review what you've learned on this week's episode. Changes to realtor fees have made less industry impact than many expected. The smaller your down payment, the more powerful your leverage fulcrum. The return of 100% bonus depreciation has many investors, and even non investors, interested in adding income property to their portfolio, and staggering inflation is a motivator for adding real assets to your life. Hey, if you would, I would love it, and it would mean the world to me. If you found this episode valuable enough that you would share it with a friend. I put a lot of thought into it, just like I do every single week, friends are probably going to find explanations about realtor fees and bonus depreciation highly helpful this week, you can either share the episode by word of mouth or take a screenshot of this episode and put it on your social media. You might want to write out that it's get rich education in your social posts, because it only shows GRE on our podcast, cover image in some views. Thanks for telling a friend about the show. Until next week, I'm your host. Keith Weinhold, don't quit your Daydream.

Unknown Speaker 39:23

Keith Weinhold 39:47

You know, whenever you want the best written real estate and finance info, oh, geez, today's experience limits your free articles access and it's got paywalls and pop ups and push Notes. Vacations and cookies, disclaimers, it's not so great. So then it's vital to place nice, clean, free content into your hands that adds no hype value to your life. That's why this is the golden age of quality newsletters. And I write every word of ours myself. It's got a dash of humor, and it's to the point because even the word abbreviation is too long, my letter usually takes less than three minutes to read, and when you start the letter, you also get my one hour fast real estate video course, it's all completely free. It's called The Don't quit your Daydream. Letter. It wires your mind for wealth, and it couldn't be easier for you to get it right now. Just text gre to 66866, while it's on your mind, take a moment to do it right now. Text gre to 66866

Keith Weinhold 41:02

The preceding program was brought to you by your home for wealth building, getricheducation.com.

Direct download: GREepisode566_.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 4:00am EST

Mon, 4 August 2025

Keith discusses strategies to avoid capital gains tax on primary residences, highlighting the potential impact of the "No Tax on Home Sales Act" proposed by Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene.

He explains the current tax exemption thresholds of $250,000 for singles and $500,000 for married couples, noting that 34% of homeowners could exceed the single filer threshold.

Keith also explores the rise of small investors in the housing market, representing 30% of purchases, and the potential of peer-to-peer storage and parking platforms to generate income from underutilized property.

And concludes with a critique of government dependency through Section 8 housing.

Resources:

You can see the video footage of that section 8 clip here.

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564: The Real Estate "Crisis" That's Actually a Gift: 5% Mortgage Rates

Complete episode transcript:

Automatically Transcribed With Otter.ai

Keith Weinhold 0:01

Welcome to GRE. I'm your host. Keith Weinhold, when you sell your primary residence, you need to pay capital gains tax. Learn how to avoid it, then how to increase your rental income with new peer to peer platforms. And finally, a perspective on capitalism and collectivism, with Section Eight housing today on get rich education.

Speaker 1 0:27

Since 2014 the powerful get rich education podcast has created more passive income for people than nearly any other show in the world. This show teaches you how to earn strong returns from passive real estate investing in the best markets without losing your time being a flipper or landlord. Show Host Keith Weinhold writes for both Forbes and Rich Dad advisors, and delivers a new show every week since 2014 there's been millions of listener downloads of 188 world nations. He has a list show guests and key top selling personal finance author Robert Kiyosaki, get rich education can be heard on every podcast platform, plus it has its own dedicated Apple and Android listener phone apps build wealth on the go with the get rich education podcast. Sign up now for the get rich education podcast or visit get rich education.com

Speaker 1 1:12

You're listening to the show that has created more financial freedom than nearly any show in the world. This is get rich education.

Keith Weinhold 1:28

Welcome to GRE from st, Joseph, Missouri to st, Albans, Queens in New York City and across 188 nations worldwide. I'm Keith weinholden. You and I are back together here for another wealth building week. This is get rich education, the Treasury and the Fed keep conspiring to print dollars like crazy, create currency, debasing every single dollar that you're currently holding onto. They are stealing your purchasing power, stealing the value of your work and your grit. It makes dollars pretty fake, since they can just be conjured out of thin air, therefore your job is to convert fake dollars into real assets. That's what you need to do, and this is a strategy that dominates. Like Sydney Sweeney, they print more money, causing inflation, so you have to invest in assets, but then they put a capital gains tax on those assets so that most people never escape inflation. But of course, as real estate investors, we have a strategy to avoid capital gains taxes. Well, I'll talk about that more later.

Keith Weinhold 2:46

I mentioned to you on an earlier episode that I recently attended my high school class reunion in Pennsylvania. It was just a few weeks ago, out in a rural area with a lodge and trees and grass and inflation came up in a conversation between me and a few classmates that was some time before we played cornhole in badminton. I talked about how I sort of enjoy spending money. One classmate replied that he is cheap. I don't really directly respond to something like that, but my preeminent thought when someone says that they're cheap is that life is too short to be cheap. There is a way to guarantee an improvement to your quality of life and your standard of living, and that is spending it can do exactly that invest Well, first, that's an antecedent, and then you can spend now, in the short run, when you're young, living below your means that can make some sense, until you've accumulated some Capital, sure, but when you're age 30 to 35 plus, like my classmates and I are Sheesh, you've got to have yourself figured out better by then than to still be cheap make your quality of life exceed your cost of living, because at least here on Earth, this is your last life ever the risk of too much delayed gratification is denied gratification. So be more frugal with your time than your money. And a lot of people point to external circumstances for their circumstances. Most people wait for the economy to change, not realizing that your mindset is the economy that you live in with each property that you own, you just created another small economy that you are in control of. You are at the top of it. Yeah, you created. Another small economy, the actors in it are you, your tenant, your lender, your property manager, your contractors, your utility companies and more, and you control it all. Most people think wealth is created from high salaries, and they go their entire life, therefore chasing the wrong thing, thinking that wealth is created by high salaries all along it squarely is not you get wealthy by owning things, and you certainly won't get wealthy by being cheap. Now, when it comes to owning things, the government taxes you when you profit on those things during your ownership period of them at sale time through the capital gains tax. And of course, we've talked about the specifics in how real estate investors can completely duck out of that with the 1031 tax deferred exchange. But what about homeowners, primary residence owners, they often have to pay it well. President Trump and Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene recently suggested either removing this tax or reforming it. Now this would require congressional approval, but most members of Congress own their home, so they could very well be in favor of it. And green introduced what is simply called the no tax on home sales act.

Keith Weinhold 6:29

Let's discuss how this can affect you, especially if you're a homeowner, or even if you don't own a home under the current law, which has been in place since 1997 on a primary residence, your first 250k of profit is sheltered from tax if you're single, the first 500k is sheltered if you're married. This is called the primary residence capital gains tax exemption or exclusion. Let's use an example. Say you bought a home years ago for 500k you're married and you sell the home for $1.3 million that's an 800k gain, alright? Since the first 500k is sheltered from capital gains tax, you would therefore have to pay the tax on just 300k on all but the lowest earners, your capital gains tax is 15 to 20% so this means if you sell this home on that 300k of profit, you'd have to pay a tax bill of between $45k and $60k and you might not be done there. You could also be subject to a net investment income tax of 3.8% on top of that, you cannot duck out of this because the 1031 exchange that's only for investment property, not primary residences, like we're talking about today, with home prices on the rise so much over the last five years, how many people exactly could be subject to this tax? 34% of homeowners could exceed the single filer threshold, and 10% could exceed the married filer threshold. Another way to say this is that only about 10% of US homes have more than 500k of equity in them, and it's the homeowners in high cost states that are most likely to be impacted here, New York, New Jersey, Massachusetts, California and Hawaii, states like that. So therefore this tax it acts as a deterrent to people selling their homes. Now, what about, say, an elderly person with a really modest income that bought a home in Los Angeles for $30,000 back in 1970 and now it's worth $15 million well, they actually would not get caught in this net, because, like I said, for those with lower incomes, and it's below about 47k for single or 94k married, the capital gains tax rate is zero. For most of you listening again, it's going to be 15 to 20% one reason for the President and others wanting to cancel the capital gains tax on primary residences like this is to get the housing market moving again and get more homes available for sale on the market. Now these 250k and 500k thresholds, they have not moved since 1997 almost 30 years here, they haven't been adjusted for inflation and the median home sales price, it's jumped about 190% in that time it was 145k back in 1997 it's 435k today. So is. Home prices appreciate, more and more people will get caught up in paying the capital gains tax if your home value goes up by 10k That's another 10k that's subject to this 15 to 20% Capital Gains Tax, with that erstwhile possible net investment income tax on top of that. Well, what can you do about this growing capital gains tax obligation that you'll have that a lot of homeowners aren't even aware of? Well, even fewer realize that it is possible to reduce your home sales profit by adding capital improvements. That means making home renovations to the original purchase price. So therefore that home kitchen renovation that you were thinking about doing, well that might not be as costly as you think, if it reduces your capital gains tax at sale time to reset what we're talking about here, it's been proposed that the capital gains tax be removed when you sell your primary residence. Usually, we discuss tax on investment properties here, but this is a significant proposal, and whether it happens or not, it helps you understand the housing market and how to limit your personal tax hit now see if the tax were removed, it could be costly, because it would decrease the government's tax revenue, of course. So in my opinion, what I think is really going to happen here, a more likely course of action would be that instead of eliminating this tax they would just move up the threshold, say, from 250 and 500k up to 500k and $1 million another angle to keep in mind is that relaxing the tax that helps out wealthy people more than it helps the poor. Now, house flippers want to pay particular attention to what happens here, for instance, simply eliminating capital gains tax on house sales that could benefit those who buy and flip homes for profit. If policymakers want to benefit only homeowners, then they need to parse that out. Otherwise, this would be a huge boon to eliminating the capital gains tax on House flippers an absolute godsend, a windfall. In any case, relaxing the tax would mean that homeowners who move they would therefore retain more capital to reinvest in their next property, which you could use to outbid others. What does that do that would drive up home prices even more. I mean talking about the capital gains tax on primary residences, its proposal to be removed and what this would do to the housing market.

Keith Weinhold 12:50

Before I tell you about an interesting real estate investing niche and trend, let's pull back and look at the national housing market. The NAR recently let us know that national home prices hit yet another all time high. The median existing home price reached a record high of $435,300 and that is a 2% increase compared to last year. At this time, it's also the 24th consecutive month of year over year price increases. And you know, it's funny, I recently talked to an investor based in Phoenix that also does a little investing in Las Vegas. She thought that national home prices were falling because she sees a little price flattening in her home area, which is a little overbuilt. Well, prices are up as much as 10% in some areas of the Northeast and Midwest, because those areas are substantially underbuilt. I mean, for some perspective here just one metro area, New York City, one city with its population of over 20 million people, has twice as many people as both Arizona at 7 million and Nevada at just 3 million combined. One city twice as much as two entire states combined with all their cities. So it's remarkable how little perspective some people have see my geography degree holder perspective strikes once more again, national existing home prices are up 2% year over year, nominally, pretty modest growth, not that exciting. And who is doing the buying of these homes supporting and driving up prices. Well fewer and through of them are first time home buyers due to the well documented affordability strain. More and more of them are investors. Just last week, the Wall Street Journal reported that investors are responsible for fully 30% of the purchases of. Of both existing homes and new construction homes this year, and this is the highest share since property analytics firm kotality started tracking it 14 years ago. Investors are really buying today, and what kind of investors? Interestingly, it is people just like you. The Wall Street Journal went on to report that smaller investors who own fewer than 100 homes are doing most of the buying. That's a big change from when massive private equity firms like Blackstone and Starwood Capital Group dominated the market. So this 30% of single family home purchases being made by investors today. Smaller investors are 25% and larger ones only accounted for 5% so yeah, the little guys, people like you, they can take bigger risks because they don't have boards and shareholders to answer to, and plus builders with too much inventory are offering them discounts that were once reserved only for the bigger fish. They're being passed on now to smaller investors like you. That's exactly what the journal went on to say, much like we discussed on the show here last week, where builders are giving massive discounts.

Keith Weinhold 16:22

Well, you probably heard it said that Airbnb doesn't own any real estate. Uber doesn't own any cars. Facebook doesn't own any content, and Tiktok has no original videos. Yet, they all dominate their industries. Well, when you own the real estate, you can make the rules and leverage some of these connector platforms to help you rent out space that you own and increase your income. Do you own any property that's sitting vacant with nothing going on on the lot, perhaps even overgrown with weeds and shrubs. You can use an app like neighbor that helps you rent them out as parking spaces. Neighbor.com customers request your space, and you can approve it. They can park their cars on your space or RVs, boats, boats, trailers. This can be especially lucrative if you're a few miles from an airport, and then there are platforms that let you leverage them, sort of like the Airbnb of storage. Roughly one out of every nine Americans is renting a self storage unit, and that's not even counting all the people searching for a spot to park an extra car, boat or RV. At the same time, there are millions of garages, basements, attics, driveways and backyards sitting underutilized across the country now, platforms like store at my house, Pure Storage and park for share, that one is spelled Park, the number four and share, they're all stepping up to connect people who have extra space with the people that need it. And the result is that renters can typically save 50% or more compared to them using traditional storage companies they can rent from you, and it's often more convenient for renters, since the space they're renting that might be just around the corner instead of across town. Neighbor.com is one of the biggest players in this space, though, its founder, his name's Joseph Woodbury. He says you'd be amazed at what people will pay to store something if the location is good and the price is right, they have had a tiny three foot by five foot closet in Manhattan that rented out in a snap, almost instantly in Woodbury. He even uses the platform himself, leasing part of his own driveway to someone with a camper. Now, you probably want to check with your HOA before you do something like that. But like Airbnb neighbor, they earn money by taking a cut of the host's revenue. But unlike Airbnb neighbor, hosts average just 16 minutes per month managing their listings now Woodbury, the neighbor.com owner, he calls it the most efficient, least time intensive form of passive income in America. And the peer to peer storage trend, that's become a great entry point for new investors, especially those that aren't ready to buy a full property. But it's also catching the eye of experience real estate investors who want to squeeze more cash flow out of the land that you already own. Some are turning unused sheds into rentable storage units. Others are converting open acreage into long term parking. I know someone that's hosting campers and. RVs on his 10 acres in Florida, and he expects to earn about $100,000 this year alone from that land. And they say it's mostly hands off. And now, whenever he buys he looks for acreage plus a home so that he can generate multiple income streams from one property. Well, can this peer storage and parking shake up the $500 billion self storage and parking industry the same way that Airbnb rattled the hotel world? Some think the potential is huge, with national occupancy rates for storage centers hovering around 93% there really is not any sign that the market is oversupplied. In fact, even public storage, that's the company name, public storage, they are the country's largest self storage space operator, even they use neighbor to help lease out their leftover inventory, and so do some REITs that have extra space at their office, retail or apartment properties. And as far as the types of listings, people are getting creative on these platforms. They're monetizing everything from empty barns to church parking lots. Think about how much of the week church parking lots sit vacant to vacant strip mall storefronts, and they're using that as parking so more and more people are realizing that there's hidden value in the real estate that they already own, and you can too. If you own the real estate, you make the rules. So check out those four platforms that I mentioned, if you think it can benefit you to increase the income at your properties in this growing peer to peer storage and parking industry. It was around 2010 when Airbnb really started to take off and really take market share away from hotels, and today, these platforms like neighbor store at my house, peer storage and park for share, are taking market share away from traditional, centralized self storage spaces to review what you've learned so far today, if you're going to Live life full time, you can't be perpetually cheap. Be aware of the primary residence capital gains tax and its elimination proposal. Small investor interest is growing now, making up fully 30% of today's home purchases, and grow your income with Pure Storage and parking platforms coming up next, a viral audio clip that borders on the unbelievable and gives you a new perspective on capitalism, collectivism and Section Eight housing, you'll be flabbergasted. I'm Keith Weinhold. You're listening to Episode 565, of get rich education.

Keith Weinhold 23:00

the same place where I get my own mortgage loans is where you can get yours. Ridge lending group and MLS, 42056,they provided our listeners with more loans than anyone because they specialize in income properties. They help you build a long term plan for growing your real estate empire with leverage. Start your pre qual and even chat with President Caeli Ridge personally. While it's on your mind, start at Ridge lendinggroup.com. That's Ridge lendinggroup.com.

Keith Weinhold 23:32

Kathy Fettke 24:42

you this is the real wealth network's Kathy betke, and you are listening to the always valuable get rich education with Keith Weinhold.

Keith Weinhold 25:00

Keith, you are back inside one of America's longest running and most listened to real estate investing shows. I'm your host, Keith Weinhold, and this is get rich education, the voice of real estate investing. Since 2014 wealthy people's money either starts out or ends up in real estate, we tell you why and show you how. I've got a clip to share with you that gets a little wild. We usually share what I suppose is more cerebral content here, but some real perspective can be gleaned from listening to this. This kid wants to work his mom says, No, you can't, because she'd lose her section eight housing benefit. And apparently, free housing is more valuable than his future. This is about one minute in length,

Unknown Speaker 25:52

not getting no job. If you go get a job, they're going to take my section eight, then you won't be able to get no section eight. You're not going to get no job. They're gonna count your income against my section eight and my link card. You're not working, no. So I don't care what you gotta say. I don't care how you feel. You're not working, you're not going to get a job, you you're not going to school, you're not doing none of that like Ma. I'm saying how I'm supposed to be successful in life, huh? So you basically telling me I gotta I gotta be broke to be successful. I got to be broke so I can get section eight. Government can help you. So the government can help me. So you telling me I can't work, no job, bro. Like, that's like, all my friends got jobs and live and nice houses. So you telling me I got the I got to go through the same thing you went through if you have a house, any of that, they're going to take my section eight. How? What they be like,no, they will look at that and be like, he's doing something. And give me a bigger house. Ma, that's what you told me. I can get off your section eight and apply for my own section eight. Okay, but if you do that, you're gonna have to go the hard way. It's gonna take a long so what? That's what I'm saying. Get on Section Eight. Find you a nice apartment, go get you a link card. You will be fine. You don't have to sit up and work. You don't have to work, no job, if the government is here to help us.

Keith Weinhold 27:11

Gosh, this mom won't let her son work, or else she'll lose their government section eight housing benefit, where taxpayers pay for most of their housing. And by the way, is this real? Is this a rage bait skit? I can't quite tell, but it surfaces some interesting questions. For sure, it is true that section eight housing voucher recipients like her can lose their benefits if the household earns more and exceeds a certain threshold. Gosh, here's the youth that wants to do something and maybe be better and have more than his parents. You should want what's best for your child? Some parents have to beg their children to get a job. This kid is willing to go out and see what he's capable of doing. This eaglet is looking to leave the nest, and you're clipping his wings, and yes, you the listener, are the one paying for their housing. There's no such thing as a free government program, because taxpayers like you and I fund the government section eight housing is therefore tax payer funded at one point. The mom says the government is here to help us. Yeah, this woman is making you poorer. This is where the taxes that get knocked out of your paycheck are going. You're working at a job, spending less time with the people you love, and maybe doing fewer of the activities you love so that she can perpetuate a culture of laziness and government dependency. Another successful entrepreneur or employee is not making you poorer, this woman is making you poorer. Thomas Sowell said it best. He is an author and a senior fellow at the Hoover Institution. He's got a lot of brilliant thoughts. Soul famously said, I have never understood why it is greed to want to keep the money you have earned, but not greed to want to take somebody else's money. That's Thomas Sowell. Now it's possible that this woman couldn't get a job that would pay so much more than the section eight income ceiling that it would be worth her getting one. She said there that she doesn't have a job at all. Maybe she has a disability, but there's a video of this. You can see the video. She doesn't appear to be disabled, but the appalling part is that she's discouraging her son from working now. Understand some section eight tenants do work full time jobs, but they're almost certainly going to be really low paying like, say, washing dishes for a restaurant. Section Eight is supposed to be a temporary program. It's supposed to be helpful, not a hindrance. It is a federal program. It's administered by HUD, and it pays the rent money for low income people, allowing them to rent housing out in the private open market. The program has high demand and some long, long waiting lists. They can be years long, even a decade long, waiting list for Section Eight housing some housing authorities even close their wait lists entirely due to the length the overwhelming demand and understand as well, veterans and the elderly are probably on a wait list, waiting for substantially younger people like her to get off the program to qualify for Section Eight, most families need an income below 50% of the area's median income, and your criminal background check has got to be clear, so you don't need to pass some high bar to get into the program. Now, in reality, a large share of the benefit recipients have an income that's under 30% of an area's median and how much of your rent does section eight pay? Participants typically pay a portion of their monthly income toward rent, usually around 30% they pay around 30% where section eight pays 70% I once run into a section eight tenant, and the tenant paid closer to 20% while the program paid 80% for you. And by the way, landlords don't have to accept section eight tenants. It is voluntary, and it pays landlords about the market rate in hot housing markets with fast rising rents. Well, you probably don't want to accept section eight because a regular, unsubsidized tenant is often going to pay you more in a slow rental market, Section Eight is better for landlords. Now, some landlords like section eight because it is guaranteed rent income, but some don't like it because they say they get low quality tenants. Well, foreign landlord can rent to a section eight tenant, a person called a case manager inspects the unit, and I think I shared with you before that, the first one that inspected mine, they wrote me up because they said that one of my Windows didn't open all the way. I fixed it, and the tenant stayed two years before they moved. But the average duration of time that a tenant spends in the program is six to nine years. It is supposed to be a short term bridge, but often becomes a long term subsidy people get dependent on the handout. HUD tells us that only one in seven families leave the program due to increased income, and there is a strong stigma around section eight housing, for sure. Who knows? To shake the stigma, maybe they will just change the name of the program. That happens sometimes, sort of like how they changed the name of the food stamps program to snap. And by the way, the link card that she mentioned in the video that is for food assistance. That's actually the name of the snap card in the state of Illinois. Oh, dear God bless America, training her kids to live off the government. I almost feel trashy after thinking about this. I'm probably going to go shower next now. Should the minimum wage be high enough that everyone can afford at least a one bedroom apartment, and therefore people wouldn't need section eight? Well, the federal minimum wage is $7.25 it's been stuck there since 2009 the economic commentator Peter Schiff, who I had lunch with a couple times last month, he and his wife Peter, makes the case that there should be no minimum wage at all. That is government intervention in the free market. If you make the minimum wage too high, people get laid off and people get replaced by robots. That's just what's really happened in practice, if a person can only make the minimum wage, they need to get better, and they need to skill up, is what Peter contends. Now, when I graduated college, I would have thought that premise sounded ridiculous. No minimum wage. But the more I think about it and the more I experience life, it does begin to make more sense. The fresh post collegiate me would have said that, ah, a working human being, they deserve the dignity of a minimum wage. That's livable, but some time and perspective has me saying that you are the one that brings dignity to your work, your earning potential and your life. It's not up to someone else to provide you with dignity. You don't lean on the government for your dignity. Learn more, be better, skill up. You'll be dignified, and you're going to earn multiples more than minimum wage. When it comes to the section eight, mom, everyone would like to live at the expense of the state, but few realize that the state lives at the expense of everyone else. If you'd like to see the video footage of that section eight clip that I played and more of my commentary on it. It's pretty interesting that should be available on our YouTube channel now. The channel name is get rich education. What else would it be for the production team here at GRE? That's our sound engineer, Vedran Dzampo , who has edited every single GRE episode since 2014, QC and show notes. Brenda Almendadadas, video lead, Binaya Gyawali video strategy lead, Talha Mughal, video editor, Sorosa KC and producer me, we'll run it back next week for you. If you'd like the show, please tell a friend about it. I'd really appreciate you sharing it until then, I'm your host. Keith Weinhold, don't quit your Daydream.

36:29

Nothing on this show should be considered specific, personal or professional advice. Please consult an appropriate tax, legal, real estate, financial or business professional for individualized advice if the means of guests are their own information is not guaranteed. All investment strategies have the potential for profit or loss. The host is operating on behalf of get rich Education LLC exclusively.

Keith Weinhold 36:53

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Keith Weinhold 38:08

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Direct download: GREepisode565_.mp3
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Mon, 28 July 2025

Keith discusses the impact of inflation and interest rates on real estate investing, emphasizing passive income strategies.

He highlights the Florida housing market, noting a 26% increase in listings post-pandemic.

Investor and Florida homebuilder, Jim, joins this episode to explain the overbuilding in the emotional market versus the underbuilt workforce housing.

His company focuses on new construction in areas like Ocala, offering 40-year loans with 5.25% fixed rates, and boasting an average tenancy duration of over three years. They also provide two years of free property management and a 10-year builder warranty.

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563: Are College Towns Doomed? Housing Supply Grows, More Apartment Loan Implosions with Hannah Hammond

Complete episode transcript:

Automatically Transcribed With Otter.ai

Keith Weinhold 0:01

welcome to GRE. I'm your host. Keith Weinhold, what control do you have over inflation and interest rates? Then, with the Florida housing oversupply and resultant attrition and price levels, wouldn't it be interesting to talk to a prominent Florida homebuilder? That's just what we do today on get rich education.

Speaker 1 0:27

Since 2014 the powerful get rich education podcast has created more passive income for people than nearly any other show in the world. This show teaches you how to earn strong returns from passive real estate investing in the best markets without losing your time being a flipper or landlord. Show Host Keith Weinhold writes for both Forbes and Rich Dad advisors and delivers a new show every week since 2014 there's been millions of listener downloads in 188 world nations. He has a list show guests and key top selling personal finance author Robert Kiyosaki, get rich education can be heard on every podcast platform, plus it has its own dedicated Apple and Android listener phone apps build wealth on the go with the get rich education podcast. Sign up now for the get rich education podcast, or visit get rich education.com

Speaker 2 1:12

You're listening to the show that has created more financial freedom than nearly any show in the world. This is get rich education.

Keith Weinhold 1:28

Welcome to GRE from coral, Illinois to Cape Coral, Florida and across 180 nations worldwide. I'm Keith weinholden. You are inside for another wealth building week. This is get rich education, the voice of real estate investing since 2014 with inflation on the upswing and is currently approaching 3% again, the formula is small. Down payment. Bank buys you the house. Tenants pay down the loan. Property Manager handles nearly everything. You collect cash every month. Inflation builds you massive wealth, and that's real estate, all right. And no one really knows what's going to happen with inflation and interest rates, those two positively correlated indicators, but at times we have an illustrious guest that will make a prediction. And GRE episode 224, from January of 2019 has been getting some attention lately. That's back when interest rates of all types were really low, and when I interviewed legendary investor Jim Rogers in Singapore, listen in to what he told you, and I on that episode, then

Speaker 3 2:49

you ask me, we're now headed up again, and interest rates are going to go go much, much, much higher over the next few decades, and it's going to ruin a lot of people. I hope none of your listeners get ruined. I hope I don't get ruined, but rising interest rates are here for a long time. Keith, be worried. Be careful.

Keith Weinhold 3:08

Yeah, some real Jim Rogers prescience there in Episode 224 he has seen some cycles. Now as investors, we've got regional phenomena and national phenomenon mortgage rates. They're a national one, because more or less, whenever you finance property anywhere in the nation, your rate is going to be the same nationwide. Perhaps you feel then like you don't have any control over your mortgage rate. Well, I've got two points to that. First, understand that today, mortgage spreads are almost back to normal. Now, what does that mean? Mortgage spreads from listening to the show, you probably know that the mortgage rate you pay is dictated more on the level of bond yields than it is the Fed funds rate that your own Powell controls. Well, 30 year mortgage rates are historically almost 2% above the bond yield, meaning they're 2% above the yield on the 10 year T note, okay, that's the bond yield. The spread was recently above 3% now it is down to about two and a half. To be clear, mortgage rates are now just about two and a half percent above bond yields in this narrowing, that means there's more investor confidence in the mortgage market, and that suggests that lenders are willing to offer loans at competitive rates without succumbing to volatility. So lenders are less concerned about the risk of you quickly refinancing out of the loan that they just worked to make for you, the translation is that this opens the door to make it easier for mortgage rates to fall to 6% and they've been nearly seven for a while. Though I don't predict rates. I'm speaking about probabilities here. Now some people want to lock up property before rates fall, because when rates fall, many think home prices will surge because more people can afford property than higher demand. And I think we all know that the conventional wisdom is to lock in your price now and then if rates fall, you refinance. Conversely, if rates go higher, well then you'll be glad you bought today when rates were lower. But today we're talking about how you can really control the mortgage rate you pay when you work with a builder that won't only see that your mortgage rate gets bought down, they'll ensure that they are the ones paying for the pie down, not you. That's key, as we talked to a home builder in Florida today, a state that makes headlines for being overbuilt, it's a case study in how a market gets to an overbuilt condition, or does it really get overbuilt? It depends on this segment of the real estate market that you're focused on as an investor, as you'll see today, let's meet this week's guest.

Keith Weinhold 6:05

I'd like to welcome Jim onto the show today. He's one of the founding partners of a prominent Florida home builder. They built over 9000 residences, and they have 120 plus full time employees, and it's been such an interesting time in Florida home building and the real estate market, so that's why we're chatting today. Hey Jim, welcome onto the show. Keith, great to be back. Thanks for having me. Let's talk about the problem statewide. Florida has about 26% more listings, more available housing inventory, as compared to pre pandemic levels. That's created some problems, some price attrition. Talk about, why did Florida get over built? Or are they not truly overbuilt when we segment that by product type.

Jim Sheils 7:02

Well, like you said, Keith, product type is really important to decipher here, because it does help dissect the problem a little more clearly. There's a lot of different markets happening, but two of the main things that I've seen that have caused the softening of certain segments of the market is one insurance if you are buying a 1957 home in southwest Florida, a few blocks from the beach, it is possible that your insurance has gone up four to five times. Yeah, the annual thing. So that is going to really start to shake people who own those properties. They're going to feel a little triggered to sell, and it's going to be more difficult to sell, because if you have an agent go and show that property and they ask for a good faith estimate from a lender, and they say, Well, what's your current insurance? That can really scare people. So that type of property normally properties older before 2004 when the rules changed, with higher insurance, that can change it. The second thing is, the emotional market always seems to take a hit, Keith, and I've heard you talk about this before. Now, the emotional market that I talk about is we have our median value in any of the real estate markets, right? And you go about 25% above the median, maybe 30% above the median values. That's what I call the emotional market. These are the really nice houses that are fun to visit. You know, nice to stay in, nice to live in, but they are emotional. This is an emotional market. The cash flow numbers have never worked. They're not on the ultra high end that those people normally own cash and they don't really care the fluctuation. It's that level above the median where I see the emotional market really take the hit, because when the emotion comes out, while the people it's harder to sell to find the buyers, especially with the rates jumping the way that they have over the last two years, there's not the ability to sit back and say, Well, you know what, Keith, I'm just going to hold this and rent it, because their negative position, their negative cash flow every month, begins to sink them quickly, and so that's where you see that pressure downward on that emotional market. If that makes any sense.

Keith Weinhold 9:06

did Florida really get ahead of itself with the increase in pandemic migration? Was there more building because they projected that high migration rate to continue, and it just didn't. Is that why areas of Florida are overbuilt.

Jim Sheils 9:22

What I believe happened was the migration was there, Keith, but again, you have to look at the sectors of the market. Now, when you're looking at a large national home builder, their goal is to sell the property with the greatest profit spread. It's just that simple, and those are the properties when times are good and times are hot, this emotional market, you know, 20, 30% above the median value for an area that's a very easy time to promote and to sell those types of properties and make the best spread for them. And so, yes, in that area, they got ahead of themselves, because it was easy to market to, easy to promote to. And again. In. Some people untrained investors, or people just emotional and saying, Well, I'm gonna have a second home in Florida, and I'll get there more often than I think I will. That causes that issue now, but going to the lower segment, like the workforce housing, like you and I have talked about, well, that has been underprepared for the migration and affordability. That is my word of the year, affordability, the affordable housing, the workforce housing. When you look at the stats, I think it was last year we found the stat that for every 25 workforce housing, new construction workforce housing, there's 100 renters. And so the workforce housing has been underdeveloped, and why? You know, we're a niche builder. It's very rare for a builder like us to focus on workforce housing. That's not the focus of many of the larger builders. They're on that more emotional market. So that's where we focus. But with builders like us focusing on that, no one else that part of the market, Keith has been under supplied, actually in the last few years, because the net migration didn't need those emotional houses. They needed the workforce housing.

Keith Weinhold 11:05

This is a great distinction. We can look at a stat like there's 26% more available housing inventory in Florida statewide than there was pre pandemic, but you've got to parse that by product type, workforce housing, which you specialize in, including build to rent, housing has not been oversupplied, not nearly to that same extent. It could even be undersupplied, depending on where you're at. These are the properties that make the best long term income properties. I hope you the listener caught it there. Jim gave an important date. 2004 is a key year when there were changes to building codes, which results in what your insurance premiums are going to be. Tell us more about that.

Jim Sheils 11:50

Yeah, 2004 right through Punta Gorda, Florida, where we build now. There was Hurricane Charlie came through. My dad's cousin, I have actually lived there at the time. I mean, that place got decimated. Keith, it got absolutely decimated, and the government called timeout. They said, timeout. Okay, we got to stop this. New rules. Moving forward, we're going to change the structural design requirements. We're going to change the elevation requirements. This is the big one. So you know, back in the day, you and I, if we were back in 1962 in Fort Myers, Florida, we could build a house at two feet or three feet above sea level. Those days are gone. If you're going to build a property like going back to Punta Gordon, now today, you have to build it 13 to 14 feet above sea level. So that means builders like us got to bring in a lot of dirt, and we grumble and complain about it until a storm goes through and we have no flooding on any of our properties. But that was a requirement, then stronger fasteners and structural design, because they just didn't want that risk or this type of damage. And it's been interesting, because they've been two hurricanes, you know, since 2004 that have really gone right over the eye. The main power of the storm has gone through. Punta Gorda. I've actually showed this on some videos that we've done on YouTube, like the flyover the next day, and you would think, Oh, well, maybe there was like a strong wind that went through, because there's palm fronds down and some fencing, but the houses are intact, and it's because things had to be rebuilt to today's standards. So I always tell people, hey, you know, we'd love to help you get a house, but if you're just going down there to find a house, I would highly recommend you look at the elevation and look if your house was built before the year 2004 or after, because that is really when things started to change. Not that a house earlier might not have what you're looking for, but elevation is such a key component when you're near coastal areas in Florida, the elevation of your home.

Keith Weinhold 13:41

Is it that simple? Pre 2004 you're likely to pay substantially higher insurance premiums on your Florida property than you are if the build year was 2004 or later.

Jim Sheils 13:52

It's a main component, Keith, another component will be to that is, you know, how close are you to the beach? If you're within, you know, a half a mile of the beach that can have an on lower ground of an older property, those combinations for risk analysis for an insurance company will come up not in your favor, and so you have to put that into account too. Again, the further you move inland, especially the further you move north, and the further you move inland in Florida, the insurance premiums go down because the risk assessment of the last 100 Years of hurricanes has been so much dramatically lower of actually causing issue.

Keith Weinhold 14:29

We'll talk about the Florida areas that you build in later. But first, let's just pull back. Talk about statewide. How bad is it? How bad is it with the overbuilt condition in some segments of the residential market, and how that's led to price attrition, a lack of rent growth or rental occupancy rates that are hurt potentially. Can you speak to that? How bad is it now,

Jim Sheils 14:54

again, going to the segment of the emotional market, so we're talking 20 to 30% above the median. In price in an area that's going to be bad, that's where you're going to have to have downward pressure. You're going to have to your property may have appreciated Well, if you did in 2020, but you're not selling a peak pricing. You're going to have to come off your numbers a good amount, because there's not as many buyers. And also, you got to remember, coupled with that pricing coming down, it's also the interest rates we got pretty spoiled. You know, three and a half percent interest rates, two and a half percent interest rates for some homeowners, that's just not the norm now. So when you're going off those numbers, the affordability, the ability to make that payment, has really been affected. So that emotional market, I think we're going to see a continued softening in that and again, in that emotional market too. To what I saw was, and I own some short term rentals, and I like short term rentals, but what we saw there was a rush, like, almost like a California gold rush, here in Florida, to people coming in and buying what they consider a short term rental, which was not really desirable for short term rent. It could get a few people here and there, but they would buy it, this emotional market, and then the numbers wouldn't work out. Now that, as well, is starting to put pressure on people saying, Oh, I'm losing so much money every month. Let's just sell and again, that emotional market, that area, 20, 25% 30% above median value. That's where we're seeing that. So you're going to see some pressure downward of that, I'd say at least another 10% because there's already been a dip in some areas 15 to 20% so there has been a correction in those and I think we'll continue to see that until some of this stabilizes.

Keith Weinhold 16:32

Talk to us about how the rental segment's doing, statewide

Jim Sheils 16:36

rental, we saw a stagnation for about a year and a half to two years, and just in the last six months, we've seen an increase in some of our main markets here. Again, when I say they main markets here, I'm always speaking, because that's what we stick to, the workforce housing. So we've seen workforce housing some of our main central Florida markets and some of our Northeast markets go up another 50 to $100 which was great, because it was stagnant for about two years. About two years. And then you'll see a continued dip of probably, you know, 10 to 15% on some of that emotional market rentals, because now there's a rush to try to rent them, and again, there's not as much of a demand for that segment of the market.

Keith Weinhold 17:17

We're talking with a prominent Florida home builder about Florida's temporarily overbuilt residential housing type. We've already learned that 2004 is a key year for what your insurance rates are likely going to be. We've also learned about how you need to segment these residential housing markets between workforce housing and the emotional side of the market. You're listening to get rich education more when we come back on Florida real estate, I'm your host, Keith Weinhold.

Keith Weinhold 17:46

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Keith Weinhold 18:18

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Kristen Tate 19:29

this is author Kristen Tate. Listen to get rich education with Keith Weinhold, and don't quit your Daydream. You

Keith Weinhold 19:46

welcome back to get rich education. Jim is with us, a prominent Florida home builder, and it's so interesting to talk to a home builder today because you think a Florida is overbuilding Ground Zero, even though, paradoxically. Nationally, we're still in a somewhat under built condition, where there's somewhat of a lack of available housing supply. Now, back on our April 28 show, exactly three months ago today, which I know that you listened to Jim, that show was titled, is Florida real estate doomed? And the short answer is no and I gave a number of reasons for that. You don't want to catch a falling knife as an investor. One prominent reason that Florida real estate is not doomed, and you're not catching a falling knife, and this is so close to being 100% predictable, is the fact that the growth is going to be there. It always has been in Florida, the in migration has been remarkable. If you go back and look at every census over about the last 200 years, since 1830 Florida has grown substantially every single census, oftentimes and usually at a rate greater than the national average. So in migration is almost certainly going to continue, which, over the long term, will put upward pressure on prices, upward pressure on rents, and help with rental occupancy as well. When you have a vacancy, that next incoming tenant is going to be there, I think that's about as close to predictable as it can possibly get. So talk to us more about the dynamics in Florida and the in migration.

Jim Sheils 21:26

It's funny, Keith, last year the net migration, and you can check through all the stats out there. The net migration number for Florida, that means more people, obviously coming in than leaving, and the surplus was just about 470,000 so we still have a growth of 470,000 and people have set up. Florida. Net migration is over. And I'm going, well, it was pretty superb during the pandemic, but to say it's over when it's about a half million up from last year, I think would be a misconception for at the very least. So we feel the people are still coming, and we're asking, what kind of housing do they need? Do they need that higher end, emotional market housing? Not what we're seeing, what they're needing is affordability. They're going to areas where there's still great job source, there's still great affordability, and that's what we look for. Where can we still build a new construction, single family home for under $300,000 and have great job source close by. That's one of the things that we look for. Also, where is there that under supply of that workforce housing? There are very key markets in Florida that you know about that we build in. We're saying, yeah, there's lots of stuff on the market up there, but there is no supply of this workforce housing. We're going to keep building. And as you know, we have not stopped building the last two years, when a lot of people have run for the sidelines because they weren't in our sector of the market.

Keith Weinhold 22:48

Of course, you're very strategic about where you build geographically. Talk to us about where those places are

Jim Sheils 22:54

right now. Keith, my pick of the year has been the greater Ocala region, and I know we've been working with a lot of GRE folks in that region. Couple of reasons why, still had the strongest migration of any area in the US. And you can look that up. U haul had it as number one destination place. This was when I say greater Ocala. I look at Ocala, citrus springs, Inverness, that central Florida area. You know, still in some of those markets, Keith, we're building homes for 200 60s, 270,000 that's new construction, and enabled to get great rent and great financing, which no we'll talk about. And the job source is remarkable right now. In fact, interesting statistic, Keith, I know you watch this closely. In Ocala, the median price of a home is just around 300,000 main Ocala, you can get cheaper when you go out to citrus springs and Inverness, down to the 260s 270s but the median family income is 72,000 and when you look at that, that is a very good affordability index. That's very high average family income compared to a low median price, and that's bringing in more jobs. That's bringing in more security. Couple that with Central Florida being one of the lowest hurricane risk zones in the state. It's the highest ground. It's the furthest inland, in fact, to ensure a single family home on average in that area, about $65 a month for full coverage, wow, for a duplex, $105 a month, full coverage. And that's the advantage of new construction buying in the right areas or low hurricane risk zone and great job source coming in. So my favorite market right now, Keith, is that Central Florida, Ocala, citrus springs, Inverness, that's where we're building. Oh, that's also when people say it's overbuilt. Well, no, because we know that we're actually building for a few of the big institutions that have way bigger analysis departments than we do, and they're seeing that it's so behind on housing that people are finally going in. It was kind of an overlooked market all through the pandemic for the most part, and now it's finally getting people's attention.

Keith Weinhold 24:58

A couple months ago. On the show, I shared how a close friend purchased a new build Ocala duplex through you, the rents he got were even a little higher than you projected, and his insurance premium is $694 again, this is for a duplex. I forget. I think the purchase price was 400 to 420k on this new build property.

Jim Sheils 25:23

Yeah. And it's funny when people, we have lots of investors coming from all over, but I was in California's, know, for years. And when people hear a quote like that, like that, you just said 650, $6 they think that's for the month. And I say, No, no, no, that's for the year. And again, that's the misconception now, but you could pick up and you could go to a coastal area again, like I said in a 1952 duplex built at two feet above sea level that's had hurricane issues before, and your insurance could be $8,000 a year. Yeah, that's where you have to really shop before you actually pull the trigger on property. What are the taxes? What are the insurance? I mean, this is going back to core play, core strategy, but it's something you really have to look at

Keith Weinhold 26:07

talk to us about the product types that you're offering, all new build, and what percent of single family, duplexes and larger

Jim Sheils 26:15

the main majority of what we're building right now is single family and duplex. The numbers work great. They're in high demand. You know, duplexes are a pretty interesting product, Keith, because you can put them in single family home neighborhoods, and, you know, families that couldn't normally rent, afford to rent a full house there, can avoid an apartment building, still feel like they have their own home and afford to be in that neighborhood. So I'd say 80% of what we're doing is a combination of single family home and duplexes, and then, as you know, we still are building some of our quads, our four unit buildings in some areas of northeast Florida, like Jacksonville,

Keith Weinhold 26:50

expenses have obviously been on the mind of real estate investors. More so since interest rates doubled to tripled in 2022 you're selling to investors. Investors need the numbers to work. Since they're not in the emotional market, we're in the market where we're looking at numbers, and that biggest expense, of course, is your mortgage principal and interest. So you found a way to deal with high insurance premiums, because on most or all of your properties that you sell to investors, those insurance premiums are excessively low. Talk to us about what you've done with the mortgage rates, for investors

Jim Sheils 27:27

it's such an important point here, Keith, I remember hearing a warren buffett thing years ago saying, Well, I'm not really in the real estate and that, but for me, when I look at it, a house is worth what it can rent for. And that always stuck with me being Warren Buffett, even though he's not heavily invested in real estate like we are. But for get his sage advice on that that's always stuck with me. So when you're getting a property, yes, you want to have fair price, but the terms around it that actually produce the cash flow, or what's the condition of the property, where is it? But then the other fundamental numbers, what is your insurance? What are your taxes? And then the final big thing is, if you're leveraging, which I encourage, what's your mortgage? And so as you know, we're probably as obsessed with financing as we are with building right, cuz that's our model. We gotta build right. We gotta finance right. So we're always looking for the most advantageous programs where we can team up with banks. They'll allow us to pay an abnormal amount of points, which means discount points that we will pay, not the buyer, we will pay for our buyers to get the rate the lowest and most advantageous. We don't like short term teaser loans, where your rate's going to adjust in 18 months or two years. We saw a lot of people get in trouble with that, at least I did back in the Oh 708, days. So we want long term financing and low interest that's going to produce a cash flow, even though it's new construction from day one. And so right now, our newest program, as you and I have been talking about very excited, is actually a 40 year loan. It's a 40 year loan. We're paying the rate down. Right now we're at five and a quarter. A few weeks ago is at 4.75 so it does fluctuate back and forth. But here's what's exciting, Keith, you're leveraging into a new construction property that has longevity and durability. The first 10 years. Interest only the next 30 years is a 30 year AM, 30 year fixed at five and a quarter. So when you start to do the numbers and go through it, we're almost doubling cash flow on our single family homes and duplexes for people in areas like Ocala, and that makes such a difference to getting them off on the right foot.

Keith Weinhold 29:32

This is a key distinction. Rather than focusing on slashing the price and your properties are already affordable, you buy down that rate by purchasing discount points to buy down that mortgage rate for the investor at the terms that you just described. Builders often like this more. They don't want to cut their prices, because that can become a comparable and lead to a downgrade in values. And investors actually like it more as well, because rather than discounting the price. A little more. It helps the investor more. When you buy down that rate and you do it for them, they are not the ones participating in the rate. Buy down you, the investor. You're paying the closing costs like origination fee and title insurance and things like that. Okay with those 40 year loan terms like you laid out fixed interest only for the first 10 years, and then after 10 years, it transfers to a 30 year fixed, amortizing loan, still with that same rate locked in. Is that right?

Jim Sheils 30:29

That's correct. So there's no sometimes people think, oh, then it's going to trigger upwards several percent. It stays the same the whole 40 year term. We just go from interest only to principal and interest and again, you know, because you talk about the leverage all the time, the most important time to really solidify the strength of an investment and get cash flow going. The most pivotal time is in those first few years. Yeah, we feel we're really giving people that strong foundation to get a cash flowing right off the bat and be able to look long term. The great thing about new construction is people say, Could you hold it that long? I said, I'm planning to with some of my new constructions. Hopefully I'll be a little old man or my children will own them. But you can look out that far and know that you're jumping your cash flow in those initial years when a lot of people may be falling backwards. In fact, when we talked about those emotional markets where people bought higher end properties because they looked good and they felt good to walk through, and then all of a sudden they're bleeding month in, month out for a year, two years, three years. That's when they're ready to wave the white flag. We find with our model, with getting that rate really low, we're accentuating the cash flow forward those first few years, Keith, so they're ready to keep going after a few years, instead of raise the white flag.

Keith Weinhold 31:41

Yeah, when we think about how you're helping investors here while moving product at the same time, the number of problems that are solved are remarkable because you're solving the higher mortgage rate problem by buying down the rates. You've got a low rate, you've got a low insurance premium, you as the investor are almost certainly going to have low maintenance and repair costs since it's new build. And what else do you do when it's new build? The tenant, when they move in, they're the first person that's ever lived in that property, which probably means they're going to have a longer tenancy duration, because it's hard to move up and move into something better than the product you're offering, especially with low affordability for first time homebuyers. In fact, tell us about your average tenancy duration

Jim Sheils 32:21

yeah. So as you know, Keith, I did a ton of fixer uppers. First 15 years of my career, I wore that rehab badge on my shoulder with pride. I loved rehab and old houses. And look, that's great. That's a great way to get going. But I transitioned into new construction a decade ago, and so we've been able to do a lot of comparisons. And you know, back in the day, when I was fixing up lots of properties and renting them out, the older properties, my average tenant would stay about 13 months. It was a little over a year, get them for a year, and then there was move. But that was the average 13 months. Looking back now, and we've been doing this almost a decade. When you look at our new construction model, that went from an average of about 13 months to just over three years with our new construction product. So as you know, if all of a sudden we're pushing back that first move out from a year or 13 months to over three years, that's a tremendous way again to get the right footing and directional on your investment. So that was a really pleasant surprise. I did not expect going to new construction, but jumping from a year to three years has been a nice surprise.

Keith Weinhold 33:24

This brings to mind for you as a passive investor, it's sort of analogous to buying an existing business or starting a new one from scratch yourself, whether it's a rental car company or a tomato farm. You know, a lot of people wouldn't think about getting into business, they think about buying their own business, starting it from scratch, and that's really difficult to do when you're an investor. This way, you're not doing a fix and flip yourself, which is analogous to starting your own business from scratch. You get to buy someone's existing business. You're buying an existing property, a new build one, in this case, and that way you can look at all the financials already and have it be done for you in that all done for you sort of way, just like it is here. Well, Jim, do you have any last thoughts about the Florida real estate market today, especially with the lucrative product type that you're offering to investors?

Jim Sheils 34:16

I would just remind people do your homework, because there's apples and there's oranges, and you gotta compare the two, and you have to do the homework on which segment of the market is healthy and which one is not. I wouldn't recommend you invest in the unhealthy segment of the market, but look where the fundamentals are working. And go back to that term, a house is worth what it can rent for. And if you can look at that, and also couple with stability of new construction, this is where we've seen ourselves make the most money most success with the least amount of time for our investors. So I highly encourage that recipe for anyone out there.

Keith Weinhold 34:53

In addition to being a builder, Jim's company also holds properties under management. For investors, just like you, they offer that for you. For the long term, they have over 1000 current investors, many of them are GRE listeners. You can learn more about the provider at GRE marketplace under Florida statewide, but to get a free strategy session about the latest in what they have for available inventory, and also to compare this provider to other providers, the highest flex, the highest ROI move that you can make yourself as the listener for your due diligence is to connect with a GRE investment coach. It's free at GRE investment coach.com, oh, it's been valuable. Jim, thanks for coming onto the show.

Jim Sheils 35:38

Thanks for having me. Keith.

Keith Weinhold 35:46

Oh, yeah, hearing it straight from a builder today. And you know, a lot of builders create these nice looking, emotional Type homes, the same ones that appeal to owner occupants. They build those higher end homes because they create more builder profit. Well, that's the segment that has become overbuilt today, this build to rent provider we're talking about here is dealing with a public that reads these articles about the Florida slowdown, though things are still good in this workforce housing market. Well, because the public reads headlines, this builder still has to step in with incentives. So really, this is a case study on what a home builder needs to do to adjust to public perception more so than the reality. That's why Jim and his company keep building when others are they keep building because they keep selling to savvy investors, including you, the GRE listener, conversely, the overbuilt emotional market segment, that's where Florida single family home prices are often about 500k or more, and many of them have stopped building. It's that here, with this workforce housing, brand new, single family rentals sell for the high 200k to 300k range in the three hundreds and duplexes in the four hundreds. We've been working with this provider for nearly a decade, and I've asked them, what can you do for GRE listeners? And these are the best incentives yet, is they basically are making discounts in your favor to deal with this public perception. And they are an interest rate buy down that they make for you, like we mentioned, currently to five and one quarter percent. They're also giving GRE listeners two years of free property management, a rental Protection Program, a six month eviction guarantee and a 210 builder warranty. When you see a builder warranty expressed that way, that means they cover two years on the small stuff, 10 years on the big stuff. The latest pro forma that I saw for their single family rentals had a purchase price of 325k and a cash on cash return of nearly 7% when you include all those generous incentives. So if you're looking for a new market to expand into the time and place could very well be here and now, some people wait for blue sky and everything to be perfect before they act well, that never happens. This is about as close as you'll get today. You'll either keep what you've got or change what you're doing here, Jerry, we constantly shop the nation for you. Our coaches help show you where those deals are that they found. And this is a potential opportunity. Here you can get on the calendar of one of our investment coaches for free. And if you like, start by asking about Florida new build property with all the incentives that you heard about here on GRE podcast, 564 at GRE investment coach.com until next week. I'm your host. Keith Weinhold, don't quit your Daydream.

Speaker 4 39:09

Keith Weinhold 39:32

You know, whenever you want the best written real estate and finance info, oh, geez, today's experience limits your free articles access, and it's got paywalls and pop ups and push notifications and cookies disclaimers, it's not so great. So then it's vital to place nice, clean, free content into your hands that adds no hype value to your life. That's why this is. The Golden Age of quality newsletters, and I write every word of ours myself. It's got a dash of humor, and it's to the point because even the word abbreviation is too long, my letter usually takes less than three minutes to read. And when you start the letter, you also get my one hour fast real estate video, course, it's all completely free. It's called the Don't quit your Daydream. Letter, it wires your mind for wealth, and it couldn't be easier for you to get it right now just text gre to 66866, while it's on your mind, take a moment to do it right now. Text, gre to 66866

Keith Weinhold 40:48

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Direct download: GREepisode564_.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 4:00am EST

Mon, 21 July 2025

Keith highlights the decline in college town real estate due to demographic changes and reduced international student enrollment.

The national housing market is moving towards balance, with 4.6 months of resale supply and 9.8 months of new build supply.

Commercial real expert and fellow podcast host, Hannah Hammond, joins Keith to discuss how the state of the real estate market is facing a $1 trillion debt reset in 2025, potentially causing distress and foreclosures, particularly in the Sun Belt states.

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562: $1M Homes Will Be Normal by 2033, Beach Town Bust, How to Put 10% Down on Income Property

Complete episode transcript:

Automatically Transcribed With Otter.ai

Keith Weinhold 0:01

Welcome to GRE. I'm your host. Keith Weinhold, are college towns doomed. There's a noticeably higher supply of real estate on the market. Today is get rich education. America's number one real estate investing show. Then how much worse will the Apartment Building Loan implosions get today? On get rich education.

Speaker 1 0:27

Since 2014 the powerful get rich education podcast has created more passive income for people than nearly any other show in the world. This show teaches you how to earn strong returns from passive real estate investing in the best markets without losing your time being a flipper or landlord. Show Host Keith Weinhold writes for both Forbes and Rich Dad advisors, and delivers a new show every week since 2014 there's been millions of listener downloads in 188 world nations. He has a list show guests and key top selling personal finance author Robert Kiyosaki, get rich education can be heard on every podcast platform, plus it has its own dedicated Apple and Android listener phone apps build wealth on the go with the get rich education podcast. Sign up now for the get rich education podcast, or visit get rich education.com

Corey Coates 1:12

You're listening to the show that has created more financial freedom than nearly any show in the world. This is get rich education.

Keith Weinhold 1:28

Welcome to GRE from Orchard Park, New York to port orchard, Washington and across 188 nations worldwide. I'm Keith Weinhold, and you're listening to get rich education. How most people set up their life is that they have a job or an income producing activity, and they put that first, then they try to build whatever life they have left around that job. Instead, you are in control of your life when you first ask yourself, what kind of lifestyle Am I trying to build? And then you determine your job based on that. That is lifestyle design, and that is financial freedom, most people, including me, at one time. And probably you get that wrong and put the job first. And then we need to reverse it once you realize that, you discover that you found yourself so far out of position that you try to find your way back by putting your own freedom, autonomy and free agency first. There you are lying on the ground, supine, feeling overwhelmed, asking yourself why you didn't put yourself first. Then what I'm helping you do here is get up and change that by moving your active income over to relatively passive income, and doing it through the most generationally proven vehicle of them all, real estate investing for income. We are not talking about a strategy that didn't exist three years ago and won't exist three years from now. It is proven over time, and there's nothing avant garde or esoteric here, and you can find yourself in a financially free position within five years of starting to gradually shift that active income over to passive income.

Keith Weinhold 3:29

Now, when it comes to today's era of long term real estate investing, we are in the midst of a real estate market that I would describe as slow and flat. Both home price appreciation and rent growth are slow. Overall real estate sales volume is still suppressed. It that sales volume had its recent peak of six and a half million homes moved in 2021 which was a wild market, it was too brisk and annual sales volume is down to just 4 million. Today, more inventory is accumulating, which is both a good news and a bad news story. I'm going to get to this state of the overall market shortly. First, let's discuss real estate market niches, a particular niche, because two weeks ago, I discussed the short term rental arms race. Last week, beach towns and this week, in the third of three installments of real estate market niches are college towns doomed? Does it still make sense to invest in college town real estate? Perhaps a year ago on the show, you'll remember that I informed you that a college closes every single week in the United States. Gosh, universities face an increasingly tough demographic backdrop ahead. We know more and more people get a free education. Education online. Up until now, universities have tapped a growing high school age population in this seemingly bottomless well of international students wanting to study in the US. But America's largest ever birth cohort, which was 4.3 million in 2007 is now waning. Yeah, that's how many Americans were born in 2007 and that was the all time record birth year. Well, all those people turn 18 years old this year. This, therefore, is an unavoidable decline in the pool of potential incoming college freshmen from the United States. And on top of that, the real potential of fewer international students coming to the US to study adds to the concern for colleges. This is due to the effects and the wishes of the Trump administration. It already feels like a depression in some college towns now among metro areas that are especially reliant on higher education, three quarters of them suffered weaker economic growth over the past 12 years than the US has as a whole. That's according to a study at Brookings Metro. They're a non profit think tank in DC, all right, and in the prior decade, all right, previous to that, most of those same metros grew faster than the nation did. If this was really interesting, a recent Wall Street Journal article focused on Western Illinois University in McComb Illinois as being symbolic of this trend, where an empty dorm that once held 800 students has now been converted to a police training ground, it's totally different, where there are active shooter drills and all this overturned furniture rubber tipped bullets and paintball casings, you've got to repurpose some of these old dorms. Nearby dorms have been flattened and they're now weedy fields. Two more dorms are set to close this summer. Frat houses and homes once filled with student renters are now empty lots city streets used to be so crowded during the semester that cars moved at a crawl. That's not happening anymore. It's almost like you're watching the town die, said a resident who was born in Macomb and worked 28 years for the Western Illinois Campus Police Department. Macomb, Illinois is at the heart of a new rust belt across the US colleges are faltering, and so are the once booming towns and economies around them. Enrollment is down at a lot of the nation's public colleges and universities starting next year due to demographics like I mentioned, there will be fewer high school graduates for the foreseeable future, and the fallout extends to downtown McComb. It's punishing local businesses. There's this multiplier effect that's diminishing. It's not multiplying for generations. Colleges around the US fueled local economies, created jobs and brought in students and their visiting families to shop and spend and growing student enrollment fattened school budgets, and that used to free universities from having to worry about inefficiencies or cutting costs. But the student boom has ended, and college towns are suffering. And what are some of the other reasons for these doomed college towns? Well, first, a lot of Americans stopped having babies after the global financial crisis, you've got a strong dollar and an anti foreigner administration that's likely to push international student numbers down on top of this, and then, thirdly, US students are more skeptical of incurring these large amounts of debt for college and then, universities have been increasing administrative costs and tuition above the rate of inflation, and they've been doing that for decades. Tuition and operating costs are detached from reality, and in some places, student housing is still being built like the gravy train is not going to end. I don't see how this ends well for many of these universities or for student housing, so you've really got to think deeply about investing in college town housing anymore. Where I went to college, in Pennsylvania, that university is still open, but their enrollment numbers are down, and they've already closed and consolidated a number of their outlying branch campuses. Now it's important notice that I'm focused on college towns, okay, I'm talking about generally, these small. Smaller, outlying places that are highly dependent on colleges for their vibrancy. By the way, Pennsylvania has a ton of them, all these little colleges, where it seems like every highway exit has the name of some university on it. That is starting to change now.

Keith Weinhold 10:21

Conversely, take a big city like Philadelphia that has a ton of colleges, Temple University, Penn, which is the Ivy League school, St Joseph's, Drexel LaSalle, Bryn Mawr, Thomas Jefferson, Villanova. All these colleges are in the Philly Metro, and some of them are pretty big. Well, you can be better off investing in a Philly because Philly is huge, 6 million people in the metro, and there's plenty of other activity there that can absorb any decline in college enrollment. So understand it's the smaller college town that's in big trouble. And I do like to answer the question directly, are college towns doomed? Yes, some are. And perhaps a better overall answer than saying that college towns are doomed, is college towns have peaked. They've hit their peak and are going down.

Keith Weinhold 11:23

Let's talk about the direction of the overall housing market now, including some lessons where, even if you're listening 10 years from now, you're going to gain some key learning. So we look at the national housing market. There is finally some buyer selection again, resale housing supply is growing. I'm talking overall now, not about the college towns. Back in 2022, nearly every major metro could be considered not just a seller's market, but a strong seller's market. And it was too much. It was wild. Three years ago, buyers had to, oftentimes offer more than the asking price, pay all cash. Buyers had to waive contingencies, forgo inspections, and they had to compete with dozens of bidders. I mean, even if you got a home inspection, you pray that the home inspector didn't find anything worse than like charming vintage wiring, because you might have been afraid to ask for some repairs of the seller, and that's because the market was so hot and competitive that you might lose the deal. Fast forward to today, and fewer markets Hold that strong seller's market status. More metros have adequate inventory. And if you're one of our newsletter subscribers, you saw that last week, I sent you a great set of maps that show this. As you probably know, six months of housing supply is deemed as the balance point between buyers and sellers over six months favors buyers under six favors sellers. All right, so let's see where we are now. And by the way, months of housing supply, that phrase is also known as the absorption rate nationally, 4.6 months of resale supply exists. That's the current level, 4.6 months per the NAR now it bottomed out at a frighteningly low one and a half months of supply back in 2022 and it peaked at 12 full months of supply during the global financial crisis, back in 2010 All right, so these are the amounts of resale housing supply available for sale, and we overbuilt homes back in the global financial crisis, everyday people owned multiple homes 15 years ago because virtually anyone could qualify for a loan with those irresponsible lending standards that existed back in that era. I mean, back then, buyers defaulted on payments and walked away from homes and because they had zero down payment in the home. Well, they had zero skin in the game to protect and again, that peaked at 12 months of supply. Now today, Texas and Florida have temporarily overbuilt pockets that are higher than this 4.6 month national number and of course, we have a lot of markets in the Northeast and Midwest that have less than this supply. But note that 4.6 months is still under six months of supply, still favoring sellers just a little, but today's 4.6 months. I mean, that's getting pretty close to historic norms, close to balance. All right, so where is the best buyer opportunity today? Well, understand that. So far, have you picked up on. This we've looked at existing housing supply levels here, also known as resale homes. The opportunity is in new build homes. What's the supply of new construction homes in the US? And understand for perspective that right now, new build homes comprise about 1/3 of the available housing supply. And this might surprise you, we are now up to 9.8 months of new build housing supply, and that's a number that's risen for two years. That's per the Census Bureau and HUD. A lot of builders, therefore, are getting desperate right now, builders have got to sell. The reason that they're willing to cut you a deal is that, see, builders are paying interest costs and maintenance costs every single day on these nice, brand new homes that are just languishing, just sitting there. Understand something builders don't get the benefit of using a home. Unlike the seller family of a resale or existing home, see that family that has a resale home on the market, they get the benefit of living in it while it's on the market. This 9.8 months of new build supply is why buyers are willing to cut you a deal right now, including builders that we work with here at GRE marketplace.

Keith Weinhold 16:30

And we're going to talk to a builder on the show next week and get them to tell us how desperate they are. In fact, it's a Florida builder, and we'll learn about the incentives that they're willing to cut you they're building in one of these oversupplied pockets. So bottom line is that overall, an increasing US housing supply should keep home prices moderating. They're currently up just one to 2% nationally, and more supply means better options for you. Hey, let's talk about this very show that you're listening to, the get rich education podcast. What do you like to do while you're listening to the show? In fact, what are you doing right now while you're listening to the show? Well, in a recent Instagram poll, we asked our audience that very question you told us while listening to the show, 50% of you are commuting, 20% are exercising, 20% are at work, and 10% are doing home chores like cleaning or dishes. Now is this show the number one real estate investing podcast in the United States, we asked chatgpt that very question, and here's how they answered. They said, Excellent question. Real estate investing podcasts have exploded over the past 10 to 12 years, but only a handful have true long term staying power. Here's a list of some of the longest running, consistently active real estate investing podcasts that have built serious legacies. And you know something, we are not number one based on those criteria. This show is ranked number two in the nation. Number one are our friends at the real estate guys radio show hosted by Robert Helms. How many times have I recommended that you go ahead and give them a listen? Of course, I'm just freshly coming off spending nine days with them as one of the faculty members on their summit at sea. Their show started in 1997Yes, on actual radio, before podcasts even existed, and chat GPT goes on to say that they're one of the OGS in the space. It focuses on market cycles, investing strategies and wealth building principles known for its international investor perspective and high profile guests like Robert Kiyosaki. All right, that's what it says about that show. And then rank number two is get rich. Education with me started in 2014 and it goes on to say that this is what the show's about. It says it's real estate centric with a macroeconomic and financial freedom philosophy. It focuses on buy and hold investing, inflation, debt strategy and wealth building. Yeah, that's what it says. And I'd say that's about right? And this next thing is interesting. It describes the host of the show, me as communicating with you in a way that's clear, calm and slightly academic. That's what it says. And yeah, you've got to be clear. Today. There's so much competing for your attention that if I'm not clear with you, then I'm not able to help you calm. Okay? I guess I remain calm. And then finally, slightly academic. I. Hadn't thought about that before. Do you think that I'm slightly academic in my delivery? I guess that's possible. It's appropriate for a show with the word education in our name. I guess it makes sense that I'd be slightly academic. So that fits. I wouldn't want to be heavily academic or just academic, because that could get unrelatable. So there's your answer. The number two show in the nation for real estate investing.

Keith Weinhold 20:29

How are things going with your rental properties? Anyway, I had something interesting happen to me here these past few months. Now I have a property manager in one market that manages quite a few of my properties, all these single family homes and I had five perfect months consecutively as a real estate investor. A perfect month means when you have 100% occupancy, 100% rent collection, and zero maintenance or repair costs. Well, this condition went on for five months with every property that they managed. For me, which is great, profitable news, but that's so unusual to have a streak like that, it kind of makes you wonder if something's going wrong. But the streak just ended. Finally, there was a $400 expense on one of these single family homes. Well, this morning, the manager emailed me about something else. One of my tenants leases expires at the end of next month. I mean, that's typical. This is happening all the time with some property, but they suggested raising the rent from $1,700 up to 1725, and I rarely object to what the property manager suggests. I mean, after all, they are the expert in that local market. That's only about a one and a half percent rent increase, kind of slow there. But again, we're in this era where neither home price growth nor rent growth have been exceptional.

Keith Weinhold 22:02

I am in upstate Pennsylvania today. This is where I'm from. I'm here for my high school class reunion. And, you know, it's funny, the most interesting people to talk to are usually the people that have moved away from this tiny town in Appalachia, counter sport, Pennsylvania, it's not the classmates that stayed and stuck around there in general are less interesting. And yes, this means I am sleeping in my parents home all week. I know I've shared with you before that Curt and Penny Weinhold have lived in the same home and have had the same phone number since 1974 and I sleep in the same bedroom that I've slept in since I was an infant every time that I visit them. Kind of heartwarming. In a few days, I'm going to do a tour of America's first and oldest pretzel bakery in Lititz, Pennsylvania with my aunts and uncles to review what you've learned so far today, put your life first and then build your income producing activity around that. Many college towns are demographically doomed, and even more, have peaked and are on their way down. Overall American residential real estate supply is up. We're now closer to a balanced market than a seller's market. We've discussed the distress in the five plus unit apartment building space owners and syndicators started having their deals blow up, beginning in 2022 when interest rates spiked on those short term and balloon loans that are synonymous with apartment buildings. When we talked to Ken McElroy about it a few weeks ago on the show, he said that the pain still is not over for apartment building owners.

Keith Weinhold 23:51

coming up next, we'll talk about it from a different side, as I'll interview a commercial real estate lender and get her insights. I'll ask her just how bad it will get. And this guest is rather interesting. She's just 29 years old, really bright and articulate, and she founded her own commercial real estate lending firm. She and I recorded this on a cruise ship while we're on the real estate guys Investor Summit at sea a few weeks ago. So you will hear some background noise, you'll get to meet her next I'm Keith Weinhold. There will only ever be one. Get rich education podcast episode 563 and you're listening to it.

Keith Weinhold 24:31

The same place where I get my own mortgage loans is where you can get yours. Ridge lending group and MLS 42056, they provided our listeners with more loans than anyone because they specialize in income properties, they help you build a long term plan for growing your real estate empire with leverage. Start your prequel and even chat with President Caeli Ridge personally, while it's on your mind, start at Ridge lendinggroup.com that. Ridge lendinggroup.com, you know what's crazy?

Keith Weinhold 25:03

Your bank is getting rich off of you. The average savings account pays less than 1% it's like laughable. Meanwhile, if your money isn't making at least 4% you're losing to inflation. That's why I started putting my own money into the FFI liquidity fund. It's super simple. Your cash can pull in up to 8% returns, and it compounds. It's not some high risk gamble like digital or AI stock trading. It's pretty low risk because they've got a 10 plus year track record of paying investors on time in full every time. I mean, I wouldn't be talking about it if I wasn't invested myself. You can invest as little as 25k and you keep earning until you decide you want your money back. No weird lockups or anything like that. So if you're like me and tired of your liquid funds just sitting there doing nothing, check it out. Text family to 66 866, to learn about freedom family investments, liquidity fund, again, text family to 66866

Caeli Ridge 26:13

this is Ridge lending group's president, Caeli Ridge. Listen to get rich education with key blind holes. And remember, don't quit your Daydream.

Keith Weinhold 26:31

Hey, Governor, education nation, Keith Weinhold, here we're on a summit for real estate on a cruise ship, and I'm with Hannah Hammond. She's the founder of HB capital, a commercial real estate lending firm, and the effervescent host of the Hannah Hammond show. Hey, it's great to chat

Hannah Hammond 26:48

you too. It's been so great to get to know you on this ship, and it's been a lot of fun,

Keith Weinhold 26:51

and we just met at this conference for the first time. Hannah just gave a great, well received presentation on the state of the commercial real estate market. And the most interesting thing, and the thing everyone really wants to know since she lends for five plus unit apartment buildings as well, is about the commercial real estate interest rate resets. Apartment Building values have fallen about 30% nationwide, and that is due to these resetting loans. So tell us about that.

Hannah Hammond 27:19

Yeah, so there is a tidal wave of commercial real estate debt coming due in 2025 some of that has already come due, and we've been seeing a lot of the distressed assets start to hit the market in various asset classes, from multifamily, industrial, retail and beyond. And then, as we continue through 2025 more of that title, weight of debt is going to continue to come due, which is estimated to be around $1 trillion of debt.

Keith Weinhold 27:44

That's huge. I mean, that is a true tidal wave. So just to pull back really simply, we're talking about maybe an apartment building owner that almost five years ago might have gotten an interest rate at, say, 4% and in today's higher interest rate environment that's due to reset to a higher rate and kill their cash flow and take them out of business. Tell us about that.

Hannah Hammond 28:03

Yeah. So a lot of investors got caught up a few years ago when rates were really low, and they bought these assets at very low cap rates, which means very high prices, and they projected, maybe over projected, continuous rent growth, like double digit rent growth, which many markets were seeing a few years back, and that rent growth has actually slowed down tremendously. And so much supply hit the market at the same time, because so much construction was developed a few years back. And so now there's a challenge, because rents have actually dropped. There's an overage of supply. Rates have doubled. You know, people were getting apartment complexes and other assets in the two or 3% interest rate range. Now it's closer to the six to 7% interest rate range, which we all know it just doesn't really make numbers work. Every 1% increase in interest you'd have to have about a 10% drop in value for that monthly payment to be the same. So that's why we're seeing a lot of distress in this market right now, which is bad for the people that are caught up on it, but it's good for those who can have the capital to re enter the market at a lower basis and be able to weather this storm and ride the wave back up

Keith Weinhold 29:08

income down, expenses up. Not a very profitable formula. Let's talk more about from this point. How bad can it get? We talked about 1 trillion in loans coming due this calendar year tell us about how bad it might be.

Hannah Hammond 29:23

So it's estimated that potentially 25% of that $1 trillion could be in potential distress. And of course, if two $50 billion of commercial real estate hit foreclosure all at the same time, that would be pretty catastrophic, and there would be a massive supply hitting the market, and therefore a massive reduction in property values and prices. And so a lot of lenders have been trying to mitigate the risk of this happening, and all of this distress debt hit the market at one time. And so lenders have been doing loan modifications and loan extensions and the extend and pretend, quote. Has been in play since back in 2025 but a lot of those extensions are coming due. That's why we're feeling a little bit more of a slower bleed in the commercial market. But you know, in the residential market, we're not seeing as much distress, because so many people have those fixed 30 year rates. But in commercial real estate, rates are generally not fixed for that long. They're more they could be floating get or they might only be fixed for five years, and then they've reset. And that's what we're seeing now, is a lot of those assets that were bought within the last five years have those rate caps expiring, and then the rates are jacking it up to six to 7% and the numbers just don't make sense anymore.

Keith Weinhold 30:36

That one to four unit space single family homes up fourplexes has stayed relatively stable. We're talking about that distress and the five plus unit multi family apartment space. So Hannah, when we pull back and we look at the lender risk appetite and the propensity to lend and to want to make loans, of course, that environment changes over time. I know that all of us here at the summit, we learn from you in your presentation that that can vary by region in the loan to value ratio and the other terms that they're talking about giving. So tell us about some of the regional variation. Where do people want to lend and where do people want to avoid making loans

Hannah Hammond 31:11

Exactly? And we were talking about this is every single region is so different, and there's even micro markets within certain cities and metropolitan areas, and the growth corridors could have a very different outlook and performance than even in the overexposed metro areas. So lenders really pay attention to where the capital is flowing to. And right now, if you look at u haul reports and cell phone data, capital is flowing mostly to the Sun Belt states, and it's leaving the Rust Belt states. So this is your southeast states, your Texas, Florida, Arizona, and these types of regions where a lot of people are leaving some of the Rust Belt states like San Francisco, Chicago, New York, where those markets are being really dragged down by all this office drag from all the default rates in these office buildings that have continued to accumulate post COVID. So the lender appetite is going to shift Market to Market, and they really pay attention to the asset class and also the region in which that asset class is located. And this can affect the LTV, the amount of money that they're going to lend based on the value of the property, also the interest rate and the DSCR ratios, which is how much above the debt coverage the income has to be for the lender to lend on that asset.

Keith Weinhold 32:26

So we're talking about lenders more willing to make loans in places where the population is moving to Florida, other markets in the Southeast Texas, Arizona. Is that what we're talking about here.

Hannah Hammond 32:37

exactly, and even on the equity side, because we help with equity, like JV equity or CO GP equity, on these development projects or value add projects. And a lot of my equity investors, they're like, Nah, not interested in that state. But if it's in a really good Sunbelt type market, then they have a better appetite to lend in those markets.

Keith Weinhold 32:56

Was there any last thing that we should know about the lending environment? Something that impacts the viewers here, maybe something I didn't think about asking you?

Hannah Hammond 33:04

I mean, credit is tight, but there's tons of opportunity. Deals are still happening. Cre originations are actually up in 2025 and projected to land quite a bit higher in 2025 at about 660, 5 billion in originations, versus 539 billion in 2024 so the good news is, deals are happening, movements are happening, purchases and sales are happening. And we need movement to have this market continue to be strong and take place, even though, unfortunately, some investors are going to be stuck in that default debt and they might lose on these properties, it's going to give an opportunity for a lot of other investors who have been kind of sitting on the sidelines, saving up capital and aligning their capital to be able to take advantage of these great deals. Because honestly, we all know it's been really hard to make deals pencil over the past few years, and now with some of this reset, it's going to be a little bit easier to make them pencil.

Keith Weinhold 33:04

This is great. Loans are leverage, compound leverage, trunks, compound interest, leverage and loans are really key to you making more of yourself. Anna, if someone wants to learn more about following you and what you do, what's the best way for them to do that?

Hannah Hammond 33:42

At Hannah B Hammond on Instagram, my show, the Hannah Hammond show, is also on all platforms, YouTube, Instagram, Spotify, Apple, and if you shoot me a follow and a message on Instagram, I will personally respond to and would love to stay connected and help with any questions you have in the commercial real estate market.

Keith Weinhold 34:27

Hannah's got a great presence, and she's great in person too. Go ahead and be sure to give her a follow. We'll see you next time. Thank you.

Keith Weinhold 34:40

Yeah. Sharp insight from Hannah Hammond, there $1 trillion in commercial real estate debt comes due this year. A quarter of that amount, $250 billion is estimated to be in distress or default. This could keep the values of larger apartment buildings suppressed. Even longer, as far as where today's opportunity is, next week on the show, we'll talk to a home builder in Florida, ground zero for an overbuilt market, and we'll see if we can sense the palpable desperation that they have to move their properties and what kind of deals they're giving buyers. Now until next week, I'm your host, Keith Weinhold, do the right thing before you do things right out there, and don't quit your Daydream.

Speaker 3 35:33

Keith Weinhold 35:56

You know, whenever you want the best written real estate and finance info. Oh, geez, today's experience limits your free articles access and it's got pay walls and pop ups and push notifications and cookies disclaimers. It's not so great. So then it's vital to place nice, clean, free content into your hands that adds no hype value to your life. That's why this is the golden age of quality newsletters. And I write every word of ours myself. It's got a dash of humor, and it's to the point because even the word abbreviation is too long, my letter usually takes less than three minutes to read, and when you start the letter, you'll also get my one hour fast real estate video. Course, it's all completely free. It's called the Don't quit your Daydream letter. It wires your mind for wealth, and it couldn't be easier for you to get it right now. Just text gre 266, 866, while it's on your mind, take a moment to do it right now. Text, gre 266, 866,

Keith Weinhold 37:12

The preceding program was brought to you by your home for wealth, building, getricheducation.com.

Direct download: GREepisode563_.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 4:00am EST

Mon, 14 July 2025

Keith discusses the rising cost of real estate, predicting that million-dollar homes will become common by 2033 due to: supply scarcity, demographic demand, inflation, and regulatory costs. Over half of U.S. states have cities with starter home prices over $1 million.

Hear about the challenges of investing in beach towns, citing rising insurance costs and maintenance expenses

GRE Investment Coach, Naresh, joins the conversation to highlight the BRRRR strategy for income property investment.

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561: The Airbnb Arms Race, Why the Real Estate BRRRR Strategy Wins

Complete episode transcript:

Automatically Transcribed With Otter.ai

Keith Weinhold 0:01

Welcome to GRE. I'm your host. Keith Weinhold, million dollar homes will be normal by 2033 I'll discuss why and exactly where they'll be arriving. Why are more beach towns going bust? What's in the big, beautiful bill for real estate investors? Then how to own income property with just 10% equity in it today on get rich education.

Keith Weinhold 0:28

Mid South home buyers, I mean, they're total pros, with over two decades as the nation's highest rated turnkey provider. Their empathetic property managers use your ROI as their North Star. So it's no wonder that smart investors just keep lining up to get their completely renovated income properties like it's the newest iPhone. They're headquartered in Memphis and have globally attractive cash flows and A plus rating with the Better Business Bureau and now over 5000 houses renovated, there's zero markup on maintenance. Let that sink in, and they average a 98.9% occupancy rate, while their average renter stays more than three and a half years. Every home they offer has brand new components, a bumper to bumper, one year warranty, new 30 year roofs. And wait for it, a high quality renter. Remember that part and in an astounding price range, 100 to 180k I've personally toured their office and their properties in person in Memphis, get to know Mid South. Enjoy cash flow from day one. Start yourself right now at mid southhomebuyers.com that's mid south homebuyers.com.

Speaker 1 1:53

You're listening to the show that has created more financial freedom than nearly any show in the world. This is get rich education.

Keith Weinhold 2:10

Welcome to GRE from Palm Bay Florida to Palm Springs, California and across 188 nations worldwide, you are inside one of the longest running and most listened to shows on real estate investing. This is Get Rich Education. I'm your host. Keith Weinhold, I think you know that by now, you can also find my written work in both Forbes and the USA. Today, million dollar homes could be coming to right where you live only as the average home, a typical home. Best said is the million dollar median priced home. They're increasingly common across America. We're going to look at the exact areas where this is going to happen next, and why. Though, real estate prices are only up about 2% annually. This time, a plethora of forces are conspiring to push median American home prices ever higher to a million bucks by 2033 the reasons for ever higher future prices on a national basis are supply scarcity. Though, homes aren't as scarce as they were, say three years ago, incessant demographic demand, continued inflation, tariff pressures, heightened regulatory costs, the rate lock in effect remote work and a perpetual construction labor shortage that makes it easier to find a unicorn than, say, a good plumber out there. All these things are conspiring to push long term prices up, up, up, and sadly, this will make first time home buyer dreams, well only dreams, not a reality for so many Americans. CBS News recently called first time homebuyers an endangered species for this reason. Hmm. Then I wonder if the US Fish and Wildlife Service is now protecting these beleaguered, endangered first time homebuyers. Now the typical Canadian single family home costs 779,500 Canadian dollars today. And get this now, of course, some US regions will have rising prices, and others falling prices in the shorter term, although the general direction is up, but more than half of us, states, 28 out of 50, already have at least one city where the median price for a starter home, just a starter home, is a million dollars or more. This is per realtor.com economist. More than half of states have that condition. Now I want a starter home that's defined as 80% or less of the price of an area's median Well, here we go. It is not just trophy cities anymore that are on the precipice of the million dollar club. It's these moderately priced cities that are next in line, and one trend is that they're located near already expensive markets. For example, Stockton, California is two hours inland from San Francisco, and Stockton is best known for well being two hours from San Francisco. That's about it, all right. Well, here is the 2023 median price. And it's 2033 projection, only eight years away, really, just a little over seven years away. This is where we're going. All right, Boise, from 465k up to $1,163,000 million $163,000 Boston, from 623k to 992k and again, these are 2023 median home prices, and then what they're projected to be in 2033 as these million dollar homes become typical, just in these somewhat moderately priced. US areas, let's continue Colorado Springs. 455k up to $1,020,000 I've made two trips to Colorado Springs in the past two years. I really like it. They're really livable with a nice little airport Denver. 548k up to $1,297,000 Honolulu, 638k up to $1,144,000 Portland, 501k to more than doubling to $1,052,000 Sacramento, 558 up to over $1.1 million Salt Lake City, more than doubling from 493k up to $1,064,000 Seattle, 694k up to $1,486,000 and finally, the aforementioned their Stockton, California, 579k up to $1,447,000 million dollar homes are increasingly abundant into places that are surely Not trophy cities anymore. They're projected to come to all these places by 2033 and this is very realistic, because consider this, what will a million dollars even be worth in 2033 just a little more than seven years away, what will a million dollars even be worth then at 3% inflation, just $789,400 All right. Well, what should you do with this information? It gives you perspective, waiting is not helping get comfy with million dollar homes that are like just kind of all right? And here's the thing, a million dollar home that used to be like posh that used to come with a waterfront view or a celebrity neighbor, and today you just get a popcorn ceiling in a mysterious draft in some entire counties, like I've told you before, in San Mateo County, California, the median home price is already over $2 million just an average home county wide. And I also mentioned to you that there's another California County, Santa Clara, California, where the median price is over $2 million but there are more Nantucket, Massachusetts, Pitkin, Colorado and Teton County, Wyoming, all over $2 million county wide. I mean, in places like this, a million dollar home is a gut job. I mean, it needs a renovation. In these places, a million dollar home costs less than half of the county median. So therefore it is so broken down that you might not even be able to get a conventional loan for that property. And notice that the Sun Belt is not on any of these lists for now, despite its growth, there's still vast land and cheaper housing there the southeast and the Midwest, they still feel like America's affordable housing frontier. But you've got to wonder, for how long and what else does this continued low affordability mean? It's the American. Emerging trend that few people see coming, but we've talked about here, it's that common tidal wave, this horde of new renters that are coming, priced out of million dollar homes. Your renters are coming, and what does this mean for you? Well, consider owning low cost rental property in those low cost parts of the nation. We help you do that here, completely free, at GRE investment coach.com a tidal wave of future renter demand means higher rents and higher occupancy rates. Your renters are coming.

Keith Weinhold 10:39

now, last week, on the show, I discussed the Airbnb arms race, how short term rentals really need a serious glow up and some major investment to compete in a lot of markets anymore. This week, let's discuss the trends in another real estate niche that's largely fallen on some harder times, and that is investing in beach town, something that might be more top of mind for us, as we are here in mid summer. The very best beach town for a bikini slim budget is Pascagoula, Mississippi, a gulf shore escape, where the typical listing will run you a mere 166k can you believe that now this gulf coast town of 22,000 people, it is somewhat of an aberration, though, be careful, Pascagoula is affected by a FEMA rule that really limits the amount of renovation that you can do there? Atlantic City, New Jersey, it's another beach town with a jaw droppingly Low typical list price of 242k yeah. Atlantic City, AC is the name long synonymous with gambling and Trump property port. Ritchie, Florida is another notably cheap beach town with just a 255k typical list price. And it's notable because back in 2019 GRE did a real estate field trip there where I and the property provider and a few speakers, we hosted you, and then we toured properties together in a coach, a tour bus, but those neighborhoods were actually about two miles inland, Myrtle Beach, South Carolina, still just 299k. Corpus Christi, Texas and Ocean City, Maryland, are two more notably cheap beach towns now, especially after talking about the million dollar homes and then you hearing about these cheap beach towns. You might be wondering, gosh, should I buy property for cheap in these beach towns? But, you know, buying the beach house is just the start. Rising. Insurance costs and maintenance costs have forced a lot of investors to question whether beach homes are too big of a gamble now with a few investor profiles here were interviewed first Levi Rogers, a retired Green Beret and a real estate broker in San Antonio, he recently shared how his property on the Gulf Coast went from $3,200 a year for insurance to over $11,000 and that's if you can even get coverage without bizarre exclusions, throw in new flood zone Redeterminations and wild HOA fee hikes due to inflation, and your profits are wiped out in an instant. That's what Levi Rogers says about his particular situation. Honestly, coastal property makes me more nervous than my first Million Dollar Listing. Despite loving beachfront real estate, that's what Los Angeles real estate agent Wesley Kang says he's seen changes that would shock most investors. Insurance costs broke another record at his Marina del Rey listing the owner just got hit with a $68,000 annual premium up from 15k last year, while his neighbor, two blocks inland, pays just 7k so in addition to hurricanes and slow and steady beach erosion, that has caused some homes to simply collapse and fall into the sea. Kang, the Los Angeles real estate agent, said his Malibu client just spent his entire summer rental income on mandatory seawall repairs. Another had to install $100,000 worth of water barriers just to keep his insurance. So is a beach home a good investment? Well, owning it really is not the easy, dreamy investment that it used to be. There are some investors that still think it's worth it, but they need to change their strategy. Roger said that he hasn't sold yet. He just. Had to adapt. That's the San Antonio real estate broker. He cut his rental period down to only the high season months. Raised his rates by 22% just totally ended low season bookings, and he promoted high end upgrades to make the numbers work. He says you have to run it like a hospitality business now, not a passive rental, so the ROI can still be there, but only if you're really on top of it, actively managing risk and costs and the guest experience. Otherwise, what you're doing is that you are just financing someone else's vacation. And this is along the lines of what I was discussing last week with short term rentals in general. Real Estate Investor Daniel Roberts, based in Idaho, he says beach properties are now riskier. He has reinvented his approach to stay solvent. He says we improved our rental by presenting the property as a luxury destination, adding concierge services with dining and boat tours and even fitness sessions. With this rental arrangement, we earned 18% more on rental income last year compared to the previous year, is what he says. However, still, our profits have decreased a little since we now pay so much more each month for insurance and for maintenance, if you're shopping for a beach house and hoping for a deal, it might pay to search a bit inland for cheaper properties and insurance rates, and then it's not really a beach house anymore. Elevation is your friend. Certain oceanfront areas are experiencing a steep drop in some places like Florida. I mean, can you buy the dip if you're looking for opportunities in investor areas like Florida, which saw a huge run up of people heading there during the pandemic, but their jobs require them to return to the office. If you're in the market for a vacation property that you can rent out and possibly use as a second home. There are beginning to be more and more choices. So the bottom line here is that many beach towns are in a bust. Their profitability is under attack, chiefly from these insurance premiums that have as much as 3x or more for many in the past three or four years, Hoa costs are up due to inflation, and then there's just simply the threat of more storms and more beach erosion, and just the stress and concern that causes even outside of the insurance cost, short term rentals tend to be right on the coast or A short walk from the beach. The best long term rentals tend to be inland, inland. Long term rentals are long where we have focused here on this show, and they tend to be stable and steady and frankly, kind of boring, but somehow boring in an interesting way, if that's possible, they plod along paying you five ways.

Keith Weinhold 18:05

Hey, is get rich education the number one real estate investing podcast in America. Are we number one? I've got an answer for you on an upcoming episode. It looks like the big, beautiful bill that was signed into law on the Fourth of July will be advantageous for real estate investors. It extends a lot of Trump's 2017, tax cuts and Jobs Act. There are modifications to opportunity zones in the big, beautiful bill. But the big story is that 100% bonus depreciation has been restored, reset, huge that applies to qualified property placed in service from January 20, 2025 through the end of 2029 now is the Time to accelerate acquisitions and renovations to leverage 100% bonus depreciation. I mean, this is great for investors. And what this does is it allows you to fully deduct the cost of qualifying renovations, property improvements and certain building components immediately, instead of you, having to spread the deductions out over several years. Major however, the big, beautiful bill does not do much of anything to help those beleaguered first time homebuyers that endangered species. In fact, in a previous version of the bill, it was going to open up millions of acres of public lands for new development. Now, if that happened, that could have added more housing supply and therefore kept home prices from perpetually rising, and therefore maybe helped first time home buyers. But that provision was removed from the bill before it got passed. All right, so those public. Lands will not be developed. That was not part of this bill, and that's a quick overview of what Trump's big, beautiful Bill means to real estate investors. To review what you've learned so far. Today, million dollar homes are coming to more places, and that's due to supply scarcity, demographic demand, incessant inflation, tariff pressures, heightened regulatory costs, the rate lock in effect, remote work and a perpetual construction labor shortage. More beach town properties are going bust due to surging property insurance costs and the big beautiful Bill has some serious positives for real estate investors, but not for first time home buyers.

Keith Weinhold 20:45

There is a lot happening here at GRE we, including me and our investment coaches here, are talking with you, our investors. We're talking with the nation's top property providers, as we always do, and there's just a lot of real estate news. How can you follow us to keep up on all this? Well, there are three main ways, and they're all free. There's no subscription cost. That is, firstly, through this show, the get rich education podcast. Secondly, our YouTube channel called get rich education. Yes, we are consistently branded. And the third main way to follow us is with our Don't quit your Daydream newsletter. Sign Up Free by texting GRE to 66 866, that's text GRE to 6668 66 and there you go. They're in they are the three main ways to follow us, podcast, YouTube channel and newsletter, and then also our social media channels, get rich education can be found at all the usual places, Facebook, Instagram, Tiktok and x, but our handle is Get Rich ed on x because there is a character count limit there. That's how to follow us. You can find our recommended property providers at GRE marketplace when you're getting actionable, and then to engage with us for a free strategy session to learn your goals and really put you on a financially free trajectory. You can do that with our investment coaches directly book time on their calendar at GRE investment coach.com

Keith Weinhold 22:25

what is happening with the future of the Fed and interest rates, and how can you put as little as 15% even 10% down on an income property? That's next. I'm Keith Weinhold. You're listening to get rich education

Keith Weinhold 22:39

the same place where I get my own mortgage loans is where you can get yours. Ridge lending group and MLS, 42056, they provided our listeners with more loans than anyone because they specialize in income properties. They help you build a long term plan for growing your real estate empire with leverage. Start your pre qual and even chat with President Caeli Ridge personally, while it's on your mind, start at Ridge lendinggroup.com. That's Ridge lendinggroup.com.

Keith Weinhold 23:11

Naresh Vissa 24:21

you this is peak prosperity. Chris Martenson, listen to get rich education with Keith Weinhold, and don't quit your Daydream.

Keith Weinhold 24:42

It's terrific to have a familiar voice back on the show. It's an in house discussion with our own GRE investment coach since 2021 he's met with you, usually over zoom or the phone completely free to learn your own personal goals. Find the market that's right for you. Two. And he even goes as far as helping connect you with the exact property address that would make your next real estate pays five ways property, like say, you find 654, Maple Street in Little Rock, Arkansas or Indianapolis, Indiana. For you, he helps you through it all. And then he even helps you if you have any trouble after owning the income property. He's got the formal education with his MBA, and he walks the talk because he's a direct real estate investor, just like I am. Hey, welcome back to the show investment coach Naresh Vissa.

Naresh Vissa 25:32

thanks for having me back on. It's always a pleasure to talk to you and the loyal GRE listenership that we have. I think

Keith Weinhold 25:40

we enjoy talking to each other more than President Donald Trump and Fed Chair Jerome Powell do for sure. And I think if anyone's been paying any attention, there's been quite a feud between Trump and Powell, and it's been pretty entertaining. Trump has referred to Powell as Mr. Too late, like too late to make a decision. He has called Powell a numbskull. He has said Powell has a low IQ for what he does. That drama has been really interesting now. Powell's term ends in May of next year, so about 10 months from now. And I think most anyone knows that Trump wants an interest rate cut badly, but Powell keeps holding tight, and what Trump says is that he wants to lower the interest costs on our national debt. That's the reason that Trump gives for lowering the rates. But Powell's been reluctant to lower rates because it might stoke inflation. In reality, I suspect that Trump wants lower rates just to juice economic growth, like that's the real reason, and then Trump sort of hopes that inflation only catches up with the next president who comes in in 2029 and interestingly, back on July 1, Jerome Powell said, if it weren't for tariffs, he would have already lowered rates. What are your thoughts?

Naresh Vissa 26:55

Well this is a lot more complicated than it seems, and here's why Trump called Powell a lot of names, and I think some of those names hold true if we go back to when Biden was president, because it was in April, May 2021, that I was saying, hey, it's time to start increasing the interest rates, because inflation was going up significantly, very quickly, it was going up. And if you recall, Keith, I know you did many episodes on this, Powell kept saying, Oh, this is transitory. It's just transitory. And my whole justification was, well, look, a 25 basis point hike ain't gonna kill anybody. And they refused to do it for an entire year. Once we started seeing inflation going up. And by that point, inflation went up close to 10% that's how bad it got. That's it didn't hit the double digits, but it was very close to hitting the double digits. So yes, I do think Powell was a numbskull for not raising the rates back in 2021 but today I'm actually on Powell's side, because there are still inflationary pressures. And remember, Keith, the inflation target is 2% it's not two and a half percent. They haven't moved the goalposts. It's still 2% and last month, this is the media is not talking about this, except for get rich education today, inflation went up last month. So yes, it beat expectations, but it still went up. The expectations were that the terrorists were going to create this massive inflation and we would be back up at the three handle. And it didn't do that. But regardless, inflation still went up. So let's wait. Let's see what the CPI numbers show. I don't think we're going to be close. I don't think we're going to be under that 2% figure within the next two months, and that's why I think Powell is justified in holding to rate study. Now, with that being said, I do think because of Doge, we did an episode earlier this year on Doge, because of Doge, because of the latest ADP job numbers, the latest unemployment numbers, the private sector cuts that are happening at Microsoft and Google and a lot of other big name companies. I do think that inflation will eventually dip below 2% you look at the gas prices have hit four year lows. Look at egg prices have hit, I think four year lows or three year lows. I do think we'll dip below the 2% at some point. The question is, is, when is it going to be? You know, three months from now? Is it going to be a year from now? It all depends. So what does that mean for your question of, is Powell right? Is he wrong? Is he a numbskull? Who's right? I completely understand what you said is why Trump wants the rates cut, and that is, he wants to juice everything because he looks great, and it's a midterm election year, next year, and he doesn't want to lose his Congress. And I understand the political side of it, but the number one issue, the number one issue, according to almost every poll out there before. Election, the number one issue on voters minds was inflation. It's had things. The bleeding has not stopped, and the inflation is out of control. The groceries are too expensive. That's what's important. And I'm on Powell's side here. I think you have to be patient. On the other hand, Trump is being very aggressive, and he's looking to replace Powell, and he's going to put in his guy in there. I mean, the basic requirement for the job is you're going to get in there and slash entry. You're not even going to do a 25 basis point cut. You're going to go down to 1% fed upon rates overnight. That's what Trump wants. I don't know if you saw that, but Trump wants a 1% Fed funds rate pretty much overnight, because he's saying, oh, is going to save us all this money on the debt that we're paying, interest payments and data I get where both of these guys are coming from. I think the ideal scenario, because Powell, it looks like he's safe until maybe the end of the year. I think we hit that 2% point, definitely by the end of the year, and Powell will start cutting in September, we'll see a 25 that's what I think. I think we'll see a 25 basis point cut in September, maybe a 50 basis point cut in the next meeting after that, and and maybe even a 75 basis point cut in December. And that way, when the new guy comes in, he doesn't have to do this drastic COVID March, 2020, type of cut, of slashing rates close to zero overnight. We do it in a gradual I think that would be better for the country and for the economy and for the global economy. So that's where I see things. But regardless, regardless, we know for a fact that the interest rates, the cutting is beginning soon, and the rates are going to be very low sometime next year, if not by the end of next year, we know for a fact that the rates are going to be very, very low. And what that means for the housing market is that, and let's talk about the housing market really quickly, the inventory in the housing market is the supply side is very high. This is not 2021 2022 when homes are flying off the shelves and people were paying above asking price for homes. We're in a situation where the inventory has piled up. Home values have somewhat stagnated. If rates are going to bottom next year, then buying real estate. I don't want to say I'm not calling a bottom, but I'm saying that you can expect real estate home values to skyrocket once rates hit that 1% because of the Fed funds rate. So right now, we're seeing demand from investors because they're thinking what I'm saying, hey, the Fed is going to slash. We know that for sure because of Trump. And when that happens, institutions, individuals, they're going to start taking out debt, and the housing market's going to skyrocket just like stocks. I mean, really, most assets are going to skyrocket. So right now, I think, is an excellent, excellent time to be looking at buying real estate, and then you can just refinance later, when the rates bottom in a year or two,

Keith Weinhold 32:50

when you talk about high housing supply, I think what you mean is higher housing supply. Nationally, we're still 12% under supplied. It's just the fact that we have 30% more available housing supply in the one to four unit space than we did a year ago. At this time when we're talking about interest rates and things that have to do with the larger economy, here, you the listener should be aware that Naresh has often been tapped and interviewed by major network television on his opinions on these sort of broader economic issues, so he is qualified that way. And to give you an idea with what we're talking about with this desire to get the Fed funds rate down to 1% whether that happens or not, today's Fed funds rate is around 4.3% just to give you an idea of the magnitude of the potential cut, I don't forecast interest rates because it's very difficult to do, but it's interesting that Naresh has done some of that, and let's remember that Trump is actually the one that appointed Jerome Powell back in Trump's first term, and there's been a good bit of speculation around who the next appointee might be. In fact, if that appointee is named several months before Powell's termination of his term in May. Some people think that could be Treasury Secretary Scott Besant, that that alone could change the dynamic, that you would get someone more likely on board to make rate cuts and name them before they actually come into office.

Naresh Vissa 34:14

Well, the President decides he appoints that position, and we know for a fact 100% Trump is only going to put his person in there, man or woman, we don't know, but he's going to put his person. And the basic requirement for the job, it's not a PhD from Harvard or being a multi billionaire like Scott Besant. The basic requirement for the job is cutting the rates to 1% the Fed funds rate to 1% that's the bare minimum basic requirement for the job, and there are apparently lines of people who are lining up because they think they fit that requirement. So we know that's coming. We know it's coming at the latest, next year, like I said, Because Trump said it himself, and to be calling somebody a numbskull and all these names, he's very serious about this. It's an issue that means a lot to him. And again, I get where Trump's coming from. The government would save a lot of money on interest payments. And Trump's justification is, inflation is low, let's just try it, which I somewhat agree with. He says, Let's just try it, and if the inflation goes back up, then you just raise the rates. Don't you know, Powell was too late in 2021 the next guy won't be too late in raising rates this time around if the inflation does go back up. So it's a different strategy that would definitely juice the economy overnight. Of course, he wants that. Everyone's got their own opinions. I'm of the opinion. I think the Fed actually is for the most part. Post 2022 has done a good job. In fact, I did an episode with you, I think, a year and a half ago, saying that the Fed should have done more rate hikes, because we would have been at 2% inflation a year ago had the Fed done one or two more rate hikes, in my opinion. And we saw at the end of Biden's presidency, inflation started going back up when the Fed actually cut rates, when they should have been raising rates previously. So with that being said, this is a good opportunity for investors, because we are in that doldrum right now where we know the rate cuts are coming, at least we, you and I and GRE listeners know that the rate cuts are coming. Not everybody knows that they're coming, because they may not pay attention or follow this stuff as closely as we do. We know that they're coming, and what that means for the housing market is, like I said, juice. We can see juice in stocks. We can see juice and housing. We can see juice and Bitcoin and other commodities.

Keith Weinhold 36:35

Well, you use the word doldrum. Yes, the housing market is in somewhat of a doldrum. We have lower transaction volume than we have historically, for sure, and really that's led by we need to keep in mind as investors, that that's lower owner, occupant purchase volume, because investor purchases have stayed pretty steady.

Naresh Vissa 36:56

Yes, I'll say this, Keith, we work with a lot of different providers all around the country. I want to say we're up to something like 30 different providers in 20 different markets or so. When these partners are calling me saying, Hey, we got all these properties and send me your people and you know, let's do business together and help us find more investors, then I know that the housing market has somewhat stalled. It's not doing terrible, but I know that it's when those providers aren't calling me, or when they even cut off the relationship and say, Hey, I don't want to talk to you anymore. I don't want to work with you anymore. Then I know, hey, it's a really hot housing market. They don't really need me. And I'll tell you right now, every other day I have a partner of ours, I had to tell them to stop call. I said An email will do, or a text message will do. You don't need to call and leave me a bunch of voicemails. I have people calling me every day saying, Hey, we got all these properties, and they're amazing and they're beautiful, and send your people to us, which tells me that it could be actually a good time to start buying. Because it's not like I said, 2021 it's not 2022 it could be a good time right now, because the investor will hold more leverage, and the incentives that these partners are offering are second to none. I've never seen incentives this good. I mean, it's not just the free property management, it's not just the closing cost credit. It's negotiating prices of homes. It's getting cash back at closing, so just literally having a check overnighted to you that's in the five figures, cash back for buying property. So overall, I think it's a really, really good time right now to get into real estate, probably one of the best times, if not the best time since I joined GRE at the end of 2021

Keith Weinhold 38:40

of course, Ken McElroy was just here on the show with us a couple weeks ago, talking about what a good time it is to buy from his perspective as well. But yeah, Naresh, I appreciate that you're kind of letting the listener peek behind the curtain a little bit. We really get a good read on the pulse of the market here, and part of our job is to vet those providers that we work with, yeah, the race. Well, one property strategy that almost transcends eras is the BRRRR strategy. It's such a popular strategy with investors, because you can get in to a deal and have so little of your money left in the deal that you could end up with 10 to one levered. So the burr strategy, that's probably the most popular strategy with our investors. So tell us more about that.

Naresh Vissa 39:27

We've done several webinars already about Bert, and this has become the most popular strategy with our investors, hands down the amount of volume that we're seeing with our investors, people who keep buying more and more because the first one worked out. Now there are some that didn't work out, and that has more to do with the provider than it has to do with the strategy. The strategy is simply buy a property that needs to be completely rehabbed, refurbished. It's you buy a property, as is, you take out a hard money loan to renovate the property, to gut it, to update. It, bring it up to speed. Or you can pay cash. So a lot of people say, Oh, I don't have the cash to pay for such a property. So they're the hard money loan is there. Or you could pay cash. Our recommendation, my recommendation, personally, is take out the hard money loan, because you have that extra layer of protection, that extra body who will make sure that you're not getting taken advantage of, because that's a problem that we've seen with BRRRR, where some of the providers, some of the sellers, they'll sell the property, and then they just disappear after that. And we don't want that to happen. We want the rehab to actually get done, because the real value is by doing the rehab, making the house nice, renting it out to a tenant, and then refinancing the property, because the home value is going to appreciate so much. In some cases, some of our investors got 100% appreciation from what they bought the property at, and they were able to use that equity, 100% of that equity into the down payment, into other fees, so they didn't have to pay anything out of pocket for the property. So that's the beauty of the BRRRR strategy. And like I said, what's most important? Because we've already done two web it. We've done a Memphis burr webinar, we've done a Cleveland burr webinar. Now we're doing a little rock BRRRR webinar, and I think this is the best burr out of all the burs that we've done. And the reason is because the team we're working with, they have a legitimate company operation. They have a property management division, they have a rehab division, they have a sales division, they have a management division. This is not like a one man show or a two person company trying to do all these rehabs all at once. So they're very here's the schedule. This is what we have to do, very accurate and so yes, their pro forma numbers aren't going to be as aggressive as what our investors have seen with previous BRRRR providers. But the problem with those aggressive numbers is that a lot of the providers, they overinflate those numbers, and they don't follow through, let's say, on the rehab, or they do the rehab, and the appraisal does not come back at an amount that met the proforma. So I'm just really excited about this, because Little Rock is a new market that we've entered into. We have not done a lot of Little Rock promotion, a lot of Little Rock property. So it's a new market, number one and number two, it's the team that's there. This is the best of the best team. And if somebody came to me and said, Hey, I want to do a bur. Where should I do it? You've got all these different webinars and podcasts on burrs. Where should I do it? I would say bur Little Rock is where you want to do it, because you're going to sleep way better at night, and the process is going to be way smoother than the others. Yes, the pro forma numbers, they're not going to be as appealing, or they're not going to be as outlandishly high as those other markets, but those other markets, Memphis, Cleveland, there's a reason why those numbers are so high. And like I said, it's this team in Little Rock, amazing team, Keith, I know you've had some calls with them. We interviewed the their head Alex on last week's podcast episode. He and I are going to be doing this upcoming webinar on BRRRR little rock this Thursday, and we hope to see everybody there go to gre webinars.com, gre webinars.com, right now to register for that webinar.

Keith Weinhold 43:14

It's this Thursday, a live event that you can attend from your own home. And the benefit of you attending live is you can have your questions answered in real time. You can hear other attendees questions, which will help educate you on this process. And yes, I don't know if this will ever happen again. We do have Alex leading the bur strategy in Little Rock. He's been doing this for 15 years. He's got his vetted, proven team and a great system for doing this, so that so much of it is all done for you. And

Naresh Vissa 43:47

one more thing that I'll say, because this has become very popular with our online special event attendees, they hear podcast episodes like this, and they say, Hey, I want to jump on this before the live event, because all those other people are going to be on, and I want to jump. So I want to share, or Keith, I'll let you share our link for people to just reach out to me if you want to schedule a meeting or just email me. Just reach out to me if you don't want to wait until the webinar, the online special event this Thursday, if you want to get a head start, please absolutely reach out to me.

Keith Weinhold 44:20

That's a great thought. You can go to GRE investment coach.com right now and get on the race's calendar so that you can have a free meeting. Any last thoughts about Thursday's big event?

Naresh Vissa 44:32

like I said, it's going to be Thursday evening. The time is going to be at 8pm Eastern Time. Thursday, 8pm eastern the webinar, online special event will last about two hours. Our listeners, our followers, love these online events because they're highly interactive. We get everybody involved. They're fun, and the reason why they last two hours is because the people who attend are having such a good time. Them that they want it to last that long. I remember a long time ago when we used to do these online events, and they'd only last 30 or 40 minutes, and then that was the end. But now our file loves them so much. I think if you've never attended one of our online special events, you'll definitely want to attend this, because it is the timing is perfect before all these rate cuts, as the housing supply inventory is at a 12 month high. So the timing is is really good. The incentives are excellent. And like I said, we know interest rates are going to be slashed sometime next year, so you can always refinance later, but but getting in at these prices is going to be a true gift. So gre webinars.com, to register for this online special event.

Keith Weinhold 45:52

We are all looking forward to it this coming Thursday. Narration, it's been great having you back on the show.

Naresh Vissa 45:57

Thanks, Keith.

Keith Weinhold 45:58

Yeah. Fruitful in house chat, as always, with one of our investment coaches, Naresh, that's how you can leave as little as 10% down on an income property. When you do that, cash out refi with the burr strategy, you'll get in at today's lower prices, they tend to be 140 to 160k in Little Rock, Arkansas. You'll lock in this year's rates with that low price, with the BRRRR acronym, meaning buy, renovate, rent, refinance, repeat. Well, that refi is a little ways down the road after your initial purchase. Longer term, if interest rates go up, you'll be glad that you got today's rates. And if interest rates go down, which many expect, then you'll refi. The only thing bigger than the next Fed interest rate decision or the naming of a new Fed chair is Thursday's GRE live event itself, get ready. Really, the event presentation typically takes an hour or less. The rest of the time is your questions and conversations, so show up from the comfort of your own home, maybe with a beverage this Thursday, and since it's in the evening, probably not a stimulant, maybe a yerba mate, besides seeing real life case studies and understanding how the burst strategy works, how to optimize it and the mistakes to avoid, expect access to available Little Rock burr properties, actionable opportunities. Should you so choose? Sign Up Free at gre webinars.com Until next week, I'm your host. Keith Weinhold, don't quit your Daydream.

Unknown Speaker 47:50

Keith Weinhold 48:14

You know, whenever you want the best written real estate and finance info, oh, geez, today's experience limits your free articles access and it's got pay walls and pop ups and push notifications and cookies disclaimers. It's not so great. So then it's vital to place nice, clean, free content into your hands that adds no hype value to your life. That's why this is the golden age of quality newsletters. And I write every word of ours myself. It's got a dash of humor, and it's to the point because even the word abbreviation is too long, my letter usually takes less than three minutes to read, and when you start the letter, you'll also get my one hour fast real estate video course, it's all completely free. It's called the Don't quit your Daydream letter. It wires your mind for wealth, and it couldn't be easier for you to get it right now. Just text gre 266, 866. While it's on your mind, take a moment to do it right now. Text, gre 266, 866,

Keith Weinhold 49:30

The preceding program was brought to you by your home for wealth, building, getricheducation.com

Direct download: GREepisode562_.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 4:00am EST

Mon, 7 July 2025

Keith discusses the competitive nature of short-term rentals (STRs) and the need for hosts to offer luxury amenities to attract guests.

Long time investing pro, Alex, joins us to cover the BRRRR strategy in Little Rock, Arkansas, an investor-advantaged market, emphasizing its low property taxes and stable cash flow. They explain the BRRRR process, including: buying, renovating, renting, refinancing, and repeating.

The strategy allows investors to scale their portfolios with minimal initial capital, offering a 0% management fee in year one and 4% in year two.

Resources:

Register here for the live online event to learn about ‘Unlocking BRRRR Deals in Little Rock on Thursday, July 17th at 8PM Eastern.

Show Notes:

GetRichEducation.com/561

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560: The Real Estate Market Just Changed Forever, Two GRE Listener-Guests

Complete episode transcript:

Automatically Transcribed With Otter.ai

Keith Weinhold 0:01

Welcome to GRE I'm your host. Keith Weinhold, anymore when you own short term rentals like Airbnbs and vrbos, you are in an all out arms race competing to provide amenities like never before. Then what happens when you take the popular burr real estate strategy and overlay it with one of the most investor advantaged markets in all of America. It's a lucrative opportunity. You'll see how and why today on get rich education.

Keith Weinhold 0:32

Mid south home buyers, I mean, they're total pros, with over two decades as the nation's highest rated turnkey provider, their empathetic property managers use your ROI as their North Star. So it's no wonder that smart investors just keep lining up to get their completely renovated income properties like it's the newest iPhone. They're headquartered in Memphis and have globally attractive cash flows, an A plus rating with the Better Business Bureau, and now over 5000 houses renovated their zero markup on maintenance. Let that sink in, and they average a 98.9% occupancy rate, while their average renter stays more than three and a half years. Every home they offer has brand new components, a bumper to bumper, one year warranty, new 30 year roofs. And wait for it, a high quality renter. Remember that part and in an astounding price range, 100 to 180k I've personally toured their office and their properties in person in Memphis. Get to know mid south enjoy cash flow from day one. Start yourself right now at mid southhomebuyers.com that's mid southhomebuyers.com

Speaker 1 1:58

You're listening to the show that has created more financial freedom than nearly any show in the world. This is get rich education.

Keith Weinhold 2:14

Welcome to GRE from North Conway, New Hampshire to North port, Florida and across 188 nations worldwide. I'm Keith Weinhold, and this is get rich education, happy July, the second half of the year. And my favorite month of the year is your Airbnb fancy enough, because anymore STRS short term rentals have gotten so competitive that hosts treat their properties like white lotus level hotels. Now, STRS were never passive, but they become even less so it is active income. Once upon a time, Airbnb hosts could just sort of drop a few colorful throw pillows on their fold out couch and make a killing. But no more those days are so far gone. The STR game has changed drastically. I mean, you used to be able to list a basic home with generic furniture that you got at Costco, minimal amenities, no Wi Fi, and still get it booked, but today, it will sit empty unless you offer more than just a place to sleep. You have to build an experience for Airbnb guests. Now, increasingly, hosts are doing things like adding outdoor kitchens, arcade machines, putting greens, even basketball. And now, though these upgrades do cost a lot up front, they can pay off. These amenity types can double your nightly rate, but they come with more responsibility and more to maintain. I mean, more guests are expecting a flawless experience. The trend is that Airbnbs are becoming full scale hospitality operations, and if you don't treat it like one, you're going to fall behind. So simply having a nice house that just no longer cuts it, running a short term rental today is nothing like it was even two or three years ago. You used to be able to stand out with a decent bed and colorful throw prolos, but now guests are basically comparing your place to boutique hotels. Hosts are deeply investing in design, forward furniture, layered lighting and featuring spaces that some market as what they call moments like cozy reading corners in these luxurious bathroom setups, adding things like welcome guides and even complete brand identities with a proper. Name and even a logo and a story to give the place some personality, even writing up a history for your property, even if it's not that historic. Now, these sorts of tactics, they actually do, seem to work. Guests will give you more bookings, better reviews, and guests even share the space on social media like it's somewhat of a lifestyle destination now sometimes STR hosts, they team with these other platforms to add welcome champagne in ice buckets on site, sommeliers, private chefs, daily, housekeeping on demand. 24/7 textable concierges, heated plunge pools and other amenities through you partnering with some of these platforms and these upgrades don't come cheap. The publication called the playbook, they featured an STR in Sag Harbor, New York, where the property owner invested $85,000 into overhauling the landscaping and adding a James Turrell Inspired LED light installation. But overall, these improvements boost rental revenue by an average of 40% over what the property was collecting previously. All right, so this is a case study now, though, this STR trend of offering deep hospitality and luxury amenities has turned into more of a job and less about passive income. You know, really, this is free market capitalism, because this is competition to see who can provide the best service at the lowest price, but that's what it is. So this is making real estate less of a good and more of a service. Short term rentals soaring supply, day rate compression and AI driven pricing tools. That means that the just this all nice house with good photos thing that no longer cuts it. It is an amenities arms race now, and of course, this is a national trend. It doesn't mean that it's happening absolutely everywhere. In some places, hosts are able to charm guests simply with something like a freshly baked loaf of banana bread, but the consensus is whether they spend a little or a lot, Airbnb hosts unanimously say that they've got to work harder in order to keep guests happy. It's become more of a business and less of a side hustle than it used to be. You've got more hosts leaning into higher upfront investments because they know guests will pay for a sort of turnkey, Instagrammable experience. And this really is a classic early adopter issue, just like a lot of things, Airbnb launched in 2007 by the way, so this sort of first wave of Airbnb hosts back around 2012 to 2015 they were riding a blue ocean back then. There was virtually no competition. There weren't any standards, and there were plenty of bookings, and that made a lot of hosts pretty fat and happy. But that's not where we are now, really. The bottom line is that in many markets, short term rentals have transitioned from partial passivity to all out hospitality. That's the Airbnb arms race. The average Airbnb nightly rate for North America. Do you care to venture a guess at the average nightly rate? It is approximately $216 per night, and that right there is up 26% from 2020 so it is not up as much as house prices over that five year period from 2020 really, the Airbnb rate is up about as much as the long term rental rate.

Keith Weinhold 8:58

While we're talking numbers a quarter recently ended. Let's hit on our asset class rundown. What's happened to home prices in the past year? Well, when you aggregate all these sources, Zillow, Freddie, Mac case, Shiller, FHFA, in totality, home prices are up 2% single family rents are up 3% apartment rates are down 1% due to their oversupply. The 30 year mortgage rate was 6.9% a year ago, and it's 6.8 now. CPI inflation is 2.4% expressed in year to date terms. Now the SP5 100 is up 5% in the first half of this year, ending near 6200 the dollar is down. That means that it takes more of them to buy gold, which is over $3,300 an ounce, gold is up 27% just from the start of this year, and the oil price is still depressed in the 60s. Per dollar for a barrel, Bitcoin still strong, ending the quarter at 106kthat's your asset class rundown, which we do about quarterly.

Keith Weinhold 9:57

Hey, I really enjoyed meetingside. Of you on this year's terrific real estate guys Investor Summit at sea was concluded about a week ago. It was two days on land in Miami, followed by a week of conferences and fun aboard a Caribbean cruise ship. I really got to meet you and get to know you, because we had nine days together, and as one of the faculty members, I hosted a table at dinner every night, and each night the attendees rotated around to my table, so I got to meet a lot of you and really get to know you, and you got to know me. Yeah, it was as interesting for me to meet you in person, perhaps, as it was for you to meet me, because I like to hear what you're doing in real estate, investing, in everything else. I gave a main stage presentation that was almost an hour of all me, all GRE and also served on five different panel discussions. Oh, it's such a unique event. Get this, I was kind of dressed up to give my main stage presentation, which so many of you, by the way, told me afterwards, that that was your favorite presentation of them all, all week long, because each faculty member made a main stage presentation. But what I want to tell you is, just a few hours after I presented, on the cruise ship, I was shirtless in the water throwing a football around at the beach in St Thomas Virgin Islands. What an event. Fantastic to meet a number of you in person. So far today, I hope what I've shared with you has been informative. Next. It's something informative and really actionable that you can make lucrative that's next. I'm Keith Weinhold. You're listening to get rich education.

Keith Weinhold 11:45

The same place where I get my own mortgage loans is where you can get yours. Ridge lending group and MLS, 42056, they provided our listeners with more loans than anyone because they specialize in income properties. They help you build a long term plan for growing your real estate empire with leverage. Start your pre qual and even chat with President Caeli Ridge personally, while it's on your mind, start at Ridge lendinggroup.com. That's Ridge lendinggroup.com.

Russell Gray 12:16

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Russell Gray 13:30

Hi. This is Russell Gray, co host of real estate guys radio show, and you're listening to get rich education with Keith Weinhold, don't quit your Daydream. You Keith,

Keith Weinhold 13:38

welcome back to get rich Education. I'm your host. Keith Weinhold, we're talking to a guest not only about an investor advantaged market, but when you overlay a certain strategy with it, this can be highly lucrative for investor returns, and we're with a long time investing pro Alex, welcome onto the show.

Alex Craig 14:04

Hi Keith, thank you.

Keith Weinhold 14:05

Well talking about top US cashflowing market, let's get right to it. Tell us about yours.

Alex Craig 14:11

Little Rock, Arkansas. It's a market that we've been in since 2012. I personally invest there. I've got about 75 doors of multi family, single family. And the reason why it works is just cash flow. Over the years, we've had investors from around the country that have owned portfolios where maybe they're somewhere in Phoenix or Dallas, where they're kind of speculating. This is not a speculation market, and that's why it works for myself. It's consistent. It's very linear, and linear is a word that we use a lot to describe. And if you're going to be a cash flow investor, and that's why I'm in it, it's you want a linear market. You don't want ups or downs, and then you want to make sure it's a growing market too. And Little Rock checks all the boxes of what you would want in a stable cash flow environment market.

Keith Weinhold 14:57

And I think a lot of our investor listeners are. Already pretty keen on that. You get a high ratio of rent income to purchase price. You have laws that heavily favor landlords over tenants. But Alex, in today's environment, people are more conscious about rising operating expenses and higher mortgage expenses, and that's really one advantage that Arkansas can give right now, is with those low property taxes

Alex Craig 15:20

Keith,it's so interesting you mentioned that because I did have a conversation with a client of ours that had a property in another market that he had mentioned how his property taxes had gone up and gone up substantially, which that's to expect. I mean, after COVID, there was a lot of markets saw a huge boost, especially with markets that saw hedge funds come in. Hedge Funds, I believe, ruined a lot of markets, raised the prices. And another reason I like Little Rock, it flies under the radar. You think is Little Rock is a small market, but it's really not. It's, I mean, the population of the city is 250,000 but the metro area, which is a 50 mile radius around Little Rock, is much bigger. And the entire, not only the entire market, metro area, feeds off little rock, really, the entire state does too. But that being said, because it's floating under the radar, the property tax have remained low. They've taken a little bit of bump over the years, because the values steadily go up, but they started low anyway. So with operating costs of insurance, insurance has gone up for a lot of for my own properties in other markets, it's going up, and it's going up in Little Rock too. I mean, it's just the name of insurance, but property taxes have remained low. They've always been low, and that's really a big help as to why this market works for us.

Keith Weinhold 16:30

Talking about flying under the radar, you're talking about, therefore evading a lot of that hedge fund money. Tell us more about the market and some of those anchors and drivers.

Alex Craig 16:40

It's a blue collar town. You've got logistics. Is a market, or is a segment of the industry that has really come on strong over the last few years, Amazon has really put a footprint in the market. Healthcare is a huge, huge market, like I mentioned earlier, not only does the region feed off the direct to the entire state, it's the hub of healthcare for the entire state of Arkansas, of course, it's government. Government provides a lot of jobs. The good thing about government jobs is they're maybe not on a national level anymore, but on a local, state level, they're very it's hard to get let go from a government job, unless now, not on a federal level, but it's very steady, so a lot of steady blue collar jobs, and that's what you want for a strong resident base, especially in the type of properties and 1000 to $1,200 price range, you want those blue collar study growing jobs.

Keith Weinhold 17:31

Yes, you do have those there. It's funny. I'm smiling a bit because I used to be a state government employee, and there's just no way that they ever would have fired me. I was so protective I had to quit in order for them to have to replace me at that job. I'm wondering about the new supply that's come on, Alex, because a number of markets have added supply. I know, for example, that Redfin reports that little rock median home price appreciation is up 7.3% year over year, and with the dynamics going on in the market recently, that typically tells us that there hasn't been that much new supply added. Is that what's going on there?

Alex Craig 18:11

No, there hasn't been a lot of new supply. I just think with little rock and every other market, the mortgage rates have gone up. Home ownership is down during COVID. It was really hard to get an investment property. For what we did, sending out our list every week. It was basically send out our properties, people hitting send and not even knowing what they were reserving. Rates were just low, right? Everybody's jumping in. It was hard to get inventory. So now what we have is, you know, higher rates that scares some people off. It pushes some people out on the market, but it also creates opportunity. I feel like this is the easiest time I've been investing in real estate since 2007 that was the foreclosure crisis, Great Recession, and it was a lot of foreclosures on the market, and that's how I built a big chunk of my portfolio. But now it's just a matter of there's not as many people in it. So for us, there's just more acquisitions for us to go out and get. There's still distressed homes on the market where individuals don't want to hire a realtor, they just want all cash offers. They're ready to get rid of them, and that's where we step in. And without as much competition like I said, we kind of fly under the radar. I feel it creates more just supply inventory for us and for me as an investor, but also for our clients too

Keith Weinhold 19:23

with that in mind, and again, a lot of our audience is already on board, knowing that little rock in Arkansas is a good cash flow market with stable, long term fundamentals, but in order to make it more profitable, you've overlaid it with a certain strategy there in Little Rock. Tell us about that.

Alex Craig 19:45

So the BRRRR strategy, yes, it's able to work now because there's not as many buyers in the market. So basically, the way the burrs strategy works is we acquire a property. I'm just going to use very round, simple numbers for simple math makes it easier on me

Keith Weinhold 19:58

and we're talking the BRRRR. Strategy that's buy, renovate, rent, refinance, and repeat. Those are the five investor steps.

Alex Craig 20:07

correct. And so that's what we do, is we buy. Let's just say the B. Let's take the B, for example, we buy a home, and we buy it for 60,000 where I'm just talking like if I own the home, and then I put $20,000 into the deal. So now I'm all into it for 80,000 and you have to remember, there's some in between, cost of closing costs. I'm just talking just very general strategy. You buy it for 60, you put 20 into it, and all of a sudden you're in it for 80, and the value comes back at 100 so you're in it for 80% of the after repair value. Most Fannie Mae lenders will do 75% so if you purchase a house outright, you put 20% down, but if you are doing a refinance, you're able they'll do it at 75% so instead of buying a home and putting it down payment upfront, you're using equity in the deal. And that's what the burst strategy is, buy renovate. So we buy it, we renovate it, we refinance it, we rent it out, and then you repeat it. So it allows for investors to scale their portfolios quicker and stretch their money a little bit further. So if you've got, I've got $50,000 and I want to invest in real estate, if you purchase a home, you're bound by the down payment. Once you put that down payment, it's, I wouldn't call it sunk cost, but that money's gone for reinvesting. The burr model allows you to stretch that money a little bit further. Now, like I said, I gave pretty basic numbers to the deal, but that's what you're going for. Some equity in the deal, and that's what we're able to provide for ourselves and for our clients.

Keith Weinhold 21:38

So let's review that numbers on a little rock burp, making a $60,000 purchase with a pre renovated property. Then the investor puts another 20k into it for the renovation. So now they're all in for 80k and they get a 100k appraisal on that property, and then they can borrow, say, 75% of that there, that is the refi portion, the fourth letter of the BRRRR acronym. So therefore they've got 80k into it, and they got 75k back, meaning they would only have 5k into it, but maybe another 5k for closing costs, and now they only have 10k in to a 100k property. That's the appeal. That's what we're talking about here with the BRRRR

Alex Craig 22:22

strategy. I mean, you're exactly right. And as I mentioned, I use some really basic numbers, because when you're using, you know, 100,060 and 20 makes them very basic. It's pretty hard to find out a deal worth 100,000 these days, even when we started in the industry, 100,000 was a pretty cheap after pair value. Probably the mean value of the homes that we're dealing in is probably about 140 to 140 to 160 but same principle, based on those same logic that what we just talked about, I wouldn't say, you know, five or 10k out of pocket, but if you're talking about purchasing a deal with 25% down versus doing a bur you're probably going to be in it at 15% Out of pocket costs 10 to 15% as opposed to putting a down payment of 25% but the big thing is, you're getting money back, and you're not putting as much so just it's great for scale. I don't know if you'll talk about DSCR lending very much on your show, but that's something that a lot of our clients, and that does 80% so we have a lot of clients going that route now too.

Keith Weinhold 23:21

Okay, so you could do 80% with debt service coverage ratio loans, but to drop back in our example, to help be clear, the investor has 80k of their own skin in the game into the property, 60k for the purchase, 20k for the renovation, even though they only have 80k in it appraises for 100k that ARV, that after repair value. Why is the after repair value 100k when you only have 80k into it? Why is it more?

Alex Craig 23:49

that's based off comparable sales? So when you're in it at 80, and you're going to refinance it through a lender, they're going to send an appraiser out, and appraiser is going to pull comparable sales within that neighborhood. So just because you're in an 80 the appraiser is going to go pull three comps, very similar to that home. So if we're selling a three bedroom one bath, they're going to pull three comps at a three bedroom one bath, relatively the same size look, if it's got a carport, they're going to try to find three houses with the carport. So in theory, that's what they're doing. They're pulling comparable sales and developing new value based on recent sales.

Keith Weinhold 24:23

So it's that you have this knowledge to buy in neighborhoods and buy in certain sub markets, where, when you know that capital is added and renovations are made and a rehab period that they do tend to appraise for that value based on the comparables that are already there.

Alex Craig 24:40

Yeah. I mean, if we were to take the same house at 60,000 and didn't do any work, he would then say, well, you've got some comparables here versus 100 but you could never sell this home for 100 these are the things you have to do, and that's what we do during the first R the renovate of the acronym is to renovate the home to the condition that the. Appraisers feel that are comparable for the neighborhood, and that's a real important part, is comparable to the neighborhood. We could go in and put in a Jacuzzi tub and grain of countertops. We actually, we do put a lot of grain in, because we get it so cheap. But you could go in and fix it up to the nines, but it's not going to appraise for any more than the others, because the appraiser would say, we over improved it. So we improve it to what we know, what the kind of the standard for the neighborhood? Because you could over improve these things for sure and not get that return on that investment.

Keith Weinhold 25:28

That is a great answer. There is a specific improvement target that you know that needs to be hit. Tell us more about this burr process, because to an out of area investor, it can sound pretty intimidating if they had to manage contractors remotely themselves,

Alex Craig 25:43

there definitely is a need to have a team on the ground that you trust, that you feel comfortable with, and that's what we've done. I've been doing it in multiple markets for myself since 2007 and we built into a business model in 2010 like I said, expanded Little Rock in 2012 and we've been doing this for 15 years now for other investors. So we've got that name and that reputation of taking care of our investors, that's the important part. And we do see a lot of investors get burned, because you can find a realtor to go to help you find deals, but usually the realtor relationship is thesis to end. It's okay, I found you a deal, but then there's so many other things afterwards, and the renovations, where I see so many people get burned, and you know, we manage approximately 1200 homes between two markets, and that's where I see when property owners come to us, they've been burned the most. It's like they've paid somebody $50,000 they didn't finish the job, they didn't do what they say they're going to do. So the renovation that we're the team on the ground, we've got a in House Project Manager, we've got a network of subcontractors. We tend to act as the contractor, subbing things out. We've got in house property management. We've got all the tools, but it's really between both. In the markets in which I operate. I've got about 30 employees within property management, renovations, acquisitions, so the team on the ground is and then the back in the property management part is the long, ongoing accountability. So if something doesn't work out, that's the way we said it. If we say it's going to rent for 1200 and we rent it out for 900 Well, we really got a big egg on our face. You do a few of those, and that's how you don't stay in business anymore. And there's, and I like to say, about every five years the market corrects itself into getting the wrong players out of the business. COVID was super easy, easy to find deals, easy to sell deals. But once the market changed and it became a little more competitive and rates rose, that's the people that have been around for the long time, been in it for the long haul, that stick around. They've got the established business model and their reputation. So every five years, a good correction in the market eliminates those bad players.

Keith Weinhold 27:47

So you have this vetted, proven in play system that investors can get into besides just identifying the property, it comes with that system, those contractors or that investor just has one point of contact with you there for updates on the renovation.

Alex Craig 28:03

Yeah. I mean, I feel like we know these neighborhoods. I like I feel we know these neighborhoods like the back of our hand. We've been investing in them for a decade plus, and we know the areas you want to be in, the areas you don't want to be in. And we have a lot of investors will call us either they already own the property or they're a current client, and they'll say, Hey, I could get this deal for 30,000 and it's worth 100 and I'm like, Well, that sounds too good to be true, especially if it's on the open market. If it was that good of a deal, it's already gone. We just know the market, where to be. We know what to pay. We could, pretty much just through our experience, identify a house we know probably within about five to 10% before we even dive into comparable sales of what it's worth. We could walk through a house within probably about three to five minutes and peg the renovation costs probably within about 10% now we still order an inspection, and that's where we uncover the things that we can't see, that maybe there's a bunch of rotted out joist or a foundation problem that we didn't see. So, but there's things aside we could walk through and we pretty much know, okay, it needs a roof that's 7000 it needs an air conditioner that's six flooring, two. So that's the expertise that we bring and like. So then the management part of it, on the back end, that kind of ties it all together with accountability.

Keith Weinhold 29:22

And I know that your typical project renovation cost tends to be about 25k just for simplicity, we use 20k in that example, and your completion times are shorter than others that have inexperienced crews. So tell us about that typical renovation time. Alex.

Alex Craig 29:39

every day we're accomplishing 500 so 25,000 divided by 500 comes to 50 days, 50 days. So we'll knock that out in about 50 days. And we just have a large network of subcontractors that we've been working with for years. If you weren't in the business, I think that'd be really hard to accomplish, and there's just a lot that. Goes into it. I mean, the renovating the homes, it's the once, it's the worst, it's the hardest thing that we do. For sure, it's definitely the most scheduling, but it's where, if you don't know what you're doing, a great deal turns into, how do I get out of this?

Keith Weinhold 30:15

Right, absolutely. Now, in our example, we used where an investor puts 60k into it for the purchase to start with, because I see the burst strategy is a good strategy. If someone doesn't have a lot of capital, like they would for maybe a new build property, can one even finance that initial purchase amount?

Alex Craig 30:35

Yeah, so private lending. So that's the part that makes if you've only got 50 grand to facilitate this entire process, and you want to try to repeat it as many times as you can. 50,000 would not be enough just to pay cash. So yes, we have private lending. We set that up. Sometimes we lend it ourselves. Sometimes we outsource it to some of our strategic partners, but we'll lend the money to buy and renovate the home. A typical what that loan would look like it's about 3.3 points of loan origination. So if you've got an $80,000 loan, that's $2,400 most lenders do require for you to bring that up front, and now you're in it for an $80,000 loan at 12% which, five years ago, that sounded crazy to borrow at 12% but with for private lending, that's not bad at all, especially you want to get in and out of it quickly. So if we're renovating the home, and you know, 50 days, if you're already pre approved with your lender, and they have all your documents by the time we finish renovating the home, the appraisals lined up, and you could be in and out of these private loans in about 90 days. That love that depends on the lending side, that you're giving the lender what they need. But ideally you want to be in these things about 90 to 120 days. So $80,000 loan at 12% that $800 a month. So if you're in it for 90 days, 800 times 320, 700 plus the loan origination fee. But that's how you do it. That's the you're just borrowing money to finance the acquisition, the rehab and the refinance

Keith Weinhold 32:03

that is an option for you if you don't have the cash here to come in with these burr strategy properties. Alex, tell us more about it. Really, what I would like to know is, when an investor gets their appraisal, their after repair value, how many want to sell it for a profit, and how many want to hold it with a tenant for long term income

Alex Craig 32:26

so far, zero. Want to sell it for a profit. If you're all in it for add and then you're selling for 100 once you sell it, there are other fees involved. You got to hire a realtor. Right now is a great time to hold it's a slow real estate market. I don't think Little Rock from an aspect, is where home ownership is down. I think that's a nationwide thing. So I think if you're going into this, you certainly want to look at it from perspective. This is a buy and hold. I don't think this is the best market to get into to buy something. Flip it with a in the example, we use a $20,000 margin with buyer concessions, realtor commissions. That's a lot of work involved. And let's just say it did work out. You sold it for 100 but you had to pay 2% closing in an agent fee, and you got some holding cost. Let's just say you netted 8000 that might be good for a six month return, but I feel like there's a lot of risk. I feel like our job as what we do for our clients, is to minimize risk. So someone came and said, Hey, I want to flip it. I would say, Well, I don't think it's the best market for it right now. I think you want to get into this buy and hold.

Keith Weinhold 33:29

Yes, Alex has been doing this for a long time, and he's a specific expert right there in that local market. Buy and hold is a strategy that most likely makes sense. And he also strongly recommends pay cash if possible, instead of using that 12% short term private lending option, like he mentioned before, because that can cut out about four to 5k worth of transactional cost. And then if you do buy and hold what Alex and his company offer there in Little Rock is essentially a cash flow boost, 0% management fee in year one and only 4% in year two. So that gives you some extra cash flow runway as well. And Alex, before I ask you if you have any last thoughts, I want to announce to you the audience, that we have a live event virtually next week, on July 17, at 8pm eastern for Little Rock BRRRRproperties that Alex is CO hosting with our investment coach, Naresh, where you can find these bird deals in this cash flowing market. In Little Rock you'll see actual bird deals recently completed with full breakdowns of their purchase prices, sort of these case studies, where you can see some real numbers and what the rehab budgets are and what the actual timelines were, and what the refi outcomes were like, and explore BRRRR ready properties that are currently available to own, if you so choose, on this upcoming live event that you can attend from the comfort of your own home. Learn the full process, from acquisition to renovation to property management to the financing of them, and again, everything is all handled by local experts, so that you don't have to live with the nightmare of remotely managing contractors, which I couldn't imagine doing. So whether you're a first time investor or you're scaling your portfolio, this is your chance to get boots on the ground, insight and a proven road map to burr success and really one of the most accessible markets in the country. Again, Alex here is CO hosting the event along with GRE investment coach, Naresh Vissa. It is a free, live virtual event again next week, Thursday, July 17, at 8pm Eastern. Sign up is open now at gre webinars.com it ought to be great. Alex, teaming with local experts like you has been of real benefit to our audience. Do you have any last thoughts about either Little Rock or burrs or the events that you're going to co host with our audience next week?

Alex Craig 35:57

So here's my last thought, as you were, you know, kind of concluding and I was reviewing what we had talked about. And one of the questions we get sometimes it's a fair question. It's like, well, if this is such a great deal, why don't you keep all the deals? So we hear that from time to time, and the simple answer is, we do. We do keep a lot of deals, and we're buying more real estate now, like I said, I feel like it's the easiest time to get into real estate. So we do, we do keep a lot. We're building a very large portfolio right now, but the house flipping to investors is just another business model that we have. And Property Management too. And we love property management, and we love building investor relationships. We've had a lot of investors we've had been with us since day one that we've developed really tight relationships with. So yes, we do keep a lot of the properties, and we sell properties too, and we and helps us build our management company, which you don't hear too many people say this, but we actually love property management. That's a hard thing to love, but we actually like it.

Keith Weinhold 36:54

That is more weird than Tom wheelwright loving taxes, perhaps, but Right. But I want to deal with somebody that really loves what they're doing, especially when they're protecting our asset and probably more importantly, when it comes to property management, protecting our time. So that's right, Alex, well, our viewers and listeners are really looking forward to it next week, again, that live event Thursday, July 17, at 8pm Eastern is something that you can sign up for now at grewebinars.com. Alex, we're looking forward to it next week.

Alex Craig 37:27

Bye, Keith, thank you.

Keith Weinhold 37:34

Oh yeah. Terrific overview on why the burr strategy can be so profitable. And our event next week. Now, when you rent your primary residence, which you would typically do in a high cost area, and then you own rental property elsewhere, typically a low cost area, do you know what that's called? Yeah, there is a name for that. Last week we spoke to two listener guests in California that are doing just that. That is called rentvesting. And yes, Little Rock is surely a popular low cost market for rentvesting. I have been on the ground myself in Little Rock with Alex's associate to do an on the ground tour of properties. There you want to tap into a system where you've got the guiding hand of both experience and belief. That's what you're doing here. As like he said, Alex personally owns 75 doors there. That is belief, and he's been doing this for out of area investors for 15 years. That's the experience part real proof of concept at next week's event, you'll be introduced to this same system where you can lean on their team for acquisition, renovation and management. Little Rock has an MSA population of about 770,000 but I think more importantly today, savvy investors are conscientious of keeping their expenses down, and for good reason, since they've been up all over the place. Now, the purchase price is 140 to 160k for these BRRRR optimized single family rentals. Remember that we used 100k just for ease of an example there, usually when you buy income property, you're really in at close to 25% of the purchase price when you add up the down payment and closing costs, but this way, you're in for just about half of that at 10 to 15% another low expense is that property tax, statewide, Arkansas Property Tax is just 610 of 1% so that's half the national average. And then your management expense is definitely going to be low for the first two years, because it is 0% in year one and 4% in year two. And these are properties that you can actually be pretty proud of. You'll learn more about this. Scope of work with a renovation on the webinar, often granite countertops in the kitchen is a live, remote event. So this means that you can have any of your questions answered in real time. Should you have them? As you can imagine, demand is high for these properties, and this is a chance to get connected directly with the team that makes it happen. We might never get Alex on an event like this again, and is co hosted with our GRE investment coach, Naresh. It's next week. It's free, Thursday, July 17, at 8pm Eastern, 5pm Pacific. Sign up now, or your future self might not be able to forgive yourself. You can do that now at grewebinars.com Until next week, I'm your host. Keith Weinhold, don't quit your Daydream.

Speaker 3 40:56

Nothing on this show should be considered specific, personal or professional advice. Please consult an appropriate tax, legal real estate, financial or business professional for individualized advice. Opinions of guests are their own. Information is not guaranteed. All investment strategies have the potential for profit or loss. The host is operating on behalf of get rich Education LLC, exclusively.

Keith Weinhold 41:19

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Keith Weinhold 42:35

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Direct download: GREepisode561_.mp3
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Mon, 30 June 2025

Keith discusses the evolution of the real estate market over the past five years, highlighting a 43% price surge from March 2020 to June 2022 due to low mortgage rates, remote work, and government stimulus.

By 2024, single-family home prices stabilized, but apartment values dropped by 30%.

Mortgage rates have remained around 6-7.5% for 20 months, with national home prices rising 2% in the past year.

We introduce two listener guests: Josh Fang, a 28-year-old investor who bought five properties using his income from a mortgage loan officer job, and Nate O'Neil, an experienced investor who leveraged his corporate job to fund his real estate portfolio.

Show Notes:

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559: Apartment Values Crashed 30% and It's Going to Get Worse with Ken McElroy

Complete episode transcript:

Automatically Transcribed With Otter.ai

Keith Weinhold 0:01

Welcome to GRE. I'm your host, Keith Weinhold, over the past five years, the real estate market has changed forever. So what are you supposed to do now? Then I talked to two GRE listener guests back to back. Here's some relatable stories this week on get rich education.

Mid south home buyers. I mean, they're total pros, with over two decades as the nation's highest rated turnkey provider, their empathetic property managers use your ROI as their North Star. So it's no wonder that smart investors just keep lining up to get their completely renovated income properties like it's the newest iPhone. They're headquartered in Memphis, and have globally attractive cash flows, an A plus rating with a better business bureau and now over 5000 houses renovated. There's zero markup on maintenance. Let that sink in, and they average a 98.9% occupancy rate, while their average renter stays more than three and a half years. Every home they offer has brand new components, a bumper to bumper, one year warranty, new 30 year roofs. And wait for it, a high quality renter. Remember that part and in an astounding price range, 100 to 180k I've personally toured their office and their properties in person in Memphis. Get to know Mid South. Enjoy cash flow from day one. Start yourself right now at mid southhomebuyers.com that's mid south homebuyers.com.

Speaker 1 1:48

You're listening to the show that has created more financial freedom than nearly any show in the world. This is get rich education. You

Keith Weinhold 1:58

Keith, welcome to GRE from Augusta Maine to Augusta Georgia and across 188 nations worldwide. I'm Keith Weinhold, and you are back inside get rich education if you got trapped in a cave back in 2020, and then you came above ground into the sunlight of 2025 and wondered what happened to the real estate investment market over the last five years. Here's the answer, and what it means to you, even if you weren't trapped in a cave, and I sure hope you didn't have to fight off a bat colony either. During the pandemic housing boom of 2020, to 2022 housing demand soared, in fact, from March of 2020, to June of 2022, prices surged a staggering 43% and rents ballooned too. And that was all amidst a few things, ultra low mortgage rates, a remote work boom and government stimulus. And for many, this unlocked Americans work from anywhere arbitrage. High earners were able to keep their income in, say, New York City or LA, pack up their laptop and head for state income tax free havens like Tampa or Nashville, and builders could not keep up. See housing supply, stock is not as elastic as demand. It's like steering a cruise ship. It doesn't turn out a dime. Inventory was drained, and you know, we had a full on housing supply crash that dipped to its Nadir in February of 2022 but just after that, all types of interest rates spiked later in 2022 to help stifle rising inflation, and what that did is that that quickly quelled homeowner affordability. Return to Office mandates began to gain momentum. National housing demand pulled back a near 180 was quickly underway. Sales volume tanked, and that put a lot of people in the industry out of business, realtors, mortgage loan officers, even furniture companies out of business by 2024 prices in the single family to fourplex space stabilized just with a slow growth rate, but apartment values lost as much as 30% from 2022 to 24 due to devastating interest rate resets under shorter term loans, and meanwhile, the income required to buy a modest starter home rose from 49k in 2020 to 101k last year. That's pretty NAR and the term forever renter became both a meme and a. Reality, and since construction, efforts to build have been uneven, apartment supply actually exceeds demand in a lot of markets, and over in the one to four unit space by adding inventory, there's now 30% more available year over year, but it remains under supplied nationally, especially like I've discussed in the Northeast and Midwest, where building has been meager to completely non existent. That's why it can still feel impossible to find a house in much of Ohio or New Jersey, but you can rent an apartment in Austin, Texas faster than you can get a Wendy's drive through order. Mortgage rates have now stayed in this same range of six to seven and a half for 20 months, and national home prices are up just about 2% in the past year. Now, when Trump began his second term in January of 2025 markets got giddy with business friendly optimism, but this Trump bump that reversed fast when he slapped half the planet with tariffs housing demand cooled again, because no one buys a house when they feel like their job might vanish, alright? So amidst all of that. How do you adjust your strategy with what's changed over the past five years? Well, real estate still pays five ways, and since you're not betting it all on price growth like you would be with most other asset classes, this way, you've always got a side to play with. Affordability down now, rental demand is heating up. With more inventory on the market for you to purchase, there are more motivated sellers, especially those shiny build to rent homes. You do still have to deal with mortgage rates that are higher than they were four or five years ago. Refinance on the rate dips if there's low inflation rates fall if there's high inflation, well, then your debt arose faster. So this is what I mean about you having the ability to play both sides today, and this is big, the number of renter households are at a record high, and they're rising. Landlords are giving fewer concessions. Increasingly, they hold the cards in the single family rental space and annual rent growth is expected to heat up from its current zero to 3% Well, what is next? Short term housing value should stay stable, but not sore, and don't count on a big mortgage rate drop at all for the rest of the year long term, expect more inflation in strong demographic demand. Those things are almost certainties, and that's the good part for real estate investors. So really the overall market report card today, let's grade it out in a report card, sellers are doing just okay. Buyers are strained. First time home buyers are in the worst, the roughest shape. I mean, they grade out at an F single family rental landlords are in good shape because people that want to buy a single family home can't, so they rent apartment landlords, they are strained, and renters are holding steady. They're doing pretty well until steeper rent increases kick in. So really, the bottom line here is that it's been a more tumultuous five years than usual. Housing demand lapse supply and now it's coming closer back into balance today, home prices are stable, the amount of buyers are waning, and the hordes of renters are growing. And where are we today? Well, earlier this month, our president called our Fed chair a numbskull.

Donald Trump 8:56

If we cut our interest by one point for years, we save 300 billion. If we cut it by two points, we save because it's pretty equivalent we're going to save, we're going to spend 600 billion a year. 600 billion because of one numb skull that sits here. I don't see enough reason to cut the rates now.

Keith Weinhold 9:21

oh dear leaving you with a little knee slapper on the five year summary there. Look poor and middle class people feel like everything is expensive. That's because they pay for everything with money they've exchanged their time for. That means they feel like they're paying for everything with their life, because they are and that's exactly why money feels like a scarce resource. Instead, real estate investors pay for things according to what our assets are producing for us and what other people's money is producing for us. And that's why we can pay for what we want, and money feels like an abundant resource, not a scarce one. That's what today's two listener guests discovered somewhere along their path, fueled by this show. Now sometimes I answer your listener questions here on the show when you write into us at get rich education.com/contact, other times, I bring listener guests right here onto the show. That's what we're doing today. Today's both happen to be based in California. The first guest is a young investor, and the second guest more experienced. These were just recorded. Understand they aren't professional speakers. And also, if you bear with a few early audio difficulties with our first guest, you're going to be rewarded with some relatable takeaways. Our first listener guest, Josh Fang, started listening to the get rich education podcast as a college student in 2016 or 17. He first heard episode 84 that's when Robert Kiyosaki made his first appearance here. That episode was called the rich don't work for money. Then he went back to Episode One and listened to them all, 560 episodes. Now let's meet him.

This week's GRE listener guest is a 28 year old real estate investor based out of Irvine, California. That's SoCal, and he has already reached what he calls semi work, optional status, fantastic. He's been a GRE listener since 2017 that was at age 20 when he was a junior in college. The GRE podcast inspired him to become a mortgage loan officer, and he's become a top performer at doing that, originating loans after graduating college. He used the money from that mortgage loan officer job starting at age 22 to buy five income properties, two through mid south home buyers and three elsewhere. By the way. Again, he's 28 now. GRE quite literally shaped his adult life, and having enough passive income to fully retire is pretty much his only goal. Now he's got passion for talking financial freedom through smart borrowing, strategic thinking and action over perfection. Oh, I love that. Hey, welcome to GRE. Josh Fang, thank you for having me. I really appreciate it here on the show, I talk about borrowing and lending a good bit, because if you're gonna make something of yourself, you need to leverage the efforts of others. So tell us about how you got your first job in the mortgage industry and how it set the foundation for your investing journey. Josh,

Josh Fang 12:31

when I graduated, it was really rough. I had a business degree which didn't really open up too many doors. At that time, I couldn't find a job for six months, I was just applying everywhere that I could. Now keep in mind this entire time, I'm looking for a job. I'm listening to your podcast, and you know, how can I the income and the money to purchase some rental properties for some passive income? And one company responded to my resume for a mortgage company. So I was able to get an interview, and I actually got the job by quoting, you know, mortgage guidelines that I learned from your podcast. Your Podcast, such as, for an FHA loan, you need three and a half percent down. For a conventional you need 20% down, just the most basic of the most basic mortgage guidelines. And actually was able to land a job, and in the very beginning, they start you off pretty much. I mean, as a telemarketer, it's pretty rough, long hours, you work weekends, I was making $17.48 at the time per hour, and with that basic income, the 17.48 an hour, I actually was able to buy my first rental property without even the two years work history. And the way I did that was by using my college degree as work history, because there is actually a guideline to where, if you have degree that is in the same field as where you work, it does actually be counting work history. And it was really funny at the time, I was living with my parents, another document that I needed to go through underwriting. I needed a letter from my dad, a signed letter from my dad saying I didn't pay rent because I was living at home. And off that 17.48, an hour, I was able to buy my first rental property. And from mid south home buyers, everyone there was so great. They were so helpful in helping me through the loan process, through selecting a property, and I was able to close. And the time that I bought my first rental I was only 22 years old.

Keith Weinhold 14:20

This is remarkable on a few levels, with just those few lines, about three and a half percent down FHA or 20% down conventional that sounded compelling enough for someone to want to give you an opportunity and then off that modest starting wage, how that really helped you accumulate to buy income property and yeah, when you're buying in those investor advantage places, those prices are low, but that's still pretty remarkable that you were able to do that. So talk to us some more about that, buying your first rental property at age 22 surely younger than most people about that process and the mindset and really that leap of faith that it takes Josh because most people are not doing this.

Josh Fang 15:00

Yeah, absolutely. And I think I had a really big leg up in terms of mindset, because I was starting to listen to your podcast when I was so young, when you're young and you're growing up and you're a young adult in college, you know, you hear from your teachers, your parents, your friends, older people, and they say, oh, invest in the stock market. Buy a primary residence to live in. And the big thing that I learned is I don't live in the same world as the world that my parents grew up in, and I can't invest the same as well. Great point there's, I live in Southern California. The medium house price of where I live in, in the city of Irvine, is $2 million yeah, that's ridiculous. I would never, ever be able to purchase a primary residence out here, and buying stocks are at all times highs. I mean, that's arguable, but I think stocks are quite overfit. So investing there didn't make too much sense. And what you always talked about in terms of building a second flow of income, having that be passive to where I don't need to work regularly, is what really motivated me to move towards that. And in terms of making the first step, I think the most important thing by far, is just setting a goal, saying at least for myself, it was, hey, I want to own a property. I want to provide safe, affordable housing to a tenant, and I want to be able to make money off of that, to where I don't need to do something physically for it every single day. And then after that, it just about taking the steps. The first things first is I reached out to some of the house providers. In that case, it was mid south home buyers, gave them a call, spoke to them, say, Hey, can I please be put on your list? Perfect. Then it was just continuing the work, doing more research, continue listening to your podcast, learn tidbits here and there, lots of Googling, lots of Googling, looking up terms that I didn't understand when I read through the analysis of the property. Hey, what does this mean? What does that mean, Googling it, learning one step at a time. And then when it came time and I was actually receiving properties that I could buy, it was about getting the mortgage, and it was about, hey, let's just move one step at a time. Okay, today I need to get these documents, and the next step, I need to get these documents. And before you knew it, I was signing with a notary closing on my first property,

Keith Weinhold 17:10

the autodidactic approach, meaning the self taught approach, with some assistance from my show. But yeah, oftentimes listening to the show can be the stimulus to make you want to learn more, probably, because I talk about the why for real estate, and if you don't know your why, you won't care about how So Josh, are you doing something that some people do in high cost areas, like you live in in SoCal? Are you renting your own place? And then you provide rental housing to others outside your own area. In investor advantage places is that your setup?

Josh Fang 17:44

100% where I live in Irvine, it is extremely, extremely low crime. Everything's a planned unit development. It is beautiful out here. There's trees, there's lots of different foods from different cultures. I absolutely love living here. The only issue is is it's ridiculously expensive. I live in a very nice luxury apartment complex, and I pay of extremely high rent that normal people probably wouldn't be able to pay. But rather than coming out of my pocket, I use the cash flow for my rentals to pay for my rent over here. So it's kind of like I'm building equity, even though I'm just renting, and I get to live the life that I want to live, where I want to live it, while still being able to invest the proper way. In my opinion

Keith Weinhold 18:26

that's beautifully said and well thought out. And part of doing that, Josh is this borrowing money, which I think to lay people, is scary, and for someone in their 20s to borrow money, that could really bring a good bit of trepidation, because that goes against the grain of what so many people do. But of course, we talk around here about how borrowing money like you have for your rental properties in other states outside California really is not something to fear. So can you tell us more about how you approach that mindset?

Josh Fang 18:57

Absolutely, and it's always hilarious when someone asks you if you if you have any debt, and you tell them $500,000 when you're 23,24 years old, the biggest thing about borrowing money is now, again, there's different types of debt. So I'm not saying, hey, go buy some expensive car that you're going to be backwards on in a few months. Don't get a bunch of credit card debts at 24% interest rates. I'm talking about debt from a with a collateral attached to it, such as a mortgage. The way I like to think about borrowing money is borrowing like a bank, because your money has value. Whenever I have money in the actual bank, it doesn't feel like it, but I'm actually lending money to the bank. They're taking the money that I have deposited and lending it out to other people at higher rate than what they're paying you back. That's how they're actually making the money. I'm thinking like a bank. And of course, that's exactly how it is with borrowing money for rental properties. The interest rate that I have to pay on my mortgage is so much lower than how much income I'm receiving by actually renting it out and providing housing for someone. And then, of course. Tax deductions.

Keith Weinhold 20:00

Sure you're creating arbitrage there when it comes to paying off or aggressively paying down a property. I mean, some protection financially is surely good, but one has to realize that after some point, when you protect you cannot produce another way to say it is if you use your dollar to pay down, then you cannot use your dollar to multiply.

Josh Fang 20:25

I agree with that 100% I couldn't have said it any better.

Keith Weinhold 20:28

You really took action something that a lot of people don't do. I don't think you did right away. You listened to some episodes for quite a while, but you did overcome analysis paralysis at some point. So talk to us about more with that mindset of how you took the first step, even when you're still perhaps a little unsure.

Josh Fang 20:46

I think you say it best, and I know I'm literally taking the words out of your mouth, because, again, I'm a long time listener, but do the right thing before you do things right. Yes, rings so, so, so true. You're never going to be perfect. There's never going to be the perfect property. There's never going to be the perfect deal. Eventually you just have to do it. And again, all it really is is saying, Hey, here's what I want to do, and what are the steps that have to take to get there? If the first actual step, rather than just listening to the podcast or getting more information, if the first step is, hey, I want to get a pre approval. Go ahead and get it done. Reach out to a loan officer, get your pre approval, get the documents needed, get the right information that you need, and then start writing offers on properties, or contacting Keith and his team, their GRE mentoring team, and ask for property values. And once you find one, and again, you're never going to find the perfect property. Once you finally say, hey, this fits enough. Jump on it. You should be excited. I mean, again, once you're doing the right thing, you can learn to do things right. And slowly, kind of say, Hey, I made a small error there. Hey, I made a small error there. But at the end of the day, you move forward and you're ahead of where you started. I think that's the most important thing.

Keith Weinhold 21:59

Yeah. I think uncertainty stops. Some people, maybe even uncertainty with the larger economy. Or maybe people just look for excuses for inactivity. Sometimes there will always be some uncertainty out there. And what you do when you make an offer on a real asset is you just made some certainty in your life. Yeah, just talk to us more about the process of kind of you started with your first property and then growing that portfolio. And what did you learn between the first one in that second, third, fourth and fifth one, where you are now

Speaker 2 22:32

after buying my first one, when I received that first rent check, after that first rental property, my net cash flow after management expenses, putting a little, you know, VIMTIM, keeping an extra 10% away to just keep in the bank in case something came up. I wish cash flowing at the time. $231 doesn't sound like a crazy amount now, but as a 22 year old kid and saying, Hey, I got this $231 without lifting a finger, felt amazing. I had this feeling, I'm out in Southern California. We had this burger chain called in and out. My double double burger and fries combo was about $6 at the time. And I said, no matter how bad things get, no matter how bad things get, that $231 I can buy an in and out meal every single day, as long as I own that property. I just had such an overwhelming feeling of, when can I get the next one? I immediately, immediately reached out to MidSouth like, hey, put me on the list as soon as I have money. You know what? Keith, it got fun. It got fun every time I got an email saying, Hey, here's another property. Like, wow, if I can make this deal work, that's an extra couple $100 I can have at the end of the month every single day. And now I live in my own apartment complex, in a unit in an apartment complex, but at the time, I rented out a room in a house, in a condo, just a single room, and by the time I bought my second rental property, all of my cash flow from my two rentals actually covered the full amount of my monthly rent living out outside of my parents place. And that just felt so so so amazing, because it was like I almost had no overhead. So all the money that I was making for my job was completely disposable that I could use to purchase other rental properties. And that was just such an amazing, freeing feeling to know that no matter what happened, I obviously as long as there's no vacancies or any kind of crazy issues there, that I would still have that flow of income coming in pretty much after buying my first one, all I wanted to do was buy more. Now, a big issue that happened was 2020 and 2021 there was very little inventory, so really tough and slim pickings, and I would have bought a lot more if I could find more deals. And now, thinking back, I should have, if anything, I wish I bought more.

Keith Weinhold 24:50

Gosh, I just love that Josh, that seminal $231cash flow from that first property, and how you rationalize that that could buy you in and out. Meal every single day, all month. If that's what you wanted to do with that first one, that's terrific. And yes, markets change. There's more inventory available now than there was in 2020, and 2021, mortgage rates are surely higher. You don't have as much competition. You might even get a concession or two when you buy since it's a more balanced market today than it was about four years ago, for sure. So every market cycle is different. When you realize you're paid five ways at the same time, there's always one side to play or the other. There's always so many variables that you get to deal with there. Have you had any certain issues with property management, or do you have any mindset about using a property manager remotely. I assume you're using remote management for these turnkey type properties. Is that right?

100% I've actually never physically seen any of my properties. Yeah, what you say is the best, essentially, your team that manages your property is the most important by far. Right? Right now, here's the thing, issues are going to come up. Regardless of what happens. There's always going to be something that breaks. Eventually, there's always going to be vacancy. Eventually there can be natural disasters, something's always going to come up. And the thing is, you can't get angry about the things that you can't control. If there is a vacancy that you know you vetted the tenant properly, and there was nothing to do if there is a natural disaster or if something does break down in your property that you couldn't have expected coming or that wasn't your fault. The biggest thing is, you can't get angry with it. You just have to know that you can deal with it properly, and having a professional team on the other side saying, Hey, we're going to handle it. This is an issue. Here's how much it's going to cost. We got a couple of you know quotes. Please approve one when you get a chance, and knowing that the other side will be able to execute on that and to do it for you, and that you don't have to fly out wherever you own your property and do it yourself physically, or have to call around and find a contractor to do it, it's a huge peace of mind, and having a property manager and a team that you can trust just makes it work. If I couldn't get a property manager that I trusted, I wouldn't own the property in the first place. It's just too much work.

I am the same way. I also have not seen the majority of the properties I own. I've never seen them physically, in person, yeah, having a professional property manager, they provide a buffer, and they help keep this investment unemotional for you. And Mistakes happen when people get overly emotional about their properties. Some people are reluctant to hire a property manager, Josh because they don't want to pay the eight to 10% property management fee, which can actually be a little bit more than that effectively with leasing fees. But people feel that way, as oftentimes they're confining and limiting their search to their own local market, which probably isn't investor advantage. So they don't have enough of a cushion in their pro forma, in their profit and loss statement to pay for a property manager. But when you buy in those investor advantage places where you get that high ratio of rent income to purchase price. There you have the allowance to pay for the manager too,

Speaker 2 28:06

100% and luckily, because I have my foundation of real estate from listen to your podcast, I never even look at a deal without factoring in the fact that there will be management. I have never, ever even possibly considered self managing. It just makes no sense. I'd rather, let's just say it's 10% and a month's worth of lease, which is a little bit on the higher end in terms of management fees, right? Even if I were to do I would factor that in 100% of the time if the deal doesn't work, if it doesn't cash flow, if it doesn't, you know, appreciate a certain amount, if it isn't in my ballpark, with the management fees taken out, that's not even the deal that I'm looking at. It's just too expensive.

Keith Weinhold 28:47

Yeah, that's a great way to think about it, keep it unemotional and make it all relatively passive. I self managed for the first six or seven years of my real estate investing career, but that's because I was only investing in my own local market, and I was thinking small, and I didn't learn about finding the best investor advantaged places nationwide. Well, just as we wind down here, is there any last thing that you'd like to let the audience know or to tell us, I know before we recorded, you had talked about how really, your Daydream is more realistic than you think, and the motivation behind getting started. What do you want to leave with? Josh?

Speaker 2 29:22

You say it after every podcast. Don't quit your Daydream. I've been hearing that for eight years now at this point, and it really is, I don't have a day job. I pretty much only work when I feel like it. The majority of what I've lived off of is the income properties that I've bought and the lifestyle that I've crafted. It's so freeing. No one's telling you what to do. You don't have to go somewhere every day. You can spend time doing what you want. When I first quit my day job, and, you know, went into this semi retirement, I'm not gonna lie, I play video games eight hours a day for months, or maybe a month or two. I don't know if that's the most productive. It. But the fact that I could do that, I could obsess on crazy hobbies for a while was crazy. But one of the most important things to me of being able to reach this point in my life is I'm starting to get a little bit older. I am able to spend time with my family. I am able to spend time with my grandparents, and, you know, just like on a Tuesday or like on a Wednesday, just when nothing's really going on. Just being able to stop by and say hi to my family and spend time with them is something that I'm so blessed to be able to have, and not many people can do. And then the last thing I'd like to say on that is just, there's very small things in the world that a lot of people don't get a notice. Because I feel like everyone's in a rush all the time, and a lot of people are. You know, if you're working 40 hours a week, nine to five, you know, nine to six, there's not much time. But the other day, I was taking a small hike, and I saw a group of lizards. I thought they were cool, so I looked at the lizards. I spent maybe 15 minutes watching the lizards. I wasn't in a rush, you know, I could just enjoy the small things in life, and that's one of the best things in the world to just have that sense of not being in a rush. And I feel like investing in real estate and having that passive income and having that level of freedom. To me, that's what my Daydream is. There's nothing better to me.

Keith Weinhold 31:14

the simple pleasures about not having your time so confined that you could enjoy looking at lizards for 15 minutes. I love the small stuff like that. And does this mean Josh? I mean with five rental properties that you only need to work part time rather than full time, because usually five properties don't allow someone to completely leave the workforce.

Josh Fang 31:32

No, not at all. I definitely do things on the side. I still do loans for friends and family. I do some other stuff on the side, but it's more of that my basic needs are met for the most part.

Keith Weinhold 31:43

That's terrific. You've got more latitude to live and having a life of options Trumps having a life of obligations 100% Well, hey, it's been great hearing your story. Josh, loved having you here on the show you're listening to get rich education. We got to know listener. Guest, Josh Fang more, and we come back with another listener guest, profile, I'm your host, Keith Weinhold.

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Jim Rickards 33:49

this is Arthur Jim Rickards. Listen to get rich education with Keith Weinhold, and don't quit your Daydream.

Keith Weinhold 34:05

our next listener guest has an uncanny amount of similarities with me, like me, he was a geography major in college. He had humble beginnings in upstate New York, not far from where I grew up, in upstate Pennsylvania. He's a huge believer in real estate pays five ways, and he loves world travel. His first job out of college was, in fact, traveling the world, playing basketball against the Harlem Globetrotters. We sure don't have that pro basketball part in common. He owns dozens of units across seven states today. He's listened to GRE for six or seven years, and he was a corporate guy living in California who thought the book Rich Dad, Poor Dad was fiction, until he experienced the rapid appreciation of he and his wife's first primary residence. And after that appreciation, he knew he had to acquire more real estate. Prices were too high in California relative to rent, so he. Went out of state, and he had just one property for five years to learn that was pretty similar to me as well. And then he saw tremendous opportunity after the GFC hit in 2008 and that really put him on a path through experience the five ways real estate pays over time, and he became convinced that there's not a better risk adjusted business model that's easily accessible to the average person. Hey, welcome to GRE Nate O'Neil

Nate O'Neil 35:25

Keith, it's great to be here. I've been, as you mentioned, a long time. Listener. Really appreciate the content that you put out, and excited to be on the show

Keith Weinhold 35:32

and you're no longer playing like zero defense basketball against the Harlem Globetrotters. You work in the solar industry now. I know that you sell to single family rental REITs. That's really interesting. And one thing that real estate investing lets people do is think differently about their w2 jobs. So tell us about how that manifests with you. Nate,

Nate O'Neil 35:56

growing up, you know, the first 25 years of my life, 24 years or so, my identity was wrapped up as an athlete, and, you know, something I could really get excited about eventually, that had to come to an end, and started working in the corporate world. So did that for a little while, and got going. It really, you know, didn't resonate with me that much. But, you know, I had a wife, and I had some kids on the way, so had to keep grinding it out. And, you know, as I did that, I discovered real estate, and what really helped me with that was I saw the corporate world began to be a vehicle to grow my real estate portfolio, right? Instead of it being the desk jockey in the cubicle, my corporate job was okay, this is the way for me to raise capital and get the best loans to build a real estate portfolio so, and it's ironic, because as that kind of evolved, I gained, you know, more appreciation for the corporate job, and it didn't, it wasn't so burdensome. And I know there's probably a lot of people out there right that feel that way about their job, but you can probably do a mindset shift and say, hey, you know, this can serve me in other ways and it not be such a grind.

Keith Weinhold 37:03

That's a great way to think about it. While you have that job, it sure is an asset in helping you qualify for loans. Right before I quit my job, I made sure I qualified for as many loans as I could, because I sure would have had a hard time getting them immediately after leaving my job, before I built income or build up passively from something else. It's funny, when you're in the corporate world, you're in this context of normalcy. So many people that you know are working. You're around your coworkers all day. They're working, and if it's something you're not passionate about, yeah, you still don't question it, because it takes on that context for normalcy. But once you leave your job, it feels bizarre that anyone would ever show up and spend five of their seven days and most of the waking hours of those days doing something that they're not passionate about. Now maybe you are passionate about what you do. That's where the mindset that I think through there, but that's a good way to help a person feel a little bit better showing up at their job, even if it is a soul sucking job. Nate. So talk to us about this more with this sort of power of purpose that you had, and when you are working your day job, you probably do some living below your means in the short term, but a lot of people just do that decade after decade and grind it out. So how do you think about that with the mindset in this sort of capital formation stage, in order to acquire more property while you're working?

Nate O'Neil 38:29

Like I said, it was an opportunity that the job became an opportunity to fuel the real estate business, which, as you mentioned, I saw that opportunity in 2009 right when prices were low, when interest rates were low, when there was a bunch of nice new foreclosures on the market, I saw the it created a sense of urgency in me, right? So I was like, All right, let's go to work, because the work's going to drive that capital, and the capital is going to allow us to acquire more and more of this real estate, which is, again, something I was passionate about, because we had this just that one rental for that five year period, I saw the power of what it can do over the long term. And when you have that purpose and that clarity, then all the minor stuff that you can get wrapped around and can kind of slow you down, really doesn't matter you have that big vision and that big goal that you're going after that really kind of drives you

Keith Weinhold 39:20

now, before we got started today, I learned that you have a few ways of thinking about how real estate investors can have their cake and eat it too, more tactically. Here tell us about that. And of course, what is the point of having cake if you can't eat it?

Nate O'Neil 39:33

Yeah, for sure, worked in some different industries and some different companies, and seen a lot of different business models. I've never found anything where you can have kind of both sides of the cookie here, or hack cake eat it too. You can depreciate an appreciating asset. The government allows you to depreciate homes, right? Which gives you a nice tax benefit. The money that I make that my corporate job is taxed at a much higher rate than my real estate income, but yet the asset actually appreciates. Dollars. So you depreciate an appreciating asset. I think people underestimate the power of the 30 year mortgage, right? You can lock in an interest rate today for 30 years, and if interest rates go up, you did a great job. You locked in a great, great rate. If interest rates go down, you're a champion. If you just refinance, when you do a 30 year fixed rate mortgage, the lender is committing to you for three decades, but you don't have to commit to them. So again, have your cake and eat it, too. And then you know the whole return on amortization that you talk about, Keith, yeah, when you get to borrow money that you don't have to pay back, in essence, right? The resident that's in your home is paying that money back. So people think about they hate getting bills in the mail. I actually love getting my mortgage statements in the mail. Every month I go through this little ritual, I look at it, and my process is, wow, how much was that principle paid down? Right? I didn't pay it back, right? The rent payment paid it back. So what other scenario can you borrow money that, quote, unquote, someone else is paying back on your behalf,

Keith Weinhold 41:02

that ROA, that return on amortization, also known as principal pay down. Where, yes, you get that statement every month, and you get to see how much a stranger paid down for your property. It's basically a stranger every month is faithfully funding an illiquid savings account for you,

Speaker 3 41:22

it's just incredible. And then the final way I kind of think about having your cake and eating it too, is, is this HELOC strategy. So over time, as you build equity in your portfolio, you can take out a home equity line of credit, right? And the beauty of a line of credit is you open it up and you don't have to make any payments if you don't use the money. But when there's an opportunity, you can pound for that opportunity. And this is what we did in 2020 and 2021 we acquired some new construction fourplexes with HELOCs. And when in using the HELOC strategy, you're able to use every single dollar to keep the balance low. And what it does is it creates this virtuous cycle of increasing cash flow, because it's a line of credit, and you pay off against that, that line of credit, if you need the money back for an emergency, or if a better opportunity comes up, then you basically just pull more off that line of credit. But if you don't have that opportunity of that emergency, then your money is fully working to keep that payment low, which increases your cash flow, and again, it creates that virtuous cycle of of increasing cash flow, which you can use to pay down the HELOC. Even more

Keith Weinhold 42:29

I see no downsides to getting a HELOC to getting a line of credit against your existing primary residence or your rental properties, whatever they are. It's like this flexible credit card where you're drawing on it with your property as collateral, and it's at lower interest rates than a credit card is going to be. And you also have interest only flexibility, meaning even if you draw against it, and you do have a balance and you need to make a payment, therefore you can pay as little as only the interest portion if you want to. In fact, when I bought my first fourplex in order to fund my second fourplex, I took a HELOC second mortgage off of that first one. Love the HELOC really can't think of any downsides with at least having it there. And then it's up to you as to whether you want to draw against it or not. Absolutely talk to us more about you're another out of state investor based in high cost California. There. It sounds unusual to lay people, but here we are as successful investors owning these properties, typically that we have never seen out of state. Are you in that category as well? And talk to us more about the out of state investing experience

Speaker 3 43:40

I've only ever seen one of the units that I own, the rental units that I own, and I actually think it's a huge advantage, because if you're seeing them driving by them all the time, there's probably little nits that you could point out, and, you know, you get some kind of emotional attachment to them. The way I look at it, it's two things. Number one, it's the spreadsheet behind it, right? What are the numbers behind it? What is my mortgage payment? Is there Hoa, taxes, insurance, all that stuff, and what is my rent? And obviously, I'm all about cash flow, so that rent payment has to cover all the expenses with a little extra. The second piece of it behind the spreadsheet is the person managing it right? And I've been very fortunate over my years of investing to find some really quality property managers who I know I can trust. So, you know, absolutely, I mean, developed an ability to hire the right people to manage the property, and they handle just about everything, and I just need to be there, available for them if they have questions for me or decisions I need to make. Fully trust them. I have only ever seen one of the units that I own, and you know, never really planned to go out and visit them.

Keith Weinhold 44:44

You do like to travel, but just not necessarily to your 200k turnkey single family home in the Midwest, in the south, not where you want to stay. There are some advantages and some disadvantages of owning rental properties, say, four blocks from your home. One of the distinct disadvantages is, yeah, you might get that emotional attachment to it. You might get bogged down in inconsequential things. You might drive by and see that the hedge needs a trim. How much of a problem is that really?

Nate O'Neil 45:14

Exactly it, as long as the spreadsheet behind it is spitting out the right numbers, and you have someone that you can trust that can handle anything that that's major, or any tenant issues that's all that's really relevant.

Keith Weinhold 45:26

Has our investment coaching helped inform you at all? Helped you find properties or give you inside information or access to deals or other support?

Nate O'Neil 45:35

Yeah, I have had a conversation with Naresh. One of your investment counselors doesn't, haven't necessarily acted upon that. But, you know, I can say over the, you know, six to seven years that I've been listening to your podcast just understanding kind of the macroeconomic guests that you bring on in the markets that we believe, you know, are good for investing. Like that, information has been extremely valuable to me over the years.

Keith Weinhold 45:57

Our coaches are really deal scouts here in today's market. For example, things are just so much different than they were during the 2008 GFC years. There are always deals in every cycle. You typically just need to shift and find out where those opportunities are. Are there any specific niches or opportunities that you're exploiting today in this particular cycle? Nate

Nate O'Neil 46:19

yeah. So it's really interesting, and I've been spoiled, right in terms of the times when I did a lot of my acquisition back in 2008 we knew it was good, but looking back, you realize just how good it was at that time, and frankly, now is very challenging, right? I mean, affordability is the worst that's been in 40 years. Yeah, right. So you have to be really creative. You know, one of the things that I did recently was I learned how to do a loan acquisition. So assuming a loan can be very helpful, right where you're not dealing with today's interest rates, you can get yesterday's interest rates on a property. So that's been one thing, and one thing I continue to look at. I also believe that I've been focused on single family in some four plexes. I'm looking at smaller multifamily because what I've learned is there's opportunity when there's debt disruption, right? The great financial crisis happened because there were atrocious lending standards leading up to that time, right? So that opened up a window of opportunity. That opportunity is closed. Acquired some fourplexes in 20 and 21 when interest rates were unbelievably low, right? Basically, the Fed funds rate was basically zero. That kind of unique debt situation allowed me to acquire there and now, right? Since 2022 interest rates spiked so quickly, the way I think about it is the debt disruption period, there's probably some acquisitions that happened with, you know, three to five year short term loans that are going to be coming due, and those acquisition are facing payments that are going to double. So there could be some motivated sellers, not in the single family right, where you have 30 year fixed rate or 15 year fixed rate, but in those small, multi family loans, where they have those short term variable rate debts. So that's kind of how I'm thinking right now.

Keith Weinhold 48:05

That's perceptive. It's something I brought up on the show a month or more ago where apartment buildings have got to bottom out at some point those being sensitive to those shorter term interest rates. Well, Nate, this has really been helpful. You've given our audience quite a few things to think about. Is there any last thing that you'd like the audience to know?

Speaker 3 48:25

We talked a little bit about purpose, like that's very important. There is no better way, in my opinion, to build wealth for the average person, no more predictable way risk adjusted, to build wealth for the average person. You know, for the listeners out there. It's great that you're consuming this content, and if you can find a purpose behind it, then it'll help. And the other thing is, get clarity, right? There's a lot of different things you can do within real estate investing, but get clarity on what works for you. And the way to do that, frankly, is just kind of sit and think, I think, you know, especially in today's day and age, there's so many stimulus coming at us, from social media to everything that there's a risk of not being able to get clear. One of the big things that helped me during that, that period of, you know, 2009 to 2015 when we started to scale, was I was very clear about what we wanted. I had a buy box that was, you know, homes built this millennium B grade neighborhoods, cash flowed $300 or more with no more than 25% down in markets with population growth, job growth and favorable rent to price ratios. And when I was able to communicate with the agents and property managers, I was very clear on what we wanted to do. They had clarity on what they needed to do to help us scale so purpose and clarity.

Keith Weinhold 49:41

That's great guidance a specific Buy Box. Yes, focus is harder to find, and it's really important today. It's amazing. Nate, how much work I get done when my phone is one room away, over on the charger. It's incredible how that works. Well, it's been good to get your insight, and it's been good to talk to a guy. That might know the capital of Argentina much like I know a fellow geography guy and real estate investor. Yeah. I really want to thank you for sharing your insight with the audience today.

Nate O'Neil 50:11

Nate, I hope it's valuable for you in the audience.

Keith Weinhold 50:20

Oh yeah, good, relatable material this week, the first guest, Josh, also talked about how he took out a low interest rate car loan. So he held onto those funds rather than handing them over to an auto dealer, stayed liquid and used it for income property, creating a yield for himself that beat the car loan interest rate pretty smart. And before you do that, you do want to be sure that you've got enough liquidity to serve as debt. And then Nate the second one, the more experienced investor, reminding us that deals are not as good as they were coming off the global financial crisis. And he's right, but I still don't know of a better risk adjusted return today, like me, they both use professional property management. I mean, you do have the option of self managing your property remotely that you get from GRE marketplace. But of all the things in the world that you can learn about, even all the things in real estate investing that you can learn about, is self managing really what you want to spend your finite resource of time learning about. Even if you've got good tenants, you're bringing more intrusion and interruption into your life. Property managers don't just protect your asset, they protect your time. Big thanks to GRE listeners, Josh Fang and Nate O'Neil today until next week, I'm your host. Keith Weinhold, don't quit your Daydream.

Speaker 4 51:50

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Mon, 23 June 2025

Keith discusses the new power shift in the housing market, where buyers now have more power in the Northeast and Midwest.

Ken McElroy joins us to discuss the current state of the real estate market, highlighting a significant decline in apartment building values and a predicted further drop in home ownership rates, potentially below 60%.

They note that while some states, like Arizona, have surpassed pre-pandemic housing supply levels, others, like the Northeast and Midwest, still face shortages. Ken emphasizes the importance of affordability and the shift towards renting, predicting a significant increase in renters.

He also shares insights on strategic property investments and the benefits of buying at current market lows.

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558: From Sound Money to Monopoly Money: America's Currency Collapse with Russell Gray

Complete episode transcript:

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Keith Weinhold 0:01

Welcome to GRE. I'm your host. Keith Weinhold, apartment building values have crashed about 30% in the past few years. Well, it's the opinion of today's qualified guest that it's going to get even worse from here. We'll also discuss why rents in the Phoenix area are declining, and a bold prediction on a collapse in the home ownership rate and the hordes of renters that that will create all today on get rich education.

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Speaker 1 1:59

You're listening to the show that has created more financial freedom than nearly any show in the world. This is get rich education.

Keith Weinhold 2:15

Welcome to GRE from the Tigris to the Euphrates to the Mississippi and across 188 nations worldwide. I'm Keith Weinhold GRE founder Forbes real estate council member, Best Selling Author, look for my work in the USA today as well, and you are back inside for another wealth building week of get rich education. What's all that really mean? Ah, I'm just another slack jawed mouth breather with a mic here. Before we get to today's guest, Ken McElroy, let me tell you about housing's new power shift and where we're at today. Three to five years ago, sellers held all the power in virtually every market because the housing supply was so miserably low everywhere. So you had more one tours of real estate and few that were willing to sell. That is still mostly true on a national level, but the new power shift is about the fact that the Northeast and Midwest are replete with home buyers. Queues of buyers are lining up for the few available properties like I've touched on before, and look low available housing supply in these areas, the Midwest and Northeast, that's not a symptom of mass in migration. Hordes of people are not stampeding into Buffalo for the nightlife. It's all due to chronic under building, partly from strict regulation, especially in the Northeast. A big part of the power shift, though, is that we now have fully 10 states that are above pre pandemic supply levels, and you'll notice that none of these are in the Midwest and Northeast. The 10 states are Arizona, which we'll talk about more today, Colorado, Florida, Idaho, Hawaii, Oregon, Tennessee, Texas, Utah and Washington. Here in these places, is where the tables have turned, because supply is catching up with demand in those 10 states. So that's where we're seeing softer home price growth and where buyers have the power, these are some of the states where you can find better deals. Motivated sellers and builders in these places will often buy down your mortgage rate, give you closing cost credits or reward you with incentives, like a free year of property management. In fact, our GRE investment coaches guide you for free to exact property addresses where builders will buy down your mortgage rate to 5% today, one of them will even give you a $9,800 post close credit instead, if you so choose. Often do. Those like that are in those 10 states. They're elsewhere too. You can get started at GRE investment coach.com, conversely, 40 states have less for sale housing inventory than they did as compared to pre pandemic times. This is where sellers still have the power some of the most competitive markets in the nation are buffalo, Hartford, Providence and Boston, where more than 10 active home buyers vie for every single listing. That's per Zillow. That's sort of the real estate equivalent of a Taylor Swift or Beyonce ticket queue. At the other end of the spectrum, shoppers have an easier time in Miami with only 2.6 shoppers per listing, followed by Houston at 3.4 New Orleans at 3.5 and San Antonio at 4.3 nationally active listings are up 31% over last year. That's quite a bit, but we're still 12% below pre pandemic, 2019 inventory levels. And is all this good news or bad news? It totally depends on who you are. If you're holding property in the Northeast and Midwest, you're pretty happy about this strong appreciation in the single family space, but in the southeast, appreciation is non existent. There's even mild depreciation, especially in parts of Florida. If you're looking to own more property in the nation's southeast quadrant, you're now enjoying less buyer competition. In fact, sellers are competing for you, and let's avoid being too assuming. Here I've been talking about things on the state level. States are not monoliths. Philadelphia is not Pittsburgh, Seattle is not Yakima. Cities have different supply situations. Even within one city, the scenario varies, of course, really the bottom line here is that today's recovery from 2022 national supply abyss has been an uneven recovery, where builders are frozen, appreciation soars, where builders hustle, buyers win. So if you're looking for deals, find that short queue.

Today's guest is a familiar one to GRE listeners. He's based in Scottsdale, Arizona, which is the Phoenix Metro. Arizona, though it's fast growing, is still just the 14th most populous state, but Arizona is an interesting market, because we're going to get to see what happens when you have an overbuilt condition, like we do there. We'll discuss that market and the national market as well. Get a key gage on the direction of rents, occupancy and prices, first in the single family space, and then we'll talk about apartments. Anyone that's paid attention to real estate that past few years. Knows that when mortgage rates spiked in 2022 single family values have held up, apartment values plummeted due to their interest rate resets. We'll get insight on if the beleaguered apartment space has bottomed out price wise, or if apartment values still have further to fall.

I'd like to welcome in frequent GRE guest, and he was also one of our earliest back in 2015 Ken McElroy. Ken authored a bunch of successful books, both within and outside of the rich dad series. He's also a well known, successful apartment syndicator with over 10,000 units across several states, and he's also in other parts of the commercial real estate sector, including billboards and self storage. So it's really great to have back on the show. Ken McElroy

Ken McElroy 8:57

good to be here, Keith, thank you. It's been 10 years, man, since we've been doing

Keith Weinhold 9:01

this? Yes, 10 years back in episode 25 since you were first here, more than a decade of this. So we know each other's work really well, and it's such an interesting time in the apartment space. I want to get to that later in our conversation today and really find out if you think that the apartment space has bottomed out. But before we do that, let's talk about the single family space. The audience should know that you can meet both Ken and I in person, as we're both faculty members on the spectacular real estate guys Investor Summit C, which is actually underway now. We're recording this just before the summit. So let's discuss the direction of rents and occupancy. We'll get to price later and Ken although most states still have a housing shortage statewide, Arizona's active housing inventory for sale is 24% above pre pandemic levels. That's what realtor.com tells us, and this. Deeply due to a lot of building, a lot of building usually does not bode well for price growth or rent growth. So tell us about rent, direction and occupancy in the single family space in the Phoenix Metro.

Ken McElroy 10:15

There's a bunch of things happening in the Arizona market. First of all, one is we've had a lot of people move here right in the last 4,5,6, years. Yeah, post pre pandemic, post pandemic, all of that. We are a pretty small state. You got Phoenix, got Tucson, you got Flagstaff, a bunch of other small cities that kind of surround some of those. But it's not like a Texas or a Washington or a lot of these California, like a lot of states, and have a lot of cities to draw from. If people move to Phoenix, that's pretty much where they're they start a lot of times, not every time, but and so it's really interesting. When we have net in migration into Arizona, it really moves the needle for most of these cities. Is kind of the point. And so we're always going to be affordable, we're always going to have great weather, it's safe. We got pretty normal politics, I should say, as compared to some of the others, we really do have a growing population. And so what happened? We had a nice run on the real estate. As you do, you know, we had a nice run on the apartments. We had a nice run on the single family that tapered off when the interest rates went up, essentially, right? You know, we actually built too much. We built too many apartments. We built too many houses. When interest rates went up, people kind of pulled back. That's what you're seeing now. So right now, it's a great time to be a home buyer. It's a great time to be a renter in most of those cities in Arizona specifically. And why would that be? It's because they have a lot of choices. So on the single family side, the listings have gone up, and therefore some of the prices have you know, people are starting to negotiate a little bit more. Now here's the interesting thing, Keith, if you measure it on last year or the year before, it has huge numbers, like you just quoted, you know, 24% but what's happening is things are on the market like 40 days, you know, you know what I mean, like from a week or two, it's doubled or tripled, as you know, that's still not a very realistic market. The market is still, in my opinion, pretty healthy. It's not unbalanced, and before it was a seller's market, and so it's just normalizing. And normalizing, to me, if you go over year, over year, over year, is I think MLS says four to six months of inventory, right? I think things are just normalizing. But if you've been through the run, this is like the end of the world, right? But it's not. It's just things are settling down, and it's the greatest time because they're supposed to be a little bit of friction between the seller and the buyer. I believe there should be just about right. It's never just right, as you know, it's usually pulls on one harder on one side or the other. But we just went through an incredible time where the sellers pretty much got whatever they wanted and the landlords pretty much got whatever they wanted, and so this is just pulling back, you know, the tide's going back out. There's no cause for concern, at least in my world at all. It's supposed to be this way, and we need affordability. We need people to be able to buy homes. We need people to be able to rent. Yeah, I'm in the landlord business, but I don't want rents to run. There needs to be a balance there, even though it's good for me, if it does, but it's not good, because what happens is, then the government gets involved, and what they need to get involved in is adding supply, right? And not capping the rents. You know, what they need to do is just work with developers. And you know, because we're growing here in Arizona right now, we're seeing a pullback, but I think it's needed. There's nothing wrong with this. It weeds out a lot of, you know, realtors that weren't doing much, that just got their license, were hanging around, say, with mortgage folks and title people and lazy contractors and all that stuff. So whenever there's a pullback, the professionals win.

Keith Weinhold 14:01

Well, this is some really good perspective here. We're all victims of the recency bias, and, yeah, you're talking largely about market normalization. What sure wasn't normal or healthy, in a lot of ways, was back in 2021 when you might have had 50 offers for one available property, and people had to bid 50k over the asking price, and they might have waived their inspection, which is typically not a good idea when we talk about rents in the direction of rents, especially there in the Phoenix metro with single family homes, which I know your wife, Daniil, is pretty intimately involved with. Typically, this new supply increases competition. It increases the competition for landlords competing for more of those tenants, which is something that typically is not good for rents. Have we seen declining rents in the local market there in Phoenix?

Ken McElroy 14:54

Of course, yeah. And I'll tell you, there's a bunch of factors. So there's always cross currents. People want one. Answer, but there's not right, like, so let's just pick on a whole bunch of things that went wrong at the tail end of all of this. It was Airbnb. Like, Phoenix and Scottsdale are a huge Airbnb market. I've rented Airbnbs there. Sure. It's incredible, right? And so what happened was a lot of people said, oh, I can buy this house, throw some furniture in it. And, you know, I can get 10,15, 20 grand a month in rent out of these things. And they were right. And then what happened was, there just was too many, so became oversaturated. So you're definitely seeing those back on the market. And so interesting fact, Heath, all you got to do is look at the pictures. And if you see bunk beds. You know, it used to be an Airbnb like, you know what I mean? So that was the one, but two, let's don't forget this run that we just had put a lot of people into the rental market for the first time on the single family side too. So we never really had this many landlords on the single family side as well. And so there's all these mistakes that people made. They bought incorrectly. They had capex work. They bought with floating rate debt. And when rates went up, they weren't cash flowing. They wouldn't know how to manage them. So So there's all this stuff that was kind of going on behind the scenes, on the apartment side of the equation, which is where I hang out. Mostly, I watch all this. And because my class A buildings are competing for single family. They have single family typically wins because it has a yard, has a garage. Nonetheless, I gotta pay attention to it. So it's been interesting to watch. At one point you could not find a home in the Scottsdale area under 500 grand period like nothing. And now, of course, those are starting to come down a little bit more, and there's some softness in the rent, so the renters are have more choices. Now, why is that? There's a couple reasons. If you're a renter and you're looking for a place, you know, I'm sure you're considering a house, but not everybody wants a house, especially if you're single or maybe it's just you and somebody else, and maybe you don't have a pet. There's a lot of reasons that people just don't want to have to a home. So you've got condos and you've got apartments and you've got homes, and then you have school districts. So people definitely want to be in certain school districts based on their children. So you have all these cross currents going on, on where people want to be. And so what does all that mean? What that means is there are certain markets, from a rental standpoint, that are doing extremely well, still, both on apartments, on condos and houses. And then there are other markets that absolutely are not just depends on the concentration of all those things and all those factors that are going on. The one thing that's actually disrupting a market more than anything is apartments and condos. Because, for example, Danielle just had a condo that she owned, and the condo was worth, let's say, 300 grand, but it's probably 25 years old now, yeah, and there's apartments going up, you know, a block from there, right? So her renter is said, you know, I'd rather go over here. Brand new amenities, nine foot ceilings, brand new fitness center, all this stuff. So apartments really do reach into that rental market a little bit. And so there is some spillover between that. But primarily what's going on in Phoenix is there's a lot of new construction. And not just Phoenix. This is Tucson and Greater Phoenix. There's a lot of new construction that was started when rates were low. They were started in 2122 and you know, like, because I'm a builder, it could be a year to 18 months when we're opening a project from the time we put our the shovel in the dirt, we're not even open for a good 18 months. So there's a lag period. And those started opening in 23,24 and certainly 25 and these big projects, two, 300 unit projects, which I have several going right now, they're one to two year lease ups, so you could be looking at two or three year lag on some of the housing that's being provided. So that's all here now that is been good for renters. There's a couple horror stories going on, and I'll just explain. So downtown Phoenix, there was a whole bunch of apartment projects and condo projects that were built trying to attract people to live in downtown Phoenix? Well, there's challenges for downtown Phoenix too, and we won't have to get into that. I don't particularly think that there was ever the real demand for the amount of housing. So what you've done is people build a lot of housing in concentrated areas around the stadium in West Phoenix, near the Cardinal Stadium downtown Phoenix, you know, right in the heart of the business district. So if you were to rent something today, it would be four months free on a 12 month lease.

Keith Weinhold 19:48

Wow, that's about the steepest concession I've ever heard of in my life.

Ken McElroy 19:54

Yes, that's today. So all you gotta do is Google it and you'll see. And the only reason that happened, Keith, is. Is because there was too many units delivered at at a short period of time, and there was the demand, wasn't there? Gosh, now go 10 miles up to Tempe, go to Chandler, go to Scottsdale. No concessions, right? So again, you know, when you look at a market, you're going to see that it typically a lot of these concentrate in certain areas. And so there's a lot of areas in Phoenix where the consumer or the renter has an upper hand a lot. And so they're driving their choices based on their monthly rent. All of that plays into this thing, but the there's areas that are rock solid. And you know that would be Scottsdale, Tempe, Chandler, Gilbert, and there's areas that are over built that would be the west side, downtown Phoenix, the south side, there's areas that there's pockets that you know are in disruption you can kind of pick your poison, right? Like, if you're a landlord, there are areas that you want to buy in areas that you don't want to buy in. And as a renter, you have the same kind of choices. So when you blend it all together, you guys get the national news. But really it's pretty pocketed, just like it can be in any market.

Keith Weinhold 21:12

Well, you bring up so many good points there. Some of these markets that have done more building than usual are in this situation where there is landlord competition for tenants. Now, nationally, we're still under built, so it's interesting to talk about one of these overbuilt conditions in that competition for tenants, like we've been talking about, in general, a tenant prefers a single family home, and it's privacy for sure. They can't always afford that, but the apartment market and the single family rental market are somewhat interrelated, because if there's so much new apartment supply, it's got the appeal of being brand new, and there might even be concessions given, like you've mentioned there Ken and that can make it very attractive for a potentially wannabe single family home renter to go ahead and rent an apartment instead. So this glut of new apartment supply actually can affect the single family rental market somewhat, and competition is really interesting. I mean, certainly in my real estate investment career, I've experienced that. The first time I ever experienced that was that I owned several doors, and they were about 25 years old, and they had garages, each one of them a new apartment complex was built close to those so brand new, and you had to drive by this new apartment complex. Everything nice, shiny new, painted new parking lot, everything a prospective tenant had to drive by that in order to get over to look to my units. That softened my rent somewhat. The one thing that saved me a bit is that my running units were in Anchorage, Alaska, I had the garages with my units. The new apartment building didn't. They only had carports, so I did have a differentiator to help soften the blow in a rental market that became more competitive. Tell us more about the competition for tenants there in Phoenix, whether that's on the single family side or the apartment side can with concessions. And does that mean that you're altering the length of leases there in the local market? Or tell us more about how you're doing that competition?

Ken McElroy 23:10

It's a great question, yeah. So I would say generally, a home is going to be about 1000 bucks more on the average, like if you were just to put a number on it, three bedroom, Rambler type home with a garage in a yard. It's going to be maybe three grand. That apartment, the equivalent was is going to be maybe two grand. So roughly, those are kind of the numbers. But what happens if you're going to rent a house, you're definitely going to pay more money, that's for sure. And of course, depending on the area, depends on the on the rent. Now what's happening in a lot of these markets, like West Phoenix, for example, where you have 1000s of units being added at once, and you get this one month, two month, three month, and the extreme, of course, being four months free, if you're a renter and your rent is two grand, but you get three months free, let's say or four, you're going to take that deal, right? Because your your your average rent is, what 12,13, $1,400 a month, not 2000 so all of a sudden, it's going to impact those single families. So what's happening right now is the apartments that got delivered in in a lot of these geographic areas, these sub markets are definitely impacting the single family rental market. Now, if you're a family and you've got kids and you got pets and you want to be in a school district, you're not even looking you're basically just trying to find the best deal on a home. I get that. But if you have a choice, the rents are about the same, you're going to take the house, sure period I would, you would. So now what's happening is there's, there's such a difference between the rental price of a home versus the rental price of a brand new apartment that people are going to gravitate to the apartments, because those landlords trying to fill those things up are scrambling and marketing to anybody. And everybody and cutting whatever deals they can, because they're just trying to get out of those construction loans. It's a weird market right now. And of course, there are areas Keith that this does not exist at all, right, like you go into like Tempe, and you're not going to have because it doesn't have the available land, you know, which is around Arizona state for example, the Arizona State University. You go into North Scottsdale, you're not going to find this because North Scottsdale doesn't like apartments. And, you know, the homes are a million bucks and up, but there are definitely pockets where this is happening. So if you're a renter and you have choices, this is a great time for you and and to be honest, it's about time, because it was a seller's market and a landlord's market for a long time, and so it's just reverting back to the mean.

Keith Weinhold 25:46

Let's wrap up the discussion about rents and occupancy with what's happening nationally. Ken, since in apartment buildings, you invest in multiple states there, we know, for example, that the home ownership rate recently fell from 65.7% down to 65.1% fewer homeowners means more renters. But that doesn't necessarily mean that they're all going to be absorbed immediately, either. So talk to us about that.

Ken McElroy 26:13

There's an affordability problem, right? We haven't seen a massive adjustment with house prices now you have in areas, of course, I saw your recent podcast on Florida. You know how right the price of a house is, is less than a car today? Yeah, you're right, like so, but what's happening is there are markets that are pulling back, right. There are markets that had a bigger bubble than others, and they're pulling back. And so there's great deals in those markets. A lot of areas in Florida being one of those markets, there are other markets where you don't have that. So we are definitely seeing the same thing. And so we're having, in my opinion, it's the greatest time, because you have people that are, I think, should be able to buy a home. But interest rates seem to be holding at Six 7% and the pricing, albeit, hasn't run like it has, but it's certainly not pulling back like crazy either. It's still over 400 on the average, you know. So if you look at the delta between what it costs to buy a home just mortgage only, and you look at what it costs to rent, it's never been bigger. So the difference between your rent, the rent and a mortgage, has never been bigger. And the other thing Keith, that doesn't get talked a lot about are everything non interest rate and everything non mortgage. So let's start talking about insurance. Let's talk about property tax. Let's talk about, you know, capex. So there's a really good survey that bankrate.com did that said that right now, the average cost to own a home, not mortgage, is 1500 a month. So now that's average. I'm sure there's some that's less. I'm sure it's some that higher. So when you take 1500 a month to own it, plus the mortgage you're talking about quite a bit. It's a heck of a financial commitment when you can just rent for 12, 1314, 1500 and call it a day, you're going to move the needle twice as fast, and you're going to be able to get out of whatever financial situation you're in twice as fast when you don't have all those other costs. So what's really going on now? And the reason why you're starting to see this home ownership rate go down, and I actually make a prediction, gonna do it right now on your show, I think it's gonna go down below 60. I think for the first time in our history, we're gonna see home ownership in the 5050 nines, which is a massive statement. But if you take a look at under Obama got up to 69 and then it was, first of all, it was Clinton, and before that, and then kind of ran, but then it kind of got pulled back under the Bush, and then Obama kind of took the brunt of it. You know, when all that stuff was falling out, but it's been falling, and it's falling. Why it's falling? Because people can't afford a home, and they need to be able to afford a home. So we can't build affordably. The single family market is not affordable, and inflation surpassing wage growth, so you have this massive shift of people, in my opinion, moving from home ownership to the rental side. And there was a time where 1% shift Keith was 1 million people,

Keith Weinhold 29:27

1 million new renters, with every 1% drop in the home ownership rate

Ken McElroy 29:32

was 1 million people. So imagine that it doesn't sound like much when you go 65.7 to 65.1 right? That's a lot of people. When you got about 142 million people in the US, or a billion, right? 340

Keith Weinhold 29:46

350 million in 300 Yeah, about 145 million houses,

Ken McElroy 29:51

45 million, yeah, something like that. So you start to take a look at these numbers. They're massive. So these little 1% movement. It is a lot of people. I think we're going to continue to see it. People need to put their stake in the ground here and get on the landlord side of this, because we're going to see a massive shift of people because they can't afford they're going to be permanent renters, renters for life. And it's not good. I'm not advocating, but it just is what it is, with wage destruction, with inflation, with the affordability, the way it is, people are going to be forced into the rental side of the equation, whereas before, we were always kind of working on the fluctuations of the interest rates and the policies of the President, let's say, or whatever it was, to try to get people to be homeowners, or whatever it might be. Now, we might be in some kind of a permanent state unless something really changes, because we're four or 5 million houses short in the US as a result of the last 20 years. As you know,

Keith Weinhold 30:54

I recently saw a media article that was titled The hidden cost of home ownership, and they were talking about hidden costs as things like maintenance, property taxes, property insurance, utilities. I don't know how in the heck those costs are hidden. Any prospective homeowner needs to be aware of those costs, and inflation impacts those costs, where inflation cannot impact your fixed rate, principal and interest payment. There we have it a brazen prediction from Ken that the home ownership rate will drop below 60% in this cycle and the hordes of renters that that's going to release, we're talking about the direction of rents and occupancy in both Phoenix and the nation at large. We're going to come back after the break and talk about the direction of real estate prices. You're listening to get rich education. Our guest is Ken McElroy. I'm your host. Keith Weinhold.

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Keith Weinhold 33:32

Welcome back to get worse education. We're talking with seasoned investor Ken McElroy, and he's also been one of the most recurrent guests here on the show. He's just consistently got some of the very best perspectives in the entire nation on the real estate market. And Ken the Fred data, which pulls their numbers from Kay Shiller, it shows that the value of a mid tier single family home in Phoenix, Metro wide, has basically been flat for the last year and a half. I know your wife, Daniil, deals with single family rentals there in Phoenix. Can you corroborate Is that what you're seeing as far as values go there on the ground, or is it different in the sub markets

Ken McElroy 34:20

it's definitely different in the sub markets, but I would definitely concur that it is flat, Keith, it's a very interesting time. People are used to selling things fast. Oh, I'm going to sell this and it trades, and then they're moving it right to something else. They're not used to the markets that you and I grew up in, right which is, you remember the old days where we would list something and it might be on the market for three or four or five months. These people, these kids, these let's last 10 years, they have never seen anything like that. So for me, I think we're just moving back to what I would consider to be normal. I don't see a problem with flat at all. In fact, I think homes are unaffordable and. And flat isn't necessarily bad. That means that both sides are kind of doing deals. That means the seller doesn't hold the cards, and it means the buyer doesn't hold the cards, and so right now is a great time to buy because if a seller is sitting on something for even a couple months, they're not used to it. There's deals to be had right now. And it's, I think, if you have the dry powder and you have the ability to move, is a great time to buy.

Keith Weinhold 35:26

You had mentioned, when we were talking outside this show, that your wife, Danielle has made some interesting moves in her single Yeah, yeah, tell us about that.

Ken McElroy 35:36

It's a fantastic move. I mean, one of the greatest, obviously, I'm doing these big apartment deals, she can't relate, and she's doing these small houses, which she loves. She doesn't like debt. She likes to pay them off, and she manages them all herself. And so she bought this condo years ago, and it's worth about 300 grand, and she paid like 164 years ago, and the rents have dropped. You know, per our last conversation, they were used to be around 1900 now they're around 1700 but the same time, rents have dropped. And why would rents drop? Because there's more competition. There's new apartment buildings being built around the area. The tenants have more choices. Again. There's, you know, rents came down a little bit. So she lost couple 100 bucks a month there, and the HOA hit her with costs. Our insurance went up, our landscaping went up, so all of a sudden their HOA fees started going up. So the rents came down, and the HOA costs went up, squeezes on, yeah, so all sudden she's got this squeeze and so she's looking at it. And I said, you really ought to take a look at your what we call imputed equity. In other words, she has no debt on this thing, so she literally has another way to say it is she has 300,000 sitting in a condo, an asset. What does it matter? What it is and she gets maybe, what does she make it 500 a month, maybe $6,000 okay? Net Cash Flow a year, right? Nothing. So you take your 6000 you divide it by your 300 and it's not a very good return. Yeah, eight. Okay, so she's looking at what we call imputed equity. What's your return on the equity you have? Okay, so she said, I'm going to start looking at these homes that have, like you said, the garages and the yards, because again, we know that should be able to get closer to $3,000 a month on those so she started scouring, and she found one, and it was about 450 grand. So she had to come up with another 150 grand. And so what she did was she sold the unit, the condo she had that had rising HOA and lowering rents for 300 she did a 1031 exchange into the $450,000 house, and then she had to come up with another 150 but her rent now is three grand, and she was able to increase her cash flow By almost $1,000 for a month. So that extra 150 generated about $12,000 of net cash flow gain. And so again, she just purely looked at the math on one and did a 1031 moved it into another one. And now she's super happy it's in a home. And as you know, in a lot of these homes, not always, but you tend to have people that don't move as much. So this the guy that moved in has his son. He has him in a local school. He's young. He's probably going to be there for years, so she's probably not going to have the turnover that she would in a condo project. That's really more like an apartment building. That's what she just did. And so don't forget, when prices are high, you're exiting high and buying high. When prices are in flux, a little bit like they are flat, you're going to be able to find deals. So it's a really good time to take a look at imputed equity and what's your real, true return, and is there a better asset class for you to be able to move that money into? Because this is truly about managing money and maximizing your return on your own dollars. And that's a move that she just made, and she's going to be on the cruise. She'll see you, and I'm encouraging her to actually do a talk on it, because there's a lot more detail to how she pulled it off. But it only took her, like, four or five months to do it, and it worked perfectly.

Keith Weinhold 39:22

Yeah. Well, congratulations there. I'm a fan of debt around here, as you know, on the summit, Daniel and I'll have to have a chat, and I'll talk about why financially free beats debt free and all of that. But I would love to hear her reply. She probably has some really good, sound reasoning for that can nationally apartment values have followed perhaps an astounding 30% because the way I see it is that three or four years ago, there were tons of new apartment starts with those freakishly low mortgage rates like you touched on. Start to completion of an apartment building can be as long as two years. So those starts have now become completion. Dollars, and they need to be leased up. So that's the glut, and that's why apartment vacancies are common in a lot of American markets today, with higher mortgage rates now, we have fewer starts and with less new future apartment supply coming onto the market, which would have been completed in 2025 to 2027 I mean, that's something that could portend well for the future, but the current apartment glut still needs to get absorbed by tenants. So talk to us about that.

Ken McElroy 40:29

That's a great, great tee up for me. Okay, so I'm going to do seven transactions this year. Now, that's all 200 plus units. So I bought 360 unit building and brand new in Las Vegas. We just closed on a 282 unit in north Scottsdale. We bought 152 unit in Phoenix. And on and on and on and on and on. We're really, really, really busy right now, because, to your point, why would we be doing that now? Here's why apartments are valued based on how they're operating period. So high vacancy, high concession, flat rents, high expenses. That's all bad if you own it, it's really good if you buy it. So you want to buy at today's numbers, and that's what we're doing. We're buying at today's numbers, and we think that there's a little window that we've got through 26 to be able to acquire a bunch of apartments at these low values. To your point, they've definitely dropped. There's another case as to why, because the next piece is when the mortgage rate's high, cash flow is less. So when your mortgage payment is higher, all things being equal, your cash flow is less. So when rates went up, then people could pay less, and that drove values down. So if we could lock in today with all this disruption, so that's what we've been focused on. And it's been a very exciting year for our company. And in addition to that, to your point, but you and I have never spoken about, we just broke ground on another deal, and we're just leasing up on a deal down in Tucson that we're we're a 300 unit building that we're just finishing, and we just broke ground on a 312 unit, and we got a couple more slated because we're trying to break ground today. And why would we would break ground today because there's not a lot of subcontractors bidding on the stuff. So we're getting better pricing. The interest rates are high. This is true. That's not necessarily a positive, but we're breaking ground in anticipation of opening in two years, when all this stuff gets absorbed, we're going to be opening and so, you know, if we could time it today with 25 we break ground, we're going to open in 27 this stuff will be absorbed by then the blood will be in the streets in 25 and 26 and maybe early 27 and then it's going to shift again, Keith, and you know, people are slow to react. And so we think we're going to hit this little window at optimal time to be able to open up brand new product in two years.

Keith Weinhold 43:05

That's great. Ken we've been having these conversations for over a decade now, I know, and the way that I see it is that MC companies, your company, was built exactly for times like this. Is that to say that you think apartment values have reached their bottom,

Speaker 2 43:22

so I actually don't think they have yet. That's a funny comment, and here's why, because we also went through this extend and pretend time with lenders, right? So the lenders, whoever bought something, was trying to hold on to it forever. But now, with this new administration and the battle with the, you know, Powell still in office for another year. Who knows really, what's going to happen with rates? Maybe a quarter here, quarter there, whatever. But the reality is, there's no relief in sight. It doesn't appear. Because now we have this high vacancy, we have high expenses, and I don't think there's going to be a lot of interest rate relief. And so I think the lenders are going, you know what? We're gonna start listing these. So we're starting to see just in the last few months, brokers call. I got a call the other day from a broker out of San Antonio. He said a lender called me. They gave me nine deals. He said the keys, they gave me the keys on nine deals now and then I got another one in Dallas. It was 35% occupied, and the loan was 25 million, and the guy said they would take 14, so that's an $11 million haircut to the lender. So you're starting to see these. These are coming into my emails, right? Because they flooded. We are kind of deal. Yeah, it's so good. Now I've passed on everything so far because I think the knife is still falling a little bit, and so I think we're in the first few innings of seeing these kinds of deals, and there needs to be a lot of them, right? Like they need to be everywhere. And then when they're everywhere, everything's listed, and people are looking at them, and there's all this interest, then I think we're going to be at the bottom, but we're darn close. I mean, we're darn close, I would say. Right? We're probably by end of the year close. That's why, if a prudent investor, is getting their dry powder together, now they're meeting with their broker relationships, now they're meeting with their lender relationships, now they're putting together their LPs, and they're starting to go out and look at deals. Now, even if it's no no, no, no, no, no, no. This is the time for you to build relationships and be ready to strike when you start to see stuff this year, toward the end of the year, will will be the bottom and then I also think next year is going to be rocky for a lot of things. Then you're going to see a lot of lender write offs.

Keith Weinhold 45:37

This is really good guidance for what you the listener, can accidentally do if you are a prospective apartment building buyer. Great insight there. Ken. Ken, yes, you and I are about to be together on the real estate guys Investor Summit to see but there's another great event that begins at the end of next month that you put together.

Ken McElroy 45:59

Tell us about that. This is great. I have now we have about 4000 investors. So these are all high net worth people that invest with us. And you know, this is our 24th year in business. So when I meet with all of them, we used to do these investor summits, they would say, What about gold? What about silver? What about oil? What about water? What about timber? What about self storage? What about Office? What about retail? So I'm like, I'm going to create a conference where I can have everything in one spot, and we can invite high net worth, accredited people be able to come there and listen to the best of the best. So no professional speakers, just people that are really doing deals. You know, like we have guys that are building wellness spas and hospitality. Obviously, we have some single family. We got multi family. Got a retail guy, industrial guy, commercial guy, office guy. We got a gold panel. And then we got these economists, and you probably know some of the names. So we got George gammon coming. We got Jeff Snyder, who's unbelievable Euro dollar University. He's coming. We got Brent Johnson, who created what's called the milkshake theory. And just Google it, you'll see it's all about the central banks. We got Jim Rickards, who wrote currency wars and a new case for gold. And we got Lawrence Lepard, who just wrote this book called The Big print. All coming as speakers unpaid, and they're just going to try to deliver the best value they can to the people. Because I tell you what, Keith, I don't know about you, but it's confusing. I'm reading about tariffs, I'm reading about inflation. I'm reading about unemployment. I don't know where interest rates are going. I'm feeling it at the street level, at the main street level, with my apartment buildings, they're harder to manage. The expenses are going up. I try to create this environment to where people can show up and hear real real things, and they can make real decisions and course correct, right, and also take advantage of of some other things. We're also having a manufacturing panel, and I got a whole panel just on the Trump tax bill, because the opportunity zones, the bonus depreciation, all the stuff, these are things that you can do to be able to take action. So this is limitless expo.com. Since we're on your show, they can do KEN10. KEN10, which is a discount, the prices do go up. Obviously they're the highest. They are in July, because that's when the event is but in June, they're still lower. So I would suggest that people go this year, especially with this new administration, and everybody's like, what is going on? Hopefully we can it's starting to clear up some of the confusion that we all have right now and try to figure things out.

Keith Weinhold 48:36

It seems like all we do know is that we don't know limitless ought to help clear some of that up. It is July 31 to August 2. Tell us where it's taking place.

Ken McElroy 48:47

Yeah, it's at the gaylord in Texas, in Dallas, Texas. It's called the Gaylord Texan. It's limitless expo.com. Now we did it last year. There'll be 2000 people. We have 50 speakers. We have five stages, 50 speakers. It's a really high end event. What I mean by that is these are real people doing real deals with real businesses, real investors. It's been fantastic. I haven't had to pay speakers because of the quality of the attendee. That says a lot. It's really been interesting and great. And by the way, I don't really think having big speakers to sell tickets is the way to go. I'd rather have a real quality event, and it's really interesting once you set your mind on something. Because my investors and other investors show up because they do more than invest in just what we do. Like real estate. Everybody wants a little piece of real estate, but they also want to know about Bitcoin. They also want to know about gold, you know. And these are things that I'm not that proficient in, you know. I want to hear from experts in those fields. So it's really been a great, great event.

Keith Weinhold 49:48

You kind of crowdsource the need. You listen to what your audience was asking about, and then you delivered it for them. Limitless expo.com, use the discount code KEN10 to get. Get a discount. Ken McElroy, it's been great chatting about the direction of rents and prices in the both single family space and apartment space. It's been great having you back on the show.

Ken McElroy 50:09

Yeah, for sure. Keith, always great. Man. Good seeing you.

Keith Weinhold 50:18

Yeah. Ken, decidedly bullish on buying real estate, even calling it a great time to buy. He basically believes that because buyers have more power than they did three and four years ago, and they have more options, an emphatic prediction that the home ownership rate will fall below 60% there is profundity here. I mean, the census figures on this go back to the 1960s and the lowest it's fallen in all that time was 63% by the way, homeownership peaked in 2004 at 69% apartment values have crashed about 30% and It's probably going to get worse. So the worst isn't over, but likely will be by about the end of this year. So in Ken's opinion, most of the worst is over. I'm reading in between the lines there on that one. Hey, I hope you've been enjoying this show lately. Next week, we're going to change things up somewhat here. Recently, we've had rather prominent guests on the show, like the father of Reaganomics, David Stockman, then Russell gray last week, this week, the owner of 10,000 running units, Ken McElroy. And you know their perspectives and experience and influence, they are terrific. And I trust that you've learned from them. Next week, we'll have two GRE listeners here on the show, regular listeners, perhaps people more like you, because you can probably relate well to their stories. Until then, I'm your host. Keith Weinhold, don't quit your Daydream.

Speaker 3 51:59

Keith Weinhold 52:22

You know, whenever you want the best written real estate and finance info, oh, geez, today's experience limits your free articles access, and it's got paywalls and pop ups and push notifications and cookies disclaimers. It's not so great. So then it's vital to place nice, clean, free content into your hands that adds no hype value to your life. That's why this is the golden age of quality newsletters. And I write every word of ours myself. It's got a dash of humor, and it's to the point, because even the word abbreviation is too long. My letter usually takes less than three minutes to read, and when you start the letter, you also get my one hour fast real estate video. Course, it's all completely free. It's called the Don't quit your Daydream letter. It wires your mind for wealth, and it couldn't be easier for you to get it right now. Just text gre 266, 866, while it's on your mind, take a moment to do it right now. Text GRE TO 66866

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Direct download: GREepisode559_.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 4:00am EST

Mon, 16 June 2025

Founder of the Raising Capitalists Foundation and previous co-host of The Real Estate Guys Radio show, Russell Gray, joins Keith to discuss the historical and current devaluation of the U.S. dollar, its impact on investors, and the broader economic implications.

Gray highlights how the significant increase in interest rates has trapped equity in properties and affected development. He explains the shift from gold-backed currency to paper money, the role of the Federal Reserve, and the impact of the Bretton Woods Agreement.

Gray emphasizes the importance of understanding macroeconomic trends and advocates for Main Street capitalism to decentralize power and promote productivity. He also criticizes the idea of housing as a human right, arguing it leads to inflation and shortages.

Resources:

Connect with Russell Gray to learn more about his "Raising Capitalists" project and his plans for a new show. Follow up with Russell Gray to get a copy of the Beardsley Rummel speech transcript from 1946.

follow@russellgray.com

Show Notes:

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557: Are Rich People Greedy and Poor People Lazy?, Amenities You Must Give Tenants Today

Complete episode transcript:

Automatically Transcribed With Otter.ai

Keith Weinhold 0:01

Welcome to GRE. I'm your host. Keith Weinhold, what's the real backstory on why we have this thing called the dollar? Why it keeps getting debased? What you can do about it and when the dollar will die? It's a lesson in monetary history. And our distinguished guest is a familiar voice that you haven't heard in a while. Today on get rich education.

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Russell Gray 1:54

You're listening to the show that has created more financial freedom than nearly any show in the world. This is get rich education.

Keith Weinhold 2:10

Welcome to GRE from St John's Newfoundland to St Augustine, Florida and across 188 nations worldwide. I'm Keith weinholden. You are inside get rich education. It's 2025. The real estate market is changing. We'll get into that in future. Weeks today. Over the past 100 years plus, we've gone from sound money to Monopoly money, and we're talking about America's currency collapse. What comes next and how it affects you as both an investor and a citizen.

I'd like to welcome in longtime friend of the show and someone that I've personally learned from over the years, because he's a brilliant teacher, real estate investors probably haven't heard his voice as much lately, because until last year, he had been the co host of the terrific real estate guys radio show for nearly 20 years. Before we're done today, you'll learn more about what he's doing now, as he runs the Main Street capitalist platform and is also founder of the raising capitalists foundation. Hey, it's been a few years. Welcome back to GRE Russell Gray.

Russell Gray 3:19

yeah, it's fun. I actually think it's been maybe 10 years when I think about it, I remember I was at a little resort in Mexico recording with you, I think in the gym. It was just audio back then, no video.

Keith Weinhold 3:24

Yeah, I remember we're trying to get the audio right. Then I think you've been here more recently than 10 years ago. But yeah, now there's this video component. I actually have to sit up straight and comb my hair. It's ridiculous. Well, Russ, you're also a buff of monetary history. And before we discuss that, talk about the state of the real estate market today, just briefly, from your vantage point.

Russell Gray 1 3:55

I think the big story, and I'm probably not telling anybody anything they don't know, but the interest rate hike cycle that we went through this last round was quite a bit more substantial, I think, than a lot of people really appreciated, you know. And I started talking about that many years ago, because when you hit the zero bound and you have 6,7,8, years of interest rates below half a point, the change when they started that interest rate cycle from point two, 525 basis points all the way up to five and a quarter? That's a 20x move. And people might say, well, oh, you know, I go back to what Paul Volcker did way back in the day, when he took interest rates from eight or nine to 18. That was only a little bit more than double. Double is a far cry from 20x so we've never seen anything like that. Part of the fallout of that, as you know, is a lot of people wisely, and I was on the front end of cheerleading This is go get those loans refinanced and lock in that cheap money for as long as possible, because a loan will actually become an asset. The problem is, when you do that, you're kind of married to that property. Now it's not quite as bad. As being upside down in a property and you can't get out of it, but it's really hard to walk away from a two or 3% loan in a Six 7% market, because you really can't take your same payment and end up getting more house. And so that equity is kind of a little bit trapped, and that creates some opportunities, but I think that's been the big story, and then kind of the byproduct of the story. Second tier of the story was the impact it had on development, because it made it a lot harder for developers to develop, because their cost of funds and everything in that supply chain, food chain, you marry that to the 2020, COVID Supply Chain lockdown and that disruption, which, you know, you don't shut an economy down and just flick a switch and have it come back on. And so there's all of that. And then the third thing is just this tremendous uncertainty everybody has, because we just went from one extreme to another. And I think people, you know, they don't want to, like, rock the boat, they're going to kind of stay status quo for a little bit, whether they're businesses, whether they're homeowners, whether they're anybody out there that's thinking about moving them, unless life forces you to do it, you're going to try to stay status quo until things calm down. And I don't know how close we are to things calming down.

Keith Weinhold 6:13

One word I use is normalized. Both the 30 year fixed rate mortgage and the Fed funds rate are pretty close to their long term historic average. It just doesn't feel that way, because it was that rate of increase in 2022 that caught a lot of people off guard, like you touched on Well, Russ, now that we've talked about the present day, let's go back in time, and then we'll slowly bring things up to the present day. The dollar is troubled. It's worth perhaps 3% of what it was 100 years ago, but it's still around since it was established in the Coinage Act of 1792 and it's still the world reserve currency. In fact, only three currencies have survived longer than the dollar, the British pound, the Japanese yen and the Swiss franc. So talk to us about this really relentless debasement of the dollar over time, including the creation of the Fed and the Bretton Woods Agreement and all that.

Russell Gray 7:09

That's a big story, as you know, and I always like to try to break it down a little bit. One of my specialties I'd like to believe, is I speak macro and I speak Main Street. And so when I try to break macroeconomics down, I start out with, why do I even care? I mean, if I'm a main street investor, why do I even care? In 2008 as you know, is a wipeout for me. Why? Because I didn't think anything had happened in the macro I didn't think Wall Street bond market. I didn't think that affected me. One thing I really cared about was interest rates. And I had a cursory interest in the bond market. We just try to figure out where interest rates were going. But for the most part, I thought, as a main street real estate investor, I was 100% insulated. I couldn't have been more wrong, because it really does matter, because the value of the dollar, in other words, the purchasing power of the dollar, and usually you refer to that as inflation, right? If inflation is there, the dollar is losing its purchasing power, and so the higher the inflation rate, the faster you're losing that purchasing power. And you might say, well, maybe that matters to me. Maybe it does. But the people who make the money available to the mortgage community, right to the real estate community to borrow that comes out of the bond market. And so when people go to buy a bond, which is an IOU, they're going to get paid back in the currency that they lent in, in this case, dollars. And if they know, if they're making a long term investment in a long term bond, and they're going to get paid back in dollars, they're going to be worth a whole lot less when they get them back. One of the things they're going to want is compensation for that time risk, and that's called higher interest rates. Okay, so now, if you're a main street investor, and higher interest rates impact you, now you understand why you want to pay attention. Okay, so let's just start with that. And so once you understand that the currency is a derivative of money, and money used to be you mentioned the Coinage Act Keith money, which is gold, used to be synonymous with the dollar. The dollar was only a unit of measure of gold, 1/20 of an ounce. It was a unit of measure. So it's like, the way I teach people is, like, if you had a gallon of milk and you traded, I'm a farmer, and I had a lot of milk, and so everybody decided they were going to use gallons of milk as their currency. Hey, where there's a lot of gallons of milk. He's got a big refrigerator. We'll just trade gallons of milk. Hey, Keith, I really like your beef. I you know, will you sell me some, a side of beef, and I'll give you, you know, 100 gallons of milk, you know, like, Oh, that's great. Well, I can't drink all this milk, so I'm going to leave the milk on deposit at the dairy, and then later on, when I decide I want a suit of clothes, I'll say, well, that's 10 gallons of milk. So I'll give the guy 10 gallons of milk. So I just give him a coupon, a claim, a piece of paper for that gallon of milk, or 20 gallons of milk, and he can go to the dairy and pick it up, right? And so that's kind of the way the monetary system evolved, except it wasn't milk, it was gold. So now you got the dollar. Well, after a while, nobody's going to get the milk. They don't care about the milk. And so now. Now, instead of just saying, I'll give you a gallon of milk, you just say, well, I'll give you a gallon. And somebody says, Okay, that's great. I'll take a gallon. They never opened the jug up. They never realized the jug is empty. They're just trading these empty jugs that used to have milk in them. Well, that's what the paper dollar is today. It went from being a gold certificate payable to bearer on demand, a certain amount of gold, a $20 gold certificate, what looks exactly like a $20 FEDERAL RESERVE NOTE. Today they look exactly the same, except one says FEDERAL RESERVE NOTE, which is an IOU backed by nothing, and the other one said gold certificate, which was payable to bearer on demand, real money. So my point is, is he got money which is a derivative of the productivity, the beef, the soot, the milk, whatever, right? That's the real capital. The real capital is the goods and services we all want. Money is where we store the value of whatever it is we created until we want to trade it for something somebody else created later. And it used to be money and currency were one in the same, but now we've separated that. So now all we do is trade empty gallons, which are empty pieces of paper, and that's currency. So those are derivatives, and the last derivative of that chain is credit. And you had Richard Duncan on your show more than once, and he is famous for kind of having this term. We don't normally have capitalism. We have creditism, right? Everything is credit. Everything is claims on wealth, but it's not real wealth, and it's just when we look at what's going on with our current administration and the drive to become a productive rather than a financialized society, again, as part of this uncertainty that everybody has. Because this is not just a subtle little adjustment on the same course. This is like, No, we're we're going down a completely different path. But fundamentally, your system operates on this currency that is flowing through it, like the blood flowing through your body. And if the blood is bad, your body's sick. And right now, our currency is bad, and so it creates problems, not just for us, but all around the world. And now we're exacerbating that. And I'm not saying it's bad. In fact, I think it's actually it's actually good, but change is what it is, right? I mean, it can be really good to go to the gym and work out before we started recording, you talked about your commitment to fitness, and that if you stop working out, you get unfit, and it's hard to start up again. Well, we've allowed our economy to get very unfit. Now we're trying to get fit again, and it's going to be painful. We're going to be sore, but if we stick with it, I think we can actually kind of save this thing. So I don't know what that's going to mean for the dollar ultimately, or if we end up going to something else, but right now, to your point, the dollar is definitely the big dog still, but I think it's probably even more under attack today than it's ever been, and so it's just something I think every Main Street investor needs to pay attention to.

Keith Weinhold 12:46

And it was really that 1913 creation of the Fed, where the Fed's mandates really didn't begin to take effect until 1914 that accelerated this slide in the dollar. Prior to that, it was really just periods of war, like, for example, the Civil War, where we had inflation rise, but then after wars abated, the dollar's strength returned, but that ceased to happen last century.

Russell Gray 13:11

I think there's a much bigger story there. So when we founded the country, we established legal money in the Coinage Act of 1792 we got gold and silver and a specific unit of measure of gold, a specific unit, measure of silver was $1 and that's what money was constitutionally. Alexander Hamilton advocated for the first central bank and got it, but it was issued by Charter, which meant that it was operated by the permission of the Congress. It wasn't institutionalized. It wasn't embedded in the Constitution. It was just something that was granted, like a license. You have a charter to be able to run a bank. When that initial charter came up for renewal, Congress goes, now we're not going to renew it. Well, of course, that made the bankers really upset, because bankers have a pretty good gig, right? They get to just loan people money. They don't have to do any real work, and then they make money on just kind of arbitraging, you know, other people's money. Savers put their money in, and they borrowed the money out, and then they with fractional reserve, they're able to magnify that. So it's, it's kind of a cool gig. And so what happened? Then he had the first central bank, so then they got the second central bank, and the second central bank was also issued by charter this time when it came up for renewal, Congress goes, Yeah, let's renew it, right? Because the bankers knew we got to go buy a few congressmen if we want to keep this thing going. But President Andrew Jackson said, No, not going to happen. And it was a big battle. Is a famous quote of him just calling these bankers a brood of vipers. And I'm going to put you down. And God help me, I will, right? I mean, it was like intense fact, I do believe he got shot at one point. I think he died from lead poisoning, because he never got the bullet out. So, you know, when you go to up against the bankers, it's not pretty, but he succeeded. He was the last president that paid off all the debt, balanced budget, paid off all the debt, and we got kind of back on sound money. Well, then a little while later, said, Okay, we're going to need, like, something major, and this would. I should put on. I got my, this is my hat, right now, I'll kind of put it on. This is my, my tin foil hat. Okay? And so I put this on when I kind of go down the rabbit trail a little bit. No, I'm not saying this is what happened, but it wouldn't surprise me, right? Because I know that war is profitable, and so sometimes, you know, your comment was, hey, there's the bank, and then there was, you know, the war, or there's the war, then there's a bank, which comes first the chicken or the egg. I think there's an article where Henry Ford and Thomas Edison went to Congress. I think it was December. The article was published New York Tribune, December 4. I think 1921 you can look it up, New York Tribune, front page article

Keith Weinhold 15:38

fo those of you in the audio only. Russ started donning a tin foil looking hat here about one minute ago.

Russell Gray 15:45

I did, yeah, so I put it on. Just so fair warning. You know, I may go a little conspiratorial, but the reason I do that is I just, I think we've seen enough, just in current, modern history and politics, in the age of AI and software and freedom of speech and new media, there's a lot of weird stuff going on out there, but a lot of stuff that we thought was really weird a little while ago has turned out to be more true than we thought. When you look back in history, and you kind of read the official narrative and you wonder, you kind of read between the lines. You go, oh, maybe some stuff went on here. So anyway, the allegation that Ford made, smart guy, Thomas Edison, smart guy. And they go to Congress, and they go, Hey, we need to get the gold out of the banker's hands, because gold is money, and we need money not to revolve around gold, because the bankers control gold. They control the money, and they make profits, his words, not mine, by starting wars, because he was very upset about World War One, which happened. We got involved right after Fed gets formed in 1913 World War One starts in 1914 the United States sits off in the background and sells everybody, everything. It collects a bunch of gold, and then enters at the end and ends it all. And that big influx created the roaring 20s, as we all know, which ended big boom to big bust. And that cycle, which then a crisis that created, potentially a argument for why the government should have more control, right? So you kind of go down this path. So we ended up in 1865 with President Lincoln suppressing states rights and eventually creating an unconstitutional income tax and then creating an unconstitutional currency. That's what Abraham Lincoln did. And then on the back end of that, you know, it didn't end well for him, and I don't know why, but all I know is that we had a financial crisis in 1907 and the solution to that was the Aldrich plan, which was basically a monopoly on money. It's called a money trust. And Charles Lindbergh, SR was railing against it, as were many people at the time, going, No, this is terrible. So they renamed the Aldrich plan the Federal Reserve Act. And instead of going for a bank charter, they went for a constitutional amendment, and they got it in the 16th Amendment, and that's where we got the IRS. That's where we got the income tax, which was only supposed to be 7% only affect like the top one or 2% of earners, right? And that's where we got, you know, the Federal Reserve. That's where all that was born. Since that happened, to your point, the dollar has been on with a slight little rise up in the 20s, which, you know, there's a whole thing about whether that caused the crash or not. But at the end of the day, if you go look at St Louis Fed, which you go look at all the time, and you just look at the long term trend of the dollar, it's terrible. And the barometer, that's gold, right? $20 of gold in 1913 and 1933 and then 42 in 1971 or two, whatever it was, three, and then eventually as high as 850 but at the turn of the century, this century, it was $250 so at $2,500 it would have lost 90% in the 21st Century. The dollars lost 90% in the 21st Century, just to 2500 that's profound to go. That's right, it already lost more than 90% from $20 to 250 so it lost 90% and then 90% of the 10% that was left. And that's where we're at. We're worse than that. Today, no currency, as far as I understand, I've been told this. Haven't done the homework, but it's my understanding, no currency in the history of the world has ever survived that kind of debasement. So I think a lot of people who are watching are like, okay, it's not a matter of if, it's a matter of when. And then the big question is, is when that when comes? What does the transition look like? What rises in its place? And then you look at things like a central bank digital currency, which is not like Bitcoin, it's not a crypto, it's a centrally controlled currency run by the central bank. If we get that, I would argue that's not good for privacy and security. Could be Bitcoin would be better. I would argue, could go back to gold backing, which I would say is better than what we have, or we could get something nobody's even thought of. I don't know. We don't know, but I do think we're at the end of the life cycle. Historically, all things being equal. And I think all the indication with a big run up of gold, gold is screaming something's broken. It's just screaming it right now, not just because the price is up, but who's buying it. It's just central banks.

Keith Weinhold 20:12

Central banks are doing most of the buying, right? It's not individual investors going to a coin shop. So that's really screaming, telling you that people are concerned. People are losing their faith in giving loans to the United States for sure. And Russ, as we talk about gold, and it's important link to the dollar over time, you mentioned how they wanted it, to get it out of the bank's hands for a while. Of course, there was also a period of time where it was illegal for Americans to own gold. And then we had this Bretton Woods Agreement, which was really important as well, where we ended up violating promises that had to do with gold again. So can you speak to us some more about that? Because a lot of people just don't understand what happened at Bretton Woods.

Russell Gray 20:56

What happened is we had the big crash in 1929 and the net result of that was, in 1933 we got executive order 6102 In fact, I have a picture of it framed, and that was in the wake of that in 1933 and so what Franklin Delano Roosevelt did in signing that document, which was empowered by a previous act of Congress, basically let him confiscate all The money. It'd be like right now if, right now, you know, President Trump signed an executive order and said, You have to take all your cash, every all the cash that you have out of your wallet. You have to send it all, take it into the bank, and they're going to give you a Chuck E Cheese token, right? And if you don't do it, if you do it, it's a $500,000 fine in 10 years in prison. Right? Back then it was a $10,000 fine, which was twice the price of the average Home huge fine, plus jail time. That's how severe it was, okay? So they confiscated all the money. That happened in 33 okay? Now we go off to war, and we enter the war late again. And so we have the big manufacturing operation. We're selling munitions and all kinds of supplies to everybody, all over the world, right? And we're just raking the gold and 20,000 tons of gold. We got all the gold. We got the biggest army now, we got the biggest bomb, we got the biggest economy. We got the strongest balance sheet. Well, I mean, you know, we went into debt for the war, but, I mean, we had a lot of gold. So now everybody else is decimated. We're the big dog. Everybody knows we're the big dog. Nine states shows up in New Hampshire Bretton Woods, and they have this big meeting with the world, and they say, Hey guys, new sheriff in town. Britain used to be the world's reserve currency, but today we're going to be the world's reserve currency. And so this was the new setup. But it's okay. It's okay because our dollar is as good as gold. It's backed by gold, and so anytime you want foreign nations, you can just bring your dollars to us and we'll give you the gold, no problem. And everyone's like, okay, great. What are you going to say? Right? You got the big bomb, you got the big army. Everybody needs you for everything to live like you're not going to say no. So they said, Yes, of course, the United States immediately. I've got a speech that a guy named Beardsley Rummel did. Have you ever heard me talk about this before? Keith, No, I've never heard about this. So Beardsley Rummel was the New York Fed chair when all this was happening. And so he gave a speech to the American Bar Association in 1945 and I got a transcript of it, a PDF transcript of it from 1946 and basically he goes, Look, income taxes are obsolete. We don't need income tax anymore because we can print money, because we're off the gold standard and we have no accountability. We just admitted it, just totally admitted it, and said the only reason we have income tax is to manipulate behavior, is to redistribute wealth, is to force people to do what we want them to do, punish things and reward others, right? Just set it plain language. I have a transcript of the speech. You can get a copy of you send an email to Rummel R U, M, L@mainstreetcapitalist.com I'll get it to you. So it's really, really interesting. So he admitted it. So we went along in the 40s and the 50s, and, you know, we had the only big manufacturing you know, because everybody else is still recovering from the war. Everything been bombed to smithereens, and we're spending money and doing all kinds of stuff. And having the 50s, it was great, right, right up until the mid 60s. So the mid 60s, it's like, Okay, we got a problem. And Charles de Gaulle, who was the president of France at the time, went to a meeting. And there's a YouTube video, but you can see it, he basically told the world, hey, I don't think the United States is doing a good job managing this world's reserve currency. I don't think they've got the gold. I think they printed too much money. I think that we should start to go redeem our dollars and get the gold. That was pretty forward thinking. And he created a run on the bank. And at the same time, we passed the Coinage Act in 1965 and took all the silver out of the people's money. So we took the gold in 33 and then we took the silver in 65 right? Because we got Vietnam and the Great Society, welfare, all these things were going on in the 60s. We're just going broke. Meanwhile, our gold supply went from 20,000 tons down to eight and Richard. Nixon is like, whoa, time out. Like, this is bad. And so we had inflation in 1970 August 15, 1971 year before August 15, 1971 1970 Nixon writes an executive order and freezes all prices and all wages. It became illegal by presidential edict for a private business to give their employee a raise or to raise their prices to the customers.

Keith Weinhold 25:30

It's almost if that could happen price in theUnited States of America, right?

Russell Gray 25:36

And inflation was 4.4% and it was a national emergency like today. I mean, you know, a few years ago, like three or four years ago, we if we could get it down 4.4% it'd be Holly. I'd be like a celebration. That was bad. And so that's what happened. So a year later, that didn't work. It was a 90 day thing. It was a disaster. And so in a year later, August 15, 1971 Nixon came on live TV after Gunsmoke. I think it was, and I was old enough I'm watching TV on a Sunday night I watched it. Wow. So I live, that's how old I am. So it's a lot of this history, not the Bretton Woods stuff, but from like 1960 2,3,4, forward. I remember I was there.

Keith Weinhold 26:13

Yeah, that you remember the whole Nixon address on television. We should say it for the listener that doesn't know. Basically the announcement Nixon made, he said, was a temporary measure, is that foreign nations can no longer redeem their dollars for gold. He broke the promise that was made at Bretton Woods in about 1945

Russell Gray 26:32

Yeah. And then gold went from $42 up to 850 and a whole series of events that have led to where we're at today were put in place to cover up the fact that the dollar was failing. We had climate emergency. We were headed towards the next global Ice Age. We had an existential threat in two different diseases that hit one right after the other. First one was the h1 n1 flu, swine flu, and then the next thing was AIDS. And so we had existential pandemic, two of them. We also had a oil shortage crisis. We were going to run out of fossil fuel by the year 2000 we had to do all kinds of very public, visible, visceral things that we would all see. You could only buy gas odd even days, like, if your license plate ended in an odd number, you could go on these days, and if it ended on an even number, you could go on the other days. And so we had that. We lowered our national speed limit down to 55 miles an hour. We created the EPA and all these different agencies under Jimmy Carter to try to regulate and manage all of this crisis. Prior to that, Nixon sent Kissinger over to China, and we opened up trade relations. And we'd been in Vietnam to protect the world from communism because it was so horrible. And then in the wake of that, we go over to Communist China, Chairman Mao and open up trade relations. Why we needed access to their cheap labor to suck up all the inflation. And we went over to the Saudis, and we cut the petro dollar deal. Why? Because we needed the float. We needed some place for all these excess dollars that we had created to get sucked up. And so they got sucked up in trading the largest commodity in the world, energy. And the deal was, hey, Saudis, here's the deal. You like your kingdom? Well, we got the big bomb. We got the big army. You're going to rule the roost in the in the Middle East, and we'll protect you. All you got to do is make sure you sell all your oil in dollars and dollars only. And they're like, Well, what if we're selling oil to China, or what if we're selling oil to Japan? Can they pay in yen? Nope, they got to sell yen. Buy dollars. Well, what do we do with all these dollars? Buy our treasuries. Okay, so what if I got this? Yeah, and so that was the petrodollar system. And the world looked at everything went on, and the world is like, Hmm, the United States coming back to Europe, and Charles de Gaulle, they're like, the United States is not handling this whole dollar thing real well. We need an alternative. What if all of us independent nations in Europe got together and created a common currency? We don't want to be like one country, like the United States, but we want to be like an economic union. So let's create a current let's call it the euro. And they started that process in the 70s, but they didn't get it done till 99 and so they get it done in 99 as soon as they get it done, this guy named Saddam Hussein goes, Hey, I'm now the big dog here. I got the fourth largest army in the world. I'm here in, you know, big oil producing nation. Let's trade in the euro. Let's get off the dollar. Let's do oil in the euro. And he's gone. I'm not sure I should put my hat back on. I'm not sure, but somehow we went into Afghanistan and took a hard left and took this guy out.

Keith Weinhold 29:44

Some credence to this. Yes, yeah, so. But with that said,

Russell Gray 29:47

you know, we ended up with the Euro taking about 20% of the global trade market from the United States, which is about where it sits today. And the United States used to be up over 80% and now we're down below 60% still. The Big Dog by triple and the euro is not in a position to supplant the US, but I think China, whose claim to fame is looking at other people's technology and models and copying it, looked at what the United States did to become the dominant economic force, and I think they've systematically been copying it. I wrote a report on this way back in 2013 when I started really paying attention to it and began to chronicle all the things that they were doing, this big D dollarization movement that I think still has legs. It's the BRICS movement. It's all the central banks buying gold. It's the bilateral trade agreements where people are doing business outside the dollar. There's been not just that, but also putting together the infrastructure, right? The Asian Infrastructure Bank is an alternative to the IMF looking, if you have you read Confessions of an economic hitman. No. Okay, so this is a guy that used to work in the government, I think, CIA or something, and he would go down and he'd cut deals with leaders of countries to get them to borrow from the United States to put in key infrastructure so they could trade with the US. And then, of course, if they defaulted, then the US owned that in the infrastructure. You can look it up. His name is Perkins, right. Look it up confessions of economic hit now, but you see China doing the same thing. China's got their Belt and Road Initiative. And you go through, and if you want to trade with China on that route, you have traded, you're gonna have to have infrastructure. You can eat ports. You're gonna need terminals for distribution. But you, Oh, you don't have the money. We'll loan it to you, and we'll loan it to you and you want. Now we're creating demand for you want, and we also are enslaving borrower servant to the lender. We're beginning to enslave these other nations under the guise of helping them by financing their growth so they can do business with us. It's the same thing the United States did and Shanghai Gold Exchange, as opposed to the London Bullion exchange. So all of the key pieces of infrastructure that were put in place to facilitate Western hegemony in the financial markets the Chinese have been systematically putting in place with bricks, and so there's a reason we're in this big trade war right now. We recognize that they had started to get in a position where they were actually a real threat, and we got to cut their legs out from underneath them before they get any stronger. Again, I should put my hat back on. Nobody's calling me up and telling me, I'm just reading between the lines. Sure,

Keith Weinhold 32:23

there certainly are more competitors to the dollar now. And can you imagine what rate of inflation that we would have had if we had not outsourced our labor and productivity over to a low wage place like China in the east? Russ and I have been talking about the long term debasement of the dollar and why. More on that when we come back, including what Russ is up to today. You're listening to get rich education. Our guest is Russell Gray. I'm your host, Keith Weinhold, the same place where I get my own mortgage loans is where you can get yours. Ridge lending group and MLS, 42056, they provided our listeners with more loans than anyone because they specialize in income properties. They help you build a long term plan for growing your real estate empire with leverage. Start your pre qual and even chat with President Chaley Ridge personally while it's on your mind, start at Ridge lendinggroup.com that's Ridge lendinggroup.com. You know what's crazy? Your bank is getting rich off of you. The average savings account pays less than 1% it's like laughable. Meanwhile, if your money isn't making at least 4% you're losing to inflation. That's why I started putting my own money into the FFI liquidity fund. It's super simple. Your cash can pull in up to 8% returns, and it compounds. It's not some high risk gamble like digital or AI stock trading. It's pretty low risk because they've got a 10 plus year track record of paying investors on time, in full every time. I mean, I wouldn't be talking about it if I wasn't invested myself. You can invest as little as 25k and you keep earning until you decide you want your money back. No weird lockups or anything like that. So if you're like me and tired of your liquid funds just sitting there doing nothing. Check it out. Text family, 266, 866, to learn about freedom family investments, liquidity fund again. Text family, 266, 866,

Garrett Sutton 34:36

hi. This is Rich Dad advisor, Garrett Sutton. You're listening to the always valuable. Get rich education with Keith Weinhold, don't quit your Daydream.

Keith Weinhold 34:52

Welcome back to get rich education. We're talking with the main street capitalists Russell gray about this long term debasement of the dollar. It's an. Inevitable. It's one of the things we actually can forecast with pretty good predictability that the dollar will continue to debase. It's one of the few almost guarantees that we have in investing. So we can think about how we want to play that Russ one thing I wonder about is, did we have to completely de peg the dollar from gold? Couldn't we have just diluted it where we could instead say, Well, hey, now, instead of just completely depegging the dollar from gold, we could say, well, now it takes 10 times as many dollars as it used to to redeem it for an ounce of gold. Did it make it more powerful that we just completely de pegged it 100%

Russell Gray 35:36

it would disempower the monopoly. Right? In other words, I think that the thing from the very beginning, was scripted to disconnect from the accountability of gold, which is what sound money advocates want. They want some form of independent Accountability. Gold is like an audit to a financial system. If you're the bankers and you're running the program, the last thing in the world you want is a gold standard, because it limits your ability to print money out of thin air and profit from that. So I don't think the people who are behind all of this are, in no way, shape or form, interested in doing anything that's going to limit their power or hold them accountable. They want just the opposite. I think if they could wave a magic wand and pick their solution to the problem, it would be central bank digital currency, which would give them ultimate control. Yeah. And it wouldn't surprise me if we maybe, perhaps, were on a path where some crises were going to converge, whether it's opportunistic, meaning that the crisis happened on its own, and quote Rahm Emanuel and whoever he was quoting, you know, never let a good crisis go to waste, and you're just opportunistic, or, you know, put the conspiracy theory hat on, and maybe these crises get created in order to facilitate the power grab. I don't know. It really doesn't matter what the motives are or how it happens at the end of the day, it's what happens. It happened in 33 it happened in 60. In 71 it's what happens. And so it's been a systematic de pegging of any form of accountability. I mean, we used to have a budget ceiling. We used to talk about now it's just like, it's routine. You blow right through it, right, right. There's you balance. I mean, when's the last time you even had a budget? Less, less, you know, much less anything that looked like a valid balanced budget amendment. So I think there's just no accountability other than the voting booth. And, you know, I think maybe you could make the argument that whether you like Trump or not, the public's apparent embrace of him, show you that the main street and have a lot of faith in Main Street. I think Main Street is like, you know what? This is broken. I don't know what's how to fix it, but somebody just needs to go in and just tear this thing down and figure out a new plant. Because I think if you anybody paying attention, knows that this perpetual debasement, which is kind of the theme of the show is it creates haves and have nots. Guys like you who understand how to use real estate to short the dollar, especially when you marry it to gold, which is one of my favorite strategies to double short the dollar, can really magnify the power of inflation to pull more wealth onto your balance sheet. Problem is the people who aren't on that side of the coin are on the other side of the coin, and so the poor get poorer and the rich get richer. Well, the first order of business in a system we can't control is help as many people be on the rich get richer. That's why we had the get rich show, right? Let's help other people get rich. Because if I'm the only rich guy in the room, all the guns are pointed at me, right? I wanted everybody as rich as possible. I think Trump and Kiyosaki wrote about that in their book. Why we want you to be rich, right? When everybody's prospering, it's it's better, it's safer, you have people to trade with and whatnot, but we have eviscerated the middle class because industry has had to go access cheap labor markets in order to compensate for this inflation. And you know, you talk about the Fed mandate, which is 2% inflation, price inflation, 2% so if you say something that costs $1 today, a year from now, is going to cost $1 too, you think, well, maybe that's not that bad. But here's the problem, the natural progression of Business and Technology is to lower the cost, right? So you have something cost $1 today, and because somebody's using AI and internet and automation and robots and all this technology, right? And the cost, they could really sell it for 80 cents. And so the Fed looks at and goes, Let's inflate to $1.02 that's not two cents of inflation. That's 22 cents of inflation. And so there's hidden inflation. The benefits of the gains in productivity don't show up in the CPI, but it's like deferred maintenance on an apartment building. You can make your cash flow look great if you're not setting anything aside for the inevitable day when that roof is going to go out and that parking lot is going to need to be repaved, right? And you don't know how far out you are until you get there and you're like, wow, I'm really short, and I think that we have been experiencing for decades. The theft of the benefit of our productivity gains, and we're not just a little bit out of position. We're way out of position. That's

Keith Weinhold 40:07

a great point. Like I had said earlier, imagine what the rate of inflation would be if we hadn't outsourced so much of our labor and productivity to low cost China. And then imagine what the rate of inflation would be as well, if you would factor in all of this increased productivity and efficiency, the natural tendencies of which are to make prices go lower as society gets more productive, but instead they've gone higher. So when you adjust for some of these factors, you just can't imagine what the true debased purchasing power of the dollar is. It's been happening for a long time. It's inevitable that it's going to continue to happen in the future. So this has been a great chat about the history and us understanding what the powers that be have done to debase our dollar. It's only at what rate we don't know. Russ, tell us more about what you're doing today. You're really out there more as a champion for Main Street in capitalism.

Russell Gray 41:04

I mean, 20 years with Robert and the real estate guys, and it was fantastic. I loved it. I went through a lot, obviously, in 2008 and that changed me a little bit. Took me from kind of being a blocking and tackling, here's how you do real estate, and to really understanding macro and going, you know, it doesn't matter. You can do like I did, and you build this big collection. Big collection of properties and you lose it all in a moment because you don't understand macro. So I said, Okay, I want to champion that cause. And so we did that. And then we saw in the 2012 JOBS Act, the opportunity for capital raisers to go mainstream and advertise for credit investors. And I wrote a report then called the new law breaks Wall Street monopoly. And I felt like that was going to be a huge opportunity, and we pioneered that. But then after my late wife died, and I had a chance to spend some time alone during COVID, and I thought, life is short. What do I really want to accomplish before I go? And then I began looking at what was going on in the world. I see now a couple of things that are both opportunities and challenges or causes to be championed. And one is the mega trend that I believe the world is going you know, some people call it a fourth turning whatever. I don't consider that kind of we have to fall off a cliff as Destiny type of thing to be like cast in stone. But what I do see is that people are sick and tired of monopolies. We're sick and tired of big tech, we're sick and tired of big media, we're sick and tired of big government. We're sick and tired of big corporations, we don't want it, and big banks, right? So you got the rise of Bitcoin, you got people trying to get out from underneath the Western hegemony, as we've been talking about decentralization of everything. Our country was founded on the concept of decentralization, and so people don't understand that, right? It used to be everything was centralized. All powers in the king. Real Estate meant royal property. That's what real estate it's not like real asset, like tangible it's royal estate. It's royal property. Everything belonged to the king, and you just got to work it like a serf. And then you got to keep 75% in your produce, and you sent 25% you sent 25% through all the landlords, the land barons, and all the people in the hierarchy that fed on running things for the king, but you didn't own anything. Our founder set that on, turn that upside down, and said, No, no, no, no, no, it's not the king that's sovereign. It's the individual. The individual is sovereign. It isn't the monarchy, it's the individual states. And so we're going to bring the government, small. The central government small has only got a couple of obligations, like protect the borders, facilitate interstate commerce, and let's just have one common currency so that we can do business together. Other than that, like, the state's just going to run the show. Of course, Lincoln kind of blew that up, and it's gotten a lot worse after FDR, so I feel like we're under this big decentralization movement, and I think Main Street capitalism is the manifestation of that. If you want to decentralize capitalism, the gig economy, if you want to be a guy like you, and you can run your whole business off your laptop with a microphone and a camera, you know, in today's day and age with technology, people have tasted the freedom of decentralization. So I think the rise of the entrepreneur, I think the ability to go build a real asset portfolio and get out of the casinos of Wall Street. I think right now, if we are successful in bringing back these huge amounts of investment, Trump's already announced like two and a half or $3 trillion of investment, people are complaining, oh, the world is selling us. Well, they're selling stocks and they're selling but they're putting the money actually into creating businesses here in the United States that's going to create that primary driver, as you well know, in real estate, that's going to create the secondary and tertiary businesses, and the properties they're going to use all kinds of Main Street opportunity are going to grow around that. I lived in Silicon Valley, when a company would get funded, it wasn't just a company that prospered, it was everything around that company, right? All these companies. I remember when Apple started. I remember when Hewlett Packard, it was big, but it got a lot bigger, right there. I watched all that happen in Silicon Valley. I think that's going to happen again. I think we're at the front end of that. And so that's super exciting. Wave. The second thing that is super important is this raising capitalist project. And the reason I'm doing it is because if we don't train our next generation in the principles of capitalism and the freedom that it how it decentralizes Their personal economy, and they get excited about Bitcoin, but that's not productive. I'm not putting it down. I'm just saying it's not productive. You have to be productive. You want to have a decentralized currency. Yes, you want to decentralize productivity. That's Main Street capitalism. If kids who never get a chance to be in the productive economy get to vote at 1819, 2021, 22 before they've ever earned a paycheck, before they have any idea, never run a business. Somebody tells them, hey, those guys that have all that money and property, they cheated. It's not fair. We need to take from them. We need to limit them, not thinking, Oh, well, if I do that, when I get to be there, that what I'm voting for is going to get on me. Right now, Keith, there are kids in ninth grade who are going to vote for your next president, right?

Keith Weinhold 45:56

And they think capitalism is evil. This is part of what you're doing with the raising capitalists project, helping younger people think differently. Russ, I have one last thing to ask you. This has to do with the capitalism that you're championing on your platforms now. And real estate, I continue to see sometimes I get comments on my YouTube channel, especially maybe it's more and more people increasingly saying, Hey, I think housing should be a human right. So talk to us about that. And maybe it's interesting, Russ, if I take the other side of it and play devil's advocate, people who think housing is a human right, they say something like, the idea is that housing, you know, it's a fundamental need, just like food and clean water and health care are without stable housing. It's incredibly hard for a person to access opportunities like work and education or health care or participate meaningfully in society at all. So government ought to provide housing for everybody. What are your thoughts there?

Russell Gray 46:54

Well, it's inherently inflationary, which is the root cause of the entire problem. So anytime you create consumption without production, you're going to have more consumers than producers, and so you're going to have more competition for those goods. The net, net truth of what happens in that scenario are shortages everywhere. Every civilization that's ever tried any form of system where people just get things for free because they need them, end up with shortages in poverty. It doesn't lift everybody. It ruins everything. I mean, that's not conjecture. That's history, and so that's just the way it works. And if you just were to land somebody on a desert island and you had an economy of one, they're going to learn really quick the basic principles of capitalism, which is production always precedes consumption, always 100% of the time, right? If you're there on that desert island and you don't hunt fish or gather, you don't eat, right? You don't get it because, oh, it's a human right to have food. Nope, it's a human right to have the right to go get food. Otherwise, you're incarcerated, you have to have the freedom of movement to go do something to provide for yourself, but you cannot allow people to consume without production. So everybody has to produce. And you know, if you go back to the Plymouth Rock experiment, if you're familiar with that at all, yeah, yeah. So you know, just for anybody who doesn't know, when the Pilgrims came over here in the 1600s William Bradford was governor, and they tried it. They said, Hey, we're here. Let's Stick Together All for one and one for all. Here's the land. Everybody get up every day and work. Everybody works, and everybody eats. They starved. And so he goes, Okay, guys, new plan. All right, you wine holds. See this little plot of land, that's yours. You work it. You can eat whatever you produce. Over there, you grace. You're going to do yours and Johnson's, you're going to do yours, right? Well, what happened is now everybody got up and worked, and they created more than enough for their own family, and they had an abundance. And the abundance was created out of their hunger. When they went to serve their own needs, they created abundance forever others. That's the premise of capitalism. It's not the perfect system. There is no perfect system. We live in a world where human beings have to work before they get to eat. When I say eat, it could be having a roof over their head. It could be having clothes. It could be going on vacation. It could be having a nice car. It could be getting health care. It doesn't matter what it is, whatever it is you need. You have the right, or should have, the right, in a free system to go earn that by being productive, but the minute somebody comes and says, Oh, you worked, and I'm going to take what you produced and give it to somebody else who didn't, that's patently unfair, but economically, it's disastrous, because it incentivizes people not to work, which creates less production, more consumption. I have another analogy with sandwich makers, but you can imagine that if you got a group if you got a group of people making sandwiches, one guy starts creating coupons for sandwiches. Well then if somebody says, Okay, well now we got 19 people providing for 20. That's okay, but then all the guys making sandwiches. Why making sandwiches? I'm gonna get the coupon business pretty soon. You got 18 guys doing coupons, only two making sandwiches. Not. Have sandwiches to go around all the sandwiches cost tons of coupons because we got way more financialization than productivity, right? That's the American economy. We have to fix that. We can't have people making money by just trading on other people's productivity. We have to have people actually being productive. This is what I believe the administration is trying to do, rebuild the middle class, rebuild that manufacturing base, make us a truly productive economy, and then you don't have to worry about these things, right? We're going to create abundance. And if you don't have the inflation is which is coming from printing money out of thin air and giving to people who don't produce, then housing, all sudden, becomes affordable. It's not a problem. Health care becomes affordable. Everything becomes affordable because you create abundance, because everybody's producing the system is fundamentally broken. Now we have to learn how to profit in it in its current state, which is what you teach people how to do. We also have to realize that it's not sustainable. We're on an unsustainable path, and we're probably nearing that event horizon, the path of no return, where the system is going to break. And the question is, is, how are you going to be prepared for it when it happens? Number two, are you going to be wise enough to advocate when you get a chance to cast a vote or make your voice heard for something that's actually going to create prosperity and freedom versus something that's going to create scarcity and oppression? And that's the fundamental thing that we have to master as a society. We got to get to our youth, because they're the biggest demographic that can blow the thing up, and they're the ones that have been being indoctrinated the worst.

Keith Weinhold 51:29

Yes, Fed Chair Jerome Powell himself said that we live in a economic system today that is unsustainable. Yes, the collectivism we touched on quickly descends into the tyranny of the majority. And in my experience, historically, the success of public housing projects has been or to mixed at best, residents often don't respect the property when they don't have an equity stake in it or even a security deposit tied up in it, and blight and high crime rates have often followed with these public housing projects. When you go down that path of making housing as a human right, like you said earlier, you have a right to go procure housing for yourself, just not to ask others to pay for it for you. Well, Russ, this has been great. It's good to have your voice back on the show. Here again, here on a real estate show. If people want to connect with you, continue to see what you've been up to and the good projects that you're working on, promoting the virtues of capitalism. What's the best way for them to do that?

Russell Gray 52:31

I think just send an email to follow at Russell Gray, R, U, S, S, E, L, L, G, R, A, y.com, let you know where I am on social media. I'll let you know when I put out new content. I'll let you know when I'm a guest on somebody somebody's show and I'm on the cusp of getting my own show finally launched. I've been doing a lot of planning to get that out, but I'm excited about it because I do think, like I said, The time is now, and I think the marketplace is ripe, and I do speak Main Street and macro, and I hope I can add a nuance to the conversation that will add value to people.

Keith Weinhold 53:00

Russ, it's been valuable as always. Thanks so much for coming back onto the show. Thanks, Keith.

Yeah, terrific, historic outline from Russ about the long term decline of the dollar. It's really a fresh reminder and motivator to keep being that savvy borrower. Of course, real estate investors have access to borrow giant sums of dollars and short the currency that lay people do not. In fact, lay people don't even understand that it's a viable strategy at all. Like he touched on, Russ has really been bringing an awareness about how decentralization is such a powerful force that reshapes society. In fact, he was talking about that the last time that I saw him in person a few months ago. Notably, he touched on Nixon era wage and price controls. Don't you find it interesting? Fascinating, really, how a few weeks ago, Trump told Walmart not to pass tariff induced price increases onto their customers. Well, that's a form of price control that we're seeing today to our point, when we had the father of Reaganomics, David Stockman here on the show, five weeks ago, tariffs are already government intervention into the free market, and then a president telling private companies how to set their prices, that is really strong government overreach. I mean, I can't believe that more people aren't talking about this. Maybe that's just because this cycle started with Walmart, and that's just doesn't happen to be a company that people feel sorry for. Hey, well, I look forward to meeting you in person in Miami in just four days, as I'll be a faculty member for when we kick off the terrific real estate guys Investor Summit and see and really getting to know you, because we're going to spend nine days together. Teaching, learning and having a great time on a cruise ship in the Caribbean. Until then, I'm your host. Keith Weinhold, don't quit your Daydream.

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Mon, 9 June 2025

Keith Weinhold plays a “financial superhero”, defending investors against the "greedy landlord" myth.

A Zillow survey reveals the secret sauce of rental success: budget, location, and bedroom count - with pets stealing the show as the ultimate tenant dealbreaker.

He exposes the dollar's sneaky inflation plot, showing how savvy investors can turn borrowing into a wealth-building adventure. Imagine homes that cost half their gold price from 100 years ago - mind-blowing!

Real estate investing isn't just a strategy - it's an epic journey of wealth creation!

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556: Could Housing Prices Fall Back to 2020 Levels? Featuring Christopher Whalen

Complete episode transcript:

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Keith Weinhold 0:01

Welcome to GRE I'm your host, Keith Weinhold. Are Real Estate Investors greedy by nature? Learn why? In a sense, today's homes are actually half price compared to 100 years ago. Then results from a huge tenant survey that reveals the amenities that you must give renters or else they will leave how media headlines can trick you and more today on get rich education.

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Corey Coates 1:56

You're listening to the show that has created more financial freedom than nearly any show in the world. This is get rich education.

Keith Weinhold 2:12

Welcome to GRE from Cape Hatteras, North Carolina to the Cape of Good Hope, South Africa and across 188 nations worldwide. I'm Keith Weinhold, and this is get rich education. 100 years ago, you could buy the average home with eight kilos of gold. Today, it only costs you four more on that later. But first, as a real estate investor, has a critic or a tenant ever insinuated some form of these two questions to you, either, is it ethical for you to own multiple homes, or even, are you greedy? Now, I doubt that you're going to be asked that question directly, but sometimes you can feel that that's the vibe that someone else is on. Well, there sure are greedy people in the world. You could be rich and greedy, or you could be poor and greedy. Even the definition of greed is an excessive and selfish desire for more wealth than one needs, often driven by a destructive motive. All right, that's the definition like you're willing to destroy other people in the pursuit of wealth that is rather different than acquiring wealth, which is usually done only when you first fulfill the needs of others. All right? Well, say that your critic makes $60,000 per year. Oh, well, then that means that they're in the top 1% of global income earners. I mean, sheesh, then they're like the Jeff Bezos of the developing world. So to help even things out, should your critic have to send half of their salary to Senegal or Mauritania or Burkina Faso if the critic's home has more than one bathroom in it, or they even own one car. Well, then they're fabulously wealthy by world standards. Then do they have to give it away to avoid being greedy? What if they ever worked overtime for extra money? Like is that evidence of certain greed? All that stuff is ridiculous, preposterous amounts don't create greed Spirit does. There is no implicit Machiavellian intent. If you have more wealth than average, where would you even draw the line? Like, once you hit seven rental properties? Oh, that's just fine, but eight of them is too many, or once you live in a home that costs 50% more than an area's median, then is that when it becomes greed? I mean, this doesn't make sense. Higher housing prices these past five years has to do with the lack of housing supply and with the. Abundance of dollar printing. It's those two things. The culprits aren't rental property owners. The culprits are burdensome development regulations and the Federal Reserve printing all the dollars, not your local landlord. Responsible landlords provide and maintain sound housing, and they do that for complete strangers, they're taking a lot of faith. Oh, so then could the tenant actually be the greedy one, if they both resent and expect that treatment from a stranger for free? I mean, real estate investors, hey, we take on risk, DEBT, TAXES, maintenance, insurance, market volatility, and we have the responsibility of building and maintaining a good credit score in most cases. I mean, you're the one that's truly invested in the property, not a tenant that can choose to move out in 30 or 60 days. Landlords are a bit like umpires. They're rarely appreciated, and they only get noticed when they do something wrong. I know I mentioned to you before that when I buy a property pretty soon, I casually mention to my tenant that, you know, each month, I just have to make them aware. Each month I make a big mortgage payment and I have to pay for property tax and insurance on this place. I mean, it's amazing to see how far that little mention goes with both timely rent collection and that they don't resent you as a landlord over time. See, tenants often don't know this because they've never owned property themselves, and actually, as you know, since I use property managers now, I don't make this mention to tenants anymore. See, to tenants often it can feel like they're just sort of renting air, and the rent payments they make to you are very visible to them. What's invisible to them are all of your expenses. You're the one as the investor that's contributing to communities. You are the good steward of a neighborhood's housing stock, and you provide homes for people who either can't or don't want to buy the myth of the evil landlord. It really just ignores realities. I mean, mom and pop investors own 72% of single family rental homes, and the typical landlord owns fewer than three units. Many don't have 401 Ks. I mean, rental properties are their retirement plan. So most landlords, real estate investors, they're not cigar chomping tycoons twirling mustaches atop piles of gold like Scrooge McDuck. They're regular people. So perspectives like this that can really help you ward off both critics and unaware tenants. And you know what odds are, if they had the opportunity, they would often do the same thing at a time when pensions are rare and inflation runs rampant. Who could blame anyone for seeking assets that grow in value and generate income. Here's what you need to know. Everyone plays the financial game in the context of their own economy. You Your critic and your tenant, your awareness and your mindset from listening to the show is merely more broad than others. If everyone understood that being wealthy is actually a choice like you do, we would all be better off. So the bottom line here is that real estate investors are not villains. They're just people trying to build a financial life raft in a financial ocean that is full of icebergs. Rich people aren't necessarily greedy, just like poor people aren't necessarily lazy. Greed exists in somebody's spirit, not in the amount of your net worth or whatever your income level is,.

All right., Well, heading into the summer here, there are more tenant moves than any other season. Rental demand has stayed fairly strong, not super strong, just fairly strong, with rents only up about 2% annually. When you amalgamate single family rentals and apartments, the share of rentals with a concession is dropping because the rental market is fairly strong, and when renters find a place, a lot of them are staying put, like it's the last lifeboat off the Titanic. Of course, these are all phenomena on a national level, and each local area is different. I mean that right, there is something that I could say on nearly every episode with low affordability, the home ownership rate is down and renter numbers are up. Now. I told you a while ago that it would go down that home ownership rate, and in the latest quarter ended, that home ownership rate has dropped from 65.7 down to 65.1 Percent. And that might not sound like much, but homeownership down six tenths of 1% in just a quarter. That means that there are at least about 500,000 new renters in America. More renters means more rental demand, more occupancy, and it's crucial for you to know what those renters want so that you can best serve them again. You're not greedy. You're trying to serve them as well as you can now, Zillow has an arm. It's called the Zillow group population science. It's something I hadn't even heard of until recently. What Zillow did with this group is they surveyed 36,000 US renters of both single family rentals and apartments to find out what trends are and what renters want. And I read their entire lengthy report. I think it was 40 pages, so that you don't have to and what I did is I pulled out the most salient pieces to help you attract and retain tenants, and the top three criteria that renters really consider essential when deciding whether or not to rent your property are the first thing, and 95% said this is that it's got To be within their budget, second, at 85% preferred location. Hmm, does that mean near tacos and coffee shops? And then the third most important thing renters consider essential at 84% is the preferred bedroom count. After that, the Floor Plan and the layout that fits their preferences was most important. After that, it's the preferred number of bathrooms. So note that the preferred number of bedrooms, then, is more important in making the rental decision than the preferred number of bathrooms, although they both matter. And then after that, in order of decreasing importance, is broadband internet, allowing pets and having common amenities like a gym, a business center, a rooftop and a lounge and those things, those common amenities, they were substantially more important for apartment renters than for single family home renters, as you would imagine. And here's key, a separate survey question was asked, What is the main reason that you passed on a particular property and decided not to rent it. Number one easily was that the property prohibited pets. The second biggest choice had to do with pets as well. It was that the property restricted the pet breed or size. The reasons that renters passed on a particular property are so centered around pets. What do pets rule this housing market? Now, that's kind of how it seems. Now, another thing that this survey revealed is like, gosh, it also seems like the age for doing almost anything in America is up. The median renter is age 42 did you have any idea there? 42 probably older than you thought. And the older people are, generally, the quieter they are, and the less they move. The most common application fee paid is $50 that's what the survey found. Hey, maybe that's one thing that hasn't been slapped with tariffs. It's an online world. The typical renter surveyed reported taking only one in person tour. Everything else is swiping, scrolling or going deep on Google Street View. Basically what tenants do is they check out everything online, and then once they've chosen the place that they want to rent, they often make that decision right there online, and then basically that one in person visit is just them showing up to confirm that there aren't any red flags at that place, that they mostly know that they won. And this is good for you if you're self managing and you're showing the places yourselves. I mean, there are just fewer tire kickers than there were back in the day. I mean, hey, talk to your parents. 25 years ago, rental ads were like four lines in a newspaper, no photos at all, so tenants then they had to show up in person to see what a rental place even looked like. Let's look at the percent of renter households in America by household income, less than $50,000 57% of renters were in that range, 50 to 100k 29% and 100k or more, 15% as far as how much security deposit you need to give, 75% of renters said their first month's rent was required to Secure the rental, and only 25% said that they also had to fork over last month's rent to secure it. In a really strong rental market, you can more often ask for that both first and last month's rent to get in. 40% reported getting their entire security deposit back at the end of the rental. Hmm, I guess the. Others pay for that mysterious carpet stain. Most pay additional fees on the rental, 58% and that's things like water, sewer, garbage, recycling or other utilities. And it even includes payment processing. There some landlords charge for that. And again, what I'm talking about here is single family rentals and apartments combined. All right, so more single family renters are going to pay for separate utilities on top of the rent. Of course, about half of American renters have renter's insurance. At 48% I suppose the others are living dangerously. A typical renter uses four websites or apps in their search and as I'm continuing on here with the results from this Zillow Rental survey of 36,000 renters, it also showed that the top three reasons that current renters say that they decide to stay long term are and this is big. I mean, this is about your retention rate. 72% stay long term because they say rental costs are a good deal, that's why they stay next most important is quiet neighbors. Yes, no drum kits or free range toddlers will help in apartments. One noisy neighbor can upset a lot of tenants, but a noisy neighbor that might not be a problem at all when people are dispersed in a single family rental and then the third most important thing in long term retention is 68% of renters stay in a unit because they can't afford to move elsewhere. Two thirds of tenants said their landlord or property manager notified them of a rent increase in the past two years, 37% of renters said they would be very or extremely likely to buy a home if mortgage rates fell. All right, that's about three in eight renters say that as far as the length of leases in America, 64% signed on for a one year lease, and 24% said their lease is longer than a year. So really, to summarize what you've learned here from that survey is that you need to know your audience, 42 year olds with pets and a strong preference for quiet neighbors. Keep your pricing competitive. Embrace tech. People want to apply and pay and do things online, and your tenants will stick around longer. You can either give a man a fish and feed him for a day, or teach a man to fish and feed him for a lifetime.

