Get Rich Education (general)

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Compound interest in stocks gets worn down to less than nothing due to: inflation, emotion, taxes, fees, and volatility.

I focus on the little-understood deleterious effects of volatility.

DON’T focus on getting your money to work for you. Learn what to focus on instead.

Compound leverage and OPM are the wealth-building flexes.

We discuss how to use a lower down payment to achieve a potential 20% cash-on-cash return with the BRRRR Strategy. Join our live, virtual event for this at: GREmarketplace.com/webinar

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Complete episode transcript:

 

Keith Weinhold (00:00:01) - Welcome to GRE. I'm your host, Keith Weinhold. Compound interest is weak. What kind of iconoclastic heresy is that? Oh, I've got even more. Including. Don't get your money to work for you. This is a wealth building show. So why don't we discuss 401 days in IRAs here? It's precisely because they're not designed to build wealth. We'll get into that then. A way you can achieve higher property, cash and cash returns than you can with buy and hold real estate today and get rich education.

 

Robert Syslo (00:00:38) - Since 2014, the powerful get Rich education podcast has created more passive income for people than nearly any other show in the world. This show teaches you how to earn strong returns from passive real estate, investing in the best markets without losing your time being a flipper or landlord. Show host Keith Wine, who writes for both Forbes and Rich Dad Advisors and delivers a new show every week. Since 2014, there's been millions of listeners downloads and 188 world nations. He has A-list show guests include top selling personal finance author Robert Kiyosaki.

 

Robert Syslo (00:01:06) - Get Rich education can be heard on every podcast platform. Plus it has its own dedicated Apple and Android listener. Phone apps build wealth on the go with the get Rich education podcast. Sign up now for the get Rich education podcast or visit get Rich education.com.

 

Corey Coates (00:01:23) - You're listening to the show that has created more financial freedom than nearly any show in the world. This is get rich education.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:01:39) - We're going to go from Saint Helena Island to Helena, Montana and across 188 nations worldwide. I'm Keith Weinhold, and you are listening to get Rich education. Compound interest is weak. Compound leverage is powerful. And with both available to most anyone, why don't you have more leverage in your financial life? That was a long time listener. You probably understand that if you're a newer listener, your reaction to that is like, wait, what? I mean, your inner self is telling you something like that challenges my existing longtime belief about how compound interest builds wealth. In fact, I will fight to protect this core belief. Even Albert Einstein purportedly called compound interest the eighth wonder of the world.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:02:36) - All right, well, let's break down compound interest until it looks as impotent as it is, as pathetic as it is, and as fallacious as compound interest is in the sense that it applies to your life as an investor. Now understand, I once thought the same limiting way that perhaps you once did, and that most others still do. When I was out of college and at my first job, I thought that there could be nothing better than getting my money to work for me with compound interest. Oh, and then maybe even the layer on top of that with the tax efficiencies of, say, a 401 K, 400 3B4 57 plan or an IRA. Then I took a real interest in this stuff, and I soon learned that I don't want any of those things because they don't build wealth. I don't want compound interest. I don't want to focus on getting my money to work for me. And I don't want any of those government sponsored retirement plans either. And that's why today I don't have any of them now, I remember when I had this one particular appointment, a financial planning appointment a few years ago, and I had it with what I'll call a conventional financial planning firm.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:03:56) - Maybe I remember it so well because it was an in-person meeting. It was in a tall office building that I went to and visited in downtown Anchorage, Alaska. And when I was in this money manager's office where basically what he was trying to do is win me as a new client. That's fine. That's his business model. Well, he had this big paper and cardboard sort of laminated charts thing resting on an easel, and this chart was prominently placed in his office so that I or anyone could see it. It showed the rate of return over time of. And I forget which index it plotted. It was either the Dow or the S&P, but no matter. It showed the return line going up and to the right for over 100 years. Your classic chart go up. It gave the impression to a prospective new client like me that, oh well, I had the opportunity to buy into this. And if I just invest my capital with this money manager and pay him fees for managing it for me now, I was at the point where I was starting to become better educated on these sorts of things compared to a layperson, for sure.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:05:06) - And I had been a real estate investor for a while at this point. Well, that physical chart in his office resting on an easel, it showed something like an 8 or 10% stock market return over time. Let's just be kind and call it 10% annually. And that's the first time in my life that I ever remember asking the question when I asked that money manager something like the chart shows a 10% market return, but what would my return be after inflation? Emotion taxes, your fees and volatility. Mic drop. You could hear a pin drop. I'll tell you what. That money manager almost froze. He didn't know what to say. I just remember, he began his reply, starting with talking about how inflation was low at the time. And yes, CPI inflation was low at that time, but he just didn't have a good answer for me. He was overwhelmed. He may have not ever had anyone ask him a question like that in his life. That sure is how he acted. And needless to say, I left his office that day without ever becoming one of his investors.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:06:17) - All right, so then let's dig into it. I've scratched the surface a little. What is the problem with, say, a 10% average annual return compounded over time? I mean, that sounds rather attractive when it's presented that way. Well, first, what do you think that the real rate of. Long term inflation is some make the case that it's still 15% today, even though the current CPI is 3 or 3.5%, and anyone that's looked at it feels that measure, the CPI is understated. So what do you think you want to use 6%. How about 6% as the long term true diminished purchasing power of the dollar? Okay then will your 10% stock market return -6% or you're already down to a 4% inflation adjusted return? Then there's the emotional component to buy and sell at exactly the wrong time, because no matter what people say they're going to do, most people want to sell when stocks are low because they're discouraged and they're just tired of taking their losses and they want to cut their loss. And then conversely, people want to buy when stocks rise because they're encouraged and they say they're a momentum investor and they experience FOMO if they're not in and riding the stocks up, well, what did you just do then? You just sold low and bought high.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:07:42) - How much does that emotional effect drag down your 4% inflation adjusted stock return that were already down to now? I mean, are you already at less than zero? Then there's taxes. Even in a 401 or IRA, you either pay the tax now or you pay the tax later. It's not tax free. How far below zero is your real return? Now that it's taxed? The IRS won't adjust your tax for inflation on a capital gain. Then tack on the investment fees, which can be 2% or higher. If you've got a professional money manager like the guy I met with in downtown Anchorage, or the fees can be really low if you are in an index fund. But how far below zero are you now? And that brings us to the last drag on compound interest in the stock market. We're not even done yet, remember? Okay, all we've done now is deduct out inflation, emotion, taxes and fees. What about adjusting it down further for volatility. Let's look at how deleterious volatility is to this floored compound.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:08:48) - Interest builds wealth thesis right here. Because you know on a lot of episodes we've just glossed over that. It just comes down to math. If you're up 10% one year and down 10% the next year, you're not back to even run the math and you'll see that you've lost 1%. That's just simply math. And now I'm going to get wonky here for a moment, and I'll use a more extreme example to demonstrate my volatility point for you. But I must get that way in order to debunk this myth about how compound interest builds wealth, or the getting your money to work for you builds wealth. Time spent making up lost returns is not the same as positively compounding your return. Any time you're looking at the annual average performance of an investment, it is vital to check how that performance has been calculated. And bear with me here for a minute, because this is substantive. Say your collection of stocks or whatever it is, just your overall portfolio value. It doesn't matter. Say it's up 50% one year, down 40% the next, then 50 up 40, down 50, up 40 down again.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:10:05) - All right. That right there was a 5% average annual return. But your average annual return. That is a lie because a 5% return through arithmetic performance. That sounds better than what really just happened to your money. So in a mutual fund prospectus, you might see that as a headline number, the 5% average annual return. But that's a lie in the small print. That's where you're more likely to see this CAGR, the compounded annual growth rate, and the CAGR. That's usually going to be worse than what the average annual number is. That headline number. And in our example, the CAGR is -5.1%. In this case that's the geometric figure. That's what you really want to look at not the arithmetic one. It looked like the market was up 5%, but your real return on your money was down 5.1%, a delta of 10.1% then. And the more volatile your returns are, the wider and wider this difference becomes. Now, if there were zero volatility, your average annual return, the arithmetic thing and the CAGR, the geometric thing, they would be the same and there wouldn't be any need to have this discussion.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:11:35) - This discussion is. Germane because volatility exists in the stock market and its related derivatives. So small differences over time compound and see really the problem is over the decades in your conventional retirement account, if you think that you're going to be quadrupling your money over time, but you only double your money over time, now you can see how this becomes a major problem. Come time for your retirement when it's too late. All right. Now, if you didn't follow that part because there were a few numbers flying around, just remember this time spent making up for lost returns is not the same as positively compounding your return inflation, emotion, taxes, fees, and volatility that just broke down any conventionally invested nest egg to less than nothing. This is why volatility is worse for investments than most people think. Well, we had someone write in to our general mailbox a while ago. And by the way, we like to hear from you. You can always communicate with us here at GR either through email or voice at get Rich education.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:12:52) - Com slash contact that's get rich education comment. I'd love to hear from you and really appreciate having you as a listener. Well, a listener wrote in on our inbox. They're asking why, if we're a wealth building show, why don't we talk about the benefits of 401 or IRAs? Well, it's squarely because those things don't create wealth. They aren't even designed to build wealth, but they create the illusion of doing so, partly due to the myth of compound interest that I just explained. But there's more outside of any employer match for IRAs and just generally investing cash in mutual funds or stocks or ETFs, they all have another gigantic problem. It could be a problem even bigger than the compound interest fallacy, which I just addressed. And that is all you're trying to do is get your money to work for you. Getting your money to work for you does not build wealth. Show me some evidence that it does. All right. Well, what's the problem here with these 41K and IRAs? I think you know, where I'm going is that you don't get any leverage.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:14:06) - Where is your leverage? Every single dollar that you lock away there means that you don't get the opportunity to ethically use three x or four x of what you've invested in OPM, other people's money, which you can build wealth off of. Where is your compound leverage with those conventional vehicles? It's gone. It never existed in the first place. Plus there's typically zero monthly cash flow. Plus you could have it invested where you don't legally have to pay any tax. Instead any tax, because retirement fund investors either pay tax today or pay tax later. Real estate can permanently mitigate income tax like you can get with real estate depreciation and absolutely zero capital gains tax on your real estate with the 1031 exchange. But let's not let the compound interest versus compound leverage case go to rest here just yet okay. How does then compound leverage build wealth instead? Well, the most available means for you to get access to leverage OPM is with real estate. Well, let's just look at what's going on today. Today, per the Fhfa, national home prices, they're up 6.6% year over year.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:15:26) - That's the latest figure that's not too different than historic norms. All right then. Well, if one year ago you had made a 20% down payment on a property that's 5 to 1 leverage, so you just take your 6.6% home price appreciation rate multiplied by five, and there's 33% for you. You went from a 6.6% return on the asset to a 33% return on your money, because you got the return on both your money and the bank's money. The majority is from the bank, OPM. So if you got a 33% return in year one, maybe it's 26% the next year and 21% the following year. It will go down over time as equity accumulates. And that's compound leverage. That's the wealth builder. And notice what else? Now that you know how destructive volatility is to returns, there is less volatility in real estate asset values. So now you're really on the path because you have a durable wealth builder. And then of course in real estate those high leverage returns are one of just. Five ways you can expect to be paid, but that one is the biggest leveraged appreciation.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:16:41) - That is the biggest return source of the five over time. And now you better understand why you don't want to set up your investor life to optimize getting your money to work for you. You don't want that. It's to get other people's money to work for you. And my gosh, mathematics makes compound interest in getting your money to work for you look amazing. But the real world proves that compound interest in getting your money to work for you is a farce, and it will keep you working at a job, maybe a soulless job until you're old. But the sheep believe it. You're listening to this show, so you're not a sheep. You're not among the masses. If you do what everyone else does, you'll only get what everyone else got. If you want wealth for yourself. All right, well, then, do you see that? You would have to think differently. And do you think that you would have to learn new things and then act differently than the masses? Well, yes, of course you do.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:17:41) - You can either go through life as a home run hitter or as a bunter. Most people are afraid to do anything other than learn how to be a bunter. And that's why the most popular personal finance platforms give the worst advice that limit you and keep you small. It's because they're talking to people with average or below average mindsets, not below average intelligence, but an audience of average or below average mindsets, which are the masses and they're just striving to get to a level of mediocrity, okay. They cater to financially irresponsible people that are just trying to get up to a mediocre level. And you know what? I was recently listening to one of these shows, I'll call it, a get rid of your debt and invest for compound interest and get your money to work for you shows. One caller called in. He and his wife got a $60,000 windfall from an heir. And they're wondering what they should do with the money. And they owned a home valued at 500 K, with 320 K left on the mortgage, which was a 3.25% interest.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:18:53) - And the guidance that the host had for this caller. I'm not kidding. Here was to use the 60 K to pay the 320 K mortgage down, so then they'd only owe 260 on the mortgage. I'm not kidding. That was the recommended course of action. And this is not an aberration. I've heard this same guidance with other callers on this conventional show. I mean, the opportunity cost of such a misguided move, what has he done when he pays down his mortgage? 60 K like that. He lost liquidity, he lost leverage. And it didn't even help with his cash flow. Because with a fixed amortizing loan, your monthly payment is the same the following month. Anyway, that 60 K, instead of being used to pay down a mortgage that could have been leveraged again by purchasing, say, a 250 to 300 K rental property. So my point is that conventional guidance does not build wealth in financial freedom. When you're actually young enough to enjoy it, you do things like learn how to get out of debt and then solely grind for decades, doing so, all while paying the opportunity cost of being leveraged less for the opportunity cost of targeting something like debt free, which is the wrong target rather than being financially free.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:20:18) - It's just like, if you want a wealth coach, well, then you don't hire and listen to guidance from a mediocrity coach. It's the same is if you want to learn how to skydive, then don't ask a basketball coach because you're going to die. We practice what we preach here at GRA. Now me what would I do if I had a paid off rental property or paid off home? Well, first, I've never had any residential rental property paid off in my life. Not one. Although I could, I'd recognize the opportunity cost of zero leverage. But just say, hypothetically, a paid off home fell in my lap. What's the next thing I do? I would go get the maximum loan against it, and then I'd have access to cash that I could invest in other properties. But what about these new loans that I'm taking out? What happens with them? I'm not concerned because both tenants and inflation pay it down passively, without my involvement at all, without my grinding for it at all, without me trading my time for dollars at all.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:21:27) - Well, I am really glad that we got into this here in the first segment of today's show. If you're near the show, it probably gave you a starting point for. Some new topics to search. Maybe you should start with learning the difference and reading more about average annual return versus compounded annual growth rate. It's really eye opening. And yes, you've heard me say on the show before that stock returns are dragged into negative territory with inflation, emotion, taxes, fees and volatility. And what's new here today is that I took the volatility component and broke it all the way down for you. There is a real paradox out there in America and elsewhere. You know, people spend all this time learning about how work works, zero time learning about how money works. And yet money is the main reason that people go to work. So congratulations so far on educating yourself some more today. Suffice to say, compound interest does not build wealth. If you're focused on getting only your money to work for you, you are really missing out on leverage through OPM.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:22:38) - And the good news here is that you actually don't have to believe everything that you think. Even if you thought the same way for years or decades. Chances are you're by yourself when you're listening to me right now. So that way you can change your mind all on your own without anyone thinking that you're wishy washy. Is it iconoclastic? Yeah, sure it is. If you're going to live an outsized life, if you're going to have an outsized impact in this world and on others, then you don't want to get labeled as normal. I mean, me, myself. I want nothing to do with normal. You can learn more on topics like this with our Don't Quit Your Day Dream email letter that makes it visual for you. Get it free at get Rich education com slash letter I write every word of the letter myself again. Get it at get Rich education.com/letter or it's quicker while it's on your mind right now. Text gray to 66866 to get the letter. Text gray to 66866. More straight ahead on how to potentially achieve cash on cash returns of 20% plus with real estate today.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:23:58) - That's next. I'm Keith Reinhold. You're listening to get Rich education. Your bank is getting rich off of you. The national average bank account pays less than 1% on your savings. If your money isn't making 4%, you're losing your hard earned cash to inflation. Let the liquidity fund help you put your money to work with minimum risk. Your cash generates up to an 8% return with compound interest year in and year out. Instead of earning less than 1% sitting in your bank account, the minimum investment is just 25 K. You keep getting paid until you decide you want your money back there. Decade plus track record proves they've always paid their investors 100% in full and on time. And I would know, because I'm an investor, to earn 8%. Hundreds of others are text family 266866. Learn more about Freedom Family Investments Liquidity Fund on your journey to financial freedom through passive income. Text family to 66866. Role under the specific expert with income property you need. Ridge lending Group Nmls 42056. In gray history from beginners to veterans, they provided our listeners with more mortgages than anyone.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:25:21) - It's where I get my own loans for single family rentals up to four Plex's. Start your pre-qualification and chat with President Charlie Ridge personally. They'll even customize a plan tailored to you for growing your portfolio. Start at Ridge Lending group.com Ridge lending group.com.

 

Ken (00:25:48) - This is Rich dad advisor Ken McElroy. Listen to get Rich education with Keith Reinhold and don't quit your daydream.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:26:06) - We're talking about how to profit more and faster than with buy and hold property with the BR real estate investing strategy will tell you more about a live virtual event tomorrow night, with more about it where you can attend from the comfort of your own home and have any of your questions answered in real time. And can is with me today to talk about it. Welcome in. Hello, Kate. Thank you. Thank you for the invitation to be.

 

Ken (00:26:32) - A part of the get Rich education podcast.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:26:34) - Oh, we're honored to have you. Tell us a little more about yourself. First, you're Memphis based and you're part of a real estate family. Your wife is a realtor.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:26:44) - Yes, that is true. I have been in.

 

Ken (00:26:46) - The real estate industry in Memphis, Tennessee since 1992. I believe I was born to be in real estate. If real estate's in my DNA. If you cut me open little houses, duplexes, commercial buildings and multifamily apartments will drip out. I am pure real estate.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:27:05) - And you definitely came up in the right place for that. For us major metros, you're in perhaps the best cap rate market. Now. A lot of people are familiar with fix and flip real estate, maybe something that they've seen on HGTV where you buy low, you fix it up and you sell it for more. In fact, a lot of people think that's what real estate investing means. And others, they think of real estate investing more passively by identifying a good property that's already fixed up for you with a tenant in it, and ready property management. That's sort of the turnkey way. Tell us more about the BR, where I think of it as using elements of both the fix and flip world and the buy and hold world, putting them together to produce high returns and even infinite returns.

 

Ken (00:27:54) - That is correct. So what we're doing and what we offer, it's a hybrid, turnkey and BR, we call it BR key a nice. So basically that acronym as you know it stands for buy, renovate, rent, refinance and repeat. And we've added the key to it because we do all of the turnkey worked for our investor clients. We do all of the heavy lifting. So we turn BR into a passive investment where we find properties through our sourcing, we vet the properties and then the properties are offered to investors in as is condition. We provide a desktop appraisal which provides a future estimated after repair value after the property has been renovated. We seek out appraisers who are certified, who are licensed in the areas in the markets that we provide properties in, so that we're not just shooting at the door on a future value, basing the values on what Trulia says or Zillow or Redfin and what have you. So it's a real certified value from a licensed appraiser. Then we have licensed contractors to provide the scope of work and an estimate on how much the renovations are going to cost.

 

Ken (00:29:24) - And then we do we have a relationship with an in-house property manager. The property manager markets the property, leases the property out, and our target market is partially section A, government subsidized tenants, because we found that in the Memphis, Tennessee area is that section eight pays more than market rate in most instances. And I like to say that section eight rent payments, the recession proof, they're Covid proof, they're pandemic proof. I have not received a call yet. And section eight says, hey, we could not get your section eight payment out because of Joe Biden not being able to sign the check, or he didn't work last week, or Donald Trump could not sign the check or what have you. But time and time again, those section eight payments, even during the pandemic, they always showed up at the beginning of the month without fail.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:30:25) - I have rented to section eight tenants myself, and I can attest to that. That check just keeps coming in. You have to have a case manager come in and take a look at the property.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:30:38) - Prior to that section eight tenant being placed. Section eight a government subsidized housing program for those that qualify. But now that we've talked about the tenant, some what which is the rent are if we look back at the first are in the borough that is the rehab. You could also call that first are renovation. And really what you're doing there is you're eliminating friction for a lot of people because one thing that turns. People away from the Bir or concerns them about the BR. Is that first r the rehab because they find it daunting or intimidating to manage contractors? A lot of people don't want to have to manage contractors, and those that do, they don't want to do it again. But the thing is, is that you formed a team of contractors, property managers, project managers to manage those contractors and lenders to assist with that entire BR key process, making it pretty hands off for the investor.

 

Ken (00:31:37) - That's absolutely correct. So we have the relationships with contractors your locally that we've vetted that have proven themselves.

 

Ken (00:31:46) - They're true blue and these contractors have withstood the test of time. We develop relationships with electricians, plumbers, heating and air conditioning guys, roofers, painters, flooring experts, guys that can do kitchen cabinets, countertops, everything from the router to the tuner. And we also have excellent relationships that we've developed not only with the big boxes, Home Depots, Lowe's, but there are actually many locally owned mom and pop family owned supply houses that we are able to get better prices on some items versus the big boxes. So if those savings are passed on to the investor clients that our project managers and contractors are renovating those properties for.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:32:41) - I want to talk more about how that's actually going the actual track record with that team. But before we do, if we talk bigger picture, let's look at some real numbers on an example property so that one can understand the overall process. On why BR is attractive to investors, and why they can put substantially less money into the deal than they can with what we would call a deal that's already completely done for you.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:33:08) - Turnkey.

 

Ken (00:33:09) - Yes, and I like to use a $100,000. It's a nice round number, right.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:33:16) - Inflation is basically it, but you can still find some.

 

Ken (00:33:19) - Yes. So an example said hypothetically, if we had a vetted property that was available to be purchased by an investor client, and that appraised value after repairs is estimated to be $100,000, we simply take 75% of that after repair value of $100,000, and we arrive at 75,000. So we work in reverse, in a sense. And if the contractor has estimated that the renovations, labor and material cost is going to be $25,000, 75,000, 75% of the 100,000, -$25,000 in renovation expenses that would leave $50,000. So the actual purchase price of the property would be $50,000 plus $25,000 in renovations. So the investors approximate all in is $75,000. That doesn't take into consideration title company fees, homeowners insurance. We encourage all of the investor clients to get a six months builder's risk policy from one of our sources that we use here locally, but of course, all of the investor clients are free to use or choose whomever they'd like to.

 

Ken (00:34:53) - So the property is purchased for 50,000. The renovations, which are high quality, are done for 25,000. So now the investor is all in for $75,000. Now we're at that second stage, and many times the renovations are completed before the property is rented. So though that second and third are kind of interchangeable, sometimes we the property's refinanced before it's rented, sometimes it's rented before it's refinance. So in a perfect world, the property has been rented to a client. So if the client's all in for $75,000 and we have what we created, our own 1% rule of thumb. So if the investor is all in for 75,000 and the numbers are still based on renting it for maybe 1% of the value. So we find that our rent versus price return is more than 1%. So in many cases we blow that 1% out of the water. We're talking about the.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:36:01) - Monthly rent being 1% or greater of the overall value or purchase. Price of the property.

 

Ken (00:36:06) - Yes, sir. That's true. That's correct. So after the property is rented for, let's say, $1,000 per month.

 

Ken (00:36:15) - Now it's time to get the property appraised. We do have lending partners that are very experienced with investment refinancing, whether it's conventional or whether it's DSC or refinancing. So now the appraiser comes out to the property after the investor client has made loan application. The investors appraiser comes out and voila, the property is totally renovated. It's rented out. The appraiser appraises the property for $100,000 plus or minus. It may appraise for 95, it may appraised for one T, and so on, so forth. So what happens with the investment refinancing the loan to value or LTV is usually 75%. It's not typical for the lender to refinance at 80% or 85% of the refinance. But with investment financing, refinancing nowadays is typically 75%, so the praise is for 100,000. The lender lends 75% of the 100,000, which is 75,000 on the refinance. So now the investor who has paid cash or possibly obtained a hard money loan or private financing in order to purchase the property, their coffers are replenished with it. 75,000 were either the hard money or the private.

 

Ken (00:37:42) - Long is paid off, and the investor now has a property that they've refinanced for 75,000. That's worth 100,000. But the key is now they've refinanced and they're at that final, or now they're able to repeat the process, rinse and repeat, re-up whatever you want that are to me. But it basically means you can reuse that $75,000 again to purchase your second property. Third property, you're able to scale quickly or pay off the hard money lender. And the hard money lender says, hey, I don't need this $75,000. Do you own it again to buy property number two? We're property number three. And it just goes on. And I'd like that word that to use key efficient.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:38:28) - Right. Because in at least one of the scenarios you described there, you would have no money left in the deal and 25% equity in the property.

 

Ken (00:38:37) - That is correct because even though the investor is all in for 75,000, that new roof, the new windows, the new luxury vinyl plank flooring, the new HVAC system and so on, so forth.

 

Ken (00:38:53) - Those improvements cause to happen is called force appreciation. It's worth more than $75,000 because of all of the improvements that have been made to $25,000 to new light fixtures, the pretty paint color, the new mailbox, the landscaping. So we found that many of the houses that we offer, they once were the ugly ducklings of the neighborhood. Now they're the beautiful swans of the neighborhood, and they're the homes and houses that people flock to that they prefer to living.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:39:30) - Yeah. So we're talking about some of those rehabs you might LVP the floor do a kitchen fluff up. By that I mean maybe you're saving and painting the cabinets, but replacing the countertops, new light fixtures, perhaps keeping bath tile in place, but glazing it and then bringing everything to code?

 

Ken (00:39:47) - Yes, sir. That's absolutely correct. And we do have a really nice design for our properties. We use really nice neutral colors when it comes to the tile, to the paint, the flooring, the vent hood color, so on, so forth.

 

Ken (00:40:02) - And you mentioned code enforcement, which we had excellent relationships with the Memphis Shelby County Code Enforcement officers, whether it comes to the electrical inspection, plumbing inspections, what have you, we have really good relationships with those government officials.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:40:20) - You might want exotic colors for your own home, but in a rental property you want to go neutral. It can take a while to rent a purple kitchen. Now talk to us about the the timeline to rehab and refinance a property. How many months or days does that take? And I'm looking for an not an optimistic scenario, but a realistic scenario and a real life track record of what you've done. Because I've known that our followers have bought a number of properties from you.

 

Ken (00:40:49) - Yes, our average turnaround time right now is approximately 90 days. The quickest turn that we've ever done from acquisition all the way to the final stage of refinancing was 32 days. But that particular property there was the scope of work of $15,000. It was really clean. Okay, already had a new roof, the AC system was already top knots, so there was just very few things that had to be delivered.

 

Ken (00:41:21) - But on average it's about 90 days from start to finish. And in this part of the country the weather's quite nice, especially during the summertime. It's very hot, but we are hit occasionally in the wintertime with snow and ice, and it paralyzed the city of Memphis because we're just not equipped the way the northeast is and some other parts of the country when it comes to snow and ice. So we push back our estimated time frame to complete a Berkey property during the winter months to about 120 days. But our average is 90 days, and we tend to we like to under-promise with the 90 days, but we may hit our target in 75 days or 80 days, and we just recently had some properties that we should be able to smash the all time record of 32 days, where we may be able to get from a buy to refinance done, and maybe 21 days.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:42:21) - Wow. That's the result of a well refined system. And I would submit to most any listener to try to do that across state lines or even in your own home market, as you're trying to manage contractors and codes and inspectors and appraisers and lenders and everything else, you're going to join us with our investment coach narration, co-hosting Gre's live virtual event.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:42:47) - Alex, a little bit more about what one can expect there. Attending the live virtual event to learn more about what.

 

Ken (00:42:54) - One can expect is that we will have, I guess, actual numbers on properties that are available, scopes of work, rental amounts that are based on our studies with the data that section eight provides, as well as the local market rents for cash paying tenants. So I do want to make it clear we do have cash paying tenants as well. But we do offer to the investor clients a choice. If we have a four bedroom property, for example, that section 8th May possibly pay 1700 a month for, and then all of a sudden we get a cash paying tenant that's willing to pay 1600. We present the information to the investor to say, hey, would you rather hold out for the $1,700 section eight tenant? Or would you rather go with the $1,600 cash flowing ticket that works at Blue Oval City, the electric vehicle plant that's on the outskirts of Memphis, about 30 miles outside of Memphis at the end.

 

Ken (00:44:01) - Who knows? Real soon. It was just announced yesterday that X, I and Elon Musk, they've chosen the city of Memphis to be the headquarters for the world's largest supercomputer. So we're looking forward to the benefits and economic boom that that's going to add to the Memphis market.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:44:23) - All right. So we've got some economic drivers behind this. Learn more about vetting tenants. Berkey and importantly, the value added here. By bringing that team, especially those contractors that are being managed for you with the Berkey join Jerry's live virtual event. It's where you can attend live in real time. You can ask questions if you wish that way, and you can do it all from your own home. Gree investment coach extraordinaire Naresh is going to co-host it along with my guest Ken. Here it is free to attend free learning and if you wish, expect a buying opportunity for property conducive to the BR. Often single family homes two, three and four bedroom properties in Investor Advantage Memphis, you'll learn which properties are right for this and which ones are not.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:45:10) - Attend tomorrow night it is Tuesday the 25th at 8:30 p.m. eastern, 530 Pacific. Attend tomorrow and sign up now at GR webinars.com. You can do it right now while it's top of mind for our live event that is at Gray webinars.com. Hey, it's been great having your insight. Thanks so much for coming on the show today.

 

Ken (00:45:33) - Thank you. You're welcome.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:45:40) - Between last year and this year, more followers have bought from this provider in this system than any other in the entire nation. Strong deals with less out of pocket for the investor. And maybe you don't prefer a section eight tenant. You can ask about that during the virtual event. And again, what was I saying here last week? This is the event that's a bigger deal than Olympic handball. Really though I would like for you to attend. This is entry level housing. So you're going to own a scarce asset that everyone wants. Expect to be in for a little of your own skin in the game, and you'll own a leveraged asset of tangible value that down the road.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:46:27) - Demographics say that people will desire to first rent from you and then later buy from you. If you think that it can benefit you and you like to learn, then I'd really like you to attend tomorrow night. I invite you Tuesday the 25th at 8:30 p.m. eastern, 530 Pacific. Register free now at Gray webinars.com. Until next week. I'm your host, Keith Wild. Don't quit your day dream.

 

Speaker 5 (00:46:58) - Nothing on this show should be considered specific, personal or professional advice. Please consult an appropriate tax, legal, real estate, financial or business professional for individualized advice. Opinions of guests are their own. Information is not guaranteed. All investment strategies have the potential for profit or loss. The host is operating on behalf of get Rich education LLC exclusively.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:47:26) - The preceding program was brought to you by your home for wealth building. Get rich education.com.

 

Direct download: GREepisode507_b.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 4:00am EDT

Join our live, virtual event for Memphis BRRRR properties on June 25th. Free. Sign up now at: GREmarketplace.com/webinar

The homeownership rate has fallen due to low affordability. This means that there are more renters.

There are still just one-half as many housing units as America needs. But it had been one-quarter.

New duplexes, triplexes, and fourplexes are vanishing. I describe six reasons why.

Two entire US counties now have a median home price of $2M+. Learn where they are.

It’s better to be an investor than a landlord or flipper.

GRE Investment Coach, Naresh, and I discuss how to use a lower down payment to achieve a potential 20% cash-on-cash return with the BRRRR Strategy. Join our live, virtual event for this at: GREmarketplace.com/webinar.

Resources mentioned:

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GREmarketplace.com

Get mortgage loans for investment property:

RidgeLendingGroup.com or call 855-74-RIDGE 

or e-mail: info@RidgeLendingGroup.com

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Complete episode transcript:

 

Keith Weinhold (00:00:01) - Welcome to GRE. I'm your host, Keith Weinhold. Hold properties are vanishing, and sadly, they represent some really good property types that are hardly being built anymore. American housing is changing for good. Two entire U.S. counties now have median home values of $2 million or more. You'll learn where those are and learn about a specific real estate investing strategy, where investors are getting especially high yield returns in today's low affordability market. All today on get rich education.

 

Robert Syslo (00:00:37) - Since 2014, the powerful Get Rich education podcast has created more passive income for people than nearly any other show in the world. This show teaches you how to earn strong returns from passive real estate, investing in the best markets without losing your time being a flipper or landlord. Show host Keith Weinhold writes for both Forbes and Rich Dad Advisors, and delivers a new show every week. Since 2014, there's been millions of listeners downloads and 188 world nations. He has A-list show guests include top selling personal finance author Robert Kiyosaki. Get Rich education can be heard on every podcast platform.

 

Robert Syslo (00:01:09) - Plus it has its own dedicated Apple and Android listener. Phone apps build wealth on the go with the get Rich education podcast. Sign up now for the get Rich education podcast or visit get Rich education.com.

 

Corey Coates (00:01:23) - You're listening to the show that has created more financial freedom than nearly any show in the world. This is get rich education.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:01:39) - What we heard in 188 nations worldwide. I'm your host, Keith Weinhold, and you're listening to get Rich education. Last week, I covered a lot of bad news here as you and I uncovered some real estate problems. Of course, overall, when you're invested in real estate and obtain productive working income for yourself through tenants in their employment, you can almost always play another side of the coin and be profitable because, well, it really comes right back to the fact that real estate pays five ways simultaneously, for example, souring housing affordability. Well, that's bad for homeowners. That's bad news for people that are primarily want to be homeowners and not you. You're an investor. In fact, here's exactly what that means when you're the investor, the homeownership rate has fallen in in the past year.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:02:38) - It's gone from 66% down to 65.6% due to that low affordability. Okay. Well, that's just a 4/10 of a percent drop in the homeownership rate. And it is poised to fall further. Or what does that 4/10 really mean. Well, that's the proportion of Americans that don't own their homes. So then they have to rent. And this means that there are hundreds of thousands more American renters today than there were just a year ago. And that pushes up rental demand, rental occupancy and the price of rent itself. And that's what you get to capture off from a low affordability problem, which outsiders only think of as bad real estate news, because it is bad news through the lens of that one of your first time homebuyer. Now I want to tell you about the property types that are disappearing. Just vanishing today, and it's the degree to which it's happening that you probably aren't aware of. I'll also tell you why it's personally concerning to me, why this is all going on at all, and I don't even see any reason that it's going to turn around.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:03:52) - It's probably going to get worse. What's going on is basically that too many builders have thrown their duplex, triplex, and fourplex development plans out the car window like it's an Apple Corps on a summer road trip. They are vanishing. Yes, 2 to 4 unit properties vanishing. In fact, if you're a newsletter subscriber here, you got to see a jarring chart that shows this. And what you'll basically see is that in 2007, the number of 2 to 4 unit properties built just fell off a cliff. It flatlined, and it still hasn't gotten up. The amount constructed now is still just one half to one third of what it had been in pre global financial crisis years. Really they're only closer to a third. All right. So what we're talking about here is only about one third as many duplex triplex and fourplex starts today as there were 20 years ago. And this is sourced by the National Association of Homebuilders. And some call this entire phenomenon M triple M multi families missing middle. And whatever you call this disappearing act.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:05:10) - Before I get to the reasons for why this is happening, I've got to tell you that this disappearance, it hurts me a little. It's sort of heartfelt because as you know, I began this way with a fourplex that was my first ever property of any kind. You know, the story where I lived in one unit and rented out the other three. It was just an amazing way to start with a bang. Well, now, when we compare this paltry construction, this dearth of. construction today, when we compare that to both smaller property types and larger property types, that being single family homes and five plus unit apartment buildings, will construction of all three of these types fell hard around 2008. But here's the thing. Single family homes and five plus apartment buildings. They got back up around 2010 and they started resuming more building. But duplexes and fourplex, they never did. They never had that happen. The number coming out of the market that just kept flatlining. Those new starts. All right.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:06:16) - So why exactly is this going on with these vanishing 2 or 3 and four unit property construction types? Why this trend? Well, first, it's NIMBYism, not in my backyard ism primarily of those single family homeowners, because once people are comfy in owning their single family home. Well, then they don't want higher density duplexes in fourplex built in their area. They fear that it can lower their property values. It'll almost certainly increase the traffic around that area. And the second reason is that there simply just been less building overall of most all housing types. And I have discussed this elsewhere, so I won't get into it again. Yes, it is that erstwhile housing supply crash. A third reason for these vanishing 2 to 4 unit properties is the need for zoning reform and the adoption of what's called light touch density. Light touch density. That means a zoning strategy for more dense housing. And what are we up to now for? The fourth reason is that builders, they find more scale efficiencies when they build larger apartments.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:07:25) - Fifth is limits in international building codes, in international residential codes. And the sixth reason is that this trend began around 2008. These more recent work from home lifestyle starting in 2020. That means that residents can live in single family homes, and they tend to be further from the urban core, rather than 2 to 4 unit properties. And this lifestyle trend right here, that can mean that this disappearing trend for this property type continues. And there you go. They are the six reasons for why. If you were 2 to 4 unit properties are being built today, drastically fewer. And I lament this fact because see duplex the four plex neighborhoods, they can have good walkability where you don't always need a car to get everywhere. And yet at the same time, they still have ample green space. Now, conversely, some fourplex neighborhoods, you know, they can get to look and really junky. Well, they all have different owners. And then there are dumpsters all over the place, like my first fourplex was, and like my second fourplex was as well.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:08:33) - I really hope that builders become more attracted to the 2 to 4 unit space. See, with giant large apartment complexes, say 300 units. Well, the builder has to wait until the construction of all of those 300 units are done until they can start filling it with rent paying tenants. So therefore builders have to wait longer to start getting that rent income. But instead, construction of this missing middle housing that can be broken into phases. And that way units can be open when they're completed. And that provides early rent revenue to the builder and 2 to 4 unit properties. I mean, they really are an investor sweet spot, but due to builder and lifestyle trends like I'm describing, fewer are being built new. But please remember there were many missing middle properties built decades ago and they can still make good investment properties into the future. In fact, the first two fourplex that I bought were both built in the mid 80s, so there's still plenty that are already out there. The takeaway here for you is that you're going to be seeing fewer new ones, and that means that duplexes to fourplex is now take up a smaller proportion of America's housing stock, and that portion is positioned to become smaller and smaller going forward.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:09:56) - So it's not that death of these properties. We even have home builders at Gray Marketplace right now with new build 2 to 4 plex. So it isn't their death, but they are dying, waning in number. Now, Jerry recently got Ahold of some jaw dropping info here. I my gosh, now remember a few years ago, maybe even ten or more years ago when you probably heard something like certain small towns in California, Silicon Valley. They now had median priced homes that hit the million dollar mark. And you know, when you first heard that, you might have thought, oh, wow, it's not just neighborhoods, but entire towns in aggregate have hit the million dollar mark in some high priced American places. Well, then get ready for this. As housing affordability makes headlines in California in its wealthiest cities, continue to fight building more housing. We have two Bay area counties, not towns, but entire counties that have hit a milestone. The median price for sold homes there has climbed to $2 million or more.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:11:15) - We're not just talking 1 million anymore, and we're not just talking about one upper crust town, but two entire California counties now have median home prices of $2 million or more. And notice these are not asking prices. No speculation here. These are the values, the amounts that they have actually sold for. And this is according to a recent California Association of Realtors report. Median homes are now $2 million plus in which two Bay area counties, you might wonder? Well, first, Santa Clara County, which includes San Jose, they notched an even $2 million back in April. And yes, this is more than San Francisco County's $1.8 million. And the second county, it spirals even higher than that. The second California county, with median home prices of 2 million plus is San Mateo County. It's basically a county that lies between San Francisco and San Jose. And that's where the median home price sold for in San Mateo County, California, $2.17 million. Not just one upper crust town, but an entire county.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:12:38) - Not just $1 million, not even $2 million anymore, but $2.17 million. And this is not for a fancy, lavish home. This is just the median priced home in the middle and San Mateo County that is home to the nation's most expensive zip code, by the way. Atherton, California, where the median home price tops the charts nationally at $7.1 million. That's that is according to Compass Real Estate. And if that's not enough, homes are still flying off the shelves there. They're days on market is now at the lowest since 2022. And though all this sounds pretty astonishing right now, you know what? If you are listening to this episode ten years from now, well into the 2030s, you might think these were the good old days here. How quaint. Because over the next ten years, we all expect more inflation, and we've still got more housing shortage years between now and say, ten years into the future. And of course, here at URI, we don't tend to focus on the high priced markets, which tend to be on the coasts, things like this.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:13:55) - Really, it's just a harbinger of what's to come to more parts of the nation later on. What we do here is we help you win in real estate without being a landlord and without being a flipper. As a savvy investor that tends to buy either new or fixed up properties and might have a manager manage them for you, hands off is the place to be. Hands off is being an investor, and you get the best tax advantages this way to when your hands off and you know something. Some people that get into real estate investing, they think that they have to be a flipper, or that they have to be a landlord in order to make it profitable. Now, there's nothing wrong with those two disciplines. So much flipping or landlord. I was a landlord for a little while on my own properties. Most of my investment career. I use a property manager and I never flipped. It's just that these things flipping and landlord, they're not any sort of prerequisite to you being a successful investor. You can shortcut all of that with turnkey real estate investing or like with a different strategy that we're going to talk about later today.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:15:04) - What most people really want is the financial freedom that real estate investing brings. But in order to get there, it's often not the route that you think it is. It's typically not flipping or landlords. And, you know, really it's this way with a lot of things. For example, say that you want to own in ice cream business. Well, most people think that they have to start their own ice cream business from scratch. And like you need to find a space and you need to buy all the equipment and develop systems and go through the excruciating process of hiring all of your staff. No, a lot of times you can shortcut all of that by not starting your own ice cream business, but instead studying, vetting, and buying an existing ice cream business without having to start your own from scratch. Be strategic, study a little, shortcut the process and get in where it's profitable. You want the benefit of owning real estate without having to use a nail gun yourself, or being a manager where you're 25 tenants can text you.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:16:17) - What kind of life are you building for yourself? Then you want the benefit of owning an ice cream business. The way to get to the end goal. The path there is often different than you think. And here's another example that I can relate to, but I think that you will too. Do you have a favorite real estate? Influencer out there and they think about starting a podcast. Well, I personally know three real estate podcasters out there that have all quit. They produce some episodes and all three quit doing their podcast. And these are just among people I know and just real estate thought leaders. Just that space and all. Recent hosting your own podcast platform is a ton of work from. You need to have a huge bank of your own original content, to having the ability to book big name guests and then making sure they're prepared to. Making sure you have the right marketing team so that a podcast actually reaches the right people. It is work, work, work, and seemingly no one in this world knows that better than me.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:17:21) - With 500 plus episodes reliably released every single week since 2014, and we don't replay old shows either, there is nothing passive about this. There are so many shows today that if your favorite real estate influencer starts one, they're going to be competing with a lot that are already out there. I mean, anymore, even celebrities that start podcasts, they usually don't get any substantial reach or traction. All these people that start and quit their podcasts, they were too slow to realize that actually they didn't want to host a podcast. What they really wanted is for their voice to be heard. Well, the way to shortcut that, like with turnkey real estate investing or with buying an existing ice cream business, is that that influencer should have developed a strategy for being a guest on other shows that are already popular and established, probably by hiring an experienced and connected booking agent. That way, you've outsourced all of that marketing and research activity to another show that already did that for you. So the point is, be clear on getting what you want.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:18:34) - What is the goal that you want first, it's probably a large real estate portfolio built for leverage and income, and then work your way back to try to find the most efficient route to get there. And there are often shorter paths to get there than what you first thought. Now, when we talk about where are the best real estate deals today, you have to look harder than you did, say, 8 to 10 years ago. Coming up shortly, you'll have the pleasure of hearing an in-house chat with I in one of Gre's own investment coaches. We're going to talk about a strategy that specific and proven but underutilized in order to recapture those higher cash on cash returns like you could have gotten back in, say, 2015 and 2016. And for a time, I had been talking about how Newbuild properties and their builder interest rate buy downs, that they're really the place to be. And that's still true, but not to the extent that it was just a year ago, because today some builders, they're not paying down your interest rate for you as much as they did last year.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:19:39) - They're asking you to pay more toward it. Now. A few minutes ago, I told you about America's vanishing duplexes to fourplex. And if you're one of our newsletter readers, you got to see a jarring chart or two that demonstrates exactly what I was talking about there. And also in our newsletter, I show you great maps, real estate maps that beautifully demonstrate housing market trends and where the opportunities are for you. Also, in a recent letter, I showed you exactly where I'm getting 8% interest paid to me and what's basically a savings account. If you don't already subscribe, it is free. Our email letter is called the Don't Quit Your Day Dream letter. It's concise, valuable info that's just good, clean content that I put directly into your hands. It is easier to use than a website. Today's websites have paywalls and cookies, disclaimers or pop up ads. This is just the good stuff directly from me, straight to you. And you can get the letter now at get Rich education com slash letter that's get rich education com slash letter.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:20:50) - In a world of AI and bots, I actually write every word of the don't quit your daydream letter myself, just like I have from day one. And another easy way to start the free letter is text gray to 66866. Just do it right now while it's on your mind. Text gray to 6686616. I'm Keith Reinhold. You're listening to get Rich education. Your bank is getting rich off of you. The national average bank account pays less than 1% on your savings. If your money isn't making 4%, you're losing your hard earned cash to inflation. Let the liquidity fund help you put your money to work with minimum risk. Your cash generates up to an 8% return with compound interest year in and year out. Instead of earning less than 1% sitting in your bank account, the minimum investment is just 25 K. You keep getting paid until you decide you want your money back there. Decade plus track record proves they've always paid their investors 100% in full and on time. And I would know, because I'm an investor, to earn 8%.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:22:02) - Hundreds of others are text family 266866. Learn more about Freedom Family Investments Liquidity Fund on your journey to financial freedom through passive income. Text family to 66866. Role under the specific expert with income property, you need Ridge lending group and MLS for 2056 injury history from beginners to veterans. They provided our listeners with more mortgages than anyone. It's where I get my own loans for single family rentals up to four Plex's. Start your prequalification and chat with President Charlie Ridge. Personally, they'll even customize a plan tailored to you for growing your portfolio. Start at Ridge Lending group.com Ridge lending group.com. This is peak prosperity.

 

Robert Syslo (00:23:00) - Chris Martinson, listen to get Rich education with Keith Arnold and don't quit your daydream.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:23:15) - Hey, would like to welcome in Gray's extraordinary investment coach. He's booksmart because he's got his MBA. He street smart because he's an active direct real estate investor, just like I am. Before joining gray back in 2021, he worked for financial publishing companies and in the banking sector, too and elsewhere. And today is an investment coach here.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:23:36) - He helps beginning real estate investors understand the process of acquiring rental property, and he helps veteran investors optimize their strategies to save on taxes and more. Hey, it's terrific to welcome back Naresh Vizard. Thanks a lot Keith. It's been a while, but I'm looking forward to talking real estate before we're done. Today, we're going to tell you about an upcoming live GRE virtual event, where you learn how to get 20 to 25% of immediate built in equity through real estate. And before we do the race, let's talk about what's really going on. Besides giving GRE devotees free education and guidance like you do, you also help them find the best deals on income properties nationwide and for a time, brand new build to rent properties they look good in. Many still do with a lot of rate buy downs into the fives and even the fours on those new build properties. But this year, I learned that builders aren't contributing to buying down the race for the investor like they had last year, and that the onus seems to be more on the investor to buy the rate down with some of these builders.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:24:44) - So tell us more about what's happening in America's build to rent sector. Well, Keith, build to rent. For those who don't know, it's been around here at GRA. Bill to rent asset classes, build to rent real estate. But it's the concept of builders building real estate properties with the intention of selling them to investors so they can rent it out. So right now I live in a house that was built, and I bought it because the builder intended for somebody to buy it and live in it. That's not built to rent. Build to rent is the idea of.

 

Naresh Vissa (00:25:16) - Specifically selling it to investors like our listeners, like our loyal followers who live out of state and who want to rent the properties out to tenants. Now, Build to Rent was very hot and it's still popular. I don't want to call it hot, but it's still popular for those who want new construction properties. However, the rehabs are making a furious comeback because there was about a four year period from 2019 to 23 or so where you just couldn't find good cash flowing rehabs.

 

Naresh Vissa (00:25:50) - Right. And when I say rehabs, I mean these older properties that were built 50 years ago, maybe as long as 120 years ago there we have some properties in our inventory that were built in the late 1800s, and they've just kept being rehabbed and rehabbed and renovated. Buildings are making a furious comeback because they're cash flowing better. Previously, they were just cash flowing marginally better than new construction built to rent properties. Now, especially with a strategy called ver, which we'll talk about some more, you can have the opportunity to get cash on cash returns back to what you remember in 2016, 2015 where we're talking 15, 16% cash on cash returns. I mean, some of our BR clients or listeners who ended up buying BRS, they're doing 2021 all the way up to 30% cash on cash returns. So BR simply means buy, rehab, rent, refinance, repeat the cycle. So that's B followed by for Rs b r r r r buy, rehab, rent, refinance. Repeat the process again.

 

Naresh Vissa (00:27:10) - And it's during that refinance where investors are getting a good chunk of their down payment back. Because what happens in that refinance is after you rehab it and you read it, you rent it out at the target rent, which almost all of these are renting out at very aggressive high target rents. When you refinance it, the property appraises at a value that's much, much greater post rehab than when you initially bought it. And that's where you get essentially your money back. You can choose to keep it in with the mortgage company so you have more equity in the property, or you can take the cash back and use it to buy more BR properties. It's become a very popular. Form of real estate investing. People think when they hear this. Well, it sounds like flipping, right. This is not flipping. Flipping is kind of like day trading. You're looking to make a quick buck, whereas in this case you're not selling the property. You're keeping the property with the intention of renting it out and collecting the cash flow from your tenant.

 

Naresh Vissa (00:28:19) - So that's in a nutshell, what BRR is. And we are having a live event on Tuesday, June 25th at 8:30 p.m. Eastern Time. That's Tuesday, June 25th at 8:30 p.m. eastern. Time to talk about and go over this BR process. The bird key process or listeners are familiar with turnkey. Well we have BR key which is similar except it's using the BR method. And Keith, you probably know this and you've talked about it a little bit on your podcast. BR has become the most popular strategy that our investors are utilizing this year, 2024.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:29:01) - Yeah. Now back to the build to render the new build properties is attractive as they can be because they attract a certain quality of tannin and they're not going to have any maintenance or repair issues, most likely for quite a while. The thing with those is, oh, you might pay 300 K or more for a new build. Single family home in the builder rent style with 20% down payment, 5% for closing costs, you're out of pocket. 75 K.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:29:30) - One reason that this has become the most popular strategy for gray followers we're talking about here. The BR strategy is that you could come out of pocket with a lot less to begin with.

 

Naresh Vissa (00:29:42) - That's number one. Number one is we have some GRE followers who went into this Berkey and they put no money down. They got lucky. They initially bought the property, and the property appraised so much that they got their money back and their down payment was actually zero. They didn't make money on it, but what they allocated, what they thought that they would allocate 25% down, they ended up using that money since they got it back to buy a second property and then a third property and then a fourth party. We have one guy who bought six properties, all birds, because he didn't get I don't want to say, look, we're not making promises that you're going to put 0% down. That's not the promises that we're making. The worst case scenario is that you put 25% down and that's your standard real estate investment.

 

Naresh Vissa (00:30:27) - But there is a chance that you could put 15% down or 10% down if the rehab turns out really well. And if you get a good appraiser, there's a chance it can happen. But the goal here, again, is not to make a quick buck or to house hack. We're not taking shortcuts here. The goal here is simply to buy a property renovated or rehab it and drive up the rent price, drive up the value of the property, put a good tenant in there and call it a day. Collect those cash flows. Now I do want to say a few things about that process. So like I said, the first thing that you do is you buy. So first you buy, then you rehab. You do not have to do we call it Berkey because everything is done for you. So when people hear this, they're like, oh, this sounds like I live in Florida. I don't want to go to Memphis. And by the way, this specific market is in Memphis, Tennessee that we're focusing on.

 

Naresh Vissa (00:31:26) - We have burrs in Baltimore, Maryland and Philadelphia, Pennsylvania and Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. But we've identified Memphis as not just the hottest, but it just makes the most sense numbers wise. And so I want to go back to the point of, hey, you don't have to physically go or even go on Google and find handymen or rehab ers to do this for you, our Berkey provider. The best part is they do it all for you. It's completely taken care of. You literally just sign some papers. Once you decide that you like a property and the specs of the property, you sign some papers. They take care of it. The rehab takes about 90 days. Then from rehab to closing, it takes another 40 days or so. And then from closing to someone signing a lease that takes another 30 days to find somebody, stick them in there and takes another 30 days after that for the tenant to move in. So overall, this process can actually take just for one property. You can take six months.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:32:26) - Now. Naresh has touched on it somewhat. One conventional problem with the Burr strategy by rehab rent, refinance, repeat is that first are the rehab because it involves vetting and managing contractors, which is a real nightmare for many. So instead, we're talking about tapping into a system with a proven team of contractors and lenders and project managers to make it easy. It's known as Berkey, and it's in profitable Memphis.

 

Naresh Vissa (00:32:54) - Profitable Memphis. And I'll say this about Memphis, we're going to talk. Way more about this on the webinar. Highly recommend people go to GRI webinars. Com gri webinars.com. You can sign up for the webinar there. It's actually live. So this is not like something that you just can show up to whenever you want. It's a live event on Tuesday, June 25th at 8:30 p.m. Eastern Time. That's Tuesday, June 25th at 8:30 p.m. Eastern Time. Great webinars.com is how you can register. And like you said, we could have focused on Baltimore, Maryland or Pittsburgh. Memphis has really and I myself by the way, own five properties and four in Memphis proper.

 

Naresh Vissa (00:33:42) - And one is in the Memphis area and Mississippi, a suburb of of Memphis. And this I don't want to call it a town, because Memphis used to be one of the most popular towns in the south back in the day. But this city has really come up as a result of pandemic, of population growth, of even inflation. We've seen rents go up, we've seen the population go up. Memphis is not what you think of from eight years ago. Seven years ago when I first bought my properties. I'll admit, when I bought my first property seven years ago in Memphis, I had a lot of problems with tenants. I had a lot of problems with the city. I didn't like what I was reading about the police department, just all sorts of things. Not the police department, just crime in general. And Memphis has really turned itself around. Not completely turned itself around, but it's gotten better. And we're seeing it just on the investment side because that's where we're seeing appreciation growth. My personal properties, they're up since 2020, since January 2020, I was when I closed all my last Memphis property.

 

Naresh Vissa (00:34:49) - They're all up at least 50% in value. So it's a market that's still appreciating. But the most important thing because we are cash flow investors, not necessarily appreciation investors. It's great to get the appreciation, but the rents keep going up. And I actually today I've talked to a Berkey client, great loyal Jerry listener and follower who ended up buying three properties, and she's on her fourth one, or about to do a fourth one with this Memphis market provider. And when she told me her rents, I was blown away at how much these properties were renting for before the rehab. So it's not just the appreciation again, that goes up after the rehab, how much they were renting for before the rehab. We're talking less than $800 a month and post rehab. Her rents went up by nearly 50%, about 45% on average. House rehab is like three bedroom, one and a half bathroom. Homes initially she bought them. This is how a lot of the properties are. They only had two bedrooms and they converted one of the spaces.

 

Naresh Vissa (00:36:05) - The rehab were converted at no extra. You know, it's all inclusive of the rehab charges. They were able to find space in a lot of these properties that were two bedrooms to create a third bedroom and turn them into three bedroom properties instead of two bedroom properties, which also improves the value of the home. And you can get another body in there and increase the rent. So, Jerry, listeners have been really, really happy with this burpee process because at the end of the day, you really do get more bang for your buck. Yes, new construction overall. It's just safer. We have tons of great new construction providers, especially in Florida, whom we recommend, but this is an alternative for those people who don't have $100,000 sitting in the bank ready to invest in a new construction, single family, or a new construction duplex. The Berkey, I mean, really all you need is about 20, $25,000 to do it. And like I said, if you get lucky, you could get a decent portion of that back after the rehab.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:37:08) - Well, you bring up so many good points there in the race. For one thing, with real estate, you can intentionally improve the value. That's something that you cannot do if you own a stock or if you own cryptocurrency, or if you own gold, you can help control what your investment is worth. And a lot of that happens here in the rehab process. Well, the race would love to tell you more, including walking you through an example with numbers, but that's the best place for him to do it. That is on the live event next week because it is co-hosted by narration. You can join the live virtual event from the comfort of your own home. You can ask questions and have them answered in real time. It is all free and we'll also be sharing special off market Berkey inventory. In Memphis for two, three and four bedroom properties, so go ahead and attend on June 25th. Which again is next Tuesday. Be sure to register now at GR webinars.com. Just been great to walk through the Berkey.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:38:12) - Thanks so much for coming back on the show.

 

Naresh Vissa (00:38:14) - Thank you. It's been a pleasure.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:38:21) - Oh good info from Gree investment coach Naresh as always. Next week's live event. That could be a bigger deal than the Paris Olympics this summer and this year's presidential election combined. Oh yes. Well, at least it expects to be more profitable for you than those other events. It will also be more entertaining when you join as an attendee live next week. Certainly more entertaining and informative than Olympic handball and Olympic race walking, no doubt about that. I don't think I've offended any race walking fans because there are only perhaps five in the world. In any case, BR is a process by which, after you buy months later, you can expect to refinance at a higher valuation since the property has been rehabbed from your initial purchase, and then you get a big chunk of your own down payment back, meaning you have less invested in the deal. And that's why you get a higher cash on cash return. Because cash and cash return all that is, is your annual cash flow divided by your initial investment or your starting equity position.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:39:37) - The last R in BR is repeat. You can repeat sooner because you did get some of your invested cash back. And that's part of what makes the strategy so effective. Now is part of your refi. You might get a post appraisal rehab that's so high you essentially get all of your down payment money returned to you, at which point it would be an infinite return because you don't have anything invested in the deal. But you should not count on having all of it returned, just a lot of it or most of it. Next week's live event is where the BR real estate investing strategy gets introduced to a wider swath of America one last time. Attend live next Tuesday. The 25th. I really encourage you to check it out. Be sure to sign up for the virtual GRE live event now! It's pretty quick and easy to do at GR webinars.com. Until next week, I'm your host, Keith Weintraub. Don't quit your day dream.

 

Speaker 5 (00:40:41) - Nothing on this show should be considered specific, personal or professional advice.

 

Speaker 5 (00:40:45) - Please consult an appropriate tax, legal, real estate, financial or business professional for individualized advice. Opinions of guests are their own. Information is not guaranteed. All investment strategies have the potential for profit or loss. The host is operating on behalf of yet Rich education LLC exclusively.

 

Robert Syslo (00:41:09) - The preceding program was brought.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:41:10) - To you by your home for wealth building. Get Rich Education.com.




Direct download: GREepisode506_.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 4:00am EDT

Big capital gains tax bills are hitting more home sellers. Exemptions exist for up to $250K single, $500K married.

Bad housing affordability means a low home ownership rate, hence, more renters.

The homeownership rate has dropped from 66.0% to 65.6% in the last year.

I have a hole in the roof of a rental single-family home, with about $10K in damage. Learn how I handle it.

Two of the first three income properties that I bought performed poorly.

VP of Market Economics at Auction.com, Daren Blomquist joins me. We learn why foreclosure activity is 10% to 20% below pre-pandemic levels.

Learn about judicial and non-judicial foreclosure states.  

From homeowners surveyed, the top concern about falling into delinquency are rising insurance and property taxes.

Auction bidders are confident about the real estate market. They’re willing to pay more, which is 60% of ARV nationally.

You can bid on distressed properties with your phone via Auction.com.

Opportunity Zones are generally working.

Resources mentioned:

Nation’s Largest Online RE Auction Marketplace:

Auction.com

For access to properties or free help with a

GRE Investment Coach, start here:

GREmarketplace.com

Get mortgage loans for investment property:

RidgeLendingGroup.com or call 855-74-RIDGE 

or e-mail: info@RidgeLendingGroup.com

Invest with Freedom Family Investments. 

You get paid first: Text FAMILY to 66866

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Complete episode transcript:

 

Speaker Weinhold** ((00:00:00)) - - Welcome to GRE! I'm your host, Keith Weinhold, talking about a lot of housing market problems today. Capital gains taxes hitting more home sellers. Home affordability is still bad. The American homeownership rate is falling. I've got roof damage on one of my own properties. Then an update on American mortgage delinquencies and foreclosures. It's mostly bad real estate news today on Get Rich Education.

 

Speaker Syslo** ((00:00:29)) - - Since 2014, the powerful Get Rich education podcast has created more passive income for people than nearly any other show in the world. This show teaches you how to earn strong returns from passive real estate, investing in the best markets without losing your time being a flipper or landlord. Show host Keith Reinhold writes for both Forbes and Rich Dad Advisors, and delivers a new show every week. Since 2014, there's been millions of listeners downloads and 188 world nations. He has A-list show guests include top selling personal finance author Robert Kiyosaki. Get Rich education can be heard on every podcast platform. Plus it has its own dedicated Apple and Android listener. Phone apps build wealth on the go with the get Rich education podcast.

 

Speaker Syslo** ((00:01:06)) - - Sign up now for the Get Rich education podcast or visit GetRichEducation.com.

 

Speaker Coates** ((00:01:14)) - - You're listening to the show that has created more financial freedom than nearly any show in the world. This is get rich education.

 

Speaker Weinhold** ((00:01:30)) - - We're gonna go from Bavaria, Germany, to Batavia, New York, and across 188 nations worldwide. I'm Keith Weinhold, and you're listening to Get Rich education. There is a large online source of foreclosure and bank owned properties that you won't find on the MLS. In fact, they are the largest in the nation, and their VP of Market Economics will be here with us later today. Home price appreciation. That has been wonderful for the last several years. But one negative consequence is the fact that more home sellers now are getting hit with big capital gains tax bills. Now we'll discuss income property shortly, but when it comes to primary residences, you probably know that if you are single, you won't pay any capital gains tax on the first 250 K profit of your sale. That 250 K exemption. That is only half of what married couples enjoy.

 

Speaker Weinhold** ((00:02:29)) - - They don't have to pay tax on the first 500 K of profit. Yes, a $500,000 exemption on capital gains for married couples. So basically, single people in high priced markets like you often find on the coasts, they get hit the hardest. Married couples in lower priced markets more toward the heartland and in the South. Those married couples, they're more likely to get away without paying any tax on the profit from their home sale. All right, well, just what proportion of homes are we talking about here? Well, last year, 8% of sales had capital gains of over 500 K. All right, well that potentially makes them exposed to the tax hit. Compare that to a couple decades ago. That share was just over 1%. So it's gone from 1% to 8%. These are exorbitant capital gains tax events. And you know what this does. People trying to avoid that it keeps even more homes off the market. Now it's not as pronounced as the well-documented interest rate lock in effect okay. Call this the capital gains tax lock.

 

Speaker Weinhold** ((00:03:46)) - - In effect people avoid the tax by not selling. And it makes some older people age in place. That's part of what's going on here. Because if the homeowner keeps it until they die, then the heirs, they might be able to sell it tax free due to the tax laws and capital gains taxes. Like, what rate do you actually pay that can be as high as around 20% on you for selling your primary residence if the gain exceeds those thresholds? And yeah, those thresholds, they haven't moved with inflation in quite a long time. Now, understand that right now you are living in an era where many Americans, they can't afford to live in the home that they live in right now if they tried to repurchase it at today's prices. So again, it's not the mortgage rate lag in effect here. It's the purchase price paid lock in effect. Now look, yes, overall I am a real estate market optimist. You are too, when you understand how real estate pays you five ways. But as far as anyone saying something like, oh, there is never been a better time to buy, that doesn't make any sense.

 

Speaker Weinhold** ((00:05:02)) - - Now. At the same time, I don't see any evidence that waiting is going to do you any favors, but there have obviously been some better times to buy. In fact, do you know the best year in modern history that I can think of for buying real estate? Any idea it was the year 2013? Yeah, 2013. That's when prices were low because they still hadn't bounced much off of the GFC lows and mortgage rates. They actually were in the absurdly low threes back in 2013. Now starting in 2021 you know I have been on record on this show. I've been on record on television and on our own YouTube channel here and in Forbes and elsewhere. Since then, I've said that home prices, they're not poised to fall, they're going to stay stable or they're going to keep going up. I was perhaps one of the earlier people to point that 3 or 4 years ago that the low housing supply and the government safety nets that won't let people lose their homes, those things keep the markets buoyant.

 

Speaker Weinhold** ((00:06:16)) - - Now, today, I see more signs that prolonged bad affordability will slow down. Home price growth in that part is bad for investors, of course. Prolonged. Bad affordability. That means something good for income centric investors at the same time, sort of like David Stockman and I touched on last week here. Yes. Souring affordability. What that means is a falling homeownership rate that would make sense in the homeownership rate. That means that just what it sounds like, that is the proportion of American homes that are occupied by their owner in the past year. Yeah, the homeownership rate has fallen, but not too much yet because there are some lag effects and other factors to account for. Like, imagine if there are new zero money down loan programs that are made available. You can see how that would make homes more affordable, even if rates and prices and wages stayed the same. So there are X factors out there and lag effects out there. In the past year, the homeownership rate has fallen from 66% down to 65.6%.

 

Speaker Weinhold** ((00:07:33)) - - Not too much of a slide, just 4/10 of 1%. That is a Fred stat sourced through the Census Bureau. All right. So what's that really mean if you're looking for income. Well, what that means is that there are now hundreds of thousands of additional renters today than there were just one year ago. And the number of renters, those that aren't homeowners, that looks to increase in both absolute and relative terms. There's a lot of people expect the homeownership rate to continue to drop from here. Now, no investor conditions are absolutely ideal everywhere you look. In fact, of the first three investment properties that I personally bought in my life, only one of those three went really well. It was that first ever fourplex I bought because it appreciated from 295 K to 425 K in just three and a half years, and it provided some cash flow and even a place for me to live. But the second property I bought, which was also a fourplex, it hardly cash flow because I bought it at 90% loan to value, and I also bought it in 2007.

 

Speaker Weinhold** ((00:08:46)) - - Not great timing, so its value dropped. I was a pretty new real estate investor then, and when its value dropped, it didn't return to the 530 K value that I bought it for for about six years. And then I got wiser and I started buying across state lines, since that's where the best deals often are. Well, this was then my third investment property, a brick single family home that cost 153 K in the Dallas-Fort worth area. And the main reason I bought it is because it was cheap, which was a mistake. It was also in a growing area, but I couldn't keep it occupied, so I soon sold it for about the same price that I bought it for. All right. But even in those far less than ideal beginnings for me, two of my first three properties, they weren't disasters, but they weren't a great experience either. Yet I still got some leverage, a little cash flow. I got tenant made principal pay down all the while, tax benefits all the while, and that inflation profiting benefit.

 

Speaker Weinhold** ((00:09:52)) - - And I did then find myself better off overall. Despite that the appreciation and the cash flow weren't all that great. If you blend those first three properties together and today, perhaps a lot like you or what you want to do. I own properties in multiple markets, and I remotely made as the property managers in those markets. And you know, just yesterday I got an email from one of my property managers about roof damage to one of my properties. It's a rental single family home. It's going to be about $10,000 worth of repair work. Some bad news and the way I'm hailing it is a way that you might think of handling a real estate problem. I sure don't just send off a $10,000 check right away and chalk it up as a loss, and ask myself how many months it's going to take me to make that up. The first thing that you can do in this situation is check to see if you have a home warranty that covers it in full or in part. Whether you bought your property new or renovated, a warranty might apply.

 

Speaker Weinhold** ((00:10:58)) - - It actually does not in my case here. Well, if the warranty doesn't cover your issue, of course, check with your insurance provider and see what your deductible is there. Consider that when insurance premiums have risen sharply in a lot of markets, you need to get something back for that premium that you're paying in a lot of cases. All right. And if those things don't work, then don't just take the first quote that your property manager gives you that they got from the first contractor, which is. Ten K in my case. For a substantial work item, ask your property manager to obtain at least three quotes for you. That's reasonable. And then look at the most competitive of those three quotes. So to review here three ways to avoid paying. For example a full 10-K. In my case it's your warranty, it's your insurance. And if you feel like you must come out of pocket, then get three quotes in order to reduce your cost. And here's the thing you don't do these things yourself.

 

Speaker Weinhold** ((00:12:03)) - - What you do is you ask your manager to do these things and make it easy for you. Your manager should check with your insurance policy and they should check on your warranty. And then you can back it up and take a look at it. If you don't like the answer, they should obtain the roofing contractor quotes for you to. You are paying your manager for this stuff, maybe 8 or 10% in a management fee, and that should not be for nothing. Have them do this stuff that's their job and ask them to do it. Because if you don't just watch, they'd be happy to have you do it for them. Don't. You don't have to. So we're talking about mitigating your out-of-pocket cost in your time expended when you have a real estate issue, like a hole in a roof of one of my single family rentals. Now sometimes you're going to get caught in some snafu. But again, our strategy here is that you're usually not even holding any one rental property for more than 7 to 10 years, because by that time, it's accumulated sufficient equity so that you can make a tax deferred exchange up to another property, keep leveraging that equity, because the rate of return from equity is always zero.

 

Speaker Weinhold** ((00:13:16)) - - Now, that process, that 7 or 10 years, that might be on the slower end. Now though, since the property that you consider relinquishing is going to have a lower mortgage rate than your replacement property, it will. And one other thing to keep in mind here it's about providing America with that clean, safe, affordable, functional housing. What that means is that while roof quotes are being obtained here if needed, and it takes a few works until those roof repairs can begin, what you can do is have a cheap temporary repair done until the permanent roof fix starts. That's pretty common with roofing repairs, and that way not only is any interim damage avoided, but the tenant is not being negatively impacted here either. No slumlords around here. As we're discussing real estate problems today, we're about to delve into what happens when homeowners in real estate investors, when they can't make the mortgage payments on their property, and is that proportion of people going up or is that going down in this low affordability market? We'll also get some takeaways by looking at the bidder activity on foreclosure properties.

 

Speaker Weinhold** ((00:14:33)) - - That can tell us quite a bit about the market and about buyer expectations for the future of the market. And I'll also tell you how you too, if you're interested, you can find opportunities and get a deep discount on a foreclosed upon property. That's all. Next with a great guest, I'm Keith Reinhold. You're listening to get Rich education. Your bank is getting rich off of you. The national average bank account pays less than 1% on your savings. If your money isn't making 4%, you're losing your hard earned cash to inflation. Let the liquidity fund help you put your money to work with minimum risk. Your cash generates up to an 8% return with compound interest year in and year out. Instead of earning less than 1% sitting in your bank account, the minimum investment is just $25. You keep getting paid until you decide you want your money back there. Decade plus track record proves they've always paid their investors 100% in full and on time. And I would know, because I'm an investor, to earn 8%.

 

Speaker Weinhold** ((00:15:41)) - - Hundreds of others are. Text. Family 266866. Learn more about Freedom Family Investments Liquidity Fund on your journey to financial freedom through passive income. Text family to 66866. Role under the specific expert with income property you need Ridge Lending Group and MLS 42056 in grey history, from beginners to veterans. They provided our listeners with more mortgages than anyone. It's where I get my own loans for single family rentals up to four Plex's. Start your pre-qualification and chat with President Charlie Ridge personally. They'll even customize a plan tailored to you for growing your portfolio. Start at Ridge Lending group.com Ridge lending group.com. This is Rich dad advisor Tom Wheelwright. Listen to get Rich education with Keith Reinhold and don't quit your daydream. This week's guest is the VP of Market Economics at auction. Com they are the largest online source of foreclosure and bank owned properties that you won't find on the MLS. You can bid on properties from anywhere with your mobile device. We'll learn more about that later. First, we're covering a general real estate market update today, and then we're mostly going to discuss what's happening in the foreclosure market, including just what a foreclosure market even is.

 

Speaker Weinhold** ((00:17:25)) - - Hey, it's been over a year since we've had you here. So a big gray welcome back to Darren Lundquist. Thank you so much. It's great to be back and.

 

Speaker Blomquist** ((00:17:34)) - - Glad to see you, Keith.

 

Speaker Weinhold** ((00:17:35)) - - For listeners in the audio only Blomquist is spelled with just one oh, despite being pronounced. Blomquist and Daren, as we talk about the state of these markets today, it also helps to mix in lessons for the follower and listener that's watching or consuming this. In ten years. And before we discuss foreclosures. Now, Darren, when I look at the residential real estate market today, there are a few ways that it appears rather normalized actually. For example, all price appreciation rates are normal rent growth levels. They're pretty close to historic norms. Interest rates are even near historic norms, which is a surprise to laypersons. But that's three huge measures that are actually normal, and no one else anywhere talks about that. But there are some aberrations in today's market, the most chronic and saddening of which is the lack of housing supply.

 

Speaker Weinhold** ((00:18:28)) - - So with that backdrop, what are your thoughts on today's overall American housing market?

 

Speaker Blomquist** ((00:18:34)) - - It's really interesting. We have these normal metrics that we look at when we look at how home price appreciation. Now home sales I would say are abnormally low. Right. But home price appreciation is doing well. Some of the other metrics that we look at. But it's coming off of this abnormal what I would say an abnormal period over the last three years or so, mostly during the pandemic when the housing market went a little bit crazy and you saw home prices rise abnormally fast. I would argue too fast for such a short period of time. And so you'd almost expect after a period like that to see a correction in home prices. And we saw a slight correction in late 2022, early 23. Right. But now home prices are, as you mentioned, kind of back to normal actually maybe a little bit on the high side of normal, 5 to 7% home price appreciation that we're seeing annually. And so there is this sense that things look normal.

 

Speaker Wheelwright** ((00:19:32)) - - But below the surface there are, I believe I would argue and you may not agree with this, some underlying problems that I think could come back to bite us if, you know, depending on how things go over the next few years. But certainly the underlying fundamental biggest storyline, that's not necessarily maybe as accessible to a lot of people is this housing supply that you mentioned, Keith. And over the last the decade that ended in 2020, we saw, I would guess, based on my analysis, about 4 to 5 million housing units that were not built, that in a sense should have been built. But we were short 4 to 5 million housing units relative to the number of households that were being formed during that same time period. And so that is set us up for this market that we're in now in the 2020s, where we're seeing, despite the fact that home prices are going up and are out of whack with fundamental price to income ratios. In other words, affordability is a problem. Despite that fact, home prices continue to go up because you have this underlying lack of supply and so you have enough demand to fuel rising home prices, given the lack of supply, if that makes sense.

 

Speaker Weinhold** ((00:20:48)) - - Yes. You mentioned the paltry volume of sales, which is really one consequence of this constrained supply. And there are so many ways to measure it. You threw some numbers out there just using Fred's active listing count. They have one and a half to 2 million homes normally available. Inventory bottomed out near a jaw dropping, just fantastically paltry 350,000 units in 2022. And then the latest figure is about 730 K. So really doubling off the bottom, but yet still far below what is needed there in in 2021 and 2022, I started informing our audience that the housing crash of this generation, it's already occurred. It was a supply crash, which hedges against a price crash even amidst a tripling of interest rates. I guess there. And from your vantage point, when will this low housing supply abate?

 

Speaker Wheelwright** ((00:21:46)) - - But I think on the multifamily side, you're seeing signs that we've, in a sense, caught up with housing supply. You're seeing the multifamily sectors start in terms of the builders start to pull back. I think because of that.

 

Speaker Wheelwright** ((00:21:58)) - - And one piece of evidence of that is the slowdown in rent appreciation. But then on the Single-Family side, we're still seeing pretty robust increases in housing starts and builders starting housing units. And I was just looking at the latest numbers for April up 18% year over year. And we're at over a million housing starts in April on an annualized basis. You know, it's hard to predict what household formation will be doing over the next decade, but I believe that million number is enough to supply the new households that are being formed and are projected to be formed over the next few years. And so we're kind of at a place where at least we're treading water in terms of housing supply. And I do think there are some demographic trends that could by the year 2030, which may seem like a long ways off still, but by that time we would see this kind of reverse a little bit. And the demographic trends I'm talking about are slower population growth, the birth rates. There's a big article in the Wall Street Journal.

 

Speaker Wheelwright** ((00:22:58)) - - If you write, birth rates are surprisingly not really coming back. They dropped during the pandemic have not really come back. And in many areas, including the US or below replacement level in terms of replacing the population at 2.1. Yes. So not to get too deep into the demographics, I'm not a demographer, but I think that combined with these increases in housing starts that we're seeing, we will see that supply in the next five years. Maybe when I'm on next, I'm with you to see that it is a slow moving train. I think we're headed in a good direction in terms of that, that housing supply. And those are already, I would argue, some early signs at 2024 at least. It's still a low supply environment, but it's at least somewhat better, incrementally better than 2023 was in terms of inventory. And we're seeing some more inventory. Come on. One tip I would just say that's I think a long term thing to look for, no matter what environment you're in, is if you look at the inventory, inventory is a great and a barometer of market health.

 

Speaker Wheelwright** ((00:24:00)) - - And if you look at inventory numbers by market, which we do, you do see some markets all of a sudden inventory is starting to spike. And that to me is a signal that those markets could be softening in terms of prices and even in terms of sales. So you see some markets in Florida popping up like that. But whether or not we're talking about now or anytime, it's a great metric to look at. For anybody investing in real estate, especially at a market level, is that inventory of homes. You can look at month supply of inventory for sale. Six months supply is a great milestone. If there's six months supply, that's a balanced market. If it's below six months supply, it's a seller's market. And if it's above six months supply, it's a buyer's market. So just a general kind of rule of thumb to look for there.

 

Speaker Weinhold** ((00:24:46)) - - Sure. We've seen months of supply three months or less in an awful lot of places. However, you alluded to coming potential problems for the housing market earlier.

 

Speaker Weinhold** ((00:24:55)) - - Can you tell us more about that? Have you already done that with talking about a potential softening with some inventory coming on faster in some markets?

 

Speaker Wheelwright** ((00:25:04)) - - I think you're a thesis about this. The housing crash has already happened and it was a supply crash is very interesting. When I look at price to income ratios over time, you know, home prices versus incomes, we've diverged from that long term mean of that price to income ratio right. In the last couple of years. We saw that during the the bubble of 2004 five six. But it's even more dramatic in the last couple of years where we saw at the peak of this, the actual home prices. We. Nationwide, we're about 30% above what we would expect the price to be based on incomes and that historic price to income ratio. And so I do expect a reversion to the mean at some point. Now, whether that could occur as a pretty sharp correction, although I can't point to a specific trigger that would cause that correction necessarily may could occur more of a stagnation over time, where home prices kind of flatten out and increase less than the median long term average.

 

Speaker Wheelwright** ((00:26:07)) - - I do believe that we will see a reversion to that mean eventually, especially as we see more supply coming onto the market. I think it's actually healthy for the housing market, but it could be experienced by many people as weakness in the housing market, because you could see home prices decline a little bit, especially in certain markets.