Here at GRE, we do both get riched occasion.com. Is where you learn through this very show and our videos over there, and our blog articles and more. The name gre marketplace.com is where you take action and see the markets and providers that make the best income properties nationwide. GRE marketplace is also where you get access to our totally free investment coaching strategy sessions with a real human being that has both an MBA and investing experience. And that's something we added three or four years ago that really helps you be profitable as an investor, get paid five ways so that you can have more income and wealth and perhaps even retire early. We help you find the right exact property addresses. That's what we help you do compared to 100 years ago, homes are half price today. This is fascinating. I'll get into that shortly. I'm Keith Weinhold. You're listening to get rich education.

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Speaker 1 20:17

what's up? Everyone? This is HGTV. Tarek al Musa. Listen to get rich education with Keith Weinhold, and don't quit your Daydream.

Keith Weinhold 20:35

Welcome back to get rich Education. I'm your host. Keith Weinhold, the headlines say homes are so expensive that you'd think millennials would be forced to live in IKEA showrooms. Now, a year or two ago, here on the show, I think I mentioned to you that at that time, it took eight kilos of gold to buy the average home, about 100 years ago, and at that time, only six. Well today, it took eight kilos of gold to buy an average home in 1920 but it's only four kilos now, in terms of gold, homes are half the price today, and I sent you that pretty shocking image showing this in our newsletter a month or two ago. So what in the monetary twilight zone has happened in the past 100 years? Well, a lot of things. The 1913 creation of the Federal Reserve inflated away your dollar's purchasing power over time. This was basically like giving your teen a credit card with no limit and hoping for the best, then removing the dollar's last link to gold redeemability in 1971 that freed the rains for unlimited dollar creation. And Robert Kiyosaki was here to discuss exactly that on the show with us on episode 358 go back and listen to episode 358 if you haven't heard it and you want to. Before long, dollars got so flimsy that dive bars started stapling them to the wall as decor, and it seems like the next stop for the dollar is kindling for your backyard fire pit. Now, there is, however, an affordability problem today that keeps renters staying as renters. But part of the calculus here is that homes only seem expensive because their values are usually compared to dollars. But that's faulty, because dollars are a moving measuring stick. This is like saying that an hour has 60 minutes in it this year and next year, it'll only have 55 minutes in it. That doesn't work. I mean, she should a few years, everyone would run a marathon in under an hour at that rate. Okay, so changing the measuring stick defeats the very purpose of a measuring stick. Here's what's even more amazing than that fact about the gold, despite that, homes only cost half as much today as they did in 1920 in terms of gold, you also get more home today. Today's homes have smaller lot sizes, smaller yards, but otherwise they have amenities that people couldn't have even dreamed of in 1920 I mean, this is really interesting. Let's compare a typical 1920 new home to a 2025 new home. We've gone from 1048 square feet up to 2411 so the size has more than doubled. Back then there was no Garage. Today you've got a heated garage. Back then you had one bathroom or even an outhouse in 1920 Oh, today you have two or three or even more indoor bathrooms in just the average new build home back in 1920 you had a wood burning stove that you had to keep loading, and you're like splitting and stacking firewood and storing that somewhere. Today, you have central heating. Just push a button. Back more than 100 years ago, you had no AC. Today, AC is completely standard. You had no insulation a lot of times in 1920 homes today you've got smart insulation. You used to have a very basic kitchen. Today you've got a center island and granite and quartz countertops. You had an ice box back in 1920 and a nice refrigerator or two. Today, back then, you had no dishwasher or garbage disposal. Today, you have both. Back in 1920 you had to use a washboard in a ringer to wash and dry your clothing. Can you imagine that today you have a washing machine? You had an outdoor clothesline back then today you have a dryer back in. 1920 you had these claw foot bathtubs, and often no shower. Today you have both bathtubs and showers, and several of them. Back then you had nothing where today you have a dedicated laundry room, and a lot of times a home office, and sometimes even a gym. I mean, so all those changes right there over the last 105 years. This really puts the exclamation point on the fact that homes are cheaper today. In terms of the value that you get, today's homes might be a third or a quarter of the price that they were a century ago. You can't point to mortgage rates either. They're still below their long run average of 7.7% per Freddie Mac the thing you've got to point to, the big problem here, the elephant in the room, is that salaries have not kept up with inflation, and that is the real crux of the problem in hurting homes affordability. Look, and this could be a real epiphany for you here that affordability fact is even more reason to move today's depreciating dollars into real assets and move that with emphasis and with urgency, dollar savers are just such massive losers. All right, so then, what is the opposite of saving dollars? Some people think it's spending dollars. No, the opposite of saving is not spending. It's borrowing dollars. That's how you go negative on that. The opposite of spending is not saving, it is borrowing. That is how you go negative and short the falling dollar. This really it's all just a fresh approach on what people need to consider doing. Borrow dollars, own income property, let tenants pay your debt, let inflation also shrink your debt like a cheap shirt that spends too much time in a clothing dryer, and just watch inflation pump up your asset price at the same time. Now you are just winning all over the place. You are racking up more wins than Novak Djokovic at the Australian Open. That's why I am resolute about saying what no one else out there says real estate done right is not an inflation hedge. A hedge is a defensive investing strategy where you break even. I mean, no one plays a game hoping for an outcome of a tie, spending money as an inflation hedge. That's why I refer to borrowing for income property as inflation profiting. That's the reason why. And see, other people's money pays down your debt, both the tenant and the inflation are whittling that away for you. Oh, and hey, for my fellow math weirdos, in 1920 a new home cost $6,300 and there are 35 ounces in a kilo of gold, and you can figure out the rest from there to see that homes cost half as much in gold. Now the bottom line here is that the real estate market is not broken. The dollar is and that dollar measuring stick is so miserably distorted and perverted that some people can't even see what's going on anymore. I've got another interesting way of helping you see this.

Let's look at something more recent than 1920 let's go back 30 years. Do you have any idea what the median us home price was then? Any guess 30 years ago, that's kind of charming. It was a modest $130,000 All right, with an 80% loan and zero principal pay down your mortgage balance would be a featherweight 104k today, that is a clear way of seeing how inflation debases your debt. And of course, the tenant would have paid it off for you by now as well. But I mean a loan balance of $104,000 without any principal pay down, sheesh, that's less than some people's American Express card limit. Really think about that by removing the principal pay down component, you can really see with transparency and lucidity the effect of inflation whittling down a loan balance to 104k and that is just 25% of today's median home price of $416,900 that is a stark example of inflation profiting, how your debt got relentlessly debased by the Fed. And of course, rental properties tend to be less expensive than this median number that I'm talking about. So the typical rental property is. In this scenario, you might just have a loan balance of 75k today, here, 30 years later, and the property would be worth, say, 300k inflation makes your loan balances feel like a featherweight over time. All right, now let's go somewhat further back in time again, 1950s Florida.

Last month, in our newsletter, I sent you those fascinating old newspaper clippings from a real estate sales ad from 1955 in the Miami area and a two bedroom, single family home, one bath, screened porch and a carport. Its price was $7,450 for the entire Miami area home. And the ad also showed that your monthly payment is $48 and then, okay, so that was a two bedroom, single family home this Miami area, three bed, one bath home with a screen porch, $7,900 so only an extra 450 bucks for an extra bedroom, that is the purchase price of the entire asset. And the monthly payments on this three bedroom are 50 bucks a month, a little more than the 48 bucks a month that it was for the two bedroom. And here's the thing, the monthly payment amount, as shown in this old newspaper advertisement, $48 and $50 that was principal, interest, taxes and insurance all together, a jaw dropping sub 8k for a Miami area home, not just Florida, but pricier Miami. I mean, can you imagine a Florida couple's home buying conversation in the mid 1950s there at Florida, honey, you're crazy if you think we're going to pay an extra $2 per month for a third bedroom. I mean, this is just astonishing. And yeah, my apologies for leaving you flabbergasted so many times in one episode. Gosh. Now to be sure, wages were lower back then, but back then, only one parent had to work. They still managed to buy homes, raise a family, and even pay for a milkman who actually delivered the milk. And now, you know, if we fast forward to the future, future generations, they're going to marvel at today's incredibly low median home price of 400 to 450k Yes, therefore you will be the one doing the flabbergasting, and you'll leave people From 2070 feeling abjectly flabbergasted when the median home price is $4 million then, I mean, it realistically could be, it could be more than that. It's the same way that today we're astonished at 1960s McDonald's menus where a burger was 15 cents. Yes, 15 cents is seriously how much McDonald's hamburger cost in the 60s. And of course, this is when restaurants also serve real meat and french fries cooked in tallow rather than seed oils, and shakes had real cream in them. That's all evidence of simultaneous skimpflation. But getting back to the monetary inflation, you know, as recently as 2011 we can even feel dazed and amazed about how the median home price, then was just $211,100 Yes, as recently as 2011 you're surely dazed and stupefied here, one thing I know, though, is that this did not leave you slack jawed, because Between you and I, we know there's only one slack job between us, and we know full well that that's not you. The bottom line, the bottom line here is that zooming out over time reveals a clear, uncomfortable truth. Savers get roasted, borrowers get rich. This is just a new way of looking at it.

And if you're a newer listener and you don't get our newsletter yet, it is free, full of value, and I write every word myself. There are more AI generated newsletters out there. That is not what this is. This is me to you, and to get the newsletter right now. Text. GRE to66866, 66866, we don't send you a bunch of texts that would be intrusive. It's an email newsletter. You can get it by texting GRE to 66866

Now, earlier this year, I talked with you about how home sales have crashed. When people read a media headline like that, home sales crash. You know, some people think that home prices are falling, but that's not. What that means is, you know, it means that the quantity of sales has fallen a lower transaction volume. With that in mind, to help you out in the future, when you're reading. For real estate and economic headlines, I jotted down a few fictitious headlines here, but yet they're the same type that you've seen before, and you'll see these again in the future, and they can be misleading. So let's straighten this out. Okay, here's the first fictitious yet realistic sounding headline, what people often think it means and what it really means. Developer uses tax loophole to deliver 200 unit apartment complex All right. Now, some people read that and they think that the developer is doing something nefarious or underhanded. No. Sometimes reporters use this word loopholes to describe legally created incentives to get much needed housing built. Reporters are often doing yeoman's work on behalf of NIMBYs. If this thing is producing more housing, then we need more loopholes, which are really incentives just like it. Here's another misleading headline. Now, almost all of the 50 states have a lower level of housing inventory than they did pre pandemic, but this headline says, Tennessee housing supply 4% more than pre pandemic levels. All right, some might see that headline and think, Oh, I guess that housing is a little oversupplied. Now, no, not necessarily, because most states had a scarce supply of inventory even before the pandemic hit back in 2020 the next headline is existing home sales fell off a cliff. All right, Did you note that this only includes existing homes, meaning resale homes, because, again, the headline is existing home sales fell off a cliff. So this doesn't include new builds. And there's nothing inherently falsified about some of these headlines. They just get misinterpreted. Softwood lumber prices hit all time record high. Okay, well, with persistent inflation, this might not be reason for alarm. Is it even an inflation adjusted high or not? Here's a headline, California leads the nation in out migration. All right, some people see this and assume that the California population is dropping. Well, maybe, maybe not. Again, the headline was, California leads the nation in out migration? Well, raw numbers aren't per capita. Cali is the largest state by population at almost 40 million. And also, if their in migration exceeds this out migration, well then they had positive net migration. And all of this doesn't even count births or deaths. You'd have to factor that in as well. The next headline is foreclosures Spike 50% year over year. Ooh, that sounds bad. And although this is a fake headline, just like the other ones that I'm telling you about, a phenomenon like this did recently occur, actually, but it's still at a really low level. It just rose from an extremely low level, two tenths of 1% up to three tenths of 1% that's a 50% gain. Here's a headline. You might see mortgage rates have dropped 2% this year. Maybe you'll see that in the future. Most people read something like this, and they assume that real estate values will resultantly soar. Well, maybe, maybe not. It sounds like homes are more affordable, and they would be, but the Fed might be cutting rates because the economy needs the help. It could mean we're in a recession. So if wages are down, even if mortgage rates are down, it might not actually be less affordable. The next fictitious headline is Philadelphia new build home prices surge 8% Oh, you're thinking that's got to be good, right? Well, I don't know what if new build Philly homes are constructed with 10% more square footage this year, but the price is only up 8% so they're actually selling at a lower cost per square foot. And this is also why existing home price change is more meaningful. The next fictitious headline is unemployment claims jump 30% in a week. All right? Well, this usually doesn't mean that there are mass layoffs and some economic Armageddon. If initial jobless claims rise from 200 up to 260k that's a 30% jump, but it's still low relative to recession levels, which are typically 400k plus and the last fictitious headline, Warren Buffett, b, u, F, F, E, T, invests $10 billion in apartment REITs. Oh, well, Buffett was spelled with only 1t Buffett should be spelled with a double T. Have you ever noticed that it is the most frequently misspelled name in financial media that's all for the headlines, so having the wherewithal about these sorts of things can help you better interpret what's happening in Real Estate's Future and the economy's future.

One of the most inexpensive national markets, I'll say, outside the Midwest, where you can own income property, where the numbers really make sense. An investor advantage place is in the state of Oklahoma. Some of these Oklahoma properties that we've begun dealing with here, they're pretty small. Like check out this single family rental I want to tell you about that's just 864 square feet. You know, more tenants desire this type of housing. Family sizes are smaller today, yet they want separation in the privacy of a single family home. And this one is brand new build, two beds, two baths, and the price is, get this $155,000 for new build. Yes, you heard that, right, and the projected rent is really strong. $1,250 I mean, this sort of cottage sized new build home is the type of product that can make the best rental, because if it were double the size, you might only get 50 or 60% more in rent. Now there's no garage on this new build 155k property, and you get all the finishes that you would expect from new construction. The second Oklahoma property to tell you about is this Tulsa duplex. This one really stands out. And Tulsa has over a million people in the metro. It was built just several months ago, $2,900 rent on a purchase price of about 360k and these ones, they've consistently appraised in the 375 to 380k range. So you could very well get some built in equity here with this duplex, where the numbers work pretty well as it is, each side of this new duplex has over 1300 square feet, three beds, two baths on each side, free management the first year, $3,000 cash to you post closing, all the nice finishes you'd expect with new build in this Tulsa duplex. So these two properties I've discussed here are really investor advantaged all new build. And that 155k single family rental was in Chickasaw, Oklahoma. And then the Tulsa duplex in the mid to high three hundreds. The next one is the last one. I'll mention. It's not as good of a deal, but it does look nicer because it's a brick faced new build single family rental for 320k in Lawton, Oklahoma. Lawton is more southwestern Oklahoma, with $2,400 rent, and it's 1800 square feet in this new build and just a little positive cash flow. The property tax rate is 1.1% property insurance is just 1250, a two car garage, all the types of finishes that you would expect with new build. So a property like this is if you're looking for a better quality tenant. Oklahoma City has had more happening than usual. You might have heard that the tallest building in the United States is planned to be built in Oklahoma City, yes, taller than anything in New York or Chicago. The Oklahoma City Thunder NBA team has been performing well. You know, those things are merely interesting and have almost nothing to do with the investor advantage. Rental properties, again, all three that I mentioned, there are new build. Not only are we in this persistent national housing shortage, but these entry level homes that make the best rentals, they're the ones that are in even shorter supply. That's a fact I probably don't mention to you often enough. The home ownership rate is down because of strained affordability, so you may very well have a long term tenant in these properties, and then you layer on the fact that they're new build, and it really looks promising for tenants wanting to stay for the long term. Check out the market and the provider. Learn more at either gre marketplace.com/oklahomcity or slash Tulsa. Yes, new build Oklahoma properties, if you're not sure about the exact address, that's going to provide you with the highest returns, our free investment coaching can help you with that as well borrow dollars with long term fixed interest rate debt that both tenants and inflation just relentlessly pay down for you while your expected price appreciation. Can leverage dollars at the same time. Start at gre marketplace.com/oklahoma, city or slash Tulsa until next week. I'm Keith Weinhold. Don't quit your Daydream.

Speaker 2 44:52

Nothing on this show should be considered specific personal or professional advice. Please consult an appropriate tax, legal, real estate, financial or business professional. Additional for individualized advice. Opinions of guests are their own. Information is not guaranteed. All investment strategies have the potential for profit or loss. The host is operating on behalf of get rich Education LLC exclusively.

Keith Weinhold 45:16

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Direct download: GREepisode557_.mp3
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Mon, 2 June 2025

Author and financial expert, Chris Whelan, joins Keith as they explore the intricacies of the housing market's potential future.

Chris drops an intriguing prediction of a possible 20% price correction. They dive deep into the complex world of real estate, examining the pandemic's significant impact on mortgages and economic trends.

The conversation reveals the behind-the-scenes challenges of the housing market, from government interventions to the nuanced effects of interest rates and forbearance programs.

They unpack the struggles in commercial real estate, particularly highlighting the unique challenges in markets like New York's rent-controlled properties.

Chris's new book "Inflated: Money, Debt, and the American Dream" promises an insightful journey through America's economic transformation, tracing how the nation evolved from an agrarian society to a global economic powerhouse.

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555: How to Reduce Vacancy and Increase Your Income, Teak Update

Complete episode transcript:

Automatically Transcribed With Otter.ai

Keith Weinhold 0:01

Welcome to GRE. I'm your host. Keith Weinhold, what's the state of the housing market for the next five years, and could what's happening in the foreclosure market affect it? I see relative housing market price stability. My guest sees cracks. This could be somewhat of a debate today, then two great new cash flow and real estate markets in the same state that we're helping your portfolio with on get rich education, mid south home buyers, I mean, they're total pros, with over two decades as the nation's highest rated turnkey provider. Their empathetic property managers use your ROI as their North Star. So it's no wonder that smart investors just keep lining up to get their completely renovated income properties like it's the newest iPhone. They're headquartered in Memphis and have globally attractive cash flows and A plus rating with the Better Business Bureau and now over 5000 houses renovated. There's zero markup on maintenance. Let that sink in, and they average a 98.9% occupancy rate, while their average renter stays more than three and a half years. Every home they offer has brand new components, a bumper to bumper, one year warranty, new 30 year roofs. And wait for it, a high quality renter, remember that part and in an astounding price range, 100 to 180k I've personally toured their office and their properties in person in Memphis, get to know Mid South. Enjoy cash flow from day one. Start yourself right now at mid southhomebuyers.com that's mid south homebuyers.com.

Corey Coates 1:56

You're listening to the show that has created more financial freedom than nearly any show in the world. This is get rich education.

Keith Weinhold 2:12

Welcome to GRE from Edison, New Jersey to Edinburgh, Scotland, where I am today, and across 188 nations worldwide, I'm Keith Weinhold, and you are back for another wealth building week on get rich education. Today's guest came to me recommended. It came from a guest that we've had on the show here before, Jim Rickards and his daughter Ally Rickards. His name is Christopher Whelan. He has a distinguished background. Comes from a prominent family, and he's the author of a new book that just published a few weeks ago. His father, Richard Whelan, was the biographer of Joe Kennedy, and was advisor to presidents and Fed chairman and today's guest, his son there, Chris. He has done a lot of work in DC. He lives just north of New York City today. So I guess coming recommended from Jim Rickards and learning a few things about today's guest helped me want to host him on the show. So though I'm just meeting him for the first time right here on the show, as it turns out, I learned that he has mentioned on other channels that real estate prices could correct down 20% and fall back to 2020 levels. I absolutely don't see how that's possible in any way. I'm going to bring that up with him, so we'll see. This could turn into somewhat of a debate. Like I said last week, I believe that significantly falling housing prices. That's about as likely as grocery store prices falling back to 2020 levels. Yes, I am in Edinburgh, Scotland today. It's my first time here. My mom, dad and also my brother's entire family came over from the US to meet up. It's been great. We're taking in all the best sites, Edinburgh Castle, other castles, the Scottish Highlands, Loch Ness, though I don't believe in any Loch Ness monster at all. I mean, come on, what a hoax. And we're seeing some other sites, though it didn't really interest the others, which I could understand. I visited the home where Adam Smith once resided, and I might put my video about that on our get rich education YouTube channel, so you could check that out over there. Of course, Adam Smith is considered the father of modern day economics for his work on supply versus demand and the GDP concept, the invisible hand, concept, much of that work conveyed in his magnum opus, The Wealth of Nations, published in 1776 as for the present day, let's meet this week's guest, including me, meeting him for the first time.

I'd like to welcome in a first time guest. He's the author of a widely acclaimed new book. It's named inflated money, debt and the American dream. It just released, and the book couldn't be more timely with the multitude of challenges related to inflation, many involving the housing market in his earlier books, he's been known, frankly, for just telling his readers the truth. He's worked at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York in politics and as an investment banker for more than 30 years. Today, he runs Whalen Global Advisors. You've seen him on CNBC in the Wall Street Journal, and now you're hearing him on GRE Welcome to the show. Chris Whalen.

Chris Whalen 5:43

Thank you, Keith, appreciate your invitation.

Keith Weinhold 5:45

Whalen is spelled W, H, A, l, e, n, if you're listening in the audio only, Hey, Chris, we're in a really interesting time in the economic cycle. We all know the Fed has a dual mandate, high employment and stable prices. What's interesting to me is, late last year, they cut rates by a full 1% and this is despite inflation being above target. Makes me wonder if they care more about high employment and they're rather willing to let inflation float higher. What are your thoughts?

Chris Whalen 6:18

I think historically, that's been the case. You know, the dual mandate Humphrey Hawkins, that drives the Fed's actions today was a largely socialist compromise between the Republicans and the Democrats. The Democrats wanted to guarantee everybody a job after World War Two, the legislation was really about soldiers and people who had served their country in many, you know, places around the world, for a long time, and then you would have the depression. So you had a whole generation or more of people that were looking for help when they came home. And that's what this was. But today, you know, there's another mandate, which is called keeping the treasury bond market open. We saw it was during COVID in 2020 President Trump got up, declared that people didn't have to pay their rent or their mortgages, and then didn't do anything. There was no follow up. At the time, folks in mortgage industry kind of looked at each other funny for about 60 days and said, What's going to happen? Because they have to advance principal, interest, taxes and insurance to protect the house. The first rule in mortgage finances protect the asset. But it all worked because the Fed dropped interest rates to zero and we had a boom. We refinanced two thirds of every mortgage in the United States, and that cash flow allowed the finance forbearance for millions of Americans. Now the unfortunate part, of course, was home prices went up double digits for six years. So why we had no affordability today? So, you know, it helped, but it certainly didn't help in some ways,

Keith Weinhold 7:48

mortgage loan forbearance back in the COVID era about five years ago, where you could basically just skip your mortgage payment and then they increase the overall duration of your loan period.

Chris Whalen 8:00

That's right. So you know, your government market, your conforming market, were falling. They also had various schemes, state forbearance for non agency loans. Nobody thought at all about the multifamily sector and the developers that didn't get paid for two years. And we're feeling the impact of that. Of course, today, that's probably the biggest pain point in US economy today is commercial real estate and multi family real estate, and neither one of them involves a consumer. So it gets no attention at all. You read about it in the specialty press, but that's about it.

Keith Weinhold 8:34

And by talking about multi family not affecting the consumer, you're just talking about who's on the owner side there?

Chris Whalen 8:40

precisely if all of the consumers have problems, you'd hear about it, and you do, especially in some of the blue states. I live in New York, so we have some of the more aggressive rent stabilization, rent control laws in the country. And they go back to World War Two. They go back almost a century,

Keith Weinhold 8:58

right? It's those people in the one to four unit space in residential real estate investing that really got the help there.

Chris Whalen 9:06

Well, at least, you know, the world didn't end. Imagine if all of those people had gone to foreclosure. The industry wouldn't have done that. Of course, they would have thrown up their hands and cried for help. But the point is, they made it work. But the cost of making it work that zero interest rate regime that the Fed put in place is still being felt today. If you look at banks which typically have prime large mortgages on their books, the loss given default is zero. Home prices are so high that if somebody actually goes to foreclosure, they sell the house, they pay off the loan easily, and there's usually a large residual left, which would go to the homeowner. So today, you know, if somebody gets in trouble, we do a short sale, we do a deed in lieu, and off they go. And that's why the stats don't show you the pain that many American families are feeling today, because about 60% of all payoffs of one to four family mortgages are people who. Are exiting the market, they're not going to buy another house. So what that means is that the cost of home ownership, or whatever other factors are involved, has made them make the decision not to go to another home mortgage.

Keith Weinhold 10:13

Yes, we have this historically low affordability that's beginning to be reflected in the home ownership rate. It's trended down from about 66 to 65% recently, we continue to be in this environment here, Chris in the one to four unit space, where those existing homeowners are in really good shape. They have record high equity levels of over 300k A lot of them have their home paid off. About 40% of American homeowners own their home free and clear, and of the remainder, those borrowers, 82% still have a mortgage rate of under 5% and of course, that principal and interest payment stays fixed. So even if there's economic hardship, it's pretty easy for people to make their payments and stay in their homes.

Chris Whalen 11:02

Well, it certainly is for most of the marketplace. If you look at the bottom 20% the FHA market, also the VA market, there's a little more stress there. There's still an awful lot of people who are in various types of forbearance in that market. That's going to end in October. So the Trump administration is pushing most of the rules back to pre COVID approaches for delinquency, for example, what we call the waterfall. And what that basically means is that if an FHA borrower gets in trouble, they'll have one shot at a modification where they lower the loan cost and stick part of the loan out the back to be paid off when the house is sold. If that doesn't take, if they don't re perform, then they're going to go to a foreclosure. We just ended another program for veterans. You know, they had three weeks notice, so now you're going to see a lot of veterans going to foreclosure. Unfortunately.

Keith Weinhold 11:56

yes, this administration is basically making sure that people are responsible or resume their payments. We've seen that student loan repayments needing to resume as well. Most foreclosure rate types are still pretty low, but yes, FHA foreclosure rates are higher than those for conventional loans.

Chris Whalen 12:15

Yeah, the interesting thing is, the veterans delinquency rate is half of the FHA rate, and even though people in uniform don't make a lot of money, they pay their bills. Yeah, it's quite striking.

Keith Weinhold 12:25

Why don't you talk to us more about areas where you see distress in the housing market before we talk about more inflation? Chris, the

Chris Whalen 12:34

key areas of housing stress at the moment are commercial real estate that has become underutilized. COVID drove a lot of this, but also the fact that industries could change their work practices. It could have people work from home. Look at housing. We sent everybody home in 2020 while we increased headcount by a third to address a surge in lending volume. It was insane. I gotta tell you, we were hiring people that we didn't see for months that changed the business model assumptions for a lot of industries. A lot of them moved out of blue states and went down to Florida and Texas. In the mortgage industry particularly, and so we have a lot of older real estate particularly, that is suffering. It has dropped in terms of appraised values. You also have higher interest rates and higher cap rates, that is to say the assumption of returns on the part of investors. So that hurdle has made a lot of these properties impaired, essentially. And then the other subclass is older multifamily properties. Think about those beautiful old apartments in the middle block up on the east side or the west side of Manhattan. They're not big enough to be viable, and so they have become this kind of subprime asset class, much in the way if you recall the signature bank failure, they typically bank these sorts of real estate properties, and now there's nobody that wants them. I think you're going to see some very specific pain coming out of HUD, and also Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac because they bank some of these smaller properties that really aren't bankable by commercial banks. That's what it comes down to. If you're going to read about this and hear about it a lot in the commercial market over next several years. And again, you know, the losses on bank owned multifamily properties today are averaging 100% so that means that there are a lot that have more expenses than simply losing the full loan amount. And you know, if you want to have a bank loan, they're not taking these properties. They don't want them, right? So the bank, REO rate, if you look at the data from the FDIC, is zero. And what that tells you is that they can't sell the properties they don't want them, because if they take ownership, the city's not going to let them abandon the property. They'll have to keep it and maintain it. It's a tough situation. This is. Has evolved over the last 20 years or so, because consumer incomes have been kind of stagnant in real terms. But the cost of operating a property in New York City is not going down. It's going up quite a lot, and the legislation we've seen from Albany doesn't allow owners to recapture expenses, doesn't allow them to renovate apartments. So if I have a rent stabilized apartment, I'll use a real example, in a beautiful building on Central Park South right, to renovate a unit that's been occupied for 20 years, new kitchen, new bathroom, sir, everything services. That's $150,000 so if I'm the owner and I can't recapture that cost. What do I do? I lock the door, I gut the apartment, and I lock the door, and I hope that the laws will change in the future, because I can't rent it, my insurance underwriter will not allow me to rent out an apartment that's not brought up to code. That's New York law, but the folks in Albany don't care about that. We have some really unreasonable people in positions of authority, unfortunately, in some of these states, and you talk to them about these issues, and they don't care. They just pander to consumers, regardless of whether or not it makes sense or not. And that's just the way it is.

Keith Weinhold 16:15

Those evil landlords, quote, unquote, most right evil. They're just mom and pop investors that are trying to beat inflation with real assets, and they have real expenses. Rent Stabilization basically just being a genteel term for rent control, which gives no one an incentive to improve a property for sure

Chris Whalen 16:35

and it reduces the availability of housing ultimately, because nobody builds. You see that in New York right now the home market is pretty tight, up to the conforming limit for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac so you figure a million, 1,000,002 here in New York. But above that, it's quieted down quite a lot. There's compression in some of the higher end homes. And you know, if you go down south, you see a different problem, which is over building. They didn't want to build here, so they went down to the Carolinas and Texas and Florida. There's a huge amount of both multi family condo type developments and single family homes too. But above that average price level way above half a million dollars.

Keith Weinhold 17:15

Sure, it's made this dynamic where things have been flip flopped in the Northeast and Midwest, where the populations aren't growing very fast, those markets have been appreciating more than those in the high growth southeast, all coming back to supply. They're not bringing on enough new supply in the Northeast and Midwest, Chris has just laid out a few reasons for that, due to this high regulation. And then in the southeast, a high growth area, even though that's where people are moving, we're not getting much appreciation there, because you're able to build and that supply is able to keep up with demand. Well, Chris and I are going to talk more about the housing market and about inflation. When we come back, you're listening to get rich education. Our guest is Chris Whelan, the author of a great new book. I'm your host. Keith Weinhold.

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Kathy Fettke 19:45

this is the real wealth network's Kathy Fettke, and you are listening to the always valuable get rich education with Keith Weinhold.

Keith Weinhold 20:00

You welcome back to get rich education. We're talking with the author of a great new book, Chris Whelan, it's called inflated money, debt and the American dream. Chris, I see the residential housing market and their price points as being resilient. I'm kind of looking around and seeing if you have any places where you think that there are any cracks in that? I've heard you talk elsewhere about a housing price correction. Were you talking in the one to four unit space? And how do you think that could happen?

Chris Whalen 20:31

I didn't come up with that idea. I did a biography of my good friend Stan middleman, who's the founder of freedom mortgage. It's a real rags to riches story of a successful entrepreneur, a great guy, by the way, is a beloved man in the mortgage industry. And so what he believes is that cycles are about a decade in terms of human behavior. And he says misery on the eights, which is kind of a cute way of saying it. And what Stan is basically saying is you eventually see so much price appreciation that affordability goes to zero. You run out of buyers, is another way to put it. And then once the Fed gooses it, he thinks we see an interest rate decline this year next year, perhaps you get rates to run a little bit. You get volumes to jump the way they did last summer. You remember, in the third quarter, we had great volumes in the mortgage industry, carried everybody through to the end of the year, and then after that, he says, we get a price correction, maybe back down to 2020 21 levels. So we're talking about a 20% price correction, and we're talking about the loans that have been made in the last few years being underwater. That's something we haven't talked about in a long time. We haven't talked about that since 2008 so I think that Americans inevitably have to see some kind of a correction. What the Fed did was wrong, what they did was excessive. I write about that in the end of my book, but unfortunately, the result is home prices that have galloped along, and eventually you got to reset it. Part of its supply coming online. Part of it is simply, like, I say, you run out of buyers, and when it's simply that purchase buyer who is either all cash or happens to have the deposit, and that's all you have. And there's no flexibility for people that want to get into the market. You know, that's tough. I could recall Paul Volcker years ago, we were talking about that in the book too. He ratcheted down home prices. He raised interest rates so much that home prices went down, and a lot of builders went out of business who had had a lot of snls go out of business, and, you know, the previous decade. So that was a tough time. We didn't even start to do that this time around, because they were afraid to the Fed is worried about keeping the Treasury market open, so they are afraid of deflation, which unfortunately means you don't get those opportunities to get into the market. I remember my parents, when I was very young, they would buy busted homes in Washington, DC. It was a great way to make a lot of money, and in five years, the House would double. That's the kind of market Washington was

Keith Weinhold 23:05

in my opinion, I don't see how there could be any substantial residential home price correction. Historically that happens when there's a wide swath of homeowners that get into financial trouble, like I was talking about earlier, the homeowner is in great financial shape today. In fact, since World War Two, we've only seen home prices drop substantially during one period. That was that period around 2008 and that's when we had conditions that are opposite of what they are today. We had loans underwritten with liar loans. We had an over supply of homes, like I was saying earlier, inflation can't touch one's principal and interest payment. We're still under supplied with homes. Most experts don't think we'll get that into balance for at least five years. I really don't see how home prices could fall substantially. I also don't see how they could rise substantially, like, say, 10% due to that low affordability, but I expect continued stability in prices?

Chris Whalen 24:02

Well, we'll see. I'm not as sanguine about that, because a lot of people feel house rich on paper, but when the bottom of the stack is really hurting as it is now, FHA delinquency rates really are in probably the mid teens. You don't see that yet in the middle with the 727, 40 FICO type borrowers. But I think over time you could, and if, again, it depends on the economy and some other factors, but I'll tell you right now, you're already seeing a correction in the hyad the bottom half, no. And there's a supply problem here, which I agree with you on. It's going to keep those home price is pretty firm. And even where I am in New York, for God's sake, Keith, there's no construction here. So we just had a house across the street from me go from million one. I live in Sleepy, hollow New York, and you know, this is typically around the conforming limit for prices for most of these homes, and it went for 150 $1,000 over the ask, it was crazy. Went in two weeks now, during COVID, we saw this sort of behavior, and we thought, Well, okay, you had zero interest rates. I got a 3% mortgage, by the way, awesome. But here we have a situation when markets cooled down a lot, and yet the lack of availability is really the driver. So in that sense, I agree with you, but I do think the high end could correct rather substantially.

Keith Weinhold 25:24

And of course, in multi family apartments, that's different. That's where values in a lot of markets have been depressed by more than 30% they were subject to those interest rates being jacked up, and we're still going to see balloon loans mature and people default on those in apartments. The pain is not over with air, but at some point that's going to bottom out, and that'll be a buyer opportunity in apartments.

Chris Whalen 25:47

Well, the thing is, new stuff is going fine. It's what happens is when the new gets built, the older assets down the road get discounted. That's really what's going on. People love new as you know, these kids love a new house, as opposed to an older house.

Keith Weinhold 26:02

Yes, that'll help reset the prices in the new market when you can compare those to what existing values are. Well, Chris, talk to us more about your new book and what the overall thesis of the book is in these critical times.

Chris Whalen 26:16

Inflated is meant to help people understand how our country went from agrarian, sleepy, isolationist America in the 1900s to being the dominant economy in the world and the provider of global money. We talk about how we got here. We talk about Abraham Lincoln and Franklin Roosevelt and many other characters. Obviously, we had to talk about Andrew Jackson, who is now embodied in our president, Donald Trump. We try and frame how this is all going to evolve in the future. And my thesis is basically the global currency role is something you get during or after a war. We took the baton from Great Britain after the First World War, and then by the end of World War Two, everybody in the world was broke, except for us. It was last man standing. And so rebuilt the world. We let everybody take advantage of us, and now President, who's saying, Nope, we got to change this. I think if it wasn't Trump, it would be somebody else. To be honest with you, Americans are tired of high inflation. They're tired of some of the other costs that come along with being the global reserve currency, so we try and frame all of this in an understandable way. And I particularly talk about housing during COVID and how that all really, I think, changed things for many Americans. Home ownership has been one of the basic ways we create wealth in this country, and the fact that we didn't have an opportunity for people to get in cheap with a fixer upper or a house that was foreclosed. You know, I think it's unfortunate, but the system just can't tolerate it. We've gone in 2008 and then in 2020 through two very significant crises when the government bond market stopped working. So we talk about that as well.

Keith Weinhold 28:03

I don't predict interest rates. I think it is really difficult to do you mentioned earlier about the prospect for lower interest rates coming. Everyone wants to know about coming. What's your outlook for the future of interest rates and inflation for just say the next five years? Chris,

Chris Whalen 28:19

I think interest rates will drop. That is to say what the Fed controls, which is short term interest rates. In the next year or so, we'll have a little bit of a boom as a result. But I think the concern about the federal deficit and US debt, the volatility caused by President Trump's trade strategy, and just general I think a sense of uncertainty among investors is going to keep long term interest rates higher than we saw during COVID And really the whole period since 2008 the Fed bought a lot of duration and took it out of the market, so they kept rates low. They're not going to do that as much in the future. I don't think they'll buy mortgage securities again, they are very chastened by that experience. So if they don't buy mortgage backed securities, and if the banks don't become more aggressive buyers, and I don't think they will, then you know, the marginal demand that would drive mortgage rates down is just not going to be there. Banks have been holding fewer and fewer mortgages and mortgage backed securities on their books for 35 years. If you look at the growth in the industry, the dollar amount of one to four family mortgages hasn't changed very much. So when you look at it that way, it's like, you know what's wrong? Two things. They want to only make mortgages to affluent households. They want to avoid headline risk and litigation and fines and all of that. And I think also, too some of the Basel capital rules for banks discourage them from holding mortgages and mortgage servicing rights, which is an area I work in quite a lot.

Keith Weinhold 29:55

It seems to me, like increasingly, the powers. It be the United States government just won't let the homeowner fail. They want to do so much to promote home ownership over the long term, we see relative ease with getting a mortgage. We've seen lower down payment requirements during other times, including COVID. We see the government jump in with things like mortgage loan forbearance and an eviction moratorium for renters. They just don't want to let people lose their homes. It just seems like there's more propensity to give homeowners a greater safety net than ever. Well,

Chris Whalen 30:29

we've turned it into an entitlement. Yeah, and Trump is changing that at the federal level. The states, the blue states, are going to continue to play that game at the state level, and they can even have state moratoria. But what's going to happen, and I think sooner rather than later, is you may see the federal agencies start to tier the states in terms of servicing fees, simply to reflect the cost. It takes over 1400 days to do a foreclosure in New York. Gosh, that is a big problem. You can lose the lien in New York now, it takes so long. So I think that, you know, from an investor perspective, from a developer perspective, it's not an attractive venue. That's just the reality. Then you even California is as progressive and as activists as it is, you can still get a foreclosure done very quickly using the trustees. It's just a totally different situation. If there are complications, you can get into a judicial foreclosure, which will take longer. But still, California works. New York is deliberately dysfunctional. We have people in the state legislature who are in foreclosure themselves, and they keep passing these laws. So, you know, I think at the federal level, you're going to see it roll back to pre COVID, but I will say that forbearance, both with respect to the agency and conventional market and private loans, is kind of the rule. Now we work with the borrower much more than we would in the past. It's it is really night and day.

Keith Weinhold 32:00

Chris, your new book has gotten a lot of acclaim. Let us know anything else that we should know about this book, and then if we can get it in all the usual places

Chris Whalen 32:10

you can buy it at Barnes and Noble Amazon. I have a page on my website, RC, waylon.com, with all the relevant links. But the online is the best way to get it. Most of the sales are on Kindle anyway, but well over 90% are online, so we don't have to worry about physical books. I think we'll be doing some book signings in the New York area. So we'll definitely let you know about that.

Keith Weinhold 32:33

One last thought is that the rate of inflation means more to a real estate investor than it does to a layperson, maybe five times as much or more, because when we borrow for an income property, our asset floats up with inflation. That part's really just a hedge on inflation. Our debt gets debased by inflation, which is really a mechanism for profiting from inflation over time. And then, thirdly, our cash flow tends to go up even faster than the rate of inflation, since our principal and interest stays fixed, so real estate investors can often be the beneficiary of inflation. It's sort of strange to go root for a force like inflation that can impoverish so many people. But what are your thoughts with respect to real estate investors and inflation?

Chris Whalen 33:19

Well, you know, it's funny when Jerome Powell at the Fed says that they have a 2% inflation target, my response is, well, we better have at least 2% inflation if we're going to make commercial real estate work. Commercial real estate went up for 75 years after World War Two. I can remember when I was in the rating business at Crowell bond ratings going to see some of the banks here in New York, their multifamily books had only seen the equity underneath the asset go up and up and up. In other words, the land ended up being 90% of the value, you know, 1520, years after the purchase and the improvements were almost worthless simply because the land appreciated so much. Now that has changed since COVID. A lot of commercial real estate, particularly has gotten under a bit of a cloud. You've seen falling prices. However, in parts of the country that are growing where you have a positive political environment, positive economic environment, you're still seeing fantastic growth in both commercial and multifamily markets. So I think being very careful and patient in doing your homework in terms of picking venues is more important now than ever before. You know, I'll give you an example. Down in Florida, we're building new malls every day. The mall down the road that's 15 years old. There's nothing wrong with it, but it's 15 years old. And so the price discounts that you're seeing for existing assets are rather striking. Same thing down in the Carolinas, down in, you know, Atlanta, and going down to the Texas growth spectacle, I'm always astounded by what's going on in Texas. They built so much in that whole area around South Lake, out by the airport. It, they're going to basically subsume used it. So, you know, in those markets, you have great opportunities, but you also have over building. And so we're going to see some cycles where they're going to be deals out there for projects that maybe were a little too ambitious have to get restructured, and astute investors can come in and do very well on that

Keith Weinhold 35:20

like we often say around here, in real estate investing, the market is typically even more important than the property itself. The name of Chris's new book, again, is inflated money, debt and the American dream. It has an awful lot of intersections with real estate investors and how they can play inflation. Uh, Chris has been a terrific conversation about the real estate market and larger market forces. It's been great having you here on the show.

Chris Whalen 35:47

Thank you, Keith. Let's do it again.

Keith Weinhold 35:49

Yeah, some good insights from Chris, a smart guy. And gosh, what a really sad state for rent stabilized apartments in New York City, where landlords of some of those properties, they would have to spend sometimes hundreds of 1000s of dollars in order to bring them up to code, but then they couldn't charge enough rent to offset those expenses due to government intervention and price fixing, so landlords just lock up the property vacant. And this sort of harkens back to when we were talking about some of this last year, when we had documentary film maker jen siderova on the show with her film called shopification, and it was about how rent control slowly makes neighborhoods fall into disrepair. All right, Chris and I had some difference of opinion there on the prospects for a home price correction. I think I made most of my points. He did, though, talk about running out of home buyers. If I have him back, maybe I'll pick up right there. More buyers are baked into the demographics, like I think I shared with you one time the US had its highest ever birth rate years between 1990 and 2010 more than 4 million births per year for a lot of those years. Just to review this with you, you might remember that 2007 was the US is peak birth year. Add 38 years to that for the average first time homebuyer age, and that housing demand won't even peak until 2045 and it will continue to stay high for a few years after that. So that's where the demand is just going to keep coming from, just piling on. And when I say that loan conditions have eased for American homeowners, like I did there during the interview, of course, what I'm talking about is the long term. I mean, lending conditions got more rigid after 2008 and with the adoption of Dodd Frank. What I'm talking about is, before the Great Depression, it was most common to have to make 50% to 60% down payments on property, and you had to repay the entire note in five to 10 years. I mean, can you imagine how that would hurt affordability today and then later, by 1950, 15, year loans were the common one. I mean, even that would impair affordability today. Today, 30 year loans are the common one, and you can put as little as 3% down on a primary residence. A lot of people don't know that either. It does not take 20% on a primary residence. So that's what I mean about the relative ease of credit flow today. Now, Chris has knowledge about other parts of the real estate market that I don't for his work inside DC and in other places like the foreclosure market. We talked about some of that right after the interview. For example, He was letting acronyms like NPL roll off his tongue, and I had to ask him what that meant. That's a non performing loan. Check out Chris's new book. Again, it's called inflated money debt in the American dream. And again, his website is RCwhalen.com and Chris also has a great sense of history, which we didn't get into, longtime real estate guys radio show co host Russell gray and I will discuss monetary history here on the show soon. Like I said, I'm coming to you from Edinburgh, Scotland this week, even if you don't see great sites, you know, it's interesting just walking the historic streets here, if you're an American that's visited here before, you surely know what I mean. And I told you that I'd let you know, the current real estate transaction I'm involved in is paying $650 a night for the hotel here in Edinburgh. Yes, that's a lot. I've actually paid less for fancier places in Dubai, but this hotel here is on the Royal Mile. Of course, I could have found less expensive accommodations elsewhere.

Speaking of less expensive, here's an announcement. And we have new investment property providers at GRE marketplace, two of them, the markets are both in Oklahoma, and they are Oklahoma City and Tulsa, Oklahoma as a state, is known for landlord friendly eviction processes and legal systems, kind of the opposite of New York. So this makes your property management more predictable. Now, when we look at this city, OKC has the lowest priced new single family rentals. I can think of it under 160k Yes, that really puts the exclamation point on inexpensive and favorable rent to price ratios often exceeding 1% which is obviously attractive for cash flow, meaning a 150k single family rental could yield over $1,500 in rent. There's high rental demand in certain sub markets. We have scouted out those exact places for you in the OKC metro, like Edmond Moore spelled M, O, O, R, E, and Midwest City, all supporting consistent rent income, though it was once really oil dependent, OKC has diversified economically, reducing your risk tied to commodity cycles and ok sees local economy that's supported by industries including aerospace, energy, health care and logistics. Then there's Tulsa. Tulsa has the highest cash flowing new build duplexes, perhaps anywhere in the US that I know about. On the single family rental side, a lot of Tulsa investors can find properties under 150k with monthly rents again exceeding 1% of the purchase price, clearly ideal. So yes, both Oklahoma City and Tulsa are now on GRE marketplace. You can either visit the pages and see them there, or one of our qualified, experienced GRE investment coaches. Meet with them. They can help guide you to the very best deals and show you the specific property addresses available right at this time for whatever best meets your needs. If you're looking to either start or expand to another market and you seek cash flow, you really need to consider Oklahoma. Yes, it is free to have a strategy session with an investment coach, whether that's for Oklahoma or other investor advantage regions. I often like to leave you with something actionable. You can start at GREinvestment coach.com start book a meeting for a free strategy session remotely. That's at GREinvestment coach.com, until next week, I'm your host. Keith Weinhold, don't quit your Daydream.

Dolf Deroos 42:51

Nothing on this show should be considered specific, personal or professional advice. Please consult an appropriate tax, legal, real estate, financial or business professional for individualized advice. Advice, opinions of guests are their own. Information is not guaranteed. All investment strategies have the potential for profit or loss. The host is operating on behalf of get rich Education LLC exclusively.

Keith Weinhold 43:14

You know, whenever you want the best written real estate and finance info, oh, geez, today's experience limits your free articles access and it's got pay walls and pop ups and push notifications and cookies disclaimers. It's not so great. So then it's vital to place nice, clean, free content into your hands that adds no hype value to your life. That's why this is the golden age of quality newsletters, and I write every word of ours myself. It's got a dash of humor, and it's to the point because even the word abbreviation is too long, my letter usually takes less than three minutes to read, and when you start the letter, you'll also get my one hour fast real estate video. Course, it's all completely free. It's called the Don't quit your Daydream letter. It wires your mind for wealth, and it couldn't be easier for you to get it right now. Just text gre to 66866. While it's on your mind, take a moment to do it right now. Text, gre to 66866.

The preceding program was brought to you by your home for wealth, building, getricheducation.com.

Direct download: GREepisode556_.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 4:00am EST

Mon, 26 May 2025

Discover powerful strategies to maximize your rental property returns and minimize costly vacancies. Learn how top investors are transforming their approach to property management, from tenant retention techniques to smart staffing solutions.

Key Insights:

Master the art of keeping great tenants and reducing turnover
Understand when to scale your property management approach
Explore innovative investment opportunities beyond traditional real estate

Market Trends Spotlight:

Rental demand is on the rise
Emerging investment options offer unique wealth-building potential
Strategic diversification is key to long-term financial success

Explore alternative investment opportunities like sustainable teak forestry - a generational wealth strategy that offers:

Low entry point
Long-term growth potential
International diversification

Whether you're a seasoned investor or just starting out, these insights will help you make more informed, profitable real estate decisions.

Resources:

Learn more about the teak tree investment opportunity at

Gremarketplace.com/teak

Show Notes:

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554: How to Borrow Tax-Free Like a Billionaire

Complete episode transcript:

Automatically Transcribed With Otter.ai

Keith Weinhold 0:01

Welcome to GRE. I'm your host. Keith Weinhold, learn how to reduce a giant operational expense that you'll have over time your tenant vacancy and turnover, including how many units you must own before you hire your own on site property manager as your employee. Whatever happened to agent commissions in light of last year's NAR settlement, then a timely update on teak tree investing today on Get Rich Education.

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You're listening to the show that has created more financial freedom than nearly any show in the world. This is get rich education.

Welcome to GRE from Manchester, New Hampshire to Manchester, England and across 188 nations worldwide, I'm Keith Weinhold, and you are back inside one of America's longest running and most listened to shows on real estate investing. This is get rich education. What's all that stuff really mean? I'm just another slack jawed and snaggletooth podcaster, a shaved mammal with a microphone. I'm joining you from here in London, England this week for the first time ever on the show. More on that later. Let's talk about reducing the biggest operational expense that you're ever going to have as a real estate investor, at least the one that you can exert a good measure of control over. That is reducing your tenant vacancy and turnover, that constant menace. Now, I suppose you might say that property tax is your biggest ongoing ops expense, but you've got less control over your property tax rate. So yeah, we're talking about increasing your net income by lowering your VIMTUM operating expenses. Vacancy is the V in that acronym. This is big because this can make or break your ability to have your property create positive cash flow and getting tenant turnover right both increases your income and reduces your expenses. It is springtime currently, and it's soon going to be summer, so it is the right time to talk about this. It's when there is more tenant turnover. The goal here is for you to really move the dial in increase the likelihood that your tenant is going to renew their lease. Now, sure if your tenant gets a new job out of town, they're going to move out. But if they're moving because of too many maintenance issues, well then that's something that you could have fixed. The average tenancy duration in the US over time is two to three years. And of course, that's going to be longer in single family rentals and shorter in apartments. And how long your tenant stays is driven by three factors, the price of your unit, the quality of your maintenance and the quality of your management. Let's say that your tenant moves out. To be conservative, that your vacancy period is two months between tenants. Okay, that's the turnover and the time to lease. It two months is a somewhat longish vacancy period. But come on, it happens sometimes, especially if you're going to make upgrades between tenancies and you're busy with other things in your life, if you have a move out every year at that rate, well, that is too often. That would amount. To a vacancy percentage of 14% you might think it's 17% but it isn't, because it's a 12 month vacancy plus two vacant months, all right, but if instead that tenant moves out every two years, that's just 8% vacancy, and every three years that's just 5% vacancy. Of course, if you keep your vacancy period to only one month rather than two, you can have all those numbers. You can really see how you are increasing your income by retaining the tenant. The most vital thing for you to keep in mind is that fast quality maintenance and good communication are by far the best forms of customer service that a property manager can provide, so prompt, quality maintenance. That's a retention strategy. Being a proactive helps. One strategy you can engage in is to reach out to the tenants two months before their lease is set to renew, and that's the time to give them the new lease price and ask them if they intend to stay. If they say, No, they're not, ask them why. And occasionally, you can sway them if there's been a misunderstanding in your relationship, for example, a lingering maintenance issue that hasn't been addressed, and perhaps they didn't bother to contact you about that, if nothing else, I think I mentioned this to you one time before offering a small reward, like a gift card helps. I mean, creating this sense of reciprocation is really one of the best retention tactics out there, even if the items being reciprocated aren't anywhere near equal value, like the value of a 12 month lease versus you giving them, say, a $50 gift card now, say you've tried those strategies, and none of that works, and your tenant does decide to leave, perhaps 45 days from now, but you know that you've got time in your life to turn over the unit now, and You know that you're going to be really busy with other things in 45 days. One thing that you can do then is shift your strategy to pay the tenant. Say you can pay them as little as 10 or 20 bucks a day to leave early. This way they'll vacate during a period where you've got the time to devote to the vacancy and the turnover and the showings to prospective new tenants, and that way, it's not going to linger vacant as long now, a technique like this is a little similar to an eviction, where if a tenant has violated their lease or becomes non paying, without you having to go through the length of Your court driven formal eviction process, you can pay them a lump sum to leave early. Hopefully that's not your situation, but that can come up. And I think you've heard of it before. This is known as the Cash for Keys strategy. That means to get a tenant that's made some violation against their lease, and you want to have them vacate the unit sooner. This means that you get the keys in your hand and the right to enter when you pay them to leave, rather than having to go through the not so fun eviction process and see a tenant wants to avoid a formal eviction as well, because that goes on their record, and then it can make it tough for that tenant to get rental housing elsewhere. But I dislike the Cash for Keys strategy in order to hold off from a formal eviction, because what that does is that rewards a person that violated a lease, although we know that that might also shorten your economic vacancy period, and it could actually be economically beneficial to you, Cash for Keys. It's just not ethical, though. I know it might be tempting for you, the landlord, the cash for key strategy. It rewards societally immoral behavior. Now, of course, you might be using a professional property manager that does all of this stuff for you, like I do today, but still, these are often the best practices for your manager. And I started out self managing, just like a lot of real estate investors do in the beginning, and that's where I learned strategies and techniques like this for reducing your tenant vacancy and turnover. Now, here's a really interesting question that you may not have had to ask yourself yet, but you may down the road, if you've grown your portfolio to a certain size and you're serious about reducing your vacancy and turnover expense, it might be time to ask yourself one big question, and that is for your management and maintenance. Should you use contractors, or should you start to hire your own employees? Now, if you have a small portfolio, it won't be enough work for you to keep an employee busy, so you should go with contract. Contractors. On the other hand, if you have an apartment complex with on site property management, I would definitely recommend having a make ready crew on site, because it's just so easy for them to get to and from a job site. Now, you should still maintain relationships with contractors as a backup, of course, and you should also have specialists like plumbers, electricians and HVAC people ready to call now, most investors are small and they use off site management, but if you grow big enough someday, or maybe it's two day, the important point about employees is that you really need to stay on them, because every extra hour costs you. You don't want anyone out there who's thinking that speed isn't essential, because they're like, ah, you know, I get paid by the hour. Contractors, on the other hand, they quote you or your manager a job up front. So while an extra day hurts because it's one more day you can't lease the unit, it hurts less than it does if you have your own employees. One problem with contractors is they often can't start right away, and this tends to be more true if you're self managing. See if you use a professional manager. They might have their own in house people so you can leverage their employees without having to manage employees yourself, even if your manager brings in an off site contractor, like an electrician or a plumber. Well, that contractor probably gets a lot of business from your property manager, and they have some sense of loyalty to your property manager, therefore, they're incentivized to show up on time faster than if you're trying to self manage, say, your small portfolio of five properties, and you or your tenant are the ones that call the electrician or the plumber. Well, those contractors are going to be less likely to prioritize you and your infrequent requests, and this is just another reason that I like to employ professional management and not self manage. Now, virtually no new real estate investor is going to hire their own employees, and most are never going to at all. All right, but how do you know? How would you know when it's time to hire your own property manager or your own contractor, and have them on your own payroll and you are their boss, if you've got under 20 to 30 units, all right, typically third party property management or self management with contractors, that's going to make more sense, because having a full time, dedicated employee, it's just not financially justifiable. Below 20 or 30 units, you're not going to be able to keep that employee busy. And I'm generally talking about if you have one apartment building here, or a bunch of single family rentals, only if they're in small, close proximity to each other. What about if you grow up to 30 to 60 units? All right now you're in a gray area. If the property is something that's pretty management intensive, like high turnover, or you own an older building, or you generate a lot of work orders, or you're in a challenging area. Well, at 30 to 60 units, you might justify a part time on site person. So how that could practically work in this 30 to 60 unit gray area, what you can do is have a resident manager that gets free rent, plus perhaps a small stipend from you. Okay, so that's a strategy that you can play in this gray area zone. That way they can be responsive to tenant requests, and you can keep your vacancy and turnover costs down. All right, how about when you're going even bigger and you reach 60 to 100 units. Now you're in the range where a full time on site manager or a maintenance person, starts to make financial and operational sense, because here it's 60 to 100 units. Your staffing model, it might be that you have one full time manager, they do the leasing, the tenant relations, in the admin stuff, and you'll also have a second person, a full time maintenance tech if they're needed, all right? And the final tier here, if you reach more than 100 units, oh, okay, now it is standard for you to have a full on site team. You could be in the hundreds of units. So we're talking about a property manager, a leasing agent, a maintenance lead, a groundskeeper and sometimes also a part time assistant manager. So that's it. That's the hierarchy of how, based on your portfolio size and where they're located, how you can serve tenants well and reduce your vacancy and turnover expense. Yes. All right now, what are some things that can shift those thresholds, those unit counts? Well, high rent or luxury buildings, they often need on site staff at a smaller unit count, very low rent or section eight properties, they may need more intensive oversight, buildings that have amenities, like some of these newer apartment buildings that have a pool and a gym, okay, that can trigger some more staffing needs. And if you own multiple properties that are nearby to each other, well, then you can share employees across those properties. And you've got to look at local labor costs in places like New York City, northeastern New Jersey, parts of New England, Miami or LA, those high cost places. Then breaking even on staffing. That probably takes a bigger property than those numbers that I talked about. But here, we tend to invest in those investor advantage areas, the inland northeast, the South, in the southeast, in the Midwest. Now, if you've got, say, even 50 smaller properties, but they're scattered all over the place, in multiple states, well then of course, you're not going to hire employees. A good general metric to leave you with here is that one on site employee for every 50 to 80 units that you own in the same area, that is common, that is a common industry practice in market rate multifamily apartments right now, these are pretty timeless strategies I've been talking about with you here.

As for what's happening in The market lately, I continue to slowly get more optimistic about the long beleaguered apartment market. A few weeks ago, I talked about how there's finally been greater apartment rent increases, although those rent increases are still historically low. What recently we learned that apartments are seeing a longer duration of tenancy and today, per real page, every single one of the 50 largest apartment markets has posted month over month occupancy gains, and then that's somewhat commensurate with what we're seeing on the one to four unit side, because the home ownership rate has fallen. It just fell from 65.7% down to 65.1 quarter over quarter. Now that doesn't sound like much, but that's actually a substantial drop in the home ownership rate in just one quarter. And fewer homeowners means more renters. So this basically means that the percent of Americans, renting has gone up because you just take the flip side of those numbers. So the rentership rate has essentially risen from 34.3 up to 34.9 in just one quarter. Something that completely makes sense, because we all know that home ownership affordability, especially for that first time, home buyer is lower, more renters. Is good for rental property owners. It's bringing more rental demand, more occupancy and more future pressure on rising rents. Now I want to follow up with you on a story from last year that made a lot of waves in the larger real estate world, but not so much for real estate investors. You surely remember this. That is the NAR settlement that a lot of people thought would result in lower real estate agent fees. Lowered commissions were coming. That's what everybody thought last year. Stories about that were all over the place that realtor fees are about to shrink. What's happened since then? Well, not much realtor fees, they still haven't fallen in any significant way, although the settlement was more than a year ago and this went into effect nine months ago. So to back up for a moment, in case you missed it, what happened is that a group of sellers accused the NAR, the National Association of Realtors, of inflating home costs by letting buyer side and seller side agents communicate about commission rates on the MLS home database, which only agents can see. And a jury agreed, so the NAR settled the lawsuit for over $400 million in damages, and it barred agents from sharing commission rates on those MLS databases. So that was a huge change that was expected to extinguish the globally high five to 6% realtor fee in the United States, because global averages are between one and 3% so as a result, the US real estate industry, they were bracing themselves for up to a 30% drop in the commissions that Americans pay annually in fees. But the new rules. Things have been nothing other than a big nothing burger. It only took a matter of weeks, really, for most agents to realize, you know, what did the agents do? They just simply moved their conversations off the NAR website and over to phone, text and email. That's it. Yes, that's all they did. So since that time, the average commission for buyers agents has barely budged. It ticked down less than 110 of 1% so for example, it ticked down less than 500 bucks on a 500k home that's per Redfin. So agents still expect sellers to pay five to 6% now I'm not against agents. Not only can an agent guide you through the process, what they can do is get you a higher sale price than they could have otherwise, because they really know how to market and advertise your property and reach a greater pool of buyers, but their commission rates have hardly budged. And of course, here at GRE marketplace, we typically use a direct model where agent compensation isn't priced into your properties anyway.

To review what you've learned so far today, being proactive can help reduce your tenant vacancy and turnover expense and increase your income. Prompt, quality maintenance, that is a retention strategy in itself, as can having one on site employee for every 50 to 80 apartment units. And one year later, changes at the NIR really haven't reduced aging commissions appreciably. I'm coming to you from London, England today, taking in all the top sites, Buckingham Palace and watching the changing of the guard over there, Big Ben a Thames river cruise and the London Bridge, which is actually called Tower Bridge. The real estate transaction that I'm currently involved in here is paying $550 a night to stay here at a nice hotel in the center of the city. It's right near the Thames, kind of a steep rate, and I sure didn't have to stay right in the city center, where everything is more pricey. But that's the experience that I want to have. Next week, I'll bring you the show from Edinburgh, Scotland, where I'll be paying even more for a well located hotel right on the Royal Mile, and I'll tell you how much more then I am here to boost their economies, I suppose more next, including a really timely update. I'm Keith Weinhold. You're listening to Episode 555, of get rich education.

The same place where I get my own mortgage loans is where you can get yours Ridge lending group NMLS, 42056, they provided our listeners with more loans than anyone because they specialize in income properties. They help you build a long term plan for growing your real estate empire with leverage. Start your pre qual and even chat with President Chaley Ridge personally while it's on your mind, start at Ridge lendinggroup.com. That's Ridge lendinggroup.com.

Tom Wheelwright 24:21

this is Rich Dad advisor, Tom wheelwright. Listen to get rich education with Keith Weinhold, and don't quit your Daydream.

Keith Weinhold 24:37

Welcome back to Episode 555, of get rich Education. I'm your host, Keith Weinhold, with an episode number like 555, you would expect me to go deep with you on real estate pays five ways, but we did that five weeks ago on episode 550 with your audio masterclass right here on the show today, we're talking about something with less upside. Than say that or the inflation triple crown, and instead on reducing your downside, vacancy and turnover expense, next week here on the show, I expect to sit down with a guest that's a highly regarded financier and author of a fairly hot new finance book, Christopher Whelan, and next week's show could get really interesting, because I've heard Chris say something about how real estate prices could fall back to 2020 levels. In my opinion, that is so many levels of unlikely that happening is about as likely as your grocery bills falling back to 2020 levels. So we'll see it could turn into a debate next week with Christopher Whelan and I. He is a sharp, well informed guy that also used to work at the New York Fed. That's next week down the road, longtime and former co host of the real estate guys radio show, Russell gray will join us again here, and we'll see what he's been up to in his post real estate guys, radio life that's coming up in a few weeks. Lots of great future content here, monologs, yes, those slack jawed monologs For me, repeat guests and new guests joining in as well. Back to this week now, there's an intriguing and potentially lucrative investment that we've discussed on the show here before, and I do have a timely and crucial update about it. A little while back, I sat down with the teak operations principle when we were in New Orleans together. These are yes, those Panama teak tree plantations that so many of you have already invested in. Yes. So as it is here. I am an American in London today talking about teak trees in Panama and I interviewed our upcoming guest here when we were in New Orleans together, the teak investment has a long time horizon, because trees have to grow. There's also a low cost of entry and no loans available. This is a real estate investment. You can own the land with the title to it and the trees that grow on top of them. Historically, teak returns have been five and a half percent, which doesn't sound like much, but see it grows in board foot volume at the same time that the unit price grows. And if inflation runs high over the next 25 years, your return might be higher. But the reason that we're discussing this now is because the principal, Mike Cobb here meeting with me, he is going to mention a price, and this is key two weeks from today, on June 9, the price for the teak parcels increases substantially. I'll tell you about that shortly. So for GRE followers, you can get locked into the lower price for just two more weeks. Here's my chat from a little while back with the teak tree investment principle, and then I'll return to bring you more.

Hey, did you know that you can own a quarter acre parcel of a producing teak plantation, you own the title to the land, and you get the growth in the trees. On top of that, this is something that you can do as an investor. And teak trees are a valuable hardwood that you own, typically in Central America. So there's a very low cost of entry to this investment, and that's what attracts a lot of people to it. And I am with Mike Cobb, the CEO. He's also the author of the new book how to buy your home overseas and get it right the first time. But Mike, a lot of people are interested in the teak investment because it is so approachable. Tell us about it. Give us a general overview.

Mike Cobb 28:42

absolutely, you know, thanks for having me on. It's always nice to be with you. We're, we're having some fun here in New Orleans, which is terrific, you know, yeah, the teak plantation is something that I envisioned back in 1998 so what's that like 26 years ago? Right? And in 1999 we planted our very first 100 Acre teak plantation. Because what we thought about at the time, which has now proven true 25 years later, is that, you know, I was either going to need the money in 25 years and be really glad I did this, or I wasn't going to need the money in 25 years and I was going to be really glad I did this. You know what? I don't really need the money now, but I'm really glad I did this. And 25 years comes. And I think that's been really the challenge for a lot of people looking at teak. They're just like, ah, 25 years. It's too long, but 25 years comes. 25 years will come, and you can either have planted the trees and be ready to take this huge windfall of return, or you won't be getting a windfall return. So I think that's the challenge, the mental challenge, I think maybe an average investor has, but I know you work with superior investors because they're paying attention to what you're writing, they're watching your podcast, they're reading your newsletter. You have far superior investors than I would say, the average investor. So I think this is a great thing for folks to check out.

Keith Weinhold 30:00

All right, so you're talking about the investment timeline, from the time a tea tree seed is planted until the harvest time that can feel like quite a while. You have been doing this over 25 years, and that is key when you as an investor go offshore or go overseas to have trust in a stable company that's been around for a long time. That's why, really, you're one of the few people that I work with who are outside of the United States real estate like the teak trees.

Mike Cobb 30:25

Thank you. Yeah, we've been around for 31 years. I've been working in the region. 31 our development company is 28 years old. Our plantation is now 26 years old. 25 with the trees, but we bought the land 26 years ago. But the bottom line, you're right and and the other thing that we should care about. And you brought this up earlier, when we're kind of chatting, is country, what country are you planting trees in that you got to wait 25 years for them to mature and harvest? By the way, the Panama. By the way, Panama, and of all the countries in the region where I feel the most comfortable as an investor, Panama's yet, because Panama's got the canal. And I know people say, oh, yeah, that's right. It's a vital strategic US interest. It's a vital world interest. The Chinese care about it as much as we do. The Europeans care about it. Anybody who wants commerce to happen cares about that canal being open. And so you've got this country, Panama, that has the canal stable, economically stable, politically stable. And when starting to talk about 2550 7500, year time frames, because you own the land, you get the harvest in 25 years, you replant, and then your children get the next harvest, and your grandchildren get the next harvest. It is truly generational wealth. Stewardship

Keith Weinhold 31:41

Panama is a little bit like investing overseas with training wheels on their well developed, first Central American nation. They even use the United States dollars. They do is that familiar? Absolutely well. But as the investors thinking about investing in teak plantations, just tell us about the properties of teak wood, of all wood types. Why teak? Tell us about the value there.

Mike Cobb 32:00

Yeah, teak has been grown in plantations, starting with the British back about 400 years ago. And so you've got centuries of plantation growing of teak as a crop, right? And so you've got this incredible longevity of information and things like that. And I know some of the stats off the top of my head, since 1972 the average price of teak lumber has has risen about five and a half percent a year over a 52 year period. Talk about track record, centuries of growing as a crop, right? 52 years as a lumber commodity. Look, people been using it to make ships. Its hardness is its most valuable characteristic is an extremely hard wood. It's resistant to rot fungus, so it's used in outdoor furniture, for example, right? Some of the stuff on the Titanic they pulled up from the bottom of the ocean, you know, chairs made a teak, right? Teak. But ship builders fine furniture, outdoor furniture and and they're cutting teak down. This is so important, they are cutting teak down eight to 10 times faster than anybody in the world is replanting it. So just imagine what that does to supply and demand and prices based on just basic economics, right?

Keith Weinhold 33:13

Yeah, that is some scarcity. That is a really good point. Tell us about what you're surely interested in. What do the investor returns look like.

Mike Cobb 33:21

Yeah. So you know, to own one of these quarter acre parcels, by the way, you said it before you own the land, you get title to the land you own the trees. $6,880 that's your that's your entry. Gosh. So for less than $7,000 you own a quarter acre of teeth trees that in 25 years projected returns. We all projections right about $94,000 a little over $94,000 so 7000 turns into $90,000 over 25 years, harvest, plant the trees again, and in 25 years, your kids or your grandkids will get the next harvest, and so on and so on. It is a powerful generational wealth stewardship. In fact, right now we have what we call give the gift of teak because look, you know, you got kids, you got grandkids. What are you gonna get them? Right? I mean, they got everything they want, presumably, right? You buy them a teak parcel, right? Buy that kid, buy that grandkid, a teak parcel. What a cool idea. Oh my gosh, in 25 years, you might be gone, right, but they're gonna get this big windfall, and they're gonna thank grandma or grandpa, right for for thinking of them 25 years into the future?

Keith Weinhold 34:27

Yeah? Oh, I love that. And you're so proud about what you do. You regularly offer investor tour so that they come and see the teak. But maybe you know, for you, the investor, you're wondering, okay, if you're used to investing in us real estate, you might be making two leaps here. You'd be going from residential real estate to agricultural, and you'd also be investing in a nation outside your home country. And when it comes to those sort of questions, I think any savvy investor asks, okay, what are the risks involved with this investment? Can you tell us about that?

Mike Cobb 34:59

Yeah, sure. Look, you've got political risk, country risk, political risk, which, I think again, of all the countries in the region, Panama, dollar, economy, canal, safe, stable. So the political risk is minimal. It's there. It's real. You know, fire risk is an issue, right? Trees burn. The good thing about teak is that after about year three, they're up. And you keep them trimmed, trim all the low branches off. So fire risk really drops incredibly low after about year three or four. But ultimately, it's about professional management. We have a company called Heyo Forrestal that we hired 25 years ago, 26 years ago, actually, to help us find the land, do the analysis of the land, make sure it was good for teak. And when you hire professionals, you get professional results. I mean, we stayed with this company for 26 years now, and the guy that we met early on, a little forestry engineer, is now General Manager and partner in the business. So we've watched that business grow up alongside ours at the same time. Those relationships, you know, Dolly Parton and Kenny Rogers have a song you can't make old friends. So here we are with Jacobo and some of the Luis that we've worked with for, you know, 26 years, and the relationships matter, especially in that part of the world, but professionalism and professional management is the key, and you have that alongside the relationships. Both are important.

Keith Weinhold 36:20

yes. So we're talking about how the property manager is such an important part of your team, and you think about your single family homes or your apartment buildings. And Mike here is talking about the importance of professional management, because teak trees need a little management and pruning, and sometimes there are thinnings which can give you some income so that you don't have to wait 25 years. Correct another way in which you might not have to wait 25 years for the full harvest cycle is at times you can buy trees that are, say, already seven years old, so you can only be waiting 18 years, or that are teens, so you might only be waiting 10 years, or some things about that, those are some of the options. But Mike, before I ask you if you have any last word, if you want to learn more about this, get some information, learn more about it, and learn how to connect with Mike's team. He is one of our GRE marketplace providers, and he's the owner of that company. You can do that at gre marketplace.com/teak, any last thing someone should know about teak before they consider investing? Mike?

Mike Cobb 37:16

Yeah, well, two things you mentioned the tour. So we do run discovery tours. We have one coming up in January, end of January, two days, we go out to the plantation, the teenage teat plantation, by the way, oak, which is eight or nine more years to harvest. Then we're going to the sawmill, because all of our logs go through a sawmill to convert to lumber, which enhances the return to the investor.

Keith Weinhold 37:36

Do the teens sleep until noon? Or can we visit them

Mike Cobb 37:38

and then they're on their phones all day If we're gonna go visit them. We'll wake them up and, like, get on their phones. But here's, here's the last parting word. I think it's scary for a lot of people. It is scary. You're going overseas, you're outside of, you know, residential you're going into a new industry. You're going to a new country. The reason this works for so many people, over 1000 now, have done this, is it's such a small bite, $7,000 and if that's maybe one or 2% of your portfolio, what I hate to say, put it on the table and roll the dice, but you'll be happy you did. I'm happy I did. It's a small bite, but that international diversification is so important. And then you put it in something that's absolutely not correlated to the market. It's not correlated to us real estate. I mean, in 2008 to 2012 when real estate was dying in the US, our trees just kept growing. So non correlated, non US, right? And non residential. I think that's the reason you want to take a little tiny piece of your portfolio and put it overseas in something like teak.

Keith Weinhold 38:42

We know over the long term that it has grown in value 5.5% a year, but at the same time, it grows in volume, in the amount of board fees you're getting a crease, an increase in both unit value and volume. It's really growing a couple ways. At the same time, you've had over 1000 different individual investors invest in the teak now, several dozen, maybe even more than 100 of those have been you the get rich education follower. So again, thanks for joining me, Mike. If you want to learn more, start at gre marketplace.com/teak. I'm Keith Weinhold. I'll see you next time.

Yeah, good information from Mike there again for GRE followers, that 6880 price deadline is Monday, June 9, and then it goes to 8680, that is a 26% price increase, and this is because land and planting costs have skyrocketed. And you know, I have long wondered about when they were going to change that same lower price that they've had for a lot of years. The provider recently added a sawmill to convert logs to lumber, and that enhances investment returns. So when you inquire for more info, you can ask about that, and that could very well put them above the 94k per part. Possible projected payout. Teak, hardwood, it just has some amazing physical properties. It's not your run of the mill. Backyard. Maple, it is a real asset. Think of it as a forest that fights back against Fiat and the provider reputation and continuity are almost impeccable. They've even had the same forestry manager, yeah, sort of like a property manager for trees, because trees take things like prunings and thinnings, the same manager for all 26 years of the teak operation. In the future, I might join one of their teak investor tours in Panama, and if I do, I'll be sure to let you know so that we can meet up that might even be a GRE exclusive tour. What you really need to know now is that, again, the lower price is good until Monday, June 9, to get started or simply learn more, visit gre marketplace.com/teak, that's t, e, a, k, until next week, I'm your host. Keith Weinhold, don't quit your Daydream.

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Keith Weinhold 41:34

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Category:general -- posted at: 4:00am EST

Mon, 19 May 2025

Keith discusses the mortgage landscape, emphasizing the benefits of cash-out refinances with Ridge Lending Group President, Caeli Ridge.

They unpack the Trump administration’s plan to privatize Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, which could impact the mortgage market.

Investors are discovering powerful strategies to leverage property equity and optimize their financial portfolios.

By understanding innovative borrowing techniques, savvy real estate investors can access tax-efficient capital and create sustainable wealth-building opportunities.

Consider working with a lender that specializes in investor-focused loan products and provides comprehensive education on the options available.

Resources:

RidgeLendingGroup.com or call 855-74-RIDGE

or e-mail: info@RidgeLendingGroup.com

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553: "Tariffs Will Create Empty Shelves and Economic Disaster" -Father of Reaganomics, David Stockman Joins Us

Complete episode transcript:

Automatically Transcribed With Otter.ai

Keith Weinhold 0:01

Welcome to GRE. I'm your host. Keith Weinhold, we're talking about the mortgage loan landscape in this era. Is title insurance a rip off today? Is it worth it for you to pay discount points at the closing table to get a lower interest rate? Learn about how a cash out refinance. Is your ability to borrow tax free, much like a billionaire does, and what are the dramatic changes that the current administration could take to alter the mortgage environment for years, all today on get rich education.

Speaker 1 0:34

Since 2014 the powerful get rich education podcast has created more passive income for people than nearly any other show in the world. This show teaches you how to earn strong returns from passive real estate investing in the best markets without losing your time being a flipper or landlord. Show Host Keith Weinhold writes for both Forbes and Rich Dad advisors, who delivers a new show every week since 2014 there's been millions of listener downloads of 188 world nations. He has a list show guests include top selling personal finance author Robert Kiyosaki, get rich education can be heard on every podcast platform, plus it has its own dedicated Apple and Android listener phone apps build wealth on the go with the get rich education podcast. Sign up now for the get rich education podcast or visit get rich education.com

Corey Coates 1:20

You're listening to the show that has created more financial freedom than nearly any show in the world. This is get rich education.

Keith Weinhold 1:36

Welcome to GRE from Liverpool, England to Livermore, California and across 188 nations worldwide. I'm Keith Weinhold, and you are listening to get rich education, the voice of real estate. Since 2014 it's been estimated that there are about 800 billionaires in USA, and hey, you might be one of them, but there's a pretty good chance that you aren't well. When it comes to lending and mortgages, you can actually take a page out of a billionaires playbook and do something very much like what they do whenever you perform a cash out refinance if you've got dead equity in a property, and you can borrow against your own home to a greater extent than you can against your rental properties, even either one of those is a tax free event, you've now got tax free cash, and you can use that money on anything from investing it in the stock market To using your proceeds for a down payment on more real estate or buying a boat or going to Disneyland, and you didn't have to relinquish your asset at all. You continue to hold on to the asset. Now, the mechanics are somewhat different, sure, but when you do a cash out refinance like this, it's a bit like billionaires borrowing against their stock. Instead, you're borrowing against the value of your real estate. In fact, listening to this short clip, it's Trevor Noah talking about how billionaires do exactly this, and you'll notice that the crowd laughs because it actually sounds funny that you can really do this,

Speaker 2 3:22

the shares that they hold in a company, because it is an unrealized gain, right? So they go like, yeah, you're worth 300 billion, but we can't tax you on those stocks because you haven't sold the shares, so you don't, like, have the money. And I understand the argument. They go like, No, you don't have it. It's just what it's worth, because it will also crash, and then you have nothing, so we can't tax you on it. Then I'm like, Okay, I understand that. Then Elon Musk offers to buy Twitter, all right? He offers to buy it. And then he says in his offer, he goes, I'm putting up my Tesla stock as collateral. Then I'm like, so you do have it? Then he's like, no, no, no, no, I don't have it. I don't have it. I'm just gonna say so then they accept the offer. He now buys Twitter. Now that they've accepted his offer, he now goes to private equity and banks and like other rich people and whatever. He goes like, can you guys borrow me the money to buy Twitter? And then he's like, I'm I want to buy Twitter because I don't want to sell any of my Tesla shares, so I want to use your money to buy Twitter. And then it's like, but then they're like, What are we loaning it against? And he's like, Well, my Tesla shares. Then I'm going, like, Wait, so, so you, you can, you can buy a thing based on what you have, yes, but when we want to tax you, you can say, I don't have it. Do you hear what I'm saying here?

Keith Weinhold 4:46

Yeah, you can borrow against your real estate if you have substantial equity in it. We'll talk about just how much now billionaires borrow against their stock holdings using financial products like portfolio lines of credit or. For securities based loans. These are the names for how they do it, essentially taking out loans and using their stock as collateral. And this allows them to access cash without selling their assets and without incurring capital gains taxes, much like you can so you can say that you don't want to sell your property in you don't have to go through some capital raising round either, like a billionaire might have to when they're borrowing against their stock. You can just have a more standard mortgage application for your cash out refinance, and you don't even have to have a huge portfolio. I mean, even if you just own one 500k property with 50% equity in it, you can do this so it's available to most any credit worthy person, again, tax free. But of course, this doesn't mean that you always should take this windfall, because it often creates a higher monthly payment. You've got to be the one that makes that decision in controlling your cash flows, that is key. I'll talk about that some more with today's terrific guests. Also the Trump administration's desire to privatize Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac we're going to talk about that and what that would do to the mortgage landscape. I am in the USA today, next week, I'll be bringing you the show from London, England for the first time, the following week, from Edinburgh, Scotland. Yes, the mobile GRE Studio will be in effect. I typically set it up myself, and I usually don't need the help of the hotel staff for an appropriate Sound Studio either. And then shortly after that, I will be in Anchorage, Alaska, where I'm competing in these fantastic mountain running races. And then by next month, that's where I hope to meet up with you in person for nine days of learning and fun, as I'll be in Miami as part of the faculty for the terrific real estate guys invest or summon at sea, where we're all going to disembark from Miami and go to St Thomas, St Martin and the Bahamas, and then after that great event, it is a long flight from Miami back to Anchorage again. And that's got to be one of the longer domestic flights, not just in the nation, but in the world, Miami to Anchorage, and then shortly after that, I will be in the Great Northeast early this summer, New York and Pennsylvania, including for my high school reunion. So I'll really be putting the miles on these next couple months. One interesting thing that I've noticed for next week's show, where I'll be joining you from London, is how much I'm paying per night at both my hotel in England and then later my hotel in Scotland. That's obviously a short term real estate transaction. These are some of the more expensive places in the world, really. So next week and then the week after, I just think you'll find it interesting. I'll tell you how much I'm spending per night in both London and then Edinburgh. And they're both prime locations, where the hotels are the center of London and then right on Edinburgh's Royal Mile. That is in future weeks as for today, let's talk about the mortgage landscape with this week's familiar and terrific guest.

I'd like to welcome in one of the more recurrent guests in our history, so she needs little introduction. She's the longtime president of the mortgage company that's created more financial freedom for real estate investors than any lender in the nation because they specialize in income property loans. It's where I get my own loans for my own rental properties. Ridge lending group. Hey, welcome back to GRE Caeli ridge.

Caeli Ridge 8:57

Thank you, Keith. You know I love being here with you and your listeners. I appreciate you having me.

Keith Weinhold 9:01

You've helped us for so long. For example, who can forget way back in episode 56 Yeah, that's a deep scroll back when Chaley broke down each line of a good faith estimate for us, that's basically a closing statement sheet. She told us exactly what we pay for at the closing table, line by line like origination fee, recording costs and title insurance so helpful. It's just the sort of transparency that you get over there. Buyers pay for title insurance at the closing table. It is title insurance a rip off. A few years ago, a lot of people speculated that title insurance would fade away because the property's ownership could be transparent and accessible to everybody on the blockchain, but we don't really see that happening. So tell us about title insurance, and really, are we getting value in what we pay for there at the closing table?

Caeli Ridge 9:54

Well, I think the first thing I would say is that it really isn't going to be an option as far as I. Know, as long as the individual is going to source institutional funding leverage use of other people's money, they're going to require the lender, aka Ridge lending, or whoever you're working with, they're going to require that title insurance that ensures their first lien position. Doing that title search, first and foremost, is going to make it clear that there isn't some cloud on title, that there isn't some mechanic lien that had been sitting out there for however many years it may have just been around. And those types of things never go away. So for a lending perspective, it's going to be real important that that title insurance is paid for and in place to protect their interests, things like judgments, tax liens, like I said, a mechanic's lien, those will automatically take a first lien position in front of a mortgage. So obviously we're not going to risk that and find ourselves in second lien position in the event of default and somebody else is getting paid before we are. So not really an option. Is it a rip off? I don't know enough about how often it's paid out, and not to speak to that, but I will tell you that it isn't a choice.

Keith Weinhold 11:07

Title Insurance, like Shaylee was talking about. It protects against fraud related to the property's ownership, someone else claiming rights to the property, and this title search that an insurer does it also, yeah, it looks for those liens and encumbrances, including unpaid taxes, maybe unpaid HOA dues, but yeah, mortgage lenders typically require title insurance, and if you the borrower, you might think that's annoying. Well, it does make sense, because the bank needs to protect their collateral. If a bank ever has to foreclose, they need to have access to you, the borrower, to be able to do that without any liens or ownership claims from somebody else. Caeli, how often do title insurance companies mess up or have to pay out a claim? Does that ever happen?

Caeli Ridge 11:50

I mean, if I have been involved in a circumstances where that was the case, it's been so many years ago, they're pretty fastidious. I don't know that I could recall a circumstance where something had happened and the title insurance was liable. They go through the paces, man, they've got to make sure that, and they're doing deep dives and searches across nationwide to make sure that there isn't any unnecessary issue that's been placed on title Not that I'm aware of. No.

Keith Weinhold 11:50

Are there any of those other items that we tend to see on a good faith estimate that have had any interesting trends or changes to them in the past few years?

Caeli Ridge 12:27

Yeah, I've got a good one, and this is actually timely credit reports. So over the last couple of years, something has been happening with credit reports where, you know, maybe three, four years ago, a credit report, let's say a joint credit report, a husband and wife went and applied that credit report might cost 25 bucks. Well, now it's in excess of 100 plus. Some of what we're going to be talking about today, it kind of gets into the wish list of Jim neighbors, who is the president of the mortgage brokers Association. He's been talking to the administration about some of his wishes, and credit report fees is actually one of the things that they're wanting to attack and bringing those costs down for the consumer. So when we look at a standard Closing Disclosure today, credit report costs have increased significantly. I don't have the percentages, but by a large margin over the last couple of years,

Keith Weinhold 13:21

typically not one of your bigger costs, but a little noteworthy. There one thing that people might opt and choose to have on their good faith estimates, so that borrower therefore would actually pay more out of pocket with today's higher mortgage rates. And I'm sure not to say high, because historically, they are not high. Do we see more people opting to pay discount points at the closing table to get a lower rate and talk to us about the trade offs there

Caeli Ridge 13:46

right now, first and foremost, that there isn't a lot of option for investment property transactions, whether it be a purchase or refinance. There's not going to be that option where the consumer gets to choose to say, Okay, I want to pay points for a lower rate or not pay points for a higher rate the not paying points is the key here. There isn't going to be a zero point option for investment property transactions. And this gets a little bit convoluted, and then I'll circle back and answer the question of, when does it make sense to pay the points, more points versus less points? We have been in a higher rate environment that I think a lot of people have become accustomed to as a result secondary markets, where mortgage backed securities are bought and sold, they keep very close tabs on the trends and where they think things are headed. Well, something called YSP, that stands for yield, spread, premium, under normal market circumstances, a consumer can say, okay, Caeli, I don't want to pay any points. Okay, I'll take this higher interest rate, and I don't want to pay any points, because that higher interest rate is going to have YSP, yield, spread, premium to pay compensation to a lender, and you know, the other third parties that may be involved in that mortgage backed security. But. Sold and traded, etc, okay? They have that choice under normal market circumstances. Not the case right now, because when this loan sells the servicing rights, whoever is going to pick up the servicing rights, so when Mr. Jones goes to make his mortgage payment, he's going to cut a check to Mr. Cooper. That's a big one, right? Or Rocket Mortgage, or Wells Fargo, whoever the servicer is, the servicing rights are purchased at a cost. They have to pay for the servicing rights, and let's say that's 1% of this bundle of mortgage backed securities that they're purchasing. Well, they know the math is, is that that servicer is going to take about 36 months before that upfront cost is now in the black or profitable. This all will land together. Everybody, I promise you stick with me, so knowing that we've got about a 36 month window before a servicer that picked up the rights to service this mortgage is going to be profitable in a higher rate environment, as interest rates start coming down, what happens to the mortgage that they paid for the rights to service 12 months ago, 18 months ago, that thing is probably going to refinance right prior to the 36 month anniversary of profitability. So that YSP seesaw there is not going to be available for especially a non owner occupied transaction. So said another way, zero point rates are not going to be valid on a non owner occupied transaction in a higher rate environment when secondary markets understand that the loans that are secured today will very likely be refinanced prior to profitability on the servicing side of that mortgage backed security that is a risk to the lender, yes. So we know that right now you're not going to find a zero point option. Now that may be kind of a blanket statement. If you were getting a 30% loan to value owner occupied mortgage with 800 credit scores, you know that's going to be a different animal. And of course, you're going to have the option to not pay points. The risk for that is nothing. Okay, y SP is going to be available for you, the consumer, to be able to choose points at a lower rate, no points higher rate. When does it make sense to pay additional points? Let's say to reduce an interest rate, the break even math. And you know, I'm always talking about the math, the break even math is actually the formula is very simple. All you need to do is figure out the cost of the points. Dollar amount of the points, let's say it's $1,000 and that's what it's going to cost you to, say, get an eighth or a quarter or whatever the denomination is, in the interest rate reduction. But you aren't worried about the interest rate necessarily. You're looking at the monthly payment difference. So it's going to cost you $1,000 in extra points, but it's only going to save you $30 a month in payment when you divide those two numbers, what's that going to take you 33 months? 30 well, okay, and does that make sense? Am I going to refinance in 33 months? If the answer is no, then sure pay the extra 1000 bucks. But that's the math, the cost versus the monthly payment difference divide that that gives you the number of months it takes to recapture cost versus cash flow or savings, and then you be the determining factor on when that makes sense.

Keith Weinhold 18:10

It's pretty simple math. Of course, you can also factor in some inflation over time, and if you would invest that $1,000 in a different vehicle, what pace would that grow at as well? So we've been talking about the pros and cons of buying down your mortgage rate with discount points before we get into the administration changes. Cheley talk about that math in is it worth it to refinance or not? It's a difficult decision for some people to refinance today with higher mortgage rates than we had just a few years ago, and at the same time, we've got a lot of dead equity that's locked up.

Caeli Ridge 18:40

I would start first by saying, Are we looking to harvest equity? Are we pulling cash out, or are we simply doing a rate and term refinance where we're replacing one loan with another loan, if it's for rate and term, if we're simply replacing the loan that we have today with a new loan, that math is going to be pretty simple. Why would you replace 6% interest rate with a 7% interest rate? If all other things were equal, you wouldn't unless there was a balloon feature, or maybe an adjustable rate mortgage or something of that nature involved there that you have to make the refinance. So taking that aside, focusing on a cash out refinance, and when does it make sense? So there's a little extra layered math here. The cash that you're harvesting, the equity that you're harvesting, first of all, borrowed funds are non taxable. What are we going to do with that pile of cash? Are we going to redeploy it for investing more often than not talking to investors? The answer is yes. What is that return going to look like? So you've got to factor that in as well, and then we'll get to the tax benefit in a moment. But generally speaking, I like to as long as the cash flow is still there, okay, you've got to have someone else covering that payment. Normally, there's exceptions to every rule. I don't normally advise going negative on a cash out refi. There are exceptions. Okay, please hear me. But otherwise, as long as the existing rents are covering and that thing is still being paid for by somebody else, then what you want to do is look at that monthly payment. Difference again, versus what you're getting out of it. And then you divide those two numbers pretty simply, and it'll take you how long. And then you've got a layer in the cash flow that you're going to get from the new acquisitions, and whether that be real estate or some other type of investment, whatever the return is, you're going to be using that to offset. And then finally, I would say, make sure that you're doing adding in the tax benefit. These are rental properties guys, right? So closing costs can be deducted now that may end up hurting debt to income ratio down the road. So don't forget, Ridge lending is going to be looking at your draft tax returns. Very, very important to ensure that we're setting you up for success and optimizing things like debt to income ratio on an annual basis.

Keith Weinhold 20:40

Now, some investors, or even primary residence owners might look at their first and only mortgage on a property, see that it's 4% and really not want to touch that. What is the environment and the appetite like today for having a refinance in the form of a second mortgage? That way you can keep your first mortgage in place and, say, 4% get a second mortgage at 7% or more. How does that look for both owner occupied and non owner occupied properties today?

Caeli Ridge 21:07

you're going to be looking at prime, plus, in many cases, if you don't want to mess with a first lien, a second lien mortgage is typically going to be tied to an index called prime. Those of you that are familiar with this have probably heard of that. Indicee. There's lots of them. The fed fund rate, by the way, is an index. There's lots of them. The Treasury is also another index. Prime is sitting, I think, at seven and a half percent. So you're probably going to be looking at rate wise, depending on occupancy and credit score and all of those llpas that we always talk about, loan level, price adjustment. You know, it could be prime plus zero, it could be prime plus four. So interest rates could range between, say, seven and a half, on average, up to 11 even 12% depending on those other variables. More often than not, those are going to be interest only. So make sure that you're doing that simple math there. And I would prefer if I'm giving advice the second liens, the he loan, which is closed ended, very much like your first mortgage, it's just in second lien position. It's amortized over a certain period of time, closed ended. Not as big a fan of that. If you can find the second liens, especially for non owner occupied, I would encourage it to be that open ended HELOC type.

Keith Weinhold 22:15

What are we looking at for combined loan to value ratios with second mortgages

Caeli Ridge 22:19

on an owner occupied I think you'd be happy to get 90. I think I've heard that in some cases, they can go up to 95% in my opinion, that would go as high as they'll let you go right on a non owner occupied, I think you'd be real lucky to find 80, and probably closer to 70.

Keith Weinhold 22:34

That really helps a lot with our planning. Well, the administration that came in this year has made some changes that can create some upheaval, some things to pay attention to in the mortgage market. We're going to talk about that when we come back. You're listening to get rich education. Our guest is Ridge lending Group President, Caeli Ridge I'm your host, Keith Weinhold.

The same place where I get my own mortgage loans is where you can get yours. Ridge lending group NMLS, 42056, they provided our listeners with more loans than anyone because they specialize in income properties. They help you build a long term plan for growing your real estate empire with leverage. Start your prequel and even chat with President Chaeli Ridge personally while it's on your mind, start at Ridge lendinggroup.com. That's Ridge lendinggroup.com.

Hal Elrod 24:38

this is Hal Elrod, author of The Miracle Morning and listen to get rich education with Keith Weinhold, and don't put your Daydream.

Keith Weinhold 24:55

Welcome back to get rich education. We're talking about mortgages again, because this is one. Where leverage comes from. I'm your host. Keith Weinhold, we're sitting down with the president of ridge lending group, Caeli Ridge, and I know that she has some knowledge and some updates on new administration leadership and some potential changes for the market there. What can you tell us? Caeli

Caeli Ridge 25:16

I'm pretty excited about this one, and I'm watching very diligently to see how it unfolds. So the new director of the FHFA Federal Housing Finance Agency, all is Bill Pulte. This is the grandson of Pulte Homes. Okay, smart guy. I'm excited to see what he's going to come in and do. Well. He had recently, I think in the last couple of weeks, he put out in the news wires asking for feedback from the powers that be, related to Fannie and Freddie, what improvements they would like to see. So first up was Jim neighbors. He is the president of the mortgage brokers Association. He had a few very specific wish list items, if you will. And the first one on his list was the elimination of LLP, as for non owner occupied and second home. So let me just kind of paint a picture here, because there's some backstory I think is important. So an LLPA, for those of you that have never heard that term before, stands for a loan level price adjustment. And a loan level price adjustment is a positive number or a negative number that associates with the individual loan characteristics. So things like loan to value or loan size, occupancy is a big ll PA, the difference between an owner occupied where you live and one that you're going to use as a rental property, that's a big one. Credit score, property type, is it a single family? Is it a two to four? Is this a purchase? Is it a refi? Anyway, all of those different characteristics are ll pas. Well, if we take a step back in time, gosh, about three years ago now, Mark Calabria, at the time, was the director of the FHFA, and he had imposed increases, specific increases. This was middle of 22 I want to say specific increases to the LL pas for non owner occupied property. So if anybody kind of remembers that time, we started to really see points and interest rates take that jump sometime in 2022 more than just the traditional interest rate market and the fluctuations. This was very material to investment property and second home, but we'll focus on the investment property. So Mr. Jim neighbors came in and said, first and foremost, I'd like to see those removed, and I want to read something to the listeners here, because I thought it was very interesting. This is something I've been kind of preaching from the the rooftops, if you will, for many, many years. Yeah, we've got neighbors sticking up for investors here. He really is. And I Yeah, well, yes, he is. And more often than not, they're focused on the owner occupied so I'm just going to kind of read. I've got my cheat sheet here. I want to make sure I get it all right for everybody. So removal of the loan level price adjustments on investment properties and second homes, he noted that these risk based fees charged by Fannie and Freddie discourage responsible buyers from purchasing second homes and investment properties, with that insignificant increase to cost. And here's the important part, originally introduced to account for additional credit risk, many of the pandemic era llpa increases were not based on updated risk metric. In fact, data has shown that loans secured by investment properties often have strong credit profiles and lower than expected default rates. I mean, anybody that has been around long enough to see what we've come from, like, 08,09, and when we had the calamity of right, the barrier for entry for us to get any conventional financing as investors has been harsh. I mean, I make that stupid joke of vials of blend DNA samples. But aside from it being an icebreaker, it kind of feels true. We really get the short end of the stick. And I feel like as investors especially, post 08,09, our credit profiles, our qualifications, the bar is so high for us, the default risk there has largely been removed. We've got so much skin in the game. With 20 25% down, credit score is much higher, debt to income ratios more scrutinized, etc, etc. So I think that this is, if it passes muster. I think this is going to be a real big win for the non owner occupied side of agency, Fannie, Mae, Freddie, Mac lending.

Keith Weinhold 29:13

The conventional wisdom is, is that if you the borrower, get into financial trouble, you're more likely to walk away from your rental properties than you are your own home and neighbors, sort of like a good neighbor here sticking up for us and stating that, hey, us, the investors, we're actually highly credit worthy people.

Caeli Ridge 29:29

Yeah, absolutely. So fingers crossed. Everybody say your prayers to the llpa and mortgage investor rates gods.

Keith Weinhold 29:37

we'll be attentive to that. What other sorts of changes do we have with the administration? For example, I know that Trump and some others in the administration have talked about privatizing the GSEs, those government sponsored enterprises, Fannie, Mae, Freddie Mac and what kind of disruption that would create for the industry. Is it really any credence to that?

Caeli Ridge 29:58

They've been talking about it for. For quite a while. I mean, as long as Trump has been kind of on the scene, that's been maybe a wish list for him. I don't see that happening over the next years. That is an absolute behemoth to unpack and make a reality. Speaking of Mark Calabria, he was really hot and heavy on the trails of doing that. So what this is, you guys so fatty Freddy, are in conservatorship that happened back post 08,09, and privatizing them and making them where it is not funded, or conservatorship within the United States government. Now it still has those guarantees against default. It's a very complicated, complex, nuanced dynamic of mortgage backed securities, but if we were to privatize them at some point now, am I saying that that's a bad thing? No, not necessarily, but I think it has to be very carefully executed, and because there are so many moving parts, I do not think that just one term of presidency is going to make that happen. If we do it, it's going to be years down the road from now. Is my crystal ball. I don't think we're going to see that anytime soon.

Keith Weinhold 30:58

That's interesting to know. Are there any other industry changes that are important, especially for investors, whether that has to do with the change in administration or anything else?

Caeli Ridge 31:08

Well, specific to that wish list from Mr. Neighbors, one of the other things that he had asked, and there were quite a few, for owner occupied changes as well, he wants to reduce the seasoning for cash out refinances of investment properties, which would be huge good. Yeah, right now it's 12 months on a cash out refinance given very specific acquisition details. Okay, I won't go down that rabbit hole, but currently, if you haven't met exactly these certain benchmarks, you may have to wait 12 months to pull cash out of a property from the day that you acquire it, he's asking that that be pulled back to about six months, which would be nice

Keith Weinhold 31:46

reducing the seasoning period from 12 months to six months, meaning that an investor a borrower, would only need to own that property for that shorter duration of time prior to performing a refinance.

Caeli Ridge 31:58

Cash out refinance, no seasoning required on a rate and term. This is specific for cash out. But again, for cash out, but exactly right

Keith Weinhold 32:04

now, one trend that I think about sometimes, especially when I think back to 2008 2009 days since I was an investor through that time, is, are there any signs in the reduction of the appetite or the propensity to lend, to make loans. So how freely is credit flowing?

Caeli Ridge 32:25

I think pretty freely. I'm not seeing that they're tightening the purse strings. That's not the lens that I'm looking at it from, and I try to keep that brush stroke broad. There have been, I think that on the post, close side, there's been a little extra from Fannie Freddie, and I think that has to do with profitability markers. But overall, I'm not seeing that products are disappearing necessarily, or that guidelines are really becoming even more cumbersome. If anything, I would say it's maybe the reverse of that, and I do believe that probably is part and parcel to this administration and the real estate background that comes with it.

Keith Weinhold 32:59

One other thing I pay attention to, but it just really hasn't been much of a story lately. Are delinquencies in foreclosures. It seems like they've ticked up a little bit, but they're still both really historically low and basically a delinquency being defined as when a borrower makes one late payment, and foreclosures being the more severe thing, typically a 120 days late or more. Any trends there? I'm not

Caeli Ridge 33:24

seeing any now. And in fact, I would tell you that, because we focus so much on investor needs, first payment default is I can count on less than one hand, if I had to, how many times I've seen that happen with our clients over 25 years. So nothing noteworthy there for me.

Keith Weinhold 33:40

Yes. I mean, today's borrowers are just flush with equity. Nationally, there's a loan to value ratio of 47% which is healthy, in a sense. On average, borrowers have a 53% equity position. Of course, the next thing, I think, is like, I don't really know if that's a smart strategy. They're not really getting that much leverage out there. But I think a lot of people just have the old mentality of get it paid off.

Caeli Ridge 34:06

And I think that depending on where you are in your journey, I mean, if you're in phase three, right, where you're just really looking at these investments, these nest eggs to carry you into your retirement and or for legacy reasons, fine, but otherwise, I may argue the point in that I don't care that you have a 3% interest rate on an investment property, or whatever it may be, if it's sitting there idle and as long as it can cash flow, the true chances of those individuals of keeping that mortgage that they got in 2020, 2021, etc, at those ridiculously low interest rates and stroking 360 payments later to pay it to zero is a fraction of a percent right now, whether they're on the sidelines for something else, I don't know, but that debt, equity, I think, is hurting them more than a 3% interest rate is helping them.

Keith Weinhold 34:52

And a lot of times, the mindset of someone is, if they don't need to build wealth anymore, and they're older and they already built wealth, they don't care if they're loaned to value. Was down to zero, and they have it paid off, whereas someone that's in the wealth building phase probably wants to get more leverage. Yeah, Chaley at risk lending group, there you see so many applications come in, and especially since you're an investor centric lender, I like to ask you what trends you're seeing. What are people buying? What are people doing? Are they refinancing? Are they paying loans off? Are they trying to take out more credit? Are there any overall trends with investors that you see in there

Caeli Ridge 35:29

right now? I think the all in one is a clear winner there. The all in one, that first lien, HELOC, that you and I talked about, we broke my little corner of the internet with that one, that one is a front runner for sure, on the refinance side, specifically, we are seeing quite a bit more on the refi side of things, that equity is kind of just sitting there. So even though, if the on one isn't a good fit for them, I'm seeing investors that are willing to tap into that equity instead of just sitting around and waiting for them to potentially lose some equity if the housing market does start to take some decline. And then I would say, on the purchase transaction side, something that's kind of piqued my interest is the pad split. I'm looking at that more often where, for those that are not familiar, you can probably speak more to this, Keith, they're buying single family resident properties, even two to four unit properties, and a per bedroom basis, turning those into rental properties. And they're looking to be quite profitable. So I've got my eyes on that too.

Keith Weinhold 36:23

before we ask how we can learn more about you and what you do in there at Ridge Kayle. Is there any last thing that you'd like to share? Maybe a question I did not think about asking you, but should have.

Caeli Ridge 36:35

I would like to share with your listeners that if they are not working with a lender that focuses on their education and has that diversity of loan product that we have, that they're probably in the wrong support group. You need to be working with a lender that has a nationwide footprint and that has diversity of loan product to cover whatever methodology of real estate investing that you're looking for, and really puts a fine touch on the education of your qualifications and your goals as they relate to underwriters guidelines

Keith Weinhold 37:10

what we're talking about, and I know this through my own experience in dealing with Ridge, since I use them for my own loans myself, is sometimes Ridge might inform You that, hey, you can go and do this and make this deal now, but that's going to mess up this bigger thing 12 months down the road, whereas if you talk with an everyday sort of owner occupant mortgage company, oh, they're just not going to talk like that, because owner occupants, they might only buy every seven years, or something like that. And investors are different, and you need to have that foresight and look ahead. Caeli, this has been great, a really informative conversation about the pulse of the market. Tell us what products that you offer in there.

Caeli Ridge 37:50

Our menu is very, very diverse. I would say what. It's probably easier to describe what we don't offer. We do not have bear lot loans or land loans. We're not offering those right now. We do not have second lien HELOCs currently. We suspended that two years ago. But otherwise, guys, we're going to have everything that you're going to need. So just very quickly, I'll rattle off Fannie Freddie, okay, those golden tickets that we talk about, we've got DSCR loans, bank statement loans, asset depletion loans, ground up construction, short term bridge loans for fix and flip or fix and hold. We have our All In One that's my favorite first lien. HELOC, we have commercial loan products for commercial property and residential on a cross collateralization basis. So very, very robust in the loan product space.

Keith Weinhold 38:33

Caeli Ridge, it's been valuable as always. And then Ridge lending group.com, or your phone number

Caeli Ridge 38:39

855-747-4343, 855-74-RIDGE, , and then to reach us an email, if that's your better mechanism to contact us info@ridgelendinggroup.com

Keith Weinhold 38:50

that's been valuable as always. Thanks so much for coming back onto the show.

Caeli Ridge 38:53

Appreciate it. Keith,

Keith Weinhold 39:00

Yeah, terrific information from Chaley. As always, if you're enamored of borrowing tax free, like a billionaire, against your real estate, they sure can help you out with that and determine whether that's right. It doesn't mean that you always should, but if you have investment ideas for debt equity, and you're attentive to cash flows, run the numbers with them and see if it's worthwhile. As far as new purchases, we all know that soured affordability has made it especially tough for first time homebuyers, and there's more data out there that shows that tenant durations are historically long, longer than they usually are. Tenants are staying in places longer because they have to. Investor purchases have stayed strong, though investors have been buying about the same proportion of single family homes and making them rentals that they have historically and Redfin tells us that. The value of properties that investors have purchased is up more than 6% year over year, so investors are still buying and that makes sense. We're in this era where there's more uncertainty than usual, there's higher stock volatility than usual, and more people are sort of asking themselves, where would I get a better return than on income property, and where would my return be more stable today than in income property as well? If you work with Ridge lending group for a time, you're probably going to understand why I personally use them for my own loans. You'll notice that they really understand what investors need. Thanks to Caeli Ridge today and thank you for being here too. But as always, you weren't here for me. You were here for you until next week. I'm your host. Keith Weinhold, don't quit your Daydream.

Speaker 3 40:56

Keith Weinhold 41:20

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Mon, 12 May 2025

The Father of Reaganomics, David Stockman, joins us to explore the complex world of international trade and its impact on investors.

Key insights include:

Challenging conventional wisdom about trade policies
Understanding economic forces that drive investment opportunities
Gaining expert perspective on global economic trends

Stockman provides a candid analysis of current trade strategies, revealing:

The true drivers of economic competitiveness
Potential pitfalls of protectionist approaches
Critical insights for strategic investors

The episode cuts through political noise to offer clear, actionable economic intelligence for informed decision-making.

Smart investors look beyond headlines to understand the deeper economic forces shaping their financial future.

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552: Terrible—Home Sales Now Worst Since 2009

Complete episode transcript:

Automatically Transcribed With Otter.ai

Keith Weinhold 0:01

Welcome to GRE. I'm your host. Keith Weinhold, I sit down with a long time White House occupant who was the official economic advisor to an ex president. We get the real deal on tariffs and what they mean to you. Trump gets called out and the ominous sign about what's coming six months from now, today on, Get Rich Education.

Since 2014 the powerful get rich education podcast has created more passive income for people than nearly any other show in the world. This show teaches you how to earn strong returns from passive real estate investing in the best markets without losing your time being the flipper or landlord. Show Host Keith Weinhold writes for both Forbes and Rich Dad advisors and delivers a new show every week since 2014 there's been millions of listener downloads of 188 world nations. He has a list show guests include top selling personal finance author Robert Kiyosaki. Get rich education can be heard on every podcast platform, plus it has its own dedicated Apple and Android listener phone apps build wealth on the go with the get rich education podcast. Sign up now for the get rich education podcast, or visit get rich education.com

Corey Coates 1:14

You're listening to the show that has created more financial freedom than nearly any show in the world. This is get rich education.

Keith Weinhold 1:30

Welcome to GRE from Brookline, Massachusetts to Brooklyn, New York and across 188 nations worldwide. I'm Keith Weinhold, and you are listening to get rich education, just another shaved mammal behind this microphone here. I recently spent some time with the father of Reaganomics, David Stockman, in New York City, and sometimes an issue so critical surfaces that real estate investors need to step back and understand a broader force in the economy. Three weeks ago, here, I told you how the second and third way, real estate pays you. Cash flow and ROA are sourced by your tenants employment and the future of your tenants employment is influenced by tariffs and other policies of this presidential administration. This is going to affect rates of inflation and a whole lot of things. Now, an organization called the American Dialect Society, they actually name their word of the year, and this year, it is shaping up to be that word, tariff. In fact, Trump has described that word as the most beautiful word in the dictionary. And I think we all know by now that a tariff is an import tax that gets passed along to consumers when it comes to materials used in real estate construction that's going to affect future real estate prices. Well, several key ones so far were exempted from recent reciprocal tariffs, including steel, aluminum, lumber and copper exempted. Not everything was exempted, but those items and some others were but who knows if even they are going to stay that way. And now, when it comes to this topic. I think a lot of people want to make immediate overreactions in even posture like they're an expert in become an armchair economist, and I guess we all do a little of that, me included. But rather than being first on this and overreacting, let's let the policy which Trump called Liberation Day last month when he announced all these new tariffs. Let's let policy simmer a little and then bring in an expert that really knows what this means to the economy and real estate. So that's why I wanted to set up this discussion for your benefit with the father of Reaganomics and I today. In fact, what did Reagan himself say about tarrifs back in 1987 this is part of a clip that's gained new life this year. It's about a minute and a half.

Speaker 1 4:13

Throughout the world, there's a growing realization that the way to prosperity for all nations is rejecting protectionist legislation and promoting fair and free competition. Now there are sound historical reasons for this. For those of us who lived through the Great Depression, the memory of the suffering it caused is deep and searing, and today, many economic analysts and historians argue that high tariff legislation passed back in that period called the Smoot Hawley tariff greatly deepened the depression and prevented economic recovery. You see at first when someone says, Let's impose tariffs on foreign imports, it looks like they're doing the patriotic thing by protecting American products and jobs, and sometimes for a short while at work. Price, but only for a short time. What eventually occurs is first, home grown industries start relying on government protection in the form of high tariffs. They stop competing and stop making the innovative management and technological changes they need to succeed in world markets. And then, while all this is going on, something even worse occurs. High tariffs inevitably lead to retaliation by foreign countries and the triggering of fierce trade wars. The result is more and more tariffs, higher and higher trade barriers, and less and less competition, so soon, because of the prices made artificially high by tariffs that subsidize inefficiency and poor management, people stop buying. Then the worst happens, markets shrink and collapse, businesses and industry shut down, and millions of people lose their jobs.

Keith Weinhold 5:50

Now, from what I can tell you as a listener in the GRE audience, maybe you're split on what you think about tariffs. In fact, we ran an Instagram poll. It asks, generally speaking, tariffs are good or bad? Simply that 40% of you said good, 60% bad. Over on LinkedIn, it was different. 52% said they're good, 48% bad. So it's nearly half and half. And rather than me taking a side here, I like to bring up points that support both sides, and then let our distinguished guests talk, since he's the expert. For example, if a foreign nation wants to access the world's largest economy, the United States, does it make sense for them to pay a fee? I mean, it works that way in a lot of places, when you want to list a product on eBay or Amazon, you pay them a fee. You pay a percentage of the list price in order to get access to a ready marketplace of qualified buyers. All right. Well, that's one side, but then the other side is, come on, let's look at history. Where have tariffs ever worked like Where have they ever been a resounding, long term success? Do they have any history of a sustained, good track record? I generally like free trade. Then let's understand there's something even worse than a steep tariff. There are quotas which are imposed, import limits, trade limits, and then there are even all out import bans. What do terrorists mean to the economy that you are going to live in and that your tenants live in? It's the father of Reaganomics, and I on that straight ahead on Get Rich Education. I'm your host. Keith Weinhold.

you know what's crazy? Your bank is getting rich off of you. The average savings account pays less than 1% it's like laughable. Meanwhile, if your money isn't making at least 4% you're losing to inflation. That's why I started putting my own money into the FFI liquidity fund. It's super simple. Your cash can pull in up to 8% returns, and it compounds. It's not some high risk gamble like digital or AI stock trading. It's pretty low risk because they've got a 10 plus year track record of paying investors on time in full every time. I mean, I wouldn't be talking about it if I wasn't invested myself. You can invest as little as 25k and you keep earning until you decide you want your money back, no weird lock ups or anything like that. So if you're like me and tired of your liquid funds just sitting there doing nothing, check it out. Text, family to 66866, to learn about freedom, family investments, liquidity fund, again. Text family to 6686

Hey, you can get your mortgage loans at the same place where I get mine, at Ridge lending group and MLS, 42056, they provided our listeners with more loans than any provider in the entire nation because they specialize in income properties. They help you build a long term plan for growing your real estate empire with leverage. You can start your pre qualification and chat with President Caeli Ridge personally. Start Now while it's on your mind at Ridge lendinggroup.com, that's ridgelendinggroup.com.

Hey

Robert Helms 9:28

Hey everybody. It's Robert Helms of the real estate guys radio program. So glad you found Keith Weinhold in get rich education. Don't quit your Daydream.

Keith Weinhold 9:48

when it comes to White House economic policy like tariffs, taxes and inflation, don't you wish you could talk to someone that's often been inside the White House. Today, we are even better. He was the official advisor to an ex president on economic affairs, a Wall Street and Washington insider and Harvard grad. Today's guest is also a former two time congressman from Michigan. He's a prolific author, and he is none other than the man known as the father of Reaganomics. He was indeed President Ronald Reagan's budget advisor. He was first with us last year, but so much has happened since. So welcome back to the show. David Stockman,

David Stockman 10:26

very good to be with you, and you're certainly right about that. I think we're really in uncharted waters. Who could have predicted where we are today, and therefore it's very hard to know where we're heading, but you have to try to peer through the fog and all the uncertainty and the noise and the, you know, day to day ups and downs that's coming from this White House in a way that we've never seen before. And I started on Capitol Hill in 1970 so I've been watching this, you know, for more than a half century, actually, quite a while. And man, it's important to go through all this, but it's sort of uncharted waters.

Keith Weinhold 11:04

Sure, it's sort of like you wake up every day and all you do know is that you don't know. And David, when it comes to tariffs, I want to give you my idea, and then I want to ask you about what the tariff objective even is. Now, to be sure, no one is asking me how to advise the President. I'm an international real estate investor, but I do most of my business in the US, and I sure don't have international trade policy experience. It seems better to me, David, that rather than shocking the world with new tariffs that kick in right away, it would have been better to announce that tariffs begin in, say, 90 days, and then give nations space to negotiate before they kick in. That's my prevailing idea. My question to you is, what's the real objective here? What are terrorists proposed to do? Raise revenue, onshore companies merely a negotiation tactic? Is the objective? Something else?

David Stockman 12:00

Well, it might be all of the above, but I think it's important to start with a predicate, and that is that the problem is not high tariffs abroad or cheating by foreign competitors or exporters. There is a huge problem of a chronic trade deficit that is not benign, that does reflect a tremendous offshoring of our industrial economy, the loss of good, high paying industrial and manufacturing jobs. So the issue is an important one to address, but I have to say, very clearly, Trump is 100% wrong when he attempts to address it with tariffs, because foreign tariffs aren't the problem. Let me just give a couple of pieces of data on this, and I've been doing a lot of research on this. If you take the top 51 exporters to the United States, our top 51 trade partners, and this is Mexico and Canada and the entire EU and it's all the big far eastern China, Japan, South Korea, India, you know, all the rest of them. If you look at the and that's 90% of our trade, we have 2.9 trillion of imports coming in from all of those countries, and the tariff that we Levy, this is the United States, on those imports, is not high. It's higher than it was in the past, mainly because of what Trump did in the first term, but it's 3.9% now compared to bad times historically, decades and decades ago. That's relatively low. But here's the key point, if we look at the same 51 trading partners in terms of the tariffs they levy on our exports to China and to the EU and to Canada and Mexico and South Korea and all the rest of them. The tariff average, weighted average that they levy is 2.1% so let me restate that the average US tariff is about twice as high 4% around things as what our partners imposed 2% now the larger point is whether it's 4% or 2% doesn't make a better difference. That's not a problem when it comes to 33 trillion of world trade of which we are, you know, the United States engages in about five and a half trillion of that on a two way basis, import, export, in the nexus of a massive global trading system. So he's off base. He's wrong. The target is not high tariffs or unfair foreign trade. Now there are some people who say, Well, you're looking at monetary tariffs. So in other words, the import duty they levy on, you know, exports to South Korea or India or someplace like that, right? And that, the real issue, supposedly, is non tariff barriers. For instance, you know, some governments require you that all procurement by government agencies has to be sourced from a domestic supplier, which automatically shuts out us suppliers who might want that business. Well, the problem is we're the biggest violator of the non tariff barrier in that area. In other words, we have something like $900 billion worth of state, federal and local procurement that's under Buy America policies, which means EU, Mexico, Canada, China, none of them can compete. Now I mention that only as one example, because it's the kind of classic non tariff barrier, as opposed to import duty that some people point to, or they point to the fact that while foreign countries allegedly manipulate their currency, but you know the answer to that is that number one, overwhelming, no doubt about it, largest currency manipulator in the world, is the Federal Reserve. Okay, so it's kind of hard to say that there's a unfair trade problem in the world because of currency manipulation. And then there is, you know, an argument. Well, foreign governments subsidize their exporters. They subsidize their industrial companies, and therefore they can sell things cheaper. And therefore that's another example of unfair trade, but the biggest subsidizer of tech industry, and of a lot of other basic industry in the United States is is the Defense Department. You know, we have a trillion dollar defense budget, and we put massive amounts of dollars in, not only to buying, you know, hardware and weapons and so forth, but huge amounts of R and D that go into developing cutting edge technologies that have a lot of civilian applications that, in fact, we see all over the world. That's why we're doing this broadcast right now. The point is that problem is not high tariffs because they're only low tariffs. The problem is not unfair trade, because there's all kinds of minor little interferences with pure free markets, but both, everybody violates those one way or another due to domestic politics. But it's not a big deal. It doesn't make that big a difference. So therefore, why do we have a trillion dollar trade deficit in the most recent year, and a trade deficit of that magnitude that's been pretty continuous since the 1970s the answer is three or four blocks from the White House, not 10,000 miles away in Beijing or Tokyo. The answer is the Federal Reserve has in the ELLs building there in DC, not far from the White House. Yes, yes, right there, okay, the Eccles building the Fed has a huge, persistent pro inflation bias, sure. And as a result of that, it is pushed the wage levels and the price levels and the cost levels of the US economy steadily higher, and therefore we've become less and less competitive with practically everybody, but certainly a lower wage countries nearby, like Mexico or China, far away. And you know, there's, it's not that simple of just labor costs and wages, because, after all, if you source from China, you've got to ship things 10,000 miles. You've got supply chain management issues, you've got quality control issues, you've got timeliness issues. You have inventory carry costs, because there's a huge pipeline, and of course, you have the actual freight cost of bringing all those containers over. But nevertheless, when you factor all that in, our trade problem is our costs are too high, and that is a function of the pro inflation policies of the Fed. Give one example. Go back just to the period when the economy was beginning to recover, right after the great recession. And you know the crisis of 208209 and I started 210 unit labor costs in manufacturing in the United States. Just from 210 that's only 15 years, are up 55% that's unit labor costs. In other words, if you take wage costs and you subtract productivity growth in that 15 year period, the net wage costs less productivity growth, which is what economists call unit labor costs, are up 53% and as a result of that, we started, you know, maybe with a $15 wage difference between the United States and.China back in the late 1990s that wage gap today is $30 in other words, the fully loaded way at cost of average wages in the United States. And I'm talking about not just the pay envelope, but also the payroll taxes, the you know, charge for pension expense, health care and so forth. The whole fully loaded cost to an employer is about $40 an hour, and it's about $10 in the United States and it's about $10 an hour in China. Now that's the reason why we have a huge trade deficit with China, because of the massive cost difference, and it's not because anybody's cheating. Is because the Fed, in its wisdom, decided, well, you know, everybody will be okay. We're going to inflate the economy at 2% a year. That's their target. It's not like, well, we're trying to get low inflation or zero inflation, but we're not quite making it. No, they're proactive. Answer is, we've got to have 2% or the economy is not going to work. Well, well, 2% sounds well, that's a trivial little number. However, when you do it year after year, decade after decade, for a long period of time, and the other side is not inflating at the same rate, then in dollar terms, you have a problem, and that's where we are today. So this is important to understand, because it means the heart of the whole Trump economic policy, which is trying to bring manufacturing home, trying to bring industry back to the United States, a laudable objective is based on a false diagnosis of why this happened, and it is unleashed ball in the china shop, disruption of global economic flows in relationships that are going to cause unmitigated problems, even disaster in the US economy. Because it's too subtle, when you think about it, the world trade system just goods. Now, we've not even talking about services yet, or capital flows or financing on a short term basis. The World Trade in goods, merchandise, goods only is now 33 trillion. That is a hell of a lot of activity of parts and pieces and raw materials and finished products flowing in. You know, impossible to imagine directions back and forth between dozens and dozens of major economies and hundreds overall. And when you start, you step into that, not with a tiny little increase in the tariff. To give somebody a message. You know, if our tariffs are averaging 4% that's what I gave you a little while ago. And you raise tariffs to 20% maybe that's a message. But Trump didn't do that. He raised the tariff on China to 145% in other words, let's just take one example of a practical product, almost all the small appliances that you can find in Target or even a higher end retail stores United States or on Amazon are sourced in China because of this cost differential. I've been talking about this huge wage differential. So over the last 20, 25, years, little it went there now 80% of all small appliances are now sourced in China, and one, you know, good example would be a microwave oven, and a standard one with not a lot of fancy bells and whistles, is $100 now, when you put 145% tariff on the $100 landed microwave oven is now $245 someone's going to say, Gee, are we going to be able to sell microwaves at $245 they're not certain. I'm talking about a US importer. I'm talking about someone who sells microwaves on Amazon, for instance, or the buyers at Walmart or Target, or the rest of them, they're going to say, wait a minute, maybe we ought to hold off our orders until we see how this is going to shake out. And Trump says he's going to be negotiating, which is another whole issue that we'll get into. It's a lot of baloney. He has no idea what he's doing. Let's just face the facts about this. So if orders are suddenly cut back, and the flow that goes on day in and day out across the Pacific into the big ports in Long Beach in Los Angeles is suddenly disrupted, not in a small way, but in a big way, by 20, 30, 40, 50% six or seven months down the road, we're going to have empty shelves. We're going to have empty warehouses. We're going to have sellers who suddenly realize there's such a scarcity of products that have been hit by this blunderbuss of tariffs that we can double our price and get away with it.

Keith Weinhold 25:00

Okay, sure. I mean, ports are designed. Ports are set up for stadium flows, not for surges, and then walls and activity. That just really doesn't work.

David Stockman 25:08

And let me just get in that, because you're on a good point. In other words, there is a complicated supply line, supply chain, where, you know, stuff is handed off, one hand to another, ports in China, shipping companies, ports here, rail distribution systems, regional warehouses of you know, people like Walmart and so forth, that whole supply chain is going to be hit with a shock. Everything is going to be uncertain in terms of the formulas that everybody uses right now, you know that you sell 100 units a week, so you got to replace them at the sales rate, and you put your orders in, and know that it takes six weeks to get here, and all this other stuff, all of the common knowledge that's in the supply chain that makes it work, and the handoffs smooth and efficient From one player in the supply chain to the next, it's all going to be disrupted. But the one thing we're going to have is we're going to have shortages, we're going to have empty shelves, and we're going to have price which I'm sure that Trump is not going to start saying price gouging of a you know, right? But that's not price gouging. If you have a you know, go to Florida. We have a hurricane. Where we live in Florida and New York, we have a hurricane. All of a sudden the shelves are empty and there's no goods around, because everybody's been stocking up getting ready for the storm. And then all of a sudden, the politicians are yelling that somebody's price gouging, because they raised their prices in a market that was in disequilibrium. Well, that's not price gouging. That's supply and demand trying to find a new balance basic economics. You know, when the demand is 100 and the supply is 35 okay, but I'm kind of getting ahead here, but I think there's very good likelihood that there's going to be a human cry right before, you know, maybe in the fall or right before Christmas, about price gouging and Trump then saying, Well, I was elected to bring prices down and bring inflation under control. It's out of control because all of these foreigners raised their prices. And no, they did, and it was the tariff that did it, and all the people in the supply chain are trying to take advantage of the temporary disruptions. So I think people have to understand, and I can't say this, and I don't like to say it, because I certainly didn't think the other candidate in the last election had anything to offer in terms of dealing with our serious economic problems in this country. I'm talking about Harris. But the fact is, Donald Trump has had a wrong idea for the last 40 to 50 years of his adult life. In that core idea is that trade deficits are a sign of the other side cheating. They're a sign that you're being exploited or taken advantage of or ripped off, or it's not at all okay. Trade deficits are a consequence of cost differences between different jurisdictions, and to the extent that we've artificially, unnecessarily inflated our costs. We need to fix the problem at the source. He ought to clean house at the Federal Reserve. But the problem is, Trump wants lower interest rates when, in fact, the low interest rates created all the inflation that led to our loss of competitiveness and the huge trade deficits we have today. So to summarize, it is important to understand, do not have faith in Trump's promise that we're going to have a golden age of economic prosperity. We are going to have a economic disaster, and it's a unforced error. It's self inflicted, and it's the result of the wrong fundamental idea of one guy who's in the oval office right now throwing his considerable weight around and pushing the economy into upheaval that really is totally unnecessary. He should have done what he was elected to do, and Matt's work on getting production up and costs down, that's not going to be solved with tariffs. David, I have another important point to bring up. But before we do just quickly, are those two to 4% tariffs you mentioned earlier. Those are the tariff levels pre Trump second term correct.

We could clarify that those are for the year 2023 that was the latest full year data that we have with great deal of granularity.

Keith Weinhold 29:56

The point I want to bring up is there any history? That tariffs actually work. Some people cite the Smoot Hawley Tariff Act from the 1930s and that it drove us deeper into the Great Depression. And David, on the one hand, when we think about, do tariffs actually work? If Indonesia can make shoes for us for $11 why would we want to onshore an activity like that? That is a good deal for us. And then, on the other hand, you have someone like Nvidia, the world's leading semiconductor company, they announced plans to produce some of their AI supercomputers entirely on American soil for the first time recently. And you have some other companies that have made similar announcements. So that's a small shred of evidence that tariffs could work. But my question is, historically, do tariffs actually work?

David Stockman 30:44

That's a great question, and there's a huge history. And you can go back all the way the 19th century, where Donald Trump seems to be preoccupied, but what he fails to recognize is that they worked in the 19th century because they were revenue tariffs. It wasn't an effort to, like, bring jobs back to America. We were booming at the time. Jobs were coming to America, not leaving, and it was the federal government's main source of revenue. Because, as you know, prior to 1913 there was no income tax, right? So that was one thing. Okay, then when we got into the 20th century and host World War Two, it became obvious to people that the whole idea of comparative advantage, going all the way back to Adam Smith, and that enhanced a global trade where people could specialize in whatever their more competitive advantage is, was a Good thing. And so we had round after round of negotiations after World War Two that reduced tariff levels steadily, year by year, decade by decade. So by the time we got to the 1990s when China, then, you know, arose from the disaster of Mao and Mr. Dang took over and created all the export factories and said, It's glorious to be rich and all these things is we got red capitalism. But if we start in the 1990s the average tariff worldwide, now this is weighted average on all goods that are bought and sold or imported and exported, was about 9% and there were have been various free trade deals done since then. For instance, we had NAFTA, and the tariffs on Mexico and Canada and the United States went to zero. We had a free trade deal in 212 with South Korea. This never comes up, but the tariff on South Korean goods coming the US is zero. The tariff on us, exports going to South Korea is zero because we have a free trade agreement, and it's worked out pretty well with South Korea. Now we're not the only ones doing this. Countries all over the world. The EU is a total free trade zone in economy almost as big as the United States that used to have tariff levels between countries. Now it's one big free trade zone. So if you take the entire world economy, that 9% weighted average tariff of the early 90s, which was down from maybe 2025, 30, pre World War Two in this Smoot Hawley era, was down to 2.25% by the time that Donald Trump took office, the first time around in 2017 now 2.25% is really a rounding error. It's hardly when you have $33 trillion worth of goods moving around, you know, container ships and bulk carriers and so forth all around the world, and air freight and the rest of it, rail. 2% tariff is not any kind of big deal, as I say in some of the things I write, it's not a hill of beans. So somehow, though 45 years ago, Trump got the idea that tariffs were causing a problem and that we had trade deficits, not because our costs were going up owing to bad monetary policy, but because the other guy was cheating. Remember, this is Trump's whole view of the world. It's a zero sum game. I win, you lose, and if I'm not winning, is because you're cheating. Okay? In other words, I'm inherently going to win. America's inherently going to win unless the other guy is cheating. Now, Trump sees the world the same way that I think he looked at electrical and plumbing contractors in the Bronx, you know, in the 1980s and 1990s when he was developing his various Real Estate projects. These are pretty rough and tumble guys. It's a wild, easy way to make a living. So there's a lot of, you know, there's a lot of pretty rough baseball that's played that mentality that the other guy is always trying to screw me, the other guy's always cheating, the other guy's preventing me from winning, is, is his basic mentality. And it's not Applicable. It's not useful at all to try to understand the global economy. Try to understand why America's $29 trillion economy is not chugging along as strongly and as productively as it should be, why real wages are not making the gains that workers should be experiencing and so forth. So he ought to get out of this whole trade, tariff trade war thing, which he started, I don't know how he does, it's a little late, and focus on the problems on the home front. In other words, our trade problem has been caused by too much spending, too much borrowing, too much money printing on the banks of the Potomac. It's not basically caused in Beijing or Tokyo or Seoul or even Brussels, the European Union. And we need to get back to the basic and the real culprit, which is the Federal Reserve and its current chairman, Paul, if he wants to attack somebody, go after the Fed. Go after Paul. But ought to give them a mandate to bring inflation to zero and to stop fooling around with everything else and to stop monetizing the public debt that is buying government debt, take care of your own backyard first before you start taking, yeah, sure, yeah, exactly. You know, I've been in this for a long time. I start, as I said, I started on Capitol Hill. There have been a lot of protectionist politicians, but they always argued free trade is good, but it has to be fair trade. And you know, we have this example in our steel industry, for instance, where we producers abroad are competing unfairly for one reason or another. But the point I'm getting to is they always said this is an exceptional case. Normally we would go for free trade, but we got to have protection here. We got to have a temporary quota. Even when I was in the Reagan administration, we had a big argument about voluntary quotas on Japanese car exports, and I was totally against it. I thought the US industry needed to get its act together, get its costs down. Needed to get the UAW under control, because it had pushed wages, you know, way, way, way too high terms of total cost. But they argued, yeah, well, you're right, but we have to have 10 years in order to allow things to be improved and adjusted and catch up. So this is only temporary. This is just this. Yes, this is protectionism, but it's temporary. It's expedient that we can avoid and so therefore we'll make an exception. But there is no one, and most of these people were, you know, in the payroll of the unions, or they were congressmen from south to South Carolina going to bad for the textile industry, or congressman from Ohio going to bat for the steel industry, whatever, but there was no one who ever came along and said tariffs are big, beautiful things, and we need to have permanent high tariffs, because that's the way we're going to get prosperity back in United States. It's a dumb idea. It's wrong. It's disproven by history and people. Even though Trump has done a lot of things that I like you know, he's got rid of dei he's got rid of all of this green energy, climate crisis nonsense, all of that that he's done is to the good when you come to this basic question, how do we get prosperity in America? The answer is, through free market capitalism, by getting the government out of the way, by balancing the budget and by telling the Fed not to, you know, inflate the economy to the disadvantage that it has today. That's how you get there. And Trump is not a real Republican. Trump is basically what I call a status. He's for big government, right wing status. Okay, there's left wing, Marxist status, then there's right wing status. But you know, all of this tariff business is going to create so much corruption that it's almost impossible to imagine, because every day there's someone down there, right now, I can guarantee it at the, you know, treasury department or at Commerce department saying, but we got special circumstances here in terms of the parts that we're making for aircraft that get assembled in South Korea or something, and we need special relief. Yes, every industry you're doing is putting in for everybody's going to be there the lobby. This is the greatest dream that the Washington lobbyist community ever had. Trump is literally saying he put this reciprocal tariff. You saw the whole schedule. That he had on that easel in the White House on April 2, immigration day. It was called Liberation Day. I called it Demolition Derby Day. There was a reciprocal tariff for every single country in the world based on a phony formula that said, if we have $100 million deficit with somebody, half of that was caused by cheating. So we're going to put a tariff in place closes half of the difference. I mean, just nonsense, Schoolboy idiocy. Now it is. I mean, I know everybody said, Oh, isn't it great? We've finally got rid of the bad guys, Biden, he's terrible, and the Democrats, I agree with all that, but we replaced one set of numb skulls with another set. Unfortunately, Republicans know better, but they're so intimidated, apparently buffaloed by Trump at the moment, that they're going along with this. But they know you don't put 145%tariff on anything. I mean, it's just nuts. David, I feel like you're telling us what you really think and absolutely love that.

Keith Weinhold 41:04

Interestingly, there is a Ronald Reagan clip about tariffs out there in a speech that he gave from Camp David, and it's something that's really had new life lately. In fact, we played the audio of that clip before you came onto the show today, Reagan said that he didn't like tariffs and that they hurt every American worker and consumer as Reagan's economic advisor in the White House. Did you advise him on that?

David Stockman 41:27

Yes, I did. And also I can give you a little anecdote that I think people will find interesting. Yeah, the one time that he deviated in a big way from his free trade commitments was when he put the voluntary export quota on the Japanese auto industry. That was big. I don't remember the exact number, but I think it said they couldn't export more than 1.2 million cars a year, or something like that the United States. And the number was supposed to adjust over time, but we had huge debates in the Cabinet Room about those things, and at the end of the day, here's what he said. He said, You know, I've always been for open trade, free trade. I've always felt it has to be fair trade. But, you know, in this case, the Japanese industry came to us and asked for voluntary quotas, so I didn't put up a trade barrier. I'm only accommodating their request. Well, the Japanese did come to him and ask. They did, but only when they were put up to it by the protectionists in the Reagan administration who, on this took them on the side, you know, their negotiators and maybe their foreign minister. I can't remember exactly who commerce secretary and said, If you don't ask for voluntary quotas, we're going to unleash Capitol Hill and you're going to get a real nasty wall put up against your car. So what will it be? Do you want to front for voluntary quotas? Are we going to unleash Congress? So they came to Reagan and said they were the Japanese industry said they're recommending that he impose voluntary restraints on auto exports. That was just a ruse. He wasn't naive, but he believed what you told him. He believed that everybody was honest like he was, and so he didn't understand that the Japanese industry that was brought to meet with him in the Oval Office had been put up to, it been threatened with, you know, something far worse, mandatory quote is imposed by Congress. But anyway, it's a little anecdote. What happened? On the other hand, he continued to articulate the case for small government sound money. We had deficit problems, but he always wanted a balanced budget. It was just hard to get there politically. And he believed that capitalism produces prosperity if you let capitalism work and keep the government out of the marketplace. And there is no bigger form of intervention and meddling and disruption in the capitalist system, in the free market, in the marketplace, than quotas on every product in every country at different levels. They're going to have 150 different countries negotiating bilaterally deals with the United States. That's the first thing that's ridiculous. They can't happen. The second thing is they're going to come up with deals that don't amount to a hill of beans, but they'll say, we have a deal. The White House will claim victory. Let me just give one example. As we know, one of the big things that Trump did in the first administration was he renegotiated NAFTA. And NAFTA was the free trade agreement between Mexico, Canada, United States. Before he started in 2017 the trade deficit of the US with Mexico and Canada combined with 65 billion. And he said, That's too big, and we got to fix NAFTA. We have got to rebalance the provisions so that the US comes out, not on the short end of the stick 65 billion. So they negotiated for about a year and a half, they announced a new deal, which he then renamed the United States, Mexico, Canada agreement, usmca, and, you know, made a big noise about it, but it was the same deal with the new name. They didn't change more than 2% of the underlying machinery and structure, semantics. Well now, so now we fast forward to 2024 so the usmca Trump's pride and joy, his the kind of deal that he says he's going to seek with every country in the world is now four years into effect. And what is the trade deficit with Canada and Mexico today, it's 230 5 billion okay? It's four times higher now than it was then when he put it in place. Why? Because we have a huge trade deficit with Mexico. Why because, you know, average wages there are less than $10 an hour, and they're $40 an hour here. That's why it has nothing to do with a bad trade deal. It has to do with cost differences.

Keith Weinhold 46:27

David, this has been great, and as we're winding down here, we have a lot of real estate investor listeners tell us what this administration's overall policies, not just tariffs, but overall policies, mean for future employment, and then tell us about your highly regarded contra corner newsletter.

David Stockman 46:45

Well, those are that's a big question. I think it doesn't mean good, because if they were really trying to get America back on track our economy, they would be fighting inflation tooth and nail to get it down to zero. They would be working day and night to implement what Musk came up with in the doge that is big spending cuts and balancing the budget. They're not doing that. They're letting all these announcements being made, but they're not actually cutting any spending. They would not be attempting to impose this huge apparatus of tariffs on the US economy, but they're not doing that. So I'm not confident we were going in the wrong direction under Biden, for sure, and we're going in an even worse direction right now under Trump. So that's the first thing. The second thing is, I put out a daily newsletter called David stockman's Country corner. You can yes signers on the internet, but this is what we write about every day, and I say A plague on both their houses, the Democrats, the Republicans. They're all, in many ways, just trying to justify government meddling, government spending, government borrowing, government money printing, when we would do a lot better if we went in the opposite direction, sound money, balanced budgets, free markets and so forth, so. And in the process, I'm not partisan. You know, I was a Republican congressman. I was a budget director of the Reagan administration. I have been more on the Republican side, obviously, over my career than the Democrats, but now I realize that both parties are part of the problem, and I call it the uni party when push comes to shove, the uni party has basically been for a lot of wars abroad and a lot of debt at home, and a lot of meddling in the economy That was unnecessary. So if you look at what I write every day, it tries to help people see through the pretenses and the errors of the unit party, Democrats and Republicans. And in the present time, I have to focus on Trump, because Trump is making all the noise.

Keith Weinhold 48:59

100% Yes, it sure has kept life and the news cycle exciting, whether someone likes that news or not. Well, David, this has been great. In fact, it sounds a lot like what Reagan might have told me, perhaps because you were a chief economic informant for him, smaller government, letting the free trade flow and lower inflation. Be sure to check out David stockman's contra corner newsletter if you like what we've been talking about today, just like it was last year, David, it's been a real pleasure having you on GRE today.

David Stockman 49:30

Well, thank you very much. And these are important issues, and we've got to stay on top of them.

Keith Weinhold 49:41

Oh, yeah. Well, David Stockman truly no mincing words. He doesn't like tariffs. In summary, telling GRE listeners that the problem with trade imbalances is inflation attack that instead quell inflation, don't impose tariffs. A lot of developing nations and China have distinct advantages over manufacturing in the United States, besides having the trained labor and all the factories and systems in place, think about how many of these nations have built in lower costs they don't have to deal with these regulatory agencies, no EPA, no OSHA, and not even a minimum wage law to have to comply with. And here in the US get this, 80% of American workers agree that the US would benefit from more manufacturing jobs, but almost 75% disagree that they would personally be better off working in a factory themselves. That's according to a joint Cato Institute in YouGov survey. It's sort of like how last century, Americans lamented the demise of the family farm, yeah, but yet, they sure didn't want to work on a farm themselves. Now there are some types of manufacturing, like perhaps pharmaceuticals or computer chips that could likely be onshore, because those items are high value items. Their value can exceed the cost of being produced in the USA, but a lot of these factory goods, not again. If these topics interest you do a search for David stockman's contra corner, or you can directly visit David stockman's contra corner.com. Big thanks to the father of Reaganomics, David Stockman on the show this week. As for next week, we're back more toward the center of real estate investing. Until then, I'm your host. Keith Weinhold, don't quit your Daydream. Y

Unknown Speaker 51:42

Keith Weinhold 52:02

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Mon, 5 May 2025

In this power-packed episode, Keith delivers a masterclass on the current real estate landscape, blending personal insights with market-changing trends. From the nuanced world of home flooring to the pulse of national housing markets, Keith breaks down complex real estate dynamics into actionable intelligence.

The episode reveals a market at a critical inflection point: declining home sales, shifting apartment dynamics, and emerging investment opportunities. Keith provides listeners with a strategic roadmap to navigate these changes, emphasizing the importance of adaptability and informed decision-making.

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551: Is Florida Real Estate Doomed?

Complete episode transcript:

Automatically Transcribed With Otter.ai

Keith Weinhold 0:00

Keith, welcome to GRE. I'm your host. Keith Weinhold, there's been a real estate tragedy in my family. Then this past month, national home sales have plummeted to their worst level since 2009 then something is happening in the market for apartment buildings that shocked everybody and more all today on get rich education.

Speaker 1 0:24

Since 2014 the powerful get rich education podcast has created more passive income for people than nearly any other show in the world. This show teaches you how to earn strong returns from passive real estate investing in the best markets without losing your time being a flipper or landlord. Show Host Keith Weinhold writes for both Forbes and Rich Dad advisors, and delivers a new show every week. Since 2014 there's been millions of listener downloads of 188 world nations. He has a list show guessing the top selling personal finance author Robert Kiyosaki, get rich education can be heard on every podcast platform, plus it has its own dedicated Apple and Android listener phone apps build wealth on the go with the get rich education podcast, sign up now for the get rich education podcast, or visit get rich education.com

Speaker 2 1:09

You're listening to the show that has created more financial freedom than nearly any show in the world. This is get rich education.

Keith Weinhold 1:25

welcome to GRE from Montreal, Quebec to Montrose, Michigan and across 188 nations worldwide. I'm Keith Weinhold, and you are back inside get rich education here in our 11th year, you're listening to one of America's longest running the most listened to shows on real estate investing, indeed, the 552nd consecutive week before we delve into the sad topic of terrible national home sales, the worst since 2009 which is a serious topic, first, a bit More of a light hearted topic, a real estate tragedy of sorts, has taken place inside my family, right inside my parents home, the same home that I grew up in. And you know, it's been a while since I had a good rant in an episode. So before we get to our core content today, my parents just replaced the nice, plush, warm, soft, inviting wall to wall carpets in both of their living rooms with laminate, hardwood floor. Oh no, this is disastrous. I mean, this is an abject property atrocity right in the home that I grew up in. Now, if you're a longtime listener, you know what I'm talking about. If you're newer here, it's probably been a couple years since I mentioned it. You know, everyone has their own quirks and idiosyncrasies, like you have certain ways of thinking about some things in your life, where you just know that you're in the minority of society with how you behave with that thing. Yeah, there are some things that you're counter cultural on. It's part of your unique personality, and it's what makes you you, well, one of my real estate idiosyncrasies and unorthodoxies is that I love deep, plush carpet, not hardwood floor, and hey, I don't expect you to agree with me on this. It's what makes me different. Now we'll talk about the flooring that you choose to use in your rental units in a moment and compare their prices and when you might want to use those things and when you don't. But we're just talking about home here, the flooring that you live on your primary residence. Why would anyone replace carpeting with hardwood, plank flooring? It is uninviting. It is cold, hard, and it even transfers noise more than quiet, comfortable, plush carpeting. And yes, hardwood floors can be heated. And some homeowners do that. They use what are called radiant heating systems, and they are installed beneath the floor, and these systems use either electric cables or sometimes mats or hydronic tubing, which are pipes filled with hot water in order to radiate that heat upwards into the floor. Now, something like that is what you'd be more likely to do in your own home, and not a rental unit, but even if you do that, hard floors are still, well, hard and noisier, like I just don't get it deep, plush carpet is superior. I'm not talking about the shag carpet that was popular 50 years ago, just plush carpet that hit its peak. In the 1990s Oh yes, that is the stuff I'm telling you. I mean plush carpet. That is the stuff that turns a house into a home. Well, my parents did just the opposite. They turned their home back into a house. Oh, dear. And, hey, it's their home. They can do whatever they want. Now, what are the main reasons that I hear about why people prefer laminate, hardwood flooring or luxury vinyl plank flooring over carpeting? That's what the majority of people want to do, and that's not what I want. Well, one reason, and this is the main reason that my parents did it, is that it looks nicer. In their opinion, looks nicer. I don't get it at all. I mean, even most cheap $1,000 apartments have been using like hardwood, plank flooring for close to 25 years now, there's nothing special about the way that it looks. Most of it anyway, some of it can look pretty cool. Now, some people want the hardwood because, well, they say that it's easier to clean. Easy to clean. Why in the world would you have trouble keeping your own home clean? I mean, if there's any space in the world that you keep clean, it is your humble abode. Now I know that it's easier for me to say that because I don't own any pets and still don't have kids, maybe you do replacing carpet for hard flooring is just an unspeakable act. What an uncalled for abhorrence, a repugnance. Other reasons that people say they prefer hardwood or vinyl plank over carpet is that it is allergy friendly. All right. Well, I don't have any trouble with allergies. But here's the thing that's even more confounding, most people that install a hard flooring. Well, the next thing that they do, and this is exactly what my mom and dad say that they're going to do next now that they put the hardwood floor in, is find some area rugs and cover it up so people put carpet on top of the hardwood floor anyway, but then yet, that carpet cannot be plush and padded underneath like real Carpet would be, because it's just like a piece that's rolled out, plus it cancels out, then all these pet friendly and allergy free benefits, plus it might be even harder to clean, because now you got to clean both the carpet and the edges of the room where the stupid hardwood flooring is showing I mean, it makes zero sense, so this just all compounds how I am confounded on how almost everybody in the world, it seems they want hardwood floor. I feel like I'm the only person in the world sticking up for carpeting. I do not expect you to agree with me here. It is just my, I guess, oddball preference. I also do a lot of exercises down on the floor. That's where the best high intensity interval training workouts take place. Down on the floor. Plush carpet is best for that too. Oh, the myriad reasons that carpet is superior, I'll tell you. Well, I'll next be staying at my parents place in two months, as I'll spend a lot of July there, and that's when I will first be witness to this transgression, this incomprehensible abomination. I mean, it is almost malfeasance.

The reason that I care more about this than most sons of parents would is that my parents have lived in the same home since I was age one. I have a lot of memories there, and when I visit my parents in rural upstate Pennsylvania, I sleep in the same exact bedroom that I have since age one. Really special continuity there. What's more important than the flooring changing in the two living rooms is that, like I've told you before, I won the parent lottery, I did not have an affluent upbringing, but my brother and I had a top 1% childhood anyway, because we have two married, committed parents that are still together, still healthy and loved us. I phone my parents at least weekly, and I send them messages all the time. I guess it's a good time to think about that as this is the last episode before Mother's Day, and if you did not win the parent lottery, like I did in the way that I just described. Well, the good news is that you can do something about it. You can provide that same stable, nurturing environment to your children, and that way, they will win the parent lottery. Now, when it comes to. My rental properties, I do have hardwood flooring virtually everywhere and in every property, from single family rentals up to apartment buildings, because I don't have to live on it now, I probably do have some bedrooms in those rentals where there's carpeting, yeah, I mean hard floors that makes sense for the durability in a rental. I mean, with rentals, you might have to replace the carpet every three to five years. That is cost prohibitive. So for real estate investing, hardwood flooring, which, again, it's really a trend that became widespread in America about 25 years ago. I mean, that trend was really good for real estate investors. Tenants actually prefer this intolerable condition, perhaps much like you do. Now let me talk about five main types of flooring, how much they cost per square foot, and where you might want to use different flooring types in different situations, as we've already established. For me, it is carpet, carpet, carpet, wall to wall, everywhere, except for kitchens, bathrooms and maybe the laundry room. Seriously, though, for you and how you want to think about this and these prices include the total for both the material and the installation is for hardwood plank flooring, which is that atrocity that my parents committed. Expect to pay about $25 per square foot. And of course, all these costs are going to vary based on the wood species, the finish and the part of the world that you're in for LVP, luxury vinyl plank that's about $8 installed. LVP is a good choice because it mimics the hardwood esthetics. It's waterproof, and as you can see there, its cost is less than half of that of hardwood plank. So LVP can be a good choice for bathrooms and maybe a kitchen, and though the name luxury might be cheapened or diluted somewhat in that name, LVP, it's a bit over named. I suppose it's that that name is given to help distinguish it from vinyl flooring. Because when you hear the term vinyl flooring, what do you think of you think of sheets, something that comes in a roll in sheet vinyl only costs maybe about $5 installed. And then carpeting installed, my favorite at home, but not in rentals that costs about $6 per square foot. And then the last major flooring type is tile, and the cost of tile is really all over the place because of its different material types. Tile can be made of so many things, going from cheapest to most expensive ceramic. That's about $20 per square foot. Again, this is the cost installed for both the materials and the time it takes to install it, porcelain, 20 to 25 natural stone tile can be 40 bucks or more, and then glass tile can be a little more expensive than that, yet. So those are the approximate prices for your flooring, what you can expect to pay because, of course, plank flooring and tile, it doesn't have to be replaced as often as carpet and sheet vinyl. That's something to keep in mind when you think about those prices. But yeah, I have bought apartment buildings before, where, when I bought it, every unit was carpeted, and then as each tenant moved out, one by one, I would have my property managers contractor replace it with hard plank flooring, the radiant heat that you'd place beneath hard flooring that I described earlier, that is cost prohibitive to put in a long term rental in almost every case, that's something you'd only want to do in your own home, or maybe, just maybe a luxury short term rental in a cold climate, Like a ski resort town or something like that. So yes, you have now learned about one of my odd quirks, and you've learned about flooring types. Another of my idiosyncrasies is my preference for back scratching rather than massages. But that has nothing to do with real estate, and we've got more important topics to move on to heck. Come on, though, you might have some weird quirks, even more weird than mine. In fact, maybe real estate investors in general have more quirks than mainstream society. Because, you know, real estate investing is a little countercultural itself, right? We own things that pay us to own it every month with mainstream society and 401, KS, you have to pay it with every paycheck. Now. Who in the heck would do that?

The title of this week's episode has to do with the fact that spring existing home sales are now at their worst level since two. 2009 the worst in all that time. Now, and understand when I say home sales, that means the volume of sales, the number of transactions. We're not talking about the prices now, the outlook for home prices is also less rosy now as well. I'll get to that shortly. But why are the number of property transactions at their lowest level in 16 years like this? Let's listen in to Diana Olick at CNBC. She's talking about March, but that's the newest month reported. You got to remember that real estate stats run in arrears more so than most essay classes. This report is a real bellwether for the spring housing market and how this year could turn out. This is a little over a minute, and then I'll be back to comment.

We also have some housing data just cross the tape. Diana olik Has that for us. Diana, Well, David, existing home sales in March fell a much wider than expected, 5.9% from February to a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 4.0 2 million units sales down 2.4% from March of last year, and that is the slowest March sales pace since 2009 the Great Recession. Now remember, this count is based on closing, so its contracts likely signed in January and February, when mortgage rates were over 7% but it was before the market volatility of April, supply is rising fast, 1.3 3 million units for sale at the end of March, up nearly 20% from the year before. That makes a four month supply, which is still on the lean side. Six months is considered a balanced market. More inventory and slower sales are starting to put the chill on prices. The median price of an existing home sold in March was $403,700 that's still an all time high for the month, but it's only up 2.7% from last March, and that annual comparison is shrinking. First time, buyers made up 32% of the market, the same as last year, they should be around 40% all cash dropped to 26% from 28th the year before, but investors house steady at 15% of sales. Sarah, all right, have a bad combo, weaker sales, higher prices. Diana, thank you very much. Diana Olek.

okay, we just learned that the latest month shows the slowest spring housing market for that month since 2009 and that the supply of available homes is up 20% since last year. All right? Well, if the supply of homes is up, then why is the volume of sales down? Well, it's the same reasons that we've had for a couple years soured affordability and the ongoing lock in effect, and that soured affordability is just more set in I hope you caught it. Note that this 16 year low in sales volume is for existing homes, okay, brand new home sales are healthier. The nation is still undersupplied of housing Overall, though, with four months of supply, of course, six months is that balance point. Now, the worst news here, with this low sales volume is not affecting the homeowner or the investor. It is affecting the renter somewhat more, because they're having to stay as renters. But it's really tough. Just horribly bad news for people that are in the business of home sales, like realtors and other agents. Mortgage lenders are losing business too. So are title insurers, moving truck companies, furniture companies, and for those consumers in the market to buy and sell homes. It's actually troublesome news for society. Less residential mobility means less economic mobility and more people stuck in place. And how are we going to get Americans moving again? It is lower mortgage rates. It's probably not going to come from a substantial lowering of prices. Prices keep rising, as you heard in that clip, up 2.7% year over year, but as we look out in future months, you know, I can feel it. Price growth seems to be flattening out. Zillow and some other agencies have lowered their home price appreciation forecast for the year, I really keep up on this stuff in research, in my estimate is that the consensus is that there will be zero to 2% home price growth this year. That's not me saying that. That's me amalgamating what others say, and they don't always get it right, and this year still has a long way to go, but you know, there is just this sort of general malaise in the real estate market where there's not a lot of activity for primary residence buyers. In that clip, you heard that investor purchases are steady, constituting 15, one 5% Of home purchases, just like they did in the previous period. So that's what a low sales volume means, and that's who is affected. It is not a vibrant market out there. I still don't see anything on the horizon that could make home prices jump as much as 10% this year, not even substantially lower mortgage rates could do that. In my opinion, tariffs impact to construction costs over the next few months. You know, it's probably quite a bit less than you think. The prevailing current view among the number of developers for now is that construction costs will increase between one and 3% on wood frame builds. And wood frame builds that represents the vast majority of apartment and build to rent projects and now that one to 3% that's by no means immaterial, but it's also not some crazy surge like some headlines have suggested. So as you're out there listening to media reports on the housing market, as you can see, you've got to listen closely to what you're being told. The volume of sales and the median price are two very different things, and they're both moving in different directions, sales down, price up, also the existing home market and the new build home market are, of course, different, but you got to listen closely sometimes in order to pick that up. That also helps to be attentive to if you hear that new build prices are falling, you got to think about what that means, because in recent years, builders have responded to weak affordability by building smaller homes to try to make them more affordable, so they might be selling for actually more money on a square footage basis, even though their price is lower, it's because the homes are smaller. And then another thing is, when you hear that sellers are cutting prices, be attentive to what that really means. For example, say that median home values in an area are 450k and if a seller advertises a perfectly median home for 475k therefore it's a little overpriced, and say it doesn't sell in a month, and then they drop the price to 460 and sell it for that well, then what they've done is that they cut the price, yet at the same time, they moved the median price up from 450 to 460 so despite a price cut, that was about a 2% gain in sale price there in That example, that is how a price cut results in moving up in areas median price. So there's a lot to be attentive to when you look at news like that. As volatile as stocks have been lately, a lot of people are grateful to have their dollars invested in really stable real estate. When Stocks are volatile, the rent just keeps coming in. In fact, in a let's look at history over hunch's vein, when stocks crash, which all define as a loss of 20% or more, what happens to home prices now, a while ago, here on the show, I discussed what historically happens with home prices during recessions. But this is different. This is what happens during stock market crashes, because the stock market is not the economy. Aside from the one bad mortgage blow up of a housing market induced economic recession from 2008 to 2010 which was bad. Home prices do not go down when the stock market crashes. In fact, real estate prices usually rise when stocks plunge hard. Let's look at the five other times that this has happened since 1980 and we'll take the S, p5, 100 index high to its low. All right, in november of 1980 the S P was at 135 points. And doesn't it sound funny to say that that sounds like a ridiculously small number? Yes, the S P was at 135 points. Then by August of 1982 almost two years later, it tanked to 109 during that time, home prices went up 7.2% then in the late 80s, it was August of 1987 the S P was at 329. In November of that year, it fell to 245, I mean, that was a massive stock drop of almost 35% in just about three months, the result, home prices went down 1.7% but that happens almost every year, from summer to late autumn. In August of 2000 the S P was at 1485 by February of 03 it went down to 803 37 I mean, that was a major stock crash. During that time, home prices went up 11 and a half percent, and then we got into COVID. Times, March of 2020, 3277 was the level April of 2020, just a month later, down to 2653 home prices went up 2.1% during that month. And then finally, December of 2021, 4675 October of 2022, 3726 that was a big stock market drawdown during that time, home prices went up 5.3% so there you go. The stable nature of real estate is something that's a really valuable attribute during massive stock market drops. And I think there are a lot of people that don't realize that since World War Two, home prices have only fallen significantly one time, and it was that awful period around 2008 now, in fact, you know something interesting related to this, last month, I took that cog railway tour that goes to the top of Pikes Peak in Colorado. You might have taken that train before. It's pretty popular. It's a nice way to spend an afternoon. Well, on that cog railway tour, I got talking to a passenger. He was there with his wife and family, and this was an intelligent, professional guy. He worked in the VE printing space, so he was pretty interesting to talk to. I asked him about that. And this guy, this passenger on the train, he asked me about real estate, once he knew that that's my field. He said the strangest thing to me, but I think a lot of people think this way. He asked me, don't real estate prices have a 10 year cycle? They have a price correction and go down every 10 years, and then the values start going back up again. What I didn't laugh in this guy sure wasn't stupid. I mean, hey, he's in the 3d printing space, and maybe I have some misconceptions about his field too. But it's almost as unlikely that home prices will fall appreciably than that grocery store prices would fall significantly. Both things really unlikely. I don't know how people think things like this.

To summarize what you just learned in this segment, hardwood flooring in the living room is an abomination of inhumane proportions. Existing home sales volume hit low levels not seen since 2009 home prices are still rising, but the pace of that growth is slowing, and when the stock market takes a big hit, real estate historically performs well most of the time. We're talking about residential real estate in the one to four unit space so far coming up a trend in the larger apartment building world that shocked a lot of experts. That's next. I'm Keith Weinhold. You're listening to get rich education.

Hey, you can get your mortgage loans at the same place where I get mine at Ridge lending group and MLS, 42056, they provided our listeners with more loans than any provider in the entire nation because they specialize in income properties. They help you build a long term plan for growing your real estate empire with leverage. You can start your pre qualification and chat with President Caeli Ridge personally. Start now while it's on your mind at Ridge lendinggroup.com, that's Ridge lendinggroup.com.

Speaker 3 29:53

This is the king of commercial real estate, Dolph de Roos. Listen to get rich education with Keith Weinhold. And don't Quit your Daydream.

Keith Weinhold 30:10

Welcome back to get rich Education. I'm your host. Keith Weinhold, being springtime, it's also graduation time. If you're looking for a gift idea for a graduate, consider doing what I did. My niece is about to graduate from high school. That's my brother's oldest daughter. I gave her two gifts, cash plus gold cash because, I mean, come on, any 18 year old wants something that they can use. You want to give them something that they want. But I gave gold as well, not because it's in a massive bull market right now, which it is, but saving that can help her tangibly see and understand the diminished purchasing power of the dollar over time. Be mindful, dollars are just currency, but gold is money. So yes, I like my niece, but apparently not enough to give her a little rock turnkey property. As we know, wannabe homeowners have been roughed up with poor buyer affordability that started around 2022 they must either patiently wait for Mr. Beast to give them a home, or they need to keep renting apartment demand just could not keep up with 2023 and 2020 four's massive surge in new apartment construction that left a lot of units vacant. It meant that any new renters were quickly absorbed, and as a result, rent growth stayed flatter than a soda left open for a week. Builders overachieved, and renters under showed back then, but in 2025 and 2026 new apartment construction deliveries are going to keep falling from their peak even in 2027 that's probably going to happen. And we can already project this, because it takes two years, basically, to build an apartment from permitting to completion and permits are down. The dynamics of the apartment market are pretty straightforward. It takes around two to three months to turn permits into construction starts, and then it takes an additional 19 months to complete and deliver new units. So that's the two years or so that I'm talking about. The past high housing starts have therefore shown up as completions here. In recent months, the high completions are predominantly in southern states, and that's exactly why apartment rents have been falling in places like Atlanta, Charlotte, Tampa, Dallas and Austin. Even though those are the places that people are moving to, oppositely in California, it is especially tough to get permits, and tougher even yet to get apartments completed, there will be acute housing shortages in California. If recent past trends hold, then homelessness is going to be an ongoing problem. Moderate income workers cannot make ends meet, and therefore they're going to leave the state, California simply needs to build more housing to reduce the homeless problem and help out the moderate income workers. The real surprise is that today, national demand for apartments keeps coming in at high levels that defy even the most bullish forecasts. Real page recorded the best first quarter for net absorption in more than 25 years. It was 138,000 units. Costar called it the second best q1 in more than 25 years with 128,000 units. And now those numbers don't mean much to you until you realize that this century apartment demand absorption, you know, is typically in a range of 30 to 80,000 units per quarter, and we're looking at double, triple or quadruple that now. And what all that really means is that there is a surprisingly healthy level of well qualified demand for US apartments. All right, so this net absorption that I'm talking about, which is move ins minus move outs, that being over 100,000 units like this, that's something that you might see in busier leasing seasons, like towards summer q2 and q3 but rarely in q1 and apartment demand. It came in hot in nearly every region of the country. So what is going on here? What are the reasons for this surging apartment demand? I mean, sure, for one, it's the one that you already realized. Eyes, fewer people can buy houses. But it's more than just fewer people can buy houses, it's also, if you build it, they will come. I mean, cranes have dotted skylines in US cities for the past few years, apartment construction soared. It's also wage increases. They have outpaced inflation, and both of those have outpaced apartment rent growth, helping with affordability. Another reason for surging apartment demand are those baked in demographics. We had this surge in US births from 1990 to 2010 and that means that think about the age that they are now. That means this group is hitting peak. Let me get out of my parents house age. A whole lot of Netflix accounts are being split into those. People are moving out and getting an apartment. Well, with this in mind a surge of apartment demand in fewer new apartments being built over the next two years. You know, you think about what this means for a while here I've discussed how in real estate, today's best opportunities are one to four unit turnkey properties, especially new builds and also burr properties. I mean, those things have been the MVPs of this cycle, and you keep finding those properties and buying them at GRE marketplace, but apartment buildings, I mean, they're probably warming up in the bullpen by now, I might be able to add those to the mix soon, and to add those to the list about where the opportunity is, because apartment building values have been suppressed Ever since mortgage rates spiked in 2022 but it's probably not time to swing the bat quite yet. Of course it is in some cases. There are always some exceptions, but when you look around today, you know you got to consider apartment landlords. They still got to commonly offer concessions to fill their rent rolls. They're having to give away a free month's rent here and waived some fees over there. But demand, you know, it really tangibly, is starting to catch up with supply now, and when it comes to rent growth, it's still been pretty pathetic for apartments. Okay, apartments still lag behind single family rentals. Now apartment rents, they're only up a week, 1.1% year over year. Really weak. That's the latest figure, a paltry 1.1% apartment rent growth less than inflation then, and that's per real page market analytics, incredibly that 1.1% is actually the highest apartment rent growth rate in 21 months. So the bottom line here is that the apartment market, it has been through the wringer. They've been beaten up by rate hikes and drowned in supply and ghosted by demand. But finally, after years of gloom, the clouds are starting to part for apartment buildings, supply slows and demand grows here at get rich education, you know, I'm trying to give you the knowledge in the tools that I wish I had when I began, where the opportunities are, how to think about real estate, how to know about how you get paid. I mean, knowing all that sooner really would have made my life easier, like frameworks through which to understand real estate investing and the resources so that you can make it actionable and build your real estate portfolio. You'll notice that our provider network at GRE marketplace has recently expanded, and perhaps the best tool of all, that's our free in house investment coaching. We make it easier and hold your hand through the process of buying your first investment property. If you're a more experienced investor, our coaching helps you assess and evaluate the GRE Income Property inventory and help you decide which geographies seem to be most conducive to your goals, and of course, find that real estate pays five ways. Kind of property. Don't let uncertainty prevent you from taking action, because GRE coaching is free access those off market deals. There's no agent that has to be compensated. You'll get free help along your journey, from making the offer, submitting your earnest money, inspection, appraisal, your management agreement, what your closing day is like, and more or perhaps the coaching will help you decide that it's not the right time for you to add income property based on your own unique circumstances. We help you do it all and make it easy. I often like to leave you with something actionable for a free GRE investment coaching Strategy Session customized just exactly to you. Start at GREinvestment coach.com until next week. I'm your host. Keith Weinhold, don't quit your Daydream.

Speaker 4 40:03

Keith Weinhold 40:27

You know, whenever you want the best written real estate and finance info, oh, geez, today's experience limits your free articles access and it's got paywalls and pop ups and push notifications and cookies, disclaimers, it's not so great. So then it's vital to place nice, clean, free content into your hands that adds no hype value to your life. That's why this is the golden age of quality newsletters, and I write every word of ours myself. It's got a dash of humor, and it's to the point because even the word abbreviation is too long, my letter usually takes less than three minutes to read, and when you start the letter, you also get my one hour fast real estate video. Course, it's all completely free. It's called The Don't quit your Daydream. Letter, it wires your mind for wealth, and it couldn't be easier for you to get it right now. Just text GRE 268, 66 while it's on your mind, take a moment to do it right now. Text GRE 266, 866,

Speaker 1 41:42

The preceding program was brought to you by your home for wealth, building, get richeducation.com

Direct download: GREepisode552_.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 4:00am EST

Mon, 28 April 2025

Keith discusses strategies for building wealth in real estate, emphasizing efficient property operations and leveraging. He suggests setting tenant occupancy limits, sub-metering utilities, and increasing rentable space.

He explains the leverage ratio, which measures the relationship between debt and equity, and advises maintaining a high ratio for better returns.

Hear his take on the Florida's real estate market, including falling property values, oversupply, and rising insurance premiums. Despite these issues, Keith remains optimistic about Florida's long-term potential due to its population growth and low taxes.

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550: Real Estate Pays 5 Ways: Your Audio Masterclass to Financial Freedom

Complete episode transcript:

Automatically Transcribed With Otter.ai

Keith Weinhold 0:00

Welcome to GRE I'm your host. Keith Weinhold, today, the two things you've got to focus on if you're ever going to build wealth as a real estate investor, why Trump wants to fire Fed Chair Jerome Powell, then, is Florida real estate doomed with falling property values, a housing oversupply, spiking insurance premiums and slowing population growth. It's episode 551, of get rich education.

Since 2014 the powerful get rich education podcast has created more passive income for people than nearly any other show in the world. This show teaches you how to earn strong returns from passive real estate investing in the best markets without losing your time being the flipper or landlord. Show Host Keith Weinhold writes for both Forbes and Rich Dad advisors, who delivers a new show every week since 2014 there's been millions of listener downloads of 188 world nations. He has a list show guests and key top selling personal finance author Robert Kiyosaki, get rich education can be heard on every podcast platform, plus it has its own dedicated Apple and Android listener phone apps build wealth on the go with the get rich education podcast. Sign up now for the get rich education podcast or visit get rich education.com

Speaker 1 1:16

You're listening to the show that has created more financial freedom than nearly any show in the world. This is get rich education.

Keith Weinhold 1:32

Welcome to GRE from Manhattan, Kansas to the finance capital of Manhattan in New York City, and across 188 nations worldwide, you are back inside get rich Education. I'm your host, and my name is Keith Weinhold. I think you know that by now, because we deliver weekly shows more steadily and predictably than a new tariff policy. I've got more on tariffs in a funny clip on Trump wanting to fire Jerome Powell in stories on that level soon. But first, you know one thing that I've made you mindful of lately is that a successful real estate investor needs to pay attention to two big things if you want to build wealth First, keep your property operations efficient. This is your cash flow function. And second look at your net worth statement, and be mindful that you are leveraging as many dollars as you responsibly can. Let me break down both of these for you so that you can see what I really mean here the first one, keeping your property operations efficient. That means that right up front, with a new tenant in the application, find out how many tenants are going to live there, and firmly let them know that they cannot exceed this or that they're in violation of the lease. Can you get 20% more rent, or even 50% more rent by furnishing your unit and marketing it not as a long term rental, but as a midterm rental, and targets, say health professionals that are traveling if you're in a hot rental market. Can you simply keep the rent the same, but have new incoming tenants pay a utility bill for you that you had previously been paying by sub metering your utilities. Other examples of taking the rental property you already have and making it more efficient, you know, there are more classic items, like increasing your rentable space, renting out separate on site, storage space, adding a carport, charging pet rent or just boosting the curb appeal. Can you build an adu on your property? How about appealing your property taxes or automating your rent collection. Why don't you take a look at your insurance policies? You know, a lot of them have $1,000 deductibles. Well, if you're an economically resilient investor, consider raising your deductibles to 5k that way you lower your insurance premium and increase your cash flow that way. I mean really, putting in insurance claims can be somewhat of a pain anyway. Okay, well, right. There were maybe, I don't know, 10 or 15 quick ideas for streamlining your property's operations and increasing your cash flow. Now, don't try to do every one of them, but if there's at least one or two that you can think of as low hanging fruit to go ahead and harvest with the nature of what you've got going in your portfolio. And you know, ideas like I just shared there, you can hear about that on some other real estate investing platforms. But you know what the bigger gain. Is that you can actually make they take less work and fewer people talk about these things all right, and that's the second thing I'm talking about. Yes, it is typically more profitable for you and less work for you. If, instead of all those things, you increase your leverage ratio. Now, doing this does not help your cash flow, it helps your net worth. And net worth is something that you can later convert to cash flow. And this second one increasing your leverage that's a strategy that you just don't hear about on very many real estate investing platforms. So I haven't discussed leverage ratio in a long time. So let's talk about what it is, how you can improve yours, and then what it does for building your wealth. Okay, it's the relationship between your debt and your equity, and here's how to determine yours, and then I'll tell you how you're performing. Once you've determined yours, you might even be able to do it roughly in your head. All you do is take the total value of all the real estate that you own and divide it by your loan balances. That's it. Say you own a million dollars worth of real estate and you've got 500k of total debt on all that real estate. Well, it's really simple. Just divide your value a million bucks, buy your debt, 500k and your leverage ratio is two to one. Let's just call that two. If you're looking to build wealth, that number of two is kind of low. It should be higher. It means that you've got 50% equity in your property. Now say that instead, on the day that you bought that million dollars in real estate, you only made a 200k down payment. That's awesome. A million bucks divided by 200k your leverage ratio is five. All right. Well, what are these numbers really mean? Like this two and this five? All right, it's important because it is what you use to multiply your real estate's rate of appreciation by in order to find your rate of return. So just say that your real estate appreciates 4% this year. If your leverage ratio is just two, that's only an 8% return on your skin in the game. But if you've got more debt and your leverage ratio is five, then a 4% return means you've got a 20% return on your skin in the game. Do that keep your leverage ratio high? Now, what if your leverage ratio falls all the way down to a one. What does that mean? Oh, dear, you're not really doing much to build wealth because all of your properties are paid off. You don't have any mortgages on them. So if you're down to a one, all you've got working for you, from an appreciation standpoint, is compound interest. That's the point at which you've fallen from a compound leverage instrument down to a compound interest instrument. And as we know here at GRE which is counter to the mainstream world. And yeah, the mainstream world is where you have to work all of your life at a job you hate. And that's what you'll do if all you have is unlevered compound interest, all right, and if all you have is unlevered compound interest, well, don't book your Blue Origin flight quite yet. You're not going to go on one you can count on sitting behind a desk for decades instead.

All right. Well, how do you determine your leverage ratio? Again, it's your total real estate value divided by your equity. All right. Now, how do you keep your number high? By making new purchases with 20 to 25% down payments, and by not making new purchases is another way, and instead performing cash out refinances or doing both, you know another way to increase your leverage ratio, and you might not have thought about this, it's when real estate values fall. Now, that's surely not a desirable way to do it, and it doesn't happen often, but when real estate values fall, that drops both your real estate's value and your equity value by the same amount. And interestingly, with some of the ways that I described that you can add value to a property earlier, like a carport, that makes your cash flow better, but it does make your leverage ratio worse at the same time, a way to decrease your leverage ratio fast and lower your wealth building potential fast is to make an extra principal payment of a few 1000 bucks. I mean that one act alone might drop it from, say, a 3.14 to a three point. One Two over night. But look, I don't know what real estate markets you're invested in, and if you tell me what your number is, I'm gonna know how much your future wealth building power is, because you're keeping dollars not merely compounding, but leveraged. And if your number falls below about two and a half, which means 40% equity, that's typically when I begin looking to refinance or sell an equity heavy property, to do a 1031 into a bigger one. So two and a half, that's the number where you often want to take action. And really this is all just a fresh way of approaching an enduring mantra here at GRE Oh yeah, financially free beats debt free, and this sure can make you a mutineer among the masses. And I've been talking about these mutineers sort of things a lot lately, even with a tinge of irreverence. Perhaps you might remember that three weeks ago here on the show, I discussed how, depending on your circumstance, you can even make a car loan good debt, and how a seven figure income is the new six figures and then, yes, perhaps more irreverence. Last week in your free audio course, it was pretty iconoclastic to break down in detail how a 38% rate of return from just everyday buy and hold real estate is not risky at all. And last week's episode 550 the free course, that's probably the most important episode we've done in a long time. For a beginning real estate investor, if you've got any relative or friend in your life that you know, do you have someone around you that just doesn't get it about real estate investing, that really doesn't understand why you do this, please go ahead and share last week's episode with him. Episode 550 now on to the actual person of one, Donald John Trump. And why do I always say his name that way? I don't know. I'm not sure how that ever got started, but I don't say that as often as I call myself a remorseless slack jaw. In any case, the President wants to fire the Fed Chair Jerome Powell. This is nothing new. It just flared up again. I mean, here's the latest flare up. Listen to how Trump says he's never been fond of Powell. Okay, key in on that. This is Tom llamas on NBC, nightly news. You'll also hear the voices of Trump, Powell and Elizabeth Warren in Washington.

Unknown Speaker 8:38

There's a mounting standoff between President Trump and the Chairman of the Federal Reserve. The President blasting Jerome Powell for not lowering interest rates, accusing him of playing politics. Gabe Gutierrez is at the White House with markets on edge and his trade war escalating. President Trump is lashing out at the Federal Reserve Chairman he once appointed, writing on social media that Jerome Powell's termination cannot come fast enough. I don't think he's doing the job. He's too late, always too late. Slow. And I'm not happy with him. I let him know it, and if I want him out, he'll be out of there real fast, believe me, the rebuke coming after this warning from Powell Wednesday, tariffs are highly likely to generate at least a temporary rise in inflation, the President now slamming him for not cutting interest rates to help the economy. We have a Federal Reserve Chairman that is playing politics, somebody that I've never been very fond of, actually, but he's playing politics. Powell says the Fed needs more clarity before making a move. We're never going to be influenced by any political pressure. People can say whatever they want. That's fine. Trump had previously said he would not try to replace Powell, and earlier this week, the Treasury Secretary stressed the importance of an independent federal reserve. I believe that monetary policy is a jewel box that's got to be preserved. Democrats warning of chaos if Powell is ousted, if Chairman Powell can be fired by the President of the United States, it will crash the markets in the United States. Powell, whose term as Fed Chair ends next year, has said the President does not have the legal authority to fire him. If he asked you to leave, would you go? No.

Keith Weinhold 14:38

In that clip, Trump said he's never been very fond of pow dude. You appointed him, you You appointed him as Fed Chair in your first term, where you must have liked him more than any of the other candidates. Geez. Now you may or may not like Powell, but I don't see how. He's playing politics before lowering interest rates, it's completely sensible for him to see how the tariffs play out first. The Fed has long been independent of the executive branch, so they're supposed to be Trump wants Powell to lower interest rates. And remember, Powell already cut rates a full 1% late last year, and I really don't even agree with that cut when inflation was still elevated. Trump says Powell is always too late. Well, everyone agrees that Powell was too late to raise rates back in 2022 I mean, that had to do with the whole gaff where he said that inflation is just transitory, and no one will let Powell forget that. But do you give pal credit for a soft landing? I mean, he since brought down inflation while keeping us out of a recession, that's the definition of a soft landing. You know, I don't fully give pal credit there, just a little but remember, by that point, the inflation damage has already been done. It's already hurt a lot of people, and that's not changing. Now, of course, the inflation enriched you and it enriched me, because we're the real estate investors, and inflation is always going to do that for us. What happened is that Trump is frustrated because he saw the European Central Bank just lower their rates. So that's why he wants to see that happen here too. Because of course, lower rates can help the economy, at least in the short term. So I wondered about what you think. So what I did is I asked you in our latest Instagram poll, the question I asked was simply, should Jerome Powell be retained or fired? I was a little surprised at the result. 38% of GRE Instagram poll respondents said pal should be retained, and 62% said fired. I didn't think as many as 62% would say fire Powell. My best guess is that it's because you want lower interest rates on mortgages, and my next best guess is that you want to fire Powell, not because you dislike him, but more because you want to abolish the Fed completely, which I guess means that Powell would be fired that way. Did you hear about what happened when Donald Trump called tech support? Yeah. He told them, my tariffs aren't working. Tech Support responded with, did you try turning them off and back on again.

Hey, coming up shortly is Florida real estate doomed. If you'd like to reach out to us here at the show, you can do so at get rich education.com/contact, that's whether you have a comment or a question or a concern or a content suggestion you can communicate either through voice or email on our contact page, there one thing that we don't need, respectfully, are booking agents for shows reaching out to us. You know, I used to say that we have 50 times as many guest requests to be on the show with me here as we do available spots, but now it is more than 50x and I'm really grateful to host a platform where I guess a lot of people want to join in and contribute here, but the reality is that we only have one show a week, and a lot of weeks like this one I don't have any guests at all on the Show. That page is monitored by my terrific executive assistant, Brenda, just like most everyone here at GRE She's an active real estate investor too, and again, comments, questions or concerns about the show, please contact us at the contact page and get rich education.com/contact. More. Next you're listening to get rich education.

T. Harv Ecker 20:45

This is the millionaire minds. T. Harv Ecker, you're listening to the powerful Get rich education with Keith Weinhold. Don't quit your day dream.

Keith Weinhold 21:10

Welcome back to get rich Education. I'm your host. Keith Weinhold is Florida real estate doomed. Most anyone that pays attention has probably noticed that the Sunshine State has some areas, well, really, a number of them where property values have actually fallen. This is tied to the fact that there's an inventory over supply. There have been spiking insurance premiums tied to hurricanes. And what about the slowing population growth, and since the pandemic, Florida has had some of the fastest growing, highest appreciating markets in the entire nation. But today, in fact, there's a giant home builder there KB Homes that finds Florida's housing market. In their words, it's weak enough that they are cutting prices this spring. And KB Homes is ranked number 545 on the fortune 1000 so they're pretty sizable. And then an even larger home builder, Lennar, they basically said the same thing. The CEO of KB Homes said, quote, demand at the start of this spring selling season was more muted than what we have seen historically, despite a healthy level of traffic in our communities. So we took steps to reposition our communities to offer the most compelling value, and buyers responded favorably to those adjustments. End of the quote, yes, that is a genteel way of saying that we had to cut prices to get buyers like I mentioned to you, starting, gosh, probably a year ago or more, that other home builders have, instead of cutting prices, offered mortgage rate buy downs to buyers, be mindful though of how much your home builder is paying for those buy downs and how much you are at the closing table. Now, as we know, nationally, there's still a housing supply shortage, but KB, who does business in other states, says that Florida is the weakest, and that's due to over supply. Now let's forget about in migration for a second. Okay, that weakness is because a lot of communities are overbuilt to the point that the in migration rate cannot keep up with the over building. And of course, it's hard to generalize. Florida is a big, populous state of 23 million people. Southwest Florida has been hit the hardest that's pretty well documented. Punta Gorda, home values are down 9% year over year. Cape Coral down 7% let's go to the opposite end of the state, and Jacksonville, up in Northeast Florida that has about seven months of housing supply. It's actually pretty close to a balanced market between buyers and sellers, and then in the center of the state, Orlando, there's six months of supply that is a balanced market where there is normalcy in negotiation between buyers and sellers and a smattering of offers on one property And no one rushing and doing things like waving their inspection and then Miami Fort Lauderdale, you know, I really don't talk about them much on the show, because their prices are too high to work well as long term cash flowing rentals, both KB and Lennar say that they're keeping an eye on tariffs and that the changes to immigration have not changed their operations very much yet, because, remember, a lot of construction laborers are immigrants, and if they get deported, and then you need to hire native born US labor. Well, home prices go up, all right. Well, what about the Florida insure? Crisis. You know, over the past few years in Florida, a bunch of carriers have just withdrawn. They have pulled out of the state, farmers, insurance, bankers, insurance, Lexington insurance, all pulled out. Farmers told The New York Times that this business decision was necessary to effectively manage risk exposure. Similarly, AAA is another carrier, and they said that they're not going to renew some policies. They said the markets become challenging. 2022 catastrophic hurricane season that really contributed to an unprecedented rise in reinsurance rates, and that made it more costly for insurance companies to operate there at all. And prior to that, the market was already strained and had increased claims costs due to inflation and excessive litigation. That's what triple A said. All right, so where does this leave homeowners? Well, some are already relying on state and federal insurance programs, like the National Flood Insurance Program. There's a state carrier called citizens now, flood insurance is not required outside of a special hazard flood area, but that doesn't mean that a home is going to escape flooding if a hurricane passes through, but having insurance it does help along and accelerate the recovery process. Florida has some of the best Building Code adoption and enforcement in the country, and that fact alone has saved 1000s of homes and billions of dollars. But modern building codes are not necessarily applied retroactively to older homes. So it's those homes and properties that really have more exposure to hurricanes, those older properties, and a lot of Floridians are just skipping insurance coverage altogether so that they don't have to pay the premiums. They don't have any coverage. If you don't have a lien holder, you can do that. You can skip it, right? Well, like, How bad is it? Exactly? Just, how much have Florida insurance premiums been jacked up at this point. They've increased 60% on average between 2019, and 2023, and while homeowners and investors are primarily bearing that rising cost burden, I mean, insurers are feeling that squeeze as well. It's not just that the incidence of hurricane events is up, but premiums rise, of course, when the cost of labor in materials that it takes to replace and rebuild a damaged home have gone up as well things like concrete and structural steel and now, of course, as real estate investors, we can eventually pass on the cost of our higher insurance premiums to the tenant in the form of a rent increase, But when it goes up 60% in just four years. It's really hard to keep up with that. Florida's infrastructure is under some strain, too, and I see this when I drive the Tampa area. Every few years, I see more and more traffic. It takes me longer to get places like it takes me two or three cycles to go through a traffic light, where it only took me one cycle a few years ago. So roads and schools and utilities are under some duress to keep up with the population growth over the past decade, statewide commute times are up 11% you know, really that shouldn't be a surprise. I mean, that is common in any high growth area. Now, when it comes to insurance rate increases, there is a good chance that the worst is now over. Yes, Florida, insurance rate increases have been slowing down. The average rate increases have dropped quite a bit from 21% back in 2023 to a projected just two tenths of 1% for 2025 okay. I mean, that's basically no change expected for this year. Citizens, property insurance, that state option that I mentioned earlier, their rates are also shrinking, with some policyholders experiencing rate decreases of 5% or more. Now, I told you on a previous show that if you're looking to add rental property in Florida, go with new build properties for low insurance rates. But now I actually got a hold of some real policies between some of my properties and some of my friends properties. I've got them right in front of me here on a 1970s build single family home. I mean, the premiums can be high. We're basically paying 1% or more of the property's value in insurance premiums each year. So a 250k A valued single family rental that was built 50 years ago has a premium of $3,000 in some cases. I mean, that's a lot, but a close friend of mine recently went to GRE marketplace, got connected with one of our Florida providers. There, he bought a new construction duplex for I forget it was either 400k or 420k it's in Ocala, Florida, which is the central part of the state, and his 12 month insurance premium is $694. Wow. What a low premium for a duplex. That's why you go new build in Florida. Newer properties were built to today's construction and wind mitigation codes, and they have low insurance rates. And his duplex also appraised for 10k more than the purchase price. He has both sides already rented. And in fact, he closes on the property today, and yeah, I recommended that he go to GRE marketplace and get into Florida property, because that is indeed what he was interested in, and I sure wasn't going to stop him. So suffice to say, I clearly do not believe that Florida real estate is doomed. Florida has long been the antidote to high tax, high cost states, it has attracted snowbirds and retirees and hourly workers and increasingly younger professionals unable to crack housing markets elsewhere. Since the pandemic, millions of people have flocked to the state. I mean, when you look at a list of the fastest growing metro areas of the United States. I mean, Florida domination continues. You've still got big ones up there, like Lakeland of Florida is actually at the top of the population growth leaderboard nationally for metros with 500,000 or more people, Port St Lucie is also up there. It's third nationally, and Orlando is fourth. Three of the top four population growth metros are still in Florida, but this promise of sunshine and opportunity that has been replaced by something just a little less Sunny. I mean, you've got the rising home prices like Florida's not that cheap anymore, this diminishing affordability and this growing pressure on infrastructure, but Florida has definitely not completely lost its shine. People across the country are still moving to Florida, but not at the same rate that they did a few years ago, and the state is still seeing more people arrive then depart, besides the weather and the beaches that people love, of course, there's zero state income tax, and Governor Ron DeSantis has even proposed eliminating the property tax, like I mentioned to you on the show a while ago, although we can't count on eliminating the property tax anytime soon, if it ever happens. But wow, what a real estate boom that property tax elimination would create. So for the long term, which is what real estate investing is, I still like Florida. One thing that I don't like is trying to catch a falling knife, and that is analogous to say, investing in an area that is going down and has no future. Florida's got a future. It's got some challenges, just like anywhere in the US, but the reason it has a future is because more population growth is almost a guarantee. You don't get many guarantees in investing. Just look at the decennial census figures. Okay, this is the population of Florida every 10 years, starting in the year 1900 that's when they had 528,000 people, yeah, only about a half million people in the entire state, and I'll do some rounding here every 10 years after that. So in 1910 it was up to 750,000 people, then a million, 1,000,005 1,000,009 now we're up to 1950 where it grew to 2.8 million people, and then 5,000,006 point 8,000,009.7, 1316, 18.8 and then 21 and a half million in 2020, and it's 23 and a half million today. Now I only went as far back as 1900 there, but their census data goes back to at least 1830 and the growth has always been torrid, just uninterrupted. Every 10 years. There has been substantial to massive growth for at least 200 years, and Florida has still. Grown more than 2% per year each of the past couple years. In fact, it is still first place of all 50 states for population growth. So areas that are over supplied with housing in Florida are going to be absorbed. So Florida real estate is definitely not doomed. And in fact, adding more Florida real estate at this time, you know, that could very well be the type of thing where 10 years from now, or even five years from now, when their population is substantially bigger and there's less housing available. I mean, it could potentially look like a wise buy that you're able to get property at this time with less competition and maybe even a small discount here in the mid 2020s, and today, you can find three Florida markets listed at GRE marketplace. What else is happening at GRE marketplace? We've added two new markets, and they are also in the South. They are Jackson, Mississippi and Montgomery, Alabama. Yes, these areas are investor advantaged, and they have prices lower than most Florida markets. Though, I don't know that you'll see the net migration inflows into Jackson and Montgomery that you will in a lot of Florida markets. Jackson has a metro population of 600,000 and Montgomery 400,000 they both have really low property taxes. And there's something else that these two new GRE marketplace cities have in common. Any guess both Jackson and Montgomery are state capitals, yes, so they do have a base of government jobs. So check out gremarketplace.com read more about those cities. And of course, we even connect you with free investment coaching there to help you get matched up with some good property. Thanks for listening. Until next week, I'm your host. Keith Weinhold, don't quit your Daydream.

Speaker 2 37:10

Keith Weinhold 37:34

You know, whenever you want the best written real estate and finance info, oh, geez, today's experience limits your free articles access and it's got paywalls and pop ups and push notifications and cookies disclaimers, it's not so great. So then it's vital to place nice, clean, free content into your hands that adds no hype value to your life. That's why this is the golden age of quality newsletters. And I write every word of ours myself. It's got a dash of humor, and it's to the point because even the word abbreviation is too long, my letter usually takes less than three minutes to read, and when you start the letter. You also get my one hour fast real estate video. Course, it's all completely free. It's called the Don't quit your Daydream letter. It wires your mind for wealth, and it couldn't be easier for you to get it right now. Just text GRE to 66866, while it's on your mind, take a moment to do it right now. Text, GRE to 66866.

The preceding program was brought to you by your home for wealth, building, getricheducation.com.

Direct download: GREepisode551_.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 4:00am EST

Mon, 21 April 2025

Unlock the Wealth-Building Secrets of Real Estate Investing! Learn how strategic real estate investing can dramatically transform your financial future.

Discover the Revolutionary "5 Ways You Get Paid" Strategy, updated for today's times:

Appreciation: Turn a 5% property value increase into a potential 20% return
Cash Flow: Generate steady monthly income from tenants
Return on Amortization (ROA): Let tenants build your equity for you
Tax Benefits: Enjoy generous government incentives for providing housing
Inflation-Profiting: Transform economic challenges into your personal wealth generator

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549: Who You Are vs. Who You Could Be with Loral Langemeier

Complete episode transcript:

Automatically Transcribed With Otter.ai

Keith Weinhold 0:01

Welcome to GRE. I'm your host. Keith Weinhold, real estate pays five ways updated for today's times, even with conservative assumptions, watch your total return from real estate climb to great heights today. You'll understand what billionaire real estate investors don't understand a new free audio course today on get rich education.

Since 2014 the powerful get rich education podcast has created more passive income for people than nearly any other show in the world. This show teaches you how to earn strong returns from passive real estate investing in the best markets without losing your time being a flipper or landlord. Show Host Keith Weinhold writes for both Forbes and Rich Dad advisors and delivers a new show every week since 2014 there's been millions of listener downloads of 188 world nations. He has a list show, guess who keep top selling personal finance author Robert Kiyosaki, get rich education can be heard on every podcast platform, plus it has its own dedicated Apple and Android listener phone apps build wealth on the go with the get rich education podcast. Sign up now for the get rich education podcast or visit get rich education.com

Speaker 1 1:12

You're listening to the show that has created more financial freedom than nearly any show in the world. This is get rich education.

Keith Weinhold 1:28

Welcome to GRE from Belgrade, Serbia to Bellingham, Washington and across 180 nations worldwide. I'm Keith weinholder. You are back inside get rich education. Today you're going to understand real estate investing really well, probably better than anyone that you know, in less than an hour. Now, before I begin investing in real estate, I seriously wondered how in the world it could possibly be a lucrative investment vehicle. I mean, like, how would that even work? Because you've got this physical structure where elements wear down the outside, tenants wear down the inside, and the whole thing only appreciates it about 5% a year. Yawn. That is really boring. Well, later I would start to put the pieces together. And actually didn't really understand leverage in cash flow until after I had bought my first rental property, I became the person, however, to coin the real estate pays five ways concept, and I discussed that years ago on the show here, and now I have updated it for today's times. So the principles remain the same, but the numbers are different. That's because today, cash flows are lower and interest rates are higher than they were five and 10 years ago. So let's see what total rate of return we come up with today, and just how we get there. And on the way, you'll see even more evidence of why compound interest does not build wealth, and getting your money to work for you doesn't build wealth either. And to say that is total heresy. In a lot of financial circles, you'll clearly see how real estate has really made more ordinary people wealthy than anything else. This is course level instruction, and you're getting it all free right here today as part of one of our weekly episodes. This will help you retire earlier than you ever imagined, or just find the time for yourself to become the best version of yourself. Now, for long time, listeners, I've got to tell you first, much of today is going to sound like a review, but I've got a really surprising twist at the end here, in the fifth of five ways that you're paid, I also have a free gift to give to you and to all listeners today. And this is not in any way, replay of old material. It's not AI generated. It never is. It is me talking to you updated for today's times. And this is we're about to get started. This is just with simple buy in hold real estate. So you don't even have to be a house flipper or a wholesaler or a landlord, and you can just use normal 30 year mortgage loans. And as we see, it doesn't even take a ton of money. These are fundamental wealth building attributes that lay people don't understand and will change your life. I mean, more than 95% of real estate investors don't even understand what I'm about to share. We're going to calculate your rate of return from each of the five ways we'll calculate, then your cumulative return on investment until it builds up and culminates. In your total return at the end today, and I'll tell you anything less than a 20 to 25% total return in this buy and hold real estate is actually disappointing, and you don't even need to take on inordinate risk. But you'll see the exact percentage that we get up to today, and how it gets even higher than 20 to 25% I mean, this is how real estate creates Young Money and old money and Fast Money and slow money, and gives you access to other people's money. Ethically, all of that, we have some new listeners dropping by today. So if you're new here, I'm Keith Weinhold, get rich education founder, Forbes real estate council member, best selling author, and long time real estate investor, also an incomprehensibly slack jawed and snaggletooth to podcaster. But see here in the audio only, you only have to hear the slack jaw, but video platforms where you'll find me and this course on YouTube and rumble, oh, through a disaster, because you both hear my slack jaw and have to see my snaggletooth. It's dreadful.

Getting back to the course here, you know, school did little to teach you and I about the most important things in life, like nutrition or relationships or money. And you know what drives most divorces? Can you guess what it is? I mean, it's not arguments over trigonometri or English grammar or the periodic table of the elements. No, it's money problems. Well, the financial education in this course, it's gonna help you solve that as much as anything you need to take on the mindset of how you must unlearn what you've learned before you can believe something else.

We're gonna use this same simple example of a $200,000 income property throughout the course a rental, single family home. Yes, you can still find many of these, and it's with a rent paying tenant. Now, if you want to think bigger than a 200k property, no problem. Say you want a $20 million apartment building, you can just multiply everything by 100 because we're talking about ratios today. Say that when you buy this property, your down payment and closing costs have you putting in 25% All right? So you've now got 50k invested on this 200k property.

Well, in the first of five ways you're paid appreciation is what it's called. Well, historically, real estate appreciates at about 5% per year. All right, see your 200k Income Property appreciates to 210k There's your 5% yawn, boring. That might only be about the real rate of inflation. That's what most people think. But look at what you just did there already. You just did something amazing. You already benefited from a force greater than compound interest. You just created compound leverage, and most people don't even know it, because your return is far greater than the 5% total appreciation your return on investment is your gain, which is 10k divided by the amount that you have invested, which is 50k because that's all that you put into this. You just got a 20% return from only the first of five ways you're paid appreciation. And now, if you're scratching your head wondering how that just happened, how did 5% return go to 20% no worries, I will slow it down. And this course never gets more complicated than this, you achieved a 5% return on both your 50k invested and the 150k that you borrowed from the bank. See the return on the bank's money doesn't go to the bank, it goes to you all while the tenant pays the interest on the mortgage loan. We'll get to that part later for you, this could be your first moment of epiphany in this course, a light bulb moment. Yes, today you'll get more light bulb moments than Thomas Edison. That is the magic of leverage. It's so simple ethically use other people's money, but most people are only getting compound interest, a return on their money, only not theirs and others like they could have great so where does appreciation come from? What is its source? Supply versus demand for real estate an area's wage growth, population growth, a region's infrastructure improvements contribute to this. The shrinking availability of developable. Land and more. Now what if real estate prices go down? You're covered. That will be addressed shortly. Here we are just scratching the surface. You're starting to figure out why wealthy people's money either starts out in real estate or ends up in real estate. And the thing is, is you can do this the same simple way that I did when I began as a real estate investor. You don't need any degree or certification or real estate license in order to do this. Real Estate pays five ways.

Now that you know about the first appreciation, leveraged appreciation in real estate's case will carry forward your 20% gain and add it onto the second of five ways you're paid, cash flow. For many, this is the most important one. One way for you to think about this second way cash flow is that it's the recurring income from your tenant that shows up, whether you had any involvement with the property that month or not. That's why this is passive income most months. This one is the most liquid of the five ways, because it pays you cash every month, and therefore you can immediately either reinvest it or just spend it and increase your standard of living. This is effectively your salary increase plan. Yes, it's the opposite of a 401 k, which is a salary reduction plan, which actually was an early name of 401 K plans, since this income is sourced by your tenant rent payment, minus the property expenses. Your Cash Flow is sourced by jobs, because that's how your tenant gets their rent payment that they pay you, and this is why I like larger metro areas, your market selection is more important than your property. That's a huge lesson right there, because it's about the durability of this cash flow. All right, we're about to run the numbers and see what your rate of return from passive cash flow is. Let's do it. We'll build on our example of your ownership of a 200k income property with your 50k down payment. All right, on the 200k rental single family home, say that your rent is $1,500 a month. That is therefore $18,000 of annual rent income. But then you need to deduct out your expenses, and you do have a lot of them. They are your mortgage and your operating expenses, like I've shared with you before. The easy way to remember those operating expenses is with the acronym VIMTUM, vacancy, insurance, maintenance, taxes, utilities and management, and paying that manager is what keeps this mostly passive for you. So to be clear, your rent income minus your mortgage in VIMTUM operating expenses equals your cash flow. You can kind of think of that as your rent overflow. Okay, here we go. Say you figure that from your 18k of annual rent income that you need to pay out 15k worth of annual expenses, that leaves you with $3,000 of cash flow, or so you thought, but you have a freak plumbing problem that creates a bill of 1000 bucks. However, you have property insurance, but say your insurance deductible is $1,000 so you've just got to come and pay out of pocket for your managers, plumber to fix it, and now the $3,000 of annual cash flow you thought you'd have only leaves you with $2,000 somewhat of a thin cash flow. Then that's a higher maintenance expense than you had previously forecast in your pretty looking pro forma projection. That often goes wrong, because something stupid often happens out of the blue in real estate investing, all right, well, with your $2,000 of cash flow, which is passive income, that's divided by your same 50k invested that gives you a return of 4% from the second of five ways you're paid. That number is what's known is the cash on cash return. You thought it would be 6% but we're being conservative. The Freak plumbing problem made it just 4% add this to the 20% from leverage depreciation in the first video, and you now have an accumulated 24% total rate of return from this income property already, and we still got three ways to go. We're just gonna keep piling onto this return in the next three ways you're paid. How high is this going to go? And you know what's interesting with this? Luke. Conservative math adding up your lofty return. It's actually conservative as we proceed, you'll note that I'm using simplification and rounding you're going to see me round down more than round up. To keep this conservative and real estate math is simple. It's just add, subtract, multiply or divide. There's nothing complex, no trigonometri or calculus or exponents. This is easy. You just have to know what numbers to use, and that's what you're learning and reinforcing today.

Now here's a weird scenario. Imagine if you had a stranger out there funding a bank account for you, making monthly contributions into this illiquid savings account. I mean, does that sound too good to be true? Nope. It exists. The third of five ways that real estate pays is exactly why this is real, as this free audio course, real estate pays five ways continues for you. Real estate has so many ROIs returns on investment that one of the five is called an Roa. That's the third way you're paid. And none of this material is new or esoteric or avant garde. It's always been out there. There's just been no one else that's put it together before this, most people were never taught how to build real estate wealth in the real world. And what's insane about this third of five ways you're paid is that now you're probably already getting paid more ways than you ever have. I mean, instead, what is most people's investing experience, it's in stocks, bonds, mutual funds, ETFs, gold or Bitcoin. I mean, that's where you're typically only paid one way, capital appreciation, if you even get that, and maybe a second way is if you have a dividend paying stock. But I mean, that's all you've got. One way, maybe two. If you want to build wealth, you've got to give your money multiple jobs. That's exactly what we're doing here. ROA stands for your return on amortization this third way you're paid is the monthly principal pay down portion of your mortgage. That's your return. So we're going to add your ROA to the 24% total return that we've accumulated so far. And now you might think you already have experience with an ROA if you have a mortgage on your own home, your primary residence, but no, not actually, because in your own home each month, a portion of your mortgage payment goes toward principal pay down and the rest of pay interest, but all you did in your primary residence is you went and you had to work to earn money all month. All you did at the end of that month was move that money from your cash pocket over to your equity pocket when that mortgage payment gets made. So that's merely a transfer of funds, but with income property, your tenant earned that cash that month to pay your mortgage principal payment, and we'll tally that up in a moment. On top of the principal, they pay your entire interest payment, plus your tenant pays you a little on top of that each month called cash flow, which was the second way you're paid. So yes, your tenant is going to work for you. If your tenants rent payment is a third of their income, they're working close to 10 days a month just for you, just to pay your rent. I mean, that is amazing. If you add properties with rent paying tenants like this. It's sort of like you have all these employees out there working for you, and yet you don't have to manage them at work. It is amazing this third of five ways focuses on that return on amortization, and the etymology of the word amortize that comes from the old French meaning death. And that makes sense, your tenant is slowly killing off your mortgage balance for you over time. So let's do this. Let's add up your ROA, all right, we're using this same example where you got a 150k loan on your 200k rental, single family home. Let's say that you got a 7% interest rate on a 30 year fixed rate mortgage, so just the plain everyday loan. Just look up any amortization calculator, enter those numbers in there, and you'll see that in year one, your tenant pays down over $1,500 of your income properties mortgage balance for you, let's round it down to just 1500 bucks, because it could have been some vacancy in there as well. Your ROA is simply this year, one principal pay down divided by your amount invested again, that is 1500 bucks divided by your 50k Of down payment and closing costs that you have in the property your skin in the game. And this is another 3% return for you. That's your Roa. I mean, you are beginning to really build wealth now. This is somewhat of a hidden wealth generator that a lot of investors never consider. Many of them are aware of this, though, it's like your tenant is funding an ill, liquid savings account that has your name on it. We'll add this 3% ROA to the tally of a 24% cumulative return that we figured from the first two ways. Yes, you are now up to a 27% total rate of return from appreciation, cash flow, your ROA, and we still have two of the five ways to discuss. We're just gonna keep piling onto your return. What is the source of your Roa? This 3% it is jobs again, your tenants income. If interest rates fall and you refinance, you'll get an even higher annual chunk of tenant made principal pay down, even with the initial loan kept in place this 7% mortgage note, how in future years, your amount of 10 it made principal pay down. Only keeps increasing over time. But we're only talking about year one in this whole example. We're going to carry forward your 27% total rate of return so far into the next one as this real estate pays five ways. Audio course will continue here in Episode 550 of the get rich education podcast, yeah, even the episode number has some fives in it as we roll on, breaking down just how the five ways build wealth more after the break, I'm your host, Keith Weinhold, this is get rich education.

You know what's crazy? Your bank is getting rich off of you. The average savings account pays less than 1% it's like laughable. Meanwhile, if your money isn't making at least 4% you're losing to inflation. That's why I started putting my own money into the FFI liquidity fund. It's super simple. Your cash can pull in up to 8% returns, and it compounds. It's not some high risk gamble like digital or AI stock trading. It's pretty low risk because they've got a 10 plus year track record of paying investors on time, in full every time. I mean, I wouldn't be talking about it if I wasn't invested myself. You can invest as little as 25k and you keep earning until you decide you want your money back. No weird lockups or anything like that. So if you're like me and tired of your liquid funds just sitting there doing nothing, check it out. Text family to 66866, to learn about freedom family investments, liquidity fund again. Text family to 66866. Hey, you can get your mortgage loans at the same place where I get mine, at Ridge lending group and MLS, 42056, they provided our listeners with more loans than any provider in the entire nation because they specialize in income properties. They help you build a long term plan for growing your real estate empire with leverage. You can start your pre qualification and chat with President Chaley Ridge personally. Start Now while it's on your mind at Ridge lendinggroup.com That's ridgelendinggroup.com.

Speaker 2 23:45

This is Ridge lending group's president, Caeli Ridge listen to get rich education with Keith Weinhold, and remember, don't quit your Daydream.

Keith Weinhold 24:10

Welcome back to get rich Education. I'm your host. Keith Weinhold, as we continue with the real estate pays five ways audio course, before the break, we're rolling forward a 27% total ROI from the first three ways that you're simultaneously paid. Again, nothing complicated, just with a piece of buy and hold real estate that you purchase carefully. You don't have to do any renovations. You don't have to be a landlord. This is how you're going to build forever wealth, legacy wealth, if you don't come from money now, money can come from you. This can shake up your entire family tree. After today, you'll have a concrete plan. I don't come from wealth. I build it myself, and I'm laying out the architecture of how I did. Just that in a simple way for you, the fourth of five ways you're paid is that real estate investors are rewarded with a generous basket of tax benefits from the government because you are doing what the government wants. You're providing others with housing. Informed people know that if you spend money on certain things like solar panels for your home or education expenses, you get a tax break for spending that money. Well, with real estate, you don't even need to spend any money to get a tax break every single year. Incredibly, you get the tax deduction anyway. It's easy. Let's do it here. And you know, it's time to make something crystallized for you. And this can rock your world and even induce some disbelief. Some people say, don't get your money. Get your money to work for you. We've all heard that. Here is the heterodox. Here is the paradigm shift. If you want to build wealth, don't get your money to work for you. Outside of this show, I bet you have never heard that iconoclastic stance your best and highest use as an investor is not to get your money to work for you. It's making other people's money work for you. OPM, now, you probably heard that before as well, but I've got a twist on that. But see if you want to build wealth, do you think you'd have to both think and act differently than the masses? I mean, yes, you certainly do, but this is your differentiator, even multi decade billionaire real estate investors don't realize what I'm about to share with you forever. Wealth is built. Early Retirement, wealth is built. Your standard of living is indelibly elevated beyond what you ever thought possible because you are ethically using other people's money three ways at the same time, the bank's money for leverage in the loan, which we covered in the first way, you're paid the tenants money for cash flow and loan pay down, which we covered in videos two and three. And now here you are using the government's money for generous tax benefits at scale, which we're covering in this fourth of five ways you're using other people's money, three ways at the same time within this, this is why you're building wealth. And of course, this does not mean you're exploiting people by using their money, just the opposite. You're doing good in the world. Provide people with housing that's clean, safe, affordable and functional. Do that, and you'll be profitable in the long term and never get called a slum lord. Rental property income is generally taxed at ordinary income tax rates, but you don't have to pay tax on all of your rental income. The tax deductions are generous from rental property, you can deduct out your mortgage interest and your operating expenses, which I will not cover in our example. You also get a depreciation deduction. We'll look at that one closely, and when you sell, you can endlessly defer your capital gains tax so you never have to pay it all of your life, all right. Well, what does this really mean? If you buy a rental property for 200k and after a bunch of years you sell it for 500k your capital gain was 300k in most investments, you need to pay capital gains tax of at least 15% on this you would take a $45,000 tax hit. But with real estate, when you sell if you generally replace it with a property of equal or greater value, your capital gains tax is zero, absolutely zero. Now, rental property taxes are somewhat complicated, and I am not a CPA, I'm giving general guidance. I'm not going to get into things like your adjusted basis and other details. In fact, I'm not even going to consider this benefit of deferred capital gains tax in tallying up your rate of return. So instead, let's only look at your return from the tax depreciation portion of your full basket of tax benefits. It's going to keep things simple, and it'll also keep our example more conservative. Yes, even though your 200k rental property in our example tends to appreciate in value, the government says you can get a tax break because they say that the property wears out over 27 and a half years. That's just what the IRS guideline is. This only applies to rental property. There's no depreciation deduction on a primary residence. Let's do it on your 200k property, you can only depreciate the structures value called the improvement, not the land portion. We'll say that your structure or house's value is 150k and the land is 50k even the IRS knows that land doesn't wear out, only the structure. Divide your 150k structure value by 27.5 Yep. Pretty weird, arbitrary number, but that's how long the IRS says it takes to wear out. That gives you $5,454 that's how much you can depreciate or shelter from taxes if you're in the 24% tax bracket, that's $1,309 in tax savings for you. Divide that by how much you have invested in this 200k property. Again, that was 50k when you made the down payment and closing costs. This is a 2.6% return. Let's keep being conservative and round that down to 2% there it is our number from the fourth of five ways you're paid. We are layering on another 2% return. Now, can you really call a tax break part of your return? Is that fair? Should that be considered? Yes, it is, in this case of tax depreciation, because you did not even have to incur an expense in order to get that deduction, that's why some people call it the magic of depreciation. Usually, to get a tax break, like I was saying earlier, you have to make an out of pocket expense, like pay for fees to attend a conference or buy solar panels or pay automobile expenses. But you don't have to do that here, so the 2% rate of return for your tax benefit is even more conservative when you realize that we also are not digging into how this piece of real estate can also make you eligible for other tax benefits like a qualified business income deduction, a cost segregation and bonus depreciation. And for simplicity, we're not going to go run examples on different marginal tax brackets, and there are income thresholds and other thresholds, whether you're married or single. And of course, we are excluding that erstwhile capital gains tax that you can legally duck out of to collect all the tax benefits without me having to get deeply involved. At the end of each year, my property manager just sends my property's financials directly to my bookkeeper. And yes, I know we've got some CPAs listening to this right now thinking that 2% that is much too low of a return from your basket of tax benefits, but that is all we're going to use. We're going to add this to the ROIs that we accumulated from leverage appreciation at 20% in the first way, cash flow at 4% in the second way, and an ROA of 3% in the third way, plus this 2% from tax benefits here in the fourth way, here we are up to a 29% first year total ROI from your 200k single family income property that you so wisely purchased. Now you know how to use other people's money three ways at the same time again, the banks, the tenants, and with these tax breaks the governments.

Let's move on to the fifth of five ways. Add up your total rate of return, and then I'll give you some more important takeaways to give this context, and I'm going to give you your free gift. Your fifth way is your second biggest profit center, and most real estate investors don't even know that it exists, you're going to profit from something that actually makes most people poorer. So we're going to take our 29% add the fifth way to it, and it's going to culminate in your total number. The fifth way is called inflation profiting. Remember, it's not inflation hedging. Real Estate bought the right way is not an inflation hedge. Hedging is defensive, meaning that you break even from inflation, but no instead, you're actually profiting from inflation. That's different. This is offensive. Now a conventional financial advisor. You know, they're often out there selling investment products that tout something like a 10% rate of return. You know, synonymous with a return from the s, p5, 100. Ask your financial advisor about the five drags on that return. It's 10% minus inflation, emotion, taxes, fees and volatility, and your adjusted return is often less than zero. Just look at their track record. Stocks and mutual funds don't make anyone wealthy. They might just preserve wealth if you already have it strategically bought. Real estate has hegemony over all the other. Set classes precisely because it pays five ways. Either you can be a conformer or you can build wealth. If you want to escape financial mediocrity, you can't run with the herd. You need to get into a lot of good debt. It sounds scary until you realize that debt is tied to a carefully selected income property, meaning your entire debt payments are therefore reliably outsourced to tenants. DEBT, TAXES and inflation are three forces that make most people poorer. It makes most people poorer because they either don't have the resources, or they don't have the know how to arrange their financial life. They don't have any strategy. Well, today, you're learning how to make these three forces, DEBT, TAXES, inflation, those three wealthier with the Debase purchasing power of the dollar. You know most people, they see the price of a new car that goes from 50k to 60k or that their favorite Subway sandwich goes from nine bucks to 10 bucks, and then they just kind of hope that their salary keeps up. You know, that's sort of the average experience with inflation. Now, you and I, we would not save by stashing a million bucks under the mattress, because 3% inflation would de base its purchasing power by 30k every single year. That's why we do the opposite of saving. We borrow. For every million you borrow, we'll every year say that with inflation, your wage, salary, rent, income, all go higher by 3% now it gets easier to pay back your million dollar loan all while the tenant pays the interest, and you're profiting 30k each year. So after one year, you only owe the bank back 970k and inflation adjusted dollars and 940k after year two, and 910k after year three, inflation debases savings and debt at the same rate, so borrow instead of Save and see, this is the reason why the top selling financial author of all time, Robert Kiyosaki, a frequent guest on our show here, he says, savers are losers, debtors are winners. In an inflationary world, don't be a saver. Be a savvy debtor, because in the future, you can count on more inflation. See, the government needs inflation to occur. The easiest way for the US to repay its 10s of trillions of dollars in debt is to just keep printing lots of dollars, and that process debases every dollar that you're currently holding on to. Who cares about your debt when both tenants and inflation are just relentlessly paying it down for you? That is if you're doing real estate right, which means buying an income producing property with a loan. That's the whole formula here. That's all we're doing, buying a rental property with a loan. But when you understand how inflation both pumps up your real estate value and simultaneously debases your debt, it turns your world upside down, you almost become this inflation cheerleader, because inflation is now good for you, as this audio course is now covering the fifth of five ways you're paid. Please understand some risk still exists. You could buy in the wrong market, hire the wrong property manager, or just buy the wrong property no matter what, you're going to have some inevitable problems along the way, like that plumbing problem I mentioned earlier in the second of five ways you're paid over leverage is a risk over leverage means that you take on so much debt that you can't make the monthly payments so you can still lose money. But from listening today, you vastly increase your chances of being profitable, and that's why we say that carefully bought real estate has the best risk adjusted return. Here we go, following through with our example across all five ways on your 200k income property that you made a 50k down payment on, that is therefore a $150,000 loan that you took out at a 3% inflation rate each year, your debt is then being debased by $4,500 this is a quiet, hidden wealth generator that most investors don't even know about. $4,500 of inflation profiting divided by your same 50k down payment means that you have another 9% rate of return. Wow, a 9% rate of return that you're getting that most investors don't even know about. I mean, in the conventional financial world, I mean, they're proud to offer you a nine. Percent mutual fund return over time, and they advertise that as something good here by putting a down payment on a rental property. This 9% is another sweetener that no one even notices, and that gets added on to everything else. It's just incredible. Yes, 9% now, in the past, I used to think this return was just the inflation rate that we're using here, 3% but see, this is leveraged as well a 9% return from inflation profiting. And like I mentioned, uh, towards the beginning of the show, this is the twist for a long time get rich education. Podcast listener, see 3% that would merely be a hedge. So add this 9% to the 29% running total in the first four ways, and there you have it, an astounding 38% total rate of return from the five ways that real estate pays 38% I mean, you are really understanding why wealthy people's money either starts out or ends up in real estate, and that you don't have to be wealthy to start everything we discussed there was in year one. I mean, if someone asks you why you're investing in real estate, you can just hold up five fingers and share this episode with them. I mean, this says it all, and we could have surely come up with a higher number than 38% if you had used a 20% down payment instead of 25 then you'd have more leverage, and your total ROI would be in the mid 40s percent, and we really handled the tax portion conservatively. Here another reason your return could be higher, this was with a 7% mortgage rate and a pretty modest 4% cash on cash return as well. Yes, your total ROI is 38% now after year one returns fall over time due to the accumulation of equity in your property, so the denominator for the calculation is larger. You got 38% in year one, perhaps year two is 31% and year three is 24% but you can really see how you're getting ahead of the world in three years like that in other episodes of the show. Here, I do talk about how to limit the return attrition through refinancing and some other techniques, but these are amazing rates of return, compounding evidence that compound leverage blows away compound interest, and again, it's DEBT, TAXES and inflation that are making you wealthy. How you should know by now the formula is really simple. Just buy an income producing property with an everyday 30 year loan, even if real estate values fall, you can get paid for other ways and still have a positive return. Real estate values have always bounced back even after 2008 and see if the property is temporarily suppressed in value, you're going to have little concern with wanting to sell it when tenants are still paying you a monthly income during that time. Very few veteran real estate investors understand the five ways. Most real estate educators don't understand this either, but now you do, and to get this 38% total ROI again at times I simplified throughout I mean, your real world return is likely going to be different. It's going to be higher or lower than 38% probably. But now you know about a vehicle for actually creating durable wealth, and I would like to think that what you learned today is the most complete yet still concise way of understanding how a real estate investor gets paid. You gotta know this. This is the motivation for wanting to do this in the first place.

And hey, if you like what I've shared so far, I'd love to ask you for something, and then I have more important things to tell you and give you your free gift. As I made this course free. Hey, if you would please just share the wealth. Share this episode with a friend. I'm sure you know somebody that would benefit from this. It's really a big aha moment when you finally know how it all goes together. If you subscribe to our newsletter, you were already sent the video version of this course here in just the past couple weeks that's going to help you see how all the numbers go together. And the video course was also released free on YouTube, so if you're listening to this within a few weeks or months of the episodes release, it's still easy to find on our get rich education YouTube channel and four. Finally, in order to make this actionable and actually profit from what you learned, you can just copy me and buy properties from where I buy them at GRE marketplace, that's where there are properties conducive to the five ways you're paid. It probably does take about a minimum, oh, of a 35k to 55k down payment in order to get started. Properties are either new build or renovated. Tenants are in place. There's a property management solution, if you like, and optionally, our free investment coaching service there learns your goals, then helps match you with the right areas and properties and hey, I'm happy to tell you and announce that you can now connect directly with our completely free investment coaching service at GREinvestment coach.com, yes, this is a new URL to make it easier for you to connect with a GRE investment coach. Yeah, I kind of thought that was a good one, huh? How do you connect with a free GRE investment coach? Well, at GREinvestment coach.com I've got a free gift for you. Everything that we discussed in this course today was distilled down into one colorful infographic that we designed and laid out here so you can view it, download it, or even print it out on one eight and a half by 11 inch sheet of paper. Yeah, my team and I went back and forth on this infographic for quite a few rounds to make it just right. I like how it looks, and I've never known anyone else to do this all the ways real estate pays concisely onto one sheet of paper. The link for that infographic gift is in the show notes for this episode at get rich education.com/ 550 since this is episode 550 get it at getrice education.com/ 550 Yeah, the infographic gift is a memento of this course and the time that we spent together today. Think of it as your diploma, and it's a diploma that doesn't come with 12 years of student loan payments either. Yes, it is just a piece of paper, but is it worth more than the piece of paper known as your bachelor's degree or your MBA? I don't know. You can be the judge. So congrats, graduate. Now you know how real estate makes ordinary people wealthy, but learning this today really doesn't benefit you if you don't find the right property in the right market with a property manager. If you so choose a property manager, you've got to take action. You usually want to start small, including with investor advantage, single family rentals for as little as 200k just like our example, some cost even less. We will help you do just that, and do it for free with our coaching book a time and get it on the calendar at GREinvestmentcoach.com that's GREinvestmentcoach.com

I'm get rich education's Keith Weinhold, thanks for being here, but you weren't here for me. You were here for you. I'll see you next week. Don't quit your daydream.

Speaker 3 48:25

Keith Weinhold 48:49

You know, whenever you want the best written real estate and finance info, oh, geez, today's experience limits your free articles access, and it's got paywalls and pop ups and push notifications and cookies disclaimers, it's not so great. So then it's vital to place nice, clean, free content into your hands that adds no hype value to your life. That's why this is the golden age of quality newsletters, and I write every word of ours, my self, it's got a dash of humor, and it's to the point, because even the word abbreviation is too long, my letter usually takes less than three minutes to read, and when you start the letter, you also get my one hour fast real estate video. Course, it's all completely free. It's called the Don't quit your Daydream. Letter, it wires your mind for wealth, and it couldn't be easier for you to get it right now. Just text GRE to 66866, while it's on your mind, take a moment to do it right now. Text GRE to 66866.

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Mon, 14 April 2025

Keith introduces the three types of freedom: time freedom, money freedom, and location freedom, and how real estate investing can provide all three. He is joined by special guest, Loral Langemeier, a global wealth expert, who shares her journey from a $25,000 investment to becoming a millionaire through real estate and mentorship.

Debt is Not Negative: Loral emphasized that debt is simply the cost of money and can be a positive tool when used responsibly.

Tax Strategies for Wealth Building: She introduced the "tax trifecta" - understanding how you make money, how to activate tax code deductions, and how to invest in alternatives like real estate to reduce taxes.
Active Engagement and Mentorship: Loral stressed the importance of actively engaging in your wealth-building journey, getting the right mentors, and continuously learning. She believes the difference between those who succeed and those who struggle is their level of active participation and willingness to learn from experts.

Resources:

Ask questions and make requests at AskLoral.com to receive free tickets, ebooks, and other resources.

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GetRichEducation.com/549

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548: A 7-Figure Income is the New 6-Figures, Car Loans, Pros and Cons of Turnkey Real Estate

Complete episode transcript:

Automatically Transcribed With Otter.ai

Keith Weinhold 0:01

Welcome to GRE. I'm your host. Keith Weinhold, it's the first time that we have a certain legacy finance personality on the show. We're talking about how you can cultivate your own personal wealth mindset, how to creatively add value to your real estate and how to put your kids to work for big tax deductions and more. Today on get rich education.

Since 2014 the powerful get rich education podcast has created more passive income for people than nearly any other show in the world. This show teaches you how to earn strong returns from passive real estate investing in the best markets without losing your time being a flipper or landlord. Show Host Keith Weinhold writes for both Forbes and Rich Dad advisors, who delivers a new show every week since 2014 there's been millions of listener downloads of 188 world nations. He has a list show, guess who? Top Selling personal finance author Robert Kiyosaki, get rich education can be heard on every podcast platform, plus it has its own dedicated Apple and Android listener phone apps build wealth on the go with the get rich education podcast. Sign up now for the get rich education podcast or visit get rich education.com

Corey Coates 1:12

You're listening to the show that has created more financial freedom than nearly any show in the world. This is get rich education.

Keith Weinhold 1:28

Welcome to GRE from the second state of Pennsylvania to the second to last State of Alaska and across 188 nations worldwide. I'm Keith weinholding. You are back for another wealth building week. This is get rich education, and coincidentally, they are the two states where I've lived my life. Every single one of us has a gap in our lives. There is a gap between who you are and who you could be. And today, my guest and I will talk about this some more. Look, there are people who should already be financially free, but they're not. Their residual income could exceed their expenses by now, yet they aren't financially free. It's not because they're lazy, it's not because they're stupid, it's because they're stuck in one of these three traps. Number one, they're working harder instead of smarter. Number two, they're playing small instead of playing to win, which is like paying off low interest rate debt instead of keeping their own money, like I discussed last week, or thirdly, investing in all the wrong things, or not investing at all. And the worst part is that these people don't even realize that they're doing it. Most people aren't even cognizant. They don't have any awareness of the gap. You're not going to make progress on closing a gap that you don't know exists, you've got no chance of hitting a bull's eye when you're aiming at the wrong target. And I think it helps to develop a structure in your life where you have to tell yourself, I better do a good job here, or else. Yeah, it's the or else part that's a motivator. Now, some people won't extrapolate that mantra beyond the workplace. The number one thing that keeps employees showing up at work is fear. They tell themselves, I better show up at work on time, or else, I better do a good job on this project, or else I better give a great sales presentation. Or else. Now that's all well and fine, but to close the gap between who you are and who you could be, tell yourself something on a higher level, like I had better get some residual income outside of work, or else I'm going to stay stuck in a soulless job forever, and I'll never get that time back. So you've got to set up the right for else consequence for yourself. And then, yeah, of course, there are smaller ones like, I better avoid eating kettle chips, or else I'll gain weight. Let's be mindful that there are three types of freedom. You've got three types time freedom, money freedom and location freedom. Real Estate Investing gives you all three. You can make an unlimited income. There's the money freedom part. You can remotely manage your property managers from anywhere. There's your location. Freedom. And since you're not directly responding to your tenant, your property manager is, well, there's your time, freedom, you've got a buffer from emergencies, once you get this dialed in, and it does take a few years, oh, now you've got the time freedom, the money freedom and the location freedom. What do you want to avoid only making a big income? It was recently reported that Wall Street bonuses were way up this past year. Okay, yeah, but how happy are those finance worker Manhattanites who wear an iron pressed button down shirt and a Patagonia vest for 14 hours a day. That's not time freedom for sure, and it isn't location freedom either, unless it's 100% work from anywhere. You know, in my life, I recently got a great reminder of this. It really hit me. I have this close friend. He was the valedictorian of our high school class. I think I brought him up before. He's still a tight friend. I mean, sometimes we go on vacations together. Well, we have a high school class reunion back in Pennsylvania this summer, and among him and our other like, closest group of friends, my tightest guys, I'm always encouraging everyone to, hey, spend at least a week together, because we can't all get together like this that often, and because I have the time freedom to kind of suggest that and even push for that. Well, my valedictorian friend, he is a surgeon in St Louis, and among this tightest knit group of friends, he's the only one that cannot get the week off so that we can all hang out together more after the reunion. Instead, he can only get three or four days. He's got to get back to work as a surgeon in St Louis. Now, I'm sure he's compensated really well, and he doesn't live a bad life, but as a surgeon, you know, it's just become blatantly obvious that he doesn't have either the time freedom or the location freedom. Yet I do as a remote real estate investor, even though it's not something that I studied in college, but my valedictorian surgeon friend, you know, he had a long educational path, you know, undergrad and med school and residency and a ton of training and all these years tied up in his medical education. Therefore, you know, sometimes when people do that, they feel obligated, like that's what they should do, that's what they have to do, because he's already put so much into it. But he only has one of the three types of freedom. And no matter what you went to school for, if you find out about something better, like a great business idea or remote real estate investing, you've got to consider pivoting into that and go into that if it makes sense for you, the world changes. It keeps getting faster, and you've got to change with it. So obtaining financial freedom through real estate helps you deal with an external locus of control issue where life is constantly happening to you, rather than something you can influence. When you're an employee, life happens to you more often than when you're the one pushing the buttons, when you control the three freedoms now, you are narrowing that gap between who you are and who you could be.

I didn't mention it previously. Two weeks ago, I brought you the show from Las Vegas, Nevada, last week, from just outside Colorado Springs. And today I'm here in Anchorage, Alaska, where I'll be for a few weeks before heading to London, England, and then from there, on to Scotland. I plan to visit the former home of the father of economics when I'm in Edinburgh, Scotland, of course, that is Adam Smith, the author of The Wealth of Nations. I might tell you more about that at that time.

Before we bring in our guest this week, a quarter recently ended. Here is our asset class rundown. The NAR reported that the median sale price of an existing home rose 3.8% year over year in February, marking the 20th straight month that sale prices increased year over year. Mortgage rates fell from 6.9% to 6.6 per Freddie Mac this is all year to date. Q1, the S, p5, 100 was down four and a half percent. The NASDAQ down 10 and a half percent. That's officially correction territory, as those tariff years dominated. The quarter interest rates of all kinds are a little lower yield on the 10 year, Tino falling from 4.6 to 4.2 despite inflation concerns, inflation hovering just under 3% for most of the quarter, Bitcoin down 12% oil is still super cheap, beginning the quarter where it ended near 70 bucks. Gold has been the star performer this year. Are up 17% just in the quarter, and for the first time in history, has searched the over $3,000 an ounce, its best quarter since 1986 in fact, this century, gold has now outperformed the S, p5 100 by two and a half times. Just incredible. There's our asset class rundown. Let's speak with this week's guest.

This week's guest has been a long time, prominent, well known name, perhaps even a household name. She is a global wealth expert, six time New York Times, best selling author, and today, she runs integrated wealth systems and other alternative asset platforms since 1996 she's been involved in multiple areas of finance, mentoring, real estate investment, business development and gas and oil. And much like me, she teaches people her strategies on how to make money, invest money and keep money, but together, you and I can look forward to getting her spin today, and you've seen her seemingly everywhere over time, in the USA Today, The Wall Street Journal, the view Dr Phil in every major legacy network channel, many times she is on a mission to change The conversation about money. She was known as the millionaire maker from back when a million was actually a lot of money. Welcome to GRE Loral Langemeier.

Loral Langemeier 11:31

hey, thank you. It's great to be here. Look forward to talking with your audience,

Keith Weinhold 11:35

Laurel, though we're a real estate investing show and audience here, I think that you and I would agree that wealth building starts in the mind that most valuable six inches of real estate between our ears. What's your take on cultivating a wealthy mindset?

Loral Langemeier 11:50

You got to hang out with millionaires. I said the fastest way to become a millionaire is hang out with them. Is for me. I knew that's what happened. 1996 Bob Proctor introduced me to Robert Kiyosaki, Sharon Lechter, I flew down, sat at her kitchen table. I walked out that day. I flew in as an exercise physiologist for Chevron, building fitness centers in their blue collar like offshore oil rigs, refineries like the sexiest places in the world, Kazakhstan and goal Africa. I went in as an exercise physiologist. I went out the next day as a master distributor with a cash flow game. And I jumped, I quit my job and said, I'm going to go follow this Japanese kind of game around. And I was teased and teased and teased. Keith because, I mean, Rich Dad, Poor Dad didn't really hit until 1998 so sort of this risky proposition. But like with anything you say yes, you figure it out. And I knew people asked me over the time. They said, What would have happened if Rich Dad, Poor Dad didn't hit, if it didn't become as big? I said, we just opened up another door that's such a message for people, their need to see the path of how to do everything before they move is honestly one of their biggest saboteurs. So for mindset, I think mindset also goes with knowledge, because I just know, having taught this, you know, just this whole millionaire hold like a millionaire maker book. And for all your listeners, I can give them a ebook copy of the millionaire maker. So love to give that out to everybody for free. However. You want to do that in the show notes, but becoming a millionaire is the same thing as take like you said, you got to learn to make money. As an entrepreneur, even if you have a job, you've got to learn to make money. You've got to learn to keep it through better tax planning, and you have to invest in alternatives, which is why real estate was my first millionaire status. And I've been a millionaire now in nine industries. So that's kind of exciting new hit nine industries this last year. So done in a lot of different categories. Real Estate was my first in 1999 and during that period, if it wasn't hanging out with Robert Sharon, Keith Cunningham, like Bob Proctor. I mean the guys. I mean when you're living around millionaires, the fastest way to not only get your mindset, but then your behavior and your knowledge levels just skyrockets because you're around I mean people who live it, and they're living it every day. I think those who sit on the bleacher seats, I call it Keith, where they're just watching, reading, but never getting in the game. They're the ones who like they're sitting in the oyster seats, right? They're just watching. They're not actually get on the playing field.

Keith Weinhold 14:09

Sure, it harkens back to the classic Jim Rohn quote, you are the average of the five people that you spend the most time with. Laurel when it comes to mindset, one thing I think about is that every single day, 8.2 billion humans wake up, and every single one of us has this gap between who we are and who we could be, yet most of us make zero progress on this ever present gap. So when it comes to wealth mindset and finances, what can we do?

Loral Langemeier 14:38

You gotta get a mentor and a coach. And I got a mentor and a coach when I was 17, what shifted me and really changed the whole trajectory of my life. I grew up at farm in farm girl in Nebraska, and at 17, I was going off to university, also going to play basketball. And so I went to one of those pre sports seminars, and Dennis Whateley was a speaker. And. And I ran to the front of the stage, and I got the book, Think and Grow Rich, and that I can tell you, a farm girl 17, going like, there's a whole other way to live. So instead of going to school to get a law degree, which is what I went into, which I still think I'd be a heck of a little debater and negotiator, but I do that enough in business now, I got a finance degree, and I just studied. And my first mentor at 17, I walked into a bank, and I remember asking the bank president, will you mentor me? Because rich people put their money here. I need to understand money, because I don't understand it. And I was never really raised in that conversation, which I would say, 99% of the planets that way. And I have taught and traveled this work since, you know, 1999 when I became a millionaire, Keith, I've put this work into six continents, all but Antarctica. So I know it works in principle. Everything we will talk about today works in every continent. The benefit is the United States has the most corporate structure, the best tax structure, the best tax strategist, stack strategies. So even my high net worth international clients end up, typically in Nevada, with a C Corp or some sort of asset company or trust, where then they can buy us real estate, US gas and oil and activate our tax code for them. So we do a lot of really high, high level international strategies. Just because I bent all over to do that, when very blessed to do that, it's interesting, because I think mentoring, you're not going to be taught this. And what drives me crazy when people say, and I'm sure you've heard this a million times on your podcast too, Keith, schools should teach this. No, they shouldn't. Parents, you need to teach it. You need to be more active in your household than your family. And instead of letting Tiktok raise your kids, you need to raise your kids. So I do a lot of work in this category, because my kids are now 18 and 25 raised them a single mom, but legacy work is critical, and that's why I have a game. I have a millionaire maker game. So from the cash flow game, I have a game, and I think the parents have got to put the conversation about money in the household, and they got to monitor like, what they say, you know, don't ever, ever say to a child. Don't ask for it, or, you know, or we can't afford it, because you can afford anything you want if you learn to make money. And I think Keith is part of this. I know we're in a real estate show, but you know, how many people want to be real estate millionaires and never make it? How many people want to do like you said, whatever, the life they're really meant to live? But again, I think they're in I don't think I know their environment, who they hang out with, who they spend time with, what they read there. Are they binging your podcasts and my YouTube channel, or are they binging Netflix and Hulu and watching John like how you feed your mind and what content, how many books you read? I don't care if they're ebooks audiobooks, but you've got to put new content in your brain all the time and be around the people making it happen.

Keith Weinhold 17:41

Oh, that's great. Sure. To change yourself. You got to change your five, change your mentors, change your influencers, and, yeah, be that parent that teaches your children about money, and you don't have to teach that money is a scarce resource. I really just think that's one part of a mindset. That's where most people's mind goes when they think about money. They think about it as a scarce resource for one thing, and it's pretty counterintuitive with the mindset. I mean, if you want to be in the top of 1% you're probably going to be misunderstood and even iconoclastic.

Loral Langemeier 18:13

Yep, I would agree. And you know, another thing with mindset that I think is interesting is, and again, I'm gonna go back to knowledge, about consuming the right knowledge. And on my YouTube channel, which is, you know, Laura Langmuir, The Millionaire maker, it's family friendly. It's for five years old and up. We actually have a YouTube journal, Keith, that we did, where it says, What day did you watch the video? What did you learn? What will you do? And in 365, days, because I'm there every day, here is your this. And that's what I tell parents. I said, get yourself and get your kids a journal and at least one lesson from every recorded, you know, video. So I would say, give me five to 10 minutes a day just for a new piece of content. And the biggest one that is searched on my channel. I want to relate this to real estate is people's mindset and understanding with debt. They have such a negative, negative relationship to debt. And I want to start with this. Debt is the cost of money period. It is not negative. I think it's the most positive thing you could do. And as a real estate investor, arbitraging debt, meaning, if you can get debt for two, 3% or 0% I have over 500 sources, I can get 0% financing for 21,24 months, that's free money that's not hard money, that's not 13% 14,15, that's free. And I would go into a million dollars of 0% debt I have, and I will at the end if I can invest it and make 10,12, 20, 30% so people need to learn, debt is your friend. If you use it in a responsible, organized and educated way, it is absolutely your enemy if you're using it to buy lifestyle crap. So like, debt is such a weird thing. Keith and I don't care how long I've had clients, if they grew up with a lot of debt and a negative impact around money, they can be a millionaire and still have this weird relationship to death. Oh my god, debt, and it's literally. They tremor. It's like it's just money, and there's plenty of it. It's just the cost of it. Or is it being paid to you, or are you paying it out and arbitraging that that range could build. I mean, that alone, if you just learned that strategy and applied it on top of your real estate strategy, would triple, if not 10x your portfolio,

Keith Weinhold 20:19

like we say around here at GRE financially free beats debt free. You understand the difference? So does our audience. A lot of people don't. In fact, trying to retire your debt and slow your progress toward being financially free. I love it. Yep, you know what's funny, Laurel, just like you're coming on this show today, sometimes I'm a guest on other shows, and the way I've started to have the host introduce me to say, Hey, if you want your show to get some attention, say that our guest today, me has millions of dollars in debt, and he has from a young age that attracts attention. They think it's a negative thing. They don't know that my debt is outsourced to tenants. They don't realize a net worth statement. That's only the debt side of the column. We haven't talked about the asset side of the column, so it's really just an example of being paradoxical and iconoclastic. There we move beyond the mindset Laurel. I know you have some really actionable things on how you can help people build wealth quickly. Tell us about that.

Loral Langemeier 21:16

So again, using debt is a massive piece of it. I'll just talk about some of the stories, like when I got into real estate in 1999 real estate in 1999 I lived in Marin, California, Sausalito, specifically right on the water. I shouldn't be on one side, right the San Francisco Bay. And got pregnant at 19 January, 8 was like, Oh, little sticks like, Oh, I'm gonna be my mom. And I knew I'd be a single mom. So I entered parenting as single mom, and I struck that, you know, another check for $25,000 seems to be the number for a real estate mentor that I've been kind of putting off. And I said, Oh, it's time. I said, so right now let's go. I have nine months. And he said, Why do we have nine months? I said, I'm really close to being millionaire, but I gotta hit millionaire status. And I need this much cash flow by my 34th birthday, which was June that year. I said, because in September, I'll be having a baby. And he went, what dropped the phone, and so he said, All right, so I wired him the money, and he said, meet me in Oklahoma City the next day. Yeah, well, there's a ticking clock. Yeah, there was my timeline nine months. But we went straight to the streets. And I think for the for me, I was privileged to be with a whole team, and I don't think I am a massive advocate. If you don't know what you're doing and you haven't done it, why take 100% risk in any industry that you've never played so I only got 15 20% of that run. But here's what I came with. In 1999 I knew how to build a database because Bob Proctor taught me that. So during the cash flow era, I bought my own inventory, took out debt, bought $500,000 of games, put them in my own warehouse so I could collect my own database. So from 96 to 99 I had acquired 18,000 people who had bought Rich Dad, Poor Dad books, cash flow, cash flow, 101202, all his the products, and I had my own financing. So I was doing my own product. I had my own stuff. And all this is a big backstory, because a lot of you in real estate don't have a database. And here's the value I brought to that team that earned me another almost 10, 15% of equity is I brought 18,000 people, and when they saw that, they're like, you could help us raise the money, I said, I don't know to raise money. And they said, we do so again, I bought my way into a team for 25,000 in a mentoring program. There's about 10 of us that met in Oklahoma City, went down to Norman, and within less than a month, we raised $16 million out of that database. They did. I didn't know how to do it again. I sat on the sideline, but highly mentored and guided. So I was on a winning team from the beginning. We bought so much real estate, and then we went into the remodel. And so right then it's like, well, let's own the construction company, so that way we could get better buys. We can buy for the whole street. We can buy for the whole apartment. So we bought we started construction companies. We started being the distributor of the windows and doors in Oklahoma. We did that in Kansas. Now we do flooring as part of the distribution. We've done stoves. I mean, you name it, if you're going to buy it, buy it from yourself, or some way that you get paid extra. And then, like I told you before we went on the show, I would have the property management company. So we would start that, which was then came along with the cleaning companies. Gotta have the cleaning companies, the cleaning crews, the hauling crews. You're gonna pay one 900 got junk, buy your own truck, lease your own truck, haul your own stuff, and then rent it out lease it to others. So when we say cash flow fast in real estate, I went all in. So I own 51% of every property management company, and I put a ad in the paper for an electrician or a plumber, because they were mine most of two expensive things. And so they became partners. And I just made a lot of stuff, quite frankly, but I made it up with a lot of mentoring and guidance, of which those guys are still great, great friends of mine. We still own a little bit of property together. We went to Mexico and did a whole run through Mexico. The team was the most vital part. And what I say to folks in real estate, if you want to go big is you better get a database. I just find key that so many people in real estate don't understand. The Association of having a database, and the way I describe it is, today I might not want to buy, but if you don't have my name, phone number and email, and you don't continue to market to me the day, I am ready to buy or sell, you're no longer on my radar because you're not keeping in touch with me. Your job is an agent, a broker, an investor, I mean, is to build this database of people who then will go along with you on a journey. And I can tell you, it was a very blessed to have done it that way, but that 18,000 is what helped me become a millionaire. Because I had the people. I didn't know what to do with them. I didn't know how to raise my I didn't know anything about a PPM. I knew nothing, but I learned it all, and I was under a very, very successful. You know, decades and decades of success team. So, you know, they were 20,30, years my senior, but boy, I learned. I really leaned into it. And I think people do buy into programs and mentoring communities, but they don't do the work. And I see it all the time, I don't know how many people, and I'm holding up my millionaire maker book, and then this latest one, which is how I made my kids millionaires on paper at 10, again, by using trust real estate. Put them in my real estate company, shareholders,

Keith Weinhold 26:05

make your kids millionaires. Is the title of the book you just held on that second one.

Loral Langemeier 26:10

That one's a 2022, that was my latest best seller, and how I did it with my kids. And again, this back to The Parenting. So I can go a lot of ways, Keith, but I think the do it fast is go wider. I think so many people just go into buying just the asset, and they don't like I'm in the cannabis space right now in Nevada, legal. I'm an illegal cannabis I have licenses and very similar, if you're going to go in and you say seed to sale, you own everything like so I mean, the guy who's running my farm, he owns the label makers. He owns the, I mean, if you name it, he owns the nutrient company, because you need nutrients for the plant you're going to own. You're going to own. So the more you own of what you do and you have to pay, the more you keep your cash flow. And again, I see that mistake with real estate people subbing all the work to so many people. It's like there's so much cash that just went out that could be at least a percent of that could have stayed home with you. Sure

Keith Weinhold 26:59

100% there's an awful lot there. You're a big believer in vertical integration, in bringing in all these levels and stages of construction and management and so on, and bringing them in house. And yeah, it's interesting. You talk about the importance of the team. Here, we talk about how your team, whether that's your property manager, your mortgage loan officer, your 1031 exchange agent, how your team is actually even more important than the property itself. And yeah, when it comes to having a database these names Laurel, it's amazing, in a way, reassuring, in a high tech world with AI, that it still comes down to that primordial human connection of people and who you know you're the listener. As you've listened to Laurel, you could probably tell that she was a star student, which is why she's now a star teacher and mentor so much more when we come back with Laurel Langemeier, this is Get Rich Education. I'm your host. Keith Weinhold.

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Hal Elrod 29:43

This is Hal Elrod author of The Miracle Morning and listen to get it rich education with Keith Weinhold, and don't quit your Daydream.

Keith Weinhold 30:01

Welcome back to get rich education. We have a well known name in the finance space. For decades, Laurel Langemeier with us. She has done an awful lot of real estate investing in her career, and as you can tell, she's got her own recipe, her own formula. She does things differently, she integrates. She brings things in house. Has multiple companies, and Laurel knows that you can be a profiteer when you serve the customer or the tenant, really, to the maximum amount. A lot of people have a gap there, and there's an opportunity cost. And Laurel, I know that one way you serve people is with Airbnbs in the Ozark region of Arkansas. Tell us about what you're doing there. That's really interesting.

Loral Langemeier 30:41

So we bought pretty big houses, and a few of them we actually the one we were remodeling it, and that's when we really got to know the Ozarks. And there's a lot of tentacles. And so to get, like, from the properties we were buying to where you would rent a boat or a jet ski or get your watercraft, it was all the way around the lake. I mean, that's two lane roads, and it just took forever. And I thought, well, let's so we have another LLC that we bought some boats and jet skis. And again, when you get to know what do people really go to the Ozarks part that we call it the Redneck Riviera. They go to party. They go to party more than they need some bougie house to stay in. That's not what they really come they want to stay on the docks. So instead of putting a lot of money, we said, how can we force Do we have one property has 22 beds, so 22 people can sleep, but they just barely sleep there because they party. So we put more money in rehabs, into the dock, expanding the dock, big sound systems, a big bar, refrigerators, just made it super fun. And then when the tenants come, they don't just rent for the night. We also give them. We'll get your groceries and booze. We'll stock your bar down on the dock if you want. We'll pull up our boats and jet skis. So we had our own small fleet. Again, we just stacked on more service. So when the tenants arrived, a we got, you know, anywhere between depending on the boats and the jet skis and the tubes and all the ropes and everything they wanted, water skis. I mean, whatever they wanted to rent. Basically, we became like a rental company, and everybody freaked out, and they said, Oh my gosh, you're going to get killed in insurance. You're not. I mean, yeah, it's a lot more planning, and it's more work to get all that prepared. But that was anywhere between 500 to 1000 more a night in just the Airbnb. So again, why? If you're going to do one thing, do more for them, the more you serve a client, I don't care what area it is, yeah, the more you serve people, the more money you will make, because they're going to buy it, they're going to have to go get their booze on their own. They're going to have to go get groceries like that's a whole day of getting all that gear to their property versus, let us just save you a day on your holiday and let us do it all for you. There's so many creative ways that you could just serve people, and if you don't know what to do, ask them, What a novel concept. I do surveys all the time, like always doing polling and surveys. Hey, I'm a money expert. What do you want me to talk about? That's what right now, if you really look at a lot of my YouTube and a lot of my social media, people want reduced taxes. So like, I'm doing a heavy, heavy lift, because it was a survey that told me to do it, not just because Laurel decided to do it. And I think so many of you don't realize your audience will tell you what they want and how they want to be served. If you're listening, that's how you make money. And so many people as you know too Keith, that come as the entrepreneur saying, This is what I'm going to teach you. Well, nobody asked, nobody asked for that content. You wonder why it's not working. Is because you're pushing your agenda versus pulling and giving and serving their agenda?

Keith Weinhold 33:23

Well, that is a great point. How do you know what people want? Two words ask them, which is exactly what you're doing there and the way that you're adding value and amenities onto a property there, like with what you're doing with Airbnbs in the Ozarks. It actually brings up a thought for another Jim Rohn quote. Jim Rohn said money is usually attracted, not pursued. Tenants are attracted to your rental units, new luxurious floors, and you'll soon profit when they compete over it.

Loral Langemeier 33:52

Yeah, it's a lot of this stuff. It's not difficult. It's just different. And I use that saying all the time because people are like, Oh my gosh, it's so scary. He said, It's not scary. The only reason why people put fear and risk and that kind of negative energy and words, you know, language around, I think real estate or money or any of that, is the lack of knowledge. Because if they don't know, anything that you don't know is scary, like you and I talked before the show about aliaska. I mean, if you don't know how to ski and you try to go to aliaska, good luck. You would be scared out of your mind. But once you learn, it's exhilarating. And I find out with everything. So anything you approach and just notice the hesitation, is it because you need to learn it then lean in and find the best in class to teach you and like, shortcut your learning curve. You don't have to study for years and years and years and years. Becoming an entrepreneur is a decision right now, today, in two minutes, make a decision, and then get to work on what your offers are. You say, Well, what am I going to offer? People ask them, and they'll tell you what they're going to buy from you, because they're buying stuff all day long in this economy, they are buying and going to continue to buy.

Keith Weinhold 34:56

If you yourself have a question for Laurel, you can always ask. Ask it at Ask loral.com L, O, R, A, L and Laurel, what are some of the more outstanding questions that you get over there, and how do you help them with some of the most important ones?

Loral Langemeier 35:12

I'd say the number the biggest flood of content and questions right now is, how do we reduce taxes? I made up this term called the tax trifecta, because what affects your tax return is how you make your money. If you're just an employee, meaning a w2 like in America, that's what it's called. And Kiyosaki said it best in Rich Dad Poor about there's two tax systems. You're an employee, you're going to get tax pieces. You live on what's left. You're an entrepreneur, and you make money inside of a company. You activate 81,000 pages of tax code, and then you pay tax. So you decide how, where you want to pay tax. I call this living corporate life. So when how you make your money inside, what kind of a company? Right? And then activate the 81,000 pages of code for the deductions. Like I teach my people, they'll never go on a vacation. They're gonna have a business trip. And when you're in real estate, you can go anywhere in the world legally on a business trip, as long as you do what's required to actually make it a business trip by looking at real estate, and it's not that difficult. I mean, the reason I'm in a lot of different businesses is my kids have never been on a vacation. I don't take vacations because they're not deductible. I take business trips. So I teach families how to employ their kids. How to do all of that, like, how do you activate your kids? I mean, when my son was born in 1999 he was employed day one. He had Roth IRA By the second day of his life, and he was funded every day. And he's 25 now, just that one move made him a millionaire, just the one move of maximizing your Roth IRA strategically using it to invest in real estate. So I use a lot of participating notes. I did all sorts of different plays to grow their Roths tax free, tax deferred. So I'm super active about the whole family being in a real estate business. I think real estate is it's the first one I went after, and it's still the first one I tell lots of families. I mean, it's got to be in your portfolio. I still own a lot of commercial real estate, some residential, I said, in the Ozarks, but most of mine went commercial within the last especially COVID, I went all commercial for the most part, besides a few pieces of residential. Back to what do I that tax trifecta, how you make money, how you activate the tax code. And then the biggest one that nobody in financial planners will not tell you about it, your tax, your CPA, won't tell you about it. TurboTax is never going to tell you about it. It's how you invest in alternatives. So real estate, obviously, is a big one. Gas and oil is a massive one. Aviation, water rights, mineral rights, conservation easements, carbon credits, those are the ones that affect your tax, because you get the depreciation schedules. So it's how you make it, how you use deductions and how you invest collectively makes up your tax. And so those are the kind of questions key some category of that, like I told you before the show, I have a new guy that just joined by over $20 million of real estate and only a few LLCs, no S corp, no C Corp, no trust. I'm like, and then you have these ridiculous insurance agents who say insurance will cover it all. You don't need to have an LLC or an S corp RC. You do? You do too. I would never live on just insurance that is such as 1960s conversation, like you guys got to grow up?

Keith Weinhold 38:17

Yeah? Well, you know, totally. And you mentioned Rich Dad, and it's really the Cash Flow Quadrant. And one thing that the Cash Flow Quadrant helps delineate is you touched on it your tax treatment. Tom wheelwright is the most frequent guest that we have ever had here on the show, being the tax guy coming from the rich dad school. And Tom wheelwright was really the first one to inform us that something like 98 to 99% of the tax code is actually a road map for where the deductions are. Only one or 2% of maybe are the tax tables and what you must pay almost all the rest of it, is this roadmap to give you a guaranteed ROI if you follow it, something that you don't usually get in investing. And you brought up a few interesting tax strategies there. I think one of them is how you employ your kids and get deductions that way, while your kids learn. Tell us more about that.

Loral Langemeier 39:11

I mean, when Logan was two, I put him out. He was painting buildings. He was around all sorts of, you know, title companies and closing tables. And then my daughter's same thing. So I take them with me. There's again, part of parenting is they have to be involved in your life. And I think so many parents just leave their kids home. They leave them with the device or their phone or some iPad. None of us have it like if they're gonna sit at a time, you know, a closing table, then I want them if they may not know everything at that moment, but that experience in that environment of just being a natural environment for them to know, to do business deals. It changes them. Changes your kids drastically. And then fast forward, when my kids are 18, they get an LLC for their birthday, and they're added on shareholders in a bigger way, because then I use again the roadmap. Because, you know, well, I always. Laugh, I say, but people read fiction novels and junk whatever. I'm reading the tax code. I think the tax code is the most creative, freeing body of work that has ever been done. It's fascinating. It's so creative. My son's becoming a CPA because of it. So when my son went to school, he was on a football scholarship. He played for Georgia, Southern starting center five years because I'm a single mom and I only make $42,000 I don't even own a phone. I don't own a car. I don't own a home, actually, because it's held in LLC It's an estate property

Keith Weinhold 40:32

I put or on paper or on papers.

Loral Langemeier 40:34

No companies own it all and trust on it all. So I own nothing like I literally live Rockefeller style, and I teach people that this really was beyond the millionaire maker stuff. But my point with the kids is then when he goes to school. So instead of going every Friday to watch him play football, on a Saturday, I went on a business trip to see my son, and he and I actually are looking again. That's in states pro Georgia, where Georgia's other is buying some apartments that we can then back into, and then then we go to the athletic department, and we know how much they will guarantee rent paying scholarship men to live in our apartment, like there are so many cool ways, and that that's how my son will get involved. So during all of my trips to watch him, Yes, I took one hour to watch him play football. Otherwise, I went to see my business partner. So my point is, and when he came home, he had to come home, not to just come home, but he came home to see his business partner happened to be his mom. So there's a way to put your kids into these businesses early and put them through school, have school that can't be written off. And even though he's done a scholarship, all that travel was still not a deduction, unless we structured it as a deduction to the real estate company. There's so many strategies that I honestly, Keith, I made a lot of these up. And I went to, you know, my top tax team, and I said, why can't we do this? I said, I want this to be done. Tell me the legal way to do it, and then they would guide me. So then I just turn around and I teach other people that when you do your own taxes, number one, you're not educated enough to do your own taxes, so why people do Turbo Tax or even H R Block? I mean, that's where kindergarteners play. And if you want to be a millionaire, you have to get experts around the table that really know what they're doing. I mean, a proper tax strategist at the level we have, and I have, like, 28 people on my financial teams that integrate. I mean, they have masters of accounting. So they've gone to school five and six years. They've sat for four exams and had 2000 hours of audit. So whenever, like an engineer or somebody, even a real estate investors, try and do their own taxes, I'm like, it's a highly, highly skilled expertise. So anyway, I could go into the team approach. I don't think Keith, I know so many people are so close to getting it really all right, but their sequence is completely out of order, and they're just at call tax and invisible paying. You're just used to it. You're just used to paying it because you think you have to. And you've been scared by the media that it's this big, scary thing, and the IRS is going to come get you. It's like, no, they're not. This is legal to do all this stuff. You just have to do it right and document it right

Keith Weinhold 42:57

right. And that's part of your team, your tax team, and that's another good ROI. If you pay a tax preparer and strategist 5k which is more than most people, maybe they're making you 10x that or more with their knowledge of the tax code. And for you, the listener that might find the tax code to be dry reading, you know, for a lot of people, you're probably right that it is dry reading. But if you think of it this way, if I act on what I read, then I am getting paid for what I'm reading here in the IRS tax code. Well, Laurel, do you have any just last thoughts, overall, whether that's about wealth, mindset or real estate or anything else, as we're winding down here

Loral Langemeier 43:35

any question ever you just go to ask Laurel, A, S, K, L, O, R, E, L, ask questions. Make a request you can ask about I have online events. You can ask for free tickets. You can ask her ebooks. So ask her whatever you want. We're super generous on giving gifts away to especially our new listeners and new folks. But a lot of it's, I'm going to say it's active engagement. That's a term I've used as I walked into 25 and I look at the people I've made over 10,000 millionaires, probably 12, 14,000 by now. But the difference between those who make it and those who still struggle is active engagement. I'm showing this on your screen just to have it on video, but I got this magic wand because people say I have a magic wand. I said, I do. I naturally now officially have one, and it comes with pixie dust. But it doesn't really matter. It won't work. I can't just, you know, anoint you with my little wand, and all of a sudden it's magically going to change. You have to actively, like you said, study the IRS code, study my books like my millionaire maker is a blueprint for how to be a millionaire. So there's seven families in the book. Pick which one you're closest to and what you've done to yourself, and then start the pattern, and there's a pattern and a sequence for everybody, for seven different kinds of family, and what you've done to yourself. And I also live the last kind of words I would say to people is that I've been doing this way too long. I have no judgment, no criticism about what you did to yourself. A lot of people are ashamed or embarrassed, like I can't believe I'm this old and I should be farther along. So what now? What is my. Saying, so what happened or how you got here? What do you want to do about it now? So we start with a new, fresh line and stand and let's go and you can create anything you want with the right team around you and the right initiative. So just know you'll be actively engaged in this. This isn't me, doing it for you or to you. It's with you, and you have to own it. You have to own your own wealth. Nobody else cares about it more than you.

Keith Weinhold 45:23

these strategies work as long as you do. Laurel, it's been a great mindspring of ideas for the listener here. Thanks so much for coming onto the show.

Loral Langemeier 45:32

Thank you. Appreciate it. Look forward to hearing from many of you and helping you out.

Keith Weinhold 45:35

Oh, yeah, a wide range of expertise from Laurel Langemeier there. And you know, we're talking about the awareness of the gap between who you are and who you want to be earlier. Really, there could be a gap between how you're utilizing your rental property currently and what it could be Laurel found more ways, for example, to serve her short term rental tenants in the Arkansas Ozarks with providing boats and jet skis dockside to her tenants. In fact, there's a book all about this called the gap and the gain. It was published about five years ago, and let me tell you what it's about and maybe save you 10s of hours of reading most people, especially highly ambitious people, are unhappy because of how they measure their progress. We all have an ideal. You have an ideal. I have an ideal. It's a moving target that is always just out of reach. Well, when you measure yourself against that ideal, you're in the gap. However, when you measure yourself against your previous self, you're in the gain measuring your current self versus your former self, that can have enormous psychological benefits. That's how you can feel like you're making progress, and that gives you confidence, and you make more progress. You might have only owned two rental properties last year, and you're going to have four this year. So you want to make that comparison, don't make the comparison that Ken McElroy has 10,000 units and you never will big thanks to the driven and experienced Laurel Langemeier, today, I feel like she has a narrow gap between who she is and who she could be.

There is a lot happening here at GRE in our newsletter called The Don't quit your Daydream letter. I recently let you know about what chat gpts ai updates mean for real estate investors, and I showed you that before and after photo of how you can now tell AI to just renovate your rental unit, and within just a minute, it shows a pre and post renovation, it shows what the renovation would look like. AI is also being used for fraud, like to generate fake receipts or insurance fraud that makes a property look damaged when it really isn't. And every few weeks, I like to send you a good real estate map, like the recent one that I sent you, showing the cost of living by county and how that map was almost like a cheat code on how you can find the best real estate.

Also here at GRE our free coaching is helping connect you with properties. Many of you are interested in BRRRR strategy properties lately, I recently reshot the entire real estate pays five ways course, and I updated it for today's times with today's numbers. I'm giving that away for free, those videos and even giving a free gift at the end of the course, I share those resources with you in the Don't quit your Daydream letter as well.

And then, of course, I sent you details on the Great Investor Summit at sea cruise starting in Miami, sailing the Caribbean June 20 to 29th and how you can have dinner with me and the other faculty, like Robert Kiyosaki, Robert Helms, Peter Schiff, Ken McElroy and more. And this particular cruise event is not cheap to attend, although I don't make any money from the event, but our Don't Quit Your Daydream letter is totally free. I would love to have you as a reader, and you'll stay informed on all these Real Estate Investing Insights and trends and events and more, otherwise, you're really missing out. See, the reason that I write the letter is that I have visual things to show you that I cannot do on an audio medium here, like this, like those real estate maps. And before and after photos. I write the letter myself. You know so many other letters are now AI generated. I write this myself. It is all from me to you. And if you aren't already a reader, you can get the Don't quit your Daydream. Letter free right now, just text text GRE to 66866, and by the way, we don't text you the letter each week. That would be intrusive. The letter is emailed. It's just a convenient way for you to opt in. You can do that while it's on your mind again. Text GRE to 66866, and I'll turn it alternative way to get the letter is to visit get rich education.com/letter that's get rich education.com/letter. I've got a lot more for you next week. Until then, I'm your host. Keith Weinhold, don't quit your Daydream.

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You know, whenever you want the best written real estate and finance info, oh, geez, today's experience limits your free articles access, and it's got paywalls and pop ups and push notifications and cookies disclaimers. It's not so great. So then it's vital to place nice, clean, free content into your hands that adds no hype value to your life. That's why this is the golden age of quality newsletters. And I write every word of ours myself. It's got a dash of humor, and it's to the point because even the word abbreviation is too long, my letter usually takes less than three minutes to read, and when you start the letter, you also get my one hour fast real estate video. Course, it's all completely free. It's called the Don't quit your Daydream letter. It wires your mind for wealth, and it couldn't be easier for you to get it right now. Just text GRE to 66866, while it's on your mind, take a moment to do it right now. Text GRE to 66866.

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Direct download: GREepisode549_.mp3
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Mon, 7 April 2025

Keith discusses the shift from a six-figure to a seven-figure income being necessary for a comfortable lifestyle and argues that a $5 million net worth is a minimum for financial security.

He explains the benefits of leveraging a car loan for arbitrage, using a 3.99% interest rate to invest in real estate with a 20-25% total return. He also discusses the current state of the real estate market, noting that home prices and rents are expected to increase by 3-5% annually.

Lower mortgage rates could increase affordability and bring more buyers into the market, potentially leading to higher home prices.

Two-bedroom rents have increased by 3.7% nationwide, with significant growth in Nebraska metros.

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547: Is Hyperinflation Ahead? People are Frightened About a Coming Depression

Complete episode transcript:

Automatically Transcribed With Otter.ai

Keith Weinhold 0:01

Welcome to GRE. I'm your host. Keith Weinhold today, why earning a seven figure income is the new six figures? Then a discussion on the direction of real estate prices and rents. I just bought a car though I could have paid all cash. Why did I get a loan instead? Then learn about how to perform due diligence on buying an income property with the pros and cons of turnkey real estate investing and the mistakes you must avoid today. On getricheducation.

since 2014 the powerful get rich education podcast has created more passive income for people than nearly any other show in the world. This show teaches you how to earn strong returns from passive real estate investing in the best markets without losing your time being a flipper or landlord. Show Host Keith Weinhold writes for both Forbes and Rich Dad advisors, and delivers a new show every week since 2014 there's been millions of listener downloads of 188 world nations. He has a list show, guess who? Top Selling personal finance author Robert Kiyosaki, get rich education can be heard on every podcast platform, plus it has its own dedicated Apple and Android listener phone apps build wealth on the go with the get rich education podcast. Sign up now for the get rich education podcast, or visit get rich education.com

Corey Coates 1:20

You're listening to the show that has created more financial freedom than nearly any show in the world. This is get rich education.