 

Speaker Weinhold** ((00:26:25)) - - From your vantage point. Darren, you are an expert there in helping people find deals because you really keep a pulse on what's happening in the foreclosure market. Maybe some of our audience doesn't completely understand what the foreclosure market means. Now, Darren, I think of delinquency is that condition means that mortgage borrowers have been making some late payments. Tell us about how delinquency differs from foreclosure. And that will help if you go ahead and define just what the foreclosure market is.

 

Speaker Wheelwright** ((00:26:57)) - - Starting with the foreclosure market. I mean, when you can call it the distressed market or the foreclosure market. And that's really where auctions. Com operates. And is this foreclosure market, it's loans that the borrower cannot continue to make payments for a variety of reasons.

 

Speaker Wheelwright** ((00:27:12)) - - When you have a home that's financed and the borrower cannot continue to make payments, the recourse for the lender is foreclosure to take back that property by taking back that property and then selling it, recouping or trying to recoup as much of the losses on that property that they can in terms of the loan that was given on that property. Okay.

 

Speaker Weinhold** ((00:27:34)) - - So let's talk about delinquencies here. We're looking at certain levels of severity being 30 days late on your payments, being 60 days late and being 90 days late. And interestingly, we see a big spike in FHA loan types that have had more delinquencies than conventional loan types.

 

Speaker Blomquist** ((00:27:50)) - - That's right. Yeah. So delinquency is kind of the top of the funnel if you think of the distressed market or for leisure market as a funnel, the top of that funnel is someone can't make their payment one month. They miss their payment, mortgage payment one month. That's what this 30 or 30 day delinquency. And when you look at the chart that we're looking at, you do see those 30 day delinquencies rising over the especially on FHA loans, which are, I would argue, the most kind of risky loans in our current marketplace.

 

Speaker Blomquist** ((00:28:19)) - - Yeah, the last ten years, over the last decade. And we see those even from 2021, rising steadily up back to really 2019 highs on the 30 day delinquencies, you also see a slight gradual increase in conventional loans, which are loans backed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac as well as VA loans. But those are the 30 day delinquencies. They're are not back to pre-pandemic levels even on that front. So that's the 30 day. Usually if someone misses a monthly payment, it's not super serious at that point. What really gets more into our marketplace is when we see a 90 day delinquency, or what's known as a seriously delinquent loan alone, that is past due by 90 plus days. And we have that chart here. What stands out to me on this chart is you actually see those 90 day delinquencies continuing for the most part to trend lower, even though the 30 day delinquencies are going up, 90 days are coming down, and there's a lot of reasons for that. But at the end of the day, that means people maybe are getting into trouble, but they're able to get out of trouble before they lose the home to foreclosure in many instances.

 

Speaker Weinhold** ((00:29:29)) - - All right. So in summary, 30 and 60 day delinquencies have risen over the past two years. But over the past two years, serious delinquencies, 90 day delinquencies therefore, are lower over the past two years.

 

Speaker Blomquist** ((00:29:43)) - - That's right. And then if we look at foreclosure starts, which is kind of the next step. So you missed three months worth of payments. That's when the bank starts to think about starting the official foreclosure process. And if you look at foreclosure starts, we are seeing those rise as well. And part of the reason that you see these rising, even though seriously delinquent loans are falling, is because there was a bit of a backlog from the pandemic still. Yeah, loans that were delinquent when the pandemic started that were delayed from going to foreclosure, that are now coming back. So we see this sharp drop off in 2020 when there was a foreclosure moratorium. Those numbers have reverted back, have bounced back. But there's we're still seeing about 60 to 70,000 foreclosure starts, a quarter nationwide just to put some numbers on this.

 

Speaker Blomquist** ((00:30:31)) - - But back in the first quarter of 2020, before the foreclosure moratoriums, we were at 81,000. So we're still at about 80% of the pre-pandemic levels. But foreclosure starts have come back. We're just getting back to what I would consider kind of normal levels of foreclosure, and especially if you look at in the context of what we saw during in 2009, 2010, we were seeing over 500,000 foreclosure starts a quarter back then. Now we're seeing 68,000. So we're paling in comparison to those numbers.

 

Speaker Weinhold** ((00:31:04)) - - As you, the investor, is thinking this through, we're talking about how many opportunities there will be for you here, basically to scoop up a distressed deal, a fixed and flip property. If you're looking to fix and flip one just in the general context, that's what we're talking about here.

 

Speaker Blomquist** ((00:31:21)) - - Opportunities really foreclosure starts are for. Opportunities. If we look at where the opportunities are emerging in terms of those foreclosure starts, we do see a lot of increases in looking at March of 2024. Year over year, a lot of increases in Florida, and foreclosure starts and also Texas in California.

 

Speaker Blomquist** ((00:31:42)) - - So it's interesting. I mean, these are markets that are doing pretty well, pretty healthy. But we are seeing some of those foreclosure starts come back in pretty big percentage wise in those areas. If we look at auction com data, specifically the state level, in the interest of time. But just to look through the lens of looking for opportunities. Auction com resides a step after the foreclosure start. Then eventually it goes to a foreclosure auction where the property either sells to an investor or it goes back to the bank is what's known as an REO. And where we're seeing on our platform the biggest kind of return to normal levels of foreclosure auction volume, where there's that property actually is sold, is mostly in the Rust Belt, Upper Midwest. That's where we're seeing volumes return to normal. And a place like Florida, we're only seeing foreclosure volumes are over 70% below normal, and Texas were 55% below normal. And when I say normal, I'm saying I'm comparing that to pre-pandemic levels. And then in California, we're at about 45% below those pre-pandemic levels.

 

Speaker Blomquist** ((00:32:54)) - - So some of the big volume states, we're still waiting for the foreclosure volume to return. But if you look like at states like Indiana, Iowa, Minnesota, places like that, Oklahoma, we are seeing that foreclosure auction volumes have returned to those pre-pandemic levels. So there are more opportunities in those areas, at least relative to their population and their their size of in terms of housing units.

 

Speaker Weinhold** ((00:33:20)) - - So in general, in a lot of these upper Midwestern states, in northern Great Plains states, we see a greater foreclosure volume than we did pre-pandemic, because those levels are at over 100%, 100 being the pre-pandemic level. There is one aberration on your map, for one thing, Darren, and that is in Connecticut, where we have 306% of the foreclosure volume that we did pre-pandemic. That's over three x what's going on in Connecticut?

 

Speaker Wheelwright** ((00:33:50)) - - I'm glad you pointed that out. I mean, that is part of the the issue with Connecticut is you do have relatively low foreclosure volumes there. So the 306% is coming off even pre-pandemic, some pretty low volumes of foreclosure.

 

Speaker Wheelwright** ((00:34:03)) - - We are seeing and I can't point to exactly what's happening there in terms of the economy, any other extra weakness in the economy or in the housing market there? But we are seeing definitely that's the top state in terms of where foreclosure volume is back way above, in fact, pre-pandemic levels. That was one of the areas, at least parts of Connecticut where the work from home trend maybe got a little bit out of control, and people were buying homes and willing to pay very high prices for homes that were who worked in New York City. And now we're thinking, well, I can work from Connecticut. In the country. There was probably more of a pandemic housing boom in Connecticut than some other areas of the country, and that may be part of the story that's going on there.

 

Speaker Weinhold** ((00:34:54)) - - We're talking about the most densely populated part of the United States here, the tri state area, which is New York, Connecticut and New Jersey. And what's unusual is that one of those three states, new Jersey, is the antithesis of what's happening in Connecticut.

 

Speaker Weinhold** ((00:35:09)) - - Connecticut has about three x the foreclosure volume than they did before the pandemic, and new Jersey is just 25%. They only have one quarter the foreclosure volume that they did before the pandemic. Are there any other tri state dynamics going on there with foreclosures there?

 

Speaker Wheelwright** ((00:35:25)) - - That's a great observation. And one thing that becomes very important with foreclosures is the foreclosure process is governed by state law. It's not a federal national law that governs how the foreclosures work. And so you do see a lot of variation in the states based on how that foreclosure process works. And then also even how the the legislatures in those states have stepped in in some cases. And that's the case in new Jersey and created new laws even in the last couple of years to, for lack of a better word, stymie the foreclosure process and may put extra barriers in getting to foreclosure. And so, number one, new Jersey is what's called a judicial foreclosure state, where the foreclosure process is inherently longer than many states, including Connecticut. And then on top of that, the new Jersey legislature has enacted at least one law that took effect in January that even creates more barriers to foreclosure.

 

Speaker Wheelwright** ((00:36:22)) - - And we probably don't have time to get into the details of that law. But that's really, I think, what's it's less about that new Jersey is a much more healthy housing market than Connecticut. As to what you see there is the effects of the state governed foreclosure process with those numbers.

 

Speaker Weinhold** ((00:36:40)) - - So just some great context for the listener and viewer here. The state jurisdiction in the judicial process has an awful lot to do with foreclosure volume. That's not necessarily indicative of the condition of its housing market.

 

Speaker Wheelwright** ((00:36:55)) - - That's right. And it does vary quite a bit. When we look at going forward at risk. We actually asked, so our clients are the banks, the mortgage servicers, the lenders who are foreclosing on these properties. And we ask them what they think is the highest risk of increasing foreclosures in the future. And the the top of their list was rising insurance and property taxes.

 

Speaker Weinhold** ((00:37:22)) - - That's super interesting.

 

Speaker Wheelwright** ((00:37:23)) - - Yeah, and that's been a hot topic recently. I would put that at the top of my list of risks.

 

Speaker Wheelwright** ((00:37:29)) - - Going back to your question about why could the housing market experience weakness in the somewhat near future? I think this is the top of my list of as a catalyst that could potentially trigger weakness in the housing market, specifically home prices. Because of these variable costs of homeownership. You know, your mortgage is a fixed cost. You know what it's going to be every month, but your insurance and property taxes are variable costs. And there are in some states, those have skyrocketed. For some homeowners. This insurers are pulling out of states.

 

Speaker Weinhold** ((00:38:02)) - - This is all such a great finding. Again, Darren's firm asked the survey question how much would you assign each of the following in terms of risk for higher delinquencies between now and the end of this year? And the number one answer is rising insurance and property taxes to Darren's point. That's because these are variable costs that everyone is subjected to. And we need to be mindful that more than 4 in 10 American homeowners are free and clear of their mortgage, so they don't have any payment.

 

Speaker Weinhold** ((00:38:27)) - - So on a percentage basis, when you look at homeowners expenses, when they have rising insurance and property tax problems, you can see how this can increase foreclosures.

 

Speaker Wheelwright** ((00:38:38)) - - That's right. That's a great point. A couple other risks that ranked fairly high with our clients. We're rising consumer debt delinquencies so that we do see things like credit card debt and auto loan debt, specifically those two delinquencies on those types of more or loans, not mortgages, are rising quite quickly over the last few quarters. And so that's an area of risk that we're seeing. And then they put rising unemployment is third. But you know right. We're not seeing unemployment rise right now. And unemployment is very low. They put that a little bit lower on the list. Those two things to look out for are those rising insurance and property taxes. If we continue to see that be a problem, that could be a trigger that causes some fallout in the housing market, as well as if we continue to see those rising delinquencies on credit card and auto loan debt that could ripple out as well to the housing market.

 

Speaker Weinhold** ((00:39:35)) - - It's really interesting. Higher property taxes are often a result of a homeowner's property having gone up in value. But if you own a paid off home and you're just going to continue to live there for the rest of your life, that rising property value that really doesn't help you so much, it actually might hurt you in a way, because you will have a commensurate increase in your property. Taxes, making it harder for you to live.

 

Speaker Wheelwright** ((00:39:57)) - - Yeah, that's right. It's a double edged sword there with the rising values. And usually it's, you know, property taxes is not an unbearable cost for most people. But when you're on the margins and you're just barely able to make your mortgage payment each month, and if you're in that situation, a fairly small rise in property taxes can make a big difference in whether you're able to continue to make those payments.

 

Speaker Weinhold** ((00:40:21)) - - Yes. And then the rising insurance premiums, they've gone to X to three X on some homeowners in just a few years. It won't go up that much on a property taxes.

 

Speaker Wheelwright** ((00:40:30)) - - The insurance is there's been more of the problem recently, but property taxes are kind of layered on top of that. Moving on. I just wanted to land, I think really on getting back to that question of opportunity for investors out there and auction com buyers are typically fix and flip or you know, fix and rent investors. And so what they're doing is they're looking to buy these properties. And it usually takes maybe six months, 90 days to six months to renovate these properties and turn them around and sell them. And so one of the things we look at very carefully is, are the bidding behavior on our platform as an indicator of what's coming in the retail market, because our buyers are they're pretty good usually at anticipating what's going to be happening in their market over the next 3 to 6 months. Our buyers did pull back in their bidding behavior, they got more conservative and were willing to pay less. Back in 2022, when mortgage rates spiked. But it appears now that our buyers have gotten comfortable with this kind of higher for longer concept of interest rates.

 

Speaker Wheelwright** ((00:41:36)) - - Yeah, and our bidding behavior on our platform is mostly trending higher, meaning that our buyers are pretty confident that the housing market, despite, you know, I might have sounded a little doom and gloom, but our buyers are pretty confident that in their local market, they will continue to be able to buy these distressed homes at a discount. The metric we look at is what they're paying at auction, relative to the after repair value of the home, the estimated after repair value, and as of March of this year, that was at 59.8%. So they're buying at 60% of after repair value at 40. You could turn that around and call that a 40% discount. That number is, believe it or not, been trending up over the last few months. So they're willing to pay more, which indicates confidence in the housing market going forward. Historically, that's our bidders have been a good harbinger or indicator of what's to come in the retail market when they're more confident the retail market typically does well and vice versa.

 

Speaker Wheelwright** ((00:42:39)) - - You know, if we look at that by market, it's really interesting to see where our bidders are most confident about home prices going up in different markets. And we see a lot of confidence actually, the places where we see it's probably coincidental, but some of the places where we see higher foreclosure volume, as we talked about earlier, some of the upper Midwest Rust Belt areas are where we're seeing our buyers willing to pay more than they did a year ago relative to after repair value. So that's where they have a lot of confidence, actually, even out in California and most parts of Florida, they're still pretty confident. And Texas, there are some areas where our buyers are pulling back and and are paying less relative to after repair value. And there's kind of a cluster of markets in on the Gulf Coast, right? You know, in Mississippi, Alabama. And I don't know if that relates to insurance costs. I haven't made that connection solidly. That's an area where there has been rising insurance costs.

 

Speaker Wheelwright** ((00:43:39)) - - It varies quite a bit. There are some other markets mixed in across the country. Even though most of Florida, our buyers are pretty confident there is one area where they're they've become cautious, which is Cape Coral, Florida. They've pulled back in terms of what they're willing to bid.

 

Speaker Weinhold** ((00:43:55)) - - Buyers for foreclosure properties still look overall quite confident in Florida. But yeah, like you touched on Darren, it's the lack of confidence to pay more for foreclosure properties in and around southern Louisiana. I know there's been some population loss there. And yes, like you touched on, they are more sensitive to insurance premium rises in Louisiana too.

 

Speaker Wheelwright** ((00:44:17)) - - That's right. So the takeaway is there's still the beauty of buying at that auction and distressed properties you are buying at a discount below after repair value. There's still a lot of risk involved because you may not know all that that's needed to renovate these properties, but you do have that. Rather than just counting on the housing market. Home price appreciation to increase to drive your profits, you have this component of added value.

 

Speaker Wheelwright** ((00:44:45)) - - So you're buying the property at a discount. And even at the housing, home prices don't go up in the next six months. By adding value to that property, you can still turn a profit because you're selling it for more than you bought it for. We have two types of auction on auction. Com there's the foreclosure auction, which we've talked a lot about, which comes at the end of the foreclosure process. And that's typically on the local courthouse steps. Although auction com in many counties allows you to bid remotely on your phone, we're we're pretty excited about that technology that we've introduced in the last couple of years. And then the second type of auction is if it doesn't sell at the courthouse steps foreclosure auction, it goes back to the bank as an REO. And we do the Ro auctions, which are mostly all online, and you can bid from anywhere. And it's pretty consistent between those two types of auctions. On average, at least over time, buyers are typically paying about 60% of after repair value, so about a 40% discount between after repair value.

 

Speaker Wheelwright** ((00:45:46)) - - Now, a lot of these homes need are in need of a lot of repair. But you have that type of discount available. And even though foreclosure volume has not come back to pre-pandemic levels, we're still seeing a consistent flow of that happening. There are certainly many markets, especially if you're willing to go off the beaten path a little bit in terms of markets where you can find inventory and also good discounts on these properties, especially if you're going to markets where maybe other investors aren't as aware of or aren't as interested in.

 

Speaker Weinhold** ((00:46:18)) - - Therein. I wonder about local flavor. For those that bid through your platform on these distressed, foreclosed properties. Here we have a lot of investors that buy properties pretty passively where the property is already fixed up for you, maybe already held under management. And a lot of those investors, they go ahead and buy across state lines, because the best teals tend to be in the Midwest and Southeast and a few other pockets in places. So there are an awful lot of out of state investors.

 

Speaker Weinhold** ((00:46:49)) - - On the passive side, what do you see for a breakdown of local investors in state investors and out-of-state investors through your platform for these distressed properties? I imagine it might be somewhat more localized than what I just described.

 

Speaker Wheelwright** ((00:47:01)) - - We do have some investors who are buying out of state, but actually the majority are buying in their backyard. Again, because these properties require their high touch, they require a lot of renovation. And so it's good to be local. It's definitely possible, especially with the REO properties where you can buy online. There is some more flexibility there if you have a crew, if you have boots on the ground in the market where you're buying, where you can do that, actually, the average distance between our buyers and the properties they buy is about 20 miles. I should say that's a median distance. So they're very local. There's definitely some exceptions to that you can buy across the country. But it is harder with these properties. These folks are very local. They know the markets they're operating in, and they know they have the resources in those markets to do the renovations.

 

Speaker Wheelwright** ((00:47:53)) - - Our buyers are probably a great resource for your students, Keith, to be able to tap into these types of local investors who have a supply of homes that they're creating, and sometimes they're selling back to owner occupants, you know, they're putting those properties on the market as renovated properties, and those might be good turnkey rental opportunities as well.

 

Speaker Weinhold** ((00:48:17)) - - You know, that makes a lot of sense. And how your platform can help people not just find properties, but maybe network and find some like minded people that have tread where you're trying to go. Well, Darren, is there any last thing that you would like to tell us along with your online platform? Is there also perhaps an auction mobile app?

 

Speaker Wheelwright** ((00:48:37)) - - Absolutely. We have an auction. Com app, and that's a great way to just either on on the website or on the app. You can go on and start searching. There's no subscription fee or anything like that to start looking and seeing where the opportunities are in the markets that you're interested in. You go to auction.com/in the news.

 

Speaker Wheelwright** ((00:48:57)) - - I actually end up talking to quite a few buyers of our buyers, and we've done some videos where we've gone and visited some of these buyers on location to see what they're doing, how they are operating on a human level. It's very interesting because these buyers are actually doing a lot of good in their communities. Many times by willing to take these down and out properties and down and out neighborhoods and renovate them, but also just on the level of understanding how this all works. That's a great resource. So that's auction.com/in the news and look for those videos featuring some of our buyers. I think that would be a great resource.

 

Speaker Weinhold** ((00:49:33)) - - Well this has been great information to get an update on what's happening in the foreclosure market and where some of the local areas of opportunity might be as well, especially compared to pre-pandemic conditions. It's been valuable and it's been a pleasure having you here on the show. Thank you so much, Keith. Yeah. Good knowledge for foreclosure expert Darren Bloomquist today. It's when borrowers miss three months of mortgage payments.

 

Speaker Weinhold** ((00:50:05)) - - That's that mark, where banks often begin foreclosure proceedings. Another thing that you learn is compared to pre-pandemic levels, national foreclosure levels are 10 to 20% lower today than they were then. And see with those that have a late mortgage payment or two, oftentimes that's not going all the way to foreclosure. They're getting caught up on their payments before it goes to foreclosure. And what's really going on here with that dynamic is that, see, today's homeowners, they are more motivated to stay caught up on their payments if they fall behind. And that's because they usually have a substantial positive equity position to protect. And the other factor is that if you lose your home today and you're locked in at a low pre 2022 mortgage rate, it's often going to cost you more per month to go out and rent somewhere else. So it's cheaper on a monthly basis to live in the home that you own. One piece that you might have learned is that high foreclosure activity in a state or city that is not necessarily indicative of that area's economic fortunes.

 

Speaker Weinhold** ((00:51:10)) - - Instead, it might be tied to its judicial foreclosure process. Nationally, buyers are paying about 60% of after repair value for a foreclosure property. I just talked to Darren some more outside of today's interview, he discussed that foreclosure properties are often in opportunity zones, and if you don't know what they are, are designated distressed areas. That's where there are benefits given to you. If you invest specifically in that zone, you might remember that Opportunity Zones were part of Trump's 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act. They have those zones in all 50 states. And Darren said that overall Opportunity zones are working next week here on the show. Properties are vanishing. Yeah, it is a real tweak to your investor mindset. Disappearing properties. Tune in next week as I cover. Properties are vanishing here on the show. If you haven't yet on your favorite pod catching app, be sure to subscribe or follow the show on your favorite app. Until next week, I'm your host, Keith Windle. Don't quit your daydream.

 

Speaker Blomquist** ((00:52:23)) - - Nothing on this show should be considered specific, personal or professional advice.

 

Speaker Voice** ((00:52:27)) - - Please consult an appropriate tax, legal, real estate, financial or business professional for individualized advice. Opinions of guests are their own. Information is not guaranteed. All investment strategies have the potential for profit or loss. The host is operating on behalf of yet Rich education LLC exclusively.

 

Speaker Weinhold** ((00:52:51)) - - The preceding program was brought to you by your home for wealth building. Get rich education.com.

Direct download: GREepisode505_b.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 4:00am EDT

We’re joined by President Ronald Reagan’s Budget Director, David Stockman. He tells us what real estate investors and everyday people need to know.

Stockman served as Reagan’s Director of Office, Management and Budget from 1981 to 1985.

He tells us to expect higher inflation and interest rates for longer, maybe even the rest of the decade. Don’t expect rate cuts for a long time.

The US is moving toward an unsustainable debt situation, with $100T in public debt expected within twenty-five years. We have embedded deficits.

Learn why the recession has been postponed. David also reveals what will inevitably pull the trigger to potentially start the recession. Hint: Household budgets.

Pandemic stimulus programs gave citizens $3T. Half of it has now been spent.

He was also one of the founding partners of Blackstone.

David Stockman tells a story about President Reagan’s personal touch with him.

You can subscribe to David Stockman’s Contra Corner for free here.

Resources mentioned:

David Stockman’s Contra Corner

For access to properties or free help with a

GRE Investment Coach, start here:

GREmarketplace.com

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RidgeLendingGroup.com or call 855-74-RIDGE 

or e-mail: info@RidgeLendingGroup.com

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Complete episode transcript:

 

Keith Weinhold (00:00:01) - Welcome to our Ivory Coast, Keith Whitehill. There are some dire warning signs for the future of our economy. We're joined by none other than the father of Reaganomics. To break it down with us. Today is late. President Ronald Reagan's budget director joins us. When is this perpetually postponed recession coming? Why? Inflation and high interest rates could carry on for the rest of the decade. And what it all means to your finances and real estate today on get Rich education.

 

Robert Syslo (00:00:34) - Since 2014, the powerful get Rich education podcast has created more passive income for people than nearly any other show in the world. This show teaches you how to earn strong returns from past real estate, investing in the best markets without losing your time being a flipper or landlord. Show host Keith Wine, who writes for both Forbes and Rich Dad Advisors and delivers a new show every week. Since 2014, there's been millions of listeners downloads and 188 world nations. He has A-list show guests include top selling personal finance author Robert Kiyosaki. Get Rich education can be heard on every podcast platform, plus it has its own dedicated Apple and Android listener.

 

Robert Syslo (00:01:08) - Phone apps build wealth on the go with the get Rich education podcast. Sign up now for the get Rich education podcast or visit get Rich education.com.

 

Corey Coates (00:01:19) - You're listening to the show that has created more financial freedom than nearly any show in the world. This is get rich education.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:01:35) - We're going to drive from Glen Burnie, Maryland, to Glen County, California and across 188 nations worldwide. I'm Keith Reinhold, and you're listening to get Rich education. We're going bigger picture this week before we talk to President Reagan's money guy in the white House. Understand that today's guest was also one of the founding partners of Blackstone, and they are in the real estate business. You're going to get a lot of deep, uniquely qualified insights today. And I'll tell you what's going on around here. Lately, things have been feeling awfully presidential between last week's program and now this week's program. Hey. Stars and stripes forever. Semper fi. Rah! Now, as the greatest detonation in the history of the world, how in the heck are we, as the United States, going to keep financing our debt now, you can think of a treasury, also known as a bond, as an IOU, as we take on debt to fund our government spending programs.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:02:42) - Really, what we do is issue then these IOUs to the rest of the world and then down the road. We need to pay back these IOU holders, treasuries, holders, whatever we've borrowed with interest on top of that. That's a really simple way to describe how it works. Think of a Treasury as an IOU. Well, we have $9 trillion in treasuries that need to be rolled over at higher interest rates just this year alone. Okay. Well, how does the market look for that sort of thing? Well, a lot like before you decide to sell a piece of real estate, you would want to know how that buyer's market looks. How is the buyer's market for us selling more treasuries, which is basically us issuing more IOUs? How is that world interest level in our treasuries? Well, this is a time when the world is selling treasuries. We're trying to get rid of them. Well, why would they buy more when we keep printing like crazy, debasing the dollars that they will eventually get their treasuries repaid in down the road? Case in point, China is down to just over 700 billion of treasuries that they're holding.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:04:01) - Well, they were 3 trillion not too long ago, more than four times that Russia and Iran sold all of their treasuries. Other countries are shedding them too, like Japan. It gets even worse than that because the number one holder of our own debt is our own fed. And then it gets even worse than that. Yet, because even our own fed is rolling treasuries off of their balance sheet. So who is going to finance this often irresponsible US spending the 10 trillion or $11 trillion every single year for the next ten years that we have obligations toward already, and it looks like all those are going to be at higher interest rates, too. Now, I am not telling you how to think about us as the United States, for example, sending foreign aid to multiple nations. That's up to you to decide whether it's Ukraine or the Middle East or Taiwan that gets political. And that is beyond the scope of GR. We are an investing show. What I'm saying is that backdrop that I just gave you, that's something that you need to take into consideration, is you weigh those foreign aid decision types.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:05:20) - Speaking of getting worse, do we at least have competent decision makers today? Now, as we'll talk to the father of Reaganomics here shortly, someone that served in an earlier era. Here's a clip from this era that really went viral lately, but it's apropos to play it here. This is Jared Bernstein today. He chairs President Joe Biden's Council of Economic Advisers. How much confidence does this instill? And remember, this guy chairs the economic advisers to today's president.

 

Jared Bernstein (00:05:56) - The US government can't go bankrupt because we can print our own money.

 

Voice (00:06:00) - Like you said, they print the dollar. So why? Why does the government even borrow?

 

Jared Bernstein (00:06:04) - Well, the, so the I mean, again, some of this stuff gets some of the language that the, some of the language and concepts are just confusing. I mean, the government definitely prints money and it definitely lends that money, which is why the government definitely prints money. And then it lends that money by, by selling bonds. Is that what they do? They they, the.

 

Jared Bernstein (00:06:34) - Yeah. They, they they sell bonds. Yeah. They sell bonds. Right. Because they sell bonds and people buy the bonds and lend them the money. Yeah. So a lot of times, a lot of times at least to my year with MMT, the, the language and the concepts can be kind of unnecessarily confusing. But there is no question that the government prints money and then it uses that money to so, yeah, I guess I'm just I don't, I can't really, I don't, I don't get it. I don't know what they're talking about.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:07:08) - Well geez. How's that for clarity and confidence from today's major decision makers on our economy? Gosh. Now, in my opinion, back in 2020, our government, they set up the wrong incentive structure to deal with the pandemic. Remember things like the PGP, the Paycheck Protection Program, remember mortgage loan forbearance and the eviction moratorium. See when that type of aid is given, well, then the result is that citizens don't learn that they need to keep some cash handy, and then that behavior that gets rewarded gets repeated in that behavior is handouts.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:07:53) - And then the expectation for more handouts. 56% of Americans don't even have $1,000 for an emergency expense. Well, see, they're not really incentivized to in the future. If in a crisis, everyone just gets another taxpayer funded handout, but then see those same people that got that handout get hurt in the long run. Anyway, with the longer run inflation that the handout created, don't let there be one day of austerity for the least prepared American, I guess. Instead, bail them out and add on to everyone's debt load, which you know that right there. That seems to be the playbook. Like that is the protocol of the day that is not responsible, in my view. Now, the minutes of the latest fed meeting, they said that some fed officials would be open to raising interest rates if inflation doesn't let up. I mean, that news alone that sent stocks plunging like they were riding the Tower of Terror, giving the Dow its worst day in a while. I'll discuss that more with the father of Reaganomics, David Stockman, today.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:09:01) - It's the kind of episode that can stretch your thinking here. Now, what is Reaganomics? Well, one thing that you should know is that it's committed to the doctrine of supply side economics. You probably heard that term before. And really what that's all about is lowering taxes, decreasing regulation, and allowing free trade and what was called the Reagan budget. That's something that his budget director Stockman expected would help curtail the welfare state. And he gained a reputation as a tough negotiator for that. He lives on the Upper East Side of Manhattan today, and it's kind of funny with macroeconomic discussions. You'll notice something here, the word million, that doesn't even come up that much anymore. It's simply a number that is too small. It is more like billion and trillion. And hey, let's see if the term three orders of magnitude above trillion comes up today. Quadrillion, or even the one after that quintillion. Is that where we're going next? We'll see. before we meet David Simon, I've gotten more questions about something, because the national average bank account pays less than 1% on your savings.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:10:18) - And where do you really get a decent yield on your savings, even beyond the 5% in an online only savings account or a CD, which that does not outpace true inflation? For years now, I've reliably been getting 8%. What I do is keep my dollars in a private liquidity fund. You can do this to your cash generates up to an 8% return. The minimum investment amount is just 25 K, and you keep getting paid until you decide that you want your money back. And the private liquidity fund has a decade plus track record, and they've always paid their investors 100% in full and on time. And I would know this because I am an investor with them myself. So see what it feels like to earn 8%. A lot of other great listeners are any investing involves risk, even dollars at a brick and mortar bank. So to learn more, just text the word family to 66866. Learn more about the liquidity fund. Get 8% interest. Just do it right now while you're thinking about it.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:11:23) - Text family to 66866. Let's meet David Stockman. A Wall Street and Washington insider and Harvard grad. Today's guest is a former two time congressman from Michigan, a prolific author, and he is none other than the man known as the father of Reaganomics. He was indeed President Ronald Reagan's budget advisor. Welcome to the show, David Stockman.

 

David Stockman (00:11:54) - Great to be with you. And, that was a while back. But I think there's some lessons from that time that we would be well advised to try to apply today, that's for sure.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:12:05) - Well, it's an illustrious title that you'll never shake. It's a pleasure to have you here. And David is a real estate investing show. At times we need to step back and look at the bigger picture. And now on the economy, one seems to get a different answer depending on who they speak with. You have a highly qualified opinion. What do both investors and citizens need to know today about the condition of the American economy?

 

David Stockman (00:12:29) - I don't think the outlook is very promising, but I think it's important to understand what that means for real estate investors, because the fact is, if you're in real estate and I know many of your listeners or viewers are very knowledgeable and sophisticated, there's really two ways to look at real estate.

 

David Stockman (00:12:49) - One is as a property that generates a flow of cash or income that is highly reliable, and that you can count on and produces a rate of return on the invested capital that's attractive. That's one way. The second way is that if you invest at the right time, when perhaps interest rates are falling and therefore multiples or cap rates are becoming more attractive and property values are rising rapidly, mainly because of easy money and lower interest rates, then there's a huge opportunity for capital gains. As another way of generating return on capital. But those are two obviously very different tracks. The capital gains route by old invest, improve flip flop the gain and move on or the, you know, income based rent and earnings based, approach to property. Now, I think the reason I went through this is pretty elementary, of course, is that the macro environment is very different between the first strategy and the second strategy. And therefore, the important thing to understand about the macro environment is which environment are you in and is it conducive to strategy a the income strategy or b the capital gains strategy? I would say right now we're totally in an incomes strategy environment, the first route.

 

David Stockman (00:14:34) - And that's because as we've gone through several decades of easy money, of rapidly rising asset values, of ultra low interest rates, very high multiples, in terms of property values to income that has generated trillions and trillions of capital gains for smart real estate investors. But I think we're out of that environment, and we're in an environment now where we're stuck with massive public debt and deficits. We're stuck with a, central bank that is, basically painted itself into a corner, created so much fiat credit, generated so much liquidity into the economy that now it will be struggling with inflation for years to come. Which means, notwithstanding Wall Street's constant belief that rate cuts are coming tomorrow, there won't be rate cuts for a long time to come. And what we're facing, therefore, there is likely higher rates for longer. A environment in which property values are flat if not declining, and therefore the capital gains route is not going to work very well. But if you have good properties with good tenants and good cash flows and, rental flows, real estate mine works out pretty well.

 

David Stockman (00:16:05) - But you have to understand the macro environment. And that's one of the things that I work on daily when I, publish my daily newsletter, which is called, David Stockman's Contra Corner.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:16:19) - You can learn more about Contra Corner, David's blog, before we're done today. David, you have a lot of interesting things to say. There we are in this environment where rates have been higher, longer. It sounds like you believe that is going to continue to be the. Case is rate cuts will be postponed is a little more difficult question. It's some crystal ball stuff. But can you tell us more about that? What can we expect for inflation in interest rates for the rest of this 2020s decade, which has about six years to go?

 

David Stockman (00:16:48) - There's going to be high rates for most of this decade because we have so much inflation and excess demand built into the economy. We really went overboard, especially after 2020 with the pandemic lockdowns and then these massive stimulus program, something like $6 trillion of added stimulus, was injected into the economy in less than 12 months.

 

David Stockman (00:17:16) - That created a undertow of inflation that is still with us. And despite all the hopeful commentary that comes from Wall Street, if you look at it year to date, I don't look at just the CPI because the headline number is somewhat volatile and can be pushed and pulled a lot from a month to month based on nonrecurring conditions. But if you look at something called the 16% trimmed mean CPI, it's just the same CPI, but it takes out the lowest 8%, the highest 8% of price observations each month out of the thousands in the market basket. What it does is basically takes the extreme volatility out of the top and the bottom, and gives you a trend that is more reliable if you're looking like on a quarter by quarter or year by year or even multi year basis, well, I mentioned this is important because the trim means CPI is still running at about 4.3% during the first four months of this year to date. That's not a victory over inflation. That's double what the fed says his target is. And frankly, the Fed's target is a little bit phony.

 

David Stockman (00:18:35) - I mean, what's so great about 2% inflation if you're a saver and your savings are, you know, shrinking by 30% over the course of a decade, so they're going to have a tremendous wrestling match with inflation, not just for a few more months, but I think for several more years in this decade, I don't see the federal funds rate, which is kind of the benchmark rate for overnight money coming down below 5% very soon, or if at all. And that's because with inflation running at 4% or better, if you have a 5% money market rate, you're barely getting a return on capital, especially if you factor in taxes. You know, it's like it's a rounding error and that doesn't work over time. I mean, you're not going to get long term savings. You're not going to get long term capital investment. If the return is after inflation and taxes are either non-existent or negative, as they've been for quite a while. So even though everybody would like to hope we're going back to the good old days of 0% over 90 money or 1% money, which they got so used to over the last couple of decades.

 

David Stockman (00:19:55) - It was bad policy. It wasn't sustainable. It caused a huge amount of bubbles and distortions in our economy. But once we finally got to the end of that in March 2022, when the fed had to finally pivot and say, yeah, inflation isn't transitory, it's, embedded, we got to do something about it. People think we're going right back to where we were, and that's the key thing to understand. We are not going right back to where we were, in part because of all this inflation business I've talked about, but also in part because they got so used to borrowing money on Capitol Hill and practically zero interest rates that they are now, you know, they have built in deficits of 2 trillion or more a year. And, we are going to be pushing into the bond pits, massive amounts of new government debt. There's no consensus to do anything about it. You know, if the Republicans talk about reforming the entitlements, the Democrats say you're throwing grandma out the snow. If the Democrats talk about raising revenue, the Republicans talked about, you're going to get slaughtered with higher taxes.

 

David Stockman (00:21:12) - And then everybody's for more wars and more defense and the bigger and bigger national security budget. And that's all she wrote. If you don't do with revenue, you don't do it national defense and entitlements. The rest of it is rounding errors. And so we're stuck with these massive additions to the debt. Now, everybody knows the public debt. Is 34 trillion. Ready? Yeah. What I'd say they don't understand is that by the end of this decade, you ask about the decade, right? Will we close to 60 trillion of debt. And, if you look at the last CBO, projection they do every year at long term projection, and CBO actually is more optimistic than it is warranted in any way. In other words, their long term assumptions I call rosy scenario. There's no more recessions for the next couple of decades. Inflation is well-behaved, interest rates stay low. Full employment lasts indefinitely and forever. Well, this doesn't happen. Look at the real world. Over the last 20 or 30 years, we've been all over the lot.

 

David Stockman (00:22:18) - So if you look at the CBO forecast, which is I'm just saying here is exceedingly optimistic. They never are the less are projecting that the public debt and they don't even write this number down in their report because it's too scary, will be $100 trillion before the middle of this century.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:22:41) - That's a.

 

David Stockman (00:22:42) - Trillion. Yeah. Now, if you ask people today who are market savvy, I like a lot of your viewers. Where are the Treasury bills, notes and bonds today? Well, if you average it all out, it's about 5%. I don't think it's going to come down much. It'll vary a little bit up and down over time, but let's just say it stays at 5%. That means the carry cost of the public debt of a couple decades will be 5 trillion a year. The interest okay. It's staggering. That's almost as much as the whole federal budget is spending this today at, you know, about 6.6 6.7 trillion. So that's where we're heading, a massive debt crisis because they built in a structural deficit that the politicians and I call it the unite party.

 

David Stockman (00:23:33) - They fight about silly things, but they agree on the big things which are leading to this outcome. The unit party has no ability to do anything about this structural deficit or the march from the 34 trillion that we're at today to 60 trillion by the end of the decade, and 100 trillion of public debt by mid-century. Now, for a real estate investor, that's probably the most important number you're going to hear. You know, at least this week or maybe this month or even this year, because what it means is that the amount of new government debt flowing into the bond pits, that'll have to be financed and that can't be monetized by the fed anymore because there's too much inflation, is going to put constant, enormous pressure upward on interest rates. And of course, higher interest rates mean lower property values. That's just basic real estate math. That's the environment we're heading into, which means good properties with good income and good rental flows are really the only way to go.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:24:55) - Yeah, well, there's an awful lot there.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:24:57) - And with this persistent higher inflation that you expect, the way I think about it is the higher the rate of inflation, the more that moves a person's dollars out of a savings account and instead out onto the risk curve. Well, David alluded to a problematic economy. We're going to come back and talk about more of those warning signs and what you can do about it. You're listening to Get Resuscitation, the father of Reaganomics and Ronald Reagan's budget director, David Stockman, I'm your host, Keith Reinhold. Role under this specific expert with income property, you need Ridge Lending Group and MLS for 256 injury history from beginners to veterans. They provided our listeners with more mortgages than anyone. It's where I get my own loans for single family rentals up to four Plex's. Start your pre-qualification and chat with President Charlie Ridge. Personally, they'll even customize a plan tailored to you for growing your portfolio. Start at Ridge Lending group.com Ridge lending group.com.

 

Speaker 7 (00:26:06) - This is author Jim Rickards. Listen to get Rich education with Keith Reinhold and don't quit your day dream.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:26:23) - Welcome back to Get Ready. So we're talking with the father of Reaganomics. His name is David Stockman, President Reagan's budget advisor. David, you've been talking about a problematic economy and places we can look and the outcomes that that can create. Why don't we talk about some more of those where we're here in a period where we feel like it's an official recession postponed, for example, are there other places that we should be looking? Is it the sustained inverted yield curve that we had for almost two years, the longest one ever, and a Great Recession predictor? Or is it that we're on the precipice of implosion from a debt to GDP ratio that's at 122%. It actually spiked to 133% when Covid first hit. Or for example, is it something and you've already touched on it a bit, is it more of that federal spending on our debts, interest payments alone each year, which had almost $900 billion for that interest line item that now even exceeds the massive $800 billion that we spend each year on national defense, or should we be looking at somewhere else? So what's out there that's really problematic and what's overblown?

 

David Stockman (00:27:28) - Okay.

 

David Stockman (00:27:29) - That's great. And all of those things you mentioned you should be looking at, it depends on your time frame. But I think on the initial question, where is this postponed recession? Why hasn't that happened? The place to look is somewhere that I think most Wall Street analysts aren't focused on, but they should be. And that's a series published by the Federal Reserve that tracks household balance sheets, in other words, liabilities and assets. But there's a particular series that I think is critically important to look at, and it's basically bank deposits, checking account savings accounts plus money market funds. This is all the liquid cash accounts of the household sector, not long term investments in real estate or stocks or bonds, but the short term money. It's the spendable money that households have now, what happened during the pandemic and lockdowns. And then the 6 trillion Is stems that were injected into the economy, like some kind of fiscal madness was going on in Washington, created a total aberration in the amount of cash in the economy, in the household sector, in these accounts that I just mentioned, normally right before the lockdown started and the stimulus was injected, you know, the level of cash accounts was about 12 trillion.

 

David Stockman (00:29:00) - Within two years it was up to 18 trillion. And normally that cash balance grows about the same rate as the economy. In other words, as incomes go up, people save a small share of their income that goes into various bank accounts. There tends to be a lock step relationship. But what happened during that two year period was there was so much extra cash sent out to the households with the $2,000 checks in the $600 a week extra stimulus money, and then the, trillions that went, you know, for things like the Small Business Administration loan program, which was all forgivable, was about almost upwards of $1 trillion. You know, we could itemize all the others. But this enormous government, unusual cash flow into the economy added to these bank accounts enormously. And then something else happened. The geniuses in Washington, led by Doctor Fauci, decided to shut down half of the service sector, the economy. I'm talking with restaurants and bars and gyms, malls and movies and and all the rest of it.

 

David Stockman (00:30:09) - So all of a sudden, the normal money that people would have been spending on the service venues, which is a big part of total spending, was stopped. It was kind of forced into artificial savings, sort of government mandated savings. Now, if you put the two together, there was about 2 trillion, extra transfer payments sent out to the public during that two year period. And there was a little over a trillion of normal service spending, restaurants in, etc. that didn't happen because there was a closed sign on the door, compliments of Doctor Fauci, or people were scared to death to go out because, you know, they created all this fear that Covid was some form of black death, which it really wasn't for 95% of the population. In any event, if you put the extra free stuff from the government, 2 trillion and the for savings because of these lockdowns, trillion, you have 3 trillion of unusual cash that flowed into the economy on top of the normal production. Income and profits and spending that would have otherwise gone on.

 

David Stockman (00:31:26) - Now that 3 trillion temporarily ended up in this account, that I'm just talking about the cash balances of the household sector and its peak, there was about 2.8 trillion extra compared to what would been be the normal case in a regular economy. In a normal economy, that money has been slowly spent down by the household sector, even as the fed has tried to put the screws to the economy. In other words, there was so much extra cash in the system that even as the fed raised interest rates from 0 to 5% and did their darndest to slow things down, all of that excess that was built up during the pandemic period was available to spend. It was spent. And here's the key point. About half of it is now been spent. In other words, there's only about a trillion and a half of the nearest 3 trillion left. Now that is what's delayed the recession. If that big, massive 3 trillion nest egg had been there and the fed began to push rates up as it normally did in a normal cycle, we would have been in recession months ago.

 

David Stockman (00:32:41) - But what has delayed or deferred the recession is this, cushion, this huge macro piggybank of cash that the government inadvertently or adversely is the case may be generated, during the pandemic period. So that's new. See that? Nobody looks at that because normally it's not a factor. You know, the cash balances are a pretty, prosaic, neutral part of the economy. They're not where you look for the leading edge of where the cycle was going or where new developments may turn up tomorrow. But this time, because of this total aberration of what happened to government transfer payments plus the lockdowns, we have a, X factor, let's call it in the macro picture that is confusing people. It's leading a lot of people to abdicate this no landing scenario. In other words, you know, there's not going to be a recession. We're just going to go on to bigger and better things. And, the fed will get inflation under control and then we can be back to happy times again. No, they're missing.

 

David Stockman (00:33:56) - The elephant in the room is this massive aberrational unusual one time cash balance that was, generated by these policies. And that still has a little ways to go now. I think at the rate it's being run down, you can almost calculate it a couple hundred billion dollars, a quarter sometime next year, all of that extra cash will be out of the system. And then people will be back to spending only what they're earning. And frankly, earnings they're not. I'm talking about wage and salary earnings, are advancing barely at the inflation rate at the present time. So when we get back to about zero real growth in earnings, we're going to finally see the recession.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:34:45) - I think one of the big takeaways here is that all these artificial economic injections really take time to unwind.

 

David Stockman (00:34:56) - Exactly. You have to look at, you know, they always say, well, when the government changes policy, fiscal policy, you tighten or you loosen or monetary policy they raise or lower interest rates. They got QE or they got cute putting money in or taking money out that there's lag and lead times in all of this.

 

David Stockman (00:35:18) - The problem is, none of the great economic gurus who talk about this really know whether the lag time is 12 months, 25 months, 50 or 5, and it varies. I mean, the circumstance has changed so much in a world GDP of 104 trillion, a domestic economy with 28 trillion of GDP, and all the complex factors that are moving back and forth in today's world, especially as it's enabled by technology and global trade and the internet and all the rest of it, nobody knows the lag times. And as a result, it's very hard to predict when the, brown stuff is going to hit the fan, so to speak. On the other hand, you don't have to know the exact date. You really need to understand the direction, the flow of things. And if you're in an environment that isn't sustainable because you're borrowing like crazy or interest rates or artificially. Low or stock price multiples are way the L2 ie or cap rates on real estate or you know, abnormally low. Then what you have to say is we're going to a different state.

 

David Stockman (00:36:35) - It's not going to be as conducive as the current state, and we have to be prepared for it, even if we are not sure whether that's 12 months from now or 24 months. But it's going to change. So one thing you can be sure of, there is a famous economist back in my day when I worked on Capitol Hill earlier on, he was Nixon's chief economic adviser in the early 70s. And he famously formulated an aphorism, I guess, which said anything that is unsustainable tends to stop. Okay, that's what I know about the lag times. We're in unsustainable financial, fiscal and monetary environment. And the trends that it has given rise to are going to stop and and not in a good way.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:37:24) - He even fed Chair Jerome Powell has confessed as much as that. This situation is indeed unsustainable, the exact word that he used. Well, David, this has been great in winding down as Ronald Reagan's budget director. Can you share any anecdote, story or quote from you spending time personally with Ronald Reagan? And the reason I ask is because he is perhaps the most revered president of the past few generations.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:37:52) - That might mean a lot to our listeners here.

 

David Stockman (00:37:54) - He should be revered, and not only because he was a great president and a great communicator, and did a lot of important things in policy. Some of them got implemented, and a lot of them were frustrated by Washington and the politicians and the Democrats and everybody else. But also, he was a great human being. And my story about that was when I was budget director, in the fifth year of the Reagan administration, we had our first child, and my wife was in the hospital. At that point in time, President Reagan was in Europe on a very important big international, series of meetings. But, somebody in the white House told him that our daughter had been born. And so he took the time out of his schedule for a call from Germany, the hospital where my wife was, and said he would like to talk to her and, congratulate us on our new arrival. But my wife was in a room with another, a new mother.

 

David Stockman (00:38:53) - She the other person answered the phone and she said to my wife, there's some joker on the phone with President Reagan. And sure enough, he was there. and he took the time to congratulate my wife. And, so that's the kind of, person he was. He really was a great human being.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:39:13) - Wow. Yeah. That really shows that he can still be warm and heartfelt, even while doing some key international negotiations there. Potentially. Well, we mentioned it earlier. I can tell you, the audience, that David is a regular author and contributor to his Contra Corner blog and letter, and you can get access to that for free. This is information coming from the father of Reaganomics to you. If you think you would find it a value. David, tell us how our audience can connect with you there.

 

David Stockman (00:39:44) - Just Google David Stockman Contra corner I publish, I have a website, issues a newsletter every day. It comes automatically in the email. I also have a Substack version. You can sign up for either one, the email from my site or from Substack.

 

David Stockman (00:40:02) - And every day we try to publish something on these issues that we've been talking about. One day it might be Wall Street, another day it might be Capitol Hill, another day it might be, you know, the war in Ukraine. All of these things matter. All of these things influence the environment that investors have to function in. So we try to comment on a variety of those issues based on, you know, the long experience that I've had, both not only in Washington, but also I was on Wall Street, for about 20 years. I was one of the founding partners of Blackstone, for instance. And we were in the real estate business in a major way, even then.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:40:44) - Well, we absolutely love that. And I sure am appreciative of your time. It was great connecting with you. And thanks for being on the program today, David.

 

David Stockman (00:40:53) - Very good. Enjoyed it.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:41:01) - Yeah. Deep insights from the father of Reaganomics. Stockman thinks we'll be struggling with inflation for years to come.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:41:08) - There won't be rate cuts for a long time. He sees real estate values as flat or declining, so have good tenants with steady income streams. Of course, in our favoured real estate segment here, residential 1 to 4 units where you can get 30 year fixed rate debt. Higher mortgage rates tend to correlate with higher prices, just like it has for the last three years and almost every period before that too. But there could be more pain for the commercial sector then, and assets that are tied to floating rate debt. And if you're aligned with David Stockman on that, you might want to look at your helocs, because after a fixed rate period, their rates tend to float along with the fed funds rate. So be cautious with Helocs and ask David for specifics. He doesn't see the federal funds rate coming down below 5% anytime soon, and you probably know that is the interest rate that a whole bunch of other interest rates are based off of. And that rate is currently at about 5.3%. By the way, there is projected to be more than 100 t more than $100 trillion of public debt before the middle of this century.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:42:22) - That's less than 25 years away. I mean, these figures just become unfathomable sometimes. Pandemic wrought inflation that really occurred due to this greater supply of dollars that was introduced chasing a reduced supply of goods. And there were fewer goods because people got paid to stay at home not producing anything. Plus, what had been produced often could not be shipped either. David discussed the 16% trimmed mean CPI, and I've got to say, as much as I am a student devotee in studying inflation, I had never heard of that from his vantage point to find recession signs, look at household balance sheets and what's delayed the recession is that those pandemic measures put an extra 3 trillion bucks into households, and households still have about 1.5 trillion left to spend, which could further delay a recession. He projects that it's sometime next year that all of that extra cash will be out of the system. When you talk to how many people got this recession predictions so horribly wrong? Back in October 2022, Bloomberg Economics forecast a 100% chance of a recession by the following fall, which is almost a year ago now.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:43:48) - Well, a 100% chance that left no room for anything else to happen. And they really whiffed on that one. Now, you know, I've got to add something here. A personal note if I can, but I'll give you a lesson along with it. And that is that at times like today, where I found myself one degree of separation from one of the most revered presidents in all of American history, I sometimes have some difficulty understanding how I keep having the opportunity to share time with people like today's guest. Now, I'm certainly not a PhD economist. And in fact, on the flip side, I've also never been a person that's been so poor and destitute that I was dying of hunger. But I do come from a modest place. When I flew the coop and left my parents home, I rented my first pathetic place to live a $325 a month pool house in the back of my landlord's property at 852 Spruce Avenue in Westchester, Pennsylvania. Yeah, a pathetic little pool house right next to the landlord's swimming pool.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:45:04) - I mean, I was living really pathetically there for a while as I was struggling just to do things like find gainful employment and figure out the world and find a steady income. Yeah, it was 325 a month plus electric and the one small heater that was there, it was electric and it was really expensive to run. And on the coldest days, it wouldn't even adequately heat my pathetic little pool house that I ended up living in for 18 months. And just because I couldn't figure a way out of that situation for a while, I mean, I was too ashamed to ever bring a girl back there to that sad pool house. It was just one sink for the whole place. Combined kitchen and bathroom sink in the bathroom. I mean, most of my friends, they got their driver's license at age 16 and they soon had their own car. I didn't own a car until I was aged 22 or 23, and it's not because I lived in an urban area and walked. Everywhere use public transit there in Pennsylvania.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:46:02) - It just took me a long time to afford a beater car and pay for insurance. I really needed a car and couldn't afford one. So really my point here is that sometimes I have to wonder how I got here from there. And I think what it is is taking an interest in real estate and investing. And despite just having a humble bachelor's degree in geography, it's really about becoming an autodidact, meaning self-taught. And it's easy to teach yourself when you find what interests you. And let me point to two other things besides adopting an auto didactic ethic to help me turn the corner into being in a place where I can have conversations like the one that I've had today. It was getting around aspirational friends. Like I've mentioned before, that showed me how I can start with a bang buy with little money. On my first home, I could put a 3.5% down payment on a fourplex, live in one unit and rent out the other three. And I will give myself some credit for doing those things. And then really, the third thing is that stroke of luck element, like just 4% of world inhabitants have been.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:47:15) - I was one of that 4% that was born in the United States. And then I had two great, married, stable, supportive parents to cultivate the right environment for me. And well, today was just one of those days where I sort of nudged myself and I'm glad that it happened. Most importantly, I trust that you got value from today's show and that you do every single week here. Check out David Stockman's Contra Corner. Next week, we'll look for signs of distress in real estate as we delve inside the foreclosure market and how you can find discounted deals there. Until then, Idaho's Keith Wayne hold don't quit your day trip.

 

Speaker 8 (00:48:02) - Nothing on this show should be considered specific, personal or professional advice. Please consult an appropriate tax, legal, real estate, financial or business professional for individualized advice. Opinions of guests are their own. Information is not guaranteed. All investment strategies have the potential for profit or loss. The host is operating on behalf of get Rich education LLC exclusively. The.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:48:30) - The preceding program was brought to you by your home for wealth building.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:48:34) - Get rich education.com.

Direct download: GREepisode504_.mp3
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We’ve already had more inflation in this young 2020s decade than the entire 2010s.

If the next forty years have as much inflation as the last forty, gas will cost $13.38 per gallon, the average home $1.88 million, and the average rent $59,000 annually. 

Inflation impoverishes most people. You can profit from it 3 ways at the same time. Watch the free 3-part video series: GetRichEducation.com/TripleCrown

The 30-year fixed rate mortgage is a uniquely American construct. It virtually exists nowhere else in the world. I compare this to mortgage terms in Europe, Canada and Australia. 

In much of the world, homeowners have had their mortgage payments double overnight!

Trends that won’t soon be disrupted: more inflation, people need to live somewhere, there aren’t enough places to live. That’s so simple! Invest in it.

Rents are increasing the most where little new supply has been added.

There’s a myth that gigantic institutional investors are gobbling up all the single-family rental homes. But they only own 3% of the market. Mom & pops own 80%.

Single-family rents are up 3.4% per CoreLogic. Detached SFHs are up more than attached types.

Property prices and rents are positively correlated. Some people falsely think that they move inversely.

Resources mentioned:

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Complete episode transcript:

 

Welcome to GRE! I’m your host, Keith Weinhold. Learn how the misery of INFLATION is altering BOTH your quality of life and the return on ALL of your investments…

… also, many people are now having their mortgage payments DOUBLE overnight and IT’S creating pain, then, what are the factors affecting the future direction of RENTS - all that, and more, today on Get Rich Education! 

______________

 

Welcome to GRE! You’re listening to one of the longest-running and most listened-to shows on real estate investing. This is Get Rich Education. I’m your host, Keith Weinhold - the voice of RE since 2014.

 

I don’t know if you fully realize how much inflation is steering all of your investments - and it’s emphatic at a time like this when the dollar is down 25% cumulatively just in the last four years. Gosh!

 

And I’ve got some jaw-dropping inflation fact to share with you soon. 

 

We’ll get to inflation’s RE affects shortly. But here’s what I mean. 

 

In stocks, they keep riding up on a wave of optimism, anticipating a Fed interest rate cut - largely due to future INFLATION expectations. Yes, there’s jobs & GDP and some other factors.

 

But the stock market - which is a FORWARD-looking market - it moves based on what’s expected to happen 6 to 12 months from now. 

 

STOCK investors know that rate cuts open the floodgates to get us closer to the “easy money” days again. 

 

That’s why - as backwards as it is, the worse the economy looks, the lower that inflation tends to be, and then, in turn, the lower that interest rates can go, which the stock market likes.

 

So a worsening economy often pumps up the stock market. Soooo backwards. 

 

Just look at what happens historically. Recessions sound bad. Yet what happens is that rates get cut in a recession - because the economy needs the help. 

 

But nearer-term, it’s this ongoing expectation of the rate cut - that’s been looming out there for months but hasn’t happened - which CAN keep propelling the stock market to higher highs. It’s already hit all-time highs here recently. You can make the CASE that stocks should keep floating higher from here… based on that premise.

 

Before we look at real estate & inflation. Understand this. 

 

Inflation has already widened the divide between the affluent and the deprived. That divide has gone from a gully to a canyon.

 

But... my gosh! Here’s the stat that I want to share with you. And you’re really going to get a sense for the gravity of what you’re living through this decade.

 

We've already seen more inflation in the first 51 months of the 2020s decade than in the ENTIRE decade of the 2010s. Already.

 

This gets really interesting. Let’s look at about the last four decades here. 

 

Alright, in the 1990s decade, America had 34% cumulative inflation. Let’s go ahead and… we’ll associate this decade with President Bill Clinton. 

 

We won’t tie any President to the inflation number because there are lag effects and other factors. A President really can’t take the credit or blame, in most cases. Just marking the era here.

 

So, 34% inflation in the 1990s. 

 

The 2000s decade saw the GFC and… 29% inflation. Most of those were George W. Bush years.

 

The 2010s decade saw lower inflation → Just 19%. So that’s under 2% a year. These were mostly the Obama years here in the 2010s. 

 

Little flex there from the former Commander in Chief.

 

Then the 2020s decade → have seen, like I alluded to, and under Joseph Robinette Biden, Jr. - yes, as the oldest sitting president ever, it’s easy to forget that he’s a “junior. In this young 2020s decade, we have, 21% cumulative inflation. Already.

 

So this figure is after just the first 51 months of this decade, if we’re counting from 2020… and this is largely due to supply shortages from the COVID pandemic. 

 

So 21% ALREADY this decade… and just 19% ALLLL of last decade which was a full decade. That’s the impact. 

 

That’s reflective of what you see in home prices and rent prices and utilities, transportation, labor, and almost every facet of your life.… and what you see in your weekly Costco bill and Trader Joe’s bill. 

 

Who have we left out here? A one-term president, so far? Does somebody feel left out. 

 

Yes, that is the actual person of one Donald John Trump.

 

Psssshhh!

 

All of those figures I cited are from the BLS, and I’ve been rounding to nearest whole percent.

 

But get this! Inflation over the next forty years could make the LAST 40 years seem like a picnic. 

 

That's partly because we're $35T in debt and that figure now grows by $1T every single quarter… every 90 to 100 days. So we MUST keep dollar-printing to help pay it back.

 

But just, if the last forty years repeats itself, by the year 2064, which is the next forty years, we'll see these prices. Prepare for a future that looks like this:

Gas at $13.38 per gallon

The home price at $1.88 million

Average rent at $59,000 per year

And the average salary at $104,000

That is if inflation over the next 40 years, looks like that last 40 years.

Also, note how salaries don't keep pace with prices. That $104K average salary in the year 2064 doesn’t sound as high-flying as those other figures.

 

Well, this is all really frustrating for consumers… and even debilitating to one’s standard of living. Remember, this latest wave of inflation brought us the biggest YOY increase in homelessness - based on HUD figures.

 

and why you need to invest in something that reliably BENEFITS from inflation and pays you an income at the same time. 

 

Look, here’s really, the deal. Dollars are abundant. So then isn’t it a paradox that a major spike in the supply of dollars would create more homelessness?

 

Well, you know that dollars are there for your taking - because so many more have been brought into existence. Dollars are abundant. So as they cycle through the economy, rather than going through the consumer motions, you can build your diverter. That’s where the world of abundance exists, so get into that flow.

 

Ultimately, REAL capital is scarce. Your time and energy are scarce. Natural resources are scarce. Labor is scarce.

 

What’s frustrating is that money ought to reflect that scarcity if it is going to accurately convey the value that enables people to make capital accumulation decisions. 

 

And alas, we’re doing our measuring in dollars and the dollar is not remotely scarce.

 

The middle class and poor often have wages that don't track inflation, yet they disproportionately suffer the higher consumer prices.

 

The investor class owns assets that float up with inflation. And GRE listeners will do even better than that.

 

As income property owners with mortgages, we're winning three ways at the same time with the Inflation Triple Crown. That’s your dollar diverter.

 

Alright, so that’s longer-term inflation. I’ve been talking in terms of decades - both the past and with an extrapolation into the future to 2064 there - and it’s really rather sobering.

 

Well, what's the more CURRENT inflation situation? The situationship? Ha! What’s the situationship now?

 

In trying to quiet it down to their 2% target, the Fed has run into so many hurdles that you'd think they were training for this summer's Olympics in Paris.

 

After it peaked over 9% two full years ago now, inflation’s been bouncing near 3-and-a-half-percent for a year and they just keep having trouble getting it lower than that.

 

Hmmm... would we say that this could turn into Jerome Powell's three-quarters life crisis? We’ll see.

 

Rising inflation is one of the key factors that brought down the Roman Empire. They famously experienced hyperinflation after a series of emperors lowered the silver content of their currency, called the denarius. 

 

Today, some lament that the dollar isn't backed by gold, silver, or anything else.

 

But it is.

 

It's backed by the world's most powerful military, strongest economy, reserve currency status, international trade agreements, and you also… must pay your taxes in dollars. 

 

Dollars are still liquid and useful… but perpetually debased, so get them and then transition out of them. 

 

Yet, at the same time, we're also the greatest debtor nation in world history. The easiest way to pay it all back is to simply print more and inflate more.

 

So that’s why it's almost inevitable that dollars will keep being worth less... and BTW, the two words “worth less” sound awfully close to the word “worthless”. Ha! 

 

That’s where we keep heading.

 

Until you can send a Venmo request to the Fed to compensate you for your loss in purchasing power, we need to actually do something about this. 

 

And the dollar that you had when you started listening to me today could very well now only be worth 99 cents. Ha!

 

We can either have our standard of living degraded by inflation or we will decide to profit from it.

 

So, if you haven't yet, check out GetRichEducation.com/TripleCrown.

 

Rather than impoverish you, learn how you can make inflation CREATE wealth for you three ways at the same time with that free, 3-part Inflation Triple Crown video series. Good learning there.

 

It’s free & easy to watch, again, at GetRichEducation.com/TripleCrown

 

Inflation seemingly seeps into everything.

 

Inflation took down the commercial sector - Apt buildings & offices. Apts are down 30-40% in the last two years. It’s all because inflation made the Fed panic and jack up those rates.

 

If that’s not jaw-dropping enough. Office values are down 80%+ in the last two years. 80%+, 90%+ in some cases. 

 

Of course, office RE got the double-whammy of the inflation-induced interest rate hikes AND the Work-From-Anywhere movement.

 

That leaves residential 1-4 unit properties in good standing - and still impacted by inflation, but LESS impacted by inflation. 

 

Yeah, your 1-4 unit RENTS are up - and I’ll talk more about rent later in the show today. 

 

inflation also jacked up your expenses like insurance, utilities, maintenance & repair cost and more.

 

But as we move away from the inflation conversation now, of course, one big reason that 1-4s have stayed resilient is the American privilege of LTFIRD - and the fact that it’s 30 years for most US properties.

 

In fact, in 2022, 89% of homebuyers applied for the 30-year.

 

I think that you’re about to get more appreciation for this… perhaps than you’ve ever had.

 

The 30-year FRM is a UNIQUELY American construct. 

 

And, BTW, some people don’t seem to know what the word “unique” means. You’ve probably heard people misusing this word all the time.

 

Unique does not mean something that’s sort of different. 

 

Unique means “ONE of a kind”. Unique means something that does not exist ANYWHERE else. 

 

What do I do here on this show? Besides giving you the occasional geography lesson as a side dish to your real estate, I do this with vocabulary, grammar, and syntax as well, don’t I? 

 

Even though my own is surely imperfect.

 

Anyway, the reason that the 30-year mortgage can exist is due to our deep financial markets - especially our secondary market for mortgage-backed securities, where your loan gets packaged up and purchased by a bond investor - a bit like Ridge Lending Group President Caeli Ridge & I touched on last week.

 

The reason that mortgage-backed securities are attractive to investors in the U.S. and across the globe is because their government sponsorship makes them safe investments over long periods of time. They also provide a fixed payout to the MBS holder.

 

And see, the rate on the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage tracks closely to 10-year Treasurys because “U.S. real estate is almost as good an investment as a U.S. Treasury bond.”

 

They’ve got Fannie & Freddie insurance.

 

And that entire MBS process now has more guardrails in it than we had before the Global Financial Crisis.

 

We’re talking about the foundation here - really - of where you get your big lumps of money from - the 30-year FRM and its uniqueness.

 

Compared to the world, the US has very little variable rate debt. 

 

Less than 4% of American mortgage borrowers have debt that’s on rate terms of a year or less. Over 96% of US debt is LTFRD, defined as 10 years or more.

 

That is virtually unparalleled worldwide. To compare us to some other developed nations, mortgage borrowers in Germany - just 47% of them have long-term fixed debt - and none of them can get 30-year debt.

 

Long-term debt, again, defined as ten years or more, 

Is little to ZILCH for mortgage borrowers in Canada, the UK, Ireland, Italy, Sweden, Finland, Australia, and other developed nations like them.

 

In Canada, the most common mortgage terms reset to the prevailing market interest rate every five years. 

 

In Finland, their mortgages reset annually or faster. Gosh, can you imagine if your mortgage rate reset every year like it does for the Finns?

 

Sheesh, that's more often than some people lose the remote control or rearrange their furniture.

 

OK. So what's this really mean?

 

Ya gotta… pour one out for most mortgage borrowers in the rest of the world.

 

They can’t lock in their mortgage interest rate for the long-term. So with rates doubling or tripling, starting from 3 years ago, it's totally ruined a lot of foreign homeowners.

 

Look, what if you're middle class and your monthly mortgage payment soars from $1,893 on Tuesday up to $3,415 on Wednesday?

 

That's what's happening elsewhere. It can go up 50% overnight and nearly double overnight in Australia, Europe and elsewhere.

 

But in the mortgage-advantaged US, we're safe.

 

If we buy at an 8% mortgage rate on a 30-year fixed amortizing loan today—just the plain, vanilla loan:

If rates rise to 10% later, you're happy to be locked-in at 8%

If rates fall to 6% later, you'll refinance

Note that I refrain from saying "just refinance". I don't like the word "just". You'll still need hours to provide documentation and your credit score will be checked. But it's worth it.

 

You won’t “just refinance”. Ha! You’ll refinance.

 

So think of it this way then, you can alter your deal with the bank whenever you want—and usually with no prepayment penalty. Yet the bank can't alter it on you.

 

What did Darth Vader say to Lando Calrissian in the “Empire Strikes Back?”. I am altering the deal, pray that I don’t alter it any further. 

 

Ha! We better not play that clip here. I don’t know the copyright laws with LucasFilm or Disney there. Ha!

 

But you’re not a dark lord of the Sith for doing it… for altering the deal on the bank. You’re playing within the rules. 

 

This is almost an unfair advantage for Americans.

 

The bottom line here - with this unique American advantage, is that, as rates change, you get to play both sides of the game. And that’s why we add smart properties with loans. 

 

We turn that into wealth, with compound LEVERAGE. 

 

Now, mere compound interest, that’s a vehicle for you to rely on more for your shorter-term funds, your cash or what you’re keeping more liquid.

 

Long-term wealth is build through compound LEVERAGE.

 

Short-term funds - that’s for compound INTEREST.

 

And… your bank is getting rich off of YOU. The national average bank account pays less than 1% on your savings.

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What I do, is keep my dollars in a private LIQUIDITY FUND. You can do this too.

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See what it feels like to earn 8%. A lot of other GRE listeners are. To learn more, just text the word FAMILY to 66866 to learn more about Freedom Family Investments' LIQUIDITY FUND. Get 8% interest! Just do it right now, while you’re thinking about it. Text FAMILY to 66866.

 

More straight ahead, including what’s happening with rents. I’m Keith Weinhold. You’re listening to Get Rich Education.

_____________

 

Welcome back… you’re listening to Episode 503 of Get Rich Education. I’m your host, Keith Weinhold.

 

We’ve got a poll result, from our Get Rich Education Instagram Page. 

 

The poll question was simple. “When buying property, what’s more important?” 

 

The purchase price or the mortgage rate.

 

71% of you said the purchase price. 29% of you said the mortgage rate. 

 

Of course, both are important, but I think that the PURCHASE PRICE is the best answer - because your purchase price stays fixed for the life of your ownership period, and you can CHANGE your fixed mortgage rate and make it malleable… whenever it suits your needs.

 

As we talk about where the OPPORTUNITY is today, though multifamily apartments are going to bottom out sometime and therefore, at some point, they’ll make a wise investment - who REALLY knows - maybe the time for larger apartments is now…

 

… one opportunity is… giving good people OPTIONS during a housing affordability crisis.

 

And what’s going on right now is that… let me put it this way… when people have a hard time affording their own home today, basically (ha!) people are having a hard time transitioning from resenting their landlord to bickering with an HOA. 

 

Ha! That’s kind of how the world works.

 

Seemingly everyone would rather be bickering with an HOA rather than resenting their landlord. 

 

A lot of renters want to be buyers… they can’t… and that isn’t expected to change anytime soon… as prices will likely stay elevated… and mortgage rates are staying higher, longer too.

 

These things are ALMOST “knowns”. It’s often wise… to invest in trends that are known. Nothing’s completely predictable, but when you’re looking for a place to park your investment dollars, a few other things… are known… right now.

 

And AI is not expected to change what I’m about to tell you… anytime soon.

 

VR - virtual reality is not about to change what I’m about to tell you anytime soon.

 

AR - augmented reality isn’t either. Machine learning won’t imminently disrupt this.

 

And that is, that… everyone expects more long-term inflation. At what rate, no one knows.

 

People will need to live somewhere… and there are not enough places to live.

 

Those three facts, right there, are so simple. I love simple. Ha! One reason I love simple things is that I can remember it. 

 

So many investors - investors in all types of things, say, from tech EFTs to junior mining stocks to crypto - you can make money there.

 

But, at times, investors will unnecessarily go out on the risk curve and GUESS and speculate… at a future trend. 

 

Some are right. They’re often wrong, and adopting too much of that approach… that’s exactly when your risk-adjusted return goes down throughout your investor life.

 

Instead, you can get great returns - real estate pays 5 ways-type of returns - in these trends that I just described that are near certainties.

 

Why guess? When instead, you can almost be certain.

 

Often times, the certain thing is right… there. 

 

It’s often easier, like I think I brought up on the show once before, inspired by Jeff Bezos - don’t ask what will change in 10 years. 

 

The more insightful question and profitable question that fewer people think to ask is actually - “What will be the SAME in ten years?”

 

Well, when we talk about rents and the fact that tenants WILL keep paying you to live somewhere ten years from now, the trend that’s taking place here in the mid-20s decade - here in the mid 2020s, is that…



Rents are increasing the most where there hasn’t been enough new supply added - up 5-6% in parts of the Northeast including New York and Boston - Seattle too… and parts of the Midwest. Detroit and Honolulu rents are each up about 5%.

 

Rents are decreasing the least, and even declined - where they’ve added lots of new supply recently, like Austin, Texas and Miami, where they’re down 3% or more in each. New Orleans is another major city that’s down - at minus 1%. 

 

But among the larger cities, Austin, Texas is the WORST performer in the nation right now.

 

If you’re listening to this either this week or you’re listening to this ten years from today, if you want to know future rent trends, look at where they’re adding supply.

 

Especially in apartments. But all these new apartments will fill up and nationally, they’re building fewer apartments this year than last year’s apartment-building boom.

 

When we talk about rents and who owns SINGLE-FAMILY HOMES, there are a few myths that I want to help bust for you here.

 

There seems to be this misconception or misinformation that GIANT Wall Street firms are buying up all the SFRs. That’s just not true. 

 

Now, there is more participation from the big firms than there has been historically, but those that own 1 to 9 SFRs… which is our definition of mom & pop investors here… constitute 80% of the SFR market.

 

80% own one to nine units. Now, you might own more than 9. 

 

In fact, 14% are in that next tier up, owning 10 to 99 SFRs. Then 3% - known as small national investors own between a hundred and a thousand.

 

And, what’s left, the big institutional investors - those that own 1,000+ SFRs - and you’ve heard of some of these companies - Invitation Homes, and another is American Homes 4 Rent. 

 

Progress Residential, Blackstone, First Key Homes  - all those big players own just 3% of the market.

 

So again, 80% are the small ones - the mom & pops… a highly fractured market.

 

There are a total of 82 million SFHs in the United States. Out of all of them, do you have any idea what percent are OOed and how many are rentals?

 

It’s 83% OOed and 17% of the single-families are rentals. So about one-sixth of SFHs are rented out.

 

Now, here’s the thing. Some people tend to think of mom and pop single-family rental operators as unsophisticated charity case workers who never raise rents. 

 

That’s part of the perception out there. 

 

But that narrative has never really been true, and, in fact, the COO of American Homes 4 Rent - his name’s Bryan Smith - recently brought up this key point on their recent earnings call.

 

He said that while historically mom and pops hadn't always priced directly to market because of a lack of market data, "they've migrated into a strategy that's closer to ours."

 

How is this and why is this? Anymore, why ARE mom & pops raising rents just about as aggressively as the big institutional players. 

 

It’s really increased transparency on the rents that landlords are asking… through internet listing sites like Zillow. 

 

It's not that mom and pops didn't increase rents before. (I mean… just look at what happened with rising rents in the 1970s and 80s before institutions were in the sector.) 

 

But when there's a lack of rent amount transparency, it takes longer for operators to discover and adjust to market pricing-- especially for smaller players in a deeply fragmented market. 

 

That's the part that’s changing.

 

But see, increased transparency works both ways. It’s good for you and bad for you as a property investor.

 

This information helps tenants too. In upswing markets, operators may push rents faster than they would otherwise. 

 

But in a downswing market, operators may cut or keep rents flat faster in order to lease the unit. 

 

Because tenants can easily see what other LLs are charging and compare features. When you price too high, units sit vacant and generate no income.

 

Since renters benefit from increased transparency too, if they see two similar homes, they're usually picking the better deal.

 

And increased transparency is why NEW lease rent growth is cooling off. 

 

In fact, CoreLogic just released their latest SF Rent Index report last week. It showed that, nationally rents are up 3.4%, which coincidentally, happens to be the same as the latest CPI inflation number.

 

Detached properties are seeing more rent growth than ATTACHED ones - like townhomes. If you think about it, that makes sense. Townhomes are in less demand now.

 

Because the homeownership dream, is when one moves out of the apartment & buys a detached house. 

 

And since that’s so unaffordable to buy here in the 2020s decade, that’s why more people are willing to pay more for to rent the detached type.

 

Note that SFR rent growth has moderated since mortgage rates spiked-- further dispelling the sticky myth that rents boom when home sales fall.

 

Remember - when homes price growth is really hot - like it was in 2021 and 2022 - near 15% - rent growth tends to be hot too. It was ALSO near 15%.

 

And when home price growth is moderate, like it is now, well, rent price growth is moderate too.

 

Prices and rents move together. They’re POSITIVELY correlated. Some people think they move inversely… and we’re looking at history over hunches again - what REALLY happens here.

 

So though you’re almost certainly going to get nominal rent growth over time, it’s not a good thing for you to count on it in the short-term - it NEVER is, in any era.

 

The time for you to push rents is, of course, in any market, when you go for NEW leases. A new lease with a new tenant is going to be higher than a renewal lease.

 

It’s the ol’ - this has been a good tenant for three years, so I don’t want to push the rent too hard & lose them. 

 

To review what you’ve learned today, inflation is affecting ALL of your investments, 30-year FRMs are a UNIQUE American advantage…

 

…it’s wise to invest in future trends that are KNOWN, if you want to know what is going to happen with rents in the near future, look where they’ve added supply. 

 

Less new supply correlates with more rent growth… and large institutional investors own just 3% of SFRs. 

 

If you enjoy the show, please, tell a friend about it.

 

Isaiah on LI had the most flattering comment. Over there, he wrote and called GRE “The best podcast on the planet.” 

 

I… really don’t think that I can take credit for that, though… I’d like to think we’re a good resource for building your wealth through REI and regularly informing you, giving you ideas that you’ve never thought about before that add real value to your life.

 

You’ve heard of Bidenomics. The first portmanteau type that I ever heard about a President’s economic policies is REAGANomics, though it was a little before my time. 

 

Here on the show next week, with us, will be none other than “The Father of Reaganomics”. 

 

Yes, late President RONALD REAGAN’S Budget Director will be here next week. Basically, he was Reagan’s “Money Guy”. 

 

His name is David Stockman and he often met with the President in the Oval Office, advising Reagan on economic affairs.

 

I have asked David Stockman, if besides talking about the condition of today’s economy next week, he’ll also discuss real estate - and he agreed to do so. 

 

That’s “The Father of Reaganomics”. You can look forward to he & I together next week here on the show.

 

You might be one of the listeners that’s been here every single week since 2014 - just like I’ve been here for you.  

 

A new podcast is published every Monday. If you want more our DQYD E-mail Letter is published and sent about weekly, that’s typically been on Thursdays lately. Then, there are many new videos published each month over on our Get Rich Education YouTube Channel. Those are the main three places that you can find us.

 

Until next week, if you enjoy listening, I really appreciate if you would told a friend about the Get Rich Education Podcast. 

 

Until then, I’m your host, KW. Don’t Quit Your Daydream!

Direct download: GREepisode503_b.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 4:00am EDT

You can get financially free twice as fast with the BRRRR Strategy instead of buy-and-hold.

But it’s less passive.

BRRRR stands for: Buy, Rehabilitate, Rent, Refinance, and Repeat. 

You can get an infinite return this way, by generating yield with none of your own money left in the deal.

Learn how to obtain BRRRR financing from Caeli Ridge, President of Ridge Lending Group.

The LTVs are 70%, 75%, or 80% depending on the property and financing type.

RidgeLendingGroup.com specializes in helping investors buy income property.

Resources mentioned:

For access to properties or free help with a

GRE Investment Coach, start here:

GREmarketplace.com

Get mortgage loans for investment property:

RidgeLendingGroup.com or call 855-74-RIDGE 

or e-mail: info@RidgeLendingGroup.com

Invest with Freedom Family Investments. 

You get paid first: Text FAMILY to 66866

For advertising inquiries, visit:

GetRichEducation.com/ad

Will you please leave a review for the show? I’d be grateful. Search “how to leave an Apple Podcasts review” 

Top Properties & Providers:

GREmarketplace.com

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GREmarketplace.com/Coach

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Complete episode transcript:

 

Keith Weinhold (00:00:00) - Welcome to GRE. I'm your host, Keith Weinhold. The real estate BRRRR strategy is a shortcut to growing your wealth. But it's less passive than buy and hold with a property manager. Learn what is the Burr strategy and then about some of its pros and cons, mistakes you must avoid and financing programs available, and how it can generate infinite returns for you today and get rich. Education.

 

Robert Syslo (00:00:28) - Since 2014, the powerful get Rich education podcast has created more passive income for people than nearly any other show in the world. This show teaches you how to earn strong returns from passive real estate, investing in the best markets without losing your time being a flipper or landlord. Show host Keith Reinhold writes for both Forbes and Rich Dad Advisors, and delivers a new show every week. Since 2014, there's been millions of listeners downloads and 188 world nations. He has A-list show guests include top selling personal finance author Robert Kiyosaki. Get Rich education can be heard on every podcast platform, plus it has its own dedicated Apple and Android listener.

 

Robert Syslo (00:01:02) - Phone apps build wealth on the go with the get Rich education podcast. Sign up now for the get Rich education podcast or visit get Rich education.com.

 

Corey Coates (00:01:13) - You're listening to the show that has created more financial freedom than nearly any show in the world. This is get rich education.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:01:30) - Welcome from Bridgeport, Connecticut, to Bridgeport, Texas, and across 188 nations worldwide. I'm Keith Weinhold, and you're listening to get Rich education. Let's Do Good in the world and abolish the term slumlord profiting at the same time by providing housing to others. It's clean, safe, affordable and functional. This is where, you know, on this show, we often tell you how to become financially free through real estate investing in the next 5 to 10 years without having to be a landlord or flipper. We're going to talk about how to shorten that timeline in a moment, but I have a couple resources to share with you. First, one, late breaking development at GRI marketplace that's been popular is in Florida with new builds, brand new construction for plex's duplexes and single family rentals with points paid a 4.25% mortgage rate.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:02:28) - Yes, 4.25%. You can pay fewer points and still get a 4.75% rate. Also, some good low interest rate deals for foreign nationals. Go ahead and connect with a great investment coach and learn about those at great marketplace.com. For a 4.25% mortgage rate. If you're a Spanish speaker or have Spanish speaking friends, check out get Rich education.com/espanol to see my free video course on how real estate pays five ways in Spanish. It's pretty interesting how our team here has applied AI to show me speak it in Spanish. Again, you can see that at get Rich education. Com slash espanol. Now the BR real estate investing strategy is popular because it can reduce your out-of-pocket expense for property substantially. Let's break it down here. That is the b are are are are. There are four hours after the B which stands for the first B is buy. You buy a distressed property that needs to be fixed up. Then the R's stand for rehab, then rent, then refinance at that higher value, then repeat. More of you have been buying BR property through GRE marketplace.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:03:52) - Yes, we help you find not just buy and hold properties here, but properties optimized for the BR as well. There are properties that need some work and they are not turnkey, not ready to go with little or no money. In less than three years, you can have a portfolio of 10 to 20 properties with the BR strategy. That's a shortcut, but that does take some work. It's less passive. You're buying distressed property that needs to be fixed up, and you have to be sure that the contractor is getting the work done on time, on budget, and of adequate quality standards. And vetting contractors and dealing with contractors is not easy. I'm going to have a few tips to help you deal with that today, but if you get it dialed in, BR lets you pursue an infinite return strategy where you buy property at a low price, renovated, get it rented, and then refinance it at the higher value. And at times you can get all of your invested cash out on that refinance.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:05:04) - Well, because a return on investment formula is simply your dollars returned divided by the cash that you have invested in the deal. Well, therefore, if you have no money left in the deal anymore, your return is infinite. Listen carefully. If our guest doesn't do it, then what I'll do is introduce an example here in our conversation for you to get you to help understand the BR. And if this is new to you, this will stretch your thinking somewhat. And then after our break, I'm going to come back and we'll discuss more about any changes to conventional loans for buy and hold investment property. And there's one place that's created more financial freedom through real estate than any other lender in the entire nation. It's time for a big welcome back to their leader, Charlie Rich.

 

Caeli Ridge (00:06:02) - Hey, Keith. Thank you for having me. It's always a pleasure to be here.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:06:05) - Well, you know who she is by now. She leads Ridge Lending Group. They're an investor centric lender, and she does such a good, concise job of explaining what real estate investors need to know in optimizing your loan positions.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:06:18) - And that's why she's here with us again. And, Charlie, rather than just learn about conventional buy and hold loans or refinance loans like we've covered in the past, let's talk about lending for the BR real estate investing method. BR is a method for buying distressed property at a discount. So not turnkey, not fixed up property. Here in BR stands for buy, rehab, rent, refinance and repeat. Now for these loans. Is the lender looking more I guess Charlie maybe we should start with are they looking at the property strength or more at the borrower strength for BR loans?

 

Caeli Ridge (00:06:54) - Well, first of all, I would say that BR is one of my favorite strategies for real estate investors, especially if they're getting into diversifying their portfolio. I think BR is a very lucrative way to achieve the returns that people are after, not only in appreciation but also in cash flow. You can get some really great leverage in these ROI and ends up being better if you find the right properties. So I'm a big fan of the BR, but to your question, Keith, it depends on what product they're going to elicit for the end loan, for that refinance loan, if we're talking about a conventional loan, Fannie, Freddie and the qualifications are still about the individual and their debt to income ratios, etc. if we're going to put this on a debt service coverage ratio, which it can apply to both, or can, I mean, the strategy does not obligate them to one or the other.

 

Caeli Ridge (00:07:39) - So we can go conventional where it's still going to be about the individual. Or we can look at more of a debt service coverage ratio, where it's about the income of the property in relation to the mortgage payment.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:07:48) - And before we go on, of course, identifying a deal is a key here in the BR strategy. Is there any guidance you'd give with identification of that property. Because you might know more from the lender perspective on what's going to be lendable.

 

Caeli Ridge (00:08:03) - Well, as long as it's habitable, we can lend on it. I would say that you really want to pay close attention to a couple of things. From a lender's perspective, the ARV, right? The after rehab after repair value is the linchpin to all of this. And if you're out there getting your comps from whatever sources, the agent or Zillow or Redfin or whatever it is, the more data that you can gather, the better. But just keep in mind that the ones and zeros that you're probably gaining access to don't necessarily have the components that show all the rehab work that you're putting into it.

 

Caeli Ridge (00:08:34) - So if you're getting a value of a property like kind property in the area or vicinity that the property is located, it's not always going to attest to what extras you put in, whether it be the hardwoods or square footage or whatever it may be. Just keep in mind that you may not be on point there, and real estate agents, I would want you to have or be working with one that really understands the BR method, aka investor models, to make sure that you don't get caught in a scenario where you're expecting a value of x that comes in at Y, that can be very devastating to the BR methodology, especially for new investors.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:09:09) - It was more about coming up with the ARV because with a conventional loan on a conforming property, that value that you're lending against is typically the appraisal.

 

Caeli Ridge (00:09:21) - Correct. And the appraisal is going to take into consideration those rehab pieces. But it's not dollar for dollar. And while I don't know that we want to go down the appraisal rabbit hole, I will tell you that if you've got $50,000 of rehab into the property, that doesn't necessarily mean you're going to get a full 50,000 in extra value.

 

Caeli Ridge (00:09:38) - A lot of it has to do with what you paid for it. Like Keith, you said at the top of the podcast here, distressed property. A lot of times when people are getting into BR, they're finding under market value property to begin with, that's already worth more. They're putting in some real value adds, maybe cosmetic, maybe a little bit more, and then expecting quite a bit more in value. So there's definitely a science to it. But just make sure that for all intents and purposes, you're gathering as much data as you can. And the agent, if you're using a real estate agent to help with MLS listings, etc., that they have some basis of background within this, this particular philosophy.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:10:12) - Okay, so we are projecting an RV in after repair value here, and then we need to lend against a percentage of a certain value. So clearly since in this case the property is distressed, well then if the property is the lender's collateral and that collateral is a little, you know, why don't we call it damaged, if you will? Well, then I'm going to speculate that is that lender probably not going to give you as favorable loan terms as they would on a conforming property.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:10:39) - So tell us more about how those bur loan terms look.

 

Caeli Ridge (00:10:42) - So you might be surprised. Again, as long as the property is habitable the LTV is going to be the same. The value of the property. It is probably what you're going to notice more than what the lending side is going to allow for in the loan to value. So on a single family residence, if it's habitable, we're going to give the individual up to 75% of that ARV. Now, I don't know if we're ready to go down this road. I think we should talk about it at some point. The ARV and how we want to maximize and not leave any money on the table. We want to discuss the purchase price and the acquisition. I think we'll come to that. But to answer your question, habitable 75% single family or 70% on a 2 to 4 unit is going to be the maximum loan to value using the appraisal. When we talk about a cash out refinance of an investment property, which may be different if we get into a rate and term refinance as a purpose of Bur, which will probably touch on as well.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:11:36) - What I think for the listener benefit here, maybe it's good to jump into an example if you want to apply some real numbers here to a bird deal, and then let's walk through that with the financing and more.

 

Caeli Ridge (00:11:48) - Let's start with cash out, because it is different than a rate and term. So cash out simply to clarify means that the individual is going to get cash in hand. We are not simply paying off an existing hard money loan. That is a rate and term refinance. So we want to start with cash out where the cash to acquire the property was the individual sourced and seasoned funds. And let's assume that the scenario looks like this. They paid $100,000 for the property. And then there's $50,000 in renovation with the expectation. Or let's just say that we get an appraisal for 200,000. So at 200,000 and it's a single family residence, 75% of that is 150,000. Okay. So that pretty much covers their total acquisition costs. But then we've got a recommendation.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:12:28) - Cost is quite.

 

Caeli Ridge (00:12:29) - Covered. But we have to account for closing costs tax and insurance.

 

Caeli Ridge (00:12:31) - Let's just make it around ten grand. So the individual is going to end up with 140,000 from their 150 total acquisition cost. If you divide those two numbers, you're probably going to be at what? So 140 divided by 150,000. Yeah, 93% overall leverage. You've got ten grand skin in the game. And when you look at it from that perspective, 93% over all loan to value or leverage of this property is very, very high. If you can get a deal to work like that, you're doing very well.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:12:59) - And you can see why people like this and why people are attracted to this. So go ahead and tell us more about this. Because really, when we talk about lending for a bigger property, we're probably talking about two different loans, right? We're talking about the purchase price upfront and then the refinancing later on.

 

Caeli Ridge (00:13:17) - Right. So let's going back to my example. If you paid cash for the property, if that 150,000 was your sourced in season funds. And if you want Keith tell me later and I'll go into what source and season it is.

 

Caeli Ridge (00:13:28) - But you have 150,000 in on this property. The key to getting up to the maximum of 150 back. Or in our example, you ended up with 140 back because we accounted for ten grand. And in closing, cost is to make sure this is wildly important. And a lot of people get this wrong the first time they go down the Burr road. Make sure both the purchase price and the acquisition costs are listed on your final CD, aka Closing Disclosure. A closing disclosure comes to you at closing, where it's a document, a form that illustrates all of the line item pluses and minuses of the buyer and the seller and what everybody netted at the end. The CD must have the total 150 listed on there, and just one number is fine. It can be broken up into two numbers, whatever. But as long as both numbers are listed on the CD, you as the borrower, our client, her guidelines are eligible to get up to that much back. So the guideline states that the individual cash in hand cannot exceed a maximum of what the total acquisition costs listed on that CD is.

 

Caeli Ridge (00:14:28) - So what the common mistake is, let's just keep using our 100,000 purchase in our $50,000 renovation. The common mistake that people make is, is that they pay the 100,000, the seller is made whole. And then the day after closing, they are officially now the owner of this property. They send the 50,000 out to the contractor. Seems obvious, right? Well, in doing it that way, you've left 50,000 on the table and now you're going to have to wait 12 months per new guideline to have 12 months of ownership, seasoned ownership for Fannie Freddie to get the total 150. So make sure that the total 150 is on that CD. And the way to do this, just one more little detail. You want to be working with an escrow company that provides something called an escrow hold back. Because a lot of times when I give this advice, people say, well, I don't really want to release $50,000 to the contractor before they even started any of the work, right? That makes sense to me.

 

Caeli Ridge (00:15:16) - And most escrow companies do this in escrow. Hold back says that the hundred grand goes to the seller. The 50,000 is earmarked for the general contract, you've gotten your bids, etc., but the escrow company will then deliver the 50,000 upon your approval as draws to the contractor as work is being completed. And that kind of absolves that extra layer of risk. But now you've done the appropriate thing for the financing to get maximize your cash out, and you're not leaving yourself in a weird position to frontload 50 grand before you know they've even started on whatever repairs there are.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:15:49) - Yes. How much motivation does every contractor have if they've already got their 50 K for 50 K worth of work before they do their work? And it works this way a lot in the contracting world, where progress payments are made intermittently as the contractor performs their work. So tell us more about what we need to know here. Clearly, especially when it comes to the Bir and loans, because you just gave us a great mistake to avoid there.

 

Caeli Ridge (00:16:13) - Kind of keeping on that theme. And then let's talk about a rate and term refinance. You know, some of the pushback that I'll get when I have these conversations. Well, you get your bids. Okay. We'll start talking about the 50,000 renovation per hour example. And you probably get a low and a high and middle. Maybe you go with the middle. It's been my experience personally and just through conversations that the bid is 50,000. If you don't have the upfront conversation to say, I'm not going to pay a cent over the 50,000 and or you negotiate to say, okay, what is our variance here? Because a lot of times the contractor is not going to be pigeonholed to 50,000. They're going back and say, no, I'm not going to sign anything that says that it will not exceed 50,000. There are costs and things that are out of my control, blah, blah, blah. Then coming up with, okay, fine, 55,000, 50, 2000, whatever that margin might be, including that in there and then having the conversation that says, okay, fine, because you don't want to leave that money on the table.

 

Caeli Ridge (00:17:03) - So let me take a step back. 50,000 becomes 55,000. And if you didn't have it on the CD, that $5,000 is not eligible to get back. So if you increase the amount that's on that CD, per the conversation with your contractor, make sure one of two things that if it isn't spent, that it's coming back to you and assuming if it is, then everybody is on the same page and it's just going to be part of the expense and part of what you have potential to get back. So just food for thought there. Then moving into the rate and term refinance. Now this is something totally different. This means that you went out and got a hard money lump, some kind of a private bridge loan, which by the way, Ridge does. We have bridge loans that can help fund the purchase and the renovation. We can talk about that if you like. But if you went out and got a hard money loan, this is no longer a cash out refinance unless the value is so high that based on a 75% LTV for cash out, that there's enough money on the table that you don't want to wait the 12 months.

 

Caeli Ridge (00:18:00) - I'm going to pause on that for a second and just say that the numbers work for a rate and term refinance, where we have an existing loan. Let's say you've got a hard money loan for 150,000. A rate and term refinance lets us go to 80% loan to value on a single family, 75 on a 2 to 4. If you recall a minute ago it was 75 and 70. That's cash out. Refinance rate and term refinance rules when you're not getting any money in hand, were simply paying off existing liens plus closing costs. They increase the LTV allowances. So 75 2 to 480% on a single family residence. So if we can go 80% on the 200,000, what is that one? I can't do mental math, Keith. So 80% of 200,000 is 160. So in that case think about this. So let's just keep going back to our example. You've got 150 into it. We've got 10,000 of closing costs okay. 150 is a hard money loan that we have to pay off. And the 10,000 is what the new refinance closing costs are going to be.

 

Caeli Ridge (00:19:00) - The value came in at 200,000. 80% of that is 160,000. That's no skin in the game. You have completely covered the hard money loan paid for the closing costs. I mean, you can't get better than that. That's 100% leverage, right? You're not getting cash back. Now let's take that and say that the value came in at 250. And that's a lot of money. In that case, you may want to wait for the 12 months to get that cash back, because you're going to be limited if you use leverage to acquire the property versus your own cash, that's when you're going to have to wait that 12 months. Or if you're cash acquisition, the numbers work out where you'd get an exponentially more amount than what you put into it. You may want to wait there, too. It really just depends on what that RV is going to be. That's why it's the linchpin that'll make you decide whether you're going to wait the 12 months, or if you're ready to rock in in the immediate terms with a rate and term refi.

 

Caeli Ridge (00:19:53) - No seasoning. If you're not getting cash back, I don't care. We can do it immediately or a cash out refinance. As long as you're not getting more back than what you paid for it. And we can show that the dollars to acquire all in the CD and they came from, you know, seasoning.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:20:07) - All right. So it's the BR strategy with the cash out refinance and then the burr strategy with the rate and term terms there, if you will. Is there anything else that we need to know about either one of those.

 

Caeli Ridge (00:20:19) - Really a lot of people always want to say what are the rate differences? And I would say that, you know, overall they're going to be roughly the same when we start talking about those LP's. Again, Keith, low level price adjustments there, pluses and minuses that have to do with risk. A cash out is a higher risk than a rate and term, a rate and term at 80% versus a cash out at 75% might offset that. So relatively speaking, they're probably going to be within an eighth to a quarter percentage point if all the other variables are equal.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:20:44) - Now, clearly, I think of a hard money loan is something that allows. You to put both the purchase price of a property and the projected rehab cost, and roll those all into the loan at closing. That's what I think of as a hard money loan. Is there any difference between a hard money loan and the other things that you're describing to us?

 

Caeli Ridge (00:21:04) - Not really. I mean, it's probably a cat of a different name, right? I mean, a hard money loan, a private money loan, a portfolio loan, a bridge loan. I mean, you could use the same thing, depending on the context of the sentence, to mean the same thing, maybe something different. You're probably right in this context. It's going to be the same, I think.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:21:21) - Well, I want to talk to you more about conventional loans and any mortgage industry trends that have been taking place lately. But before we do, do you have any last thing to tell us about the Burr strategy, where really someone can accumulate maybe 10 or 20 properties in just three years with little or no money, but more work?

 

Caeli Ridge (00:21:39) - Yeah, a little bit more work.

 

Caeli Ridge (00:21:40) - I would say get to know your market, have your team. That contractor. Man, I think you alluded to this. I think that that's the piece that most people struggle with is finding the right contractor for one of the things that tends to work well, if you have established a relationship, is kind of getting in with some kind of a JV with the contractor, right? They've got skin in the game. Maybe if your numbers work out, they get a 5% bonus on the end, whatever. Just to kind of not keep them honest but keep them honest, if you know what I mean. So making sure you've got a good contractor that you can trust if you're going to be doing this out of state from where you live, even more so, doubly so you really want to have the right team. And that includes the general contractor, the escrow company, your lender. Everybody's got to kind of be on the same page if you're going to continue to do this as a rinse and repeat.

 

Caeli Ridge (00:22:23) - And then finally I would say bring it to Ridge. Let's just make sure if you're new to doing this, I want to make sure you're not leaving that money on the table, that we're structuring it appropriately so that we're maximizing the loan to value, we're maximizing your dollar, and that you're not leaving money or leaving money for some period of time longer than what you would have wanted to, because this is a rinse and repeat, right? If you don't do it right the first time, you could be stuck tying up 30 grand for 12 months that you would have otherwise been able to capitalize on. If we looked at it in advance of you pulling a trigger.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:22:52) - Yeah, that's correct. In fact, that last R in the BR strategy is to repeat it. And yet, to your point about contractors, I like to think about what contractor motivations are and what my motivations are. And in times I have incentivized contractors with giving them a 5% bonus if they finish things ahead of schedule or a 5% penalty if they finish things behind schedule and putting that in the contract as well.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:23:14) - You're listening to get versus a case. We're talking with Ridge Landing President Charlie Ridge about getting loans for the BR strategy more when we come back. I'm your host, Keith Windhoek. Role. Under this specific expert with income property, you need. Ridge lending Group Nmls 42056. In gray history from beginners to veterans, they provided our listeners with more mortgages than anyone. It's where I get my own loans for single family rentals up to four Plex's. Start your prequalification and chat with President Charlie Ridge personally. They'll even customize a plan tailored to you for growing your portfolio. Start at Ridge Lending group.com Ridge lending group.com. You know, I'll just tell you, for the most passive part of my real estate investing, personally, I put my own dollars with Freedom Family Investments because their funds pay me a stream of regular cash flow in returns, or better than a bank savings account, up to 12%. Their minimums are as low as 25 K. You don't even need to be accredited for some of them. It's all backed by real estate and that kind of love.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:24:29) - How the tax benefit of doing this can offset capital gains and your W-2 jobs income. And they've always given me exactly their stated return paid on time. So it's steady income, no surprises while I'm sleeping or just doing the things I love. For a little insider tip, I've invested in their power fund to get going on that text family to 66866. Oh, and this isn't a solicitation. If you want to invest where I do, just go ahead and text family to six, 686, six.

 

Speaker 5 (00:25:06) - This is our Rich dad, Poor dad author Robert Kiyosaki. Listen to get Rich education with Keith Wayne. All scripture data.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:25:25) - Hey. Welcome back. You're inside. Episode 502 of gray. I'm your host, Keith. Y'know, we're talking with the president of Ridge Lending Group, Charlie Ridge. She talked to us before the break about her financing strategies and the things that you need to keep in mind in order to optimize your returns there. It's only now back here on the conventional side, we talk more about conforming loans for properties that are already fixed up.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:25:48) - Or maybe people call those turnkey. What about some of those hurdles that investors often have in there? For example, I know that the DTI one exceeding their debt to income ratio threshold when they try to qualify is sometimes a problem. So can you talk to us about some strategies with that? For example, sometimes a person might have a $500 a month car payment, but they only have four or more payments to make for their $2,000 principal balance. And it just makes more sense to pay that off. And then that drops off the DTI calculation. Are there any other thoughts you have with regard to that?

 

Caeli Ridge (00:26:18) - There's so many in this. I mean, we probably have our own episode for all different ways on debt to income ratio and to move that needle. Just to go back to your example, just FYI, if the car loan is financed, not leased, and there are ten months or left reporting on the credit report automatically per guideline we had, we can exclude that if it was at least with ten months or less, we have to keep it in the ratio.

 

Caeli Ridge (00:26:39) - But if it's a finance car, ten months are left are showing on the report. It's automatically reduced from the liability section of DTI. The other things that we're to look at just obvious things. Can we gross up any kind of income. Right. Are there bonuses or commissions or Social Security or veterans benefits or whatever that allow us to gross those up, making sure that we've got all of the applicable income that they gather? Sometimes people will forget to say, oh, I get this. You know, child support or alimony or whatever it may be that I didn't think to disclose. We want to make sure that we have that in there. And then we talk about liabilities we want to look at here's kind of a good one. Student loans let's say that either cosigned or you have your own student loans. Fannie and Freddie have different. And maybe they're in deferment. Okay. So when we pull the credit it shows zero as the monthly payment. While Fannie and Freddie have different rules about what we have to hit them for.

 

Caeli Ridge (00:27:25) - And I could be getting these backwards, but I think that Fannie is 1% of the outstanding balance, whereas Freddie is a half a percent. So depending on some other variables, we may elect to say, okay, DTI is really tight, we're going to take this and make this one of Freddie, assuming that they fit all the other boxes so that we're only having to hit them for that half a percent. Otherwise we look at maybe paying off revolving debt, get those payments down if they're small enough, maybe there's a $3,000 balance that has a $300 payment that's really screwing things up, and they can afford to pay that off. So certainly we can look at those kinds of things, adding in a co-borrower, putting more money down, buying the interest rate down, maybe finding slightly cheaper insurance, right. At least for the purpose of the loan. And then if you wanted to get higher insurance or lower deductibles or higher deductibles later, you could certainly do that. So there's so many different variables that we can look at to really it's not a one size fits all.

 

Caeli Ridge (00:28:13) - And DTI is kind of a slippery slope. And there's lots of different ways in which we can get that down into check. And if it doesn't happen today, we can help them plant the seeds for what to do tomorrow and making sure that we get them there.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:28:24) - Wow, that was fantastic. I hope you, the listener, are listening closely because Charlie just gave so much packed, nutrient dense information about what you can do with your DTI. And for starters, I think a lot of people think about reducing their debt to improve their DTI. But is all your income being credited as well? Hopefully you caught that part which said that. But when it does come to reducing the debt portion, of course student loans have very much been in the news with all these plans for forgiveness. Is that impacting DTI substantially?

 

Caeli Ridge (00:28:53) - If they had the right documentation? Sure. Yeah. If they're on there and we have the right documentation that shows that they are forgiven, but they just haven't caught up with the system, then absolutely.

 

Caeli Ridge (00:29:00) - Otherwise, if they don't have the supporting doc, the letter that says and it's on the credit report, we're going to have to hit them for it, whether there's a payment there or a zero deferred. And then we have to figure out the 5.5 or the 1%. It'll have to be in there. Just depends on what they can deliver in terms of that forgiveness in paper trail.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:29:18) - You do with mortgages every day in there. That's what you specialize in for investors. Are there any just overall mortgage industry trends that really specifically impact real estate investors that have occurred? Or amid.

 

Caeli Ridge (00:29:31) - The rates? Everything is going to come back to the rates. As much as I impress upon people, it really shouldn't be about the rate. And I understand the psychology. Listen. But if they're not doing the math, they're really doing themselves and their future investment a disservice. The shelf life, you guys of an investment property mortgage is five years. Whatever the rates are today, you're not going to have that interest rate almost certainly in 5 to 7 years.

 

Caeli Ridge (00:29:54) - So kind of looking down the forecast of where rates we think they're going to go, the appreciation of the property, harvesting equity, pulling cash out. Keep those things in mind when you fixate on the interest rates. I would say that that's usually what it's top of people's minds. The most recent inflationary data came out. It was hotter than we expected. However, shortly thereafter, if you're watching closely the unemployment rate and the jobs report, I think it offered 175,000 new jobs and the projection was to something. So that's good news. And listen, you guys, you can't have it both ways. We're in a hot economy. I guess it depends on who you're talking to and who you're asking. I understand, but for all intents and purposes we've got inflation is is down. It's not down where the Fed's wanted that 2%. The unemployment rate is very, very low. So in that regard we're doing very well. So interest rates are going to be higher. Unfortunately it balances this way. The worse the economy does the better the interest rates do.

 

Caeli Ridge (00:30:48) - Finding that equal balance I think is the key. And don't ask me, I'm not going to try and predict how to do that. But do your mouth be prepared for refinancing when it comes. Sitting on the fence is usually not going to be to your advantage if you're waiting for interest rates to come down, and that coupled with house values, come down a little bit too. And you may have played yourself out of the refinance anyway for the purposes that you wanted to pull cash out. So just be educated. Call us. We can kind of walk you through some of that stuff. Interest rates, I think, are going to be higher for longer unless we see some real significant data trends, because there's a lag. And what we get from the Fed's and I think they try to put that in there, but who knows what's going to happen. What are they going to see us again June, July. We'll see what happens. If jobs reports keep being light, then maybe we start to see a little bit more reprieve in the interest rates.

 

Caeli Ridge (00:31:32) - But we're still we're what, seven and a quarter, seven and a half for investment property I think in most cases. So if that's too high to cash flow, find a short term rental. Find a mid term rental. There's other ways in which to accomplish your variety of variables. Even in the seven and 7.5% interest rate environment.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:31:49) - Well, there's so much I can say about the fed and the interest rates, but I think you said something very important earlier that the average shelf life of a mortgage loan product is about five years. It's exceedingly few people. Well, less than 1%. They're making their 360th monthly payment ever at a 30 year fixed rate loan. Charlie, I want to ask you what. Maybe it's becoming sort of known as the Charlie Ridge question. I like to ask you this almost every time that you're on the show, because it gives us a temperature of the market, because you see so many loans and so many appraisals come in there, what percent of appraisals are coming in above value? What percent are coming in on value, and what percent of appraisals are coming in below value?

 

Caeli Ridge (00:32:26) - We don't see as many low values.

 

Caeli Ridge (00:32:28) - I think that there was a period of time where that was rampant. It was really frustrating for a lot of people, especially on the Non-owner occupied side. The vast majority are coming in on point, and I think a lot of that has to do with 0809 regulation. Appraisers are kind of scared of their own shadow and overvaluing properties. So I think that they do very everything they can to hit the mark. And I don't see too much over an occasion. We'll see a little bit over. It's more likely to see it over than under these days. I would say, okay, percentages under 10% on the mark 8075 and then over. We'll give it.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:33:03) - 1515. Okay, a few more over than under, but pretty close to right on value there. You do loans in almost all 50 states. And these are the states where the property is located, not where the borrower lives. Right. So it's every state except a few.

 

Caeli Ridge (00:33:20) - Right? We're not in North Dakota and we are not in New York.

 

Caeli Ridge (00:33:22) - Otherwise we are lending in all 48 states where the property is. That is correct.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:33:27) - Yeah. And you specialize in loans for investors. Like I said earlier, what other loan types do you offer investors and others in there because you do a few primary residence loans too.

 

Caeli Ridge (00:33:38) - We do lots of primary. I would say, you know, it's 7030 probably. We're very capable, full service direct lender. What that means is we fund on our warehouse line, we underwrite in house, but we don't service these loans. So we bundle them up in mortgage backed securities and we resell them on the secondary market to aggregators. You guys will know this as servicers. Any Mac, Wells Fargo, whoever is going to be the end servicer of the loan. And I've worked really, really hard to create an environment specifically for investors, not exclusively, but largely so that we're not a one size fits all. So I really appreciate the question and being able to articulate to your listeners, we really do everything. It's very uncommon that we don't have a loan product to feed the actual need.

 

Caeli Ridge (00:34:17) - The one thing that I would say we don't have or don't offer is going to be a lot bear lot loans we don't fund on just bare land, but we can do the Fannie Freddie's bridge loans. So for the fix and flip or fix and hold the BR, we do non QM. This is just non QM is kind of everything outside the Fannie Freddie box. If you can't quite fit into the rigors of Fannie Freddie you're going to be in non QM probably where debt service coverage ratio lives. Bank statement loans live, asset depletion loans live. We have commercial loan products for commercial properties. For residential properties we have. Ground up construction. First line Helocs for relationship clients we have second line Helocs. We had second line for everybody when we pulled back just for relationship clients for reasons that we'll discuss on one on one if anybody's interested in that. What am I forgetting, Keith? You get the point. There's a lot. If you think that you're trying to get financing for residential or commercial properties, please email us and we'll take some information to let you know what we can do.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:35:10) - Well, yeah, to my point, you provide such a great service in a wide palette of options. It's somewhat easier to describe what you don't do. Yeah. And what you do offer to people. And of course, I've done my own loans in there at Ridge and my own refinancings in there. And yes, I usually end up getting a servicer. That's one of the big banks that you've always heard of over the long term that I make payments to. Where does one get started to get things rolling with Ridge or just to ask some questions.

 

Caeli Ridge (00:35:36) - Call us 855747434385574. Ridge, you'll get someone immediately. We don't have any call trees. You'll speak to me if I'm available at the time. Our website's got a lot of great information. Ridge lending group.com email info at Ridge Lending group.com. All of those ways will get you on the books with me, if that's what you like. Or assign you to a loan officer in the company. And we look forward to serving you.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:36:00) - You have given our longtime listeners more good, timely mortgage information than anyone in the history of the show here, and we're all better for it.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:36:09) - Charlie Ridge, thanks so much for coming back on to the show.

 

Caeli Ridge (00:36:11) - Thank you Keith.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:36:18) - Let's review some of what you learned about Bir and their loans today. Once your property is renovated and rented, which are the first and second are the third are. Is refinance for a cash out refinance type? It is a maximum of 75% loan to value on single family and 70% on a 2 to 4 unit, and then for a rate and term refinance, which means when you don't get any money in hand after closing and you're simply paying off existing liens plus closing costs, it's 80% loan to value on single family and 75% on a 2 to 4 unit. And you learn to be sure that both the purchase price and the acquisition cost are listed on your final closing disclosure. You know what I think is interesting with originating mortgage loans today? Overall, it's one question that I've been thinking about, and maybe we'll do a poll on this question. If we do, I'll share the results with you. And that is, do people care more about the mortgage interest rate than the purchase price of the property itself? Sometimes it seems that way to me.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:37:29) - Now your mortgage rate definitely matters, but not as much as the purchase price. I mean, later months or years down the road. After you purchase a property, you can often renegotiate the mortgage interest rate, like if rates fall, but your purchase price stays fixed, that part never gets renegotiated. And like I mentioned last week, low mortgage rates don't create wealth. Leverage does. And to put a finer point on that, consider that in 1971, the mortgage interest rate was 7.3%. Back there in 1971, if you had waited for interest rates to go down, you wouldn't have purchased a home or an income property until 1993. You would have waited 22 years for rates to go down. And meanwhile the price of real estate quadrupled, and many people expect mortgage rates to stay higher, longer. Whether you're interested in the BR strategy or already renovated income, property or even primary residence loans, I invite you. You can get loans at the same place that I have myself for years. That's it.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:38:41) - Ridge lending group.com. Until next week. I'm your host, Keith Winfield. Don't quit your day dream.

 

Speaker 6 (00:38:52) - Nothing on this show should be considered specific, personal or professional advice. Please consult an appropriate tax, legal, real estate, financial or business professional for individualized advice. Opinions of guests are their own. Information is not guaranteed. All investment strategies have the potential for profit or loss. The host is operating on behalf of get Rich education LLC exclusively.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:39:20) - The preceding program was brought to you by your home for wealth building. Get rich education.com.

Direct download: GREepisode502_.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 4:00am EDT

In this episode of the Get Rich Education podcast, host Keith Weinhold explores the current state of home pricing and the housing market. 

He examines whether homes are overpriced or underpriced by comparing them to historical values, gold, and bitcoin, and discusses the influence of inflation and financing on affordability. 

The episode features insights from Danielle Hale, chief economist at realtor.com, on the challenges for young homebuyers, housing supply issues, and mortgage rate effects. 

The conversation also covers the build-to-rent trend, investment strategies, and the importance of increasing housing construction. 

Weinhold concludes by offering free coaching for building real estate portfolios.

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Complete episode transcript:

 

Welcome to GRE! I’m your host, Keith Weinhold. Home Prices Aren’t Really Up! Brace yourself. A mic drop moment on real estate costs is coming. 

It’s an unmasking - a reality check on property prices. Are homes actually still priced too LOW today? How could that POSSIBLY be true at all? On Get Rich Education.

_____________

 

Welcome to GRE! From Belgrade, Serbia to Belleville, Illinois and across 188 nations worldwide. I’m Keith Weinhold and you’re listening to Episode 501 of Get Rich Education.

 

We’ll get to “Are homes overpriced or underpriced today?” shortly. 

 

But understand this…

 

I successfully acquired something at a young age. And you can too. That thing that I successfully got ahold of was not millions of dollars… because I came from average means.

 

What I intentionally and successfully acquired was millions of dollars in debt.

 

Yes, obtaining millions in debt from a young age… is what led to me quitting my day job while I was young enough to enjoy it.

 

You, the longtime listener, COMPLETELY understand and appreciate what I just said. If you’re a newer listener, that sounds unusual or even irresponsible. Well, come along for the ride. 

 

Also, a layperson - or a newer listener - would respond with, “No one talks that way, thinks that way, or does that.” - taking out millions in debt and calling THAT aspirational.

 

But using that debt as leverage is how you ethically take funds from the big banks - take Chase Bank’s money, take Bank of America’s money, take Wells Fargo’s money - learn how to use it, be a responsible steward of the funds, provide good housing for people and prosper. 

 

That means you get the return on both your down payment - and the entire amount that you borrowed from those banks. That all goes to you. And both your tenants and inflation pay the debt back - not you.

 

Look, I know one person. I personally know a guy - Greg. Greg makes $80K a year from his day job. Good guy, married guy, one kid. 

 

And his NW increased by $2M just in the COVID run-up. He has a modest salary but his NW is up $2M just since 2020.

 

First of all, do you think that any of Greg’s co-workers experienced that effect? No, he’s really going down my path. You soon get unrelatable to co-workers and even some of your peers.

 

Well, what makes it possible for a good family guy - or anybody - to go from a middling salary to obtaining life-changing wealth? 

 

It takes leverage. He borrowed for bank loans. That way, he could acquire 5x as much property than if he paid all cash for his rental properties. 

 

That way, he had 5x as MANY properties… and properties all appreciate at the same rate regardless of how much equity you have in them. 

 

See, if he had paid all cash, he’d only have a $400K capital gain. Not bad, but $2M is life-changing. Thanks to leverage.

 

Everyday people obtain life-changing wealth this way. It’s so substantial… that it won’t only affect Greg’s life. If he continues on this way, it’ll take care of his children, grandchildren, and great grandchildren. 

 

And you know, maybe this is why, one of the most recurrent guests we’ve had here in the history of this GRE, Ken McElroy, he says:

 

“The best investment in RE is the one that appreciates the most, not the one that cash flows the most.” That’s Ken McElroy. And now you can see why he says that.

 

Leveraged appreciation creates wealth the fastest. Cash flow is important and it CAN boost wealth but that happens more slowly. Principal paydown doesn’t create it - it enhances it… and it’s the same with tax benefits.

 

Deferring your tax on a 1031 means that you can re-leverage a greater amount.

 

Low interest rates also don’t create wealth. In fact, I bought my first ever income property with a 6⅜% mortgage rate and my second income property with a 7⅝% rate - that second one had interest-only payments. 

 

But I borrowed the maximum amount that I could without OVERleveraging. Overleverage means losing control of the mortgage and operating expenses.

 

The lesson here is… get the leverage.

 

And… case in point. Here we go…

 

Speaking of appreciation, the LATEST Case-Shiller Home Price Index figure came in. The US currently has… 6.4% YOY home price appreciation. Now, their index is only based on 20 cities but that gives you a pretty good idea. 

 

In fact, that is the fastest rate of increase since 2022.

 

Now, if you’ve let equity build up in your properties to the point that they’re half paid off, you had 2x leverage, meaning the 6.4% appreciation just gave you a 12.8% leveraged return on your skin in the game.

 

And, of course, if you leveraged with a 20% down payment a year ago, that 6.4% means that you just got a 32% return.

 

And as we know, these returns I just told you about are from one of just one of FIVE ways that you’re expected to be paid simultaneously.

 

But yeah, a 6.4% higher is merely a DOLLAR-DENOMINATED price. That’s what that is. Why do I say that carefully? 

 

Well, there are a few reasons that home prices are 6.4% higher - inflation from dollar printing could be why, the value - not price - but some properties have a greater VALUE, distinctly separate from inflation.

 

What’s the distinction there - how does this happen? What’s one difference between an INFLATED price and a greater value? 

 

Well, say that a local economy is hot because there are more high-paying jobs there now than there were last year - say an influx of medical jobs or AI jobs or chipmaking jobs. 

 

Well, even absent inflation, a property that now has PROXIMITY to better-paying jobs - that’s now a property that’s more desirable. 

 

Someone is more willing to PAY MORE FOR - and simply CAN pay more for. Again - that phenomenon is ABSENT inflation.

 

What’s another reason that home prices rise - and rose 6.4% YOY in this case? 

 

If better PHYSICAL AMENITIES are in new homes than there used to be - say bigger garages or new communities with pickleball courts, well, people are more willing to pay more for that. 

 

To review, there are three reasons that home prices go higher: inflation, appreciation from value creation - like how the same home is now located closer to more high-paying jobs, and thirdly, better built-in amenities.

 

All three of those increase dollar-denominated price or value. They all increase the nominal price.

 

Now, let’s pivot into the fact that “Home Prices Aren’t Really Up”. 

 

I’ve covered this a little before, but I’m going to go deeper today in giving you the most comprehensive look at home prices today - compared to the past - perhaps than you’ve ever had in your life.

 

Some might say, “C’mon. How can this be? Homes cost, perhaps 40% more than they did just four years ago.”

 

Well, I’ve got a mic… drop… moment… coming.

 

- Home Prices Aren’t Really Up.

 

We need a good measuring stick to see what home prices are doing. So we’ve got to stop pricing homes in dollars for a minute. It's a poor long-term value measure.

 

Ludicrous inflation means the dollar has lost over 25% of its value just since 2020, and 97% of its value since 1920.

 

Let’s use a commodity and money that has been valued for five millennia - and its physical properties have not changed one bit in allll that time, and its valued across continents and cultures - that’s 50 centuries of value! That’s gold. 

 

We’ll get to a more modern measure soon. But first, gold is the best one.

 

Now, I don’t know who to credit, but for a while, there was an image floating around out there that GRE got ahold of. 

 

It showed that 10 kilos of gold would buy you an average home back in 1920… and also, that 10 kilos of gold would still buy you an average home today… total… mic… drop… moment. Wow! Is there any better evidence that home prices are NOT up - but higher prices reflect that the dollar is down?

 

Actually, yes, there is a little better evidence. We ran the numbers here and learned that - it’s even more astounding than that! 

 

You run how many dollars per ounce gold is worth, that 35ish ounces are in a kilo and you look at home prices then and now and we discovered that - it’s even more of a jaw-dropper…

 

… because in 1920 - which I’ll just call a century ago - you could buy an average home for 8 kilos of gold and today, you can buy an average home for just 6 kilos of gold.

 

So if you want to know how much home prices have changed in the last century, they are down 25%. 

 

They’re 25% cheaper today in terms of gold - clearly a more stable value indicator than horrendously diluted dollars are.

 

And also, GRE made a new image that shows this - 8 kilos for an average home a century ago, 6 today. I sent you that image in our newsletter about ten days ago and that image got shared a LOT of times.




Your first reaction to this whole thing could be: "Wow! That's wild. The dollar really is sooo diluted."


Alright. What about home prices in terms of a popular, nascent asset that only arrived fifteen years ago, bitcoin?

  • 2016: Average home cost $288K, or 664 bitcoins.

  • 2020: Average home cost $329K, or 45 bitcoins.

  • 2024: Average home cost $435K, or 7 bitcoins.

So, eight years ago, a home cost 664 bitcoins and today it costs 7. 

That means that home prices are down 25% in terms of gold in the last century.

But they’re down 99% in bitcoin over just the last 8 years.

And the dropped mic keeps reverberating through the stadium.


Today's homes are cheaper in gold and drastically cheaper in bitcoin. 


See, it takes real world resources and proof of work to create real estate, gold, and bitcoin. None of these things are required to produce a dollar - none of them. That's why its value is approaching zero.


But let’s go deeper. You need more answers - you are part of a really intelligent audience. 


Because you might be thinking: "Wait a second. Some other things have changed too." For real people - everyday people - aren't home prices actually more out of reach than this?


That's because since 1920, home prices have risen faster than incomes. That puts them OUT OF REACH for more people.


Something else has changed. A home's lot size is smaller today too - the land that comes with the property has a smaller area.


Let’s understand too - homes also use some cheaper materials today. For example, heavy, milled raw wood doors - the interior doors - of yesteryear have given way to molded particle board today.


This is beginning to build the case - evidence - that homes SHOULD be cheaper than they are today. 


Let’s keep going, because there’s more to consider.


Mortgage rates themselves - just rates in isolation - they don't put homes out of reach at all. The long-term average is 7.7%, per Freddie Mac, on the 30-year FRM. That average goes back to 1971, when they first began tracking them. 


Oppositely, you can make the case that U.S. homes should cost even more than they do today.


In many advanced nations, homes are way more pricey. Even next door in Canada, they cost about 20% more than U.S. homes. Canadian salaries are lower than US salaries too - yet their home prices are markedly higher.


On some levels, you're getting more "home" today in the US. 


A 1920 home would feel savagely uninhabitable to you if you tried to live in one now. 

Here’s what I mean…

  • In 1920: 1% of homes had electricity and full plumbing.

  • Today: 99% of homes have electricity and full plumbing.

What I mean then, by savagely uninhabitable, is enjoy walking to the outhouse in the middle of the night when it's 35 degrees.


Then there's size:

  • 1920: The average home had 242 sf per person.

  • Today: The average home has 721 sf per person.

Because today, family sizes are smaller and homes are way larger too.

Today's amenities would be unthinkable in 1920—walk-in closets, roofs with R38 insulation, double-paned thermal windows, smart thermostats, voice-controlled lighting, quartz countertops, and Kitchen Aid appliances. Maybe even a security system. They’re all things that homes have today.


Gosh, even the fact that you have a garage - a HEATED garage even, finished basement, air conditioner and modern washer-dryer would leave 1920 homeowners dumbstruck with their mouth agape—maybe even flabbergasted. Those old folks from yesteryear wouldn’t believe all that you get with a home today.


Yet that 1920 home would have cost you more in gold, than today’s more sizable homes with all their plush amenities.


Now, when it comes to - though home prices aren’t up, are they more “out of reach” for the average American?” Over the past five years, they ARE - because home prices have now risen faster than incomes over THAT stretch.


But another BIG reason that homes are SUBSTANTIALLY more affordable today than they were in 1920 is… financing terms. 


Today, you can make a down payment for between 3% and 20% on a home. Do you know what loan terms were like in 1920? You had to make a 50% down payment and then had to pay off your mortgage in 5 years. 

Can you IMAGINE if that were the case today? How many people could put 50% down on a home today and then pay off the balance within 5 years. Virtually nobody. That’s why homes are more within one’s grasp today.


Overall, you can see that there are a lot of countervailing factors here… tempering that it took 8 kilos of gold to buy a home a century ago, and it just takes 6 kilos today. 


The bottom line here is that, long-term, real home prices aren't up. Dollars are down because they've been printed like crazy. 


From today, nominal home prices could keep rising for years.

 


 

Dustin on social had a funny comment about this - “How many baconators from Wendy’s would it take to buy a home today?” Ha! 

 

I don’t know. I guess that’s a hamburger - I don’t go to Wendy’s. Maybe then, a home costs 60,000 baconators today. 

 

Coming up straight ahead - what will happen first - a $750K median-price home, $100K bitcoin, or $5K gold.

 

Also, what’s perhaps the biggest trend in real estate investing that not enough people are talking about - and how you can make money from it… and more… all next - I’m KW. You’re listening to Get Rich Education. 

______________

 

Welcome back, to Get Rich Education. I’m your host, Keith Weinhold.

 

On our latest GRE Social Media Poll, we ran this question.

 

What will happen first?

 

The median home value hits $750K.

Bitcoin hits a $100K price. Or…

Gold hits $5K.

 

I’ll give you the result, but what do you think? Again, which one of these three things will happen first? 

 

The median home value hits $750K.

Bitcoin to $100K. Or…

Gold hits $5K.

 

The results across both LI and IG were pretty similar - sometimes you get differences there, as LI is a more professional audience. 

 

One voter in the poll also commented - it’s syndication attorney Mauricio Rauld, who we’ve had here on the show before. 

 

Mauricio said: I think assuming Bitcoin doesn't collapse, it probably makes a run to $100K in the next few years (who knows, could be next few months). But with the median home, at 10% a year, it would take 6 years to hit $750K so that is a decade away. That’s his thought - sounds reasonable. 

 

The poll RESULT is:



Bitcoin will hit $100K first. That was most likely, with 57% of you answering that. That makes sense since its volatile and close to striking distance.

 

The median home value will hit $750K finished 2nd. 26% of you said that.

 

And gold up to a $5K price got just 17% of the vote. That makes sense since gold prices would have to about double from here.

 

You can always join along in the conversation and polls. We are really easy to find - because on virtually every social platform - Facebook, Instagram, LI, YouTube - we ARE: “Get Rich Education”.

 

Over on the Get Rich Education YouTube Channel, I recently covered how the Fed is overseeing a “Tug of War” between inflation and a recession. They don’t want the game to end. The Fed is trying to keep the game going. 

 

They don’t want participants on either side falling into a pit in the middle of the Tug of War game between inflation and a recession. They don’t want either side to win. If one side wins, the Fed loses.

 

This “Tug of War” game is really a great way to understand how the Fed works, how they control your money, and what their motivations are. A video about that is on our YouTube channel - where you get the visual of the Tug of War game between inflation and a recession.

 

That’s just one example of how that content is often different from what you’re hearing now. Get more… on our YouTube Channel… called “Get Rich Education”.

 

The homeownership rate just fell again a little, quarter-over-quarter, increasing the number of renters and rental demand, which I expect will only continue. From CNBC, Realtor.com’s Chief Economist Danielle Hale tells us more. Let’s listen in. It’s about why the housing market is pretty dire for young Americans, then I’ll be right back with some key commentary on this.



Yeah, there in Economist Danielle Hale’s interview - if mortgage rates go higher, inventory pulls back and we tend to see modest HPA. Most agree that if mortgage rates go lower, we’ll see RAPID HPA.

 

She also just keeps exposing what we all know. “We need to build more housing”.

 

A brand-new home constructed with a renter in mind, sold to an investor, is known as build-to-rent housing. You’ll see it abbreviated BTR. It's usually single-family.

 

Some abbreviate it B2R. These must be the same people that say H2O instead of water. 

 

It's become massively popular.

 

Despite an overall housing shortage, last year, a record 27,495 BTR homes were completed. 

 

That's up 75% from the prior year and up an astounding 307% since pre-pandemic deliveries back in 2019.

 

So what's driving the build-to-rent trend?

  • Locked into low mortgage rates, existing homeowners won't sell. So, instead, new inventory must be constructed.

  • More overall housing demand than supply.

  • Wannabe first-time homebuyers cannot afford homes today. Renting a BTR is next best. National BTR occupancy is over 96%.

BTR operates similarly to apartment buildings under property management, yet offer a single-family living experience.

 

Some of these communities have: leasing offices, pools, and fitness centers.

 

The homes themselves often have: luxurious modern finishes, garages, and fenced backyards.

 

What's in it for investors? How do you make money with BTRs?

  • 5% mortgage rates* (I’ll get back to that in a minute)

  • A long-term ownership focus, generating revenue over time rather than immediately

  • Tenants have a house-like feel. Expect 3+ years avg. tenancy duration.

  • Mgmt. fees are low because all houses are the same and all in the same area too

  • BTR purchase prices are HIGHER than resale property. You will pay more.

  • Expect better appreciation than resale property

  • The rent range is often $1,500 to $3,500

  • You can expect low maintenance. It's new.

  • Builder home warranty

So there are a ton of factors that give build-to-rent investor appeal.

Really, 5% mortgage rates? Yes. Here at GRE, we can introduce you to some BTR homebuilders that will buy down your rate for you. One is lowering it to 4.75%. 

 

I encourage you to get that incentive now, because when mortgage rates fall substantially, I don’t expect these national and regional homebuilders to keep giving you the rate buydown. 

 

Sorry J-Pow. This kinda makes your next Fed rate decision… seem pretty irrelevant.

 

It's a great rental model to pursue and an amazing time to do it with the rate buydowns. I wish BTR would have existed when I began as an investor.

 

You really didn’t start hearing about BTR at all until about ten years ago.

 

Now, I appear as a guest on other business and investing shows. Quite a few times, the host asks me where the REI opp is today. 

 

The answer that I’ve been giving is that it’s with build-to-rent properties and these rate buydowns.

 

An income-producing asset is like your employee that’s working for you—but without the personality problems. The property is also working for you 24/7. 

 

Besides just helping you find the best BTR deals today, we can help set up an entire real estate investment portfolio plan for you.

 

-We can help build an income-producing RE portfolio for you with our free coaching. Truly free. 

 

Now, if you’re new here, you might think that we’re trying to sell you something - and we aren’t. 

 

The way it works elsewhere is that some people get attracted to the free thing and then once you’re on the phone or Zoom or free live, in-person event, they’re going to try to sell you their better PAID coaching or some online course for a fee.

 

We don’t even sell coaching or sell a course. This is free no-strings, no upsell, no catch coaching. 

 

OK, it’s sort of the opposite of your auto dealer calling you about your extended warranty - an overpriced item that you don’t want. Ha! If you want to buy something from GRE, you can’t because we don’t even have anything to sell you. We are here to help! 

 

Also, I have no problem with companies selling paid courses or paid coaching - not at all. Some courses are worth paying for. It’s just not what we do or have EVER done here.

 

But see, buying real estate that you own directly is still not as simple as just finding a keyboard and pressing: Ctrl, alt,  Deal.

 

So that’s why our Investment Coaches help you learn your goals, and navigate the process. Then you’ll want to keep in touch with your coach because the best deals are often changing. 

 

For example, you might think that you want to buy income property in, just say, Alabama, because its prices haven’t run up as much as they have in Florida.

 

But we keep regular lines of communication open with build-to-rent homebuilders nationwide… and say there’s a new community, in, Florida, where the real deals are going to be for the next few months… 

 

…and though you still like Alabama, you like how Florida is growing faster so you end up going there.

 

Or there’s better cash flow with some BRRRR strategy properties in say, Ohio, that we have that your coach informs you about. 

 

So, I encourage you. Get & maintain a line of communication with your GRE Investment Coach.

 

To review what you learned today:

 

Leverage is THE most powerful wealth creator.

 

You can make the case that homes are NOT overpriced today. Home prices aren’t up; the dollar is down.

 

No one knows the future. But there is ample room for more home price growth. 

 

Build-to-Rent property keeps increasing in popularity… and investors can get mortgage rates on them as low as about 5%.

 

To contact an investment coach, it’s free, start at GREmarketplace.com.

 

Until next week, I’m your host, KW. DQYD!

Direct download: GREepisode501_c.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 4:00am EDT

Become a time billionaire.

In this episode of the Get Rich Education podcast, host Keith Weinhold explores the significance of living an extraordinary life, emphasizing the importance of time management and the value of time. 

You are here today, gone tomorrow.

Gain new perspective on life and death.

The show promotes strategies for achieving financial freedom through real estate investing. 

A hypothetical scenario examines the potential impact of eternal life on Earth's resources, prompting listeners to consider the implications of unlimited population growth. 

The episode offers a blend of motivational content and practical wealth-building advice, with a side of philosophical musing on the nature of time and life's finitude.

We listen in to Neil deGrasse Tyson’s “Life and Death: A Cosmic Perspective”.

Resources mentioned:

For access to properties or free help with a

GRE Investment Coach, start here:

GREmarketplace.com

Get mortgage loans for investment property:

RidgeLendingGroup.com or call 855-74-RIDGE 

or e-mail: info@RidgeLendingGroup.com

Invest with Freedom Family Investments. 

You get paid first: Text FAMILY to 66866

For advertising inquiries, visit:

GetRichEducation.com/ad

Will you please leave a review for the show? I’d be grateful. Search “how to leave an Apple Podcasts review” 

Top Properties & Providers:

GREmarketplace.com

GRE Free Investment Coaching:

GREmarketplace.com/Coach

Best Financial Education:

GetRichEducation.com

Get our wealth-building newsletter free—

text ‘GRE’ to 66866

Our YouTube Channel:

www.youtube.com/c/GetRichEducation

Follow us on Instagram:

@getricheducation

Keith’s personal Instagram:

@keithweinhold

 

Complete episode transcript:

 

Welcome to GRE! I’m your host, Keith Weinhold. You need to become financially-free so that you have… time to be present and live in the “now”. 

 

You are here today and gone tomorrow. There’s not much time to leave your dent in the universe. All that you ever have is now - and that’s how it will always be. Today, on Episode 500 of Get Rich Education.

 

Welcome in… to Get Rich Education. I’m your host, Keith Weinhold.

 

At times, people tell me something like: “Look at what you’re doing. You live an extraordinary life.” 

 

Now, I might reply to that person with something like - “Thanks. I appreciate it. I like to get out and see the world.”

 

But do you know what’s really going on inside my head when someone tells me that I live an extraordinary life? 

 

I’m really thinking, “Well, of course, I do. Don’t you? You design your life: So why would you choose anything… else or anything… less… than an extraordinary life?” 

 

Esp. in this world of abundance that we all live in. That’s why you have zero reason to live any life that’s LESS than extraordinary - if that’s what you want.”

 

Investing for income now is a tool for freedom.

 

When you're no longer trading your time chiefly for dollars, that's when you can stop living a disembodied existence - when you’re living such that your mind and your body are in two different places. 

 

Begin to own your time and truly be yourself.

 

You need time.

 

And you don’t have much time. That’s why, in my experience, it's better to err on the side of being too early over being too late. 

 

Are you truly living… or are you only existing in space and time? I think that deep down… you know. Ask yourself. You already know the answer.

 

Remember, Episode 1 of this very show is called: “Your Abundance Mindset.”

 

But if you’re thinking in LIMITING ways, here’s the good news - the really good news for you.

 

You don’t have to believe everything that you think. 

 

The good news is that… you were born rich. You were born with an abundance of choices. Society stifled that. 

 

You don’t have to believe… everything that you think. 

 

Since there's never a "perfect time" to build financial freedom, your conception that it's too early is often just your fear. 

 

As long as you've got a few touchpoints, once you dive in, you'll figure it out.

 

Old people tend to regret the things they didn't do, or didn't do earlier—not the things they did.

 

The best reason for becoming financially-free is so that you can buy time and finally start to be yourself.

 

If you don’t want to do it for yourself, do it for someone you love… because there's someone in this world that needs you to be... you.

 

Since all that you’ll ever have is “now”, you need residual income to buy time so that you can spend more of your life present in the “now”.

 

Now, if you were to ask yourself, what made the most successful leaders in the world successful, was it the capital they had, their technology, the people they knew, or their mindset? Which one of those things was it?

 

It’s their mindset.

 

See, because if you took away the capital, technology, or friendships from Jeff Bezos or Steve Jobs or Mahatma Ghandi or MLK - whoever you want to use as your leader.

 

If you took away those elements but they retained their mindset, they would most likely go on to regain everything they’ve got.

 

That’s why you must deeply explore and consider, what mindset do you have, where did you get your mindset, and what mindset do you need for the decades ahead?

 

Did you get it from… your parents? If so, I’m sorry to say, that’s usually a red flag… and that’s where most of us get our mindset from. 

 

But most people never learn differently.

 

Realize this - and this is a little hard to say. But the truth is hard. 

 

Your parents don’t want your success. Isn’t that ironic? Your very own parents don’t want your success; they want your safety. 

 

They want you to have a stable, safe, say, accounting job, in a cubicle that only gives you two weeks of vacation a year - because it’s KNOWN and average.

 

A ship in harbor is safe; but that’s not why ships are built. Some safety is OK. But you weren’t built to live a life CENTERED on safety either.

 

That’s not even approaching living your dreams or doing anything ‘extraordinary’.

 

Most people aren’t living their dreams. They’re living their fears.

 

When your parents had you at birth - in the hospital delivery room - they’d be thrilled to know that you’d grow up to live your DREAMS. But on the day-to-day, they’ve got you living your fears. 

 

Once your parents got “newborn you” home from the hospital, all the way up to adulthood, an overly fragile safety mindset often becomes pervasive… and it stifles dreams.

 

If you don’t take a chance, you don’t have a chance. Take the risk or lose the chance.

 

Don’t live below your means; grow your means. It’s in your genes… though that probably wasn’t part of the mindset of your formative years.

 

I love my parents. They cultivated the right environment for me. But you’ll often find an overabundance of safety from yours - especially from your mother.

 

Eckhart Tolle said: “Most humans are never fully present in the now, because unconsciously they believe that the next moment must be more important than this one. But then you miss your whole life, which is never not now. That’s Tolle.

 

Alright. But once you’ve made time, what’s next? It’s how you arrange your priorities. 

 

We think it’s about time management - and it STARTS THERE. 

 

True achievers in life make large blocks of uninterrupted time - notifications off, phone one room away.

 

But more specifically, it’s about your priority management.

 

For me, I know that I’m going to be living in this same body 50 years from today - just like you will inside yours, so I make FITNESS a priority in life - often at the expense of investing & business opportunity. 

 

That’s my take - it doesn’t have to be your take. That’s an example of priority management.

 

First, you’ve got to play a game worth winning.

It’s been said that one question to establish focus is, ask yourself:

Are you hunting antelope or field mice?

This… idea is simple (but supremely powerful):

A lion is capable of hunting field mice, but the prize wouldn’t be sufficient reward for the energy required to do so. 

Instead, the lion must focus on the antelope, which does require considerable energy to hunt, but provide a sufficient reward.

In whatever you are pursuing, are you hunting antelope or field mice? Are you focusing on the big, weighty, important tasks that will provide sufficient reward for your energy? 

Or are you burning calories chasing the tiny wins that won't move the needle?

Ask yourself this question from time and time and use your answer to reset as necessary.

Always hunt antelope!

When it comes to priority management…

 

… you’ve got to make time for yourself and create better “nows” for yourself beyond the mandatory loads that you’re already encumbered with. 

 

Because you’ll still have meal planning, grocery shopping, doctor’s appointments, housekeeping, scheduling, meeting, driving…

 

There’s not much leftover discretionary time left over to make you the you that you need to be - whether you’re trying to be the best equestrian rider that you can be because you connect with horses…

 

…you’re trying to be the greatest PARENT ever, cleaning up a beloved local creek, coaching your kid’s sports team… or maybe you’ll move heaven & earth to write that book that you just KNOW that you have inside of you. Get it out there!

 

But instead, people rationalize away their low quality of life.

 

If you’re working for the weekend, examine your M-F. You’re not living in the “now”.


If you call Wednesday “hump day”, you’re not living in the now. 

 

The good guys are BRAVE enough to risk investment, commitment, marriage, being vulnerable to family members, and all those things that make the non-doers and bad guys envious. Be brave enough to study and then risk boldly.

 

This is sad. You’ve probably heard of stats like this before - a Pew survey from last year found that 46% of US workers who receive paid time off from their employer take less time than they’re offered. Almost half!

 

People rationalize away their low quality of life - actually defending living a small, scared, too-safe life.

 

If you need a push to fire up Google Flights, consider that you will be happier because of it. 

That’s what the science says: researchers from the Netherlands found that the biggest boost in happiness around vacations came from the simple act of planning one. Then you get to anticipate it.

How important is it to build a residual income rather than work more hours? Is working more and working late the answer?

 

Understand… that twenty years from now, the only people who’ll remember if you worked late are your kids.

 

Instead, become a time billionaire. Let’s lean into this and look at what some others say.

 

Graham Duncan proposed the concept of the Time Billionaire. If you’ve got a billion seconds worth of wealth, that’s 31 years. He said that:

 

"A million seconds is 11 days. A billion seconds is 31 YEARS… I feel like in our culture, we’re almost obsessed, as a culture, with money. 

And we deify dollar billionaires in a way...And I was thinking of time billionaires that when I see, sometimes, 20-year-olds—the thought I had was they probably have two billion seconds left. 

But they aren’t relating to themselves as time billionaires." 

That’s what Graham Duncan said.

The central point here… is that TIME is our most precious asset.

No one ever posts pictures of napping on the sofa on social media. But if you’re a time billionaire - you might consider that an ostentatious display of time wealth. Ha!

When you're young, you are RICH with time. At age 20, you probably have about two billion seconds left (assuming you live to 80). By 50, just one billion seconds remain.

But as Graham Duncan pointed out, we don't relate to ourselves as the "Time Billionaires" that we really are. Most of us fail to realize the value of this asset until it is… gone.

In his passage called On the Shortness of Life, the stoic philosopher, Seneca, says, "We are not given a short life but we make it short, and we are not ill-supplied but wasteful of it." That’s Seneca.

To me, being a “Time Billionaire” isn’t necessarily about having the actual time, but about the awareness of the precious nature of the time you do have. 

It’s about embracing the shortness of life and finding joy in ordinary daily moments of beauty.

Let me introduce the “Surfer Mentality”. Yeah, the surfer mentality. When a surfer gets up on a wave, they enjoy the present moment, even though they know with certainty that the wave will eventually end. 

They fully enjoy THIS wave, with the wisdom and awareness that there are always more waves coming.

There are five ways that you can apply this “Surfer Mentality” and have this awareness in your life: (1) enjoy your next wave and embrace the present moment, (2) be strategic about your positioning in between waves, (3) PASS on more waves rather than jumping at the first one that comes your way, (4) always get in the water and stop sitting on the shore, and (5) roll with the punches that life deals you.

That’s the “Surfer Mentality”

Do not become an ostrich. An ostrich will bury its head in the sand to avoid danger. A lot of humans behave the same way when they encounter new information that challenges their existing beliefs or views. 

 

An ostrich cares more about being right than finding the truth. Do not become an ostrich, embrace new information that forces you to change your mind. That, right there, is growth.

 

A great, actionable way for you to GROW with the time you’ve created and the priorities that you’ve outlined is to Do something new that scares you. This is EXACTLY what you did as a kid but that you forgot how to do. 

 

For example, when you were age 11, you swam in water over your head for the first time. It made you rise up, grow, and gain confidence. I can’t tell you what grows inside you psychologically, but…

 

We’re operating 200,000 year-old mental software. That’s when the modern human brain came into existence. 

 

Our primordial brains are evolutionarily wired to see problems - to detect threats like lions & tigers - and our body still responds to those threats like they are lions.

 

And today, we don’t have to look very hard to find those problems. Just turn on the news or scroll social media and there they are.

 

And in this environment, it can be easy to let ourselves be yanked around by our circumstances.

 

When it comes to OTHERS - peers, family, and friends along your life journey…

 

You have to be strict with yourself but tolerant of others. 

 

That’s what the stoic Marcus Aurelius wrote about in his meditations. He has these exacting high standards. 

 

Most people don’t have the self-discipline that you do… and it’s called SELF-discipline for a reason. 

 

It’s not a thing that you get to project onto other people. You don’t get to go around insisting that other people follow YOUR standards and your code. 

 

You have to be encouraging and forgiving of other people because they don’t have the gift that you have. They don’t own the drive that you have. There’s even a saying in ancient Rome. 

 

“We can’t all be Catos.” If you remember from history, Cato was the influential leader that championed Roman virtues during THEIR empire.

 

We have to be tolerant, and accepting and encouraging of other people. If this realization is still frustrating to you…

 

Another way that you can think of this, is that others never signed up to the code and standards that you have.” 

 

Money is a tool for freedom. The best reason to accumulate wealth is to buy yourself freedom from anything you don’t want to do, and the freedom to do the things you do want to do. Money is not an end in itself. If you sit on it and never use it, you’ve wasted your life. 

 

Money CAN absolutely buy happiness. But only so long as you spend it on upgrading and expanding the things that make you happy or in buying time, instead of using it to play status games or on fleeting experiences. 

 

Increase the difficulty. If you’re listening to this, then your life is (probably) already on easy mode compared to the global and historical standard. You need to strategically introduce some challenges to keep yourself motivated. Don’t ruin yourself, but don’t let yourself get too complacent, either. 

 

Investing involves risk. You’re going to lose sometimes. The good news is that you don’t have to make money back in the same PLACE where you lost it. 

 

If something in your business or life is losing money, you don’t have to plug the hole right there at that spot. Often it’s easier to make the money back elsewhere. 

 

It’s never the right time. Any time you catch yourself saying “oh it’ll be a better time later,” you’re probably just scared. Or unclear on what to do. There is never a right time for the big things in life: having kids, changing jobs, breaking up, getting engaged, or buying the property. 

 

  1. Err on the side of too early over too late. Related to that point, since there’s never a “perfect time,” it’s almost always better to do things “too early.” Your conception that it’s too early is just your fear, and once you dive in you’ll figure it out. Old people tend to regret the things they didn’t do, or didn’t do earlier. Not the things they did.

Bad things happen fast, and good things happen slowly. This is one reason why bad news seems more newsworthy - but it’s not actually more important.

It’s hard-wired within you that money is a scarce resource. 

Don’t be afraid to commit. You’ve got to let go of fear about tomorrow and just get on with it. 

 

Uncertainty is a PERPETUAL condition - it’s existed in your entire past, and will in your entire future. That’s why you feel uncertainty in the present too. Uncertainty only disappears when you die.

 

We all want to know the future. But the truth is, it’s easier to make decisions within your certainty of NOW rather than postpone & speculate about your perpetually uncertain future.

 

“Life is meant to be lived, not postponed.” Don't get so caught up trying to make a living that you forget to live a life. That's not a life well-lived.

 

Regretting past decisions is an utter waste of energy. Does the past exist now separate from your own thoughts? Nope… it doesn’t even exist. 

 

Coming up - you’ll hear ANOTHER voice with a more COSMIC perspective about life and the power of “now” - it includes some sound effects to anticipate. 

Then I’ll come back in for today’s conclusion. I’m Keith Weinhold. It’s Episode 500 of Get Rich Education. 

 

LISTEN: Neil Degrasse Tyson: Life and Death - A Cosmic Perspective

 

That’s Neil DeGrasse Tyson on the significance of life, death, and the power of “now”.

 

Horace Mann said, "Be ashamed to die until you have won some victory for humanity."

 

Life feels ordinary. But in fact, it’s incredible that you overcame tremendous odds to have your… one… precious life.

 

In order to be born, you needed:

  • 2 parents

  • 4 grandparents

  • 8 great-grandparents

  • 16 second great-grandparents

  • You needed 32 third great-grandparents

  • 64 fourth great-grandparents

  • 128 fifth great-grandparents

  • 256 sixth great-grandparents

  • To be born, you needed 512 seventh great-grandparents

  • 1,024 eighth great-grandparents and

  • 2,048 ninth great-grandparents

For you to be born today from 12 previous generations, you needed a total sum of 4,094 ancestors over the last 400 years.

Think about what they overcame… to produce you – How many struggles did they have? How many battles? How many difficulties? How much sadness did THEY have? 

How much happiness? How many love stories created you? How many expressions of hope for the future? – did your ancestors have to undergo for you to exist in this present moment…

The past is history, the future is a mystery, and this moment is a gift. That’s why they call this gift, “the present”.

 

Spend your time where time disappears. Your work should feel like play… your passions should feel like flow… with people that make hours feel like minutes. 

 

The more present you are, the quicker the present goes. That’s the paradox. 

 

A full life goes fast. But in the end, time that flies… is time well spent. And a life that flies by… is a life well spent. 

 

At least here on Earth, all you’ve got is one life and one shot.

 

You shouldn’t fear death. You should fear a life where you could have accomplished more that fulfills your potential and aligns with your soul.

 

You’re here today and gone tomorrow. You’ve got NOW to go leave your dent in the universe.

 

There’s no time to wait. You now have less time remaining in your life than when you started listening to me today.

 

All that you ever have is now - always. Don’t Quit Your Daydream!

Direct download: GREepisode500_b.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 4:00am EDT

Other people study one real estate group’s enormous success. Go behind the scenes to learn how they pulled off “The Memphis Miracle”.

Terry Kerr and Liz Brody from terrific turnkey property provider, Mid South Home Buyers of Memphis, TN, are back on the show. 

Here’s what makes them different: junk in the backyard rather than a dumpster, property addresses viewable on their website, no tenant application fees, no maintenance upcharges, no materials upcharges, no earnest money, investor cancellation allowed, specific kitchen & bath renovation, and tenants bring their own appliances.

Memphis has such a robust renter culture that tenants bring their own appliances.

Hundreds of GRE followers have purchased income property from Mid South Home Buyers.

They’re such a popular provider that there’s an investor waitlist. For GRE followers, you can reserve up to two financed properties or three all-cash properties all at once.

They offer in-person tours to see the properties. Start at MidSouthHomeBuyers.com

Resources mentioned:

Mid South Home Buyers' Website:

www.MidSouthHomeBuyers.com

Liz Brody’s e-mail:

liz@midsouthhomebuyers.com

For access to properties or free help with a

GRE Investment Coach, start here:

GREmarketplace.com

Get mortgage loans for investment property:

RidgeLendingGroup.com or call 855-74-RIDGE 

or e-mail: info@RidgeLendingGroup.com

Invest with Freedom Family Investments. 

You get paid first: Text FAMILY to 66866

For advertising inquiries, visit:

GetRichEducation.com/ad

Will you please leave a review for the show? I’d be grateful. Search “how to leave an Apple Podcasts review” 

Top Properties & Providers:

GREmarketplace.com

GRE Free Investment Coaching:

GREmarketplace.com/Coach

Best Financial Education:

GetRichEducation.com

Get our wealth-building newsletter free—

text ‘GRE’ to 66866

Our YouTube Channel:

www.youtube.com/c/GetRichEducation

Follow us on Instagram:

@getricheducation

Keith’s personal Instagram:

@keithweinhold

 

Complete episode transcript:

 

Speaker Weinhold** ((00:00:00)) - - Welcome to GRE! I'm your host, Keith Weinhold. Today we're going to visit one of my favorite real estate markets. We'll talk with an operator there that is so successful and different that other companies actually study them. And our listeners have loved them for almost ten years now. Today on get Rich education.

 

Speaker Syslo** ((00:00:23)) - - Since 2014, the powerful Get Rich Education podcast has created more passive income for people than nearly any other show in the world. This show teaches you how to earn strong returns from passive real estate, investing in the best markets without losing your time being a flipper or landlord. Show host Keith Wine, who writes for both Forbes and Rich Dad Advisors and delivers a new show every week. Since 2014, there's been millions of listeners downloads and 188 world nations. He has A-list show guests include top selling personal finance author Robert Kiyosaki. Get Rich education can be heard on every podcast platform. Plus it has its own dedicated Apple and Android listener. Phone apps build wealth on the go with the get Rich education podcast.

 

Speaker Syslo** ((00:01:01)) - - Sign up now for the get Rich education podcast or visit get Rich education.com.

 

Speaker Coates** ((00:01:08)) - - You're listening to the show that has created more financial freedom than nearly any show in the world. This is get rich education.

 

Speaker Weinhold** ((00:01:24)) - - Welcome to GRE! From Sandy Creek, New York to Walnut Creek, California, and across 188 nations worldwide. I'm Keith Weinhold and this is get rich education. Some call Memphis, Tennessee the best place in the entire United States for income producing homes. And in past shows, we talked about all of those reasons on why that's true the economic, the geographic and the cultural. So all that I will add to that is, did trends like the era of Covid and this nascent sea of I did that change the advantageous Memphis economics over these past? So 3 to 5 years? No, not really, because this distribution hub market, air barge, rail and truck is still really the center of the most powerful nation on Earth when it comes to distribution. If you're moving a package from New York to LA, you're going through Memphis.

 

Speaker Weinhold** ((00:02:24)) - - The reason that really matters is that those distribution jobs are not transient. It's tough to outsource that activity to Thailand. Lots of things make Memphis well known Memphis barbecue, Beale Street, Graceland Elvis the birthplace of both rock n roll music and blues music. The Mississippi River, the Fedex hub. What we're doing today is going deep inside an enormously successful real estate group there in Memphis. They provide properties to investors. This is going to get rather interesting, because there are just so many things that make them different things they do that no one else that I know of does in the industry. In fact, during our discussion, if you miss any of these differentiators, all summarize them for you at the end. Today, other companies study these people. For example, their properties are totally viewable by the public. You can easily see them physical address, proforma and everything right there on their website. It's just one of a number of things that makes you say, gosh, why don't more people do things the same way that these people do? Now? When I visited Memphis with today's guests, we looked at properties in all different construction stages.

 

Speaker Weinhold** ((00:03:48)) - - At one, there was a giant pile of junk all over the backyard, and that is exactly according to their plan because we were touring a property mid rehab and they don't put a dumpster out on the street like everyone else does. Why is that? Because renting a dumpster is costly and it makes the neighborhood look blighted for a while. They just put all the refuse in the backyard and come by and have a junk collection day for their properties later. And then, oppositely, I also saw other beautifully finished homes where the real hardwood floors shined so much that I wondered when I could move in myself. Now, when you add a property to your real estate portfolio, you can do things like get a property inspection and check out that property today, and maybe even learn about your tenant before you buy a property. But one thing that you don't know is what kind of tenant could this property attract in five years? Well, in Memphis, as you'll see, it is a complete renter culture there. In fact, with the provider that we're about to talk with today, when I visited Memphis and this was quite a while ago, I was driving around with them and they were showing me their sample properties, and I asked them about appreciation in the areas where they buy.

 

Speaker Weinhold** ((00:05:12)) - - I asked what about appreciation? And they began talking about rents. They thought that I meant rent appreciation. No, that's not the way that I talk. Appreciation means capital price to me. But that fact right there is just indicative of the renter culture that they have there. Let's learn more about it and take a trip to Memphis. Today. It's like the return of two longtime terrific friends. It's Terry Kerr and Liz Brody from Midsouth homebuyers in Memphis. Welcome in.

 

Speaker Brody** ((00:05:50)) - - Hi, Keith.

 

Speaker Weinhold** ((00:05:51)) - - Hey, Keith. Thanks so much for having us again.

 

Speaker Brody** ((00:05:53)) - - Always love to be here.

 

Speaker Weinhold** ((00:05:55)) - - Oh, yeah. Now, I've never heard sticks, bricks and mortar talk, but if they could, they would probably sound like you two. And that's because you really are the figurative voice of properties that so many of our followers, probably hundreds, now, have bought over the years. So I just think it's reassuring for us to hear your voice here on great every couple years. And, Terry, this really all began with you 22 years ago.

 

Speaker Weinhold** ((00:06:20)) - - You found that you simply enjoyed fixing up houses. Then you found that others like your ability to renovate property for them, and then you began doing it at scale, placing tenants, starting your own warehouse, which I was inside when it was new. You brought in property management and more. And now that you lead a team that's done thousands of rehab properties and you've even added new build, we'll get to that later. You're still Memphis based. But six years ago you branched out to little Rock, Arkansas, two hours to the west. But with all that, Terry, back from the start, when you began rehabbing Memphis houses, at what point did you learn the fact that, oh, now you just happened to be from an Investor Advantage City, where you get high rents in proportion to a low purchase price? Like, when did that epiphany occur? I tell you what, I'm the luckiest guy I know.

 

Speaker Kerr** ((00:07:12)) - - I was born in the right city at the right time, and was able to cultivate an incredible team of pros to help me run this business.

 

Speaker Kerr** ((00:07:22)) - - Obviously, Liz has been here for 15 years running and gunning with me, but I would say when I realized that we were super fortunate to be in Memphis, Tennessee with all the awesomeness that it provides for cash flow, it was probably right in the middle of the credit crisis when it became real obvious that even though there was, you know, blood in the street, if you will, there was a ton of opportunity. And it came from a buddy of mine who had about ten houses that he had fixed up himself and was managing, and he started buying from us. And I asked him why, and he said, because as the leverage of time, I can buy them from you already fixed up for the same price that I will have in it, if not more, when I'm spending my own time. And that's when really and truly, the idea became crystal clear that passing bargains on to bargain hunters was where we were going to focus.

 

Speaker Weinhold** ((00:08:20)) - - You surely found your niche, and in being from Memphis and finding that right niche and finding the right properties, most people find in that sense that buying super cheap homes looks attractive on the surface to go fix up, but it often doesn't work because you're in blighted neighborhoods.

 

Speaker Weinhold** ((00:08:40)) - - And then in the opposite end, you don't want to go to high end because the rents really aren't that good for the higher purchase price. And both Terry and Liz, you can feel free to chime in on this, but let's talk about the formation then of your go zone versus your no go zone. So we're really talking about sweet spot discovery here.

 

Speaker Brody** ((00:09:01)) - - I always kind of love your origin story a little bit. As far as maybe buying a little bit too low. Right. feeling the pain. Yep. Having to protect the materials you're putting in the renovation. Overcorrecting swinging up to the pretty stuff. That kind of sounds nice at the cocktail party, but shelling out a bunch of money for very little return. It has never made sense. I have a lot that I prefer about working class renters over a class renters, if you will, for so many reasons. They stay longer. It costs money to move a class. Renters are more litigious. They're going to go be homebuyers. It's a lot.