Keith Weinhold 1:36

Welcome to GRE from the first State of Delaware to the 50th state of Hawaii and across 400 nations worldwide. I'm Keith weinholden. This is get rich education, the voice of real estate investing Since 2014 Are we really gonna change the name away from the Gulf of Mexico? Well, I'll tell you one thing. There is zero history of hurricanes in the Gulf of America, therefore, I expect the appropriate adjustment to my insurance premiums big savings. Hey, you know, despite being a geography guy, I'm really not emotionally invested in this movement to change the names of giant pieces of real estate like Denali back to Mount McKinley and the Gulf of Mexico to the Gulf of America. It's only a little interesting to me. I mean, there are just more significant things to concern oneself with. So call it either one. I don't care. I know what you're talking about. Before we talk real estate, let's discuss your personal finances. I recently watched Dr Steven Franson speak surfacing this topic, and it got me thinking, when it comes to annual income, is you earning seven figures like the new six figures. Now, I guess that earning six figures could still be a short term goal to some people that are new to the working world, but maybe as little as a decade ago, having a six figure income was aspirational, or even a sign that you made it, or could even feel wealthy. I remember that today that is so far gone. Now, of course, it depends on where you live, but today, you need 50k just to survive. Your housing would be pretty standard in that case, and I don't know that you could get much fresh, healthy food at 50k per year, you might still have to be living with your parents. You need 100k just to sort of live. Perhaps that's if you're single and you're near the coasts, or you're married without children today, you need 200k for a life with travel and some dining out. I mean, you couldn't really even ball out on your vacations, like on 200k you're gonna balk at 500 bucks a night for a resort hotel. I mean, you're staying at more of a hotel than a resort, but at 200k of income, you can usually do some discretionary spending. At 300k in a lot of places, that's what a full family needs, a household with kids in order to live a little bit beyond that, and that's a combined income both spouses. If you make 450k today, now you're able to travel pretty well. You're probably still flying coach more than first class at 450k you may or may not be paying for the airline lounge, but you are staying at some comfy hotels. You really need to make $1 million a year today to live pretty close to all out fly first class travel well. But you're still flying commercial on a million dollar salary. You're not chartering anything. If that has not bought you time to cook, you can afford an executive chef with a million dollars so that you don't have to eat restaurant food. You know, restaurant food, even at finer restaurants, is laced with seed oils. This is why what used to be a six figure lifestyle is now a seven figure lifestyle. My spin here on this also is whatever you do at any income level, 50k a year to a million bucks a year or more, buy enough time to exercise that's something that's going to matter both to you and to those that you love over the long term. All right, so that's income. How about when it comes to net worth? There is a minimum amount in my mind that you need to have in net worth for me to say that you've got it made in America today. What do you think that number is? How about that? What do you think is the threshold? What's your thought? It is $5 million that is just a starting point, a minimum net worth that you need, if you just invested that you could probably live off its income for the rest of your life. For most people, compound interest will not get you to the $5 million net worth Mark anytime soon. Only leverage will. But yeah, after the COVID induced wave of inflation years ago, you've gotta recalibrate what you think of as a lot of money, and some people haven't caught up with this still. Now, I was on that great riverboat tour of Chicago not long ago. I think I brought this up to you in a previous episode, but you know, one thing that struck me as odd was that the tour guide, he was describing Chicago skyscrapers and the architecture around us, and he said they poured millions into that project. I mean, really emphasizing that millions were spent. I mean, today millions can mean as little as 2 million. That's an amount so tiny today for a construction project that what is that like, four average homes would be $2 million I mean, some entire counties in the Bay Area have a median home price of more than $2 million just one mediocre home. So let's talk about the direction of home prices and rents nationally here. Now I do not think that home prices or rents can really climb a whole lot over the next year, like 10% appreciation. I don't see it now. I also don't see how home prices and rents could fall substantially. The reason that prices cannot spike dramatically, it's still due to an affordability constraint, and I don't expect that prices or rents are going to fall a good bit either, or really fall significantly at all, because housing demand still exceeds supply. So that's the constraint on the downside. Really, nothing has changed there. The average for sale home today, it gets between two and a half and five offers that obviously depends on the area, so you keep seeing both prices and rents increase at this range of three to 5% that's the zone that we're in now, and we've been in that zone for most of the last Two years. Really pretty modest, not exciting, appreciation rates. Zumper tells us that two bedroom rents are up 3.7%

nationwide. Rents have actually declined in some Sunbelt cities, Durham, North Carolina and Nashville are some big losers I was describing Austin to you a few weeks ago. Do you know that two national leaders in rent growth are both in the same state. Yes, these two cities are both up more than 20% in rents year over year. It's in the Midwest. Any idea where I'm talking about it is Lincoln and Omaha, Nebraska both up over 20% and perhaps recent GRE listener guest grant Frankie is happy about that. He's the only person I know that invests predominantly in Lincoln, and this is due to strong job growth and also that supply that still hasn't kept up with demand. Now back to my point about how nationally, both rent growth and price growth are still pretty modest, which is still a highly profitable formula for a leveraged investor that bought right But historically, it is kind of boring. Many believe that as soon as mortgage rates fall sharply, and a lot of surveys show this, if. That five and a half percent is the magic mortgage rate level that will increase affordability so much that home prices will soar. I'll tell you my spin on that is maybe even that remains to be seen from listening to me for 10 and a half years now, you know that the direction of the economy has a substantial effect on housing, rents and prices, a force bigger than just mortgage rates. And when mortgage rates fall and other interest rate types fall, that usually means that the economy needs the help, which might mean that employment is down. If employment falls, home prices can still rise. They usually do, but perhaps not as much as you thought they would. So my point is, is that when mortgage rates fall significantly, that does not automatically translate into soaring price growth. Again. You gotta take history over hunches. If there's one thing that feels a little different in this cycle though, it's that we do have this palpable amount of pent up housing demand, so lower rates really could bring a lot more buyers off the sidelines. So therefore, it is possible that home prices will soar if rates really plummet. It is just not axiomatic. Now I just bought a new car, though I could have paid all cash. I chose to get the loan. And before I tell you about why I considered not getting a car at all and just using Uber Lyft ride sharing services forever. But sometimes I like to go off the beaten path and trek in some remote places. So that just wouldn't work. I also travel a good bit, and I considered not owning any car that's tethered to just one place. It's just not that efficient. But it came down to freedom. I enjoy my freedom and autonomy to hop in my own car and drive it on a whim. Though I could have paid all cash for this new car purchase, I chose to put the minimum amount down, and I got a loan for about 95% of the cost of the car. Why would I do that? Car debt is surely not as good as real estate debt. With car debt, I have to repay my own loan. I cannot outsource these car debt payments to tenants, and the payment is about $900 a month. I'll have to pay all of that myself. Also, unlike real estate, a car is a depreciating asset. Unlike mortgage interest, car loan interest is typically not tax deductible either. I'm not going to rent this car out through Toro and try to get an income stream off the car. Nothing like that. So this might sound like three strikes against a car loan. I've got to make the payment myself. It's declining in value, especially as a new car. It starts depreciating fast as soon as I drive it off the lot, and I'm not going to have any tax breaks. Oh, come on. I mean, that might sound like bad debt to a lot of people. Leading GRE I am a staunch advocate for good debt. So why did I embrace a car loan to the maximum leveraged amount? Because I am making my car loan good debt. The definition of good debt is debt that makes money for you. Car loan debt is secured, meaning there is underlying collateral, the car itself. And by the way, credit card debt is an example of unsecured debt. The big reason, though, is the financing through the dealership BMW is a 3.99% interest rate for five years, my credit's perfect. So I got a good rate there. Therefore this car loan is a simple arbitrage play. I'm borrowing at a lower rate to invest at a higher rate. Look, even if my car loan rate were double 8% I would probably still get this car loan, but it's 3.99How do I have confidence that I'm going to beat that on an annualized basis over the next five years? Well, first future inflation expectations are elevated, like I touched on on last week's show, if true, inflation the real diminished purchasing power of your dollar over the next five years is 4% I mean, that's a break even for me, right there already, but I'm gonna do a lot better than that. As a real estate investor, I know that instead of sinking this money into the car, that's enough of a down payment for a rental single family. Home or almost a low cost duplex, and being cognizant that real estate pays five ways, I expect a minimum of a 20 to 25% total rate of return with low risk. Now, if you're a new listener, that last part sounded far fetched. I know that's okay. You just don't know how to calculate your ROI for an income property with a loan. Yet another way to describe my strategy here is though I could pay cash, why would I tie up that many funds in a car? So I'm cognizant of opportunity cost. Opportunity cost means that you're missing out on a greater benefit when you choose one option over another. This loan approach also keeps me more liquid. Look, keep your money. Don't give it to a bank. Make your bank take five years to get all the money, while my $900 monthly payment stays fixed the whole time as inflation just keeps relentlessly debasing the bank's payment that they get from me. I mean, with that part, it works the same way as it does in real estate or any fixed rate loan that you could get. Be mindful, by paying all cash, you would not improve your net worth at all. Nothing happens to your net worth. Paying all cash reduces both your asset column and your debt column by the same amount, and it hurts your liquidity. Now, if you've got an emergency, you could be in a case where all of your funds would be gone if you paid all cash, they're inside the car, and you might not be able to extract them back out. All right. Well, what about the depreciating asset part of this equation? That's what most cars are. Well, just like a piece of real estate, your car's value will rise or fall regardless of your equity position. That doesn't influence it at all. So I will be underwater on the car. That's a way that some people might look at it. That means that I'm going to owe more on the balance than the car is worth. That appears irresponsible to some people. Well, yeah, that just means that the bank's money is tied up in the car, not mine. I've got it off giving me a good return. Look, when you have loans, you have another type of leverage, and it's not the mathematical type that I often discuss here. I mean, have you ever owed a friend money when something untoward happens? Who is motivated to talk between the two of you? You are your friend, your friend. They're going to be the one that's willing to work with you and help you out. They've got to give you levers when there's a mal apropos occurrence and the borrower loses their job or has a medical disaster and a huge bill, the person that's owed the money is always going to keep communication lines open with you, you as the borrower, are the one that is in control. Keep your debt on, keep your own money, stay in control. And how is this car loan making money for me, if I get a, say, 23% total return from income property and keep paying a 4% car loan, that is 19% arbitrage, I mean, what an easy choice. Again, the definition of good debt is debt that is used to increase your wealth. So getting the Max car loan allows me to avoid paying that opportunity cost of having all the funds tied up in a depreciating asset. And that is how a real estate investor buys a car. Now you're a smart investor. I mean, we have a really wise, responsible audience comprised of people just like you. But what would be some reasons that a real estate investor should pay all cash? Because there are some, and a lot of them revolve around, if you're financially irresponsible, if instead you got a car loan so you could stay liquid and maintain your life as a profligate and reprobate gambling degenerate and lose it all on sports gambling through the freaking Draft Kings and FanDuel apps. Okay, that's not a good reason. But as a GRE listener, that probably is not you. I was probably not talking about you, right. There another reason to pay all cash rather than getting the loan like I have, is if you don't have the liquidity to service the 900 Dollar monthly debt payment yourself, you could be over leveraged. See the chunk that I'm investing in real estate instead of the car that real estate will produce income for me, but it actually will not produce as much as $900 in cash flow to fully offset the car payment. Now it's going to produce a few $100 but my arbitrage is being created with the summation of all of real estate's five profit centers. I've got the whole shebang now, the leverage appreciation, the cash flow, the ROA, the tax benefits and the inflation profiting all coming at you. All five. My liquidity comes from elsewhere. A third reason why a real estate investor would want to pay all cash for a car is because say that you would effectively be forced to pay all cash for the car. Because if you took on a $900 monthly payment, that would dent your mortgage loan qualifications, debt to income ratio that mortgage loan underwriters are going to look at it would hike up your DTI so much that you couldn't qualify for future income property loans. So right, there are, what was that? Three reasons that a real estate investor would want to pay all cash if they could. But let's not lose the bigger point I was talking about the exceptions there. The bigger point is that consider getting the maximum loan for your next car, or even getting a loan against your current car if you already have one without any debt on it. It's actually a rational approach, because you want to consider the loan first, since this is your money, you earned it, approach it with the strategy first of keeping your own money that you traded away your finite life's time for. Think of keeping it first and only then consider giving it away next. I am getting the biggest car loan that I can and making the minimum monthly payments all 60 months five years, I did the same thing with my last car. It is an easy choice for me in just one word, it is for the arbitrage one word, most experienced financiers and real estate investors have not been exposed to those ideas that I just shared with you, and at the least, I am confident that I just gave you something to chew on mentally. There I've been talking about the intersection of your personal finances and real estate investing. Today, I'm your host, Keith Weinhold here on episode 548 of the get rich education podcast

what have GRE listeners been doing these past few weeks, they have been scooping up BRRRR properties, employing the buy, renovate, rent, refinance and repeat strategy fueled by GRE 's recent live event. You can watch the video of the event on demand right now, get an understanding of the strategy, see why it's so lucrative, and if it interests you, even get you paired up with actual property addresses conducive to the strategy. You can do that at GRE webinars.com this event can indelibly elevate your entire socio economic class and shape your legacy. That is a deep statement. Hey, this is what 8x leverage and $500 plus of cash flow on each single family rental property can do for you with the burr strategy in Cleveland. I mean, how much earlier will this allow you to retire? The event is free to watch. You can watch from home. I mean, come on, what else are you going to do at home tonight? Spend that time cleaning out your closet or smoking meats. Maybe at least, spend that time getting a car loan. What's the opportunity cost of you smoking meats tonight when you can actionably Build a real estate legacy with the BRRRRstrategy? Strategically outsource the meat smoking to somebody else. That's what I do. It does not take much to get started. These pre renovated homes are often about 60k some GRE followers have already bought two or three at a time. You'll see Jerry's investment coach Naresh and event co host Phil. I mean, just watching him talk is amazing. Phil is America's preeminent authority on burr real estate investing. Again, you can watch the event right now, and I don't know how long we'll keep it up for, just visit GRE webinars.com

Next fatal mistakes that you've got to avoid when buying income property with some vital due diligence tips. I'm Keith Weinhold. You're listening to get rich and. Vacation.

Robert Kiyosaki 26:49

this is Rich Dad, Poor Dad. Author Robert Kiyosaki, listen to get rich education with Keith Weinhold. And the reason I respect Keith, He's a very strong, smart, bright young man.

Keith Weinhold 27:10

Welcome back to get rich Education. I'm your host. Keith Weinhold, it's been a while, but I know that I shared with you before that my first ever out of state rental property that I bought ended up being a loser, and this is despite the fact that the turnkey provider and property manager that I was hiring for the property, they even told me not to buy the property because they couldn't keep it occupied in that neighborhood, and they told me to buy a different one instead. I didn't listen. I bought it anyway, and I lost we couldn't keep it occupied, so after a few years, I sold it to an owner, occupant, family for a small profit, but it was after years of negative cash flow, so there really wasn't any profit there, because, like I just said, we couldn't keep it occupied with a rent paying tenant that was back in 2012 near Fort Worth Texas. I bought it because it was cheap, just 153k and it looked pretty. It was brick. Those are both bad reasons to buy. Cheap doesn't always mean good. And the fact that a property looks pretty, I mean, I guess that's a somewhat good thing, but it should not be a deciding factor. I was never going to live there facts Trump feelings in investing. So my first bad experience was totally avoidable. I can only blame myself. Let me tell you about some other fatal mistakes to avoid, as we talk about some turnkey real estate investing due diligence. Since turnkey means all done for you, or another way to describe the property is a rent ready property. You know that word turnkey? It's sort of this compelling, even seductive buzzword, and it just might make you think that, ah, everything is just handled now and forever. It's gonna sail along just fine. No, it won't. Now, this is the type of investing that can change your life. This is the real estate pays five ways. Compound leverage Trumps compound interest, type of vehicle. Financially free beats that free type of vehicle. You're winning the inflation Triple Crown all those great, formulaic GRE mantras, but you better check to make sure before you get too far into it. And that's why we're talking about vital due diligence here. I think you know by now that turnkey, it means a property that's really just got three things. It's already renovated or new. Secondly, has a tenant in it, and it has professional property management from day one. Now, the property providers at GRE marketplace, they are some of the good ones. They have good reputations. Many have been in business for a long time, but some others do not. So what about a provider? Provider that's in, say, Oklahoma, but you live out of the area on one of the coasts, and this Oklahoma provider, they're trying to pass off a property in Oklahoma City or Tulsa to you, it's actually in a class D neighborhood the worst. And they're sort of presenting it like it's a Class B minus neighborhood, right? How can you hedge against that? How can you know that things are not being misrepresented to you? Well, of course, everyone knows about Google Street View. You're probably going to look at that first that's going to tell you about the street scene. It's free to use a paid service that gives you neighborhood analytics. Is it neighborhoodscout.com you want to verify crime rates in areas, income levels, poverty levels, education levels and school quality to make sure that the property characteristics are what you are being told, and some of those attributes always matter with property. I mean, crime rates matter because even though you're not living there so you're not going to be able to retain respectable rent paying tenants that would tolerate a high crime neighborhood. Understand, though, that not all crime data is the same. Violent crime is probably the worst shoplifting, I'll call that in the middle. And then most traffic violations, they're light crimes. Now, if you're buying a single family rental type, of course, the quality of the school district, well, that's going to matter more than if you're buying a building of little efficiency apartments where the school district hardly matters there, because you're not catering to families. I've mentioned before that we go look.com. Is a service where you can hire an independent inspector, not even a real estate related person, necessarily, but just an independent on the ground inspector to just go check out a neighborhood at any hour of the day or night. Now, if you have any question about the out of state neighborhood that you're buying in an easy way to get a check on the decency of the neighborhood is something really simple. Make sure the turnkey provider owns properties in the area that they're selling to you. This helps ensure that they're not offloading their problem properties onto you. That's something that's probably only going to happen with an inexperienced provider that doesn't have a reputation to protect yet. But when it comes to neighborhood quality, once I'm pretty serious about buying a property, do you know who I usually get reliable information from? And it's virtually free, and you're contacting this party anyway, so it's so easy for you that is just simply ask your property inspector. I mean, you always want that independent, certified Property inspector to walk inside every room of your prospective purchase, and they make that punch list for your seller before you close that's on either a renovated or a new build property always get that inspection. I've talked about that before, and that often costs $500 or less on a single family home, and today it's about $800 or less on a duplex, well before my inspector even checks out the place. I like to let them know that I live outside the area, and I want their insight on the neighborhood as well. I mean, inspectors live locally there, so they'll probably be able to give you a good answer before they even do your physical inspection. They already know the area really well, and it doesn't even cost you any more above your normal inspection cost to just get a little on the ground intelligence. And of course, your inspector works for a company independent of your property provider, so their information should be unbiased. They work for you. Now after the inspection, how about your appraisal and some due diligence with that, what if your appraisal comes in low. Everyone wants to talk about if your appraisal comes in high, that's instant equity that you have, but see if the appraisal comes in low with a turnkey property where everything was renovated, that may or may not be a problem, because the comparables that were used for your valuation, they don't have everything renovated in them like your property does. So the subject property, the one that you've got under contract to buy that could very well have a lot of say, new plumbing, electrical, HVAC, the roof, bathrooms, paint, flooring, lighting, kitchens. I mean, most, or all of those components could be new in yours. It's common for yours to have all those components, and then the comparables do not have those now, you and your seller, you will have to negotiate on who's going to close the appraisal gap. I've discussed that part on a previous episode, but I'm point. Out how you can still be getting value even when your appraisal is low and it's worth it. Down the road, you're going to have less maintenance headache than your appraisal comparables will most of the time. Turnkey properties are renovated to cover major systems, and that means you do not have major expenses. Soon these expenses get wrapped into your mortgage payment, and that's a lot better for you than coming out of pocket three years later to replace an entire roof. Another thing to keep in mind is that a property provider that's been in business for a lot of years, they do not have interest in selling you a lemon of a property and hurting their reputation, but that seller does have a little interest in getting the maximum dollar. I mean, that's almost intrinsically natural in human beings. I mean, everyone has that motivation, just like you do when you sell your property down the road. So these rent ready or turnkey properties, they're almost always better if you're a busy professional or you just want to spend your time doing something else. I mean, I think that's a pretty well established concept in the investing industry, but I really think these rent ready properties, they are better for even more people than just busy professionals. I mean, consider the alternative, if you try to screen and identify a property yourself and do all the rehab and manage the contractors. I mean, first of all, you can be dealing with a hard money loan where you're paying four or five points plus a 12% interest rate, since that's all that's available for distressed properties, and unless you have experience managing contractors, oh, boy, you could have construction timelines that go over by several months. Well, now that can eat a huge portion of your investment that you thought you were making. You're paying 12% and you have no tenant all this time, but instead, when you buy a rent ready property, and you've got the best mortgage rates and terms from day one, and you've got a rent paying tenant from day one, and not all these headaches and time lost and contractors are trying to manage with turnkeys at GRE marketplace, those rehabs are done by crews that work full time for the turnkey provider, so they work at more affordable rates than what you could get as an out of state buyer if you're trying to patch together contract and crews yourself. So at scale GRE marketplace providers, they're also dealing with the same material types over and over again, so they're faster at doing it. The materials are also reliably sourced. You won't have the 10s or hundreds of hours managing all this, checking with the rehabbers, checking for quality control, making sure the amount of work that you were paying for was actually done. I mean, some people listen to this show and they had that real estate pays five ways, epiphany, that big light bulb moment, but then they try to do this rehabbing and investing themselves to save a few dollars, is what they thought, and it's rarely worth it. So avoid the massive time commitments with all this. I mean, you're also going to be doing other things, coordinating inspections and permits with city municipalities. I mean, what a nightmare. GRE marketplace providers, they've already done all of that for you and more now that you've bought the property, all right, what about the potential for poor management? Choosing your property manager is of utmost importance, because that person or firm, they're going to vet your tenants, handle the repairs, collect your rents and take care of any other issues at your rental property. They'll understand the local landlord and tenant law, you're going to be seeing the property infrequently, if you ever see it at all, so keeping an eye on things becomes key. Now, once you own the property and you have the tenant in there, there is always the potential for your property manager to do a poor job, costing you money, making your investment less lucrative, I like to ask my manager if they do regular property inspections, like getting inside the unit every six months. Now, you can read online reviews, like the star reviews, the number of stars for property managers. I mean, that could be helpful. It can also quickly get misleading. You can get a lot of bad reviews on an adequate manager. Because property management is such a tough job, I think that one of the best things you can do when vetting a property manager is to ask a friend. A lot of people don't have that option. So then do a search on the bigger pockets. Forums for your prospective property manager. So read reviews. Don't just look at star ratings. And I'll tell you, property management is one of the few areas in my life where I am willing to accept a service level of adequate or mediocre. Almost no one raves about their property manager, but I do have managers because they are the guardians of my quality of life, of your standard of living. We want them to serve our tenants, but I don't want 80 tenants being able to text message me. So there you go, armed with a number of due diligence items that can help you make sure that you buy your next income property, right? GRE marketplace, we typically connect you with the experience providers, but I'm telling you this because it's prudent to do some checking on your own and inquiring like this too, in case you have any doubt. Now, you notice on GRE marketplace, where you can connect with free investment coaching as well, that the properties, at times, they seem less expensive than you would expect. Why is this? Well, investor advantage markets, they have low prices. I mean, that's just one reason that they are investor advantaged like Ohio, Indiana, parts of Pennsylvania, Michigan, Missouri, Kansas, Nebraska, Tennessee, Arkansas, Georgia, Alabama, Oklahoma, Texas and some of the other Mid Atlantic states And Florida, another reason the GRE market prices seem low is that there is no agent that has to be compensated. It is a direct model. Another reason is economies of scale. Providers provide homes in bulk, so there are savings that way, and there also aren't any owner occupied emotions evolved with income properties. Those emotions can run up the price, or what they really do is they keep it stuck at a high price. So to help you review what you've learned today, a seven figure income is the new six figures. Real estate prices and rents just keep moving up, but modestly for the time being, a car loan can be good debt when you have a reasonable expectation that you can create arbitrage and sufficient liquidity in your life. And though income property is perhaps the most proven wealth generator ever, there are some mistakes to avoid when it comes to buying right between the guidance that you have today and the help of our completely free investment coaching another safety layer. If you're confident that it can benefit you, I encourage you to engage and move at the speed of instruction. It's the only way that you'll benefit I built this resource. I really wish it existed when I started out, and it's available for you at GRE marketplace.com, until next week. I'm your host. Keith Weinhold, don't quit your Daydream.

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Keith Weinhold 43:42

You know, whenever you want the best written real estate and finance info, Oh, geez. Today's experience limits your free articles access, and it's got paywalls and pop ups and push notifications and cookies disclaimers. It's not so great. So then it's vital to place nice, clean, free content into your hands that adds no hype value to your life. That's why this is the golden age of quality newsletters. And I write every word of ours myself. It's got a dash of humor, and it's to the point because even the word abbreviation is too long. My letter usually takes less than three minutes to read, and when you start the letter, you also get my one hour fast real estate video course, it's all completely free. It's called the Don't quit your Daydream letter. It wires your mind for wealth, and it couldn't be easier for you to get it right now. Just text GRE to66866, while it's on your mind, take a moment to do it right now. Text GRE to 66866.

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Mon, 31 March 2025

Keith shares some historical perspective on inflation highlighting the cost of a Taco Bell meal in 1999 to its cost today. He also touches on the concept of service inflation, where services like mail delivery and self-checkout at grocery stores have become less convenient but not cheaper.

Keith reviews the historical performance of real estate during the last eight recessions, noting that housing prices usually rise during recessions. He explains the concept of the Inflation Triple Crown: asset price inflation, debt debasement, and cash flow enhancement.

Housing prices usually rise during recessions, as demonstrated by historical data.

Resources:

To learn more about the Inflation Triple Crown go to: getricheducation.com/itc.

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546: What the Bible Says About Money

Complete episode transcript:

Automatically Transcribed With Otter.ai

Keith Weinhold 0:01

Welcome to GRE. I'm your host. Keith Weinhold, is higher inflation or even hyper inflation now in our future, and is an imminent recession, or even worse, a depression lurking. What's it all mean for your investments and your real estate? We'll investigate exactly what happens to real estate during recessions, historically today, on get rich education,

since 2014 the powerful get rich education podcast has created more passive income for people than nearly any other show in the world. This show teaches you how to earn strong returns from passive real estate investing in the best markets without losing your time being a flipper or landlord. Show Host Keith Weinhold rights for both Forbes and Rich Dad advisors and delivers a new show every week since 2014 there's been millions of listener downloads of 188 world nations. He has a list show guests and key top selling personal finance author Robert Kiyosaki, get rich education can be heard on every podcast platform, plus it has its own dedicated Apple and Android listener phone apps build wealth on the go with get rich education podcast. Sign up now for the get rich education podcast or visit get rich education.com

Corey Coates 1:19

You're listening to the show that has created more financial freedom than nearly any show in the world. This is get rich education.

Keith Weinhold 1:35

Welcome to GRE from Hartsdale, New York to Springdale, Utah and across 488 nations worldwide. I'm Keith Weinhold. I think you know that by now, you are inside one of America's longest running and most listened to real estate investing shows. This is get rich education. Most people have two plans. Plan a get rich. If that doesn't work out, the alternative is Plan B, which is hate rich people.

We are firmly rooted in plan a for you here. So yes, we're about building your wealth, but ultimately we are a lifestyle improvement show. I'm going to get to high inflation and the potential for a recession or depression in just a minute. But I recently got a reminder on the fragility of life and its finite nature. My oldest friend recently died. He was almost like a mentor to me, a friend of mine's grandmother recently died, shattering her world, and it's a reminder that you won't be remembered for the money that you make. You won't even be remembered the real estate portfolio that you build. I mean, that surely won't last. The tennis that you serve, they'll die as well. I will be forgotten. This show will be forgotten. The people that love you, their opinions will die with them. Your Haters, their opinions will die with them. You can confirm that this is true right now by naming your eight great grandparents for me, there. Go ahead. You can't do it. I can't either. So what can you do, at least in this finite life that you have on earth? What you can do is enjoy your existence. The good news is, because you can control this, you can control enjoying your life and existence as get rich education is ultimately a lifestyle improvement show, and we are squarely helping you do that right here. And one way that I've done that over the years is by pointing out how inflation is actually advantageous to real estate investors. Well, it impoverishes most people. You're initiated on that by now. That's something that you really found out tangibly back during the pandemic. Now today, though, wow, people are frightened. I've got some contemporaneous material to share with you today, but I'll give you some lessons so that even if you're listening to this 10 years from now, you're going to learn some lessons. Americans inflation expectations for the next five years. They just hit the highest level since 1993 Yeah, expecting a lot of inflation, tariff pressures are a huge concern now. Last week, inside our newsletter, I sent you something that gave you some perspective on inflation. I sent you a photo of a Taco Bell receipt from 1999that might have left your mouth agape if you didn't see it. I'll tell you about it here and expand on this. And yes, it could leave you aghast, stupefied, gobsmacked, or even flabbergasted. In a sense, 1999 was not that long ago. It's sure not like ancient history. I mean, I was alive then, yes, I am here, and I'm from the 1900s. Well, this 1999 Taco Bell receipt that someone found perfectly preserved in the pages of a book. It shows a complete meal that was purchased for $3.50 it was actually just $3.26 and then the rest was tax added in. That's 350 for a chili cheese burrito, a taco nachos and a 16 ounce Pepsi. That's not the price for each item. That is the combined total from 1999 All right, how much do you think those same items would cost today? I don't eat there. I went to the Taco Bell website and found out. I mean, what an inflation measuring stick. This is what cost, 350 A Taco Bell in 1999 costs $11.44 today I use the same sales tax rate to come up with that. So today it's 1144 and today they also ask you a question a Taco Bell, if you want to round up for the kids or something like that, and then just watch, pretty soon, they're gonna request a tip too. That's a 327% price increase, and few people's wages have risen that much since 1999See, I told you that you would be left slack job and flabbergasted. All right, so let's look at where we are today. Now it's not an apples to apples comparison, but you know, Taco Bell is a fast food restaurant. Let's look at the price of a consumer item at a sports stadium today. All right, because both are places that everyday Americans frequent college basketball's March Madness tournaments have been taking place the last few weeks. Well, for the first time ever, the SEC is selling beer at its tournament. The price for one large premium draft beer is $17.50 so before tax or tip, 1750 for one beer all in that might be $20 or more, and I doubt that the beer is really that premium. I mean, you know what kind of beer you get at stadiums. So we look at inflation, one beer today is at least five times the cost of a complete Taco Bell meal in 1999

that's price inflation, and that's the stuff that's highly perceptible. Okay, you've been seeing that effect all of your life. It's making most people poorer. It's making real estate investors wealthier. And then there's the inflation that few people consider the less perceptible stuff, service inflation. And what are some examples of service inflation growing up the postal service delivered mail right to my parents porch, and they still do deliver mail right to my parents porch. Their neighborhood was built more than 100 years ago, but look, when new neighborhoods are built today, like places I've lived and perhaps where you live now, the postal service doesn't deliver your mail right to the individual mailbox on your porch. Today, you've got to walk both ways to your neighborhood's mailbox cluster. Some people even have to drive to get their mail. So your mail is no longer being delivered. Really, you have to go pick it up. Well, they don't lower the price for that reduced service level. That's service inflation. A second example is more obvious, grocery self checkout. You're taking the time and doing the work of scanning your groceries, but yet, they sure aren't lowering the prices of your lettuce and your beef jerky. And look service, inflation is here to stay. That is because companies make investments in it. The Postal Service bought those mailbox clusters, the supermarket bought those self checkout kiosks.

All right, so with this ramp and price inflation and service inflation, along with it, and the other forms of inflation that I've talked about on the show before, like stagflation, tip inflation and Shrink flation and skimpflation. What is an individual investor like you supposed to do? Well, stock and mutual fund investors get killed by inflation. I mean, think about it this way, just killed if the Sp5, 100 gains 10% but there's 5% inflation. That's a 50% hidden tax on your gain, plus you might pay capital gains tax. On top of that, savers really get obliterated. I mean, just destroyed if your bond yield or your savings account pays 4% interest, and there's 5% inflation. That is a 125% hidden tax on your gain, and then you might pay regular tax on top of that. So stocks and mutual funds and savings accounts are not the answer. What is the answer? Real Estate and borrowing the opposite of saving. And let me address now, whenever people get fearful that another wave of inflation is coming, whether that's tariff induced or otherwise, let's not get carried away and think that Hyperinflation is right around the corner, although definitions of hyperinflation vary, the most accepted one by economists is a 50% inflation rate per month, not annually, per month. So that would be over 600% a year, with compounding. I mean, that would be really hard to get, but what we do know is that inflation is still elevated above the Fed's 2% target. It's 2.8% today. And what we do know is that more inflation is coming at what rate nobody knows. These facts almost necessitate that you have either got to start your own business, which is tough, or become a real estate investor which is easier, in order to escape this and acquire some lasting wealth. Any devoted listener here knows that the formula for beating it is luckily, not highly sophisticated, not esoteric, not anything that you need a degree or certification for, just own income properties with loans, and that's when inflation produces three profit centers. As we know that is something that I coined as the inflation triple crown. So if you're new, you're learning something. If you've been around here for a while, here's a little comprehension test for you. What are the three crowns in the inflation Triple Crown, you win with asset price inflation, debt debasement and cash flow enhancement. Asset price inflation benefits you because you have leverage gains debt debasement passively lightens our debt burden for us, and then cash flow enhancement, that boosts our cash flow above the inflation rate, because our principal and interest payment stays fixed. And you can learn more about that totally free. You don't even have to leave your email address or anything. You can watch the three videos of the inflation Triple Crown at get rich education.com/itc. For inflation, Triple Crown, it's just good free learning for you there I've made available at get rich education.com/itc, it is a foundational financial education. Is a recession or even a depression eminent, that's straight ahead. I'm Keith Weinhold. You're listening to get rich education.

You know what's crazy? Your bank is getting rich off of you, the average savings account pays less than 1% it's like laughable. Meanwhile, if your money isn't making at least 4% you're losing to inflation. That's why I started putting my own money into the FFI liquidity fund. It's super simple. Your cash can pull in up to 8% returns, and it compounds. It's not some high risk gamble like digital or AI stock trading. It's pretty low risk because they've got a 10 plus year track record of paying investors on time in full every time. I mean, I wouldn't be talking about it if I wasn't invested myself. You can invest as little as 25k and you keep earning until you decide you want your money back. No weird lockups or anything like that. So if you're like me and tired of your liquid funds just sitting there doing nothing, check it out. Text family to 66866, to learn about freedom. Family investments. Liquidity fund again. Text family, to 66866

hey, you can get your mortgage loans at the same place where I get mine at Ridge lending group NMLS, 42056, they provided our listeners with more loans than any provider in the entire nation because they specialize in income properties, they help you build a long term plan for growing your real estate empire with leverage. You can start your pre qualification and chat with President Chaley Ridge personally. Start Now while it's on your mind at Ridge lendinggroup.com that's Ridge lendinggroup.com

you

Dani-Lynn Robison 15:45

This is freedom. Family investments. Co founder, Danny Lynn Robinson, listen to get rich education with Keith Weinhold, and don't quit your Daydream.

Keith Weinhold 16:00

Welcome back to get rich Education. I'm your host. Keith Wynne Holland, you are inside episode 547. I'll tell you, being a landlord or real estate investor can really change you now. I was using the stair climber at the gym just before talking to you today, I like to set up a big fan down on the floor to keep me cool before running or climbing. Plug it in, set up a fan. When I'm done, I turn off the fan. It's just a habit. I don't pay the electricity bill at my gym, but it's just the way that I would want to be treated. But you know what? When I find a fan that's already set up before I grab it and start on the treadmill. That fan is always running when no one is using it. No one turns off their fans when they don't have to pay for the electricity. And this reminds me of when I owned apartment buildings in Anchorage, Alaska, and tenants kept their windows open, even during the frigid winter, so that they could get fresh air. Yeah, you can guess who was paying the heating bill. It wasn't the tenant. It was me. The larger the apartment building is, the more likely that the owner is the one that pays for more of the utilities. And of course, in that case, you can look into utility sub metering. That process can be costly, but it might be worth it. It can increase your cash flow and your net operating income, which, when it increases your net operating income, that means that it also increases the apartment buildings value. And you know, in real estate today, you've got to look for where the opportunities are. There are opportunities in every market today. For places where there are specifically good opportunities are apartment buildings where their values have fallen 20 to 30% in some markets, it's wise to invest in beaten down sectors that you just know are going to come back like you know, the demand for apartment buildings is going to be there long term. This doesn't mean that you want to invest in any beaten down sector, like Office real estate in general. I don't see how that's coming back. A second strong real estate opportunity today is to find over built pockets, especially ones that exist in Texas and Florida. I mean, this is why they call them buyers markets. A Texas or Florida seller might make you a deal, and that doesn't mean everywhere in these states. For example, Southwest Florida is one area that's specifically over built, even amidst the national landscape that's under built. A third and a fourth area of specific real estate opportunity today are two that I have mentioned before, but they persist. That is still brand new, properties where many builders are still motivated to buy down your mortgage rate to about 5% even 4.75% in some cases, and new builds have low insurance premiums too. And then a fourth opportunity. That's something that we've covered a good bit here these past few weeks. BRRRR, real estate investing, buy, rehab, rent, refinance and repeat. That's a specifically good strategy if you don't have, say, hundreds of 1000s of dollars in liquidity to invest. Now you might ask, do those four strategies have validity? Do they have cogency in today's market, where there are these fears of an economic slowdown. Oh, yes, they do, or I would not have gone over them, but these palpable recession Fears are growing, and some are even asking, is a new Great Depression eminent? There is tons of bad economic news right now, not just in the US, but the global economy is on the edge, starting earlier this month, stock market tremors have turned into full blown convulsions. Trillions of dollars in wealth have just vaporized, wiped out. Investors are rattled, consumers are anxious. Business owners are confused, and those in power in the administration, they insist that tariffs and policy swings are all just part of a transition period, but a transition to what some have even asked, Is the everything bubble finally about to pop. Is this the brink of a recession or something even deeper, a D pressure? Well, one thing is undeniable, from stocks to crypto asset prices recently made a free fall, and I've got some long term lessons for you today, even if you're listening to this years from now, including what a phenomenon like this historically means for the real estate market, it's about what really happens to property values during an economic recession. Stocks recently had their worst week since 2023 barreling toward an all out bear market crash. A bear market means when 20% of the value has been lost from a recent high. Even Bitcoin, the poster child of speculative excess, has cratered. The carnage has been everywhere. But yet, instead of taking steps to prevent an economic meltdown, the administration in power, whether you like them or not, they have introduced more and more radical policies that could accelerate the crisis. Now, some of the tariffs could help long term, but the short term pain is perceptible, and you've got to be able to survive it. We've got new tariffs on multiple countries, and these are our biggest trading partners, even if these import taxes diminish, this is already strained friendships long term, especially with Canada. These countries keep retaliating with tariffs of their own, Canada, Mexico, China and the EU government spending is being slashed. Mass layoffs of federal employees have been underway for a while now. This is not just an economic experiment. I mean, this is a high stakes gamble with global consequences. So is this a detox period, or is it an economic freefall? Treasury Secretary Scott tebescent described this economic shift as a necessary detox period. That's the phrase that he used, and yes, I need to acknowledge there is no more grandma Yellen running the Treasury for long time, listeners, that is a reference to the long running joke about how my late grandmother resembled former Fed chief and former Treasury Secretary, Janet Yellen, but anyway, according to Besant, the US must break free from what he calls its addiction to government spending in return to private sector growth. Now, hey to me, that sounds good. Actually, that sounds like a good plan for the long term. But here's the problem, that addiction has been the lifeblood of the US economy for decades. And you know, this is something that regular GRE guest macroeconomist Richard Duncan has talked about when he's here. Remember what he's told us for over a decade here on the show, if the US doesn't have 2% real credit growth, credit expansion, well then we go into a recession. Well, what happens when the government cuts spending during soaring consumer prices due to trade wars? What happens when businesses hesitate to invest in the face of extreme uncertainty? Well, the bad news is that tariff whiplash and massive layoffs mean that businesses can't plan, and when businesses can't plan, they freeze. Look, just the other day, I talked to the President of a manufacturing company they make stainless steel tube valves and fittings. Due to all the tariff uncertainty, he's had to set up a reserve account based on what happens next, all right. Well, with that reserve account, that means that that's not money that's going into equipment reinvestment, that's not money that's going into making new hires. What happens when more confidence shatters and markets spiral lower? We may be about to find out. So has the recession, which is a precursor to any depression, already begun? Well, the warning signs are multiplying. Most ominously at last check, the respected Atlanta Fed tracker is now forecasting a more than 2% contraction in US GDP this quarter. That is quite a drawdown and two negative GDP quarters in a row. I mean, that is the definition of what a technical recession is. And here's a quick history piece for you in 1930 to try to quell the effects of the Great Depression, tariffs were passed. Alright. Do you know how badly that turned out back then in 1930 it was called the Smoot Holly Tariff Act. It raised tariffs to try to collect more revenue for the government. It didn't work, and the US sunk deeper into the Great Depression, with rampant unemployment and poverty and social unrest. There was a rise in crime, there were bank failures, even hunger and malnutrition. That's what a depression looks like, right there. Well, back to today. Right now, consumer confidence is collapsing. Retail Sales are plunging. The bond market is signaling distress, and yet those in power appear kind of oblivious to the magnitude of the risk. So what if it's not a transition and it is a start of something far worse? And see, this is just part of what's made investors raise their bets on a recession. Stocks are down like a global trade war has begun. Crypto has fallen like risk appetite has collapsed. Bond prices are rising like inflation is declining, and experts have priced in a 52% chance of a recession in the next 12 months. Okay, 52 that's like flipping a coin and just hoping that it lands on good news. Now in the real estate world, when we talk about direct threats from tariffs, as I've touched on before, the biggest direct threats are tariffs on lumber and on gypsum board. The lumber is used in house framing and trusses. Gypsum board, that just means drywall, the base case for tariffs on Canadian lumber alone, that adds about $10,000 to the cost of a new build typical single family home, which in turn jacks up all existing housing prices and their replacement cost. But let's look beyond that now at market factors. How is real estate adversely affected if the economy slows? Though historically. Let's look at how recessions really affect housing prices, and this is, again, as I like to say, where we take history over hunches. It's easy to have a hunch about what you think is going to happen, but let's look at what has really happened. How do real estate prices perform during recessions. When we look at the last eight recessions, okay? And the most current of those was in 2020, and then when we go back eight recessions ago, that is the 1960s Okay. Well, let me move along in chronological order here, during those eight recessions, starting in the 1960s leading up to today, housing prices, and this includes single family homes up to multifamily apartment buildings, they were just rounding to the nearest whole number here, up 5% there in The late 60s, in that recession, and then up 18% up 14% in the next recession, and then no change, down 1% and then up 6% and then down 13% that was during the 18 month recession, around 2008 and then finally, home prices were up 8% in the latest recession, alright. So in our total of eight recessions since the 1960s home prices only fell significantly one time, and they usually rise that one timethey fell. Let's explore that. That was during the 2008 global financial crisis, which involved more than just the recession. It was a deep recession, that's why it's called the Great Recession, but it also involved more than that. 2008 was special because that was a time of housing oversupply and low homeowner equity positions and a complete mortgage meltdown backed by flimsy liar loans. Well today we are in the opposite of all three of those conditions. We have a housing under supply. Americans have a record 300k plus in protective equity that they are not going to walk away from. And more.

Underwriting is stringent, the opposite of a liar loan. So housing prices usually rise in recessions, and if we're teetering on the brink of a recession, there are a lot of reasons to think that housing prices will go up yet again. And by the way, I felt what was happening back in 2008 I invested through it. I think I let you know before that, that's when I owned two four Plex buildings, 2008 but it didn't feel that bad to me, because my properties were temporarily suppressed in value, and that part didn't feel good, but my rents and rental demand went up because no banks would give loans to borrowers to buy properties, so I wouldn't want to sell when the buildings were paying me a higher than ever monthly income. But let's not lose the greater point what I'm telling you here that housing only fell significantly one time through the last eight recessions. That demonstrates the resilience of the housing market. And by the way, those stats were sourced by the NAR and the NB er National Bureau of Economic Research. All right, so why is this? Why is housing resilient in the face of a recession? There are a few reasons, but a main one is see, even if and when times get tough, people still need a place to live, and they will pay for it, especially now, when they have record equity, people are motivated to make mortgage payments and make rent payments, or else they are going to be homeless. So tough times when consumers they get less likely to pay for their car loan are less likely to pay for student loans, and when they default on credit card payments, that's when this stuff happens, but people will fight like heck to avoid losing their home. I mean, people will pay for food, shelter and safety. And also, when it comes to recessions, let's not forget how many bad just God, awful, wrong recession calls there were from over the past two to three years. I mean, the so called experts were wrong, wrong, wrong. Today, the economy is actually starting from a good place. And what do I mean here today, consumers still have money to spend, and they probably will. This is huge, because consumer spending is 70% of the economy, but how will they respond when these higher tariff induced prices hit more shelves at Walmart and Target? We'll see unemployment is still so low that it's practically down there doing squats. But you know these numbers, they're always backward looking, so it does only aim to get worse. The labor market is firm. Interest rates have been pretty steady. They've fallen a little. Energy prices are still down. So really, the bottom line with what I've shown you so far is that federal policies have induced economic trauma, and it does increase the chance of recession over the next 12 months. During recessions, housing is a top performer, and interest rates usually fall as well, and specifically interest rates of all types, including the Fed funds rate, mortgage rates, pretty much every interest rate type, they tend to fall in the mid and late stages of a recession. So this is what you can expect based on history, not hunches. But as for a depression, that is super unlikely. We haven't had one in 90 years, and today. I mean, come on, we have seen what the powers that be do. We can see how they respond to crises. They will just print and print and print more dollars to help pave over any problem. And that's not responsible long term, and it creates more inflation, but that's exactly what the government did to pull us out of the Great Recession and to pull us out of the COVID slowdown. We'll review what you've learned today in just a minute, but let me tell you, though you may very well have the majority of your capital smartly invested in real estate, since that's where the long term wealth creation is, those funds are not very liquid. So what about your liquid funds? Like I pointed out early in the show today, amidst higher inflation expectations, inflation really destroys those in the stock market, and it absolutely crushes savers. Savers really get destroyed, because if your bond yield or your savings account pays you 4% interest, and there's 5% inflation, that is a 125% hidden tax on your gain. And if that's the. Damaging enough there might be tax that you have to pay on that gain, which is not really a gain. This whole thing was a big loss.

So for some people, including me, what I do is become a lend. Lord, yes, I get a higher yield by lending to others a lend. Lord. I mean, why settle for just a, say, four and a half percent yield on your liquid funds? I mean, that's the level at both the 10 year bond and the savings account yield today, about four and a half percent. I've parked my own liquid funds for a steady 8% yield that I've been getting for years with a long time established real estate company. I make the loan to them, they have paid on time, every time, for that steady 8% return. And see, when you understand that directly investing in real estate pays five ways, and that a 20 to 30% total ROI, therefore is common and even expected. You can understand how they can pay you and me an 8% return on your liquid funds. You can see where the arbitrage is. Just a little insider tip here. It's called Freedom family investments. If you want to learn more, text family to 66 866. Their minimums are pretty low to 25k and you don't have to be accredited. So for steady 8% returns from the same place in the same vehicle where I've been getting my 8% you can just do it right now. What's on your mind? Text the word family to 66866.

Let's review what you've learned today, Americans have higher long term inflation expectations than they've had since 1993 a 1999 Taco Bell receipt really brings to light how much inflation you have experienced in your life. Though, higher inflation can come. Hyper inflation is unlikely. Let's not get carried away. The prospects for a recession are 52% in the next 12 months, per a plurality of experts, but a depression is really unlikely. Now you know how real estate performs in recessions and why it holds up so well it even tends to appreciate coming up here on the show are some prominent guests, including the leader of rezzy club. You might know about them. Sometimes I share their great charts in our newsletter. Yes, rezzy Club's Lance Lambert will be with us. Also, Legacy finance expert Laurel Langemeier will be here with us on another upcoming episode. Thanks for being here, but you weren't here for me. You were here for you. I'm Keith Weinhold. Don't quit your Daydream.

Dolf Deroos 37:53

Keith Weinhold 38:16

You know, whenever you want the best written real estate and finance info. Oh, geez, today's experience limits your free articles access, and it's got paywalls and pop ups and push notifications and cookies disclaimers. It's not so great. So then it's vital to place nice, clean, free content into your hands that adds no hype value to your life. That's why this is the golden age of quality newsletters. And I write every word of ours myself. It's got a dash of humor, and it's to the point because even the word abbreviation is too long, my letter usually takes less than three minutes to read. And when you start the letter, you also get my one hour fast real estate video. Course, it's all completely free. It's called the Don't quit your Daydream letter. It wires your mind for wealth, and it couldn't be easier for you to get it right now. Just text. GRE to 6866 while it's on your mind, take a moment to do it right now. Text, GRE to 6866

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Mon, 24 March 2025

Keith hosts a discussion with Pastor Jon Sanders on the Bible's teachings about money.

They explore the context of biblical verses, emphasizing that wealth itself is not sinful but how it's used matters. They discuss tithing, noting it's a principle of generosity, not a legalistic rule. The Bible does not condemn real estate or property ownership, as it is not explicitly forbidden.

Wealth can be a tool for doing good and providing housing for others.

Resources:

Explore the EntrePastors platform to learn more about Pastor Jon Sanders' work in helping pastors with entrepreneurship and financial management.

Show Notes:

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545: Eliminating the Property Tax, DC Real Estate Crash, Future Inflation and Interest Rates

Complete episode transcript:

Automatically Transcribed With Otter.ai

Keith Weinhold 0:01

Welcome to GRE, I'm your host. Keith Weinhold, what does the Bible say about money? Is it virtuous to acquire wealth, or are you going to hell for that one Bible verse reads, "it is easier for a camel to go through the eye of a needle than for a rich man to enter the kingdom of God". I asked Pastor John Sanders all about it, as well as what other religions say about money today on get rich education

since 2014 the powerful get rich education podcast has created more passive income for people than nearly any other show in the world. This show teaches you how to earn strong returns from passive real estate investing in the best markets without losing your time being a flipper or landlord. Show Host Keith Weinhold writes for both Forbes and Rich Dad advisors, who delivers a new show every week since 2014 there's been millions of listener downloads of 188 world nations. He has a list show guests and key top selling personal finance author Robert Kiyosaki, get rich education can be heard on every podcast platform, plus it has its own dedicated Apple and Android listener phone apps build wealth on the go with the get rich education podcast. Sign up now for the get rich education podcast or visit get rich education.com

Corey Coates 1:19

You're listening to the show that has created more financial freedom than nearly any show in the world. This is get rich education.

Keith Weinhold 1:35

Welcome to GRE from Bel Air, Maryland to Bel Air, California and across 188 nations worldwide. I'm Keith Weinhold, and this is get rich education. I hope that your week's off to a good start with 546 weekly episodes. We've approached investing from a lot of angles. Commonly, it's a strategic approach, but there are other wealth building approaches we discussed here, like mindset, what type of vehicle you're going to use, the academic perspective, the protective approach, then there's a mathematical angle. But today, for the first time, it's the theological perspective. Now, even if you're not a Christian or religious at all, what the Bible says about money has import, because the Bible is the number one selling book of all time, so it surely affects the mindset and the approach of those around you. I've got a pretty inflammatory question for you, if money is the root of all evil, then why do they ask for it at church? Now I say that a little jokingly. We're going to debunk that in fact and more as Pastor John joins us shortly, I will hit that verse head on and ask him about it, the verse that says it is easier for a camel to go through the eye of a needle than for a rich man to enter into the kingdom of God. I'm really interested in what he says about that. I mean, in fact, that's actually something I wanted to know about for decades. That's always piqued curiosity inside me, and especially since I'm the 10 plus year host and founder of a platform called get rich education. There's a lot I'd like to ask about that. There is more that I'd like to ask about, if we get time. I'd also like to know what the Bible says about tithing and real estate and gambling and more. Let's meet Pastor John.

With over 20 years in pastoral ministry, this week's guest, also has a passion for using his voice to motivate and inspire ministry leaders. His father was also a pastor. He is non denominational. Hey, welcome to GRE Jon Sanders.

Jon Sanders 4:04

Keith, this is my pleasure to be here. Man, been looking forward to this conversation, so thanks for having me on the show

Keith Weinhold 4:09

me too. We're doing something really different this week. I've been anticipating it, and I sure have some specific things I want to ask you, even some Bible verses later that are somewhat antagonistic to wanting to build wealth. But before we drill down and get into that, just big picture, John, when we talk about what the Bible says about money broadly, what should we keep in mind

Jon Sanders 4:34

with anything when it comes to Scripture? One of the greatest principles to keep in mind is that context matters, because without context, you can make the Bible say about anything you want it to say. And that's probably what we're going to dig into a little bit, is that if you just read a verse in one little snippet and divorce it from not only its context, but the rest of Scripture, you can come away with a pretty skewed view, as many people in the world. Have, as well as many people in the church, many Christians have a skewed view about money and about wealth because of some, you know, certain verses that I'm sure we'll get to today, I would say just an overarching principle, context matters, and hopefully we can show a little bit of that context in our conversation and just see that maybe what you thought the Bible says about money is not, in fact, what the Bible says about money. We'll see where this goes.

Keith Weinhold 5:24

Context matters and mindset matters. You know that we're a real estate investing show, but episode number one of the get rich education podcast from 2014 is titled, your abundance mindset. Do Christians worship a God of abundance, where he would want you to use your God given talents to flourish and produce and make more in this world. Or do you not see it that way?

Jon Sanders 5:53

I 100% see it that way. And what's interesting to me is that as believers, we would say, many of us would agree with things like we believe in this limitless God who spoke the universe into existence by nothing more than the power of his spoken word and just the abundant world in which we live like we believe in that God who can do all kinds of miraculous things. And yet, then, when it comes to the subject of money, so often, we live out something very different than that. With such scarcity, we act as though there's such limited resources at our disposal, and our thinking is so enmeshed in poverty thinking and scarcity thinking. And I think as God's people, we ought to be some of the most abundant thinking people there is because we are supposedly tapped into the most abundant source the world has ever known. So there is a discrepancy there, but I'm 100% with where you are on that we serve an abundant God, and we would do well to think in abundant terms, because I think we're gonna find that his resources never run out.

Keith Weinhold 6:57

Right? We're here to think abundantly in flourish. One thing I like to say is, don't live below your means. Grow your means. Christians should when I'm asking you as a pastor, I would think they would believe that God was an abundant creator. He created the earth that we live on a gigantic piece of real estate.

Jon Sanders 7:17

Yeah, and so much more. And like I said, it never runs out. Whether we're talking about his physical resources or we're talking about the more intangible resources that we can't necessarily hold in our hands. There is always more than enough with the God that we serve. And yet, how then do we come to such places of scarcity and limitation? I would contend this Keith that if someone is actually reading the Bible, applying the principles to their life, they will inevitably, more and more grow in their wealth and in their abundance and in their ability to manage well the resources that God has put into their hand. Now that's not the same as what some might put into the category of what they'd call the prosperity gospel, where God wants everyone to be rich and never to have any sickness or financial difficulties like those are not the same messages. We're not all promised the same exact outcomes, but I believe if we follow the timeless principles, the laws that have been established by the Creator that he's shared with us through His word, I think we can expect to flourish and thrive and prosper and do well and continually grow whatever resources he's put into our hands. As a matter of fact, I would point to a parable that Jesus told, many of the parables that Jesus told in the Gospel accounts of Matthew, Mark, Luke and John, many of them deal with money. Now, all of Jesus's parables got to a deeper, like more Kingdom spiritual lesson. But in many of them, he used something that all of us can relate to, and that is money. Because scripture has a lot to say about money. And then, specifically, in one of those parables in Matthew 25 I believe Jesus told a story of the master who represents God in the story how he gave differing talents or financial amounts to three different servants based upon their own abilities. And right in there, there's some truth that we can learn and apply, that we don't all have the same abilities, but God allows us, He gives us certain things that are in our capability to handle, and then with that comes an expectation that we manage that well, because it doesn't actually belong to us. That's a big principle of money in Scripture is that none of it actually belongs to us. All of it belongs to the Lord, but we are stewards. That's kind of a Bible word. We are the managers of the resources He's given us. And even from that parable I mentioned in Matthew 25 there is an expectation that we take what has been entrusted to us and we multiply it. And if we fail to do that, the words of the master that Jesus. In that parable, were you wicked and lazy servants? The words of the master to the one servant who basically squandered what had been entrusted to him, he was called a wicked and lazy servant. So there's an expectation that we are not wicked and lazy servants, but that instead, we take whatever resources have been entrusted to us and multiply them for the good of God's kingdom and for His glory. So that's just one. I mean, there's countless stories that Jesus told that we can learn principles like that from.

Keith Weinhold 10:30

I think building prosperity is being the opposite of laziness or sloth. Is it bad to be wealthy?

Jon Sanders 10:39

I would say, according to the Bible, 100% No, it is not wrong or immoral or sinful to be wealthy. We can point to many heroes of our faith who were men and women of great wealth. We can also point in Scripture to wicked people who also were men and women of great wealth. So the question is not whether or not someone has money. That's not what sets them apart as righteous or wicked. It's what they do with that money. It's how they live. It's their character that really is what we measure that by. And so here's what I would contend without money, it's really hard to do good things in the world. You're very limited when you put money in the hands of good people, those people can use those resources for all kinds of good purposes and to help a lot of people. I mean, that's just common sense, and so it's not a bad thing for righteous people to multiply their wealth and to grow in their wealth in order to be in a position to help even more people.

Keith Weinhold 11:39

The way I think about it, is that producers and entrepreneurs, they need to give first before they can create any prosperity for themselves. And what's foundational in our mission here at GRE is to do good in the world, provide housing that's clean, safe, affordable and functional. You're giving you're qualifying for a loan, you're buying property, you're taking on risk before anything can possibly come back to you and John here, I've often touted, hey, we provide housing that's clean, safe, affordable and functional. We can maybe abolish the term slumlord, for example. So that's what I'm talking about with doing good in creating prosperity for ourselves as a result of that.

Jon Sanders 12:24

Yeah, and I'll point out another biblical principle that you just outlined, whether you realize it or not, and that is the law of sowing and reaping. It's the law of the harvest. You don't have to believe in God for this to be true. If you go plant something, you will get more of the thing you planted, if you tend to the soil well, and if the conditions are right, and you mentioned it, that is risk. Like there's risk involved. Every time a farmer goes and sows seed into the soil, like there's no guarantee that I'm going to get that back, things can happen. It's a believable risk. It's a relatively manageable risk. It's a risk, nonetheless, to take a great amount of seed and put it into the soil in faith. And I want to point that word out. There's faith when we as entrepreneurs go out, we're acting in faith when we take that risk. And again, it's something that we have to kind of weigh it out, is this a wise risk to take? But at the end of the day, there still is no guarantee. But there is that law of sowing and reaping and the law of the harvest. And I think God honors that, I know he honors that I believe he is honored by our faith. It literally can be an act of worship done to him was we go start businesses, as we invest in real estate, as we buy properties like that, actually can be part of our worship, and us fulfilling the very purpose for which God put us here, to manage what he's given us, to multiply it, and then to do good with it, as you're describing. I agree totally.

Keith Weinhold 13:48

that's a good point. It really is an act of faith to provide an income property, faith that you're going to have a rent paying tenant, faith that you're going to be able to maintain the place, faith that you're buying a property in a market where you have a good expectation that you're going to be able to have future rent paying tenants. Yeah, it really is an act of faith. Well, John, there are some specific verses in the Bible that are really well known and deal with money. One is the often misquoted verse that everyone is familiar with. And what's misquoted is that people say that money is the root of all evil. But as we know, that verse from the book of Timothy is misquoted. It is for the love of money that is the root of all evil. Can you tell us more about that, why it's misunderstood, and actually, just what that really means for the love of money is the root of all evil,

Jon Sanders 14:42

by the way, just stepping back a second in the conversation to your question, is it wrong to be rich? Here's another supporting text where the answer is no, because the verse you're speaking of the apostle Paul wrote this in a letter to Timothy. He's telling Timothy again, in the context, he's telling Timothy. To address the rich people in the church and say some things to them, teach the rich people some things, and he didn't tell them, you know, shame them for having wealth and for being rich. Instead, he's teaching them how to be rich, how to be a good rich person. And it's in that context where that line is found, that the love of money is the root of all evil. Fast forward to modern times. We've kind of thrown the word love out of it, and we just said, There it is. Money is the root of all evil, and we say it with a sense of self righteousness. As I'm sitting here, broke, living paycheck to paycheck, I don't want to be one of those evil rich people. That's not what it says at all. It's saying the love of money is the root of all evil, and we do need to step into this for just a moment. There are warnings in Scripture about money, because if we don't realize and recognize the power of wealth and the power of money, I believe probably one of the reasons God's word says more about money than it does so many other topics is because the danger that money has to compete with God himself. I often say I don't think it's God and the devil that are in competition with each other. In many ways, it's God and money, because Jesus even said you can't serve both. You can't have two masters. You'll either love the one or despise the other. That doesn't mean you can't worship God and have money. It says you can't worship them both, because your allegiance is going to go one way or the other, and the more wealthy we become. There is a danger in that, or maybe even before the wealth shows up. If there is this just burning desire to be rich above all else, it can pull us off course. It can pull our focus away from the Lord. So there is a warning in that that we should heed and listen to. Apparently, according to Scripture, money is powerful, and it's powerful for good and it's powerful for evil. And so if we're going to have some of it, and if we're going to grow the amount that we have, it sounds like it's a pretty powerful tool that we ought to know how to use and how to use properly, no different than when you throw the keys to the car to your teenage driver, like we just put a very powerful tool in their hands, and we pray and trust that they're going to use it wisely and not drive it off the cliff, you know, or kill someone in the process. And money's very much the same way. So the warning is good, but what's not good is to take it out of context and build this paradigm of somehow, the less money I have, the more righteous I am. And in the platform that I'm building, we have a online community. We call it entree pastors, that specifically helps pastors do better financially through entrepreneurial business man, we combat this mindset all the time, because we're dealing not only with people who've been in the church most of their life, but people who have led in the church, and there is so much scarcity thinking around money that we have to address so many of these themes that you and I are unpacking right now. So yeah, often I have found myself taking people to this Scripture and having them read it again and again until they hear themselves say that the love of money is the root of all evil, not having money that is not the root of all evil, it's the love of it. So hopefully that helps shine some light on that confusion

Keith Weinhold 18:15

yes, so one can take it too far if it becomes the love of money? Well, there is a verse in the Bible. In fact, I think it occurs in more than one place. That verse is it is easier for a camel to go through the eye of a needle than for a rich man to enter the kingdom of God. How does someone that's building wealth for themselves square that up. We're going to talk about that more when we come back. I'm talking with Pastor John Sanders about what the Bible has to say about money. I'm your host. Keith Weinhold,

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Chris Martenson 20:40

this is peak prosperity. Chris Martinson, listen to get rich education with Keith Weinhold, and don't quit your Daydream.

Keith Weinhold 20:56

Welcome back to get rich education. We've got a pretty special episode today. Our discussion is what the Bible has to say about money, and we're talking with Pastor John Sanders. He's breaking it down for us. John, this is the one thing I thought about more than any other before chatting with you today. It is that well known verse about the camel going through the eye of a needle. And John, I first remember my mom telling me about this verse. Perhaps I was as young as age 12, and that verse is, it is easier for a camel to go through the eye of a needle than for a rich man to enter the kingdom of God. Here I am a 10 plus year host of a show called get rich education, helping people build wealth ethically through real estate investing. But how do we square up that verse if we're looking to make more of ourselves financially?

Jon Sanders 21:53

Yeah, and like we said at the beginning of the show, if that's all it said, and if that's the only thing you knew, you would come away from that pretty convinced that Jesus thinks it's impossible to love God and also be rich, like there's just no way a rich person can enter the kingdom of heaven. But as we said, context matters. So if we kind of zoom out a little bit and look at the greater context of what's happening in that passage of Scripture, you will recall, and maybe some are hearing this for the first time. But there was a rich man who approached Jesus, and he basically was kind of wanting to justify himself, and so he asked the question, you know, what good things must I do to inherit eternal life and inherit the kingdom of God? And Jesus starts by saying, follow the commandments. And this rich guy basically says, I'm paraphrasing all of this. You can go read it for yourself, but he's saying I've done all those things which, by the way, side note, No, he hasn't. None of us have followed all of God's 10 Commandments and more, like we just I've broken every single one of them. We're all sinners. Probably you have too Exactly. So he's already off base, this rich guy. So then Jesus hits him where he knows it's gonna hurt, and he says, Okay, here's the one thing you're still lacking. Go sell everything you have and give it to the poor, and then come and follow Me. And what it says is that the rich man turned away very sad, because he had great wealth, and see Jesus exposed what this man really worshiped in that I don't believe that that is a commandment from Jesus to all of us to go, sell everything we have, give to the poor and come follow him. That was a specific statement spoken to this specific man, and it did exactly what it was meant to do. It kind of smoked out the real heart issue that was happening here. So then Jesus turns to his disciples after this man walks away sad because he was not willing to pay that price. And that's where Jesus makes this statement that is so classic, where we all know, you know, it's easier for a camel to pass through the eye of a needle than for a rich man to enter into the kingdom of heaven. If you keep reading a few verses later, Jesus goes on to say, with man, this is impossible. But with God, all things are possible. So it is possible for a rich man to enter the kingdom of God. It may be more difficult. It may be more challenging because, as we said a minute ago, when we do have great wealth, that wealth competes in many ways with our heart for the place that God wants to hold in our heart. It is easy when we have margin and we don't need God as much, or we don't think we need God as much. We don't necessarily have to humble ourselves as much when I have all these resources. But that's not impossible. It is possible for godly people to have great wealth and to bow in humility before King Jesus, and to worship Him, and ultimately, to inherit the kingdom of heaven and be better for it, and not, you know, worse off. So again, I hopefully that explains that a little bit or gives some more light to that, because if you just take that little snippet, you're essentially taking it out of the greater context and missing the point, and you're. Making the point something that Jesus never intended, which was to say, rich people can't get to heaven. That's a mishandling of that text

Keith Weinhold 25:08

yeah? Because I think it states that, or something close to it three times in the Bible, in the Quran, the Muslim holy book, also has something similar in it, yeah.

Jon Sanders 25:19

And again, I know in in the New Testament, where it's mentioned multiple times, it's probably because it's found in those Gospel accounts that basically tell the same story just from four different authors. So that's sometimes where you see that repetition in the New Testament is because it's the same story being told just from a slightly different vantage point a different author. But the principle is there, to try to say that scripture forbids people from being wealthy or from pursuing wealth, would be a complete misstatement. It's simply not true. You know, to read scripture in its entirety, you can walk away from it with this understanding that God, not only is he not opposed to wealth, but God is the source, because he owns it all. It all belongs to him, and he actually the more I walk in faithfulness with what he's given to me and what he's entrusted to me, the more I can actually expect will be given to me, because I will see the fruits of those labors multiplied. That's the path I'm on right now, unashamedly, unapologetically, I am working on growing wealth, not only for my family in this generation, but scripture says a righteous man leaves an inheritance to his children's children and man, what if we started telling that story more than trumpeting these verses that make it sound like God is really upset with people who have Money? What if we actually encourage God's people to go build wealth and create more of it? Yeah, because

Keith Weinhold 26:46

I've heard a few different takes on that verse, John, about a rich man not being able to enter the kingdom of God. You know, some have joked, Oh, does the church just want you to put everything in the offering plate and not have anything for yourselves? Another take on it, I guess. If I read the verse closely about how a rich man cannot enter the kingdom of God, well, don't die rich. You be wealthy and then bequeath everything to your heirs upon your death. So technically, you're not dying rich. There are a lot of takes upon that verse. Really appreciate getting your perspective and your interpretation on that context piece being really important, John, when we think about what the Bible says about money, in the intersection of both money and the Bible, oftentimes we think about tithing, which I think of that is giving a 10% of your income to the church. So do you have any thoughts about tithing, or just some of the other general things that the Bible says about money.

Jon Sanders 27:41

I certainly have some thoughts, but more importantly, Scripture says some things. So it really doesn't matter what John thinks about it, but tithing is a controversial subject, so let me start with maybe something that's not so controversial, and we can jump into the tithing. Here's something that is not controversial from Scripture. The more we give, the more of a blessing it is for us. The more that we can give, the more God blesses us. God blesses generosity. So hopefully we can all agree upon that For God so loved the world John 316 that He gave His one and only son. So there's a direct correlation between loving and giving. And the more that I give, the more God seems to bless my life. And I know it sounds cliche, if you grew up in the church, we always heard statements like, you cannot out give God. The more I give, the more God gives back. And again, I'm careful to say that because I don't want to treat God like a cosmic slot machine where I put in $1 and pull the lever and hope to get 100 it is, again, it's just one of those laws that God has established that he blesses generosity. So then the question just becomes, what does our giving look like? What does our generosity look like when we look to Scripture, Old Testament? Bottom line tithing was, I mean, it was commanded. It was part of the overall giving that God required of his people. And a tithe is a 10% of the first fruits 10% off the top. And it's like when people argue that, or they say, Well, I'm tithing 2% that's like saying you ran a three mile marathon. My marathon is not three miles, right? Yeah, tithing is 10% the question is, is tithing for modern day believers? Are we supposed to be doing that? I will share my quick thoughts with you. I believe we are under grace. We are no longer under law. So I don't think that this is a matter of salvation. It's not at that level. But I will say this, I believe Jesus commended tithing, and I'll tell you where it took place, and you can go look at this on your own if you want. I think it's in Matthew 23 again, the context is not really about tithing. The context is Jesus is dealing with the religious establishment. The people he had the harshest words forever were the religious leaders, and he's taken them to task. And he says in there, like you guys tithe off of your mint and your dill, like you're tithing off of everything, like the illegal. Stick level, and yet you're ignoring the greater elements. You know, mercy, love, sacrifice. And then he goes on to say, You should do the first without ignoring the second. And I'm paraphrasing again, so go read it for yourself. What many people look at that passage and they say, here it is, Jesus commended tithing. He basically said, No tithing is good. You should do that. One other case I would make for New Testament, tithing is simply this. When Jesus stepped onto the scene in the New Testament, He never lowered the bar that was set in the Old Testament law. He actually elevated it. I'll give an example. Jesus said something like you have heard it said, You shall not murder. But I tell you, if you hate your brother, you're worse than a murderer. So he elevates it from just the physical act of killing to the heart condition of hating that leads to the killing. He did the same thing with adultery. You have heard it said, Thou shalt not commit adultery, but I tell you, if you look at a woman with lust, you've already committed adultery in your heart. So he raises the bar, not lowers it. So my question has always been, when it comes to tithing, would we believe Jesus to lower that bar and say, Ah, it's not important. Don't do it. You don't need to do it. Or would we expect him to raise the bar? I actually think the bar has been raised. He commended the poor widow that gave everything she had, and it wasn't much, but it was 100% sacrifice, and Jesus praised her. Now I don't think he's that's prescriptive of all of us to go drain our bank accounts, but I think what God is celebrating in the New Testament is sacrificial giving. For me personally, my personal opinion is that tithing is just kind of a good starting place for biblical giving. But I don't hold it up as a legalistic rule that says Thou shalt tithe based on what we see in the Old Testament and how we see it transition over into the New Testament. That tithing is not a bad idea, but if you're a modern day Christian that says I don't believe in tithing, I don't think I need to tithe. Okay, cool. I'm not mad about it. My challenge to you then would simply be this, what does generosity look like to you, and are we lowering the bar? Are you pushing back on tithing because you desire to give less? And if so, maybe there's a heart condition. There of you wanting to cling to something instead of being open handed. It's not my place to sit and look over your shoulder and go. You need to give more of your income. I mean, the Holy Spirit does a better job of being the Holy Spirit than than I do. So really, that's between you and the Lord. But my question and my challenge to modern Christians would be, what does generosity look like for you. You know, what is your discipline or your habit, your system around giving? If there is none, I personally think that's a problem. I think there ought to be some level of generosity happening in your life, because you'll be blessed, and God will use you to bless others. And that's a pretty cool thing, when God gets to channel his resources through you to someone else. So I don't believe everything that God allows us to have in our hands is 100% for us to hold for ourself. I think some of it is he's using us as a channel or a conduit to flow those resources in other directions. So those are just a few kind of high level thoughts of not only what Scripture says about tithing, for sure, but also maybe how we might look at it in a New Testament context,

Keith Weinhold 33:23

there's some good questions for you, the listener, to ask yourself when it comes to the framing and the importance of your giving and your tithing. John, what does the Bible say about real estate or property?

Jon Sanders 33:35

There are places I can't tell you you know exact location in Scripture off the top of my head, but I know there are places in Scripture that talk about going and purchasing land, or somebody owning land, and so I believe scripture upholds the idea of personal private property, and private property ownership, obviously, under the context of what we said earlier, that all of it ultimately belongs to the Lord. But I think it's a good thing. I certainly will tell you this. It's not condemned in Scripture. I know of nowhere in Scripture where we are forbidden from pursuing real estate or pursuing land. Is it like I say on the flip side, I could find examples where people bought and sold land. I'll give you one. Just popped into my head. In the early church, Ananias and Sapphira, they actually were put to death. And it's a really deep story. The issue, the reason they were judged instantly is because they lied about it. But they had land, they went and sold it, and they did not give all of it to the church leaders. And that was not the issue. The issue was they lied about the fact that they were giving all so they wanted to look a certain way, and that's the sin that God was kind of rooting out of the early church. But right in there, I think it's in like Acts chapter four, maybe or five, right in that area, it says directly, was not the land yours before you sold it and after you sold it, was not the land the money yours to keep. Why have you done this wicked thing? And the thing, again, that they were being judged for was lying to the Holy Spirit. And it was kind of like in that moment in the early church, the Lord was saying, we're not doing this like we're not going to live this fake, hypocritical life. And he judged it instantly, kind of grateful that God doesn't still deal with us in that way. It's not to say that he could not. That's a quick story that popped into my head as an example of buying and selling land. So if you do buy and sell land, just don't lie to the Lord about about how much you sold it for, because he knows it was his in the first place. He knows how much you sold it for. So just be honest in your dealings. There you go.

Keith Weinhold 35:39

Well, I'm grateful that the Bible doesn't say you have a limit of five rental properties. That's really good to hear. Right? Well, John, as we're winding down here, we've talked about Christianity and what the Bible says about money. Are there any non Christian religions that, just if you could spotlight one, that have a really interesting approach to money, whether that's Muslims avoiding debt, or anything, Hindus or Buddhists believe just any one thing. That's particularly noteworthy with non Christian religions approach to money.

Jon Sanders 36:09

I'm going to acknowledge a lot of my ignorance when it comes to other world religions. I can speak of one thing very locally to where I live, I don't know. It's kind of a religious thing. It's kind of a cultural thing. So where I live in South Dakota, I'm surrounded by, you know, an Indian reservation not too far from me. And the Native American culture is very prevalent here. And one thing that's been interesting to me to learn over the years is that, as I understand it, the Native American culture does not believe that you can own property. So they don't own land. They don't believe in owning land, at least historically, traditionally. So again, is that a religious thing? Is that a cultural thing? Not exactly sure. I don't share that belief, but it's an interesting take on things. So I'm sure there's so much more that a different guest could give you in terms of insight on other world religions when it comes to, you know, their view on certain deaths and philosophies around finances and things like that. For me, I really have studied one very deeply, and that's Christian faith. So I don't really feel like I'm much of an expert to speak from those other perspectives.

Keith Weinhold 37:18

Well, John, this has been enlightening to me. I've learned some things, and I sure might now know how to explain my way out of the whole camel in the eye of a needle. Verse there, if someone wants to learn more about you, tell them how

Jon Sanders 37:34

you can look me up online. I have a website called entrepastors.com me and my partner, les Hughes, as I said earlier, we help pastors provide better for their families through entrepreneurial business. If you want to connect with me, if you just go to entrepasters.com all of the links to connect with my social media and everything else are right there, and I'd be happy to jump on a call or serve you in any way that I can. So I would welcome you reaching out.

Keith Weinhold 38:01

Oh, thanks a lot for offering that to our audience. It's been a pleasure hosting you.

Jon Sanders 38:05

Thanks, Keith. Been a fun conversation. I appreciate you having me.

Keith Weinhold 38:15

Oh, yeah, good stuff from Pastor John today. I did not know that Pastor John would agree with me this much. I guess I'm frankly, a little relieved I learned some things too. Check out his platform again. It's called entre pastors. This was definitely an anticipated episode here today. The good news is we've got more anticipated episodes amidst an expected economic slowdown in potential recession. What actually happens to real estate in a recession? I will cover that and then with a lot of political turmoil and policy change coming from the White House that promises to massively swing the economy. I would like to have someone that's inside the White House and advising President Trump himself on his economic policy to come here on the show so that I can go ahead and ask them about it. Well, that's hard to do while they're in office and the administration is in full swing like this. So speaking of anticipated shows coming up here on the GRE podcast in future weeks, we have the financial advisor, the budget director of a past president that advised that president in the White House. He will be our guest here on the show. You'll learn what you can expect from him for the next nearly four years. And you know, something that might be even better to have that past president's White House Advisor here on the show, because he will feel emboldened to be more critical. Perhaps. Stay tuned for that big thanks to the terrifically knowledgeable John Sanders today in. Till next week, I'm your host, Keith Weinhold, don't quit your Daydream.

Dolf Deroos 40:07

Keith Weinhold 40:31

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Keith discusses the potential elimination of property tax, highlighting its impact on home affordability, rent stability, population influx, and retiree financial relief. Florida Governor Ron DeSantis supports a constitutional amendment requiring 60% voter approval to abolish property tax.

Hear about the broader economic implications, including the potential for increased sales tax and widened wealth inequality.

GRE Coach, Naresh, analyzes the impact of federal layoffs on the DC housing market, predicting a decline in home values and increased private sector job opportunities. Both emphasize the importance of the BRRRR strategy for real estate investors.

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544: Rents vs. Prices: The Changing Landscape of Real Estate

Complete episode transcript:

Automatically Transcribed With Otter.ai

Keith Weinhold 0:01

Welcome to GRE. I'm your host. Keith Weinhold, there's a proposal to eliminate the property tax. Is a Washington DC real estate crash upon us, then a terrific guest and I are talking about the future of interest rates in inflation. And finally, an event you won't want to miss all today on get rich education.

Speaker 1 0:23

Since 2014 the powerful get rich education podcast has created more passive income for people than nearly any other show in the world. This show teaches you how to earn strong returns from passive real estate investing in the best markets without losing your time being a flipper or landlord. Show Host Keith Weinhold writes for both Forbes and Rich Dad advisors and delivers a new show every week since 2014 there's been millions of listener downloads of 188 world nations. He has a list show guests and key top selling personal finance author Robert Kiyosaki, get rich education can be heard on every podcast platform, plus it has its own dedicated Apple and Android listener phone apps build wealth on the go with get rich education podcast, sign up now for the get rich education podcast, or visit get rich education.com

Corey Coates 1:09

You're listening to the show that has created more financial freedom than nearly any show in the world. This is get rich education. You Keith,

Keith Weinhold 1:25

welcome to GRE from Fort Carson, Colorado to Carson City, Nevada and across 188 nations worldwide. I'm Keith Weinhold, and you are in for another wealth building week at get rich education. I don't like to predict interest rates, because it's really hard to do. But it does get interesting today, because our guest says that he will with his tight read on the economy, this is a unique time, perhaps in my entire life, where we have more new policies shaping the economy and real estate. Then, anytime I can remember, policies are made by politicians, but we don't get into the politics here, rather the policies and how it affects you and her. Any of these policies spicier than this one from earlier this month. Be mindful that this voice is from a person that made his name as a real estate investor.

Donald Trump 2:29

I also have a message tonight for the incredible people of Greenland. We strongly support your right to determine your own future, and if you choose, we welcome you into the United States of America. We need Greenland for national security and even international security, and we're working with everybody involved to try and get it. But we need it really for international world security. And I think we're going to get it one way or the other. We're going to get it. We will keep you safe. We will make you rich, and together, we will take Greenland to heights like you have never thought possible before. It's a very small population, but very, very large piece of land and very, very important.

Keith Weinhold 3:17

Yes, the long time New York City Real Estate Investor there has gone well beyond Gotham now with plans to expand America's real estate empire, if you will.

Is this imperialism or America First policy? Or is it abject comedy? I guess that it could be all three. I'll let you decide. Well, the federal policy shakeups like that, also what they seem to be doing are emboldening others, including at the state level, where Florida, interestingly, recently proposed eliminating the property tax, taking it to zero. What is property tax free? Real Estate coming to you as well. Let's look at the prospects for this and what the effects would be of eliminating the Property Tax with some things that you probably never thought about before, and yes, your mind might shoot ahead. You might anticipate saving 1000s in lost tax dollars every year, even saving over 10,000 bucks a year per single family home in high tax areas. And you know, property taxes, sharpest critics, they say you have got to get rid of this thing, because you basically just endlessly rent your house from the government, and the rent goes up every year, and so therefore it's like forever rent that you have to pay. What's even worse is that the. Amount of property tax you pay is based on your homes or your apartment buildings market value. Well, because the government prints so much money and creates inflation that pumps up all the housing values, many of which are fake, inflated gains, and then your property tax goes up based on this phantom gain. And we've really seen that over the last five years, both real gains and Phantom gains. And then, plus, of course, each full dollar that you earn from your work right now is already taxed, say, down to just 70 cents, is what you've got left over. Well, then your 70 cents is further whittled down by property tax and all the other taxes that you have to pay out of that currently, all 50 states have a property tax every one of them, and you might already know that property taxes, they're basically highest in really two main places. When we look at property tax as a percent of your income. Those places are Texas and the Northeast, where they're upwards of 4% even 5% in fact, it's more than 5% of your income every year that goes to property tax in the state of Maine, but it's 4% or more in a number of states. And of course, if you don't pay them every single year until you die, the government will repossess your home from you. And almost 5 million Americans lose their home every year, many of them to this tax foreclosure. And in the US, the property owner pays the property tax, of course, but effectively, renters do too, because as landlords, we pass it along to tenants. It's embedded in that market rent amount, all right. Well, can we end the property tax? Well, former presidential candidates like Ron Paul and Herman Cain have proposed it. They didn't get elected. Texas has discussed it a lot, but yeah, it's Florida that has newly and boldly proposed eliminating the property tax. And like falling dominoes, if this gets abolished in one state, it increases the chances that more will follow. And Florida is a big state, the third largest in population. Well, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis came out and said this, taxing land and property is the more oppressive and ineffective form of taxation. That's what he said. Now let me tell you why he says that before we look at the chances that property tax will be eliminated, DeSantis says it's oppressive, because look see, you can personally dodge your income tax by making your paycheck smaller, although that might not be desirable, you sure could, and you can certainly avoid sales tax by consuming less, but see there is no escape from property tax. That's the oppression that's being referred to here. Let me tell you where we're at with eliminating the property tax, and then what the absolutely Titanic impacts of this would be DeSantis goes on to say, property taxes are local, not state. So we'd need to do a constitutional amendment which requires 60% of voters to approve it, to eliminate them, which DeSantis supports, even to reform or lower them. Right? But he goes on to say this, and here we go. We should put the boldest amendment on the ballot that has a chance of getting that 60% that's the end of the quote. Okay, so that's what it's going to take to eliminate property tax in Florida, where, if it happens, it could be a model for other states to follow, like we're seeing a little bit with the zero income tax states. All right, here's what I think would happen if they were eliminated. First home affordability would massively improve, skyrocketing property values. So many more people could afford the lowered monthly payment without property tax making prices soar, especially the values of lower price to median priced homes. They could really bring those into the affordability range, and they are the exact ones that make the best rental properties. What about rents? If property taxes went to zero, rents would stay stable. Landlords would do little or nothing to drop them. That's just how it works when people are already used to paying a certain price. Also population influx to the affected area. I mean that population influx that already works for states in attracting residents. That have zero state income tax, it would with property tax too. I mean that would clearly be desirable for people to own property tax free homes, especially in the beginning, before this settles in and those home prices soar. Also, retiree financial relief would take place. Those people on fixed incomes would really be helped. But you know what would not happen with governments slashed property tax revenue. They couldn't reduce their spending proportionally. I have no faith that they could. They would have to get their income from elsewhere and see shifting away from property tax over to beefing up your sales tax, that would hurt poor people the most. For example, in Florida's case, it's been studied, and they discovered they would have to increase their sales tax from the current 6% up to 12% to maintain the same services. Can you imagine 12% sales tax, and another effect of abolished property tax is that wealth inequality would widen because the property owners are the ones that benefit the most. So those are the big effects. But look, there are more problems eliminating property tax, that means the areas would need to find another way to pay for schools and roads and parks and local services like police and emergency responders. Maybe some of that stuff could be privatized. But if the tax, if that were just shifted away from local government and that went toward state and federal government, well, then local control would be lost. So that is a really undesirable side effect. But as a real estate investor, come on. The prospect of an abolished property tax that has got to excite you. I wouldn't count on it happening anytime soon, but now you know more about the prospects for it happening and what the impact would be with an elimination of property tax.

coming up soon. Here on the GRE podcast, what the Bible says about money when Pastor John joins us, it's going to be a show unlike any we've ever done before, and maybe will ever do again. You might not be a Christian or religious at all, but this is still relevant to you, because the Bible is the top selling book in the history of the world, and it has an indelible influence on the people around you. The book the Bible, says some things that make you wonder if wealth accumulation is even virtuous. We're gonna face those verses head on and get pastor John's insights there. That's a really anticipated show. I'm also gonna ask him what other religions have to say about money. Also some well known guests down the road here on the show, including the get rich education debut of Laurel Langemeier and more. LAUREL she was known as the millionaire maker since back in the days when a million dollars was actually a lot of money. To be sure that you don't miss these upcoming episodes on your pie catching device, hit the Follow button right now while it's on your mind and you'll be all set. Let's meet with this week's guest.

This week's guest is a familiar one, because he's on Team GRE, yeah, it's an in house chat with our super helpful investment coach. What he does is he helps you devise your big picture real estate strategy all the way down to connecting you with the exact right property addresses. He does that free at GRE marketplace business speaker Jim Rohn said, formal education will make you a living. Self education will make you a fortune. He's got both with an MBA from Duke. Then he worked at both banks and financial publishing companies before landing here at GRE in 2021 but importantly, for years now, he's been an active real estate investor, just like you and I are. Hey, a big welcome back to the show. Naresh Vista,

Naresh Vissa 14:13

hey, thanks for that wonderful, wow, amazing introduction, and thanks for having me back on. It's been a few months.

Keith Weinhold 14:20

Yeah, we haven't heard from you since October here. So what's going on in the real estate and economics world? From your vantage point, everyone's got a different slant on it based on what they see.

Naresh Vissa 14:32

There's a lot happening. As you know, Keith and our listeners, I'm not sure if they're following, but we're seeing tremendous, tremendous changes in the financial markets in general, and the financial markets include the real estate markets, and the impact is going to be widespread for better or for worse, I think, for better over the long haul. So what I'm talking about right now is, for example, interest rates, mortgage rates, home value. Use inflation, those are all very important parts of the economy. And we have this new government department called Doge, the Department of government efficiency. And Doge has gone in. And I loved your newsletter where you talked about Doge a little bit, and the walk that I took, as you called it, the awkward walk with a box full of your stuff or something like that. The sure, because I've been fired before. Yep, yep, it's happened to me once too. I took the awkward walk with the box of of random stuff. Yeah, lots and lots of of layoffs are happening within the government. The private sector continues to lay off people as well, like it usually does, and this is a big deal. The reason why it's a big deal is because aggregate demand. I don't want to say it will be killed, but we're already seeing an impact on home values in places that are very dependent on government workers, places like Washington, DC, Virginia, Maryland, there's actually a 10% year on year decline in home values in those areas. I don't know if you knew about that, Keith, but that's been the impact, and that's based off of the February statistics, the February numbers. So we've seen a decline, and that decline will likely spread to other areas that are dependent on federal workers, or where federal workers make up a good chunk of the local economy. I bring this up because we have providers in Maryland who we work with, who GRE has worked with for three or four years now, and they're seeing somewhat of a decline in the area as well. Because just you don't have to work in DC to be a federal worker. You can work in a major city like Baltimore or in a suburb in between Baltimore and BC. So we're seeing somewhat of a decline in our investors have all of a sudden gotten interested in investment property in the Maryland area because they knew, hey, we know GRE works in the Baltimore operates in the Baltimore area, and just want to scope out some homes. So previously, two years ago, three years ago, when list price was not negotiable. Now all of a sudden, the sellers are open to offers when there was no budging on offers three years ago. So I bring this up because the Department of government efficiency, I believe, to my knowledge, we're up to six figures. More than 100,000 workers have either been laid off or taken the buyout package, so we're somewhere in the six figures of people who got that now, they do have eight months severance. But with that being said, you would think that most humans, they'll immediately start looking for the next job. They're not gonna just enjoy for eight months and then scramble to find that next job. So this is having a widespread impact on housing, home values on it's going to have an impact on interest rates. We're seeing that interest rates are coming down, and if there's any sign, which I don't think there is, but if there's any sign of a recession, if there's any sign of bleeding, then the Fed is going to start cutting interest rates again. So I think we saw peak interest rates a few months ago, those interest rate values, those mortgage rates, aren't going to be going back up anytime soon. We know that almost it's almost a fact that we know that, because the Fed is not going to be raising rates, the most punishing thing they can do is just keep rates steady for a long period of time. But I didn't anticipate that later this year, they're going to start cutting again because of these widespread mass layoffs.

Keith Weinhold 18:32

And of course, Washington, DC is essentially ground zero for these federal layoffs. Federal jobs account for about 25% of DC jobs. You the listener, probably find it to be no surprise that that is the highest in the nation. But of course, this can also affect private companies, those private companies that have federal government contracts as well, and Naresh, before we open it up to the nation, we just think about DC. Do we have any idea of what properties are going to be hurt the most? A lot of times you might think of that in the case of what is the income range of these federal employees that are being laid off now, a lot of them are probationary employees, meaning that they're in their first year of employment.

Naresh Vissa 19:19

Well, it's a huge mix keep. That's a really good question, because I think a broker, like a real estate broker who's trying to sell will try to beef up the price and say, Oh, this doesn't affect us, and this only affects very high income folks. Well, that's the fact of the matter. Is there, if you work for the federal government, you're not necessarily ultra high income or ultra high net worth, you get the perks, and you get perks of working a government civil servant Job while taking somewhat of a lower pay. So it's actually a mix, because you have people in the first two years of employment. So the youngsters. Now, those aren't your homeowners, though, the 2223 24 those. Just say the people in their mid 20s, they're not the homeowners, they're the renters. So you can expect them to leave. They'll probably if they can't find a job, which it's going to be much harder to find a job in that DC area, they may move to Philadelphia or New York or California or wherever they can find a job. They'll just get up and move and move, and that's one of the benefits. I did that when I was in my early and mid 20s, many times where I just packed up and moved. I was more than happy to do it. So they're not your homeowners, but the homeowners are going to be the people who are getting laid off. So there are mass layoffs happening right now, and those people are homeowners, and then the people who are taking the buyout packages very likely, because they're either approaching or at retirement age, and it remains to be seen whether those people it's like a retirement gift, like, Hey, this is a great party. You know, getting eight months of free pay. Like, that's pretty amazing and happy retirement. Or maybe folks were like, they didn't say for retirement all that much, and they were planning to work another 10 years. Those are the people who could be sellers. Bottom line is, when you have this amount of mass layoffs, and we're seeing it in the data, there are more homes for sale today in that DMV area. I By the way, I used to live there. I used to live in in Maryland, great. More homes for sale today than I believe in the lab, definitely over the last five years. And it could be even over the last 15 years, to my knowledge.

Keith Weinhold 21:29

And for those that don't know DMV, that means Delaware, Maryland, Virginia, that area, yep. So

Naresh Vissa 21:34

there are more homes for sale, and the home values actually are now. This is a crazy thing. The home values in on average are back at 2020 levels. So basically, the peak of 2020, is what the home values are at today. And just my prediction. I don't think it takes a genius to predict this, but the layoffs are just getting started. They're just scratching the surface, and they're going to continue, because this Doge is a an 18 month program or an 18 month project. It's supposed to, it was called the Manhattan Project of our time. So they're just scratching the surface. And I'd expect home values in those areas to continue to fall. And you're gonna see it's not immediate. It's not like there are mass layoffs one day and then home values fall the next month. A lot of these effects, we won't start seeing them where the DC area won't start seeing them. 678, months down the road,

Keith Weinhold 22:27

Doge is more than just a meme coin. Now our own in house investment coach, Naresh Vissa and I are talking about the state of real estate today. More we come back, including nuracious thoughts on the future direction of inflation. This is Get Rich Education. I'm your host. Keith Weinhold

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Jim Rickards 24:34

this is author Jim Rickards. Listen to get rich education with Keith Weinhold, and don't quit your Daydream.

Keith Weinhold 24:49

welcome back to get recidiation. I'm your host. Keith Weinhold, it's an in house chat with our own GRE investment coach, Naresh Vissa. He's been talking about the fallout on DC area. Jobs with the regime shakeup that we had in the White House starting earlier this year. And Naresh, I know that you have some thoughts about what this can do to the future direction of inflation. Tell us about it.

Naresh Vissa 25:12

Well, the first thing Keith is, if you look throughout history, or even your lifetime, what we saw from 2021 until today, really, because inflation is going up. I don't want to say it's going back up, but it is going up. We've seen an inflationary cycle that I've never seen in my lifetime. It's worse than any short term inflation cycle that this country has faced, at least in my lifetime. And I was born in the late 80s, let's just say 1990 and moving forward. So I bring that up because this is some pretty bad inflation that the world and that the United States has seen, and we don't need to get into all the details about how it happened or the mistakes that were made at the time when the Fed should have started raising rates, when the government should have stopped spending. That's all history. Moving forward, I'm actually very optimistic now that we've actually reached peak inflation. And when I say peak inflation, I mean during this micro cycle where inflation has gone back up from a 2.4% rate to a 3% rate. I think that's the highest we're going to get during this micro cycle. It did reach some I believe it was above 9% in 2022 yes, we're definitely not going to going to reach that. But 3% is still too high for the Federal Reserve. It's still too high for Americans. It's a major reason why Americans went to the voting boots and or the ballot boxes and made the decisions that they made because of inflation. It's the most important issue on most Americans minds. And I bring this up because I'm very optimistic that we've seen this 3% peak and that we're going to be going down moving forward because of the first half of this interview, the fact that all of a sudden, it is a sudden thing, because a lot of people weren't expecting this, I was, but a lot of people weren't expecting these mass government layoffs. And these mass government layoffs, they hit corporations. They hit private businesses. Anyone with a government contract is going to be hit anyone who was profiting off of waste, fraud, abuse, which you'll be surprised how many private and many times this is legal, like it's legal waste, it's legal abuse, and all of a sudden those checks are going to stop coming in, or the way of doing those business practices are going to stop because the government is clamping down on it. Why? Because it's taxpayer money, and taxpayers are upset. So the pullback or the elimination of waste, fraud, abuse, is definitely a good thing, but also the mass layoffs, we're going to see a decrease in aggregate demand. And when we see a decrease, I'll just say demand. I mean, that's more common, so we'll see a decline in demand. So when there's a decline in demand, what happens? Prices go down, and we're already seeing it. There's already proof of it. I already I brought up the housing market in the DMV area, and I can also tell you oil prices, for example, which is one of the main drivers of inflation, oil and gas energy prices one of the top three drivers, along with government spending. So you got mass layoffs, which will kill a lot of that aggregate demand, you have the oil, gas and energy, and then the reduction in government spending. So all that combined is going to lower inflation, going back to the energy prices, oil is down for really since the inauguration. That trend should continue, given the policy change, and that drives it drives inflation, it drives deflation, it drives pricing, because any good that you need, it's probably going to be transported with the use of energy the microphone you're using, Keith, how was it shipped? Maybe in a truck, and the truck is powered by fuel, or maybe something was sent in an airplane or in an actual ship. All that requires energy and fuel. So if you can lower energy costs, then we're going to see a continued decline in inflation, and energy costs continue to fall, continue to plummet. So I think this is good for inflation. Yes, it is. There is pain. We talked the first entire half of this episode on layoffs. Layoffs are they're painful. Taking that Walk of Shame is painful. There is going to be pain. But at the same time, remember, there are more than 10 million available private sector jobs, and we already have more than a million jobs that are opening up as a result of investment within the United States since January, 20 of this year. We have companies like Apple. We have Taiwan, semiconductor, Eli Lilly, the list goes on and on and on, of major corporations, big corporations, mid sized companies, who are opening up more operations within the United States. So the private sector jobs, which are really the innovative, long lasting jobs, they are growing there is just a tremendous. To opportunity, especially for young people. If I was young again, I wouldn't want to work for the government. I'd want to go work for one of these companies, where they're essentially going to be recruiting and begging youngsters to come work for them

Keith Weinhold 30:12

to corroborate nourishes lower inflation expectations. Since the beginning of the year, we've had a fairly sharp decrease in bond yields now. GRE listeners know by now that mortgage rates somewhat move with Jerome Powell's federal funds rate, but they're more closely tied to bond yields, specifically the yield on the 10 year T note. Okay, so then what makes the 10 year go lower? Hence, mortgage rates along with them, that is lower inflation expectations in a slowing economy. And another reason that bond yields and hence mortgage rates with them, fall, is when people sell stocks and make a flight to safety into bonds, that pushes up bond prices and lowers bond yields. So again, those are two factors that move bond yields and, resultantly, mortgage rates. And that's what has been happening.

Naresh Vissa 31:08

absolutely. And the important thing to remember something you touched on and what I talked about earlier, which is, yes, there is going to be a reduction in federal government and federal government jobs, and I think this is going to pass on to states as well. I think many states, in fact, I know that many states, even blue states, are taking a look at their books and saying, hey, you know what? We should be making cuts too. Because states, they operate on much tighter budgets, whereas the federal government, they basically have access to a printing press. State governments do not so the point that I'm making here is that, yes, it's painful. We're going through some pain right now. The DMV area is going through some pain. The stock market has gone through some pain. The Crypto markets have gone through some pain. Everyone's gone through some pain, but they say no pain, no gain, and the jobs are being transferred, as I brought up earlier, from the government sector to the private sector, and the private sector is where we can see tremendous, tremendous growth. Look at GRE for example, we're a private company, and we've seen tremendous growth, right? Tremendous growth in just innovation and and our services and our offerings. Now, imagine a bigger company that, and how much growth they can have. I think overall, I'm very optimistic and about inflation coming down, hitting that 2% target by the end of this year. In fact, I think it'll hit that 2% target a few months before the end of the year. And once we hit that target, then the Fed is going to start cutting rates again, and there's a chance that they may even start cutting rates before we hit that 2% target. I don't think they should. I thought they made a mistake doing that last year when they started cutting, when inflation hit 2.4% I think or two and a half percent, they started cutting again. I think the inflation rate has to hit actually 2% across the board, and then they can start with their gradual cutting. So if somebody asked today, hey, narration, which many do as, hey, how low do you think interest rates are going to go this year? My answer is not very low. This here, you'd have to have a cataclysmic Black Swan event, which it's called Black Swan because none of us can predict it, none of us can see it. So you'd have to have an event like that for the Fed to just basically slash rates overnight, which I don't see anytime soon. The other most popular question I've gotten this week is, are we going to go into a recession? You know, it seems like the world is falling apart and world war three and and stocks are tanking, and crypto is tanking, and this is tanking and that's tanking. This is when people told me a few weeks ago, actually. And my answer is, No, I don't think we're going to see a recession unless there's a black swan event. But I don't think so. And the reason is because of the tool that the Fed has. The Fed can cut, cut, cut. That's one of the Ben now, if we were at low interest rates, if we were at, let's say, historic low interest rates, and we were in this situation today, I would be very pessimistic and say it's not looking good. But any sign of a recession, the Fed is going to act at their next meeting. They won't even need to call an emergency meeting. They'll act at their next meeting, whenever that may be, they'll act and start cutting rates, and that's going to quickly stimulate the economy and get investors like our folks, because that's going to affect the bond yields, that's going to affect the mortgage rates, and investors are going to jump in to buy real estate, and people are going to jump in to buy discounts in the stock market, et cetera, et cetera.

Keith Weinhold 34:44

To your point, thank goodness the Fed has some ammo. Since the federal funds rate is about 4% they do have some ammo, and they can cut that rate down. You can imagine if the Fed funds rate was zero, like it was a few years ago, and they couldn't make cuts because they don't want to. Make it negative. So Naresh and I here talking about a number of forces that are largely outside your control. So these are the sort of things you can keep your eye on. However, there is something you can do that's very much in your control, and it happens this Thursday, where you can join Naresh and a co host on our upcoming live event. Tell us about it, Naresh.

Naresh Vissa 35:22

well, like you said, it's this Thursday, we're going to be talking about the BRRRR strategy, which has become the most popular real estate investment strategy. GRE has seen in its existence. Our investors are almost hooked onto this burst strategy. We're going to talk more about it on the webinar. Burr stands for buy, rehab, rent, refinance, repeat, and we'll get into all that in the webinar. It's a great way to build equity in a property very quickly, and to use that equity towards your down payment, so that you're not paying that standard, traditional 20 to 25% down. Some of our investors have done BRRRR's in markets like Tennessee, where they put zero down, or where they even made money on the if you want to call it the flip, so we're going to be talking about them. It's specifically geared towards we've done a burr event before on the Memphis, Tennessee market. This is a burr online event that covers the Cleveland, Ohio market, and that's a market that we have not touched on much here at get rich education, we've promoted some properties here and there. It's a really popular market, and it's a state that is growing and looking if someone were to ask me, Hey, Naresh what's the one state that you think can become the next Florida. And we've covered Florida here before. I live in Florida. Politics aside, Florida has boomed Since 2020. Or so. The number of how you can judge a state's growth is by its GDP numbers. And most importantly, are people moving there? That's the key. Are people moving there? And I would say Ohio is that next state where I think many people in the Midwest are going to say, hey, you know what, I want to go move there, because they're looking to make a lot of changes that are pro growth, that are pro real estate, including potentially eliminating the property tax, school choice programs there. That's huge for kids, universal school choice, and, most importantly, potentially eliminating the income tax now, these are all long term plans. It's not happening anytime soon, but those are the visions and the goals for Ohio, and I think they're going to happen by 2030 I would expect many of these plans and policies to happen. And what that means for real estate is it's going to boom because people are going to move to Ohio because of that, there aren't a lot of states that offer no income tax. So those are my thoughts on Ohio, and we're going to talk a little bit more about that on the webinar.

Keith Weinhold 37:50

Many expect Vivek Ramaswami to be the next governor of Ohio. If that comes true, Vivek has a lot of the same pro business policies that Ron DeSantis does in Florida, for example, Ohio has a high population, a stable population, America's seventh largest population, and a slow growing one with a great diversity of industry there in Ohio and Cleveland.

Naresh Vissa 38:15

So Keith, we have we're approaching record numbers of registrations for this event. We still have room for several more people. So I highly recommend people go to GRE webinars.com. That's GRE webinars.com. You can register for the event. It's going to be fun. All of our webinars recently have been a ton of fun. We've gotten great feedback, a lot of engagement. I think you'll learn a lot for sure. So I'm looking forward to seeing everybody there.

Keith Weinhold 38:42

Your co host, Phil, was on last week's show with us, both you and Phil, we'll be talking about this burr live event in Cleveland. I really suggest you, the listener, attend live. You might get a better Property selection that way, and you'll surely be able to ask questions, and sometimes with the other participants, they ask a really good question that you had not even thought of previously. It's our live burr event for Cleveland cash flow properties. You the listener probably remember when Phil was here last week, we gave an example of where you can get eight to one leverage and up to $500 cash flow on a single family home in Cleveland. I really recommend that you attend, and you'll be hearing more from the race, then you can sign up at GRE webinars.com We'll see if we break that record of, I think, 538 registrants last webinar that we had late last year. Do you have any last thoughts about the event? Naresh,

Naresh Vissa 39:41

like I said, before our events have it's free to attend. That's the first thing. You don't need to pay us anything. But we sell out these events. So I highly recommend that people go once again to GRE webinars.com. We can only hold a certain number of people. It's a few 100 people. So we want to sell out again. We hope you can. Join us and you will not regret I think you're gonna really like the Cleveland market. We're gonna talk more about that, the Ohio market in general. And I think folks are really, really gonna like this strategy. I know a lot of you have invested in Burt, in other markets, or have been researching Burr and you really like what you hear this is the market. I think that you should pay really, really close attention to our team is really strong there. Phil's team, really strong, very honest. They're quick, they're reliable. So if you've had a bad experience doing a burr elsewhere, I think you'll have a better experience with our team over here.

Keith Weinhold 40:35

We'd call it a sellout crowd, but you don't have to pay anything. We'd call it a standing room only crowd, but you don't have to stand up. You can sit down and enjoy it from the comfort of your own home this Thursday at 8pm eastern at GRE webinars.com. Thanks for coming on to the show. Naresh,

Naresh Vissa 40:51

thanks a lot, Keith.

Keith Weinhold 40:57

Yeah, strong insights from our own new race today, inflation expectations cut back and forth like a knife with big policy decisions on layoffs and tariffs and more tariffs on lumber and gypsum board. I mean, they are two of the major inputs that can increase the cost of homes. Gypsum board just means drywall tariffs, slow trade, less fuel is used to ship things like we touched on. And a lot of people ask, well, doesn't an economic slowdown mean lower prices, but yet don't tariffs raise prices? Well, you got to take on that from Naresh today. Now, sometimes I am asked, where is the real opportunity in today's real estate market? I've been a guest on other business shows lately, and I've been asked that question, where's the opportunity in today's real estate market? And I've got two answers. If you have more money and less time. Go with new build properties, because builders are still awarding you with massive rate buy downs, often to near a 5% mortgage rate. They are buying it down for you, but instead, if you have less money and more time, because you have to wait a few months for a rehab, then go with the burr strategy. That is the other opportunity. It's going to give you a higher return than new build in most cases, because what you get is in improbably high leverage along with strong cash flow. And those are two notions that typically don't go together. Well, on Thursday, we're bringing that to you with our live event. I mean, is there a more seasoned pro with the burr strategy in the entire nation than one co host for the event? Phil and then the mind spring of knowledge and ideas from Naresh as the other co host, and they're both active investors themselves, bringing you the opportunity in Cleveland in just a few days. And of the hundreds of registrants, not all of them attend live, but do attend live. If you can give yourself an advantage, you can be connected with available properties conducive to the burr strategy. If you're interested, or maybe you're just more interested in how it all works one last time it is GRE 's live event for Cleveland's amazing cash flow opportunities this coming Thursday, the 20th at 8pm Eastern, 5pm Pacific, healthy real world monthly rents that are more than 1% of the purchase price single family properties, many for under 100k in investor sweet spots. It's free to attend. It's from the comfort of your own home. Registration is still open at GRE webinars.com until next week. I'm your host. Keith Weinhold, don't quit your Daydream.

Speaker 2 44:04

Nothing on this show should be considered specific, personal or professional advice. Please consult an appropriate tax, legal, real estate, financial or business professional for individualized advice. Opinions of guests are their own. Information is not guaranteed. All investment strategies have the potential for profit or loss. The host, is operating on behalf of get rich Education LLC exclusively.

Keith Weinhold 44:28

You know, whenever you want the best written real estate and finance info, oh, geez, today's experience limits your free articles access, and it's got paywalls and pop ups and push notifications and cookies disclaimers, it's not so great. So then it's vital to place nice, clean, free content into your hands that adds no hype value to your life. That's why this is the golden age of quality newsletters, and I write every word of ours. Myself. It's got a dash of humor, and it's to the point because even the word abbreviation is too long, my letter usually takes less than three minutes to read, and when you start the letter, you also get my one hour fast real estate video. Course, it's all completely free. It's called the Don't quit your Daydream. Letter, it wires your mind for wealth, and it couldn't be easier for you to get it right now. Just text GRE to 66866, while it's on your mind, take a moment to do it right now. Text GRE to 668666.

The preceding program was brought to you by your home for wealth, building, getricheducation.com.

Direct download: GREepisode545_.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 4:00am EST

Mon, 10 March 2025

Keith discusses the current state of the real estate market, highlighting that single-family rents have risen 41% since pre-pandemic times, while multi-family rents have increased by 26%. Single-family rents have been rising faster than prices for nine months, benefiting investors.

Austin, Texas, is an example of how increased supply can lower rents, as seen in their drop in rents after the city relaxed building regulations.

Show Notes:

GetRichEducation.com/544

For access to properties or free help with a

GRE Investment Coach, start here:

GRE Free Investment Coaching:GREmarketplace.com/Coach

Get mortgage loans for investment property:

RidgeLendingGroup.com or call 855-74-RIDGE

or e-mail: info@RidgeLendingGroup.com

Invest with Freedom Family Investments.

You get paid first: Text FAMILY to 66866

Will you please leave a review for the show? I’d be grateful. Search “how to leave an Apple Podcasts review”

For advertising inquiries, visit:

Best Financial Education:

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Our YouTube Channel:

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543: The Danger of Losing Your Job, How to Use AI for Real Estate

Complete episode transcript:

Automatically Transcribed With Otter.ai

Keith Weinhold 0:01

Welcome to GRE I'm your host. Keith Weinhold, build it and rents will fall. I discuss the direction of rents and prices today on get rich education.

since 2014 the powerful get rich education podcast has created more passive income for people than nearly any other show in the world. This show teaches you how to earn strong returns from passive real estate investing in the best markets without losing your time being a flipper or landlord. Show Host Keith Weinhold writes for both Forbes and Rich Dad advisors and delivers a new show every week since 2014 there's been millions of listener downloads of 188 world nations. He has a list show, guess who? Top Selling personal finance author Robert Kiyosaki, get rich education can be heard on every podcast platform, plus it has its own dedicated Apple and Android listener phone apps build wealth on the go with the get rich education podcast. Sign up now for the get rich education podcast, or visit get rich education.com

Corey Coates 1:13

You're listening to the show that has created more financial freedom than nearly any show in the world. This is get rich education.

Keith Weinhold 1:29

Welcome to GRE from elizabeth new jersey to Elizabeth, Colorado and across 188 nations worldwide. I'm Keith Weinhold, get rich education, founder, Forbes real estate council member, Best Selling Author and long time real estate investor, you are inside, get rich education. What's that all really mean? Ah, I'm just another slack jod and snaggletooth podcaster.nationally, rents for single family homes are growing faster than for multi family apartments. Okay, that you might have already known, because for a few years, we've been in this era where available single family rentals are scarce and apartments are closer to being adequately supplied across the nation. We're now at the point where median single family home rents are up 41% since those blissful and Halcyon pre pandemic days, and yet, multifam rents are up just 26% since that time. So it's 41 versus 26 and that's all according to a new report from Zillow. Now you probably listen to this show every week, so although that might be a helpful update, you probably don't find those facts surprising at all. But here's a more nascent trend that could surprise you. Every single month for the past nine months now, single family rents have risen faster than single family prices. Yeah, the John Burns home value index is up 3.3% annually, and the rent index shows that those rents are up 3.6% so 3.6 versus 3.3 really not a big gap there, but single family rents rising faster than prices for nine months. You know that's exactly what swings things into your favor as a real estate investor, it increases your ratio of rent income to purchase price. This has been happening because for someone that needs housing out there, paying rent has looked more affordable than buying a home. So then those things have to soon come back into balance. Now you remember that five months ago, I visited Austin, Texas, walked the streets and with all of the new building of apartment towers there, I called it America's oversupply, ground zero for apartments. Well, I'm not sure if you've noticed, but here, a few months later, major media sources are now reporting on the same thing that I was telling you about on the ground five months ago, and this is really insightful for real estate investors in a real world case study that will be on every intro to economics syllabus this fall, rents in Austin, Texas plunged. They fell 22% from their peak a couple years ago after the city accelerated permitting processes and scaled back the rules on building height, and this is exactly what created Austin's apartment supply surplus and therefore lower prices for renters. Bloomberg was the one recently reporting on this. So Austin's, if you build it, rents will fall mantra that created about 50,000 new units over just the past two years, a 14% increase. I mean, that is the biggest spike in supply of any US city. Over that time, just tons of cranes in the air. And by the way, the median asking rent in Austin, Texas is now $1,400 remarkably, though, that is down a full 400 bucks from the height of the pandemic. I mean, that is such an aberration That is so weird and rare. Yeah, Austin rents dropped from $1,800 down to $1,400 in in fact, that is so weird, and they've fallen so much that notoriously pricey Austin is no longer the most expensive city in Texas. It's now DFW. And you know, this is astounding on a few levels, because typically rents are even more stable than home prices. Gosh, but now to take off our investor hat for just a minute. Don't worry, we'll put it right back on. This is what society needs. I mean, how in the world are we the nation that put a man on the moon in 1969 yet we can't house our own people today. It's what I've discussed before. We need to build more. If you build it, rents will fall. If you build it, home, prices will become affordable. Again, we're not doing enough of that. Not enough places are following Austin's model. Up zoning, as I've told you before, up zoning. That's the name for allowing taller building heights. And you know what? That's something that both developers and environmentalists often like. Both types developers get what they want, and environmentalists know that housing and the economics of that are more efficient. There's less energy use in everything when we build up and we build apartments rather than single family homes, Austin relaxed regulations and they got it done. So congrats to them. I mean, that is a model for what we can do to address not only housing affordability, but the swelling homelessness problem like I enjoy talking about as well. So yeah, congrats, Austin, though you might have gotten too far ahead of your growth for the short term. America really needs the housing so thank you.

Now here's some ominous news for society and the economy. I wouldn't make too much of it yet, but the Atlanta Fed tracker has plunged. They're now forecasting a shrinking economy this quarter, minus one and a half percent. GDP is a projection which that gets us going down into recession territory, and part of the reason for that is this recent drag in consumption. But news like that can come and go, and we all know how frightfully just laughably bad recession predictions have been for years. We haven't had one in five years. So I want you to get the longer term lesson here, because things pop up like this over time. What usually happens to real estate in a recession? Because we know that there's going to be one. No one knows when. What happens is that unemployment rises. That is bad, home prices go up. Yes, home prices typically rise modestly in a recession. Just remember, since World War Two, home prices only fell significantly in one period, and it was a bad one in those years around 2008 what happens to interest rates? Interest rates of all kinds. In a recession, they fall. Interest rates fall. The Fed make sure that happens, and the reason for that is rates fall because the economy needs the help to review what you've learned so far today, single family rents are rising faster than apartment rents. Single Family rents are rising faster than single family home prices, although not by much. And Austin is proof that if you build it, prices will fall. And during recessions, residential real estate is a good place to be. I'm Keith Weinhold. You're listening to get rich education.

You know what's crazy, your bank is getting rich off of you. The average savings account pays less than 1% it's like laughable. Meanwhile, if your money isn't making at least 4% you're losing to inflation. That's why I started putting my own money into the FFI liquidity fund. It's super simple. Your cash can pull in up to 8% returns, and it compounds. It's not some high risk gamble like digital or AI stock trading. It's pretty low risk because they've got a 10 plus year track record of paying investors on time in full every time. I mean, I wouldn't be talking about it if I wasn't invested myself. You can invest as little as 25k and you keep earning until you decide you want your money back, no weird lock ups or anything like that. So if you're like me and tired of your liquid funds just sitting there doing nothing, check it out. Text, family to 66866, to learn about freedom. Family investments, liquidity fund, again. Text family to 66866,

hey, you can get your mortgage loans at the same place where I get mine, at Ridge lending group NMLS, 42056, they provided our listeners with more loans than any provider in the entire nation, because they specialize in income properties, they help you build a long term plan for growing your real estate empire with leverage. You can start your pre qualification and chat with President Caeli Ridge personally. Start Now while it's on your mind at Ridge lendinggroup.com, that's Ridge lendinggroup.com.

Richard Duncan 12:46

This is Richard Duncan, publisher and macro watch, listen to get rich education with Keith Weinhold, and don't quit your Daydream.

until next week. I'm your host. Keith Weinhold, don't quit your Daydream.

Speaker 1 40:20

Keith Weinhold 40:48

The preceding program was brought to you by your home for wealth, building, getricheducation.com

Direct download: GREepisode544_.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 5:00am EST

Mon, 3 March 2025

Register here for GRE's live online event to learn about ‘Cleveland’s Amazing Cash Flow Opportunities’ on Thursday, March 20th.

Keith discusses the impact of recent federal job layoffs, emphasizing the importance of diversifying income sources. 40% of Americans experience job loss at least once in their careers, with men more affected. He advocates for real investing in real estate as a safety net.

Seth Williams joins the conversation to discuss the use of AI in everyday life and real estate investing.

Hear a practical example of how AI can help with real estate due diligence, such as reviewing municipal regulations and zoning rules.

Resources:

Check out Seth's resources, including the Pulse Inner Circle community, to learn more about practical applications of AI.

Show Notes:

GetRichEducation.com/543

For access to properties or free help with a

GRE Investment Coach, start here:

GRE Free Investment Coaching:GREmarketplace.com/Coach

Get mortgage loans for investment property:

RidgeLendingGroup.com or call 855-74-RIDGE

or e-mail: info@RidgeLendingGroup.com

Invest with Freedom Family Investments.

You get paid first: Text FAMILY to 66866

Will you please leave a review for the show? I’d be grateful. Search “how to leave an Apple Podcasts review”

For advertising inquiries, visit:

Best Financial Education:

Get our wealth-building newsletter free—

text ‘GRE’ to 66866

Our YouTube Channel:

Follow us on Instagram:

542: A Home Loan Where No Monthly Payments are Required

Complete episode transcript:

Automatically Transcribed With Otter.ai

Keith Weinhold 0:01

Welcome to GRE. I'm your host. Keith Weinhold, amidst 10s of 1000s of federal workers recently getting fired. It's not rare, because throughout their working career, layoffs hit 40% of Americans. How do you hedge yourself against the danger of losing your job? Then get a fascinating understanding of how you can use AI to improve your everyday life, and some applications for AI in real estate investing today on Get Rich Education.

Since 2014 the powerful get rich education podcast has created more passive income for people than nearly any other show in the world. This show teaches you how to earn strong returns from passive real estate investing in the best markets without losing your time being a flipper or landlord. Show Host Keith Weinhold writes for both Forbes and Rich Dad advisors, and delivers a new show every week since 2014 there's been millions of listener downloads in 188 world nations. He has a list show guests and key top selling personal finance author Robert Kiyosaki, get rich education can be heard on every podcast platform, plus it has its own dedicated Apple and Android listener phone apps build wealth on the go with get rich education podcast. Sign up now for the get rich education podcast or visit get rich education.com

Corey Coates 1:19

You're listening to the show that has created more financial freedom than nearly any show in the world. This is get rich education.

Keith Weinhold 1:35

Welcome to GRE from Sunbury, Pennsylvania to Sun Valley, Idaho and across 488 nations worldwide. I'm Keith Weinhold, and I'm grateful to have you with me here for another week. This is get rich education. I'm known as the guy that back in 2015 was the first person to explain how real estate pays you five distinct ways at the same time when mass federal layoffs hit recently, you know you can learn something really important at a time like this. And no, it's not about the Washington, DC real estate market. That's not where I'm going here. That's not the bigger lesson, unless you're perhaps in the DC real estate market, it's shaping up to be 10s of 1000s of federal workers that are getting the boot as the result of the new administration in charge. We'll see where the number lands. But the thing is, is that federal jobs have long been deemed as the most secure, and yet more firings are coming. So if they're the most secure jobs, then what does that say about you and the safety of your job in both your near term future and your long term future, whether you're in the public sector or the private sector. I've worked in both sectors, and yeah, sadly, this is not such a rare occurrence. Many sources cite that roughly 40% of Americans get fired at least once during their working life. Job loss is more likely for a man than a woman, and it's happened to me. Yep, even I've taken that awkward and awful feeling box full of desk stuff, walk. The big lesson here is that you need to grow a second source of income, Experian and fed data. They cite that the average debt per consumer is about $39,000 worth of student loan debt, and another $24,000 worth of auto loan debt and another $6,500 worth of credit card debt. Well, those are not good debt types, like real estate debt is where you can outsource the debt to a tenants. Instead, you are the one that has to pay these type of debts, and that's why a lot of job losers are going to decline into a financial tailspin. They will default on their payments. They will become delinquent, they will descend into bankruptcy, and they will have a destroyed credit score, and the incidence of depression and suicide that even goes up for these people. Now, as we know, most of the so called financial advice out there that targets budgeting, how to cut your expenses. That's okay. You can do a little of that, but if you lose your job, a bundled cell phone plan in ditching your $7 latte is hardly going to help you. See, here's the thing that a lot of people fail around. Lies, even if you get a promotion and a raise at work, it still only pads a dangerous single source. It's still just a sole income source. Instead, what's powerful is, rather than budgeting, it is increasing your income, but it needs to be a source outside of your day job. That's how you get income diversification at the same time. I mean, you could take on a part time job or freelance work and accomplish that, but see the problem there is that you've lost your irreplenishable time. That's a one way street that time is never coming back. Don't live below your means. Grow your means. Owning an income property that can completely solve all of these problems, even a low cost income property of, say, $200,000 and Okay, a property like this, that might start with just 100 to $300 per month of residual cash flow, but that amount tends to rise even faster than inflation, because, as we know, your mortgage payment stays fixed. That's how that happens, and additionally, your 200k property at just 5% annual appreciation that grows to 255k in just five years. And if you only made a 20% down payment of 40k on this well, that property that grows to over 100k of equity in five years because you've got both the appreciation and the tenant made loan pay down. There is more to this. Besides increasing your monthly income, you can often take a chunk of this 100k plus equity with a cash out refinance that is a tax free windfall event, you heard that, right? Tax free, and you still get to hold on to the property. So a simple, low cost 200k property, just one of those, it increases your income now it gives you a second source of income, and it simultaneously gives you a leveraged windfall chunk that you can access in one nice, tax free cash lump. And one thing's for sure, you want to get a loan for income property and get that property now why you have your job? Because when you lose your job again, 40% of the time, no mortgage underwriter will qualify you when you're unemployed, relying on one income source that is kind of like playing Jenga on a wobbly legged table. So really, the bottom line here is that widespread federal job firings, they have really brought to light how many people are vulnerable with just one source of income. Why would anyone do that? Owning investment property solves the problem. Plant that second income seed now you can't have just one income stream that is too close to zero, that is precariously close to zero, and much of your life's thought pathways. They're about expectations, your expectations for the future, the way you think about your future, and if there's even a looming threat of losing your job in the future, you know that might not happen, but just the mere threat of losing your job that can induce stress. So that's why you want to do something about that, and I have a great resource to share with you shortly that me and the team here at GRE are going to help you with in you getting that vital income diversification a second source, but first Tax Day is next month. If you aren't getting an extension, you be pulling your tax documents together Trump tax changes are anticipated any time here, the highest federal income tax rate is expected to stay at 37% the standard deductions are moving up soon, indexed to inflation, $15,000 if you're single, $30,000 if you're married. Basically this means that things like your donation receipts. You know what? They are not worth saving and tracking unless they exceed those standard deduction amounts. And I like easy ways to remember things as you're pulling together documents for your tax preparer, if you are the tax preparer yourself, a w2 form shows. Income from your employer. A 1099 form shows income that's not from an employer, really. That's the distinction and an easy way to remember it. And to my point earlier about having more than just one vulnerable source of income, I hope that your 1099 income not from an employer, like the rents that your property manager collected for you that those 1090 nines are increasing faster than your w2 income, which is from an employer.

America's first car free neighborhood. I sent you more about that in our newsletter recently, and you said that you really liked learning about it. Yes, America's first car free neighborhood. It's had its share of detractors and skeptics and supporters since it broke ground in 2021 these are largely rental apartments in Tempe, Arizona, that is just the east of downtown Phoenix. Residents get around with light rail and E bikes. Studio apartments start around $1,300 a month, and three bedroom units around $2,700you can meet your neighbors more and get to know your community when everyone's not in their car and garage bubbles. So I found this really interesting. One resident of America's first car free neighborhood said We've probably made more connections here in six months than when we lived in the suburbs for 15 years. That was interesting to learn about in our newsletter.

Coming up on the second half of the show today, an expert guest and I are talking AI, think about all the time that this is going to save you. Think about all the brain damage that this is going to save you. Think about how much better informed you're going to be and how much smarter you'll feel. That's coming up shortly. Hey with what I mentioned earlier, I am announcing that coming up in just a couple weeks, here on March 20, it is our live online event for an amazing Cleveland cash flow opportunity. And why Cleveland now? Well, healthy, real world monthly rents are more than 1% of home prices. That is a lucrative ratio. And on top of this, we are layering the BRRRR strategy by rehab, rent, refinance and repeat, where cash flow averages more than $500 per door. This strategy, it allows you to put fewer dollars in the deal, and that's why it's really popular. Be sure to show up and learn more. Our last live online event was last year. It was for BRRRRs, and we had a record 538 registrants. We're going to examine single family properties in C and C plus neighborhoods. Those are the investor sweet spots here. And besides learning about real estate due diligence and the Cleveland market, there will also be a buying opportunity. Yes, the bur strategy allows you to invest with that low equity position, yes, both investor advantage areas, with the BRRRR strategy layered on top of it, it's the right opportunity for you if you need to build that second or third source of income. And besides all that, there's just the simple fact that amidst the well known national undersupply of housing. Entry Level homes, like these ones in Cleveland, they are even fewer. That entry level segment really has the scarce supply. I mean, you're going to own a scarce asset that everyone wants and needs. And this live event is one of course you can join from the comfort of your own home. It has two co hosts. You are going to be joined by one of our terrifically qualified GRE investment coaches and one of our top partners who has helped investors create wealth and grow their portfolios for over 20 years. I know him. I've had dinner with him. You can register now at GREwebinars.com Again, it is March 20. Our last one had 538 registrants. That was a record. Register while you can it is open now at GREwebinars.com more next. I'm Keith Weinhold. You're listening to GRE

you know what's crazy. Your bank is getting rich off of you. The average savings account pays less than 1% it's like laughable. Meanwhile, if your money isn't making at least 4% you're losing to inflation. That's why I saw. Putting my own money into the FFI liquidity fund. It's super simple. Your cash can pull in up to 8% returns, and it compounds. It's not some high risk gamble like digital or AI stock trading. It's pretty low risk because they've got a 10 plus year track record of paying investors on time in full every time. I mean, I wouldn't be talking about it if I wasn't invested myself. You can invest as little as 25k and you keep earning until you decide you want your money back. No weird lockups or anything like that. So if you're like me and tired of your liquid funds just sitting there doing nothing. Check it out. Text family to 66866, to learn about freedom family investments, liquidity fund again. Text family to 66866

Blair Singer 16:35

this is Rich Dad, sales advisor, Blair Singer. Listen to get rich education with Keith Weinhold. And above all, don't quit your Daydream.

Keith Weinhold 16:51

How do you really use AI? Can you believe if you have a question about anything in life, 90% of the time, it already makes more sense to ask chatgpt than a human being. That's what my longtime friend says. He's with us today, and he hosts the terrific R E tipster YouTube channel. Welcome into GRE Seth Williams,

Seth Williams 17:15

hey, Keith, great to be here. Thanks for having me. Seth, you've been interested in AI for years. Tell us how your perspective has evolved over time. A lot of people have pretty big variations in how much they use AI and how much they're even aware of it. Personally, I use it every day, like many, many times a day. Chatgpt is open almost all the time, and I use it for almost anything you can imagine, like when I have a question about almost anything, it makes more sense to ask chatgpt than it does to do a talk to a human, because I can get direct answers. It's armed with pretty much all the information that's publicly available on the world is an incredible resource. And when I talk to people and I ask them, like, Hey, do you use chatgpt? And they either say, What are you talking about, or they say, Yeah, I've used it once. It like, it just hurts me. You know, it's like, seriously, you have a superpower at your disposal here. You're not using it. It's kind of like what the internet was back in 1995 or something, where, like, some people kind of got it, but a lot of people didn't get it yet. It's pretty crazy when you can harness the power of not just chat GPT, but all of this AI stuff that's available now. Like, there's incredible, very powerful leveraging opportunity here.

Keith Weinhold 18:27

I use it about every other day. I bet after talking to you, it's gonna make me want to use it more. But, yeah, the guy that cuts my hair, he's only 25 years old. He doesn't seem very familiar with this. But like you said, it's a lot like Google in 1995 to maybe 1998 like, people just didn't automatically think of Googling something. And it's beginning to get that way, I think with using an AI like chatgpt to answer your questions, why don't you tell us about some of the biggest misconceptions that people have about AI?

Seth Williams 18:54

Well, that's good question. I guess it kind of depends on where they're coming from and what they are even aware of in terms of what is capable of. But I know one thing I hear from time to time is people will say, Well, I'm not a content creator, so I don't really have a use for that, like it makes sense if you're like a blogger or a podcaster. And I guess the good thing is that they at least have some awareness of what it can be used for. But things like chatgpt can be used by pretty much anybody who knows how to type on a computer or even speak to their phone, the chatgpt mobile app, for example, I just love this thing you do have to be a paying Plus member, which is 20 bucks a month. That is a laughably inexpensive price for everything that chatgpt could do for you, especially a mobile app. I can turn this thing on. I can use it as a camera to point to anything and have it give me insights and instructions on how to deal with this thing, whether it's a plumbing problem. I was just using it this morning. I had my phone set up on a tripod on my desk, pointed at Zapier trying to figure out how to make two complex softwares work together, and I just had to speak to it in real time. Time and ask it, this is what I'm trying to do. How do I do this? I don't get it, and it explained exactly what to do. And this was help that I could have paid a consultant money for, but it just came from this app, and all has to do is just look at my screen and it understands all of it. It sees things that I don't see. I know people that use chatgpt as the therapist. I've never done that, but I've know a whole lot of people that do that kind of thing. Yeah, and it gives them legitimate, useful feedback, and it's available 24/7, and it doesn't cost 100 plus dollars per session to talk to them.

Keith Weinhold 20:32

You the listener right now are thinking about all the jobs that this is displacing, surely, but why don't we pull back and think about no Seth. If someone is completely new to AI, what's the first thing that they should try to use it for?

Seth Williams 20:46

If you are a real estate person? Specifically, I don't know if everybody listening to this is necessarily, but as a real estate investor, the first thing I ever used it for was writing property descriptions for me, like when I had a property I was trying to sell. I know there's a great way to explain this thing, but I don't really know how to do it in my own head. Yeah. And you can just feed it basic information about the property and say, Hey, write me a beautiful, compelling property description that will make these things sellable and make people you know, respond with interest and that kind of thing. And just do that, and you'll see what I'm talking about it. It's an incredible writer. It does a great job. What's your question about where do they start with chat GPT? Is that what you're asking? Yeah, if one isn't familiar with it, where should they start? Well, another thing you could do daily use type thing. So something that I've used chat GPT for, I've taken a picture of my closet in the different clothes I have to wear, and I send it to chat gpati and say, Hey, what should I wear today? Like, what different articles of clothing would you recommend that I pair together? You could do this with your cupboard. Say, Hey, here's what I have in my cupboard. Tell me what I can make with this and then give me the recipe to make it. You could do this at the drug store. You'd go take a picture of the shelf and say, Hey, I have a splitting headache. Show me what on this shelf will solve my problem right now and get rid of my headache. I've actually got this problem worse than most people, where I can be looking right at the solution, and I don't see it like it's right there in front of me, but I miss it. But chatgpt doesn't miss anything like, if it's in the picture, or even in the the live vision camera, it's like a live video feed that you can point at anything. Like it will see it, and it will point out stuff that you very likely are missing.

Keith Weinhold 22:24

That's amazing. I haven't used its image capability that way yet, and really that brings up Seth. There are so many AI tools available, like an explosion these past couple years. How is a person supposed to decide which ones are worth using and which ones are not.

Speaker 1 22:41

It's very true, there's a lot of stuff out there. It can be a little overwhelming. I can tell you, I've used chatgpt, I've used Claude, I've used Gemini, I've used grok, bunch of different AI chat bots out there. They can all do some pretty amazing things, but if you just don't know where to start, like I'll see if I can only have one of them, chatgpt is what I would go to. I think part of that is just a level of familiarity, like I've just used it for so long now. It's like a comfortable old shoe, but it really is innovating at an incredible speed, and it's this AI boom has been happening for over two years now, and chatgpt is still arguably at the top. I mean, they've done a really good job of staying on the bleeding edge of what can be done now, and chatgpt is free, but if you pay for the $20 a month version of it, you just unlocks a lot more capability and usability. That's probably what I would do. But there's different Claude. I've seen this myself, and I've heard this from a lot of other people. If you're trying to, like, write a story, for example, Claude is actually a better writer than most things out there. So that's what you're trying to do. Like, go with quad you want, like, a one, all purpose tool that can do pretty much everything reasonably well. That's what chat GPT is, in my opinion,

Keith Weinhold 23:52

those are some great tips. And yeah, I thought it was pretty impactful last year, when even when you do a Google search, at the top of that, there is now an AI summary before you see your conventional Google Search sort of hits, which actually concerned Google advertisers for a little while. How about some of the most driest and esoteric reading that we can think of, and how AI can speed that up and make it more interesting, just say, doing due diligence in real estate, like reviewing municipal regulations or zoning rules and property restrictions. How does AI help you there?

Speaker 1 24:27

I've used it numerous times for that, perfect for that. For example, in the land business, one way that you can make money from land is by subdividing land. And one strategy within the subdividing business is to find properties that are they're called exempt subdivides, which means that you can essentially do the subdivide and not get anybody's permission to do it, like you can just split it up and not ask anyone. And you can do it, but you can only do that if the size of the property is over a certain threshold. In Texas, I think it's 10.01 acres or. Higher. There's certain places Michigan that are similar, but you can figure this out by looking at the county and the municipal guidelines to understand what is that threshold, or does that threshold exist at all? You can find these PDFs from the county or the municipal website. Upload it to something like chatgpt or Claude, and just ask the question like, how big does a property have to be before it's exempt from the subdivision rules? And it'll tell you, if it's in there, it can redo the thing in a matter of seconds and tell you what the answer is and where it found the answer, a very similar thing with like legalese and legal writing that's really hard for the average person to understand, probably by design, it can decode that for you. I've gotten this before. I've gotten really poorly written emails from people like electricians, or even just, I can't believe there's already happened exactly. They explain things using a lot of industry jargon and lingo, and I don't know what they're talking about, right? And I can copy and paste that email into chatgpt and just say, Hey, I got this email from an electrician. I have no idea what this means. Can you explain this to me? Like I'm a five year old, and it does it, and it works every time where it's like, oh, okay, that's what you meant. I can just know that instead of having to respond to them and say, Hey, can you rewrite that for me? I don't understand it, and they reply, and it's bad again. And it goes back to this a lot of questions that a lot of us have every single day. Historically, we've gone to people to ask those questions, and that's fine, but it wastes their time, and it wastes our time, and we still might not get the answers we're looking for, but with things like chatgpt, like you almost certainly will get the answer you're looking for very quickly, and it doesn't waste anybody's time other than the time you have to spend asking the question. So it's a big 8020, lever, you can get a lot more done without relying on the limits of humans to get the job done.

Keith Weinhold 26:50

We're talking about how you can use AI in your overall life and in real estate a little bit too. With Seth Williams, well, you're such a good resource. You're really pretty pioneering in learning AI and helping you with problems and solutions in both your overall life and in real estate investing. So tell us by now, what are some of the most unexpected or just like, totally impressive things that AI has helped you with, and how do you do that stuff?

Seth Williams 27:17

That's a really long list, but the thing that I have been most impressed with as of late is something that both chatgpt and Google Gemini can both do this now, kind of in different ways, but they can look at your computer screen and help you figure out all kinds of complex problems. Talked about this a little bit in part one, but earlier this morning, I had my chat GPT mobile app right here on my phone. I had it on a tripod pointed at my screen, and it was walking me through how to set up a couple new zaps on Zapier using a web hooks, which just right there I probably lost most people. It's just a confusing thing to figure out. I still don't fully understand it, but I was explaining my problem and what I was trying to do, and I could just talk for as long as I want, until I'm done talking. And then chatgpt chimed in, and in about 30 seconds, it solved my problem and told me exactly what to do. And Google has another way of doing this, where it's actually like on your computer, like seeing your entire screen, and it kind of does the same thing where a voice talks back to you. It's amazing, because I know how hard some of these things can be, the type of thing that would either make me give up and just not do what I'm trying to do, or pay somebody a bunch of money to come in fix the problem for me, or stand over my shoulder, either which way is not a great outcome. But with the help of these AI chat bots that can see everything going on, and they have basically all the knowledge in the world about how to solve the problem. They can do it really quickly and easily. And it's amazing. That's one of millions of different things you can do with chatgpt.

Keith Weinhold 28:51

Oh dear. If AI looked at my computer screen, the first thing they would probably tell me is to close half of the tabs that I have open. Oh, yeah, me too, yeah. How are you personally using AI in your real estate investing business today?

Seth Williams 29:07

lots of ways, but one thing that has been particularly useful to me is the use of what's called Custom gpts, which basically just means, right, you are training chat GP T to respond to you in a very specific way based on certain instructions you give it. So every time you start a conversation like it already knows why you're there, what you're looking for, what assumptions you want it to make. One example of a custom GPT I've made is one that can very quickly analyze big commercial projects like whether it's a self storage facility or industrial outdoor storage, I've explained to it how I want it to run the numbers based on certain information. I give it like square footage and pricing and occupancy rates and that kind of thing. So I can basically feed it like six or seven key pieces of information and 20 seconds it can tell. A give me, like a one to 10 rating based on this is a great deal, you should move forward, or this is a terrible deal. Look the other way. And the reason this is a big deal is because the way I used to handle this was I had a giant spreadsheet, and I would go line by line, filling in all these different inputs, and it would take me, at a minimum, like 30 to 45 minutes to get to the same place of understanding, like, Yes, this is good. I should keep going on this. Or no, this is a terrible deal. And it can just, like, look at a lot of stuff, a lot of data, very quickly. And it's not like the final answer necessarily, like, you don't just blindly follow whatever it tells you to do, but it can just get to the bottom of stuff, or, I guess, get further to the bottom of stuff, wasting a whole lot less time. So, you know, the real estate that's super helpful, and people in, like, banking and accounting and all this stuff fields where, like, there are full time analysts that look at this stuff all day long. And it naturally takes humans a lot of time to figure this stuff out, but AI can get there much faster.

Keith Weinhold 31:03

Yeah, that is pretty remarkable, and it sounds like you're finding a pretty high degree of reliability and not getting what we call hallucinations in the AI world.

Seth Williams 31:15

Yeah, that is sort of a developing thing. So hallucinations, it's definitely a real issue where basically we'll just make up stuff that sounds viable, but it's not right, and the only way you would really know that is if you knew better in the first place, which means, why am I even asking the question if I already know the answer? So it was kind of an issue where chatgpt and Claude and Gemini would just make stuff up. One of the ideas with some of the newer models that are coming out with, like, oh one or oh three mini now is what they've got. They use a lot more logic in these models. And the difference is, when you ask it one of these questions, and if it doesn't know the answer, it'll just say, I don't know. That's a great answer. They're hallucinating. Yeah, absolutely. And you know, chatgpt Four, oh, it's kind of like the difference between if you hire a very polite VA in on the other side of the world who's trained to be a yes man or a yes woman, like they want to make you happy, and they're going to tell you what you want to hear, whether it's right or not, whereas, you know, these more advanced logical models are more like your account or it's like, I'm not here to impress you. I'm just going to tell you the facts and how things really are, I think, depending on what you're trying to do, like, there are certain situations where you'd want the more creative four, oh, version of the situations where you'd want the logical ones. So I'm trying to, like, do code or analyze numbers or do something where accuracy is very important. That's where I want to use those logical models. But if I'm like, writing a story or song lyrics or whatever, and creativity is more important, that's what I'd want to do four Oh, so it's not that either one is like better or worse. It just depends on what you're trying to accomplish and what output you want from it.

Keith Weinhold 32:54

Sure, part of this is knowing which tool to apply. There might be a grain of gratefulness, that there are such thing as hallucinations, right? I mean, it still takes you a human being thinking to confirm, does that answer make sense and it's just simply a good idea? Or could that be inaccurate? So the human component sounds like isn't completely displaced yet at this point, starting probably more than 10 years ago, Seth, when people began to look for answers to everyday questions, oftentimes, they would go to YouTube and they would just like to get their answer that way. Why is this faucet leaking or anything else? And watch a YouTube video about that. What's your process though for using AI to take a YouTube video and summarizing it and extracting key insights that way?

Seth Williams 33:39

Well, there is a free chrome extension called glasp, G, L, A, S, P, that I just used it this morning. All the time. I've heard of it. It kind of sits on top of YouTube. So when you're on YouTube and you have this chrome extension there, this little button appears, and you can copy a transcript of the entire video and then take that and paste it into chat, G, P, T, and you can ask it whatever you want about what that video is about. You could say, summarize it in one sentence. Or you could say, Does this video talk about this issue? And if so, where or what does it say about it? You could say, take this video and turn it into a blog post for me, literally, like, whatever you can imagine that could violate come from that video. You could get that information from it. And that alone is is amazing. And it kind of goes back to, like, what is the purpose of this video, or what is my question that I'm trying to get answered? Am I looking for entertainment? You know, for example, I've been watching a lot of videos about guitars and guitar pedals and amps lately. I want to hear what this guitar sounds like. I kind of have to watch a video for that. Like, a transcripts, not really going to help me chat. GPT is not going to help me. Like, I just actually have to watch the video. So this doesn't totally render videos useless. It just depends on why you're watching it and what information you want to get, and how can you get there faster.

Keith Weinhold 34:50

This has been great. Seth, are there any last things that we should know about? Ai, whether that's misconceptions or making sure that we're using the right. AI tools and avoiding the wrong ones. Any last thoughts? Seth, if

Seth Williams 35:04

people are really interested in this stuff, I mean, there's plenty of places you can go online. This is a huge trending topic on YouTube, lots of good information out there. We actually put together a school community intended primarily for real estate investors and business people. It's you can find that at Pulse inner circle.com, P, U, L, S, E, inner circle.com. We're talking about this stuff all the time. My friend Mike balcom and I did a couple different courses on this stuff, like a guided course that was awesome. I mean, we even learned a lot of stuff going through the process. But it is a rapidly advancing area right now, and it has been ever since chatgpt came out, like, every week, there's some huge new thing out there. It's something that's worth paying attention to, because even, like, right now, it's incredible the stuff you can do. And interestingly, like, most people aren't doing it. So if you are up to speed and educated on it, you've got a superpower that most of the people don't know exists or aren't willing to learn.

Keith Weinhold 36:01

That's a great point. If you just learn 1% of this, you're going to be ahead of the general population, and it's really easy to do. Seth, I've done some learning about AI myself. This has been a great chat. Thanks.

Seth Williams 36:14

You bet.

Keith Weinhold 36:21

Check out Seth's resources and his own R E tipster podcast. Always love to chat with my man, Seth Williams, Super Down to Earth guy, and also he does not look like a dork like you might think an AI expert would. Yeah, like I told Seth, the guy that cuts my hair is 25 years old. He's a SoundCloud music artist. He mentioned to me about how he writes his own lyrics for his music. I asked him how the results were when he asked chatgpt to write his lyrics or write him some rhymes, he told me he never even thought of that. I couldn't believe it. So yeah, AI, it's just still not top of mind for people.

The two platforms that I use the most are chatgpt and venice.ai last year I told you about how you can turn any document into an AI podcast with notebook LM, and you'll remember that I also played a minute or two of that AI generated podcast right here on the show for you, you can book your travel with AI as well. Have it put together in itinerary for you. Have you asked AI who you are? I hope that you've tried that by now. When I go to chat GPT and ask it, who is Keith Weinhold, let's see, is it accurate? Well, the answer starts with Keith Weinhold, is a real estate investor, author and the host of the get rich education podcast. Well, then it goes on for a few paragraphs. It goes on to say he founded get rich education, a platform that offers educational content through podcasts, blogs and resources about real estate investing, personal finance and wealth building. His teachings emphasize the benefits of leveraging real estate as a long term wealth building tool while highlighting strategies to maximize cash flow and minimize risks. Okay, yeah, I would say that's accurate. No hallucination there. You can also ask chat, GPT or an AI, of course, about your properties. In fact, I'm going to enter the address of one of my rental properties and ask it how much cash flow it generates. So to skim the answer for you, it's okay. It looks pretty accurate. Here. It says that it is a three bedroom, two bathroom, single family home with 1300 44 square feet of living space. It shows the property was last listed for rent at $1,625 per month in March of 2024 Yep, that sounds right. Zillows rent, Zestimate estimate estimates the current rental value at $1,898 per month, is what it says. Okay, and then here's what it says about the property's cash flow. Because I asked that about the cash flow, it writes to determine the potential rental cash flow, consider the estimated monthly rental income of 1898 subtract operating expenses such as property management fees, maintenance insurance, property taxes and any mortgage payments, the resulting figure will represent the net monthly cash flow. All right, well, then it goes on with more info that's less interesting, okay, so therefore, at least this basic question that I've asked it chat GPT, I mean, it cannot know my cash flow unless they know what my loan amount was and what the mortgage interest rate is and those sorts of things. But maybe another AI knows that, though I am not sure.

Hey, coming up here on future episodes of the get rich education podcast, some well known names that haven't been here on the show. Before and another interesting upcoming episode down the road. Here is when a pastor is going to join me on the show. Here, this pastor is an expert in what the Bible says about money. You might be familiar with the Bible verse that says it is easier for a camel to go through the eye of a needle than for a rich man to enter the kingdom of God, gosh. Well, how does that make me feel about how the pastor and I's conversation is gonna go here on a show that's called get rich education that ought to be super interesting, and I really look forward to that show. Now, even if you're not a Christian or you don't believe in the Bible, this is going to be a significant conversation, because you cannot deny the Bible's influence. It is, in fact, the greatest selling book of all time, and even if it doesn't personally affect you, it does impact other investors around you and just billions of people across the world. What the Bible says about money coming up, which could have, I guess, some uncomfortable moments here in future weeks on the show, along with a lot of other great content. If you want to be sure that you don't miss that on your pod catching app, be sure to hit the Follow button. Also, if you would please, simply tell a friend about the show until next week. I'm your host. Keith Weinhold, don't quit your Daydream.

Speaker 2 41:41

Keith Weinhold 42:09

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Keith Weinhold and Caeli Ridge discuss the benefits of a type of loan that combines mortgage and banking features. This loan allows deposits to reduce principal first, every deposit acts like a payment, minimizing interest accrual. And can be used for cash-out refinancing, providing flexibility and potential tax benefits.

Hear about the importance and the difference between open-ended and closed-ended loans.

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541: Will a Boomer Selloff Make Housing Prices Crash?, This Vice is Destroying Young Men

Complete episode transcript:

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Keith Weinhold 0:01

Welcome to GRE. I'm your host. Keith Weinhold a discussion about the future mortgage rate direction. Then there's a property loan type where you don't have to make any monthly payments, and if you do make a payment, it all goes toward principal, and nothing is lost to interest. It can save you lots in interest expense over the life of the loan today on get rich education.

since 2014 the powerful get rich education podcast has created more passive income for people than nearly any other show in the world. This show teaches you how to earn strong returns from passive real estate investing in the best markets without losing your time being a flipper or landlord. Show Host Keith Weinhold writes for both Forbes and Rich Dad advisors and delivers a new show every week since 2014 there's been millions of listener downloads in 188 world nations. He has a list show guests include top selling personal finance author Robert Kiyosaki. Get rich education can be heard on every podcast platform, plus it has its own dedicated Apple and Android listener phone apps build wealth on the go with the get rich education podcast. Sign up now for the get rich education podcast, or visit get rich education.com

Corey Coates 1:13

You're listening to the show that has created more financial freedom than nearly any show in the world. This is get rich education.

Keith Weinhold 1:29

Welcome to GRE from flaccid County, Oregon to Lackawanna County, Pennsylvania and across 188 nations worldwide. I'm Keith Weinhold, and you are back in for another wealth building week here at get rich education, just another shaved mammal with the microphone here, I have a real estate analogy for you. Growing up, my dad told me, whatever you do, do it well. And that was broad guidance for life. I like things that are easy to remember. Our simple home in Appalachian Pennsylvania was headed with a wood fired stove, so we couldn't just turn a dial and feeding the stove with those logs took time and work. It was a family effort. Dad split the firewood. My chore was to regularly move firewood from the wood pile into the home, and then Mom or Dad would start the fire and constantly tend to it and get it up to the right temperature. But you know, when that fire finally roared, it felt like it could have heated five homes. And this is like buying an income producing rental property. You can't just point and click to make income reliably appear. It takes time, and even some of this admin type of work before you feel hot returned the spark that can ignite the fire means first putting your financial house in order. Those are things like getting pre approved for a mortgage loan, and then they're stacking the firewood, which means finding a deal, making an offer, booking a property inspection, scheduling an appraisal, perhaps signing a property management agreement if you're not self managing, and then, of course, placing a tenant. But see when that investment property fire roars after a year or two that can create enough returns for five retail investors, just like our roaring wood fire could have heated five homes, even though you're only one investor getting like 5x returns, and by now, you probably felt, after a year or two of owning it, the profitable warmth of the five ways you're paid that you know so well. Those five ways are leverage, appreciation, cash flow. Tenant made principal pay down a tax benefit basket and the quiet, whispering fire of inflation, profiting on your loan, but you can't get over leveraged, meaning that you can't make the payments, or else you burn the whole house down. This means embracing the right level of debt rather than avoiding debt altogether. So yeah, you know, if you want to be in the top 1% or maybe even top 5% Do you know what that means? It means being misunderstood by the masses. And when you do this right, it's not about getting rich quick, but it's about building wealth. For sure, feel the fire and whatever you do, do it well, just like my dad told me, and oh, by the way, today, my parents still live in that same. House, but they now just turn a dial for heat.

Well, you know, there's been a lot of real estate and financial news lately, just this constant feed of news. And I really need to tell you something about that. I am not a news reporter. If some news just broke an hour ago. A lot of times people are only overreacting to something like that. So here at GRE I infuse the news longer term into our content of the show, because some of it is just too big to ignore. But often let it settle down for a little while and filter out what it really means to you as an investor. I mean, being an educational platform rather than a news platform is what it's about. So I want to make sure you understand the relationships rather than just reporting the news. I mean, for example, what tariffs can do to home prices and rents and inflation. I mean, that really impacts you and your real estate long term. Rather than just doing something like reporting that the tariff on this nation that looked like it was going to be 25% is now only going to be 10% or something like that, that really doesn't affect you so much. So now that you know more about what to expect here, which are the stories that really affect you as an investor? The last inflation report did come in at a hot 3% that startled economists that it was that high. And what that does is that makes bond yields rise, because bond investors need a real return net of inflation, and in turn, that soon makes mortgage rates rise, and also it makes Jerome Powell be in no rush to cut his Fed funds rate after this hot inflation report, either. And here's another long term relationship that can help you learn the Fed's dual mandate is, what do you know? What it is, the two things I've mentioned it to you before, the Fed's dual mandate is maximum employment and stable prices. That right there is inherently volatile, because when employment is maximized, well then employers, they have to compete with higher wages in order to attract workers, and that makes prices go up, destabilizing the prices will stable. Prices is the second part of the dual mandate. So that's why it always seems like there's this lightning rod attention on Jay Powell in the Fed. It is because the dual mandate is inherently volatile. Now, you know what I think about predicting mortgage rates. I don't like to do it because it's an almost impossible task, like the myth of Sisyphus, that Greek myth about rolling a boulder up a hill wells, Fargo says mortgage rates will go down to just six and a half percent by the end of this year, so not much of a drop. And also by the end of next year, almost two years from now, they'll still be just six and a half percent. And other C rates rising from here. So there is broad consensus that there's zero reason to think that artificially low rates are going to return anytime in the near term, perhaps even in the intermediate term, coming up on a future episode of the show here and soon, how to use AI in real estate investing today, let's talk about mortgages and a special loan type.

Today, we are back with the national leader in providing Americans with income property loans. She runs the operation at Ridge lending group. She's been doing this 25 years she's an investor herself. It is their CEO and president, Caeli Ridge,

Caeli Ridge 9:06

Keith, thank you for having me.

Keith Weinhold 9:08

There does seem to be one US president. That makes a lot of news lately, but Caeli is still the most noteworthy mortgage type of President, I suppose. And just like GRE Ridge focuses on education and Caeli mortgage rates. It's the topic that everyone wants to talk about. I don't predict mortgage rates, but I know that you'll Talk That Talk a little. And previously, many expected Jerome Powell and the Fed to drop the rate four times this year, then two and now more and more expect zero rate cuts at all this year, even opening the door for rate increases if inflation persists. So tell us about the propensities of this year's mortgage rate direction.

Caeli Ridge 9:51

I think that I agree with a lot of the volume out there related to interest rates kind of stay in the course. I don't think we're going to see too much of a decline. There's. Certainly, Keith, we talk about this at nauseum. There's all kinds of things that could derail that statement that we can't prepare for, we couldn't predict for, but I think overall rates are going to stay steady. I think that whether you like them or you don't like them, the tariffs tend to come with an inflationary tone. And if that's the case, it's going to put Jerome and his buddies at the Fed in a tough position to do what they had hoped to do with the easing, the monetary easing. So I don't expect to see it, but I'm hopeful who knows. Who knows?

Keith Weinhold 10:29

Now, for you, the listener and viewer here, when you really want to know what moves rates around, Caeli talk to us about this persistently high spread, and what that means is that historic difference between mortgage rates and the yield on the 10 year treasury note.

Caeli Ridge 10:47

I feel like a lot of what that's going to attach itself to is the inflation, and then, more specifically, when we talk about llpas, and I think we've talked about this in the past, loan level price adjustments, mortgage backed securities secondary market, right? This is an investment that is bought and sold on the New York Stock Exchange, right? These are investments that carry value. And while the Treasury is usually the one that people will look at to predict where interest rates are going to go, I feel like in this higher rate environment, the secondary market understands that these mortgage backed securities are going to be paying off in advance of profitability. Now this gets a little bit complicated, but the easy way to explain it is is that if you secure a loan today at, say, seven and a half percent, if the anticipation is that interest rates over the next three years, maybe not in the next year, but two years, even three years, are going to decline. The mortgage that was closed today will likely pay off via a refinance. In that event, it's not reached the maturity date, such that when that initial mortgage backed security was purchased on the secondary market, it will have to pay off before the investor has been made whole or profitable. As a result, the margins it's called on in my world, it's called YSP, yield spread premium will not be met. So they're baking in certain levers, or they're hedging, as another way to say it, so that they're not left with those negative balances when these things do pay off when interest rates come down, because interest rates are not a straight line, they go up, they go down, they go east, they go west. So as a result, they're planning far in advance into the future. So I think that has a lot to do with it.

Keith Weinhold 12:33

Real Estate industries are shrinking, and it's all related to the fact that back in 2021 the number of existing homes sold peaked at almost 7 million, but last year, it was only about 4 million. That is a huge drawdown. The number of US Realtors is dropping since it peaked in 2023 and Caeli, from what I can see, the number of loan officers, even operating has dropped precipitously over the last four years, it's a reminder that the strong survive and in the mortgage industry, top service is what savvy borrowers need. You go with the people that consistently advise you to take your time and look at your long term strategy and make the correct decision, not always the one giving like 1/8 of a percent lower and an interest rate, so any lender can get you the next loan, and few are going to help you with your long term strategy. With this overall lower volume of transactions taking place, what are your thoughts about how it's impacted the mortgage and lending industries?

Caeli Ridge 13:37

It's such a good question. I'm glad that you asked it, and I really do think it speaks to the experts in the space consumers, our borrowers, as we call them, have to be, I believe, a little bit more discerning about who they want to align themselves with and who they want to work with as it relates to the interest rate. We've had this conversation off book. Ridge doesn't sell rate or cost. Now we're competitive, but we're never going to be the lowest possible lender out there. There's always going to be somebody that can undercut for an eighth, like you said, a quarter point, a few 100 bucks here and there. And we just don't get into that, our value adds far exceed an eighth of a point in rate, which, by the way, you probably can predict what I'm going to say next, if you're not doing the math, just as a sidebar listener, the difference in payment, and that's really where the focus should be. The difference in payment on an eighth or a quarter percent in interest rate on $100,000 is all of 5,7,8, bucks a month. Okay, so make sure you're doing the math, but the value adds that come with the education that we provide the 49 states, large footprint and the diversity of loan product, I think, far outweigh any eighth or few $100 difference when you're comparing side by side. I'm not saying that you don't want to get comparisons and you don't want to be a smart, informed consumer, but it really does matter that your lender understands known, owner occupied understands how to. Or take you from point A to point Z today and five and 10 years down the road.

Keith Weinhold 15:05

you've been a mortgage industry leader for a long time with this lower volume. Have you seen mortgage companies implode close shop?

Caeli Ridge 15:15

Absolutely, we have access to those data points and the number of loan officers just the individual in the doing the transaction, not including processors and underwriters and funders and doctors, but just the loan officers. I believe, in 2024 reduced by a margin of 53% gosh, yeah, that's a big number.

Keith Weinhold 15:35

Yes, this is really hit the industry substantially. Are there any other interesting industry trends in this environment where we have persistently higher rates, I make sure not to say high, because historically, mortgage rates are still not high. The long term average being seven and three quarter percent on the 30 year fixed rate mortgage Are there any other trends that this loss in activity has created?

Caeli Ridge 15:58

I feel like the informed investor is still finding ways to profit in real estate. They're finding diversity is key, which I'm a big proponent of as are you. That means single family residence to two to four units, cash flow versus appreciation, the short term rental, the long term rental, the midterm rental, making sure that they have a good, rounded portfolio is key. And there are some which I think we're going to be talking about today. There are some mortgage tools that I really feel like, for an informed investor, are allowing them to continue and propel further, even scale into the 25 and 26 years.

Keith Weinhold 16:36

What's happened to the volume of owner occupied transactions versus investor transactions. I would imagine that investor mortgage transactions really aren't down that much.

Caeli Ridge 16:47

not that much. I'd say there was a small blip, but I feel like we've made those up with some of the burr strategy loans we do, of course, all kinds of mortgage related transactions specifically for investors. And one of those products is a short term bridge loan, which would apply to the BRRRR method by rehab, rent and refinance. So we've been seeing quite a bit of that, where the investor will find a good deal on market or off market, where they can put a little bit of lipstick on it and then refinance it at the ARV or after repair value. So anything that we might have lost in just a traditional 30 year fixed straight purchase transactions, I feel like we made up in the other but it wasn't a big margin.

Keith Weinhold 17:26

What if there was a mortgage product out there that just didn't work like other mortgage loan products do? For example, your deposits or the payments that you make on this special type of mortgage is applied to the principal first and only. There are a lot of other interesting characteristics about this particular mortgage product. We're going to discuss that when we come back. You're listening to get rich education. We've got the CEO and President of ridge lending group back with us, an investor centric lender. I'm your host, Keith Weinhold.

hey, you can get your mortgage loans at the same place where I get mine at Ridge lending group NMLS, 42056, they provided our listeners with more loans than any provider in the entire nation, because they specialize in income properties. They help you build a long term plan for growing your real estate empire with leverage. You can start your pre qualification and chat with President Caeli Ridge personally. Start Now while it's on your mind @ridgelendinggroup.com that's Ridge lendinggroup.com

Rick Sharga 19:48

this is Rich charga, housing market intelligence analyst. Listen to get rich education with Keith Weinhold, and don't quit your Daydream.

Keith Weinhold 20:06

Welcome back to get rich education. We're talking with a steady guest over time, because not only are they an income property centric mortgage loan company that do mortgage loans in 49 of the 50 states, but they're also centered on education and looking out for you, the investor, over the long term. And cheyley, such an interesting product that you offer is called the all in one loan. It's been a long time since you and I have really talked about this. What it is is a first lien HELOC. It's a way for you to use the equity in your existing properties. You can do it with either a primary residence or investment properties. There are just so many reasons why an all in one load just kicks the butt on a conventionally amortizing loan, including that all payments are applied to principal first and only, and a lot of other exciting things. So Caeli, why don't we back up and just describe what the all in one loan is big picture.

Caeli Ridge 21:05

Now there is a lot to unpack, so we're going to take our time. Listener. First of all, let me just explain. Why is it called the all in one it's called that because it doubles as both a mortgage in the form of an open ended revolving HELOC and checking and savings. Both of those two features are combined, hence the all in one as a way of diminishing the amount of interest that can accrue over time. Let me explain so any revolving account, any account, including a credit card, for example, but first lien HELOC, second lien HELOC, whichever doesn't matter, open ended revolving is the key. Any open ended, revolving account will accrue interest daily based on two factors, the first being that day's balance and that months, in this case, interest rate, fully indexed interest rate. I'll come to interest rate later. As a result, you now have control largely over how much interest can accrue. Now let's take that statement and transfer it and look at it against an amortized, closed ended mortgage. You sign up for a 30 year fixed mortgage today. Let's say it's 7% whatever the interest rate is, is really irrelevant. Your principal and interest payment are defined on day one. There is no changing that monthly payment. Now you could certainly accelerate the payoff of that mortgage debt by doing what applying additional extra principal payments, right? But what happens to that extra principal payment when you send it off with your 30 year fixed mortgage payment,

Keith Weinhold 22:34

it drops your loan balance, but your minimum payment amount is the exact same the next month,

Caeli Ridge 22:38

right? And then what happens to all that liquidity that you had prior, it's now illiquid. Right? Exactly that off

Keith Weinhold 22:45

you've just transferred your cash flow into equity. Financial freedom is created by doing the opposite thing and changing equity into cash flow,

Caeli Ridge 22:52

very illiquid, and not the way an investor typically is going to want to run his or her business. So hence the all in one. Now for those of you that have heard the term velocity banking or infinity banking, maybe whole life insurance policy has a similar tone to this. The all in one, I believe, offers even more flexibility for variety of reasons that we're going to get into. But if you've ever heard those terms, that's similar to what this is. So I want to start by I usually like to give an example, okay, and provide some visual aid so that people can connect the dots. Let's start with the 30 year or a fixed rate mortgage. Just because I feel like, especially in the US, this particular loan product, or its concept is widely used in much of the rest of the world, in the US, I feel like we're sort of preconditioned here to really only understand that closed ended, amortized mortgage. So I'm going to start with an example there that actually highlights or leads into the concept of the all in one. So I want you to imagine a 30 year fixed mortgage and a 15 year fixed mortgage. Both of these mortgages originated or started at $400,000 as the balance on day one. The 30 year fixed mortgage locked at an interest rate of 4% and the 15 year fixed mortgage locked at an interest rate of 7% now, when I go through this exercise and I give this example to people, I ask them the question, Well, which one would you choose? And without exception, if they don't understand amortization, they are going to select that 4% 30 year fixed mortgage, because they don't understand that it's about speed. When you run the math and you look at an actual amortization table, you'll see that you'll pay $40,000 more in interest on a 4% 30 year or 360 month, versus a 7% 15 year or 180 month. So the point here, and what I'm illustrating, is it's speed. Now let's segue back over to the all in one. It's all about speed and how much interest we allow to accrue over time. So as you had mentioned, to start the kick this off, Keith, every deposit acts like a payment. Now here's where I struggled with this in learning. And when this was first introduced to me years ago, this part of it really caught me off guard. I had to really dig in and try to focus on what are they talking about? What do they mean? There's no payment due on the all in one. I'm gonna say that again. There's no payment due on the all in one. Think about your 30 year fixed mortgage. If you don't make a payment, what happens?

Keith Weinhold 25:19

You're defaulting, you're in trouble. You become delinquent,

Caeli Ridge 25:23

right? So that is not how this loan is set up. And it's not smoke and mirrors, okay? It's nothing fancy. The deposits that you make from ordinary income from all sources really Okay, so we want to talk about this is really special for investors, because we have access to gross rents, the rental income that's coming in before we send it back out the door, along with our net wages and every other source of income, deposits that we're getting can be utilized to your advantage. One of the ways in which I describe this is, I like to say you've become your own bank, so you have this line of credit, and your gross rents and all of your net wages are going to deposit into your checking account, driving that principal balance down, dollar for dollar, so that the interest accrual is diminished. Because remember what I said a few seconds ago, the interest is calculated on any open ended revolving account based on two factors, the balance for the day and the interest rate, so the more you have in depository income, and you drop it into your checking account, the longer it stays there, the lower the amount of interest is going to accrue within a 30 day billing cycle. Now let me just paint one more picture, and then we can open up to what questions come from this. So I want you to imagine this is I'm going to use easy, round math. I want you to imagine that you have an unpaid principal balance on your mortgage, on your HELOC of $100,000 just for round easy mouth, and that you bring in $10,000 a month in income from all sources. And just to keep it simple, we're going to say that that 10,000 comes in on day one of month one. Okay, so here's our 100 grand sitting there. My $10,000 is deposited into my checking account. Now my balance is $90,000 right? That 10 grand is not going to be touched. You will not touch that $10,000 for 29 days out of a 30 day billing cycle. And I'm giving you optimal tricks. Okay, this is how you want to use it optimally, yeah. Day one, instead of paying interest on $100,000 you're paying interest on paying interest on $90,000 and you're going to pay interest only on $90,000 for 29 days out of a 30 day billing cycle. Well, how am I going to make all my bills? And how am I going to eat? And how am I going to pay my cell phone? And what am I going to do? You're going to use a credit card, or credit cards of your choice, the ones that provide the best points, or whichever you prefer doesn't really matter. To pay all those monthly living expenses now we don't want to pay any interest on our credit cards. Right? 18, 28% whatever it is. No thank you. So now we're going to go to day 30 of that 30 day billing cycle. Right? 29 days that 10 grand has sat in there. Our balance has been 90. Our interest has accrued on that 90. On day 30, the credit card has amassed $9,000 in expenses. You've spent $9,000 for the month on food, gas utilities, car payments, cell phone, everything goes on that card. Day 30, you go into your checking account where your 10 grand has been sitting, and you write a check to pay off the credit card $9,000 so for one day of the month, we went from 90,000 in a balance to 99,000 right. 9000 had to come out of the 10 to pay off the credit card. We had $1,000 left over. Now I want you to fast forward into month to day one our starting balance, because that $1,000 leftover was our residual income, our discretionary our savings, it's what was not spent, but I have full access to it. Should I need it? So day one, month two 99, 000 is my outstanding balance. I drop in my $10,000 of income. 89,000 is what I'm going to be paying interest on for 29 days of a 30 day billing cycle. So this should allow listeners to connect some dots. There are two components of compound interest savings, the first being daily. We've got our income dropping in there. It's just sitting so daily savings, compound interest savings. And then that leftover savings, that residual, that $1,000 is going to be left in there month after month 24/7, access. That's monthly compound interest savings. So those are the two components that make this product profoundly impactful in diminishing that interest accrual over time. Why don't I take a pause

Keith Weinhold 29:30

so with the all in one loan, we're really integrating our consumer accounts with our mortgage. Absolutely right? Is there a way to automate these payments associated with this?

Caeli Ridge 29:43

Yes, I'm glad you asked. So everything that you have become accustomed to today in your checking and savings is going to be exactly the same with the all in one this mortgage is housed by an FDIC insured banking institution. It'll be one of two places depending on which. Which ends up picking up the rights. It'll be North Point or merchants, bank, those are the two that service this loan. Feel free to check them out when you think about the automation of your checking and savings accounts with your B of A, Chase, Wells, Fargo, whomever, credit union, whomever you bank with. Now there will be no difference to that experience and this experience so online bill pay, debit cards, routing numbers, paper checks. Should you still use those mobile apps? If you get a paper check, you take a picture and it uploads to the account. All the same exact automation as you have become used to today will apply with the all in one

Keith Weinhold 30:36

and you described how the all in one loan is an open ended loan versus your plain vanilla 30 or fixed amortizing loan, which is closed ended. For those that don't know, what do those terms open ended and close ended mean?

Caeli Ridge 30:48

So amortized is predetermined over the period of time that you've gotten the mortgage for. So whether it be a 10 year, a 20 year, 2515, 30, whatever it is, it is closed ended, so the interest rate that you secured against the loan amount that you've taken, they have come up with the formula, the calculation that says, This is how much interest you're going to pay over this length of time. And the longer the amount of time that you have selected, let's say a 30 or maybe even a 40 year. Those do exist, in some cases, the longer the amount of time that closed ended amortized mortgages in play, the more interest you're going to pay. Now, it keeps your payment lower for sure, but they're going to make it up in the interest that you'll pay in the long time. Now the open ended revolving just means that it is available to pay down and draw up, and pay down and draw up. It is not closed

Keith Weinhold 31:40

and then with those conventional mortgages, typically, especially when you originate a new loan for years, most of your payment goes to interest, which would not be the case with the all in one loan.

Caeli Ridge 31:53

Exa ctly. Yeah. So anybody that's looked at an amortization table knows the first 10 ish years, we'll just keep using the most common, 30 year fixed first 10 years or so, maybe even a few years past that, 90% of your payment is going to go to the interest. You won't start chunking down any principal until the back end of that mortgage, 180 or complete flip to the all in one every dollar that goes in there drives the principal down first.

Keith Weinhold 32:18

That is huge, even if you pay a higher interest rate on your all in one loan, you can see how you have fewer dollars out of pocket in interest paid, which is what really matters to you,

Caeli Ridge 32:30

exactly, right? So think about a 20% interest rate. If you're paying 20% interest on 50,000 then 7% interest on 500,000 you can see how the math will work in your favor, regardless of the number in the interest rate in comparing side to side. And one of the other things that we haven't touched on, and maybe this is a good segue, Keith, it's not just the daily deposits. We have clients that take out a, you know, a million dollar line of credit, but they have $500,000 sitting idle for whatever it is their business needs. And in the E commerce. It doesn't even matter, but they have this amount of cash that they're simply going to take from this vehicle a regular checking account over here, and drop it in here, and that interest is saved. That $500,000 that was sitting idle doing nothing over here is now saving interest at an incredible rate. So it's not just the daily and monthly deposits. If you just have idle cash, or you know you're going to be getting a bonus or a tax refund, or whatever it is, those monies that would otherwise just sit in a one to 2% maybe interest bearing checking savings account can now be applied over here, driving down that balance further, dollar for dollar saving in that interest.

Keith Weinhold 33:39

So we are opportunistic investors here, when we see an accumulation of equity in a property or cash in an account, we want to get that moving with this all in one loan again, which is like a first lien HELOC, I would imagine that would we get plenty of room to borrow more in there, and there's been plenty of pay down, we might want to draw against it again for another purchase, and let this thing be flexible like an accordion back and forth as you're drawing the balance down and you're extending it out again. So really, the way I see the flexibility with the all in one loan is that you don't have to go through another mortgage loan origination each time you want to buy a property. You can just draw against this account.

Caeli Ridge 34:20

And we're still just scratching the surface in what this thing does exactly right? And I've said this twice now, you've become your own bank. Yeah, okay, if you pay it down over a short period of time, let's say that you had half a million dollars and you were able to reduce that down to 300,000 there's a $200,000 spread there that, at your discretion, do not have to re pre qualify and pay closing costs. Again, you don't have to ask permission or get it approved, for some reason, those are your funds, your equity, your dollars to do what you want, when you want, how you want. The other thing too is probably a good place to point this out, safety net, as long as there is a spread between what you owe and the credit limit. Whatever that is. If something were to happen That was unfortunate, some unfortunate set of circumstance befell the family, whatever, and no income was coming into the household zero. What would happen if you didn't have money to make your 30 year fixed mortgage payment? You're going to ruin your credit and go into default. Well, the reverse is true with the all in one if there is a spread between the balance and the limit and you needed to not make any deposits, the only thing that's going to happen in that case is interest is going to accrue on top of that balance. The only time a payment deposit is mandated with the all in one is when the balance is about to exceed the limit. That's the only time. Now I'm not saying that that's the way people are going to use it, but that's the reality of it. So what if this? Let's take this down the rabbit hole for a second. If you couldn't make a deposit, you're not going to go into default, right? You're simply going to add some interest on top of the existing balance. But what if you needed to draw from it for living expenses for a couple of months? Yeah? What if you needed, you know, $5,000 a month for three months until you got back on your feet, whatever it is you have access to do that. There's your safety net. You just simply draw from it, as long as there's a spread between the balance and the limit, those are your funds to do with what you choose

Keith Weinhold 36:13

if one takes out a HELOC, whether that's in an all in one loan form or not, something that I've advocated with my listeners for years is that now you do have this line that you can draw against to your point Haley, it's effectively another layer of insurance for that borrower or investor. So if you're interested in keeping down your insurance premium, you can get a HELOC or an all in one loan increase your insurance deductible, which can lower your insurance premium and increase your cash flow.

Caeli Ridge 36:43

Good point. You know, I hadn't even thought about that before. That is a new one on me that is actually brilliant. Yes.

Keith Weinhold 36:50

now we had a listener quite a while ago, Mark from Granite Bay, California, right in Mark's a great long time listener. When he found our show, he wanted to go back and re listen to all the old episodes. And he listens to several episodes multiple times. And Mark wrote in because he heard you on the show quite a while ago. And Mark says, I've been using the all in one loans, amazing mortgage balance deduction. But as a GRE listener, I know I can't be lured in by that alone. I also need to utilize its leverage. I just used my all in one loan Mark continues to say, probably, like a lot of others, to buy a duplex for mid south home buyers in all cash and then refinance that loan into a fanniefreda 30 year from my all in one loan simulations, and Caeli has an all in one loan simulation on her website that she'll tell you about. But to finish Mark's question, Mark says, I have gathered in these simulations that as long as properties are cash flowing, the best use of the all in one seems to be to keep repeating what we did on our first duplex purchase, use the all in one loan, to buy properties in all cash, and then later refi it into better debt or leverage, and then continue to repeat the process. Is that a valid way to use it? That's Mark's question.

Caeli Ridge 38:03

Absolutely. Mark, Well done, sir. And there's a few points here that I want to take a minute and peel back, Keith, so one of the first things that I would say that's really great about that philosophy or that strategy is going to be that on a cash out refinance of the property that was paid cash, using the all in one we get to use the appraised value. So under the circumstances, if you paid $100,000 for it, and perhaps it valued at 110, 151, 20, whatever it is, then we as the lender are going to refinance on a cash out refinance using that higher appraised value, so you have a little bit more leverage there, and potentially get more in that loan to value when you're comparing what you're getting back versus what you put in. The other thing, obviously, is that when you're dealing with a turnkey or a seller, an agent, whatever, everybody knows that when you can come to the table with cash, yeah, right, you become the more desirable buyer. There's that obvious piece, and then in terms of that strategy and that simulation. So please, yes, that is absolutely the first thing that I'm going to do with anybody that calls in is I'm going to get on the phone with them, a teams call, and we're going to do the simulator together. But I encourage everybody to get in there and play around with it. If you're not quite sure what data points it's asking for, let us know, or we'll do one together. But that simulator is going to allow you to compare the all in one to either an existing mortgage on a primary rental property or a new traditional mortgage. Let's say you're thinking about buying an investment property with a 30 year fixed and you want to compare that to the all in one, or maybe you want to refinance one of your existing properties, so you can compare it to existing versus new. And then within that simulation, it will allow you to forecast additional spending. That will allow you to say, I want to take out $50,000 in month 22 and it'll reformulate where the simulation of saved interest, payoff time, all of those things will be available to you within that simulator. It's very slick.

Keith Weinhold 40:00

And now that you, the investor, have the ability to pay all cash, not only can you close faster, but a lot of times, sellers are willing to give you a discount, since you can close faster and pay all cash, and then it's up to you down the road to go ahead and refinance that into a conventional product, or however else you want to do it. Caeli, what else should we know about the all in one loan?

Caeli Ridge 40:24

Couple things I would share. First of all, the qualification metric for the all in one is going to be a little bit more restrictive than a traditional 30 year fixed mortgage, so be prepared for a little extra brain damage. I know that getting qualified for mortgages is not everybody's favorite activity. I get it. There's a lot that goes on to it. It's not like the good old days where some remember you could fog a mirror and get a mortgage, but the all in one does take it to another level, even beyond what you're used to now. So debt to income ratio, I'll give you the specifics really quickly, so just be prepared. I like to set that expectation. Debt to income ratio caps at 43% on the all in one versus 50% that we would have from a traditional Fannie Freddie, 30 year fixed. The reserve requirement is calculated based on the line limit. It's dependent on the debt to income ratio. I'll just leave it there. It'll either be 10% or 15% of the line limit. So if the limit was 100 grand, 10,000 or 15,000 is the reserve requirement, and then the minimum credit score requirement. Owner Occupied is 700 non owner occupied is 720 so a little bit higher on the bar for qualification for the all in one.

Keith Weinhold 41:33

Who is this for? And who is it not for?

Caeli Ridge 41:36

It is for anyone generally that has at least 10% discretionary income at the end of the month. Typically, everybody's circumstances are different. I encourage you to play with the simulator. Get on my schedule. Let's do it together. But more often than not, we find that 10% left over at the end of the month is generally enough for it to work for the individual, and for those of you that got 2% interest rates during the pandemic, I just want you to know that I'm running the simulator against those loans day in and day out. And I would say, I'll give you a 65% of the time the all in one is beaten the, you know, what, out of a two and a half percent 30 year fixed mortgage

Keith Weinhold 42:12

that is really interesting. Well, there's a lot of opportunity and flexibility with the all in one loan. Is there any last thing that we should know about it.

Caeli Ridge 42:22

Start doing your due diligence. This does take a minute to unpack. Don't get overwhelmed by all the information. We've talked about some real tangible stuff here, but there's quite a bit that there would be to uncover. So take your time. Call us. We'll walk through it step by step

Keith Weinhold 42:36

and get started on that simulator and really see what it can do for you to make that actionable. Caeli, Where should one start?

Caeli Ridge 42:44

Head to our website, ridgelendinggroup.com you can email us info@ridgelendinggroup.com and obviously we're always a phone call away at 855, 74, Ridge

Keith Weinhold 42:54

and again, you can find that all in one loan simulator, where you can plug in some real numbers and see how it can benefit you. A friendly representative from Ridge can help you. Go ahead and do that there. So there's a lot of excitement about the all in one loan, especially, or an investor that has a GRE mindset philosophy and thinks about the opportunity of dead equity. But now that we've talked about that, tell us just quickly about some of the other products that you offer in there at ridge.

Caeli Ridge 43:23

So I think one of the real value adds for us is that we're not a one size fits all. We have an extremely diverse menu, as I like to call it, of loan programs. The all in one is at the top of a short list of my favorites. For some individuals, you got the fanniefriddies. You've got non QM, which includes DSCR, debt service, coverage ratio, bank statement loans, asset depletion loans. We have ground up construction for those that are interested in that. We have our short term bridge loans that I talked briefly about, where if you need fix and flip fix and hold, potentially, you need shorter term money, commercial loans for commercial products, commercial loans for residential in a cross collateralization way, if that is to your advantage. So as you can see, it's quite diverse.

Keith Weinhold 44:03

It's been valuable as always, and I definitely learned a few extra things that I did not know about the all in one loan myself. JAYLEE Reyes, it's been great having you back on the show, Keith. Thank you.

Now a mortgage company, of course, they have overhead and employees that they have to pay and so on. And you know, from talking with Chaley some more, I learned that they don't even make much profit from all in one loans. We wanted to discuss it together today for your benefit. However, though there are some real fees with the all in one loan, you pay points of three to 4% of the draw in closing costs only, but it's a one time fee, not every time you draw against it. She also let me know that it does not make your taxes substantially. More complicated, if you think that it can help you clear a few minutes, learn more and get hooked up with that all in one loan simulator, where they will help you through it. Big thanks to Caeli Ridge today, they really make themselves available. You can just call 855, 74, Ridge. Or if it's more your style, visit them at Ridge lending group.com Until next week, I'm your host. Keith Weinhold, don't quit your Daydream.

Speaker 1 45:31

Keith Weinhold 45:59

The preceding program was brought to you by your home for wealth, building, getricheducation.com.

Direct download: GREepisode542_.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 4:00am EST

Mon, 17 February 2025

Keith discusses the impact of baby boomers on the housing market, noting that contrary to popular belief, many boomers are choosing to age in place. He also addresses the negative effects of gambling, particularly sports gambling, on young men, including financial ruin and increased bankruptcies.

54% of baby boomers state that they will never sell their homes.

People aged 55+ own more than half of U.S. homes.

The overall population growth in the US has grown at its fastest rate since 2001, reaching over 340 million.

Millennials and Gen Z, the largest generations, are driving future housing demand.

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540: Investor Insights: Amenities That Drive Big Rental Profits

Complete episode transcript:

Automatically Transcribed With Otter.ai

Keith Weinhold 0:01

Welcome to GRE. I'm your host, Keith Weinhold. All the baby boomers are about to sell off their homes and downsize, unleashing a glut of supply onto the market, and housing prices crash. Is there cogency to that theory or not? I give you a definitive answer, the Trump bump, then later, a pernicious vice is destroying more people's lives today, especially young men and almost no one is talking about this. It's leading to lower credit scores, more bankruptcies and even more suicides today on get rich education

since 2014 the powerful get rich education podcast has created more passive income for people than nearly any other show in the world. This show teaches you how to earn strong returns from passive real estate investing in the best markets without losing your time being a flipper or landlord. Show Host Keith Weinhold writes for both Forbes and Rich Dad advisors and delivers a new show every week since 2014 there's been millions of listener downloads of 188 world nations. He has a list show guests and key top selling personal finance author Robert Kiyosaki, get rich education can be heard on every podcast platform, plus it has its own dedicated Apple and Android listener phone apps build wealth on the go with the get rich education podcast. Sign up now for the get rich education podcast or visit get rich education.com.

Corey Coates 1:25

You're listening to the show that has created more financial freedom than nearly any show in the world. This is get rich education.

Keith Weinhold 1:41

Welcome to GRE from Hyannis, Massachusetts to Hiram, Utah and across 188 nations worldwide. I'm Keith Weinhold, and you are inside get rich education episode 541 just another slack jawed and snaggletoothed podcaster here now a popular, I suppose, media narrative that's been out there for a long time is this premise that US housing prices are going to crash hard because all the aging baby boomers are going to sell their homes, and Boomers are the biggest generation in all of American history. This is just going to magnify the price collapse. It means far more home sellers than buyers. So soon enough, sellers will have to keep cutting prices. Everyone's going to undercut everybody to compete with all of these for sale homes. So as a result, everybody's property values are going to collapse today. Let's look at how bad it will get. Should you get ahead of this and sell it all now and then? I'll even tell you when this popular narrative will supposedly happen with boomers selling en masse, or won't it happen at all. That's what we're looking at, the term silver tsunami. You've probably heard that thrown around in the real estate world. It actually refers to pent up housing stock that older homeowners will eventually choose to sell, which would have that effect of flooding the market with all this new inventory. All right. Now let's define what we're talking about here. Baby Boomers are the generation born just after World War Two, between 1946 and 64 that makes them between the ages of 61 and 79 this year. Okay, so basically, these people are in their 60s and 70s. That's their age. My parents are baby boomers. President Trump is at the upper age limit for a boomer, but they're not all as old as you think. I mean the youngest baby boomers include Michelle Obama, Sandra Bullock and Rob Lowe. So not all boomers are like super old, but see, it is a big generation of over 76 million people. So whatever they do really moves the economy. And maybe you've heard it been said, My gosh, what if we have more dyers than buyers? But now a more nascent trend is that you hear about more and more boomers and people older than boomers not selling their home instead wanting to age in place. And that just means they want to stay in their home and not go to a nursing home or assisted living. And that was recently quantified in a survey that Housing Wire reported on it found that 54% of baby boomers say that they'll never sell their homes, some of them passing homes along as inheritance and see often that's because their home is paid off and assisted living care costs are through. To the roof, more than half of boomers don't have any mortgage at all. All right, so we've established that boomers aren't as old as most people think, and then a lot of them aren't planning to sell. But still, let's look for trouble here, because boomers are a huge group, and some portion of them are going to sell is they age, even if a lot of them say that they won't. How about the almost half of boomers with a mortgage? You know what? Here's the thing, if they downsized, like older people have traditionally done. I mean, my grandparents downsized long ago. But do you know what would happen if boomers downsized? Today? For most, their monthly mortgage payment would actually go up if they downsized. That's because of today's higher mortgage rates and home prices. And see, that's a financial reality that keeps them in place. They're never going to downsize. All right, so a lot of boomers are just not going to sell. But still, this wave of selling boomers crashing the housing market, this has been a popular narrative for, I don't know, maybe more than a decade. Now there's been a lot of smoke, so then where is the fire. That's another way to think about this. So there's got to be more to this. And there is, in fact, people age 55 plus, own more than half of the homes in the US. Did you know that? All right? Well, if we pull back from boomers, and let's just take a look at all homeowners of every age, people are staying in their homes longer, whether they're age 30 or 50 or 80, Americans now stay in the same home about 12 years. That is twice as long as 2005 Well, what that means is that homes don't come onto the market and people cannot buy what's not for sale. And then, of course, you've got the well documented interest rate lock in effect. That's a contributor here to people of all ages with 4% mortgages, they are reluctant to sell. And now what we're talking about here are demographics. Remember that quote, demography is destiny, the three word quote from 1800s era French philosopher Auguste Comte, and that's because it's completely predictable. If you're 32 years old today, in 10 years, you'll be 42 totally predictable. All right, if demographics could possibly crash housing crisis, let's step back and see what's going on with overall US, population growth. You know what? It just grew at its fastest rate since 2001 about a full 1% growth last year, yeah, we broke the 340 million population mark for the first time ever. And now, what about the portion that our immigrants, and what if a substantial amount of them get deported? I mean, after Trump settled into the White House for his second term, deportations began almost immediately. Is there enough population growth to buy from the boomers that do sell their homes? Well, if mortgage rates come down into the low fives, then maybe more boomers will sell and bring some more resale inventory onto the market. See, you need a good chunk, though, of buyers to come in from somewhere in order to support future housing prices. Well, where are those buyers going to be? Well, some people still don't realize that the largest generation in American history is, in fact, not baby boomers, it's millennials. They became the biggest group more than five years ago. In fact, Statista tells us that Gen Z isn't far behind them either. Yeah, Gen Z is almost as big as millennials as a group coming right behind them. And of course, this varies a little bit. Demographers parse the generations somewhat differently, but here's what the rise of the biggest generation means, millennials. They're aged 29 to 44 now, and there are over 70 million of them, and then almost as big the next group right behind them, Gen Z. They're ages 13 to 28 they alone number about 70 million themselves, even if you just completely leave the surge in immigration out of the picture and all the additional housing demand that immigration brings. So we're mainly just looking at the domestic side alone here. So. What's happened is that there were 4 million plus births per year from 1990 to 2010 providing a tailwind for housing demand through 2035, 2045, or later. Yeah, we had more births during many of those years than we did in the peak of the baby boom, which was 1957 like I've mentioned on the show before, the average age of a first time homebuyer is now a record high of 38 years old, per the NAR it's really taken a long time for some people to stop playing the video games and moving out of their parents basement. Okay, well, the peak birth year for the US was 2007 I just told you it was elevated between 1990 and 2010 but 2007 was that peak, alright? So take that peak and add 38 years to it, and you know what? The first time homebuyer demand is just going to continue to build, build, build, and not even reach its peak. Then until 2045 or so, the peak birth year 2007 plus 38 years, that is where the crush of future demand is coming from because that person born in 2007 on average, they're not even going to buy their first home until well into the 2040s

In fact, the number of Americans turning 35 every single year is High, and it just keeps increasing. It's over 4 million now, already up 25% since 2011 and this number of Americans turning 35 is going to keep rising for another decade or two. In fact, this year, it's going to approach 5 million Americans turning 35 new record territory coming. And I keep bringing this up because 35 is a key age, because by that time, almost everyone has moved out of their parents home, and so that's the time where people either need to rent or own themselves, pushing up both rents and prices, and that's why this wave of demand and pent up demand is just gonna keep coming. And by the way, those stats that I gave you there, they're all sourced from the US Census Bureau. I mean, this is exactly where the housing demand just keeps coming from. It's a big factor about why prices keep going up. The demand just keeps piling on, even though affordability worsened, the demand just keeps coming. And it's just going to keep on coming well in to the 2040s now it could very well ebb substantially by, say, the middle of the 2050s but we'll see, and that is still three decades away. And remember, all of this doesn't even include the additional population growth from immigration and how many non deportees that is going to add to the housing demand on top of this, and then, if that's not enough, there is even more future housing demand expected to come from the declining number of occupants per household. Yes, the reduced household size that Stokes housing demand. I touched on this with you a little before on a prior show. But let me go deeper as we continue to corrode this more dyers than buyers. Theory, as we break this down, people have smaller families today. I think everybody knows that back in 1960 there were 3.3 occupants per household. Today, it's just two and a half. And to give you a simple example of how this itself keeps stoking the housing demand, just say that there's a village of 100 people with three occupants per household, they would need 33 and 1/3 homes over time, when that drops to two occupants per household, that's the direction we're going now that same village needs 50 homes just in order to accommodate the shift in household structure. Well, 50 homes is 50% more than 33 and a third, well, that means 50% more homes are needed, and that's even in a scenario where the population stays the same. Yet it's not staying the same, it's rising, and the population is really rising fast for that key household form. Population age range of 35 to 38 years old. Fewer Americans are living together. I expect the housing market to continue shifting toward smaller household counts. One person households will keep rising. I expect that to be one of the most impactful housing trends of this entire 21st century, and it's also really helping fuel a loneliness epidemic, which is another subject unto itself. Well, the three main drivers of this rise in single person households is that first people are delaying those major life events compared to previous generations. They're attending school longer. They're marrying later. They're buying homes later. They're having children later. And as these events are postponed, the time some young adults spend living alone or without children increases. They're playing video games longer as well. The second driver of these single person households is falling. Birth rates when people have children, many are having fewer than previous generations, reducing the average household size. That's pretty obvious. And then third the population composition is getting older. And older, people tend to live with fewer people. If life expectancy rises, this component of the trend would only intensify. Yes, the whole Brian Johnson thing, he is the health influencer that says we now have alive, the first generation that's going to live forever due to advances in longevity in technology. I mean, my gosh, if he is right, what would that do to housing demand? I mean, and it would also push up our average age even more. Gosh, yet, at the same time that all this demand keeps pushing up. America already has a well publicized overall housing shortage of several million housing units. You already know that story well, construction has picked up a little, but not enough to keep up with demand. In fact, American housing supply is still about 30% below pre pandemic levels. So suffice to say, let me give you a satisfying definitive answer here, when are selling boomers going to crash housing prices? It is highly unlikely that that can even happen at all. In fact, you see fewer stories about this than you used to. More people have come to realize that it is just not happening. And looking at us demographics over the next few cycles, a lot more people will need homes demand continuing to exceed supply. This is why home prices should just keep rising from here. In fact, I have been an active single family rental property investor here myself, single family is where perhaps the greatest shortage is and the greatest demand is at the same time I am owning something that people are definitely going to need more of. Remember, demography is destiny, and they're going to pay more and more for it. When mortgage rates fall, it's probably going to bring in even more buying activity, and now all of this continued upward, long term, future price momentum for housing, of course, that all existed before Donald John Trump step into the White House to start his second term last month. I think the Trump factor, or Trump bump, you know what often gets somewhat exaggerated for what it can do to the economy and housing prices, right? I mean, I've talked to you before, it's about the decisions that you make more so than decisions that a politician makes, but Trump is doing some things on a pretty seismic level these nascent immigrant deportations, that obviously can increase the cost of labor you're exporting away your low cost labor with immigrant deportations. I mean, that is inflation tariffs, though some tariffs have been negotiated away for the time being, that's more inflation. So deportations mean wage increases. That's more inflation. Increased wages mean increased rents. Trump talks lower taxes. Lower taxes can then mean higher rent payments. Proposals to eliminate. Made taxes on tips over time and Social Security, that means that Americans and retirees are gonna have more disposable income. More income means higher rent collections, fewer delinquencies, and potentially rising home prices as affordability improves. That's a lot of the good news. It's not all rosy news. You better look out for high tax states salt adjustments that state and local income tax and a deduction cap could harm their property values. We're talking about places like California, New York and New Jersey, the 2017 Trump tax cuts and Jobs Act that gave real estate investors some really juicy benefits, like 20% pass through deduction for LLCs and bonus depreciation on rental properties and lower corporate tax rates too. Combined this stuff, it all keeps more money in your pocket and allows for bigger deals with better cash flow.

We're talking about Trump bump factors on the real estate market here, other proposals on the table, other things like tax breaks for domestic production that could boost us construction, leading to more badly needed housing supply that could lower building costs and investment opportunities in niche in growth markets. Remember opportunity zones, and then what about targeting wealthy investors? We'll see what happens, but Trump's plan removes tax breaks for hedge funds and billionaire sports owners. But could real estate investors get hurt a little on that side too? Maybe look for changes to the 1031 or depreciation strategies. But you know, the 1031 exchange has been around for over 100 years. I would be surprised if it went away completely, and yes, though they have been postponed, if 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada do go into place and the countries retaliate, as they've been shown to do, it would add point seven 6% to US inflation and subtract 410 of a percent from US GDP growth. Aren't those two projections Interesting? Yeah, those estimates were compiled by the Yale budget lab. So adding about three quarters of a percentage point to the overall inflation rate with these tariffs. I mean everything we're talking about the price of your housing or your car tires or your tomatoes and romaine lettuce. I mean, that effect could take money out of people's pockets. Yes, we know that Trump wants to bring down interest rates, but I don't know how he's going to do that. I mean, as you know, more inflation correlates with higher rates, not lower ones. See, you just can't get it all. You just can't have it all. And of course, mortgage rates are not historically high. They've simply been normalized after years of being artificially low. Rates are normal. So normalized is really a term that I like to use. So really, to help summarize what I've shared with you here in the first half of the show, a housing price crash induced by a boomer sell off is not a thing. In fact, almost Oppositely, demographics in this pent up demand should raise up future home prices, and to a lesser extent, a Trump bump can as well. Yes, gosh, Trump just has an insatiable fascination for tariffs. It is truly amazing, and it has more stick to itiveness than say, Mark Zuckerberg, recent fascination with masculine energy and gold chains, that's for sure.

Hey, before we get into the pernicious vice that's destroying more people's lives today, especially young men and almost no one is talking about this, it's leading to lower credit scores, more bankruptcies and even more suicides. First, I've got some cool things to tell you. About two weeks ago here on the show event, host Robert Helms of the real estate guys and I invited you to join us on the terrific Investor Summit at sea, that cruise on the Caribbean. Besides the two of us, there are a number of other great faculty members. Robert Kiyosaki recently announced that he's going to be joining us on the faculty as well. So you'll get to meet and learn from Robert Kiyosaki, and if you happen to be a new listener, he is the top selling personal finance author of all time the. Rich Dad, Poor Dad, author, and he's been our guest here on the GRE podcast four times. Now, I hope to meet you, the listener, in person on the summit at sea in the Caribbean this June, starting out of Miami. Gosh, what an outstanding time that is. It's not a low cost event, however, the minimum cabin in interior cabin is $5,900 and they are more expensive from there if you get nicer accommodations. But all the details are there on GRE podcast episode 539 two weeks ago. I really hope you'll join us and then I can meet you in person.

Earlier this month, Trump established a US sovereign wealth fund, and when he did, I congratulated our frequent contributor here, macro economist Richard Duncan, because Richard championed the establishment of that fund for years. He presented to Congress about it, and Richard was the first ever GRE guest with us back here in 2014 on the Panama coffee farm investing that we've discussed here on the show, Villanova University reached out to them, and they're now collaborating together. It's something I find kind of cool, as a Pennsylvania native and one of my tightest best friends is also a Villanova alum, as for future episodes coming up on the show. Here, imagine if you had a property loan, yet you didn't have to make any payments, and if you did make payments on your loan, then every penny of that payment goes to principal, not to interest. Wouldn't that be incredible? Well, such a thing does exist, and it's not new or experimental or avant garde. People just don't know about this vehicle. We're going to discuss that right here on next week's show, along with some other vital mortgage topics. There are three ways to connect with our education at GRE you're listening to one of them right now, our flagship podcast. Also check out our get rich education YouTube channel, because that is different content than this show. That's the second way, and that show is also on other video first, platforms like get rich education on rumble, and finally, you'll have it all, all three when you get our weekly Don't quit your Daydream newsletter if you don't already get it free now, while it's on your mind, simply text GRE 266, 86, more. Next. I'm Keith Weinhold. You're listening to get rich education.

Hey, you can get your mortgage loans at the same place where I get mine, at Ridge lending group NMLS 420056, they provided our listeners with more loans than any provider in the entire nation because they specialize in income properties, they help you build a long term plan for growing your real estate empire with leverage. You can start your pre qualification and chat with President Caeli Ridge personally. Start Now while it's on your mind at Ridge lendinggroup.com that's Ridge lendinggroup.com

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Robert Kiyosaki 29:31

this is our rich dad Poor Dad. Author Robert Kiyosaki, listen to get rich education with Keith Weinhold and Don't Quit Your Daydream.

Keith Weinhold 29:50

Welcome back to get rich Education. I'm your host. Keith Weinhold, every once in a while, there's an investing adjacent activity that becomes. Is pronounced or become such a trend that it just can't be ignored, and you need to know about it. I recently presented on how gambling is financially derailing so many people today, especially young men and sports gambling and what makes California and Texas special here, the two most populous states, by the way, you'll see, once they legalize this, it's gonna get worse. There are two states where it's not legal yet now investing in gambling. They are two distinctly different activities. Investing is different from gambling. When you invest, you're purchasing a stake in an asset that has value in an effort to generate profit. But gambling doesn't involve taking ownership of anything of value. Instead, betters are predicting the outcome of an event gambling. It's really not a side hustle. I mean, people are constantly losing their families and businesses over this. This will be all new material here on the show as usual, except for a short snippet that includes super CPA Tom Wheelwright. This is about 10 minutes in length. Shout out to the media team here at GRE on the production side. And then after this, I have more to tell you about real estate.

Speaker 1 31:30

America is in the midst of an historic surge in legalized gambling.

Keith Weinhold 31:37

This is the worst thing that people are now doing with their time and money today, it's not losing it to inflation, it's not playing video games. It's being a slack jawed gambling degenerate. We are in the midst of an historic surge in legalized gambling, and the devastation on gamblers, especially young men is a lot worse than you think. I've also got a giant ominous warning for you that seasoned gamblers don't even know about when I bring in my CPA for just a minute here today on the seriously punishing tax implications that should scare anybody out of gambling.

Hi, I'm Keith Weinhold, get rich education, founder, Forbes real estate council member, best selling, author, and long time real estate investor. Almost 60% of 18 to 24 year olds have placed at least one sports bet now that's per the NCAA, and that has surged so fast. I mean, just less than a decade ago, major pro sports leagues shunned gambling, disassociating with it because it was illegal in most places. The big turning point was 2018 that's when the Supreme Court ended a decades long ban on commercialized sports betting. 38 states and DC have now legalized it most with minimum age requirements set at 21 and the two biggest platforms are DraftKings and fam duel. They've got about 70% of the market. But look, you can do this if you're under 21 on platforms like prize picks and flip they offer betting like experiences. They operate under fantasy sports or sweepstakes, and having these apps on your phone that just brings the gambling right to you. It keeps it in your face and addictive. Now it's like you're sitting in a casino when you're on your living room so far, or in your bed or even in the bathroom, there is no escape. Two thirds of Americans live in a state where they can access it on their phones. And look how young some of these gamblers are, what they have to say. And then who's showing up in these gamblers Anonymous meetings

Speaker 1 33:56

today's world is the 16, 1718, year olds, 1921, year olds that get addicted years ago, before, unlike casinos, if we had a person coming in and they're 24 years old, it was rare. All right, now the norm, the real norm, it's kids coming in at 17 years old. That's the norm.

Keith Weinhold 34:16

Well, one big reason why it's such a problem is, look, you can't hide it, so that therefore others can't tell if you're gambling, because you're not, you know, shooting it into your veins, or you're not acting drunk, or you're not smoking anything. See, you can gamble without exhibiting a physical change, so therefore others don't know that you need help. And it is all over the place. I mean, gambling ads air on TV over 60,000 times a year. Celebrities endorse gambling. I mean, some teams put gambling ads right on the field. Brick and mortar sports books are even built inside some stadiums now, Caesars and bet MGM. There are two other big platforms that you might see out there, but I mean, in their commercials, yeah, they can put that one 800 gambler help number on screen and tell you things like, gamble within your limits. But look, here's the thing these platforms, they're not going to cut you off if you continue to lose and they profit. In fact, if you win disproportionately big time after time, and these platforms can kind of tell that you're too smart. You know what they do, like a casino that identifies a card shark in Vegas, they're either gonna curtail your activity or just totally cut you off, alright? So then, by definition, if you have an account in good standing at FanDuel or DraftKings, and you bet a lot, and they keep letting you play well, then you have just signaled to the entire world that you don't know what you're doing, and you are going to lose big, or you already have. I mean, that is baked into the cake. That's how the system works. So therefore these companies are basically mining America to find anyone stupid enough to keep placing these sports bets. Companies are profiting from this, and then states are too. I mean, they've collected billions in tax revenue and FanDuel and DraftKings, see, they're publicly traded companies, so this means that they have shareholders, and those shareholders, they want to see profit and growth. I recently asked decorated CPA and mega popular tax author Tom Wheelwright about tax rates on gambling for just a quick three minutes here. I mean, you won't believe how punishing This is.

Can you tell us about sports gambling taxes and how it's treated

Tom Wheelwright 36:43

yeah. So remember, all income is taxable. So that includes gambling winnings. They are taxable. In fact, you'll get a 1099 just like you would if you rendered services, you know, you'd get a 1099 right? Or you have interest income, you get 1099 you get 1099 from gambling. What you actually have to show is that you actually have gambling losses. So you have to track those gambling losses to show the IRS that you've got gambling losses. But your gambling losses can never be more than your gambling winnings. In other words, you don't you never get to generate a tax loss on gambling. So that means is, is that if you win $10,000 during the year, and you can prove that you lost $8,000 during the year, you're gonna be taxed on $2,000 but if you can't prove the 8000 you're gonna be taxed on 10,000 Yeah,

Keith Weinhold 37:39

so you the gambler have the burden of tracking this, and I guess tracking your losses. I'm not a gambler. How would one track their losses?

Tom Wheelwright 37:47

Oh, I would keep a detailed ledger. Personally, I'd probably have a separate bank account just for gambling. Gosh, that's the way I would do it. I'm not a gambler either. So by the way, it's also a good way to budget your gambling so they, you know, get in trouble, right? So just set up a separate bank account, put whatever money you say, I'm comfortable with this money, I'm going to gamble with this money, put in that bank account, and then you have a ledger that shows the money that went in and the money you lost, the money you won, and don't do anything but gambling in that bank account.

Keith Weinhold 38:18

Hey, that separate account's a great way to hide it from your spouse, not that I'm suggesting.

Tom Wheelwright 38:25

Well, interesting. You went there.

Keith Weinhold 38:29

I'm not a gambler at all. Can't even believe I was thinking that far ahead. What are the gambling tax rates like? They're ordinary

Tom Wheelwright 38:35

income tax rates. So gambling winnings are just ordinary income they're they're the same as your wages. They don't have social security taxes their income, just like any other kind of income, nothing special, okay?

Keith Weinhold 38:47

And this all applies to whether it's sports gambling or general gambling, like lotteries and sweepstakes.

Tom Wheelwright 38:53

Just remember, all incomes taxable unless the government says it isn't all income, okay? And then there's some types of income that are taxed at special rates, like capital gains, but gambling has no special rate, so it's just your ordinary income rates.

Keith Weinhold 39:09

Gosh, to me, it seems like it's, it's hard to break even with gambling over time, and then when you take the tax adjusted earnings that you get from it, you know, over the long term, you know, I just don't think Harris and Bally's Casino is really incentivized to inform gamblers on how punitive this can be with ordinary income tax rates applied to gambling winnings.

Tom Wheelwright 39:30

No, but they will send you your 1090, 9g I guarantee that.

Keith Weinhold 39:34

So can you imagine tracking all that and then paying all that in tax, and this is even if you're on the winning side and then keeping a separate bank account as well. And note that Tom and I were talking federal. There. It gets even worse. Some state laws are punishing, like New York, which has a 51% tax rate on mobile sports wagering bank. Up 28% since states have legalized this and credit scores have dropped now, California and Texas are the two big states, and they still haven't legalized sports gambling. They're the two big ones, and when they do, that's when you'll see more bankruptcy and more people, especially young men in financial ruin. I mean gamblers, Anonymous meetings are filled with people hooked on betting and on stock options trading too, and you know, Worse still, among addiction disorders, gambling has a comparatively high suicide attempt rate. And you know, understand that, while both involve risk, investing in gambling are two different things. When you invest, you're purchasing a stake in an asset that has value in an effort to generate profit. But gambling doesn't involve taking ownership of anything with value. Instead, betters are predicting the outcome of an event. Now, I gambled as a teen on sports, and back then, it was just a friend and I, we would each lay a $20 bill on top of the television at the start of like a Mets versus Phillies baseball game, and then it sure made the game more interesting to watch. There wasn't any sort of app to make it easy, suck me in and make it a recurrent practice. I haven't gambled since. Now that you're aware of the gravity of the problem, the best thing you can do for yourself is to delete those apps off your phone. Because look, I mean every gambler that had their lies flipped over and turned catastrophic at one time, they told themselves, you know, I'm doing this, but it's under control. I mean, everybody once said that the best thing you can do is delete FanDuel DraftKings and any other apps like that off of your phone right now and vow to never do it again. I hope you like that. You know, it's sort of interesting and introspective to me that I would produce a piece of media like this because I am a sports fan. I watched more of the NFL this past season than I have in a while. You know, I'm in a phase of my life, or I'm a pretty productive person, doing research and interviewing guests and producing GRE media. But you know, I justified watching more sports lately because there's room for an entertainment bucket in everyone's life. That's how I feel. And you know, I don't really watch movies. Most movies I watch feel like a waste of my time when I'm done after two hours, because I'm usually disappointed in it. If I ever watch movies, I gotta watch movies on the plane, because even if it was lousy, I got somewhere in the process. So in any case, now, if gambling is controlled, well, then it might be debatable about whether or not it's a vice, like, say you go to Vegas and have your $250 spending limit or whatever.

But just remember, every gambling degenerate once told themselves and everybody that they know that they've got it under control, but yeah, often they didn't around here, we champion owning real estate directly yourself, that is something that is in your control. So we're not talking about REITs, Real Estate Investment Trusts. That's just a publicly owned company and a group of them. It's not real estate tokenization. That means owning digital fractional shares of a property or a real estate investment. I mean direct whole ownership also means it's not a syndication now that might be worth doing, though, that means that you're pooling other investors money. It's not direct whole investing. If you are investing in someone else's syndication, meaning that you're a limited partner and direct real estate investing, it means not being a flipper or a wholesaler. Again, those things might be worth doing, but they're really time consuming, and they're not tax advantaged either. But when you own rental real estate directly yourself, you don't even need to be a landlord. If you choose not to you, then will not be that point of contact for your tenants when others manage it. And yes, because of the five ways that you're paid, you can make the case that real estate has hegemony over other assets, and for the demographic reasons and the inflationary reasons, like the ones that I told you about earlier today, real estate appears poised to continue as the. Hegemon. In fact, recently, so many global hedge funds have dumped every stock that they have, except for the real estate stocks. I shared that article with you in our newsletter recently. That's largely a tariff response. Let me tell you about real properties on GRE marketplace right now that are ripe for owning directly. I mean direct ownership. That's also the easiest to understand. You are paid rent by a tenant that lives there, often through your property manager, and unlike the out of control sports gambler, this is very much in your control. A brand new build single family rental in Columbiana, Alabama, that's just south of Birmingham. Rent is $1,925 the price is $269,900 over 1600 square feet, four, bed, two bath. Now with the new build, expect low maintenance costs. Is currently vacant, get an interest rate of six and three quarters percent with a 25% down payment on this new build, single family rental in Alabama. Then another sample here. This is interesting. The rent on this old build Davenport Iowa duplex is $1,900 which is about the same rent as the Alabama single family rental I just described. But yet the price for this Davenport duplex is just $183,000 Davenport is part of America's Quad Cities with a combined population of about half a million with both duplex sides. It's a combined square footage of almost 2700 square feet, five, bed, two, bath. They're on Brown Street in Davenport, and now, as favorable as those $1,900 combined duplex rents are, since this property is vintage, in fact, it's over 100 years old, you better check closely on the renovations that were made to the property and have plenty set aside for any maintenance and repairs as well, with a 25% down payment, expect an interest rate of just six and one quarter percent. And there are more financing details there. And of course, rates are always changing. The last one I'll mention is this new build, another duplex, this one in Inverness, Florida. This is really interesting too. And now, what do you think when you think of Florida, real estate? Does climate change come to mind? For some people, it does. For some it doesn't, maybe even rising sea levels over the long term. Well, Inverness, Florida is 15 to 20 miles inland, and it's 50 feet above sea level. How about high insurance rates? Does that come to mind with Florida? Well, they're not so high on new build properties, since they're built to today's stringent hurricane standards. Is Florida temporarily over built, even though the nation, in aggregate is under built? Yes, some Florida markets are overbuilt, and that's how you could potentially snag a deal and get this with 25% down, you can get an interest rate as low as four and three quarter percent, yes, and that's showing with zero buyer paid discount points, the combined rent from both sides of this new build Inverness duplex is estimated at $2,830 of course, often you need to estimate a rent range or make an estimate on the projected rent for new builds, because often they're not occupied yet, since they were just built, sales price of just a touch under 420k on the Inverness duplex, and as just one of the five ways you're paid the cash on cash return is projected at 5% yes, your return goes up into the positive cash flow zone when your mortgage rate is as low as four and three quarters percent. I mean, that is really attractive. It also comes with a year of free property management. So there you go, a new build single family rental in Alabama, an old duplex in Davenport, Iowa, and a new build duplex with just killer incentives in Inverness, Florida, and that's just the sampling of real estate pays five ways type of properties. We either help you get started or continue on your path to financial freedom and help you do that. With our completely free investment coaching, we work with you to help you with these properties or others like them or none at all, if it's not in your best interest to invest now at GRE marketplace.com All you need to do to get started from GRE marketplace.com is click on the coaching area and you can get on the calendar for a free strategy session until next week, I'm your host, Keith Weinhold, don't quit your Daydream.

Speaker 2 50:35

Keith Weinhold 51:03

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Direct download: GREepisode541_.mp3
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Mon, 10 February 2025

Keith shares the top amenities tenants want in rental units, based on a survey by GreyStar with over 90,000 responses. He’s joined by long-time friends of the show, Terry and Liz to discuss investment strategies, emphasizing the importance of buying properties in the "sweet spot" and the benefits of allowing pets, which can lead to longer tenant stays.

They also touch on:

Trade-offs Between Buying Multiple Cheap Properties vs. One Expensive Property
Quality of Properties and Tenant Demographics
Screening Tenants and Handling Pets
New Construction vs. Renovated Properties
Investor Life Cycle and Exit Strategies

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539: Short-Term Rentals, Mid-Term Rentals, and Hotel Investing with Robert Helms

Complete episode transcript:

Automatically Transcribed With Otter.ai

Keith Weinhold 0:01

Welcome to GRE! I'm your host, Keith Weinhold. What are the features that tenants want in their rental units today, and what amenities are most profitable for real estate investors? Bedroom, count, bathroom, count, cover, parking, pet policy and more, what matters what doesn't, and how do you optimize operations to maximize your profit? It's a conversation with me and two terrific real estate pro guests today on get rich education.

Speaker 1 0:31

Since 2014 the powerful get rich education podcast has created more passive income for people than nearly any other show in the world. This show teaches you how to earn strong returns from passive real estate investing in the best markets without losing your time being a flipper or landlord. Show Host Keith Weinhold writes for both Forbes and Rich Dad advisors, who delivers a new show every week since 2014 there's been millions of listener downloads of 188 world nations. He has a list show guests and key top selling personal finance author Robert Kiyosaki, get rich education can be heard on every podcast platform, plus it has its own dedicated Apple and Android listener phone apps build wealth on the go with the get rich education podcast. Sign up now for the get rich education podcast or visit get rich education.com

Corey Coates 1:17

You're listening to the show that has created more financial freedom than nearly any show in the world. This is get rich education.

Keith Weinhold 1:33

Welcome to GRE from Tacoma, Washington to the took pony Palmyra bridge spanning the Delaware out of Philadelphia and across 188 nations worldwide. I'm Keith Weinhold, and this is get rich education, the voice of real estate investing Since 2014 I'm grateful for your faithful listenership. If you're new around here, join in at GRE we do this one big headline show every week, never more, never fewer, and truly, every single week for more than 10 years now, let's talk about amenities that tenants want in apartments today, before we pivot to discussing properties in general and single family homes in our conversation coming shortly. Now, you might have heard of GrayStar before they are international real estate developers and managers, well, they received more than 90,000 survey responses from apartment tenants on their most preferred features and amenities. So we've got a good sample size here, and Gray star compiled the top 20. Let's just hit the top five. This is important, because your tenant is your customer, and when you serve them, you're not only making them happy, you yourself are positioned to be more profitable long term. Here we go. The number one preferred feature is, do you have any guess what tenants want? It's the walk in closet. 51% of apartment tenants said that they are interested in this feature, and 37% would not rent an apartment without it. On average, they're willing to pay a $75 a month premium, and the survey shows that this is particularly important in Dallas and Miami, where over half said that they would not rent without it. The second most important amenity to apartment tenants is large windows with abundant natural light. 56% that they're interested in this feature. 31% would not rent an apartment without it, and on average, they're willing to pay an $80 a month premium for the large windows. When you think about how more tenants work from home today than five years ago? Well, big windows make more sense. Third most important is fresh air ventilation. 69% said that they're interested in it, and on average, they're willing to pay a $79 per month premium. The highest demand for fresh air ventilation is in Seattle, San Francisco and San Jose. We're talking about the top five amenities that apartment tenants want today in order, the fourth most important one is covered parking or a garage. 52% said that they're interested in this feature. Fully a third would not rent an apartment without it, and on average, they're willing to pay a $75 a month premium, and this is most important in urban areas with a covered parking or garage, where 42% will not rent a unit without it, in those urban areas. And then the fifth one is high efficiency appliances, 71% said they're interested in this feature. On average, they're willing to pay a $79 a month premium, and this, this high efficiency appliance thing, is more important for the high income tenant segment. So there they are, the top five features and amenities that. Apartment tenants want today. So to review, in order, it's a walk in closet, big windows, fresh air, ventilation, covered parking or a garage, and finally, high efficiency appliances. And listen in as I'll have a robust discussion with two season real estate pros. We're going to go beyond apartments about the features that tenants and real estate investors alike want today, and at times, they will talk about their home markets of Memphis, Tennessee and Little Rock, Arkansas, which are some of the most investor advantaged markets anywhere. And you'll have to calibrate some of these numbers to your market, because in these places, the typical single family rental purchase is just 100 to 200k and rent is between$900 and 1600 and at other times, we will talk more nationally and globally.

Hey, well, I'd like to welcome in long time friends of the show, with the emphasis on long time since they were first here with us, more than 10 years ago on episode nine in 2014 those ever steady quality property providers from Memphis, Tennessee, mid south homebuyers, it's the return of their principal, Terry Kerr and investor relations lead, Liz Nalen, Terry and Liz, welcome back.

Terry Kerr 6:25

Thank you, Keith. It's great to be here. Thanks so much, Keith, great to be back.

Keith Weinhold 6:28

Yes, it's beginning to feel like a high school class reunion or something. I anticipate my high school class reunions just like I anticipate our discussion today. Let's talk about your individual takes on investment philosophy, common investor mistakes, and is some investor conventional wisdom true, or is it not? Because there's probably some of that that we have to debunk, I think a common one. And I know you get that question in there from investors and our listeners, you had that conversation it was it better to buy two cheap properties or one expensive property talk to us about some of those trade offs.

Liz Nowlin 7:07

It's such an interesting thing, and there's so many factors you can look at. I broke it down for myself personally. Probably 12 years ago, I was asking myself that question as an investor and I ran 2 $50,000 houses, I'm dating myself against $100,000 house, and even when I manipulated the appreciation for the $100,000 house at the higher rate. And actually, we've been talking about investor conventional wisdom, and that is actually a piece of conventional wisdom I've not seen hold true as much, but that a higher end neighborhood is going to appreciate a more rapid pace than a more blue collar neighborhood. So that, as a side note, is a piece of conventional wisdom that I've seen a bit debunked, but it really ramping up the appreciation on the $100,000 house. I think I put it at reselling at like 180 or 190 down the line, and I put my $50,000 houses at maybe 90. You know, not as aggressive for me. Two houses beat one, every kind of way that I shook it out. And of course, the 50,000s had lower individual cash flows, but still, I think matching or higher than the 100. And the one thing I'm not sure that I put in there is two water heaters versus one water heater, two furnaces versus one, but running the same maintenance in general for them. Terry, what do you think

Terry Kerr 8:32

I started out buying houses a little bit lower than I should and what I mean a little bit lower like and a little bit lower quality neighborhoods, and quickly learned that you can't buy too low, you know, you got to buy them, you know, in the sweet spot. So I bought in the A class areas. I bought in the areas that were a little too low, and then found the sweet spot. And then within the sweet spot, I've got a bunch of houses that are in the mid range where we typically operate, and personally, I've also got a bunch of duplexes. I like duplexes. So whether that's duplexes or a little bit upper or a little bit lower, personally, I like a mix of them. And I'm a buy and hold guy. So the stuff that I buy and hold I'm holding for the extra long time, initially, right out of the gate, you've got to look at things like cost segregation, closing costs and all that kind of deal. So really, everyone kind of needs to run their own numbers, because what might make sense for one person just might not make sense for someone else. And again, I'm kind of all over the board. You factor in how much you're going to spend in closing costs, how long do you intend to hold the property? What's it going to cost to sell the property in 1015, 20 years. But again, the cost segregation and just everyone needs to kind of run their own numbers. I think.

Speaker 2 9:47

closing costs times two versus times one is an interesting point. Paying to mow a yard is paying to mow a yard. But then you get into another rub that I think I put them I don't think I did a square footage variation, but I like smaller Homes. It's less on paint. It's less on vacant utilities. The lower your rent is to a degree, the more people can afford to rent it, and the more recession proof you are, in my opinion. And I wasn't running through that as well, but in my antique valuation from 2012 that $100,000 house is going to be bigger often than the littler guys for the rent. Not you know, you can have a play between neighborhood quality and size of house with rents, which is a determining price. But Keith, what do you think two or one?

Keith Weinhold 10:33

Yeah, the two thing versus one thing has a lot of trade offs. As an investor, I think about the advantages of where one is going to have less management, even though I use a property manager, but with respect to the size of the property, I think a lot of us know, and the new investor doesn't know, say, a 1500 square foot unit versus a 3000 square foot rental unit. Well, with the 3000 you often have twice the maintenance, but you only get a little more in rent income. So depending on the market you're in, typically something more like a 1500 square foot rental unit is going to work out better.

Terry Kerr 11:06

Yep, I agree. And then also, another one of the things that I found out is buying houses a little too far up market going to be renting to folks that are more apt to buy a house, right? And so you might have more turnover and a more expensive house just because it's in, you're renting in an area where folks may just not stay as long. And one of the things that that, of course, we like about Memphis is it's predominantly a rental market, so we're able to kind of have the best of both worlds there. But

Liz Nowlin 11:32

kind of, going back to investor conventional wisdom, I think a common mistake, or maybe a mistake isn't the right word, but I hear investors say that they would not buy a house that they would not live in, and I find that they tend to be very expansive times of their life. They often have young children are possibly planning to do it. And one of the best renters I ever had was a little old lady on Social Security, on a fixed income. She lived in my house for seven years. She paid on time like crazy. She added a garden that my home didn't have, and she would have never paid the extra $25 a month that a second bathroom would have called for from that property. And people forget that you'd people downsize as much as they upsize. There's divorce or just retirement, there's empty nesters. Families shift down as much as they shift up. Because investors are often they're talking to me from their four bedroom, two bath house, and they couldn't conceive of renting a smaller thing long term. They just kind of missed that aspect.

Keith Weinhold 12:38

Right for me, it's definitely not a criterion. Would I live in the property myself? And that makes it eligible to hold as a rental? No, it's just the opposite. Really. I don't think any of my rentals are ones that I would prefer to live in, because it wouldn't upgrade my lifestyle. Yet, it's still doing the clean, safe, affordable, functional housing thing. We're talking about the quality of properties here. Class A, properties are deemed the best class, D, the worst. What are your thoughts? Is B class better than C class? And is a really the best of all? I mean, for example, do you get better renters in a class, or are they finicky and then they have the means to move out and go buy their own place, if they have a 790 credit score and they're living in a class a unit, what are your thoughts here?

Terry Kerr 13:22

I think c plus to b minus is the sweet spot. You get into the a plus. Like you said, there's going to be more turnover, because folks are going to be buying houses, and then you've got expensive appliances that you're going to be responsible for fixing in and a lot of A plus neighborhoods, but the C minus, and I can only really truly speak to Memphis and Little Rock, but the C minus the B plus I feel is the sweet spot that's for the size of the property, as well as the typical length of rentership.

Liz Nowlin 13:52

I managed a class for about a decade before I came to work for Terry in 2009 and we ran a great ship, and we had a great, beautiful high rise, but a year was really the average stay a class renters are more litigious. I was operating a building next to a law school, and I had young lawyers and law students, but that's going to be true in any kind of a class area. When you're paying a rent of that amount you are going to call in a work order because the doorknob is slightly loose, a lot of it. And very interestingly, I think we still had some collection issues, even renting to nurses, lawyers, just a small percentage. It's the dark side of property management. But I saw alcoholism, divorce just in a small percentage. But it doesn't wipe it out the way that you would think it would. I've seen college students going to WashU and Ivy League level stuff leave apartments in terrible, terrible conditions. Think that's another kind of investor myth around that

Terry Kerr 14:52

the blue collar folks that we're renting to here in Memphis and Little Rock, they're not going to call us for the loose doorknob. They're just going to pull out the screwdriver. And fix it, just to kind of piggyback on that. It's another one of the benefits of operating in that space

Speaker 2 15:05

lawn care. It's a little thing, but everything adds up, right? Like our renters are going to mow their own lawns and they expect it, and it's how it was at their last place. You're not pulling that off at the high high end

Keith Weinhold 15:16

when you're screening tenants. Do you have the ability to tell when someone is going to look after the place better, and because a lot of the single family home rentals that you do, I mean the tenants, for example, are even responsible for taking care of their lawn, or are they going to be responsible enough to call in a leak, but not so annoying that they're going to call you to adjust the kitchen cabinet door that's a little bit loose. So how can you help screen tenants to learn some of those things before they even move in.

Speaker 2 15:43

Our typical renter is coming to us from another single family home, and so one of the kind of unique ways that we screen tenants is that you have to have immediate landlord history. It's like with a lot of places, if you go rent somewhere for a couple years, you leave in good standing, you come and live with your mom for a year, everybody else in town would accept that positive rental history from a prior place. But one thing that that I love about working here and then what we do is that being in business for 24 years, we've had a lot of chances to kind of do things the wrong way and figure out how to do it right. And they Terry instituted a system in the early years, where any time a renter fell off the rails, they would look back through that file, was there anything? Was there anything that could have predicted that? And sometimes the answer is no, and it's just the first time somebody's hit hard times. But one of the things they found is, well, hey, this guy hadn't paid rent in a year. He did have good rental history, but he hadn't paid rent in a year, and then that bill, he'd gotten used to not paying so much, and so that just helps.

Terry Kerr 16:47

Absolutely

Keith Weinhold 16:48

yes, getting that reference from their current or previous landlord can give you so much on what the expectations are going to be for the tenancy there in their place. And then, of course, there's a whole thing where, if you're talking to the current landlord and they're trying to move out, you're really trying to get to the bottom of the things and just find out if their current landlord wants them to move out because they can't get pay, or they're doing something nefarious. They're not paying rent, or something like that. That's sort of something that one needs to decipher as well. But of course, the history is going to help project the future better than anything else. And one thing we're talking about the operations of properties, and you sort of touched on it. Liz, where you had that tenant that started her own garden, she's someone that wouldn't care to pay more for a second bathroom. So why don't we talk about some of the pros and cons with the bathroom? Are two bathrooms always better than one, or is it just one more place to have maintenance and repair problems?

Speaker 2 17:40

real quick, just back on the other thing, for all the philosophies that you can bring, the guy that I worked for before, Terry never did any landlord verifications, because the worst renter he ever had was personally dropped off at the property by the prior landlord.

Keith Weinhold 17:56

Oh my gosh, making it easy for him. And he said, I'm done

Speaker 2 17:59

so anyway, but the bathrooms is such a hot spot, there's definitely the second bathroom rules crowd. And then I've seen a seasoned investor that says that's just one more toilet to clog.

Terry Kerr 18:14

Yeah, but I would say that right now, I'm pretty sure that the property that I have on Powell is the longest resident I've ever had. She moved in 11 years ago, is still there. It's the smallest house that I own. It's like 794 square feet. It's tiny, and it's got just one bathroom. But she's single, and when she moved in, she said they're gonna have to carry me out of here. And I hope that's not for a long, long time. But like Liz mentioned, there are a lot of folks that just want one bathroom because they're just going to be living in their solo or even married couple. That is downsizing. So we have a mix, and we like to be able to have something, you know, for everyone. So our two bedroom baths perform very well, just like the three twos

Keith Weinhold 18:58

I once owned three rental properties. They were all built the same way. There was one bathroom in each of them, which would have been okay for one or two people to live there, except the only bathroom in these two story places was on the second floor for all three of them, and that did prevent some people from renting it. They didn't like the fact that the only bathroom was upstairs. Yeah, that sounds terrible.

Speaker 2 19:20

Another analogy that's too great, or something I experienced when people think that two bedrooms must be inherently less desirable than three. Kind of connecting to one versus two bathrooms. When I managed that a class high rise, I had a waiting list for my studio apartments. It was the cheapest way that you could live in that neighborhood, period. And I had a three or four month waiting list for the studio apartments. I had a little more trouble renting the one bedrooms and the most trouble renting the penthouse, frankly. And my point with that is that if you price it right, it will always work. You know, if my studios were the same price as my one bedrooms, and of course. Course, I would not have had a waiting list for them. And you know, we have that super unusual lifetime occupancy guarantee mid south it's that, you know, if your property is ever vacant for more than 90 days, we start paying your rent on the 91st day. And I'm often explaining to people that's not us actually being an insurance policy, though it's real, it's in writing, we will pay you if that happens. But what I'm really telling you is that these rents are real. The rent price is meant to perform, and that that's the point. Anything rents well and stays well rented if you price the rent correctly.

Keith Weinhold 20:33

Well, that's an excellent point. We're talking about conventional investor wisdom and the operations of rental properties for investors, with Terry Kerr and Liz Nowlin from mid south homebuyers more than we come back, including is saying yes to pets worth it. This is Get Rich Education. I'm your host. Keith Weinhold

hey, you can get your mortgage loans at the same place where I get mine, at Ridge lending group NMLS, 42056, they provided our listeners with more loans than any provider in the entire nation because they specialize in income properties. They help you build a long term plan for growing your real estate empire with leverage. You can start your pre qualification and chat with President Caeli Ridge personally. Start Now while it's on your mind@ridgelendinggroup.com That's ridgelendinggroup.com

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John Lee Dumas 22:37

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Keith Weinhold 22:56

Welcome back to get rich education. We're talking about efficient operations for real estate investors and the properties that they choose to put into their portfolio, and some of those trade offs with mid south home buyers Terry Kerr and Liz Nowlin. And one thing that seems to be increasingly popular, it sure isn't waning in the past few decades, is the prevalence of pets and tenants that apply and have a pet on there. So there are a lot of pros and cons here. What are your thoughts about pets? Is it worth it or not?

Terry Kerr 23:28

It's worth it as long as you know what pet is going into the property and you charge a pet fee, amen.

Speaker 2 23:36

I'm a dog lover personally. So I was a renter. I was a good renter with a dog, but you do run into the people I experienced this, where they had the one horror story, and they're like, I never want a pet environmental property again at the end of the day. And that's where you go into what type of pet and a non refundable pet deposit. But what you lose by excluding such a huge percentage of the population from retain your home is going to outweigh the risk of the one off bad pet owner.

Terry Kerr 24:11

I agree.

Keith Weinhold 24:12

We also get into questions of what's legal here. If one does say yes to pets, you mentioned a non refundable pet deposit, why don't you talk to us about the amount of that deposit in relation to the rent, and then can you, or do you also charge more rent monthly in addition to the non refundable pet deposit

Terry Kerr 24:33

we charge a $250 non refundable pet fee, and that it tends to cover any issues with the pet but one of The things that I'll kind of piggyback on, what Liz said, is, not only are you excluding a large portion of the market, but we find that folks with pets, they just tend to stay in the property longer. I don't know why that is. I can look at my portfolio. I've not like examined all the houses that were managed. Thing, but I know that from with my portfolio, folks that get into the property with pets. I don't know why, but they just tend to stay longer.

Liz Nowlin 25:07

I may have just had luck, but I have not had any significant pet damages from any of my renters with pets and and kind of more stable, stable folks sometimes. So I think it's worth it. You always understand the person that had the kind of the one bad story, but I really think you could mitigate it.

Keith Weinhold 25:23

How about hiking up the rent amount for pets?

Terry Kerr 25:23

We have not done that. It's not something that we've ever done before. I guess it's kind of a if it ain't broke, don't fix it, you know. But we want to be able to provide as much value as we can to the resident to have the leases renew. And so everything that we do, from a rehab standpoint and a property management standpoint, is geared towards resident renewal. I'm not saying we couldn't get maybe an extra 25 bucks a month, but at some point you cause yourself a longer vacancy because you're trying to find someone who's wanted to pay more because they have a pet or may not renew the lease, because they can find some place to go where the rent is cheaper and they're not being charged pet rent, if you will.

Liz Nowlin 25:25

We charge pet rent at my a class high rise that I managed for a long time. You know, it's not 100% No, it's people complained bitterly about it. I think a pet deposit. Just they stomach it a little bit better. The theme of the show might be, there's a lot of different ways to skin the cat. I got more pushback about that rent charge working directly with the renties than kind of anything else. So I would say we should up the non refundable before we layer it onto the monthly personally

Keith Weinhold 26:37

yeah, if it's paid one time, it seems to be less of an annoyance over time and forgotten. When we talk about pets and think about the long term, after a tenant with a pet moves out, can the place really be adequately cleaned for the next tenant? We know a lot of people are sensitive with allergies today.

Terry Kerr 26:56

Well, fortunately, we bought our own carpet cleaning van. We know what we're doing in regards to, you know, cleaning carpets, and so absolutely you can clean them. I mean, don't get me wrong, there's always going to be like the one off every once in a blue moon, but definitely, you know, we're not throwing the baby out with the bath water there. And fortunately, we're able to mitigate that smells with the right chemicals and our own carpet cleaning van. It's rare that we have that issue.

Keith Weinhold 27:22

Well, the other thing is, is that you're a turnkey real estate investing company, and for listeners that don't know what that means is you basically fix and flip properties at scale and sell them to investors. So what you do in that case, then, is you're using those resilient finishes that can stand up to pets better than if maybe a person were just doing this small scale on their own accord.

Terry Kerr 27:45

That is true. So I can't really speak to what other property management companies experience or other individuals, but I do know that that's what we've done to mitigate the risk, and again, like I said, increase the likelihood of a lease renewal, that's the name of the game, right?

Keith Weinhold 28:02

Saying yes to pets sure does increase your chances. And Terry and Liz, the three of us, have all been active real estate investors ourselves for quite a long time. And when we became real estate investors, new build properties, especially in the turnkey space, really weren't much of a thing, but today they are. There are build to rent communities and more. And you yourself, there have been more involved in new builds, although renovated properties is sort of your bread and butter business, but now that you've done both for a while, what are your thoughts with how you advise investors? Is the premium on new construction worth it? Are you just paying really upfront for the maintenance that you'd have on an existing property? So what are your thoughts with new versus renovated property?

Liz Nowlin 28:46

I love that. So you know, if anybody goes to our website right now and looks at the available properties, you'll see some really gorgeous houses mixed in with our already pretty houses with a new construction label across the front of that exterior photo, and you're going to see beautifully updated kitchens. Our renovated kitchens are also super nice. But I get that question, you are going to pay a little bit more for a new build than a renovated property? And you know, Terry and I talked about it, there's a really cool, detailed 15 year pro forma that you can look at with every property. And we did turn up the appreciation for a new construction house. And of course, nobody has a crystal ball, but I really think that will hold true for our properties only. We actually didn't change the maintenance metrics solely because our renovated houses have all new roof, all new furnace, all new air condenser, all new water heater, and they're just as new on the renovated properties as the new construction for our renovations. We're replacing all the any galvanized plumbing, you know. We're doing so much new I think maybe we could change it by a half of a percent or something, you know, but we actually didn't change it because. Because of the depth of the renovation on our properties. Now I am planning to have my next purchase from mid south homebuyers be a new construction home. There's the premium on the front end for me, my thought, and again, this gets into individual investor strategies, but my son is three years old. I plan to leave my entire portfolio to him, and my simple thought about it is that, you know, I have wonderful performing properties, the oldest of which was built in 1927 actually, and a lot of my renovated. It's a gorgeous one, by the way, a beautiful neighborhood, and it's been a great property for me. A lot of my inventory was built in the 60s and 70s. But when I think about Rhett, my son, baby, selling a house in 30 years. I have a feeling that 2024, build is going to do him very well. What kind of buy and hold investor Are you? Are you a 15 year or you will leave them to your kids? That's an angle to think about for sure.

Keith Weinhold 30:55

Well, actually, that's a great next thing to talk about the investor life cycle in the life cycle of a property that's in your portfolio. Talk to us more about when the right time is to sell an investment property. I mean, should we just buy and hold forever and leave it to our children, or is there an ideal exit time? So from your perspective, why don't you talk to us some more about that timing?

Terry Kerr 31:18

And again, that's just going to be case by case, we've got folks that'll sell a house to put their kids through college. We have had folks to sell their houses when they need to move their parents into assisted living, folks that'll sell their houses when they're looking at retiring. It's typically, life happens and you've got that equity there, and when the time is right to tap it, it's nice to know it's there

Liz Nowlin 31:44

lot of different ways to look at it. I've actually toured with selling my 1927 house in the next year or two, before that magic 100 year mark. Yes, for people, you know, and is that gonna do things? But really it's been a great little performer for me. I talk to investors so frequently, and I've heard more than one seasoned investor tell me they wish they'd never sold a single house they ever sold. Just wish, they wish they could hit a button and own everything they'd ever owned. And I'm a die hard buying holder, but I don't think there's a magic time in the sense of, you know, a question I get, maybe some from sometimes a newer investor is, when will my house need another renovation like the one you just did? And the answer is never right. We're going to cosmetically bring it back up between every renter every time. And so you're really just left working with the individual lifespans of those big components, right? And those are relatively staggered out, with maybe a water heater at the shortest, at a roof at the longest. And I think for the most part, this might vary per market. And Terry, I'd like to know your thoughts, but I think genuinely, you'll probably get a higher price by spending the money to replace versus selling for less having not replaced that item. You know. Say, trying to say, Okay, I'm going to sell in my roof is 29 years old, is probably better just replace it.

Terry Kerr 33:04

Yep, I agree. Because you know, if I'm a buyer and I'm maybe not a flipper, but a buyer, and I'd rather buy a house and spend 100,000 bucks on a house that has a new roof, than buy a house for $94,000 with an old roof. Because I know that old roof, if it leaks, it can cause a lot more damage than just the cost of replacing the roof. So I agree.

And from an ROI perspective, if I'm a financed investor, which about 80% of our investors are, I'm financing that new roof when I buy it with a mortgage, and I'm a great point pay out of pocket the next year. So that's a rub. And then very specific, of course, to our clientele. Terry, how much does it cost us to put a new roof on 1000 square foot house? 4500 bucks. That's we're putting on 700 new roofs a year. The roofers are paid by us by the hour. We are buying the shingles in bulk. And on top of that, we don't mark up maintenance and materials for our investors. So for that one story, 1000 square foot house, that's what my investor cost for us to put a new roof on for them is going to be but a potential buyer is going to look at that home and think it's a $7,000 roof that was great

Keith Weinhold 34:17

to learn about how you renovate properties for investors between tenancies there, so that properties don't get excessively dated. And we've been talking about a lot of the physical things that go into a property with that investor deciding what their exit strategy is going to be. Another thing that informs me are the numbers. When I get to about 40% equity on a property, I know my leverage ratio has now been cut down to two and a half to one, and that's when I look to do something maybe a 1031, tax deferred exchange. Or alternately, if it's a property that I really like, do the cash out refinance, get a tax free windfall with the cash out refinance, and get to hold on to the property at the same time. So of course, that's another way to approach it From the number side, rather than so much the physical side. But there sure is a lot to consider there. And you brought up heirs as well. This has been a great chat about the operations of a property, and just how you advise investors in there. Is there maybe any other question that comes up from investors a lot of times with how they should approach a property and the pros and cons within

Liz Nowlin 35:22

we've seen a lot of great growth, but when we're newer into a neighborhood that we've just kind of started putting our foot in as we stay we meaning mid south home buyers renovating and escalating those properties. That's where we've seen some of the biggest rent jumps and some of the biggest depreciation jumps, but it was kind of one of the lesser, prettier neighborhoods when we first offered that home to that investor, just kind of wrapping your head around all the different nuances to account for

Terry Kerr 35:49

yep, buying the path of progress. And fortunately, we've been able to create some of that progress in the neighborhoods that we've worked in throughout the years.

Keith Weinhold 35:56

If you're not sure where the path of progress is, and you buy on the line. A lot of times, you are the one that is creating that path of progress, and you've got enough bandwidth and volume in there to have actually done that on a number of occasions. How about something actionable? So many of our listeners have become investors there with mid south homebuyers. I imagine it is over 100 by now. So tell us about what you're doing, where you're active, between Memphis and Little Rock, renovated, new build. Really, where's the opportunity for an investor today?

Liz Nowlin 36:31

I'm pretty proud of us. I'll admit we just closed out 2024 having sold 680 houses. Wow. To investors, many of your listeners, and we're very careful. We've always done a little bit more every year. We don't buy everything we could buy. I always say my acquisitions team is not out there thinking about me and my wait list. One of my favorite sayings of Terry's is, you know, pigs get fat, Hogs get slaughtered. And I love the slow, careful way that we do things, but it was still pretty cool to do 680 we're still about, I'd say 75% Memphis, Tennessee, 25% Little Rock.

Terry Kerr 37:09

Yes, that's about, right? I would say also probably about maybe 15% new construction on 85% rehabs, maybe 20% new construction now, yeah

Liz Nowlin 37:20

And our sweet spot is still, well, still, it's that 100,000 to 200,000 that that window has slowly moved up through the years, very much to the benefit of investors as their investment seasons with time. I think we were 46,000 to 86,000 when I started in 2009 so been awesome to see the growth Memphis and Little Rock has had and so yeah, we're still kind of cash flow first appreciation is the icing on the cupcake. There are cupcakes have had more icing than we ever anticipated. If you go to midsouthhomebuyers.com and click on those available properties, they are under contract to investors at the top of the wait list, but they are identical to the houses I will have for anyone that is listening. We're so formulaic, 365 days a year, the cheapest house I may ever have is on that website. The same for the most expensive. We have just kind of figured out what works, and we hit it hard. And you can see the running theme with the kitchens and everything else.

Keith Weinhold 38:22

Well, congratulations on the total volume that you did last year. That's almost two homes a day, including weekends and holidays and everything else. That's really terrific. Yes, I, for the listeners here, have often, over the years, made these examples using a 100k property, but inflation and appreciation has also made it such that I can't do that anymore, maybe, just maybe in Memphis and Little Rock, I still can for a decent rehabbed property in a pride of ownership neighborhood for as little as 100k and that's one reason why so many investors have made mid south home buyers the place that they go for their First ever Income Property across state lines. They really know how to serve that audience, and you've been doing that for our audience for more than a decade now, and you continue to have this really robust interaction with investors. Liz, you do a lot of phone calls with people. You're really proud about what you do there. So proud that you offer field trips,

Speaker 2 39:19

please. I hope folks come so many folks never do so. If for anyone that prefers to do it from your living room, you are in the 95% norm if you never come to town. But man, it pushes folks confidence through the roof. So many of my investors are from high cost of living areas where you cannot get a parking spot in a war zone for the price that we are selling fully renovated houses, we have a deposit taken for a renter from every house I ever offer that really is cash flow from day one, and folks will really see the neighborhoods and that. I can't stress that enough. In fact, one thing that happens so if folks come up, you can sign up for the tours right on the website. It's on the far right, says, come visit us. This, you'll see a drop down with all the dates we do, monthly tours in Memphis and quarterly tours in Little Rock the day before. So you can come out and hit both. You kind of do a Thursday, Friday tour. You'll tour facilities. You'll see the warehouse and all that kind of stuff that I'll find. You know, our vans, we pull it, throw everybody in vans. We're listening to Memphis music and talking the whole tour, and people will want to pour out of that van right into the house. And I actually back everybody back out. I back them back into the front yard. I want to talk to you there and say, look left, look right. This is $120,000 neighborhood. Y'all. I can send you photos of the inside of the house all day, and you're going to get the same great house whether you buy from your living room. But I love it when people get to see that. I'll go ahead and say we do give gift cards to the best barbecue in town at the end of the tour, in addition to a $500 closing cost credit, just as a thank you for coming out and yeah, I love the tours.

Keith Weinhold 40:53

I really appreciate the two of you. Here we are, the three of us, more than a decade after we started talking about the properties and what you offer investors here, and it's just rare to have continuity like that. You can learn more at midsouthhomebuyers.com Terry and Liz, it's been valuable as always.

Terry Kerr 41:13

Thanks so much, Keith. Always enjoy it

Keith Weinhold 41:15

when we talked about pets, did Liz say something about skinning the cat? That would have to be one of the worst pet policies that I have ever heard of. And yeah, I think that long term, you know, the three bed, two bath style that has been so popular in rentals. But today, there are fewer occupants per household than there was 10 years ago and 20 years ago. Okay, that has long been a national trend. So in a lot of instances, two bedrooms can be better than three and one bathroom can be better than two, especially in that case of a sole occupant. And do you know where your best feedback is gonna come from? From what would most improve your unit's appeal to the market? It is not an online resource at all. It is from a showing where your tenant prospect did not want your unit. They know they are in the market. In fact, they are more aware and in tune with the market than you are, because they might have looked at, say, five units in just the last two days, and they might have done that in person. So they will tell you why they did not want the unit, whether the rents too high, or they don't like the parking situation, or your place needs to be closer to the train station, or your only bathroom is upstairs, something that reduced appeal for some of my own properties in the past. But yeah, this, I'll call it an exit interview of your prospective tenant. I mean, that is valuable, or you can have your manager do it well, the one place that really knows what tenants and investors want is with Terry and Liz there. That's why they have been in business since 2002 with 1000s of investors like you. And it's also why when there is an investor wait list for their properties, and you get to the top of the wait list and close on your property, so many investors just get right back in line on the bottom of their list and work the way up again for their next property. They get lots of repeat business. You can do this too. Get started at midsouthhomebuyers.com Until next week, I'm your host. Keith Weinhold, don't quit your Daydream.

Speaker 3 43:49

Keith Weinhold 44:17

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Mon, 3 February 2025

Professional real estate investor, author and host of “The Real Estate Guys” Radio Show, Robert Helms joins us to discuss the nuances of mid-term, short-term rentals, and hotel real estate investing.

They highlight the impact of interest rates on single-family home affordability and the role of institutional investors.

Mid-term rentals cater to travelers like traveling nurses and digital nomads, offering higher monthly rents. Short-term rentals face challenges due to oversupply, but can be profitable with strategic planning. Hotels offer consistent experiences, with key metrics like occupancy and ADR.

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538: How to Begin in Real Estate, The Insane Canadian Housing Crisis

Complete episode transcript:

Automatically Transcribed With Otter.ai

Keith Weinhold 0:01

welcome to GRE I'm your host, Keith Weinhold, surprising facts about the institutional ownership share of the rental market. Then learn from a great guest tonight about how the midterm and short term rental models work and hotel real estate investing. Then you are invited to join us both on the most special real estate event that I've ever been a part of, and I'm going to return to it today on get rich education.

Since 2014 the powerful get rich education podcast has created more passive income for people than nearly any other show in the world. This show teaches you how to earn strong returns from passive real estate investing in the best markets without losing your time being the flipper or landlord. Show Host Keith Weinhold writes for both Forbes and Rich Dad advisors, and delivers a new show every week since 2014 there's been millions of listener downloads of 188 world nations. He has a list show guests include top selling personal finance author Robert Kiyosaki. Get rich education can be heard on every podcast platform, plus it has its own dedicated Apple and Android listener phone apps build wealth on the go with the get rich education podcast. Sign up now for the get rich education podcast or visit get rich education.com

Corey Coates 1:17

You're listening to the show that has created more financial freedom than nearly any show in the world. This is get rich education.

Keith Weinhold 1:33

Welcome to GRE from London, UK to London, Ontario and across 188 nations worldwide. I'm Keith weinholden, you are inside this week's episode of Get rich education, where we aren't day trading, we are decade trading with gradual patient wealth accumulation through income properties, yet with a path that lets you live the good life of options and freedom when you're still young enough to enjoy it. Now, the shorter the period of time that your guest or your tenant stays at your place, the more that the word hospitality gets involved. Hospitality, that word has little to do with hospitals. It almost means the opposite. Hospitality means that you're now giving a warm reception to or entertaining guests or tenants. Well, that's something that you rarely do at a long term rental, but you do if you're a hotel real estate investor for sure, or maybe even a little in a short term rental, then you're in hospitality like valet parking, having a restaurant, a pool with a swim up bar, a gym, a concierge desk, or even having a lobby with travel desks of various tour companies. Right there. That's hospitality, and today as we discuss mid term rentals, then short term rentals, then hotel real estate investing, think about how the level of hospitality that you give increases as the duration of a guest or tenant stay decreases. Hospitality is one reason that long term rental rates for durations of, say, a year or more, well, they had the lowest daily rates and the least hospitality. And hotels with, say, a two night stay, have the highest daily rates and the most hospitality.

This week's show is presented by ridge lending group and freedom family investments. I mean Ridge is where I get all of my investment property loans, and where I do all of my refinancings. And perhaps you should, too, because they specialize in working with investor borrowers there, so they know just what you need and what you don't Ridge lending group.com, and then freedom family investments, that's where you can make a private money loan and get a higher yield than you can with a high yield savings account. That's where I invest a share of my own liquid funds for a passive 8% return, 10% return. And now this is new. They've got offerings at 12% or more. You can learn more by texting family to 66866, next, we discuss mid term rentals, short term rentals and hotel real estate investing.

This week, I'd like to welcome in a good long time real estate friend. He's been on the show here with you and I before. Besides being a deeply experienced real estate investor, he also hosts the terrific real estate guys radio show, which was a substantial influence on the launch of GRE more than 10 years ago. I mean, how many times have I suggested to you over the years that you give his show a listen? He also speaks with some of the best pipes in the industry. Hey, it's great to have back on the show this week, the incomparable Robert Helms.

Robert Helms 5:07

Hey, Keith, so good to see you. Thanks for having me back.

Keith Weinhold 5:11

Let me share with you. Robert is on a very short exclusive list of people that I credit for being where I am today, from how to host a professional show to being a Go Giver and Robert before we discuss mid and short term rentals in the long term rental world generally, just what's important to know in today's residential real estate market, you can take that anywhere you like.

Robert Helms 5:38

Well, I think the big picture has been all about the loans and the interest rates, right? We saw rates go up, not only a lot, but quickly, and then kind of come back down a bit. Now they're headed back up, and that just has a big effect on single family homes, primarily to folks who are living in the homes, because they'll make that decision based on the affordability of their mortgage payment and the rest of the costs investors Well, you know, we think a little differently. We're not limited by a specific interest rate will pay? If I can make 9% would I pay 6% sure, if I can make 9% would I pay 7% well, I might, and so on. So I think that that's something to watch this year. For sure. There's lots of reasons to expect that we're not going to see interest rates get back down into the twos and threes and fours like we wish they would stay. Probably shouldn't happen in the first place, but you and I took advantage of it, and lots of your listeners did as well. But I think that's kind of a big picture thing. And then the other part of it is, you know, the inventory. So when people have this locked in effect, which really doesn't have anything to do with their needs or wants, they have a new job or they have another child and they want to move to a couple of notches up in a neighborhood, they don't want to get rid of their 3.12% loan and have to buy another property with 7% so we see less people moving, therefore less inventory, total inventory now somewhere just around 700,000 or below, and that's lower than it's been for the average of the last 10 years. For sure, I think that has an effect, less people are moving because of the interest rates. But at the same time, you know, there are houses that trade every single day. People do have to move. They have life situations and so forth. And then real estate investors, of course, we just look for opportunity. If we can make a spread and we can be in a property long term where the tenant pays down our mortgage and not us, well, then we're interested at almost any interest rate.

Keith Weinhold 7:44

Yes, that interest rate lock in effect will persist another year. That continues to get diluted over time. Of course, though you and I both know that mortgage rates are still below their historic rate, but because of the recency bias, no one's really acting that way. By the way, the first ever rental property I bought had a six in three eights percent mortgage rate 20 years ago, and people were raving about what an incredibly low rate that was back then. But this constrains supply. And another thing that constrains available supply in today's market is more institutional players own rental property today we're talking about outfits like invitation homes and even the California State Teachers Retirement System. But one thing a lot of people don't seem to realize is that institutions like this own less than 1% of single family homes in the United States, and that's all institutions combined. And now if you just isolate that to single family rental properties, they still only own two to 3% so where we have this period of low supply and low affordability, you know, Robert, I think institutions, in a lot of these media headlines, they tend to get scapegoated or being a boogeyman. Oh, all these big players are buying up the homes, and that's why you can't buy one. But really, that's pretty overblown. So can you talk to us more about what the institutional entry into the real estate investing space has been like, which really picked up steam after the GFC about 15 years ago?

Robert Helms 9:16

Yeah, it sure did. I think that folks who were managing big sums of money, and the institutional money comes from all kinds of places, real estate, Investment Trusts, insurance, pensions, funds, and then just big old companies that decide to raise money to go do something, and that money saw opportunity said, hey, you know what? This is a short term anomaly, all these prices that went down after 2008 and 2009 and when a lot of mom and pop investors were very hesitant to touch the third rail of buying more property after what they had just been through, these institutions are like that. Institutional money is not very emotional, right? It's just looking at the numbers at the same time where the nuances of institutional funds is that they also didn't have a ton of real estate experience, and so it was quite common for a couple of years that an institution would come in, and they would typically work through local brokers, and those brokers would know the market a bit. But if you could generalize, you would say that a lot of institutions overpaid. But here's the thing, when you overpay in the moment, you don't really notice that in the long term real estate investment that these guys did, it's interesting. I've been to a couple of conferences I go to almost every year that 10 years ago was mom and pop investors. And today it's a lot of suits, not too many ties. They don't send. Tend to wear ties, but a lot of suits, a lot of folks working for various levels of these funds, and they're looking at real estate as an asset class. Now I'm going to argue their real estate's not an asset class like any other, because every share of stock, every ounce of gold, every barrel of oil that anybody buys, is discretionary. You never have to invest in the stock market, in the bond market and cryptocurrency, but you cannot sit out the real estate market. From an economic perspective, I don't have to own real estate, but I'm going to have to interact financially. And so it really doesn't operate like other quote, unquote, asset classes, but I think the big folks did figure out is that there is stability in real estate. There's not the efficiency they would like, and that's a good thing for us. We like inefficiencies in the real estate market, but more and more we are seeing funds being put together, even today, to acquire property. But to your point, and it's an excellent one, you see the headlines and you see the name calling of these big, faceless, nameless corporations. They're buying up all the inventory. They're not it is a drop in the bucket compared to what mom and pops own and will continue to own

Keith Weinhold 11:53

yes, and of course, I'm talking nationally. When I bring up those one two and 3% institutional share numbers, it's going to be lower in some areas, it tends to be a higher proportion of buying that the institutions do in Texas and also in a lot of southeastern markets, like Atlanta, Jacksonville, Charlotte and Tampa. Robert you have a good bit of knowledge and some involvement in the mid term rental market. We're talking about rentals of one to six months in duration. Here, can you talk to us about trends in the midterm rental market?

Robert Helms 12:25

Yeah, it's a fascinating area. You know, back in the day, these would be referred to as corporate rentals, so a corporation might lease an apartment and furnish it, and then they would have different people stay there over the years, so the corporation would be responsible for the lease. I had some tenants like this many, many years ago, and it wouldn't be up to me. It'd be up to them who had the keys at the time. And a tenant might stay six or seven months. A tenant might make four or five weeks their stay. And so the idea was they needed a place for these contractors who would come in and work for a period of time to stay. But hotels were a lot more expensive. Well today you see even the folks who got involved in short term rentals making a decision to invest in people like traveling nurses who come and stay for four to six weeks, or these clients who will come in and work for two months in this location, two months in this location, two months in another location. And so they will simply stay in a short term rental type of property for a longer term. And you know, the most expensive things when it comes to real estate or turnover in vacancy. So if we can get the tenant to stay longer and pay a bit of a premium, these are often furnished units, and they don't have to worry about much. And we've had a few opportunities where what started out as a three week rental turned into a six month rental, because sometimes when they bring these folks on these companies, don't know exactly how long they're going to stay, and it's been a great kind of marketplace. There's a few folks that specialize in it. But my experience is that a lot of the people that have gravitated towards midterm rentals used to be in the short term rental business, thinking they'd rent for one or two nights, and lo and behold, they get a client that would stay for a month, and they'd say, Hey, this is pretty cool.

Keith Weinhold 14:13

Some conversion rate there from short term rentals to these midterm rentals here, as Robert touched on, you do tend to get more monthly rent for a midterm rental than you do a conventional long term rental. You're going to have some experience for furnishing there. But Robert, you bring up a great point. You mentioned traveling nurses. And of course, here as real estate investors, we're often interested in who we're serving and what that demographic looks like. I also think of midterm rental clients or tenants as students in digital nomads, and oftentimes it's a person relocating where they just want to check out a place for a few months before they consider setting down roots in an area with a long term rental or buying their own place. So can you talk? More about the demographic that we're serving there, because oftentimes you want to follow their trends.

Robert Helms 15:04

Yeah, very much. So, you know, today, I think there's a lot of folks that can work from a variety of locations. They do need some things, they need quiet they need a good internet connection, but they will come and go for weeks at a time. And I also think that you see more and more employers looking to contract labor. They have a job to get done. They're not sure they want to bring on a full time employee with all the cost of benefits and onboarding and all that. So they find somebody in the niche that comes in for six or eight or 12 weeks at a time, and they're the perfect candidate for short term rental. But we also see folks that are between gigs. So I might have a six week gig, and three weeks later I have another six week gig, and the three weeks in the middle, I want to go somewhere that's kind of fun to hang out. And so you do see those kind of rentals as well.

Keith Weinhold 15:55

Are most long term property management companies open to managing midterm rentals?

Robert Helms 16:02

Yeah, good question. There are certainly those that are, but I think we're starting to see a specialty on the aggregator side, folks that are reaching out specifically to the kinds of people who are candidates for midterm rentals from the tenant side and looking to accumulate inventory. So that's been kind of a neat thing to watch. So the focus of most property managers, they're hired by the owner of the property. Well, these groups are really their their salary gets paid for by the tenant, and they're able to negotiate on the behalf of some of these groups, you know, a better rate, better terms. They may negotiate some flexibility and the time for these folks that don't know exactly how long they're going to stay, it's an interesting new area of management, for sure.

Keith Weinhold 16:52

Now, of course, we're concerned about a high occupancy rate in midterm rentals, just like we are any type of rental. What does one look for when it comes to advertising platforms. And this could be, you know, going beyond just a well known website. It might be, hey, if you have inroads with the local hospital system, oh, well, can you then funnel some of the traveling nurses, for example, into your midterm rental?

Robert Helms 17:15

Yeah, most definitely, it is a specialty niche, for sure, if you're after a robust rental solution. You know, many people in midterm rentals, like in short term rentals, the vast majority of short term rental owners are not making a killing. They are. They're liquidating some cost of what they consider their second home. So the average short term rental landlord has just one property, and that's a property they bought, probably not as a rental. They brought it as a second home, and they're discovering that when they're not there, they can lease it out, and that pays for some of the costs. But there are obviously a few folks who have cracked the code and figured out which markets and where the best opportunity is, and what size units it takes to maintain a really healthy occupancy, and it's the same for this midterm rental. It's a different kind of tenant. It's mostly not families, so it's not larger units with lots of bedrooms. It's also mostly not your higher end rentals with views of the water or up near ski resorts, it's in the bigger towns where there is employment, and that employment triggers most of the midterm rental business.

Keith Weinhold 18:29

You, as an investor owner, maybe your cash flow negative on your midterm rental or short term rental, however, you might be using it for a few weeks or months yourself and getting back more of the benefit that way you're listening to get rich education. We're talking with the host of the real estate guys radio show, Robert Helms, more when we come back, we discuss short term rentals, including, is there an air be in bust? I'm your host. Keith Weinhold,

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Kristen Tate 20:39

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Keith Weinhold 20:54

Welcome back to get rich education. We're talking about midterm short term rentals and hotels and hospitality with a long time friend of the show here, Robert Helms and Robert a few years ago, there seemed to be this word airbn bust that was beginning to be associated with Airbnbs. A lot of the difficulty in that market. So tell us, what was that all about, and where are we now with industry trends in the short term rental market?

Speaker 1 21:21

Yeah, great question, Keith. What I think happened is the allure of a short term rental, having a beautiful property that people would pay a premium on a nightly rate, sounded wonderful, and it was, and it worked for a lot of folks. But then what happened is, what happens people got the word, they got excited about it, and a lot of people started holding webinars, teaching classes, doing boot camps, and before you knew it, there was way more supply than there was demand. See, the hospitality industry is amazing. The hospitality industry employs 9% of all people in the world and accounts for nearly 9% of the GDP of our planet. Travel is a gigantic industry, and it's led by smart, big, storied institutions. So for folks to come and figure I'll just compete with them with my little apartment didn't necessarily turn out so well. So there was an airbn bust, and it is still lingering today. If you want to make a profit in short term rentals, you absolutely can, but you need to be super strategic. You need to think long and hard about where and what and why and how, because it's very specific. There are certain markets that short term rentals do very, very well, and there's a lot of markets, the majority of markets, where they don't. So as long as you're willing to study and take a look and be realistic and go kick the dirt a little bit, you certainly can get the upper hand. And the reason it's exciting is the average person who owns a short term rental is not professional in any way. They probably don't have too many other rental properties. It's not a big part of what they're paying attention to in their life. And they're simply trying to liquidate some of the costs of ownership. You know, I might rental here or rental there. And the way you can tell Home Away, VRBO, Airbnb, most of the hosts, the owners, make their calendars public, and so it's easy to tell how busy they are. It's amazing to me. I'll look at a marketplace and look at a property and see that month after month after month they're at a six to 8% occupancy, which I wouldn't be excited about myself, but for someone who's got a second home and they don't mind having people stay there for a few nights, they'll pay a premium for that. They legitimately can carve down a lot of their expenses just by renting six or eight or 10% of the time.

Keith Weinhold 23:58

Of course, the conventional guidance is before you buy a short term rental, you're really helping yourself out. If you have to fall back on turning that into a long term rental, it would cash flow. But of course, now you're really narrowing your criteria in what is going to work there. And Robert, when we talk about that demographic that we're serving, we touched on that in the midterm rentals. Who are we serving in short term rentals? I think conventionally, we think about vacationers and business travelers

Robert Helms 24:24

it's both of those things. I think that originally, people were certainly inspired by the vacation traveler who wanted to have a little more privacy, maybe their own kitchen, maybe a little more space for the dollar. And we still see that for a family, especially a family with small kids, staying at a hotel, ordering room service, eating in the restaurant, all that adds up. And if instead you can go to the grocery store and make breakfast at home, right, you can save the costs. And so there is definitely that clientele, but you also have people in short term rental that are visiting family. They're not really on vacation. In there, just going to an area for a short period of time. We see people that criss cross the country staying in short term rentals, two nights here, three nights there. And so it does have kind of a wide variety. A lot of the markets are very seasonal. Though. There are markets like Branson, Missouri that does really good at some parts of the year and not as well as other parts of the year. Then, of course, there's year round markets. So back to if I'm thinking about it with an investor's hat on, I want to be a little more specific, in particular about what and where I buy. But if I have single family house as my second home, maybe it's in a ski area, maybe it's in a beach area, and it's fairly expensive to maintain. Well, then considering renting it out on a short term basis might help the overall cost of maintaining that property.

Keith Weinhold 25:52

You know, my own personal experiences really started to get bad in short term rentals, when I would go stay in a place. And I think we've all seen those memes out there about, my gosh, I had to wash all the dishes and walk the owner's dog and still play some exorbitant cleaning fee. I think we've all kind of grappled with that at some point, but STRS are still a really viable investment for the majority of the operators. But yeah, Robert, most of my experiences in short term rentals recently, including showing up at a place where they had not done the turn. The cleaning person did not stop by. And, yeah, okay, they came over there properly. But it's like, you cannot unsee the mess that was left there before you were there. So I had a series of experiences lately that have actually steered me into staying in hotels more often. And hotels really fit my lifestyle pretty well. I like to work out at a gym. I like to have a gym on site. It's convenient to have a restaurant on site and so on. And you've been in the hospitality and hotel space serving that for a while. Why don't you talk to us about industry trends in hotels.

Robert Helms 27:03

Yeah. So travelers, to a great degree, love consistency. They want to be able to rely on cleanliness, on amenities, the very things you mentioned for sure. And so hospitality has a wide range, right? There's the lower end airport hotel where nobody stays more than a night, and it doesn't have a lot of amenities, and then there's the beautiful resort properties and everything in between. But what the hotel industry has done a good job of is providing a consistent experience, and that's what people crave more than anything else. You know, we would call a short term rental more of a unique or boutique or co chair kind of experience, and you don't know what you're going to get. You don't have that consistency. Some folks don't mind that, but for the majority, especially of business travelers, they want to know what they're getting. I can remember years ago, my sister wanted to take us on a family vacation to Maui. It sounded like a good idea. And then she was the one tasked with finding us a place, and decided we would stay at the Ritz Carlton and I looked at the Ritz Carlton website and said, Ah, you know, this is not exactly where I would probably stay in a she's a chiropractor. She says, in order for me to take a week off work, I'm losing $10,000 of the business. I'm not staying in some cheap hotel. I want to stay in a luxury hotel. And we did it, and it was fabulous, and I would stay again. So the point is, if you want to be able to work out, if you want to be able to have 24 hour room service, if you want grab and go that you don't have to walk outside in the cold or the heat, then hotels make a lot of sense, and it's not an either or. They're just both elements in hospitality. I would consider a short term rental property, a hospitality property, and I would consider a 1200 room, four and a half star hotel hospitality property as well.

Keith Weinhold 28:58

Sure. Of course, hotels aren't monolithic. There are so many different types. You might have a boutique hotel with a few dozen rooms to a large scale, something like you've been involved in. You've been in a large scale, ground up development for a hotel. And I don't know if you had a hope when you built your large hotel that a big chain like a Hilton or Marriott would buy it from you, or would brand it along with you. But that branding and that consistency of experience can be really important. That's something we especially associate with those larger hotels. So we have some of these things in mind. I mean, where does a new prospective hotel investor begin?

Robert Helms 29:40

Yeah, it's pretty difficult to get started, because the properties are big and expensive and risky upfront. So there's a terminology we use the hotel business, which is stabilization. And stabilization is when a hotel gets to the point where it's doing about the occupancy and rate that you would expect. Respect it too long term, and that might be anywhere from two to four years. Well, in the first year, boy, there's hardly anybody there. We have a 300 plus room hotel, and the first night we were open, we had two guests and 160 employees. So you don't have to be a rocket surgeon to figure out that that math doesn't work very well. Nor did it for the first month or the first year. Today, I'm happy to say it works a lot better, but you have to have patience. Now, there's a couple of ways you can get involved. Certainly, a smaller a boutique hotel. I stayed in a hotel a couple months ago that only had eight rooms. It was marvelous. And I thought, boy, you know, probably an individual owns this, but most of the hotel properties are owned by groups or syndications, and so that's another way to get exposure to hospitality. There's some things to love about hospitality, and to me, one of the same things I love about single families is you can find professional management, like folks that really know what they're doing, and create that guest experience that was perfectly possible for someone to buy a single family home as a rental. Maybe it's in their own town, and they want to manage it themselves. And you know, maybe at first that's a good idea, so you can figure out the game you've chosen, but ultimately, you want to hand that off to a professional, in my opinion. And in hospitality, like in multifamily, you have to, you have to have somebody come in with chops to be able to take care of it. And then there's the nuance of franchise which there are hotels that are just independently owned and operated. And then there's franchise hotels. And just like buying a franchise business, you pay a little more, but you get a lot. You get all the systems and the service and the training and the marks, and many cases, you get a big, dynamic engine that brings leads and fills your heads in your beds, which is what the metric we're interested in, in hospitality. And so when we started with thinking about it might make sense, the market we were in had no branded hotels, and we thought, Well, should we be the first? And after doing a bunch of research, I came to the conclusion that, well, it's going to cost something, and there's going to be a benefit, but I don't see it the benefit outweighing the cost. And we decided not to and then, lo and behold, through a strange set of circumstances, today, we are a branded hotel, and I'm thrilled about it. In hindsight, it was the right thing to do, but do understand that most real estate investors that I know are not going to qualify. It's pretty difficult to get a franchisee agreement with one of these hotel brands. You have to have some wherewithal, some experience. They're going to look at your assets and your balance sheet. They're going to look at more than you can imagine to make sure that you're worth betting on, that they'll put their story name on the outside of your hotel. But it does bring up another point in hospitality, which is there's just multiple streams of income in hospitality. I saw a study last year that showed that in the upper resort markets, the fancier hotels and markets you might go to that the average person whatever they spend on their nightly rate in the hotel, they spend 80 to 85% of that per day on all the other things associated with their stay. Now, some of those are going to be off campus, but the more that you can provide to the guests you've already brought onto the property, the more profitable it can be,

Keith Weinhold 33:25

from resort fees to valets and more. Yes, there certainly is plenty to add on there. Maybe the last thing in hotel investing is, if someone wants to get started, what should they even be looking at, as far as say, understanding some of the metrics, like rev Park. Can you give us a quick walk around that?

Robert Helms 33:45

Yeah, so if you're used to investing in apartment buildings or single family houses, you've probably seen the basic income formula. You know how to calculate for loss to lease and maybe vacancy and those things. Well, there's just a few more intricacies when it comes to hospitality, but it's not that difficult if you just think that you're renting every night instead of every month or every year, and instead of having my turnover be one tenant every two years, it's one tenant every four days. There's just a lot more to pay attention to. And so the most important metrics in the hospitality industry are obviously occupancy, how many nights our rooms are occupied? And then ADR, which is average daily rate, and that is the rate for a particular unit type on average over some period of time, typically a year. And if you were to multiply occupancy times average daily rate, that gives you a revenue per available room or RevPAR. RevPAR can be affected, and it's the primary metric that we drive to in the two ways, you can increase occupancy to increase your RevPAR, but in many cases, you don't need to increase occupancy if. The market will allow you to raise your average daily rent. We've just gone through in the last year that our occupancy is down about 2% for the year, and our average daily rate is up more than 16% so the math works that follow me on this with slightly less wear and tear on the units our owners are making more money. So it is a balance. It's not like I want maximum occupancy. Well, not necessarily. Hardest thing to manage for any hotel is a sold out night. Sounds like a good idea, but you have no wiggle room, whereas when you've got even 3% vacancy and something goes wrong in the middle of the night with somebody's unit, you can get them moved somewhere down the hall, not somewhere across town. So I would say there are some really great resources. If someone's interested in hospitality. There's a big company called the hotel valuation systems, HVs, and they have a lot of great tutorial information available if you're really interested. Go to a conference, a hotel conference, and you'll pick up the lingo pretty quick and meet some of the folks that are in the business. It is, historically, one of the highest return properties, but also a lot of high costs, and again, expect some negative cash flow at the beginning.

Keith Weinhold 36:18

Yeah. Well, it was great. And you brought up something that I had not thought about before, about how 100% occupancy could actually introduce problems in the hotel space. And of course, there are a number of other things to consider, surge pricing, high seasons, low seasons, an awful lot that we don't think about when we're renting out single family homes one year at a time. Well, Robert, that's been a great walk around talking about the institutional space, midterm rentals, short term rentals and hotels, and you and I have a great collaboration coming up together. Why don't you tell our audience about it?

Robert Helms 36:55

Oh my gosh. I am so thrilled that you'll be joining us again for our 23rd annual Investor Summit at sea. This event we do once a year, and by its name, you can probably tell that the majority of it happens on a cruise ship. We spend two days in beautiful Miami at a great hotel, then we jump on a luxury cruise ship for seven days. On the days that we're at sea, it's workshops and seminars and panel discussions and round table lunch discussions and all kinds of fun. And on the sea day, on the land days, we go have a good time together. It's extraordinary. You've been with us before, and I'm super excited to have you back with us on faculty, and excited that we're going to get to brainstorm a little bit with a couple other podcasters. So some of the OGS are going to be on this particular summit.

Keith Weinhold 37:43

Yes, it is June 20 to 29th this year, where we spend the first two days on land in Miami, and then we spend a week cruising to the Bahamas, St Thomas in St Martin. We're doing it on a beautiful ship, the celebrity beyond. So as one of the faculty members, you'll get to see me do a 50 to 60 minute presentation, a couple of lunch, round table discussions. I might be on a panel or two, and also host a table for dinner each night where participants like you rotate around at the tables, and that way you get to chat directly with most or all of the faculty members. That way. Yes, Robert, I was there in 2016 as an attendee. It's great to finally come back as a faculty member. I will be putting the second pepper on the necklace.

Robert Helms 38:29

All right. Well, it's gonna be a ton of fun. And the great thing about it is we have people from all over the world that come and you get in these awesome conversations. You know, you go to a one day or two days seminar, and you get to connect with some people, but boy, and this week, you're going to have a chance to meet all kinds of folks. And the faculty is amazing. Our mutual friend Ken McElroy will be back with us for his 12th year. Peter Schiff's going to be back with us again. We've got the George gammon coming. Brian London, who runs the New Orleans investment conference that you and I usually rub shoulders at, and ton more, just a really great time. And if you're serious about collapsing time frames, you can get more done in nine days on the Investor Summit that you can probably get of two years of just haphazardly going to conferences and watching webinars and listening to podcasts

Keith Weinhold 39:18

you will see what we mean if you attend, about putting a pepper on the necklace and what that is all about. I can tell you from attending in 2016 just one previous appearance there. It is the greatest real estate event that I have ever attended. It's really immersive. It's really fun. Of course, you get off on these ports, and there's a beach component to it as well. It's not a low cost event, but as I like to say, it's not cheap, but neither are you.

Robert Helms 39:50

It is an investment, that's for sure. I think it's important that you approach it that way, right? As investors, we demand a return. On our investment, and you should do that on the summit. Don't just show up and have a party time. That'll be great. It'll be fun. But be strategic about who you want to meet, who you want to hang out with, and who you want to learn from. The faculty is like no other. We'll have at least 15 faculty members. There's a couple more that we're working on, whose names you would know, but we are not ready to announce yet, but it's going to be so much fun. Oftentimes, the best people you meet, you meet at dinner, or you meet at the beach, or you meet out on deck. So we'd love to have you join us and tell you what, if someone is listening to your show, Keith, and they would love to have dinner with you. All they have to do is let us know that when they register say, you know, I want a chance to have meal with Keith, and I think we can make that happen.

Keith Weinhold 40:45

Oh, that's great. And, you know, Robert, it's rare. It's the type of event where, even though it's been nine years since I was there, you developed such a close kinship with the like minded attendees that, you know, I might see a some of it's a Facebook friend now, you know, Steve or Dave or something. And I'll always remember, oh yeah, I met Steve on real estate guys Investor Summit to see it's almost like a relationship you would have with, like, a long ago high school classmate, to be around each other for nine days and all these places. It just kind of brings this different element to it. You can learn more at Investorsummitatsea.com, and get registered there. You can see my smiling face in the faculty section along with the other faculty members. Remember, it's really about all the other people that you meet. You have any last thoughts about the terrific Investor Summit at Sea Robert?

Robert Helms 41:36

I would just say that in life, we tend to regret the things that we don't do a lot more than the things that we do. So get on board. You'll have an amazing time. No matter how great we say it is. It's better than that. It's like summer camp for the affluent, summer camp. As a kid, you didn't want to go, you weren't sure, and by the end, you were lifelong buddies. It's like that. It's investing on steroids. The photo ops are amazing, and you'll meet super cool people, plus you'll get the hangout with Keith and I. So I would say join us for the 23rd annual investors Summit.

Keith Weinhold 42:14

There's wisdom out there that says you should say no to more things in life, and in one tranche, that makes sense, and you also need to say yes to more things in life that fits the category. Here with the Great Investor Summit at Sea I really anticipated. It's one of my biggest events of the year. And Robert, it's been great having you back on the show.

Robert Helms 42:35

Thanks so much, Keith, and appreciate your listeners. Listening in today. Don't quit your Daydream

Keith Weinhold 42:42

Well, said.

Next week on the show, we talk about how to streamline the operations at your rental properties. Is it better to own rental property with, say, two bathrooms rather than one, or is that just another faucet that can leak and shower that can leak and toilet that can clog, and the pros and cons of allowing your tenant to have a pet in your rental unit, it's those sort of operational things and more that we help you improve next week right here on The GRE podcast, it's interesting about investing in a hotel to such a large scale that you can court major franchise branding, like with Hilton, Marriott Wyndham or Hyatt, which Robert has successfully done. And I have visited that property of his with him in person, and it's amazing what he's done there. And you know something, I have rarely met an American, or any global resident that is averse to staying at a branded hotel. I mean, that only seems to be an attractant. Now in the US, some people, they used to dislike franchise restaurants. I even remember people saying, Hey, we don't need another chain restaurant in my town. But I've never seen people scorn chain hotels and today, I mean, in the here and now, people seem to want both franchise restaurants and hotels. I mean today, you're more likely to hear something like hey. When is our town getting a Chick fil A? Why don't we have one yet? And of course, there is plenty of opportunities in these shorter term stay spaces without ever attracting a branding deal, major thanks to the terrific Robert helms today for his keen insight on shorter term rental real estate. This event, June's investor summon at sea is such a good time, and Robert really knows how to host it and make sure you have a good time. After doing it for more than 20 years, it is a rich, immersive experience with people, places, learning and. And relationship building. It's the type of experience that you just can't get from an Instagram reel. It does draw attendees worldwide, although most attendees were from the US when I was there that one previous time. When you register, if you want to make sure that you get dinner with me, let them know, and we'll make it happen, because we know that you haven't heard enough of my voice every single week for more than a decade now, right? In my opinion, it is the crown jewel of world real estate investing events start at Investorsummitatsea.com until next week. I'm your host. Keith Weinhold, don't quit your Daydream.