 

Speaker Brody** ((00:09:36)) - - If you're paying tip top rent, you're going to call on a work order because your door handle is loose. And at the end of the day, the lower your rent is, the more people can afford your property. You want to talk about being recession proof. Being in that working class area really, really helps. So there's a lot to it.

 

Speaker Kerr** ((00:09:54)) - - There is. And, as of this morning, our, occupancy rate was 99.17. It'll dip down into the mid 90 eights around the holidays. Liz, you hit the nail on the head. I mean, where you want to operate in the zone where you can have the highest occupancy rate. And, although a class properties that may look nice, but folks don't stay long because they're more transient, they end up buying a home for themselves. So in the beginning, we did things the wrong way a lot. And we, you know, scraped our toes and scuffed our knees. And we're just fortunate that we were able to figure it out and then work it to scale.

 

Speaker Brody** ((00:10:28)) - - And another thing I think that is really neat and powerful about our roots as a company that I always love is so, so Terry, realizing that he wanted to, you know, pass on bargains to bargain hunters, he'd been buying and creating these homes. For himself. You were building your own rental property portfolio, as people do, but there was a doctor that we had sold a number of houses to, but Taylor was not managing them, and they were out at dinner and they were comparing notes, and Terry's properties were outperforming the doctors. And they were identical. They were identical rehabs, identical everything. And the difference was Terry's management doctor said, I'm not going to buy any more houses from you unless you will manage my properties too. And you'd known the day was coming. He'd been thinking about it anyway. But we had a property management company. It just managed Terry's properties and so much about how we manage properties. And that really is feeding into that 99% occupancy rate came because Terry designed his property management company as an owner.

 

Speaker Brody** ((00:11:30)) - - One thing we've talked on about here before is how we don't charge application fees to renters. That's because when Terry was standing in the front yard of a house that he had spent his life savings, his nights and weekends renovating, he didn't care about $50 an adult head from an application fee. He wanted to get the best human being possible in his home. And to this day, we are the only property management company I know of coast to coast. That is a no application fee at all times. Company not up charging maintenance, not charging materials. There's so much that is unique about how our property management company operates, because if Terry didn't say, I'm going to manage your properties differently than I manage my own, I just think that's a really important foundational forming sort of a factor for how we manage.

 

Speaker Weinhold** ((00:12:17)) - - You do so many things differently there that you're really interesting to study, and your primary business is renovating homes and selling them to investors like me and our followers that want to hold them with a tenant in it for the long term production of income and leverage and all of that.

 

Speaker Weinhold** ((00:12:35)) - - The neighborhood. It wouldn't matter to you as much, probably, if you're just doing in and out fix in flips where you don't have any future ongoing relationship with that buyer of your rehabbed property. Therefore, in that case, you would have less neighborhood concern. But now, of course, the neighborhood, it really matters to you because you are managing what you sell.

 

Speaker Kerr** ((00:12:58)) - - Absolutely. And that's why not only is it the neighborhood that matters in managing what we sell, but it's also why we like to buy the houses that are in the worst condition. Because the worst condition of property is when you buy it, the more things you can replace, right? And so we're proud of the fact that we're taking the ugliest house on a street that was owned by a local investor who maybe bought it 30 or 40 years ago, managed it, his or herself, retired, and is then at a point in their life where they want to sell it. Typically there's tons of deferred maintenance, and we're proud to be able to buy those houses and pay a little more than the market, because we have honed our skills at taking these houses that are in super bad shape and bringing them all the way up to the best house on the street.

 

Speaker Brody** ((00:13:45)) - - And Keith, you hit the nail on the head. We're not just walking away. Our acquisitions team actually passes on about 25 houses. For every one that we put an offer in. You can actually look at our inventory on our website. And so when you go to the available property section of Midsouth homebuyers, those 50 or 60 houses you're seeing, each one jumped through 50 or 60 hoops to become a Mid-South homebuyers house. One thing I always tell folks is, as you know, Keith, we have a short waitlist for our properties, but my acquisitions team is not out there thinking about me and my waitlist. It is actually a mandate from Terry that we do not pass on a property to an investor that he would not probably own in his own portfolio, and we have no one wants to manage a problem property. Nobody wants to manage a property in a neighborhood that can attract a quality renter. If you get approved with our property management company, that means you would be approved anywhere in town within the limits of your income.

 

Speaker Brody** ((00:14:43)) - - That's the way of stating, essentially, that our renters have choices and options about where they live. People with choices and options don't put their families in unsafe neighborhoods, let alone environmental factors. Being close to a corner store that gets too much foot traffic, highway noise, just little things like that. And we're built on repeat and referred business. And frankly, our profit margins are really slim per house. So there's just no reason to buy a house that is less than and risk a repeat buyer risk or problem, something that's harder to manage.

 

Speaker Weinhold** ((00:15:18)) - - Yeah. So we're talking often about rehabbed single family homes here. Your price points seem to be between 95 and 160 K for that. And sometimes you have duplexes and other more expensive properties. And these are good houses in pride of ownership neighborhoods that I have been inside with each of you. So that's what we're talking about here. But you. Another differentiator. There is something that makes you guys different, and that's the fact that you do publicly put your physical addresses out there for anyone just to see easily on your website.

 

Speaker Weinhold** ((00:15:50)) - - That's something that a lot of companies don't do. Can you tell us why that is? Why do you make this so publicly available and that few others do?

 

Speaker Kerr** ((00:15:59)) - - So our philosophy has just been we want to be the easy folks to work with. Whether it's our investor partners are bankers, contractors, subcontractors, internal employees, closing attorneys, whatever it is. And and so we also wanted to make it easy for folks to learn about how to shop for a turnkey seller in any market, whether it's us or anywhere in the US. And we want to make it easy for folks to go in and check out our properties, see what we have under contract to sell and use those properties, kind of as a litmus test to kind of get used to what's going to be coming down the pipe for them if they hop on the wait list. So we don't want to make our potential investor partners jump through hoops so we can grab their email address and give them the hard sell. We pride ourselves on being able to communicate what a turnkey seller can do to provide value and operate from an educational standpoint.

 

Speaker Kerr** ((00:16:54)) - - And and in the same vein, it's the same reason, like Liz was mentioning, that although we do all the same background checks, credit checks, employment verification, we don't charge our residents for that. And it's the same way, like when we sell houses, we do not require earnest money. So someone puts a house under contract with us, we've never required any earnest money and someone can cancel for any time for any reason. Because if life happens to someone during the contract process, we are not going to hold their feet to the fire. And one of the other little example of us really working hard to be easy to work with is property management. Most property management companies, you sign a contract and you're locked in for this period of time. If something happens to someone for some reason and they like, have to put their parents into a nursing home or their kid doesn't gets into a college, it's really expensive and they need to sell or whatever it is. Like there's no oh, you're locked into a contract.

 

Speaker Kerr** ((00:17:50)) - - So we're just looking to be easy to work with and operate from an educational standpoint.

 

Speaker Brody** ((00:17:58)) - - I don't want you to be popping champagne at the closing table. Or confetti if you don't drink. If the wind change directions for any reason, if you want to take it to Vegas, we understand one of the fun things about our business model is the house's cash flow for us as well. They really do make money and so we're able to approach it from that. And personally, as I educate folks about us, you know, Mid-South is one of the most formulaic businesses that especially in real estate, where there's such a wide variety of things that I have ever encountered, almost going back to acquisitions and how picky we are on the houses and how they have to jump through so many hoops. One thing I like to tell investors, as many people know, I buy directly from the company. I pay full price. There's no employee discount on a house. I pay 10% management until I got to a portfolio size and so on.

 

Speaker Brody** ((00:18:47)) - - And what I tell folks is when I get my down payment saved up, I'm ready to buy my next Mid-South house. Keith, I've found that house in 3 to 4 weeks because there's nothing to hold out for. There's nothing to wait and see. There's not that one special deal. And so going back to the houses being all on the website. So there's kind of a two pronged thing there. So our leasing team, we often take a deposit from a renter before we're even done with the rehab. Just like we get a lot of investor referrals, we get a lot of renter referrals. We are the only turnkey that I'm aware of as an example, that does all new kitchen cabinets every single time. Nothing wrong with painted cabinets. I've lived in houses with painted cabinets, but we all know kitchens and baths rent houses and they sell houses. And that's like my leasing team is showing these renters the all new tile shower surround, the all new kitchen. I am able to show investors. Since we do have we're grateful to have more investors and houses, and we do have kind of that short, maybe 90 day wait time before they can get houses.

 

Speaker Brody** ((00:19:50)) - - I say jump on our website, have a pretend shopping trip, pretend every one of those houses is available today and you're going to write a check today. And the 4 or 5 that you kind of start to identify as ticking your boxes if you're like in 320 Maple Street today, I am going to have 490 Maple Street for you. Same zip code, same cash flow, same price to rent relationship. And that means it makes sense for you to join our short wait list because you're going to see that same thing. And so it's very helpful. And I think most other people's approach and there's nothing wrong with this, but you're going to have our friendly competition. There might be a five year old water heater and a 20 year old roof, and this house has a new water heater, but an even older roof. And the price and the relationships are kind of all over the map. And they'll say, well, it's because of area and this and that. And again, back to me being able to pick out my Mid-South house within about three weeks of having decided I'm going to do it.

 

Speaker Brody** ((00:20:46)) - - And I know this isn't very scientific. I go on like trying to curb appeal within my price range, because Mid-South has hammered out every other floor and they get so interchangeable. And so the web that having all of our properties, even though they're under contract to investors at the top of the wait list available where everyone can come and see that is so helpful.

 

Speaker Weinhold** ((00:21:06)) - - Yeah, because of course it's about making the right upgrades when it's going to be a rental property. Words like opulence and extravagance really don't make a lot of sense here. I mean, adding a wine cellar with mahogany finishes and marble floors to might boost the price. 40 K and not only would you over improve the neighborhood, but your target tenant, they might only pay $25 more per month for that. So it's about making those right upgrades like you touched on.

 

Speaker Brody** ((00:21:34)) - - I always say, every dollar we spend is either to defer maintenance or to attract another dollar in rent. And if it doesn't check those two boxes, it doesn't make sense. So an example would be if you were going to sell something retail to an owner occupant, maybe an eight foot wooden cedar privacy fence might make sense for a rental property over a chain link.

 

Speaker Brody** ((00:21:56)) - - It does not get you $1 and you're that was going to, you know, rot and so on. And so that's our approach on everything. But there is money you can spend that does attract another dollar in rent. And that's when we spend it.

 

Speaker Weinhold** ((00:22:08)) - - Now there's something really interesting going on in you guys. Is geography both in Memphis and out in little Rock. When we talk about those physical amenities inside a property, and that is with appliances rental demand in Memphis, and little Rock is so high that tenants bring their own appliances. Tell us about that.

 

Speaker Brody** ((00:22:27)) - - Actually, little Rock is more like the rest of the country. It's one of the things that we I kind of use that website for. So it's one of the few differences you'll see between our houses is if you're looking at the kitchens and the Memphis houses, there's no appliances. If you're looking at the kitchens in our new construction properties, because it's at a rent point or that kicks in in our little Rock properties, you're going to see brand new black or stainless steel GE whirlpool appliances in there, but about 80% of our inventory is going to be renovated properly.

 

Speaker Brody** ((00:22:57)) - - In Memphis, where you will not see those appliances and is Terry knows I came to him 15 years ago from a different market and about ten years in property management, and he casually and calmly told me to remind the renters to bring their own appliances. I had come in from the leasing side and I thought, I'm working for a lunatic. I am about to get laughed off the phone. Oh my gosh, am I even? I'd been there a week. I was like, oh man, what are we doing? And literally the first Mrs. Smith, if you will, that I spoke to on the phone, I kind of softly whispered with trepidation for the backlash, don't forget to bring your appliances. And she was like, oh yeah, of course. And she actually paused and said, they're not in there, right? There's nothing in there because she owned her own appliances. Our average renter is coming to us from another single family home. One of our many rules is you have to pay rent yesterday.

 

Speaker Brody** ((00:23:53)) - - We want a lot of folks will take two years. Landlord history, and it's okay if you've lived with your mom for a year. There's a lot of ways that our criteria is just a little bit more stringent. Our typical renter is coming to us from another single family home. They have a lawnmower. They own their stove, they own their fridge, then they own their washer dryer. And it is just a subtle perk. You don't repair them. You don't replace them.

 

Speaker Weinhold** ((00:24:14)) - - Yeah. That's interesting. I'm a geographer. I often think about and love maps. Maybe I need to do some research and make a range map of where tenants travel with appliances. Does that happen up in Missouri or out in Oklahoma? Or just where do the limits of that map and you're listening to it versus occasion? We're talking with the voices of Mid-South homebuyers Terry Kerr and Liz Brody. When we come back, I'm your host, Keith Windle. Role under the specific expert with income property, you need Ridge Lending Group and MLS for 256 injury history from beginners to veterans.

 

Speaker Weinhold** ((00:24:53)) - - They provided our listeners with more mortgages than anyone. It's where I get my own loans for single family rentals up to four Plex's. Start your pre-qualification and chat with President Charlie Ridge personally. They'll even customize a plan tailored to you for growing your portfolio. Start at Ridge Lending group.com Ridge lending group.com. You know, I'll just tell you, for the most passive part of my real estate investing, personally, I put my own dollars with Freedom Family Investments because their funds pay me a stream of regular cash flow in returns, or better than a bank savings account, up to 12%. Their minimums are as low as 25 K. You don't even need to be accredited for some of them. It's all backed by real estate and that kind of love. How the tax benefit of doing this can offset capital gains and your W-2 jobs income. And they've always given me exactly their stated return paid on time. So it's steady income, no surprises while I'm sleeping or just doing the things I love. For a little insider tip, I've invested in their power fund to get going on that text family to 66866.

 

Speaker Weinhold** ((00:26:11)) - - Oh, and this isn't a solicitation. If you want to invest where I do, just go ahead and text family to six, 686, six.

 

Speaker 6** ((00:26:23)) - - This is Rick Schrager, housing market intelligence analyst. Listen to get rich education with Keith wine old and don't quit your daydream. He.

 

Speaker Weinhold** ((00:26:42)) - - Welcome back to get Rich. We're talking with Terry Currie and Liz Brodie of Midsouth Homebuyers based in Memphis, Tennessee, because they do so much volume and through their operational efficiencies like they've been describing, you can see why it's attractive to both tenants and investors. If a tenant can pay the same rent or 3% less rent and get a 12% better property, that's why they have such high occupancy. And although your bread and butter, sort of where you started out as doing renovated properties in Memphis, you've joined in and really help give the nation what they need. And that is new build property to help deal with the national housing shortage. So can you tell us more about what you're doing with New Build?

 

Speaker Kerr** ((00:27:23)) - - We heard from our investors for a long time, and we found out very quickly that residents also like the new construction director for rental and typical fashion, you know, we stuck our toe in, we made sure our foundation was built and we were ready to handle it.

 

Speaker Kerr** ((00:27:37)) - - And we slowly but surely started doing new construction in little Rock with just small developments, 130 unit development, another 30 unit development with lots of scattered lot. And now in Memphis we're doing the same thing. And we have got what Liz 1215 going right now. new construction going in Memphis. And we are definitely continuing with our bread and butter rehabs, but we're really happy to be able to offer new construction director rental properties that are built specifically for rental with ten year transferable slab warranties, PEX plumbing, hip roofs, the whole nine yards just to make them just darn near maintenance free on the exterior. And they are just flying off the shelf with renters and investors alike.

 

Speaker Brody** ((00:28:26)) - - It's been just fantastic. You can see them on our website. They have a special new construction label. And the we have a really cool IRR calculation on the website. And we have turned up the appreciation ratio for the new construction. It's the only way any house is calculated any differently than any other house. And I think there's just a really neat value to that in that when that investor is going to go sell that house for a profit in 15, 20 years, though, plenty of folks are leaving them to their kids, and this applies as well.

 

Speaker Brody** ((00:28:58)) - - You're selling a 15 year old house. That's kind of cool. It's just been really neat and one of the best things. Keith, I know you know, that our wait times had gotten and we are grateful because we were doing over 400 houses a year. But at one point our wait times were over a year.

 

Speaker Weinhold** ((00:29:13)) - - We're talking about your investor.

 

Speaker Brody** ((00:29:14)) - - Waitlist investor wait time. Thank you. Yes, the amount of time if someone called me and wanted a house today that they would have to wait as I got houses to everyone ahead of them in line. We now have a faucet and it's the new construction faucet and we can turn it on. And that additional, I believe that we provide an extra 70 houses in the last 12 months from new construction has our wait times down to 90 days or so for a financed investor, and about 45 on a cash buyer side, 45 days. And so we're just thrilled we're able to work with folks doing 1030 ones in a way we never have before. And it's just great to be able to kind of meet some of that demand.

 

Speaker Weinhold** ((00:29:57)) - - And you really get in there and work closely with investors that have 1031 exchange timelines to meet, and you can more easily do that now with that increased faucet flow with your new build.

 

Speaker Brody** ((00:30:08)) - - Absolutely, I love it. And so because for so many years, and we've always been so grateful for the demand, but I got calls. I'm selling $1 million property in California, I'm selling a $2 million property in New York. And I was so much fun to disperse with you. And while it is still just one at a time for finance buyers, so I've been doing case by case exceptions for that and for get Rich education listeners. I want to make that as just a permanent exception, that they can do two financed properties at a time. Right. And then cash folks can do three at a time. But then we are now able to have a 1031 program where if you reach out to me and we're going to discuss the date of the sale of your subject property, what your needs are. That way I can make sure my wait times that I'm quoting to other investors are accurate.

 

Speaker Brody** ((00:30:51)) - - We're going to make sure you're meeting your 45 day timeline. As you might know, you can do you could identify actually before the subject property is sold, which I find some people don't know, we're able to, even with all the demand for our properties, help people avoid those taxes and do the 1030 ones.

 

Speaker Weinhold** ((00:31:09)) - - The tax deferred exchange for people with all the accumulated equity in the Covid run up. And just real quickly, of course, this is going to change if you're listening to this five years or even one year into the future. But what are the interest rates on the buy downs that you're doing on the new build properties for the investor?

 

Speaker Brody** ((00:31:27)) - - So that's one of the coolest things. So and I really think Fannie and Freddie that they're doing this right. As you know, Keith, and as you talk about there is a housing shortage. Nobody loves higher interest rates. But they cooled the. Market, I think, in the way that they wanted to, but they're still encouraging new construction. And so we are able to do called a forward commitment, but we pre buy down the rate for the investor.

 

Speaker Brody** ((00:31:51)) - - And as people deep in real estate may know, the sellers can only contribute 2% of the purchase price to a buyers closing cost. So your average buyer can only buy their rate down X amount. What we're doing is buying it down ahead of time on these new construction properties, and you still have all the range to buy it down more on top of what we've done. So that really is a big difference. And so right now on our new construction properties, folks can get as low as 5.75.

 

Speaker Weinhold** ((00:32:19)) - - That's really attractive.

 

Speaker Brody** ((00:32:20)) - - Yeah, it's really great. You walk in the door at 6.3. I see folks out there running their numbers at 8%. And it's really fun to tell them, oh no, no no that past that. So yeah, it's been wonderful.

 

Speaker Weinhold** ((00:32:32)) - - That's really some of the best news. Well, the two of you have always done things differently. You've been really fairly innovative in a number of ways, in my perspective. In fact, when I visited your office back in 2015, I still remember when you had the electronic status board of your properties up there.

 

Speaker Weinhold** ((00:32:51)) - - This is at a time when most companies were using a whiteboard and a dry erase marker and all that. So you're always engineering in efficiencies to the things that you do in winding down here at. Tell us a little bit more, including the investor tours that you offer so often because you're so proud of what you've got there.

 

Speaker Kerr** ((00:33:10)) - - Liz rolls around. Any investor who wants to come visit with us once a month, we have a tour. We've got a sprinter van that we roll around. lately the sprinter van that holds 12 has not been doing it, so we've had to rent another van. But Liz tours folks around, she shows them our facility, introduces them to some of our team members, and then goes and shows them a before a during rehab and a finished rehab so they can see everything during the process and just really rolls out so folks can see a visual of exactly how we do and why we do it.

 

Speaker Brody** ((00:33:48)) - - Yeah, it's so much fun. So about 95% of our investors have never set foot in Memphis or Little Rock.

 

Speaker Brody** ((00:33:53)) - - If your goal is to do it from your living room, have no fear. We are set up for you to do everything from your living room, but it will push your confidence through the roof to come out. I can't tell you what a happy, chill vibe our office has. Terry happens to be an amazing guy to work for. We have a lot of long term employees. I've been with him 15 years. But you'll meet Nia. That's been with us for ten years. Matt, our property manager. He's been with us for 12. Nia is kind of the me on the other end of closing, even your renters actually hear a smiling voice within two rings. That's a leasing agent that's been with us for eight, nine years. You're going to get to meet those folks. You're going to get to see the warehouse. I'm no CPA, but for most people, that trip's going to be a tax write off. But we're also going to give you $500 towards your closing cost on your first house as a thank you for coming out, particularly Keith.

 

Speaker Brody** ((00:34:44)) - - I love it because so many of our investors are from high cost of living areas where you cannot get renovated house in a peaceful neighborhood for $150,000. And I just love, you know, the birds are chirping. There's no foot traffic. No, there's no it's just quiet because that whole neighborhood's at work and there's no trash and there's no graffiti. Not to mention letting folks bang on the cabinets and kick the the tires, so to speak. And so if people are listening to this, when our new website is up, there will be a full tour list for the rest of the year available online. If they're listening to this when it comes out, they can reach out to me for the next dates, but we'd love to sign them up.

 

Speaker Weinhold** ((00:35:25)) - - If you'd like, you can fly in on a Thursday. The tours are Fridays and I took a look the upcoming tours on May 17th, June 28th and July 12th, but you can see how often they're doing them there. Terry. Liz. Rarely, if ever, have I heard bricks and mortar have so much personality.

 

Speaker Weinhold** ((00:35:43)) - - Income was such a thing. It's amazing that this happened here. Tell us any last thoughts and then how our listeners can learn more about you.

 

Speaker Brody** ((00:35:51)) - - For last thoughts. I think what I want to tell people is that if you feel intimidated about investing, if you feel like there is jargon, if lending is confusing to you, please don't hesitate to reach out and jump on the phone with us. We have incredibly experienced investors that own hundreds of apartment buildings, but one of my favorite things is to just help a first time investor get their feet under them. I understand the nerves and the butterflies that can come with it. I know how hard people work to save up these down payments, and we are there for you for the questions, the granular questions, and it's okay if you're really new. I have helped folks in LA and New York that are renters, and this is actually their first. Purchase, because literally buying anything in their local market is 2 million bucks. And so if you have never bought a house before, please don't feel intimidated to email or to call because we've got you and you're going to plug in to man, I've been vetting the best lenders for 15 years, ID title companies, insurance, and the way that we keep our finger on the pulse of who's giving the best service, who's giving the best cost for even just the rest of the team that's going to get you closed.

 

Speaker Brody** ((00:37:07)) - - Is that and then for how to find us miss South homebuyers.com and I am Lisette. Lisette for anyone that wants to give us a shout that way. Quick side note there is a video on the home page of our website and that's true whether you're seeing the one that's out right now or the one we've got coming. But it is a video version of that tour. You can see our warehouse, you can see our offices. You're going to see houses in some different stages. We actually just one of our investors was like, you should put a GoPro helmet on your head for this tour. And that's about what we did. And so for those of you that may not be able to come right now, check out that video. As we mentioned, go look at the houses, go look at the kitchens. Go look at everything and let us know.

 

Speaker Weinhold** ((00:37:50)) - - Well, this has been amazing to hear a new piece of Terri's origin story. And then I think you, the listener, can feel the passion in the willingness to help in Liz's voice.

 

Speaker Weinhold** ((00:37:59)) - - It's exactly what she expertly does. Terri and Liz, it's so great having you back on the show.

 

Speaker Kerr** ((00:38:05)) - - Thanks so much, Keith.

 

Speaker Brody** ((00:38:06)) - - Thanks, Keith.

 

Speaker Weinhold** ((00:38:12)) - - Yeah. Such uniqueness. Their elucidation from Terry and Liz. Now, in real estate, you hear the term buyer's market and seller's market will. Memphis is a landlord's market when it comes to tenants traveling with appliances. In talking with Liz Sommer, it's because as this vibrant tenant and renter culture has evolved, landlords really haven't had to compete with each other. That's why that is getting a little anthropogenic here, Here are some of the attributes that make Mid-South different, perhaps even unique. There's no tenant application fee, so they get a greater renter pool. They don't mark up maintenance and materials. They put addresses of their properties on their website. Like we mentioned, they don't require investor earnest money. Investors can cancel for any reason, and tenants bring their own appliances. Those are some differentiators. And there are more. I mean, the tenant has a favorite Maytag dishwasher or whirlpool refrigerator.

 

Speaker Weinhold** ((00:39:21)) - - Well, a tenant might very well use that in more than one home during their lifetime. We didn't talk numbers much today, but again, you can see the properties on their website. You can come on in with your rate. Currently bought down to 5.75% on their new builds. And that's really kind of about what they will do for you. Now, the gray listener, it used to be that after you made it to the top of the investor wait list, you could buy one property, and then you'd have to go back on the bottom of their wait list in order to get your next one, but no longer for you, the GRE listener. You can reserve two finance properties at a time and three at a time. Cash. You can get started at Midsouth homebuyers.com. Until next week when I'll be back with episode 500. I'm your host, Keith Wines, a little bit. Don't quit your day. Drink.

 

Speaker 7** ((00:40:17)) - - Nothing on this show should be considered specific, personal or professional advice. Please consult an appropriate tax, legal, real estate, financial or business professional for individualized advice.

 

Speaker 7** ((00:40:27)) - - Opinions of guests are their own. Information is not guaranteed. All investment strategies have the potential for profit or loss. The host is operating on behalf of get Rich education LLC exclusively.

 

Speaker Weinhold** ((00:40:45)) - - The preceding program was brought to you by your home for wealth building. Get rich education.com.




Direct download: GREepisode499_.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 4:00am EDT

If properties are empty from population decline, they’ll lose value and rent. If this happens, then what’s the timeline?

Richard Vague, the PA Governor-appointed Secretary of Banking and Securities from 2020-2023, joins us. 

US and world birth rates keep declining.

As population declines, per capita GDP often increases.

Richard believes that inequality will widen.

Most models show the US population increasing for several decades. A median model is 342M today up to 383M in 2054.

Opposite of what the Fed thinks, Richard believes that lower interest rates can quell today’s persistent inflation.

The US has had 9 instances of high inflation. It’s often spurred by wars, which create shortages.

I tell Richard about GRE’s Inflation Triple Crown and ask his opinion.

Real estate values rise as debt-to-GDP rises.

I point-blank ask Richard if an economic crisis is imminent.

Resources mentioned:

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RidgeLendingGroup.com or call 855-74-RIDGE 

or e-mail: info@RidgeLendingGroup.com

Invest with Freedom Family Investments. 

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Complete episode transcript:

 

Keith Weinhold (00:00:01) - Welcome to GRE! I'm your host, Keith Weinhold. The phenomenon of population decline is spreading throughout the world. Will that come to the US and obliterate real estate then? A bit of a debate on the affliction of inflation and what this all means to real estate today on get rich education. When you want the best real estate and finance info. The modern internet experience limits your free articles access, and it's replete with paywalls. And you've got pop ups and push notifications and cookies. Disclaimers are. At no other time in history has it been more vital to place nice, clean, free content into your hands that actually adds no hype value to your life? See, this is the golden age of quality newsletters, and I write every word of ours myself. It's got a dash of humor and it's to the point to get the letter. It couldn't be more simple. Text GRE to 66866. And when you start the free newsletter, you'll also get my one hour fast real estate course completely free. It's called the Don't Quit Your Day dream letter and it wires your mind for wealth.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:01:18) - Make sure you read it. Text GRE to 66866. Text GRE to 66866.

 

Corey Coates (00:01:30) - You're listening to the show that has created more financial freedom than nearly any show in the world. This is get rich education.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:01:46) - We're going to drive from Lake Winnebago, Wisconsin to Mono Lake, California, and across 188 nations worldwide. I'm Keith Weinhold, and you're listening to get Rich education. Real estate is obviously a strong, proven store of value. Now, what's interesting is that most economists agree that money should be three things a medium of exchange, a unit of account, and a store of value. Well, please don't take offense here. This can sound a little crude, but there's one thing to call those that use dollars as a store of value, and that is poor. How is a dollar a store of value when you've had 20% plus cumulative inflation over the last three years alone, the dollar is a poor store of value. We're going to get into inflation with our other esteemed guest and gubernatorial appointee today. He has some opinions on inflation, and you may very well feel that I poke him on this topic today.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:02:58) - I'll also get his input on our inflation Triple Crown concept, where real estate helps you win with inflation three ways at the same time. But first, he and I are going to discuss the specter of population decline. And well, it's not always a specter to people because some feel that the world is better off with fewer people, environmentalists and others. Japan's native born population is falling at a rate of almost 100 people per hour. Yeah, you heard that right. Well, is that coming to the United States and how bad would that be for real estate? Before we go on with those discussions about population decline and then inflation, here's something cool. Is your first language Spanish, or do you have any Spanish speaking family or friends? If you do, you're in luck! I'm proud to announce that our real estate Pays five ways video course is now available in Spanish and it is free. Yes, all five course videos leverage depreciation, cash flow, ROA, tax benefits and inflation profiting. All broken down by me in Spanish.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:04:15) - You can see those five videos. And again they're free at get rich education. Comment espanol tell to familia e amigos. That's all right there on the page at get Rich education. Com slash espanol. And hey, if you're a business owner or decision maker and would like to advertise on our platform, well, we'd like to check you out first and look at this slowly. Oftentimes I use the product or service myself. Get rich. Education is ranked in the top one half of 1% of listened to podcasts globally, per lesson notes on air every single week since 2014. Some say that we were the first show to finally, clearly explain how real estate makes ordinary people wealthy. For advertising information and inquiries, visit get Rich education.com/ad let's get rich education compered. Today it's the return of a terrific guest. This week's guest was with us last year. He's an economic futurist, keynote speaker, and popular author. He's the former secretary of banking and securities for the Great Commonwealth of Pennsylvania. Today, he runs a group that predicts financial crises called Tycho's.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:05:40) - That's really interesting. Joining us from Philadelphia today. Hey, it's great to welcome back Richard Vague.

 

Richard Vague (00:05:47) - Thank you so much for having me. It's real privilege.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:05:50) - Vague is spelled vague u e just like it sounds. If you're listening in the audio only. Richard also has a YouTube channel where, among other things, he discusses topics like population decline and inflation. Two things that we'll get into today. But before that, Richard, how exactly do you get tapped by the governor of Pennsylvania to have been appointed his banking secretary? Anyway? How does that really happen?

 

Richard Vague (00:06:16) - Well, I served under Governor Thomas Wolf, a superb governor here at Pennsylvania. We kind of were both very familiar with each other, and I had already written a number of books on banking crises, including The Next Economic Disaster and A Brief History of Doom. And he had read those, and so much to my surprise, he showed up in my office one day and asked me if I'd consider it.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:06:40) - Wow, that is really cool.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:06:42) - All right. You kind of led with your writing in your books for making that happen. Richard, here's a big question that I have for you. At 8.1 billion people today is Earth's overpopulated or underpopulated?

 

Richard Vague (00:06:58) - Well, there's a lot of very valid points on both sides of that. You know, there are a number of folks who decry the level of population we have because of its destructive impact on the environment. And there's a lot of folks that note that it's population growth that really has made our economic growth so vibrant. So there's a real contention on that issue. We tend not to take a position, but what we do know is as world population growth is slowing, which it clearly is, that is going to make economic growth much more challenging in a whole lot of places around the world, some of which you're actually starting to see population declines, like China.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:07:46) - I want to get to that slowing growth in a moment. We talk about overpopulation versus under population. Some in the overpopulation camp thinking the world has too many people they're referred to as Malthusian, was named for Thomas Malthus, who in 1798 he said the world would exceed its agricultural carrying capacity and there was going to be mass starvation.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:08:09) - Malthus was wrong. He didn't consider technological advancements. So I guess my point is the future can be really difficult to predict.

 

Richard Vague (00:08:18) - Yeah. Without question. You know, the big innovation came in the early 1900s when we figured out how to synthetically manufacture of things like fertilizer, which allowed arable land area to increase dramatically. It kind of took them out of this equation off the table.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:08:36) - Yes. With the mechanization of harvesting and the engineering of foods, there sure have been a lot of advancements there to help feed more people. And yeah, Richard, you talk about population decline. Of course, the world population overall is still growing, but its rate of growth is declining. So before we talk about the United States, you mentioned China. Why don't we discuss population decline more in global terms, where even nations like India are already struggling to exceed the replacement birth rate of 2.1?

 

Richard Vague (00:09:10) - Yeah, I mean, it's a phenomenon that, you know, we haven't faced or perhaps even thought of for a couple hundred years because population growth accelerated so dramatically with the Industrial Revolution.

 

Richard Vague (00:09:22) - We've really not known anything but rapid growth. And frankly, it's easier to grow businesses. And the economy is old. But now we're seeing places like China, Japan, Germany that are facing population declines in places like India, which, as you said, is comparatively a younger country. Nevertheless, facing this prospect as well, then in 1980, the average age in the US was 30. Today it's 38. In Germany I believe it's 48. So the world is getting old in a way that it had not previously in the industrial revolutionary period.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:10:03) - I think a lot of people are aware that many parts of Europe, Japan, South Korea are in population decline or they're set up for population decline. But yes, some of these other nations that we think of as newer nations or growing nations, including India, are not forecast to. Grow in, Richard. Are we really down? Of course. There are a number of outliers. Are we down mostly to Africa that still have the high birth rates?

 

Richard Vague (00:10:29) - As the world has become more urban, the need for more kids has declined.

 

Richard Vague (00:10:35) - It's in an urban environment, become an expense rather than a benefit. So that alone accounts for the deceleration. And then you have folks that are getting married later, having kids later, and you simply can't have as many kids when those two things are true. So it's a combination of events, and there aren't that many places left that have higher birth rates. And even in Africa it's declining or decelerating. So the world's just moving in that direction.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:11:06) - Yeah. It's really once we see the urbanization trend in a nation, what lags behind that are slowing birth rates, oftentimes birth rates that don't even meet death rates in some places. It kind of goes back to the Thomas Malthus thing again, if you will. When you don't have a family farm, you don't need nine kids to milk the cows and shuck the corn and everything else like that. You might live in a smaller urban apartment.

 

Richard Vague (00:11:33) - But we're all just has it been thinking about this issue? And it's upon us now, and it's going to change everything from governments to handling debts to infrastructure to growth itself.

 

Richard Vague (00:11:48) - So we need to start thinking about this issue much more deeply than we have.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:11:54) - Is there any way that an economy can grow with a declining population, and how bad will it get?

 

Richard Vague (00:12:02) - An economy will obviously struggle to grow if the population is declining, but the per capita GDP and increase as population declines. And in fact, we might see that early on in a population decline situation. I think that's actually been true in Japan over the last few years. The population is down, but GDP per capita is actually increasing slightly. So I think it's longer term. When you talk about trying to service the debt that we have amassed with the smaller population, that we're really going to have issues.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:12:41) - Talk to us more about that. The servicing the debt part of a declining population.

 

Richard Vague (00:12:48) - The debt doesn't shrink on its own, you know, so it tends to grow because, you know, it's accruing interest.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:12:54) - It always seems to go one direction.

 

Richard Vague (00:12:56) - It always pretty much only goes in one direction. So it's pretty simple.

 

Richard Vague (00:13:00) - If you have growing debt and I'm talking about public debt and private debt, and you have a declining base to service that, you have more people in retirement who are not paying as much in the way of taxes. It's going to increase the challenge, and it may in fact, increase it considerably. As we look at a few decades.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:13:21) - We need productivity to pay down debt that's more difficult to do in the declining population. We talk about technological advancements, some things that we cannot foresee. Did you sort of lead on to the fact that some of this might help us be more productive, even in a declining population, whether that's machine learning or robotics or AI? What are your thoughts there?

 

Richard Vague (00:13:45) - That's something that's been predicted for quite some time. You know, if we look back not too far ago, economists were wondering what we were going to do with all of our free time, right? Because, you know, automate. And this goes back to the 20s and 30s and 40s what we do with all our free time.

 

Richard Vague (00:14:01) - So we again have conversations along those lines. You know, it's not inconceivable that we could all be sitting there, you know, sipping our Mai tais, and the machines could be doing all the work for us. And servicing debt might be easy in that scenario, I doubt it. I don't think that's what's going to happen.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:14:19) - The more technology advances, the more complex society gets. That continues to create jobs in places where we cannot see them. I mean, case in point here, in the year 2024, we're more technologically advanced than we've ever been in human history, obviously. Yet here in the United States, we have more open jobs than we even do people to fill them.

 

Richard Vague (00:14:39) - Yeah. And I think one of the things that all of this does is increase the march of inequality. You have folks that master the technology become engineers, software engineers and the like that are going to be the huge beneficiaries of these trends. But folks that don't have the skill sets aren't going to benefit from these trends.

 

Richard Vague (00:15:01) - And even though in aggregate, we may continue to see per capita GDP increase, our track record over the last few decades would suggest that inequality will increase just as markedly as it has in the past, so we'll have some societal issues to face.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:15:19) - That's concerning as inflation. Continues to exacerbate inequality simultaneously, which we'll talk about later. But population decline is of concern to us as real estate investors because of course, we need rent paying tenants. So this could be pretty concerning to some. You've probably seen a lot of the same models that I have, Richard, let me know. In the United States, population is projected to increase for several decades by every single model that I've seen, maybe even until or after the year 2100.

 

Richard Vague (00:15:53) - The projection is by 2050, we'll have about 380 something million people, and today we're at 330 million people. So clearly the population is going to continue. It's just kind of the relative portion of those populations. And what I think we're seeing, and you as real estate investors would know this better than I, is a shift towards the type of real estate out there.

 

Richard Vague (00:16:19) - Right? So instead of new homeowner development, it's retirement development that I think is going to be the higher growth sector with the real estate industry.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:16:31) - And we're surely going to see fewer offices be built, something that may never come back. And then when we talk about things like birth rates and population growth rates here in the real estate world, I sort of think of there as being a lag effect. It's really not so much about today's births in the United States, because people often rent their first place in their 20s, and then the average age of a first time homebuyer is an all time record high 36. And all those people are going to need housing into old age as well. So to me, it's sort of about, oh, well, how many people were born from the 1940s to the 1990s?

 

Richard Vague (00:17:10) - Well, there's a very useful tool that's pretty easily available called the Population Pyramid. You can find that on the CIA World Factbook site for every country and including the United States. And it shows exactly what you're talking about, which is the number of folks, you know, between 0 and 10 years old and into 20 years old and so forth.

 

Richard Vague (00:17:32) - So you can kind of make reasonable projections about the near term based on the data that the CIA World Factbook is kind enough for by I believe the UN has this data as well, so you can make informed judgments about the very thing you're talking about here, which is how many folks are in their 20s to over the next ten years versus the last ten years.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:17:54) - Yeah, that's reassuring to real estate investors to know that we expect several decades of population growth in the United States. However, it may be slowing growth. So we talked about births, I mentioned deaths. Well, you tell us a bit more about immigration, something else that can be very difficult to project here in the real estate world that we have a popular analyst called John Byrne's research and Consulting. Their data shows that we had 3.8 million Americans added to our population last year, much of it through immigration. That's a jump of more than 1%, an all time record in our 248 year history in one year alone. So can you tell us, at least in the United States, a bit more about immigration in the calculus for population projections? Richard.

 

Richard Vague (00:18:42) - Immigration is a huge factor in the demographics of every country in the US, from a pure population growth standpoint as benefited by in-migration, including illegal and migration. That is a positive comparison versus a lot of countries that are either more restrictive art is desirable destinations for immigration and the life. So it has benefited us from a pure population standpoint. But what we clearly see is there are cultural ramifications that are difficult for us to deal with. We have the percent of folks that are in the United States that were born in another country. It's the highest it's been, I think, at least in a century or more and perhaps ever, that is really difficult for the general population to absorb. We see this in the headlines every day. We see it the concern, we see it in the political rhetoric. It's a real issue. So you have a very real conflict between the economic benefits of immigration versus the cultural divisions that that immigration creates. And that's not going to be easy to digest or to resolve. I think we probably end up continuing to compromise, but it continues to be a political lightning rod right into the foreseeable future.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:20:14) - And there are so many factors here. Where's our future immigrant diaspora? Is it in places in Latin America like Guatemala? In Honduras, in Colombia. And are those people going to come from there? So there are a lot of factors, many of which aren't very predictable, to take a look at our future population growth rate in the United States. We're talking with economic futurist, author and Pennsylvania's former secretary of banking and Securities, Richard Moore, and we come back on the affliction of inflation. This is general education. I'm your host, Keith Weintraub. Role under this specific expert with income property, you need Ridge lending Group and MLS 42056 in grey history, from beginners to veterans. They provided our listeners with more mortgages than anyone. It's where I get my own loans for single family rentals up to four Plex's. Start your pre-qualification and chat with President Charlie Ridge personally. They'll even customize a plan tailored to you for growing your portfolio. Start at Ridge Lending group.com Ridge lending group.com. You know, I'll just tell you, for the most passive part of my real estate investing, personally, I put my own dollars with Freedom Family Investments because their funds pay me a stream of regular cash flow in returns, or better than a bank savings account, up to 12%.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:21:44) - Their minimums are as low as 25 K. You don't even need to be accredited for some of them. It's all backed by real estate and that kind of love. How the tax benefit of doing this can offset capital gains and your W-2 jobs income. And they've always given me exactly their stated return paid on time. So it's steady income, no surprises while I'm sleeping or just doing the things I love. For a little insider tip, I've invested in their power fund to get going on that text family to 66866. Oh, and this isn't a solicitation. If you want to invest where I do, just go ahead and text family to six, 686, six.

 

Speaker 4 (00:22:33) - This is author Jim Rickards. Listen to get Rich education with Keith Reinhold and don't quit your day dream.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:22:49) - Welcome back to get Rich. So we're talking with economic futurist, author and Pennsylvania's former secretary of banking and securities. His name is Richard Vague. And Richard, before the break we talked about how many more people are there going to be on this earth.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:23:03) - We know for sure that there's also the growth of the number of dollars in this nation. So we're talking about inflation here. You talk an awful lot about the affliction of inflation and the history of inflation. And I think a lot of people when we talk about the history of inflation, maybe we should begin chronologically. They don't realize that inflation wasn't always with us. Since the birth of this nation.

 

Richard Vague (00:23:30) - We haven't had that many episodes of inflation. We look at it pretty hard. We see nine what we would consider nine instances of high inflation. Most of those have come with war. So we certainly had that. The Revolutionary War right of 1812 and the Civil War and World War one and World War two. But inflation has been brief, contained and rare in the history of Western developed nations. We had our bout in the 1970s that related to OPEC and the constraint of the oil supply. It normally relates to the decimation or constraint of the supplies and the supply chain. We saw it again with Covid.

 

Richard Vague (00:24:17) - A lot of folks consider it to be a monetary phenomenon. We just don't see that in the data.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:24:24) - So we talk about what causes these bouts of inflation. You talked about nine of them. Well, he talked to us more about why wars often create inflation. Of course we're trying to create a lot of supplies during wars, but they tend to be only certain types of supplies.

 

Richard Vague (00:24:40) - World War One is a great example. Probably, you know, two thirds of the farms in Europe were decimated. So for a couple of years, there simply weren't the kind of crops that are needed for nutrition being grown in Europe, we Corps and the like. So the US had to, frankly, export something on the order of 20% of its crops to Europe to prevent starvation. Well, it's pretty easy to see that if the US if the supply has been decimated in Europe, we're having to ship, you know, a huge chunk of our crops to Europe, that the price of wheat and corn would go up.

 

Richard Vague (00:25:21) - And that's exactly what happened. It's also pretty easy to see that as those farms came back on stream and began growing crops, that the price of wheat and corn would drop. And that's exactly what happened. So you have this relatively short lived period of 2 or 3 years where the decimation of supplies caused inflation, and that's fairly typical.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:25:45) - Supply falls, demand exceeds supply and prices rise much like what happened with those Covid shortages, as you mentioned, what are the other major causes of inflation other than supply shortages that have caused these nine bouts of inflation?

 

Richard Vague (00:26:03) - Well, let's talk about major developed countries, which I would include Western Europe, the United States predominantly. That's pretty much the only thing that has brought sustained high inflation is supply constraint. We don't see instances of high government debt growth or money supply growth ever causing inflation. Now when you get to smaller countries where they are borrowing in a foreign currency, where they have a trade deficit and where they yield to the temptation of printing too much money, and I don't mean by printing, we use that term in the United States, and it's absolutely a fictitious term.

 

Richard Vague (00:26:50) - We don't print money in the United States. We have it printed money since the Civil War. So in a third world country, they can actually go to a printing press and start paying with cash for government supply needs. And you can see it very clearly when it happens and it very quickly leads to high inflation. You know, this is in places like Argentina and the like. So that would be the big issue in these countries. It's they borrow at a foreign currency. They have a trade deficit. They yield to the temptation of actually printing currency. It can get out of control pretty fast.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:27:26) - It feels immoral. As soon as more currency is printed, it dilutes the purchasing power surreptitiously of all those people that are holding that currency. What about Richard? The government printing. And we can put printing in quote marks, say, $1 trillion to fund a new infrastructure program. A technically that is inflation if we. Go back to the root definition of inflation, inflation being an expansion of the money supply.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:27:54) - But talk to us about how something like that does or does not dilute the purchasing power to fund, for example, a big infrastructure program.

 

Richard Vague (00:28:03) - Well, it just never happens in Western developed economies. And one of the reasons it doesn't happen is the government issuance of debt does not increase the money supply by a nickel. If the government issues debt, it actually withdraws or shrinks the money supply because folks like you and me would buy the government security that reduces the number of deposits in the system. The government immediately turns around and spends exactly that amount. So the size of the money supply from government debt projects remains exactly the same. It doesn't increase.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:28:42) - Does that act, however, increase our total absolute amount of national debt, which is currently $35 trillion?

 

Richard Vague (00:28:51) - Of course it does. Absolutely. But the increase in our debt is money largely played to the households. So what normally happens is when the government's dead increases, household wealth increases by that amount or a greater amount. So take the pandemic. In a three year period, government debt increased by $8 trillion, which means its net worth declined by $1 trillion.

 

Richard Vague (00:29:18) - Well, households were the beneficiaries of that household net worth in that three year period increased by $30 trillion. So, you know, net net, of course it increases their debt, but it dollar for dollar typically increases household wealth.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:29:33) - That wealth effect can feel great for consumers and families in the short term. But doesn't increasing their income substantially in a short period of time drive up prices and create this debase purchasing power of the dollar?

 

Richard Vague (00:29:46) - If we got our little green eyed shades out and went to try to find examples of that, we got a database of 49 countries that constituted 91% of the world's GDP. We just wouldn't find examples of that. And in the US, it's very easy to measure that. The number you're looking for is GDP. And we don't really see big cuts in GDP. You know, a wild swing in GDP would be 3.5% versus 2.5%. That's not a factor in any observable way. And what happens in inflation.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:30:19) - Richard, the term that I think about with what's happened the past few years in this Covid wave of inflation is the word noticeable.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:30:27) - People don't really talk about it. Consumers, families, they don't talk about inflation much when it's near its fed 2% target until it becomes noticeable. And now it's so obvious with what you see at the grocery store. So it's really infiltrated the American psyche in a way that it didn't five years ago.

 

Richard Vague (00:30:45) - Inflation, even moderate inflation, is a highly consequential thing to the average American consumer. And two things happened to increase our inflation. Covid supply chains decimated supplies and kicked up prices. And then a second thing happened that was even more consequential. And that is Russia invaded Ukraine. And you had two countries that were, if you add them together among the largest providers or suppliers of oil and wheat, and almost instantly the price of oil and wheat and other goods skyrocketed. It was those two things, Covid, plus the invasion of Ukraine that drove our inflation up to 9% in June of 2022. Now, in July, it dropped to 3% and it stayed at 3% ever since. But we had already driven prices up in the prior year or two.

 

Richard Vague (00:31:49) - And those prices even though the increases have moderated, those prices haven't come down right.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:31:55) - Nor will.

 

Richard Vague (00:31:55) - They. Now we have, you know, the threat of war again. So, you know, the price of oil just touch $90. Again, I would argue that, you know, it's going to be hard to see inflation come down. Much for like that 3 to 4 range because of the geopolitical situation. And one other thing that I would suggest is holding up inflation. And that's the Federal Reserve's interest rate. You know, if inflation is a measure of how expensive things are, high interest rates make things more expensive, right?

 

Keith Weinhold (00:32:27) - It's an irony.

 

Richard Vague (00:32:28) - It's almost exactly the opposite of what the orthodoxy at the Federal Reserve studies or believed. For whatever reason, if you're at an in an apartment in the apartment owner has leveraged their purchase of the apartments by 50 or 70 or 90% and their interest bill goes up, guess what? They have to. Charge you higher rate. I think some meaningful component of the stubbornness of inflation relates directly to the Federal Reserve's persistent interest rates.

 

Richard Vague (00:33:00) - I think the best thing they could do would be to pull interest rates down 1 or 200 basis points.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:33:07) - Well, that's interesting because the fed funds rate is pretty close to their long term average, and we still got inflation higher than their target. So tell us more about what you think is the best way out of this somewhat higher inflationary environment that we're still in Richard.

 

Richard Vague (00:33:22) - Well two things. I think the geopolitical impact on oil prices is you. And I think the interest rate impact, particularly on real estate prices, is huge. Those are the two things holding up inflation. So if you wanted to improve inflation, you'd lower interest rates and then you'd run around the world trying to calm down these hot spots. And you'd have 2% inflation.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:33:47) - Coming from some people's point of view, including the Fed's. If you lower interest rates you would feel inflationary pressures. So then go ahead and debunk this because the conventional wisdom is when you lower interest rates. Oh well now for consumers, you don't incentivize them to save as much because they wouldn't be earning much interest.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:34:06) - And if rates to borrow become lower, then you're incentivizing more people to borrow and spend and run up prices in fuel the economy. So what's wrong with that model?

 

Richard Vague (00:34:16) - Well, there's no empirical support for it. In 1986, when inflation dropped to 2%, interest rates were in the highest interest rates had been coming down by, you know, almost a thousand basis points over the prior 3 or 4 years. Money supply growth was 9%. So the two things the fed says are most the biggest contributors to rising inflation were both amply present when inflation dropped to 2%. So I just can't find any data to support the Fed's theory. And by the way, that data is not esoteric. That data is really readily available. You and I can go look at it. It's not a complicated equation. But over the last 40 years, in what at the age I call the great debt explosion, aggregate debt and the economy in 1981 was 125% of GDP. Today it's 260% of GDP and almost that entire 40 something year span.

 

Richard Vague (00:35:21) - Inflation and interest rates went down. Somebody, somewhere is going to have to show me the evidence for me to believe what the fed is canonical, which is almost a sacred balloon.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:35:33) - Well, that's a good look at history. In fact, something I say on the show often is let's look at history. And what really happens over having a hunch on how we think that things should proceed. You mentioned some inflation figures there. Why don't we wrap up inflation? Richard was talking about today's inflation measures. We've got the producer price index, the PPI, the widely cited CPI, which I recognize what you were stating earlier. And then of course there's the Fed's preferred measure, the core PCE, the core personal consumption expenditures. Richard, it's also funny to me when any measure is called core, it's core when they remove the food and energy inputs because those things are said to be too volatile. And of course, not only is food and energy essential, but what's more core than that? So perhaps the core rate should be called the peripheral rate.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:36:22) - But in any case, do you have any comments on the measures of inflation that are used today?

 

Richard Vague (00:36:28) - It's like you say, it's everything you just mentioned and more, because they're not just core inflation. There's something called super core, which I think is probably even more peripheral. Right. And I like your terminology better than the Fed's, but there's a lot of things to look at right now. They're all kind of coalescing around this at a low to mid 3% range. We got a new number coming out. It'll probably, you know here in the next few days. And it'll probably be a little bit higher than the last number, but we're talking about the difference to a 3.3% and 3.5%. And to me there's no difference between those two numbers. We were at 9%, as we just said, in June of 2022. And we're at a moderate level of inflation now after having suffered a rise in prices. It's not going to disappear. It's not fun, it's not comfortable, but it's moderate rabble.

 

Richard Vague (00:37:22) - It's not a big drought.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:37:24) - What's the right level of inflation in your opinion?

 

Richard Vague (00:37:28) - Okay. Anything fundamentally wrong with the the 2% number that the fed saw I think, you know, at 3 to 4% were probably on the high end of, of what might be considered acceptable. But again, it's not the fact that it's 3% that's the problem. It's the fact that it was 6 to 9% for a couple of years. Yeah, that's the problem. It'll get take a while for everything to adjust to that. In the meantime, you know, with all bets are all that you know, there's if these wars get further out of control and we see 90, $200 oil prices again, we're only about we're 50% more efficient users of oil today than were were in the 1970s. We're still a little bit over dependent.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:38:11) - Here at gray. I espouse how in everyday investor they can do more than merely hedge themselves against inflation, much like a homeowner with no mortgage would merely hedge themselves. But you can actually profit from inflation with a term that I've trademarked as the Inflation Triple Crown.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:38:27) - I'd like to know what you think about it. The inflation Triple Crown means that you win with inflation three ways at the same time, and all that you need to do in order to make that happen is get a fixed rate mortgage on an income property. The asset price increase is the inflation hedge. The debt debasement on your mortgage loan, that's an inflation profiting center. Is inflation debases that down while the tenant makes the payment. And then thirdly, now rents might only track inflation, but your cash flow is actually a profit center over time too because it outpaces inflation. Since as the investor your biggest monthly expense that principal and interest stays fixed and inflation cannot touch that. That's the inflation triple Crown. It's available to almost anyone. You don't need any degree, your certification or real estate license. What are your thoughts on that? Profiting from inflation the way we do here I think you're absolutely correct.

 

Richard Vague (00:39:22) - And I think you put it very, very well. And that's not just a trend at the individual property level.

 

Richard Vague (00:39:28) - We studied macroeconomics and we look at aggregate real estate values. And frankly, real estate values rise as debt to GDP rises. The more money there is, the more my dollars are chasing real estate and the higher real estate prices will go. So it's absolutely been the gin to put it into numbers in 1980 household. Well, this a percent of GDP was about 350%. Today it's almost 600% most household wealth that in the form of just two things real estate and stocks in somewhat equal measure, that's 80 or 90% of also. Well, so if you wanted to make money over the last 40 years and presumably over the next 40 real estate, one of the two places you could go.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:40:24) - Well, Richard, as we wind down here, you run a group that predicts financial crises. So I'd be remiss to let you go without asking you about it. We've had a prolonged inverted yield curve, and that's been a terrific track record as a recession predictor. Is a financial crisis imminent? Tell us your thoughts.

 

Richard Vague (00:40:41) - No, it's not. The predictor of financial crises is a rapid rise in private sector debt in ratio to GDP. We saw it skyrocket in the mid 2000 and we got a crisis in zero eight. We saw it skyrocket in the 1980s and we got the crisis in 87. We saw it skyrocket in Japan in the late 1980s. And you got the crisis of the 90s. We saw it skyrocketed in the 1920s and we got the Great Depression. That is the predictor. You know, we've studied that across major economies over 200 years. There really are exceptions to that as it relates to financial crises. Our numbers right now on the private debt side have been very flat, and they've really been very flat since 2008. They actually got a little bit better in that period, and they've been very flat over the last few years. We're not looking at a financial crisis in the United States. Other parts can't say that China is looking at a they're well into a massive real estate crisis there. We see companies there crumbling, declaring bankruptcy.

 

Richard Vague (00:41:53) - That's because they've had runaway private sector debt in China for the last ten years. And there's a few other countries that are facing that as well.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:42:02) - A lot of Chinese overbuilding there during that run up to, well, if you, the follower, are into using history over hunches to help you predict the future, Richard Baig really is a terrific resource for that, as you can tell. So, Richard, why don't you let our audience know how they can follow you and learn more?

 

Richard Vague (00:42:22) - You're so kind to say those words. We hope we provide something of value. You can get our weekly video if you go to join Dot Tycho's group.org and Tycho's is spelled E, ICOs, ICOs group. Or we send out a weekly five minute video because if you're like me, you have a short attention span and brevity is the soul of wit. I also have a book that came out recently called The Paradox of Debt. Yeah. Which, you know, covers a lot of the themes we've talked about here. You know, it'd be an honor to have anyone to pick up either.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:42:58) - Well, Richard, it's been a terrific discussion on both population decline and inflation. It's been great having you back on the show.

 

Richard Vague (00:43:05) - You have a great show. It's a privilege to be part of it. Thank you very much.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:43:15) - Yeah, big thanks to Richard Vague. Today he hits things from a different angle. With population decline perhaps not taking place in the US until the year 2100. Of course, we need to add years to that. Real estate investors might not have falling population growth in that crucial household formation demographic age. Then until the year 2125, well, that would be 100 more years of growth from this point. And yeah, I pushed him on our inflation chart somewhat. Richard isn't the first person, though I have heard others maintain that lower interest rates also lower inflation, where most tend to believe that the opposite is true, including the fed. In any case, wars drive inflation because they create supply shortages. That was true over 100 years ago when World War one and today with Russia, Ukraine.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:44:17) - I mean, is there any one factor that drives price increases more than supply shortages? The short supply of real estate itself is what keeps driving prices. And Richard asks us to look where some don't. That is that real estate values rise as debt to GDP rises. In his opinion, there is no financial crisis imminent. We need to see a rapid rise in private sector debt in proportion to GDP first. And you know what's remarkable about this economic slowdown or recession that still hasn't come, but it's been erroneously predicted by so many. It's the fact that recessions are often self-fulfilling prophecies. People have called on a recession for the last year or two. And that mere forecast alone that tends to make real estate investors think, well, then I won't buy the property because my tenant might lose their job in a recession. And businesses don't hire when everyone says a recession is coming. That's exactly how a recession becomes self-fulfilling. And despite two years of that, it still hasn't happened. That's what's remarkable. Anyone sitting on the sideline keeps losing out again.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:45:37) - You can follow Richard. Big Tycho's is spelled Tycho's. Follow a joint Tycho's group.org. Richard and I talked some more outside of our interview here, and he had a lot of compliments about the show. In fact, more compliments than any guest has given in a while. He had not heard of our show before last year. I'm in Philadelphia somewhat regularly and I might hit him up the next time I'm there. We'll get lunch or something. Check out Gray in Spanish at Get Rich education comma. Espanyol. Thank you for tuning in today where our episode was Bigger Picture education. Next week's show will be substantially more hands on real estate. I'm Keith Wayne a little bit. Don't quit your day dream.

 

Speaker 5 (00:46:24) - Nothing on this show should be considered specific, personal or professional advice. Please consult an appropriate tax, legal, real estate, financial or business professional for individualized advice. Opinions of guests are their own. Information is not guaranteed. All investment strategies have the potential for profit or loss. The host is operating on behalf of get Rich education LLC exclusively.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:46:52) - The preceding program was brought to you by your home for wealth building. Get rich education.com.




Direct download: GREepisode498_.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 4:00am EDT

No one gets wealthy from a high salary. Wealth is acquired by owning things.

But how can you own MANY things without much money? I discuss it.

Learn how to use major banks (Chase, Wells Fargo) to fuel your wealth and retirement when you’re young. 

Debt is like fire. Kids will burn down the house with fire. Adults will use fire (debt) to produce prudent leverage and outsized returns. 

High salaries don’t create wealth due to: lost time, no leverage, few tax benefits, and entrapment due to sunk education costs.

I sat down with a conventional financial advisor. Things got interesting. 

Learn why Western US homes cost more than Eastern US homes. This fact confounds most real estate pros. I break down 8 reasons.

Resources mentioned: 

Show Page:

GetRichEducation.com/497

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Complete episode transcript:

Welcome to GRE! I’m your host, Keith Weinhold.

Don’t make this giant wealth mistake - understand why a high salary does NOT create wealth. Learn what does instead. 

See how to get deep pocketed-banks like Chase & Wells Fargo build wealth for YOU. 

I recently sat down with a traditional financial advisor - this got interesting. Then, why do WESTERN US homes cost more than EASTERN us homes? All today, on Get Rich Education.

 

Welcome to GRE! From Port Jervis, NJ to the Port of Bellingham, WA and across 188 nations worldwide, I’m Keith Weinhold and you’re listening to Get Rich Education. Welcome in!

 

When I grew up, I thought that people got wealthy from high salaries. I figured that I could get wealthy if I got a high salary too.

 

And then adulthood has proven to me that… they don’t. 

 

People don’t get wealthy from high salaries. They get wealthy by OWNING THINGS.

 

Let’s break this down. 

 

People DON’T get wealthy from high salaries. 

 

In fact, have you ever seen THIS happen? I haven’t. I worked as an employee in both the public sector and the private sector, and I’ve been a longtime real estate investor and entrepreneur. 

 

In fact, how would anyone even GET wealthy from a high salary?

 

If you’ve got a job… you’re trading your time for dollars and selling your time for money. 

 

I used to do that too… and I actually think that everyone might get some perspective by having a taste of that. Most get that taste.

 

And say you’re even entrenched in the game of climbing the corporate ladder, to a higher and higher salary.

 

Well, first, in my experience, many job promotions get you perhaps 10 to 30% more in salary, but 2x to 4x the responsibility - that’s 200% to 400% more responsibility.  

 

Even if there’s an edge case here, in your situation, in climbing the corporate ladder - where does that even get you in the end?

 

Look at your supervisor and their lifestyle. Is that what you want to be?

 

Look up higher at your supervisor’s supervisor. What’s their life like? Is that the life that you REALLY want? 

 

Is that what you aspire to be - and expend so much of your most precious resources to get THERE - time, time away from your family, energy, skill, potential. Is that really it? 

 

The answer is right in front of you!

 

People don’t get wealthy from high salaries. People get wealthy from OWNING THINGS. We’ll get more on how - if you have average means - on how you can OWN MANY THINGS shortly. 

 

But first, let me address any more hangups you might have if you still think that high salaries can create wealth. 

 

We won’t even look at, sort of, common jobs like an IT specialist or a systems analyst or a plumber. 

 

Let’s take an edge case - a classically, high paid profession - a doctor, a surgeon, a specialist even. Highly compensated - several hundred thousand dollars in salary each year. I know some of them. 

 

I also know a bunch of RESIDENT doctors too and I talk with them - they’re basically, finished with their formal schooling and are doctors-in-training. 

 

They are repaying loans deep into the six figures after undergrad pre-med and after a few more years at medical school - often it seems to be $300K to $400K in debt that they have to pay back in the case of these resident doctors.

 

But that’s besides the point. It’s common for these specialist physicians, once they start working, to work as a doctor for, say, 58 hours a week… or 71-and-a-half hours a week. 

 

Now I said that high salaries don’t create wealth. How wealthy are you, if after undergrad, med school, and three years of low paid residency, you finally get out, you’re in your 30s or older, and you’re working 60+ hours a week. 

 

60+ hours a week is not MY idea of wealth and freedom at all. 

 

You know what else, when you’ve pursued a specialty track like that, which often comes with loads of debt, you are in so deep - you’ve invested so much time & energy & chapters of your life… and DEBT into that field you CAN’T pivot to another career, even if you wanted to. 

 

You’re trapped. Entrapment is the very opposite of wealth and freedom.  

 

Understand, I just went out and gave an example of perhaps the highest salary type of person that I can think of… to help prove my point. Where’s that leave you?

 

And you’ve probably heard… the “end game” trope… about climbing the corporate ladder by now. 

 

Yep, you spent the best years of your life climbing the corporate ladder… only to find at the end… at the top… that the ladder was leaning up against the wrong wall the whole time.

 

Because high salaries don’t make people wealthy, then how do people get wealthy from OWNING THINGS?  

 

There are two main ways:

 

#1 - You can launch and own a business.

#2 - Real estate.

 

Now, launching and owning a business takes a ton of entrepreneurial ambition, risk, and you’ve got to have a novel idea - a NEW idea - that creates value for the world.

 

This can be a worthwhile venture… and successful entrepreneurs create value for the world with their own business. It’s terrific! It’s capitalistic! It’s turning lower use resources into higher use resources.

 

But unless you have your own money, you’re going to have to be scrappy and resilient for a long time. Because it’s really hard to get loans for a new business.

 

If you hire anyone to help you, you need to quickly produce enough income to have leftover profit - paying your overhead expenses, software subscriptions, paying your help… and having enough leftover to fuel your own lifestyle.

 

Household names like Apple and Facebook are one-in-a-million. You don’t have to be an Apple or Facebook. But it’s tough. 

 

The first way is by owning a business. The second way is by owning real estate. 

 

New businesses are unproven. Real estate is proven. Like I say, wealthy people’s money either starts out in RE or ends up in RE.

 

But how do you OWN much real estate? Because RE is expensive, and wealth is created by OWNING things.

 

With prudent loans. Because RE is proven, banks will GIVE you loans. Lots of them. Have good credit, be credit worthy.

 

And… being credit worthy should be an innate trait in any virtuous human being. Because it shows that you repay the debts that you owe. 

 

I think that when it comes to debt, debt is like fire. Don’t let a little kid play with fire. They’ll burn down the house. 

 

Leave fire to adults. They’ll use it to HEAT the house. 

 

Leave debt to the adults. Use debt to fuel your lifestyle, fuel your ambitions, and fuel your opportunities. To the scarcity mindset of “all debt is bad”, here at GRE we say, you’re an adult. Grow up. 

 

Learn… that debt is Leverage… and your debt isn’t paid back by you at all. Tenants and inflation both RELENTLESSLY and INCESSANTLY pay it down for you, until they pay it OFF for you… if you want.  

 

So then, who’s really funding your wealth, enabling you to own things? 

 

Who really funded my wealth from nothing, enabling me to own things? 

 

Who funded my retirement? Leverage… from Chase Bank, Wells Fargo, Bank of America, and other banks. They all give you the opportunity to let THEM fund your wealth for you. 

 

Now, I’m going to explain a core GRE principle here. But so that this isn’t repetitive for the longtime listener, I’ll use a NEW analogy for you, here.

 

Look, let’s say that you’re a kid. You don’t know how to responsibly use fire or debt. In fact, you’re still just 4’ tall. 

 

But learning about leverage is like… seeing the light.

 

Now, with the sunlight, a 4’ tall kid can now cast a 20’ tall shadow. You look like a giant now.

 

5-to-1 leverage made you, not just grow up, but grow into a giant. You suddenly wield the power of a financial giant thanks to the banks. 

 

Because with your 20% down payment, you're only putting up one-fifth of the property price.

 

How then, do these big banks make you a giant?

 

Let’s say that’s your $40K down - on a $200K income property, when the property appreciates only 4% - like RE did last year per the NAR number - you just got a 20% return. 

 

How? Because you got a 4% return on both your $40K down… and you got a 4% return on your $160K borrowed. 

 

Yep, the return from that $160K of borrowed bank money didn’t go to Wells Fargo, it won’t go to Chase Bank, it won’t go to Bank of America.

 

It ALL goes to you - because you leveraged them. That’s how you beat the banks. That’s how you build wealth.

 

Two years ago, when property appreciated 10% that year, you got a 50% leveraged return.

 

And it gets better than that. You can make income property down payments even lower than 20%, like I did when I began.

 

A 4’ tall kid then, that sees the light, can cast an even taller shadow than 20 feet at 5:1 leverage. A bigger giant.  

 

Any GRE devotee knows that leveraged appreciation is one of just 5 ways you’re paid. We’re only talking about ONE here.

 

Sounds amazing. Some think, “There’s gotta be a catch.” There is, but it’s manageable. Leverage amplifies losses, just like gains.

 

Though it doesn’t happen often, RE can go down in value. 

 

Even in a downturn, look at what happens. Between any ten-year period, nominally, you won’t find any loss of RE value in modern history… and you must manage cash flows.

 

So, no. This is not a 6-month plan. It’s to build wealth durably with a reliable vehicle in more like five to ten years. 

 

It gets better. As your equity grows, harvesting it out through a cash-out refi maintains your… magnification into a financial giant, to stick with the analogy.

 

And every cash-out refinance that you do… is a tax-free event. Not tax-deferred. Tax-free.

 

You can make tax-free cash grabs, separating it out from your properties along the way, since the IRS doesn’t classify debt windfalls as taxable income, and you have a pro PM handling all the day-to-day for you, if you prefer.

 

Now you really know WHY, wealth is not created from high salaries. It’s created from owning things.  

 

And you need to be more than creditworthy. You need to be strategic in building your portfolio with the right properties in the right markets. 

 

Set up a time with one of our GRE Investment Coaches… and they help you do exactly that for free.

 

Either that or you can just keep believing that high SALARIES create wealth. Ha! 

 

Now, a few weeks ago here on the show, I told you that I’ve had a sit-down meeting coming up with a conventional financial advisor - a retirement planner type of guy. 

 

I’ve been getting their e-mails and dismissing them, for 8 or 10 years, but I always stayed subscribed.

 

This is from when I used to work at a State DOT - Department of Transportation. 

 

So I finally responded & we set up a 1-hour sit-down. We did it virtually on web conferencing. 

 

I prepared by having some things ready for him that he asked for - like my monthly cash flow statement, net worth worksheet, and he also asked I have my Soc. Sec. statement pulled up, so I had that ready.

 

Now, this is not the forum for espousing GRE’s proven wealth-building formula to him. No PROS-il-uh-tie-zing. proselytizing. 

 

And, he told me that… I’m in really good shape.

 

He didn’t dig in with questions on my backstory, like, how were you able to retire at such a young age… or how did you amass all this?

 

And yes, I could retire now. I could have a while ago. I think you know that. 

 

He was interested in knowing what the cash flow from the rental properties was. In fact, that was his first question about them. Good first question. 

 

Interestingly, he really wanted to know how long I have to pay on my rentals. Like, when would the 30-year mortgages be paid off? 

 

Well, gosh, they all have 20-some years to go. Most of them are clustered around 27 years to go. 

 

He could see that I COULD pay many of them off quickly, now, if I wanted to. But he didn’t tell me that I should. Of course, I wouldn’t want to lose the leverage.

 

You know the most interesting question that this conventional financial advisor asked about these properties that I have all over the place, in different states and even nations?

 

He asked, “Do you plan to LIVE in any of these areas?” 

No, I don’t plan to live in those properties or even in those areas. I pick investor-advantaged areas for investments, and live where I want to live.

 

Now, he encouraged me to import my financial info into their retirement portal. When I say, they, he works for a private company that administers the DOT’s retirement plan.

 

You know, I had previously been reluctant to do that and share all my financials with another party. 

 

But, I’ve got to say, I’ve reconsidered and MIGHT enter it in there. It does some pretty impressive modeling and scenarios. 

 

For the properties, you enter the address and they use Zillow estimated values. 

 

It looks at how the graphs change when you get to the age of where any pensions and soc sec & all that enters your life. 

 

All-in-all, maybe you thought I’d bust this guy's chops for being scarcity-minded or not about passive cash flow. But he was pretty good. It was an hour of my time well-spent, I would even say. 

 

And again, the reason that I was able to be positioned this way comes down to… relying on compound LEVERAGE, not compound interest - casting the shadow of a 20-foot tall giant compared to when you’re a 4-foot tall child.

 

BTW, I do NOT consider myself retired. I remote “asset manage” my REIs and I produce this show, produce videos for our YouTube channel, write our newsletter, and write for Forbes and more… on material that is interesting to me and helps others.

 

Coming up straight ahead, why do homes in Western US states cost more than homes in the East?

 

This fact makes zero sense to most people, because areas east of the Mississippi River are more densely populated. 

 

In fact, nearly 2/3rds live on just over 1/3rd of the land, suggesting the East should clearly be pricier. 

 

Then how could it be opposite? It might seem weird. That’s coming up shortly.

 

You’re listening to Get Rich Education podcast Episode 497. That means we’re just three weeks away from a special, milestone, Episode 500.

 

I’ll tell ya. I sure know how to put the performance pressure on myself, don’t I? Ha! 

 

Something here that we don’t often talk about or offer the opportunity for…

 

… if you’re a business owner or decision maker and would like to advertise on our platform, well, we’d like to check you out first. 

 

Often, I use the product or service myself first.  

 

Get Rich Education is ranked in the Top one-half of 1% of listened-to podcasts globally, per Listen Notes. 

 

On air EVERY single week since 2014, some say that we were the first show to finally CLEARLY explain how RE makes ordinary people wealthy. 

 

For advertising information and inquiries, visit, GetRichEducation.com/Ad. That’s GetRichEducation.com/A-D

 

More next. I’m KW. You’re listening to Get Rich Education. 

 

A little tribute and melodic swan song to Russell Gray there.

 

Welcome back to Get Rich Education. I’m your host, KW. 

 

Before returning to real estate, let’s do a quick first quarter asset class review.

 

It’s coming a little later than usual here. But it’s good to see what the rest of the world is doing. 

 

Almost everywhere you look, asset prices are up, up, up.

 

In real estate, as housing intelligence analyst Rick Sharga & I discussed in detail here in each of the last two weeks, prices & sales volume are both up.

 

The S&P had its best start to a year since 2019, up 11%

 

The yield on the 10-yr T-note was up 26 basis points. Remember that mortgage rates move closely along with that. 

 

Gold was up 8% to an ATH over $2,200. And gold even touched $2,300 here in Q2.

 

In the first quarter, oil was up 15% to $83.

 

Bitcoin was up 68% to $70K

 

And the biggest beneficiary of AI hype, Nvidia was up 88% in just the first quarter.

 

And this is even wilder - a little wild card for you here - for the first time ever, cocoa prices briefly surpassed $10,000 per metric ton, making the confectionary commodity more valuable than copper.

 

That’s what’s goin’ in the TOTAL investment world.

 

Why do homes out West cost more than homes in Eastern states?

 

This fact makes zero sense to most people, because the East is more densely populated. 

 

According to the US Census Bureau, 64.4% of Americans live east of the Mississippi River. That’s on land that's barely more than one-third of the US - because the Mississippi doesn’t run right down the center, it’s a little to the east of center in the contiguous states.

 

So this means that nearly 2/3rds of people live on just over 1/3rd of the land, suggesting the East has GOT be pricier. 

 

Well, it’s strange to many that it is, in fact, just the opposite. The West is pricier.

 

Now that pandemic migration and RE prices have settled, we’ve taken a fresh look at prices and this trend - which is curious to many - continues.

 

Let me demystify it for you. 

 

And you saw a beautiful, colorful map that brilliantly demonstrates this. I sent it to you a few weeks ago if you’re a DQYD Letter subscriber. 

 

Now, there are some notable exceptions to "the West is pricier", like New England and south Florida. Housing is expensive in densely populated northeastern cities.

 

New Mexico is an outlier as a cheap western state.

 

No, the West is not pricier because The Kardashians' lavish $200M total portfolio of California real estate skews the entire nation.

 

Here's my more, I suppose, scholarly breakdown. 

 

Yes, one of my degrees was in Geography before I became a real estate investor.

 

The first reason is - NEW: The west has more new-build homes.

 

Higher costs of land and labor, then, had to be priced in. Eastern homes are older because it's closer to Europe's (die-A-spruh) diaspora, where the US' early immigration was heaviest.

 

Then there’s the factor of - the FEDS: No, not Jerome Powell’s Fed. 

 

It’s that over 90% of federal land is located out West. No building is typically allowed here, and that makes developable land more scarce.

 

This helps explain why when you see huge swaths of undeveloped land when you fly over the West and think there’s boundless room for growth and sprawl, often times, there… is… not.

 

3-D: Maps are 2-D. The world is 3-D. Western housing is expensive because you have scenarios like port cities surrounded by mountains and high desert. 

 

So developable land is more scarce than it seems, making demand exceed supply in more places out West than what one might think. 

 

San Fran is confined by the bay and hills. Seattle is confined to an isthmus. Salt Lake City is next to the Wasatch Range. Alaska looks enormous, but nearly half it’s state’s population lives in the biggest city of Anchorage, which is sandwiched between water, mountains, and that aforementioned federal land.

 

The fourth reason, is CALIFORNIA DREAMIN'. Despite recent domestic OUT migration and The Kardashians aside, California REALLY DOES help tilt the balance. 

 

People are attracted to SoCal's Mediterranean climate such that nearly 1-in-8 Americans are still coolin' in Cali, with a median home price of $737,700. That climate desirability drives up prices.

 

Much of CA also has… these layers - just myriad - codes and limits and regulations like, for example, solar panels on new construction that can add $25K to a home's cost alone.

 

The next reason western homes cost more than Eastern home is, what I’ll call…

 

DOWN BY THE RIVER: 

 

[Play insert]

 

Ha! Famous classic comedy sketch there, with the late Chris Farley. 

 

The East has the Great Lakes and more rivers. 

 

It costs 1/12th as much to transport goods and housing materials over water than land. 

 

That is a fact that has been stated on this show previously. It was first brought up a few years ago when we had geopolitical strategist Peter Zeihan here to discuss the “geography of real estate” with me. 

 

A river city like Memphis is a GIGANTIC transportation hub, for example. This keeps down the costs for all kinds of consumer goods and building materials, making for a lower cost of living and, in turn, property prices. 

 

QUAKIN': There's more seismicity out West. It costs more to BUILD to those construction standards. 

 

For example, CA and WA are 20%+ more expensive to build than many Southeastern states. There are more fires in the Western US, tornadoes in the middle, and hurricanes in the East.

 

JOBS: It takes more high-paying jobs to attract new residents and get them to uproot and move to the faster-growing West. Higher incomes buy pricier homes. 

 

The East has tons of jobs going for it too. In fact, the northeast might be the world’s most productive region - NYC, Boston, Philly, DC. 

 

But out in Appalachia and elsewhere, there are some waning business sectors like various heavy industries and coal. But most of the ones that were going to move out, already HAVE moved out, decades go. Much of that downdrain is overwith.

 

The last reason is…

 

I CAN SEE CLEARLY NOW: The West has mountain and desert VIEWS. These can be seen from farther away than Eastern… forest and flatter areas and piedmont landscapes. The East has a lot of lake and river view properties though… and… 

 

There they are—8 reasons why Western homes cost more than Eastern homes.

 

Now you know why West Virginia has million dollar homes so big that you can get lost indoors. 

 

And in coastal Cali, it seems like a million bucks gets you little more than a ramshackled pool house.

 

Of course, at times, I've had to make gross generalizations about such a vast nation of 340 million people and so many variables. 

 

Otherwise, this episode could be a few hours long. As I discussed those, you sure could think to yourself at times, “I believe there’s an EXCEPTION to that criterion.”

 

I want to tell you why this all MATTERS TO YOU shortly. 

 

Yes, there is some irony here though. The western US has lands that are arid, inhospitable, and what some describe as wastelands, like four deserts.