Speaker 45:46

Keith Weinhold 46:14

The preceding program was brought to you by your home for wealth building. Get rich education.com

Direct download: GREepisode539_.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 4:00am EST

Mon, 27 January 2025

Keith answers listener questions about getting started in real estate investing with limited funds and how to determine the true appreciation of a property against inflation. He also discusses:

The impact of the LA wildfires on housing needs and some landlords raising rents excessively.

Economic and housing challenges facing Canada, including high inflation and unaffordable home prices. And highlights the views of likely future Canadian Prime Minister Pierre Poilievre on addressing these issues.

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537: How to Increase Your Real Estate ROI with a Cost Segregation

Complete episode transcript:

Automatically Transcribed With Otter.ai

Keith Weinhold 0:01

welcome to GRE. I'm your host. Keith Weinhold, I answer three of your listener questions, then learn why LA area landlords got a bad name during this month's awful Southern California wildfires. Finally, why Canadians cannot buy houses anymore, and what lessons you can learn from Canada's real estate mistakes and the abject lunacy there today on get rich education.

Unknown Speaker 0:30

Since 2014 the powerful get rich education podcast has created more passive income for people than nearly any other show in the world. This show teaches you how to earn strong returns from passive real estate investing in the best markets without losing your time being the flipper or landlord. Show Host Keith Weinhold writes for both Forbes and Rich Dad advisors and delivers a new show every week since 2014 there's been millions of listener downloads of 188 world nations. He has a list show guests and key top selling personal finance author Robert Kiyosaki, get rich education can be heard on every podcast platform, plus it has its own dedicated Apple and Android listener phone apps build wealth on the go with the get rich education podcast. Sign up now for the get rich education podcast or visit get rich education.com

Unknown Speaker 1:16

You're listening to the show that has created more financial freedom than nearly any show in the world. This is get rich education.

Keith Weinhold 1:32

Welcome to GRE from Gatlinburg, Tennessee to Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania and across 188 nations worldwide. I'm Keith Weinhold, and you are inside this week's installment of the program known as get rich education, I'm grateful that you're here, but you're not here for me. You are here for you. So let's talk about you and some of the listener questions that you wrote into the show about and as usual, whenever I have a batch of listener questions, I answer the beginner level questions first and then move on to more advanced questions. The first one comes from Jeanette in Seaford, Delaware. Jeanette asks, I only have a little money to invest in real estate. How do I get started with just a small amount of money. All right, Jeanette, well, first I would talk to a lender. You have to talk to a mortgage specialist or a loan officer to find out what you qualify for. You're basically getting them to punch holes into your financial picture. And then that way, Jeanette, you will know what holes to go, mend, so your loan officer is essentially giving you a free troubleshooting session. Now, our investment coaches here at GRE help you with some of that, but GRE doesn't originate loans, so you want to get with someone like a ridge lending group for help. And now, what are some of the holes that a mortgage lender might poke into your finances? Jeanette, well, getting your credit score up and they'll help you with that strategy. Or you simply need more dollars in savings, in what your mortgage loan underwriter calls reserves, or you might need to establish a two year job history, or you have to say, Pay off your car loan in order to get your debt to income ratio lower, or whatever it is. And since at GRE marketplace, the least expensive income property is probably about $120,000right now, a number that keeps going up with inflation. But what you would need is 23 to 25% of that between your down payment and closing costs, all right? Jeanette, so then about 28 to 30k that is the minimum lump of cash that you'll need to buy a property that is already fixed up and ready for a tenant, and that is a great way to start in real estate investing if you want to maintain your standard of living, okay, that is therefore the lowest entry point that you can do that. But if you're temporarily willing to let your quality of life slide for a couple years and maybe live communally. You can put as little as 3% down on a primary residence and then rent out the other rooms. Okay, that's the house hacking model, but depending on your setup, you know, maybe you're sharing a kitchen with roommates or suitemates, and therefore that temporary loss in quality of life. Maybe you can even Airbnb at a short term rental, in which case you will be buying the furniture. However, now with a 3% down payment on an owner occupied house, hack like that, you're probably going to have to pay a PMI premium, a private mortgage insurance premium of a few $100 per month. But still, this does get you in with very little money, since that's what you're asking about Jeanette. And finally, the third thing I'll bring up here is that you can get a combination of maintaining your standard of living and putting a small down payment on a property by using an FHA loan and three and a half percent down. And you can do that with a single family home, duplex, triplex or four Plex, living in one unit and renting out the others. So yes, you get both this way, but I will not go into the details on the FHA, because I have described that in detail on other episodes since it's how I started out myself. But there are a number of options right there for you to inquire about Jeanette, all starting with an investment centric mortgage lender like Ridgelendinggroup.com.

The next question comes from Jared in Pocatello, Idaho. Jared asks Keith, in the past year, my duplex in Pocatello went up in value 5% from 400k to 420k. How do I know how much of that 5% is true appreciation, and what portion of the 5% is from inflation? Oh, that is such a devastatingly cool question Jared, and that's exactly what I thought when I saw that question come in. Okay, so basically, Jared is asking, say, in this 5% price increase is 3% from inflation and 2% from appreciation, for example, or like, what is the breakout of those two components of the price change? And a lot of people don't understand the difference, and even know enough to ask a question this good. So props to you there. Jared. One thing you cannot do is just look at CPI inflation over the last year for the US, which is 2.9% and then say, Oh, well, then I guess the other 2.1% must be appreciation. Therefore, no, you can't really do that. There's more to it than that, for a lot of reasons. I mean consumer price inflation, like on a pound of ground beef at the supermarket, that is different from asset price inflation, and there are a lot of other reasons too. Appreciation is distinctly different from inflation, because the value of your property increasing 5% that has to do with the attractiveness of your property to the marketplace. Now there are attributes with appreciation, like proximity to high paying jobs, proximity to highways and shopping in desirable schools, which are basically those axiomatic Location, location, location qualities. Now I'm going to assume that you did not make an improvement or a renovation to the property Jared, because obviously that would hike up the value. Now other appreciation attributes that are distinctly different from inflation are things like population growth and wage growth in your area, what can really pump up appreciation is if the remaining availability of developable land starts shrinking and shriveling up in a desirable location. Contrary to popular belief, mortgage rates have little to do with appreciation. We can leave that out of this discussion. Now, how this is different from inflation is that inflation is not about the intrinsic value. Rather, inflation is the price of the home increasing because the currency is worth less. Now I hope that you find that explanation satisfying Jared, but what is dissatisfying is that it's actually hard to pin down a number and say, was this two and a half percent appreciation and two and a half percent inflation, or any other combination? And that's because inflation itself is practically impossible to accurately measure, and a lot of that has to do with an inflationary basket of goods that is just exceedingly difficult to adjust for attributes like quality and utility and substitution So Jerry did is likely that your duplexes 5% value increase is an amalgamation of both appreciation and inflation, that part I can confirm, but the exact breakdown for each is virtually incalculable, super insightful question there Jared.

The third and final of our three listener questions to get the show started today, and then I'll get into landlords in the LA wildfires and Canada versus us real estate. The final question today is from Jeter in Roseville, California. I know where Roseville is. It's just northeast of Sacramento, and I'm not sure if Jeter j, e t, e r is your first name or your last name, like former Yankees shortstop Derek Jeter, but only one name came in here. Jeter asks, Keith, I am a true believer in GRE principles. I'm looking to pounce on some property this year and get leverage and other people's money working for me, instead of only getting my money to work for me in my company's 401 k. Let me just interject here. You really get it. You really get it. Jeter, um, continuing on with your question, with mortgage rates around 7% I'd love to know where you think interest rates are headed next, and what is going to make rates move. Thanks, Jeter. Well, I've got to tell you, Jeter, not only do I avoid predicting future interest rates, but I don't know of anyone in the world that can predict interest rates with high reliability, especially over the medium to long term. James Grant, He's based in New York City. He puts out a publication called Grant's Interest Rate Observer that might just give you a better than 5050, shot of where they're headed next. He's a well regarded source. In fact, I saw James Grant speak in person a couple months ago, but I wouldn't put too much credence in any interest rate predictor out there. Now, just 11 days ago, I sent our newsletter subscribers a graphic of just how bad. I mean, really awful that recent interest rate predictions have been. I've never seen a chart like this. This chart looked like a centipede. Okay, the Bold Line was the actual federal funds rate that was like the centipedes body and all the hundreds of legs coming off this line were predictions that others had made, all deviating from the true line, the centipede body, which is what the rate really was. I mean, prominent experts rate predictions have a track record that's more abysmal than everyone saying we'd surely have a man on Mars, by now, terrible. Jeter. When you look at interest rate predictions, you're looking at a waste of your time. They're about as reliable as a weather app in a tornado a year ago, the collective brain trusts of all the economic wizards believed with devotion and alacrity that mortgage rates would be sub six now, instead, they are still about seven, which might correspond to a three or three and a half percent federal funds rate. They all thought the federal funds rate would be near three by now, but it's more like four and a half today. And what's hilarious is that, in more recent years, the Fed even tells us what they plan to do next. They even tell us it's little like having the answers to the test, and yet you still fail the test. You've got the cheat sheet and you still aren't doing any better? How can this possibly be? Well, the reason that I don't make interest rate predictions is because it is a surefire way to look foolish. Jeter, to answer the second part of your question, what moves interest rates around? The answer is, well, it's really broad economic forces and political forces, that is why it's tough, and this includes jobs reports, supply and demand of credit, inflation, a pandemic, a surprise new war in the Middle East, tariffs, GDP reports, surprise election outcomes, a massive change in tax policy and more. I mean, it is total entropy. Now, one thing we know is that persistently higher inflation will soon result in higher rates, just like we saw in 2022 I mean, rates rise in a bullish, robust and optimistic economy. And another thing that we do know is that sustained fear causes rates to fall. That's why, when you look at a chart, you see interest rates of all kinds plunge like a cliff diver during the 2001 dot com recession, the 2008 GFC and the 2020 COVID pandemic. The reason that rates fall during fearful times just like those, is because the economy needs the help and a little pro tip for you here, Jeter, when a recession begins, it's more likely than not that rates will fall. But see, it can be hard to predict a recession, as we've all found out recently, we just came off three fed interest rate cuts late last year, and that was a little weird, because the economy does not need the help that is sort of like offering Gatorade to someone that's not even sweating. Okay, and when rates scrape the ocean bottom floor at zero, from 2009 to 2016 and then again from 2020, to 2022,that's unhealthy. Natural market forces would mean that there's a cost to receive a service like borrowing money. Well, with zero rates, it feels like no one wants to save and everyone wants to borrow and spend. Zero rates, it is time to all out. Ball out. My two time GRE podcast guest here on the show, and super smart guy, Dr Chris Martinson, he thinks that rates are generally going to go higher from here. But you don't have to look far. You can find other wise guys that say they're going lower. At the last Fed meeting last year, they disappointed markets by signaling plans to only cut rates twice this year, instead of the four cuts that were previously expected. And now that's even changed since then, a lot of people question if those two cuts are even going to happen this year, given things like a hot jobs report that came flying in and still too high inflation. So this is kind of like expecting a decadent dessert of rate cuts, and instead you get, like, one Biscoff cookie, like they give you an economy on the plane. So Jeter, that's why I don't forecast rates. I don't think anyone can, but now, at least you have a couple resources, and you also know what factors move rates around.

Now if you want a fun, real time pulse on the market. Check out poly market. You might have heard of it by now. It's a site where you can place bets on various outcomes, a lot of non sports bets. You can see people put their money where their mouth is. You don't have to make a wager yourself. You can just see what people are wagering on. There are wagers on fed interest rate decisions. There at Poly market, you can even place a bet on if Jerome Powell says Good afternoon at his next press conference over there on Poly market, I'm not kidding right now, the odds of him saying Good afternoon at his next press conference are 96% so remember this, the market has always felt confident about where rates are headed, and the market has always been wrong. Interest rates don't drive property values. Their intrinsic worth is based on the timeless stuff, location, amenities, income, occupancy, size, density, business case, exit options and operating costs. Those are the things that drive property values. The bottom line with interest rates is that nobody knows the future interest rates direction is a pinball game of black swans and policy pivots. So instead, focus on the big things that you can control, like how many dollars you have, leveraging properties and keeping your operations on those properties efficient. So Jeter waiting to buy property generally harms an investor more than it helps them, because it's dollars on the sidelines that are paying the opportunity cost of not leveraging other people's money. Of course, if you buy your property at whatever interest rate today, and rates soon fall like a knife, well, then you can refinance at the lower rate, all while leverage keeps compounding and building your wealth. Thanks for the question, Jeter.

If you have a listener question or comment or feedback of any type for us, as always, you can visit us at get rich education.com/contactfor either written or voice communication there, like I said earlier, that amazingly interesting centipede like chart of just how dreadful interest rate predictions have really been that was in our recent newsletter. Now it's too late for you to get that issue, but to get more like them, you can get our don't Quit your Daydream. Newsletter, completely free, just text GRE to 66866 that's text GRE to 66866.

now, when it comes to this month's historically bad, devastating LA area wildfires, I heard from a friend in that area last week. She lives just south of LA and her house was spared, fortunately, but she's been busy helping friends in the LA area who have lost their homes and businesses. It is truly tragic. And you know, what she told me, is the biggest, most compelling need right now, and I put some credence in this, since it's an independent on the ground report. This is outside of major media, displaced residents. Number one need is not food, it's not water, it's not clothing, it's not heat, it's not even community with 1000s of families without homes, the urgent need is for housing. You might not find that surprising. That's what she shared with me. I mean, it is a need so dire that even a family of six would consider a small mobile home or an RV rental to help with temporary housing. And a lot of these displaced families were you know, you got to consider the fact that before the fire, they were living in above average homes, even luxury homes. Now, as far as LA area, landlords that have housing to rent out, a lot of those landlords have jacked up the rent price. California's anti price gouging. Laws make it illegal for landlords to raise rent by more than 10% in the first month to six months after a disaster is declared. Now the BBC reported that one resident who lost their home in the historic California wildfires found a rental property that was previously priced at $13,000 per month, they offered $20,000 per month, and the landlord countered with 23k that is a 75% price hike. And it's not the only example. A Bel Air home located in an evacuation warning zone was listed on Zillow recently at 29,500bucks a month. That is an 86% hike from its September of last year price. That's according to the outlet called La est, another realtor raised in Encino, California, listing from 9k per month at the beginning of this month to 11 and a half K after the fires started. That's according to the LA Times. The realtor then backpedaled to abide by the 10% rule, which she said that she did not know about. And for a little context there, yes, those rent prices sound high, and La rent was already high. It averaged $2,820 a month. That's compared to $1,983a month nationally. Those figures are per Zillow. Now I don't know what percentage of La landlords are engaging in. I guess what I'll call extortionate behavior, but even if it's the vast minority of landlords you know that gives them a bad name, to have the word landlord in headlines like this. And is this behavior extortionate? In some cases, it probably is, I suspect, just a guess here that some landlords might think they have a chance of insurance paying some or all of the higher rent for their tenant that was displaced from their original home. But let's keep things in perspective here. What this does to good landlords reputations. You know, that's not the story here. The story and the effort should be in helping the displaced people. And of course, there are so many angles to the devastating la wildfires. One of them is that many believe zoning laws pushed homes out into fire prone areas. I recently shared that reason.com article with you in our free newsletter. So again, to get our Don't quit your Daydream newsletter, completely free, which I write every word of myself. Text GRE to 6866 you can do it now, while it's on your mind, hit pause and text GRE to 66866 the abject lunacy in Canada's real estate market, in what US residents and others can learn from all this, that's next. I'm Keith Weinhold. You're listening to get rich education.

Hey, you. Can get your mortgage loans at the same place where I get mine at Ridge lending group NMLS, 42056, they provided our listeners with more loans than any provider in the entire nation because they specialize in income properties. They help you build a long term plan for growing your real estate empire with leverage. You can start your pre qualification and chat with President Caeli Ridge personally. Start now while it's on your mind at Ridge lendinggroup.com That's ridgelendinggroup.com.

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Naresh Vissa 26:41

this is GRE real estate investment coach. Naresh Vissa don't live below your means, grow your needs. Listen to get rich education with Keith Weinhold.

Keith Weinhold 26:57

Welcome back to get rich Education. I'm your host. Keith Weinhold, let's discuss the Canadian economy and Canadian real estate. Because even if you live in the US or Central America or Europe or one of the other 187 nations that were heard in outside the US, you know there are lessons here for you, and there are lessons here for me as well. There is some just jaw dropping material that I'm about to share with you, and I won't discuss the politics of it, because that's not GRE 's lane. Instead, it is the policy. Earlier this month, Canada's equivalent of the President, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announced that he will be resigning soon. And Trudeau has been under a lot of criticism. At last check, his approval rating was a miserable 22% now, most people think that the next and future Prime Minister of Canada will be a man named Pierre Poilievre. In fact, the wagering site poly market has polyev with an over 80% chance of being Canada's next prime minister, and you will hear him speak shortly here. And yes, that is how an Anglophone pronounces his last name, polyev In a recent interview with Dr Jordan Peterson. You'll listen into here shortly. Polyev, Canada's likely next leader here, first, he describes some of the problems with Canada's economy, and then he'll get into their real estate market. Right now, the median home price in the United States is about 450k you might think that Canada's should be lower, because Canada has more land in the US and Canada has just about 1/9 of the US population. So a low population density. I mean, the US is population density is more than 10 times Canada's. But no, due to some of these policies, it's just the opposite, because Canada's average home is over 725k. yeah, that's just for a basic home. I've got to admit, I did not know who polyev was until just a couple months ago. I'm starting to like him the more that I listen to him. He's a clear thinker and a clear speaker. Here is a clip of Canada's likely next leader talking about Canada's problems. This is 10 and a half minutes long. I'm going to listen to this again with you right now, and then I will come back along with you to comment. This is why you can't buy a house in Trudeau, Canada.

Unknown Speaker 29:41

Our productivity is another major problem right now, and that's productivity. Sounds complicated. It's actually extremely simple. You just take the GDP and you divide it by the hours worked in the country. So American GDP is $80 so for every hour an American worker works, on average. He or she produces $80 of GDP in Canada, it 50. So that's every hour. So that means we have to work 60% more just to make the same amount and have the same level of income to buy food and housing. And so that's the Now that sounds like a bunch of wonk speak that should might seem like it only matters to someone staring at a spreadsheet or a graph or a chart, but in fact, that's reflected in the fact that our 2 million people are lined up at food banks because they can't afford food, and 80% of youth can't afford homes, and our quality of life is and the things we can afford to provide our kids have fallen back so much there's a real, real life, Stark and easily comprehensible statistic. And if you work and you produce $80 worth of goods and services in an hour, yeah, compared to working and producing 50, obviously, that's a substantial shortfall. Yeah. So, and is that, is there a starker indicator of the economic disparity between the US and Canada than that? Or do you think that's the primary statistic? I mean, I think housing costs are another one. I mean, right. There was a study out just 10 days ago that has Toronto and Vancouver now by far the most unaffordable housing markets in North America. And so you know, housing costs are 50% higher in Toronto than they are in Chicago, even though Chicago workers make 50% more money. The same is true between Vancouver and Seattle. Seattle workers make way more than Vancouver workers, but housing is 60 or 70% more expensive in Vancouver. So on, all the measures by a lot. Yes, a lot by a lot. Yeah, and we're and we're paying more, more by a lot, right? And most of that's transpired the last 10 years. Yes, and we're paying the difference by accumulating enormous quantities of debt. Our households are by far the most indebted in the g7. when you take you divide total household debt by GDP, we now have a bigger stock of household debt than our entire economy. We are more indebted as households than the Americans were right before the oh eight financial crisis. And so what we have as a model in Canada is we have artificial scarcity imposed by very heavy and restrictive state, confiscatory state, so that suppresses production. But in order to allow for consumption, we print money and borrow money and then flood the economy with that money. Okay, so that's another problem. So that's the inflationary problem. Yes. Now the problem with inflation just many problems with inflation, but one of them is that it particularly punishes people who are thrifty and who save? Yes, right, right? So inflation punishes the people who forego gratification to invest in the future. That's right, right? So that's a very bad idea. It's our inflation is the single most immoral tax for so many reasons. One, it takes from savers and people who are trying to be responsible, thus making it impossible to be responsible, because you will, if you, if you refuse to play the inflation game of borrowing money to buy things you can't afford, someone else inevitably will, and you won't be able to afford anything. So you ultimately have to actor responsibly. It's like Milton Friedman was asked, What would you do with your money in times of inflation? He said, spend it right like the first thing you want to do when inflation is out of control is to make sure you get rid of this thing that's losing its value. The second reason it's immoral is it takes from the poor, because the poorest people cannot put they do not have the ability to buy inflation proof assets like gold and real estate and fancy watches and art collections and wine fancy wines and things that go up with or even exceed inflation. So it's a very big wealth transfer from the have to the from the from the poor and the working class to the very, very wealthy, a very small group of people actually get richer. So the socialist policies that provide goods and services to Canadians, let's say, or denizens of other countries by printing money, actually punish the poor brutally. Oh, absolutely, and consequence of the inflation that they generate. Yes, I mean all the socialist policies in practice take redistribute from the working class to the super wealthy in practice, and I can prove that again and again and again in practice, yeah, in practice. In practice they with the all the redistribution that happens in the so called socialist countries ultimately goes from the working class to the super wealthy. That is the reality. Okay, so, but just one last thing on inflation. The final reason why it's so immoral is nobody votes on it. The basic principle of our parliamentary system is the government can't tax what parliament has not voted the people must no taxation without representation, right? But no one ever votes to have the money printing happen. And so the inflation is adopted secretly, and you blame the grocer because groceries are more expensive, or your local gas station because gas is more or your realtor because house, in fact, it was actually the government that bid up all of those things with money printing, and you didn't even know about it. So it is silent. It's a silent thief that takes from the poor and gives to the richest people and destroys the working class. And that's why I am I want to crush inflation. We need a policy that seeks to just to stop inflation at all, at all costs. Okay, so what would you do to to stop inflation? Well, we stopped the money printing. You know, we need a we need. And the money printing is just a means to fund deficit spending. Governments borrow to define the deficit, yeah, for people. So basically, the deficit is the difference between what the government spends and what it brings in. It's usually calculated on a yearly basis, that's right, yeah, and the debt, but the debt is just the accumulation of the deficits, right? So the deficit right now is $62 billion and I thought it had a ceiling of 41 billion. Yeah, right. Isn't that a ceiling? Yes, not a I guess not. And look, there are very real present day consequences for that. Deficits increase the money supply. Central banks effectively facilitate that increase in the money supply, and that causes inflation. And, you know, it's, it's why our, you know, I have a buddy who's whose family moved here from Italy back in 1973 His father worked paving roads and his mother made sandwiches in a senior's home, they were able to pay off their home 10 minutes from Parliament Hill in seven years. Right, their grandchildren wouldn't be able to save up a down payment for that home in 15 years, and they will be university educated with all the advantages of having been here two decades. That is the consequence of the money supply growing vastly quicker than the stuff that money buys. So we have to do is stop growing the money supply and start growing the stuff money buys. Right? Produce more energy, grow more food, build more homes. We have to unleash the free enterprise system to produce more stuff of value, and this is where we have to remove the artificial scarcity that the government is imposing on the population. Let's incentivize our municipalities to grant the fastest building permits in the world to build homes. You have a plan for that in principle, yes, I mean, I'm going to say to the municipal governments, they either, they either speed up permits, cut Development Charges and free up land, or they will lose their federal infrastructure money, so they will have a powerful carrot and stick incentive to speed up home building and the percentage of a new house price. That's a consequence of government, taxation and regulation. Well, in Vancouver, it's 60% 66 does that include the land and the house? Yes, that includes everything. So I'll tell you how they calculate it, CD, how took the cost of building a compare the cost of building a home to the cost of buying a home, yeah. And he said, what's the gap between those two things? So they added up land, labor, profit for the developer, materials, and they compared that to the sale price, and they found the gap was $1.2 million so that's $1.2 million of extra cost, above and beyond the materials, the labor, the land and the profit for the developer. So where's that going? Well? The answer is, development charges,sales taxes, land transfer taxes, the delays in getting the permit. Time is money, the consultants, lawyers, accountants, lobbyists that the developer has to hire in order to get the approval that so in other words, we're spending twice in Vancouver. We spend twice as much on bureaucrats than we do on all other things combined. To build a home, more money goes to bureaucrats than goes to the carpenters, electricians and plumbers who build the place. And to add insult to injury, those trades people who build homes can't afford to live in them, right? I mean, it is. So what we need to do is slash the bureaucracy. And I'm going to I'm going to say to the mayors, you're not getting federal infrastructure money until you slash your development charges, speed up your permits. I'm going to take. The Federal GST off new homes under a certain limit, and encourage the provinces to do the same. But we've got so much land. We should have the most affordable housing in the world. We have. It should be dirt cheap because we have the most dirt we just need to get the government out of the way.

Keith Weinhold 40:20

Yeah, again, that was Dr Jordan Peterson interviewing Canada's likely next leader, Pierre poilievre, just a few weeks ago now. Polyev, when discussing inflation and investing, you know, he also brought up points that I've surfaced here on the show over the past few years. He even articulates a few things the way I've described them. It's almost weird, like inflation means that it actually makes sense to strategically borrow and spend and not to save. It's almost like polyev is a GRE listener. I love how he said, stop growing the money supply and start growing the things that money buys. We're talking about things like homes and energy and food. That was eloquent. I mean, in Vancouver, the percentage of a new house cost for taxation and regulation is 60% of the cost of the home, fully 60 and then, if that's not surprising enough, due to all these layers of regulation, the cost of building a new home is $1.2 million more than the cost of buying an existing home. Just astounding. This might have even left you either flabbergasted or gobsmacked, which one?So some parallels to the US there in Canada, but back here in the US, the housing market is clearly more affordable and healthier. Polyev really pointed out a direction that the US does not want to fall into. In fact, we've got a pretty good Canadian listening contingent. So let me ask, Do you have a connection to Pierre poilievre, if you do, we would probably like to invite him here on to the show with us. If you do, or you even know someone that knows someone, let us know right into get rich education.com/contact or email us directly at info@get rich education.com and we'll make that happen now. What is happening at GRE marketplace right now is that our listeners are getting brand new build investment property in Florida and some other places at competitive prices and a fixed interest rate of just four and three quarters percent. So yes, that is sub Canadian prices, by far below Canadian prices, and a four and three quarter percent rate. And then on top of that, you get to pay an affordable insurance premium in Florida because it's new build, or similarly, it's that way in other states if you buy new build, but builders overbuilt in some pockets of Florida, like I've mentioned to you before. So at this time, on top of all that, they're offering a free full year of property management. And because when you own a new build property, it's not occupied with tenants on day one, and this means that you don't inherit unknown tenants. And builders are also offering you up to three months in a rent guarantee in case your single family home or duplex or four Plex is not occupied yet, the builder would pay the rent for you. Really amazing incentives, but probably none better than that four and three quarter percent mortgage rate. I mean, it's like you get to roll the clock back to when rates were artificially low, back in 2021, and 2022, and lock it in. Now, our GRE investment coaches connect you with the investment property that's right for you based on your needs and your goals, including those four and three quarter percent rates, if you so choose, it is all free at GRE marketplace. From GRE marketplace.com just click on the coaching area and you can book a time right there until next week. I'm your host. Keith Weinhold, don't quit your Daydream.

Unknown Speaker 44:23

Unknown Speaker 44:51

The preceding program was brought to you by your home for wealth building get rich education.com you.

Direct download: GREepisode538_.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 4:00am EST

Mon, 20 January 2025

Cost segregation studies can significantly reduce taxable income by accelerating depreciation on rental properties. They reclassify certain property components, such as flooring and lighting, to shorter depreciation schedules (5, 7, or 15 years) instead of the standard 27.5 years for residential or 39 years for commercial properties.

This method can result in substantial tax savings. For example, a $510,000 duplex study yielded $131,000 in accelerated depreciation, potentially saving $40,000 in taxes at a 30% rate.

Although the percentage has been stepping down, it may be reinstated to 100% under the Trump administration.

Initiate a cost segregation study estimate here to determine the potential tax savings.

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536: Why the Housing Crisis is Pushing Homelessness to Catastrophic Heights

Complete episode transcript:

Automatically Transcribed With Otter.ai

Keith Weinhold 0:01

Welcome to GRE. I'm your host. Keith Weinhold, when you reduce your taxable income, that's a zero risk return on your investment. You'll learn how to do that today with any rental real estate that you own through what's known as a cost segregation study, even those without a giant portfolio can save 10s or hundreds of 1000s of dollars. An expert guests and I break it down with real life examples, see just how it can help you today. On get rich education

Speaker 1 0:34

since 2014 the powerful get rich education podcast has created more passive income for people than nearly any other show in the world. This show teaches you how to earn strong returns from passive real estate investing in the best markets without losing your time being a flipper or landlord. Show Host Keith Weinhold writes for both Forbes and Rich Dad advisors, and delivers a new show every week since 2014 there's been millions of listener downloads of 188 world nations. He has a list show, guess who? Top Selling personal finance author Robert Kiyosaki, get rich education can be heard on every podcast platform, plus it has its own dedicated Apple and Android listener phone apps build wealth on the go with the get rich education podcast. Sign up now for the get rich education podcast, or visit get rich education.com

Corey Coates 1:19

You're listening to the show that has created more financial freedom than nearly any show in the world. This is get rich education.

Keith Weinhold 1:35

Welcome to GRE from Berlin, Pennsylvania to Berlin, Germany and across 188 nations worldwide. I'm Keith Weinhold. You're listening to get rich education. And one way that I like to be positioned in real estate is the sense that I own it directly, yet I use a property manager so that I'm shielded from the day to day responsibility. I care, but I can still live my life now you might favor direct ownership like I do, yet choose to self manage your property instead. That's a viable way to do it. Self management is how I started out, but however you handle the management when you own directly, you can alter your effective post tax rate of return on your investment, and that's what we're talking about doing today with a cost segregation what this effectively does is increase your tax depreciation benefit. Though depreciation sounds bad as a word in the real estate world, even without spending any of your own money, it's still classified by the tax code as an expense that you can deduct from your taxable income. You don't want to reduce your income, only the taxable income reducing the portion that the IRS can get a piece of. Now, unless it's a condo, your rental property probably includes both a structure called the improvement and also the land. Now your improvement has components that wear out, and even the IRS knows that the land does not wear out yet. There are items on the land that you can get this accelerated depreciation on through a cost segregation, like fencing and lighting and carports. A lot of people don't know that, so there is therefore a land improvement segregation often on a 15 year schedule, but it's even more lucrative to get cost segregations applied to things inside your building or home that wear out faster, like countertops or flooring, as we'll see today, on shorter schedules, like five or seven years. Said another way what you're doing is that you are shielding more of your taxable income. And I'm going to ask today's Cost Segregation expert guest for an example near the start of our conversation, so he'll give us some numbers. And you want to listen to that part closely, and you might find yourself skipping back to re listen to some parts today as we give real life examples on how a cost seg works. Now, today is a Presidential Inauguration Day, so it's appropriate that we cover this today, because Trump is widely expected to reset 100% bonus depreciation, which, as you'll see, factors into our discussion today. And frequent GRE guest Tom wheelwright thinks that this is going to happen too this 100% bonus depreciation. What that means that, for example, all those land improvements that I mentioned on a 15 year depreciation schedule, where you could front load it and get it all in year one of your ownership and those components indoors. On shorter depreciation schedules, like five to seven years, you can get all those write offs in year one without waiting five to seven years. So that's. The sweetener that 100% bonus depreciation is, if Trump indeed brings that back, and you might say, wait a second, this sounds a little too good to be true. I mean, getting these amounts, you'll see they can be over 100k in tax savings, even for a small investor, that you can reduce your taxable income by Well, you know, it is just a little too good to be true, because when you sell the property down the road, you have to pay back 25% of what you wrote off this way in what's known as a depreciation recapture tax. So it's still worth doing. In a lot of cases, you would keep 75% of your benefit then, unless you do a tax deferred exchange on your sale, and then you could defer that 25% depreciation recapture tax. So yes, today's episode is deeper than most. And you know, being a Presidential Inauguration Day, and knowing that I like to drop a little levity here before we delve into deep topics, what does the outgoing presidential administration have to say about cost? Segregations get hot.

Speaker 2 6:13

I got Lana. I got hairy legs that turn that turnblonde in the sun, and the kids used to come up and reach in the pool and rub my leg down so it was trained, and then watch the hair come back up again.

Keith Weinhold 6:32

I don't know what just happened there. Let me just give him another chance to clear things up. I mean, you really can do a cost segregation,

Speaker 2 6:41

we have this notion that somehow, if you're poor, you cannot do it. Poor kids are just as bright and just as tall as white kids.

Keith Weinhold 6:51

Gosh, oh dear, I don't I don't know where to go with that. And hey, if you're a new listener, you know, over time, we poke a little fun at every president. We do with Trump as well. We do with Jerome Powell. No one is immune around here. Some people, hey, they might find it funny that a former real estate investor President like Trump wants to expand America's real estate portfolio by taking Canada and Greenland in the Panama Canal back too. Politics matter, but this is not a politically partisan platform in any way. What's politically partisan? It's saying that the economy is like absolutely awful, but then as soon as your guy gets sworn in, one hour later, you're willing to call that same economy. Now suddenly, a great economy. No, a national economy does not change in one hour. So free thinking and thinking for yourself beats polarizing political partisanship. That's a way it's been around here from day one. Yeah, a little levity, a good knee slapper now and then knee slapper coming up in future weeks on the show here, the real estate guys radio show host and a friend, Robert Helms, will be here to update us on what's happening in the short term rental market, mid term rental market and more. We'll also announce a big collaboration that he and I are going to do together this year, and you'll be invited to join us today, let's discuss cost segregation.

You can take your tax burden and put a huge dent in it by accelerating your real estate depreciation deduction with a cost segregation This could save you 1000s of dollars every year or more depending on the size of your real estate portfolio. We're talking about how to specifically do this with a cost seg expert. He's been a real estate investor for over 20 years. He builds new rentals to hold, and he and his son do that together. In fact, you're currently building a 24 unit complex now. But the reason he's here is because he started a specific cost segregation company in 2012 and he completes over 100 cost seg studies every year. So he's really the guy to talk to. Steve, welcome on to the show. Thanks for having me. I appreciate it. It's great to have an expert like you here and Steve, I think a lot of real estate investors, they're familiar with tax depreciation. That's where for rental property, with residential, there's a 27 and a half year schedule. And commercial has a 39 year schedule. We take the reciprocal of those numbers, and that means that, for example, in residential, you can write off about 3.6% of the improved property value every year. That's pretty nice on a 500k property that right there is 18k that can be sheltered from taxes annually. But most investors stop right there. So in a lot of cases, they aren't maximizing their tax benefit. You can write off substantially more than that, potentially. With a cost segregation. So tell us about it.

Steve Trussell 10:04

Cost Segregation. As you just mentioned, you have your regular depreciation, which most do take. Believe it or not, I've come across a few people that own property for a few years, and they're not taking it at all, which is, I don't understand that maybe they're doing on accounting, but we get them on track with that. But as you said, 27 and a half and 39 year depreciation, whether it's residential, 27 a half commercial, 39 that's all well and good, but there's a lot of money left on the table, because when you look at the the piece of real estate, there's a probably 22 to 32% of the asset itself, the depreciable asset that's shorter life, for example, cabinets, flooring, light fixtures, uh, outside the landscaping, retaining walls, things like that that are shorter life. So what we do in a cost segregation study, we go in and we rebuild the property through an engineered study, we pull out the five and the 15 year property and reclassified. And so usually you're going to wind up with about 70, 75% of it will stay on the schedule. It was on whether it be 27 and a half or 39 but then that 20 to 30% that we're going to bring forward is a huge number. So for example, I just recently did one. It was a duplex, $510,000 was the purchase 433, was the basis, after land, the depreciable basis. It was kicking out about 16,000 a year in regular depreciation. For the investor, which covered, you know, their cash flow and so forth, so forth. Most people know how that works. We were able to go back and accelerate it and get 131,000 or about 31% of it in 515, year property. So they had $131,000 depreciation amount sitting there. Then they still were able to write off the 302, that was left at 11,000 a year. So they're still getting their normal depreciation, a smaller number, but that 131,000 if they can use it with bonus depreciation, is $131,000 of money sitting there. They could offset $131,000 of income. That's a huge number. If they're not doing that now, they're leaving money on the table.

Keith Weinhold 12:01

Gosh, $131,000 of potential tax sheltering, which is, yeah, a huge number on a 500k duplex, like you described.

Steve Trussell 12:11

It's a substantial number. And if you're not doing cost segregation, then you're leaving a lot of money on the table, like I said. So then it comes down to it. It's a, I guess, cost versus benefits. So the first thing we do is, I get the data from your purchase of your piece of real estate or server, whatever it is, we put together an estimate of benefit to give you an idea of what that would look like for you, like in this example, that's what we produced. Was what we thought we could bring forward for this investor. And then at that point, once we determine that you look at 131,000 the cost of our study is $1,830 so 131 versus 1830 is a pretty good bargain. I believe. I mean, I know I'm selling my product, but that's a pretty good bargain. Yeah. And then the third part of it is, so we've established that it's probably makes sense. But then can you use it? If you're a real estate professional, if you're familiar with what that means, you can write that off against your active and passive income. If you're not, you're a w2 and you're not quite there. Yet it may be that you don't do it now. You do it in a couple of years, but either way, the process is there when you can use it. Probably 80% of my investors are able to use it the year we do it. And if you don't use all of it, you carry it forward. So it's makes sense, typically, to do a cost segregation study, but that's what we help you establish by one, the estimate, and two, discussing with you or with your CPA, does this fit you? Is this something you can use as from a tax standpoint?

Keith Weinhold 13:37

Yes, it was just a few episodes ago. I describe more about what real estate professional status is. The main thing is, typically, real estate needs to be you, the investor's principal activity. So it's not very likely that you're going to be a real estate professional if you still have a full time day job.

Steve Trussell 13:56

There are doctors and lawyers and people like that that have a full time job, and they just could not justify spending the amount of time and being a real estate professional. But sometimes their wife would be the candidate to be that. So their wife becomes or this, or the husband. If the wife is there's the breadwinner, becomes the real estate professional, and then they can take that and write it off against their active income. And I don't want to jump into the CPA side of this. That's more of a CPA question, but that's how I understand it works. And I've seen that happen before, where someone who has a full time job is able to bring their spouse in as their real estate professional, and they're able to use utilize it that way.

Keith Weinhold 14:34

Well, to talk more about this benefit of $131,000 on the duplex example that you gave, if all that is able to be deducted at a 30% income tax rate, that is 40k of savings. 40k is about 30% of this $131,000 number. So that's the money the increase in net income in your pocket.

Steve Trussell 15:00

yeah, which is substantial, and that's where you look at your individual tax break. I'm gonna save 40,000 in taxes, and I'm gonna spend $1,800 for the study. Makes sense to me to do that. It's pretty good return on your money, but it comes down to being able to use it. And so that's the things that we explore when I'm talking to a client.

Keith Weinhold 15:19

Now, Steve, I know in the past, I have talked to cost segregation engineers and their firms on the phone, where they've looked at some properties that I had, and I don't remember whether they charged me for this or not, but what I learned is it wouldn't be worth going ahead with a cost segregation study on and I'm thinking that they didn't charge me anything to tell me that, but really what I'm getting at is, can you tell us more about when it makes sense to do a cost seg on properties, and when it does not?

Steve Trussell 15:46

Well, there's okay if you're going to sell it the next few years, it does because you're going to recapture so you don't want to spend money for a study only to get the benefit for a year and then sell it and have to recapture it. Now, in my personal situation, I have done that because I bought more property and I was able to use the cost segregation to offset my gains versus a 1031 So by and large, it doesn't make sense. If you're going to sell it, that's number one. You may have owned it for eight or nine years, 10 years, maybe you've used a lot of your depreciation already. So that delta between the accelerated depreciation and which you've already taken may not be enough to make sense. It may be a property that's, you know, $80,000 probably doesn't make a lot of sense to spend the money. The mass just doesn't typically work there. I've done some as low as that because they wanted the tax benefit, and I'll do whatever the client wants me to do. But those are the three things that I would say probably would determine whether it makes sense or not. But that's where the estimate comes in. I mean, you bring me a property, and if it's $40,000 I'll tell you before I do anything, probably not worth messing with it. It's you're not gonna get much benefit. But if you bring me a property and it's $125,000 asset, we'll take a look at it. I'll do a quick estimate for you, no charge, and it'll either apply and make sense for you, or it won't. And I'll be the first to tell you, if it doesn't you know your individual tax situation, I'm just talking about the dollars that we create for you versus the cost. If it doesn't make sense, I'll tell you. I don't want you to waste your money doing a cost segregation study if you don't need it or can't use it.

Keith Weinhold 17:14

Okay, So there are a number of factors here, which could include how long the investors own the property, how soon they plan to sell the property. It sounds like there's generally a correlation here, with the larger the property, the more likely it is that it makes sense to do the study as well.

Steve Trussell 17:29

It does. I have a client that I'm working on right now. He has six properties, and I think they were 2021, acquisition. So that was it four years ago, and they're not on a depreciation schedule, he hasn't taken anything. So in this case, it's, you certainly would want to do a cost segregation study, and that you need to have your properties on a depreciation schedule anyway, for whatever reason they weren't there. So in this case, if you came across a client that had a property for 10 years or for some reason it was never on a depreciation schedule, which that's, I don't know how that would happen, but let's assume it did. In that case, you would make sense to do because you're going to catch up all that depreciation from back, from 10 years ago all the way through today, which would even be a larger number. So that happens occasionally, rarely it happens, but it does happen where someone has never depreciated a property.

Keith Weinhold 18:17

We're talking with a man that can greatly reduce your tax burden. I think for one thing, first, he's gonna check to make sure that you're taking the basic tax depreciation. But beyond that, as you can see here, there's a potential to do a lot more with a cost segregation. You're listening to get rich education more when we come back on cost seg studies, I'm your host. Keith Weinhold.

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Robert Helms 20:17

Hey everybody. It's Robert helms with the real estate guys radio program. So glad you found Keith whitehold and get rich education. Don't quit your Daydream.

Keith Weinhold 20:32

Welcome back to get rich education. I love talking about tax savings vehicles, because it's like a no risk instant ROI to you, that's what we're doing today, when we're talking about accelerating your depreciation and reducing your tax burden through a cost segregation. And Steve, in my experience, I know that you can't just ask anyone to go do this study, like your Slack John, uncle with a tape measure and sending him out there. It takes a person with a certain credential in a Cost Segregation engineering analysis. So can you tell us more about what physically needs to take place to have a cost seg done?

Steve Trussell 21:09

Yeah, you're right. People. You could try to do this yourself, but it probably wouldn't pass muster with the IRS if you were to, if they were to question the study. One thing that we do, and most firms like mine would do also, we do back up the study, and we do guarantee that we will defend the study on your behalf. If there's a question, very rarely does it come up, but if there's a question from the IRS, we step in in your place and defend the study and justify how we arrived at these and that's only through a call to an engineered study. So if you have your your uncle, as you mentioned, doing it, it doesn't follow the audit technique guide. Doesn't follow the guides that are required for cost segregation study. You're probably going to find it getting kicked out and wind up owing taxes and penalties. So you want to make sure you're someone who's qualified and they do an engineer study, same thing as a CPA. CPAs aren't qualified to do a cost segregation study because it is an engineered study. We're breaking down the entire property and rebuilding it with our software on commercial buildings. You'd mentioned. What do we do? Commercial building? We do a physical site visit. We actually go to the property. Those are more expensive because we're there at the property and travel time and so forth. That to do that with engineers on residential we have a unique program. We do a virtual site visit where I can do this or my desktop, and that's why I'm able to keep the cost down. But we still do a site visit, because there's so many tools available today to be able to do a virtual site visit, I mean, for anywhere in the United States. So we can do this anywhere in the United States, and I take the tools that we have, the data I get from the client, we can do a virtual site visit and create the study from that

Keith Weinhold 22:43

really what the IRS is doing, whether this probably isn't reality, but you're saying your property wears out completely in 27 and a half years. That means that you can take some portion of that and depreciate it each year, but with some of these components that you mentioned, like the flooring and like the bushes. I think even the landscaping is one of the components that you can do a cost seg on. Basically they're saying that wears out faster.

Steve Trussell 23:11

Correct. Pretty much everything outside the building is 15 year life, sometimes even shorter than that. But that's how it classes 15 year life. Like your driveway, your like I said earlier, your retaining walls, grass, landscaping, fences, things like that, outdoor lighting, stuff like that. The inside the building is the five year property, which is your countertops, your flooring, fixtures. Think of things. I mean, floor is going to wear out before 27 half years, you're going to be replaced. You do it in your own home. Typically, you know? Well, I would never keep it for 27 and a half years. I would I wouldn't thank him in my house, but because they do wear out sooner. Tile is a little different animal. There's some debate about that, but for the most part, it's components like that that we're able to reclass in a five year classification.

Keith Weinhold 23:54

That's pretty generous. Grass wears out in 15 years.

Steve Trussell 23:58

Well, it's a 15 year. Yeah, it dies. You know, things change landscape, things like that. So yeah, you do. Those can be classed at 15 years.

Keith Weinhold 24:08

All right, we've talked about the cost in terms of dollars a bit for what a cost segregation study might cost. How much time does it take from the time one is initiated?

Steve Trussell 24:16

It depends. We could typically work with your schedule. I get a lot of last minute folks that get with me in September and they need their October 15, or even this September 15 depends on what kind of entry Do you have it in. And so we can turn these as quickly as you need it, typically, if I have all the data and all the information, especially if it's a residential where I'm not having to travel, but by and large, I can turn these in less than 30 days back to you, and if you need it sooner, we'll burn the midnight oil and get it done for you. That's during crutch time for between January 1 and April 15. If you file early or on time, if you file in October and you extend your taxes and the automatic extension in April, you've got to have the study done before you file. Your taxes. So if you wanted it for 2024 you need to have a study completed by April 15 of 2025 if you're going to file it April 15, if you're gonna file in October, the automatic extension, you need to have it completed by then. So our busy season is January through April 15, and then probably starting July, August time frame through October 15. That's our busy season. So the point of it, if you're going to do a study and use it for your current tax year, it must be completed no matter when you purchased it, but it must be completed prior to you filing your taxes, so you can use it on that tax return.

Keith Weinhold 25:35

All right, so we're just getting into Steve's busy season. So if you think this can benefit you. You want to initiate that sooner rather than later. But Steve, when we talk more about the benefits, we've had a change in presidential administration. So tell us more about the bonus depreciation benefit.

Steve Trussell 25:53

Your bonus appreciation came out in the previous administration before this last one, Trump's first administration that came out of that. So the anything where you reclass is five, seven and 15, your property, but it's 100% bonus. In other words, if you go back to the 131,000 I mentioned on the duplex, all of that in between September 2017 through December 31 to 2022 you get 100% of that. It's starting in January of 2023 through the end of december 23 it went to 80% and the next year, 60, and in 2025 it's going to be 40. But there's been an extension that was passed last in 2024 in the house to go back to the 100% installed in the Senate. And we think with the new administration, we'll probably in the new tax cuts, we'll probably see this reinstated and go back to the 100% which is substantial. If you're getting, you know, 60% of the 131, what is that? 78,000 bucks, roughly, something like that. And if you're getting 100% that's a big difference. So we're hopeful that we'll see that sometime in the first quarter. And so even if you file your taxes in April and it hasn't passed yet and you've only gotten four, you only get 40% bonus depreciation. You'll get that extra 60 the next year. What's happening now, though, before it, if it without being stated, you're still getting a bigger benefit. Because, as I mentioned before, the 131 comes forward, and you get the percentage of that the 302 is left over. In that example I used earlier, you've got your regular 27 net fear depreciation, but that 131 is still five and 15 year property, so you're depreciating that much faster than you would on a 27 after your schedule. So you're still getting a benefit, just not as good as when you get 100% bonus depreciation.

Keith Weinhold 27:34

Okay. And again, when you're talking about five, seven and 15 year property, you're talking about those component lifespans, correct, where we reclass that bonus depreciation benefit started out at 100% a few years ago. It's been stepping down 20% each year, and that is set to most likely refresh here sometime this year, back to the full 100% bonus depreciation. And if that does indeed happening you the listener. You're going to be hearing about that from your real estate investor friends and your social media feed and everything else, and you're going to maybe be feeling left out of that unless you get on top of it and take part of this. That's exactly what we're talking about doing right now. Steve, why don't you talk to us about some of those other components that are included or excluded from a cost segregation study, whether that's lighting fixtures or parking lot asphalt, tell us more.

Steve Trussell 28:27

Exterior is the 15 year life we talked about, the parking lots, the big residential the driveways, the landscaping, the fencing, retaining walls, bushes, the things that are gonna be outside. Okay, everything outside is 15 years pretty much, yes. And then when you go inside, look at the things that you would typically change out. You're not gonna change your plumbing. It's in your foundation and your walls, unless it breaks. You're not gonna change your roof. Is also, even though you change it out, it's also a permanent part of the structure. The roof is but the inside the house you have your or even outside, you've got your brick on the outside of your siding, that's 27 half for your property inside the cabinets, your countertops, flooring, your decorative light fixtures, the your plumbing fixtures, things like that, glass mirrors, things like that, that are going to be naturally shorter life. And it's pretty easy to look at a piece of property and see what's permanent again, like I use the example, the foundation, the studs in the wall, the brick, the she rock on the wall, those things are permanent fixtures. It's the things that are movable parts, typically, that you could look at, and that makes up 22 to 32% I've had to go higher, but 22 to 32 is a good range of the asset from five year and 15 year.

Keith Weinhold 29:42

All right, so really, the dividing line for Cost Segregation is stated as what is a permanent fixture and what is not permanent.

Steve Trussell 29:50

Yeah, probably in the general sense, yeah, I would say that. Well, are there any

Keith Weinhold 29:53

other things that one should know about a cost segregation study, whether that's myths or misunderstandings that need. To be cleared up, or just anything else at all. One needs to know about a cost segregation study. A couple

Speaker 3 30:05

things. One, the myth is that a lot of people think that it triggers audits that you're changing your accounting or you're getting this big bonus depreciation that's in the tax law, and so you're just taking advantage of the same zero to depreciation. Putting depreciation on your schedule, on your tax return, doesn't trigger audits. I mean, that's just buying property and you're putting it on the return. Accelerated depreciation doesn't either, because you do an engineered study. So part of the myth people think that they're going to call it, it's going to trigger an audit. It doesn't. It's a standard practice that accepted by the IRS and the study. The only thing that might, that might trigger isn't the agent. If they're doing an audit of your taxes, they might look at the study and say, Why did you classify this as this but this amount? Well, we go back through our data and our study through our software, and we could prove out how we came up with that value, and that's what they would ask. Is something like that, but it doesn't trigger an audit necessarily, just because you do a study. Second thing I've said this, I'll save all my clients. I said a couple times here, it's important that you can use it, that you can use the benefit. It does not do any good to go spend money for a study and get $131,000 appreciation, like I mentioned earlier, and it just sits there your w2 income, and you can't use it towards that that's far exceeds what you're making on your property. There's still a point in doing that until you can use it. There are other companies out there. They won't discuss that with you. They'll just tell you, you know, let's do a cost segregation study, because you get all these great benefits, but it doesn't do any good if you can't use it. Like I said that 131 be sitting on your depreciation schedule. That's bonus depreciation, but you're not able to do anything with it. If you're a high earner and you're not a real estate professional, you can't use it. So just be aware of that. If anybody brings a cost segregation study to you, and they don't discuss with you how it benefits you, I just be aware of that it's got to benefit you. What's the point if it doesn't

Keith Weinhold 31:57

that's a really great reminder you want to have this done the right way with someone that knows it can benefit you and more than offset the cost of the study. Maybe I should just bring up one example here of maybe a common turnkey property that a listener might buy that's not very high cost. Say that someone buys a fully rehabilitated, just $180,000 rental single family home built in the 1970s two bed, one bath. I'm sure there are some. It depends factors, but in general, would that be a candidate for a Cost Segregation if that were a new purchase for an investor?

Steve Trussell 32:35

I do it all the time, because it doesn't matter how old the property is. What matters is when you purchases. That's when your start date hits and or when you sell it to start date for the next person as well. So yeah, in that case, you're going to take roughly 15% for land. We go to the county website and see what they're using for land, and if they're using 6% that's what we'll use. But 15% is acceptable by the IRS. So in that case, 15% is what $27,000 so your 147 I think, would be your depreciable amount in it, 25% of that is 25 and almost $40,000 of depreciation versus an $1,800 study. And so if you're in a third step bracket, you're gonna save 12,000 in taxes and spend 1800 to save it. I mean, I would swap 1800 for 12,000 Gosh, any time. So, yeah, it would work. But then that comes down to, you know, you individually. What do you do for a living? What's your income? Like it would what level of income you're at. But can you use the 40,000 and celebrate depreciation? And that can be determined between a conversation with me, you and probably your CPA, so they know your tax situation the best, and then I really like the CPA to be involved. It's up to the client, but I'd prefer them to be involved so they know exactly what we're doing. Some CPAs aren't that familiar with it, so we can help them with getting this on the tax schedule. If they need us to on depreciation schedule, they really want the CPA to be involved if the client is comfortable with it because they know your tax situation the best. I can create the benefit for you. They can help you determine if you can use it.

Keith Weinhold 34:08

That's a good point. I would imagine that there are some tax preparers that have never seen this on one of their clients returns before, so that's a great help. And that was an awesome breakdown of just how things might actually look for someone. It just kind of has that most basic, low cost, 180k turnkey property. Steve, before I ask you if you have any last thoughts or anything else that the listeners should know if you want to connect with Steve, do that in the same way that you learn about our properties and our providers at GRE marketplace.com, click in the coaching area, your investment coach is going to help connect you with Steve all of his resources and adjacent resources that are helpful with you. Steve, is there any last thing that someone ought to know?

Speaker 3 34:50

I just think if you own property at all, it makes sense to get an estimate for cost segregation. It doesn't cost you anything. And then we could decide to. Together Again, like I said, along with your CPA, here's my benefit. Can I use it? And they cost you nothing to do that. Your CPA may charge you some time, I'm not sure, but working with me to get through the estimate phase up to the benefit, what's gonna look like for you that we do that for free, and so if you own any property, it makes sense to take a look at it or just have a phone conversation, because if you call me, you tell me, I make $300,000 a year. I'm a engineer, doctor, whatever it happens to be, and I work full time. My wife works full time. I'm probably gonna tell you, you know, you're probably not a candidate right now, because, like, we'd be a great benefit, but you can't use this great benefit right now. Let's revisit it when maybe you can. So it's just worth a phone conversation and you get me the data that I need, which is pretty simple stuff. I could put together an estimate before you turn it around and you decide, what if it makes sense for you?

Keith Weinhold 35:48

Yeah, if you have that conversation with Steve and worst case scenario, you can't use it, you better believe you're going to come off being pretty well informed in knowing the next time that you can use it, perhaps on your next purchase. Well, this has been supremely helpful, Steve. A lot of people are going to benefit from it. It's been great having you here on the show to talk about cost segregation.

Steve Trussell 36:09

I appreciate you having me. Thank you very much.

Keith Weinhold 36:17

Like Steve said, it's about 22 to 32% of the depreciable assets value, which is that house or building, not the land, can be deducted at an accelerated depreciation rate, faster than the 27 and a half year residential or 39 year Commercial depreciation rate. And Steve told me that before some investors even buy property, they will ask him how it would look with a cost segregation and hold on the numbers, and that way you can use it for your pro forma ROI calculation. Yeah, before you've even purchased a property, like I said, you can't have your Slack John uncle do a cost seg study. Plus your uncle is in slack jawed. Anyway. In fact, I'm the only slack jaw you've ever known. Now, I personally plan to send Steve a copy of my depreciation schedule so he can tell me how things would look for my properties. He can do this for you just the same. There is no charge. It's best to submit everything by mid March at the latest, if you file your taxes in mid April. So we are now in their busy season at GRE marketplace, that's where you do more than connect with our investment coaches and properties. There are also service providers, including Steve. Our coaches are there to help you optimize your ROI. This is a type of thing where if you think it's a good idea, you know you're probably not going to pick this up later if you don't move at the speed of instruction now. So if you think that it can benefit you from GRE marketplace.com, click in the coaching area. Get that set up, and we'll connect you to Steve and help you with anything else that you might need in your real estate portfolio. Until next week, I'm your host, Keith Weinhold, don't quit your Daydream.

Speaker 4 38:13

Keith Weinhold 38:41

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535: Single-Family Rentals vs. Apartment Buildings

Complete episode transcript:

Automatically Transcribed With Otter.ai

Keith Weinhold 0:02

Welcome to GRE. I'm your host. Keith Weinhold, we look at global home price change, the asset class rundown, then the homelessness crisis is mega bad. It just reached new, unprecedented levels, and real estate and inflation has a lot to do with the homelessness surge today on get rich education.

Speaker 1 0:28

Since 2014 the powerful get rich education podcast has created more passive income for people than nearly any other show in the world. This show teaches you how to earn strong returns from passive real estate investing in the best markets without losing your time being a flipper or landlord. Show Host Keith Weinhold writes for both Forbes and Rich Dad advisors, who delivers a new show every week since 2014 there's been millions of listener downloads of 188 world nations. He has a list show. Guess who? Top Selling personal finance author Robert Kiyosaki, get rich education can be heard on every podcast platform, plus it has its own dedicated Apple and Android listener phone apps build wealth on the go with the get rich education podcast. Sign up now for the get rich education podcast or visit get rich education.com

Corey Coates 1:13

You're listening to the show that has created more financial freedom than nearly any show in the world. This is get rich education.

Keith Weinhold 1:29

Welcome to GRE from Kent Washington to Tashkent, Uzbekistan and across 188 nations worldwide. I'm Keith Weinhold, and you are listening to get rich education. One reason for a not just national, but global, rise in real estate prices is that you can't fake it. Real property is not a derivative, yeah, you can't fake it. So this really emphasizes the word real in real estate. It's not a crypto within infinite supply. It's not an NFT. You can't fake construction. You can't fake real materials put into property, from concrete to kitchen cabinets. So in the year recently ended, as we catch up to global home prices and select nations, per Fitch Ratings. Let's do that because it was not just a US centric thing. In the Netherlands, the home price change last year was 13% you had that much appreciation in the Netherlands. Colombia, 10% Mexico up 9.3% Brazil had 8% home price appreciation. Australia, 5.2% Australia has just seen year over year home price appreciation for such a long time. The UK had 5% appreciation. Spain, 5% as well. The USA, 4% just like I predicted at the end of 2023 for 2024 It did indeed come in at 4% Canada also had exactly 4% home price appreciation last year, just like the USA did. Denmark 3% Italy and Japan each at two and a half percent. Germany home prices were up just one and a half percent. And France had home prices that fell 3% China had home prices that fell 7.8% that supply versus demand thing in China, where they massively overbuilt, that's why home prices are down there. And as I unveil the depths of the USS homelessness crisis later here on the show, you will see that, yeah, those appreciated real estate prices, like I just mentioned, they have a lot to do with it. Now you might think of the youngest generation, the generation after Gen Z, as generation alpha, and that is true. However, they are no longer the youngest generation, because the babies born on New Year's Day of this year not only got to be featured in feel good local news stories. You know what? They are, also the first members of generation, beta, yeah, which will include children born from 2025 through 2039 so that is the future and the future demographic that's going to demand housing. But first of all, let's look at a year that was yes for years here on the show, we have our asset class rundown shortly after most quarters end, and certainly after a year ends. And today is no different, and this is because at times you've got to compare real estate with the other investment options that are out there. We now have music to play for our asset class rundown feature each time for today and. Future shows. And I know the GRE sound engineer has got to like this. He's also a DJ dropit, Vedrand. Here is GRE 's asset class rundown for the 12 months of last year, residential real estate values were up 4% per the NARS. Single Family existing home price, like I said earlier, single family rents up about 2% per core logic, apartment rents pretty flat, down six tenths of 1% for the year per apartment list, office buildings were down in value 9% the 30 year fixed rate mortgage. It started last year at 6.6% everyone, I mean, everyone, thought that they would go lower, but nope, they ended at 6.9% a little higher. That's per Freddie Mac survey. The s5&p 100 index was up over 23% topping out at 6100 last year. That is the first time the s&p has been up 20% plus in back to back years since 1998 and the s&p is meant to represent 500 companies, but it has become so concentrated due to the rise of the Magnificent Seven stocks that its effective diversification is less than 60 stocks. Morgan Stanley just announced that they expect the SP500, 100 returns to be flat for the next decade due to lofty valuations. Do you know that since 2000 gold has outperformed the s&p last year, gold shot up from about $2,000 peaked near $2,800 and then ended up about 30% for last year, the yield on the 10 year T note was up 63 basis points last year, basically rising from four up to 4.6% by year end. What that means is that that signals higher inflation expectations. Bitcoin up an astounding 111% to end last year around 95k and it topped out at an all time high of 108k oil up just 2% to 72 bucks and a wild card for you. Through October, Bible sales were up 22% compared to the same period versus the previous year. That is GRE 's asset class rundown. It was.

This is get rich education. Let's drop back and do some learning before I update you on housing and the homelessness crisis. Now, a lot of Americans don't really know history that well, and not very many have a good financial education either. But you know, it is quite possible that even the next person you spot in a Trader Joe's aisle has heard of Adam Smith in his landmark 1776 book The Wealth of Nations. Did you know that Adam Smith is the one credited with actually inventing the very concept of supply and demand? Yeah, Adam Smith, a Scotsman is credited with that. He is known as the father of modern economics. You might have already known that. Well, of course, supply versus demand seems to be a more relevant concept than usual. Here with the housing shortage crisis, Adam Smith, he proposed the idea of what he called an invisible hand, that is the tendency of free markets to regulate themselves using competition, supply and demand and self interest, a Darwinian sort of struggle. Really, did you know that he also created the concept of gross domestic product? Yeah, prior to Adam Smith's work, most people considered a nation's wealth based on the amount of gold and silver reserves that they had stored. But Adam Smith said no, it's more about productivity quantified in this GDP in a lot of his work. It also discusses the evolution of human society from a hunter stage with no property rights and no fixed residences, to nomadic agriculture with shifting residences. And then the next stage after that is a feudal society, where laws and property rights are established to protect privileged classes. And finally, that modern society is characterized by laissez faire or free markets, so a good chunk of Adam Smith's work revolved around real estate. Now, the history of economics like that is a phrase that sounds boring. Maybe it is to some people, but as an investor, the least that you should know about Adam Smith's landmark book The Wealth of Nations from the year 1776 is that to review, he invented the supply demand concept. He created the GDP concept, and he championed free markets. That's something you're going to appreciate knowing in your investor life. And also supply demand, as I discussed that in the homelessness problem shortly.

we are a real estate show, and, you know, I just don't hear other real estate shows talk about, well, the unfortunate, I guess, absence of real estate in an increasing number of people's lives now, even if you have a home, learn about how homelessness is gonna make your life worse, too. In fact, it already has. I'm not sure if you've noticed, I will get into that as well. First listen to these two spots, freedom, family investments for an eight to 10% return on your liquid capital and Ridge lending group, they specialize in income property loans. They can really help you, and I would know, because I use them both my self. I'm Keith Weinhold. This is get rich education. Here you go.

Oh, geez, the national average bank account pays less than 1% on your savings, so your bank is getting rich off of you. You've got to earn way more, or else you're losing your hard earned cash to inflation. Let the liquidity fund help you put your money to work with minimum risk, your cash generates up to a 10% return and compounds year in and year out. Instead of earning less than 1% in your bank account, the minimum investment is just 25k you keep getting paid until you decide you want your money back. Their decade plus track record proves they've always paid their investors 100% in full and on time. And you know how I'd know, because I'm an investor in this myself earn 10% like me and GRE listeners are. Text family to66866, to learn about freedom. Family investments, liquidity fund on your journey to financial freedom through passive income. Text family to 66866

Ken McElroy 12:41

this is Rich Dad advisor, Ken McElroy. Listen to get rich education with Keith Weinhold, and don't quit your Daydream.

Keith Weinhold 12:57

Welcome back. You're listening to get rich education Episode 536, I'm your host. Keith Weinhold, it is bad. America just hit a record high homelessness number, and it is up double digits, over 18% in just one year. It is even worse when we look at family homelessness and the rise in that and gosh, get this unaccompanied youth homeless, meaning like a 15 year old kid homeless and drifting by themselves. And this is all in the most powerful nation in the world. And even if you have a home. Homelessness is gonna make your life worse, too. We'll also look at how Trump wants to address this. It is major. And finally, are there any solutions to the homelessness crisis in America today? Well, there are now over 771,000 homeless in America, that's up from 653k just last year. And yes, the homeless can be hard to count, but as long as the methodology stays the same, I mean, there you go with the 18% increase. And here's the thing from all the years, from 2007 to 2023, all 16 of those years, we only saw a total increase of 19% during that entire span, and now 18% in just one year this latest year. I mean, talk about exponential and accelerating homelessness growth. And before I tell you about why this is happening, let's get a better idea of the gravity of this sad situation here, and this is all from HUD's newly released annual homelessness assessment report to Congress among subgroups families with children saw the biggest increase as. At 39% year over year. You think that's sad, but consider how sad this is. Unaccompanied homeless children, they're up 10% in just a year, and that was only up 3.4% all of the previous 16 years combined. Veterans are the only group to see a decrease, and the number of homeless people over 65 so we're talking seniors here that is expected to almost triple by 2030 that is just five years away, and it is just widespread too. I mean, nearly no US geography is immune from this spike in homelessness, from Florida to Maine to California to Alaska. Now, even if you have a home, the shoes of that are pretty good, if you're listening to me, you know, why does this even make your life worse? Well, of course, first of all, homelessness can make your city blighted. But beyond that, just think about how many ways it's just changing your week in and week out routine. I mean, have you noticed, like, just take, for example, when you or I walk into some grocery stores anymore. I mean, I notice how different things are than they were just say, five years ago. I mean, you've got to notice some of these things now, more often than there was just a few years ago, there's an armed guard when you walk into a store near the entrance. Well, someone is paying for that security, whether it's the store passing the price along to you, or whether it's a government or municipality paying that, well, that's where your tax money goes. And what about when you're shopping the aisles of a supermarket, or, say, CVS? Well, now even kind of moderately priced items like bottles of moisturizer, they are under lock and key behind a Plexiglas case. That's inconvenient while you're shopping if you need to use the bathroom, oh, now you need to go get a key or learn the door code to access the bathrooms. That's inconvenient when you're done and as you walk out of the store now, they are more likely to have an attendant that checks your receipts on the way out, and this is just one example at the supermarket. I mean, so many of your patterns are changing due to poor people getting poorer, and the homelessness crisis, if you're in a rural area, it probably affects you less. But just take a look around and notice the change. We're not talking about the change from your parents era, but just in your own life over the past, say, three to five years, homelessness is not good for an area's crime rate either. I mean, it is not good to have desperate people, hungry people, these people have nothing to lose if you're homeless and you commit a crime and go to jail. Hey, that might be an upgrade for some people now you've got a warm, clean place to stay in jail. So now that you and I understand more about why this even affects you and I let's talk about why is homelessness growing at this alarming rate, well, higher prices for real estate, which really accelerated in 2021 and they are not going to relent. As I've said elsewhere, home prices are not going to go down in a meaningful way anytime soon as just three weeks ago. Here on our forecast episode, I forecast another 5% of national home price appreciation this year. And it's not just higher prices, it's higher rents. Rents really started taking off in 2021 as well. Well. Higher rents, that means more evictions, and an eviction is the start of homelessness for a lot of people. And a third reason for this surge in homelessness is just that overall lack of housing. I have covered that extensively elsewhere. Yes, the housing supply crisis, and as I'm known for saying, the housing crash already occurred. Did you miss it? It was a supply crash that occurred about five years ago, and a lot of agencies think we're under supplied by 3.7 million housing units. Now, when you look at the new HUD supplied map of homelessness by state, you can very much see that it is about housing, because those regions with the highest home prices generally have the most homelessness. We're talking about the Northeast, the West Coast and Hawaii. And the fourth reason for the homelessness surge is that, of course, inflation started accelerating about four years ago, and people just cannot make ends meet anymore. CPI inflation peaked at 9.1% back. In June of 2022 and year over year, prices are still going up 3% today. Prices are not going down. They're just rising at a slower rate. And of course, inflation hurts the poor and actually helps the wealthy, exacerbating the inequality Canyon the wealthy have assets. Those assets float up in value with inflation and the prices at the grocery store are just a tiny part of a wealthy person spending. But the poor don't own assets that float up with the inflation and higher grocery prices and things like electric bills, well, they comprise a big part of a poor person's income. And fifthly, the massive arrival of immigrants pushed up homeless numbers these past, oh, three or so years. And it remains to be seen how many of those people really get deported. And you know, a sixth reason for homelessness. It's not something new, it's what I'll call all of these background reasons that have been there for decades and are not going away, like how a medical emergency can even drain a middle class person's savings and things like ongoing substance abuse. I mean, drug users often cannot stay employed. So there you have it. What was that? Six big reasons that I've identified for surging homelessness now let's see what Donald Trump has to say and understand that, due to last June Supreme Court decision, Trump now has got more power to clear out encampments and make life for the homeless more difficult, opening the door now to be criminally charged for trespassing and illegal camping. I mean, you really don't want to be homeless today as part of what Trump calls his agenda 47 his plan to tackle homelessness. Here is his preamble.

Donald Trump 21:57

Our once great cities have become unlivable, unsanitary nightmares surrendered to the homeless, the drug addicted and the violent and dangerously deranged. We're making many suffer for the whims of a deeply unwell few, and they are unwell. Indeed, the homeless have no right to turn every park and sidewalk into a place for them to squat and do drugs. Americans should not have to step over piles of needles and waste as they walk down a street in a beautiful city, or at least once beautiful city, because they've changed so much over the last 10 years.

Keith Weinhold 22:40

So that's the problem. Here's the solution. I'll boil down the meat of the Trump agenda, 47 homeless statement to just the most salient 40 seconds for you here. Just listen to this, and as you listen in closely, note that this is not a housing first plan for the homeless. Instead, it's treatment first.

Donald Trump 23:03

Under my strategy, working with states, we will ban urban camping wherever possible. Violators of these bans will be arrested, but they will be given the option to accept treatment and services if they're willing to be rehabilitated. Many of them don't want that, but we'll give them the option. We will then open up large parcels of inexpensive land, bring in doctors, psychiatrists, social workers and drug rehab specialists, and create tent cities where the homeless can be relocated and their problems identified. But we'll open up our cities again, make them livable and make them beautiful.

Keith Weinhold 23:43

Okay, it's not housing first, because, see, he wants to ban urban camping, something that parallels the Supreme Court decision. What this is not is that it is not giving the homeless hotels in the city, like some cities have recently done, converting their hotels into homeless shelters. Instead, this is designating large parcels of cheap land for tent cities, but outside the urban core, like in a big grassy lot, and then bringing in social workers and rehab specialists for them, and that way, his solution is that this city is free of homeless people, and really that is the crux of Trump's plan. But what are some other solutions here? And these are now my insights, not Trump's, that is, build more housing. That's really simple. I mean, this will naturally slow down, accelerating home prices and spiking rents, and we've got to relax regulation and zoning. We had a zoning expert, Nolan gray on the show here last year. Some scholars believe that we should just eliminate zoning in America completely. And one. One way to relax regulation is to Gosh, revisit some of these over the top safety concerns. I mean, look, it increases the cost of the most basic entry level housing when every home needs to have all these thick, fire rated doors and smoke detectors all over the place, and carbon monoxide detectors everywhere, and GFCI electrical outlets all over the place. I mean, hey, it sounds kind of funny to say out loud, but all this stuff contributes to making affordable housing impossible. And another solution is that you've got to kill nimbyism in a lot of cases, yes, that not in my backyard. Ism, you know, a person can act like they're all pro development, and like they're all free market, and they want to have their home built just how they want it, where they want it, but you know what, as soon as their home was built, they don't want others moving near them, yeah, somehow the free market's not so great anymore, okay? And they sure don't want apartment buildings nearby. Well, that is what we need, allowing taller structures to be built. That is called up zoning. It doesn't have to be a gigantic apartment building either. We need more, mmm, properties, multi families, missing middle. That means building more two, three and four unit structures in single family neighborhoods, duplexes, triplexes, fourplexes, because a lot of those can be built so that they look like single family homes. But yet it's something affordable and it helps with density. Another solution to deal with homelessness is to, of course, bring down inflation. The government needs to stop printing, say, $1 trillion to pay for a program, whether that's sending aid to foreign nations or whatever that program is. When more dollars are created like that, it debases the currency everyone else is holding on to, including your dollars, and it makes everyone from landlords to grocers have to raise their prices. And you know, here's the funny thing in the last election for president that we had last year, well, that administration got voted out of office, and many say that the number one reason was due to high inflation, but yet, look at what they voted for with the incoming administration. Everyone expects higher inflation. So there's a real paradox there.

On our YouTube channel, you can watch videos of me going out outdoors and interviewing the homeless. In fact, I'm surprised at how many homeless let me into their tents, and they wanted to show me their makeshift shelters and tell me about their life. I mean, that's kind of the good news. They were open. They were friendly people. I think they really wanted that to get exposed, because they were hoping that people would see that to come do something for them. I think that's why they've been so open with me. So that was good on the flip side, oh gosh. One thing that they have in common is that they all seemingly want to blame somebody else for the condition that they're in other than themselves, like the government or including telling me that landlords are greedy. But it really is fascinating to see from our get rich education YouTube channel, which is different content from this show. Just search the word homeless there on the get rich education YouTube channel and you can see it.

Hey, I want to ask you something. What is your on ramp to real estate investing? Like, how did you approach it? Or how did you get into it? I mean, mine was as a disgruntled employee. That's it. I didn't come from a complimentary professional place. I mean, that's how I became an investor, and there was nothing wrong with my job position. Specifically, I worked with good people and everything. In fact, I had an easy and safe job, and it paid a little bit well. But, you know, safe is not the place to be. Safety is the opposite of freedom. As an employee, you know, I could see that 401 K type plans. They were designed so that you don't get income from them until you're old. It's a salary reduction plan all those working years as well. Well, no wonder that your employer encourages participation in them. That way they're going to keep you working as an employee until retirement, because that's when they're designed to generate income. But see my point here, really is that I did not have a complimentary skill set to real estate investing, and if you do, it can be to your advantage. So you know what I mean. Let's take a couple of friends of. The show here, Robert Helms, host of the terrific real estate guys radio show. He came from a real estate agent family. His dad was an agent. Well, that can help you find deals. How about Ken McElroy, another frequent guest on the show here, very successful real estate investor. Well, he was a property manager before he became a real estate investor, totally complementary skill set. And by the way, two months ago in New Orleans, I was invited to participate in a collective inner circle mastermind group session that Robert and Ken help run. That was cool, but getting back to complementary skill sets, Michael Becker, a former guest here on the show, he was a lender, so he got to see the paperwork of all these successful investors. So he became one himself. I mean, as a lender, you keep seeing savvy investors leverage themselves with debt and then do cash out refinances, a tax free windfall event, all while they keep the asset too well. He wanted to get in on some of that. And I also know real estate investors that started out as handymen, okay, a hands on trade that can totally help when you're starting out as a real estate investor. So do you have a complimentary skill set that can help make you a successful real estate investor. If you don't, then don't despair, because you know what? I don't have one myself. I was just a former employee that wanted something else. I don't have a complimentary skill set to real estate investing. No transferable professional skill. Instead of that, I just became a reader, but not a massive reader. Of course, I was a learner before I was a teacher. I enjoyed learning this stuff, and I also got a good grasp on the numbers and how that works. But importantly, my advantage was I take action, I just keep adding property to my portfolio. You just got to keep doing that, regardless of what's happening in the larger economy or what prices are or what interest rates are.

And as you know, last week, I discussed the advantages of owning and building with brand new build rental property today, and you know, new build and these build to rent properties, those are things that that really wasn't even available when I started out investing. Well, it wasn't. I mean, with new build, oh, your maintenance repair costs are going to be low. You tend to attract a high quality tenant that also tends to stay for a while. Insurance costs tend to be lower on new build. And there's a bigger advantage than all of that in the market cycle right now that I'll get into shortly. Well, historically, the long run average. Do you have any idea what proportion of homes for sale are new build homes? Any guess, like, what share of those homes are new? It's only about one in eight. Yeah, the Census Bureau and the NAR tell us that it's 13% historically. Okay, well, what do you think it is today? Well, today, that number is up. Existing homeowners, they're not selling those homes aren't getting on the market as often due to the lock in effect, and we have to add supply. So in order to do that, we are building more new there's just no other way to bring it to market. Well, today, the proportion of new build homes for sale among all homes for sale is fully double that, at 26% although we're still undersupplied of homes in the US by about 30% you know there are pockets where they've overbuilt with new builds, including in Florida and Texas. So the time could really be right to expand your income property portfolio in one of those places, because builders that we work with at GRE marketplace are really willing to give you a deal now you've got them right where you want them if you're looking for a deal. How does a four and three quarter percent interest rate sound? Yes. Rates on non owner occupied property are about eight right now. They're about seven on owner occupied property, but we've got builders willing to buy your rate down to 4.75% and they're also offering one year of free property management and three months of rent guarantee protection in case your property is not occupied right away. The first one is a brand new build duplex in Inverness, Florida, two beds, two baths, each side, price of 420k projected rent from both sides at $2,830 and the size is 2100 square feet. I mean the. That sounds like it could make your cash flow thin, until you consider that 4.75% fixed mortgage rate the property tax is about one and a half percent and insurance get this projected at just $1,155 a year for an entire new build duplex, and now you might ask, what could the rate of return be on this Florida duplex new build? Well, I projected 5% appreciation for this year. New builds tend to appreciate better than existing property, but let's just use 5% if you have a 25% down payment, that's four to one leverage. So you've got a 20% return on your money. And let's just keep it conservative. When we look at monthly cash flow, that results in a 5% cash on cash return. Add that to your 20% leverage appreciation, you're up to a 25% ROI already. Add in the fact that your tenant is paying down your principal for you by $405 every month. That's 4860 annually, divided by your 105k down payment. That means you've got another four and a half percent return here. Let's just call it four. You're up to a 29% total ROI we haven't even added in yet, your tax depreciation benefit, and now you're up to a return in the mid 30s. Finally, your inflation profiting benefit on your fixed amortizing debt, and you are well into the 40s for a percent return on an annual basis. And of course, most of these are only projections. It could disappoint you at 30 or less, still a nice return, or it could over perform at 50% or more. I mean, this right here is how wealth is built. I mean, this is how you do something that disrupts your entire family tree that was the new build duplex. Then I'll share one other one with you. Here from GRE marketplace. Is a single family rental. This one is in Locust Grove, Georgia. Gosh, it looks really good in the photo here with a two car garage and some brick facing, its price is 339k rent is 2350 The size is 2164 square feet, so only a little bigger than the duplex here in this new build, Georgia, single family rental, four beds, two baths, beautiful looking new construction on the inside, open floor plan, stainless steel appliances, I can't tell whether the floor is LVP or wood laminate, but it's got a flooring type that's resilient, that tenants like, and your rate of return is going to be similar to the duplex ROI that I laid out, though probably not quite as high as the duplex. I mean, with these interest rate buy downs, these could very well be the property types where, in just five years time, maybe even as little as two or three years time after owning them, you look back and you consider how opportunistic you work in this part of the market cycle where there are now more new builds that you can choose from, and a builder was willing To make you a deal to keep their product moving, because they build a little too much in some pockets of Florida, for example. So yes, these and more like them are available, and there are more in Florida, Georgia, Alabama and a number of other states. And you know, something I don't think I shared with you earlier, it's convenient. You can get a spot with one of our GRE investment coaches right on their calendars, you can look at their calendar and pick a date and time that's convenient for you. For a free coaching session, they will learn about you. They'll let you know where the real deals are, if they're right for you at all, all you've got to do is visit GRE marketplace.com, and click on the free investment coaching area. There you are with some real opportunities and an actionable resource. Until next week, I'm your host. Keith Weinhold, don't quit your Daydream.

Speaker 2 39:17

Keith Weinhold 39:45

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Direct download: GREepisode536_.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 4:00am EST

Mon, 6 January 2025

Keith discusses the pros and cons of investing in single-family rentals versus apartment buildings.

He highlights that less than 10% of U.S. building materials are imported, reducing the impact of tariffs.

Single-family rentals offer better tenant quality, lower vacancy rates, and higher appreciation potential. They also have lower financing costs and are more divisible.

Conversely, apartment buildings offer economies of scale and lower per-unit maintenance costs.

He emphasizes the importance of owning more property, especially new-builds, which offer lower insurance premiums and attractive financing options

Work with expert investment coaches to find the best off-market deals and maximize your returns.

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534: Rising Prices Lead to Social Decay with Doug Casey

Complete episode transcript:

Automatically Transcribed With Otter.ai

Keith Weinhold 0:01

welcome to GRE. I'm your host. Keith Weinhold, talking about how most home building materials are US sourced and not affected by tariffs, the little understood pros and cons of investing in apartment buildings versus single family rental homes, then what really makes sense to invest in in this particular era and more today on Get Rich Education.

Speaker 1 0:28

since 2014 the powerful get rich education podcast has created more passive income for people than nearly any other show in the world. This show teaches you how to earn strong returns from passive real estate investing in the best markets without losing your time being a flipper or landlord. Show Host Keith Weinhold writes for both Forbes and Rich Dad advisors and delivers a new show every week since 2014 there's been millions of listener downloads of 188 world nations. He has a list show, guess who? Top Selling personal finance author Robert Kiyosaki, get rich education can be heard on every podcast platform, plus it has its own dedicated Apple and Android listener phone apps build wealth on the go with the get rich education podcast. Sign up now for the get rich education podcast or visit get rich education.com

Corey Coates 1:13

You're listening to the show that has created more financial freedom than nearly any show in the world. This is get rich education.

Keith Weinhold 1:29

Welcome GRE from Tallahassee, Florida to Waxahachie, Texas and across 188 nations worldwide. I'm Keith Weinhold, and you are inside, G, R, E, we are here for you every Monday, without fail, 52 weeks a year, and we have never replayed an old episode either, always original content. Thanks for being here, but you're not here for me. You are here for you as another year dawns before we get into the meaty real estate content of today's show, including single family rentals versus apartments. Take a moment to check in with your own goals. Maybe you think about that is just buying your first investment property, or maybe you own 83 rental units, and you're looking to get to 100 this year. But no matter really real estate is just the fuel for your goal. It's probably not the end goal itself is your goal to have the time freedom to watch all of your kids basketball games this year. What about beyond this year? Are you really dreaming big enough you've got to question yourself on that sometimes, for example, forget flying first class. What if you want to own your own private jet, like Taylor Swift's luxurious Dassault 7x jet for $54 million? how about real estate fueling a dream that's even bigger than that? Yet, last month, the Philadelphia Eagles received the NFL approval for the sale of an 8% interest of the team to two different family investors. Okay, do you find say that interesting owning part of a major pro sports team. And by the way, what would something like that look like for you? I mean, do you even have the headspace to conceive of such a thing? It's good to ask yourself questions like this. Sometimes that sale was based on a valuation of the team of up to $8.3 billion and yet, after all that, the Eagles owner Jeffrey Lurie, he still maintains complete control of the team. Okay, so if each of the two family investors got a 4% interest at this valuation, that is up to a $332 million investment for each family. Maybe that could be a Weinhold the family goal. We'll see about that one. And you know, when it comes to making yourself a bigger you and dreaming a bigger dream, I like to listen to what the doers say. I found it so interesting in a Jeff Bezos interview at the deal book Summit, Bezos said it's human nature to overestimate risk and underestimate opportunity. Bezos also said entrepreneurs would be well advised to try and bias against that piece of human nature, the risks are probably not as big as you perceive, and the opportunities may be bigger than you perceive. That's the end of what bezel said. I really think that that's spot on stuff. now two weeks ago, when I gave GREs national home price appreciation forecast for this year. You might remember that I said that potential Trump tariffs just don't matter as much as people think when it comes to real estate. And understanding more about why I say this, it can help you understand real estate materials and sourcing and home building in the United States, America's overwhelming majority of sourced building materials are not imported, so therefore something like a supply chain bottleneck that's more worth watching, really. It's a huge misunderstanding of the home building market to assume that most building materials come from overseas. They do not, not even 10% of residential construction building materials are imported. The National Association of Home Builders will tell you so. And really, the majority of those few imports that do come from elsewhere, they come from, Canada in the form of timber. You might have heard about that before. Now, there are some things like finishes and fixtures that get sourced from, oh, various other countries, but yeah, the biggest potential tariff expense impacting home builders would come from enacting a cost on Canadian lumber. But I and a lot of economists as well, they're pretty skeptical that the administration would really enact a tariff on a close ally like that, on Canada's raw materials. In fact, Chief Economist Lawrence Yoon of the NAR he conceded that even potential lumber tariffs, they might be given a phasing in period, and that would encourage American timber mills to fill in any production gap. It's also important to you know, remember that doors, windows, cabinets that builders utilize, they are typically produced within us, borders. Windows, doors, cabinets made domestically, unless it's something that relies on raw materials that are imported, they ought to be little affected by tariffs. One example is that kitchen sinks now they largely went from being sourced in China, then Malaysia, then Indonesia, and one main customer is now talking about sourcing them out of Mexico or the Dominican Republic. So there are a few things that less than 10% that's imported. Another imported item is flooring, which moved away from China, went to India for a while, went a little bit back to Brazil, and now more is being sourced by Ecuador. But the important thing to remember is that these are outlier components. Not even 10% of residential construction building materials are imported. That's what you want to remember, concrete, us, rebar, us. So you know, as a real estate investor, you can feel good that as your portfolio grows, each one of your properties was chiefly built with us, labor that you already knew, but it is also built predominantly with us, materials as well. How likely are single family rental investors to say that they want to buy more investment property this year. Well, year ago, 60% of them said that. Today it is up to 76% yes, that many say that they are either likely or very likely to buy single family rental property in the next 12 months, and that same group that was surveyed is also unlikely to sell their property, and they also said that they are more likely to raise the single family rent this year. And all this is according to a joint lending one resi club survey. However, most fall in the range of raising the rent between just 1% and 6% this year, so pretty modest rent increases. In fact, in every region of the US, the majority of single family rental investors describe their rental market as either strong or very strong. But can you guess the weakest region? Okay, this region is the one that still has a majority of landlords that say that their market is strong, but yet the weakest of them all is the South West, and that is largely due to over building and in the survey, what expense increased the most the past 12 months? Well, number one is that 37% of respondents these landlords said it is still insurance premiums. Second place was that 23% say property taxes are increasing the most. And then third was. And 21% say that maintenance and repair costs have increased the most for them. So the top three expenses cited expense increases that is in order, are insurance, property tax, and then maintenance and repairs. And a few weeks ago, I discussed with you, you might remember about how upgrading or remodeling a unit that helps you in at least five different ways simultaneously. Let me talk about this, since I touched on raising the rent and a little comprehension test here. Do you remember what those five ways are? the five ways your help by upgrading or remodeling a unit. And no, these are not the famed real estate pays five ways when you upgrade a vacant unit for rent, or at times, you can even actually upgrade a unit while the tenant is still occupying the property, if it's not a disruptive upgrade type. Okay, I mean, sometimes that tenant can be appreciative that they're getting an upgrade while they live there, but the five ways that upgrading a unit helps you are, first, well, obviously it helps you be able to get more rent in cash flow. Secondly, you tend to attract a higher quality tenant. And then in a five plus unit apartment building, it also increases your noi, therefore a greater overall property value. Fourth is pride of ownership. And then fifth is that higher rents help you offset those erstwhile higher operating expenses.

And here's the thing, when you get free help from one of our GRE investment coaches, like you can do at GRE marketplace.com those properties are either already extensively renovated or they are completely brand new build. So because of that fact, this means that from day one, your rent income is already optimized. You already have the best chance of landing a quality tenant, and you get some sense of having a pride of ownership. And all of those things, they're already optimized for you. You don't have to tinker with anything else, because those GRE marketplace properties, more than 95% of them are either renovated or new build. I would say, using properties conducive to the BRRRR method, they would be the few exceptions there and on GRE marketplace, you can find lower cost renovated single family homes, up to million dollar apartment buildings, either new or renovated. And another pro tip here to help you with something actionable in a premium place to source your growing income property portfolio. You've heard me mention them before, is mid south home buyers, but I'll tell you more about what's going on with them. Yeah, they're an especially good place to add your portfolio if you either haven't invested outside of your home market before, or you don't have as much liquidity right now, because their prices are just 100 to 180k they are still in that range. And yes, that 100 to 180k that is indeed the entire capital price for the asset. So that means down payment and closing costs being about 25% therefore it's just 25k to 45k Yes, you can still get started for that little with a wonderfully renovated property in either Memphis or Little Rock. Those are the two markets where mid south home buyers operates, and they are some of the most investor advantage markets in the entire nation. And then the US is one of the most investor advantage markets in the world. And last month, I met and spoke with a 19 year old guy that lives in Dallas, and he just bought his first ever investment property from mid south home buyers in Memphis. And in fact, it was his goal to have his first income producing property at age 18, and he bought it the day before he turned 19, so he barely met that goal. But yeah, they are total pros at mid south they've been doing it for over two decades. They say that they are the nation's highest rated turnkey property provider. They might even be the first provider in the nation, if you like. They also manage the property for you, and their property managers are really aware that their investors, like you, seek a return on investment, so they often have a line a waiting list. To get their properties. Last I checked the line at mid south had shortened globally attractive cash flows an A plus rating with a better business bureau, and they've now renovated over 5000 houses. And over there, they do a lot of things with their management that you just wish every provider would do, there is zero markup on maintenance. Their average occupancy rate is almost 99% average renter stays more than three and a half years. And you know that three and a half years, that duration of tenancy that could be poised to go even higher now, with the affordability crisis for these want to be first time homebuyers now, most of what mid south has are single family rentals, quite a few duplexes too. Every home has brand new components, a full one year warranty, bumper to bumper, new 30 year roofs. And then the really important part expect a high quality renter that they screen and find in place for you. So let me give you an example of two real properties. And now, if these two aren't under contract already, they probably soon will be, since I'm mentioning them. And of course, duplexes cost more than single family rentals. This duplex is in Jacksonville, Arkansas. It's just northeast of Little Rock. It is 913 and 915 Ruth Ann drive, the combined rent from both sides is $1,775 the all in cost is about 210k 2099, in total, it's 1600 square feet. So 800 square feet each side, it's two bed, one bath each side. The Property taxes are really low, $1,300 a year, really nicely renovated with good quality materials. I mean, I love owning properties like this all day. So that's a duplex in the Little Rock market. Another one from mid south is this, Memphis single family rental. The address is 400 Bonita drive. It is $1,200 rent on a $148,100 purchase price. Gosh, those numbers work. This single family rental is three bed one and a half bath, 1164 square feet. Gosh. Again, low property tax in these regions, just $1,120 annually. All right, so that property tax rate is just three quarters of 1% of the purchase price. So really low on a national basis, a big backyard, eat in kitchen, separate laundry room, walking distance to schools. I mean, this is the type of property a tenant family could live in for five or 10 years, beautifully renovated. And I'm bringing these up because these are all at prices that Metro New Yorkers or coastal Californians can barely believe. So each property has hundreds of dollars of projected positive monthly cash flow. Each one increases your income 2000 to $5,000 per year. And I have personally toured mid south home buyers office in Memphis and their properties in person in Memphis. And I've seen their properties in each stage. I walked a tear down that they were doing, and I saw all the debris in the backyard. And I have seen their hardwood floors shine inside newly renovated property that I walked with both Terry and Liz from over there at Mid South. She is a pretty popular and extremely knowledgeable woman there. Liz, you can ask for her or one of her team members about getting on the list over there. Yes, these are 100k to 180k already renovated. Yes, that's truly the all in price, and they are in decent, working class pride of ownership neighborhoods in Memphis, Tennessee and Little Rock, Arkansas. And a lot of people get their start in investing there, I suspect it's now in the hundreds, with the number of GRE listeners that have bought from them. But even veteran investors, with dozens of units, they scoop up properties from them due to the low prices, some even pay gasp, all cash, yes, no leverage for them. And mid south homebuyers has investor tours monthly, where they load everyone on a bus, and you can check out the properties, because they are really proud of what they offer there coming up next, I'm comparing single family rental investments to apartments. But yeah, right there. That was a pro tip that really ought to help you out. Expect cash flow from day one. A 19 year old is doing it. You can start yourself at mid south homebuyers.com. More next. I'm Keith Weinhold. You're listening to get rich education.

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Kathy Fettke 21:55

you this is the real wealth network's Kathy Fettke, and you are listening to The always valuable get rich education with Keith Weinhold.

Keith Weinhold 22:12

Keith, welcome back for the 535th week in a row you are listening to get rich Education. I'm your host, Keith Weinhold, and I'm really grateful to have you here if you self manage your properties. One software that can really simplify your life is called Hemlane, H, E, M, as in Mary, l, a, n, e, Hemlane. You might have heard about it before. I now know quite a few people that use it. It's been getting some really good reviews. You can manage your properties from anywhere, even through your phone. And Hemlane has got some really good integrations, and now it's more than just investors like you that are using it. Agents and property managers are using Hemlane too, from advertising to tenant screening to maintenance and repair and accounting, and I just learned that they recently got all of the state specific lease agreements integrated on their platform as well. That's why it was on top of mind. If you prefer to self manage and you want to make it easier, what you can do is book a free demo and they show you how it works. Over there, it's just hemlane.com where you can do that if you like. Let them know that I told you about it.

Before I share something else actionable with you, let's do some learning and talk about apartment buildings and single family rental properties, and compare the two, some pros and cons of each. And perhaps the most obvious advantage of apartment buildings is their economies of scale. A 12 unit apartment only has one roof to maintain and one insurance policy to maintain. Another efficiency is that shared common areas and plumbing and HVAC systems that can lower your individual maintenance costs on a per unit basis as well in those apartments. And right now, at this time in the mid 2020s, decade, another advantage of apartments is that this time in the cycle is where values are just about bottoming out. Apartment buildings in a lot of national regions have fallen 20% fallen, 25% or even fallen 30% or more from their highs that were seen two to three years ago, and that's due to those higher interest rates. And the reason that this is an advantage for apartments is that you might be able to buy low, buy the dip, apartment cap rate. Have settled in the mid five range. Now, well located Class A has dropped back into the fours. Long time investors already know about some of the advantages, but you know, even some long time investors, they often overlook some of the advantages that single family rental properties have over apartments. So let me share some of those with you. Now, as you know, I started off with my first two investment properties, both being four Plex buildings, and then after that, I added larger apartment buildings and single family rental properties, and I still do buy and own single family rentals. So let me tell you about why I love them. They might have the best risk adjusted return anywhere even after 2008 great recession. Those that bought single families for cash flow persevered with single families. You get a better quality of tenant than you do in apartments. They take care of the premises. They tend to be in a better neighborhood. Single families tend to appreciate better over time, and are also more likely to be in a better school district. Single families have a retention advantage. Tenants stay longer, and that creates less vacancy and expense, and the reason that they do stay longer are those aforementioned neighborhood and school district characteristics, common areas. You know, single family rentals, they don't have any common areas that you have to clean and maintain. I think I pointed that out to you before, because that's like an overlooked profit drag that I missed when I bought my first larger apartment building. Yeah, apartments have hallways and stairs and laundry rooms and commonal door grounds that a custodian has got to service. Single families have an advantage when it comes to utility payments, because tenants often pay all of the utilities and they even care for the lawn. The larger the apartment building is, the more likely that you are going to be the one paying the utility costs. Then there's divisibility. What if you've got a property that's underperforming out there and it just isn't meeting your expectations? Well, if you had, say, 10 single family rental homes, you can sell off the one or the two that aren't performing, but yet, with a 10 unit apartment building, you've either got to keep them all or sell them all. It is not divisible. What about fire and pestilence, something a lot of people don't talk about? I mean fire and pests. They are more easily controlled in single family rentals, even if you're adequately insured, these conditions often affect multiple units and families. They can spread in an apartment building. Financing is a huge one income single family homes, they have both lower mortgage interest rates than apartments and typically lower down payment requirements than apartments. I think you already know you can secure 10 single family rental loans, single 20 if you're married at the best rates and terms through Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac with just 20% down payments, you can even go less than 20% on non owner occupied in some cases, but apartments rarely, if ever, have 30 year fixed rate terms like single family rentals do, and this right here in particular, that really started bringing down a lot of apartment investors, beginning in 2022 and 2023 when their interest rates reset much higher, doubling, or even more than doubling. How about vacancy rate? It is true that if your single family is vacant, then your vacancy rates 100% if your say four Plex has one vacancy, well then your vacancy rates only 25% but yeah, the same is true if you own four single family rentals and one is vacant. How about management? If you hire professional management, your manager would likely rather deal with higher quality, single family residence. And if you're self managing, this is a demographic of people that you would likely rather handle yourself. Then there's supply and demand, there just absolutely still are not enough low cost, single families that make the best rentals nationally, demand still exceeds supply. That's the opposite condition for apartments, and this is something that's going to continue in the short and the medium term market risk that is an overlooked criterion. You've got to keep your properties filled with rent paying tenants that have jobs. If you think you'll be able to buy 10 rental units in the near future, well, your 10 unit apartment building that's only going to be in one location, and that's going to leave you exposed to just one geography's economic fortunes. But if you have 10 single families, you could have four of them in Central Florida, three of them in Fort Worth Texas, and three of them in Memphis. And you got to think about exit strategy. A lot of people don't think about this. Think about the exit before you even get in, because years down the road, when it's time to sell your income property, hopefully, after you've had years of handsome profits, and real estate pays five ways and all of that, you know what? Down the road, there is going to be a greater buyer pool for your single family rental than your apartment building. In almost every case, more buyers can afford the lower price, and unlike apartments, you even have access to a pool of buyers that might want to occupy the single family rental themselves. It might even be your current tenant that buys it, but the market and the numbers have to make sense for someone to want to buy an apartment building, but if an owner occupant buys it from you, that family doesn't have to have any numbers that make sense. So your single family rental is more liquid on your exit and professional management, that's another reason that single families can make sense. Because see single family rentals, they can be spread all over a metro area diffusely, and if you self manage, that is a lot of little trips that can get to be a hassle. But if you use a pro manager, well, they're the ones that have to manage the scattered sites. And a lot of times, managers don't charge you much more to handle your single families than they do your apartment buildings. So right now, there were a ton of advantages, a good 15 or 20 advantages there that single family rentals have over apartment buildings. And it's important I discuss them, because there are a lot of investors that don't factor all of those in. Even veteran investors tend to overlook some of those things. Again, I really like apartment buildings as well. They could very well be my second favorite investment to single family rentals, and I would like to now, with that understanding, really say something that I probably don't say quite often enough if you want to benefit from all these wealth building forces here that I've talked to on the show for for more than 10 years. You need to own more property, or get started with your first property.

Now I've already given you one great resource for that. And yes, what do they say? The turtle never got ahead until he stuck his neck out. Now the uncertainty, I mean uncertainty. That's just that condition that never completely abates. But in a sense, I think you can say today that the future is already here because we've got substantially more economic certainty and political certainty than we have had in recent years. The presidency was decided peacefully. Recession fears have abated. The Fed after screwing up with high inflation a few years ago, they have now engineered a soft landing, meaning lower inflation with still high employment. So now is a good time. What about real estate prices? I'll tell you something about that all of my investor life, every single property that I've ever bought, without exception, it felt aggressively priced at the time, and then, typically, it always happens when as little as one year or two years goes by, it already looked like a good decision. And I'd like to encourage you to do something else in this era, if you can swing it, buy new build property. That's something that wasn't always true. They do cost more. It's probably going to be 300k plus for a new build rental, single family home, but either way, be sure to own more property, existing or new benefit from what we talk about now. In some parts of the nation, including Florida, builders built a few too many properties, and they are willing to give you a discount for that. They might even cut the price a little and give you a rate discount, buying down discount points for you so that you can get a mortgage loan interest rate in the fives or even in the fours on new build income property right now in a volatile insurance market, new builds also have some super low insurance premiums because the property is built to today's more stringent codes. I mean, a. Just put an example out here. If you say, buy 10 rental, single family homes for $3 million total, 10 properties, 300k each. Okay, it's just 5% appreciation, which is what I projected for this year in our home price appreciation forecast. Two weeks ago, on $3 million worth of property, that's 150k per year, every year growing that you can pull out of the properties completely tax free. But to get that 150k per year tax free, you would have only had to make a 750k down payment and closing costs 25% on this that's not even counting the cash flow that the properties generate, plus your loan, of course, is simultaneously being paid down by tenants. And on top of that, inflation would just relentlessly debase your two and a quarter million dollars of fixed rate debt. Yes, all while the appreciation and the cash flow occurs, inflation debases your debt by another $67,500 every single year, and your tenant pays down some more principal on top of that. And then there are the other tax benefits too. And this is where you are massively getting ahead. All right, that was a $3 million portfolio, but if you can only do 1/10 of that own, just say one more new build, 300k single family rental, then you get 1/10 of those benefits that I mentioned, and either way, a total return on investment of 30% or more annually that is achievable. It's actually even conservative. I mean, just with the 5% appreciation, with four to one leverage, that's a 20% return just on the appreciation component alone.

And our GRE investment coaches can make this real for you. They can talk to you about these properties and others, including those mortgage rate buy downs into the fives and the fours properties in investor advantage markets in Ohio, Indiana, Illinois, Pennsylvania, Georgia, Oklahoma, Texas, Florida, Alabama, Mississippi, Tennessee, Arkansas and some others. In fact, let me give you two examples of what our investment coaches can help you with right now. This is pretty fun, actually, as I talk about these properties, because you might even end up owning the ones that I discuss right here on the show. The first of two is a brand new build, single family in Palma Coast, Florida. Gosh, it's a ranch home. Really good looking. Two car garage, is what I'm looking at here. It's 1200 square feet, three, bed, two, bath. It's called the Bing model, and it's got the type of layout that tenants really want today. I mean, your resident could stay there for a long time. $2,100, in rent for a purchase price of $289,900 I mean those numbers, along with the mortgage rate buy down to four and a half percent, plus new build insurance premiums that are going to be low. That really works today. That is really attractive there in Palm Coast, Florida. And the last one I'll mention is an older single family rental in Canton, Ohio. Yes, that's the home of the Pro Football Hall of Fame. The address is 2422 6th Street, Northwest in Canton. Rent of 1225, and a purchase price of just $135,000 The size is 1036 square feet, and it is four beds, one and a half baths. The renovations really look quite good. As you recall, those benefits of buying property that's already renovated, like I discussed earlier, all for 135k in today's market. So these properties and so many more like them, that's what our investment coaches can help you with. Their service is always completely free, but first what they do is they learn a little about you, and they can then put together an entire investment real estate portfolio for you, if you like. So they'll assess and evaluate what you've got, where you want to go, what property types are conducive to aligning with your strategy, and are there any best geographies for you? And more. So it's really important to stay in touch with your coach. I mean, we might find out, for example, tomorrow, that a home builder that we work with decided to offer some massive mortgage rate buy down incentives for you because, say, they built too much. So I really encourage you to set up that touch point for the first time, or to stay in touch and see what's happening, free coaching off market opportunities, and it's easy to set up a short meeting over the phone or on zoom with an investment coach. You can do that at GRE marketplace. It really can be quite a life changing venture for you from GRE marketplace.com just click on the coaching area until next week. I'm your host. Keith Weinhold, don't quit your Daydream.

Speaker 2 40:49

Keith Weinhold 41:09

The preceding program was brought to you by your home for wealth, building, getricheducation.com.

Direct download: GREepisode535_.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 4:00am EST

Mon, 30 December 2024

Discover how inflation is destroying the value of your money and eroding the ethical foundations of society. Legendary author Doug Casey reveals the insidious ways rising prices lead to social decay, unethical behavior, and the breakdown of trust.

Learn how to protect your prosperity by shifting away from the falling dollar and into real assets like gold, real estate, and carefully selected investments.

Don't let inflation rob you - get the insights you need to thrive in this challenging economic environment.

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533: GRE's 2025 Home Price Appreciation Forecast

Complete episode transcript:

Automatically Transcribed With Otter.ai

Keith Weinhold 0:01

Welcome to GRE. I'm your host. Keith Weinhold, inflation does not mean rising prices. Inflation is an expansion of the money supply which results in rising prices, and it leads to wider societal decay and moral breakdowns in ways that you've never thought about before. It misdirects inflation frustration toward people like housing providers and grocers, we explore it today on get rich education.

Mid south home buyers, I mean, they're total pros, with over two decades is the nation's highest rated turnkey provider. Their empathetic property managers use your ROI as their North Star. So it's no wonder that smart investors just keep lining up to get their completely renovated income properties like it's the newest iPhone. They're headquartered in Memphis and have globally attractive cash flows and A plus rating with a better business bureau and now over 5000 houses renovated. There's zero markup on maintenance. Let that sink in, and they average a 98.9% occupancy rate, while their average renter stays more than three and a half years. Every home they offer has brand new components, a bumper to bumper, one year warranty, new 30 year roofs. And wait for it, a high quality renter. Remember that part and in an astounding price range, 100 to 180k. I've personally toured their office and their properties in person in Memphis, get to know Mid South. Enjoy cash flow from day one. Start yourself right now at mid south homebuyers.com that's mid south homebuyers.com

you know, whenever you want the best written real estate and finance info. Oh, geez. Today's experience limits your free articles access, and it's got paywalls and pop ups and push notifications and cookies disclaimers. It's not so great. So then it's vital to place nice, clean, free content into your hands that adds no hype value to your life. That's why this is the golden age of quality newsletters, and I write every word of ours myself. It's got a dash of humor, and it's to the point because even the word abbreviation is too long, my letter usually takes less than three minutes to read, and when you start the letter, you also get my one hour fast real estate video. Course, it's all completely free. It's called the Don't quit your Daydream letter. It wires your mind for wealth, and it couldn't be easier for you to get it right now. Just text GRE to 66866, while it's on your mind, take a moment to do it right now. Text GRE to 66 866.

Speaker 1 3:12

you're listening to the show that has created more financial freedom than nearly any show in the world. This is get rich education.

Keith Weinhold 3:28

We are the GRE from Albany, New York to New Albany, Ohio, and across 188 nations worldwide. I'm your host, Keith Weinhold, and this is get rich education. You have probably heard it been said by now that money must have three attributes. It is a store of value, a medium of exchange and a unit of account. The US Dollar does not meet the first one store of value. That's due to inflation. How is the dollar a store of value, it is not so then the dollar is a mere currency, not money. You can make the case that gold is a store of value, maybe that Bitcoin is, although it's got a short track record and it's a volatile ride the S, p5, 100, you could say that's nothing more than a store of value long term. When you understand all the drags on it, you're only treading water long term with the s, p, I've discussed that on shows earlier this year. That leaves real estate as not just a good long term, stable store a value, but when it's done right, it is the vehicle where inflation actually increases your purchasing power. And here's a new way to think about it, money is your time and energy captured in an abstracted form for the government to take out debt. They are borrowing your time and energy. Government debt is the closest thing we've ever seen to time travel.They're borrowing the collective time and energy from your future. How do you achieve time travel? You borrow human time and energy from the future currency debasement steals the time and energy of you and everyone alive today. That's why you've got to protect yourself. And what this does is that it actually increases your time preference. Yeah, the term time preference, that's something that Bitcoin authors like Dr saifedean Amos often use time preference and actually think that it's sort of a confusing term. Time preference, though, it sounds like a good thing, it's actually a bad thing. It means that you would rather consume now and over consume now instead of later. Having a high time preference means that you want to all out, ball out right now, and not consider your future. Well, that's what inflation does whenever you see the term time preference out there. I think the best way for you to remember what that means is think of it instead as a now preference. I think now preference is more intuitive than time preference. Teach me how to Dougie, yes, we've got public figure and mega popular author Doug Casey back with us today to discuss how rising prices lead to social decay and makes humans have a higher time preference resultantly, I guess that is teaching us how to Dougie. Yes, indeed, that is a reference to that, like 15 year old song, teach me how to Dougie, and we would drop some bars of that song right now. Oh, you know that me and the team here, we really want to, but we would probably have some royalty issues with that one here, and I'll tell you that is such a stupid song. Teach me how to Dougie, but at the same time, once you've heard it, the next thing that you want to do is hear it again somehow. But it's pretty likely that Doug Casey and I have some more important things to talk about. So fortunately for you, rather than discuss a 2010, rap song any further, we're going to discuss how rising prices lead to social decay.

Monetary inflation is even worse than you think. This era's rising prices and falling values actually lead to social decay. Villains and unethical actors are getting rewarded and they're stealing from you. We're going to discuss just how the international man himself, a legendary and generationally popular author, is back with us for a sobering look at inflation and social decay today. Hey, welcome back in. Doug Casey.

Doug Casey 8:04

Nice to talk to you, Keith. I'm speaking to you at the moment from my farm in Uruguay, which is one of the, I would say, two, most stable countries in Latin America, and one of the two or three most stable countries in the Western Hemisphere, there's a lot of real estate in the world, other than in the US. And I know that you mostly talk about real estate. I've actually done a lot of real estate too, all around the world, in the Orient and in Europe and South America, and, of course, a lot in the US and Canada. So I'm generally friendly to real estate, and it's been very, very good to me.

Keith Weinhold 8:44

Well, you're truly living up to the International Man moniker again today, joining us from that small South American nation of Uruguay and Doug. Before we talk about the inflation and the social decay, what are property taxes like there in that part of Uruguay. And I know you often spend time in Buenos Aires Argentina as well. If you can talk to us in terms of the percent of the value of the property that you pay in property tax each year, which tends to be one to one and a quarter percent on an average in the United States.

Doug Casey 9:13

that's right. And I think in some states like Illinois, it can go up to about 2% if I'm not mistaken, which means that you really don't own your property. If you don't pay your real estate taxes for for a year or two, you'll find out who really owns it, right? But taxes are high in South America, but generally, not too bad on real estate per se, certainly not on farmland, but farmland everywhere in the world doesn't pay much in the way of real estate taxes, and that's certainly the case here in Uruguay, and the same in Argentina, which might be worth more discussion, because Argentina is doing something that's actually unique in world history right now. And I.hope it's a story that ends well, because they're going in the right direction. But to answer your question, if you buy a condo or a house in a city in Uruguay or Argentina or most of these countries down here, you're going to pay real estate taxes, but it's less than in the US typically, like a half a percent, when they get you in South America is value added taxes, or anything you buy, including labor. In most places, you have to pay the government someplace in between 18 or 20 or 22% depending it's like a huge extra sales tax that's hidden in the cost of the item. And of course, they have income taxes down here, just as what they do in the US, approximately American levels. But on the bright side, not that I know about these things from a firsthand point of view, but these Latin American countries are kind of corrupt and not as completely grasping as the US is they're not as competent in going after you, and don't have a worldwide reach, which the US does.

Keith Weinhold 11:07

Yeah. Oh, well, that's an interesting comparison there. And yeah, Doug, a lot of Latin American nations have had high rates of inflation in both the recent past and now in a piece that you recently wrote is titled, inflation and social decay, rising prices and falling values. And here in the United States, whether it's at the grocery store or the mall or restaurants or airports or anywhere you turn, people really are finding inferior goods and services yet at higher prices. I mean, everyone sees that now. And Doug, I know that you've maintained that living standards have taken a big step, not forward, but backward, and are trending even worse. So tell us about it.

Doug Casey 11:49

Well, the way that you become wealthy is by producing more than you consume and saving the difference. That's the basic formula. Produce more than you consume and save the difference. But when the government inflates the currency, and the government's entirely at fault with it, they have the printing presses. They control the currency. It makes it very, very hard to save, and you can't get ahead. You can't build capital which you need in order to invest and become a capitalist. So inflation is the enemy of the average man, and it's the enemy of society as a whole, but some people do very well because of inflation. Why? Because in the US, it's the people in basically New York and Washington and other big cities that stand very close to the fire hydrant of money that comes out of the government, and they get to drink deeply before something trickles down to the plebs below inflation will destroy a country, and that's why in Latin America in particular, you've got very rich people who are usually connected to the government, who get that money first, and a lot of poor peasants who don't get it, and I'm afraid that the US has been going in that direction for some years.

Keith Weinhold 13:08

Well, I'm so glad Doug that you gave us the reminder that the government is the source of inflation. That's where it all begins, because people often blame the landlord for higher rents, but they blame the grocer for the higher beef prices, but the landlord in the grocer, they're only the messenger, not the source. You're absolutely right. It's a question of very bad economic education throughout the school system, all the way up to college and post grad work the butcher and the baker and the oil maker produce real goods that make your standard of living higher. They're the heroes in this scenario. The government, which prints up money through its deficits that it runs, is the villain in this and I never cease to be amazed and shocked how people look at politicians to be their saviors, right? They're heroes. They're not. They're the villains in this piece. They serve no useful purpose. And the same goes for most of these agencies that they set up, which once again, make things easier for the guys on top, that have capital, that have political connections, that can hire the lawyers, hire the accountants to twist things in their favor, makes it very hard for the little guy who can't jump over the hurdles that are put up by regulation as well as taxes as well as inflation.

Tell us about how inflation erodes ethical standards.

Doug Casey 14:38

Well, that's a problem too, because if you can't trust money, the validity of contracts becomes questionable if you borrow. It's terrible in a country like Argentina, if you borrowed 100 pesos from me and only gave it back to me next year, it'd be worth half as much. But you say, Hey, here's your 100 pesos, but you're subtly cheating the person that you borrowed the money from, right? And it erodes trust. Not only that, but inflation tends to make the banking system unsound for a number of reasons. If you can't trust your bank, you really can't trust any financial institutions. So money is the lifeblood of a society. It represents everything that you want to do and want to provide for other people in the future. And if the government destroys your money, it's destroying your future life. And that erodes trust. It makes people think in terms of, I want it all, and I want it now. I'm not willing to wait, because in the future, I don't know what anything is going to be worth. So it leads to an unstable society. And in an unstable society, you don't trust anything.

Keith Weinhold 15:57

right? Well, first, I love your example of the 100 peso loan. I mean, how would one know how much interest to charge in a runaway inflationary environment? Because some people don't realize that high inflation also means more volatile levels of inflation, and banking and lending really break down. You know, Doug, I've got my own example or two about how inflation introduces unethical behavior when the big wave of inflation started to hit in 2021 and 2022 in the United States, you know my favorite cold brew bottled coffee, which I drank because it had good ingredients in it, rather than raising the price on that with inflation, they replaced their higher quality sweeteners in my cold brew coffee, like stevia and monk fruit extract with a junky sucralose sweetener, they could keep their price the same that way. They sure didn't point out that they substituted a junkier sweetener. And really this is another form of inflation called skimplation That was pretty sneaky behavior here.

Doug Casey 17:00

you're absolutely correct, Keith, and this further breaks down the bonds of trust in society, because you no longer really trust that manufacturer, and that's just your one particular coffee manufacturer, but it's happening across the board with all manufacturers, so no wonder people start saying, Hey, I hate these companies. They're trying to rip me off. Well, they're not trying to rip you off. They're just trying to survive the consequences of the government debasing the currency. So we have to assign blame where it belongs. That's a very good example that you just gave. I think.

Keith Weinhold 17:35

yeah. And I think another way that inflation introduces unethical behavior is say that there are two different manufacturers of wine, and they're selling their bottle of wine for $20 then the currency supply doubles. Okay, well, one manufacturer can go ahead and keep selling their $20 wine with inferior ingredients. Well over here, the honest guy, the other company, they double their price to $40 and they continue to use good quality ingredients. But what do consumers notice? They notice the price more than the ingredients. So therefore the unethical one that waters down their wine ingredients but keeps their price low actually gets rewarded and will get more business.

Doug Casey 18:15

You're right, certainly in the short run, but in the long run, inflation is going to destroy both of them, but for different reasons, inflation really destroys the basis of society itself, because it makes it so much harder to produce and you don't have any savings to consume. So money is the basis of society. When you destroy the money you're destroying the basis of society itself.

Keith Weinhold 18:43

We're talking with Doug Casey about his recent piece that you can find@internationalman.com it'stitled inflation and social decay, rising prices and falling values. He also hosts the eponymous show, Doug Casey's take more with Doug when we come back, including how inflation leads to a more litigious society and actually creates more lawsuits. That's straight ahead. I'm your host. Keith Weinhold.

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Richard Duncan 20:53

this is Richard Duncan, publisher and macro watch, listen to get rich Education with Geek Weinhold, and don't quit your Daydream.

Keith Weinhold 21:11

Welcome back to get rich education. We're talking with legendary author Doug Casey. In fact, his classic book strategic investing broke the record for receiving the largest advance ever paid for a financial book at the time. And Doug, I know, in one of your latest pieces, you talked about how inflation actually leads to a more litigious society as well. Tell us about that.

Doug Casey 21:34

The US is actually the most litigious country in the world, and it's because a company may have a hard time meeting its obligations when the currency that its obligations are denominated in turns into a floating abstraction, and if you can't fulfill your obligation, is the way you would righteously on a handshake. Might you may want to call in your lawyers to help you survive. So it percolates through all areas of society.

Keith Weinhold 22:06

Now, on top of inflation, I think there's a problem that's really in one's face today, America has a tip inflation problem where increasingly you are being asked for tips at places where you weren't beforehand. And I think a lot of that really began with COVID. Places like Subway restaurant began asking for tips even though you're standing up to order your food, and it was a way for you to show appreciation that they showed up during the pandemic. But when the pandemic waned, the tip request didn't go away. In fact, I think they've increased. So we have tip inflation on top of inflation. Doug, I recently attended a conference, and the little convenience stores inside the event site hotel, they stated that they are now cashless. Okay, so you're going to be paying with a card, and when you bring your groceries up to the counter, there's a little screen, and they ask you two to three questions. You have to answer two to three prompts if you don't want to leave a tip. This is just at a convenience store. This holds up the line. It's a little frustrating. It wears me out. They say humans can only make 35,000 decisions a day. I just spent three or four of them saying I don't want to leave a tip for this sandwich that I just brought to the counter. And you know what's funny, Doug, I almost consider if this gets annoying after I deny the ridiculous tip request when they didn't provide any additional service. You know what I think about asking Doug, asking that person, oh, okay, well, you asked me to pay more than we agreed to. Where's my discount? Now let me ask you a few questions about my discount now that you ask that I pay more than what we agreed to. So tenations become a problem.

Doug Casey 23:47

Actually, it's worse than that, because now that the world is going to computer money less cash, they give you some choices. I know at Starbucks, this is the case. You want to leave a 10% or a 15% or a 20% tip, those are the things that you can check to make it easy for yourself. But wait a minute, I just wanted a coffee, and what services this person provided for me, other than just drawing a coffee for me and I'm given a choice of it used to be that tips were this is a long time ago, but it's still the way it is in many countries in the world, the tips were just the excess change that you left there. Or the waiter in many countries in the world, like, well, two I can think of off the top of my hand, or Japan, where tipping is is not accepted. In fact, I remember in one Tokyo restaurant, I left some money on the table, and the waitress ran down the street after me to give me my money back. She thought that I inadvertently left it on the table and it was supposed to be a tip. Other countries, like New Zealand, there's no tipping. Certainly out in the country, it's only in the big cities. So yeah, it's become a rather pernicious habit, but I understand, because the average guy doing manual hourly labor like waiting is having a really hard time making it these days, and that's evidenced by the fact that both Trump and Kamala Harris were talking about making tips exempt from income taxes, because you might have to pay the government, well, forget about it. You have to pay them 15% in Social Security taxes, which are non deductible, and then you have to pay income taxes on top of the Social Security taxes. So I I understand why you'd want to do that, but inflation is just another kind of tax, actually, when we get right down to it, that's what it is. It's a subtle tax. It's a tax that you don't see. It's a tax that you blame on the person providing the service of the good, rather than the government, which if they tax you directly. Yeah, you see that, but you don't see that. Inflation is just another form of tax.

Keith Weinhold 25:59

Sure, an income tax or a property tax is sort of front stage inflation really a backstage tax being surreptitious. To your point, well, if the government is so bad and does such a poor job of issuing currency, Doug, what are your thoughts about the government just getting out of the currency issuance business? Whatever that would look like, a gold standard, a Bitcoin standard. Does the government have to be the one that issues the currency?

Doug Casey 26:27

No, it doesn't actually look and we might want to forget about this concept of currency. You've heard that the BRICS, a bunch of third world countries, Russia, India, China, Brazil, many others who want to get out of using the dollar, they don't want to use the dollar because the dollar is turned into a floating abstraction, and they can't trust the US government, as the Russians found, because all dollars clear through New York. So what are they going to do? They don't trust each other's phony baloney currencies. I think that those countries are going to go to gold, not a gold currency, gold, which was money since day one of human history. Actually, I think that's going to happen in the US. And for many, many years, I've suggested that people do their saving in gold, not in dollars. I've been saving in gold for the last 50 years, starting when gold was in the low 40s. And as you do with savings, you put it aside, you forget about it. And the gold that I first saved at $40 an ounce, it's now at 2700 more or less, has treated me very well. I think that people should be saving with something that's not going to lose value the way the dollar does. If the dollar is in a lot of trouble, it could dry up and blow away, quite frankly. So one reason why you want to own real things, commodities, properties, gold, things of that nature, or stocks, if you choose the company well.

Keith Weinhold 27:59

I've helped people that have been hesitant about putting a little bit of money into gold or Bitcoin with the mindset of, don't think about how you are buying gold or Bitcoin. Think of it rather as how you are shifting a portion of your prosperity from dollars, pesos, yen or euros over into gold or Bitcoin. Really, you're just shifting some of your prosperity there. Is the way that I like to think about it. But Doug, as we've been talking about inflation, in this theme of government really having intervention and distortions into free markets, including things like inflation. You know, I've got something that I'm thinking about, and you might help shape or change my thinking about this. We generally champion free markets around here that's typically a good economic system. However, is a free market with some guardrails on it actually helpful? Or do you think that the guardrails shouldn't be there? You mentioned Donald Trump a little bit earlier? One thing, for example, that he says he wants to do Doug is fire the current FTC chair, Lina Khan now the Federal Trade Commission. What their role has really been in the past few years is they spend a lot of their energy cracking down on fraudsters, but Lina Khan wants to bust up mega corporations. So really, what I'm getting at is, can one of the guardrails that's important be that say the FTC make sure there isn't like a an early 1900 style, John D Rockefeller monopoly. What are your thoughts with the government's role in breaking up monopolies? Is that a valid guardrail on the free market?

Doug Casey 29:30

No, I don't think it is. Look, you've got two kinds of monopolies. You've got market monopolies and legal monopolies. A market monopoly is one where the company provides the good or service so cheaply at such a high quality that nobody can compete with them. It's not worth it. Well, leave it alone. And if they start pricing their product too high, or the quality falls enough in a free market, Competitors will come in. That's one type of monopoly. nothing wrong with that kind of monopoly. The other kind of monopoly is a legal monopoly where the government says you have a franchise to do this, you and only you can do it like, well, like almost anything today, where you have to, you have to get government approval in order to provide the good or service. Like railroads, for instance, you couldn't start a new railroad today if you wanted to. So if it's a legal monopoly, you're fighting the law. If it's a market monopoly, you just have to provide a service or good, cheaper or better. So no, I don't think the FTC or any of these three Leader Letter agencies serve a useful purpose. All they do is add to costs and slow down competition and employ people that stick their nose into your business and tell you what you can or can't do both as a producer and a consumer. Look, the government is force. It's coercion. It should only do three things in a civilized society, we want to limit coercion. That means protect you from coercion outside the country with the military inside the country, with the police force, and allow you to adjudicate disputes peacefully without resorting to coercion through a court system. Everything else can be solved through market processes. Believe it or not, I know that shocks most people to hear they're so used to thinking that big brother is watching over a man is going to save my bank and protect me from bad people out there. I wish there are plenty, but it's not the best way to do it. Frankly.

Keith Weinhold 31:33

you've done a good job of drawing a distinct line as to what you think government should stay out of but what about this monopoly power? What if, even with AI inroads, Google still owns more than 90% of the search markets, so therefore they can charge exorbitant prices. Shouldn't something like Google be broken up in an antitrust lawsuit?

Doug Casey 31:51

No, no, it shouldn't, because there are other companies out there that provide people are just used to using Google. I use it myself, but there are at least a half a dozen, and I'm not a computer jock, so I think there are more than that, other services out there that you can use instead of Google, and believe me, I don't like these big companies. I mean, they act like semi governments onto themselves. No, you don't want the government to step in, because the government is a far greater danger than Google is. Google can't break down your door at three in the morning with cops and haul you off to jail. Google can just charge you more than you'd want and do other things like that. But you have other alternatives to Google. It's not an active over weeding physical danger the way the government does. And I'm not saying I like Google either. I don't. Let's admit it, they provide us a tremendous service at basically zero cost, and if you can find ways to get around them, I think that's great. Like I said, it's wonderful what they do. But that doesn't mean I'm a fan of them because of the way that, like any big organization, sure, they try to take advantage around the edges. Unfortunately, that's a negative part of human nature. But the government is not the solution to the problem.

Keith Weinhold 33:13

And of course, this doesn't mean I'm a pro regulation person. Some states and jurisdictions landlord and tenant act can be overbearing.For example, the FDA is not doing a good job with what is allowed to be put into our food, either. So the size of the regulation probably is too big.

Doug Casey 33:31

My old friend Dirk Pearson, who wrote a book called Life Extension, a practical scientific approach, was a huge bestseller some years ago, and Derek always liked to say the FDA it kills more people every year than the Defense Department does decade. And he's right.

Keith Weinhold 33:51

Yeah, that is a pretty sad indictment on the state of things there. But do you have given us quite a few things to think about with how inflation is actually an unethical source, and some more thoughts about free markets. If our audience wants to connect with you, what's the best way for them to do that?

Doug Casey 34:07

Well, go to internationalman.com I write an article there every week, but every day we have great articles by great people. So go to internationalman.com that's one thing on YouTube. Doug Casey's take, where I have a conversation on these and many, many other subjects with Matt Smith every week. And the last thing is, since you can say some things in the form of fiction that you dare not, or better not say in the form of non fiction, right, I have three novels, speculator, drug lord and assassin that I think are excellent reads, so go on Amazon and pick them up too.

Keith Weinhold 34:47

Yeah, Casey, it's been insightful as usual. Thanks for coming back onto the show today.

Doug Casey 34:52

Appreciate it, Keith, it's been a pleasure.

Keith Weinhold 35:00

Yeah, good insight from Doug. As always, tipflation has become awfully intrusive. I recently made a donation on my nephew's behalf for his soccer team or something like that on the donation platform, okay, they called that donation my pledge. Okay, sure, but before I finaled out my pledge on the site, they next asked me if I would like to leave a tip on top of my pledge. Sheesh. Well, do you blame the donation platform for trying to up charge me after I'm just trying to be giving or instead, after listening to today's episode, do you blame the government for inflation in spending? Is this all just a result of that? And now we have listeners that when they find this show, they want to go back and listen to all currently, 500 plus episodes. Well, if you're listening to this five or 10 years from now, you might find my tipflation stories unusual because the practice could be so common and embedded into society by then. Right now, it's still pretty novel here in the mid 2020s there's a rapid rate of change on the tip flation front. And the next time that you are asked for an out of bounds tip, are you next going to ask the merchant where your discount is and make them answer three questions about it.

And by the way, the cold brew coffee that I mentioned with Doug is not the erstwhile la Columbia brand that I talked about two weeks ago. My favorite and real go tos are the Slate and O, W, Y, N brands. That way you get 20 grams of protein with your coffee and no cheap sweeteners in those two. Now, when it comes to the anti trust stuff, breaking up monopolies and duopolies, see real estate is super fractured with who owns it. I mean, even with more institutional buying of real estate, like we've seen this past decade on a national basis, these huge groups that own 1000 homes or more. All those groups, they only own about 710, of 1%of the US single family housing stock. So real estate investing is free market and it is fractured. It is not at all consolidated.

And now let me give you something outside of real estate, an example from another segment of business, supermarkets. There is no need for you to frantically hoard Annie's mac and cheese. It's not good for you anyway. But two courts rejected the Kroger Albertsons merger earlier this month, and that effectively broke up the deal that would have brought together two of the largest grocery store chains in America, the decision that really gave a sweet victory to FTC chair Lena Khan, like I mentioned there in the interview, but her time at the agency's Helm, that's going to end in a few weeks with the beginning of a new presidential administration. But see, in my opinion, and going after antitrust cases, she was pro free market and pro competition, which I see as a good thing. That way you have more companies vying for your business with better quality and lower prices. But I do like to listen to the other side, because, like I said in the interview, I'm still forming an opinion on this. That's why I wanted Doug Casey's take. And in this case, the two grocery companies, they had argued that creating a larger entity merging them both that would allow it to compete with Walmart and offer higher wages and lower prices. That is their side of it. Now Andrew Ferguson, he is the apparent new FTC chair. He has promised to reverse what he called Khan's anti business agenda, so we're not going to see as much antitrust crackdown from the looks of things. And note that there is also an antitrust division at the DOJ, so their influence weighs in as well. This really hasn't been much of a problem for real estate, one of the most highly fractured major markets around and now you do have though adjacent industry, like the home builder space, where there is a home building giant like Lennar, but even the home builder space isn't nearly as consolidated and anti competitive as say, the online search industry or the airline industry. I would like to wish you a happy new year. As always, we are back next week with more great content coming up on the show. We go in depth on some real estate asset classes and also how you can really, accionably and seriously reduce your tax burden next year with vehicles like bonus depreciation and cost segregation, simplifying those things for you, these are exactly the types of tools about how the rich get ahead by knowing how the tax laws benefit them, and pretty soon you will too.

If you like what you hear here each week, please go ahead and tell a friend about the show. I would really appreciate it. Until then, I'm your host. Keith Weinhold, don't quit your Daydream.

Speaker 2 40:15

Keith Weinhold 40:43

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Direct download: GREepisode534_.mp3
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Mon, 23 December 2024

Keith unveils our 2025 National Home Price Appreciation Forecast. Learn the factors driving the housing market and discover why Keith's predictions have been spot-on for the past 3 years. Gain the insights you need to make strategic real estate moves in the year ahead. Don't miss this must-listen episode packed with actionable real estate insights.

The Fannie Mae home purchase sentiment index rose, indicating growing consumer confidence.

Trump's immigration and tariffs policies and their potential impact on housing demand and labor market disruption.

Hear about the impact of the under supply of housing in the US and the potential impact on home prices.

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532: Inflation is Your Wealth-Building Friend (Really)

Complete episode transcript:

Automatically Transcribed With Otter.ai

Keith Weinhold 0:00

Welcome to GRE I'm your host. Keith Weinhold, today is the day that I'm giving you our 2025 national home price appreciation forecast. You'll get the exact percent that I expect home prices to rise for Fall next year. Learn the factors that really move prices. Importantly, I follow up and you get the results of previous years forecasts too. Will it be a holly jolly forecast or more Grinch like today on Get Rich Education.

Mid-south home buyers. I mean, they're total pros, with over two decades as the nation's highest rated turnkey provider, their empathetic property managers use your ROI as their North Star. So it's no wonder that smart investors just keep lining up to get their completely renovated income properties like it's the newest iPhone. They're headquartered in Memphis and have globally attractive. Cash Flows, an A plus rating with a better business bureau and now over 5000 houses renovated. There's zero markup on maintenance. Let that sink in, and they average a 98.9% occupancy rate, while their average renter stays more than three and a half years. Every home they offer has brand new components, a bumper to bumper, one year warranty, new 30 year roofs. And wait for it, a high quality renter. Remember that part and in an astounding price range, 100 to 180k I've personally toured their office and their properties in person in Memphis, get to know Mid South. Enjoy cash flow from day one. Start yourself right now at mid southhomebuyers.com that's mid south homebuyers.com

you know, whenever you want the best written real estate and finance info. Oh, geez. Today's experience limits your free articles access, and it's got paywalls and pop ups and push notifications and cookies disclaimers. It's not so great. So then it's vital to place nice, clean, free content into your hands that adds no hype value to your life. That's why this is the golden age of quality newsletters, and I write every word of ours myself. It's got a dash of humor, and it's to the point because even the word abbreviation is too long, my letter usually takes less than three minutes to read, and when you start the letter, you also get my one hour fast real estate video. Course, it's all completely free. It's called the Don't quit your Daydream letter. It wires your mind for wealth, and it couldn't be easier for you to get it right now just text GRE to 66866, while it's on your mind, take a moment to do it right now. Text GRE to 66866.

Corey Coates 3:12

you're listening to the show that has created more financial freedom than nearly any show in the world. This is get rich education.

Keith Weinhold 3:28

Welcome to GRE from North port, Florida to North Pole, Alaska and across 188 nations worldwide. I'm Keith Weinhold, and you are listening to get rich education episode 533 Yes, your favorite slack jawed real estate podcaster here is indeed the GRE founder. I'm also an active Forbes real estate council member, best selling author. I write our weekly Don't quit your Daydream newsletter. And perhaps most importantly, I am an active real estate investor, I am here to help you invest well in real estate, and that is because most Americans have enough saved for an absolutely incredible single day of retirement. Look the content that you choose to listen to will shape your behavior, it'll even gradually alter your identity over time and forge your dreams. Middle class financial advice will keep you squarely in the middle class. They get robbed of the fruits of their labor through taxes. Get robbed of their purchasing power through inflation, and they get robbed of their financial future by staying financially illiterate. I mean, if you're grinding hard and sacrificing experiences to be debt free at 36 well then that means you aren't using other people's money. You, it confirms that you've got no leverage. Why celebrate that? Celebrate financial freedom or a great vacation, or, you know, anything else, like with your friends and family to the Canary Islands. I mean, that's stuff that's worth celebrating, that's extraordinary in this one and only life that you got. I love the old African proverb, if you want to go fast, go alone. If you want to go far, go together. You and I are on this journey together. Dream of living the life where you just give a light touch to some of your investments while they are building your wealth, just adjust the sales of your ship a little here and there. Now. We'll get into the big picture real estate forces in my exact percent home price appreciation figure shortly. But doesn't that sound amazing where you can just do this? I mean, that's what I do. I just give a light touch to my investments. For example, at the beginning of this month, I looked at the statements as they came in in emails from my property managers in various real estate markets, like I usually do now when you have a perfect month as a real estate investor, US landlords, or should I say, housing providers, acknowledging last week's show we develop our own vernacular. A perfect month is when you have 100% rental occupancy and no repair items. Once though you have more than about five rental units, it's hard to ever have a perfect month. It's always good to budget something toward long term vacancy and maintenance. But I had a pretty good month last month. For some reason, my properties needed a few new appliances, a replaced fridge. Here, a new microwave. There, a lot of appliances like a fridge, you know, they can still look pretty close to new, even if they're used. That's fine for a rental. This was just a $280 fridge replacement, for example, in this one rental, single family home of mine. So yeah, just that monthly scan of your property manager statement, seeing that income and expenses look kind of reasonable to you, and then going about your day and the rest of your month. Now, it wasn't always that way for me. As I started and grew, I self managed my own properties for the first six or seven years, and sometimes, you know, something will happen where I want to get more proactive and maybe take, say, a 90 minute block of time to shop for lower insurance premiums if I see those rates rising in a certain market or something like that, but that's how it feels to give a light touch to your active direct real estate investments. Keep that going, because this is all happening while you keep other people's money working for you, the banks, the governments and the tenants.

Hey, something that's become newsworthy, an index measuring consumer confidence in the housing market, rose again last month, and that is the latest sign that potential property buyers and sellers are growing more accustomed to today's mortgage rates and prices. The Fannie Mae home purchase sentiment index that has now increased to 75 points. So the index has risen 11 points or more than 16% in the last year. So there is, however, not one shred of evidence, for example, that sub 3% mortgage rates are coming back anytime soon, maybe not even in this decade or in your entire lifetime. Who really knows? I mean, it's soon going to be three years since the Fed began their aggressive rate hiking cycle and the market and consumer expectations are finally adjusting and settling down, and that right there that factors in just the touch to the housing forecast that I'm going to deliver to you today. And before I get into that, since we are get rich education, do you know what the federal funds rate is like, what it really means? Let me explain this to you in a way where I think you'll not only learn, but I'm going to give you an example so that you can actually remember it. And I'm going to over simplify it, the federal funds rate, that thing that Jerome Powell and his committee set, that is the rate that banks pay other banks to borrow from each other. It's a little over 4% right now. Okay, let's just say it's 4% here's why the federal funds rate is typically lower than mortgage rates. Say that Wells Fargo pays bank of America this 4% federal funds rate to borrow so that Wells Fargo can then turn around and lend the funds to you for a real estate mortgage loan. All right. Well now you can see that Wells Fargo had to pay Bank of America 4% that's why, when you go get your real estate loan from Wells Fargo, you can understand and see why they'd have to charge you, say, 7% in order to make a spread. That is why mortgage rates are higher than the federal funds rate. Wells Fargo made the spread of 3% because they borrowed at four, and they lent it to you at seven, and you yourself you borrowed at seven because your tenant pays your interest and principal for you, and you get the leverage and all of the other benefits. So again, the federal funds rate is the rate that banks pay when they borrow from other banks, and since they need to make a spread arbitrage, this is why mortgage rates are higher. Again, that's oversimplified, but I think that's a way where you can really remember what that is and why that is that way. All right.

Well, with that lesson understood, let's talk about the big national home price forecast for next year. And here's what's interesting. Look at the forecasts that my peers have made. All right, I've already got the forecasts from 16 other housing analytics platforms here, and they have all predicted that home prices will rise next year, all 16 of them, but they've all forecast something different. And everything we're discussing today, by the way, is nominal, meaning, not inflation adjusted. All right. Note that the average of all these platforms, all 16 of them, is a 2.8% gain for next year. All right, if you look at all of them the range, the highest is Goldman, Sachs at 4.4% and the lowest is Moody's Analytics at just 310 of 1%

I'll tell you now that my forecast today, it wouldn't even fit on this chart, it is going to be off the chart. And this is something that might ramp up your intrigue. Maybe you think I would look at this and choose something safe, and since I have the benefit of seeing how 16 others have weighed in that, I'll just pick something in the middle of that. Oh, no, not at all. This is an independent forecast. So since our forecast is off the chart, then that means that what I'm going to tell you today either has to be higher than the highest, which is that 4.4% from Goldman Sachs, or lower than the lowest, which is that 310 of 1% from Moody's. Yes, it is outside of those brackets, busting the bookends today. And as I lead up to it, I will detail the reasons why the calculus that went into this forecast. So before we're done, yes, you will get the exact percent number that I expect existing single family home values to increase by or decrease by next year. It is the fourth straight year that I'm doing this. And now a lot of people make whimsical predictions, you know. But today, you're gonna get something that you rarely, if ever get accountability, because I'm also going to show you the results, you'll see how well my forecasts have actually performed each of the past three years. Sheesh, don't you wish everyone followed up on the prediction that they made now, oh gosh, most housing price crash Predictions Fail Faster than your average New Year's resolution. All right, we need first historic context in order to put this future that we're talking about into perspective. Let's look at how bad other predictions have been this is something that Yahoo Finance recently pointed out, the year by year, reasons that people thought housing prices would crash Since 2012 so we're talking about the past 13 years here, starting in 2012 it was shadow inventory. Remember that that never came true. 2013 higher mortgage rates. 2014 in that year. People thought that housing prices could tumble hard because QE was ending in October of that year. That is quantitative easing, which is dollar printing. I mean, basically QE, that's just the Genteel way of saying inflation. In 2015 they thought a manufacturing recession would make home prices crash. In 2016 home prices were back to their pre global financial crisis high. Well, people thought that seemed shaky. In 2017 I don't know what it was. No one had a good reason. But the word crash just gets attention, so some media tried to scare people with that headline. Anyway, in 2018 it was mortgage rates went from 4% up to 5% seriously like that was the top reason. In 2019 it was that home price growth was cooling off in 2020 of course, it was the COVID 19 pandemic in 2021 it was mortgage forbearance in 2022 it was that mortgage rates hit 7% that was the first time we saw those in a while, even though 7% is still below the long term average of seven and three quarters percent in 2023 it was historically low housing demand. People thought that would bring down real estate prices. In 2024 it was sustained higher mortgage rates and an uptick in inventory. And what's it going to be in 2025 I don't know. Clickbait artists will have some other farcical reason why home prices will crash. Just watch, all right, well, with that, look back every year since 2012 of course, real estate prices definitely don't always go up. In fact, when we look at a longer term history, the national home price appreciation rate every year since World War Two. Like I told you on a previous episode, there were only two periods where home prices fell, that's over a period of 80 to 85 years. There was just 1% attrition in 1990 and then the only appreciable loss period, of course, were those years around the 2008 global financial crisis, where you really probably could consider that an all out crash, prices were down more than 20% nationally, more than 40% 50% in some markets, all right. Well, how did that concerning period compare to now? Well, 2008 is when conditions were largely opposite of what they are now that is back 2008 we had an oversupply of homes, and it was all supported by poorly underwritten mortgages, meaning the borrower really couldn't afford the payment. And also that's when people had low or no equity in homes, so they just walked away, so borrowers had no equity to lose, nor any credit score to protect, and it was oversupplied there about 17 years ago. I mean, that era was so bad and also such an anomaly, that home prices actually fell below the replacement cost, if you can believe that, meaning that you could ostensibly buy existing property for less than the cost that it would take to build a property, then all right. Well, all three of those conditions are opposite. Now today, we have an under supply of homes. Secondly, we have carefully underwritten mortgages, and thirdly, we have record high equity positions, about 300k on average. People are not walking away from that unless things got absolutely dire. All right, with that historical context. So here we are building up to my factors for the forecast, and then the big reveal of the percent figure here, before we're done, to be clear, what I'm providing is the projected sales price of existing single family homes per the National Association of Realtors, stat set. All right, so why existing? And not include the new builds into that? Well, first of all, there are way more existing home sales. Then there are new build sales each year. And see, the thing is, though, that tracking new build that really skews the numbers, because what can happen is, one year, you might have a ton of luxury new build homes. Well then that skews the numbers up too much. Or then there's the more nascent trend of what's happening lately, building smaller homes this past year in order to help with affordability and building smaller that can skew the numbers down. So sticking with existing homes that allows us to keep things more same same. Today, you'll learn about what goes into my forecast and the factors that actually don't matter as much as you would think, like the incoming Trump administration. You'll also hear an important clip from Trump in a few minutes for the second week in a row, I'm bringing you the show from a fairly interesting place, Anchorage, Alaska. This city of 300,000 people, is at sea level. The west side is confined by a coast. The east side is confined by mountains. It's a modern US city. There are high rise buildings and convention centers and freeways and a really convenient International Airport. What's interesting about being in America's northernmost city right now? Anchorage is. That Saturday, just a couple of days ago, that was the winter Equinox for half of the globe, the entire northern hemisphere. And here, the sunrise time is about 10:15am, and sunset about 3:45pm, that right there is just five and a half hours of daylight. That's it, but it feels like more than that. It feels closer to perhaps seven plus hours of daylight, because at high latitudes, the sun barely drops below the horizon, so therefore you get more Twilight on either end of sunrise in Sunset. Well, this is a real estate show, so I hope that's not too much of an astronomy lesson for you here. But anchorage can never get 24 hours of daylight or darkness, because it simply is not far enough north. In fact, when I fly from, say, the center of the 48 states out here. I travel more west than North. The thing for you to remember is that the only places on the globe that can get 24 hours of daylight and darkness are inside the Arctic and Antarctic circles. They're at 63 and 1/3 degrees of latitude or greater, and Anchorage is just 61 I've been skiing here, but suffice to say, with a lot of darkness, it's been a good place for me to study research and put my effort into this forecast that I'm sharing with you today, which you'll hear after the break.

This week's episode is supported by ridge lending group. It's the same place where I get my investment property mortgages and refinancings, you can go ahead and originate your loans at the same place I get mine, that is Ridgelendinggroup.com. Also freedom family investments, you can make a loan and get a stable return of 7% 8% or Even 10% yet still have some measure of liquidity. Why park your funds at a bank? You can learn about their private money loans by texting FAMILY to 66866, if you want 8% or more on your money while it's on your mind, just text FAMILY to 66866, and see if it's right for you. I'm your host. Keith Weinhold, more next you're listening to get rich education.

Oh geez, the national average bank account pays less than 1% on your savings, so your bank is getting rich off of you. You've got to earn way more, or else you're losing your hard earned cash to inflation. Let the liquidity fund help you put your money to work with minimum risk. Your Cash generates up to a 10% return and compounds year in and year out. Instead of earning less than 1% in your bank account, the minimum investment is just 25k you keep getting paid until you decide you want your money back. Their decade plus track record proves they've always paid their investors 100% in full and on time. And you know how I'd know, because I'm an investor in this myself, earn 10% like me and GRE listeners are text FAMILY to 66866, to learn about freedom. Family investments, liquidity fund on your journey to financial freedom through passive income. Text, FAMILY to 66866.

Tom Wheelwright 24:08

This is Rich Dad Advisor Tom Wheelwright. Listen to Get Rich Education with Keith Weinhold, and Don't Quit Your Daydream.

Keith Weinhold 24:24

welcome back to GRE. I'm your host. Keith Weinhold, with the factors that are weighing into my home price appreciation determination for next year. Here now all of these factors matter, but I'm generally going to start with less weighty factors and proceed more toward the weighty factors Trump tariffs. Could Trump tariffs increase materials costs, the cost of materials that go into homes? Well, yes, of course, they could. Could it also increase the labor costs that go into those homes, if, say, businesses decide to onshore. Sure in order to avoid paying the tariffs, yes, and you would have to pay a higher wage to Americans. That's obviously inflationary, but applying tariffs is slow, and it takes a long time to trickle through, okay? But here's the thing, even the threat of tariffs can produce inflation, and we already have the threat that's something real. And now see if you're a consumer and you want to buy a new washer, dryer set or a microwave, well, you're more motivated to do that today, not in a year, because this threat of tariffs might mean that that appliances price will spike. You might want to buy your new car now, if you anticipate the terrace could be coming and it's going to affect that well, the apartment building owner feels the same way before she or he buys 48 washer dryers for their apartment building. Home Builders and remodelers they want to get their materials orders in now, in some cases, whether that's for concrete, drywall, lumber, any component that goes into a home where they think that a tariff could jack up the price, you really need to be paying attention to whether you think this is going to happen or not. So Trump likely means more inflation, and that correlates also with sustained higher interest rates of all kinds, including mortgage rates. And there's no certainty there. There is just that correlation. Now, a lot of real estate investors anticipate that a president with a real estate investor background like Trump Has he is going to return 100% bonus depreciation and extend his tax breaks, okay, all of these things, especially that bonus depreciation, can really enhance your tax situation, but that's not part of the home price appreciation forecast for next year. Okay, we're just looking at next year here. How about mortgage rates? How is that going to factor into home prices for next year? Mortgage rates hardly matter. And the newer listener that you are, the more of a surprise that is, rates are about 7% now, a lot of experts think they're going to go to 6% in a year. But who knows? I mean, a year ago, everyone thought rates would be substantially lower today. But here's the thing, it's not just a who knows. It's almost a who cares about what mortgage rates will be when it comes to prices. Because, like I've shared with you before, since 1994 mortgage rates have risen 1% or more seven different times, and home prices went up all seven times. Long time listeners like you, you already know this, so for the complete backstory on the why, you can listen to earlier episodes, but the short story is that higher rates, you gotta look at what's happening when there are high rates that's a confirmation that the economy is strong, and when the economy is strong and people feel secure in their job, what do they do? They buy a home. So mortgage rates matter, but a person's personal economy matters more when they make a decision to buy a home or not. A sharp fall in rates that correlates with a recession. So higher rates usually lead to higher home prices, something that almost everyone in real estate thinks of oppositely. On weeks with lower rates this year, we did have lower housing inventory, and with higher rates, we had higher inventory. So that did affect that the next factor is more important than tariffs and mortgage rates, and that is Trump and immigration. Okay? Because this affects the supply versus demand component of housing, something supremely important. Well, more immigrants mean more housing demand, pushing up prices and on immigration, who really knows how many of this surge of fresh immigrants are going to be deported? Will it only be the illegals, or will it be others? Or will it be none at all? Or will it be something else, will trump deport everyone? I mean, that is not easy to do, and it's really expensive. Here are Trump's latest public remarks on how he's going to treat recent immigrants to the US. The interviewer is Kristen Welker from NBC, and she's heard shuffling some papers here too. So don't let that throw you off as you listen to Trump.

Speaker 1 29:39

You raised the point that the logistics are complicated. You said yourself, everything's gone. You mean you need 24 times more ICE detention capacity just to deport 1 million people per year, not to mention more agents, more judges, more planes. Is it realistic to deport everyone? First of all, they're costing us a fortune, but we're starting. With the criminals, and we got to do it, and then we're starting with others, and we're going to see how it goes

Keith Weinhold 30:06

well there, before Trump's first day in office for his second term, see he's already saying we'll see how it goes with deporting immigrants. He now realizes how costly that is. If there is mass deportation, housing demand goes down, but we'd also have fewer laborers, which a lot of those immigrants are, to build the new housing that our country needs. So there's somewhat of a canceling out effect there. It could mean higher home prices because it could even mean higher home prices because most fresh immigrants are renters. They aren't occupying homes that they own anyway, and just how many people we're talking about here, the Pew Research Center estimates that 13% of construction workers are undocumented. That disruption to the labor market that can produce higher inflation, because the slowdown in home building means less supply and higher prices. Now let's get to the biggest factor before I provide my track record, and then the big number, and that is more on the housing supply versus demand. So yeah, it's really fundamental economics. That's the core driver of next year's anticipated home price change. All right, let's start with supply. How undersupplied of housing are we still in the US? Well, an update on the Fred active listing count, and this is for single families, condos and townhomes. It's that we are up off the bottom, but we're still a good 40% or so below the equilibrium point where demand meets supply. America grew its available inventory 27% this year, pretty significant, and next year, it might grow another 15 or 20% that's my best guess. All right then, well, let's try to project future supply by what you have to do is look at new housing starts. That means shovels in the ground. That means taking a backhoe and excavating for spread footings, digging that trench that you're going to pour concrete into, starting homes from the ground up. Well, we don't have enough starts either not enough. In fact, we could be digging a deeper hole with the under supply at our current level of building, US housing under supply will grow by over 200,000 homes per year if we continue at this low level of building. And would you consider all housing types, single family homes, apartments, mobile homes, condos, ADUs, everything? Freddie Mac estimates that we are currently under supplied by a whopping 3.7 million housing units. Now, you probably heard figures like that before, but let me put it into perspective. At two persons per home, our shortage is greater than what could house the entire population of Libya. That's what we're talking about here. And some agencies estimate we're even more undersupplied than the 3.7 million homes. Now, of course, I'm making only a national forecast today. There are regional variations in some Texas and Florida sub markets, they have built plenty of new build single family homes now, let me tell you something scary. What if your income dropped by a third, making 1/3 less in the future than you do right now? Like that would be a moment of panic for a lot of people, you and your family, as you hold that thought when it comes to supply, this year had historically low home sales. When I talk about sales, these are not prices. This is different. This is the volume of sales. Next year, there will likely only be a few more sales than this year, and there weren't many this year. Now see for you, as an individual real estate investor and a consumer that goes grocery shopping, you know, you are interested in real estate prices, but the industry, if you work in the industry, like as a builder or as a real estate agent or even a furniture provider, they are more concerned about the number of home sales. This sales volume that I'm talking about, and here's what's going on, normal is about 5 million home sales per year. It was over 6 million during the pandemic, and now we're down at 4 million. So I mean, in a short period of time to go from 6 million down to 4 million, that is a drawdown of transactions by a third. So just imagine if you are a home builder or a real estate agent, or you're in the retail furniture business and your volume is down by a third. I mean, what would happen to you if your income were down by a third? And you're in one of those industries and you don't have a way to pivot, so that is scary stuff for that subset of people. Well, while all of that was happening to sales volume, lower and lower volume. Home prices have just kept ticking up these past few years. All right. Well, that was supply, and there is one last factor to weigh before I reveal the forecast number, and that is demand. There is a long way to go before there is enough housing inventory for the pent up demand in the housing market, pent up demand from these people that can't quite afford a home. Demographics is destiny. You know, it is one of the easiest things to project, because demographics is a known forget immigration here, because I already talked about that just domestically, the US had its own high birth rate years from 1990 to 2010 and most people don't know about this. Many of those years between 1990 and 2010 there were over 4 million births annually, and that peaked in the year 2007 All right, you might be wondering, so what? That's the past? What about the future? Well, in housing prices, that right there is the future, with today's first time homebuyer now being a record 38 years old, like I told you about a few episodes ago. Alright, if you add 38 to the year that they were born, 2007 that home buyer demand won't peak until the year 2045 so that is a big part of where the demand just keeps coming from, and is going to keep coming from this wave of demographic demand that might not slow down much until the 2050s and what could slow prices is if a major recession that included a lot of job losses were eminent, that could slow home price growth. But nobody expects that. you know something, on future demand, What if health and fitness influencer Brian Johnson is right, and Earth now has the first generation not to die. What would that do to real estate prices? Have you ever thought that through that would really expand housing demand, but that wouldn't affect things for a couple decades. All right, well, let's talk track record and understand that it is pretty difficult to predict the future, and I have made all these forecasts at the end of one year, just before the forecast year even starts, just like I'm doing today, and here's how I've done at the end of 2021 for 2022 I forecast 9-10% home price appreciation the year ended, and in 2022 they came in at 10% so I got that one right. For 2023 before that year even began, I forecast 0% just that home prices would stay flat. And by the way, so many people were calling for a housing price decline that year because mortgage rates had risen. But as we know here on the show, when mortgage rates rise, home prices typically do too. And I also said back then was supply so low, I don't really see how home prices could fall. Well, the year ended, and sure enough, they came in at 0% and all of this is published in on record. You can go back and find all this, in fact, for 2024 you can hear the forecast that I made near the end of last year for 2024 and you could do that by going back and listening to Episode 481 this is episode 533 that was 52 weeks ago, and you will hear that my forecast back then for this year's home price appreciation was 4% this year is not quite over, plus housing data lags somewhat, in fact, through October, however, they were 4.1%

we've almost got that November number, not quite, but it's very likely going to end up being 4% this year, just like I had forecast at the end of Last year, but it's still officially to be determined. Before I gave the awaited fresh forecast for next year with what looks to me like really nailing the forecast spot on three years in a row now you might be wondering something, how did I know? How did I have the foresight to know that and nail those. Forecasts. You know, at this point, I have to concede that there's probably a little luck that has come into play, but this is what I do. I study research and even participate in the National residential housing market. What you're getting is my best estimate. It's not any sort of promise or guarantee. I mean, like all other 8.1 billion human beings on earth, I don't have a crystal ball, and a streak like this has gone on for three years, but it cannot go on forever. So this is what I can best surmise. So really, for 2025 The short story is that I expect more buyers than homes, which creates bids and buoyant prices. I also expect continued inflationary pressure. Those are the two chief factors that went into this. We don't ever revise our forecast mid year. This is it. For 2025 I expect home prices to increase by 5%. Yes, there it is 5% projected appreciation for next year. And to be clear, that is the NARS national median existing single family home price, the same stat set that I have cited all four years again, it is nominal, meaning, not inflation adjusted, so at Christmas or New Year's or your next dinner party, when You see your slack jawed brother in law that thinks the housing market is always going to crash, give the dude a hug and a turkey leg and tell him that I expect plus 5% and pass me the wishbone for good luck on our fourth consecutive housing price appreciation forecast, I really hope that this helps with planning your own portfolio moves, whether that's you owning more income property next year or doing a refinancing, or how you think about your own primary residence. And do you like the forecast that I've done here near the end of each year ever since 2021 if you do let us know, write us or leave us voicemail at get rich education.com/contact let me know you can always get a hold of us there year round with any type of feedback or questions.

Hey, if you appreciate this show here, do you think that you could help me out in one small way? Call it my Christmas gift request. There's only one item on my Christmas list, and it should only take a couple minutes of your time and none of your money. Leave a podcast rating and review for the get rich education podcast on Apple podcasts or Spotify, or wherever you listen, the rating is the five star thing. The review is a few short sentences about why you like the show. I would really appreciate the gift from you, and I will read your review myself too. If you don't know how to do it right inside those listener apps, just open up a browser tab and search how to leave an apple podcast review, or Spotify podcast review, or whatever platform you prefer to listen on it would feel like a little Christmas gift to me after all these years, I'd love your feedback given that way. Tell me what you think, and thanks from me and the entire team here at GRE Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays. Until next week, I'm your host. Keith Weinhold, don't quit your day dream.

Speaker 2 43:46

Keith Weinhold 44:06

The preceding program was brought to you by your home for wealth building. Get rich education.com

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Mon, 16 December 2024

Are you a real estate investor looking to maximize your returns and minimize hassles with your rental properties? This is a must-listen! You'll discover proven strategies for quickly filling vacant units and attracting high-quality, long-term tenants.

Hear Keith share insider tips on leveraging rent increases to boost your cash flow and property values.

Plus, you'll learn about an innovative financial tool - a Home Equity Investment - that can unlock a lump sum of cash from your properties without any monthly payments.

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531: How to Replace Your Job with Rent Income in Just 3 Years

Complete episode transcript:

Automatically Transcribed With Otter.ai

Keith Weinhold 0:01

Welcome to GRE. I'm your host. Keith Weinhold, talking about the dynamic between rents and prices, how to keep your vacancy rate low and the relationship between landlords and tenants. Learn about how a newer vehicle can give you a big lump of cash from your property without you having to make any payments, then inflation is your wealth building, Friend, yeah? really today on get rich education.

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when you want the best real estate and finance info, the modern Internet experience limits your free articles access, and it's replete with paywalls and you get pop ups and push notifications and cookies disclaimers, ugh. At no other time in history has it been more vital to place nice, clean, free content in your hands that actually adds no hype value to your life. That's why this is the golden age of quality newsletters. And I write ours myself. It's got a dash of humor, and it is to the point to get it. It couldn't be more simple. Just type up a text message with the letters G, R, E in the body and send it to the phone number, 66866, and when you start the free newsletter, you'll also get my one hour fast real estate course, completely free. Subscribe to my Don't quit your Daydream newsletter, and your mind will be wired for wealth. Text GRE to 66866, text GRE to 66866,

Corey Coates 3:02

you're listening to the show that has created more financial freedom than nearly any show in the world. This is get rich education.

Keith Weinhold 3:18

Welcome to GRE from Villa Lenovo, Pennsylvania to Villanueva, Columbia, and across 488 nations worldwide. I'm Keith Weinhold in your listening to get rich education. I'm really grateful to have you as always. When you invest, you are buying a day that you don't have to work. That's what we're helping you do here every single week own real estate, and it's going to allow you to buy back big chunks of time for yourself later. And that's a big deal because your very life is made up of chapters of time. It's actually really cool when you own investment properties in a few different places, then you actually own part of, say, Indiana and Tennessee and Georgia. You own parts of those states. That's what we help you do here. And that sounds cool. Sounding cool, though, is not enough. There need to be good fundamental reasons behind the real estate portfolio that you are building. It's kind of interesting. With rental property investing, you're kind of doing the little things in order to hold together the big profitable picture, because there are all these forces that are simultaneously creating wealth for you when you've got income property with a loan. So yeah, you're just sort of trying to hold it together. You say, don't get your vacant property rented as soon as you want. So you might drop the rent 50 bucks and add a nice new kitchen faucet and ta da, just like that. It's rented, and all while you're doing those little things. Things to hold it together. Whether your property is vacant or rented, you are benefiting from leverage and inflation. Profiting on your loan. You're benefiting from some big forces either way. Well, on today's show, first, we're going to be talking about the little things like the one on one relationship between you and your tenant, and then later on the show today, that's when we'll grow and talk about a more macro force, like new ways for you to think about how you're benefiting from inflation when we talk about rents prices and the relationship between a real estate investor like you and your tenant. Recently, on the show here, I talked about how the 4.6% growth in wages like we do have today, that is a harbinger of you getting future rent growth. And this can get rent growth to catch up with the growth that we've had in property prices. And note that this is what happens. You need to remember that the bid format of buying property that allows for more rapid price escalation than the first come first serve at a set price format that you have when you're trying to rent out your property. All right, when you put up a property for sale, or you're the person that's buying one, that's usually not in a first come first serve process that's more of a competitive bid process. And see that is exactly why, in a hot market, real estate prices can run up fast. But because, say, you're renting out a property, and you're doing that, you're usually not accepting offers from prospective tenants and then taking the tenant that has the highest bid. Well, instead with rents, you're just taking the qualified first tenant that agrees to your fixed rent price of, say, $2,000 Okay, your prospective tenant isn't saying, Oh, I really like your rental, single family home, so I'll pay you $2,200 for instead of the 2000 that you're asking. And see that right there is why, in a hot market, property prices run up faster than rents do. But see when prices run up faster than rents, like they did, starting about four years ago, what happens is that begins to make rents, oh, they look like a relative bargain to people that are seeking housing. So that is the time that pivot point when rents catch up with prices, which is the cycle that I hope we are getting into next. Now. Right now, we have to be at a time of year where tenants tend to stay put. There isn't as much turnover as you approach the holidays, but a few months from now, turnover tends to pick up in the springtime. And before we talk about the economics of what you do when you have a vacant unit, understand that despite the national housing shortage, the rental vacancy rate really is not that low nationwide. Do you have any idea what the historically average rental vacancy rate is? You have any guess there? That's about 7% 7.3% to be exact. That's why, when you run your cash flow analysis for a property using one month per year is usually pretty safe, that's about 8% Well, all right, we've established that the long term national rate of vacancy is 7.3% the current vacancy rate is 6.9% and yes, that number is just what it sounds like. It's simply the percentage of rental inventory that's available for rent, and it maxed out at 11% back in 2009 that's when housing was badly overbuilt, and now with the housing shortage, you'll see that today's vacancy rate is only a little below normal, 7.3 versus 6.9 maybe you're wondering, well, why isn't it even lower, like five or 6% Well, one big reason why vacancy rates are just a little lower than the long run average is all of the apartment over building like I discussed with you two weeks on the show and I told you about my walk on rainy street in Austin, Texas last month, where they're building gobs of 500 foot tall apartment towers that aren't going to be occupied for a while, and I called that area America's apartment oversupply ground zero. But as you know, there are so many ways to parse and dissect real estate markets. The vacancy rate for apartment buildings today is 7.8% nationally, but for single family rental homes, it's only 5.4% that's because their supply is more scarce. But since there aren't many new apartment projects just getting started now, they're just completing when they started about two years ago, I would expect the apartment vacancy rate to come down over the next couple of years. And then, of course, each local area is going to have its own vacancy rate too. I mean, there are so many ways to parse, to bifurcate real estate, and all those figures I gave you are per the US Census. Well, I've explained to you before that when you have a vacant unit, that is the time for you to really push it test the market. Start your asking rent up rather high in order to see what you can get for it. And this is what's known in economics, in the free market as price discovery. This is your time for price discovery, but you usually only want to keep the rent way high for just a few days, otherwise you might needlessly increase your vacancy period. But here's the thing, if your unit is vacant after a number of showings, is it better for you to drop the rent, or instead, is it better for you to make some upgrades to the unit and keep that higher asking rent? Well, like seemingly everything in real estate investing, the short answer for you is, it depends right the upside of you dropping the rent is that it's a lot quicker and easier to do than making an upgrade to the unit. I mean, just snap your fingers and it's done. Dropping the rent might only take a few seconds or minutes, but see when you keep the higher asking rent and you make upgrades, you do more than just increase your rent income. You get a better quality tenant, first of all, and secondly, if you get, say, 5% more rent depending on your leverage position, you might get 10% more cash flow, that money that you feel in your pocket every month. A lot of landlords don't even consider those two attributes right there. See, when you get 5% more rent for a unit your tenant, of course, they only have to pay 5% more, yet you yourself as the property provider, you're getting perhaps 8% or 10% or 12% more money in your pocket because of the leverage. And right there, I essentially just described the third crown of get rich. Education's inflation triple crown for you. That third crown is called Cash Flow enhancement. And really there's another, I guess, a third here wealth building attribute that you've accomplished through achieving a higher rent, and that is, if it happens to be a five plus unit apartment building, you also actually just increase the value of the entire property, since they are valued on the net operating income in the cap rate. So we're talking about vacancy, rent and real estate economics here with three distinct elements that I just described about how upgrading and achieving a higher rent gives you a lot of distinct advantages. The downside of it being that it takes more time. And there's another one. What are we up to here? A fourth upside to upgrading and achieving more asking rent, as opposed to doing the minimum for lower rent. And that is, well, it's your pride of ownership. I mean, you're providing good housing now your whole mission is not about altruism alone, but you'll feel like you're on a more fulfilling mission when you are like I often say, providing housing that's clean, safe, still affordable and functional. There's a fifth reason in that is that higher rents help you deal with higher operating expenses. But maybe it's beyond just the way in which you're thinking. And you know, a lot of people really don't understand this or put this together. In fact, I was talking with a real estate investor last month at the New Orleans investment conference. He was talking about rising insurance expenses on his properties, saying that he had one property that just had a insurance premium increase of 10% and he sounded a little disappointed, saying that, well, I can't get 10% more rent, but I've got this 10% higher insurance premium. So you know, he was thinking that he was losing? No, he's not necessarily losing, because in absolute dollar terms, you're charging your tenant multiples more in rent than what you're being charged in insurance. Say that you're charging 2000 bucks in rent on a unit. All right? Well, on a monthly basis, just say that your insurance payment works out to 200 bucks on that unit. All right. Well, with just 5% more rent, that's $2,100 a $100 increase, but if your insurance goes up 10% from 200 to 220 bucks, that's just a $20 increase. So right there in that example, your rent increase is half of your insurance rate increase percentage wise, but in dollar terms, your rent just went up five times as fast as your insurance did, and you are even more cash flow positive than you were previously. So the point is in your monthly profit and loss statement, your cash flow statement, on your property, even your pro forma, keep in mind that your rent amount, that is the biggest monthly number, and being attentive to it can cure so many ills. And when you realize this, this plethora of positives, if you will, it can make a decision to, yeah, do something like replace that old Berber carpet with new vinyl plank flooring, and make that look more attractive to you, and it's gonna look more attractive to your tenant, and you're probably gonna get a higher quality tenant than what you would have placed otherwise. And when you upgrade a unit, not only is your property worth more, but you usually don't pay a higher insurance premium as a result of making that upgrade at all, despite your higher valuation. In fact, sometimes lower rents are subsidized by deferred maintenance, like a leaky faucet or a big crack in a ceiling, all right, now all of these things are sort of hard economic facts when it comes to the relationship between landlord and tenant. Let me then tell you about a, I guess, softer sensibility. Okay, let's get touchy feely for a minute, and that is the words that we use. In fact, those very landlord and tenant words themselves. Back in 2021 there is a first of its kind, legislation that was proposed in Ohio to change references in their state law from the word landlord to housing provider and from the word tenant to resident. Now I think that the word landlord is a rather strange word. I mean, it's kind of weird that we're still using that term today. In fact, in the small town that I grew up in in Appalachia, it was not an affluent area at all, not even close. It was lower middle class. But even as a kid, I knew that my parents owned their home and that all of my friends' parents owned their homes too. It wasn't until I was about age 13 when the Petroski family moved into town, cowdersport, Pennsylvania. They were nice kids. I befriended them, and they soon started using the term landlord. I might have been about 13 until I had even heard the word landlord, and I still remember then that it struck me as a strange sounding term. Now it was all simple, small, single family homes where I grew up, like these 80 year old Victorian homes. No one tried to divide their yard with fences. People didn't lock their doors. It was great. And anyway, the petroskis lived in a single family home that the landlord, Mr. Hosley, had divided up into three separate, walled off units. That's before the term house hacking even existed. But in fact, landlord, it is a futile and perhaps outdated term, and I'd have to agree that, instead of landlord, the term housing provider, you know what better describes you and I's role and the relationship to our tenants or residents. I mean the word landlord that almost sounds like a person is totalitarian or dictatorial, when in fact, most landlords are people like you, smaller and family owned, not land barons. I mean, HUD will tell you that America has 10 to 11 million individual investor landlords, and they manage an average of just two units each. Okay? So hardly dictatorial, not some tyrant that's going around trying to evict everyone. Not despotic. Let me practice a little with you today, is, I'll try to use the term housing provider instead of landlord, as much as I can here see sometimes what happens in society is that the frustration of poverty gets loaded onto housing providers, and that sets up a system of enforcement that assumes that they have an interest in crushing the people that pay them to keep their property businesses running. And the reason that, say, a food provider like a grocer or an entertainment provider like a basketball team owner, you know, they just don't seem to be as unpopular as a housing provider. And one reason for that is because housing is expensive and it's also non discretionary, meaning that everyone has to have housing. So you might consider using the term housing provider more often than landlord, especially around your tenant, if your tenant thinks of you as a housing provider that has to pay. A mortgage and operating expenses every month, rather than a landlord that turns every dollar of rent income into pure profit, which is never true. Well, if they understand that, you're going to be doing better from a tenant relations standpoint, and that's also completely truthful as well. As far as that Ohio State law and changing the word tenant to resident. Yeah, over the years, I know that a lot of people favor that term, including a lot of our turnkey providers at GRE marketplace. I've rode around in cars with them, and they're talking about their market, and they prefer the term resident to tenant. Now, tenant is a feudal term as well. It refers to someone who occupies land from a lord. The more direct term from feudal times is the word vassal. You might remember that from high school, V, A, S, S, a, l, that means a holder of a land that pays allegiance to a lord. Somehow, to me, the word tenant, it just doesn't feel as futile or like it's almost part of a system of oppression, like the word landlord feels. Landlord feels like some king brooding over his serfs. In fact, the word tenant is actually helpful, because if you tell me that a person is a resident, I don't know whether they own or they rent, but if you tell me they're a tenant, I know that they're renting. So tenant helps, because it's more descriptive and tenant does not sound to me like someone is being oppressed, either. But in any case, consider using housing provider rather than landlord. Here in the soft skills department, it can be hard to remember to do that though you're listening to get rich education podcast episode 532 I'm your host, Keith Weinhold, education is in our name, and I've got more learning for you.

Let's discuss something new and learn about what H E i's are that stands for home equity investment, and see if one of them can help you now, HEI's. They're a pretty new way where you can access a chunk of your home's equity without you having to make any ongoing payments. I mean, does that sound amazing, or what? Okay, it does sound amazing. You get a chunk of money out of your property now without making any payments, but there are some downsides to heis, as you might have guessed, all right. Well, first, let's talk about the way that it works. Okay with an hei. What happens is that a portion of your home's equity is given to you in cash, especially given to you by an investment group. Hey, windfall moment sounds amazing, and it gets even better, because you can use the funds however you like. I mean, what could you do with an extra few 10s of 1000s of dollars or hundreds of 1000s of dollars in cash? Further, unlike some of the better known vehicles, like home equity lines of credit and home equity loans, there are truly no payments for you to make with these heis, again, home equity investment, that's what we're talking about here. And better yet, you can access your funds in as little as a few weeks. And, yes, I mean, this sounds amazing, but you have got to be wondering, what is the catch with HEI's, and there are some what is in it for the investor? Is this investment group? Well, when you're ready to settle the investment years down the road, they are going to be paid out their agreed upon share as the percentage of the sale price or the appraised value. All right. So as you balance that and think that through who is an HEI for, then it's good for a borrower like you, in case you don't have great credit, or if you have a high debt to income ratio, is especially great if you are house rich and cash poor. And the reason that I'm talking about heis now is that more people find themselves in that very situation today, house rich and cash poor, and that's because Americans are sitting on all time, record equity levels of more or less 300k today. All right, that is the house rich part and more Americans are cash poor today. That's due to higher inflation. All right. Well, now that you know the basics of what a home equity investment is and what the upsides are, what about the downsides? More downsides of feeling this near term windfall without you having to make any payments? Well, your mortgage company might block you from taking on an HEI because see what you're doing is you're taking on another lien holder. Understand that with. An Hei, you've now got more of a lien than you do a loan, and much like a reverse mortgage, heis can also have high fees, and additionally, down the road, that investor might take a big chunk of the home's appreciation, that stuff should all be laid out in your terms up front. So that's something you ought to be able to see coming. All right. Well, now we're a real estate investing show here, so you're probably wondering, okay, great, and you've been hearing me use the word home, but can you get it on your non owner occupied property? Yes, at times you can get an HEI on rental property, but the terms are probably going to be less advantageous, then they will be on your primary residence. Now you might see he is referred to as a product of financial innovation, which is sort of synonymous with another term, financial engineering. And you know, whenever you see those terms, you typically want to exercise caution. Now that alone doesn't mean that an HEI is wrong for you. And of course, with any investment type, although it's usually not your main decision driver, you're going to want to learn about the tax consequences as well. And you might note that home equity investments are also known as a Home Equity sharing agreement, and although that's a longer term, it is more descriptive, and it makes sense because you and an investor partner are essentially sharing in your home's equity together. Now, as a GRE follower, you're able to understand what an investment like this would mean to you and your financial future. Since the rate of return from home equity is always yes, always zero, with an Hei, now you can separate out some equity, and now you'll have the potential for dollars that can earn a return somewhere, and you're going to enjoy better liquidity as well. But Caveat emptor, buyer beware with heis.

The GRE studio has been mobilized a lot lately, as I am here in Anchorage, Alaska today. And what am I doing here? Well, besides studying the housing market, not any local one, but the national housing market. I have also been skiing this week. Hey, when it comes to subscribing to our newsletter, which I do write myself, you might not have realized something. I don't overwhelm your inbox. When you start subscribing, you'll get a welcome set of emails that send every other day for about 10 days, but that's just in the beginning. After that, my newsletter is only sent about weekly whenever there's something critical in the real estate investing world that you really need to know about. It's also brief. It's important to keep it short because your time is valuable. And have you ever noticed that even the word abbreviation is too long? Our don't with your Daydream newsletter is always less than a five minute read. It's usually less than a three minute read to get the letter just text GRE to 66866, right now, see even opting in to get my crucial letter is brief. Now you can text GRE to 66866, more. Next. I'm Keith Weinhold. You're listening to get rich education.

Oh, geez, the national average bank account pays less than 1% on your savings, so your bank is getting rich off of you. You've got to earn way more, or else you're losing your hard earned cash to inflation. Let the liquidity fund help you put your money to work with minimum risk, your cash generates up to a 10% return and compounds year in and year out. Instead of earning less than 1% in your bank account, the minimum investment is just 25k you keep getting paid until you decide you want your money back. Their decade plus track record proves they've always paid their investors 100% in full and on time. And you know how I'd know, because I'm an investor in this myself, earn 10% like me and giari listeners are. Text FAMILY to 66866, to learn about freedom. Family investments, liquidity fund on your journey to financial freedom through passive income. Text FAMILY to 66866

Hey, you can get your mortgage loans at the same place where I get mine at Ridge lending group NMLS, 42056, they provided our listeners with more loans than any provider in the entire nation because they specialize in income properties. They help you build a long term plan for growing your real estate empire with leverage. You can start your pre qualified. And chat with President Caeli Ridge personally. Start now while it's on your mind at Ridge lendinggroup.com that's Ridge lendinggroup.com.

Tarek El Moussa 30:17

What's up? Everyone? This is hgtvs Tarek El Moussa. Listen to get rich education with Keith Weinhold, and don't quit your Daydream.

Keith Weinhold 30:34

Welcome back to get rich Education. I'm your host. Keith Weinhold, it's been said that in your life, what you're not changing. You're choosing loads of investors in the 401K or conventional investment plans. They aren't changing the fact that they're only getting their money to work for them. So they're choosing to deny ethically, getting other people's money to work for them, and that's why they have no option other than to work full time until they're old. Well, when you're that savvy borrower now, you're benefiting from both the asset leverage and the inflation profiting, as we know and the way to keep both your leverage high and the inflation profiting on your debt high is to intermittently change the fulcrum on your lever so that you don't have too much equity accumulating in your portfolio. And you also want to be investing in an inflationary environment be a debt DECA millionaire. Remember that term that I introduced to you here a few years ago, if you had ten million in debt at 3% inflation, you're profiting 300k per year just from that alone. Yes, the paradoxically glamorous life of having 10 million in debt, but it's all tied to income properties, so that your tenants make the pay down for you, and inflation pays it down even faster that debt DECA millionaire, he's obviously got to be a pretty creditworthy person in order to get ten million in debt in the first place. Yep, building lasting wealth is not conventional at all. And for the debtor, inflation is therefore your wealth building, friend. It's why, when you see your favorite can of La Columba cold brew coffee, which is a favorite of mine, gosh, it's nice and frothy. If you know, you know, in fact, I'm gonna crack this La Colombe triple draft latte to enjoy after the sh ow there. Did you hear that? No, I don't have any sponsorship with them, but when you see that cold brew price go from $4 to $5 well, that effect makes most people poorer. Some people think that effect makes everyone poor, but it's not making you and I poorer. It's enriching us. When you see consumer price inflation like that, there's a good chance that asset price inflation is occurring as well, and that's why seeing higher prices at grocery stores is probably a subtle signal that you are better off, not worse off. You're better off because you know how to arrange your financial life for inflation rather than being impoverished by it. Congratulations. Let's drink to that with a La Colombe coffee. What you're doing is you are swimming with the river flow, and almost everyone you know is struggling because they chose to swim against the inflationary river flow. See the way that almost everyone that you know goes about earning their income is that they only earn their income once, and they earn it at their job. In an inflationary world, you effectively have to earn your Fiat dollar twice, once when you work for it, and once again, when you invest to beat inflation, otherwise that dollar is just going to evaporate. And that seems so unfair. I mean, why should a surgeon or an athlete, engineer, programmer, accountant, why should those people that are successful in their field and serve society. Why should they have to develop expertise in a second field? Why do they have to do this just to maintain the wealth that they've already built, that they produced out on the free market? Why can't you have a store of value for the future? Inflation is the answer. So they need to develop expertise in a second field, and that's why listening to content just like this is therefore not optional, but it's actually mandatory in this cycle, CPI inflation peaked at 9.1% two and a half years ago, and despite that, has come down quite a bit. It's. A little elevated. It's still not down to the Fed's transparently stated 2% target, and by the way, there is another Fed meeting in two days. If the Fed cuts rates more, bond yields could go higher, which means mortgage rates tend to go higher. Inflation is powerful. A lot of people will tell you that it is the main reason why Jamie Carter wasn't re elected president in 1980 and today they'll tell you why. It's the main reason that it brought down the Biden Harris administration. But see, here's the thing, if you're able to obtain loans in the United States and some other developed countries, understand that you're in a sweet spot, and that sweet spot is a level of inflation that's actually low to moderate by world standards, and not hyper inflationary. All right. Now I know what you might be thinking. You're thinking like, oh, well, hyperinflation would be tremendous for a leveraged real estate investor. Now, why, though, would I say that we don't want hyperinflation? Well, there are countries with a history of hyperinflation, like Turkey, Argentina, Venezuela, Zimbabwe, Iran, they have a history of massive currency devaluation. Let's see what happens then is that financing becomes almost non existent in those places. When that happens, I mean history over hunches. History shows us that in places like that, forget about getting home mortgages, investor loans, a credit card, consumer debt, small business loans, unless maybe a usurious interest rates. If the US had a history of hyperinflation or even sustained bouts of really high inflation, then you know what cooperation between borrowers and lenders becomes nearly impossible. Even those governments of those countries, they have trouble borrowing money, except maybe at maturities of a few months. And you know, I always like to make a borrowing lending example with you and your friend. Okay, you don't want to loan your friend $1,000 for a year in hyperinflation, because if the inflation rate were 1,000% then, after a year, the $1,000 that your friend would pay you back, well, that's only $100 worth of purchasing power. Now, all right, that's why, if the US had one bout of hyperinflation, you know, maybe that would be good, because it would seriously wipe out all of your debts one time. If there became a history of that, though, then you might not get access to loans at all. I mean, who would be crazy enough to finance your growing real estate portfolio in hyperinflation? So the fact that globally, the US has low to moderate inflation levels. I mean, that can be a good thing, that inflation is most of the time, a more surreptitious force. It largely went without notice until the pandemic made it flare up and made that LA Columbia cold brew coffee go up, and made property prices and rents go up all while you're fixed. Mortgage payments stayed the same, totally sheltered from the inflation. All right. Well, if my solution to beat inflation by taking on debt and thinking about it that way, if that's not iconoclastic enough, I've got a different strategy for beating inflation, and I think that I did quickly mention this here about a year ago when Doug Casey was our guest on the show.

But yes, I do have another strategy for beating inflation, and it is controversial. It is almost blasphemy to say this out loud on any finance related show this inflation beating strategy, it's guaranteed to improve your quality of life, okay, no speculation here. A guarantee of improving your quality of life is so simple, anyone can easily do it. In fact, you even have companies competing with other companies to get you to do this, and the answer is to spend your money. Yes, I said it out loud. It guarantees that you'll improve your life. It's simple to do. Various counterparties are competing all over the place with each other. They're falling all over each other every single day to try to get you to do this well, as long as you've invested well first and you have ample liquidity by having a healthy relationship with spending there if that crew. Is to the Spanish Riviera in Majorca, is going to cost you $10,000 this year, but it'll be $11,000 next year. Then spend the money today and beat inflation. Yes, I said it. Spend some of your money if you've been listening to this show and following the guidance here, yes, you can afford to do it. I mean, what is money for anyway? And sadly, some like conventional finance professionals, they are reluctant to tell you to spend your money because they're compensated by the percent of your assets that they hold under management. Inflation makes borrowing and spending, then two irresponsible sounding things, borrowing and spending make complete sense when you do it right, like income properties tied to fixed rate loans.

Hey, why? I've got some cool announcements to share with you now and in future months here on the show, I've got a big collaboration coming up with long time friend of GRE here, Robert Helms of the real estate guys and I together. You'll learn more about that in the future. But first coming up this Saturday, the 21st at 3pm Eastern, over on YouTube, I am going to reveal GRE 's national home price appreciation forecast. So yes, to the nearest percent, I'll tell you exactly how much home price appreciation that you will get, an exact number, how much to expect in the US next year. Or, Hey, maybe I think that home prices will make a rare fall next year, what you're going to get that number, if that's what I forecast, you can go to our get rich education YouTube channel anytime here and make sure that you set a notification so that you are informed again. That's Saturday the 21st at 3pm eastern over on our get rich education YouTube channel, I expect that that information is going to benefit you.

Hey, if you appreciate the show here, do you think that you could help me out in just one small way? Call it my Christmas gift request. There's just one item on my Christmas list with you, and it should only take a couple minutes of your time leave a podcast rating and review for the show on Apple podcasts or Spotify. The rating is the five star thing. The review is a few sentences about what you get out of the show here. I would really appreciate the, I suppose, gift from you, and I will read your review myself too, if you don't know how to do it right inside those listener apps. Just open up a browser tab and search how to leave an apple podcast review or Spotify podcast review, or whatever platform you prefer to listen on. Yeah, it would feel like a little Christmas gift to me after all these months and years of listening, go ahead and provide me with some feedback. Tell me what you think, and thanks so much. Until next week, I'm your host. Keith Weinhold, don't quit your Daydream.

Dolf Deroos 43:10

Keith Weinhold 43:38

The preceding program was brought to you by your home for wealth, building, get rich, education.com

Direct download: GREepisode532_.mp3
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Mon, 9 December 2024

From railroad conductor to becoming a successful real estate investor and replacing his day job in just 3 years. On today’s episode, Keith chats with one of our very own GRE listeners, Grant Francke, about what he did to build his portfolio to quit his steady union job.

Hear about the importance of having a clear "why" for investing and setting specific goals.

We discuss the concept of inflation profiting on debt and how it contributes to wealth building

Leveraging cash-out refinances and 1031 exchanges as a strategy to scale up and diversify.

Resources:

Check out Grant Francke’s book “The Unlikely Investor” here.

Show Notes:

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530: Why We Hate Jeff Bezos

Complete episode transcript:

Automatically Transcribed With Otter.ai

Keith Weinhold 0:01

welcome to GRE. I'm your host. Keith Weinhold, it's a highly relatable show today because you're going to meet a fellow GRE listener and real estate investor like you that use the principles of this show to build wealth, and he reached real estate financial freedom even faster than I did today on get rich education.

Mid south home buyers, I mean, they're total pros, with over two decades as the nation's highest rated turnkey provider, their empathetic property managers use your ROI as their North Star. So it's no wonder that smart investors just keep lining up to get their completely renovated income properties like it's the newest iPhone. They're headquartered in Memphis and have globally attractive cash flows, an A plus rating with a better business bureau and now over 5000 houses renovated. There's zero markup on maintenance. Let that sink in, and they average a 98.9% occupancy rate, while their average renter stays more than three and a half years. Every home they offer has brand new components, a bumper to bumper, one year warranty, new 30 year roofs, and wait for it, a high quality renter. Remember that part and in an astounding price range, 100 to 180k I've personally toured their office and their properties in person in Memphis, get to know Mid South. Enjoy cash flow from day one, start yourself right now at mid south homebuyers.com that's mid south homebuyers.com

Keith Weinhold

when you want the best real estate and finance info, the modern Internet experience limits your free articles access, and it's a replete with paywalls, and you get pop ups and push notifications and cookies disclaimers, ugh. And no other time in history has it been more vital to place nice, clean, free content in your hands that actually adds no hype value to your life. That's why this is the golden age of quality newsletters, and I write ours myself. It's got a dash of humor, and it is to the point to get it. It couldn't be more simple. Just type up a text message with the letters G, R, E in the body and send it to the phone number, 66866, and when you start the free newsletter, you'll also get my one hour fast real estate course, completely free. Subscribe to my Don't quit your Daydream newsletter, and your mind will be wired for wealth. Text GRE to 66866, text GRE to 66866.

Corey Coates 2:57

you're listening to the show that has created more financial freedom than nearly any show in the world. This is get rich education.

Keith Weinhold 3:13

Welcome to GRE from Washington Crossing Pennsylvania to cross City Florida and across one area, nations worldwide, you're listening to one of America's longest running and most listened to real estate shows. I'm Keith Weinhold, and you're listening to get rich education here for you every single Monday, every week, without fail. This is the voice of real estate investing Since 2014 you know, being successful in real estate such that you can quit your job when you're young enough to enjoy it is counter cultural, even kind of Bohemian. I mean, just imagine telling yourself this or saying this to somebody else. First, I had a lot of debt, then my situation got even better, because we had a surge of high inflation, and it's all making me rich. To that, most conventional financial wisdom would reply like, Dude, are you nuts? Maybe. But I'll tell you what, I'm not normal. I wouldn't want to be normal. That's a real pejorative, right there. Normalcy is, like, slanderous. Yep, you gotta get iconoclastic. Well, it's all grounded in fundamentals. Yep, inflation dilutes your debt for you, and it's almost perfectly predictable that that's gonna happen too by following principles just like that aligned with GRE 's inflation triple crown, and that real estate pays five ways. The guest that you'll meet today, yeah, he did reach financial freedom faster than I did. You're gonna hear about how he did it. It's like I've said on the show here before. I am divulging to you the information that I wish I had when I started out, because if I had this when I began, I would have reached financial freedom sooner. You know, after I bought my first ever income property, that fourplex, I didn't buy my next investment property for almost five years. Okay, it was not a fast timeline for me, but after about four years from buying that seminal first property, I started analyzing what it was doing for me, and I well, not only wanted to buy more, but I would soon learn that really the lessons I extracted from that property, I ended up articulating that in ways that no one else that I know of has. Today's listener guest is from a Midwestern MSA of 343,000 people that we haven't discussed on the show before, at least in any detail. And that's also the market that he invests in. Let's meet him.

Keith Weinhold 6:05

From time to time, we like to have a GRE listener on the show to learn about how the show has changed their life, and also discover you know just what you're out there doing as a real estate investor. And this is because other listeners can find these episodes so relatable. Today's listener guest is from Nebraska, and he listened to GRE in the commute to and from his job for years back when he still had one, because he's a success story. Since he has replaced his day job income with rental properties in just three years, which is a remarkably fast timeline, and now he's got more time freedom for his passions or for his family and kids. So we're gonna learn about how he did that. Hey, welcome to the show. GRE listener GrantFrancke, Thanks, Keith. Honored to be here. Frankie is spelled F, R, a, n, C, K, E, and Grant, this is great that you've been on this fast timeline to produce financial freedom. But before we talk about that, let's back up. Tell us about your beginning like your family situation in your now, I guess former job.

Grant Francke 7:09

great question. So I started it out as a conductor for BNSF Railways. So I was a trained conductor. I started out there pretty much right out of high school. It's a great job if you don't have any family or kids because you're gone all the time you work crazy hours. Yeah. So it was great before I was married, but then I got married, I was like, I don't really love this as much. And then once we had our two kids, I was like, I've got to find something else that can get me that time, freedom to spend more time with them. And stumbled on real estate and started going that route.

Keith Weinhold 7:40

Some people don't have that mindset. They justify working overtime because, well, I'm away from my kids, but I'm working for them, but with financial freedom, you really can have both a time for your children when you want it and the income that you desire a railroad conductor. So I believe that's different from a railroad engineer, right? The railroad engineer is the person that kind of drives the train and changes the speed in the conductor. They're the one that's sort of making sure that the staff and the cargo and the passengers are taken care of. Is that what a railroad conductor does?

Grant Francke 8:12

Yep. So we only did cargo freight, so I was in charge of, like, how fast we could go, what was all in the train, talking to the dispatcher and making sure we're going the right directions and and taking the right sightings, and then if anything broke down on the train, we'd have to go back and take care of it. But yes, the engineer is the one who he physically drives a train, and we're kind of like the co pilot.

Keith Weinhold 8:32

You talked about how you were away, and it takes an awful lot of hours. You based there in Nebraska, geographically, what kind of routes Did you run?

Grant Francke 8:41

It's 300 miles from Lincoln. So I was based out of Lincoln Nebraska. So it's about 300 miles, yeah, so we did to Kansas City, cook Nebraska, some places out in Iowa, up north, to Sioux City. And those trips ranged from 36 to 48 hours, round trip for us to be gone and back.

Keith Weinhold 8:58

making the economy run there, but this was, you know, rather time consuming, obviously pretty disruptive to one schedule there when you're working long shifts or away for these long periods of time. So okay, it sounds like you got the idea that you wanted something where you could control your time better. There are so many ways to produce income in an informal sense, there's entrepreneurship, which might be something like you could have launched your own app or started a donut shop. Then there's something more passive when it comes to investing. I mean, most people that are working at a job, they even think, Oh, hey, I have my investing bucket covered because I invest through my employer in 401k and that's good enough. But somehow you must have had this notion in you that this wasn't good enough. So tell us about how and why real estate.

Grant Francke 9:42

I've always been like, somewhat handy. So I was gonna go and just be a GC or a handyman. I was Googling around, and I found a post that said that the best customers for handymen are landlords, because they keep you busy and they always got work. I was like, Oh, that's great idea. So I stumbled upon a podcast. Where it was a handyman who became a landlord, he recommended a book on there called Rich Dad, Poor Dad. So I went and got that book, and then my life was changed after that.

Keith Weinhold 10:11

It's amazing how that little purple book influences so many of us. Okay, so that sort of opened you up to the concept of real estate investing and Rich Dad content is terrific. A lot of times, though, it doesn't really get down into the nuts and bolts too much. So just in your educational journey, where did you progress from the rich dad school of thought?

Grant Francke 10:30

Yeah, so Rich Dad, Poor Dad kind of taught me about that not spending your giving your time for money is creating that loop of the money. So after that, you know, I started off just listening to all the podcasts. You know, I'd listen to your podcast, bigger pockets, Kathy Fettke, I'd listen to all those just on repeat, reading all the books that I could get my hands on. Because I was just once, I started learning about real estate. And it did scratch that entrepreneurial bug that I did have. It kind of gave me the both of the passive income and being able to build a business for myself as well. So I just went through all the education that I possibly could, podcasts, books, you name it. I was obsessed with it.

Keith Weinhold 11:08

Yeah, all right. Well, it's all about doing the right thing before you do things right, like we say here on the show. All right. So it sounds like you were confident that you were doing the right thing. You were in real estate. Tell us about the start, especially buying that first property. What was that like?

Grant Francke 11:25

Yeah, it was nerve wracking, right? It was a small, up down duplex in Lincoln, Nebraska. It's really one of my only properties I've actually gotten that's been on the market on the MLS. Just got an agent went and bought it and it was a good deal, like it cash flowed. Well, I took it down. I was managing it myself, and I still do manage my portfolio myself. I do vividly remember, like sitting in the living room of that doing my showings, and I just did after three or four showings, I couldn't get it rented, and I was listening to one of your podcasts, and you were talking about the different ways that real estate pays you, besides the income, and that really kept me motivated. This is a long term journey. This isn't a short term get rich quick thing. You know, by getting a tenant in there, it might take a month, but then they're going to pay down your note, you're going to get the tax benefits, you're going to get all those different items Flowing into you from real estate. So I remember that vividly from that first deal is listening to Keith in the living room.

Keith Weinhold 12:16

Yeah, being a profiteer in real estate, it's a little, maybe just a little like the iceberg analogy. Maybe only the top 20% of the iceberg is visible in what you see as profit. You're thinking about monthly income, and maybe you're thinking about appreciation. You don't see everything else below the iceberg that's underwater, I should say rather, like the inflation profiting on the debt and the loan amortization in the great basket of tax benefits, you sent me a paper letter earlier this year. One thing you wrote about is how the show influenced you, because you vividly remember sitting on the floor of your first ever vacant rental unit. So presumably it was in this Nebraska duplex, one of those units we're talking about here in this the show kept you motivated. You thought you were failing because you didn't get the unit rented after the first three showings, which I think we know now is sort of funny. That's really normal, even in a good rental market. You know, it could take more showings than three until you get the right match between a tenant that wants the unit and a tenant you'd accept. I mean, the tenant themselves, they have to accept all sorts of things. Uh, maybe they don't like the parking situation. Your unit layout has to be right. In my first ever property, which, as you know, was a four Plex, one problem I had is some tenants just didn't like the fact that the only bathroom in these four Plex units was upstairs. And then it's funny, as soon as you get the showing, say it's the sixth showing that you get it rented out, the problem's over. It's solved. You're back to 100% occupancy. And you wonder why you ever thought you had a problem. That's just sort of how that goes.

Grant Francke 13:43

Yeah, hindsight is always 2020. It's really stressful in the moment, but just keeping in mind that the different ways it pays you the different avenues of income that come from it, and that's even something like it was conceptually, I understood it, but it really didn't take effect for me till it was like five, six years down the road, and you go, look at your loan balance, and you look at what the inflation's done, you're like, well, that's a substantial amount of money that you've made just passively getting your tenants to pay down your debt.

Keith Weinhold 14:09

Yeah, some don't even think about the fact that your tenant is paying down your principal for you, an advantage that homeowners don't have, because homeowners, they just have $1 that goes from their cash pocket over to their equity pocket every month. But in your rental property, your tenant is doing that for you, and then inflation is, in almost all cases, paying down your loan silently, even faster than what that tenant is doing for you.

Grant Francke 14:31

It's amazing concept. Once you can can, can wrap your head around it

Keith Weinhold 14:35

all right, so you started with this duplex in your local area, Nebraska. Is there anything else to say about that first property, or is it more about the growth from there? That's more, yeah, it was

Grant Francke 14:46

the growth from there. That one was just like I said, kind of a base hit, and then we started scaling up after that. So my next purchase was another duplex, and I happened to find it on Craigslist, back when that was a thing, that you could find properties on Craigslist, and it was actually a retired engineer, rare. Order that was selling a duplex. I was like, Oh, this is great. We hit it off really well. Had a great transaction. I closed on time. I did what I said I was going to do, and then I was looking around on the assessor's website, and he had five more single family houses that were clearly rentals. I told him at the closing table. I'm like, Hey, if you ever want to sell those rentals, just let me know. You know, I'd love to scale our portfolio up. He ended up offering to sell or finance me those five properties with a minimum down payment. Well, just because we had just a great relationship, I showed up, I did what I said I was going to do, we ended up getting seven properties from that guy.

Keith Weinhold 15:33

Wow, that is huge, a way to scale up fast. So just with your behavior, your work ethic, the fact that you did what you said you were gonna do, you know, that engendered some sort of interest in the other party to offer you, seller financing. What percent down did you put on that next batch of properties?

Grant Francke 15:50

We did 10% down, great, and we had 5% interest on it, and we had a balloon payment due in, I think it was seven years so funny story about that. He sold all his rental properties. He was going to Florida to retire and just relax and and be a retired guy. He called me about two and a half years later. He's like, Hey, I still have the bug. I found a property I want to buy. Is there any way you could refinance the seller financing and close out my notes so I can use that capital to buy something? I was like, Yeah, Larry, I get it. Yeah. Let me see. I'll talk to the bank and see what I can do. But in those two years, I had done enough improvements in those properties and raised the rents, took care of them. When I went to refinance those five properties, I was able to pay two of them off, so I only had a loan on three and pay him back on the proceeds. So throughout that transaction, I pretty much had two properties free and clear, and then three houses on 30 year notes from Fannie and Freddie.

Keith Weinhold 16:44

How did you come up for the down payments with all this? Was this something you were able to do with income from the job as a railroad conductor?

Grant Francke 16:52

Well, that refinance was more like a burr model, so I was able to do all that with the equity inside that property. So those five single families that are refinanced. Was just all the equity inside those properties. So I didn't have to put any more money out. It was just the equity that was able to pay off the other two. And then I had the three on the notes, from appreciation, from appreciation, and, yeah, forced appreciation. So I was fixing up the units, raising the rents, you know, changing out flooring, redoing bathrooms, doing all that myself while I was still at my w2 job.

Keith Weinhold 17:21

Okay, really getting hands on, because you do have this bent of sort of a GC or a handyman, something that I personally didn't have, maybe this would have accelerated my wealth building faster had I done that. You're realizing that a source, you know, it doesn't have to be your own money from your own job. When you've got leverage, and you had 10 to one leverage on these, I believe it was what five single family homes that you had added seller financing that really multiplies you wealth substantially faster compound leverage, rather than compound interest. But a lot of people just let that equity die in their properties, rather than pulling it out a tax free event through a cash out refinance and moving it along.

Grant Francke 18:03

Yep. So we kept that process on. We buy a duplex that was needs some repairs. Nothing like crazy rundown, but you fix it up over 6,12, months, you do a refinance, and you just keep that ball rolling. And it makes the whole process really easy.

Keith Weinhold 18:15

I know that you are pretty open to discussing your assets, discussing your unit mix. So tell us about more of that expansion. What you brought it up to, and the exciting time when you've replaced your salary because you had enough income from the units.

Grant Francke 18:31

Yeah, so we would just keep that snowball method going of refinancing those two paid off properties we had, we had a line of credit against those as well, if we needed that for a down payment, or if we wanted to pay cash for something, we could use that leverage, that money from the bank and buy the property, do the refinance at the end, and pay it all back. And, you know, be out of pocket with minimal cash out of pocket for us. We just kind of kept that process going. And then once we had about 30 units, I would say so, about three years. So I started buying in 16, and then in September of 2019 is when I resigned from BNSF Railway and went full time.

Keith Weinhold 19:06

That's a great timeline. You mentioned some paid off properties there. And you know how I'm the proponent of leverage in good debt in all of them. But really you talked about despite the fact that you had, I think, two paid off properties, it sounds like single family homes. Early on, you were still able to leverage the fact that they were paid off as collateral for getting more loans. So you are still using those as other people's money despite the fact that they were paid off.

Grant Francke 19:31

Absolutely we still use it to this day. That's if we need a down payment, if we need a chunk of cash. That's where we go to is grab those from that line of credit.

Keith Weinhold 19:39

Talk to us more about sort of the sourcing of the financing. There were you getting together with some local banks in order to get good terms where you can collateralize some of your existing portfolios assets?

Grant Francke 19:52

So we used to use a small community bank here in Nebraska. I started with them, probably 2018 and I've been with them since you just create a really good relation. With them. They trust me. They know what I'm doing. They know if I bring them a deal like I'm not hiding anything, I'm not showing them certain numbers, it looks better like they trust what I'm doing. I trust that they're going to take care of me as well. It's always good to have a few in their back pocket. But if you have a really good relationship with one small community bank, it can take you pretty far.

Keith Weinhold1 20:18

Tell us about how you built that relationship with the community bank. I think a lot of people hear about how to do that. This doesn't mean going bowling with a banker and having to be your buddy for watching the NFL on the weekend. So I guess, how do you demonstrate that you're a capable business person to a local bank in order to get good treatment?

Grant Francke 20:37

That's a great question. So my first couple deals, I created a full deal pitch deck sheet that I brought in in a laminated folder of pictures, timelines, my past history of what I've done. So I started off on the right foot of showing them that I was very professional. And then the same thing, like with Larry, with the seller finance properties, I showed up. I did what I said I was going to do. I didn't close late. I always was on time. I was on time for my meetings. I was on time for my closings, just staying top of mind with them too. So if I didn't have a deal going on, I'd stop in when I was depositing some laundry change and just chat with my banker or chat with the check guy, and just make sure I stay top of mind with them.

Keith Weinhold 21:14

Yeah, it's a little bit like how people classically think about as interviewing for a job. It sort of sounds like you took a page out of that book, and you're sort of interviewing for a loan, if you will, tell us about your portfolio size now, and kind of what that asset mix is like.

Grant Francke 21:30

yeah, so we're up to about 120 units now, all in the Lincoln Nebraska area, all multi family, small, multi family. We saw those single family houses we hold on to. But otherwise it ranges from duplexes, four plexes, some six, eight units are mixed in there as well. So we're still just buying, like, just boring cash flowing deals. That's one thing I always say is, like, I just buy boring real estate. I don't want anything super stressful or super crazy, like, I'm not infilling to build ADUs. I'm just buying boring cash flowing rental properties.

Keith Weinhold 22:02

It really can be pretty boring. Real estate is really slow moving. Yeah, it's almost like the more boring the area of the nation that you invest in, the more likely that it's not a trendy place. And, you know, people are wearing Carhartt rather than Lulu Lemon. It's almost like that's an indicator of what a good market is we're talking with Grant Francke. He's a GRE listener. He's telling us how he built his portfolio from being a railroad conductor to going ahead and doing this on the side and leaving his day job. When we come back, we're going to talk about, was he nervous and like just what level did he have to get to before he had the confidence to quit his job and replace his salary. You're listening. To get rich, education more. We come back. I'm your host. Keith Weinhold.

Keith Weinhold 22:02

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Caeli Ridge 24:35

this is Ridge lending group's president, Caeli Ridge listen To get rich education with Keith Weinhold, and remember, don't quit your Daydream.

Keith Weinhold 24:55

Welcome back to get rich education. It's one of my favorite types of episodes because we're talking about a GRE listener, much like you, with what you can do, where he started, what the architecture of his portfolio building was, and a big part of that is you don't really want to be debt free in real estate. You want to be financially free. You want to build enough income in order to replace the income from your day job. I want to talk about that part grant replacing your salary. That sounds really good in concept, we know that's what you need to do. When I personally was at that point, I still remember how scared I was to walk out from my cubicle where I was employed at a State Department of Transportation and walk across the hall and tell my boss's boss, Therese, that I'm giving my two weeks notice. I've got to admit, I was still scared. My heart's still racing a little bit just bringing it up and talking about it. So why don't you tell us about at what point you replaced your salary?

Grant Francke 25:55

My wife's an accountant. She's really good at like, Excel spreadsheets, so we made an Excel spreadsheet that factored in the tax benefits of real estate that I would get as a full time real estate investor. What my income was. I went to the lowest paying job at the railroad just to see if we could live off of that paycheck. So once we hit that cash flow number, which was, it wasn't a great big number, it was like 4800 a month or something, once we hit that number, she said, All right, I think we can do it. We're good to go. So I went in, and I only had one of my buddies at the railroad that knew I was going to resign that day. I was going to go in and resign, then clean out my locker. I got there, it was like, well, I'll just clean my locker out first and then make sure this is exactly what I want to do. I got my locker cleaned out. Everything was in my truck, and I walked in, and it was the most terrifying thing that I've ever done, you're walking away from a great union job with a heck of a pension that I've been there for at that time, 13 years, you know. So I had some seniority built up. I just went back to like my family again and thinking about all the times I'm going to spend with my kids, with my wife, the trips we'll be able to take, the memories we're going to be able to make, and the hard work that I put in those first three years of just grinding doing all the work myself, managing all the properties myself, that gave me that push. I was like, No, I can do this. These numbers make sense. The math adds up, and we're going to make it work. That's

Keith Weinhold 27:13

great. And by the way, I also walked away from a union job with the pension guaranteed retirement benefits, and they were guaranteed in the state's constitution because I had a state government job, so that pension wasn't going to go away, and I just went ahead and walked away from all that. Yeah, it certainly is a scary thing. It takes a certain level of confidence in order to go ahead and quit your job. But here's what I think, Confidence comes on the person that you made yourself be to on the side, build this portfolio and become the type of person that can demonstrate to a local bank that you're credit worthy and that you're an ethical operator. That's sort of a skill set that you build, such that if something went wrong and you had to go get a job again, you just sort of have a skill set where you know you could get another job. That's the confidence to quit.

Grant Francke 28:05

Yeah, once I had that confidence, built up and confidence in myself, you're kind of trained as even a man, just to not be proud, you know what I mean. But once I was proud of myself and what I built, it gave you that confidence, that I could walk in and say, No, I can do this on my own. I don't need this job. I'm done with it.

Keith Weinhold 28:20

Right to not need an employer. So not only walking away from a union and pension benefits and a paycheck, you're also walking away from paid vacation days and paid holidays. But yeah, I mean, part of that confidence is like, I know that I can, you know, furnish this myself. I'm not dependent. I don't need someone else. And that's really that feeling of freedom.

Grant Francke 28:42

Yep, absolutely, it's a very freeing feeling.

Keith Weinhold 28:45

On this show, a lot of investors start out with single family homes and part of that scaling process, and I really help encourage, hey, the rate of return from home equity is always zero on doing a cash out refinance, or a 1031 exchange, and at some point, say, maybe your single family homes, you probably have a few that are less desirable than others. Maybe you have a few single family homes in your rental portfolio that have higher interest rates. You just have a few where you just can't seem to keep them occupied very long. They're the ones that are ripe for doing a 1031 exchange or a cash out refinance. Why don't you talk more about sort of those next sets of properties where you might relinquish a couple single family homes and get into some of those properties, a four Plex, a six Plex, an eight Plex, a 10 Plex, and just sort of some of the differences in managing, since you're still self managing, is that right?

Grant Francke 29:37

Yeah, we just actually completed our first 1031 exchange about two months ago. Great. Oh, yeah. So we actually sold two duplexes. So we sold four units and bought 17 in the 1031 exchange. The cash flow is going to be as we buy them right now. We're getting a little bit better cash flow. But you know, the ability to scale that and the management side, for me is much easier. If I would rather manage 117 unit than 17 single families, spread out all the way around. I only have one lawn to work worry about, totally on one roof. I have one sewer system to worry about. It seems scary in the beginning, but now that why I'm at where I'm at, I would much rather take down a 10 Plex than 10 single family houses.

Keith Weinhold 30:19

100%. oftentimes single family homes, you know, they tend to be scattered. They're probably not all going to be in the same development that introduces management difficulties. Of course, I circumvent that because I totally use professional management for all of my properties. So that's really not problem or a hold up for me, where it sure would be with you. Yeah, there really is that mental leap. I've owned a few properties that have been 10 plexes or in that area, and there are just things to do with there that we know we don't need to deal with in single family homes or duplexes, there might be one central communal laundry room that you have to manage. And you know, how are you going to keep that clean? I had one particular eight Plex building while the kids just had their bicycles parked here and there in the front yard, and it looked junky. And my property manager built a screen, just like a fence, where you had to keep your bicycles behind there, and that really increased the curb appeal of the place. If that's a single family home, you don't really care so much about that grant. I once had an 11 unit building. It had four units on the top floor, four units on the middle floor and three units on the bottom floor. There was a laundry room where the fourth would have been. So we had 11 families live there, and there were about 14 parking spots for this 11 Plex building. And figuring out who was going to park where was a real mess. Some people had more than one car. Some people had seniority, so they felt like they should have gotten some of the spots we had the building next door where people tried to park at our 14 spots. That was such a mess. I told my property manager to you, go figure it out. You go assign the spot. So my point is, there are a whole bunch of dynamics when you kind of get into this 10 or so unit area that you just don't have with rental, single family homes.

Grant Francke 31:58

Absolutely. Yeah, I've had to have many conversations with people telling them I manage properties, not parking. I don't just figure it out be adults. I don't want to hear about your parking dilemmas, which I get too. You know, you also have, you have noise complaints, and you want to make sure everybody's being respectful of their neighbors when you get into those bigger buildings. So there are definitely pros and cons. But boy, if I, if I could have a 10 single families on the same street, that would be, you know, ideal management wise, that would be a lot easier, but it's just tough to get everything together.

Keith Weinhold 32:24

Is there any other guidance you can give with scaling up? Because a lot of people just continue to let so much equity accumulate in any one property, and they're not scaling up, you're sort of leaving some meat on the bone. There any other strategic things one can think through?

Grant Francke 32:38

Just take advantage of your cash out refinances when you can, I'm a proponent of leverage, but not over leveraged to where your negative cash flow on it, if you can cash out, refinance, pull your equity out, and still be making some money off of it, that's really going to allow you to scale over time, a lot larger than just holding that one duplex and waiting for it to give you that cash flow, that financial freedom. You really got to take that equity out, spread it out over multiple properties, and then watch them all scale up at the same time.

Keith Weinhold 33:05

There's probably less risk when one does that. People are averse to making that move because they think about how they're taking on more debt. But the more you cash out and scatter it into more properties, you've got more diversification geographically, if you want to. And really, I think the mindset that helps people with this is, when you do a cash out refinance, you didn't lose any equity. You really transferred some of your equity.

Grant Francke 33:30

yep, tax free too, which is something you harp on, like it's tax free money. You get to walk away and not pay taxes on it.

Keith Weinhold 33:38

It's really amazing. All right, well, so you have a substantial portfolio of about 120 units in is it all in and around Lincoln Nebraska?

Grant Francke 33:47

Yep, Lincoln Nebraska and a couple small communities around there, some more college type towns that have industries in them as well. But all the Lincoln Nebraska area.

Keith Weinhold 33:55

we don't talk about Lincoln Nebraska here on the show very often. What kind of personality does the market have? Whether that's, you know, like you mentioned, is there a preponderance of student housing? Are there particular economic sectors that really help float and drive that market? Tell us about Lincoln as a real estate investment market.

Grant Francke 34:13

Like I said, with boring real estate, it's a great boring real estate town. We've got a couple universities in Lincoln. It's a big ag area, obviously, so surrounded by the the ag industry. But it's also got some great tech jobs that are coming in. It's just a very steady it doesn't have a lot of the ups and downs. You know, 2008 was obviously tough with everybody, but there wasn't this massive housing correction here. We're just kind of slow and steady, which is that's kind of my pace.

Keith Weinhold 34:39

typical of what I call a stable market, where, conversely, you tend to have the volatile markets that are on the coast. I'm going to imagine in 2008 it didn't go down in value nearly as much as markets, but in the big housing price run up in 2021, I'm going to guess you got some really nice appreciation, but probably not as much as a lot of the other markets as well.

Grant Francke 34:58

Yeah. Absolutely that depreciation, then that inflation run up, was pretty substantial. But, yeah, it's just a really boring real estate market that just steady. There's some great rentals. There's a lot of people that move into, move into town, from Lincoln, from outside, that go to school or start out here, and then they go somewhere else. So it's great town.

Keith Weinhold 35:16

What about some other things in the character of the market? What are property taxes, like one or 1.2% per year based on the value of the property. That's about a national average. How does Lincoln look that way?

Grant Francke 35:29

Yeah, it's a little bit higher. Right now, there's been some fighting in our legislature about how they're trying to fix that, because we have a really fairly good budget in Nebraska tax wise. So they're fighting to get us some relief now, but it's a little bit, I guess, like 1.3 or 1.4 right now in Nebraska.

Keith Weinhold 35:43

a little higher than the national average. But really, the more important metric, one I talk about a lot, because it's so simple, is approximately, let's say, for a rental, single family home, is what is the ratio of the rent income per month to the purchase price?

Grant Francke 36:00

Yeah, it's tough to find those 1% deals anymore. Those are tougher to come by. I think if you're buying a single family right now, you're probably going to be, at that .75% of the income to the property. If you get into multifamily. We're still finding deals that are decent around that 1%

Keith Weinhold 36:15

so with the 710, of 1% rent to price ratio as an example, on a $200,000 purchase price property, that would be a rent of $1,400 so you can find something like

Grant Francke 36:28

that. It sounds like that's usually about, yeah, for single family, I think that's what we're seeing. But like I said, multi family, we're getting pretty close to that 1% still with with some added rent.

Keith Weinhold 36:37

Do you think about branching into other markets? Like a lot of our investors do, not everyone lives in an investor advantage market like Lincoln, but even those that do say, if they live in a Columbus, Ohio or in Indianapolis, Indiana, they might want to add a couple markets for diversification, maybe Metro in Alabama and another one in Florida. Do you plan to continue to grow right there, since you have these great local relationships with local banks.

Grant Francke 37:03

I mean, it'd be tough. There is a couple of markets we've looked at, like San Antonio, I really like that one. And then Louisville, Kentucky. I've been there a few times, and it's just a great town. And I think there's some really good industry down there too. So those are the two that would be on my list. I haven't taken a massive action on getting down there yet, but if I were, that's probably be where I go.

Keith Weinhold 37:21

Of course, San Antonio is going to have those higher property taxes, but I just visited San Antonio last month. They really look to be the beneficiary of this near shoring movement, with more companies relocating to Mexico, this is great. We talked about how you grew your portfolio. Are there any other strategies overall that you employ any mindsets that you make actionable, either that you learned about on this show, or just anything else that you do in there grant your keys to success, your formula.

Grant Francke 37:49

The big thing for me is like, my why? Like, why did I do this? And why was I doing it that was huge for me in the beginning, and my, why was my wife and kids like? I wanted to spend more time with them. So when you know your why, like, all these tough things that happen, because, like, you know pipes are going to break, tenants are going to be tenants, and things are going to go wrong. So if you know your why and why you're doing that, it makes it so much more easy to get through those difficult times. So it's really a mindset thing, which is kind of odd thing to say, but it's a mindset thing, because things are gonna go wrong, so you gotta have a strong why behind you.

Keith Weinhold 38:22

Did you write down your why?

Grant Francke 38:24

I did? Yes, I'm big in goal setting as well, so I write goals and like, every year and then quarterly as well. So writing down my why and knowing that, it helped me when I was working on those properties and driving back and forth, listening to get rich education, just knowing why I was doing this, it made it a lot easier.

Keith Weinhold 38:42

Yeah, there's something about writing it down. I've even learned that using blue ink on yellow paper, somehow there is something about doing that in particular that really helps create this imprint in your mind. But however you do it, yeah, writing it down is so important, and that way this goal doesn't become a morphous or malleable when you do that.

Grant Francke 39:03

yeah, it sets it in stone. You can look at it. It's actually physically there. It's not something just conjestually in your head. It's actually something that's taken place.

Keith Weinhold 39:10

You have had such success. Gosh, congratulations on that, such that you even created a resource. But before I ask you about that, is there just any last thing that you'd like to talk about in your journey overall, whether that's goal setting and having a good why, or any GRE concepts, or just really anything else that's led to your success, to have 120 units.

Grant Francke 39:32

it really goes back to, like I said, my why, and then the education. So I do want to thank you again, like, for all the podcasts and and all the information you put out. It was uh very, impactful on me as I was learning the reason that why GRE always spoke well to me is like you would talk about conjectural things, about real estate and cash flow and all this, but it was also the larger economic process of how things worked, how things mixed together. So having that in my brain too and in my back pocket really gave. Me the confidence to attack these things when inflation started happening. I'm like, Oh, that was nothing I ever thought about. But I've heard you talk about it for hours and hours on the end. So I'm like, I understand how this works now, and I know how I'm positioned. I can use it to my advantage as well. So a lot of those things helped me out scaling up and just taking all those resources that we got from the show.

Keith Weinhold 40:17

Yeah, we're actually beneficiaries of inflation here, which is certainly pretty counter cultural. With your success, you put together a resource, and I definitely want you to share it with our audience, because this is something I really think they can benefit from, because they can relate to your story. I'm pretty confident.

Grant Francke 40:35

appreciate it. Yeah, so I wrote a book. It's called the unlikely investor. It's available on Amazon, but it's just a book that I took, kind of my story from a w2 employee to scaling up to where I am. Now, some of those tips and tricks in there. I have maybe plagiarized some stuff from Keith's podcast, and we talked about some the different pillars of wealth that you get from real estate. But it really just kind of goes into the mindset part too, of finding your why, goal setting, and then the basics of real estate investing on up through scaling up to a decent sized portfolio.

Keith Weinhold 41:07

Oh, I know, in every instance you credited me in the book.

Grant Francke 41:11

I do. I did, yeah.

Keith Weinhold 41:13

I really don't care. It's more about, you know, people getting the information, rather than me getting any credit for that. That's great. And you know the name The unlikely investor? When I learned that that was a title of your book, for a moment, that threw me off. I'm like, I wonder what that means. But you know what? No, I think I know what that means. You can tell me, but I'm an unlikely investor. I went to college for geography and regional planning. That was my double major. I thought I'd be a geography teacher. It's just really unlikely that I got into real estate, I didn't have this bent in me anywhere within academia. So why do you call it the unlikely investor?

Grant Francke 41:49

That same story, you know, I had a great w2 job, I had a great union, a great pension. There's really no reason that I had to go out and do this. It's very unlikely. You know, if you look at the numbers of our peers that actually do what we've done. It's extremely unlikely that we did it, so it was a great call to action of like, No, you can do this. It may seem unlikely, but it's possible.

Keith Weinhold 42:09

Oh, well, I think that title is 100% appropriate. That was good to talk with you more, and I really want to thank you for coming onto the show, because you're going to help out a lot of people with your story and you the listener. If you find it relatable, check out. Grant's new book just published this year. It's called The Unlikely Investor Grant Francke, it's been great having you here on GRE

Grant Francke 42:33

appreciate it. Keith, it's an honor.

Keith Weinhold 42:40

Grant mentioned the tax breaks when you leave your job quickly, so as not to gloss over that when you're at the point where you're getting close to leaving your job, if that's even a goal of yours, some people want to get in real estate just for some additional income. But like he said, it was at a point where he and his family needed just $4,800 of rent income per month. That was back a few years ago there, and your number will almost surely be higher than that with the inflation that we've had. But you know, figure that in once you quit your job, you're probably going to identify for what's known as the real estate professional designation, as outlined by the IRS, what that is, is the status that gives you some really nice tax breaks. And one way in which you qualify is that real estate needs to be your principal activity, meaning you expand more of your time per week in real estate than you do any other discipline. Now, I'm not a CPA, but frequent guests here, Tom wheelwright and I, we have discussed the real estate professional designation on a prior episode, and every year, there's a form that I quickly fill out myself confirming my ongoing real estate professional designation. Now you're probably not going to be able to qualify for that when you still have a day job, because that's going to be your principal activity, where you spend most of your time each week, and also before you do quit your job, if that's a goal of yours, well, it is a good time to first qualify for loans Fannie and Freddie like the steadiness of a w2 income. So qualify for your last few loans before quitting. There might even be a seasoning period in there as well. Now, when it comes to today's guest grant, when he reached out to the show here, you know there's something about his approach that engenders this willingness to want to collaborate with him. I think I shared with you before that we get 50 times as many requests to be a guest on the show as we have available slots, but Grant, I guess, exudes this professionalism while being humble, and it just makes you want to see him win, and yeah, no wonder his local banks want to make him loans. I gave a formal written endorsement of Grant's new book earlier this year the. Forwarders, written by Brandon Turner, the book titled The unlikely investor. I mean, I might be an even less likely real estate investor than Grant because he's somewhat handy. That's a skill a handle. He's got that I don't have. I am a writer and well then somehow became, I guess, an unlikely podcaster or two in the book. He also writes that if you're unhappy in real estate investing, it means that your system is broken. So if you're seeking an approachable, relatable book, one where you can really, like, put yourself in the author's shoes and tell yourself, you know I can do that and I can be that. Well, then check out grant Frankie's book called The Unlikely Investor. More great shows coming up for you every Monday here. I'm grateful for your listenership. I'm your host. Keith whitehold, don't quit your Daydream.

Speaker 2 46:03

Keith Weinhold 46:23

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Direct download: GREepisode531_.mp3
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Mon, 2 December 2024

Keith discusses the paradox of falling home prices and rents in Austin, Texas, despite it being the fastest-growing city. He highlights the over-supply of apartments, with new towers next to old bungalows, and notes that apartment rents are down, while single-family home rents are up.

He also explores societal attitudes towards wealth, noting the double standard of admiring celebrities while vilifying entrepreneurs like Jeff Bezos.

The over-supply of apartments has slowed down rent growth, affecting single-family home rents.

Wage growth has outpaced inflation, potentially boosting rents.

Millennials are increasingly renting due to the inability to afford homes.

Show Notes:

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529: How to Be the Best in the World at Anything

Complete episode transcript:

Automatically Transcribed With Otter.ai

Keith Weinhold 0:01

Welcome to GRE I'm your host. Keith Weinhold, I just walked one of America's most interesting real estate streets. I'll tell you what I saw then what it takes to get rents to increase in the US more real estate investing content, then it's about jealousy and envy. Why we hate Amazon founder Jeff Bezos for his wealth, yet love performers like LeBron James and Taylor Swift for theirs. It's a case study on wealth, entrepreneurship and celebrity today on get rich education.

Speaker 1 0:39

Corey Coates 1:25

You're listening to the show that has created more financial freedom than nearly any show in the world. This is get rich education.

Keith Weinhold 1:41

Welcome to GRE from sinking spring Pennsylvania to Manitou Springs, Colorado and across 488 nations worldwide. I'm Keith Weinhold, and you are inside episode 530 of the GRE podcast. What's the minimum wage? I don't even know. Around here, we don't talk about how to live below your means, but grow your means, and you're gonna learn how to earn maximum wage. Austin, Texas is the fastest growing city in America. I've got some really interesting real estate observations for you, since I walked it two weeks ago and well, touring the Texas State Capitol Building was cool. And then on Austin's Sixth Street, I hadn't seen that much beer pong since college, but you know, rainy street, R A, I N, E Y, just south of the downtown, near the river, that was Austin's interesting Real Estate Street, the fastest growing city in the United States has falling home prices and falling rents. What a paradox that is in the fastest growing city. I mean, how do you balance that weirdness? Yes, the census tells us that Austin is the fastest growing and even as a gentrified hipster Haven with murals on the walls, street corners, there food trucks, coffee shops. You know the coffee shops that make you feel like you're in an indie film. It doesn't matter. They simply built too much there in Austin. So all of that that cannot compete with classic supply versus demand dynamics, old fashioned Milton Friedman stuff. And really, what I saw in both San Antonio and Austin is emblematic of the new apartment supply surge. What's going on on rainy street? I mean, that's what I call America's apartment over supply ground zero. Cranes are in the air all over the place. They're building 500 foot apartment towers right across the street from one story bungalows there on Rainey Street. It's a weird scene. Well, the apartments, they're going to be vacant for a while, and part of the weird scene is that there are outdoor live country music acts on the east side of rainy street, and they're playing out of these old one story bungalows converted to bars. It just feels like they're going to be raised and knocked over anytime and then country music, that's something that you associate with, like cows grazing within a mile of you. But that is not going on here, so these huge, new, shiny glass and steel apartment towers are right across the street from it. So it's this weird cultural mix of both country flare and urbanism in Austin and now there were also some clubs with DJs playing. There something more modern. I mean, like 20 year old R and B songs that everyone knows the words to by artists like Usher and Akon. Remember. Or a con or Ja Rule. Remember Ja Rule? Maybe they were playing Jay Z and ice cube too. But, you know, maybe shabu Z would have made more sense on that scene. In any case, it is an unusual scenario there in Austin. So a lively place, a growing place, but apartment buildings got out ahead of the growth. And yes, it all comes back to supply versus demand. Yep, that age old rivalry between what we've got and what we want now broadly, America has an overall lack of housing supply and the under building that is the most prevalent in northern states. And of course, under building, what that does is it increases the number of buyer bids on the few available properties. Well, in turn, that pushes up their home prices faster than the rest of the nation. Now the states with the most appreciation, they generally have the least new housing inventory being built. And of course, conversely, states with the highest available housing supply have the slowest home price appreciation. Austin is ground zero for that. So with the eclectic rainy street there, it's really representative of how you have some cities that are over built with apartments. You have a lot of apartment completions, but not very many new starts of apartments like I mentioned before. No, in fact, let's zoom out nationally. Here. Apartment list tells us that apartment rents are really flat. In fact, they're down seven tenths of 1% over the past year, available single family homes? Well, they're in more scarce supply than apartments, and the CoreLogic single family rent index tells us that their rents are up 2% annually. All right, something that completely makes sense for a change. The overbuild of apartments has slowed down their rent growth even more. But here's the thing, the overbuilding of apartments that's actually slowed down the rent growth in single family homes somewhat. And you might think that those two things aren't related, apartment rents and single family rents, but they're a little related. Just say a tenant they might ideally want a single family home, but there just aren't many of them out there for rent nationally. So then if a good new apartment is substantially cheaper, well, some proportion are going to accept an apartment as an alternative, and that's one reason that single family rent growth is just a modest 2% rather than a more normal 4% or so that you might see as a historic average. But yeah, I mean, really, the story is all these apartment completions, where a lot of them are going to be vacant for a while in some cities now, long term, apartments are going to be fine. I'm totally confident of that the demographic demand for apartments is going to be there because our population is growing and because there aren't many new apartment starts. So really that means over the next couple years, apartment supply versus demand is going to come more back into balance, while we could keep having this ongoing deficiency, though over for the single family rental homes. Perhaps the best thing that you and I can have happen to increase real estate profitability is to get rents up. So let's take a look at that. Let's look at the prospects for getting rents up in, just say, the next year or two. And there is a real bright spot here for that, and that is the fact that wages have outpaced inflation every single month for almost two years now, yes, wages and incomes are up those higher wages and higher incomes can therefore afford higher rents. And like with a lot of things in economics, it moves slowly, and there is a lag effect. And this is, you know, it's really how it usually works when there is a wave of inflation. What happens is, first, inflation outpaces wage growth, and now that we've come down off the big inflation wave, we're in the era where it has flipped, and now wage growth outstrips inflation. Well, the most recent stats, they tell us that America now has 4.6% wage growth and just 2.6% CPI inflation growth. Now is wage growth higher than the real diminished purchasing power of the dollar, not just the stated CPI inflation, because you got to remember, CPI is only the level that the government is willing to admit to, but in a sense, who cares? Because look, as a real estate investor, while your principal and interest payment stays fixed every month and inflation can't touch it, we know that wage growth is up 4.6% and that's the part that really. Matters. So if that means that you can get a 4.6% rent growth in the near future, after some lag effects settle in, well that might increase the annual cash flow, the money you feel in your pocket, say, 7% or 9% annually. So this wage growth trend, it portends really well for rent growth, ultimately flowing through to your cash flow growth. So we know that home price appreciation is amazing and has been amazing for us, investors, leverage and all of that, but there expects to be more upward pressure on rents, and that is led by robust wage growth. That is really happening now, and workers are demanding the wage growth to cope with higher consumer prices. Now, when it comes to the prospect of more home price growth, let's listen in to Shark Tank shark Barbara Corcoran, she recently talked about what would make home price growth go ballistic, as she puts it. This was her on Fox Business Channel with Neil cabotto. It's about three minutes in length, and then I'll be back to comment.

Speaker 2 11:08

Barbara Corcoran. Now the Corcoran Group founder, Shark Tank aficionado, much, much more brilliant read of real estate too, Barbara, great to have you. A lot I'm throwing at you, Barbara, and you always handle it, definitely. But first off, on the rate environment right now, between all these headlines and everything, rates have been backing up. And, you know, we just saw a 30 year fixed rate mortgage. It's up to 6.84% from 6.78% last week. That was before the market rate run up. So how do you view the environment right now for lending?

Speaker 3 11:43

Well, I think what we're losing right now we desperately need is more first time buyers. Less than 24% of the people buying now are first time buyers at an all time low. So rates have been bouncing around a while. Now, 6 to 7% so people are confused. They don't have big expectations. They're no longer waiting for a tremendous rate drop. If that happens, got it would be incredible for the market. But in the last year, or pardon me, in the last month alone, we have sold three and a half percent more houses despite what's going on in the interest rates. But the first time buyers aren't much a piece of that.

Speaker 2 12:16

You know, I notice as well us existing home sales, like you say, up 3.4% October. It's the first year over year gain I think we've seen in better part of three years. So what was going on there? Because that surprised me.

Speaker 3 12:30

Well, it doesn't surprise me because there's more houses on the market, so there were 25% more choices for the buyer coming out into the market and looking and on top of that, the buyers themselves have gotten accustomed to the rates being what they are, and they just got tired of waiting. But I am wondering if we'll ever see a 5% number, because anything with the 5% in front of it is going to make this market go ballistic. But right now, you're already seeing the signs. In the last month.

Speaker 2 12:59

You know, you've reminded me in the past that sometimes it's psychological. A lot of folks, and a lot of them look at that 7% handle on a fixed rate mortgage get close to or over that it could tax this recovery or whatever you want to recourse call it. But what do you say.

Speaker 3 13:13

well if it went higher? Of course, it would slow down the whole market. Would slow down the whole economy. It would slow down all the support services for the housing market, it would be a terrible thing, but I don't think people are thinking it's going to go much up, if you really listen to the experts. That could happen. But I don't think you're going to see interest rates above 7% again. I'm hoping that it's going to go and hover around six, or even go lower.

Speaker 2 13:36

All right. Well, you have a better track record a lot of those so called experts. I'm going to go with you, Barbara. But you know, the one thing that is out there, the worry is that Donald Trump, say what you will, of him, he has aggressive plans to spur the economy, you know, the tariff thing, the talk that, you know, he is going to pour a lot into tax cuts that could juice the economy so much so that some worry it's going to, you know, get prices going higher. We don't know for how long or how much, but that that that will be the inevitable consequence of what he's offering. Do you agree with that?

Speaker 3 14:06

I do agree with that. I think inflation is on everybody's mind, and I think it's risky, so I think we're going to find out. I guess it's like a horse race. We'll see what happens.

Keith Weinhold 14:15

Yeah, Barbara thinks mortgage rates in the fives. I guess under six then that would make the market go nuts and really push up prices. She reiterated how first time home buying is at an all time low, that proportion of the first time homebuyers are down, down, down, keeping those people as renters. So we've got the Trump bump and still an inflationary bump behind higher and higher real estate prices going into next year, most likely. But I mean, now you've really got to be selective and filter the kind of information that you listen to and put credence in what. We just had a presidential election a month ago, and people love to speculate about the future and what they think say tariffs are going to mean for inflation and then what that's going to do to interest rates. And you know, all that stuff is just notoriously difficult to predict. It is really tough. I mean, look, I've attended two prominent economic and real estate conferences the last few months, and there are some good insights at meetings like that. But here's the thing you've got to keep in mind, everyone has an opinion, and no one knows the future. George Bernard Shaw's got a great quote. He said, If all the economists were laid end to end, they would never reach a conclusion. So I mean, we're still going to talk inflation and interest rates here on the show, because their effect on your economic life is profound, but guessing about where they're going to go, especially interest rates, that is almost an exercise in futility. There are some things that we know will almost surely affect you. I mean, I'm talking about something like demographics that is more predictable, or the benefit of leverage, where, if you have too much equity in your properties, you can do something about that right now, and that way, what you do is you actually create your future, instead of guessing and speculating about what it might be. Or say you can create your future. You can learn about a program like you know when the opportunity Zone program came out a while ago, or a new tax incentive program for real estate investors. These are things you can do. You can sink your teeth into them with what you have right now, the resources, the toolkit that you have right now, and actually do something about and one thing that we do know is that increasingly, millennials cannot afford to buy a house, and you know, it just basically means that their future is poorer. They have to live with other people into their 30s. Instead of forming a family, they don't have kids. The marriage rate takes a hit. I mean, these numbers have collapsed since the 1980s the home ownership rate among them has gone from about 50% down to 30% so millennials and Gen Z ers too, they know that their future is really shaky and it's concerning. So you have this same cohort, people in their 30s doing two jobs, taking on three jobs, some of them balancing four jobs. They don't want to do that. They don't want to work 12 hour days, six days a week, while they're trying to pay down their college loans. They're doing it because they have to. They can't form a down payment for a home. The average millennial is 3637 years old. And their parents, and my parents, they're all baby boomers. And, you know, they Baby Boomers were the richest generation that we've ever seen. So what we've got going on here now is the first generation that will not be as rich as their parents, and that's really strange. We're all used to this sort of human progress. I mean, if your parents were middle class people, and you're less well off than them, or your tenant is well, then what does that mean? Well, it means that you're gonna be renting for a while. See this demographic stuff. This is really happening. There is no speculation here, and it's why I want you to set up your investor life to provide rental property to others. It's a smart place to be positioned. In fact, a lot of media agrees. Yahoo Finance just published an article titled, rental home investors are poised to benefit. It basically details why rental properties are going to be next year's attractive option for would be home buyers. This month, analysts at Raymond James and Associates, they say that they see mortgage rates remaining higher for longer given the outcome of the election, again, no one can really predict mortgage rates. But anyway, they reiterated their outperform ratings. That's the rating that they gave it out perform on these two companies, American homes for rent and invitation homes. And they're these institutional homebuyers, they do the build to rent space, and they noted Raymond James that is noted that we are increasingly confident in the longer term outlook for single family rental fundamentals and the industry's growth prospects. That's the end of their quote. So that's what the analysts of financial planning firm. Raymond James and Associates, had to say. And suffice to say, there is a lot of positive momentum for rental property, especially in the single family space coming up next. Why we hate Jeff Bezos for his wealth, but love performers like Harry Styles, Rihanna, Taylor Swift, Dua Lipa and Olivia Rodrigo, despite their wealth.

Hey, check out all of our real estate investing resources at get rich education.com. It's the home per our podcast, this very show that you're listening to right now. Also videos, blogs, how to get our newsletter. Be sure you're doing that. Connections with our recommended real estate service providers, a way for you to contact us over there, and also how you can connect with our completely free, yes, truly free, real estate investment coaching, all of that and more. Is it get rich education.com. I'm Keith Weinhold. More next you're listening to get rich education.

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Dolf Deroos 22:48

this is the king of commercial real estate, Dolph de Roos. Listen to get rich education with Keith Weinhold, and don't quit your Daydream.

Keith Weinhold 23:08

Welcome back to get rich Education. I'm your host. Keith Weinhold, a Taylor Swift loving friend recently said the weirdest thing to me, I don't buy from Amazon. I hate Jeff Bezos. He doesn't need any more money. Yeah, that's what they said that struck me as so odd. Well, Taylor Swift is a billionaire with a B and a net worth of $1.6 billion and going up. And you know, we're doing this everywhere in society. Why do we vilify wealthy entrepreneurs like Bezos yet glorify wealthy actors and athletes and singers like Taylor Swift? Let's look into this, because I've actually got some answers for why so many people apply this double standard to wealthy celebrities and well known people. And I know I've mentioned to you before that Taylor Swift and I were actually born in the same hometown of Reading, Pennsylvania, West Reading, actually vilifying business people yet glorifying performers. That seems to transcend, you know, any of these celebrity personality or character flaws. So let's put all that stuff aside that's distracting, that devolves and gets us off topic. Let's just focus on the wealth part and the resentment of that wealth, because often it's not that people dislike Bezos for say, the decline of small retail though there is that for any of his personal traits, but specifically they hate his wealth, but by the way, yet they have an Amazon account. Well. As a society, we just love celebrities despite their wealth, if they're stage performers like Rihanna, Taylor Swift, Dua Lipa, Olivia Rodrigo, Harry Styles, LeBron James. I mean, we applaud Stephen Curry's three pointers and show a otani's home runs when Philadelphia Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts got a $255 million contract extension. We loved it. Fans plastered their walls with his poster, but yet, at the same time, while people are doing that, society often disparages successful entrepreneurs and business owners for their wealth, like Bezos or Barbara Corcoran, who we heard from earlier, or Spanx founder, Sarah Blakely, so I analyze why society does this, so let's see what we can learn from it. And I should add, of course, that like with most anything, you can find some exceptions out there, some outliers. I mean, Warren Buffet's net worth is over 100 billion and yet seems like everyone wants to sit around a campfire and listen to his sage investing wisdom, and some athletes are despised, for sure. And then there's a guy like Ryan Reynolds who kind of spans both worlds and lives his best life in Hollywood and in business, but really our emotional divide. It begins with the primordial human senses of jealousy and envy. And, you know, there's a cartoon floating around out there, and the cartoon has just two frames. In the first frame, it shows a guy standing in front of the room with a crowd of people that he's speaking to, and he asks, Who hates the rich? And everyone in the crowd has their hand up raised high. Everyone hates the rich. And then the second frame of the cartoon shows the same scene, and the guy in the front of the room is saying, Now, who wants to be rich? And yeah, everyone's got their hand raised up again. So let's be realistic. Ask most people that resent the wealthy, all right, what income do you think you'd need to be to be considered rich yourself? Oh, maybe they would answer say, five times as much as I make it now. Oh, yeah. Well, I bet if right after that, you offered them a 5x pay raise for the same job, they would take it, but yet they resent the wealthy, even though 5x would make them wealthy. Now there's a component of optics here, too. You, with your own eyes, get to see Taylor Swift perform at a concert. Her work is visible. It's satisfying. You might be emotionally moved by that. And from all accounts, Taylor does put in a ton of work to perform that well, sing that well, and put in the physical endurance of these three plus hour concerts. That really is amazing. I don't denigrate her for owning a Dassault Falcon private jet like she does. I mean, I don't disparage any wealthy person for wealth alone. I think deep down in your heart, it's where a lot of people want to be. Robert Downey, Jr. He performs his we'll call it his magnum opus, on screen as Iron Man Tony Stark in Marvel movies, and he's been paid up to $600 million for that role across many movies, but yet, you know, we find that satisfying, which is weird. I mean, Taylor Swift, she is herself, but actors like Robert Downey Jr actually pretend to be someone else. So we praise an actor like Robert Downey Jr, and he's best known for pretending to be someone else, but yet we despise say, Apple's leader Tim Cook, for his wealth. Why in the heck would that be I mean, how do you justify that? Well, it's because Tim Cook's performances aren't visible. It's optics. You didn't get to see the process of how Bezos revolutionized Amazon's 24 hour delivery to your doorstep or drone delivery. What bezels is doing on a computer is not exactly a spectator sport. Okay, we don't get to see the work that Apple Steve Jobs did for our iPhone, or what Tim Cook does for our iPhone or iPad or MacBook. So therefore it's less satisfying because it wasn't visible. And yet, Tim Cook's highest endeavor, it's less glamorous than that of an actor. And yet Tim Cook completely acts like himself. For all ways I can tell, unlike an actor and Tim Cook, he really shapes the world that you and I live in today. I mean, he has definitely influenced your life more than some fictitious superhero has. There's also an element of imitation here, and this is really important, because look, you and I really for all intents and purposes, we cannot be like Taylor Swift or LeBron James. But you know what we can be a little like Jeff Bezos or Tim Cook, at some point in your life, you get real and you tell yourself that you cannot be like Lebron James. You cannot sprout to be six foot nine and be the all time leader in NBA point scored, you're not going to be like Taylor Swift. And had the highest grossing musical tour of all time with more than 7 million tickets sold. Now you couldn't sell any tickets to people that would want to see you sing. I sure couldn't. But see, you can be a successful entrepreneur. You just have to do, and when you have to do, and you know you could do those things. See, this means that you and I don't have any cop out. So sometimes we refute an entrepreneur success to try to let ourselves off the hook from actually doing you know, I think it's human nature to sort of protect our ego and tell ourselves, ah, I can't be like them. But that's false, because being wealthy is a choice, something I actually didn't believe when I was younger. If you wanted to you, yes, not some other listener, but you could have a successful business and perhaps even parlay your success into being a yacht owner, you could actually be that now, yacht owner, that's not some goal of mine. But see, instead of resenting a yacht owner, you can be inspired by that success. You don't have to launch a space company and fly people to Mars. You can do something here on earth. You can own a successful e commerce company, or rent out cars to people, or provide what people truly need and righteously serve a lot of people with housing. As a real estate investor, you can do all those things, even if it's just 1% of the level that Bezos does with E commerce, even if it's 1/10 of 1% see, you can get a piece of that. This is similar to how popular culture denigrates landlords and yet over sympathizes with tenants. Sometimes the tenant is right, but the landlord is often not some mega corporation. They're usually a mom and pop investor that took on risk and took out a mortgage loan to provide property for a complete stranger. Now let's say that you achieve what we'll call success, quote, unquote, success as a real estate entrepreneur, because you just added your 20th rental unit, right? You had 19, as soon as you go to 20, then is that the right level at which you're supposed to start being denigrated? But up to that point, it was okay. I mean, see, this can sound a little silly. In fact, just last week, at the New Orleans investment conference, I met a GRE listener and investor, Jenny from Indiana. She actually owns 19 rental units. They're mostly single family rentals. All right. Well, is it okay to own 19? But then she should start being resented once she adds her 20th property and serves that many people, that doesn't make any sense, and neither does resenting Bezos, I mean, he grew up in challenging conditions with a 17 year old mother and An alcoholic father. Bezos worked, innovated, took risks, raised money. His Guiding Light at Amazon has been an ethical three words, serve the customer. That's a good thing. He came from disadvantaged conditions to serve the customer. And the good news here is that you can do this too. You don't need to have a certain body type or an IQ. Serve the tenant, serve the market. I mean, I have seen successful entrepreneurs that are overweight, short, old, young, tall, female, male, even dyslexic, and they have all crushed it in business among the world's 8 billion people. You yourself see life in a way that no one else sees it. So at some point you learn that you really can't sing like Taylor Swift, or jump over a car like LeBron, or be as funny as. Meet bargatsi, but you can be you, and that's enough, but you have to do and, oh yeah, not give up every time things get tough, but nobody's stopping you. An entrepreneur is a crazy person who risks their own money for freedom, rather than exchanging their freedom for money, you took the leap critics stand on the sidelines when they're disparaged only because they're wealthy. It says more about the critic than it says about you, the successful entrepreneur and real estate investor. So instead, you can ask yourself the question, what is stopping me from creating my own version of that success? We misdirect our emotions when we vilify entrepreneurs and glorify stage performers merely based on what's more visible, more emotional and more imitative, rather than the Creator of the products and services that put real value in your life. So don't be ashamed of applying yourself and using your ingenuity in your strategy, in your careful risk taking for earning more income for yourself. We shouldn't disparage Bezos, LeBron, Taylor Swift or Dua Lipa for the wealth, because it is the same kind of success that we all wish that we could have.

coming up in future weeks on the show here we're getting closer to the end of the year where I will reveal get rich education's home price appreciation forecast for next year right here on the show. And I'm gonna give you an exact percentage national home price appreciation number. You're gonna know what to expect. I've done that for you for a few years here now I think this is gonna be the fourth year in a row where I'm doing it. It's sort of becoming a tradition, but coming up before that here on the show, I've shared with you how you know it's usually going to take you five years or more to go from your day job to financial freedom through real estate investing, but we've had some nice appreciation the last few years, and some GRE listeners are doing it faster than five years pretty soon, here, I'm gonna have a conversation with the GRE listener that applied principles that he heard here on the show, and he quit his job for real estate in just three years, he's gonna be here with me and tell you how he did it. Thanks for listening.

Hey, go ahead andtell a friend about the show here, take a screenshot and post it on your social media. I really appreciate you sharing the GRE Podcast with your friends and others until next week, I'm your host. Keith Weinhold, Don't Quit Your Daydream.

Speaker 4 37:56

Keith Weinhold 38:24

The preceding program was brought to you by your home for wealth, building, getricheducation.com.

Direct download: GREepisode530_.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 4:00am EST

Mon, 25 November 2024

Former NFL player, Broadway playwright, best-selling author and in-demand public speaker, Bo Eason, joins us to discuss the power of storytelling and achieving greatness. Bo emphasizes the importance of setting high standards, such as aiming to be the best, and seeking out mentors. He shares his upbringing, where his father instilled confidence by telling him he was the best, which influenced his success. Bo highlights the significance of personal, physical, and unapologetic storytelling to build trust and connect with others.

Adopt the mindset of striving to be the best, not just settling for mediocrity.

Make the Gold Medal the standard, not the end goal.

Develop and share your personal, compelling story to build trust and attract opportunities.

Resources:

Text "PERSONALSTORY" to 323-310-5504 to receive a free video course from Bo on uncovering your powerful personal story.

Show Notes:

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528: Real Estate is Up 490% Over the Last 40 Years

Complete episode transcript:

Automatically Transcribed With Otter.ai

Keith Weinhold 0:02

Welcome to GRE. I'm your host. Keith Weinhold, how do you become the best in the world at anything that you want to do in your life? Today's remarkable guest will tell you how so you can become the best version of yourself. He's become the best in more than one endeavor, including playing in the NFL. We'll also learn about the persuasive power of story and how you can find your very best personal story that you do have inside of you. It's a show rated PG for personal growth today on get rich education

Speaker 1 0:41

since 2014 the powerful get rich education podcast has created more passive income for people than nearly any other show in the world. This show teaches you how to earn strong returns from passive real estate investing in the best markets without losing your time being a flipper or landlord. Show Host Keith Weinhold writes for both Forbes and Rich Dad advisors and delivers a new show every week since 2014 there's been millions of listener downloads of 188 world nations. He has a list show guests and key top selling personal finance author Robert Kiyosaki. Get rich education can be heard on every podcast platform, plus it has its own dedicated Apple and Android listener phone apps build wealth on the go with the get rich education podcast. Sign up now for the get rich education podcast, or visit get rich education.com

Corey Coates 1:27

You're listening to the show that has created more financial freedom than nearly any show in the world. This is get rich education. You Keith,

Keith Weinhold 1:43

welcome to GRE from Europe's Iberian peninsula to New Iberia, Louisiana and across 188 nations worldwide. I'm Keith Weinhold. As always, I'm grateful to have you along this week. This is get rich education. Most investing is left brained, but most decision making for your investment, choice is right brain. If you don't know the difference, left brain is about the numbers. It's analytical and logical. So left brain people, they're good at math and critical thinking and language as well. If you're more right brained, then you are more creative and emotional, and you tend to be good at recognizing faces and the attribute of diplomacy that's right brained. And it's a right brained kind of episode. Today you're going to learn how to be a performer and be the best at whatever you want to be. I mean, the best, whether that's as a real estate investor, business person, apartment building syndicator, or a real estate agent that's trying to sell homes, it'll even help you become the best parent, child, best spouse, best at basketball, best at table tennis. And you know, you are part of a really well educated and influential audience that we have here. Maybe you're trying to be the best physician or politician or even social media influencer or the best church minister that you can be. And in fact, as it turns out, people that are trying to raise money end up consulting today's guest quite a bit. And as you'll see, this guest really can tell a story. You'll learn that he has achieved elite success, even best in the world, success in a number of different areas. He's had like, three or four successful people's lives, yet he's the same guy. He's sort of like, in a sense, President Elect Donald Trump. Love him or hate him. Trump found success in real estate and then in media, with his show The Apprentice and then as the 45th and 47th president. Well, those disciplines there for Trump, they're somewhat related. Well, today's guest became the best in areas that aren't even related to each other at all, which is even more amazing. So therefore, maybe today it's really more of an Arnold Schwarzenegger parallel. I mean, Schwarzenegger, he was first the successful bodybuilder, winning Mr. Olympia, then he went on to become a successful actor. He married into the Kennedy family, and he became the California governor. Well, before I introduce you to today's guest, well, we are a wealth building show here, and as we talk about being the best in something, you know, I really want to ask you a question, Are you content with being middle class? You know, despite the way that inflation has ravaged it us, middle class life isn't all that bad. In fact, it's pretty good in a lot of ways, from the iPhone to the luxury of having a gym membership. I mean, that's just middle class stuff. Sheesh. Life is so good that when it's time to reset a password, people treat that as some sort of existential crisis. And you know, this is the time of year that even the middle class indulge in, say, pretty elaborate Christmas decorations. In fact, I increasingly notice that it's more and more common to hire a Christmas decorating contractor to decorate your real estate for you. They'll get ladders and a lift truck to hang lights in your tallest trees. That's something that the middle class does. Here's a new one. There's at least one mainstream, I guess, paper products company that now makes toilet paper with perforations that are wavy instead of being straight across, because it's easier to tear that way. So I think that you could make the case that American middle class life really isn't too bad, but in your life, if you want to be all that you can be, or anywhere close, you're not going to settle for something that's just better than not too bad. You can want more, and you should want more because you're capable of more, if for nothing else create the type of value for the world so that you can have more free time for yourself. I expect to have a terrific time and learn some things here where I am today in New Orleans for the 50th anniversary of the New Orleans Investment Conference, we've got speakers and exhibits covering real estate investing, economics, a lot of gold investing material at this conference Bitcoin and even stocks. And of course, I invited you, the listener here the past couple months, to come to the conference and meet in real life. As this is about to kick off, I wonder if I will find someone to go running with me. I always go running along the Mississippi River. Here in New Orleans, there is a trail paralleling the river right here, close to the event site. Yeah, I think I'm recovered from a mild back injury by now. Gosh, it was so weird. I hurt my back at the gym last month. And here's the thing. Somehow I heard it while doing my warm up exercises, of all things, sheesh. In fact, this is a triumvirate of fitness paradoxes here in doing this. Number one, warm ups are activities that you do before you work out to prevent hurting yourself, but I hurt myself in the warm up. Secondly, I never seem to injure myself while running steep, rocky trails or skiing down slopes outdoors, but indoors where the floor is level, that's the place where I seem to get injured. And then thirdly, the gym is where you go to improve your fitness, not lose fitness. So yes, that is the triumvirate of paradoxes there. Well, our guest, you know, he really knows the power of story, and just listen to him. I bet he'll tell a better story than hurting my back at the gym. Let's meet him.

Today, we have a guy with massive ambitions who I know is going to bring out the best in you during his lifetime, he's chased what it means to be world class, not just in one discipline, but in five different disciplines, and he's achieved a true level of greatness in all of them. He has played in the NFL for four seasons with Houston, then went on to become a San Francisco 49er, next, a super successful Broadway playwright, then an in demand public speaker, most recently, an eight time best selling author, and he has gone on to write screenplays for movie stars, so get ready to hear him talk about the one factor that's been the driving force behind his success in all of these disciplines. Hey, welcome to get rich education. Bo Eason.

Bo Eason 9:13

Keith, thanks for having me.

Keith Weinhold 9:14

Well, it's the first time that we have a former NFL player on the show, and Bo played the same position that my favorite football player of all time did, Ryan Dawkins, that is the safety position. But we're not here to discuss football so much as how you can build the architecture of success like Bo has and Bo your success is astounding, and our listeners hope that some of their virtual proximity to you rubs off on them today, I do too, and it's remarkable because you've reached the pinnacle of success in some of these disciplines that don't even seem to be related to each other at all. So what can you reveal here? Is there one common driver that led to them all?

Bo Eason 9:58

Man, you know what? That's. A great question, going back the way my dad woke us up as kids. So I'm the youngest of six kids, so I grew up on a ranch, on a farm in northern California. My dad was a cattle rancher, and I four older sisters and a brother who's a year older than me, so every morning he woke up all six of us to go do our chores, you know, on this ranch at five in the morning, and he would wake us up by rubbing our backs. He pulled back the covers. He'd rub our backs really hard, like, not easy, not like gentle, like dads of today, like this was a cowboy, you know, with dirty hands and rough hands. And he would rub our back and he would whisper in our ear and tell us that we were the best. And so for the first 18 years of my life, every morning he'd come into me in my brother's room. He'd wake up my brother in the same way he woke me up by rubbing his back and whispering his ear, you're the best. Get up, you're the best. And after you hear that for 18 years, my brother went off to college. I went off to college. My sisters all went off to college. And I always think back to those eight first 18 years, because when I would come home and visit our parents. So my brother got drafted. He was the first round pick of the New England Patriots. He was the quarterback for the New England Patriots took them to their first Super Bowl. So that best term worked out for him. And then I was a second round pick for the Houston Oilers, and got to play with them for several years. And this term, I always thought back to it, like, Why was my dad saying that? Because when we were growing up, when we were playing Little League, and we're playing sports, when we were kids, we actually weren't the best. But he wouldn't say that we were like, I would strike out every time in Little League, I was so bad at baseball, and every time he would yell at me through the chain link fence that I was the best, and my teammates are like, You got to be kidding me, Bo What is your dad even saying You're the worst? And he's telling you you're the best for most of our lives, the first half of our lives, it was a source of embarrassment to me and my brother and I remember going on a date one time, a double date with my brother. In fact, I couldn't even drive my brother could, and we went on a this double date with the thomasini sisters. So we were going, and my dad walks out to the car with us, and we're like, What the heck is my What's dad doing? Why is he coming out to the car with us? He came out there to tell us that we were leaders and that we were the best before a date. And I'm like, Dad, go in the house, right? And then finally, you know me and my brother, we weren't recruited as football players coming out of high school. Not one person, not one college recruited us, but we had these dreams of being pro football players, and at that time, 350 colleges played college football, but no one wrote us a letter. No one recruited us. So my brother went to a junior college, and then he ended up, after that, got a scholarship to the University of Illinois, and then became a first round pick. Well, I went to a school called UC Davis in Northern California, which was division two football and no scholarships. So basically, no one was on scholarship. There. You just walked on and you played football for fun. Well, that's where I went. And then, you know, cut to four years later, my brother's a first round pick. I'm a second round pick, and we always looked back from that point on, deciding, like Dad always embarrassed us, friends in front of our dates, in front of everybody. But then at that point, 21, 22 years old, we looked back, we said, Man, you know what? We just kind of surrendered to, what he saw in us, and we were the best. We were the best at our positions, and the only reason we were is because we had somebody who saw our greatness and pretty much spoke it into existence. Now, when you grow up like that, Keith, you think you assume that every other kid has grown up like that too, right? But that wasn't true, right? We thought it was true. You know, it turns out that the other guys we were playing with, the other guys who are our teammates, they did not grow up like that. So I would say that that principle was huge for me and my brother, just somebody who saw something in us that we couldn't see for ourselves, and he did it up to a point where we began to see it for ourselves. He just was very patient. And, you know, I find myself doing this with my kids. I have three kids, and they're all going to be d1 athletes, two of them are already, wow. Yeah, and it's because that's how I woke him up, too, like so I know that's kind of a simple story, but it really set the foundation for us, and here's how it did, Keith, it told me what was expected of us, even when we weren't the best. He was expecting us to live into what he saw, and we did, and I found my kids to do the same, like I was looking at my kids, and I was like, Man, are they going to be athletes like me and my brother are at that level, because that was their dreams, right? But I didn't know if they had what it took. As I woke them up every morning, I could see them starting to live into their potential or live into their birthright. So I think to start off with Keith, that was a principle that is a mainstay. It taught me not only what was expected of me, but what I could set the standard for other people, and then they would live on into that standard, been able to do that. So those couple of things were huge in my upbringing.

Keith Weinhold 16:02

Well, this is remarkable, and I think you're already giving the parents in our audience quite a few ideas. Bo, this phrase, you're the best kind of got indelibly baked into your being and who you are, your dad even chasing you around on a double date, reinforcing you're the best and you know, Bo, I think that a person can be simultaneously grateful for what they have yet at the same time strive for more, as often say here on the show and adopting an abundance mindset with wealth building. Don't live below your means, grow your means. Now, I was watching an NFL football game just this past weekend, and a commercial came on for the IBEW, the labor union, and Bo it struck me as so odd that a trainee at the IBEW smiled, and they were all gratified that they were part of the IBEW. And they said, this is like now I have my golden ticket to the middle class, which I mean, because being middle class isn't like altogether awful in the United States, but it just sounded like this was the be all and end all, and hey, now I have a guarantee of mediocrity in my life that struck me as so odd. I don't think their father was telling them you're the best like yours did.

Bo Eason 17:21

No, they definitely did not. I'm always shook by that too, where people will sometimes come to me and they go, Bo, I want to push back on being the best. I just want to, you know, be kind of a good player, kind of medium wealth. And I'm like, Well, if you want to push back on me, you should take that up with Mother Nature, because if you just go back to the day that we were conceived, you know, if we want to have a little refresh of course on the day we were conceived, you were going to find out that there was the odds of us even being born were 300 million to one, and we were the champion of that first race that we entered right like 300 million to one odds, you're the champion, and yet here we are, you and me number one. You know, the gold medalists of those odds, and now we're supposed to be born into a world and be mediocre. I don't think Mother Nature set it out like that. I don't think that's how it happened. I think the standard is the gold medal, not the silver medal. You know, it's the gold medal. Now, some people win silver medals. If they lose the gold that's fine, that's great, but the gold medal is the thing. And I think the minute we lower ourselves from that. We're just trying to give ourselves a soft landing, I think, and then we don't ask enough of our potential, which is, if you're following Mother Nature, your potential is 300 million to one odds, and you already won that gold medal. So what are you doing? You know? What are you doing? So, as I progressed, Keith, so I went from football, I played in the lake for five years, and I didn't know what I was going to do, right? So I just started again. I just said, so instead of being the best safety in the world, because that was my first declaration, I just said, I want to be the best safety in the world. That's it. So I was able to achieve that. And then when football was over, I did the same thing for playwriting and performing. I just said, I don't care. I know I don't have any experience in this, but I'm going to declare right now, and I draw it up, that I'm going to be the best stage performer of my time. So that principle has worked every time, but I had to use the term the best. And I don't know why. I guess it was just locked in my brain. But here's the next thing, the next principle that I think is important for the audience. And this goes for wealth building. This goes for whatever you want to build, whether it's your family or, you know, an apartment complex. It doesn't matter we're building stuff. And here's what I did the second. All around I said, I want to be the best stage performer, the best playwright of my time. So I didn't know how to do that. So I moved to New York City because I knew everybody did plays there. They did Broadway, they did off Broadway. And I asked everybody in my class, who's the best at this this was in 1990 who is the best at this stage performance. And every kid in my class, and there were kids I was a little older because I was playing football, I said, Where is the best stage performer of our time? Who is it? And they all said, Al Pacino. And I said, Cool. Where is he? And they said, Well, I don't know where he is. He's on a movie set somewhere, or, you know, rehearsing for a theater show. And I said, I want to know him. I want to meet him, because only the best can tell me how to be the best. Only the best can tell me how to take his mantle of being the best stage performer. Wow, most people don't think that, or say that. You said Brian Dawkins, me too. I'm like, who's the best safety in the world? Let me go talk to that dude, because that dude knows what, like Ronnie. Lott, was that for me? Jack Tatum, Ronnie. Lott, those kind of guys I ended up playing with. Ronnie. Lott, you know you end up playing with these guys. You know the guys you're looking up to? Well, within a week of me asking these kids in my class, where is Al Pacino? I'm having dinner with Al Pacino, in New York City and I go, Dude, what do I do? What do I do? You tell me, I'll do it. And he goes, Okay, Bo, I'll draw it up for you. We'll draw it up. You know what that's going to take, but that's going to take you 15 years, and I go, perfect. That's my kind of timeline. I'm good like that, you know? And he goes, Okay, so he drew it up and I did what he said. He told me who to work with. Basically, he's telling me to put my butt on a stage. More than any other person can put their butt on a stage. So I go, I can control that, that I know how to control, because that's what I did. As far as training to be the best safety. I wasn't the best safety, but as the years went by, guess what? I passed up everybody who was ahead of me. You know, you're the top safety in the league. Well, same thing for being on Broadway, he told me what to do. I did exactly what he told me to do. And 15 years later, I am opening a play in New York City that I wrote that I'm the only guy in and I swear I was so nervous before opening night to run out and look Keith I had played against the biggest and baddest dudes on the planet. You know, I wasn't as scared as going out on a stage to face those dudes. I would rather face refrigerator Perry or Walter Payton than going out on a Broadway stage. And I went out on starting the play, I am having an out of body experience because I'm the only one. I'm talking to the audience. The New York critics are in the house. Everybody's in there. And I make eye contact with a guy right on the row. He's sitting right on the aisle. It's Al Pacino. I had seen him in 15 years. He told me what to do. I did what he said. He's in my play, I wrote, and I'm the only guy, Al Pacino, the best stage performer of all time, is sitting right there on the aisle. That's so cool. And he's nodding his head. He's like, Yeah, I'm doing you did it. And so a you have to have a declaration, and that declaration has to be the best. So the declaration of being the best safety, being the best playwright, being the best stage performer, those things actually come true because you have a declaration which you're living into existence instead of following some to do list, right? I did the same thing for playwriting. I did the same thing with Al Pacino, and that career really set me off because I performed that play 17 years. One play 17 years it immediately gets bought by Castle Rock pictures as a movie. Frank Darabont bought the play as a movie. And I don't know if you know who Frank Darabont is, but he's the guy who wrote and directed the Shawshank Redemption, The Green Mile Saving Private Ryan collateral. He's the guy who his team's TV show he created is The Walking Dead. So this dude was nominated for 12 Academy Awards for writing and directing. He bought my play to produce it for him, and so he hired me, who's never written a screenplay, to write the screenplay for him. This dude has been nominated for 12 Academy Awards for lighting, and he hires me. I go, Dude, don't hire me because I've never written a screenplay. I don't understand it. I don't get it. I'm not a great speller. In fact, I do. Don't even have a computer. And he goes, I don't care about that. I think you can tell the story. Yeah. And I go, okay, so he was hiring me basically based on my guts or my heart, and we did that. So he bought that. I wrote the screenplay for him. Then Leonardi DiCaprio and Toby McGuire come to the play. They come running backstage, they say, Bo, we want you to write a movie for us. And I go, You know what, you guys, I don't write movies. They go, we pay a lot of money for our screenwriters. We think you can do it. And I go, Yeah, based on that money, I think I can do it too. And so the crazy part about this whole thing is it all falls back to this ability to share myself, to tell a story, to tell a story that has physicality to it, that has heart to it, the ability to do that has really given me all these occupations. And then people came to me like business owners from Wall Street. They would come to the play like with their wife, because their wife wanted to go to the theater and they were watching my play. Well, they would come backstage, Keith, and they would say, Hey, man, I want you to bring this to my fortune 500 company. And I'm like, wait, what do you mean? What do you I don't this is a play. I don't take this to Fortune 500 companies. This play, you got to come to the theater. They go, No, we don't want to. I want our sales force. I want our leadership executives to learn to do what you do on stage. I was like, what? I couldn't believe it. Me and my wife, we're like, going, I don't understand what you read. They said it's the funniest thing, because typically, when you're on Broadway, the people who come backstage to see you, they shake your hand, or they get you autograph and they say, Wow, you're a terrific performer. Or what great writing. That's what they usually say, right? Not my play. They come backstage and they don't say, I'm great. This is what they say, Can you teach my people to do what you just did? Yeah, on stage, we're like, of course, because I was taught I could retrace my steps. And I can teach business people, leaders, doesn't matter the business coaches, whatever I can teach them to express themselves in front of other people, which then makes them wealthy, because in the end, I learned Keith that whoever tells the best story wins.

Keith Weinhold 27:33

Yeah, I want to get to the power of story after the break before we do that when one knows that the best that word is out there for them, I think oftentimes they're stricken with fear. Fear is a great obstacle. How do you overcome the fear from listening to you? It seems to me that your mechanism for coping with fear and becoming the best is facing it, getting in there and getting the reps.

Speaker 2 28:00

Yeah, 100% there's a great quote, the world was not created by great men, the world was created by a demanding situation where great men then rose. So we don't know our greatness until we're faced with a demanding situation. So if you're nine, you have no obstacles in your life, you're like, Wow, this is really fun. I'm living on a farm. There's pals, there's horses. What a nice life. And then Bo created his own problem. He created a declaration that said, I want to be the best safety in the world. Well, right then, right when I got creative. Now, Bo's life became a demanding situation where I had to grow strong and I had to eat right, I had to exercise, I had to run faster than anybody else. So I created all these demanding situations for my life. But that's the only way to reveal character. No NFL team is drafting anybody who doesn't have a characteristic that makes you a successful NFL player, and the only way to get those characteristics is to lose is to get your butt kicked, is to face your opposing players that's putting yourself in a demanding situation. So us, you know, as successful guys and successful gals, we kind of get satisfied and so that we forget to keep putting ourselves in demanding situations. That's where the fear comes in. Because once you're in a demanding situation, you get scared. You're like, oh, do I have what it takes to do this? And then you discover by going forward that you actually do. You do have what it takes, and fear is like a made up thing, and you start to realize that you're the creator of your own fear. So look, when I wrote the play in New York, I had never written anything in my life. Like I said, I couldn't spell good. I didn't have a computer, but here's what I did have. I had the ability, because I already did this in my life. I knew how to put myself in a demanding situation and then take a step forward. I knew how to do that based on my football career. I knew it so the principles of being the best safety in the world and being the best playwright in the world are the exact same principles. You have to have the declaration. It has to be at a standard that's way out of your comfort zone that puts you in that demanding situation. Then you have to start running the miles. Then you have to hire an expert coach that sees you clearly, and it is a critical thinker like can see you and go, Bo, stop that. Do that. Stop doing that. And do that just like a nutritionist. Hey, I want to live longer. I want to be there for my daughters when they walk down the aisle. Okay, then you better stop eating this and start eating that. You have to have these experts in your life to fulfill on your birthright of being the best. So now you just break your life down. I just broke my life down like five different times because I enter a new era, like screenplays. How am I going to write a screenplay? I don't know how. I don't understand, but here's what I do. Know how to do. I know how to work. I know how to be the best. Those principles are pretty much the same as safety and playwright. So the guy who buys my play to hire me as a screenplay writer is the greatest screenwriter in Hollywood. So he's the guy paying me, he's the guy coaching me, he's the guy looking over my shoulder going, Bo Don't say that. Say this, say less, do this. Those are just first three principles. We're talking about the best. The standard has to be sky high. Otherwise it's not going to be demanding. It's not going to require enough of your humanity to fulfill on yourself. So it's got to be there. Then you've got to take the time to run the miles to do this thing, and you cut your time in half, or less than a half, by having somebody who is an expert mentor or an expert coach. A guy like Al Pacino, a guy like Frank Darabont who just goes, Bo do this. Don't do that. A guy like Ronnie Lott, both don't do that, do this. And I just do what they say, because, guess what, they're the best in the world at what they do. You guys, those principles, I found I just keep repeating them over and over again. Now a lot of you might be saying, Bo, that's a little much for me, because I don't know Al Pacino or I don't know Ronnie Lott, and I don't know Frank darabonda. You guys, I didn't know him either. I didn't know him either, but I do know this the best in their field, whoever that is, don't say you want to be the wealthiest person on the planet. Well, the wealthiest person on the planet is more available than you think. Guess why? Because everyone thinks they're too busy and they don't ask of their time. You ask of their time. No one's asking of Al Pacino's time. Guess why? Because they don't want what he has. They want to be famous. I wasn't interested in fame. They want to get an agent in Hollywood. I wasn't interested in that. I was interested in what Al Pacino had, which was he was the best stage performer of his time. That they're willing to tell you, because they know if you're asking that question, they want to be involved with you.

Keith Weinhold 33:44

right, because you dared to ask. And they can probably perceive your ambition, and people can sense that, and they love that, and it sure can be scary to say, but fear should be your guide. You should follow your fear. We all know that that's where the growth is. It's like the gap in the game. It's been said that the gap between where we are and where we want to be lies our greatest opportunity for growth. We're talking with former NFL player Bo Eason about being the best. We're going to come back and talk about the power of story. Next. I'm Keith Weinhold. You're listening to get rich education.

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Matt Bowles 36:08

Hey everybody. This is Matt Bowles from Maverick investor group you're listening to get rich education with Keith Weinhold and don't quit your Daydream.

Keith Weinhold 36:27

Welcome back to get rich education. We're on a mindset journey today to help you level up, be a better person and even be the best.Talking with former NFL football player Bo Eason, and Bo, you're such a powerful storyteller, and I think it's a really important time to be a powerful storyteller. Trust in institutions seems to be at an all time low, from the government to the media. This is partly why the rise of influencer culture has become a thing. So tell us about how a powerful personal story can build instant trust and connection in seconds. Even when it seems like trust is at an all time low.

Bo Eason 37:07

it is at an all time low. That's what Gallup does a poll every year on trust. The question they ask is, do you trust your neighbor? And it's at its lowest it's ever been. They started this in 1972 but it's down to single digits. This is your neighbor. This isn't somebody across the street. This is this isn't somebody in the next town or the next state you know, or the next country. This person you share a backyard fence with.

Keith Weinhold 37:34

right? Like you're afraid to ask them to check for packages on your front porch when you're on a vacation or something. Yeah, the trust

Bo Eason 37:41

below. But everybody gets depressed by the statistic. I get excited about it because there is one group of us that can restore trust. It is the storyteller. It's not just the storyteller, you guys, it's the person who can share themselves personal story, not just a story, although stories, you know, work, and they've always worked for 1000s of years, but personal stories move the dial the most. Give you the most Trust, the most credibility. Personal stories like if I say to you a sentence like this, when I was nine years old, I had this dream, so I decided to draw up a 20 year plan to achieve my dream. If I tell you a sentence like that, you and me, even though it's a simple sentence, right? It's personal to me. Well, personal equals universal. Whenever you're telling a personal story, it affects your audience that much more, because your audience locates themselves inside of your story. That is the science of storytelling, and that's why you earn trust by sharing yourself personally. Now most people don't want to do that. They push back, especially business people, especially left brain, analytical type people, they say to me, Bo I'm not going to share myself, because who cares about my story? And I say everybody, you're just telling the wrong story. You have to tell it very personal and very specific to you, and it has to be a pain point. It has to be a low point in your life. That's where you start the story, because if you start at the top, there's no place to go with story. It's like, think of rocky everybody. Sylvester Stallone was a very smart guy. He was an unemployed actor, and he said, I'm going to employ myself for the rest of my life. Guess how he plays the role of Rocky? He writes the role of Rocky. Who does he put in front of him, Apollo Creed, the greatest heavyweight champion in the world, a character named after a god that's called great storytelling. He put Mount Everest in front of him. And if you notice, that's what he's always done every movie he writes. He's given himself a career because he puts himself at the base of Mount Everest every time. Well, that's where I want you to put yourself. What is your story? Where did you get rejected? It's always at a younger age. You know, Michael Jordan's story is the same as Tom Brady's story is the same story that I have, which is, we all were rejected in high school. We all were told we weren't good enough to play a high school sport. So what did we become the best in our fields? That's what always happens. That's always the story of an elite athlete. So I want you guys sharing yourselves with these stories, and these stories are kind of the ones you kind of don't want to tell because they reveal certain things about you that are kind of humiliating. But humility is the best connective tissue that us human beings have. Isn't that weird? Embarrassment is a great connective tissue success. Isn't that connective? Isn't that weird?

Keith Weinhold 40:58

Yeah, I mean, embarrassment is self deprecating. Most people like that, and everyone can relate to failing.

Bo Eason 41:05

Yep, there's three rules I live by when it comes to storytelling. You guys knew. Number one, it's got to be personal. It's got to be personal. The more personal, the richer you are. It's got to be personal. Guys, I've talked you into this, if I haven't already. Number two, you guys, if you're thinking about wealth, I would think about it in those terms right now. Secondly, it's got to be physical. Stories are physical living things, living, breathing, human things. You can't tell a story like a boring people tell stories they Well, when I grew up, I was poor, and then I walked over to the store, they wouldn't let me have a candy bar. It's boring, it's stupid. It is not physical. You have to embody the story with your physicality. You have to become your story, you guys. I know this might sound crazy to you, but the more physical you are in your life. Now, listen to me, the more physical you are in your life, the more money you make. People don't trust what comes out of anybody else's mouth anymore. They don't trust it. They trust your body 100% of the time. I wish you could see my body right now, because it is alive, and you could probably feel it even though I'm you can just hear my voice. You can hear the physicality of the residents of my voice. Now, the more physical you are in your life, the richer you are, and that's across the board. I don't care if you're a ballet dancer, I don't care if your speaker. I don't care what your occupation is. If you are physical and unapologetic about your physicality, then you're going to make a lot of money. But if you're walking around on eggshells, people know it. If you're walking around apologizing for your masculinity or your femininity, and you're like, you know, you're just half stepping everything. You see people like this all the time. What do you do with them? You dismiss them. But when somebody walks in and you turn your head, you know to look. You heard somebody come in behind you, you turn and look, why? Because they have a presence and they're unapologetic. That is a learned trait, or I should say it's relearning human trait. I've been trained by the greatest movement coach in the world, you guys. The only reason I was trained by him 17 years I was trained by him because every time I saw somebody acknowledge when they won the Academy Award an actor, they would acknowledge this guy. And I go, who the hell this guy that everyone keeps acknowledging keeps thanking for their Academy Award for some performance. I want to know what this guy's doing. I want to know what he's doing with these performers. And he told me where I went and met him. He goes, No one has ever won an award for what they said. No one it's what they did physically. That's how you win. And he's the guy who taught me well. So you guys, number one, the story has got to be personal. Number two, the story has got to be physical, unapologetic. It's so attractive when this happens. That's what I train people to do, because that's what I was trained to do. And then when all these CEOs and stuff started coming to the play, that's what they wanted, that now, you guys, they didn't know to ask me that. They just said, Can you teach my people to do what you do on stage? I go, of course, because I was taught the thing they wanted most was they wanted people to trust their sales people or their leadership team. They wanted all their employees, including them, to be physical in the world, because that is powerful. And you're going to watch this. You can watch this in elections. You can watch this in politicians. The reason they hide behind those podiums is their body betrays them. Their body betrays them. If I ever got hired to coach them, which I've always turned them down, I would put them out in the open like an animal so we can see their whole body, because that we can trust but we don't trust somebody standing behind a podium. Very critical.

Keith Weinhold 45:23

Well, there's a lot there. Yes, so much is conveyed through body language. People like decisiveness and commitment. You talk about how to make a story personal. When you had mentioned when you were nine years old, you laid out a 20 year plan for your life. When you said that me as a listener, that just makes me naturally want to lean in and ask a question about that and let you go on, for example. But when you talk about how stories need to be made personal, why don't we wrap up on how does storytelling work in business? Then say that a real estate investor is trying to attract co investors to his apartment building deal. For example, how would you use story there?

Bo Eason 46:07

Oh, yeah, great question. So many of my clients are people that raise money, whether it's for profit or non profit. They are in the business of building a company, and so they're always asking for money. Well, there's a guy used to run a studio in Hollywood, I think it was Warner Brothers, and he did an experiment. He was building a studio. So he needed millions and millions of dollars, so he went to all his rich friends, and he put a contract out in front of them. One contract only had numbers and percentages and columns written on it. Here's how much you'll invest. Tell us how much you'll make after five years all that stuff. The other contract was the same deal, no numbers, no monies, no percentages, only story, a story of belonging, a story of making a difference. He says, 100% choose the story contract, not the numbers, purpose. There's nothing. There's nothing to connect to. Yeah, I work in the finance world a lot. You guys, people, you know, high wealth, they always want to talk about numbers. And I'm like, rich people are all right brain. You know that? So every billionaire, every millionaire in the world, is right brain, not left right their right brain. But the people managing their money or raising their money are left brain. So they want to talk about numbers. And I'm saying, you guys, you can't talk about numbers, because rich people don't know what you're talking about. Rich people want to belong. They want to see themselves inside the business that you're building. So you better have a hell of a story, and that best story wins no matter what, Best Story wins. If you and me are both building a skyscraper in New York City. If I got a better story than you, guess what skyscrapers gonna get built? Mine. That's got nothing to do with money, because money is everywhere. Money's like air. It's more abundant than air and water. There's money everywhere. But what are rich people attracted to story? Why do you think they call it show business? Show, I'm the show, you're the show. You're the storyteller. The Business People bring the money to the show so rich people don't know how to make movies, they don't know how to tell stories, but they want to give you the money so that you can tell yours. Of course, that's how this thing works. That's why show and business always go together. There's a great saying rich men, when they sit down to dinner, they speak of art. When artists sit down to dinner, they speak of money. Artists sit down to dinner, they speak of money. When finance people sit down to dinner, they speak of art. So they're completing one another. You've got to be an artist. You've got to be able to tell your story, because their dreams and their big bank accounts relying on your vision of what you're going to build that makes you an artist, that makes you here go build what you've got to build here. I want to be a part of it.

Keith Weinhold 49:28

Yeah, I've never heard that before that's remarkable in using story to connect with others, something that seems to be bleeding and so badly needed for connectivity today. Well, Bo this has been great, talking about the best, talking about the power of story. You do so many things to help people in their own growth journey and to expand their own mindset. Tell us about your resource for that.

Bo Eason 49:56

You know what? Because the first thing that when I say, look. Got to find your personal story. Most people go, I don't have one. Well, that's just not true. Everybody has a story. I've worked with 1000s of people, and everyone's got a great, dramatic story. They just don't know it. So I'll send you a free story guide. It's a video course. It's going to give you some prompts, and we're going to find your powerful, personal signature story, so you can begin to use it today. So all you got to do is text me. So text PERSONAL STORY, the word PERSONAL STORY, one word personal story. Text that to this number, 323-310-5504. that's text. Personal story. One word, personal story, to 323-310-5504, text me that, and I will automatically send you a story guide. To start to uncover this thing,you'll start to realize, Wow, I do have a cool story that I can begin to tell whether I'm in the Oval Office or whether I'm in front of 1500 people at us in a speech, you can open with your personal story. It works and it attracts people to you. If I was in your guys shoes, you're interested in building wealth. Me too. If I'm building wealth, guess what? I'm beginning with personal story, and then I just get to go right to the top, because people are only interested in other people who have a vision bigger than the people have for themselves. And that's you. That's you. And your personal story, you have a vision that is bigger than the people have for themselves. If you can do that, guess what? People got to buy into that, they got to invest in, that they got to be around that. They got to marry that.

Keith Weinhold 51:47

Oh, you're so right. I really think this is going to help a lot of our listeners. You the listener, you probably have several good stories inside you, and Bo can really help bring them out, who have the benefit of seeing him on video, he's a really powerful speaker. I've had that same benefit of seeing him on video. You've only listened to him so far. Check out his resource if you think you can benefit from it. Bo, he said, It's surely been valuable. Thanks so much for coming on to the show.

Bo Eason 52:15

Keith, thanks for having me.

Keith Weinhold 52:23

Oh, such sharp insights from a motivating guy, Bo Eason, this week. And hey, if you have kids, are you going to wake them up by hard, rubbing their back in the morning and telling them you're the best? Well, it seemed to work for a little review about what you learned. Bo talked about how the standard is the gold medal, not the end goal, but that the gold medal is actually the standard. That's his mindset. So Bo made sure he met Al Pacino. When they got dinner, he found out that Pacino was the best, so he sought out the best and made sure to get around him. And a lot of people are scared to do that or even ask about the best. And, you know, I just can't help but think that that's like my life experience with women. In high school, I was just so shy and deathly afraid to ask anyone out. But in college and beyond, you know, sometimes I would ask out the most attractive woman, and they would usually say no, but, you know, I can't believe some of them actually would say yes. And see, the more that you do this, the more confident you get. And women like confidence, and can feel that coming from you. And then, so therefore your fear dissipates and it becomes easier to overcome. You have a unique fingerprint in this world, and you yourself. You do have an interesting story. I just know that you have it in you, but the chances are you've never even told your highest and best story to one other human being on this earth, not even once, and perhaps I haven't either. Bo said his stories need to be personal, physical and unapologetic, and his video, course, helps you find your personal story. And if you didn't catch that again, you can get it by texting one word PERSONALSTORY to 323-310-5504.

Coming up in future weeks here on the show, it's probably Yeah, more left brain strategic real estate investing content than right brained emotional content like today's show. But one right brain topic coming up on the show that I want to share with you. I want to tell you why, as a society, we hate Amazon founder Jeff Bezos, because he's wealthy. But yet, society does not dislike wealthy singers like Olivia Rodrigo, Taylor Swift and Dua Lipa. We love them even though they're wealthy. We. Don't resent an actor like Robert Downey, Jr for making $600 million as an actor in the Marvel Cinematic Universe. So it's all about why we vilify successful entrepreneurs for their wealth, including landlords, yet somehow we glorify successful actors, athletes and entertainers for being wealthy. It's a case study that I've been working on. I shared some of it with our newsletter readers last week, and I'll have more on that here on the show. Signing off from the Grand New Orleans investment conference, the nation's longest running investing conference. I'm your host. Keith Weinhold, don't quit your Daydream.

Speaker 3 55:43

Keith Weinhold 56:03

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Mon, 18 November 2024

Keith discusses trends in the housing market, including the rising average age of first-time homebuyers and the mix of markets seeing price increases versus declines. He analyzes the potential impact of the incoming presidential administration's policies on real estate, particularly around inflation and interest rates. He is joined by Investor, Co-Founder and CEO of Family Freedom Investments, Dani Lynn Robison to highlight high-yield investment opportunities available, including up to 10% returns.

Home prices have fallen in six US cities.

The average age of a first time homebuyer rose to an astounding 38 years old.

Discover the top 10 states with the highest home price appreciation over the last 40 years.

The Trump Effect.

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527: Countdown to Disaster—Four Threats Facing the U.S. with Richard Duncan

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Keith Weinhold 0:01

Welcome to GRE I'm your host. Keith Weinhold, home prices have fallen in six US cities. The average age of a first time home buyer soars to an astounding 38 years old. Then we take the long view breaking down how real estate is up a jaw dropping 490% since 1984 the Trump effect on real estate, then how you can earn an eight to 10% cash on cash return, hassle free. All today on Get Rich Education.

Speaker 1 0:36

since 2014 the powerful get rich education podcast has created more passive income for people than nearly any other show in the world. This show teaches you how to earn strong returns from passive real estate investing in the best markets without losing your time being a flipper or landlord. Show Host Keith Weinhold writes for both Forbes and Rich Dad advisors, and delivers a new show every week since 2014 there's been millions of listener downloads of 188 world nations. He has a list show guests include top selling personal finance author Robert Kiyosaki. Get rich education can be heard on every podcast platform, plus it has its own dedicated Apple and Android listener phone apps build wealth on the go with the get rich education podcast. Sign up now for the get rich education podcast or visit get rich education.com

Corey Coates 1:21

You're listening to the show that has created more financial freedom than nearly any show in the world. This is get rich education.

Keith Weinhold 1:38

Welcome to GRE from St Louis, Missouri, to say Luis, Obispo, California, and across 188 nations worldwide, even Uzbekistan. I'm Keith Weinhold, and you are inside. Get rich education every week. It's the show where I pretend that I'm not wearing pajama pants while here on the microphone. Hey, if you want to get rich, then focus on one thing. If you're already there and want to stay rich, then that's the point in which you want to diversify, because then you're already living your Daydream and you don't want to lose it. We'll talk about President elect Trump later in this week's show, and what it means for the future of the real estate market.

Donald Trump 2:20

Thank you verymuch. So this outfit you know is when they when he called us all garbage. How stupid. What a stupid word. That blows deplorable away. Don't you think.

Keith Weinhold 2:21

well, our content will surely be more substantive than that funny piece I expect to host Donald Trump here on the show for you in the future. After all, let's not forget, before politics, he was most known as a real estate investor, but he's going to be busy for the next four years, so it could be a while until you see him here, before we get to the Trump effect. Last week, the NAR released their annual report. It's called the profile of buyers and sellers. My gosh, what a surprise when it revealed that the average age of a first time homebuyer rose to an astounding 38 years old. 38 I mean, we're not talking about a person that's like, severely underemployed or something. We're talking about the average here. So for many, I mean, they are still a renter into their 40s. That is common now. I mean, at this rate, pretty soon, are Americans going to become homeowners once they hit retirement? I mean, my gosh, is that where we're headed? Or when one looks at their rites of passage, the milestones in their lives, will one achieve grand parenthood before buying a first home? Where are we going here? Not only is 38 years old, the all time high, as you might have expected, but that is up from age 35 just last year, amazing. And like I've discussed before, of course, the major reason that that age is up is due to lower affordability, and that's from higher prices and higher interest rates. The housing shortage is another factor here too. And all right, if that's not enough, the average age of us homebuyers, okay, this is just overall homebuyers, first timers and everyone else. That was 49 last year, and this spiked up to 56 this year. 56 and now back to first time homebuyers, the average income has also hit an all time high, $97,000 that is the average income of a first time homebuyer now. So what's important to keep in mind here is people are going to have to rent longer they're already. Renting longer. And some will choose to rent longer as a preference, and for others, they must rent longer. You can be the one to provide them with this rental housing, not the big hedge funds doing it, not private equity doing it. Invest in real estate. These trends mean higher occupancy rates and upward pressure on the rent amounts that you're going to be able to charge over time. I mean, this is demand, demand, demand for rental housing. They wish that they could buy that $300,000 starter home in the Midwest in southeast, but they have a hard time affording the down payments and qualifying for the loan they're after so you can rent it to them and be a profiteer longer. However, right now, there are six US cities where home prices are falling and now these are pretty mild corrections, but let's see if you can guess what the top reason for this is the number one reason about why these prices are falling among the nation's 50 largest metros. These are the six cities that have seen price corrections. New Orleans leads the way down the most down 4% Austin, Texas is also down almost 4% San Antonio down 2.7%, Tampa, Florida down one half of 1% Jacksonville down three tenths of 1% and then finally, Dallas, Texas, also down three tenths of 1% and in fact, I am visiting three of those six cities during a 10 day stretch that I'm on right here, right now. Over the weekend, I was in San Antonio, Texas. Today, the mobile GRE studio is in effect again, as I'm bringing you today's show from here in Austin, Texas, where I'm spending four days, and then I'll be in New Orleans in two days here. Well, the top reason for these falling home prices is in a word, supply. In fact, it's an oversupply in a lot of these six cities. And again, those six are New Orleans, Austin, San Antonio, Tampa, Jacksonville and Dallas. In fact, here in Austin, they are a, basically a national leader in over supply, they simply overbuilt, and it's going to take some time to absorb all that they've built. In fact, due to overbuilding, you've even got rents falling here in Austin, and I may look at some vacant apartments while I'm here to get the temperature of the market. Now, for some context, understand, though, that I spotlighted six falling markets out of the 50. All right, well, what about the other ones? Yes, that indeed means that 44, of America's 50 largest metros have seen year over year price increases, and one big reason for that is that many metros have housing shortages. Shortages are the norm, and by the way, all these figures are per the Zillow home index. In fact, a number of markets are up over 4% 5% 6% year over year, and the leaders all have seven to 8% year over year. Home price appreciation, they are San Jose, Hartford, New York City and Providence and a lot of the appreciation leaders are, yep, under supply, the opposite of what I'm seeing here in Austin.

Now, before I get to the headline of this week's episode, how national home prices were up a breathtaking 490% over the last 40 years. Let's talk about the Trump effect. It's still two months before Donald John Trump will be sworn in as a 47th president of the United States, and like macroeconomist Richard Duncan and I touched on on last week's show, Trump loves tariffs. Everyone knows that, and a tariff is like a tax on imported goods. Now follow along here. Higher tariffs mean then higher consumer prices, because the company or manufacturer has to pass that cost along to you. Higher prices means inflation. Higher inflation means that the Fed tends to keep interest rates higher longer in order to combat that inflation. So a Trump presidency means higher inflation in interest rates. Again, yes, at least those two things are correlated. And now think this through. Do you sense some cognitive dissonance here, under Trump's first term, back from 2017 to 2021 he wanted lower interest rates, and Trump was like highly vocal about how he wanted Jerome Powell to keep rates low in order to keep the economy healthy so the higher rates that Trump Tariffs are expected to bring then versus the lower rates that Trump wants is dissonant, incongruent, not in harmony. Bitcoin surged on the news of a second Trump presidency, because Trump is pro crypto. No see treasury yields, they also spiked upon the Trump presidency news just two weeks ago, I explained here on the show why higher inflation means higher treasury yields, which means higher mortgage rates. And it turned out that that was quite a timely explanation. The Trump election can mean a lower tax environment. We are hopeful that Trump will extend bonus depreciation, a really nice tax break for real estate investors. We could see some federal lands repurposed for housing construction. Trump said that he wanted to do that in order to add more housing supply. And no, don't worry. I don't think they're going to shut down and pave over Yellowstone and plug Old Faithful Geyser or anything like that. Okay, there's a lot of federal land that's, I guess, less remarkable, land that's being grazed on, and land suitable for more housing. Look for more move to loosen up zoning and regulation, and that's something where you'll find bipartisan agreement we've got to build to address the housing crisis. I mean, Trump has actually called zoning a killer, like he used that phrase you might see Trump extend the opportunity Zone program as well. The result could be more apartment construction in some of these blighted or low income urban areas, no matter what, and no matter who our president would have been. I mean, you're still gonna see housing supplies struggle to keep up with demand, because you just can't build fast enough. And you know something here, you never really know the future. People always want to speculate about the future that can be worth talking about. And you know that makes people think that they have the answer, but they're often wrong about one thing leading to the other, like how tariffs will end up meaning higher mortgage rates. I mean, you just don't know that for sure. Policies can change. Promises might not get followed up on, Black Swans can interject, and interest rates are one thing that are just wildly difficult to predict. And if you ever want to make another person look wrong, like if you desire to do that, here's all you need to do, ask them where interest rates are going to go in the future, and make them put that in writing. Okay, that is a guaranteed way to make somebody wrong. So everyone wants to know the future, but you've got to think through this in terms of probabilities and not certainties.

Now here's something encouraging, California voters, they shot down rent control expansion, though you might live in California, we are not exactly passionate about investing in California property for pretty well documented reasons, but sometimes things that start in New York and California in those particular states, they can expand to the nation. So it's worth paying attention to some of these things, and California voters resoundly rejected what is known as Proposition 33 rent control expansion. Almost 62% voted no on that. So you've got bipartisan alignment on how rent control backfires on renters in this was the third time in six years that California voters shot down rent control expansion. Great. That is great because rent control, it's not good for you, the investor, long term. It's not even good for the tenant, and it's certainly not good for the community either. I mean, they are collectivist state price controls.

Well, let's look at another place where prices are not being controlled for sure, and that is the fact that overall, US home prices have appreciated a whopping 490% since 1984 Yes, 490% over the last 40 years, therefore almost a 5x price increase. Let's break this down, and then I'll tell you what it means for the future too. This is the shift in US home prices from August 1984 to August 2024 so therefore it starts from mid Reagan presidency, when the median home price was $81,000 at that time. Okay, so this is our starting point, 1984 that's the year Ghostbusters hit movie theaters. Kareem Abdul Jabbar broke the all time NBA scoring record. And shows that debuted on television that year were Miami, Vice night, court, punky, Brewster. Are Charles in Charge? Have you heard of these shows? Another TV oh boy, another TV show that debuted in 1984 Well, Chase, are you ready for this? Let me give you a hint, Temple University. And how about jello? Pudding pops? Yes, I'm talking about the Cosby Show, which just feels kind of different to talk about anymore, ever since Bill Cosby's illicit misconduct there. And no, we are not going to play a snippet of the Cosby Show theme music. Please don't play it. You know, we totally do something like that here, but we're not this time. Okay? Well, with home prices surging and astounding 490% since that year, 1984 Okay, let's break down the areas that have appreciated the most and least and see what that means. And you might remember that in our newsletter, I sent you this map that shows the level of each individual state's 40 year price search. Oh, this is great. It's just the best real estate map I've seen in a while. What it shows is that coastal states are where home prices have risen the most. In general, the top 10 in appreciation in order are Washington State up 810% yes, that's more than 8x in the last 40 years. The next highest home appreciation over the last four decades in order is Oregon, Rhode Island, California, and then it's Hawaii, Montana, Massachusetts, Maine, Idaho. And 10th is Utah, all right. Well, why have coastal states had this higher real estate run up over time? Well, it's where building constraints exist that limits the housing supply. That's both geographic constraints, like, for example, the ocean's edge literally limits build space there. Well, the coasts are also where you tend to have more building regulation. Coasts are where incomes have risen the most those residents can afford more for housing. So home prices are then higher. I mean, just look at the leader Washington state. That's where you've got the headquarters for Amazon, Microsoft, Costco, Boeing, Starbucks, Expedia and more. They're all there now, taxes, though, they do tend to be highest in coastal states as well, so you're paying more for property, and you're also paying more in all types of taxes in a lot of cases. And as we know, rental properties usually don't work as well on the coasts, coastal rents haven't risen as much as home prices, and these places, they tend to have those laws and regulations that often favor tenants over landlords. And if you're looking at the map here like I am, you're going to note that some Rocky Mountain states have flexed their appreciation muscles as well. Now, Tennessee and the Texas triangle, they kind of decided to join the appreciation party fashionably late, as you look over 40 years. Yes, Tennessee and Texas, they really only started their big appreciation climb about a decade ago. All right, so those are some of the big winners every year since Punky Brewster debuted on television. Well, with today's rise of remote work and lower home affordability, the nation's interior, that's what looks increasingly desirable for property ownership the Midwest, the Great Plains, parts of the south and parts of the inland northeast. That makes these areas look like comparative deals where prices haven't wildly run up over the decades. And though you hear about return to Office policies, because a few major companies announce these return to Office policies. I mean, remote work is still up fully 15% year over year, and housing preferences are shifting as employees look to suburban Metro outskirts for more affordable homes so they're freed from the need to factor in these lengthy commutes in their lives like they had to previously. Now, among states that don't have strong in migration, one that could really shine is a place like Ohio. Ohio has appreciated less than most states still at 334% over the past four decades. Again, 490% is The National number. Ohio boasts tons of diverse industry, a low cost of living. They've got the seventh highest population in the nation. They have a stable population count for rental property owners. It has strong laws favoring landlords and Ohio. Is just a day's drive from half of North America's population. All right, so a smart listener like you is probably asking yourself a question right now, like, Okay, how does this 40 year stretches 490% rise in national home prices compare to inflation, and how does it compare to incomes? Over this time there's been 201% overall inflation and us, median household incomes have risen 260% and yeah, that 201% inflation number is suspect, just like most any inflation figure is inflation could certainly be higher than that, because most inflation measures likely understate the true diminished purchasing power of your dollar, and see the 490% rise. Although it sounds like a staggering number, and it still kind of is. It's also like, well, of course, it takes almost five times as many dollars to buy a home today, because each dollar's value is way down. What else has changed in the last 40 years? Well, houses are larger now than they were then. The median home size has grown 150% since 1980 and at the same time, the family size is smaller, fewer people live in each home, so everyone has more space. And I discussed those types of things in detail with you before, so I won't get into all of that again. Today's homes have better amenities too. So really, the point is, if you are paying more on an inflation adjusted basis, you are getting more and it's also more likely that two parents are working today rather than one, in order to make those payments more affordable. And that fact right there that is not a great lifestyle outcome. Another way to say it is that it takes two to afford a home today rather than one. But yet, hey, that is society. All right. So with that understanding, let's look at the future. I completely believe that real estate values can soar another 490% over the next 40 years. I mean, even 600 or 700% is not out of the question, and there are a lot of reasons for this. I mean, chiefly, we're starting from a base here of a low housing supply, and we've got strong demographic demand, and we can almost certainly expect more monetary inflation the next four decades. The inflation rate is the one thing that nobody knows. 40 years ago, mortgage rates were 14% today, they're only at about half of that level. And see today's median home price of over 400k like that figure would have seemed unfathomable to people back in 1984 but indeed, the price nearly 5x So similarly, another 490% or about 5x again, means that it is completely fathomable for the median us home to cost $2 million in another 40 years. That's about 5x of today's prices. And although that might sound unrealistic Now, that sounds just as unrealistic as today's price did to anyone from 1984 so really a super interesting way to think about home price appreciation. There, you might even make the case that home values, not prices, home values, they're not up that much at all. I mean, most of that is just that prices have adjusted for inflation, the value is about the same, although I'd still say that the value is up somewhat. So really, that's my thought there, and I duly regret bringing Bill Cosby into this whole thing. I ruined it.

I've been coming to you here from Austin, Texas, where I've been checking out the real estate market. I've got more for you straight ahead. It is a really profitable idea. I'm Keith Weinhold. There will only ever be one episode, 528, of the GRE podcast, and you're listening to it,

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Robert Kiyosaki 26:05

this Rich Dad, Poor Dad. Author Robert Kiyosaki, listen to get rich education with Keith Weinhold,and there is I respect Keith, He's a very strong, smart, bright young man.

Keith Weinhold 26:25

Welcome back to GRE. We are grateful to have on the show today, the co founder and CEO of the whole operation, Freedom family Investments. They are seven, soon to be eight. I just learned real estate centric companies based in Centerville, Ohio. The other co founder is her husband, Flip, whom you've heard on the show before. Hey, it's terrific to have back. Danni-Lynn Robinson,

Dani-Lynn Robison 26:50

thank you so much, Keith. I love talking to you.

Keith Weinhold 26:54

It's the same here. You've been in real estate since 2008 and one of the things that you do is you have this perfect track record of always returning capital to your individual private investors, loans that they make to you, and paying 100% of the returns as promised, even if you yourselves end up losing money on a particular deal. And in fact, you the listener, you probably heard me talk about how I personally participate for a high yield return with them myself, with Danny Lynn's company backing me. You've heard that ad near the middle of GRE episodes, and you yourself can do this too. Individual investors can get a high yielding return, and it's paid to you as cash. So Danny Lynn, tell us about how it works. Generally.

Dani-Lynn Robison 27:40

I love that you started off with that particular statement, because I will tell you that every time I've been on a podcast of yours, the number one thing I hear when people get on the phone was you said on that podcast that even if you lose money, that I still get my return. And I have never heard of that before, so tell me more. So that was a perfect lead in because I think that what we're trying to do is just do a very good job of serving the people who help us build so as you said, we're on company number seven. We're building company number eight. And the reason that we've gotten to the stage that we are today is because we've had private lenders and people who invest in our syndication, our Master notes and our funds program, that investment has allowed us to buy properties, flip properties, buy apartments, flip apartments, and allowed them to get a return at the same time. And I've talked about the fact that we do volume as we've grown, we'll do 10 deals in any given month, and maybe one or two of them are like we find something, you know, in the wall that we didn't expect. Maybe we walk in and the past tenant left it in shambles and caused more damage to the property than we anticipated when we first went in. That's the nature of real estate, and that's the risk you take when you're an active real estate investor. So we knew when we were building our businesses that if we just did volume, that was going to happen, and we weren't going to run away from that fact, or take risk upon us or our investors by not mitigating it, by not doing volume. So you'll see situations where somebody does one flip a month, and that happens to them, and it's catastrophic when you're doing 10, and it happens which it will then you know that the other eight are going to bring the profit in. And so that it is easy for us to say, Thank you, Keith, for investing in us. This particular deal. We didn't lose any money on, but these eight we made a lot of money on, and that ensures that we can always pay you back in full on time, even if we lost money on a deal. And I think when that is explained to people on the phone, they start understanding why we can pay back everything as promised, even if we lose money, because we are still profitable as a company. And so that process of doing volume and having people. People trust us with their funds. As we've grown, has allowed us to get to Company Number eight, because, as we talked about right before we press record, one of the best things for us, Flip says, I love being Santa Claus. And Santa Claus is when you get that email or that check in the bank account that says, I just made money and I didn't have to do anything. I just partnered with Flip, Danny and the freedom team to do what they do already. I provided the money. They did the work. We all won together.

Keith Weinhold 30:29

Why does no real estate rehabber ever find gold bars behind a wallwhen they go in in order to turn over a property? Right? It's usually, you know, evidence of a leak or something bad, usually not something good going on back there. But yes, you do this volume across all these companies. So therefore, when you do find a leak behind a wall, and that particular deal didn't work out for a 100k rehab home, it sure can't bring down the entire operation. Danny Lynn, I've invested with you in your private money lending program for years now, and just been very open with my audience. I've let them know that I've been receiving an 8% return from you paid in cash. But one reason I'm having you back now to help our audience is because you now offer yields up to 10% so even better than when I got in. So tell us about that.

Dani-Lynn Robison 31:24

So we are always having conversations with our investors about what's going on in their investing journey, what are they looking for, and we want to create those win wins. And right now, with everything that's going on in the market, what we learned is liquidity is one of the most important pieces, because there's here, there's some uncertainty, and people want to invest. They don't want their money sitting idle and losing, having an eroding to inflation. They want to put it to work, but they want to have access to it. And so we have been changing and tweaking our programs to meet the needs of our investors, and making sure that we are buying properties that can then have that arbitrage to get us the profit we need to pay back our investors, but while we're still making a profit many times right now in this market, that does mean we're buying multi family properties, because there's so many different advantages to multi family properties, it does take a lot of underwriting to get there, but that's where, for the last, I would say, six to 12 months, we've been really focused in on that in order to increase the returns and have everybody just creating that win win.

Keith Weinhold 32:32

I'm really glad that you talked about multifamily properties, because I've talked with the audience about how the sector is beaten down. In a lot of places, you can get 30% discounts on multifamily apartment buildings, and we know that the long term demand is going to be there for occupancy in apartment buildings. Demographics is destiny, and we talk about this timing of having you on and now you're offering up to 8% discussing this, say, two and a half years ago, I don't think the timing was as good. That's when CPI inflation peaked at 9.1% so you really weren't getting a real yield. You need to subtract inflation from your yield in order to get a real return. And now you're getting a substantial real return. Since inflation is near 2% top online savings accounts, those top interest rates, they are falling with each successive federal funds rate cut, and most expect that those yields are going to continue to fall. People invest in bonds all the time, but the yield on the 10 year T note has been around 4% or quite a while. You don't have to settle for yields like that. And Danny Lynn, I love that you brought up the word arbitrage. This should be an arbitrage play for you the listener. But of course, for Danny Lynn, it needs to be an arbitrage play as well, because if she and her family of companies over there are paying you a yield of up to 10% they need to make arbitrage ontop of that themselves. And if you're a new listener, you might be skeptical of how you could reliably do that in real estate, but when you understand that real estate pays up to five ways at the same time and 30 to 40% total rate of returns without inordinate risk, are not dream land, the reality you can begin to understand the arbitrage. But Danny Lynn, can you tell us a bit more about how you do create that arbitrage to reliably pay a return of up to 10% How do you yourselves beat that in there?

Dani-Lynn Robison 34:26

That's where it comes down to multifamily. For us, the single family market has slowed down a little bit, and so multifamily is enabling us to do bigger things. But on a long term basis, we've built our companies up enough to a point where we are businesses are producing the cash flow that we need so we can pay our investors a higher return using the cash flow of the properties, and our long term wealth as a company is coming from down the line of the appreciation, especially in multifamily, the forced appreciation, and that refinance and that when. Fall. So everything that we structure is preferred returns, meaning we always pay our investors first and we come last when it comes to multifamily, those five ways start to compound over time, and that's what we really win, is because we know we're waiting, but we're waiting for a big return in 3,5,7, years. Sometimes we're waiting 1020, years, and our investors in the meantime are getting a really nice return better than they can in most other places, because we're willing to forfeit our current returns in this scenario, because our other businesses are producing the cash flow that we need.

Keith Weinhold 35:38

That's terrific. Tell us a bit about the program details. Then how is this note? Right? Because the investor, as soon as they make an investment with you, they do hold on to a note. Just tell us about how that's secured before we get into the details.

Dani-Lynn Robison 35:53

So it depends on the investment opportunity. Some investments are going to be secured by a note by the property. Some investments are going to be secured by a note by the business. Some investments are going to be secured by the fund itself. You're an actual owner, like or the syndication, an actual owner of what that fund is participating in. So every piece of security is a little bit different. So when you jump on the phone with us. We're asking a lot of questions, and the number one question that we ask is, what are your goals? Because if you do want liquidity, we know exactly where you're going to go. And some people are wanting liquidity for peace of mind, so that they can earn a higher return, but have access to the cash if they want it. Some investors are saying, Hey, I know there's about to be a lot of opportunities. So I want my money earning for me, but I want to be able to grab it, to be able to invest in these future opportunities that are going to come my way when I want access to the capital for that reason. Then there's other investors that are set it and forget it. Look. I like you guys. I trust you guys. I've vetted you guys. I've done my due diligence on you guys. I want to sit my money in there for three, five years. Some want tax benefits. And so what we do is we have, like, this table of investments with like, little check boxes. And as people tell us their goals, we're like, okay, they're there. They're by the end of the conversation, we're saying, here's the two investment opportunities we think fits what you like and what is going to meet your needs? What do you think? And then we start going with question and answers back and forth so they can fully understand it.

Keith Weinhold 37:27

We're talking about how to get a high yield paid to you regularly in cash with Danny Lynn Robi son, co founder of freedom family investments. Yeah. Danny Lynn, why don't you tell us then about this up to 10% return. But you do have some option based on people's needs for the duration of the investment, which gets into the liquidity and the minimum investment amount and being accredited versus not accredited. So tell us about some of those distinctions, differences and trade offs.

Dani-Lynn Robison 37:55

There's the accredited and non accredited piece, which is really the first piece that you should be talking about when you jump on the phone, because the answer to that question depends on where, like we first check the box of which investment opportunity is going to be right for you. Accredited investors can invest in both. Non accredited investors can only invest in non accredited options. So accredited, I'm sure you've explained many times on the podcast, is a million dollars net worth, minus your primary residence, or earning $200,000 for the last two years, and you expect to earn it again. Or if you're a married couple, earning $300,000 a year for the last two years and you expect to do it again, that would be an accredited investor. So if you qualify there, we've got multiple opportunities. Then if you're wanting liquidity, then, again, that's a checkbox for us that says liquidity fund. That's where you want to be learning more about you want to learn about those interest rates the liquidity fund is seven, eight and 10% based on how long you want to put your money to work. So some people say, hey, one year is good. That gives me exactly the liquidity I need, and that's going to give me a higher rate of return, which is 8% some people think three years is liquid. It's interesting to me, what people perceive as liquid, because anybody who's invested in a syndication knows sometimes that's five, seven and 10 years. So they view a three year investment at 10% Hey, that's liquid to me. I didn't have to lock it up for five, seven and 10 years. And then some people, 90 days is liquid. And so we have the liquidity fund seven, eight and 10% depending on which class you want to go in, 7% is 90 days, 8% is one year. 10% is three years. That's for accredited investors. We have our masternote program, which is for non accredited investors, that is 8% for two years, and 10% I think, for three years, and then we have Lincoln village, and that one is closing soon. I think we're at the final $1 million to raise. That is 12, 13, and 14% but that also includes tax benefits. The end, it is a five or probably seven year timeline, because it's a 48 unit apartment in Columbus, Ohio, if we refinance in three years, yay. Everybody wins. But I always set expectations it could be a longer timeline. And so those are the main opportunities that are available based on accredited, non accredited and your returns.

Keith Weinhold 40:20

Well, the yield on the 10 year T note is 4% but here, the yield on the one year private note is substantially higher. Well, Danny Lynn, do you have any last things to tell us before you let us know how we can learn more?

Dani-Lynn Robison 40:34

I think what's important is a trust. When I'm on the phone, I get three questions. Where do I start? Which path is right for me and who do I trust? And one of my biggest investors says Danny, I think number three question of Who do I trust is the most important one. So I think it's really important to get on the phone to ask questions, to ask, Hey, what didn't I ask that I should have asked? What should I know that I don't know? Because sometimes you don't know the right questions to ask, and so we have this graph of all the things you could be looking for in an investment that people don't even realize might be very important to them. So I think what is most important is just taking the first step of starting the conversation. Once you start the conversation, you start to learn, you start to get educated, you start to understand what your true goals really are, and then you can make an A confident decision, as opposed to what many of us do is, you know, sit on our hands for a little bit because we're just nervous. We're so nervous about losing money or we don't know who to trust, and we're so busy that a year passes by and we just didn't take action. So I just encourage people a 15 minute phone call might change the game for you and allow you to get started

Keith Weinhold 41:45

right indecision really is a decision in itself, a decision to not do anything and have some of your cash be atrophied to inflation. Tell the audience how they can learn more

Dani-Lynn Robison 41:58

They can text the word FAMILY to 66866 and that is going to connect you with our team, and we're going to reach out, hopefully, set up a call and get that conversation started.

Keith Weinhold 42:09

Oh. Danny Lynn, this is going to help a lot of people. Thanks so much for coming back onto the show.

Dani-Lynn Robison 42:13

Thank you, Keith,

Keith Weinhold 42:14

yeah, well, I think you know that I'm more of a borrower than I am lender, but I'm a lender in this case. So for liquid funds, this has been a reliable source for an 8% liquid return without any hassle. I mean, it's about as passive as it gets. Of course, when you store money in a bank. You're giving the bank a loan as well, even though you might not have thought about it that way. Well, if you're looking for something a little less liquid, like a three year investment duration, you are going to get a higher return than 8% here. There are good options here if you're accredited or not accredited, and you don't have to invest in one specific apartment project either, like Lincoln village that Danny Lynn mentioned, and over there at her company, like she said, yeah, those are the three questions you can ask. Where do I start? Which path is right for me, and who do I trust? And on the phone really part of that second question, which path is right for me can be to ask Danny Lynn's team about how to get this highly passive return in the most tax efficient way for you.

There's so much vital content coming up here on the show in the future. Next week, it's the first time we'll have a former NFL player on the show is we'll discuss success principles that you can use in business and life, highly motivational stuff coming there in future weeks. So much more economics and real estate investing. Content is coming, including I've got an analysis of online search results, and you'll see what amenities tenants are really searching for today when they look for rental housing. And of course, as the year gets closer to the end, next month, I am going to reveal GRE 's home price growth forecast for 2025 and just as importantly, I will follow up with last year's prediction too. We'll look back at it and then see how it really turned out for high yield returns on your savings. You don't have to settle for disappointing interest rates where you spin your wheels because you're barely beating inflation. Learn more. Set up a call. Just text FAMILY to 66866 I'm your host. Keith Weinhold, don't quit your Daydream

Speaker 2 44:45

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Keith Weinhold 45:13

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Direct download: GREepisode528_.mp3
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Mon, 11 November 2024

Keith discusses the current state of the US economy, noting that while it is considered strong by conventional measures, there are four major threats on the horizon that the country is not doing enough to address. He’s joined by our guest, macroeconomic expert, Richard Duncan to discuss these topics. Richard proposes a solution that could strengthen the US's competitive position against China.

Shifting from Capitalism to Creditism.

Also, hear about the risks facing the real estate and stock markets in the near-term, such as the historically high wealth-to-income ratio and the ongoing quantitative tightening by the Federal Reserve.

Learn more about Richard’s work through his video newsletter, Macro Watch. Use discount code GRE for 50% off at:

RichardDuncanEconomics.com

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Complete episode transcript:

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Keith Weinhold 0:01

Keith, welcome to GRE. I'm your host. Keith Weinhold, per conventional measures, today's us. Economy is strong, but there are four vicious threats on the horizon, and we're not doing enough about them. Our macroeconomist guests will discuss that with us today. How alarming is it, and what's the solution to our crises, this week on get rich education,

Speaker 1 0:27

since 2014 the powerful get rich education podcast has created more passive income for people than nearly any other show in the world. This show teaches you how to earn strong returns from passive real estate investing in the best markets without losing your time being a flipper or landlord. Show Host Keith Weinhold writes for both Forbes and Rich Dad advisors, who delivers a new show every week since 2014 there's been millions of listener downloads of 188 world nations. He has a list show guests and key top selling personal finance author Robert Kiyosaki, get rich education can be heard on every podcast platform, plus it has its own dedicated Apple and Android listener phone apps build wealth on the go with the get rich education podcast. Sign up now for the get rich education podcast, or visit get rich education.com

Corey Coates 1:12

You're listening to the show that has created more financial freedom than nearly any show in the world. This is get rich education.

Keith Weinhold 1:28

Welcome to GRE from Fort Wayne, Indiana to Fort Lee New Jersey and across 188 nations worldwide. I'm Keith Weinhold, and you are back inside get rich education. We've been here for you, every single week since 2014 coming off of an election last week, this spurs more macroeconomic thought, monetary and fiscal policy, and more than that. And you know, one thing that I'm always looking for are signs of inflation versus deflation, because we live in a long term inflationary world. Well, you wouldn't keep a million bucks under a mattress because it would only be worth 300k in a few decades. But in deflation, you would flip your strategy and actually be a saver. You might keep millions out of the mattress, because deflation would actually increase the purchasing power of every single one of your dollars. Now, I've got a pretty unpopular take for you here at some point, probably now you've got to give the Fed credit for a soft landing. And what does a soft landing mean? Exactly. It means bringing down inflation without putting the economy into a recession. Well, inflation is down to about 2% now, unemployment is still low, near 4% and GDP growth for last quarter came in at 2.8% okay, yes, I sure understand that those benefits are distributed unevenly, but at this point, how much more of a soft landing Do you really want? And by the way, this sure doesn't mean that I love the Federal Reserve. I mean, they get no credit from me for not jumping on inflation sooner, when it peaked two and a half years ago, or even before that point, well, those high consumer prices as a result of that are still with us, and that's a problem, and they got that part wrong. We're about to talk with our global macroeconomic expert, really. He is one of the foremost authorities in the entire world today. We're going to talk about four major catastrophes the US economic future faces. One of those four is our ballooning national debt and deficit. And to review that for you, first, the debt is our overall accumulation of debt over the years now at 36 trillion. And when it comes to these awful, dreadful debt and deficit issues, I will ask our guests the question, when is it game over? Where is that tipping point? What would need to happen and the deficit? Okay, that refers to the annual shortfall, the annual thing, that shortfall that our bloated government keeps coming up with at the end of every year, all right, so therefore revenue minus spending equals deficit. Another way to say that is income minus expenses equals a deficit when the expenses are greater than the income. Well, that figure is near $2 trillion we're spending 2 trillion more than we raise in revenue each year. And here's an example. I'll use real world numbers rounded off to the nearest trillion. So if the government's annual revenue is only 5 trillion and you have to subtract out spending, which is 7 trillion, that could. Gives us an annual deficit of 2 trillion, pretty simple stuff, and that more or less gets added onto our overall debt of 36 trillion. Another major problem is this growing competition from China. Yes, I know that people like to discuss their demographic problems, but still, their population is more than four times the US population, and you learn about what other advantages they have over us and what we direly need to do to catch up. In our guests opinion, these issues incur some rather detailed explanations. So I'm really going to let our guest expert takeover for a while today, this weekend, I will be in San Antonio, Texas. San Antonio is an uptrending real estate market because they are really a beneficiary in distribution with their proximity to Mexico in the near shoring movement that's taking place. And then I will be in Austin, Texas, for a few days, Austin is one of the few major US metros that have seen rents substantially decline recently. I'll bring you next week's show from Austin, where I might talk more about that. Then, from the 20th to the 24th of this month, I'll be in New Orleans at the famed New Orleans investment conference, where they're pulling out all the stops at the 50th anniversary of the event, and that is the longest running investment event in America and perhaps the world. I hope to meet some of you there in New Orleans, just like I do each time I'm at the event. Let's talk about the bigger picture economy that your real estate and investments float within next.

This week's guest is the author of four books analyzing the crises that brought the global economy to the brink of collapse in recent decades. One of the books forecast the 2008 global financial crisis with great accuracy. We're going to discuss future crises here today, before we're done, he has worked as an equities and Investment Analyst, and then he went on to hold some rather esteemed roles at the World Bank in DC and as a consultant to the IMF in Asia. He joins us from Thailand today. He now publishes a video newsletter called macro watch, and long time listeners know that today's guest was also this show's very first guest that was back on GRE podcast episode seven, only 10 years ago now, in November 2014, and he's really become quite the friend of the show, and we've looked out for each other ever since. It's terrific to have back global macro economist Richard Duncan

Richard Duncan 7:46

Keith, hey, thank you for having me back. It's great to speak with you again.

Keith Weinhold 7:50

Oh, it's so good to have you here an entire decade of our lives. And as times change, economies are surely dynamic, and you're so good at spotlighting crises and explaining them in a way to people that they can understand. So Richard, why don't you talk to us now about risks facing the nation? Yes, I'm talking about the United States.

Richard Duncan 8:15

A lot of podcasts focus on all the problems the United States is facing, and it is certainly true that the United States is facing very serious risk. So I'd like to start off this conversation telling you what I think the greatest risk facing our country are. There are four main things I'd like to hit on. The first is something you mentioned to me before in our exchange of emails, is that the US government does have a very high level of government debt relative to GDP, and the budget deficits are large. So that's problem number one. Problem number two, in my opinion, looking at this from where I live in Asia, is that the United States is at risk of being conquered by China in the not too distant future. Risk Number Two. Risk Number three, we have very serious domestic political divisions within the United States. Risk Number four is that our post capitalist economic system, which I call creditism, must have credit growth to survive. If credit contracts, then our economy will spiral into a Great Depression that will be probably worse than the one of the 1930s so those are the big four problems that we have, and it doesn't do anyone any good just to talk about our country's problems if you don't offer a solution to them. So in my opinion, all of these problems can be overcome by accelerating economic growth in the United States, while all of these problems would be made very much worse by anything that causes us economic growth to slow down. The way to make the US economy grow much faster is to have the US Government finance a very, very large investment in the industries and technologies of the future over the next 10 years, starting immediately. The alternative austerity would cause the economy to spiral down into deflation. We'd like your listeners to think of austerity when they hear the word austerity. I'd like them to think of the word death. It's austerity is equal to death. Yeah, the US doesn't have to be a declining power. The first American Century doesn't have to be the last. It can be the first of many. The solution for driving the US economy to grow much more rapidly and solving all four of the problems that I mentioned above is a US sovereign wealth fund. Thank heavens. Both parties now support the establishment of a US sovereign wealth fund. On September 5, former President Trump came out in support of establishing a US sovereign wealth fund, and on the following day, the Biden administration said, then working on this for months and had a plan that they were developing. So this is fantastic news for the United States. It offers great hope for solving all of our greatest problems. And I'd like to spend, you know, a few minutes explaining to your listeners what a US sovereign wealth fund is, yes, urgently necessary, and why both parties have now come to understand why this is important to establish.

Keith Weinhold 11:27

Yeah, please tell us why you think the US sovereign wealth fund is so urgently needed, and what it is because for even longer than the 10 years since you were first here, for about 15 years now, you have championed and promoted this US sovereign wealth fund. You discussed it on CNBC Squawk Box and all over the place. Last year, you presented about it in a speech in DC to 15 members of the House, Ways and Means Committee. So tell us about the US sovereign wealth fund and why you think it's urgently needed.

Richard Duncan 11:56

Let's begin with, what is a sovereign wealth fund? Well, effectively, a sovereign wealth fund is where a country invest in individual companies or even in startups. There are sovereign wealth funds all around the world. Norway has the largest, Singapore has two very effective ones called gdic and Temasek, which had been enormously profitable and successful, and it made the people in Singapore much richer. So a sovereign wealth fund in the United States would be an investment bond financed by the United States government with the US. This investment fund would take stakes in existing companies and also in startup companies, hopefully on a very large scale. Now, some people have asked, Why is this framework necessary? Why do we need a sovereign wealth fund to do that when the government is already making investments in the military, for instance, and funding some R and D research? Well, the difference between what the government is doing now and a sovereign wealth fund is with a sovereign wealth fund, the government would actually keep equity stakes in these companies that they invest in, meaning that when these companies they invest in become enormously profitable, the profits would be owned by every American. The Americans would have the equity stakes in all of the investments that this sovereign wealth fund makes. And it would be a situation where the government provides the financing, but the private sector manages the companies. The government just finances these companies in new industries and new technologies, and the government has the ability to invest on a very much larger scale than the private sector does. For example, The United States has a lot of great companies in the private sector that have accomplished really, truly great things in recent years and long past as well. But these private sector companies cannot invest on the same scale that the Chinese government can. The Chinese government is investing on a much larger scale than any of the American companies could ever dream to invest on. And that's explains why China is overtaking us now technologically, and if they continue to invest at a rapid rate that they're doing currently, then before long, there are going to be far ahead of us technologically and therefore economically, and more worryingly, militarily, the US government has the ability to invest truly on a multi trillion dollar scale over the next decade in new industries and technologies, things like artificial intelligence, quantum computing, nanotech, biotech, genetic engineering and developing energy sources like fusion, and it has the ability to do this on such a large scale that it would be certain to succeed. And once these companies start creating cancer vaccines or fusion, for instance, they would be enormously profitable, and they could be listed on. NASDAQ at multi trillion dollar valuations, and the American public would own equity stakes in these companies, and would then would directly reap the rewards of these profits that these companies would generate. That is what a sovereign wealth fund is, why it's desperately needed, is, well, first of all, we should do it, because we can easily afford to do it. And the results, the breakthroughs, the technological breakthroughs and medical miracles that these sorts of companies would produce, would we really have the shot of curing all the diseases and radically extending life expectancy, developing sources of limitless energy that would bring down the cost of energy radically. Just across the board, it would induce a technological revolution that would turbo charge us economic growth, create UNDRIP wealth, and at the same time, shore up US national security in the face of this growing threat from China. So for all of those reasons, it is urgently necessary. In my opinion.

Keith Weinhold 16:04

both Norway and Singapore have had similar models to this. US sovereign wealth fund, and we certainly think of those two nations as prosperous places, tell me more about why it's a success so the government finances it does that incentivize companies to therefore take more risk?

Richard Duncan 16:25

It allows them to invest more. It allows them to invest on a much larger scale than that. Could if they have to rely on their own funding sources. Rather than investing millions of dollars, they could invest billions of dollars or 10s of billions of dollars. For instance, at the moment, the National Cancer Institute in the United States, this annual budget is $6 billion a year. $6 billion a year is not curing cancer. If we look back a few years ago, the Fed was creating $120 billion a month through quantitative easing per month. So with just 5% of one month of QE, you could double the National Cancer Institute's budget. Now that's not what this sovereign wealth fund would do. That just illustrates the scale. How much greater the scale would be that the government could invest on relative to what is currently being invested at the moment by the government and by the private sector combined.

Keith Weinhold 17:28

Do any critics ever ask about Wait? Is this too much government intervention into the free market? Is this a move away from capitalism? What do you say to those sort of critics?

Richard Duncan 17:38

I say to them that capitalism died in World War One. It certainly didn't survive the 20th century. Now the government. In the 19th century, we had capitalism. The government had very little involvement in the economy then and gold was money. But now gold is no longer money. The Fed creates some money. Government spending is something like nearly $7 trillion out of a GDP. That is around just not quite $30 trillion yet. So the government has been directing the economy going back at least since World War Two. This hasn't been capitalism for a very long time. Under capitalism, the private sector made investments, and some businessmen would make profits from their investments, and they would save that profit as capital and reinvest that capital. That's how capitalism grew. That's why they called it capitalism. It was based on capital accumulation and investment. But that's not how our economic system has worked for decades. Our system now is not driven by investment and saving by the private sector. It's driven by credit creation and consumption and more credit creation and more consumption and our economies has now been transformed from capitalism. It has evolved into creditism, with the government playing the directing role. So total credit in the United States, just last quarter blew through $100 trillion for the first time. By what I mean by total credit is the same thing as total debt. Total credit is equal to total debt. So this is all the debt of all sectors of the economy, the government sector, the household sector, the corporate sector, the financial sector, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac all the sectors of the economy, it just went through $100 trillion and Breda ism has created very rapid growth, especially all around the world, not only in the United States, because it has allowed the US economy to grow so rapidly and to import so much from other countries that this is why The Asian miracle occurred. I've lived through the Asian miracle because the US has been running massively large trade deficits since the early 1980s and all these countries in Asia have been running massively large trade surpluses, and all this spending that the Americans have been doing has been fueled by this rapidly. Radically expansion of credit. Total credit first went through $1 trillion in 1964 now it's $100,000,000,000,000. 60 years later. Now our system is not capitalism. The government is very involved. Anytime there's any problem with the economy, the government steps in. In 2008 the government prevented a new Great Depression when the private sector the households defaulted on their debts and caused all the banks to fail, and Freddie Mac did fail and had to be taken over by the government. So at that time, we narrowly avoided a Great Depression, because the government increased its budget deficits by more than a trillion dollars a year for four years in a row, and the Fed expanded. The Fed created three and a half trillion dollars between the end of 2007 and 2014, expanding its balance sheet by about five times. So that's not capitalism. We don't have capitalism. So people who are worried about us abandoning capitalism. They're behind the times that happened a long time ago. That shouldn't be a concern. They should be aware now that we are competing against players who don't play by the capitalist rules of little government intervention in the markets we're now competing against China, and China is one giant sovereign wealth fund intent on dominating the world by investing very aggressively in new industries and technologies. In the year 2000 the United States invested, I think, 10 times as much in research and development as China did. But now China is actually investing more in research and development and the US is and that explains why China is ahead in so many areas of technology. They had 5g years before we did. They are the leaders in electric vehicles and batteries. We have to put up 100% tariffs to keep out electric vehicles from China because they're so much better than our electric vehicles. They dominate solar panels. And are worse, they have hypersonic missiles and we don't, and I'm sure they have other military advantages that we don't, because they invest much more aggressively in new industries and technologies than our government does. And if we don't rectify this quickly, then we are soon going to be overtaken by China militarily, and our national security is at risk, much more than most Americans understand. But this realization has slowly grown on policymakers in Washington, and now both parties are worried about this, and this is why we have this growing fear of China, and why we have proposals to limit technology transfers to China, and this is why we've done things like the chips and science act, where the government has agreed to finance a $280 billion investment in new industries and technologies a couple of years ago, with 50 billion of that going into setting up manufacturing facilities within the in the US to create semiconductors, rather than relying solely on Taiwan to obtain all of our semiconductors, because China could take Taiwan at any moment, and then then he would end up with all the semiconductor chips that go into powering artificial intelligence. And whoever develops Artificial General Intelligence first is going to rule the world, and therefore it had better be the United States rather than China, because we don't want to live in a world dominated by China, believe me.

Keith Weinhold 23:26

Well, a lot of macro voices agree with you. About two months ago, we had the president of the Mises Institute here, and the way he characterized things are in the United States. 100 years ago, we had islands of socialism in a sea of capitalism, and today we merely have islands of capitalism in a sea of socialism. Do you see the US sovereign wealth fund being able to solve all four of the United States big problems that you outlined, debt and deficit conquering by China, political division and creditism. Can it solve all four of those?

Richard Duncan 24:04

Yes, it can. So as you know, Keith, a couple of years ago, I published my fourth book. It was called the money revolution. Yeah? How to find the book? Sure, yeah. How to finance the next American century. It was a subtitle. Now I argue that it would be very easy for the US to invest on a multi trillion dollar scale, new industries and new technologies over the next decade, and if we do that through a sovereign wealth fund, then would generate so much growth and be so profitable that instead of causing the government debt to increase, it would actually make the economy so much larger and generate so many more tax revenues, and the government would make so many profits from these companies that it has equity stakes in that it would reduce the government debt in absolute terms, and radically reduce the government debt relative to GDP, which would grow far faster than it has been growing in recent decades. This problem, number one, solved the high level of government debt. A high level of debt to GDP just make the GDP grow a lot faster, and the ratio of debt to GDP will go down. Problem number two is the US is at risk of being conquered by China. We can out invest China. We can invest more than China can afford to invest. We still have the best universities and the best entrepreneurs and scientists. So if we invest on a large enough scale, we will win, and China will not conquer us. Third, if the economy is growing at 7% a year instead of 1% a year, that is going to alleviate a lot of the domestic tensions that exist currently, much of the reason there's the origins of this domestic political divide that we're now suffering from in the US is because such a large part of the population has been left behind when all the factories moved overseas, countries like China and Vietnam, we de industrialized, and the people who Used to have good factory jobs, good, unionized, high paying factory jobs. All those people were left out in the cold, and they're not happy about it. And so if our economy were growing much more rapidly, these people would have much better jobs and much higher salaries, and they would be much happier than they are at the moment. And the final one was our post capitalist system of creditism requires credit growth to survive. So if the government is financing these investments on a multi trillion dollar scale, it's going to make credit expand, and that's going to keep the economy expanding. So yes, it would solve all four of those problems.

Keith Weinhold 26:35

One of those four problems is the debt and the deficit. I want to dive into that more with Richard as it becomes more and more problematic in the United States, and just how far we can kick this can down the road. You're listening to get rich education. We're talking with macro economist Richard Duncan. More, we come back. I'm your host. Keith Weinhold.

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Jim Rickards 28:40

this is Author Jim Rickards. Listen to get rich education with Keith Weinhold, and don't quit your Daydream.

Keith Weinhold 28:55

Welcome back to get rich education. We are going big this week, talking about the global economy, although mostly centered on the United States, with macroeconomist Richard Duncan. You can learn more about him at RichardDuncaneconomics.com and Richard I want to talk about the debt in the deficit. The debt is the United States overall debt as it accumulates year after year, and the deficit is just the annual thing, and it's so interesting and concerning. When I look at this, when you look at the line items in the United States government's annual spending, we now see that interest payments are taking the second largest chunk, only to Social Security. Social Security's number one interest is the second biggest expense, even more than defense spending and on Medicare. So I just wonder, as I see the interest payments going up and up and up and projected to be our greatest expense every year. You know, one thing I think about Richard is when our interest payments alone exceed our. Revenue somewhere down the road, is that when it's game over, or is that when we're on the way to game over? So can you talk to us about really, where the concern crops up with the deficit, like I talked about, and with the debt that's now at about $36 trillion

Richard Duncan 30:17

deficit and debt is a real problem. It was the first problem that I mentioned when we kicked off the conversation. There are two components of that. One is the fact that government debt has been increasing very rapidly. At the end of 2007 total government debt was around $9 trillion by 2014 it had doubled to $18 trillion because the government had to respond to the collapse of the private sector in 2008 and prevent us from having a great depression at that time, and then after 2014 it has doubled again, from 18 trillion to $36 trillion now, much of that was due to the need for the government to keep us from having another Great Depression during COVID When government stimulus amounted to about $5 trillion and the Fed created a similar amount over just a two year period. So now we have a much higher level of government debt. But the second component of that is that interest rates are very much higher than they used to be. The federal funds rate went up from 0% a few years back to a high of five and a quarter, actually a range between five and a quarter and five and a half. And recently, the Fed cut the federal funds rate by 50 basis points. But you can still say it is 4.9% let's call it 4.9% so interest rates are far higher than they used to be, but they don't have to remain high. The reason interest rates went up is because the Fed increased the federal funds rate. And the reason the Fed increased the federal funds rate is because we had high rates of inflation. Inflation peaked at 9% or so in 2022 but most recently, the CPI has come back down to 2.4% and the Fed's favorite measure of inflation, that PCE Price Index, has come down to 2.2% and that means that the federal funds rate, which is 4.9% is more than twice as high as the inflation rate is. That shows us that we have very tight monetary policy, and the Fed should be able to reduce interest rates very rapidly going forward. They've told us in their dot plot projections that they expect that interest rates will end this year the federal funds rate at 4.4% and then in next year, at 3.4% and 2026 at 2.9% so that reduction in interest rates will bring down the cost of the total interest expense that you mentioned as being so high currently, the risk, however, is that we get a rebound in inflation. We're inflation to surge again, then interest rates won't come down. In fact, they could go higher. So all of my career, more or less, has been spent in Asia. And the main theme that is run through the global economy, the development of the global economy over the last three and a half decades has been globalization, globalization in the form of us running very large trade deficits with other countries. Literally, the US current account deficit since the early 1980s has been $15 trillion meaning countries with the trade surpluses have had a $15 trillion trade surplus, and that's why they've all been transformed economically as a result of their trade surplus with the US, but what the US got out of this was the ability to buy things made with very low cost labor, and that was extremely disinflationary, that drove down the inflation rate in the US, and that allowed interest rates in the US to come down to very low levels that we've seen during most of this century, Up until the time COVID started. The real danger is now, if we do impose very high trade tariffs on China and our other trading partners, then that will cause a very serious spike in inflation. And it won't just be one off, because, of course, when the tariffs are put in place, that will immediately cause everything to be that much more expensive. The US companies importing goods from abroad would have to pay that tariff, then those US companies would pass those higher expenses on to the consumers, so we'd get an immediate spike in inflation. But that would also mean that the companies abroad it wouldn't be so profitable for them to have their manufacturing facilities abroad, they would try to bring those back home. And given that the unemployment rate in the US is so low already, only 4.1% there's not enough labor to allow these manufacturing facilities to come back to the US and start producing goods in the US. So that would cause an upward spiral. In wages and the wage push inflation spiral of the type that we had in the late 1960s and early 1970s so that is a In other words, tariffs would put an end to globalization, and that would cause a such a severe spike in inflation and interest rates, it would essentially be the death nail for creditism, which requires credit growth to survive. The end of globalization would mean this end of this 30 year global economic boom that the world has enjoyed, and therefore it is a very severe threat, and it would push up the interest expense of the US government, which you let off with, instead of lower interest rates, bringing down the interest expense the government has to pay every year, we would have instead higher interest rates, which would make the amount that the government has to pay on its interest even higher than it is at the moment, and make the budget deficit even larger than it is at the moment, and Make the government debt grow even faster than it's growing at the moment. So let's hope that doesn't happen. Instead, the better approach is to invest, to have the government finance large scale investments in new industries and technologies make the economy grow much more rapidly and we can grow our way out of this debt problem that we're currently in,

Keith Weinhold 36:21

yes more inflation, whether that comes from higher tarrifs or any other sources, will lead to higher interest rates to counteract that higher inflation, which will Yes, pump up the deficit in the debt that much more. And you know, one thing that I like about Richard is, you know, a lot of people complain about things, or say, what are we going to do? Or Things look bad, and Richard is saying some of that, but he offers a way forward with the US sovereign wealth fund, like he talked about before, investing our way out of it. So Richard, if we don't invest in this debt and deficit situation gets worse. It could be a hard question to answer, but I'd like your best guess at how far can we kick the can down the road? When is it game over? How big do our interest payments on the debt and deficit have to get?

Richard Duncan 37:10

the game is never over. No matter how bad things become, humanity will survive and carry on. So even in the Great Depression, people made it through, even through World War Two that resulted, largely as a result of the Great Depression. A lot of people died. 60 million people died, but the game didn't end. So regardless of how bad the economic system system were to become, humanity will survive and there will be a solution. Now, a lot of people put forward that, the idea that they point out that we have this high level of government debt, and their solution is to reduce government spending. The government spends something like $6.8 trillion last year. That was the amount the government spent. The budget deficit last year was 1.8 trillion so in order to eliminate the budget deficit, the government would have to spend $1.8 trillion less. In other words, it would have to cut its spending by 27% but the government cut its spending by 27% they're going to happen. The economy would immediately spiral into a depression. So even that reduction in spending wouldn't balance the budget, because the government revenues would collapse, and they would have even fewer tax revenues, so the deficit would still be there, the economy would collapse, and the unemployment rate would be 20 plus percent, and would just fall further behind China and be at greater risk from a national security perspective, and much more miserable As a society overall. That's why it's always say people should consider think of the words austerity and death at the same time, because austerity would bring about the collapse of our economic system and the Great Depression unless your civilization would survive it. trying to answer your question more directly, how high could this go? Well, governments don't default on their debt when push comes to shove. If the government's having a hard time paying interest on its debt, the Fed will just print more money. And in a case where between 2008 and 2014 when the Fed created three and a half trillion dollars, they printed a lot of money at that short space of time, and they got away with it without having high rates of inflation. The highest rate of inflation we had during that period was 3.8% in 2011 and by the early months of 2015 we had deflation again for a few months. Prices actually fell negative CPI for a few months in 2015 so if we have a global economy, as we do at the moment, full of we have nearly 8 billion people, I would guess 2 billion of them at least live on less than $5 a day. So the US could get away with having a lot of paper money printing without having higher, very high rates of inflation and the government could finance itself that way for quite a long time. Of course, if we have a closed domestic economy brought about by extremely high tariff barriers, then we would end up with hyperinflation in the United States. But even with hyperinflation, it would be very painful for people who have all their cash in the bank or under their mattress, but people with assets, those asset prices would appreciate more or less in line with the inflation, and it would erode the government debt relative to the size of the economy, because the GDP would grow in nominal terms very rapidly because of the hyperinflation, and the debt, which is not inflation adjusted, would be evaporated away by the inflation.

Keith Weinhold 40:43

right? that's why here at GRE we are all invested and aimed toward prudent use of leverage with assets like real estate and we sure have been the beneficiaries of that wave of inflation that followed COVID there. Richard, well, we're talking about the debt and the deficit somewhat, which, interestingly, has actually doubled since the first time you were here on the show. When you were here, 10 years ago, it was at 18 trillion, and today it's at 36 trillion. We talked about, how far can you kick the can down the road back then? Well, here we are, 10 years later, and it's doubled. Talk to us. You know, you talked previously about the greatest risk to the United States economy. Tell us now, as we are investors here on this show, about the greatest risk to the real estate and stock market, I would just say within the next year. What are some of those risks to those particular markets?

Richard Duncan 41:38

We've already discussed the main risk that high tariffs would potentially cause a new spike of inflation and force the Fed to hike interest rates rather than cutting interest rates. But there are some other risk as well. One is the fact that we already have a very high level of wealth relative to income. Let me back up a second. You were talking about debt doubling since we first spoke 10 years ago. Here's another statistic for you. Just in the last four and a half years, the total wealth of the Americans, all of their assets minus all of their liabilities. In other words, household sector net worth. Since the end of 2019 it has increased by $47 trillion in four and a half years. That's about a 40% increase. Now, $47 trillion is enough to pay off the entire US government tip, which we've been worrying about with $11 trillion left over. So not everything is as bleak as it sounds on the surface. We've had a huge explosion of wealth in the last four and a half years that's been driven by property and also by stocks. The problem now is, is that the level of income the asset prices, are very inflated relative to their historic norms. And one of the ratios that I always keep an eye on is called the wealth to income ratio. It takes the household sector net worth. In other words, the wealth that we were just discussing, which, by the way, is now $164 trillion of wealth owned by the Americans. The wealth divided by income, disposable personal income, this wealth to income ratio is now an extraordinarily high level. The ratio is 785% whereas the average of that ratio going back to 1950 has been 550% the previous two peaks were in the year 2000 when it hit 620 during the NASDAQ bubble, and then that bubble popped, and the stock market crashed, and we had a recession, and it went back to 550 and then it surged to a new peak of 680 during the property bubble. And then that bubble popped, and we almost went into a depression, and that a lot of wealth was destroyed. We had a severe recession. The government had to bail us out from and that ratio went back to 550 again. Now it is just off the charts relative to its previous peaks, because people 680 now it's 785 so people used to suggest that higher asset prices were justified because interest rates were near 0% but even after the Fed hiked interest rates from near 0% to about 5% The asset prices have stayed inflated. That does suggest that asset prices are very inflated and therefore very vulnerable to any sort of shock that could occur, whether geopolitical or economic or domestic political problems. So that's a concern. Another concern is quantitative tightening is still occurring. Quantitative tightening is the opposite of quantitative easing. When, with quantitative easing, the Fed creates money and pumps it into the financial markets, and that tends to make asset prices go up, and it also tends to make interest rates on government debt stay low, because if it pushes up bond prices, it pushes down. Bond yields. Well, now the opposite is occurring. Over the last two years, the Fed has destroyed roughly $2 trillion it created $5 trillion from the end of 2019 till about 2022 during the COVID pandemic, and the policy response to that, the Fed created $5 trillion but now it's destroyed 2 trillion of that five that it created, and is still destroying dollars at the rate of about $60 billion a month, or $700 billion a year. And as it does, as it destroys dollars, it takes dollars out of the financial system, which all other things being the same, tends to make financial conditions tighter, putting upward pressure on bond yields and downward pressure on asset prices. So as this continues, this is a concern, because reduce the liquidity in the system by another $700 billion if it continues for another year, having said that there is still an enormous amount of excess liquidity in the system as a result of all of the money that the Fed has created, going back to 2008 I estimate that the excess liquidity is somewhere around three and a half trillion dollars. If you look at bank reserves and the reverse repos at the Fed is about three and a half trillion dollars of excess liquidity, and the Fed actually has to pay interest to the banks on their bank reserves to hold interest rates up. That's how the Fed controls the federal funds rate now. It pays the banks roughly right now, 4.8% interest on all of the banks bank reserves, and so the banks will not lend money to anyone at less than 4.8% interest, because the Fed will pay them 4.8% interest. Why would they lend to anyone else for less if it suddenly stopped paying interest on these bank reserves, these banks would look around and where would they invest their three and a half trillion dollars in? No one's going to pay them 4.8% or even 3.8% or 2.8% interest rates would plunge because of all the excess liquidity that exists. So this excess liquidity has been a thing that's been driving the economy since COVID started, and it's why we've managed to avoid recession, which everyone is expected to arrive any moment now for the last two and a half years. So there are concerns, but there are also, as always, other reasons for optimism.

Keith Weinhold 47:24

Well, that wealth to income ratio that Richard talked about, that's a calculation that you yourself can do. One's net worth is almost eight times their income now, which is at a historic high, which is one concerning point that Richard brought up. Well, Richard, I want you to tell us about your terrific video newsletter, macro watch unless you have any other last thoughts first.

Richard Duncan 47:51

well, just one last word on the US sovereign wealth fund. Thank you very much for giving me a chance to discuss that and to explain why both Democrats and Republicans are now in favor of establishing a US sovereign wealth fund, one of the few issues that has bipartisan support. And this must come as a surprise to many of your listeners and most Americans, in fact, why have both parties agreed on really setting up a US sovereign wealth fund? So I'm glad I've had a chance to explain it and why it's so urgently necessary. I'd just like to emphasize the extraordinary benefits that this delivers to the American people, both individually and at a national level, individually, in terms of medical breakthroughs and better health and much more rapid economic growth for the economy, so much more wealth and much more national security as well. So I hope the Americans will get on board with this idea and give it their full support, because it's exactly what our country needs to solve all the four issues, the major issues that I laid out at the beginning of this conversation. But with that said, if your listeners would like to learn more about my work, Macrowatch. Microwatch is a video newsletter. Every couple of weeks, I upload a new video discussing something important happening in the global economy and how that's likely to affect the stock market, property, currencies and commodities. They can find macro watch on my website, which is RichardDuncanEconomics.com that's RichardDuncanEconomics.com Macro Watch has been going on now for 11 years, they'll find more than 100 hours of videos in the microwatch archives. They can begin watching immediately, and they'll receive a new video every couple of weeks. And I'd like to offer your listeners a subscription discount. If they go to Richard Duncan economics.com and hit the subscribe button, they'll be prompted to put in a discount coupon code, if they put it in G, R, E, they can subscribe to macro watch at a 50% discount. That's great. That's GRE so I hope they'll check that out, and at the very least, they can sign up there for my free blog and follow my work that way.

Keith Weinhold 49:56

And I have benefited from consuming macro watch content myself over the years, allowing me to sort of stretch my thought process and go macro, which we don't always do as real estate investors. Oh, Richard, it's been valuable as always, and you really offered a solution, a way forward here, something that's really refreshing. It's been great as always, having you back on the show.

Richard Duncan 50:18

Yeah. Thank you very much. I look forward to the next time

Keith Weinhold 50:21

me too. when it comes to the term capitalism, if that's truly a system that we're no longer in, you know, it seems to get replaced with the word meritocracy, and that is a word that I like, meritocracy, where producers get rewards for being productive, but even that is under attack, and the government just always seems to be stepping in with a safety net. Seemingly everywhere you look, it won't let banks fail. We saw them jump in early last year with Silicon Valley Bank and other bank failures, the government won't let homeowners fail either. I mean, you don't have to think back very far with mortgage loan forbearance in the COVID era, on issues of the debt and deficit. Even Fed Chair Jerome Powell himself has called it unsustainable. That's the word that he used. Like Richard said today, we won't default. We'll just print more. So when it comes to the inflation versus deflation tug of war, the future keeps looking inflationary, but at what rate of inflation? That's what I don't know, and no one really knows. If you like Richard Duncan's content, and you sort of wished he and I's conversation would go on. Well, he is a regular guest here, so I expect him back. But if you're telling yourself, I want more of his content and I want to make it visual at the same time to help really bring this to life, well, visit RichardDuncanEconomics.com hit the subscribe button and get 50% off. That's five zero, 50% off with the discount code. GRE. Happy Veterans Day. Until next week, I'm your host, Keith Weinhold, don't quit your Daydream.

Speaker 2 52:17

Keith Weinhold 52:46

The preceding program was brought to you by your home for wealth, building, getricheducation.com

Direct download: GREepisode527_.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 4:00am EST

Mon, 4 November 2024

Keith discusses the inefficiency of compound interest in wealth building, advocating for compound leverage through real estate investments. He illustrates how a $100,000 investment in a $500,000 property at a 6% annual return can yield much higher returns due to leverage (see the math below).

He also explains how mortgage rates are influenced by long-term bond yields and discusses the benefits of real estate over stocks.

A coaching call with GRE Investment Coach Naresh highlights the process of investing in real estate, including financing considerations and the role of a coach in guiding investors.

Here’s the math on a 5:1 leveraged RE return at a 6% appreciation rate:

Year One: $500,000 x 1.06 = $530,000. Subtract $400K debt = $130,000 equity

Year Two: $530,000 x 1.06 = $561,800. Subtract $400K debt = $161,800 equity

Year Three: $561,800 x 1.06 = $595,508. Subtract $400K debt = $195,508 equity.

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525: Immigration Surge Tightens Housing Demand, How to Avoid Paying State Income Tax

Complete episode transcript:

Automatically Transcribed With Otter.ai

Keith Weinhold 0:00

Keith, welcome to GRE I'm your host. Keith Weinhold, make America rich again in play numbers. You'll get a fresh take today on how compound interest does not build wealth and compound leverage does. Then you'll learn about how bond market moves affect mortgage rates. Finally, you get to listening to a call between one of our investment coaches and a GRE follower today on Get Rich Education.

Speaker 1 0:33

Since 2014 the powerful get rich education podcast has created more passive income for people than nearly any other show in the world. This show teaches you how to earn strong returns from passive real estate investing in the best markets without losing your time being a flipper or landlord. Show Host Keith Weinhold writes for both Forbes and Rich Dad advisors, and delivers a new show every week since 2014 there's been millions of listener downloads of 188 world nations. He has a list show guests and key top selling personal finance author Robert Kiyosaki, get rich education can be heard on every podcast platform, plus it has its own dedicated Apple and Android listener phone apps build wealth on the go with the get rich education podcast. Sign up now for the get rich education podcast or visit get rich education.com

Corey Coates 1:19

You're listening to the show that has created more financial freedom than nearly any show in the world. This is get rich education.

Keith Weinhold 1:35

Welcome to GRE from Altoona, Pennsylvania to Saskatoon, Saskatchewan, and across 188 nations worldwide. I'm Keith Weinhold, and this is get rich education, the voice of real estate investing Since 2014 you're going to hear some things that you've never heard before today, and some listeners tell us that GRE is unlike any real estate information they've ever heard. And with what I want to tell you today, well, again, it's information that I've never heard anywhere else, either. So what I endeavor to regularly do for you here on this show is to tell you what I wish I had known sooner make America rich again, nope, that is not my presidential campaign platform for my run in the year 2032, or anything like that. It is this, don't get your money to work for you. In fact, if you want real wealth, don't work for money or get your money to work for you. Don't make either of those things the focus anyway, avoid growing your money through compound interest, because that's not the formula either. Now you and I have covered that ground before, if you're new here, and that material makes you say what you might have thought things like that were the holy grail of wealth building, nope, and today, for the first time on the show, in over 500 episodes, I'm gonna put some real numbers to that to show you exactly what I mean. Let me explain to you how to invest to truly win in a way that you've never seen in your life. You're not gonna improve only your life, but generationally, your entire family's life. At your job, you are like a dock worker. You're trying to pull your boat up to the dock so that you can then make a short, easy hop onto the boat and get away. And you'll learn how I did that and how I would begin investing today if I could start all over again. Now, after I had graduated college and had a job, I used to think, Well, yeah, I'll invest through a 401K in mutual funds, because it's easy and it's just deducted right from my paycheck. Well, when you do the easy thing in life, there's usually not much reward. And back then, I thought, Well, why would I invest in real estate anyway? I mean, a stock and mutual fund return on investment is about 10% over time. Real Estate is more like five or 6% plus real estate has all these maintenance hassles, and in the stock market, your 10% return enjoys compound interest. I don't really know how that works over on the real estate side, all right. Well, let's look at some numbers with how this would all work anyway. Here we go with $100,000 invested in stocks at 10% after year one, it's grown to $110,000 in year two, you don't just have 120k you've got more, because the 10% compounds on the 110 10k so now in year two, you've got $121,000 and I bet that you don't see any problem in this yet, right? Hey, things are going great. And after year three, you're up to $133,100 All right, so there we are. You begin with 100k and after three years, you've got then $33,100 in profit, your gain, on top of your 100k All right, that's what compound interest does. Well, let's take a closer look at that. $33,100 first, okay, I could attack it a slew of reasonable ways, if I wanted to, we could subtract out the constant drags on that of inflation, emotion, taxes, fees and volatility. But let's just take one volatility. We smoothed out our 10% return saying that you achieved it every year in that example there, we know that does not happen in the real world. Stocks are volatile, and the more volatile the return, the lower the return. Because instead, if you were up 20% one year and then down 20% the next year, which stocks are known to do you're not even you're down your 100k would instead go up to 120k in year one and down to 96k in year two, a loss, like I've told you before, that right there is the difference between what's called the compounded annual growth rate and the average annual return. But we'll just leave stocks number right there. We'll say that despite all five drags, volatility, of which is just one, the compound interest still somehow gave you this $33,100 gain. That number is about to look really disappointing, and this is about to get really interesting.

Let's compare that to real estate, and we'll say that despite that, it only returns, say, 6% per year here. Well, how do most people buy real estate? They do it with other people's money. OPM, remember earlier that I talked to you about how you don't create wealth from getting only your money to work for you, like you did in the stock example. Yeah, here's how you ethically use other people's money to buy real estate. When you invest 100k in a rental property. That's your 20% down. You get to borrow 80% from the bank, 400k so now you control a $500,000 property. And here's the thing, its entire value appreciates a 6% all 500k not only your 100k invested, yes, so you're now about to get the return on both your 100k and all of the bank's money. 400k that you get to leverage returns from both are about to go to you. Oh, yes, let's run these numbers, instead of compound interest, you're about to get compound leverage, using those borrowed funds to amplify your own return. So with your 100k invested on a 500k property at 6% after year one, you've got 130k after year two, $161,800 and after year three, $195,508 why? Because, again, your 6% return was accumulating on the 500k property. All right, so after year three, with this $195,508 you're gonna subtract out your 100k down payment, and your gain is $95,508 All right, that is compared to your compound interest based stock and mutual fund return of just $33,100 if you'd like to see the math for that leverage. Return that is in the show notes. Look for it there. See, by employing other people's money, it's like when you were a kid and in the evening, your body cast a shadow five times taller than you actually were. That's how leverage allows you to magnify returns and appear to be a bigger, taller investor than you actually are. Yes, your 20% down payment on real estate gave you five to one leverage amplifying your returns. If you listen to the show for a while, you understand that, but you never saw that numeric dollar per dollar comparison like we just did. So after three years, how about 33k profit on stocks and 95k on real estate? Real estate returns almost three times as much. But in reality, it's probably more than a 3x win for real estate because you're 95 Gain over three years in real estate, equity is actually going to be higher, because your tenant is also paying down your principal balance on your 400k loan every single month for 36 months in this three year example, if your property is vacant, 10% of the time they paid it down for you 33 out of 36 months, and as we know, at the same time, inflation pays down your loan even faster than the tenant does. Real Estate is also more tax advantaged than your stock gain, because you never have to pay capital gains tax on your 95k profit with a 1031 tax deferred exchange. And on the downside for real estate, upon owning the property, you will need to pay closing costs of maybe four to 5% of the purchase price. All right now, in this 95k gain for real estate versus 33k gain for stocks, I did some rounding there. Yes, even if your stock return was in a 401 K type fund, well, you would still have to either pay the tax now with a Roth or later with a traditional retirement plan. So you're still paying the tax. The higher real estate return is also more likely because real estate is less volatile than stocks, and I've got more vitally important things to tell you about how you just grew wealth about three times faster with leverage than with compound interest. And yes, this is exactly the kind of stuff I wish I knew when I had just started out. Now if you think you don't have the money for a down payment. I'll get into that. But first, a big review here, and I've woven threads of this review through previous episodes. First, don't focus on getting only your money to work for you. And second, stress compound leverage, not compound interest. Optimize using other people's money. And when you take out a loan for rental property, you get to use other people's money three ways at the same time, three different entities, you're using their money. Number one, it's for the bank's loan, like we discussed. Number two, you're using the government's money for generous tax incentives. I only touched on one of the tax incentives. And then, thirdly, you are using the tenants money to pay down your mortgage loan and pay all of your properties operating expenses, like maintenance repairs, insurance, property taxes and pay your property manager to make this all mostly passive for you. I don't manage any of my own properties. I think you already know that. And on top of that, hopefully you'll have a little residual income after expenses every month, your monthly profit of rent income minus expenses, that is called cash flow. And when I talk about doing this ethically, use an experienced property manager. Never get called a slumlord. Provide housing that's clean, safe, affordable and functional, okay, some really core, enduring, GRE mantras in there. But what if real estate goes down in value? It's not common, but I did have it happen to me around 2008 we won't even talk about what happens when stocks go down in value, but when real estate values went down in 2008 it just didn't matter that my rental property's values were temporarily suppressed because my rents were higher than my expenses, I was still making income each month off the property. That's a good way to own property, if you can. I'm not motivated to sell an asset. I mean, are you motivated to sell an asset that's paying you income every month during a time when it's capital value dip, so probably not. And by the way, there is nothing new or esoteric here. You just haven't had it explained to you in this way before. This 33k from stocks and mutual funds versus 95k from real estate you haven't seen that before. This is simply buying houses with plain vanilla 30 year fixed rate loans, and it's just simply long term buy and hold. This is not flipping, as I like to say. This is not day trading. This is decade trading, as you continue along in your real estate journey, keep stacking more properties, and it's gonna go faster than you think, because you've got this power of compound leverage, and your tenant also pays you income that you can use toward buying the next property, and then as a backup, you have that trapped equity that keeps accumulating in your property. And the reason this goes faster than you think is that you can also release that equity by removing it with a completely tax free event, a cash out refinance, all while you still hold onto the asset and you. Use the untrapped equity to put down payments on more property. Now, what if you think you don't have the money to start or get as big as you want, as fast as you want? Well, I've met a lot of people that when they understand this compound leverage concept, they withdraw their 401 K funds, pay a penalty and pay the taxes, and they put those funds toward real estate. I mean, you would owe taxes on it anyway. Now that part may or may not be ready for you, but you know, once I understood this, what I did is I stopped contributing to my 401K and I instead got into compound leverage. Yeah, this is how to make America rich again. Now, what if you think you don't have 100k to invest in property like we did in our example? Well, there are perfectly good $200,000 properties at GREmarketplace.com where you could make a $40,000 down payment. But you still might be thinking, I'll just say that the real estate market is just really competitive now, and that your small down payment maybe it can't compete with a deep pockets all cash offer, because all cash buyers can close really fast, but no your small down payment can still compete with all cash offers, because Some sellers don't want a quick sale for either tax reasons or myriad lifestyle reasons that they might have, I like to say that using debt is like using fire if it's misallocated, like with 23% credit card debt, that's what the average credit card interest rate is right now, 23% well that can burn down your financial house. But if you know how to use the debt in a controlled manner, like from income property that others paid down for you, oh, that fire is contained in a stove, and that fire or fireplace will heat your home. If I could start all over again with what I know now, it would be to embrace good debt, because tenants pay down this debt for me, so use it as leverage to build a real estate empire. Think of it this way, besides the employer match, every dollar that you lock inside a 401K is $1 that you cannot use to leverage other people's money. Back when I started investing, I should not have contributed to a conventional retirement plan beyond the employer match myself. So I used leverage to pull my boat up to the dock more than three times faster and escape the day job when I was still young enough to enjoy it. And once you know the difference, why would you want to do life any other way? You might have heard that real estate has made more people wealthy than any other investment today.

You've learned how now, sometimes it is hard to stop and turn off a mindset if the same thing has been believed for a long time. I think we've all experienced that. If you believe something for a long time, well then it's hard to change your mind on that, and you might even fight and defend that core belief. That could be the case here with me, denigrating the wealth building capability of compound interest. And if you're still wrestling with that yourself, a great compliment where I discuss this more in depth and in a different way, can be found on an episode that I did earlier this year that is on GRE Podcast, episode 507 episode 507 is called compound interest is weak. I'm here to talk to you about things that are really gonna move the meter in your financial life, like what I've covered with you so far, and what I'm gonna help you learn next. You know, there's just some information out there, even real estate information, it's just not that useful. Say, for example, mortgage purchase applications were down from last week, but yet they were up month over month. Well, that might matter to certain sub industries, but it doesn't move the meter in your life with how you're going to actionably build wealth.

Hey, before we move on, I want to give a major shout out to this show's long time, steady, capable sound engineer, Vedran. He just hit the 10 year mark of filling that important role for us here. Yet 10 years almost since the inception of this show. He's been with us since November of 2014 so since about episode five, and he's edited every single episode since then, and he recently told me that he looks forward to the next 10. Congratulations, Vedran. Also, thanks to you, the listener, the follower. Here, we held three GRE live virtual events this year, webinars. You. You are really taking action. Back in June, we broke a record with 307 registrants for that event. And then our latest event that was held about 10 days ago saw another record broken, 528 of you registering, and I say thanks, because you make me feel good. You're showing that I'm helping make a difference in your life. And now maybe you're thinking these events or this platform, it's getting too well known, and if you show up to a future event that you might not get to ask a question, no, that's not the case. Not everyone that registers shows up for the event live, and then you can ask a lot of your own questions with a personal free coaching call as well. I'll let you listen into a coaching call later on, today's show. In fact, now I've shared with you a few times before that changes to mortgage rates don't follow changes in the federal funds rate that Jerome Powell and the FOMC said. I've also told you that mortgage rates closely track long term bond yields, but let me tell you about what all that really means, and this is going to help you understand and perhaps even predict the future direction of mortgage rates. In fact, it's unusual. You know, the largest market in the world is not the real estate market, it's not the stock market, it's the bond market. And What's unusual is here we are on episode 526, and we've really never discussed the bond market. Well, you're probably aware that a month and a half ago, the Fed dropped interest rates by a half point. Their next decision is in just three days. Now I don't think they should drop rates again, though they could. That's because since the rate cut, GDP and job growth have been strong. That's why I don't think they should do it. I mean, rates usually get cut to help a wounded economy, so why lower them now? I mean, recessions usually see rate cuts. But here's what even fewer people understand when the Fed cut rates a month and a half ago by a half point, why have mortgage rates soared since then? They were about 6.1% and then the Fed made their cut, and mortgage rates recently spiked up to 6.9% well, many still feel that the long term trend for all types of interest rates is lower. But you know for one thing, rates are really hard to predict. The Fed only controls short term rates. Long term rates, like the 30 year and 15 year mortgage are tied most closely to the yield on the 10 year treasury note, and here after I'll just call that the 10 year All right, so what is this and what controls it? Well, don't let that name intimidate you. This is get rich education. So let's break down each word yield on the 10 year treasury note. Yield just means interest rate. 10 years is the period of time that this loan is made for the duration the US Treasury issues them so they receive the loan and a note is an IOU. It was also known as a bond. That is what's held by the person or the entity that loaned the money, the person that loaned this money to the Treasury. It could be you yourself, or it could be a foreign nation. So you hold on to this note because you made the loan to the Treasury. That's the breakdown of every word of the phrase the yield on the 10 year treasury note. Okay, so to say it a different way, if you hold a 10 year treasury note, that is basically your receipt, your proof that you made a 10 year long IOU to our federal government and it is going to pay you an interest rate known as a yield. All right, that is the simplest explanation I can give. Well, a month and a half ago when Jerome Powell cut short term rates, the 10 year was 3.7% at that time, and at the beginning of last week, it was up to 4.2% that's the highest since July. And again, 30 year mortgage rates most closely track the 10 year all right, as you and I sort of hold hands through this together next, let's ask what made them rise. And you know, some think this is harder to understand than trying to understand why YouTube viewers constantly fall for ludicrous housing price crash videos. Okay, but relax. This is easy. When the economy gets hot, all these things tend to rise in value, real estate, stocks and also productivity rises. Employment rises. Is an inflation that tends to rise as well. Because a 10 year investor needs a real return above the rate of inflation, this yield must rise as well. That's it. You got it. You got it. So therefore, when a rosy jobs report comes out, the 10 year tends to go up. When a strong retail sales report comes out, the 10 year yield tends to go up or a high flying CPI is released, the 10 year tends to go up. And therefore, because it rose in the past month, investors have expectations for a strong economy and more persistent inflation. So conversely, expect both the yield on the 10 year treasury note and the 30 year mortgage rate to fall when the economic outlook gets more dim. It's important to understand that, like a lot of things in the stock market, yields on the 10 year they tend to be more of a reflection of future economic expectations than the current economy. And this should be pretty easy for you to remember, because when you think about it, that makes sense. Since you've lent out your money to the federal government for 10 years. I mean, you're really interested in what that 10 year future is going to look like. So yes, though this is somewhat less exciting than watching a motorcycle jump over the Grand Canyon now that you listen closely for the last few minutes. Congratulations. Now you know that the 10 year can tell you both what investors expect to happen in the future, and can tell you the direction of 30 year mortgage rates. And, yeah, I mean, this is just more the type of material that I wish someone had explained to me sooner, in a way, just like that. And you know, are you interested in doing things that at the end, they make you say, You know what, I just got 1% better this week. I mean, think about the kind of person you'll be if you make yourself just 1% better each week. Now you better understand how leverage beats compound interest and what makes mortgage rates move. Go out and vote tomorrow as far as next, listen into one of our GRE investment coaching calls. I'm Keith Weinhold. You're listening to get rich education.

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Zack Lemaster 29:08

this is rent to retirement. Zach Lemaster, listen to get rich education with Keith Weinhold, and don't quit your Daydream.

Keith Weinhold 29:22

Welcome. Back to get rich Education. I'm your host. Keith Weinhold, there will only ever be one GRE podcast episode five under 26 and you're listening to it. Let's let you listen into a coaching call between GRE investment coach Naresh and GRE follower, Brenda, and then I'll be back to wrap it up at the end.

Naresh Vissa 29:41

hey, Brenda, good to Good to see you after emailing back and forth. Thanks for setting up this call.

Brenda 29:47

Yeah, thanks, Naresh, thanks for setting up time to talk to me.

Naresh Vissa 29:49

Yeah. Well, tell me what made you schedule this call, like, Why did you hit that button saying I want to talk to the real estate investment coach?

Brenda 29:59

Yeah, well, I've seen some of the newsletters that come from GRE I'm familiar with some of the podcasts, but then I had gotten into the newsletters, and then I saw that there was an option for a free consultation to talk to you. And I thought, Well, I'm not sure what this really means, or what we talk about, or how you can help me, as far as, like, the vision, or how do I set my goals? Or what is it exactly that I would do with you with GRE, like, what kind of consultation Do you provide?

Naresh Vissa 30:29

Yeah, well, so that's you came to the right place. So let me tell you a little bit about GRE, a little bit about me, who we are, how we operate. So get rich. Education is an education company. As you know, you listen to the podcast, you read the newsletter. It's free. The podcast is free. The newsletter is free. You can go to our website, read our blog, go through past podcasts. You can subscribe to our YouTube channel, subscribe to our social media, Tiktok, Instagram, Facebook, X, you name it. That's all free content available for you, and this service, the real estate investment coaching, is completely free of charge. I know that sounds kind of crazy, but you'll never pay as a dime. I'm here to help you throughout and along your real estate investment journey. Think of me as a super connector, someone who can introduce you to all the right people, whether it's specific markets you want to invest in. Providers. There, wholesalers, flippers, lenders, appraisers, although your lender will take care of the appraiser part, if you need a second lender, financing, CPAs, attorneys, anything at all, just come to me and I can introduce you to the right people, or at least point you in the right direction. I'll try my best to do it 100% of the time. I don't, or I should say, I don't, have answers 100% of the time, but I do have answers most of the time, and I can forward you and refer you, point you in the right direction. So think of me as a super connector. Think of me as your silent partner in deals, because I get any equity in the deals who you don't have to pay anything to think of me as an advisor, a consultant. Again, this is a completely free service. There's you're not going to get like, a bill in the mail saying, Hey, you talked to Naresh five times, so you owe us $1,000 for that. Now, there's none of that. So the most common question I get after telling people this or, like, well, then, I mean, you can't be doing this for free. Like, why are you doing great? Like, like, yeah, what's the catch here? And they also have, I mean, I'm sure you're wondering, how do you make money? Well, if you listen to the podcast, if you go to our website, you'll see advertisements, sponsorships. We are paid marketing fees, advertising fees from partners. So you listen to the podcast, I'm sure you hear many of those commercials. We make our money on the back end, so we can keep services like this and our newsletter and our podcast free on the front note, like I said, GRE is not is an education company. We are not a broker or a wholesaler or a flipper or a builder or an agency or a realtor service or any of that a brokerage, where we're not of that, we're purely education, education based through our educational content or free educational coaching, which I offer too. So that's what you are. Got it .we work with all those other companies. So we can refer you to all those other types of companies that can help you on your real estate investment journey. But we are not any of those. Now me, personally, I am an investor myself. I own eight properties in southeastern United States. I got started in 2017 I bought my first property in a single family home. That was rehab. Back then, rehabs are very hot. That was what you should get in, that what made sense to get into. And I scaled pretty quickly. I went from one to eight in a matter of it's been seven years since I bought that first property, but I actually went from one to eight in a matter of more, like two and a half years, I just kind of went so I bought, like I said, southeastern United States, bought my last property in 2020 I'm saving up for my next property because I personally now only, like new construction, I rehabs have their place, certainly For certain investors. And at the time, I got six rehabs, rehab properties from 2017 to 2019 so I personally, though, am now saving up because new construction is more expensive than than rehab. So I'm saving up for my next real estate property, which is most likely going to be a new construction. So that's a little bit about my investing background. I've been a real estate coach Since 2019 came in 2021 to GRE and have run the coaching side ever since. So that's a little bit about me on the real estate side, on the coaching side. Now, my background is not in real. Real Estate. I like, I said, I got in 2017 before that, and I still do work in tech. So I worked in tech from 2000 really, from 2005 and still do work in tech. So it was through my tech work that I got involved in real estate, because I would do back end tech work for real estate companies. And doing that work, I was like, Oh, I started learning about real estate, and then I said, huh, if this doesn't seem hard or difficult. And I also got an investment coach who helped me, like I said, with that competitor, they also had investment coaches or investment counselors. So I had a coach who helped me a little bit, but that's what the coaches are for there to help investors like me, especially newbie investors, or even veteran investors. They're there to help investors with the networking part, with the who are offering the best deals, special deals, special interest rates, who's honest, who's dishonest? That's what I'm here to do. So that's a little bit about GRE About me, about my background, how our coaching program works. So now, Brenda, it's all about you. I want to hear I'm sure you have tons of questions based on what I just said, but before you ask those questions, I'm just going to start out with, how much cash do you have ready to invest? Because really, I could be of most service if you're looking to invest, otherwise, I can't really be of much service. So how much cash do you have ready to go to invest? And then I'll answer, I'll say something about that, and then I'll let you ask whatever questions you want.

Brenda 36:35

Sounds good. Just a cash ready for deployment is 100,000 but I'm assuming that doesn't all have to go to one property, right? Or depending on the property?

Naresh Vissa 36:46

Yeah, so, so is that lick? So what I should have clarified my question as how much liquid cash do you have on not like a 401, K, or properties that you have to cash out refinance, or it's just if you today, if you were to take a property and and you had cash ready to do so be $100,000 Yeah, correct. Okay, so, so a few things that's very good, because with 100,000 that gives you optionality. You can either go for a rehab property, and we have rehab property right now. Our hottest provider is in Memphis, Tennessee, and you can get a rehab property. Worst case scenario, let's just say the property, the average property, is about $100,000 and so you just put down a 25% down payment. So let's just give or take, let's say $30,000 I tell our investors. I say, Look, if you want to buy your first property, or Yeah, your first rehab property, you need at least $50,000 cash, liquid in the bank, ready to go. That's just because you want that cushion. You don't want to put all your eggs in one basket. So I say, if you want a rehab property, you need 50,000 if you want a new construction, single family 100,000 because the new constructions are going to cost you at least $240,000 at least. So if you take 25% of that, plus closing costs and cushion and everything, just if you want to be a good investor, you have to be disciplined. And you have to be disciplined enough to be able to save the 50,000 or the $100,000 if you want to make it as a real estate investor. So 50,000 for a rehab property, 100,000 for a new construction. If you want a duplex, you need, I say, a new construction duplex, which is probably our hottest new construction asset class right now in Florida, 150,000 for a new construction. Down payment or not. Down Payment task, ready to go for a new construction duplex, because those are selling for about 490,000 give or pay. So it's 50,000 for rehab that you should have in the bank. 100,001 in the bank for a new construction, single family. 150,000 for a duplex. Anything beyond that, then we can talk. You know, later you wanted a squad or something else, but that's generally what I say. And I tell, I tell investors. I say, Look, if you only have $30,000 in the thing, let's connect after you get up, because I don't want you putting all that 30,000 into a rehabbed property, whereas, who knows, maybe the economy might go into a recession and it stays vacant for six months. I don't want you to have to go through that. So let's stick to those numbers. So you said you have 100,000 so you have options. You can you can get either a rehab property or you can get a new construction. So it's completely up to you. It's about your new construction. Single family, it's completely up to you. I personally, I, like I said, I started out with the rehabs, and then I've kind of graduated up to new construction. God, they the lowest risk you can take with 100,000 is by starting with a. Be just a low price rehab where you put in $30,000 and full, you know, down payment burden, costs, everything else you put that, you know, 30 grand, if it first property, you put that 25 to 30 grand in, and you treat that as a learning experience. And you go through the experience, and if everything goes smoothly, then you can buy the second property, and you can decide whether, hey, do I want to continue with this rehab, or I'd still have enough capital for the new construction single payer. But I would start small. If you're new, if you're an advanced veteran investor who has six figure, well into the six figures in the bank, ready to go. I tell those people. I say, hey, let's just go for new construction. Let's go for the new construction. Single family. Let's go for the duplexes. Some of them have 700 $800,000 in some cases, a million dollars plus. I say, hey, let's let's just go for the quad to the construction four Plex. The incentives are great, etc, etc. So in your case, 100,000 you certainly have choices. And what I'll do after this call is, well, first I want to hear, based on what I said, What are your thoughts on anything, whether it's renew, construction versus rehab, and then what I brought up earlier about coaching?

Brenda 41:12

Yeah, I actually thank you, Naresh, I really like what you said about starting small. I have purchased two single family homes in the past, their rentals, but I never went through a coach. I just kind of did it on my own, and luckily, things worked out. But certainly having a coach and starting out small, just to kind of go through the process, it's really helpful. Here's the situation that I think is just a little bit different, and I know that this would probably be something that I talked to like a lender about. But in your experience, I actually just came from an 18 year career. Actually, I was in tech myself, but I'm now transitioned from a corporate w2 into more, but 1099, what's classified as like a independent company, you know, type of income, what has been your experience with other clients that transitioned from that type? Is it easier? Is it harder to obtain loans? Is there going to be different requirements? 25% does that still stand?

Naresh Vissa 42:13

Yeah. So I could give you a full, you know, lecture on this, or something called the housing expense ratio and something called the total obligation ratio. I'm not going to get into those details, because the lenders, I can refer you to lenders, and they can explain all that, and those ratios mean a lot to getting you pre qualified. But what I will say is, unfortunately, if you are 1099, you are at a disadvantage, because it's not steady, consistent income, unless you can show two years of steady, consistent income. I mean, really is the last for your last two years of tax return. So if it's a new 1099, gig, yep, you're gonna have to wait until you have two years of consistent high income. If you've been doing it for a while, then send your last two years. And if it's, you know, if it's looking good, then, then you'll get approved. The other option, and this is, this is not a personal question or anything, but it married couples can go together on one loan. So if this actually helped me out a lot, because my wife is a high income earner, and I have my own business, and my business does pretty well, but if you're 1099 as as you know, there are all sorts of things you can do with your tax return that are completely legal and to where you pay yourself as little as possible, so that you can cut your income tax. So in any case, that's like 1099 workers are a disadvantage for mortgage because all they care about is your pay stub, your you know, how much income did you have? So there were times when I put my wife on the mortgage and she's got a high income, and so you can put a spouse on there, and you can both do it together. Now you're allowed 10 loans per person, so if you want a spouse go on a mortgage that counts, even if it's for one mortgage, one property, that counts as one for each of you. So for two working husband and wife. For a couple where both spouses are working with good income, I say look, you'll want one spouse to do 10 properties and another spouse to do a completely different 10 mortgages. That way you can do 20 combined. Now, if you do it together, then you'll only be able to buy 10 combined because you're older than so 1099, workers. We get that question a lot, and it actually it is a problem, because the standards changed after 2008 so either wait the two years and have your consistent records to show high income, or if you already have it right now, then you can get approved.

Brenda 44:54

Got it. Got it. This would be for just conventional loans. What about other loan products? Like, I think I've heard of the DSCR loan where maybe just the rental property would cover, you know, part of the I'm not sure, like, I guess you're guaranteeing that the property will make enough money to cover the payment of the loan.

Naresh Vissa 45:12

Yeah, DSCR and loans are hard to get approved. Really, what I should do is introduce you to some of our lending partners. If you're interested. DSCR is meant more so for people who have utilized you want to use those 10 loans first, so because if you go you're going to have a higher interest rate if you go with the deal. So those DSCR loans, or Portfolio loans, are meant for people who have used their 10. Their spouse has used their 10. They've got capital low rolling in their ultra high net worth. So they're fine, okay, just get me another loan. I need the tax benefit. I need the tax break. I'm fine paying a 10% interest. So they'll go for a portfolio loan or a vsdr loan. In your case, first property, your first investment property, first turnkey we want to go for a loan.

Brenda 45:58

Got it makes sense. And then another question, so this was about the financing. But another question that I meant to ask earlier is, I know you mentioned, like, you know, I am not like a realtor or anything like that, but how does it work? Like, I'm think about when I'm purchasing a home, personally, I kind of say, hey, I want to three bedrooms, four bedrooms, this many baths. Like, how does that work with you? Like, do I give you criteria of what I'm looking for, or, you know, based on my goals? Do you kind of craft a plan? How does that work?

Naresh Vissa 46:29

Yeah, so I actually sent you an email just right before this call it. I think you got the email, and it includes a link to about 20% of our inventory. It's not all of our inventory. That inventory is just there. To get you started to see the types of properties that we have available. We have some constructions and the markets that we cover, again, it's only about 20% of the inventory. If you go to our GRE marketplace, you can see all of the markets that we cover. Your biggest source will be, I send out emails. So your biggest source will be, if I email you, I'll email you like a property. It'll be, Hey, I just came across this deal. It's like, it's my VIP email list. So you'll get my, you know, VIP emails, and that's going to be your, your best source. You also get Keith white holds newsletter, which promotes properties from time to time and and we only promote the best. We there are hundreds of properties we can promote. We only distill it down to the best of the best. So don't think, oh, like, there might be another property that narration knows about. Now we promote through our social media, through my email list, through Keith's newsletter, through the podcast, through the webinars, the best of the best. So that's the best way to to find out,

Brenda 47:49

got it your inventory or what you currently right,

Naresh Vissa 47:52

and with your permission, I can add you to my VIP email list. If it's okay, yeah, that would be cool. I'll go ahead and add you, and you'll start getting those emails in real time. I only send out an email maybe once every three weeks, so I really only want to send the best of the best. I want to waste people's time.

Brenda 48:07

Great. So what if you do send me an email and I'm like, Yeah, I love it. I think this is fits exactly what I'm looking for. Do I email you back? Do I contact you? Like, how do we stay in contact?

Naresh Vissa 48:18

So email is the best form of communication, because in real estate and business in general, we want documentation of everything. We don't want any miscommunications. So if you see something you like, email me. I'm available. You have my phone number. You can text me, you can call me, you can email me. I'm very accessible, but email is preferred, because that way it's in writing, and I'll know exactly what you want, the address, everything. So let's say you see a property that you like from an email that you get from Keith or from me, and you email me to say, hey, I'm interested. What are next steps? I will get you in touch with the actual like I said, we're just an education company. I'll get you in touch with the actual builder or the broker or the agent on the property, and they'll be able to answer way more questions than I can answer way more and that that's for anything. If your question is about financing, I can get you in touch with several good, low rate lenders, and they can answer all your questions about financing. Your question is CPA Tax stuff. I can get we have, uh, several good contacts who can help you out there as well.

Brenda 49:20

Got it, got it. So then what, what does our communication look like from there? Like, do if I say yes, I want it, then you get me in contact with them, and then I kind of work with whoever it is that has this property. And then hopefully we just close on the property. And that's it, right? Am I understanding that correctly?

Naresh Vissa 49:40

Sure? So, so all correctly? Yeah, I'll refer you over to them, and they will, they will take care of you. Should copy me on all emails that way. Okay, what's going on? Copy, you remember, I'm your coach. I'm here to help you, like it's free, so copy to an email so I know what's going on. If there's a problem, I can jump in. In many cases, I hold a leverage over a lot of these. People, if a problem happens, I can step in and say, Hey, treat her better. Or, you know, you should waive this cost, or whatnot. So copy, because the people who get into trouble are the people who didn't copy me on the emails. And many, many time, time just goes by, and then they come with their problem as they Hey, if you came to me a year ago, I could have actually helped you with this. Now, the statutes expired, and it's, it's a complete mess. So always, even after you're done posing on the property and you have a tenant in there and just copy me on me.

Brenda 50:30

Got it. Okay, So kind of bring you along the journey. Okay, so let's say I'm at the end, like, do these providers help me? I'm assuming in some of these cases, you've mentioned places that are far from where I live. So do they help provide additional resources, like, who's going to manage my property, or who's going to find me a tenant? Like, could they help me with that?

Naresh Vissa 50:51

Absolutely. So the entire point of GRE of this investment coaching program, the entire point is so that you can become what's called a laptop landlord. You can literally live free and have just take a step back and have your properties run on their own. So the idea is not for you to invest down the street and become a property manager and a landlord down the street. It's you can be anywhere in the world. Buy properties anywhere. Like I said, I live in Florida, but by Prop, I've never visited any of my properties. I've never met a tenant. So that's what you want to do, and that's what we help people do. If you want to buy a property across the street and become you can do that yourself. Go through all the loops yourself. We are here to help you invest in Ohio, in Tennessee, in Florida and Texas and all these places that you may not have even visited every other life, but you can still have a very fruitful investment journey. So we set all that up for you, the property management, every all that it's going to be taken care of, so that your hands off. That's why it's called turnkey real estateReal real estate investing.

Brenda 51:56

Got it. Okay, sounds good. And typically, how long does this process take? I mean, I'm sure it's different for everybody, but what can I expect, like from beginning, from when I talk to you, to when hopefully I have a property that I'm signing off on?

Naresh Vissa 52:12

In some cases, it's literally taken two days. In other cases, it's taken there's not even an answer, because people did end up buying Okay, yeah, so, so, yeah, in in the case of, like, our Memphis burr properties, which are rehab properties in Memphis, I recommend that you watch our burr webinar. I can send that to you after this call, if you'd like. But I had people who watched the webinar talk to me. I introduced them that same day to the provider in Memphis. They talk to their provider in Memphis, and then the next day, they pick the property, and the day after that, they sign a contract. Oh, okay, so it's all about the investor. If you're a serious investor, it can be very quick, like me, I was very serious. That's why I scaled. I bought eight and two and a half years, eight properties in two and a half years. Other people, if you want to take your time, it could, you could literally take your time and never buy any and a lot of people are doing that, because in 2019 they said, Oh, you know what, I'm gonna wait. There's gonna be a crash and this and that. And so they waited, they waited, and prices skyrocketed, and now they said, You know what, I'm I'm priced out of the market, so I'm just not gonna invest in real estate anymore.

Brenda 53:16

Yeah, it's that analysis paralysis. I've experienced that. Yeah, yeah, got it. Okay, cool.

Naresh Vissa 53:23

All right. So any other questions?

Brenda 53:25

No, this is really helpful. It's kind of good to know, like, kind of where you step in and kind of where you hand off, and again, the timeline is different for everybody, but it's kind of good to know that I could literally be standing here two days later and have a property if I want. So good.

Naresh Vissa 53:42

Yeah. So as we end this call, next step, so I told you about new construction versus rehab. Are you? Are you interested in both, or leaning towards one or the other? Right now? Just

Brenda 53:54

probably the rehabs, because I think, like what you said, I like the idea of the E step into like, let me see how this process goes first before kind of committing a bigger chunk of capital to something larger. Yeah, I agree.

Naresh Vissa 54:06

Okay, so here's what I'm going to do as next steps. I'm going to send you a link to the webinar we did for our hottest rehab asset class right now, hottest rehab provider out of Memphis. It's the Memphis Burkey webinar. I went ahead and just emailed that to you. So watch that webinar. It will answer like every question imaginable regarding the provider, how they do their process, the properties, everything. So watch that webinar and then shoot me an email after you're done with the webinar on what you're thinking just you can watch webinar today and you want to shoot me an email right after, just let me know what you're thinking, and we can go from there. I think that's would be the next step. Just watch that webinar, and then we'll, we'll reconnect.

Brenda 54:54

Sounds good? Okay, I like that.

Naresh Vissa 54:57

Okay, very good. Well, I sent that link to you, and. And that's about it. If you have no more questions like I said, you can add my phone number to your phone book and feel free to reach out whatever you want.

Brenda 55:07

will do. Thank you so much.

Naresh Vissa 55:09

All right, thank you. It was great.

Keith Weinhold 55:11

Yeah, I hope that you found that helpful in making America rich again. Namely, you. Of course, no two coaching calls are the same. Some GRE followers will perhaps have more questions than Brenda did. There. We are here to learn your situation. We know the mistakes you've got to avoid, and we can connect you with the best income property for you across the nation. We really filter it down to the best of the best, and besides being a truly free coaching call, we don't try to upsell you to a paid course or anything like that, because we don't even have any product to sell really. So even if you wanted to buy something from GRE, I don't know if you could, maybe unless you buy a GRE logo t shirt from our website or something like that. So keep all of your funds for the property down payment. As far as now, you can book a coaching call at GREmarketplace.com and select the free investment coaching area. Until next week, I'm your host. Keith Weinhold, don't quit your Daydream.

Speaker 3 56:21

Keith Weinhold 56:41

The preceding program was brought to you by your home for wealth, building, get rich, education.com

Direct download: GREepisode526_.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 3:00am EST

Mon, 28 October 2024

Keith highlights the unprecedented surge in immigration and its impact on housing demand. The conversation also covers state income tax policies, noting that nine states have no income tax, and the impact of international tax laws on US citizens abroad.

Immigrants now make up more than 14% of the US population, the highest proportion since 1910.

The US is facing a significant housing shortage, with an estimated 4.5 million housing units needed.

Housing shortages are expected to continue, with homelessness rates rising by 12% year over year.

Learn about the challenges of being a US citizen living abroad and the potential for double taxation.

Resources:

Connect with Tom's team at WealthAbility for a free consultation on permanently reducing taxes.

Show Notes:

GetRichEducation.com/525

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524: How is Your Tenant Doing? and Creative Deal Structuring with Zero Down Payment

Complete episode transcript:

Automatically Transcribed With Otter.ai

Keith Weinhold 0:01

welcome to GRE I'm your host. Keith Weinhold, both an immigrant surge and a big wave of US born residents is tightening housing demand near unprecedented levels. Then we're joined by show regular Tom terrific again, but it's not Tom Brady on how to legally avoid paying state income tax and the fact that if you're from the US, if you move out, you must still pay tax on your worldwide income, plus more tax strategies that you can benefit from today on Get Rich Education.

Speaker 1 0:34

since 2014 the powerful get rich education podcast has created more passive income for people than nearly any other show in the world. This show teaches you how to earn strong returns from passive real estate investing in the best markets without losing your time being a flipper or landlord. Show Host Keith Weinhold writes for both Forbes and Rich Dad advisors, and delivers a new show every week since 2014 there's been millions of listener downloads of 188 world nations. He has a list show, guess who? Top Selling personal finance author Robert Kiyosaki, get rich education can be heard on every podcast platform, plus it has its own dedicated Apple and Android listener phone apps build wealth on the go with the get rich education podcast. Sign up now for the get rich education podcast, or visit getricheducation.com

Corey Coates 1:20

You're listening to the show that has created more financial freedom than nearly any show in the world. This is get rich education.

Keith Weinhold 1:36

Welcome to GRE from Athens Georgia to Athens, Greece and across 488 nations worldwide. I'm your host. Keith Weinhold, get rich education. Founder, Forbes real estate council member, best selling. Author, long time real estate investor and holder of a humble bachelor's degree in geography from a college in Pennsylvania that nobody's ever heard of. It's that time of year where you now have Halloween decorations in your front yard competing hard for space with political campaign signs. What's your HOA gonna do now? Welcome in this slack shot operation right here is the get rich education podcast. I think you know that by now it's episode 525

Brace yourself, immigration has absolutely exploded. I've got the latest numbers on that, and there's a chart recently published in The Wall Street Journal that shows it all legal and illegal. We're a real estate platform, so the question I'm asking is, Where in the heck are we going to house all of these people? In addition to soaring immigration, we'll look at our own domestic US born surging population that are forming households now, and that part might have flown under your radar. This is an urgent issue. All of this isn't just coming. It is already here, this explosion of housing demand, it will indelibly shape both broader society and real estate's supply demand component for decades, it is really approaching the unprecedented we look at net immigration to the US since 2000 it's really these past four years where the numbers have shot up like a rocket through 2020 immigration averaged around 1.2 million people per year, but since 2021 it has more than doubled to around two and a half million net immigrants per year. But the number of illegals arriving among them has gone up as much as 10x starting in 2021 and the overall figures they keep rising. Last year, there were over 3 million immigrants, about three times the total number that we averaged in the first 20 years of this century. So a 3x total net inflow, legal and illegal. And these figures in the Wall Street Journal chart, they are sourced by the CBO. Now you might think that the immigrants that did not enter legally could eventually get deported, but some of them that are already living and working here, gained something called Temporary Protected Status that keeps them here. Well, our central question remains, Where in the heck are we going to house all of these immigrants in a nation of almost three 40 million people? Do you have any idea what our foreign born population is up to now, okay, so not the descendants of those people, just the foreign born population here now, out of the 340 million total US population, any guess? Venture a guess. Last year, the US foreign born population reached 47.8 million. And that figure 47 point 8 million, that is five times more than in 19 75x Do you even realize that's almost double the population of the entire continent of Australia, now crammed into the states. That's how many immigrants, 47.8 million is. It's also the same as the population of all of Spain. That's another way of saying it all in the US today. And by the way, that is my geography degree at work, right there. Hey, the geography muscle is one that I just don't get to flex enough. Immigrants now make up more than 14% of the population. That is one in seven Americans. And that proportion, right there is the most since 1910, per Pew Research. Well, where are the immigrants from? Alright? Before I get into that, if we go back about 60 years, immigrant growth accelerated after Congress made changes to US immigration laws in 1965 that was a key year before 1965 the law favored immigrants from Northern and Western Europe, and it mostly barred immigration from Asia, all right, Well, so here in modern times, where are immigrants from? Mexico is the top country in 2022, 10.6, million immigrants living in the US were born there. That is almost a quarter of all immigrants. And then the next largest origin groups in order are those from India, China, the Philippines, and then El Salvador. All right, so there are a lot of new immigrants here, like a demographic shock wave that's going to drive the demand for housing. But there's way more to this housing crunch story. Combine this nascent immigration influx along with America's own high birth rate years. And this is something that you might not be aware of, though, what I just talked about that might have been somewhat informative to you. You probably had some idea that immigration is higher now, because it's been in the news cycle for a few years here, but something that you probably don't know. And yes, fertility rates are down today, but there was a boom of US born residents from the years 1990 to 2010 and then you might say, well, so what 1990 to 2010 that was in the past? But no, actually, it is just the beginning, because when it comes to housing, it has less to do with the birth year. Currently, what you have to do is add perhaps 25 or 35 years to that birth year, because that's the age of when that person tends to start their own household. And the average age of today's first time homebuyer is 35 to 36 years old. Well, the US is peak birth year occurred in 2007 then adds 35 or so to it. And that means that, on average, they will buy their first home in the early 2040s and a lot of them were going to start renting in the 2020s and 2030s So suffice to say, a lot more Americans will need homes. Well, what else will those high birth years from 1990 to 2010 mean now and into the future? Realize that over 13,000 Americans are turning 35 every single day, both now and years in to the future, record highs. Yes, every single day, just another demographic figure that's on the rise, and there are deaths to account for as well. But the population aging into home ownership is projected to exceed the population aging out like with deaths for a long time, this will pump housing demand. The US has about 144 million housing units today, and we are going to need more housing of all types. Well, between all the fresh immigration I discussed and this US born surge, you've indubitably got the recipe for a ridiculous amount of demographic driven housing demand. And you know, maybe over the past few years, at times, you or some of your friends or family, they've wondered why housing prices have risen fast, why rents have risen fast, and why? Even a tripling of mortgage rates couldn't stop it. It could only slow it down. It's because of this demand that is just coming, and it's going to keep on coming from both the US born demographic surge and an immigrant surge. And here's the thing, as we know this is all amidst a still lackluster US housing supply today, so greater demand, yet still a meager supply. Zillow estimates that we're still four and a half million housing units short, and the housing deficit is growing, although other outlets have estimates that, you know, they really are all over the place. These estimates as to how great the shortage is, 3 million is probably closer to a good amalgamation of how severe the housing shortage is, all right. Well, how do we reduce the housing deficit? We need to start more construction, but it had its recent peak in 2022 and it's fallen since then, in single family homes, because builders faced higher interest rates then and new apartment building starts, they have fallen too. And two years ago we had a lot of apartment building starts, actually. And as you drive through major cities today, you might still see cranes in the air. You still see a lot of active apartment building construction, actually, but more of those projects began two years ago. They began to freeze as interest rates rose, and now they've just got to complete what they've already begun. It can be two years from an apartment construction start to a completion. So as some of these complete, there will be some absorption time there on apartments. But the starts are way down on apartments. This year, we should have at least double the number of apartment starts being started than what we have now. So this sets us up for more future shortages, regulation and zoning. We know that that slows down building for most any housing type, single family, homes, apartments, condos, whatever it is. And nimbyism is a condition that's especially pervasive in the construction of new apartment buildings. Neighbors don't perceive new single family homes as a threat in their neighborhood like they do apartments, whether that's warranted or not. That's how people feel. That's the sentiment. That's the type of neighbor that shows up at a public meeting and speaks out against new apartment buildings. So to summarize what you've learned so far, it's really the confluence of four housing factors coming together here, two of them for higher demand and two for lower supply. The two for higher demand are more immigrants and a surge of US born people from 1990 to 2010 that are just starting to get old enough to need their own place. That's the higher demand side. And then the two factors on the paltry supply side are both a lack of current supply and not enough building for the future. Either it is an increasingly dire situation, and it can even be in your face. Actually. How is it in your face? Well, it's one reason that you see more homeless people on the street in your nearest city, although you might see more US born homeless than you do immigrant homeless. HUD tells us that the homelessness rate has jumped 12% year over year. That's the fastest homelessness increase rate they've ever reported. I talked to you about that before, and I'm waiting for HUD to release their new number in December. They released that annually. You know, amidst this demand, supply imbalance, in fact, anymore, let's look at it this way. Let's flip the script. Consider what could possibly stop insatiable US housing demand from exceeding supply for decades. And when you do, when you think about what could stop that, it starts to get absurd a sudden, new construction technology that pumps out homes like a popcorn machine, climate change that roasts us into human popcorn, not the good kind, and AI or VR, so advanced that We're all going to live inside some sort of force field. How about an even worse pandemic, or even a world war that would have to kill at least 10s of millions of people, or something like that, or aliens or asteroids destroying Earth? Or how about a depression level economic contraction. But see all these scenarios that would derail the housing demand trend. They range from the pretty unlikely to the downright ludicrous. Starts to sound like a Sci-fi flick, and amidst a lot of those afflictions, your life's biggest concern wouldn't be your real estate investment portfolio. It would be primordial human survival. Now, before I summarize your big takeaway here, let me tell you immigration, it has near term downsides, like a lack of housing and a demand for public assistance. And yes, I know a huge pack of new immigrants can appear sort of like a Walmart at first glance, huge, chaotic and full of people that seem like they've given up on life.

But that is certainly not always the case. A lot of immigrants are ambitious long term new young people drive an economy. Immigrants have long been a backbone of innovation. A lot of our tech giants were started by immigrants or their children, and also a lot of immigrants find those construction jobs that can help us build our way out of the housing shortage crisis, but that is going to take a long time. The bottom line here is that if you're looking for your own home, waiting probably won't help. As an investor, own more properties now, own lots of rental housing, you're going to have something that everybody needs. Housing demand is expected to exceed supply well into the future. Both this US born surge of people and the immigrants, what they do is they tend to be renters for years before they become buyers, if they ever become buyers, from here today, it's a realistic scenario to expect then soaring real estate prices, higher rents and lofty occupancy rates for years.

Well, Tom terrific is back in the house, and we are talking taxes. Brady's in the gun bulletin to his left. He's got the hoo man on the right wing with Dobson to the right Collie and Tomkins left. Brady throws it to the end zone for kenbrell Tompkins. Leaping. Kenbrell Tompkins, Brady's back.

That's your quarterback. Show ponies, where's the beat? All right, that's enough. Scott zolak, Bob Sochi on the call there 95 the sports hub in Boston. No Tom. Brady is not the Tom terrific that we often have here. Brady simply doesn't know enough about taxes. We've got the tax expert with us, the extraordinary Tom. We're right. What about that spirited play call at the end there? Did he say unicorns show ponies? Where's the beef? I don't really get all that. So getting back to real estate and taxes here, look, here's the thing, when you see what your government spends money on, and you're disgusted by some of these spending programs, doesn't that give you a supreme motivation to want to reduce your taxes? Well, we're going to talk about state income taxes where they're high where they're low. There are currently nine income tax free states. Are more states looking to drop their income tax to zero and join them? Or is it going the other direction, where they're looking to raise them if you live in one state and invest in another. We'll get into how that looks too. Canadian listeners, sorry, we don't plan to have provincial income tax discussion today. Now, I seem to have become here no more for my real estate investing voice than anything else. Last month, I was in Pennsylvania for a while, and I ran into one of my high school teachers. He was the art teacher, but he also taught a class called journalism in publications. That was an elective class, and I took that class as a high school student. I think I was a senior then, well, our job was to lay out the yearbook, writing, positioning and centering this text here in that image over there. Well, I told my old journalism and publications teacher that he's been a substantial influence on me because, as you know, I write our Don't quit your Daydream letter to you about every week. And I just love doing that, I've always thought of myself as more of a writer than a talker, and I myself really enjoy writing and laying out the body and images of our newsletter and sending it to you about weekly on crucial information that you must know About, real estate investing, economics and wealth mindset. It's got a dash of humor, and every single letter can be read in less than five minutes, often less than three minutes. I would love to have you as one of our 1000s of weekly readers, and it is free. You can get it simply by texting GRE to 6866. come along and join us for real estate investing information and fun. Just take a moment and do it right now while it's on your mind. Text, GRE to 6686 lots more. Straight ahead. I'm Keith Weinhold. You're listening to get Rich education.

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Chris Martenson 21:42

this is peak prosperity's Chris Martinson. Listen to get rich education with Keith Weinhold, and don't quit your Daydream.

Keith Weinhold 21:58

This week's guest is, to me, the world's foremost tax pro. He is an international authority on how you can permanently reduce your taxes, and he really makes taxes easy, fun and understandable, like no one else that I've ever met does. He runs a terrific educational platform too. It's called wealth ability. Welcome back to get rich education. Tom, we're right.

Tom Wheelwright 22:21

Thanks, Keith, always good to be here.

Keith Weinhold 22:23

Yeah, it's so good to have you back, because taxes are such a dynamic topic. And one place where I wonder if it's going to be dynamic, Tom, is we have a number of states that don't have any state income tax, which is something that people have to pay on top of their federal income tax. Federal alone can be up to 37% some of the states with the fastest population growth, like Tennessee, Florida and Texas, don't have any state income tax. So what I'm wondering, Tom is, are more states considering abolishing the income tax like those states have done.

Tom Wheelwright 22:59

We've actually seen a lot of states in the last couple of years reduced their income tax rates. So Arizona, where I live, is one of them. We went from over a potential tax rate of like eight and a half percent potential to an actual tax rate of 5% there was actually a proposal passed that would have increased it down to a tax rate of two and a half percent. Our former governor, Doug Ducey, his goal was to abolish the income tax in Arizona, and we did get down to two and a half percent. There are a number of states, typically in the middle of the country. You don't see any states on the coasts doing this, outside of Florida, that are reducing their tax rates. So you do see states doing that. You see other states that are increasing their tax rates. Recently, I was reading about Bill Belichick, and he said, Massachusetts is always hard getting the top earners, the top free agents, into New England. Because he says, This is taxachusetts, because they have a surtax on millionaires. Well, of course, all football players are millionaires. That is an issue. People are leaving states like California, Massachusetts, New York, New Jersey, and they're moving to low tax states such as Arizona, Texas, Florida and, you know, the whole southern belt.

Keith Weinhold 24:15

with Belichick having Tom Brady. It didn't matter if he couldn't bring in the best players, because Tom Brady made stars out of nobodies. It seems like he could complete a pass to any no name wide receiver or tight end for two decades there in New England. But can you tell us more about maybe interesting dynamics with state income tax? For example, I know that California has punitively high state income taxes, and then you have other states that have tax rate tables and some that have flat taxes, like, I think Pennsylvania has about a 3% flat income tax. Colorados is 4.4 so can you tell us more?

Tom Wheelwright 24:51

Yeah, there are, you know, the federal income tax has graduated rates. We go, actually, from a zero rate to currently a 37% rate, which is not really 37% rate. It's really 41% because there's a 4% add on tax that pretty much you're gonna pay. So it's really over 40% California has a graduated tax rate, but it goes up to 13% Minnesota has a high income tax. New York has a high income tax. So Massachusetts, we're seeing high income taxes. The states that provide have big governments and provide lots of services have high tax rates. That's why we see it on the coasts. Interesting enough. Minnesota. Minnesota is the liberal state in the middle of the country, and so they have liberal states tend to have very high tax rates, and conservative states tend to have very low tax rates.

Keith Weinhold 25:45

Now we have a lot of real estate investors here that have learned that the best deals are outside their home state. So that investor might be domiciled in a Minnesota, but investing in, say, Arkansas, tell us about how the state income tax affects them.

Tom Wheelwright 25:59

So it's kind of like being a US citizen, right? You live in the US. You're taxed on your worldwide income. You live in Minnesota. You're taxed on your worldwide income in Minnesota. So by virtue of where your residency is, you are taxed on all of your income. Now you'll get a credit, typically, for taxes paid to another state. Well, let's say that your tax rate in your state is 10% and then you invest in a state with a tax rate of 3% well you're going to get tax credit of 3% so you're still going to pay 7% in your state, plus 3% that state. You're still going to pay your 10% it's just going to be some of that's going to go to another state. Some of it's going to go to your state. But in total, your tax rate is likely to be wherever you live. That's youroverall state tax rate. I'll give you another example. Let's say that you invest in Texas, you live in in Minnesota, you're going to pay Minnesota tax rates on your income, you get no credit because you have no tax in Texas. What's worse is, though, you have property tax in Texas, but you don't get a credit in Minnesota for your property tax paid in Texas. So you have much higher property taxes in Texas than you do in most states. Right? Because every state has to raise revenue, right? In Texas has decided to it largely on sales tax and property tax. So that means that you don't get that offset. Property taxes are pretty serious in Texas. If you're an investor in Texas, you know that property taxes are pretty serious, but you don't get any kind of benefit in Minnesota, but you still pick up the income in Minnesota.

Keith Weinhold 27:38

In some Texas jurisdictions, property taxes can be 3% annually based on the property's value, pretty punitive. There in Texas, Texas is a good example. That's where we have often high property tax rates, but zero state income tax. So with these other states that have zero state income tax, are they subsidizing that with property taxes or sales taxes, or in what other way are they making up that?

Tom Wheelwright 28:03

Of course, for example, we were talking earlier about Tennessee. Tennessee doesn't have a personal income tax, but if you have your real estate owned through a limited liability company, you do have a 6% tax on the income of the LLC. So even though it's a pass through entity for Tennessee purposes, it's taxed. They have all sorts of mechanisms to raise revenue. All states need revenue. Now, some states raise less revenue per capita than other states. Those are the states that people tend to move to. But don't forget those other taxes. I mean, sales taxes. Sales taxes can be very high, right? And you pay sales taxes typically don't pay them on food or prescription drugs, but you typically pay them on pretty much everything else, and including leasing a car, they're going to get their money. It's just how they get their money.

Keith Weinhold 28:50

Well, we've been talking about ways that you could potentially legally escape taxation, depending on what state that you live in. So in a domestic sense, and Tom we pull back and we think about that in an international sense. A lot of Americans don't seem to realize that if they're, I guess, born and raised and get citizenship in the United States when they become an adult and get older and they go abroad, they have to continue to pay US taxes if they move to Norway or Dubai. Can you tell us about that?

Tom Wheelwright 29:21

Yeah, so US citizens are taxed on worldwide income as long as they're a US citizen. Here's what's really interesting in the US let's say you give up your US citizenship, you're still subject to taxes on your worldwide income for 10 years. Wow, after you give up your citizenship so you no one get any of the benefits of being a citizen. You've given that up, and you still have taxes for 10 years. Earlier this year, we did an episode, and we talked a little bit about this unrealized capital gains tax, right? People don't think, well, I'll just leave. Doesn't work that way. You're still going to have the capital gains tax for at least 10 years, and the only way to get rid of it is to give up your citizenship and wait 10 years. It's a pretty restrictive law, because most countries only tax if you live there, if you're a citizen of France, but you move to Belgium, you're taxed in Belgium, you're not taxed in France. Not true with us.

Keith Weinhold 30:19

Yeah, that's remarkable. I didn't know about that 10 year thing. Even if you renounce your citizenship, those taxes will follow you for 10 years regardless of where else in the world you live. Um, I'm just maybe this is a little bit of devil's advocate. I mean, this sounds preposterous when we first think about how Americans are taxed abroad for the rest of their life, but maybe thinking of it philosophically, if it does make sense in any way, which is really hard for me to say, but maybe it's because, okay, well, you were born and raised in the United States, where we have this very mature infrastructure and stable currency and good educational system, so you got to be a beneficiary of that. So when you're 30, you can't move away and never give us any tax money to support that. Again, what are your thoughts with that?

Tom Wheelwright 31:02

different countries have different tax systems? What I will say is, just like the state discussion, you do get a credit for taxes paid to another country. So if you have income taxes, let's say you're living in Portugal and you pay Portuguese income taxes, you're not going to pay taxes twice. You're going to pay the higher of the two rates, either the Portuguese tax rate or the US tax rate, but you should not be paying tax twice. Now, if you're going to do that, you need a really good team of tax professionals. You need a good US tax professional, and you need a good tax professional where you live, and those two tax professionals need to talk to each other on a regular basis, because otherwise you can end up paying double tax, and that is the worst of all worlds. You do not want to end up paying double tax. So make sure that just know that if you're going to invest in another country, or you're going to live in another country, you need double the tax advice.

Keith Weinhold 31:05

I am just going to speculate that there are an awful lot of people that don't consider taxes before they move, whether that's domestic or international, not that that should be the top consideration, but a lot of people probably aren't even thinking about it.

Tom Wheelwright 32:13

A lot of people aren't. That's true. Now, are there ways to reduce your taxes internationally, particularly if you're in business? Yes, there are ways that you can reduce your taxes. So know that there is still tax planning available. But I hear about people saying, I'm going to invest in the Dominican Republican, or I'm going to invest in Dubai, or I'm going to invest somewhere else. Just know that you've got now two sets of laws that you're working with you're working with US laws, and you're working with that country's laws. And so make sure that you've got good advisory on both sides. When we're talking about moving for tax considerations, we should cover Puerto Rico. Tell us about the advantageous tax laws for Puerto Rico, and if they're going to sunset, they're there for the foreseeable future. So Puerto Rico, depending on how you earn your income, you can potentially reduce your income tax rate from the current 37% rate in the US to 4% yeah, that's basically an agreement with Puerto Rico. Puerto Rico is still the US, but it's got special laws that it's almost like a treaty, right? Even though it's a territory of the US. And what happens is, is that if you set it up properly, you got to live there, by the way, you can't just pretend. You got to live there six months in a day out of the year, over six months a year. And if you do, then you get a 4% tax rate on the income you earn while you're in Puerto Rico. If you earn income while you're in the mainland, you're going to pay tax on the mainland, but the income you earn in Puerto Rico, you're going to pay 4% tax. And there are certain types of income that that works for certain types of income, it doesn't just make sure that this is one where you need a Puerto Rican tax advisor as well as your US tax advisor. Capital Gains also have they have a potential tax rate of zero. So there are obviously details you have to follow again, make sure, before you get into that, know that there are huge tax benefits for living in Puerto Rico. No question. You know, it's the Puerto Rican discount. What can I say? We say in Arizona that California has a beach tax and we have a desert discount. The same was true in Puerto Rico. Puerto Rico has a Puerto Rican discount. That's what it is.

Keith Weinhold 34:24

Yeah, you're going to be getting on a plane a lot in order to go anywhere. I know an awful lot of entrepreneurs that have relocated to Puerto Rico. You do too. Tom, you the listener, probably do as well. It's really important to have the right team before you make such considerations. And before we're done today, Tom and I will talk about how you can connect with him and learn more. But Tom, since we last had you here, you updated your terrific book, which I have on my bookshelf called Tax Free Wealth. Tell us about the updates and changes you made to the book.

Tom Wheelwright 34:56

We do a new edition of tax free wealth every time there's a major change in the tax law. So the second edition was the 2017 tax law, because that was a major change. Since 2017 though we've had six major changes to the tax law, we had a bunch of major tax law changes during COVID And so what we did was we actually took the 2017 and all the new ones, werolled them all into a new edition. By far. This is the best edition of tax free wealth by a long shot. I mean, I think tax free wealth, you know, got good bones to it. It's a good book. Got almost 4005 star reviews on Amazon. This is the one I like the best, by far.

Keith Weinhold 35:18

Tax Free wealth, I read the original edition, and it's not like watching motorcycles jump off ramps, but for a tax book, it's actually really a good read there. He really brings life and some good examples to how you can permanently reduce your taxes. Tom, you and your terrific firm wealth ability have been helping people do that for years. If you the listener, want to Tom's team and Tom's referral network to help you permanently reduce your taxes. We have a resource for you atget rich education.com/taxwe can actually set up a free consultation to confirm if indeed they can help you in your situation. And Tom, why don't you talk to us some more about the importance of having the right tax pro on your team, and how they're not actually an expense, but really they're an incentive to you, because the fastest way to get an ROI is actually by reducing your taxes, because it can be done almost instantly.

Tom Wheelwright 35:36

Yeah, for sure. And what's important is that you have a relationship with a tax advisor that does give you tax advice. That's why it's called a tax advisor. They actually give you tax advice, and they willing to give it to you. And they're not waffling. They're not saying, Well, I don't know, or they're not backing off. They're saying, Well, look, if you do this, this is what you get. You have to choose whether you want to make those changes to your situation, but they're going to give you, you know, what changes you can make to your facts in order to reduce your taxes. I think the most important thing, though, is that you have a partnership with your CPA, that this is a true relationship. And we've actually changed the way we work with clients. We used to charge for projects. We used to charge for tax returns. What we want is a relationship, so we basically charge a monthly fee for the relationship. So that's a recent change in our model, you're going to see more and more CPAs go to that model, because it is a much more comfortable model for both the CPA and for the client. But what we want to do is we want to emphasize the relationship. We don't want you to feel like every time you pick up the phone, you're going to get charged. We don't want you to feel like, well, all that tax return fee is just killing me. No, it's not a tax return fee, it's a monthly fee. It's an annual fee, billed monthly, is what it is. And that way you have something come up, you don't have to worry about them and get a bill for it. You have even an IRS audit come up. Once you're a client with us for a year. After the first year, we'll then allow you to pay a small monthly fee so that when you get audited, you won't pay us for handling the audit. We call that an audit defense plan. I talk about that in tax free wealth. To me, we've been operating this way. So my firm, which I worked with people like Robert Kiyosaki, we've been operating this way for several years, and it is the best way to work with a tax advisor, because you always have that relationship, and you never have to worry. I'm not going to get this big tax bill, this big fee, like you do for an attorney, right? You don't call your attorney, because you can get a big fee, right? Every minute it's going to be a big fee. This is a great way to work with a tax advisor and make sure that you can be proactive, and they can be proactive. It's really a great way to help build the relationship over time, which is something that you're going to want to have over time again. If you want to learn more and have that free consultation, you can start at get rich education.com/tax.

Keith Weinhold 38:56

Tom, it's been valuable as always. Thanks so much for coming back onto the show.

Tom Wheelwright 38:59

Thanks, Keith.

Keith Weinhold 39:06

Nine states don't have an earned income tax. Alaska, Florida, Nevada, New Hampshire, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Washington and Wyoming. And the way to avoid state income tax is clearly to start by living in one of those states. I don't believe that moving to one just for tax reasons, is a good idea, though, like I was saying earlier, do you agree with how your government is spending your tax dollars? If you don't, then you owe it to yourself to reduce your tax burden, otherwise, you are just helping to fuel reckless spending. And when you lower your tax burden, not only do you stop fueling reckless spending, of course, you increase your own personal return on investment. You know in fact. This paying any more tax than you have to fuel a kleptocracy. I think it's at least worth asking the question then, because this is get rich education, little learning moments, some vocab rehab. Here, you can think of a kleptocracy as being synonymous with a fevocracy. The strict definition of a kleptocracy is a government whose corrupt leaders use political power to expropriate the wealth of the people and land they govern, typically by embezzling or expropriating government funds at the expense of the wider population. All right, well, is that a little too strong for the behavior of our elected leaders or not? I'll let you decide that. But see, most of the 1000s of pages of the US tax code does not outline the taxes that you have to pay. Did you realize that the vast majority of the IRS Code is a guidebook to help you reduce your taxes that are in those tax tables. Well, now my own tax return is hundreds of pages long, and a lot of it outlines how my taxes have been reduced for that tax year. Well, Tom's excellent book called tax free wealth is sort of a digestible way to make the reading more fun than any psycho that would read the entire IRS tax code, but to make it even easier than that, it's really a good opportunity to connect with Tom's team and see exactly how they can help you reduce your tax In your specific situation, and is especially helpful for real estate investors and business owners. You know that I often like to leave you with something actionable. You can book a free consult at getrich education.com/tax that's get richeducation.com/tax.

Until next week, I'm your host. Keith Weinhold, don't quit your Daydream.

Speaker 2 42:06

Keith Weinhold 42:34

The preceding program was brought to you by your home for wealth building. Get rich education.com you

Direct download: GREepisode525_.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 4:00am EST

Mon, 21 October 2024

Join our upcoming GRE live event right here! - ‘New Turnkey Properties with ZERO Money Down’ on Thursday 10/24.

Keith discusses the financial health of tenants, noting that 75% of new renters earn over $75,000 annually. He is joined by GRE Investment Coach Naresh Vissa to highlight the incentives offered by new build property providers, including interest rates in the 4's and up to $30,000 in immediate equity.

New build homes now cost only 1% more than resale homes.

Rent-to-income ratios remain stable at 31%, despite wage growth outpacing rent growth.

Current market conditions offer a unique opportunity to build wealth through real estate.

Attend the live online event on Thursday, October 24 at 8pm Eastern to learn more about the new build property incentives.

Show Notes:

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523: How to Vet a Property Manager

Complete episode transcript:

Automatically Transcribed With Otter.ai

Keith Weinhold 0:01

Welcome to GRE. I'm your host. Keith Weinhold, we check in on the health of your tenant. How are they doing financially? Learn why new build homes now cost about the same as existing homes. Then learn about creative financing and how to put zero money down on an income property today on Get Rich Education.

Speaker 1 0:26

Since 2014 the powerful get rich education podcast has created more passive income for people than nearly any other show in the world. This show teaches you how to earn strong returns from passive real estate investing in the best markets without losing your time being a flipper or landlord. Show Host Keith Weinhold, writes for both Forbes and Rich Dad advisors, and delivers a new show every week since 2014 there's been millions of listener downloads of 188 world nations. He has a list show. Guess who keep top selling personal finance author Robert Kiyosaki, get rich education can be heard on every podcast platform, plus it has its own dedicated Apple and Android listener phone apps build wealth on the go with the get rich education podcast. Sign up now for the get rich education podcast, or visit get rich education.com

Corey Coates 1:11

You're listening to the show that has created more financial freedom than nearly any show in the world. This is get rich education.

Keith Weinhold 1:27

Welcome to GRE from Lewiston, Maine to Lewiston, Idaho and across 488 nations worldwide. I'm Keith Weinhold, and you are listening to get rich education. Don't live below your means. Grow Your means, you need a proven wealth building vehicle that pays you multiple ways, like real estate or a business, because in order to build legacy wealth, otherwise, how many Papa John's coupons are you going to have to collect that's living below your means, something that's not sustainable long term, not where you want to be. And you know something your first million that takes a while for you to reach a net worth of a million dollars, that can take over 30 years, like the first 30 plus years of your life. Let's say then you are age 32 until you reach the million dollar mark. Well, your next million Okay, so a $2 million net worth, that's not going to take you another 32 years, but maybe, if your sole source of income is trading your time for dollars at a job, you won't hit the $2 million net worth Mark until age 40 to 45 but instead, if you've got leveraged rental property, ah, now you've got other people's money working for you, and a 5x multiplier on your skin in the game, and that's something that a 401K is never going to give you. And instead of hitting 2 million at age 40 or 45 like the day job worker, well, you can hit a four or $5 million net worth mark at that age, setting you up for an early retirement, or at least that option to do so your life is going to feel different when working is An option, not an obligation, and all that sure can happen even sooner. If you think you are behind, from what I was just talking about, there, you find yourself behind those net worth figures. Well, the vehicle of real estate pays five ways. Is what's going to allow you to catch up, and you might be simultaneously measuring your wealth in cash flow as much or more than in net worth terms. Anyway, chances are you do, though, have more wealth today than you have ever had in your entire life, and that's because here in late 2024 we're at a time when just about every asset imaginable is at or near all time highs, real estate, stocks, gold, Bitcoin, and perhaps the number one traded commodity in the world, oil, is one of the few substantial outliers where that is not true. Well, now that we've checked in on how your wealth building is progressing. How about the financial health of your tenant? That's important because you want them to have the ability to pay your mortgages and your operating expenses for you. Well, there seems to be a weird narrative that tenants, you know, like they're always these jilted wannabe homeowners, or like they're auditioning for a season of Survivor, barely living above the poverty line, destitute and eating macaroni and cheese three times a day. Now, there are some of those cases, for sure, but 75% of new rent. Have incomes above $75,000 well, then maybe they eat at the Cheesecake Factory monthly. Even the wealthiest Americans are turning into forever renters. We have seen the rise of the millionaire renter. More than 11% of renters have an annual income over $750,000 that is pretty Wall Street Journal. Gosh, I guess that caviar and truffles are in the home. And what are they doing for cheese? Forget Kraft Singles. My guess for them is that only artisanal cheeses are eaten off of little wooden boards. The census itself recently published research declaring this headline, incomes are keeping up with rent increases. Now you might find it really surprising that tenant rent to income ratios haven't materially changed over the last dozen years. Last year, US renters shelled out a 31% share of their income on rent, and that is actually much like they have for a long time. In fact, between 30 and 32% every year since 2011 that's what the figure's been and to be clear, what we're talking about here again is the rent to income ratio. It's simple. It's just the proportion of your tenants income that goes toward rent. 31% or you might think, Well, wait, how can this be? Because there sure are a lot of headlines around rent burdened households. And for a while there previously, we had wage growth lagging rent growth, although wage growth is ahead of CPI now, and it has been for quite a few months. All right. Well, here's what's happening. Really, it's three things, renter incomes are growing faster than homeowner incomes. Secondly, the struggle is real for low income renters. And thirdly, new construction units. In recent years, they tend to be created for middle and upper income households. All right, so let's break this down. The first phenomenon occurring, renter incomes are growing faster than homeowner incomes. Yes, younger Americans, they're more often renters, and they have more income growth than older generations do. Secondly, like I was saying, the struggle really is a thing for low income renters, they tend to rent apartments more often than single family homes, and census stats show the rent burden household growth in those is occurring with those that make under 75k a year. That's where their distress is, and of course, it's especially bad among those making under 50k a year, and many of them don't receive rental assistance, and inflation has affected that group worse. And then the third reason for these stable rent to income ratios are that new construction units in recent years, they tended to be created for middle and upper income households, so we haven't built nearly enough affordable housing driving demand and rent prices, and again, that crushes those lower income households. And hey, I do want to credit terrific rental housing economist Jay Parsons for bringing some of this to light. The bottom line here and what you've learned about the financial health of renters today, actually, you didn't learn anything. All I did was talk about cheese, really, though, the lesson is that Rental Affordability has become more bifurcated. It's worsened for the lowest income households, but overall, rent to income ratios are still steady near 31% I mean, really, who knew that stability could be so predictable? Now there's another sort of misconception, or I guess anomaly really, in today's real estate market, and that is the fact that new build homes don't cost much more than older resale homes. In fact, today, the median new bill home sells for 421k That's not much more than that of an existing home at 417k that's only about a 1% difference. It's really an unusually small disparity, just a 1% premium for a new home today over a resale home. All right. Well, what is going on here? One reason for this is the very well documented interest rate lock in effect existing homeowners aren't giving up their property. Another is that the new build properties are smaller than they were in years past. Helping keep their prices in check. And a third reason for why new build homes cost almost the same as existing homes today, weirdly, is that home builders they are giving buyers incentives to purchase new build homes today because buyers often need down payment and closing cost help in order to get in. And we're going to talk about one especially good new build incentive program for these brand new properties later in the show today, and what you can do with creative financing there. The real lesson here is, if you can, you want to give more consideration to owning more new build income property today than you might have in years past, because they're down to about the same price as resale properties, only costing 1% more, on average, and this is all based on data from the census, HUD and the NAR. So again, just about 421k for new builds and 417k for resale single family homes today, they are the median prices

you can follow get rich education at all the usual places on social, Facebook, Instagram, Tiktok X and YouTube. To highlight one of those, you will find particular value in the get rich education YouTube channel that is me over there, video of me speaking directly to you and showing you things there visually on YouTube that I cannot do here on an audio podcast. Also, if you have a particular thought, comment, question or concern, understand, we can't personally respond to them all, but you can go ahead and write in or leave voice communication at getricheducation.com/contact we do read and listen to them all that's getricheducation.com/contact in order to reach us. And thank you so much for all of the sincere congratulations and wishes that you left over there for us on the GRE podcast, hitting 10 years of contribution to real estate investors, serving you every single week without fail and never playing any repeat episodes, always serving you with a fresh episode. Much more. Next, I'm Keith Weinhold. You're listening to get rich education.

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Robert Helms 13:57

Hey everybody, it's Robert Helms of the real estate guys radio program. So glad you found Keith Weinhold in get rich education. Don't quit your Daydream.

Keith Weinhold 14:19

Well, I'd like to welcome in a GRE investment coach. He's got both the formal credentials, and he's doing the real thing too, holding a master's degree from Duke's business school, and then, before coming to GRE in 2021 he worked at both banks and financial publishing companies, but importantly, for years now, he's been an active real estate investor, just like you and I. Hey, welcome back onto the show. Naresh Vissa.

Naresh Vissa 14:45

Thanks so much for having me back on looking forward to talking real estate. There's a lot going on for sure.

Keith Weinhold 14:51

You know, I always give you an illustrious bio to live up to before you speak, but then you do always live up to it. Well, Naresh. Before we narrow down, let's pull back and take a wide angle view. Give us your take on the direction or trends. What's important in today's market for real estate investors?

Naresh Vissa 15:11

Keith, the market has changed a lot, and it's very much investor friendly right now. The reason is because, and we've talked about this, I think, in my last two or three episodes where we previous saw rising interest rates and stagnant interest rates that were relatively high for let's say a millennial. That's been a hot topic called millennials aren't able to afford home buying what we're seeing now because the Federal Reserve cut interest rates tremendously, significantly and almost unexpected. The First Cut they did was 50 basis points, which I think was a mistake, just like I think it was a mistake for them not to raise rates one more time last year, in 2023 one or two more times to help bring inflation down further, I think they're making a mistake by jumping the gun, and instead of a 25 BPS cut as the first cut, doing a 50 BPS cut. The reason why I bring this up is because mortgage rates are plummeting. They have plummeted, and they continue to plummet. So as a home buyer, where the economy still isn't we're not at peak employment. In fact, the unemployment rate is still in the fours, so the economy isn't the greatest which means home values aren't at peak levels. Per se, some people are making the case that we could see home values could be coming down while interest rates come down. So right now, what that means is, when you have falling interest rates and either stagnant home values or maybe even some declining real estate values in some areas of the country, that markets that we focus on other markets we don't focus on, when you combine all that, this is that inflection point where it's actually a really, really good time to jump in. There is a little bit of political uncertainty in that we don't know who's going to win the election. We don't know who's going to win Congress. What's even more important than who becomes president is Congress. Which party wins the house, which party wins the Senate? Because you've written about it in your newsletter, Keith, the Democrats and the Republicans have very different housing policies, and we could do an entire episode on each party and what their housing policy is. I will keep it simple. Here's the cliff note version. If we have the same party in all the chambers of the government the same political party, then we'll see a tremendous impact in the real estate market. I think if the Democrats sweep then you're going to see real estate home values go back up, inflation go back up. Because Kamala Harris is, she is a main proponent of giving basically a $25,000 off coupon to first time homebuyers. So that's across the board all 50 states. Basically you got $25,000 off. What I've learned with coupons, I'm sure you know this, Keith, most coupons actually are a terrible deal. You get something in the mail that's a coupon. You either spend it or you call the service provider and they jack up the price. So you think you're getting a good deal, but they end up jacking up the price even more than what market value is, and that's what's going to happen to housing where you're going to have so many young like I said, millennials, Gen Zers, who are looking to buy their first home, they think they're getting such a great deal because of this $25,000 off coupon, when, in reality, after about three months of this program, you're going to see we're going to be back to 2021, end of 2021, beginning of 2022, all over again, where homes will enter into bidding wars. Now, if there's a split, President is one party and Congress has split, then there's actually going to be almost no change, which could be a good thing. We're not going to see much change at all. It's just going to be the mostly the status quo. Really the only change is going to be on tariffs, If Trump were to win, or foreign policy, those are going to be the two main issues, regardless of which party wins, if there's a split. So the bottom line is that right now, despite this uncertainty, I've heard from a lot of GRE clients, oh, I don't want to do anything because of this election. I've asked for the logic and like, the election, should it really change? Because right now is still an excellent time, like I said, with stagnant home values with plummeting interest rates, really through the end of the year, and as the Fed keeps cutting rates, which I think they're going to engage in a prolonged rate cut cycle for quite a while, and rates are only going to keep going down. So that's my general view of the current state of mortgage rates, the Federal risk. Reserve the election housing markets?

Keith Weinhold 20:03

Yes, Naresh is talking about a newsletter that I sent to you last month where I basically show that, historically, presidential elections really don't affect the real estate market price appreciation much at all. They might affect stocks in the short term, though, which are more volatile and Naresh, do you want to tell me a bit more about why you seem to be rather bullish this year for real estate investors, of course, things change. Last year you were more bearish. You had more negative sentiment about the investor environment. So are there any other reasons why you see more positivity today, other than lower interest rates?

Naresh Vissa 20:37

Yeah. Well, last year, like I said, where I touched on, we saw peak interest rates. So the Fed stopped raising around the end of last summer. I want to say maybe July of 2023 it was, yes, the interest rates stayed high. There was almost no movement until relatively recently, let's say over the last three months, when it was factored into the market that the Fed was going to begin its rate cutting cycle. So the reason why I don't want to say I was bearish on real estate last year, because we have some providers, for example, partners of ours, who offered really, really good and they still are offering really, really good incentives, which help offset the high interest rates this time around, like I said, with the unemployment situation, we're in the force in more layoffs. Archive, the media isn't talking enough about layoffs, large companies, large tech companies, manufacturing jobs. Layoffs have been rampant for the past two years. This is not a recent phenomena, and it's finally showing up in the unemployment data. And if you look at real unemployment data at a website like shadow stats, it's really more than 4% and the number of people are working multiple jobs. That's not really factored into the unemployed. You know, one person working three jobs, for example, you gotta have a way to factor that in, which government hasn't figured out lately. So the point that I'm making here is that if you have a job right now, if you're making cash flow, if you have a job, then you're going to find this as an opportunity with the lower interest rates, with knowing that home values have somewhat declined recently, this is a good opportunity to jump in and get good cash flowing real estate. Now, I did touch on the previous question about Kamala Harris's real estate plan, $25,000 coupon, which will certainly lead to real estate. You can call it real estate appreciation. You can call it inflation. But one thing that I should talk about the other side, which is if Trump and the Republicans were to sweep, then we're going to see mass deportations of undocumented immigrants, illegal immigrants, and that's going to affect the housing market tremendously. And how is it going to do that? Because it's estimated that at least 8 million people are going to be deported over the four year period. Those 8 million people right now are all renters. Close to 100% of them are renters. I think that would actually be somewhat deflationary, at least in the rental market, maybe not in the housing market per se, because a lot of these people aren't necessarily home buyers, but in the rental market, we could likely see a stagnation of rental growth mixed in that's making the assumption that building picks up, and Trump has already said. Both Trump and Harris have said that they're going to incentivize home builders to build more multifamily, build more apartments, build more. In Trump's case, he did these opportunity zones, which he wants to do more of, build more single family housing. It's definitely a supply side issue more so than a demand issue, but both supply and demand always contribute to the equation as a whole. So what does all this mean? Again? Forget about the election. Forget about November 5, which is election day. Right now is a really good time, because interest rates are plummeting. Home values have remained stagnant. In some cases, home values have come down. And the best part, we work with providers who are still offering really amazing incentives. And on october 24 at 8pm we are hosting a webinar to share what I think is our best incentive program yet. That's Thursday, October 24 where you can get class, a new build of properties with interest rates in the 4's that's with that you're not even buying down the interest rate, the interest with special deals, special incentives, special financing, interest rates in the fours, up to $30,000 in immediate equity because of these incentives. And the best part, we even have an option that's zero money down, zero money down there are incentives that are giving back cash at closing. So it's, you buy a property, you as a buyer, get cash back at closing. There are just too many incentives to name here. I've named, I think, five different ones. And this is not a case of you pick one out of the five. In some cases, you might qualify for all five. So october 24 it's before the election. It's live. I'm going to be on live with a special guest who is a very well known, seasoned real estate investor and licensed real estate broker, one of the most well known real estate personalities in the country. So I highly recommend our file go to GREwebinars.com GREwebinars.com to register for that free special event.

Keith Weinhold 25:46

Now you, as a real estate investor, are probably encouraged by this environment of lower and lower interest rates as well you should be, but sometimes it can help to ask yourself the question, okay, how do lower interest rates affect who I'm purchasing a property from. In this case, with the event narration I are talking about, it's new build properties and home builders. They see more competition now coming from the resale market due to the fact that interest rates have fallen so interest rates are thawing out the locked up resale market thawing out this lock in effect, and that's because existing home sellers, well, they're a little bit more willing to sell because the replacement home no longer has an interest rate that's as high over there in the resale market, and lower rates also, of course, mean that more buyers qualify to buy resale homes. So see new home builders, they now have more competition from the resale market, so consequently they're more willing to give you a strong incentive to buy from them. So take advantage of what Naresh and I are talking about coming up in just three days here on Thursday.

Naresh Vissa 26:53

Yes, and I want to reiterate, GREwebinars.com GREwebinars.com this is a online special event. We've done several of these in the past. I've done, I think this is maybe my fifth online special event. Again, I've never seen incentives like what our provider is going to be sharing on this webinar. And you can only get these incentives by attending the webinar, or registering for the webinar, watching the replay after we're talking the rates in the 4's, they will buy down the rate for you. So it's a great deal to have somebody else buy down your rate. You'll get money back at closing if you opt for that. So that's basically a rebate that you'll be getting as the home buyer. Just really, really good overall incentives being offered. And like I said, we set this up because this is a perfect time. We are in a situation, the first time since 2020 since the pandemic, where we're seeing plummeting interest rates, stagnation of home values, kind of uncertainty, because we're in this time of purgatory, just like we were in 2020 before the election. Just think about how many investors, most real estate investors, say right now, they say, Oh, I wish I bought everything in 2020, right? Well, we're in a similar situation now, where, again, home values, interest rates, and this state of purgatory of what's going to happen. We're in a very similar situation. And just think about that emotion, because I hear it almost every day, or when I tell people, Hey, I own real estate myself, and I bought most of my properties before 2021 the last property I bought was in 2020 and they say, Oh, wow. Like, you're a genius. You're so smart. Like, how did you know to buy man and again, similar environment, even 2009 2010 2011 even 2012 similar environment where interest rates were very low. 2009 was when they were plummeting. And you think back of I was too young back then, but I know, Keith, you were an investor back then, but you bought in 2009 you did even better than buying in 2020

Keith Weinhold 29:00

That's right. And in fact, in all the years that I've been buying real estate, I have never bought a property with incentives as good as what you and your co host are going to be talking about at GRE's live event coming up on Thursday night, just starting with a full 10% of the purchase price in credit back to the buyer, and there's more to it. You'll learn all about it again on GRE 's live event for new build, turnkey income properties with zero money down potentially. It is co hosted by Naresh in the guest that I had here last week, Zach. Again, it is on Thursday, October 24 at 8pm Eastern. You can register now at GREwebinars.com and you will be hearing more from Naresh then. Naresh has been great having you back on the show.

Naresh Vissa 29:49

Thank you, Keith and I'll see everyone on october 24 GRE webinars.com to register. Thanks.

Keith Weinhold 30:01

yes, you'll hear more from Naresh and co host Zach on Thursday's live event each year, homebuyers often take a step back in the fall, this time of year. Understand though, that year over year, they are up about 4% per the NAR as of this time. And when it comes to the political effect on housing. You already know what I think. I don't put much emphasis there. Today, I am better off than I was four years ago, and it has nothing to do with who the President was or was in Congress, and in the preceding four years, I became better off during that time period too, because what happens in my house and what happens in your house is more important than what happens in the White House. As Naresh and I are talking about new build property here, and you're hearing about extremely attractive incentives. Hey, let's not let the point be lost. New build properties can be profitable for you over time due to lower maintenance costs. New builds have lower insurance premiums, and that's on top of how we discussed you could get low interest rates in in southeastern high growth path of progress markets in our upcoming live online event, and at the least, you will learn about creative deal structuring, and you know, when it comes to zero money down like that very concept, there was a time in my life where I thought, yeah, that sounds about as real as athletic brand beer, or about as real as lab grown meat, but all three actually exist. Here's what's exciting, we have partnered with major builders that are sitting on excess new build inventory right now, like Lennar and DR Horton, to help bring you institutional level pricing. Your name does not have to be BlackRock. And this is something we've never done before here at GRE these new build properties in those fast growing areas of the southeast, they're often single family rentals. And yes, you know what I like to say about single family rentals. Stainless steel appliances are great, as long as you or your tenant never touch them. But to be clear, there are two levels of incentives we've been promised. So we've got to have this event now before they vanish. You can potentially use both, first, up to a 10% credit at closing, so yes, on a 250k market value property, as much as a 25k credit and then secondly, a 5% down payment we've paired with credit unions in local markets that make Portfolio loans to investors, and that is up to five properties max. And to get that 5% down, you must qualify, just like you would for most any mortgage loan. And by the way, do you know what a portfolio loan means? That means when the bank or credit union makes the loan, it'll go sell that off to a secondary market and have it packaged into a mortgage backed security. What the bank or the credit union does is they keep that in their own portfolio. A portfolio loan does not mean that the lender makes a loan against your existing properties in your portfolio. That's what I used to think when I was a new investor, but that is a misnomer. That's not what a portfolio loan is. Well, with these incentives, if you get a 10% credit and only spend a 5% down payment plus four to 5% on closing costs, hey, there you are. You are in with zero down payment. It's a chance for you to get your fit together. Yes, what fits you is zero down right for you. I mean, you know that I am a staunch leverage proponent, but if that's not right for you, you can use your 10% cash back discount elsewhere, like buying down your mortgage rate to about 4% maybe even three point something percent. And see right here, this is exactly where the deal structuring gets fun incentives like this don't last. When the inventory is gone, it's gone show up live, and that way you can also have any of your questions answered if you have them, yes, our online event is an even bigger deal in fantasy football. Well, I trust that you learned something useful today on this week's episode of the get rich education podcast, to review, it's how tenant rent to income ratios are actually stable near 31% on why new build properties only cost about 1% more than existing properties today. And all about creative deal structuring, where you can own brand new new build income properties potentially with as little as 5% down and perhaps zero down payment. It's a really good opportunity. We sure have mentioned it before, but one last time, all the action takes place Thursday, October 24 at 8pm eastern at GREwebinars.com. Until next week, I'm your host, Keith weinhold, don't quit with your Daydream

Speaker 2 35:27

Keith Weinhold 35:55

The preceding program was brought to you by your home for wealth building Getricheducation.com.

Direct download: GREepisode524_.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 4:00am EST

Mon, 14 October 2024

Join our upcoming GRE live event right here! - ‘New Turnkey Properties with ZERO Money Down’ on Thursday 10/24.

On this week's episode, Keith shares how to vet and onboard a property manager, emphasizing the importance of their role in tenant relations and net operating income. He is also joined by our guest, seasoned investor and turnkey expert, to highlight the benefits of new construction properties with zero money down, leveraging builder incentives and portfolio loans.

Learn the key qualifications to look for in a property manager, typical management fee structures and questions to ask.

Hear about the benefits of new construction homes, including consistent income, quality tenants, and growth potential.

We discuss the potential for 10% builder credits and 5% down portfolio loans.

Show Notes:

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522: A Wealth Mindset in Real Estate Investing with Garrett Gunderson

Complete episode transcript:

Automatically Transcribed With Otter.ai

Keith Weinhold 00:01

Welcome to GRE. I'm your host. Keith Weinhold, how do you vet a property manager and maintain an onboarding relationship with them over time? I just hired one, and I'll tell you how I did it. Then there's a trend to exploit in today's real estate market, with the opportunity to place zero money down on brand new build property today on Get Rich Education.

00:27

Since 2014 the powerful get rich education podcast has created more passive income for people than nearly any other show in the world. This show teaches you how to earn strong returns from passive real estate investing in the best markets without losing your time being a flipper or landlord. Show Host Keith Weinhold writes for both Forbes and Rich Dad advisors, and delivers a new show every week since 2014 there's been millions of listener downloads of 188 world nations. He has a list show, guess who? Top Selling personal finance author Robert Kiyosaki, get rich education can be heard on every podcast platform, plus it has its own dedicated Apple and Android listener phone apps build wealth on the go with the get rich education podcast. Sign up now for the get rich education podcast, or visit get rich education.com

Corey Coates 01:12

You're listening to the show that has created more financial freedom than nearly any show in the world. This is get rich education.

Keith Weinhold 01:29

Welcome to GRE Yeah. This is get rich education, the voice of real estate investing for more than 10 years now. This is episode 523, and I'm your host, Keith Weinhold, let's talk about how to vet a property manager. After all, they are what make your real estate investment mostly passive. I recently hired a new property manager. Of course, I have one in each geographic area where I own property. Now, instead, you can self manage from a distance, but sooner or later, you probably won't feel that's the highest and best use of your time. As friend of GRE and host of the real estate guys radio show, Robert Helms says, Life is too short for property management. And you know, when it comes to managing your property, still today, you can't just have an AI do that, and to be your property manager is the most important piece of your team, because they're the ones that handle all the tenant relations, collect your rent, and They control your occupancy rate too. I think you can make the case that a property manager is even more important in larger apartment buildings than they are in, say, single family rentals up to fourplexes, and that's for a few reasons. Number one, because managers drive your net operating income your noi in apartments. Okay, so that doesn't just drive your income. That drives the very valuation of the property, since apartments are the NOI divided by the cap rate. And secondly, one bad or noisy tenant can make other apartment tenants miserable. Yet if there's one noisy single family home tenant, well others might not even know about it or hear them. So a manager is more important in large apartments than smaller units. But let's not let the point be missed. They are crucial, just vital either way. And when it comes to qualifying a property manager, you know, before you reach out to that manager, do some research on your own. First, like first, I like to see if I have any friends that use that management company, and I like to get feedback from them. Also like to read reviews and see what current investors that use that property manager say about them in forums. And you know from real world experience, if you've been an investor for any period of time, it's a little sad to say, but getting reviews that are merely adequate or average, that might be good enough. There are many places in life where I accept mediocrity, although property management is probably one of them, because it's just a tough job where that manager has to adjudicate, use their judgment and walk a line between two antagonistic parties, and those parties are you and Your tenants. So adequate is good enough. Management is just one of those industries. It's kind of like airlines always seem to get bad reviews too. If there's a rating system out there for umpires and referees, it would probably be the same users only comment when there's a problem. Well. So when vetting a property manager next, I like to know how long they've been in business. I also like to know how many properties that manager currently manages, how many units they have in their management portfolio. And with this latest manager that I just recently hired, it happened to be 325 properties. That's a good number. And this manager also happens to be one in a network of a nationwide management franchise. So there are some systems and some economies of scale that I'm getting, and there are a lot of mom and pop managers too, and they can often do a good job as well of scaling and automation. A lot of managers, for example, they leverage a software like app folio, where you as an investor, you can log in and see your investor activity and your owner draws there. So this particular new manager that I hire, they have those 325, properties that they manage. But speaking to geography, I learned that their brick and mortar presence, their main office, it's a full 45 minutes away from where I have my properties all clustered. That's not ideal to have my properties far flung from their hub, because you want your properties to get adequate attention. And you can imagine, if your properties are too far for where most of their operations are. Well, then your properties might not get enough attention, but I learned that they already have 20 properties in the immediate area of mine, and that their maintenance man also happens to live near my property, so in this case, 45 minutes from the satellite office. Although it's not ideal, it did work for me. This new manager that I hired has the tenants rent be due on the first of the month, but they have a grace period to pay until the fifth and then the owner draws. They're made around the 10th of the month and the owner draws. That means when the manager makes their payment, to me, the investor, which is after they collected all the rents, minus their management fees and maintenance expenses. All right. Well, all that stuff is pretty typical, and let me tell you now about their management fee structure. And again, this is pretty typical. And by the way, I don't try to negotiate fees with managers in most cases, maybe, unless I have an awful lot of properties with them, they have a monthly management fee of 8% now 10% that's a pretty common fee out there as well, meaning that if rent is $2,000 they take $160 each month in a management fee. That's that 8% and then additionally their leasing fee is one half month, meaning that when they screen and place a new tenant for me, they get $1,000 at that time again, on this example of a $2,000 rent, and I pay a $150 re leasing fee, meaning If they release the unit to that same tenant after, say, their first year or two lease expires, ask your manager if they do markups on maintenance bills. For example, if they subcontract a plumber, and those plumber charges are $500 over to the manager. Does a manager tack on, say, 10% to that charge and then charge you $550 or not? Preferably, the answer is no markups like that can be another profit center for property management companies. However, what this manager does is instead, they have a trip charge of $55 for when their maintenance guy visits the property, and I was okay with that. That's reasonable. Also ask your property manager, if they do regular inspections of your properties, that means that they physically go inside the unit from time to time to confirm that everything is on right, that your tenant is trading a property with respect and that there aren't any deferred maintenance items cropping up, like delaminated flooring or some kind of water leak that needs attention. And this particular manager that I just decided to hire, they charge $75 a year for two of these annual inspections, so they physically go inside the unit every six months for a comprehensive check, which is a really good idea. And I love that they do that. Another tactic that I take when vetting a property manager is to ask them, you know, just a detailed question or two, really feel out their operations. It can be a good idea for you to do something like this. For example, I told this new manager that you know, in the past with other management companies or ones I still use, you know, I've seen managers they try to charge me for clearing a clogged sink drain. Well, I've let managers know I shouldn't. Not be seeing charges like that at all. In almost every instance, clearing clogs that should be charged to the tenant, not me. I mean, obstructions don't float up from water and septic systems. So in most cases, that is what's happening. So you know, the tenant is at fault for getting something clogged in there in almost every case. Now, one exception might be that, I don't know, tree roots encroach on plumbing or something like that. Okay? But the point is, when you ask about something like that, you're showing your property manager that you're savvy and you can't be taken advantage of. Okay? They have got to be the ones that pushes back on the tenant, sometimes not pushing on you every time, just because they feel like you're the one that can afford the expense more than the tenant. So that sets some expectations for the ongoing relationship. Also talk to your property manager about your communication preferences over time. Now, for me personally, I don't want an intrusive text message unless it's something that's pretty urgent. I prefer email communication, and the manager does not need to email me every time they need approval of expenses less than, say, $300 now, when you get more faith in your manager later, you might want to bump that number up to $500 or whatever your number is. Now, at times I do like to call my property manager on the phone. Sometimes you'll just get more information from them. This way, a better feel when I called a different property manager that I currently have, you know, one thing that they mentioned to be on the phone, they were like, oh, Keith, I've been meaning to call you. You've had a vacant unit for weeks, and we should probably lower the asking rent 50 to $100 All right. Well, I agree that we should do that, but I feel like the vacancy would have lingered longer at the higher asking rent had I not called. So really, this is the sort of light touch that you should give your properties over time, and it's the reason that why, even with professional property management, it's not completely passive. Instead, it's a little contact. And I also like to tell my property manager that I have mortgages on my properties. I have every property mortgaged, and always have. You can choose to have your manager pay your mortgage for you, or you can pay it yourself, and that's a bit about vetting and managing your property manager. And I hope some of those ideas go a long way toward helping you, really, they're the frameworks about what's important and establishing expectations with them. Up front this week a great guest and I will discuss trends in today's real estate investment market, and then we'll tell you about an event that you can join and how to specifically exploit an especially promising real estate opportunity that I have never seen before. That's next. I'm Keith Weinhold. You're listening to get rich education. Hey, you can get your mortgage loans at the same place where I get mine, at Ridge lending group NMLS, 420056, they provided our listeners with more loans than any provider in the entire nation, because they specialize in income properties, they help you build a long term plan for growing your real estate empire with leverage. You can start your pre qualification and chat with President Caeli Ridge personally. Start Now while it's on your mind at Ridgelendinggroup.com that's Ridgelendinggroup.com. Your bank is getting rich off of you. The national average bank account pays less than 1% on your savings. If your money isn't making 4% you're losing your hard earned cash to inflation. Let the liquidity fund to help you put your money to work with minimum risk, your cash generates up to an 8% return with compound interest, year in and year out. Instead of earning less than 1% sitting in your bank account, the minimum investment is just 25k you keep getting paid until you decide you want your money back. Their decade plus track record proves they've always paid their investors 100% in full and on time. And I would know, because I'm an investor too. Earn 8% hundreds of others are text FAMILY to 66866, learn more about freedom. Family investments, liquidity fund on your journey to financial freedom through passive income. Text FAMILY to 66866.

Rick Sharga 14:46

this is Rick Sharga, a housing market intelligence analyst. Listen to get rich education with Keith Weinhold and don't quit your Daydream.

Keith Weinhold 15:11

This week, we've got the privilege of hearing from a seasoned real estate investor. He himself is in single family, multifamily and commercial. He's also a licensed optometrist, and he practices on a volunteer basis, giving away his time and expertise there. In fact, he started investing in real estate while working as an optometrist and captain for the US Air Force, and that on the side, real estate investing allowed him to retire early from medicine, and today, he's an industry expert in real estate market analytics and how to use real estate as a means to create the lifestyle that you, the listener, desire for your family. Hey, welcome to GRE Zach Lemaster.

Zack Lemaster 15:54

Thanks so much for having me on again. It's good to be back, and always a pleasure to you know, talk real estate, I learn a lot from you in the content you put out. So I'm a big fan, and I appreciate you having me on.

Keith Weinhold 16:06

Well, thanks for saying that will. I'm sure we're going to learn from you today too. You've got such a great take and feel for the pulse of the residential real estate market. Tell us about your take, whether that's price, direction, rents, occupancy rates, supply, interest rates, demographics, whatever you think is important, tell us about what a real estate investor really needs to know in this era, Zach.

Zack Lemaster 16:30

man, and this could probably be a whole day conversation, Keith, I think you've done an excellent job covering this every time you put out information, so we won't belabor the point. But I guess my general take is that, you know, we're moving into a section in the the market cycle, I believe, where we'll probably start to see a little bit more of a normalization of a real estate market. I mean, it's just been so strange, right, to pull data points over the past two years, and actually, really four or five years of like, there's really some unique things happening, and there's a lot of people that have projections around how housing prices are changing and things like that. The only really thing, I think the big takeaway from the past two years is that home sales have plundered it. People talk about real estate crashes, real estate prices really didn't change that so much. And actually in a lot of the markets, like where we focused on they went up because, you know, supply and demand. These are areas where there's a huge discrepancy and there's an undersupply of housing, and those are kind of the areas you want to be in the path of progress. But one thing that we did see over the past few years is that there's a plummet in home sales, and that's both with less buyers because of the interest rates and less sellers holding on to their low interest rates. People are less likely to move in those scenarios. So I think we're going to see more of that as we start to see interest rates coming down over time, and we'll probably see more inventory hit the market, but also a new influx of buyers. So I don't know if there's going to be much of a change in terms of pricing, but generally speaking, I think there's from the investor side. A lot of what we talk about is retail, but with the investor mindset, which is your audience, I think what we will likely see is that there's probably a lot of people that were sitting on the sidelines that will jump into the market. There's going to be more buyer competition, of course, that drives prices. And one thing we know for a fact that we'll dive in deeper today about Keith, is that there are builders, because a lot of what we do is in the new construction, build to rent industry. And we could talk about why that is, but that's just a solid asset class to maintain consistent income, quality, tenants, growth and potential in both home appreciation and rents. But I think what we're likely to see is that over the past year, there's been a lot of builders giving out these crazy incentives because they've had excess inventory and they've had a slowdown on the retail sales, and it's been a really unique opportunity for investors to come in acquire good assets at with these crazy incentives of below market pricing, which we'll talk about, that is likely going to disappear over time, as they move more into the retail sales, and those channels start to open up more because there's more buyers and so in the niche that we work in, that's kind of the takeaway that I think is developing, really over the next, you know, A few months here.

Keith Weinhold 19:00

yes, this reduction in sales volume that we've had like you touched on which lower interest rates could help thaw. Almost everyone agrees that interest rates are going to fall more slowly than they spiked in rows in 2022 and you know what's funny, Zach, I can be in the front of a room talking about the condition of the economy in the real estate market, and I can say to the audience act, I can say, if you think there's uncertainty right now, a substantial amount of uncertainty, raise your hand. Adversely. Everyone raises their hand. But you know what? They did the same thing two years ago, and they did the same thing five years ago. So my point is, yeah, investors invest through the uncertainty. Because uncertainty always exists. It just shifts around as to where the uncertainty is. The listener might be trying to validate sort of one thing in their mind and get it to balance out right now. Zach, when we talk about this lowering of sales volume, and you mentioned builders that are sitting on some inventory yet we have a lack. Of supply. Can you balance that out for us and tell us how that is that some builders have inventory that they're sitting on that's supply, and yet we have an overall lack of supply.

Zack Lemaster 20:10

yeah, and I think the other key piece into that is lack of affordability, right? And so all those things kind of play together, just to tie up your last point. There's always uncertainty in real estate, but there's also the fundamentals of real estate. Keith, you know, this is a long time investor, investing all across the country, as long as you stay focused on the fundamentals, which, at the end of the day, is really investing in good locations with good teams, where you have positive cash flow, right? And you likely have a positive outlook from an economic standpoint for that market, to keep the house rent in to keep rents going up. Like that's really all there is to this to be successful long term that can exist in any market cycle. So I just encourage people to stay focused on that. But ultimately, your question about inventory supply, we talked about big things of like lack of inventory. I mean, we have a deficit of I think the last stat I saw was seven and a half million houses, you know, deficit or something like that, but that's really on the global economic picture for the US, right when we break it down to the kind of the micro economic scale with each individual regional market, because we work with regional builders as well as national builders, and we're also builder. We also put up our own houses as well to a somewhat small scale, but a lot of those builders started the houses that are now completed, you know, at this point, sometimes six months ago, more likely 12 to 18 months ago. And they had anticipation as the Fed was talking about interest rates lowering, you know, they maybe were planning an X amount of sales for those exact houses. However, from the retail standpoint, there really hasn't been that movement. So we still have a lack of homes that we need, but we also have a lack of people that can buy those houses, because there's a lack of affordability, right? And all these builders also have X amount of houses that they sell to institutional buyers, the blackrocks and some of these buyers that will come in in and we'll talk about why that's relevant to us and how we've pioneered our way into operating like one of those for the individual investor and bringing those same buying incentives to the everyday investor. But there's also been a large decrease on investor activity from an institutional level buying. So just because we have a reduction in inventory and we have a low supply does not necessarily mean that we're just gonna, you know, builders can just sell all their homes because of that. There's a lot that plays into that, and you need to look at each geographic market. But ultimately, if you're looking at the fundamentals of investing in real estate, where you can still be, and we try to be below the meeting house price point, below that $400,000 price point, again, that's where we have the largest demographic big affordability issues right now. I think that's a safe place to be, right? Because you don't see the fluctuations that you do on the more expensive homes, the more expensive markets. I think you have the large, large demographics for both renters and retail buyers, and you also have more runway, right? More runway for prices to go up. So that's kind of our the niche area that we're when I'm talking about excess supply. That's the area that we're really focusing on.

Keith Weinhold 23:03

Oh, that was beautifully explained in how to tie that supply story together there. Zach, of course, there are so many ways to divide up the real estate market, one of those being that price tier. And typically for us as cash flow real estate investors, we look at a single family home. Yeah, it's going to be under 400k in order to generate income, I have an announcement to make here to you the listener on Thursday, October 24 one of our GRE investment coaches, along with Zach here, are co hosting GRE 's live event for new build turnkey income properties with zero money down. Yes, I'm stealing some of your thunder there. Zach, zero money down. Registration is now open at GREwebinars.com and the momentum has been building for this event that you can attend from the comfort of your own home. Tell us about what you'll be covering at our live event. Zach.

Zack Lemaster 23:58

yeah, and I'm very excited to do that. Keith, I appreciate you having me. Han, again, I think all the investors, if you're interested in new construction or just creative finance and some ways to make some unique deals happen, like you have to attend this webinar just to at least learn. First, we'll talk about different markets right now where we see the best opportunity. So if nothing else, you learn about some of the best markets to invest in. But really what we're going to unveil is how someone, regardless of where you live, geographically or your investing experience, how you can make a creative deal happen on a turnkey deal that you can get below market value and possibly buy with zero money down, or at least have a good portion of your down payment cover to really skyrocket your ROI. So this is a scenario, Keith, we really get to have your cake and eat it too, because you get a brand new constructed house. It's turnkey, where everything is done for you in a great market that has appreciation book on rents and prices. But you can also buy it with low to no money down and really be a creative investor. And I know that we're going to talk about all the details with that.

Keith Weinhold 24:58

Yes, let's talk more about. Out the potential for zero money down here. I mean, I think that's the most compelling value proposition with what we're doing next Thursday.

Zack Lemaster 25:08

sure. So we'll just go through a numeric example so people can kind of wrap their head around like what this entails. We already set the stage for you know why builders may have excess inventory. And what we do with our business is we partner with both regional and national builders, some of the largest national builders as well as as I mentioned, we build our own homes as well, but we partner with some of these national builders that have excess inventory in markets that we know are productive investment opportunities. A lot of these happen to be in the southeast, because that's where the population is growing, and we're seeing that's where favorable landlord legislation is and federal taxes and growth potential, all the things right, positive cash flow, but we focus on those areas. And we can go to these national builders, because as a group, you know, we buy hundreds of houses every single year, and we can basically approach them like an institutional buyer and say, we want the same access to those wholesale deals that you would sell to BlackRock, but we want that for ourselves, and we can pass that on to the individual investor. That's kind of the value add. But specifically, what we're talking about is a scenario where some of these builders will offer up to a 10% credit at closing. That is huge. And just to I mean, for someone that is just new, the real estate game is kind of learning about this is I've been investing personally for 15 years now, I've never seen things like this in any market cycle that's through multiple different market cycles, but I've never seen anything this attractive. So this is not normal. I want to say that's to start. But essentially, you can get up to 10% of a credit on a house that you can use however you want to. And so there's a few different ways that you can use this key. So if you're buying a $300,000 turnkey new construction home, you could, in theory, get $30,000 off and buy that at 270 of $30,000 of immediate equity. That might be a good strategy if you're looking to lower the mortgage payment on that or if you're looking to, say, refinance that property or sell it quicker, you have that immediate equity in that house, right? The other thing you could do with that 10% is you could use it to buy your interest rate down we have and that will get you below 4% you could literally buy your rates down into 3% with that much, if you want to put that much money into it, it'll cover your closing costs and buy the rate down significantly. So no matter what the Fed lowers, the rate to you are back actually down to one, 821, rates by buying your way there with that huge credit that obviously causes, you know, cash flow to skyrocket near ROI, to go way up. The third option that you can do is you can actually take that money, just get it back as a credit at closing. So if you're buying a house, say a $300,000 house, you're putting 20% down, which would be $60,000 on that house, you get $30,000 immediately back. That means you're into the house for 10% or half your down payment. That also skyrockets your ROI. So the point is, is there's a lot of creative things that you can do with these type of exciting credits, and they vary between five to 10% based on inventory, but they go up to 10% on some of these new construction inventory options. One last thing here, Keith, and this is hopefully I haven't lost anyone, but this is where things get really creative. As a company, we also work with different lenders throughout the country to bring the best financing options to investors. And we have a group of credit unions. They're all local to that geographic area that have Portfolio loans. Meaning these are not Fannie, Mae, Freddie Mac loans. These are loans they hold in house. These are true investor loans. You still have to qualify for them, but if you qualify, you can put as little as 5% down, meaning the they will finance up to 95% of your property. We have tons of investors doing this consistently, and you can do this on up to five properties, five investment properties, if you qualify. And so that means, in theory, you could buy a brand new construction house with a 5% down loan. You get a 10% credit back at closing that covers your down payment, your closing costs, and likely puts money back in your pocket. So that's not only buying a new construction, turnkey house with no money down it's actually getting paid to do so now there's a lot of economics to understand and cash flow, you know, with a high leverage and things like that, but that's a concept, and it's very exciting.

Keith Weinhold 29:09

Yes, that last option that you mentioned seems to be the most compelling. I know. You've got investors that are learning about this and have already taken advantage of that, and again, that last option is getting the 10% credit that you're getting from the builder, coupling that with a 5% down portfolio loan from a local lender, which effectively would give you 5% cash back at the closing table. However, your closing cost of prepaids might be something like 4% so really, in a best case scenario, not only are you zero money down, you're getting about 1% of the purchase price, or $3,000 in this example back at the closing table. Now, of course that's going to affect your cash flow, but you got to think about what's important to you. So when one thinks about what's important to them, as an investor, with some of those options that you laid out there, Zach, I really highlighted the last one. What are some of the trade offs, the pros and cons of choosing these different incentives that the builders are getting right now?

Zack Lemaster 30:05

I'm so glad you asked this, Keith, because someone could be very excited about the idea of no money down, but that may not actually be the most strategic benefit to them. The nice thing is that there's so much incentive to buy right now with these type of, you know, kickbacks, these these incentives that, like you can structure a deal that's specific to you in your goals. But I would really encourage the audience to understand what is your exit strategy, or what is the next three to five years? Why are you buying this property, and how to strategically apply that? And if you don't know, if you need some guidance through that, let us help you kind of understand the different scenarios, but I want to work backwards first and mention one more thing, the no money down option would be really attractive because cash flow is going to be limited. In that scenario, you still have a loan that's covering 95% of the house, right? You would expect it, and you don't have to only put 5% down, right? You can put six, 7% down. So it's, you know, maybe break even cash flow. It's up to you. But the investors that really like that option, including myself, is the people that want to grow and scale their portfolio and stretch their capital the furthest. They maybe don't care so much about cash flow right now at this moment, they know that cash flow will increase over time. But if you're someone who really takes advantage of the tax benefits of real estate, this is way to, like, honestly, without any money out of your pocket, just taking some action, you can create this huge tax benefit, right? Because if you're buying five properties with virtually no money down, and let's say those are each $200,000 properties, you could essentially buy a million dollars worth of real estate that you own and control 100% of and you get the huge, immense tax benefit. So if you're doing things like Cost Segregation studies, like we do, you can create hundreds of 1000s of dollars of tax deductions without any money out of your pocket, just being strategic this way. But let's talk about some of these other options, because that was a real question. Where would it make sense for people? So again, if you say that 10% on a $300,000 house, that's 30k if you wanted to take that as a price reduction right out of the gates, that would obviously lower your mortgage, that's going to lower the mortgage payment amount to allow you to cash flow more. But I think the real the strategy, or the play there, is that you have built in equity in a house. This means that if your plan is to maybe put a HELOC on the house, do a cash out refinance in a few short years, as that House continues to appreciate again, because it's in a growth market, you're just going to cut that time in half because you have built in equity or if you plan to sell it. I mean, there are some scenarios where you could turn around and almost like, flip this in theory. You could do it. If you really run the economics, they want to be hugely profitable. But theory could be profitable if you sold the house with, you know, even immediately, because these builders are still selling these houses at retail, setting comps at full market value. So if you have 10% and you're paying a realtor 5% commission, they're still closing costs. But you could, you know, net some capital, but better scenarios, probably, if you're holding it for two or three years again, letting it continue to appreciate, your option is to sell it, then you're into capital gains, or again, 1031 exchange it. You know that might be good option to have built in equity. Or if this is going to be a long term hold for you, and you're just like, I love this area where I'm investing, I want to maximize cash flow. I want to have a long term loan that has a really low interest rate, then actually applying the majority of that capital to buy your rate down. That's going to obviously maximize cash flow, and that's also going to lock you in on a 30 year fixed loan at a really low rate, maybe you want to buy the rate down. So that's really the two options. We see most investors either taking the capital back and using the zero money down option, or buying the rate down, because that's going to allow them to really cash flow well, and they're just going to hold that property for a long period of time and let real estate do what it does. Those are kind of the different scenarios. I think that makes sense for different investors and understanding where to apply this incentive. Sure, if you go for a high loan, to value loan at 95% or even 100% you really then pursue the infinite return strategy, have maximum leverage, or complete leverage in the property, have all the inflation profiting benefits magnified because you're borrowing more, but that scenario is going to reduce your cash flow. So it's all about what's important to you as a real estate investor, was that before you go, just tell us a little bit more. I think the listener is going to learn more on next Thursday's webinar, but just give us a bit more on property types, whatever else one might want to know. certainly. So this is mainly in the southeast, okay, so these would be markets like Texas, Alabama, Carolinas, Florida. We have some stuff in Tennessee, but, I mean, this is really the growth markets right where we have landlord friendly legislation, low taxes, we have affordability, but we have huge population trends moving to these areas. Those are the areas we want to be. Those are the areas where builders are building in because supply and demand. Those are areas where we're positioned for strong growth over time. Overall, our average rental increase is 6% year per year, and that's going back on data over the past decade. He's really good then, yeah, usually double national average there. So those are because we're specifically positioning ourselves in areas where. Where there's increase in rental demand and in population and economic growth, average home prices. I mean, we have new construction homes as low as 200,000 by the way. Side caveat, we also have some rehab homes that are in that 131 50 range that you can still use the low money down. Those don't have as high up incentives as the new construction do. But average price for new construction, two to 300,000 give or take. I mean, just buying them, if we're buying them with a conventional loan, with 20% down, you know, you're still looking at eight to 12% cash on cash returns. Let's just talk about the cash flow. So they're really good properties that cash flow well, which is hard to find today, and they're in good locations. I think that's really the main point I want to drive home as we finish up here is, these are single family residencies in good locations. You guys, I've invested, as you mentioned, in the nice century gave me, I mean, real estate allowed my wife and I to retire from our career paths as optometrist through investing. That did not happen overnight, but it did happen over a period of time, and it did take a lifetime, either, though, that's the thing I want to mention, over a short few years of intentional, dedicated investing, we learned that really focusing on growth markets and new construction houses allow for the best quality tenants, the most predictable returns and the best growth and rents and appreciation of the houses over time. To build equity, those are the kind of assets that we want to hold long term and will help you build wealth in a short period of time. So that's kind of been the direction of our business model. Is focusing on quality inventory in good locations with good teams that still have cash, good cash flow. But you mix in some of these incentives, Keith, and it's just like, it's a no brainer. And I do think this is the biggest thing, is sense of urgency here. This is unlimited inventory. This is not something that's normal, as I mentioned, and this buying opportunity that we're so excited about is not going to last forever, as we started this conversation, talking about the market shifting as interest rates continue to come down over time, that will continue to bring more buyers into the market and just less motivation from builders to offer these incentives. So guys, now is the time to take action and make really good investments now that will set you up for success for many years.

Keith Weinhold 37:03

The time is now. This is one of the best deals I've really learned about here in the recent past at all this could be of any benefit to it all. You really want to jump in on this, because, like Zach said, this won't last forever. Well, Zach, before I ask you for your closing thoughts again, for you to listen or be sure to sign up for GRE 's live event. This is for new build, turnkey income properties, potentially with zero money down. It is Thursday, October 24 at 8pm Eastern. Register at GREwebinars.com any last thoughts? Zach

Zack Lemaster 37:03

Keith, I just appreciate all the information you're putting out there, we are all thrilled about real estate as an asset class. It's been an interesting past few years. But again, just going back to the fundamentals, guys invest in good properties and good locations with good teams. And I promise you, if you do that consistently over time, you will reach financial independence or whatever financial goals you are striving to achieve. There's more millionaires or main real estate than the other asset class, and it's the most predictable Path to Wealth. There's no secret about that, but it does take consistency in any market cycle. So Keith, thanks so much again for having me on.

Keith Weinhold 38:12

Oh, those are great parting words, and you the listener, are going to get to talk more with Zach and one of our investment coaches. Next Thursday, it is live at the end, you will have a chance to have your questions answered in real time, in case you want to talk to Zach more. Hey, it's been great having you here. There's something in the market cycle there that we can really take advantage of. Builders have some excess inventory and see the money that they have tied up in them is something that they're paying a fairly high interest rate on to. And we have now partnered with some of the biggest builders, Lennar DR Horton and others, to get you this institutional grade buying power buying at scale for lower prices and better incentives, like Zach and I said, new builds in the southeastern US for purchase prices of 200 to 300k offering you up to a 10% credit at closing. So in a 300k rental single family home, you can then use as much as 30k and choose what you want to do with that. You could buy your interest rate down to 3% that's probably better if you're going to hold it long term or use on your closing costs and have some to use toward your interest rate. Or alternatively, you could just take it as a price reduction. A 300k property is now 270k maybe you can even enjoy the discount and sell it in the next, say, two to three years for a profit. You're likely not going to be immensely profitable that way, but you don't know what the market will do over time. All right, so it'll typically be a five to 10% credit, and that depends on the property that you seek here. All right, so that is the builder credit bucket there. And then, in addition to that, if you qualify, you have some good, say, credit and assets where you can get a financing option through local credit unions, and that is local to the area that your property is in that will extend you a portfolio loan. If you qualify, you'll learn about how to do this. And this means you could put as little as 5% down, and you can do that on up to five investment properties. Okay, so with those buckets, or those two incentives combined, you could then get a 5% down loan with a 10% builder credit so that 5% bank could cover your closing costs and even just put a little money in your pocket. You should sort of think of all of that as a best case scenario. You might be pretty excited about no money down, and you probably should, but, you know, attend the event and weigh the pros and cons and see if that is the right avenue for you. A lot of it comes down to what do you want to optimize your cash flow or your leveraged equity? This is an action taking time for you to get a good chance at being set up for financial success for years. I mean, it is opportunities just like this. I mean, you learn about these concepts on the benefits of real estate investing here on the show. And now here's something really tangible where you can get ahead. I mean, personally, for me as an investor, I've never had an opportunity like what we're talking about here. Before. If you so desire, you can own new build property and learn how to get it tied up at the event. Make sure to sign up and put it on your calendar. That is next Thursday, the 24th from the comfort of your own home, GRE 's live online event for new build properties in growth markets, potentially with zero money down. It is free to register, and as of now, there are spots available at GREwebinars.com Until next week, I'm your host. Keith Weinhold, don't quit your Daydream.

42:10

Keith Weinhold 42:38

The preceding program was brought to you by your home for wealth, building, get richeducation.com.

Direct download: GREepisode523_.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 4:00am EST

Mon, 7 October 2024

Firebrand speaker and author of “Killing Sacred Cows”, Garrett Gunderson, joins us to discuss wealth mindset and value creation. Also, Keith touches on the impact of falling interest rates on various loans and the economy noting that lower rates can benefit savers and investors.

Historical data shows that home prices have only fallen 6 times in the last 83 years, signaling the rarity of significant price declines.

Learn about the Rockefeller method, which involves using trusts and whole life insurance to preserve and grow wealth.

Garrett advocates for investing in real estate, businesses, and intellectual property rather than mutual funds or ETFs.

DM Garrett on Instagram to receive a free copy of his book on the Rockefeller method.

Resources:

GarrettGunderson.com or

Alon Instagram @garrettbgunderson

Join our upcoming GRE live event right here! - ‘New Turnkey Properties with ZERO Money Down’ on Thursday 10/24.

Show Notes:

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521: Terrible Predictions, "End the Fed" and Capitalism with Mises Institute President Dr. Thomas DiLorenzo

Complete episode transcript:

Automatically Transcribed With Otter.ai

Keith Weinhold 00:01

Welcome to GRE. I'm your host. Keith Weinhold, talking about what falling interest rates really mean to you. 10 years of the GRE podcast, politics are overrated. How often do home prices fall? The latest in AI generated podcasting and then wealth mindset and wealth preservation all today on get rich education.

00:27

Since 2014 the powerful get rich education podcast has created more passive income for people than nearly any other show in the world. This show teaches you how to earn strong returns from passive real estate investing in the best markets without losing your time being a flipper or landlord. Show Host Keith Weinhold writes for both Forbes and Rich Dad advisors, and delivers a new show every week since 2014 there's been millions of listener downloads of 188 world nations. He has a list show guests and key top selling personal finance author Robert Kiyosaki, get rich education can be heard on every podcast platform, plus it has its own dedicated Apple and Android listener phone apps build wealth on the go with the get rich education podcast. Sign up now for the get rich education podcast, or visit get rich education.com

Corey Coates 01:12

You're listening to the show that has created more financial freedom than nearly any show in the world. This is get rich education.

Keith Weinhold 01:28

Welcome to GRE from Evansville, Indiana to Victorville, California and across 488 nations worldwide for an entire decade of your life now, this is Get Rich Education. I'm your host. Keith Weinhold, what does it mean that we're in an era of falling interest rates from the recent peaks, rates of all types have fallen. Mortgage rates have fallen. The Fed funds rate has fallen, and that prime rate has fallen too. I mean the prime rate that you pay, that's basically the Fed funds rate plus 3% and why the prime rate matters to you is that can affect credit cards, home equity loans, automobile loans and small business loans, every one of them down, down, down. So to any savvy investor that knows what's going on in the 21st century? This can mean celebration for your wallet, for your finances. And look in old days, lower rates, that would be bad news, not good news. And why is this? Well, in olden days, and some people still have an outdated mindset, lower rates are bad because savings accounts used to make sense back in the day, and lower interest rates means lower rates for savers on their bank, savings accounts. Yeah, those 5% online only savings accounts are going to four and a half with the Fed's half point rate cut last month. Well, 100 years ago, you could be a saver. That made some sense, because their interest rates could reliably beat inflation over time, but not today. Today, since inflation transfers wealth from lenders to borrowers and inflation redistributes wealth from savers to debtors. For those like us that understand this and act accordingly, we are indeed the beneficiaries of lower interest rates. Now, there are other effects out there in the economy. Cheaper loans could lead to more m&a activity, more mergers and acquisitions that can benefit investment banks like your Goldman Sachs that facilitates those transactions. Well, what happens to real estate prices amidst lower interest rates? What happens is that they tend to rise now here on the show, you remember that since 2022 I have discussed what has surprised a lot of people. Amidst rising interest rates, the environment that we used to have, home prices tend to rise. And it has happened again. When mortgage rates tripled, prices kept right on rising. So you might wonder, well, wait a second, which is it or I'm confused, amidst rising interest rates, home prices rise and amidst falling interest rates, home prices rise too. And the answer is yes, look at history over hunches. To our newsletter readers, I recently sent you that great chart, a table, I guess it showed the national home price, rate of appreciation or depreciation for every single year, going back to World War Two and from 1942 until today, those 83 years, how many times do you think that home prices fell over the last 83 years? There were exactly six, six of the last 83 years, only six where home prices fell. Paradoxically, interest rates don't have much to do with home prices, and this is all per Case Shiller statistics. Over the last 83 years, there were only six down years. 72 were up. Five were even. And of those six down years in the last 83 five of the six down years were tied up in a once. I mean, it took a once in several generations confluence, a cataclysm of events to occur during the global financial crisis, 2007 to 2011 all at once. Back then, it was a housing supply, surplus, disgustingly lawless mortgage market, cheap credit and a preponderance of debt in the banking system since World War 2, 83 years ago, there was only one other year when home prices fell, that was 1990 when they fell by 1%. If you're waiting for Home prices to fall substantially, it is super unlikely that that is going to happen. Just look at history, and today's market has more than the housing shortage in loads of protective homeowner equity, which means low delinquency rates, and we have permanently inflated higher prices baked into replacement costs of all kinds, land, architecture, engineering, permitting, regulation, labor, building, equipment, construction materials all over the place, but us, you know, as real estate investors, we might be more interested in rent appreciation than prices just four years ago, you know, just then to pay $2,000 to rent a single family home. I mean, that was quite a nice place in the Midwest and South. And today I have modest single family rentals built 50 years ago that are about 1200 square feet, and now they rent for $2,000 $2,000 a month's rent that is common today, and we are rooting for rents to appreciate faster than home prices. And if you want to get our newsletter, you're probably on that list by now, and reading it, I just send some of the best charts in real estate maps to you. You can sign up free right now. Just do it while it's on your mind. Text GRE to 66866, that's text GRE to 66866, for our Don't quit your Daydream Letter. Political season is heating up. We are at a time where we are one month from a general election, and that means we're electing a new president, vice president, 1/3 of the Senate, the entire house of representatives and various state and local officials. Yes, politics matter. Politics affect real estate. So why don't I discuss this more here on the show. Well, I explained that to you a while ago. It gets divisive, and it rarely affects people as much as they think. And as you know, I avoid even using words like Democrat, Republican, left, right, conservative and liberal. And why do I do that? Because they are divisive terms. The problem isn't so much politics. It's when people get infected with the partisan mind virus. Yes, they put party over country. For example, a partisan political instigator will swear to god that the economy is great now, but as soon as, say, a different party wins an election, even if the economy is the same, although now say that that same economy is awful. In fact, a couple years ago, I quit my job as a writer for a publication that you've heard of before. I no longer contribute to them. They put party before country, in my opinion, I wrote an article for them about two years ago, and my article made it sound like an eminent recession was a question, not a foregone conclusion. Well, the editor let me know that their consensus of writers feels like a recession is eminent and that I need to change my article to reflect that that's because they don't like the administration that's in power, so I quit rather than edit my article. I mean, if you just ask an American the question, this question, do you wish that America were less divided? Well. Any sane person would answer that question, yes. Well, then why would you go attach divisive labels to the other side and attack them? It makes no sense. That's where the division comes from. So really, it ought to be about solutions and ideologies and not political parties. So this is another reason why, during political season, I don't play those games, and we stick to investing the economy and wealth mindset. I mean, virtually no other country in the world drags out their presidential election cycle this long. I mean, it's like a year and a half. Remember all those debates last year and names like Nikki Haley and Vivek Ramaswamy that were in the news all the time. I mean, other countries get this entire process over with in six weeks. Let's take a page from them, and that way we can have more constructive things in our news cycle. Well, I am coming to you from the makeshift mobile GRE studio today, like I do some weeks, because this morning, I woke up in reading Pennsylvania. Reading is, in fact, my birthplace, and besides being the pretzel capital of the United States, one way that you know about reading is from the Reading Railroad property in the board game Monopoly. Yeah, it's one of the properties that you can buy and, I guess, collect rent on. And, you know, here we are a real estate show. So maybe it's appropriate that the namesake of my birthplace is immortalized as a property on America's best known real estate game. And it also might be appropriate that I'm back here because the 10th anniversary of the launch of this show is nigh this coming Thursday, on October 10, 1010, it will be 10 years since episode one of this show. And yes, the math, I suppose, checks out, because there are about 52 weeks in a year, and you are listening to episode 522, right now. Well, listen to this. This could blow your mind. Have you heard an AI generated podcast? And I don't just mean sort of where a robot reads a blog in monotone and then you listen to that audio file that's embedded in the article. No, that's not what I'm talking about. Here's what I mean. A few weeks ago, I learned that macroeconomist Richard Duncan, who was the first ever guest on this show back in 2014 Gosh, all these tie ins to GRE 's origins today? Well, Richard published some PDF charts, and he uploaded them to notebooklm.google.com, that's how you find this. And he clicked generate audio overview, and within three minutes, it had created a podcast with two virtual people having this pretty intelligent, engaging and even humorous conversation about his presentation on interest rates. I mean, wow, just listen to the first minute or minute and a half of this AI generated podcast here. And again, this is from about a month ago. So they're talking about the upcoming Fed rate cut that did indeed happen.

13:23

All right, ready to dive in. Today, we're tackling the big question everyone wants to know, will the Fed actually cut rates on September 18? It's the question on everyone's mind, for sure, and more importantly, for our listeners, what's it going to mean for them to help us unpack this whole thing. We're looking at this report. It's by economist Richard Duncan, called why the Fed will cut September 12, 2024. Duncan always brings unique perspective. He cuts right to the chase, which I appreciate. right! So let's jump right in. Duncan starts by talking about inflation, which, let's face it, we've all been feeling the heat from this past year. Yeah, it's been a wild ride. Inflation hit a pretty brutal 9% last year. I think my grocery bills are still recovering. Oh yeah, tell me about it. But the latest number shows down to 2.5% that's both by the CPI and importantly, the PCE Price Index, right? And that PCE is the one the Fed really keeps their eye on, exactly, which is why I wanted to ask you about that. Why is the PCE like the golden child for the Fed, why not just stick with the CPI? Everyone knows that one. well, It's all about getting the most accurate picture of inflation. Think of it like this. The CPI is like taking a quick glance at prices. You know, just a snapshot in time. Okay with you, but the PCE, that's more like a movie. It captures how our spending habits change as prices change, and that gives the fed a better look at those underlying trends driving inflation. So it's like the CPI with a little bit of a crystal ball. It's trying to anticipate what's going to happen. It's got it okay? So inflation seems to be cooling down, which is good news, right?

Keith Weinhold 14:56

Gosh, that's just really good, a totally realistic sounding AI generated podcast just from some PDF files. The macro economist Richard Duncan uploaded remarkable and you know that the quality of that is only going to get better. That's probably about as bad as it's ever going to be right there. And in fact, in another 10 years, listeners could find it rather cute or quaint that we find this remarkable today. A big thanks to Richard Duncan for allowing us to play that and also expect Richard to be back here with us on the show again before the year ends, and here on the 10th anniversary week of the GRE podcast, you know, it makes me wonder how expendable my job as podcast host is going to be. I hope that I'm here with you in another 10 years, and I completely plan to be. Well episode number one of the get rich education podcast back from 2014 is called your abundance mindset. So it's apropos to visit a mindset topic today I'm going to do that with firebrand Speaker This week's guest, Garrett Gunderson. Here shortly, do you want to live a life that is small and safe and sheltered? I doubt that you really do, but you know, safe decision after safe decision, that's what most people end up doing. Do you want your kids to live a small, safe, sheltered life? I mean, most parents want safety for their children, but they're going to have an outsized impact on others when they study and then take the right risks. We're discussing those types of wealth creation mindsets with Garrett. He's a really talented guy. He was last with us six years ago. He's done some stand up comedy. Many have remarked that Garrett looks like Jesus Christ. He's the author of some popular books, including killing sacred cows. Let's talk to Garrett. This week's guest is a pretty well known author and speaker. He helps you make, keep and grow your money to help you live your best life. He's an especially dynamic speaker, public speaker, and I'm confident that you'll be able to hear that on the show today, because he has a great knowledge base, and he speaks with this conviction on topics that make him so compelling. Hey, it's been a few years. Welcome back to GRE Garrett Gunderson.

Garrett Gunderson 17:38

good to be back. I thought that was a very honest, like, pretty well known, like, I'm not really well known pretty well. That's just enough to annoy my wife. Like, I'll be going through an airport and someone come over and talk to me, and she's like, ah, but I love it, dude. I love conversations with people that I don't know, and I just get to meet because if they engage in my work, it gives us a chance to connect. And sometimes it makes me look cool to my kids, which is always a good thing. You know what I'm saying, like my son will be with me and someone say, hey, love killing sacred cows, or, Hey, are you that guy on YouTube? I'm like, it could be me, or you might be thinking, I'm Jesus. You know what I'm saying. I look familiar, though.

Keith Weinhold 18:14

Yeah. Now you can tell your kids that I said you are pretty well known. And you know, Garrett, you're also a really keen and perceptive person. You can tell if somebody's poor within 60 seconds of what they say. Tell us about that.

Garrett Gunderson 18:31

Oh, man, that video has so much hate. Man. I put that out like it was my son's filming, and I'm just sitting in our kitchen, and I was just thinking about a conversation I had earlier that day, and in the conversation, it was like, more about complaining about the world, saying that they couldn't afford things, saying they didn't have the time, blaming everyone for their situation. And I was like, man, it's pretty easy to tell. And 60 seconds, I mean, I guess maybe is a rash statement, because maybe it takes three minutes or 300 seconds, like five minutes, and get deep enough, but you just find that there's a certain language to poverty, and whether that's just poor in spirit, whether it's poor in mind, or whether it's poor in the bank account, typically it's devoid of personal responsibility. It's leading the levels of inspiration. And this isn't to say that if you're wealthy, that you only speak inspiring conversations. I mean, I complain sometimes that happens. I get frustrated. I get disappointed in myself for not being nicer to a customer service person and like, have to really manage that sometimes. But ultimately, it's this language that is almost like a Marxist type of language, you know, that comes from a place of like, I want this. I'm owed that we deserve this. And I'm like, wait, wait, wait, like, who's going to produce that? And so it's something that's a fairly easy thing to detect with just a few questions. Like, if I'm given one question, I can tell in 60 seconds for sure.

Keith Weinhold 19:57

Yeah. I think a lot of times people start complaining. About something. People find money a scarce resource when they start, you know, complaining about gas prices or something like that, I think that's just really a classic one. It tells me where they're coming from. I mean, it tells me what their mind is occupying.

Garrett Gunderson 20:12

Right. And if we're not excited about our future, if we're not developing our skill sets, if we're not really engaged in the world of value creation, it's easy to get frustrated about tax it's easier to get frustrated about inflation. It's easier to get complaining about interest rates or loan rates and all those kind of things. But what I find is the best way to outpace inflation is through skill set, and if we truly invest in ourselves and invest in other people so that we increase our quality of life and our enjoyment of it along the way, we increase all the skill sets that matter. You've mentioned that I'm a decent public speaker and that I'm articulate. That comes from going through writing courses and hiring speaking coaches and just getting the reps and doing comedy and the things that will help me to become a more effective communicator. And then it's really about becoming a better cash flow investor. I know that you teach people a lot around, you know, real estate and investing, and that's one of the big three assets in my mind, that helps people generate and create cash flow. But most people are trapped in this indoctrination where they set money aside and forget it. They wait for 30 years and hope for the best. They're very one dimensional of just paying off a loan and then hoping the retirement plan is going to get them there. And that's why they end up in this mindset where they're like, oh, I don't feel in control, because the outcome of my income is something that's dictated by the economy and not my own willpower, not my own skill set, not my own value creation. And I think that's why retirement is such a bad and faulty notion. My main statement in life is create the life you don't want to retire from. Now, I get it. In the industrial age, people need to retire because they were being worked to death and they weren't living for very long. It was an immensely valuable concept back then, a blue to collar world back then? Yeah, right. But in today's world, what if people just invested more time in selecting your career that mattered or had enough faith and took a leap on themselves to start becoming a better investor or start a business or be an entrepreneur where they get upside potential, instead of just begging for safety and security, instead of just wanting the entitlement of benefits, instead of just trading time for money, like that's an industrial age concept that we watched, whether it's our parents or grandparents, go through trading time for money, but we're in a world where that's not required any longer, because we do have technology, we do have artificial intelligence, we do have these things that are starting to displace The jobs that no one really wants to do because it beats down the body, and there's a lot of opportunity for those that are willing to grasp it and go for it, but it comes down to one key thing, value creation. And if we're going to be devoid of value creation, it's easy to tell in 60 seconds whether someone's poor because value creation was not part of their concept or their purview.

Keith Weinhold 22:40

And value creation is about expanding that upside. And a lot of poverty mindsets just complain about the downside their expenses. And you can't really do that much about your expenses. You can only lower them so much. Anytime you do, you're probably diminishing your quality of life anyway. And really, I think a lot of this mindset of lack Garrett comes back to the fact that, simply, most believe that money itself is a scarce resource. I probably believe that at one time, when I was younger, maybe you did too. And as I like to say, although I wasn't the first person that said it, the only place that you get money is from other people. So most people, which tend to be employees, think their way to increase their income is only if their employer gives them a raise, or maybe if they find a new employer that pays them maybe 10% more, or something like that. So they're limiting their upside over there because they think money's a scarce resource, because it's got to come from an employer. Somehow they're not thinking about, why don't you really expand your upside and start an Amazon business, or rent cars through Turo or Airbnb rentals, or what we do here at get risk education, help people with long term housing rentals. So it just kind of comes back to the fact that, you know, people's mind is closed off, and they just simply want to believe that money is a scarce resource.

Garrett Gunderson 23:57

They're adding to computer screens as we talk about this, you know, I mean, there's never been more money in the world than there is today. It's the most money there's ever been. We keep adding it. There's, you know, so much of it out there. But even if they stopped printing it, or they stopped adding it to balance sheets, there's an infinite number of times they can exchange hands. So if we use it to buy computers and clothes or food and shelter or entertainment like comedy and concerts, the more times money exchanges hands, the more values created. It's exchange that facilitates and creates wealth in the way that we create exchanges, serving others, solving problems and adding value. And here's the deal, we can have two parties do exchange with one another and both end up wealthier. It doesn't need to be a win, lose transaction. As a matter of fact, when people transact, they agree that what they bought was worth more than their money, or if they sold it, they agree that the money was more than what they sold. Otherwise they would have kept it. We don't do equal exchange. I wouldn't give you $1 for $1 right? There's no reason to exchange. It's unequal, which means, if you can provide something more efficiently than. I can for myself. I can pay you, which frees up my time to do what I most efficiently and effectively can do. I did triathlons because I was an idiot back in the day. Sorry for those triathletes, which is like a lot of work, man. And I don't love swimming, but I remember going to buy a triathlon bike. I just bought, like, a road bike. It was a big upgrade from having a huffy from Walmart, you know, like, oh, this $4,700 this is a while back, but it was carbon fiber. It was, like, amazing. And I thought, you know, I could never build this. So this $4,700 is actually really cheap, because I'm giving him $4,700 to build something that I can then go build something like write a book or do some consulting or do a speech that can inspire someone. And so that exchange was valuable. It's like if you bought killing cigarette cows. For me, you're saying that it was worth more than $20 I'm saying it was worth less because I already have the knowledge in my head, and so we both can end up wealthier. Unequal exchange is what facilitates wealth. What it lets us do is tap into our best abilities and tap into other people's best abilities. And that exchange ends up growing over time, and the more times money circulates because of Good Services and experiences, the more output there is. So look at today. Hundreds of years ago, if you wanted to listen to music, you had to hire a quartet. Now it's free for almost anyone, if you have any device of any sort, if you're willing to listen to a commercial here or there, you can listen to anything that you want. For the most part, you don't even have to pay for it. So think about that advancement. If you want to be anywhere in the world, you could be there in almost 24 hours or less, back in the day, that would have taken, you know, years for that matter. I mean, we have so much more wealth because we keep building upon previous wealth, previous ideas, and those blueprints we continue to grow from with new innovation and ingenuity. Therefore, the quality of life for someone that's middle class today is infinitely more than the middle class of hundreds of years ago, the amount of people that are hungry today versus years ago, even though we have more than 8 billion people on the planet, has gone down as a percentage, not up as a percentage. That's because of velocity and exchange. It's because of this notion that money's not scarce and resources have the way to be replenished, as long as we're stewards. Now, if the bison, if we kill too many of them, then they can't replenish, right? But if we manage that properly, you could actually eat the bison, use the skins, do all that kind of stuff, and still have that exist in the future. These people that don't believe in that believe that there's like a finite pie, that if one thing's gone, it's gone forever, not understanding value exchange, reproduction, apparently, and basic science either. And again, we can overdo those things and damage an ecosystem. So there is a balance.

Keith Weinhold 27:36

Yeah, that's right, when you talk about value creation, then you're really not talking about a person going out and trying to get their piece of the pie. Really more accurately what you're talking about. Here are ideas for expanding the entire pie.

Garrett Gunderson 27:51

Spam the pie. Expand your means you can budget and reduce. You said it eloquently. You said, Hey, there's only so much you can do in reduction of expenses before it just starts infringing and taking away from things that you value in life. There's a finite game there, but the expansion gain through co creation, through collaboration, instead of through competition, is absolutely an infinite pie that continues to grow as we add more value, as we serve more people, as we solve bigger problems, as we more deeply impact the people that we impact as we reach more people, these are things that can lead to more dollars. So I have this thing called the value equation. It's our mental capital, ideas, knowledge, wisdom, insights, strategies and tools multiplied by our relationship capital, people, networks, organizations, communities, friends, family, mentors, equals our financial capital. So financial capital is a byproduct of our stewardship of our mental and relationship capital. And the bridge between mental relationship capital is what we call business, or we call investing. So ultimately, Money Follows value. How do we add more value? Have a better idea. Impact more people. More more deeply. Impact the people you currently serve. Collaborate and offer more like it's an infinite pie and an infinite game. If we play it that way. We're talking with speaker and author Garrett Gunderson, about the mindset of wealth creation. More. We come back with Garrett. I'm your host. Keith Weinhold.

Keith Weinhold 29:01

hey, you can get your mortgage loans at the same place where I get mine at Ridge lending group NMLS, 42056, they've provided our listeners with more loans than any provider in the entire nation because they specialize in income properties. They help you build a long term plan for growing your real estate empire with leverage. You can start your pre qualification and chat with President Caeli Ridge personally. Start Now while it's on your mind at ridgelendinggroup.com That's ridgelendinggroup.com. Your bank is getting rich off of you. The national average bank account pays less than 1% on your savings if your money isn't making 4% Percent, you're losing your hard earned cash to inflation. Let the liquidity fund help you put your money to work. With minimum risk, your cash generates up to an 8% return with compound interest, year in and year out. Instead of earning less than 1% sitting in your bank account, the minimum investment is just 25k you keep getting paid until you decide you want your money back. Their decade plus track record proves they've always paid their investors 100% in full and on time. And I would know, because I'm an investor too. Earn 8% hundreds of others are text family 266, 866, learn more about freedom. Family investments, liquidity fund, on your journey to financial freedom through passive income. Text, family 266, 866,

Hal Elrod 30:54

this is Hal Elrod author of The Miracle Morning and listen to get it rich. Education with Keith Weinhold, and don't quit your Daydream.

Keith Weinhold 31:10

welcome back to get rich education. We're talking with firebrand speaker and author Garrett Gunderson. You can learn more about him at Garrettgunderson.com. Garrett before the break, we were talking about the mindset in opening up one in order to create more wealth over time. Here, a lot of times, one way we talk about that is, don't just get your money to work for you. Get other people's money to work for you. You could actually use other people's money ethically three ways at the same time, in real estate, using the tenant's money for the income stream the government's money for generous tax incentives, and then the bank's money for the leverage, which is actually a greater wealth building force than compound interest. That's one example of how we do that here. But when one has become successful, oftentimes they want to make sure that that's lasting. They want to build a legacy, something that they can carry on. And I know you articulate that through the Rockefeller method. So do you want to tell us more about that?

Garrett Gunderson 32:05

I wrote this book. What would the Rockefellers do back in 2016 this study between really wealthy families versus their wealth lasted, versus wealthy families that decimated it, and the best study was really the Vanderbilt because they had more money than the US Treasury. One the railroad family, yeah, transportation. And you know what? They destroyed that Cornelius died, and then his eldest son doubled the estate nine years and then he died, and that was the last time their estate grew. It started to decrease after that. And 54 years later, the first Vanderbilt died broke, and so the last Vanderbilt family union didn't have any millionaires at it. I know everybody knows about like Vanderbilt University. They donated like, a million dollars to get that started. But, you know, that was pretty inconsequential compared to their overall net worth. But they didn't have a formula or format to create sustainable wealth. They own 10 mansions in in Manhattan. They don't own those anymore. They own the breakers in Rhode Island. The state of Rhode Island owns that now. So they lost this massive amount of wealth where the Rockefellers are just entering their seventh generation of passing on, well, seven generations, wow. And people that worked for the rock bellers, like the executives, they're still passing on, well, for this generation after generation. And most people don't make it past the third generation. And we could look at, you know, people like Walt Disney. We could look at people like JCPenney. We could look at people, you know, like the the Kennedy family and so many others that have used these two things to really create sustainable wealth. Number one is they use trust. The Rockefellers coined the term own nothing and control everything, whether that's a revocable living trust for people who are just starting out and don't have a substantial amount of wealth, or a domestic asset protection trust for those that have a decent amount of wealth, those are the two main popular ones. There are some offshore trusts. It gets onerous and complicated once you go offshore, but it does protect your assets. The second piece is using whole life insurance, so they have this death benefit that's on the insured, and they put that on their heirs, so that every time an heir dies, it replenishes the trust, and potentially even grows it, because there's these threats to the family wealth, there's taxes, there's inflation, there's interest rate fluctuations or market, you know, economic turmoil. So what they're doing is they're creating that level of stability, and they give them preferred interest rates to borrow from the trust versus a bank. So now your family can actually earn interest instead of paying interest. And yes, if your family is paying interest, they're paying it back to their future generation at Preferred rates. And so you could be one generation away from never needing a bank again and actually being able to capitalize on deals a whole lot faster. Specifically, we use whole life, because it transfers the risk to the insurance company. There's six or seven companies that are participating, mutual companies that have been around for over 150 years, always paid dividends. It protects your cash value from taxes. It protects it from liability and bankruptcy in over 40 states, fully and partially in every state. So what happens is, for an asset allocation decision. You can start moving some of your fixed income portfolio to this and have a better, more robust benefits type of situation, and then actually start to implement this Rockefeller method so that you can create generational wealth.

Keith Weinhold 35:12

All right, so the Rockefeller method using trusts and whole life insurance to preserve and grow your wealth, so as one's building their portfolio, amassing wealth, increasing income streams as they go along in their investor journey. Is there anything that they should keep in mind as they try to integrate some of these things from the Rockefellers?

Garrett Gunderson 35:12

Yeah, a lot of other insurance people try to sell these index universal life policies, but those won't work because they have too many levers of risk, and especially when you're building cash value, you might use that cash value to buy real estate. Then you might use the rental income to put the money back into the policy so you can buy more real estate in the future. So it becomes like a medium storage shed or unit for your cash that's protected, but now it comes with the death benefit, which, here's one example, for a real estate investor, instead of just, you know, rolling it over to the next property and rolling it over to the next property when you eventually sell, you can use a charitable trust. And a charitable trust, you can donate that highly appreciated piece of real estate, get a partial tax deduction, sell it and fund the trust and pay zero tax on your gains. No matter what your basis is, there's no tax on the gains. You're the first beneficiary of the trust, meaning you can take an income between 5% and 50% from the trust while you're alive, depending on the underlying assets, and then when you die, the charity keeps whatever's left over. But if you have a life insurance policy that will replenish what that donation was, therefore giving you 20 30% or more increased cash flow with an asset by making a synergistic allocation. Now, that's a lot of information in a short period of time, but it's more about planting seeds. And don't worry, I'll give everybody a copy of the book at no charge, so they can kind of read it at their own pace, or you can listen to it at their own pace, versus me condensing it into just a couple minutes.

Keith Weinhold 36:56

Oh, thanks. All right, well, we'll learn more about that resource at the end that sounds like that can be really helpful to a lot of people. And I guess Garrett, even though you're not as real estate ish as me, as we wind down here, you know, I think the place that you and I find the most common ground is we often say and help people with the things that sort of fly in the face of conventional guidance. I mean, you really just don't have to think about it that much more than if you just do normal stuff, average, mediocre stuff, you're only going to have a normal, average, mediocre outcome. So can you tell us about any last things that can help get people thinking differently and debunk some of this conventional guidance that really will never help get you much above lower middle class?

Garrett Gunderson 37:40

Yeah, if you're putting your money in mutual funds and ETFs, you're making a bunch of other people money. I mean, the big three is you want to focus on generating cash flow so you can create financial independence. Because if you have enough cash flow from assets to cover your expenses, every active dollar can build more assets. That's an exponential benefit to you. So now that you don't have to be forced to work, you've got a lot more freedom. And the big three for me are real estate businesses or intellectual property, which is kind of, you know, something that is part of business to a degree, but I consider a different asset class. Those are the big three. I have no money in the stock market. I have money in my businesses. I invest in myself. I invest in my vision. I invest in a team, instead of investing in things that I have no control over and I don't get cash flow from and that the economy can change, or that Wall Street's making money on whether I make money or not. So that's just one notion that I think we could probably, you know, agree, flies in the face of what everybody's teaching. That's the masses. But when you look at the wealthiest people, it's how they're implementing and what they're doing.

Keith Weinhold 38:39

And I think another place that conventional guidance really tells people to prioritize is paying down debt or paying off debt. I mean, making your debt free scream at age 34 you know, maybe that's not so bad, but maybe not. I mean, did paying down low to moderate interest rate debt and making that priority sacrifice your lifestyle and your family's lifestyle the entire time while you were doing it, and did it have a steeper opportunity cost, because you were not investing those dollars in things that can earn a greater return than their interest rates were they're using some of the vehicles that you talked about. So, you know, I guess what I'm getting at Garrett philosophically, one way I said it, is that the risk of delayed gratification is denied gratification?

Garrett Gunderson 39:23

Yeah, I mean, if we become sacrifice, how do we ever overcome that habit? I'm I'm scrimping, I'm sacrificing, yeah, I'm deferring. And then one day, what you're supposed to flip the switch be like, Okay, now I'm abundant. I'm gonna enjoy this money that doesn't happen. So that habitual notion of reduce, cut, eliminate, no one shrinks their way to wealth. It's a game of expansion and production. Yes, be efficient, be intelligent, be a steward, but don't become a miser, because misers, no matter how much money they have, never get to feel what it's like to live their richest life. It's always about elimination. Instead of enjoyment and utilization.

Keith Weinhold 40:02

Oh, that is just beautifully stated. I really can't say it any better than that, and that really brings it back full circle as to the best personal finance is probably growing your means rather than practicing living below your means for decades, and then you'll never get that time back. Well, Garrett, you've generated so many good educational resources. Why you've been the successful author and speaker. Tell us more about that.

Garrett Gunderson 40:26

Garrettgunderson.com is where a lot of those resources are. I write a blog like it's 2006 because I love to write and just get information out there. I've created a money persona quiz. So if you go forward slash tools on Garrettgunderson.com you can figure out what's the success or sabotage that happens subconsciously with how you deal with money. It's very informative and useful. I've written 10 books. I offered that if people DM me on Instagram, Garrett B, Gunderson, two R's, two T's, middle initial B and just say, Keith, get rich. Keith get rich. So I know it was on this program, I'll hook you up with the audio and a PDF of the book on me, so that you can hopefully just understand this Rockefeller method and improve your life and start building a legacy right now. Because if you're already doing real estate, that's great, let's make sure to preserve, protect and even perpetuate that wealth with some of the structures that could be integrated.

Keith Weinhold 41:17

Well Garrett, yeah, you have a lot of great resources and just a really wide spectrum of understanding of concepts all across a personal finance field. Is there any last thing you'd like to let our audience know about?

Garrett Gunderson 41:28

Just create the life you don't want to retire from. Design a life that you love. Create enough cash flow from assets to have that economic independence so you have choice and freedom daily of what you do and swing for the fences in that purpose, you know, that's probably the best advice that I could give.

Keith Weinhold 41:43

Why would you want to live your life any other way? Garrett Gunderson, it's been valuable as expected. Thanks so much for coming on to the show.

Garrett Gunderson 41:51

Thanks for having me.

Keith Weinhold 41:58

Yeah, a lot on both mindset and long term wealth preservation with Garrett Gunderson today, now, 15 weeks ago, on episode 507 you'll remember that episode called compound interest is weak, where I made a takedown about how compound Interest actually is not serving people. Leverage does serve people. Garrett also makes a takedown and critiques this myth about how people think compound interest builds wealth. A little review. There some comprehension from 15 weeks ago, compound interest has most people counting on the average annual return when they should be focused on the compound annual growth rate. A little review. Remember the average annual return means if you're up 10% one year and then down 10% next year that you broke even. That's the arithmetic thing. But that is a lie. The reality is in this CAGR, the compound annual growth rate, it reflects, if you're up 10% one year and then down 10% the next year, you're at minus 1% the geometric thing. And that's the reality, and that makes a retirement lifestyles worth of difference, and a retirement ages worth of difference like I thoroughly broke down for you in episode 507 coming up on the show here in future weeks, a familiar name like Tom wheelwright returns, and then new guests, like a former NFL player here on the show, if you want to reach out to Garrett Gunderson on Instagram for his best free resources, even the audio and pdf of his Rockefeller method of generational wealth preservation, again on Instagram, you can DM him at Garrett B Gunderson, he let me know later, all you have to do is send him my first name, Keith, and he will hook you up there. I'm your host, Keith Weinhold, and I am supremely grateful and even in awe of your devoted listenership for an entire decade of your life and mine, here's to another 10 years. Don't quit your Daydream.

44:21

Keith Weinhold 44:49

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Mon, 30 September 2024

President of the Mises Institute and author of “How Capitalism Saved America”, Dr. Thomas DiLorenzo joins us to uncover the current state of capitalism and if it still exists in America.

Earlier in the episode, Keith discusses the inaccuracy of economic predictions, citing examples like the 2023 recession that never happened, the negative impact of misinformed predictions on investment decisions and business growth.

Persistent housing price crash predictions have been consistently wrong despite global pandemics and higher mortgage rates.

Dr. DiLorenzo advocates for #EndTheFed to reduce inflation and restore free market principles.

Learn how voluntary exchange between buyer and seller through market prices communicates information and influences production.

Resources:

Learn more about Austrian economics and Ludwig von Mises through visiting mises.org

Show Notes:

GetRichEducation.com/521

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520: How to Use Other People’s Money for Your Rental Property Loan

Complete episode transcript:

Automatically Transcribed With Otter.ai

Keith Weinhold 00:00

Keith, welcome to GRE. I'm your host. Keith Weinhold, reviewing some terrible economic predictions and why it matters to you. Then the President of the Mises Institute joins us. Does capitalism still exist in the US and what would happen if we ended the Fed, today on get rich education.

00:24

Since 2014 the powerful get rich education podcast has created more passive income for people than nearly any other show in the world. This show teaches you how to earn strong returns from passive real estate investing in the best markets without losing your time being a flipper or landlord. Show Host Keith Weinhold writes for both Forbes and Rich Dad advisors, who delivers a new show every week since 2014 there's been millions of listener downloads of 188 world nations. He has a list show. Guess who? Top Selling personal finance author Robert Kiyosaki, get rich education can be heard on every podcast platform, plus it has its own dedicated Apple and Android listener phone apps build wealth on the go with the get rich education podcast. Sign up now for the get rich education podcast, or visit getricheducation.com

Corey Coates 01:09

You're listening to the show that has created more financial freedom than nearly any show in the world. This is get rich education.

Keith Weinhold 01:25

welcome to GRE from Syracuse, Sicily to Syracuse, New York, and across 188 nations worldwide, you're listening to one of the longest running and most listened to shows on real estate investing. This is Get Rich Education. I'm your host, Keith Weinhold, now a lot of media companies and pundits and influencers like to make predictions. Listeners like learning about predictions and by engaging just a little of that each of the past few years on one of the last episodes of the year. Here, I forecast the national home price appreciation rate for the following year, many media outlets, pundits and influencers have made terrible, just absolutely terrible, predictions about interest rates and other financial forecasts. Last year, a majority of Pro prognosticators firmly forecast six or eight Fed rate cuts this year, for example, well, we're going to have far fewer, and that's because high inflation kept hanging around. Then there's the 2023 recession that never happened, yet both Bloomberg and the economist actually published some rather ignominious headlines, as it turned out, they published these in the fall of 2022 Bloomberg, big headline was forecast for us, recession within year hits 100% in blow to Biden, well, That was false. That didn't come true. I mean, 100% that doesn't leave you any room for an out. And then also published in the fall of 2022 The Economist ran this headline why a global recession is inevitable in 2023 All right, well, they both believed in a recession, and they believed in it so deeply that it got fossilized. Well, an economic archeologist like me dug it up.

Dr Thomas DiLorenzo 03:31

We are going to die

Keith Weinhold 03:35

well, but I didn't risk my life like Indiana Jones did there. This archeology, it only involves some Google searches. Well, here's the thing. What's remarkable about America staving off a mammoth recession and leaving all the other g7 nations in the economic dust is the fact that merely predicting a recession often makes it come true. Just predicting one often turns a recession into a self fulfilling prophecy. Yeah, recession forecast headlines alone, they can spook employers from making new hires and slow down manufacturing, and it can also disillusion real estate investors from expanding their portfolios. Well, the US economy grew anyway, besides the farcical prognostications about myriad interest rate cuts in a quote, unquote definite 2023 recession that never happened. You know, there's also a third forecast that so many got wrong. And you probably know what I'm gonna say. I've brought it up before, because this hits our world, those erstwhile and well still ever present housing price crash predictions. I mean this facet of the gloom boom really ramped up from 2020 One until today, even a global pandemic, new wars and a triplicate mortgage rates couldn't stop the housing price surge and the rent surge. A lot of doomsdayers just couldn't see, or they didn't even want to see that a housing shortage would keep prices afloat. They didn't want to see it because they get more clicks when they talk about the gloom government stimulus programs also buoyed prices, and deep homeowner equity cushions will still keep prices afloat. Ever since 2021 here on the show, I've used that rationale and more to explain that home prices would keep appreciating, but that the rate of appreciation would slow down, and it has slowed down since 2021 see YouTubers tick tockers. They notoriously use woe begone housing crash headlines, because that gets more clicks and then some of the rationale behind this. The reasoning is just dreadful, like, what goes up must come down, all right? Well, this is like, why does it matter? Who cares about wrong predictions anyway? What's the point? Well, people become misinformed. People waste their time on these things and see no one loses money on dismal economic predictions. But the damage is done, because when investors don't act well, then they didn't get the gain that they should have had. Businesses didn't get the gain that they should have had when they could have made new investment and hired new employees sooner. And of course, a recession is going to happen sometime. They occur, on average, every five to six years. It is just a normal part of the business cycle will collectively these three faulty economic predictions, rate cuts, a recession and a housing price crash. I think if you bundle them all up combined, it could be as bad as one doomsday prediction about worldwide starvation or the Mayan apocalypse. Remember that the wide to K bug, the acid rain, even that the internet is just a fad that ran a buck 30 years ago. World War Three is eminent, robots overtaking humans, or how about running out of crude oil. I mean, we're definitely all supposed to have jet packs in flying cars by now, right? But yet, did anyone have the clairvoyance to predict the stock market crash of 1929 or September 11 terrorist attacks, or Trump's surprise, 2016 presidency or Bitcoin hitting 70k A while back, or the coronavirus. So really, overall, the bottom line here with predictions is that no one knows the future. Control what you can maintain equanimity, add good properties, gradually raise rent, reduce expenses, create leverage and expect inflation truly the best way to predict the future is to create it in just that way. Well is the USA capitalistic nation today. That's what we'll discuss later with this week's guest. When Chuck Todd hosted the show Meet the Press, he interviewed AOC about this. Yes, I'm talking about us. House Rep from New York, Alexandria Ocasio Cortez, what she say? You

08:34

have said you are democratic socialist. Can you be a Democratic socialist and a capitalist? Well, I think it depends on your interpretation. So there are some Democratic socialists that would say, Absolutely not. There are other people that are democratic socialists that would say, I think it's possible. What are you? I think it's possible. I think you say to yourself, I'm a capitalist, but I don't say that. You know, if anything, I would say, I'm I believe in a democratic economy, but.

Keith Weinhold 09:03

okay, well, I'm not sure if that clears it up at all. And I've listened to more of that clip, and it just makes things more confusing. But I think that most people have trouble drawing a line between capitalism and neighboring economic systems. Where exactly do you draw that line? I don't know exactly where to draw it. When I think of capitalism, I think of things though, like removal of interventionist central planning and allowing the free market to run with few guardrails. And then there's an issue like labor unionization. I don't really know about something like that. This is a real estate show. I'm still forming an opinion on a topic like that. In you know, some of this gets political, and that's beyond the scope of get rich education. The Fed was created in 1913 that central planning, its central banking from 1987 to. 2006 Alan Greenspan reigned as Fed chair. Those were his years, and he became even more interventionist. And then his successor, Ben Bernanke, maybe even more so with quantitative easing and such. Let's talk about, should they end the Fed and capitalism with this week's expert guest. You very well may have heard of the late, famed Austrian American economist Ludwig von Mises today, the Mises Institute carries on his legacy, and this week's guest is none other than the President of the Mises Institute. He's also the number one best selling author of how capitalism saved America and his newer book with a title that I love, The Politically Incorrect Guide to Economics. Hey, it's great to have you here. It is. Dr Thomas DiLorenzo.

Dr Thomas DiLorenzo 11:00

pleased to be with you. Thanks for having me.Th

Keith Weinhold 11:02

Well, Dr DiLorenzo, for those that don't know, just tell us a bit in an overview about Austrian economics and what Ludwig von Mises stood for.

Dr Thomas DiLorenzo 11:02

Well, Ludwig von Mises was the preeminent critic of socialism and fascism in Europe, and in his day, he fled the Nazis literally hours before the Gestapo broke into his apartment in Geneva, because he was the preeminent critic of fascism and socialism, and he was also Jewish, and so he had to get out of town. And he miraculously ended up after wandering through Europe with his wife in New York City, and he taught at New York University for many years, until he died in 1973 and but the Austrian School of Economics is a school of thought. It has nothing to do with, necessarily, with the Government of Austria, the country of Austria, just this the founder of a man named Carl Menger happened to be from Austria, but probably the most famous or well known among Americans would be Friedrich Hayek, who won the Nobel Prize in 1970s he was a student of Ludwig von Mises and critics of interventionism, critics of socialism. We teach about free markets, of how markets actually work and how governments don't work. And that's in a nutshell, that's what it's about. And you could check out our website, mises.org, M, I, S, E, S.org, you can get a great economic education. We have a lot of free books to download. Some of them are downloaded 30 or 40,000 times a month. Still, it's even Mises old books like human action, first published in the 1960s and so you can get a great education just by reading our website.

Keith Weinhold 12:42

Well, congratulations, that's proof that you're doing an excellent job of carrying on the Mises legacy into the present day, a lot of which is championing capitalism. Do we have capitalism in the United States today?

Dr Thomas DiLorenzo 12:59

I was an economics professor from 40 years before I got this job as President of the Mises Institute. And I used to say we had islands of socialism in a sea of capitalism at the beginning of my career. But now I'd say it's the opposite, that we have islands of capitalism in a sea of socialism. And socialism, this data is not defined anymore as government ownership. That was, you know, about 100 years ago, the socialism. It's basically government control of industry and in addition to government ownership. So the instruments of the welfare state, the income tax and the regulatory state, is our version of socialism, or central planning, if you will. And it's the Federal Reserve the Fed, which is a government agency that orchestrates the whole thing, really, it's a big, massive central planning industry that controls, regulates basically every aspect of any kind of financial transaction imaginable. They list in their publications over 100 different functions of the Federal Reserve. It's not just monetary policy. It's a big regulatory behemoth, and so that's that's what the Fed is. That's what I think we have today. A friend of mine, Robert Higgs, a well known economic historian, says our system is what he calls participatory fascism. And fascism was a system where private enterprise was permitted, but it was so heavily regulated and regimented by the government that industry had to do what government wanted to do, not what its customers wanted it to do, so much, and a large part of our economic system is just like that, and we get to vote still, so that's where the participatory and comes in, and the pin of Robert Hinz.

Keith Weinhold 14:41

yeah, maybe at best, I can think of today's system as capitalism with guardrails on but the guardrails keep getting taller. And I think of guardrails as being, for example, regulatory agencies like the Fed in FINRA. In the FDA.

Dr Thomas DiLorenzo 15:01

It is the beginning of my career. You know, I studied economics and a PhD in economics, and there was a big literature on what's called regulatory capture. And it was sort of a big secret among US economic academics. There was all this research going on and how the big regulatory agencies created by the federal government in the late 19th, early 20th centuries, were captured by the industries that they were supposed to be regulating. Right? The theory was they would regulate these industries in the public's best interests. But what has happened from the very beginning is they were captured by the industries, and they benefit the industry at the expense of the public. But today, that's caught on thanks to people like Robert Kennedy Jr, frankly, has been a very popular author. He sold a gazillion copies of his book on Anthony Fauci, and in it, he explains in tremendous detail how the Food and Drug Administration was long ago captured by the pharmaceutical companies. And he's not the only one. I think that that is being more and more recognized by people outside of academic economics, like me, and that's a good thing, and that's sort of the worst example of crony capitalism. It's not real capitalism, but crony capitalism making money through government connections, rather than producing better products, cheaper products and so forth.

Keith Weinhold 16:21

I watched RFK Jr speak in person recently, and I was actually disappointed when he effectively dropped out of the upcoming presidential race. And I do want to talk more with you about the Fed shortly, but with all these regulatory agencies and how I liken them to guard rails. You know, I sort of think of it as a watchdog system that's failing. You mentioned the FDA. I know RFK Jr brought them up an awful lot, the Food and Drug Administration that are supposed to help regulate what we put inside our own bodies in our diet. But these systems are failing. We have regulatory agencies in industry, industry in regulatory agencies. I mean, look at the obesity rate. Look at all the ultra processed food that's allowed. Look at all the seed oils that are allowed in food that people actually think are healthy for them. So this system of capitalism with guardrails is failing almost everywhere you look.

Dr Thomas DiLorenzo 16:22

I wouldn't call it capitalism. I wouldn't use the word capitalism at all, other than crony capitalism, people can relate to that. You know, a lot of these regulatory agencies were lobbied for in the first place by industry. That while the very first one was the Interstate Commerce Commission, it was in the 1880s it was meant to regulate the railroad companies. The first president was the president of a Railroad Corporation, the head of the Interstate Commerce Commission. So talk about the fox guarding the hen house. That was from the very beginning. And so in a sense, this word capture theory of regulation, which Kennedy has used, they weren't really captured. They always were created by the government. The same is true of all the so called Public Utilities. It was the corporations, the electric power companies, the water supply companies, that lobbied for governments to give them a monopoly, a legal monopoly, in electricity, water supply and all these things that were called natural monopolies, but there was nothing natural about them. There was vigorous competition in the early 20th century in telephone, electricity, water supply, and that was all set aside by government regulation, creating monopolies. For example, in electric power, there's an economist named Walter primo who wrote a book some years ago showing that always have been several dozen cities in America that never went this way, that always allowed direct competition between electric power companies. And what do you know, better service and lower prices. As a result, they did dozens of statistical studies to demonstrate this in his book.

Keith Weinhold 18:58

Okay, well, that's a great case study. Why don't we talk about what things would look like if we took down one of these agencies? We're a real estate investing in finance show. Sometimes it's a popular meme or hashtag to say, end the Fed. What would it look like if we ended the Fed?

Dr Thomas DiLorenzo 19:18

Well, the Fed was created in 1913 in the same era, with all these other regulatory captured agencies were created, right? And it was created basically to cartelize and create a cartel for the banking industry to make it almost impossible to go bankrupt. They've been bailing out foolish bankers for 111 years. And of course, the biggest example was that as the crash of 08 after they they handed Goldman Sachs and other big investment banks billions of dollars. That was a direct assault on capitalism itself, because capitalism, as you know, is a profit and loss system. It's not a I keep the profits. You pay for my losses system. You're the taxpayer. But that's what happened with that. So the Fed would. Fall into that the Fed is actually the fourth central bank in America. We had three other ones. First one was called Bank of North America. Its currency was so unreliable, nobody trusted it went out of business in a year and a half. And then we created something called the Bank of the United States in 1791 same thing. It created boom and bust cycles, high unemployment, price inflation, corrupted politics. It was defunded after 20 years, and then it was brought back to fund the debt from the war of 1812 and so we had a Second Bank of the United States. It did the same thing, boom and bust cycles, price inflation, corrupted politics. Benefited special interest, but not the general interest, and President Andrew Jackson defunded it, and so we went without a central bank from roughly 1840 until 1913 so we've had experience of that. And what we had been was competing currencies, and that would be sort of a stepping stone. If we got rid of the fed, we wouldn't have to abolish the Fed altogether. We could amend the charter to the Fed to say you're no longer permitted to buy bonds. Can't buy government bonds anymore. That's how they inflate the money supply, right? By buying bonds. That's totally unnecessary. And we could just just that would be a great step forward, and we would sort of whittle away our $80 trillion debt, if you count again upon count the unfunded liabilities of the federal government,

Keith Weinhold 21:26

if we did end the Fed, what would the price of money? Which are interest rates really look like? Would a new market rate be sent by individuals and companies on the free market like Bank of America, with a customer or borrower settling on an interest rate that they both agree to.

Dr Thomas DiLorenzo 21:44

You know, the Fed uses sort of Soviet style economics, price control. The economists and are all getting all over Kamala Harris for recommendations for price controls on rent and other things. Well, the Fed price control. They control the price of money. That's what they do. And so there's a big, kind of a comical thing that here you have all these economists, if they were to teach economics in the week one, they would teach about the bad effects of price controls, and then they get a job at the Fed, and they spend their whole career enforcing price controls on money, and the interest rate would be determined by supply and demand for credit and inflationary expectations. That's what the market does. And you wouldn't have these bureaucrats at the Fed tinkering around with interest rates, creating tremendous arbitrage opportunities for Wall Street investors. With all the movements and interest rates, you'd have much more stable interest rates, and and you wouldn't have this ridiculous system where the Fed says we need to always have forever at least 2% inflation. And of course, they never meet that, and they lie about it. I don't believe for one minute that the price inflation right now is 3% or under 3% that's ridiculous, right? And so things should be getting cheaper. Everything should be getting cheaper because of all the technology we have. My first PC I bought in the early 80s for $4,000 and it was a piece of prehistoric junk compared to my cell phone today, that almost for free. Almost everything should be like that agriculture, but the reason it isn't is the Fed keeps pumping so much money in circulation, that it pumps up the demand for goods and services, and that's what creates price inflation. And by its own admission, that's what it does, even though it's charter, it's original charter said they're supposed to fight inflation. All of a sudden, about 10 years ago or so, they announced, south of blue, we always have to have at least 2% inflation. Congress had nothing to do with that. President had nothing to do with that, and the people of America had nothing to do with that. It was dictators like Alan Greenspan and Ben Bernanke that just make these announcements. And where does that come from when we live under the dictatorship of the Fed? And of course, the people who are hurt the most by the Fed are elderly people are living on relatively fixed incomes and are forced to become Wall Street speculators they want to make any more money other than their fixed income, where, you know, during the days of Greenspan, when they're pursuing zero interest rates, maybe the mortgage industry like that, but the people on retirement income were starving as a result of that. So it's been sort of an economic war on the retired population.

Keith Weinhold 24:24

Things should get faster and cheaper to produce, like you said. However, there's definitely one thing that's not getting faster to produce, that's housing build times. Housing build times have actually gone up, which is sort of another discussion unto itself. But we talk about the Fed and then setting prices. People wouldn't stand for setting the price or having price controls on oil or lumber or bananas, but yet we set the price of money itself. People have just become accustomed to that. Yet it's that money itself that we use to buy oil and lumber and bananas the fed with that dual mandate of stable prices and maximum employment. If we did abolish the Fed, what would happen to the rate of inflation?

Dr Thomas DiLorenzo 25:12

Well, we would have less inflation. It's supposed to what we replace it with. There's some system would be a replacement, but we wouldn't have the boom and bust cycles that we have now. There's been research in the past 100 years or so of the Fed, and what the academic researchers have concluded is that the Fed has made the economy in general more unstable than it was before we had the Fed and price inflation. That's a joke. The dollar is worth maybe three cents of what it was in the year 1913 right when the Fed was created. So it has failed on all accounts. And so if we got rid of it, we would reverse that. The idea would be to start out with a competing money system. And I'll tell you a quick story is, you know the word Dixie from the south, you know land of Dixie that was named after a currency by a New Orleans bank called the Dix D, I x 10 in French, and it was 100% gold reserve. It was backed by something real and valuable, and it was so popular as even used in Minnesota. But that's why the whole south, the states in the South, were using this currency, because it was so reliable. But during the Civil War, the national currency acts imposed taxes on the competing currencies and taxed them out of business and established the greenback dollar, as it was called, as the Monopoly money of the country. We didn't get a central bank during the Civil War, but we got that. And so that's the kind of system that we would have. Friedrich Hayek wrote a whole book about this, about competing currencies, called the denationalization of money. He poses that as a good stepping stone to a freer market in money. And like you said, Money is the most important thing. Is most more important than bananas or shoes or any of these other things that we might have price controls on.

Keith Weinhold 27:01

All right, so we're talking about the case for ending the Fed. What is the counter argument? I mean, other than the government wanting control, is there a valid, or any academic counter argument for keeping the Fed in place?

Dr Thomas DiLorenzo 27:16

The Fed has an army. I call it the Fed's Praetorian Guard of academics. There was a research article published by an economist named Larry White at George Mason University several years ago, and he found that 75% of all the articles in the academic journals regarding money, monetary policy and so forth, are by people who are basically paid by the Fed, one way or the other. Either they're fed economists, or they've been invited to a conference by the Fed, or they're an intern some relationship with the Fed. The late Milton Friedman once said, If you want a career as a monetary economist, it's not a good idea to criticize the biggest employer in your field. So there's a lot of nonsense about that. And so yes, you'll have all sorts of rationales, but it basically comes down to this, that we think we can do central planning better than the Russians did under communism, because the Fed is basically an economic central planning agency, and there's no reason to believe Americans are better at it than the Russians or anybody else. And it basically comes down to that, you know, studying the past 111 years that's showing Well, yeah, they've been trying that for 111 years. They've made the economy more unstable, and they have failed miserably to control inflation. And why should we give them another chance? Why should we continue along this road? We shouldn't So, yeah, there'll be all kind of excuses the late Murray Rothbard, who was one of the founders of the Mises, who once answered this question by saying, It's as though people said, Well, say the government always made shoes. 100 years ago they took over the shoe industry. People would be saying, who will make shoes if the government doesn't make shoes? The government has always made shoes, right? But the government has not always monopolized the money supply. It's only like I said, we abolished three Feds in our history. In American history, they weren't called the Fed, but they were central banks. And the Fed is called a central bank, and we've done that three times. We've abolished more central banks than we have kept in American history.

Keith Weinhold 29:17

We're talking with Dr Thomas D Lorenzo. He is the president of the Mises Institute. About, is there really any capitalism left more when we come back, this is Get Rich Education. I'm your host. Keith Weinhold, hey, you can get your mortgage loans at the same place where I get mine, at Ridge lending group and MLS 42056, they provided our listeners with more loans than any provider in the entire nation, because they specialize in income properties, they help you build a long term plan for growing your real estate empire with leverage. You can start your pre qualification and chat with President Caeli Ridge personally. Start now while it's on your mind at RidgeLendingGroup.com, that's Ridgelendinggroup.com. Your bank is getting rich off of you. The national average bank account pays less than 1% on your savings. If your money isn't making 4% you're losing your hard earned cash to inflation. Let the liquidity fund help you put your money to work with minimum risk, your cash generates up to an 8% return with compound interest year in and year out. Instead of earning less than 1% sitting in your bank account, the minimum investment is just 25k you keep getting paid until you decide you want your money back. Their decade plus track record proves they've always paid their investors 100% in full and on time. And I would know, because I'm an investor too. Earn 8% hundreds of others are text family to 66866, learn more about freedom. Family investments, liquidity fund on your journey to financial freedom through passive income. Text, family to 66866.

Kristen Tate 31:11

This is author Kristen Tate. Listen to Get Rich Education with Keith Weinhold, and Don't quit Your Daydream.

Keith Weinhold 31:27

welcome back to get rich education. We're talking with Dr Thomas DiLorenzo. He is the president of the Mises Institute. You can learn more about them @mises.org and Dr DiLorenzo. Frederick Hayek, an economist that you mentioned very well known and a student of Ludwig von Mises, he believed that prices are a communication mechanism between a buyer and a seller. Say, for example, there's a new style of single family rental home that everyone wants to rent. So therefore the rent price goes up when other builders see that the rent price goes up, that brings in more builder competition, and with more competition, that brings rent prices down, and then the world is filled with abundant housing, rather than a scarcity of housing. So that's how I think of a free market system within capitalism as working, as defined through Hayek.

Dr Thomas DiLorenzo 32:22

You know, the consumer is king. Von Mises once wrote about the same point where he said that people mistakenly believe that it's the bankers and the CEOs and the businesses that control what gets produced and so forth, but it's really the consumer. You build a housing development then people don't want those houses. You'll find out real fast who's in charge. It's not the mortgage brokers. It's not the bankers. It's not you, it's the consumer. That's the free market system, and if you do without it, and not using the free market system, whether it's for money or anything else, is kind of like trying to find your way around a strange city with no street signs, and the prices are the street signs that tell us what to do, exactly like you said, if there's strong demand for a certain type of housing, that'll drive the price up, and that'll tell the home builders, we can make money building more of these. And they will do that. Nobody tells them. The Chairman of the Fed doesn't have to tell them that the President doesn't have to tell them that Congress doesn't have to issue a declaration telling them to do that. That was the Soviet Union where they tried that. And that's the great thing about the market, is that the consumer can tell the richest man in the world like Elon Musk, go play in the traffic. Elon Musk, if they don't like his cars or whatever he's producing, even though he's the richest man in the world. And he understands that he's a pretty successful businessman, I would say, and so so he understands that the consumer is his boss.

Keith Weinhold 33:53

Well, what else do we need to know? You have published a lot of celebrated books, from how capitalism saved America to the politically incorrect guide to economics. What else might a real estate investor or an economic enthusiast need to know today? Oh,

Dr Thomas DiLorenzo 34:10

well, I think everybody needs to be their own economist. You can listen to the talking heads on TV and on podcasts and all that, but educate yourself and become your own economist. Because a lot of the people on TV, as you might see on the news, they have an ax to grind, or they have a sort of a hidden financial interest beyond what they're saying, Be your own economist. And that's why I'm selling my website, which is everything on it, it's for free, mises.org, and there are quite a few others too. You don't have to go to school, you don't have to get a degree. You can get a good economic education, for example, on money. We're in the middle of giving away 100,000 copies of a book called What has government done to our money. I'm Murray rothbar. You go to our website, scroll down to the bottom, and you can fill out a form online, and we'll send you free books and. You can educate yourself that way. And so just in general, I think that's what people need to do. I taught MBA students for many years who are people in their 30s or maybe even early 40s, who didn't have economics degrees, but they were really into it, and for the first time in their careers, they decided maybe I should understand how the economic world that I live in and work in every day operates rather than going through your life and your career without you. Might know all about real estate sales, but it's also useful to know about the economy in general and how things work.

Keith Weinhold 35:35

And when one becomes their own economic student and they take that on, I think it's important for them, like you touched on to not just consume the economic news that's on CNBC or other major media, because that doesn't really tell you how to create wealth. It might inform you, but it doesn't necessarily tell you how to take action. For example, on this show an educational channel, you might learn about a story about rising inflation like we had starting three or four years ago. And here we talk about how, okay, if inflation is going to be a long term economic force, you may or may not like what the Fed is doing, but rather than save money, borrow money, outsource that debt service to the tenant on a cash flowing asset like a single family home or an apartment building. And that inflation that you're learning about on CNBC will actually benefit you and debase your debt with prudent leverage on a property, for example, so not just consuming the news, but learning and educating yourself and acting.

Dr Thomas DiLorenzo 36:34

Oh, sure, well It just so happens that last night, I was talking to a friend of mine who's a real estate professional. They're all talking about, Oh, are we going to have a slight drop in interest rates? And I reminded them that there will be a part of the market if they see it, if we do have a slight drop in interest rates, we'll look at that and say, well, maybe this is a new trend. And so I'll sit back and I'll wait. I'm not going to buy now, because I think the interest rates are going to go down even further in the next six months there were, there would be some segment of the market that thinks that way. And so that's just one little thing. Another thing I would mention is that one of the basic tenets of free market economics is that voluntary trade is mutually beneficial. People buy and sell from each other, because both sides benefit. And that's very important for any business person to keep in mind as you structure business deals, because you know about business deal that is successful is basically, I will give you what you want, and you give me what I want, and we're both happy. And that's that's one of the main tenets of how the market works. Voluntary exchange is mutually beneficial. So think about how to make it mutually beneficial, and you'll succeed in making a deal.

Keith Weinhold 37:45

Well, it's been an excellent discussion on Is there any capitalism left, and how would it look like if we turned the course and created more capitalism here in the United States? It's been great having you on the show.

Dr Thomas DiLorenzo 37:58

Thank you.

Keith Weinhold 38:05

Yeah , again, Learn more @mises.org or look up books by Dr Thomas DiLorenzo. His viewpoint is that there are now merely islands of capitalism in a sea of socialism where those conditions were inverted last century. We've got to end the complex between the government and corporations that these watchdogs are basically powerless when the fox is guarding the henhouse. Dr dilorezzo says we could change the Fed charter so that they couldn't buy bonds, which should reduce inflation. So he does offer a way forward there, a solution. In capitalism, he consumer is king. This is a good thing. You yourself are empowered because you get to vote with your dollars. So therefore what you buy more of society will see and make more of but a prosperous, progressive economy that should be able to produce goods and services that are constantly cheaper because they get more and more efficient to make with innovation, but centrally planned inflation makes them more expensive, at least in dollar denominated terms. So progress should make things cheaper? Well, then everything should take fewer dollars to buy, homes, oil, bananas, grapes, but it doesn't, and it won't anytime soon, like I mentioned in the interview, there single family build times are taking even longer. That's not more efficient, and they're sure not getting cheaper. In fact, the National Association of Home Builders tells us that from permit to completion in 2015 it took 7.2 months to build a single family home. By 2019 it was up to 8.1 months and then. Last year, the time required to build a single family home from permit to completion was 10.1 months. That's not the side of an efficient economy. So basically, therefore, in the last eight, nine years, the time to build a home has gone from 7.2 months up to 10.1 months. That is a drastic increase in a short period of time. Just amazing. And we now have data after covid as well, broken down by region. The longest build time, by the way, is in New England, where it is 13.9 months to build a home from permit to completion. Gosh, such inefficiency. But despite all that stuff that you might find discouraging like that, I want to go out on a good news note here some encouraging sentiment for you, if you champion free markets, then invest in us rental property down the road, there is no centrally controlled ceiling on what you can sell your property for. Most places don't have rent control. In fact, there's been no federal rent control on private property since World War Two. And somewhat ironically, you benefit. You actually benefit from government backed loans at these low fixed rates, and now they're moderate fixed rates. You often get these through Fannie Freddie or the FHA. See you benefit from that particular government backing as a savvy borrower for rental property. And on top of this, you use the GRE inflation triple crown to flip over that not so capitalistic inflationary force. You flip it upside down and use it to your benefit, profiting fantastically from inflation. So you know how to take the situation you're given and use it to your advantage rather than your detriment. Big thanks to Dr Thomas DiLorenzo today, longtime econ professor and current Mises Institute president, more ways to build Real Estate Wealth coming up here for you on the show in future weeks, as always, with the dash of economics and wealth mindset. Until then, I'm your host. Keith Weinhold, Don't Quit Your Daydream.

42:28

Keith Weinhold 42:56

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Mon, 23 September 2024

Keith discusses his journey from an entitlement mentality to realizing the importance of wealth creation through real estate investing and shares the real estate shockwave that nobody is talking about.

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519: Threatening New Taxes You Might Need to Pay. Tom Wheelwright Explains.

Complete episode transcript:

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Keith Weinhold 00:01

Keith, welcome to GRE. I'm your host. Keith Weinhold, I'll discuss when I was an employee with a scarcity mindset, the real estate shock wave coming that no one's talking about, then, how you can ethically use other people's money to build wealth for yourself before you even own a property today, on get rich education.

00:24

Since 2014 the powerful get rich education podcast has created more passive income for people than nearly any other show in the world. This show teaches you how to earn strong returns from passive real estate investing in the best markets without losing your time being a flipper or landlord. Show Host Keith Weinhold rights for both Forbes and Rich Dad advisors, who delivers a new show every week since 2014 there's been millions of listener downloads of 188 world nations. He has a list show guests include top selling personal finance author Robert Kiyosaki. Get rich education can be heard on every podcast platform, plus it has its own dedicated Apple and Android listener phone apps build wealth on the go with the get rich education podcast. Sign up now for the get rich education podcast, or visit get rich education.com

Corey Coates 01:09

You're listening to the show that has created more financial freedom than nearly any show in the world. This is get rich education.

Keith Weinhold 01:25

welcome to GRE from Springfield Ohio to Springfield, Missouri and across 188 nations worldwide. I'm Keith Weinhold, and you are listening to get rich education. It's great to have you back for another week, and I genuinely appreciate your listenership, and I am grateful to have such a large audience. I've got to tell you, admittedly, coming out of college and in my first couple full time jobs, I wasn't always a good employee. I guess I had somewhat of an entitlement mentality. I'm not sure where that came from. I don't know that I can blame anyone else on planning it inside me. I don't know where I got this notion. It sure wasn't from my parents, but I kind of felt like somebody owed me a job just because I have a college degree and I'm good at showing up on time, yeah, like, I'm just a good representative for your company. I mean, now I can see that no one owed me a doggone thing. In fact, I owed my employer value. An employer actually takes a big risk on you when they hire you, paying you to train you until you're productive there. I mean, the hiring process itself is even expensive. Well, though I felt like someone owed me a job just out of college, somewhat Oppositely, I never expected any sort of high income at all, and I had quite a modest income in my first couple years out of college, just like a lot of recent college grads do, until it grew into something more. But my humble geography degree, it conditioned me to think lower income. I knew that going to college in Pennsylvania for geography in what interested me, I mean, that's what I went with, what interested me not what I could make money in well, then I couldn't find a job in my geography field at all. No one would really pay me to describe Asia's mountain ranges to them. So what I ended up doing is working under engineers at a construction and engineering firm, a few of them, one engineering firm really liked me and designated me as their new marketing person. Of all things, they wanted me to call prospective clients on the phone and meet them cold in person, because they just thought somehow, when they met me, that I could win new business for the engineering firm, just I guess, based on how I communicated with other people at other engineering companies, even though I couldn't even talk the language of engineering. Well, anyway, these disciplines engineering, and really it was construction inspection that I did for a while. You know, that stuff, even the marketing stuff, it just didn't fill my soul. And you must have felt this way at your job before. If you don't feel it perpetually, you aren't aligned with your purpose on this earth, and you're spending so many of your faculties and so much of your waking conscious life at that job. Well, motivation to escape that is what got me reading about wealth mindset and real estate investing. Since anyone can do it, no degree needed, no certification, zero formal qualification. And now I think I mentioned this to you before, but it's worth bringing up here again, a turning point is when I read one life changing sentence, just one little what is it? A. Five word sentence in a rich dad book, that pivotal paradigm shifting, course correcting sentence was, being wealthy is a choice. And when I first read being wealthy is a choice, I just didn't believe it. I thought that Robert Kiyosaki, the author, was wrong. Well now I know that he was right. I had thought that being rich is unobtainable. You had to be born into it, so unless you won the lottery, you can't achieve more than middle class. Well, I was wrong about that. Now I can't really say something like, oh, well, a college professor said that rich people are bad or, you know, I don't have that story. I can't blame anyone else for growing up with a limited, scarcity mindset, really, other than myself in the context that was created around me. I mean, growing up in Pennsylvania, I just knew that the carts family and the domileskeys, they had more than us. And that's just the way it would always be. It's sort of preordained, and other families had less than us, and these family trajectories were just cast in stone as to how it had to be. But the good news is that it's not, and this is still what makes America great, the fact that it takes zero formal training, zero risk parents, and not even a high salary for you to do something like get a three and a half percent down payment loan for owner occupied FHA fourplex or 20% down for a single family rental that produces income from day one in The Southeast or Midwest, you can plant that seed that get other people's money working for you seed in just that way, even if you're interested in something as unprofitable as geography. Now, a huge reason that people disparage the wealthy is rooted in jealousy and envy, and that is not good. There's no goodness in those emotions, and that is because people don't think it's obtainable for them. It's obtainable for almost anybody. Learning that it is within your reach that completely breaks down your resentment of the rich. Yes, indeed, being wealthy is a choice. Well, people are obtaining wealth in today's real estate market. Here, Redfin reported that through the latest quarter ended real estate investors bought fully one in four of the nation's most affordable homes. That's up 3% year over year. And as Redfin puts it, it's a sign that investor activity is stabilizing, and as homeownership remains out of reach for many Americans, real estate investors are coming out of hibernation to take advantage of robust demand from renters. So investors are buying a greater proportion of affordable homes, some of them through our marketplace, GRE marketplace. Now over the long term, let's think about how US housing is going to be positioned for sustainable demand. Demography is destiny. That's a quote attributed to 19th century philosopher Auguste coon Tay, it means that the size and structure of a population will influence its future. So then all we need to do is track the age of a population over time to sharpen and give clarity to a forecast. It is axiomatic that in 10 years, a 25 year old will be 35 No kidding. Well, what's important about the age of 35 is that is the average age of today's first time homebuyer. It's between 35 and 36 All right. Well, the US is peak birth year occurred in 2007 we know that just look at demographics. Well, then add 35 to it. Add 35 years to 2007 This means that, on average, they will buy their first home in the early 2040s a lot of people are going to be forming their first household, whether it's rent or buy around the year 2040, I mean, the peak in all of American history, a lot more people will need homes. In fact, more than 13,000 Americans are turning age 35 every single day for the foreseeable future for more than a decade. This year is the first year where we've ever had over 13,000 Americans turning 35 every single day. And that is projected to continue to happen every single year through 2035 and that's as late as the Census Bureau projection that I have goes on. On that stat this baked in demographic housing demand. Hey, if we don't get serious about building more housing fast, and it's likely that we won't, this will be analogous to a demographic shock wave that hits the housing market. The population aging into homeownership is projected to exceed the population aging out, as in the death rate for a long time. This will pump housing demand, and that's not all. I've only talked domestically so far. This doesn't even account for additional demand from immigration. And immigrants tend to be younger and are renters for a long duration, or just forever. On top of immigration, the average number of people per household is falling as well. In 1960 3.3, people live per household in 1990 it was down to 2.6 by 2023 it was down to 2.5 this means that more housing is required just in order to shelter the same population. But of course, the population won't stay static. So to keep piling on with the housing demand here, the overall US population is projected to grow as well, from 342 million today to 383 million in 30 years. That's per the CBO. The demographics for senior housing are even more bullish. And of course, when I use the word bullish like this, this bullish sentiment that's from the investor side. If you're looking to buy your first home or find a place to rent, this is all more discouraging than perhaps all of our perpetual struggles to live a balanced life or lose weight. This baked into the cake. Demand is almost perfectly predictable, and it's of seismic importance to the real estate market. And yet, despite that fact, you know, more investors curiously fixate for month after month on something like the Fed's interest rate decision or the next jobs report. I mean, this is both harder to predict and way less significant than the sustainable demographic demand for rental housing that you got right there. So really, to sum up, this segment demographics reveal that housing demand should stay high for decades, long term, then you should expect higher home prices, higher occupancy rates and higher rents. And you can benefit by owning many rental properties. And our guest and I are about to discuss how you can do exactly that own many rental properties, and how to do it efficiently with less cash out of your pocket, including how you can start using other people's money before you even own a property when you're trying to qualify for a loan on a rental property, in some cases, you can Use a portion of the tenant's rent income toward your qualification income. Let's talk with this week's guest. There's one place that's created more financial freedom through real estate than any other lender in the entire nation that's time for a big welcome back to their president, Caeli Ridge.