 

Well, the invention of the air conditioner made those places more livable. 

 

The West also has the most beautiful national parks, and hey, some find places in the East INhospitable, like Michigan’s Upper Peninsula in March.

 

Now, I like a change in seasons, coming from Pennsylvania like I do, but some don’t. You’ve got to serve real estate to where people want to own and rent. 

 

Florida has not been thought of as a mosquito-infested swamp since last century. Today, it’s livable and desirable to many. 

 

Now, there are some other factors in addition to the main 8 reasons I’ve mentioned, on why Western US homes cost more than Eastern US homes, from a slavery legacy to unionization and more. I’ve been hitting the big ones here.

 

Real estate has made more ordinary people wealthy than anything else. 

 

When you're on our website, GRE Marketplace, and hover over the blue "INVEST" button, you'll notice that most long-term rental investor markets are in the East.

 

There's a reason.

 

Rents are strong relative to this LOW PURCHASE PRICE that I’ve discussed here.

 

And now you know more of the “whys” behind the Eastern US’ lower property prices. And maybe, today, I hope it's the BEST understanding you’ve ever had for why that’s the case. 

 

We buy in strategically chosen GROWTH areas that tend to be more East than West. 

 

And, that’s really part of the progression of this show. We began in 2014 with this podcast and other real estate investor education. We still lead with that.

 

But next, listeners wanted to know where they could FIND PROPERTIES conducive to our wealth-building strategy, and we added that at GRE Marketplace. 

 

Yet, that still wasn’t enough because I noticed that some of you that wanted to build your wealth with real estate, needed to make it easier to have your questions answered, or find a lender, or insurer, or find just the right property in the right market that fits your goals.

 

So starting more than two years ago, we added Investment Coaching - it’s still free like everything else that we do here. 

 

Our coaches are real people and real, direct, real estate investors just like you are… and just like I am. Our coaches simply have more EXPERIENCE doing it than most people do.

 

Because knowledge is not power, but knowledge plus action is power, I often like to leave you with something actionable… that’s really going to help you at the close of the show. 

 

If you didn’t already know, you can find properties and a coach, at GREmarketplace.com

 

Until next week, I’m your host, KW. DQYD!

 

Direct download: GREepisode497_.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 4:00am EDT

Get our free real estate course and newsletter: GRE Letter

Apartment construction is falling. It’s not because banks are pulling back from lending. Projects aren’t feasible for builders.

Housing market intelligence analyst Rick Sharga returns to discuss the real estate market. 

We discuss: real estate price movement, affordability concerns, expected mortgage rate changes, migration, price reductions, new homes vs. existing homes.

Can anyone even find a new-build $225K detached SFH today? They’re nearly extinct.

Homebuilders are still buying down mortgage rates for you into the 4%s and 5%s at GREmarketplace.com.

America needs more SFHs, especially at the entry-level. 

Apartment rents have declined a little. SFH rents are up about 3% year-over-year. 

Delinquency and foreclosure activity remains low. These have a strong correlation with unemployment rates.

The volume of homes sales should increase this year, but only by perhaps 10%.

A recession is still quite possible later this year and expected to be mild.

Every region of the nation is currently experiencing residential RE price growth. 

When mortgage rates fall, more new buyers than sellers are expected, pushing up property prices.

Resources mentioned:

Show Page:

GetRichEducation.com/496

Inquire about business with Rick:

CJPatrick.com

Rick Sharga on X:

@ricksharga

LinkedIn:

Rick Sharga

For access to properties or free help with a

GRE Investment Coach, start here:

GREmarketplace.com

Get mortgage loans for investment property:

RidgeLendingGroup.com or call 855-74-RIDGE 

or e-mail: info@RidgeLendingGroup.com

Invest with Freedom Family Investments. 

You get paid first: Text FAMILY to 66866

Will you please leave a review for the show? I’d be grateful. Search “how to leave an Apple Podcasts review” 

Top Properties & Providers:

GREmarketplace.com

GRE Free Investment Coaching:

GREmarketplace.com/Coach

Best Financial Education:

GetRichEducation.com

Get our wealth-building newsletter free—

text ‘GRE’ to 66866

Our YouTube Channel:

www.youtube.com/c/GetRichEducation

Follow us on Instagram:

@getricheducation

Keith’s personal Instagram:

@keithweinhold

 

Complete episode transcript:

 

Keith Weinhold (00:00:00) - Welcome to GRE. I'm your host, Keith Weinhold. Tons of new apartments were built last year, but that's abruptly going to change going forward. You'll learn why. Then a housing market intelligence analyst and I break down what's happening in the real estate market and the future direction of rents, prices, foreclosures, interest rates, and a lot more today on get Rich education. When you want the best real estate and finance info. The modern internet experience limits your free articles access, and it's replete with paywalls. And you've got pop ups and push notifications and cookies. Disclaimers are at no other time in history has it been more vital to place nice, clean, free content into your hands that actually adds no hype value to your life? See, this is the golden age of quality newsletters, and I write every word of ours myself. It's got a dash of humor and it's to the point to get the letter. It couldn't be more simple. Text GRE to 66866. And when you start the free newsletter, you'll also get my one hour fast real estate course completely free.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:01:16) - It's called the Don't Quit Your Day Dream letter and it wires your mind for wealth. Make sure you read it. Text GRE to 66866. Text GRE 266866.

 

Corey Coates (00:01:34) - You're listening to the show that has created more financial freedom than nearly any show in the world. This is get rich education.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:01:50) - Welcome to grow from Alexandria, Egypt, to Alexandria, Virginia, and across 188 nations worldwide. I'm Keith Weinhold, holding your inside get rich education. I'm grateful to have you here. A few weeks ago, I discussed all the apartment buildings that were constructed last year. One thing that you'll often hear out there today is that apartment construction is now falling because banks are pulling back on construction lending. But no, it's really not quite that simple. In fact, that's not even the top reason for construction delays now and going forward with apartments. The number one reason for the delays today is that the project is not economically feasible at this time. That's what the NMC tells us. All right. So what does that really mean? Well, it means that projects aren't penciling out.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:02:44) - In other words, apartment developers, they can't generate the returns that they need to justify the project to their capital partners, those that are funding the building. And this is, by the way, not about greedy developers, because contrary to some of the noise, it's the fact that developers do not self-fund their projects. They get the money from others. So yeah, it's the developer's job to convince investors and lenders to inject that capital. And that is just harder to do right now. Despite developer's best efforts and higher rates are obviously still contributing to the problem. It's not so much that the construction financing is not available, because for residential, it's often there. It's available. The thing is, is that apartment mortgage terms and rates are way less favorable than they were a couple of years ago, as we all know. So developers, I mean, they're paying a higher interest rate then. And you therefore need higher rent to cover that higher interest rate unless you can cut a lot of costs elsewhere and in apartments, you're also getting a lower loan to value ratio.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:03:55) - So that means developers, they therefore need to raise even more equity in order to cover that gap. And what's happened is a lot of the equity that's shifted away from brand new ground up apartment development, and instead it's gone over into chasing potential lease up distressed deals, properties that are already out there and are having some problems. So that's where the apartment money is moving right now. Not so much to new developers and builders also aren't building many apartments this year because construction costs remain a problem. Some materials got cheaper, others didn't. One bright spot is that construction labor that is getting easier to find. But yet the actual labor cost that really hasn't dropped. Property insurance is higher too, so these rising expenses, that means apartment projects are not penciling out for builders and then apartment rents. They're just not rising that much. That doesn't help. So it's hard for it to rise, since so many were built last year and the year before. They're in the apartment world. But obviously the long term demand is for just about all residential housing.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:05:11) - That demand. Is there loads of long term demand for apartments, condos, single family homes, co-ops, modular homes, mobile homes, duplexes, triplexes, fourplex container homes, row houses, farmhouses, penthouses, outhouses. I think you get the idea. The demand is there. Residential is the resilient spot, and it's all about where you want to get in. And speaking of homebuilders and finding a smart place to get in, it's important to share with you the good news that homebuilders are still buying down your interest. Right for you. Now the third year rate, it hit 8% last year. And Non-owner occupied property costs a little more. So it was nearly 9% on income property. It's come down off that as we know it's been around seven lately. But see here at GREwe work with builders that are still buying down your interest rate into the fives and sometimes still into the fours on new construction, single family homes, up to four plex and sometimes larger in Florida, Alabama and elsewhere. I mean, that is just the best deal going for you today to have an income producing new build property in the path of growth at 4 to 1, leverage to 5 to 1 leverage and.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:06:46) - Your mortgage in the fives or less, and we'll help you find the real deals within that. To connect with a great investment coach at great marketplace.com. I think you'll be glad you did. Now, today, if somehow I could use a time machine to write a letter back to my 2020 self and inform myself about what's going to happen in the housing market for the next 4 or 5 years? And I had to keep this note to myself short. I would have written that everything is going to shoot way up, rents up, prices up, interest rates up, expenses up, inflation up. Well, now that nearly all of those run ups have settled into place, we can draw a clearer picture of where we think the real estate market is going to be positioned in the future. Our guest has just freshened things up and he's got the latest in the property market all updated for us. I do two with my own research. You'll like this. It's our housing intelligence analyst guests and I. Straight ahead.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:07:55) - I'm Keith Weinhold. You're listening to get Rich education. 

 

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Kristin Tate (00:09:42) - This is author Kristin Tate. Listen to get Rich education with Keith Weinhold. Don't quit your day dream.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:09:59) - Hey what has not been a very long goodbye. Just like last week when we discussed the economy this week we have the return of the C.J. Patrick Company's Rick Sharga, an extraordinary housing intelligence analyst, as we more specifically cover the real estate market. And if you're on video, you'll have the benefit of seeing some charts as well. Rick. Welcome back. Good to be back, Keith. Long time no see. Yeah, it hasn't been so long. What are your overall thoughts with the housing market? Last week we largely talked about a resilient economy potentially with some headwinds. Yeah we did.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:10:32) - And I think we're one of the things we left off on was the impact that the Federal Reserve had had on the mortgage market and the housing market. We probably start there. When you look at what's gone on, and just to show you how random all of this can feel sometimes this is a snapshot of mortgage rates from March 12th. And mortgage rates were trading at about 6.92% for a 30 year fixed rate loan.

 

Rick Sharga (00:10:56) - The most recent number I saw was about 7.1%. And as I mentioned to you and your listeners last time, I expect until the Federal Reserve makes its first fed funds rate cut, we're going to see mortgages trade right around 7% between 6.75 and 7.25%. This has made a big difference in the market because it has limited affordability for literally millions of prospective home buyers. That's makes for a difficult situation for people looking to buy or sell homes, but it also presents millions of rental property opportunities because these people need to live somewhere and they've voted themselves off the island temporarily. They just can't afford to buy a house.

 

Rick Sharga (00:11:41) - And you see that in terms of the reduction in number of mortgage applications that are being made. So if the Mortgage Bankers Association tracks the number of people that apply for loans, if you went back to December when mortgage rates dipped just a little bit, we saw a run up of loan applications, and as soon as they went back up to seven, we saw that number fall off. It's a very, very rate sensitive market. We'll talk a little bit about some of the implications of that as we move ahead, Keith. But the weak affordability, the higher interest rates, the continuing high home prices led to a very, very weak year in 2023. In terms of overall home sales, we ended the year with about 3.9 million existing homes sold. That's the lowest number of homes sold in a year in a quarter century. Yeah, even lower than we saw in the Great Recession. And December was the 28th consecutive month where we sold fewer properties than we sold the year before.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:12:39) - So a contraction in the number of sales, although prices appreciated last year.

 

Rick Sharga (00:12:44) - Yeah, we'll talk about that this year. I'd been hopeful that we'd be a little bit of a better start. January and February were both up in terms of home sales on a month over month basis, but continued this trend of lower sales on a year over year basis. We're looking at 30 consecutive months where we sold fewer properties than we sold the prior year. As a result of this.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:13:05) - Supply crash, that really began about four years ago.

 

Rick Sharga (00:13:08) - It's partly supplied as partly costs, that affordability. We really can't overestimate the impact that affordability has had. But you're right in terms of inventory and in fact, a good segue, it's almost like you'd seen this before, Keith. Inventory is up significantly from last year, about 24% higher than it was a year ago, according to some data from Altos Research. But it's still only running about half of 2019 levels. So in a normal market, we would have about a six month supply of homes available for sale in our market today, we're looking at somewhere between two and a half and three months supply.

 

Rick Sharga (00:13:44) - That lack of supply with some pent up demand is one of the reasons we have seen prices continue to be very healthy, and we haven't seen the the price crash that all the snake oil salesmen on YouTube comments. As of mid-March, about 513,000 homes available for sale, again, about 24% higher. Than last year when the numbers were just dismal. We normally do see more inventory coming to market this time of year. We'll not get anywhere near where we were back in, you know, years like 2019, 2020. But it wouldn't be a surprise to see a little bit more inventory coming to market.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:14:21) - Now, Rick, for existing properties, we have the very well documented interest rate lock in effect. I think a lot of people understand that. But as far as bringing more supply onto the market, do you see anything from the builder side? You know, costs are up for builders and builders feel this lack of affordability from the buyer market as well. So therefore that motivates them to build somewhat less.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:14:43) - And they're also building smaller properties, some shrinkflation with new construction property to try to help out with that affordability. So what are your thoughts with builder motivations this year and next year?

 

Rick Sharga (00:14:54) - All that thought is we're going to get to new homes in just a couple of minutes. So keep that right forefront in mind. But let's just kind of wrap up on existing sales. I do want to point out to your listeners that the inventory growth is actually outpacing the number of new listings. So new listings are only up about 14% year over year, whereas overall inventory is up 24%. The reason for that is it's taking longer to sell homes once they get to market. So once those properties are listed, they're staying in the inventory numbers a little bit longer than they were last year or even a few months ago. So that's one of the reasons the inventory numbers look a little bit better than they did. You talked about the rate lock effect. It's still very real. About two thirds of everybody with a mortgage has a mortgage rate of 4% or less.

 

Rick Sharga (00:15:43) - And this is not home sellers being picky or having a psychological problem. This is math. If you sell a property today and buy a new one for exactly the same price as the one you just sold, you've now doubled your monthly mortgage payment and most people simply can't afford to do that. So the properties being listed or by by people who feel like they need to sell, there's a death in the family or a birth in the family. There's a divorce or there's a marriage. There's a job loss or job that requires a transfer, maybe some financial difficulties where the borrowers in distress so they feel like they have to sell the home, or somebody's been retired for a long time, has a lot of equity, and just says, oh the heck with it. It's time for me to downsize. But the people who would normally be making a decision that maybe I'd like to sell, maybe I'd like to look at a move up opportunity. Those people are sitting on the sidelines and rather than seeing a price crash, which is what people are breathlessly trying to sell you on YouTube, the most likely scenario, something we've seen play out in the 80s and 90s and is likely to play out again in the 2020s, which is several years of kind of lackluster sales volume and modest price growth.

 

Rick Sharga (00:16:54) - And it takes a few years to reset the levels so that all those people with the Sub4 mortgages gradually, slowly work their way out of inventory and are replaced by people with mortgages that are closer to today's rates. And we've seen that happen, like I said, in the 80s and 90s, and it's a very normal occurrence when you have a sudden shift in either mortgage rates or home prices, that's much more likely to happen than a 2030 40% drop in home prices to make things affordable. And I would just ask anybody who's skeptical, if somebody approached you tomorrow and you didn't have to sell, but they said, hey, sell me your house for 40% less than market value. How interested would you be in having that conversation?

 

Keith Weinhold (00:17:36) - Wouldn't last long.

 

Rick Sharga (00:17:37) - No. And then home prices are up in every region. You mentioned this, Keith. Across the country I'm sharing for people that can see it. I'm sharing data from the Fhfa, which is the entity that controls Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. So all of those 30 year fixed rate conventional loans and a year over year basis, we saw prices go up 6.3%.

 

Rick Sharga (00:17:56) - They were up in every region of the country. And that's a little different than the prior year when the Pacific region was actually down. But every region of the country is seeing price growth right now. And whichever price index you look at Case-Shiller,, Freddie Mac, the Fhfa index, National Association of Realtors, everybody showed similar numbers were every region was up. But importantly for your listeners and I emphasize this enough, local results are very different than national results. So even within markets where we're seeing prices go up, there are going to be neighborhoods where prices are going down and vice versa. So it's much more important for you to understand what's going on in your local market than to listen to a lot of these national trends. I will tell you that some of the markets that overheated during the pandemic, as people were moving out of high priced, high tax or highly congested areas, are seeing a bit of a clawback. So places like Boise, Idaho and Saint George's, Utah and Austin and Phoenix and Las Vegas, we're seeing those markets with the prices clawing back a little bit, a lot of price growth continuing the southeast.

 

Rick Sharga (00:19:04) - So and surprisingly now in the Midwest as well. So we are still seeing a bit of a migration from high price, high tax areas into lower priced markets. I tell folks, Keith, I have two adult kids living at home. My son's getting married in September. He's a teacher. His fiance is a lawyer, and they took me aside recently and said, hey, you follow this stuff. What states should we be looking at outside of California to move so that we can own a house?

 

Keith Weinhold (00:19:31) - Wow, that is really, really interesting that that would dictate their decision on where they live, if they have that much of a preference to own rather than rent. Recently, a lot of us in the industry learned that the average age of the first time homebuyer is now 36, older than ever.

 

Rick Sharga (00:19:48) - Yep. And these are two kids with good heads on their shoulders. They know there are benefits to homeownership, and they also know that the median price of a home sold in California last month was almost $800,000, and the First National Bank of dad ain't financing that acquisition.

 

Rick Sharga (00:20:02) - So I'm sure these conversations are happening in New York, in Chicago, in Miami and in San Francisco, and it's just the reality of today's marketplace. We talked about prices going up. We are seeing slightly more homes having a price reduction before they're sold. That always happens somewhere along the lines of 30 to 35% of homes listed wind up with a price reduction before they're sold. We're up to about 31% now, so we're still in the normal range, but we're a little higher than we've been in recent months.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:20:35) - This is interesting, a statistic we don't talk about very much, the percent of homes experiencing list price reductions.

 

Rick Sharga (00:20:42) - And it peaked in 2022. The highest number we've seen in quite a while was over 40%. And that was right after interest rates doubled. And so it's probably not a huge surprise. People were anticipating they were pricing based on the prior market. And I think we're seeing more rational pricing today. But again, that combination of prices just being as high as they are and interest rates being as high as they are, are creating some affordability issues.

 

Rick Sharga (00:21:05) - And for people that have to sell, they're taking price reductions. Now, keep in mind these price reductions are often very, very minimal. In California, for example, the average price reduction is less than a percent. So it's not a huge reduction, but it's still a reduction from what the list price was. You asked about new homes. So now I'm going to make you happy. We'll talk about new homes. New home inventory levels are increasing. We normally want to see about a six month supply of existing homes for sale. The new home inventory is usually between 7 and 8 months. And we're back to that number right now. Some of those homes available for sale are still under construction, but they are nonetheless available for sale. And we've seen that inventory improve over the last year as supply chain disruptions have minimized as builders are now more able to find laborers for construction. Those are two huge holdups they had over the last couple of years, and we've seen new home sales increase. And one of the reasons for that is they're available.

 

Rick Sharga (00:22:05) - So if you're a builder and you put a home in the market at the right price, you're going to sell it because there just aren't that many existing homes available for sale. And to your other point, Keith, new home prices are actually down 15% from peak. Existing home prices are up, new home prices are down. And in fact, if you look at the most recent new home pricing data put up by the Census Bureau recently, new home prices are at the lowest level since June of 2021. So they've really come down pretty significantly and are not that far away from existing home prices in many markets. So that median price of an existing home and the median price of a new home for sale are closer than they've been in years, partly because the builders are building smaller homes, partly because you're using less expensive fixtures. And the other thing that the builders have been doing, and this price is a lot of people, but it's brilliant on their part, is they're coming to closing with thousands of dollars and they're paying down mortgage rates.

 

Rick Sharga (00:23:01) - They're buying points and dropping the mortgage rate for their buyers. I spoke to a group in Denver recently where there was a local builder advertising mortgage rates of 4.99%. So think about that.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:23:13) - We have providers we work with here that are doing similar things. We're still seeing the rate buy downs happening, and that's why I've often told people, Rick, like, this is potentially a good time in the cycle when you're adding more rental property to really look at new builds or build to rent while these rate buy downs last. Now, I talked to a builder in Houston yesterday, and I learned a few interesting things. You talked about the smaller square footages. They could confirm that often times this builder offers either a bedroom or a study. You can get an extra bedroom or a study like a little office space. And more and more people are opting for the study. So they're starting to build homes more with the study in mind because more people are working from home and one less bedroom because people are having fewer children.

 

Rick Sharga (00:23:57) - Exactly right. It's the combination of both of those two things, either having fewer children or having them later. And many more people working from home than they were prior to the pandemic. And those studies become very, very useful., rooms to have in the house. Rick, what.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:24:12) - Is the lowest cost, new build, single family home that you see? I mean, is anyone even building in any parts of the nation, like a 225 K new build home? I haven't seen one.

 

Rick Sharga (00:24:26) - I haven't seen one. But I wouldn't be surprised if you're in a market in a state like Alabama or Mississippi and some of the more outlying areas, maybe some markets in the Midwest where home prices aren't as astronomical as they are elsewhere. But look, the builders are building judiciously. They're not overbuilding., we had a cycle in 2008 where we had a 13 month supply of homes available for sale and building Irish building. They got caught with overstock. But what they are building, they tend to build as move up homes because they're more profitable.

 

Rick Sharga (00:24:58) - So you're just not seeing an awful lot of entry level homes being built. And the hope is that as they build that first move up level home, some of the people with entry level homes will opt to sell and bring some of that inventory back to market. We are seeing more construction. We are seeing building permits,, going up on a year over year basis., most recent numbers are around 1.5 million permits. So the builders are bullish on the future. And housing starts were up in both January and February. Most importantly they're up most strongly in single family owner occupied homes. We're seeing housing starts to decline dramatically in terms of multifamily starts, right. But that's because there's about a million new apartment units coming online between last year and this year. And we don't need a whole lot more apartments., we need,, more single family homes. So if your listeners are seeing headlines talking about housing starts being lower, it's really because we're seeing fewer multifamily starts.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:25:54) - Last year was a big year for multifamily construction.

 

Rick Sharga (00:25:57) - All time high in terms of multifamily units under construction. And a lot of those are still coming to market this year. There are going to be some markets that are actually still oversupplied. So again, you have to be paying very close attention. When we talk a little bit about the rental market in the apartment category, we have seen apartment rents decline year over year in pretty much all categories. Whether you're looking at studio apartments, one bedroom apartments, two better apartments on a year over year basis, rents are actually in negative territory, according to Realtor.com and according to some data I've recently seen from RealPage. If you're looking at the actual price of rent and I know that's a little different than percentage increases or decreases, you're still seeing that rents about it's below peak. It's about 1.6% below the peak we hit in 2022,, when vacancy rates were just about nothing. But we are still below peak, and the median rent is ranging,, somewhere in the neighborhood of $1,700 a year for apartments, single family homes, which I suspect more of your listeners are actually,, renting out than apartments.

 

Rick Sharga (00:27:03) - Yes. Are doing better. We're seeing year over year rents continue to grow. They're growing modestly. They have not gone into negative territory, and they haven't,, during this boom and bust cycle that we've seen in the housing market. And if you're looking at,, price gains, according to some recent data from CoreLogic, if you're at the higher end of the single family rental market, prices are up about 3% year over year. At the low end, they're up about 2.9%. So very little difference depending on your price tier and also very little difference depending on whether you're looking at an attached single family residence or,, detached family single family residence. All those are up right around 3% year over year. And that's a good sign. Again, you're dealing with a as your your listeners know, you're dealing with a slightly different tenant in a single family home than you are in a, an apartment. And a lot of these people who would have been buyers or opting to rent stands to reason that,, they'd rather rent a house, particularly if it's in a good school district or in a good neighborhood than an apartment, because they have needs.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:28:06) - Rents are extremely stable historically. They just sort of plod up slowly. What happened about two years ago, three years ago, with that 15% plus rent increase, that's an aberration.

 

Rick Sharga (00:28:19) - Yeah, that's a good point, Keith. If we're looking at 3% rental growth year over year right now in the single family rental market that tracks with historic normals, usually you're somewhere between 1 and 5% a year. So threes, you know, smack dab in the middle of all that. And the growth rates also vary wildly by markets., just kind of give you a range if you're looking at a single family rental property in Honolulu, in the city, year over year, you're up about 6%. If you're looking at a unit in Miami, Florida, you're down about 2.5%.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:28:50) - So rental growth rates.

 

Rick Sharga (00:28:52) - Rental growth rates. So really just depends on where you are. That's pretty much your range from a couple points down to I think Honolulu actually had the largest,, increase in the CoreLogic study. A lot of your listeners are probably interested in buying foreclosure properties.

 

Rick Sharga (00:29:07) - We're not seeing a lot of foreclosure activity. Still, we are starting to see a little weakness in consumers. When we met last week, we talked a little bit about the strength of consumer spending, but we also talked about increasing amounts of spending on credit cards. And we're seeing consumer delinquency rates increase in pretty much every aspect of consumer lending, whether it's a loan, whether it's a credit card debt, whether it's an auto loan, whether it's a home equity line of credit, whether it's a mortgage, a mortgage, delinquencies are up a little bit. The only category we're not seeing an increase in delinquencies right now is student loans. And my theory on that is that people have only recently had to start making payments again on student loans, and we don't have any data to show that they're going delinquent yet. But the delinquency numbers we need to take with a grain of salt, because many of them are most of them are early stage delinquency. So somebody missed a payment, but then they catch up before they get 60 or 90 days delinquent.

 

Rick Sharga (00:30:02) - But we are seeing trends that suggest more delinquencies. And if you have more delinquencies, that leads to more foreclosures. Mortgage delinquency rates, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association, went up to about 3.8% in the fourth quarter, the historic average going back to the 1970s, which is as far back as the NBA goes, is about 5.25%. So we're still way below normal levels of delinquencies. As I mentioned, most of those are early stage delinquencies, and they're being resolved before they get more serious. Because of that, we don't have a lot of foreclosure activity. So this is no longer Keith government intervention. It's no longer government forbearance programs and foreclosure moratoriums. It's the fact that the economy's been so strong. Unemployment rates have a very strong correlation to mortgage delinquency rates. We got together last time I mentioned the unemployment rate was at 3.9%. I just told you that word delinquencies are at 3.8. Can't get much closer than that. And because of that, foreclosure activity is still down almost 30% from where we were in 2019 prior to the pandemic.

 

Rick Sharga (00:31:07) - And I should point out, the 2019 wasn't a particularly big year for foreclosures either. So I don't see us getting back to pre-pandemic levels of foreclosure activity until sometime next year. And what's important for people in this space to understand is that even though we're seeing roughly the same number of delinquencies that we saw back in 2019, fewer of those delinquent loans are going into foreclosure. Fewer of those foreclosures are getting as far as the auction, and even fewer of those are going back to the banks as REO properties or bank owned properties.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:31:40) - Delinquency occurs before foreclosure. We have low levels of both, and I would imagine that one substantial reason for that are these low fixed rate payments that so many people have. Minutes ago, you showed us that 90% of those with a mortgage have a rate in the fives or less. And then oftentimes when we talk about these sorts of things, we don't even consider the fact that more than 4 in 10 homeowners are free and clear. They don't have any mortgage at all. So it's difficult for people to get in trouble.

 

Rick Sharga (00:32:10) - Yeah. And when they do get in trouble, what's really a saving grace for a lot of these people? And I believe the reason we're seeing fewer foreclosure auctions and bank repossessions is that there's $31 trillion in homeowner equity in the market, and 90% of borrowers in foreclosure have positive equity. A huge percentage of those have at least 20% equity. So what's happening interesting is that many, many of these borrowers are protecting their equity by selling their home before the foreclosure sale. If they get to foreclosure sale, they run the risk of losing all their equity, or at least the overwhelming majority of their equity.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:32:48) - That's a great point with how this really works.

 

Rick Sharga (00:32:50) - And so if you're looking to buy a distressed property, if you're looking to buy a foreclosure property, you really need to be working directly with the homeowner in the earliest stages of foreclosure rather than waiting for the auction. And certainly rather than waiting for the bank to repossess the home and resell it. And some recent data from a friend of mine@auction.com tracking some numbers from Adam Data.

 

Rick Sharga (00:33:15) - 55% of the distressed properties that were sold through from June through to September of last year were sold in that pre foreclosure period prior to the foreclosure auction. That's wildly different than we've been in in years past. So really important for anybody looking to buy distressed property, to consider moving upstream and working directly with that homeowner. And it's a win win. You can help that homeowner protect their equity, have some cash to make a fresh start with and, and typically buy a home in pretty good condition and a home that you need to be part of your rental portfolio. So just kind of recapping some of the stuff we talked about, Keith, both today and last week, I still think that from an economic standpoint, there's still at least a good possibility we might have a short, mild recession sometime later this year. I don't see unemployment going much higher than 5%. Even if we do have a recession, if we don't have a recession, we'll only see the economy slowed down a bit. It might be hard to tell the difference.

 

Rick Sharga (00:34:10) - I'm expecting the volume of home sales to go up. I think we bottomed out in 2023, but not by a lot. Maybe we see a 10% lift over last year, which would take us to roughly 4.4 million existing homes. I wouldn't be surprised to see 700,000 new homes sold, really just depends on how quickly builders bring inventory to market. But if I'm right and mortgage rates go down slowly over the second half of this year, we'll see more home buyers come to market more quickly than sellers. We don't see a lot of sellers come to market until we get interest rates down to about 5.5% or lower, which probably won't happen until 2025. So more buyers coming to market than sellers means the prices will continue to go up. We continue to see investors account for 25 to 30% of all residential purchases. So I think we'll continue to see a higher rate, partly because investors are active, partly because a lot of consumers are waiting for market conditions to improve, but that limited affordability in today's market conditions, I really do think means more demand for rental units.

 

Rick Sharga (00:35:14) - And I think foreclosure activity stays below normal levels for the rest of this year, and REO inventory bank repossessions are going to remain even lower for even longer. I don't think we see REO activity come back to more normal levels for at least a couple of years, so anybody looking to buy these properties really does need to be moving upstream in order to make those purchases.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:35:34) - Yeah, with low affordability, hence more demand for rentals. I've already noticed that the homeownership rate, which is somewhat of a trailing number here, has already fallen from 66% to 65.7%. And with low affordability, it seems that that homeownership rate could fall even more, meaning the rate of renters would be higher.

 

Rick Sharga (00:35:54) - A friend of mine always complains that the government's somehow beside behind all of these trends, one way or the other, and and wonders why, with all the government programs aimed at increasing homeownership, we haven't seen that homeownership rate increase much. And I think sometimes things said to the natural level and our homeownership rate, really for the last 30 years, has been somewhere between 64% and 66%.

 

Rick Sharga (00:36:19) - And that might just be what the natural level for homeownership is in the United States. Will it dip a little bit as people can't afford to buy a house? Probably. Probably will. When market conditions improve for buyers, will it go up a little bit? Probably. But we hit 70% homeownership back in 2006. And it turned out that was the bad number and that not everybody's ready financially for the kind of commitment that homeownership requires. And so I've always said that the key isn't getting everybody into a home. It's the sustainability of homeownership for people that that we do get into that house. One of the best days of your life is when you get the key to that house, and it has to be one of the worst days if you have to give it back. So I hope we all keep that in mind as we move forward.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:37:03) - That's right. Government incentives is in the past saying there's a $10,000 first time homebuyer tax credit. Oh, we're not in an era where we need help. On the demand side, all you're doing is driving up prices.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:37:14) - And I don't know that you're helping out anybody in that case. But I think with really overall, one big takeaway here, Rick, is that if you the listener, if you're waiting for prices to drop substantially sometime or for interest rates to drop substantially sometime, that might not be worth the wait. You could be waiting a long time.

 

Rick Sharga (00:37:32) - I do expect mortgage rates will decline. I don't really go back to the sub for rates we saw a few years ago, but they're going to decline slowly and they may not decline enough to offset rising home prices. I mean, you have to get your calculator out and and figure out how that math works for you. But you're absolutely right, Keith. And I tell people today, even with mortgage rates being where they are, if you find a house you love or you find a house that's a good investment and you pencil it out and the numbers work, don't wait because the opportunity costs can be severe and you could wind up missing out on a property that could either be a good cash flow unit for you on rental, or it could be a property that you wind up living in for the next 30 years.

 

Rick Sharga (00:38:13) - So don't be afraid of today's market. Just be very prudent and judicious in the way you approach it.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:38:19) - Well, Rick, get resuscitation of followers and the nation have been a beneficiary of your housing market intelligence expertise for quite a while now. If someone wants to engage with you in the CJ Patrick Company, who are those types of people and how could you help?

 

Rick Sharga (00:38:36) - I appreciate the opportunity. Most of the companies I work with or companies that provide services to lenders, anybody who has a business that's in the real estate or financial services markets, who would benefit from my coming in to share with them industry data, or has data themselves that they would like to get out into the marketplace? Anything data related really, I tend to specialize in. So market updates and market overviews and market. Analysis or things that I do on a pretty much daily basis for companies.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:39:07) - How can they engage with you?

 

Rick Sharga (00:39:08) - They can find our website, which is C.J. patrick.com. They can find me on Twitter. I hide there under my name, Rick, or reach out to me on LinkedIn.

 

Rick Sharga (00:39:17) - And if you reach out to me on on a social media channel, make sure that you mention you know me through Keith, and you're not some crazy Russian bot trying to hack into my personal information.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:39:27) - Well, then, Rick, it's been great having you back on the show.

 

Rick Sharga (00:39:30) - I'm sure we'll do it again sometime soon. Thanks for having me.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:39:39) - Yeah, terrific Intel there. In this episode, Rick said that to still expect a lower amount of sales going forward and expect modest property price appreciation. Every region of the nation is seeing price growth now. And by the way, you remember that late last year, I unveiled Gray's home price appreciation forecast for this year, stating that prices should rise 4% and here in Q2, I still like how that looks. There is not much distress with current homeowners, but if you're looking to scoop up a foreclosed property cheap, you better get aggressive and work directly with the homeowner in the earliest stages of foreclosure. Don't wait for that property to go to auction. Rick also said more demand for rental units is coming, and I encourage you to engage with Rick.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:40:30) - Let him know you heard about him through me. If you want to go deeper and engage with some of the services that he offers, perhaps you work for a real estate company or a demographic company. You can do that at C.J. patrick.com. But most of you, the listener is an individual investor. So check him out on X where his handle is Rick Sharga. He is Rick Sharga on LinkedIn. Big thanks to Rick Sharga today. Until next week I'm your host, Keith Wild. Don't quit your daydream.

 

Speaker 5 (00:41:04) - Nothing on this show should be considered specific, personal or professional advice. Please consult an appropriate tax, legal, real estate, financial or business professional for individualized advice. Opinions of guests are their own. Information is not guaranteed. All investment strategies have the potential for profit or loss. The host is operating on behalf of get Rich education LLC exclusively.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:41:32) - The preceding program was brought to you by your home for wealth building. Get rich education.com.




Direct download: GREepisode496_.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 4:00am EDT

Get our free real estate course and newsletter: GRE Letter

Our core formula here at GRE is simple, buy-and-hold real estate. Then where does your profit come from? I explain.

Where will your next tenant come from? Essentially, market intelligence analyst Rick Sharga & I answer this today.

We explore job growth, wage growth, and the condition of today’s consumer / tenant. 

Rick Sharga doesn’t believe that mortgage rates will fall substantially until the Fed Funds Rate does. This isn’t likely to happen until at least June.

Consumers are exhibiting some distress signals. Credit card debt has swelled. We break it down.

Many economic indicators still show that they’ll still be an economic slowdown. 

In most recessions, home sales and home prices both rise.

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Complete episode transcript:

 

Keith Weinhold (00:00:00) - Welcome to gray. I'm your host, Keith Weinhold. We aren't fooling around on April Fool's Day. How can you be assured of having rent paying tenants in the future? That's dictated by the economy, job growth and real wage growth above inflation. Well, how exactly does all that relate to the housing market? We break it down today with an expert guest on Get Rich Education. When you want the best real estate and finance info, the modern internet experience limits your free articles access, and it's replete with paywalls. And you've got pop ups and push notifications and cookies. Disclaimers are. At no other time in history has it been more vital to place nice, clean, free content into your hands that actually adds no hype value to your life? See, this is the golden age of quality newsletters, and I write every word of ours myself. It's got a dash of humor and it's to the point to get the letter. It couldn't be more simple. Text GRE to 66866. And when you start the free newsletter, you'll also get my one hour fast real estate course completely free.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:01:16) - It's called the Don't Quit Your Daydream letter and it wires your mind for wealth. Make sure you read it. Text GRE to 66866. Text GRE to 66866.

 

Corey Coates (00:01:33) - You're listening to the show that has created more financial freedom than nearly any show in the world. This is get rich education.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:01:49) - What category? You're listening to one of America's longest running in most listened to shows on real estate investing, the Voice of Real Estate since 2014. This is get rich education. I'm your host. My name is Keith Weinhold, and you probably know that by now. But what we never truly know is the direction of the economy and how it shapes the housing market. Well, an expert and I are putting our heads together for you today to give you the best indication that we possibly can. I'll be with us shortly. And he is coming, armed with all of his best indicators and statistics. Last week here on the show, I got somewhat philosophical with you at times when I posited the question, do you want to retire? And I helped answer the question, what is retirement today anyway? I had a lot of good feedback on that show, but today we're talking about more concrete indicators with some numbers.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:02:50) - For example, historically in a recession, what really happens to real estate prices? We're going to answer that and more questions like it today. Now, I like to say that wealthy people's money either starts out in real estate or ends up in real estate, but there are so many ways to do it, so many ways to do real estate right? Hence so many ways to do it wrong as well. Our formula that we use here at GRE more than any other, is something we use because it is so simple that I think some people overlook it. It is buy and hold. Yeah, mostly long term buy and hold residential rentals. Now, we sure talk about some other things too, but that's really a cheap formula, something that we focused on since day one here. Now there surely can be some other good strategies as long as you execute, right? Flipping, wholesaling, Oreos, the birth strategy, self-storage units, RV parks and a lot more. But with buy and hold, I think some people know the real estate.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:03:58) - They might then ask, well, well where's your margin on that? Where does your profit come from if you just buy and hold? Or they might even think that that strategy is really slow and a 40 year game plan. Well, then they learn about the five ways and that changes that. It's largely about buying strategically and then managing your manager. I think most people dream of a life where they can just spend their time remotely managing their investments here and there. Now, for me, most months, I don't have anything to do with managing a property manager in a certain market. I just get the cash flow and then I do browse the monthly property statement. Some months had only been do that because from the amount of cash flow received, I can often see that nothing really went wrong for the month because from the amount of cash flow received, I can often see that nothing really went wrong for the month. Tax benefits as one of the five ways you're paid. That takes some management to and you know this tax time of year with my bookkeeper.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:05:11) - At times she emails me and asks me for this and that scrap of information. The mindset that helped me manage all the generous tax benefits of real estate is not taking my bookkeepers questions as an occasional annoyance, but rather taking the mindset of tax benefits or something that you can manage throughout the year. And that way when my bookkeeper goes an entire month without asking me for something, it can feel like a short break. Sort of like something was turned off for a month. And hey, first world problems, right? Downloading a document and emailing it to your bookkeeper ten minutes a month., today is also talking about where your next tenant is coming from, which really, at the end of the day, is what a real estate economics discussion is about. Well, it's also about giving tenants the housing that they want, meeting their desired lifestyle and the set of amenities that are both going to attract your renter in the first place and then retain your renter over the long term every year. Building,, the property management software company, they ask thousands of renters which amenities and property layouts would motivate them to choose one rental property over another.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:06:33) - That's what they're asking tenants. And what you imagine that renters might want could be different from the reality. For years now, renters are prioritizing their neighborhood quality. In the amenities that are actually inside the rental unit. Those things are more important than they are the shared community amenities like a pool, lobby, clubhouse or gym. Renters are gravitating toward neighborhoods that are safe and quiet, but yet are still convenient to stores and restaurants. And that led to half of the renters surveyed to rental properties that are located in the suburbs. Now, when it comes to the amenities within their rental unit that they're prioritizing, renters want a space with kind of all those comforts of home air conditioning and a washer and dryer to the option to own a pet. And these are the feature types of single family rentals, although some newer apartments can meet that too. And some condos community amenities. Then like a fitness center or a pool. I mean, they still hold some appeal to residents in these surveys, but lately they're seen more merely as perks instead of necessities for today's cost conscious renters.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:07:55) - So the bottom line here with this survey is that it's what's actually inside the unit that's become more important. And maybe that's a little too bad as people tend to get less social. They're using community areas less, they're prioritizing them less. And hey, maybe they just want to lie on the sofa and scroll their phone in a nice, comfortable place. Hey, you've got a suit and fit the world as it is, not as the way that you wanted to be, at least when you're providing others with housing. Hey, coming up here both on the show and on our YouTube channel, why do Western US homes cost more than eastern US homes on average? This seems geographically paradoxical. It feels backwards to a lot of people, because almost two thirds of the United States lives east of the Mississippi River, and yet that area comprises just over one third of all the land. You've got almost two thirds of people living on just over one third of all the land in the East. So to some more people on less area, oh, that would have to mean that eastern home prices are more costly.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:09:09) - No, it is exactly the opposite. In fact, coming up on a future show, I'll share eight plus reasons why. This is why Western US homes cost more than eastern ones. And this is also why many of the best cash flow markets, they tend to be in the eastern half of the US. They have those lower purchase prices also coming up in the future. I'm about to have a talk. This talk isn't going to be on the show here, but a talk with a conventional financial advisor about my own personal retirement. I've got an appointment with this person and this ought to be interesting. We'll see what he says about my situation. I'll try not to lecture him on how financially free beats debt free or anything like that. We'll see if I can hold off doing that. And if that meeting produces some interesting takeaways or just humorous ones, I'm going to share that with you in the future. And if you want to be sure to hear those upcoming episodes on subjects like that, I invite you to follow the show here on your favorite podcast.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:10:17) - And that way you won't miss any upcoming episodes. I only met today's guest about two years ago. We enjoyed that conversation and now we collaborate regularly. He helps provide crucial market updates that straight ahead. I'm Keith Reinhold, you're listening to episode 495 of get Rich education. You know, I'll just tell you, for the most passive part of my real estate investing, personally, I put my own dollars with Freedom Family Investments because their funds pay me a stream of regular cash flow in returns, or better than a bank savings account up to 12%. Their minimums are as low as 25 K. You don't even need to be accredited for some of them. It's all backed by real estate. And I kind of love how the tax benefit of doing this can offset capital gains and your W-2 jobs income. And they've always given me exactly their stated return paid on time. So it's steady income, no surprises while I'm sleeping or just doing the things I love. For a little insider tip, I've invested in their power fund to get going on that text family to 66866.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:11:31) - Oh, and this isn't a solicitation. If you want to invest where I do, just go ahead and text family to six, 686, six. Role under the specific expert with income property you need. Ridge lending Group Nmls 42056. In gray history from beginners to veterans, they provided our listeners with more mortgages than anyone. It's where I get my own loans for single family rentals up to four Plex's. Start your pre-qualification and chat with President Charlie Ridge personally. They'll even customize a plan tailored to you for growing your portfolio. Start at Ridge Lending group.com Ridge lending group.com. This is Rich dad advisor Tom Wheelwright. Listen to get Rich education with Keith Reinhold and don't quit your daydream. You are going to get a fantastic real estate market update today, and you'll also learn lessons if you're consuming this 5 or 10 years from now. Our expert guest has been the executive VP of markets. Some of America's leading housing intelligence firms named it national lists of most influential real estate leaders. He's frequently quoted on real estate, mortgage and foreclosure markets, too.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:12:59) - He runs the real estate market intelligence firm, the C.J. Patrick Company. Hey, welcome back to Great Rick Saga. Always a pleasure to spend some time with you, Keith. Thank you for having me. Oh, same here, because, Rick, you've been with us here every six months for about two years now. You and I discussed the condition of the overall economy as well as the real estate market. I think of both of those as resilient today. Now, back when I was a new real estate investor, Rick, I didn't know to look at the broad economy at all. I was more concerned with if, say, on a vacant unit that I had, I had the drywall texture just right to try to attract a new tenant ASAP. Now that surely matters. But time gave me the perspective to know that what matters more is to have a local stable of tenants that are capable of paying the rent, and that's what matters more. So with that in mind, where would you like to begin? That's great counsel.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:14:03) - And it's really important for investors or even somebody looking to buy a house, understand what's going on economically, both across the country and in their region. So why don't we start by taking a look at what's going on in the economy? There's been a lot of conversation about potential recession. We can talk a bit about that, but if you're good to go, we'll start by just sharing some information about the US economy and some of the trends that we're seeing. Yeah, let's go ahead and do that. And yes, that dreaded our word may very well come up. That thing that we've all been waiting for but has never happened. Don't count your chickens just yet. But let's see what's going on. Because on average, recessions do happen every five years. It's just a normal part of the business cycle. Yeah, that's important to keep in context. I'm glad you brought that up. Recessions are a normal part of the business cycle and the economic cycle. We may be slightly overdue to have one at this point, although the last one that we had took very, very long to recover from, the Great Recession that started back in 2008 took a full decade to recover from, which is also very unusual.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:15:05) - So we'll take a look at some of these cycles and see where we are today. Keith, the basic metric that most economists look at when they're trying to figure out the strength of the US economy is is something called the gross domestic product, the GDP.

 

Rick Sharga (00:15:18) - We track that to see if it's growing, if it's declining. The technical definition of a recession is two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth. And there's been a lot of talk about the GDP slowing down in the US. But really it's been mostly talk. In fact, if you look at the last quarter, we have data four, which was the fourth quarter of last year. You can see that the GDP grew by 3.2 3.3%, which was a much higher number than what most economists had forecast.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:15:47) - That resilient economy with a low unemployment rate, jobs being added and productive growth in the GDP.

 

Rick Sharga (00:15:54) - Yeah, we're going to get to all of that. And it's a great point. If you look at what makes up the GDP, about two thirds of it is comprised of consumer spending, right.

 

Rick Sharga (00:16:04) - So typically when you see strong GDP numbers, you're consumer is doing pretty well. And a lot of this probably has to do with consumers still having money to spend from the enormous amount of stimulus that the federal government poured into the economy to help prevent a recession or depression during Covid. About $15 trillion in all of the stimulus that was sent out to consumers and businesses alike. And that's probably helped us weather the storm of what normally might have been a slowdown in the economy. We are, however, Keith, in a globally interconnected economy, and it's important to note that not all of our peers are doing quite as well. Canada may already be in a recession. The UK is almost certainly in a recession. The eurozone barely escaped going into recessionary numbers in the last quarter, and even markets like China aren't doing as well as as expected. And I'm not saying that to gloat about how well the US is doing. I'm saying that is sort of a warning that if we do get into a situation where it looks like there's a global recession going on, it's very unlikely the US will come out of that untainted at all.

 

Rick Sharga (00:17:09) - So it's something to keep an eye on as we move forward.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:17:11) - Right. 100%.

 

Rick Sharga (00:17:13) - You mentioned unemployment a couple of minutes ago, Keith, and that's one of the other economic metrics we check. Unemployment went all the way up. And I say that facetiously. The 3.9% in the numbers, full employment is considered to be anywhere at 5% unemployment or lower. And we haven't been at 5% unemployment. Probably since about 2016, with the exception of the blip we had during the Covid pandemic, when the government shut things down and we had a huge increase in unemployment temporarily. But we are continuing to see very, very strong job numbers, both in terms of these low levels of unemployment and in terms of job growth. The January and February numbers again caught the economists who come up with these consensus forecasts by surprise. In January, about 350,000 jobs created. In February, about 250,000 jobs created. I should put an asterisk on some of these numbers. When you hear politicians talking about all the jobs they've created over the last few years.

 

Rick Sharga (00:18:15) - Keep in mind that during the Covid pandemic, we wiped out about 22 million jobs virtually overnight. A lot of the millions of jobs that have been created over the last few years were really those old jobs being refilled. We filled most of those within about two years, and we have continued to create jobs since then. We have more jobs than we have people looking for work. They're about 8.5 million jobs open, about 6 to 6.5 million people looking for work.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:18:43) - You can almost think that this is an over employed condition.

 

Rick Sharga (00:18:46) - And it almost is in most cases, not all cases, but in most cases, somebody who doesn't have a job right now just isn't looking for a job right now. And these are not all service level jobs. That's the other pushback I get when I'm out talking to groups sometimes. Oh yeah, but not everybody wants to work at Starbucks. Well, first of all, you get pretty good benefits of Starbucks free coffee healthcare. But let's not do a Starbucks commercial. These are government jobs.

 

Rick Sharga (00:19:10) - They're manufacturing jobs. They're construction jobs. They are some type of service level jobs. But these are jobs across the board. And because there are more jobs available than people are looking for work, we're seeing wages go up. The average hourly wage across the country last month was over $29 an hour, which is the highest it's ever been. And if you look at wage growth on a year over year basis, it's running at about 5%. And really, Keith, this is the first time in a number of years that we can say with certainty that wage growth is actually running at a higher pace than the rate of inflation, right.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:19:44) - And that really matters. That really helps pay the rent. One thing that detractors say with the unemployment rate, you talked about them not necessarily being consolidated in the low paid service sector area, is that a lot of people lament, well, aren't many of these part time jobs? Where are your thoughts there?

 

Rick Sharga (00:20:01) - There are a probably historically large number of part time jobs, but we also have an awful lot of people who have opted out of full time work for a variety of reasons, and are thrilled to be able to pick up some money working in the gig economy.

 

Rick Sharga (00:20:16) - So whether they're driving for Uber or Lyft, they're doing DoorDash or something else that's a part time job that they're doing just to either, in some cases, kill time or to make a little bit of extra money. This isn't an economy where the majority of part time workers are in part time jobs, because they can't find a full time job. That's simply not the case, and the data doesn't support that.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:20:41) - Now, if you, the listener and viewer here are wondering, well, this stuff doesn't apply directly to me. I'm good. I'm secure in my job. Maybe I don't even need a job. Keep in mind that we're talking about the financial condition of your tenant today.

 

Rick Sharga (00:20:57) - Yeah. When I'm talking to to real estate investors in general, I know that you were talking about drywall earlier, and sometimes you really can't see the forest for the trees. You're kind of overwhelmed or you're not sure where you should actually be looking. I tell them in many cases, to pay less attention to home prices and rental rates and more attention to some of the underlying fundamental economic conditions.

 

Rick Sharga (00:21:20) - Are you in a market where population is growing or declining? Are you in a market where there's job growth? Are you in a market where there's wage growth? If you're at a market where the population, jobs and wages are all growing, you're going to be in a pretty healthy market for real estate, whether it's owner occupied properties or its rental properties. On the other hand, if jobs are leaving your market, if wages are going down, if population is declining, those are warning signs. And it might be an indication that that's not a good market to start investing more in. So everything we're talking about really does get connected back to the housing market, whether it's rental housing or owner occupied housing. And it's important to see these trends for what they are.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:22:04) - And of course, we're talking about these factors on a national level. As we know, our real estate is local, and our audience is often interested in studying a metro market before they decide to invest there. So on that more regional level, Rick, or local level, do you have any favorite resources or websites or apps that you think are important for prospective investors to look at first within a certain region or MSA? Well, you.

 

Rick Sharga (00:22:33) - Can. Find a lot of local market data on some of the free housing sites that are out there. The Zillow's, the Realtor.com is the homes dot coms of the world. If you go beyond the basic home search, or if you dig deep into some of the information that they provide on local markets, within that home search, you'll find a lot of information there. There are third party companies. There's a company I'm familiar with it that works mostly with realtors, but has a lot of data that investors would probably be interested in. It's called keeping current matters. Yeah, they do an awful lot of reporting on this. But if you really want to do your own research and you don't mind doing a little bit of digging, I find that the Department of Labor and the Census Bureau and the Bureau of Labor Statistics, all government entities, have just copious amounts of local market information. You can find, you know, down to what does the local Pipefitter earn on an hourly basis in Peoria? There's all of that data out there for free on these government sites.

 

Rick Sharga (00:23:34) - You just have to be willing to do a little bit of research and dig through those sites.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:23:39) - Right. And sometimes the government websites don't exactly present their information in a beautiful, graphically rich way. But this is part of your research. Some people don't realize that, Fred, the Federal Reserve economic data has an awful lot of regional and local information, not just national information as well. Well, thanks for sharing some of those resources, Rick, and where you like to go and look, that can really help our audience. What else should a real estate investor know about today's overall economy?

 

Rick Sharga (00:24:08) - So we talked about consumer spending and the reliance our economy does have on consumer spending. And one of the things that I'm watching fairly carefully right now is an apparent disconnect between consumer confidence and consumer spending. So if you go back to when the pandemic hit and the lockdown occurred, consumer spending obviously fell off a cliff. There was just nothing to buy. And consumer confidence took a major hit with the announcement of the pandemic.

 

Rick Sharga (00:24:34) - Consumer spending as soon as the lockdown was over started to come back strongly and has never slowed down. It's hit an all time high today. Consumer confidence, on the other hand, was battered a little bit by subsequent waves of Covid, by threatened government shutdown in Washington, by the war in Ukraine, by the more recent war in the Middle East. And so the concern here is that if consumer confidence doesn't come back, we might see spending revert to the mean. And actually, as economists would say, and come back down, which would cause, at the very least an economic slowdown and at the worst, probably a recession. So it is something we're keeping an eye on. Consumer confidence has been improving a little bit lately, but historically it's gone hand in hand with consumer spending. And that simply hasn't been the case in recent months. So it is something we're keeping an eye on.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:25:25) - Now, one might wonder how do you measure confidence? Well, there are various surveys out there. And Rick, the way I think of it with consumers is that consumer confidence is more of a leading indicator, and then the actual consumption is more of a trailing indicator.

 

Rick Sharga (00:25:42) - I completely agree with you. The sentiment index that I follow most closely is one that's put out by the University of Michigan. Yeah, and it's been out there for decades. So there's an awful lot of history that goes with it. And generally speaking, on any index, you're looking for a number that's around or above 100 because that usually is your baseline. And some of the more recent months we've seen numbers down in the 50s and 60s. Now they've been trending up, as I said, in recent months. But that's something that's reported on very widely by the press. We were talking about sourcing things for investors. And I have to tell you, the just doing a basic Google search for something like, what's consumer confidence like today? You'd be surprised. The rich information that you can pull just from Google, that you can start to find some of these sources online. But that is one thing that we're watching. And, Keith, I think it's important to break out a little bit in more detail how consumers are spending or what they're spending with.

 

Rick Sharga (00:26:44) - And these are potential red flags for the economy, consumer credit card use. The amount of debt on credit cards surpassed $1 trillion in the third quarter of last year for the first time ever, and it got close to 1.2 trillion in the fourth quarter. That's an awful lot of credit card spending. Regardless of what you want to talk to me about, with inflation adjusted dollars, it's still $1 trillion. And that happened at a time when credit card interest rates had soared because of what the Federal Reserve was doing. So you're talking about people spending 1 to $1.2 trillion on their credit cards, when the average interest rate on a new credit card issued was between 25 and 30%. Gosh. Which, by the way, is a high enough number that it used to get you arrested for usury. And apparently now it's the new. Normal and it's okay. But this is concern. And one of the big concerns is because the cost of living has become so high and it's so difficult for so many families. The worry is that people might be starting to use their credit cards to make ends meet, to buy basic necessities, and that historically has not been a story with a happy ending.

 

Rick Sharga (00:27:52) - So we are watching credit card use. We're also watching personal savings rates. When the government stimulus came out, we saw a savings rates at all time highs. We then saw savings declined rapidly to all time low levels. They've recovered a little bit, but they're still on the low end of things, historically speaking. So the same worry here, Keith, which is that we're worried that families might be dipping into personal savings in order to make ends meet. And that combination, there's some research that suggests that, on average, the US household has more credit card debt than they have savings, and that's just not a healthy ratio for anybody to have.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:28:30) - Yeah, America has very much so they live for today mindset I think. So therefore it was a pretty predictable that after the Covid stimulus payments that savings levels probably would drop.

 

Rick Sharga (00:28:42) - Yeah. It's just that they drop further than what we had hoped they would. We're going to talk about inflation in the second. I have a bit of skepticism about some of the inflation numbers that we see reported from the government because of what they include or exclude, or some of the data is trailing by a long time.

 

Rick Sharga (00:28:56) - So I out of frustration, I created my own CPI. It's not the consumer price index, it's the Costco price index. And I look at one of my leading indicators is salmon because I buy my salmon at Costco. And a year ago that salmon cost 999 a pound. Today shopping a Costco, that salmon costs 1299 £1.30 percent. That's a 30% lift for all the talk we hear out of the administration about gas prices going down, I can tell you that where I buy my gas at Costco, it's a couple dollars more a gallon than it was just a few years ago. And I say this with a little bit of a chuckle, and I say this knowing that it's a nuisance for me. But I've been blessed. And it's not a life or death decision for me. But there are families out there who are deciding whether or not they can buy salmon this week. And I would submit that on average, your rental family's income is lower than your owner occupied houses, families, income. And so for all of your listeners who are landlords, this is something to be paying very close attention to, despite the fact that inflation is coming down.

 

Rick Sharga (00:30:02) - Keep in mind that these inflation rates are on top of very high prices that we have as a result of the previous cycle of inflation. So it's going to take a while, even with wages going up for those households to catch up here. And the hope is that wage growth will continue to outpace inflation growth long enough that they'll be able to do that.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:30:23) - Yes, that's a positive trend. Yeah. Rick, as long is in your Costco price index, Costco doesn't try to skimp, inflate and replace your wild elastic salmon with Atlantic farmed salmon. I'm sure you're going to be paying attention to that as well as you fill your own shopping basket and come up with what's really happening with inflation. Because for those that believe the CPI, it's been reported in the low threes lately and CPI peaked at 9.1% almost two years ago in June of 2022.

 

Rick Sharga (00:30:55) - And what the Federal Reserve has done is unprecedented. We've only ever seen rates go this high this quickly, once in the last 50 or 60 years. That was back in the 1980s, when inflation was really in runaway mode and out of control.

 

Rick Sharga (00:31:10) - And normally what the Federal Reserve does is very methodical, very thoughtful. They'll raise the fed funds rate a quarter of a point. They'll sit back and wait to see what happens. They'll raise another quarter point and give it some time to take effect and so forth and so on until they feel like inflation is under control. And then they'll then they'll drop that fed funds rate. In this case, they've admitted a few things that probably took a lot for them to say out loud. They admitted that they underestimated how high inflation would get. They admitted that they underestimated how quickly it would rise. And they also admitted that they underestimated how difficult it was going to be to get it under control. So what it did peak at about 9.1% a couple of years ago. They took unprecedented steps in terms of the size of of rate hikes and the rapidity with which they raised the fed funds rate. And now they're in a position where inflation is trending more or less in the right direction. It's in the low threes, as you said, it has not come down as much in the last couple reports as they would like.

 

Rick Sharga (00:32:10) - And that's probably going to result in them holding the fed funds rate at its current level for at least the first half of this year before they start doing rate cuts, because the last thing they want to do is cut too soon and see inflation start to come back up.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:32:25) - About one month ago, I did an episode titled Why the Fed should not lower rates. Rates are. Normal and the economy doesn't need the help. So if we do have this dreaded R-word, this recession, the most convenient tool for the fed to use is to cut rates. We don't want to use up that ammo while we're still in a good position like we are today.

 

Rick Sharga (00:32:47) - Yeah, I don't disagree with you. And there were some economists and mostly Wall Street, who had been predicting a fed rate cut as early as March and over the course of the year. And I thought they were all crazy great. And I've been saying at the earliest, May now I think it's probably not until June. The rates are a little higher than historic averages.

 

Rick Sharga (00:33:05) - I could see maybe three rate cuts this year, maybe four if the economy slows down significantly. We're not we're certainly not going back to the zero rates that we had for a few years. I think the fed will be very cautious and reserved in its approach to scaling back the fed funds rate. One of the the side effects of what they did is they cast a lot of uncertainty and doubt into the financial markets, which have caused mortgage rates to skyrocket, which have caused private lending rates to skyrocket. For your listeners who borrow from private lenders. And I don't think we see those rates start to come down significantly until after the fed does its first fed funds rate cut, I suspect, and so far I've been right, that until we see that rate cut, we're going to see mortgage rates on a 30 year fixed rate loan kind of bounce back and forth in a very narrow band between about 6.75 and 7.25% for the next few months. And that's really where they've been since January. And I think that will continue to be the case until we see that first rate cut, at which point the market will probably say, okay, they're serious now we can have that sigh of relief, and then we'll see a slow and gradual reduction in mortgage rates.

 

Rick Sharga (00:34:21) - I did want to touch on two things related to the fed actions and the current economic issues. Keith, because I often get the question about likelihood of a recession. If you go back in history all the way back to World War two, not counting this cycle, the Federal Reserve has raised the fed funds rates 11 times in order to get inflation under control. Eight of those 11 times, they've wound up over correcting as they raise the rates right. And that steered us into a recession. The three times that didn't happen, the three times they executed a soft landing, not a recession. All three of those cycles had something in common, and that was that the fed didn't have to overcorrect because they started early. They acted proactively when it looked like inflation was getting started, and they were able to keep inflation under control without a drastic increase in the fed funds rate this cycle. They've already admitted that they waited too long and inflation got higher than they expected. And because of that, they've had to raise the rates more quickly and more dramatically again than anything we've seen in the last 40 or 50 years.

 

Rick Sharga (00:35:25) - So historically speaking, it would seem more likely than not that we'd see at least a mild recession. The people who say, well, if we would have seen one through this cycle, we would have already seen it often overlooked the fact that it can take 24 months after the Fed's rate hikes are done, to see the full effect on the economy.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:35:45) - Economies are complex and cycles move slowly. They do so, historically speaking.

 

Rick Sharga (00:35:50) - That's one thing. I look at the other and without getting to Inside Baseball for your listeners, is something called a yield curve inversion. Yeah. And that's when when the bonds markets sense a disruption in the force and think that Darth Vader may be hitting the economy, but basically it's when the the yields on longer term investments like ten year Treasury bonds switch places with the yields on shorter term investments like two year Treasury bonds. So the yield on a two year investment is actually higher than the yield on a ten year investment. And when you have that inversion, that's what they call a yield curve inversion.

 

Rick Sharga (00:36:23) - And the last eight times that's happened we've had a recession follow not always a long drawn out recession, but there's always been a recession. And this particular yield curve inversion cycle is one of the deepest and longest ones we've had in a long time. And again, using history as a precedent. That doesn't seem to be really good reason for this cycle to behave differently than the last eight half. Having said all that, we may get lucky. The fed may pull a rabbit out of its hat and actually execute that rare soft landing instead of a recession. If they do, we'll still feel the economy slowdown that's almost a given. And if they don't, if we do have a recession, every economist I speak with tells me the same thing that it's likely to be a very short, very mild recession because all of the economic fundamentals underneath are still very, very strong. And, you know, employment, wages, productivity and so forth and so on. So likely to see some sort of slowdown this year, Keith, whether it turns into an actual recession or is just very, very slow growth, that's the most likely scenario for the rest of 2024.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:37:30) - Well, Rick, as we wind down here, the. Last thing I'd like to ask you about is in a recession, what typically happens to real estate, because you and I both study history and something that I often say here on the show is oftentimes you need to look at history over hunches, for example, I think it's easy to have a hunch that when mortgage rates rise while home prices are definitely going to fall. No, actually, if you look at history, when mortgage rates rise, home prices typically rise because rising rates typically mean the economy strong. And another one is when home prices are up. Well, a lot of people think that others want to then jump into the housing market and buy when they see that prices are up. So then when home prices are up, well, that means rents must fall since everyone's buying. But no, these two things typically move together home prices and rents. It's about history over hunches. So with that in mind, talk to us with your historical research on in recessions, what typically happens to the real estate market?

 

Rick Sharga (00:38:28) - Typically, home sales go up from the beginning of recession to the end of a recession.

 

Rick Sharga (00:38:33) - And in fact, with the notable exception of the last recession, the Great Recession, housing is very often helped the economy recuperate from a recession and recover. And that's particularly true in the new homes market. Home prices also typically go up from the beginning of recession to the end of a recession. So you could have some short term disruption. You could see home sales volume or home prices dip slightly at the beginning of a recession. But historically speaking, in every recession except the Great Recession, we've actually seen both home sales and home prices go up. And to your point, higher mortgage rates do not historically equate to lower home prices. What they do equate to is home prices going up at a slower rate. And this last cycle has been very unusual because historically, we've never seen mortgage rates double in a single calendar year until 2022. And in fact, that year rates didn't double in a calendar year. They doubled in a couple of months.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:39:33) - And tripled overall.

 

Rick Sharga (00:39:34) - And they tripled overall. So if you look at that, we did see home prices actually decline in some markets, although nationally the number never went negative.

 

Rick Sharga (00:39:44) - And we saw home price appreciation drop off pretty dramatically but still stay positive on a year over year basis. So it's been kind of interesting. This has been a very unusual cycle for a lot of reasons, but historically speaking, your spot on a recession does not spell doom and gloom for the housing market. Whether you're talking about owner occupied homes or rental properties.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:40:06) - Rick and I talked about the general economy today. Next week, Rick is going to join us again, and we're going to focus squarely on the real estate market. So no long goodbyes, Rick. We'll see you next week.

 

Rick Sharga (00:40:18) - See you soon, Keith.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:40:25) - Yeah. Strong insights from Rick, as usual. To help sum it up, recession or not, expect some sort of economic slowdown later this year. It's expected to be mild. That's what Rick shared with us. And if that happens, expect less rent growth. Then in a recession, home prices tend to go up. That's what really happens. Wage growth keeps outpacing inflation. Now the longer that trend continues, expect more rent growth in the future.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:40:57) - But of course the real rate of inflation is slippery to measure. I think you could still make the case that wage growth isn't really higher than inflation. So to me, that part's actually not that bullish. Rick believes mortgage rates will stay near 7% until the fed makes their first rate cut. We discussed monetary policy today. And you surely know that's what the fed does. They control the flow of money and interest rate policy. We did not discuss fiscal policy. We're not going to next week either. Fiscal policy is something that Tom Wheelwright and I often do together. And what is the difference? Well, fiscal policy is the tax and spend side. When you think of fiscal think tax and spend, and it's often congressional committees and elected officials that make those fiscal policy decisions, not the fed. They're making the monetary policy. That's the difference. This is get rich education. So after all, we do often have these learning moments. There's more of Rick Saga next week as we pivot from talking about the broader economy this week.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:42:05) - And then next week, we'll really drill down on the housing market, including more on property price growth prospects, which regions are growing or shrinking, rent growth prospects, and any warning signs that investors should take notice of today. Hey, what? I'd like to think that I don't ask much of you, the listener. I'd like to ask you if you can help me out with one fairly quick thing today. I'd really appreciate it if you get value from the show here. Whether that was, say, last week's episode on what is retirement anyway or from, say, a few weeks ago, why inflation is actually an immoral force, or the latest trends like the content of today's and next week's show, or my upcoming breakdown of why Western US homes cost more than eastern US homes and other content like that that you just aren't going to find anywhere else. I'm simply asking you for your feedback. This takes the show from one way communication to some two way communication. Please consider leaving me a podcast rating and review, whether that's on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or wherever you listen to the show.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:43:17) - Just do a search for, for example, how to leave an Apple Podcasts review so you can see how to do it. And then I'd be grateful for that. Rating and review more next week on the future direction of the housing market I'm Keith Weinhold. Don't quit your day dream.

 

Speaker 4 (00:43:37) - Nothing on this show should be considered specific, personal or professional advice. Please consult an appropriate tax, legal, real estate, financial or business professional for individualized advice. Opinions of guests are their own. Information is not guaranteed. All investment strategies have the potential for profit or loss. The host is operating on behalf of get Rich education LLC exclusively.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:44:05) - The preceding program was brought to you by your home for wealth building. Get rich education.com.




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Time, health, and money are three key resources in your life. Learn about their trade-offs.

“It’s not at what age I want to retire, it’s at what income.” -George Foreman

I discuss at least three definitions of retirement:

1-The time of life when one permanently chooses to leave the workforce.

2-To remove from service.

3-When you become job-optional.

4-When you stop doing mandatory income-producing activities.

Social security, pensions, 401(k)s, and residual income from real estate and stocks are all discussed.

Compound interest is faulty. Compound leverage can help you retire young.

“After the first $2M-$3M, a paid off home, and a good car, there is no difference in the quality of life between you and Jeff Bezos.” We discuss. 

I briefly cover the antitrust case against the NAR, making the 5-6% commission paid by the seller largely a thing of the past.

Rents are up 2% annually, the biggest gain in thirteen months, per Redfin.

Learn 15 reasons why single-family rentals beat apartments. 

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Complete episode transcript:

 

Keith Weinhold (00:00:01) - Welcome to GRE. I'm your host, Keith Weinhold. Do you want to retire? What is the definition of retirement today, anyway? In fact, with just 2 or $3 million, would you be as happy as the world's richest man, Jeff Bezos? I'll break that down. Then I discuss key trends in the rental housing market today on get Rich education. When you want the best real estate and finance info, the modern internet experience limits your free articles access, and it's replete with paywalls. And you've got pop ups and push notifications and cookies. Disclaimers are. At no other time in history has it been more vital to place nice, clean, free content into your hands that actually adds no hype value to your life? See, this is the golden age of quality newsletters, and I write every word of ours myself. It's got a dash of humor and it's to the point to get the letter. It couldn't be more simple. Text GRE to 66866. And when you start the free newsletter, you'll also get my one hour fast real estate course completely free.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:01:16) - It's called the Don't Quit Your Daydream letter and it wires your mind for wealth. Make sure you read it. Text gray to 66866. Text gray 266866.

 

Corey Coates (00:01:33) - You're listening to the show that has created more financial freedom than nearly any show in the world. This is get rich education.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:01:49) - We're going to go from Andover, England, to Andover, Massachusetts, and across 188 nations worldwide. I'm Keith Weinhold, and you're listening to Get Rich education. Around here, we say that financially free beats debt free. And for many, financially free means retirement. Now, you might be far from retirement, but those with the most foresight are those that begin with the end in mind. And it can be rather dreamy for some to think about retirement and then others don't want to retire. I'm asking you, do you want to retire? Do you ever want to retire? In fact, we posed that very question to our general education audience. I've got those results that I'll share with you here later, and it is really interesting.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:02:41) - But let me give you some perspective. First, I think that some young people fall into the trap of daydreaming about retirement. Oh, you might want to retire someday, but look, you can't dream about it too much. You've got to live in the moment. Because if you retire a traditional retirement age, those people tend to look back on their younger years and regret the things that they didn't try when they were younger. Don't quit your day dream, but don't dream about older age too much when you're younger. With the wealth building concepts that we discuss here on the show every week, you don't have to be that old when you retire to me. What sets the stage for you being able to retire is when you reach the point of being job optional. At what point are you job optional? That is a key turning point and for you, as soon as you're job optional. You might want to retire at that point, but you don't want to retire so soon that things will be iffy on whether or not you run out of money before you run out of life.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:03:49) - The best way to avoid that situation is to build your residual outside of work income alongside you during your working years, and then you won't have to merely guess on if a certain lump sum amount is going to be accumulated and sufficient. Now, one definition that I like for retirement is that you stop doing income producing activities that you don't want to do. All right. That's one definition. What you've done there is that you stopped sacrificing today for some imaginary tomorrow. If you stop doing those mandatory income producing activities. Look, you've got three key resources in your life time, health, and money. When you're younger, you'll trade away your time and even your health for money. That's because you feel like you have an abundance of time and health and not much money yet. But as you progress through life continuing to make this trade, your time and your health become more scarce, resources no longer abundant ones, there will come a point in your life where working will cost you more than retiring. You don't want to get to that point.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:05:09) - Now. You probably see no sheets of paper with the squares that you can hang up. There's 52 boxes in a year and is divided into 90 sections, one for each year of your life. And it shows you graphically in your face how many weeks and years you really have left. And by the way, I cannot get myself to hang up one of those sheets. That is just too much of an in my face reminder of my own mortality. Okay, I'm not doing that, but what do you like to do? Do you like canoeing or reading books or running in five K races? Well, if you read five books a year and you're going to live 50 more years, let's just 250 books for the rest of your life. Now, that sounds like quite a few, but when you're done, you're done. Do you have some best friends that you see, say, once a year? Do you live a long ways from your parents and you only see them once or twice annually, or at this rate, then you might only see your friends, say 31 more times.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:06:17) - And if your parents are older, what if you only see them 18 more times? That might sound like quite a few, but when that's done, that is done. Now this can get a little depressing. But what I'm helping you do here is identify what's important to you in your life. A lot of people don't have any real hobbies outside of their jobs. People feel sad and unfulfilled and can never see themselves retiring when this is the case. Now, you might enjoy drinking with your friends. All right. Sure, but that's not a real hobby. Hopefully you have the ambition to know that there are a lot of things that you really want to do, and you need to find the time in order to do those things. Well, here's the good news you are the one that's in control of how much of your time on earth you spend doing those activities are spending time with those people. Now, I was chatting with one woman about retirement. Gosh, this was interesting. And she told me that she doesn't want to retire.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:07:23) - Okay, well, she justified her stance by saying, who wants to stay at home? And I'm thinking, who wants to stay at home? I found that a really curious answer. Why does retirement mean staying at home? Like if you don't go to work, you'd stay at home. So maybe this person didn't have any hobbies. I mean, I would think that retirement would include the time and ability to travel. Well. So retiring and staying at home or not at all identical to me. A few years ago we had financial expert Kim Butler here on the show. You might remember that really intelligent woman. She was a retirement detractor, not a fan of retirement. The definition of retirement to Kim, if you remember, is to remove from service. That was her definition, meaning that she'll no longer serve others. I'm not saying that's right or wrong. That's her perspective. Well, I think that you can still serve others in retirement. Take a leadership position at your church, coach kids baseball, volunteer at a homeless shelter.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:08:28) - And even if retirement does mean to remove from service, or you probably served others at a full time job for decades, probably even for most of your life. So it's okay to have others in turn serve you in retirement. Well, today I'm here asking you, do you want to retire and what is retirement and not giving you some food for thought, let me discuss some more formal definitions of retirement first before I continue here. Now if you go and Google what is retirement, the word age appears after that as a fourth word, suggesting that you might select what is retirement age. Well, the former boxer George Foreman, he said it well. He said it's not at what age I want to retire. It said what income. Yeah. The first retirement definition that you find though, is the time of life when one permanently chooses to leave the workforce. All right. Well, that's actually a good short definition. And it'll show you that the traditional retirement age is 65 in the US and a lot of other developed countries too.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:09:39) - But in the US today, full retirement age when you can collect full Social Security benefits is age 67. If you were born in 1960 or later, and the earliest that you can collect benefits is 62. But do you know what the average monthly Social Security check amount is today? It is $1,767. Now, that amount can vary a lot depending on the recipient type, but it gives you some idea that that is only a supplement to your other income that you've got to figure out. And a sad and paltry $1,767. I mean that right there. That may very well be a motivator to make you want to invest well elsewhere. The old standard is that retirees need 80% of the income that they had when they were working, but were more abundantly minded. Here at GRI, I'd like to think that your income could go up in retirement as you keep adding cash flowing assets. But in a recent survey of consumer finance, the mean retirement amount saved of all working age families, the complete family here, not just the individual, is just 269 K.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:10:58) - That's not per year as retirement income. That's just the lump sum to live off of. Now some workers, especially government employees, they have a pension. That's where you don't have to just draw from a lump sum at the end of your life, like you would at the end of your life, like you would with a 401 K. So a pension that's a predetermined livable amount that you're paid each year in retirement, it's often based on the percent that you earn during your working years, say 75%. That's why most people like a pension within a 401 K, because pensions are about the perpetual income, not the lump sum, where you just hope that it lasts. But pensions are expensive. So the private sector really started phasing them out beginning in the ninth. 80s. Really in the US retirement. What that used to mean is turning 65 and drawing a pension and Social Security. I mean, that's what you'll hear your grandparents talk about. Now for us in younger generations, remember, your 401 K withdrawals must begin between age 59.5 and 70, and you must begin paying tax on it at that time.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:12:13) - Now, there's been a flurry of research about advances in longevity. Some of the more optimistic ones even say that if you're currently under age 55 and you get to the age of 65 in good health, you're likely to live to be 125 plus, if that comes true or even partially true, that tilts toward not accumulating a lump sum in retirement, but having an income stream from something like income producing real estate or stock dividends. You really need to focus on that income stream. If you're going to live a few decades longer than the current life expectancy. Look, when you make the production of ongoing income part of your ongoing investment strategy, you don't need what many retirees think of as the 4% rule. You probably heard of it what the 4% rule is. That's a popular retirement withdrawal strategy that says that you can safely withdraw the amount equal to 4% of your savings during the year that you retire, and then you're supposed to adjust for inflation each subsequent year for, say, 20 or 30 years. Well, that imposes serious limits.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:13:28) - I mean, that is synonymous with the life deferral plan, like a 401 K, where you voluntarily reduce your income in your working years to participate in an employee sponsored plan that isn't even designed to produce income until you're older, trading away pieces of your 30 year old self to get pieces of your 80 year old self back, you're drawing down on your big pot that you have saved for retirement. And instead, if you've been adding income producing investments for a decade or more, what you won't have to draw down at the limiting 4%, you've got to, of course, figure out inflation. Those retirees that are tapping into one lump sum amount, like from an employer sponsored plan a 401 K or a 403 B, they just try to guess at the future inflation rate. That's all any of us can do. And a lot of times they safely assume 4%. Around here we talk about how the real world inflation long term is almost certainly higher than that. So if you've got income from real estate and say you even do want to have your real estate paid off in retirement, you may or may not want to pay it off since you're ten and services your debt.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:14:41) - Well, you know, when it comes to inflation, rents tend to stay indexed to inflation. So your residual cash flow is pretty well protected from erosion to inflation. I've got some good news. You might be able to retire substantially sooner than you think. That's because if you're age 20 or 30 or 40 or 50, whatever, most planners, they project your wealth from a lump sum that grows with compound interest or compound interest is faulty, as we know it's degraded down after you account for inflation, emotion, taxes, fees, and volatility. Luckily for you, you have more than weak, impotent, and deluded compound interest because in addition to your residual income, you're going to have bigger lump sums than others because you had compounding leverage, not compounding interest. Even if you had zero real estate cash flow in retirement and you've got leverage, you made lots of 20% down payments on properties that appreciated, say, 5% a year. That means you were leveraged 5 to 1 and you got a 25% return in that first year of each rental property that you owned and is any Gary devotee knows that 25% is one of just five ways you're paid.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:16:07) - This is why you can actually retire sooner than you're thinking. With help from leverage. What you've done is collapse time frames. Understand that when you're in your retirement years, most people they have a U shaped spending pattern. Yes, u shaped spending in retirement because you tend to spend a lot of money in your early retirement years. You're traveling, you're living it up, and then you get a decade or two older. You slow down, you stay at home and spend less the trough of the U. And then your expenses go up before end of life. Care. Yes, you shaped spending patterns in retirement are common. And I know I talked about slowing down there at the trough of the year, but of course you won't be slowing down. It's just that others have tended to. Now, a really interesting topic that has circulated among many lately, and I believe that this was first proposed and debated on Reddit or X, and that is this after the first 2 million or $3 million a paid off home in a good car, there is no difference in the quality of life between you and Jeff Bezos, the richest man in the world.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:17:29) - That's the topic. What do you think about that? 2 or $3 million is attainable. You might already be there or beyond it. And of course, this says nothing about an income stream. So let's presume that there isn't one. All right. Well, in response to this topic, Spencer here from Orlando says I strongly disagree. Private jets complete immunity to health care costs and the ability to donate sums that change lives are all heavy hitting things that you can't do with $3 million. Tug from New York says, I agree 100%. Things like vacationing on a private island or a superyacht they may be cool to experience, but these are not necessarily things I'm thinking of when I think of happiness and anonymous respondents says Bezos's 420,000 acres probably have several views. That would be my view. Glenn, from Florida, says I have a paid off 975 square foot home, a 2018 Honda Cr-V, and not much spare cash. But I do have a wife going on 49 years who loves me, so I am richer than most millionaires like Quay.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:18:43) - I don't know where he's from, Mike says. I disagree with the 2 million to $3 million thing. I have some wealthy friends and they say that the sweet spot is 10 million to 100 million. In this zone, you can live very comfortably, but you're also able to blend in easily enough with most of the middle class. When you eclipse $100 million, typically you're involved with something public invisible, and then security and other considerations become much more of a problem. All right, that was his take, Mike keys. And then we had a number of others point out that $2 million is not enough to fly private, which makes a big difference to your quality of life. And yes, they do have a point there. I have flown private once and there is a substantial difference. Finally, Tanner's got a good point here. He says, I agree there is no significant difference in quality of life. Having safety, security, education, some autonomy and growth potential is key. The difference between a regular vacation and a $50,000 vacation is negligible, and it is the same with cars, food, watches and anything materialistic.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:19:54) - That's what Tanner says. All right, well, to summarize that for you here, and this is also parallel with my belief is that I disagree with this Bezos thing, with the 2 to $3 million net worth in your necessities taken care of. There is a difference between that life and Jeff Bezos life. But remember, the claim is that there was no difference. However, that difference is not that vast. That's my opinion. And yes, one can say that no amount of money can bring you happiness, but with money, you can buy time that you can fill with happiness and those that you love. Now that you have some perspective in different viewpoints, maybe you're better able to answer that question that I asked you at the beginning. Do you want to retire? And here it is, our poll that was run on our Instagram Stories. It asked, do you want to retire and blow those words? It showed a happy couple on vacation holding hands and the result was yes, 58% of you want to retire and the nos were 42%.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:21:06) - If you've given extraordinary service to humanity, I say sure. Thank you for your great service to humanity. Congratulations. Go ahead and retire more straight ahead. As I discussed the most proven retire early vehicle of all time and key shifts in the real estate market, and how you can accidentally build wealth with it. Positive leverage. This is episode 494. You're just six weeks away from an unforgettable episode 500 I'm Keith Reinhold. You're listening to get Rich education. You know, I'll just tell you, for the most passive part of my real estate investing, personally, I put my own dollars with Freedom Family Investments because their funds pay me a stream of regular cash flow in returns, or better than a bank savings account up to 12%. Their minimums are as low as 25 K. You don't even need to be accredited for some of them. It's all backed by real estate and that kind of love. How the tax benefit of doing this can offset capital gains and your W-2 jobs income. And they've always given me exactly their stated return paid on time.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:22:19) - So it's steady income, no surprises while I'm sleeping or just doing the things I love. For a little insider tip, I've invested in their power fund to get going on that text family to 66866. Oh, and this isn't a solicitation. If you want to invest where I do, just go ahead and text family to six, 686, six. Role under the specific expert with income property, you need Ridge Lending Group and MLS for 256 injury history from beginners to veterans. They provided our listeners with more mortgages than anyone. It's where I get my own loans for single family rentals up to four plex's. Start your prequalification and chat with President Charley Ridge. Personally. They'll even customize a plan tailored to you for growing your portfolio. Start at Ridge Lending group.com Ridge lending group.com. What's up everyone? This is HGTV. Tarek Moussa, listen to get Rich education with Keith Reinhold and don't.