Caeli Ridge 13:23

Keith Weinhold, my friend, thank you for having me happy to be here, sir.

Keith Weinhold 13:26

Oh, it's so good to have you here. You're a longtime friend of the show and so many of our listeners that you've helped originate investor mortgage loans. Caeli leads Ridge lending group. They're an investor centric lender. She does such a good concise job of explaining specifically what real estate investors need to know in optimizing your loan positions. In fact, on a previous episode, she once broke down every single line of a closing disclosure form for us one by one, detailing each individual closing cost and prepaid item and in there, besides being specific income property loan experts, they're really thorough and helpful that way. Well, Caeli, tell us about the key differences between owner occupied mortgage loans for buying a primary residence and investor mortgage loans for a rental property.

Caeli Ridge 14:17

The key things are that on a rental property, probably the biggest difference is going to be that for a rental property, there's additional incomes that potentially we get to use to help offset that new monthly liability, aka the mortgage payment, p, i, t i, principal, interest, tax and insurance, we have access to income potentially to help offset that. So in the debt to income ratio category, it can be a huge boon or a huge benefit, depending on what the individual's qualifications are. Additionally, in that same theme, we're not just confined to a conventional Fannie Freddie loan for investors. We have things like the DSCR debt service coverage ratio that you would not be able to apply to a primary residence, but also allows for income to help identify whether the property qualifies for financing.

Keith Weinhold 15:04

So for prospective investor borrower is wondering whether we'll have enough income to qualify for that property or not. Is it a certain percentage of the tenants rent income that is used in the investor borrowers qualification income?

Caeli Ridge 15:19

absolutely, so conventional full doc mortgages they are going to receive in the acquisition year formula, because there's two formulas that will be used in underwriting. One is called the acquisition year. The other one is called the Schedule E I'll focus on the acquisition year. This is applicable from the date that they acquire the property and until that tax year's Federal tax return is filed. I needed to find up to in a minute they get up to 75% of the gross rents minus the proposed p, i, t, I, principal, interest, tax and insurance. Now I say up to because it depends on two primary criteria that the borrower must possess in order to get the full 75% so think about it this way. There's three buckets. Okay, the first bucket gets the full 75% of whatever the gross rents are. The easy math example that I give, let's say that the gross rents are $1,000 a month. The PI ti proposed payment is 500 a month. If they're in bucket number one, and they get the full 75% of 1000 they have 750 bucks, right? And from that they're going to subtract out the $500 of mortgage payment. In that example, it would leave them with a gain positive 250 so that individual came to us with a debt to income ratio of x as a result of purchasing this investment property, their DTI is going to go down because they're $250 richer monthly. So 75% is the maximum you can use in the acquisition year. That individual in that bucket has to demonstrate two things. One, they have a primary housing expense, whether that's a mortgage or they rent, either is fine. And then second, they need to be able to demonstrate that they can they've had 12 months of history in owning investment property. So if they have both of those two things, they get the full 75 if they have one or the other, they're in bucket number two, which gives us an offset. They cannot have the full 75% they don't get the full gain, but I can offset. So going back to my example, using $1,000 of income and $500 of mortgage payment, they can't have the 250 gain, but I can give them up to 500 making that a zero, right? It's covered completely the mortgage payment. It's not increased any debt or anything in the example. So DTI would stay exactly the same as where they began, when we started. And then finally, bucket number three would mean that individuals that have neither of those two things, no primary they live rent free, no primary house expense, and they do not have 12 months demonstrated history currently, of being an investor. They get zero of the rental income, so they've got to support the full new payment within their DTI and keep it within that 50% threshold. So that was a long explanation to the question, but I think that that pretty much covers it.

Keith Weinhold 17:56

Now, That's really helpful. Okay, that can help the borrower's debt to income ratio. I guess a lot of cases is going to be helping it out by a small amount. What if, say that investors buying a new build rental property and there is no tenant, hence no rent income there yet.

Caeli Ridge 18:11

I'm so glad you asked. So on a subject property basis, that is the property in which they're purchasing at the moment in time. It's called the subject property. Those properties do not need to be tenant occupied. We can use assumptive rental income from the appraisal on a rental property that will come with some additional forms. It's called a 1007, it's just the number on the page. Those are rental income comps. The appraiser has given us an average of what those rents are going to be, and that's what we're going to use the 75% calculation on.

Keith Weinhold 18:41

Okay, that's really good to know new build or resale rental property, that's going to work the same with either one there. Now I know oftentimes that one wants to qualify. When we look at non order occupied properties, rental properties with conventional conforming loans from Fannie or Freddie, typically, one puts 20% down on those properties we've talked before. I think one can put as little as 15% down, although they would have PMI in that case, or alternatively, rather than putting 20% down, last time I checked, they could put 25% down and get a lower interest rate. So can you talk to us about the interplay of the percent down payment for rental property.

Caeli Ridge 19:21

I'll start by saying, more often than not, when you do the math the capital expenditure, or in this case, the difference between 5% down 80 versus 75% divided by the monthly payment difference, you're going to find that the leverage is going to outperform the higher 80% will outperform the lower 75% but absolutely, to your point, the payment is going to be less for two reasons. At the 75% level, the interest rate will be lower because you've got more skin in the game. The interest rate, loan level, price adjustment for 75% is going to be more attractive than it will be at 20% down. So the rate will be lower. And of course. The loan amount is lower, so both of those combined characteristics are going to create better cash flow, it's true, and a lower monthly payment. However, the math that I always want to promote, that people are doing is looking at it side by side, all you have to do, and it's actually much easier than people, I think, assume. So you figure out the capital expenditure difference. Let's just use 100 grand, okay, because his math is simple. So you've got $5,000 in additional capital that you'd be bringing to the table for the 75% option, right? Versus retaining the five grand, the payment difference is 50 bucks a month. Okay? Whatever the number is, all you're going to do is take the five grand and divide that by the payment difference, and that will give the individual the number of months it takes them to recapture that capital for the savings. Generally, my opinion, per an investment property is that if that number is in excess of 36 months, it's going to take you over 30 or three years to recapture that capital versus the savings. I'd keep my money because I can do one of a few things with it. If I chose to, I could cash flow the 50 bucks myself every month for 100 months, if that was the math. Or I could apply that five grand and use it with some other monies, perhaps, and buy another investment property, or put it in different investment asset class that would provide a return so more often than not, when they do that math, my belief is, when I do it, I'd say even 95% of the time, the higher the leverage is going to be, the better return numbers.

Keith Weinhold 21:27

We're philosophically aligned that way. We're leveraged proponents here, typically the smaller down payment, 20% is going to be better for you long term than 25% even though you'll get a somewhat lower interest rate on a rental property, putting 25% down rather than 20% when we pull back, we look at the interest rate difference between an owner occupied property and a rental property. What is the spread between the interest rate? Of course, you're going to pay higher interest rate on a rental property because it's a lot less likely that the borrower is going to walk away from their own home than they would a rental property.

Caeli Ridge 22:02

exactly and this is a great segue into those LLPAs that I always like that we spend some time talking about. So llpa, loan level, price adjustment. So for the GRE listeners, this is a more complicated concept, so I'm going to try and quickly break it down. Keith loves it when I get so wordy. So llpa is a positive or a negative number that associates with the individual characteristics of the loan transaction. So one of those characteristics, obviously, is occupancy. The loan level price adjustment for a primary residence versus an investment property is quite different, and for the reasons exactly that you described, there's a lot less risk in a primary then there will be in a rental. Because if an individual needs to choose between defaulting on where they live and an investment property, if it came down to that, obviously they're going to maintain, yeah, so they got to choose. So skin in the game, risk, etc, generally speaking. And there's all those other variables too, credit score, loan size, loan to value, property type, purchase versus refi, those are all unique llpas That will have their own unique number. But in general terms, an owner occupied where you live is typically going to price out an interest rate about one percentage point lower than you would find on an investment property, generally, if we're comparing apples to apples.

Keith Weinhold 23:15

talking about that risk difference for the lender, just like in the 20% versus 25% down. Example, there's less risk for the lender when you put 25% skin in the game. Hence the lower interest rate there too. Caeli, tell us about fitting the right mortgage type to the borrower. And of course, there are so many types. There's 30 year versus 15 year, fixed rate mortgages versus Adjustable Rate Mortgages, interest only, DSCR loans like you touched on. So tell us about getting that right fit for that individual borrower.

Caeli Ridge 23:49

This is a bit of a rabbit hole. So what I would start by saying is we do at Ridge take a lot of time on the front end and identifying not only what their needs are, their goals are, but obviously what their qualifications are, and marrying all of those things together and coming up with a roadmap that I like to call it, depending on where the individual is in their journey of real estate investing, as the tax returns may continue to be filed, and how aggressive they want to be with their deductions, maybe some cost segregation. I know I'm getting a little bit technical here, but because we maintain and have all of those products, it's very, very uncommon, or very rare, that we find an investor, potential client, that we do not have some sort of loan product to satisfy what their end game or end goal is. And you know, maybe we continue to graduate them. Let's say that they start in a DSCR because they can't qualify for Fannie Freddie today, but that is their ultimate goal. We're going to provide them with the insight and the background or the feedback that plants the seeds and gets them to that place in six months or a year, or whatever. So I hope I answered the question, depending on their individual needs and goals and qualifications, of course, really will dictate which one of those is going to be applicable.

Keith Weinhold 25:00

We've got a lot more to discuss, including, is it easier to approve w2 incomes from a day job versus 1099 from contract or gig work? And more, we're talking with the nation's foremost expert on income property. She is the president of ridge lending group, Caeli ridge. More, we come back. I'm your host. Keith Weinhold. hey, you can get your mortgage loans at the same place where I get mine, at Ridge lending group and MLS, 42056, they provided our listeners with more loans than any provider in the entire nation because they specialize in income properties. They help you build a long term plan for growing your real estate empire with leverage, you can start your pre qualification and chat with President Chaley Ridge personally. Start now while it's on your mind at Ridge lendinggroup.com. That's ridgelendinggroup.com. Your bank is getting rich off of you, the national average bank account pays less than 1% on your savings. If your money isn't making 4% you're losing your hard earned cash to inflation. Let the liquidity fund help you put your money to work with minimum risk, your cash generates up to an 8% return with compound interest year in and year out. Instead of earning less than 1% sitting in your bank account, the minimum investment is just 25k you keep getting paid until you decide you want your money back. Their decade plus track record proves they've always paid their investors 100% in full and on time. And I would know, because I'm an investor two, earn 8% hundreds of others are text family, 266, 866, learn more about freedom. Family investments, liquidity fund on your journey to financial freedom through passive income. Text family, 266, 866

Robert Kiyosaki 27:00

This is Rich Dad, Poor Dad Author Robert Kiyosaki, listen to get rich education with Keith Weinhold, Don't Quit Your Daydream.

Keith Weinhold 27:18

Welcome back to get rich education. We're talking with Ridge lending Group President Chaley ridge. These discussions are great, because debt, through leverage, builds wealth even faster than compound interest, as I've discussed, and Caeli is really the linchpin in her company, and help makes that happen with reliable income property loans and Caeli today, there are a lot more people with sharing economy income, gig economy income, or doing contract work, and they're paid with a 1099 form that shows their income for that year, versus a w2 employee wage job. So can you tell us about whether it's easier to approve those that have a w2 income and that versus the 1099

Caeli Ridge 28:03

I don't know that I would classify it as easier as harder. It's just different. So on the 1099 first and foremost, if you don't have a 24 month history of having that kind of income, you're not going to get a conventional loan. And assuming that we're going to kind of keep on that path of Fannie Freddie's. Because remember, guys, if you can't fit into those boxes. We've got 10 others that we can look to to get the financing for. But if we're in the Fannie Freddie, that's really where this is applicable, the 1099 and the w2 I mean, they're really equal in terms of the overall process. The difference would be that with 1099 you must have that 24 month history. The calculation is that we're going to take an average, it gets a little bit convoluted, like anything else that is leverage or financing related, but a 24 month average of 1099 unless we can show that that individual, let's say that they're self employed and maybe a Schedule C, and they've got their 1099 coming in through that way. If they can show five year history of having license or being self employed that way, that instead of having to use a 24 month average, we'll use a 12 month average, and that may be to their advantage. Let's say that the most recent year filed is in a bit of a decline from the prior year. Let's just use 2022 and 23 let's say 23 is a little bit lower than 22 a 24 month average is not going to be as big a number than if I were to just to be able to take the 12 month average of the most recent year. So if that individual can demonstrate they have five years of being or receiving that kind of income, then instead of being a 24 month average, I get to choose and just do the 12 month average. So that would be one thing about the 1099 that I would say otherwise, yeah, they're just different. I don't know that one is harder than the other. As long as the qualifications are there, they're there.

Keith Weinhold 29:43

When I think about this, I guess it does make sense from the lender perspective. If you're paid and shown income there on your 1099 from sharing economy work, gig economy work, or being self employed, that's more volatile work than having a day job. Um, as an employee.

Caeli Ridge 30:01

Sure, absolutely. And if you can demonstrate that you have that history and you've been able to consistently earn and have those numbers, it's okay, yeah, but without the 24 months, you're not going to get a conventional loan. You're gonna have to look at DSCR or something else.

Keith Weinhold 30:15

We're talking about what it takes to qualify for income property loans today with Ridge lending Group President Caeli Ridge, when we talk about that qualification bar that needs to be met. Caeli, you see so many loan applications in there. You have a team. You look at and deal with so many situations when you're free, you even pick up the phone, sometimes yourself, and you will talk to individual borrowers. So what do you see in there as the top reasons for not qualifying for an income property loan.

Caeli Ridge 30:42

The top reasons for not qualifying for a conventional loan probably is debt to income ratio, yeah, more often than not of the three basic criteria, which are assets, enough cash to close or reserves, credit and then DTI, I would say it's the DTI category that more often than not, is the culprit for qualifying or not. And it may be as simple as how they filed their last year's tax return and saying, Okay, before you file 2024 don't do that until you send Ridge a draft, so that we can get ahead of what you may not have known to look for last time. They could be very simple, little easy fixes. And you know, sometimes maybe it's they don't want to pay the extra taxes, which sometimes that might be required. In which case we say, okay, let's pivot over to the DSCR options. In which case, by the way, just as a quick sidebar, I'm finding that gap is starting to narrow a little bit to the point that it's a lot more affordable in terms of the investment property and what cash flow is expected than it used to be. The differences between a Fannie Freddie rate and a DSCR rate is starting to narrow a little bit. So if you have to be DSCR, I would not shy away from that just because you assume I think it's going to be more reasonable for cash flow properties.

Keith Weinhold 31:52

Yeah, I'll tell you, when I was an employee as a day job worker grinding in my eight by 10 cubicle, as it was back in the day, and I was buying income properties. Yeah, the main thing I would get held up on is that my debt to income ratio, my DTI, was too high, and my salary was pretty strong, although not fantastic, not astronomically high, but I felt like I was a guy that was pretty good, pretty prudent with my finances. And yeah, it didn't feel good to be told hey, Keith, to lower your DTI. You need to pay off your 3% automobile loan that's at a nice fixed interest rate. I didn't want to have to do that, but I was willing to do that to retire the small loan in order to qualify for the big loan.

Caeli Ridge 32:36

That makes sense. I might just offer a comment in that regard. What you may have experienced at that time could have been what we call an overlay in the industry. So, yes, like anything, right? Lenders aren't created equal. Because we're so investor friendly and focused, we are going to go by the purest form of those Fannie Freddie guidelines. It's called a seller's guide. And as an example, let's just say that Fannie Freddie gives you 75% of the subject properties, gross rents, whereas B of A or I'm just picking on B of I don't know why, but some other lender may impose an overlay. It's like layers of risk and saying, No, we're not going to give you any rental income credit whatsoever, even though the guideline says that we can do it, our overlay says, No, we can't. So depending on who you're working with, credit unions are a little notorious for that being a little bit more restrictive in their box of guideline. So it may not always be what you think. So if you've had a lender, tell you DTI wise, you don't qualify, but you feel like this is not quite right. You should double check that, because it may be an overlay.

Keith Weinhold 33:34

Everyone is interested in interest rates. It's been so interesting with what's happened the past few years, ever really, since the covid Emergency cut took place in 2020 and the volatility that we've seen in interest rates, then we saw interest rates max out in this cycle at about 8% almost a year ago. What does this declining interest rate environment mean at a mortgage loan company? And what do you see for the future of rates there?

Caeli Ridge 34:02

Well, rates have been coming down. If you guys are watching the headlines, you're seeing those sound bites. We have started to see some more refinance activity than we were seeing before, certainly additional purchases as we start to see interest rates come down, I am of the opinion that we're going to continue to see some improvement in the rate department, dependent on some of the jobs reports that we'll be getting soon, so we'll see. But My money is on that, we'll continue to see some nice tailwind in the rate department throughout the rest of the year, and who knows what's going to happen? I mean, this is our election year, etc. We'll see how the rest of it plays out.

Keith Weinhold 34:33

How does a prospective borrower get their financial house in order themselves before getting a hold of you and your team there, what are some of those checklist items that they should do themselves at home first?

Caeli Ridge 34:47

like I said a bit ago, so you've got those three primary criteria. If you're wanting to qualify for those conventional full doc loans, think about your credit Do you know what that credit score is? Now, depending on some other variables, it doesn't have to be 800 Credit scores to qualify. I mean, we've got clients as low as 650 that are able to get financing conventionally, because they've got compensating factors, similarly for assets on the investment property side, the down payment and the closing costs and the reserves, none of those things can be borrowed or gifted. And that's very different than if it was an owner occupied, gifted and borrowed funds are okay for an owner occupied, for an investment property, they have to be sourced and seasoned, meaning your own funds over the last 60 days. So think about that. What your down payment is going to be an estimate of closing costs and make sure that you have the appropriate amount of capital. And then finally, that debt to income ratio. That's a slippery or one to try and calculate that for yourselves. But if you think about your minimum payments on your credit report. That's really all that goes into it. Minimum payments, not the debt load. The minimum payments on the credit report divided by the monthly income, gross income, you should be able to come up with a number, and 50% is that threshold. So if you can kind of just take that kind of mental back of the napkin of your own, you should have a pretty good gage on whether or not you think you're going to be in this box, or if getting into the game, or continuing to be in the game, is going to require some alternative loan types.

Keith Weinhold 36:05

Inflation has been such a story for the past three or four years, but some people aren't aware that there's actually been credit score inflation. Last time I checked, the average credit score had been slowly rising in the United States. What's the highest credit score that gets one the lowest rate.

Caeli Ridge 36:22

We're staying in the Fannie Freddie department, 760 and above is all the same bucket, if the individual qualifications are identical, if this one has an 850 credit and this one has a 760 credit, exactly the same in the interest rate department.

Keith Weinhold 36:35

And then, once they've engaged with you, what about locking in their interest rate. What duration did they have prior to closing? Tell us about that timeline.

Caeli Ridge 36:45

So an interest rate can be locked on a 15 day lock, a 30 day lock, a 45 day lock, even a 60 or 90 day lock, typically it's a 30 day lock that's the average. The shorter the period of lock, the better the rate and or points that you would pay. And the longer is the adverse right? The higher the rate of the higher the points. I like to look at locking an interest rate, usually when we get the appraisal back, because an appraisal can be the piece that might delay or there may be some issues. So I generally like to see the appraisal first. We've been in such a volatile area with interest rates and what might be happening in the ups and downs, etc. I've broken that rule quite a few times over the last couple of years, I would say today, floating may be to our advantage, just because we feel like rates are on the run and that they may continue to improve. Keeping in mind, once you lock in your interest rate, it is locked. Ridge does have a policy that if interest rates were to fall five, eight of a percentage point or point 625, you would have a one time automatic float down option. It's highly unlikely, and that's why we can kind of put that in there. But if it happened, we would honor that. Otherwise, when you're locked, you're stuck with that rate. You can't expect that if an eight through a quarter point comes off of or rates come down that much, that you're going to get a different rate. The only way to do that would be to let the existing one expire for 30 days and then relock market, which is not advisable.

Keith Weinhold 37:59

Yeah, you the investor, has to think about how important a lock really is to you in this declining interest rate environment, almost everyone expects mortgage rates to fall more slowly than they rose. They spiked up so fast in 2022 Caeli, how does our audience engage with you? Get Started and go on their path to getting investment property loans.

Caeli Ridge 38:24

Three ways to reach us. Obviously, we've got our website. Please check us out there. There's a lot of good information, ridgelendinggroup.com you can email us at info@ridgelendinggroup.com, and then finally, toll free is 855-747-4343 855-74RIDGE is that easy way to remember, and we'll be here on standby. Thanks, Keith.

Keith Weinhold 38:43

Ridge is the same place where I get my income property loans. It's been great having you back on the show. Thank you. Yeah, strong. Well laid out material from cheyley here, as always, let me give us a perspective on creating value by having a good loan rather than not having the debt. Remember that just four weeks ago, here on Episode 516 it was the episode about is every debt worth paying off? And the short answer is no. I got a couple questions from listeners of that episode basically asking the same thing. Well, just say that interest rates are 6% and basically they're asking, well, if I pay all cash for a property or for a car, it doesn't matter what it is, then I avoid paying 6% interest. So right there is my six points of arbitrage. Well, to that, I say, okay, but look what if you think you can achieve a 12% investment return? Borrowing at six to invested 12 is a 6% spread. That's 6% arbitrage as well. But here's the thing, you've got a big advantage of doing this with the loan rather than the paid off condition. This is because. With the loan, you still have the use of your money. You haven't given it away. You still have your money, plus the six points of arbitrage in the paid off condition. You've got six points of arbitrage and you don't have the use of the money any longer. That's the big difference, and that's the value of having a loan, as long as you can service the payments. Getting back to mortgage loans, in today's episode, there are so many loan types for property, conventional, Fannie, Freddie's, dscrs, Portfolio loans, bridge loans, rehab loans, recourse and non recourse loan types, balloon loans, arms and a lot more. Caeli and I didn't discuss their all in one loan, which is like a big, flexible HELOC that you can put on your property. It's such a good product that can help you. You can ask about their all in one loan. When it comes down to what are the factors you need to be most attentive to? They are your assets, reserves, credit, income and debt to income ratio, unless dependent on the loan type that you want. So much attention is paid to interest rates, and some attention is warranted. They surely matter. Be mindful, though, that a quarter of a percent interest rate change on a 30 year loan per 100k borrowed that is just a difference of about $15 in monthly payment, $15 if you go from, say, 6% down to five and three quarters percent, so it takes a rate drop of a full 1% for a savings of about $60 then once you have some of Your finances in order, you can go ahead and do just what I've done for my own properties. For your next income property loan, you can give them a call or start at Ridgelendinggroup.com Until next week, I'm your host. Keith Weinhold, Don't Quit Your Daydream.

41:58

Keith Weinhold 42:18

The preceding program was brought to you by your home for wealth building, getricheducation.com.

Direct download: GREepisode520_.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 4:00am EST

Mon, 16 September 2024

Tom Wheelwright is back by popular demand, our most recurring guest in GRE show history. He’s a CPA, an International Authority on Tax, and Best Selling Author of “Tax-Free Wealth” amongst many other titles. We focus on the potential unrealized capital gains tax, which would tax the increase in property value even before sale. Tom explains the implications of this proposal and the broader impact on tax policy.

We cover the Democrats' proposal for capital gains tax at ordinary income rates, capital gains on gifts, and capital gains when you die.

The proposal for a billionaires tax, which would tax unrealized gains at $100 million, could potentially extend to lower net worth individuals over time.

Real estate income can result in a negative tax rate, increasing cash flow after taxes.

Learn about the benefits of working with a knowledgeable tax advisor.

Resources:

GetRichEducation.com/tax

Show Notes:

GetRichEducation.com/519

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Get mortgage loans for investment property:

RidgeLendingGroup.com or call 855-74-RIDGE

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518: Is Now the Best Time to Buy Real Estate?

Complete episode transcript:

Automatically Transcribed With Otter.ai

Keith Weinhold 00:01

Welcome to GRE. I'm your host. Keith Weinhold, this week we're talking about the value of the raw land that comes along with your property, the importance of an as built survey in real estate. Then it's tax topics with pro Tom wheelwright, the specter of an unrealized capital gains tax, higher capital gains tax rates, how gambling is taxed, and how to permanently reduce your overall tax burden. Today on get rich education,

00:33

since 2014 the powerful get rich education podcast has created more passive income for people than nearly any other show in the world. This show teaches you how to earn strong returns from passive real estate investing in the best markets without losing your time being a flipper or landlord. Show Host Keith Weinhold writes for both Forbes and Rich Dad advisors, and delivers a new show every week since 2014 there's been millions of listener downloads of 188 world nations. He has a list show guests and key top selling personal finance author Robert Kiyosaki, get rich education can be heard on every podcast platform, plus it has its own dedicated Apple and Android listener phone apps build wealth on the go with the get rich education podcast. Sign up now for the get rich education podcast or visit get rich education.com

Corey Coates 01:18

You're listening to the show that has created more financial freedom than nearly any show in the world. This is get rich education.

Keith Weinhold 01:34

Welcome to GRE from Essex County England to Essex, Massachusetts and across 188 nations worldwide. I'm Keith Weinhold. You're listening to get rich education before we talk taxes, let's talk about the land, the raw land, the lot that comes along with your property. Investors don't spend much time thinking about it. Yet the land is sometimes worth more than the home or structure that's on it, per the FHFA, land constitutes 32.2% of the value of the average US single family property in a metro area. Now the inexpensive land prices nationally, they are predominantly in what I'm classifying it as three US areas, the Midwest, the southeast and Appalachia well, where you have inexpensive land. Oh, that also happens to be where the cash flow for long term rentals resides. Land costs more by the water because people want water activities, water proximity and water view. So the lower costs are inland, and land also costs more by the water, because coasts and shorelines constrain development, sprawl that limits supply and a limited supply of buoys up prices. Consequently, the highest land values are mostly in the Northeast Corridor, from Boston to DC, Miami, coastal California and Honolulu. Yes, Manhattan values are flat out extortionate for raw land now, Seattle, Madison, Wisconsin and Boulder, Colorado. They are three places with really high land values as well. Seattle and Madison are on geographic isthmus. And isthmus is a narrow strip of land with water on both sides. It's interesting how Nashville's nascent population influx made its land values surge inside a cheap sea of southeastern US land values now costly land areas like these ones that I've been talking about on the coasts, they could work well for short term vacation rentals like Airbnb and VRBO, your classic waterfront and beachfront weekly rentals, but they do not work for long term rental cash flow. Texas Land values are sort of low to medium. Land near the Mississippi River and its major tributaries have low costs because rivers are efficient transportation networks, prohibitively high land costs. That's one reason, actually, why alternative building methods just really aren't as cost effective as some people think. I'm talking about things like 3d printed homes, prefabbed homes, tiny homes and shipping container homes, well, all of them have got to sit on land, just like conventionally build homes do. And there is a land cost. Talk to a tear down specialist, and they'll tell you that in some older homes, 100% of the total value is in the l and. And in practicality, it's actually even more lopsided than that. The structure can have negative value because demolition is not free. So for you to get an idea yourself, your property tax bill, it's going to show you your split. That's where you'll see the assessed values broken out for both your structure and the land. So the bottom line here is that cash flowing properties have low land values, typically 25% or less of the total property value. That's generally what you want to look for. And I swear the only thing that's more barren than raw land is the creative naming process for new developments. There is such a lack of creativity in these development names. I'm talking about names like Willow Creek Estates, stone bridge crossing, or what else do they name a new housing development? How about VISTA, view heights? They all have these idyllic sounding names that somehow just all sound like each other. Well, we're talking about raw land when you get in contract to buy a property, the seller side is expected to provide you with an as built, it often still comes in the form of an old fashioned piece of paper and as built survey, what it is is a plan view, a bird's eye or aerial view of your property. It's not a photograph, but a drawing, and it shows you the dimensions and the placement of structures on your property, and it includes things like fences and other features like easements. Now, lenders don't always require an as built before granting a loan, but it's a good idea to ask to see one before you wrap up your next deal. If you want to in your offer, you can even require that a recent as built be done by a surveying company. All right. Well, what exactly do you look for on an as built once you have one in hand, first see that the house or apartment building that you're buying is properly set back from the property lines to meet zoning requirements. If the six foot side setback is only five feet 10 inches, then you'll have to address that before you buy even if it's five feet 11 inches. Now it's possible that the jurisdiction that you're buying in will grant a letter of non conforming status, but if not, the structure is going to have to be adjusted. Another item to look for on an as built are encroachments. This is where part of a neighbor structure protrudes over the lot line and onto your property. And encroachment is really only acceptable if you're willing to grant the neighbor an easement in perpetuity for their encroachment onto your land. But why would you want to do that? The third thing that I want to mention that you should look for an as built is the existence of easements. An easement that just means that another party has a legal right to come over onto your land and use it. Yeah, and easements are actually quite common. It's not as threatening as it might sound. A common one is that as your as built would show, say, a five foot wide by 60 foot long easement. Is there that a utility company has access to. Well, that's something that makes sense. It's for the common good, but just be mindful that an easement cannot have a structure with a permanent foundation built on top of it, alright, because an electric company or a water company might have to excavate there. Most people think of easements on the raw land, but there are also aerial easements, for example, an overhead power line where the roof eaves are not allowed to intrude on that airspace. So to review what you learned so far today, the best cash flow properties typically have low land values, often about 25% or less of the tolerable property value. And an as built survey is an aerial view drawing of your property and its dimensions on an as built look to see that it meets zoning requirements like setbacks and look for encroachments and easements. It is resale properties where it's more important to look at as builts than it is for new construction properties. As we're about to bring in tax pro Tom Wheelwright shortly, business owners and real estate investors really get so many of the best tax breaks in the US Code. But you've got to know. How to find them, or else work then with a CPA that does know how to find them, that really knows how to navigate their way around the tax code, people that make high salaries pay high taxes, as much as 50% you remember I did that episode a few months ago, high salaries don't create wealth. Taxes are one big reason why, say, for example, a chiropractor makes $1.2 million a year in salary. But if that chiropractor becomes an investor by buying and selling other Chiropractic Clinics or investing in real estate, their tax rate will drop by half or more, and that's because capital gains tax rates are about half of ordinary income tax rates. So see, you don't want to be a super earner. You want to earn enough money to invest and become a super owner, but tax policy could change Tom and I will discuss that first. Then we'll talk about reducing the amount of tax that you pay. Today is a new punishing unrealized capital gains tax coming that you will have to pay. What this means is that if you have a $500,000 home, and it rises in value to $550,000 well, you would have to pay tax on your $50,000 of profit, but you haven't sold your home. So this feels so wrong, because you haven't realized any profit at all. This is what unrealized capital gains tax is. And also, where are you going to get the cash to pay the tax on your 50k of profit just because your home rose in value yet you didn't realize it? I mean, might you have to sell your home in order to get the cash to pay the tax. And then what if you though could pay the tax on your unrealized capital gain so you do pay it, but then the following year, the home goes down in value. Well, would you get a refund then? So the unrealized capital gains tax proposal is a mess. Let's learn about it and more. This week's guest is a best selling author, CPA and an international authority on tax. He's brilliant because he actually makes taxes fun, easy and understandable. He's familiar to you because he's the most recurrent guest in show history. Welcome back to GRE Tom Wheelwright.

Tom Wheelwright 12:48

thanks always good to be on your show.

Keith Weinhold 12:50

Tom probably with more than 30 show appearances here now you are 6% of GRE episodes.

Tom Wheelwright 13:00

That's a little scary. But you know, taxes are your single biggest expense, so why not?

Keith Weinhold 13:05

It's appropriate. And yeah, I guess all these appearances are certainly an endorsement of how much you help our audience. It's also a reflection of how tax and legal are not my strong suit. So it really helps to have you here absolutely the all time, assists leader in GRE history then and Tyler. An awful lot of timely tax topics going on that are probably first and foremost in more people's news feeds than they usually are. As we're here during presidential campaign season, the one that it really seems to revolve around the most is this potential tax proposal on unrealized gains. I've been around long enough where I seem to see this proposal come up more often, but it never seems to go anywhere. So first, why don't you tell us what unrealized gains are?

Tom Wheelwright 13:51

it actually goes beyond that. Interestingly enough, what the Democrats are proposing is, first of all, they're proposing capital gains rates at ordinary income rates. So they're proposing doubling the capital gains rate. That's actually as important as anything else. The second thing is, they're proposing capital gains on gifts. So if you give it, if you give your business to your child, you have a capital gains ordinary income rates. They're proposing capital gains when you die. So not only an estate tax, but also a capital gains tax. So then you get taxed twice when you die. So about 80 to 90% of your estate goes to the government when you die. If you're a business owner, as an example, then they're proposing eliminating the 1031 exchange, which would mean that on a trade of real estate, you'd have a capital gains tax at ordinary income rates. Then they're talking about this unrealized capital gains so if you do nothing but build your business or your real estate, the increase in value is subject to capital gains taxes at ordinary income rates. Now you know their proposal is, we have this tax. Tax when you're over $100 million that is not seem to be in the news feeds right now, but that's what it is. They call it the billionaires tax, and they're calling it an alternative minimum tax on billionaires. But clearly, 100 million is not a billion. That's only a 10th of a billion. And the biggest issue, of course, is if you tax unrealized gains at 100 million, soon you're going to tax them at 10 million, then it's going to be 1 million. Because history. That's the history of our tax law. The history of our tax law. Remember, in 1913 when we passed the 16th Amendment, it was passed because it was only a tax on the rich, right? It would never have passed if it was going to be a tax on the average person. And yet it passed. Because great, we're okay taxing somebody else, as long as it's not our tax. We're okay taxing somebody else. That's pretty much what's going on with this unrealized gains tax is, oh, well, it's on somebody else and they have enough money. It's no big deal. Therefore, I'm okay with that, because why shouldn't they pay more tax? That is what this is about. The challenge is, is, as we saw with the income tax, eventually it will reach the average person, or at least the average entrepreneur, real estate investor. Because think also, let's say that you build your wealth in real estate, and then when you retire, you say, Well, look, I don't want to be doing active real estate anymore. I'm going to trade my single family homes or my apartment building. I'm going to trade for a Walgreens a triple net lease, well under their proposal, that would be taxed because, again, no 1031 exchanges over $500,000 so that means that if you accumulate your wealth through business or real estate, you pay a much higher tax rate than if you accumulate your wealth by investing in Wall Street through a 401k because if you invest in Wall Street through a 401K, you only have to pay tax as you pull that out, you're not going to be paying tax on the value. Now that's assuming that they don't tax the increase in value of your 401K, which is also obviously a possibility. Interesting enough people talk a lot about the constitutionality of this. The challenge with that is that we already have taxes unrealized gains. If you're a dealer in stocks, in securities you do mark to market, that is meaning that you're going to pay tax on unrealized gains. And so there is actually precedent for this, and that's the scary thing, is that they could point to that precedent and say, Well, wait a minute, it's just an income tax, it's not a wealth tax, that's what they're going to say. They're going to say it's an income tax, not a wealth tax, because it's on appreciation, and appreciation is income. That's how they're going to go down this road. Will it start at $100 million Absolutely, that's where it will start. Will it then drift down? Who knows? But likely that's the history of our tax system. Yeah. I mean, we've talked before about the phenomenon of the camel getting its nose under the tent. However, in this case, I didn't realize there's already precedent for unrealized gains, in a sense, as potentially, if this is approved for those with $100 million net worth, and in next it's 10 million net worth, $1 million net worth and so on, like you described there, when you talk about capital gains tax rates being stepped up so that they're at ordinary income tax rates. It's actually somewhat of an interesting philosophical discussion, in a way. It sort of makes sense that a person's gains from investment could or should be taxed at the same rate as one's income when they go to their day job. However, why don't we do that by lowering income taxes rather than doubling capital gains? Wait a minute, no, because it's a double tax. Let's say that you're a business owner. Why does your business increase in value? Well, because you're making income, but you're already being taxed on that income. It's called income tax. What we do in this country, which a lot of countries don't do, by the way, is we tax it a second time. We call that a capital gains tax or a dividends tax. We tax it twice now. Now we're going to have that second tax at the same rate of the original tax. So if you think about it, you're being taxed on the same income twice because it's your income that determines your value, so you're being taxed twice. It's really not the same. It's fine if you're invested in the stock market, and that's where your capital gains are. That's a hard one to argue too much, although it does take liquidity out of the market, because the problem with capital gains tax is being taxed over 28% it's about 28% is that you actually lower the contribution to the Treasury because there will be fewer capital gains. There will be so many fewer capital gains that you actually lose money. The Tax Foundation, taxfoundation.org, I'd refer people to, has done lots of studies on this, and it's very clear. Here that high capital gains rates actually reduce the amount of money that comes to the government. So this is purely political. This has nothing to do with let's generate more revenue, one of the challenges so you have to score this, right? So that means that you're scoring what's the revenue that's going to be produced? You have two types of scoring. One is called static scoring. The other is called dynamic scoring. Static scoring means that we're going to look at the capital gains we already have, and we're just going to, if we double the rate, we're going to double the revenue. So that's assuming that we're going to have the same number and amounts of capital gains as we add at the lower rates, right? Dynamic scoring means that we're going to take into account how people behave motivationally when you double the tax rate. Yeah. Well, let me give you an example. So I'm a business owner. My wealth is in my business primarily. Do you think, really, I'm going to sell that business and take the capital gains immediately and be done with it? But if I have a high capital gains rate, I'm going to sell this over 20 years. So I'm actually going to defer my capital gains as long as I can, because I don't want to pay those high capital gains rates. So that means less money to the government. That's what it means. So it actually reduces on a dynamic scoring if you look at truly how people behave and have behaved in the past. So this isn't a new thing, right? We've had high capital gains rates before. It's not like we don't know. It's not like we haven't seen this before. It's that, for whatever reason, politically, they've decided that, wait a minute, the rich are out of favor. We need to tax the rich more. That's a very popular line, and therefore this is a way to do that, even though it by all calculations that are dynamic, it would actually reduce the amount of funds that come to the Treasury.

Keith Weinhold 22:00

That does make sense about the double taxation. Case in point, with an apartment building, if you increase its noi, you have more income than pay tax that if you increase the noi, therefore you've increased the value of the building. Consequently, the capital gains tax that you might have to pay down the road Tom, maybe current capital gains tax are higher than I thought, is the 28% capital gains tax. Number You mentioned, current or proposed. What is that?

Tom Wheelwright 22:24

Well, right now we have a 24% capital gains tax, okay, we have 20% pure capital gains tax, plus we have a 3.8% net investment income tax. Doesn't apply right now if you're a real estate professional, but applies to everybody else under the Harris proposal formally adopted Biden's plan under the Harris proposal, then you would get a actually 39.6% rate, plus 5% net investment income tax, regardless of whether you're your real estate Professional. So that is 44.6% that's the 45% the 28% number I threw out is that's the number the Tax Foundation says is the maximum you can raise it to without losing revenue.

Keith Weinhold 23:11

That puts things into perspective, as real estate investors, for a long time, we've appreciated substantial tax shelters. What are they being the 1031, tax deferred exchange, like you mentioned, that's been around for more than 100 years. Does that have any realistic shot of being shot down? Of course, Trump shot down substantial parts of the 1031 outside of strict real estate investing.

Tom Wheelwright 23:32

He did, and he actually set the precedent for eliminating it. So by doing that, because he eliminated it on everything except real property, right? I mean, actually, and even before that, there was a time, and there's still ways you can do it with paper assets. But it's not a 1031 exchange. So 1031 exchange has it evolved. It's gotten it's shrunk. It keeps shrinking. Even three or four years ago, no realistic possibility of eliminating 1031 exchange. The challenge, of course, is it would have an impact on the liquidity of the market. However, big deals never do 1031 exchange. Ever you don't see big multifamily developments sold in 1031s. The only time you see that happen is when they've used the Delaware statutory trust. And then you've got some of the investors who use it. And some of them who don't, you can do that in the Delaware statutory trust, but the regular developers, I haven't seen a 1031 done by a syndicator in years. So could they eliminate? Yeah, they could.

Keith Weinhold 24:33

yeah, that would be concerning. Are there any other presidential hopeful proposals that have to do with taxes that are germane, and our audience should know about?

Tom Wheelwright 24:41

my heavens. So the Democrats want to raise taxes by $5 trillion they want those taxes to all be on investors. And the reason I say that is because typically, people who make less than $400,000 which is their threshold, are not major investors. Most of their money goes to spending. Money. If you're making under $400,000 you can easily spend $400,000 a year. Oh, yeah, okay, that's not that hard, especially in today's world. It's a transfer from high net worth individuals who invest their money in long term projects like real estate, like energy, like business, and it's going to be a transfer to people who spend the money and they're going to spend it, my prediction is that if the Democrats get their way, we enter into a long term period of stagflation, high unemployment and high inflation. Because if you transfer $5 trillion from people who aren't spending it in the first place to be able who do spend it. You've got $5 trillion of new money going into the marketplace. Now it could depress asset values. So that could be good for investors, okay? Because you don't have as much cash available to the I'll call it the investor class, to go into real estate. If that's the case, then you have $5 trillion less, right? I mean, it's not a huge portion of the market, but it's big enough. If you take $5 trillion out of investment capital, then that would put a downward pressure on asset prices, which would include real estate.

Keith Weinhold 25:29

we're talking about potential changes to the tax code. It's always a germane discussion, because taxes are the biggest expense in your life. We're talking with Tom wheelwright. We come back, we're going to talk about the real estate tax laws as they are now, for example, how your rent income is taxed differently than your job income, and also, what are taxes like on sports, gambling. You're listening to get rich Education. I'm your host. Keith Weinhold.

Keith Weinhold 26:45

hey, you can get your mortgage loans at the same place where I get mine, at Ridge lending group NMLS 42056, they provided our listeners with more loans than any provider in the entire nation because they specialize in income properties. They help you build a long term plan for growing your real estate empire with leverage. You can start your pre qualification and chat with President Caeli Ridge personally. Start Now while it's on your mind at Ridgelendinggroup.com that's Ridgelendinggroup.com

Keith Weinhold 27:16

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Blair Singer 28:29

this is Rich Dad, sales advisor, Blair singer. Listen to get rich education with Keith Weinhold. And above all, Don't Quit Your Daydream.

Keith Weinhold 28:48

welcome back to get rich education. We're talking with tax pro Tom wheelwright. He's been talking to us about some of the proposals that presidential candidates have here in a campaign season, and whether these things become true or not. Sometimes it seems like just the fact that they're proposing. They're proposed, or if they get instituted at a small level years down the road, it can blow up into something bigger. So Tom tell us more about some of the proposals that are on the table.

Tom Wheelwright 29:12

So we talked about the democratic proposals, which also include things like a $6,000 tax credit for babies. It also includes an enhanced Child Tax Credit. Also includes some other there's lots of provisions in there, right? So it's a transfer. It's just a transfer of money from one group of people to another group of people. On the Republican side, we haven't talked about that now they want to extend the 2017 act. They've been very clear, that's what they want to do, which is an estimate $4 trillion so the other direction. So basically, you're talking about a $9 trillion swing between the two parties. We've never seen this before, ever in a presidential election. Now, that big of a difference, one major tax increase, one party proposing major. Tax increases, the other proposing major tax decreases in the same election. It's something that I'm glad people are paying attention to, because it's a little overdue in this election cycle. Because really, when you talk about policy, that's probably the biggest policy difference between the two parties.

Keith Weinhold 30:18

Now one thing we've learned over time from talking with you is these presidential wish lists, if you want to call them that. Well, these tax changes are things that require congressional approval, and we have a divided Congress currently. So what do you think the prospects are of really any of these things becoming new law?

Tom Wheelwright 30:36

First of all, remember, most of the 2017 act expires at the end of 2025 so something will have to be done next year. They don't have a choice, either that or is just expires, and then we're back to what we had. We have smaller standard deductions, we have alternative minimum tax again. We get a deduction for state income taxes, right? That comes back the one. We lose our 20% Small Business deduction, the only thing that stays permanent is the corporate income tax rate that was permanent in the original bill. So there is going to be something, you're right, if there is a divided Congress, and I say that if, because if one party sweeps, then, especially on the Democratic side, the Republicans don't seem to be as cohesive as the Democrats are on these things. And if the Democrats sweep, I would say, remember, we don't have Kyrsten Sinema, we don't have Joe Manchin from happening. And so would the Democrats sweep all these through, not all of them, but you're going to see a major tax increase for sure, on the Republican side, would you see the 2017 act extended? You'll probably see it, but you're right that otherwise, if it's a divided Congress, we're going to have something in between. We thought we would get a divided Congress in 2020 though, remember and we didn't. So I would not count on a divided Congress

Keith Weinhold 31:59

erstwhile 2017 Trump tax cuts in JOBS Act brought the highest marginal income tax bracket from 39.6% under Obama down to 37% as I remember it. Some thought Biden would take it back up to 39.6 but he hasn't and it's just stated 37 All right, so if Republicans stayed in power, presumably that 37% would go ahead and carry on. That's what we think about as our w2 income. Tom, why don't we talk about the taxes that actually exist today? I think a lot of real estate investors just don't understand the difference between how your w2 job income is taxed versus your taxes on real estate rent. Can you talk to us about that?

Tom Wheelwright 32:42

The reason it's confusing is because they're both considered ordinary income, right? The difference is, is that one is business income and one is non business income. Your wages are non business income. You don't get deductions against non business income, but you do get deductions against business income. So your rental income is considered business income for purposes of the Internal Revenue Code. What that means is you get deductions for taxes. You get deductions for interest, you get deductions for maintenance, you get deductions for depreciation. That's why, when you have your income from your rentals. Typically taxed much lower than your income from your salary, because you get no deductions against your salary like you do against the rentals.

Keith Weinhold 33:30

Maybe it would help to introduce an example here. I don't know if this will complicate things too much or not. If a real estate investor has, say, a single family rental property with $2,000 of rent, income, $1,000 mortgage, $800 in operating expenses. How is that tax that leaves them with $200 of cash flow?

Tom Wheelwright 33:50

You have $200 of cash flow, but then you probably have depreciation on top of that, which is a non cash deduction. And so let's say your depreciation is $500 that means you actually have a $300 loss that, in many cases, you can use to offset income from your w2 so you actually have a negative tax rate. In other words, you're making money from taxes. So actually, is that an increase to your cash flow? So it's a way to think of it is, I have $200 of cash flow from my tenant, if I have a $300 loss for tax purposes, let's say I'm in a 33% tax bracket. I have $100 of income from the government. So that means my cash flow is really after tax. Cash flow is $300 not $200 whereas if you have the same $200 of income from your wages. Let's say you have just the net, right? Let's start with the net. You have $200 well, you're going to be taxed. And let's say that again, your 33% tax rate, that means you're after tax, right, is going to be roughly $125,000 okay, under $30 so $130 we're. $300 so it's like twice as much. In fact, all of that difference is because of the tax law.

Keith Weinhold 35:06

Gosh, that was a great breakdown. I'm really glad that I introduced that example, $2,000 in rent, minus $1,000 for the mortgage, at $800 in operating expenses, again, leaving you with $200 in cash flow with that example. There's probably more going on here with taxes. Because, of course, with that $1,000 mortgage amount, some is going to be principal, some is going to be interest. In part of that interest can be tax deductible.

Tom Wheelwright 35:31

I'm assuming it's all interest, because if it were not, we'd have a higher taxable income. Remember, your principal payment is not deductible. So in your example, I was assuming that the $1,000 mortgage payment was all interest. If it was only $800 then you'd have $400 of income before depreciation. You don't have $100 loss, because, remember, your principal's not deductible, so therefore you have to add that back into your taxable income.

Keith Weinhold 35:58

Will you talk to us about how to apply depreciation to this income versus expenses. Example, is there anything else you can speak to when it comes to that $800 of operating expenses in this example, and those expenses include things like property insurance, property tax itself, maintenance repairs and utilities.

Tom Wheelwright 36:19

Right but also, for example, you might run your rental real estate business out of a home office in your home so you could have a home office deduction. You might have your use your car for the rental purposes, and then you get a deduction for your car. So there are additional expenses that aren't even in that $800 that you could pick up that would not otherwise you'd never get a deduction, and you're really not spending any more money. You're just using it for business, and therefore getting a business deduction. So it's really all about what do I get to deduct? Remember that if you own a home for yourself, you don't get to really deduct the taxes. You have a limit on how much you can deduct. So taxes are limited in deduction. Mortgage Interest may or may not be limited. Remember also that if you have a mortgage, you're limited to how much a $750,000 mortgage being deductible, whereas if you it's a rental property, it could be a seven and a half million dollar and mortgage, and you still get the deduction, so you're not limited like you are. On top of that, again, it's a business, so let's say that you put solar panels on your personal home, you'd get a 30% tax credit, but you'd get no depreciation deduction. If you put solar panels on your rental house, you get the same 30% tax credit, but now you also get a depreciation deduction of probably another 30 $40,000 in the first year. So there's always more deductions in a business setting than a personal setting.

Keith Weinhold 37:56

Well, real estate has been around a really long time. Often laugh when people talk about non conventional investments and put real estate investing in their real estate's about the most conventional investment that we can possibly think of. It's been around a long time. We think about a newer thing that people do with their money, but I sure don't call it investing. That's sports gambling, and it's something that you and I haven't talked about before. Here Tom in 2018 the Supreme Court opened the way for states to legalize sports gambling, and at last check, 38 states, plus DC and Puerto Rico have legalized at least some form of sports gambling. So now it's a more germane conversation for you and I to have than it was a few years ago. Can you tell us about sports gambling, taxes and how it's treated.

Tom Wheelwright 38:41

So remember, all income is taxable. So that includes gambling winnings. They are taxable. In fact, you'll get a 1099 just like you would if you rendered services, you'd get a 1099 or you have interest income, you get 1099 you get 1099 from gambling. What you actually have to show is that you actually have gambling losses. So you have to track those gambling losses to show the IRS that you got gambling losses. But your gambling losses can never be more than your gambling winnings. You never get to generate a tax loss on gambling. What that means is, is that if you win $10,000 during the year, and you can prove that you lost $8,000 during the year, you're going to be taxed on $2,000 but if you can't prove the 8000 you're going to be taxed on 10,000

Keith Weinhold 39:33

so you the gambler, have the burden of tracking this, and I guess tracking your losses. I'm not a gambler. How would one track their losses?

Tom Wheelwright 39:42

I would keep detail ledger. Personally, I probably have a separate bank account just for gambling. Gosh, I'm not a gambler either, so that's what I would do. I would have a bank account just for gambling, by the way. It's also a good way to budget your gambling so they, you know, get in trouble, right? So just set up a separate bank account. Don't put whatever money you say, I'm comfortable with this money, I'm going to gamble with this money put in that bank account, and then you have a ledger that shows the money that went in and the money you lost, the money you won, and don't do anything but gambling in that bank account.

Keith Weinhold 40:15

Hey, that separate account's a great way to hide it from your spouse, not that I'm suggesting. Not bad.

Tom Wheelwright 40:22

Interesting. You went there.

Keith Weinhold 40:23

I'm not a gambler at all. Can't even believe I was thinking that far ahead. What are the gambling tax rates like?

Tom Wheelwright 40:31

They're ordinary income tax rate. So gambling winnings are just ordinary income. They're the same as your wages. They don't have social security taxes their income, just like any other kind of income, nothing special. And this all applies to whether it's sports gambling or general gambling, like lotteries and sweepstakes? Just remember, all incomes taxable unless the government says it isn't all income, okay? And then there's some types of income that are taxed at special rates, like capital gains, but gambling has no special rates. By the way, gold also has special rate for when you sell gold, it has its own tax rate. Gambling has no special tax rate, so it's just your ordinary income rates.

Keith Weinhold 41:11

To me, it seems like it's hard to break even with gambling over time, and then when you take the tax adjusted earnings that you get from it, you know, over the long term. I just don't think Harris and Bally's Casino is really incentivized to inform gamblers on how punitive this can be with ordinary income tax rates applied to gambling winnings.

Tom Wheelwright 41:30

No, but they will send you your 10909g I guarantee that, that's for sure.

Keith Weinhold 41:34

Well, Tom has helped business owners and real estate investors permanently reduce their taxes. He does it like virtually no one else in the world does by keeping it simple, by helping you find deductions that other CPAs can't do. You can learn more about how Tom and his team can actually help you. You can get a free consultation. You can do that at getricheducation.com/tax. And Tom tell us more about the importance of a business owner or a real estate investor or anybody else really being connected with the right kind of tax professional that can permanently reduce your taxes.

Tom Wheelwright 42:12

So remember that if you want to change your tax, you have to change your facts. It's that simple. What you have to do is you need to know what facts you need to change. That's where a good tax advisor comes in. Is what facts do you need to change in order to change your tax now good news is, wrote tax through wealth. So you got an idea of what that is, but the tax law is very detailed. You must dot your i's cross your t's, so to speak, so that you make sure that you meet all of the rules, such as documentation, for example, for your business expenses. When you do that, you're going to get a better tax result, especially if your tax advisor is also preparing your tax return. Because really, your tax return is just part just how you implement your tax strategy, right? That's how you do it. So we launched, just recently, a franchise of tax advisors, and now we actually have much, really good control, quality control with our tax advisors, and they use our software system. It's very important that you have somebody, if not us, find somebody who you know you can actually give tax free wealth too, and say what cares make sure that we're doing it this way. But if the easy button is really the getricheducation.com/tax.

Keith Weinhold 43:27

Tom Wheelwright, It's been valuable as always. Thanks so much for coming back onto the show.

Tom Wheelwright 43:33

Thanks, Keith.

Keith Weinhold 43:40

Yeah, key insights from Tom as always, taxes are complicated. Tom's Network helps sort it out for you. We've already covered a lot of ground on this week's episode with raw land values as built, proposed tax plans and how to reduce your tax burden within the existing tax system. Tom and I talked, and he will be back yet again with us later this year for more tax wizardry. Now, just recently here, Kamala Harris proposed a smaller capital gains tax hike than Biden. She's starting to put sort of her own policy spin on things, breaking with the President on the size of a proposed increase on the capital gains tax rate that is a 28% top tax rate when investments are sold for those that make a million dollars plus. So that's more than the current 23.8% top rate, but less than the 39.6% rate that Biden had supported all income is taxable. Therefore it is axiomatic that the fastest way to increase your ROI is to work with a tax advisor that can find you all of the biggest deductions right away. You can read Tom's book Tax Free Wealth, get a good system of documentation going and get connected with Tom's team. At the end of an episode at times, I like to leave you with the most actionable resource on the topic that we covered. You can schedule a free call to see how Tom's team can help you out. At getricheducation.com/tax. That's getricheducation.com/tax. Until next week. I'm your host. Keith Weinhold, Don't Quit Your Daydream.

45:33

Keith Weinhold 46:01

The preceding program was brought to you by your home for wealth, building, getricheducation.com.

Direct download: GREepisode519_.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 4:00am EST

Mon, 9 September 2024

A prominent Florida Builder and #1 Wall Street Journal Best-Selling Author joins us to discuss the benefits of build-to-rent properties, including affordable housing and attractive mortgage rates.

He has already done all the work for investors, offering new build income properties that are sometimes rented.

We discuss the importance of median value and affordability index in choosing profitable areas for long-term real estate investments.

Learn about new build income properties with rate buydowns as low as 3.75%.

Important market dynamics and investor strategies, including the trade-offs between cash flow and equity growth.

Show Notes:

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517: The Future of Homebuilding with George Gilder

Complete episode transcript:

Automatically Transcribed With Otter.ai

Keith Weinhold 00:01

Welcome to GRE. I'm your host. Keith Weinhold, a great way to forecast the future of the real estate market is to look at the level of new building. I've got a surprise to reveal there then a focus on one of the hottest in migration states. That's popular because it promises cash flow for real estate investors today on Get Rich Education.

00:24

Since 2014 the powerful Get Rich Education podcast has created more passive income for people than nearly any other show in the world. This show teaches you how to earn strong returns from passive real estate investing in the best markets without losing your time being a flipper or landlord. Show Host Keith Weinhold writes for both Forbes and Rich Dad advisors and delivers a new show every week since 2014 there's been millions of listener downloads in 188 world nations. He has a list show guest top selling personal finance author Robert Kiyosaki. Get Rich Education can be heard on every podcast platform, plus it has its own dedicated Apple and Android listener phone apps build wealth on the go with the Get Rich Education podcast. Sign up now for the Get Rich Education podcast, or visit getricheducation.com

Corey Coates 01:09

You're listening to the show that has created more financial freedom than nearly any show in the world. This is Get Rich Education.

Keith Weinhold 01:25

Welcome to GRE from Plains Georgia to White Plains New York and across 188 nations worldwide, you are listening to Get Rich Education. I'm your host. Keith Weinhold, we are an educational platform. And if you haven't yet, I really suggest that you spend 100 hours learning how to invest in real estate. The average person works 2000 hours a year for 40 years. That's 80,000 hours of working for money. I implore you to spend 100 hours learning how to keep it and grow it and leverage it and create income and tax advantages from it. 80,000 hours of lifetime work, 100 hours learning real estate investing. Now, when someone like a presidential candidate produces, still vague talk about building 3 million starter homes in four years. That actually appears just about impossible. Within the existing structure. We would need 2 million housing starts per year from 2025 to 2028, in order to overcome our existing shortfall. And we haven't exceeded 1.8 million in any year in the moderate era, and that's even when demand was extraordinary and interest rates were low. Just you know, look at the reality of what home builders need to actually do, and this is even if they don't have any excessive not in my backyard. Pushback, builders have to procure land, meaning they need to lay out cash far before building, and then they need to jump through zoning and building hoops in counties and cities, in towns, in communities, and sometimes those hoops can reach preposterous levels with substantial delays. Builders need to secure financing, and for most, interest rates are still in the 9% plus range. And then builders need to acquire a whole local network of contractors and subcontractors, and then they need to keep those contractors and subcontractors busy, or else they're gonna lose those workers. So builders have to work to maintain their teams once they found them. And if that's not enough, this is all amidst a historically bad skilled labor shortage, meaning those workers can be enticed to go work for somebody else. As you know, skilled worker demand far exceeds skilled worker supply. So for builders, it takes years of planning and development. In a lot of cases, they sit on land for many years before the market conditions are right for the actual build. Well, look, at least there is finally acknowledgement among our highest elected officials that we do need to address the core problem, but our elected officials proposals aren't really so good, and our country's housing problem is largely a regulatory issue. Later today, we'll talk to a builder that's already done all of this for you, so it's not preconstruction that has new build income properties complete, available sometimes even rented already, and they help you buy down your mortgage rate to a level that's really low. You'll soon learn about it. But first, let's talk more about adding new housing supply in the larger apartment segment. It's something that can help you see the future here, but it isn't getting enough tension outside of multifamily industry circles, and that is the fact that apartment starts are plummeting to 11 year lows. And this is a real surprise to some people, multifamily completions are outpacing starts by the widest margin since 1975 and I mention this because, you know, you probably keep hearing and reading about how apartment construction is at all time highs, but really, that is a story from two years ago. It takes about two years to go from an apartment construction start to a completion. Well, today we're seeing that huge surge of apartment starts two years ago morph into completions. That's the piece to be aware of here. And to give you some idea about the new apartment building, slow down through July, we have completed 314,000 multifamily units, and we started just 193,000 units. That's all according to census stats that year to date. Start total is the nation's lowest since 2013 when we were just building our way out of the global financial crisis. Also a larger share of apartment supply. In this next cycle, it's likely to be affordable housing, because that's where the tax incentives are in the last wave of apartment construction a few years ago, it was more higher end stuff, and the result is today, apartments are oversupplied in a lot of markets, leading to falling apartment rents, or just somewhat stable and frozen apartment rents in heavily overbuilt places like Austin, Texas and a lot of others. But this slowdown in New Starts of larger apartments is why some have bullishness on the multifamily outlook for 2026 and beyond supply is the biggest headwind for apartment investors today. While it is an enormous tailwind for renters, it's good for them, but those dynamics appear likely to shift again. It took an almost perfect storm of variables to push apartment construction to 50 year highs, and it's difficult to see a scenario where construction could re-accelerate back to those peaks. Today's apartment completion levels could mark a high. It's generational. You may never see it again. So to summarize, in the world of large apartments, supply is still up, even outpacing demand in a lot of markets. It all came from a big building wave that began when interest rates were low two years ago. They're mostly upper end places. Apartment syndicators also got hit with higher rates that reset on them, and you've seen the value of some apartment buildings fall 30%. It is bad. But long term, I expect that apartments are going to be fine. New lease ups are absorbing what's out there. The demographics show that renters will continue occupying apartments. Interest rates have already fallen and they're expected to keep falling, and you don't have very many new apartment starts, it's that last piece that a lot of people aren't aware of. So that's the forecast over the next few years for five plus unit apartments. When it comes to the market dynamics for one to four unit properties. I'm going to discuss this with one of the voices of GRE marketplace today. They are a build to rent provider building new construction, single family homes, duplexes and fourplexes for tenants that they sell to investors. Hey, I'd like to welcome in a home builder and property provider serving Florida, basically statewide, known as North America's leading build to rent property developer, and he believes in what he builds and offers others, because he's been a real estate investor himself for more than two decades. Hey, Jim, welcome back onto the show.

Jim Sheils 09:45

Keith, good to be here. Thanks for having me.

Keith Weinhold 09:47

Jim, we have a lot of exciting things to talk about. What you're doing in Florida. You've really helped out a lot of our investors and followers so far. You have some really interesting things to tell us about. Rate buydowns and just how low those rate buydowns are on some new build properties. And I sure want to get to that. But first, why don't we just pull back big picture, and from the 30,000 foot national view, before we talk about Florida, what are some of the important dynamics you see in the real estate market here in late 2024

Jim Sheils 10:16

Yeah, it's been interesting. The media is always late to the party, as you know, Keith, I've seen some interesting stats. You know, affordability nationwide has gone from 480,000 about eight months ago, and now it's down to about 405, so we've already seen the affordability index come down nationwide, and it's hit really well here in Florida. One of the reasons why is there's definitely been some price adjustments on higher priced property in Maine markets, Miami, Orlando, Tampa, areas that we don't build because the numbers didn't work. So that's been really good to see that affordability also, rates are just starting to drop. But here's an interesting thing. A year ago, Keith, the average mortgage payment for the average person buying a home, was 57% of their total income. Now that has dropped to about 44% of their total income. So I'm always looking at affordability and overall median pricing, and that's been a really, really good thing for us. As I had said, second tier markets where you can get affordability, but also great amenities, great lifestyle is where we've always focused on building, and it seems like that is really continuing to have a solid pulse. I love visiting some of those bigger markets, you know, taking my kids to Disney, but I'm glad we stayed out of there, because it seemed a little more temperamental, and we're glad we're in the more second tier markets.

Keith Weinhold 11:39

You cited an affordability index there earlier. Now, affordability still, historically, is not that good, but it's not as bad as it used to be. Tell us more about that index.

Jim Sheils 11:49

Yeah, I always have looked at, you know, the affordability index. Let's just use an example, Orange County, California. I think the median value of a home there is $1.1 million. In Jacksonville it's 305, and so you get a score for based on what is the average family income per price of the home. And it's kind of like your report card. And there's certain areas that have an A, and there's certain areas that have an F. You know, we have lots of investors come to us with you guys too, from New York or Seattle or Orange County. And this is something I look at, what is the affordability index, and just know how they figure out the score on your affordability index. What's the average price of the home in that area, and what is the average family income for that area? And the correlation of those two numbers shows whether you have a good score or bad score.

Keith Weinhold 12:39

And now that we've looked at the national picture somewhat, you mentioned some of the major metro markets in Florida, some of which you specifically stay out of, and that's simply because the numbers don't work for long term rentals. They don't provide cash flow. Tell us more, just in general, about some of the areas that you've chosen and why is there profitable for long term real estate investors?

Jim Sheils 13:03

Yeah, this median value, this affordability index, is so key when we're able to get into home still, you know, Jacksonville is barely over 300,000 as the media now, we're able to cash flow right off the bat. So like Jacksonville is still as the population growth, the economic growth is occurring. It's desirable coastal community, and supply and demand is in our favor. We don't have enough housing, so that's where we focus all of those factors, not only here, but on a smaller scale, in Palm Coast, in Ocala, where we've done a ton with the GRE community. And then southwest Florida. We don't go to Southeast Florida, too expensive, too overbuilt, too high on insurance, but that Greater Fort Myers area, which did experience the highest growth anywhere in the country during the pandemic, which was interesting to watch, we're still seeing a lot of good fundamentals down there. And again, at that affordable range, it makes a big difference when you're buying at a medium priced home is, let's say 320,000 opposed to 580,000 makes a huge difference to whether it will cash flow off the bat or have a negative cash flow. And as you know, Keith, even though we're doing new construction high growth areas, we want to see app cash flow right away.

Keith Weinhold 14:13

Now, you are a builder, you are adding much needed inventory to the national housing supply, where we've had a shortage of millions of units per years, depending on what source you cite in quote there, a lot of the estimates as to the housing shortage really are all over the place. But many sources state that Florida inventory levels just statewide. Here they are back about to pre pandemic levels. So they have recovered. They are back to about 2019 levels. And I think one important thing for people to remember is, well, 2019 was a pretty good, balanced housing market.

Jim Sheils 14:50

It was a normal market. We liked 2019 you know, that was a good market. There was growth, but it was sustainable, more predictable, steady. So I'm happy to be back in 2019. You know, 2020 21 levels there were, there was less than a month's worth of inventory on the MLS that it was dire. Yeah, it was just such a skewed thing. And you've studied this for a long time. So everyone if you say, Oh well, it went from this to this. I love how you talk about 2019 because by all statistics that was a very normal market here in Florida. So we're happy to get back to that, because you have to have a certain amount of inventory level to balance the playing field. We want to see growth, but I'm more of a long term player, as you know, we don't need to see huge spikes, because that can get a little volatile.

Keith Weinhold 15:36

Now, as a builder, talk to us about builder sentiment since, like we talked about before, we are in a falling interest rate environment, mortgage rates are already down about one and a half percent from the recent highs, and the Fed hasn't even begun lowering rates yet. So talk to us more about what those lower rates do to build their sentiment. And we're not just talking about rates for buyers here, which matter, but it's the rate that builders like you that have to pay the typically factory in here too.

Jim Sheils 16:06

Yeah, it's an interesting market right now, Keith, and here's something I want to give great encouragement from as you know, we do build some for the institutions and the larger groups. The little guy, the small investor, has the guerrilla warfare advantage over them right now, because, as you know, we right now have announced financing. We're able to have this builder forward commitment where we're buying large tranches of money for residential mortgages. That means, you know, individuals like we work with all the time, Keith, that buy a few properties, we can get them this incredible financing right now, at 3.75 we're beating the market. You know, you go into a B of A and try to get a duplex finance, you're probably looking at six and three quarters. And we're able to do that because it's residential real estate. Some of our bigger guys, they would buy all of our inventory. But we can't get a institution qualified for these individual investor loans for residential real estate. They have to go to the commercial world. And as you know right now, Keith, the commercial world is screwy. People aren't lending. The rates are really high, and even these big guys have to sharpen their pencils and do their numbers and they go, Gosh, it's not panning out until rates drop. So that means these bigger groups are on the sidelines. And we all hear the complaints, all the big guys are buying all the properties they own 40% well, they're on the sidelines, and our little troopers and investors are building their portfolios in ways they cannot so it's exciting to see now for us too. What's lucky and unlucky is a lot of good builders out there that we're friends with. They can't get financing. The banks have gotten so stringent. So they might even have a good balance sheet and a good track record, but the banks are getting really stringent where Chris and I are. As you know, we were partially acquired by Sumitomo forestry about a year and a half ago. They're a 331 year old company, and when we decided to team up with them, they said, We love Florida and we love build to rent, go, and so now we have zero bank debt, and they've given us a green light to build out all of our inventory. We have five, over 5000 lots in Florida, and we don't have the bank slowdowns. So to find a good builder, you have to make sure they have financing in place, because they're going to be a great builder out there that just can't get the funding to do the job for you. So that's another thing you want to look for.

Keith Weinhold 18:16

Right. And last time I checked, you've got more than 925 current independent income property investors, many of those whom are GRE listeners. Well, we're going to talk more about just how low those rates are. Who participates in the buy down? I already know that most of it's the builder, and just part of it is you, the investor. You're listening to get residuation. We're talking about Florida, build to rent property more when we come back, I'm your host. Keith Weinhold Hey, you can get your mortgage loans at the same place where I get mine, at Ridge lending group NMLS 42056, they provided our listeners with more loans than any provider in the entire nation because they specialize in income properties. They help you build a long term plan for growing your real estate empire with leverage. You can start your pre qualification and chat with President Caeli Ridge personally. Start Now while it's on your mind at ridgelendinggroup.com That's ridgelendinggroup.com Your bank is getting rich off of you. The national average bank account pays less than 1% on your savings. If your money isn't making 4% you're losing your hard earned cash to inflation. Let the liquidity fund help you put your money to work with minimum risk, your cash generates up to an 8% return with compound interest, year in and year out, instead of earning less than 1% sitting in your bank account, the minimum investment is just 25k you keep getting paid until you decide you want your money back. Their decade plus track record proves they've always paid their. Investors 100% in full and on time. And I would know, because I'm an investor too, earn 8% hundreds of others are text FAMILY to 66866, learn more about Freedom Family investments Liquidity Fund on your journey to financial freedom through passive income. Text, FAMILY to 66866.

Garrett Sutton 20:28

This is Rich Dad advisor, Garret Sutton, to grow your wealth. Listen to the always valuable. Get Rich Education.

Keith Weinhold 20:45

Welcome back to Get Rich Education we're talking about half of progress real estate investing in high growth Florida, with a renowned build to rent provider there. And I think a lot of this really comes down to trust with the fluctuating interest rate environment that we've had, some people don't trust certain builders or that investor to go ahead and put down a deposit on a vacant lot and wait 12 months or more for it to be built. But we're not talking about pre construction here.

Jim Sheils 21:16

No, no. Since we steamed up with Sumitomo, you know a lot of good builders again, they can't even start the project until they have a a buyer with a deposit down. That's the requirement for the bank to give them the money to start building. We don't have bank requirements, so we're building on our own dime, and so we are having properties completed before you even have to make an offer on them. So these are finished properties, sometimes a tenant already in place. I know just this month, there's been a few GRE people very happily stepping into pre rented homes. So you don't have to wait that period. If you're ready to move your money or have a 1031 exchange, we can fulfill those no problem, and close within 30 days Our in house financing, Keith, which I know we're about to go over, I want to make sure people know this is for not only our single families, but our duplexes and our quads as well.

Keith Weinhold 22:02

Tell us more about that in house financing that's something of great interest to people, and especially with these mortgage rate buyouts.

Jim Sheils 22:09

Yeah, everyone says, Oh, I wish I had locked into a mortgage before June of 2022 right? I mean, for every time we heard that, Keith, well, now you can and what we're able to do since we have the balance sheet we have now, with teaming up with this bigger company, banks will allow us to do what's called a builder forward commitment and buy large tranches of money. We're in the money buying business, I guess, now, and we have to commit to large amounts of money, but by doing that, we're able to pay fees upfront to buy down the mortgages. So right now, our most popular rate is 3.75. You as the buyer, and these are called discount points, which I've heard Keith talk about. You're bringing in a little under two discount points to get the 3.75 rate. And you say, Okay, well, Jim, we're bringing in a little less than two points. What are you bringing in? We're not really supposed to talk about that, but here's what I can tell you, do this test, go to one of your mortgage friends, or your B of A or Wells Fargo, and ask it what it will take for you to pay to buy down a rate for 3.75. Now, first of all, they will not allow you to do that much. We are on a more high volume schedule that will allow us to do that, but let's say, if they would, here's what the feedback we've got. If you were to try to do this on your own, Keith, you or I just walking into our bank, you would have to pay anywhere from 12 to 15 points to make this happen. Gosh, and that was the advantage of working as a collective group like we do together, you and I in our investor community, because now that we're able to do volume, it benefits us

Keith Weinhold 23:39

all. No one really knows where interest rates are going to go. I think it's pretty foolish to try to predict them, but very few people think they're ever going to drop to the levels that we saw during the depths of the pandemic, 3.75% if you get locked in there, it's pretty unlikely that the future market is going to meet that down the road at all and tell us more about that product type, the single family homes, duplexes and fourplexes that this is available on. And of course, they're all new build.

Jim Sheils 24:09

Yeah, we do a combination of new build on all of these. We found, Keith, a lot of build to rent. Companies really only focused on the single family home, but we found, you know, to increase rental yield and overall returns. There was really a lack in the market for duplexes in residential areas and quads, again, and those are close to commercial deals, without the commercial financing, they allow more affordable rent in more residential areas that people can afford and want to be in. And we found through the pandemic, these had a greater calling to them than, let's say, a large apartment complex. You know, people want to be a little more spread out, have their own yard, like in a duplex, and they get that there, but they get it at a fraction of the price that a complete single family home would be at. So we found, as you know, most of our investors, our average client, buys three to eight properties with us, and no surprise, they. Buy a mixture of single family duplex and quads. I know we agree on this. Keith, the single family home has had the best history of all of great equity appreciation, and the duplex might lag behind that a little bit, but it's got a better cash flow. So I will always do little trade offs and combo my own portfolio to make up for two of those. And that's what our counselors usually coach our people. I know yours do as well.

Keith Weinhold 25:23

Yeah, the economies of scale for the real estate investor really can be there long term with duplexes and fourplexes, and you're really helping fill a need. Some months ago, I talked about the mmm multi families, missing middle, about how so few duplexes, triplexes and fourplexes are being built today, as compared to when you had about three times as much construction in those property types that you did in the 1980s a lot of that's really gone away. You're really bringing it back. We talk about some of the areas where these are built. You know, Jim years ago? Well, really about 10 years ago, when I began this show, I was often talking about how I want to be invested in Metro statistical areas that have a population of at least 500,000 to 1 million people, in order to get a diversity of economic situations there, because you do need rent paying tenants. But so much has changed since then, starting four to five years ago, with the work from home movement, I'm more open to more outlying areas than I had been previously. So tell us about some of these areas that you choose to build in. In Florida.

Jim Sheils 26:29

yeah, you know our hub market where we started doing rehabs many, many, many years ago was Jacksonville, Florida. Yeah, and we still are headquartered here, but Jacksonville, again, is the most affordable coastal city, I believe, still on the East Coast, which brings great fundamentals. It hits both of your things, Keith, where it is larger, but it has more of a sprawl and that larger population and the fundamentals look really well again, that overall median price is still very low. And we branch down to Palm Coast, which is a little more of a higher end area, but a bedroom community, to Jacksonville, the silent soldier, the one that really surprised us the most. I think you remember, this was Ocala. In fact, when Christopher said, Do you want to go start building Ocala, and this is about a decade ago, I said, Wow, Ocala, isn't there only, like, some horses out there? Yeah, now he's a horse guy. So he laughed, and he said, Oh, sure enough, I put my foot in my mouth. But Ocala, the amount of growth that we've seen out there has been incredible. And Ocala is really well placed because it's just below Gainesville, where the, you know, there's the medical centers, the university, and it's just north of the villages, which is the second largest retirement community and growing. Not only that, it has its own economic infrastructure, but it's really well placed in the difference of a price of a home for a starter family in Ocala compared to like Northern Tampa. There is no comparison. You're talking half. So we like that. And also with rents, it's got a great lifestyle. And then southwest Florida again, Southwest Florida, Keith, we're very lucky that we took some risk there. A lot of builders would like to be building down there, but as you remember, we took some big risks in 2020 we talked to some of our friends and said, this can be really good or really bad for real estate. We went with the really good and we loaded up on, well, a lot, over $20 million worth of land at the pre jump prices. Now we're into land right down there so we can get them built right for you guys still make a margin for ourselves that other people that they're trying to get land today, they just can't do and Southwest Florida has been a really good market for us. Had that hurricane there a few years ago, and all of our new construction properties did well. In fact, of almost 300 properties that were under construction, we had four that needed insurance claims, and those four, Keith, well, we had just put up the freestanding walls. We hadn't been able to tie the roof on before the winds and the winds knocked the walls over, and that's it. But there was no flooding, and that's why you get an insurance break. And all the markets that we're in, we always hear, Oh, you can't get insurance in Florida. And I kind of giggle and say, on which properties? Because there is a very different treatment for a new construction property built 2004 or newer, compared to a property built 1957 on lower ground.

Keith Weinhold 29:02

Yeah this is such an important thing to bring up. Property insurance premiums have been hiked substantially on Florida, existing, older build properties, not the post 2004 ones like Jim is talking about here and yeah, for those that don't know, Ocala, there in Central Florida is known as an equestrian area for horses and your business partner, Chris, that's his big hobby. So yeah, when you first went there, you were with Chris. You were like, are you just trying to get there because you want to be around horses more and what? But now there's actually a good fundamental reason for this, where it makes sense to build there. Well, Jim, why don't you talk about how you've specifically helped one of our listeners, or the typical buyer there in how that process looks, including an approximate timeline to get them from the time where they submit an offer all the way through to closing.

Jim Sheils 29:52

Yeah. Well, you know, our team and your team work together. We want to make sure we set people's goals and expectations. Up front. What are you looking for? What are you trying to get into? If someone says to me, Look, I'm looking to get into a great starter home with the lowest basis and highest cash flow, I'm gonna say, Okay, let's look at Ocala. They say, Look, we're looking more long term. I'm more of an equity growth player. Yeah, I want cash flow. I'm gonna say, Okay, let's look at Palm Coast, or southwest Florida. Together with our teams and our property counselors, we try to assess what are your needs and where are you wanting to go. Now, all of our vehicles will get through there, but some a little better than others, depending on the plan you want to put together. And so once we do do that, what we like to do is go through properties that seem to match what they're most wanting. We'll go through the performance. We'll look up the site maps, we'll go through the different fundamentals of that direct area, and then, if it seems to make sense, first thing we got to do is get you pre qualified with our in house lender. All is that a go? Well, then we can make an offer, get it in. We have a whole onboarding process. You know that we've done hundreds and hundreds and hundreds of time, and now we're over. I know I laugh because we talked recently and you said, I think you're at a 925. Investors, we're over 1000 now, so we're continuing to grow. But again, we've tried to make it fluid, where our people are part of the process, but never alone. We answer the questions on the financing help get you the directionals on the insurance now, you can use whatever insurance company you want. 99% of them use the company that we recommend. We have no financial affiliation with them. But everyone asked years ago when Chris and I started this, well, who do you use for insurance? Who do you use? So we just gave them who we used, and this person usually undercuts and better coverage than most. So all those pieces Keith with going through that and again, this is about a 30 day process of getting qualified, once you pick the property, submitting the contract with your 10% deposit, doing your onboarding for Property Management and Insurance pieces. And then, obviously you don't have to come here to see us for closing. We do all of our traveling closings for you. And most important thing I like to set up with PM is, where do you want the money wired?

Keith Weinhold 31:59

That's a great question. Well, yeah, I mean, this is a great answer for so many of our listeners, those super attractive rate buy downs. And then the big thing is, is, in many cases, you're not waiting and waiting and waiting months for the build to take place. Well, Jim, before I tell our listeners how they can connect with you over there, do you have any last thoughts overall with anything that we did touch on or did not.

Jim Sheils 32:22

I want to encourage people, if they're not looking to get in the next to real estate in the next two to three years, not a big deal. But if you're looking to get in sometime over the next year, then I would really look at what's happening, things you talk about with the rates and the interest, because I do believe that institutional money within the next six months, it'll be interesting when we reconnect, Keith, that are going to start coming in and buying up more residential real estate. However, their hands are tied right now. They cannot get the financing that the smaller guy can. So whether it's with us or someone else, take advantage. Take advantage. David and Goliath, this is a great opportunity where the big guys cannot keep up with you, because they can't get the financing and insurance rates that you can so take advantage.

Keith Weinhold 33:03

Well, I specifically wanted to have you on today because it is an opportunistic time. They serve Florida with new builds. Learn more about their properties and even get some under contract. If you so wish, you can do so by contacting your GRE investment coach. If you don't have one yet, you can do so at GREmarketplace.com it is free or at GREmarketplace.com/florida. Jim, it's been great having you back on the show.

Jim Sheils 33:32

Thanks having me. Keith, good seeing you.

Keith Weinhold 33:39

Yeah, an excellent update on Florida build to rent properties. A lot of our listeners are asking about these new build properties with 3.75% mortgage interest rates, and you are not the majority participant in the rate buy down either. Next week, who I consider the foremost tax authority in the entire world will be back here with us. Tom Wheelwright is going to discuss presidential candidates, tax plans, whether you should be scared about a tax on unrealized gains and a lot more. Also on a future episode, I'm going to talk about the land that is the vacant land that comes along with your rental property, what to look out for and what to avoid. It's really a little discussed subject that we haven't talked about here before. To learn more about Florida, build to rent property with those attractive rate buydowns, start at GRE marketplace.com Until next week, every host, Keith Weinhold, Don't Quit Your Daydream.

34:45

Nothing on this show should be considered specific, personal or professional advice. Please consult an appropriate tax, legal, real estate, financial or business professional for individualized advice. Opinions of guests are their own. Information is not guaranteed. All investment strategies have. Potential for profit or loss. The host is operating on behalf of Get Rich Education LLC, exclusively.

Keith Weinhold 35:13

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Mon, 2 September 2024

Futurist, Technologist and Author of many titles including the classic “Wealth and Poverty”, George Gilder joins us to discuss supply side economics and the transformative potential of using graphene material in various industries including real estate.

We discuss economic growth measured by time prices, showing that private sector progress is faster than GDP estimates.

Learn about graphene's properties, including its strength and conductivity, and its potential to transform various industries.

Graphene is a single layer of carbon atoms that is 200 times stronger than steel, 1000 times more conductive than copper and the world’s thinnest material.

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516: Is Every Debt Worth Paying Off?

Complete episode transcript:

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Keith Weinhold 00:01

Welcome to GRE. I'm your host. Keith Weinhold. I'm talking about the various economic scare tactics out there, like the BRICS, the FDIC and the housing crash. What lower interest rates mean? How our nation's $35 trillion debt has gone galactic. Then today's guest is a legend. He's a technologist and futurist. It tells us about today's promise of graphene in real estate all today on get rich education. when you want the best real estate and finance info, the modern Internet experience limits your free articles access, and it's replete with paywalls and you've got pop ups and push notifications and cookies disclaimers. Oh, at no other time in history has it been more vital to place nice, clean, free content in your hands that actually adds no hype value to your life. See, this is the golden age of quality newsletters, and I write every word of ours myself. It's got a dash of humor, and it's to the point to get the letter. It couldn't be more simple text, GRE to 66866, and when you start the free newsletter, you'll also get my one hour fast real estate course, completely free. It's called the Don't quit your Daydream letter, and it wires your mind for wealth. Make sure you read it. Text GRE to 66866, text GRE to 66866.

Corey Coates 01:40

you're listening to the show that has created more financial freedom than nearly any show in the world. This is Get Rich Education.

Keith Weinhold 01:56

Welcome to GRE from Dunedin, Florida to Dunedin, New Zealand and across 188 nations worldwide. I'm Keith Weinhold, and you are listening to get rich education, where real estate investing is our major. That's what we're here for, with minors in real estate economics and wealth mindset. You know, as a consumer of this media type as you are, it's remarkable how often you've probably encountered these de facto scare tactics, like the BRICS are uniting and it will take out the dollar and it's just going to be chaos in the United States. You might know that BRICS, B, R, I, C, S is the acronym for Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa. Do you know how hard it is to get off the petro dollar and how hard it is for the BRICS, which is basically more than just those five countries, it's dozens of countries. How hard it is for them to agree on anything with things as various as their different economies, and they'll have different customs and currencies. I mean, sheesh, just for you to get yourself and three friends all to agree to meet at the same coffee shop at the same time, takes, like a Herculean effort, plus a stroke of luck, and all full of you are like minded, so I wouldn't hold your breath on the dollar hyper inflating to worthlessness, although it should slowly debase. What about the scare tactic of the FDIC is going to implode, and this could lead to bank closures and widespread societal panic. Well, the FDIC, which stands for Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, they're the body that backs all of the US bank deposits, including yours, and it's steered by their systemic resolution Advisory Committee. Well, there are $9 trillion in bank deposits, and is backed by only a few 100 billion in FDIC cash, so there aren't nearly enough dollars to back the deposits. So can you trust your money in the bank? That's a prevalence scare tactic, but my gosh, if nothing else, history has shown that the government will step in to backstop almost any crisis, especially a banking related one, where one failure can have a cascading effect and make other institutions fall. I'm not saying that this is right, but time has proven that the government does and will step in, or the common scare tactic in our core of the world that is the eminent housing price crash. And I define a crash as a loss in value of 20% or more. Do you know how difficult this would be to do anytime soon? Housing demand still outstrips supply. Today's homeowners have loads of protective equity, an all time high of about 300k so they're not walking away from their homes. Inflation has baked higher replacement costs into the real estate cake, and now mortgage rates have fallen one and a half percent from this cycle's highs, and they are poised to fall further, so a housing price crash is super unlikely, and a new scare tactic for media attention seems to be this proposal by a future presidential hopeful about a tax on unrealized gains. Now Tom wheelwright is the tax expert. He's returning to the show with us again soon here, so maybe I'll ask him about it. But a tax on unrealized gains is politically pretty unpopular. It would be a mess to impose, and a lot of others have proposed it in the past as well, and it has not gone anywhere. Plus tax changes need congressional approval, and we have a divided Congress, there's a small chance that attacks on unrealized gains could come to fruition, but it would be tough. It's probably in the category of just another media scare tactic, much like the BRICS and the shaky FDIC banking structure had a housing price crash. I like to keep you informed about these things, and at times we do have guests with a disparate opinion from mine on these things. Good to get a diversity of opinions, but it's best not to go too deep into these scare tactics that are really unlikely to happen any time soon. Well, there was a party going on 10 days ago at what all affectionately dub club fed in Jacksonhole Wyoming, I don't know what the club fed cover charge was, but fortunately, we did not have to watch Janet "Grandma" Yellen dance at Club fed and and share. Jerome Powell, yes, he finally caught a rate cut buzz. He announced that the time has come for interest rate cuts, and as usual, he didn't offer specifics. Total rager. what a party. later this month, he's going to render the long awaited decision, which now seems to be, how much will cut rates by a quarter point or a half point? Did you know that it's been four and a half years since the Fed lowered rates? Yeah, that was March of 2020, at the start of the pandemic. And then we know what happened back in 2022 and 2023 they hiked rates so much that they needed trail mix, a sleeping bag and some Mountain House freeze dried meals to go along with their steady hiking cycle. Interest rates now, though have been untouched for over a year, it's been an interesting year for the Fed and rates many erroneously thought there would be six or more rate cuts this year. And what about Maganomics? Trump recently said that if he becomes president, he should be able to weigh in on fed decisions that would depart from a long time tradition of Fed independence from executive influence. Historically, they've been separated.

Donald Trump 08:26

The Federal Reserve's a very interesting thing, and it's sort of gotten it wrong a lot. And he's tending to be a little bit later on things. He gets a little bit too early and a little bit too late. And, you know, that's very largely a it's a gut feeling. I believe it's really a gut feeling. And I used to have it out with him. I had it out with him a couple of times, very strongly. I fought him very hard. And, you know, we get along fine. We get along fine. But I feel that, I feel the president should have at least say in there. Yeah, I feel that strongly. I think that, in my case, I made a lot of money. Iwas very successful, and I think I have a better instinct than in many cases, people that would be on the Federal Reserve or the chairman.

Keith Weinhold 09:10

Those Trump remarks were just a few weeks ago, and then shortly afterward, he seemed to walk those comments back, but he did say that he would not reappoint. DJ J-pal, to the economic turntables. It's a long standing economic argument as well about whether an outside force like the Fed should set interest rates at all, which is the price of money, rather than allowing the rate to float with the free market as lenders and borrowers negotiate with each other. I mean, no one's out there setting the price of oil or refrigerators or grapes, but it is pretty remarkable that the Fed has signaled that rate cuts are eminent when inflation is still 2.9% well above their 2% target. But let's be mindful about the Fed's twofold mission, what they call their dual mandate. It is stable prices and maximum employment. Well, the Fed's concern is that second one, it's that the labor market has slowed and see the way it works is pretty simple. Lower interest rates boost employment because it's cheaper for businesses to borrow money that encourages them to expand and hire, which is exactly how lower interest rates help the labor market. That's how more people get hired, and this matters because you need a tenant that can pay the rent. So the bottom line here is to expect lower interest rates on savings accounts, HELOCs, credit cards and automobile loans. What this means to real estate investors is that lower mortgage rates are eminent, although the change should be slow. Two years ago, mortgage rates rose faster than they're going to fall. Now, one thing that lower interest rates can do is lower America's own debt. Servicing costs and America's public debt is drastic. Now, between 35 and $36 trillion in fact, to put our debt into perspective, it has gone galactic. And I mean that in an almost literal sense, because look, if you line up dollars, dollar bills, which are about six inches long, if you line those up end to end from Earth, how far do you think that they would reach? How about to the moon? Oh, no, if you line up dollars end to end, they would stretch beyond the moon. Okay, let's see how far we can follow them out through the solar system. They would breeze past Mars, which is 140 million miles away, the next planet out Jupiter. Oh, our trail of dollar bills would extend beyond that. Next up is Saturn and its ring. The dollar bills would reach beyond that. We're getting to the outer planets now, Uranus still going. Neptune, okay, Neptune is about $30 trillion bills away, and we would have to go beyond that then. So our 35 to $36 trillion of national debt would almost reach Pluto that's galactic. That's amazing. That's bad, and it probably means we have to print more dollars in order to pay back the debt, which is, of course, long term inflationary. And I don't know what's stopping us from going from $36 trillion up to say, 100 trillion, gosh. next week here on the show, we're talking about real estate investing in one of the long time best and still hottest real estate investor states, and then later on, we've got brilliant tax wizard Tom wheelwright returning, as we know here at GRE real estate pays five ways, and if you have any Spanish speaking family or friends, I've got a great way for them to consume all five video modules. It's an AI converting my voice to Spanish in these videos, we have a Spanish speaker here on staff at Get Rich Education, and she said the dub is pretty good. Well, the entire package, real estate pays five ways in Espanol is condensed into a powerful one hour total, all five videos a course, all in one wealth building hour. It's free to watch. There's no email address to enter or anything you can tell your Spanish speaking family and friends, or maybe your multilingual and your primary language is Spanish. That is it getricheducation.com/espanolricheducation.com/espanol or a shorter way to get to the same pageis getricheducation.com/espricheducation.com/esp, that's getricheducation.com/esp.richeducation.com/esp. This week's guest is one of the first people I ever heard discussing the blockchain and cryptocurrency 15 years ago, and then he was early on AI. What got my attention is his education about a promising construction material for building new real estate, though, I expect that our discussion will delve outside of real estate today as well. Let's meet the incomparable George Gilder. This week's guest is the co founder at the Discovery Institute, discovery.org original pillar of supply side economics, former speechwriter to both Presidents Reagan and Nixon. And he's the author of the classic book on economics called Wealth and Poverty. Today he's at the forefront of technological breakthroughs. He's a Harvard grad. He wears a lot of stripes. I've only mentioned a few. Hey, welcome to GRE George Gilder.

George Gilder 15:09

right there better here.

Keith Weinhold 15:11

It's so good to host you, George, in both your writings and your influences on people like President Reagan, you champion supply side economics. And I think of supply side economics as things like lower taxes, less regulation and free trade. We had someone in the Reagan administration here with us a few months ago, David Stockman. He championed a lot of those same things. But go ahead and tell us more about supply side economics and what that means and how that's put into practice.

George Gilder 15:43

Well, it really begins with human creativity in the image of your Creator, essence of supply side economics now super abundant. I mean supply side economics triumphs. We had the whole information technology revolution ignited during the Reagan years and now dominates the world economy and gives the United States seven out of the top 10 companies in market cap. 70% of global corporate market cap is American companies because of supply side economics amazing, and that's why it's distressing to see supply side economics, with its promise of super abundance and prosperity and opportunity, Give way to narrow nationalistic calculations and four tenths of war. I mean, all these Jews are at the forefront. Today, in time, we're going to see human creativity once again prevail in my books, Life After Capitalism is my latest book, my new paradigm is graphene. Graphene is a single layer of carbon atoms, two dimensional layer of carbon atoms that is 200 times stronger than steel, 1000 times more conductive than copper. It switches and the terahertz trillions of times a second, rather than the billions of times a second that our current silicon chips which and you mix it with concrete, the concrete comes 35% stronger, just parts per million of graphene mixed with concrete yields some material that's 35% stronger than ordinary concrete. You mix a parts per million of graphene with asphalt, the roads don't get potholes in the winter. It's radically Abate, but it conducts signals so accurately. If you go on YouTube, you can find a mouse and said it's spinal cord severed completely, injected with graphene, the spinal signals transmitted so accurately that the you see the mouse doing cartwheels by the end of the YouTube measure. I mean, it's material that's going to transform all industries, from real estate to medicine to surgery to electronics. Electronics been kind of the spearhead of our economy, of the transformation and electronics may be more significant than any other domain.

Keith Weinhold 18:49

Well, this is a terrific overview of all the contributions you're making to both the economic world and the technology world with what you told us about right there. And I do want to ask you some more about the graphene and the technology later. But you know, if we bring it back to the economics, it was in your classic book, Wealth and Poverty, which sold over a million copies, where you espouse a lot of the same things that you still espouse today in your more recent books, that is, capitalism begins with giving, we can often think of it that way. As a real estate investor is where we need to give tenants a clean, safe, affordable, functional property before we profit. Capitalism begins with giving.

George Gilder 19:32

Absolutely. That's a crucial debate I had with Ayn Rand The Fountainhead and Atlas Shrugged and I say, capitalism is subsist on altruism. I'm concerned for the interests of others, imaginative anticipation of the needs of others. It's an altruistic, generous system, and from that generosity. Stems the amazing manifestations of super abundance that which I've been writing about recently. And super abundance shows, measured by time prices, how many hours a typical worker has to spend to earn the goods and services that sustain its life. Yeah, that's where the real cost has time. Yeah, time is money. Money is time, tokenized time, and measured by time, economic growth has been 50 to just enormously faster than is estimated by any of the GDP numbers. However, measured by time government services or ordinary GDP assumes that every dollar of government spending is worth what it costs. Prices both show that progress in the private sector has been four or five times faster than is estimated by GDP well government time, price of government dominated goods, including, increasingly, healthcare and education, is way less valuable than the cost. It's value subtracted, and certainly trillions of dollars for windmills and solar panels, trillions of dollars of subsidies is a net subtraction of value in the world economy. So I am with Gale Pooley and Tupy, both who wrote a book called Superabundance that I wrote the introduction to, and William Nordhaus, the Nobel laureate from Yale, who really conceived and developed time prices and showed that economic growth is 1000s of times greater than has been estimated by ordinary economic data. This is a time of abundance. It's not a time of scarcity. It's not a time of the dismal science. It's the time of super abundance.

Keith Weinhold 22:17

Yes, 100% a lot of that is just the government getting out of the way and really let people be givers, be that go giver and lead with giving, because I have never heard of a society that's taxed its way to prosperity.

George Gilder 22:34

Yeah. Well, that's absolutely the case. And I've been talking previously about graphene, which is the great new material that has been discovered of the last a couple decades. It originated, a lot of the science originated in Jim Tour's laboratory. James Tour of Rice University, and he's had scores of companies have emerged from his laboratory, and 18 of them got started in Israel. Israel is really become a leading force in the world economy. And when Israel is in jeopardy, our economy is in jeopardy. We have 100,000 Israeli citizens working in companies in Silicon Valley, 100,000 all the leading American tech companies have outposts in Israel, and now we face what I call the Israel test, which is how you respond to people who are really superior in creativity and accomplishment and intellect, and the appropriate thing to do is emulate them and learn from them. But too many people in the world see success and they want to tear it down, or they think it was stolen from someone else, or it was part of a zero sum game where the riches of one person necessarily come at the expense of someone else, which is the opposite of the truth, the riches proliferate opportunities for others. That's how the economy grows through the creativity and the image of your Creator.

Keith Weinhold 24:25

And when you bring up Israel, they're one of many nations that's made strong contributions to society and the economy, and we think about other nations that's been an increasingly relevant conversation these past few years, a lot of that centers on immigration. I'm not an expert on how many people we should let into this country or any of those sort of policy sorts of things, but here is a real estate investing show. I often think about where and how we're going to house all these immigrants, whether they come from Central America or South America or Israel or. Anywhere else. And I know oftentimes you've touted immigrations economic benefits, so I think it's pretty easy for one to see how in the short term, immigrants could be of economic detriment, but tell us more about those long term economic benefits of immigrants coming to the United States.

George Gilder 25:17

Immigrants come to the United States and become Americans and contribute American opportunity and wealth. We won the second world war because of immigration of Jewish scientists from Europe to the United States, who led by people like John von Neumann and Oppenheimer who forged the Manhattan Project, and that's really how we won the Second World War, was by accepting brilliant immigrants who wanted to serve America. Now there is a threat today where immigrants come to the United States not to contribute to the United States, but to exploit the United States, or even destroy it, not to go givers. They are givers, and so we want immigrants who are inclined to commit to America and create opportunities for the world, but immigrants who want to tear down America and who believe that America owes them something tend to be less productive and less valuable immigrants and immigrants who really want to destroy western civilization, and the jihadists that we know about are actually a threat to America. So the immigration problem isn't simple, but when we had a system where legal immigrants could apply and enter our country and revitalize it, that was a wonderful system, but having boards of illegal immigrants just pour over the border is not an intelligent way to deal with the desire of people around the world to share an American prosperity.

Keith Weinhold 27:13

We've seen several cases in the past year or two where immigrants are given free housing. There are really great case studies about this in Massachusetts and some other places, how they're giving housing before oftentimes, our own Americans, including sometimes retired veterans, are provided with housing. This all comes down to the housing crunch and already having a low housing supply. So what are some more your thoughts about just how much of a layup or a handout should we give new immigrants?

George Gilder 27:42

Housing technology is going to be transformed by the material science revolution that is epitomized by graphene, this miracle material I was describing. I think part of the problem is real estate enterprise is over regulated, and there are too many obstacles to the building of innovative new forms of housing. In 20 years, it'll be hard to recognize many of the structures that emerge as a result of real revolution in material science that is epitomized by this graphene age that I've been describing, and that also will transform electronics as well, and part housing can become a kind of computer platform as Elon Musk is transforming the auto business by seeing Tesla is really a new form of computer platform. I believe there's going to be an Elon Musk of real estate who is going to re envisage housing as a new form of building a computer platform that makes intelligent houses of the future that will be both cheaper and more commodious for human life.

Keith Weinhold 29:12

Real estate is rather old and slow moving when we think about technology in real estate, maybe what comes to mind are smart thermostats, smart doorbells, or 3d printed homes. When we come back, we're going to learn more about graphene and what it can do in real estate in the nanocosm revolution. Our guest is George Gilder. We talked about economics. We're coming back to talk about technology. I'm your host. Keith Weinhold.

Keith Weinhold

Hey, you can get your mortgage loans at the same place where I get mine, at Ridge lending group NMLS, 42056, they provided our listeners with more loans than any provider in the entire nation because they specialize in income properties. They help you build a long term plan for growing your real estate empire with less. Ridge you can start your pre qualification and chat with President Caeli Ridge personally. Start now while it's on your mind at ridgelendinggroup.com That's ridgelendinggroup.com. Your bank is getting rich off of you. The national average bank account pays less than 1% on your savings. If your money isn't making 4% you're losing your hard earned cash to inflation. Let the liquidity fund help you put your money to work with minimum risk, your cash generates up to an 8% return with compound interest year in and year out, instead of earning less than 1% sitting in your bank account, the minimum investment is just 25k you keep getting paid until you decide you want your money back. Their decade plus track record proves they've always paid their investors 100% in full and on time. And I would know, because I'm an investor too, earn 8% hundreds of others are text FAMILY to 66866, learn more about freedom. Family Investments Liquidity Fund on your journey to financial freedom through passive income. Text FAMILY to 66866.

Dolf Deroos 31:19

This is the king of commercial real estate. Dolph de Roos, listen to get rich education with Keith Weinhold, and don't quit your Daydream.

Keith Weinhold 31:32

Welcome back to Get Rich Education. We're joined by an illustrious, legendary guest, George Gilder, among being other things, including a prolific writer. He's also the former speechwriter to presidents Reagan and Nixon. He's got a really illustrious and influential career. George, you've been talking about graphene, something that I don't think our audience is very familiar with, and I'm not either. Tell us about graphene promise in real estate.

George Gilder 31:59

Well, back in Manchester, England, in 2004 graphene was first discovered and formulated. It actually was submerged before then, but the Nobel Prizes were awarded to Geim and Novoselov in2010. So this is a new material that all of us know when we use a lead pencil, a lead is graphite, and graphene is a single layer of graphite. And it turns out, many people imagined if you had a single layer of graphite, it would just break up. It would not be useful.

Keith Weinhold 32:42

We're talking super thin, like an atom.

George Gilder 32:45

Yeah, it's an atom thick, but still, it turns out that it has miraculous properties, that it's 200 times stronger than steel. If you put it in a trampoline, you couldn't see the trampoline, but you could bounce on it without go following through it. It can stop bullets. It means you can have invisible and almost impalpable bulletproof vests, and you mix it with concrete, and the concrete is becomes 35% stronger, even parts per million of graphene can transform the tensile strength of concrete, greatly reduce the amount you need, and enable all sorts of new architectural shapes and capabilities. We really are in the beginning of a new technological age, and all depressionary talk you hear is really going to be eclipsed over coming decades by the emergence of whole an array of new technologies, graphene, for instance, as a perfect film on wafer of silicon carbide and enable what's called terahertz electronics, which is trillions of cycles a second like light rather than billions of cycles a second like or Nvidia or L silicon chips, and it really obviates chips, because you what it allows is what's called wafer scale integration of electronics, and today, it the semiconductor industry, and I've written 10 books on semiconductors over the years, but the semiconductor industry functions by 12 inch wafers that get inscribed with all sorts of complex patterns that are a billionth of a meter in diameter. These big wafers and then the way. First get cut up into 1000s of little pieces that each one gets encapsulated in plastic packages and by some remote Asian islands, and then get implanted on printed circuit boards that arrayed in giant data centers that now can on track to consume half the world's energy over the next 20 years, and these new and all this technology is ultimately going to be displaced by wafer scale integration on The wafer itself. You can have a whole data center on a 12 inch wafer with no chips. It's on the wafer itself. And this has been recently announced in a paper from Georgia Tech by a great scientist named Walter de Heere. And it's thrilling revolution that that render as much as Silicon Valley obsolescent and opens up just huge opportunities in in construction and real estate and architecture and medicine and virtually across the range of contemporary industry.

Keith Weinhold 36:20

You wrote a book about blockchain and how we're moving into the post Google world is what you've called it. So is this graphene technology that you're discussing with us here? Is that part of the next thing, which you're calling the nanocosm revolution?

George Gilder 36:36

The microcosm was an earlier book the quantum revolution and economics and technology. I thought I wrote years ago called microcosm.

Keith Weinhold 36:46

Okay, we're getting smaller than microcosm now in nanocosm.

36:49

that was microns, that was millionths of a meter dimensions of the transistors and devices and silicon chips, the nanocosm is a billionth of the meter. It's 1000 times smaller the features and electronics of the future, and we're moving from the microcosm into the nanocosm. New materials like graphene epitomize this transformation. You know, people think that these giant data centers all around the world, which are amazing structures, but half the energy in these data centers are devoted to removing the heat rather than fueling the computation. And I believe these data centers are represent a kind of IBM mainframe of the current era. When I was coming up, people imagined that a few 100 IBM mainframe computers, each weighing about a ton, would satisfy all the world's needs for computation, and that new artificial minds could be created with these new IBM mainframes. And it's the same thing today, only we're talking about data centers, and I believe that the coming era will allow data centers in your pocket and based on graphene electronics, and wait for scale integration, a whole new paradigm that will make the current data centers look like obsolete, old structures that need to be revitalized.

Keith Weinhold 38:37

Around 2007 Americans and much of the world, they got used to how it feels to have the power of a computer in their pocket with devices like the iPhone. How would it change one's everyday life to have effectively a data center in their pocket?

38:54

This means that we no longer would be governments of a few giant companies hearing a singular model of intelligence. That's what's currently envisaged, that Google Brain or Facebook or these giant data setters would sum up all human intelligence and in a particular definition, but there are now 8 billion human beings on earth, and each of our minds is as densely connected as the entire global internet. And while the global Internet consumes error watts, trillions of watts of power, or brains. Each of these 8 billion human minds functions on 12 to 14 watts, or it's billions of times less than these data center systems. On the internet. I believe that technology works to the extent that it expands human capabilities, not to the extent that it displaces human capabilities. The emergence of distributed databases in all our pockets, distributed knowledge and distributed creativity can revitalize the whole world economy and open new horizons that are hard to imagine today, as long as we don't, all of a sudden decide that we live in a material universe where everything is scarce and successes by one person come at the expense of somebody else, as long as that zero sum model doesn't prevail, right? Human opportunities are really unlimited. Most of economics has been based on a false model of scarcity, the only thing that's really scarce is time. Imagination and creativity are really infinite.

Keith Weinhold 41:10

Yes, well, if someone wants to learn more about graphene in the nanocosm revolution, how can you help them? What should they do?

41:18

They can read my newsletters. I have a company with four newsletters. I write the Gilder Technology Report. Much of the time I write, John Schroeder writes moonshots, which is and I have a Gilder Private Reserve that reaches out with our crowd and Israel, and a lot of those graph gene companies in Israel are part of our Private Reserve. And I do Gilders Guide posts, and those are all available getgilder.com.

Keith Weinhold 41:56

if you'd like to learn more about George and his popular newsletter called the Gilder Technology Report. You can learn more about that at get gilder.com George, it's been an enlightening conversation about economics and where society is moving next. Thanks so much for coming on to the show.

George Gilder 42:16

Thank you, Keith. I really appreciate it.

Keith Weinhold 42:24

yeah, a forward looking discussion with the great George Gilder. Forbes said graphene may be the next multi trillion dollar material. George will tell you that you want to get into graphene now, while the biggest gains are still ahead. If it interests you in at least learning more, check out his video resource. It's free. There's also an opportunity for you to be an investor. You can do all of that and more at getgilder.com again getguilder.com until next week. I'm your host. Keith Weinhold. Don't Quit Your Daydream.

43:04

Keith Weinhold 43:32

The preceding program was brought to you by your home for wealth building. GetRichEducation.com

Direct download: GREepisode517_.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 4:00am EST

Mon, 26 August 2024

In this episode Keith shares the survey results on what the highest rising cost for landlords is and what to do about it. He challenges the conventional wisdom that all debts should be paid off.

He talks about how the rising costs of homeowners insurance and property taxes are the most significant expenses for single family landlords

76% of single-family landlords plan to raise rents over the next 12 months, with 35% expecting increases over 4%.

Learn about the concept of debt as leverage and its role in wealth building. The importance of liquidity, interest rate arbitrage, and the ability to outsource debt payments.

How inflation impacts debt.

Understand the benefits of debt in real estate investment, including the ability to own more properties and create arbitrage opportunities.

Show Notes:

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515: Unpacking the Myths: How Rent Control Affects Housing Quality and Availability

Complete episode transcript:

Automatically Transcribed With Otter.ai

Keith Weinhold 00:00

Welcome to GRE. I'm your host. Keith Weinhold. The economy is affecting real estate in some interesting ways. Now, vital trends revealed from a survey of single family landlords. Then the heart of today's show is every debt that you have worth paying off. The answer is no, with some surprising reasons all today on Get Rich Education. When you want the best real estate and finance info, the modern Internet experience limits your free articles access, and it's replete with paywalls and you've got pop ups and push notifications and cookies, disclaimers. Oh, had no other time in history has it been more vital to place nice, clean, free content into your hands that actually adds no hype value to your life? See, this is the golden age of quality newsletters, and I write every word of ours myself, it's got a dash of humor, and it's to the point to get the letter. It couldn't be more simple. Text, GRE 66866 and when you start the free newsletter, you'll also get my one hour fast real estate course, completely free. It's called The Don't quit your Daydream letter and it wires your mind for wealth. Make sure you read it. Text GRE to 66866, text GRE to 66866.

Corey Coates 01:34

You're listening to the show that has created more financial freedom than nearly any show in the world. This is Get Rich Education.

Keith Weinhold 01:51

Welcome to GRE you are listening to the voice of real estate investing since 2014 I'm your host, Keith Weinhold back to help you build your wealth for another week. This is Get Rich Education. That's just one of many things that makes this show different from other shows, or just consuming news stories. Here, you stay updated on important real estate investing trends, but you learn specific strategies to actionably build your wealth. That's the difference, and it's with the most generationally proven medium of real estate, all without you having to be a flipper and often not a landlord either. Now, presidential candidates make lots of promises during their campaigns, that includes with real estate here recently, even if you're listening 10 years from now, I'll tell you how to put something like this into perspective. Kamala Harris unveiled her plan to spur the construction of 3 million more housing units. That's a good thing. America needs more housing. She also wants to give federal assistance, and by the way, that means your money. She wants to give federal assistance in the form of a $25,000 down payment help for first time home buyers. I see that as a bad thing, and see there's no partisan bias here at GRE a lot of media outlets, they will filter something like this is all good or all bad, because they get better ratings when they rile people up, and that results in a divided America. But the problem is that the 25k of down payment help that can be delivered faster than new homes can be built, and that risks pushing up home prices faster, sooner, which arose the very affordability that's trying to be helped here now a presidential candidate, be it Kamala Harris or anyone when they have this enthusiasm to also limit price gouging at grocery stores here, like this candidate does. I mean, that's the beginning of price controls, and when there are price controls, no farmer is going to want to produce cherry tomatoes or Fisher is going to want to produce wild caught salmon if they have a significant price ceiling limiting the supply of those things. Therefore, I mean, when we had price controls in the high inflation 70s, that created shortages. And it's important to keep in mind that presidential campaign promises, they often don't become policies that are enacted even if that person is elected president, and even if they are, much of this still requires congressional approval, and we still have a divided Congress, and any tax changes require the approval of Congress. So really, this stuff is just a presidential wish list, giving you some perspective here. Now on the topic of shortages, there still is not enough available supply of US homes, active listings, those seeking a starter home often get more worn out than your grandpa after two games of checkers. But inventory levels are not as bad as they used to be, we still got a ways to go to claw back close to a more normal, balanced pre pandemic housing supply level nationally, we are still 29% lower. There are now still 29% fewer active listings than there were in pre pandemic times and most individual states still have inventory levels lower than that, too, compared to five years ago, when we break it down by state, some have a more paltry supply than others, though, places with the scarcest inventory, they seem To be those states where maple syrup gets produced, as it turns out, and I sure hope that this doesn't mean people need to sleep in the sugar shack. Connecticut is down 75% that means they have 75% less inventory than five years ago, pre pandemic, Illinois down 66%, New Jersey down 57%, Virginia down 53%, Pennsylvania, Massachusetts and Michigan all with 51% less inventory than they had pre pandemic. Ohio down 43%, California and Missouri each down 31%. The main problem here is that the Northeast and Midwest have not had enough home building in order to keep up with housing demand. I guess what? There were too many snow days in the Northeast and Midwest, or were builders constantly distracted by potholes and cicadas? Conversely, there are three popular investor states where for sale inventory is just a tad higher now than it was five years ago. Texas is up 6%, Florida up 5%, Tennessee up 2% and this doesn't mean that these states are oversupplied with housing, it just means that they have a touch more than they did in 2019 so they're closer to balance. The important overall thing to remember here is, of course, that nationally, buyers still outnumber sellers. So between the lower mortgage rates that we've had in the past year and the low supply, this keeps the environment ripe. There will be more offers and more potential for home prices to increase faster than its current rate of 4.1%. That 4.1% year over year, as per the NAR, it's important for you to understand that there's virtually no way that prices can revert to their pre pandemic levels. Home prices are not going back to where they used to be five years ago. In fact, there is more pressure on them to rise from here not fall, and there are a few reasons why prices cannot go back to where they were. The rate of inflation has slowed. You've seen the price of lumber come down, but wider inflation has been indelibly baked into the pricing cake. Homes now have higher, permanently embedded costs of labor, materials and land that all have more stick-to-itiveness to them than Simone Biles on the balance beam. Prices are not coming down anytime in the near future. You might remember that right here on this show in in our newsletter, back in late December, eight months ago, I forecast that national home prices would rise 4% this year, and I still really like how that looks. I'll get back to the investment side here shortly, but real quick, in light of the new rules about how real estate agents are compensated if you're about to buy a primary residence, you may not have any experience negotiating with a broker. In last week's newsletter, I sent you a template you can use and that can help you simplify the process as a buyer and help you avoid being taken advantage of. I sent you that template last Thursday. Back here on the real estate investor side, after a high tide of inflation, you know, you and I, we have all surely enjoyed the splash of both higher property prices and rents. That looks to continue. But what about your higher property expenses, too? Let's talk about what you've got to do to avoid getting crunched by expenses. A survey of single family landlords was recently conducted by lending one in resi club, and they asked this question, what is your expense that increased the most the past 12 months? The number one answer is fast rising insurance premiums, with half of respondents citing that as their biggest expense increase item. And that's hardly a new development, not surprising. The next biggest expense was property tax, 27% of respondents cited that. That's mostly a reflection of higher property values and their consequent tax assessments. 235 single family landlords completed this survey, by the way. So they were the proportion of landlords that answered about what was their fastest increasing expense. Half of them said insurance, easily the most well, the rate of increase in homeowners insurance costs was roughly 10 to 12% nationally last year. That's according to the Insurance Information Institute, and the top two reasons for this are more severe storms and higher replacement costs. The good news is that further rate increases are cooling off, though, all right, but still, what are you to do as a rental property owner that's stuck with a higher property insurance bill? I've got a great answer for you, and it's so incredibly simple. You pass the expense along to your tenant with a rent increase, and then others can deal with what happens downstream from there. And I'll tell you how to go about doing this shortly, which is also so incredibly simple. But if you're reluctant to pass along the increased insurance expense to your tenant, understand that you and your tenant are just like two ports along a river. As this wave of inflation flows along, it flows from the reinsurer to the insurer, to you, the property owner, to the increased rent, to the hike in the tenant wage, to the employer, and then the employer hikes prices on the consumer. That's how the river flows. No watered down returns for you. Now, of course, this River's headwaters are sourced with the government, because that's where inflation comes from. Inflation means an expansion of the money supply. You and your tenant are really two ports along the river. Don't let the expense water dam up and flood you, and the written reason that you give your tenant for the rent increase is drum roll here, higher insurance costs. Yeah, that's it. It's super simple. There's no need to be inventive here. Honesty is therefore the best river raft. Hey, come on now this remorseless geography degree holder has got to let loose with something like river references from time to time. So that's the greatest expense increase item, what to do about it and how you should go about doing it. Now this same survey of single family landlords, they showed that 76% expect to reach high watermarks and raise the rent over the next 12 months, including 35% of landlords who say the rent increase will be over 4% and planned rent increases of one to 7% are most common. That's the planned rent increase range one to 7%. Look, you didn't get into real estate to subsidize others living expenses. There is nothing unethical about adjusting to market level rent. Rent hikes are like a lock lifting your ship through the Panama Canal. All right, so what do we make of this. I mean, gaging, overall investor sentiment is we head later into the 2020s, decade. What is the landlord temperature? As I see it, expenses are up. Higher. Rents follow. And last quarter, home values increased in almost 90% of us, Metro markets, yes, property values are up in 89% of Metro markets. But how do single family landlords in this same survey feel? Well, 60% of them say they will buy at least one investment property over the next 12 months. So most single family landlords they want to buy more. And when that's broken down by region, the most single family real estate investor optimism is in the Midwest, Northeast and South. And really single family landlords are optimistic in every region except the West. And this makes sense. Cash Flows are less lucrative in the West because prices have long outpaced rents there, the survey really shows that most aren't wildly bullish or excessively bearish on the real estate market. They expect it to stay balanced. Many plan to buy properties raise rents, and the survey shows that they, too, expect a 4% home price appreciation rate. That's what it showed, and they anticipate falling interest rates. Now, personally, I often disagree with what the masses think. I mean, contrarians to the mainstream, they are often the profiteers. But in this case, I guess I'm more agreeable with the survey respondents than a perfectly brewed cup of coffee in the morning. And well, maybe that's because single family landlords, the very people that were surveyed are not mainstream. The housing market is actually pretty normal in most every significant way, except, of course, the ongoing lack of housing inventory and affordability challenges for first time homebuyers. And if you're a newer GRE listener, even normal times can be thrilling for a real estate investor when you achieve a 40% plus total rate of return from how real estate pays you five ways. Yes, if you're new here, I know that sounds like an unachievable return, but 40% plus is actually realistic without high risk when you understand your five simultaneous profit sources with income producing property. In fact, when someone asks why you invest in real estate, you can just hold up five fingers. The broader economy shows a lot of signs of normalcy as well, GDP, growth, consumer spending, unemployment, the inflation rate, but the sad exception here is this widening gap between the wealthy and the poor, so I guess that more people charter yachts and yet others increasingly pour mountain dew on their fruit loops in the morning for breakfast. Now, complete uncertainty never disappears, but after disruptions from covid, high inflation and new wars, a lot of people see calmer times ahead. Elections matter, but some people seem more concerned about who the next President will be than the parent of a Sephora obsessed teen. Presidential elections aren't known to rock the real estate market, and actually, history shows that the more sensitive stock market is only temporarily affected by an election. Sometimes I just ponder and quietly think to myself, hmm, when the liquid death drink brand thrives from Hawking wildly overpriced water in a can, I posit just how bad can the economy really be? The bottom line is that most single family investors are meeting higher insurance expenses with rent increases and they want to buy more income property over the next 12 months.

Hey, if you like this show here, and you get value from it every week, I love it when you just simply tell a friend about the show, it's as easy as having them download our dedicated Get Rich Education mobile app for both iOS and Android. If you think you have any friends that would benefit from the vital episode here, I'd be grateful if you shared the show with them, use the Share button on your podcaster, or even take a screenshot and post it to your social. Straight ahead is any debt worth paying off? I'm Keith Weinhold. You're listening to Get Rich Education.

Hey, you can get your mortgage loans at the same place where I get mine, at Ridge Lending Group NMLS, 42056, they provided our listeners with more loans than any provider in the entire nation, because they specialize in income properties, they help you build a long term plan for growing your real estate empire with leverage. You can start your pre qualification and chat with President Caeli Ridge personally. Start now while it's on your mind at Ridgelendinggroup.com that's Ridgelendinggroup.com.

Keith Weinhold 19:47

Your bank is getting rich off of you. The national average bank account pays less than 1% on your savings. If your money isn't making 4% you're losing your hard earned cash to inflation. Let the liquidity fund help you put your money to work with minimum risk, your cash generates up to an 8% return with compound interest, year in and year out. Instead of earning less than 1% sitting in your bank account, the minimum investment is just 25k, you keep getting paid until you decide you want your money back. Their decade plus track record proves they've always paid their investors 100% in full and on time. And I would know, because I'm an investor too, earn 8% hundreds of others are text FAMILY to 66866, learn more about Freedom Family Investments, Liquidity Fund, on your journey to financial freedom through passive income. Text, FAMILY to 66866.

Dani-Lynn Robison 20:49

This is Freedom Family Investments Co-founder, Dani-Lynn Robison, listen to Get Rich Education with Keith Weinhold, and Don't Quit Your Daydream.

Keith Weinhold 20:57

Welcome back to Get Rich Education. I'm your host, Keith Weinhold, you're listening to Episode 516 is every debt that you have worth paying off? The short answer is no. I have held millions of dollars in debt from a young age, and I just keep holding on to more and more. Look what happens to your net worth when you pay down one of your debts, absolutely nothing happens to your net worth. It stays the same. All right. Say that the total value of all of your assets gives you a sum of one and a half million dollars. That's the combined value of any of your real estate, cars, retirement accounts, gold, Bitcoin, all of it, anything of value one and a half million and totaling up all of your debts equals just a half million. That's your mortgages, automobile debt, credit card debt, everything. All right, so you've got one and a half million in assets and 500k in debt. So you've got a million dollar net worth, okay, well, next, say that you decide to pay down 100k of your debt. All right. Well, what's the result? You've got only $1.4 million in assets and just 400k in debt. Well, the result is that your net worth is still a million bucks. You've now got fewer assets and less debt, so you just broke even. But it could be worse than just a break even, because what if, one month after you made this debt pay down. You now need that 100k back for living expenses, but you can no longer get it returned to you because you lost your job, so no one will qualify you for a loan again, or you still have your job. But lending standards have tightened and changed now your 100k is on the other side of a wall that you can't access. So debt pay down isn't just a question of net worth, it's liquidity. And there are some more layers here that we're going to get into paying down mortgage debt. It also builds home equity. Well, that is usually a bad thing, because, as I'm known for saying, home equity is unsafe, illiquid, and its rate of return is always zero. Do you know the crowd that sometimes forgets this and really gets penalized? It is seniors, retirees. All right, what happens when a person is older and they've had a paid off home for a while. People get a reverse mortgage. They need funds for living expenses. Well, reverse mortgages, they have high fees, and also you can't get nearly all of your equity out. You'll often only get up to 60 to 65% loan to value, meaning that 35 to 40% of that hard earned equity that you worked decades for. First it became trapped with no return, and now it's essentially gone. Poof. For all those years, your home is paid off, even if it began as early as your 30s, like it does for some people all that time your equity wasn't earning any rate of return. And the earlier in life you learned that the ROI from home equity is always zero, the better. You didn't see any bill for this loss. You just never saw the gain that you should have had. And that's part of the reason why this myth that home equity is such a great thing perpetuates and carries on for generations. All right, well, we are just getting warmed up here at a key financial question in your life. That question is, is every debt that you have worth paying off?

24:58

Did you know millions of Americans live with debt they cannot control. That's why I developed this unique new program for managing your debt. It's called Don't buy stuff you cannot afford. Let me see that. If you don't have any money, you should not buy anything. hmm sounds interesting, sounds confusing.

Keith Weinhold 25:24

Well, there's a little something to be said for that. But what about interest rate? If that 100k that you paid down was for credit card debt? All right? Well, that was probably a good thing. 44% of American credit card holders carry debt month to month. Now I'm going to guess for you the GRE listener, it's even less likely than that that you carry debt month per month, where you would be subject to credit card finance charges. The average credit card interest rate in America is about 25% today, and it is unsecured debt, meaning that it's a debt type that's not backed by collateral. Now, yes, you can beat a 25% return if you're leveraged in real estate, but your liquid cash flow drain is drastic on credit cards. The other problem with credit cards is that you have to pay your own debt. Later, I'll talk about when others pay your debt for you. And if you have decided that you have some debts worth paying down because its interest rate is too high for goodness sake, pay the one with the highest interest rate first. I know there's a school of thought that says, pay the debt with the lowest balance. First, that is nonsense. Now, sometimes, if you know specifically what you're doing with credit cards, you can play some little games with them. I mean, personally, after I finished college, I kept transferring credit card balances with 0% APR, Intro offers, introductory offers that were for a limited time at 0% and then I kept track of that so that intro rate didn't expire. But this isn't any sort of long term wealth building strategy. Higher balance transfer fees have made that strategy less lucrative. Now too, banks have tightened that up. When it comes to interest rates, it's about that arbitrage. Ask yourself really two questions when it comes to arbitrage, which is just a fancy sounding way of making a profit or a spread. First, you need to ask yourself, how good of an investor Are you? What percent return can you reliably earn from your investments? Say you think it's 15% then if you're plus 15 but the interest rate on your debt is 8, well, then you've got 7 points of arbitrage or profit. So keep the 8% debt. And then secondly on arbitrage plays. Ask yourself, can I afford the cash flow if I keep this debt around? Because if you're 15% return, just say that it's all tied up in the appreciation of a property. Well, that's not very liquid, so you're going to need to have the free cash to make the payments on your 8% interest rate loan. Let's talk about other times not to pay down the debt. Say you're trying to build up an emergency fund of at least three months, or you want to contribute to your employer match in your company's retirement plan, you may very well want to fund those things before you pay down debt too. Now some say, hey, you know something. Just forget about all these numbers like rates of return and interest rates. You know, debt just makes me feel anxiety and feel stress and sleeplessness. There is emotion here, so let me just get it paid off. Or I'm afraid that if I've got some money and I don't pay off my debt, that I'll just lose all of the money to sports gambling, and to that, I say, come on, be an adult. Set some boundaries. Dog ears, some cash for entertainment, and have a firm line. Learn how to use that to your advantage. Debt is like fire. It can burn you if you don't know how to use it, and it can heat your home if you do know how to use it. And if debt gives you sleeplessness. Here, this will help you sleep your debts, principal balance is being debased for you as you sleep, every single one of your debts is being eroded by inflation. Right now, as you listen to me, your principal balance is quietly, debasing and passively, eroding with your say 500k of total debt. We have 10% inflation over a couple years. Well, that erodes its weight down to 450k all without you having to get involved and make any pay downs at all. As wages go higher, and so do prices and rents and salaries, as they all spiral higher, it gets easier to pay back those principal balances. And debt is the most powerful wealth building force that I know of, because debt is leverage. Compound interest is weak. Leverage is powerful. Debt allows you to own and control five times as many properties as you could if they were all paid off. And if you don't understand this, or if your jaw hit the floor, what I just said a minute ago, that compound interest is weak. I just discussed this for you in clear detail nine weeks ago, on Get Rich Education podcast episode 507. So go and check that out. One attribute of real estate debt is that as you get properties where the rent income meets or exceeds the expenses, congratulations, you have reliably outsourced all of your debt payments to tenants. See, most of my debt, personally, virtually all of it, it isn't really going to be paid back by me. It's my tenants, and that is another reason to keep debt in place and only make the minimum payment. Let's talk about another reason to pay down your debt when a payoff or pay down actually does make sense, even if it's at a low interest rate, it's when an outside force kind of makes you pay down your debt. And here's what I'm talking about. Say you're trying to buy a property, whether that's a primary residence or rental, and that you've got say, Oh, just $11,000 left to pay on your car loan at a 5% interest rate, even though you can't outsource the payments. That's a pretty nice low 5% interest rate, you're confident that you can beat that and earn more elsewhere, so you'd rather enjoy the positive arbitrage instead of paying that off. And I'd feel the same way. But here's the twist, your mortgage loan officer says you've got to pay the $11,000 down to zero because your debt to income ratio is too high. So if you want the mortgage, the big loan amount, you've got to pay off the car loan, the little loan amount. Well, that's a case when it makes sense to pay off that automobile loan debt then, and also, when it comes to your credit score, you might need to improve it to qualify for another loan so you can get a low interest rate and 30% of your FICO score is made up of your amounts owed. I'm answering a vital question for you today, and that is, is every one of your debts worth paying off? I'm sharing information, perspective and experience with you here, and this experience was built, just like all experiences, and I didn't always have the experience, of course. Now my parents and I split my college loan costs, 5050, I still had student loan debts for a few years after graduating, and you know, I can't remember what my student loan interest rates were maybe 6% blended because I had a few different student loans, some of which I did transfer onto those 0% intro, APR credit cards, by the way. But after my student loans were paid off, and I started investing in real estate and understanding terms like leverage and arbitrage, you know, I started to wonder if it would be desirable to have those student loans back rather than paying them off so fast I could have owned another property or two sooner, and I'll never know the opportunity cost of not benefiting from the returns on owning more Property sooner. And of course, student loan debt is one of the few debt types that cannot be written off in bankruptcy that tilts back a little toward paying them off sooner than later. What you just heard me talk about here for the last 15 or so minutes is a message that hundreds of millions of people need to hear it's that not every debt is worth paying off or even paying down. So to help give you a summary answer to our question, is every debt worth paying off? The answer is no, and the key considerations are liquidity, interest rate arbitrage inyour ability to outsource the debt. Debt is good when it helps you buy a cash flowing asset or create arbitrage. Debt is probably even good when it helps you buy a home for your family and have a sense of permanency and a mantle to place baseballs and hang Christmas stockings from and build memories. And now this is all because every single one of us either uses debt or we forego the opportunity to use debt. Well, when we forego using debt, we are now subject to a resultant opportunity cost, and this is why a central and enduring mantra here at GRE is that financially free beats debt free. Financially free means that you have enough residual income streams to meet all of your expenses and live just how you want to live. Debt Free means that you don't owe anyone anything, but if you put debt free before financially free, you are going to grind and live below your means and eat dirt and miss opportunities for decades.

And speaking of leveraging your way to financial freedom with assets, the way that we actionably help you here is by recommending income producing providers and properties for you. And you probably noticed over time that GRE marketplace properties here are less expensive than elsewhere. And you might wonder why exactly is this? Well, there's a few reasons. Investor advantage markets have low prices. Also, there is no agent you get to buy directly. Thirdly, providers provide homes in bulk, keeping your costs down. And then finally, there are no owner occupied emotions involved here with buying and owning rental properties, so you don't have sellers that are making unreasonable requests. So this helps answer why GRE marketplace properties are often good deals. Now it seems like states with the best cash flow in real estate are the same ones where people are more likely to wear bib overalls. That's just how it is. In fact. Hey, case in point, I just learned about some brand new, new build single family rentals in southwest Missouri at GRE marketplace. They're available for you to own regardless of where you live. They make ideal rentals, and they come with free property management for the first year. And because they're freshly built. Expect the likelihood of a quality tenant, light maintenance and low repair costs for years. Let me just quickly mention two of them to give you a feel. The first one is in Carthage, Missouri. The single family rental is three bed, two bath. Rent 1550 the price is 206k it's 1200 square feet, built this year. You get a $1,200 rent credit with it. So it's going to take a 51k down payment, and it produces cash flow. The second one is in Carl Junction, Missouri, four bed two bath in this single family rental. The rents $1,875 the price $250,500 1683 square feet built this year. 62k down and produces cash flow. And like I said, both come with free property management for the first year, and we can help set up an entire real estate investment plan for you, whether it's with these properties or others in multiple states, where we help you make it easy on yourself and contact a GRE investment coach. It is truly free always. There aren't going to be any hidden coaching bills that pop up in the mail. We don't have some paid coaching program. We're trying to upsell you. We don't have anything to sell, and our coaches are like advisors, consultants, super connectors and like silent partners on your deals, and they get zero equity in the deal. And our coaches don't wear Bib Overalls either. So they keep it really relatable for you, make it actionable and make a real difference in your life, start at gremarketplace.com. That's where you can contact a GRE investment coach, and we'll see how we can help you out from gremarketplace.com just click on the free investment coaching button. Until next week, I'm your host, Keith Weinhold, and I'll be back to help you build your wealth, Don't Quit Your Daydream.

39:46

Nothing on this show should be considered specific, personal or professional advice. Please consult an appropriate tax, legal, real estate, financial or business professional for individualized advice. Opinions of guests are their own. Information is not guaranteed or investment strategies have the potential for profit or loss. The host is operating on behalf of get rich Education LLC, exclusively.

Keith Weinhold 40:06

The preceding program was brought to you by your home for wealth building. GetRichEducation.com.

Direct download: GREepisode516_.mp3
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Mon, 19 August 2024

Independent documentary filmmaker and policy analyst at Reason Foundation, Jen Sidorova, joins us to discuss how rent control impacts tenants, landlords and the housing market. Her latest short film project, “Shabbification: The Story of Rent Control”, reflects how rent control has a direct effect on housing quality.

Almost half of rentals in NYC are rent-stabilized.

We highlight the challenges faced by small property owners and the potential consequences of these regulations on the housing market.
Bathtub in your kitchen, anyone? Yes, you read that correctly. In some cases maintenance has been deferred for so long that units have not been updated to code.

Learn about the history of rent control and stabilization laws in New York.

Resources mentioned:

Show Notes:

GetRichEducation.com/515

You can follow Jen on Instagram @jen_sidorova or check out her writing at reason.org

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514: Zoning Out: How to Combat the Housing Crisis and Build Wealth

Complete episode transcript:

Automatically Transcribed With Otter.ai

Keith Weinhold 0:01

Welcome to GRE. I discuss the effect that now lower mortgage rates can have how to get a strong return with private lending. Then, for this week's guest, she is a public policy expert with reason.com maker of a new film called Shabbification that spotlights the perils and even horrors of rent control in New York City, and she's a young Russian immigrant that lives in one unit of a Buffalo fourPlex and rents out the other three today on Get Rich Education.

When you want the best real estate and finance info, the modern Internet experience limits your free articles access, and it's replete with paywalls and you've got pop ups and push notifications and cookies disclaimers. Oh, at no other time in history has it been more vital to place nice, clean, free content into your hands that actually adds no hype value to your life. See, this is the golden age of quality newsletters, and I write every word of ours myself. It's got a dash of humor, and it's to the point to get the letter. It couldn't be more simple text, GRE to 66866, and when you start the free newsletter, you'll also get my one hour fast real estate course, completely free. It's called the Don't quit your Daydream letter, and it wires your mind for wealth. Make sure you read it. Text GRE to 66866, text GRE to 66866.

Corey Coates 1:40

you're listening to the show that has created more financial freedom than nearly any show in the world. This is Get Rich Education.

Keith Weinhold 1:56

Welcome to GRE from Ankara,Turkey to Anchorage, Alaska and across 488 nations worldwide. I'm Keith Weinhold, and you're listening to Get Rich Education. Today's guest was one of four panelists at a conference that I attended recently. The panel was named innovative solutions to the housing crisis, and her story struck me as interesting, so I invited her to be on the show today, we'll learn that with rent control in New York City, when landlords cannot go inside their own properties and aren't allowed to sell their own properties, seven states have price ceilings on rents, and I'll tell you here At GRE we avoid investing in these places. Listen closely, California, New York, New Jersey, Maryland, Maine, Oregon, Minnesota and then DC too. Now sometimes rent control isn't too restrictive. For example, you can raise the rent no more than the rate of inflation plus 3% per year, or the rate of inflation plus 5% per year. And also, it's not all parts of those states where it applies. In fact, you typically do not find the policies statewide in those states that I mentioned, although you do in Oregon, it's statewide in Oregon, and there you can still raise the rent 7% plus the rate of inflation each year. And the good news is that 37 states actually have laws against rent control, specifically saying that you cannot enact it. So not only do 37 states not have it, they just wouldn't even allow a law for it. And there is a strong consensus, like I mentioned here on the show before, among economists that rent control, it reduces the quantity and quality of housing. Today, we'll focus on just how dilapidated rental units become under rent stabilization, which is a lot like rent control in New York City. And we'll discuss New York State and Buffalo. And by the way, I find something amazing. I mean, just say you would ask a question of any citizen of the world, no matter where they live, from Indonesia to Japan, to Bangladesh, to Nigeria to the United States. If you would just ask any citizen of the world, what is the capital of the world? I think that the best answer that you could come up with is New York City. I'm in the United States, and there are people right here in this country that have such little understanding of New York City, and what goes on there, and where it even is, it just amazes me. Maybe it's my own bias, because I'm a geography guy, but now, for example, to get from New York City out to Buffalo, that's an almost seven hour drive to the northwest two different parts of New York State. These are two very different places. We'll get into that shortly. But first in the wider real estate world, I did a little research since first mentioning this to you last week here, where mortgage rates have fallen fully one and a half points from the recent high. All right. Well, with every half point drop in mortgage rates, like I learned from First American, that's my source. With every half point drop in mortgage rates, about 1.1 million additional American households can qualify to buy an entry level home that's defined as the bottom 25% priced here. That's the number, and I checked their math. So with a full point drop in mortgage rates, then 2.2 million more American households can qualify to buy an entry level home. So we could very well have more buyers here soon, but yeah, when all these homeowners are still locked into three and 4% mortgage rates, I don't know that you're gonna have that many more sellers. So with demand exceeding supply, look for more upward pressure on home prices, especially higher values for those entry level homes that make the best rentals. Now, I'm talking about borrowing right there. And what happens when rates go down for mortgages, when they go down for borrowing? Well, rates on savings accounts, they typically fall as well. And this is a scenario that a lot of people expect. Now, most of my real estate activity is a borrower. I'm always here touting the virtues of how leverage builds wealth, and I know that I don't want to be a saver. So for my more liquid funds, I am a lender, and I'm reliably paid a stable 8% interest rate. And I think I've told you before that for years now, I make loans to real estate companies, and they use my funds to rehab properties and for other operations. Yes, an 8% return that I'm getting, and it's almost like getting an 8% yield on a savings account, and it's not expected to fall when interest rates fall. Well, the primary difference is that I often have to wait a few months if I want my full principal return, but not years. So it's not as rigid as a bank CD, but it's not as liquid as an old fashioned bank savings account. So the private real estate company that I've long made loans to works pretty diligently to maintain asset value and assure optimal returns. They'll tell you that they've never missed making a payment for their private money lending programs. And I did a little research, and I found that their fund utilization is 99.6% that really means that they deploy almost all of the capital if you want, you can potentially get a high yield at the same place I do. Sometimes you can get more than 8% or less than an 8% return, depending on what liquidity terms you want and what other terms you like. The company is Freedom Family Investments. They are real estate centric. If you want, go right ahead and learn more. You can do that by texting FAMILY to 66866. Remember, you're the lender, they're the borrower. And again, for most investment types, I want to be the borrower, but for liquid funds, and the fact that the rate of inflation is now down, an 8% return has a higher real yield now than it did two years ago and one year ago. And again, I'm happy to share it with you. It's Freedom Family Investments. If you want to learn more, do it now while it's on your mind and text FAMILY to 66866.

This week, our guest is a public policy expert that's also involved with a film called Shabbification, the story of rent control. Hey, welcome to GRE Jen Sidorova.

Jen Sidorova 9:16

Good to be here. Thank you for having me.

Keith Weinhold 9:18

Yeah and congrats. Shabbification screening in a lot of places, like the Anthem Film Festival at Freedom Fest last month and this month in New York City, tell us about the film.

Jen Sidorova 9:31

Yeah, so in Shabbification, I follow small property owners like myself who are subject to regulation, and most of them are owners of rent stabilized properties in the city of New York. Right, I follow three specific landlords. I They take me to their homes, they take me to their properties, and they show me around, and you can visually see what regulation has done to their property. Yeah, one of these properties was occupied by a tenant. From 1969 up until 2021 wow. And the landlord was never allowed to be in the property, so obviously no repairs were made. And you could see visually that the apartment was like from the 60s. It's like a museum, but not in a good way, because it's really falling apart, right? So it's like, almost like a Tenement Museum, or, you know, another museum New York City, where we they actually preserve those dates. But in this case, a private landlord actually owns that space, and they're having a difficult time. And so what my specific Shabbification With my film is about is a very specific regulation in New York City that happened in 2019 that applied to rent stabilized properties. What it did that is that it won't allow landlords to put them properties on the market even if they rent stabilized tenant vacates them. They're no longer allowed to put their properties on the market at all. And more than that, they are also not allowed to raise rent, even if they do repairs. So sometimes the cost of repairs in New York City for one bedroom unit can be 200,000 and they're only allowed to raise the rent by like roughly $90 a month, and only for 15 years. So it will take them, like, 200 years to recoup their investment. And obviously that doesn't make any sense, so stories like that is what my short film is about. I myself am a small property owner, so it was very special for me to go and kind of tell the story of people like me.

Keith Weinhold 11:36

That's amazing. So rent stabilization something that New York City has a history of. I sort of think of that as a genteel term or rent control. And a lot of times when your rent can't be raised above a certain amount, you get these long term tenants, in some cases, for decades, and in this case, over 50 years, with this particular tenant in New York City and landlords don't have much of any incentive to improve property when rent control is in place, because they know they cannot get a commensurate bump in rent.

Speaker 1 12:11

rent control and rent stabilization are a form of government enforced limit on the rents. And in New York we have two laws that govern that we have more but the most prominent ones are the rent control law of 1969 and the Rent Stabilization Act of 1974 so back in the day, there were issues with availability of affordable housing, and the government was trying to fix it, and that fix was supposed to be temporary. It was supposed to eventually run out once the tenants who were currently in place at the time in late 60s and 70s, once they move out, landlords were able to put those properties back on the market. And eventually, that's kind of what was going on up until 2019 when housing stability and Tenant Protection Act made it so that the landlords could no longer put their rent stabilized properties on the market anymore. So essentially, all rent stabilization became permanent in the state of New York, and actually, in the just a couple of weeks after my film, in April of 2024 we had another law. It's called Good Cause Eviction, and that one regulates every landlord or enterprise who owns more than 11 units. So once you own 11 units or more, you're subject to regulation. You can no longer evict your tenant without a good cause. And there's a bunch of other rules that apply, including the limit on how much rent you can raise year to year. So yeah, that's certainly what's going on. That's roughly the landscape all regulation in New York.

Keith Weinhold 13:44

Yeah, some of this is really punitive, because if rent control comes into a market, that's one thing sometimes that landlords want to do. They want to sell their property, and in some cases, there's a roadblock against that. You know, Jen, I looked up the definition of Shabbification. I just simply googled the term. Urban Dictionary had one of the first hits, and fortunately, it was a G rated definition there in urban dictionary, it was defined as the opposite of gentrification. So therefore with Shabbification, it's where a neighborhood goes through deterioration and despair. So tell us about some more of those bad cases of deterioration, in despair, in Shabbification. Just how bad does it get?

Speaker 1 14:30

Well, one of the properties that we went to was basically from 1910 it was in Chinatown, and we saw was that the bathtub was in the kitchen in that property, oh my gosh. And I believe that was a way for them to do renovations fast and cheap, like 100 years ago. And because that property falls under rent stabilization, and there's obviously limits on how much rent you can charge. So. Landlords of those properties never really make renovations. Sometimes you could see cases like the director of photography, who was in the film, he lives in a rent sabilized property, and in his case, he has a shower unit in his kitchen as well. Instead of a tub, he has a shower unit. And it kind of is, as he described as one of those telephone booths, like, you know, red telephone booths from London, and then kind of just sits in the kitchen, and you obviously cannot really have company or friends visiting or dinner or anything if you have something like that. But those are the setups that we frequently see. Also a lot of things like uneven floors or just, you know, the property, if it's not being taken care of, there might be, like, a hole in the wall, a hole in the ceiling, or the ceiling is falling out. And those are really graphic images. And we do, we do capture them on camera a lot in Shabbification, and that comes from, kind of, my attraction to urban decay. I do enjoy, you know, touring older buildings, or maybe buildings that are preserved as a ruin, maybe like an old prison and or like an old mental asylum. I do do that a lot. It's just a hobby when I travel. So I was always attracted to that esthetic, and that does show in my film as well. I think I love studying the tragedy because I love studying how the hope died, because it's fascinating to me. It's very specific to usually a town or a city, and then just is so telling, and it's such a teaching moment for us as a society to kind of revisit those stories and figure out why did that hope die. And you can see a lot of that in the film.

Keith Weinhold 16:41

it's a great way to scratch one's itch for I suppose, seeing real life haunted houses, if you will, in Jen's film Shabbification here. Well, Jen, we've been talking about the conditions of the tenants. Why don't we talk more about how the landlord is portrayed in Shabbification.

Speaker 1 17:00

since this is the story, primary of the landlords, not so much on the tenant. You know, normally in this sort of films and these sort of documentaries, the story falls in tenant, because the tenant is the one who is seen as likable and sympathetic person, and that's how, and that's usually a more preferable framing angle. But in my story, my story is a story of a merchant class, or like a more, like a war on the merchant class, the war on landlords. Because in the state of New York, no matter how small or large of a landlord you are, whether you own one unit or 1000 by a lot of people in New York State Legislature as a landlord, you're seen as evil. They think you've done something wrong and you have to be punished. So that's the attitude to a lot of landlords, and although they're not that many small property owners, and sometimes we're not seen as a sympathetic I think this is the story that we need to tell, because some of them are like me. I am an immigrant to this country. Once I got an opportunity, I got my first rental property in Buffalo, New York, and right away, I've been renting out three units and lived in one, and I still do own it. Five years later, I live alongside with my tenants. When I go on vacations, they feed my cat, and when they go travel for work, I do take care of their properties. I water their plants, do things like that. So we do live as a small community, and this is something that a lot of people do in Buffalo, because it's a working class city. It's very hard to be able to afford a single family home. Right away, what you can do is acquire one of these properties, either a two unit, three or four unit, because when you're four units less, then you can do an FHA loan, which I did, and you can put minimum amount down, which I did, and then day one, right away, the income from the tenants was paying off my mortgage, right? That's kind of how I can build generational wealth. But not only that, that's how I can start my journey of home ownership and hopefully building generational wealth in the future, as I've said. And I also have my own passion for buildings, and we did a lot of renovations with my family on that property. So there's a lot of heart and soul in that space. And laws like rent control and Good Cause Eviction, they put a cap on people like me and how much we can grow. Because, as I've mentioned, the Good Cause Eviction in New York, it puts a cap on how far and how big people like me can grow. Because once you have 11 units, that's my cap. Once I have 11 units, I have subject to regulation, and somebody like me cannot afford having a tenant who would just never move out. So yeah, I think these laws, they intended to protect the needy. They intended to protect the families, but they do just the opposite. They. Just limit how much we can grow, and they also just make an environment within our properties very toxic, because tenants now basically have more rights than we do.

Keith Weinhold 20:09

Yeah, well, you're really humanizing the plight of the landlord here, Jen with your four Plex over there. For those that aren't familiar with the geography in western New York in Buffalo, sort of the opposite end of the state where New York City is. And, yeah, I mean, landlords are usually portrayed in media is these people that are sort of greedy and bumbling and they won't fix the broken air conditioner. And, you know, it's, it's unusual to me, Jen, that a lot of people tend to resent landlords, whom are often small business owners, but yet they champion other small business owners. And talk about how, you know, small business ownership is the very heart of America. I'm trying to figure out why that is, you know, maybe some tenants that just don't really understand how things work. Just think, well, why should I have to pay this landlord. All I'm doing is sort of renting air or renting space. But you know, one group of tenants that does not seem to resent landlords, Jen, in my experience, that is people that were previously homeowners and are now tenants. They don't seem to resent landlords, and that's probably because that tenant that has experience being a homeowner. They've seen bills for property tax and property insurance and mortgage principal and mortgage interest and maintenance and repairs. I think that's what makes the difference.

Jen Sidorova 21:33

Yeah, definitely. It's almost like, you know, when I lived with my parents, I didn't pay attention to the bills, like election bills or water bills or anything. But once you start living on your own, you now see how it gets deducted from your account, and then it changes you, adds you towards consumption, changes right? You now turn off the light when you leave and do just small things like that. And that's a similar psychology that works with people who previously owned their own homes. I think what the dynamic that's happening here with tenants is there's always going to be more tenants than landlords, so tenants have a lot more political power, and we see a lot of that in New York. We have a lot of tenant groups, tenant unions, who are very hold a little, a lot of political power. And it's one side of it, another side of it is that a lot of these policies do benefit large landlords, in a sense that once the small property owner is no longer able to keep up the property and they just foreclose on it, a larger landlord can always pick it up. And for large landlords, these costs of litigating with the tenant, or the cost of fixing a unit, or even the cost of having somebody live without paying for a few months, these are just the costs of running business, whereas for somebody like me, it's a significant chunk of my income, right? So at the moment, I think it's like 25% of my income is coming from the rentals, so it's significant. So I guess what I'm trying to say is, on the other side of political power, I just legislators who do not want to see private rentals. You know, small property owners having rentals and Damn, motivations are something else. It's almost like, if there's one conspiracy theory that I believe in, is that one you know, is that there is a war on the merchant class among some legislators, especially in the state of New York, who really just do not want to see small property owners providing housing to the community, and they would rather see it in in the hands of larger developers, and that's just the nature of how political process works, sometimes.

Keith Weinhold 23:45

in the broad business world, large institutional corporations, they're often pro regulation for just the reason you talked about it helps put smaller operators out of business that can't bear the expense of dealing with the regulation. But yeah, your film Shabbification, it helps underscore the fact that rent control, it stifles the free market in the process of price discovery. I mean really that price discoveries, that is the process of supply versus demand, with the referee being the price and finding that right rent amount, and amidst this low housing supply we have, it's just really bad timing for any jurisdiction to enact rent control. Existing landlords stop improving property. Builders stop building new property, and it can make landlords want to sell, like we touched on earlier. But also I'd like to talk about making the other case, the case for rent control. When we come back, we're talking with public policy expert Jan siderova, the maker of a film called shabbatation, where we come back. I'm your host. Keith Weinhold, hey, you can get your mortgage loans at the same place where I get mine at. Ridge lending group NMLS, 42056, they provided our listeners with more loans than any provider in the entire nation because they specialize in income properties, they help you build a long term plan for growing your real estate empire with leverage. You can start your pre qualification and chat with President changley Ridge personally. Start now, while it's on your mind at Ridge lendinggroup.com that's Ridge lendinggroup.com.

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Caeli Ridge 26:32

This is Ridge Lending Group's president, Caeli Ridge. Listen to get rich education with Keith Weinhold, and remember, don't quit your Daydream.

Keith Weinhold 26:52

Welcome back to Get Rich Education. We're talking with a really interesting guest, Jen Sidorova. She's the maker of a new film called Shabbification. This centers on rent control and dilapidated housing conditions. And Jen, you know, I've talked about here on both this episode and another episode a few weeks ago about the deleterious downstream consequences of rent control. It benefits a small group of people in the short term and ends up with deteriorated neighborhoods in a lot of municipalities, but I like to look at things from the other side. What is the case for rent control?

Jen Sidorova 27:27

So I think the the original story behind the rent control in New York City was that in the 70s, it was just really dire situation, kind of what we're going through right now. Right now in New York we have the housing crisis that's the worst in the last 50 years, so basically right around the 70s again. So the current vacancy rate is like 2% and at the same time, we have between 20 to 60,000 rent stabilized rent control units that are vacant because landlords just do not want to put them in more on the market, because talking just in New York City here, yeah, just New York City. And New York City has roughly 1 million of rent stabilized or rent control properties altogether. But yeah, so what is the case for rent control, right? So in my opinion, what is the most problematic saying about rent control or rent stabilization right now, the way the current laws are in New York City is that the property itself is being stabilized or controlled. It's not the person. It doesn't matter how much money you're making. If you're making half a million dollars, you can still live in an apartment that's like 500 $600 a month, right?

Keith Weinhold 28:38

You can have your second lavish vacation home out in the Hamptons, and it doesn't matter.

Jen Sidorova 28:42

Yeah, you can live in Texas for like, nine months out of a year, and come back to New York City for the summer, and then people do that. That's like, not, I'm not making it up. It's a real thing. People are basically hoarding these rent stabilized rent control units, and they just never let them go. And that definitely pushes out young people out of the city. It pushes immigrants out of the city, because people, yeah, all the newcomers. So that's what's going on. So instead of having a property itself being controlled, what could be done? Maybe like a voucher program, maybe like a housing voucher program, but we can only do this if we let the rent control and rent stabilization laws sunset. So once the current tenants move out, that has to be put back on the market, right? So what we could do is the housing voucher program maybe, so that we will always have people in the society that need a little bit of help, but it shouldn't be in such a way that they it's the landlord who is paying for it, right? So if there's a housing voucher, they can live wherever and however that program works in the sense that whoever picks up the rest of the bill, as long as it's not a landlord directly. Yeah, so that's how I see it. And I think just other things that can be done is better zoning regulation that allow more buildings to be built a lot of New York City. Is like a museum, right? We have a lot of historic buildings, a lot of preservation of all the buildings, but we have to reevaluate that, because we don't necessarily have to have the East Village look like a museum if we don't have enough housing, right? So we have to reassess of how much of those policies we still want to hold on to, and then maybe also building codes. Sometimes it's really hard to expand or have more units within the same building. If I have a four unit property and I want to convert it into five units, I am subject to whole different regulation and a whole different bunch of coding, whereas my square footage remains the same. So I think we have to revisit that, because a lot of these new materials that we work with when building are safe right now. So maybe we could let people do more with their properties, and that way we provide more house.

Keith Weinhold 30:50

Yeah. Well, some of this comes down to, how do you get politicians to say no to rent control, which I believe is part of the motivation of your film?

Jen Sidorova 31:01

Right, So the motivation behind myself was that I bought my property in 2019 I went under contract in 2019 and I fully acquired the rights in March of 2020 and between the August of 2019 and 2020 we had a new law passed that was housing stability and Tenant Protection Act 2019 in New York State, and that kind of put a cap on how much I can raise the rent if the tenant remains the same. And at the time when I found that out, I was like, well, that's kind of quirky, but whatever, what can I do? But then a year from that, like in 2021 we had a new mayoral candidate who was a socialist, openly socialist person, and they were advocating for rent control. And at the time, I had an opportunity to go to do a film workshop, and I was thinking, so what is that I really wanted to write film about? And I was this, definitely rent control, because it's relevant for me. It's the story of my people among small property owners, and that's how I did it. And I really want policy action. The idea behind this film, the goal is policy change, right? But this short film is only the beginning of my project, which is exploration of the topic prevent control in the state of New York and everywhere else in the country, and we keep interviewing more people, more experts, and to convert into a larger film, and then hopefully, like a full feature documentary, in order to educate both policymakers and the public about what rent control can do. And eventually, we do hope for policy change in New York, and hopefully, with this film, no more new rent control can happen, or at least when politicians start those bills, they take a look and talk to me and make some changes.

Keith Weinhold 32:52

Well, you're really doing some good work there. I appreciate that. I mean, rent control is analogous to price controls, and we see what happens when there's price controls per se foods like you've seen in other nations in previous decades, and that's how you end up with bread lines, because producers don't want to produce bread when they would have to take a loss and they can't profit on selling that bread. You see a shortage of housing come up just the same, like you do with bread. Well, tell us some more about Buffalo and its market. You had touched on it previously. I think they have lots of older two to four unit buildings there. It sounds like you found one of the four plexes where you could do the owner occupied thing. FHA, three and a half percent down 12 month owner occupancy period. Minimum credit score only needs to be 580 at last check, which is the same way I began with the four Plex building. But yeah, let's learn more about the buffalo housing market. Just a little bit there with rental properties and then the rising tide against Airbnb, like you touched on last month when we met in person.

Jen Sidorova 33:56

Right, so a lot of those properties, a lot of those older homes, were built around the late 1800s beginning or 1900 and that's how they used to build back in the day. Because what would happen is that a large Victorian home with two primarily stories, with two large floors and then maybe an attic and a basement, but one family would live on one floor and another on the second floor. So they were originally built for two homes, but at that time, both families would own that space, right? So there would be co owned by two families. Mine was also an originally a two family home that was converted into a four unit because the previous owners made an addition a lot of young families, that's how they start when they cannot afford a single family home. That's how they start with home ownership and the money that they make for with the rentals. That's how they pay mortgage partially, or maybe that's how they pay the taxes, depending on where you live in the city, sometimes tax burden can alone be very high. So as I've mentioned, we had some mayoral candidates talking about rent control, but recently we started having Airbnbs being regulated in Buffalo. And so there's a few districts in the city where Airbnb is regulated, and my district does not fall into that, and I actually am on four of my units. One is occupied by me. Two are long term tenants, and one which is the newest and the nicest one. I decided to make Airbnb interesting because I did not want to risk, you know, giving it to a long term tenant, because it's just such a nice unit. It's a lot of investment that went in there, so I didn't want it to be provided by somebody who would never leave, because the, you know, environment is just so toxic. You just don't want to take chances, unless you like, really believe in the time. But I don't know people are out here. So I decided to keep it Airbnb. And so because some of the other parts of the city are regulated, and mine is not. I am the beneficiary of that regulation because I get a lot, all of those clients, right, all those Airbnb client so in that sense, funny enough, I am benefiting from some parts of the city being regulated because my my part is not. So all the clients go to me. I do have an Airbnb right now, but we're definitely at the risk of all of the city being regulated. And I think a lot of people complain, right? People who lived in the city for a long time, allegedly, they started complaining to the city council about not recognizing their neighborhood because of Airbnb. But I think what legislators need to understand is that my generation, millennials and Gen Z. That's how we live our lives. We share our assets, right? It's like a big millennial and Gen Z thing that the Airbnb itself is a millennial thing, that this is just will be recognized, that assets like cars and houses, they can be shared, you don't have to have that many of them, even from the unit in the unit that I live in. When I I went out on a trip to Long Island last week, and I airbnbied my own unit. And so that's just how it is. That's just a little lifestyle. And when I see new people who stay in Airbnb on my street, it doesn't bother me. I kind of enjoy a little bit of a variety. But, you know, sometimes it's almost like a culture clash or a generational shift when it comes to thinking about properties and housing ownership. Yeah, that's just my experience.

Keith Weinhold 37:33

Younger generations embrace the sharing economy, and that is quite the mixed use building that you have there with your four Plex in Buffalo, you've got one unit that's a primary residence, a second unit that's a short term rental, and then two long term rental units. There's some diversification of income and utility, for sure. Well, Jen, tell us more about how our audience can connect with you, and especially how they can watch Shabbification.

Jen Sidorova 38:00

So Shabbification, right now is in the film festival circuit, so it's not available to watch yet. Although, if anyone reaches out directly to me through Instagram, my handle is @Jen_Sidorova, which is my first underscore, my last name, anyone can just reach out directly to me and I will send them a screener, and they can watch the full film. And also on my Instagram page, I do put a lot of like other content about buildings, and a lot of like videos so and some, you know, B roll footage that we haven't used in the film, but you can watch it in my Instagram. So yeah, definitely check it out. I also do write for Reason Foundation, and you can find it on my profile, my policy writing work. You can find it at reason.com and it's just under my name, pretty much Instagram and reason website.

Keith Weinhold 38:51

Jen, thanks so much for your Shabbification project. I really think it's going to help people see an important part of American society in a different light. It's been great having you here on the show.

Jen Sidorova 39:02

Thank you so much.

Keith Weinhold 39:09

I talked to Jen some more outside of our interview. Her buffalo four Plex has a high flying 1.04% rent to price ratio. I crunched it out that is super strong for a four unit building, but it is older, and like she said in the interview, she did make some substantial renovation to it, yeah, rent control is a bad plan. You know, on an episode a few weeks ago, I mentioned to you about last month's White House proposal for a sort of rent control light, that was such a bad plan. I told you that it only applies to property owners of 50 plus units, and rent increases were capped at 5% a year. Well, I dug into that release from the White House briefing room, and it's almost like they know it won't work, because. Oh my gosh, this is almost humorous. Economists and any long term thinkers will tell you that rent control doesn't work because you won't get any new builds. Well, the White House release Wood said it won't apply to new builds. It's almost like someone told them, like, hey, this won't work for that reason. So then they wrote that sentence in there, which just undermines so much of it. And economists will also tell you that what doesn't work because owners don't want to improve property well, yet, the White House release actually said it would not apply to substantially renovated property. I mean, my gosh, with these carve outs and all the other caveats that are in it that I described a few weeks ago, this White House rent control planet has no shot of going anywhere. It is lip service virtue signaling, and also would not get past a divided Congress. Really bad plan. In fact, how doomed to failure is wide scale rent control. Well, don't worry, the federal government hasn't regulated rent on private buildings since World War Two. Yeah, it's been 80 years, and it took World War Two scale conditions to bring it. Thanks again to today's guest, Jen Sidorova, with reason.com. Again, like I mentioned earlier, if you want to deploy some of your more liquid funds for a potential 8% return at the same place where I've been getting an 8% return for years, you can make a loan to a long standing real estate company for their property rehabs and other operations. This might really help you out. You can learn more by texting FAMILY to 66866, lots of great shows coming up here at GRE to actionably build your Real Estate Wealth until next week, I'm your host. Keith Weinhold, don't quit your daydream.

Unknown Speaker 41:53

Keith Weinhold 42:21

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Direct download: GREepisode515_.mp3
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Mon, 12 August 2024

Research Director for California YIMBY, professional city planner and author of Arbitrary Lines, Nolan Gray, joins us to discuss how zoning impacts our communities, affordability of retail and commercial real estate.

Zoning laws contributing to the affordable housing crisis and what we can do about it.

Shifting from NIMBY to YIMBY mindset requires understanding benefits of growth.

How zoning laws prevent new development, causing housing shortages and limiting entrepreneurship.

California's statewide legalization of accessory dwelling units can be seen as a successful zoning reform example.

We discuss how cities like Austin and Minneapolis have seen price stabilization by allowing for more mid-rise multi-family housing near transit and job-rich areas.

Learn how to connect with local policymakers and planners to advocate for policy changes that encourage more housing supply.

Resources mentioned:

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GetRichEducation.com/514

You can follow Nolan on X @mnolangray

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513: Finding Hidden Opportunities in Beaten-Down Commercial Real Estate with Dolf de Roos

Complete episode transcript:

Automatically Transcribed With Otter.ai

Keith Weinhold 00:00

Welcome to GRE. I'm your host. Keith Weinhold, if you don't take the right action, inflation will make you poorer. Then the affordable housing crisis keeps your tenant as your tenant is zoning. What's ruining American cities in keeping starter homes unaffordable or just plain extinct in some areas, how do we get more apartments and more density built today on Get Rich Education. When you want the best real estate and finance info, the modern Internet experience limits your free articles access, and it's replete with paywalls and you've got pop ups and push notifications and cookies disclaimers. Ugh. At no other time in history has it been more vital to place nice, clean, free content into your hands that actually adds no hype value to your life. See, this is the golden age of quality newsletters, and I write every word of ours myself. It's got a dash of humor, and it's to the point to get the letter. It couldn't be more simple text, GRE to 66866, and when you start the free newsletter, you'll also get my one hour fast real estate course, completely free. It's called the Don't Quit Your Daydream Letter, and it wires your mind for wealth. Make sure you read it. Text GRE to 66866, text GRE to 66866.

Corey Coates 01:38

You're listening to the show that has created more financial freedom than nearly any show in the world. This is Get Rich Education.

Keith Weinhold 01:54

Welcome to GRE from Calgary, Alberta to Tirana Albania and across 188 nations worldwide. I'm Keith Weinhold, and you are listening to get rich education. When most investors think about inflation, they get it mostly wrong. Their strategy is inflation hedging. And you know, even if you successfully hedge inflation, you are really missing out. You've really got to get fired up about beating inflation. When did you get your first job? Like your first real job in your life? Let's say you did that when you were age 18. Well, that work that you did when you were 18, that created value for somebody else. And you could have done anything with your valuable youth, but instead, you chose to provide value by focusing your time and your energy to sweep floors or enter data into a spreadsheet for somebody else. You were paid for that work that you did. You were paid in dollars, well, if you just tried to store your finite energy that you expended for that employer into dollars, you will lose. Your value will be coerced away from you by your government that just incessantly and relentlessly debases the dollar that you earned at age 18, because they just keep printing more of them. Well, that money printer, which creates the inflation is then an extraction of your resources. Yeah, they extracted your resources, of your time, energy and ingenuity away from you when you were 18, and even the work that you do today, its value will get extracted away from you too. If you say, store dollars under your mattress, if you instead invest it so that its growth rate keeps up with inflation, well, then all you've done is hedge inflation. My point is, get upset about how the system extracts resources from you. And my other point is, don't hedge. Hedge just means that you're treading water. Position yourself to win instead, because you can when you buy income producing property with a loan, you don't just hedge against the inflation. You win three ways at the same time. You probably know that's called the inflation Triple Crown, a concept that I coined. You can watch the three part video series on net, free. It's now easier than ever to access, learn how to actually profit from inflation, not just hedge yourself against it. You can watch that, and it's friction free. There's no email address to leave or anything. Simply watch learn and maybe even be amazed at how you can do this. Those three videos are available. At getricheducation.com/inflationtriplecrown, that's sort of long, so you can also get there with getricheducation.com/itc. Again, that's getricheducation.com/itc. Before we talk with our guests about how zoning is making the affordable housing crisis, even worse, housing values and rents are really looking stable in today's environment. CoreLogic tells us that single family rents are up 3.2% annually. That's the highest rate in a year. And when it comes to prices, the NAR tells us that existing single family home prices hit a record high of $426,900 and that is an all time high. And note that that's existing homes, not new. So median existing homes are basically 427k now. And what does that really mean? Well, that is up 4.1% year over year, the real estate market continues to be it's sort of this tale of the equity rich versus the affordability challenged. Are you equity rich or are you affordability challenged? Well, the more property that you own, the more equity rich you are feeling, that you're going to feel, and oftentimes you're renting out property to the affordably challenged. Of course, the big buzz and a potential really turning point in the economy here or not, it really began about 10 days ago. That's when America reported weak jobs numbers, and that set the unemployment rate from 4.1% up to 4.3%. Citigroup and JP Morgan are now predicting half point Fed rate cuts in both September and November, not just quarter point cuts anymore. I mean, gosh, if there's one thing that we really know, it's that nobody really knows anything. Starting about two years ago, everyone thought a recession was eminent. Bloomberg even said there was a 100% chance that we'd have one by last year. Wrong, wrong, wrong. Everyone thought there would be six or seven Fed rate cuts this year. Wrong, wrong, wrong. You can't even completely count out of rate cut at the next meeting. I mean, sheesh, before that time, we still have two new CPI reports to come out and another jobs report. So, you know, over the long term, this is just how people act. They tend to get ahead of themselves and overreact, and that's really more of a stock market investor sort of thing. And yeah, despite the volatility, you know, us real estate investors are here more chill than Snoop Dogg was at the Olympics. All this fear, what it does is it pushes money into bonds. And when money goes into bonds, it makes mortgage rates go down, and they recently hit 16 month lows near 6.4% and if rates stay low, millions of additional Americans will be able to qualify to buy property that couldn't before, and that could really put more upward pressure on property prices, more than this 4.1% year over year appreciation that we're currently seeing. We know that lots of investors are buying properties like you, getting equity rich and serving the affordability challenge. In fact, 60% of Home Builders indicated that they sold homes to investors from February through April, while 40% reported that they didn't sell to investors. And investors now represent wholly 25% of both new and resale residential transactions and among builders that sold to investors in the past 90 days, 69% of them sold to mom and pop investors. Mom and pop investors, they're loosely defined as those that own one to 10 rental units. They may very well be you. Institutional investors, those that own 10 plus investment properties in this home builders definition here. Well, those institutional investors, they accounted for just 4% of investor sales nationally. So again, more home builders are selling to small real estate investors, those that own one to 10 units. Well, now in almost 10 years of doing the show here, we've never had a full discussion about zoning, and really this is the time. Okay, this ends today because we describe how it's contributing to the affordable housing crisis and what we can do about it. I mean, anymore you really can't find a brand new build 250k starter home anymore, unless maybe it's a tiny home, which then really isn't a full home, and you sacrifice your lifestyle. Well, zoning is a big reason why the Supreme Court decision that deemed zoning constitutional that occurred in 1926. Yes, that's going to turn 100 in the year 2026 that Supreme Court decision that infamously referred to apartments as parasites. Wow. But yet is some zoning good? I mean, say that you and your family have your nice, quiet, single family home on an idyllic half acre lot. Well, if that's the case, should it be allowed that Bitcoin mining facility with its loud cooling fans is built right next to you I'll ask our guest expert about that, and what about say less offensive transgressions, like a condo board that says that you can't rent your unit out. How much zoning is too much or too little? I mean, is someone just being overly sensitive if a duplex is built next to their single family home and they complain about that? So we'll get into all of that. And it really comes down to limiting this McMansionization risk type of nimbyism, not in my backyardism. That's what it is. Again, you can watch the three free videos on how you can substantially and actionably profit from inflation, not hedge, but profit from inflation. It's the inflation triple crown. Be sure to check out those three videos at getricheducation.com/itc. I learned about this week's guest through reason.com we met in person at last month's Freedom Fest in Las Vegas. He is the research director for California Yimby, yes. Yimby, not NIMBY, that is yes in my backyard. And he's a professional city planner. He's the author of the book Arbitrary Lines, how zoning broke the American city and how to fix it. Welcome to GRE. Nolan Gray,

Nolan Gray 12:24

thanks so much, Keith. It's a pleasure to be with you, Nolan,

Keith Weinhold 12:26

you wrote one article for reason.com with such an interesting title, five words, Abolish Zoning-All of it, you're pretty emphatic there at what you'd like to have happen before we discuss that, why don't you tell us in your words what zoning is?

Nolan Gray 12:44

So for the past 100 years, America's cities have been running a grand experiment and how they're governed. Essentially, what we've done, beginning in the 1920s is we said for every single parcel in the city, we're going to assign an allowed use. So most people, if you've played Sim City, you know this might be residential, commercial, industrial, but it goes into so much more detail than that. Different types of residential might be allowed in different parts of the city, commercial, etc, and the vast majority of most American cities, the only form of residential that's allowed is a detached, single family home, right? So that's one half of it, the second half of what zoning is doing, it's placing arbitrary density limits. So the amount of actual housing or amount of floor area that you can build on any particular lot. And it's important to distinguish this from other forms of land use regulation, because in many cases, these rules aren't actually based on any health or safety concerns, but instead a sort of social project of engineering what a correct city should look like. And as I argue in the book and we can discuss over the course of this conversation, is I argue that these rules have actually had incredible harms for our cities and are at the root of our current housing affordability crisis.

Keith Weinhold 13:45

I think zoning initially, it began in New York City about 100 years ago.

Nolan Gray 13:50

Yeah, so New York City adopted one of the first modern zoning ordinances in 1916 a handful of other cities did so as well. So I'm coming to you from California, Berkeley, California also adopted zoning in this year. And essentially, what happened after New York City adopted it was the federal government put together what's called the standard zoning Enabling Act. They mailed that out to every single state in the country and started putting a lot of pressure on states to adopt zoning and allow local governments to adopt zoning. And then, with the rise of the Federal financial system, as part of the New Deal, housing programs. In many cases, local governments were required or strongly, strongly incentivized to adopt the zoning codes to be eligible for certain federal benefits.

Keith Weinhold 14:29

You know, maybe philosophically, one might think, Nolan, well, America stands for freedom, and I should get to do what I want with my plot of land. But if everyone can do whatever they want with their plot of land. I mean, does that mean that my neighbor then could start a sloppy hog farm, or the neighbor on the other side of me could start a battery factory with smoke stacks? So do those sort of things help make the case for zoning?

Nolan Gray 14:57

Yeah, that's a great question, you know. So before the rise of zoning. And we actually had a lot of rules for these classic nuisances, these classic externalities, things like smoke, smells, noise, or even just lots and lots of traffic generation. We had rules to say, Hey, if you want to operate certain types of uses, you need to be in a certain designated area where we're going to tolerate a much higher level of externalities. Zoning does that, but it also does so much more. And it's those other aspects that I think are ill conceived. So for example, of course, we don't want a slaughterhouse next to a single family home, but zoning might also say, Oh, by the way, you're not allowed to have a duplex next to a single family home. You're not allowed to start a home based business. You're not allowed to operate certain commercial uses out of certain strip malls in certain parts of the city. You're not allowed to build anything unless you have a certain amount of number of off street number of off street parking spaces, which can make adaptive reuse of historic properties very difficult. So I think absolutely there's a core of land use regulation that makes sense, that's focused on neighbors, not imposing costs on each other, but our current system goes so much further than that, in many ways, imposes new and unconceived costs, including increasing housing prices, limiting housing options in many of our neighborhoods, making it harder to start a business or to have neighborhoods serving retail in many of our neighborhoods.

Keith Weinhold 16:09

So perhaps zoning has just simply gone too far, and you touched on it earlier. It seems to me that about three quarters of the area of most cities have zoning restricted only to single family home building, for example, and they ban apartments completely. So maybe, as we try to find the right balance of how much zoning is right, tell us more about really the thesis of your book and why we should ban zoning completely.

Nolan Gray 16:38

Of course, we need certain regulations for externalities and nuisances, and to certain extent that can be resolved through litigation, but ideally you look for it and you say, okay, look, there are certain areas where we're going to tolerate certain nuisances and other places where we will not. But beyond that, I think so much of what our land use regulations do is actually causing harm. It's preventing property owners from using their property in ways that are not in any meaningful sense, harmful to their neighbors. It's created this context where now if you want to build just about anything in the typical American city, you have to go through multiple public hearings, you have to do an environmental report in some states, you have to get the permission of local elected officials, you have to undertake all these actions that heavily politicize every new development. And so what we get is so many of our neighborhoods and so many of our cities are locked in amber. And this is partly why, over the last few years, where we've seen a huge amount of demand flow into housing, we've simply had these extreme shortages because markets could not respond with the supply that many of our communities needed. So for example, a starter home in many US cities today might be a townhouse, it might be a two bedroom condo, it might be a single family home on a 2500 square foot lot, but those are precisely the forms of housing that in many cases, our zoning codes make illegal to build. So we're essentially saying if you can't afford at least a certain level of housing, you're not allowed to live in many parts of the community, if in the community altogether, or the same with businesses, if you want to start a small business that might not necessarily have any impact on your neighbors, you might require a special permit. You might require a hearing. You might require to attend a hearing where your competitors are going to show up and oppose your project, purely on a cynical basis. So what it's done is it's created this incredibly disruptive system that's prevented our cities from being entrepreneurial and adaptive, and I think this is the root of a lot of the problems that we're facing today.

Keith Weinhold 18:17

Oh, you really surface some good points there Nolan, when I think of over zoning, and we talk about how a lot of times you can't build anything more than a single family home, that certainly creates a lot of problems. Gentrification is sort of a bad word, kind of sprucing up community so much, raising the value so much, that one problem is that familial bonds decay when children that grew up in, say, Southern California, can no longer afford to live there, so they have to move to lower cost Las Vegas, a four to five hour drive away. Excessive gentrification. You touch that, it also harms mobility. If you want to move from Atlanta to Boston for a tech job but you can't find housing, you're not going to move there, so therefore, talent doesn't get matched up with opportunity.

Nolan Gray 19:07

That's exactly right. I mean, this is a at the national scale. This is an important piece of the puzzle, which is we've made it hardest to actually move to some of our most productive places. So as you mentioned, places like Los Angeles, San Francisco, Boston, New York City, for all their problems, these are incredibly productive places where folks can move to and get high paying jobs and other good educational opportunities, but in many cases, these are the most expensive cities in our country, and it's in no small part because of the many rules and regulations that make it so hard to build housing in those contexts. So you're exactly right. Folks actually turn down higher paying jobs or better opportunities and move to places simply because the housing is more affordable, and you pick up on a really important piece of this, which is in many cases, this is breaking apart families. So a lot of folks who are born and raised in a place like California, their parents might have been able to buy their home in the 70s or 80s or 90s, but they can't afford a home. They have no long term path to actually staying in the community. And so what you're actually seeing is neighborhoods and communities being ripped apart. If the situation in places like California has actually got to be so bad that many of the people who are in a certain sense, beneficiaries of the status quo, maybe they own their home and they're seeing the value go up and up and up. They're also saying, Oh, my children can't afford to live near me. I don't ever get to see my grandkids. The person who serves me at the hospital or at the supermarket can't afford to live here, and we're having trouble keeping folks on. The crisis got to be so bad in certain places like California that we're starting to see tremors of reform. But one of the things I like to say is, if you want to fall into a California style housing crisis, most parts of the country don't need to do anything the rules you have on the books have you moving in that trajectory, right? But if you want to remain a place where we can build more housing, where folks can buy their own home or buy small apartment buildings and start to build wealth, you have to allow for more supply to come online.

Keith Weinhold 20:42

Sure, zoning so that you can't build anything other than single family homes compounds the affordability crisis. There really just isn't any such thing as a 250k starter home anymore, anywhere. You represent California, yimby and you live there in the state where people think of ground zero for excessive regulation and taxation and zoning too. I do read more about some zoning being relaxed in California, allowing for the building of an adu on a property, for example, to help build the density. But before you talk about some of the cracks that are actually starting to help break this down. Can you give any bad examples that are especially problematic there in your home state, Nolan?

Nolan Gray 21:27

For the past 50 or 60 years, California, has been stuck under a NIMBY paradigm, not in my backyard, right? Every single new project is politically contentious, has to undertake an environmental report, has to undergo multiple public reviews, it takes years and years to get a permit, and that's if the housing is legal to build at all. As you know, in so many parts of California, there's very little to no new construction happening, and that's because of the rules on the books that make it so hard to build. To the extent that we allow new housing to be built, we have a whole bunch of mandates that force the housing to be a lot more expensive, and even if all that pencils again, it can take two years to get fully entitled in a permit. And so of course, the only housing that actually ends up getting built is quite expensive. And some folks say, Well, if we allow new housing to be built in California, it's all expensive. Well, yes, if you only allow a trickle of new housing in a very expensive context, of course the new housing is going to be expensive. But if you look to places like Texas and Florida, for example, that build lots and lots of new housing and don't have all of these costly mandates, they actually can build a lot of new housing, and actually can keep prices relatively under control and create that new supply of what we call missing middle, low rise housing. So as you mentioned, the tide, I think, is turning in California. The silver lining of things getting so bad is that the culture is shifting. And what we've seen is the emergence of this new yimby movement, or yes, in my backyard. And these are folks are saying, hey, not only is not building more, not this horrible threat to my community, but it's actually this enriching opportunity. It's good to have a growing, healthy, affordable community where folks are building, folks are able to move to high opportunity jobs, and folks are able to have choice in the neighborhood they live in.

Keith Weinhold 22:55

We're talking about zoning and how that's made the affordable housing crisis worse in the United States with California, yimbys, Nolan, gray Nolan. Tell us more about just the exact sorts of codes that are problematic. We touched on apartment building bans, but I think we're also looking at things like off street parking requirements. You need to have so many off street parking spaces before you can build. Otherwise you can't build. You need to have a minimum lot size of a half acre or a quarter acre in order to build here. So can you talk more specifically about just some of those exact problems on the tactical level that are compounding here?

Nolan Gray 23:34

Yeah, that's exactly right. So where are the housings illegal to build altogether. In many cases, there are a whole bunch of rules that increase the price of that housing. So in urban context, for example, where you might want to be building apartments, many cases, you might have parking requirements that say, Well, you have to have two parking spaces per unit or one parking space per bedroom. In many cases, that's what consumers might demand, and you would have to build that to lease out those units or to sell those condos. But if you're building in a context where you might be near a transit line, or you might be near a university campus, or you might be near a major job center, many of your renters might say, hey, actually, I would prefer to have a more affordable rental or a more affordable condo, because we know that there's no such thing as free parking. You know, if it requires a structure or excavation work, parking can easily add $50,000 to the price of a new unit, and so some consumers might want to pay for that, eat that cost, have a parking space. But many consumers, when we relax these rules and say, Hey, developers, you have the incentives and the local knowledge needed to decide how much parking to build. In many cases, we find that they share parking with other uses, so commercial during the day and residential at night, or they allow renters to opt into parking and to pay for parking, but what you get for many households is a cheaper unit. Now another rule that you mentioned, which is very important, is minimum loss size rules. This is certainly a lot more relevant. More relevant and suburban and rural context. But what we say is, if you want to be able to have a single family home, you have to be able to afford at least a certain amount of land. Now, when if you have a context where you don't have water and sewer installed, and you're operating on septic and well water, you do need larger lots as a matter of public health, but in most suburban context, these rules essentially serve no function except to increase the price of housing and the ability to determine what type of housing can be built where is the ability to determine who gets to live where. So if we say, well, you're not allowed to live in this neighborhood unless you can afford a 10,000 square foot lot or a 20,000 square foot lot, what we're essentially doing in 2024 where land is a major factor in affordability, is we're saying that a whole bunch of middle working class households are not allowed to live in these neighborhoods, or they're not allowed to ever become homeowners and start building wealth in the same way that past generations did. And you look at places like Houston, for example, where they don't have zoning, but they have a lot of zoning-like rules. In 1998 they reduced their minimum lot sizes from 5000 square feet citywide to 1400 square feet citywide. And what this did was this kicked off a townhouse and small lot single family home building boom that has helped to keep cities like Houston affordable a whole new supply of starter homes that again, offered that first step on the ladder of home ownership and wealth building.

Keith Weinhold 25:52

Over the decades, home prices have outpaced incomes. There are a few reasons for that. One of them is inflation, with wages not keeping up with the real rate of inflation, but the other are barriers to development. We're talking more about that with Nolan gray. When we come back, you're listening to Get Rich Education. I'm your host, Keith Weinhold. Hey, you can get your mortgage loans at the same place where I get mine at Ridge Lending Group NMLS, 42056, they provided our listeners with more loans than any provider in the entire nation because they specialize in income properties. They help you build a long term plan for growing your real estate empire with leverage. You can start your pre qualification and chat with President Chaley Ridge personally. Start Now while it's on your mind at ridgelendinggroup.com. That's RidgeLendingGroup.com. Your bank is getting rich off of you. The national average bank account pays less than 1% on your savings. If your money isn't making 4% you're losing your hard earned cash to inflation, let the Liquidity Fund help you put your money to work with minimum risk, your cash generates up to an 8% return with compound interest, year in and year out. Instead of earning less than 1% sitting in your bank account. The minimum investment is just 25k you keep getting paid until you decide you want your money back. Their decade plus track record proves they've always paid their investors 100% in full and on time. And I would know, because I'm an investor too. Earn 8% hundreds of others are text FAMILY to 66866, learn more about Freedom Family Investments, Liquidity Fund, on your journey to financial freedom through passive income. Text, FAMILY to 66866.

Robert Kiyosaki 27:50

This is our Rich Dad, Poor Dad author, Robert Kiyosaki. Listen to Get Rich Education with Keith Weinhold, and the reason I respect Keith, he's a very strong, smart, bright young man.

Keith Weinhold 28:14

Welcome back to Get Rich Education . We're talking with California, yimbys Nolan gray about zoning and how these barriers to development are compounding the affordable housing crisis, and there sure are a number of barriers to multi family production. I really think that's what wild it comes down to. You touched on it earlier, and it's something that I spoke about with our audience a month or two ago. Nolan, and that is, mmm, multi families, missing middle these two to four unit properties, duplexes to fourplexes, where they're only constructing about 40% as many of those here in recent years than they did 20 to 30 years ago. The way I think of it is when you lift barriers to multifamily production, of course, you incentivize builders. If a developer buys an acre of land for, say, $90,000 and they had planned to build one unit on that All right? Well, there's one set of inputs in income that a developer can look at. But instead, if you allow them to go from building one unit on this plot of land to two units on it, it increases their profit potential, and it incentivizes developers from that side as well.

Nolan Gray 29:23

Yeah, absolutely. I mean, so there's been some great work by some friends over at the American Enterprise Institute. What they've done is they've created a nationwide map of mcmassionization risk. So when we have these conversations, we say, hey, let's allow for a range of housing typologies in more neighborhoods, duplexes, triplexes, small, low rise, multi family buildings, townhouses, the types of things that were commonly built in a range of neighborhoods before the rise of zoning. Every city in America has a neighborhood like this. That's a mixture of housing typologies. It would be illegal to build that today, but in many cases, we subject it to preservation requirements because we value it so much that we want to keep it. In any case, what happens when you don't allow that type of gradual incremental infill that keeps our communities affordable. What you get instead is the existing single family homes are converted into much larger, much more expensive single family homes. Now, again, there's nothing wrong with that. Many people might want to buy a smaller 19 fizzies bungalow and turn it into a much larger, 2500 square foot single family home, and God bless them if they want to do it. But what we have is rules on the books that say housing can only get more expensive, it can never get more affordable, or you can never unlock the wealth that's tied up in your land by building an adu or by building a duplex, or by creating more housing options for a range of households. And so that's really, really key. You know, the choice is not between, do we want our communities to change or not? The question is, do we want our communities to remain affordable and maybe change and have some more buildings built and more growth and more development. Or do we want our communities to change in the sense of they become more expensive? Folks retire and they move away, the neighborhood gradually becomes significantly more exclusionary, and young folks who moved grew up in the community can no longer afford to stay. That's the option facing many of our communities. And I think the yimby response to this is more housing construction is good and it's healthy and it's part of a thriving community.

Keith Weinhold 31:02

Yeah, Nolan, when we come at this from the familial perspective, like I brought up earlier, it seems like the more zoning there is, the more it benefits seniors and incumbents, the more it benefits the silent generation, the baby boomer generation, and maybe Gen Xers, and it disadvantages millennials and Gen Zers that really don't have their place yet.

Nolan Gray 31:24

Yeah, you know, it's tough. I would say it even hurts seniors, right? I mean, if they want their young adult children to be able to live near them, or, many cases, seniors like the option to be able to build an accessory dwelling unit in their backyard and maybe rent that out to friends or family, or maybe even you move into the adu and allow young adult children to move into the primary residence, or even just rent it out and have an additional source of income to supplement fixed incomes. There's reasons why folks, I think, at all different stages of their life, benefit for more flexibility in the rules that govern what can be built.

Keith Weinhold 31:52

Psychologically, how do we turn one's mindset from a NIMBY mindset to a yimby mindset? I mean, if someone's got their single family ranch home that they want to live in in their senior years, and they want to see its value appreciate, so they don't want duplexes and fourplexes built next to them, rather than them saying no to turn them into saying yes. I mean, how do you get those people to understand that? Well, like this is the way for the next generation, for you to be able to live near your children and grandchildren?

Nolan Gray 32:21

Yeah, that's a great point. You know, I think when you go to these public hearings around projects, you hear relentlessly about the cost of new development, right? Folks speculating about traffic and runoff and other factors parking. We get that perspective. We get bombarded with that perspective. But what we don't get is the alternative perspective of the benefits of a community, remaining relatively affordable, remaining a place where teachers and nurses and firefighters can still afford to be able to own a home and live places, allowing for the kids who grew up in a neighborhood or a city to remain there. And in fact, even just the selfish appeal to the homeowner, there's not actually any evidence that new development happening around you necessarily reduces the price of your single family home, and in some cases, it could actually signal to the market, hey, there's actually development potential on this so when you do decide to maybe sell and move on, your land is potentially going to be more valuable because it has more development potential than it might under a strict exclusionary zoning scenario. So you know, of course, you try to make the altruistic case to people. Hey, think about future generations. Think about folks who maybe want to move to this community or stay in this community, but aren't going to be able to if we don't build housing. But even so, I think there's selfish reasons. If you want to have somebody who's going to check you out at the supermarket or serve you at a restaurant or be a home care nurse, eventually you got to have housing for folks like that. In many cases, new development happening around you is going to increase your land value. Now I would just try the rage of appeals and work people through it. And in many cases, you know, I think people will understand, yeah, okay, I understand we got to have some growth. They might have a perspective on what it should look like, and that's okay. But as long as we can get some consensus that we got to have some growth to accommodate demand the form it takes, we can have a healthy discussion over.

Keith Weinhold 33:57

Yeah, real community is the integration of all different types of people, and not school teachers living an hour away where they need to make a two hour round trip drive every day. Well, Nolan, as we're winding down here, can you give us any more successful zoning reform examples that maybe other communities can look to you touched on the success stories in Houston a bit. Are there some other ones?

Nolan Gray 34:21

Absolutely. Yeah. So one of the most successful things we've done in California has been statewide legalization of accessory dwelling units. Yeah, that's been key. That started in 2017 and that took a lot of legislation to get us to a place where we are today, but that's resulted in something like 80,00 ADU's permitted, since 2017. That's powerful stuff, right? That's 80,000 households that might have a home, or might be able to rent out a unit to young adult child or an aging parent. Really, really powerful. So I would suggest that folks look into that. That's the lowest of the low hanging fruit. Empower homeowners to add additional units to their properties, and by the way, we also allow you use to be added to multifamily properties, and we're seeing a lot of that happen as well. At other contexts, many cities, dozens of cities across the country. Have removed their minimum parking requirements, acknowledging that, hey, this is a huge cost that we're imposing on projects, developers who are close to consumers, who have, they have the incentives and local knowledge to get this question right. Let them decide. So that's been, I think, a big success. You know, certain cities like Austin and Minneapolis, for example, they've actually sort of kept their markets back under control amid all the chaos of the pandemic real estate market fluctuations by allowing for a lot more mid rise multi family on their commercial corridors and in Job rich areas and in places near transit, that's where we have a huge shortage, is these studios and one bedrooms. So young professionals who, if they can't find that unit, they're going to go bid up the price of a two or three bedroom unit, they're going to roommate up and be living in potentially overcrowded conditions. So Austin, Minneapolis, we, relative to peers, they built a lot of housing and have seen prices stabilize as a result. So there's a lot of different success stories, you know, I would say, if you're at all interested in this, talk to your neighbors about this issue. See what sorts of solutions might make sense for your community. You know, in a suburban or a rural community, ADUs or minimum loss size reform might make sense. And an urban community, removing your parking mandates, allowing for more multifamily, allowing for missing middle, make more sense.

Keith Weinhold 36:06

There sure are some encouraging signs. There was there any last thing that a person should know, especially a real estate investor type audience that's interested in buying a property and renting it out to a tenant for the production of income? Is there anything that our group really ought to know about zoning and the direction that things are moving, what to look for and what to be careful of?

Nolan Gray 36:28

Well, as your audience probably knows, you know that first essential step for your mom and pop local real estate investor is often a duplex, a triplex, a four Plex, historically, that was an absolutely essential source of middle class wealth building. Yeah, right. And you can see these in so many historic neighborhoods. And to the extent that we've made those exact typologies so incredibly hard to build, we've cut off this very valuable source of democratic, decentralized wealth building that we need to actually encourage as real estate investors and professionals, in many cases, you're an authority figure with your local policymakers and your local planners, and you can say to them, Hey, here's my perspective on what's happening in the market. You know, we have a shortage of a certain type of small scale multifamily or making this case. You know, I talked to a lot of elected officials, and when I say starter home, I think they still think of the bungalow on the 5000 square foot lot with the two car garage. But a starter home in 2024 might be a townhouse, two bedroom condo, a small lot, single family home. These are the types of stories that real estate investors and professionals are trusted advocates on, and you can make that case and explain to local policymakers. Hey, here's the change that we need or explaining. Hey, I wanted to add an additional unit to a property that I own, or I wanted to redevelop a property I own to add a lot more housing. And these were the barriers that I faced that's incredibly valuable information for your local policymakers and planners. And I would say, you know, look around many US, cities and states now have very active yimby or, Yes, in my backyard groups. Go connect up with them. You could be a valuable, trusted expert for them, somebody that they can learn more about the situation with real estate markets, and they can be more effective advocates for policy that I think a lot of us would like to see.

Keith Weinhold 37:58

And when it comes to changing NIMBY people to yimby people, and we look at esthetics and adu in the back, that really doesn't change aesthetics on the street front. And I've seen very smart, careful designs of duplexes, triplexes and fourplexes that really look just like single family homes from the Street View level. So there really are some ways around this. You've given us some really good ideas today. Nolan, hey, well, someone wants to learn more about you and your work and zoning. What's the best way for them to do that?

Nolan Gray 38:30

Well, I'm on the platform formerly known as Twitter. I'm @mnolangray, M, N, O, L, E, N, G, R, A, y, so feel free to find me there and reach out. And I have a book Arbitrary Lines, how zoning broke the American city and how to fix it. Check that out. If you're at all interested in this, always reach out. Love to hear from folks. Thanks so much for having me, by the way.

Keith Weinhold 38:50

All right, well, I hope our audience didn't zone out. It's been great. Chat with you. Nolan, thanks so much for coming on to the show. Yeah, a thought provoking discussion with California yimbys Nolan Gray there it's essentially illegal to build affordable housing in a lot of areas with the way that these zoning laws are written, allowing for more dense building that can limit this ugly urban sprawl, and this makes me think about an Instagram account that I follow. It's called how cars ruined our cities, or some names similar to that. It shows, for example, a picture of how a highway interchange in sprawling Houston has an area so large that you could fit an entire Italian town inside of it. And these sprawl problems compound when a lot size must be, say, at least a quarter acre or a half acre. The tide is turning toward allowing more dense building in some places like we touched on, but it's too bad that it took a. Visible housing crisis to make this happen. I mean, visible like more homeless people out on the street. It took that almost for municipalities to start doing something about all of this. Our guest has quite a following on X. Again, you can find his handle there @mnolangray on X and the image on his account cover it shows someone holding up a sign that reads, zoning kills dreams. Hmm, big thanks to the terrific Nolan gray today until next Monday, when I'll be back here to help you actionably build your Real Estate Wealth. I'm Keith Weinhold. Don't quit your Daydream.

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Mon, 5 August 2024

The King of Commercial Real Estate joins us to discuss office, hotels, apartments, retail, industrial and warehouse real estate.

Many office building values are down 80%+. Is it headed straight to purgatory? According to Moody’s, the national office vacancy rate is 20%.

Offices have the double-whammy of higher interest rates and lower demand.

Learn how feasible office to residential conversions are.

For two years now, momentum has swung from Airbnbs to hotels.

More apartment syndications will blow up from forthcoming interest rate resets.

Commercial real estate often has higher prices than residential. Learn from our guest, Dolf de Roos, on creative ways to make low down payments.

Learn how to vet commercial tenants.

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512: Rent Control is a Bad Plan, Own Land in a New Micronation with Liberland President Vit Jedlicka

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Keith Weinhold 00:00:01 Welcome to GRE! I'm your host, Keith Weinhold. There are many commercial real estate sectors. Large apartments, office, hotel, hospitality, retail, warehouse, industrial. Well, what's thriving? What's been beaten up so bad and is never coming back? And what's in a dip that's ripe for opportunity? Also creative deal structuring if you don't have a lot of money. It's the debut of the King of Commercial real estate here today and get rich education. When you want the best real estate and finance info, the modern internet experience limits your free articles access, and it's replete with paywalls. And you've got pop ups and push notifications and cookies. Disclaimers are at no other time in history has it been more vital to place nice, clean, free content into your hands that actually adds no hype value to your life? See, this is the golden age of quality newsletters, and I write every word of ours myself. It's got a dash of humor and it's to the point to get the letter. It couldn't be more simple.

Keith Weinhold 00:01:13 Text gray to 66866. And when you start the free newsletter, you'll also get my one hour fast real estate course completely free. It's called the Don't Quit Your Daydream letter and it wires your mind for wealth. Make sure you read it. Text gray to 66866. Text gray 266866.

Corey Coates 00:01:41 You're listening to the show that has created more financial freedom than nearly any show in the world. This is get rich education.

Keith Weinhold 00:01:58 What does your read? From Tuscarora, Pennsylvania, to Tuscaloosa, Alabama, and across 188 nations worldwide. I'm Keith Whitehill, and you're listening to get Rich education. Today's guest, the king of commercial real estate, is talented, dynamic, global, articulate, has both a wide range of knowledge and an expansive palette of creative strategies in both commercial and residential, where you can buy with little out of pocket. And he's going to share that with us today. That's coming up here shortly. Now, when we think about residential real estate, of course, that is a really wide world in itself.

Keith Weinhold 00:02:38 From condos to single family homes to tiny studio apartments. You could also divide it into short term and mid-term and long term rentals. And then you could also parse it by all of the geographic markets. Well, of course, the commercial real estate world has a ton of segments too, one of which is office, which I want to talk about because it's probably been the most downtrodden and beleaguered since 2020. But there are still some things that are misunderstood within office and even dividing things up that much. Let's take care not to broad brush stroke office real estate itself some smaller segments of office might be in decent shape today. Other office segments are in real trouble. Like we're talking about tall concrete and glass, office towers and a lot of business parks, too. Yeah, business park, sort of a campus like areas, like maybe what the comedy The Office had. He had Dunder Mifflin was in a business park.

Steve Carell 00:03:43 I'm just helping you invest in your future, my friend.

Oscar Nunez 00:03:46 It sounds like a get rich quick scheme.

Steve Carell 00:03:48 Yes. Thank you. You will get rich quick. We all will.

Keith Weinhold 00:03:52 yeah. I guess that's what Steve Carell's character. What Michael Scott from The Office says about prudent investing. Let's talk about office real estate and how that intersects with the housing market. And really a lot of this comes down to the office vacancy rate. Moody's tells us that 1 in 5 office spaces in this economy are empty. And that is the highest ever. And a lot of people think that it's going to go higher right now. Dayton, Ohio is the highest in the nation at 28%. These are office vacancy rates. Charleston, West Virginia's 27. Tulsa, Oklahoma 26. And Houston, Dallas and Austin are all in the top ten for the worst office vacancy rates. Now, a lot of city officials, they want to turn that into housing, and they want government funding in order to make that transition happen from office to residential. This is most attractive to cities if you can partially convert a building to have housing on upper floors, and then you just maintain some offices on lower floors and see that mix right there, that makes for a vibrant, lively downtown community, because that way you don't have downtowns that go quiet at 5:00.

Keith Weinhold 00:05:10 But a lot of these renovations, they just aren't that feasible. They call them ritzy conversions. That's kind of what this is known as. So office to residential. I mean that means you often got to deal with huge floor plates, overhaul mechanical systems, and you've even got to consider things like the fact that windows don't open in office buildings. And they've often got to for resin conversions. Well, with this prolonged high vacancy in offices. Well, where do these people that would have been in offices spend their time instead? Well, of course at home in their residential real estate. And oftentimes it is a one for one. You have one less person occupying an office for lots of that waking day, and that means one more person occupying their home. Well, that's one reason that people are increasingly willing to spend and pay more for homes because they're spending more time than ever there. And ever since the work from home movement and zoom from home movement, if you will, since that became commonplace for urban workers coming off the pandemic, you soon saw the hashtag auto.

Keith Weinhold 00:06:27 The return to office movement that began is where you've got to come into the office 2 to 3 days a week, and then a lot of companies try to ramp it up to 4 to 5 days per week. Some companies even said, yeah, come on in here. You've got to in order to be eligible for promotions. Well, a lot of people don't want to come into the office. We found that out now, especially younger workers. In fact. Did you ever hear of the term coffee bagging? Yes. Some workers are trying to game the system. Coffee bagging. That is the art of returning to the office to a quick hit. Just have a quick hit. You only badge in, get coffee, chat and peace out of there. Well, more people are doing this or they're staying at home than what you're often led to believe. So despite the RTL movement that you hear about the share of employed persons that work their average day from home, last year it rose to 35%, up from 34%, and that's per the BLS.

Keith Weinhold 00:07:31 Well, that's a little interesting to know, but it all comes down to that office vacancy rate, which is, like I said, a stubbornly high all time record 20% nationally, and it could go higher. If you're going to invest in office real estate today, I mean, you've really got to have some insider knowledge and invest smart.

Donald Trump 00:07:55 Did you use the word smart? so you said you went to Delaware State, but you forgot the name of your college. You didn't go to Delaware State. You graduated either the lowest or almost the lowest in your class. Don't ever use the word smart with me. Don't ever use that word. Oh, give me a break. Because you know what? There's nothing smart about you, Joe.

Keith Weinhold 00:08:16 oh, dear. Oh, one of those two men is our current president, and the other could be our next president. Oh, well, love him or hate him, I guess the Trump. Hey, he is the Art of the deal author. And when you think about the Trump name, you should think about seeing those letters on tall office buildings in hotels coming up on the show here in future weeks.

Keith Weinhold 00:08:39 We are stacked with great guests an NFL All-Pro, the president of the Mississippi Institute, the return of the tax free wealth author Tom Wheelwright, and also the incomparable financial firepower of Garrett Gunderson. That's all coming up here in future shows. Let's talk to the king of commercial real estate. This week's guest is a former high tech engineer turned real estate mogul and New York Times best selling author of the book Real Estate Riches. He is globally renowned for his ginormous real estate ventures and his mentorship. But his approach to real estate isn't just transactional, it's about strategic creativity and leveraging property investment for financial independence. Known as the King of commercial real estate. Hey, welcome here for your great debut. Joining us from Malta today. It stopped the roost.

Dolf de Roos 00:09:38 Thank you very much. It's my absolute pleasure to be here.

Keith Weinhold 00:09:41 Oh it's great to finally speak here on the show. And I know that a good segment of our international audience has been anticipating this episode. And often we think about commercial real estate today. Problems come to mind immediately, like the large apartment space with interest rates blowing things up over there, and then the office sector, which just seems to be dying and never coming back.

Keith Weinhold 00:10:03 So first of all, why don't you give us an overview on how various commercial sectors are doing today?

Dolf de Roos 00:10:09 There's always the things that you see on the surface, what you read in the newspapers and what you lead yourself to believe just on the sheer balance of probability. And then there's the reality of what is truly going on. And I'm always amused at the chasm between them. There's a big difference. And in fact, your ability to do well in real estate is largely dependent on the arbitrage between the markets perception of where things are at and the reality. Now, if we all follow the trends, you know, real estate doesn't go up linearly as mathematicians would say. It goes up in fits and starts with each peak a bit higher than the previous peak and each trough a bit higher than the previous trough. But in addition to that, real estate markets always overshoot so that when things are going well, when the public perception is that things are going well, Interest rates are low. There's good capital growth.

Dolf de Roos 00:10:59 People think it's going to go on forever. It will never end and they pay way too much for properties. We have the greater fool theory where no matter how big a fool you are to pay too much for a property, it doesn't matter, because next year they'll be an even bigger fool to pay even more for it. So everyone jumps into the market, overshoots, and then there's a strong correction. A bit like the 2008 GFC. It was on the cards. It was. The writing was on the wall, as they say, and then it corrects. But instead of correcting back to where it should be, it overshoots on the downside as well. And in Phoenix, where I'm based, at one stage we had 90,000 homes into foreclosure simultaneously, and they were selling them on the courthouse steps at the rate of one every 56 seconds for initially 20,020 5000, and people thought, why are these fools buying these properties? The market's crashed. It will never recover. And yet when you live long enough, which unfortunately I have to say, I've done now like I've been around a while, I've seen a few cycles.

Dolf de Roos 00:11:59 No, I'm serious though, Keith, because when you experience your first downturn, you think it's the end of the world. But when you've been through three and you've seen that despite all the bad press and saying it's doomsday to never recover, it not only recovers, but it actually far exceeds where it was before it crashed last time, then you know that the time to take action is when everyone else is panicking. You have to be countercyclical when everyone else is jumping on the bandwagon and paying too much for properties. That's when you should get on a plane and read some good books on a beach somewhere, preferably in a foreign location. Why a foreign location and being disloyal to the home country? Note just explore something. Expand your mind. And you know, I know I'm waving around a bit from topic to topic, but one of the great things about reading books on foreign beaches is that you get to see different ideas of real estate that you can bring back home. So when you bring back these ideas that can help correct the market, then you almost you don't wish for a crash, but you think when it happens, well, there's got to be some good aspect to this and you can actually find some stunning deals from people who are too scared to think it might recover well.

Keith Weinhold 00:13:05 So those places where you might find stunning deals are in some of those commercial real estate sectors that are suffering today. Tell us a bit more about some of those sectors in their health. We're talking about five plus in the department's office, hotel, hospitality, retail, warehouse, industrial. Let us know what's going on with some of those sectors.

Dolf de Roos 00:13:27 In a state of flux. And it's a very good question. Let's talk about hotels for a moment. When the pandemic set in, we were all told to do this thing called to be socially distant. We've almost blissfully forgotten that expression. But social distancing was the thing. So hotels fell out of favor because you're in a foyer with a concierge and a reception area and hundreds of other hotel guests checking in and checking out. So Airbnbs became very popular and the value of hotels plummeted. Many couldn't meet their mortgage obligations because their revenue from room sales did not cover their own loan commitments, so they were being sold off at ridiculously cheap prices. I know of one hotel in the Atlanta area, admittedly a very old hotel.

Dolf de Roos 00:14:09 It was converted into a storage facility. When you think about it, hotels are all compartmentalized and have good little cubicles for story. Yeah, and Airbnbs took off. And we all know people, and people wrote books about it and had courses on it. I know in Phoenix, one statistic in a 12 month period from July 22nd to July 23rd, the availability of Airbnb's went up by 23% and all would have been good and well if demand had kept on escalating. But as the pandemic sort of wound down and people realized they did need to be socially distant anymore. And what's more, when you went to an Airbnb, what you found is that there was a long laundry list of items you had to do, but the sheets through the washing machine no more than one bed at a time. Well, four beds worth of sheets is going to take you three hours and do this and do that. People thought hotels are much easier, so there was a massive swing by tenants of rooms back to hotels, and the value of hotels went back up.

Dolf de Roos 00:15:04 And in the meantime, the value of houses used as Airbnb's, it sort of peaked a bit and it's going down rapidly. How far it will go down? I'm not so sure. So my point is, with hotels in a very short period of time, like three years, the values plummeted and then they came back up again. Office space is suffering a bit of a longer cycle downturn. It's fair to say, I think, that offices are in a very dire straits. Something like $785 billion of mortgages secured against commercial office space that is coming up for renewal, and there's not enough revenue to cover them. There is a pair of hotels on Union Square in San Francisco, for instance, the park Renaissance and the Renaissance itself. They had $745 million of mortgage funding, and the operators of those hotels handed the keys back to the bank and said, we can't make this cash flow. There's a lot of commercial space that is being sold off a ridiculously cheap prices. So there are two ways of looking at this, Keith.

Dolf de Roos 00:16:02 One is if you happen to own office space right now, unless it's boutique space, I've got quite a bit of office space, but it's a very much a boutique classification, and they'll always be demand for boutique office space from unique operators like interior decorators and people like that. But for the general concrete and glass office towers, demand for that has plummeted. The values have gone down and I know of one building in Chicago. It's sold for 315 million. It's on the market at 60 and dropping, and there's not a buyer in sight. And you might say, well, it's got to be a bargain. But no. Here's the challenge. With commercial real estate. Unlike residential, residential is valued on the basis of comps. We all know that if you have a four bedroom, three bathroom home, certain age, certain size, certain condition in a certain suburb, then and if it's sold for, say, $480,000, then a similar sized and aged house up the road, down the street around the corner is going to sell for about the same amount.

Dolf de Roos 00:17:02 Whether it's tenanted or not, that doesn't even matter. But when it comes to commercial real estate, the value of a commercial property is literally a multiple of its rental income. Technically, is the rental income divided by the cap rate? Which cap rate is short for capitalization rate? It literally means the rate at which you capitalize the rental to arrive at the value. So if we can figure out a way of doubling the rental, then we've doubled the value. And by the same token, of course, if you lose the tenant and you have your rental, then you have the value. And that's why the value of so many of these commercial office buildings has plummeted, because there are no tenants for them.

Keith Weinhold 00:17:40 Yeah, well, there's a lot there. And back to the Airbnb thing. Yeah. About two years ago, there seemed to be this well well-documented Airbnb bust. And my gosh, I personally had awful Airbnb experiences recently, including checking into an Airbnb where it hadn't been turned over, it hadn't been cleaned yet, and that I can never unsee what I saw.

Keith Weinhold 00:18:00 Then I had to stay there. That was really rough. I think what you're getting at here is once you hit a bottom, that's where the opportunity is. So there are going to be some of those opportunities somewhere in the commercial real estate sector, commercial real estate syndicators, many of them imploded from high rates. So when we talk about finding the bottom link with these large apartment buildings, how many more apartment syndicator implosions do we expect from the higher mortgage rates?

Dolf de Roos 00:18:27 Many. I'm indifferent to it. I'm not saying I don't have sympathy for the people who own them, and I'm not gleeful for those who buy a bargain. But here's why I'm indifferent. I think it's fair to say that I've made most of my money in real estate by finding either vacant or semi vacant buildings, and that goes against the grain. Most people think they need to look for a building with a good tenant, because it's the tenant that pays the rent, and that's not incorrect. That's accurate. And then if you've got a building that you buy and say 8% return and your mortgage interest is 7%, hopefully that 1% margin covers your property taxes and your insurance and your maintenance.

Dolf de Roos 00:19:05 And then you just wait for time to do this thing where slowly, over time, the rents creep up and the property value creeps up. I don't have the luxury of waiting that long, and I never had the cash to buy properties like that, so I literally sought out semi vacant or even vacant buildings. Now, I didn't buy them because if I bought a vacant building, I still have to pay property tax and insurance. But what I would do before buying it is see if I can find a tenant, and I can give you a specific example. I came across a vacant building that was a funeral parlor, and most people don't like to think of what goes on in a funeral parlor. But they have these stainless steel trays where they put the product of their business on, and they insert these hollow stainless steel tubes and suck up the blood and replace it with formaldehyde and all kinds of things we don't want to think about.

Keith Weinhold 00:19:52 That's even worse than my Airbnb experience.

Dolf de Roos 00:19:55 No one knew what to do with it.

Dolf de Roos 00:19:57 So I found it. And it was being sold for a song because it was vacant. And what I did is I employed someone at the then going hourly rate of $8 an hour to phone every funeral director, going further and further from this place until she found someone who said, oh my gosh, I've always wanted to operate there. And I was just open and honest. And I said, well, there's a funeral parlour premise for sale. Go and check it out if you want to buy it, buy it. Why would I offer it to him, Keith, when I really wanted to buy it? Because the last thing I want is a tenant to be gracious. The fact that the only reason he's paying me rent is that I'd beat him to it. But I knew that in all probability, he didn't want to buy real estate. That's not his gig. And he said, no, I don't have the money or the inclination he had to look at. He said, listen, I love it.

Dolf de Roos 00:20:40 I want to operate there. What would it take? And I said, well, if you're willing to sign up a heads of agreement, an alloy, we're subject to me buying it. You will become the tenant, then I'll have a crack at buying it. And his response was, were not so fast, I need you. I'll only do it if you give me a long term lease. Well, that's exactly what I want. So I'd found a tenant by adding the tenant to this otherwise vacant building. The value of it doubled. And when I went to the bank to apply for a mortgage, they said, well, we're only going to give you 50%. Well, guess what? 50% of double the value was the purchase price. They lent me all but the last $10,000 to buy that property. So the magic sauce here is finding the tenant. Could anyone else have gone through at the time? This is before the internet, the Yellow pages and phoned every funeral director going for. Of course they could, but no one thought of doing it.

Dolf de Roos 00:21:33 And that comes to part of what you had in your title, that this is all about creative real estate. The thing I love about real estate is it's about the only investment vehicle where you can actually use your creativity. I mean, if you're a really creative person and you buy a portfolio of stock, IBM stock and Microsoft and biotech, what.

Keith Weinhold 00:21:53 Can you do to improve it?

Dolf de Roos 00:21:54 Can you deploy your creativity? How can you deploy what you've seen in your travels to make your stock portfolio worth more? Zero. Absolutely nothing. Not with stocks, not with bonds, not with futures. Options, certificates of deposit, Treasury bills, nothing. But with real estate, the sky's the limit, I love that.

Keith Weinhold 00:22:13 Well, you talked about getting into commercial real estate sectors with little or none of your own money. That's part of the creativity. A lot of our audience is interested in investing in residential property, a single family home. You might still be able to get one for 150 K now, 20 to 25% down payment on that 30 K plus.

Keith Weinhold 00:22:34 I mean, that's still pretty manageable for a lot of people, but many are somewhat intimidated by commercial real estate. I think one of the first things they think about is how do I come up with the money? So we talk about creativity in funding that down payment. Tell us more about some good strategies for doing that, and kind of overcoming that daunting feeling of higher commercial real estate prices.

Dolf de Roos 00:22:52 You're absolutely right. Most people think commercial real estate is more expensive, where you might be able to buy a home in a cheaper market, a cheaper price point at one 20,000, say the commercial property is going to be half a million, or if homes are $1 million and a fancy suburb and the commercial properties at 3 million. That's true, but not all properties are like that. My smallest commercial building was a little corner shop. It was a wet fish supply shop, so they sold fish but not cooked fish. And it was a horrible looking thing. But I paid all of $79,000 for it and it's been rented on a full commercial lease from the day I bought it, so it needn't be liked.

Dolf de Roos 00:23:31 In fact, we tend to only notice the big ones for the For Sale sign. You're in the downtown of some city and you see a big one of the big firms, CB Richard Ellis or Jones Lang LaSalle or something for lease or for sale sign, that's for sure. And you don't tend to notice the small ones. The trick in finding good value real estate. Be it commercial or residential, again, has to do with the fact that it's not an automated market like the stock market. You buy stocks through computers on a share market. Everyone pays the same price. But when it comes to real estate, the seller may choose to go through a real estate agency. It might be a national one, and then it's vetted by many agents. But we have a thing known as fizzbuzz or for sale by owner. And why would a seller choose to circumvent a real estate agent? Well, probably because he's hoping to save on the 6% commission. By the way, that's the highest in the world.

Dolf de Roos 00:24:21 And the rest of the orders? 2 or 1 and a half or 3%, it soon to be lowered in the States. But even so, they want to save on that commission and more sinisterly. Perhaps some of them think, why should I entrust my property, the sale of my property to some snooty, nosed 22 year old kid just out of school who doesn't even live in the suburb. I have lived here for 59 years or whatever, he says. And I know what it's worth. And in pricing it, he's either way too high or way too low. Now, if he's way too high, you and I aren't going to buy it because it's just way too high. We know that. But what if it's 100,000 below market value? It happens every day of the week, and if we stumble across one of those, then we might just make 100,000 that day. Not in terms of cash, not in terms of folding hard cash, but in terms of equity. And we could sell it the next day for a hundred thousand more.

Dolf de Roos 00:25:08 But we don't because we want to invest in it. And these things are real key. These happen. That's why I encourage people don't take the same route home from work every day. If you've finished work, get in your car, take a different route, keep your eyes peeled, look for visible signs of a sale by owner, or look for abandoned properties, ones where the grass is a bit high in this litter blown up against the fence and the windows are a bit grimy, and then do some research to find out who owns it.

Keith Weinhold 00:25:34 Sometimes the greater the crisis, the greater the opportunity. But often we talk about, say, if one has overcome the money in the down payment thing, you know, in effect, when we go ahead and get a loan, whatever sector we're investing in, the bank underwrites either us or the bank underwrites the property. But in a sense, us as the investor is we're sort of underwriting the tenant that's in there. Now, when we buy a residential building, you know, we can look at the tennis credit scores and their work history.

Keith Weinhold 00:26:00 You know, we know that the residential tenant is going to pay us to live there. We have a good sense of faith about that. But when it comes to commercial real estate investing, say, I want to buy a plaza with eight businesses in it. I think a lot of investors feel overwhelmed because they're like, oh my gosh, like, how do I study the validity of these eight businesses? And how do I know that they're going to be solvent and sustainable going forward? And do I need to understand all this, or can you speak to that and help break that down for us a bit? Basically the investor underwriting the tenant.

Dolf de Roos 00:26:31 That's all true. And yet there isn't that much to learn. Because if we take your imaginary shopping plaza with eight tenants. Yeah, I think we'd all agree that if one of those tenants was a Gloria Bean coffee and tea or whatever it's called, or Seattle's Best or Peet's Coffee, not to mention Starbucks, that's a global change, but one of those lesser brands.

Dolf de Roos 00:26:51 I think we would be pretty comfortable that they can pay the rent every month. And similarly, the bank underwriting that loan was like, well, a Peet's Coffee or Gloria, that they're a good tenant And, you know, just to name others at random rosters for less, that's a nationwide chain store. I think if we had them as a tenant, that would all go well. And you might get a couple of independents, but they would have a track record. They've leased those same premises for the previous eight years, and they moved there from other premises, which ended up being too small for them. That means they're expanding where they were for 12 years, things like that. Give a picture to any novice in this game to say, wow, they're probably going to be here for the long haul. And beyond that, what happens when you develop the skills to attract new tenants? You don't worry about that even because you know that when you lose a tenant, it's easy to get one lesson.

Dolf de Roos 00:27:42 I've got 101 ways of getting tenants for buildings, and I'm blown away that people don't deploy even one of them. And I'll give you an example from last week. I was with a client in the UK in Bournemouth, which is way in the south of the country, and we were looking at a commercial office building there and it had been vacant for 18 months. And I said to the agent what seems to be the trouble with getting a tenant? And he shrugged his shoulders and said, well, I don't know. It's been on the market for 18 months. And I said, has it ever occurred to you to put a sign outside the property? A big canvas sign hanging on the side of the building signs, and the grass verge saying, this building is for lease. Enquire within or go to this website. And he was stupefied by that thought. He said, what an amazingly good idea. You have to let people know. They think that they're going to go to their office because they're looking for office space.

Dolf de Roos 00:28:34 So now, would they be guaranteed to get a tenant within a week by putting a canvas sign on the building? Of course not. But I know we won't reduce the chances. And that's why if I can find a tenant before committing to buy the building, I'm pretty confident we'll get there. And I've got all these other techniques, Keith, of doing it like one that I really love is, let's say you've got a vacant warehouse and it's an ugly, horrible warehouse in a sea of similarly ugly and vacant warehouses. If you and I bought that, I would hesitate to suggest that we would have a tenant within a month. And here's how we'd do it. We would spend no more than $10,000, and we would go to the manager's office, because ultimately, the person who decides whether to lease our warehouse as opposed to another one, is not the CEO and the head office in New York or LA or wherever. It's not the cleaning lady or man who's going to sweep the floor. It's going to be the manager is going to manage it.

Dolf de Roos 00:29:28 So I get rid of the linoleum and I put in commercial grade carpet. I put in triple glazed or dual glazed windows. Keeps the noise out and the warmth in. I replace the fluorescent tubes with LED lights and replace the locks with electronic locks so he can never forget his keys. I put on an 80 inch LCD screen and tell him it's good for corporate training videos. We know he's never going to watch corporate training videos on it, but those TVs you can buy for $500 now, I put on a little coffee machine and make sure it's brewing when it looks, and have a fridge for end of week drinks, celebrations, and our unsuspecting manager, who's looked at seven ugly warehouses so far that day when he comes to our ugly warehouse and he opens that door to the manager's office subconsciously, or maybe consciously, he thinks, oh my gosh, if I lease this one, this is where I'm going to be packed for 40 hours a week for Lord knows how many years. He says I'll take it.

Dolf de Roos 00:30:17 And he hasn't even asked the rental. You might say that's bribery and corruption, but I think it's just offering a better product than the competition. No one else does this.

Keith Weinhold 00:30:27 Oh well. This is another brilliant example of using creativity in real estate investing. We're talking with the king of commercial real estate, Dolph Thomas More. We come back including some of his psychology and insights from the rich. This is general education. I'm your host, Keith Whitehall. Hey, you can get your mortgage loans at the same place where I get mine at Ridge Lending Group Nmls 42056. They provided our listeners with more loans than any provider in the entire nation. Because they specialize in income properties, they help you build a long term plan for growing your real estate empire. With leverage, you can start your prequalification and chat with President Ridge personally. Start now while it's on your mind at Ridge Lending group.com. That's Ridge Lending group.com. And your bank is getting rich off of you. The national average bank account pays less than 1% on your savings.

Keith Weinhold 00:31:31 If your money isn't making 4%, you're losing your hard earned cash to inflation. Let the liquidity fund help you put your money to work with minimum risk. Your cash generates up to an 8% return with compound interest year in and year out. Instead of earning less than 1% sitting in your bank account, the minimum investment is just $25. You keep getting paid until you decide you want your money back there. Decade plus track record proves they've always paid their investors 100% in full and on time. And I would know, because I'm an investor, to earn 8%. Hundreds of others are. Text. Family 266866. Learn more about Freedom Family Investments Liquidity Fund. On your journey to financial freedom through passive income. Text family to 66866. What's up everyone? This is HGTV Star Kombucha. Listen to get Rich education with Keith Wine hold and don't quit your day dream. Welcome back to Get Syndication. You're listening to episode 513 of the show that's created more passive income for busy people just like you than nearly any show in the world.

Keith Weinhold 00:32:55 I'm your host, Keith Whitehall. We're at the king of commercial real estate, Dolph Durst. Just like he has a lot of creative, proven types of things that you can do to improve commercial real estate. He also has a lot of those ideas for residential because he's been around the game for so long. So tell us about some more of those creative ways to add value to residential real estate.

Dolf de Roos 00:33:17 Well, probably. Like most people who end up focusing on commercial real estate, I got started in residential and that's where I first deployed some of my creativity. And I noticed, for instance, that I'd have a rental property that had no garage and no carport. And when you think about it, a tenant's biggest asset because it's not their home, it tends to be their car. One could argue that because they waste money on expensive cars every two years, that's why they can't afford to buy a home. But we won't go there. So if it's their car, if there's no carport and no garage, that means their biggest asset is in the rain.

Dolf de Roos 00:33:49 The sleet, the sun, the shine, the hail, you name it. So by building a carport, we can protect their biggest asset and it's worth a lot more to them by any means. If you have a carport on a house, that house will rent for about $80 a month extra. An 80 a month times 12 is 960. Call it $1,000 extra, a rent in a year. And Keith, I can build a carport for $1,000 easily. It's simply for one in each corner and then a roof with a bit of a slope. Why the slope? Well, if it rains, the rain falls off. If you're really cheap, you can get away with three posts. It still stands, you know. But no. And I'm being silly, but we sometimes make them with two posts and cantilever them. They're a bit more expensive, but then there are no posts out front so I can build a carport for $1,000, and then I get $1,000 extra a year coming in. And when you think about it again, which other investment can you think of that once you've consummated the deal, once you own it, you can spend an extra thousand dollars and then get 100% return on that money.

Dolf de Roos 00:34:49 And as they say in the infomercials. But wait, it gets even better. Because think about it. Let's say we have that carport built, but we haven't paid for it yet. And so we've got our thousand dollars a year extra of rental coming in. We go back to the appraiser and say, we want a new appraisal With an extra $1,000 coming in, he's likely to appraise it at $10,000 more. With that increased appraisal of 10,000, we go back to the bank and say, Mr. Bank manager, remember I got a 70 or 80% more. I've got now got an appraisal for 10,000 more. Will you give me a modest 70% loan on that? Well, banks are in the game of lending money and making a profit. So they say yes. So you get 7000 from the bank. Let's use 1000 of that 7000 to pay for the carport. It's now paid for. That leaves us with $6,000 cash. And the question is, is it earned income? And the answer is no, it's not earned income.

Dolf de Roos 00:35:42 There's no income tax on it. Is that the sale of something? Nope. Didn't sell it. No sales tax, no capital gains. It's tax free money. And you might say but hang on, you've now borrowed $7,000 that you have to be interested. Even at a ridiculously high 10%, that would only cost 700 a year. But we're collecting an extra thousand a year. So when you build this carport, you have two choices. One is pay cash for it and get 100% return on your money. Or the second one is don't pay any money for it, but $6,000 of tax free money in your pocket and get $300 a year surplus cash flow index for inflation for the rest of your life. Like, why would you not do that?

Keith Weinhold 00:36:25 Well, and it's a terrific example of how to accidentally improve the property. And it's so interesting that you bring this up, Dolph, because just a few weeks ago here on the show, I talked about garage real estate. I mentioned how adding a carport can often be more cost effective for a landlord from an ROI standpoint, than constructing a garage.

Keith Weinhold 00:36:43 I also talked about the future with autonomous cars. If people are going to need garages as much as they will, but that's into the future, and that's another subject in itself. All for one really important thing. I know that probably even more important than the actual investing is getting people in the right mindset to do this in the first place. You've studied this in really unexpected psychology behind wealth creation. I think a lot of it is counterintuitive, but it kind of makes sense because if you come from a scarcity and conventional mindset and you just do mediocre stuff, you're only going to get a mediocre outcome. So why don't you talk to us more about breaking down that psychology that most Americans and most residents of everywhere in the world really struggle with?

Dolf de Roos 00:37:28 Well, my pleasure. I had been teaching real estate for about 15 years and I decided why? I don't know, but I decided to run a survey to find out how many of my students became a millionaire within 18 months. That was my expected time frame of reasonableness.

Keith Weinhold 00:37:43 Is that I was actually wealthy.

Dolf de Roos 00:37:45 Right? And I was pretty confident. But when the results came in, I was devastated because it was fewer than 4%. And in my mind, 4% wasn't even statistically significant. Meaning if you take a thousand people, a random 4% are going to become millionaires. One's going to marry into money, one's going to win the lottery, one's going to win at a casino, and the fourth one's going to fall over a paper bag and looks inside. And we just believe that there's a million bucks there. So I vowed to stop teaching until I'd cracked the nut, because my dilemma was, how is it that when you give people all the tools you think they need to become fabulously wealthy, they still don't do it right? And what I found is that it had nothing to do with my rate of speech or my accent. Not that I have one, of course, or the content of my information or the sequencing of it. It had everything to do with the subconscious mind of the student, the fear.

Dolf de Roos 00:38:38 And he has that stance. You're a young kid and you say, hey, mom or dad, I want a bicycle. And they say, well, what do you think, kiddo? That money grows on trees and I know where the parents coming from. Hey, money's not that easy to come by. Temper your expectations of what you'll get for your bet. But this kid is. Our money doesn't grow on trees. Meaning money's hard to come by. And how often have we been told money can't buy you happiness. And money is the root of all evil. And when I say that, someone always points out no, the full saying in the Bible is for the love of money is the root of all evil. There's a big difference. And I'll say, yes, there is a big difference. But to the subconscious mind, it's still here's money and evil in the same sentence, and it's unconsciously makes that association. And the religious even say that it is easier to get a camel through the eye of a needle than for a rich man to get to heaven.

Dolf de Roos 00:39:24 In other words, if you're rich, you're condemned to hell. And that's a nice, strong belief system to take on board, even subconsciously. And by the way, most people don't know what the eye of the needle is. The eye of the needle was the entrance to East Jerusalem and even camels. And I've been there. I've said the camel said to get down on their knees as a sign of respect before they could enter. So there's a reason behind all these things, but the subconscious mind takes aboard. Money can buy you happiness. Money's hard to come by if you work hard for it. You don't deserve that money's root of lever. You won't get to heaven. You condemned to hell. And how do we describe the rich kids? We say they are so rich. That filthy rich. They're so rich. That stinking rich we associate being rich with filth and stench. So that is why in the United States and every Western nation, when someone wins the lottery and we no longer win 10 or $20,000, it's 300 million or 800 million or 1.2 billion when people win the lottery within five years of winning, 80% of the winners are back to where they were before they won.

Dolf de Roos 00:40:25 Right? And why is that? I discovered that it's because subconsciously, even though they're happy they won it and they going to tell their boss they're going to quit and they're going to buy their parents a nice home and they're going to get a new car. But subconsciously they feel they don't deserve it because they haven't worked hard for it. They're not going to be happy. They're now evil people. They're not going to go to heaven, and they're filthy and they stink. And the only way to overcome that is to get rid of the source of the problem, which is the money. And you'll see it happen again and again and again. So what we do is we dissolve what's in the subconscious mind, all these things that we've been saying without realizing it over and over and over again and replace them with more empowering beliefs. And the great thing about the subconscious mind is, initially, you don't even have to believe the thing that you're going to say over and over again to replace those old ones, but it could be something as simple as money is good or a bit more sophisticated.

Dolf de Roos 00:41:18 My poverty helps no one, but my wealth can help a lot of people.

Keith Weinhold 00:41:22 The more you have, the more you can give.

Dolf de Roos 00:41:24 Exactly as the reverend says, I'm a magnet for money. And so when we get into this mode of thinking differently, then all of a sudden people find that the money starts flowing and we give people specific exercises to do. And it's you think by how is that going to make difference? But it does. And so what I found when I introduced these concepts into my real estate teaching, the success went from under 4% to over 80%. And if that's not evidence enough that this works, I don't know what is.

Keith Weinhold 00:41:56 Yes, it really takes changing that mindset to break down these old stereotypes and have the confidence to say and act upon things like financially free beats debt free. But if you raise to think that money is a scarce resource, you think that retiring debt is a good thing, or don't focus on getting your money to work for you. Focus on getting other people's money to work for you.

Keith Weinhold 00:42:17 A lot of people don't even know what that means. But yeah, it takes breaking down some of these simple things that we all began to learn when we were age five or something like that. Golf is we're winding down here. You operate globally. You play globally. That intimidates a lot of people. They don't really know how to do that. But it's giving you this wherewithal to say that real estate is the only profession that can truly be played globally. Tell us about that.

Dolf de Roos 00:42:44 Well, when you think about it, if you study to become, say, an attorney, you can't just up and leave the US and go to Germany or Peru or Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia to practice, you've got to study their local laws and set the bar exam. If you're a physician, you can't just go to another country and conduct frontal lobotomies on patients. You've got to study and hit the bar exam. I had a friend who was a dermatologist, a skin doctor from Austria. He moved to Australia after eight years of study to get his qualifications.

Dolf de Roos 00:43:13 They wouldn't accept them here to start all over again. And he said that's ridiculous. And he became a farmer and was very happy doing that. But when you think about it, not only our real estate investors welcomed all over the world, but they think that you're going to bring money with you. You don't have to, of course. In fact, if you're going to invest as a US citizen in another country, I would not recommend bringing U.S. dollars with you. I'd recommend borrowing locally, because if you bring U.S. dollars with you, then you're subject to exchange rate fluctuations. So just borrow locally and then you've got no risk from that at all. But despite the fact that the other countries, the host countries think that you're an investor, you're going to bring money. So they welcome you with open arms. I think it's the only profession where you are never discriminated against. Your welcomed. You're made to feel welcome. They want more of you. They encourage you to come with delegations of other investors.

Dolf de Roos 00:44:05 It's kind of good gig to be on.

Keith Weinhold 00:44:08 Make the World Yours. The UN recognizes 193 world nations. Get out and see them and invest outside your own home country if you have the ability to. Well, Duff, you've got this interesting combination of commercial real estate focus, a great grasp of the mindset and how to help people with the wealth mindset. And then thirdly, you also operate globally. So it's been really interesting to speak with you. You help people in so many ways with a lot of your teaching resources. So why don't you let our audience know how they can engage with that?

Dolf de Roos 00:44:41 We have a lot of programs that we run from time to time. I mentioned I saw a client in the UK. He was an example of someone we did a fly out for. I'd spend three days just with that one client to help him with his portfolio. But the thing I've got coming up is a live training and people can get a free seat to attend and learn more at my website called Dolf Live.

Dolf de Roos 00:45:03 So Dorfman and Dolf and then live Live.com golf Dolph Live.com. You can see what we've got coming up there. It's entirely free to attend. And then, you know, once that event's gone, I'm sure we'll post other things there, but that's the best way of staying informed with what I've got going. Part of my passion, Keith, is sharing it. You know, it's pretty boring doing it on your own. And one of the biggest thrills I get is when you get feedback by email or however, from someone who said, well, when I heard this or saw that or read this, I wasn't even sure if it would work and I certainly wasn't sure if it would work for me. But look at what I've done since then, and that gives you a feeling that you can't describe in words. That's pretty cool. You change someone's life and you don't even really know who they are, then that's kind of that's fun stuff.

Keith Weinhold 00:45:48 The ruse has been helpful to me in our audience today. The King of Commercial Real Estate, thanks so much for coming on to the show.

Dolf de Roos 00:45:55 Hey, thank you so much for the opportunity. I really enjoyed it.

Keith Weinhold 00:46:04 Check out Dolph Live.com. It looks like he's got a live event coming up this Thursday night, and if you missed that more afterward, like I was saying earlier, a ton of great episodes coming up here on the get Rich education podcast, just stacked. As always, you'll get lessons from me when I'm going to break down. Is any debt worth paying off? Which debts are which are not and why? That's going to help you know what to do with every debt for the rest of your life. And that's besides what I mentioned earlier, both new guests and very popular returning guests. I hope that you learned something today. I'll run it back next week when we meet again. Until then, I'm your host, Keith Weintraub. Don't quit your daydream.

Speaker 8 00:46:54 Nothing on this show should be considered specific, personal or professional advice. Please consult an appropriate tax, legal, real estate, financial or business professional for individualized advice. Opinions of guests are their own.

Speaker 8 00:47:05 Information is not guaranteed. All investment strategies have the potential for profit or loss the host is operating on behalf of get Rich education LLC exclusively.

Keith Weinhold 00:47:22 The preceding program was brought to you by your home for wealth building. Get Rich education.com.

Direct download: GREepisode513_b.mp3
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Mon, 29 July 2024

Wealthy business owners and landlords are vilified. Yet, wealthy actors, athletes, and singers are praised.

This makes zero sense.

Businesses and landlords provide essential services; entertainers don’t.

The White House recently published a “rent control light” plan. It’s a bad idea and has almost zero chance of passing a divided Congress. I critique it.

Hear my in-person sit-down interview the Liberland President, Vit Jedlicka. Liberland is a micronation in Eastern Europe, between Serbia and Croatia.

It calls itself: “The freest sovereign state in the world, powered by the blockchain.”

Learn about Liberland’s: reason for existing, population, infrastructure, real estate, currency, geography, language, culture, problems, and more. You can purchase merits and become a citizen at Liberland.org.

Resources mentioned:

Learn more about the freest nation in the world, Liberland:

Liberland.org

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GRE Investment Coach, start here:

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RidgeLendingGroup.com or call 855-74-RIDGE

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511: Freedom, Liberty, and Real Estate Investing

Complete episode transcript:

Keith Weinhold 00:00:01 Welcome to GRE. I'm your host, Keith Weinhold. Why do people vilify wealthy business owners and landlords but praise wealthy actors and athletes? Rent control plans must be killed where the real opportunity is in today's real estate market. Then my in-person sit down interview with the president of the micro nation of Levelland today and get rich education.

Robert Syslo 00:00:27 Since 2014, the powerful Get Rich education podcast has created more passive income for people than nearly any other show in the world. This show teaches you how to earn strong returns from passive real estate, investing in the best markets without losing your time being a flipper or landlord. Show host Keith Reinhold writes for both Forbes and Rich Dad Advisors, and delivers a new show every week. Since 2014, there's been millions of listeners downloads and 188 world nations. He has A-list show guests include top selling personal finance author Robert Kiyosaki. Get Rich education can be heard on every podcast platform, plus has had its own dedicated Apple and Android listener. Phone apps build wealth on the go with the get Rich education podcast.

Robert Syslo 00:01:05 Sign up now for the get Rich education podcast or visit get Rich education.com.

Corey Coates 00:01:13 You're listening to the show that has created more financial freedom than nearly any show in the world. This is get rich education.

Keith Weinhold 00:01:29 Welcome to Greece. From Dubrovnik, Croatia, to Dublin, Ohio, and across 188 nations worldwide. I'm Keith Weinhold than you are inside episode 512 of get Rich education. You can set up your life so that you stop using your time to make money. Use the bank's money to make money. People come from scarcity families, just like I did with a scarcity mindset to think all debt is bad. Hang off debt won't make you wealthy. You don't build wealth. So by the time you reach age 62, you think, hey, I just paid off my last debt and now I can retire. It doesn't work that way. Well, why couldn't you retire sooner? Sheesh. So what do people mistakenly do? They end up working their whole life for people that have debt. Successful business owners and real estate investors carry debt.

Keith Weinhold 00:02:29 That's how they can own so much productivity and so many assets. And you know what's interesting here? Business owners and real estate moguls, they're the ones that often seem to be vilified, criticized, ridiculed for obtaining wealth when they took risks, took out loans and provided jobs or housing for others, yet Yet at the same time, somehow actors, athletes and singers are all praised for obtaining wealth as a performing artist. That makes zero sense. Why would you criticize a successful business owner like Amazon founder Jeff Bezos? Bezos probably made your life distinctly better by offering you convenient shopping for anything. Protein bars with a few clicks, free shipping, and pioneering drone delivery. A landlord is often vilified. Most landlords are mom and pop types that aren't even that wealthy. But even if they were, as long as they're not a slumlord, I mean, they took on risk debt, operating expenses, and being on call 24 over seven in order to provide others with housing. So with Bezos types and landlords, we're talking about taking risk to provide society with essentials like food and housing.

Keith Weinhold 00:03:58 And while the business owners get vilified baselessly performing artists like actors, athletes and singers do not. Yet they merely provide entertainment to society. Now I like entertainment and I follow sports to the NFL. Major League Baseball, the NBA. But their services are not essential. Take a movie actor. They get paid well for pretending to be somebody else. Consider how absurd that sounds. And yet they're praised for obtaining wealth from doing that. So this is really backwards. And, you know, I think that a lot of this resentment for business owners is that you can't really see what they do for you. Like, you can a performer that's on the front stage, like Beyonce or Lizzo or Taylor Swift, Business owners, real estate investors, they're on the back stage. And what an entertainer does front stage that is highly visible. I mean, that's my best guess about why this is. And a lot of the time it just comes back to these primordial human emotions like resentment and jealousy and envy. There is no reason to criticize the rich just solely for being wealthy Because deep down, it's all where we want to be.

Keith Weinhold 00:05:21 Anyway, how is Bezos bad and Lizzo good? I don't get it, but it's been that way for a while now. When you look at surveys of institutions that are most trusted over time, and it's been pretty much the same these past few decades, what's at the top of the polls are small businesses. People say that they're trusting of small businesses in your rental property. Business surely counts here. Small businesses trusted more than institutions like the media or politicians. So I encourage you on social media and wherever else to support small businesses. And it's kind of funny how friends they often might not put a like on your small business, though they say that they trust them and that they resent large businesses, you know? Then that friend turns right around and supports Apple, Coca-Cola, and Starbucks. people say they trust small business, but so often then they go patronize large businesses. Nothing wrong with patronizing large businesses, but you're just not doing what you're saying. So my point is, don't resent anyone just for financial success and consider outwardly supporting small businesses.

Keith Weinhold 00:06:40 If you indeed put a lot of trust in them yourself, just like much of America says that they do. Now, is there a movement afoot to disenfranchise big wealthy business owners or big landlords. I mean, we're talking about these very people that are resented. Well, one way is with rent control, that is capping the amount of rent that landlords can charge. Now, since Covid hit in March of 2020. Apartment rents are up 18% and single family rents are up 25%. Okay. Those are cumulative figures over this four plus year stretch. And that's actually not that much. It's about 5% a year. And now sure, political news has been like galactic big this month with the Trump shooting and the Biden drop out and the Kamala Harris endorsement as a Democratic frontrunner. And we rarely talk politics here for a few reasons. Number one, it's divisive. People lose their minds. Secondly, speculation is cheap. So much of politics is speculating on what might happen in the future. Well, there's one known here.

Keith Weinhold 00:08:01 Whether you like it or not, expect six more months of President Biden. And thirdly, politics is overblown. Its importance is inflated. A president rarely changes your life. But the good news in this is that you can your autonomy, your freedom, your decisions. You can change your life. So to put the politics aside, let's stick to a one issue subject. The white House revealed published what I call a rent control lite plan earlier this month. And to give some credit first, this the same plan it also repurposes publicly and to build more affordable housing. I sent you a link to the whole thing in our newsletter last week. Well, this rent control lite thing has almost zero chance of becoming law. VP Kamala Harris endorsed it on ex. President Trump would kill it even if it's revived under the next president. It has no realistic shot of passing a divided Congress. But let's look at this anyway. What was proposed is that if a property owner increases rent more than 5% annually, it would reduce tax incentives for large landlords.

Keith Weinhold 00:09:23 I'll tell you what large landlords are in a moment. Now, you could still increase rent by more than 5%. It would just reduce the federal tax breaks and it would have lasted for only two years. And the reason the white House put this proposal together for just two years is as a bridge to a time when more homes are expected to be built. I mean, that's the real intent here. And importantly, this all would have only applied to owners of 50 plus units. So that's mostly for apartment owners. Single family rental owners would be largely untouched, but consider how apartment owners could have lost their accelerated depreciation benefit, also known as their cost segregation. And note that I'm already talking about this rent control light proposal in the past tense, not the present tense, because this whole thing, it's just a bunch of virtue signaling to try to show that something is being done to rein in housing inflation. Well, this is really odd and awkward since the inflation came from the government in the first place.

Keith Weinhold 00:10:30 I mean, sheesh, this is like shooting someone in the foot and then trying to get praise for bandaging the victim that you just shot. Well, the federal government, they just don't do rent control on this level at all. They haven't. In fact, the feds haven't regulated rents on private buildings since World War two. So this really isn't a thing, but it just brings to light that rent control is a bad idea. It puts a cap on risk. Time after time after time. History shows us that it makes developers stop building. Now, the white House plan did have a carve out for new builds. Also, what this does is that landlords have no incentive to improve property. That's why it reduces housing supply, which is already low, and it creates long term dilapidated living conditions, like I touched on here just a couple episodes ago. But how weird to even make such an ill advised proposal. I mean, look, if government puts a price cap of $2 on a gallon of milk, then dairies will stop producing milk.

Keith Weinhold 00:11:41 Milk shelves are going to be empty. It's like in communist countries. This is why you saw photos of bread lines. When there are price controls, then manufacturers don't produce. And just the same, landlords would stop providing housing. If I didn't put a fine enough point on this yet. President Obama's top economist, Jason Furman. He probably said it best in the Washington Post. Furman says, quote, rent control has been about as disgraced as any economic policy in the toolkit. The idea that we'd be reviving and expanding it will ultimately make our housing supply problems worse, not better. End quote from President Obama's top economist 94% of economists agreed that rent control reduces quality and quantity of housing available. It is the most effective way to destroy a city. Aside from bombing it, what an ill conceived plan to regulate rents. That's rent control, but the most dangerous drinking game of 2024 that is still sipping at every mention of the interest rate lock in effect on a real estate or economics podcast. Though it's been two plus years since they made their dramatic rise.

Keith Weinhold 00:13:05 Many are still transfixed on mortgage rates. They recently hit a five month low below 7%, and a lot of people still expect mortgage rates to fall between today and next year, since inflation has now plunged from a high of 9.1% two years ago, down to 3% now, the Federal Reserve has held rates steady for more than a year now, and most don't expect any change either when they meet in two days. But be ready. Be prepared when mortgage rates fall substantially. Millions more buyers will qualify to buy a home, and this could substantially stoke housing demand and lift housing prices further. Now last week on the show, you heard gray investment coach narration. I discuss Libre land libre, land libre land. Earlier this month, I visited the exhibit hall at an event called FreedomFest. I saw the library and booth and I recognized their name, and I congratulated the people there in the booth. On that, the fact that I have heard of Liberland before, that's somewhat of a compliment to them. It shows me that they're doing something right, liberal, and is a small piece of land between Serbia and Croatia in Eastern Europe, and it apparently hasn't been claimed by any other nation for decades.

Keith Weinhold 00:14:32 The name Liberland, and I think it's easy to remember because it sounds like liberty. So that's how you pronounce it. Well, I got to talking to some of their representatives at the exhibit hall. They're all smart people, but there was no one person that had all the answers I was looking for. So I requested to speak with the president of Liberland. And about two hours later we made that happen. So today, shortly you will hear Liberland President Vit Jedlicka and I together. Now, the United Nations doesn't yet recognize Libya and all. Ask the president if other nations recognize it. Wikipedia calls liberal and a micro nation. It is seven square kilometers. That's almost three square miles. It's mostly forested. I don't believe there are any mountains there that I can see in the photos. It has Danube river frontage and just a few people there. The Danube river frontage is key because it contains an island that belongs to Leon, and also the Danube is key because it also connects to the Black Sea.

Keith Weinhold 00:15:40 And we'll see if it can be a tax free haven, which is apparently the intent. You might be able to see this working when you compare it to micro nations like Monaco and Liechtenstein. Some journalists have been skeptical about libre land. You'll see how I approach it with the president shortly. He champions laissez faire capitalism. Laissez faire means a minimal government. They're also making the new nation's laws transparent on the blockchain and an economy based on cryptocurrency. As for liberalized population, by March of this year, liberalism had 1200 registered citizens who had paid up to $10,000 for labor and passports, but fewer actually living in the nation now, working on it and building it. Neighbouring Croatia has at times been hostile and blocked off access to libre land. These past few years, you will hear some background noise in President Witte and his upcoming interview. So I ask for your attention and patience there and for all. We are in an exhibit hall at a conference. I'll just call him whit in the interview. And what does his day to day look like? He travels globally a lot, often trying to get into international diplomatic and friendship agreements.

Keith Weinhold 00:17:01 But how do you just adopt statehood out of nothing? That's what's interesting here. Now, when he describes libre land to me, you can't see it here in the audio only. But he often points to Liberty Island, an island on the Danube river that's part of Liberty. And does having a free nation mean that you have the freedom to do whatever you want on your land, or they're soon going to be hos there? I'll ask him that very question, literally. President and I coming up here shortly. First, as for more, I suppose, a familiar land here in the US. You can't make any money from the rental property that you don't own. We are here to help get you started being profitable that way. And it's free. Get some of those. Real estate pays five ways properties. Then we have access to a good number of them here at great a good variety, different property types, different geographies. But at times I'm asked where is the real estate opportunity today in this real estate market, with higher prices, higher rents normalize interest rates, higher operating expenses and low housing supply? Really the opportunity is in affordable housing.

Keith Weinhold 00:18:25 If I could just put two words to it. That's the short answer of affordable housing. Like I often say, provide housing that's clean, safe, affordable and functional in today's market really emphasizes the affordable. That's where the sustainable demand is. Since so many want to be first time homebuyers are priced out of the market currently, it's like a dam that's waiting to break once interest rates go lower compared to a year ago, America has a lower proportion of homeowners and more renters, and the renter numbers just look to keep increasing due to that low affordability. And also this surge of immigrants from the past year or so. That is why you want to own affordable rental housing now. Affordable housing really that can mean a few things in a physical form. That could mean mobile home parks, single family homes, duplexes to fourplex or larger apartment buildings, but in any case, an income producing asset. Do you know what that does for you? That's like an employee that's working for you 24 over seven and without the personality problems, and they never call in sick.

Keith Weinhold 00:19:40 And when you're looking for a property, it's easier to screen properties that it is higher in screen employees. We can help set up an entire real estate investment plan for you with properties like a couple properties. I'll detail for you here shortly. And I also sent you these property details in the second section of last week's newsletter. You also got to see a photo of one of them. And by the way, you can get our wealth building newsletter by texting GR 266866. Just do it right now. What's on your mind for our free? Don't quit your daydream letter. Text GR 266866. And what's been in our newsletter lately? I showed you exactly where I think home prices are going to go by the year 2028. I loved writing about that and researching that for you in the Don't quit Your Daydream letter. Also, in recent letters, you got need to know details about our banks in real trouble now. The Wolf of Airbnb sentenced to prison y new homes will keep getting smaller. Why you can't blame investors for pricier housing.

Keith Weinhold 00:20:54 Why prioritizing property is a huge mistake, and the ten cities where you will regret buying property. And if those stories don't interest you, if getting the first crack at profitable income property does not interest you, then you won't want to subscribe. But if it sounds like those details interest you again, you can get the don't quit your day dream letter by texting gray to 266866 available properties we've had at Gray Marketplace lately that our investment coach can help me with are these two brand new single family homes that make great rentals. The first one is in Prairie Grove, Arkansas. These are the places where the numbers work, and Arkansas has been named the most landlord friendly of all 50 states. It is four bed, two bath purchase price of 288 K and a rent of $2,200. Good numbers for a new build there. It's 1500 and 50ft². The second property, also a new build, is in Pinson, Alabama that's just northeast of Birmingham. And this single family rental is three bed, two bath. The purchase price is 303 K, the rent is $2,000, it's 1400 and eight square feet.

Keith Weinhold 00:22:14 And that rent to price ratio that's not as good as the first one in Arkansas. But of course, Alabama's got those ultra low property tax rates that you get to pay. Yet you can own it and reside in any state or nation. We can help set up an entire real estate investment plan for you, whether it's with properties like these or others, with our investment coaching and it is free for you. Yes, it is just this free as sun, fresh air and hugs. If you think you're ready to buy some real estate pays five ways property. Book a time to chat at Gray marketplace.com/coach to help connect you with a marketplace of income properties. That's grey marketplace.com/coach liberal and president what you'd like and I straight ahead you're listening to get rich education. Hey you can get your mortgage loans at the same place where I get mine at Ridge lending group Nmls 42056. They provided our listeners with more loans than any provider in the entire nation because they specialize in income properties. They help you build a long term plan for growing your real estate empire.

Keith Weinhold 00:23:32 With leverage, you can start your prequalification and chat with President Ridge personally. Start now while it's on your mind at Ridge Lending group.com, that's Ridge Lending group.com. And your bank is getting rich off of you. The national average bank account pays less than 1% on your savings. If your money isn't making 4%, you're losing your hard earned cash to inflation. Let the liquidity fund help you put your money to work with minimum risk Your cash generates up to an 8% return with compound interest year in and year out. Instead of earning less than 1% sitting in your bank account, the minimum investment is just 25 K. You keep getting paid until you decide you want your money back there. Decade plus track record proves they've always paid their investors 100% in full and on time. And I would know because I'm an investor, to earn 8%. Hundreds of others are text family 266866. Learn more about Freedom Family Investments Liquidity Fund on your journey to financial freedom through passive income. Text family to 66866.

Robert Helms 00:24:54 Everybody it's Robert Elms with the Real Estate Guys radio program.

Robert Helms 00:24:57 So glad you found Keith wine old and get rich education. Don't quit your day dream.

Keith Weinhold 00:25:11 Hey. Welcome back to get rich action. We're talking with someone that's going to explain a different subject to us. We're talking about starting up and the potential new nation. I was the president of that nation called Libre, Leon, I was there. President Witt, welcome in. Good to meet you. It's so good to have you here. And, you know, interestingly, we met at an event called Freedom Fest. So this is potentially so parallel with that as you're looking to develop your own nation now at a place like Freedom Fest, I think we have a lot of people that have a certain set of opinions, and a lot of people at a place like Freedom Fest, where you champion ideals, would probably love to tell you how they would like changes to be made in the United States. But I think if you ask that same person, okay, what if you begin with a clean slate? How would you begin a nation anew, but you're actually trying to do that? So tell us about Libber Land.

Keith Weinhold 00:26:04 It's pretty.

Vit Jedlicka 00:26:05 Exciting to.

Robert Helms 00:26:06 Hear Kennedy.

Vit Jedlicka 00:26:07 The candidate for president, talking about his plans to utilize blockchain to make the country transparent and or functioning. Libra is, I would say, at least 5 to 10 years ahead of any other nation states. And utilizing that, we are combining the best technology that is out there with the best ideas, ideology that is out there, which is, of course, libertarianism, making sure that the society as free as possible within some framework of basic rules. So this is exactly what we're doing. And we were looking for a piece of land to manifest that in physical world. And here we go. It's so liberal and it's a beautiful piece of land between Russia and Serbia that was not claimed by any other country for more than 35 years. We came there, we struggled with like we actually took nine years to even get inside of it properly. And now we're building and living there for more than a year.

Keith Weinhold 00:26:58 So this seven square kilometer plot of land between Croatia and Serbia, that is on the Danube floodplain, you've got frontage on the Danube river, even an island and the Danube river here in this Start-Up nation, if you will, of libre land.

Keith Weinhold 00:27:14 Really, as I've come to understand it, one real goal of liberalism is just to have any nation in the world recognize it as its own sovereign nation.

Vit Jedlicka 00:27:25 We actually got a couple countries to write or sign a regular deals, like with other states. We started with Somaliland, which was at the time unrecognized country. It's fully functional. Interesting story. It's actually former Peace of Somalia, which got independence like 25 years ago. And they're fairly finally prosperous and functioning, even without any recognition by any other country in the world. Now, they got recently recognized by Ethiopia. We followed up with Haiti agreement. We were signing a couple more agreements. Right now, I'm actually heading to one of the African countries to sign some friendship agreement. So it's not that the other countries don't recognize us now. We're working hard on diplomacy. You know, we have diplomatic relations with places like El Salvador, where we were on official diplomatic visits. So, of course, traditional form of recognition is one of our priorities.

Vit Jedlicka 00:28:13 But it's not the number one priority, really. Our number one priority is to finish a very close, a whole model of statehood and utilize the 745,000 people that applied for citizenship, for really real building of the country itself and the nation.

Keith Weinhold 00:28:31 Some recognition is coming slowly, but pulling back a bigger picture. Why do this? Why take this on? Why start your own nation?

Vit Jedlicka 00:28:39 Why not? I think leading by a good example is the best way to do things like talking about liberty. I did a lot of educational work on explaining people why liberty works, but it's much better to do things in the practical terms.

Keith Weinhold 00:28:53 Now, what's interesting is, you know, we've talked about freedom and the ideals of freedom earlier. This freedom mean freedom to do whatever you want.

Vit Jedlicka 00:29:03 You know, within some boundaries, of course, as long as you don't breach other people's freedoms and you have to find the right set up. And but right now, the problem with the current society is that there are so many regulations, you don't even know what you're reaching, and you're usually not reaching anybody's property or anybody.

Vit Jedlicka 00:29:20 It's just a bunch of stupid regulations that make your life tough. You cannot do business. You cannot even help your community. It's funny what kind of stuff we are dealing with in Croatia right now. There is a mosquito calamity in the neighborhood around Libre land and the local municipality don't have money to fix it. And they also don't let us to fix it because you have to have special license for fixing it. So everybody is suffering under the mosquito calamity, which is California.

Keith Weinhold 00:29:47 Okay, so that's an example of overregulation, potentially too many laws. You just brought up one of the limits of freedom, potentially. Well, we don't want people to be able to do anything or therefore they might be.

Vit Jedlicka 00:29:57 Able to hurt or to.

Keith Weinhold 00:29:58 Harm another person, but therefore that would be some sort of of law. And then there would be some need to sort of enforce that. So how does a start up country that wants to be a free nation, you know, how do you meet needs like laws and enforcement and perhaps a judicial process.

Vit Jedlicka 00:30:16 Or do you have a standard framework for the country? There is now a newly elected Congress. It's still a test election, but it has been already elected according to all the principles that the blockchain is bringing full transparency, immutability. It happens within the split of second of the very minimal cost. So all these things are actually already happening, and the Congress will now take all the laws that were prepared by the Preparatory Committee. And only if we have the whole framework of the laws necessary to run a state. I have 250 pages of regulations, very simple framework, which already allows a society to function quite well. And I would like to keep it that way. You know, keep the Constitution at the, let's say, the 20 pages and another 230 pages of different laws that define the the ways that the society should work. And anybody basically allowed to read all the regulations in the country within one day. It's not like here, right in the US.

Keith Weinhold 00:31:10 Yes. But its population grows, is the infrastructure grows, is more complicated, needs must be met.

Keith Weinhold 00:31:16 The size of government invariably and inevitably seems to expand with all existing nations in the world. I think the UN recognizes 193 sovereign nations currently. How do you keep the size of government from expanding over the long term in Libya?

Vit Jedlicka 00:31:32 It's a challenge. Of course, but the way we keep it is the way that there is only one institution that can make new laws, and it's kind of a corporate governance of liberalism. But that governance is in check by three other institutions that can get rid of the laws. The first and most important one is public veto. So majority of citizens can veto any law or regulations that they don't like. Second one is the Constitutional Court. So the Constitutional Court looks into the law if it basically is only focused on security and justice or diplomacy, so that the state shouldn't legislate on other things, really let other things to the private sector. So the Constitutional Court strictly looks if it adheres to that. That's another important institution. Then there is something like House of Lords of liberal minded, who can also veto the laws that the corporate governance the Congress actually creates.

Vit Jedlicka 00:32:23 So one institution to make laws and three institutions to get rid of it.

Keith Weinhold 00:32:28 Else about what's there now, the natural resources, the population and the infrastructure.

Vit Jedlicka 00:32:33 Well, that's the beautiful territory with the island next to liberal land. This is part of liberal land. It's called Liberty Island. It's a long, beautiful sandy beach. Right now, the under construction, there is 24, three houses in this area. So it will be one of the third thing will be the tourism. And we need to be able to host the visitors. We are planning two major music festivals and conferences in the summer, which will take place in August and in September. Of course, you're very well invited. We want to promote the tourism in Berlin, but also in the whole region. The biggest resorts. And it's like that with any country that is prosperous around the world. Be it Hong Kong or Singapore, is not the natural resources. It's the capacity of people to freely make, trade and do business.

Keith Weinhold 00:33:20 You're right.

Keith Weinhold 00:33:20 In fact, a place like yes, Hong Kong or Singapore or even Japan itself have been exemplary of that. A place can be prosperous without having many natural resources. It's truly about the ingenuity of the people we talk about. The people tell us more about the population.

Vit Jedlicka 00:33:35 The population. Right now we've got 800,000 people, almost that sign up for citizenship, which is a huge pipeline. I think the reasonable like ideal population of Liberal would be around 140,000. So we cannot even accept everybody to physically live in liberal land because we would be so overpopulated. Right now we've got some thousand citizens and 6500 residents that basically went through the pipeline, and there is a couple dozens of people living on the territory of liberal lands and working and building stuff. So it's kind of fun to see that initial development. very early into the development. There is still a quite a bit of obstacles to really speed up the development of the brand, mainly installed by Croatia, but we're very happy that after all these years we're able to actually be there physically and develop stuff.

Vit Jedlicka 00:34:23 So we're building a small hospital. There are seven construction workers that take care of it. We're also building the Treehouse resort. There is another ten guys working on that, and that there is a bunch of people that came to settle and they're helping with some stuff for the site. And then there is around 150 people that live around Liberal and that are connected and are supporting the movement. Well.

Keith Weinhold 00:34:44 Now we're a real estate platform. We're going to have both public land and privately.

Vit Jedlicka 00:34:50 Every land is private, in a sense. In labor land. The deal is that right now, people can actually come to the land and claim piece of land if they have enough merit. There is are the the shares of liberal land and can actually not even exchange them if they just have them. They have the right to settle things for fun, which is kind of exciting even though there are all these obstacles. But we're helping people to get over them and get the development of the country going as fast as possible.

Keith Weinhold 00:35:16 Can a person purchase merits or purchase land in labor land right now?

Vit Jedlicka 00:35:21 Anybody that donates to Libre land on the website gets the merits.

Keith Weinhold 00:35:26 Are there going to be things like Hoa's in Libre land? Is that something that you foresee? What is actually homeowners associations where you have neighborhoods and boards in those neighborhoods where you know they need to approve of things like, hey, you can only paint your home for different colors, and you need to mow your grass within every two weeks.

Vit Jedlicka 00:35:46 Well, that surely there will be different types of associations and liberal. We're not going to force one or the other type. This property development here on Liberty Island, the three houses and this area will be kind of association of sort. We want to have 24 people that that invest into the tree house, and they would act as a community. They will help each other, but they will also have the place to visitors. To really make sure that we have a good initial settlement for the permanent population. And I would like every single one of these guys to like some nice story behind how they came to live and then why they're building a house there. We want to make a reality TV show out of it as soon as possible as well.

Keith Weinhold 00:36:28 What about currency? The euro is used in the area. But you mentioned blockchain earlier, and I don't think you plan on using the euro in liberally. Tell us about that. We don't do.

Vit Jedlicka 00:36:38 That. We use liberal and dolar. We use liberal and merit. Those are the main currencies that are tied with our blockchain. And the pound dollar was launched on exchanges three months ago, reading quite nicely, steadily at 2 USD per $1 billion. So this is like also demanded currency by our suppliers.

Keith Weinhold 00:36:56 Is it a cryptocurrency? Yes.

Vit Jedlicka 00:36:58 It's just my own currency of our blockchain. Our blockchain is standalone. It's not depending on any other blockchain. Our citizens are the one ones that securely network and run the network. They run the servers. Every single citizen in Lebanon has the right to run the run the network. That's kind of all we know. We're not really being dependent on any other network like Ethereum or Polkadot. We are simply running our own thing with its own main token. The main token is liberal dollar, but the main political token is liberal and varied, and that also comes with the political voting rights.

Keith Weinhold 00:37:32 Do you foresee there being a future rental property market on libre land?

Vit Jedlicka 00:37:39 Oh, of course, of all these, all these three houses are meant to be for rental for bigger events or team building. So this is something that is happening right now, and I wish we could have at least, you know, 50 bedrooms there by the end of summer.

Keith Weinhold 00:37:54 You know, we talked about how society might work on liberally, and why don't we pull back a bit more and talk about that physical geography, because you chose an area that's basically on the Danube floodplain. So it's probably pretty fertile and it's near some other populated nations. But of course, there are some areas of the world that no one else is claiming. Tell us about how you chose this area over. All the others in the.

Vit Jedlicka 00:38:16 Area was in the most reasonable place, I would say, between the two countries that had war, and they learned to sort out things in a peaceful way. And, you know, Antarctica is also on claim, but you don't want to stay there.

Vit Jedlicka 00:38:27 It's for freezing, right? This particular place is heart shaped. It's seven square kilometers. It was a culturally similar environment to where I was born, so I was considering it as a perfect place to start. And you can fit.

Keith Weinhold 00:38:39 You can get all four seasons in Libre land. What else should one know about Libre land that they come approach you with questions about what do people really want to hear about?

Vit Jedlicka 00:38:50 They of course are interested in the sport. They want to see how what kind of utility does it have? They're a bunch of countries where you can use it to get in and out, which is kind of cool. But the main utility for Americans, for example, is that they use it on crypto exchanges, or they use it with different financial institutions as a second passport. If the US passport is not good for that, it's a great membership club, you know, in the country that is just being born. And and it's a great social gathering. Think about this. 35,000 Americans that sign up for citizenship as well.

Vit Jedlicka 00:39:22 We've got a small consulate in every bigger state, or at least a representative person. The branch, for example, here is representing liberals in Washington, D.C. so we've got a nice network of nice guys all around the place, and then a potential big supportive network with all of these people that sign up for citizenship.

Keith Weinhold 00:39:41 Now, how do you get the word out about libertarians so that people can get interested? Of course, we are an example of this right now, as our audience is learning about liberal land and the pros and cons of this concept of a potential condition. How do others learn about it?

Vit Jedlicka 00:39:55 There were articles written in Liberal, and I believe in more than 40,000 different medias actually, so we were pretty heavily covered in past. I believe more than 1 or 2 billion people learned about it through the media outreach, but the word is also spreading from person to person. Like people like it. They get on board their friends, their families. It's kind of exciting to see that.

Keith Weinhold 00:40:18 What about the language in the culture that you see developing here? Will it feel European just based on its geographic proximity? Is that what you foresee, or does it have more to do with where the inhabitants come from?

Vit Jedlicka 00:40:31 The English, of course, is number one language, but we are also developing liberal English out of all the mistakes that we make in English, that makes the language a little bit difficult to learn and understand.

Keith Weinhold 00:40:41 Americans have to learn English.

Vit Jedlicka 00:40:43 We've got a quite nice culture there, which is, of course mixture of the local Slavic culture with this international make sense nowadays, people, a lot of people from Scandinavia that are moving in. I think we've got a very good German group now coming. There is quite a few Americans that are being involved. It's quite difficult, for example, for Americans to stay liberal. And right now we have to improve our relationship with Croatia because Americans are being banned from actually, for some strange reason.

Keith Weinhold 00:41:15 Okay, still some antagonism with your neighbor Croatia. That's kind of.

Vit Jedlicka 00:41:20 The situation.

Keith Weinhold 00:41:20 In Croatia has created some access problems as well. Tell us about that.

Vit Jedlicka 00:41:25 Well, there's been solved. Last year we when we we we came in to liberalize with more than 60 people at the same time. So they had no means of preventing that access. And since that time actually have free entry in an hour of liberalized. We have a small border crossing there with the with the Croatian police and kind of agreement that we can pass in and out, which is nice.

Keith Weinhold 00:41:46 Try to keep things smooth with Croatia there on the one side of Liberal and here this new Start-Up nation. And we're talking with president Vit here of Liberal. And are there any last things that people need to know about liberalism before I ask how they can go to your website and learn more? Are there any just other last things I think we should know?

Vit Jedlicka 00:42:05 It's a great opportunity to visit now with these two festivals. Those are nice social gatherings. It's the floating metal festival in August. That's the way.

Keith Weinhold 00:42:14 Man. Like the Burning Man.

Vit Jedlicka 00:42:15 Yeah, about the float. That's floating, man. Because we're on Danube. And then there is the Liverpool Echo, which is a major international festival that has moved on this year, which is based on an article, a famous Mexican festival that will be a probably the biggest cultural event this year.

Keith Weinhold 00:42:33 Well, literally. And be a success if it is a net exporter rather than a net importer, because it's difficult to have sectors for everything from industry to agriculture in Beyblade.

Vit Jedlicka 00:42:46 Well, our biggest export is freedom. Ideas like it's like Chile spreading like wildfire. think about it. Like for two months we had the biggest immigration in the world. We go to the United States, where there was more people applying for citizenship of liberal. And then there were applicants for green cards in the United States. The idea itself, it's something that the time has come. There is amazing interest in building new countries, building free countries. And right now I can see that we are on the right track when people like Canada are pushing for transparency through blockchain, because we know what they are talking about. We have already done it and we are applying it in the real world.

Keith Weinhold 00:43:24 Well, it's an interesting experiment in this way. You, the listener of the viewer, you can follow it as an experiment, as an example of what to not do or what to do as live land develops. Why don't you let our audience know how they can learn more about it?

Vit Jedlicka 00:43:42 Fairly easy to apply for citizenship.

Vit Jedlicka 00:43:44 You can first become your resident and then come and help some different means. Or you just directly go for the citizenship. It's an investment of $10,000 or donation of $10,000. And you become a member of of our community with the passport and with the right contacts to the right people. That will really help you to get the best out of the community.

Keith Weinhold 00:44:04 Well, I don't have a great chat with a national president every day, but I sure did today. Thanks so much for your time. It's been interesting learning about liberalism. Thank you very much.

Vit Jedlicka 00:44:15 Made me think UK and I hope to see you a liberal one.

Keith Weinhold 00:44:17 Maybe you will. It sounds like a donation of ten K gets you a liberal and passport. Like I said earlier, as of March 1200 people had paid up to that amount for the passport. Music festivals and conferences in Libya. In the next few months, that could be a way to check it out. Now, it's certainly something I'd need to know more about before I could either endorse it or reject it.

Keith Weinhold 00:44:48 Citizenship in Libya planned to get more of the skeptic side. The criticism I would visit the Libyan Wikipedia page and get ready for some dismissal of its diplomatic recognition there. Then you can visit Libre Land Oregon, learn more about citizenship status, the passport actually helping with the construction of the territory and earning libre land merits, which is a cryptocurrency. If you find it interesting, it's a matter for you to do some deep due diligence on next week. The King of Commercial Real Estate will be here with us. Until then, host Keith Wendell. Don't quit your day, Adrian.

Speaker 6 00:45:31 Nothing on this show should be considered specific, personal or professional advice. Please consult an appropriate tax, legal, real estate, financial, or business professional for individualized advice. Opinions of guests are their own. Information is not guaranteed. All investment strategies have the potential for profit or loss. The host is operating on behalf of yet Rich education LLC exclusively.

Keith Weinhold 00:45:59 The preceding program was brought to you by your home for wealth building. Get rich education.com.

Direct download: GREepisode512_.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 4:00am EST

Mon, 22 July 2024

Coming to you from FreedomFest in Las Vegas, I talk with Founder Mark Skousen. He’s been named one of the World’s Top 20 Living Economists.

Also, an event summary with GRE Investment Coach, Naresh.

Learn about the deleterious consequences of rent control. President Joe Biden supports it (somewhat).

If four tenants live in identical fourplex units, it actually makes sense for them to pay different rent amounts. I explain.

We can construct more housing by relaxing zoning requirements in the right way—reduce off-street parking requirements, increase ADUs, no rent control, reduce minimum lawn sizes.

There’s higher homelessness in L.A., San Francisco, and Austin than Houston. Houston has a lower-cost market, few zoning requirements, and less NIMBY mindset.

Politicians run on platforms like immigration, abortion, and inflation. But they don’t run on reducing the debt because they don’t see it as a problem that they created.

At FreedomFest, I attended a presidential debate between the current candidates of the Libertarian Party, Green Party, and Constitution Party. Most or all agreed that the Fed should be abolished.

The common theme at FreedomFest was: “Government, get out of the way.”

Resources mentioned:

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Complete episode transcript:

Keith Weinhold** ((00:00:01)) - - Welcome to GRE. I'm Keith Weinhold. I'm here at the world's largest gathering of free minds. It's a conference called Freedom Fest where I talk to the conference founder. He's been named one of the top 20 living economists in the world today, as well as a talk with one of our great investment coaches to learn what my conference takeaways are and more. Freedom, life, liberty and the pursuit of real estate and investing today. And get rich education.

Robert Syslo** ((00:00:36)) - - Since 2014, the powerful get Rich education podcast has created more passive income for people than nearly any other show in the world. This show teaches you how to earn strong returns from passive real estate, investing in the best markets without losing your time being a flipper or landlord. Show host Keith Weinhold writes for both Forbes and Rich Dad Advisors advisors and delivers a new show every week. Since 2014, there's been millions of listeners downloads and 188 world nations. He has A-list show guests include top selling personal finance author Robert Kiyosaki. Get Rich education can be heard on every podcast platform, plus has had its own dedicated Apple and Android listener.

Robert Syslo** ((00:01:10)) - - Phone apps build wealth on the go with the get Rich education podcast. Sign up now for the get Rich education podcast or visit get Rich education.com.

Corey Coates** ((00:01:21)) - - You're listening to the show that has created more financial freedom than nearly any show in the world. This is get rich education.

Keith Weinhold** ((00:01:37)) - - We're gonna go from Oswego, New York to Lake Oswego, Oregon, and across 188 nations worldwide. I'm Keith, while you are inside, get rich education. I'm attending a free office live and in person in Las Vegas today. One key economic freedom and what makes a free market free is that ability for producers and suppliers and landlords to set prices based on what the market will bear, whether that's a high price or a low price. Now, what's wrong with rent control, which is a law that puts a ceiling on the amount of rent that you're allowed to charge? Well, that sounds like a nice thing to do for one set of people in the short term. Well, rent control has the same effect as price controls on consumer goods.

Keith Weinhold** ((00:02:30)) - - If the government thinks that cars are becoming too expensive, and they set up a new law that says that you can't charge more than $20,000 if you want to sell a new car, well, then those manufacturers will stop producing cars and soon enough, you, the consumer, cannot buy a car. You'd no longer have an automobile market at all. And the consumer suffers under no choice and even austerity. Put price controls on beef jerky and companies will stop making beef jerky. Put price controls on rent called rent control, and landlords have zero incentive to provide property, no motivation to improve property. And there is a raft just reams of evidence and studies out there that show that rent control, that is a surefire way to then reduce the supply of functional housing, just like the supply of cars or beef jerky would get cut. That's especially not a good solution in today's real estate supply constrained world. And, you know, here's what's interesting. The government created the inflation in the first place. That led to the high price problem that they think they can cure through rent control.

Keith Weinhold** ((00:03:52)) - - I mean, government keeps trying to solve a problem that they created. Well, just take a new course, a new direction and stop the inflation. In that way, you'll cure the higher prices long term and then near term. What you can do is relax zoning requirements in order to create more housing. I mean, in three cases here, less government cures the problems, no inflation, no rent control, and thirdly, no stringent zoning. Knock down all three of those walls and instead, now what have you done? You've encouraged a bunch of builders to come into a market. You've encouraged competition. And what does competition do? It increases quality and it yeah, lowers prices. So cure the problem by knocking down the walls. You know, you as a landlord, I don't even think that there should be laws that say that you have got to charge every ten at the same rent amount. Yeah, and that is even if each one of your tenants has seemingly an identical unit, say, in a fourplex building.

Keith Weinhold** ((00:05:04)) - - Now I'm on different fourplex buildings and I have most everyone like throughout history, I've had just about every tenant paid different rent amounts in the same building, even though all of the units were built at the same time and had the same square footage. Now a real estate investing newcomer, you know, they might think that that sounds unfair, that these tenants with basically identical units paying different rent amounts. But we all know how it works in practice, in real life. I mean, one of those four tenants might have the front unit with the best views, while the tenant with the best view. Well, of course they're going to be willing to pay more for that unit. Well, that right there, that's free market supply and demand. The fourplex unit with the best view will rent out faster and for more. But instead of that arrangement, if it's mandated, say, by the government that everyone in the building must pay the same rent, say that each of the four units must pay exactly $2,000.

Keith Weinhold** ((00:06:07)) - - Oh, well, then the tenant with the worst view, which then has less benefit to living there, has to subsidize the tenant with the best view that already has the best benefit of living there, because they must all pay exactly $2,000. And then what about things like several months from now? Say you have a vacancy at Christmas. Well, it's hard to get a tenant to move at Christmas to get them in there. So you'll charge a low rent just to get someone in there then. Versus how you charge more now in summertime, because tenants demand units, a lot of them want to get settled in during the summer before the school year starts. What about a tenants living in your fourplex or rental single family home for five years, and their unit hasn't been painted or renovated in a while, and the tenant has seen you already. Well, they're probably going to pay less then a new tenant will in there say freshly painted unit. So my point is that even making every tenant of one individual fourplex building have to pay the same rent amount.

Keith Weinhold** ((00:07:10)) - - Well, that is a form of rent control and that is actually unfair if they all have to pay the same rent amount. The free market is what's fair and enables a system of rent price discovery, instead of being confined and oppressed under rent control. Now here, the Freedom Fest in Las Vegas and we'll discuss the conference more. Today I attended one panel discussion. It was called How the Government Created the Housing Crisis and what we can do to Fix it, And it really gave specific solutions to provide more housing. This includes things like stop mandating a minimum square area for parking spaces. Stop mandating such large lawns. Instead, people can share a public park and relax the requirements that have so many easements out of property. Well, all that stuff is zoning in its stifles development and it leads to higher housing prices. Now, I maintain that not all zoning is bad. I don't think that you want a housing development surrounded by factories with smokestacks. So it's about relaxing zoning in the right way and promoting the right policies, like the benefits of a yimby movement.

Keith Weinhold** ((00:08:27)) - - Yes, in my backyard. Removing off street parking mandates altogether and allowing more ADUs allow Single-Family homes on smaller lot sizes. And we've already seen some of that. We're seeing home builders do more of that. They're building single family homes closer together, smaller lot sizes. But a lot of the wrong strategies exist out there. And once people get the benefits, like the beneficiaries of these wrong strategies, I mean, they don't want to give them up. Like New York's rent stabilization program that gives rent breaks to wealthy New Yorkers that also have a pricey home out in the Hamptons. Well, that's not the right policy. That's not helping the people that need it most. And you know, when the wrong policies infiltrate a market, the reaction can be amazingly rapid. I mean, how rapid? Like, do you think you would see a construction project literally halt mid construction? Yeah. You actually can like construction cranes just stop swinging. In Saint Paul, Minnesota, you saw construction cranes stop mid-air mid construction.

Keith Weinhold** ((00:09:38)) - - When Saint Paul moved toward a rent control of no more than 3% annual rent increases. Well, that's a form of rent control. When that happens, building stops because the developer knows that people don't want to buy those units or invest in those units or rent those units. And I've got more to discuss on housing shortly, but let's bring in the very founder, host and producer of Freedom Fest here. He has been named as one of the top 20 living economists in the world. Doctor Mark Skosan and you will hear some background noise in these conference interviews. We are at a conference at times. We're in the exhibit hall now. Interestingly, here with Mark, I bring up with him how much I dislike these political labels that just divide the nation. I mean, don't you agree that it would be great if the nation were less divided? Yes, we all would. Well, we can do our part by avoiding saying words like red and blue and oh, you know, I can't stand those maps.

Keith Weinhold** ((00:10:44)) - - Then you see, I've mentioned this to you before. You see these maps in political season that show where the red states are and where the blue states are. I mean, how divisive and polarizing that is not unifying in the United States of America. The fact that this conference has a non divisive founder like Mark Skosan is what attracted me here. Sure enough, here you'll hear me tell him how much I appreciate this. This was prescient because the very next day after this interview that you're about to hear, that was the assassination attempt on former President Donald Trump. Hey, it's Keith Reinhold here. I'm at Freedom Fest with Freedom Fest host and founder Mark Scott. And thanks for having us here. Yeah. My pleasure, my pleasure. Thank you for coming. Well, I've got to tell you one reason that attracted me to this conference. I was concerned that it was going to be too politically partisan. And I respect you so much, because I know you have said that in most of all the books you've read, you've avoided these labels like liberal, conservative, left, right, red, blue, yes, progressive, conservative and all that.

Keith Weinhold** ((00:11:58)) - - So that's what I'd like hearing when we talk about this conference championing principles of freedom and liberty. What does an American really need to know about freedom and liberty that's under attack today?

Mark Skousen** ((00:12:09)) - - I think what we've tried to preach is the Adam Smith model, which you call the system of natural liberty. And what that meant was under the rule of law and justice and a robust competitive model. You've maximized the freedom of choice, freedom to choose your own work, your own business, how much salary you're going to charge or wages you're going to pay, whether you can hire or fire people. So within those rules, within those guidelines, you have maximum security. But in today's world, more and more everything, it's either being prohibited or mandated. So we're being squeezed from both sides. The idea of freedom of best to maximize freedom is for us to come together and find out what are the best solutions to improve our lives is the idea. So we talk philosophy, history, science and technology, healthy living, economics, politics.

Mark Skousen** ((00:13:05)) - - It's all part of the program here. But it's not just a political conference.

Keith Weinhold** ((00:13:08)) - - Part of this is lowering the guardrails and promoting free markets. The only thing that we've all seen happen in free markets is inflation, oftentimes ironically, created by some of those forces that put guardrails in place. So what does an investor there are a lot of investors here. Oh yeah. What does an investor need to know with regard to inflation today. How can the everyday person respond.

Mark Skousen** ((00:13:33)) - - So one thing is we have a whole section on financial freedom because without financial freedom you're limited in what you can do and your influence that you can have. So this is very important. We live in an era of permanent inflation. Since World War two we've had permanent inflation. We didn't used to, but now we do because we're off the gold standard. We've adopted Keynesian economics, which means deficit spending all the time. We have adopted the dollar rather than gold. So we've lost that discipline. The fed is the engine of inflation. And they even have a policy of a minimum of at least 2% inflation rate.

Mark Skousen** ((00:14:10)) - - We had a whole session. Actually Steve Forbes wasn't there, but Nathan Lewis is co-author of in the book inflation. We had a big session on what are the best inflation hedges. So we talk about gold and silver. The stock market, Bitcoin rallies, high bonds, real estate. We had all of those discussion. And that was the great thing about Freedom Fest is that you really do get answers and best solutions. At our conference, I attended that particular. Oh you did? Yeah.

Keith Weinhold** ((00:14:38)) - - From Freedom Fest.

Mark Skousen** ((00:14:39)) - - I've really.

Keith Weinhold** ((00:14:40)) - - Enjoyed this.

Mark Skousen** ((00:14:41)) - - So far. We have an exhibit hall.

Keith Weinhold** ((00:14:42)) - - Which happens to be right. Oh yeah, we have breakout sessions that attendees can go to for the sessions that particularly interest. There are then a big general session where I've enjoyed presentations from Robert Kiyosaki to Ice-T. What is the future potential for getting Fest attendees? What would you like to tell them about what this conference entails? What they can.

Mark Skousen** ((00:15:03)) - - Expect in the.

Keith Weinhold** ((00:15:03)) - - Bank that they can.

Mark Skousen** ((00:15:04)) - - Get? Well, one of the things is just the wonderful camaraderie that you feel, the buzz that you feel the meeting of like minded people who are all trying to seek best solutions rather than labels and attacking people.

Mark Skousen** ((00:15:18)) - - And, we have the presidential debate here, for example. Well, we have all the third parties come together libertarians, the Constitution Party, the Green Party. We have RFK coming. The two major parties decided not to come. So, so much for their belief in democracy. But the idea is there's a there's something for everybody here. You want to improve your lifestyle, you want to prove your financial situation. You want to have better clarity on what is the proper role of government. Read about this A conference for you. This is an annual event that we usually have in the summer in Las Vegas and then other cities, and it's only 3 or 4. You know, we live busy lives, so can we come together once a year to learn to network, to socialize and celebrate liberty? I think we can if we plan ahead. When we.

Keith Weinhold** ((00:16:06)) - - Drop these labels, we can get a clear download of sorts, remove filters.

Mark Skousen** ((00:16:11)) - - And think.

Keith Weinhold** ((00:16:12)) - - Clearly. And this is a largest gathering.

Mark Skousen** ((00:16:15)) - - Of.

Keith Weinhold** ((00:16:15)) - - Free minds. So for Mark Skelton I'm Keith Weigel. You heard Mark Skelton mentioned the presidential debate at Freedom Fest. I watched quite a bit of that. More on it later. Gray Investment coach narration is here in person with me at Freedom Fest. Coming up, he and I give you a download of some policy and real estate investing highlights that you can learn from. That's straight ahead. I'm Keith Reinhold, you're listening to get Rich education. Hey, you can get your mortgage loans at the same place where I get mine at Ridge Lending Group Nmls 42056. They provided our listeners with more loans than any provider in the entire nation because they specialize in income properties, they help you build a long term plan for growing your real estate empire with leverage. You can start your prequalification and chat with President Ridge personally. Start now while it's on your mind at Ridge Lending Group. Com that's Ridge Lending group.com. And Your bank is getting rich off of you. The national average bank account pays less than 1% on your savings.

Keith Weinhold** ((00:17:28)) - - If your money isn't making 4%, you're losing your hard earned cash to inflation. Let the liquidity fund help you put your money to work with minimum risk. Your cash generates up to an 8% return with compound interest year in and year out, instead of earning less than 1% sitting in your bank account, the minimum investment is just 25 K. You keep getting paid until you decide you want your money back there. Decade plus track record proves they've always paid their investors 100% in full and on time. And I would know, because I'm an investor, to earn 8%. Hundreds of others are. Text. Family to 66866. Learn more about Freedom Family Investments Liquidity Fund on your journey to financial freedom through passive income. Text family to 66866.

T. Harv Eker** ((00:18:23)) - - This is the millionaire mind trick. You're listening to the powerful get Rich education with Keith Weingarten.

Speaker UU** ((00:18:29)) - - Don't quit your day dream.

Keith Weinhold** ((00:18:39)) - - Hey, we're here talking about Freedom Fest, and I'm doing that alongside gray investment coach. The race. Hey, welcome in the race. Hey, Keith.

Keith Weinhold** ((00:18:47)) - - We are here in real life at Freedom Fest in Las Vegas, Nevada. And what Freedom Fest does is it promotes and champions the ideals of freedom in the United States, and it includes a bunch of guest speakers that have made appearances here that you got to see in person, from Ice-T to Robert Kiyosaki to a bunch of presidential candidates as well, sometimes not championing principles of things like freedom and tolerance and liberty and tyranny. And I think anyone can agree to freedom on a this basis. But when you think it through and where the discussion really begins is, oh, well, if you have freedom, does that mean you should be free to do anything at all that you want? Probably not. And that's quite a discussion or tolerance. That's an ideal. That sounds good, but oh does that mean you should tolerate absolutely anything? No probably not. So that's where a lot of the interesting policy decisions and a lot of the interesting debates come in here in the race. And I attended some of these presentations together and other ones separately.

Keith Weinhold** ((00:19:53)) - - So we have some different perspectives on what we've learned here at Freedom Fest. Grace, why don't you tell us about some of the good takeaways that you had? I had a lot of good takeaways, Keith.

Mark Skousen** ((00:20:03)) - - This is not just about freedom in the United States. It's about freedom around the world. And you even interviewed and I believe we're playing that interview soon. If you haven't already played it yet, you interviewed probably the freest nation in the world. It's a brand new nation and it's called liberalism, like liberty, land libre land in Europe. And it touts itself as the freest nation in the world. So there have been all sorts of topics happening or talked about from business, finance, economics, real estate, crypto, bitcoin, gold to non-business and financial topics, which I actually found more interesting simply because.

Keith Weinhold** ((00:20:46)) - - Most of what I listen to and what.

Mark Skousen** ((00:20:48)) - - Is business finance econ. I wanted something a little bit different, especially as a father of two young boys. There were topics on gender and sexuality.

Keith Weinhold** ((00:21:01)) - - And.

Mark Skousen** ((00:21:02)) - - Vaccinations being the vaccinated versus unvaccinated. Robert F Kennedy was the keynote speaker at this conference, and he's a major presidential candidate.

Keith Weinhold** ((00:21:12)) - - RL Jr RFK.

Mark Skousen** ((00:21:14)) - - Jr. Even though he's not part of a major party, he's probably the most popular third party candidate over the last 30 years, so he's a candidate. There were lectures on healthcare.

Keith Weinhold** ((00:21:28)) - - And.

Mark Skousen** ((00:21:29)) - - How to be a better patient. And hold your doctor and hold the healthcare system accountable. The other aspect of this conference is there are some heavy hitters just walking around freely. Like I met Matt Ridley easily, I met Robert Kiyosaki, just he was dressed in very casual clothing to where people didn't even recognize them. And I did and told him how much I appreciated him. You know, you and the great podcast and huge inspiration for me. Yeah, people like Kiyosaki walking around freely, presidential candidates walking around freely, many third party candidates, not just RFK. He wasn't walking around as freely. He was in and out pretty quickly with really heavy security.

Mark Skousen** ((00:22:09)) - - But you had other third party candidates, like the Libertarian Party candidate and the Green Party candidate walking around freely. I ran into Vivek Ramaswamy, his campaign manager, while getting pizza. We are both standing in line getting pizza. We ended up having about almost a two hour lunch. One day talking finance business Vivek's policies his future. So overall this conference very educational, inside the classroom, very beneficial outside the classroom. We're going to bring some guests on the great podcast. We met at this conference, publicists who we met at this conference who represent good guests, some business development opportunities, maybe some not just good guests, but people who we would recommend their newsletters, maybe even outside of the real estate industry, people, contacts within the real estate industry. So it's not all about what you learn in the classroom. It's also about who you meet, the networking, the business development. Overall, just a really, really successful experience. There were a few.

Keith Weinhold** ((00:23:11)) - - Shows that snagged me as a guest while here as well.

Keith Weinhold** ((00:23:15)) - - I'm talking about American freedom here chiefly. But you did mention Lebanon, a startup nation between Croatia and Serbia. That's seven square kilometers in area. You know, I think there are a lot of people at a conference like this and just anywhere in society where if you ask them, well, hey, if you think you could run the nation better if you were starting it all over again, how would you start a nation from a clean slate and actually got an opportunity to do that? Well, I'll be interviewing the president of Lebanon here, where this country is trying to seek recognition from any nation. They want to start their own country, and they want to do freedom and really begin a country of their rights.

Mark Skousen** ((00:23:55)) - - And see is, is is.

Keith Weinhold** ((00:23:57)) - - Is is.

Mark Skousen** ((00:23:57)) - - Bitcoin I think not just crypto but it's bitcoin. And it's interesting because you hear a lot of times you don't like the country that you live in, go somewhere else. These people took it to a whole new level and said, well, we're just going to start our own country.

Mark Skousen** ((00:24:10)) - - And and it's about three square miles. So it's about the size of the area that I lived in. Tampa, not even Tampa, just almost the neighborhood that I live in, Tampa. So it's not a huge country, but it's interesting talking to them. And as you'll hear in the interview, hearing about what it's like to start a new country and there's a lot that you have to go, you know, there's a lot of fundraising if you want to call it that, that you have to do. It's it's a lot it's bigger than the business.

Keith Weinhold** ((00:24:37)) - - You'll learn more about that on an upcoming episode of the show with the nation of Berlin. I attended a presentation called A Forgotten Solution to the Housing Crunch. Most people think of real estate development is either single family homes or multifamily properties. This espoused the building of light touch density of 2 to 4 unit properties, and how that increases the density. But it maintains character. And they showed an awful lot of photos in the presentation where from a street, a four unit building can actually like a single family home when it has the right design and therefore you don't get this NIMBYism pushback.

Keith Weinhold** ((00:25:16)) - - I saw a number of smart design examples of that. And you know what this does? Will this help keep the cost of housing down in an area? What it allows for in a society is it allows the children who grew up in an area to afford the housing there without being priced out. Also called this multifamily missing middle 2 to 4 unit housing. You don't have the NIMBYism pushback that you do with multifamily housing. There are an awful lot of opinions here about people that want to avoid rent control, about how that's typically the bad policy. And many likened rent control to bombing American cities over time because landlords don't have an incentive to improve anything. So rent control is not a good solution to increasing the housing supply. And a lot of the discussion was how you get politicians to say no to rent control, sharing with them. Cato Institute studies on how the free market really makes for a higher housing supply, because that makes developers want to come into the market. And it was noted in one of the panel discussions about rent control and about providing more affordable housing.

Keith Weinhold** ((00:26:27)) - - But if there's a four unit building of owners of all four units of that building, how that's deemed as less threatening than if there's a four unit building of renters.

Mark Skousen** ((00:26:38)) - - So question for you, the housing panels that you attended were these people, were they private investors or they worked for private equity companies? I think maybe a documentary filmmaker who does real estate documentary, what was their background?

Keith Weinhold** ((00:26:50)) - - Think tanks and yes, a documentary filmmaker of a film called Shabbat Vacation. And I did not get to see the film about the perils and ills of rent control on Shabbat vacation. But I talked with one of the people that worked on the project and basically that movie. It does glorify the landlord that was brought up. And typically in popular culture, you don't glorify the landlord. I mean, the landlord is kind of the beleaguered party in this, and it was critical of rent control there. And so it's helping to spread an awareness of how that really doesn't help the housing supply. Quantity work quality over time. I attended another presentation.

Keith Weinhold** ((00:27:33)) - - It was called Homelessness California versus Texas and Homelessness. Of course, it's a multifaceted problem. There are a number of reasons that it occurs, but they really brought up that it often results from the loss of family connection a lot more often than what some people think. And it really brought to light that Houston has a lower proportion of homelessness in L.A. and San Francisco does. What are the reason this that that is the case. And that is because Houston has a lower proportion of homelessness, because it's a lower cost to build there, and Houston has way fewer zoning requirements, you see, almost like a hodgepodge of building across Houston. You have substantially less NIMBYism in Houston. You just have a culture there that doesn't push back on buildings. So those are really some of the key parallels between why the homelessness crisis is worse in California than it is in Texas. In most places, Austin actually has policies that are so agricultural to the rest of Texas, giving Austin a somewhat higher homelessness rate.

Mark Skousen** ((00:28:38)) - - Wow, that's a lot of real estate content that you got there.

Mark Skousen** ((00:28:42)) - - Anything else? Keith?

Keith Weinhold** ((00:28:44)) - - Another presentation I attended was called Permanent Rising Prices. What are the best inflation hedges? And, you know, for a while they didn't even put real estate up there as one of them. And I was almost foaming at the mouth getting ready to ask a question. But they did bring in real estate at the end. When it comes to inflation. Many of them brought up the fact that we have multi-trillion dollar deficits even when we're in good times. I had never thought of it that way before. If most people would look at the history of the world and what's happening with the nation while they're running multi-trillion dollar deficits, they probably think that they're trending toward poverty and austerity. But that's not the case. This is what's happening in good times. And politicians, they really don't run on a platform of reducing our debt. You notice that none of the politicians do that. Instead, you see politicians run on platforms like immigration or the housing shortage or abortion. But, you know, politicians, they don't run on a platform of reducing our debt.

Keith Weinhold** ((00:29:42)) - - And that's because they all see it as a problem that they didn't create, and they don't really want to work their way out of it either. So that's why it doesn't come up. Also, with the best inflation hedges, they showed the rank of asset performance for the last 200 years of five items stocks, bonds, treasury bills, gold and the dollar. And really it was coming down to two guys debating on whether stocks or gold were better. They both made their case either way. And they didn't bring in real estate until the end. But when they brought in real estate, they broad brushstroke and do what so many do, and they just looked at it as an asset class in what is its capital appreciation over time. Yeah. And you know, they didn't separate out income property as its own class like we would. But some of the panelists, they did not like real estate. They talked about how it's not liquid, about how you have to borrow funds, about how there's a maintenance burden and a repair burden with real estate, and you have tenants and management and some things like that.

Mark Skousen** ((00:30:40)) - - Fair, all fair.

Keith Weinhold** ((00:30:41)) - - All fair points. And one panelist brought up that gold has outperformed the gold mining stocks just historically over time. So those are some of the inflation hedges and some of the other issues with inflation that you don't think about very much as you have policy advocates and politicians addressing.

Mark Skousen** ((00:30:57)) - - Well, I'll say gold mining stocks and most traders will tell you traders by gold mining stocks, not investors. So gold mining stocks are meant to be held over the short term. They are not meant to be held over a long period of time like physical tangible gold is. So for people to say, oh yeah, gold outperforms gold stocks over a 30 year period. That's true. But most people are buying gold stocks Like gold mining, stocks are only holding over a short period of time.

Keith Weinhold** ((00:31:29)) - - Well, housing and inflation were such widespread themes here since it has been such a problem, much of it wrought by the pandemic. As we wind down here summarizing what we've experienced at our first Freedom Fest, for each of us, have any last thoughts with respect to housing and inflation since they were such overarching themes?

Mark Skousen** ((00:31:49)) - - Well, the common theme here at Freedom Fest was government got out of the way because if you let the free market work itself out, if you let people be, people work themselves out.

Mark Skousen** ((00:32:01)) - - But the onus on people to take personal responsibility, that in and of itself solves the inflation problem because you don't have government restrictions, government mandates, and And this was a major topic and that was the lockdowns of 2020. The mandatory vaccine mandates of 2021, those were all inflationary because when you have people fired from their jobs or dropping out, quitting their jobs because they didn't want to take this job, that means prices are higher and lower. Workforce means you have to pay the whoever is there higher wages. And that's what ended up happening. So it's not just about dollars and cents. It's something as simple as getting a job caused inflation. And ultimately when inflation goes up, of course that's going to affect rents, that's going to affect housing. There was a major savings rate, which I'm sure you covered in 2020, where people were saving money, being locked down at home. And once things started opening up, that money was spent and that created inflation. And people, as soon as they could get out of their house said, hey, I want to move to Florida, or I want to move to Texas or Utah or where we are here in Nevada.

Mark Skousen** ((00:33:10)) - - And that's why housing values exploded. So the inflation was caused by government. It wasn't just the government spending. It was actual psychological and physical things that the government or the policies of the government did that created an inflation. The government spending, the low Federal Reserve interest rates are just a piece of the pie, or they're just a couple of pieces to the pie. And so it was interesting to learn that all these other areas, all these other, like I said, policies that the government enacted. And that's what Robert F Kennedy Jr, RFK, talked about in his keynote speech. All of these policies affected the purchasing power of our dollar.

Keith Weinhold** ((00:33:53)) - - We have all had more dollars chasing fewer goods and services, one of those being housing itself. Hey, it's been great to meet up here in real life at Freedom Fest this year in a race. I appreciate you sharing your thoughts. Thank you Keith. I'm great. Yeah. Narration I enjoying freedom Fest here. Oh, there's such a wide variety of vendors and viewpoints all around this concept of free thinking, typically with getting government out of the way.

Keith Weinhold** ((00:34:29)) - - In fact, in the exhibit hall, which is right across from where the speaker discussions are, there are booths for gold, real estate, cryptocurrency stocks, a dating app for unvaccinated people, self-directed IRAs, a program for teaching capitalism to school children. There is even a book that espouses biblical capitalist virtues. And then elsewhere in the exhibit hall, atheist virtues. There was also a promoter of a currency called the Nevada Gold Back, and what it is is 1/1000 of an ounce of 24 karat gold. And it is physical like gold back. It looks sort of like a dollar bill, just much, much more in the exhibit hall. Now, one concept that I did not hear any criticism about was Trump tariffs. Tariffs are not free market. In fact, it's akin to erecting a trade wall. And maybe there is a session about it. But there are many sessions going on concurrently and I can't attend them all. And in other sessions I was asked to be a speaker and was interviewed. Like you heard.

Keith Weinhold** ((00:35:45)) - - Doctor Scholes had mentioned there was a presidential debate here. Now the two major party candidates didn't attend. I watched RFK Jr speak here, an independent candidate, and he was not in the presidential debate, though he spoke separately in the security for RFK Jr was formidable, even though he spoke the day before the Trump shooting. The presidential debate was among three different parties. It was Jill Stein at the Green Party, Randall Terry of the Constitution Party, and Libertarian Party candidate Chase Oliver, who is a particularly bright, articulate guy, and most or all of those candidates, they agree that we should end the Federal Reserve. And the presidential debate, interestingly, was moderated by Congressman Thomas Massie, who has more formally proposed ending the fed outside of the presidential debate. I also attended a different session. It was a Bitcoin debate called Will the Bitcoin bubble ever burst? And you had two guys promoting and talking about the virtues of Bitcoin. And then you had two guys criticizing Bitcoin. And one of the two bitcoin critics was Whole Foods founder John Mackey.

Keith Weinhold** ((00:36:58)) - - So this really got interesting. Now I like a lot of the benefits of Bitcoin personally, but I must say in this particular debate the Bitcoin critics decide that Maggie was on. Oh they won this. The proponents best points were the people back in the day said electricity in the internet word feasible. They weren't going to last, but electricity and the internet won and Bitcoin will to the pro camp also espouses that Bitcoin is the first time we've had absolute digital scarcity. You cannot copy and paste bitcoin, but yeah, the critics did a better job. They said that Bitcoin is always made future promises, but it falls short like its awful acceptance rate as a currency. Still today its price levels are dreadfully volatile, just miserably volatile. You can't count on it then as a store of value. John Mackey said that Bitcoin produces no goods, no services and no cash flow. The Bitcoin critics also asked more than once this question how has Bitcoin made anyone's life simpler, easier or better? There really weren't any good answers to that question, and they even critiqued that with its fixed supply at 21 million will, then it cannot grow with the economy.

Keith Weinhold** ((00:38:21)) - - And then what this can do is create deflation and depression. And I would like to adhere myself that each Bitcoin is already divided into 100 million tiny pieces called satoshis. And it might be able to be divided smaller than that eventually. But yeah, the Bitcoin critics won. It is quite a win for bitcoin, in my opinion, that this nascent digital asset that was only worth a few pennies 15 years ago when it came out, I mean, it was something that only cryptographers and digital geeks understood. Well, today you've got presidents discussing bitcoin. So it's certainly had some success just in branding and name recognition alone. That is just about a wrap from Freedom Fest this year here in Las Vegas, there were record breaking temperatures outside in the Mojave Desert in the middle of summer. Inside, it was a celebration of ideals like life, liberty, prosperity, and of course, freedom. Until next week, I'm your host, Keith Wendel. Don't quit your day, dream.

Speaker 6** ((00:39:35)) - - Nothing on this show should be considered specific, personal or professional advice.

Speaker 6** ((00:39:39)) - - Please consult an appropriate tax, legal, real estate, financial or business professional for individualized advice. Opinions of guests are their own. Information is not guaranteed. All investment strategies have the potential for profit or loss the host is operating on behalf of yet Rich education LLC exclusively.

Keith Weinhold** ((00:40:03)) - - The preceding program was brought to you by your home for wealth building. Get rich education.com.

Direct download: GREepisode511_.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 4:00am EST

Mon, 15 July 2024

Learn how garages and parking areas add value to property. Find out how to earn more rent for your garage space.

Adding a garage to a rental doesn’t fetch much more rent income. But you will rent your place faster and tenants stay longer.

To get more rent for a detached garage, rent it to an off-site tenant.

The future of parking and garages is positioned to be shaken by autonomous cars. Fewer people will need to own or park cars.

Meet me in-person at the next New Orleans Investment Conference. It’s November 20th - 23rd, 2024. Register here.

Brien Lundin joins us. He is the host of the world’s longest-running investment conference, the New Orleans Investment Conference. He’s also editor of Gold Newsletter.

He & I discuss inflation, interest rates, real estate, and gold.

Gold is up 20%+ annually. This is because foreign nations, like China, are beginning to prefer to own gold rather than US debt.

There’s a case for interest rates to go higher, another case for them to go lower.

Brien tells us why he believes the gold price will keep rising.

Increasingly, asset values are positively correlated—real estate, stocks, gold, crypto, oil, and even collectibles.

Personally, though I don’t see evidence that gold builds wealth, history shows that it’s a good place to store wealth.

Meet me in-person at the next New Orleans Investment Conference. It’s November 20th - 23rd, 2024. Register here.

Resources mentioned:

Meet me in-person at the next New Orleans Investment Conference. It’s November 20th - 23rd, 2024.

Register here.

For access to properties or free help with a

GRE Investment Coach, start here:

Get mortgage loans for investment property:

RidgeLendingGroup.com or call 855-74-RIDGE

or e-mail: info@RidgeLendingGroup.com

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509: Legendary Investor Jim Rogers' Dire Warning on US Debt

Complete episode transcript:

Keith Weinhold (00:00:01) - Welcome to GRE! I'm your host, Keith Weinhold. Learn about garage real estate, how garages and parking add value to your property, and how to get more rent for the garage. Then we go from micro to macro. As we talk about the enduring value of a real asset that's minted, not printed, and another chance to meet me in person today and Get Rich Education.

Robert Syslo (00:00:27) - Since 2014, the powerful get Rich education podcast has created more passive income for people than nearly any other show in the world. This show teaches you how to earn strong returns from passive real estate, investing in the best markets without losing your time being a flipper or landlord. Show host Keith Weinhold, who writes for both Forbes and Rich Dad Advisors and delivers a new show every week. Since 2014, there's been millions of listeners downloads and 188 world nations. He has A-list show guests include top selling personal finance author Robert Kiyosaki. Get Rich education can be heard on every podcast platform, plus it has its own dedicated Apple and Android listener.

Robert Syslo (00:01:01) - Phone apps build wealth on the go with the get Rich education podcast. Sign up now for the get Rich education podcast or visit get Rich education.com.

Keith Weinhold (00:01:29) - Welcome to GRE! From Saint Augustine, Florida, to Saint Paul, Minnesota, and across 188 nations worldwide. I'm Keith Weinhold, and you're listening to get Rich education as we cover a component of property that's a little talked about, garages and we're a real estate investing show. You learn about ways to optimize the rent income that a garage can produce for you, too. Now, if the home that you currently live in has a garage, it could be the entrance to the home that you use even more often than your own front door. That's how important and useful it's become. And understand that garages on homes, they didn't even exist until about 100 years ago, because that's when cars began to become popular. The emergence of the garage in American real estate is one reason for the downfall of the big front porch. You rarely see big porches on modern homes.

Keith Weinhold (00:02:26) - Interestingly, some of America's most successful companies began in garages, places where you have workbenches and can tinker around with things. Google and Nike were launched in garages, and it's also where people store lots of things, sometimes so many things that they can't even get their car in there anymore. In fact, the word garage comes from the French garage. Spell that g a r e r meaning to store. But yeah, when cars became more popular in the 1920s and 1930s, that's when you begin to see garages. And then as cars got larger, garages got larger. And by the 1960s, as families began to own not just one car but 2 or 3 cars, garages became larger again, and a three car garage is pretty common today in a single family home, though it's rarely that big in a property that you're going to rent out. Now, if you've got a single family home and it does not have a garage and you want to make a garage addition. Well, you can only expect to recoup 65 to 80% of what you've spent.

Keith Weinhold (00:03:40) - So it is a money loser. Then it really doesn't make sense to add one to a rental, perhaps only your primary residence, since you get the benefit of using it yourself that way. And if you add a garage to a rental, you know you just really can't get that much more in rent for it. It's usually not worth it, although the financials can look better for a carport addition instead. Now, if you've got a rental with the garage rather than without one, it actually can help you get your place rented out faster. But a tenants really not going to pay you even as much as 10% more in overall rent in most every case. Yet see, what happens is that a tenant, they tend to fill up the garage with stuff, and therefore they tend to stay longer than if there were no garage. A garage is one reason that single family rentals see longer tenant durations then apartments. Now, if your property though, if it's in a built up area and there's little on street parking, oh well then the addition of a garage that could have more of an impact on the value of your property than it would out in the suburbs.

Keith Weinhold (00:04:53) - The garage does not count toward the square footage of a property because that's considered unfinished space. And your prospective tenant? They might not know that fact about the square footage. So that's something for you to keep in mind when you're advertising a home with a garage for rent. Now, older houses, they're more likely to have a detached garage is its own separate standalone structure that's built near the house. But you would have to walk outdoors in order to get from the house to the detached garage. In fact, the home that I grew up in and that my parents still live in in Pennsylvania has a detached garage. Their home was built around the year 1915, so more than 100 years ago, and my parent's garage also didn't have an automatic garage door opener for most of my life. I remember the big yank up that you'd have to make on the heavy door. So when my mom was about to back out of the garage when she was going to take me somewhere, what I would do is I would stand outdoors until she backed out so that I could open and then close the door by hand and then get in the car.

Keith Weinhold (00:06:06) - Gotta get those legs under it and enjoy one deep squat there, Well, one reason that old houses have garages often detached from the rest of the home is for risk of gasoline explosion. That's because back 100 years ago, gas was stored in the garage because gas stations were yet to be invented. So you've got this trail of detached garages left behind in older neighborhoods, and some people still prefer a detached garage. Now there's a way for you to get more rent income if you're renting out a single family home with a detached garage, and this isn't always going to be feasible based on how the property's set up. But the way to do it is for you to get an off site tenant to rent your garage. Oftentimes, the renter of your single family home, you know, they just don't have as high of an income as someone does that lives in an upper crust neighborhood that might have a lot of toys to store their, be it a boat or an antique car, or even an RV, perhaps.

Keith Weinhold (00:07:13) - Well, that off site renter in the better neighborhood, you know they're going to pay you to store their cars or their other stuff in your detached garage In that case, your rental home and garage would have two separate tenants, and you will enjoy more overall rent income than if one tenant was renting both the home and the detached garage. So what you really want to learn is you do your research though, is what laws cover the renting of a garage or a storage space because they typically fall outside the jurisdiction of landlord and tenant laws. But you need to verify that depending on your state or your area. Sometimes running a garage is the equivalent of renting a warehouse space, and the rules can be different when it comes to payment issues or other problems. And when you realize that some garages can even have dirt floors, you can see how different it is than a living space. Now, even if you're thinking about renting your garage to an offsite tenant. Most of the time making garage upgrades, it's just really not worth it.

Keith Weinhold (00:08:19) - But note that I said most of the time. On the other hand, if you can make it marketable, maybe you need to do something smaller, like add an automatic garage door opener if it doesn't have one, and then you'll have to run the numbers to see if that is worth it. Now, one mistake that I made out of property, it wasn't that first ever seminal fourplex that I owned, but the second fourplex that I owned there in that building, each tenant had a small, simple one car attached garage, and then as each four plex unit went vacant, I went in and painted the inside the walls and ceiling of all four garages with a fresh coat of paint, and I would learn later that was not a good use of my time. It didn't help me get any more in rent. No tenant is really even going to stay longer for fresh garage paint, but frankly, I'm just not a handyman. I don't know how to fix anything. So one of the few ways that I knew how to add value, I thought was rolling a paintbrush over the inside of garage walls like I know how to paint and not much else replacing a faucet.

Keith Weinhold (00:09:29) - Whoa, that right there. We're getting into, like, intimidating territory. Okay for me. In any case, duplexes in fourplex, they can often have garages, especially newer ones. And I think I mentioned to you here on the show before that I once owned an eight plex. It was a little quirky. It had a small single attached garage that was kind of on the end of the building. So eight units and just a one car garage. And actually this is a good example because those tenants, they paid about $1,500 for their unit, so none of them could really swing it. None of them could afford to pay an extra $400 for the garage. So again, the way to solve that is rent to a more affluent off site tenant. That's what I did. And I got 400 bucks. Now, understand something. When you're driving a neighborhood or you're looking on Google Maps, at times it can look like a home has a two car garage because you're only looking at the widths of the garage door.

Keith Weinhold (00:10:29) - But that can really be a three car garage because on one side, the garage bay goes two cars deep, so you can't always tell how many cars a garage can hold just by looking at the width of the garage door. One reason that developers in Hoa's actually like garages that are too deep is that way. The driveway is more narrow. When driveways are more narrow, that means there's less asphalt and more green space in neighborhoods. Now, in some places, it doesn't matter too much if the garage is full of stuff and you have to park in the driveway, but in a cold, snowy place, it really helps to park cars inside the garage. So garages are typically more valuable to residents in areas that have real winters. In an apartment building, it can help to have assigned spaces for tenants. When I bought apartments, I've always loved it to my property manager to figure out the space assignments and rental property. Upgrading and resurfacing parking areas is another money loser. Now, we don't want to be slumlords, but the truth is repaving and re striping a parking lot that might look nice.

Keith Weinhold (00:11:44) - You might do that. but the reality is that it will get you practically zero extra rent. Not a good ROI. Well, that's a take on garage's past and present. What about the future of garages and parking areas when it comes to the future? And this harkens back to episode 13 of this show. Yes, that's when I discussed driverless cars, also known as autonomous cars. Back in January of 2015, nine and a half years ago. Well, when autonomous cars become popular, which many expect will still happen, it's likely that fewer people are going to own cars at all. They will just have a car subscription. The autonomous car will pick you up and drop you off, and more people will convert their garages into living space like another bedroom. If that does indeed eventually happen. But autonomous car adoption has hit roadblocks since episode 13 of this show back in 2015, and that's generally because autonomous cars keep having accidents. Although Waymo is perhaps the one company that's made more headway lately, you're seeing their autonomous taxis in use in some cities right now.

Keith Weinhold (00:13:03) - Currently, a car spends 95% of its life being parked, but garages, parking lots, and parking garages are all poised to be less useful when fewer people own a car. Instead, these autonomous cars are just going to drop you off, pick you up, and then constantly stay moving. Stay out on the road rather than park at all. EVs are a factor here to electric vehicles. They can be thousands of pounds heavier than the average gas powered vehicle, and experts out there are warning that the extra weight from EVs that could cause older parking garages to collapse unless steps are taken to buttress those structures. I mean, that's a problem. If geotechnical and structural engineers didn't design EVs on older parking garages decades and decades ago parking lots, they have definitely fallen out of favor among some, but they are still building lots of them. Critics say that to have to build minimum parking spaces on new projects, well, that hinders new housing construction, and also encourages people to drive rather than take public transit parking lot.

Keith Weinhold (00:14:18) - Critics. They also argue that parking lots and garages, they fill up precious urban real estate with these sort of soulless, concrete eyesores, making cities more sprawling and less convenient. And you tend to see this more in cities west of the Mississippi River. In the east, you have more cities on gridded street patterns that are more dense because they were laid out and developed before cars took over and sprawled so many cities, but with as many changes that autonomous vehicles could bring to the parking world and make things like car ownership less important and car parking less important, I sure would ask a lot of questions before I invested in any sort of parking related real estate. Today we've been talking about real estate in the micro so far today. Garages and parking surely will pivot to the macro as we discuss an asset that's minted not printed. That's next. I'm Keith Weinhold, you're listening to episode 510 of get Rich education. Listen to this. Hey, you can get your mortgage loans at the same place where I get mine at Ridge Lending Group Nmls 42056.

Keith Weinhold (00:15:36) - They provided our listeners with more loans than any provider in the entire nation. Because they specialize in income properties, they help you build a long term plan for growing your real estate empire. With leverage, you can start your prequalification and chat with President Ridge personally. Start now while it's on your mind at Ridge Lending group.com. That's Ridge Lending group.com. And your bank is getting rich off of you. The national average bank account pays less than 1% on your savings. If your money isn't making 4%, you're losing your hard earned cash to inflation. Let the liquidity fund help you put your money to work with minimum risk. Your cash generates up to an 8% return with compound interest year in and year out. Instead of earning less than 1% sitting in your bank account, the minimum investment is just 25 K. You keep getting paid until you decide you want your money back there. Decade plus track record proves they've always paid their investors 100% in full and on time. And I would know, because I'm an investor, to earn 8%.

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Robert Kiyosaki (00:17:08) - This is our rich dad, poor dad author Robert Kiyosaki. Listen to get Rich education with Keith wine old and there is I respect Kate is a very strong, smart, bright young man.

Keith Weinhold (00:17:26) - It's terrific to welcome into the show a man with decades of investment analysis experience that we can learn from. He's the executive editor of Gold Newsletter, and you might know him as host of America's longest running investment conference, the famed New Orleans Investment Conference. Hey, we haven't shedded in a minute. Welcome in Brien Lundin.

Brien Lundin (00:17:48) - Right? To be able to keep it has been a while too long.

Keith Weinhold (00:17:51) - That's right. And now you and I each span the real asset world. I'm a real estate guy. You spend a lot of your work in teaching over there on the gold side. And we both intersect with the general economy. And, you know, Brian, I think of the general economy is having a number of abnormalities.

Keith Weinhold (00:18:11) - Is it always does, but actually many normality to I mean, I've commented that there's actually relative normalcy in the fed funds rate and even mortgage rate levels. If you look at it historically, also home price appreciation rates, in rent appreciation rates, they're all close to historic norms, although the aberrations are probably more interesting to talk about. What are your thoughts on the economy's general direction?

Brien Lundin (00:18:37) - Yeah, you know, it really is weird. We think about today's interest rates and how high they are. And throughout human history, the natural level of interest rates have hovered around 6%. That's kind of what it's always been for thousands of years. So what we went through over the last 16 years or so was a really abnormal period, and even going back a decade or so before that. So yeah, it looks seems like interest rates are at normal levels. What is at abnormal levels, however, is the level of debt that we have today. And and that's been created after over four decades of ever easier money, ever since Volcker killed off inflation in the 1970s and started lowering rates, we see that whenever there was a recession, the Federal Reserve had the same prescription every time it lowered interest rates, and then it would try to raise them back, but could never get past the midpoint of the previous range before another recession would come back, or the markets would throw some kind of a fit in.

Brien Lundin (00:19:40) - The fed would then start easing again. And if you look over time, if you plot or draw a line at the bottom of every one of those interest cutting cycles, see that those bottoms of the cycles get progressively lower and lower. Till 2008, they hit zero. And then they tried to normalize it got up to 2.5% on the Fed's funds fund rate, and then had to go right back to zero at Covid. So the lesson to me is that things might seem normal if you look at the grand sweep of history, but they're anything but normal right now, and the debt loads that we have are so high they preclude anything resembling a normal interest rate. And in fact, my contention is that interest rates have to be below the rate of inflation. In other words, the currency has to depreciate at a faster rate than you're paying interest on these debts, or the whole house of cards collapses. So that's actually, while not good for the fiscal health of the US or other developed economies, it's actually good for the kind of tangible assets, real assets we are talking about real estate, gold, silver, monetary metals, even commodities.

Brien Lundin (00:20:52) - And, you know, everything across the board as far as tangible assets.

Keith Weinhold (00:20:56) - Yeah, we look at the long term history of interest rates 5 to 6% if If you go back hundreds of years or even thousands of years is a historic norm. The fed funds rate is now at about 5.3%. But yeah, I think what you're talking about is we seem to have a decreasing tolerance for what are really normal rates. Nothing abnormal about the rate. All that was abnormal was the rate of increase. And you know, one thing that I think about with the economy, Brian, that maybe people don't talk about enough. Is this labor shortage that we have? I mean, it is difficult to do get anyone to do my landscaping. Last year I stayed in a hotel where when I checked in, there was no human being at the check in desk. It was automated checking. Then last month, I stayed at a hotel where there was a human at the front desk, but they told me that there was not going to be any housekeeping during my state.

Keith Weinhold (00:21:46) - So the reason that I bring this up is that a chronic labor shortage that spells entrenched upward pressure on inflation, because you have to offer higher wages to lure in workers and higher wages paid mean higher consumer prices, higher rents, more inflation and persistently high rates to combat that.

Brien Lundin (00:22:07) - Yeah, absolutely. And you bring up a whole nother factor that very few people consider as demographics. You know, the fertility rate in the US is below the replacement rate. It's about 1.7 now, and it would have to be like 2.1. And as they say, demographics is destiny. We're not the only ones by any means. Japan went over the demographic cliff long ago. We're following all the other developed nations are as well. And in 20 or 30 years the global population will be falling. That brings about a lot of other pressures and real estate. Obviously you have, you know, the baby boomers are going to be downsizing if they can find something to move into. Besides a retirement home, had a decent mortgage rate.

Brien Lundin (00:22:50) - You know, we have so much overhang in real estate that's sitting out there and locked up by the current interest rate. So yeah, it's an interesting dynamic we're in right now. And personally I think it's all just a result of the Federal Reserve and all these other monetary mavens whose PhDs I want to pull all these levers on the economy. And they have unintended consequences in every one of the policies that they undertake. And we're in one right now.

Keith Weinhold (00:23:20) - We've got both inflation and a scarce supply of property that just keeps floating property values higher despite higher mortgage rates. And one place that the high inflation is often reflected is in the price of gold. Gold is up more than 20% year over year. And one thing I want to ask you about here, with regard to gold and the fact that we have this debt that you brought up earlier, Brian, is a real problem. When we look outside the US, the world's biggest economy is by far China. China has been dumping US treasuries, meaning basically that they're no longer buying our US IOUs so they no longer want our debt.

Keith Weinhold (00:23:59) - And instead, China and other nations are increasingly parking it in gold. Now, is that one of the reasons that gold has surged?

Brien Lundin (00:24:07) - Yeah, it is the primary reason. Or, you know, one of the primary factors why gold has surged this year in particular. And it's a weird mix of buying. This year. We saw the gold price start taking off like the 1st of March. And it was for the first six weeks or so. It was literally a relentless rise, not a down day. Setting new price records every day. And it took us a while to try and figure out or to figure out where the buying was coming from. And as it turns out, it was the result of continued buying by central banks renewed buying to an even greater degree by the people's Bank of China, and also some domestic demand from China. And that's something we had never seen before. We'd never seen Chinese investors and savers buying gold on the way up in a price trend. They usually bought on a price downtrend trying to get a bargain, but now they were following the price up.

Brien Lundin (00:25:06) - So that contributed to everything and the factor that we had expected that did not come about in the first half of the year was a fed pivot. You know, if you look back in December, yeah, the markets are pricing in 5 or 6 fed rate cuts in 2024. And that kept getting postponed. And that was expected. I expected in most of the other analysts expected the beginning of fed rate cuts to really drive the price up higher, but it kept getting postponed. That big factor is still ahead of us. I think the markets are going to start pricing that in in a couple of months. And so what all that central bank buying and Chinese buying is done is while we were waiting for the fed to pivot in that big factor, it went ahead and added $300 to the gold price and got us into a new trading range so that when the fed pivot does hit, we're lifting off from a much higher level. So it's a good time, I think, to be an investor in gold and related assets.

Brien Lundin (00:26:07) - I think it's also a good time to be involved in real estate and a lot of other tangible and real assets, as.

Keith Weinhold (00:26:13) - Well as real estate investors we are interested in that interest rate direction. And, you know, if the US is continually finding themselves in a position where they're wondering, well, hey, if not China and others will, then who in the heck is going to buy our debt? And now you? I think the listener you can ask yourself in the same way, if you're trying to get your friends to give you a loan, How do you entice your friends to give you a loan? You would offer them a higher interest rate in order for them to give you a loan. So with that in mind, Brian, is that what the US has to do in order to entice foreign bondholders in the same way, meaning then debt rates would tend to be held high?

Brien Lundin (00:27:01) - Very interesting point there, Keith, because getting back what I was saying, how these PhD economists are pulling all the levers on the economy, the lever they're about to pull is to start lowering rates again, because they recognize these debt loads, they recognize the possibility of a recession, and that if there is a recession and tax receipts fall, then the debt load is going to accelerate even further.

Brien Lundin (00:27:26) - So they feel that policy right now is very restrictive. And they're going to start lowering rates at some point. They have to. But the debt loads being what they are, however you have on the other hand, the bondholders are, which you would hope would be the buyers of the Treasury securities, and they will look and see the potential economic slowdowns. They had the potential for higher inflation and start demanding higher returns on their yields. So there is a tension there. We saw that develop last October, November timeframe and a few months ago when we saw Treasury yields rise at the same time that the dollar index rose versus other currencies and gold was rising, which was a weird kind of strange bedfellows there that typically gold does not rise when interest rates are rising and the dollar is strengthening. But they were all going up together, and that happened a bit last fall as well. To my mind, that is a reflection of safe haven buying. You know, typically we think Treasury yields fall when they're safe haven buying because everybody's going into treasuries.

Brien Lundin (00:28:36) - To me that was reflective of safe haven buying because the markets were really concerned about the fiscal future for the US and other developed countries. So they were going to the safety of the dollar, the safety of gold and demanding higher yields on treasuries. That would be more commensurate with the kind of inflation rate that they saw ahead. But it's been a weird mix of buying a weird mix of economic developments, and I think it all argues toward big money getting more and more into gold because of the uncertainty that lies ahead, and the really the extraordinary nature of the current economic situation to the world we find ourselves in now.

Keith Weinhold (00:29:21) - I did not realize that there is less sensitivity to higher gold prices until I just learned that from you a few minutes ago. So that's really interesting about potential momentum in the future price of gold. And we talk about the future price of gold. We think of that through a supply and demand lens, much like we think about what's moving real estate prices today. Have we hit peak gold, meaning that there's less and less of it to pull out of the ground?

Brien Lundin (00:29:49) - All of the trends in that respect actually favor gold and that we have reached peak gold production as around 32,300 tonnes a year.

Brien Lundin (00:30:00) - Interestingly, a third of that level is being purchased now by China between the people's Bank of China and Chinese citizens. So a good bit of that is taken off. But I'm not a big proponent for the validity or the impact of supply and demand for gold, because it is monetary demand that really drives the price of gold. It has no utility, virtually no utility and industry. It is purely a monetary metal. So when people are concerned about the future purchasing power of the currency, they buy gold and they drive the price up, and that buying on the margin really sets the price of gold. And I think we're about to enter one of those periods where gold really plays catch up for long sweeps of time. You'll see the gold price doesn't do much until something happens. Things get bad to a certain degree where people really start to worry about their purchasing power, and then gold makes a huge catch up move. Really, in the early stages of that kind of a catch up ketchup move, I believe.

Brien Lundin (00:31:06) - I think we're entering a period that would be akin to the 1970s and the 2000, where the price of gold has historically gone up anywhere between five and a half and eight and a half times over during these kinds of secular bull markets. And I think we're in one of those periods right now.

Keith Weinhold (00:31:25) - Five and a half to eight x.

Brien Lundin (00:31:27) - Yeah. If you look at the fact that there's only been three bull markets in gold since 1971, when it actually became, you know, an investable asset or commodity and not money. So 1970 to 75 was a bull market of 76 to 1980 with a bull market. And really, 2000 to 2011 was another bull market run. And each of those instances, each of those three bull markets, gold went up from 25.6 to 8.2 times from the lows. And this market we're in now, the low is about $1,040. So if the price of gold goes up trading 5.6 and 8.2 times, you're talking about 6 to $8000 gold price at the end of this cycle, wherever and whenever that takes us.

Brien Lundin (00:32:17) - And of course, you know, we're up around 2300 and change right now. So that's a good move ahead. Lots of potential. And it's not just where the price of gold goes, but all the associated assets worth it, like mining stocks and the like are going to do, I think, very well over the next few years.

Keith Weinhold (00:32:36) - Yeah. People know gold is the classic inflation hedge. But to your point, it has a lot to do with catching a wave. If you think the real long term diminished purchasing power of the dollar is 3 or 4% over time. Well, you don't see gold go up gradually at 3 or 4% per year for several years. You tend to see it do little or nothing, and then it has this big catch up phase, like those periods of time that you talked about. When we talk about physically holding on to gold, you know, it's cool. It's one of those type of investments where if you do hold it yourself, there's no login or password to access your goal that is physical, intangible.

Keith Weinhold (00:33:10) - And you know, Brad, one thing that a lot of gold people often talk about is a positive attribute to holding gold is that it has zero counterparty risk when it's yours. No one can take it from you. But does it really have no counterparty risk? Because I think about if a person wants to hold physical gold, well, if they outsource it to a third party vault or a bank safe deposit box, then the counterparty risk is there. But if they hold it onto themselves and store it in their own home, which I don't know if that's a good idea, but if they choose to do so, well then the counterparty risk is the thief. So I think gold is a great way to store wealth, but is there really zero counterparty risk associated with gold?

Brien Lundin (00:33:48) - Well, from that standpoint, there's never a zero risk. There's never a zero risk. When you step out of your door in the morning, either, you know, there's always some risk. You can mitigate the risk. And it reminds me of of what I tell people when they're really new to the sector is there are two reasons to buy gold.

Brien Lundin (00:34:04) - One is as insurance and one is as an investment. And insurance is what you need to worry about right away because you're insuring against something you know is going to happen. If you feel like 3 to 5 years, the dollar's purchasing power, it's going to be much less than it is today. I think we can all agree in most likely is then by buying gold today, you lock in today's value of the dollar because gold will make that up, and perhaps even more so, it will protect you against that depreciation. So you can ensure your wealth by holding some physical metals. And I think that's the most important thing you can do, at least initially, is get silver and gold. Now, as far as storing it, a lot of people can store enough gold in their house to gain a good bit of insurance against whatever their wealth is. And by that, you know you will have to invest in a safe. Don't tell anybody about where it is and a good alarm system. And if you haven't and a location where you have a good police force, then you're talking about 20 minutes that somebody's going to get in your home before the police come and knocking, and hopefully they can't find the safe, much less get into it in that amount of time so you can do it in your house to some degree.

Brien Lundin (00:35:16) - You can store it elsewhere, but there are important considerations there. They're very respected storage facilities and the like. You don't want to store it in a bank because one of the things you're insuring against is a bank holiday, thanks to like you to store it there either, but you can find respected institutions to store it. I recommend people don't put all the eggs in one basket and store it with a number of institutions, or as many as they can practically do. But yeah, it is important to own the metals, you know. Otherwise you're going to lose from here. On the day that you decide not to buy gold and silver to protect your wealth from that day on, you're accepting a rate of purchasing power depreciation that we know is considerably more than what the government says it is, and is historically high to begin with.

Keith Weinhold (00:36:09) - I generally think it's a good idea to own at least a little gold if you have trepidation about buying gold. Think of it this way in a way you're not buying gold, You're transferring some of your prosperity over into gold, which has had lasting value for millennia, across cultures and across generations.

Keith Weinhold (00:36:28) - And for some reason, I think a lot of people my age and younger that they don't own any gold. I would imagine that 90% plus of people, I think the statistics are out there. 97% of Americans don't own any gold. And maybe you feel like you don't understand gold and you don't want to own what you don't understand. But you could purchase this a 10th of an ounce of gold for under $300. And you know, by buying just a little bit, you begin to get a vested interest in this stuff. So with that in mind, Brian, how much do you think one should allocate and in what form should they make their purchase?

Brien Lundin (00:37:02) - It's interesting. There have been studies for many years showing that the highest risk adjusted return you can get in a diversified portfolio with about 5% of your wealth, or your investing portfolio allocated to go to heaven. Those same studies done that are indicating more like 10% or more. It's to the point that you sleep well at night, whatever makes you comfortable.

Brien Lundin (00:37:27) - But you know all of those studies back test it and they look back and see how gold and a portfolio meshes with the six, the classic 6040 mix of stocks and bonds etc.. But what we've seen over the last 12, 14 years is that post the 2008 great financial crisis is that all of these asset classes have become more and more positively correlated because everything's dependent on the Federal Reserve and monetary policy. So all of the correlations have started to trend toward one, where they all rise and fall together in unison. Because everything, again, is just depends on monetary policy and the flow of liquidity from the Federal Reserve and other central banks. So that fact alone argues for even a greater holding in gold, because all of that portends greater and greater inflation, greater monetary accommodation, and the kind of thing that gold insures against. So the way to look at gold as insurance is not quite like home insurance. You know, you buy home insurance, you pay the premium every year in case your house catches on fire.

Brien Lundin (00:38:38) - But you really don't expect your house to catch on fire. With gold. You're buying insurance. You're paying the premium, perhaps just once, and you're insuring against something that you know is going to happen, that the purchasing power of your dollars are going to depreciate. So if you have a significant cash balance in accounts, you might as well put it into precious metals and lock in the current rate before it gets the purchasing power of the dollar depreciates even further.

Keith Weinhold (00:39:06) - That is a good point with gold as money insurance from the standpoint that with your homeowner's insurance and your landlord's insurance policy, you need to pay a premium annually. You potentially only need to pay that once upfront when you purchase your gold, and there's typically a spot price differential to overcome. Well, Brian, you are the host of America's longest running investment conference, which is founded on championing American's right to own gold. The New Orleans Investment Conference. It really feels like there is a touch of prestige when you're there. I can speak to that personally because I've attended it at least three times in the past.

Keith Weinhold (00:39:47) - It's coming up in November. I hope to attend again this year. You've got some illustrious speakers there. Tell us about this year's New Orleans Investment Conference.

Brien Lundin (00:39:58) - Yeah, it is our 50th anniversary. You know, I think it's the oldest investment conference in the world today and longest running. And we do have that legacy, that prestige of being somewhat gold oriented. We're actually covering a good bit more real estate lately, but we really cover a lot of the macro picture macroeconomics. We have some of the leading thinkers come to our vet every year and a great audience as well. Very highly qualified, very successful investors. This year is up 50th. So we have another wonderful roster of speakers. We have Jim Grant coming, George Gammon, James Lavish, Danielle DiMartino Booth, Britt Johnson, Abby Gilbert, Adam Taggart, the list goes on and on. Rick Rule, Peter Boockvar, dozens and dozens of top minds. And, you know, we kind of alluded to it in this talk, but these are really strange and interesting and dangerous, extraordinary times that we're living through right now.

Brien Lundin (00:41:02) - And it is amazing to me, having been in the business for 9 to 40 years now, seeing these kinds of periods come and go. And it seems that when they do happen, we get this kind of underground media that arises, and people who really bring in losses come to the fore to comment on what's going on and provide really valuable insights. And after all the years I've been in this business, I know who really contributes value, who the best thinkers are, and I'm getting them all to come to New Orleans. As I have to say, I'm a big fan of all of our speakers. I think they are absolutely extraordinary, and we are so confident that you will find our event to be worth many times the cost of attending, that we have a money back guarantee. If you don't think it does, if you don't think it's worth many times what you paid for, we'll give you registration feedback. So it's very few events that can offer a guarantee like that. And I think you would agree with me that you have to be there to really experience it.

Brien Lundin (00:42:07) - And it really is just an extraordinary experience.

Keith Weinhold (00:42:11) - Yeah, I can't imagine anyone not getting a multiple on their investment with attending the conference. You know, one thing that you do really well there at the conference, Brian, besides just listening to all those speakers that you just mentioned, you also have panel format discussions where sometimes you can learn more when you're listening to a conversation than you can when you're listening to a presentation. You have both choices there. Then if you prefer you want to break, you can go across the hallway to where the exhibit hall is and do some learning and meeting people over there. And then you also have these breakout sessions where you go upstairs into small rooms and learn from presenters in just the niche that you think most interests you or that you want to learn more about. So there's really good variety there.

Brien Lundin (00:42:54) - Yeah, it's kind of a time tested format. It's different than most conferences you'll find out there, but it's worked well for us for 49 years, and our attendees seem to appreciate the unique format that we have and the ability to learn.

Brien Lundin (00:43:09) - And it really is information almost overload. There's so much of value from these speakers. If you are intellectually curious, if you are a serious investor, if you enjoy an intellectually stimulating environment in a destination location, this is really the place for you. And you know, I can go on over and over again for as long as we have time for and more to say talking about it. But the best advertising we do are people who word of mouth from people who have come. And I would encourage anyone who is considering coming to the New Orleans Investment Conference. Number one, this is our 50th anniversary. It's going to be a very special year. But number two, find somebody who's been before. Talk to them about it. And I think you'll get excited about attending this year.

Keith Weinhold (00:43:56) - Each year it is at an excellent location. It's at the New Orleans, Riverside Hilton and Bryan Terrace, those November dates for the event and then how one can attend.

Brien Lundin (00:44:07) - Yeah, it's November 20th to 23rd this year, so it's the week before us Thanksgiving week.

Brien Lundin (00:44:14) - So it's it doesn't interfere with that holiday. It's kind of a good little slot there. And people can learn more by going to one New Orleans conference.com. Very simply New Orleans conference.com.

Keith Weinhold (00:44:29) - All right. It's been great catching up on the state of the economy, real estate inflation, interest rates, gold. And thank you so much for putting on this terrific conference for the benefit of every interested investor. It's been great having you back on the show.

Brien Lundin (00:44:43) - Wonderful to talk to you again, Keith, as always.

Keith Weinhold (00:44:52) - Oh, yeah. Bright, inarticulate thoughts from Brian, as always, when he and I discussed those related factors of inflation and interest rates. I mean, this is such a germane discussion because, like he brought up, there seems to be this increasing propensity for all asset classes to rise or fall together. Like nearly every asset class is near an all time high right now. I'll need to research the incidence of this some more so that it's not just anecdotal, but the Fed's decisions. They seem to increasingly float up or knock down just about every investment class almost simultaneously.

Keith Weinhold (00:45:35) - Real estate stocks, gold, crypto commodities, collectible toys, even nearly everything. And when you're a real estate investor, you are already investing in commodities and metals, and you have direct ownership of those. Now, not so much precious metals in your real estate, but we're talking about items that are built into it, like aluminum and steel and copper. They probably exist in your properties. Well, their prices go into the replacement cost of your property, and they are a reflection of your real estate portfolio's overall value, too. Coming up here on future episodes of the show, it will be the inaugural appearance of the King of Commercial Real Estate here on the show. Also, there seems to be still a mainstream aversion to all debt types, and I suppose it finds me in the position of being real estate's debt proselytizing. Well, coming up on the show, I am going to ask and answer the question for you is any debt worth paying off? Which debts are good to pay down? Which stitch should be paid off, and which debt types do you want to keep, and which debt types do you actually want to get more of? What are the exact distinctions so that you know right where to draw that line on all the debt types that you hold on to.

Keith Weinhold (00:47:00) - So coming up here on the show, is any debt worth paying off? And I am pleased to tell you that if you would like to meet in person, yes, you're going to have a chance to do that at the special 50th anniversary of the New Orleans Investment Conference. Now, I'm not sure that meeting me in person really brings any benefit to you or the event, but yes, I am attending in person in New Orleans. I haven't been there since 2021 and I want to return. Brian London really knows how to put on an event. There is a lot of macroeconomic talk there and you will hear more about both that and gold than you will about real estate, although I expect plenty of real estate investing information there as usual. Again, it's November 20th to 23rd, four plus months away. And the registration link that you can use for this is in today's show notes. I will also get it into the next newsletter for you. Big thanks to the wise and wonderful Brien Lundin today. Until next week, I'm your host, Keith Weinhold.

Keith Weinhold (00:48:03) - Don't quit your daydream.

Speaker 5 (00:48:09) - Nothing on this show should be considered specific, personal or professional advice. Please consult an appropriate tax, legal, real estate, financial or business professional for individualized advice. Opinions of guests are their own. Information is not guaranteed. All investment strategies have the potential for profit or loss. The host is operating on behalf of get Rich education LLC exclusively.

Keith Weinhold (00:48:37) - The preceding program was brought to you by your home for wealth building. Get Rich education.com.

Direct download: GREepisode510_b.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 4:00am EST

Mon, 8 July 2024

Asset prices are near all-time highs for almost everything: real estate, stocks, gold, bitcoin, and more. This is because in a wave of high inflation, investors chase yields.

Legendary investor Jim Rogers joins us.

Jim gives dire warnings about US debt levels.

Meet me and one of our Investment Coaches in-person at FreedomFest in Las Vegas, July 10th to 13th.

I put $1T into perspective. A trillion seconds ago was 31,700 years ago. That’s when neanderthals roamed the plains of Europe.

The dollar is a monopoly. The US government has no competition for their product, the dollar.

Jim Rogers believes that higher inflation and interest rates are here to stay.

He says: “Before this is over, interest rates in the US are going to go much, much higher.”

Resources mentioned:

For access to properties or free help with a

GRE Investment Coach, start here:

Get mortgage loans for investment property:

RidgeLendingGroup.com or call 855-74-RIDGE

or e-mail: info@RidgeLendingGroup.com

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508: Essential Real Estate Quotes You Must Hear

Complete episode transcript:

Keith Weinhold (00:00:01) - Welcome to GRE. I'm your host, Keith Weinhold. I'll tell you about a chance to meet me in person. Then we're joined by a renowned and legendary investor for his sage like wisdom on how you should respond to record US debt levels for forecast the future direction of inflation and interest rates, plus a taste of the Singapore real estate market today and get rich education.

Robert Syslo (00:00:27) - Since 2014, the powerful Get Rich Education podcast has created more passive income for people than nearly any other show in the world. This show teaches you how to earn strong returns from passive real estate, investing in the best markets without losing your time being a flipper or landlord. Show host Keith Weinhold writes for both Forbes and Rich Dad Advisors, and delivers a new show every week. Since 2014, there's been millions of listeners downloads and 188 world nations. He has A-list show guests include top selling personal finance author Robert Kiyosaki. Get Rich Education can be heard on every podcast platform, plus has had its own dedicated Apple and Android listener. Phone apps.

Robert Syslo (00:01:02) - Build wealth on the go with the Get Rich Education podcast. Sign up now for the get Rich education podcast or visit get Rich education.com.

Corey Coates (00:01:13) - You're listening to the show that has created more financial freedom than nearly any show in the world. This is get rich education.

Keith Weinhold (00:01:29) - Welcome to GRE. From Sydney, Australia, to Sydney, Nova Scotia, Canada, and across 188 nations worldwide. I'm Keith Weinhold and you're listening to Get Rich Education. Why are our values of almost every asset so high? Well, one reason is because we've had that high wave of inflation. When that happens, savvy investors, people just like you, they ensure that money must flow into assets. And that's because you seek a real return above and beyond inflation. If inflation were low, investors wouldn't have to chase yields this way. I've got more on asset values in a moment. But first, on today's guest, legendary investor Jim Rogers, who will hear from as a returning guest here soon in early 2019. So more than five years ago, he told us right here on the show that interest rates are going to go much, much, much higher over the next few decades and that is going to ruin a lot of people.

Keith Weinhold (00:02:32) - In fact, let's listen into that. Here it is. This is from get Rich education podcast episode 224, which you heard here in January 2019. This is Jim Rogers.

Jim Rogers (00:02:43) - And interest rates are going to go go much, much, much higher over the next few decades. And it's going to ruin a lot of people.

Keith Weinhold (00:02:50) - And then from there, he went on to tell us at that time, rising interest rates will set in for a long time. And this was back when the fed funds rate was just half of what it is today in mortgage rates were 4.5% back there in early 2019. So Jim Rogers made that firm prediction even before we knew about Covid. Then. And on that episode, we talked about getting your debt and locking it in. And then two years later in 2021, he was back here on the show to warn us to expect high inflation. Well, we sure got that too. And as you listen to Jim Rogers on today's episode, consider that, you know, he just often speaks with this sort of, I suppose, nonchalance that I think can make it easy to dismiss what he says.

Keith Weinhold (00:03:46) - But don't do that because countless people have benefited from his guidance for decades. Just like I hope that you do today in the real estate world. Now, agencies agree that the national year over year home price appreciation rate is 6%. That's today per the FHFA, the NAR and Case-Shiller 6% home price appreciation. What about rents? Today, Single-Family rents are up 5%. Nationally, multifamily rents up 2.7%. So why are Single-Family rents growing faster than multifamily rents? Well, it's partly because 2023 saw the biggest surge in new apartment supply since 1987. Yes, that's back when Madonna was the hottest music artist and Reagan met with Gorbachev. But there's less apartment construction this year, so expect a lot of that to get absorbed. Available inventory of Single-Family Rentals is going to stay more scarce than apartments for quite some time, but long term they both expect to be in really great shape. Residential rental demand is sustainable now. Back in 2022, available single family home inventory that was an astoundingly paltry one quarter of what was needed.

Keith Weinhold (00:05:20) - Well, now it's up to half. Some inventory has definitely been added. In fact, I was recently on television being asked about that. But this still means that demand handily exceeds supply. There's not nearly enough housing, especially on the single family end. And what about those perpetually just around the corner, always, constantly just around the corner, fed interest rate cuts. They keep getting delayed beyond a lot of people's expectations. Well, per the CME's Fed Watch tool, here is the chance given of when the first rate cut will occur by the end of July. 10% September 60th 4%. November 70th 7% December 90th 3%. You know, personally, I think the chances are lower than all of those currently inflation's at 3.3%. But here's the thing. Even when it hits the Fed's target of 2%, that doesn't mean that rates must be cut. All right. That's a reality that a lot of people seem to forget. Now here on the show, not after every quarter, but sometimes when a quarter ends, just like one did a week ago, we take a quick look at other asset class moves outside of real estate in order to get a relative perspective.

Keith Weinhold (00:06:43) - Some comparison here. If you're listening to this episode ten years from now, this is really going to help mark this era for you to is we do have many listeners that listen to every single episode. The 30 year mortgage rate is near 7%. Now, all these next figures are year to date through the first half of the year. So this is just the performance of the first half. Stocks have soared. The S&P is up 15%. One way that US stocks changed last quarter is the trades are now going to settle faster. Investors will see their purchases and sales finalized in just one day instead of two. Gold is up 13% to over 2300 bucks. Bitcoin up 44%, oil up 16% to $82. And again, that's performance for just the first half of this year. The world's three largest companies Apple, Microsoft and Nvidia have a combined value of over $9 trillion. Now, a company's total value is known as its market cap, and that is simply found by multiplying share price and shares outstanding. By comparison, all the gold in the world is worth 15 trillion.

Keith Weinhold (00:07:54) - Hey, if you're familiar with an event called Freedom Fest, I have some cool news for you. It's an annual conference that. How would I describe it? Well, I haven't attended it before, but there you can learn to expect more about free thinking and ideas about the size of government. Well, it starts in two days. It's July 10th to 13th in Las Vegas. You can meet one of Gre's investment coaches in person there and you can also meet me. Yes, we'll both be there. If you see us, be sure to say hi. We'd both like to meet you. Hashtag IRL in real life, some of the Freedom Fest speakers include our frequent great guest, Robert Kiyosaki, as well as some other guests that you've heard with me here on the show. Also, Steve Forbes, Iced Tea, the comedian Rob Schneider, Nevada Governor Joe Lombardo, Whole Foods founder John Mackey and the congressman that wants to end the fed, Thomas Massie and more. They're all speaking. So yes, not a lot of notice, but if you're going, it's a way to meet me in real life, perhaps just in a casual way, in two days at Freedom Fest.

Keith Weinhold (00:09:08) - Well, it is public information that the net worth of this week's guest is $300 million. He's been influential for a long time. Let's talk to legendary investor Jim Rogers. This week's guest needs a little introduction. He is a legendary business and investing mogul of our time. He's a Yale educated, prolific author. He co-founded the Quantum Fund, and he even has his own commodities index and ETF. He's also a prolific traveler. He wrote a very well known book about his world travels, visiting some 116 nations. Hey, welcome back to gray. It's Jim Rogers.

Jim Rogers (00:09:51) - I'm delighted to be here. Okay, let's get rich. I need to get rich. I want to get rich.

Keith Weinhold (00:09:56) - Hey. Well, your guidance helps us do that. That's why you're here. And Jim is joining us remotely from his home nation city of Singapore today. And it's always interesting syncing up our times of day here. Jim, where to begin? You've been with us here. I think this is the fourth time you're here and about the last five years, and we're at a time when asset prices of seemingly everything are near their all time highs, maybe even in their inflation adjusted all time highs in some cases.

Keith Weinhold (00:10:25) - What are your thoughts with asset price levels?

Jim Rogers (00:10:29) - Keith. You it's very perceptive of you and insightful. Yes. This is one of the few times in world history that I know about where nearly everything is making new eyes. I think China is probably the only country. It's not making new eyes, but nearly everything else is. Now it's wonderful. It's great. A lot of people are having a lot of fun, but unfortunately, I've been around long enough to know that when things get this good, when everybody's having so much fun, we're getting closer to the end. I am not selling short or anything yet, but I see the signs that this is going to come to an end, as it always does, and it's going to be a mess. And the reason this is going to be a big mess this time. You remember what happened in 2008 because of too much debt each. That's 2009. The debt everywhere has skyrocketed. I mean, even China has a lot of debt now. China bailed us out before, but everybody has a lot of debt now.

Jim Rogers (00:11:31) - Maybe not North Korea, but everybody else does.

Keith Weinhold (00:11:34) - And that sure includes us. I mean, we have these asset prices at all time highs. Yet here we are, still the largest detonation in the history of the world in the United States now at 35 trillion. And we're spending dollars on others wars, something that we couldn't say when you and I talked a few years ago. The biggest line item of our national budget anymore is about $1 trillion in annual interest payments alone in. Jim, we're really on this course now where soon the US annual tax receipts won't even cover the interest payments on our debt, and we may have to borrow just to pay the interest. So where do we reach the breaking point here? With this world in debt led by the United States?

Jim Rogers (00:12:20) - You one makes some very good points. Unfortunately. I wish you didn't. I wish you couldn't make those points right. It's simple arithmetic. Just look at the numbers. And the numbers you recite are just what they admit, what they write.

Jim Rogers (00:12:34) - There's a lot of off balance sheet debt that they don't even talk about. I mean, the numbers, if you try to get out of pencil on a piece of paper, you will realize that the market can never pay this debt. Never. Countries that have gotten into this situation in the past have had big problems. Now it's a good time to be an old American. I don't have to worry about all this for too many years, but I have young children. Oh my gosh. The problem is that their country is going to face in their lifetime. I was staggering. You look back at previous countries that have done this kind of thing. In the 19 to 100 years ago, Britain was the richest, most powerful country in the world. 50 years later, it was bankrupt. IMF had to fly to London and pay their bills. It wasn't fun. It was terrible what Britain went through. But other countries have done the same thing. Maybe we don't like what I'm saying or what's happening, but just read the history and you will see how it winds up.

Jim Rogers (00:13:38) - I certainly don't like it, but I have to deal with facts. If I don't deal with facts, I'll go bankrupt. To which I don't want to do.

Keith Weinhold (00:13:48) - Yeah, sometimes let's laugh to keep from crying. Right? When you talk about how certain government figures are just what the government is willing to admit to, I think that's the right lens to look through. When you look at any government figures. Well, at least that's the part that they're willing to admit to. It's interesting that they're willing to admit to this is interesting that they're willing to admit to 9% inflation like we peaked at two years ago. But when you talk about the future and this huge debt load and children or grandchildren, could austerity be part of it, something that's very politically unpopular. But if we lived in an austere state, wouldn't that really be sort of like the downfall of the American empire at that point?

Jim Rogers (00:14:30) - Well, that's what happened to the British. As I said 100 years ago, they were the richest, most powerful country in the world.

Jim Rogers (00:14:36) - There was no number two. Then if two years later, completely bankrupt, I happened to be in England during part of that time and it was a mess. Wretched. So I don't like saying any of this, but I have to deal with the reality and the numbers you cite or what they admit. You know, the numbers are much worse. I don't know if anybody in Washington really knows. I don't even know if they care enough to check to see how bad things are. But every time a someone from Washington, a politician or a bureaucrat says something, they say, don't worry, everything's okay. We have a Janet Yellen who's a secretary of the Treasury. Are you or two ago said, don't worry, we have everything under control.

Keith Weinhold (00:15:20) - Reassuring isn't it? Not really.

Jim Rogers (00:15:22) - Oh my gosh. He's got a couple of fancy Ivy League degrees, but she still says, don't worry, it's okay. Well, I worry, I'm probably not as smart as she is, but I worry.

Keith Weinhold (00:15:36) - Well, it's interesting that you bring up the fact about the things that we don't know and these numbers, these debt levels and even the deficit gets so big, we're just throwing around this word trillion anymore.

Keith Weinhold (00:15:48) - For some perspective, I happen to know that 1,000,000,000,000 seconds is 31,700 years. In order to help put this into perspective, well, 31,700 years ago, that's just about as far back as when the planes of Europe were being roamed by Neanderthals. That's 1,000,000,000,000 seconds ago. And again, we are $35 trillion in debt, and we have a deficit of at least $1 trillion. The annual thing.

Jim Rogers (00:16:21) - I'm glad you're putting some perspective on this, but I don't need it. I know it's a staggering whatever number you want to look at, whether it's the one they report or the one that's they hide whatever it is, I know, because I can add and subtract. I know that America has a gigantic problem that is going to end up like every other country that's done this sort of thing. It's going to end up badly. America is going to lose its status, not this month. Don't worry. July is okay. But no, I can read, I can add, I can subtract. I know how it's going to wind up.

Jim Rogers (00:17:02) - It's not good for young Americans.

Keith Weinhold (00:17:06) - I mean, we think of the fall of the Roman Empire. You bring up the UK. The UK is still part of the G7, but they're no longer the one predominant power in the world. Jim, when I look at history and I think about sort of the powers that be and how they create and debase the currency, and how those problems percolate into so many parts of the society. I think if the United States is basically they have a monopoly on creating currency, and I just wonder if that's part of the problem. Lennar builds houses, but they have competition from KB homes. John Deere makes tractors and they have competition from New Holland. Heinz makes ketchup and they have competition from hunts. See, when there's competition, there's sort of this incentive to produce quality and provide others with value. But since the U.S. has no substantial competition to the dollar, I wonder if we can think of this as a de facto monopoly from its dilution of the purchasing power of the dollar.

Keith Weinhold (00:18:06) - Its quality is suffering because the dollar doesn't have any substantial competition. So I guess what I'm leading up to, what I'm getting at, is we think about currency creation as a de facto US monopoly. I mean, does the government have to be the exclusive money printer where all this just ends up in the debt column here?

Jim Rogers (00:18:24) - You raise some very good points. But back to the first main point. The main point is there is no way that America can ever pay these debts except by default, Which is one horrible way. Or by printing gigantic amounts of money, which is another horrible way. This is not the first time countries have done this. If you just go back and look, it is never ended well. Never ended well. Yes, England is still there, but nobody thinks about England the way they did 100 years ago. And nobody in England lives like they did 100 years ago, and many people left. I don't know what's going to happen to the US, except I know it's not going to end well because I can add and you can add and subtract.

Jim Rogers (00:19:15) - I wish we could subtract. There's nothing to subtract because the debt just keeps high and higher and higher. And the numbers are very simple. If you get out the amount of debt we have and see the possible income, it just doesn't work. If you have fifth grade education, fifth grade arithmetic, you know it doesn't work.

Keith Weinhold (00:19:39) - Jim, I don't know if you remember this, but the first time you were with us, it was January of 2019. That was more than five years ago. And at that time you said interest rates are going to go much, much, much higher. That was your direct quote, three matches. And you said that it's going to ruin a lot of people. And here we are with a lot of people ruined in the commercial real estate world and the apartment syndication world and so on. So if you continue to think there's going to be more currency creation to make it easier to pay back our debt, does that mean you believe that higher interest rates and higher inflation are going to be a persistent condition, say, just till the end of this decade, which is about another five years? What do you think about inflation and interest rates for these next five years?

Jim Rogers (00:20:27) - I know that in Washington they will print money.

Jim Rogers (00:20:31) - That's all they know. They want to keep their jobs. They don't care about you. I don't care about any of us. They care about keeping their job. And they will do whatever they have to to keep their job the easy way. Now, the proper way, of course, is to buckle up, buckle down, and start doing something about the rendus situation we were in. They don't care. They think they'll be gone by the time those times come, if they're ever coming, and they will say, but we're America. We cannot have problems like that. Well, that's what the British said, too. Once upon a time. And as I say, there was no number two to the British. They were that power. They were that much on top. It's not that I don't like saying. I don't like thinking it. I don't like living with it. But I do hope I can prepare so that I don't go down the tubes like some other people will. But I may just do the arithmetic.

Jim Rogers (00:21:32) - It's very simple. The numbers just cannot work. I didn't say the numbers do not work. I said they cannot work because the situation is that dire. They can hold it off for a while by printing money. Great. But then not for you and me. Certainly not for our children.

Keith Weinhold (00:21:51) - I think that's all they're going to keep doing. That's the most expedient way to do it, to keep printing any politician that proposes austerity. And you having soup for breakfast, lunch and dinner is not very likely to get re-elected. Does that mean in the next five years you foresee historically elevated interest rates and inflation, which is basically where we actually still are now?

Jim Rogers (00:22:14) - Well, of course I do. I mean, there's the market. The problem is right now the central banks still think they're in control, and they pretty much are. But there will come a time. And there always has in history when the market says, wait a minute, we know you're lying. We know this cannot work. And then when the market takes over and the market starts setting interest rates and other conditions, that's called disaster.

Jim Rogers (00:22:41) - That's a real, real serious problem. The market will know how bad things are, and the Treasury secretary can sit there and say all day long, don't worry, don't worry. We have it under control. And the Marquis will say, thanks, but we know better.

Keith Weinhold (00:22:59) - Well, we've got more coming up with Jim, including. He spent some 60 plus years abroad. I want to learn more about what he thinks with living and traveling so much about the United States. You're listening to get Rich education. Our guest is legendary investor Jim Rogers. When we come back, I'm your host, Keith White. Hope your bank is getting rich off of you. The national average bank account pays less than 1% on your savings. If your money isn't making 4%, you're losing your hard earned cash to inflation. Let the liquidity fund help you put your money to work with minimum risk. Your cash generates up to an 8% return with compound interest year in and year out. Instead of earning less than 1% sitting in your bank account, the minimum investment is just 25 K.

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Speaker 5 (00:25:08) - This is The Real World Network's Kathy Petke, and you are listening to the always valuable get Rich education with Keith Reinhold.

Keith Weinhold (00:25:26) - Welcome back to get Rich. university. So we're talking with investing mogul legendary Jim Rogers.

Keith Weinhold (00:25:32) - He's joining us from Singapore today. He's joined us a few times over the past five years. And with what he said in what's coming, he's really been remarkably accurate. Sometimes he just gives a pretty casual delivery, but you really want to listen in to what he's saying. A lot of people have hung on his every word for decades here. And Jim, part of that is all your worldly experience. From so many of your travels and visiting over 100 nations. I've only visited about 35 so far myself. What do you think that we can learn about the United States from living and traveling abroad?

Jim Rogers (00:26:07) - First of all, I used to tell you I have made many mistakes in my life. I don't think I don't know how to get things wrong. I have many times. But yes, living abroad, I certainly even traveling abroad is an eye opening experience. It's a fabulous education. Rudyard Kipling, who won the Nobel Prize for literature, once had a line and a poem. The name of the poem was The English flag and the lion was.

Jim Rogers (00:26:36) - What can he know of England? Who only England knows. One is you'll know a lot about your own country if you know about the rest of the world. And you will you. If you go to country X and you see they eat different food or wear different clothes, it'll make you realize a lot about America. So my point is it's a fabulous education to see other places. I don't know if it's helped me. I in my view, it has helped me a lot to understand the world and to understand other people.

Keith Weinhold (00:27:11) - Now, in my international travels, which are a fraction of yours, a lot of times I get a reminder that life in the United States is still pretty clean and efficient. We have an abundance of potable water all the way to an amenity like fast Wi-Fi. And you know if someone abroad is traveling in the United States, they get to experience those things, and they probably don't even realize or understand that we're the greatest detonation in the history of the world. It's actually pretty difficult to know.

Jim Rogers (00:27:40) - There are signs that even those travelers will see. If you go to JFK airport, you will see the huge difference in JFK and say, the Japanese Narita Airport. You know your intuitive world when you visit some international airports outside of the US. But it's not just that America. Five star hotels do not compare with five star hotels in other countries. Listen, I don't like any of this because I have to live it. But the facts are. Yes. And you make a very good point that most people do not notice or does not affect them much at all if it affects them at all. But that just makes the eventual problem worse, because it hits us out of the blue and we don't know what happened. At least if we're worried, we can prepare. But you know, if you ride down the highway, most people think everything. It's okay. This is a nice interstate layout of potholes. They think everything is great. I hope that this all changes. I hope I'm wrong, but I have seen enough to dough that it's not going to end well.

Keith Weinhold (00:28:55) - Tell us about where you've lived for a long time. I mean, you come from the United States, but you've lived abroad for a long time. You've been there in Singapore for a while. Singapore, which is a place I haven't traveled to, has a reputation for being prosperous and enterprising in a really clean place. So will you tell us a little bit more about why Singapore is prosperous, including what its real estate markets like?

Jim Rogers (00:29:20) - Singapore is a tiny country. There are only 5 or 6 million people here. So yes, it has been a remarkable success story. It's probably been one of the greatest success stories in the world in the past 40 or 50 years. It still amazes me to see how efficient and how well everything works here. And they don't have yet the getting debt now, but they don't have the staggering debts that some other countries do. I mean, Japan, America. You look at some of the great success stories that come to people's minds. Japan did it by borrowing staggering amounts of money.

Jim Rogers (00:29:57) - Every day, the Bank of Japan borrows huge amounts of money it's going to have a problem to someday. I mean, it's just very simple. I don't want it to sound like some crazy fear monger, but I can read. And I know how this is always wound up. Now there's some very exciting and successful places in the world. And if you go to some parts of the United States, you say, oh my gosh, what a wonderful place. And it is. But underneath seems to me that there are problems developing. If you come to Singapore, you'll say, oh my gosh, and I'm not the only one who knows it all. The international surveys show that Singapore is one of the very top.

Keith Weinhold (00:30:42) - Now in Singapore, is it more of an owner society where most of the residents own the home they live in or like you find in a lot of urban areas? Is there a disproportionately high amount of renters there in Singapore?

Jim Rogers (00:30:55) - Over 80% of the people at Singapore own their own home.

Jim Rogers (00:31:00) - The guy who set out to build Singapore new and he especially because in his lifetime there had been a lot of riots in Asia. And he somehow knew that if people own their own home, they had a huge stake in the country, right? Had a reason to make sure, to try to make sure everything went well. So in this country, over 80% of the people own their own home. Yeah, he may have a mortgage, but still they own their own home. That's part of the reason for the success. I mean, for what it's worth, I'll also tell you he was a huge believer in education. He made sure that everybody spoke at least two languages. I mean, he knew what it took to be successful and he did it. Yeah.

Keith Weinhold (00:31:49) - Homeownership is generally good for communities like you touched on. You just have more of a stake in making sure your neighborhood stays quiet. Or you might show more interested enthusiasm in new clean mass transit coming into your area. You're more likely to be a voter when you own your home, and so on.

Keith Weinhold (00:32:06) - So sure, that gives the residents a more vested stake in their own community, which is good for everybody. Does Singapore have one problem that we have here with United States housing? Do you have any idea if there's a substantial housing shortage there in Singapore, like we're seeing in so many places?

Jim Rogers (00:32:21) - Do not shortage in the sense that you probably mean it? Yes. At times prices go high because there's not an abundance of housing and people keep moving to Singapore because it has been a successful place. So no, it's not like many places that we both know, but there are more immigrants coming here. The population is rising and they got a little somewhere. Yes, people are building homes and so it's not a gigantic problem at the moment. Can it be? Yes, of course it can be. And maybe it will be someday, but not at the moment. One thing I'll quickly say. Many societies, many countries, have a saying that families go from rags to rags and three generations. And there are many reasons for that.

Jim Rogers (00:33:11) - So social reasons. I will point out that Singapore is now on its fourth new government. So maybe if human wisdom is correct, maybe Singapore is going to have some problems in the future. You don't see them now. They might though.

Keith Weinhold (00:33:28) - Well, that's an interesting way to think about it. We've talked about problems in a few nations, Jim. I wonder, do you see there being a bright next up, incoming nation because you have this relative perspective from all your travels.

Jim Rogers (00:33:43) - There are places that are trying to change and do better. Yet, Nam is a perfect example. I mean, what a nightmare it was 40 or 50 years ago. Right now it's on the rise. South Korea is one of the most successful, prosperous nations in the world. And in 1970, North Korea was richer than South Korea. That, of course, is not true anymore. So countries can change and can develop. And it has worked. I'm interested in Uzbekistan now, in Central Asia. It was ruined by the communists.

Jim Rogers (00:34:20) - over 600 years ago. Uzbekistan conquered a lot of the world. I mean, then the communists came along and ruined it. But now they're changing again. So there's always somebody on the rise, and I'll be somebody on the decline. That's key, of course, is to be in the place where things are getting better, not getting worse.

Keith Weinhold (00:34:42) - With that in mind is we're about to wrap up here. Jim, you know, I like an actionable takeaway for the audience. And before I ask you that, if I can share with you what we do here in a nation and a world of expanding debt, Grey's take on debt here is the way that we can borrow large amounts prudently and get our own debt is to buy income producing real estate. If you borrow more, you can only control more and both inflation and tenants passively debase your mortgage debt for you, which enriches that borrower as long as they can control their cash flow. So really, that's one thing that we're doing to play things here in a world of inflation.

Keith Weinhold (00:35:25) - What are your thoughts with that? Or if you think that there's something else that the everyday person can really do to protect themselves in the future.

Jim Rogers (00:35:33) - It's pretty clear that there have been, if you understand that and if you manage it properly, oh my gosh, you can become unbelievably successful and unbelievably rich. The proper words are though, if you handle it properly. History also showed that many people have been ruined by debt, so I hope that everybody understands that debt is not as simple as it looks, but if you handle it properly, oh my gosh, the returns and the rewards are huge. And yes, there are many, many throughout history, throughout the world, many people that made gigantic fortunes from property, from real estate. So I hope you're doing it right. I hope all of your viewers are doing it right. It's not as easy as it looks, but it can lead to great success and great disaster. So yes. Don't stop. Make sure that everybody understands the potential problems and the potential rewards and they don't get overextended.

Jim Rogers (00:36:37) - Oh my gosh, you'll be very, very rich.

Keith Weinhold (00:36:40) - Yeah, that's a little bit like fire. If used inappropriately, could burn down your house. But if you know how to use fire, you can cook meals for the rest of your life. Do you have any last thoughts overall, anything you'd like to share? Anything we really want to know?

Jim Rogers (00:36:54) - I will tell you again that before this is over, interest rates in the US are going to go much, much higher. The debt is staggering. It is just whenever I look at the numbers and think about them, it shocks me, stuns me because I know it's going to lead to huge, huge, huge problems. But the people who are aware and understand what's happening and thrive. So this is not some kind of disaster for everybody, but some people will do extremely well. I hope that everybody you know does extremely well.

Keith Weinhold (00:37:31) - Well, Jim Rogers, it's been a pleasure hearing from you again. As always. Thanks so much for coming out of the show.

Jim Rogers (00:37:37) - My pleasure. I hope we can do it again sometime.

Keith Weinhold (00:37:45) - Oh yes. It's good to get the bigger picture. Sage like wisdom. I'm not sure if you caught it early in the interview, but Jim is not selling short. That means he's not betting that stocks are about to take a big fall. He expects even higher interest rates when it comes to America's swelling debt. Most agree that they're just going to keep inflating their way out of it, rather than default on it. I do, too, but consider that the US actually does have a history of defaulting, like in 1971 when we told the world that you can no longer redeem our debt, IOUs for your gold, that there was defaulting on a promise, we weren't going to give them the gold anymore. Singapore is still growing fast. In fact, it's averaged about 2% annual growth over the last decade. If you discard pandemic aberrations, the value of the median Singapore condo is $1.7 million, and it is 1000ft² in size. That sort of makes you think about New York City real estate.

Keith Weinhold (00:38:52) - And in fact, I had a trip planned to Singapore in February 2020. It was a cruise, but I didn't go. That part of the itinerary got cancelled. If you remember, Covid heated up in Southeast Asia early on, so I ended up spending more of that trip in India and Dubai. As it turned out, with our accelerated expansion of the supply of dollars that have been created since 2020. Here's one result today, more than 43% of Americans have been forced to cut back over the past year, and nearly 20% have had to borrow from family or friends in order to make ends meet. And you know when politicians brag about government funding. Just remember this. They're actually expecting you to give them credit for spending your money. That's what that means. And unfortunately, no one is immune from Congress's spending, which can be reckless at times. If you don't pay for something with taxes, then you pay for it with inflation. And that's exactly the type of issue that we expect to study on at Freedom Fest, where I might be fortunate enough to meet you in two days.

Keith Weinhold (00:40:10) - Big thanks to the iconic Jim Rogers today. His website is Jim rogers.com. Coming up on the show here in future episodes soon, we're going to discuss a few components that add value to your residential real estate that really don't get discussed very often. Garages and also the vacant land that your property sits on. Also, the King of Commercial real estate is set to make his Get Rich Education debut. We'll learn about commercial real estate turmoil and the commercial sectors that higher interest rates have blown up. Well, hey, do you have family or friends that are into investing or real estate? I love it when you hit the share button on your podcasting device or whatever platform you're listening on. Everything that we do here is free, and the share button really helps the show. And be sure to follow or subscribe to the get Rich educational podcast yourself if you haven't already. Until next week, I'm your host, Keith Reinhold. Don't quit your daydream.

Speaker 6 (00:41:19) - Nothing on this show should be considered specific, personal or professional advice. Please consult an appropriate tax, legal, real estate, financial or business professional for individualized advice.

Speaker 6 (00:41:29) - Opinions of guests are their own. Information is not guaranteed. All investment strategies have the potential for profit or loss the host is operating on behalf of get Rich education LLC exclusively.

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Direct download: GREepisode509_.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 4:00am EST

Mon, 1 July 2024

Explore influential quotes and maxims from the investing and business world.

This includes from: Warren Buffett, Mark Twain, Robert Kiyosaki, Albert Einstein, Dan Sullivan, Thomas Edison, Benjamin Franklin, Suze Orman, and yours truly, Keith Weinhold.

“Why not go out on a limb? That’s where the fruit is.” -Mark Twain

“Given a 10% chance of a 100x payoff, you should take that bet every time.” -Jeff Bezos

“The stock market is a device for transferring money from the impatient to the patient.” -Warren Buffett

“Don’t live below your means; expand your means.” -Rich Dad

“The wise young man or wage earner of today invests his money in real estate.” -Andrew Carnegie

“Savers are losers. Debtors are winners.” -Robert Kiyosaki

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507: Compound Interest is Weak

Complete episode transcript:

Keith Weinhold (00:00:00) - Welcome to GRE. I'm your host, Keith Weinhold. Real estate and other investing involves people from the disappointing to the mesmerizing. People have contributed countless quotes, maxims and aphorisms on investing today. All recite and then we'll discuss dozens of influential ones and what you could learn from this timeless wisdom today on get Rich education.

Robert Syslo (00:00:29) - Since 2014, the powerful get Rich education podcast has created more passive income for people than nearly any other show in the world. This show teaches you how to earn strong returns from passive real estate, investing in the best markets without losing your time being a flipper or landlord. Show host Keith Reinhold writes for both Forbes and Rich Dad Advisors and delivers a new show every week. Since 2014, there's been millions of listeners downloads and 188 world nations. He has A-list show guests include top selling personal finance author Robert Kiyosaki. Get Rich education can be heard on every podcast platform, plus has had its own dedicated Apple and Android listener. Phone apps build wealth on the go with the get Rich education podcast.

Robert Syslo (00:01:06) - Sign up now for the get Rich education podcast or visit get Rich education.com.

Corey Coates (00:01:14) - You're listening to the show that has created more financial freedom than nearly any show in the world. This is get rich education.

Keith Weinhold (00:01:30) - Welcome to diary from Ellis Island, New York, to Ellensburg, Washington, and across 188 nations worldwide. I'm Keith Weinhold, and you're listening to get Rich education for the 508th consecutive week. Happy July. It's the first day of the quarter, and it's now the second half of the year. So late last year when you got takeaways from our goals episode here, I hope that you're still applying them today. We're doing something different on this show. For most episodes. I divulge a lot of my best guidance. Some even quote that material. But why don't I acknowledge others great quotes maxims in aphorisms along with some of my own? And then I'll tell you what you can learn from them. So yes, today it's about axioms, adages, mantras and quotes, maxims and aphorisms. Some of these you've heard, others you probably haven't.

Keith Weinhold (00:02:28) - The first one is the only place you get money is from other people. Yeah. Isn't that so solidly true? You've never received any money in your life from yourself, unless you try to counterfeit it and give it to yourself. It's always been from other people. When you realize that the only place that you do get money is from others, you realize the value of relationships and connectivity. The next one comes from the brilliant entrepreneurial coach Dan Sullivan. You are 100% disciplined to your set of habits. Gosh, this is a terrific reminder about the importance of how you have to often uncomfortably apply something new in order to up your skill set up your game. If you keep getting distracted, well, then that's a habit, and then you'll soon become disciplined to the habit of distraction. The next two go together, and they're about market investing. Nobody is more bearish than a sold out bull. And the other is bears make headlines. Bulls make money. Really the lesson there is that they're both reminders that it's better to stay invested rather than on the sidelines.

Keith Weinhold (00:03:53) - The next two are related to each other as well. Albert Einstein said, strive not to be a person of success, but rather to be a person of value. And then similarly, a more modern day spin on that. Tony Hsieh, the late CEO of Zappos. He said, Chase the vision, not the money and the money will end up following you. And the lesson here is, well, we'd all like more money, but if you focus on the money first, well then it doesn't want to follow you. You need to provide value and build the vision first, and then the money will follow and you know, to me, it's kind of like getting the girl if you act too interested in her and you get too aggressive, it's a turnoff. But if you quietly demonstrate that you're a person of value, or subtly suggest somehow in a way that their life could be improved by having a relationship with you or being around you, then they're more likely to follow. And yes, I'm fully aware that this is a heterosexual male analogy, and I use it because that is what I am.

Keith Weinhold (00:04:58) - So if you're something else, I'm sure you can follow along with that. The next quote is from Susie Kasam. Doubt kills more dreams than failure ever will. Gosh, isn't this so on point? It's about overcoming the fear in just trying. And then if you know that you've lived a life of trying, you're going to have fewer regrets. Thomas Edison yes, the light bulb guy in the co-founder of General Electric, he said the value of an idea lies in the using of it. Oh, yeah, that's a great reminder that knowledge isn't really power. It's knowledge plus action that creates power because an idea that remains idle doesn't do anyone any good. Hey, we're just getting started talking about investing in real estate quotes today here on episode 508 of get Rich education. And, you know, remarkably, these maxims and catchphrases, they're usually just 1 or 2 sentences, but yet they are so often packed with the wisdom such that these takeaways and lessons are like your three favorite ones today. They can change the trajectory of your entire life.

Keith Weinhold (00:06:20) - The next quote is one that I have said carefully bought real estate has the best risk adjusted return in. The world. And I don't need to explain that because we talk about that in some form or another on the show many weeks. Albert Schweitzer said success is not the key to happiness. Happiness is the key to success. If you love what you're doing, you will be successful. Yeah, I'd say that one is mostly true. Just mostly, though, there's no attribution here. On this next one, you might have heard the aphorism money is a terrible master, but an excellent servant. Yeah. Now, I've heard that one for a long time, and it took me a while to figure out what it really meant. And here's my take on that. If you make money, the master will. Then you'll, like, do almost anything. You'll trade your time for money. You'll sell your time for dollars instead. If you invest passively and it creates leveraged equity and income streams, oh, then money serves you.

Keith Weinhold (00:07:28) - It's no longer the master. That's what that means to me here in a real estate investor context. And, you know, it really underscores the importance of making money work for you. And is a follow up to last week's show. Whose money are we talking about here? Whose is it? It's focusing on getting other people's money to work for you, not just your own. Now, the next one is a quote that I've said on the show before, quite a while ago, though. And come on now, what would an episode about quotes, maxims and aphorisms be without some contribution from Mark Twain? Here Twain said, why not go out on a limb? That's where the fruit is. that's just so, so good in business and in so many facets of your life, constantly playing it safe is the riskiest thing that you can actually do. Because a risk averse investor places a ceiling on his or her potential in a risk averse person imposes an upper limit on their very legacy. In fact, episode 275 of the get Rich education podcast is named Go Out on Limb precisely because of this Twain quote.

Keith Weinhold (00:08:45) - So listen to that episode if you want to hear a whole lot more about that. It's actually one of Twain's lesser known quotes, but perhaps his best one. The next one comes from famous value investor Benjamin Graham. He said the individual investor should act consistently as an investor and not as a speculator. Okay, so what's the difference there? A speculator takes big risks in hopes of making large quick gains. Conversely, an investor focuses on risk appropriate strategies to pursue longer term goals, which is really consistent with being a prudent, disciplined real estate investor. Presidential advisor Bernard Baruch contributed this to the investing world. Don't try to buy at the bottom and sell at the top. It can't be done except by liars. yes. Tried to time the market. It might be tempting, but it rarely works because no one really knows when the market has reached its top or its bottom. All you can really hope to do is buy lower and sell higher. But you're never going to buy at the trough and sell at the peak.

Keith Weinhold (00:10:00) - And even buying lower and selling higher is harder to do than it sounds, even though everyone knows that's what they're supposed to do. Albert Einstein is back here, he said. Compound interest is the eighth wonder of the world. He who understands it earns it. He who doesn't pays it. And as you've learned here on the show on previous episodes, compound interest. It does work arithmetically, but not in real life would apply to the stock market. Of course. My quote contribution to the investing world on this is compound interest is weak. Compound leverage is powerful. I broke that down just last week on the show, so I won't explain that again. Now, really, a central mantra in GR principle is don't live below your means, grow your means. But I must tell you, I can't really take credit for coining that particular one because from the rich dad world, the quote is don't live below your means, expand your means. But I did hear that from them first, and though it can't be certain, I think it was Sharon letter that coined that one.

Keith Weinhold (00:11:13) - A lot of people don't know this, but she was the original co-author of the book. Rich dad, Poor Dad with Robert Kiyosaki. And Sharon has been here on the show before, and if I have her back, I will ask her if she is the one that coined that. Don't live below your means. Expand. Your means. But yeah, I mean, what this quote really means is, in this one finite life that you have here on Earth, why in the world would you not only choose to live below your means, but actually take time and effort learning how to do a better job of living below your means when it just makes you miserable after a while, when instead you could use those same efforts to grow your means and you can only cut down so far. And there's an unlimited ceiling on the upside. And now there is one caveat here. I understand that if you're just getting on your feet, well, then living below your means might be a necessity for you in the short term.

Keith Weinhold (00:12:08) - And what's an example of living below your means? It's eating junk food because it's cheap and filling, expanding your means. That might be doing something like learning how to do a cost segregation to accelerate your depreciation. Write off on your 20 unit apartment building. But you know, even if you're in hardship, I still like live within your means more than the scarcity minded guidance of live below your means. Next is a terrific one, and it really reinforces the last quote a rich man digs for gold. A poor man is concerned with the cost of a shovel. Oh yeah, that's so good. And I don't know who to attribute that to. It's about growing your means and taking on and actually embracing calculated risks. Not every risk, calculated risk. And you can also live that regret free life this way. In fact, episode 91 of this show is called A Rich Man Digs for gold. So you can get more inspiration for that from that episode. Okay, this one comes from the commodities world where there are notoriously volatile prices.

Keith Weinhold (00:13:18) - How do you make a million? You start with 2 million. now, this next one is one that I don't really agree with that much. You really heard this a lot the last few years. It applies when you have a mortgage on a property, and that is the house is the liability and the debt is the asset. I know people are trying to be crafty. People kind of use this pithy quote when they're discussing how those that locked in at those artificially low mortgage rates years ago considered the debt so good that it's an asset. It's like, yeah, I know what you're saying. And I love good real estate debt and leverage and all that, of course. But really, for you, truly, then if the House is a liability and the debt is an asset like you're saying, then give away the house to someone else. If it's such a liability, and keep the debt to pay off yourself if it's really such an asset. A little humorous here. Next, Forbes magazine said, how do you make a million marry a millionaire? Or better yet, divorce one then more? Real estate ish is Jack Miller's quote how do you become a millionaire? Well, you borrow $1 million and you pay it off.

Keith Weinhold (00:14:31) - And I think we can all relate to that here at GRE. Better yet, borrow $1 million and don't pay it off yourself. Have tenants and inflation pay it down for you. And you know, inflation is getting to be a problem for any of these, like century old classic quotes that have the word millionaire in them. Because having a net worth of a million that actually used to mean you were wealthy, and now it just means you're not poor, but you might even be below middle class. Now, you probably heard of some of these next ones, but let's talk about what they mean. Warren Buffett said the stock market is a device for transferring money from the impatient to the patient. And then Benjamin Franklin said an investment in knowledge pays the best interest. I mean, yeah, that's pretty on point stuff there when it comes to investing. Nothing will pay off more than educating yourself. So do some research before you jump in. And you've almost certainly heard this next one from Warren Buffett.

Speaker 4 (00:15:28) - You want to be greedy when others are fearful, and you want to be fearful when others are greedy.

Keith Weinhold (00:15:32) - That is, be prepared to invest in a down market and to get out in a soaring market. As per the philosophy of Warren Buffett, it's far too easy for investors to lose perspective when something big goes wrong. A lot of people panic and sell their investments. And looking at history. The markets recovered from the 2008 financial crisis. They recover from the dotcom crash. They even recover from the Great Depression, although it took a long time. So they're probably going to get through whatever comes next as well, if you really follow that through what Buffett said there. Well, then at a time like this now, I mean, you could be looking at shedding stocks as they continue to approach and break all time highs. Carlos Slim, hello said with a good perspective on history, we can have a better understanding of the past and present and thus a clear vision of the future. Sure. Okay, that quote like that probably didn't sound very snappy and it's really simple, but he's telling us that if you want to know the future, check on the past.

Keith Weinhold (00:16:39) - Not always, but often. It will tell you the future directory, or at least that trajectories range. And this is similar to how I often say take history over hunches, like when you're applying economics to real estate investing. Now this next guy has been a controversial figure, but George Soros said it's not whether you're right or wrong that's important, but how much money you make when you're right and how much you lose when you're wrong. Okay, I think that quote means that too many investors become almost obsessed with being right, even when the gains are small, winning big, and cutting your losses when you're wrong. They are more important than being right. Amazon founder Jeff Bezos said given a 10% chance of a 100 times payoff, you should take that bet every time. All right. Now, that's rather applicable to the high flying risk of, say, investing in startup companies. We'll see. Bezos himself, he took a lot of those bets, a 10% chance at a 100 X payoff. And that is exactly why he's one of the richest people in the world.

Keith Weinhold (00:17:49) - Now, if you haven't heard of John Bogle before, you should know who he is. He co-founded the Vanguard Group, and he's credited with popularizing the very concept of the index fund. I mean, Bogle transformed the entire investment management industry. John Bogle said, don't look for the needle in the haystack. Just buy the haystack. Okay? If it seems too hard to say, find the next Amazon. Well, John Bogle came up with the only sure way to get in on the action. By buying an index fund, investors can put a little bit of money into every stock, and that way they never miss out on the stock market's biggest winners. They're only going to have a small part. And what that means to a real estate investor is, say, rather than buying a single property in a really shabby neighborhood, that neighborhood will drag down your one property. So to apply boggles by the whole haystack quote. What you would do then is raise money to buy the entire block, or even the entire neighborhood and fix it up, therefore raising the values of all of the properties.

Keith Weinhold (00:18:55) - Back to Warren Buffett. He had this analogy about the high jump event from track and field. He said, I don't look to jump over seven foot bars. I look around for one foot bars that I can step over. Yeah. All right. I mean, investors often do make things too hard on themselves. The value stocks that Buffett prefers, they frequently outperform the market, making success easier. Supposedly sophisticated strategies like short selling. A lot of times they lose money in the long run. So profiting from those is more difficult. Now, you might have heard the quote, and it's from Philip Fisher. He said the stock market is filled with individuals who know the price of everything but the value of nothing. Yeah. I mean, that's really another testament to the fact that investing without an education and research that's ultimately going to lead to pretty regrettable investment decisions. Research is a lot more than just listening to the popular opinion out there, because people often just then invest on hype or momentum without understanding things like a company's fundamentals or what value they create for society, or being attentive to price to earnings ratios.

Keith Weinhold (00:20:08) - Even Robert Arnott said in investing, what is comfortable is rarely profitable. You know, that's pretty on point at times. You have to step out of your comfort zone to realize any big gains. Know the boundaries of your comfort zone. Practice stepping out of it in small doses. As much as you need to know the market, you need to know yourself too. Can you handle staying in when everyone else is jumping out, or do you have the guts to get out during the biggest rally of the century? You've got to have the stomach to be contrarian and see it through. Robert Allen said. How many millionaires do you know who have become wealthy by investing in savings accounts? I rest my case. That's the end of what Robert G. Allen said. Yeah, though inflation could cut out the millionaires part. Yeah I mean point well taken. No one builds wealth through a savings account. Now a savings account might be the right place for your emergency fund. It has a role, but it's not a wealth builder.

Keith Weinhold (00:21:10) - I mean, since we left the gold standard back in 1971, so many dollars get printed most years that savers become losers. Which, hey, that does bring us to Robert Kiyosaki. He's been a guest on the show here with us for times now, one of our most frequent guests ever. Here he is. The risks at Port Arthur. And you probably know what I'm going to say. He is, he said. Savers or losers? Debtors or winners of something that your parents probably would never want to know that you subscribed to your grandparents, especially. Yes, he is one of the kings of iconoclastic finance quotes. And as you know, I've got some contributions to that realm myself. But what Kiyosaki is saying is if you save 100 K under a mattress and inflation is 5%, well, now after a year you've only got 95 K in purchasing power. So therefore get out of dollars and get them invested. Even better than if you can get debt tied to a cash flowing leveraged asset. In fact, episode 212 of this very show is named Savers are Losers.

Keith Weinhold (00:22:18) - Debtors are winners. So I go deep on that theme there. We've got more as we look at it and break down some of the great real estate investing quotes, maxims and aphorisms. They generally get more real estate ish as we go here, including ones that you haven't heard before and dropping, quote, bombs here that absolutely have to be enunciated and brought to light ahead. A group of Real Estate quotes episode. Hey, learn more about what we do here to get rich education comm get rich education.com. And do you have friends or family that are into investing or real estate? I love it when you hit the share button on your pod catching device or whatever platform you're listening on. Everything that we do here is free and the share button really helps the show. Be sure to follow or subscribe yourself if you haven't done that more. Straight ahead. I'm Keith Reinhold, you're listening to get Rich education. Your bank is getting rich off of you. The national average bank account pays less than 1% on your savings.

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Speaker 5 (00:25:02) - This is Rich dad advisor Ken McElroy. Listen to get Rich education with Keith Reinhold and don't quit your daydream.

Keith Weinhold (00:25:20) - Welcome back to Get Your Education. I'm your host, Keith Weiner. We're having some fun today, looking at and breaking down some of the great investing quotes, maxims, and aphorisms. Andrew Carnegie said, the wise young man or wage earner of today invests his money in real estate. Another one for Mark Twain here by land. They're not making it any more. You probably heard one or both of those. And yeah, Twain's time predated that of those islands that are built in Dubai. But Twain's point is still well taken. There is an inherent scarcity in land. Louis Glickman drove the point home about real estate investing when he simply said, the best investment on Earth is Earth. A Hebrew proverb goes as far as saying he is not a fool man who does not own a piece of land.

Keith Weinhold (00:26:18) - Wow, that's pretty profound right there. And if you're a female listener, yes, many of these timeless quotes from yesteryear harken back to a period when all of the landowners were men. President Franklin D Roosevelt, he has a real estate quote that you probably heard, but let's see what I think about it. Let's talk about it. Here it is. Real estate cannot be lost or stolen, nor can it be carried away, purchased with common sense, paid for in full and managed with reasonable care. It is about the safest investment in the world. That's from FDR. That's pretty good. I just don't know about the paid in full part because you lost your leverage. FDR, Johnny Isakson, a US senator, said, in the real estate business, you learn more about people and you learn more about community issues. You learn more about life. You learn more about the impact of government, probably more than any other profession that I know of. And that's good, really on point stuff there.

Keith Weinhold (00:27:23) - If you're a direct real estate investor like we are here, you really learn those things. If you're in, say, a REIT, well, you're not going to be exposed to that type of knowledge in experiences. Hazrat Ali Khan is a spiritualist and he said, some people look for a beautiful place, others make a place beautiful. Yeah, that's some mystical motivation for the house flipper or the value add real estate syndicator right there, Political economist John Stuart Mill, he said something you've probably heard before. Landlords grow rich in their sleep without working, risking or economizing. Oh, yes, you can have a real estate quotes episode without that classic one. Although rather than landlords growing rich in their sleep, the phrase real estate investors is likely more accurate. Don't wait to buy real estate. Buy real estate and wait. You've surely heard that one. You might not know that it was actor Will Rogers with that particular attribution, entrepreneur Marshall Field said buying real estate is not only the best way, the quickest way, the safest way, but the only way to become wealthy, billionaire John Paulson said.

Keith Weinhold (00:28:45) - I think buying a home is the best investment any individual can make. That's what Paulson said. let's give Paulson the benefit of the doubt here. Although Robert Kiyosaki famously said that a house is not an asset because an asset puts money in your pocket and your home takes money out of your pocket, well, a home is something that you get to live in, build family memories in, and you do get some leverage if you keep debt on your own home. So maybe that's more of what's behind John Paulson's maxim there. Notable entrepreneur Jesse Jones. He said I have always liked real estate, farmland, pasture land, timberland and city property. I have had experience with all of them. I guess I just naturally like the good Earth, which is the foundation of all our wealth. Business mogul Tamir Sapir said if you're not going to put your money in real estate, where else? Yeah, I guess that's a good question. Anthony hit real estate professional. He said to be successful in real estate, you must always inconsistently put your client's best interests first.

Keith Weinhold (00:30:00) - When you do, your personal needs will be realized beyond your greatest expectations. Yeah, I think he's talking about being a team player there. And if you're a real estate agent, it's about putting your client's needs over yours. If it's a landlord, perhaps then you're thinking about putting your tenants first and meeting their needs so that they stay in your property longer. Here's a quote that I've got to say I don't understand. It's from real estate mogul and shark tank shark Barbara Corcoran. She says a funny thing happens in real estate. When it comes back, it comes back like gangbusters. I don't really know what that means, and I don't know what a gangbuster is yet. I see that quote all over the place. I can't explain why that would be popular. I don't get it at all now, novelist Anthony Trollope said it is a comfortable feeling to know that you stand on your own ground. Land is about the only thing that can't fly away. Entrepreneur Armstrong Williams is here with this gem. Now one thing I tell everyone is to learn about real estate.

Keith Weinhold (00:31:12) - Repeat after me. Real estate provides the highest returns, the greatest values in the least risk. Yeah, that's a real motivator of a quote. As long as one knows what they're doing and buys, right? All of that could very well be true from Armstrong Williams. It was none other than John de Rockefeller that said the major fortunes in America have been made in land. Yeah, it's just really plain and simple there. John Jacob Astor, he got specific and more strategic here. This is Astor. He said, buy on the fringe and wait by land near a growing city. Buy real estate when other people want to sell and hold what you buy. I mean, yeah, that's pretty much an all timer right there from Astor. Winston Churchill said land monopoly is not only monopoly, it is by far the greatest of monopolies. It is a perpetual monopoly, and it is the mother of all other forms of monopoly. Yeah, interesting from Churchill. And there's a good chance that you haven't heard that one before.

Keith Weinhold (00:32:26) - Perhaps. So say, for example, if one owns real estate on all four corners of a busy street intersection, then that quote applies. It's like you've got a monopoly on a popular intersection. Russell Sage said. This real estate is an imperishable asset, ever increasing in value. It is the most solid security that human ingenuity has devised. It is the basis of all security and about the only indestructible security. That's from Russell Sage. And, you know, you know, something here is we've got lots of real estate specific quotes in this segment is that it is rare to nonexistent to see any negative quotes about real estate, about anyone saying anything bad about it. It's all positive stuff. Waxing eloquent about real estate. And there are a lot of reasons to do that. But not every real estate moment is great. Maybe this is all because nothing quotable is said when you find out that one of your tenants is a drug dealer. Well. Finance expert Susie Orman says this owning a home is a keystone of wealth, both financial affluence and emotional security.

Keith Weinhold (00:33:46) - Yeah, a lot like an earlier quote. A home is the only investment that you get the benefit of living in. Peter Lynch said. No, what you own and why you own it. I mean, that is short, sweet and it's just a really good reminder to you. Do you now own any properties that you would not buy again? And if you wouldn't buy it again, then should you consider selling it now? Not FDR, but Theodore Roosevelt. He said every person who invests. In well selected real estate in a growing section of a prosperous community, adopts the surest and safest method of becoming independent for real estate is the basis of wealth. That's Theodore Roosevelt. Yeah. He reiterates that you want to own most of your property in growing places, something that really hasn't changed over all this time. Coke Odyssey contributes to this. The house he looked at today and wanted to think about until tomorrow, maybe the same house someone looked at yesterday and will buy today. Oh, gosh, that's true.

Keith Weinhold (00:34:58) - I think that everyone has the story of the one that got away. Margaret Mitchell said the land is the only thing worth working for. Worth fighting for, worth dying for. Because it's the only thing that lasts. Yeah. Wow. Some real passion there from Margaret. Sir John Templeton said the four most dangerous words in investing are. It's different this time. Yeah. I think what Templeton is advising is to follow market trends in history. Don't speculate that this particular time will be any different. Warren Buffett said wide diversification is only required when investors do not understand what they are doing. Yeah, that insight from Buffett. That's pretty applicable when you understand that you've got to get good in a niche and then get rich in that niche, meaning being narrow. Why diversification? That's likely better when you're just beginning and you don't know much, but then you want to get niche in your big earning years. And then perhaps when you're older, you get diversified once again because you're more interested in just protecting what you have.

Keith Weinhold (00:36:15) - Robert Kiyosaki said it's not how much money you make, but how much money you keep, how hard it works for you, and how many generations you keep it for. Now there's something with tax efficiencies and more in that Kiyosaki quote. My friend Dave Zook, billionaire dollar syndicator and frequent guest on this show, he said, you can be conventional or you can be wealthy. Pick one. Oh yeah, I love that from Dave. Because if you do what everyone else does, you'll only get what everyone else got. And I've contributed some material here over 508 episodes of this show. Although I won't claim the eminence of some of the other luminaries of the past few centuries discussed today. I've been known to say these. You do care about what others think. That's your reputation. I've been known to say the scarcity mentality is abundant and the abundance mentality is scarce. And some say that in real estate, I was the first one to point out back in 2015 that real estate pays five ways. Another that I have is a critique of delayed gratification.

Keith Weinhold (00:37:31) - Now, some delayed gratification is okay early on in your life, but I've said too much delayed gratification becomes denied gratification. Here on Earth, you live just one life. Hey. And the other day, an entrepreneurial friend. I don't know. He seemed to think that I have the right life balance. I'm not sure if that's true or not, but here's what I told him. And I think he said this because he often sees me out to exercising and things. I told him I give my best to exercise. Business only gets left over time. That's because exercise is hard and making money is easy. Yeah, there it is. That's my take on that. And that's it for today. I hope that you got some learning, some perspective, a few laughs and that some thought was spurred inside your mind in order to give you at least one big, rich novel takeaway here. And it's probably best for you to refer back to this episode of quotes, maxims, and aphorisms. At times when you're feeling shaky about your investment decision making, or just other times of uncertainty.

Keith Weinhold (00:38:49) - Until next week, I'm your host, Keith Reinhold, and there's something else that I've been known to say. Don't quit your day. Drink.

Speaker 6 (00:39:00) - Nothing on this show should be considered specific, personal or professional advice. Please consult an appropriate tax, legal, real estate, financial or business professional for individualized advice. Opinions of guests are their own. Information is not guaranteed. All investment strategies have the potential for profit or loss. The host is operating on behalf of get Rich education LLC exclusively.

Keith Weinhold (00:39:28) - The preceding program was brought to you by your home for wealth building. Get rich education.com.

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506: Properties are Vanishing, More $2M Median Home Prices

Complete episode transcript:

Keith Weinhold (00:00:01) - Welcome to GRE. I'm your host, Keith Weinhold. Compound interest is weak. What kind of iconoclastic heresy is that? Oh, I've got even more. Including. Don't get your money to work for you. This is a wealth building show. So why don't we discuss 401 days in IRAs here? It's precisely because they're not designed to build wealth. We'll get into that then. A way you can achieve higher property, cash and cash returns than you can with buy and hold real estate today and get rich education.

Robert Syslo (00:00:38) - Since 2014, the powerful get Rich education podcast has created more passive income for people than nearly any other show in the world. This show teaches you how to earn strong returns from passive real estate, investing in the best markets without losing your time being a flipper or landlord. Show host Keith Wine, who writes for both Forbes and Rich Dad Advisors and delivers a new show every week. Since 2014, there's been millions of listeners downloads and 188 world nations. He has A-list show guests include top selling personal finance author Robert Kiyosaki.

Robert Syslo (00:01:06) - Get Rich education can be heard on every podcast platform. Plus it has its own dedicated Apple and Android listener. Phone apps build wealth on the go with the get Rich education podcast. Sign up now for the get Rich education podcast or visit get Rich education.com.

Corey Coates (00:01:23) - You're listening to the show that has created more financial freedom than nearly any show in the world. This is get rich education.

Keith Weinhold (00:01:39) - We're going to go from Saint Helena Island to Helena, Montana and across 188 nations worldwide. I'm Keith Weinhold, and you are listening to get Rich education. Compound interest is weak. Compound leverage is powerful. And with both available to most anyone, why don't you have more leverage in your financial life? That was a long time listener. You probably understand that if you're a newer listener, your reaction to that is like, wait, what? I mean, your inner self is telling you something like that challenges my existing longtime belief about how compound interest builds wealth. In fact, I will fight to protect this core belief. Even Albert Einstein purportedly called compound interest the eighth wonder of the world.

Keith Weinhold (00:02:36) - All right, well, let's break down compound interest until it looks as impotent as it is, as pathetic as it is, and as fallacious as compound interest is in the sense that it applies to your life as an investor. Now understand, I once thought the same limiting way that perhaps you once did, and that most others still do. When I was out of college and at my first job, I thought that there could be nothing better than getting my money to work for me with compound interest. Oh, and then maybe even the layer on top of that with the tax efficiencies of, say, a 401 K, 400 3B4 57 plan or an IRA. Then I took a real interest in this stuff, and I soon learned that I don't want any of those things because they don't build wealth. I don't want compound interest. I don't want to focus on getting my money to work for me. And I don't want any of those government sponsored retirement plans either. And that's why today I don't have any of them now, I remember when I had this one particular appointment, a financial planning appointment a few years ago, and I had it with what I'll call a conventional financial planning firm.

Keith Weinhold (00:03:56) - Maybe I remember it so well because it was an in-person meeting. It was in a tall office building that I went to and visited in downtown Anchorage, Alaska. And when I was in this money manager's office where basically what he was trying to do is win me as a new client. That's fine. That's his business model. Well, he had this big paper and cardboard sort of laminated charts thing resting on an easel, and this chart was prominently placed in his office so that I or anyone could see it. It showed the rate of return over time of. And I forget which index it plotted. It was either the Dow or the S&P, but no matter. It showed the return line going up and to the right for over 100 years. Your classic chart go up. It gave the impression to a prospective new client like me that, oh well, I had the opportunity to buy into this. And if I just invest my capital with this money manager and pay him fees for managing it for me now, I was at the point where I was starting to become better educated on these sorts of things compared to a layperson, for sure.

Keith Weinhold (00:05:06) - And I had been a real estate investor for a while at this point. Well, that physical chart in his office resting on an easel, it showed something like an 8 or 10% stock market return over time. Let's just be kind and call it 10% annually. And that's the first time in my life that I ever remember asking the question when I asked that money manager something like the chart shows a 10% market return, but what would my return be after inflation? Emotion taxes, your fees and volatility. Mic drop. You could hear a pin drop. I'll tell you what. That money manager almost froze. He didn't know what to say. I just remember, he began his reply, starting with talking about how inflation was low at the time. And yes, CPI inflation was low at that time, but he just didn't have a good answer for me. He was overwhelmed. He may have not ever had anyone ask him a question like that in his life. That sure is how he acted. And needless to say, I left his office that day without ever becoming one of his investors.

Keith Weinhold (00:06:17) - All right, so then let's dig into it. I've scratched the surface a little. What is the problem with, say, a 10% average annual return compounded over time? I mean, that sounds rather attractive when it's presented that way. Well, first, what do you think that the real rate of. Long term inflation is some make the case that it's still 15% today, even though the current CPI is 3 or 3.5%, and anyone that's looked at it feels that measure, the CPI is understated. So what do you think you want to use 6%. How about 6% as the long term true diminished purchasing power of the dollar? Okay then will your 10% stock market return -6% or you're already down to a 4% inflation adjusted return? Then there's the emotional component to buy and sell at exactly the wrong time, because no matter what people say they're going to do, most people want to sell when stocks are low because they're discouraged and they're just tired of taking their losses and they want to cut their loss. And then conversely, people want to buy when stocks rise because they're encouraged and they say they're a momentum investor and they experience FOMO if they're not in and riding the stocks up, well, what did you just do then? You just sold low and bought high.

Keith Weinhold (00:07:42) - How much does that emotional effect drag down your 4% inflation adjusted stock return that were already down to now? I mean, are you already at less than zero? Then there's taxes. Even in a 401 or IRA, you either pay the tax now or you pay the tax later. It's not tax free. How far below zero is your real return? Now that it's taxed? The IRS won't adjust your tax for inflation on a capital gain. Then tack on the investment fees, which can be 2% or higher. If you've got a professional money manager like the guy I met with in downtown Anchorage, or the fees can be really low if you are in an index fund. But how far below zero are you now? And that brings us to the last drag on compound interest in the stock market. We're not even done yet, remember? Okay, all we've done now is deduct out inflation, emotion, taxes and fees. What about adjusting it down further for volatility. Let's look at how deleterious volatility is to this floored compound.

Keith Weinhold (00:08:48) - Interest builds wealth thesis right here. Because you know on a lot of episodes we've just glossed over that. It just comes down to math. If you're up 10% one year and down 10% the next year, you're not back to even run the math and you'll see that you've lost 1%. That's just simply math. And now I'm going to get wonky here for a moment, and I'll use a more extreme example to demonstrate my volatility point for you. But I must get that way in order to debunk this myth about how compound interest builds wealth, or the getting your money to work for you builds wealth. Time spent making up lost returns is not the same as positively compounding your return. Any time you're looking at the annual average performance of an investment, it is vital to check how that performance has been calculated. And bear with me here for a minute, because this is substantive. Say your collection of stocks or whatever it is, just your overall portfolio value. It doesn't matter. Say it's up 50% one year, down 40% the next, then 50 up 40, down 50, up 40 down again.

Keith Weinhold (00:10:05) - All right. That right there was a 5% average annual return. But your average annual return. That is a lie because a 5% return through arithmetic performance. That sounds better than what really just happened to your money. So in a mutual fund prospectus, you might see that as a headline number, the 5% average annual return. But that's a lie in the small print. That's where you're more likely to see this CAGR, the compounded annual growth rate, and the CAGR. That's usually going to be worse than what the average annual number is. That headline number. And in our example, the CAGR is -5.1%. In this case that's the geometric figure. That's what you really want to look at not the arithmetic one. It looked like the market was up 5%, but your real return on your money was down 5.1%, a delta of 10.1% then. And the more volatile your returns are, the wider and wider this difference becomes. Now, if there were zero volatility, your average annual return, the arithmetic thing and the CAGR, the geometric thing, they would be the same and there wouldn't be any need to have this discussion.

Keith Weinhold (00:11:35) - This discussion is. Germane because volatility exists in the stock market and its related derivatives. So small differences over time compound and see really the problem is over the decades in your conventional retirement account, if you think that you're going to be quadrupling your money over time, but you only double your money over time, now you can see how this becomes a major problem. Come time for your retirement when it's too late. All right. Now, if you didn't follow that part because there were a few numbers flying around, just remember this time spent making up for lost returns is not the same as positively compounding your return inflation, emotion, taxes, fees, and volatility that just broke down any conventionally invested nest egg to less than nothing. This is why volatility is worse for investments than most people think. Well, we had someone write in to our general mailbox a while ago. And by the way, we like to hear from you. You can always communicate with us here at GR either through email or voice at get Rich education.

Keith Weinhold (00:12:52) - Com slash contact that's get rich education comment. I'd love to hear from you and really appreciate having you as a listener. Well, a listener wrote in on our inbox. They're asking why, if we're a wealth building show, why don't we talk about the benefits of 401 or IRAs? Well, it's squarely because those things don't create wealth. They aren't even designed to build wealth, but they create the illusion of doing so, partly due to the myth of compound interest that I just explained. But there's more outside of any employer match for IRAs and just generally investing cash in mutual funds or stocks or ETFs, they all have another gigantic problem. It could be a problem even bigger than the compound interest fallacy, which I just addressed. And that is all you're trying to do is get your money to work for you. Getting your money to work for you does not build wealth. Show me some evidence that it does. All right. Well, what's the problem here with these 41K and IRAs? I think you know, where I'm going is that you don't get any leverage.

Keith Weinhold (00:14:06) - Where is your leverage? Every single dollar that you lock away there means that you don't get the opportunity to ethically use three x or four x of what you've invested in OPM, other people's money, which you can build wealth off of. Where is your compound leverage with those conventional vehicles? It's gone. It never existed in the first place. Plus there's typically zero monthly cash flow. Plus you could have it invested where you don't legally have to pay any tax. Instead any tax, because retirement fund investors either pay tax today or pay tax later. Real estate can permanently mitigate income tax like you can get with real estate depreciation and absolutely zero capital gains tax on your real estate with the 1031 exchange. But let's not let the compound interest versus compound leverage case go to rest here just yet okay. How does then compound leverage build wealth instead? Well, the most available means for you to get access to leverage OPM is with real estate. Well, let's just look at what's going on today. Today, per the Fhfa, national home prices, they're up 6.6% year over year.

Keith Weinhold (00:15:26) - That's the latest figure that's not too different than historic norms. All right then. Well, if one year ago you had made a 20% down payment on a property that's 5 to 1 leverage, so you just take your 6.6% home price appreciation rate multiplied by five, and there's 33% for you. You went from a 6.6% return on the asset to a 33% return on your money, because you got the return on both your money and the bank's money. The majority is from the bank, OPM. So if you got a 33% return in year one, maybe it's 26% the next year and 21% the following year. It will go down over time as equity accumulates. And that's compound leverage. That's the wealth builder. And notice what else? Now that you know how destructive volatility is to returns, there is less volatility in real estate asset values. So now you're really on the path because you have a durable wealth builder. And then of course in real estate those high leverage returns are one of just. Five ways you can expect to be paid, but that one is the biggest leveraged appreciation.

Keith Weinhold (00:16:41) - That is the biggest return source of the five over time. And now you better understand why you don't want to set up your investor life to optimize getting your money to work for you. You don't want that. It's to get other people's money to work for you. And my gosh, mathematics makes compound interest in getting your money to work for you look amazing. But the real world proves that compound interest in getting your money to work for you is a farce, and it will keep you working at a job, maybe a soulless job until you're old. But the sheep believe it. You're listening to this show, so you're not a sheep. You're not among the masses. If you do what everyone else does, you'll only get what everyone else got. If you want wealth for yourself. All right, well, then, do you see that? You would have to think differently. And do you think that you would have to learn new things and then act differently than the masses? Well, yes, of course you do.

Keith Weinhold (00:17:41) - You can either go through life as a home run hitter or as a bunter. Most people are afraid to do anything other than learn how to be a bunter. And that's why the most popular personal finance platforms give the worst advice that limit you and keep you small. It's because they're talking to people with average or below average mindsets, not below average intelligence, but an audience of average or below average mindsets, which are the masses and they're just striving to get to a level of mediocrity, okay. They cater to financially irresponsible people that are just trying to get up to a mediocre level. And you know what? I was recently listening to one of these shows, I'll call it, a get rid of your debt and invest for compound interest and get your money to work for you shows. One caller called in. He and his wife got a $60,000 windfall from an heir. And they're wondering what they should do with the money. And they owned a home valued at 500 K, with 320 K left on the mortgage, which was a 3.25% interest.

Keith Weinhold (00:18:53) - And the guidance that the host had for this caller. I'm not kidding. Here was to use the 60 K to pay the 320 K mortgage down, so then they'd only owe 260 on the mortgage. I'm not kidding. That was the recommended course of action. And this is not an aberration. I've heard this same guidance with other callers on this conventional show. I mean, the opportunity cost of such a misguided move, what has he done when he pays down his mortgage? 60 K like that. He lost liquidity, he lost leverage. And it didn't even help with his cash flow. Because with a fixed amortizing loan, your monthly payment is the same the following month. Anyway, that 60 K, instead of being used to pay down a mortgage that could have been leveraged again by purchasing, say, a 250 to 300 K rental property. So my point is that conventional guidance does not build wealth in financial freedom. When you're actually young enough to enjoy it, you do things like learn how to get out of debt and then solely grind for decades, doing so, all while paying the opportunity cost of being leveraged less for the opportunity cost of targeting something like debt free, which is the wrong target rather than being financially free.

Keith Weinhold (00:20:18) - It's just like, if you want a wealth coach, well, then you don't hire and listen to guidance from a mediocrity coach. It's the same is if you want to learn how to skydive, then don't ask a basketball coach because you're going to die. We practice what we preach here at GRA. Now me what would I do if I had a paid off rental property or paid off home? Well, first, I've never had any residential rental property paid off in my life. Not one. Although I could, I'd recognize the opportunity cost of zero leverage. But just say, hypothetically, a paid off home fell in my lap. What's the next thing I do? I would go get the maximum loan against it, and then I'd have access to cash that I could invest in other properties. But what about these new loans that I'm taking out? What happens with them? I'm not concerned because both tenants and inflation pay it down passively, without my involvement at all, without my grinding for it at all, without me trading my time for dollars at all.

Keith Weinhold (00:21:27) - Well, I am really glad that we got into this here in the first segment of today's show. If you're near the show, it probably gave you a starting point for. Some new topics to search. Maybe you should start with learning the difference and reading more about average annual return versus compounded annual growth rate. It's really eye opening. And yes, you've heard me say on the show before that stock returns are dragged into negative territory with inflation, emotion, taxes, fees and volatility. And what's new here today is that I took the volatility component and broke it all the way down for you. There is a real paradox out there in America and elsewhere. You know, people spend all this time learning about how work works, zero time learning about how money works. And yet money is the main reason that people go to work. So congratulations so far on educating yourself some more today. Suffice to say, compound interest does not build wealth. If you're focused on getting only your money to work for you, you are really missing out on leverage through OPM.

Keith Weinhold (00:22:38) - And the good news here is that you actually don't have to believe everything that you think. Even if you thought the same way for years or decades. Chances are you're by yourself when you're listening to me right now. So that way you can change your mind all on your own without anyone thinking that you're wishy washy. Is it iconoclastic? Yeah, sure it is. If you're going to live an outsized life, if you're going to have an outsized impact in this world and on others, then you don't want to get labeled as normal. I mean, me, myself. I want nothing to do with normal. You can learn more on topics like this with our Don't Quit Your Day Dream email letter that makes it visual for you. Get it free at get Rich education com slash letter I write every word of the letter myself again. Get it at get Rich education.com/letter or it's quicker while it's on your mind right now. Text gray to 66866 to get the letter. Text gray to 66866. More straight ahead on how to potentially achieve cash on cash returns of 20% plus with real estate today.

Keith Weinhold (00:23:58) - That's next. I'm Keith Reinhold. You're listening to get Rich education. Your bank is getting rich off of you. The national average bank account pays less than 1% on your savings. If your money isn't making 4%, you're losing your hard earned cash to inflation. Let the liquidity fund help you put your money to work with minimum risk. Your cash generates up to an 8% return with compound interest year in and year out. Instead of earning less than 1% sitting in your bank account, the minimum investment is just 25 K. You keep getting paid until you decide you want your money back there. Decade plus track record proves they've always paid their investors 100% in full and on time. And I would know, because I'm an investor, to earn 8%. Hundreds of others are text family 266866. Learn more about Freedom Family Investments Liquidity Fund on your journey to financial freedom through passive income. Text family to 66866. Role under the specific expert with income property you need. Ridge lending Group Nmls 42056. In gray history from beginners to veterans, they provided our listeners with more mortgages than anyone.

Keith Weinhold (00:25:21) - It's where I get my own loans for single family rentals up to four Plex's. Start your pre-qualification and chat with President Charlie Ridge personally. They'll even customize a plan tailored to you for growing your portfolio. Start at Ridge Lending group.com Ridge lending group.com.

Ken (00:25:48) - This is Rich dad advisor Ken McElroy. Listen to get Rich education with Keith Reinhold and don't quit your daydream.

Keith Weinhold (00:26:06) - We're talking about how to profit more and faster than with buy and hold property with the BR real estate investing strategy will tell you more about a live virtual event tomorrow night, with more about it where you can attend from the comfort of your own home and have any of your questions answered in real time. And can is with me today to talk about it. Welcome in. Hello, Kate. Thank you. Thank you for the invitation to be.

Ken (00:26:32) - A part of the get Rich education podcast.

Keith Weinhold (00:26:34) - Oh, we're honored to have you. Tell us a little more about yourself. First, you're Memphis based and you're part of a real estate family. Your wife is a realtor.

Keith Weinhold (00:26:44) - Yes, that is true. I have been in.

Ken (00:26:46) - The real estate industry in Memphis, Tennessee since 1992. I believe I was born to be in real estate. If real estate's in my DNA. If you cut me open little houses, duplexes, commercial buildings and multifamily apartments will drip out. I am pure real estate.

Keith Weinhold (00:27:05) - And you definitely came up in the right place for that. For us major metros, you're in perhaps the best cap rate market. Now. A lot of people are familiar with fix and flip real estate, maybe something that they've seen on HGTV where you buy low, you fix it up and you sell it for more. In fact, a lot of people think that's what real estate investing means. And others, they think of real estate investing more passively by identifying a good property that's already fixed up for you with a tenant in it, and ready property management. That's sort of the turnkey way. Tell us more about the BR, where I think of it as using elements of both the fix and flip world and the buy and hold world, putting them together to produce high returns and even infinite returns.

Ken (00:27:54) - That is correct. So what we're doing and what we offer, it's a hybrid, turnkey and BR, we call it BR key a nice. So basically that acronym as you know it stands for buy, renovate, rent, refinance and repeat. And we've added the key to it because we do all of the turnkey worked for our investor clients. We do all of the heavy lifting. So we turn BR into a passive investment where we find properties through our sourcing, we vet the properties and then the properties are offered to investors in as is condition. We provide a desktop appraisal which provides a future estimated after repair value after the property has been renovated. We seek out appraisers who are certified, who are licensed in the areas in the markets that we provide properties in, so that we're not just shooting at the door on a future value, basing the values on what Trulia says or Zillow or Redfin and what have you. So it's a real certified value from a licensed appraiser. Then we have licensed contractors to provide the scope of work and an estimate on how much the renovations are going to cost.

Ken (00:29:24) - And then we do we have a relationship with an in-house property manager. The property manager markets the property, leases the property out, and our target market is partially section A, government subsidized tenants, because we found that in the Memphis, Tennessee area is that section eight pays more than market rate in most instances. And I like to say that section eight rent payments, the recession proof, they're Covid proof, they're pandemic proof. I have not received a call yet. And section eight says, hey, we could not get your section eight payment out because of Joe Biden not being able to sign the check, or he didn't work last week, or Donald Trump could not sign the check or what have you. But time and time again, those section eight payments, even during the pandemic, they always showed up at the beginning of the month without fail.

Keith Weinhold (00:30:25) - I have rented to section eight tenants myself, and I can attest to that. That check just keeps coming in. You have to have a case manager come in and take a look at the property.

Keith Weinhold (00:30:38) - Prior to that section eight tenant being placed. Section eight a government subsidized housing program for those that qualify. But now that we've talked about the tenant, some what which is the rent are if we look back at the first are in the borough that is the rehab. You could also call that first are renovation. And really what you're doing there is you're eliminating friction for a lot of people because one thing that turns. People away from the Bir or concerns them about the BR. Is that first r the rehab because they find it daunting or intimidating to manage contractors? A lot of people don't want to have to manage contractors, and those that do, they don't want to do it again. But the thing is, is that you formed a team of contractors, property managers, project managers to manage those contractors and lenders to assist with that entire BR key process, making it pretty hands off for the investor.

Ken (00:31:37) - That's absolutely correct. So we have the relationships with contractors your locally that we've vetted that have proven themselves.

Ken (00:31:46) - They're true blue and these contractors have withstood the test of time. We develop relationships with electricians, plumbers, heating and air conditioning guys, roofers, painters, flooring experts, guys that can do kitchen cabinets, countertops, everything from the router to the tuner. And we also have excellent relationships that we've developed not only with the big boxes, Home Depots, Lowe's, but there are actually many locally owned mom and pop family owned supply houses that we are able to get better prices on some items versus the big boxes. So if those savings are passed on to the investor clients that our project managers and contractors are renovating those properties for.

Keith Weinhold (00:32:41) - I want to talk more about how that's actually going the actual track record with that team. But before we do, if we talk bigger picture, let's look at some real numbers on an example property so that one can understand the overall process. On why BR is attractive to investors, and why they can put substantially less money into the deal than they can with what we would call a deal that's already completely done for you.

Keith Weinhold (00:33:08) - Turnkey.

Ken (00:33:09) - Yes, and I like to use a $100,000. It's a nice round number, right.

Keith Weinhold (00:33:16) - Inflation is basically it, but you can still find some.

Ken (00:33:19) - Yes. So an example said hypothetically, if we had a vetted property that was available to be purchased by an investor client, and that appraised value after repairs is estimated to be $100,000, we simply take 75% of that after repair value of $100,000, and we arrive at 75,000. So we work in reverse, in a sense. And if the contractor has estimated that the renovations, labor and material cost is going to be $25,000, 75,000, 75% of the 100,000, -$25,000 in renovation expenses that would leave $50,000. So the actual purchase price of the property would be $50,000 plus $25,000 in renovations. So the investors approximate all in is $75,000. That doesn't take into consideration title company fees, homeowners insurance. We encourage all of the investor clients to get a six months builder's risk policy from one of our sources that we use here locally, but of course, all of the investor clients are free to use or choose whomever they'd like to.

Ken (00:34:53) - So the property is purchased for 50,000. The renovations, which are high quality, are done for 25,000. So now the investor is all in for $75,000. Now we're at that second stage, and many times the renovations are completed before the property is rented. So though that second and third are kind of interchangeable, sometimes we the property's refinanced before it's rented, sometimes it's rented before it's refinance. So in a perfect world, the property has been rented to a client. So if the client's all in for $75,000 and we have what we created, our own 1% rule of thumb. So if the investor is all in for 75,000 and the numbers are still based on renting it for maybe 1% of the value. So we find that our rent versus price return is more than 1%. So in many cases we blow that 1% out of the water. We're talking about the.

Keith Weinhold (00:36:01) - Monthly rent being 1% or greater of the overall value or purchase. Price of the property.

Ken (00:36:06) - Yes, sir. That's true. That's correct. So after the property is rented for, let's say, $1,000 per month.

Ken (00:36:15) - Now it's time to get the property appraised. We do have lending partners that are very experienced with investment refinancing, whether it's conventional or whether it's DSC or refinancing. So now the appraiser comes out to the property after the investor client has made loan application. The investors appraiser comes out and voila, the property is totally renovated. It's rented out. The appraiser appraises the property for $100,000 plus or minus. It may appraise for 95, it may appraised for one T, and so on, so forth. So what happens with the investment refinancing the loan to value or LTV is usually 75%. It's not typical for the lender to refinance at 80% or 85% of the refinance. But with investment financing, refinancing nowadays is typically 75%, so the praise is for 100,000. The lender lends 75% of the 100,000, which is 75,000 on the refinance. So now the investor who has paid cash or possibly obtained a hard money loan or private financing in order to purchase the property, their coffers are replenished with it. 75,000 were either the hard money or the private.

Ken (00:37:42) - Long is paid off, and the investor now has a property that they've refinanced for 75,000. That's worth 100,000. But the key is now they've refinanced and they're at that final, or now they're able to repeat the process, rinse and repeat, re-up whatever you want that are to me. But it basically means you can reuse that $75,000 again to purchase your second property. Third property, you're able to scale quickly or pay off the hard money lender. And the hard money lender says, hey, I don't need this $75,000. Do you own it again to buy property number two? We're property number three. And it just goes on. And I'd like that word that to use key efficient.

Keith Weinhold (00:38:28) - Right. Because in at least one of the scenarios you described there, you would have no money left in the deal and 25% equity in the property.

Ken (00:38:37) - That is correct because even though the investor is all in for 75,000, that new roof, the new windows, the new luxury vinyl plank flooring, the new HVAC system and so on, so forth.

Ken (00:38:53) - Those improvements cause to happen is called force appreciation. It's worth more than $75,000 because of all of the improvements that have been made to $25,000 to new light fixtures, the pretty paint color, the new mailbox, the landscaping. So we found that many of the houses that we offer, they once were the ugly ducklings of the neighborhood. Now they're the beautiful swans of the neighborhood, and they're the homes and houses that people flock to that they prefer to living.

Keith Weinhold (00:39:30) - Yeah. So we're talking about some of those rehabs you might LVP the floor do a kitchen fluff up. By that I mean maybe you're saving and painting the cabinets, but replacing the countertops, new light fixtures, perhaps keeping bath tile in place, but glazing it and then bringing everything to code?

Ken (00:39:47) - Yes, sir. That's absolutely correct. And we do have a really nice design for our properties. We use really nice neutral colors when it comes to the tile, to the paint, the flooring, the vent hood color, so on, so forth.

Ken (00:40:02) - And you mentioned code enforcement, which we had excellent relationships with the Memphis Shelby County Code Enforcement officers, whether it comes to the electrical inspection, plumbing inspections, what have you, we have really good relationships with those government officials.

Keith Weinhold (00:40:20) - You might want exotic colors for your own home, but in a rental property you want to go neutral. It can take a while to rent a purple kitchen. Now talk to us about the the timeline to rehab and refinance a property. How many months or days does that take? And I'm looking for an not an optimistic scenario, but a realistic scenario and a real life track record of what you've done. Because I've known that our followers have bought a number of properties from you.

Ken (00:40:49) - Yes, our average turnaround time right now is approximately 90 days. The quickest turn that we've ever done from acquisition all the way to the final stage of refinancing was 32 days. But that particular property there was the scope of work of $15,000. It was really clean. Okay, already had a new roof, the AC system was already top knots, so there was just very few things that had to be delivered.

Ken (00:41:21) - But on average it's about 90 days from start to finish. And in this part of the country the weather's quite nice, especially during the summertime. It's very hot, but we are hit occasionally in the wintertime with snow and ice, and it paralyzed the city of Memphis because we're just not equipped the way the northeast is and some other parts of the country when it comes to snow and ice. So we push back our estimated time frame to complete a Berkey property during the winter months to about 120 days. But our average is 90 days, and we tend to we like to under-promise with the 90 days, but we may hit our target in 75 days or 80 days, and we just recently had some properties that we should be able to smash the all time record of 32 days, where we may be able to get from a buy to refinance done, and maybe 21 days.

Keith Weinhold (00:42:21) - Wow. That's the result of a well refined system. And I would submit to most any listener to try to do that across state lines or even in your own home market, as you're trying to manage contractors and codes and inspectors and appraisers and lenders and everything else, you're going to join us with our investment coach narration, co-hosting Gre's live virtual event.

Keith Weinhold (00:42:47) - Alex, a little bit more about what one can expect there. Attending the live virtual event to learn more about what.

Ken (00:42:54) - One can expect is that we will have, I guess, actual numbers on properties that are available, scopes of work, rental amounts that are based on our studies with the data that section eight provides, as well as the local market rents for cash paying tenants. So I do want to make it clear we do have cash paying tenants as well. But we do offer to the investor clients a choice. If we have a four bedroom property, for example, that section 8th May possibly pay 1700 a month for, and then all of a sudden we get a cash paying tenant that's willing to pay 1600. We present the information to the investor to say, hey, would you rather hold out for the $1,700 section eight tenant? Or would you rather go with the $1,600 cash flowing ticket that works at Blue Oval City, the electric vehicle plant that's on the outskirts of Memphis, about 30 miles outside of Memphis at the end.

Ken (00:44:01) - Who knows? Real soon. It was just announced yesterday that X, I and Elon Musk, they've chosen the city of Memphis to be the headquarters for the world's largest supercomputer. So we're looking forward to the benefits and economic boom that that's going to add to the Memphis market.

Keith Weinhold (00:44:23) - All right. So we've got some economic drivers behind this. Learn more about vetting tenants. Berkey and importantly, the value added here. By bringing that team, especially those contractors that are being managed for you with the Berkey join Jerry's live virtual event. It's where you can attend live in real time. You can ask questions if you wish that way, and you can do it all from your own home. Gree investment coach extraordinaire Naresh is going to co-host it along with my guest Ken. Here it is free to attend free learning and if you wish, expect a buying opportunity for property conducive to the BR. Often single family homes two, three and four bedroom properties in Investor Advantage Memphis, you'll learn which properties are right for this and which ones are not.

Keith Weinhold (00:45:10) - Attend tomorrow night it is Tuesday the 25th at 8:30 p.m. eastern, 530 Pacific. Attend tomorrow and sign up now at GR webinars.com. You can do it right now while it's top of mind for our live event that is at Gray webinars.com. Hey, it's been great having your insight. Thanks so much for coming on the show today.

Ken (00:45:33) - Thank you. You're welcome.

Keith Weinhold (00:45:40) - Between last year and this year, more followers have bought from this provider in this system than any other in the entire nation. Strong deals with less out of pocket for the investor. And maybe you don't prefer a section eight tenant. You can ask about that during the virtual event. And again, what was I saying here last week? This is the event that's a bigger deal than Olympic handball. Really though I would like for you to attend. This is entry level housing. So you're going to own a scarce asset that everyone wants. Expect to be in for a little of your own skin in the game, and you'll own a leveraged asset of tangible value that down the road.

Keith Weinhold (00:46:27) - Demographics say that people will desire to first rent from you and then later buy from you. If you think that it can benefit you and you like to learn, then I'd really like you to attend tomorrow night. I invite you Tuesday the 25th at 8:30 p.m. eastern, 530 Pacific. Register free now at Gray webinars.com. Until next week. I'm your host, Keith Wild. Don't quit your day dream.

Speaker 5 (00:46:58) - Nothing on this show should be considered specific, personal or professional advice. Please consult an appropriate tax, legal, real estate, financial or business professional for individualized advice. Opinions of guests are their own. Information is not guaranteed. All investment strategies have the potential for profit or loss. The host is operating on behalf of get Rich education LLC exclusively.

Keith Weinhold (00:47:26) - The preceding program was brought to you by your home for wealth building. Get rich education.com.

Direct download: GREepisode507_b.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 4:00am EST

Mon, 17 June 2024

The homeownership rate has fallen due to low affordability. This means that there are more renters.

There are still just one-half as many housing units as America needs. But it had been one-quarter.

New duplexes, triplexes, and fourplexes are vanishing. I describe six reasons why.

Two entire US counties now have a median home price of $2M+. Learn where they are.

It’s better to be an investor than a landlord or flipper.

GRE Investment Coach, Naresh, and I discuss how to use a lower down payment to achieve a potential 20% cash-on-cash return with the BRRRR Strategy. Join our live, virtual event for this at: GREmarketplace.com/webinar.

Resources mentioned:

For access to properties or free help with a

GRE Investment Coach, start here:

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RidgeLendingGroup.com or call 855-74-RIDGE

or e-mail: info@RidgeLendingGroup.com

Invest with Freedom Family Investments.

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505: Real Estate Problems - Affordability Issues and Foreclosures Today

Complete episode transcript:

Keith Weinhold (00:00:01) - Welcome to GRE. I'm your host, Keith Weinhold. Hold properties are vanishing, and sadly, they represent some really good property types that are hardly being built anymore. American housing is changing for good. Two entire U.S. counties now have median home values of $2 million or more. You'll learn where those are and learn about a specific real estate investing strategy, where investors are getting especially high yield returns in today's low affordability market. All today on get rich education.

Robert Syslo (00:00:37) - Since 2014, the powerful Get Rich education podcast has created more passive income for people than nearly any other show in the world. This show teaches you how to earn strong returns from passive real estate, investing in the best markets without losing your time being a flipper or landlord. Show host Keith Weinhold writes for both Forbes and Rich Dad Advisors, and delivers a new show every week. Since 2014, there's been millions of listeners downloads and 188 world nations. He has A-list show guests include top selling personal finance author Robert Kiyosaki. Get Rich education can be heard on every podcast platform.

Robert Syslo (00:01:09) - Plus it has its own dedicated Apple and Android listener. Phone apps build wealth on the go with the get Rich education podcast. Sign up now for the get Rich education podcast or visit get Rich education.com.

Corey Coates (00:01:23) - You're listening to the show that has created more financial freedom than nearly any show in the world. This is get rich education.

Keith Weinhold (00:01:39) - What we heard in 188 nations worldwide. I'm your host, Keith Weinhold, and you're listening to get Rich education. Last week, I covered a lot of bad news here as you and I uncovered some real estate problems. Of course, overall, when you're invested in real estate and obtain productive working income for yourself through tenants in their employment, you can almost always play another side of the coin and be profitable because, well, it really comes right back to the fact that real estate pays five ways simultaneously, for example, souring housing affordability. Well, that's bad for homeowners. That's bad news for people that are primarily want to be homeowners and not you. You're an investor. In fact, here's exactly what that means when you're the investor, the homeownership rate has fallen in in the past year.

Keith Weinhold (00:02:38) - It's gone from 66% down to 65.6% due to that low affordability. Okay. Well, that's just a 4/10 of a percent drop in the homeownership rate. And it is poised to fall further. Or what does that 4/10 really mean. Well, that's the proportion of Americans that don't own their homes. So then they have to rent. And this means that there are hundreds of thousands more American renters today than there were just a year ago. And that pushes up rental demand, rental occupancy and the price of rent itself. And that's what you get to capture off from a low affordability problem, which outsiders only think of as bad real estate news, because it is bad news through the lens of that one of your first time homebuyer. Now I want to tell you about the property types that are disappearing. Just vanishing today, and it's the degree to which it's happening that you probably aren't aware of. I'll also tell you why it's personally concerning to me, why this is all going on at all, and I don't even see any reason that it's going to turn around.

Keith Weinhold (00:03:52) - It's probably going to get worse. What's going on is basically that too many builders have thrown their duplex, triplex, and fourplex development plans out the car window like it's an Apple Corps on a summer road trip. They are vanishing. Yes, 2 to 4 unit properties vanishing. In fact, if you're a newsletter subscriber here, you got to see a jarring chart that shows this. And what you'll basically see is that in 2007, the number of 2 to 4 unit properties built just fell off a cliff. It flatlined, and it still hasn't gotten up. The amount constructed now is still just one half to one third of what it had been in pre global financial crisis years. Really they're only closer to a third. All right. So what we're talking about here is only about one third as many duplex triplex and fourplex starts today as there were 20 years ago. And this is sourced by the National Association of Homebuilders. And some call this entire phenomenon M triple M multi families missing middle. And whatever you call this disappearing act.

Keith Weinhold (00:05:10) - Before I get to the reasons for why this is happening, I've got to tell you that this disappearance, it hurts me a little. It's sort of heartfelt because as you know, I began this way with a fourplex that was my first ever property of any kind. You know, the story where I lived in one unit and rented out the other three. It was just an amazing way to start with a bang. Well, now, when we compare this paltry construction, this dearth of. construction today, when we compare that to both smaller property types and larger property types, that being single family homes and five plus unit apartment buildings, will construction of all three of these types fell hard around 2008. But here's the thing. Single family homes and five plus apartment buildings. They got back up around 2010 and they started resuming more building. But duplexes and fourplex, they never did. They never had that happen. The number coming out of the market that just kept flatlining. Those new starts. All right.

Keith Weinhold (00:06:16) - So why exactly is this going on with these vanishing 2 or 3 and four unit property construction types? Why this trend? Well, first, it's NIMBYism, not in my backyard ism primarily of those single family homeowners, because once people are comfy in owning their single family home. Well, then they don't want higher density duplexes in fourplex built in their area. They fear that it can lower their property values. It'll almost certainly increase the traffic around that area. And the second reason is that there simply just been less building overall of most all housing types. And I have discussed this elsewhere, so I won't get into it again. Yes, it is that erstwhile housing supply crash. A third reason for these vanishing 2 to 4 unit properties is the need for zoning reform and the adoption of what's called light touch density. Light touch density. That means a zoning strategy for more dense housing. And what are we up to now for? The fourth reason is that builders, they find more scale efficiencies when they build larger apartments.

Keith Weinhold (00:07:25) - Fifth is limits in international building codes, in international residential codes. And the sixth reason is that this trend began around 2008. These more recent work from home lifestyle starting in 2020. That means that residents can live in single family homes, and they tend to be further from the urban core, rather than 2 to 4 unit properties. And this lifestyle trend right here, that can mean that this disappearing trend for this property type continues. And there you go. They are the six reasons for why. If you were 2 to 4 unit properties are being built today, drastically fewer. And I lament this fact because see duplex the four plex neighborhoods, they can have good walkability where you don't always need a car to get everywhere. And yet at the same time, they still have ample green space. Now, conversely, some fourplex neighborhoods, you know, they can get to look and really junky. Well, they all have different owners. And then there are dumpsters all over the place, like my first fourplex was, and like my second fourplex was as well.

Keith Weinhold (00:08:33) - I really hope that builders become more attracted to the 2 to 4 unit space. See, with giant large apartment complexes, say 300 units. Well, the builder has to wait until the construction of all of those 300 units are done until they can start filling it with rent paying tenants. So therefore builders have to wait longer to start getting that rent income. But instead, construction of this missing middle housing that can be broken into phases. And that way units can be open when they're completed. And that provides early rent revenue to the builder and 2 to 4 unit properties. I mean, they really are an investor sweet spot, but due to builder and lifestyle trends like I'm describing, fewer are being built new. But please remember there were many missing middle properties built decades ago and they can still make good investment properties into the future. In fact, the first two fourplex that I bought were both built in the mid 80s, so there's still plenty that are already out there. The takeaway here for you is that you're going to be seeing fewer new ones, and that means that duplexes to fourplex is now take up a smaller proportion of America's housing stock, and that portion is positioned to become smaller and smaller going forward.

Keith Weinhold (00:09:56) - So it's not that death of these properties. We even have home builders at Gray Marketplace right now with new build 2 to 4 plex. So it isn't their death, but they are dying, waning in number. Now, Jerry recently got Ahold of some jaw dropping info here. I my gosh, now remember a few years ago, maybe even ten or more years ago when you probably heard something like certain small towns in California, Silicon Valley. They now had median priced homes that hit the million dollar mark. And you know, when you first heard that, you might have thought, oh, wow, it's not just neighborhoods, but entire towns in aggregate have hit the million dollar mark in some high priced American places. Well, then get ready for this. As housing affordability makes headlines in California in its wealthiest cities, continue to fight building more housing. We have two Bay area counties, not towns, but entire counties that have hit a milestone. The median price for sold homes there has climbed to $2 million or more.

Keith Weinhold (00:11:15) - We're not just talking 1 million anymore, and we're not just talking about one upper crust town, but two entire California counties now have median home prices of $2 million or more. And notice these are not asking prices. No speculation here. These are the values, the amounts that they have actually sold for. And this is according to a recent California Association of Realtors report. Median homes are now $2 million plus in which two Bay area counties, you might wonder? Well, first, Santa Clara County, which includes San Jose, they notched an even $2 million back in April. And yes, this is more than San Francisco County's $1.8 million. And the second county, it spirals even higher than that. The second California county, with median home prices of 2 million plus is San Mateo County. It's basically a county that lies between San Francisco and San Jose. And that's where the median home price sold for in San Mateo County, California, $2.17 million. Not just one upper crust town, but an entire county.

Keith Weinhold (00:12:38) - Not just $1 million, not even $2 million anymore, but $2.17 million. And this is not for a fancy, lavish home. This is just the median priced home in the middle and San Mateo County that is home to the nation's most expensive zip code, by the way. Atherton, California, where the median home price tops the charts nationally at $7.1 million. That's that is according to Compass Real Estate. And if that's not enough, homes are still flying off the shelves there. They're days on market is now at the lowest since 2022. And though all this sounds pretty astonishing right now, you know what? If you are listening to this episode ten years from now, well into the 2030s, you might think these were the good old days here. How quaint. Because over the next ten years, we all expect more inflation, and we've still got more housing shortage years between now and say, ten years into the future. And of course, here at URI, we don't tend to focus on the high priced markets, which tend to be on the coasts, things like this.

Keith Weinhold (00:13:55) - Really, it's just a harbinger of what's to come to more parts of the nation later on. What we do here is we help you win in real estate without being a landlord and without being a flipper. As a savvy investor that tends to buy either new or fixed up properties and might have a manager manage them for you, hands off is the place to be. Hands off is being an investor, and you get the best tax advantages this way to when your hands off and you know something. Some people that get into real estate investing, they think that they have to be a flipper, or that they have to be a landlord in order to make it profitable. Now, there's nothing wrong with those two disciplines. So much flipping or landlord. I was a landlord for a little while on my own properties. Most of my investment career. I use a property manager and I never flipped. It's just that these things flipping and landlord, they're not any sort of prerequisite to you being a successful investor. You can shortcut all of that with turnkey real estate investing or like with a different strategy that we're going to talk about later today.

Keith Weinhold (00:15:04) - What most people really want is the financial freedom that real estate investing brings. But in order to get there, it's often not the route that you think it is. It's typically not flipping or landlords. And, you know, really it's this way with a lot of things. For example, say that you want to own in ice cream business. Well, most people think that they have to start their own ice cream business from scratch. And like you need to find a space and you need to buy all the equipment and develop systems and go through the excruciating process of hiring all of your staff. No, a lot of times you can shortcut all of that by not starting your own ice cream business, but instead studying, vetting, and buying an existing ice cream business without having to start your own from scratch. Be strategic, study a little, shortcut the process and get in where it's profitable. You want the benefit of owning real estate without having to use a nail gun yourself, or being a manager where you're 25 tenants can text you.

Keith Weinhold (00:16:17) - What kind of life are you building for yourself? Then you want the benefit of owning an ice cream business. The way to get to the end goal. The path there is often different than you think. And here's another example that I can relate to, but I think that you will too. Do you have a favorite real estate? Influencer out there and they think about starting a podcast. Well, I personally know three real estate podcasters out there that have all quit. They produce some episodes and all three quit doing their podcast. And these are just among people I know and just real estate thought leaders. Just that space and all. Recent hosting your own podcast platform is a ton of work from. You need to have a huge bank of your own original content, to having the ability to book big name guests and then making sure they're prepared to. Making sure you have the right marketing team so that a podcast actually reaches the right people. It is work, work, work, and seemingly no one in this world knows that better than me.

Keith Weinhold (00:17:21) - With 500 plus episodes reliably released every single week since 2014, and we don't replay old shows either, there is nothing passive about this. There are so many shows today that if your favorite real estate influencer starts one, they're going to be competing with a lot that are already out there. I mean, anymore, even celebrities that start podcasts, they usually don't get any substantial reach or traction. All these people that start and quit their podcasts, they were too slow to realize that actually they didn't want to host a podcast. What they really wanted is for their voice to be heard. Well, the way to shortcut that, like with turnkey real estate investing or with buying an existing ice cream business, is that that influencer should have developed a strategy for being a guest on other shows that are already popular and established, probably by hiring an experienced and connected booking agent. That way, you've outsourced all of that marketing and research activity to another show that already did that for you. So the point is, be clear on getting what you want.

Keith Weinhold (00:18:34) - What is the goal that you want first, it's probably a large real estate portfolio built for leverage and income, and then work your way back to try to find the most efficient route to get there. And there are often shorter paths to get there than what you first thought. Now, when we talk about where are the best real estate deals today, you have to look harder than you did, say, 8 to 10 years ago. Coming up shortly, you'll have the pleasure of hearing an in-house chat with I in one of Gre's own investment coaches. We're going to talk about a strategy that specific and proven but underutilized in order to recapture those higher cash on cash returns like you could have gotten back in, say, 2015 and 2016. And for a time, I had been talking about how Newbuild properties and their builder interest rate buy downs, that they're really the place to be. And that's still true, but not to the extent that it was just a year ago, because today some builders, they're not paying down your interest rate for you as much as they did last year.

Keith Weinhold (00:19:39) - They're asking you to pay more toward it. Now. A few minutes ago, I told you about America's vanishing duplexes to fourplex. And if you're one of our newsletter readers, you got to see a jarring chart or two that demonstrates exactly what I was talking about there. And also in our newsletter, I show you great maps, real estate maps that beautifully demonstrate housing market trends and where the opportunities are for you. Also, in a recent letter, I showed you exactly where I'm getting 8% interest paid to me and what's basically a savings account. If you don't already subscribe, it is free. Our email letter is called the Don't Quit Your Day Dream letter. It's concise, valuable info that's just good, clean content that I put directly into your hands. It is easier to use than a website. Today's websites have paywalls and cookies, disclaimers or pop up ads. This is just the good stuff directly from me, straight to you. And you can get the letter now at get Rich education com slash letter that's get rich education com slash letter.

Keith Weinhold (00:20:50) - In a world of AI and bots, I actually write every word of the don't quit your daydream letter myself, just like I have from day one. And another easy way to start the free letter is text gray to 66866. Just do it right now while it's on your mind. Text gray to 6686616. I'm Keith Reinhold. You're listening to get Rich education. Your bank is getting rich off of you. The national average bank account pays less than 1% on your savings. If your money isn't making 4%, you're losing your hard earned cash to inflation. Let the liquidity fund help you put your money to work with minimum risk. Your cash generates up to an 8% return with compound interest year in and year out. Instead of earning less than 1% sitting in your bank account, the minimum investment is just 25 K. You keep getting paid until you decide you want your money back there. Decade plus track record proves they've always paid their investors 100% in full and on time. And I would know, because I'm an investor, to earn 8%.

Keith Weinhold (00:22:02) - Hundreds of others are text family 266866. Learn more about Freedom Family Investments Liquidity Fund on your journey to financial freedom through passive income. Text family to 66866. Role under the specific expert with income property, you need Ridge lending group and MLS for 2056 injury history from beginners to veterans. They provided our listeners with more mortgages than anyone. It's where I get my own loans for single family rentals up to four Plex's. Start your prequalification and chat with President Charlie Ridge. Personally, they'll even customize a plan tailored to you for growing your portfolio. Start at Ridge Lending group.com Ridge lending group.com. This is peak prosperity.

Robert Syslo (00:23:00) - Chris Martinson, listen to get Rich education with Keith Arnold and don't quit your daydream.

Keith Weinhold (00:23:15) - Hey, would like to welcome in Gray's extraordinary investment coach. He's booksmart because he's got his MBA. He street smart because he's an active direct real estate investor, just like I am. Before joining gray back in 2021, he worked for financial publishing companies and in the banking sector, too and elsewhere. And today is an investment coach here.

Keith Weinhold (00:23:36) - He helps beginning real estate investors understand the process of acquiring rental property, and he helps veteran investors optimize their strategies to save on taxes and more. Hey, it's terrific to welcome back Naresh Vizard. Thanks a lot Keith. It's been a while, but I'm looking forward to talking real estate before we're done. Today, we're going to tell you about an upcoming live GRE virtual event, where you learn how to get 20 to 25% of immediate built in equity through real estate. And before we do the race, let's talk about what's really going on. Besides giving GRE devotees free education and guidance like you do, you also help them find the best deals on income properties nationwide and for a time, brand new build to rent properties they look good in. Many still do with a lot of rate buy downs into the fives and even the fours on those new build properties. But this year, I learned that builders aren't contributing to buying down the race for the investor like they had last year, and that the onus seems to be more on the investor to buy the rate down with some of these builders.

Keith Weinhold (00:24:44) - So tell us more about what's happening in America's build to rent sector. Well, Keith, build to rent. For those who don't know, it's been around here at GRA. Bill to rent asset classes, build to rent real estate. But it's the concept of builders building real estate properties with the intention of selling them to investors so they can rent it out. So right now I live in a house that was built, and I bought it because the builder intended for somebody to buy it and live in it. That's not built to rent. Build to rent is the idea of.

Naresh Vissa (00:25:16) - Specifically selling it to investors like our listeners, like our loyal followers who live out of state and who want to rent the properties out to tenants. Now, Build to Rent was very hot and it's still popular. I don't want to call it hot, but it's still popular for those who want new construction properties. However, the rehabs are making a furious comeback because there was about a four year period from 2019 to 23 or so where you just couldn't find good cash flowing rehabs.

Naresh Vissa (00:25:50) - Right. And when I say rehabs, I mean these older properties that were built 50 years ago, maybe as long as 120 years ago there we have some properties in our inventory that were built in the late 1800s, and they've just kept being rehabbed and rehabbed and renovated. Buildings are making a furious comeback because they're cash flowing better. Previously, they were just cash flowing marginally better than new construction built to rent properties. Now, especially with a strategy called ver, which we'll talk about some more, you can have the opportunity to get cash on cash returns back to what you remember in 2016, 2015 where we're talking 15, 16% cash on cash returns. I mean, some of our BR clients or listeners who ended up buying BRS, they're doing 2021 all the way up to 30% cash on cash returns. So BR simply means buy, rehab, rent, refinance, repeat the cycle. So that's B followed by for Rs b r r r r buy, rehab, rent, refinance. Repeat the process again.

Naresh Vissa (00:27:10) - And it's during that refinance where investors are getting a good chunk of their down payment back. Because what happens in that refinance is after you rehab it and you read it, you rent it out at the target rent, which almost all of these are renting out at very aggressive high target rents. When you refinance it, the property appraises at a value that's much, much greater post rehab than when you initially bought it. And that's where you get essentially your money back. You can choose to keep it in with the mortgage company so you have more equity in the property, or you can take the cash back and use it to buy more BR properties. It's become a very popular. Form of real estate investing. People think when they hear this. Well, it sounds like flipping, right. This is not flipping. Flipping is kind of like day trading. You're looking to make a quick buck, whereas in this case you're not selling the property. You're keeping the property with the intention of renting it out and collecting the cash flow from your tenant.

Naresh Vissa (00:28:19) - So that's in a nutshell, what BRR is. And we are having a live event on Tuesday, June 25th at 8:30 p.m. Eastern Time. That's Tuesday, June 25th at 8:30 p.m. eastern. Time to talk about and go over this BR process. The bird key process or listeners are familiar with turnkey. Well we have BR key which is similar except it's using the BR method. And Keith, you probably know this and you've talked about it a little bit on your podcast. BR has become the most popular strategy that our investors are utilizing this year, 2024.

Keith Weinhold (00:29:01) - Yeah. Now back to the build to render the new build properties is attractive as they can be because they attract a certain quality of tannin and they're not going to have any maintenance or repair issues, most likely for quite a while. The thing with those is, oh, you might pay 300 K or more for a new build. Single family home in the builder rent style with 20% down payment, 5% for closing costs, you're out of pocket. 75 K.

Keith Weinhold (00:29:30) - One reason that this has become the most popular strategy for gray followers we're talking about here. The BR strategy is that you could come out of pocket with a lot less to begin with.

Naresh Vissa (00:29:42) - That's number one. Number one is we have some GRE followers who went into this Berkey and they put no money down. They got lucky. They initially bought the property, and the property appraised so much that they got their money back and their down payment was actually zero. They didn't make money on it, but what they allocated, what they thought that they would allocate 25% down, they ended up using that money since they got it back to buy a second property and then a third property and then a fourth party. We have one guy who bought six properties, all birds, because he didn't get I don't want to say, look, we're not making promises that you're going to put 0% down. That's not the promises that we're making. The worst case scenario is that you put 25% down and that's your standard real estate investment.

Naresh Vissa (00:30:27) - But there is a chance that you could put 15% down or 10% down if the rehab turns out really well. And if you get a good appraiser, there's a chance it can happen. But the goal here, again, is not to make a quick buck or to house hack. We're not taking shortcuts here. The goal here is simply to buy a property renovated or rehab it and drive up the rent price, drive up the value of the property, put a good tenant in there and call it a day. Collect those cash flows. Now I do want to say a few things about that process. So like I said, the first thing that you do is you buy. So first you buy, then you rehab. You do not have to do we call it Berkey because everything is done for you. So when people hear this, they're like, oh, this sounds like I live in Florida. I don't want to go to Memphis. And by the way, this specific market is in Memphis, Tennessee that we're focusing on.

Naresh Vissa (00:31:26) - We have burrs in Baltimore, Maryland and Philadelphia, Pennsylvania and Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. But we've identified Memphis as not just the hottest, but it just makes the most sense numbers wise. And so I want to go back to the point of, hey, you don't have to physically go or even go on Google and find handymen or rehab ers to do this for you, our Berkey provider. The best part is they do it all for you. It's completely taken care of. You literally just sign some papers. Once you decide that you like a property and the specs of the property, you sign some papers. They take care of it. The rehab takes about 90 days. Then from rehab to closing, it takes another 40 days or so. And then from closing to someone signing a lease that takes another 30 days to find somebody, stick them in there and takes another 30 days after that for the tenant to move in. So overall, this process can actually take just for one property. You can take six months.

Keith Weinhold (00:32:26) - Now. Naresh has touched on it somewhat. One conventional problem with the Burr strategy by rehab rent, refinance, repeat is that first are the rehab because it involves vetting and managing contractors, which is a real nightmare for many. So instead, we're talking about tapping into a system with a proven team of contractors and lenders and project managers to make it easy. It's known as Berkey, and it's in profitable Memphis.

Naresh Vissa (00:32:54) - Profitable Memphis. And I'll say this about Memphis, we're going to talk. Way more about this on the webinar. Highly recommend people go to GRI webinars. Com gri webinars.com. You can sign up for the webinar there. It's actually live. So this is not like something that you just can show up to whenever you want. It's a live event on Tuesday, June 25th at 8:30 p.m. Eastern Time. That's Tuesday, June 25th at 8:30 p.m. Eastern Time. Great webinars.com is how you can register. And like you said, we could have focused on Baltimore, Maryland or Pittsburgh. Memphis has really and I myself by the way, own five properties and four in Memphis proper.

Naresh Vissa (00:33:42) - And one is in the Memphis area and Mississippi, a suburb of of Memphis. And this I don't want to call it a town, because Memphis used to be one of the most popular towns in the south back in the day. But this city has really come up as a result of pandemic, of population growth, of even inflation. We've seen rents go up, we've seen the population go up. Memphis is not what you think of from eight years ago. Seven years ago when I first bought my properties. I'll admit, when I bought my first property seven years ago in Memphis, I had a lot of problems with tenants. I had a lot of problems with the city. I didn't like what I was reading about the police department, just all sorts of things. Not the police department, just crime in general. And Memphis has really turned itself around. Not completely turned itself around, but it's gotten better. And we're seeing it just on the investment side because that's where we're seeing appreciation growth. My personal properties, they're up since 2020, since January 2020, I was when I closed all my last Memphis property.

Naresh Vissa (00:34:49) - They're all up at least 50% in value. So it's a market that's still appreciating. But the most important thing because we are cash flow investors, not necessarily appreciation investors. It's great to get the appreciation, but the rents keep going up. And I actually today I've talked to a Berkey client, great loyal Jerry listener and follower who ended up buying three properties, and she's on her fourth one, or about to do a fourth one with this Memphis market provider. And when she told me her rents, I was blown away at how much these properties were renting for before the rehab. So it's not just the appreciation again, that goes up after the rehab, how much they were renting for before the rehab. We're talking less than $800 a month and post rehab. Her rents went up by nearly 50%, about 45% on average. House rehab is like three bedroom, one and a half bathroom. Homes initially she bought them. This is how a lot of the properties are. They only had two bedrooms and they converted one of the spaces.

Naresh Vissa (00:36:05) - The rehab were converted at no extra. You know, it's all inclusive of the rehab charges. They were able to find space in a lot of these properties that were two bedrooms to create a third bedroom and turn them into three bedroom properties instead of two bedroom properties, which also improves the value of the home. And you can get another body in there and increase the rent. So, Jerry, listeners have been really, really happy with this burpee process because at the end of the day, you really do get more bang for your buck. Yes, new construction overall. It's just safer. We have tons of great new construction providers, especially in Florida, whom we recommend, but this is an alternative for those people who don't have $100,000 sitting in the bank ready to invest in a new construction, single family, or a new construction duplex. The Berkey, I mean, really all you need is about 20, $25,000 to do it. And like I said, if you get lucky, you could get a decent portion of that back after the rehab.

Keith Weinhold (00:37:08) - Well, you bring up so many good points there in the race. For one thing, with real estate, you can intentionally improve the value. That's something that you cannot do if you own a stock or if you own cryptocurrency, or if you own gold, you can help control what your investment is worth. And a lot of that happens here in the rehab process. Well, the race would love to tell you more, including walking you through an example with numbers, but that's the best place for him to do it. That is on the live event next week because it is co-hosted by narration. You can join the live virtual event from the comfort of your own home. You can ask questions and have them answered in real time. It is all free and we'll also be sharing special off market Berkey inventory. In Memphis for two, three and four bedroom properties, so go ahead and attend on June 25th. Which again is next Tuesday. Be sure to register now at GR webinars.com. Just been great to walk through the Berkey.

Keith Weinhold (00:38:12) - Thanks so much for coming back on the show.

Naresh Vissa (00:38:14) - Thank you. It's been a pleasure.

Keith Weinhold (00:38:21) - Oh good info from Gree investment coach Naresh as always. Next week's live event. That could be a bigger deal than the Paris Olympics this summer and this year's presidential election combined. Oh yes. Well, at least it expects to be more profitable for you than those other events. It will also be more entertaining when you join as an attendee live next week. Certainly more entertaining and informative than Olympic handball and Olympic race walking, no doubt about that. I don't think I've offended any race walking fans because there are only perhaps five in the world. In any case, BR is a process by which, after you buy months later, you can expect to refinance at a higher valuation since the property has been rehabbed from your initial purchase, and then you get a big chunk of your own down payment back, meaning you have less invested in the deal. And that's why you get a higher cash on cash return. Because cash and cash return all that is, is your annual cash flow divided by your initial investment or your starting equity position.

Keith Weinhold (00:39:37) - The last R in BR is repeat. You can repeat sooner because you did get some of your invested cash back. And that's part of what makes the strategy so effective. Now is part of your refi. You might get a post appraisal rehab that's so high you essentially get all of your down payment money returned to you, at which point it would be an infinite return because you don't have anything invested in the deal. But you should not count on having all of it returned, just a lot of it or most of it. Next week's live event is where the BR real estate investing strategy gets introduced to a wider swath of America one last time. Attend live next Tuesday. The 25th. I really encourage you to check it out. Be sure to sign up for the virtual GRE live event now! It's pretty quick and easy to do at GR webinars.com. Until next week, I'm your host, Keith Weintraub. Don't quit your day dream.

Speaker 5 (00:40:41) - Nothing on this show should be considered specific, personal or professional advice.

Speaker 5 (00:40:45) - Please consult an appropriate tax, legal, real estate, financial or business professional for individualized advice. Opinions of guests are their own. Information is not guaranteed. All investment strategies have the potential for profit or loss. The host is operating on behalf of yet Rich education LLC exclusively.

Robert Syslo (00:41:09) - The preceding program was brought.

Keith Weinhold (00:41:10) - To you by your home for wealth building. Get Rich Education.com.

Direct download: GREepisode506_.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 4:00am EST

Mon, 10 June 2024

Big capital gains tax bills are hitting more home sellers. Exemptions exist for up to $250K single, $500K married.

Bad housing affordability means a low home ownership rate, hence, more renters.

The homeownership rate has dropped from 66.0% to 65.6% in the last year.

I have a hole in the roof of a rental single-family home, with about $10K in damage. Learn how I handle it.

Two of the first three income properties that I bought performed poorly.

VP of Market Economics at Auction.com, Daren Blomquist joins me. We learn why foreclosure activity is 10% to 20% below pre-pandemic levels.

Learn about judicial and non-judicial foreclosure states.

From homeowners surveyed, the top concern about falling into delinquency are rising insurance and property taxes.

Auction bidders are confident about the real estate market. They’re willing to pay more, which is 60% of ARV nationally.

You can bid on distressed properties with your phone via Auction.com.

Opportunity Zones are generally working.

Resources mentioned:

Nation’s Largest Online RE Auction Marketplace:

Auction.com

For access to properties or free help with a

GRE Investment Coach, start here:

Get mortgage loans for investment property:

RidgeLendingGroup.com or call 855-74-RIDGE

or e-mail: info@RidgeLendingGroup.com

Invest with Freedom Family Investments.

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504: The Father of Reaganomics, David Stockman Joins Us: Ominous $100 Trillion Debt is Coming

Complete episode transcript:

Speaker Weinhold** ((00:00:00)) - - Welcome to GRE! I'm your host, Keith Weinhold, talking about a lot of housing market problems today. Capital gains taxes hitting more home sellers. Home affordability is still bad. The American homeownership rate is falling. I've got roof damage on one of my own properties. Then an update on American mortgage delinquencies and foreclosures. It's mostly bad real estate news today on Get Rich Education.

Speaker Syslo** ((00:00:29)) - - Since 2014, the powerful Get Rich education podcast has created more passive income for people than nearly any other show in the world. This show teaches you how to earn strong returns from passive real estate, investing in the best markets without losing your time being a flipper or landlord. Show host Keith Reinhold writes for both Forbes and Rich Dad Advisors, and delivers a new show every week. Since 2014, there's been millions of listeners downloads and 188 world nations. He has A-list show guests include top selling personal finance author Robert Kiyosaki. Get Rich education can be heard on every podcast platform. Plus it has its own dedicated Apple and Android listener. Phone apps build wealth on the go with the get Rich education podcast.

Speaker Syslo** ((00:01:06)) - - Sign up now for the Get Rich education podcast or visit GetRichEducation.com.

Speaker Coates** ((00:01:14)) - - You're listening to the show that has created more financial freedom than nearly any show in the world. This is get rich education.

Speaker Weinhold** ((00:01:30)) - - We're gonna go from Bavaria, Germany, to Batavia, New York, and across 188 nations worldwide. I'm Keith Weinhold, and you're listening to Get Rich education. There is a large online source of foreclosure and bank owned properties that you won't find on the MLS. In fact, they are the largest in the nation, and their VP of Market Economics will be here with us later today. Home price appreciation. That has been wonderful for the last several years. But one negative consequence is the fact that more home sellers now are getting hit with big capital gains tax bills. Now we'll discuss income property shortly, but when it comes to primary residences, you probably know that if you are single, you won't pay any capital gains tax on the first 250 K profit of your sale. That 250 K exemption. That is only half of what married couples enjoy.

Speaker Weinhold** ((00:02:29)) - - They don't have to pay tax on the first 500 K of profit. Yes, a $500,000 exemption on capital gains for married couples. So basically, single people in high priced markets like you often find on the coasts, they get hit the hardest. Married couples in lower priced markets more toward the heartland and in the South. Those married couples, they're more likely to get away without paying any tax on the profit from their home sale. All right, well, just what proportion of homes are we talking about here? Well, last year, 8% of sales had capital gains of over 500 K. All right, well that potentially makes them exposed to the tax hit. Compare that to a couple decades ago. That share was just over 1%. So it's gone from 1% to 8%. These are exorbitant capital gains tax events. And you know what this does. People trying to avoid that it keeps even more homes off the market. Now it's not as pronounced as the well-documented interest rate lock in effect okay. Call this the capital gains tax lock.

Speaker Weinhold** ((00:03:46)) - - In effect people avoid the tax by not selling. And it makes some older people age in place. That's part of what's going on here. Because if the homeowner keeps it until they die, then the heirs, they might be able to sell it tax free due to the tax laws and capital gains taxes. Like, what rate do you actually pay that can be as high as around 20% on you for selling your primary residence if the gain exceeds those thresholds? And yeah, those thresholds, they haven't moved with inflation in quite a long time. Now, understand that right now you are living in an era where many Americans, they can't afford to live in the home that they live in right now if they tried to repurchase it at today's prices. So again, it's not the mortgage rate lag in effect here. It's the purchase price paid lock in effect. Now look, yes, overall I am a real estate market optimist. You are too, when you understand how real estate pays you five ways. But as far as anyone saying something like, oh, there is never been a better time to buy, that doesn't make any sense.

Speaker Weinhold** ((00:05:02)) - - Now. At the same time, I don't see any evidence that waiting is going to do you any favors, but there have obviously been some better times to buy. In fact, do you know the best year in modern history that I can think of for buying real estate? Any idea it was the year 2013? Yeah, 2013. That's when prices were low because they still hadn't bounced much off of the GFC lows and mortgage rates. They actually were in the absurdly low threes back in 2013. Now starting in 2021 you know I have been on record on this show. I've been on record on television and on our own YouTube channel here and in Forbes and elsewhere. Since then, I've said that home prices, they're not poised to fall, they're going to stay stable or they're going to keep going up. I was perhaps one of the earlier people to point that 3 or 4 years ago that the low housing supply and the government safety nets that won't let people lose their homes, those things keep the markets buoyant.

Speaker Weinhold** ((00:06:16)) - - Now, today, I see more signs that prolonged bad affordability will slow down. Home price growth in that part is bad for investors, of course. Prolonged. Bad affordability. That means something good for income centric investors at the same time, sort of like David Stockman and I touched on last week here. Yes. Souring affordability. What that means is a falling homeownership rate that would make sense in the homeownership rate. That means that just what it sounds like, that is the proportion of American homes that are occupied by their owner in the past year. Yeah, the homeownership rate has fallen, but not too much yet because there are some lag effects and other factors to account for. Like, imagine if there are new zero money down loan programs that are made available. You can see how that would make homes more affordable, even if rates and prices and wages stayed the same. So there are X factors out there and lag effects out there. In the past year, the homeownership rate has fallen from 66% down to 65.6%.

Speaker Weinhold** ((00:07:33)) - - Not too much of a slide, just 4/10 of 1%. That is a Fred stat sourced through the Census Bureau. All right. So what's that really mean if you're looking for income. Well, what that means is that there are now hundreds of thousands of additional renters today than there were just one year ago. And the number of renters, those that aren't homeowners, that looks to increase in both absolute and relative terms. There's a lot of people expect the homeownership rate to continue to drop from here. Now, no investor conditions are absolutely ideal everywhere you look. In fact, of the first three investment properties that I personally bought in my life, only one of those three went really well. It was that first ever fourplex I bought because it appreciated from 295 K to 425 K in just three and a half years, and it provided some cash flow and even a place for me to live. But the second property I bought, which was also a fourplex, it hardly cash flow because I bought it at 90% loan to value, and I also bought it in 2007.

Speaker Weinhold** ((00:08:46)) - - Not great timing, so its value dropped. I was a pretty new real estate investor then, and when its value dropped, it didn't return to the 530 K value that I bought it for for about six years. And then I got wiser and I started buying across state lines, since that's where the best deals often are. Well, this was then my third investment property, a brick single family home that cost 153 K in the Dallas-Fort worth area. And the main reason I bought it is because it was cheap, which was a mistake. It was also in a growing area, but I couldn't keep it occupied, so I soon sold it for about the same price that I bought it for. All right. But even in those far less than ideal beginnings for me, two of my first three properties, they weren't disasters, but they weren't a great experience either. Yet I still got some leverage, a little cash flow. I got tenant made principal pay down all the while, tax benefits all the while, and that inflation profiting benefit.

Speaker Weinhold** ((00:09:52)) - - And I did then find myself better off overall. Despite that the appreciation and the cash flow weren't all that great. If you blend those first three properties together and today, perhaps a lot like you or what you want to do. I own properties in multiple markets, and I remotely made as the property managers in those markets. And you know, just yesterday I got an email from one of my property managers about roof damage to one of my properties. It's a rental single family home. It's going to be about $10,000 worth of repair work. Some bad news and the way I'm hailing it is a way that you might think of handling a real estate problem. I sure don't just send off a $10,000 check right away and chalk it up as a loss, and ask myself how many months it's going to take me to make that up. The first thing that you can do in this situation is check to see if you have a home warranty that covers it in full or in part. Whether you bought your property new or renovated, a warranty might apply.

Speaker Weinhold** ((00:10:58)) - - It actually does not in my case here. Well, if the warranty doesn't cover your issue, of course, check with your insurance provider and see what your deductible is there. Consider that when insurance premiums have risen sharply in a lot of markets, you need to get something back for that premium that you're paying in a lot of cases. All right. And if those things don't work, then don't just take the first quote that your property manager gives you that they got from the first contractor, which is. Ten K in my case. For a substantial work item, ask your property manager to obtain at least three quotes for you. That's reasonable. And then look at the most competitive of those three quotes. So to review here three ways to avoid paying. For example a full 10-K. In my case it's your warranty, it's your insurance. And if you feel like you must come out of pocket, then get three quotes in order to reduce your cost. And here's the thing you don't do these things yourself.

Speaker Weinhold** ((00:12:03)) - - What you do is you ask your manager to do these things and make it easy for you. Your manager should check with your insurance policy and they should check on your warranty. And then you can back it up and take a look at it. If you don't like the answer, they should obtain the roofing contractor quotes for you to. You are paying your manager for this stuff, maybe 8 or 10% in a management fee, and that should not be for nothing. Have them do this stuff that's their job and ask them to do it. Because if you don't just watch, they'd be happy to have you do it for them. Don't. You don't have to. So we're talking about mitigating your out-of-pocket cost in your time expended when you have a real estate issue, like a hole in a roof of one of my single family rentals. Now sometimes you're going to get caught in some snafu. But again, our strategy here is that you're usually not even holding any one rental property for more than 7 to 10 years, because by that time, it's accumulated sufficient equity so that you can make a tax deferred exchange up to another property, keep leveraging that equity, because the rate of return from equity is always zero.

Speaker Weinhold** ((00:13:16)) - - Now, that process, that 7 or 10 years, that might be on the slower end. Now though, since the property that you consider relinquishing is going to have a lower mortgage rate than your replacement property, it will. And one other thing to keep in mind here it's about providing America with that clean, safe, affordable, functional housing. What that means is that while roof quotes are being obtained here if needed, and it takes a few works until those roof repairs can begin, what you can do is have a cheap temporary repair done until the permanent roof fix starts. That's pretty common with roofing repairs, and that way not only is any interim damage avoided, but the tenant is not being negatively impacted here either. No slumlords around here. As we're discussing real estate problems today, we're about to delve into what happens when homeowners in real estate investors, when they can't make the mortgage payments on their property, and is that proportion of people going up or is that going down in this low affordability market? We'll also get some takeaways by looking at the bidder activity on foreclosure properties.

Speaker Weinhold** ((00:14:33)) - - That can tell us quite a bit about the market and about buyer expectations for the future of the market. And I'll also tell you how you too, if you're interested, you can find opportunities and get a deep discount on a foreclosed upon property. That's all. Next with a great guest, I'm Keith Reinhold. You're listening to get Rich education. Your bank is getting rich off of you. The national average bank account pays less than 1% on your savings. If your money isn't making 4%, you're losing your hard earned cash to inflation. Let the liquidity fund help you put your money to work with minimum risk. Your cash generates up to an 8% return with compound interest year in and year out. Instead of earning less than 1% sitting in your bank account, the minimum investment is just $25. You keep getting paid until you decide you want your money back there. Decade plus track record proves they've always paid their investors 100% in full and on time. And I would know, because I'm an investor, to earn 8%.

Speaker Weinhold** ((00:15:41)) - - Hundreds of others are. Text. Family 266866. Learn more about Freedom Family Investments Liquidity Fund on your journey to financial freedom through passive income. Text family to 66866. Role under the specific expert with income property you need Ridge Lending Group and MLS 42056 in grey history, from beginners to veterans. They provided our listeners with more mortgages than anyone. It's where I get my own loans for single family rentals up to four Plex's. Start your pre-qualification and chat with President Charlie Ridge personally. They'll even customize a plan tailored to you for growing your portfolio. Start at Ridge Lending group.com Ridge lending group.com. This is Rich dad advisor Tom Wheelwright. Listen to get Rich education with Keith Reinhold and don't quit your daydream. This week's guest is the VP of Market Economics at auction. Com they are the largest online source of foreclosure and bank owned properties that you won't find on the MLS. You can bid on properties from anywhere with your mobile device. We'll learn more about that later. First, we're covering a general real estate market update today, and then we're mostly going to discuss what's happening in the foreclosure market, including just what a foreclosure market even is.

Speaker Weinhold** ((00:17:25)) - - Hey, it's been over a year since we've had you here. So a big gray welcome back to Darren Lundquist. Thank you so much. It's great to be back and.

Speaker Blomquist** ((00:17:34)) - - Glad to see you, Keith.

Speaker Weinhold** ((00:17:35)) - - For listeners in the audio only Blomquist is spelled with just one oh, despite being pronounced. Blomquist and Daren, as we talk about the state of these markets today, it also helps to mix in lessons for the follower and listener that's watching or consuming this. In ten years. And before we discuss foreclosures. Now, Darren, when I look at the residential real estate market today, there are a few ways that it appears rather normalized actually. For example, all price appreciation rates are normal rent growth levels. They're pretty close to historic norms. Interest rates are even near historic norms, which is a surprise to laypersons. But that's three huge measures that are actually normal, and no one else anywhere talks about that. But there are some aberrations in today's market, the most chronic and saddening of which is the lack of housing supply.

Speaker Weinhold** ((00:18:28)) - - So with that backdrop, what are your thoughts on today's overall American housing market?

Speaker Blomquist** ((00:18:34)) - - It's really interesting. We have these normal metrics that we look at when we look at how home price appreciation. Now home sales I would say are abnormally low. Right. But home price appreciation is doing well. Some of the other metrics that we look at. But it's coming off of this abnormal what I would say an abnormal period over the last three years or so, mostly during the pandemic when the housing market went a little bit crazy and you saw home prices rise abnormally fast. I would argue too fast for such a short period of time. And so you'd almost expect after a period like that to see a correction in home prices. And we saw a slight correction in late 2022, early 23. Right. But now home prices are, as you mentioned, kind of back to normal actually maybe a little bit on the high side of normal, 5 to 7% home price appreciation that we're seeing annually. And so there is this sense that things look normal.

Speaker Wheelwright** ((00:19:32)) - - But below the surface there are, I believe I would argue and you may not agree with this, some underlying problems that I think could come back to bite us if, you know, depending on how things go over the next few years. But certainly the underlying fundamental biggest storyline, that's not necessarily maybe as accessible to a lot of people is this housing supply that you mentioned, Keith. And over the last the decade that ended in 2020, we saw, I would guess, based on my analysis, about 4 to 5 million housing units that were not built, that in a sense should have been built. But we were short 4 to 5 million housing units relative to the number of households that were being formed during that same time period. And so that is set us up for this market that we're in now in the 2020s, where we're seeing, despite the fact that home prices are going up and are out of whack with fundamental price to income ratios. In other words, affordability is a problem. Despite that fact, home prices continue to go up because you have this underlying lack of supply and so you have enough demand to fuel rising home prices, given the lack of supply, if that makes sense.

Speaker Weinhold** ((00:20:48)) - - Yes. You mentioned the paltry volume of sales, which is really one consequence of this constrained supply. And there are so many ways to measure it. You threw some numbers out there just using Fred's active listing count. They have one and a half to 2 million homes normally available. Inventory bottomed out near a jaw dropping, just fantastically paltry 350,000 units in 2022. And then the latest figure is about 730 K. So really doubling off the bottom, but yet still far below what is needed there in in 2021 and 2022, I started informing our audience that the housing crash of this generation, it's already occurred. It was a supply crash, which hedges against a price crash even amidst a tripling of interest rates. I guess there. And from your vantage point, when will this low housing supply abate?

Speaker Wheelwright** ((00:21:46)) - - But I think on the multifamily side, you're seeing signs that we've, in a sense, caught up with housing supply. You're seeing the multifamily sectors start in terms of the builders start to pull back. I think because of that.

Speaker Wheelwright** ((00:21:58)) - - And one piece of evidence of that is the slowdown in rent appreciation. But then on the Single-Family side, we're still seeing pretty robust increases in housing starts and builders starting housing units. And I was just looking at the latest numbers for April up 18% year over year. And we're at over a million housing starts in April on an annualized basis. You know, it's hard to predict what household formation will be doing over the next decade, but I believe that million number is enough to supply the new households that are being formed and are projected to be formed over the next few years. And so we're kind of at a place where at least we're treading water in terms of housing supply. And I do think there are some demographic trends that could by the year 2030, which may seem like a long ways off still, but by that time we would see this kind of reverse a little bit. And the demographic trends I'm talking about are slower population growth, the birth rates. There's a big article in the Wall Street Journal.

Speaker Wheelwright** ((00:22:58)) - - If you write, birth rates are surprisingly not really coming back. They dropped during the pandemic have not really come back. And in many areas, including the US or below replacement level in terms of replacing the population at 2.1. Yes. So not to get too deep into the demographics, I'm not a demographer, but I think that combined with these increases in housing starts that we're seeing, we will see that supply in the next five years. Maybe when I'm on next, I'm with you to see that it is a slow moving train. I think we're headed in a good direction in terms of that, that housing supply. And those are already, I would argue, some early signs at 2024 at least. It's still a low supply environment, but it's at least somewhat better, incrementally better than 2023 was in terms of inventory. And we're seeing some more inventory. Come on. One tip I would just say that's I think a long term thing to look for, no matter what environment you're in, is if you look at the inventory, inventory is a great and a barometer of market health.

Speaker Wheelwright** ((00:24:00)) - - And if you look at inventory numbers by market, which we do, you do see some markets all of a sudden inventory is starting to spike. And that to me is a signal that those markets could be softening in terms of prices and even in terms of sales. So you see some markets in Florida popping up like that. But whether or not we're talking about now or anytime, it's a great metric to look at. For anybody investing in real estate, especially at a market level, is that inventory of homes. You can look at month supply of inventory for sale. Six months supply is a great milestone. If there's six months supply, that's a balanced market. If it's below six months supply, it's a seller's market. And if it's above six months supply, it's a buyer's market. So just a general kind of rule of thumb to look for there.

Speaker Weinhold** ((00:24:46)) - - Sure. We've seen months of supply three months or less in an awful lot of places. However, you alluded to coming potential problems for the housing market earlier.

Speaker Weinhold** ((00:24:55)) - - Can you tell us more about that? Have you already done that with talking about a potential softening with some inventory coming on faster in some markets?

Speaker Wheelwright** ((00:25:04)) - - I think you're a thesis about this. The housing crash has already happened and it was a supply crash is very interesting. When I look at price to income ratios over time, you know, home prices versus incomes, we've diverged from that long term mean of that price to income ratio right. In the last couple of years. We saw that during the the bubble of 2004 five six. But it's even more dramatic in the last couple of years where we saw at the peak of this, the actual home prices. We. Nationwide, we're about 30% above what we would expect the price to be based on incomes and that historic price to income ratio. And so I do expect a reversion to the mean at some point. Now, whether that could occur as a pretty sharp correction, although I can't point to a specific trigger that would cause that correction necessarily may could occur more of a stagnation over time, where home prices kind of flatten out and increase less than the median long term average.

Speaker Wheelwright** ((00:26:07)) - - I do believe that we will see a reversion to that mean eventually, especially as we see more supply coming onto the market. I think it's actually healthy for the housing market, but it could be experienced by many people as weakness in the housing market, because you could see home prices decline a little bit, especially in certain markets.

Speaker Weinhold** ((00:26:25)) - - From your vantage point. Darren, you are an expert there in helping people find deals because you really keep a pulse on what's happening in the foreclosure market. Maybe some of our audience doesn't completely understand what the foreclosure market means. Now, Darren, I think of delinquency is that condition means that mortgage borrowers have been making some late payments. Tell us about how delinquency differs from foreclosure. And that will help if you go ahead and define just what the foreclosure market is.

Speaker Wheelwright** ((00:26:57)) - - Starting with the foreclosure market. I mean, when you can call it the distressed market or the foreclosure market. And that's really where auctions. Com operates. And is this foreclosure market, it's loans that the borrower cannot continue to make payments for a variety of reasons.

Speaker Wheelwright** ((00:27:12)) - - When you have a home that's financed and the borrower cannot continue to make payments, the recourse for the lender is foreclosure to take back that property by taking back that property and then selling it, recouping or trying to recoup as much of the losses on that property that they can in terms of the loan that was given on that property. Okay.

Speaker Weinhold** ((00:27:34)) - - So let's talk about delinquencies here. We're looking at certain levels of severity being 30 days late on your payments, being 60 days late and being 90 days late. And interestingly, we see a big spike in FHA loan types that have had more delinquencies than conventional loan types.

Speaker Blomquist** ((00:27:50)) - - That's right. Yeah. So delinquency is kind of the top of the funnel if you think of the distressed market or for leisure market as a funnel, the top of that funnel is someone can't make their payment one month. They miss their payment, mortgage payment one month. That's what this 30 or 30 day delinquency. And when you look at the chart that we're looking at, you do see those 30 day delinquencies rising over the especially on FHA loans, which are, I would argue, the most kind of risky loans in our current marketplace.

Speaker Blomquist** ((00:28:19)) - - Yeah, the last ten years, over the last decade. And we see those even from 2021, rising steadily up back to really 2019 highs on the 30 day delinquencies, you also see a slight gradual increase in conventional loans, which are loans backed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac as well as VA loans. But those are the 30 day delinquencies. They're are not back to pre-pandemic levels even on that front. So that's the 30 day. Usually if someone misses a monthly payment, it's not super serious at that point. What really gets more into our marketplace is when we see a 90 day delinquency, or what's known as a seriously delinquent loan alone, that is past due by 90 plus days. And we have that chart here. What stands out to me on this chart is you actually see those 90 day delinquencies continuing for the most part to trend lower, even though the 30 day delinquencies are going up, 90 days are coming down, and there's a lot of reasons for that. But at the end of the day, that means people maybe are getting into trouble, but they're able to get out of trouble before they lose the home to foreclosure in many instances.

Speaker Weinhold** ((00:29:29)) - - All right. So in summary, 30 and 60 day delinquencies have risen over the past two years. But over the past two years, serious delinquencies, 90 day delinquencies therefore, are lower over the past two years.

Speaker Blomquist** ((00:29:43)) - - That's right. And then if we look at foreclosure starts, which is kind of the next step. So you missed three months worth of payments. That's when the bank starts to think about starting the official foreclosure process. And if you look at foreclosure starts, we are seeing those rise as well. And part of the reason that you see these rising, even though seriously delinquent loans are falling, is because there was a bit of a backlog from the pandemic still. Yeah, loans that were delinquent when the pandemic started that were delayed from going to foreclosure, that are now coming back. So we see this sharp drop off in 2020 when there was a foreclosure moratorium. Those numbers have reverted back, have bounced back. But there's we're still seeing about 60 to 70,000 foreclosure starts, a quarter nationwide just to put some numbers on this.

Speaker Blomquist** ((00:30:31)) - - But back in the first quarter of 2020, before the foreclosure moratoriums, we were at 81,000. So we're still at about 80% of the pre-pandemic levels. But foreclosure starts have come back. We're just getting back to what I would consider kind of normal levels of foreclosure, and especially if you look at in the context of what we saw during in 2009, 2010, we were seeing over 500,000 foreclosure starts a quarter back then. Now we're seeing 68,000. So we're paling in comparison to those numbers.

Speaker Weinhold** ((00:31:04)) - - As you, the investor, is thinking this through, we're talking about how many opportunities there will be for you here, basically to scoop up a distressed deal, a fixed and flip property. If you're looking to fix and flip one just in the general context, that's what we're talking about here.

Speaker Blomquist** ((00:31:21)) - - Opportunities really foreclosure starts are for. Opportunities. If we look at where the opportunities are emerging in terms of those foreclosure starts, we do see a lot of increases in looking at March of 2024. Year over year, a lot of increases in Florida, and foreclosure starts and also Texas in California.

Speaker Blomquist** ((00:31:42)) - - So it's interesting. I mean, these are markets that are doing pretty well, pretty healthy. But we are seeing some of those foreclosure starts come back in pretty big percentage wise in those areas. If we look at auction com data, specifically the state level, in the interest of time. But just to look through the lens of looking for opportunities. Auction com resides a step after the foreclosure start. Then eventually it goes to a foreclosure auction where the property either sells to an investor or it goes back to the bank is what's known as an REO. And where we're seeing on our platform the biggest kind of return to normal levels of foreclosure auction volume, where there's that property actually is sold, is mostly in the Rust Belt, Upper Midwest. That's where we're seeing volumes return to normal. And a place like Florida, we're only seeing foreclosure volumes are over 70% below normal, and Texas were 55% below normal. And when I say normal, I'm saying I'm comparing that to pre-pandemic levels. And then in California, we're at about 45% below those pre-pandemic levels.

Speaker Blomquist** ((00:32:54)) - - So some of the big volume states, we're still waiting for the foreclosure volume to return. But if you look like at states like Indiana, Iowa, Minnesota, places like that, Oklahoma, we are seeing that foreclosure auction volumes have returned to those pre-pandemic levels. So there are more opportunities in those areas, at least relative to their population and their their size of in terms of housing units.

Speaker Weinhold** ((00:33:20)) - - So in general, in a lot of these upper Midwestern states, in northern Great Plains states, we see a greater foreclosure volume than we did pre-pandemic, because those levels are at over 100%, 100 being the pre-pandemic level. There is one aberration on your map, for one thing, Darren, and that is in Connecticut, where we have 306% of the foreclosure volume that we did pre-pandemic. That's over three x what's going on in Connecticut?

Speaker Wheelwright** ((00:33:50)) - - I'm glad you pointed that out. I mean, that is part of the the issue with Connecticut is you do have relatively low foreclosure volumes there. So the 306% is coming off even pre-pandemic, some pretty low volumes of foreclosure.

Speaker Wheelwright** ((00:34:03)) - - We are seeing and I can't point to exactly what's happening there in terms of the economy, any other extra weakness in the economy or in the housing market there? But we are seeing definitely that's the top state in terms of where foreclosure volume is back way above, in fact, pre-pandemic levels. That was one of the areas, at least parts of Connecticut where the work from home trend maybe got a little bit out of control, and people were buying homes and willing to pay very high prices for homes that were who worked in New York City. And now we're thinking, well, I can work from Connecticut. In the country. There was probably more of a pandemic housing boom in Connecticut than some other areas of the country, and that may be part of the story that's going on there.

Speaker Weinhold** ((00:34:54)) - - We're talking about the most densely populated part of the United States here, the tri state area, which is New York, Connecticut and New Jersey. And what's unusual is that one of those three states, new Jersey, is the antithesis of what's happening in Connecticut.

Speaker Weinhold** ((00:35:09)) - - Connecticut has about three x the foreclosure volume than they did before the pandemic, and new Jersey is just 25%. They only have one quarter the foreclosure volume that they did before the pandemic. Are there any other tri state dynamics going on there with foreclosures there?

Speaker Wheelwright** ((00:35:25)) - - That's a great observation. And one thing that becomes very important with foreclosures is the foreclosure process is governed by state law. It's not a federal national law that governs how the foreclosures work. And so you do see a lot of variation in the states based on how that foreclosure process works. And then also even how the the legislatures in those states have stepped in in some cases. And that's the case in new Jersey and created new laws even in the last couple of years to, for lack of a better word, stymie the foreclosure process and may put extra barriers in getting to foreclosure. And so, number one, new Jersey is what's called a judicial foreclosure state, where the foreclosure process is inherently longer than many states, including Connecticut. And then on top of that, the new Jersey legislature has enacted at least one law that took effect in January that even creates more barriers to foreclosure.

Speaker Wheelwright** ((00:36:22)) - - And we probably don't have time to get into the details of that law. But that's really, I think, what's it's less about that new Jersey is a much more healthy housing market than Connecticut. As to what you see there is the effects of the state governed foreclosure process with those numbers.

Speaker Weinhold** ((00:36:40)) - - So just some great context for the listener and viewer here. The state jurisdiction in the judicial process has an awful lot to do with foreclosure volume. That's not necessarily indicative of the condition of its housing market.

Speaker Wheelwright** ((00:36:55)) - - That's right. And it does vary quite a bit. When we look at going forward at risk. We actually asked, so our clients are the banks, the mortgage servicers, the lenders who are foreclosing on these properties. And we ask them what they think is the highest risk of increasing foreclosures in the future. And the the top of their list was rising insurance and property taxes.

Speaker Weinhold** ((00:37:22)) - - That's super interesting.

Speaker Wheelwright** ((00:37:23)) - - Yeah, and that's been a hot topic recently. I would put that at the top of my list of risks.

Speaker Wheelwright** ((00:37:29)) - - Going back to your question about why could the housing market experience weakness in the somewhat near future? I think this is the top of my list of as a catalyst that could potentially trigger weakness in the housing market, specifically home prices. Because of these variable costs of homeownership. You know, your mortgage is a fixed cost. You know what it's going to be every month, but your insurance and property taxes are variable costs. And there are in some states, those have skyrocketed. For some homeowners. This insurers are pulling out of states.

Speaker Weinhold** ((00:38:02)) - - This is all such a great finding. Again, Darren's firm asked the survey question how much would you assign each of the following in terms of risk for higher delinquencies between now and the end of this year? And the number one answer is rising insurance and property taxes to Darren's point. That's because these are variable costs that everyone is subjected to. And we need to be mindful that more than 4 in 10 American homeowners are free and clear of their mortgage, so they don't have any payment.

Speaker Weinhold** ((00:38:27)) - - So on a percentage basis, when you look at homeowners expenses, when they have rising insurance and property tax problems, you can see how this can increase foreclosures.

Speaker Wheelwright** ((00:38:38)) - - That's right. That's a great point. A couple other risks that ranked fairly high with our clients. We're rising consumer debt delinquencies so that we do see things like credit card debt and auto loan debt, specifically those two delinquencies on those types of more or loans, not mortgages, are rising quite quickly over the last few quarters. And so that's an area of risk that we're seeing. And then they put rising unemployment is third. But you know right. We're not seeing unemployment rise right now. And unemployment is very low. They put that a little bit lower on the list. Those two things to look out for are those rising insurance and property taxes. If we continue to see that be a problem, that could be a trigger that causes some fallout in the housing market, as well as if we continue to see those rising delinquencies on credit card and auto loan debt that could ripple out as well to the housing market.

Speaker Weinhold** ((00:39:35)) - - It's really interesting. Higher property taxes are often a result of a homeowner's property having gone up in value. But if you own a paid off home and you're just going to continue to live there for the rest of your life, that rising property value that really doesn't help you so much, it actually might hurt you in a way, because you will have a commensurate increase in your property. Taxes, making it harder for you to live.

Speaker Wheelwright** ((00:39:57)) - - Yeah, that's right. It's a double edged sword there with the rising values. And usually it's, you know, property taxes is not an unbearable cost for most people. But when you're on the margins and you're just barely able to make your mortgage payment each month, and if you're in that situation, a fairly small rise in property taxes can make a big difference in whether you're able to continue to make those payments.

Speaker Weinhold** ((00:40:21)) - - Yes. And then the rising insurance premiums, they've gone to X to three X on some homeowners in just a few years. It won't go up that much on a property taxes.

Speaker Wheelwright** ((00:40:30)) - - The insurance is there's been more of the problem recently, but property taxes are kind of layered on top of that. Moving on. I just wanted to land, I think really on getting back to that question of opportunity for investors out there and auction com buyers are typically fix and flip or you know, fix and rent investors. And so what they're doing is they're looking to buy these properties. And it usually takes maybe six months, 90 days to six months to renovate these properties and turn them around and sell them. And so one of the things we look at very carefully is, are the bidding behavior on our platform as an indicator of what's coming in the retail market, because our buyers are they're pretty good usually at anticipating what's going to be happening in their market over the next 3 to 6 months. Our buyers did pull back in their bidding behavior, they got more conservative and were willing to pay less. Back in 2022, when mortgage rates spiked. But it appears now that our buyers have gotten comfortable with this kind of higher for longer concept of interest rates.

Speaker Wheelwright** ((00:41:36)) - - Yeah, and our bidding behavior on our platform is mostly trending higher, meaning that our buyers are pretty confident that the housing market, despite, you know, I might have sounded a little doom and gloom, but our buyers are pretty confident that in their local market, they will continue to be able to buy these distressed homes at a discount. The metric we look at is what they're paying at auction, relative to the after repair value of the home, the estimated after repair value, and as of March of this year, that was at 59.8%. So they're buying at 60% of after repair value at 40. You could turn that around and call that a 40% discount. That number is, believe it or not, been trending up over the last few months. So they're willing to pay more, which indicates confidence in the housing market going forward. Historically, that's our bidders have been a good harbinger or indicator of what's to come in the retail market when they're more confident the retail market typically does well and vice versa.

Speaker Wheelwright** ((00:42:39)) - - You know, if we look at that by market, it's really interesting to see where our bidders are most confident about home prices going up in different markets. And we see a lot of confidence actually, the places where we see it's probably coincidental, but some of the places where we see higher foreclosure volume, as we talked about earlier, some of the upper Midwest Rust Belt areas are where we're seeing our buyers willing to pay more than they did a year ago relative to after repair value. So that's where they have a lot of confidence, actually, even out in California and most parts of Florida, they're still pretty confident. And Texas, there are some areas where our buyers are pulling back and and are paying less relative to after repair value. And there's kind of a cluster of markets in on the Gulf Coast, right? You know, in Mississippi, Alabama. And I don't know if that relates to insurance costs. I haven't made that connection solidly. That's an area where there has been rising insurance costs.

Speaker Wheelwright** ((00:43:39)) - - It varies quite a bit. There are some other markets mixed in across the country. Even though most of Florida, our buyers are pretty confident there is one area where they're they've become cautious, which is Cape Coral, Florida. They've pulled back in terms of what they're willing to bid.

Speaker Weinhold** ((00:43:55)) - - Buyers for foreclosure properties still look overall quite confident in Florida. But yeah, like you touched on Darren, it's the lack of confidence to pay more for foreclosure properties in and around southern Louisiana. I know there's been some population loss there. And yes, like you touched on, they are more sensitive to insurance premium rises in Louisiana too.

Speaker Wheelwright** ((00:44:17)) - - That's right. So the takeaway is there's still the beauty of buying at that auction and distressed properties you are buying at a discount below after repair value. There's still a lot of risk involved because you may not know all that that's needed to renovate these properties, but you do have that. Rather than just counting on the housing market. Home price appreciation to increase to drive your profits, you have this component of added value.

Speaker Wheelwright** ((00:44:45)) - - So you're buying the property at a discount. And even at the housing, home prices don't go up in the next six months. By adding value to that property, you can still turn a profit because you're selling it for more than you bought it for. We have two types of auction on auction. Com there's the foreclosure auction, which we've talked a lot about, which comes at the end of the foreclosure process. And that's typically on the local courthouse steps. Although auction com in many counties allows you to bid remotely on your phone, we're we're pretty excited about that technology that we've introduced in the last couple of years. And then the second type of auction is if it doesn't sell at the courthouse steps foreclosure auction, it goes back to the bank as an REO. And we do the Ro auctions, which are mostly all online, and you can bid from anywhere. And it's pretty consistent between those two types of auctions. On average, at least over time, buyers are typically paying about 60% of after repair value, so about a 40% discount between after repair value.

Speaker Wheelwright** ((00:45:46)) - - Now, a lot of these homes need are in need of a lot of repair. But you have that type of discount available. And even though foreclosure volume has not come back to pre-pandemic levels, we're still seeing a consistent flow of that happening. There are certainly many markets, especially if you're willing to go off the beaten path a little bit in terms of markets where you can find inventory and also good discounts on these properties, especially if you're going to markets where maybe other investors aren't as aware of or aren't as interested in.

Speaker Weinhold** ((00:46:18)) - - Therein. I wonder about local flavor. For those that bid through your platform on these distressed, foreclosed properties. Here we have a lot of investors that buy properties pretty passively where the property is already fixed up for you, maybe already held under management. And a lot of those investors, they go ahead and buy across state lines, because the best teals tend to be in the Midwest and Southeast and a few other pockets in places. So there are an awful lot of out of state investors.

Speaker Weinhold** ((00:46:49)) - - On the passive side, what do you see for a breakdown of local investors in state investors and out-of-state investors through your platform for these distressed properties? I imagine it might be somewhat more localized than what I just described.

Speaker Wheelwright** ((00:47:01)) - - We do have some investors who are buying out of state, but actually the majority are buying in their backyard. Again, because these properties require their high touch, they require a lot of renovation. And so it's good to be local. It's definitely possible, especially with the REO properties where you can buy online. There is some more flexibility there if you have a crew, if you have boots on the ground in the market where you're buying, where you can do that, actually, the average distance between our buyers and the properties they buy is about 20 miles. I should say that's a median distance. So they're very local. There's definitely some exceptions to that you can buy across the country. But it is harder with these properties. These folks are very local. They know the markets they're operating in, and they know they have the resources in those markets to do the renovations.

Speaker Wheelwright** ((00:47:53)) - - Our buyers are probably a great resource for your students, Keith, to be able to tap into these types of local investors who have a supply of homes that they're creating, and sometimes they're selling back to owner occupants, you know, they're putting those properties on the market as renovated properties, and those might be good turnkey rental opportunities as well.

Speaker Weinhold** ((00:48:17)) - - You know, that makes a lot of sense. And how your platform can help people not just find properties, but maybe network and find some like minded people that have tread where you're trying to go. Well, Darren, is there any last thing that you would like to tell us along with your online platform? Is there also perhaps an auction mobile app?

Speaker Wheelwright** ((00:48:37)) - - Absolutely. We have an auction. Com app, and that's a great way to just either on on the website or on the app. You can go on and start searching. There's no subscription fee or anything like that to start looking and seeing where the opportunities are in the markets that you're interested in. You go to auction.com/in the news.

Speaker Wheelwright** ((00:48:57)) - - I actually end up talking to quite a few buyers of our buyers, and we've done some videos where we've gone and visited some of these buyers on location to see what they're doing, how they are operating on a human level. It's very interesting because these buyers are actually doing a lot of good in their communities. Many times by willing to take these down and out properties and down and out neighborhoods and renovate them, but also just on the level of understanding how this all works. That's a great resource. So that's auction.com/in the news and look for those videos featuring some of our buyers. I think that would be a great resource.

Speaker Weinhold** ((00:49:33)) - - Well this has been great information to get an update on what's happening in the foreclosure market and where some of the local areas of opportunity might be as well, especially compared to pre-pandemic conditions. It's been valuable and it's been a pleasure having you here on the show. Thank you so much, Keith. Yeah. Good knowledge for foreclosure expert Darren Bloomquist today. It's when borrowers miss three months of mortgage payments.

Speaker Weinhold** ((00:50:05)) - - That's that mark, where banks often begin foreclosure proceedings. Another thing that you learn is compared to pre-pandemic levels, national foreclosure levels are 10 to 20% lower today than they were then. And see with those that have a late mortgage payment or two, oftentimes that's not going all the way to foreclosure. They're getting caught up on their payments before it goes to foreclosure. And what's really going on here with that dynamic is that, see, today's homeowners, they are more motivated to stay caught up on their payments if they fall behind. And that's because they usually have a substantial positive equity position to protect. And the other factor is that if you lose your home today and you're locked in at a low pre 2022 mortgage rate, it's often going to cost you more per month to go out and rent somewhere else. So it's cheaper on a monthly basis to live in the home that you own. One piece that you might have learned is that high foreclosure activity in a state or city that is not necessarily indicative of that area's economic fortunes.

Speaker Weinhold** ((00:51:10)) - - Instead, it might be tied to its judicial foreclosure process. Nationally, buyers are paying about 60% of after repair value for a foreclosure property. I just talked to Darren some more outside of today's interview, he discussed that foreclosure properties are often in opportunity zones, and if you don't know what they are, are designated distressed areas. That's where there are benefits given to you. If you invest specifically in that zone, you might remember that Opportunity Zones were part of Trump's 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act. They have those zones in all 50 states. And Darren said that overall Opportunity zones are working next week here on the show. Properties are vanishing. Yeah, it is a real tweak to your investor mindset. Disappearing properties. Tune in next week as I cover. Properties are vanishing here on the show. If you haven't yet on your favorite pod catching app, be sure to subscribe or follow the show on your favorite app. Until next week, I'm your host, Keith Windle. Don't quit your daydream.

Speaker Blomquist** ((00:52:23)) - - Nothing on this show should be considered specific, personal or professional advice.

Speaker Voice** ((00:52:27)) - - Please consult an appropriate tax, legal, real estate, financial or business professional for individualized advice. Opinions of guests are their own. Information is not guaranteed. All investment strategies have the potential for profit or loss. The host is operating on behalf of yet Rich education LLC exclusively.

Speaker Weinhold** ((00:52:51)) - - The preceding program was brought to you by your home for wealth building. Get rich education.com.

Direct download: GREepisode505_b.mp3
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Mon, 3 June 2024

We’re joined by President Ronald Reagan’s Budget Director, David Stockman. He tells us what real estate investors and everyday people need to know.

Stockman served as Reagan’s Director of Office, Management and Budget from 1981 to 1985.

He tells us to expect higher inflation and interest rates for longer, maybe even the rest of the decade. Don’t expect rate cuts for a long time.

The US is moving toward an unsustainable debt situation, with $100T in public debt expected within twenty-five years. We have embedded deficits.

Learn why the recession has been postponed. David also reveals what will inevitably pull the trigger to potentially start the recession. Hint: Household budgets.

Pandemic stimulus programs gave citizens $3T. Half of it has now been spent.

He was also one of the founding partners of Blackstone.

David Stockman tells a story about President Reagan’s personal touch with him.

You can subscribe to David Stockman’s Contra Corner for free here.

Resources mentioned:

David Stockman’s Contra Corner

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GRE Investment Coach, start here:

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503: How Decades of Inflation Destroyed Our Dollar, Today’s Rent Trends

Complete episode transcript:

Keith Weinhold (00:00:01) - Welcome to our Ivory Coast, Keith Whitehill. There are some dire warning signs for the future of our economy. We're joined by none other than the father of Reaganomics. To break it down with us. Today is late. President Ronald Reagan's budget director joins us. When is this perpetually postponed recession coming? Why? Inflation and high interest rates could carry on for the rest of the decade. And what it all means to your finances and real estate today on get Rich education.

Robert Syslo (00:00:34) - Since 2014, the powerful get Rich education podcast has created more passive income for people than nearly any other show in the world. This show teaches you how to earn strong returns from past real estate, investing in the best markets without losing your time being a flipper or landlord. Show host Keith Wine, who writes for both Forbes and Rich Dad Advisors and delivers a new show every week. Since 2014, there's been millions of listeners downloads and 188 world nations. He has A-list show guests include top selling personal finance author Robert Kiyosaki. Get Rich education can be heard on every podcast platform, plus it has its own dedicated Apple and Android listener.

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Keith Weinhold (00:01:35) - We're going to drive from Glen Burnie, Maryland, to Glen County, California and across 188 nations worldwide. I'm Keith Reinhold, and you're listening to get Rich education. We're going bigger picture this week before we talk to President Reagan's money guy in the white House. Understand that today's guest was also one of the founding partners of Blackstone, and they are in the real estate business. You're going to get a lot of deep, uniquely qualified insights today. And I'll tell you what's going on around here. Lately, things have been feeling awfully presidential between last week's program and now this week's program. Hey. Stars and stripes forever. Semper fi. Rah! Now, as the greatest detonation in the history of the world, how in the heck are we, as the United States, going to keep financing our debt now, you can think of a treasury, also known as a bond, as an IOU, as we take on debt to fund our government spending programs.

Keith Weinhold (00:02:42) - Really, what we do is issue then these IOUs to the rest of the world and then down the road. We need to pay back these IOU holders, treasuries, holders, whatever we've borrowed with interest on top of that. That's a really simple way to describe how it works. Think of a Treasury as an IOU. Well, we have $9 trillion in treasuries that need to be rolled over at higher interest rates just this year alone. Okay. Well, how does the market look for that sort of thing? Well, a lot like before you decide to sell a piece of real estate, you would want to know how that buyer's market looks. How is the buyer's market for us selling more treasuries, which is basically us issuing more IOUs? How is that world interest level in our treasuries? Well, this is a time when the world is selling treasuries. We're trying to get rid of them. Well, why would they buy more when we keep printing like crazy, debasing the dollars that they will eventually get their treasuries repaid in down the road? Case in point, China is down to just over 700 billion of treasuries that they're holding.

Keith Weinhold (00:04:01) - Well, they were 3 trillion not too long ago, more than four times that Russia and Iran sold all of their treasuries. Other countries are shedding them too, like Japan. It gets even worse than that because the number one holder of our own debt is our own fed. And then it gets even worse than that. Yet, because even our own fed is rolling treasuries off of their balance sheet. So who is going to finance this often irresponsible US spending the 10 trillion or $11 trillion every single year for the next ten years that we have obligations toward already, and it looks like all those are going to be at higher interest rates, too. Now, I am not telling you how to think about us as the United States, for example, sending foreign aid to multiple nations. That's up to you to decide whether it's Ukraine or the Middle East or Taiwan that gets political. And that is beyond the scope of GR. We are an investing show. What I'm saying is that backdrop that I just gave you, that's something that you need to take into consideration, is you weigh those foreign aid decision types.

Keith Weinhold (00:05:20) - Speaking of getting worse, do we at least have competent decision makers today? Now, as we'll talk to the father of Reaganomics here shortly, someone that served in an earlier era. Here's a clip from this era that really went viral lately, but it's apropos to play it here. This is Jared Bernstein today. He chairs President Joe Biden's Council of Economic Advisers. How much confidence does this instill? And remember, this guy chairs the economic advisers to today's president.

Jared Bernstein (00:05:56) - The US government can't go bankrupt because we can print our own money.

Voice (00:06:00) - Like you said, they print the dollar. So why? Why does the government even borrow?

Jared Bernstein (00:06:04) - Well, the, so the I mean, again, some of this stuff gets some of the language that the, some of the language and concepts are just confusing. I mean, the government definitely prints money and it definitely lends that money, which is why the government definitely prints money. And then it lends that money by, by selling bonds. Is that what they do? They they, the.

Jared Bernstein (00:06:34) - Yeah. They, they they sell bonds. Yeah. They sell bonds. Right. Because they sell bonds and people buy the bonds and lend them the money. Yeah. So a lot of times, a lot of times at least to my year with MMT, the, the language and the concepts can be kind of unnecessarily confusing. But there is no question that the government prints money and then it uses that money to so, yeah, I guess I'm just I don't, I can't really, I don't, I don't get it. I don't know what they're talking about.

Keith Weinhold (00:07:08) - Well geez. How's that for clarity and confidence from today's major decision makers on our economy? Gosh. Now, in my opinion, back in 2020, our government, they set up the wrong incentive structure to deal with the pandemic. Remember things like the PGP, the Paycheck Protection Program, remember mortgage loan forbearance and the eviction moratorium. See when that type of aid is given, well, then the result is that citizens don't learn that they need to keep some cash handy, and then that behavior that gets rewarded gets repeated in that behavior is handouts.

Keith Weinhold (00:07:53) - And then the expectation for more handouts. 56% of Americans don't even have $1,000 for an emergency expense. Well, see, they're not really incentivized to in the future. If in a crisis, everyone just gets another taxpayer funded handout, but then see those same people that got that handout get hurt in the long run. Anyway, with the longer run inflation that the handout created, don't let there be one day of austerity for the least prepared American, I guess. Instead, bail them out and add on to everyone's debt load, which you know that right there. That seems to be the playbook. Like that is the protocol of the day that is not responsible, in my view. Now, the minutes of the latest fed meeting, they said that some fed officials would be open to raising interest rates if inflation doesn't let up. I mean, that news alone that sent stocks plunging like they were riding the Tower of Terror, giving the Dow its worst day in a while. I'll discuss that more with the father of Reaganomics, David Stockman, today.

Keith Weinhold (00:09:01) - It's the kind of episode that can stretch your thinking here. Now, what is Reaganomics? Well, one thing that you should know is that it's committed to the doctrine of supply side economics. You probably heard that term before. And really what that's all about is lowering taxes, decreasing regulation, and allowing free trade and what was called the Reagan budget. That's something that his budget director Stockman expected would help curtail the welfare state. And he gained a reputation as a tough negotiator for that. He lives on the Upper East Side of Manhattan today, and it's kind of funny with macroeconomic discussions. You'll notice something here, the word million, that doesn't even come up that much anymore. It's simply a number that is too small. It is more like billion and trillion. And hey, let's see if the term three orders of magnitude above trillion comes up today. Quadrillion, or even the one after that quintillion. Is that where we're going next? We'll see. before we meet David Simon, I've gotten more questions about something, because the national average bank account pays less than 1% on your savings.

Keith Weinhold (00:10:18) - And where do you really get a decent yield on your savings, even beyond the 5% in an online only savings account or a CD, which that does not outpace true inflation? For years now, I've reliably been getting 8%. What I do is keep my dollars in a private liquidity fund. You can do this to your cash generates up to an 8% return. The minimum investment amount is just 25 K, and you keep getting paid until you decide that you want your money back. And the private liquidity fund has a decade plus track record, and they've always paid their investors 100% in full and on time. And I would know this because I am an investor with them myself. So see what it feels like to earn 8%. A lot of other great listeners are any investing involves risk, even dollars at a brick and mortar bank. So to learn more, just text the word family to 66866. Learn more about the liquidity fund. Get 8% interest. Just do it right now while you're thinking about it.

Keith Weinhold (00:11:23) - Text family to 66866. Let's meet David Stockman. A Wall Street and Washington insider and Harvard grad. Today's guest is a former two time congressman from Michigan, a prolific author, and he is none other than the man known as the father of Reaganomics. He was indeed President Ronald Reagan's budget advisor. Welcome to the show, David Stockman.

David Stockman (00:11:54) - Great to be with you. And, that was a while back. But I think there's some lessons from that time that we would be well advised to try to apply today, that's for sure.

Keith Weinhold (00:12:05) - Well, it's an illustrious title that you'll never shake. It's a pleasure to have you here. And David is a real estate investing show. At times we need to step back and look at the bigger picture. And now on the economy, one seems to get a different answer depending on who they speak with. You have a highly qualified opinion. What do both investors and citizens need to know today about the condition of the American economy?

David Stockman (00:12:29) - I don't think the outlook is very promising, but I think it's important to understand what that means for real estate investors, because the fact is, if you're in real estate and I know many of your listeners or viewers are very knowledgeable and sophisticated, there's really two ways to look at real estate.

David Stockman (00:12:49) - One is as a property that generates a flow of cash or income that is highly reliable, and that you can count on and produces a rate of return on the invested capital that's attractive. That's one way. The second way is that if you invest at the right time, when perhaps interest rates are falling and therefore multiples or cap rates are becoming more attractive and property values are rising rapidly, mainly because of easy money and lower interest rates, then there's a huge opportunity for capital gains. As another way of generating return on capital. But those are two obviously very different tracks. The capital gains route by old invest, improve flip flop the gain and move on or the, you know, income based rent and earnings based, approach to property. Now, I think the reason I went through this is pretty elementary, of course, is that the macro environment is very different between the first strategy and the second strategy. And therefore, the important thing to understand about the macro environment is which environment are you in and is it conducive to strategy a the income strategy or b the capital gains strategy? I would say right now we're totally in an incomes strategy environment, the first route.

David Stockman (00:14:34) - And that's because as we've gone through several decades of easy money, of rapidly rising asset values, of ultra low interest rates, very high multiples, in terms of property values to income that has generated trillions and trillions of capital gains for smart real estate investors. But I think we're out of that environment, and we're in an environment now where we're stuck with massive public debt and deficits. We're stuck with a, central bank that is, basically painted itself into a corner, created so much fiat credit, generated so much liquidity into the economy that now it will be struggling with inflation for years to come. Which means, notwithstanding Wall Street's constant belief that rate cuts are coming tomorrow, there won't be rate cuts for a long time to come. And what we're facing, therefore, there is likely higher rates for longer. A environment in which property values are flat if not declining, and therefore the capital gains route is not going to work very well. But if you have good properties with good tenants and good cash flows and, rental flows, real estate mine works out pretty well.

David Stockman (00:16:05) - But you have to understand the macro environment. And that's one of the things that I work on daily when I, publish my daily newsletter, which is called, David Stockman's Contra Corner.

Keith Weinhold (00:16:19) - You can learn more about Contra Corner, David's blog, before we're done today. David, you have a lot of interesting things to say. There we are in this environment where rates have been higher, longer. It sounds like you believe that is going to continue to be the. Case is rate cuts will be postponed is a little more difficult question. It's some crystal ball stuff. But can you tell us more about that? What can we expect for inflation in interest rates for the rest of this 2020s decade, which has about six years to go?

David Stockman (00:16:48) - There's going to be high rates for most of this decade because we have so much inflation and excess demand built into the economy. We really went overboard, especially after 2020 with the pandemic lockdowns and then these massive stimulus program, something like $6 trillion of added stimulus, was injected into the economy in less than 12 months.

David Stockman (00:17:16) - That created a undertow of inflation that is still with us. And despite all the hopeful commentary that comes from Wall Street, if you look at it year to date, I don't look at just the CPI because the headline number is somewhat volatile and can be pushed and pulled a lot from a month to month based on nonrecurring conditions. But if you look at something called the 16% trimmed mean CPI, it's just the same CPI, but it takes out the lowest 8%, the highest 8% of price observations each month out of the thousands in the market basket. What it does is basically takes the extreme volatility out of the top and the bottom, and gives you a trend that is more reliable if you're looking like on a quarter by quarter or year by year or even multi year basis, well, I mentioned this is important because the trim means CPI is still running at about 4.3% during the first four months of this year to date. That's not a victory over inflation. That's double what the fed says his target is. And frankly, the Fed's target is a little bit phony.

David Stockman (00:18:35) - I mean, what's so great about 2% inflation if you're a saver and your savings are, you know, shrinking by 30% over the course of a decade, so they're going to have a tremendous wrestling match with inflation, not just for a few more months, but I think for several more years in this decade, I don't see the federal funds rate, which is kind of the benchmark rate for overnight money coming down below 5% very soon, or if at all. And that's because with inflation running at 4% or better, if you have a 5% money market rate, you're barely getting a return on capital, especially if you factor in taxes. You know, it's like it's a rounding error and that doesn't work over time. I mean, you're not going to get long term savings. You're not going to get long term capital investment. If the return is after inflation and taxes are either non-existent or negative, as they've been for quite a while. So even though everybody would like to hope we're going back to the good old days of 0% over 90 money or 1% money, which they got so used to over the last couple of decades.

David Stockman (00:19:55) - It was bad policy. It wasn't sustainable. It caused a huge amount of bubbles and distortions in our economy. But once we finally got to the end of that in March 2022, when the fed had to finally pivot and say, yeah, inflation isn't transitory, it's, embedded, we got to do something about it. People think we're going right back to where we were, and that's the key thing to understand. We are not going right back to where we were, in part because of all this inflation business I've talked about, but also in part because they got so used to borrowing money on Capitol Hill and practically zero interest rates that they are now, you know, they have built in deficits of 2 trillion or more a year. And, we are going to be pushing into the bond pits, massive amounts of new government debt. There's no consensus to do anything about it. You know, if the Republicans talk about reforming the entitlements, the Democrats say you're throwing grandma out the snow. If the Democrats talk about raising revenue, the Republicans talked about, you're going to get slaughtered with higher taxes.

David Stockman (00:21:12) - And then everybody's for more wars and more defense and the bigger and bigger national security budget. And that's all she wrote. If you don't do with revenue, you don't do it national defense and entitlements. The rest of it is rounding errors. And so we're stuck with these massive additions to the debt. Now, everybody knows the public debt. Is 34 trillion. Ready? Yeah. What I'd say they don't understand is that by the end of this decade, you ask about the decade, right? Will we close to 60 trillion of debt. And, if you look at the last CBO, projection they do every year at long term projection, and CBO actually is more optimistic than it is warranted in any way. In other words, their long term assumptions I call rosy scenario. There's no more recessions for the next couple of decades. Inflation is well-behaved, interest rates stay low. Full employment lasts indefinitely and forever. Well, this doesn't happen. Look at the real world. Over the last 20 or 30 years, we've been all over the lot.

David Stockman (00:22:18) - So if you look at the CBO forecast, which is I'm just saying here is exceedingly optimistic. They never are the less are projecting that the public debt and they don't even write this number down in their report because it's too scary, will be $100 trillion before the middle of this century.

Keith Weinhold (00:22:41) - That's a.

David Stockman (00:22:42) - Trillion. Yeah. Now, if you ask people today who are market savvy, I like a lot of your viewers. Where are the Treasury bills, notes and bonds today? Well, if you average it all out, it's about 5%. I don't think it's going to come down much. It'll vary a little bit up and down over time, but let's just say it stays at 5%. That means the carry cost of the public debt of a couple decades will be 5 trillion a year. The interest okay. It's staggering. That's almost as much as the whole federal budget is spending this today at, you know, about 6.6 6.7 trillion. So that's where we're heading, a massive debt crisis because they built in a structural deficit that the politicians and I call it the unite party.

David Stockman (00:23:33) - They fight about silly things, but they agree on the big things which are leading to this outcome. The unit party has no ability to do anything about this structural deficit or the march from the 34 trillion that we're at today to 60 trillion by the end of the decade, and 100 trillion of public debt by mid-century. Now, for a real estate investor, that's probably the most important number you're going to hear. You know, at least this week or maybe this month or even this year, because what it means is that the amount of new government debt flowing into the bond pits, that'll have to be financed and that can't be monetized by the fed anymore because there's too much inflation, is going to put constant, enormous pressure upward on interest rates. And of course, higher interest rates mean lower property values. That's just basic real estate math. That's the environment we're heading into, which means good properties with good income and good rental flows are really the only way to go.

Keith Weinhold (00:24:55) - Yeah, well, there's an awful lot there.

Keith Weinhold (00:24:57) - And with this persistent higher inflation that you expect, the way I think about it is the higher the rate of inflation, the more that moves a person's dollars out of a savings account and instead out onto the risk curve. Well, David alluded to a problematic economy. We're going to come back and talk about more of those warning signs and what you can do about it. You're listening to Get Resuscitation, the father of Reaganomics and Ronald Reagan's budget director, David Stockman, I'm your host, Keith Reinhold. Role under this specific expert with income property, you need Ridge Lending Group and MLS for 256 injury history from beginners to veterans. They provided our listeners with more mortgages than anyone. It's where I get my own loans for single family rentals up to four Plex's. Start your pre-qualification and chat with President Charlie Ridge. Personally, they'll even customize a plan tailored to you for growing your portfolio. Start at Ridge Lending group.com Ridge lending group.com.

Speaker 7 (00:26:06) - This is author Jim Rickards. Listen to get Rich education with Keith Reinhold and don't quit your day dream.

Keith Weinhold (00:26:23) - Welcome back to Get Ready. So we're talking with the father of Reaganomics. His name is David Stockman, President Reagan's budget advisor. David, you've been talking about a problematic economy and places we can look and the outcomes that that can create. Why don't we talk about some more of those where we're here in a period where we feel like it's an official recession postponed, for example, are there other places that we should be looking? Is it the sustained inverted yield curve that we had for almost two years, the longest one ever, and a Great Recession predictor? Or is it that we're on the precipice of implosion from a debt to GDP ratio that's at 122%. It actually spiked to 133% when Covid first hit. Or for example, is it something and you've already touched on it a bit, is it more of that federal spending on our debts, interest payments alone each year, which had almost $900 billion for that interest line item that now even exceeds the massive $800 billion that we spend each year on national defense, or should we be looking at somewhere else? So what's out there that's really problematic and what's overblown?

David Stockman (00:27:28) - Okay.

David Stockman (00:27:29) - That's great. And all of those things you mentioned you should be looking at, it depends on your time frame. But I think on the initial question, where is this postponed recession? Why hasn't that happened? The place to look is somewhere that I think most Wall Street analysts aren't focused on, but they should be. And that's a series published by the Federal Reserve that tracks household balance sheets, in other words, liabilities and assets. But there's a particular series that I think is critically important to look at, and it's basically bank deposits, checking account savings accounts plus money market funds. This is all the liquid cash accounts of the household sector, not long term investments in real estate or stocks or bonds, but the short term money. It's the spendable money that households have now, what happened during the pandemic and lockdowns. And then the 6 trillion Is stems that were injected into the economy, like some kind of fiscal madness was going on in Washington, created a total aberration in the amount of cash in the economy, in the household sector, in these accounts that I just mentioned, normally right before the lockdown started and the stimulus was injected, you know, the level of cash accounts was about 12 trillion.

David Stockman (00:29:00) - Within two years it was up to 18 trillion. And normally that cash balance grows about the same rate as the economy. In other words, as incomes go up, people save a small share of their income that goes into various bank accounts. There tends to be a lock step relationship. But what happened during that two year period was there was so much extra cash sent out to the households with the $2,000 checks in the $600 a week extra stimulus money, and then the, trillions that went, you know, for things like the Small Business Administration loan program, which was all forgivable, was about almost upwards of $1 trillion. You know, we could itemize all the others. But this enormous government, unusual cash flow into the economy added to these bank accounts enormously. And then something else happened. The geniuses in Washington, led by Doctor Fauci, decided to shut down half of the service sector, the economy. I'm talking with restaurants and bars and gyms, malls and movies and and all the rest of it.

David Stockman (00:30:09) - So all of a sudden, the normal money that people would have been spending on the service venues, which is a big part of total spending, was stopped. It was kind of forced into artificial savings, sort of government mandated savings. Now, if you put the two together, there was about 2 trillion, extra transfer payments sent out to the public during that two year period. And there was a little over a trillion of normal service spending, restaurants in, etc. that didn't happen because there was a closed sign on the door, compliments of Doctor Fauci, or people were scared to death to go out because, you know, they created all this fear that Covid was some form of black death, which it really wasn't for 95% of the population. In any event, if you put the extra free stuff from the government, 2 trillion and the for savings because of these lockdowns, trillion, you have 3 trillion of unusual cash that flowed into the economy on top of the normal production. Income and profits and spending that would have otherwise gone on.

David Stockman (00:31:26) - Now that 3 trillion temporarily ended up in this account, that I'm just talking about the cash balances of the household sector and its peak, there was about 2.8 trillion extra compared to what would been be the normal case in a regular economy. In a normal economy, that money has been slowly spent down by the household sector, even as the fed has tried to put the screws to the economy. In other words, there was so much extra cash in the system that even as the fed raised interest rates from 0 to 5% and did their darndest to slow things down, all of that excess that was built up during the pandemic period was available to spend. It was spent. And here's the key point. About half of it is now been spent. In other words, there's only about a trillion and a half of the nearest 3 trillion left. Now that is what's delayed the recession. If that big, massive 3 trillion nest egg had been there and the fed began to push rates up as it normally did in a normal cycle, we would have been in recession months ago.

David Stockman (00:32:41) - But what has delayed or deferred the recession is this, cushion, this huge macro piggybank of cash that the government inadvertently or adversely is the case may be generated, during the pandemic period. So that's new. See that? Nobody looks at that because normally it's not a factor. You know, the cash balances are a pretty, prosaic, neutral part of the economy. They're not where you look for the leading edge of where the cycle was going or where new developments may turn up tomorrow. But this time, because of this total aberration of what happened to government transfer payments plus the lockdowns, we have a, X factor, let's call it in the macro picture that is confusing people. It's leading a lot of people to abdicate this no landing scenario. In other words, you know, there's not going to be a recession. We're just going to go on to bigger and better things. And, the fed will get inflation under control and then we can be back to happy times again. No, they're missing.

David Stockman (00:33:56) - The elephant in the room is this massive aberrational unusual one time cash balance that was, generated by these policies. And that still has a little ways to go now. I think at the rate it's being run down, you can almost calculate it a couple hundred billion dollars, a quarter sometime next year, all of that extra cash will be out of the system. And then people will be back to spending only what they're earning. And frankly, earnings they're not. I'm talking about wage and salary earnings, are advancing barely at the inflation rate at the present time. So when we get back to about zero real growth in earnings, we're going to finally see the recession.

Keith Weinhold (00:34:45) - I think one of the big takeaways here is that all these artificial economic injections really take time to unwind.

David Stockman (00:34:56) - Exactly. You have to look at, you know, they always say, well, when the government changes policy, fiscal policy, you tighten or you loosen or monetary policy they raise or lower interest rates. They got QE or they got cute putting money in or taking money out that there's lag and lead times in all of this.

David Stockman (00:35:18) - The problem is, none of the great economic gurus who talk about this really know whether the lag time is 12 months, 25 months, 50 or 5, and it varies. I mean, the circumstance has changed so much in a world GDP of 104 trillion, a domestic economy with 28 trillion of GDP, and all the complex factors that are moving back and forth in today's world, especially as it's enabled by technology and global trade and the internet and all the rest of it, nobody knows the lag times. And as a result, it's very hard to predict when the, brown stuff is going to hit the fan, so to speak. On the other hand, you don't have to know the exact date. You really need to understand the direction, the flow of things. And if you're in an environment that isn't sustainable because you're borrowing like crazy or interest rates or artificially. Low or stock price multiples are way the L2 ie or cap rates on real estate or you know, abnormally low. Then what you have to say is we're going to a different state.

David Stockman (00:36:35) - It's not going to be as conducive as the current state, and we have to be prepared for it, even if we are not sure whether that's 12 months from now or 24 months. But it's going to change. So one thing you can be sure of, there is a famous economist back in my day when I worked on Capitol Hill earlier on, he was Nixon's chief economic adviser in the early 70s. And he famously formulated an aphorism, I guess, which said anything that is unsustainable tends to stop. Okay, that's what I know about the lag times. We're in unsustainable financial, fiscal and monetary environment. And the trends that it has given rise to are going to stop and and not in a good way.

Keith Weinhold (00:37:24) - He even fed Chair Jerome Powell has confessed as much as that. This situation is indeed unsustainable, the exact word that he used. Well, David, this has been great in winding down as Ronald Reagan's budget director. Can you share any anecdote, story or quote from you spending time personally with Ronald Reagan? And the reason I ask is because he is perhaps the most revered president of the past few generations.

Keith Weinhold (00:37:52) - That might mean a lot to our listeners here.

David Stockman (00:37:54) - He should be revered, and not only because he was a great president and a great communicator, and did a lot of important things in policy. Some of them got implemented, and a lot of them were frustrated by Washington and the politicians and the Democrats and everybody else. But also, he was a great human being. And my story about that was when I was budget director, in the fifth year of the Reagan administration, we had our first child, and my wife was in the hospital. At that point in time, President Reagan was in Europe on a very important big international, series of meetings. But, somebody in the white House told him that our daughter had been born. And so he took the time out of his schedule for a call from Germany, the hospital where my wife was, and said he would like to talk to her and, congratulate us on our new arrival. But my wife was in a room with another, a new mother.

David Stockman (00:38:53) - She the other person answered the phone and she said to my wife, there's some joker on the phone with President Reagan. And sure enough, he was there. and he took the time to congratulate my wife. And, so that's the kind of, person he was. He really was a great human being.

Keith Weinhold (00:39:13) - Wow. Yeah. That really shows that he can still be warm and heartfelt, even while doing some key international negotiations there. Potentially. Well, we mentioned it earlier. I can tell you, the audience, that David is a regular author and contributor to his Contra Corner blog and letter, and you can get access to that for free. This is information coming from the father of Reaganomics to you. If you think you would find it a value. David, tell us how our audience can connect with you there.

David Stockman (00:39:44) - Just Google David Stockman Contra corner I publish, I have a website, issues a newsletter every day. It comes automatically in the email. I also have a Substack version. You can sign up for either one, the email from my site or from Substack.

David Stockman (00:40:02) - And every day we try to publish something on these issues that we've been talking about. One day it might be Wall Street, another day it might be Capitol Hill, another day it might be, you know, the war in Ukraine. All of these things matter. All of these things influence the environment that investors have to function in. So we try to comment on a variety of those issues based on, you know, the long experience that I've had, both not only in Washington, but also I was on Wall Street, for about 20 years. I was one of the founding partners of Blackstone, for instance. And we were in the real estate business in a major way, even then.

Keith Weinhold (00:40:44) - Well, we absolutely love that. And I sure am appreciative of your time. It was great connecting with you. And thanks for being on the program today, David.

David Stockman (00:40:53) - Very good. Enjoyed it.

Keith Weinhold (00:41:01) - Yeah. Deep insights from the father of Reaganomics. Stockman thinks we'll be struggling with inflation for years to come.

Keith Weinhold (00:41:08) - There won't be rate cuts for a long time. He sees real estate values as flat or declining, so have good tenants with steady income streams. Of course, in our favoured real estate segment here, residential 1 to 4 units where you can get 30 year fixed rate debt. Higher mortgage rates tend to correlate with higher prices, just like it has for the last three years and almost every period before that too. But there could be more pain for the commercial sector then, and assets that are tied to floating rate debt. And if you're aligned with David Stockman on that, you might want to look at your helocs, because after a fixed rate period, their rates tend to float along with the fed funds rate. So be cautious with Helocs and ask David for specifics. He doesn't see the federal funds rate coming down below 5% anytime soon, and you probably know that is the interest rate that a whole bunch of other interest rates are based off of. And that rate is currently at about 5.3%. By the way, there is projected to be more than 100 t more than $100 trillion of public debt before the middle of this century.

Keith Weinhold (00:42:22) - That's less than 25 years away. I mean, these figures just become unfathomable sometimes. Pandemic wrought inflation that really occurred due to this greater supply of dollars that was introduced chasing a reduced supply of goods. And there were fewer goods because people got paid to stay at home not producing anything. Plus, what had been produced often could not be shipped either. David discussed the 16% trimmed mean CPI, and I've got to say, as much as I am a student devotee in studying inflation, I had never heard of that from his vantage point to find recession signs, look at household balance sheets and what's delayed the recession is that those pandemic measures put an extra 3 trillion bucks into households, and households still have about 1.5 trillion left to spend, which could further delay a recession. He projects that it's sometime next year that all of that extra cash will be out of the system. When you talk to how many people got this recession predictions so horribly wrong? Back in October 2022, Bloomberg Economics forecast a 100% chance of a recession by the following fall, which is almost a year ago now.

Keith Weinhold (00:43:48) - Well, a 100% chance that left no room for anything else to happen. And they really whiffed on that one. Now, you know, I've got to add something here. A personal note if I can, but I'll give you a lesson along with it. And that is that at times like today, where I found myself one degree of separation from one of the most revered presidents in all of American history, I sometimes have some difficulty understanding how I keep having the opportunity to share time with people like today's guest. Now, I'm certainly not a PhD economist. And in fact, on the flip side, I've also never been a person that's been so poor and destitute that I was dying of hunger. But I do come from a modest place. When I flew the coop and left my parents home, I rented my first pathetic place to live a $325 a month pool house in the back of my landlord's property at 852 Spruce Avenue in Westchester, Pennsylvania. Yeah, a pathetic little pool house right next to the landlord's swimming pool.

Keith Weinhold (00:45:04) - I mean, I was living really pathetically there for a while as I was struggling just to do things like find gainful employment and figure out the world and find a steady income. Yeah, it was 325 a month plus electric and the one small heater that was there, it was electric and it was really expensive to run. And on the coldest days, it wouldn't even adequately heat my pathetic little pool house that I ended up living in for 18 months. And just because I couldn't figure a way out of that situation for a while, I mean, I was too ashamed to ever bring a girl back there to that sad pool house. It was just one sink for the whole place. Combined kitchen and bathroom sink in the bathroom. I mean, most of my friends, they got their driver's license at age 16 and they soon had their own car. I didn't own a car until I was aged 22 or 23, and it's not because I lived in an urban area and walked. Everywhere use public transit there in Pennsylvania.

Keith Weinhold (00:46:02) - It just took me a long time to afford a beater car and pay for insurance. I really needed a car and couldn't afford one. So really my point here is that sometimes I have to wonder how I got here from there. And I think what it is is taking an interest in real estate and investing. And despite just having a humble bachelor's degree in geography, it's really about becoming an autodidact, meaning self-taught. And it's easy to teach yourself when you find what interests you. And let me point to two other things besides adopting an auto didactic ethic to help me turn the corner into being in a place where I can have conversations like the one that I've had today. It was getting around aspirational friends. Like I've mentioned before, that showed me how I can start with a bang buy with little money. On my first home, I could put a 3.5% down payment on a fourplex, live in one unit and rent out the other three. And I will give myself some credit for doing those things. And then really, the third thing is that stroke of luck element, like just 4% of world inhabitants have been.

Keith Weinhold (00:47:15) - I was one of that 4% that was born in the United States. And then I had two great, married, stable, supportive parents to cultivate the right environment for me. And well, today was just one of those days where I sort of nudged myself and I'm glad that it happened. Most importantly, I trust that you got value from today's show and that you do every single week here. Check out David Stockman's Contra Corner. Next week, we'll look for signs of distress in real estate as we delve inside the foreclosure market and how you can find discounted deals there. Until then, Idaho's Keith Wayne hold don't quit your day trip.

Speaker 8 (00:48:02) - Nothing on this show should be considered specific, personal or professional advice. Please consult an appropriate tax, legal, real estate, financial or business professional for individualized advice. Opinions of guests are their own. Information is not guaranteed. All investment strategies have the potential for profit or loss. The host is operating on behalf of get Rich education LLC exclusively. The.

Keith Weinhold (00:48:30) - The preceding program was brought to you by your home for wealth building.

Keith Weinhold (00:48:34) - Get rich education.com.

Direct download: GREepisode504_.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 4:00am EST

Mon, 27 May 2024

We’ve already had more inflation in this young 2020s decade than the entire 2010s.

If the next forty years have as much inflation as the last forty, gas will cost $13.38 per gallon, the average home $1.88 million, and the average rent $59,000 annually.

Inflation impoverishes most people. You can profit from it 3 ways at the same time. Watch the free 3-part video series: GetRichEducation.com/TripleCrown.

The 30-year fixed rate mortgage is a uniquely American construct. It virtually exists nowhere else in the world. I compare this to mortgage terms in Europe, Canada and Australia.

In much of the world, homeowners have had their mortgage payments double overnight!

Trends that won’t soon be disrupted: more inflation, people need to live somewhere, there aren’t enough places to live. That’s so simple! Invest in it.

Rents are increasing the most where little new supply has been added.

There’s a myth that gigantic institutional investors are gobbling up all the single-family rental homes. But they only own 3% of the market. Mom & pops own 80%.

Single-family rents are up 3.4% per CoreLogic. Detached SFHs are up more than attached types.

Property prices and rents are positively correlated. Some people falsely think that they move inversely.

Resources mentioned:

Profit from inflation 3 ways:

GetRichEducation.com/TripleCrown

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GRE Investment Coach, start here:

Get mortgage loans for investment property:

RidgeLendingGroup.com or call 855-74-RIDGE

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502: The BRRRR Investing Strategy: Your Path to Infinite Returns

Complete episode transcript:

Welcome to GRE! I’m your host, Keith Weinhold. Learn how the misery of INFLATION is altering BOTH your quality of life and the return on ALL of your investments…

… also, many people are now having their mortgage payments DOUBLE overnight and IT’S creating pain, then, what are the factors affecting the future direction of RENTS - all that, and more, today on Get Rich Education!

______________

Welcome to GRE! You’re listening to one of the longest-running and most listened-to shows on real estate investing. This is Get Rich Education. I’m your host, Keith Weinhold - the voice of RE since 2014.

I don’t know if you fully realize how much inflation is steering all of your investments - and it’s emphatic at a time like this when the dollar is down 25% cumulatively just in the last four years. Gosh!

And I’ve got some jaw-dropping inflation fact to share with you soon.

We’ll get to inflation’s RE affects shortly. But here’s what I mean.

In stocks, they keep riding up on a wave of optimism, anticipating a Fed interest rate cut - largely due to future INFLATION expectations. Yes, there’s jobs & GDP and some other factors.

But the stock market - which is a FORWARD-looking market - it moves based on what’s expected to happen 6 to 12 months from now.

STOCK investors know that rate cuts open the floodgates to get us closer to the “easy money” days again.

That’s why - as backwards as it is, the worse the economy looks, the lower that inflation tends to be, and then, in turn, the lower that interest rates can go, which the stock market likes.

So a worsening economy often pumps up the stock market. Soooo backwards.

Just look at what happens historically. Recessions sound bad. Yet what happens is that rates get cut in a recession - because the economy needs the help.

But nearer-term, it’s this ongoing expectation of the rate cut - that’s been looming out there for months but hasn’t happened - which CAN keep propelling the stock market to higher highs. It’s already hit all-time highs here recently. You can make the CASE that stocks should keep floating higher from here… based on that premise.

Before we look at real estate & inflation. Understand this.

Inflation has already widened the divide between the affluent and the deprived. That divide has gone from a gully to a canyon.

But... my gosh! Here’s the stat that I want to share with you. And you’re really going to get a sense for the gravity of what you’re living through this decade.

We've already seen more inflation in the first 51 months of the 2020s decade than in the ENTIRE decade of the 2010s. Already.

This gets really interesting. Let’s look at about the last four decades here.

Alright, in the 1990s decade, America had 34% cumulative inflation. Let’s go ahead and… we’ll associate this decade with President Bill Clinton.

We won’t tie any President to the inflation number because there are lag effects and other factors. A President really can’t take the credit or blame, in most cases. Just marking the era here.

So, 34% inflation in the 1990s.

The 2000s decade saw the GFC and… 29% inflation. Most of those were George W. Bush years.

The 2010s decade saw lower inflation → Just 19%. So that’s under 2% a year. These were mostly the Obama years here in the 2010s.

Little flex there from the former Commander in Chief.

Then the 2020s decade → have seen, like I alluded to, and under Joseph Robinette Biden, Jr. - yes, as the oldest sitting president ever, it’s easy to forget that he’s a “junior. In this young 2020s decade, we have, 21% cumulative inflation. Already.

So this figure is after just the first 51 months of this decade, if we’re counting from 2020… and this is largely due to supply shortages from the COVID pandemic.

So 21% ALREADY this decade… and just 19% ALLLL of last decade which was a full decade. That’s the impact.

That’s reflective of what you see in home prices and rent prices and utilities, transportation, labor, and almost every facet of your life.… and what you see in your weekly Costco bill and Trader Joe’s bill.

Who have we left out here? A one-term president, so far? Does somebody feel left out.

Yes, that is the actual person of one Donald John Trump.

Psssshhh!

All of those figures I cited are from the BLS, and I’ve been rounding to nearest whole percent.

But get this! Inflation over the next forty years could make the LAST 40 years seem like a picnic.

That's partly because we're $35T in debt and that figure now grows by $1T every single quarter… every 90 to 100 days. So we MUST keep dollar-printing to help pay it back.

But just, if the last forty years repeats itself, by the year 2064, which is the next forty years, we'll see these prices. Prepare for a future that looks like this:

Gas at $13.38 per gallon

The home price at $1.88 million

Average rent at $59,000 per year

And the average salary at $104,000

That is if inflation over the next 40 years, looks like that last 40 years.

Also, note how salaries don't keep pace with prices. That $104K average salary in the year 2064 doesn’t sound as high-flying as those other figures.

Well, this is all really frustrating for consumers… and even debilitating to one’s standard of living. Remember, this latest wave of inflation brought us the biggest YOY increase in homelessness - based on HUD figures.

and why you need to invest in something that reliably BENEFITS from inflation and pays you an income at the same time.

Look, here’s really, the deal. Dollars are abundant. So then isn’t it a paradox that a major spike in the supply of dollars would create more homelessness?

Well, you know that dollars are there for your taking - because so many more have been brought into existence. Dollars are abundant. So as they cycle through the economy, rather than going through the consumer motions, you can build your diverter. That’s where the world of abundance exists, so get into that flow.

Ultimately, REAL capital is scarce. Your time and energy are scarce. Natural resources are scarce. Labor is scarce.

What’s frustrating is that money ought to reflect that scarcity if it is going to accurately convey the value that enables people to make capital accumulation decisions.

And alas, we’re doing our measuring in dollars and the dollar is not remotely scarce.

The middle class and poor often have wages that don't track inflation, yet they disproportionately suffer the higher consumer prices.

The investor class owns assets that float up with inflation. And GRE listeners will do even better than that.

As income property owners with mortgages, we're winning three ways at the same time with the Inflation Triple Crown. That’s your dollar diverter.

Alright, so that’s longer-term inflation. I’ve been talking in terms of decades - both the past and with an extrapolation into the future to 2064 there - and it’s really rather sobering.

Well, what's the more CURRENT inflation situation? The situationship? Ha! What’s the situationship now?

In trying to quiet it down to their 2% target, the Fed has run into so many hurdles that you'd think they were training for this summer's Olympics in Paris.

After it peaked over 9% two full years ago now, inflation’s been bouncing near 3-and-a-half-percent for a year and they just keep having trouble getting it lower than that.

Hmmm... would we say that this could turn into Jerome Powell's three-quarters life crisis? We’ll see.

Rising inflation is one of the key factors that brought down the Roman Empire. They famously experienced hyperinflation after a series of emperors lowered the silver content of their currency, called the denarius.

Today, some lament that the dollar isn't backed by gold, silver, or anything else.

But it is.

It's backed by the world's most powerful military, strongest economy, reserve currency status, international trade agreements, and you also… must pay your taxes in dollars.

Dollars are still liquid and useful… but perpetually debased, so get them and then transition out of them.

Yet, at the same time, we're also the greatest debtor nation in world history. The easiest way to pay it all back is to simply print more and inflate more.

So that’s why it's almost inevitable that dollars will keep being worth less... and BTW, the two words “worth less” sound awfully close to the word “worthless”. Ha!

That’s where we keep heading.

Until you can send a Venmo request to the Fed to compensate you for your loss in purchasing power, we need to actually do something about this.

And the dollar that you had when you started listening to me today could very well now only be worth 99 cents. Ha!

We can either have our standard of living degraded by inflation or we will decide to profit from it.

So, if you haven't yet, check out GetRichEducation.com/TripleCrown.

Rather than impoverish you, learn how you can make inflation CREATE wealth for you three ways at the same time with that free, 3-part Inflation Triple Crown video series. Good learning there.

It’s free & easy to watch, again, at GetRichEducation.com/TripleCrown

Inflation seemingly seeps into everything.

Inflation took down the commercial sector - Apt buildings & offices. Apts are down 30-40% in the last two years. It’s all because inflation made the Fed panic and jack up those rates.

If that’s not jaw-dropping enough. Office values are down 80%+ in the last two years. 80%+, 90%+ in some cases.

Of course, office RE got the double-whammy of the inflation-induced interest rate hikes AND the Work-From-Anywhere movement.

That leaves residential 1-4 unit properties in good standing - and still impacted by inflation, but LESS impacted by inflation.

Yeah, your 1-4 unit RENTS are up - and I’ll talk more about rent later in the show today.

inflation also jacked up your expenses like insurance, utilities, maintenance & repair cost and more.

But as we move away from the inflation conversation now, of course, one big reason that 1-4s have stayed resilient is the American privilege of LTFIRD - and the fact that it’s 30 years for most US properties.

In fact, in 2022, 89% of homebuyers applied for the 30-year.

I think that you’re about to get more appreciation for this… perhaps than you’ve ever had.

The 30-year FRM is a UNIQUELY American construct.

And, BTW, some people don’t seem to know what the word “unique” means. You’ve probably heard people misusing this word all the time.

Unique does not mean something that’s sort of different.

Unique means “ONE of a kind”. Unique means something that does not exist ANYWHERE else.

What do I do here on this show? Besides giving you the occasional geography lesson as a side dish to your real estate, I do this with vocabulary, grammar, and syntax as well, don’t I?

Even though my own is surely imperfect.

Anyway, the reason that the 30-year mortgage can exist is due to our deep financial markets - especially our secondary market for mortgage-backed securities, where your loan gets packaged up and purchased by a bond investor - a bit like Ridge Lending Group President Caeli Ridge & I touched on last week.

The reason that mortgage-backed securities are attractive to investors in the U.S. and across the globe is because their government sponsorship makes them safe investments over long periods of time. They also provide a fixed payout to the MBS holder.