 

Speaker 3 (00:23:31) - Quit your day dream.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:23:43) - Welcome back. To Get Rid of Education. I'm your host, Keith Weinhold. You might want to know what I think about the ruling that was made ten days ago.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:23:50) - With respect to the antitrust case against the Nar. I was asked to speak on television about it. I put more about that in last week's newsletter, so I don't have too much more to tell you here. The high point is that the standard 5 to 6% commissions are gone. Sellers used to pay that completely. That commission amount was split between their seller raisin in the buyer's agent. What really happened here is that the lawsuits argue that the Nar and brokerages kept buyers and sellers out of the commission negotiation process, and that led to higher overall costs. And really, the result of this is that it should make some agents lower their fees in order to stay competitive. We should end up seeing lower sales costs when one sells a property. Some estimates are that agent commissions will be down about 30%. Perhaps half of America's 2 million agents will lead the industry. We'll see about that. But see, sellers are still going to want to get the most money for their property that they can, and they're still going to be using comparable sales.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:24:54) - So that's why it remains to be seen if it really affects listing prices at all. Overall, the Nar continues its waning influence in the real estate industry. Before we discuss the rental property market, you know, I find this kind of upsetting. I mean, do we need to politicize everything? Redfin recently reported that the majority of U.S. homeowners and renters say that housing affordability affects their pick for president. I mean, this is getting ridiculous. That's according to a Redfin commissioned survey conducted by Qualtrics, 3000 US homeowners and renters were surveyed. Those surveyed were worried about the lack of housing inventory and affordability. I mean, how do you really know which presidential administration to blame that on for who to give credit to? I mean, Biden did recently roll out a plan to help with housing affordability. And then, on the other hand, Trump is famously known as a real estate investor, after all. Let's talk about the single family rental market. Do you know what the typical rent range is for a single family rental in America today? Well, the John Byrnes Single Family Rental Survey shows us that most respondents report monthly rents in the $1750 to $2250 range.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:26:18) - There are about eight ranges here, and 54% of single family reds are in that range. So really close to $2,000. And yeah, I myself have many or even most of my single family rentals in that same range near $2,000. Rents are lowest in the Midwest and Southeast, where a lot of operators report average rents 17 to $1800, and then it almost $2,700. California rent outpaces much of the nation. And you know what? If you just heard that right there, you'd actually think that California is the place to invest and that the Midwest and Southeast or not. But it's just the opposite of that, because it's not about the absolute rent amount. It's about that ratio of rent to purchase price. And that's what makes the Midwest and Southeast the best places. And a third region that's an investment sweet spot is what I like to call the inland Northeast Pittsburgh, Harrisburg, Philadelphia, even Baltimore. Although Baltimore is getting a little coastal, it's the Inland Northeast that has the numbers that work, not the coastal northeast like New York City in Boston and those really high priced markets where rents don't keep up proportionally.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:27:39) - And of course, there are pockets of opportunity elsewhere, like Texas and some other markets. And note that no part of Pennsylvania is on the East Coast at all, not even Philadelphia. None of it touches the coast. I am indeed a native Pennsylvanian. You get these little geography lessons from me interspersed here at gray., Redfin tells us that rents in the US now this is both apartments in single family. Now we're just talking about single family. Earlier rents are up 2% annually. That's actually the biggest gain in 13 months. Yes, a pretty modest increase there as rent amounts have just been really pretty steady for the last year. And so much new apartment construction took place last year that there is quite a bit of apartment supply to soak up in certain metros, and you might even see concessions. On some of these. I mean, if a new apartment complex is just finished, you know what's sitting there? 250 vacant units all at once. So you're seeing some apartment owners try to entice renters with one month's free rent for a 12 month lease, for example.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:28:51) - The single family rental market is in better shape from a demand supply perspective than apartments are. See, what's happened, though, is that with the Airbnb market becoming both oversaturated in some markets and then cities cracking down on short term rentals in other markets, it's there's some STR owners have turned their single family homes from Airbnbs over to long term rentals, and that brought a little more supply out of the long term rental market. More places have bans on short term rentals, and gosh, I just had an awful short term rental experience last month when I stayed at one. I usually go for hotels and that's what I'll be doing for a while again,? Now, Adam data, they have some great stats for us here. They reported that rental margins are increasing in about two thirds of the nation. That's some good news. But the increase is still pretty small. And they show us the top five counties for single family rental yield. And they used three bedrooms in their single family rental yield comps. And they did it in larger markets of a million plus.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:30:03) - All right. So these are counties of a large population where you're getting the best cash flow today basically on single families. Fifth, and I'm surprised that this is Riverside County California. That's the Inland Empire. You sure want to check landlord tenant law in a highly regulated place like California. Fourth is Cook County, Illinois. That's Chicago. Third is Coahoma County, Ohio. That's Cleveland. The second best single family rental yield is Allegheny County, Pennsylvania. That's Pittsburgh. And first number one for rent yield on single families is Wayne County, Michigan. That's Detroit. We've discussed Detroit on the show before. It has a stigma. It seems like the only way to make the stigma disappear is to visit. And you're going to find Investor Advantage properties in a lot of those counties through our gray investment coaches here at Gray marketplace.com about single family rental homes. Now, some asset types like apartment buildings or perhaps self-storage units, they have economies of scale and some other advantages over single family rentals. But single families are a favorite.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:31:18) - They might have the best risk adjusted return anywhere today, even after 2008 Great Recession, those that had bought for cash flow persevered and even thrived. In fact, single family rentals have at least 15 distinct advantages over a larger apartment building, some that you probably never thought about before. And as I discussed this, don't think that I dislike apartment buildings. Okay, it's likely not the most advantageous time in the market cycle for apartments. It's tenant quality. Single family rentals attract a better quality of tenant. They take better care of the premises. Then there's the neighborhood. Single families tend to be in a better neighborhood. Then there's appreciation. Properties tend to appreciate better over time. Fourthly, there's the school district. They're more likely to be in a better school district. Then there's the retention. Tenants stay longer, creating less vacancy expense. And the aforementioned neighborhood and school districts are why they stay. And you've got common areas. A lot of people don't think about this single families. They don't have these common areas to clean and maintain.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:32:29) - Apartments have hallways, stairs, larger rooms, and common outdoor grounds that a custodian needs to service. And this is another overlooked profit drag that apartment investors miss in their PNL in their profit and loss projections. And I miss this expense on my first ever apartment. By then, there's utilities in single family rentals. Tenants often pay all the utilities. They even care for the lawn. The larger the apartment building is, the more likely you'll, as the owner, be the one paying utility costs like heat, electricity, water, wastewater, and landscaping. Then there's divisibility. What if you've got property that's not performing the way you hoped it would? Well, if you had ten single family rentals, you can sell the 1 or 2 that are not performing. And with a ten unit apartment building, you must either keep or sell all of the units. It's not divisible. Fire and pestilence. You know, fire and pests. They are more easily controlled in single family rentals where there aren't common walls, even if you're at.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:33:34) - Ensured these diffuse conditions. They often affect multiple units and families in larger complexes. Financing is a big deal. Income. Single family rentals. They have both lower mortgage interest rates and lower down payment requirements than apartments. You can secure ten single family rental loans if you're single, 20 if you're married at the best rates and terms through the GSEs, the government sponsored enterprises Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, with 20% down payments and apartments, rarely, if ever, have 30 year fixed rate terms like 1 to 4 unit properties do, and you can get more than 10 or 20 of them. But the financing terms are not going to be as good. And what about vacancy rate? That's true that if you're a single family's vacant, your vacancy rate is 100%. If your fourplex has one vacancy, then your vacancy rate is only 25%. But the same is true if you own four Single-Family rentals in one is vacant. Then there's management. If you hire professional management, your manager would likely rather deal with higher quality single family residence.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:34:44) - If you're self-managing, this is a demographic that you would probably rather handle yourself to supply and demand. There aren't enough low cost single family rentals that make the best income producing properties. Demand exceeds supply, and this is going to continue in both the short and the medium term. Then there's market risk. This is another overlooked criterion. Yes, criterion. Does anyone even know that the singular of criteria is criterion?, you've got to keep your properties filled with rent paying tennis. They have jobs. So if you think you're going to be able to buy ten rental units in the near future with your tenured apartment building, that's only going to be in one location, leaving you exposed to just one geographies economic fortunes instead with, say, ten single family rentals, you could have four in little Rock, three in Dallas and three in Birmingham. And then your exit strategy, that's an important consideration, especially for newer investors years down the road when it's time for you to sell your income property, hopefully, after years of handsome profits, there's a greater buyer pool for your single family then there's going to be for your apartment building.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:35:58) - More buyers can afford the lower price, and then, unlike apartments, you even have access to a pool of buyers that might want to occupy your property themselves. To live there as an owner occupant, there might even be your current tenant that buys it from you. So those are some of the attributes of single family rental homes. Again, I really like apartment buildings too. I could go on with more advantages for apartment buildings. If you've been meaning to grow your portfolio, you know when you have this information, don't let it be like two well-meaning friends that meet at the gym. And then they say, hey, we should grab lunch sometime. You know what? That is a nonstarter. You got to put something on the calendar to make something happen. You can't make any money from the property that you don't own. You can just copy me and buy the same types of properties in the same places where I buy. Get pre-qualified for a mortgage loan and we'll help you find property. We talked about retirement earlier.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:36:58) - I mean, the earlier you get into real estate, the better off you're going to be. From that perspective, the best time is today as you get leverage working for you and inflation profiting working for you. What's going on today is with this lower affordability, first time homebuyers, they have often now got to spend years saving for a down payment while they rent. And in the meantime, you can solve their housing problem. They become your renter in these freshly renovated homes or new build homes. And I'll even give you two addresses before we leave. Today. Though in today's tightly supplied market, you know, sound income properties can seem more rare than a pop up. And that's actually useful. Supply is short overall, but because of our long standing relationships, we have a good selection right now. This first of two properties is on Crane Road in Memphis, Tennessee. It's a single family rental. The purchase price is $169,500. The rent's 1253 bed, two bath, 1265ft². The year built is 1964.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:38:12) - Ask your investment coach about the fresh renovations there. And the other one is in little Rock, Arkansas. And I think I told you that when I made my little Rock real estate visit, I had some extra time and I visited the Bill Clinton Presidential Library, which though, although it's called a library, presidential library, is there really like museums a tribute. To the past president. What I don't think that I did share is that in the entire Bill Clinton presidential library, I could not find one mention of Monica Lewinsky. Not one shred of evidence that that ever took place. Nothing.

 

Speaker 4 (00:38:50) - Let me tell you something. There's going to be a whole bunch of things we don't tell Mrs. Clinton.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:38:58) - Nothing whitewashed. All the evidence at all.

 

Speaker 5 (00:39:01) - Nothing there.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:39:03) - This property is on Duncan Drive in Little Rock, Arkansas. The single family rental has a purchase price of 117 nine. Rent is 975. Three bed, two bath, 888ft². In the year it was built was 1967. So these are some of the lower cost properties that you find at Gray Marketplace.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:39:25) - If you prefer brand new builds, brand new construction, we can help you with those two. You typically can't find these deals on public facing platforms that are broad like the MLS or Zillow, and it's completely free. Contact your gray investment coach and learn about these properties. Rehab details and others like them. Learn about their occupancy status and more. And if you don't have a coach, pick one. They'll help you out at Gray marketplace.com. Until next week. I'm Keith, landlord. Don't quit your Daydream!

 

Speaker 6 (00:40:02) - Nothing on this show should be considered specific, personal or professional advice. Please consult an appropriate tax, legal, real estate, financial or business professional for individualized advice. Opinions of guests are their own. Information is not guaranteed. All investment strategies have the potential for profit or loss the host is operating on behalf of yet Rich education LLC exclusively.

 

Speaker 7 (00:40:30) - The preceding program was brought to you by your home for wealth building. Get rich education.com.




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I state the reasons why I DON’T believe that the Federal Open Market Committee should lower interest rates. Rates are currently normalized.

Watch the full Spartan Summit Presentation here. The first half is played on this episode.

President Biden is trying to help the housing market’s poor affordability and undersupply.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell made recent remarks on the real estate market. He emphasized the lack of supply.

High rates = strong economy

Low rates = weak economy

Lowering interest rates to zero is artificial and introduces distortions in an economy.

If we have a recession, we need “rate cut ammo” in order to make cuts at that time.

Lowering rates also sets up an inflationary environment. That’s bad for society, but leveraged income property investors benefit.

A “Fed pivot” means that the FOMC changes from raising rates to lowering rates, or vice versa.

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Complete episode transcript:

 

Keith Weinhold (00:00:01) - Welcome to Greece. I'm your host, Keith Whitfield. President Biden tries to help the housing market. Everyone wants to know when interest rates will be cut. I'm asking, why would we cut rates anytime soon? Yes. Some fed talk today and a lot more on get rich education. When you want the best real estate and finance info. The modern internet experience limits your free articles access, and it's replete with paywalls. And you've got pop ups and push notifications and cookies. Disclaimers are. At no other time in history has it been more vital to place nice, clean, free content into your hands that actually adds no hype value to your life? See, this is the golden age of quality newsletters, and I write every word of ours myself. It's got a dash of humor and it's to the point to get the letter. It couldn't be more simple. Text gray to 66866. And when you start the free newsletter, you'll also get my one hour fast real estate course completely free. It's called the Don't Quit Your Daydream letter and it wires your mind for wealth.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:01:15) - Make sure you read it. Text gray to 66866. Text gray 266866.

 

Corey Coates (00:01:27) - You're listening to the show that has created more financial freedom than nearly any show in the world. This is get rich education.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:01:43) - Welcome, Jerry from Bowmanville, Pennsylvania, to Louisville, Kentucky, and across 188 nations worldwide. And Keith Wayne Holden, I'm grateful to have you here with me for another week. This is get rich education. I'm about to discuss the case for not lowering interest rates, and you'll hear a clip of Jerome Powell commenting on the real estate market shortly. But first, President Biden recently made a state of the Union address, and he unveiled his plan to help the Undersupplied housing market. Part of the plan was to help the buyer side the demand side with incentives, which I'm not sure that we need the support over there on that side. And now that would juice real estate prices. More on housing supply side. Biden's plan creates a $20 billion fund to build more rental housing and kill some construction restrictions. Okay.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:02:35) - Yeah, that's the key part of the plan. And that's more helpful. Help that supply side. Perhaps the most interesting part of the plan is a $10,000 credit that's meant to incentivize people to sell their starter homes. That's our president on housing. Let's pivot over to Club Fed. Yeah. Welcome in to Club Fed. There's no cover charge for some reason Janet Yellen still hanging around chaperoning. And she still looks like my grandma. Earlier this month, Fed Chair Jerome Powell acknowledged that the commercial real estate loan problems could cause manageable problems for regional banks, possibly for years. I find it interesting that he uses the word manageable when acknowledging problems on the commercial side. I mean, we'll see, but that kind of reminds me of one of Powell's predecessors, former Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke, in 2007, saying that the subprime loan problem was contained is the word that he used. And we all know that. I know the mortgage meltdown contagion of 2008 was anything but contained. Today, when we talk about Powell and interest rates back around 2021, he got beaten up pretty badly for not acknowledging rising inflation sooner.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:03:56) - But he's brought inflation down to about 3% without a recession. So some credit is due there, but not too much credit because the game's not quite over. And it took that torrid set of interest rate increases where they climbed a cliff in order to quell inflation. And that already hurt a lot of people, including those erstwhile commercial real estate people in their loans that jumped up to a higher interest rate. Now we're talking about interest rate policy. Let me give you something that's easy to remember. High rates mean a strong economy. Low rates mean a weak economy. With that in mind, let's look at where we've come from. And then we'll look at the future. A lot of people got drunk with easy money starting 15 years ago, because it was nearly free to borrow an interest rate of zero at the federal funds level. That gives you no incentive to save and more incentive to borrow and spend. Well, the federal funds rate was zero from 2009 to 2015 to get us out of the Great Recession.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:05:04) - And then it was zero again from 2020 to 2022 to help lift us out of Covid. That's the past since the federal funds rate, which a lot of other interest rates are based off of two since it quickly shot up starting two years ago, it's now been a full eight months since rates have moved at all. They haven't budged since July of last year. So that's where we are now and I'm fine with them staying here for a while now. Jerome Powell recently testified to the House Financial Services Committee. Let's listen in to him discuss real estate as he's questioned.

 

Jerome Powell (00:05:44) - The housing market is in a very challenging situation right now. You had this longer run housing shortage, but at the same time, you've got a bunch of things that have to do with the pandemic and the inflation and our response with higher rates. So you you have a shortage of homes available for sale because many people are living in homes with a very low rate mortgage that they can't afford to refinance. So they're not moving, which means the supply of regular existing homes that are for sale is historically low and very low transaction rate.

 

Jerome Powell (00:06:14) - That actually pushes up prices of of of other existing homes and also of new homes, because there's just not enough supply. The builders are busy, but they're running into, you know, all kinds of supply issues still around zoning and, and workers and things like that. So, so it's quite challenging. And of course, rates are high. So people who are buying a lot of the buyers are, are cash buyers or able to actually pay without a mortgage because mortgages are expensive, I will say. The first problem. The longer run problem of supply is a longer run problem. The other problems associated with low rate mortgages and high rates and all that, those will abate as the economy normalizes and as rates normalize. But we'll still be left with with the housing market nationally where where there's a housing shortage.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:07:02) - That's Jerome Powell on real estate. And I'm surprised that he said rates are high. Do you know what the long run federal funds rate is? It is 4.6%. That's the average. And currently it is at 5.3% where it's been for a while.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:07:18) - So it's not that much higher than average. The 30 year mortgage long run average is 7.7% for Freddie Mac. And that's been hovering around 7% for months now. So therefore both key rates are close to normal today. But despite that fact, seemingly everyone is waiting for the fed pivot. And what the fed pivot means is when they reverse their monetary policy stance. Meaning when they start lowering rates again after the long increase cycle that we're coming off of. Well, I'm here asking why should the fed pivot in lower rates since they're near normal now? All right. Let me give you some real perspective here. Look I'm going to describe a scenario to you and tell me what you think about this. Imagine a dreamy bygone era where there happened to be this period that saw a strong national labor market, plenty of jobs, steady GDP growth, rising wages and inflation a little above normal. All right, now that you're done imagining that cloudy slice of economic Americana. Pretty rosy scenario. Well, then you might consider raising rates in a situation like that to help cool off wage and price inflation.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:08:37) - Well, you know what I just did? I actually just described to you where we are today. That's what today's conditions are are. Yet there's still talk of lowering rates later this year. And now you might see why I'm questioning that because the economy doesn't need the help. Sure enough, in front of that same committee, Fed Chair Jerome Powell and other fed officials, they did say that they expect interest rates to come down later this year. I hope they're not doing that for political pressure or to try to reassure the stock market. Those would not be good reasons. And dropping rates to zero at the first sign of a crisis that shouldn't become a habit. Because, look, before the 2008 crisis, when they dropped from the zero, going all the way back to at least the 1950s, maybe longer rates were never zero. That entire time, see if the fed just steps back and doesn't touch rates for a while, then it's all the longer that more free market forces can prevail. I don't know that we need to constantly tinker with rates, like a greasy guy crawling under his classic car in his garage and tinkering around with it.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:09:52) - Another reason the fed should lower rates, and is because it needs to hold on to some rate cut ammunition in case there's a recession. Because in a recession, one of the best tools that the fed has to cool it off is by lowering rates in order to incentivize investment in a slow economy. But see what happens. If you use up all your ammo, you already start lowering it and you're already near zero. And then we have a recession. I don't know that America is ready for negative interest rate policy like some other nations have tried. And by the way, if you earn a negative interest rate, that means that if you park your money at the bank, you have to pay them interest rather than the bank paying you interest. They get the use of your money and you have to pay them for parking it there. That's a negative interest rate. Well, recessions have a strong correlation with lowering rates. I mean, just look back historically again, history over hunches. But you know, if you don't follow this stuff, the short story of what's happened the past several months is that interest rate cuts keep being delayed because of stubborn inflation that just won't fall down to the Fed's desired 2%.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:11:06) - And Powell also recently said that he needed just a bit more evidence that inflation was coming back down to normal levels before he'll reduce rates, although we're not far from it. That's exactly what he said. Now, if rates go back down and it's probably when rates go back down, look for the housing market to break loose. The interest rate lock in effect will wither away, property affordability will improve, and there's a good chance then, for a strong upward jolt on property prices on those values. Last year, the. There were some studies done and it was interesting. It showed that 5.5%, that is the magic mortgage rate level that makes the real estate market want to really transact. But this year, with rates that have stayed higher longer, surveys say that level is now up into the high fives. And there is another factor. As interest rates drop, the cost of maintaining our national debt also decreases. That is part of the calculus two. Well, if you're a fed watcher, a fed speak geek, you are in luck.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:12:15) - Because though it's not really much of a spectator sport, and the parties at Club Fed and all their PhD economists really aren't all that lively, if you're so inclined, one of the Fed's eight annual meetings where they announce any interest rate changes happens in just two days, and then the next two meetings conclude May 1st and June 12th. If you like to track rates, especially if you're perhaps in the mortgage loan process right now, my favorite website is Freddie Mac. The mobile app that I use is the Mortgage News Daily app, coming up here on a future episode of the show. Retirement. Some wanted, some don't. Real estate might give you an early retirement option, but I'm asking the question do you want to retire? Do you ever want to retire? We're going to go deep on that. And then what even is your definition of retirement today? You could learn something about yourself on that upcoming episode about retirement here. Speaking of spectator sports,, no, this is really one either. But you could have gotten on a jet and paid for a ticket to watch me speak.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:13:23) - Or you can listen free next to part of the recording of that presentation of mine at the Spartan Summit from earlier. They had me kick off their event. I was their opening speaker, and I share some things with that audience that really shake people up that they've never heard before. You will hear it both at new material as we play this and some things that you've heard before here on the show. But even those things I say differently in a format like this. So straight ahead, it'll be wealth mindset first and then the real estate investing fundamentals. If I could condense the best gray content in principles into less than an hour, you know, that's pretty close to what this presentation is. You hear about the first half of it coming up straight ahead. You're listening to get Rich education. You know, I'll just tell you, for the most passive part of my real estate investing, personally, I put my own dollars with Freedom Family Investments because their funds pay me a stream of regular cash flow in returns, or better than a bank savings account, up to 12%.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:14:31) - Their minimums are as low as 25 K. You don't even need to be accredited for some of them. It's all backed by real estate and that kind of love. How the tax benefit of doing this can offset capital gains and your W-2 jobs income. And they've always given me exactly their stated return paid on time. So it's steady income, no surprises while I'm sleeping or just doing the things I love. For a little insider tip, I've invested in their power fund to get going on that text family to 66866. Oh, and this isn't a solicitation. If you want to invest where I do, just go ahead and text family to six, 686, six. Role under this specific expert with income property, you need Ridge lending Group and MLS 42056 in grey history, from beginners to veterans. They provided our listeners with more mortgages than anyone. It's where I get my own loans for single family rentals up to four Plex's. Start your pre-qualification and chat with President Charlie Ridge personally. They'll even customize a plan tailored to you for growing your portfolio.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:15:45) - Start at Ridge Lending group.com Ridge lending group.com.

 

Speaker 4 (00:15:55) - This is Hal Elrod, author of The Miracle Morning. And listen to get Rich education with Keith Weinhold and don't Quit Your Daydream.

 

Speaker 5 (00:16:16) - It is with great pleasure that I get to introduce you to our first speaker for today. He is the founder of get Rich education and host of the popular get Rich education podcast. His show has nearly 3 million listener downloads from all across the world. He also actively invest in apartment buildings, single family homes and agricultural real estate. He is a member of the Forbes Real Estate Council, and his work regularly appears in Forbes, Business Insider, and Rich Dad Advisors. Today, he's taking us back to the basics to discuss why real estate is such an attractive and solid investment option for those looking to find their own financial freedom. If you've listened to the grit Rich education podcast, then you've heard him speak. But today we are so thrilled that he's kicking off our second annual Spartan Summit. Ladies and gentlemen, here's Keith Reinhold.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:17:13) - Hi, my name is Keith Weinhold.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:17:14) - I am the founder of get Rich education. My presentation is called simply Why Real Estate? Because if you don't know why you're doing something, then you really won't care about how. And I'm really pleased to be first up here at the Spartan Summit, you're going to hear some things that you've never heard before today. For example, compound interest does not build wealth. Getting your money to work for you does not build wealth in the real world. And real estate investors, one of the first things they need to do is actually stop looking at property. So what is this financial heresy that I'm talking about? Well, I think it's going to be pretty clear to you in less than an hour's time here. It all starts with you thinking differently. You really need to open yourselves up. And I think you start to have the realization that any outsized thinker or doer, over time, did think outside the box to have that outsized impact, whether that's Thomas Edison or Jeff Bezos or Sara Blakely or Warren Buffett, they all dared to think differently.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:18:15) - And if you're not getting the results that you want in life, you know, maybe a great question to ask yourself is, am I thinking differently enough when you come of age in the world, whether you finish high school or college or whatever it is, you probably never really had this vision for yourself, or you're intentional and you say, yeah, I can't wait to go out there and live a small life. But then you know what? That's exactly what everyone does. Everyone goes out and lives a small life. So with thinking differently, you know, Mark Twain's got some great quotes about thinking differently. Mark Twain said, as soon as you find yourself on the side of the majority, it is time to pause and reflect. Absolutely love that for Mark Twain. Mark Twain also said one of his lesser known quotes is go out on a limb. That's where the fruit is. Yeah, absolutely. Love that one. So being a conformer does not build wealth or does not have a substantial positive impact on other people.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:19:16) - And you know, I wouldn't suggest that you think differently or do something differently if I weren't doing that myself. I don't know that I've had the outsized impact of some of those visionaries and inventors that I mentioned earlier. I probably haven't had as many years on this earth yet as them either. But one thing I did that was different is years ago I moved from Pennsylvania, where I was born, raised, and lived much of my life to Anchorage, Alaska. Well, that was deemed by Pennsylvanians and a good part of my peer group is a strange and unusual thing to do. But I knew that a place like Anchorage fit my interests for skiing and mountaineering because I had vacationed there. That was the place for me. The first ever home that I bought of any kind. I was only a rent paying tenant up until the day I bought a fourplex building where I lived in one unit and rented out the other three. That was pretty strange. I didn't start with a single family home. I quit my job, my good paying day job with benefits for residual income from real estate.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:20:14) - Another strange thing to do. I launched the get Rich education podcast in the year 2014. Kind of weird talking to myself in a little room all by myself. A lot of people didn't understand what I was doing then, so those are just some examples of some different things I've done. You know, you're different things are probably going to be different, but you really don't want to be a conformer if you think about it, high school was the place where you were rewarded for fitting in. But when you become an adult, really you get rewarded when you stand out and you don't be that conformer well, we talk about my presentation called Why Real Estate? We're really taking it from philosophy all the way through to the numbers here. And years ago, I would have loved to know why real estate made ordinary people wealthy. You know, an interesting thing. I'll just tell you, when I bought that first fourplex building, I didn't even know what terms like cash flow and equity meant. I did not even know the meaning of those terms.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:21:13) - And here I had owned a. Substantial building a $295,000 fourplex, which is a lot for me when I was working a day job and I bought it, and I think as a layperson before I bought that building and got down this road, I kind of thought, now, how could real estate possibly make people wealthy? Because real estate only appreciates at the at about the rate of inflation over time. That's about all it does. And I found that that part's true. And then real estate, it has the elements working on it from the outside. And it has tenants like working on it and wearing it down and degrading it from the inside. So how could real estate possibly be a good investment? I didn't understand that. I tell you, it's really important for you to learn from someone that's actually doing it. That's inside and doing this thing. I'm about as active as real estate investor could possibly be. I own Single-Family rental homes, up to larger apartment buildings, even some agricultural real estate. So it's important to learn from someone that's doing it.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:22:16) - And this presentation is really what my ears have shown me. And we talk about how you have to think differently and be opened up. You know, interestingly, we're in what people call the information age. We have been for decades this information age. But I like to say we're really in the affirmation age because most people would rather be affirmed and comforted in what they already believe, rather than get informed with information, because it kind of shakes you up a little bit, just like you're going to be shaken up today. So I would say, don't only seek affirmation, which is what most people do, seek information as well, and then make up your own opinion. What is wealth? You know, we kind of begin with the end in mind. It's ask yourself what is? I think that there are a lot of different definitions for that. I mean, money's got to be one of the first things that come to mind. And we are talking about financial betterment here. But, you know, it seems like people that want material things more than experiences, it seems like a lot of those people that want material things get knocked and get criticized.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:23:21) - I don't know, like I would rather have experiences than stuff. But really the abundance mentality is why not have both experiences and stuff if they're both easily within reach? Because they really are. But I think really the best definition of wealth, it's one that I've never heard criticize once in my life is freedom. Having the ability for you to do whatever you want to do whenever you want to do it. Real wealth is having that time freedom and not having to have a job. Being job optional, you can continue to go if you want to. Wealth really is freedom. So let's talk about money and freedom and what freedom really isn't. I've actually got a really nice proposal for you. Just imagine this. Imagine you're 20 years old. I'm talking to the 20 year old version of you. I'm going to tell you that I want you to mow my lawn for me regularly, and I am going to pay you $114 an hour to mow my lawn. Pretty amazing, right? Like, doesn't that sound incredible? Yeah, that sounds like a good deal.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:24:29) - You'd probably be pretty excited about that. Maybe even now you'd be excited about that. Not just the 20 year old version of yourself. Sounds amazing, but could you ever really get wealthy off that? Probably not. Probably not. Because in fact, you would have to work every single hour in a year, all 8760 hours in a year just to make your first million bucks. And that ain't happening in this scenario is completely implausible. No one would really pay that much to mow the lawn, most likely. And you couldn't work every hour in a year. You couldn't eat, you couldn't sleep, nothing like that. So it's really numbers like this that I think kind of slap someone in the face if they think they can just hustle and grind their way to wealth. I really don't think that's the best way. In fact, what I would share with you is that this is the exact opposite of being wealthy. This is the opposite of growing rich in your sleep, because you have to continue to trade your time for dollars.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:25:32) - In order to make this work, you need to continue to sell your time for money in order to make this work. And then really, what happens when you come of age and get older and you're probably not mowing lawns for money anymore. You end up in a place that looks kind of like this. Okay? And this is the workplace. What happens in the workplace? I like to say the workplace is where you pretend to work and your employer pretends to pay you, but there's probably a pretty good chance, and I would probably call this a pre-COVID workplace. But, you know, you probably did spend most of your working years so far in a pre-COVID workplaces. People were packed in pretty tight right there that I think,, but don't worry about being in the workplace. You've got the commute to relax anyway, right? It shouldn't be so bad. You're grinding, trading your time for dollars. But also this worker here, they're doing something else that the lawn mower didn't do. Okay. We're going to say that you mowing the lawn that classified a poor person.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:26:31) - You had to work for money. But the middle class person here, they're also working for money. But they do have a better and higher use of their investing dollars. They're also getting some of their money to work for them in something like a 401 K or a 403 B, or a thrift savings plan, or an IRA or a 457 plan or something like that. So the middle class person here, they get some of their dollars working for them. That's significant. But look, here's the real point getting your money to work for you doesn't build wealth. And all these middle class people here, they think there couldn't possibly be anything better than me getting my money out there working for me. So I'll just leave it there. It can't get any better than having my money work for me. Well, that's not true. And I find it to be a real conundrum and paradox that people will spend tons of time learning about how work works. They spend zero time learning about how money works, but yet money is the only reason that they even go to work, which is really unusual to me.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:27:36) - So getting your money to work for you does not build wealth. Now, that doesn't sound too bad on the surface, but if you think about a 10% return over the long term from the S&P 500, which is about what you could expect, most people don't even consider the five deleterious drags on that 10% of inflation and emotion and taxes and fees and volatility, all five of those simultaneous drags. Now, I think some of these are easier to explain and understand than others. For example, if you have a 10% rate of return and 3% inflation, which is a long term historic term, you're already down to a 7% inflation adjusted rate of return. We haven't even subtracted out those other four things yet, and I like to look at things in really long timeline. So let's take a look at some long timelines with some returns you can expect. And therefore I also like to look at inflation in a long timeline. We'll call it 3% inflation. You've got to beat inflation substantially in order to have any real return.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:28:39) - And things like stocks mutual funds, ETFs just don't do it. So let's look at long timelines of let's say over 100 years here. I talked to you about the drag of inflation. Let's talk about the drag of volatility. This is little understood. Stocks are quite volatile. They go up and down. They're choppy where real estate is a substantially smoother ride. So let's look at two different lines here on this graph okay. Over the last 120 years since about the year 1900, the stock market has averaged roughly that 10% return, 6% from capital appreciation and 4% from dividends. So therefore, the Green Line, this shows capital appreciation. You're probably pretty used to seeing this. The compound return. This looks thrilling. Your mutual fund advisor loves to show you this line. This line goes like exponential. Like, who wouldn't want some of that, right? Some even believe Einstein was purported to say that compound interest is the eighth wonder of the world. So what's wrong with it? Where does it break down? Okay, well, I'm going to show you a second line.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:29:46) - And both of these lines show a 6% return from the year 1900, more than 120 years of returns. So the green line is what you think you got. But what did you really get with this 6%, quote unquote compounded return? You don't get this. You get this? That's what you really got. This is the deleterious effect of volatility on stock returns. You're like whoa, whoa wait. Well why why did that happen? How did that happen? The difference here is that whole effect of, let's say you have a $100 stock and it loses 50%. Now it's down to 50 bucks, but it gains back 50% the next year. Now it's only up to 75. So you've gone from $100 down to $75, even though you lost 50% in year one, say, and you gain 50% in year two. So it's really a mathematical problem. Another way to say it is that time spent making up previous losses is not the same as growing your money. It's not the same as compounding your money.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:30:51) - In fact, the tip of the blue line, the end of it there. Today's dollars. That's only 38% of what you get at the tip of the Green Line at what you expect to get. So a lot of investing has to do with expectations. If you expect a green line and you only get the blue line, that's when you end up like this. You know, sort of these stereotypical stock kind of photos when people can't pay the bills. And the interesting thing is we've been in a 401 K based world for 35 to 40 years now, where that's sort of the norm. People continue to end up like this, but yet they still get into 401 K's, and think getting their money to work for them is a way to build wealth. We're here and we're talking about why it isn't and that is the problem. And compound interest and compound interest does not bail people out of their income and savings problem either. Four out of five people have less than one year's worth of income, save for retirement.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:31:48) - This is why we have a retirement crisis today. You can't count on compound interest alone. So I would like you to imagine another pretty dreamy scenario for yourself. Okay. And this this is a pretty important exercise. This is some better news for you. I want you to think about how much money you think you're going to make, both earned and through investment returns your entire life. We'll say it's inside this vault right here. Okay. And the reason that this is some, some better news is, you know what? If you're in this room, the chances are that you're going to have a greater net worth and greater residual income than other people will. Because you've shown up here, you've shown that you're interested in this. And a lot of people, they don't think about inflation and they underestimate their life's earnings. So let's say that your entire life's net worth, accumulated assets would be the way to say it. Let's say your total accumulated assets are coming up to $8.5 million. How's that sound? $8.5 million.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:32:58) - That sounds pretty good, doesn't it? Wouldn't that be amazing? Now just imagine this. I'm going to give you all $8.5 million at one time. You're going to receive this all at once. How would that feel like? Wouldn't that be amazing? How fast are you going to quit your job? Hopefully you at least give the two weeks notice. Where are you going to go on vacation? Are you going to have time to care for your loved ones now, or be a volunteer at habitat for humanity? Or finally have time to be a deacon at your church? Or do whatever is important to you because you are job optional. Now with this 8.5 million delivered all at once. But wait, here's the thing I didn't tell you when the 8.5 million is being delivered to you all at once, it's all going to be delivered to you on the last day of your life. That's when you're going to get it. What do you do now? I guess you're not going to do around the world trip anymore, right? You're just saying your goodbyes to people.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:33:55) - It's the last day of your life. All right. What if you got 80% of this amount, then at age 80, would that be a little better or 70% at age 70? Would that be a little better? So my point is, timing matters. I don't know, what can you really do if you get 70% of it at age 70? You know, maybe when you're 73, that's the last year you can really paddleboard very well because you've had six knee surgeries by that or something. So timing really matters. So you really want to be invested in something that gives you an income stream that provides liquidity to you over time. You really ideally most want this sort of lifestyle smoothing effect where they get this income metered out to them. So liquidity really, really matters. And what helps achieve this smoothing it is those income streams. In fact, I would go as far as to say that the standard advice that you hear out there from people invest for your future, period. I'd actually say that's bad advice or incomplete advice.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:35:04) - Why would you only invest for your future when you can invest now for a stream of income now and not hemorrhage or sacrifice the future at all, which is really something that you can do with real estate. Build an income stream. Now, it typically appreciates faster than stocks and you didn't sacrifice the future at all., there's more bad advice out there. I think sometimes you'll hear a person say, for example, oh, pay yourself first. That means put your money in a traditional retirement plan or something like that. Pay yourself first. Wait a second. How in the world is it paying myself first if money is deducted from my paycheck when I'm, say, age 35 and I don't get that back until, say, I made 75, look what the 401 K the most popular plan in the United States. You cannot take penalty free distributions until between age 59.5 and 70.5. That's just when they begin. And you also must begin paying taxes on it at that time. So. Would you really find it a good trade if you trade away one hour of your 35 year old self? And in return, you get one hour of your 75 year old self.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:36:16) - Does that sound like a good trade? A lot of people that invest in these traditional retirement plans, that's really the trade that you're making. And I used to be involved in traditional retirement plans. I used to think they were the best thing until I looked at it. A lot of people talk about the benefits of delayed gratification, and I think delayed gratification. There's something implied in that being a desirable thing, that there's a positive outcome and that there's some big reward for delayed gratification. But it's definitely not guaranteed. We're not guaranteed tomorrow. So I think for one K plans, they're known as tax deferral plans. But I think you could just as easily call them life deferral plans because that's principally what they do in my opinion. So let's go back to the lawn mower. The lawn mower again, I'm classifying that as the poor or however the middle class are doing a little something different. Remember, not only were they working for money, they got some of their money to work for them, oftentimes in a retirement plan.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:37:14) - I guess they're symbolized by these,, what do they look like here? Construction engineers or something like that. They're middle class, the wealthy. You're doing something that the poor and the middle class aren't doing. The middle class. They get their money to work for them. What are the wealthy do? What is this guy doing right here? What does he have figured out? He knows the best and highest use of his investing. Dollar is not getting his money to work for him. It's getting other people's money to work for him. And in real estate, you can actually get other people's money to work for you three ways at the same time. And you can do it ethically. I think it's important to be ethical. You never get called a slumlord. Like, for example, my mission is to provide housing that's clean, safe, affordable and functional. You can use other people's money three ways at the same time will call this OPM Other People's money. You might have seen that abbreviation before.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:38:11) - You can do it three ways simultaneously with real estate. And you know, the great thing is you don't need any degree. You don't need any certification at all in order to ethically use other people's money three ways at the same time. The first way is with the bank's money. Like for example, the way I bought that first fourplex is with 3.5% of my own money, is a down payment, and I borrowed the other 96.5. So use the bank's money for the loan and leverage you use the tenant's money for that all important income stream, and for paying down your loan for you. And then the third way you use other people's money simultaneously in real estate is that you use the government's money for very generous tax incentives, like you can defer your capital gains tax endlessly. You can get a mortgage interest deduction. There's something called depreciation which shelters a portion of your rent income from ever getting taxed. Don't get your money to work for you. Or at least don't make that the focus. The focus should be on ethically getting other people's money to work for you.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:39:18) - And you know, I think really a concept like this harkens back to the late business philosopher Jim Rohn. Right? Jim Rohn said formal education will make you a living, but self-education will make you a fortune. So you really getting a condensed self-education right here? So let's just look at one of these three. Let's talk about that ten in income stream. That's the important one. That's the one where you build residual income. If you do want that freedom, if you do want to build enough of that residual income so that you can be job optional and do what you want to do, think about it conceptually. Think about how amazing it is that the tenant pays you what they pay you. The tenant pays completely one third of their income most of the time in rent to you one third of the time. So that is like you getting paid and that tenant going to work for you ten days every month. We'll call it the first ten days of every month just to work for you and to pay you.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:40:22) - Do you have any idea how amazing that is? Think about that. What other company gets one third of people's incomes and can do it at scale? Apple doesn't get one third of people's incomes. Think of all the stuff that people buy on Amazon, all those consumer products. But people still don't spend a third of their income on Amazon. So this is amazing. Like, who else gets this? Really nobody but you in real estate. So, you know, we're getting you to think differently here. This is just again one of the three ways that you can ethically employ other people's money. The others were the banks money and the government's money. We're talking about the tenants money here. All right. That was almost the first half of my presentation at the Spartan Summit. We are get rich education. So to review what you learned earlier in the show here today, keeping it real simple. High rates are for a strong economy, and low rates are for a weak economy. A fed pivot means when they reverse their monetary policy stance.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:41:31) - For example, going from raising rates to lowering rates. From that point where we left off on my presentation there, I go on to discuss more about the importance of cash flow, how leverage beats compound interest, inflation, property selection, properties to avoid, and more. If you'd like to watch all of that presentation, you can in entirety with the video on the get Rich education YouTube channel. Also, the link directly to that full video is in today's show notes. On the way out today, again coming up on a future episode retirement, we polled our great audience with the two you want to retire question. And we're also asking what is retirement anyway? We're discussing both of those huge questions coming up here on the show. If you'd like to hear that episode more, be sure to follow the show on your favorite podcast platform. Until next week, I'm your host, Keith Reinhold. Don't quit your day dream.

 

Speaker 6 (00:42:32) - Nothing on this show should be considered specific, personal or professional advice. Please consult an appropriate tax, legal, real estate, financial or business professional for individualized advice.

 

Speaker 6 (00:42:42) - Opinions of guests are their own. Information is not guaranteed. All investment strategies have the potential for profit or loss. The host is operating on behalf of get Rich education LLC exclusively. The.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:43:00) - The preceding program was brought to you by your home for wealth building. Get rich education.com.

Direct download: GREepisode493_.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 4:00am EDT

Get our free real estate course and newsletter: GRE Letter

Learn why inflation helps dishonest people and harms honest ones. I use an example of a honeymaker.

Both new-build SFRs and apartment units are being shrinkflated.

Landlords skimpflate by: delayed maintenance, transferring the electric bill to the tenant, adding a surcharge for storage locker use, firing the doorman, charging to park beneath the carport, or not replacing an old fridge.

Instead, raising the rent is the ethical thing to do.

To comfortably afford the typical US home, it took $59K in 2020 and $107K today.

In a sense, you’re both richer and poorer than your grandfather.

Learn why investing through IRAs is a poor strategy.

I compare RE market conditions from when I bought my first property in 2002 with 2024’s conditions.

Timestamps:

Inflation and Immorality (00:01:51)

Explanation of how inflation impacts the economy and the moral dilemma it creates for producers.

Housing Affordability (00:04:26)

Discussion on the impact of inflation on home affordability and the consequences for renters and homeowners.

Rental Affordability and Apartment Shrinkflation (00:05:47)

Insights into the shrinking size of new apartment units and the implications for rental affordability.

Impact on Middle Class and Homeownership (00:08:29)

Analysis of how inflation affects the middle class and the changing dynamics of homeownership.

Affordability by Metro Area (00:11:09)

Breakdown of home affordability in different metro areas and its correlation with real estate cash flow.

Impact of Inflation on Wealth and Society (00:17:11)

Discussion on the implications of inflation on wealth accumulation and its societal effects.

Conventional Finance and IRAs (00:24:45)

Brief mention of conventional investment vehicles like 401(k) and Roth IRA in relation to real estate investing.

Conventional Wisdom (00:26:36)

Challenges conventional financial wisdom, emphasizing real estate investment over traditional saving and budgeting.

Roth IRA vs. Traditional IRA (00:27:45)

Discusses the limitations and drawbacks of Roth IRAs and traditional IRAs in relation to increasing income and real estate investment.

Market Timing (00:28:59)

Emphasizes the importance of having a sound investment strategy and taking advantage of market conditions, using personal experience as an example.

Real Estate Market Comparison (00:30:14)

Compares the real estate market conditions in 2002 to those in the mid-2020s, highlighting changes in pros, neutrals, and cons.

Investment Uncertainty (00:32:53)

Addresses the uncertainty of investment and the need to adapt to shifting market conditions, emphasizing the importance of taking what the market offers.

Property Highlights (00:34:13)

Details three available investment properties in different locations, providing information on purchase price, rent, and potential cash flow.

Long-Term Investment Strategy (00:36:55)

Advises on the ideal holding period for rental properties and the benefits of new build properties in the current market cycle.

New Build vs. Resale Properties (00:38:02)

Discusses the advantages of new build properties and the potential impact of declining home price premiums on resale properties.

Investment Coach Contact (00:39:12)

Encourages listeners to contact investment coaches for assistance in exploring potential income properties.

Disclaimer (00:39:42)

Provides a disclaimer regarding the information presented in the podcast and advises consulting professionals for personalized advice.

Resources mentioned:

Show Page:

GetRichEducation.com/491

For access to properties or free help with a

GRE Investment Coach, start here:

GREmarketplace.com

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RidgeLendingGroup.com or call 855-74-RIDGE 

or e-mail: info@RidgeLendingGroup.com

Invest with Freedom Family Investments. 

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Complete episode transcript:

 

Speaker 1 (00:00:01) - Welcome to GRE. I'm your host, Keith Weinhold. Sure, you might find monetary inflation annoying today. Learn why inflation is even worse than you think. It is an immoral force. How bad homebuyer affordability has become by metro region. Then why conventional finance and IRAs don't move the meter in your life and more today on get rich education. When you want the best real estate and finance info. The modern internet experience limits your free articles access, and it's replete with paywalls. And you've got pop ups and push notifications and cookies. Disclaimers are. At no other time in history has it been more vital to place nice, clean, free content into your hands that actually adds no hype value to your life? See, this is the golden age of quality newsletters, and I write every word of ours myself. It's got a dash of humor and it's to the point to get the letter. It couldn't be more simple. Text gray to 66866. And when you start the free newsletter, you'll also get my one hour fast real estate course completely free.

 

Speaker 1 (00:01:18) - It's called the Don't Quit Your Daydream letter and it wires your mind for wealth. Make sure you read it. Text GRE to 66866. Text GRE 266866.

 

Speaker 2 (00:01:35) - You're listening to the show that has created more financial freedom than nearly any show in the world. This is get rich education.

 

Speaker 1 (00:01:51) - Welcome, Gary. From Gainesville, Florida, to Brownsville, Texas, and across 188 nations worldwide. I'm Keith Weinhold. Hold in your listening to get Rich education. I'm honored to have you here. Inflation is immoral. Now, at best, you might find what the central bank, the fed, does as annoying on the consumer level. It might even severely debase your standard of living, eroding away your one and only quality of life. But how does inflation have an immoral impact on you and the actors? In an economy? A honey maker sells his jars of honey for $20. The fed prints money like crazy. The money supply doubles well. The honey maker now has three options. Keep selling honey for $20, which is where he eats the loss and keeps providing honey for his customers at the same price.

 

Speaker 1 (00:02:51) - Secondly, he can water down the honey or use other inferior ingredients, which is known as skin deflation or shrink the honey jar size known as shrinkflation. The last option is to be honest and increase the honey price to $40. But if he behaves honestly, he drives away his customers and they look for honey elsewhere. So therefore, those that choose to water down the honey will outcompete the honest guy. And over time, what happens with currency debasement is the producers must now weigh their financial well-being with moral integrity. And that is the problem. This is why inflation has an immoral impact on human beings. It's also a contributor to why food quality suffered during the big wave of inflation in the 1970s and 1980s. It led to rampant obesity and prescription drugs, now comprising half of our TV commercials. All these people now walking around as near zombies that need their meds. And on top of that, somehow society has quickly come to believe that this is normalcy. Then the 2020 wave of inflation is both fueling that trend, and it's now making homes unaffordable for the middle class.

 

Speaker 1 (00:04:26) - As a landlord, the honest thing to do then is to raise the rent. It's not honey inflation or rent inflation because the honey maker and the landlord didn't create it. It is central bank inflation. Higher rent is simply the consequence of more dollars in circulation and simultaneously new build homes. They are indeed experiencing shrink inflation as a result of this currency inflation. I discussed the incredible shrinking size of new build single family homes with you last week, where that new home size has fallen 14% in the past decade plus or minus. Well, the average American apartment size that's falling to, yes, apartment developers in their new projects. They're cutting square footage, and they're doing that to try to contain rents. The square footage of apartment units being built has not been this small since at least last century, and maybe ever. Soaring construction cost. That means developers have got to either pass along all of those increases through into the rents, or find ways to limit rent. Or one way to do that is by building smaller units.

 

Speaker 1 (00:05:47) - Yes, apartment construction shrinkflation. And who can blame the builder? Because rental affordability has been of increased importance in recent years, and developers have got to be able to convince their investors and their lenders that there is going to be sufficient demand at proforma rent levels among apartment units completed in 2022. That's the most recent year available. Average unit sizes fell to 1045ft², and that is the lowest level on record for apartments. And we just got confirmation on that through the US Census Bureau figures. Yes, that is for newly built multifamily rental units that therefore apartment sizes are down 8% from just five years ago. And that number could drop a bit further when 2023 stats are released. Yes, American lifestyles are being shrink inflated. All over the place, and it is even worse for those that don't own assets. And a recent peak of apartment sized construction was 2013, when they were just over 130ft². And I told you that the latest figure here is, again, 1045ft². The Covid era really saw new build.

 

Speaker 1 (00:07:12) - Apartment sizes drop fast because that's when people started to split up. Like if they weren't a family. Now, when rents rise, whether that's for apartments or single family homes or self-storage units or whatever it is, most any kind of real estate, you know, when those rents rise, people try to keep from raising the rent sometimes. Now landlords, instead of raising the rent, they can instead skimp flat themselves. They can do that by delaying maintenance, transferring the electric bill to the tenant, adding a surcharge for storage locker use, firing the doorman, charging to park beneath the carport, or not replacing an old fridge. That might have given you some ideas there, but I do not advocate that. That's the best way. The bottom line is that inflation is not just a persistent economic affliction. It's an immoral force. And the ethical thing to do, like you learn with the honey maker, is raise the rent. Now, when wages don't keep up with prices, that's a problem. Let's take a look at just how bad affordability is.

 

Speaker 1 (00:08:29) - All right. Here is the lowest salary amount that US households need to at least earn to comfortably afford the typical priced US home. Okay, we're rounding to the nearest thousand dollars here in 2020. That figure was just 59 K. In 2024 it's 107 K. All right, 59 K in household income up to 107 K today to afford the typical US home. Astounding. That is up more than 80% in four years. But at the same time here's how bad it is. Median US household income did not keep pace. You probably figured that much. American incomes are not up 80% in the past four years, but in 2020, the household income, the median was 66 K. Today it's 81 K. Well, that's up only 23%. So the income needed to comfortably afford a home is up 80%, while the actual median income has risen just 23%. That's per Zillow. Well, who does this hurt the most? Of course, it hurts that prospective first time homebuyer, not just because they usually have entry level incomes as well, but it's because they don't have any equity to roll forward into a purchase.

 

Speaker 1 (00:09:58) - And when first time homebuyers never get that mortgage loan pre-approval, what happens? They have to rent. So this affordability trend is good for income property owners. And you know, this is one big reason why. For a while now, I have said that I expect the homeownership rate to fall and therefore for America to have more renters, more rental demand. Well, that has now begun to fall from 66% in Q3 last year to 65.7% in Q4 of last year, and expect a homeownership rate to keep dropping. And that share of renters in the United States to keep rising. Now, let's break down this poor affordability by city. Let's break it down by metro area. I'll start with some select lowest priced cities, and then let's work our way up to the highest price cities. And I'll tell you as we ascend, when we pass the national mark, and you're going to notice that the lowest price cities, which are the earlier ones that I mentioned here, they tend to be the better areas for real estate cash flow.

 

Speaker 1 (00:11:09) - Here we go. In 2020, the typical Pittsburgh home could be bought with a 35 K household income. Wow, that's low today. It takes 58 K Memphis a very popular investor city here at GRA. Maybe our top investor city that has gone from 38 K in 2020 to a 70 K household income today. And it appears that more people will have to rent in Memphis. Cleveland from 41 K up to 71 K, Birmingham 42 K up to 70 4KD. Fruit 45 up to 76. Buffalo 42 up to 77. Saint Louis 45 up to 77 Kansas City 52, up to 93 Houston 56 up to 95 San Antonio 57. Up to 95. Columbus, Ohio 52, up to 96 Chicago. Still pretty affordable for such a world class city, but the median household income required to afford the average Chicago home in 2020 was 65 K, and today it's 105 K, and then you've got that aforementioned national average, 59 K and income needed four years ago up to 107 K today Philly 61 K up to 109 Jacksonville 58 K up to 109.

 

Speaker 1 (00:12:46) - Minneapolis 72. Up to 114 Baltimore 70. Up to 114 Atlanta 59. Up to 115 Tampa 57. Up to 116 I mean, we're looking at more than a doubling in Tampa. Las Vegas 65 up to 120. Dallas 68. Up to 121. Phoenix 66 up to 131. We're looking at about a doubling of the household income that it takes to afford the median home in Phoenix just over the last four years. Miami 76 to 151. That's another basically a doubler there. Denver 101 up to 173. Boston 118 to 205. New York City 135 to 214. And we just got a few left here as we're getting close to the top. Seattle 120 to 214 and then the top three Los Angeles 158 K to 279 K San Francisco 220 up to 340 K today. And number one San Jose, California Silicon Valley 263 K up to 450 4k. That's how much a household needs to earn to afford the typical home in their local market. Not an extravagant home, not a home that's even above average, just the typical home in their local market, as calculated by Zillow.

 

Speaker 1 (00:14:31) - That's what's happened to affordability, basically since Covid began about four years ago. So some other takeaways from what I just told you about there. The correlation here is that lower priced metros often have high homeownership rates because they are more affordable. Yet, paradoxically, those places, those low cost places with high ownership rates are often the best markets for you to own rental property in due to that affordability. And this is not just true in the United States. When you look at Europe and we shared a map of this on our general education Instagram page last week, Europe also has higher homeownership rates in less expensive nations, led by Kosovo at an astounding 98% homeownership rate. Can you believe that 98% Kosovo, part of the former Yugoslavia and then Kosovo in the high ownership rate, is followed by Albania in second, Romania and third? And again, today's U.S homeownership rate is nearly 66%. And then, conversely, some of Europe's more expensive nations have the lowest homeownership rates. Switzerland is the lowest at just 42%, and that's followed by Germany in Austria, with the next lowest European homeownership rates with declining US affordability.

 

Speaker 1 (00:15:59) - I mean, sometimes, do you ever think that it just feels like dollars are losing all of their value? I mean, some of these figures just look like funny money anymore. If you visited U.S Debt Record recently, you'll see that our national debt keeps ticking up, nearing $35 trillion now. Now, I recently listened to two guys talking about rising prices back when they were kids and when they were kids, they thought that meant that the economy is prosperous. Have you ever thought that even as a kid, I didn't. I never thought that rising prices were some sign of economic prosperity, like when you were a kid, that pack of baseball cards going up from. $0.50 to $0.60 symbolize that economic prosperity was taking place somewhere else. I never thought that. I guess as a kid, though, I thought that if a 100 K home increased in price to 200 K, that it meant that it doubled in value, although it surely did not. I probably thought that as a kid before I understood things like inflation and leverage.

 

Speaker 1 (00:17:11) - But inflation is not some law of nature. Not at all. I mean, if you want to look at what happens is technology progresses. Well, of course prices should go down if we are picking apples by hand and then a machine comes along that picks apples 100 times faster, and you don't need to pay all these human harvesters anymore, well, then the price of apples should plummet. Prices should go way down as we get better at producing things. So just imagine how much higher prices would be today if there weren't these productivity gains that try to hold down the inflated prices just somewhat. My gosh. But instead, governments are incentivized to expand the money supply to pay for programs rather than tax you. What's the easiest way to pay for a $1 trillion federal infrastructure program? Just print a trillion bucks out of thin air. That way they didn't have to send you a tax bill because people don't like seeing tax bills. They didn't have to ask for your vote either. Just quietly print it. And now that they printed $1 trillion more, every single dollar that you're holding on to just got diluted.

 

Speaker 1 (00:18:29) - That's another reason that inflation is immoral. If you hold dollars in a savings account, fed inflation diluted it. If you hold dollars in a stockbroker as account inflation just diluted it. If you hold equity in a property, inflation just diluted it. Well what hedges you against inflation. Gold and bitcoin. They both break the government monopoly on money. That's just simply hedging yourself. And then what doesn't just hedge but help you profit from inflation. As we know that formula is income property with debt. Now the United Nations, they recognize 193 sovereign states across the world, but many with their own currency. And like I said, governments are incentivized to expand the money supply to pay for programs rather than tax you. It's not just an American thing. Everybody does it. It is just a race to the bottom with every currency, all of which eventually go to zero. Historically, they all have. Well, you and I, we actually gotten richer from our technology advancements in some ways. And at the same time, we are horror for our debased dollars by almost any standard out there.

 

Speaker 1 (00:19:59) - You and I are both richer than our grandfathers were. The technology is better. The iPhone in your pocket would blow away your grandfather or your great grandfather. But back in my grandfather's day. See, here's the difference. He could pay for both of his kids to go to college and do it without student loans. Grandpa could easily find a job in a factory, bought a house. His wife didn't have to work. He supported his kids. His wife was home so she could take care of the house and kids. We have lost that. That wave of high inflation in the 70s and 80s made it so that both parents had to soon work, eroding the nuclear family. Inflation destroys families because wages often don't keep up. When you have these ways of inflation, both parents work and the wife cooks last, meaning even more obesity. And now, in this era of inflation, the 2020s, the first time homebuyer has instead become the renter so that the median age of the first time homebuyer is now 36, per the Nar, which I think I mentioned on a show last year.

 

Speaker 1 (00:21:13) - And that number looks to be going higher. So the American dream, owning your home, it looks like that soon won't even begin until you're near 40. And it's not just a result of government inflation. Government regulation has driven up the cost of doing business, hence why the prices are so high. You're seeing more and more evidence of inflation widening this chasm between the haves and the have nots. I mean, Macy's, the department store they recently announced. Plans to reorganize their stores around this hollowing out of the middle class businesses are reacting, and inflation is the problem. In fact, it made a lot of news a few weeks ago. You might have seen this story where, gosh, can you believe that a public figure would say this out loud? Kellogg CEO Gary Pinnick commented on how Americans are dealing with high grocery prices when he was quoted as saying, cereal for dinner is something that is probably more on trend now. And he got blasted for it. From malnutrition to family erosion to unaffordable homes, inflation from the central bank is the culprit and it's reached levels of immorality.

 

Speaker 1 (00:22:35) - More straight ahead. I'm Keith Whitehouse and you're listening to episode 492 of get Rich education. You know, I'll just tell you, for the most passive part of my real estate investing, personally, I put my own dollars with Freedom Family Investments because their funds pay me a stream of regular cash flow in returns, or better than a bank savings account, up to 12%. Their minimums are as low as 25 K. You don't even need to be accredited for some of them. It's all backed by real estate and that kind of love. How the tax benefit of doing this can offset capital gains and your W-2 jobs income. And they've always given me exactly their stated return paid on time. So it's steady income, no surprises while I'm sleeping or just doing the things I love. For a little insider tip, I've invested in their power fund to get going on that text family to 66866. Oh, and this isn't a solicitation. If you want to invest where I do, just go ahead and text family to six, 686, six.

 

Speaker 1 (00:23:47) - Role under the specific expert with income property you need. Ridge lending Group Nmls 42056. In gray history from beginners to veterans, they provided our listeners with more mortgages than anyone. It's where I get my own loans for single family rentals up to four Plex's. Start your pre-qualification and chat with President Charlie Ridge personally. They'll even customize a plan tailored to you for growing your portfolio. Start at Ridge Lending group.com Ridge lending group.com. Hi, this is Russell Gray.

 

Speaker 2 (00:24:27) - Co-host of the Real Estate Guys radio show, and you're listening to get Rich education with Keith Reinhold. Don't quit your day dream.

 

Speaker 1 (00:24:45) - Welcome back to Jewish Education where we are day trading. We are decade trading. I'm your host, Keith Reinhold. As we approach springtime before your tenant considers moving out, this is the time to remind them of the cost of moving. I've seen landlords effectively do this with a well worded letter. If you're raising the rent, this could accompany that notice. Tell them how costly moving is, because tenants often don't realize that until it's too late.

 

Speaker 1 (00:25:16) - And moving is also one of the most stressful things that a human can do. Vacancy and turnover are your biggest expense, so you should consider doing this before your tenant makes moving plans, because by then it's too late. Andrew Carnegie said that 90% of all millionaires become so through owning real estate. I could still believe that 90% figure today. But sadly, Carnegie's quote wasn't quite inflation proofed, and I'm sure he would admit that if he were alive today, a net worth of $1 million today does not make you rich. Millionaire. Yeah, not a wealth marker, but it probably means that you aren't poor. But yeah, a millionaire is no longer that aspirational. multi-Millionaire might not be a net worth of $2 million or more if you're under, say, 60, a $2 million net worth, that probably means that you better keep doing something to generate income. Here at gray, we probably spend less than 5% of our content, or even less than 2% of our content here, describing what most people think of conventional investment vehicles like, say, a 401 K or a Roth IRA.

 

Speaker 1 (00:26:36) - Instead, we follow something more like what Andrew Carnegie said, because being conventional, it just doesn't get you anywhere. And trimming your expenses, that really doesn't move the meter much in your life, unless you do enough of it to make you miserable. Saving money by getting your haircut at home is not going to build financial freedom. How many at home haircuts would you need in order for that to happen? There's no number. Neither will finding a way to get a free Thanksgiving turkey, or saving $90 on a flight itinerary by adding a layover and losing three hours of your time. That's not respecting your own time. So this is why we don't talk about conventional stuff here. Savers lose wealth, stock investors maintain wealth, and real estate investors build wealth. But now really, why else don't we discuss something like the benefits of a Roth IRA or comparing them to a traditional IRA? The main difference there being with a Roth you fund with post-tax dollars, meaning that you pay the tax today versus a traditional IRA where you pay the tax later rather than now.

 

Speaker 1 (00:27:45) - Well, you can't draw the funds penalty free until you're older, for one thing. And also, if you're under age 50, you can only contribute $7,000 a year to an IRA, and it's a care year if you're over 50. It doesn't move the meter in your life. And also, since we're a show about increasing your income, not cutting your expenses in a don't live below your means, grow your means vein. Well, this year's Roth IRA income limits are 161 K for single tax filers in 240 K for those married filing jointly. All right. Well, if you are not there at that income level yet, you are targeting exceeding those limits. So you won't be qualifying to participate anyway. Even if you had wanted to 401 K's in IRAs, they take money out of your pocket every month and every year. And I said with income property, you made a plan to put more money, tax advantaged money in your pocket every month and year. And this is all why I frown on budgeting, too.

 

Speaker 1 (00:28:59) - Now, one classic investor axiom that makes a little more sense to me is that you can't time the market. This is precisely why time in the market beats timing the market. Another phrase you've surely heard. I think that another way to say this is take what you've been given. Yeah. In general, once you've got a sound strategy, take what you've been given. The epiphany of real estate pays five ways is a motivator to adding more property. For example, when I bought my first property, yes, that modest and seminal Blue fourplex in 2002, there were pros and cons to buying 22 years ago. Just like there always are. Well, what I did is I took what I was given because I begin to understand how real estate could benefit me. And do you want to know what the market conditions were like back then? Let's look at this and compare this to today's income property market. This will be really interesting. What are the big factors that have changed in 22 years? Well, back in 2002 there were pros, neutrals and cons to buying.

 

Speaker 1 (00:30:14) - Then back then the pros were a good rent price ratio and I got a historically low six and 3/8 mortgage rate. Yes, I still remember that the neutral back then was an average vacancy rate, and the cons back in 2002 were low inflation, a high housing supply. The fact that I had made a $295,000 full price offer for that fourplex, which felt high at the time. I asked the owner if he'd come down and he said no. And another con is that I own in a small metro area, Anchorage, which was more vulnerable to economic change. That's something that I didn't even realize at the time. And another con to me, buying back then, as successfully as that turned out, was weak. Future demographics. Tenants quickly vacated because it was so easy for them to get first time homebuyer loans, liar loans amidst that loose lending environment. So right there were the pros, neutrals and cons in the marketplace. When I first started out taking what I was given, I took what the market gave me and became a profiteer.

 

Speaker 1 (00:31:32) - Once I had a strategy. Now this current environment, let's look at it. It could very well be better than when I started out. Here's what the market is giving investors here in the middle of the 2020s decade. The pros are low vacancy, higher inflation, though I would not call it high any longer. Another pro low housing supply. The polar opposite of when I begin there is strong future demographic demand. And another pro is like I've been touching on earlier here in that first part of the show, this dreadful first time homebuyer affordability. And what that does is that increases tenancy duration. Those are the pros today. The neutrals are strict loan underwriting and historically average interest rates okay. So those are both neutral conditions. And then the cons today are lower rent to price ratios and higher insurance premiums. So there they are. They're the progression of pros neutrals and cons in the real estate market. Since I bought my first property in 2002, one has got to own assets. When the middle class is hollowing out, it's caving in.

 

Speaker 1 (00:32:53) - No one wants to end up as desperate as Google's. I struggling to catch up with Microsoft and OpenAI. We don't want that to happen. And uncertainty. As you think about the future and growing your portfolio, you know, uncertainty that is an ever present condition with zero antidote. Uncertainty will only disappear when the world ends. These factors oppose neutrals and cons. They constantly shift. And in fact, life is about not knowing. The only safe years of your life are past years. Live in the question. Take what you've been given. That's the message here. Like I discussed last week, investor purchases are breaking records in today's environment. And speaking of today's market conditions, let me give you something tangible that you can really sink your teeth into with some real property addresses. These are ones that you find at Gray Marketplace. Let me start with the most expensive one first in San Antonio, Texas. It is a 2024 new build fourplex for a price of $1,100,000. Yeah. Hey, big spender, $1.1 million.

 

Speaker 1 (00:34:13) - The rent is $7,580. Class A neighborhood 5000ft², three bed, two baths per unit. Gosh, I wish this would have been my first ever fourplex. Mine was two beds, one baths, and when I bought it, it was about 20 years old. Well, the interest rate on this new build San Antonio fourplex is 4.25%. You need to use the seller preferred lender for that you're down. Will be $275. Projected monthly cash flow is $1,413. The second property is at 16 1027 Street Northeast in Canton, Ohio. Yes, canton, Ohio, the home of the Pro Football Hall of Fame, which I visited about five years ago. This is a single family rental in canton. The price is 130 K. The rent is 1125 B class neighborhood 1100 and four square feet. It was built in 1952. It has three beds in one bath. 33 K is the down payment, $279 of projected monthly cash flow. And then the last one that I'll detail here is 8700 East 79th Terrace in Kansas City, Missouri.

 

Speaker 1 (00:35:35) - It's also a single family rental 213 K purchase price. The rent on it is 1875. And gosh, that is a really good rent to price ratio. They're almost 9/10 of 1% here in Kansas City. B is the neighborhood class. It's 1180 eight square feet built in 1967, four beds, two baths. And it is a down payment of 53 K down with a projected monthly cash flow of $449 there in this Kansas City single family rental. Now you don't want to count on rent increases, but rents in the Midwest are now rising faster than any other region in the whole nation. And that's not hard to do, by the way, because in most U.S. regions, rents are hardly rising at all today. Now, as far as homes built in the 50s and 60s, although it's still good for you to mark more for maintenance expenses on properties of that age. You recall that I said earlier that you're likely doing more decade trading than day trading with these rehabbed or new build investor homes and 7 to 10 years.

 

Speaker 1 (00:36:55) - That's typically how long you want to plan on holding for, because by that time, or even earlier, it might have been as little as three years here recently. But by that time, sufficient equity has built up so that you want to sell in order to keep your return high and trade up tax free. Well, you only need new or rehabbed systems or components, therefore, to last 7 to 10 years, and you're typically selling the property before you need anything like a new roof or new Hvac. I personally don't believe I've ever held any rental property for more than ten years now, as I gave details of those three available properties there. This really is a time in the market cycle for you to consider new build properties. If you can swing the higher price, and that's for a lot of reasons you probably realize. The first one is that because builders are still buying your rate down for you to under 6%, you saw their with that San Antonio new construction fourplex, how a builder is buying down your rate to 4.25.

 

Speaker 1 (00:38:02) - Gosh, another trend that's been developing is the new home price. Premium over resale property seems to have declined substantially in the US, but builders just cannot keep doing these rate buy downs forever. Once rates go down, they're going to have less incentive to do them. For one thing, there won't be a need there. And also see, it depends on the builder, but a lot of builders, they bought land back in 2021 that they're only building on today, and those builders got to pay lower 2021 prices for that land that they're now building on. Will in a year or two, when builders are selling property where they had to buy the land in 2023, that is going to be reflected in higher prices in a year or two. So go new build if you can swing it. If not, you've got your 7 to 10 year hold strategy for resale properties, and that's 7 to 10 year hold. Strategy also applies to new builds on a scarce asset that everyone is going to need all 340 million Americans.

 

Speaker 1 (00:39:12) - And if any of these income properties or ones like those seem interesting to you, go ahead and contact your gray investment coach. If you don't have one, they'll help you for free. And our coaches really just make it easy for you. You can book a time right on their calendar, set up a friendly zoom or phone call, and strategize at Gray marketplace.com. Until next week, I'm your host, Keith Weintraub. Don't quit your day dream.

 

Speaker 3 (00:39:42) - Nothing on this show should be considered specific, personal or professional advice. Please consult an appropriate tax, legal, real estate, financial or business professional for individualized advice. Opinions of guests are their own. Information is not guaranteed. All investment strategies have the potential for profit or loss. The host is operating on behalf of get Rich education LLC exclusively.

 

Speaker 4 (00:40:11) - The preceding program was brought to you by your home for wealth building. Get rich education.com.



Direct download: GREepisode492_.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 5:00am EDT

Others quietly fund a savings account for you with every income property that you own. 

This is known as your ROA, your Return on Amortization. Primary residence owners don’t have this benefit.

Tenants rent a property from you. To own the property, you got to “rent” the money from the bank.

Landlord tipflation: have you ever asked your tenant for a tip? I don’t recommend it.

Integrity: Now that the statistics are in, I follow up on my 2023 Home Price Appreciation (HPA) Forecast. See how it went.

When measuring HPA, I explain why I use existing home prices, not new home prices.

The size of a new-build home has shrunk 12-15% in just the last decade.

Learn about the surprising correlation between rents and home prices. Be honest. Is it completely different that what you thought?

Redfin just reported that real estate investor purchases are breaking records.

Find the right income property for building your wealth. Our GRE Investment Coaches provide you with free guidance at GREmarketplace.com

Timestamps:

Welcome to Get Rich Education (00:00:01)

Introduction to the episode and a brief overview of the topics covered.

The Benefits of Real Estate Investing (00:01:58)

Discusses the benefits of investing in real estate, including equity growth, cash flow, tax benefits, and inflation profiting.

Tenant-Made Equity Growth (00:02:47)

Explains how tenants contribute to the landlord's equity growth through monthly principal pay down.

Landlord Tip Inflation (00:06:39)

Compares the lack of tipping in the landlord-tenant relationship to other service interactions and discusses the concept of "landlord tip inflation."

Review of Home Price Appreciation Forecast (00:09:06)

Reviews the accuracy of previous home price appreciation forecasts and discusses the factors influencing the real estate market.

Use of Existing Home Sales Numbers (00:13:01)

Explains the rationale for using existing home sales numbers in home price appreciation forecasts and discusses the trend of new home construction.

Impact of Population Growth on Real Estate (00:17:03)

Highlights the impact of population growth on real estate prices and rental demand, emphasizing the significance of demographics in real estate investing.

Special Episode Announcement (00:21:33)

Announces the upcoming special episode 500 and expresses gratitude to listeners, particularly those from Colombia.

Listener Guest Invitation (00:22:43)

Encourages listeners to share their experiences and the impact of the show on their lives, inviting them to become guest speakers on the podcast.

The surprising correlation between rents and home prices (00:26:07)

The correlation between the direction of rents and home prices, and how they move together.

Investor purchases breaking records (00:29:21)

Insights on the increasing investor purchases, housing shortage, and the impact on the real estate market.

Real estate anniversary (00:32:11)

Keith Weinhold's heartfelt reflection on his parents' 50th anniversary in the same home, emphasizing the significance of providing people with a home.

Commitment and growth in real estate investing (00:33:46)

Encouragement to commit to real estate investing, learn, grow your portfolio, and build your empire.

Conclusion and disclaimer (00:37:10)

Disclaimer and conclusion of the podcast episode.

Resources mentioned:

Show Page:

GetRichEducation.com/491

For access to properties or free help with a

GRE Investment Coach, start here:

GREmarketplace.com

Get mortgage loans for investment property:

RidgeLendingGroup.com or call 855-74-RIDGE 

or e-mail: info@RidgeLendingGroup.com

Invest with Freedom Family Investments. 

You get paid first: Text FAMILY to 66866

Will you please leave a review for the show? I’d be grateful. Search “how to leave an Apple Podcasts review” 

Top Properties & Providers:

GREmarketplace.com

GRE Free Investment Coaching:

GREmarketplace.com/Coach

Best Financial Education:

GetRichEducation.com

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text ‘GRE’ to 66866

Our YouTube Channel:

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Follow us on Instagram:

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@keithweinhold

 

Complete episode transcript:

 

Keith Weinhold (00:00:01) - Welcome to GRE. I'm your host, Keith Weinhold. Today, get in on a savings account that others fund for you. Landlord Tip Foundation a follow up to see how my last home price appreciation forecast actually performed. The surprising way that rents correlate with home prices. Investors are now feeling a record share of property buys and a heartwarming 50 year anniversary that I'm in awe of today. An get rich education. When you want the best real estate and finance info. The modern internet experience limits your free articles access, and it's replete with paywalls. And you've got pop ups and push notifications and cookies. Disclaimers are. At no other time in history has it been more vital to place nice, clean, free content into your hands that actually adds no hype value to your life? See, this is the golden age of quality newsletters, and I write every word of ours myself. It's got a dash of humor and it's to the point to get the letter. It couldn't be more simple. Text gray to 66866.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:01:17) - And when you start the free newsletter, you'll also get my one hour fast real estate course completely free. It's called the Don't Quit Your Daydream letter and it wires your mind for wealth. Make sure you read it. Text gray to 66866. Text gray 266866.