And see, the rate on the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage tracks closely to 10-year Treasurys because “U.S. real estate is almost as good an investment as a U.S. Treasury bond.”

They’ve got Fannie & Freddie insurance.

And that entire MBS process now has more guardrails in it than we had before the Global Financial Crisis.

We’re talking about the foundation here - really - of where you get your big lumps of money from - the 30-year FRM and its uniqueness.

Compared to the world, the US has very little variable rate debt.

Less than 4% of American mortgage borrowers have debt that’s on rate terms of a year or less. Over 96% of US debt is LTFRD, defined as 10 years or more.

That is virtually unparalleled worldwide. To compare us to some other developed nations, mortgage borrowers in Germany - just 47% of them have long-term fixed debt - and none of them can get 30-year debt.

Long-term debt, again, defined as ten years or more,

Is little to ZILCH for mortgage borrowers in Canada, the UK, Ireland, Italy, Sweden, Finland, Australia, and other developed nations like them.

In Canada, the most common mortgage terms reset to the prevailing market interest rate every five years.

In Finland, their mortgages reset annually or faster. Gosh, can you imagine if your mortgage rate reset every year like it does for the Finns?

Sheesh, that's more often than some people lose the remote control or rearrange their furniture.

OK. So what's this really mean?

Ya gotta… pour one out for most mortgage borrowers in the rest of the world.

They can’t lock in their mortgage interest rate for the long-term. So with rates doubling or tripling, starting from 3 years ago, it's totally ruined a lot of foreign homeowners.

Look, what if you're middle class and your monthly mortgage payment soars from $1,893 on Tuesday up to $3,415 on Wednesday?

That's what's happening elsewhere. It can go up 50% overnight and nearly double overnight in Australia, Europe and elsewhere.

But in the mortgage-advantaged US, we're safe.

If we buy at an 8% mortgage rate on a 30-year fixed amortizing loan today—just the plain, vanilla loan:

If rates rise to 10% later, you're happy to be locked-in at 8%

If rates fall to 6% later, you'll refinance

Note that I refrain from saying "just refinance". I don't like the word "just". You'll still need hours to provide documentation and your credit score will be checked. But it's worth it.

You won’t “just refinance”. Ha! You’ll refinance.

So think of it this way then, you can alter your deal with the bank whenever you want—and usually with no prepayment penalty. Yet the bank can't alter it on you.

What did Darth Vader say to Lando Calrissian in the “Empire Strikes Back?”. I am altering the deal, pray that I don’t alter it any further.

Ha! We better not play that clip here. I don’t know the copyright laws with LucasFilm or Disney there. Ha!

But you’re not a dark lord of the Sith for doing it… for altering the deal on the bank. You’re playing within the rules.

This is almost an unfair advantage for Americans.

The bottom line here - with this unique American advantage, is that, as rates change, you get to play both sides of the game. And that’s why we add smart properties with loans.

We turn that into wealth, with compound LEVERAGE.

Now, mere compound interest, that’s a vehicle for you to rely on more for your shorter-term funds, your cash or what you’re keeping more liquid.

Long-term wealth is build through compound LEVERAGE.

Short-term funds - that’s for compound INTEREST.

And… your bank is getting rich off of YOU. The national average bank account pays less than 1% on your savings.

If your money isn’t making about 4-5% today, you’re losing your hard-earned cash to inflation.

What I do, is keep my dollars in a private LIQUIDITY FUND. You can do this too.

Your cash generates up to an 8% return with—COMPOUND INTEREST—year in and year out instead of earning less than 1% sitting in your bank account - or even 4-5% elsewhere.

The minimum investment is just $25K.

You keep getting paid until you decide you want your money back. This private LIQUIDITY FUND has a decade-plus track record - and they’ve always paid their investors 100% in full and on time. I would know… because, I'm an investor with them myself.

See what it feels like to earn 8%. A lot of other GRE listeners are. To learn more, just text the word FAMILY to 66866 to learn more about Freedom Family Investments' LIQUIDITY FUND. Get 8% interest! Just do it right now, while you’re thinking about it. Text FAMILY to 66866.

More straight ahead, including what’s happening with rents. I’m Keith Weinhold. You’re listening to Get Rich Education.

_____________

Welcome back… you’re listening to Episode 503 of Get Rich Education. I’m your host, Keith Weinhold.

We’ve got a poll result, from our Get Rich Education Instagram Page.

The poll question was simple. “When buying property, what’s more important?”

The purchase price or the mortgage rate.

71% of you said the purchase price. 29% of you said the mortgage rate.

Of course, both are important, but I think that the PURCHASE PRICE is the best answer - because your purchase price stays fixed for the life of your ownership period, and you can CHANGE your fixed mortgage rate and make it malleable… whenever it suits your needs.

As we talk about where the OPPORTUNITY is today, though multifamily apartments are going to bottom out sometime and therefore, at some point, they’ll make a wise investment - who REALLY knows - maybe the time for larger apartments is now…

… one opportunity is… giving good people OPTIONS during a housing affordability crisis.

And what’s going on right now is that… let me put it this way… when people have a hard time affording their own home today, basically (ha!) people are having a hard time transitioning from resenting their landlord to bickering with an HOA.

Ha! That’s kind of how the world works.

Seemingly everyone would rather be bickering with an HOA rather than resenting their landlord.

A lot of renters want to be buyers… they can’t… and that isn’t expected to change anytime soon… as prices will likely stay elevated… and mortgage rates are staying higher, longer too.

These things are ALMOST “knowns”. It’s often wise… to invest in trends that are known. Nothing’s completely predictable, but when you’re looking for a place to park your investment dollars, a few other things… are known… right now.

And AI is not expected to change what I’m about to tell you… anytime soon.

VR - virtual reality is not about to change what I’m about to tell you anytime soon.

AR - augmented reality isn’t either. Machine learning won’t imminently disrupt this.

And that is, that… everyone expects more long-term inflation. At what rate, no one knows.

People will need to live somewhere… and there are not enough places to live.

Those three facts, right there, are so simple. I love simple. Ha! One reason I love simple things is that I can remember it.

So many investors - investors in all types of things, say, from tech EFTs to junior mining stocks to crypto - you can make money there.

But, at times, investors will unnecessarily go out on the risk curve and GUESS and speculate… at a future trend.

Some are right. They’re often wrong, and adopting too much of that approach… that’s exactly when your risk-adjusted return goes down throughout your investor life.

Instead, you can get great returns - real estate pays 5 ways-type of returns - in these trends that I just described that are near certainties.

Why guess? When instead, you can almost be certain.

Often times, the certain thing is right… there.

It’s often easier, like I think I brought up on the show once before, inspired by Jeff Bezos - don’t ask what will change in 10 years.

The more insightful question and profitable question that fewer people think to ask is actually - “What will be the SAME in ten years?”

Well, when we talk about rents and the fact that tenants WILL keep paying you to live somewhere ten years from now, the trend that’s taking place here in the mid-20s decade - here in the mid 2020s, is that…

Rents are increasing the most where there hasn’t been enough new supply added - up 5-6% in parts of the Northeast including New York and Boston - Seattle too… and parts of the Midwest. Detroit and Honolulu rents are each up about 5%.

Rents are decreasing the least, and even declined - where they’ve added lots of new supply recently, like Austin, Texas and Miami, where they’re down 3% or more in each. New Orleans is another major city that’s down - at minus 1%.

But among the larger cities, Austin, Texas is the WORST performer in the nation right now.

If you’re listening to this either this week or you’re listening to this ten years from today, if you want to know future rent trends, look at where they’re adding supply.

Especially in apartments. But all these new apartments will fill up and nationally, they’re building fewer apartments this year than last year’s apartment-building boom.

When we talk about rents and who owns SINGLE-FAMILY HOMES, there are a few myths that I want to help bust for you here.

There seems to be this misconception or misinformation that GIANT Wall Street firms are buying up all the SFRs. That’s just not true.

Now, there is more participation from the big firms than there has been historically, but those that own 1 to 9 SFRs… which is our definition of mom & pop investors here… constitute 80% of the SFR market.

80% own one to nine units. Now, you might own more than 9.

In fact, 14% are in that next tier up, owning 10 to 99 SFRs. Then 3% - known as small national investors own between a hundred and a thousand.

And, what’s left, the big institutional investors - those that own 1,000+ SFRs - and you’ve heard of some of these companies - Invitation Homes, and another is American Homes 4 Rent.

Progress Residential, Blackstone, First Key Homes - all those big players own just 3% of the market.

So again, 80% are the small ones - the mom & pops… a highly fractured market.

There are a total of 82 million SFHs in the United States. Out of all of them, do you have any idea what percent are OOed and how many are rentals?

It’s 83% OOed and 17% of the single-families are rentals. So about one-sixth of SFHs are rented out.

Now, here’s the thing. Some people tend to think of mom and pop single-family rental operators as unsophisticated charity case workers who never raise rents.

That’s part of the perception out there.

But that narrative has never really been true, and, in fact, the COO of American Homes 4 Rent - his name’s Bryan Smith - recently brought up this key point on their recent earnings call.

He said that while historically mom and pops hadn't always priced directly to market because of a lack of market data, "they've migrated into a strategy that's closer to ours."

How is this and why is this? Anymore, why ARE mom & pops raising rents just about as aggressively as the big institutional players.

It’s really increased transparency on the rents that landlords are asking… through internet listing sites like Zillow.

It's not that mom and pops didn't increase rents before. (I mean… just look at what happened with rising rents in the 1970s and 80s before institutions were in the sector.)

But when there's a lack of rent amount transparency, it takes longer for operators to discover and adjust to market pricing-- especially for smaller players in a deeply fragmented market.

That's the part that’s changing.

But see, increased transparency works both ways. It’s good for you and bad for you as a property investor.

This information helps tenants too. In upswing markets, operators may push rents faster than they would otherwise.

But in a downswing market, operators may cut or keep rents flat faster in order to lease the unit.

Because tenants can easily see what other LLs are charging and compare features. When you price too high, units sit vacant and generate no income.

Since renters benefit from increased transparency too, if they see two similar homes, they're usually picking the better deal.

And increased transparency is why NEW lease rent growth is cooling off.

In fact, CoreLogic just released their latest SF Rent Index report last week. It showed that, nationally rents are up 3.4%, which coincidentally, happens to be the same as the latest CPI inflation number.

Detached properties are seeing more rent growth than ATTACHED ones - like townhomes. If you think about it, that makes sense. Townhomes are in less demand now.

Because the homeownership dream, is when one moves out of the apartment & buys a detached house.

And since that’s so unaffordable to buy here in the 2020s decade, that’s why more people are willing to pay more for to rent the detached type.

Note that SFR rent growth has moderated since mortgage rates spiked-- further dispelling the sticky myth that rents boom when home sales fall.

Remember - when homes price growth is really hot - like it was in 2021 and 2022 - near 15% - rent growth tends to be hot too. It was ALSO near 15%.

And when home price growth is moderate, like it is now, well, rent price growth is moderate too.

Prices and rents move together. They’re POSITIVELY correlated. Some people think they move inversely… and we’re looking at history over hunches again - what REALLY happens here.

So though you’re almost certainly going to get nominal rent growth over time, it’s not a good thing for you to count on it in the short-term - it NEVER is, in any era.

The time for you to push rents is, of course, in any market, when you go for NEW leases. A new lease with a new tenant is going to be higher than a renewal lease.

It’s the ol’ - this has been a good tenant for three years, so I don’t want to push the rent too hard & lose them.

To review what you’ve learned today, inflation is affecting ALL of your investments, 30-year FRMs are a UNIQUE American advantage…

…it’s wise to invest in future trends that are KNOWN, if you want to know what is going to happen with rents in the near future, look where they’ve added supply.

Less new supply correlates with more rent growth… and large institutional investors own just 3% of SFRs.

If you enjoy the show, please, tell a friend about it.

Isaiah on LI had the most flattering comment. Over there, he wrote and called GRE “The best podcast on the planet.”

I… really don’t think that I can take credit for that, though… I’d like to think we’re a good resource for building your wealth through REI and regularly informing you, giving you ideas that you’ve never thought about before that add real value to your life.

You’ve heard of Bidenomics. The first portmanteau type that I ever heard about a President’s economic policies is REAGANomics, though it was a little before my time.

Here on the show next week, with us, will be none other than “The Father of Reaganomics”.

Yes, late President RONALD REAGAN’S Budget Director will be here next week. Basically, he was Reagan’s “Money Guy”.

His name is David Stockman and he often met with the President in the Oval Office, advising Reagan on economic affairs.

I have asked David Stockman, if besides talking about the condition of today’s economy next week, he’ll also discuss real estate - and he agreed to do so.

That’s “The Father of Reaganomics”. You can look forward to he & I together next week here on the show.

You might be one of the listeners that’s been here every single week since 2014 - just like I’ve been here for you.

A new podcast is published every Monday. If you want more our DQYD E-mail Letter is published and sent about weekly, that’s typically been on Thursdays lately. Then, there are many new videos published each month over on our Get Rich Education YouTube Channel. Those are the main three places that you can find us.

Until next week, if you enjoy listening, I really appreciate if you would told a friend about the Get Rich Education Podcast.

Until then, I’m your host, KW. Don’t Quit Your Daydream!

Direct download: GREepisode503_b.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 4:00am EST

Mon, 20 May 2024

You can get financially free twice as fast with the BRRRR Strategy instead of buy-and-hold.

But it’s less passive.

BRRRR stands for: Buy, Rehabilitate, Rent, Refinance, and Repeat.

You can get an infinite return this way, by generating yield with none of your own money left in the deal.

Learn how to obtain BRRRR financing from Caeli Ridge, President of Ridge Lending Group.

The LTVs are 70%, 75%, or 80% depending on the property and financing type.

RidgeLendingGroup.com specializes in helping investors buy income property.

Resources mentioned:

For access to properties or free help with a

GRE Investment Coach, start here:

Get mortgage loans for investment property:

RidgeLendingGroup.com or call 855-74-RIDGE

or e-mail: info@RidgeLendingGroup.com

Invest with Freedom Family Investments.

You get paid first: Text FAMILY to 66866

For advertising inquiries, visit:

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501: Home Prices Aren't Really Up. Here's Why.

Complete episode transcript:

Keith Weinhold (00:00:00) - Welcome to GRE. I'm your host, Keith Weinhold. The real estate BRRRR strategy is a shortcut to growing your wealth. But it's less passive than buy and hold with a property manager. Learn what is the Burr strategy and then about some of its pros and cons, mistakes you must avoid and financing programs available, and how it can generate infinite returns for you today and get rich. Education.

Robert Syslo (00:00:28) - Since 2014, the powerful get Rich education podcast has created more passive income for people than nearly any other show in the world. This show teaches you how to earn strong returns from passive real estate, investing in the best markets without losing your time being a flipper or landlord. Show host Keith Reinhold writes for both Forbes and Rich Dad Advisors, and delivers a new show every week. Since 2014, there's been millions of listeners downloads and 188 world nations. He has A-list show guests include top selling personal finance author Robert Kiyosaki. Get Rich education can be heard on every podcast platform, plus it has its own dedicated Apple and Android listener.

Robert Syslo (00:01:02) - Phone apps build wealth on the go with the get Rich education podcast. Sign up now for the get Rich education podcast or visit get Rich education.com.

Corey Coates (00:01:13) - You're listening to the show that has created more financial freedom than nearly any show in the world. This is get rich education.

Keith Weinhold (00:01:30) - Welcome from Bridgeport, Connecticut, to Bridgeport, Texas, and across 188 nations worldwide. I'm Keith Weinhold, and you're listening to get Rich education. Let's Do Good in the world and abolish the term slumlord profiting at the same time by providing housing to others. It's clean, safe, affordable and functional. This is where, you know, on this show, we often tell you how to become financially free through real estate investing in the next 5 to 10 years without having to be a landlord or flipper. We're going to talk about how to shorten that timeline in a moment, but I have a couple resources to share with you. First, one, late breaking development at GRI marketplace that's been popular is in Florida with new builds, brand new construction for plex's duplexes and single family rentals with points paid a 4.25% mortgage rate.

Keith Weinhold (00:02:28) - Yes, 4.25%. You can pay fewer points and still get a 4.75% rate. Also, some good low interest rate deals for foreign nationals. Go ahead and connect with a great investment coach and learn about those at great marketplace.com. For a 4.25% mortgage rate. If you're a Spanish speaker or have Spanish speaking friends, check out get Rich education.com/espanol to see my free video course on how real estate pays five ways in Spanish. It's pretty interesting how our team here has applied AI to show me speak it in Spanish. Again, you can see that at get Rich education. Com slash espanol. Now the BR real estate investing strategy is popular because it can reduce your out-of-pocket expense for property substantially. Let's break it down here. That is the b are are are are. There are four hours after the B which stands for the first B is buy. You buy a distressed property that needs to be fixed up. Then the R's stand for rehab, then rent, then refinance at that higher value, then repeat. More of you have been buying BR property through GRE marketplace.

Keith Weinhold (00:03:52) - Yes, we help you find not just buy and hold properties here, but properties optimized for the BR as well. There are properties that need some work and they are not turnkey, not ready to go with little or no money. In less than three years, you can have a portfolio of 10 to 20 properties with the BR strategy. That's a shortcut, but that does take some work. It's less passive. You're buying distressed property that needs to be fixed up, and you have to be sure that the contractor is getting the work done on time, on budget, and of adequate quality standards. And vetting contractors and dealing with contractors is not easy. I'm going to have a few tips to help you deal with that today, but if you get it dialed in, BR lets you pursue an infinite return strategy where you buy property at a low price, renovated, get it rented, and then refinance it at the higher value. And at times you can get all of your invested cash out on that refinance.

Keith Weinhold (00:05:04) - Well, because a return on investment formula is simply your dollars returned divided by the cash that you have invested in the deal. Well, therefore, if you have no money left in the deal anymore, your return is infinite. Listen carefully. If our guest doesn't do it, then what I'll do is introduce an example here in our conversation for you to get you to help understand the BR. And if this is new to you, this will stretch your thinking somewhat. And then after our break, I'm going to come back and we'll discuss more about any changes to conventional loans for buy and hold investment property. And there's one place that's created more financial freedom through real estate than any other lender in the entire nation. It's time for a big welcome back to their leader, Charlie Rich.

Caeli Ridge (00:06:02) - Hey, Keith. Thank you for having me. It's always a pleasure to be here.

Keith Weinhold (00:06:05) - Well, you know who she is by now. She leads Ridge Lending Group. They're an investor centric lender, and she does such a good, concise job of explaining what real estate investors need to know in optimizing your loan positions.

Keith Weinhold (00:06:18) - And that's why she's here with us again. And, Charlie, rather than just learn about conventional buy and hold loans or refinance loans like we've covered in the past, let's talk about lending for the BR real estate investing method. BR is a method for buying distressed property at a discount. So not turnkey, not fixed up property. Here in BR stands for buy, rehab, rent, refinance and repeat. Now for these loans. Is the lender looking more I guess Charlie maybe we should start with are they looking at the property strength or more at the borrower strength for BR loans?

Caeli Ridge (00:06:54) - Well, first of all, I would say that BR is one of my favorite strategies for real estate investors, especially if they're getting into diversifying their portfolio. I think BR is a very lucrative way to achieve the returns that people are after, not only in appreciation but also in cash flow. You can get some really great leverage in these ROI and ends up being better if you find the right properties. So I'm a big fan of the BR, but to your question, Keith, it depends on what product they're going to elicit for the end loan, for that refinance loan, if we're talking about a conventional loan, Fannie, Freddie and the qualifications are still about the individual and their debt to income ratios, etc. if we're going to put this on a debt service coverage ratio, which it can apply to both, or can, I mean, the strategy does not obligate them to one or the other.

Caeli Ridge (00:07:39) - So we can go conventional where it's still going to be about the individual. Or we can look at more of a debt service coverage ratio, where it's about the income of the property in relation to the mortgage payment.

Keith Weinhold (00:07:48) - And before we go on, of course, identifying a deal is a key here in the BR strategy. Is there any guidance you'd give with identification of that property. Because you might know more from the lender perspective on what's going to be lendable.

Caeli Ridge (00:08:03) - Well, as long as it's habitable, we can lend on it. I would say that you really want to pay close attention to a couple of things. From a lender's perspective, the ARV, right? The after rehab after repair value is the linchpin to all of this. And if you're out there getting your comps from whatever sources, the agent or Zillow or Redfin or whatever it is, the more data that you can gather, the better. But just keep in mind that the ones and zeros that you're probably gaining access to don't necessarily have the components that show all the rehab work that you're putting into it.

Caeli Ridge (00:08:34) - So if you're getting a value of a property like kind property in the area or vicinity that the property is located, it's not always going to attest to what extras you put in, whether it be the hardwoods or square footage or whatever it may be. Just keep in mind that you may not be on point there, and real estate agents, I would want you to have or be working with one that really understands the BR method, aka investor models, to make sure that you don't get caught in a scenario where you're expecting a value of x that comes in at Y, that can be very devastating to the BR methodology, especially for new investors.

Keith Weinhold (00:09:09) - It was more about coming up with the ARV because with a conventional loan on a conforming property, that value that you're lending against is typically the appraisal.

Caeli Ridge (00:09:21) - Correct. And the appraisal is going to take into consideration those rehab pieces. But it's not dollar for dollar. And while I don't know that we want to go down the appraisal rabbit hole, I will tell you that if you've got $50,000 of rehab into the property, that doesn't necessarily mean you're going to get a full 50,000 in extra value.

Caeli Ridge (00:09:38) - A lot of it has to do with what you paid for it. Like Keith, you said at the top of the podcast here, distressed property. A lot of times when people are getting into BR, they're finding under market value property to begin with, that's already worth more. They're putting in some real value adds, maybe cosmetic, maybe a little bit more, and then expecting quite a bit more in value. So there's definitely a science to it. But just make sure that for all intents and purposes, you're gathering as much data as you can. And the agent, if you're using a real estate agent to help with MLS listings, etc., that they have some basis of background within this, this particular philosophy.

Keith Weinhold (00:10:12) - Okay, so we are projecting an RV in after repair value here, and then we need to lend against a percentage of a certain value. So clearly since in this case the property is distressed, well then if the property is the lender's collateral and that collateral is a little, you know, why don't we call it damaged, if you will? Well, then I'm going to speculate that is that lender probably not going to give you as favorable loan terms as they would on a conforming property.

Keith Weinhold (00:10:39) - So tell us more about how those bur loan terms look.

Caeli Ridge (00:10:42) - So you might be surprised. Again, as long as the property is habitable the LTV is going to be the same. The value of the property. It is probably what you're going to notice more than what the lending side is going to allow for in the loan to value. So on a single family residence, if it's habitable, we're going to give the individual up to 75% of that ARV. Now, I don't know if we're ready to go down this road. I think we should talk about it at some point. The ARV and how we want to maximize and not leave any money on the table. We want to discuss the purchase price and the acquisition. I think we'll come to that. But to answer your question, habitable 75% single family or 70% on a 2 to 4 unit is going to be the maximum loan to value using the appraisal. When we talk about a cash out refinance of an investment property, which may be different if we get into a rate and term refinance as a purpose of Bur, which will probably touch on as well.

Keith Weinhold (00:11:36) - What I think for the listener benefit here, maybe it's good to jump into an example if you want to apply some real numbers here to a bird deal, and then let's walk through that with the financing and more.

Caeli Ridge (00:11:48) - Let's start with cash out, because it is different than a rate and term. So cash out simply to clarify means that the individual is going to get cash in hand. We are not simply paying off an existing hard money loan. That is a rate and term refinance. So we want to start with cash out where the cash to acquire the property was the individual sourced and seasoned funds. And let's assume that the scenario looks like this. They paid $100,000 for the property. And then there's $50,000 in renovation with the expectation. Or let's just say that we get an appraisal for 200,000. So at 200,000 and it's a single family residence, 75% of that is 150,000. Okay. So that pretty much covers their total acquisition costs. But then we've got a recommendation.

Keith Weinhold (00:12:28) - Cost is quite.

Caeli Ridge (00:12:29) - Covered. But we have to account for closing costs tax and insurance.

Caeli Ridge (00:12:31) - Let's just make it around ten grand. So the individual is going to end up with 140,000 from their 150 total acquisition cost. If you divide those two numbers, you're probably going to be at what? So 140 divided by 150,000. Yeah, 93% overall leverage. You've got ten grand skin in the game. And when you look at it from that perspective, 93% over all loan to value or leverage of this property is very, very high. If you can get a deal to work like that, you're doing very well.

Keith Weinhold (00:12:59) - And you can see why people like this and why people are attracted to this. So go ahead and tell us more about this. Because really, when we talk about lending for a bigger property, we're probably talking about two different loans, right? We're talking about the purchase price upfront and then the refinancing later on.

Caeli Ridge (00:13:17) - Right. So let's going back to my example. If you paid cash for the property, if that 150,000 was your sourced in season funds. And if you want Keith tell me later and I'll go into what source and season it is.

Caeli Ridge (00:13:28) - But you have 150,000 in on this property. The key to getting up to the maximum of 150 back. Or in our example, you ended up with 140 back because we accounted for ten grand. And in closing, cost is to make sure this is wildly important. And a lot of people get this wrong the first time they go down the Burr road. Make sure both the purchase price and the acquisition costs are listed on your final CD, aka Closing Disclosure. A closing disclosure comes to you at closing, where it's a document, a form that illustrates all of the line item pluses and minuses of the buyer and the seller and what everybody netted at the end. The CD must have the total 150 listed on there, and just one number is fine. It can be broken up into two numbers, whatever. But as long as both numbers are listed on the CD, you as the borrower, our client, her guidelines are eligible to get up to that much back. So the guideline states that the individual cash in hand cannot exceed a maximum of what the total acquisition costs listed on that CD is.

Caeli Ridge (00:14:28) - So what the common mistake is, let's just keep using our 100,000 purchase in our $50,000 renovation. The common mistake that people make is, is that they pay the 100,000, the seller is made whole. And then the day after closing, they are officially now the owner of this property. They send the 50,000 out to the contractor. Seems obvious, right? Well, in doing it that way, you've left 50,000 on the table and now you're going to have to wait 12 months per new guideline to have 12 months of ownership, seasoned ownership for Fannie Freddie to get the total 150. So make sure that the total 150 is on that CD. And the way to do this, just one more little detail. You want to be working with an escrow company that provides something called an escrow hold back. Because a lot of times when I give this advice, people say, well, I don't really want to release $50,000 to the contractor before they even started any of the work, right? That makes sense to me.

Caeli Ridge (00:15:16) - And most escrow companies do this in escrow. Hold back says that the hundred grand goes to the seller. The 50,000 is earmarked for the general contract, you've gotten your bids, etc., but the escrow company will then deliver the 50,000 upon your approval as draws to the contractor as work is being completed. And that kind of absolves that extra layer of risk. But now you've done the appropriate thing for the financing to get maximize your cash out, and you're not leaving yourself in a weird position to frontload 50 grand before you know they've even started on whatever repairs there are.

Keith Weinhold (00:15:49) - Yes. How much motivation does every contractor have if they've already got their 50 K for 50 K worth of work before they do their work? And it works this way a lot in the contracting world, where progress payments are made intermittently as the contractor performs their work. So tell us more about what we need to know here. Clearly, especially when it comes to the Bir and loans, because you just gave us a great mistake to avoid there.

Caeli Ridge (00:16:13) - Kind of keeping on that theme. And then let's talk about a rate and term refinance. You know, some of the pushback that I'll get when I have these conversations. Well, you get your bids. Okay. We'll start talking about the 50,000 renovation per hour example. And you probably get a low and a high and middle. Maybe you go with the middle. It's been my experience personally and just through conversations that the bid is 50,000. If you don't have the upfront conversation to say, I'm not going to pay a cent over the 50,000 and or you negotiate to say, okay, what is our variance here? Because a lot of times the contractor is not going to be pigeonholed to 50,000. They're going back and say, no, I'm not going to sign anything that says that it will not exceed 50,000. There are costs and things that are out of my control, blah, blah, blah. Then coming up with, okay, fine, 55,000, 50, 2000, whatever that margin might be, including that in there and then having the conversation that says, okay, fine, because you don't want to leave that money on the table.

Caeli Ridge (00:17:03) - So let me take a step back. 50,000 becomes 55,000. And if you didn't have it on the CD, that $5,000 is not eligible to get back. So if you increase the amount that's on that CD, per the conversation with your contractor, make sure one of two things that if it isn't spent, that it's coming back to you and assuming if it is, then everybody is on the same page and it's just going to be part of the expense and part of what you have potential to get back. So just food for thought there. Then moving into the rate and term refinance. Now this is something totally different. This means that you went out and got a hard money lump, some kind of a private bridge loan, which by the way, Ridge does. We have bridge loans that can help fund the purchase and the renovation. We can talk about that if you like. But if you went out and got a hard money loan, this is no longer a cash out refinance unless the value is so high that based on a 75% LTV for cash out, that there's enough money on the table that you don't want to wait the 12 months.

Caeli Ridge (00:18:00) - I'm going to pause on that for a second and just say that the numbers work for a rate and term refinance, where we have an existing loan. Let's say you've got a hard money loan for 150,000. A rate and term refinance lets us go to 80% loan to value on a single family, 75 on a 2 to 4. If you recall a minute ago it was 75 and 70. That's cash out. Refinance rate and term refinance rules when you're not getting any money in hand, were simply paying off existing liens plus closing costs. They increase the LTV allowances. So 75 2 to 480% on a single family residence. So if we can go 80% on the 200,000, what is that one? I can't do mental math, Keith. So 80% of 200,000 is 160. So in that case think about this. So let's just keep going back to our example. You've got 150 into it. We've got 10,000 of closing costs okay. 150 is a hard money loan that we have to pay off. And the 10,000 is what the new refinance closing costs are going to be.

Caeli Ridge (00:19:00) - The value came in at 200,000. 80% of that is 160,000. That's no skin in the game. You have completely covered the hard money loan paid for the closing costs. I mean, you can't get better than that. That's 100% leverage, right? You're not getting cash back. Now let's take that and say that the value came in at 250. And that's a lot of money. In that case, you may want to wait for the 12 months to get that cash back, because you're going to be limited if you use leverage to acquire the property versus your own cash, that's when you're going to have to wait that 12 months. Or if you're cash acquisition, the numbers work out where you'd get an exponentially more amount than what you put into it. You may want to wait there, too. It really just depends on what that RV is going to be. That's why it's the linchpin that'll make you decide whether you're going to wait the 12 months, or if you're ready to rock in in the immediate terms with a rate and term refi.

Caeli Ridge (00:19:53) - No seasoning. If you're not getting cash back, I don't care. We can do it immediately or a cash out refinance. As long as you're not getting more back than what you paid for it. And we can show that the dollars to acquire all in the CD and they came from, you know, seasoning.

Keith Weinhold (00:20:07) - All right. So it's the BR strategy with the cash out refinance and then the burr strategy with the rate and term terms there, if you will. Is there anything else that we need to know about either one of those.

Caeli Ridge (00:20:19) - Really a lot of people always want to say what are the rate differences? And I would say that, you know, overall they're going to be roughly the same when we start talking about those LP's. Again, Keith, low level price adjustments there, pluses and minuses that have to do with risk. A cash out is a higher risk than a rate and term, a rate and term at 80% versus a cash out at 75% might offset that. So relatively speaking, they're probably going to be within an eighth to a quarter percentage point if all the other variables are equal.

Keith Weinhold (00:20:44) - Now, clearly, I think of a hard money loan is something that allows. You to put both the purchase price of a property and the projected rehab cost, and roll those all into the loan at closing. That's what I think of as a hard money loan. Is there any difference between a hard money loan and the other things that you're describing to us?

Caeli Ridge (00:21:04) - Not really. I mean, it's probably a cat of a different name, right? I mean, a hard money loan, a private money loan, a portfolio loan, a bridge loan. I mean, you could use the same thing, depending on the context of the sentence, to mean the same thing, maybe something different. You're probably right in this context. It's going to be the same, I think.

Keith Weinhold (00:21:21) - Well, I want to talk to you more about conventional loans and any mortgage industry trends that have been taking place lately. But before we do, do you have any last thing to tell us about the Burr strategy, where really someone can accumulate maybe 10 or 20 properties in just three years with little or no money, but more work?

Caeli Ridge (00:21:39) - Yeah, a little bit more work.

Caeli Ridge (00:21:40) - I would say get to know your market, have your team. That contractor. Man, I think you alluded to this. I think that that's the piece that most people struggle with is finding the right contractor for one of the things that tends to work well, if you have established a relationship, is kind of getting in with some kind of a JV with the contractor, right? They've got skin in the game. Maybe if your numbers work out, they get a 5% bonus on the end, whatever. Just to kind of not keep them honest but keep them honest, if you know what I mean. So making sure you've got a good contractor that you can trust if you're going to be doing this out of state from where you live, even more so, doubly so you really want to have the right team. And that includes the general contractor, the escrow company, your lender. Everybody's got to kind of be on the same page if you're going to continue to do this as a rinse and repeat.

Caeli Ridge (00:22:23) - And then finally I would say bring it to Ridge. Let's just make sure if you're new to doing this, I want to make sure you're not leaving that money on the table, that we're structuring it appropriately so that we're maximizing the loan to value, we're maximizing your dollar, and that you're not leaving money or leaving money for some period of time longer than what you would have wanted to, because this is a rinse and repeat, right? If you don't do it right the first time, you could be stuck tying up 30 grand for 12 months that you would have otherwise been able to capitalize on. If we looked at it in advance of you pulling a trigger.

Keith Weinhold (00:22:52) - Yeah, that's correct. In fact, that last R in the BR strategy is to repeat it. And yet, to your point about contractors, I like to think about what contractor motivations are and what my motivations are. And in times I have incentivized contractors with giving them a 5% bonus if they finish things ahead of schedule or a 5% penalty if they finish things behind schedule and putting that in the contract as well.

Keith Weinhold (00:23:14) - You're listening to get versus a case. We're talking with Ridge Landing President Charlie Ridge about getting loans for the BR strategy more when we come back. I'm your host, Keith Windhoek. Role. Under this specific expert with income property, you need. Ridge lending Group Nmls 42056. In gray history from beginners to veterans, they provided our listeners with more mortgages than anyone. It's where I get my own loans for single family rentals up to four Plex's. Start your prequalification and chat with President Charlie Ridge personally. They'll even customize a plan tailored to you for growing your portfolio. Start at Ridge Lending group.com Ridge lending group.com. You know, I'll just tell you, for the most passive part of my real estate investing, personally, I put my own dollars with Freedom Family Investments because their funds pay me a stream of regular cash flow in returns, or better than a bank savings account, up to 12%. Their minimums are as low as 25 K. You don't even need to be accredited for some of them. It's all backed by real estate and that kind of love.

Keith Weinhold (00:24:29) - How the tax benefit of doing this can offset capital gains and your W-2 jobs income. And they've always given me exactly their stated return paid on time. So it's steady income, no surprises while I'm sleeping or just doing the things I love. For a little insider tip, I've invested in their power fund to get going on that text family to 66866. Oh, and this isn't a solicitation. If you want to invest where I do, just go ahead and text family to six, 686, six.

Speaker 5 (00:25:06) - This is our Rich dad, Poor dad author Robert Kiyosaki. Listen to get Rich education with Keith Wayne. All scripture data.

Keith Weinhold (00:25:25) - Hey. Welcome back. You're inside. Episode 502 of gray. I'm your host, Keith. Y'know, we're talking with the president of Ridge Lending Group, Charlie Ridge. She talked to us before the break about her financing strategies and the things that you need to keep in mind in order to optimize your returns there. It's only now back here on the conventional side, we talk more about conforming loans for properties that are already fixed up.

Keith Weinhold (00:25:48) - Or maybe people call those turnkey. What about some of those hurdles that investors often have in there? For example, I know that the DTI one exceeding their debt to income ratio threshold when they try to qualify is sometimes a problem. So can you talk to us about some strategies with that? For example, sometimes a person might have a $500 a month car payment, but they only have four or more payments to make for their $2,000 principal balance. And it just makes more sense to pay that off. And then that drops off the DTI calculation. Are there any other thoughts you have with regard to that?

Caeli Ridge (00:26:18) - There's so many in this. I mean, we probably have our own episode for all different ways on debt to income ratio and to move that needle. Just to go back to your example, just FYI, if the car loan is financed, not leased, and there are ten months or left reporting on the credit report automatically per guideline we had, we can exclude that if it was at least with ten months or less, we have to keep it in the ratio.

Caeli Ridge (00:26:39) - But if it's a finance car, ten months are left are showing on the report. It's automatically reduced from the liability section of DTI. The other things that we're to look at just obvious things. Can we gross up any kind of income. Right. Are there bonuses or commissions or Social Security or veterans benefits or whatever that allow us to gross those up, making sure that we've got all of the applicable income that they gather? Sometimes people will forget to say, oh, I get this. You know, child support or alimony or whatever it may be that I didn't think to disclose. We want to make sure that we have that in there. And then we talk about liabilities we want to look at here's kind of a good one. Student loans let's say that either cosigned or you have your own student loans. Fannie and Freddie have different. And maybe they're in deferment. Okay. So when we pull the credit it shows zero as the monthly payment. While Fannie and Freddie have different rules about what we have to hit them for.

Caeli Ridge (00:27:25) - And I could be getting these backwards, but I think that Fannie is 1% of the outstanding balance, whereas Freddie is a half a percent. So depending on some other variables, we may elect to say, okay, DTI is really tight, we're going to take this and make this one of Freddie, assuming that they fit all the other boxes so that we're only having to hit them for that half a percent. Otherwise we look at maybe paying off revolving debt, get those payments down if they're small enough, maybe there's a $3,000 balance that has a $300 payment that's really screwing things up, and they can afford to pay that off. So certainly we can look at those kinds of things, adding in a co-borrower, putting more money down, buying the interest rate down, maybe finding slightly cheaper insurance, right. At least for the purpose of the loan. And then if you wanted to get higher insurance or lower deductibles or higher deductibles later, you could certainly do that. So there's so many different variables that we can look at to really it's not a one size fits all.

Caeli Ridge (00:28:13) - And DTI is kind of a slippery slope. And there's lots of different ways in which we can get that down into check. And if it doesn't happen today, we can help them plant the seeds for what to do tomorrow and making sure that we get them there.

Keith Weinhold (00:28:24) - Wow, that was fantastic. I hope you, the listener, are listening closely because Charlie just gave so much packed, nutrient dense information about what you can do with your DTI. And for starters, I think a lot of people think about reducing their debt to improve their DTI. But is all your income being credited as well? Hopefully you caught that part which said that. But when it does come to reducing the debt portion, of course student loans have very much been in the news with all these plans for forgiveness. Is that impacting DTI substantially?

Caeli Ridge (00:28:53) - If they had the right documentation? Sure. Yeah. If they're on there and we have the right documentation that shows that they are forgiven, but they just haven't caught up with the system, then absolutely.

Caeli Ridge (00:29:00) - Otherwise, if they don't have the supporting doc, the letter that says and it's on the credit report, we're going to have to hit them for it, whether there's a payment there or a zero deferred. And then we have to figure out the 5.5 or the 1%. It'll have to be in there. Just depends on what they can deliver in terms of that forgiveness in paper trail.

Keith Weinhold (00:29:18) - You do with mortgages every day in there. That's what you specialize in for investors. Are there any just overall mortgage industry trends that really specifically impact real estate investors that have occurred? Or amid.

Caeli Ridge (00:29:31) - The rates? Everything is going to come back to the rates. As much as I impress upon people, it really shouldn't be about the rate. And I understand the psychology. Listen. But if they're not doing the math, they're really doing themselves and their future investment a disservice. The shelf life, you guys of an investment property mortgage is five years. Whatever the rates are today, you're not going to have that interest rate almost certainly in 5 to 7 years.

Caeli Ridge (00:29:54) - So kind of looking down the forecast of where rates we think they're going to go, the appreciation of the property, harvesting equity, pulling cash out. Keep those things in mind when you fixate on the interest rates. I would say that that's usually what it's top of people's minds. The most recent inflationary data came out. It was hotter than we expected. However, shortly thereafter, if you're watching closely the unemployment rate and the jobs report, I think it offered 175,000 new jobs and the projection was to something. So that's good news. And listen, you guys, you can't have it both ways. We're in a hot economy. I guess it depends on who you're talking to and who you're asking. I understand, but for all intents and purposes we've got inflation is is down. It's not down where the Fed's wanted that 2%. The unemployment rate is very, very low. So in that regard we're doing very well. So interest rates are going to be higher. Unfortunately it balances this way. The worse the economy does the better the interest rates do.

Caeli Ridge (00:30:48) - Finding that equal balance I think is the key. And don't ask me, I'm not going to try and predict how to do that. But do your mouth be prepared for refinancing when it comes. Sitting on the fence is usually not going to be to your advantage if you're waiting for interest rates to come down, and that coupled with house values, come down a little bit too. And you may have played yourself out of the refinance anyway for the purposes that you wanted to pull cash out. So just be educated. Call us. We can kind of walk you through some of that stuff. Interest rates, I think, are going to be higher for longer unless we see some real significant data trends, because there's a lag. And what we get from the Fed's and I think they try to put that in there, but who knows what's going to happen. What are they going to see us again June, July. We'll see what happens. If jobs reports keep being light, then maybe we start to see a little bit more reprieve in the interest rates.

Caeli Ridge (00:31:32) - But we're still we're what, seven and a quarter, seven and a half for investment property I think in most cases. So if that's too high to cash flow, find a short term rental. Find a mid term rental. There's other ways in which to accomplish your variety of variables. Even in the seven and 7.5% interest rate environment.

Keith Weinhold (00:31:49) - Well, there's so much I can say about the fed and the interest rates, but I think you said something very important earlier that the average shelf life of a mortgage loan product is about five years. It's exceedingly few people. Well, less than 1%. They're making their 360th monthly payment ever at a 30 year fixed rate loan. Charlie, I want to ask you what. Maybe it's becoming sort of known as the Charlie Ridge question. I like to ask you this almost every time that you're on the show, because it gives us a temperature of the market, because you see so many loans and so many appraisals come in there, what percent of appraisals are coming in above value? What percent are coming in on value, and what percent of appraisals are coming in below value?

Caeli Ridge (00:32:26) - We don't see as many low values.

Caeli Ridge (00:32:28) - I think that there was a period of time where that was rampant. It was really frustrating for a lot of people, especially on the Non-owner occupied side. The vast majority are coming in on point, and I think a lot of that has to do with 0809 regulation. Appraisers are kind of scared of their own shadow and overvaluing properties. So I think that they do very everything they can to hit the mark. And I don't see too much over an occasion. We'll see a little bit over. It's more likely to see it over than under these days. I would say, okay, percentages under 10% on the mark 8075 and then over. We'll give it.

Keith Weinhold (00:33:03) - 1515. Okay, a few more over than under, but pretty close to right on value there. You do loans in almost all 50 states. And these are the states where the property is located, not where the borrower lives. Right. So it's every state except a few.

Caeli Ridge (00:33:20) - Right? We're not in North Dakota and we are not in New York.

Caeli Ridge (00:33:22) - Otherwise we are lending in all 48 states where the property is. That is correct.

Keith Weinhold (00:33:27) - Yeah. And you specialize in loans for investors. Like I said earlier, what other loan types do you offer investors and others in there because you do a few primary residence loans too.

Caeli Ridge (00:33:38) - We do lots of primary. I would say, you know, it's 7030 probably. We're very capable, full service direct lender. What that means is we fund on our warehouse line, we underwrite in house, but we don't service these loans. So we bundle them up in mortgage backed securities and we resell them on the secondary market to aggregators. You guys will know this as servicers. Any Mac, Wells Fargo, whoever is going to be the end servicer of the loan. And I've worked really, really hard to create an environment specifically for investors, not exclusively, but largely so that we're not a one size fits all. So I really appreciate the question and being able to articulate to your listeners, we really do everything. It's very uncommon that we don't have a loan product to feed the actual need.

Caeli Ridge (00:34:17) - The one thing that I would say we don't have or don't offer is going to be a lot bear lot loans we don't fund on just bare land, but we can do the Fannie Freddie's bridge loans. So for the fix and flip or fix and hold the BR, we do non QM. This is just non QM is kind of everything outside the Fannie Freddie box. If you can't quite fit into the rigors of Fannie Freddie you're going to be in non QM probably where debt service coverage ratio lives. Bank statement loans live, asset depletion loans live. We have commercial loan products for commercial properties. For residential properties we have. Ground up construction. First line Helocs for relationship clients we have second line Helocs. We had second line for everybody when we pulled back just for relationship clients for reasons that we'll discuss on one on one if anybody's interested in that. What am I forgetting, Keith? You get the point. There's a lot. If you think that you're trying to get financing for residential or commercial properties, please email us and we'll take some information to let you know what we can do.

Keith Weinhold (00:35:10) - Well, yeah, to my point, you provide such a great service in a wide palette of options. It's somewhat easier to describe what you don't do. Yeah. And what you do offer to people. And of course, I've done my own loans in there at Ridge and my own refinancings in there. And yes, I usually end up getting a servicer. That's one of the big banks that you've always heard of over the long term that I make payments to. Where does one get started to get things rolling with Ridge or just to ask some questions.

Caeli Ridge (00:35:36) - Call us 855747434385574. Ridge, you'll get someone immediately. We don't have any call trees. You'll speak to me if I'm available at the time. Our website's got a lot of great information. Ridge lending group.com email info at Ridge Lending group.com. All of those ways will get you on the books with me, if that's what you like. Or assign you to a loan officer in the company. And we look forward to serving you.

Keith Weinhold (00:36:00) - You have given our longtime listeners more good, timely mortgage information than anyone in the history of the show here, and we're all better for it.

Keith Weinhold (00:36:09) - Charlie Ridge, thanks so much for coming back on to the show.

Caeli Ridge (00:36:11) - Thank you Keith.

Keith Weinhold (00:36:18) - Let's review some of what you learned about Bir and their loans today. Once your property is renovated and rented, which are the first and second are the third are. Is refinance for a cash out refinance type? It is a maximum of 75% loan to value on single family and 70% on a 2 to 4 unit, and then for a rate and term refinance, which means when you don't get any money in hand after closing and you're simply paying off existing liens plus closing costs, it's 80% loan to value on single family and 75% on a 2 to 4 unit. And you learn to be sure that both the purchase price and the acquisition cost are listed on your final closing disclosure. You know what I think is interesting with originating mortgage loans today? Overall, it's one question that I've been thinking about, and maybe we'll do a poll on this question. If we do, I'll share the results with you. And that is, do people care more about the mortgage interest rate than the purchase price of the property itself? Sometimes it seems that way to me.

Keith Weinhold (00:37:29) - Now your mortgage rate definitely matters, but not as much as the purchase price. I mean, later months or years down the road. After you purchase a property, you can often renegotiate the mortgage interest rate, like if rates fall, but your purchase price stays fixed, that part never gets renegotiated. And like I mentioned last week, low mortgage rates don't create wealth. Leverage does. And to put a finer point on that, consider that in 1971, the mortgage interest rate was 7.3%. Back there in 1971, if you had waited for interest rates to go down, you wouldn't have purchased a home or an income property until 1993. You would have waited 22 years for rates to go down. And meanwhile the price of real estate quadrupled, and many people expect mortgage rates to stay higher, longer. Whether you're interested in the BR strategy or already renovated income, property or even primary residence loans, I invite you. You can get loans at the same place that I have myself for years. That's it.

Keith Weinhold (00:38:41) - Ridge lending group.com. Until next week. I'm your host, Keith Winfield. Don't quit your day dream.

Speaker 6 (00:38:52) - Nothing on this show should be considered specific, personal or professional advice. Please consult an appropriate tax, legal, real estate, financial or business professional for individualized advice. Opinions of guests are their own. Information is not guaranteed. All investment strategies have the potential for profit or loss. The host is operating on behalf of get Rich education LLC exclusively.

Keith Weinhold (00:39:20) - The preceding program was brought to you by your home for wealth building. Get rich education.com.

Direct download: GREepisode502_.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 4:00am EST

Mon, 13 May 2024

In this episode of the Get Rich Education podcast, host Keith Weinhold explores the current state of home pricing and the housing market.

He examines whether homes are overpriced or underpriced by comparing them to historical values, gold, and bitcoin, and discusses the influence of inflation and financing on affordability.

The episode features insights from Danielle Hale, chief economist at realtor.com, on the challenges for young homebuyers, housing supply issues, and mortgage rate effects.

The conversation also covers the build-to-rent trend, investment strategies, and the importance of increasing housing construction.

Weinhold concludes by offering free coaching for building real estate portfolios.

Resources mentioned:

For access to properties or free help with a

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Get mortgage loans for investment property:

RidgeLendingGroup.com or call 855-74-RIDGE

or e-mail: info@RidgeLendingGroup.com

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500: All You Ever Have is Now—Always

Complete episode transcript:

Welcome to GRE! I’m your host, Keith Weinhold. Home Prices Aren’t Really Up! Brace yourself. A mic drop moment on real estate costs is coming.

It’s an unmasking - a reality check on property prices. Are homes actually still priced too LOW today? How could that POSSIBLY be true at all? On Get Rich Education.

_____________

Welcome to GRE! From Belgrade, Serbia to Belleville, Illinois and across 188 nations worldwide. I’m Keith Weinhold and you’re listening to Episode 501 of Get Rich Education.

We’ll get to “Are homes overpriced or underpriced today?” shortly.

But understand this…

I successfully acquired something at a young age. And you can too. That thing that I successfully got ahold of was not millions of dollars… because I came from average means.

What I intentionally and successfully acquired was millions of dollars in debt.

Yes, obtaining millions in debt from a young age… is what led to me quitting my day job while I was young enough to enjoy it.

You, the longtime listener, COMPLETELY understand and appreciate what I just said. If you’re a newer listener, that sounds unusual or even irresponsible. Well, come along for the ride.

Also, a layperson - or a newer listener - would respond with, “No one talks that way, thinks that way, or does that.” - taking out millions in debt and calling THAT aspirational.

But using that debt as leverage is how you ethically take funds from the big banks - take Chase Bank’s money, take Bank of America’s money, take Wells Fargo’s money - learn how to use it, be a responsible steward of the funds, provide good housing for people and prosper.

That means you get the return on both your down payment - and the entire amount that you borrowed from those banks. That all goes to you. And both your tenants and inflation pay the debt back - not you.

Look, I know one person. I personally know a guy - Greg. Greg makes $80K a year from his day job. Good guy, married guy, one kid.

And his NW increased by $2M just in the COVID run-up. He has a modest salary but his NW is up $2M just since 2020.

First of all, do you think that any of Greg’s co-workers experienced that effect? No, he’s really going down my path. You soon get unrelatable to co-workers and even some of your peers.

Well, what makes it possible for a good family guy - or anybody - to go from a middling salary to obtaining life-changing wealth?

It takes leverage. He borrowed for bank loans. That way, he could acquire 5x as much property than if he paid all cash for his rental properties.

That way, he had 5x as MANY properties… and properties all appreciate at the same rate regardless of how much equity you have in them.

See, if he had paid all cash, he’d only have a $400K capital gain. Not bad, but $2M is life-changing. Thanks to leverage.

Everyday people obtain life-changing wealth this way. It’s so substantial… that it won’t only affect Greg’s life. If he continues on this way, it’ll take care of his children, grandchildren, and great grandchildren.

And you know, maybe this is why, one of the most recurrent guests we’ve had here in the history of this GRE, Ken McElroy, he says:

“The best investment in RE is the one that appreciates the most, not the one that cash flows the most.” That’s Ken McElroy. And now you can see why he says that.

Leveraged appreciation creates wealth the fastest. Cash flow is important and it CAN boost wealth but that happens more slowly. Principal paydown doesn’t create it - it enhances it… and it’s the same with tax benefits.

Deferring your tax on a 1031 means that you can re-leverage a greater amount.

Low interest rates also don’t create wealth. In fact, I bought my first ever income property with a 6⅜% mortgage rate and my second income property with a 7⅝% rate - that second one had interest-only payments.

But I borrowed the maximum amount that I could without OVERleveraging. Overleverage means losing control of the mortgage and operating expenses.

The lesson here is… get the leverage.

And… case in point. Here we go…

Speaking of appreciation, the LATEST Case-Shiller Home Price Index figure came in. The US currently has… 6.4% YOY home price appreciation. Now, their index is only based on 20 cities but that gives you a pretty good idea.

In fact, that is the fastest rate of increase since 2022.

Now, if you’ve let equity build up in your properties to the point that they’re half paid off, you had 2x leverage, meaning the 6.4% appreciation just gave you a 12.8% leveraged return on your skin in the game.

And, of course, if you leveraged with a 20% down payment a year ago, that 6.4% means that you just got a 32% return.

And as we know, these returns I just told you about are from one of just one of FIVE ways that you’re expected to be paid simultaneously.

But yeah, a 6.4% higher is merely a DOLLAR-DENOMINATED price. That’s what that is. Why do I say that carefully?

Well, there are a few reasons that home prices are 6.4% higher - inflation from dollar printing could be why, the value - not price - but some properties have a greater VALUE, distinctly separate from inflation.

What’s the distinction there - how does this happen? What’s one difference between an INFLATED price and a greater value?

Well, say that a local economy is hot because there are more high-paying jobs there now than there were last year - say an influx of medical jobs or AI jobs or chipmaking jobs.

Well, even absent inflation, a property that now has PROXIMITY to better-paying jobs - that’s now a property that’s more desirable.

Someone is more willing to PAY MORE FOR - and simply CAN pay more for. Again - that phenomenon is ABSENT inflation.

What’s another reason that home prices rise - and rose 6.4% YOY in this case?

If better PHYSICAL AMENITIES are in new homes than there used to be - say bigger garages or new communities with pickleball courts, well, people are more willing to pay more for that.

To review, there are three reasons that home prices go higher: inflation, appreciation from value creation - like how the same home is now located closer to more high-paying jobs, and thirdly, better built-in amenities.

All three of those increase dollar-denominated price or value. They all increase the nominal price.

Now, let’s pivot into the fact that “Home Prices Aren’t Really Up”.

I’ve covered this a little before, but I’m going to go deeper today in giving you the most comprehensive look at home prices today - compared to the past - perhaps than you’ve ever had in your life.

Some might say, “C’mon. How can this be? Homes cost, perhaps 40% more than they did just four years ago.”

Well, I’ve got a mic… drop… moment… coming.

- Home Prices Aren’t Really Up.

We need a good measuring stick to see what home prices are doing. So we’ve got to stop pricing homes in dollars for a minute. It's a poor long-term value measure.

Ludicrous inflation means the dollar has lost over 25% of its value just since 2020, and 97% of its value since 1920.

Let’s use a commodity and money that has been valued for five millennia - and its physical properties have not changed one bit in allll that time, and its valued across continents and cultures - that’s 50 centuries of value! That’s gold.

We’ll get to a more modern measure soon. But first, gold is the best one.

Now, I don’t know who to credit, but for a while, there was an image floating around out there that GRE got ahold of.

It showed that 10 kilos of gold would buy you an average home back in 1920… and also, that 10 kilos of gold would still buy you an average home today… total… mic… drop… moment. Wow! Is there any better evidence that home prices are NOT up - but higher prices reflect that the dollar is down?

Actually, yes, there is a little better evidence. We ran the numbers here and learned that - it’s even more astounding than that!

You run how many dollars per ounce gold is worth, that 35ish ounces are in a kilo and you look at home prices then and now and we discovered that - it’s even more of a jaw-dropper…

… because in 1920 - which I’ll just call a century ago - you could buy an average home for 8 kilos of gold and today, you can buy an average home for just 6 kilos of gold.

So if you want to know how much home prices have changed in the last century, they are down 25%.

They’re 25% cheaper today in terms of gold - clearly a more stable value indicator than horrendously diluted dollars are.

And also, GRE made a new image that shows this - 8 kilos for an average home a century ago, 6 today. I sent you that image in our newsletter about ten days ago and that image got shared a LOT of times.

Your first reaction to this whole thing could be: "Wow! That's wild. The dollar really is sooo diluted."

Alright. What about home prices in terms of a popular, nascent asset that only arrived fifteen years ago, bitcoin?

2016: Average home cost $288K, or 664 bitcoins.
2020: Average home cost $329K, or 45 bitcoins.
2024: Average home cost $435K, or 7 bitcoins.

So, eight years ago, a home cost 664 bitcoins and today it costs 7.

That means that home prices are down 25% in terms of gold in the last century.

But they’re down 99% in bitcoin over just the last 8 years.

And the dropped mic keeps reverberating through the stadium.

Today's homes are cheaper in gold and drastically cheaper in bitcoin.

See, it takes real world resources and proof of work to create real estate, gold, and bitcoin. None of these things are required to produce a dollar - none of them. That's why its value is approaching zero.

But let’s go deeper. You need more answers - you are part of a really intelligent audience.

Because you might be thinking: "Wait a second. Some other things have changed too." For real people - everyday people - aren't home prices actually more out of reach than this?

That's because since 1920, home prices have risen faster than incomes. That puts them OUT OF REACH for more people.

Something else has changed. A home's lot size is smaller today too - the land that comes with the property has a smaller area.

Let’s understand too - homes also use some cheaper materials today. For example, heavy, milled raw wood doors - the interior doors - of yesteryear have given way to molded particle board today.

This is beginning to build the case - evidence - that homes SHOULD be cheaper than they are today.

Let’s keep going, because there’s more to consider.

Mortgage rates themselves - just rates in isolation - they don't put homes out of reach at all. The long-term average is 7.7%, per Freddie Mac, on the 30-year FRM. That average goes back to 1971, when they first began tracking them.

Oppositely, you can make the case that U.S. homes should cost even more than they do today.

In many advanced nations, homes are way more pricey. Even next door in Canada, they cost about 20% more than U.S. homes. Canadian salaries are lower than US salaries too - yet their home prices are markedly higher.

On some levels, you're getting more "home" today in the US.

A 1920 home would feel savagely uninhabitable to you if you tried to live in one now.

Here’s what I mean…

In 1920: 1% of homes had electricity and full plumbing.
Today: 99% of homes have electricity and full plumbing.

What I mean then, by savagely uninhabitable, is enjoy walking to the outhouse in the middle of the night when it's 35 degrees.

Then there's size:

1920: The average home had 242 sf per person.
Today: The average home has 721 sf per person.

Because today, family sizes are smaller and homes are way larger too.

Today's amenities would be unthinkable in 1920—walk-in closets, roofs with R38 insulation, double-paned thermal windows, smart thermostats, voice-controlled lighting, quartz countertops, and Kitchen Aid appliances. Maybe even a security system. They’re all things that homes have today.

Gosh, even the fact that you have a garage - a HEATED garage even, finished basement, air conditioner and modern washer-dryer would leave 1920 homeowners dumbstruck with their mouth agape—maybe even flabbergasted. Those old folks from yesteryear wouldn’t believe all that you get with a home today.

Yet that 1920 home would have cost you more in gold, than today’s more sizable homes with all their plush amenities.

Now, when it comes to - though home prices aren’t up, are they more “out of reach” for the average American?” Over the past five years, they ARE - because home prices have now risen faster than incomes over THAT stretch.

But another BIG reason that homes are SUBSTANTIALLY more affordable today than they were in 1920 is… financing terms.

Today, you can make a down payment for between 3% and 20% on a home. Do you know what loan terms were like in 1920? You had to make a 50% down payment and then had to pay off your mortgage in 5 years.

Can you IMAGINE if that were the case today? How many people could put 50% down on a home today and then pay off the balance within 5 years. Virtually nobody. That’s why homes are more within one’s grasp today.

Overall, you can see that there are a lot of countervailing factors here… tempering that it took 8 kilos of gold to buy a home a century ago, and it just takes 6 kilos today.

The bottom line here is that, long-term, real home prices aren't up. Dollars are down because they've been printed like crazy.

From today, nominal home prices could keep rising for years.

Dustin on social had a funny comment about this - “How many baconators from Wendy’s would it take to buy a home today?” Ha!

I don’t know. I guess that’s a hamburger - I don’t go to Wendy’s. Maybe then, a home costs 60,000 baconators today.

Coming up straight ahead - what will happen first - a $750K median-price home, $100K bitcoin, or $5K gold.

Also, what’s perhaps the biggest trend in real estate investing that not enough people are talking about - and how you can make money from it… and more… all next - I’m KW. You’re listening to Get Rich Education.

______________

Welcome back, to Get Rich Education. I’m your host, Keith Weinhold.

On our latest GRE Social Media Poll, we ran this question.

What will happen first?

The median home value hits $750K.

Bitcoin hits a $100K price. Or…

Gold hits $5K.

I’ll give you the result, but what do you think? Again, which one of these three things will happen first?

The median home value hits $750K.

Bitcoin to $100K. Or…

Gold hits $5K.

The results across both LI and IG were pretty similar - sometimes you get differences there, as LI is a more professional audience.

One voter in the poll also commented - it’s syndication attorney Mauricio Rauld, who we’ve had here on the show before.

Mauricio said: I think assuming Bitcoin doesn't collapse, it probably makes a run to $100K in the next few years (who knows, could be next few months). But with the median home, at 10% a year, it would take 6 years to hit $750K so that is a decade away. That’s his thought - sounds reasonable.

The poll RESULT is:

Bitcoin will hit $100K first. That was most likely, with 57% of you answering that. That makes sense since its volatile and close to striking distance.

The median home value will hit $750K finished 2nd. 26% of you said that.

And gold up to a $5K price got just 17% of the vote. That makes sense since gold prices would have to about double from here.

You can always join along in the conversation and polls. We are really easy to find - because on virtually every social platform - Facebook, Instagram, LI, YouTube - we ARE: “Get Rich Education”.

Over on the Get Rich Education YouTube Channel, I recently covered how the Fed is overseeing a “Tug of War” between inflation and a recession. They don’t want the game to end. The Fed is trying to keep the game going.

They don’t want participants on either side falling into a pit in the middle of the Tug of War game between inflation and a recession. They don’t want either side to win. If one side wins, the Fed loses.

This “Tug of War” game is really a great way to understand how the Fed works, how they control your money, and what their motivations are. A video about that is on our YouTube channel - where you get the visual of the Tug of War game between inflation and a recession.

That’s just one example of how that content is often different from what you’re hearing now. Get more… on our YouTube Channel… called “Get Rich Education”.

The homeownership rate just fell again a little, quarter-over-quarter, increasing the number of renters and rental demand, which I expect will only continue. From CNBC, Realtor.com’s Chief Economist Danielle Hale tells us more. Let’s listen in. It’s about why the housing market is pretty dire for young Americans, then I’ll be right back with some key commentary on this.

Yeah, there in Economist Danielle Hale’s interview - if mortgage rates go higher, inventory pulls back and we tend to see modest HPA. Most agree that if mortgage rates go lower, we’ll see RAPID HPA.

She also just keeps exposing what we all know. “We need to build more housing”.

A brand-new home constructed with a renter in mind, sold to an investor, is known as build-to-rent housing. You’ll see it abbreviated BTR. It's usually single-family.

Some abbreviate it B2R. These must be the same people that say H2O instead of water.

It's become massively popular.

Despite an overall housing shortage, last year, a record 27,495 BTR homes were completed.

That's up 75% from the prior year and up an astounding 307% since pre-pandemic deliveries back in 2019.

So what's driving the build-to-rent trend?

Locked into low mortgage rates, existing homeowners won't sell. So, instead, new inventory must be constructed.
More overall housing demand than supply.
Wannabe first-time homebuyers cannot afford homes today. Renting a BTR is next best. National BTR occupancy is over 96%.

BTR operates similarly to apartment buildings under property management, yet offer a single-family living experience.

Some of these communities have: leasing offices, pools, and fitness centers.

The homes themselves often have: luxurious modern finishes, garages, and fenced backyards.

What's in it for investors? How do you make money with BTRs?

5% mortgage rates* (I’ll get back to that in a minute)
A long-term ownership focus, generating revenue over time rather than immediately
Tenants have a house-like feel. Expect 3+ years avg. tenancy duration.
Mgmt. fees are low because all houses are the same and all in the same area too
BTR purchase prices are HIGHER than resale property. You will pay more.
Expect better appreciation than resale property
The rent range is often $1,500 to $3,500
You can expect low maintenance. It's new.
Builder home warranty

So there are a ton of factors that give build-to-rent investor appeal.

Really, 5% mortgage rates? Yes. Here at GRE, we can introduce you to some BTR homebuilders that will buy down your rate for you. One is lowering it to 4.75%.

I encourage you to get that incentive now, because when mortgage rates fall substantially, I don’t expect these national and regional homebuilders to keep giving you the rate buydown.

Sorry J-Pow. This kinda makes your next Fed rate decision… seem pretty irrelevant.

It's a great rental model to pursue and an amazing time to do it with the rate buydowns. I wish BTR would have existed when I began as an investor.

You really didn’t start hearing about BTR at all until about ten years ago.

Now, I appear as a guest on other business and investing shows. Quite a few times, the host asks me where the REI opp is today.

The answer that I’ve been giving is that it’s with build-to-rent properties and these rate buydowns.

An income-producing asset is like your employee that’s working for you—but without the personality problems. The property is also working for you 24/7.

Besides just helping you find the best BTR deals today, we can help set up an entire real estate investment portfolio plan for you.

-We can help build an income-producing RE portfolio for you with our free coaching. Truly free.

Now, if you’re new here, you might think that we’re trying to sell you something - and we aren’t.

The way it works elsewhere is that some people get attracted to the free thing and then once you’re on the phone or Zoom or free live, in-person event, they’re going to try to sell you their better PAID coaching or some online course for a fee.

We don’t even sell coaching or sell a course. This is free no-strings, no upsell, no catch coaching.

OK, it’s sort of the opposite of your auto dealer calling you about your extended warranty - an overpriced item that you don’t want. Ha! If you want to buy something from GRE, you can’t because we don’t even have anything to sell you. We are here to help!

Also, I have no problem with companies selling paid courses or paid coaching - not at all. Some courses are worth paying for. It’s just not what we do or have EVER done here.

But see, buying real estate that you own directly is still not as simple as just finding a keyboard and pressing: Ctrl, alt, Deal.

So that’s why our Investment Coaches help you learn your goals, and navigate the process. Then you’ll want to keep in touch with your coach because the best deals are often changing.

For example, you might think that you want to buy income property in, just say, Alabama, because its prices haven’t run up as much as they have in Florida.

But we keep regular lines of communication open with build-to-rent homebuilders nationwide… and say there’s a new community, in, Florida, where the real deals are going to be for the next few months…

…and though you still like Alabama, you like how Florida is growing faster so you end up going there.

Or there’s better cash flow with some BRRRR strategy properties in say, Ohio, that we have that your coach informs you about.

So, I encourage you. Get & maintain a line of communication with your GRE Investment Coach.

To review what you learned today:

Leverage is THE most powerful wealth creator.

You can make the case that homes are NOT overpriced today. Home prices aren’t up; the dollar is down.

No one knows the future. But there is ample room for more home price growth.

Build-to-Rent property keeps increasing in popularity… and investors can get mortgage rates on them as low as about 5%.

To contact an investment coach, it’s free, start at GREmarketplace.com.

Until next week, I’m your host, KW. DQYD!

Direct download: GREepisode501_c.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 4:00am EST

Mon, 6 May 2024

Become a time billionaire.

In this episode of the Get Rich Education podcast, host Keith Weinhold explores the significance of living an extraordinary life, emphasizing the importance of time management and the value of time.

You are here today, gone tomorrow.

Gain new perspective on life and death.

The show promotes strategies for achieving financial freedom through real estate investing.

A hypothetical scenario examines the potential impact of eternal life on Earth's resources, prompting listeners to consider the implications of unlimited population growth.

The episode offers a blend of motivational content and practical wealth-building advice, with a side of philosophical musing on the nature of time and life's finitude.

We listen in to Neil deGrasse Tyson’s “Life and Death: A Cosmic Perspective”.

Resources mentioned:

For access to properties or free help with a

GRE Investment Coach, start here:

Get mortgage loans for investment property:

RidgeLendingGroup.com or call 855-74-RIDGE

or e-mail: info@RidgeLendingGroup.com

Invest with Freedom Family Investments.

You get paid first: Text FAMILY to 66866

For advertising inquiries, visit:

Will you please leave a review for the show? I’d be grateful. Search “how to leave an Apple Podcasts review”

Top Properties & Providers:

GRE Free Investment Coaching:

Best Financial Education:

Get our wealth-building newsletter free—

text ‘GRE’ to 66866

Our YouTube Channel:

Follow us on Instagram:

Keith’s personal Instagram:

499: How They Revolutionized Real Estate - Behind the Scenes of “The Memphis Miracle”

Complete episode transcript:

Welcome to GRE! I’m your host, Keith Weinhold. You need to become financially-free so that you have… time to be present and live in the “now”.

You are here today and gone tomorrow. There’s not much time to leave your dent in the universe. All that you ever have is now - and that’s how it will always be. Today, on Episode 500 of Get Rich Education.

Welcome in… to Get Rich Education. I’m your host, Keith Weinhold.

At times, people tell me something like: “Look at what you’re doing. You live an extraordinary life.”

Now, I might reply to that person with something like - “Thanks. I appreciate it. I like to get out and see the world.”

But do you know what’s really going on inside my head when someone tells me that I live an extraordinary life?

I’m really thinking, “Well, of course, I do. Don’t you? You design your life: So why would you choose anything… else or anything… less… than an extraordinary life?”

Esp. in this world of abundance that we all live in. That’s why you have zero reason to live any life that’s LESS than extraordinary - if that’s what you want.”

Investing for income now is a tool for freedom.

When you're no longer trading your time chiefly for dollars, that's when you can stop living a disembodied existence - when you’re living such that your mind and your body are in two different places.

Begin to own your time and truly be yourself.

You need time.

And you don’t have much time. That’s why, in my experience, it's better to err on the side of being too early over being too late.

Are you truly living… or are you only existing in space and time? I think that deep down… you know. Ask yourself. You already know the answer.

Remember, Episode 1 of this very show is called: “Your Abundance Mindset.”

But if you’re thinking in LIMITING ways, here’s the good news - the really good news for you.

You don’t have to believe everything that you think.

The good news is that… you were born rich. You were born with an abundance of choices. Society stifled that.

You don’t have to believe… everything that you think.

Since there's never a "perfect time" to build financial freedom, your conception that it's too early is often just your fear.

As long as you've got a few touchpoints, once you dive in, you'll figure it out.

Old people tend to regret the things they didn't do, or didn't do earlier—not the things they did.

The best reason for becoming financially-free is so that you can buy time and finally start to be yourself.

If you don’t want to do it for yourself, do it for someone you love… because there's someone in this world that needs you to be... you.

Since all that you’ll ever have is “now”, you need residual income to buy time so that you can spend more of your life present in the “now”.

Now, if you were to ask yourself, what made the most successful leaders in the world successful, was it the capital they had, their technology, the people they knew, or their mindset? Which one of those things was it?

It’s their mindset.

See, because if you took away the capital, technology, or friendships from Jeff Bezos or Steve Jobs or Mahatma Ghandi or MLK - whoever you want to use as your leader.

If you took away those elements but they retained their mindset, they would most likely go on to regain everything they’ve got.

That’s why you must deeply explore and consider, what mindset do you have, where did you get your mindset, and what mindset do you need for the decades ahead?

Did you get it from… your parents? If so, I’m sorry to say, that’s usually a red flag… and that’s where most of us get our mindset from.

But most people never learn differently.

Realize this - and this is a little hard to say. But the truth is hard.

Your parents don’t want your success. Isn’t that ironic? Your very own parents don’t want your success; they want your safety.

They want you to have a stable, safe, say, accounting job, in a cubicle that only gives you two weeks of vacation a year - because it’s KNOWN and average.

A ship in harbor is safe; but that’s not why ships are built. Some safety is OK. But you weren’t built to live a life CENTERED on safety either.

That’s not even approaching living your dreams or doing anything ‘extraordinary’.

Most people aren’t living their dreams. They’re living their fears.

When your parents had you at birth - in the hospital delivery room - they’d be thrilled to know that you’d grow up to live your DREAMS. But on the day-to-day, they’ve got you living your fears.

Once your parents got “newborn you” home from the hospital, all the way up to adulthood, an overly fragile safety mindset often becomes pervasive… and it stifles dreams.

If you don’t take a chance, you don’t have a chance. Take the risk or lose the chance.

Don’t live below your means; grow your means. It’s in your genes… though that probably wasn’t part of the mindset of your formative years.

I love my parents. They cultivated the right environment for me. But you’ll often find an overabundance of safety from yours - especially from your mother.

Eckhart Tolle said: “Most humans are never fully present in the now, because unconsciously they believe that the next moment must be more important than this one. But then you miss your whole life, which is never not now. That’s Tolle.

Alright. But once you’ve made time, what’s next? It’s how you arrange your priorities.

We think it’s about time management - and it STARTS THERE.

True achievers in life make large blocks of uninterrupted time - notifications off, phone one room away.

But more specifically, it’s about your priority management.

For me, I know that I’m going to be living in this same body 50 years from today - just like you will inside yours, so I make FITNESS a priority in life - often at the expense of investing & business opportunity.

That’s my take - it doesn’t have to be your take. That’s an example of priority management.

First, you’ve got to play a game worth winning.

It’s been said that one question to establish focus is, ask yourself:

Are you hunting antelope or field mice?

This… idea is simple (but supremely powerful):

A lion is capable of hunting field mice, but the prize wouldn’t be sufficient reward for the energy required to do so.

Instead, the lion must focus on the antelope, which does require considerable energy to hunt, but provide a sufficient reward.

In whatever you are pursuing, are you hunting antelope or field mice? Are you focusing on the big, weighty, important tasks that will provide sufficient reward for your energy?

Or are you burning calories chasing the tiny wins that won't move the needle?

Ask yourself this question from time and time and use your answer to reset as necessary.

Always hunt antelope!

When it comes to priority management…

… you’ve got to make time for yourself and create better “nows” for yourself beyond the mandatory loads that you’re already encumbered with.

Because you’ll still have meal planning, grocery shopping, doctor’s appointments, housekeeping, scheduling, meeting, driving…

There’s not much leftover discretionary time left over to make you the you that you need to be - whether you’re trying to be the best equestrian rider that you can be because you connect with horses…

…you’re trying to be the greatest PARENT ever, cleaning up a beloved local creek, coaching your kid’s sports team… or maybe you’ll move heaven & earth to write that book that you just KNOW that you have inside of you. Get it out there!

But instead, people rationalize away their low quality of life.

If you’re working for the weekend, examine your M-F. You’re not living in the “now”.

If you call Wednesday “hump day”, you’re not living in the now.

The good guys are BRAVE enough to risk investment, commitment, marriage, being vulnerable to family members, and all those things that make the non-doers and bad guys envious. Be brave enough to study and then risk boldly.

This is sad. You’ve probably heard of stats like this before - a Pew survey from last year found that 46% of US workers who receive paid time off from their employer take less time than they’re offered. Almost half!

People rationalize away their low quality of life - actually defending living a small, scared, too-safe life.

If you need a push to fire up Google Flights, consider that you will be happier because of it.

That’s what the science says: researchers from the Netherlands found that the biggest boost in happiness around vacations came from the simple act of planning one. Then you get to anticipate it.

How important is it to build a residual income rather than work more hours? Is working more and working late the answer?

Understand… that twenty years from now, the only people who’ll remember if you worked late are your kids.

Instead, become a time billionaire. Let’s lean into this and look at what some others say.

Graham Duncan proposed the concept of the Time Billionaire. If you’ve got a billion seconds worth of wealth, that’s 31 years. He said that:

"A million seconds is 11 days. A billion seconds is 31 YEARS… I feel like in our culture, we’re almost obsessed, as a culture, with money.

And we deify dollar billionaires in a way...And I was thinking of time billionaires that when I see, sometimes, 20-year-olds—the thought I had was they probably have two billion seconds left.

But they aren’t relating to themselves as time billionaires."

That’s what Graham Duncan said.

The central point here… is that TIME is our most precious asset.

No one ever posts pictures of napping on the sofa on social media. But if you’re a time billionaire - you might consider that an ostentatious display of time wealth. Ha!

When you're young, you are RICH with time. At age 20, you probably have about two billion seconds left (assuming you live to 80). By 50, just one billion seconds remain.

But as Graham Duncan pointed out, we don't relate to ourselves as the "Time Billionaires" that we really are. Most of us fail to realize the value of this asset until it is… gone.

In his passage called On the Shortness of Life, the stoic philosopher, Seneca, says, "We are not given a short life but we make it short, and we are not ill-supplied but wasteful of it." That’s Seneca.

To me, being a “Time Billionaire” isn’t necessarily about having the actual time, but about the awareness of the precious nature of the time you do have.

It’s about embracing the shortness of life and finding joy in ordinary daily moments of beauty.

Let me introduce the “Surfer Mentality”. Yeah, the surfer mentality. When a surfer gets up on a wave, they enjoy the present moment, even though they know with certainty that the wave will eventually end.

They fully enjoy THIS wave, with the wisdom and awareness that there are always more waves coming.

There are five ways that you can apply this “Surfer Mentality” and have this awareness in your life: (1) enjoy your next wave and embrace the present moment, (2) be strategic about your positioning in between waves, (3) PASS on more waves rather than jumping at the first one that comes your way, (4) always get in the water and stop sitting on the shore, and (5) roll with the punches that life deals you.

That’s the “Surfer Mentality”

Do not become an ostrich. An ostrich will bury its head in the sand to avoid danger. A lot of humans behave the same way when they encounter new information that challenges their existing beliefs or views.

An ostrich cares more about being right than finding the truth. Do not become an ostrich, embrace new information that forces you to change your mind. That, right there, is growth.

A great, actionable way for you to GROW with the time you’ve created and the priorities that you’ve outlined is to Do something new that scares you. This is EXACTLY what you did as a kid but that you forgot how to do.

For example, when you were age 11, you swam in water over your head for the first time. It made you rise up, grow, and gain confidence. I can’t tell you what grows inside you psychologically, but…

We’re operating 200,000 year-old mental software. That’s when the modern human brain came into existence.

Our primordial brains are evolutionarily wired to see problems - to detect threats like lions & tigers - and our body still responds to those threats like they are lions.

And today, we don’t have to look very hard to find those problems. Just turn on the news or scroll social media and there they are.

And in this environment, it can be easy to let ourselves be yanked around by our circumstances.

When it comes to OTHERS - peers, family, and friends along your life journey…

You have to be strict with yourself but tolerant of others.

That’s what the stoic Marcus Aurelius wrote about in his meditations. He has these exacting high standards.

Most people don’t have the self-discipline that you do… and it’s called SELF-discipline for a reason.

It’s not a thing that you get to project onto other people. You don’t get to go around insisting that other people follow YOUR standards and your code.

You have to be encouraging and forgiving of other people because they don’t have the gift that you have. They don’t own the drive that you have. There’s even a saying in ancient Rome.

“We can’t all be Catos.” If you remember from history, Cato was the influential leader that championed Roman virtues during THEIR empire.

We have to be tolerant, and accepting and encouraging of other people. If this realization is still frustrating to you…

Another way that you can think of this, is that others never signed up to the code and standards that you have.”

Money is a tool for freedom. The best reason to accumulate wealth is to buy yourself freedom from anything you don’t want to do, and the freedom to do the things you do want to do. Money is not an end in itself. If you sit on it and never use it, you’ve wasted your life.

Money CAN absolutely buy happiness. But only so long as you spend it on upgrading and expanding the things that make you happy or in buying time, instead of using it to play status games or on fleeting experiences.

Increase the difficulty. If you’re listening to this, then your life is (probably) already on easy mode compared to the global and historical standard. You need to strategically introduce some challenges to keep yourself motivated. Don’t ruin yourself, but don’t let yourself get too complacent, either.

Investing involves risk. You’re going to lose sometimes. The good news is that you don’t have to make money back in the same PLACE where you lost it.

If something in your business or life is losing money, you don’t have to plug the hole right there at that spot. Often it’s easier to make the money back elsewhere.

It’s never the right time. Any time you catch yourself saying “oh it’ll be a better time later,” you’re probably just scared. Or unclear on what to do. There is never a right time for the big things in life: having kids, changing jobs, breaking up, getting engaged, or buying the property.

Err on the side of too early over too late. Related to that point, since there’s never a “perfect time,” it’s almost always better to do things “too early.” Your conception that it’s too early is just your fear, and once you dive in you’ll figure it out. Old people tend to regret the things they didn’t do, or didn’t do earlier. Not the things they did.

Bad things happen fast, and good things happen slowly. This is one reason why bad news seems more newsworthy - but it’s not actually more important.

It’s hard-wired within you that money is a scarce resource.

Don’t be afraid to commit. You’ve got to let go of fear about tomorrow and just get on with it.

Uncertainty is a PERPETUAL condition - it’s existed in your entire past, and will in your entire future. That’s why you feel uncertainty in the present too. Uncertainty only disappears when you die.

We all want to know the future. But the truth is, it’s easier to make decisions within your certainty of NOW rather than postpone & speculate about your perpetually uncertain future.

“Life is meant to be lived, not postponed.” Don't get so caught up trying to make a living that you forget to live a life. That's not a life well-lived.

Regretting past decisions is an utter waste of energy. Does the past exist now separate from your own thoughts? Nope… it doesn’t even exist.

Coming up - you’ll hear ANOTHER voice with a more COSMIC perspective about life and the power of “now” - it includes some sound effects to anticipate.

Then I’ll come back in for today’s conclusion. I’m Keith Weinhold. It’s Episode 500 of Get Rich Education.

LISTEN: Neil Degrasse Tyson: Life and Death - A Cosmic Perspective

That’s Neil DeGrasse Tyson on the significance of life, death, and the power of “now”.

Horace Mann said, "Be ashamed to die until you have won some victory for humanity."

Life feels ordinary. But in fact, it’s incredible that you overcame tremendous odds to have your… one… precious life.

In order to be born, you needed:

2 parents
4 grandparents
8 great-grandparents
16 second great-grandparents
You needed 32 third great-grandparents
64 fourth great-grandparents
128 fifth great-grandparents
256 sixth great-grandparents
To be born, you needed 512 seventh great-grandparents
1,024 eighth great-grandparents and
2,048 ninth great-grandparents

For you to be born today from 12 previous generations, you needed a total sum of 4,094 ancestors over the last 400 years.

Think about what they overcame… to produce you – How many struggles did they have? How many battles? How many difficulties? How much sadness did THEY have?

How much happiness? How many love stories created you? How many expressions of hope for the future? – did your ancestors have to undergo for you to exist in this present moment…

The past is history, the future is a mystery, and this moment is a gift. That’s why they call this gift, “the present”.

Spend your time where time disappears. Your work should feel like play… your passions should feel like flow… with people that make hours feel like minutes.

The more present you are, the quicker the present goes. That’s the paradox.

A full life goes fast. But in the end, time that flies… is time well spent. And a life that flies by… is a life well spent.

At least here on Earth, all you’ve got is one life and one shot.

You shouldn’t fear death. You should fear a life where you could have accomplished more that fulfills your potential and aligns with your soul.

You’re here today and gone tomorrow. You’ve got NOW to go leave your dent in the universe.

There’s no time to wait. You now have less time remaining in your life than when you started listening to me today.

All that you ever have is now - always. Don’t Quit Your Daydream!

Direct download: GREepisode500_b.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 4:00am EST

Mon, 29 April 2024

Other people study one real estate group’s enormous success. Go behind the scenes to learn how they pulled off “The Memphis Miracle”.

Terry Kerr and Liz Brody from terrific turnkey property provider, Mid South Home Buyers of Memphis, TN, are back on the show.

Here’s what makes them different: junk in the backyard rather than a dumpster, property addresses viewable on their website, no tenant application fees, no maintenance upcharges, no materials upcharges, no earnest money, investor cancellation allowed, specific kitchen & bath renovation, and tenants bring their own appliances.

Memphis has such a robust renter culture that tenants bring their own appliances.

Hundreds of GRE followers have purchased income property from Mid South Home Buyers.

They’re such a popular provider that there’s an investor waitlist. For GRE followers, you can reserve up to two financed properties or three all-cash properties all at once.

They offer in-person tours to see the properties. Start at MidSouthHomeBuyers.com

Resources mentioned:

Mid South Home Buyers' Website:

www.MidSouthHomeBuyers.com

Liz Brody’s e-mail:

liz@midsouthhomebuyers.com

For access to properties or free help with a

GRE Investment Coach, start here:

Get mortgage loans for investment property:

RidgeLendingGroup.com or call 855-74-RIDGE

or e-mail: info@RidgeLendingGroup.com

Invest with Freedom Family Investments.

You get paid first: Text FAMILY to 66866

For advertising inquiries, visit:

Will you please leave a review for the show? I’d be grateful. Search “how to leave an Apple Podcasts review”

Top Properties & Providers:

GRE Free Investment Coaching:

Best Financial Education:

Get our wealth-building newsletter free—

text ‘GRE’ to 66866

Our YouTube Channel:

Follow us on Instagram:

Keith’s personal Instagram:

498: Will Population Decline OBLITERATE Real Estate?

Complete episode transcript:

Speaker Weinhold** ((00:00:00)) - - Welcome to GRE! I'm your host, Keith Weinhold. Today we're going to visit one of my favorite real estate markets. We'll talk with an operator there that is so successful and different that other companies actually study them. And our listeners have loved them for almost ten years now. Today on get Rich education.

Speaker Syslo** ((00:00:23)) - - Since 2014, the powerful Get Rich Education podcast has created more passive income for people than nearly any other show in the world. This show teaches you how to earn strong returns from passive real estate, investing in the best markets without losing your time being a flipper or landlord. Show host Keith Wine, who writes for both Forbes and Rich Dad Advisors and delivers a new show every week. Since 2014, there's been millions of listeners downloads and 188 world nations. He has A-list show guests include top selling personal finance author Robert Kiyosaki. Get Rich education can be heard on every podcast platform. Plus it has its own dedicated Apple and Android listener. Phone apps build wealth on the go with the get Rich education podcast.

Speaker Syslo** ((00:01:01)) - - Sign up now for the get Rich education podcast or visit get Rich education.com.

Speaker Coates** ((00:01:08)) - - You're listening to the show that has created more financial freedom than nearly any show in the world. This is get rich education.

Speaker Weinhold** ((00:01:24)) - - Welcome to GRE! From Sandy Creek, New York to Walnut Creek, California, and across 188 nations worldwide. I'm Keith Weinhold and this is get rich education. Some call Memphis, Tennessee the best place in the entire United States for income producing homes. And in past shows, we talked about all of those reasons on why that's true the economic, the geographic and the cultural. So all that I will add to that is, did trends like the era of Covid and this nascent sea of I did that change the advantageous Memphis economics over these past? So 3 to 5 years? No, not really, because this distribution hub market, air barge, rail and truck is still really the center of the most powerful nation on Earth when it comes to distribution. If you're moving a package from New York to LA, you're going through Memphis.

Speaker Weinhold** ((00:02:24)) - - The reason that really matters is that those distribution jobs are not transient. It's tough to outsource that activity to Thailand. Lots of things make Memphis well known Memphis barbecue, Beale Street, Graceland Elvis the birthplace of both rock n roll music and blues music. The Mississippi River, the Fedex hub. What we're doing today is going deep inside an enormously successful real estate group there in Memphis. They provide properties to investors. This is going to get rather interesting, because there are just so many things that make them different things they do that no one else that I know of does in the industry. In fact, during our discussion, if you miss any of these differentiators, all summarize them for you at the end. Today, other companies study these people. For example, their properties are totally viewable by the public. You can easily see them physical address, proforma and everything right there on their website. It's just one of a number of things that makes you say, gosh, why don't more people do things the same way that these people do? Now? When I visited Memphis with today's guests, we looked at properties in all different construction stages.

Speaker Weinhold** ((00:03:48)) - - At one, there was a giant pile of junk all over the backyard, and that is exactly according to their plan because we were touring a property mid rehab and they don't put a dumpster out on the street like everyone else does. Why is that? Because renting a dumpster is costly and it makes the neighborhood look blighted for a while. They just put all the refuse in the backyard and come by and have a junk collection day for their properties later. And then, oppositely, I also saw other beautifully finished homes where the real hardwood floors shined so much that I wondered when I could move in myself. Now, when you add a property to your real estate portfolio, you can do things like get a property inspection and check out that property today, and maybe even learn about your tenant before you buy a property. But one thing that you don't know is what kind of tenant could this property attract in five years? Well, in Memphis, as you'll see, it is a complete renter culture there. In fact, with the provider that we're about to talk with today, when I visited Memphis and this was quite a while ago, I was driving around with them and they were showing me their sample properties, and I asked them about appreciation in the areas where they buy.

Speaker Weinhold** ((00:05:12)) - - I asked what about appreciation? And they began talking about rents. They thought that I meant rent appreciation. No, that's not the way that I talk. Appreciation means capital price to me. But that fact right there is just indicative of the renter culture that they have there. Let's learn more about it and take a trip to Memphis. Today. It's like the return of two longtime terrific friends. It's Terry Kerr and Liz Brody from Midsouth homebuyers in Memphis. Welcome in.

Speaker Brody** ((00:05:50)) - - Hi, Keith.

Speaker Weinhold** ((00:05:51)) - - Hey, Keith. Thanks so much for having us again.

Speaker Brody** ((00:05:53)) - - Always love to be here.

Speaker Weinhold** ((00:05:55)) - - Oh, yeah. Now, I've never heard sticks, bricks and mortar talk, but if they could, they would probably sound like you two. And that's because you really are the figurative voice of properties that so many of our followers, probably hundreds, now, have bought over the years. So I just think it's reassuring for us to hear your voice here on great every couple years. And, Terry, this really all began with you 22 years ago.

Speaker Weinhold** ((00:06:20)) - - You found that you simply enjoyed fixing up houses. Then you found that others like your ability to renovate property for them, and then you began doing it at scale, placing tenants, starting your own warehouse, which I was inside when it was new. You brought in property management and more. And now that you lead a team that's done thousands of rehab properties and you've even added new build, we'll get to that later. You're still Memphis based. But six years ago you branched out to little Rock, Arkansas, two hours to the west. But with all that, Terry, back from the start, when you began rehabbing Memphis houses, at what point did you learn the fact that, oh, now you just happened to be from an Investor Advantage City, where you get high rents in proportion to a low purchase price? Like, when did that epiphany occur? I tell you what, I'm the luckiest guy I know.

Speaker Kerr** ((00:07:12)) - - I was born in the right city at the right time, and was able to cultivate an incredible team of pros to help me run this business.

Speaker Kerr** ((00:07:22)) - - Obviously, Liz has been here for 15 years running and gunning with me, but I would say when I realized that we were super fortunate to be in Memphis, Tennessee with all the awesomeness that it provides for cash flow, it was probably right in the middle of the credit crisis when it became real obvious that even though there was, you know, blood in the street, if you will, there was a ton of opportunity. And it came from a buddy of mine who had about ten houses that he had fixed up himself and was managing, and he started buying from us. And I asked him why, and he said, because as the leverage of time, I can buy them from you already fixed up for the same price that I will have in it, if not more, when I'm spending my own time. And that's when really and truly, the idea became crystal clear that passing bargains on to bargain hunters was where we were going to focus.

Speaker Weinhold** ((00:08:20)) - - You surely found your niche, and in being from Memphis and finding that right niche and finding the right properties, most people find in that sense that buying super cheap homes looks attractive on the surface to go fix up, but it often doesn't work because you're in blighted neighborhoods.

Speaker Weinhold** ((00:08:40)) - - And then in the opposite end, you don't want to go to high end because the rents really aren't that good for the higher purchase price. And both Terry and Liz, you can feel free to chime in on this, but let's talk about the formation then of your go zone versus your no go zone. So we're really talking about sweet spot discovery here.

Speaker Brody** ((00:09:01)) - - I always kind of love your origin story a little bit. As far as maybe buying a little bit too low. Right. feeling the pain. Yep. Having to protect the materials you're putting in the renovation. Overcorrecting swinging up to the pretty stuff. That kind of sounds nice at the cocktail party, but shelling out a bunch of money for very little return. It has never made sense. I have a lot that I prefer about working class renters over a class renters, if you will, for so many reasons. They stay longer. It costs money to move a class. Renters are more litigious. They're going to go be homebuyers. It's a lot.

Speaker Brody** ((00:09:36)) - - If you're paying tip top rent, you're going to call on a work order because your door handle is loose. And at the end of the day, the lower your rent is, the more people can afford your property. You want to talk about being recession proof. Being in that working class area really, really helps. So there's a lot to it.

Speaker Kerr** ((00:09:54)) - - There is. And, as of this morning, our, occupancy rate was 99.17. It'll dip down into the mid 90 eights around the holidays. Liz, you hit the nail on the head. I mean, where you want to operate in the zone where you can have the highest occupancy rate. And, although a class properties that may look nice, but folks don't stay long because they're more transient, they end up buying a home for themselves. So in the beginning, we did things the wrong way a lot. And we, you know, scraped our toes and scuffed our knees. And we're just fortunate that we were able to figure it out and then work it to scale.

Speaker Brody** ((00:10:28)) - - And another thing I think that is really neat and powerful about our roots as a company that I always love is so, so Terry, realizing that he wanted to, you know, pass on bargains to bargain hunters, he'd been buying and creating these homes. For himself. You were building your own rental property portfolio, as people do, but there was a doctor that we had sold a number of houses to, but Taylor was not managing them, and they were out at dinner and they were comparing notes, and Terry's properties were outperforming the doctors. And they were identical. They were identical rehabs, identical everything. And the difference was Terry's management doctor said, I'm not going to buy any more houses from you unless you will manage my properties too. And you'd known the day was coming. He'd been thinking about it anyway. But we had a property management company. It just managed Terry's properties and so much about how we manage properties. And that really is feeding into that 99% occupancy rate came because Terry designed his property management company as an owner.

Speaker Brody** ((00:11:30)) - - One thing we've talked on about here before is how we don't charge application fees to renters. That's because when Terry was standing in the front yard of a house that he had spent his life savings, his nights and weekends renovating, he didn't care about $50 an adult head from an application fee. He wanted to get the best human being possible in his home. And to this day, we are the only property management company I know of coast to coast. That is a no application fee at all times. Company not up charging maintenance, not charging materials. There's so much that is unique about how our property management company operates, because if Terry didn't say, I'm going to manage your properties differently than I manage my own, I just think that's a really important foundational forming sort of a factor for how we manage.

Speaker Weinhold** ((00:12:17)) - - You do so many things differently there that you're really interesting to study, and your primary business is renovating homes and selling them to investors like me and our followers that want to hold them with a tenant in it for the long term production of income and leverage and all of that.

Speaker Weinhold** ((00:12:35)) - - The neighborhood. It wouldn't matter to you as much, probably, if you're just doing in and out fix in flips where you don't have any future ongoing relationship with that buyer of your rehabbed property. Therefore, in that case, you would have less neighborhood concern. But now, of course, the neighborhood, it really matters to you because you are managing what you sell.

Speaker Kerr** ((00:12:58)) - - Absolutely. And that's why not only is it the neighborhood that matters in managing what we sell, but it's also why we like to buy the houses that are in the worst condition. Because the worst condition of property is when you buy it, the more things you can replace, right? And so we're proud of the fact that we're taking the ugliest house on a street that was owned by a local investor who maybe bought it 30 or 40 years ago, managed it, his or herself, retired, and is then at a point in their life where they want to sell it. Typically there's tons of deferred maintenance, and we're proud to be able to buy those houses and pay a little more than the market, because we have honed our skills at taking these houses that are in super bad shape and bringing them all the way up to the best house on the street.

Speaker Brody** ((00:13:45)) - - And Keith, you hit the nail on the head. We're not just walking away. Our acquisitions team actually passes on about 25 houses. For every one that we put an offer in. You can actually look at our inventory on our website. And so when you go to the available property section of Midsouth homebuyers, those 50 or 60 houses you're seeing, each one jumped through 50 or 60 hoops to become a Mid-South homebuyers house. One thing I always tell folks is, as you know, Keith, we have a short waitlist for our properties, but my acquisitions team is not out there thinking about me and my waitlist. It is actually a mandate from Terry that we do not pass on a property to an investor that he would not probably own in his own portfolio, and we have no one wants to manage a problem property. Nobody wants to manage a property in a neighborhood that can attract a quality renter. If you get approved with our property management company, that means you would be approved anywhere in town within the limits of your income.

Speaker Brody** ((00:14:43)) - - That's the way of stating, essentially, that our renters have choices and options about where they live. People with choices and options don't put their families in unsafe neighborhoods, let alone environmental factors. Being close to a corner store that gets too much foot traffic, highway noise, just little things like that. And we're built on repeat and referred business. And frankly, our profit margins are really slim per house. So there's just no reason to buy a house that is less than and risk a repeat buyer risk or problem, something that's harder to manage.

Speaker Weinhold** ((00:15:18)) - - Yeah. So we're talking often about rehabbed single family homes here. Your price points seem to be between 95 and 160 K for that. And sometimes you have duplexes and other more expensive properties. And these are good houses in pride of ownership neighborhoods that I have been inside with each of you. So that's what we're talking about here. But you. Another differentiator. There is something that makes you guys different, and that's the fact that you do publicly put your physical addresses out there for anyone just to see easily on your website.

Speaker Weinhold** ((00:15:50)) - - That's something that a lot of companies don't do. Can you tell us why that is? Why do you make this so publicly available and that few others do?

Speaker Kerr** ((00:15:59)) - - So our philosophy has just been we want to be the easy folks to work with. Whether it's our investor partners are bankers, contractors, subcontractors, internal employees, closing attorneys, whatever it is. And and so we also wanted to make it easy for folks to learn about how to shop for a turnkey seller in any market, whether it's us or anywhere in the US. And we want to make it easy for folks to go in and check out our properties, see what we have under contract to sell and use those properties, kind of as a litmus test to kind of get used to what's going to be coming down the pipe for them if they hop on the wait list. So we don't want to make our potential investor partners jump through hoops so we can grab their email address and give them the hard sell. We pride ourselves on being able to communicate what a turnkey seller can do to provide value and operate from an educational standpoint.

Speaker Kerr** ((00:16:54)) - - And and in the same vein, it's the same reason, like Liz was mentioning, that although we do all the same background checks, credit checks, employment verification, we don't charge our residents for that. And it's the same way, like when we sell houses, we do not require earnest money. So someone puts a house under contract with us, we've never required any earnest money and someone can cancel for any time for any reason. Because if life happens to someone during the contract process, we are not going to hold their feet to the fire. And one of the other little example of us really working hard to be easy to work with is property management. Most property management companies, you sign a contract and you're locked in for this period of time. If something happens to someone for some reason and they like, have to put their parents into a nursing home or their kid doesn't gets into a college, it's really expensive and they need to sell or whatever it is. Like there's no oh, you're locked into a contract.

Speaker Kerr** ((00:17:50)) - - So we're just looking to be easy to work with and operate from an educational standpoint.

Speaker Brody** ((00:17:58)) - - I don't want you to be popping champagne at the closing table. Or confetti if you don't drink. If the wind change directions for any reason, if you want to take it to Vegas, we understand one of the fun things about our business model is the house's cash flow for us as well. They really do make money and so we're able to approach it from that. And personally, as I educate folks about us, you know, Mid-South is one of the most formulaic businesses that especially in real estate, where there's such a wide variety of things that I have ever encountered, almost going back to acquisitions and how picky we are on the houses and how they have to jump through so many hoops. One thing I like to tell investors, as many people know, I buy directly from the company. I pay full price. There's no employee discount on a house. I pay 10% management until I got to a portfolio size and so on.

Speaker Brody** ((00:18:47)) - - And what I tell folks is when I get my down payment saved up, I'm ready to buy my next Mid-South house. Keith, I've found that house in 3 to 4 weeks because there's nothing to hold out for. There's nothing to wait and see. There's not that one special deal. And so going back to the houses being all on the website. So there's kind of a two pronged thing there. So our leasing team, we often take a deposit from a renter before we're even done with the rehab. Just like we get a lot of investor referrals, we get a lot of renter referrals. We are the only turnkey that I'm aware of as an example, that does all new kitchen cabinets every single time. Nothing wrong with painted cabinets. I've lived in houses with painted cabinets, but we all know kitchens and baths rent houses and they sell houses. And that's like my leasing team is showing these renters the all new tile shower surround, the all new kitchen. I am able to show investors. Since we do have we're grateful to have more investors and houses, and we do have kind of that short, maybe 90 day wait time before they can get houses.

Speaker Brody** ((00:19:50)) - - I say jump on our website, have a pretend shopping trip, pretend every one of those houses is available today and you're going to write a check today. And the 4 or 5 that you kind of start to identify as ticking your boxes if you're like in 320 Maple Street today, I am going to have 490 Maple Street for you. Same zip code, same cash flow, same price to rent relationship. And that means it makes sense for you to join our short wait list because you're going to see that same thing. And so it's very helpful. And I think most other people's approach and there's nothing wrong with this, but you're going to have our friendly competition. There might be a five year old water heater and a 20 year old roof, and this house has a new water heater, but an even older roof. And the price and the relationships are kind of all over the map. And they'll say, well, it's because of area and this and that. And again, back to me being able to pick out my Mid-South house within about three weeks of having decided I'm going to do it.

Speaker Brody** ((00:20:46)) - - And I know this isn't very scientific. I go on like trying to curb appeal within my price range, because Mid-South has hammered out every other floor and they get so interchangeable. And so the web that having all of our properties, even though they're under contract to investors at the top of the wait list available where everyone can come and see that is so helpful.

Speaker Weinhold** ((00:21:06)) - - Yeah, because of course it's about making the right upgrades when it's going to be a rental property. Words like opulence and extravagance really don't make a lot of sense here. I mean, adding a wine cellar with mahogany finishes and marble floors to might boost the price. 40 K and not only would you over improve the neighborhood, but your target tenant, they might only pay $25 more per month for that. So it's about making those right upgrades like you touched on.

Speaker Brody** ((00:21:34)) - - I always say, every dollar we spend is either to defer maintenance or to attract another dollar in rent. And if it doesn't check those two boxes, it doesn't make sense. So an example would be if you were going to sell something retail to an owner occupant, maybe an eight foot wooden cedar privacy fence might make sense for a rental property over a chain link.

Speaker Brody** ((00:21:56)) - - It does not get you $1 and you're that was going to, you know, rot and so on. And so that's our approach on everything. But there is money you can spend that does attract another dollar in rent. And that's when we spend it.

Speaker Weinhold** ((00:22:08)) - - Now there's something really interesting going on in you guys. Is geography both in Memphis and out in little Rock. When we talk about those physical amenities inside a property, and that is with appliances rental demand in Memphis, and little Rock is so high that tenants bring their own appliances. Tell us about that.

Speaker Brody** ((00:22:27)) - - Actually, little Rock is more like the rest of the country. It's one of the things that we I kind of use that website for. So it's one of the few differences you'll see between our houses is if you're looking at the kitchens and the Memphis houses, there's no appliances. If you're looking at the kitchens in our new construction properties, because it's at a rent point or that kicks in in our little Rock properties, you're going to see brand new black or stainless steel GE whirlpool appliances in there, but about 80% of our inventory is going to be renovated properly.

Speaker Brody** ((00:22:57)) - - In Memphis, where you will not see those appliances and is Terry knows I came to him 15 years ago from a different market and about ten years in property management, and he casually and calmly told me to remind the renters to bring their own appliances. I had come in from the leasing side and I thought, I'm working for a lunatic. I am about to get laughed off the phone. Oh my gosh, am I even? I'd been there a week. I was like, oh man, what are we doing? And literally the first Mrs. Smith, if you will, that I spoke to on the phone, I kind of softly whispered with trepidation for the backlash, don't forget to bring your appliances. And she was like, oh yeah, of course. And she actually paused and said, they're not in there, right? There's nothing in there because she owned her own appliances. Our average renter is coming to us from another single family home. One of our many rules is you have to pay rent yesterday.

Speaker Brody** ((00:23:53)) - - We want a lot of folks will take two years. Landlord history, and it's okay if you've lived with your mom for a year. There's a lot of ways that our criteria is just a little bit more stringent. Our typical renter is coming to us from another single family home. They have a lawnmower. They own their stove, they own their fridge, then they own their washer dryer. And it is just a subtle perk. You don't repair them. You don't replace them.

Speaker Weinhold** ((00:24:14)) - - Yeah. That's interesting. I'm a geographer. I often think about and love maps. Maybe I need to do some research and make a range map of where tenants travel with appliances. Does that happen up in Missouri or out in Oklahoma? Or just where do the limits of that map and you're listening to it versus occasion? We're talking with the voices of Mid-South homebuyers Terry Kerr and Liz Brody. When we come back, I'm your host, Keith Windle. Role under the specific expert with income property, you need Ridge Lending Group and MLS for 256 injury history from beginners to veterans.

Speaker Weinhold** ((00:24:53)) - - They provided our listeners with more mortgages than anyone. It's where I get my own loans for single family rentals up to four Plex's. Start your pre-qualification and chat with President Charlie Ridge personally. They'll even customize a plan tailored to you for growing your portfolio. Start at Ridge Lending group.com Ridge lending group.com. You know, I'll just tell you, for the most passive part of my real estate investing, personally, I put my own dollars with Freedom Family Investments because their funds pay me a stream of regular cash flow in returns, or better than a bank savings account, up to 12%. Their minimums are as low as 25 K. You don't even need to be accredited for some of them. It's all backed by real estate and that kind of love. How the tax benefit of doing this can offset capital gains and your W-2 jobs income. And they've always given me exactly their stated return paid on time. So it's steady income, no surprises while I'm sleeping or just doing the things I love. For a little insider tip, I've invested in their power fund to get going on that text family to 66866.

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Speaker 6** ((00:26:23)) - - This is Rick Schrager, housing market intelligence analyst. Listen to get rich education with Keith wine old and don't quit your daydream. He.

Speaker Weinhold** ((00:26:42)) - - Welcome back to get Rich. We're talking with Terry Currie and Liz Brodie of Midsouth Homebuyers based in Memphis, Tennessee, because they do so much volume and through their operational efficiencies like they've been describing, you can see why it's attractive to both tenants and investors. If a tenant can pay the same rent or 3% less rent and get a 12% better property, that's why they have such high occupancy. And although your bread and butter, sort of where you started out as doing renovated properties in Memphis, you've joined in and really help give the nation what they need. And that is new build property to help deal with the national housing shortage. So can you tell us more about what you're doing with New Build?

Speaker Kerr** ((00:27:23)) - - We heard from our investors for a long time, and we found out very quickly that residents also like the new construction director for rental and typical fashion, you know, we stuck our toe in, we made sure our foundation was built and we were ready to handle it.

Speaker Kerr** ((00:27:37)) - - And we slowly but surely started doing new construction in little Rock with just small developments, 130 unit development, another 30 unit development with lots of scattered lot. And now in Memphis we're doing the same thing. And we have got what Liz 1215 going right now. new construction going in Memphis. And we are definitely continuing with our bread and butter rehabs, but we're really happy to be able to offer new construction director rental properties that are built specifically for rental with ten year transferable slab warranties, PEX plumbing, hip roofs, the whole nine yards just to make them just darn near maintenance free on the exterior. And they are just flying off the shelf with renters and investors alike.

Speaker Brody** ((00:28:26)) - - It's been just fantastic. You can see them on our website. They have a special new construction label. And the we have a really cool IRR calculation on the website. And we have turned up the appreciation ratio for the new construction. It's the only way any house is calculated any differently than any other house. And I think there's just a really neat value to that in that when that investor is going to go sell that house for a profit in 15, 20 years, though, plenty of folks are leaving them to their kids, and this applies as well.

Speaker Brody** ((00:28:58)) - - You're selling a 15 year old house. That's kind of cool. It's just been really neat and one of the best things. Keith, I know you know, that our wait times had gotten and we are grateful because we were doing over 400 houses a year. But at one point our wait times were over a year.

Speaker Weinhold** ((00:29:13)) - - We're talking about your investor.

Speaker Brody** ((00:29:14)) - - Waitlist investor wait time. Thank you. Yes, the amount of time if someone called me and wanted a house today that they would have to wait as I got houses to everyone ahead of them in line. We now have a faucet and it's the new construction faucet and we can turn it on. And that additional, I believe that we provide an extra 70 houses in the last 12 months from new construction has our wait times down to 90 days or so for a financed investor, and about 45 on a cash buyer side, 45 days. And so we're just thrilled we're able to work with folks doing 1030 ones in a way we never have before. And it's just great to be able to kind of meet some of that demand.

Speaker Weinhold** ((00:29:57)) - - And you really get in there and work closely with investors that have 1031 exchange timelines to meet, and you can more easily do that now with that increased faucet flow with your new build.

Speaker Brody** ((00:30:08)) - - Absolutely, I love it. And so because for so many years, and we've always been so grateful for the demand, but I got calls. I'm selling $1 million property in California, I'm selling a $2 million property in New York. And I was so much fun to disperse with you. And while it is still just one at a time for finance buyers, so I've been doing case by case exceptions for that and for get Rich education listeners. I want to make that as just a permanent exception, that they can do two financed properties at a time. Right. And then cash folks can do three at a time. But then we are now able to have a 1031 program where if you reach out to me and we're going to discuss the date of the sale of your subject property, what your needs are. That way I can make sure my wait times that I'm quoting to other investors are accurate.

Speaker Brody** ((00:30:51)) - - We're going to make sure you're meeting your 45 day timeline. As you might know, you can do you could identify actually before the subject property is sold, which I find some people don't know, we're able to, even with all the demand for our properties, help people avoid those taxes and do the 1030 ones.

Speaker Weinhold** ((00:31:09)) - - The tax deferred exchange for people with all the accumulated equity in the Covid run up. And just real quickly, of course, this is going to change if you're listening to this five years or even one year into the future. But what are the interest rates on the buy downs that you're doing on the new build properties for the investor?

Speaker Brody** ((00:31:27)) - - So that's one of the coolest things. So and I really think Fannie and Freddie that they're doing this right. As you know, Keith, and as you talk about there is a housing shortage. Nobody loves higher interest rates. But they cooled the. Market, I think, in the way that they wanted to, but they're still encouraging new construction. And so we are able to do called a forward commitment, but we pre buy down the rate for the investor.

Speaker Brody** ((00:31:51)) - - And as people deep in real estate may know, the sellers can only contribute 2% of the purchase price to a buyers closing cost. So your average buyer can only buy their rate down X amount. What we're doing is buying it down ahead of time on these new construction properties, and you still have all the range to buy it down more on top of what we've done. So that really is a big difference. And so right now on our new construction properties, folks can get as low as 5.75.

Speaker Weinhold** ((00:32:19)) - - That's really attractive.

Speaker Brody** ((00:32:20)) - - Yeah, it's really great. You walk in the door at 6.3. I see folks out there running their numbers at 8%. And it's really fun to tell them, oh no, no no that past that. So yeah, it's been wonderful.

Speaker Weinhold** ((00:32:32)) - - That's really some of the best news. Well, the two of you have always done things differently. You've been really fairly innovative in a number of ways, in my perspective. In fact, when I visited your office back in 2015, I still remember when you had the electronic status board of your properties up there.

Speaker Weinhold** ((00:32:51)) - - This is at a time when most companies were using a whiteboard and a dry erase marker and all that. So you're always engineering in efficiencies to the things that you do in winding down here at. Tell us a little bit more, including the investor tours that you offer so often because you're so proud of what you've got there.

Speaker Kerr** ((00:33:10)) - - Liz rolls around. Any investor who wants to come visit with us once a month, we have a tour. We've got a sprinter van that we roll around. lately the sprinter van that holds 12 has not been doing it, so we've had to rent another van. But Liz tours folks around, she shows them our facility, introduces them to some of our team members, and then goes and shows them a before a during rehab and a finished rehab so they can see everything during the process and just really rolls out so folks can see a visual of exactly how we do and why we do it.

Speaker Brody** ((00:33:48)) - - Yeah, it's so much fun. So about 95% of our investors have never set foot in Memphis or Little Rock.

Speaker Brody** ((00:33:53)) - - If your goal is to do it from your living room, have no fear. We are set up for you to do everything from your living room, but it will push your confidence through the roof to come out. I can't tell you what a happy, chill vibe our office has. Terry happens to be an amazing guy to work for. We have a lot of long term employees. I've been with him 15 years. But you'll meet Nia. That's been with us for ten years. Matt, our property manager. He's been with us for 12. Nia is kind of the me on the other end of closing, even your renters actually hear a smiling voice within two rings. That's a leasing agent that's been with us for eight, nine years. You're going to get to meet those folks. You're going to get to see the warehouse. I'm no CPA, but for most people, that trip's going to be a tax write off. But we're also going to give you $500 towards your closing cost on your first house as a thank you for coming out, particularly Keith.

Speaker Brody** ((00:34:44)) - - I love it because so many of our investors are from high cost of living areas where you cannot get renovated house in a peaceful neighborhood for $150,000. And I just love, you know, the birds are chirping. There's no foot traffic. No, there's no it's just quiet because that whole neighborhood's at work and there's no trash and there's no graffiti. Not to mention letting folks bang on the cabinets and kick the the tires, so to speak. And so if people are listening to this, when our new website is up, there will be a full tour list for the rest of the year available online. If they're listening to this when it comes out, they can reach out to me for the next dates, but we'd love to sign them up.

Speaker Weinhold** ((00:35:25)) - - If you'd like, you can fly in on a Thursday. The tours are Fridays and I took a look the upcoming tours on May 17th, June 28th and July 12th, but you can see how often they're doing them there. Terry. Liz. Rarely, if ever, have I heard bricks and mortar have so much personality.

Speaker Weinhold** ((00:35:43)) - - Income was such a thing. It's amazing that this happened here. Tell us any last thoughts and then how our listeners can learn more about you.

Speaker Brody** ((00:35:51)) - - For last thoughts. I think what I want to tell people is that if you feel intimidated about investing, if you feel like there is jargon, if lending is confusing to you, please don't hesitate to reach out and jump on the phone with us. We have incredibly experienced investors that own hundreds of apartment buildings, but one of my favorite things is to just help a first time investor get their feet under them. I understand the nerves and the butterflies that can come with it. I know how hard people work to save up these down payments, and we are there for you for the questions, the granular questions, and it's okay if you're really new. I have helped folks in LA and New York that are renters, and this is actually their first. Purchase, because literally buying anything in their local market is 2 million bucks. And so if you have never bought a house before, please don't feel intimidated to email or to call because we've got you and you're going to plug in to man, I've been vetting the best lenders for 15 years, ID title companies, insurance, and the way that we keep our finger on the pulse of who's giving the best service, who's giving the best cost for even just the rest of the team that's going to get you closed.

Speaker Brody** ((00:37:07)) - - Is that and then for how to find us miss South homebuyers.com and I am Lisette. Lisette for anyone that wants to give us a shout that way. Quick side note there is a video on the home page of our website and that's true whether you're seeing the one that's out right now or the one we've got coming. But it is a video version of that tour. You can see our warehouse, you can see our offices. You're going to see houses in some different stages. We actually just one of our investors was like, you should put a GoPro helmet on your head for this tour. And that's about what we did. And so for those of you that may not be able to come right now, check out that video. As we mentioned, go look at the houses, go look at the kitchens. Go look at everything and let us know.

Speaker Weinhold** ((00:37:50)) - - Well, this has been amazing to hear a new piece of Terri's origin story. And then I think you, the listener, can feel the passion in the willingness to help in Liz's voice.

Speaker Weinhold** ((00:37:59)) - - It's exactly what she expertly does. Terri and Liz, it's so great having you back on the show.

Speaker Kerr** ((00:38:05)) - - Thanks so much, Keith.

Speaker Brody** ((00:38:06)) - - Thanks, Keith.

Speaker Weinhold** ((00:38:12)) - - Yeah. Such uniqueness. Their elucidation from Terry and Liz. Now, in real estate, you hear the term buyer's market and seller's market will. Memphis is a landlord's market when it comes to tenants traveling with appliances. In talking with Liz Sommer, it's because as this vibrant tenant and renter culture has evolved, landlords really haven't had to compete with each other. That's why that is getting a little anthropogenic here, Here are some of the attributes that make Mid-South different, perhaps even unique. There's no tenant application fee, so they get a greater renter pool. They don't mark up maintenance and materials. They put addresses of their properties on their website. Like we mentioned, they don't require investor earnest money. Investors can cancel for any reason, and tenants bring their own appliances. Those are some differentiators. And there are more. I mean, the tenant has a favorite Maytag dishwasher or whirlpool refrigerator.

Speaker Weinhold** ((00:39:21)) - - Well, a tenant might very well use that in more than one home during their lifetime. We didn't talk numbers much today, but again, you can see the properties on their website. You can come on in with your rate. Currently bought down to 5.75% on their new builds. And that's really kind of about what they will do for you. Now, the gray listener, it used to be that after you made it to the top of the investor wait list, you could buy one property, and then you'd have to go back on the bottom of their wait list in order to get your next one, but no longer for you, the GRE listener. You can reserve two finance properties at a time and three at a time. Cash. You can get started at Midsouth homebuyers.com. Until next week when I'll be back with episode 500. I'm your host, Keith Wines, a little bit. Don't quit your day. Drink.

Speaker 7** ((00:40:17)) - - Nothing on this show should be considered specific, personal or professional advice. Please consult an appropriate tax, legal, real estate, financial or business professional for individualized advice.

Speaker 7** ((00:40:27)) - - Opinions of guests are their own. Information is not guaranteed. All investment strategies have the potential for profit or loss. The host is operating on behalf of get Rich education LLC exclusively.

Speaker Weinhold** ((00:40:45)) - - The preceding program was brought to you by your home for wealth building. Get rich education.com.

Direct download: GREepisode499_.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 4:00am EST

Mon, 22 April 2024

If properties are empty from population decline, they’ll lose value and rent. If this happens, then what’s the timeline?

Richard Vague, the PA Governor-appointed Secretary of Banking and Securities from 2020-2023, joins us.

US and world birth rates keep declining.

As population declines, per capita GDP often increases.

Richard believes that inequality will widen.

Most models show the US population increasing for several decades. A median model is 342M today up to 383M in 2054.

Opposite of what the Fed thinks, Richard believes that lower interest rates can quell today’s persistent inflation.

The US has had 9 instances of high inflation. It’s often spurred by wars, which create shortages.

I tell Richard about GRE’s Inflation Triple Crown and ask his opinion.

Real estate values rise as debt-to-GDP rises.

I point-blank ask Richard if an economic crisis is imminent.

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497: Why High Salaries DON'T Create Wealth, Why Western US Homes Cost More than Eastern US Homes

Complete episode transcript:

Keith Weinhold (00:00:01) - Welcome to GRE! I'm your host, Keith Weinhold. The phenomenon of population decline is spreading throughout the world. Will that come to the US and obliterate real estate then? A bit of a debate on the affliction of inflation and what this all means to real estate today on get rich education. When you want the best real estate and finance info. The modern internet experience limits your free articles access, and it's replete with paywalls. And you've got pop ups and push notifications and cookies. Disclaimers are. At no other time in history has it been more vital to place nice, clean, free content into your hands that actually adds no hype value to your life? See, this is the golden age of quality newsletters, and I write every word of ours myself. It's got a dash of humor and it's to the point to get the letter. It couldn't be more simple. Text GRE to 66866. And when you start the free newsletter, you'll also get my one hour fast real estate course completely free. It's called the Don't Quit Your Day dream letter and it wires your mind for wealth.

Keith Weinhold (00:01:18) - Make sure you read it. Text GRE to 66866. Text GRE to 66866.

Corey Coates (00:01:30) - You're listening to the show that has created more financial freedom than nearly any show in the world. This is get rich education.

Keith Weinhold (00:01:46) - We're going to drive from Lake Winnebago, Wisconsin to Mono Lake, California, and across 188 nations worldwide. I'm Keith Weinhold, and you're listening to get Rich education. Real estate is obviously a strong, proven store of value. Now, what's interesting is that most economists agree that money should be three things a medium of exchange, a unit of account, and a store of value. Well, please don't take offense here. This can sound a little crude, but there's one thing to call those that use dollars as a store of value, and that is poor. How is a dollar a store of value when you've had 20% plus cumulative inflation over the last three years alone, the dollar is a poor store of value. We're going to get into inflation with our other esteemed guest and gubernatorial appointee today. He has some opinions on inflation, and you may very well feel that I poke him on this topic today.

Keith Weinhold (00:02:58) - I'll also get his input on our inflation Triple Crown concept, where real estate helps you win with inflation three ways at the same time. But first, he and I are going to discuss the specter of population decline. And well, it's not always a specter to people because some feel that the world is better off with fewer people, environmentalists and others. Japan's native born population is falling at a rate of almost 100 people per hour. Yeah, you heard that right. Well, is that coming to the United States and how bad would that be for real estate? Before we go on with those discussions about population decline and then inflation, here's something cool. Is your first language Spanish, or do you have any Spanish speaking family or friends? If you do, you're in luck! I'm proud to announce that our real estate Pays five ways video course is now available in Spanish and it is free. Yes, all five course videos leverage depreciation, cash flow, ROA, tax benefits and inflation profiting. All broken down by me in Spanish.

Keith Weinhold (00:04:15) - You can see those five videos. And again they're free at get rich education. Comment espanol tell to familia e amigos. That's all right there on the page at get Rich education. Com slash espanol. And hey, if you're a business owner or decision maker and would like to advertise on our platform, well, we'd like to check you out first and look at this slowly. Oftentimes I use the product or service myself. Get rich. Education is ranked in the top one half of 1% of listened to podcasts globally, per lesson notes on air every single week since 2014. Some say that we were the first show to finally, clearly explain how real estate makes ordinary people wealthy. For advertising information and inquiries, visit get Rich education.com/ad let's get rich education compered. Today it's the return of a terrific guest. This week's guest was with us last year. He's an economic futurist, keynote speaker, and popular author. He's the former secretary of banking and securities for the Great Commonwealth of Pennsylvania. Today, he runs a group that predicts financial crises called Tycho's.

Keith Weinhold (00:05:40) - That's really interesting. Joining us from Philadelphia today. Hey, it's great to welcome back Richard Vague.

Richard Vague (00:05:47) - Thank you so much for having me. It's real privilege.

Keith Weinhold (00:05:50) - Vague is spelled vague u e just like it sounds. If you're listening in the audio only. Richard also has a YouTube channel where, among other things, he discusses topics like population decline and inflation. Two things that we'll get into today. But before that, Richard, how exactly do you get tapped by the governor of Pennsylvania to have been appointed his banking secretary? Anyway? How does that really happen?

Richard Vague (00:06:16) - Well, I served under Governor Thomas Wolf, a superb governor here at Pennsylvania. We kind of were both very familiar with each other, and I had already written a number of books on banking crises, including The Next Economic Disaster and A Brief History of Doom. And he had read those, and so much to my surprise, he showed up in my office one day and asked me if I'd consider it.

Keith Weinhold (00:06:40) - Wow, that is really cool.

Keith Weinhold (00:06:42) - All right. You kind of led with your writing in your books for making that happen. Richard, here's a big question that I have for you. At 8.1 billion people today is Earth's overpopulated or underpopulated?

Richard Vague (00:06:58) - Well, there's a lot of very valid points on both sides of that. You know, there are a number of folks who decry the level of population we have because of its destructive impact on the environment. And there's a lot of folks that note that it's population growth that really has made our economic growth so vibrant. So there's a real contention on that issue. We tend not to take a position, but what we do know is as world population growth is slowing, which it clearly is, that is going to make economic growth much more challenging in a whole lot of places around the world, some of which you're actually starting to see population declines, like China.

Keith Weinhold (00:07:46) - I want to get to that slowing growth in a moment. We talk about overpopulation versus under population. Some in the overpopulation camp thinking the world has too many people they're referred to as Malthusian, was named for Thomas Malthus, who in 1798 he said the world would exceed its agricultural carrying capacity and there was going to be mass starvation.

Keith Weinhold (00:08:09) - Malthus was wrong. He didn't consider technological advancements. So I guess my point is the future can be really difficult to predict.

Richard Vague (00:08:18) - Yeah. Without question. You know, the big innovation came in the early 1900s when we figured out how to synthetically manufacture of things like fertilizer, which allowed arable land area to increase dramatically. It kind of took them out of this equation off the table.

Keith Weinhold (00:08:36) - Yes. With the mechanization of harvesting and the engineering of foods, there sure have been a lot of advancements there to help feed more people. And yeah, Richard, you talk about population decline. Of course, the world population overall is still growing, but its rate of growth is declining. So before we talk about the United States, you mentioned China. Why don't we discuss population decline more in global terms, where even nations like India are already struggling to exceed the replacement birth rate of 2.1?

Richard Vague (00:09:10) - Yeah, I mean, it's a phenomenon that, you know, we haven't faced or perhaps even thought of for a couple hundred years because population growth accelerated so dramatically with the Industrial Revolution.

Richard Vague (00:09:22) - We've really not known anything but rapid growth. And frankly, it's easier to grow businesses. And the economy is old. But now we're seeing places like China, Japan, Germany that are facing population declines in places like India, which, as you said, is comparatively a younger country. Nevertheless, facing this prospect as well, then in 1980, the average age in the US was 30. Today it's 38. In Germany I believe it's 48. So the world is getting old in a way that it had not previously in the industrial revolutionary period.

Keith Weinhold (00:10:03) - I think a lot of people are aware that many parts of Europe, Japan, South Korea are in population decline or they're set up for population decline. But yes, some of these other nations that we think of as newer nations or growing nations, including India, are not forecast to. Grow in, Richard. Are we really down? Of course. There are a number of outliers. Are we down mostly to Africa that still have the high birth rates?

Richard Vague (00:10:29) - As the world has become more urban, the need for more kids has declined.

Richard Vague (00:10:35) - It's in an urban environment, become an expense rather than a benefit. So that alone accounts for the deceleration. And then you have folks that are getting married later, having kids later, and you simply can't have as many kids when those two things are true. So it's a combination of events, and there aren't that many places left that have higher birth rates. And even in Africa it's declining or decelerating. So the world's just moving in that direction.

Keith Weinhold (00:11:06) - Yeah. It's really once we see the urbanization trend in a nation, what lags behind that are slowing birth rates, oftentimes birth rates that don't even meet death rates in some places. It kind of goes back to the Thomas Malthus thing again, if you will. When you don't have a family farm, you don't need nine kids to milk the cows and shuck the corn and everything else like that. You might live in a smaller urban apartment.

Richard Vague (00:11:33) - But we're all just has it been thinking about this issue? And it's upon us now, and it's going to change everything from governments to handling debts to infrastructure to growth itself.

Richard Vague (00:11:48) - So we need to start thinking about this issue much more deeply than we have.

Keith Weinhold (00:11:54) - Is there any way that an economy can grow with a declining population, and how bad will it get?

Richard Vague (00:12:02) - An economy will obviously struggle to grow if the population is declining, but the per capita GDP and increase as population declines. And in fact, we might see that early on in a population decline situation. I think that's actually been true in Japan over the last few years. The population is down, but GDP per capita is actually increasing slightly. So I think it's longer term. When you talk about trying to service the debt that we have amassed with the smaller population, that we're really going to have issues.

Keith Weinhold (00:12:41) - Talk to us more about that. The servicing the debt part of a declining population.

Richard Vague (00:12:48) - The debt doesn't shrink on its own, you know, so it tends to grow because, you know, it's accruing interest.

Keith Weinhold (00:12:54) - It always seems to go one direction.

Richard Vague (00:12:56) - It always pretty much only goes in one direction. So it's pretty simple.

Richard Vague (00:13:00) - If you have growing debt and I'm talking about public debt and private debt, and you have a declining base to service that, you have more people in retirement who are not paying as much in the way of taxes. It's going to increase the challenge, and it may in fact, increase it considerably. As we look at a few decades.

Keith Weinhold (00:13:21) - We need productivity to pay down debt that's more difficult to do in the declining population. We talk about technological advancements, some things that we cannot foresee. Did you sort of lead on to the fact that some of this might help us be more productive, even in a declining population, whether that's machine learning or robotics or AI? What are your thoughts there?

Richard Vague (00:13:45) - That's something that's been predicted for quite some time. You know, if we look back not too far ago, economists were wondering what we were going to do with all of our free time, right? Because, you know, automate. And this goes back to the 20s and 30s and 40s what we do with all our free time.

Richard Vague (00:14:01) - So we again have conversations along those lines. You know, it's not inconceivable that we could all be sitting there, you know, sipping our Mai tais, and the machines could be doing all the work for us. And servicing debt might be easy in that scenario, I doubt it. I don't think that's what's going to happen.

Keith Weinhold (00:14:19) - The more technology advances, the more complex society gets. That continues to create jobs in places where we cannot see them. I mean, case in point here, in the year 2024, we're more technologically advanced than we've ever been in human history, obviously. Yet here in the United States, we have more open jobs than we even do people to fill them.

Richard Vague (00:14:39) - Yeah. And I think one of the things that all of this does is increase the march of inequality. You have folks that master the technology become engineers, software engineers and the like that are going to be the huge beneficiaries of these trends. But folks that don't have the skill sets aren't going to benefit from these trends.

Richard Vague (00:15:01) - And even though in aggregate, we may continue to see per capita GDP increase, our track record over the last few decades would suggest that inequality will increase just as markedly as it has in the past, so we'll have some societal issues to face.

Keith Weinhold (00:15:19) - That's concerning as inflation. Continues to exacerbate inequality simultaneously, which we'll talk about later. But population decline is of concern to us as real estate investors because of course, we need rent paying tenants. So this could be pretty concerning to some. You've probably seen a lot of the same models that I have, Richard, let me know. In the United States, population is projected to increase for several decades by every single model that I've seen, maybe even until or after the year 2100.

Richard Vague (00:15:53) - The projection is by 2050, we'll have about 380 something million people, and today we're at 330 million people. So clearly the population is going to continue. It's just kind of the relative portion of those populations. And what I think we're seeing, and you as real estate investors would know this better than I, is a shift towards the type of real estate out there.

Richard Vague (00:16:19) - Right? So instead of new homeowner development, it's retirement development that I think is going to be the higher growth sector with the real estate industry.

Keith Weinhold (00:16:31) - And we're surely going to see fewer offices be built, something that may never come back. And then when we talk about things like birth rates and population growth rates here in the real estate world, I sort of think of there as being a lag effect. It's really not so much about today's births in the United States, because people often rent their first place in their 20s, and then the average age of a first time homebuyer is an all time record high 36. And all those people are going to need housing into old age as well. So to me, it's sort of about, oh, well, how many people were born from the 1940s to the 1990s?

Richard Vague (00:17:10) - Well, there's a very useful tool that's pretty easily available called the Population Pyramid. You can find that on the CIA World Factbook site for every country and including the United States. And it shows exactly what you're talking about, which is the number of folks, you know, between 0 and 10 years old and into 20 years old and so forth.

Richard Vague (00:17:32) - So you can kind of make reasonable projections about the near term based on the data that the CIA World Factbook is kind enough for by I believe the UN has this data as well, so you can make informed judgments about the very thing you're talking about here, which is how many folks are in their 20s to over the next ten years versus the last ten years.

Keith Weinhold (00:17:54) - Yeah, that's reassuring to real estate investors to know that we expect several decades of population growth in the United States. However, it may be slowing growth. So we talked about births, I mentioned deaths. Well, you tell us a bit more about immigration, something else that can be very difficult to project here in the real estate world that we have a popular analyst called John Byrne's research and Consulting. Their data shows that we had 3.8 million Americans added to our population last year, much of it through immigration. That's a jump of more than 1%, an all time record in our 248 year history in one year alone. So can you tell us, at least in the United States, a bit more about immigration in the calculus for population projections? Richard.

Richard Vague (00:18:42) - Immigration is a huge factor in the demographics of every country in the US, from a pure population growth standpoint as benefited by in-migration, including illegal and migration. That is a positive comparison versus a lot of countries that are either more restrictive art is desirable destinations for immigration and the life. So it has benefited us from a pure population standpoint. But what we clearly see is there are cultural ramifications that are difficult for us to deal with. We have the percent of folks that are in the United States that were born in another country. It's the highest it's been, I think, at least in a century or more and perhaps ever, that is really difficult for the general population to absorb. We see this in the headlines every day. We see it the concern, we see it in the political rhetoric. It's a real issue. So you have a very real conflict between the economic benefits of immigration versus the cultural divisions that that immigration creates. And that's not going to be easy to digest or to resolve. I think we probably end up continuing to compromise, but it continues to be a political lightning rod right into the foreseeable future.

Keith Weinhold (00:20:14) - And there are so many factors here. Where's our future immigrant diaspora? Is it in places in Latin America like Guatemala? In Honduras, in Colombia. And are those people going to come from there? So there are a lot of factors, many of which aren't very predictable, to take a look at our future population growth rate in the United States. We're talking with economic futurist, author and Pennsylvania's former secretary of banking and Securities, Richard Moore, and we come back on the affliction of inflation. This is general education. I'm your host, Keith Weintraub. Role under this specific expert with income property, you need Ridge lending Group and MLS 42056 in grey history, from beginners to veterans. They provided our listeners with more mortgages than anyone. It's where I get my own loans for single family rentals up to four Plex's. Start your pre-qualification and chat with President Charlie Ridge personally. They'll even customize a plan tailored to you for growing your portfolio. Start at Ridge Lending group.com Ridge lending group.com. You know, I'll just tell you, for the most passive part of my real estate investing, personally, I put my own dollars with Freedom Family Investments because their funds pay me a stream of regular cash flow in returns, or better than a bank savings account, up to 12%.

Keith Weinhold (00:21:44) - Their minimums are as low as 25 K. You don't even need to be accredited for some of them. It's all backed by real estate and that kind of love. How the tax benefit of doing this can offset capital gains and your W-2 jobs income. And they've always given me exactly their stated return paid on time. So it's steady income, no surprises while I'm sleeping or just doing the things I love. For a little insider tip, I've invested in their power fund to get going on that text family to 66866. Oh, and this isn't a solicitation. If you want to invest where I do, just go ahead and text family to six, 686, six.

Speaker 4 (00:22:33) - This is author Jim Rickards. Listen to get Rich education with Keith Reinhold and don't quit your day dream.

Keith Weinhold (00:22:49) - Welcome back to get Rich. So we're talking with economic futurist, author and Pennsylvania's former secretary of banking and securities. His name is Richard Vague. And Richard, before the break we talked about how many more people are there going to be on this earth.

Keith Weinhold (00:23:03) - We know for sure that there's also the growth of the number of dollars in this nation. So we're talking about inflation here. You talk an awful lot about the affliction of inflation and the history of inflation. And I think a lot of people when we talk about the history of inflation, maybe we should begin chronologically. They don't realize that inflation wasn't always with us. Since the birth of this nation.

Richard Vague (00:23:30) - We haven't had that many episodes of inflation. We look at it pretty hard. We see nine what we would consider nine instances of high inflation. Most of those have come with war. So we certainly had that. The Revolutionary War right of 1812 and the Civil War and World War one and World War two. But inflation has been brief, contained and rare in the history of Western developed nations. We had our bout in the 1970s that related to OPEC and the constraint of the oil supply. It normally relates to the decimation or constraint of the supplies and the supply chain. We saw it again with Covid.

Richard Vague (00:24:17) - A lot of folks consider it to be a monetary phenomenon. We just don't see that in the data.

Keith Weinhold (00:24:24) - So we talk about what causes these bouts of inflation. You talked about nine of them. Well, he talked to us more about why wars often create inflation. Of course we're trying to create a lot of supplies during wars, but they tend to be only certain types of supplies.

Richard Vague (00:24:40) - World War One is a great example. Probably, you know, two thirds of the farms in Europe were decimated. So for a couple of years, there simply weren't the kind of crops that are needed for nutrition being grown in Europe, we Corps and the like. So the US had to, frankly, export something on the order of 20% of its crops to Europe to prevent starvation. Well, it's pretty easy to see that if the US if the supply has been decimated in Europe, we're having to ship, you know, a huge chunk of our crops to Europe, that the price of wheat and corn would go up.

Richard Vague (00:25:21) - And that's exactly what happened. It's also pretty easy to see that as those farms came back on stream and began growing crops, that the price of wheat and corn would drop. And that's exactly what happened. So you have this relatively short lived period of 2 or 3 years where the decimation of supplies caused inflation, and that's fairly typical.

Keith Weinhold (00:25:45) - Supply falls, demand exceeds supply and prices rise much like what happened with those Covid shortages, as you mentioned, what are the other major causes of inflation other than supply shortages that have caused these nine bouts of inflation?

Richard Vague (00:26:03) - Well, let's talk about major developed countries, which I would include Western Europe, the United States predominantly. That's pretty much the only thing that has brought sustained high inflation is supply constraint. We don't see instances of high government debt growth or money supply growth ever causing inflation. Now when you get to smaller countries where they are borrowing in a foreign currency, where they have a trade deficit and where they yield to the temptation of printing too much money, and I don't mean by printing, we use that term in the United States, and it's absolutely a fictitious term.

Richard Vague (00:26:50) - We don't print money in the United States. We have it printed money since the Civil War. So in a third world country, they can actually go to a printing press and start paying with cash for government supply needs. And you can see it very clearly when it happens and it very quickly leads to high inflation. You know, this is in places like Argentina and the like. So that would be the big issue in these countries. It's they borrow at a foreign currency. They have a trade deficit. They yield to the temptation of actually printing currency. It can get out of control pretty fast.

Keith Weinhold (00:27:26) - It feels immoral. As soon as more currency is printed, it dilutes the purchasing power surreptitiously of all those people that are holding that currency. What about Richard? The government printing. And we can put printing in quote marks, say, $1 trillion to fund a new infrastructure program. A technically that is inflation if we. Go back to the root definition of inflation, inflation being an expansion of the money supply.

Keith Weinhold (00:27:54) - But talk to us about how something like that does or does not dilute the purchasing power to fund, for example, a big infrastructure program.

Richard Vague (00:28:03) - Well, it just never happens in Western developed economies. And one of the reasons it doesn't happen is the government issuance of debt does not increase the money supply by a nickel. If the government issues debt, it actually withdraws or shrinks the money supply because folks like you and me would buy the government security that reduces the number of deposits in the system. The government immediately turns around and spends exactly that amount. So the size of the money supply from government debt projects remains exactly the same. It doesn't increase.

Keith Weinhold (00:28:42) - Does that act, however, increase our total absolute amount of national debt, which is currently $35 trillion?

Richard Vague (00:28:51) - Of course it does. Absolutely. But the increase in our debt is money largely played to the households. So what normally happens is when the government's dead increases, household wealth increases by that amount or a greater amount. So take the pandemic. In a three year period, government debt increased by $8 trillion, which means its net worth declined by $1 trillion.

Richard Vague (00:29:18) - Well, households were the beneficiaries of that household net worth in that three year period increased by $30 trillion. So, you know, net net, of course it increases their debt, but it dollar for dollar typically increases household wealth.

Keith Weinhold (00:29:33) - That wealth effect can feel great for consumers and families in the short term. But doesn't increasing their income substantially in a short period of time drive up prices and create this debase purchasing power of the dollar?

Richard Vague (00:29:46) - If we got our little green eyed shades out and went to try to find examples of that, we got a database of 49 countries that constituted 91% of the world's GDP. We just wouldn't find examples of that. And in the US, it's very easy to measure that. The number you're looking for is GDP. And we don't really see big cuts in GDP. You know, a wild swing in GDP would be 3.5% versus 2.5%. That's not a factor in any observable way. And what happens in inflation.

Keith Weinhold (00:30:19) - Richard, the term that I think about with what's happened the past few years in this Covid wave of inflation is the word noticeable.

Keith Weinhold (00:30:27) - People don't really talk about it. Consumers, families, they don't talk about inflation much when it's near its fed 2% target until it becomes noticeable. And now it's so obvious with what you see at the grocery store. So it's really infiltrated the American psyche in a way that it didn't five years ago.

Richard Vague (00:30:45) - Inflation, even moderate inflation, is a highly consequential thing to the average American consumer. And two things happened to increase our inflation. Covid supply chains decimated supplies and kicked up prices. And then a second thing happened that was even more consequential. And that is Russia invaded Ukraine. And you had two countries that were, if you add them together among the largest providers or suppliers of oil and wheat, and almost instantly the price of oil and wheat and other goods skyrocketed. It was those two things, Covid, plus the invasion of Ukraine that drove our inflation up to 9% in June of 2022. Now, in July, it dropped to 3% and it stayed at 3% ever since. But we had already driven prices up in the prior year or two.

Richard Vague (00:31:49) - And those prices even though the increases have moderated, those prices haven't come down right.

Keith Weinhold (00:31:55) - Nor will.

Richard Vague (00:31:55) - They. Now we have, you know, the threat of war again. So, you know, the price of oil just touch $90. Again, I would argue that, you know, it's going to be hard to see inflation come down. Much for like that 3 to 4 range because of the geopolitical situation. And one other thing that I would suggest is holding up inflation. And that's the Federal Reserve's interest rate. You know, if inflation is a measure of how expensive things are, high interest rates make things more expensive, right?

Keith Weinhold (00:32:27) - It's an irony.

Richard Vague (00:32:28) - It's almost exactly the opposite of what the orthodoxy at the Federal Reserve studies or believed. For whatever reason, if you're at an in an apartment in the apartment owner has leveraged their purchase of the apartments by 50 or 70 or 90% and their interest bill goes up, guess what? They have to. Charge you higher rate. I think some meaningful component of the stubbornness of inflation relates directly to the Federal Reserve's persistent interest rates.

Richard Vague (00:33:00) - I think the best thing they could do would be to pull interest rates down 1 or 200 basis points.

Keith Weinhold (00:33:07) - Well, that's interesting because the fed funds rate is pretty close to their long term average, and we still got inflation higher than their target. So tell us more about what you think is the best way out of this somewhat higher inflationary environment that we're still in Richard.

Richard Vague (00:33:22) - Well two things. I think the geopolitical impact on oil prices is you. And I think the interest rate impact, particularly on real estate prices, is huge. Those are the two things holding up inflation. So if you wanted to improve inflation, you'd lower interest rates and then you'd run around the world trying to calm down these hot spots. And you'd have 2% inflation.

Keith Weinhold (00:33:47) - Coming from some people's point of view, including the Fed's. If you lower interest rates you would feel inflationary pressures. So then go ahead and debunk this because the conventional wisdom is when you lower interest rates. Oh well now for consumers, you don't incentivize them to save as much because they wouldn't be earning much interest.

Keith Weinhold (00:34:06) - And if rates to borrow become lower, then you're incentivizing more people to borrow and spend and run up prices in fuel the economy. So what's wrong with that model?

Richard Vague (00:34:16) - Well, there's no empirical support for it. In 1986, when inflation dropped to 2%, interest rates were in the highest interest rates had been coming down by, you know, almost a thousand basis points over the prior 3 or 4 years. Money supply growth was 9%. So the two things the fed says are most the biggest contributors to rising inflation were both amply present when inflation dropped to 2%. So I just can't find any data to support the Fed's theory. And by the way, that data is not esoteric. That data is really readily available. You and I can go look at it. It's not a complicated equation. But over the last 40 years, in what at the age I call the great debt explosion, aggregate debt and the economy in 1981 was 125% of GDP. Today it's 260% of GDP and almost that entire 40 something year span.

Richard Vague (00:35:21) - Inflation and interest rates went down. Somebody, somewhere is going to have to show me the evidence for me to believe what the fed is canonical, which is almost a sacred balloon.

Keith Weinhold (00:35:33) - Well, that's a good look at history. In fact, something I say on the show often is let's look at history. And what really happens over having a hunch on how we think that things should proceed. You mentioned some inflation figures there. Why don't we wrap up inflation? Richard was talking about today's inflation measures. We've got the producer price index, the PPI, the widely cited CPI, which I recognize what you were stating earlier. And then of course there's the Fed's preferred measure, the core PCE, the core personal consumption expenditures. Richard, it's also funny to me when any measure is called core, it's core when they remove the food and energy inputs because those things are said to be too volatile. And of course, not only is food and energy essential, but what's more core than that? So perhaps the core rate should be called the peripheral rate.

Keith Weinhold (00:36:22) - But in any case, do you have any comments on the measures of inflation that are used today?

Richard Vague (00:36:28) - It's like you say, it's everything you just mentioned and more, because they're not just core inflation. There's something called super core, which I think is probably even more peripheral. Right. And I like your terminology better than the Fed's, but there's a lot of things to look at right now. They're all kind of coalescing around this at a low to mid 3% range. We got a new number coming out. It'll probably, you know here in the next few days. And it'll probably be a little bit higher than the last number, but we're talking about the difference to a 3.3% and 3.5%. And to me there's no difference between those two numbers. We were at 9%, as we just said, in June of 2022. And we're at a moderate level of inflation now after having suffered a rise in prices. It's not going to disappear. It's not fun, it's not comfortable, but it's moderate rabble.

Richard Vague (00:37:22) - It's not a big drought.

Keith Weinhold (00:37:24) - What's the right level of inflation in your opinion?

Richard Vague (00:37:28) - Okay. Anything fundamentally wrong with the the 2% number that the fed saw I think, you know, at 3 to 4% were probably on the high end of, of what might be considered acceptable. But again, it's not the fact that it's 3% that's the problem. It's the fact that it was 6 to 9% for a couple of years. Yeah, that's the problem. It'll get take a while for everything to adjust to that. In the meantime, you know, with all bets are all that you know, there's if these wars get further out of control and we see 90, $200 oil prices again, we're only about we're 50% more efficient users of oil today than were were in the 1970s. We're still a little bit over dependent.

Keith Weinhold (00:38:11) - Here at gray. I espouse how in everyday investor they can do more than merely hedge themselves against inflation, much like a homeowner with no mortgage would merely hedge themselves. But you can actually profit from inflation with a term that I've trademarked as the Inflation Triple Crown.

Keith Weinhold (00:38:27) - I'd like to know what you think about it. The inflation Triple Crown means that you win with inflation three ways at the same time, and all that you need to do in order to make that happen is get a fixed rate mortgage on an income property. The asset price increase is the inflation hedge. The debt debasement on your mortgage loan, that's an inflation profiting center. Is inflation debases that down while the tenant makes the payment. And then thirdly, now rents might only track inflation, but your cash flow is actually a profit center over time too because it outpaces inflation. Since as the investor your biggest monthly expense that principal and interest stays fixed and inflation cannot touch that. That's the inflation triple Crown. It's available to almost anyone. You don't need any degree, your certification or real estate license. What are your thoughts on that? Profiting from inflation the way we do here I think you're absolutely correct.

Richard Vague (00:39:22) - And I think you put it very, very well. And that's not just a trend at the individual property level.

Richard Vague (00:39:28) - We studied macroeconomics and we look at aggregate real estate values. And frankly, real estate values rise as debt to GDP rises. The more money there is, the more my dollars are chasing real estate and the higher real estate prices will go. So it's absolutely been the gin to put it into numbers in 1980 household. Well, this a percent of GDP was about 350%. Today it's almost 600% most household wealth that in the form of just two things real estate and stocks in somewhat equal measure, that's 80 or 90% of also. Well, so if you wanted to make money over the last 40 years and presumably over the next 40 real estate, one of the two places you could go.

Keith Weinhold (00:40:24) - Well, Richard, as we wind down here, you run a group that predicts financial crises. So I'd be remiss to let you go without asking you about it. We've had a prolonged inverted yield curve, and that's been a terrific track record as a recession predictor. Is a financial crisis imminent? Tell us your thoughts.

Richard Vague (00:40:41) - No, it's not. The predictor of financial crises is a rapid rise in private sector debt in ratio to GDP. We saw it skyrocket in the mid 2000 and we got a crisis in zero eight. We saw it skyrocket in the 1980s and we got the crisis in 87. We saw it skyrocket in Japan in the late 1980s. And you got the crisis of the 90s. We saw it skyrocketed in the 1920s and we got the Great Depression. That is the predictor. You know, we've studied that across major economies over 200 years. There really are exceptions to that as it relates to financial crises. Our numbers right now on the private debt side have been very flat, and they've really been very flat since 2008. They actually got a little bit better in that period, and they've been very flat over the last few years. We're not looking at a financial crisis in the United States. Other parts can't say that China is looking at a they're well into a massive real estate crisis there. We see companies there crumbling, declaring bankruptcy.

Richard Vague (00:41:53) - That's because they've had runaway private sector debt in China for the last ten years. And there's a few other countries that are facing that as well.

Keith Weinhold (00:42:02) - A lot of Chinese overbuilding there during that run up to, well, if you, the follower, are into using history over hunches to help you predict the future, Richard Baig really is a terrific resource for that, as you can tell. So, Richard, why don't you let our audience know how they can follow you and learn more?

Richard Vague (00:42:22) - You're so kind to say those words. We hope we provide something of value. You can get our weekly video if you go to join Dot Tycho's group.org and Tycho's is spelled E, ICOs, ICOs group. Or we send out a weekly five minute video because if you're like me, you have a short attention span and brevity is the soul of wit. I also have a book that came out recently called The Paradox of Debt. Yeah. Which, you know, covers a lot of the themes we've talked about here. You know, it'd be an honor to have anyone to pick up either.

Keith Weinhold (00:42:58) - Well, Richard, it's been a terrific discussion on both population decline and inflation. It's been great having you back on the show.

Richard Vague (00:43:05) - You have a great show. It's a privilege to be part of it. Thank you very much.

Keith Weinhold (00:43:15) - Yeah, big thanks to Richard Vague. Today he hits things from a different angle. With population decline perhaps not taking place in the US until the year 2100. Of course, we need to add years to that. Real estate investors might not have falling population growth in that crucial household formation demographic age. Then until the year 2125, well, that would be 100 more years of growth from this point. And yeah, I pushed him on our inflation chart somewhat. Richard isn't the first person, though I have heard others maintain that lower interest rates also lower inflation, where most tend to believe that the opposite is true, including the fed. In any case, wars drive inflation because they create supply shortages. That was true over 100 years ago when World War one and today with Russia, Ukraine.

Keith Weinhold (00:44:17) - I mean, is there any one factor that drives price increases more than supply shortages? The short supply of real estate itself is what keeps driving prices. And Richard asks us to look where some don't. That is that real estate values rise as debt to GDP rises. In his opinion, there is no financial crisis imminent. We need to see a rapid rise in private sector debt in proportion to GDP first. And you know what's remarkable about this economic slowdown or recession that still hasn't come, but it's been erroneously predicted by so many. It's the fact that recessions are often self-fulfilling prophecies. People have called on a recession for the last year or two. And that mere forecast alone that tends to make real estate investors think, well, then I won't buy the property because my tenant might lose their job in a recession. And businesses don't hire when everyone says a recession is coming. That's exactly how a recession becomes self-fulfilling. And despite two years of that, it still hasn't happened. That's what's remarkable. Anyone sitting on the sideline keeps losing out again.

Keith Weinhold (00:45:37) - You can follow Richard. Big Tycho's is spelled Tycho's. Follow a joint Tycho's group.org. Richard and I talked some more outside of our interview here, and he had a lot of compliments about the show. In fact, more compliments than any guest has given in a while. He had not heard of our show before last year. I'm in Philadelphia somewhat regularly and I might hit him up the next time I'm there. We'll get lunch or something. Check out Gray in Spanish at Get Rich education comma. Espanyol. Thank you for tuning in today where our episode was Bigger Picture education. Next week's show will be substantially more hands on real estate. I'm Keith Wayne a little bit. Don't quit your day dream.

Speaker 5 (00:46:24) - Nothing on this show should be considered specific, personal or professional advice. Please consult an appropriate tax, legal, real estate, financial or business professional for individualized advice. Opinions of guests are their own. Information is not guaranteed. All investment strategies have the potential for profit or loss. The host is operating on behalf of get Rich education LLC exclusively.

Keith Weinhold (00:46:52) - The preceding program was brought to you by your home for wealth building. Get rich education.com.

Direct download: GREepisode498_.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 4:00am EST

Mon, 15 April 2024

No one gets wealthy from a high salary. Wealth is acquired by owning things.

But how can you own MANY things without much money? I discuss it.

Learn how to use major banks (Chase, Wells Fargo) to fuel your wealth and retirement when you’re young.

Debt is like fire. Kids will burn down the house with fire. Adults will use fire (debt) to produce prudent leverage and outsized returns.

High salaries don’t create wealth due to: lost time, no leverage, few tax benefits, and entrapment due to sunk education costs.

I sat down with a conventional financial advisor. Things got interesting.

Learn why Western US homes cost more than Eastern US homes. This fact confounds most real estate pros. I break down 8 reasons.

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496: The Housing Market’s Future—Trends and Predictions

Complete episode transcript:

Welcome to GRE! I’m your host, Keith Weinhold.

Don’t make this giant wealth mistake - understand why a high salary does NOT create wealth. Learn what does instead.

See how to get deep pocketed-banks like Chase & Wells Fargo build wealth for YOU.

I recently sat down with a traditional financial advisor - this got interesting. Then, why do WESTERN US homes cost more than EASTERN us homes? All today, on Get Rich Education.

Welcome to GRE! From Port Jervis, NJ to the Port of Bellingham, WA and across 188 nations worldwide, I’m Keith Weinhold and you’re listening to Get Rich Education. Welcome in!

When I grew up, I thought that people got wealthy from high salaries. I figured that I could get wealthy if I got a high salary too.

And then adulthood has proven to me that… they don’t.

People don’t get wealthy from high salaries. They get wealthy by OWNING THINGS.

Let’s break this down.

People DON’T get wealthy from high salaries.

In fact, have you ever seen THIS happen? I haven’t. I worked as an employee in both the public sector and the private sector, and I’ve been a longtime real estate investor and entrepreneur.

In fact, how would anyone even GET wealthy from a high salary?

If you’ve got a job… you’re trading your time for dollars and selling your time for money.

I used to do that too… and I actually think that everyone might get some perspective by having a taste of that. Most get that taste.

And say you’re even entrenched in the game of climbing the corporate ladder, to a higher and higher salary.

Well, first, in my experience, many job promotions get you perhaps 10 to 30% more in salary, but 2x to 4x the responsibility - that’s 200% to 400% more responsibility.

Even if there’s an edge case here, in your situation, in climbing the corporate ladder - where does that even get you in the end?

Look at your supervisor and their lifestyle. Is that what you want to be?

Look up higher at your supervisor’s supervisor. What’s their life like? Is that the life that you REALLY want?

Is that what you aspire to be - and expend so much of your most precious resources to get THERE - time, time away from your family, energy, skill, potential. Is that really it?

The answer is right in front of you!

People don’t get wealthy from high salaries. People get wealthy from OWNING THINGS. We’ll get more on how - if you have average means - on how you can OWN MANY THINGS shortly.

But first, let me address any more hangups you might have if you still think that high salaries can create wealth.

We won’t even look at, sort of, common jobs like an IT specialist or a systems analyst or a plumber.

Let’s take an edge case - a classically, high paid profession - a doctor, a surgeon, a specialist even. Highly compensated - several hundred thousand dollars in salary each year. I know some of them.

I also know a bunch of RESIDENT doctors too and I talk with them - they’re basically, finished with their formal schooling and are doctors-in-training.

They are repaying loans deep into the six figures after undergrad pre-med and after a few more years at medical school - often it seems to be $300K to $400K in debt that they have to pay back in the case of these resident doctors.

But that’s besides the point. It’s common for these specialist physicians, once they start working, to work as a doctor for, say, 58 hours a week… or 71-and-a-half hours a week.

Now I said that high salaries don’t create wealth. How wealthy are you, if after undergrad, med school, and three years of low paid residency, you finally get out, you’re in your 30s or older, and you’re working 60+ hours a week.

60+ hours a week is not MY idea of wealth and freedom at all.

You know what else, when you’ve pursued a specialty track like that, which often comes with loads of debt, you are in so deep - you’ve invested so much time & energy & chapters of your life… and DEBT into that field you CAN’T pivot to another career, even if you wanted to.

You’re trapped. Entrapment is the very opposite of wealth and freedom.

Understand, I just went out and gave an example of perhaps the highest salary type of person that I can think of… to help prove my point. Where’s that leave you?

And you’ve probably heard… the “end game” trope… about climbing the corporate ladder by now.

Yep, you spent the best years of your life climbing the corporate ladder… only to find at the end… at the top… that the ladder was leaning up against the wrong wall the whole time.

Because high salaries don’t make people wealthy, then how do people get wealthy from OWNING THINGS?

There are two main ways:

#1 - You can launch and own a business.

#2 - Real estate.

Now, launching and owning a business takes a ton of entrepreneurial ambition, risk, and you’ve got to have a novel idea - a NEW idea - that creates value for the world.

This can be a worthwhile venture… and successful entrepreneurs create value for the world with their own business. It’s terrific! It’s capitalistic! It’s turning lower use resources into higher use resources.

But unless you have your own money, you’re going to have to be scrappy and resilient for a long time. Because it’s really hard to get loans for a new business.

If you hire anyone to help you, you need to quickly produce enough income to have leftover profit - paying your overhead expenses, software subscriptions, paying your help… and having enough leftover to fuel your own lifestyle.

Household names like Apple and Facebook are one-in-a-million. You don’t have to be an Apple or Facebook. But it’s tough.

The first way is by owning a business. The second way is by owning real estate.

New businesses are unproven. Real estate is proven. Like I say, wealthy people’s money either starts out in RE or ends up in RE.

But how do you OWN much real estate? Because RE is expensive, and wealth is created by OWNING things.

With prudent loans. Because RE is proven, banks will GIVE you loans. Lots of them. Have good credit, be credit worthy.

And… being credit worthy should be an innate trait in any virtuous human being. Because it shows that you repay the debts that you owe.

I think that when it comes to debt, debt is like fire. Don’t let a little kid play with fire. They’ll burn down the house.

Leave fire to adults. They’ll use it to HEAT the house.

Leave debt to the adults. Use debt to fuel your lifestyle, fuel your ambitions, and fuel your opportunities. To the scarcity mindset of “all debt is bad”, here at GRE we say, you’re an adult. Grow up.

Learn… that debt is Leverage… and your debt isn’t paid back by you at all. Tenants and inflation both RELENTLESSLY and INCESSANTLY pay it down for you, until they pay it OFF for you… if you want.

So then, who’s really funding your wealth, enabling you to own things?

Who really funded my wealth from nothing, enabling me to own things?

Who funded my retirement? Leverage… from Chase Bank, Wells Fargo, Bank of America, and other banks. They all give you the opportunity to let THEM fund your wealth for you.

Now, I’m going to explain a core GRE principle here. But so that this isn’t repetitive for the longtime listener, I’ll use a NEW analogy for you, here.

Look, let’s say that you’re a kid. You don’t know how to responsibly use fire or debt. In fact, you’re still just 4’ tall.

But learning about leverage is like… seeing the light.

Now, with the sunlight, a 4’ tall kid can now cast a 20’ tall shadow. You look like a giant now.

5-to-1 leverage made you, not just grow up, but grow into a giant. You suddenly wield the power of a financial giant thanks to the banks.

Because with your 20% down payment, you're only putting up one-fifth of the property price.

How then, do these big banks make you a giant?

Let’s say that’s your $40K down - on a $200K income property, when the property appreciates only 4% - like RE did last year per the NAR number - you just got a 20% return.

How? Because you got a 4% return on both your $40K down… and you got a 4% return on your $160K borrowed.

Yep, the return from that $160K of borrowed bank money didn’t go to Wells Fargo, it won’t go to Chase Bank, it won’t go to Bank of America.

It ALL goes to you - because you leveraged them. That’s how you beat the banks. That’s how you build wealth.

Two years ago, when property appreciated 10% that year, you got a 50% leveraged return.

And it gets better than that. You can make income property down payments even lower than 20%, like I did when I began.

A 4’ tall kid then, that sees the light, can cast an even taller shadow than 20 feet at 5:1 leverage. A bigger giant.

Any GRE devotee knows that leveraged appreciation is one of just 5 ways you’re paid. We’re only talking about ONE here.

Sounds amazing. Some think, “There’s gotta be a catch.” There is, but it’s manageable. Leverage amplifies losses, just like gains.

Though it doesn’t happen often, RE can go down in value.

Even in a downturn, look at what happens. Between any ten-year period, nominally, you won’t find any loss of RE value in modern history… and you must manage cash flows.

So, no. This is not a 6-month plan. It’s to build wealth durably with a reliable vehicle in more like five to ten years.

It gets better. As your equity grows, harvesting it out through a cash-out refi maintains your… magnification into a financial giant, to stick with the analogy.

And every cash-out refinance that you do… is a tax-free event. Not tax-deferred. Tax-free.

You can make tax-free cash grabs, separating it out from your properties along the way, since the IRS doesn’t classify debt windfalls as taxable income, and you have a pro PM handling all the day-to-day for you, if you prefer.

Now you really know WHY, wealth is not created from high salaries. It’s created from owning things.

And you need to be more than creditworthy. You need to be strategic in building your portfolio with the right properties in the right markets.

Set up a time with one of our GRE Investment Coaches… and they help you do exactly that for free.

Either that or you can just keep believing that high SALARIES create wealth. Ha!

Now, a few weeks ago here on the show, I told you that I’ve had a sit-down meeting coming up with a conventional financial advisor - a retirement planner type of guy.

I’ve been getting their e-mails and dismissing them, for 8 or 10 years, but I always stayed subscribed.

This is from when I used to work at a State DOT - Department of Transportation.

So I finally responded & we set up a 1-hour sit-down. We did it virtually on web conferencing.

I prepared by having some things ready for him that he asked for - like my monthly cash flow statement, net worth worksheet, and he also asked I have my Soc. Sec. statement pulled up, so I had that ready.

Now, this is not the forum for espousing GRE’s proven wealth-building formula to him. No PROS-il-uh-tie-zing. proselytizing.

And, he told me that… I’m in really good shape.

He didn’t dig in with questions on my backstory, like, how were you able to retire at such a young age… or how did you amass all this?

And yes, I could retire now. I could have a while ago. I think you know that.

He was interested in knowing what the cash flow from the rental properties was. In fact, that was his first question about them. Good first question.

Interestingly, he really wanted to know how long I have to pay on my rentals. Like, when would the 30-year mortgages be paid off?

Well, gosh, they all have 20-some years to go. Most of them are clustered around 27 years to go.

He could see that I COULD pay many of them off quickly, now, if I wanted to. But he didn’t tell me that I should. Of course, I wouldn’t want to lose the leverage.

You know the most interesting question that this conventional financial advisor asked about these properties that I have all over the place, in different states and even nations?

He asked, “Do you plan to LIVE in any of these areas?”

No, I don’t plan to live in those properties or even in those areas. I pick investor-advantaged areas for investments, and live where I want to live.

Now, he encouraged me to import my financial info into their retirement portal. When I say, they, he works for a private company that administers the DOT’s retirement plan.

You know, I had previously been reluctant to do that and share all my financials with another party.

But, I’ve got to say, I’ve reconsidered and MIGHT enter it in there. It does some pretty impressive modeling and scenarios.

For the properties, you enter the address and they use Zillow estimated values.

It looks at how the graphs change when you get to the age of where any pensions and soc sec & all that enters your life.

All-in-all, maybe you thought I’d bust this guy's chops for being scarcity-minded or not about passive cash flow. But he was pretty good. It was an hour of my time well-spent, I would even say.

And again, the reason that I was able to be positioned this way comes down to… relying on compound LEVERAGE, not compound interest - casting the shadow of a 20-foot tall giant compared to when you’re a 4-foot tall child.

BTW, I do NOT consider myself retired. I remote “asset manage” my REIs and I produce this show, produce videos for our YouTube channel, write our newsletter, and write for Forbes and more… on material that is interesting to me and helps others.

Coming up straight ahead, why do homes in Western US states cost more than homes in the East?

This fact makes zero sense to most people, because areas east of the Mississippi River are more densely populated.

In fact, nearly 2/3rds live on just over 1/3rd of the land, suggesting the East should clearly be pricier.

Then how could it be opposite? It might seem weird. That’s coming up shortly.

You’re listening to Get Rich Education podcast Episode 497. That means we’re just three weeks away from a special, milestone, Episode 500.

I’ll tell ya. I sure know how to put the performance pressure on myself, don’t I? Ha!

Something here that we don’t often talk about or offer the opportunity for…

… if you’re a business owner or decision maker and would like to advertise on our platform, well, we’d like to check you out first.

Often, I use the product or service myself first.

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On air EVERY single week since 2014, some say that we were the first show to finally CLEARLY explain how RE makes ordinary people wealthy.

For advertising information and inquiries, visit, GetRichEducation.com/Ad. That’s GetRichEducation.com/A-D

More next. I’m KW. You’re listening to Get Rich Education.

A little tribute and melodic swan song to Russell Gray there.

Welcome back to Get Rich Education. I’m your host, KW.

Before returning to real estate, let’s do a quick first quarter asset class review.

It’s coming a little later than usual here. But it’s good to see what the rest of the world is doing.

Almost everywhere you look, asset prices are up, up, up.

In real estate, as housing intelligence analyst Rick Sharga & I discussed in detail here in each of the last two weeks, prices & sales volume are both up.

The S&P had its best start to a year since 2019, up 11%

The yield on the 10-yr T-note was up 26 basis points. Remember that mortgage rates move closely along with that.

Gold was up 8% to an ATH over $2,200. And gold even touched $2,300 here in Q2.

In the first quarter, oil was up 15% to $83.

Bitcoin was up 68% to $70K

And the biggest beneficiary of AI hype, Nvidia was up 88% in just the first quarter.

And this is even wilder - a little wild card for you here - for the first time ever, cocoa prices briefly surpassed $10,000 per metric ton, making the confectionary commodity more valuable than copper.

That’s what’s goin’ in the TOTAL investment world.

Why do homes out West cost more than homes in Eastern states?

This fact makes zero sense to most people, because the East is more densely populated.

According to the US Census Bureau, 64.4% of Americans live east of the Mississippi River. That’s on land that's barely more than one-third of the US - because the Mississippi doesn’t run right down the center, it’s a little to the east of center in the contiguous states.

So this means that nearly 2/3rds of people live on just over 1/3rd of the land, suggesting the East has GOT be pricier.

Well, it’s strange to many that it is, in fact, just the opposite. The West is pricier.

Now that pandemic migration and RE prices have settled, we’ve taken a fresh look at prices and this trend - which is curious to many - continues.

Let me demystify it for you.

And you saw a beautiful, colorful map that brilliantly demonstrates this. I sent it to you a few weeks ago if you’re a DQYD Letter subscriber.

Now, there are some notable exceptions to "the West is pricier", like New England and south Florida. Housing is expensive in densely populated northeastern cities.

New Mexico is an outlier as a cheap western state.

No, the West is not pricier because The Kardashians' lavish $200M total portfolio of California real estate skews the entire nation.

Here's my more, I suppose, scholarly breakdown.

Yes, one of my degrees was in Geography before I became a real estate investor.

The first reason is - NEW: The west has more new-build homes.

Higher costs of land and labor, then, had to be priced in. Eastern homes are older because it's closer to Europe's (die-A-spruh) diaspora, where the US' early immigration was heaviest.

Then there’s the factor of - the FEDS: No, not Jerome Powell’s Fed.

It’s that over 90% of federal land is located out West. No building is typically allowed here, and that makes developable land more scarce.

This helps explain why when you see huge swaths of undeveloped land when you fly over the West and think there’s boundless room for growth and sprawl, often times, there… is… not.

3-D: Maps are 2-D. The world is 3-D. Western housing is expensive because you have scenarios like port cities surrounded by mountains and high desert.

So developable land is more scarce than it seems, making demand exceed supply in more places out West than what one might think.

San Fran is confined by the bay and hills. Seattle is confined to an isthmus. Salt Lake City is next to the Wasatch Range. Alaska looks enormous, but nearly half it’s state’s population lives in the biggest city of Anchorage, which is sandwiched between water, mountains, and that aforementioned federal land.

The fourth reason, is CALIFORNIA DREAMIN'. Despite recent domestic OUT migration and The Kardashians aside, California REALLY DOES help tilt the balance.

People are attracted to SoCal's Mediterranean climate such that nearly 1-in-8 Americans are still coolin' in Cali, with a median home price of $737,700. That climate desirability drives up prices.

Much of CA also has… these layers - just myriad - codes and limits and regulations like, for example, solar panels on new construction that can add $25K to a home's cost alone.

The next reason western homes cost more than Eastern home is, what I’ll call…

DOWN BY THE RIVER:

[Play insert]

Ha! Famous classic comedy sketch there, with the late Chris Farley.

The East has the Great Lakes and more rivers.

It costs 1/12th as much to transport goods and housing materials over water than land.

That is a fact that has been stated on this show previously. It was first brought up a few years ago when we had geopolitical strategist Peter Zeihan here to discuss the “geography of real estate” with me.

A river city like Memphis is a GIGANTIC transportation hub, for example. This keeps down the costs for all kinds of consumer goods and building materials, making for a lower cost of living and, in turn, property prices.

QUAKIN': There's more seismicity out West. It costs more to BUILD to those construction standards.

For example, CA and WA are 20%+ more expensive to build than many Southeastern states. There are more fires in the Western US, tornadoes in the middle, and hurricanes in the East.

JOBS: It takes more high-paying jobs to attract new residents and get them to uproot and move to the faster-growing West. Higher incomes buy pricier homes.

The East has tons of jobs going for it too. In fact, the northeast might be the world’s most productive region - NYC, Boston, Philly, DC.

But out in Appalachia and elsewhere, there are some waning business sectors like various heavy industries and coal. But most of the ones that were going to move out, already HAVE moved out, decades go. Much of that downdrain is overwith.

The last reason is…

I CAN SEE CLEARLY NOW: The West has mountain and desert VIEWS. These can be seen from farther away than Eastern… forest and flatter areas and piedmont landscapes. The East has a lot of lake and river view properties though… and…

There they are—8 reasons why Western homes cost more than Eastern homes.

Now you know why West Virginia has million dollar homes so big that you can get lost indoors.

And in coastal Cali, it seems like a million bucks gets you little more than a ramshackled pool house.

Of course, at times, I've had to make gross generalizations about such a vast nation of 340 million people and so many variables.

Otherwise, this episode could be a few hours long. As I discussed those, you sure could think to yourself at times, “I believe there’s an EXCEPTION to that criterion.”

I want to tell you why this all MATTERS TO YOU shortly.

Yes, there is some irony here though. The western US has lands that are arid, inhospitable, and what some describe as wastelands, like four deserts.

Well, the invention of the air conditioner made those places more livable.

The West also has the most beautiful national parks, and hey, some find places in the East INhospitable, like Michigan’s Upper Peninsula in March.

Now, I like a change in seasons, coming from Pennsylvania like I do, but some don’t. You’ve got to serve real estate to where people want to own and rent.

Florida has not been thought of as a mosquito-infested swamp since last century. Today, it’s livable and desirable to many.

Now, there are some other factors in addition to the main 8 reasons I’ve mentioned, on why Western US homes cost more than Eastern US homes, from a slavery legacy to unionization and more. I’ve been hitting the big ones here.

Real estate has made more ordinary people wealthy than anything else.

When you're on our website, GRE Marketplace, and hover over the blue "INVEST" button, you'll notice that most long-term rental investor markets are in the East.

There's a reason.

Rents are strong relative to this LOW PURCHASE PRICE that I’ve discussed here.

And now you know more of the “whys” behind the Eastern US’ lower property prices. And maybe, today, I hope it's the BEST understanding you’ve ever had for why that’s the case.

We buy in strategically chosen GROWTH areas that tend to be more East than West.

And, that’s really part of the progression of this show. We began in 2014 with this podcast and other real estate investor education. We still lead with that.

But next, listeners wanted to know where they could FIND PROPERTIES conducive to our wealth-building strategy, and we added that at GRE Marketplace.

Yet, that still wasn’t enough because I noticed that some of you that wanted to build your wealth with real estate, needed to make it easier to have your questions answered, or find a lender, or insurer, or find just the right property in the right market that fits your goals.

So starting more than two years ago, we added Investment Coaching - it’s still free like everything else that we do here.

Our coaches are real people and real, direct, real estate investors just like you are… and just like I am. Our coaches simply have more EXPERIENCE doing it than most people do.

Because knowledge is not power, but knowledge plus action is power, I often like to leave you with something actionable… that’s really going to help you at the close of the show.

If you didn’t already know, you can find properties and a coach, at GREmarketplace.com

Until next week, I’m your host, KW. DQYD!

Direct download: GREepisode497_.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 4:00am EST

Mon, 8 April 2024

Get our free real estate course and newsletter: GRE Letter

Apartment construction is falling. It’s not because banks are pulling back from lending. Projects aren’t feasible for builders.

Housing market intelligence analyst Rick Sharga returns to discuss the real estate market.

We discuss: real estate price movement, affordability concerns, expected mortgage rate changes, migration, price reductions, new homes vs. existing homes.

Can anyone even find a new-build $225K detached SFH today? They’re nearly extinct.

Homebuilders are still buying down mortgage rates for you into the 4%s and 5%s at GREmarketplace.com.

America needs more SFHs, especially at the entry-level.

Apartment rents have declined a little. SFH rents are up about 3% year-over-year.

Delinquency and foreclosure activity remains low. These have a strong correlation with unemployment rates.

The volume of homes sales should increase this year, but only by perhaps 10%.

A recession is still quite possible later this year and expected to be mild.

Every region of the nation is currently experiencing residential RE price growth.

When mortgage rates fall, more new buyers than sellers are expected, pushing up property prices.

Resources mentioned:

Show Page:

GetRichEducation.com/496

Inquire about business with Rick:

CJPatrick.com

Rick Sharga on X:

@ricksharga

LinkedIn:

Rick Sharga

For access to properties or free help with a

GRE Investment Coach, start here:

Get mortgage loans for investment property:

RidgeLendingGroup.com or call 855-74-RIDGE

or e-mail: info@RidgeLendingGroup.com

Invest with Freedom Family Investments.

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495: How Recessions Impact Real Estate with Rick Sharga

Complete episode transcript:

Keith Weinhold (00:00:00) - Welcome to GRE. I'm your host, Keith Weinhold. Tons of new apartments were built last year, but that's abruptly going to change going forward. You'll learn why. Then a housing market intelligence analyst and I break down what's happening in the real estate market and the future direction of rents, prices, foreclosures, interest rates, and a lot more today on get Rich education. When you want the best real estate and finance info. The modern internet experience limits your free articles access, and it's replete with paywalls. And you've got pop ups and push notifications and cookies. Disclaimers are at no other time in history has it been more vital to place nice, clean, free content into your hands that actually adds no hype value to your life? See, this is the golden age of quality newsletters, and I write every word of ours myself. It's got a dash of humor and it's to the point to get the letter. It couldn't be more simple. Text GRE to 66866. And when you start the free newsletter, you'll also get my one hour fast real estate course completely free.

Keith Weinhold (00:01:16) - It's called the Don't Quit Your Day Dream letter and it wires your mind for wealth. Make sure you read it. Text GRE to 66866. Text GRE 266866.

Corey Coates (00:01:34) - You're listening to the show that has created more financial freedom than nearly any show in the world. This is get rich education.

Keith Weinhold (00:01:50) - Welcome to grow from Alexandria, Egypt, to Alexandria, Virginia, and across 188 nations worldwide. I'm Keith Weinhold, holding your inside get rich education. I'm grateful to have you here. A few weeks ago, I discussed all the apartment buildings that were constructed last year. One thing that you'll often hear out there today is that apartment construction is now falling because banks are pulling back on construction lending. But no, it's really not quite that simple. In fact, that's not even the top reason for construction delays now and going forward with apartments. The number one reason for the delays today is that the project is not economically feasible at this time. That's what the NMC tells us. All right. So what does that really mean? Well, it means that projects aren't penciling out.

Keith Weinhold (00:02:44) - In other words, apartment developers, they can't generate the returns that they need to justify the project to their capital partners, those that are funding the building. And this is, by the way, not about greedy developers, because contrary to some of the noise, it's the fact that developers do not self-fund their projects. They get the money from others. So yeah, it's the developer's job to convince investors and lenders to inject that capital. And that is just harder to do right now. Despite developer's best efforts and higher rates are obviously still contributing to the problem. It's not so much that the construction financing is not available, because for residential, it's often there. It's available. The thing is, is that apartment mortgage terms and rates are way less favorable than they were a couple of years ago, as we all know. So developers, I mean, they're paying a higher interest rate then. And you therefore need higher rent to cover that higher interest rate unless you can cut a lot of costs elsewhere and in apartments, you're also getting a lower loan to value ratio.

Keith Weinhold (00:03:55) - So that means developers, they therefore need to raise even more equity in order to cover that gap. And what's happened is a lot of the equity that's shifted away from brand new ground up apartment development, and instead it's gone over into chasing potential lease up distressed deals, properties that are already out there and are having some problems. So that's where the apartment money is moving right now. Not so much to new developers and builders also aren't building many apartments this year because construction costs remain a problem. Some materials got cheaper, others didn't. One bright spot is that construction labor that is getting easier to find. But yet the actual labor cost that really hasn't dropped. Property insurance is higher too, so these rising expenses, that means apartment projects are not penciling out for builders and then apartment rents. They're just not rising that much. That doesn't help. So it's hard for it to rise, since so many were built last year and the year before. They're in the apartment world. But obviously the long term demand is for just about all residential housing.

Keith Weinhold (00:05:11) - That demand. Is there loads of long term demand for apartments, condos, single family homes, co-ops, modular homes, mobile homes, duplexes, triplexes, fourplex container homes, row houses, farmhouses, penthouses, outhouses. I think you get the idea. The demand is there. Residential is the resilient spot, and it's all about where you want to get in. And speaking of homebuilders and finding a smart place to get in, it's important to share with you the good news that homebuilders are still buying down your interest. Right for you. Now the third year rate, it hit 8% last year. And Non-owner occupied property costs a little more. So it was nearly 9% on income property. It's come down off that as we know it's been around seven lately. But see here at GREwe work with builders that are still buying down your interest rate into the fives and sometimes still into the fours on new construction, single family homes, up to four plex and sometimes larger in Florida, Alabama and elsewhere. I mean, that is just the best deal going for you today to have an income producing new build property in the path of growth at 4 to 1, leverage to 5 to 1 leverage and.

Keith Weinhold (00:06:46) - Your mortgage in the fives or less, and we'll help you find the real deals within that. To connect with a great investment coach at great marketplace.com. I think you'll be glad you did. Now, today, if somehow I could use a time machine to write a letter back to my 2020 self and inform myself about what's going to happen in the housing market for the next 4 or 5 years? And I had to keep this note to myself short. I would have written that everything is going to shoot way up, rents up, prices up, interest rates up, expenses up, inflation up. Well, now that nearly all of those run ups have settled into place, we can draw a clearer picture of where we think the real estate market is going to be positioned in the future. Our guest has just freshened things up and he's got the latest in the property market all updated for us. I do two with my own research. You'll like this. It's our housing intelligence analyst guests and I. Straight ahead.

Keith Weinhold (00:07:55) - I'm Keith Weinhold. You're listening to get Rich education.

You know, I'll just tell you, for the most passive part of my real estate investing, personally, I put my own dollars with Freedom Family Investments because their funds pay me a stream of regular cash flow in returns, or better than a bank savings account, up to 12%. Their minimums are as low as 25 K. You don't even need to be accredited for some of them. It's all backed by real estate and that kind of love. How the tax benefit of doing this can offset capital gains and your W-2 jobs income. And they've always given me exactly their stated return paid on time. So it's steady income, no surprises while I'm sleeping or just doing the things I love. For a little insider tip, I've invested in their power fund to get going on that text family to 66866. Oh, and this isn't a solicitation. If you want to invest where I do, just go ahead and text family to 66866. Role under the specific expert with income property, you need Ridge Lending Group and MLS for 256 injury history from beginners to veterans.

Keith Weinhold (00:09:15) - They provided our listeners with more mortgages than anyone. It's where I get my own loans for single family rentals up to four Plex's. Start your pre-qualification and chat with President Caeli Ridge. Personally, they'll even customize a plan tailored to you for growing your portfolio. Start at Ridge Lending group.com Ridge lending group.com.

Kristin Tate (00:09:42) - This is author Kristin Tate. Listen to get Rich education with Keith Weinhold. Don't quit your day dream.

Keith Weinhold (00:09:59) - Hey what has not been a very long goodbye. Just like last week when we discussed the economy this week we have the return of the C.J. Patrick Company's Rick Sharga, an extraordinary housing intelligence analyst, as we more specifically cover the real estate market. And if you're on video, you'll have the benefit of seeing some charts as well. Rick. Welcome back. Good to be back, Keith. Long time no see. Yeah, it hasn't been so long. What are your overall thoughts with the housing market? Last week we largely talked about a resilient economy potentially with some headwinds. Yeah we did.

Keith Weinhold (00:10:32) - And I think we're one of the things we left off on was the impact that the Federal Reserve had had on the mortgage market and the housing market. We probably start there. When you look at what's gone on, and just to show you how random all of this can feel sometimes this is a snapshot of mortgage rates from March 12th. And mortgage rates were trading at about 6.92% for a 30 year fixed rate loan.

Rick Sharga (00:10:56) - The most recent number I saw was about 7.1%. And as I mentioned to you and your listeners last time, I expect until the Federal Reserve makes its first fed funds rate cut, we're going to see mortgages trade right around 7% between 6.75 and 7.25%. This has made a big difference in the market because it has limited affordability for literally millions of prospective home buyers. That's makes for a difficult situation for people looking to buy or sell homes, but it also presents millions of rental property opportunities because these people need to live somewhere and they've voted themselves off the island temporarily. They just can't afford to buy a house.

Rick Sharga (00:11:41) - And you see that in terms of the reduction in number of mortgage applications that are being made. So if the Mortgage Bankers Association tracks the number of people that apply for loans, if you went back to December when mortgage rates dipped just a little bit, we saw a run up of loan applications, and as soon as they went back up to seven, we saw that number fall off. It's a very, very rate sensitive market. We'll talk a little bit about some of the implications of that as we move ahead, Keith. But the weak affordability, the higher interest rates, the continuing high home prices led to a very, very weak year in 2023. In terms of overall home sales, we ended the year with about 3.9 million existing homes sold. That's the lowest number of homes sold in a year in a quarter century. Yeah, even lower than we saw in the Great Recession. And December was the 28th consecutive month where we sold fewer properties than we sold the year before.

Keith Weinhold (00:12:39) - So a contraction in the number of sales, although prices appreciated last year.

Rick Sharga (00:12:44) - Yeah, we'll talk about that this year. I'd been hopeful that we'd be a little bit of a better start. January and February were both up in terms of home sales on a month over month basis, but continued this trend of lower sales on a year over year basis. We're looking at 30 consecutive months where we sold fewer properties than we sold the prior year. As a result of this.

Keith Weinhold (00:13:05) - Supply crash, that really began about four years ago.

Rick Sharga (00:13:08) - It's partly supplied as partly costs, that affordability. We really can't overestimate the impact that affordability has had. But you're right in terms of inventory and in fact, a good segue, it's almost like you'd seen this before, Keith. Inventory is up significantly from last year, about 24% higher than it was a year ago, according to some data from Altos Research. But it's still only running about half of 2019 levels. So in a normal market, we would have about a six month supply of homes available for sale in our market today, we're looking at somewhere between two and a half and three months supply.

Rick Sharga (00:13:44) - That lack of supply with some pent up demand is one of the reasons we have seen prices continue to be very healthy, and we haven't seen the the price crash that all the snake oil salesmen on YouTube comments. As of mid-March, about 513,000 homes available for sale, again, about 24% higher. Than last year when the numbers were just dismal. We normally do see more inventory coming to market this time of year. We'll not get anywhere near where we were back in, you know, years like 2019, 2020. But it wouldn't be a surprise to see a little bit more inventory coming to market.

Keith Weinhold (00:14:21) - Now, Rick, for existing properties, we have the very well documented interest rate lock in effect. I think a lot of people understand that. But as far as bringing more supply onto the market, do you see anything from the builder side? You know, costs are up for builders and builders feel this lack of affordability from the buyer market as well. So therefore that motivates them to build somewhat less.

Keith Weinhold (00:14:43) - And they're also building smaller properties, some shrinkflation with new construction property to try to help out with that affordability. So what are your thoughts with builder motivations this year and next year?

Rick Sharga (00:14:54) - All that thought is we're going to get to new homes in just a couple of minutes. So keep that right forefront in mind. But let's just kind of wrap up on existing sales. I do want to point out to your listeners that the inventory growth is actually outpacing the number of new listings. So new listings are only up about 14% year over year, whereas overall inventory is up 24%. The reason for that is it's taking longer to sell homes once they get to market. So once those properties are listed, they're staying in the inventory numbers a little bit longer than they were last year or even a few months ago. So that's one of the reasons the inventory numbers look a little bit better than they did. You talked about the rate lock effect. It's still very real. About two thirds of everybody with a mortgage has a mortgage rate of 4% or less.

Rick Sharga (00:15:43) - And this is not home sellers being picky or having a psychological problem. This is math. If you sell a property today and buy a new one for exactly the same price as the one you just sold, you've now doubled your monthly mortgage payment and most people simply can't afford to do that. So the properties being listed or by by people who feel like they need to sell, there's a death in the family or a birth in the family. There's a divorce or there's a marriage. There's a job loss or job that requires a transfer, maybe some financial difficulties where the borrowers in distress so they feel like they have to sell the home, or somebody's been retired for a long time, has a lot of equity, and just says, oh the heck with it. It's time for me to downsize. But the people who would normally be making a decision that maybe I'd like to sell, maybe I'd like to look at a move up opportunity. Those people are sitting on the sidelines and rather than seeing a price crash, which is what people are breathlessly trying to sell you on YouTube, the most likely scenario, something we've seen play out in the 80s and 90s and is likely to play out again in the 2020s, which is several years of kind of lackluster sales volume and modest price growth.

Rick Sharga (00:16:54) - And it takes a few years to reset the levels so that all those people with the Sub4 mortgages gradually, slowly work their way out of inventory and are replaced by people with mortgages that are closer to today's rates. And we've seen that happen, like I said, in the 80s and 90s, and it's a very normal occurrence when you have a sudden shift in either mortgage rates or home prices, that's much more likely to happen than a 2030 40% drop in home prices to make things affordable. And I would just ask anybody who's skeptical, if somebody approached you tomorrow and you didn't have to sell, but they said, hey, sell me your house for 40% less than market value. How interested would you be in having that conversation?

Keith Weinhold (00:17:36) - Wouldn't last long.

Rick Sharga (00:17:37) - No. And then home prices are up in every region. You mentioned this, Keith. Across the country I'm sharing for people that can see it. I'm sharing data from the Fhfa, which is the entity that controls Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. So all of those 30 year fixed rate conventional loans and a year over year basis, we saw prices go up 6.3%.

Rick Sharga (00:17:56) - They were up in every region of the country. And that's a little different than the prior year when the Pacific region was actually down. But every region of the country is seeing price growth right now. And whichever price index you look at Case-Shiller,, Freddie Mac, the Fhfa index, National Association of Realtors, everybody showed similar numbers were every region was up. But importantly for your listeners and I emphasize this enough, local results are very different than national results. So even within markets where we're seeing prices go up, there are going to be neighborhoods where prices are going down and vice versa. So it's much more important for you to understand what's going on in your local market than to listen to a lot of these national trends. I will tell you that some of the markets that overheated during the pandemic, as people were moving out of high priced, high tax or highly congested areas, are seeing a bit of a clawback. So places like Boise, Idaho and Saint George's, Utah and Austin and Phoenix and Las Vegas, we're seeing those markets with the prices clawing back a little bit, a lot of price growth continuing the southeast.

Rick Sharga (00:19:04) - So and surprisingly now in the Midwest as well. So we are still seeing a bit of a migration from high price, high tax areas into lower priced markets. I tell folks, Keith, I have two adult kids living at home. My son's getting married in September. He's a teacher. His fiance is a lawyer, and they took me aside recently and said, hey, you follow this stuff. What states should we be looking at outside of California to move so that we can own a house?

Keith Weinhold (00:19:31) - Wow, that is really, really interesting that that would dictate their decision on where they live, if they have that much of a preference to own rather than rent. Recently, a lot of us in the industry learned that the average age of the first time homebuyer is now 36, older than ever.

Rick Sharga (00:19:48) - Yep. And these are two kids with good heads on their shoulders. They know there are benefits to homeownership, and they also know that the median price of a home sold in California last month was almost $800,000, and the First National Bank of dad ain't financing that acquisition.

Rick Sharga (00:20:02) - So I'm sure these conversations are happening in New York, in Chicago, in Miami and in San Francisco, and it's just the reality of today's marketplace. We talked about prices going up. We are seeing slightly more homes having a price reduction before they're sold. That always happens somewhere along the lines of 30 to 35% of homes listed wind up with a price reduction before they're sold. We're up to about 31% now, so we're still in the normal range, but we're a little higher than we've been in recent months.

Keith Weinhold (00:20:35) - This is interesting, a statistic we don't talk about very much, the percent of homes experiencing list price reductions.

Rick Sharga (00:20:42) - And it peaked in 2022. The highest number we've seen in quite a while was over 40%. And that was right after interest rates doubled. And so it's probably not a huge surprise. People were anticipating they were pricing based on the prior market. And I think we're seeing more rational pricing today. But again, that combination of prices just being as high as they are and interest rates being as high as they are, are creating some affordability issues.

Rick Sharga (00:21:05) - And for people that have to sell, they're taking price reductions. Now, keep in mind these price reductions are often very, very minimal. In California, for example, the average price reduction is less than a percent. So it's not a huge reduction, but it's still a reduction from what the list price was. You asked about new homes. So now I'm going to make you happy. We'll talk about new homes. New home inventory levels are increasing. We normally want to see about a six month supply of existing homes for sale. The new home inventory is usually between 7 and 8 months. And we're back to that number right now. Some of those homes available for sale are still under construction, but they are nonetheless available for sale. And we've seen that inventory improve over the last year as supply chain disruptions have minimized as builders are now more able to find laborers for construction. Those are two huge holdups they had over the last couple of years, and we've seen new home sales increase. And one of the reasons for that is they're available.

Rick Sharga (00:22:05) - So if you're a builder and you put a home in the market at the right price, you're going to sell it because there just aren't that many existing homes available for sale. And to your other point, Keith, new home prices are actually down 15% from peak. Existing home prices are up, new home prices are down. And in fact, if you look at the most recent new home pricing data put up by the Census Bureau recently, new home prices are at the lowest level since June of 2021. So they've really come down pretty significantly and are not that far away from existing home prices in many markets. So that median price of an existing home and the median price of a new home for sale are closer than they've been in years, partly because the builders are building smaller homes, partly because you're using less expensive fixtures. And the other thing that the builders have been doing, and this price is a lot of people, but it's brilliant on their part, is they're coming to closing with thousands of dollars and they're paying down mortgage rates.

Rick Sharga (00:23:01) - They're buying points and dropping the mortgage rate for their buyers. I spoke to a group in Denver recently where there was a local builder advertising mortgage rates of 4.99%. So think about that.

Keith Weinhold (00:23:13) - We have providers we work with here that are doing similar things. We're still seeing the rate buy downs happening, and that's why I've often told people, Rick, like, this is potentially a good time in the cycle when you're adding more rental property to really look at new builds or build to rent while these rate buy downs last. Now, I talked to a builder in Houston yesterday, and I learned a few interesting things. You talked about the smaller square footages. They could confirm that often times this builder offers either a bedroom or a study. You can get an extra bedroom or a study like a little office space. And more and more people are opting for the study. So they're starting to build homes more with the study in mind because more people are working from home and one less bedroom because people are having fewer children.

Rick Sharga (00:23:57) - Exactly right. It's the combination of both of those two things, either having fewer children or having them later. And many more people working from home than they were prior to the pandemic. And those studies become very, very useful., rooms to have in the house. Rick, what.

Keith Weinhold (00:24:12) - Is the lowest cost, new build, single family home that you see? I mean, is anyone even building in any parts of the nation, like a 225 K new build home? I haven't seen one.

Rick Sharga (00:24:26) - I haven't seen one. But I wouldn't be surprised if you're in a market in a state like Alabama or Mississippi and some of the more outlying areas, maybe some markets in the Midwest where home prices aren't as astronomical as they are elsewhere. But look, the builders are building judiciously. They're not overbuilding., we had a cycle in 2008 where we had a 13 month supply of homes available for sale and building Irish building. They got caught with overstock. But what they are building, they tend to build as move up homes because they're more profitable.

Rick Sharga (00:24:58) - So you're just not seeing an awful lot of entry level homes being built. And the hope is that as they build that first move up level home, some of the people with entry level homes will opt to sell and bring some of that inventory back to market. We are seeing more construction. We are seeing building permits,, going up on a year over year basis., most recent numbers are around 1.5 million permits. So the builders are bullish on the future. And housing starts were up in both January and February. Most importantly they're up most strongly in single family owner occupied homes. We're seeing housing starts to decline dramatically in terms of multifamily starts, right. But that's because there's about a million new apartment units coming online between last year and this year. And we don't need a whole lot more apartments., we need,, more single family homes. So if your listeners are seeing headlines talking about housing starts being lower, it's really because we're seeing fewer multifamily starts.

Keith Weinhold (00:25:54) - Last year was a big year for multifamily construction.

Rick Sharga (00:25:57) - All time high in terms of multifamily units under construction. And a lot of those are still coming to market this year. There are going to be some markets that are actually still oversupplied. So again, you have to be paying very close attention. When we talk a little bit about the rental market in the apartment category, we have seen apartment rents decline year over year in pretty much all categories. Whether you're looking at studio apartments, one bedroom apartments, two better apartments on a year over year basis, rents are actually in negative territory, according to Realtor.com and according to some data I've recently seen from RealPage. If you're looking at the actual price of rent and I know that's a little different than percentage increases or decreases, you're still seeing that rents about it's below peak. It's about 1.6% below the peak we hit in 2022,, when vacancy rates were just about nothing. But we are still below peak, and the median rent is ranging,, somewhere in the neighborhood of $1,700 a year for apartments, single family homes, which I suspect more of your listeners are actually,, renting out than apartments.

Rick Sharga (00:27:03) - Yes. Are doing better. We're seeing year over year rents continue to grow. They're growing modestly. They have not gone into negative territory, and they haven't,, during this boom and bust cycle that we've seen in the housing market. And if you're looking at,, price gains, according to some recent data from CoreLogic, if you're at the higher end of the single family rental market, prices are up about 3% year over year. At the low end, they're up about 2.9%. So very little difference depending on your price tier and also very little difference depending on whether you're looking at an attached single family residence or,, detached family single family residence. All those are up right around 3% year over year. And that's a good sign. Again, you're dealing with a as your your listeners know, you're dealing with a slightly different tenant in a single family home than you are in a, an apartment. And a lot of these people who would have been buyers or opting to rent stands to reason that,, they'd rather rent a house, particularly if it's in a good school district or in a good neighborhood than an apartment, because they have needs.

Keith Weinhold (00:28:06) - Rents are extremely stable historically. They just sort of plod up slowly. What happened about two years ago, three years ago, with that 15% plus rent increase, that's an aberration.

Rick Sharga (00:28:19) - Yeah, that's a good point, Keith. If we're looking at 3% rental growth year over year right now in the single family rental market that tracks with historic normals, usually you're somewhere between 1 and 5% a year. So threes, you know, smack dab in the middle of all that. And the growth rates also vary wildly by markets., just kind of give you a range if you're looking at a single family rental property in Honolulu, in the city, year over year, you're up about 6%. If you're looking at a unit in Miami, Florida, you're down about 2.5%.

Keith Weinhold (00:28:50) - So rental growth rates.

Rick Sharga (00:28:52) - Rental growth rates. So really just depends on where you are. That's pretty much your range from a couple points down to I think Honolulu actually had the largest,, increase in the CoreLogic study. A lot of your listeners are probably interested in buying foreclosure properties.

Rick Sharga (00:29:07) - We're not seeing a lot of foreclosure activity. Still, we are starting to see a little weakness in consumers. When we met last week, we talked a little bit about the strength of consumer spending, but we also talked about increasing amounts of spending on credit cards. And we're seeing consumer delinquency rates increase in pretty much every aspect of consumer lending, whether it's a loan, whether it's a credit card debt, whether it's an auto loan, whether it's a home equity line of credit, whether it's a mortgage, a mortgage, delinquencies are up a little bit. The only category we're not seeing an increase in delinquencies right now is student loans. And my theory on that is that people have only recently had to start making payments again on student loans, and we don't have any data to show that they're going delinquent yet. But the delinquency numbers we need to take with a grain of salt, because many of them are most of them are early stage delinquency. So somebody missed a payment, but then they catch up before they get 60 or 90 days delinquent.

Rick Sharga (00:30:02) - But we are seeing trends that suggest more delinquencies. And if you have more delinquencies, that leads to more foreclosures. Mortgage delinquency rates, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association, went up to about 3.8% in the fourth quarter, the historic average going back to the 1970s, which is as far back as the NBA goes, is about 5.25%. So we're still way below normal levels of delinquencies. As I mentioned, most of those are early stage delinquencies, and they're being resolved before they get more serious. Because of that, we don't have a lot of foreclosure activity. So this is no longer Keith government intervention. It's no longer government forbearance programs and foreclosure moratoriums. It's the fact that the economy's been so strong. Unemployment rates have a very strong correlation to mortgage delinquency rates. We got together last time I mentioned the unemployment rate was at 3.9%. I just told you that word delinquencies are at 3.8. Can't get much closer than that. And because of that, foreclosure activity is still down almost 30% from where we were in 2019 prior to the pandemic.

Rick Sharga (00:31:07) - And I should point out, the 2019 wasn't a particularly big year for foreclosures either. So I don't see us getting back to pre-pandemic levels of foreclosure activity until sometime next year. And what's important for people in this space to understand is that even though we're seeing roughly the same number of delinquencies that we saw back in 2019, fewer of those delinquent loans are going into foreclosure. Fewer of those foreclosures are getting as far as the auction, and even fewer of those are going back to the banks as REO properties or bank owned properties.

Keith Weinhold (00:31:40) - Delinquency occurs before foreclosure. We have low levels of both, and I would imagine that one substantial reason for that are these low fixed rate payments that so many people have. Minutes ago, you showed us that 90% of those with a mortgage have a rate in the fives or less. And then oftentimes when we talk about these sorts of things, we don't even consider the fact that more than 4 in 10 homeowners are free and clear. They don't have any mortgage at all. So it's difficult for people to get in trouble.

Rick Sharga (00:32:10) - Yeah. And when they do get in trouble, what's really a saving grace for a lot of these people? And I believe the reason we're seeing fewer foreclosure auctions and bank repossessions is that there's $31 trillion in homeowner equity in the market, and 90% of borrowers in foreclosure have positive equity. A huge percentage of those have at least 20% equity. So what's happening interesting is that many, many of these borrowers are protecting their equity by selling their home before the foreclosure sale. If they get to foreclosure sale, they run the risk of losing all their equity, or at least the overwhelming majority of their equity.

Keith Weinhold (00:32:48) - That's a great point with how this really works.

Rick Sharga (00:32:50) - And so if you're looking to buy a distressed property, if you're looking to buy a foreclosure property, you really need to be working directly with the homeowner in the earliest stages of foreclosure rather than waiting for the auction. And certainly rather than waiting for the bank to repossess the home and resell it. And some recent data from a friend of mine@auction.com tracking some numbers from Adam Data.

Rick Sharga (00:33:15) - 55% of the distressed properties that were sold through from June through to September of last year were sold in that pre foreclosure period prior to the foreclosure auction. That's wildly different than we've been in in years past. So really important for anybody looking to buy distressed property, to consider moving upstream and working directly with that homeowner. And it's a win win. You can help that homeowner protect their equity, have some cash to make a fresh start with and, and typically buy a home in pretty good condition and a home that you need to be part of your rental portfolio. So just kind of recapping some of the stuff we talked about, Keith, both today and last week, I still think that from an economic standpoint, there's still at least a good possibility we might have a short, mild recession sometime later this year. I don't see unemployment going much higher than 5%. Even if we do have a recession, if we don't have a recession, we'll only see the economy slowed down a bit. It might be hard to tell the difference.

Rick Sharga (00:34:10) - I'm expecting the volume of home sales to go up. I think we bottomed out in 2023, but not by a lot. Maybe we see a 10% lift over last year, which would take us to roughly 4.4 million existing homes. I wouldn't be surprised to see 700,000 new homes sold, really just depends on how quickly builders bring inventory to market. But if I'm right and mortgage rates go down slowly over the second half of this year, we'll see more home buyers come to market more quickly than sellers. We don't see a lot of sellers come to market until we get interest rates down to about 5.5% or lower, which probably won't happen until 2025. So more buyers coming to market than sellers means the prices will continue to go up. We continue to see investors account for 25 to 30% of all residential purchases. So I think we'll continue to see a higher rate, partly because investors are active, partly because a lot of consumers are waiting for market conditions to improve, but that limited affordability in today's market conditions, I really do think means more demand for rental units.

Rick Sharga (00:35:14) - And I think foreclosure activity stays below normal levels for the rest of this year, and REO inventory bank repossessions are going to remain even lower for even longer. I don't think we see REO activity come back to more normal levels for at least a couple of years, so anybody looking to buy these properties really does need to be moving upstream in order to make those purchases.

Keith Weinhold (00:35:34) - Yeah, with low affordability, hence more demand for rentals. I've already noticed that the homeownership rate, which is somewhat of a trailing number here, has already fallen from 66% to 65.7%. And with low affordability, it seems that that homeownership rate could fall even more, meaning the rate of renters would be higher.

Rick Sharga (00:35:54) - A friend of mine always complains that the government's somehow beside behind all of these trends, one way or the other, and and wonders why, with all the government programs aimed at increasing homeownership, we haven't seen that homeownership rate increase much. And I think sometimes things said to the natural level and our homeownership rate, really for the last 30 years, has been somewhere between 64% and 66%.

Rick Sharga (00:36:19) - And that might just be what the natural level for homeownership is in the United States. Will it dip a little bit as people can't afford to buy a house? Probably. Probably will. When market conditions improve for buyers, will it go up a little bit? Probably. But we hit 70% homeownership back in 2006. And it turned out that was the bad number and that not everybody's ready financially for the kind of commitment that homeownership requires. And so I've always said that the key isn't getting everybody into a home. It's the sustainability of homeownership for people that that we do get into that house. One of the best days of your life is when you get the key to that house, and it has to be one of the worst days if you have to give it back. So I hope we all keep that in mind as we move forward.

Keith Weinhold (00:37:03) - That's right. Government incentives is in the past saying there's a $10,000 first time homebuyer tax credit. Oh, we're not in an era where we need help. On the demand side, all you're doing is driving up prices.

Keith Weinhold (00:37:14) - And I don't know that you're helping out anybody in that case. But I think with really overall, one big takeaway here, Rick, is that if you the listener, if you're waiting for prices to drop substantially sometime or for interest rates to drop substantially sometime, that might not be worth the wait. You could be waiting a long time.

Rick Sharga (00:37:32) - I do expect mortgage rates will decline. I don't really go back to the sub for rates we saw a few years ago, but they're going to decline slowly and they may not decline enough to offset rising home prices. I mean, you have to get your calculator out and and figure out how that math works for you. But you're absolutely right, Keith. And I tell people today, even with mortgage rates being where they are, if you find a house you love or you find a house that's a good investment and you pencil it out and the numbers work, don't wait because the opportunity costs can be severe and you could wind up missing out on a property that could either be a good cash flow unit for you on rental, or it could be a property that you wind up living in for the next 30 years.

Rick Sharga (00:38:13) - So don't be afraid of today's market. Just be very prudent and judicious in the way you approach it.

Keith Weinhold (00:38:19) - Well, Rick, get resuscitation of followers and the nation have been a beneficiary of your housing market intelligence expertise for quite a while now. If someone wants to engage with you in the CJ Patrick Company, who are those types of people and how could you help?

Rick Sharga (00:38:36) - I appreciate the opportunity. Most of the companies I work with or companies that provide services to lenders, anybody who has a business that's in the real estate or financial services markets, who would benefit from my coming in to share with them industry data, or has data themselves that they would like to get out into the marketplace? Anything data related really, I tend to specialize in. So market updates and market overviews and market. Analysis or things that I do on a pretty much daily basis for companies.

Keith Weinhold (00:39:07) - How can they engage with you?

Rick Sharga (00:39:08) - They can find our website, which is C.J. patrick.com. They can find me on Twitter. I hide there under my name, Rick, or reach out to me on LinkedIn.

Rick Sharga (00:39:17) - And if you reach out to me on on a social media channel, make sure that you mention you know me through Keith, and you're not some crazy Russian bot trying to hack into my personal information.

Keith Weinhold (00:39:27) - Well, then, Rick, it's been great having you back on the show.

Rick Sharga (00:39:30) - I'm sure we'll do it again sometime soon. Thanks for having me.

Keith Weinhold (00:39:39) - Yeah, terrific Intel there. In this episode, Rick said that to still expect a lower amount of sales going forward and expect modest property price appreciation. Every region of the nation is seeing price growth now. And by the way, you remember that late last year, I unveiled Gray's home price appreciation forecast for this year, stating that prices should rise 4% and here in Q2, I still like how that looks. There is not much distress with current homeowners, but if you're looking to scoop up a foreclosed property cheap, you better get aggressive and work directly with the homeowner in the earliest stages of foreclosure. Don't wait for that property to go to auction. Rick also said more demand for rental units is coming, and I encourage you to engage with Rick.

Keith Weinhold (00:40:30) - Let him know you heard about him through me. If you want to go deeper and engage with some of the services that he offers, perhaps you work for a real estate company or a demographic company. You can do that at C.J. patrick.com. But most of you, the listener is an individual investor. So check him out on X where his handle is Rick Sharga. He is Rick Sharga on LinkedIn. Big thanks to Rick Sharga today. Until next week I'm your host, Keith Wild. Don't quit your daydream.

Speaker 5 (00:41:04) - Nothing on this show should be considered specific, personal or professional advice. Please consult an appropriate tax, legal, real estate, financial or business professional for individualized advice. Opinions of guests are their own. Information is not guaranteed. All investment strategies have the potential for profit or loss. The host is operating on behalf of get Rich education LLC exclusively.

Keith Weinhold (00:41:32) - The preceding program was brought to you by your home for wealth building. Get rich education.com.

Direct download: GREepisode496_.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 4:00am EST

Mon, 1 April 2024

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Our core formula here at GRE is simple, buy-and-hold real estate. Then where does your profit come from? I explain.

Where will your next tenant come from? Essentially, market intelligence analyst Rick Sharga & I answer this today.

We explore job growth, wage growth, and the condition of today’s consumer / tenant.

Rick Sharga doesn’t believe that mortgage rates will fall substantially until the Fed Funds Rate does. This isn’t likely to happen until at least June.

Consumers are exhibiting some distress signals. Credit card debt has swelled. We break it down.

Many economic indicators still show that they’ll still be an economic slowdown.

In most recessions, home sales and home prices both rise.

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494: Do You WANT to Retire? What is Retirement?

Complete episode transcript:

Keith Weinhold (00:00:00) - Welcome to gray. I'm your host, Keith Weinhold. We aren't fooling around on April Fool's Day. How can you be assured of having rent paying tenants in the future? That's dictated by the economy, job growth and real wage growth above inflation. Well, how exactly does all that relate to the housing market? We break it down today with an expert guest on Get Rich Education. When you want the best real estate and finance info, the modern internet experience limits your free articles access, and it's replete with paywalls. And you've got pop ups and push notifications and cookies. Disclaimers are. At no other time in history has it been more vital to place nice, clean, free content into your hands that actually adds no hype value to your life? See, this is the golden age of quality newsletters, and I write every word of ours myself. It's got a dash of humor and it's to the point to get the letter. It couldn't be more simple. Text GRE to 66866. And when you start the free newsletter, you'll also get my one hour fast real estate course completely free.

Keith Weinhold (00:01:16) - It's called the Don't Quit Your Daydream letter and it wires your mind for wealth. Make sure you read it. Text GRE to 66866. Text GRE to 66866.

Corey Coates (00:01:33) - You're listening to the show that has created more financial freedom than nearly any show in the world. This is get rich education.

Keith Weinhold (00:01:49) - What category? You're listening to one of America's longest running in most listened to shows on real estate investing, the Voice of Real Estate since 2014. This is get rich education. I'm your host. My name is Keith Weinhold, and you probably know that by now. But what we never truly know is the direction of the economy and how it shapes the housing market. Well, an expert and I are putting our heads together for you today to give you the best indication that we possibly can. I'll be with us shortly. And he is coming, armed with all of his best indicators and statistics. Last week here on the show, I got somewhat philosophical with you at times when I posited the question, do you want to retire? And I helped answer the question, what is retirement today anyway? I had a lot of good feedback on that show, but today we're talking about more concrete indicators with some numbers.

Keith Weinhold (00:02:50) - For example, historically in a recession, what really happens to real estate prices? We're going to answer that and more questions like it today. Now, I like to say that wealthy people's money either starts out in real estate or ends up in real estate, but there are so many ways to do it, so many ways to do real estate right? Hence so many ways to do it wrong as well. Our formula that we use here at GRE more than any other, is something we use because it is so simple that I think some people overlook it. It is buy and hold. Yeah, mostly long term buy and hold residential rentals. Now, we sure talk about some other things too, but that's really a cheap formula, something that we focused on since day one here. Now there surely can be some other good strategies as long as you execute, right? Flipping, wholesaling, Oreos, the birth strategy, self-storage units, RV parks and a lot more. But with buy and hold, I think some people know the real estate.

Keith Weinhold (00:03:58) - They might then ask, well, well where's your margin on that? Where does your profit come from if you just buy and hold? Or they might even think that that strategy is really slow and a 40 year game plan. Well, then they learn about the five ways and that changes that. It's largely about buying strategically and then managing your manager. I think most people dream of a life where they can just spend their time remotely managing their investments here and there. Now, for me, most months, I don't have anything to do with managing a property manager in a certain market. I just get the cash flow and then I do browse the monthly property statement. Some months had only been do that because from the amount of cash flow received, I can often see that nothing really went wrong for the month because from the amount of cash flow received, I can often see that nothing really went wrong for the month. Tax benefits as one of the five ways you're paid. That takes some management to and you know this tax time of year with my bookkeeper.

Keith Weinhold (00:05:11) - At times she emails me and asks me for this and that scrap of information. The mindset that helped me manage all the generous tax benefits of real estate is not taking my bookkeepers questions as an occasional annoyance, but rather taking the mindset of tax benefits or something that you can manage throughout the year. And that way when my bookkeeper goes an entire month without asking me for something, it can feel like a short break. Sort of like something was turned off for a month. And hey, first world problems, right? Downloading a document and emailing it to your bookkeeper ten minutes a month., today is also talking about where your next tenant is coming from, which really, at the end of the day, is what a real estate economics discussion is about. Well, it's also about giving tenants the housing that they want, meeting their desired lifestyle and the set of amenities that are both going to attract your renter in the first place and then retain your renter over the long term every year. Building,, the property management software company, they ask thousands of renters which amenities and property layouts would motivate them to choose one rental property over another.

Keith Weinhold (00:06:33) - That's what they're asking tenants. And what you imagine that renters might want could be different from the reality. For years now, renters are prioritizing their neighborhood quality. In the amenities that are actually inside the rental unit. Those things are more important than they are the shared community amenities like a pool, lobby, clubhouse or gym. Renters are gravitating toward neighborhoods that are safe and quiet, but yet are still convenient to stores and restaurants. And that led to half of the renters surveyed to rental properties that are located in the suburbs. Now, when it comes to the amenities within their rental unit that they're prioritizing, renters want a space with kind of all those comforts of home air conditioning and a washer and dryer to the option to own a pet. And these are the feature types of single family rentals, although some newer apartments can meet that too. And some condos community amenities. Then like a fitness center or a pool. I mean, they still hold some appeal to residents in these surveys, but lately they're seen more merely as perks instead of necessities for today's cost conscious renters.

Keith Weinhold (00:07:55) - So the bottom line here with this survey is that it's what's actually inside the unit that's become more important. And maybe that's a little too bad as people tend to get less social. They're using community areas less, they're prioritizing them less. And hey, maybe they just want to lie on the sofa and scroll their phone in a nice, comfortable place. Hey, you've got a suit and fit the world as it is, not as the way that you wanted to be, at least when you're providing others with housing. Hey, coming up here both on the show and on our YouTube channel, why do Western US homes cost more than eastern US homes on average? This seems geographically paradoxical. It feels backwards to a lot of people, because almost two thirds of the United States lives east of the Mississippi River, and yet that area comprises just over one third of all the land. You've got almost two thirds of people living on just over one third of all the land in the East. So to some more people on less area, oh, that would have to mean that eastern home prices are more costly.

Keith Weinhold (00:09:09) - No, it is exactly the opposite. In fact, coming up on a future show, I'll share eight plus reasons why. This is why Western US homes cost more than eastern ones. And this is also why many of the best cash flow markets, they tend to be in the eastern half of the US. They have those lower purchase prices also coming up in the future. I'm about to have a talk. This talk isn't going to be on the show here, but a talk with a conventional financial advisor about my own personal retirement. I've got an appointment with this person and this ought to be interesting. We'll see what he says about my situation. I'll try not to lecture him on how financially free beats debt free or anything like that. We'll see if I can hold off doing that. And if that meeting produces some interesting takeaways or just humorous ones, I'm going to share that with you in the future. And if you want to be sure to hear those upcoming episodes on subjects like that, I invite you to follow the show here on your favorite podcast.

Keith Weinhold (00:10:17) - And that way you won't miss any upcoming episodes. I only met today's guest about two years ago. We enjoyed that conversation and now we collaborate regularly. He helps provide crucial market updates that straight ahead. I'm Keith Reinhold, you're listening to episode 495 of get Rich education. You know, I'll just tell you, for the most passive part of my real estate investing, personally, I put my own dollars with Freedom Family Investments because their funds pay me a stream of regular cash flow in returns, or better than a bank savings account up to 12%. Their minimums are as low as 25 K. You don't even need to be accredited for some of them. It's all backed by real estate. And I kind of love how the tax benefit of doing this can offset capital gains and your W-2 jobs income. And they've always given me exactly their stated return paid on time. So it's steady income, no surprises while I'm sleeping or just doing the things I love. For a little insider tip, I've invested in their power fund to get going on that text family to 66866.

Keith Weinhold (00:11:31) - Oh, and this isn't a solicitation. If you want to invest where I do, just go ahead and text family to six, 686, six. Role under the specific expert with income property you need. Ridge lending Group Nmls 42056. In gray history from beginners to veterans, they provided our listeners with more mortgages than anyone. It's where I get my own loans for single family rentals up to four Plex's. Start your pre-qualification and chat with President Charlie Ridge personally. They'll even customize a plan tailored to you for growing your portfolio. Start at Ridge Lending group.com Ridge lending group.com. This is Rich dad advisor Tom Wheelwright. Listen to get Rich education with Keith Reinhold and don't quit your daydream. You are going to get a fantastic real estate market update today, and you'll also learn lessons if you're consuming this 5 or 10 years from now. Our expert guest has been the executive VP of markets. Some of America's leading housing intelligence firms named it national lists of most influential real estate leaders. He's frequently quoted on real estate, mortgage and foreclosure markets, too.

Keith Weinhold (00:12:59) - He runs the real estate market intelligence firm, the C.J. Patrick Company. Hey, welcome back to Great Rick Saga. Always a pleasure to spend some time with you, Keith. Thank you for having me. Oh, same here, because, Rick, you've been with us here every six months for about two years now. You and I discussed the condition of the overall economy as well as the real estate market. I think of both of those as resilient today. Now, back when I was a new real estate investor, Rick, I didn't know to look at the broad economy at all. I was more concerned with if, say, on a vacant unit that I had, I had the drywall texture just right to try to attract a new tenant ASAP. Now that surely matters. But time gave me the perspective to know that what matters more is to have a local stable of tenants that are capable of paying the rent, and that's what matters more. So with that in mind, where would you like to begin? That's great counsel.

Keith Weinhold (00:14:03) - And it's really important for investors or even somebody looking to buy a house, understand what's going on economically, both across the country and in their region. So why don't we start by taking a look at what's going on in the economy? There's been a lot of conversation about potential recession. We can talk a bit about that, but if you're good to go, we'll start by just sharing some information about the US economy and some of the trends that we're seeing. Yeah, let's go ahead and do that. And yes, that dreaded our word may very well come up. That thing that we've all been waiting for but has never happened. Don't count your chickens just yet. But let's see what's going on. Because on average, recessions do happen every five years. It's just a normal part of the business cycle. Yeah, that's important to keep in context. I'm glad you brought that up. Recessions are a normal part of the business cycle and the economic cycle. We may be slightly overdue to have one at this point, although the last one that we had took very, very long to recover from, the Great Recession that started back in 2008 took a full decade to recover from, which is also very unusual.

Keith Weinhold (00:15:05) - So we'll take a look at some of these cycles and see where we are today. Keith, the basic metric that most economists look at when they're trying to figure out the strength of the US economy is is something called the gross domestic product, the GDP.

Rick Sharga (00:15:18) - We track that to see if it's growing, if it's declining. The technical definition of a recession is two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth. And there's been a lot of talk about the GDP slowing down in the US. But really it's been mostly talk. In fact, if you look at the last quarter, we have data four, which was the fourth quarter of last year. You can see that the GDP grew by 3.2 3.3%, which was a much higher number than what most economists had forecast.

Keith Weinhold (00:15:47) - That resilient economy with a low unemployment rate, jobs being added and productive growth in the GDP.

Rick Sharga (00:15:54) - Yeah, we're going to get to all of that. And it's a great point. If you look at what makes up the GDP, about two thirds of it is comprised of consumer spending, right.

Rick Sharga (00:16:04) - So typically when you see strong GDP numbers, you're consumer is doing pretty well. And a lot of this probably has to do with consumers still having money to spend from the enormous amount of stimulus that the federal government poured into the economy to help prevent a recession or depression during Covid. About $15 trillion in all of the stimulus that was sent out to consumers and businesses alike. And that's probably helped us weather the storm of what normally might have been a slowdown in the economy. We are, however, Keith, in a globally interconnected economy, and it's important to note that not all of our peers are doing quite as well. Canada may already be in a recession. The UK is almost certainly in a recession. The eurozone barely escaped going into recessionary numbers in the last quarter, and even markets like China aren't doing as well as as expected. And I'm not saying that to gloat about how well the US is doing. I'm saying that is sort of a warning that if we do get into a situation where it looks like there's a global recession going on, it's very unlikely the US will come out of that untainted at all.

Rick Sharga (00:17:09) - So it's something to keep an eye on as we move forward.

Keith Weinhold (00:17:11) - Right. 100%.

Rick Sharga (00:17:13) - You mentioned unemployment a couple of minutes ago, Keith, and that's one of the other economic metrics we check. Unemployment went all the way up. And I say that facetiously. The 3.9% in the numbers, full employment is considered to be anywhere at 5% unemployment or lower. And we haven't been at 5% unemployment. Probably since about 2016, with the exception of the blip we had during the Covid pandemic, when the government shut things down and we had a huge increase in unemployment temporarily. But we are continuing to see very, very strong job numbers, both in terms of these low levels of unemployment and in terms of job growth. The January and February numbers again caught the economists who come up with these consensus forecasts by surprise. In January, about 350,000 jobs created. In February, about 250,000 jobs created. I should put an asterisk on some of these numbers. When you hear politicians talking about all the jobs they've created over the last few years.

Rick Sharga (00:18:15) - Keep in mind that during the Covid pandemic, we wiped out about 22 million jobs virtually overnight. A lot of the millions of jobs that have been created over the last few years were really those old jobs being refilled. We filled most of those within about two years, and we have continued to create jobs since then. We have more jobs than we have people looking for work. They're about 8.5 million jobs open, about 6 to 6.5 million people looking for work.

Keith Weinhold (00:18:43) - You can almost think that this is an over employed condition.

Rick Sharga (00:18:46) - And it almost is in most cases, not all cases, but in most cases, somebody who doesn't have a job right now just isn't looking for a job right now. And these are not all service level jobs. That's the other pushback I get when I'm out talking to groups sometimes. Oh yeah, but not everybody wants to work at Starbucks. Well, first of all, you get pretty good benefits of Starbucks free coffee healthcare. But let's not do a Starbucks commercial. These are government jobs.

Rick Sharga (00:19:10) - They're manufacturing jobs. They're construction jobs. They are some type of service level jobs. But these are jobs across the board. And because there are more jobs available than people are looking for work, we're seeing wages go up. The average hourly wage across the country last month was over $29 an hour, which is the highest it's ever been. And if you look at wage growth on a year over year basis, it's running at about 5%. And really, Keith, this is the first time in a number of years that we can say with certainty that wage growth is actually running at a higher pace than the rate of inflation, right.

Keith Weinhold (00:19:44) - And that really matters. That really helps pay the rent. One thing that detractors say with the unemployment rate, you talked about them not necessarily being consolidated in the low paid service sector area, is that a lot of people lament, well, aren't many of these part time jobs? Where are your thoughts there?

Rick Sharga (00:20:01) - There are a probably historically large number of part time jobs, but we also have an awful lot of people who have opted out of full time work for a variety of reasons, and are thrilled to be able to pick up some money working in the gig economy.

Rick Sharga (00:20:16) - So whether they're driving for Uber or Lyft, they're doing DoorDash or something else that's a part time job that they're doing just to either, in some cases, kill time or to make a little bit of extra money. This isn't an economy where the majority of part time workers are in part time jobs, because they can't find a full time job. That's simply not the case, and the data doesn't support that.

Keith Weinhold (00:20:41) - Now, if you, the listener and viewer here are wondering, well, this stuff doesn't apply directly to me. I'm good. I'm secure in my job. Maybe I don't even need a job. Keep in mind that we're talking about the financial condition of your tenant today.

Rick Sharga (00:20:57) - Yeah. When I'm talking to to real estate investors in general, I know that you were talking about drywall earlier, and sometimes you really can't see the forest for the trees. You're kind of overwhelmed or you're not sure where you should actually be looking. I tell them in many cases, to pay less attention to home prices and rental rates and more attention to some of the underlying fundamental economic conditions.

Rick Sharga (00:21:20) - Are you in a market where population is growing or declining? Are you in a market where there's job growth? Are you in a market where there's wage growth? If you're at a market where the population, jobs and wages are all growing, you're going to be in a pretty healthy market for real estate, whether it's owner occupied properties or its rental properties. On the other hand, if jobs are leaving your market, if wages are going down, if population is declining, those are warning signs. And it might be an indication that that's not a good market to start investing more in. So everything we're talking about really does get connected back to the housing market, whether it's rental housing or owner occupied housing. And it's important to see these trends for what they are.

Keith Weinhold (00:22:04) - And of course, we're talking about these factors on a national level. As we know, our real estate is local, and our audience is often interested in studying a metro market before they decide to invest there. So on that more regional level, Rick, or local level, do you have any favorite resources or websites or apps that you think are important for prospective investors to look at first within a certain region or MSA? Well, you.

Rick Sharga (00:22:33) - Can. Find a lot of local market data on some of the free housing sites that are out there. The Zillow's, the Realtor.com is the homes dot coms of the world. If you go beyond the basic home search, or if you dig deep into some of the information that they provide on local markets, within that home search, you'll find a lot of information there. There are third party companies. There's a company I'm familiar with it that works mostly with realtors, but has a lot of data that investors would probably be interested in. It's called keeping current matters. Yeah, they do an awful lot of reporting on this. But if you really want to do your own research and you don't mind doing a little bit of digging, I find that the Department of Labor and the Census Bureau and the Bureau of Labor Statistics, all government entities, have just copious amounts of local market information. You can find, you know, down to what does the local Pipefitter earn on an hourly basis in Peoria? There's all of that data out there for free on these government sites.

Rick Sharga (00:23:34) - You just have to be willing to do a little bit of research and dig through those sites.

Keith Weinhold (00:23:39) - Right. And sometimes the government websites don't exactly present their information in a beautiful, graphically rich way. But this is part of your research. Some people don't realize that, Fred, the Federal Reserve economic data has an awful lot of regional and local information, not just national information as well. Well, thanks for sharing some of those resources, Rick, and where you like to go and look, that can really help our audience. What else should a real estate investor know about today's overall economy?

Rick Sharga (00:24:08) - So we talked about consumer spending and the reliance our economy does have on consumer spending. And one of the things that I'm watching fairly carefully right now is an apparent disconnect between consumer confidence and consumer spending. So if you go back to when the pandemic hit and the lockdown occurred, consumer spending obviously fell off a cliff. There was just nothing to buy. And consumer confidence took a major hit with the announcement of the pandemic.

Rick Sharga (00:24:34) - Consumer spending as soon as the lockdown was over started to come back strongly and has never slowed down. It's hit an all time high today. Consumer confidence, on the other hand, was battered a little bit by subsequent waves of Covid, by threatened government shutdown in Washington, by the war in Ukraine, by the more recent war in the Middle East. And so the concern here is that if consumer confidence doesn't come back, we might see spending revert to the mean. And actually, as economists would say, and come back down, which would cause, at the very least an economic slowdown and at the worst, probably a recession. So it is something we're keeping an eye on. Consumer confidence has been improving a little bit lately, but historically it's gone hand in hand with consumer spending. And that simply hasn't been the case in recent months. So it is something we're keeping an eye on.

Keith Weinhold (00:25:25) - Now, one might wonder how do you measure confidence? Well, there are various surveys out there. And Rick, the way I think of it with consumers is that consumer confidence is more of a leading indicator, and then the actual consumption is more of a trailing indicator.

Rick Sharga (00:25:42) - I completely agree with you. The sentiment index that I follow most closely is one that's put out by the University of Michigan. Yeah, and it's been out there for decades. So there's an awful lot of history that goes with it. And generally speaking, on any index, you're looking for a number that's around or above 100 because that usually is your baseline. And some of the more recent months we've seen numbers down in the 50s and 60s. Now they've been trending up, as I said, in recent months. But that's something that's reported on very widely by the press. We were talking about sourcing things for investors. And I have to tell you, the just doing a basic Google search for something like, what's consumer confidence like today? You'd be surprised. The rich information that you can pull just from Google, that you can start to find some of these sources online. But that is one thing that we're watching. And, Keith, I think it's important to break out a little bit in more detail how consumers are spending or what they're spending with.

Rick Sharga (00:26:44) - And these are potential red flags for the economy, consumer credit card use. The amount of debt on credit cards surpassed $1 trillion in the third quarter of last year for the first time ever, and it got close to 1.2 trillion in the fourth quarter. That's an awful lot of credit card spending. Regardless of what you want to talk to me about, with inflation adjusted dollars, it's still $1 trillion. And that happened at a time when credit card interest rates had soared because of what the Federal Reserve was doing. So you're talking about people spending 1 to $1.2 trillion on their credit cards, when the average interest rate on a new credit card issued was between 25 and 30%. Gosh. Which, by the way, is a high enough number that it used to get you arrested for usury. And apparently now it's the new. Normal and it's okay. But this is concern. And one of the big concerns is because the cost of living has become so high and it's so difficult for so many families. The worry is that people might be starting to use their credit cards to make ends meet, to buy basic necessities, and that historically has not been a story with a happy ending.

Rick Sharga (00:27:52) - So we are watching credit card use. We're also watching personal savings rates. When the government stimulus came out, we saw a savings rates at all time highs. We then saw savings declined rapidly to all time low levels. They've recovered a little bit, but they're still on the low end of things, historically speaking. So the same worry here, Keith, which is that we're worried that families might be dipping into personal savings in order to make ends meet. And that combination, there's some research that suggests that, on average, the US household has more credit card debt than they have savings, and that's just not a healthy ratio for anybody to have.

Keith Weinhold (00:28:30) - Yeah, America has very much so they live for today mindset I think. So therefore it was a pretty predictable that after the Covid stimulus payments that savings levels probably would drop.

Rick Sharga (00:28:42) - Yeah. It's just that they drop further than what we had hoped they would. We're going to talk about inflation in the second. I have a bit of skepticism about some of the inflation numbers that we see reported from the government because of what they include or exclude, or some of the data is trailing by a long time.

Rick Sharga (00:28:56) - So I out of frustration, I created my own CPI. It's not the consumer price index, it's the Costco price index. And I look at one of my leading indicators is salmon because I buy my salmon at Costco. And a year ago that salmon cost 999 a pound. Today shopping a Costco, that salmon costs 1299 £1.30 percent. That's a 30% lift for all the talk we hear out of the administration about gas prices going down, I can tell you that where I buy my gas at Costco, it's a couple dollars more a gallon than it was just a few years ago. And I say this with a little bit of a chuckle, and I say this knowing that it's a nuisance for me. But I've been blessed. And it's not a life or death decision for me. But there are families out there who are deciding whether or not they can buy salmon this week. And I would submit that on average, your rental family's income is lower than your owner occupied houses, families, income. And so for all of your listeners who are landlords, this is something to be paying very close attention to, despite the fact that inflation is coming down.

Rick Sharga (00:30:02) - Keep in mind that these inflation rates are on top of very high prices that we have as a result of the previous cycle of inflation. So it's going to take a while, even with wages going up for those households to catch up here. And the hope is that wage growth will continue to outpace inflation growth long enough that they'll be able to do that.

Keith Weinhold (00:30:23) - Yes, that's a positive trend. Yeah. Rick, as long is in your Costco price index, Costco doesn't try to skimp, inflate and replace your wild elastic salmon with Atlantic farmed salmon. I'm sure you're going to be paying attention to that as well as you fill your own shopping basket and come up with what's really happening with inflation. Because for those that believe the CPI, it's been reported in the low threes lately and CPI peaked at 9.1% almost two years ago in June of 2022.

Rick Sharga (00:30:55) - And what the Federal Reserve has done is unprecedented. We've only ever seen rates go this high this quickly, once in the last 50 or 60 years. That was back in the 1980s, when inflation was really in runaway mode and out of control.

Rick Sharga (00:31:10) - And normally what the Federal Reserve does is very methodical, very thoughtful. They'll raise the fed funds rate a quarter of a point. They'll sit back and wait to see what happens. They'll raise another quarter point and give it some time to take effect and so forth and so on until they feel like inflation is under control. And then they'll then they'll drop that fed funds rate. In this case, they've admitted a few things that probably took a lot for them to say out loud. They admitted that they underestimated how high inflation would get. They admitted that they underestimated how quickly it would rise. And they also admitted that they underestimated how difficult it was going to be to get it under control. So what it did peak at about 9.1% a couple of years ago. They took unprecedented steps in terms of the size of of rate hikes and the rapidity with which they raised the fed funds rate. And now they're in a position where inflation is trending more or less in the right direction. It's in the low threes, as you said, it has not come down as much in the last couple reports as they would like.

Rick Sharga (00:32:10) - And that's probably going to result in them holding the fed funds rate at its current level for at least the first half of this year before they start doing rate cuts, because the last thing they want to do is cut too soon and see inflation start to come back up.

Keith Weinhold (00:32:25) - About one month ago, I did an episode titled Why the Fed should not lower rates. Rates are. Normal and the economy doesn't need the help. So if we do have this dreaded R-word, this recession, the most convenient tool for the fed to use is to cut rates. We don't want to use up that ammo while we're still in a good position like we are today.

Rick Sharga (00:32:47) - Yeah, I don't disagree with you. And there were some economists and mostly Wall Street, who had been predicting a fed rate cut as early as March and over the course of the year. And I thought they were all crazy great. And I've been saying at the earliest, May now I think it's probably not until June. The rates are a little higher than historic averages.

Rick Sharga (00:33:05) - I could see maybe three rate cuts this year, maybe four if the economy slows down significantly. We're not we're certainly not going back to the zero rates that we had for a few years. I think the fed will be very cautious and reserved in its approach to scaling back the fed funds rate. One of the the side effects of what they did is they cast a lot of uncertainty and doubt into the financial markets, which have caused mortgage rates to skyrocket, which have caused private lending rates to skyrocket. For your listeners who borrow from private lenders. And I don't think we see those rates start to come down significantly until after the fed does its first fed funds rate cut, I suspect, and so far I've been right, that until we see that rate cut, we're going to see mortgage rates on a 30 year fixed rate loan kind of bounce back and forth in a very narrow band between about 6.75 and 7.25% for the next few months. And that's really where they've been since January. And I think that will continue to be the case until we see that first rate cut, at which point the market will probably say, okay, they're serious now we can have that sigh of relief, and then we'll see a slow and gradual reduction in mortgage rates.

Rick Sharga (00:34:21) - I did want to touch on two things related to the fed actions and the current economic issues. Keith, because I often get the question about likelihood of a recession. If you go back in history all the way back to World War two, not counting this cycle, the Federal Reserve has raised the fed funds rates 11 times in order to get inflation under control. Eight of those 11 times, they've wound up over correcting as they raise the rates right. And that steered us into a recession. The three times that didn't happen, the three times they executed a soft landing, not a recession. All three of those cycles had something in common, and that was that the fed didn't have to overcorrect because they started early. They acted proactively when it looked like inflation was getting started, and they were able to keep inflation under control without a drastic increase in the fed funds rate this cycle. They've already admitted that they waited too long and inflation got higher than they expected. And because of that, they've had to raise the rates more quickly and more dramatically again than anything we've seen in the last 40 or 50 years.

Rick Sharga (00:35:25) - So historically speaking, it would seem more likely than not that we'd see at least a mild recession. The people who say, well, if we would have seen one through this cycle, we would have already seen it often overlooked the fact that it can take 24 months after the Fed's rate hikes are done, to see the full effect on the economy.

Keith Weinhold (00:35:45) - Economies are complex and cycles move slowly. They do so, historically speaking.

Rick Sharga (00:35:50) - That's one thing. I look at the other and without getting to Inside Baseball for your listeners, is something called a yield curve inversion. Yeah. And that's when when the bonds markets sense a disruption in the force and think that Darth Vader may be hitting the economy, but basically it's when the the yields on longer term investments like ten year Treasury bonds switch places with the yields on shorter term investments like two year Treasury bonds. So the yield on a two year investment is actually higher than the yield on a ten year investment. And when you have that inversion, that's what they call a yield curve inversion.

Rick Sharga (00:36:23) - And the last eight times that's happened we've had a recession follow not always a long drawn out recession, but there's always been a recession. And this particular yield curve inversion cycle is one of the deepest and longest ones we've had in a long time. And again, using history as a precedent. That doesn't seem to be really good reason for this cycle to behave differently than the last eight half. Having said all that, we may get lucky. The fed may pull a rabbit out of its hat and actually execute that rare soft landing instead of a recession. If they do, we'll still feel the economy slowdown that's almost a given. And if they don't, if we do have a recession, every economist I speak with tells me the same thing that it's likely to be a very short, very mild recession because all of the economic fundamentals underneath are still very, very strong. And, you know, employment, wages, productivity and so forth and so on. So likely to see some sort of slowdown this year, Keith, whether it turns into an actual recession or is just very, very slow growth, that's the most likely scenario for the rest of 2024.

Keith Weinhold (00:37:30) - Well, Rick, as we wind down here, the. Last thing I'd like to ask you about is in a recession, what typically happens to real estate, because you and I both study history and something that I often say here on the show is oftentimes you need to look at history over hunches, for example, I think it's easy to have a hunch that when mortgage rates rise while home prices are definitely going to fall. No, actually, if you look at history, when mortgage rates rise, home prices typically rise because rising rates typically mean the economy strong. And another one is when home prices are up. Well, a lot of people think that others want to then jump into the housing market and buy when they see that prices are up. So then when home prices are up, well, that means rents must fall since everyone's buying. But no, these two things typically move together home prices and rents. It's about history over hunches. So with that in mind, talk to us with your historical research on in recessions, what typically happens to the real estate market?

Rick Sharga (00:38:28) - Typically, home sales go up from the beginning of recession to the end of a recession.

Rick Sharga (00:38:33) - And in fact, with the notable exception of the last recession, the Great Recession, housing is very often helped the economy recuperate from a recession and recover. And that's particularly true in the new homes market. Home prices also typically go up from the beginning of recession to the end of a recession. So you could have some short term disruption. You could see home sales volume or home prices dip slightly at the beginning of a recession. But historically speaking, in every recession except the Great Recession, we've actually seen both home sales and home prices go up. And to your point, higher mortgage rates do not historically equate to lower home prices. What they do equate to is home prices going up at a slower rate. And this last cycle has been very unusual because historically, we've never seen mortgage rates double in a single calendar year until 2022. And in fact, that year rates didn't double in a calendar year. They doubled in a couple of months.

Keith Weinhold (00:39:33) - And tripled overall.

Rick Sharga (00:39:34) - And they tripled overall. So if you look at that, we did see home prices actually decline in some markets, although nationally the number never went negative.

Rick Sharga (00:39:44) - And we saw home price appreciation drop off pretty dramatically but still stay positive on a year over year basis. So it's been kind of interesting. This has been a very unusual cycle for a lot of reasons, but historically speaking, your spot on a recession does not spell doom and gloom for the housing market. Whether you're talking about owner occupied homes or rental properties.

Keith Weinhold (00:40:06) - Rick and I talked about the general economy today. Next week, Rick is going to join us again, and we're going to focus squarely on the real estate market. So no long goodbyes, Rick. We'll see you next week.

Rick Sharga (00:40:18) - See you soon, Keith.

Keith Weinhold (00:40:25) - Yeah. Strong insights from Rick, as usual. To help sum it up, recession or not, expect some sort of economic slowdown later this year. It's expected to be mild. That's what Rick shared with us. And if that happens, expect less rent growth. Then in a recession, home prices tend to go up. That's what really happens. Wage growth keeps outpacing inflation. Now the longer that trend continues, expect more rent growth in the future.

Keith Weinhold (00:40:57) - But of course the real rate of inflation is slippery to measure. I think you could still make the case that wage growth isn't really higher than inflation. So to me, that part's actually not that bullish. Rick believes mortgage rates will stay near 7% until the fed makes their first rate cut. We discussed monetary policy today. And you surely know that's what the fed does. They control the flow of money and interest rate policy. We did not discuss fiscal policy. We're not going to next week either. Fiscal policy is something that Tom Wheelwright and I often do together. And what is the difference? Well, fiscal policy is the tax and spend side. When you think of fiscal think tax and spend, and it's often congressional committees and elected officials that make those fiscal policy decisions, not the fed. They're making the monetary policy. That's the difference. This is get rich education. So after all, we do often have these learning moments. There's more of Rick Saga next week as we pivot from talking about the broader economy this week.

Keith Weinhold (00:42:05) - And then next week, we'll really drill down on the housing market, including more on property price growth prospects, which regions are growing or shrinking, rent growth prospects, and any warning signs that investors should take notice of today. Hey, what? I'd like to think that I don't ask much of you, the listener. I'd like to ask you if you can help me out with one fairly quick thing today. I'd really appreciate it if you get value from the show here. Whether that was, say, last week's episode on what is retirement anyway or from, say, a few weeks ago, why inflation is actually an immoral force, or the latest trends like the content of today's and next week's show, or my upcoming breakdown of why Western US homes cost more than eastern US homes and other content like that that you just aren't going to find anywhere else. I'm simply asking you for your feedback. This takes the show from one way communication to some two way communication. Please consider leaving me a podcast rating and review, whether that's on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or wherever you listen to the show.

Keith Weinhold (00:43:17) - Just do a search for, for example, how to leave an Apple Podcasts review so you can see how to do it. And then I'd be grateful for that. Rating and review more next week on the future direction of the housing market I'm Keith Weinhold. Don't quit your day dream.

Speaker 4 (00:43:37) - Nothing on this show should be considered specific, personal or professional advice. Please consult an appropriate tax, legal, real estate, financial or business professional for individualized advice. Opinions of guests are their own. Information is not guaranteed. All investment strategies have the potential for profit or loss. The host is operating on behalf of get Rich education LLC exclusively.

Keith Weinhold (00:44:05) - The preceding program was brought to you by your home for wealth building. Get rich education.com.

Direct download: GREepisode495_.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 4:00am EST

Mon, 25 March 2024

Get our free real estate course and newsletter: GRE Letter

Time, health, and money are three key resources in your life. Learn about their trade-offs.

“It’s not at what age I want to retire, it’s at what income.” -George Foreman

I discuss at least three definitions of retirement:

1-The time of life when one permanently chooses to leave the workforce.

2-To remove from service.

3-When you become job-optional.

4-When you stop doing mandatory income-producing activities.

Social security, pensions, 401(k)s, and residual income from real estate and stocks are all discussed.

Compound interest is faulty. Compound leverage can help you retire young.

“After the first $2M-$3M, a paid off home, and a good car, there is no difference in the quality of life between you and Jeff Bezos.” We discuss.

I briefly cover the antitrust case against the NAR, making the 5-6% commission paid by the seller largely a thing of the past.

Rents are up 2% annually, the biggest gain in thirteen months, per Redfin.

Learn 15 reasons why single-family rentals beat apartments.

I discuss two specific addresses—one in Memphis and one in Little Rock. Our Investment Coaches help you free with these and other income properties and your strategy at GREmarketplace.com.

Resources mentioned:

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GetRichEducation.com/494

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493: Why the Fed Should NOT Lower Rates, Spartan Summit Presentation

Complete episode transcript:

Keith Weinhold (00:00:01) - Welcome to GRE. I'm your host, Keith Weinhold. Do you want to retire? What is the definition of retirement today, anyway? In fact, with just 2 or $3 million, would you be as happy as the world's richest man, Jeff Bezos? I'll break that down. Then I discuss key trends in the rental housing market today on get Rich education. When you want the best real estate and finance info, the modern internet experience limits your free articles access, and it's replete with paywalls. And you've got pop ups and push notifications and cookies. Disclaimers are. At no other time in history has it been more vital to place nice, clean, free content into your hands that actually adds no hype value to your life? See, this is the golden age of quality newsletters, and I write every word of ours myself. It's got a dash of humor and it's to the point to get the letter. It couldn't be more simple. Text GRE to 66866. And when you start the free newsletter, you'll also get my one hour fast real estate course completely free.

Keith Weinhold (00:01:16) - It's called the Don't Quit Your Daydream letter and it wires your mind for wealth. Make sure you read it. Text gray to 66866. Text gray 266866.

Corey Coates (00:01:33) - You're listening to the show that has created more financial freedom than nearly any show in the world. This is get rich education.

Keith Weinhold (00:01:49) - We're going to go from Andover, England, to Andover, Massachusetts, and across 188 nations worldwide. I'm Keith Weinhold, and you're listening to Get Rich education. Around here, we say that financially free beats debt free. And for many, financially free means retirement. Now, you might be far from retirement, but those with the most foresight are those that begin with the end in mind. And it can be rather dreamy for some to think about retirement and then others don't want to retire. I'm asking you, do you want to retire? Do you ever want to retire? In fact, we posed that very question to our general education audience. I've got those results that I'll share with you here later, and it is really interesting.

Keith Weinhold (00:02:41) - But let me give you some perspective. First, I think that some young people fall into the trap of daydreaming about retirement. Oh, you might want to retire someday, but look, you can't dream about it too much. You've got to live in the moment. Because if you retire a traditional retirement age, those people tend to look back on their younger years and regret the things that they didn't try when they were younger. Don't quit your day dream, but don't dream about older age too much when you're younger. With the wealth building concepts that we discuss here on the show every week, you don't have to be that old when you retire to me. What sets the stage for you being able to retire is when you reach the point of being job optional. At what point are you job optional? That is a key turning point and for you, as soon as you're job optional. You might want to retire at that point, but you don't want to retire so soon that things will be iffy on whether or not you run out of money before you run out of life.

Keith Weinhold (00:03:49) - The best way to avoid that situation is to build your residual outside of work income alongside you during your working years, and then you won't have to merely guess on if a certain lump sum amount is going to be accumulated and sufficient. Now, one definition that I like for retirement is that you stop doing income producing activities that you don't want to do. All right. That's one definition. What you've done there is that you stopped sacrificing today for some imaginary tomorrow. If you stop doing those mandatory income producing activities. Look, you've got three key resources in your life time, health, and money. When you're younger, you'll trade away your time and even your health for money. That's because you feel like you have an abundance of time and health and not much money yet. But as you progress through life continuing to make this trade, your time and your health become more scarce, resources no longer abundant ones, there will come a point in your life where working will cost you more than retiring. You don't want to get to that point.

Keith Weinhold (00:05:09) - Now. You probably see no sheets of paper with the squares that you can hang up. There's 52 boxes in a year and is divided into 90 sections, one for each year of your life. And it shows you graphically in your face how many weeks and years you really have left. And by the way, I cannot get myself to hang up one of those sheets. That is just too much of an in my face reminder of my own mortality. Okay, I'm not doing that, but what do you like to do? Do you like canoeing or reading books or running in five K races? Well, if you read five books a year and you're going to live 50 more years, let's just 250 books for the rest of your life. Now, that sounds like quite a few, but when you're done, you're done. Do you have some best friends that you see, say, once a year? Do you live a long ways from your parents and you only see them once or twice annually, or at this rate, then you might only see your friends, say 31 more times.

Keith Weinhold (00:06:17) - And if your parents are older, what if you only see them 18 more times? That might sound like quite a few, but when that's done, that is done. Now this can get a little depressing. But what I'm helping you do here is identify what's important to you in your life. A lot of people don't have any real hobbies outside of their jobs. People feel sad and unfulfilled and can never see themselves retiring when this is the case. Now, you might enjoy drinking with your friends. All right. Sure, but that's not a real hobby. Hopefully you have the ambition to know that there are a lot of things that you really want to do, and you need to find the time in order to do those things. Well, here's the good news you are the one that's in control of how much of your time on earth you spend doing those activities are spending time with those people. Now, I was chatting with one woman about retirement. Gosh, this was interesting. And she told me that she doesn't want to retire.

Keith Weinhold (00:07:23) - Okay, well, she justified her stance by saying, who wants to stay at home? And I'm thinking, who wants to stay at home? I found that a really curious answer. Why does retirement mean staying at home? Like if you don't go to work, you'd stay at home. So maybe this person didn't have any hobbies. I mean, I would think that retirement would include the time and ability to travel. Well. So retiring and staying at home or not at all identical to me. A few years ago we had financial expert Kim Butler here on the show. You might remember that really intelligent woman. She was a retirement detractor, not a fan of retirement. The definition of retirement to Kim, if you remember, is to remove from service. That was her definition, meaning that she'll no longer serve others. I'm not saying that's right or wrong. That's her perspective. Well, I think that you can still serve others in retirement. Take a leadership position at your church, coach kids baseball, volunteer at a homeless shelter.

Keith Weinhold (00:08:28) - And even if retirement does mean to remove from service, or you probably served others at a full time job for decades, probably even for most of your life. So it's okay to have others in turn serve you in retirement. Well, today I'm here asking you, do you want to retire and what is retirement and not giving you some food for thought, let me discuss some more formal definitions of retirement first before I continue here. Now if you go and Google what is retirement, the word age appears after that as a fourth word, suggesting that you might select what is retirement age. Well, the former boxer George Foreman, he said it well. He said it's not at what age I want to retire. It said what income. Yeah. The first retirement definition that you find though, is the time of life when one permanently chooses to leave the workforce. All right. Well, that's actually a good short definition. And it'll show you that the traditional retirement age is 65 in the US and a lot of other developed countries too.

Keith Weinhold (00:09:39) - But in the US today, full retirement age when you can collect full Social Security benefits is age 67. If you were born in 1960 or later, and the earliest that you can collect benefits is 62. But do you know what the average monthly Social Security check amount is today? It is $1,767. Now, that amount can vary a lot depending on the recipient type, but it gives you some idea that that is only a supplement to your other income that you've got to figure out. And a sad and paltry $1,767. I mean that right there. That may very well be a motivator to make you want to invest well elsewhere. The old standard is that retirees need 80% of the income that they had when they were working, but were more abundantly minded. Here at GRI, I'd like to think that your income could go up in retirement as you keep adding cash flowing assets. But in a recent survey of consumer finance, the mean retirement amount saved of all working age families, the complete family here, not just the individual, is just 269 K.

Keith Weinhold (00:10:58) - That's not per year as retirement income. That's just the lump sum to live off of. Now some workers, especially government employees, they have a pension. That's where you don't have to just draw from a lump sum at the end of your life, like you would at the end of your life, like you would with a 401 K. So a pension that's a predetermined livable amount that you're paid each year in retirement, it's often based on the percent that you earn during your working years, say 75%. That's why most people like a pension within a 401 K, because pensions are about the perpetual income, not the lump sum, where you just hope that it lasts. But pensions are expensive. So the private sector really started phasing them out beginning in the ninth. 80s. Really in the US retirement. What that used to mean is turning 65 and drawing a pension and Social Security. I mean, that's what you'll hear your grandparents talk about. Now for us in younger generations, remember, your 401 K withdrawals must begin between age 59.5 and 70, and you must begin paying tax on it at that time.

Keith Weinhold (00:12:13) - Now, there's been a flurry of research about advances in longevity. Some of the more optimistic ones even say that if you're currently under age 55 and you get to the age of 65 in good health, you're likely to live to be 125 plus, if that comes true or even partially true, that tilts toward not accumulating a lump sum in retirement, but having an income stream from something like income producing real estate or stock dividends. You really need to focus on that income stream. If you're going to live a few decades longer than the current life expectancy. Look, when you make the production of ongoing income part of your ongoing investment strategy, you don't need what many retirees think of as the 4% rule. You probably heard of it what the 4% rule is. That's a popular retirement withdrawal strategy that says that you can safely withdraw the amount equal to 4% of your savings during the year that you retire, and then you're supposed to adjust for inflation each subsequent year for, say, 20 or 30 years. Well, that imposes serious limits.

Keith Weinhold (00:13:28) - I mean, that is synonymous with the life deferral plan, like a 401 K, where you voluntarily reduce your income in your working years to participate in an employee sponsored plan that isn't even designed to produce income until you're older, trading away pieces of your 30 year old self to get pieces of your 80 year old self back, you're drawing down on your big pot that you have saved for retirement. And instead, if you've been adding income producing investments for a decade or more, what you won't have to draw down at the limiting 4%, you've got to, of course, figure out inflation. Those retirees that are tapping into one lump sum amount, like from an employer sponsored plan a 401 K or a 403 B, they just try to guess at the future inflation rate. That's all any of us can do. And a lot of times they safely assume 4%. Around here we talk about how the real world inflation long term is almost certainly higher than that. So if you've got income from real estate and say you even do want to have your real estate paid off in retirement, you may or may not want to pay it off since you're ten and services your debt.

Keith Weinhold (00:14:41) - Well, you know, when it comes to inflation, rents tend to stay indexed to inflation. So your residual cash flow is pretty well protected from erosion to inflation. I've got some good news. You might be able to retire substantially sooner than you think. That's because if you're age 20 or 30 or 40 or 50, whatever, most planners, they project your wealth from a lump sum that grows with compound interest or compound interest is faulty, as we know it's degraded down after you account for inflation, emotion, taxes, fees, and volatility. Luckily for you, you have more than weak, impotent, and deluded compound interest because in addition to your residual income, you're going to have bigger lump sums than others because you had compounding leverage, not compounding interest. Even if you had zero real estate cash flow in retirement and you've got leverage, you made lots of 20% down payments on properties that appreciated, say, 5% a year. That means you were leveraged 5 to 1 and you got a 25% return in that first year of each rental property that you owned and is any Gary devotee knows that 25% is one of just five ways you're paid.

Keith Weinhold (00:16:07) - This is why you can actually retire sooner than you're thinking. With help from leverage. What you've done is collapse time frames. Understand that when you're in your retirement years, most people they have a U shaped spending pattern. Yes, u shaped spending in retirement because you tend to spend a lot of money in your early retirement years. You're traveling, you're living it up, and then you get a decade or two older. You slow down, you stay at home and spend less the trough of the U. And then your expenses go up before end of life. Care. Yes, you shaped spending patterns in retirement are common. And I know I talked about slowing down there at the trough of the year, but of course you won't be slowing down. It's just that others have tended to. Now, a really interesting topic that has circulated among many lately, and I believe that this was first proposed and debated on Reddit or X, and that is this after the first 2 million or $3 million a paid off home in a good car, there is no difference in the quality of life between you and Jeff Bezos, the richest man in the world.

Keith Weinhold (00:17:29) - That's the topic. What do you think about that? 2 or $3 million is attainable. You might already be there or beyond it. And of course, this says nothing about an income stream. So let's presume that there isn't one. All right. Well, in response to this topic, Spencer here from Orlando says I strongly disagree. Private jets complete immunity to health care costs and the ability to donate sums that change lives are all heavy hitting things that you can't do with $3 million. Tug from New York says, I agree 100%. Things like vacationing on a private island or a superyacht they may be cool to experience, but these are not necessarily things I'm thinking of when I think of happiness and anonymous respondents says Bezos's 420,000 acres probably have several views. That would be my view. Glenn, from Florida, says I have a paid off 975 square foot home, a 2018 Honda Cr-V, and not much spare cash. But I do have a wife going on 49 years who loves me, so I am richer than most millionaires like Quay.

Keith Weinhold (00:18:43) - I don't know where he's from, Mike says. I disagree with the 2 million to $3 million thing. I have some wealthy friends and they say that the sweet spot is 10 million to 100 million. In this zone, you can live very comfortably, but you're also able to blend in easily enough with most of the middle class. When you eclipse $100 million, typically you're involved with something public invisible, and then security and other considerations become much more of a problem. All right, that was his take, Mike keys. And then we had a number of others point out that $2 million is not enough to fly private, which makes a big difference to your quality of life. And yes, they do have a point there. I have flown private once and there is a substantial difference. Finally, Tanner's got a good point here. He says, I agree there is no significant difference in quality of life. Having safety, security, education, some autonomy and growth potential is key. The difference between a regular vacation and a $50,000 vacation is negligible, and it is the same with cars, food, watches and anything materialistic.

Keith Weinhold (00:19:54) - That's what Tanner says. All right, well, to summarize that for you here, and this is also parallel with my belief is that I disagree with this Bezos thing, with the 2 to $3 million net worth in your necessities taken care of. There is a difference between that life and Jeff Bezos life. But remember, the claim is that there was no difference. However, that difference is not that vast. That's my opinion. And yes, one can say that no amount of money can bring you happiness, but with money, you can buy time that you can fill with happiness and those that you love. Now that you have some perspective in different viewpoints, maybe you're better able to answer that question that I asked you at the beginning. Do you want to retire? And here it is, our poll that was run on our Instagram Stories. It asked, do you want to retire and blow those words? It showed a happy couple on vacation holding hands and the result was yes, 58% of you want to retire and the nos were 42%.

Keith Weinhold (00:21:06) - If you've given extraordinary service to humanity, I say sure. Thank you for your great service to humanity. Congratulations. Go ahead and retire more straight ahead. As I discussed the most proven retire early vehicle of all time and key shifts in the real estate market, and how you can accidentally build wealth with it. Positive leverage. This is episode 494. You're just six weeks away from an unforgettable episode 500 I'm Keith Reinhold. You're listening to get Rich education. You know, I'll just tell you, for the most passive part of my real estate investing, personally, I put my own dollars with Freedom Family Investments because their funds pay me a stream of regular cash flow in returns, or better than a bank savings account up to 12%. Their minimums are as low as 25 K. You don't even need to be accredited for some of them. It's all backed by real estate and that kind of love. How the tax benefit of doing this can offset capital gains and your W-2 jobs income. And they've always given me exactly their stated return paid on time.

Keith Weinhold (00:22:19) - So it's steady income, no surprises while I'm sleeping or just doing the things I love. For a little insider tip, I've invested in their power fund to get going on that text family to 66866. Oh, and this isn't a solicitation. If you want to invest where I do, just go ahead and text family to six, 686, six. Role under the specific expert with income property, you need Ridge Lending Group and MLS for 256 injury history from beginners to veterans. They provided our listeners with more mortgages than anyone. It's where I get my own loans for single family rentals up to four plex's. Start your prequalification and chat with President Charley Ridge. Personally. They'll even customize a plan tailored to you for growing your portfolio. Start at Ridge Lending group.com Ridge lending group.com. What's up everyone? This is HGTV. Tarek Moussa, listen to get Rich education with Keith Reinhold and don't.

Speaker 3 (00:23:31) - Quit your day dream.

Keith Weinhold (00:23:43) - Welcome back. To Get Rid of Education. I'm your host, Keith Weinhold. You might want to know what I think about the ruling that was made ten days ago.

Keith Weinhold (00:23:50) - With respect to the antitrust case against the Nar. I was asked to speak on television about it. I put more about that in last week's newsletter, so I don't have too much more to tell you here. The high point is that the standard 5 to 6% commissions are gone. Sellers used to pay that completely. That commission amount was split between their seller raisin in the buyer's agent. What really happened here is that the lawsuits argue that the Nar and brokerages kept buyers and sellers out of the commission negotiation process, and that led to higher overall costs. And really, the result of this is that it should make some agents lower their fees in order to stay competitive. We should end up seeing lower sales costs when one sells a property. Some estimates are that agent commissions will be down about 30%. Perhaps half of America's 2 million agents will lead the industry. We'll see about that. But see, sellers are still going to want to get the most money for their property that they can, and they're still going to be using comparable sales.

Keith Weinhold (00:24:54) - So that's why it remains to be seen if it really affects listing prices at all. Overall, the Nar continues its waning influence in the real estate industry. Before we discuss the rental property market, you know, I find this kind of upsetting. I mean, do we need to politicize everything? Redfin recently reported that the majority of U.S. homeowners and renters say that housing affordability affects their pick for president. I mean, this is getting ridiculous. That's according to a Redfin commissioned survey conducted by Qualtrics, 3000 US homeowners and renters were surveyed. Those surveyed were worried about the lack of housing inventory and affordability. I mean, how do you really know which presidential administration to blame that on for who to give credit to? I mean, Biden did recently roll out a plan to help with housing affordability. And then, on the other hand, Trump is famously known as a real estate investor, after all. Let's talk about the single family rental market. Do you know what the typical rent range is for a single family rental in America today? Well, the John Byrnes Single Family Rental Survey shows us that most respondents report monthly rents in the $1750 to $2250 range.

Keith Weinhold (00:26:18) - There are about eight ranges here, and 54% of single family reds are in that range. So really close to $2,000. And yeah, I myself have many or even most of my single family rentals in that same range near $2,000. Rents are lowest in the Midwest and Southeast, where a lot of operators report average rents 17 to $1800, and then it almost $2,700. California rent outpaces much of the nation. And you know what? If you just heard that right there, you'd actually think that California is the place to invest and that the Midwest and Southeast or not. But it's just the opposite of that, because it's not about the absolute rent amount. It's about that ratio of rent to purchase price. And that's what makes the Midwest and Southeast the best places. And a third region that's an investment sweet spot is what I like to call the inland Northeast Pittsburgh, Harrisburg, Philadelphia, even Baltimore. Although Baltimore is getting a little coastal, it's the Inland Northeast that has the numbers that work, not the coastal northeast like New York City in Boston and those really high priced markets where rents don't keep up proportionally.

Keith Weinhold (00:27:39) - And of course, there are pockets of opportunity elsewhere, like Texas and some other markets. And note that no part of Pennsylvania is on the East Coast at all, not even Philadelphia. None of it touches the coast. I am indeed a native Pennsylvanian. You get these little geography lessons from me interspersed here at gray., Redfin tells us that rents in the US now this is both apartments in single family. Now we're just talking about single family. Earlier rents are up 2% annually. That's actually the biggest gain in 13 months. Yes, a pretty modest increase there as rent amounts have just been really pretty steady for the last year. And so much new apartment construction took place last year that there is quite a bit of apartment supply to soak up in certain metros, and you might even see concessions. On some of these. I mean, if a new apartment complex is just finished, you know what's sitting there? 250 vacant units all at once. So you're seeing some apartment owners try to entice renters with one month's free rent for a 12 month lease, for example.

Keith Weinhold (00:28:51) - The single family rental market is in better shape from a demand supply perspective than apartments are. See, what's happened, though, is that with the Airbnb market becoming both oversaturated in some markets and then cities cracking down on short term rentals in other markets, it's there's some STR owners have turned their single family homes from Airbnbs over to long term rentals, and that brought a little more supply out of the long term rental market. More places have bans on short term rentals, and gosh, I just had an awful short term rental experience last month when I stayed at one. I usually go for hotels and that's what I'll be doing for a while again,? Now, Adam data, they have some great stats for us here. They reported that rental margins are increasing in about two thirds of the nation. That's some good news. But the increase is still pretty small. And they show us the top five counties for single family rental yield. And they used three bedrooms in their single family rental yield comps. And they did it in larger markets of a million plus.

Keith Weinhold (00:30:03) - All right. So these are counties of a large population where you're getting the best cash flow today basically on single families. Fifth, and I'm surprised that this is Riverside County California. That's the Inland Empire. You sure want to check landlord tenant law in a highly regulated place like California. Fourth is Cook County, Illinois. That's Chicago. Third is Coahoma County, Ohio. That's Cleveland. The second best single family rental yield is Allegheny County, Pennsylvania. That's Pittsburgh. And first number one for rent yield on single families is Wayne County, Michigan. That's Detroit. We've discussed Detroit on the show before. It has a stigma. It seems like the only way to make the stigma disappear is to visit. And you're going to find Investor Advantage properties in a lot of those counties through our gray investment coaches here at Gray marketplace.com about single family rental homes. Now, some asset types like apartment buildings or perhaps self-storage units, they have economies of scale and some other advantages over single family rentals. But single families are a favorite.

Keith Weinhold (00:31:18) - They might have the best risk adjusted return anywhere today, even after 2008 Great Recession, those that had bought for cash flow persevered and even thrived. In fact, single family rentals have at least 15 distinct advantages over a larger apartment building, some that you probably never thought about before. And as I discussed this, don't think that I dislike apartment buildings. Okay, it's likely not the most advantageous time in the market cycle for apartments. It's tenant quality. Single family rentals attract a better quality of tenant. They take better care of the premises. Then there's the neighborhood. Single families tend to be in a better neighborhood. Then there's appreciation. Properties tend to appreciate better over time. Fourthly, there's the school district. They're more likely to be in a better school district. Then there's the retention. Tenants stay longer, creating less vacancy expense. And the aforementioned neighborhood and school districts are why they stay. And you've got common areas. A lot of people don't think about this single families. They don't have these common areas to clean and maintain.

Keith Weinhold (00:32:29) - Apartments have hallways, stairs, larger rooms, and common outdoor grounds that a custodian needs to service. And this is another overlooked profit drag that apartment investors miss in their PNL in their profit and loss projections. And I miss this expense on my first ever apartment. By then, there's utilities in single family rentals. Tenants often pay all the utilities. They even care for the lawn. The larger the apartment building is, the more likely you'll, as the owner, be the one paying utility costs like heat, electricity, water, wastewater, and landscaping. Then there's divisibility. What if you've got property that's not performing the way you hoped it would? Well, if you had ten single family rentals, you can sell the 1 or 2 that are not performing. And with a ten unit apartment building, you must either keep or sell all of the units. It's not divisible. Fire and pestilence. You know, fire and pests. They are more easily controlled in single family rentals where there aren't common walls, even if you're at.

Keith Weinhold (00:33:34) - Ensured these diffuse conditions. They often affect multiple units and families in larger complexes. Financing is a big deal. Income. Single family rentals. They have both lower mortgage interest rates and lower down payment requirements than apartments. You can secure ten single family rental loans if you're single, 20 if you're married at the best rates and terms through the GSEs, the government sponsored enterprises Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, with 20% down payments and apartments, rarely, if ever, have 30 year fixed rate terms like 1 to 4 unit properties do, and you can get more than 10 or 20 of them. But the financing terms are not going to be as good. And what about vacancy rate? That's true that if you're a single family's vacant, your vacancy rate is 100%. If your fourplex has one vacancy, then your vacancy rate is only 25%. But the same is true if you own four Single-Family rentals in one is vacant. Then there's management. If you hire professional management, your manager would likely rather deal with higher quality single family residence.

Keith Weinhold (00:34:44) - If you're self-managing, this is a demographic that you would probably rather handle yourself to supply and demand. There aren't enough low cost single family rentals that make the best income producing properties. Demand exceeds supply, and this is going to continue in both the short and the medium term. Then there's market risk. This is another overlooked criterion. Yes, criterion. Does anyone even know that the singular of criteria is criterion?, you've got to keep your properties filled with rent paying tennis. They have jobs. So if you think you're going to be able to buy ten rental units in the near future with your tenured apartment building, that's only going to be in one location, leaving you exposed to just one geographies economic fortunes instead with, say, ten single family rentals, you could have four in little Rock, three in Dallas and three in Birmingham. And then your exit strategy, that's an important consideration, especially for newer investors years down the road when it's time for you to sell your income property, hopefully, after years of handsome profits, there's a greater buyer pool for your single family then there's going to be for your apartment building.

Keith Weinhold (00:35:58) - More buyers can afford the lower price, and then, unlike apartments, you even have access to a pool of buyers that might want to occupy your property themselves. To live there as an owner occupant, there might even be your current tenant that buys it from you. So those are some of the attributes of single family rental homes. Again, I really like apartment buildings too. I could go on with more advantages for apartment buildings. If you've been meaning to grow your portfolio, you know when you have this information, don't let it be like two well-meaning friends that meet at the gym. And then they say, hey, we should grab lunch sometime. You know what? That is a nonstarter. You got to put something on the calendar to make something happen. You can't make any money from the property that you don't own. You can just copy me and buy the same types of properties in the same places where I buy. Get pre-qualified for a mortgage loan and we'll help you find property. We talked about retirement earlier.

Keith Weinhold (00:36:58) - I mean, the earlier you get into real estate, the better off you're going to be. From that perspective, the best time is today as you get leverage working for you and inflation profiting working for you. What's going on today is with this lower affordability, first time homebuyers, they have often now got to spend years saving for a down payment while they rent. And in the meantime, you can solve their housing problem. They become your renter in these freshly renovated homes or new build homes. And I'll even give you two addresses before we leave. Today. Though in today's tightly supplied market, you know, sound income properties can seem more rare than a pop up. And that's actually useful. Supply is short overall, but because of our long standing relationships, we have a good selection right now. This first of two properties is on Crane Road in Memphis, Tennessee. It's a single family rental. The purchase price is $169,500. The rent's 1253 bed, two bath, 1265ft². The year built is 1964.

Keith Weinhold (00:38:12) - Ask your investment coach about the fresh renovations there. And the other one is in little Rock, Arkansas. And I think I told you that when I made my little Rock real estate visit, I had some extra time and I visited the Bill Clinton Presidential Library, which though, although it's called a library, presidential library, is there really like museums a tribute. To the past president. What I don't think that I did share is that in the entire Bill Clinton presidential library, I could not find one mention of Monica Lewinsky. Not one shred of evidence that that ever took place. Nothing.

Speaker 4 (00:38:50) - Let me tell you something. There's going to be a whole bunch of things we don't tell Mrs. Clinton.

Keith Weinhold (00:38:58) - Nothing whitewashed. All the evidence at all.

Speaker 5 (00:39:01) - Nothing there.

Keith Weinhold (00:39:03) - This property is on Duncan Drive in Little Rock, Arkansas. The single family rental has a purchase price of 117 nine. Rent is 975. Three bed, two bath, 888ft². In the year it was built was 1967. So these are some of the lower cost properties that you find at Gray Marketplace.

Keith Weinhold (00:39:25) - If you prefer brand new builds, brand new construction, we can help you with those two. You typically can't find these deals on public facing platforms that are broad like the MLS or Zillow, and it's completely free. Contact your gray investment coach and learn about these properties. Rehab details and others like them. Learn about their occupancy status and more. And if you don't have a coach, pick one. They'll help you out at Gray marketplace.com. Until next week. I'm Keith, landlord. Don't quit your Daydream!

Speaker 6 (00:40:02) - Nothing on this show should be considered specific, personal or professional advice. Please consult an appropriate tax, legal, real estate, financial or business professional for individualized advice. Opinions of guests are their own. Information is not guaranteed. All investment strategies have the potential for profit or loss the host is operating on behalf of yet Rich education LLC exclusively.

Speaker 7 (00:40:30) - The preceding program was brought to you by your home for wealth building. Get rich education.com.

Direct download: GREepisode494_.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 4:00am EST

Mon, 18 March 2024

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I state the reasons why I DON’T believe that the Federal Open Market Committee should lower interest rates. Rates are currently normalized.

Watch the full Spartan Summit Presentation here. The first half is played on this episode.

President Biden is trying to help the housing market’s poor affordability and undersupply.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell made recent remarks on the real estate market. He emphasized the lack of supply.

High rates = strong economy

Low rates = weak economy

Lowering interest rates to zero is artificial and introduces distortions in an economy.

If we have a recession, we need “rate cut ammo” in order to make cuts at that time.

Lowering rates also sets up an inflationary environment. That’s bad for society, but leveraged income property investors benefit.

A “Fed pivot” means that the FOMC changes from raising rates to lowering rates, or vice versa.

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