 

Corey Coates (00:01:42) - You're listening to the show that has created more financial freedom than nearly any show in the world. This is get rich education.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:01:58) - Welcome to GRE, from Italy's Sorrento Peninsula to America's Florida peninsula and across 188 nations worldwide. You're listening to the 491st consecutive weekly installment of the get Rich education podcast. I'm your host, Keith Weinhold. And when you invest in real estate with a strategy, which is what we've discussed here for over nine years, you can't help but be a profiteer, even a wild profiteer. It might feel like so much money is falling out of the sky that you might need an umbrella to keep yourself from being hit with it. Raining Benjamins. In fact, with one of the five ways that you expect to be simultaneously paid. All right, let's not focus on the equity growth here, which has been torrid the last four years.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:02:47) - Not the cash flow, which has been slowed lately, not the tax benefits or the inflation profiting benefit. What else is there that ROA you return on when we talk about so much money falling out of the sky that you catch a case of affluenza, that ROA, it's really one of your quieter profit centers. It is like a savings account that someone else is funding for you. Let's say that you check in at your table of your typical mortgage income property, and it shows that it has $400 of monthly principal pay down. All right. Well, imagine if you had a number of economic actors say you own six rental properties, and then you've got six tenants, six economic actors, perhaps people that you've never met. And all six of them are putting 400 bucks a month into a savings account with your name on it. That is $28,800 a year. That goes into your quote unquote, savings account. Yeah, nearly 30 K a year that your net worth is growing by that you hardly even think about.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:04:02) - And it's all just part of the profitable background noise that you hardly even hear, along with your leverage depreciation, cash flow taxes and inflation, profiting your tenant builds up your equity. This way, even if your property didn't appreciate at all. And again, in your own primary residence, your ROA is zero because you had to work to pay down your principal, your tenants not doing it for you. Now, this account that they're funding for you, it's not as liquid as a savings account, but it's perhaps more like an old bank CD, a certificate of deposit. It's your money, but you can't access it. In a couple minutes. You would need to do a sale, or you could do a cash out refinance and then it's yours. Your ROA is your tenant made annual principal pay down divided by your equity. Okay. And what if you had more and larger properties? Then this small example I gave you the quietly increases your net worth nearly 30 K every single year. Well, a lot of investors have more or a larger properties where you might have 300 K in annual principal pay down alone.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:05:22) - The more rental properties you own, the more tenants you have that month in, month out. Every single month they fund a low liquidity savings account with your name on it. And think about it. How did you get in this advantageous position? Well, first you educated yourself. You'll know that they will rent the property from you. And how did you get the property? You don't own an outright. That typically implies too much opportunity cost to have the entire value of your property tied up and paid off. Although they rent the property from you, you got to rent 80% of the money from the bank to buy the property with reap the reward, and you might have to use that umbrella to avoid getting rained on. With the financial windfall. And residential real estate investors have been feeling the rain pouring down for the last three four years. Many commercial real estate investors with short term mortgages don't feel the same way now when you're paid five ways, which has been enhanced by inflation since 2021, you don't really need tip inflation.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:06:39) - Hunt up of that. In fact, have you ever asked your tenant for a tip, or has a tenant ever paid you a tip for providing housing for them? I wouldn't expect it. It hasn't happened to me. In fact, I've never heard of it. But if. If so, tell us about it right into us at get Rich education. Com slash contact. That's our contact page. A tip for your landlord. Now, think about it this way. You've got all these people asking for tips, really, since the pandemic began. And that's when it really heated up. And then the pandemic receded. And yet the tip requests persist. Baristas, delivery people, fast food workers and the parade of other micro interaction participants that you encounter throughout the day. Those people have no shame in asking you for a tip, and that's even if the service is poor. Now, I'm not saying that you should or shouldn't tip them, but they are micro interaction participants in your life because they're just handing you a coffee, or they're handing you another drink that has too many ice cubes in it.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:07:55) - On the other hand, what you do is you provide tenants with the roof over their head 30 days in a row, 24 hours a day. By buying the property, you educated yourself. You sunk in a down payment. You build up your own good credit to get a loan to provide housing for a stranger. Well, I guess you'll be asking your tenant a new question each month. Would you like to tip me 18%, 20%, or 25%? Landlord tip inflation? No, I doubt that you're really going to do that. But this is the case that compared to the service level from vendors that you interact with at a lower economic level, you sure could ask for this landlord tip inflation. Let me know if it's ever happened to you now, starting at the end of 2021, near the end of each year here on the show, I have provided you with a home price appreciation forecast for the following year. Well, we have got the results now from last year, so let's check the performance.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:09:06) - And yeah, don't you wish everyone that made predictions or forecast they reliably review them and followed up with how they actually performed. That's what we're going to do here. Now there are some things that I don't like to predict. In fact, I was the guest on Tom Wheelwright’s show at the end of last year as his 2024 Real estate predictions expert. And if you watch that, he really had to press me to get my mortgage rate forecast. I told him back then that 6% by the end of the year was my best guess. But that's all it was not formulaic, not a forecast, and not a 100% confidence level at all. So when we talk about Gray's home price forecasts and our track record, let me share a little context with you here. First, so many other people, including some expert peers that I actually respect. They really got home price appreciation so wrong in this era, especially in 2021. That's when many forecast a home price crash 2021. That's the year we had the highest home price appreciation in a long time, nearly 20% nationally.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:10:23) - And of course, I have never called for any national home price downturn at all, even a mild one. I'm on record here on the show back in 2020 and 2021. That is when I shared the fact that, look, this administration, our elected officials, whether you like them or not, for better or for worse, they don't want to see people kicked out of their homes and living on the street back then. Remember, like mortgage loan forbearance. But at the end of 2021, I forecast a cooling down of home price appreciation. And I told you then that I expected 9 to 10% for 2022. And at the end of 2022, the result was indeed 10% home price appreciation. And then at the end of 2022, we had already seen mortgage rates spike two and a half times from their lows. And again, many said that was going to catch up with us so that in 2023, home prices would just have to sink. No, they didn't sink. That's when I told you that the only housing crash was going to be a supply crash, and the higher mortgage rates actually correlate with higher home prices, not lower ones.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:11:39) - That's what historically happens. And I said right here on the show that home prices absolutely can't crash. In fact, they won't fall at all. So 0% was my forecast for last year. No gain, no loss. We now have the number in. Only for last year. Yes, real estate statistics can move slower than an Alaskan glacier. Well, it affirmed that indeed, prices didn't fall. They came in up 3.5% last year. That's the result. We'll round it up to 4%. And we maintain a consistent data set here. The same measuring stick. And that is the Anna's national median single family existing home price. Let me just add that of course I'm neither omniscient nor clairvoyant. I'm giving you the best information my research can provide. It is surely possible that I'll get it wrong sometime. I just haven't yet. Now. And you learn something about real estate here. Why do I use only the existing single family home number? Therefore, why exclude no new build homes? Well, in short, this is how you better compare apples to apples.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:13:01) - New home construction changes over time. And in fact, the trend for the last decade is that new build homes are shrinking in size and are also being built closer together to each other when they're constructed. So you can see how this disrupts the apples to apples comparison. Ten years ago, the existing single family home was about 1600 square feet and is still 1600 today. But ten years ago, a new build, single family home was about 20 300ft². And it's just 2000ft² today, or 2036 to be exact. So yeah, new build sizes have shrunk 12 to 15% in just the last decade. So this is why I use existing home numbers. And by the way, this shrinking trend, this is the opposite of the early 2000 trend. When you saw a super sizing of homes about 20 years ago, that's when the term McMansion really increased in popularity there about 20 years ago. But it's the opposite now. The shrinking new home trend looks to pick up steam because, like I talked about a few weeks ago, affordability is down.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:14:19) - Remember, it's worse than it's been since George Jefferson was on television 40 years ago. Don't let's not play The Jeffersons theme music again. The deluxe apartment in the Sky. We played that two weeks ago. Moving on up to the East side. I think that's the music that meant Manhattan's Upper East Side. For those uninitiated on that, that has long been one of New York City's most affluent neighborhoods. Yes. Then the Jeffersons were also funding their landlords return on amortization and more. But getting back to today's new home construction, you can. Therefore, you could say that homes are experiencing shrinkflation today from about 2300ft² to 2000ft² in just a decade, and you can easily see that falling below 2000ft² within two years here. Yes, that type of shrinkflation is more impactful than you paying the same for your shrinking jar of prego spaghetti sauce. Now that you understand why existing home sales numbers are used in Jerry's Home price depreciation forecasts sourced by the Nar, you'll recall that at the end of last year, I forecast 4% home price appreciation for this year.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:15:43) - We'll check back on that in one year's time. Now, that's amidst the fact that I understand we've got high asset prices all over the place right now, almost everywhere you look, a record high US stock market near record highs in Bitcoin and near record highs in home values. Yes, more home price appreciation is likely. In fact, real estate investor purchases are breaking records. I've got more to tell you about that later. In fact, there is even more fuel being poured out of the housing record right now. And this was breaking news a couple of weeks ago in our Don't Quit Your Daydream newsletter. So if you're a reader, you saw it. And that is the fact that population growth drives real estate prices and rents. News broke that we just experienced the largest one year population increase in all of American history, with an astounding 3.8 million. Our population was up 3.8 million people last year, more than ever in previous census estimates of a 1.6 million person increase had underestimated immigration flows. This was reported in Newsweek and elsewhere.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:17:03) - Now, look, I've been directly investing in real estate since 2002, and I have rarely encountered a supply demand inflection point like this that requires such attention from you, locating an available property that is already more elusive than finding the missing car keys, and it's going to get even more scarce. This has the appearance of an astounding real estate investment window that we are now entering. See, in most asset classes, the future is largely unknown. Like in stocks, futures markets, derivatives, bonds, crypto, gold, oil, all kinds of other commodities. There are so many unknowns there. And real estate has unknowns too. But there are no three giant certainties for residential real estate in America going forward. Number one is more inflation. Number two is a prolonged scarce housing supply. And thirdly, it is astoundingly good demographics that fuel more demand. This third one is newer. And this is what I'm highlighting here. The demographics were already good, but it's just been turned up another notch. All three of these things are inevitable, and so many people try to predict the future and they fail.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:18:30) - But these three profitable real estate tailwinds for investors are as assured. I mean, there is a third. Is you forgetting someone's name immediately after they introduce themselves? Yeah. The way to get around that is to recite their name back out loud as soon as you meet them. But what I'm getting at is that this is not hyperbolic to call this potentially a once in a decade opportunity. Other high income countries like Japan and so much of Western Europe, they are sweating buckets, thinking about how their nation's aging populations are sending them over a demographic cliff. And besides just the magnitude of the population growth, again, the biggest one year increase in American history, understand that America's largest group of immigrants are working age producers aged 25 to 54, and they are overwhelmingly renters, not homeowners. So this is your surge in rental demand and this immigration surge. It may or may not last, depending on policy, regulation and the presidential election outcome late this year., you know, Jeff Bezos discussed this one time.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:19:55) - He discussed about how everyone wants to know the future and understand this. You already know more about the future than what you think, whether it's about your future business life or your investing life or your family life, or the way that you're thinking about technology in autonomous cars or flying cars, in machine learning and artificial intelligence, you know, with things that a lot of people, they ask themselves a question about the future, and they ask, what will be different in ten years? Well, there's nothing wrong with that question. In fact, it's a perfectly good question. But instead, ask yourself the opposite. What will be the same in ten years? Yeah. What will be the same in ten years? Now, black swans aside, in real estate investing, it is indeed those three things more inflation, a prolonged scarce housing supply, and astoundingly good demographics for rental demand. That's what will be the same. And now you have the basis for a sustainable wealth strategy. The bottom line is that even if it comes to a sudden stop, the addition of an all time record 3.8 million Americans in one year, that has left an indelible mark on real estate demand, the economy, and nearly all of society.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:21:33) - Residential real estate investors are going to own a scarce asset that everyone will need. You're listening to get resuscitation. It's episode 491, and that means that we're just nine weeks away from what is going to be a special, unforgettable episode 500. It's an episode that you probably want to listen to more than one. Coming up in two months on May 6th. And I'll tell you, I really know how to put the performance pressure on myself for May 6th, don't I?, hey, I really want to give a shout out to our great listeners in Columbia. Last month, I spent nine days in Colombia and eight days in Ecuador exploring a coffee farm, checking out urban sites and doing some Andes mountaineering, taking in the best of steak, coffee, chocolate and fruits to. And I've got to say, when Colombians learned that I was there, you Colombians were amazing at reaching out, making me feel welcome, telling me how the show has helped you. Ecuador. And it wasn't quite the same. I love you and your beautiful nation, but frankly, I didn't hear much from the Ecuadorian listeners.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:22:43) - I don't know why there was a big difference there, but I'm appreciative of some of the South American listenership for a show that's based on about 95% US real estate here. Speaking of listeners and the show, at times, we have listeners here on the show. If gray has impacted your life and you'd like to come on the show and tell us about it, I and our audience like hearing from you and how an abundance mindset and real estate investing has changed your life right into us. At our contact page again, get rich education. Com slash contact and tell us about yourself. We've had some really cool listener guests here on the show, like Grammy Award winning music producer Blake La Grange, the inventor of a home fitness system, Sean Finnegan, and even my former coworker that used to have a neighboring cubicle right next to me, back when I had a day job in a fertile who became a listener. If you think you're just maybe a boring accountant with a spouse and two kids, but Jerry has influenced you, well, you're exactly who we want to hear from a write in and let us know.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:23:53) - Coming up next, hear the surprising correlation between rents and home prices. Then investor purchases are breaking records in more. I'm Keith Weinhold, you're listening to get rich education. You know, I'll just tell you, for the most passive part of my real estate investing, personally, I put my own dollars with Freedom Family Investments because their funds pay me a stream of regular cash flow in returns, or better than a bank savings account, up to 12%. Their minimums are as low as 25 K. You don't even need to be accredited for some of them. It's all backed by real estate and that kind of love. How the tax benefit of doing this can offset capital gains and your W-2 jobs income. And they've always given me exactly their stated return paid on time. So it's steady income, no surprises while I'm sleeping or just doing the things I love. For a little insider tip, I've invested in their power fund to get going on that text family to 66866. Oh, and this isn't a solicitation.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:25:01) - If you want to invest where I do, just go ahead and text family to 66866. Role under this specific expert with income property, you need. Ridge lending Group NMLS 42056. In gray history from beginners to veterans, they provided our listeners with more mortgages than anyone. It's where I get my own loans for single family rentals up to four Plex's. Start your pre-qualification and chat with President Caeli Ridge personally. They'll even customize a plan tailored to you for growing your portfolio. Start at RidgeLendingGroup.com. RidgeLendingGroup.com.

 

Matt Bowles (00:25:48) - Hey, everybody, this is Matt Bowles from Maverick Investor Group. You're listening to Get Rich Education with Keith Weinhold. And don't quit your daydreaming.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:26:07) - Welcome back to Get Rich Education. I'm your host, Keith Weinhold. As I like to say, history over hunches, it's easy to have a hunch about how something works in real estate. But take a look at history and see what really happens. History over hunches. So to that point, you might be surprised at the correlation between the direction of rents with respect to home prices.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:26:31) - Now, the cost of rent has grown over the last 12 years. That's not news to anybody, but many think that rents and home prices move inversely. If demand for home purchases falls, then rents rise, right? No. Instead, they move together. When rents move up, home prices tend to move up to. Rents rose gradually from 2012 to 2020, and they rose rapidly since 2020. Well, home prices, they behaved in a similar way. They also rose modestly from 2012 to 2020, and they rose rapidly since then. Rinse and home prices have therefore been positively correlated. And in fact, I've been investing long enough to remember that when the home price bubble burst from 2008 to 2010, where rents fell a little. Then to an underscore my point some more, both rents and prices bottomed together around 2011. Yes, I think most real estate investors believe that this positive correlation is less likely than that. A movie about Barbie could ever reach $1 billion in sales. Well, that happened too.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:28:01) - So I simply look at what really occurs when I do my research. It's history over hunches, and that's why these should not be mind blowing discoveries. Just look at what really happens. So if your tenant balks that rents are rising, well, you know what? Home prices are probably rising to the bottom line here with rents and prices being correlated, is that whether it's to rent or own, wait a million homes when the economy grows, that is the real history over any other hunch. Now, as a wealth building show here I am empowering you with the information that you need to improve yourself. You can't follow the herd. You've got two choices. Either you can be a conformer or you can build wealth. Your wealth is not coming from anyone else. Chances are a rich uncle won't be helping you. In fact, getting an inheritance remains a rarity in the US yet as of 2022, data from the Federal Reserve shows only about a fifth of American households had ever received an inheritance at all. And it gets worse.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:29:21) - According to NYU, the most common inheritance amount is between 10,000 and $50,000. Yeah, that's enough to fund your life for one average month, or maybe one good month, depending on how you're living. The good news is that great listeners and others are getting the message, because last month, Redfin reported that real estate investor purchases are breaking records. Yes, investors bought 26% of the country's most affordable homes in the latest quarter ended, and that is the highest share on record ever. We've got all these on record ever sort of things that we're talking about on the show today. Yes, Redfin let us know that low priced homes are increasingly attractive to investors in today's environment. Redfin agents in Florida and California report that investors are the ones hungry for homes, but they can't find properties to purchase due to an ongoing housing shortage. But we can help you with available supply here at gray. But these overall record investor purchase figures they are, according to a Redfin analysis of county home purchase records across 39 of the most populous US metro areas, not just a couple states.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:30:45) - There are a lot of investors out there fighting for properties, said a Redfin premier agent in Orlando, Florida. There just aren't enough properties to go around, which is putting a cap on how many homes investors can buy. In fact, single family homes represented over two thirds of investor. Purchases. So congratulations, you are acting. You are making it happen in this canyon, this chasm, this divide that's opening up between the haves and have nots, shrinking the middle class. You are getting on the right side of that. I want to tell you more about being an investor shortly. But first, I have somewhat of a heartfelt real estate anniversary for you, and it has to do with my own family. March 5th, 1974 is a special day. You might note that tomorrow will be the 50th anniversary of that special date. Now look, I can remember every single place that I've ever lived. The modest single family home that I grew up in, college dorm rooms, a pathetic pool house, efficiency apartment in Westchester, Pennsylvania, a condo, a house as an adult.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:32:11) - Can you can you remember every place that you've ever lived? There's a good chance that you can. It's how intimate, really and important real estate is to your life. And think about how significant you are. You're providing people with a home that they will always remember. This is key. Think about how this contrasts. If you supplied the world with software packages or patio furniture, that stuff is forgettable. You're doing something significant when you help abolish the term slumlord and provide other people with that clean, safe, affordable, functional housing. Well, tomorrow my parents, Curt and Penny Weinhold, will have lived in the same home for 50 years. 50 years in the same home for my parents in sleepy and remote Appalachia. Coudersport, Pennsylvania. I asked my dad about that recently, and he said that when the paperwork with the lawyer was finished, he recalled walking into the house and happily shouting. He was tired of renting. When I visit my parents annually in Pennsylvania, I am still sleeping in the same bedroom of the same home, on the same block in the same small town where they still live in the first home that I ever remember.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:33:46) - Great job Mom and dad. You committed. You married before you had my brother and I. You're still happy, you're still healthy, and you're still together. You're even in the same home I grew up in. I'm in awe. I won the parent lottery five decades in the same home. You know where the creaky spots in the floor are of that old Victorian place. And when my brother is there, the four of us know right where to sit in our same spots at that same kitchen table. And, you know, as tomorrow is an amazing 50 years there. There are some lessons in this. Find out what the great things in life are, learn about them and commit to them. Like me trying to be the highest man on earth recently, or you buying the property or getting married. So many of the most successful people get diligent and learn and then make lasting commitments. Being a real estate investing devotee is a commitment. Each property that you add is a small commitment itself. I encourage you to act if it resonates with you.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:35:03) - Learn and grow your portfolio. There are always going to be naysayers that try to hold you to the confines of conformity and mediocrity. So fear, uncertainty. Telling someone that times are uncertain is like telling someone that they're breathing air. Well of course, no kidding. Each condition, uncertainty and breathing air have persisted every day of your entire life. In the year 1920, ten kilos of gold would buy you an average home. Today, ten kilos of gold will buy you an average home. Home prices aren't high so much as the value of the dollar is simply down. Homes are not overvalued by the most timeless financial measure. Gold mortgage rates near 7% are still below. Their long term average. So go forth and build your empire. You can either teach a man to fish or give a man a fish. Here at Jerry, we do both. We teach them in or women to fish at get worse education. Com which this show is a part of and then a great marketplace. Com we give a man a fish.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:36:30) - We have the supply of housing. You have access to the national providers with the lower cost real estate that makes the best rentals. And starting about two years ago, we added free investment coaching here, giving you that fish and making it easier than ever to get started or get your next property. Play a game worth winning and commit to something worthwhile. If you haven't yet, I encourage you to look into that at GREmarketplace.com. Until next week, I'm.

 

Speaker 3 (00:37:03) - Your host, Keith Weinhold.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:37:05) - Don't quit your day dream.

 

Speaker 4 (00:37:10) - Nothing on this show should be considered specific, personal or professional advice. Please consult an appropriate tax, legal, real estate, financial or business professional for individualized advice. Opinions of guests are their own. Information is not guaranteed. All investment strategies have the potential for profit or loss. The host is operating on behalf of yet Rich Education, LLC exclusively.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:37:38) - The preceding program was brought to you by your home for wealth building. Get rich education.com.

Direct download: GREepisode491_.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 4:00am EDT

Owning raw land, timberland, and farmland is often the domain of the wealthy. This is partly because it is difficult to obtain loans for this property.

Today, we discuss an income-producing timberland that also tends to increase in value.

For under $7,000 you can own quarter-acre parcels of producing teak trees in Panama and Nicaragua.

You can invest yourself. All at once, this provides diversification with a hard asset in a foreign nation and a different product type.

Over a twenty-five year period, each $7K quarter-acre teak parcel is projected to return $94K. You get title to the property.

Learn more at: www.GREmarketplace.com/Teak

With ownership of two quarter-acre parcels, you can qualify for a second residency in Panama for under $22K with legal fees, etc.

A SFR does not grow into a duplex. But teak trees grow in volume while its unit price typically appreciates. Teak price growth is historically 5.5% annually.

I’ve met the company CEO and Chairman in-person. This provider has offered this opportunity for 24+ years.

They’ve recently added a sawmill, increasing profits.

What are the risks of teak tree investing? Disease, pests, fire, geopolitics and more. They are proven mitigation plans.

In-person teak tours for prospective investors are offered.

Trees grow through recessions, COVID, market cycles, and Fed rate decisions.

Learn more about teak tree investing at: GREmarketplace.com/Teak

Timestamps:

Welcome to Get Rich Education (00:00:01)

Keith Weinhold introduces the podcast and emphasizes the importance of real estate and financial information.

The US economy and land ownership (00:01:44)

Keith discusses the strength of the US economy and the importance of diverse and resilient real estate portfolios.

America's top 100 landowners (00:02:29)

Keith talks about the largest landowners in America and the reasons why land ownership is often associated with the wealthy.

Investing like a billionaire (00:05:32)

Keith introduces the topic of investing in producing land and the benefits of owning producing land.

Introduction to ECI Development (00:06:21)

Keith introduces Michael Cobb and discusses the company's projects in Latin America.

Marriott resort project in Belize (00:07:08)

Mike talks about the construction of a Marriott resort in Ambergris Key, Belize, and the challenges of financing such projects.

Development and tourism in Belize (00:08:37)

Michael Cobb discusses the development and popularity of Ambergris Key, Belize, and the involvement of major hotel brands.

Teak tree parcels investment (00:11:30)

Michael Cobb explains the investment opportunity in quarter-acre teak tree parcels and the generational wealth stewardship associated with it.

Reasons for teak investing (00:14:05)

Michael Cobb discusses the reasons why people are interested in teak investing, including hard asset diversification and international residency opportunities.

Cash flow cycles and teak investment (00:16:42)

Michael Cobb explains the 25-year cash flow cycle associated with teak investments and the generational income potential.

Optimal growing conditions for teak (00:19:26)

Michael Cobb discusses the optimal growing conditions for teak and the physical growth of the trees.

[End of segment]

Teak Plantation Locations and Growth (00:19:42)

Discussion on the optimal locations for teak growth and the historical track record of teak price growth.

Teak Price Growth and Business Plan (00:20:44)

The historical 55% annual increase in the value of teak and the business plan's conservative approach to teak price growth.

Physical Properties and Residency Opportunities (00:21:33)

The value of teak and the opportunities for achieving residency in Panama by owning teak.

Residency and Citizenship (00:24:33)

Differentiating between residency and citizenship in Panama and the process and benefits of obtaining permanent residency.

Sawmill and Value-Added Component (00:27:56)

The integration of a sawmill into the investment proposition and the value-added potential of processing teak into lumber.

Sawmill Investment Opportunity (00:30:07)

Details of the investment opportunity in the sawmill, including the expected return and investment structure.

Risks and Mitigation (00:32:41)

Discussion on the risks associated with teak plantation investment abroad and the mitigation strategies in place.

Property Management and Tours (00:35:25)

Outsourcing property management and the availability of tours to visit the teak plantations in Panama.

Long-Term Investment Perspective (00:37:43)

The long-term growth potential of teak investments and the comparison to the investment strategies of wealthy families and institutions.

Earth's Highest Real Estate (00:38:11)

Discussion about Earth's highest point, the equatorial bulge, and the location of teak plantations in Panama and Nicaragua.

Investing in Teak Parcels (00:38:11)

Information about purchasing teak parcels, the absence of loans, and the potential for building wealth through teak investments.

Consultation Disclaimer (00:39:34)

Disclaimer about seeking professional advice and the potential for profit or loss in investment strategies.

Resources mentioned:

Show Page:

GetRichEducation.com/490

Learn more about teak investing:

GREmarketplace.com/Teak

For access to properties or free help with a

GRE Investment Coach, start here:

GREmarketplace.com

Get mortgage loans for investment property:

RidgeLendingGroup.com or call 855-74-RIDGE 

or e-mail: info@RidgeLendingGroup.com

Invest with Freedom Family Investments. 

You get paid first: Text FAMILY to 66866

Will you please leave a review for the show? I’d be grateful. Search “how to leave an Apple Podcasts review” 

Top Properties & Providers:

GREmarketplace.com

GRE Free Investment Coaching:

GREmarketplace.com/Coach

Best Financial Education:

GetRichEducation.com

Get our wealth-building newsletter free—

text ‘GRE’ to 66866

Our YouTube Channel:

www.youtube.com/c/GetRichEducation

Follow us on Instagram:

@getricheducation

Keith’s personal Instagram:

@keithweinhold

 

Complete episode transcript:

 

Keith Weinhold (00:00:01) - Welcome to gray. I'm your host, Keith Reinhold. An affordable way to simultaneously invest like a billionaire. Get diversified in multiple ways with real estate. Help the earth. And if you prefer, even achieve residency in a second nation today and get rich education. When you want the best real estate and finance info, the modern internet experience limits your free articles access, and it's replete with paywalls. And you've got pop ups and push notifications and cookies. Disclaimers are. At no other time in history has it been more vital to place nice, clean, free content into your hands that actually adds no hype value to your life? See, this is the golden age of quality newsletters, and I write every word of ours myself. It's got a dash of humor and it's to the point to get the letter. It couldn't be more simple text gray to 66866. And when you start the free newsletter, you'll also get my one hour fast real estate course completely free. It's called the Don't Quit Your Daydream letter and it wires your mind for wealth.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:01:16) - Make sure you read it. Text gray to 66866. Text gray 266866.

 

Corey Coates (00:01:28) - You're listening to the show that has created more financial freedom than nearly any show in the world. This is get rich education.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:01:44) - What category? From Sorrento, Italy to Sacramento, California, and across 188 nations worldwide. I'm Keith Reinhold, and you're listening to get Rich education the Voice of Real Estate since 2014. As we're two months into the year now and the US economy has continued to stay strong. Let me ask, how's your portfolio doing and how resilient is your real estate? How diverse is it? How would you grade yourself on those criteria?

 

Donald Trump (00:02:17) - I would give myself, I would look, I hate to do it, but I will do it. I would give myself an A-plus. Is that enough? Can I go higher than that?

 

Keith Weinhold (00:02:29) - Well, well, whether your, I guess, straight A's or not. Consider this land report.com. They recently published a report about America's top 100 Las donors. Now, Lynn could be vacant and nonresidential, yet have active ranching or agriculture or forestry taking place.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:02:52) - That way the land produces something while it might increase in value at the same time. But the reason that often land is the domain of the wealthy is that it's harder to get loans for land, and therefore one must often pay all cash. Well, by the time they were done. Today, you'll learn about producing land that's actually available at such a low price point that alone typically is not required for you to buy it. In 2024, America's largest land owner is Red Emerson, and that's what the report found. Read and his family owned 2.4 million acres in California, Oregon and Washington through their Timber products company and the number since they became America's largest landowners in 2021, when they acquired 175,000 acres in Oregon from another timber company. Well, with that acquisition, the Emerson surpassed Liberty Media chairman John Malone's 2.2 million acres. And then in third place is CNN founder Ted Turner. Yeah, he's America's third largest landowner, with 2 million acres in the southeast on the Great Plains and across the West. And it was a few years ago now.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:04:05) - It was 2020 when news broke that Microsoft co-founder Bill gates was America's largest farm land owner, with more than 260,000 acres. So the wealthy are attracted to real assets that can produce yield in something like land, which they aren't making more of. That's the backdrop for today. Surely we'll talk about income producing land, although most years it won't pay out and it's available to any investor, big or small. But before we do, let me share that. About ten days ago, I climbed up the highest point on Earth here while we're talking about non-residential real estate. Well, where was it? Where was I? Yes, I was on Earth's highest piece of real estate. Kind of a trivia question here, and I used to think that that must mean Mount Everest, but it's not. So there's a clue for you there. Where is Earth's highest point is you ponder that. I'll give you the answer later. Let's talk about investing like a billionaire with the opportunity to own producing land did it to you? We've discussed this topic before, but it's been quite some time and there have been some important updates, including a sawmill for the production timber.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:05:32) - After success in the computer industry, today's guest formed ECI development in 1996. I suppose going on nearly 30 years now. He served on advisory boards for the Na as a resort community developer. They have projects in Belize, Nicaragua, Costa Rica, El Salvador, Honduras and Panama, and neighborhoods include homes, condominiums, golf courses and over five miles of beachfront. So they got some really beautiful properties. He and I first met in person in 2016. He and his family lived in Central America from 2002 to 2016. It's always fantastic to have back on grea, and I guess I must button up here because it is the chairman and CEO, Michael Cobb. It's good to be with you. Thanks for having me.

 

Michael Cobb (00:06:21) - Back on the show. It's fun to have these conversations. I didn't realize we met in 2016. That's a little while ago.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:06:27) - Yeah, it has been eight years. Yes, we met in the region then down there and Mike's about the most relatable and down to earth guy that you can find and literally down to earth is.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:06:41) - Besides the resort development, you've made it easy and inexpensive for investors worldwide to buy producing teak tree parcels. But before we discuss that, you've got a project that's drawn a lot of interest on Ambergris Key, Belize, which many of our listeners already know, that's Belize's largest island and its top tourist destination. I have visited and owned property there, and it's coming online next year. It's pretty exciting. Tell us about it.

 

Michael Cobb (00:07:08) - It is exciting. It's been in the works for goodness, eight years. I think we signed our contract with Marriott maybe 7 or 8 years ago. We started construction just about a year ago last January. So almost exactly a year. Yeah, it's a marriott resort, 202 room oceanfront resort. It's fantastic. It will be done in August of 2025. Soft opening heart opening October 25th. So yeah, about 1618 months from now have this project finally finished. You know, the big challenging thing in this part of the world is financing. But it's really hard to get financing or affordable financing.

 

Michael Cobb (00:07:42) - Let me say it that way. Yeah. And so we took our time and we would not start a project until it was fully funded. I think a lot of challenges are people start these projects are kind of betting on the. Com. Right. Oh well we'll figure it out later. And we don't operate that way. We've been around for yeah 28 years. And so we're very very conservative. And until we had all the money to build the hotel, the resort, we did not start. And so we kicked it off last January. It was just down there last week. Steel is arriving. The superstructure is already going up. Yeah, man. It's just so nice to see it really coming to fruition. But you know, it's prudence and patience to take our time, make sure we have all the funding and then launch so that what we start finishes. And that's really been our mantra for almost three decades now.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:08:27) - Make it up, make it real, make it happen. In the largest town there on Ambergris Key, Belize, just a few decades ago, it was still this sleepy fishing village.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:08:37) - And with the setting that that island has and all the great snorkeling and everything else, it's really become popular and is boutique hotels grew into larger hotels. Yeah, it was probably, what, ten years ago perhaps, that you saw some of these big brands start to take more of an interest, like Hilton and Marriott, in branding the buildings what is.

 

Michael Cobb (00:09:00) - And, you know, I give a presentation called Why Belize, Why Right Now? And you nailed it there when you talked about the timelines. Right. And how a country or a region, it's not even a country in this case. Ambergris key. It's very specific. Right. How ambergris Key Belize has moved through this timeline, this path of progress. And at some point it goes from being a niche market or a no name market to a niche market, to a boutique market. And then all of a sudden, you're right, at some point the brand start to pay attention and then you move into popular acceptance and really mainstream tourism. And so, right.

 

Michael Cobb (00:09:31) - The cruise ships started going to Belize about 15 years ago, which put Belize as a country into the mind of a more mainstream traveler. And then you're right, about eight, ten years ago, the brand started to pay attention. And we do. We have a Hilton, we have a curio by Hilton, we have an autograph by Marriott, our company, ECI. We picked up the best Western franchise, and so we operate a Best Western on the island for that middle class market. And then Marriott, obviously, for the very high end traveler who wants an oceanfront 4 or 5 star kind of property. So yeah, but the brands are paying attention. And by the way, we're just seeing the beginning of that happening. This popularity curve Belize has entered what I would call the fast growth period. And over the next five, maybe eight years, we're going to see incredible growth in the tourism industry. Airlift is up. JetBlue just started flying down. So we're starting to WestJet. So we've got Canadian Air.

 

Michael Cobb (00:10:22) - We've got a discount carrier southwest. So when those things start to happen what you see is a market dynamism that's you know really it's exciting and it's going to change. Very, very rapidly. The pace of change is going to grow rapidly as well. So great time to look at Belize. If folks are interested in sort of that positioning in the path of progress in the marketplace.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:10:43) - Each time I visit Ambergris Key, Belize, the level of development increase is palpable. And, you know, this is an opportunity for a US or Canadian buyer or a buyer from outside that nation to come in. And it's just a very easy step with the English language and the common law in Belize, where you can invest yourself in this Marriott project that Mike discussed. Now, Mike, a while ago, to change topics, you recognize that the world has been really deforested and losing its valuable teak hardwood forests so continuously since 1999, you've offered a program so that individual investors at a really affordable price. We'll get to that price later.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:11:30) - They can own quarter acre parcels with the property deeded in their name, and reap the benefits and returns from the growth of the teakwood on top of the land. And now this is pretty novel, because for hundreds of years, only the hedge funds and super wealthy had access to an investment like this. So get us up to date with what you're doing on the teak hardwoods, because I know that so many of our listeners and viewers have already gotten involved.

 

Michael Cobb (00:11:56) - They haven't really. Thank you for being one of the people who put the word out there. Right? Because most people don't even know you can own teak or let's just back it up and you say, own timber, right? You start there. You're right. Only the super rich land barons, hedge funds. Those are the people that have always owned timber for centuries. Right. And so I think in most people's minds it's like, oh, I can't even get there. How would I even do that? Right. Well, then you take it overseas and you take it into something very, very specific, like teak timber.

 

Michael Cobb (00:12:25) - That's just not on anyone's radar. So. So you have done a great job. Thank you for getting the word out to just let folks know that this is something that they can do. So quarter acre teak parcels. We are now on our third plantation in Panama. We have one in Nicaragua as well. And so we're in our third plantation in Panama. Just because of the incredible number of folks, well over a thousand folks now who have decided they want to invest in own teak. You said something really interesting, Keith. You said you get to own the land, you get title to land and you get the harvest of the trees. That's absolutely correct. But it gets better because when the trees are harvested, they get replanted. And then the next generation of people your children, your grandchildren, whoever that might be, get the next harvest. But because you still own the land and the trees are replanted, a third harvest, you know, and a fourth harvest. So what you've really created with teak ownership is generational wealth stewardship.

 

Michael Cobb (00:13:24) - And that is something that's just so far beyond the comprehension of so many people that it can be so easy and so affordable to do.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:13:32) - I'm an investor myself in producing land like this in Latin America, so I know what some of my reasons are for being interested in this. And yes, it's more than the fact that I'm just a geography guy. It's the fact that I know I'm diversifying in multiple ways at the same time, a different product type in residential real estate. And I'm getting international diversification in a different nation, for starters. So are those some of the reasons that you see for why so many people are interested in teak investing like this? What are their reasons?

 

Michael Cobb (00:14:05) - Yeah, I think you've nailed a big part of it, which is the hard asset. A lot of folks, your listeners, readers in the news that are right, I mean, hard assets are important. I hope more people recognize that. Right. And more and more people are, thank goodness. So hard. Asset real estate being this particular hard asset.

 

Michael Cobb (00:14:22) - Right. And then the international diversification, one of the challenges we have is us, especially in Canadians to some degree, is that we kind of locked into the US system like we can own, say, Toyota stock, right? Japanese company, we can own Nestlé, a Swiss company, but generally we're doing it on the New York Stock Exchange. And so even if we own an international stock, it's still the US basket are still the Canadian basket that we hold it in. Right. And so when you physically own a titled property outside your home country, you have now truly diversified internationally. And there's a lot of prudence in that. And even just tiny little percentages of your portfolio, 5% of your portfolio, 10% of your portfolio outside your home country and hard assets is prudent because you want some other baskets for those nest eggs. Antiqued because it's such a low price point of entry with a huge yield, by the way, that it has become very, very popular for folks who want that international diversification in a hard asset.

 

Michael Cobb (00:15:23) - But to have the true international diversification because it's a physical asset outside your home country. And then I. Just say this and we can pick up on the theme or not. The other reason that people are looking at teak in Panama and Nicaragua, by the way, both countries, is because of the availability or the qualification for a visa for a second residency. And a lot of times people look at that as a plan B, if we kind of think maybe the US is going off the rails or Canada or wherever your home country is at, or it could go off the rails. Doesn't have to be now. It could be going off the rails in the future. You sort of that Boy Scout mentality of, you know what, I want a plan B, and if we have a second residency outside our home country, we now have an option. If we don't like the way things are going or where they get to, we can actually pick up and we can move and we have the right legal right, because we have a residency to live in another country.

 

Michael Cobb (00:16:17) - That's another reason that a lot of people have picked up the teak because it qualifies you for that residency. But I think the bigger reason is the international hard asset diversification. I think that's the leading reason people do it.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:16:31) - I want to ask you more about the residency shortly, but tell us more about the investment. We're thinking about maybe capital growth as the trees grow. And then what about the income?

 

Michael Cobb (00:16:42) - Sure. And so I think let me back it up. A lot of people think in cash flow cycles, right? If we have a job, we get paid every two weeks. You know, you have a lot of folks that have invested in properties. We get a monthly rent check, right? Or if we have stocks, maybe we get a quarterly or annual dividend. Right. So those are the what I would call the common time frames that we think about in cash flow. But what the Uber wealthy, what the hedge funds, what the family offices, what the endowment for places like Harvard, Yale, these big institution or big institutional thinkers have known for centuries is that there are actually other cash flow cycles that are largely ignored by the what I would say, the average investor.

 

Michael Cobb (00:17:21) - And those cash flow cycles are much longer. Teak, for example, is a 25 year cash flow cycle, right? You plant the trees and in 25 years you harvest them. You plant them again, not them. You plant new ones, right? In 25 years you harvest those and then so on and so on. So what you're creating is this 25 year cash flow machine. Now the kinds of returns are truly outsized. I mean you're talking about double digit ers. Now a lot of people say, well Mike, that's great. But what happens if I need the money in year 15? You can't have it because there is no money in year 15. Your trees are still growing, right? So it's this weird investment timeline. It's almost flatlined until the very end. And then it jumps way up and then it drops back down to a flatline again. And so it'd be silly to put tons of money into teak unless you had thousand times tons of money, right? But for some small piece of your investment portfolio where you have enough cash flow coming in from your maybe your job, your rent, your dividends, whatever, that a small piece that moves into this 25 year cash flow cycle with the thought process that this is how I steward wealth into the future, to children, grandchildren, great grandchildren, because the 25 year cycle is almost generational, right? In fact, in the US, it probably is generational because we're having children in the ages of, you know, 25 to 30.

 

Michael Cobb (00:18:44) - So it kind of starts to line up with generational income as opposed to, you know, sort of that whatever biweekly, monthly, yearly income. So it's just a different cash flow cycle.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:18:56) - That's right. And I brought up before that, when you think about the growth of one of your investments, you now get to think about it in two ways. If you own a duplex, it might have growth in its price. However, it doesn't grow into a fourplex and have growth in its price. However, with teak, you might have an increase in the value of the wood, perhaps on a board foot unit basis, and at the same time it is growing in height and volume.

 

Michael Cobb (00:19:26) - Absolutely no. That's a cute way to say it. I never really thought about a duplex growing into a fourplex, right? That's good. Exactly. And so what you do, you're right. You have the physical growth of the trees. And we have located our plantations in the optimal growing conditions, fatigue. And they are very known.

 

Michael Cobb (00:19:42) - Right? I mean, the British started plantation growing teak 350 almost 400 years ago in Southeast Asia. And so the Brits have just meticulously kept statistical records of every plantation that they were involved with the altitude, soil type, rainfall, temperature, on and on and on. And so it's really well known exactly where teak will grow well, and both where we have our plantations, it does Nicaragua and Panama, and we'll stick on Panama today, but the locations are dead center bull's eye locations for the best optimal growing of teak. So you have this growth of a physical thing, right. But you mentioned the board foot price. And by the way, the track record on teak being grown in plantations is 350 years. So what a track record, right? But since 1970. Two. The average price of teak over 5152 years has been 5.5% a year. That's the growth in the price of teak, right? And so you know who knows the future, right? I mean, the future is the future, right.

 

Michael Cobb (00:20:44) - But if a 50 year track record on a 5.5% increase in the value of the teak itself is pretty powerful, right? That's the long track record of nice growth. And when we factor in our teak into our business plan, we take that 5.5 and we make it zero. We just say, what if there is no increase in the price of teak over 25 years? How much will the tree grow? And if that tree is cut down and is sold as lumber? When we'll talk about our Solomon in a minute. If that tree is sold as lumber, what's the value of that lumber today? And what will the tree be worth in that value 25 years from now? And so if things do continue to increase at 5.5% a year, that's just all gravy. And that just starts to take that rate of return and just ratcheted up even further.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:21:33) - Teak has a number of physical properties that make it valuable, from its beauty to its fire resistance and more. Mike has now touched on a few interesting things.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:21:44) - We'll come back and talk about that soon, including how you can achieve residency in Panama by owning teak, what the risks are, and more about their sawmill that he just mentioned, adding value to the operation there. And then we're going to talk about what the prices are. We're talking with ECI Development Chairman and CEO Michael Cobb more when we come back. I'm your host, Keith Wynn. You know, I'll just tell you, for the most passive part of my real estate investing, personally, I put my own dollars with Freedom Family Investments because their funds pay me a stream of regular cash flow in returns, or better than a bank savings account, up to 12%. Their minimums are as low as 25 K. You don't even need to be accredited for some of them. It's all backed by real estate and that kind of love. How the tax benefit of doing this can offset capital gains and your W-2 jobs income. And they've always given me exactly their stated return paid on time. So it's steady income, no surprises while I'm sleeping or just doing the things I love.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:22:52) - For a little insider tip, I've invested in their power fund to get going on that text family to 66866. Oh, and this isn't a solicitation. If you want to invest where I do, just go ahead and text family to six, 686, six. Role under this specific expert with income property, you need Ridge Lending Group and MLS for 256 injury history from beginners to veterans. They provided our listeners with more mortgages than anyone. It's where I get my own loans for single family rentals up to four Plex's. Start your pre-qualification and chat with President Charlie Ridge personally. They'll even customize a plan tailored to you for growing your portfolio. Start at Ridge Lending group.com Ridge lending group.com.

 

Speaker 5 (00:23:49) - This is the Real World Network's Cathy Fekete, and you are listening to the always valuable get Rich education with Keith Reinhold.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:24:06) - You're listening to the SOS created more financial freedom for busy people just like you than nearly any show in the world. This is guitarist education. I'm your host, Keith Whitehill. We're talking with ECI development chairman and CEO Mike Cobb about teak hardwood investing in Panama and Nicaragua.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:24:22) - Like, tell us more about how one can achieve residency, for example, in Panama if they own teak there maybe just how residency varies from citizenship?

 

Michael Cobb (00:24:33) - Sure. Well, why don't we start with the second part, how residency differs from citizenship. And there's a good place to start. You know, citizenship is you become a citizen of the country. You have a passport, you can vote. You have every legal right of that country. Right. The decision would have residency to use a US term is like a green card, right? It's the legal permission to live in that country for some period of time. Many of them are permanent. In fact, Panama's is permanent. So once you have a Panama permanent residency, you could literally pick up, you could move there tomorrow, and you could live for the rest of your life in Panama. And so it gives you the legal right to live there. But you don't have a passport. You can't vote. I guess that's the main difference, right? You don't have a passport, you can't vote.

 

Michael Cobb (00:25:18) - But for most people, in fact, the overwhelming majority of people, a residency delivers exactly what somebody wants, which is the ability to live somewhere. Right? And we don't care if we vote or not. I mean, right, we'd still be citizens of our home country, US, Canada, or wherever we can vote back home or citizen. We have our passport from those countries, but the right to live somewhere else is powerful. And so the teak in Panama qualifies you in two ways for two quarter acre parcels, and then the legal fees and stuff like that. It's just under 22,000. A little less gives you permanent residency in Panama. Right? That's such an affordable way to be able to I call it the back pocket. Right. The insurance policy or the plan B in the sense that, like, I think a lot of folks are worried about the direction things are headed. And, you know, you have the teak parcels, which are going to produce a tremendous return. And then this byproduct that you qualify for and you have to go, you have to get down there a couple times.

 

Michael Cobb (00:26:16) - I mean, there's a little bit of administrative stuff, some legal fees, that's all included in that 22,000. Right. So that's all included. You have to go there a couple times. So there's a little bit of friction I would say. But when you get finished with that friction, you are a permanent resident of Panama and you only have to go there one day every two years. So you fly down every other year, whatever. Go, go talk to your trees, maybe sing to your trees a little bit, whatever you want to do and fly. All right. And you have a permanent residency. So it's a very easy, fast way to get that plan B now in the future, if you ever said, well, I really love Panama, I'd like to live here. Panama is beautiful. The city itself, it's got skyscrapers, apartments on the 50th floor of use or killer. You can be out on the beach or somewhere. You can be up in the mountains. So there are a lot of different climates and geographies in Panama where you might say to yourself, yeah, I think I want to come down here and live someday.

 

Michael Cobb (00:27:09) - Well, you already have your residency. You already have the legal right to do that.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:27:14) - Yeah, I mean, 100%. Now, Panama isn't predominantly English speaking like Belize is, but Panama just has a lot of inherent familiarity and feel to a lot of Americans. Since the canal is there and there is that strong American presence, and they've even dollarization their economy there, for example, in Panama. So it might be that nice plan B for you. And tell us more about the residency and the investment into the sawmill and how that works. So it sounds like there's now a value added component is you essentially vertically integrated and now have this sawmill with the teeth. Tell us more about that.

 

Michael Cobb (00:27:56) - So we've always factored in the sawmill into the investment proposition. Because if we were to just take the logs for example, 25 years, you cut down the trees, you stick the logs in the container and send them off to China or India, which is where most of the logs go. The return on investments.

 

Michael Cobb (00:28:13) - It's not great, it's okay, but it's not great. The way you actually get a phenomenal return on investment is you take those logs and you turn them into lumber, which has about a 3 to 4 x differential, or what we call first stage end product or simple end product, which would be something like flooring, which is basically lumber that's been finished one more level rooted and bulldozed so that you can put them together right on a wood floor. So those two modifications from the log all the way to the first degree of finished product, the returns start to really jack it up into that double digit IRR right over 25 years, which again is phenomenal. So we talked about price. But just to give an idea, a $7,000 quarter acre parcel at harvest turned into lumber and first level finished. Product turns into about $94,000, right? So 7000 turns into $90,000, which is a tremendous return. But the way you get that return is to deliver to the marketplace lumber and first grade finished product. And so Soma has always been part of our business plan.

 

Michael Cobb (00:29:19) - Well, we are now two years away from our harvest on our first plantation, the one I planted back in 1999. Right? I mean, it's incredible thinking that, you know, 20, gosh, 24 years ago planted a teak plantation. So we're two years from harvest. We have one more set of kind of odds and end thinning of just trees that didn't quite grow. Right. We're going to use those thinning over the next couple of years to practice in our sawmill. Because you know what? We are going to make mistakes. I mean, you don't ever get it right the first time. So we're going to make mistakes. We're going to learn from them. And by the time we actually do the real harvest of that first plantation, 100 acres of teak, two years from now, we will be up to speed with our sawmill will size up, we'll capacity up to do that. But yeah, so folks can actually we have a $2 million opening in the sawmill. And it's a real simple formula.

 

Michael Cobb (00:30:07) - It's two times your money and then a proportionate 10% interest in the sawmill. So for example, just rough numbers off the top of my head. You put in $100,000, you get twice your money back in about a 3 to 4 year period. As a sawmill really becomes operational. We take the first harvest, like the thinning, aren't going to produce much. In fact, we hope to just basically kind of break even over the next two years while we practice. Then we cut down 100 acres of teak. We start putting that through the sawmill, right? So you get two extra money, you invest 100 to get back to 100, and then your return would be about 13 or $14,000 a year. On going after that, because you get a 10% carried interest in the sawmill into the future as well. So that's the investment opportunity that produces a shorter cash flow, much tighter on the cash flow. But then a nice trailer for many years. But the investment is 100,000. So it's a more significant investment than, say, somebody wanting a little bite sized piece of a quarter acre parcel or two quarter acre type parcels paired with the residency that gets you that.

 

Michael Cobb (00:31:13) - So a couple different levels of investment depending on what your goals are, but also what your timelines are.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:31:19) - We described the sawmill investment numbers there. And then just to clarify, on the quarter acre parcels, they cost $7,000 each with an expected value or return of $94,000 after 25 years.

 

Michael Cobb (00:31:37) - That's correct. 6880. I'm using round numbers, but 6880 is the quarter acre teak and right at harvest when it processes through the sawmill. A little over that, but $94,000 is returned to the investor along the way. I'll mention this. There are maintenance fees. It's about $150 a year. We just take a credit card. We just tap it once a year. That takes care of property taxes, thinning, cleaning, anything that they have to do with the plantation. So $150 a year, your maintenance fee. But yeah, 6880 turns into 94,025 years. If teak continues to go up at 5.5% a year, the return would be better than that.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:32:16) - You probably have investors that come in oftentimes from North America, maybe some from Europe, and they see this as a really low cost of entry, $6,880 for one quarter acre parcel.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:32:29) - So are there any risks that one should consider? Therefore, if they're a first time investor abroad, maybe something they're not thinking about if they buy a rental single family home in their own hometown?

 

Michael Cobb (00:32:41) - Yeah. Very different. I mean, in some ways it's very different. In other ways it's pretty similar. Right. You're going to get title to the property. The process of getting title will be a little different. You're going to have to send in copies of your passport, a notarized utility bill. Just some things that you wouldn't have to do if you were buying a property in the States. But at the end of the day, you will get what's called Escritorio Publica public title. So it's a registered land deed. And so that part of it's all pretty similar risk factors. Absolutely. The business plan has them in there. But the big ones are any kind of disease. It's monoculture. So I mean a disease could come through and kill all the trees. Right. The good thing there is, again, teak has a 350 year track record of being managed and grown in plantations.

 

Michael Cobb (00:33:24) - So it has a long track record where they've kind of figured out, well, if this happens, then do this or if this pest comes along. This is how we, you know, we mitigate that, but nothing can mitigate all risk. That fire is an interesting one. Fire is a risk in the first three years of teak. So we call it baby teak. But once the tea trees are 3 to 4 years old, they're really above any kind of fire. Because you clean the plantation and the guys are in there with the machetes chopping to keep the, you know, the brushed and grass down in the dry season, which, by the way, you mention the qualities of teak, the hardness of teak is actually the most. Prized quality. And so the hardest of the teak that we get will actually be taken and sold as marine lumber, which is an unbelievable differential in price. But only 5 to 10% of your teak would qualify as marine lumber. So it's a small percentage, but the value of that is very, very high because it's set to hardwood.

 

Michael Cobb (00:34:20) - But the rest of the tree is also likewise very hard. The dry season is what cures the teak. And so in the dry season teak drops its leaves. And so it's very resistant to fire. If you do good maintenance on the plantation, we do so fires only a risk really in the first three years. And we actually warranty the trees of a fire comes through. In the first three years. We replant the plantation for any parts that are burned. So there's sort of a warranty that comes with the first three years. I mean, the other risks are political risk. What if Panama goes off the rails? The good thing about Panama, it's got the canal. And that is a major, vital strategic US interest. I just don't see the US letting Panama kind of go off the rails. But it could. But those I think are the three what I would call main risk factors. And we mitigate those to the best way possible.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:35:13) - You heard Mike mention about the thinning and cleaning. Yes, there is ongoing management, but that is already handled and taken care of in any of the prices that you already mentioned.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:35:24) - Is that right, Mike?

 

Michael Cobb (00:35:25) - Yeah, correct. And we outsource to a company called Geo Forest. All Geo Forest, all. They've been our plantation manager from since 1999. And and they're phenomenal. What they do, their world class. They've been doing it for longer than 25 years, maybe 30 years at this point. But we outsource what we have to outsource because we're not management plantation managers. So we can find folks that are.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:35:47) - The same property manager for a quarter century, a property manager that actually doesn't get fired. Hey, that's a novel concept. Two times two is what some investors back here in the U.S. are thinking with their residential real estate investments. If you want to learn more about this investment, I encourage you to check it out. You can do that through Gray Marketplace at Gray marketplace.com/teak. Mike, do you still offer tours.

 

Michael Cobb (00:36:16) - Oh my goodness yes. And I hope that you will take us up on the opportunity to come down and see the dairy and province. But yes, we do.

 

Michael Cobb (00:36:24) - And I don't know the dates off the top of my head, but for folks who are interested, uh, two things. One, we actually run a tour that's fun because it's a group of people and it's just, you know, you come down and you do it. But if somebody says, hey, I can't make those dates, but I want to come see the trees. Yeah, it's very reasonable. I think it's a couple hundred bucks. They pick you up at your hotel, they'll run you out to the plantation, bring you back. But it's a whole day. I mean, it's four hours outside of Panama City and four hours back, so it's a long day. And if it's a couple, it's still 200. It's basically for the vehicle out and back. Right? The driver and the vehicle. So you can come anytime or you can come with a group. And if you come with a group there is no charge. I mean, we get the van or the bus and we pay for it all.

 

Michael Cobb (00:37:03) - And yeah, we make peanut butter and jelly sandwiches and we have fun.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:37:07) - All right. Well, I think people have probably covered for the tea more than the sandwiches, but that is a nice touch that you do for people because you do that whether someone is a great investor or not, whether they haven't invested at all yet, and they just want to go ahead and check it out. And you can learn more about those dates at GR marketplace.com/teague Mike, it's always such a fun chat to discuss something so exotic. It's been great having you back on the show.

 

Michael Cobb (00:37:34) - Nice to be back with you. I look forward to seeing you in Panama one of these days.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:37:43) - Trees grow through recessions, they grow through market cycles, they grow through Covid, and trees just keep growing through every single fed rate decision. The wealthiest families on the planet, the top 1%. They have locked up vast portions of their wealth for timeframes even longer than the 25 year peak harvest cycle. In fact, Harvard has fully 10% of its endowment, specifically in timber.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:38:11) - To follow up on what I asked earlier, as we're discussing non-residential real estate today, Earth's highest point above sea level is Mount Everest. The highest from base to peak is Monica. But Earth's highest piece of land, uh, the highest point is measured from the center of the Earth is Chimborazo Volcano, Ecuador. That's because Earth is not a perfect sphere. But there's an equatorial bulge. That's what I was climbing ten days ago. Earth's highest real estate, Chimborazo, was also there for the closest real estate to the sun and moon. But back down here at a lower elevation where the teak plantations are in Panama and Nicaragua, there are no loans for teak. But at prices under seven K, many GRI listeners have found that they don't need a loan and they have bought ten or more parcels. But you can buy as few as 1 or 2 a quarter acre teak parcels and then later cash it out for yourself or build that wealth legacy for your family. Kind of like the top 1%. If it sounds interesting to you, learn more.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:39:22) - Get started at GR marketplace.com/t. Until next week. I'm your host, Keith Wild. Don't quit your day dream.

 

Speaker 6 (00:39:34) - Nothing on this show should be considered specific, personal or professional advice. Please consult an appropriate tax, legal, real estate, financial or business professional for individualized advice. Opinions of guests are their own. Information is not guaranteed. All investment strategies have the potential for profit or loss. The host is operating on behalf of get Rich education LLC exclusively. The.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:40:02) - The preceding program was brought to you by your home for wealth building. Get rich education.com.

Direct download: GREepisode490_.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 4:00am EDT

You’ll get an exact mortgage rate prediction from the President of the lending company that’s provided investors with more financial freedom than anyone in the nation. 

Learn how to best access your equity, yet keep your low mortgage rate first loan untouched.

In this Get Rich Education podcast episode, host Keith Weinhold and guest Caeli Ridge, President of Ridge Lending Group, delve into the direction of mortgage rates. 

They highlight the importance of understanding today’s environment and discuss refinancing opportunities in the current market. 

Caeli outlines various loan products available to investors and predicts over 50% of appraisals now come in high, indicating strong future valuations. 

She also forecasts higher mortgage rates to persist, with a possible Fed Funds Rate reduction by June and a 6.125% rate for 30-year fixed mortgages, non-OO, with 25% down, by the end of 2024. 

The episode emphasizes education and strategic planning in real estate investment.

I get my own loans at Ridge. You can too at RidgeLendingGroup.com

Timestamps:

The impact of inflation on real estate investing (00:00:00)

Discusses leveraging properties to increase wealth, the relationship between mortgage rates and real estate, and the impact of inflation on property values.

Understanding the importance of mortgage rates (00:03:52)

Explores the neutral relationship real estate investors have with mortgage rates, the impact of mortgage rates on home affordability, and the significance of current mortgage rates.

Historical perspective on home price affordability (00:06:18)

Provides insights into the historical trends in home affordability, comparing past and current median home prices and the impact of inflation on home values.

The power of leverage in borrowing (00:10:14)

Illustrates the impact of inflation on loan principal balances and monthly mortgage payments, emphasizing the benefits of optimizing borrowing.

Mortgage rate prediction and refinancing trends (00:16:57)

Discusses the future direction of mortgage rates, refinancing trends, and the importance of considering interest rates in the context of overall investment strategies.

Explanation of high points charged on investment property loans (00:23:12)

Provides an explanation for the high points charged on investment property loans, related to the servicing of mortgage-backed securities and the absence of prepayment penalties.

Accessing Equity with HELOC and HE Loan (00:24:21)

Discussion on accessing equity using keylock and HE loan, including LTV ratios and interest rate comparisons.

Trade-offs Between HELOC and HE Loan (00:25:27)

Comparison of trade-offs between keylock and HE loan, including flexibility and interest payment structures.

Considerations for Second Mortgages (00:26:36)

Exploration of the benefits of having a second mortgage as an option and the potential drawbacks related to minimum draw requirements.

Blended Mortgage Rates (00:27:56)

Explanation of how to calculate blended mortgage rates based on the balances and interest rates of first and second mortgages.

Appetite for Adjustable Rate Mortgages (00:28:44)

Assessment of the current environment for adjustable rate mortgages and comparison with fixed-rate mortgages.

Obstacles for New and Repeat Investors (00:29:45)

Common obstacles faced by new and repeat real estate investors, including understanding investment goals and managing debt-to-income ratios.

Forecast for Mortgage Rates (00:33:45)

Prediction for future mortgage rates based on inflation indicators and the potential impact of the Fed's decisions.

Loan Types Offered by Ridge Lending Group (00:35:54)

Overview of the various loan types offered by Ridge Lending Group, including Fannie and Freddie loans, non-QM loans, and commercial loans.

Resources and Tools for Investors (00:38:03)

Information about free resources and tools available on the Ridge Lending Group website, including simulators and educational content.

Conclusion and Recommendation (00:39:38)

Summary of the discussion with Caeli Ridge and a recommendation to explore the services offered by Ridge Lending Group for real estate financing needs.

Resources mentioned:

Show Page:

GetRichEducation.com/489

Ridge Lending Group:

RidgeLendingGroup.com

Call 855-74-RIDGE

For access to properties or free help with a

GRE Investment Coach, start here:

GREmarketplace.com

Get mortgage loans for investment property:

RidgeLendingGroup.com or call 855-74-RIDGE 

or e-mail: info@RidgeLendingGroup.com

Invest with Freedom Family Investments. 

You get paid first: Text FAMILY to 66866

Will you please leave a review for the show? I’d be grateful. Search “how to leave an Apple Podcasts review” 

Top Properties & Providers:

GREmarketplace.com

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GREmarketplace.com/Coach

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GetRichEducation.com

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Our YouTube Channel:

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Keith’s personal Instagram:

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Complete episode transcript:

 

Keith Weinhold (00:00:00) - Welcome to GRE. I'm your host, Keith Weinhold. A new take on how to profit from inflation. The best strategies for accessing equity from your property while leaving your low rate loan in place. A surprising trend with real estate appraisals. Then the president of one of the most prominent national mortgage companies joins me to give a firm mortgage rate prediction today on get rich education. If you like the Get Rich Education podcast, you're going to love our Don't Quit Your Daydream newsletter. No, a eye here I write every word of the letter myself. It wires your mind for wealth. It helps you make money in your sleep and updates you on vital real estate investing trends. It's free sign up egg get rich education.com/letter. It's real content that makes a real difference in your life. Spice with a dash of humor rather than living below your means, learn how to grow your means right now. You can also easily get the letter by texting GRE to 66866. Text GRE to 66866.

 

Speaker 2 (00:01:11) - You're listening to the show that has created more financial freedom than nearly any show in the world.

 

Speaker 2 (00:01:18) - This is Get Rich Education.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:01:27) - Welcome to Gary from Oak Park Heights, Minneapolis, to Crown Heights, Brooklyn in New York City and across 188 nations worldwide. I'm Keith Weinhold, and this is Get Rich education. When you have that epiphany, that leverage creates wealth, it can be enough to make you want to be the town iconoclast. Walk around, beat your chest, and boldly proclaim that financially free beats debt free. You might remember that I helped drive that point home a few weeks ago when I talked about the old fourplex owner, Patrick, who owned his fourplex next to mine years ago. He wanted to pay his down and I wanted to leverage mine up. I told you then that rushing to pay off one property by making extra payments on the principal is like drilling a deep hole into one property. And the deeper you drill, the more likely that hole is to cave in. Your return goes down and now you've got more of your prosperity tied up in just one property, just one neighborhood and just one market.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:02:34) - The most sure fire way to wealth, and exactly what wealthy people do, is optimize and almost maximize the number of properties that you own. And as long as you buy right as they inevitably inflate, just keep borrowing against them. And that way you never have to pay capital gains tax either. And that goes beyond just real estate. That's assets of many types. You'll want to own more assets. The way to do that is with more loans. And paradoxically, that is why the richest people have the most debt. As you watch your debt column grow, watch your column grow even faster. And as we're talking about mortgages and the direction of interest rates today, us as real estate investors, you and I, we have a somewhat neutral relationship with mortgage rates. Yeah, it's often a neutral relationship. Now, prospective homebuyers, they often want mortgage rates to be low. Sellers often want rates to be low two so that they'll have more home bidders, legacy landlords, ones that own a bunch of property and they're not buying anymore.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:03:52) - They often want mortgage rates to be high because it hurts first time homebuyer affordability, and then it keeps the rents high and it keeps the occupancy high. And then you and I see we both own real estate. We also look to opportunistically put more in our portfolio. Well then we want rates to be high in a sense and low in a sense too. So you might have relative neutrality, feeling aloof about it all because you're thinking about it from both sides. But in any case, we can always predict the future. But the one thing that you know for sure is what you have now. A lot of people don't optimize their potential for what they have now. Instead, they speculate about the future. Now, one thing a lot of people have now is so many Americans are still loving their 3% and 4% mortgage rates they locked in 2 or 3 years ago, and they're refusing to give it up. However, over the past two years, when the number of real estate listings were at historic lows, a lot of life changing events have occurred in the past two years 7 million newborn babies with a need for a larger sized home and a desire to get out of the starter home.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:05:11) - Also in the last two years, 3 million marriages, including some of those marriages, are among older couples who now need to sell a home that can help solve the market. And then, of course, most home sellers. They also become home buyers. Next, they need another place to live. So home sellers, they often don't add a net one to the supply. We had a million and a half divorces, 7 million Americans turning 65 years old that might want to trade down during the retirement years and also during the last two years. Consider that there were 4 million deaths and 50 million job changes, some of those inconsequential, while others with fundamentally changed commuting patterns. So the point here is that life moves on. For some, though still a minority, but a growing minority, it is time to give up the three and 4% mortgage rate. Still not enough of them, but for better or worse, that is what it's going to take to move this market and put some available supply out there.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:06:18) - Now, today we have apparently finally just come off this period where home price of. Affordability had hit 40 year lows for 40 years for decades. Again, with low affordability, you dislike that if you're a home buyer or seller, you might feel neutral about low affordability as a landlord or a real estate investor because it makes your new purchases less affordable. But it keeps your renters as renters when you buy that income property. From an affordability standpoint, the very best time to buy was 2013. Yep, 2013 is when prices hadn't fully recovered from the GFC and mortgage rates had fallen dramatically. Now, to open up that range in years, from an affordability standpoint, it was just a sensational time to buy a home or property from 2009 to 2021, just historically extraordinary, that sensational affordability level during that decade or so, 2009 to 2021, that added to the exceptional rise in home values over end since that time. But yeah, a few months ago, affordability reached its worst level in 40 years and it has since improved.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:07:43) - I mean, 40 year lows in affordability reach then in 1984 and what happened in 1984, that is when Ronald Reagan defeated Walter Mondale for his second presidential term. Steve Jobs launched the Macintosh personal computer. John Schnatter opened the first Papa John's store in Indiana. LeBron James was born in 1984, and on television running were The Cosby Show and The Dukes of Hazzard. Hey, if you were alive then and you watch those shows, um, I know you wouldn't confess to watching Charles in Charge back then, and you'll never get back those socially redeeming hours that you spent watching Punky Brewster, and you would not admit to doing that either. What is this show, the Jeffersons still on TV in 1984? Look into that. Yeah. You know, that was kind of a real estate ish show. The deluxe apartment in the sky. Yes. It was on then. Yeah. Sherman Hemsley, Isabel Sanford Q that up.

 

Speaker UU (00:08:55) - Where we're moving on now? All up to this island, to a deluxe apartment in the sky.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:09:06) - Yeah, they even had the episode where the landlord came over and threatened not to renew their lease. I'll tell you. Has there ever been a television show in history where the landlord was depicted as a good guy? I mean, a landlord in television, they're always cast is a money hungry bad guy that won't fix anything, or is just trying to unscrupulously kick out the tenant, a slack jawed slumlord, every single time. I never really understood that show's theme music, either Beans or Burden on the grill or something. Let's get back to mortgage loans. Understand this. It might be in a way that, okay, you've never thought about it before. It's the power of leverage in borrowing. Now, you probably won't hold any 30 year fixed rate loan all 30 years in reality, but they'll make this effect clear. Let's just act like you have done this on a property. Now the median home price is near 400 K today. But what was it not 40 years ago, but in this case 30 years ago? All right.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:10:14) - So 1994, per the Fred numbers, which are sourced from the census and HUD, it was 130 K. Yes, a 130 K median priced home in 1994. So then if you put a 20% down payment on that property, you'd have a loan principal balance of 104 K. Now imagine it was an interest only loan somehow, and you still just owed a 104 K balance on that home today, whose median price is up to 400 K. Well, that 104 K. That just seems like a little math that you could almost swat away. I mean, this is how inflation makes the numbers of yesteryear feel tiny. But now if you're 104 K loan were an amortizing loan and the principal were being paid down to hopefully all principal pay down made by the tenant. During all those years, mortgage rates were 9% back then. So if you were making the final payment today on what's now still a median priced home, today your mortgage payment would just be 837 bucks a month. It feels like nothing. Inflation benefited you both ways on the total principal balance and the monthly payment.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:11:35) - Just feeling lighter and lighter and lighter in inflation adjusted terms now. And if your mortgage rate were 6% on that property, your payment would only be 623 bucks. You might have refinanced to something like that. I mean, 623 bucks. That is lower than the average new car payment today of 726. But if you had not gotten that loan back in 1994 and instead would have paid all cash for the 130 K property, were you 130 K all cash that was put into the property back then? Well, that would have had the purchasing power of today's approximately 400 K reflected in the price of today's median priced home. But to take it back ten years further to 1984, the George Jefferson year, the median home price was 80 K and your loan would be 60 4k. I mean, these numbers feel like little toys or almost lunch money or something. So this is the power of optimizing your borrowing and perhaps but not quite maximizing your borrowing power because that does risk over leverage. That is the inflation profiting benefit that you're feeling right there.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:12:59) - Coming up in just a few minutes, the president of one of the most prominent national mortgage companies for investor loans will be here with me. We're going to talk about mortgage rates some more, the overall temperature of the mortgage market. And I expect that she'll give a firm mortgage rate prediction for where we're going to be at year end, because she's done that with us before. They see so many investor loans in there at their lending companies. They've really got a great pulse on the market. We have set up the makeshift gray studio again for yet another week. Here is this week I'm in Nevada, where I will be the best man at my brother's wedding. I have been on the road a lot lately. That's what a geography guy like me does. Gotta get out and see the world. Life is meant to be lived, not postpone. Before we discuss both general and some intermediate Murray's concepts shortly. If you happen to be new to real estate investing. And you just like to listen to that one episode that tells you, step by step, how to get started and how to build your credit score and make an offer on a property, and best navigate the inspection process and the property appraisal inside the management agreement and more.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:14:15) - You can find that on get Rich Education podcast episode 368. It's simply called How to Buy Your First Rental Property. More next. I'm Keith Reinhold, you're listening to get Rich education. You know, I'll just tell you, for the most passive part of my real estate investing, personally, I put my own dollars with Freedom Family Investments because their funds pay me a stream of regular cash flow in returns are better than a bank savings account up to 12%. Their minimums are as low as 25 K. You don't even need to be accredited for some of them. It's all backed by real estate and that kind of love. How the tax benefit of doing this can offset capital gains and your W-2 jobs income. And they've always given me exactly their stated return paid on time. So it's steady income, no surprises while I'm sleeping or just doing the things I love. For a little insider tip, I've invested in their power fund to get going on that text family to 66866. Oh, and this isn't a solicitation.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:15:24) - If you want to invest where I do, just go ahead and text family to six, 686, six. Role under the specific expert with income property, you need Ridge Lending Group and MLS for 256. In gray history, from beginners to veterans, they provided our listeners with more mortgages than anyone. It's where I get my own loans for single family rentals up to four plex's. Start your pre-qualification and chat with President Charlie Ridge. Personally, though, even customized plan tailored to you for growing your portfolio. Start at Ridge Lending group.com. Ridge lending group.com.

 

Speaker 3 (00:16:12) - Hi, this is Tom Hopkins, and I can't tell you how smart you are to be with get rich education and make these ideas you.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:16:32) - What is the future direction of mortgage rates? How do you qualify for more mortgage loans at the best terms with the lowest interest rates, and Americans have at near record equity levels in their properties? So what's the best way to access that equity yet? Keep your low rate mortgage in place. We're answering all of that today with a company president that's created more financial freedom through real estate than any other lender in the entire nation.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:16:57) - That is, the top tier and eponymous ridge lending group is time for a big welcome back to Charlie Ridge. Keith, you flatter me. Thank you very much.

 

Caeli Ridge (00:17:07) - I'm very happy to be here, sir. Good to see you.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:17:09) - Well, you help us here because debt and loan are our favored four letter words around here at gray. Can you help us efficiently optimize them both, Charlie? Interest rates have just been on so many people's minds. Shortly after, they had their all time low in January of 2021, and they since rose and then have settled down. Charlie, I've been trying to think through myself why people seem to put this over emphasis on the interest rate now. It's surely important. It is your cost of money. But the way I've thought that people overemphasize the rate is because maybe people love to discuss the direction of interest rates, even more so than real estate prices in rents is because prices and rents nearly always go up in interest rates can go up and down. So therefore it's maybe more interesting for people to talk about.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:17:57) - I also think about how rates sort of tap into that human fear of loss by paying interest, trumping the triumph of gain through cash flow or appreciation. And then maybe as well, it's because higher mortgage rates, they mean higher rates of all types which permeate into all of one's life's debt. So these are my thoughts about why people maybe put an over emphasis on mortgage interest rates. What are your thoughts?

 

Caeli Ridge (00:18:23) - I'm sure there's probably something to that. And you're right, Keith. Interest rates are always the hot topic. Everybody wants to talk about interest rates. I think that overall though, it is a lack of education and there's a psychology to it. You and I have talked about interest rates at nauseam over the years, and I do understand, but I think you and I agree, because we live in this space and we're constantly looking at the math. They are probably third or fourth on the list of priorities. When you're deciding on if this investment is valid. For fitting into my goal box, I think it's more about getting information out there and informing the masses about interest rates, and doing that math to make sure that they're not just pigeonholing themselves into keeping a 3% interest rate, or not expanding their portfolio because they're afraid of giving up what they have and not really realizing the power of the equity, the tax deduction, the rent increases.

 

Caeli Ridge (00:19:15) - All of those variables are often ignored when people start talking about interest rates, until you start to have that reasonable, rational conversation that helps them identify what the math is. Because the math won't lie, right? The math will not lie.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:19:29) - Yeah, that's right. Things more important than interest rate with an investment property might be the price you're paying for that property, or the level of rent that's there, or even maybe knowing you already have a good property manager that you trust in that market where that property is. But of course, rates matter somewhat. Now we're going to get a future looking prediction from you later. But your last mortgage rate prediction, Charlie, you may not remember the details of it. It was made here on the show in November of 2022. That's when rates were 7%. Back at that time, you said that rates should keep climbing but at a slower pace, and that happened. And you predicted the peak by spring of 2023 of 7.625%. What happened is in October of 2023, they hit 7.8% per Freddie Mac.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:20:17) - So you almost completely nailed it because most everyone believes that that was the peak for this cycle. And if so, you're within a few months in just 2/10 of 1% of identifying the peak.

 

Caeli Ridge (00:20:32) - Thank you Keith. I appreciate that acknowledgement. I get it right a lot. My crystal ball has been broken several times over, especially the last couple of years, so I'll want to acknowledge that too. I pay attention to the fed and as a good friend of mine is always saying, don't fight the fed if you are listening to what they're saying, actually listening to the words that are coming out of their mouths, it's not too terribly hard to kind of predict where we're going to be in certain milestones of any given year. So I do have a good prediction for this year. We'll share later. As you said, rates are not completely irrelevant. I just want to impress upon your listeners that they really should be looking at the investment holistically, and not just laser focused on that interest rate. There's more to it.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:21:15) - That was excellent. You have more audacity than me when it comes to predicting interest rates. It's a business I typically stay out of, so I'm going to outsource that to you later. I'll predict things like real estate prices, but I think rates are notoriously difficult. And what's happened with rates now that they have come off their peak substantially from back in October of 2023. What's happened with the refinance business, is that something that's picked up again there?

 

Caeli Ridge (00:21:39) - Yeah, we're starting to see a bit more. I would say that last year refi numbers were down right for obvious reasons. But we are seeing some more business in the refinance department. I think depending on the individual and largely the strategy of the investment, the long term versus the mid-term versus the short term, we're seeing a little bit more on the refi side for the short term rentals than we are in the long term. But overall, yes, I would agree that they're starting to pick up. I may mention to Keith it might be useful for the listeners.

 

Caeli Ridge (00:22:06) - So while I agree, we've seen that interest rates started on their descent, which was great news, everybody was excited to see that. We're still finding that the points that are being secured or paid on, especially investment property loans, are still on the high end of the spectrum. And for those that aren't aware of the why behind that, how might be important. Just to mention that when we talk about mortgage backed securities, the overall servicing of these mortgage backed securities that are bought and sold and traded on on the secondary markets, they're pretty smart in forecasting when rates are high, what happens to those mortgages? When they come back down, they start to refinance, right? They start to pay off. And the servicing rights of these loans take 2 to 3 years before they're even profitable. So the servicers and the secondary markets know that they have to charge those extra points to hedge their losses, because when the loans that they're paying for and servicing today are going to pay off in six months or 12 months, they're going to be at a loss.

 

Caeli Ridge (00:23:01) - If it takes them 24 to 36 months to be profitable. That's why investors are seeing especially investors are seeing extra points being charged on the loans that they're securing today.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:23:12) - Oh, that's a great explanation. And really, this is because there's no prepayment penalty associated with residential mortgage loans in the United States typically. So therefore, the person that's on the back end of these loans, the investor there needs to be sure that they're compensated somehow when one goes ahead and maybe refinances out of their loan at a presumably lower interest rate, maybe in as little as 12 months or so.

 

Caeli Ridge (00:23:39) - Yes, sir. Exactly right. Yeah. And prepayment penalties on conventional. There are no prepayment penalties on conventional. Just to clarify on a non QM product which of course we have to, you know, debt service coverage ratio products etc. on non-owner occupied those typically will have prepayment penalties. But the Fannie Freddie stuff, the GSE stuff no prepay ever.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:23:57) - Now the rates have come down presumably off their peak in this cycle. You know, I think a lot of people wonder about all right now, what's a prudent way for me to harvest my equity since we have near-record equity levels in property and yet keep my low rate mortgage in place? I think a lot of people don't even understand that you can do that and take a second mortgage to access some of that dead equity.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:24:20) - What are your thoughts?

 

Caeli Ridge (00:24:21) - I love a keylock in general. We do now have one of our newer product lines is a second lien lock. We have two options there. Both of them cap at 70% LTV. That's combined loan to value. So all you need to do to figure out what you're going to have access to is take the value that you think the property would appraise for times 70% from that number, subtract the first lien balance, and that will give you what your line on a key lock. Secondly, and position you lock would be. And I love it.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:24:49) - All right. So therefore if one has 50% equity in a property they could access 20% more up to that 70% CLTV. That combined loan to value ratio between your first mortgage and your second mortgage, which might take the form of a keylock a home equity line of credit.

 

Caeli Ridge (00:25:07) - Perfectly said. We also have second lien he loans worth mention. He loan is really exactly the same thing as your first lien mortgage. It's a fixed rate.

 

Caeli Ridge (00:25:15) - Second it's just in second lean position 30 year fixed. Those go to 85% CLTV. So you get quite a bit more leverage. But the rates are going to be on the 1,213% range.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:25:27) - That's interesting. Tell us about some more of the trade offs between the key lock, where we typically have a fixed rate period in a floating period afterwards, and the he loan some more of those trade offs as we devise our strategy.

 

Caeli Ridge (00:25:41) - Yeah. The key lock is variable right. The interest rate can change. As you said. The reason I prefer the He lock, if the numbers made sense, is that you're only paying interest on monies that you're using at that point in time. So if you had $100,000 key lock and you're only using 20,000 of it for whatever investment purposes or whatever, then you're paying interest just on the 20 that he loan is exactly as you would expect. You're getting all of that money at once, and you will be paying interest on all of it, whether or not you're using it.

 

Caeli Ridge (00:26:10) - There's less flexibility on a key loan. While it does provide extra leverage, I do generally prefer that he lock.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:26:18) - Now, sometimes a question that I've asked myself in the past, Charlie, when I was new as an investor, is sort of why wouldn't I take a second mortgage? He lock or he loan? Because I don't necessarily have to draw against it, but it might be good for me to have it as an option just to be sure that it's there.

 

Caeli Ridge (00:26:36) - Absolutely. Especially the key lock, because like I said, I will not pay interest on anything you're not using. And to have it when the time comes, right. If you want to be prepared, which I think is huge. We both agree there. The one thing I would mention about that though, is oftentimes on the helocs there will be a minimum draw at closing. You can put it right back after closing, but chances are there's going to be a 50,000 or 100,000 minimum draw, depending on what the line limit is.

 

Caeli Ridge (00:27:01) - Maybe 75% of the entire limit is what the minimum draw would be. But again, you can put it right back after closing. So maybe you pay 30 days of interest on that before you're able to to stick it back in the lock. Otherwise, it's one of my favorite strategies for investors and having access to those funds when the time comes.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:27:20) - That's an interesting piece there. So you as an investor is you're devising your strategy as you're looking at the equity position in your own home as well as your rental properties. Maybe you're looking at a low rate of, say, you have a 4% mortgage loan, but you've had a bloated equity position, and you go ahead and you take out a second mortgage in any of the forms of Charlie is talking about. And that second mortgage has, say, a 10% interest rate. Well, you don't simply take the 4% on your first loan and your 10% on the second and average it and say, well, now I'm paying 7%. Of course, you have to wait those averages.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:27:56) - It's pretty likely that you have a higher mortgage balance on your first loan than your second loan. So depending on their balances, therefore, if your first mortgage has a 4% interest rate and your second mortgage has a 10% interest rate, you're blended rate might be something like five and a half.

 

Caeli Ridge (00:28:10) - Exactly right. And there's all kinds of tools and calculators online. If somebody wanted to check that out you can find them very easily. Just the weighted average of mortgage rates. And you can plug in your numbers. It'll tell you exactly if you're using this amount or this amount or whatever it is, what your weighted average would be.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:28:27) - Yeah, definitely important for you as an investor checking your arbitrage and your cash flow. Certainly, Charlie, I wonder now that we are in an environment finally where rates have actually fallen, how is the appetite for arms adjustable rate mortgages looked in there?

 

Caeli Ridge (00:28:44) - We're still on what's called an inverted yield from the 0809 housing and lending kind of debacle, we found ourselves in a place where adjustable rate mortgage or arm's actually priced in interest rate higher than a 30 year fixed, creating that inverted yield.

 

Caeli Ridge (00:28:58) - We have yet to see the correction of that. So we're still kind of in that place where depending on the characteristics of the transaction, the arm might be a higher interest rate. Maybe it's about the same as the 30 year fixed. If there is a scenario where the arm is lower, it might be an eighth or a quarter of a percentage point. So it's unlikely that we would recommend an arm over a fixed. There'd be have to be some very specific circumstances. If it's only a quarter point improvement to rate for a five year arm versus a 30 year fixed.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:29:26) - Charlie, you deal with so many investors in there, both newer investors and veteran real estate investors. So when we talk first about the new investors, are there any just sort of common obstacles to overcome that you see in there for people that are looking to get their first investment property?

 

Caeli Ridge (00:29:45) - I think they're why a lot of times we'll have investors come to us and really not even understand more than they just don't want their money in the stock market anymore, and they want to find another venue or another vehicle in which to create their investment freedom, their financial freedom through.

 

Caeli Ridge (00:29:59) - So I would say for brand new investors, really start to ask that question, what is your why? What is it that you want to get out of this? Do you want total replacement income of your ordinary income today? Do you love what you do for work and you just want supplemental income? How much does that income need to be? Does it need to be what you're making today? Can it be a little bit less? Does it need to be more based on what you expect your lifestyle to be? So lots of different questions to be asking yourself. So I would say that commonly just really understanding at least a baseline. And then we can start connecting some dots together and planting seeds that I talk about a baseline of, of what it is that you're hoping to accomplish through real estate.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:30:37) - So that's what you often see with the beginning investor. How about that repeat investor. Their obstacles to overcome that are common in there on expanding one's portfolio. Maybe that's a debt to income ratio threshold that one reaches and you need to strategize with them there.

 

Caeli Ridge (00:30:54) - Yeah, the debt to income ratio problem ultimately when you get there is probably a good problem to have, right when you're having to have conversations that way. I think that the obstacles to overcome is making sure that you have a good support team, and I think that would start with your lender, someone that has a multitude of loan products that aren't just one size fits all. I would say that we check that box very well, but strategizing. One of my favorite conversations with my clients is having those strategy one on one calls about their debt to income ratio and figuring out from a scheduling perspective, how can we maximize their deductions, because that's one of the beautiful things about real estate investing, right? Is that schedule E so maximizing over there without it taking you over certain thresholds to continue to qualify, there can be a weighted scale there as well. And those are the conversations that we have with our clients usually earlier in the year. But we're always looking at our client's draft tax returns. That's important.

 

Caeli Ridge (00:31:47) - Before you ring that bell, get us copies of your draft tax returns so that we can run the math, and we'll even show them how the pluses and minuses work. It's pretty interesting to most people. And then come up with a solution that says, okay, if you want to do this for 2024, here are our recommendations X, Y, or Z. And then they can make the informed decision that fits what their goals are for the year.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:32:08) - Yeah, these are the scenarios that a mortgage loan company that specializes in income property loans can help you with your future planning. How can you set yourself up considering your personal situation, your tax deductions, how much income do you want to show, and all those sorts of things to give you more runway to add income properties to your portfolio. And you do see so many scenarios in there and so many investors. Sometimes when you're here, I like to ask you to get a temperature of the appraisal market. What percent of appraisals are you seeing coming high on and what percent are coming in low? Approximately.

 

Caeli Ridge (00:32:43) - We're probably over 50% on the high, but not by any large margin. I'll see 10,015 thousand regularly over what we had expected in the actual value. Pretty commonly, just right on the money, right on the mark. I think it's real market specific, to be sure. I don't see that the short values come in all that much. If it is, generally it's probably because the investor is brand new, didn't unfortunately talk to us in advance. They were doing the BR method and they didn't get the right comps or have the right advice about what that RV might end up being. So they got trapped in a situation where they learned the hard way.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:33:21) - Interesting. I don't know that I remember that from the past, where more than 50% of appraisals have come in high. That pretends well for future valuations, at least here in the near term. All right, Charlie, well, we talked about your record with mortgage rate predictions here and how good that track record was. Why don't you let us know where you think mortgage rates are going to be by the end of 2024.

 

Caeli Ridge (00:33:45) - I do think that the rates are going to be higher for longer. Don't fight the fed, remember? Listen to what they have to say. I would preface this by saying that all of the indicators for inflation, except for one of them, have been hot to the side. That does not help us with interest rates. The employment jobs report, you've got the CPI, all these different metrics have come in hot where they're higher than what we would want to see them for that inflationary measure, where the feds have been extremely clear that they want to hit that 2% mark, where that number came from, I don't know. That's another conversation. There's only been one metric that actually worked to the rate environment to get it lowered, which is the PCE, the personal consumption expenditure. For those that aren't familiar with that acronym, I think they're going to be higher for longer. There's been a lot of headlines out there saying that I'm getting to a rate. I promise. I'm just going to to preface this first, that March might be the first reduction in the fed funds rate, which, by the way, remember, is not the same as a long term 30 year fixed mortgage rate.

 

Caeli Ridge (00:34:42) - There are links to them, but they are different. I don't think that's going to happen. I think that if we're going to see rates come down, the first fed funds rate reduction, probably sometime in June, is where I may put my predictions. And then by the end of the year, the interest rate, I'm going to put at 6.125 for 30 year fixed mortgages and non-owner occupied purchase with 25% down. That's my prediction.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:35:09) - You are on the record though, and it's so interesting, at least with what the fed does with rates generally. It's like an entire world where good news is bad news, right? If you've got great job growth and great GDP, well, that's bad news because they're probably going to keep rates high since those things tend to keep inflation high. It's like, what if you want the lowest mortgage rate, everyone in the world would be unemployed except you. You know, it's just so funny. I'm glad you said that. Yeah.

 

Caeli Ridge (00:35:36) - The worse the economy is, the better the rates are.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:35:38) - Yeah. That's right. You offer so many products in there, mostly to investors, but you have other ones that it's not just for buy and hold type of investors. It's for those that are doing better strategies like you mentioned in other strategies. Well, you tell us about all the loan types that you offer in there.

 

Caeli Ridge (00:35:54) - Yeah, we do have quite a few. Thank you for asking. So we start with the Fannie Freddie's. We call these the golden tickets. Everybody. Highest leverage, lowest interest rate. A lot of times the newer investors will start by exhausting those. There are ten per qualified individual. If you're a married couple, you can have up to 20, as you and I have talked about in the past, Keith. Beyond that, we've got something called Non-cumulative. QM stands for Qualified Mortgage. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are the definition of what a qualified mortgage is. So everything outside of that box of underwriting is now non QM. And non QM in and of itself is extremely diverse, not just for investors, for anybody, but within that subset of product you've got debt service coverage ratio where there is no personal income documentation.

 

Caeli Ridge (00:36:33) - It's all about the properties rents divided by the payment. We have bank statement loans in there. We've got asset depletion. So if you've got $1 million in an exchange, a stock exchange account, there's a formula that we can use to utilize that as income. Beyond that, we have short term bridge loans for those that are fixed and flipping or fixed and holding where you need cash for the purchase and the renovation or rehab. So we have second lien helocs. Those are newer to our product line. So I'm pretty excited about those. We touched on that. We have commercial loans for commercial property, commercial loans for residential if it were applicable. And then of course the all in one, which is a first lien Helocs still my favorite, but we've spent lots of time talking about that. So that's probably a good overview or at least abbreviated checklist of products we have.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:37:16) - And I've got investor loans in there myself or new purchases I've done investor loans in there myself or Refinancings. I mean, you're who I go to for my own loans and you're in nearly all 50 states, right? And these are the states where the property is not where the investor resides.

 

Caeli Ridge (00:37:34) - Yes, sir. Exactly right. We are in 48 states. We are not in New York or North Dakota. Otherwise we're going to be funding everywhere that they're looking to purchase, refi, sell, etc..

 

Keith Weinhold (00:37:45) - We'll let our audience know where they can learn more, because I know you offer a lot of good free tools, like something we didn't get a chance to talk about a first lien helocs all in one loan. Like for example, you have a simulator there when an investor can just go ahead and run through that. So we're one find all of those resources.

 

Caeli Ridge (00:38:03) - So check out our website. There's a lot of good information on there. Lots of video content free education. The simulator link will be on there. If you wanted to check out the comparison between what you have now, your 3% interest rate, or your 2.5% interest rate compared to this all in one. I'll tell you guys that I've run that scenario all the time, and people are very surprised when they see that this adjustable rate first line is beating the pants off of a 2.25% rate.

 

Caeli Ridge (00:38:26) - So check that out. Our community is in the website we meet every other Tuesday. It's called live with Charlie. That's Ridge Lending group. Com. Email us info at Ridge Lending Group. Com and then you can call us of course toll free at (855) 747-4343. The easy way to remember is 85574 Ridge.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:38:45) - Charlie Ridge. Informative as always. And brazen. With the mortgage rate predictions. You can learn more about how they can help you at Ridge Lending group.com. It's been great having you back on the show Charlie.

 

Caeli Ridge (00:38:58) - Thank you Keith.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:39:06) - Oh, yeah, there's such experienced pros in there. And as you can see, they offer nearly every loan type. In fact, there were so many that I almost asked her, do you even loan lunch money to elementary school kids? Uh, because, uh, because they've seemingly got a loan type for most every real estate investment scenario that there is primary residence loans as well. Helpful people over there at Ridge. In fact, I even visited their headquarters office and I was hosted by Charlie there one day.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:39:38) - See what they can do for you in there. They are real strategists in helping you grow your real estate portfolio, going beyond just what a typical retail mortgage company does. It helps people with primary residences. You can join their free community events too, and they've really expanded their educational offerings to a giant degree the past couple of years. Financially free beats debt free, and she helps bring it to life and make it real. So big thanks to Charlie Ridge at Ridge Lending Group. Until next week, I'm your host, Keith Wangled. Don't quit your day dream.

 

Speaker 5 (00:40:17) - Nothing on this show should be considered specific, personal or professional advice. Please consult an appropriate tax, legal, real estate, financial or business professional for individualized advice. Opinions of guests are their own. Information is not guaranteed. All investment strategies have the potential for profit or loss. The host is operating on behalf of get Rich education LLC exclusively.

 

Speaker 6 (00:40:45) - The preceding program was brought to you by your home for wealth building. Get rich education.com.




Direct download: GREepisode489b_.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 4:00am EDT

Learn the pros and cons of bitcoin, the world’s largest cryptocurrency.

Bitcoin can be moved well across space and time. You can’t move dollars over time due to inflation; you can’t  move gold over space due to weight and security concerns.

Real estate, bitcoin, and gold are all scarce and take real-world resources to produce.

Bitcoin is a global digital currency that’s decentralized.

Nick Giambruno joins us to discuss why bitcoin has value today. 

Since there can only be 21 million bitcoin, it cannot be debased like dollars are.

By April, bitcoin will experience a halving. Rather than 900 new bitcoins brought into issuance daily, there will be 450. 

The SEC’s recent Spot EFT approval will give more investors bitcoin access.

The higher the stock-to-flow ratio, the harder the asset. 

What about governments shutting down bitcoin, regulating it, or taxing it to death? We discuss.

Bitcoin price volatility is a problem in currency adoption.

Lots of energy is used in bitcoin mining. But much of it is stranded energy.

Bitcoin cannot produce income.

Keith Weinhold stresses his preferred way to hold bitcoin.

Timestamps:

Bitcoin's value proposition (00:00:01)

Keith Weinhold introduces the topic of Bitcoin's value and why it is relevant to a real estate show.

Jamie Dimon's criticism of Bitcoin (00:05:27)

JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon expresses his disdain for Bitcoin and blockchain technology in a heated conversation.

Bitcoin's resistance to debasement (00:07:19)

Keith Weinhold discusses the resistance of Bitcoin to debasement and the skepticism of governments and financial institutions towards it.

The origin and value of Bitcoin (00:08:18)

Nick Giambruno, an international investor, explains the history and value proposition of Bitcoin, emphasizing its decentralization and resistance to debasement.

Bitcoin's hardness and production rate (00:14:21)

Nick Giambruno delves into the concept of Bitcoin's hardness and its production requirements, comparing it to other assets like gold and real estate.

Bitcoin's upcoming halving event (00:16:28)

Nick Giambruno discusses the significance of Bitcoin's upcoming halving event, which will impact its stock-to-flow ratio and reinforce its value proposition.

Bitcoin's scarcity (00:19:42)

Bitcoin's limited supply and its unique scarcity attribute, compared to other commodities like gold.

Upcoming halving event and Bitcoin ETF approval (00:20:53)

Discussion on the significance of the upcoming halving event and the approval of a new spot for Bitcoin ETF, indicating the growing acceptance of Bitcoin.

Bitcoin as a currency and value proposition (00:22:42)

The value of Bitcoin as a currency for transferring value and its resistance to debasement, emphasizing the importance of self-custody of Bitcoin.

Global adoption of Bitcoin (00:24:30)

Comparison of Bitcoin adoption in different nations, highlighting the potential benefits for early adopters and the impact of Bitcoin on the world's financial landscape.

Bitcoin's market potential and investment consideration (00:27:27)

The potential market share of Bitcoin in the global economy and the consideration of Bitcoin as an investment asset.

Government's ability to regulate Bitcoin (00:34:11)

Discussion on the government's potential regulation and taxation of Bitcoin, emphasizing the power of economic incentives and Bitcoin's resilience to government intervention.

Bitcoin's uniqueness and credibility (00:36:12)

Differentiating Bitcoin from other cryptocurrencies, highlighting its credibility and resistance to change, making it the real innovation in the crypto space.

Bitcoin as a Store of Value (00:37:55)

Discussion on Bitcoin's role as a store of value and its comparison to gold.

Bitcoin as an Emerging Form of Money (00:38:25)

Explanation of Bitcoin as an emerging form of money and its distinction from established money like gold.

Bitcoin's Transaction Network and the Lightning Network (00:39:37)

Explanation of Bitcoin's transaction network, scalability, and the use of the Lightning Network for smaller transactions.

Earning Income from Bitcoin (00:41:40)

Discussion on earning income from Bitcoin through related companies, dividends, and caution regarding Bitcoin lending services.

Bitcoin Exchanges and Custody (00:44:20)

The importance of custodying your own Bitcoin and the risks associated with centralized Bitcoin exchanges.

Connecting with the Guest (00:45:13)

Information on how to connect with the guest and access a helpful Bitcoin guide.

Bitcoin's Energy Use and Price Volatility (00:46:01)

Insights into Bitcoin's energy use, price volatility, and the use of stranded energy sources by miners.

Real Estate vs. Bitcoin (00:47:04)

Comparison of real estate as a wealth builder with the merits and risks of owning gold and Bitcoin.

Disclaimer and Conclusion (00:47:54)

Disclaimer about the content and a conclusion to the episode.

Resources mentioned:

Show Page:

GetRichEducation.com/488

More on Nick Giambruno:

FinancialUnderground.com

For access to properties or free help with a

GRE Investment Coach, start here:

GREmarketplace.com

Get mortgage loans for investment property:

RidgeLendingGroup.com or call 855-74-RIDGE 

or e-mail: info@RidgeLendingGroup.com

Invest with Freedom Family Investments. 

You get paid first: Text FAMILY to 66866

Will you please leave a review for the show? I’d be grateful. Search “how to leave an Apple Podcasts review” 

Top Properties & Providers:

GREmarketplace.com

GRE Free Investment Coaching:

GREmarketplace.com/Coach

Best Financial Education:

GetRichEducation.com

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Our YouTube Channel:

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Follow us on Instagram:

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Keith’s personal Instagram:

@keithweinhold

 

Complete episode transcript:

 

Keith Weinhold (00:00:01) - Welcome to GRE. I'm your host, Keith Weinhold. Why does Bitcoin have any value? And why is a real estate show dedicating one episode to this topic now? The benefits and criticisms of the world's largest cryptocurrency Bitcoin today on Get Rich Education. If you like the Get Rich Education podcast, you're going to love art. Don't quit your day. Dream newsletter. No, I here I write every word of the letter myself. It wires your mind for wealth. It helps you make money in your sleep and updates you on vital real estate investing trends. It's free. Sign up egg get rich education com slash letter. It's real content that makes a real difference in your life, spiced with a dash of humor rather than living below your means, learn how to grow your means right now. You can also easily get the letter by texting gray to 66866. Text gray to 66866.

 

Corey Coates (00:01:06) - You're listening to the show that has created more financial freedom than nearly any show in the world. This is get rich education.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:01:22) - Work degree from Quito, Ecuador, where I am today, to the Mosquito Coast, Nicaragua, and across 188 nations worldwide.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:01:29) - You're listening. One of the United States longest running and most less than two shows on real estate investing. I'm your host, Keith Reinhold. Yes, we're a real estate show, but with 488 episodes, it's time to focus at least one of them. Finally, on Bitcoin. We'll bring it back to US real estate next week. Now, this is for a few reasons. Today, Bitcoin is largely misunderstood. It's become so big that it's hard to ignore. And there are two recent Bitcoin events two happenings with global impact that makes now the right time to cover this. Now look, I think that it's human nature that when you learn about something new for the first time and you don't understand how it works like Bitcoin, it's sort of innate to you start criticizing it or sort of discounted in your mind, chiefly because you don't understand it. Though Bitcoin's pseudonymous creator, Satoshi Nakamoto wrote the Bitcoin paper in 2008 and the first Bitcoin was issued in 2009. And, you know, when I first heard about it sometime after that, I probably discounted it in my mind as well.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:02:45) - And I think most people that don't understand Bitcoin, you know, they first think something like, oh come on, what is this. Just magic internet money. How does that work? How could that have any value. And I think is one matures when encountering the unknown. They inquire rather than criticize it. Look now and I'm getting really personal here, aren't I? I don't do drugs and I never have. But I don't criticize those that do drugs because it's a world that I just don't understand at all. Last year I was having dinner with a couple. They asked me what book I'm currently reading, and I told them that it's a 350 page book about Bitcoin, and the response was laughter, sort of dismissing it. And they said, well, how could anyone write that many pages about Bitcoin just completely discounting the whole thing? Well, for me, a turning point on Bitcoin is when I found highly intelligent people that understood it well and they were excited about it and they endorsed it. Now real estate has more intrinsic value than the dollar or gold or Bitcoin.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:04:02) - Because real estate is essential to your survival. You can make arguments that the dollar, gold and Bitcoin all have questionable backing. But today enough people agree that the dollar, gold and Bitcoin all have value. People are agreeing all three gold, the dollar and Bitcoin have varying levels then of anthropogenic faith. Today you and I, we live in a digital world that's comprised of 195 world nations. Well then, shouldn't money be made of something that's digital and doesn't know any national borders? Think of Bitcoin's value proposition this way you cannot move dollars across time. That's due to inflation. You can't move gold across space that's due to weight and security. But consider this Bitcoin can be officially moved across both space and time. Its supply is absolutely fixed. At 21 million, there can never be more than 21 million bitcoin either. It's traded on the blockchain, which is basically a digital ledger, but not every intelligent or influential finance person believes in Bitcoin. Of course, not every one of them. For example, it gets a little heated here from last month.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:05:27) - This is one of the most powerful men in the world. JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon. He's getting annoyed about CNBC asking him about Bitcoin just entirely too often. What do you make of the other firms the BlackRock's of the world.

 

CNBC (00:05:42) - That that obviously and Larry Fink change his view of this obviously. And maybe he changed his view because you think he genuinely believes in Bitcoin or or believed it because he thinks that there's a marketplace for it and he wants to be part of that market. But what do you think of the there's about a dozen big financial companies, fidelity included.

 

Jamie Dimon, JP Morgan Chase (00:05:59) - Number one I don't care. So just please stop talking about this. And and I don't know what he would say about blockchain versus currencies to do something versus Bitcoin that does nothing. And maybe that's not different than me. But you know, this is what makes a market. People have opinions. This is the last time I'm ever in state. In my opinion.

 

CNBC (00:06:18) - Gold really didn't do anything either.

 

Jamie Dimon, JP Morgan Chase (00:06:21) - Yet because it's limited in supply.

 

Jamie Dimon, JP Morgan Chase (00:06:23) - So it's and it's been used. Uh, so you think so, huh? I do think there's a good chance that when bitcoin when we get to that 20 million bitcoins 42 know that Satoshi is going to come on there laugh hysterically. Go quiet. All Bitcoin is going to be erased I think. How the hell do you know it's going to stop at 21? I've never met one person who told me they know for a fact they take that as it's not.

 

CNBC (00:06:44) - It hasn't happened because by the last one will be mined in 2150. And it gets harder and harder every time there's another halving. But but, Jamie, I do like looking back over.

 

Jamie Dimon, JP Morgan Chase (00:06:55) - Just do what you want. I'll do what I want. Ask for gold.

 

CNBC (00:06:57) - You can. The six characteristics that make gold valuable for 4000 years. They're all present in Bitcoin. That's all I'm saying. I love you and I don't want to. And I also don't I don't also don't want to be a you may enjoy Joe.

 

Jamie Dimon, JP Morgan Chase (00:07:08) - You may be right.

 

Jamie Dimon, JP Morgan Chase (00:07:09) - Yeah. Like I don't own gold either. So okay. That's what.

 

CNBC (00:07:11) - I mean.

 

CNBC (00:07:12) - Couple of quick final question.

 

Jamie Dimon, JP Morgan Chase (00:07:12) - I like to own things that pay me incomes, but it doesn't cost money to carry anyway. And it costs money to carry Bitcoin to. By the way.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:07:19) - Uh, that was Jamie Diamond. Now governments and banksters like Jamie Diamond, they often dislike bitcoin because it cuts out the use of their chief product, the dollar. So governments are especially hesitant to want to promote bitcoin, a lot of them in the world. Anyway, I've got a conversation with a bitcoin expert coming up. We're going to talk about its value proposition and then the criticisms. Yes, I'm in Quito today. I was last year in Ecuador two years ago, this Colorado sized nation of 18 million people. I plan to attempt climbing to the summit of a 20,000 foot mountain later in the week. As for today, let's continue with why should Bitcoin have any value? Today's guest is the founder of the Financial Underground, and he is the editor in chief of that publication.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:08:18) - He's a renowned international investor, and he specializes in identifying big picture geopolitical and economic trends ahead of the crowd. And you've seen him featured seemingly in everything from Forbes to the Ron Paul Liberty Report. He was a speaker at the well-known New Orleans Investment Conference as well. Hey, it's great to welcome on to gray, Nick. Jim Bruno.

 

Nick Giambruno (00:08:41) - Hey, Keith, great to be with you.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:08:43) - I think a lot of our listeners are real estate investors are going to be wondering now, why are you talking about Bitcoin on a real estate show? Actually, I think there are a few more commonalities here than what a lot of people think. What a real estate in Bitcoin have in common. They're both scarce, neither can be easily deluded, and they both take real world resources to produce more of. You could apply those same three attributes to gold. So real estate gold and bitcoin they have this scarcity. And really I think that's a wise investing theme. Go ahead and invest in what's scarce. Limit what's abundant and take zero cost to produce like dollars.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:09:21) - So really that's the commonality between real estate in Bitcoin. But on a real estate show, I think we have a lot of listeners that just don't have an overall common understanding. Nick, of just what is bitcoin and why does it have any value in the first place?

 

Nick Giambruno (00:09:37) - Well, that is a some very good observations and a very profound question. What is Bitcoin. Well, Bitcoin is a relatively new asset. However it has been decades in the making. People don't understand that Bitcoin didn't just fall out of the sky, or is some kind of accident in some mad sciences garage. This is something that has been in the the works basically since the late 70s, and it came out of the Cypherpunk movement. Now, you may have heard of these people. You may have not. The Cypherpunks are basically I find them as the good guys. They are involved in creating technologies that empower the individual and disempower the state. They are behind some of the most prominent freedom oriented technologies that you and I may take for granted, including encryption.

 

Nick Giambruno (00:10:27) - And that's another story in and of itself. Let me just briefly get into that, because that's what puts the crypto cryptography in cryptocurrency. Cryptography is a very important field. It's basically the method of encoding information so that only the recipient can see it. And it's very important to understand that while we take for granted the average person has access to unbreakable cryptography today, that was not always the case. Cryptography has been around since the time of the ancient Greeks, and maybe even before, but it's always been a government monopoly until very recently in terms of historical standards, when cryptography was made available to the average person. That is a very profound thing, because now the average person can secure their information and secure their online life in a way that nobody can break. The US government can't break it. Chinese government can't break it, nobody can break it. And that is very important. And that laid the foundation for Bitcoin. So what is bitcoin. It's just a summit. But it is a superior alternative to central banking.

 

Nick Giambruno (00:11:27) - And that is a very revolutionary thing. It basically does the job of what a central bank does but much much, much better and removes all of the corruption, all of the nastiness that goes along with central banking. So what we have here is a genuine, workable alternative to central banking, and we can get into the details of that. But if you want to look at it, what it is, that's what it is. And at the same time, it's a form of money that is not just resistant to debasement, it's totally resistant to debasement. You're talking about gold and real estate. Well, gold. What made gold money over thousands of years? Yes, it is scarce. However, I always like to use this example. There's a concept that's related to scarcity, but it's not that it was scarce. And the reason is, is think about platinum and palladium. There's actually scarcer than gold, like there are fewer ounces of platinum and palladium in the world than there are gold ounces. So why don't people use platinum and palladium as money? It's a very, very important point.

 

Nick Giambruno (00:12:26) - The reason is, is because the platinum and palladium supply is not resistant to debasement. So it's scarcer, but it's not resistant to debasement. What does that mean? It means the annual supply growth of platinum and palladium are basically equal to the stockpiles. So depending on what this year or next year's annual production of platinum or palladium are going to be, it can wildly swing the market. That is not true of gold. Gold is only about 1.5% growth per year. And that's very, very consistent. What does that mean? That is a very important concept. So the gold supply only grows at about 1.5% per year.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:13:02) - And this is basically an inflation rate.

 

Nick Giambruno (00:13:04) - Yes it is its inflation rate. But it's very small and nobody can really change that. Think about it. There's a. It's not as if people don't want to increase the gold supply. They would love to. The way that the gold is distributed in the world, and the cost it takes to mining it puts a really hard limit on what you can produce each year.

 

Nick Giambruno (00:13:22) - So that's what makes it a good store of value. And if something is not a good store of value, it's not going to be a good money. These are some very, very fundamental concepts I'm talking about because they also apply to Bitcoin.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:13:35) - Then when someone asked me what Bitcoin is to give it a really short definition, I call Bitcoin a global digital currency that's decentralized. And you brought up the decentralization. That's really important. That's where I can make a peer to peer payment without having to go through an intermediary where I can send my Bitcoin directly over to Nick. There was no bank involved in that transaction, for example, the decentralization of Bitcoin. But we talk more about why Bitcoin has value. I believe you began touching on it there, Nick. Bitcoin has this hardness, which is a strange term to people because Bitcoin is digital. So can you tell us more about Bitcoin's value that comes through its hardness.

 

Nick Giambruno (00:14:21) - Let me just touch on a quick point you made also. So simply put, the value proposition of Bitcoin is that it allows anybody, anywhere in the world to send and receive value without depending on any third party.

 

Nick Giambruno (00:14:32) - At the same time. It's a form of money that is 100% resistant to debasement. That's its value proposition. That's a very profound thing. So going to the hardness. Yes, hardness is a concept that a lot of people get confused. Look, I love gold, I own gold, I recommend gold chain from the gold community. And I know the gold community. So I think a lot of people in the gold community get confused around this hardness now. They think it's hard, like physically hard, like abrasive metal. That's not what art means. Hard. And in terms of a hard asset, what it means is hard to produce. That's what it means. Yeah, that's what a hard asset is. It's hard to produce. And what is the opposite of that? Something that's easy to produce. Nobody would want to store their value, store their savings, store their economic energy into something that somebody else can make with no effort, almost like, you know, oh, let's put our life savings in arcade tokens or frequent flyer miles.

 

Nick Giambruno (00:15:26) - It's ridiculous when you think of it in that way. But that is, in my humble opinion, the most important attribute of money is that it's hard to produce all the other attributes of money. Quite frankly, are meaningless if the money is not hard to produce. Because if it's not hard to produce, none of the other stuff matters. And that's the most crucial attribute of money.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:15:45) - Yes, reinforcing why we have that investing theme of invest in something that's scarce and difficult to produce and takes real world resources to produce, much like real estate does. Much like gold with all the mining and assaying and much like Bitcoin, because to produce new Bitcoin, it takes electricity, it takes hardware and it takes software, some real world resources in order to produce Bitcoin. We talk about the production rate or the inflation rate in just a couple months. Here we're coming up on something really interesting, which is really one reason why I have you on the show talking about Bitcoin now. And that is the having event, the halving being that rate of new Bitcoin issuance is cut in half every four years.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:16:28) - So tell us more about that and bring the stock to flow ratio into the conversation here. We're at a cusp.

 

Nick Giambruno (00:16:34) - Of a very important moment in monetary history. Because you can quantify the hardness of an asset. It is quantifiable. It is basically the inverse of the supply growth. And there's another way of saying that, as you mentioned, the stock to flow ratio basically. In short, you got the stockpiles. That's what's available. And then you have the flow which is like the new supply. So the higher the stock to flow, the harder the asset is and the more resistant to debasement it is. And same thing when you take the the supply growth, you want a smaller supply growth. It's just the inverse of the stock to flow. So gold has always been mankind's artist money for thousands of years and gold's stock to blow ratios about I think it's around 60 which means it takes about 60 years of current production to equal current supplies. If you look at silver, it's much less than gold.

 

Nick Giambruno (00:17:25) - And every other commodity is closer to one, which means that every year the new production basically equals the existing stockpiles. And that's not a very good attribute for something that you want to have as a store of value. Now, what is going to happen in this having that's coming up in around April of this year? You can quantify the stock that flow. I just told you how to quantify it. So right now Bitcoin and gold have about equal stock to flow ratios in about equal hardness. However a key feature of the Bitcoin protocol is that every four years the new Bitcoin supply issuance gets cut in half until around the year 2140, when it is just goes to zero. So Bitcoin is not only going to exceed gold's hardness in a few months, it's going to double it. Now that is a very interesting moment in monetary history because mankind has not had a harder money than gold I don't think. Ever. So this is all going to be very important and it's coming very soon in April. Late April I think is when it's going to happen.

 

Nick Giambruno (00:18:28) - So a very important moment in monetary history.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:18:31) - There is real profundity there with the stock to flow ratio of Bitcoin exceeding that of gold with the upcoming having. And if you, the listener still hung up on the stock to flow ratio, we're talking about the ratio of the existing stock, how much of this stuff already exists, whether it's real estate or gold or Bitcoin divided by the rate of new issuance. So the higher the stock to flow ratio, and as it has the greater hardness it has. And currently 900 new bitcoins per day are being produced. And the having means just what it sounds like in April that will drop to 450 new bitcoins being mined into existence each day. So really you can think of Bitcoin as being disinflationary. It will continue to inflate until the year 2140. Like Nick described. That's when new bitcoin will cease to be mined. And until that point, the new amount the flow continues to get halved. Every four years, there will only ever be 21 million Bitcoin that exist, and 19.6 million of those have already been mined.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:19:36) - So you can get an idea of the hardness and how this helps supply the value of Bitcoin.

 

Nick Giambruno (00:19:42) - Well, absolutely. And it's he talks about that. I think it's something like 93% of the time, supply has already been mined, and the remaining 7% are going to come online over the next 120 years or so. You might want to get some before other people figure this out. There is definitely not enough Bitcoin for every millionaire to have one bitcoin, it's far less. I think there's something maybe 50 million millionaires in the world, probably more. They can't all have a bitcoin. It's a very tight supply and we have a situation here too that is related. Because Bitcoin is the only asset, the only commodity were higher prices cannot induce more supply. If gold went to 10,000, you can be sure there are going to be more gold miners getting into the business, more economic deposits being found and and exploited and more supply eventually coming on to the market. Great point. And the same is true for every commodity.

 

Nick Giambruno (00:20:38) - Gold is just the most resistant to that process. However, Bitcoin, no matter how high the price goes, it cannot induce the production of more Bitcoin. That's a very unique scarcity attribute that I don't think people really appreciate very much. It's certainly there.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:20:53) - So this upcoming halving event is one reason why I'm having Nick on the show now to do our first ever Bitcoin episode in almost 500 episodes. And the other reason is the nation see of the SEC approving a new spot to Bitcoin ETF. And all that basically means is it helps give everyday investors really easy access to Bitcoin without having to set up a crypto wallet and bam, hey, your mom can become a crypto bro now.

 

Nick Giambruno (00:21:22) - It is certainly a milestone in acceptance. I think it signifies that Bitcoin is no longer a fringe. It's here to stay. It took over ten years for the SEC to approve one of these things. I think the Winklevoss twins applied over ten years ago for the first Bitcoin ETF, so they reluctantly did it. I don't think they want it to do it.

 

Nick Giambruno (00:21:43) - I think they lost a couple of key court cases that kind of forced their hand, but they did approve it. I frankly don't recommend the ETFs. It's not really Bitcoin because what you have is a Bitcoin IOU, several Bitcoin IOUs. So let's say you buy the Blackrock Bitcoin ETF. Will you have an IOU from your broker for the Blackrock ETF share. And the broker has an IOU from Blackrock. And then Blackrock has an IOU from Coinbase which actually holds the Bitcoin. So I always tell people look it's a spectrum. If you want to take that trade off and you're taking a trade off for convenience over a security and sovereignty, if you want to take that trade off, that's go right ahead. But be have your eyes wide open and be conscious of the trade off that you're making. I always prefer to, uh, tell people Bitcoin is unique. This is a bearer asset. People forget about bearer assets. Bearer assets are a very good thing. They give the people who hold them ownership over them.

 

Nick Giambruno (00:22:42) - I think people who are interested in sovereignty. One thing too that's very important is that even if the Bitcoin price stays flat forever, it doesn't go up at all. It still offers people tremendous value as what we were talking about before, even if it stays flat and doesn't go up ever again, it's still offers anybody, anywhere in the world the ability to send and receive value from anybody else, anywhere in the world, and to hold money that's resistant to debasement, that's hugely valuable, even if the price doesn't go up. So and you can only get those benefits if you hold Bitcoin properly in your own bitcoin wallet, where you control the keys and only you control the keys, because that's who has ownership to this. Bitcoin is by who controls those private keys. You can just kind of think of that like the password dear Bitcoin. So that's what you want to do. If you can learn how to drive a car you can learn how to self-custody Bitcoin.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:23:33) - I love what you did there, Nick, because what you helped us do is you helped us transition from talking about Bitcoin as an investment asset to using bitcoin as a currency, if you wish to use it to transfer value.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:23:47) - Really, Nick, I think a lot of people in the United States, one reason that they're not that interested in Bitcoin is because our currency, our United States dollar, it sure has problems. It sure recently went through a big wave of inflation, but our currency just is not as bad as some of these worthless pieces of paper have been in the Argentine currency or in Turkey or in Iran or Haiti. So maybe Americans don't have enough of a reason to want to go ahead and get a currency that holds its value. So what are your thoughts with what people in other nations are doing, including El Salvador, with immediate legal tender versus the United States, where we have this dollar that's being debased but just not quite at the rate of most other world nations.

 

Nick Giambruno (00:24:30) - That's a good point. I see this in my travels around the world. It may seem like an advantage for the Americans, but I think it's a disadvantage because they're going to be catch on to this last because they're going to have, oh, we've got the dollar.

 

Nick Giambruno (00:24:43) - The dollar's great. So why do I need to look at other alternatives. And and they're going to be the last people. So you're going to have I think what you could see over this the next few years, and certainly over the longer term, is that countries like El Salvador, the countries that are experiencing the highest rates of inflation now and are thus more motivated to look at a superior form of money like Bitcoin or gold, but a lot of them are going to Bitcoin. These are going to be the countries that might fare better over the long term, because they're going to be relatively early adopters in this superior monetary technology. Nobody takes a horse and buggy from New York to California anymore. No, you don't need to because you have airplanes, you have cars, superior technologies for transportation. And likewise, we now have a superior technology for money, which is to say storing and exchanging value. That's all money is. People think it's all confusing. You need a PhD and there's all these charts and confusing jargon.

 

Nick Giambruno (00:25:38) - Money is not confusing. It's actually intuitive and anybody in the world can understand it. It's just something that stores and exchanges value. It's really quite simple. So now we have a superior technology for storing and exchanging value. And I think people who adopt it first are going to reap the most benefits. There are a lot of Americans who have adopted it, but they have been spoiled by the fact that the dollar has been the world's reserve currency. Now, I think that's going away. That's a whole other story. I think that's the two big reasons why, you know, you shouldn't just depend on the dollar one. We can talk. This is a whole new discussion about the dollar as the world reserve currency. I think it's going away. But now despite that we also have a superior alternative with Bitcoin. So yeah, I think the people who are going to adopt this technology sooner are going to reap the most benefits.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:26:24) - Well, Nick, in your opinion, is Bitcoin's takeover inevitable and how does that look?

 

Nick Giambruno (00:26:30) - I don't think anything's inevitable.

 

Nick Giambruno (00:26:32) - I think it's a good that I mean, if I thought it was inevitable, I would sell everything and buy it. I have a more diversified portfolio, but I have a strong conviction in it, very strong conviction in it. But nothing is certain. Nothing's 100%. So I never tell people, you know, and I'm not giving anybody any investment advice. I'm not a registered investment advisor or anything like that. But in any case, even if I was, I wouldn't tell anybody to go all in on anything. And that's certainly not how I manage my risk. However, I do have a very high conviction in it, and I think as it stands now, it has an excellent chance at gaining huge market share in the market for money. And people don't think of money as a market, like a real estate market or a technology market, or the market for any industry. But money is a market. It's probably the biggest market. And I think Bitcoin is you need to put it into perspective, the market cap of all the gold in the entire world is about $13.7 trillion.

 

Nick Giambruno (00:27:27) - The market cap for all Bitcoin in the world, last I checked, is around $850 billion. So we're less than 10% of gold's market cap. It has. And that's not even including all the fiat currencies. All the fiat currencies have a much larger market cap than even gold. So Bitcoin is just a blip on people's radars. So I think it has a lot of upside from here.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:27:46) - One important question an investor can ask themselves once they learn more about Bitcoin is, can I really afford to have absolutely none? You're listening to get reciprocation. We're talking with Nick Bruno of the Financial Underground Warren. We come back when now we've talked about the upside of Bitcoin. Let's talk about a lot of the criticisms you're listening to get rejection I'm your host Keith Weiner. Role. Under this a specific expert with income property, you need Ridge Lending Group and MLS for 256. In gray history, from beginners to veterans, they provided our listeners with more mortgages than anyone. It's where I get my own loans for single family rentals up to four Plex's.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:28:29) - Start your pre-qualification and chat with President Charlie Ridge personally. They'll even customize a plan tailored to you for growing your portfolio. Start at Ridge Lending group.com Ridge lending group.com. You know, I'll just tell you, for the most passive part of my real estate investing, personally, I put my own dollars with Freedom Family Investments because their funds pay me a stream of regular cash flow in returns, or better than a bank savings account up to 12%. Their minimums are as low as 25 K. You don't even need to be accredited for some of them. It's all backed by real estate and that kind of love. How the tax benefit of doing this can offset capital gains and your W2 jobs income. They've always given me exactly their stated return paid on time. So it's steady income, no surprises while I'm sleeping or just doing the things I love. For a little insider tip, I've invested in their power fund to get going on that text family to 66866. Oh, and this isn't a solicitation. If you want to invest where I do, just go ahead and text family to six, 686, six.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:29:52) - This is Richard Duncan, publisher of Macro Watch. Listen to get Rich education with Keith Winchell. And don't quit your day dream. You're listening to SOS created more financial freedom for busy people just like you than nearly any show in the world. This is jet versus cash, and I'm your host, Keith Whitehall. We're talking with the Financial Underground's Nick Bruno. We're talking about Bitcoin in a dedicated episode for the first time ever here in the history of the show. And when we had a chance to talk to Nick Bruno, you can see why we wanted to do this. But, Nick, a lot of people in the United States are concerned that the US government might do something similar to what China did and just go ahead and shut down Bitcoin and shut down cryptocurrency because Bitcoin, it basically competes with the US government's product, the dollar. So what are your thoughts when people say, oh I don't know about that. The government can just shut Bitcoin down.

 

Nick Giambruno (00:30:53) - I'm glad you mentioned China because the communist governor of China is a very powerful governments.

 

Nick Giambruno (00:30:58) - It's one of the most powerful and maybe arguably the most powerful government in the world. And they've tried many times to ban Bitcoin. You know how it turned out. It was a total failure because Bitcoin is basically code in its mathematics. So it's not the easiest thing to ban even if they wanted to ban it. You're trying to ban mathematics because that's all Bitcoin is. And further many Bitcoin wallets and it all works on cryptography. As and as I said, cryptography is just advanced mathematics. Many Bitcoin wallets have a way to back up your funds a 12 word phrase. So if you can memorize well words, which represents your wallet, you can potentially store billions of dollars just in your head. Now this is how are you going to ban that? You can't ban that. It's completely impractical. I always tell people, you know, look at how governments have tried to ban cannabis. Everybody has been able to buy cannabis in any city they wanted to. And then also other countries have tried to ban US dollars.

 

Nick Giambruno (00:31:57) - Argentina tries to ban U.S. dollars, Venezuela tries to ban U.S. dollars. You know what it does? It creates nothing. But an underground market doesn't extinguish people's desire to have dollars. And I think that's what we have here. I think economic incentives are more powerful than governments. And aside from that, I don't think that's going to happen because what they approve all these ETFs, that they were just going to turn around and ban it? I don't think so. Further, you have lots of court cases. There is established federal court cases that have ruled that computer code, which Bitcoin is just computer code, is equivalent to free speech protected under the First amendment of the US Constitution. Oh yes, I understand the Constitution is not people can change it and it's malleable. But still, that complicates any government's desire to ban it. They're going to have to overturn those federal court cases. That's not going to be easy. And even if they do, how are you going to ban something that somebody can just memorize with 12 words written on a piece of paper or in their head, it's completely impractical.

 

Nick Giambruno (00:32:58) - And then, of course, you have the example of China, which has banned Bitcoin several times. You know what? Absolutely nothing happened. But Bitcoin business is moving out of China and Bitcoin adoption among regular Chinese people going up. They can hinder businesses and large like entities that have big presences. They can hinder that certainly. But Bitcoin is global. It'll just go where it's treated best. It's like water. It'll just move to wherever it's treated best. I always say this too. So even if like the northern hemisphere disappeared, let's say there's an all out nuclear war between Russia and the US that will basically wipe out the northern hemisphere. You know what? Bitcoin won't miss a beat in the southern hemisphere. It'll still keep going in the southern hemisphere because it is decentralized and un over tens of thousands of computers around the world. And if even one of those computers survives Bitcoin lives on. So I think this is a very, very hard I wouldn't want to be trying to ban this thing because it's not practical.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:33:56) - Other critics say, all right, if the government can't ban it, well, the government can just then allow it make it be legal, but they can regulate the heck out of it and they can tax it at really high rates. What are your thoughts there?

 

Nick Giambruno (00:34:11) - Well, the government can do whatever it wants, but I think, yes, it can do all of those things. But I think here's the main point is that Bitcoin is we talked about economic incentives. Economic incentives are more powerful than politicians. And I think that's a truism. So as more people become holders of bitcoin aware of bitcoin, I don't think restricting bitcoin or banning bitcoin or adding regulations to Bitcoin or adding taxation to it, I don't think that's going to help anybody win an election. Is that going to help anybody win an election? I don't think so. That would be extremely politically unpopular. Yeah, that could happen. It would be bad news for the people who live in that jersey. But you know what? It's not going to kill bitcoin.

 

Nick Giambruno (00:34:52) - It's going to just be a hindrance for the people who live under these Luddite politicians who would do such a thing. But I don't think they're going to do such a thing. They just approve the ETF. I think Bitcoin has reached escape velocity in terms of its political popularity. I don't think anybody is going to win an election by being tough on Bitcoin.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:35:11) - A number of congresspeople hold bitcoin, Cynthia Loomis being one of the more prominent ones. And then you and I talked about the SEC spot Bitcoin ETF approval earlier. Well, that's a bit of a de facto stamp of approval on bitcoin really in a sense. And I think another criticism Nick, in my opinion this is easy to dispel. But some people will say, well, there are tens of thousands of cryptocurrencies out there. This stuff's just junk. There's something like hump coin that a prominent rapper promotes. I mean, all this stuff is just a bunch of junk. When all these cryptocurrencies come out. And I tend to think that's very different than Bitcoin.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:35:50) - Just like if there's some new stock IPO with zero fundamentals that comes out, I mean that doesn't diminish blue chippers like Apple or Microsoft at all. So I think of Bitcoin as the first or one of the first cryptocurrencies with a finite supply. So these overnight fly by night new cryptos I don't think that's really a very good criticism of Bitcoin.

 

Nick Giambruno (00:36:12) - No, I think this is one of the most popular misconceptions is that there is this crypto asset class and that Bitcoin is just one of 20,000 cryptocurrencies. And I think this is transparently false. It's like saying, oh, you know an increase in the pyrite supply is going to, you know, dilute the gold or something right. So it's kind of ridiculous. And the reason behind this is very simple. Bitcoin is the only one that nobody controls. Nobody can change bitcoin. It's the only one that is like that from Ethereum which is number two on down. They can be changed. A group of people can get together and change it. And in fact, Ethereum's monetary policy has been changed more often than the Federal Reserve's monetary policy.

 

Nick Giambruno (00:36:54) - It's just instead of the FOMC getting together and deciding what we should do with the money supply, it's a group of Ethereum developers and insiders that get together and change it. And the same thing is true of every other cryptocurrency. So that's the very defining feature of Bitcoin is that nobody can change it. That's what makes it interesting. If somebody could change Bitcoin, it wouldn't be interesting. And we don't need to get into the weeds of that. But needless to say, Bitcoin is the only one where the supply has credibility. We all know the bitcoin supply is 21 million. Nobody can do anything to change that. What is the Bitcoin supply going to be in five years? I could tell you with precision what it will be in five years. I can tell you with precision what it'll be in ten years. And you tell me what the Ethereum supply is going to be in five years. Can you tell me what the supply is going to be in ten years? You tell me what any cryptocurrency aside from Bitcoin supply is going to be in five years.

 

Nick Giambruno (00:37:41) - No you can't because it depends on how the developers are going to change it. So it's quite ridiculous to lump these two things together. They're entirely separate. Crypto is a cesspool. Quite frankly. Bitcoin is the real innovation.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:37:55) - And immutable protocol as they call it. Nick, I think one criticism is to pull back. We all know that money is three things. It's a store of value. It's a medium of exchange and it's a unit of account. And a lot of people say, I don't think Bitcoin can be a legitimate currency because all people do is store it. So it might meet the store of value criterion of those three. But I don't know about its legitimacy as a currency. Does that matter? I mean, people kind of use gold as a store of value, but not a currency. What are your thoughts?

 

Nick Giambruno (00:38:25) - Yes, it does matter. And it's a good question. The answer is is Bitcoin is not an established money. Take gold for example. Gold has been around for thousands of years.

 

Nick Giambruno (00:38:34) - It is an established form of money. Bitcoin is an emerging form of money. It's a very big distinction. So I personally think the way this will go and you know people disagree. But I think just logically, if you look at it, yes, story of value comes first. Why. Because once people store their value in Bitcoin, the monetary network of people who will be willing to exchange that bitcoin for something else grows and you can't have one before the other in terms of like nobody's going to exchange bitcoin if they're not already storing bitcoin. So the more people that store bitcoin have it available to exchange it for other people, it's like a network effect, any kind of network effect. That's a monetary network effect. And that's time to build further Bitcoin related misunderstanding is you kind of view Bitcoin in a different lens than just paying for like a cup of coffee, because that's really not what it's made for. The Bitcoin network has a hard limit on the number of transactions that I can process every day in order to keep it decentralized, because if it processed everybody's coffee transaction, you would need huge data centers to run the Bitcoin software.

 

Nick Giambruno (00:39:37) - The matter is, is that the Bitcoin software needs to be decentralized. So right now, anybody who has an average laptop, an average Raspberry Pi can run Bitcoin. That is very important for its decentralization. And if you were putting everybody's retail transaction on the Bitcoin blockchain would be impossible. You need large data centers. Now does that mean Bitcoin can't scale to become a medium of exchange? Absolutely not. You have to just think of bitcoin. What is a Bitcoin transaction represents. It represents final international settlement and clearance. So it's more akin to an international wire transfer. You wouldn't pay for a cup of coffee with from a Swiss bank account to Starbucks in New York. That's basically what you're talking about. What you do is you build layers. There are different layers that are built on top of that bedrock, which is the Bitcoin network that is immutable, unchangeable, and then you build transaction networks on top of that. So what we have with Bitcoin, the most prominent one right now is called the Lightning Network, which is another network that's built on top of Bitcoin that is really more suitable for smaller day to day coffee transactions.

 

Nick Giambruno (00:40:43) - You can actually send about 1/32 of a penny over lightning. So you can do all sorts of micro-transactions. Very interesting. So that's akin to, you know, like a credit card or a credit card is kind of like a layer two network that's built on top of central banks, which do international clearing and settling, and credit cards are built on top of that. And you can think of the same kind of solutions that are going to be built on Bitcoin. You're going to have different layers for different applications. And in terms of these medium of exchange and transaction network in Bitcoin it's the Lightning Network. And it's very exciting to use.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:41:19) - Yeah the Lightning Network it's been around for a while. It's been getting more adoption to help promote payments through Bitcoin. Being a real estate investing show here, oftentimes our listeners are interested in buying a property that will produce income from a tenant that's in that property. Can Bitcoin produce income?

 

Nick Giambruno (00:41:40) - Bitcoin itself cannot produce income because it's just simply money. It's simply an asset in the same sense that gold doesn't produce income.

 

Nick Giambruno (00:41:47) - If you want to earn income from Bitcoin, invest in Bitcoin related companies and Bitcoin related businesses that pay dividends. There are some and there is going to be many more. There are Bitcoin mining companies. These are companies I specialize in covering. In my financial research. They're relatively new. They don't pay dividends yet, but there are several that are looking to establish dividends. You can also lend your bitcoin I mean that's not bitcoin giving you a yield. That's you earning a yield from lending your bitcoin. I would caution you because there's been a lot of these kinds of bitcoin lending services that have gone bankrupt. BlockFi Celsius I'd be. And so whenever I hear about Bitcoin yields I caution people to be not just vigilant, be double vigilant of how you would normally be because there's been so many scams in this area and bad companies that have gone bankrupt. Taking advantage of people looking to earn a yield on their bitcoin. It's really a nascent industry. And you know what? Look at Bitcoin's compounded annual growth rate over any period of time for years.

 

Nick Giambruno (00:42:50) - You don't need a yield. It's going up if the trends continue. And I always tell people if you're going to invest in Bitcoin, have at least a four year time horizon, because that's a long time horizon. But the reason is, is because that gives you through one halving cycle, these having cycles go every four years. It's almost impossible. There's maybe a couple of instances, a couple of days where the bitcoin price wasn't higher than it was four years ago. So I always tell people have a four year time horizon when you're dealing with Bitcoin. And when you look at the returns, that could be possible. And I think the pastor. Returns. Past performance doesn't guarantee anything in the future, but I think that being said, we can expect this cycle to be similar to the other cycles. When you see that kind of potential, it should really make you not interested in these yield products.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:43:39) - You mentioned a couple of bankrupt crypto exchanges there, BlockFi and Celsius. I got caught up in some of that.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:43:48) - Now I keep all of mine on a hard wallet because really what these exchanges do is they're centralize something that's supposed to be decentralized like Bitcoin, and it gives Bitcoin a really bad name. Nick, I had some people reach out to me when FTX imploded and people said, this proves that Bitcoin is a scam. And I had to gently explain to people, whoa whoa whoa whoa whoa whoa whoa. Just because Wells Fargo or Chase fails. We didn't say the dollar failed. It wasn't a failure in Bitcoin. It was a failure in these exchanges.

 

Nick Giambruno (00:44:20) - Oh, yes. This has been going on for a long time. And before FTX, there's Mt. Gox. There's a lot of these things. So I think the underlying lesson here in all of these examples is that don't trust third parties. And with Bitcoin you don't need to trust their authorities because if you can learn to custody your own Bitcoin, you are totally responsible, totally in control of your destiny. You don't have to worry about one of these bitcoin companies going bankrupt because you hold it and only you hold it.

 

Nick Giambruno (00:44:48) - And I think that's what makes it special.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:44:51) - This has been a great chat and I think a really good Bitcoin 101 for a person that still doesn't understand very much about it. And you help people understand Bitcoin, you do an awful lot of other things, including informing people about global trends and macroeconomics. So if someone wants to connect with you and learn more from you, what's the best way for them to do that?

 

Nick Giambruno (00:45:13) - The best place is Financial Underground Comm. I have a really helpful Bitcoin guide that shows people how to use it in the most sovereign and the most private ways possible, and I keep that guide up to date with the current best practices, because these things change very frequently. Like what is the best wallet, what is the best hardware wallet, and so forth. So I keep this guide alive with the best current practices. I think that would be a big help for people. Could definitely save them many, many hours of time by simply just identifying today's best practices. So I think that would be very helpful.

 

Nick Giambruno (00:45:45) - You can find all that at Financial underground.com.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:45:49) - Nick Bruno has been super informative. Thanks so much for coming on to the show.

 

Nick Giambruno (00:45:54) - Thank you Keith, great to be with you.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:46:01) - Another Bitcoin criticism is its energy use. Oh, look at all the electricity that mining consumes. What a waste. But the more you learn, you find that Bitcoin miners, they often use stranded energy sources that might not get used otherwise. In fact, miners have an economic incentive to use stranded and low cost energy. Volatility in Bitcoin's price has been a real problem if you want to use it as a currency. The price for one Bitcoin peaked at almost $70,000 in late 2021, and just a year later it was under 16 K, and now the price has swelled up a lot again from that recent low. In any case, if you choose to own Bitcoin or any other crypto, please store it on a cold wallet for security. It's a small device. It's about three times the size of a thumb drive. It looks like a thumb drive, and there is a learning curve that you have to meet in order to use one.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:47:04) - I don't own much gold or bitcoin, just a little. They both have their merits and risks like we've discussed. I'm a real estate guy. Even most gold and bitcoin proponents that I've talked with seem to agree with me that real estate is the proven wealth builder. I'm not sure if we'll ever devote another episode to Bitcoin here. I hope that today's episode at least equipped you to ask better questions, in case you want to know more about it. Today's episode had a more international than usual feel. Bitcoin has no boundaries. I'm in Ecuador and our guest Nick joined us from Argentina today. I'll be back in the US next week when I have some really important real estate trends to tell you about. Until then, I'm Keith Reinhold. Don't quit your daydream.

 

Speaker 7 (00:47:54) - Nothing on this show should be considered specific, personal or professional advice. Please consult an appropriate tax, legal, real estate, financial or business professional for individualized advice. Opinions of guests are their own. Information is not guaranteed. All investment strategies have the potential for profit or loss.

 

Speaker 7 (00:48:09) - The host is operating on behalf of get Rich education LLC exclusively.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:48:22) - The preceding program was brought to you by your home for wealth building. Get rich education.com.

Direct download: GREepisode488_.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 4:00am EDT

Immigrants keep pouring into the US’ southern border. 

How are we going to house them? We’re already millions of housing units undersupplied.

Some migrants get free housing. Yet there are homeless veterans.

Here’s what to expect from more immigration: more rental housing demand, more multigenerational dwellings, more homelessness, higher labor supply.

Get a simple explanation about title insurance.

Our in-house Investment Coach, Naresh, joins us with a real estate market update. 

Two popular investment markets are Memphis BRRRRs and Florida new-builds.

He provides free coaching at GREmarketplace.com.

Timestamps:

The immigrant crisis worsens (00:00:01)

Discussion on the increasing number of immigrants and the housing shortage crisis in the United States.

Housing supply shortage (00:02:44)

Analysis of the shortage in housing supply, estimated to be around 4 million units, and the decline in available housing units.

Impact of immigration on housing demand (00:05:07)

Forecasted impacts of immigration on housing demand and the expected population growth due to immigration.

Challenges and solutions for housing immigrants (00:09:03)

Discussion on the challenges of housing immigrants and potential solutions, including easing construction restrictions and promoting the building of entry-level housing.

Title insurance explained (00:17:29)

Explanation of title insurance, its types, and its significance in real estate transactions.

Update on property manager's situation (00:15:08)

An update on the property manager's situation involving stolen rent payments and the tenant's agreement to compensate for the loss.

Mortgage rates and inflation (00:21:52)

Discussion on the current mortgage rates and their correlation with inflation, as well as predictions for future rate movements.

Mortgage Rates and Fed's Strategy (00:22:54)

Discussion on the impact of the Fed's decision to hold rates and its potential effect on mortgage rates.

Incentives and Real Estate Markets (00:25:08)

Explanation of incentives offered in Memphis and Florida real estate markets, including the BR method and new build properties.

Real Estate Investment Strategies (00:29:04)

Comparison of the Memphis BR method and Florida new build as investment strategies, emphasizing the benefits of each approach.

Property Investment Insights (00:32:16)

Discussion on the impact of property ownership and the potential for life-changing outcomes through real estate investment.

Economic Uncertainty and Real Estate (00:37:07)

Anticipation of potential economic volatility and its impact on real estate investment decisions, emphasizing the stability of real estate during uncertain times.

Resources mentioned:

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GetRichEducation.com/487

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or e-mail: info@RidgeLendingGroup.com

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Will you please leave a review for the show? I’d be grateful. Search “how to leave an Apple Podcasts review” 

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@keithweinhold

 

Complete episode transcript:

 

Keith Weinhold (00:00:01) - Welcome to GRE. I'm your host, Keith Weinhold. Hold. The immigrant crisis worsens. Where are we going? To house all these people. A simple explainer on what title insurance is. Then where do you find the best real estate deals in this market today on get Rich education. If you like the get Rich education podcast, you're going to love our Don't Quit Your Daydream newsletter. No, I here I write every word of the letter myself. It wires your mind for wealth. It helps you make money in your sleep and updates you on vital real estate investing trends. It's free! Sign up and get rich education.com/letter. It's real content that makes a real difference in your life, spiced with a dash of humor. Rather than living below your means, learn how to grow your means right now. You can also easily get the letter by texting gray to 66866. Text gray to 66866.

 

Speaker 2 (00:01:06) - You're listening to the show that has created more financial freedom than nearly any show in the world. This is get rich education.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:01:22) - Welcome to jewelry heard in 188 world nations from Lima, Ohio to Lima, Peru. I'm your host, Keith Weinhold. Get rich education founder, Forbes Real Estate Council member and longtime real estate investor. Our mission here. Let's provide people with good housing, help abolish the term slumlord and get paid five ways at the same time. Immigrants keep pouring into our southern border. In fact, federal agents encountered roughly 2.5 million migrants there just last year alone. Now, though, not all will become permanent residents. Understand? 2.5 million. That's the population of the city proper of Chicago or Houston. All in just one year. How are we going to house all these migrants? This crisis has only worsened in that 2.5 million migrants in a year figure is, according to US Customs and Border Protection data. Now, understand first that America has about 140 million existing housing units. That's what we're dealing with today. By every estimate out there, we already have a housing shortage. The layperson on the street knows that and estimates about its magnitude.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:02:44) - I mean, they're all over the map, some as high is America is already 7 million housing units undersupplied in order to house our current population. And you have other estimates as low is that we're only 1.5 million housing units. Undersupplied. So let's interpolate and kind of be conservative, or just use a figure closer to a common consensus and say that we are 4 million housing units. Undersupplied. All right. But if that's our given, here's what that means. 4 million housing units undersupplied to merely reach a balanced housing supply, we'd need to build enough homes to meet population growth, plus 400,000 on top of that. And we'd have to do that every single year for an entire decade. Just astounding. And to be clear, that's not to be oversupplied with housing. That's just to reach an equilibrium between supply and demand. Now, the supply of available housing, and this is basically what I'm going to talk about next, is the number of homes for sale at any given time, right. That began gradually descending in 2016.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:04:02) - And back then it was one and a half to 2 million available units. And in the spring of 2020, like I've talked about before, the housing supply just crashed to well below 1 million, and it still hasn't gotten up from its mighty fall. In fact, it's only about 700,000 units available today. All right, that is the Fred active listing count and Fred's sources there. Statistics from Realtor.com. All right, so that's what we're dealing with. That's a dire situation. All right, well, how do housing starts? Look, are we building up out of the ground enough to maybe start getting a handle on this sometime in the next decade? I mean, is there anything that could be more encouraging than more housing starts? Well, really, there's nothing encouraging there at all. In fact, new housing construction starts have hit a ten month low. My gosh. So that's the supply side. All right. What about the housing demand side? Well America's population grew by 1.6 to 1.8 million people between 2022 and 2023.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:05:07) - And that number is forecast to climb during the next few years, worsening the housing shortage crisis. And with US births falling and deaths rising, it's immigration, immigration is what is going to fuel the majority of population growth for the next decade. Immigrant related growth that is going to impact local housing markets across the country. And it's expected to hit especially hard in the northeast, Florida, California, Nevada and Texas. And what's happening is outraging some people. Some cities are housing migrants in public places, even arenas, including ones that Texas Governor Greg Abbott has bused to the northeast. And, of course, New York City Mayor Eric Adams has been outspoken about how to handle the migrant crisis. Understand that there are homeless veterans out there in America, yet the state of Maine is giving migrants up to two years of free rent for new apartments. In that right there has made a lot of people. And there are a lot of other cases out there like that of migrants getting free housing. Now, just consider this John Burroughs research and consulting.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:06:31) - They provide a lot of good information to the real estate market, and they have for a long time credit to them. And by the way, if you'd like us to invite John Burns onto the show here or if you have any other comments or questions or concerns, feel free to write into us through get Rich education. Com slash contact. So you can send either an email or leave a voice message. Well, according to their industry respected data, some of which is compiled through the US Census Bureau back in 2021, that's when we reached an inflection point where the US population grew more through immigration than it did through natural increase in natural change. That is simply the births minus deaths, and that is continued each year since there is more US population growth through immigration than there is through natural increase. In fact, bring it up to last year, our population grew by 1.1 million through immigration and just 500,000 through natural increase, more than double more than double the increase through immigration as natural change. And John Burns makes the forecast through the year 2033.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:07:47) - So the next nine years, the growth through immigration will outstrip that some more and become double to triple that of natural growth overall. Every single year through 2033, we'll add 1.7 to 2 million Americans. And they all need to be housed somewhere. So the bottom line here is that immigration fueled growth already outstrips natural growth. And that should continue and only be weighted more heavily toward immigrants every single year for the next decade, probably beyond the next decade. We just don't have projections that far yet. Well, how are you going to house all these people when we're already badly undersupplied and understand I'm not making any judgments on saying who or who should not be able to enter our nation. That is for someone else to decide. And in fact, I'm the descendant of immigrants. They're my ancestors. And you may very well be too. And over the long term, immigrants can be an asset. I am simply here asking where and how are we going to house them for the next decade and what that means to you.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:09:03) - Tiny homes, 3D printed homes, shipping container homes none of them seem to be the answer. And of course, population forecasts. When you look out in the future like that, they're going to vary based on the percentage of successful asylum seekers in the 2024 presidential election winner, and more. So, the figures that I shared with you, they are only the average case. In any case, the crisis is poised to worsen because now you've seen that there is a terrible mismatch between population growth and housing starts. How are you going to solve this? The government needs to ease construction restrictions and promote the building of entry level housing. More up zoning should be allowed. Do you know what up zoning is? It means just what it sounds like increasing the housing density, often by building taller buildings. So up zoning is taller building heights. All right. Well let's look at really.

 

Speaker 3 (00:10:02) - Four.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:10:03) - Big impacts that this immigration wave is having on America's already scarce supply of housing. New immigrants typically rent property. They don't buy property.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:10:16) - So that's higher rental housing demand. Secondly, expect more multigenerational and family oriented dwellings. That's what's needed with additional bedrooms and affordable price points like entry level single family rentals. If you want to own rental property, that right there is the spot for durable demand. And thirdly, I'm sorry, another impact is expect to see more homeless people in your community like I've touched on before. In fact, homelessness is already up 12% year over year. That's partly due to inflation, and that is already the biggest jump. Since these point in time surveys have been used. The biggest ever jump in homelessness are ready. Those stats only go back to 2007. That's when they begin measuring it. And that's according to HUD and federal officials. And then the fourth and final impact of all this immigration is that builders and manufacturers will probably see a small uptick in labor availability these next. Few years. Okay, that part could help. America could help with this labor shortage crunch. But all the other major impacts put more demand and strain on what's already a paucity of American housing supply.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:11:36) - And the bottom line is that there are too many people competing for too little housing, driving up prices and driving up rents this decade. I've been talking about lots of people moving north across borders. Me, I've recently moved south across borders, though for only a few weeks here. I'm joining you from here in Medellin, Colombia today, where in between doing my real estate research here, I'll be trekking in the Colombian Andes this week and the Ecuadorian Andes next week, when I'll be based in Ecuador's national capital of Quito. And, you know, there's a real estate lesson in this itself. Really? Okay, me traveling to Colombia and Ecuador, people often label and mischaracterize areas that they haven't been to or say they hear of the drug trade in Colombia or of some of the more recent, I guess, civil unrest in Ecuador, where I'll be next week. And they think, sheesh, isn't it dangerous in those places? Oh come on, I mean, sheesh, Colombia is a nation of 52 million people and it's almost twice the size of Texas.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:12:44) - The question is where? Where in Colombia do you think is dangerous? Don't you expect there would be great variability there? Now you the great listener. You're smarter than the average American. So I think that you get it with last month's continued civil uprising in Ecuador, seeing that story in the news that actually reminded me to book a trip there, the opposite of staying away when they held up all the people at that TV station that was way out in Guayaquil, Ecuador. To tie in the real estate lesson here. Back to your home nation. If you do live in the US or wherever you live like I do, see our investment coach, Andrea. She moved from Georgia to the Detroit Metro a couple of years ago. I don't think you'd want to invest in real estate in Andrea's neighborhood, where she lives in Detroit, because it's too nice. The property prices are high and the numbers wouldn't work for you in an upper end neighborhood of metro Detroit. But people that haven't been to Detroit don't think about areas being too ritzy for investment.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:13:49) - Well, of course, some of the areas are. Some of my point is, stereotypes are hard to shake. I encourage you to get out and see the world now. I've got an interesting and really an unlikely update on my property manager that had the tenant rent payments stolen from his drop box, meaning I didn't get paid the rent. The property manager, he didn't make good on that and pay me the rent. He wanted me to take the loss from the rent payment that he failed to secure from the paper money order stolen from his overnight drop box. So the manager doesn't want to take the loss. I don't want to take the loss well, and I can hardly believe this, but apparently the tenant has agreed to make the property manager hold. The tenant would effectively pay rent twice for that month, and then the property manager will apparently finally pay me the missing rent after it flows through him. The manager. I don't know if the property manager had to convince the tenant that it's the tenant's responsibility to put the payment right into the manager's hands, or what? So the tenant, what they're going to do is pay an extra $200 a month until the $1,950 stolen rent is compensated, I guess what, eight months of stepped up rent.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:15:08) - And so I was just really surprised that the tenant would agree to do that. And, you know, in this saga that I've been describing to you for, I guess, the third week in a row now, you know, one Jerry listener, they asked me something like, doesn't your property manager know that you're rather influential in the real estate world? Like thinking maybe I'd get preferential treatment? Oh, to that I say, no, I don't want preferential treatment. I mean, few things are more annoying in society than people that position themselves like that. But I will tell you that I actually did meet this property manager in person before he started managing my properties, and he did wear a suit and tie in the conference room for meeting me, which I thought was interesting. Later today on the show, we've got a guest that's familiar to you. He was somewhat bearish on real estate when he was here with us back in November. That's when he talked about how activity was slow, and you might even want to sit on the sidelines of adding more property to your portfolio.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:16:10) - We'll see if that's changed today. Now over on YouTube, you might very much like watching me in our explained. Video series because in a video format, I can show you where the numbers come from at. Very simply, break down an investing term like net worth for one video or cash flow, or your return on amortization in another one. There's also a new video in our explained series about title insurance, and this is what you'll hear over there. The title to a house is the document that proves that the owner owns it. Without that proof, the house can't be bought or sold, and title insurance is written by title insurance companies. What a title insurance company does is research the history of the house to see if there are any complications, also known as clouds, in its ownership issues that cloud the title could be like an outstanding old mortgage that the prospective seller has on the property. A previous deed that wasn't signed or wasn't written correctly and unresolved legal debt or a levy by a creditor, like an old lien placed by a contractor who once did some work on the windows and was never paid for it.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:17:29) - They're all examples of clouds on a title, and make transferring the property ownership difficult or impossible. But if the title appears to be clean, no clouds, then the title insurer writes a policy promising to cover the expenses of correcting any title problems if they would happen to get discovered after the sale. Title companies may refuse to insure a clouded title to be transferred, so it's important to know about any potential issues as soon as possible. Now there are two types of title insurance. There is lender's title insurance and owner's title insurance. First, lenders title insurance. In most areas of the country, the mortgage lender requires that the property buyer purchase a lender title insurance policy to protect the lender's security interest in the real estate. Lender's title insurance is issued in the amount of the mortgage loan and the amount of coverage decreases and finally disappears as the mortgage loan is paid off. And then secondly, owner's title insurance. It protects the homebuyers interest and is normally issued in the amount of the purchase price of the property. Coverage means that the insurer will pay all valid claims on the title as insured, and in most real estate transactions, separate title policies are purchased for the lender and the buyer, and although it can vary by location, the buyer typically purchases the policy for the lender, whereas the seller often pays for the policy for the buyer.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:19:12) - And that's title insurance, if you like. Simple to the point education by video like that, and you'd want to get a really good look at me for some inexplicable reason. Uh, for more, check out the new explained series. It is now on our get Rich education YouTube channel or next. I'm Keith Reinhold, you're listening to get Rich education. Render this a specific expert with income property you need. Ridge lending Group Nmls 42056. In gray history, from beginners to veterans, they provided our listeners with more mortgages than anyone. It's where I get my own loans for single family rentals up to four Plex's. Start your pre-qualification and chat with President Charlie Ridge personally. They'll even customize a plan tailored to you for growing your portfolio. Start at Ridge Lending group.com Ridge lending group.com. You know, I'll just tell you, for the most passive part of my real estate investing, personally, I put my own dollars with Freedom Family Investments because their funds pay me a stream of regular cash flow in returns are better than a bank savings account up to 12%.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:20:35) - Their minimums are as low as 25 K. You don't even need to be accredited for some of them. It's all backed by real estate and that kind of love. How the tax benefit of doing this can offset capital gains and your W-2 jobs income. And they've always given me exactly their stated return paid on time. So it's steady income, no surprises while I'm sleeping or just doing the things I love. For a little insider tip, I've invested in their power fund to get going on that text family to 66866. Oh, and this isn't a solicitation. If you want to invest where I do, just go ahead and text family to six, six eight, six, six.

 

Speaker 4 (00:21:21) - Anybody? It's Robert Elms with a Real Estate Guys radio program. So glad you found Keith White old and get rich education. Don't quit your day dream.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:21:40) - Hey. Well, I'd like to welcome in someone that you might have met by now. That is one of our terrific investment coaches. Narration. The race. Hey, welcome back onto the show.

 

Naresh Vissa (00:21:49) - Keith. It's a pleasure to be back on race.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:21:52) - I know you've got mortgage rates on your mind. It's been such an interesting topic lately, since they peaked at about 8% back in October of 2023, and almost everyone this year anticipates that now that embedded inflation is lower, that rates of all types are going to fall, rates in inflation are typically correlated. And why don't you talk to us with your thoughts about where mortgage rates are currently and where they go from here?

 

Naresh Vissa (00:22:19) - Like you said, mortgage rates peaked around October. The fed did their last rate hike in July 2023, so that's why the lagging effect caused rates to rise a little. And then they've been slowly creeping down since October. And what does that mean? Or where do we go from here in this new year 2024? I've been pretty spot on with what the Fed's going to do. I think they made some mistakes. I think they should have done 2 or 3 more 25 basis point hikes in 2023 because we're seeing inflation creep back up.

 

Naresh Vissa (00:22:54) - And that's a huge problem for the fed because their target is 2%. But that's a completely different topic. We get Monday morning quarterback the fed all we want. The fed has essentially come out and said that their rate hiking campaign is over. They've hiked enough and it's a take it or leave it. They're just going to hold and hold and hold until inflation reaches that 2% target. So what does that mean for mortgage rates? If we know that the fed isn't going to raise rates anymore, that means we are. We've already seen it. Mortgage rates have slowly creeped down. And there is a legitimate chance that the inflation rate that the CPI hits 2% by this summer, there is a chance of that. Right now we're at 3.3 or 3.4%, but there is a good chance that by the end of this summer, let's say August, we hit that 2% target, which means the fed will immediately start cutting rates after that whenever the next meeting is, I think September 2024, they'll start cutting rates, which means that's going to have an effect on mortgage rates.

 

Naresh Vissa (00:24:00) - We can see mortgage rates plummet even more later this year going into 2025. Now, this is just a prediction. There's a chance that inflation could go up if there is a middle East crisis or World War three or whatever you want to call it, there's a chance that inflation spikes back up and the fed just they could hold rates where they are for two years. I don't have a crystal ball in front of me. There was a black swan event that happened in 2020. Obviously, there could be a black swan event that happens in 2024. We won't know. But what we do know is the fed is done hiking rates and they're going to hold as long as possible until we get to that 2% inflation target. What does that mean for real estate? If mortgage rates are going back down, you're getting a better deal today than you were in October 2023 or November 2023. So it's almost 100 basis points lower from the peak that we saw in October. So interest rates have gone down. They've somewhat normalized to a level that digestible for investors, still not quite digestible for the average homeowner.

 

Naresh Vissa (00:25:08) - And the best part about this, Keith, is that the providers who we work with are still offering amazing incentives, the same amazing incentives, if not better, with the lower interest rates. So previously we brought up a 5.75% interest rate incentive program, one year free property management, another program that was two two for two years of free property management, 2% closing cost credit, $4,000 property management credit, all sorts of incentives. And those incentives are still in play while interest rates have gone down. So instead of 5.75% incentive that these providers are offering, they're now offering 4.5% interest rate. So that's why I think if there were no incentives, hey, you know what? We should probably wait until the fed starts cutting again. But with these incentives, this is incredible because they're going to be gone again the moment the fed starts cutting aggressively. These incentives are all gone. So you may as well get in. Now when home values have somewhat corrected and some markets are seeing precipitous declines, home value declines, real estate declines.

 

Naresh Vissa (00:26:20) - So right now it's still an excellent time to invest. Given this economic landscape.

 

Keith Weinhold (00:26:26) - Gray listeners are pretty savvy. And you the listener, you realize that changes in the fed funds rate don't have a direct change, and they don't move in lockstep with the 30 year fixed rate mortgages. The fed has really loaded up with the fed funds rate near 5%. Now they basically have a whole lot of ammo in the cartridge where they can go ahead and lower rates if the economy begins to get into trouble. One reason mortgage rates are higher than other long term rates is that US mortgages can be prepaid without any penalty. The anomaly in what's been different and what's been happening here is that typically there's a spread of about 1.75% between the ten year note, which has been 4% or so recently. And the 30 year mortgage rate is about 1.75% higher, which. She would put it at 5.75, but instead mortgage rates have been almost 7%. So a greater than usual h